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Sample records for incidence function model

  1. Dynamic prediction of cumulative incidence functions by direct binomial regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grand, Mia K; de Witte, Theo J M; Putter, Hein

    2018-03-25

    In recent years there have been a series of advances in the field of dynamic prediction. Among those is the development of methods for dynamic prediction of the cumulative incidence function in a competing risk setting. These models enable the predictions to be updated as time progresses and more information becomes available, for example when a patient comes back for a follow-up visit after completing a year of treatment, the risk of death, and adverse events may have changed since treatment initiation. One approach to model the cumulative incidence function in competing risks is by direct binomial regression, where right censoring of the event times is handled by inverse probability of censoring weights. We extend the approach by combining it with landmarking to enable dynamic prediction of the cumulative incidence function. The proposed models are very flexible, as they allow the covariates to have complex time-varying effects, and we illustrate how to investigate possible time-varying structures using Wald tests. The models are fitted using generalized estimating equations. The method is applied to bone marrow transplant data and the performance is investigated in a simulation study. © 2018 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  2. The stochastic resonance for the incidence function model of metapopulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jiang-Cheng; Dong, Zhi-Wei; Zhou, Ruo-Wei; Li, Yun-Xian; Qian, Zhen-Wei

    2017-06-01

    A stochastic model with endogenous and exogenous periodicities is proposed in this paper on the basis of metapopulation dynamics to model the crop yield losses due to pests and diseases. The rationale is that crop yield losses occur because the physiology of the growing crop is negatively affected by pests and diseases in a dynamic way over time as crop both grows and develops. Metapopulation dynamics can thus be used to model the resultant crop yield losses. The stochastic metapopulation process is described by using the Simplified Incidence Function model (IFM). Compared to the original IFMs, endogenous and exogenous periodicities are considered in the proposed model to handle the cyclical patterns observed in pest infestations, diseases epidemics, and exogenous affecting factors such as temperature and rainfalls. Agricultural loss data in China are used to fit the proposed model. Experimental results demonstrate that: (1) Model with endogenous and exogenous periodicities is a better fit; (2) When the internal system fluctuations and external environmental fluctuations are negatively correlated, EIL or the cost of loss is monotonically increasing; when the internal system fluctuations and external environmental fluctuations are positively correlated, an outbreak of pests and diseases might occur; (3) If the internal system fluctuations and external environmental fluctuations are positively correlated, an optimal patch size can be identified which will greatly weaken the effects of external environmental influence and hence inhibit pest infestations and disease epidemics.

  3. Incident Duration Modeling Using Flexible Parametric Hazard-Based Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruimin Li

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Assessing and prioritizing the duration time and effects of traffic incidents on major roads present significant challenges for road network managers. This study examines the effect of numerous factors associated with various types of incidents on their duration and proposes an incident duration prediction model. Several parametric accelerated failure time hazard-based models were examined, including Weibull, log-logistic, log-normal, and generalized gamma, as well as all models with gamma heterogeneity and flexible parametric hazard-based models with freedom ranging from one to ten, by analyzing a traffic incident dataset obtained from the Incident Reporting and Dispatching System in Beijing in 2008. Results show that different factors significantly affect different incident time phases, whose best distributions were diverse. Given the best hazard-based models of each incident time phase, the prediction result can be reasonable for most incidents. The results of this study can aid traffic incident management agencies not only in implementing strategies that would reduce incident duration, and thus reduce congestion, secondary incidents, and the associated human and economic losses, but also in effectively predicting incident duration time.

  4. Analysis of an SEIR Epidemic Model with Saturated Incidence and Saturated Treatment Function

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinhong Zhang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The dynamics of SEIR epidemic model with saturated incidence rate and saturated treatment function are explored in this paper. The basic reproduction number that determines disease extinction and disease survival is given. The existing threshold conditions of all kinds of the equilibrium points are obtained. Sufficient conditions are established for the existence of backward bifurcation. The local asymptotical stability of equilibrium is verified by analyzing the eigenvalues and using the Routh-Hurwitz criterion. We also discuss the global asymptotical stability of the endemic equilibrium by autonomous convergence theorem. The study indicates that we should improve the efficiency and enlarge the capacity of the treatment to control the spread of disease. Numerical simulations are presented to support and complement the theoretical findings.

  5. Functional Time Series Models to Estimate Future Age-Specific Breast Cancer Incidence Rates for Women in Karachi, Pakistan

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Farah Yasmeen[1; Sidra Zaheer[2

    2014-01-01

    Background: Breast cancer is the most common female cancer in Pakistan. The incidence of breast cancer in Pakistan is about 2.5 times higher than that in the neighboring countries India and Iran. In Karachi, the most populated city of Pakistan, the age-standardized rate of breast cancer was 69.1 per 100,000 women during 1998-2002, which is the highest recorded rate in Asia. The carcinoma of breast in Pakistan is an enormous public health concern. In this study, we examined the recent trends of breast cancer incidence rates among the women in Karachi. Methods: We obtained the secondary data of breast cancer incidence from various hospitals. They included Jinnah Hospital, KIRAN (Karachi Institute of Radiotherapy and Nuclear Medicine), and Civil hospital, where the data were available for the years 2004-2011. A total of 5331 new cases of female breast cancer were registered during this period. We analyzed the data in 5-year age groups 15-19, 20-24, 25-29, 30-34, 35-39, 40-44, 45-49, 50-54, 55-59, 60-64, 65-69, 70-74, 75+. Nonparametric smoothing were used to obtained age-specific incidence curves, and then the curves are decomposed using principal components analysis to fit FTS (functional time series) model. We then used exponential smoothing statspace models to estimate the forecasts of incidence curve and construct prediction intervals. Results: The breast cancer incidence rates in Karachi increased with age for all available years. The rates increased monotonically and are relatively sharp with the age from 15 years to 50 years and then they show variability after the age of 50 years. 10-year forecasts for the female breast cancer incidence rates in Karachi show that the future rates are expected to remain stable for the age-groups 15-50 years, but they will increase for the females of 50-years and over. Hence in future, the newly diagnosed breast cancer cases in the older women in Karachi are expected to increase. Conclusion: Prediction of age

  6. Sense of life worth living (ikigai) and incident functional disability in elderly Japanese: The Tsurugaya Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mori, Kentaro; Kaiho, Yu; Tomata, Yasutake; Narita, Mamoru; Tanji, Fumiya; Sugiyama, Kemmyo; Sugawara, Yumi; Tsuji, Ichiro

    2017-04-01

    To test the hypothesis that elderly persons who feel ikigai (a sense of life worth living) have a lower risk of incident functional disability than those who do not. Recent studies have suggested that ikigai impacts on mortality. However, its impact upon disability is unknown. The aim of the present study was to investigate the association between ikigai and incident functional disability among elderly persons. We conducted a prospective cohort study of 830 Japanese elderly persons aged ≥70 years as a comprehensive geriatric assessment in 2003. Information on ikigai was collected by self-reported questionnaire. Data on functional disability were retrieved from the public Long-term Care Insurance database in which participants were followed up for 11 years. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for incidence of functional disability were calculated for three groups delineated according to the presence of ikigai (“no”, “uncertain” or “yes”) using the Cox proportional hazards regression model. The 11-year incidence of functional disability was 53.3% (442 cases). As compared with the “no” group, the multiple-adjusted HR (95% CI) of incident functional disability was 0.61 (0.36–1.02) for the “uncertain” group and 0.50 (0.30–0.84) for the “yes” group. A stronger degree of ikigai is significantly associated with a lower risk of incident functional disability. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Association of Proteinuria and Incident Atrial Fibrillation in Patients With Intact and Reduced Kidney Function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molnar, Amber O; Eddeen, Anan Bader; Ducharme, Robin; Garg, Amit X; Harel, Ziv; McCallum, Megan K; Perl, Jeffrey; Wald, Ron; Zimmerman, Deborah; Sood, Manish M

    2017-07-06

    Early evidence suggests proteinuria is independently associated with incident atrial fibrillation (AF). We sought to investigate whether the association of proteinuria with incident AF is altered by kidney function. Retrospective cohort study using administrative healthcare databases in Ontario, Canada (2002-2015). A total of 736 666 patients aged ≥40 years not receiving dialysis and with no previous history of AF were included. Proteinuria was defined using the urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) and kidney function by the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). The primary outcome was time to AF. Cox proportional models were used to determine the hazard ratio for AF censored for death, dialysis, kidney transplant, or end of follow-up. Fine and Grey models were used to determine the subdistribution hazard ratio for AF, with death as a competing event. Median follow-up was 6 years and 44 809 patients developed AF. In adjusted models, ACR and eGFR were associated with AF ( P kidney function (ACR × eGFR interaction, P kidney function (adjusted hazard ratios, 4.5 [95% CI, 4.0-5.1] and 2.6 [95% CI, 2.4-2.8], respectively; referent ACR 0 and eGFR 120). Results were similar in competing risk analyses. Proteinuria increases the risk of incident AF markedly in patients with intact kidney function compared with those with decreased kidney function. Screening and preventative strategies should consider proteinuria as an independent risk factor for AF. © 2017 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

  8. The trapping of potassium atoms by a polycrystalline tungsten surface as a function of energy and angle of incidence. ch. 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hurkmans, A.; Overbosch, E.G.; Olander, D.R.; Los, J.

    1976-01-01

    The trapping probability of potassium atoms on a polycrystalline tungsten surface has been measured as a function of the angle of incidence and as a function of the energy of the incoming atoms. Below an energy of 1 eV the trapping was complete; above 20 eV only reflection occurred. The trapping probability increased with increasing angle of incidence. The measurements are compared with a simple model of the fraction of atoms initially trapped. The model, a one-dimensional cube model including a Boltzmann distribution of the velocities of oscillating surface atoms, partially explains the data. The trapping probability as a function of incoming energy is well described for normal incidence, justifying the inclusion of thermal motion of the surface atoms in the model. The angular dependence can be explained in a qualitative way, although there is a substantial discrepancy for large angles of incidence, showing the presence of surface structure. (Auth.)

  9. Improving Agent Based Modeling of Critical Incidents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Till

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Agent Based Modeling (ABM is a powerful method that has been used to simulate potential critical incidents in the infrastructure and built environments. This paper will discuss the modeling of some critical incidents currently simulated using ABM and how they may be expanded and improved by using better physiological modeling, psychological modeling, modeling the actions of interveners, introducing Geographic Information Systems (GIS and open source models.

  10. Dynamic Tax Incidence in a Finite Horizon Model

    OpenAIRE

    Itaya, Jun-ichi

    1992-01-01

    This paper reexamines the problem of long-run tax incidence by using a two-sector growth model in which finitely-lived individuals undertake intertemporal optimizing decisions in the presence of annuity markets. Under a constant relative risk aversion utility function, none of the selective taxes imposed on the consumption goods sector are neutral with respect to the long-run wage/profit ratio even if labor supply is fixed. This result differs significantly both from that of the infinite hori...

  11. [Application of ARIMA model on prediction of malaria incidence].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jing, Xia; Hua-Xun, Zhang; Wen, Lin; Su-Jian, Pei; Ling-Cong, Sun; Xiao-Rong, Dong; Mu-Min, Cao; Dong-Ni, Wu; Shunxiang, Cai

    2016-01-29

    To predict the incidence of local malaria of Hubei Province applying the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (ARIMA). SPSS 13.0 software was applied to construct the ARIMA model based on the monthly local malaria incidence in Hubei Province from 2004 to 2009. The local malaria incidence data of 2010 were used for model validation and evaluation. The model of ARIMA (1, 1, 1) (1, 1, 0) 12 was tested as relatively the best optimal with the AIC of 76.085 and SBC of 84.395. All the actual incidence data were in the range of 95% CI of predicted value of the model. The prediction effect of the model was acceptable. The ARIMA model could effectively fit and predict the incidence of local malaria of Hubei Province.

  12. Phenomenological modelling of second cancer incidence for radiation treatment planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pfaffenberger, Asja; Oelfke, Uwe; Schneider, Uwe; Poppe, Bjoern

    2009-01-01

    It is still an unanswered question whether a relatively low dose of radiation to a large volume or a higher dose to a small volume produces the higher cancer incidence. This is of interest in view of modalities like IMRT or rotation therapy where high conformity to the target volume is achieved at the cost of a large volume of normal tissue exposed to radiation. Knowledge of the shape of the dose response for radiation-induced cancer is essential to answer the question of what risk of second cancer incidence is implied by which treatment modality. This study therefore models the dose response for radiation-induced second cancer after radiation therapy of which the exact mechanisms are still unknown. A second cancer risk estimation tool for treatment planning is presented which has the potential to be used for comparison of different treatment modalities, and risk is estimated on a voxel basis for different organs in two case studies. The presented phenomenological model summarises the impact of microscopic biological processes into effective parameters of mutation and cell sterilisation. In contrast to other models, the effective radiosensitivities of mutated and non-mutated cells are allowed to differ. Based on the number of mutated cells present after irradiation, the model is then linked to macroscopic incidence by summarising model parameters and modifying factors into natural cancer incidence and the dose response in the lower-dose region. It was found that all principal dose-response functions discussed in the literature can be derived from the model. However, from the investigation and due to scarcity of adequate data, rather vague statements about likelihood of dose-response functions can be made than a definite decision for one response. Based on the predicted model parameters, the linear response can probably be rejected using the dynamics described, but both a flattening response and a decrease appear likely, depending strongly on the effective cell

  13. Widowhood Fantasies: Incidence, Characteristics, and Potential Function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bear, Roberta Meyer; Flowers, Barbara P.

    Although some people fantasize about their spouse's possible death, the literature contains no reports of research on widowhood fantasies. The incidence, characteristics, and possible function of these fantasies were examined in individual interviews with 28 divorced and married men and women. Interview data were analyzed by calculating chi-square…

  14. Motor function and incident dementia: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kueper, Jacqueline Kathleen; Speechley, Mark; Lingum, Navena Rebecca; Montero-Odasso, Manuel

    2017-09-01

    cognitive and mobility decline are interrelated processes, whereby mobility decline coincides or precedes the onset of cognitive decline. to assess whether there is an association between performance on motor function tests and incident dementia. electronic database, grey literature and hand searching identified studies testing for associations between baseline motor function and incident dementia in older adults. of 2,540 potentially relevant documents, 37 met the final inclusion criteria and were reviewed qualitatively. Three meta-analyses were conducted using data from 10 studies. Three main motor domains-upper limb motor function, parkinsonism and lower limb motor function-emerged as associated with increased risk of incident dementia. Studies including older adults without neurological overt disease found a higher risk of incident dementia associated with poorer performance on composite motor function scores, balance and gait velocity (meta-analysis pooled HR = 1.94, 95% CI: 1.41, 2.65). Mixed results were found across different study samples for upper limb motor function, overall parkinsonism (meta-analysis pooled OR = 3.05, 95% CI: 1.31, 7.08), bradykinesia and rigidity. Studies restricted to older adults with Parkinson's Disease found weak or no association with incident dementia even for motor domains highly associated in less restrictive samples. Tremor was not associated with an increased risk of dementia in any population (meta-analysis pooled HR = 0.80, 95% CI 0.31, 2.03). lower limb motor function was associated with increased risk of developing dementia, while tremor and hand grip strength were not. Our results support future research investigating the inclusion of quantitative motor assessment, specifically gait velocity tests, for clinical dementia risk evaluation. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Geriatrics Society.All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com

  15. Predicting Cumulative Incidence Probability: Marginal and Cause-Specific Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scheike, Thomas H.; Zhang, Mei-Jie

    2005-01-01

    cumulative incidence probability; cause-specific hazards; subdistribution hazard; binomial modelling......cumulative incidence probability; cause-specific hazards; subdistribution hazard; binomial modelling...

  16. Pelvic incidence variation among individuals: functional influence versus genetic determinism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Hong-Fang; Zhao, Chang-Qing

    2018-03-20

    Pelvic incidence has become one of the most important sagittal parameters in spinal surgery. Despite its great importance, pelvic incidence can vary from 33° to 85° in the normal population. The reasons for this great variability in pelvic incidence remain unexplored. The objective of this article is to present some possible interpretations for the great variability in pelvic incidence under both normal and pathological conditions and to further understand the determinants of pelvic incidence from the perspective of the functional requirements for bipedalism and genetic backgrounds via a literature review. We postulate that both pelvic incidence and pelvic morphology may be genetically predetermined, and a great variability in pelvic incidence may already exist even before birth. This great variability may also serve as a further reminder that the sagittal profile, bipedal locomotion mode, and genetic background of every individual are unique and specific, and clinicians should avoid making universally applying broad generalizations of pelvic incidence. Although PI is an important parameter and there are many theories behind its variability, we still do not have clear mechanistic answers.

  17. Asymmetric diffusion model for oblique-incidence reflectometry

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yaqin Chen; Liji Cao; Liqun Sun

    2011-01-01

    A diffusion theory model induced by a line source distribution is presented for oblique-incidence reflectom-etry. By fitting to this asymmetric diffusion model, the absorption and reduced scattering coefficients μa and μ's of the turbid medium can both be determined with accuracy of 10% from the absolute profile of the diffuse reflectance in the incident plane at the negative position -1.5 transport mean free path (mfp') away from the incident point; particularly, μ's can be estimated from the data at positive positions within 0-1.0 mfp' with 10% accuracy. The method is verified by Monte Carlo simulations and experimentally tested on a phantom.%A diffusion theory model induced by a line source distribution is presented for oblique-incidence reflectometry.By fitting to this asymmetric diffusion model,the absorption and reduced scattering coefficients μa and μ's of the turbid medium can both be determined with accuracy of 10% from the absolute profile of the diffuse reflectance in the incident plane at the negative position -1.5 transport mean free path (mfp')away from the incident point;particularly,μ's can be estimated from the data at positive positions within 0-1.0 mfp' with 10% accuracy.The method is verified by Monte Carlo simulations and experimentally tested on a phantom.Knowledge about the optical properties,including the absorption coefficient (μa) and the reduced scattering coefficient (μ's =μs(1-g)),where μs is the scattering coefficient and g is the anisotropy factor of scattering,of biological tissues plays an important role for optical therapeutic and diagnostic techniques in medicine.

  18. Complex dynamics of an SEIR epidemic model with saturated incidence rate and treatment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Muhammad Altaf; Khan, Yasir; Islam, Saeed

    2018-03-01

    In this paper, we describe the dynamics of an SEIR epidemic model with saturated incidence, treatment function, and optimal control. Rigorous mathematical results have been established for the model. The stability analysis of the model is investigated and found that the model is locally asymptotically stable when R0 1. The proposed model may possess a backward bifurcation. The optimal control problem is designed and obtained their necessary results. Numerical results have been presented for justification of theoretical results.

  19. Modeling the relationship between precipitation and malaria incidence in children from a holoendemic area in Ghana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krefis, Anne Caroline; Schwarz, Norbert Georg; Krüger, Andreas; Fobil, Julius; Nkrumah, Bernard; Acquah, Samuel; Loag, Wibke; Sarpong, Nimako; Adu-Sarkodie, Yaw; Ranft, Ulrich; May, Jürgen

    2011-02-01

    Climatic factors influence the incidence of vector-borne diseases such as malaria. They modify the abundance of mosquito populations, the length of the extrinsic parasite cycle in the mosquito, the malarial dynamics, and the emergence of epidemics in areas of low endemicity. The objective of this study was to investigate temporal associations between weekly malaria incidence in 1,993 children < 15 years of age and weekly rainfall. A time series analysis was conducted by using cross-correlation function and autoregressive modeling. The regression model showed that the level of rainfall predicted the malaria incidence after a time lag of 9 weeks (mean = 60 days) and after a time lag between one and two weeks. The analyses provide evidence that high-resolution precipitation data can directly predict malaria incidence in a highly endemic area. Such models might enable the development of early warning systems and support intervention measures.

  20. Prevalence Incidence Mixture Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    The R package and webtool fits Prevalence Incidence Mixture models to left-censored and irregularly interval-censored time to event data that is commonly found in screening cohorts assembled from electronic health records. Absolute and relative risk can be estimated for simple random sampling, and stratified sampling (the two approaches of superpopulation and a finite population are supported for target populations). Non-parametric (absolute risks only), semi-parametric, weakly-parametric (using B-splines), and some fully parametric (such as the logistic-Weibull) models are supported.

  1. A new, accurate predictive model for incident hypertension

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Völzke, Henry; Fung, Glenn; Ittermann, Till

    2013-01-01

    Data mining represents an alternative approach to identify new predictors of multifactorial diseases. This work aimed at building an accurate predictive model for incident hypertension using data mining procedures.......Data mining represents an alternative approach to identify new predictors of multifactorial diseases. This work aimed at building an accurate predictive model for incident hypertension using data mining procedures....

  2. Accident Analysis and Barrier Function (AEB) Method. Manual for Incident Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Svenson, Ola

    2000-02-01

    The Accident Analysis and Barrier Function (AEB) Method models an accident or incident as a series of interactions between human and technical systems. In the sequence of human and technical errors leading to an accident there is, in principle, a possibility to arrest the development between each two successive errors. This can be done by a barrier function which, for example, can stop an operator from making an error. A barrier function can be performed by one or several barrier function systems. To illustrate, a mechanical system, a computer system or another operator can all perform a given barrier function to stop an operator from making an error. The barrier function analysis consists of analysis of suggested improvements, the effectiveness of the improvements, the costs of implementation, probability of implementation, the cost of maintaining the barrier function, the probability that maintenance will be kept up to standards and the generalizability of the suggested improvement. The AEB method is similar to the US method called HPES, but differs from that method in different ways. To exemplify, the AEB method has more emphasis on technical errors than HPES. In contrast to HPES that describes a series of events, the AEB method models only errors. This gives a more focused analysis making it well suited for checking other HPES-type accident analyses. However, the AEB method is a generic and stand-alone method that has been applied in other fields than nuclear power, such as, in traffic accident analyses

  3. Accident Analysis and Barrier Function (AEB) Method. Manual for Incident Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Svenson, Ola [Stockholm Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Psychology

    2000-02-01

    The Accident Analysis and Barrier Function (AEB) Method models an accident or incident as a series of interactions between human and technical systems. In the sequence of human and technical errors leading to an accident there is, in principle, a possibility to arrest the development between each two successive errors. This can be done by a barrier function which, for example, can stop an operator from making an error. A barrier function can be performed by one or several barrier function systems. To illustrate, a mechanical system, a computer system or another operator can all perform a given barrier function to stop an operator from making an error. The barrier function analysis consists of analysis of suggested improvements, the effectiveness of the improvements, the costs of implementation, probability of implementation, the cost of maintaining the barrier function, the probability that maintenance will be kept up to standards and the generalizability of the suggested improvement. The AEB method is similar to the US method called HPES, but differs from that method in different ways. To exemplify, the AEB method has more emphasis on technical errors than HPES. In contrast to HPES that describes a series of events, the AEB method models only errors. This gives a more focused analysis making it well suited for checking other HPES-type accident analyses. However, the AEB method is a generic and stand-alone method that has been applied in other fields than nuclear power, such as, in traffic accident analyses.

  4. Oblique incidence effects in direct x-ray detectors: A first-order approximation using a physics-based analytical model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Badano, Aldo; Freed, Melanie; Fang Yuan

    2011-01-01

    Purpose: The authors describe the modifications to a previously developed analytical model of indirect CsI:Tl-based detector response required for studying oblique x-ray incidence effects in direct semiconductor-based detectors. This first-order approximation analysis allows the authors to describe the associated degradation in resolution in direct detectors and compare the predictions to the published data for indirect detectors. Methods: The proposed model is based on a physics-based analytical description developed by Freed et al. [''A fast, angle-dependent, analytical model of CsI detector response for optimization of 3D x-ray breast imaging systems,'' Med. Phys. 37(6), 2593-2605 (2010)] that describes detector response functions for indirect detectors and oblique incident x rays. The model, modified in this work to address direct detector response, describes the dependence of the response with x-ray energy, thickness of the transducer layer, and the depth-dependent blur and collection efficiency. Results: The authors report the detector response functions for indirect and direct detector models for typical thicknesses utilized in clinical systems for full-field digital mammography (150 μm for indirect CsI:Tl and 200 μm for a-Se direct detectors). The results suggest that the oblique incidence effect in a semiconductor detector differs from that in indirect detectors in two ways: The direct detector model produces a sharper overall PRF compared to the response corresponding to the indirect detector model for normal x-ray incidence and a larger relative increase in blur along the x-ray incidence direction compared to that found in indirect detectors with respect to the response at normal incidence angles. Conclusions: Compared to the effect seen in indirect detectors, the direct detector model exhibits a sharper response at normal x-ray incidence and a larger relative increase in blur along the x-ray incidence direction with respect to the blur in the

  5. Monte Carlo calculations of ligth-ion sputtering as a function of the incident angle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haggmark, L.G.; Biersack, J.P.

    1980-01-01

    The sputtering of metal surfaces by light ions has been studied as a function of the incident angle using an extension of the TRIM Monte Carlo computer program. Sputtering yields were calculated at both normal and oblique angles of incidence for H, D, T, and 4 He impinging on Ni, Mo, and Au targets with energies <= 10 keV. Direct comparisons are made with the most recent experimental and theoretical results. There is generally good agreement with the experimental data although our calculated maximum in the yield usually occurs at a smaller incident angle, measured from the surface normal. The enhancement of the yield at large incident angles over that at normal incidence is observed to be a complex function of the incident ion's energy and mass and the target's atomic weight and surface binding energy. (orig.)

  6. Variation in Cancer Incidence among Patients with ESRD during Kidney Function and Nonfunction Intervals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yanik, Elizabeth L; Clarke, Christina A; Snyder, Jon J; Pfeiffer, Ruth M; Engels, Eric A

    2016-05-01

    Among patients with ESRD, cancer risk is affected by kidney dysfunction and by immunosuppression after transplant. Assessing patterns across periods of dialysis and kidney transplantation may inform cancer etiology. We evaluated 202,195 kidney transplant candidates and recipients from a linkage between the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients and cancer registries, and compared incidence in kidney function intervals (time with a transplant) with incidence in nonfunction intervals (waitlist or time after transplant failure), adjusting for demographic factors. Incidence of infection-related and immune-related cancer was higher during kidney function intervals than during nonfunction intervals. Incidence was most elevated for Kaposi sarcoma (hazard ratio [HR], 9.1; 95% confidence interval (95% CI), 4.7 to 18), non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (HR, 3.2; 95% CI, 2.8 to 3.7), Hodgkin's lymphoma (HR, 3.0; 95% CI, 1.7 to 5.3), lip cancer (HR, 3.4; 95% CI, 2.0 to 6.0), and nonepithelial skin cancers (HR, 3.8; 95% CI, 2.5 to 5.8). Conversely, ESRD-related cancer incidence was lower during kidney function intervals (kidney cancer: HR, 0.8; 95% CI, 0.7 to 0.8 and thyroid cancer: HR, 0.7; 95% CI, 0.6 to 0.8). With each successive interval, incidence changed in alternating directions for non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, melanoma, and lung, pancreatic, and nonepithelial skin cancers (higher during function intervals), and kidney and thyroid cancers (higher during nonfunction intervals). For many cancers, incidence remained higher than in the general population across all intervals. These data indicate strong short-term effects of kidney dysfunction and immunosuppression on cancer incidence in patients with ESRD, suggesting a need for persistent cancer screening and prevention. Copyright © 2016 by the American Society of Nephrology.

  7. Global stability for infectious disease models that include immigration of infected individuals and delay in the incidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chelsea Uggenti

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available We begin with a detailed study of a delayed SI model of disease transmission with immigration into both classes. The incidence function allows for a nonlinear dependence on the infected population, including mass action and saturating incidence as special cases. Due to the immigration of infectives, there is no disease-free equilibrium and hence no basic reproduction number. We show there is a unique endemic equilibrium and that this equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable for all parameter values. The results include vector-style delay and latency-style delay. Next, we show that previous global stability results for an SEI model and an SVI model that include immigration of infectives and non-linear incidence but not delay can be extended to systems with vector-style delay and latency-style delay.

  8. Smooth semi-nonparametric (SNP) estimation of the cumulative incidence function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duc, Anh Nguyen; Wolbers, Marcel

    2017-08-15

    This paper presents a novel approach to estimation of the cumulative incidence function in the presence of competing risks. The underlying statistical model is specified via a mixture factorization of the joint distribution of the event type and the time to the event. The time to event distributions conditional on the event type are modeled using smooth semi-nonparametric densities. One strength of this approach is that it can handle arbitrary censoring and truncation while relying on mild parametric assumptions. A stepwise forward algorithm for model estimation and adaptive selection of smooth semi-nonparametric polynomial degrees is presented, implemented in the statistical software R, evaluated in a sequence of simulation studies, and applied to data from a clinical trial in cryptococcal meningitis. The simulations demonstrate that the proposed method frequently outperforms both parametric and nonparametric alternatives. They also support the use of 'ad hoc' asymptotic inference to derive confidence intervals. An extension to regression modeling is also presented, and its potential and challenges are discussed. © 2017 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2017 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  9. Fractures and dislocations of the hand in polytrauma patients : Incidence, injury pattern and functional outcome

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ferree, Steven; van der Vliet, Quirine M J; van Heijl, Mark; Houwert, Roderick M; Leenen, Luke P H; Hietbrink, Falco

    INTRODUCTION: Injuries of the hand can cause significant functional impairment, diminished quality of life and delayed return to work. However, the incidence and functional outcome of hand injuries in polytrauma patients is currently unknown. The aim of this study was to determine the incidence,

  10. PREDICTIVE MODELS FOR SUPPORT OF INCIDENT MANAGEMENT PROCESS IN IT SERVICE MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin SARNOVSKY

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT The work presented in this paper is focused on creating of predictive models that help in the process of incident resolution and implementation of IT infrastructure changes to increase the overall support of IT management. Our main objective was to build the predictive models using machine learning algorithms and CRISP-DM methodology. We used the incident and related changes database obtained from the IT environment of the Rabobank Group company, which contained information about the processing of the incidents during the incident management process. We decided to investigate the dependencies between the incident observation on particular infrastructure component and the actual source of the incident as well as the dependency between the incidents and related changes in the infrastructure. We used Random Forests and Gradient Boosting Machine classifiers in the process of identification of incident source as well as in the prediction of possible impact of the observed incident. Both types of models were tested on testing set and evaluated using defined metrics.

  11. Incidence of Pneumothorax in Patients With Lymphangioleiomyomatosis Undergoing Pulmonary Function and Exercise Testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taveira-DaSilva, Angelo M; Julien-Williams, Patricia; Jones, Amanda M; Moss, Joel

    2016-07-01

    Because pneumothorax is frequent in lymphangioleiomyomatosis, patients have expressed concerns regarding the risk of pneumothorax associated with pulmonary function or exercise testing. Indeed, pneumothorax has been reported in patients with lung disease after both of these tests. The aim of this study was to determine the incidence of pneumothorax in patients with lymphangioleiomyomatosis during admissions to the National Institutes of Health Clinical Research Center between 1995 and 2015. Medical records were reviewed to identify patients who had a pneumothorax during their stay at the National Institutes of Health. A total of 691 patients underwent 4,523 pulmonary function tests and 1,900 exercise tests. Three patients developed pneumothorax after pulmonary function tests and/or exercise tests. The incidence of pneumothorax associated with lung function testing was 0.14 to 0.29 of 100 patients or 0.02 to 0.04 of 100 tests. The incidence of pneumothorax in patients undergoing exercise testing was 0.14 to 0.28 of 100 patients or 0.05 to 0.10 of 100 tests. The risk of pneumothorax associated with pulmonary function or exercise testing in patients with lymphangioleiomyomatosis is low. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  12. Sensory and Motor Peripheral Nerve Function and Incident Mobility Disability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ward, R. E.; Boudreau, R. M.; Caserotti, P.

    2014-01-01

    ObjectivesTo assess the relationship between sensorimotor nerve function and incident mobility disability over 10years. DesignProspective cohort study with longitudinal analysis. SettingTwo U.S. clinical sites. ParticipantsPopulation-based sample of community-dwelling older adults with no mobility...

  13. Estimating cardiovascular disease incidence from prevalence: a spreadsheet based model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xue Feng Hu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Disease incidence and prevalence are both core indicators of population health. Incidence is generally not as readily accessible as prevalence. Cohort studies and electronic health record systems are two major way to estimate disease incidence. The former is time-consuming and expensive; the latter is not available in most developing countries. Alternatively, mathematical models could be used to estimate disease incidence from prevalence. Methods We proposed and validated a method to estimate the age-standardized incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD, with prevalence data from successive surveys and mortality data from empirical studies. Hallett’s method designed for estimating HIV infections in Africa was modified to estimate the incidence of myocardial infarction (MI in the U.S. population and incidence of heart disease in the Canadian population. Results Model-derived estimates were in close agreement with observed incidence from cohort studies and population surveillance systems. This method correctly captured the trend in incidence given sufficient waves of cross-sectional surveys. The estimated MI declining rate in the U.S. population was in accordance with the literature. This method was superior to closed cohort, in terms of the estimating trend of population cardiovascular disease incidence. Conclusion It is possible to estimate CVD incidence accurately at the population level from cross-sectional prevalence data. This method has the potential to be used for age- and sex- specific incidence estimates, or to be expanded to other chronic conditions.

  14. Brain function and structure and risk for incident diabetes: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bancks, Michael P; Alonso, Alvaro; Gottesman, Rebecca F; Mosley, Thomas H; Selvin, Elizabeth; Pankow, James S

    2017-12-01

    Diabetes is prospectively associated with cognitive decline. Whether lower cognitive function and worse brain structure are prospectively associated with incident diabetes is unclear. We analyzed data for 10,133 individuals with cognitive function testing (1990-1992) and 1212 individuals with brain magnetic resonance imaging (1993-1994) from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities cohort. We estimated hazard ratios for incident diabetes through 2014 after adjustment for traditional diabetes risk factors and cohort attrition. Higher level of baseline cognitive function was associated with lower risk for diabetes (per 1 standard deviation, hazard ratio = 0.94; 95% confidence interval = 0.90, 0.98). This association did not persist after accounting for baseline glucose level, case ascertainment methods, and cohort attrition. No association was observed between any brain magnetic resonance imaging measure and incident diabetes. This is one of the first studies to prospectively evaluate the association between both cognitive function and brain structure and the incidence of diabetes. Copyright © 2017 the Alzheimer's Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Thyroid function, reduced kidney function and incident chronic kidney disease in a community-based population: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schultheiss, Ulla T; Daya, Natalie; Grams, Morgan E; Seufert, Jochen; Steffes, Michael; Coresh, Josef; Selvin, Elizabeth; Köttgen, Anna

    2017-11-01

    Reduced kidney function is a common public health problem that increases risk for a wide variety of adverse outcomes, making the identification of potentially modifiable factors associated with the development of incident chronic kidney disease (CKD) important. Alterations in the hypothalamic-pituitary-thyroid axis have been linked to reduced kidney function, but the association of thyroid function with the development of incident CKD is largely uncharacterized. Concentrations of thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH), free thyroxine (FT4), triiodothyronine (T3) and thyroid peroxidase antibody (TPOAb) were quantified in 12 785 black and white participants of the ongoing community-based prospective Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study. Thyroid markers and clinical categories of thyroid dysfunction (euthyroidism, combined subclinical and overt hypothyroidism, combined subclinical and overt hyperthyroidism) were also evaluated for their association with reduced kidney function (estimated glomerular filtration rate kidney function at study baseline. The clinical entities hypothyroidism and hyperthyroidism were also associated with higher odds of baseline reduced kidney function, but this was not significant. However, none of the markers of thyroid function nor different clinical categories of thyroid dysfunction (hypothyroidism, hyperthyroidism or TPOAb positivity) were associated with incident CKD in adjusted analyses. Elevated TSH, FT4 and reduced T3 concentrations were associated with reduced kidney function cross-sectionally. The lack of association with the development of incident CKD suggests that altered thyroid function in the general population is not causally related to CKD development, but screening for thyroidal status may be especially relevant in persons with reduced kidney function. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of ERA-EDTA. All rights reserved.

  16. Model variations in predicting incidence of Plasmodium falciparum malaria using 1998-2007 morbidity and meteorological data from south Ethiopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loha, Eskindir; Lindtjørn, Bernt

    2010-06-16

    Malaria transmission is complex and is believed to be associated with local climate changes. However, simple attempts to extrapolate malaria incidence rates from averaged regional meteorological conditions have proven unsuccessful. Therefore, the objective of this study was to determine if variations in specific meteorological factors are able to consistently predict P. falciparum malaria incidence at different locations in south Ethiopia. Retrospective data from 42 locations were collected including P. falciparum malaria incidence for the period of 1998-2007 and meteorological variables such as monthly rainfall (all locations), temperature (17 locations), and relative humidity (three locations). Thirty-five data sets qualified for the analysis. Ljung-Box Q statistics was used for model diagnosis, and R squared or stationary R squared was taken as goodness of fit measure. Time series modelling was carried out using Transfer Function (TF) models and univariate auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) when there was no significant predictor meteorological variable. Of 35 models, five were discarded because of the significant value of Ljung-Box Q statistics. Past P. falciparum malaria incidence alone (17 locations) or when coupled with meteorological variables (four locations) was able to predict P. falciparum malaria incidence within statistical significance. All seasonal AIRMA orders were from locations at altitudes above 1742 m. Monthly rainfall, minimum and maximum temperature was able to predict incidence at four, five and two locations, respectively. In contrast, relative humidity was not able to predict P. falciparum malaria incidence. The R squared values for the models ranged from 16% to 97%, with the exception of one model which had a negative value. Models with seasonal ARIMA orders were found to perform better. However, the models for predicting P. falciparum malaria incidence varied from location to location, and among lagged effects, data

  17. Model variations in predicting incidence of Plasmodium falciparum malaria using 1998-2007 morbidity and meteorological data from south Ethiopia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Loha Eskindir

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Malaria transmission is complex and is believed to be associated with local climate changes. However, simple attempts to extrapolate malaria incidence rates from averaged regional meteorological conditions have proven unsuccessful. Therefore, the objective of this study was to determine if variations in specific meteorological factors are able to consistently predict P. falciparum malaria incidence at different locations in south Ethiopia. Methods Retrospective data from 42 locations were collected including P. falciparum malaria incidence for the period of 1998-2007 and meteorological variables such as monthly rainfall (all locations, temperature (17 locations, and relative humidity (three locations. Thirty-five data sets qualified for the analysis. Ljung-Box Q statistics was used for model diagnosis, and R squared or stationary R squared was taken as goodness of fit measure. Time series modelling was carried out using Transfer Function (TF models and univariate auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA when there was no significant predictor meteorological variable. Results Of 35 models, five were discarded because of the significant value of Ljung-Box Q statistics. Past P. falciparum malaria incidence alone (17 locations or when coupled with meteorological variables (four locations was able to predict P. falciparum malaria incidence within statistical significance. All seasonal AIRMA orders were from locations at altitudes above 1742 m. Monthly rainfall, minimum and maximum temperature was able to predict incidence at four, five and two locations, respectively. In contrast, relative humidity was not able to predict P. falciparum malaria incidence. The R squared values for the models ranged from 16% to 97%, with the exception of one model which had a negative value. Models with seasonal ARIMA orders were found to perform better. However, the models for predicting P. falciparum malaria incidence varied from location

  18. A new, accurate predictive model for incident hypertension.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Völzke, Henry; Fung, Glenn; Ittermann, Till; Yu, Shipeng; Baumeister, Sebastian E; Dörr, Marcus; Lieb, Wolfgang; Völker, Uwe; Linneberg, Allan; Jørgensen, Torben; Felix, Stephan B; Rettig, Rainer; Rao, Bharat; Kroemer, Heyo K

    2013-11-01

    Data mining represents an alternative approach to identify new predictors of multifactorial diseases. This work aimed at building an accurate predictive model for incident hypertension using data mining procedures. The primary study population consisted of 1605 normotensive individuals aged 20-79 years with 5-year follow-up from the population-based study, that is the Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP). The initial set was randomly split into a training and a testing set. We used a probabilistic graphical model applying a Bayesian network to create a predictive model for incident hypertension and compared the predictive performance with the established Framingham risk score for hypertension. Finally, the model was validated in 2887 participants from INTER99, a Danish community-based intervention study. In the training set of SHIP data, the Bayesian network used a small subset of relevant baseline features including age, mean arterial pressure, rs16998073, serum glucose and urinary albumin concentrations. Furthermore, we detected relevant interactions between age and serum glucose as well as between rs16998073 and urinary albumin concentrations [area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC 0.76)]. The model was confirmed in the SHIP validation set (AUC 0.78) and externally replicated in INTER99 (AUC 0.77). Compared to the established Framingham risk score for hypertension, the predictive performance of the new model was similar in the SHIP validation set and moderately better in INTER99. Data mining procedures identified a predictive model for incident hypertension, which included innovative and easy-to-measure variables. The findings promise great applicability in screening settings and clinical practice.

  19. Scrub Typhus Incidence Modeling with Meteorological Factors in South Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwak, Jaewon; Kim, Soojun; Kim, Gilho; Singh, Vijay P; Hong, Seungjin; Kim, Hung Soo

    2015-06-29

    Since its recurrence in 1986, scrub typhus has been occurring annually and it is considered as one of the most prevalent diseases in Korea. Scrub typhus is a 3rd grade nationally notifiable disease that has greatly increased in Korea since 2000. The objective of this study is to construct a disease incidence model for prediction and quantification of the incidences of scrub typhus. Using data from 2001 to 2010, the incidence Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model, which considers the time-lag between scrub typhus and minimum temperature, precipitation and average wind speed based on the Granger causality and spectral analysis, is constructed and tested for 2011 to 2012. Results show reliable simulation of scrub typhus incidences with selected predictors, and indicate that the seasonality in meteorological data should be considered.

  20. Scrub Typhus Incidence Modeling with Meteorological Factors in South Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaewon Kwak

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Since its recurrence in 1986, scrub typhus has been occurring annually and it is considered as one of the most prevalent diseases in Korea. Scrub typhus is a 3rd grade nationally notifiable disease that has greatly increased in Korea since 2000. The objective of this study is to construct a disease incidence model for prediction and quantification of the incidences of scrub typhus. Using data from 2001 to 2010, the incidence Artificial Neural Network (ANN model, which considers the time-lag between scrub typhus and minimum temperature, precipitation and average wind speed based on the Granger causality and spectral analysis, is constructed and tested for 2011 to 2012. Results show reliable simulation of scrub typhus incidences with selected predictors, and indicate that the seasonality in meteorological data should be considered.

  1. Time Series Modelling of Syphilis Incidence in China from 2005 to 2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xingyu; Zhang, Tao; Pei, Jiao; Liu, Yuanyuan; Li, Xiaosong; Medrano-Gracia, Pau

    2016-01-01

    The infection rate of syphilis in China has increased dramatically in recent decades, becoming a serious public health concern. Early prediction of syphilis is therefore of great importance for heath planning and management. In this paper, we analyzed surveillance time series data for primary, secondary, tertiary, congenital and latent syphilis in mainland China from 2005 to 2012. Seasonality and long-term trend were explored with decomposition methods. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) was used to fit a univariate time series model of syphilis incidence. A separate multi-variable time series for each syphilis type was also tested using an autoregressive integrated moving average model with exogenous variables (ARIMAX). The syphilis incidence rates have increased three-fold from 2005 to 2012. All syphilis time series showed strong seasonality and increasing long-term trend. Both ARIMA and ARIMAX models fitted and estimated syphilis incidence well. All univariate time series showed highest goodness-of-fit results with the ARIMA(0,0,1)×(0,1,1) model. Time series analysis was an effective tool for modelling the historical and future incidence of syphilis in China. The ARIMAX model showed superior performance than the ARIMA model for the modelling of syphilis incidence. Time series correlations existed between the models for primary, secondary, tertiary, congenital and latent syphilis.

  2. Functional analysis of controbloc incidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gouffon, A.; Jorel, M.

    1992-11-01

    The subject of the present paper is the survey jointly carried out in 1989 by the IPSN Safety Analysis Department and the Firm BERTIN and Co. on significant incidents related to the Controbloc system equipping the EDF 1300 MWe PWR power plants in France. This survey consisted in a general review of Controbloc operating problems, together with analysis of the safety consequences of the incidents discussed. The survey enabled improvements to be recommended in this respect and provided a basis for safety analysis

  3. Time Series Modelling of Syphilis Incidence in China from 2005 to 2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xingyu; Zhang, Tao; Pei, Jiao; Liu, Yuanyuan; Li, Xiaosong; Medrano-Gracia, Pau

    2016-01-01

    Background The infection rate of syphilis in China has increased dramatically in recent decades, becoming a serious public health concern. Early prediction of syphilis is therefore of great importance for heath planning and management. Methods In this paper, we analyzed surveillance time series data for primary, secondary, tertiary, congenital and latent syphilis in mainland China from 2005 to 2012. Seasonality and long-term trend were explored with decomposition methods. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) was used to fit a univariate time series model of syphilis incidence. A separate multi-variable time series for each syphilis type was also tested using an autoregressive integrated moving average model with exogenous variables (ARIMAX). Results The syphilis incidence rates have increased three-fold from 2005 to 2012. All syphilis time series showed strong seasonality and increasing long-term trend. Both ARIMA and ARIMAX models fitted and estimated syphilis incidence well. All univariate time series showed highest goodness-of-fit results with the ARIMA(0,0,1)×(0,1,1) model. Conclusion Time series analysis was an effective tool for modelling the historical and future incidence of syphilis in China. The ARIMAX model showed superior performance than the ARIMA model for the modelling of syphilis incidence. Time series correlations existed between the models for primary, secondary, tertiary, congenital and latent syphilis. PMID:26901682

  4. Traffic Incident Clearance Time and Arrival Time Prediction Based on Hazard Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang beibei Ji

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Accurate prediction of incident duration is not only important information of Traffic Incident Management System, but also an effective input for travel time prediction. In this paper, the hazard based prediction models are developed for both incident clearance time and arrival time. The data are obtained from the Queensland Department of Transport and Main Roads’ STREAMS Incident Management System (SIMS for one year ending in November 2010. The best fitting distributions are drawn for both clearance and arrival time for 3 types of incident: crash, stationary vehicle, and hazard. The results show that Gamma, Log-logistic, and Weibull are the best fit for crash, stationary vehicle, and hazard incident, respectively. The obvious impact factors are given for crash clearance time and arrival time. The quantitative influences for crash and hazard incident are presented for both clearance and arrival. The model accuracy is analyzed at the end.

  5. Development of a subway operation incident delay model using accelerated failure time approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weng, Jinxian; Zheng, Yang; Yan, Xuedong; Meng, Qiang

    2014-12-01

    This study aims to develop a subway operational incident delay model using the parametric accelerated time failure (AFT) approach. Six parametric AFT models including the log-logistic, lognormal and Weibull models, with fixed and random parameters are built based on the Hong Kong subway operation incident data from 2005 to 2012, respectively. In addition, the Weibull model with gamma heterogeneity is also considered to compare the model performance. The goodness-of-fit test results show that the log-logistic AFT model with random parameters is most suitable for estimating the subway incident delay. First, the results show that a longer subway operation incident delay is highly correlated with the following factors: power cable failure, signal cable failure, turnout communication disruption and crashes involving a casualty. Vehicle failure makes the least impact on the increment of subway operation incident delay. According to these results, several possible measures, such as the use of short-distance and wireless communication technology (e.g., Wifi and Zigbee) are suggested to shorten the delay caused by subway operation incidents. Finally, the temporal transferability test results show that the developed log-logistic AFT model with random parameters is stable over time. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Effect of climate variables on cocoa black pod incidence in Sabah using ARIMAX model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ling Sheng Chang, Albert; Ramba, Haya; Mohd. Jaaffar, Ahmad Kamil; Kim Phin, Chong; Chong Mun, Ho

    2016-06-01

    Cocoa black pod disease is one of the major diseases affecting the cocoa production in Malaysia and also around the world. Studies have shown that the climate variables have influenced the cocoa black pod disease incidence and it is important to quantify the black pod disease variation due to the effect of climate variables. Application of time series analysis especially auto-regressive moving average (ARIMA) model has been widely used in economics study and can be used to quantify the effect of climate variables on black pod incidence to forecast the right time to control the incidence. However, ARIMA model does not capture some turning points in cocoa black pod incidence. In order to improve forecasting performance, other explanatory variables such as climate variables should be included into ARIMA model as ARIMAX model. Therefore, this paper is to study the effect of climate variables on the cocoa black pod disease incidence using ARIMAX model. The findings of the study showed ARIMAX model using MA(1) and relative humidity at lag 7 days, RHt - 7 gave better R square value compared to ARIMA model using MA(1) which could be used to forecast the black pod incidence to assist the farmers determine timely application of fungicide spraying and culture practices to control the black pod incidence.

  7. Bayesian geostatistical modeling of leishmaniasis incidence in Brazil.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dimitrios-Alexios Karagiannis-Voules

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Leishmaniasis is endemic in 98 countries with an estimated 350 million people at risk and approximately 2 million cases annually. Brazil is one of the most severely affected countries. METHODOLOGY: We applied Bayesian geostatistical negative binomial models to analyze reported incidence data of cutaneous and visceral leishmaniasis in Brazil covering a 10-year period (2001-2010. Particular emphasis was placed on spatial and temporal patterns. The models were fitted using integrated nested Laplace approximations to perform fast approximate Bayesian inference. Bayesian variable selection was employed to determine the most important climatic, environmental, and socioeconomic predictors of cutaneous and visceral leishmaniasis. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: For both types of leishmaniasis, precipitation and socioeconomic proxies were identified as important risk factors. The predicted number of cases in 2010 were 30,189 (standard deviation [SD]: 7,676 for cutaneous leishmaniasis and 4,889 (SD: 288 for visceral leishmaniasis. Our risk maps predicted the highest numbers of infected people in the states of Minas Gerais and Pará for visceral and cutaneous leishmaniasis, respectively. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our spatially explicit, high-resolution incidence maps identified priority areas where leishmaniasis control efforts should be targeted with the ultimate goal to reduce disease incidence.

  8. An Incidence Loss Model for Wave Rotors with Axially Aligned Passages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paxson, Daniel E.

    1998-01-01

    A simple mathematical model is described to account for the losses incurred when the flow in the duct (port) of a wave rotor is not aligned with the passages. The model, specifically for wave rotors with axially aligned passages, describes a loss mechanism which is sensitive to incident flow angle and Mach number. Implementation of the model in a one-dimensional CFD based wave rotor simulation is presented. Comparisons with limited experimental results are consistent with the model. Sensitivity studies are presented which highlight the significance of the incidence loss relative to other loss mechanisms in the wave rotor.

  9. Carcinogenesis model analysis for breast cancer incidence among atomic bomb survivors and the implications for cancer risk estimate for radiological protection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kai, Michiaki; Kusama, Tomoko

    2000-01-01

    Breast cancer incidence is the highest risk due to radiation among atomic bomb survivors. The excess relative risk of the early-onset breast cancer seems to be remarkably high for the youngest age-at-exposure groups. The cancer risk estimate of breast cancer is a current issue in radiological protection. We used a two-stage stochastic model for carcinogenesis to analyze the breast cancer incidence among atomic bomb survivors (Kai, et al. Radiat. Res. 1997). Our purpose is to examine the dependence of radiation risk on age at exposure using the two-stage model and how to transfer it to other populations for radiological protection. We fitted the model assuming that radiation acts as an initiator and that the rate of radiation-induced mutation and background initiation mutation leading to baseline cancer are additive. We took two age-dependence, not attained age but age at exposure, of the spontaneous process into account. First, age-dependence of spontaneous initiation was expressed by a linear model. We also modeled the age-dependence of spontaneous net growth rate of initiated cells by a linear function. As far as radiation-induced initiation is concerned, we took a stepwise function other than a liner function into account. The analysis did not show that the radiation mutation for the youngest age-at-exposure groups below age 10 was higher than for the older groups. Furthermore, the incidence of female breast cancer in Japan is increasing and the birth cohort effect can be observed in atomic bomb survivors. Our model assumed that an acute exposure to atomic radiation can only initiate cancers and do not influence other stages of carcinogenesis, whereas spontaneous initiation and promotion are age-dependent to consider birth cohort effects. When these cohort effects are properly accounted for, the shape of the age-specific incidence curve in Japan is remarkably similar to the age-specific incidence in western populations (shown in figure). Recently Little and

  10. Assessing the external validity of model-based estimates of the incidence of heart attack in England: a modelling study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Scarborough

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The DisMod II model is designed to estimate epidemiological parameters on diseases where measured data are incomplete and has been used to provide estimates of disease incidence for the Global Burden of Disease study. We assessed the external validity of the DisMod II model by comparing modelled estimates of the incidence of first acute myocardial infarction (AMI in England in 2010 with estimates derived from a linked dataset of hospital records and death certificates. Methods Inputs for DisMod II were prevalence rates of ever having had an AMI taken from a population health survey, total mortality rates and AMI mortality rates taken from death certificates. By definition, remission rates were zero. We estimated first AMI incidence in an external dataset from England in 2010 using a linked dataset including all hospital admissions and death certificates since 1998. 95 % confidence intervals were derived around estimates from the external dataset and DisMod II estimates based on sampling variance and reported uncertainty in prevalence estimates respectively. Results Estimates of the incidence rate for the whole population were higher in the DisMod II results than the external dataset (+54 % for men and +26 % for women. Age-specific results showed that the DisMod II results over-estimated incidence for all but the oldest age groups. Confidence intervals for the DisMod II and external dataset estimates did not overlap for most age groups. Conclusion By comparison with AMI incidence rates in England, DisMod II did not achieve external validity for age-specific incidence rates, but did provide global estimates of incidence that are of similar magnitude to measured estimates. The model should be used with caution when estimating age-specific incidence rates.

  11. Modeling the microstructure of surface by applying BRDF function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plachta, Kamil

    2017-06-01

    The paper presents the modeling of surface microstructure using a bidirectional reflectance distribution function. This function contains full information about the reflectance properties of the flat surfaces - it is possible to determine the share of the specular, directional and diffuse components in the reflected luminous stream. The software is based on the authorial algorithm that uses selected elements of this function models, which allows to determine the share of each component. Basing on obtained data, the surface microstructure of each material can be modeled, which allows to determine the properties of this materials. The concentrator directs the reflected solar radiation onto the photovoltaic surface, increasing, at the same time, the value of the incident luminous stream. The paper presents an analysis of selected materials that can be used to construct the solar concentrator system. The use of concentrator increases the power output of the photovoltaic system by up to 17% as compared to the standard solution.

  12. 76 FR 17022 - Special Conditions: Gulfstream Model GVI Airplane; High Incidence Protection

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-03-28

    ... Special Conditions No. 25-423-SC] Special Conditions: Gulfstream Model GVI Airplane; High Incidence... for transport category airplanes associated with the use of high incidence protection. The applicable... with an executive cabin interior. The maximum takeoff weight will be 99,600 pounds, with a maximum...

  13. Study on the incidence and etiology of subclinical thyroid function disorders

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gu Jingxin; Xie Xiuhai; Huang Chenyang; Fu Junyan; Lu Weiguo; Chen Kejing

    2006-01-01

    Objective: To study the incidence and etiology of subclinical thyroid function disorders in 12592 subjects tested. Methods: The etiology of 874 patients with abnormal serum TSH (with IRMA) found in the tested 12592 patients, whose serum T 3 , T 4 , FT 3 , FT 4 , TSH, TGA and TMA were also detected with RIA was analyzed. Results: 874 of 12592 patients had abnormal TSH levels (6.94%). Among them, TSH was elevated in 397 patients (3.15%) and decreased in 477 patients (3.79%). Most of them were associated with obvious related thyroid or other thronic diseases such as hyperthyroidism after therapy, thyroxine replacement treatment of hypothyroidism and other thyroid diseases (thyroiditis, diffuse nontoxic goiter). In the remaining apparently disease-free 143 subjects, there were with subclinical hypothyroidism and 34 (3.89% of 874) with subclinical hyperthyroidism. Also among the 874 patients, 30.78% (n=269) patients had elevated TGA and TMA[16.82% (n=147) had elevated TSH and TGA, TMA simultaneously, 13.96% (n=122) had decreased TSH and elevated TGA and TMA simultaneously]. In the 874 patients, 256 (29.29%) were older than 60. Conclusion: Elderly people has higher incidence of subclinical thyroid function disorders. We should pay more attention to the detection of this condition, especially in elderly patients. (authors)

  14. 75 FR 80735 - Special Conditions: Gulfstream Model GVI Airplane; High Incidence Protection

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-12-23

    ... Special Conditions No. 25-10-03-SC] Special Conditions: Gulfstream Model GVI Airplane; High Incidence... airworthiness standards for transport category airplanes associated with the use of high incidence protection... transport airplane with an executive cabin interior. The maximum takeoff weight will be 99,600 pounds, with...

  15. Multi-step polynomial regression method to model and forecast malaria incidence.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chandrajit Chatterjee

    Full Text Available Malaria is one of the most severe problems faced by the world even today. Understanding the causative factors such as age, sex, social factors, environmental variability etc. as well as underlying transmission dynamics of the disease is important for epidemiological research on malaria and its eradication. Thus, development of suitable modeling approach and methodology, based on the available data on the incidence of the disease and other related factors is of utmost importance. In this study, we developed a simple non-linear regression methodology in modeling and forecasting malaria incidence in Chennai city, India, and predicted future disease incidence with high confidence level. We considered three types of data to develop the regression methodology: a longer time series data of Slide Positivity Rates (SPR of malaria; a smaller time series data (deaths due to Plasmodium vivax of one year; and spatial data (zonal distribution of P. vivax deaths for the city along with the climatic factors, population and previous incidence of the disease. We performed variable selection by simple correlation study, identification of the initial relationship between variables through non-linear curve fitting and used multi-step methods for induction of variables in the non-linear regression analysis along with applied Gauss-Markov models, and ANOVA for testing the prediction, validity and constructing the confidence intervals. The results execute the applicability of our method for different types of data, the autoregressive nature of forecasting, and show high prediction power for both SPR and P. vivax deaths, where the one-lag SPR values plays an influential role and proves useful for better prediction. Different climatic factors are identified as playing crucial role on shaping the disease curve. Further, disease incidence at zonal level and the effect of causative factors on different zonal clusters indicate the pattern of malaria prevalence in the city

  16. 77 FR 32006 - Special Conditions: Gulfstream Model GVI Airplane; High Incidence Protection

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-31

    ... Special Conditions No. 25-423-SC] Special Conditions: Gulfstream Model GVI Airplane; High Incidence... pertaining to a high incidence protection system that replaces the stall warning system during normal... the condition existing in the test or performance standard in which V SR is being used. (3) The weight...

  17. Fasting triglycerides as a predictor of incident diabetes, insulin resistance and β-cell function in a Canadian First Nation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riediger, Natalie D; Clark, Kirsten; Lukianchuk, Virginia; Roulette, Joanne; Bruce, Sharon

    2017-01-01

    Diabetes prevalence is substantially higher among Canadian First Nations populations than the non-First Nation population. Fasting serum triglycerides have been found to be an important predictor of incident diabetes among non-indigenous populations. However, there is a great need to understand diabetes progression within specific ethnic groups, particularly First Nations populations. The purpose of this study was to test for an association between fasting serum triglycerides and incident diabetes, changes in insulin resistance and changes in β-cell function in a Manitoba First Nation cohort. Study data were from two diabetes screening studies in Sandy Bay First Nation in Manitoba, Canada, collected in 2002/2003 and 2011/2012. The cohort was composed of respondents to both screening studies (n=171). Fasting blood samples and anthropometric, health and demographic data were collected. A generalised linear model with Poisson distribution was used to test for an association between fasting triglycerides and incident diabetes. There were 35 incident cases of diabetes among 128 persons without diabetes at baseline. Participants who developed incident type 2 diabetes were significantly older and had significantly higher body mass index (BMI; p=0.012), total cholesterol (p=0.007), fasting triglycerides (ptriglyceride level was found to be a statistically significant positive predictor of incident diabetes independent of age, sex and waist circumference at baseline. Participants with triglycerides in the highest tertile (≥2.11 mmol/l) had a 4.0-times higher risk of developing incident diabetes compared to those in the lowest tertile (p=0.03). Notably, neither waist circumference nor BMI were significant predictors of incident diabetes independent of age, sex and triglycerides. Fasting triglycerides may be useful as a clinical predictor of insulin resistance and diabetes development among First Nations populations. Unlike other ethnic groups, BMI and waist circumference

  18. The importance of regional models in assessing canine cancer incidences in Switzerland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boo, Gianluca; Leyk, Stefan; Brunsdon, Christopher; Graf, Ramona; Pospischil, Andreas; Fabrikant, Sara Irina

    2018-01-01

    Fitting canine cancer incidences through a conventional regression model assumes constant statistical relationships across the study area in estimating the model coefficients. However, it is often more realistic to consider that these relationships may vary over space. Such a condition, known as spatial non-stationarity, implies that the model coefficients need to be estimated locally. In these kinds of local models, the geographic scale, or spatial extent, employed for coefficient estimation may also have a pervasive influence. This is because important variations in the local model coefficients across geographic scales may impact the understanding of local relationships. In this study, we fitted canine cancer incidences across Swiss municipal units through multiple regional models. We computed diagnostic summaries across the different regional models, and contrasted them with the diagnostics of the conventional regression model, using value-by-alpha maps and scalograms. The results of this comparative assessment enabled us to identify variations in the goodness-of-fit and coefficient estimates. We detected spatially non-stationary relationships, in particular, for the variables related to biological risk factors. These variations in the model coefficients were more important at small geographic scales, making a case for the need to model canine cancer incidences locally in contrast to more conventional global approaches. However, we contend that prior to undertaking local modeling efforts, a deeper understanding of the effects of geographic scale is needed to better characterize and identify local model relationships.

  19. Prediction Model for Gastric Cancer Incidence in Korean Population.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bang Wool Eom

    Full Text Available Predicting high risk groups for gastric cancer and motivating these groups to receive regular checkups is required for the early detection of gastric cancer. The aim of this study is was to develop a prediction model for gastric cancer incidence based on a large population-based cohort in Korea.Based on the National Health Insurance Corporation data, we analyzed 10 major risk factors for gastric cancer. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to develop gender specific prediction models for gastric cancer development, and the performance of the developed model in terms of discrimination and calibration was also validated using an independent cohort. Discrimination ability was evaluated using Harrell's C-statistics, and the calibration was evaluated using a calibration plot and slope.During a median of 11.4 years of follow-up, 19,465 (1.4% and 5,579 (0.7% newly developed gastric cancer cases were observed among 1,372,424 men and 804,077 women, respectively. The prediction models included age, BMI, family history, meal regularity, salt preference, alcohol consumption, smoking and physical activity for men, and age, BMI, family history, salt preference, alcohol consumption, and smoking for women. This prediction model showed good accuracy and predictability in both the developing and validation cohorts (C-statistics: 0.764 for men, 0.706 for women.In this study, a prediction model for gastric cancer incidence was developed that displayed a good performance.

  20. Analysis of an HIV/AIDS treatment model with a nonlinear incidence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cai Liming; Wu Jingang

    2009-01-01

    An HIV/AIDS treatment model with a nonlinear incidence is formulated. The infectious period is partitioned into the asymptotic and the symptomatic phases according to clinical stages. The constant recruitment rate, disease-induced death, drug therapies, as well as a nonlinear incidence, are incorporated into the model. The basic reproduction number R 0 of the model is determined by the method of next generation matrix. Mathematical analysis establishes that the global dynamics of the spread of the HIV infectious disease are completely determined by the basic reproduction number R 0 . If R 0 ≤1, the disease always dies out and the disease-free equilibrium is globally stable. If R 0 >1, the disease persists and the unique endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable in the interior of the feasible region.

  1. Risk Prediction Models for Incident Heart Failure: A Systematic Review of Methodology and Model Performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahle, Berhe W; Owen, Alice J; Chin, Ken Lee; Reid, Christopher M

    2017-09-01

    Numerous models predicting the risk of incident heart failure (HF) have been developed; however, evidence of their methodological rigor and reporting remains unclear. This study critically appraises the methods underpinning incident HF risk prediction models. EMBASE and PubMed were searched for articles published between 1990 and June 2016 that reported at least 1 multivariable model for prediction of HF. Model development information, including study design, variable coding, missing data, and predictor selection, was extracted. Nineteen studies reporting 40 risk prediction models were included. Existing models have acceptable discriminative ability (C-statistics > 0.70), although only 6 models were externally validated. Candidate variable selection was based on statistical significance from a univariate screening in 11 models, whereas it was unclear in 12 models. Continuous predictors were retained in 16 models, whereas it was unclear how continuous variables were handled in 16 models. Missing values were excluded in 19 of 23 models that reported missing data, and the number of events per variable was models. Only 2 models presented recommended regression equations. There was significant heterogeneity in discriminative ability of models with respect to age (P prediction models that had sufficient discriminative ability, although few are externally validated. Methods not recommended for the conduct and reporting of risk prediction modeling were frequently used, and resulting algorithms should be applied with caution. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. The proportional odds cumulative incidence model for competing risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eriksson, Frank; Li, Jianing; Scheike, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    We suggest an estimator for the proportional odds cumulative incidence model for competing risks data. The key advantage of this model is that the regression parameters have the simple and useful odds ratio interpretation. The model has been considered by many authors, but it is rarely used...... in practice due to the lack of reliable estimation procedures. We suggest such procedures and show that their performance improve considerably on existing methods. We also suggest a goodness-of-fit test for the proportional odds assumption. We derive the large sample properties and provide estimators...

  3. Fear of falling predicts incidence of functional disability two years later: A perspective from an international cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Auais, Mohammad; French, Simon; Alvarado, Beatriz; Pirkle, Catherine; Belanger, Emmanuelle; Guralnik, Jack

    2017-12-06

    To study the extent to which fear of falling (FOF) is associated with the onset of functional disability over a 2-year period in older adults using self-reported and performance-based measures. In 2012, 1,601 participants (aged 65-74) were recruited from four sites: Kingston and Saint-Hyacinthe, Canada; Manizales, Colombia; and Natal, Brazil. They were re-assessed in 2014. We quantified FOF using the Fall Efficacy Scale-International (FES-I; range: 16-64). Functional disability measures were 1) self-reported incident mobility disability, defined as difficulty climbing a flight of stairs or walking 400 meters and 2) incident poor physical performance, defined as a score <9 on the Short Physical Performance Battery. In the Poisson regression analysis, we included only those participants without functional disability at baseline to calculate incident risk ratios in 2014. 1,355 participants completed the 2014 assessment, of which 917 and 1,078 had no mobility disability and poor physical performance at baseline, respectively. In 2014, 131 (14.3%), and 166 (15.4%) participants reported incident mobility disability and poor physical performance, respectively. After adjusting for age, sex, socioeconomic, and health covariates, a one-point increase in FES-I at baseline was associated with a 4% increase in the risk of reporting incident mobility disability (95% CI: 1.02-1.05) and a 3% increase in the risk of developing poor physical performance at follow up in the overall sample (95%CI: 1.01-1.05). FOF is associated with a higher risk of incident mobility disability and poor physical performance in a cohort of older adults. It is increasingly important to study FOF's effect on functional disability and to take necessary measures to prevent the transition to end-stage disability. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  4. Modelling the incidence of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum malaria in Afghanistan 2006-2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alegana, Victor A; Wright, Jim A; Nahzat, Sami M; Butt, Waqar; Sediqi, Amad W; Habib, Naeem; Snow, Robert W; Atkinson, Peter M; Noor, Abdisalan M

    2014-01-01

    Identifying areas that support high malaria risks and where populations lack access to health care is central to reducing the burden in Afghanistan. This study investigated the incidence of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum using routine data to help focus malaria interventions. To estimate incidence, the study modelled utilisation of the public health sector using fever treatment data from the 2012 national Malaria Indicator Survey. A probabilistic measure of attendance was applied to population density metrics to define the proportion of the population within catchment of a public health facility. Malaria data were used in a Bayesian spatio-temporal conditional-autoregressive model with ecological or environmental covariates, to examine the spatial and temporal variation of incidence. From the analysis of healthcare utilisation, over 80% of the population was within 2 hours' travel of the nearest public health facility, while 64.4% were within 30 minutes' travel. The mean incidence of P. vivax in 2009 was 5.4 (95% Crl 3.2-9.2) cases per 1000 population compared to 1.2 (95% Crl 0.4-2.9) cases per 1000 population for P. falciparum. P. vivax peaked in August while P. falciparum peaked in November. 32% of the estimated 30.5 million people lived in regions where annual incidence was at least 1 case per 1,000 population of P. vivax; 23.7% of the population lived in areas where annual P. falciparum case incidence was at least 1 per 1000. This study showed how routine data can be combined with household survey data to model malaria incidence. The incidence of both P. vivax and P. falciparum in Afghanistan remain low but the co-distribution of both parasites and the lag in their peak season provides challenges to malaria control in Afghanistan. Future improved case definition to determine levels of imported risks may be useful for the elimination ambitions in Afghanistan.

  5. Fractures and dislocations of the hand in polytrauma patients: Incidence, injury pattern and functional outcome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferree, Steven; van der Vliet, Quirine M J; van Heijl, Mark; Houwert, Roderick M; Leenen, Luke P H; Hietbrink, Falco

    2017-04-01

    Injuries of the hand can cause significant functional impairment, diminished quality of life and delayed return to work. However, the incidence and functional outcome of hand injuries in polytrauma patients is currently unknown. The aim of this study was to determine the incidence, distribution and functional outcome of fractures and dislocation of the hand in polytrauma patients. A single centre retrospective cohort study was performed at a level 1 trauma centre. Polytrauma was defined as patients with an Injury Severity Score of 16 or higher. Fractures and dislocations to the hand were determined. All eligible polytrauma patients with hand injuries were included and a Quick Disability of Arm, Shoulder and Hand questionnaire (QDASH) and Patient-Rated Wrist/Hand Evaluation (PRWHE) were administered. Patients were contacted 1-6 years after trauma. In a cohort of 2046 polytrauma patients 72 patients (3.5%) suffered a hand injury. The functional outcome scores of 52 patients (72%) were obtained. The Metacarpal (48%) and carpal (33%) bones were the most frequently affected. The median QDASH score for all patients with hand injury was 17 (IQR 0-31) and the PRWHE 14 (IQR 0-41). Patients with a concomitant upper extremity injury (p=0.002 for PRWHE, p0.006 for QDASH) and those with higher ISS scores (p=0.034 for PRWHE, QDASH not significant) had worse functional outcome scores. As an example, of the 5 patients with the worst outcome scores 3 suffered an isolated phalangeal injury, all had concomitant upper extremity injury or neurological injuries (3 plexus injuries, 1 severe brain injury). The incidence of hand injuries in polytrauma patients is 3.5%, which is relatively low compared to a general trauma population. Metacarpal and carpal bones were most frequently affected. The functional extremity specific outcome scores are highly influenced by concomitant injuries (upper extremity injuries, neurological injuries and higher ISS). Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All

  6. A global model of malaria climate sensitivity: comparing malaria response to historic climate data based on simulation and officially reported malaria incidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edlund Stefan

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The role of the Anopheles vector in malaria transmission and the effect of climate on Anopheles populations are well established. Models of the impact of climate change on the global malaria burden now have access to high-resolution climate data, but malaria surveillance data tends to be less precise, making model calibration problematic. Measurement of malaria response to fluctuations in climate variables offers a way to address these difficulties. Given the demonstrated sensitivity of malaria transmission to vector capacity, this work tests response functions to fluctuations in land surface temperature and precipitation. Methods This study of regional sensitivity of malaria incidence to year-to-year climate variations used an extended Macdonald Ross compartmental disease model (to compute malaria incidence built on top of a global Anopheles vector capacity model (based on 10 years of satellite climate data. The predicted incidence was compared with estimates from the World Health Organization and the Malaria Atlas. The models and denominator data used are freely available through the Eclipse Foundation’s Spatiotemporal Epidemiological Modeller (STEM. Results Although the absolute scale factor relating reported malaria to absolute incidence is uncertain, there is a positive correlation between predicted and reported year-to-year variation in malaria burden with an averaged root mean square (RMS error of 25% comparing normalized incidence across 86 countries. Based on this, the proposed measure of sensitivity of malaria to variations in climate variables indicates locations where malaria is most likely to increase or decrease in response to specific climate factors. Bootstrapping measures the increased uncertainty in predicting malaria sensitivity when reporting is restricted to national level and an annual basis. Results indicate a potential 20x improvement in accuracy if data were available at the level ISO 3166–2

  7. An SIRS model with a nonlinear incidence rate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jin Yu; Wang, Wendi; Xiao Shiwu

    2007-01-01

    The global dynamics of an SIRS model with a nonlinear incidence rate is investigated. We establish a threshold for a disease to be extinct or endemic, analyze the existence and asymptotic stability of equilibria, and verify the existence of bistable states, i.e., a stable disease free equilibrium and a stable endemic equilibrium or a stable limit cycle. In particular, we find that the model admits stability switches as a parameter changes. We also investigate the backward bifurcation, the Hopf bifurcation and Bogdanov-Takens bifurcation and obtain the Hopf bifurcation criteria and Bogdanov-Takens bifurcation curves, which are important for making strategies for controlling a disease

  8. Active Full-Shell Grazing-Incidence Optics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Jacqueline M.; Elsner, Ronald F.; Ramsey, Brian D.; O'Dell, Stephen L.; Kolodziejczak, Jeffery; Weisskopf, Martin C.; Gubarev, Mikhail V.

    2016-01-01

    MSFC has a long history of developing full-shell grazing-incidence x-ray optics for both narrow (pointed) and wide field (surveying) applications. The concept presented in this paper shows the potential to use active optics to switch between narrow and wide-field geometries, while maintaining large effective area and high angular resolution. In addition, active optics has the potential to reduce errors due to mounting and manufacturing lightweight optics. The design presented corrects low spatial frequency error and has significantly fewer actuators than other concepts presented thus far in the field of active x-ray optics. Using a finite element model, influence functions are calculated using active components on a full-shell grazing-incidence optic. Next, the ability of the active optic to effect a change of optical prescription and to correct for errors due to manufacturing and mounting is modeled.

  9. Predicting the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in Sichuan province, China using the ARIMA model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, L; Luan, R S; Yin, F; Zhu, X P; Lü, Q

    2016-01-01

    Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is an infectious disease caused by enteroviruses, which usually occurs in children aged ARIMA) model to forecast HFMD incidence in Sichuan province, China. HFMD infection data from January 2010 to June 2014 were used to fit the ARIMA model. The coefficient of determination (R 2), normalized Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and mean absolute percentage of error (MAPE) were used to evaluate the goodness-of-fit of the constructed models. The fitted ARIMA model was applied to forecast the incidence of HMFD from April to June 2014. The goodness-of-fit test generated the optimum general multiplicative seasonal ARIMA (1,0,1) × (0,1,0)12 model (R 2 = 0·692, MAPE = 15·982, BIC = 5·265), which also showed non-significant autocorrelations in the residuals of the model (P = 0·893). The forecast incidence values of the ARIMA (1,0,1) × (0,1,0)12 model from July to December 2014 were 4103-9987, which were proximate forecasts. The ARIMA model could be applied to forecast HMFD incidence trend and provide support for HMFD prevention and control. Further observations should be carried out continually into the time sequence, and the parameters of the models could be adjusted because HMFD incidence will not be absolutely stationary in the future.

  10. Nonparametric Estimation of Cumulative Incidence Functions for Competing Risks Data with Missing Cause of Failure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Effraimidis, Georgios; Dahl, Christian Møller

    In this paper, we develop a fully nonparametric approach for the estimation of the cumulative incidence function with Missing At Random right-censored competing risks data. We obtain results on the pointwise asymptotic normality as well as the uniform convergence rate of the proposed nonparametric...

  11. Venovenous Bypass Is Associated With a Lower Incidence of Acute Kidney Injury After Liver Transplantation in Patients With Compromised Pretransplant Renal Function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Kai; Hong, Fu; Wang, Yun; Agopian, Vatche G; Yan, Min; Busuttil, Ronald W; Steadman, Randolph H; Xia, Victor W

    2017-11-01

    Although the hemodynamic benefits of venovenous bypass (VVB) during liver transplantation (LT) are well appreciated, the impact of VVB on posttransplant renal function is uncertain. The aim of this study was to determine if VVB was associated with a lower incidence of posttransplant acute kidney injury (AKI). Medical records of adult (≥18 years) patients who underwent primary LT between 2004 and 2014 at a tertiary hospital were reviewed. Patients who required pretransplant renal replacement therapy and intraoperative piggyback technique were excluded. Patients were divided into 2 groups, VVB and non-VVB. AKI, determined by the Acute Kidney Injury Network criteria, was compared between the 2 groups. Propensity match was used to control selection bias that occurred before VVB and multivariable logistic regression was used to control confounding factors during and after VVB. Of 1037 adult patients who met the study inclusion criteria, 247 (23.8%) received VVB. A total of 442 patients (221 patients in each group) were matched. Aftermatch patients were further divided according to a predicted probability AKI model using preoperative creatinine (Cr), VVB, and intraoperative variables into 2 subgroups: normal and compromised pretransplant renal functions. In patients with compromised pretransplant renal function (Cr ≥1.2 mg/dL), the incidence of AKI was significantly lower in the VVB group compared with the non-VVB group (37.2% vs 50.8%; P = .033). VVB was an independent risk factor negatively associated with AKI (odds ratio, 0.1; 95% confidence interval, 0.1-0.4; P = .001). Renal replacement in 30 days and 1-year recipient mortality were not significantly different between the 2 groups. The incidence of posttransplant AKI was not significantly different between the 2 groups in patients with normal pretransplant renal function (Cr the role of intraoperative VVB in posttransplant AKI are warranted.

  12. Executive function, but not memory, associates with incident coronary heart disease and stroke

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rostamian, Somayeh; van Buchem, Mark A; Westendorp, Rudi G J

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the association of performance in cognitive domains executive function and memory with incident coronary heart disease and stroke in older participants without dementia. METHODS: We included 3,926 participants (mean age 75 years, 44% male) at risk for cardiovascular diseases...... from the Prospective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk (PROSPER) with Mini-Mental State Examination score ≥24 points. Scores on the Stroop Color-Word Test (selective attention) and the Letter Digit Substitution Test (processing speed) were converted to Z scores and averaged into a composite...... executive function score. Likewise, scores of the Picture Learning Test (immediate and delayed memory) were transformed into a composite memory score. Associations of executive function and memory were longitudinally assessed with risk of coronary heart disease and stroke using multivariable Cox regression...

  13. The Smo/Smo model: hedgehog-induced medulloblastoma with 90% incidence and leptomeningeal spread.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatton, Beryl A; Villavicencio, Elisabeth H; Tsuchiya, Karen D; Pritchard, Joel I; Ditzler, Sally; Pullar, Barbara; Hansen, Stacey; Knoblaugh, Sue E; Lee, Donghoon; Eberhart, Charles G; Hallahan, Andrew R; Olson, James M

    2008-03-15

    Toward the goal of generating a mouse medulloblastoma model with increased tumor incidence, we developed a homozygous version of our ND2:SmoA1 model. Medulloblastomas form in 94% of homozygous Smo/Smo mice by 2 months of age. Tumor formation is, thus, predictable by age, before the symptomatic appearance of larger lesions. This high incidence and early onset of tumors is ideal for preclinical studies because mice can be enrolled before symptom onset and with a greater latency period before late-stage disease. Smo/Smo tumors also display leptomeningeal dissemination of neoplastic cells to the brain and spine, which occurs in many human cases. Despite an extended proliferation of granule neuron precursors (GNP) in the postnatal external granular layer (EGL), the internal granular layer formed normally in Smo/Smo mice and tumor formation occurred only in localized foci on the superficial surface of the molecular layer. Thus, tumor formation is not simply the result of over proliferation of GNPs within the EGL. Moreover, Smo/Smo medulloblastomas were transplantable and serially passaged in vivo, demonstrating the aggressiveness of tumor cells and their transformation beyond a hyperplastic state. The Smo/Smo model is the first mouse medulloblastoma model to show leptomeningeal spread. The adherence to human pathology, high incidence, and early onset of tumors thus make Smo/Smo mice an efficient model for preclinical studies.

  14. Integrating an incident management system within a continuity of operations programme: case study of the Bank of Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loop, Carole

    2013-01-01

    Carrying out critical business functions without interruption requires a resilient and robust business continuity framework. By embedding an industry-standard incident management system within its business continuity structure, the Bank of Canada strengthened its response plan by enabling timely response to incidents while maintaining a strong focus on business continuity. A total programme approach, integrating the two disciplines, provided for enhanced recovery capabilities. While the value of an effective and efficient response organisation is clear, as demonstrated by emergency events around the world, incident response structures based on normal operating hierarchy can experience unique challenges. The internationally-recognised Incident Command System (ICS) model addresses these issues and reflects the five primary incident management functions, each contributing to the overall strength and effectiveness of the response organisation. The paper focuses on the Bank of Canada's successful implementation of the ICS model as its incident management and continuity of operations programmes evolved to reflect current best practices.

  15. [Impact on the improvement of paediatric emergency services using a standardised model for the declaration and analysis of incidents].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vilà de Muga, M; Serrano Llop, A; Rifé Escudero, E; Jabalera Contreras, M; Luaces Cubells, C

    2015-10-01

    The aim of this study is to analyse changes in the incidents reported after the implementation of a new model, and study its results on patient safety. In 2012 an observational study with prospective collection of incidents reported between 2007 and 2011 was conducted. In May 2012 a model change was made in order to increase the number of reports, analyse their causes, and improve the feedback to the service. Professional safety representatives were assigned to every department, information and diffusion sessions were held, and a new incident reporting system was implemented. With the new model, a new observational study with prospective collection of the reports during one year was initiated, and the results compared between models. In 2011, only 19 incidents were reported in the Emergency Department, and between June 1, 2012 to June 1, 2013, 106 incidents (5.6 times more). The incidents reported were medication incidents (57%), identification (26%), and procedures (7%). The most frequent causes were human (70.7%), lack of training (22.6%), and working conditions (15.1%). Some measures were implemented as a result of these incidents: a surgical checklist, unit doses of salbutamol, tables of weight-standardised doses of drugs for cardiopulmonary resuscitation. The new model of reporting incidents has enhanced the reports and has allowed improvements and the implementation of preventive measures, increasing the patient safety in the Emergency Department. Copyright © 2014 Asociación Española de Pediatría. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  16. Modelling the Incidence of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum Malaria in Afghanistan 2006–2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alegana, Victor A.; Wright, Jim A.; Nahzat, Sami M.; Butt, Waqar; Sediqi, Amad W.; Habib, Naeem; Snow, Robert W.; Atkinson, Peter M.; Noor, Abdisalan M.

    2014-01-01

    Background Identifying areas that support high malaria risks and where populations lack access to health care is central to reducing the burden in Afghanistan. This study investigated the incidence of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum using routine data to help focus malaria interventions. Methods To estimate incidence, the study modelled utilisation of the public health sector using fever treatment data from the 2012 national Malaria Indicator Survey. A probabilistic measure of attendance was applied to population density metrics to define the proportion of the population within catchment of a public health facility. Malaria data were used in a Bayesian spatio-temporal conditional-autoregressive model with ecological or environmental covariates, to examine the spatial and temporal variation of incidence. Findings From the analysis of healthcare utilisation, over 80% of the population was within 2 hours’ travel of the nearest public health facility, while 64.4% were within 30 minutes’ travel. The mean incidence of P. vivax in 2009 was 5.4 (95% Crl 3.2–9.2) cases per 1000 population compared to 1.2 (95% Crl 0.4–2.9) cases per 1000 population for P. falciparum. P. vivax peaked in August while P. falciparum peaked in November. 32% of the estimated 30.5 million people lived in regions where annual incidence was at least 1 case per 1,000 population of P. vivax; 23.7% of the population lived in areas where annual P. falciparum case incidence was at least 1 per 1000. Conclusion This study showed how routine data can be combined with household survey data to model malaria incidence. The incidence of both P. vivax and P. falciparum in Afghanistan remain low but the co-distribution of both parasites and the lag in their peak season provides challenges to malaria control in Afghanistan. Future improved case definition to determine levels of imported risks may be useful for the elimination ambitions in Afghanistan. PMID:25033452

  17. Application of the three-component bidirectional reflectance distribution function model to Monte Carlo calculation of spectral effective emissivities of nonisothermal blackbody cavities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prokhorov, Alexander; Prokhorova, Nina I

    2012-11-20

    We applied the bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) model consisting of diffuse, quasi-specular, and glossy components to the Monte Carlo modeling of spectral effective emissivities for nonisothermal cavities. A method for extension of a monochromatic three-component (3C) BRDF model to a continuous spectral range is proposed. The initial data for this method are the BRDFs measured in the plane of incidence at a single wavelength and several incidence angles and directional-hemispherical reflectance measured at one incidence angle within a finite spectral range. We proposed the Monte Carlo algorithm for calculation of spectral effective emissivities for nonisothermal cavities whose internal surface is described by the wavelength-dependent 3C BRDF model. The results obtained for a cylindroconical nonisothermal cavity are discussed and compared with results obtained using the conventional specular-diffuse model.

  18. Modelling malaria incidence with environmental dependency in a locality of Sudanese savannah area, Mali.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaudart, Jean; Touré, Ousmane; Dessay, Nadine; Dicko, A Lassane; Ranque, Stéphane; Forest, Loic; Demongeot, Jacques; Doumbo, Ogobara K

    2009-04-10

    The risk of Plasmodium falciparum infection is variable over space and time and this variability is related to environmental variability. Environmental factors affect the biological cycle of both vector and parasite. Despite this strong relationship, environmental effects have rarely been included in malaria transmission models.Remote sensing data on environment were incorporated into a temporal model of the transmission, to forecast the evolution of malaria epidemiology, in a locality of Sudanese savannah area. A dynamic cohort was constituted in June 1996 and followed up until June 2001 in the locality of Bancoumana, Mali. The 15-day composite vegetation index (NDVI), issued from satellite imagery series (NOAA) from July 1981 to December 2006, was used as remote sensing data.The statistical relationship between NDVI and incidence of P. falciparum infection was assessed by ARIMA analysis. ROC analysis provided an NDVI value for the prediction of an increase in incidence of parasitaemia.Malaria transmission was modelled using an SIRS-type model, adapted to Bancoumana's data. Environmental factors influenced vector mortality and aggressiveness, as well as length of the gonotrophic cycle. NDVI observations from 1981 to 2001 were used for the simulation of the extrinsic variable of a hidden Markov chain model. Observations from 2002 to 2006 served as external validation. The seasonal pattern of P. falciparum incidence was significantly explained by NDVI, with a delay of 15 days (p = 0.001). An NDVI threshold of 0.361 (p = 0.007) provided a Diagnostic Odd Ratio (DOR) of 2.64 (CI95% [1.26;5.52]).The deterministic transmission model, with stochastic environmental factor, predicted an endemo-epidemic pattern of malaria infection. The incidences of parasitaemia were adequately modelled, using the observed NDVI as well as the NDVI simulations. Transmission pattern have been modelled and observed values were adequately predicted. The error parameters have shown the smallest

  19. Modelling malaria incidence with environmental dependency in a locality of Sudanese savannah area, Mali

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaudart, Jean; Touré, Ousmane; Dessay, Nadine; Dicko, A lassane; Ranque, Stéphane; Forest, Loic; Demongeot, Jacques; Doumbo, Ogobara K

    2009-01-01

    Background The risk of Plasmodium falciparum infection is variable over space and time and this variability is related to environmental variability. Environmental factors affect the biological cycle of both vector and parasite. Despite this strong relationship, environmental effects have rarely been included in malaria transmission models. Remote sensing data on environment were incorporated into a temporal model of the transmission, to forecast the evolution of malaria epidemiology, in a locality of Sudanese savannah area. Methods A dynamic cohort was constituted in June 1996 and followed up until June 2001 in the locality of Bancoumana, Mali. The 15-day composite vegetation index (NDVI), issued from satellite imagery series (NOAA) from July 1981 to December 2006, was used as remote sensing data. The statistical relationship between NDVI and incidence of P. falciparum infection was assessed by ARIMA analysis. ROC analysis provided an NDVI value for the prediction of an increase in incidence of parasitaemia. Malaria transmission was modelled using an SIRS-type model, adapted to Bancoumana's data. Environmental factors influenced vector mortality and aggressiveness, as well as length of the gonotrophic cycle. NDVI observations from 1981 to 2001 were used for the simulation of the extrinsic variable of a hidden Markov chain model. Observations from 2002 to 2006 served as external validation. Results The seasonal pattern of P. falciparum incidence was significantly explained by NDVI, with a delay of 15 days (p = 0.001). An NDVI threshold of 0.361 (p = 0.007) provided a Diagnostic Odd Ratio (DOR) of 2.64 (CI95% [1.26;5.52]). The deterministic transmission model, with stochastic environmental factor, predicted an endemo-epidemic pattern of malaria infection. The incidences of parasitaemia were adequately modelled, using the observed NDVI as well as the NDVI simulations. Transmission pattern have been modelled and observed values were adequately predicted. The error

  20. Incorporating NDVI in a gravity model setting to describe spatio-temporal patterns of Lyme borreliosis incidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrios, J. M.; Verstraeten, W. W.; Farifteh, J.; Maes, P.; Aerts, J. M.; Coppin, P.

    2012-04-01

    Lyme borreliosis (LB) is the most common tick-borne disease in Europe and incidence growth has been reported in several European countries during the last decade. LB is caused by the bacterium Borrelia burgdorferi and the main vector of this pathogen in Europe is the tick Ixodes ricinus. LB incidence and spatial spread is greatly dependent on environmental conditions impacting habitat, demography and trophic interactions of ticks and the wide range of organisms ticks parasite. The landscape configuration is also a major determinant of tick habitat conditions and -very important- of the fashion and intensity of human interaction with vegetated areas, i.e. human exposure to the pathogen. Hence, spatial notions as distance and adjacency between urban and vegetated environments are related to human exposure to tick bites and, thus, to risk. This work tested the adequacy of a gravity model setting to model the observed spatio-temporal pattern of LB as a function of location and size of urban and vegetated areas and the seasonal and annual change in the vegetation dynamics as expressed by MODIS NDVI. Opting for this approach implies an analogy with Newton's law of universal gravitation in which the attraction forces between two bodies are directly proportional to the bodies mass and inversely proportional to distance. Similar implementations have proven useful in fields like trade modeling, health care service planning, disease mapping among other. In our implementation, the size of human settlements and vegetated systems and the distance separating these landscape elements are considered the 'bodies'; and the 'attraction' between them is an indicator of exposure to pathogen. A novel element of this implementation is the incorporation of NDVI to account for the seasonal and annual variation in risk. The importance of incorporating this indicator of vegetation activity resides in the fact that alterations of LB incidence pattern observed the last decade have been ascribed

  1. When did HIV incidence peak in Harare, Zimbabwe? Back-calculation from mortality statistics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ben Lopman

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available HIV prevalence has recently begun to decline in Zimbabwe, a result of both high levels of AIDS mortality and a reduction in incident infections. An important component in understanding the dynamics in HIV prevalence is knowledge of past trends in incidence, such as when incidence peaked and at what level. However, empirical measurements of incidence over an extended time period are not available from Zimbabwe or elsewhere in sub-Saharan Africa. Using mortality data, we use a back-calculation technique to reconstruct historic trends in incidence. From AIDS mortality data, extracted from death registration in Harare, together with an estimate of survival post-infection, HIV incidence trends were reconstructed that would give rise to the observed patterns of AIDS mortality. Models were fitted assuming three parametric forms of the incidence curve and under nine different assumptions regarding combinations of trends in non-AIDS mortality and patterns of survival post-infection with HIV. HIV prevalence was forward-projected from the fitted incidence and mortality curves. Models that constrained the incidence pattern to a cubic spline function were flexible and produced well-fitting, realistic patterns of incidence. In models assuming constant levels of non-AIDS mortality, annual incidence peaked between 4 and 5% between 1988 and 1990. Under other assumptions the peak level ranged from 3 to 8% per annum. However, scenarios assuming increasing levels of non-AIDS mortality resulted in implausibly low estimates of peak prevalence (11%, whereas models with decreasing underlying crude mortality could be consistent with the prevalence and mortality data. HIV incidence is most likely to have peaked in Harare between 1988 and 1990, which may have preceded the peak elsewhere in Zimbabwe. This finding, considered alongside the timing and location of HIV prevention activities, will give insight into the decline of HIV prevalence in Zimbabwe.

  2. Qualitative analysis of nonlinear incidence rate upon the behaviour of an epidemiological model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Xiaogui.

    1988-12-01

    Two theorems concerning the solutions of the system of differential equations describing an epidemiological model with nonlinear incidence rate per infective individual are demonstrated. 2 refs, 1 fig

  3. Proposing a Compartmental Model for Leprosy and Parameterizing Using Regional Incidence in Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Rebecca Lee

    2016-08-01

    Hansen's disease (HD), or leprosy, is still considered a public health risk in much of Brazil. Understanding the dynamics of the infection at a regional level can aid in identification of targets to improve control. A compartmental continuous-time model for leprosy dynamics was designed based on understanding of the biology of the infection. The transmission coefficients for the model and the rate of detection were fit for each region using Approximate Bayesian Computation applied to paucibacillary and multibacillary incidence data over the period of 2000 to 2010, and model fit was validated on incidence data from 2011 to 2012. Regional variation was noted in detection rate, with cases in the Midwest estimated to be infectious for 10 years prior to detection compared to 5 years for most other regions. Posterior predictions for the model estimated that elimination of leprosy as a public health risk would require, on average, 44-45 years in the three regions with the highest prevalence. The model is easily adaptable to other settings, and can be studied to determine the efficacy of improved case finding on leprosy control.

  4. Incidence of atrial fibrillation and its risk prediction model based on a prospective urban Han Chinese cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ding, L; Li, J; Wang, C; Li, X; Su, Q; Zhang, G; Xue, F

    2017-09-01

    Prediction models of atrial fibrillation (AF) have been developed; however, there was no AF prediction model validated in Chinese population. Therefore, we aimed to investigate the incidence of AF in urban Han Chinese health check-up population, as well as to develop AF prediction models using behavioral, anthropometric, biochemical, electrocardiogram (ECG) markers, as well as visit-to-visit variability (VVV) in blood pressures available in the routine health check-up. A total of 33 186 participants aged 45-85 years and free of AF at baseline were included in this cohort, to follow up for incident AF with an annually routine health check-up. Cox regression models were used to develop AF prediction model and 10-fold cross-validation was used to test the discriminatory accuracy of prediction model. We developed three prediction models, with age, sex, history of coronary heart disease (CHD), hypertension as predictors for simple model, with left high-amplitude waves, premature beats added for ECG model, and with age, sex, history of CHD and VVV in systolic and diabolic blood pressures as predictors for VVV model, to estimate risk of incident AF. The calibration of our models ranged from 1.001 to 1.004 (P for Hosmer Lemeshow test >0.05). The area under receiver operator characteristics curve were 78%, 80% and 82%, respectively, for predicting risk of AF. In conclusion, we have identified predictors of incident AF and developed prediction models for AF with variables readily available in routine health check-up.

  5. Cyber Incidents Involving Control Systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robert J. Turk

    2005-10-01

    The Analysis Function of the US-CERT Control Systems Security Center (CSSC) at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has prepared this report to document cyber security incidents for use by the CSSC. The description and analysis of incidents reported herein support three CSSC tasks: establishing a business case; increasing security awareness and private and corporate participation related to enhanced cyber security of control systems; and providing informational material to support model development and prioritize activities for CSSC. The stated mission of CSSC is to reduce vulnerability of critical infrastructure to cyber attack on control systems. As stated in the Incident Management Tool Requirements (August 2005) ''Vulnerability reduction is promoted by risk analysis that tracks actual risk, emphasizes high risk, determines risk reduction as a function of countermeasures, tracks increase of risk due to external influence, and measures success of the vulnerability reduction program''. Process control and Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) systems, with their reliance on proprietary networks and hardware, have long been considered immune to the network attacks that have wreaked so much havoc on corporate information systems. New research indicates this confidence is misplaced--the move to open standards such as Ethernet, Transmission Control Protocol/Internet Protocol, and Web technologies is allowing hackers to take advantage of the control industry's unawareness. Much of the available information about cyber incidents represents a characterization as opposed to an analysis of events. The lack of good analyses reflects an overall weakness in reporting requirements as well as the fact that to date there have been very few serious cyber attacks on control systems. Most companies prefer not to share cyber attack incident data because of potential financial repercussions. Uniform reporting requirements will do much to make this

  6. Modeling the incidence of citrus canker in leaves of the sweet orange variety ‘Pera’

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Danielle da Silva Pompeu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Citrus canker, caused by the bacterium Xanthomonas citri subsp. citri, is one of the most important diseases of citrus. The use of resistant genotypes plays an important role in the management and control of the disease and is the most environmentally sustainable approach to disease control. Citrus canker incidence was recorded in an experiment on nine genotypes of the sweet orange variety ‘Pera’ grafted on four rootstocks. The experiment was started in 2010 and the incidence of citrus canker on the leaves was recorded on a quarterly basis. The incidence data from the experiment were analyzed using a zero-inflated Beta regression model (RBIZ, which is the appropriate method to describe data with large numbers of zeros. Based on the residual analysis, the data fit the model well. The discrete component of the explanatory variable, rootstock, was not significant as a factor affecting the onset of disease, in contrast with the continuous component, genotype, which was significant in explaining the incidence of citrus canker.

  7. Incidence of loss of ability to walk 400 meters in a functionally limited older population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Milan; Cohen-Mansfield, Jiska; Ferrucci, Luigi; Leveille, Suzanne; Volpato, Stefano; de Rekeneire, Nathalie; Guralnik, Jack M

    2004-12-01

    To assess the incidence of and factors related to nondisabled but functionally limited older adults aged 75 to 85 years losing the ability to walk 400 m. Observational study with average follow-up of 21 months. Community. At baseline, 101 persons with objective signs of functional limitations and intact cognitive function agreed to participate in the study. Of these, 81 were able to walk 400 m at baseline, and 62 participated in the follow-up examination. Mobility disability was defined as an inability to complete a 400-m walk test. At baseline, eligible participants (n=81) had the ability to walk 400 m, scored between 4 and 9 on the Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB; range 0-12), and scored 18 or more on the Mini-Mental State Examination. Demographics, difficulty in daily activities, disease status, behavioral risk factors, and muscle strength were assessed at baseline and follow-up. Of 62 persons at follow-up, 21 (33.9%) developed incident mobility disability. The strongest predictors of loss of mobility were the time to complete the 400-m walk at baseline (odds ratio (OR)=1.6 per 1-minute difference, 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.04-2.45), and decline in SPPB score over the follow-up (OR=1.4 per 1-point difference, 95% CI=1.01-1.92). Older persons with functional limitations have a high rate of loss of ability to walk 400 m. The 400-m walk test is a highly relevant, discrete outcome that is an ideal target for testing preventive interventions in vulnerable older populations.

  8. Predictions of Quantum Molecular Dynamical Model between incident energy 50 and 1000 MeV/Nucleon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kumar Sanjeev

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In the present work, the Quantum Molecular Dynamical (QMD model is summarized as a useful tool for the incident energy range of 50 to 1000 MeV/nucleon in heavy-ion collisions. The model has reproduced the experimental results of various collaborations such as ALADIN, INDRA, PLASTIC BALL and FOPI upto a high level of accuracy for the phenomena like multifragmentation, collective flow as well as elliptical flow in the above prescribed energy range. The efforts are further in the direction to predict the symmetry energy in the wide incident energy range.

  9. The Incidence and gastrointestinal infectious risk of functional gastrointestinal disorders in a healthy US adult population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, Chad K; Gormley, Robert; Tribble, David R; Cash, Brooks D; Riddle, Mark S

    2011-01-01

    Functional gastrointestinal disorders (FGDs) are recognized sequelae of infectious gastroenteritis (IGE). Within the active duty military population, a group with known high IGE rates, the population-based incidence, risk factors, and attributable burden of care referable to FGD after IGE are poorly defined. Using electronic medical encounter data (1999-2007) on active duty US military, a matched, case-control study describing the epidemiology and risk determinants of FGD (irritable bowel syndrome (IBS), functional constipation (FC), functional diarrhea (FD), dyspepsia (D)) was conducted. Incidence rates and duration of FGD-related medical care were estimated, and conditional logistic regression was utilized to evaluate FGD risk after IGE. A total of 31,866 cases of FGD identified were distributed as follows: FC 55% (n=17,538), D 21.2% (n=6,750), FD 2.1% (n=674), IBS 28.5% (n=9,091). Previous IGE episodes were distributed as follows: specific bacterial pathogen (n=65, 1.2%), bacterial, with no pathogen specified (n=2155, 38.9%), protozoal (n=38, 0.7%), viral (n=3431, 61.9%). A significant association between IGE and all FGD (odds ratio (OR) 2.64; Phigh risk for IGE. When considering effective countermeasures and mitigation strategies, attention directed toward prevention as well as the acute and chronic sequelae of these infections is needed.

  10. After-discharges and seizures during pediatric extra-operative electrical cortical stimulation functional brain mapping: Incidence, thresholds, and determinants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aungaroon, Gewalin; Zea Vera, Alonso; Horn, Paul S; Byars, Anna W; Greiner, Hansel M; Tenney, Jeffrey R; Arthur, Todd M; Crone, Nathan E; Holland, Katherine D; Mangano, Francesco T; Arya, Ravindra

    2017-10-01

    This study examined the incidence, thresholds, and determinants of electrical cortical stimulation (ECS)-induced after-discharges (ADs) and seizures. Electrocorticograph recordings were reviewed to determine incidence of ECS-induced ADs and seizures. Multivariable analyses for predictors of AD/seizure occurrence and their thresholds were performed. In 122 patients, the incidence of ADs and seizures was 77% (94/122) and 35% (43/122) respectively. Males (odds ratio [OR] 2.92, 95% CI 1.21-7.38, p=0.02) and MRI-negative patients (OR 3.69, 95% CI 1.24-13.7, p=0.03) were found to have higher odds of ECS-induced ADs. A significant trend for decreasing AD thresholds with age was seen (regression co-efficient -0.151, 95% CI -0.267 to -0.035, p=0.011). ECS-induced seizures were more likely in patients with lateralized functional imaging (OR 6.62, 95% CI 1.36-55.56, p=0.036, for positron emission tomography) and presence of ADs (OR 3.50, 95% CI 1.12-13.36, p=0.043). ECS is associated with a high incidence of ADs and seizures. With age, current thresholds decrease and the probability for AD/seizure occurrence increases. ADs and seizures during ECS brain mapping are potentially hazardous and affect its functional validity. Thus, safer method(s) for brain mapping with improved neurophysiologic validity are desirable. Copyright © 2017 International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Hierarchical Bayesian modeling of spatio-temporal patterns of lung cancer incidence risk in Georgia, USA: 2000-2007

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Ping; Mu, Lan; Madden, Marguerite; Vena, John E.

    2014-10-01

    Lung cancer is the second most commonly diagnosed cancer in both men and women in Georgia, USA. However, the spatio-temporal patterns of lung cancer risk in Georgia have not been fully studied. Hierarchical Bayesian models are used here to explore the spatio-temporal patterns of lung cancer incidence risk by race and gender in Georgia for the period of 2000-2007. With the census tract level as the spatial scale and the 2-year period aggregation as the temporal scale, we compare a total of seven Bayesian spatio-temporal models including two under a separate modeling framework and five under a joint modeling framework. One joint model outperforms others based on the deviance information criterion. Results show that the northwest region of Georgia has consistently high lung cancer incidence risk for all population groups during the study period. In addition, there are inverse relationships between the socioeconomic status and the lung cancer incidence risk among all Georgian population groups, and the relationships in males are stronger than those in females. By mapping more reliable variations in lung cancer incidence risk at a relatively fine spatio-temporal scale for different Georgian population groups, our study aims to better support healthcare performance assessment, etiological hypothesis generation, and health policy making.

  12. Cognitive simulation of incident risks in the structure of loading and transport enterprise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shishkina, S. V.; Pristupa, Yu D.; Pavlova, L. D.; Fryanov, V. N.

    2017-09-01

    Organizational and technical system of a manufacturing enterprise was identified, which includes three subsystems: main production, industrial and social infrastructure. Based on the results of cognitive modeling, significant system concepts were identified that reduce the risks of incidents. The internal control influences formed in accordance with level of competence of heads of services, departments, sections, dispatchers, acting on the basis of regulations, job profiles. The second concept influencing the enterprise management system is personnel, which is assessed by the compliance of competencies of crane operators, loader operators, slingers, loaders, and acceptance/delivery agents to job responsibilities and labor functions. At a low level of professional competencies, the personnel does not fully comply with job duties and labor functions, the risk of an incident is maximal. The application of cognitive modeling allows us to identify the essential elements that ensure stable functioning of the system as a whole.

  13. Modelling malaria incidence with environmental dependency in a locality of Sudanese savannah area, Mali

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Demongeot Jacques

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The risk of Plasmodium falciparum infection is variable over space and time and this variability is related to environmental variability. Environmental factors affect the biological cycle of both vector and parasite. Despite this strong relationship, environmental effects have rarely been included in malaria transmission models. Remote sensing data on environment were incorporated into a temporal model of the transmission, to forecast the evolution of malaria epidemiology, in a locality of Sudanese savannah area. Methods A dynamic cohort was constituted in June 1996 and followed up until June 2001 in the locality of Bancoumana, Mali. The 15-day composite vegetation index (NDVI, issued from satellite imagery series (NOAA from July 1981 to December 2006, was used as remote sensing data. The statistical relationship between NDVI and incidence of P. falciparum infection was assessed by ARIMA analysis. ROC analysis provided an NDVI value for the prediction of an increase in incidence of parasitaemia. Malaria transmission was modelled using an SIRS-type model, adapted to Bancoumana's data. Environmental factors influenced vector mortality and aggressiveness, as well as length of the gonotrophic cycle. NDVI observations from 1981 to 2001 were used for the simulation of the extrinsic variable of a hidden Markov chain model. Observations from 2002 to 2006 served as external validation. Results The seasonal pattern of P. falciparum incidence was significantly explained by NDVI, with a delay of 15 days (p = 0.001. An NDVI threshold of 0.361 (p = 0.007 provided a Diagnostic Odd Ratio (DOR of 2.64 (CI95% [1.26;5.52]. The deterministic transmission model, with stochastic environmental factor, predicted an endemo-epidemic pattern of malaria infection. The incidences of parasitaemia were adequately modelled, using the observed NDVI as well as the NDVI simulations. Transmission pattern have been modelled and observed values were adequately

  14. A finite element propagation model for extracting normal incidence impedance in nonprogressive acoustic wave fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Willie R.; Jones, Michael G.; Tanner, Sharon E.; Parrott, Tony L.

    1995-01-01

    A propagation model method for extracting the normal incidence impedance of an acoustic material installed as a finite length segment in a wall of a duct carrying a nonprogressive wave field is presented. The method recasts the determination of the unknown impedance as the minimization of the normalized wall pressure error function. A finite element propagation model is combined with a coarse/fine grid impedance plane search technique to extract the impedance of the material. Results are presented for three different materials for which the impedance is known. For each material, the input data required for the prediction scheme was computed from modal theory and then contaminated by random error. The finite element method reproduces the known impedance of each material almost exactly for random errors typical of those found in many measurement environments. Thus, the method developed here provides a means for determining the impedance of materials in a nonprogressirve wave environment such as that usually encountered in a commercial aircraft engine and most laboratory settings.

  15. Dynamic Behavior for an SIRS Model with Nonlinear Incidence Rate and Treatment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junhong Li

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper considers an SIRS model with nonlinear incidence rate and treatment. It is assumed that susceptible and infectious individuals have constant immigration rates. We investigate the existence of equilibrium and prove the global asymptotical stable results of the endemic equilibrium. We then obtained that the model undergoes a Hopf bifurcation and existences a limit cycle. Some numerical simulations are given to illustrate the analytical results.

  16. Urinary tract infection in renal transplant recipients: incidence, risk factors, and impact on graft function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camargo, L F; Esteves, A B A; Ulisses, L R S; Rivelli, G G; Mazzali, M

    2014-01-01

    Urinary tract infection (UTI) is the most common infection posttransplant. However, the risk factors for and the impact of UTIs remain controversial. The aim of this study was to identify the incidence of posttransplant UTIs in a series of renal transplant recipients from deceased donors. Secondary objectives were to identify: (1) the most frequent infectious agents; (2) risk factors related to donor; (3) risk factors related to recipients; and (4) impact of UTI on graft function. This was a retrospective analysis of medical records from renal transplant patients from January to December 2010. Local ethics committee approved the protocol. The incidence of UTI in this series was 34.2%. Risk factors for UTI were older age, (independent of gender), biopsy-proven acute rejection episodes, and kidneys from deceased donors (United Network for Organ Sharing criteria). For female patients, the number of pretransplant pregnancies was an additional risk factor. Recurrent UTI was observed in 44% of patients from the UTI group. The most common infectious agents were Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae, for both isolated and recurrent UTI. No difference in renal graft function or immunosuppressive therapy was observed between groups after the 1-year follow-up. In this series, older age, previous pregnancy, kidneys from expanded criteria donors, and biopsy-proven acute rejection episodes were risk factors for posttransplant UTI. Recurrence of UTI was observed in 44%, with no negative impact on graft function or survival. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Program for accident and incident management support, AIMS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Putra, M.A.

    1993-12-01

    A prototype of an advisory computer program is presented which could be used in monitoring and analyzing an ongoing incident in a nuclear power plant. The advisory computer program, called the Accident and Incident Management Support (AIMS), focuses on processing a set of data that is to be transmitted from a nuclear power plant to a national or regional emergency center during an incident. The AIMS program will assess the reactor conditions by processing the measured plant parameters. The applied model of the power plant contains a level of complexity that is comparable with the simplified plant model that the power plant operator uses. A standardized decay heat function and a steam water property library is used in the integral balance equations for mass and energy. A simulation of the station blackout accident of the Borssele plant is used to test the program. The program predicts successively: (1) the time of dryout of the steam generators, (2) the time of saturation of the primary system, and (3) the onset of core uncovery. The coolant system with the actual water levels will be displayed on the screen. (orig./HP)

  18. Application of improved degree of grey incidence analysis model in fault diagnosis of steam generator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao Xinwen; Ren Xin

    2014-01-01

    In order to further reduce the misoperation after the faults occurring of nuclear-powered system in marine, the model based on weighted degree of grey incidence of optimized entropy and fault diagnosis system are proposed, and some simulation experiments about the typical faults of steam generator of nuclear-powered system in marine are conducted. And the results show that the diagnosis system based on improved degree of grey incidence model is more stable and its conclusion is right, and can satisfy diagnosis in real time, and higher faults subjection degrees resolving power can be achieved. (authors)

  19. Mathematical modeling of HIV prevention measures including pre-exposure prophylaxis on HIV incidence in South Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Sun Bean; Yoon, Myoungho; Ku, Nam Su; Kim, Min Hyung; Song, Je Eun; Ahn, Jin Young; Jeong, Su Jin; Kim, Changsoo; Kwon, Hee-Dae; Lee, Jeehyun; Smith, Davey M; Choi, Jun Yong

    2014-01-01

    Multiple prevention measures have the possibility of impacting HIV incidence in South Korea, including early diagnosis, early treatment, and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). We investigated how each of these interventions could impact the local HIV epidemic, especially among men who have sex with men (MSM), who have become the major risk group in South Korea. A mathematical model was used to estimate the effects of each these interventions on the HIV epidemic in South Korea over the next 40 years, as compared to the current situation. We constructed a mathematical model of HIV infection among MSM in South Korea, dividing the MSM population into seven groups, and simulated the effects of early antiretroviral therapy (ART), early diagnosis, PrEP, and combination interventions on the incidence and prevalence of HIV infection, as compared to the current situation that would be expected without any new prevention measures. Overall, the model suggested that the most effective prevention measure would be PrEP. Even though PrEP effectiveness could be lessened by increased unsafe sex behavior, PrEP use was still more beneficial than the current situation. In the model, early diagnosis of HIV infection was also effectively decreased HIV incidence. However, early ART did not show considerable effectiveness. As expected, it would be most effective if all interventions (PrEP, early diagnosis and early treatment) were implemented together. This model suggests that PrEP and early diagnosis could be a very effective way to reduce HIV incidence in South Korea among MSM.

  20. Extensions and Applications of the Cox-Aalen Survival Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scheike, Thomas H.; Zhang, Mei-Jie

    2003-01-01

    Aalen additive risk model; competing risk; counting processes; Cox model; cumulative incidence function; goodness of fit; prediction of survival probability; time-varying effects......Aalen additive risk model; competing risk; counting processes; Cox model; cumulative incidence function; goodness of fit; prediction of survival probability; time-varying effects...

  1. Transfer Function Identification Using Orthogonal Fourier Transform Modeling Functions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morelli, Eugene A.

    2013-01-01

    A method for transfer function identification, including both model structure determination and parameter estimation, was developed and demonstrated. The approach uses orthogonal modeling functions generated from frequency domain data obtained by Fourier transformation of time series data. The method was applied to simulation data to identify continuous-time transfer function models and unsteady aerodynamic models. Model fit error, estimated model parameters, and the associated uncertainties were used to show the effectiveness of the method for identifying accurate transfer function models from noisy data.

  2. Extended incident-angle dependence formula of sputter yield

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ono, T.; Shibata, K.; Muramoto, T.; Kenmotsu, T.; Li Z.; Kawamura, T.

    2006-06-01

    We extend a new semi-empirical formula for incident-angle dependence of normalized sputter yield that includes the contribution to sputter yield from the direct knock-out process that was not considered in the previously proposed one. Three parameters included in the new one are estimated for data calculated with ACAT code for D + ions incident obliquely on C, Fe and W materials in incident-energy regions from several tens of eV to 10 keV. Then, the parameters are expressed with functions of incident energy. The formula with the functions derived well reproduces that using the ACAT data in the whole energy range. (author)

  3. Threshold Dynamics in Stochastic SIRS Epidemic Models with Nonlinear Incidence and Vaccination

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lei Wang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the dynamical behaviors for a stochastic SIRS epidemic model with nonlinear incidence and vaccination are investigated. In the models, the disease transmission coefficient and the removal rates are all affected by noise. Some new basic properties of the models are found. Applying these properties, we establish a series of new threshold conditions on the stochastically exponential extinction, stochastic persistence, and permanence in the mean of the disease with probability one for the models. Furthermore, we obtain a sufficient condition on the existence of unique stationary distribution for the model. Finally, a series of numerical examples are introduced to illustrate our main theoretical results and some conjectures are further proposed.

  4. Modeling time to recovery and initiating event frequency for loss of off-site power incidents at nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iman, R.L.; Hora, S.C.

    1988-01-01

    Industry data representing the time to recovery of loss of off-site power at nuclear power plants for 63 incidents caused by plant-centered losses, grid losses, or severe weather losses are fit with exponential, lognormal, gamma and Weibull probability models. A Bayesian analysis is used to compare the adequacy of each of these models and to provide uncertainty bounds on each of the fitted models. A composite model that combines the probability models fitted to each of the three sources of data is presented as a method for predicting the time to recovery of loss of off-site power. The composite model is very general and can be made site specific by making adjustments on the models used, such as might occur due to the type of switchyard configuration or type of grid, and by adjusting the weights on the individual models, such as might occur with weather conditions existing at a particular plant. Adjustments in the composite model are shown for different models used for switchyard configuration and for different weights due to weather. Bayesian approaches are also presented for modeling the frequency of initiating events leading to loss of off-site power. One Bayesian model assumes that all plants share a common incidence rate for loss of off-site power, while the other Bayesian approach models the incidence rate for each plant relative to the incidence rates of all other plants. Combining the Bayesian models for the frequency of the initiating events with the composite Bayesian model for recovery provides the necessary vehicle for a complete model that incorporates uncertainty into a probabilistic risk assessment

  5. Serum uric acid to creatinine ratio: A predictor of incident chronic kidney disease in type 2 diabetes mellitus patients with preserved kidney function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Liubao; Huang, Liji; Wu, Haidi; Lou, Qinglin; Bian, Rongwen

    2017-05-01

    Serum uric acid has shown to be a predictor of renal disease progression in most but not all studies. This study aims to test whether renal function-normalized serum uric acid is superior to serum uric acid as the predictor of incident chronic kidney disease in type 2 diabetes mellitus patients. In this study, 1339 type 2 diabetes mellitus patients with estimated glomerular filtration rate ⩾60 mL/min/1.73 m 2 and normouricemia were included. Renal function-normalized serum uric acid was calculated using serum uric acid/creatinine. Cox regression analysis was used to estimate the association between serum uric acid, renal function-normalized serum uric acid and incident chronic kidney disease. In total, 74 (5.53%) patients developed to chronic kidney disease 3 or greater during a median follow-up of 4 years, with older ages, longer diabetes duration and lower estimated glomerular filtration rate at baseline. The decline rate of estimated glomerular filtration rate was positively correlated with serum uric acid/creatinine ( r = 0.219, p uric acid ( r = 0.005, p = 0.858). Moreover, multivariate analysis revealed that serum uric acid was not an independent risk factor for incident chronic kidney disease ( p = 0.055), whereas serum uric acid to creatinine ratio was significantly associated with incident chronic kidney disease independently of potential confounders including baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate. serum uric acid to creatinine ratio might be a better predictor of incident chronic kidney disease in type 2 diabetes mellitus patients.

  6. Spatial Interaction Modeling to Identify Potentially Exposed Populations during RDD or IND Terrorism Incidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Regens, J.L.; Gunter, J.T.; Gupta, S.

    2009-01-01

    Homeland Security Presidential Directive no.5 (HSPD-5) Management of Domestic Incidents and Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Planning Guidance for Protection and Recovery Following Radiological Dispersal Device (RDD) and Improvised Nuclear Device (IND) Incidents underscore the need to delineate radiological emergency guidance applicable to remedial action and recovery following an RDD or IND incident. Rapid delineation of the population potentially exposed to ionizing radiation from fallout during terrorist incidents involving RDDs or low-yield nuclear devices (≤ 20 KT) is necessary for effective medical response and incident management as part of the recovery process. This paper illustrates the application of spatial interaction models to allocate population data for a representative U.S. urban area (≅1.3M people; 1,612.27 km 2 area) at a geographical scale relevant for accurately estimating risk given dose concentrations. Estimated total dose equivalents (TEDE) are calculated for isopleths moving away from the detonation point for typical release scenarios. Population is estimated within the TEDE zones using Euclidean distances between zip code polygon centroids generated in ArcGIS version 9.1 with distance decay determined by regression analysis to apportion origin-destination pairs to a population count and density matrix on a spatial basis for daytime and night-time release scenarios. (authors)

  7. A Novel Approach for Analysis of the Log-Linear Age-Period-Cohort Model: Application to Lung Cancer Incidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tengiz Mdzinarishvili

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available A simple, computationally efficient procedure for analyses of the time period and birth cohort effects on the distribution of the age-specific incidence rates of cancers is proposed. Assuming that cohort effects for neighboring cohorts are almost equal and using the Log-Linear Age-Period-Cohort Model, this procedure allows one to evaluate temporal trends and birth cohort variations of any type of cancer without prior knowledge of the hazard function. This procedure was used to estimate the influence of time period and birth cohort effects on the distribution of the age-specific incidence rates of first primary, microscopically confirmed lung cancer (LC cases from the SEER9 database. It was shown that since 1975, the time period effect coefficients for men increase up to 1980 and then decrease until 2004. For women, these coefficients increase from 1975 up to 1990 and then remain nearly constant. The LC birth cohort effect coefficients for men and women increase from the cohort of 1890–94 until the cohort of 1925–29, then decrease until the cohort of 1950–54 and then remain almost unchanged. Overall, LC incidence rates, adjusted by period and cohort effects, increase up to the age of about 72–75, turn over, and then fall after the age of 75–78. The peak of the adjusted rates in men is around the age of 77–78, while in women, it is around the age of 72–73. Therefore, these results suggest that the age distribution of the incidence rates in men and women fall at old ages.

  8. Predicting Cumulative Incidence Probability by Direct Binomial Regression

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scheike, Thomas H.; Zhang, Mei-Jie

    Binomial modelling; cumulative incidence probability; cause-specific hazards; subdistribution hazard......Binomial modelling; cumulative incidence probability; cause-specific hazards; subdistribution hazard...

  9. Incidents analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Francois, P.

    1996-01-01

    We undertook a study programme at the end of 1991. To start with, we performed some exploratory studies aimed at learning some preliminary lessons on this type of analysis: Assessment of the interest of probabilistic incident analysis; possibility of using PSA scenarios; skills and resources required. At the same time, EPN created a working group whose assignment was to define a new approach for analysis of incidents on NPPs. This working group gave thought to both aspects of Operating Feedback that EPN wished to improve: Analysis of significant incidents; analysis of potential consequences. We took part in the work of this group, and for the second aspects, we proposed a method based on an adaptation of the event-tree method in order to establish a link between existing PSA models and actual incidents. Since PSA provides an exhaustive database of accident scenarios applicable to the two most common types of units in France, they are obviously of interest for this sort of analysis. With this method we performed some incident analyses, and at the same time explores some methods employed abroad, particularly ASP (Accident Sequence Precursor, a method used by the NRC). Early in 1994 EDF began a systematic analysis programme. The first, transient phase will set up methods and an organizational structure. 7 figs

  10. Incidents analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Francois, P

    1997-12-31

    We undertook a study programme at the end of 1991. To start with, we performed some exploratory studies aimed at learning some preliminary lessons on this type of analysis: Assessment of the interest of probabilistic incident analysis; possibility of using PSA scenarios; skills and resources required. At the same time, EPN created a working group whose assignment was to define a new approach for analysis of incidents on NPPs. This working group gave thought to both aspects of Operating Feedback that EPN wished to improve: Analysis of significant incidents; analysis of potential consequences. We took part in the work of this group, and for the second aspects, we proposed a method based on an adaptation of the event-tree method in order to establish a link between existing PSA models and actual incidents. Since PSA provides an exhaustive database of accident scenarios applicable to the two most common types of units in France, they are obviously of interest for this sort of analysis. With this method we performed some incident analyses, and at the same time explores some methods employed abroad, particularly ASP (Accident Sequence Precursor, a method used by the NRC). Early in 1994 EDF began a systematic analysis programme. The first, transient phase will set up methods and an organizational structure. 7 figs.

  11. Development and evaluation of a new simulation model for interactive training of the medical response to major incidents and disasters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lennquist Montán, K; Hreckovski, B; Dobson, B; Örtenwall, P; Montán, C; Khorram-Manesh, A; Lennquist, S

    2014-08-01

    The need for and benefit of simulation models for interactive training of the response to major incidents and disasters has been increasingly recognized during recent years. One of the advantages with such models is that all components of the chain of response can be trained simultaneously. This includes the important communication/coordination between different units, which has been reported as the most common cause of failure. Very few of the presently available simulation models have been suitable for the simultaneous training of decision-making on all levels of the response. In this study, a new simulation model, originally developed for the scientific evaluation of methodology, was adapted to and developed for the postgraduate courses in Medical Response to Major Incidents (MRMI) organized under the auspices of the European Society for Trauma and Emergency Surgery (ESTES). The aim of the present study was to describe this development process, the model it resulted in, and the evaluation of this model. The simulation model was based on casualty cards giving all information normally available for the triage and primary management of traumatized patients. The condition of the patients could be changed by the instructor according to the time passed since the time of injury and treatments performed. Priority of the casualties as well as given treatments could be indicated on the cards by movable markers, which also gave the time required for every treatment. The exercises were run with real consumption of time and resources for all measures performed. The magnetized cards were moved by the trainees through the scene, through the transport lines, and through the hospitals where all functions were trained. For every patient was given the definitive diagnosis and the times within certain treatments had to be done to avoid preventable mortality and complications, which could be related to trauma-scores. The methodology was tested in nine MRMI courses with a total of

  12. Nonparametric Transfer Function Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jun M.; Chen, Rong; Yao, Qiwei

    2009-01-01

    In this paper a class of nonparametric transfer function models is proposed to model nonlinear relationships between ‘input’ and ‘output’ time series. The transfer function is smooth with unknown functional forms, and the noise is assumed to be a stationary autoregressive-moving average (ARMA) process. The nonparametric transfer function is estimated jointly with the ARMA parameters. By modeling the correlation in the noise, the transfer function can be estimated more efficiently. The parsimonious ARMA structure improves the estimation efficiency in finite samples. The asymptotic properties of the estimators are investigated. The finite-sample properties are illustrated through simulations and one empirical example. PMID:20628584

  13. Numerical Prediction of Green Water Incidents

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, K. B.; Mayer, Stefan

    2004-01-01

    loads on a moored FPSO exposed to head sea waves. Two cases are investigated: first, green water ona fixed vessel has been analysed, where resulting waterheight on deck, and impact pressure on a deck mounted structure have been computed. These results have been compared to experimental data obtained......Green water loads on moored or sailing ships occur when an incoming wave signigicantly exceeds the freeboard and water runs onto the deck. In this paper, a Navier-Stokes solver with a free surface capturing scheme (i.e. the VOF model; Hirt and Nichols, 1981) is used to numerically model green water...... by Greco (2001) and show very favourable agreement. Second, a full green water incident, including vessel motions has been modelled. In these computations, the vertical motion has been modelled by the use of transfer functions for heave and pitch, but the rotational contribution from the pitch motion has...

  14. Si Nanoribbons on Ag(110) Studied by Grazing-Incidence X-Ray Diffraction, Scanning Tunneling Microscopy, and Density-Functional Theory: Evidence of a Pentamer Chain Structure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prévot, Geoffroy; Hogan, Conor; Leoni, Thomas; Bernard, Romain; Moyen, Eric; Masson, Laurence

    2016-12-30

    We report a combined grazing incidence x-ray diffraction (GIXD), scanning tunneling microscopy (STM), and density-functional theory (DFT) study which clearly elucidates the atomic structure of the Si nanoribbons grown on the missing-row reconstructed Ag(110) surface. Our study allows us to discriminate between the theoretical models published in the literature, including the most stable atomic configurations and those based on a missing-row reconstructed Ag(110) surface. GIXD measurements unambiguously validate the pentamer model grown on the reconstructed surface, obtained from DFT. This pentamer atomistic model accurately matches the high-resolution STM images of the Si nanoribbons adsorbed on Ag(110). Our study closes the long-debated atomic structure of the Si nanoribbons grown on Ag(110) and definitively excludes a honeycomb structure similar to that of freestanding silicene.

  15. Preliminary results on σZ and τint fluctuations as a function of incident energy in dissipative heavy ion collisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berceanu, I.; Andronic, A.; Duma, M.

    1998-01-01

    Non-statistical fluctuations in the excitation functions (EF) of dissipative heavy ion collisions (DHIC) was rather unexpected due to the fact that cross sections are always obtained on a 'coarse cell' of TKEL and θ cm . The contribution of a large number of microchannels, N, is expected to attenuate the amplitude of such fluctuations as σ(E) has a χ 2 distribution with 2N degrees of freedom. In the framework of the Partially Overlapping Molecular Levels the observation of the fluctuations of the cross section as a function of the incident energy is explained by the fact that the levels of the dinuclear system formed in the first stage of a dissipative process are excited in a region of low density situated in the vicinity of the yrast line. The time evolution of dinuclear (DNS) system with different mass asymmetries with the total mass of the nuclear system 19 F + 27 Al system configuration and its time evolution, the excitation function for this system has been measured between 111.4 MeV and 136.9 MeV with a 250 keV energy step. Fluctuations with amplitude larger than the statistical errors were observed. Large Z and angular cross correlation coefficients show their nonstatistical nature. An average energy correlation width of 170±65 keV, to which corresponds a DNS lifetime τ int (3.9 ± 1.1)·10 -21 s, was obtained by the energy autocorrelation function (EAF). The experimental EAF secondary structure period agrees with that predicted by Kun model when the deformation of the outgoing fragments is taken into account. To get more insight in the reaction mechanism, the dependence of the charge distribution variance for two total kinetic energy loss windows, W1 = 20 ± 2.5 and W2 = 30 ± 2.5 MeV, was obtained as a function of E lab . The second moments of the experimental charge distributions have been calculated and the obtained values were represented for W1 and W2. Fluctuations with quite large amplitude are present. In a transport approach of deep inelastic

  16. A spatiotemporal mixed model to assess the influence of environmental and socioeconomic factors on the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lianfa Li

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background As a common infectious disease, hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD is affected by multiple environmental and socioeconomic factors, and its pathogenesis is complex. Furthermore, the transmission of HFMD is characterized by strong spatial clustering and autocorrelation, and the classical statistical approach may be biased without consideration of spatial autocorrelation. In this paper, we propose to embed spatial characteristics into a spatiotemporal additive model to improve HFMD incidence assessment. Methods Using incidence data (6439 samples from 137 monitoring district for Shandong Province, China, along with meteorological, environmental and socioeconomic spatial and spatiotemporal covariate data, we proposed a spatiotemporal mixed model to estimate HFMD incidence. Geo-additive regression was used to model the non-linear effects of the covariates on the incidence risk of HFMD in univariate and multivariate models. Furthermore, the spatial effect was constructed to capture spatial autocorrelation at the sub-regional scale, and clusters (hotspots of high risk were generated using spatiotemporal scanning statistics as a predictor. Linear and non-linear effects were compared to illustrate the usefulness of non-linear associations. Patterns of spatial effects and clusters were explored to illustrate the variation of the HFMD incidence across geographical sub-regions. To validate our approach, 10-fold cross-validation was conducted. Results The results showed that there were significant non-linear associations of the temporal index, spatiotemporal meteorological factors and spatial environmental and socioeconomic factors with HFMD incidence. Furthermore, there were strong spatial autocorrelation and clusters for the HFMD incidence. Spatiotemporal meteorological parameters, the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI, the temporal index, spatiotemporal clustering and spatial effects played important roles as predictors in

  17. Pollutant source identification model for water pollution incidents in small straight rivers based on genetic algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Shou-ping; Xin, Xiao-kang

    2017-07-01

    Identification of pollutant sources for river pollution incidents is an important and difficult task in the emergency rescue, and an intelligent optimization method can effectively compensate for the weakness of traditional methods. An intelligent model for pollutant source identification has been established using the basic genetic algorithm (BGA) as an optimization search tool and applying an analytic solution formula of one-dimensional unsteady water quality equation to construct the objective function. Experimental tests show that the identification model is effective and efficient: the model can accurately figure out the pollutant amounts or positions no matter single pollution source or multiple sources. Especially when the population size of BGA is set as 10, the computing results are sound agree with analytic results for a single source amount and position identification, the relative errors are no more than 5 %. For cases of multi-point sources and multi-variable, there are some errors in computing results for the reasons that there exist many possible combinations of the pollution sources. But, with the help of previous experience to narrow the search scope, the relative errors of the identification results are less than 5 %, which proves the established source identification model can be used to direct emergency responses.

  18. Spatial Distribution of Black Bear Incident Reports in Michigan.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jamie E McFadden-Hiller

    Full Text Available Interactions between humans and carnivores have existed for centuries due to competition for food and space. American black bears are increasing in abundance and populations are expanding geographically in many portions of its range, including areas that are also increasing in human density, often resulting in associated increases in human-bear conflict (hereafter, bear incidents. We used public reports of bear incidents in Michigan, USA, from 2003-2011 to assess the relative contributions of ecological and anthropogenic variables in explaining the spatial distribution of bear incidents and estimated the potential risk of bear incidents. We used weighted Normalized Difference Vegetation Index mean as an index of primary productivity, region (i.e., Upper Peninsula or Lower Peninsula, primary and secondary road densities, and percentage land cover type within 6.5-km2 circular buffers around bear incidents and random points. We developed 22 a priori models and used generalized linear models and Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC to rank models. The global model was the best compromise between model complexity and model fit (w = 0.99, with a ΔAIC 8.99 units from the second best performing model. We found that as deciduous forest cover increased, the probability of bear incident occurrence increased. Among the measured anthropogenic variables, cultivated crops and primary roads were the most important in our AIC-best model and were both positively related to the probability of bear incident occurrence. The spatial distribution of relative bear incident risk varied markedly throughout Michigan. Forest cover fragmented with agriculture and other anthropogenic activities presents an environment that likely facilitates bear incidents. Our map can help wildlife managers identify areas of bear incident occurrence, which in turn can be used to help develop strategies aimed at reducing incidents. Researchers and wildlife managers can use similar mapping

  19. Spatial Distribution of Black Bear Incident Reports in Michigan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McFadden-Hiller, Jamie E; Beyer, Dean E; Belant, Jerrold L

    2016-01-01

    Interactions between humans and carnivores have existed for centuries due to competition for food and space. American black bears are increasing in abundance and populations are expanding geographically in many portions of its range, including areas that are also increasing in human density, often resulting in associated increases in human-bear conflict (hereafter, bear incidents). We used public reports of bear incidents in Michigan, USA, from 2003-2011 to assess the relative contributions of ecological and anthropogenic variables in explaining the spatial distribution of bear incidents and estimated the potential risk of bear incidents. We used weighted Normalized Difference Vegetation Index mean as an index of primary productivity, region (i.e., Upper Peninsula or Lower Peninsula), primary and secondary road densities, and percentage land cover type within 6.5-km2 circular buffers around bear incidents and random points. We developed 22 a priori models and used generalized linear models and Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) to rank models. The global model was the best compromise between model complexity and model fit (w = 0.99), with a ΔAIC 8.99 units from the second best performing model. We found that as deciduous forest cover increased, the probability of bear incident occurrence increased. Among the measured anthropogenic variables, cultivated crops and primary roads were the most important in our AIC-best model and were both positively related to the probability of bear incident occurrence. The spatial distribution of relative bear incident risk varied markedly throughout Michigan. Forest cover fragmented with agriculture and other anthropogenic activities presents an environment that likely facilitates bear incidents. Our map can help wildlife managers identify areas of bear incident occurrence, which in turn can be used to help develop strategies aimed at reducing incidents. Researchers and wildlife managers can use similar mapping techniques to

  20. Modelling the incidence and mortality of psychotic disorders: data from the second Australian national survey of psychosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saha, Sukanta; Whiteford, Harvey; McGrath, John

    2014-04-01

    The aim of this study was to model estimates related to (a) the incidence of psychotic disorders and (b) the mortality associated with these disorders based on a large, population-based prevalence study. Data were drawn from the second national survey of adults with psychotic disorders conducted in seven Australian catchment areas during March to December 2010. To generate incidence rate estimates, we identified recent onset cases recruited as part of the prevalence study and then imputed population-based incidence rates using a set of conservative assumptions. Similarly, for mortality rates, we identified individuals who had died after being identified as 'screen-positive' for psychosis, but prior to full clinical assessment. Using a set of conservative assumptions, we then used these estimates to infer population-based mortality rates. Based on our models, we estimated that the incidence rate for psychotic disorders was 28 cases per 100,000 population. The rate estimates were significantly higher in males than females, with an overall male:female ratio of 1.57:1. Incidence rate estimates peaked in the youngest age group (18-24 years). The adjusted mortality rate estimated during the whole period of observation was 12.5 per 1000 persons, with a standardised mortality ratio of 5.5. Using treated prevalence data and observed deaths with appropriate algorithms, we were able to impute incidence and mortality rates for psychotic disorders consistent with the published literature. While the second national survey of psychotic disorders was not designed to identify mortality, our estimates provide a stark reminder of the increased mortality associated with these disorders.

  1. Modelling the bidirectional reflectance distribution functions (BRDF of sea areas polluted by oil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zbigniew Otremba

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper discusses the possibilities of modelling the bi-directional reflectance distribution function (BRDF in sea areas polluted by oil. Three sea basin models are considered: a coastal one free of oil, one polluted by an oil film and one polluted by an oil emulsion. The following concentrations of oil were compared: for the film, 1 cm3 of oil per 1 m2 water surface, for the emulsion 1 cm3 of oil in 1 m3 of water. The optical properties of Romashkino crude oil were taken into consideration, as were various angles of incident solar light. The conversion of BRDFs into a directional distribution of the optical contrast of polluted areas is demonstrated.

  2. Resveratrol Reduces the Incidence of Portal Vein System Thrombosis after Splenectomy in a Rat Fibrosis Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Meng; Xue, Wanli; Ma, Zhenhua; Bai, Jigang

    2016-01-01

    Purpose. To investigate the preventive effect of resveratrol (RES) on the formation of portal vein system thrombosis (PVST) in a rat fibrosis model. Methods. A total of 64 male SD rats, weighing 200–300 g, were divided into five groups: Sham operation, Splenectomy I, Splenectomy II, RES, and low molecular weight heparin (LMWH), with the former two groups as nonfibrosis controls. Blood samples were subjected to biochemical assays. Platelet apoptosis was measured by flow cytometry. All rats were euthanized for PVST detection one week after operation. Results. No PVST occurred in nonfibrosis controls. Compared to Splenectomy II, the incidences of PVST in RES and LMWH groups were significantly decreased (both p Splenectomy II (all p splenectomy in cirrhotic rat. Regulation of platelet function and induction of platelet apoptosis might be the underlying mechanisms. PMID:27433290

  3. The role of multiple regression and exploratory data analysis in the development of leukemia incidence risk models for comparison of radionuclide air stack emissions from nuclear and coal power industries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prybutok, V.R.

    1995-01-01

    Risk associated with power generation must be identified to make intelligent choices between alternate power technologies. Radionuclide air stack emissions for a single coal plant and a single nuclear plant are used to compute the single plant leukemia incidence risk and total industry leukemia incidence risk. Leukemia incidence is the response variable as a function of radionuclide bone dose for the six proposed dose response curves considered. During normal operation a coal plant has higher radionuclide emissions than a nuclear plant and the coal industry has a higher leukaemia incidence risk than the nuclear industry, unless a nuclear accident occurs. Variation of nuclear accident size allows quantification of the impact of accidents on the total industry leukemia incidence risk comparison. The leukemia incidence risk is quantified as the number of accidents of a given size for the nuclear industry leukemia incidence risk to equal the coal industry leukemia incidence risk. The general linear model is used to develop equations that relate the accident frequency required for equal industry risks to the magnitude of the nuclear emission. Exploratory data analysis revealed that the relationship between the natural log of accident number versus the natural log of accident size is linear. (Author)

  4. A forecasting model for dengue incidence in the District of Gampaha, Sri Lanka.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Withanage, Gayan P; Viswakula, Sameera D; Nilmini Silva Gunawardena, Y I; Hapugoda, Menaka D

    2018-04-24

    Dengue is one of the major health problems in Sri Lanka causing an enormous social and economic burden to the country. An accurate early warning system can enhance the efficiency of preventive measures. The aim of the study was to develop and validate a simple accurate forecasting model for the District of Gampaha, Sri Lanka. Three time-series regression models were developed using monthly rainfall, rainy days, temperature, humidity, wind speed and retrospective dengue incidences over the period January 2012 to November 2015 for the District of Gampaha, Sri Lanka. Various lag times were analyzed to identify optimum forecasting periods including interactions of multiple lags. The models were validated using epidemiological data from December 2015 to November 2017. Prepared models were compared based on Akaike's information criterion, Bayesian information criterion and residual analysis. The selected model forecasted correctly with mean absolute errors of 0.07 and 0.22, and root mean squared errors of 0.09 and 0.28, for training and validation periods, respectively. There were no dengue epidemics observed in the district during the training period and nine outbreaks occurred during the forecasting period. The proposed model captured five outbreaks and correctly rejected 14 within the testing period of 24 months. The Pierce skill score of the model was 0.49, with a receiver operating characteristic of 86% and 92% sensitivity. The developed weather based forecasting model allows warnings of impending dengue outbreaks and epidemics in advance of one month with high accuracy. Depending upon climatic factors, the previous month's dengue cases had a significant effect on the dengue incidences of the current month. The simple, precise and understandable forecasting model developed could be used to manage limited public health resources effectively for patient management, vector surveillance and intervention programmes in the district.

  5. Global Stability of an Eco-Epidemiological Model with Time Delay and Saturation Incidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shuxue Mao

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available We investigate a delayed eco-epidemiological model with disease in predator and saturation incidence. First, by comparison arguments, the permanence of the model is discussed. Then, we study the local stability of each equilibrium of the model by analyzing the corresponding characteristic equations and find that Hopf bifurcation occurs when the delay τ passes through a sequence of critical values. Next, by means of an iteration technique, sufficient conditions are derived for the global stability of the disease-free planar equilibrium and the positive equilibrium. Numerical examples are carried out to illustrate the analytical results.

  6. The interaction evolution model of mass incidents with delay in a social network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huo, Liang'an; Ma, Chenyang

    2017-10-01

    Recent years have witnessed rapid development of information technology. Today, modern media is widely used for the purpose of spreading information rapidly and widely. In particular, through micro-blog promotions, individuals tend to express their viewpoints and spread information on the internet, which could easily lead to public opinions. Moreover, government authorities also disseminate official information to guide public opinion and eliminate any incorrect conjecture. In this paper, a dynamical model with two delays is investigated to exhibit the interaction evolution between the public and official opinion fields in network mass incidents. Based on the theory of differential equations, the interaction mechanism between two public opinion fields in a micro-blog environment is analyzed. Two delays are proposed in the model to depict the response delays of public and official opinion fields. Some stable conditions are obtained, which shows that Hopf bifurcation can occur as delays cross critical values. Further, some numerical simulations are carried out to verify theoretical results. Our model indicates that there exists a golden time for government intervention, which should be emphasized given the impact of modern media and inaccurate rumors. If the government releases official information during the golden time, mass incidents on the internet can be controlled effectively.

  7. Incident Command System - Environmental Unit responsibilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hillman, S. O.

    1997-01-01

    The Incident Command System (ICS) for crisis management, used for response to oil spills by the Alyeska Pipeline Service Company throughout its facilities, including the Trans Alaska Pipeline and the Valdez Marine Terminal, was described. Special attention was given to the Environmental Unit within the ICS which functions as a primary support unit for the Incident Operations Section. Details of the Unit's function were provided. These include the collection, evaluation and dissemination of information on all environmental issues concerning the crisis, provision of advice and direction on environmental aspects, and up-front agency interaction. A checklist of tasks is included. 7 refs

  8. Extinction and Ergodic Property of Stochastic SIS Epidemic Model with Nonlinear Incidence Rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qixing Han

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available We investigate a stochastic SIS model with nonlinear incidence rate. We show that there exists a unique nonnegative solution to the system, and condition for the infectious individuals I(t to be extinct is given. Moreover, we prove that the system has ergodic property. Finally, computer simulations are carried out to verify our results.

  9. Time series analysis of dengue incidence in Guadeloupe, French West Indies: Forecasting models using climate variables as predictors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruche Guy

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background During the last decades, dengue viruses have spread throughout the Americas region, with an increase in the number of severe forms of dengue. The surveillance system in Guadeloupe (French West Indies is currently operational for the detection of early outbreaks of dengue. The goal of the study was to improve this surveillance system by assessing a modelling tool to predict the occurrence of dengue epidemics few months ahead and thus to help an efficient dengue control. Methods The Box-Jenkins approach allowed us to fit a Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA model of dengue incidence from 2000 to 2006 using clinical suspected cases. Then, this model was used for calculating dengue incidence for the year 2007 compared with observed data, using three different approaches: 1 year-ahead, 3 months-ahead and 1 month-ahead. Finally, we assessed the impact of meteorological variables (rainfall, temperature and relative humidity on the prediction of dengue incidence and outbreaks, incorporating them in the model fitting the best. Results The 3 months-ahead approach was the most appropriate for an effective and operational public health response, and the most accurate (Root Mean Square Error, RMSE = 0.85. Relative humidity at lag-7 weeks, minimum temperature at lag-5 weeks and average temperature at lag-11 weeks were variables the most positively correlated to dengue incidence in Guadeloupe, meanwhile rainfall was not. The predictive power of SARIMA models was enhanced by the inclusion of climatic variables as external regressors to forecast the year 2007. Temperature significantly affected the model for better dengue incidence forecasting (p-value = 0.03 for minimum temperature lag-5, p-value = 0.02 for average temperature lag-11 but not humidity. Minimum temperature at lag-5 weeks was the best climatic variable for predicting dengue outbreaks (RMSE = 0.72. Conclusion Temperature improves dengue outbreaks forecasts

  10. Estimating the global incidence of traumatic spinal cord injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fitzharris, M; Cripps, R A; Lee, B B

    2014-02-01

    Population modelling--forecasting. To estimate the global incidence of traumatic spinal cord injury (TSCI). An initiative of the International Spinal Cord Society (ISCoS) Prevention Committee. Regression techniques were used to derive regional and global estimates of TSCI incidence. Using the findings of 31 published studies, a regression model was fitted using a known number of TSCI cases as the dependent variable and the population at risk as the single independent variable. In the process of deriving TSCI incidence, an alternative TSCI model was specified in an attempt to arrive at an optimal way of estimating the global incidence of TSCI. The global incidence of TSCI was estimated to be 23 cases per 1,000,000 persons in 2007 (179,312 cases per annum). World Health Organization's regional results are provided. Understanding the incidence of TSCI is important for health service planning and for the determination of injury prevention priorities. In the absence of high-quality epidemiological studies of TSCI in each country, the estimation of TSCI obtained through population modelling can be used to overcome known deficits in global spinal cord injury (SCI) data. The incidence of TSCI is context specific, and an alternative regression model demonstrated how TSCI incidence estimates could be improved with additional data. The results highlight the need for data standardisation and comprehensive reporting of national level TSCI data. A step-wise approach from the collation of conventional epidemiological data through to population modelling is suggested.

  11. Stagewise pseudo-value regression for time-varying effects on the cumulative incidence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zöller, Daniela; Schmidtmann, Irene; Weinmann, Arndt

    2016-01-01

    In a competing risks setting, the cumulative incidence of an event of interest describes the absolute risk for this event as a function of time. For regression analysis, one can either choose to model all competing events by separate cause-specific hazard models or directly model the association...... for time-varying effects. This is implemented by coupling variable selection between the grid times, but determining estimates separately. The effect estimates are regularized to also allow for model fitting with a low to moderate number of observations. This technique is illustrated in an application...

  12. Discriminating electromagnetic radiation based on angle of incidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamam, Rafif E.; Bermel, Peter; Celanovic, Ivan; Soljacic, Marin; Yeng, Adrian Y. X.; Ghebrebrhan, Michael; Joannopoulos, John D.

    2015-06-16

    The present invention provides systems, articles, and methods for discriminating electromagnetic radiation based upon the angle of incidence of the electromagnetic radiation. In some cases, the materials and systems described herein can be capable of inhibiting reflection of electromagnetic radiation (e.g., the materials and systems can be capable of transmitting and/or absorbing electromagnetic radiation) within a given range of angles of incidence at a first incident surface, while substantially reflecting electromagnetic radiation outside the range of angles of incidence at a second incident surface (which can be the same as or different from the first incident surface). A photonic material comprising a plurality of periodically occurring separate domains can be used, in some cases, to selectively transmit and/or selectively absorb one portion of incoming electromagnetic radiation while reflecting another portion of incoming electromagnetic radiation, based upon the angle of incidence. In some embodiments, one domain of the photonic material can include an isotropic dielectric function, while another domain of the photonic material can include an anisotropic dielectric function. In some instances, one domain of the photonic material can include an isotropic magnetic permeability, while another domain of the photonic material can include an anisotropic magnetic permeability. In some embodiments, non-photonic materials (e.g., materials with relatively large scale features) can be used to selectively absorb incoming electromagnetic radiation based on angle of incidence.

  13. Depression and incident dementia. An 8-year population-based prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luppa, Melanie; Luck, Tobias; Ritschel, Franziska; Angermeyer, Matthias C; Villringer, Arno; Riedel-Heller, Steffi G

    2013-01-01

    The aim of the study was to investigate the impact of depression (categorical diagnosis; major depression, MD) and depressive symptoms (dimensional diagnosis and symptom patterns) on incident dementia in the German general population. Within the Leipzig Longitudinal Study of the Aged (LEILA 75+), a representative sample of 1,265 individuals aged 75 years and older were interviewed every 1.5 years over 8 years (mean observation time 4.3 years; mean number of visits 4.2). Cox proportional hazards and binary logistic regressions were used to estimate the effect of baseline depression and depressive symptoms on incident dementia. The incidence of dementia was 48 per 1,000 person-years (95% confidence interval (CI) 45-51). Depressive symptoms (Hazard ratio HR 1.03, 95% CI 1.01-1.05), and in particular mood-related symptoms (HR 1.08, 95% CI 1.03-1.14), showed a significant impact on the incidence of dementia only in univariate analysis, but not after adjustment for cognitive and functional impairment. MD showed only a significant impact on incidence of dementia in Cox proportional hazards regression, but not in binary logistic regression models. The present study using different diagnostic measures of depression on future dementia found no clear significant associations of depression and incident dementia. Further in-depth investigation would help to understand the nature of depression in the context of incident dementia.

  14. A computational model incorporating neural stem cell dynamics reproduces glioma incidence across the lifespan in the human population.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roman Bauer

    Full Text Available Glioma is the most common form of primary brain tumor. Demographically, the risk of occurrence increases until old age. Here we present a novel computational model to reproduce the probability of glioma incidence across the lifespan. Previous mathematical models explaining glioma incidence are framed in a rather abstract way, and do not directly relate to empirical findings. To decrease this gap between theory and experimental observations, we incorporate recent data on cellular and molecular factors underlying gliomagenesis. Since evidence implicates the adult neural stem cell as the likely cell-of-origin of glioma, we have incorporated empirically-determined estimates of neural stem cell number, cell division rate, mutation rate and oncogenic potential into our model. We demonstrate that our model yields results which match actual demographic data in the human population. In particular, this model accounts for the observed peak incidence of glioma at approximately 80 years of age, without the need to assert differential susceptibility throughout the population. Overall, our model supports the hypothesis that glioma is caused by randomly-occurring oncogenic mutations within the neural stem cell population. Based on this model, we assess the influence of the (experimentally indicated decrease in the number of neural stem cells and increase of cell division rate during aging. Our model provides multiple testable predictions, and suggests that different temporal sequences of oncogenic mutations can lead to tumorigenesis. Finally, we conclude that four or five oncogenic mutations are sufficient for the formation of glioma.

  15. Mathematical model as means of optimization of the automation system of the process of incidents of information security management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yulia G. Krasnozhon

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Modern information technologies have an increasing importance for development dynamics and management structure of an enterprise. The management efficiency of implementation of modern information technologies directly related to the quality of information security incident management. However, issues of assessment of the impact of information security incidents management on quality and efficiency of the enterprise management system are not sufficiently highlighted neither in Russian nor in foreign literature. The main direction to approach these problems is the optimization of the process automation system of the information security incident management. Today a special attention is paid to IT-technologies while dealing with information security incidents at mission-critical facilities in Russian Federation such as the Federal Tax Service of Russia (FTS. It is proposed to use the mathematical apparatus of queueing theory in order to build a mathematical model of the system optimization. The developed model allows to estimate quality of the management taking into account the rules and restrictions imposed on the system by the effects of information security incidents. Here an example is given in order to demonstrate the system in work. The obtained statistical data are shown. An implementation of the system discussed here will improve the quality of the Russian FTS services and make responses to information security incidents faster.

  16. The incidence and functional consequences of RT-associated cardiac perfusion defects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marks, Lawrence B.; Yu Xiaoli; Prosnitz, Robert G.; Zhou Sumin; Hardenbergh, Patricia H.; Blazing, Michael; Hollis, Donna; Lind, Pehr; Tisch, Andrea; Wong, Terence Z.; Borges-Neto, Salvador

    2005-01-01

    Purpose: Radiation therapy (RT) for left-sided breast cancer has been associated with cardiac dysfunction. We herein assess the temporal nature and volume dependence of RT-induced left ventricular perfusion defects and whether these perfusion defects are related to changes in cardiac wall motion or alterations in ejection fraction. Methods: From 1998 to 2001, 114 patients were enrolled onto an IRB-approved prospective clinical study to assess changes in regional and global cardiac function after RT for left-sided breast cancer. Patients were imaged 30 to 60 minutes after injection of technetium 99m sestamibi or tetrofosmin. Post-RT perfusion scans were compared with the pre-RT studies to assess for RT-induced perfusion defects as well as functional changes in wall motion and ejection fraction. Two-tailed Fisher's exact test and the Cochran-Armitage test for linear trends were used for statistical analysis. Results: The incidence of new perfusion defects 6, 12, 18, and 24 months after RT was 27%, 29%, 38%, and 42%, respectively. New defects occurred in approximately 10% to 20% and 50% to 60% of patients with less than 5%, and greater than 5%, of their left ventricle included within the RT fields, respectively (p = 0.33 to 0.00008). The rates of wall motion abnormalities in patients with and without perfusion defects were 12% to 40% versus 0% to 9%, respectively; p values were 0.007 to 0.16, depending on the post-RT interval. Conclusions: Radiation therapy causes volume-dependent perfusion defects in approximately 40% of patients within 2 years of RT. These perfusion defects are associated with corresponding wall-motion abnormalities. Additional study is necessary to better define the long-term functional consequences of RT-induced perfusion defects

  17. Hydroclimatology of Dual Peak Cholera Incidence in Bengal Region: Inferences from a Spatial Explicit Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Righetto, L.; Casagrandi, R.; Gatto, M.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.; Rinaldo, A.

    2010-12-01

    The seasonality of cholera and its relation with environmental drivers are receiving increasing interest and research efforts, yet they remain unsatisfactorily understood. A striking example is the observed annual cycle of cholera incidence in the Bengal region which exhibits two peaks despite the main environmental drivers that have been linked to the disease (air and sea surface temperature, zooplankton density, river discharge) follow a synchronous single-peak annual pattern. A first outbreak, mainly affecting the coastal regions, occurs in spring and it is followed, after a period of low incidence during summer, by a second, usually larger, peak in autumn also involving regions situated farther inland. A hydroclimatological explanation for this unique seasonal cycle has been recently proposed: the low river spring flows favor the intrusion of brackish water (the natural environment of the causative agent of the disease) which, in turn, triggers the first outbreak. The summer rising river discharges have a temporary dilution effect and prompt the repulsion of contaminated water which lowers the disease incidence. However, the monsoon flooding, together with the induced crowding of the population and the failure of the sanitation systems, can possibly facilitate the spatial transmission of the disease and promote the autumn outbreak. We test this hypothesis using a mechanistic, spatially explicit model of cholera epidemic. The framework directly accounts for the role of the river network in transporting and redistributing cholera bacteria among human communities as well as for the annual fluctuation of the river flow. The model is forced with the actual environmental drivers of the region, namely river flow and temperature. Our results show that these two drivers, both having a single peak in the summer, can generate a double peak cholera incidence pattern. Besides temporal patterns, the model is also able to qualitatively reproduce spatial patterns characterized

  18. Traffic incidents in motorways : An empirical proposal for incident detection using data from mobile phone operators

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Steenbruggen, John; Tranos, Emmanouil; Rietveld, P.

    2016-01-01

    This paper proves that mobile phone usage data is an easy to use, cheap and most importantly, reliable predictor of motorway incidents. Using econometric modelling, this paper provides a proof of concept of how mobile phone usage data can be utilised to detect motorway incidents. Greater Amsterdam

  19. Decreasing incidence rates of bacteremia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Stig Lønberg; Pedersen, C; Jensen, T G

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Numerous studies have shown that the incidence rate of bacteremia has been increasing over time. However, few studies have distinguished between community-acquired, healthcare-associated and nosocomial bacteremia. METHODS: We conducted a population-based study among adults with first......-time bacteremia in Funen County, Denmark, during 2000-2008 (N = 7786). We reported mean and annual incidence rates (per 100,000 person-years), overall and by place of acquisition. Trends were estimated using a Poisson regression model. RESULTS: The overall incidence rate was 215.7, including 99.0 for community......-acquired, 50.0 for healthcare-associated and 66.7 for nosocomial bacteremia. During 2000-2008, the overall incidence rate decreased by 23.3% from 254.1 to 198.8 (3.3% annually, p incidence rate of community-acquired bacteremia decreased by 25.6% from 119.0 to 93.8 (3.7% annually, p

  20. Nodal structure and phase shifts of zero-incident-energy wave functions: Multiparticle single-channel scattering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iwinski, Z.R.; Rosenberg, L.; Spruch, L.

    1986-01-01

    For potential scattering, with delta/sub L/(k) the phase shift modulo π for an incident wave number k, Levinson's theorem gives delta/sub L/(0)-delta/sub L/(infinity) in terms of N/sub L/, the number of bound states of angular momentum L, for delta/sub L/(k) assumed to be a continuous function of k. N/sub L/ also determines the number of nodes of the zero-energy wave function u/sub L/(r). A knowledge of the nodal structure and of the absolute value of delta/sub L/(0) is very useful in theoretical studies of low-energy potential scattering. Two preliminary attempts, one formal and one ''physical,'' are made to extend the above results to single-channel scattering by a compound system initially in its ground state. The nodal structure will be of greater interest to us here than an extension of Levinson's theorem

  1. Contribution of H. pylori and smoking trends to US incidence of intestinal-type noncardia gastric adenocarcinoma: a microsimulation model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeh, Jennifer M; Hur, Chin; Schrag, Deb; Kuntz, Karen M; Ezzati, Majid; Stout, Natasha; Ward, Zachary; Goldie, Sue J

    2013-01-01

    Although gastric cancer has declined dramatically in the US, the disease remains the second leading cause of cancer mortality worldwide. A better understanding of reasons for the decline can provide important insights into effective preventive strategies. We sought to estimate the contribution of risk factor trends on past and future intestinal-type noncardia gastric adenocarcinoma (NCGA) incidence. We developed a population-based microsimulation model of intestinal-type NCGA and calibrated it to US epidemiologic data on precancerous lesions and cancer. The model explicitly incorporated the impact of Helicobacter pylori and smoking on disease natural history, for which birth cohort-specific trends were derived from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) and National Health Interview Survey (NHIS). Between 1978 and 2008, the model estimated that intestinal-type NCGA incidence declined 60% from 11.0 to 4.4 per 100,000 men, <3% discrepancy from national statistics. H. pylori and smoking trends combined accounted for 47% (range = 30%-58%) of the observed decline. With no tobacco control, incidence would have declined only 56%, suggesting that lower smoking initiation and higher cessation rates observed after the 1960s accelerated the relative decline in cancer incidence by 7% (range = 0%-21%). With continued risk factor trends, incidence is projected to decline an additional 47% between 2008 and 2040, the majority of which will be attributable to H. pylori and smoking (81%; range = 61%-100%). Limitations include assuming all other risk factors influenced gastric carcinogenesis as one factor and restricting the analysis to men. Trends in modifiable risk factors explain a significant proportion of the decline of intestinal-type NCGA incidence in the US, and are projected to continue. Although past tobacco control efforts have hastened the decline, full benefits will take decades to be realized, and further discouragement of smoking and reduction of

  2. The Threshold of a Stochastic SIRS Model with Vertical Transmission and Saturated Incidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chunjuan Zhu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The threshold of a stochastic SIRS model with vertical transmission and saturated incidence is investigated. If the noise is small, it is shown that the threshold of the stochastic system determines the extinction and persistence of the epidemic. In addition, we find that if the noise is large, the epidemic still prevails. Finally, numerical simulations are given to illustrate the results.

  3. Traveling waves in a delayed SIR model with nonlocal dispersal and nonlinear incidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Shou-Peng; Yang, Yun-Rui; Zhou, Yong-Hui

    2018-01-01

    This paper is concerned with traveling waves of a delayed SIR model with nonlocal dispersal and a general nonlinear incidence. The existence and nonexistence of traveling waves of the system are established respectively by Schauder's fixed point theorem and two-sided Laplace transform. It is also shown that the spread speed c is influenced by the dispersal rate of the infected individuals and the delay τ.

  4. Measurements of diamond-turned copper mirrors at glancing incidence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kimura, W.D.; Saito, T.T.

    1987-01-01

    The results of glancing incidence absorptance measurements performed on diamond-turned copper mirrors are presented. A photoacoustic calorimetry technique is used in which the output from a low power, chopped cw Nd:YAG laser (1.06 μm) is incident upon the mirror at angles of incidence from 0 to 87 0 , for both s and p-polarizations. Measurements are obtained as a function of the diamond turning groove orientation with respect to the plane of incidence. Minimum absorptance, at high angles of incidence, is achieved with s-polarized light and with the grooves aligned parallel to the plane of incidence. The affects on the absorptance of a large scratch at glancing incidence are also described

  5. Measurements of diamond turned copper mirrors at glancing incidence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kimura, W.D.; Saito, T.T.

    1987-01-01

    The results of glancing incidence absorptance measurements performed on diamond turned copper mirrors are presented. A photoacoustic calorimetry technique is used in which the output from a low power, chopped cw Nd:YAG laser (1.06 μm) is incident upon the mirror at angles of incidence from 0 to 87 0 , for both s and p-polarizations. Measurements are obtained as a function of the diamond turning groove orientation with respect to the plane of incidence. Minimum absorptance at high angles of incidence is achieved with s-polarized light and with the grooves aligned parallel to the plane of incidence. The effects on the absorptance of a large scratch at glancing incidence are also described

  6. Zero-inflated beta regression model for leaf citrus canker incidence in orange genotypes grafted onto different rootstocks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oilson Alberto Gonzatto Junior

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Data with excess zeros are frequently found in practice, and the recommended analysis is to use models that adequately address the counting of zero observations. In this study, the Zero Inflated Beta Regression Model (BeZI was used on experimental data to describe the mean incidence of leaf citrus canker in orange groves under the influence of genotype and rootstocks of origin. Based on the model, it was possible to quantify the odds that a null observation to mean incidence comes from a particular plant according to genotype and rootstock, and estimate its expected value according to this combination. Laranja Caipira rootstock proved to be the most resistant to leaf citrus canker as well as Limão Cravo proved to be the most fragile. The Ipiguá IAC, Arapongas, EEL and Olímpia genotypes have statistically equivalent chances.

  7. Modeling and simulation of the solar concentrator in photovoltaic systems through the application of a new BRDF function model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plachta, Kamil

    2016-04-01

    The paper presents a new algorithm that uses a combination of two models of BRDF functions: Torrance-Sparrow model and HTSG model. The knowledge of technical parameters of a surface is especially useful in the construction of the solar concentrator. The concentrator directs the reflected solar radiation on the surface of photovoltaic panels, increasing the amount of incident radiance. The software applying algorithm allows to calculate surface parameters of the solar concentrator. Performed simulation showing the share of diffuse component and directional component in reflected stream for surfaces made from particular materials. The impact of share of each component in reflected stream on the efficiency of the solar concentrator and photovoltaic surface has also been described. Subsequently, simulation change the value of voltage, current and power output of monocrystalline photovoltaic panels installed in a solar concentrator system has been made for selected surface of materials solar concentrator.

  8. Development and validation of a prediction model for loss of physical function in elderly hemodialysis patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fukuma, Shingo; Shimizu, Sayaka; Shintani, Ayumi; Kamitani, Tsukasa; Akizawa, Tadao; Fukuhara, Shunichi

    2017-09-05

    Among aging hemodialysis patients, loss of physical function has become a major issue. We developed and validated a model of predicting loss of physical function among elderly hemodialysis patients. We conducted a cohort study involving maintenance hemodialysis patients  ≥65 years of age from the Dialysis Outcomes and Practice Pattern Study in Japan. The derivation cohort included 593 early phase (1996-2004) patients and the temporal validation cohort included 447 late-phase (2005-12) patients. The main outcome was the incidence of loss of physical function, defined as the 12-item Short Form Health Survey physical function score decreasing to 0 within a year. Using backward stepwise logistic regression by Akaike's Information Criteria, six predictors (age, gender, dementia, mental health, moderate activity and ascending stairs) were selected for the final model. Points were assigned based on the regression coefficients and the total score was calculated by summing the points for each predictor. In total, 65 (11.0%) and 53 (11.9%) hemodialysis patients lost their physical function within 1 year in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. This model has good predictive performance quantified by both discrimination and calibration. The proportion of the loss of physical function increased sequentially through low-, middle-, and high-score categories based on the model (2.5%, 11.7% and 22.3% in the validation cohort, respectively). The loss of physical function was strongly associated with 1-year mortality [adjusted odds ratio 2.48 (95% confidence interval 1.26-4.91)]. We developed and validated a risk prediction model with good predictive performance for loss of physical function in elderly hemodialysis patients. Our simple prediction model may help physicians and patients make more informed decisions for healthy longevity. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of ERA-EDTA.

  9. Cognition and Incident Coronary Heart Disease in Late Midlife: The Whitehall II Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh-Manoux, Archana; Sabia, Severine; Kivimaki, Mika; Shipley, Martin J.; Ferrie, Jane E.; Marmot, Michael G.

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate whether cognitive function in midlife predicts incident coronary heart disease (CHD), followed up over 6 years. Data on 5292 (28% women, mean age 55) individuals free from CHD at baseline were drawn from the British Whitehall II study. We used Cox regression to model the association between cognition…

  10. Incident Management in Academic Information System using ITIL Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palilingan, V. R.; Batmetan, J. R.

    2018-02-01

    Incident management is very important in order to ensure the continuity of a system. Information systems require incident management to ensure information systems can provide maximum service according to the service provided. Many of the problems that arise in academic information systems come from incidents that are not properly handled. The objective of this study aims to find the appropriate way of incident management. The incident can be managed so it will not be a big problem. This research uses the ITIL framework to solve incident problems. The technique used in this study is a technique adopted and developed from the service operations section of the ITIL framework. The results of this research found that 84.5% of incidents appearing in academic information systems can be handled quickly and appropriately. 15.5% incidents can be escalated so as to not cause any new problems. The model of incident management applied to make academic information system can run quickly in providing academic service in a good and efficient. The incident management model implemented in this research is able to manage resources appropriately so as to quickly and easily manage incidents.

  11. Early antiretroviral therapy and potent second-line drugs could decrease HIV incidence of drug resistance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Mingwang; Xiao, Yanni; Rong, Libin; Meyers, Lauren Ancel; Bellan, Steven E

    2017-06-28

    Early initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) reduces the risk of drug-sensitive HIV transmission but may increase the transmission of drug-resistant HIV. We used a mathematical model to estimate the long-term population-level benefits of ART and determine the scenarios under which earlier ART (treatment at 1 year post-infection, on average) could decrease simultaneously both total and drug-resistant HIV incidence (new infections). We constructed an infection-age-structured mathematical model that tracked the transmission rates over the course of infection and modelled the patients' life expectancy as a function of ART initiation timing. We fitted this model to the annual AIDS incidence and death data directly, and to resistance data and demographic data indirectly among men who have sex with men (MSM) in San Francisco. Using counterfactual scenarios, we assessed the impact on total and drug-resistant HIV incidence of ART initiation timing, frequency of acquired drug resistance, and second-line drug effectiveness (defined as the combination of resistance monitoring, biomedical drug efficacy and adherence). Earlier ART initiation could decrease the number of both total and drug-resistant HIV incidence when second-line drug effectiveness is sufficiently high (greater than 80%), but increase the proportion of new infections that are drug resistant. Thus, resistance may paradoxically appear to be increasing while actually decreasing. © 2017 The Author(s).

  12. Modelling psychological responses to the Great East Japan earthquake and nuclear incident.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robin Goodwin

    Full Text Available The Great East Japan (Tōhoku/Kanto earthquake of March 2011 was followed by a major tsunami and nuclear incident. Several previous studies have suggested a number of psychological responses to such disasters. However, few previous studies have modelled individual differences in the risk perceptions of major events, or the implications of these perceptions for relevant behaviours. We conducted a survey specifically examining responses to the Great Japan earthquake and nuclear incident, with data collected 11-13 weeks following these events. 844 young respondents completed a questionnaire in three regions of Japan; Miyagi (close to the earthquake and leaking nuclear plants, Tokyo/Chiba (approximately 220 km from the nuclear plants, and Western Japan (Yamaguchi and Nagasaki, some 1000 km from the plants. Results indicated significant regional differences in risk perception, with greater concern over earthquake risks in Tokyo than in Miyagi or Western Japan. Structural equation analyses showed that shared normative concerns about earthquake and nuclear risks, conservation values, lack of trust in governmental advice about the nuclear hazard, and poor personal control over the nuclear incident were positively correlated with perceived earthquake and nuclear risks. These risk perceptions further predicted specific outcomes (e.g. modifying homes, avoiding going outside, contemplating leaving Japan. The strength and significance of these pathways varied by region. Mental health and practical implications of these findings are discussed in the light of the continuing uncertainties in Japan following the March 2011 events.

  13. Modelling psychological responses to the Great East Japan earthquake and nuclear incident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodwin, Robin; Takahashi, Masahito; Sun, Shaojing; Gaines, Stanley O

    2012-01-01

    The Great East Japan (Tōhoku/Kanto) earthquake of March 2011 was followed by a major tsunami and nuclear incident. Several previous studies have suggested a number of psychological responses to such disasters. However, few previous studies have modelled individual differences in the risk perceptions of major events, or the implications of these perceptions for relevant behaviours. We conducted a survey specifically examining responses to the Great Japan earthquake and nuclear incident, with data collected 11-13 weeks following these events. 844 young respondents completed a questionnaire in three regions of Japan; Miyagi (close to the earthquake and leaking nuclear plants), Tokyo/Chiba (approximately 220 km from the nuclear plants), and Western Japan (Yamaguchi and Nagasaki, some 1000 km from the plants). Results indicated significant regional differences in risk perception, with greater concern over earthquake risks in Tokyo than in Miyagi or Western Japan. Structural equation analyses showed that shared normative concerns about earthquake and nuclear risks, conservation values, lack of trust in governmental advice about the nuclear hazard, and poor personal control over the nuclear incident were positively correlated with perceived earthquake and nuclear risks. These risk perceptions further predicted specific outcomes (e.g. modifying homes, avoiding going outside, contemplating leaving Japan). The strength and significance of these pathways varied by region. Mental health and practical implications of these findings are discussed in the light of the continuing uncertainties in Japan following the March 2011 events.

  14. Plant functional modelling as a basis for assessing the impact of management on plant safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rasmussen, Birgitte; Petersen, Kurt E.

    1999-01-01

    A major objective of the present work is to provide means for representing a chemical process plant as a socio-technical system, so as to allow hazard identification at a high level in order to identify major targets for safety development. The main phases of the methodology are: (1) preparation of a plant functional model where a set of plant functions describes coherently hardware, software, operations, work organization and other safety related aspects. The basic principle is that any aspect of the plant can be represented by an object based upon an Intent and associated with each Intent are Methods, by which the Intent is realized, and Constraints, which limit the Intent. (2) Plant level hazard identification based on keywords/checklists and the functional model. (3) Development of incident scenarios and selection of hazardous situation with different safety characteristics. (4) Evaluation of the impact of management on plant safety through interviews. (5) Identification of safety critical ways of action in the management system, i.e. identification of possible error- and violation-producing conditions

  15. Bifurcation analysis of a discrete SIS model with bilinear incidence depending on new infection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Hui; Zhou, Yicang; Ma, Zhien

    2013-01-01

    A discrete SIS epidemic model with the bilinear incidence depending on the new infection is formulated and studied. The condition for the global stability of the disease free equilibrium is obtained. The existence of the endemic equilibrium and its stability are investigated. More attention is paid to the existence of the saddle-node bifurcation, the flip bifurcation, and the Hopf bifurcation. Sufficient conditions for those bifurcations have been obtained. Numerical simulations are conducted to demonstrate our theoretical results and the complexity of the model.

  16. Comparative study of four time series methods in forecasting typhoid fever incidence in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xingyu; Liu, Yuanyuan; Yang, Min; Zhang, Tao; Young, Alistair A; Li, Xiaosong

    2013-01-01

    Accurate incidence forecasting of infectious disease is critical for early prevention and for better government strategic planning. In this paper, we present a comprehensive study of different forecasting methods based on the monthly incidence of typhoid fever. The seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model and three different models inspired by neural networks, namely, back propagation neural networks (BPNN), radial basis function neural networks (RBFNN), and Elman recurrent neural networks (ERNN) were compared. The differences as well as the advantages and disadvantages, among the SARIMA model and the neural networks were summarized and discussed. The data obtained for 2005 to 2009 and for 2010 from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention were used as modeling and forecasting samples, respectively. The performances were evaluated based on three metrics: mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and mean square error (MSE). The results showed that RBFNN obtained the smallest MAE, MAPE and MSE in both the modeling and forecasting processes. The performances of the four models ranked in descending order were: RBFNN, ERNN, BPNN and the SARIMA model.

  17. Comparative study of four time series methods in forecasting typhoid fever incidence in China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xingyu Zhang

    Full Text Available Accurate incidence forecasting of infectious disease is critical for early prevention and for better government strategic planning. In this paper, we present a comprehensive study of different forecasting methods based on the monthly incidence of typhoid fever. The seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA model and three different models inspired by neural networks, namely, back propagation neural networks (BPNN, radial basis function neural networks (RBFNN, and Elman recurrent neural networks (ERNN were compared. The differences as well as the advantages and disadvantages, among the SARIMA model and the neural networks were summarized and discussed. The data obtained for 2005 to 2009 and for 2010 from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention were used as modeling and forecasting samples, respectively. The performances were evaluated based on three metrics: mean absolute error (MAE, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE, and mean square error (MSE. The results showed that RBFNN obtained the smallest MAE, MAPE and MSE in both the modeling and forecasting processes. The performances of the four models ranked in descending order were: RBFNN, ERNN, BPNN and the SARIMA model.

  18. Childhood Leukaemia Incidence in Hungary, 1973-2002. Interpolation Model for Analysing the Possible Effects of the Chernobyl Accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Toeroek, Szabolcs; Borgulya, Gabor; Lobmayer, Peter; Jakab, Zsuzsanna; Schuler, Dezsoe; Fekete, Gyoergy

    2005-01-01

    The incidence of childhood leukaemia in Hungary has yet to be reported, although data are available since the early 70s. The Hungarian data therefore cover the time before and after the Chernobyl nuclear accident (1986). The aim of this study was to assess the effects of the Chernobyl accident on childhood leukaemia incidence in Hungary. A population-based study was carried out using data of the National Paediatric Cancer Registry of Hungary from 1973 to 2002. The total number of cases was 2204. To test the effect of the Chernobyl accident the authors applied a new approach called 'Hypothesized Impact Period Interpolation'-model, which takes into account the increasing trend of childhood leukaemia incidence and the hypothesized exposure and latency times. The incidence of leukaemia in the age group 0-14 varied between 33.2 and 39.4 per million person-years along the observed 30 year period, and the incidence of childhood leukaemia showed a moderate increase of 0.71% annually (p=0.0105). In the period of the hypothesized impact of the Chernobyl accident the incidence rate was elevated by 2.5% (95% CI: -8.1%; +14.3%), but this change was not statistically significant (p=0.663). The age standardised incidence, the age distribution, the gender ratio, and the magnitude of increasing trend of childhood leukaemia incidence in Hungary were similar to other European countries. Applying the presented interpolation method the authors did not find a statistically significant increase in the leukaemia incidence in the period of the hypothesized impact of the Chernobyl accident

  19. Structure functions from chiral soliton models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weigel, H.; Reinhardt, H.; Gamberg, L.

    1997-01-01

    We study nucleon structure functions within the bosonized Nambu-Jona-Lasinio (NJL) model where the nucleon emerges as a chiral soliton. We discuss the model predictions on the Gottfried sum rule for electron-nucleon scattering. A comparison with a low-scale parametrization shows that the model reproduces the gross features of the empirical structure functions. We also compute the leading twist contributions of the polarized structure functions g 1 and g 2 in this model. We compare the model predictions on these structure functions with data from the E143 experiment by GLAP evolving them from the scale characteristic for the NJL-model to the scale of the data

  20. Leukocyte and platelet depletion improves blood flow and function in a renal transplant model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yates, Phillip J; Hosgood, Sarah A; Nicholson, Michael L

    2012-01-01

    Donation after cardiac death (DCD) donors are an important source of organs for transplantation. Due to warm and cold ischemic injury, DCD kidneys undergo a significant reperfusion insult when transplanted. This is manifested clinically as a high incidence of delayed graft function (DGF) and primary non-function (PNF). The importance of leukocytes in the generation of reperfusion injury is pivotal. Using an ex vivo porcine model of kidney transplantation, the effects of reperfusion with leukocyte and platelet depleted blood (LDB) and whole blood (WB) on renal blood flow and function were compared. Hemodynamic measurements were recorded, and biochemical, hematological, and histologic samples taken at set time-points. Reperfusion with LDB improved renal blood flow significantly compared with WB reperfusion. In addition, there was a significant improvement in creatinine clearance and renal oxygen consumption, but not fractional excretion of sodium, acid-base homeostasis, urinary nitric oxide (NO), or 8-isoprostane levels. This study represents a good model for the initial reperfusion period in renal transplantation. Improvement in only some functional markers and neither urinary NO nor 8-isoprostane levels indicates that improved blood flow alone is not sufficient to reverse the severe ischemic insult endured by DCD kidneys. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Chaos induced by breakup of waves in a spatial epidemic model with nonlinear incidence rate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sun, Gui-Quan; Jin, Zhen; Liu, Quan-Xing; Li, Li

    2008-01-01

    Spatial epidemiology is the study of spatial variation in disease risk or incidence, including the spatial patterns of the population. The spread of diseases in human populations can exhibit large scale patterns, underlining the need for spatially explicit approaches. In this paper, the spatiotemporal complexity of a spatial epidemic model with nonlinear incidence rate, which includes the behavioral changes and crowding effect of the infective individuals, is investigated. Based on both theoretical analysis and computer simulations, we find out when, under the parameters which can guarantee a stable limit cycle in the non-spatial model, spiral and target waves can emerge. Moreover, two different kinds of breakup of waves are shown. Specifically, the breakup of spiral waves is from the core and the breakup of target waves is from the far-field, and both kinds of waves become irregular patterns at last. Our results reveal that the spatiotemporal chaos is induced by the breakup of waves. The results obtained confirm that diffusion can form spiral waves, target waves or spatial chaos of high population density, which enrich the findings of spatiotemporal dynamics in the epidemic model

  2. Main pumps lost incident in the nuclear power plant Atucha I. Modelling with RELAP5/MOD3.2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ventura, M.A.; Rosso, R.D.

    1998-01-01

    Time evolution of natural circulation in the nuclear power plant Atucha I (CNA-I), in a main pumps lost incident because of the lost of external power feed, is analyzed. It leads to a strong stop transient, without an important blow down, from a forced nominal flow to a natural circulation one. The results are obtained from RELAP5/MOD3.2 code's modeling. The study is based on the refrigeration conditions analysis, during the first minutes of the reactor out of service. Previously to the transient, work had been done to obtain the plant steady state, with design parameters in operation conditions at 100 % of power. The object is that the actual plant state would be represented. In this way, each plant part (steam generators, reactor, pressurizer, pumps) had been modeled in separated form with the appropriate boundary conditions, to be used in the whole circuit simulation. The developed model, had been validated making use of the comparison between the values obtained to the principal thermodynamic parameters with the plant recorded values, in the same incident. The results are satisfactory in a way. On the other hand, it has suggested some modeling changes. The RELAP5/MOD3.2 capability to model the thermodynamic phenomena in a PHWR plant has been verified when, according to the mentioned incident, the flow pass from a nominal forced flow, to one which is governed by natural circulation, still with the CNA-I untypical design conditions. (author) [es

  3. Global asymptotic stability of a delayed SEIRS epidemic model with saturation incidence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Tailei; Teng Zhidong

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, the asymptotic behavior of solutions of an autonomous SEIRS epidemic model with the saturation incidence is studied. Using the method of Liapunov-LaSalle invariance principle, we obtain the disease-free equilibrium is globally stable if the basic reproduction number is not greater than one. Moreover, we show that the disease is permanent if the basic reproduction number is greater than one. Furthermore, the sufficient conditions of locally and globally asymptotically stable convergence to an endemic equilibrium are obtained base on the permanence

  4. Forecasting typhoid fever incidence in the Cordillera administrative region in the Philippines using seasonal ARIMA models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cawiding, Olive R.; Natividad, Gina May R.; Bato, Crisostomo V.; Addawe, Rizavel C.

    2017-11-01

    The prevalence of typhoid fever in developing countries such as the Philippines calls for a need for accurate forecasting of the disease. This will be of great assistance in strategic disease prevention. This paper presents a development of useful models that predict the behavior of typhoid fever incidence based on the monthly incidence in the provinces of the Cordillera Administrative Region from 2010 to 2015 using univariate time series analysis. The data used was obtained from the Cordillera Office of the Department of Health (DOH-CAR). Seasonal autoregressive moving average (SARIMA) models were used to incorporate the seasonality of the data. A comparison of the results of the obtained models revealed that the SARIMA (1,1,7)(0,0,1)12 with a fixed coefficient at the seventh lag produces the smallest root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). The model suggested that for the year 2016, the number of cases would increase from the months of July to September and have a drop in December. This was then validated using the data collected from January 2016 to December 2016.

  5. Mathematical modeling of zika virus disease with nonlinear incidence and optimal control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goswami, Naba Kumar; Srivastav, Akhil Kumar; Ghosh, Mini; Shanmukha, B.

    2018-04-01

    The Zika virus was first discovered in a rhesus monkey in the Zika Forest of Uganda in 1947, and it was isolated from humans in Nigeria in 1952. Zika virus disease is primarily a mosquito-borne disease, which is transmitted to human primarily through the bite of an infected Aedes species mosquito. However, there is documented evidence of sexual transmission of this disease too. In this paper, a nonlinear mathematical model for Zika virus by considering nonlinear incidence is formulated and analyzed. The equilibria and the basic reproduction number (R0) of the model are found. The stability of the different equilibria of the model is discussed in detail. When the basic reproduction number R0 1, we have endemic equilibrium which is locally stable under some restriction on parameters. Further this model is extended to optimal control model and is analyzed by using Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle. It has been observed that optimal control plays a significant role in reducing the number of zika infectives. Finally, numerical simulation is performed to illustrate the analytical findings.

  6. Contribution of H. pylori and smoking trends to US incidence of intestinal-type noncardia gastric adenocarcinoma: a microsimulation model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer M Yeh

    Full Text Available Although gastric cancer has declined dramatically in the US, the disease remains the second leading cause of cancer mortality worldwide. A better understanding of reasons for the decline can provide important insights into effective preventive strategies. We sought to estimate the contribution of risk factor trends on past and future intestinal-type noncardia gastric adenocarcinoma (NCGA incidence.We developed a population-based microsimulation model of intestinal-type NCGA and calibrated it to US epidemiologic data on precancerous lesions and cancer. The model explicitly incorporated the impact of Helicobacter pylori and smoking on disease natural history, for which birth cohort-specific trends were derived from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES and National Health Interview Survey (NHIS. Between 1978 and 2008, the model estimated that intestinal-type NCGA incidence declined 60% from 11.0 to 4.4 per 100,000 men, <3% discrepancy from national statistics. H. pylori and smoking trends combined accounted for 47% (range = 30%-58% of the observed decline. With no tobacco control, incidence would have declined only 56%, suggesting that lower smoking initiation and higher cessation rates observed after the 1960s accelerated the relative decline in cancer incidence by 7% (range = 0%-21%. With continued risk factor trends, incidence is projected to decline an additional 47% between 2008 and 2040, the majority of which will be attributable to H. pylori and smoking (81%; range = 61%-100%. Limitations include assuming all other risk factors influenced gastric carcinogenesis as one factor and restricting the analysis to men.Trends in modifiable risk factors explain a significant proportion of the decline of intestinal-type NCGA incidence in the US, and are projected to continue. Although past tobacco control efforts have hastened the decline, full benefits will take decades to be realized, and further discouragement of smoking and

  7. Spatial Inequalities in the Incidence of Colorectal Cancer and Associated Factors in the Neighborhoods of Tehran, Iran: Bayesian Spatial Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kamyar Mansori

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Objectives The aim of this study was to determine the factors associated with the spatial distribution of the incidence of colorectal cancer (CRC in the neighborhoods of Tehran, Iran using Bayesian spatial models. Methods This ecological study was implemented in Tehran on the neighborhood level. Socioeconomic variables, risk factors, and health costs were extracted from the Equity Assessment Study conducted in Tehran. The data on CRC incidence were extracted from the Iranian population-based cancer registry. The Besag-York-Mollié (BYM model was used to identify factors associated with the spatial distribution of CRC incidence. The software programs OpenBUGS version 3.2.3, ArcGIS 10.3, and GeoDa were used for the analysis. Results The Moran index was statistically significant for all the variables studied (p<0.05. The BYM model showed that having a women head of household (median standardized incidence ratio [SIR], 1.63; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.06 to 2.53, living in a rental house (median SIR, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.71 to 0.96, not consuming milk daily (median SIR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.55 to 0.94 and having greater household health expenditures (median SIR, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.06 to 1.68 were associated with a statistically significant elevation in the SIR of CRC. The median (interquartile range and mean (standard deviation values of the SIR of CRC, with the inclusion of all the variables studied in the model, were 0.57 (1.01 and 1.05 (1.31, respectively. Conclusions Inequality was found in the spatial distribution of CRC incidence in Tehran on the neighborhood level. Paying attention to this inequality and the factors associated with it may be useful for resource allocation and developing preventive strategies in atrisk areas.

  8. Monte Carlo mixture model of lifetime cancer incidence risk from radiation exposure on shuttle and international space station

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peterson, L.E.; Cucinotta, F.A.

    1999-01-01

    Estimating uncertainty in lifetime cancer risk for human exposure to space radiation is a unique challenge. Conventional risk assessment with low-linear-energy-transfer (LET)-based risk from Japanese atomic bomb survivor studies may be inappropriate for relativistic protons and nuclei in space due to track structure effects. This paper develops a Monte Carlo mixture model (MCMM) for transferring additive, National Institutes of Health multiplicative, and multiplicative excess cancer incidence risks based on Japanese atomic bomb survivor data to determine excess incidence risk for various US astronaut exposure profiles. The MCMM serves as an anchor point for future risk projection methods involving biophysical models of DNA damage from space radiation. Lifetime incidence risks of radiation-induced cancer for the MCMM based on low-LET Japanese data for nonleukemia (all cancers except leukemia) were 2.77 (90% confidence limit, 0.75-11.34) for males exposed to 1 Sv at age 45 and 2.20 (90% confidence limit, 0.59-10.12) for males exposed at age 55. For females, mixture model risks for nonleukemia exposed separately to 1 Sv at ages of 45 and 55 were 2.98 (90% confidence limit, 0.90-11.70) and 2.44 (90% confidence limit, 0.70-10.30), respectively. Risks for high-LET 200 MeV protons (LET=0.45 keV/μm), 1 MeV α-particles (LET=100 keV/μm), and 600 MeV iron particles (LET=180 keV/μm) were scored on a per particle basis by determining the particle fluence required for an average of one particle per cell nucleus of area 100 μm 2 . Lifetime risk per proton was 2.68x10 -2 % (90% confidence limit, 0.79x10 -3 %-0.514x10 -2 %). For α-particles, lifetime risk was 14.2% (90% confidence limit, 2.5%-31.2%). Conversely, lifetime risk per iron particle was 23.7% (90% confidence limit, 4.5%-53.0%). Uncertainty in the DDREF for high-LET particles may be less than that for low-LET radiation because typically there is very little dose-rate dependence. Probability density functions for

  9. Analytical fitting model for rough-surface BRDF.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renhorn, Ingmar G E; Boreman, Glenn D

    2008-08-18

    A physics-based model is developed for rough surface BRDF, taking into account angles of incidence and scattering, effective index, surface autocovariance, and correlation length. Shadowing is introduced on surface correlation length and reflectance. Separate terms are included for surface scatter, bulk scatter and retroreflection. Using the FindFit function in Mathematica, the functional form is fitted to BRDF measurements over a wide range of incident angles. The model has fourteen fitting parameters; once these are fixed, the model accurately describes scattering data over two orders of magnitude in BRDF without further adjustment. The resulting analytical model is convenient for numerical computations.

  10. Critical steps in learning from incidents: using learning potential in the process from reporting an incident to accident prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drupsteen, Linda; Groeneweg, Jop; Zwetsloot, Gerard I J M

    2013-01-01

    Many incidents have occurred because organisations have failed to learn from lessons of the past. This means that there is room for improvement in the way organisations analyse incidents, generate measures to remedy identified weaknesses and prevent reoccurrence: the learning from incidents process. To improve that process, it is necessary to gain insight into the steps of this process and to identify factors that hinder learning (bottlenecks). This paper presents a model that enables organisations to analyse the steps in a learning from incidents process and to identify the bottlenecks. The study describes how this model is used in a survey and in 3 exploratory case studies in The Netherlands. The results show that there is limited use of learning potential, especially in the evaluation stage. To improve learning, an approach that considers all steps is necessary.

  11. Implementation of the critical points model in a SFM-FDTD code working in oblique incidence

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamidi, M; Belkhir, A; Lamrous, O [Laboratoire de Physique et Chimie Quantique, Universite Mouloud Mammeri, Tizi-Ouzou (Algeria); Baida, F I, E-mail: omarlamrous@mail.ummto.dz [Departement d' Optique P.M. Duffieux, Institut FEMTO-ST UMR 6174 CNRS Universite de Franche-Comte, 25030 Besancon Cedex (France)

    2011-06-22

    We describe the implementation of the critical points model in a finite-difference-time-domain code working in oblique incidence and dealing with dispersive media through the split field method. Some tests are presented to validate our code in addition to an application devoted to plasmon resonance of a gold nanoparticles grating.

  12. The impact of social protection and poverty elimination on global tuberculosis incidence: a statistical modelling analysis of Sustainable Development Goal 1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel J Carter, MSc

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Summary: Background: The End TB Strategy and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs are intimately linked by their common targets and approaches. SDG 1 aims to end extreme poverty and expand social protection coverage by 2030. Achievement of SDG 1 is likely to affect the tuberculosis epidemic through a range of pathways. We estimate the reduction in global tuberculosis incidence that could be obtained by reaching SDG 1. Methods: We developed a conceptual framework linking key indicators of SDG 1 progress to tuberculosis incidence via well described risk factor pathways and populated it with data from the SDG data repository and the WHO tuberculosis database for 192 countries. Correlations and mediation analyses informed the strength of the association between the SDG 1 subtargets and tuberculosis incidence, resulting in a simplified framework for modelling. The simplified framework linked key indicators for SDG 1 directly to tuberculosis incidence. We applied an exponential decay model based on linear associations between SDG 1 indicators and tuberculosis incidence to estimate tuberculosis incidence in 2035. Findings: Ending extreme poverty resulted in a reduction in global incidence of tuberculosis of 33·4% (95% credible interval 15·5–44·5 by 2035 and expanding social protection coverage resulted in a reduction in incidence of 76·1% (45·2–89·9 by 2035; both pathways together resulted in a reduction in incidence of 84·3% (54·7–94·9. Interpretation: Full achievement of SDG 1 could have a substantial effect on the global burden of tuberculosis. Cross-sectoral approaches that promote poverty reduction and social protection expansion will be crucial complements to health interventions, accelerating progress towards the End TB targets. Funding: World Health Organization.

  13. The impact of social protection and poverty elimination on global tuberculosis incidence: a statistical modelling analysis of Sustainable Development Goal 1.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carter, Daniel J; Glaziou, Philippe; Lönnroth, Knut; Siroka, Andrew; Floyd, Katherine; Weil, Diana; Raviglione, Mario; Houben, Rein M G J; Boccia, Delia

    2018-05-01

    The End TB Strategy and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are intimately linked by their common targets and approaches. SDG 1 aims to end extreme poverty and expand social protection coverage by 2030. Achievement of SDG 1 is likely to affect the tuberculosis epidemic through a range of pathways. We estimate the reduction in global tuberculosis incidence that could be obtained by reaching SDG 1. We developed a conceptual framework linking key indicators of SDG 1 progress to tuberculosis incidence via well described risk factor pathways and populated it with data from the SDG data repository and the WHO tuberculosis database for 192 countries. Correlations and mediation analyses informed the strength of the association between the SDG 1 subtargets and tuberculosis incidence, resulting in a simplified framework for modelling. The simplified framework linked key indicators for SDG 1 directly to tuberculosis incidence. We applied an exponential decay model based on linear associations between SDG 1 indicators and tuberculosis incidence to estimate tuberculosis incidence in 2035. Ending extreme poverty resulted in a reduction in global incidence of tuberculosis of 33·4% (95% credible interval 15·5-44·5) by 2035 and expanding social protection coverage resulted in a reduction in incidence of 76·1% (45·2-89·9) by 2035; both pathways together resulted in a reduction in incidence of 84·3% (54·7-94·9). Full achievement of SDG 1 could have a substantial effect on the global burden of tuberculosis. Cross-sectoral approaches that promote poverty reduction and social protection expansion will be crucial complements to health interventions, accelerating progress towards the End TB targets. World Health Organization. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  14. Dose-volume modeling of salivary function in patients with head-and-neck cancer receiving radiotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blanco, Angel I.; Chao, K.S. Clifford; El Naqa, Issam; Franklin, Gregg E.; Zakarian, Konstantin; Vicic, Milos; Deasy, Joseph O.

    2005-01-01

    Purpose: We investigated the factors that affect salivary function after head-and-neck radiotherapy (RT), including parotid gland dose-volume effects, potential compensation by less-irradiated gland tissue, and functional recovery over time. Methods and Materials: Sixty-five patients with head-and-neck tumors were enrolled in a prospective salivary function study. RT was delivered using intensity-modulated RT (n = 45), forward-planning three-dimensional conformal RT (n = 14), or three-dimensional conformal RT with an intensity-modulated RT boost (n = 6). Whole salivary flow was measured before therapy and at 6 months (n = 61) and 12 months (n = 31) after RT. A wide variety of dose-volume models to predict post-RT salivary function were tested. Xerostomia was defined according to the subjective, objective, management, analytic (SOMA) criteria as occurring when posttreatment salivary function was s ] = 0.46, p s = 0.73), stimulated saliva flow at 12 months (R s = 0.54), and quality-of-life score at 6 months (R s = 0.35) after RT. Conclusion: Stimulated parotid salivary gland dose-volume models strongly correlated with both stimulated salivary function and quality-of-life scores at 6 months after RT. The mean stimulated saliva flow rates improved from 6 to 12 months after RT. Salivary function, in each gland, appeared to be lost exponentially at a rate of approximately 5%/1 Gy of mean dose. Additional research is necessary to distinguish among the models for use in treatment planning. The incidence of xerostomia was significantly decreased when the mean dose of at least one parotid gland was kept to <25.8 Gy with conventional fractionation. However, even lower mean doses imply increased late salivary function

  15. Using remote sensing and modeling techniques to investigate the annual parasite incidence of malaria in Loreto, Peru

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mousam, Aneela; Maggioni, Viviana; Delamater, Paul L.; Quispe, Antonio M.

    2017-10-01

    Between 2001 and 2010 significant progress was made towards reducing the number of malaria cases in Peru; however, the country saw an increase between 2011 and 2015. This work attempts to uncover the associations among various climatic and environmental variables and the annual malaria parasite incidence in the Peruvian region of Loreto. A Multilevel Mixed-effects Poisson Regression model is employed, focusing on the 2009-2013 period, when trends in malaria incidence shifted from decreasing to increasing. The results indicate that variations in elevation (β = 0.78; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.75-0.81), soil moisture (β = 0.0021; 95% CI, 0.0019-0.0022), rainfall (β = 0.59; 95% CI, 0.56-0.61), and normalized difference vegetation index (β = 2.13; 95% CI, 1.83-2.43) is associated with higher annual parasite incidence, whereas an increase in temperature (β = -0.0043; 95% CI, - 0.0044- 0.0041) is associated with a lower annual parasite incidence. The results from this study are particularly useful for healthcare workers in Loreto and have the potential of being integrated within malaria elimination plans.

  16. Modes of interaction between nanostructured metal and a conducting mirror as a function of separation and incident polarization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonnie, F.; Arnold, M. D.; Smith, G. B.; Gentle, A. R.

    2013-09-01

    The optical resonances that occur in nanostructured metal layers are modulated in thin film stacks if the nanostructured layer is separated from a reflecting conducting layer by various thicknesses of thin dielectric. We have measured and modeled the optical response of interacting silver layers, with alumina spacer thickness ranging from a few nm to 50 nm, for s- and p-polarized incident light, and a range of incident angles. Standard thin film models, including standard effective medium models for the nanostructured layer, will break down for spacer thickness below a critical threshold. For example, with polarisation in the film plane and some nano-islands, it may occur at around 10 nm depending on spacer refractive index. Of particular interest here are novel effects observed with the onset of percolation in the nanolayer. Hot spot effects can be modified by nearby mirrors. Other modes to consider include (a) a two-particle mode involving a particle and its mirror image (b) A Fano resonance from hybridisation of localized and de-localised plasmon modes (c) a Babinet's core-(partial) shell particle with metal core-dielectric shell in metal (d) spacing dependent phase modulation (e) the impact of field gradients induced by the mirror at the nano-layer.

  17. HIV Trends in the United States: Diagnoses and Estimated Incidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, H Irene; Song, Ruiguang; Tang, Tian; An, Qian; Prejean, Joseph; Dietz, Patricia; Hernandez, Angela L; Green, Timothy; Harris, Norma; McCray, Eugene; Mermin, Jonathan

    2017-02-03

    The best indicator of the impact of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevention programs is the incidence of infection; however, HIV is a chronic infection and HIV diagnoses may include infections that occurred years before diagnosis. Alternative methods to estimate incidence use diagnoses, stage of disease, and laboratory assays of infection recency. Using a consistent, accurate method would allow for timely interpretation of HIV trends. The objective of our study was to assess the recent progress toward reducing HIV infections in the United States overall and among selected population segments with available incidence estimation methods. Data on cases of HIV infection reported to national surveillance for 2008-2013 were used to compare trends in HIV diagnoses, unadjusted and adjusted for reporting delay, and model-based incidence for the US population aged ≥13 years. Incidence was estimated using a biomarker for recency of infection (stratified extrapolation approach) and 2 back-calculation models (CD4 and Bayesian hierarchical models). HIV testing trends were determined from behavioral surveys for persons aged ≥18 years. Analyses were stratified by sex, race or ethnicity (black, Hispanic or Latino, and white), and transmission category (men who have sex with men, MSM). On average, HIV diagnoses decreased 4.0% per year from 48,309 in 2008 to 39,270 in 2013 (Pyear (Pyears, overall, the percentage of persons who ever had received an HIV test or had had a test within the past year remained stable; among MSM testing increased. For women, all 3 incidence models corroborated the decreasing trend in HIV diagnoses, and HIV diagnoses and 2 incidence models indicated decreases among blacks and whites. The CD4 and Bayesian hierarchical models, but not the stratified extrapolation approach, indicated decreases in incidence among MSM. HIV diagnoses and CD4 and Bayesian hierarchical model estimates indicated decreases in HIV incidence overall, among both sexes and all

  18. The Incidence Patterns Model to Estimate the Distribution of New HIV Infections in Sub-Saharan Africa: Development and Validation of a Mathematical Model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Annick Bórquez

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Programmatic planning in HIV requires estimates of the distribution of new HIV infections according to identifiable characteristics of individuals. In sub-Saharan Africa, robust routine data sources and historical epidemiological observations are available to inform and validate such estimates.We developed a predictive model, the Incidence Patterns Model (IPM, representing populations according to factors that have been demonstrated to be strongly associated with HIV acquisition risk: gender, marital/sexual activity status, geographic location, "key populations" based on risk behaviours (sex work, injecting drug use, and male-to-male sex, HIV and ART status within married or cohabiting unions, and circumcision status. The IPM estimates the distribution of new infections acquired by group based on these factors within a Bayesian framework accounting for regional prior information on demographic and epidemiological characteristics from trials or observational studies. We validated and trained the model against direct observations of HIV incidence by group in seven rounds of cohort data from four studies ("sites" conducted in Manicaland, Zimbabwe; Rakai, Uganda; Karonga, Malawi; and Kisesa, Tanzania. The IPM performed well, with the projections' credible intervals for the proportion of new infections per group overlapping the data's confidence intervals for all groups in all rounds of data. In terms of geographical distribution, the projections' credible intervals overlapped the confidence intervals for four out of seven rounds, which were used as proxies for administrative divisions in a country. We assessed model performance after internal training (within one site and external training (between sites by comparing mean posterior log-likelihoods and used the best model to estimate the distribution of HIV incidence in six countries (Gabon, Kenya, Malawi, Rwanda, Swaziland, and Zambia in the region. We subsequently inferred the potential

  19. The Incidence Patterns Model to Estimate the Distribution of New HIV Infections in Sub-Saharan Africa: Development and Validation of a Mathematical Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bórquez, Annick; Cori, Anne; Pufall, Erica L; Kasule, Jingo; Slaymaker, Emma; Price, Alison; Elmes, Jocelyn; Zaba, Basia; Crampin, Amelia C; Kagaayi, Joseph; Lutalo, Tom; Urassa, Mark; Gregson, Simon; Hallett, Timothy B

    2016-09-01

    Programmatic planning in HIV requires estimates of the distribution of new HIV infections according to identifiable characteristics of individuals. In sub-Saharan Africa, robust routine data sources and historical epidemiological observations are available to inform and validate such estimates. We developed a predictive model, the Incidence Patterns Model (IPM), representing populations according to factors that have been demonstrated to be strongly associated with HIV acquisition risk: gender, marital/sexual activity status, geographic location, "key populations" based on risk behaviours (sex work, injecting drug use, and male-to-male sex), HIV and ART status within married or cohabiting unions, and circumcision status. The IPM estimates the distribution of new infections acquired by group based on these factors within a Bayesian framework accounting for regional prior information on demographic and epidemiological characteristics from trials or observational studies. We validated and trained the model against direct observations of HIV incidence by group in seven rounds of cohort data from four studies ("sites") conducted in Manicaland, Zimbabwe; Rakai, Uganda; Karonga, Malawi; and Kisesa, Tanzania. The IPM performed well, with the projections' credible intervals for the proportion of new infections per group overlapping the data's confidence intervals for all groups in all rounds of data. In terms of geographical distribution, the projections' credible intervals overlapped the confidence intervals for four out of seven rounds, which were used as proxies for administrative divisions in a country. We assessed model performance after internal training (within one site) and external training (between sites) by comparing mean posterior log-likelihoods and used the best model to estimate the distribution of HIV incidence in six countries (Gabon, Kenya, Malawi, Rwanda, Swaziland, and Zambia) in the region. We subsequently inferred the potential contribution of each

  20. On the conversion of functional models : Bridging differences between functional taxonomies in the modeling of user actions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Eck, D.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, I discuss a methodology for the conversion of functional models between functional taxonomies developed by Kitamura et al. (2007) and Ookubo et al. (2007). They apply their methodology to the conversion of functional models described in terms of the Functional Basis taxonomy into

  1. Optimized oral cholera vaccine distribution strategies to minimize disease incidence: A mixed integer programming model and analysis of a Bangladesh scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smalley, Hannah K; Keskinocak, Pinar; Swann, Julie; Hinman, Alan

    2015-11-17

    In addition to improved sanitation, hygiene, and better access to safe water, oral cholera vaccines can help to control the spread of cholera in the short term. However, there is currently no systematic method for determining the best allocation of oral cholera vaccines to minimize disease incidence in a population where the disease is endemic and resources are limited. We present a mathematical model for optimally allocating vaccines in a region under varying levels of demographic and incidence data availability. The model addresses the questions of where, when, and how many doses of vaccines to send. Considering vaccine efficacies (which may vary based on age and the number of years since vaccination), we analyze distribution strategies which allocate vaccines over multiple years. Results indicate that, given appropriate surveillance data, targeting age groups and regions with the highest disease incidence should be the first priority, followed by other groups primarily in order of disease incidence, as this approach is the most life-saving and cost-effective. A lack of detailed incidence data results in distribution strategies which are not cost-effective and can lead to thousands more deaths from the disease. The mathematical model allows for what-if analysis for various vaccine distribution strategies by providing the ability to easily vary parameters such as numbers and sizes of regions and age groups, risk levels, vaccine price, vaccine efficacy, production capacity and budget. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Mixture models for undiagnosed prevalent disease and interval-censored incident disease: applications to a cohort assembled from electronic health records.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheung, Li C; Pan, Qing; Hyun, Noorie; Schiffman, Mark; Fetterman, Barbara; Castle, Philip E; Lorey, Thomas; Katki, Hormuzd A

    2017-09-30

    For cost-effectiveness and efficiency, many large-scale general-purpose cohort studies are being assembled within large health-care providers who use electronic health records. Two key features of such data are that incident disease is interval-censored between irregular visits and there can be pre-existing (prevalent) disease. Because prevalent disease is not always immediately diagnosed, some disease diagnosed at later visits are actually undiagnosed prevalent disease. We consider prevalent disease as a point mass at time zero for clinical applications where there is no interest in time of prevalent disease onset. We demonstrate that the naive Kaplan-Meier cumulative risk estimator underestimates risks at early time points and overestimates later risks. We propose a general family of mixture models for undiagnosed prevalent disease and interval-censored incident disease that we call prevalence-incidence models. Parameters for parametric prevalence-incidence models, such as the logistic regression and Weibull survival (logistic-Weibull) model, are estimated by direct likelihood maximization or by EM algorithm. Non-parametric methods are proposed to calculate cumulative risks for cases without covariates. We compare naive Kaplan-Meier, logistic-Weibull, and non-parametric estimates of cumulative risk in the cervical cancer screening program at Kaiser Permanente Northern California. Kaplan-Meier provided poor estimates while the logistic-Weibull model was a close fit to the non-parametric. Our findings support our use of logistic-Weibull models to develop the risk estimates that underlie current US risk-based cervical cancer screening guidelines. Published 2017. This article has been contributed to by US Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA. Published 2017. This article has been contributed to by US Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.

  3. Incidence of sexually transmitted infections during pregnancy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chloe A Teasdale

    Full Text Available Prevalence of sexually transmitted infections (STI is high among pregnant women in certain settings. We estimated STI incidence and compared STI risk in pregnant and non-pregnant women. Data came from the Methods for Improving Reproductive Health in Africa (MIRA study conducted in South Africa and Zimbabwe 2003-2006. Women aged 18-50 years with at least one follow-up visit within 6 months of enrollment were included. Follow-up visits included laboratory testing for pregnancy, chlamydia, gonorrhea, trichomoniasis, and HIV, as well as self-report of hormonal contraceptive (HC use, sexual behaviors and intravaginal practices. All visits were classified according to pregnancy status. Incidence of each STI was calculated using follow-up time. Cox proportional hazards models were fitted using pregnancy as a time-varying exposure and sexual behaviors and intravaginal practices as time-varying covariates. Among 4,549 women, 766 (16.8% had a positive pregnancy test. Median follow-up time was 18 months [IQR: 12-24]. The overall incidence rate of chlamydia was 6.7 per 100 person years (py and 9.9/100py during pregnancy; gonorrhea incidence was 2.7/100py and 4.9/100py during pregnancy; trichomoniasis incidence was 7.1/100py overall and 9.2/100py during pregnancy. Overall HIV incidence was 3.9/100py and 3.8/100py during pregnancy. In crude models, pregnancy increased risk for chlamydia (hazard ratio (HR 1.5, 95%CI: 1.1-1.2, however there was no increased risk of any measured STI in adjusted models. STI Incidence was high during pregnancy however pregnancy did not increase STI risk after adjustment for sexual behaviors. Greater efforts are needed to help pregnant women avoid STIs.

  4. Statistical modelling with quantile functions

    CERN Document Server

    Gilchrist, Warren

    2000-01-01

    Galton used quantiles more than a hundred years ago in describing data. Tukey and Parzen used them in the 60s and 70s in describing populations. Since then, the authors of many papers, both theoretical and practical, have used various aspects of quantiles in their work. Until now, however, no one put all the ideas together to form what turns out to be a general approach to statistics.Statistical Modelling with Quantile Functions does just that. It systematically examines the entire process of statistical modelling, starting with using the quantile function to define continuous distributions. The author shows that by using this approach, it becomes possible to develop complex distributional models from simple components. A modelling kit can be developed that applies to the whole model - deterministic and stochastic components - and this kit operates by adding, multiplying, and transforming distributions rather than data.Statistical Modelling with Quantile Functions adds a new dimension to the practice of stati...

  5. IDAS-RR: an incident data base system for research reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsumoto, Kiyoshi; Kohsaka, Atsuo; Kaminaga, Masanori; Murayama, Youji; Ohnishi, Nobuaki; Maniwa, Masaki.

    1990-03-01

    An Incident Data Base System for Research Reactors, IDAS-RR, has been developed. IDAS-RR has information about abnormal incidents (failures, transients, accidents, etc.) of research reactors in the world. Data reference, input, editing and other functions of IDAS-RR are menu driven. The routine processing and data base management functions are performed by the system software and hardware. PC-9801 equipment was selected as the hardware because of its portability and popularity. IDAS-RR provides effective reference information for the following activities. 1) Analysis of abnormal incident of research reactors, 2) Detail analysis of research reactor behavior in the abnormal incident for building the knowledge base of the reactor emergency diagnostic system for research reactor, 3) Planning counter-measure for emergency situation in the research reactor. This report is a user's manual of IDAS-RR. (author)

  6. Function Model for Community Health Service Information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Peng; Pan, Feng; Liu, Danhong; Xu, Yongyong

    In order to construct a function model of community health service (CHS) information for development of CHS information management system, Integration Definition for Function Modeling (IDEF0), an IEEE standard which is extended from Structured Analysis and Design(SADT) and now is a widely used function modeling method, was used to classifying its information from top to bottom. The contents of every level of the model were described and coded. Then function model for CHS information, which includes 4 super-classes, 15 classes and 28 sub-classed of business function, 43 business processes and 168 business activities, was established. This model can facilitate information management system development and workflow refinement.

  7. Medication incidents reported to an online incident reporting system.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Alrwisan, Adel

    2011-01-15

    AIMS: Approximately 20% of deaths from adverse events are related to medication incidents, costing the NHS an additional £500 million annually. Less than 5% of adverse events are reported. This study aims to assess the reporting rate of medication incidents in NHS facilities in the north east of Scotland, and to describe the types and outcomes of reported incidents among different services. Furthermore, we wished to quantify the proportion of reported incidents according to the reporters\\' profession. METHODS: A retrospective description was made of medication incidents reported to an online reporting system (DATIX) over a 46-month-period (July 2005 to April 2009). Reports originated from acute and community hospitals, mental health, and primary care facilities. RESULTS: Over the study period there were 2,666 incidents reported with a mean monthly reporting rate of 78.2\\/month (SD±16.9). 6.1% of all incidents resulted in harm, with insulin being the most commonly implicated medication. Nearly three-quarters (74.2%, n=1,978) of total incidents originated from acute hospitals. Administration incidents were implicated in the majority of the reported medication incidents (59%), followed by prescribing (10.8%) and dispensing (9.9%), while the nondescript "other medication incidents" accounted for 20.3% of total incidents. The majority of reports were made by nursing and midwifery staff (80%), with medical and dental professionals reporting the lowest number of incidents (n=56, 2%). CONCLUSIONS: The majority of medication incidents in this study were reported by nursing and midwifery staff, and were due to administration incidents. There is a clear need to elucidate the reasons for the limited contribution of the medical and dental professionals to reporting medication incidents.

  8. The application of equilibrium models to incidence situations using the example of the exposure pathway human milk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Steiner, Martin; Karcher, Klaus; Nosske, Dietmar

    2012-01-01

    The radiation exposure after a short-term release of radioactive substances is often calculated assuming equilibrium conditions. An example is that of the German Incident Calculation Bases for nuclear power plants with pressurized water reactors. Here, the contamination of human milk is calculated using transfer factors. Applying this equilibrium model to incident situations raises the question whether baby's radiation exposure is adequately assessed. This contribution shows that compliance with the relevant dose limits of paragraph 49 of the German Radiation Protection Ordinance is ensured for design basis accidents on the assumption that the hypothetical breastfeeding period starts at the beginning of the activity release. Comparative analyses were performed against the biokinetic models applied by ICRP for radiation protection purposes, taking the reference nuclides 137 Cs, 90 Sr, 131 I, 241 Am and long-lived plutonium isotopes as examples. (orig.)

  9. Functional model of biological neural networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lo, James Ting-Ho

    2010-12-01

    A functional model of biological neural networks, called temporal hierarchical probabilistic associative memory (THPAM), is proposed in this paper. THPAM comprises functional models of dendritic trees for encoding inputs to neurons, a first type of neuron for generating spike trains, a second type of neuron for generating graded signals to modulate neurons of the first type, supervised and unsupervised Hebbian learning mechanisms for easy learning and retrieving, an arrangement of dendritic trees for maximizing generalization, hardwiring for rotation-translation-scaling invariance, and feedback connections with different delay durations for neurons to make full use of present and past informations generated by neurons in the same and higher layers. These functional models and their processing operations have many functions of biological neural networks that have not been achieved by other models in the open literature and provide logically coherent answers to many long-standing neuroscientific questions. However, biological justifications of these functional models and their processing operations are required for THPAM to qualify as a macroscopic model (or low-order approximate) of biological neural networks.

  10. Predictors of incident depression after hip fracture surgery.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oude Voshaar, R.C.; Banerjee, S.; Horan, M.; Baldwin, R.; Pendleton, N.; Proctor, R.; Tarrier, N.; Woodward, Y.; Burns, A.

    2007-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Depression after hip fracture surgery is prevalent and associated with increased mortality rates and impaired functional recovery. The incidence of new-onset depressive symptoms in patients initially not depressed after hip fracture surgery and their relationship with functional recovery

  11. The influence of psycho-emotional stress in children of primary school age on the incidence of recurrent upper respiratory tract infections and the functional state of the myocardium

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L.S. Ovcharenko

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Background. Scientific and technical progress, intensification of educational process and information overload have a negative effect on unformed central nervous system of primary schoolchildren, causing stress, which affects the increase in the incidence of recurrent upper respiratory tract infections (URTI and the functional state of the myocardium. In view of this, we analyzed a functional state of myocardium in children with recurrent URTI. The critical duration of the work of primary school child with electronic means of communication, which affects the quality of nighttime sleep and the nature of awakening in the morning, was established. We have studied the relationship of the above mentioned with the incidence of URTI, the level of school anxiety and functional reserve of the myocardium. The purpose of the study was to evaluate the functional reserve of the myocardium in children of primary school age, depending on the incidence of URTI and the level of psycho-emotional activity. Materials and me­thods. 239 children aged 6 to 9 years were examined. The analysis of the functional reserve of the myocardium was carried out in pupils with different incidence of the URTI, depending on the age. The influence of electronic communications on the quality of nighttime sleep and morning awakening was stu­died, and the level of school anxiety was evaluated. During the study, children were divided into two groups. Group 1 — children with recurrent acute respiratory diseases (n = 143. Group 2 — children who occasionally have URTI (n = 96. Results. Out of 239 children with recurrent acute respiratory infections, we have identified 173 children with reduced functional reserve of the myocardium (72.4 %. Among children with recurrent URTI, the incidence of reduced functional reserve of the myocardium was 76.2 %, and in occasionally ill children — 66.7 %. Children with recurrent URTI use electronic means of communication more often than

  12. Inner shell ionization by incident nuclei

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hansteen, J.M.

    1974-10-01

    The atomic Coulomb excitation process induced by impinging heavy charged particles such as protons, deuterons, α-particles and complex heavy ions is reviewed. Recent experimental and theoretical efforts have led toimproved understanding of the atomic Coulomb excitation as well as to discovery of new types of ionization mechanisms. The following models are mentioned: the Plane Wave Born Approximation (PWBA); theeeeeeeeeeeee modified PWBA model; the Binary Encounter Approximation (BEA); the Semi-Classical Approximation (SCA); the Perturbed-Stationary-State model (PSS). The structure of the SCA model is more thoroughly treated. Experimental results on single Coulomb ionizations of the K-, L-, and M-shells, and of the connected sub-shells by protons are compared with predictions. Most calculations are based on straight line projectile paths and non-relativistic hydrogen-like target electron wave functions. The BEA model and the SCA model seem to work reasonably well for multiple Coulomb ionizations by stripped light ions. Background effects in ion-atom collisions are commented upon. Future aspects of atomic Coulomb excitation by incident nuclei and ions are discussed. The interplay between Coulomb induced processes and united atom phenomena is especially mentioned. The simple ionization models have yielded valuable insights but it is suggested that this branch of collision physics has reached a turning point where new and more advanced and unifying models are needed. (JIW)

  13. Impact and Penetration of Thin Aluminum 2024 Flat Panels at Oblique Angles of Incidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruggeri, Charles R.; Revilock, Duane M.; Pereira, J. Michael; Emmerling, William; Queitzsch, Gilbert K., Jr.

    2015-01-01

    The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) are actively involved in improving the predictive capabilities of transient finite element computational methods for application to safety issues involving unintended impacts on aircraft and aircraft engine structures. One aspect of this work involves the development of an improved deformation and failure model for metallic materials, known as the Tabulated Johnson-Cook model, or MAT224, which has been implemented in the LS-DYNA commercial transient finite element analysis code (LSTC Corp., Livermore, CA) (Ref. 1). In this model the yield stress is a function of strain, strain rate and temperature and the plastic failure strain is a function of the state of stress, temperature and strain rate. The failure criterion is based on the accumulation of plastic strain in an element. The model also incorporates a regularization scheme to account for the dependency of plastic failure strain on mesh size. For a given material the model requires a significant amount of testing to determine the yield stress and failure strain as a function of the three-dimensional state of stress, strain rate and temperature. In addition, experiments are required to validate the model. Currently the model has been developed for Aluminum 2024 and validated against a series of ballistic impact tests on flat plates of various thicknesses (Refs. 1 to 3). Full development of the model for Titanium 6Al-4V is being completed, and mechanical testing for Inconel 718 has begun. The validation testing for the models involves ballistic impact tests using cylindrical projectiles impacting flat plates at a normal incidence (Ref. 2). By varying the thickness of the plates, different stress states and resulting failure modes are induced, providing a range of conditions over which the model can be validated. The objective of the study reported here was to provide experimental data to evaluate the model

  14. Effects of weather factors on dengue fever incidence and implications for interventions in Cambodia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Youngjo Choi

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Dengue viruses and their mosquito vectors are sensitive to their environment. Temperature, rainfall and humidity have well-defined roles in the transmission cycle. Therefore changes in these conditions may contribute to increasing incidence. The aim of this study was to examine the relationship between weather factors and dengue incidence in three provinces in Cambodia, in order to strengthen the evidence basis of dengue control strategies in this high-burden country. Methods We developed negative binomial models using monthly average maximum, minimum, mean temperatures and monthly cumulative rainfall over the period from January 1998 to December 2012. We adopted piecewise linear functions to estimate the incidence rate ratio (IRR between dengue incidence and weather factors for simplicity in interpreting the coefficients. We estimated the values of parameters below cut-points defined in terms of the results of sensitivity tests over a 0-3 month lagged period. Results Mean temperature was significantly associated with dengue incidence in all three provinces, but incidence did not correlate well with maximum temperature in Banteay Meanchey, nor with minimum temperature in Kampong Thom at a lag of three months in the negative binomial model. The monthly cumulative rainfall influence on the dengue incidence was significant in all three provinces, but not consistently over a 0-3 month lagged period. Rainfall significantly affected the dengue incidence at a lag of 0 to 3 months in Siem Reap, but it did not have an impact at a lag of 2 to 3 months in Banteay Meanchey, nor at a lag of 2 months in Kampong Thom. Conclusions The association between dengue incidence and weather factors also apparently varies by locality, suggesting that a prospective dengue early warning system would likely be best implemented at a local or regional scale, rather than nation-wide in Cambodia. Such spatial down-scaling would also enable dengue control

  15. Spatial modeling of malaria incidence rates in Sistan and Baluchistanprovince, Islamic Republic of Iran

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salehi, M.; Mohammad, K.; Frahani, Mahmud M.; Zeraati, H.; Nourijelyani, K.; Zayeri, F.

    2008-01-01

    Objective was to identify the effect of environmental factors on malariarisk and to visualize spatial map of malaria standard incidence rates inSistan and Baluchistan province, Islamic Republic of Iran. In thiscross-sectional study, the data from 42, 162 registered new malaria casesfrom 21 March 2001 (Iran new year) to 21 of March 2006 were studied. Todescribe the statistical association between environmental factors andmalaria risk, a generalized linear mixed model approach was utilized. Inaddition, we used the second ordered stationary Kriging and a variogram todetermine the appropriate spatial correlation structure among the malariastandard incidence rates, and provide a proper malaria risk map in the areaunder study. The obtained results from the spatial modeling revealed thathumidity (p=0.0004), temperature (p<0.0001) and elevation (p<0.0001) werepositively, and precipitation (p=0.0029) was inversely correlated with themalaria risk. Moreover, the malaria risk amp based on the predicted valuesshowed that the south part of this province (Baluchistan) has a higher riskof malaria, compared to the northern area (Sistan). Since the effectiveenvironmental factors on malaria risk are out of human's control, the healthpolicy makers in this province should pay more attention to the areas withhigher temperature, elevation and humidity, as well as, low rainfalldistricts. (author)

  16. Using HPV prevalence to predict cervical cancer incidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Monisha; Bruni, Laia; Diaz, Mireia; Castellsagué, Xavier; de Sanjosé, Silvia; Bosch, F Xavier; Kim, Jane J

    2013-04-15

    Knowledge of a country's cervical cancer (CC) burden is critical to informing decisions about resource allocation to combat the disease; however, many countries lack cancer registries to provide such data. We developed a prognostic model to estimate CC incidence rates in countries without cancer registries, leveraging information on human papilloma virus (HPV) prevalence, screening, and other country-level factors. We used multivariate linear regression models to identify predictors of CC incidence in 40 countries. We extracted age-specific HPV prevalence (10-year age groups) by country from a meta-analysis in women with normal cytology (N = 40) and matched to most recent CC incidence rates from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents when available (N = 36), or Globocan 2008 (N = 4). We evaluated country-level behavioral, economic, and public health indicators. CC incidence was significantly associated with age-specific HPV prevalence in women aged 35-64 (adjusted R-squared 0.41) ("base model"). Adding geographic region to the base model increased the adjusted R-squared to 0.77, but the further addition of screening was not statistically significant. Similarly, country-level macro-indicators did not improve predictive validity. Age-specific HPV prevalence at older ages was found to be a better predictor of CC incidence than prevalence in women under 35. However, HPV prevalence could not explain the entire CC burden as many factors modify women's risk of progression to cancer. Geographic region seemed to serve as a proxy for these country-level indicators. Our analysis supports the assertion that conducting a population-based HPV survey targeting women over age 35 can be valuable in approximating the CC risk in a given country. Copyright © 2012 UICC.

  17. Wakes behind surface-mounted obstacles: Impact of aspect ratio, incident angle, and surface roughness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tobin, Nicolas; Chamorro, Leonardo P.

    2018-03-01

    The so-called wake-moment coefficient C˜h and lateral wake deflection of three-dimensional windbreaks are explored in the near and far wake. Wind-tunnel experiments were performed to study the functional dependence of C˜h with windbreak aspect ratio, incidence angle, and the ratio of the windbreak height and surface roughness (h /z0 ). Supported with the data, we also propose basic models for the wake deflection of the windbreak in the near and far fields. The near-wake model is based on momentum conservation considering the drag on the windbreak, whereas the far-wake counterpart is based on existing models for wakes behind surface-mounted obstacles. Results show that C˜h does not change with windbreak aspect ratios of 10 or greater; however, it may be lower for an aspect ratio of 5. C˜h is found to change roughly with the cosine of the incidence angle, and to depend strongly on h /z0 . The data broadly support the proposed wake-deflection models, though better predictions could be made with improved knowledge of the windbreak drag coefficient.

  18. Computational Modelling and Optimal Control of Ebola Virus Disease with non-Linear Incidence Rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takaidza, I.; Makinde, O. D.; Okosun, O. K.

    2017-03-01

    The 2014 Ebola outbreak in West Africa has exposed the need to connect modellers and those with relevant data as pivotal to better understanding of how the disease spreads and quantifying the effects of possible interventions. In this paper, we model and analyse the Ebola virus disease with non-linear incidence rate. The epidemic model created is used to describe how the Ebola virus could potentially evolve in a population. We perform an uncertainty analysis of the basic reproductive number R 0 to quantify its sensitivity to other disease-related parameters. We also analyse the sensitivity of the final epidemic size to the time control interventions (education, vaccination, quarantine and safe handling) and provide the cost effective combination of the interventions.

  19. The application of equilibrium models to incidence situations using the example of the exposure pathway human milk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Steiner, Martin; Karcher, Klaus; Nosske, Dietmar [Bundesamt fuer Strahlenschutz, Oberschleissheim (Germany)

    2012-06-15

    The radiation exposure after a short-term release of radioactive substances is often calculated assuming equilibrium conditions. An example is that of the German Incident Calculation Bases for nuclear power plants with pressurized water reactors. Here, the contamination of human milk is calculated using transfer factors. Applying this equilibrium model to incident situations raises the question whether baby's radiation exposure is adequately assessed. This contribution shows that compliance with the relevant dose limits of paragraph 49 of the German Radiation Protection Ordinance is ensured for design basis accidents on the assumption that the hypothetical breastfeeding period starts at the beginning of the activity release. Comparative analyses were performed against the biokinetic models applied by ICRP for radiation protection purposes, taking the reference nuclides {sup 137}Cs, {sup 90}Sr, {sup 131}I, {sup 241}Am and long-lived plutonium isotopes as examples. (orig.)

  20. Untangling the Relationship Between Antiretroviral Therapy Use and Incident Pregnancy: A Marginal Structural Model Analysis Using Data From 47,313 HIV-Positive Women in East Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elul, Batya; Wools-Kaloustian, Kara K; Wu, Yingfeng; Musick, Beverly S; Nuwagaba-Biribonwoha, Harriet; Nash, Denis; Ayaya, Samuel; Bukusi, Elizabeth; Okong, Pius; Otieno, Juliana; Wabwire, Deo; Kambugu, Andrew; Yiannoutsos, Constantin T

    2016-07-01

    Scale-up of triple-drug antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Africa has transformed the context of childbearing for HIV-positive women and may impact pregnancy incidence in HIV programs. Using observational data from 47,313 HIV-positive women enrolled at 26 HIV clinics in Kenya and Uganda between 2001 and 2009, we calculated the crude cumulative incidence of pregnancy for the pre-ART and on-ART periods. The causal effect of ART use on incident pregnancy was assessed using inverse probability weighted marginal structural models, and the relationship was further explored in multivariable Cox models. Crude cumulative pregnancy incidence at 1 year after enrollment/ART initiation was 4.0% and 3.9% during the pre-ART and on-ART periods, respectively. In marginal structural models, ART use was not significantly associated with incident pregnancy [hazard ratio = 1.06; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.99 to 1.12]. Similarly, in Cox models, there was no significant relationship between ART use and incident pregnancy (cause-specific hazard ratio: 0.98; 95% CI: 0.91 to 1.05), but effect modification was observed. Specifically, women who were pregnant at enrollment and on ART had an increased risk of incident pregnancy compared to those not pregnant at enrollment and not on ART (cause-specific hazard ratio: 1.11; 95% CI: 1.01 to 1.23). In this large cohort, ART initiation was not associated with incident pregnancy in the general population of women enrolling in HIV care but rather only among those pregnant at enrollment. This finding further highlights the importance of scaling up access to lifelong treatment for pregnant women.

  1. Point-by-point model description of average prompt neutron data as a function of total kinetic energy of fission fragments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tudora, A.

    2013-01-01

    The experimental data of average prompt neutron multiplicity as a function of total kinetic energy of fragments <ν>(TKE) exhibit, especially in the case of 252 Cf(SF), different slopes dTKE/dν and different behaviours at low TKE values. The Point-by-Point (PbP) model can describe these different behaviours. The higher slope dTKE/dν and the flattening of <ν> at low TKE exhibited by a part of experimental data sets is very well reproduced when the PbP multi-parametric matrix ν(A,TKE) is averaged over a double distribution Y(A,TKE). The lower slope and the almost linear behaviour over the entire TKE range exhibited by other data sets is well described when the same matrix ν(A,TKE) is averaged over a single distribution Y(A). In the case of average prompt neutron energy in SCM as a function of TKE, different dTKE/dε slopes are also obtained by averaging the same PbP matrix ε(A,TKE) over Y(A,TKE) and over Y(A). The results are exemplified for 3 fissioning systems benefiting of experimental data as a function of TKE: 252 Cf(SF), 235 U(n th ,f) and 239 Pu(n th ,f). In the case of 234 U(n,f) for the first time it was possible to calculate <ν>(TKE) and <ε>(TKE) at many incident energies by averaging the PbP multi-parametric matrices over the experimental Y(A,TKE) distributions recently measured at IRMM for 14 incident energies in the range 0.3- 5 MeV. The results revealed that the slope dTKE/dν does not vary with the incident energy and the flattening of <ν> at low TKE values is more pronounced at low incident energies. The average model parameters dependences on TKE resulted from the PbP treatment allow the use of the most probable fragmentation approach, having the great advantage to provide results at many TKE values in a very short computing time compared to PbP and Monte Carlo treatments. (author)

  2. The Swiss cheese model of safety incidents: are there holes in the metaphor?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Perneger Thomas V

    2005-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Reason's Swiss cheese model has become the dominant paradigm for analysing medical errors and patient safety incidents. The aim of this study was to determine if the components of the model are understood in the same way by quality and safety professionals. Methods Survey of a volunteer sample of persons who claimed familiarity with the model, recruited at a conference on quality in health care, and on the internet through quality-related websites. The questionnaire proposed several interpretations of components of the Swiss cheese model: a slice of cheese, b hole, c arrow, d active error, e how to make the system safer. Eleven interpretations were compatible with this author's interpretation of the model, 12 were not. Results Eighty five respondents stated that they were very or quite familiar with the model. They gave on average 15.3 (SD 2.3, range 10 to 21 "correct" answers out of 23 (66.5% – significantly more than 11.5 "correct" answers that would expected by chance (p Conclusion The interpretations of specific features of the Swiss cheese model varied considerably among quality and safety professionals. Reaching consensus about concepts of patient safety requires further work.

  3. Value function in economic growth model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bagno, Alexander; Tarasyev, Alexandr A.; Tarasyev, Alexander M.

    2017-11-01

    Properties of the value function are examined in an infinite horizon optimal control problem with an unlimited integrand index appearing in the quality functional with a discount factor. Optimal control problems of such type describe solutions in models of economic growth. Necessary and sufficient conditions are derived to ensure that the value function satisfies the infinitesimal stability properties. It is proved that value function coincides with the minimax solution of the Hamilton-Jacobi equation. Description of the growth asymptotic behavior for the value function is provided for the logarithmic, power and exponential quality functionals and an example is given to illustrate construction of the value function in economic growth models.

  4. Statin Use, Incident Dementia and Alzheimer Disease in Elderly African Americans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hendrie, Hugh C; Hake, Ann; Lane, Kathleen; Purnell, Christianna; Unverzagt, Frederick; Smith-Gamble, Valerie; Murrell, Jill; Ogunniyi, Adesola; Baiyewu, Olusegun; Callahan, Chris; Saykin, Andrew; Taylor, Stanley; Hall, Kathleen; Gao, Su

    2015-08-07

    To investigate the association between statin use, incident dementia, and Alzheimer disease (AD) in a prospective elderly African American cohort. Two stage design with a screening interview followed by a comprehensive in-home assessment conducted over an eight-year period. Diagnoses of incident AD and dementia were made by consensus. Statin use was collected at each evaluation. Measurements of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL), C-reactive protein (CRP) and APOE genotype were obtained from baseline blood samples. Logistic regression models were used to test the association of statin use on incident dementia and AD and its possible association with lipid and CRP levels. Indianapolis, Indiana. From an original cohort of 2629 participants, a subsample of 974 African Americans aged >70 years with normal cognition, at least one follow up evaluation, complete statin information, and biomarker availability were included. Incident dementia and incident AD. After controlling for age at diagnosis, sex, education level, presence of the APOE ε4 allele and history of stroke for the incident dementia model, baseline use of statins was associated with a significantly decreased risk of incident dementia (OR=.44, P=.029) and incident AD (OR=.40, P=.029). The significant effect of statin use on reduced AD risk and trend for dementia risk was found only for those participants who reported consistent use over the observational period (incident AD: P=.034; incident dementia: P=.061). Additional models found no significant interaction between baseline statin use, baseline LDL, or CRP level and incident dementia/AD. Consistent use of statin medications during eight years of follow-up resulted in significantly reduced risk for incident AD and a trend toward reduced risk for incident dementia.

  5. Investigation of photon detection probability dependence of SPADnet-I digital photon counter as a function of angle of incidence, wavelength and polarization

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Játékos, Balázs, E-mail: jatekosb@eik.bme.hu; Ujhelyi, Ferenc; Lőrincz, Emőke; Erdei, Gábor

    2015-01-01

    SPADnet-I is a prototype, fully digital, high spatial and temporal resolution silicon photon counter, based on standard CMOS imaging technology, developed by the SPADnet consortium. Being a novel device, the exact dependence of photon detection probability (PDP) of SPADnet-I was not known as a function of angle of incidence, wavelength and polarization of the incident light. Our targeted application area of this sensor is next generation PET detector modules, where they will be used along with LYSO:Ce scintillators. Hence, we performed an extended investigation of PDP in a wide range of angle of incidence (0° to 80°), concentrating onto a 60 nm broad wavelength interval around the characteristic emission peak (λ=420 nm) of the scintillator. In the case where the sensor was optically coupled to a scintillator, our experiments showed a notable dependence of PDP on angle, polarization and wavelength. The sensor has an average PDP of approximately 30% from 0° to 60° angle of incidence, where it starts to drop rapidly. The PDP turned out not to be polarization dependent below 30°. If the sensor is used without a scintillator (i.e. the light source is in air), the polarization dependence is much less expressed, it begins only from 50°.

  6. Spinal Cord Injury due to Tumour or Metastasis in Aragón, Northeastern Spain (1991–2008: Incidence, Time Trends, and Neurological Function

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maayken Elizabeth Louise van den Berg

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. Understanding the presentation of spinal cord injury (SCI due to tumours considering population distribution and temporal trends is key to managing SCI health services. This study quantified incidence rates, function scores, and trends of SCI due to tumour or metastasis over an 18-year time period in a defined region in Spain. Methods. A retrospective cohort study included in-and outpatients with nontraumatic SCI due to tumour or metastasis admitted to a metropolitan hospital in Spain between 1991 and 2008. Main outcome measures were crude and age- and sex-adjusted incidence rates, tumour location and type, distribution by spinal level, neurological level of injury, and impairment ASIA scores. Results. Primary tumour or metastasis accounted for 32.5% of nontraumatic SCI with an incidence rate of 4.1 per million population. Increasing rates with age and over time were observed. Major pathology groups were intradural-extramedullary masses from which meningiomas and neurinomas accounted for 40%. Lesions were mostly incomplete with predominant ASIA Grade D. Conclusions. Increasing incidence rates of tumour-related SCI over time in the middle-aged and the elderly suggest a growing need for neurooncology health resources in the future.

  7. Novel micro-reactor flow cell for investigation of model catalysts using in situ grazing-incidence X-ray scattering.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kehres, Jan; Pedersen, Thomas; Masini, Federico; Andreasen, Jens Wenzel; Nielsen, Martin Meedom; Diaz, Ana; Nielsen, Jane Hvolbæk; Hansen, Ole; Chorkendorff, Ib

    2016-03-01

    The design, fabrication and performance of a novel and highly sensitive micro-reactor device for performing in situ grazing-incidence X-ray scattering experiments of model catalyst systems is presented. The design of the reaction chamber, etched in silicon on insulator (SIO), permits grazing-incidence small-angle X-ray scattering (GISAXS) in transmission through 10 µm-thick entrance and exit windows by using micro-focused beams. An additional thinning of the Pyrex glass reactor lid allows simultaneous acquisition of the grazing-incidence wide-angle X-ray scattering (GIWAXS). In situ experiments at synchrotron facilities are performed utilizing the micro-reactor and a designed transportable gas feed and analysis system. The feasibility of simultaneous in situ GISAXS/GIWAXS experiments in the novel micro-reactor flow cell was confirmed with CO oxidation over mass-selected Ru nanoparticles.

  8. Functional State Modelling of Saccharomyces cerevisiae Cultivations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iasen Hristozov

    2004-10-01

    Full Text Available The implementation of functional state approach for modelling of yeast cultivation is considered in this paper. This concept helps in monitoring and control of complex processes such as bioprocesses. Using of functional state modelling approach for fermentation processes aims to overcome the main disadvantage of using global process model, namely complex model structure and big number of model parameters. The main advantage of functional state modelling is that the parameters of each local model can be separately estimated from other local models parameters. The results achieved from batch, as well as from fed-batch, cultivations are presented.

  9. Incidence of abacavir hypersensitivity reactions in euroSIDA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bannister, Wendy P; Friis-Møller, Nina; Mocroft, Amanda

    2008-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The aim of the study was to investigate the incidence of abacavir-related hypersensitivity reaction (HSR) and associated deaths in EuroSIDA HIV-1-infected patients. METHODS: Poisson regression models were developed to compare incidence of abacavir discontinuation according to the line...

  10. Angular momentum and incident-energy dependence of nucleus-nucleus interaction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamaguchi, S.

    1991-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to understand intuitively the origin of the angular momentum and incident-energy dependence of the nucleus-nucleus interaction on the basis of the totally- antisymmetrized many-body theory. With the aim of understanding the structure of the nucleus-nucleus interaction, we show first that the nucleus-nucleus interaction can be written by the use of the density-distribution function and the phase-space distribution function instead of using the many-body wave function itself. And we show that the structure change of the density-distribution function with the increase of the angular momentum causes the angular momentum dependence of the nucleus-nucleus interaction and that the incident-energy dependence of the nucleus-nucleus interaction originates from the structure change of the phase-space distribution function

  11. Correlation functions of the Ising model and the eight-vertex model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ko, L.F.

    1986-01-01

    Calculations for the two-point correlation functions in the scaling limit for two statistical models are presented. In Part I, the Ising model with a linear defect is studied for T T/sub c/. The transfer matrix method of Onsager and Kaufman is used. The energy-density correlation is given by functions related to the modified Bessel functions. The dispersion expansion for the spin-spin correlation functions are derived. The dominant behavior for large separations at T not equal to T/sub c/ is extracted. It is shown that these expansions lead to systems of Fredholm integral equations. In Part II, the electric correlation function of the eight-vertex model for T < T/sub c/ is studied. The eight vertex model decouples to two independent Ising models when the four spin coupling vanishes. To first order in the four-spin coupling, the electric correlation function is related to a three-point function of the Ising model. This relation is systematically investigated and the full dispersion expansion (to first order in four-spin coupling) is obtained. The results is a new kind of structure which, unlike those of many solvable models, is apparently not expressible in terms of linear integral equations

  12. Variance Function Partially Linear Single-Index Models1.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lian, Heng; Liang, Hua; Carroll, Raymond J

    2015-01-01

    We consider heteroscedastic regression models where the mean function is a partially linear single index model and the variance function depends upon a generalized partially linear single index model. We do not insist that the variance function depend only upon the mean function, as happens in the classical generalized partially linear single index model. We develop efficient and practical estimation methods for the variance function and for the mean function. Asymptotic theory for the parametric and nonparametric parts of the model is developed. Simulations illustrate the results. An empirical example involving ozone levels is used to further illustrate the results, and is shown to be a case where the variance function does not depend upon the mean function.

  13. Functionalized anatomical models for EM-neuron Interaction modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neufeld, Esra; Cassará, Antonino Mario; Montanaro, Hazael; Kuster, Niels; Kainz, Wolfgang

    2016-06-01

    The understanding of interactions between electromagnetic (EM) fields and nerves are crucial in contexts ranging from therapeutic neurostimulation to low frequency EM exposure safety. To properly consider the impact of in vivo induced field inhomogeneity on non-linear neuronal dynamics, coupled EM-neuronal dynamics modeling is required. For that purpose, novel functionalized computable human phantoms have been developed. Their implementation and the systematic verification of the integrated anisotropic quasi-static EM solver and neuronal dynamics modeling functionality, based on the method of manufactured solutions and numerical reference data, is described. Electric and magnetic stimulation of the ulnar and sciatic nerve were modeled to help understanding a range of controversial issues related to the magnitude and optimal determination of strength-duration (SD) time constants. The results indicate the importance of considering the stimulation-specific inhomogeneous field distributions (especially at tissue interfaces), realistic models of non-linear neuronal dynamics, very short pulses, and suitable SD extrapolation models. These results and the functionalized computable phantom will influence and support the development of safe and effective neuroprosthetic devices and novel electroceuticals. Furthermore they will assist the evaluation of existing low frequency exposure standards for the entire population under all exposure conditions.

  14. Function modeling: improved raster analysis through delayed reading and function raster datasets

    Science.gov (United States)

    John S. Hogland; Nathaniel M. Anderson; J .Greg Jones

    2013-01-01

    Raster modeling is an integral component of spatial analysis. However, conventional raster modeling techniques can require a substantial amount of processing time and storage space, often limiting the types of analyses that can be performed. To address this issue, we have developed Function Modeling. Function Modeling is a new modeling framework that streamlines the...

  15. Non-Native Language Use and Risk of Incident Dementia in the Elderly

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanders, Amy E.; Hall, Charles B.; Katz, Mindy J.; Lipton, Richard B.

    2012-01-01

    Cognitive reserve is invoked to explain the protective effects of education and cognitively-stimulating activities against all-cause dementia and Alzheimer’s disease (AD). For non-native English speakers (n-NES), speaking English may be a cognitive activity associated with lower dementia risk. We hypothesized that n-NES have lower risk of incident dementia/AD and that educational level might modify this relationship. Participants took part in the Einstein Aging Study (Bronx, NY), a longitudinal study of aging and dementia. All (n = 1779) spoke fluent English and self-reported birthplace and whether English was their first language. n-NES additionally reported mother tongue, age of English acquisition, and current percentile-use of a non-English language. Nested Cox proportional hazards models progressively adjusted for gender, race, education, and immigrant and marital status estimated hazard ratios (HR) for incident dementia/AD as a function of n-NES status. 390 (22%) participants were n-NES. 126 incident dementia cases occurred during 4174 person-years of follow-up (median 1.44; range 0–16); 101 individuals met criteria for probable/possible AD. There was no statistically-significant association between n-NES status and incident dementia in the fully-adjusted model (HR 1.26; 95% CI 0.76–2.09; p = 0.36). Results were similar for AD. Stratification of education into three groups revealed increased risk of dementia for n-NES with ≥16 years of education (HR 3.97; 95% CI 1.62–9.75; p = 0.003). We conclude that n-NES status does not appear to have an independent protective effect against incident dementia/AD, and that n-NES status may contribute to risk of dementia in an education-dependent manner. PMID:22232011

  16. Association of Rare Loss-Of-Function Alleles in HAL, Serum Histidine: Levels and Incident Coronary Heart Disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Bing; Li, Alexander H; Muzny, Donna; Veeraraghavan, Narayanan; de Vries, Paul S; Bis, Joshua C; Musani, Solomon K; Alexander, Danny; Morrison, Alanna C; Franco, Oscar H; Uitterlinden, André; Hofman, Albert; Dehghan, Abbas; Wilson, James G; Psaty, Bruce M; Gibbs, Richard; Wei, Peng; Boerwinkle, Eric

    2015-04-01

    Histidine is a semiessential amino acid with antioxidant and anti-inflammatory properties. Few data are available on the associations between genetic variants, histidine levels, and incident coronary heart disease (CHD) in a population-based sample. By conducting whole exome sequencing on 1152 African Americans in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study and focusing on loss-of-function (LoF) variants, we identified 3 novel rare LoF variants in HAL, a gene that encodes histidine ammonia-lyase in the first step of histidine catabolism. These LoF variants had large effects on blood histidine levels (β=0.26; P=1.2×10(-13)). The positive association with histidine levels was replicated by genotyping an independent sample of 718 ARIC African Americans (minor allele frequency=1%; P=1.2×10(-4)). In addition, high blood histidine levels were associated with reduced risk of developing incident CHD with an average of 21.5 years of follow-up among African Americans (hazard ratio=0.18; P=1.9×10(-4)). This finding was validated in an independent sample of European Americans from the Framingham Heart Study (FHS) Offspring Cohort. However, LoF variants in HAL were not directly significantly associated with incident CHD after meta-analyzing results from the CHARGE Consortium. Three LoF mutations in HAL were associated with increased histidine levels, which in turn were shown to be inversely related to the risk of CHD among both African Americans and European Americans. Future investigations on the association between HAL gene variation and CHD are warranted. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

  17. Acupuncture Therapy and Incidence of Depression After Stroke.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Chung-Yen; Huang, Hsin-Chia; Chang, Hen-Hong; Yang, Tsung-Hsien; Chang, Chee-Jen; Chang, Su-Wei; Chen, Pei-Chun

    2017-06-01

    We investigated whether use of acupuncture within a 3-month poststroke period after hospital discharge is associated with reduced risk of depression. This cohort study included 16 046 patients aged ≥18 years with an initial hospitalization for stroke during 2000 and 2012 in the claims database of a universal health insurance program. Patients who had received acupuncture therapies within 3 months of discharge were defined as acupuncture users (n=1714). All patients were followed up for incidence of depression until the end of 2013. We assessed the association between use of acupuncture and incidence of depression using Cox proportional hazards models in all subjects and in propensity score-matched samples consisting of 1714 pairs of users and nonusers. During the follow-up period, the incidence of depression per 1000 person-years was 11.1 and 9.7 in users and nonusers, respectively. Neither multivariable-adjusted Cox models (hazard ratio, 1.04; 95% confidence interval, 0.84-1.29) nor the propensity score-matching model (hazard ratio, 1.06; 95% confidence interval, 0.79-1.42) revealed an association between use of acupuncture and incidence of depression. In patients admitted to hospital for stroke, acupuncture therapy within 3 months after discharge was not associated with subsequent incidence of depression. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

  18. System Safety Assessment Based on Past Incidents in Oil and Gas Industries: A Focused Approach in Forecasting of Minor, Severe, Critical, and Catastrophic Incidents, 2010–2015

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Praveen Patel

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Accident in an occupation which occurred due to series of repetitive minor incidents within the working environment. This work demonstrates the critical system safety assessment based on various incidents that took place to the different system and subsystem of two Indian oil refineries in five years of span 2010 to 2015. The categorization of incidents and hazard rate function of each incident category were classified and calculated. The result of Weibull analysis estimators in the form of scale and shape parameters provides useful information of incidents forecasting and their patterns in a particular time.

  19. Exploitation of geoinformatics at modelling of functional effects of forest functions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sitko, R.

    2005-01-01

    From point of view of space modelling geoinformatics has wide application in group of ecologic function of forest because they directly depend on natural conditions of site. A causa de cy modelling application was realised on the territory of TANAP (Tatras National Park), West Tatras, in the part Liptovske Kopy. The size of this territory is about 4,900 hectares and forests there subserve the first of all significant ecological functions, what are soil protection from erosion, water management, and anti-avalanche function. Of environmental functions they have recreational role of the forest and function of nature protection. Anti-avalanche and anti-erosion function of forest is evaluated in this presentation

  20. Spatio-temporal modelling of dengue fever incidence in Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Che-Him, Norziha; Ghazali Kamardan, M.; Saifullah Rusiman, Mohd; Sufahani, Suliadi; Mohamad, Mahathir; @ Kamariah Kamaruddin, Nafisah

    2018-04-01

    Previous studies reported significant relationship between dengue incidence rate (DIR) and both climatic and non-climatic factors. Therefore, this study proposes a generalised additive model (GAM) framework for dengue risk in Malaysia by using both climatic and non-climatic factors. The data used is monthly DIR for 12 states of Malaysia from 2001 to 2009. In this study, we considered an annual trend, seasonal effects, population, population density and lagged DIR, rainfall, temperature, number of rainy days and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The population density is found to be positively related to monthly DIR. There are generally weak relationships between monthly DIR and climate variables. A negative binomial GAM shows that there are statistically significant relationships between DIR with climatic and non-climatic factors. These include mean rainfall and temperature, the number of rainy days, sea surface temperature and the interaction between mean temperature (lag 1 month) and sea surface temperature (lag 6 months). These also apply to DIR (lag 3 months) and population density.

  1. Statistical text classifier to detect specific type of medical incidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Zoie Shui-Yee; Akiyama, Masanori

    2013-01-01

    WHO Patient Safety has put focus to increase the coherence and expressiveness of patient safety classification with the foundation of International Classification for Patient Safety (ICPS). Text classification and statistical approaches has showed to be successful to identifysafety problems in the Aviation industryusing incident text information. It has been challenging to comprehend the taxonomy of medical incidents in a structured manner. Independent reporting mechanisms for patient safety incidents have been established in the UK, Canada, Australia, Japan, Hong Kong etc. This research demonstrates the potential to construct statistical text classifiers to detect specific type of medical incidents using incident text data. An illustrative example for classifying look-alike sound-alike (LASA) medication incidents using structured text from 227 advisories related to medication errors from Global Patient Safety Alerts (GPSA) is shown in this poster presentation. The classifier was built using logistic regression model. ROC curve and the AUC value indicated that this is a satisfactory good model.

  2. Effect of Emergency Argon on FCF Operational Incidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Solbrig, Charles

    2011-01-01

    The following report presents analyses of operational incidents which are considered in the safety analysis of the FCF argon cell and the effect that the operability of the emergency argon system has on the course of these incidents. The purpose of this study is to determine if the emergency argon system makes a significant difference in ameliorating the course of these incidents. Six incidents were considered. The following three incidents were analyzed. These are: 1. Cooling failing on 2. Vacuum Pump Failing on 3. Argon Supplies Failing on. In the remaining three incidents, the emergency argon supply would have no effect on the course of these transients since it would not come on during these incidents. The transients are 1. Loss of Cooling 2. Loss of power (Differs from above by startup delay till the Diesel Generators come on.) 3. Cell rupture due to an earthquake or other cause. The analyses of the first three incidents are reported on in the next three sections. This report is issued realizing the control parameters used may not be optimum, and additional modeling must be done to model the inertia of refrigeration system, but the major conclusion concerning the need for the emergency argon system is still valid. The timing of some events may change with a more accurate model but the differences between the transients with and without emergency argon will remain the same. Some of the parameters assumed in the analyses are Makeup argon supply, 18 cfm, initiates when pressure is = -6 iwg., shuts off when pressure is = -3.1 iwg. 170,000 ft3 supply. Min 1/7th always available, can be cross connected to HFEF argon supply dewar. Emergency argon supply, 900 cfm, initiates when pressure is = -8 iwg. shuts off when pressure is =-4 iwg. reservoir 220 ft3, refilled when tank farm pressure reduces to 1050 psi which is about 110 ft3.

  3. Random incidence absorption coefficients of porous absorbers based on local and extended reaction models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jeong, Cheol-Ho

    2011-01-01

    resistivity and the absorber thickness on the difference between the two surface reaction models are examined and discussed. For a porous absorber backed by a rigid surface, the local reaction models give errors of less than 10% if the thickness exceeds 120 mm for a flow resistivity of 5000 Nm-4s. As the flow...... incidence acoustical characteristics of typical building elements made of porous materials assuming extended and local reaction. For each surface reaction, five well-established wave propagation models, the Delany-Bazley, Miki, Beranek, Allard-Champoux, and Biot model, are employed. Effects of the flow...... resistivity doubles, a decrease in the required thickness by 25 mm is observed to achieve the same amount of error. For an absorber backed by an air gap, the thickness ratio between the material and air cavity is important. If the absorber thickness is approximately 40% of the cavity depth, the local reaction...

  4. Mercury Exposure in Young Adulthood and Incidence of Diabetes Later in Life

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Ka; Xun, Pengcheng; Liu, Kiang; Morris, Steve; Reis, Jared; Guallar, Eliseo

    2013-01-01

    OBJECTIVE Laboratory studies suggest that exposure to methylmercury at a level similar to those found in fish may induce pancreatic islet β-cell dysfunction. Few, if any, human studies have examined the association between mercury exposure and diabetes incidence. We examined whether toenail mercury levels are associated with incidence of diabetes in a large prospective cohort. RESEACH DESIGN AND METHODS A prospective cohort of 3,875 American young adults, aged 20–32 years, free of diabetes in 1987 (baseline), were enrolled and followed six times until 2005. Baseline toenail mercury levels were measured with instrumental neutron-activation analysis. Incident diabetes was identified by plasma glucose levels, oral glucose tolerance tests, hemoglobin A1C levels, and/or antidiabetes medications. RESULTS A total of 288 incident cases of diabetes occurred over 18 years of follow-up. In multivariate analyses adjusted for age, sex, ethnicity, study center, education, smoking status, alcohol consumption, physical activity, family history of diabetes, intakes of long-chain n-3 fatty acids and magnesium, and toenail selenium, toenail mercury levels were positively associated with the incidence of diabetes. The hazard ratio (95% CI) of incident diabetes compared the highest to the lowest quintiles of mercury exposure was 1.65 (1.07–2.56; P for trend = 0.02). Higher mercury exposure at baseline was also significantly associated with decreased homeostasis model assessment of β-cell function index (P for trend mercury exposure in young adulthood may have elevated risk of diabetes later in life. PMID:23423697

  5. Duty hours and incidents in flight among commercial airline pilots.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Hagan, Anna Donnla; Issartel, Johann; Fletcher, Richard; Warrington, Giles

    2016-01-01

    Working long duty hours has often been associated with increased risk of incidents and accidents in transport industries. Despite this, information regarding the intermediate relationship between duty hours and incident risk is limited. This study aimed to test a work hours/incident model to identify the interplay of factors contributing to incidents within the aviation industry. Nine hundred and fifty-four European-registered commercial airline pilots completed a 30-item survey investigating self-report attitudes and experiences of fatigue. Path analysis was used to test the proposed model. The fit indices indicated this to be a good fit model (χ(2) = 11.066, df = 5, p = 0.05; Comparative Fit Index = 0.991; Normed Fit Index = 0.984; Tucker-Lewis Index = 0.962; Root Mean Square of Approximation = 0.036). Highly significant relationships were identified between duty hours and sleep disturbance (r = 0.18, p hours through to self-reported incidents in flight was identified. Further investigation employing both objective and subjective measures of sleep and fatigue is needed.

  6. Transient Analysis and Dosimetry of the Tokaimura Criticality Incident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pain, Christopher C.; Oliveira, Cassiano R.E. de; Goddard, Antony J. H.; Eaton, Matthew D.; Gundry, Sarah; Umpleby, Adrian P.

    2003-01-01

    This paper describes research on the application of the finite element transient criticality (FETCH) code to modeling and neutron dosimetry of the Tokaimura criticality incident. FETCH has been developed to model criticality transients in single and multiphase media and is applied here to fissile solution transient criticality. Since the initial transient behavior has different time scales and physics to the longer transient behavior, the transient modeling is divided into two parts: modeling the initial transient over a time scale of seconds in which radiolytic gases and free-surface sloshing play an important role in the transient - this provides information about the dose to workers; and modeling the long-term transient behavior following the initial transient that has a time scale over hours.The neutron dosimetry of worker A who received the largest dose during the Tokaimura criticality incident is also investigated here. This dose was received mainly in the first few seconds of the ensuing nuclear criticality transient. In addition to the multiorgan dosimetry of worker A, this work provides a method of helping to evaluate the yield in the initial phase of the criticality incident; it also shows how kinetic simulations can be calibrated so that they can be applied to investigate the physics behind the incident

  7. Measurement of Function Post Hip Fracture: Testing a Comprehensive Measurement Model of Physical Function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Resnick, Barbara; Gruber-Baldini, Ann L; Hicks, Gregory; Ostir, Glen; Klinedinst, N Jennifer; Orwig, Denise; Magaziner, Jay

    2016-07-01

    Measurement of physical function post hip fracture has been conceptualized using multiple different measures. This study tested a comprehensive measurement model of physical function. This was a descriptive secondary data analysis including 168 men and 171 women post hip fracture. Using structural equation modeling, a measurement model of physical function which included grip strength, activities of daily living, instrumental activities of daily living, and performance was tested for fit at 2 and 12 months post hip fracture, and among male and female participants. Validity of the measurement model of physical function was evaluated based on how well the model explained physical activity, exercise, and social activities post hip fracture. The measurement model of physical function fit the data. The amount of variance the model or individual factors of the model explained varied depending on the activity. Decisions about the ideal way in which to measure physical function should be based on outcomes considered and participants. The measurement model of physical function is a reliable and valid method to comprehensively measure physical function across the hip fracture recovery trajectory. © 2015 Association of Rehabilitation Nurses.

  8. Local and Global Function Model of the Liver

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Hesheng, E-mail: hesheng@umich.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan (United States); Feng, Mary [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan (United States); Jackson, Andrew [Department of Medical Physics, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York (United States); Ten Haken, Randall K.; Lawrence, Theodore S. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan (United States); Cao, Yue [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan (United States); Department of Radiology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan (United States); Department of Biomedical Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan (United States)

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: To develop a local and global function model in the liver based on regional and organ function measurements to support individualized adaptive radiation therapy (RT). Methods and Materials: A local and global model for liver function was developed to include both functional volume and the effect of functional variation of subunits. Adopting the assumption of parallel architecture in the liver, the global function was composed of a sum of local function probabilities of subunits, varying between 0 and 1. The model was fit to 59 datasets of liver regional and organ function measures from 23 patients obtained before, during, and 1 month after RT. The local function probabilities of subunits were modeled by a sigmoid function in relating to MRI-derived portal venous perfusion values. The global function was fitted to a logarithm of an indocyanine green retention rate at 15 minutes (an overall liver function measure). Cross-validation was performed by leave-m-out tests. The model was further evaluated by fitting to the data divided according to whether the patients had hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) or not. Results: The liver function model showed that (1) a perfusion value of 68.6 mL/(100 g · min) yielded a local function probability of 0.5; (2) the probability reached 0.9 at a perfusion value of 98 mL/(100 g · min); and (3) at a probability of 0.03 [corresponding perfusion of 38 mL/(100 g · min)] or lower, the contribution to global function was lost. Cross-validations showed that the model parameters were stable. The model fitted to the data from the patients with HCC indicated that the same amount of portal venous perfusion was translated into less local function probability than in the patients with non-HCC tumors. Conclusions: The developed liver function model could provide a means to better assess individual and regional dose-responses of hepatic functions, and provide guidance for individualized treatment planning of RT.

  9. Load function modelling for light impact

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klingmueller, O.

    1982-01-01

    For Pile Integrity Testing light weight drop hammers are used to induce stress waves. In the computational analysis of one-dimensional wave propagation a load function has to be used. Several mechanical models and corresponding load functions are discussed. It is shown that a bell-shaped function which does not correspond to a mechanical model is in best accordance with test results and does not lead to numerical disturbances in the computational results. (orig.) [de

  10. Exploring neighborhood inequality in female breast cancer incidence in Tehran using Bayesian spatial models and a spatial scan statistic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erfan Ayubi

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES The aim of this study was to explore the spatial pattern of female breast cancer (BC incidence at the neighborhood level in Tehran, Iran. METHODS The present study included all registered incident cases of female BC from March 2008 to March 2011. The raw standardized incidence ratio (SIR of BC for each neighborhood was estimated by comparing observed cases relative to expected cases. The estimated raw SIRs were smoothed by a Besag, York, and Mollie spatial model and the spatial empirical Bayesian method. The purely spatial scan statistic was used to identify spatial clusters. RESULTS There were 4,175 incident BC cases in the study area from 2008 to 2011, of which 3,080 were successfully geocoded to the neighborhood level. Higher than expected rates of BC were found in neighborhoods located in northern and central Tehran, whereas lower rates appeared in southern areas. The most likely cluster of higher than expected BC incidence involved neighborhoods in districts 3 and 6, with an observed-to-expected ratio of 3.92 (p<0.001, whereas the most likely cluster of lower than expected rates involved neighborhoods in districts 17, 18, and 19, with an observed-to-expected ratio of 0.05 (p<0.001. CONCLUSIONS Neighborhood-level inequality in the incidence of BC exists in Tehran. These findings can serve as a basis for resource allocation and preventive strategies in at-risk areas.

  11. Kidney Function, Proteinuria, and Cancer Incidence: The Korean Heart Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mok, Yejin; Matsushita, Kunihiro; Ballew, Shoshana H; Sang, Yingying; Jung, Keum Ji; Lee, Sunmi; Jee, Sun Ha; Coresh, Josef

    2017-10-01

    Reported associations of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) with cancer risk are inconsistent, and data for the proteinuria-cancer relationship are sparse. We sought to quantify the associations of cancer incidence with eGFR and with proteinuria in a large population-based cohort. A prospective cohort study. 242,583 adults (30-74 years old) without a diagnosis of cancer at baseline in the Korean Heart Study, based on health checkups in 1996 to 2004 with follow-up until 2012. Creatinine-based eGFR (≥90, 60-89, 45-59, and cancer incidence based on ICD-10 codes. 15,165 cases of cancer were detected. The relationship between eGFR and incidence of any cancer was J shaped, with the lowest risk at 45 to 59mL/min/1.73m 2 . There was 44% higher risk for any cancer among those with eGFRscancer risk, showing a dose-response relationship (HRs of 1.24 [95% CI, 1.13-1.35], 1.38 [95% CI, 1.17-1.63], and 1.66 [95% CI, 1.30-2.12] for 1+, 2+, and ≥3+ vs undetectable/trace). Examining site-specific cancer, eGFRkidney and ureteral cancer, multiple myeloma, and leukemia, whereas proteinuria ≥ 1+ (vs undetectable/trace) was related to a broader set of cancers (ie, stomach, rectal, liver, lung, ovarian, kidney, bladder, and multiple myeloma). After excluding study participants with follow-up less than 3 years, the associations remained consistent for kidney cancer and myeloma with eGFR and for rectal, liver, lung, and ovarian cancer with proteinuria. Relatively small number of participants with severely reduced eGFR or 70 years or older. Kidney measures, particularly proteinuria, were associated with increased incidence of cancer. Future studies are needed to better understand the pathophysiologic mechanisms underlying these associations. Copyright © 2017 National Kidney Foundation, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Incident ion charge state dependence of electron emission during slow multicharged ion-surface interactions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hughes, I.G.; Zeijlmans van Emmichoven, P.A.; Havener, C.C.; Overbury, S.H.; Robinson, M.T.; Zehner, D.M.; Meyer, F.W.

    1992-01-01

    Characteristic variations in the total electron yield γ as a function of crystal azimuthal orientation are reported for slow N 2+ , N 5+ and N 6+ ions incident on a Au(011) single crystal, together with measurements of γ as a function of incident ion velocity. Kinetic electron emission is shown to arise predominantly in close collisions between incident ions and target atoms, and potential electron emission is found to be essentially constant within our present velocity range. The incident ion charge state is shown to play no role in kinetic electron emission. Extremely fast neutralization times of the order of 10 - 15 secs are needed to explain the observations

  13. Irritable bowel syndrome: The incidence of concurrent psychopathology

    OpenAIRE

    Margie H Wilson; Anita D Stuart; H Gertie Pretorius

    1999-01-01

    The goal of this study was to improve understanding of the association between physiology and psychology in Functional Gastrointestinal disorders by considering the co-morbidity of lrritable Bowel Syndrome and psychopathology in a sector of the South African population. A comparison was made between the incidence of concurrent psychopathology in a sample of 48 white female patients, aged 25 to 55 years and diagnosed with lrritable Bowel Syndrome and the incidence of psychopathology in a contr...

  14. Effects of a multifactorial fall prevention program on fall incidence and physical function in community-dwelling older adults with risk of falls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Hsuei-Chen; Chang, Ku-Chou; Tsauo, Jau-Yih; Hung, Jen-Wen; Huang, Yu-Ching; Lin, Sang-I

    2013-04-01

    To evaluate effects of a multifactorial fall prevention program on fall incidence and physical function in community-dwelling older adults. Multicenter randomized controlled trial. Three medical centers and adjacent community health centers. Community-dwelling older adults (N=616) who have fallen in the previous year or are at risk of falling. After baseline assessment, eligible subjects were randomly allocated into the intervention group (IG) or the control group (CG), stratified by the Physiological Profile Assessment (PPA) fall risk level. The IG received a 3-month multifactorial intervention program including 8 weeks of exercise training, health education, home hazards evaluation/modification, along with medication review and ophthalmology/other specialty consults. The CG received health education brochures, referrals, and recommendations without direct exercise intervention. Primary outcome was fall incidence within 1 year. Secondary outcomes were PPA battery (overall fall risk index, vision, muscular strength, reaction time, balance, and proprioception), Timed Up & Go (TUG) test, Taiwan version of the International Physical Activity Questionnaire, EuroQol-5D, Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS), and the Falls Efficacy Scale-International at 3 months after randomization. Participants were 76±7 years old and included low risk 25.6%, moderate risk 25.6%, and marked risk 48.7%. The cumulative 1-year fall incidence was 25.2% in the IG and 27.6% in the CG (hazard ratio=.90; 95% confidence interval, .66-1.23). The IG improved more favorably than the CG on overall PPA fall risk index, reaction time, postural sway with eyes open, TUG test, and GDS, especially for those with marked fall risk. The multifactorial fall prevention program with exercise intervention improved functional performance at 3 months for community-dwelling older adults with risk of falls, but did not reduce falls at 1-year follow-up. Fall incidence might have been decreased simultaneously in both

  15. The effect of a comprehensive injury audit program on injury incidence in ballet: a 3-year prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, Nick; Nevill, Alan M; Brooks, John H M; Koutedakis, Yiannis; Wyon, Matthew A

    2013-09-01

    The aim of this study was to determine whether an intervention with individualized conditioning program based on injury history and functional movement screening would be effective in reducing ballet injury incidence. Prospective 3-year epidemiological study. Professional ballet company and its in-house medical facility. Dancers from a professional ballet company over the 3-year study period. Participant numbers ranged from 52 to 58 (year 1: 52; year 2: 58; year 3: 53). The intervention consisted of individual conditioning programs developed using injury history and functional movement screening. Analysis was undertaken of the all dancers who were present in the company during the study period. The significance of change in injuries over a 3-year period was determined using a Poisson distribution model. To determine whether individual conditioning programs resulted in a decrease in injury incidence over the study period. The injury count reduced significantly in years 2 and 3 (P ballet. The implementation of well-structured injury surveillance programs can impact on injury incidence through its influence on intervention programs.

  16. Novel micro-reactor flow cell for investigation of model catalysts using in situ grazing-incidence X-ray scattering

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kehres, Jan; Pedersen, Thomas; Masini, Federico

    2016-01-01

    at synchrotron facilities are performed utilizing the micro-reactor and a designed transportable gas feed and analysis system. The feasibility of simultaneous in situ GISAXS/GIWAXS experiments in the novel micro-reactor flow cell was confirmed with CO oxidation over mass-selected Ru nanoparticles.......The design, fabrication and performance of a novel and highly sensitive micro-reactor device for performing in situ grazing-incidence X-ray scattering experiments of model catalyst systems is presented. The design of the reaction chamber, etched in silicon on insulator (SIO), permits grazing......-incidence small-angle X-ray scattering (GISAXS) in transmission through 10 µm-thick entrance and exit windows by using micro-focused beams. An additional thinning of the Pyrex glass reactor lid allows simultaneous acquisition of the grazing-incidence wide-angle X-ray scattering (GIWAXS). In situ experiments...

  17. Novel micro-reactor flow cell for investigation of model catalysts using in situ grazing-incidence X-ray scattering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kehres, Jan; Pedersen, Thomas; Masini, Federico; Andreasen, Jens Wenzel; Nielsen, Martin Meedom; Diaz, Ana; Nielsen, Jane Hvolbæk; Hansen, Ole

    2016-01-01

    The design, fabrication and performance of a novel and highly sensitive micro-reactor device for performing in situ grazing-incidence X-ray scattering experiments of model catalyst systems is presented. The design of the reaction chamber, etched in silicon on insulator (SIO), permits grazing-incidence small-angle X-ray scattering (GISAXS) in transmission through 10 µm-thick entrance and exit windows by using micro-focused beams. An additional thinning of the Pyrex glass reactor lid allows simultaneous acquisition of the grazing-incidence wide-angle X-ray scattering (GIWAXS). In situ experiments at synchrotron facilities are performed utilizing the micro-reactor and a designed transportable gas feed and analysis system. The feasibility of simultaneous in situ GISAXS/GIWAXS experiments in the novel micro-reactor flow cell was confirmed with CO oxidation over mass-selected Ru nanoparticles. PMID:26917133

  18. Structure, Function, and Applications of the Georgetown-Einstein (GE) Breast Cancer Simulation Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schechter, Clyde B; Near, Aimee M; Jayasekera, Jinani; Chandler, Young; Mandelblatt, Jeanne S

    2018-04-01

    The Georgetown University-Albert Einstein College of Medicine breast cancer simulation model (Model GE) has evolved over time in structure and function to reflect advances in knowledge about breast cancer, improvements in early detection and treatment technology, and progress in computing resources. This article describes the model and provides examples of model applications. The model is a discrete events microsimulation of single-life histories of women from multiple birth cohorts. Events are simulated in the absence of screening and treatment, and interventions are then applied to assess their impact on population breast cancer trends. The model accommodates differences in natural history associated with estrogen receptor (ER) and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) biomarkers, as well as conventional breast cancer risk factors. The approach for simulating breast cancer natural history is phenomenological, relying on dates, stage, and age of clinical and screen detection for a tumor molecular subtype without explicitly modeling tumor growth. The inputs to the model are regularly updated to reflect current practice. Numerous technical modifications, including the use of object-oriented programming (C++), and more efficient algorithms, along with hardware advances, have increased program efficiency permitting simulations of large samples. The model results consistently match key temporal trends in US breast cancer incidence and mortality. The model has been used in collaboration with other CISNET models to assess cancer control policies and will be applied to evaluate clinical trial design, recurrence risk, and polygenic risk-based screening.

  19. Renal function, cardiovascular disease risk factors' prevalence and 5-year disease incidence; the role of diet, exercise, lipids and inflammation markers: the ATTICA study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chrysohoou, C; Panagiotakos, D B; Pitsavos, C; Skoumas, J; Toutouza, M; Papaioannou, I; Stefanadis, C

    2010-06-01

    We aimed to evaluate the association between renal function and various cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors, as well as 5-year incidence of CVD, in a sample of CVD free adults. (i) Cross-sectional information from n = 1975. Greek men and women (>18 years) without CVD and hypertension at baseline examination and (ii) 5-year (2001-06) survival data from n = 2101 individuals without CVD at baseline, all participants in the ATTICA study, were analysed in this work. Kidney function was quantified by the baseline estimated creatinine clearance rate (C(cr)), using the Cockcroft-Gault formula and the National Kidney Foundation recommendations. Outcome of interest was the development of CVD that was defined according to WHO-ICD-10 criteria. At baseline, the prevalence of moderate-to-severe renal dysfunction (i.e. C(cr) smoking, hypercholesterolemia and homocysteine levels and greater adherence to the Mediterranean diet were inversely associated with C(cr) rate (P smoking habits (0.89, 0.60-1.32) and physical activity status (0.86, 0.56-1.21). Renal function seems to be associated with the levels of lifestyle and bio-clinical CVD risk factors and contribute to the long-term incidence of cardiac events. Public health care practitioners should take into account renal function in better preventing the burden of CVD at individual, and population level, as well.

  20. Lung cancer incidence and survival among HIV-infected and uninfected women and men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hessol, Nancy A; Martínez-Maza, Otoniel; Levine, Alexandra M; Morris, Alison; Margolick, Joseph B; Cohen, Mardge H; Jacobson, Lisa P; Seaberg, Eric C

    2015-06-19

    To determine the lung cancer incidence and survival time among HIV-infected and uninfected women and men. Two longitudinal studies of HIV infection in the United States. Data from 2549 women in the Women's Interagency HIV Study (WIHS) and 4274 men in the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study (MACS), all with a history of cigarette smoking, were analyzed. Lung cancer incidence rates and incidence rate ratios were calculated using Poisson regression analyses. Survival time was assessed using Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional-hazard analyses. Thirty-seven women and 23 men developed lung cancer (46 HIV-infected and 14 HIV-uninfected) during study follow-up. In multivariable analyses, the factors that were found to be independently associated with a higher lung cancer incidence rate ratios were older age, less education, 10 or more pack-years of smoking, and a prior diagnosis of AIDS pneumonia (vs. HIV-uninfected women). In an adjusted Cox model that allowed different hazard functions for each cohort, a history of injection drug use was associated with shorter survival, and a lung cancer diagnosis after 2001 was associated with longer survival. In an adjusted Cox model restricted to HIV-infected participants, nadir CD4 lymphocyte cell count less than 200 was associated with shorter survival time. Our data suggest that pulmonary damage and inflammation associated with HIV infection may be causative for the increased risk of lung cancer. Encouraging and assisting younger HIV-infected smokers to quit and to sustain cessation of smoking is imperative to reduce the lung cancer burden in this population.

  1. Development of a model for recording and evaluating incidents in radiotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ribeiro, A.L.C.; Paiva, E. de; Teixeira, F.C.S.

    2017-01-01

    Radiotherapy has been constantly improving to become increasingly effective, thus contributing to increase the chances of healing patients. In this sense, incident learning gained prominence during successive approaches to patient safety. The objective is to develop a tool for recording and analyzing incidents in radiotherapy and applying it to clinics in Rio de Janeiro in order to implement the policy of quality management and safety culture. Steps were taken that involved the analysis of the process maps for the enrichment of the system (called the Standardized System of Incidents in Radiotherapy - SPIRad) that already has a version in physical form. The proposal is the conversion of this form to a digital tool to be used through the intranet. The next step is to apply it to radiotherapy clinics in Rio de Janeiro and evaluate the results obtained with the objective of possible improvements through feedback from users

  2. Incidence and Economic Cost of Bovine Trypanosomosis in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Incidence and economic cost of cases of bovine trypanosomosis in nomadic herds at the Jos Plateau from 1997 to 2001 were determined. These were done using records kept at the Plateau State Ministry of Animal and Forest Resources headquarters at Jos, and the model described by Alonge et al. (1984). The incidence ...

  3. A Memristor Model with Piecewise Window Function

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Yu

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we present a memristor model with piecewise window function, which is continuously differentiable and consists of three nonlinear pieces. By introducing two parameters, the shape of this window function can be flexibly adjusted to model different types of memristors. Using this model, one can easily obtain an expression of memristance depending on charge, from which the numerical value of memristance can be readily calculated for any given charge, and eliminate the error occurring in the simulation of some existing window function models.

  4. Numerical model of the influence function of deformable mirrors based on Bessel Fourier orthogonal functions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Shun; Zhang Sijiong

    2014-01-01

    A numerical model is presented to simulate the influence function of deformable mirror actuators. The numerical model is formed by Bessel Fourier orthogonal functions, which are constituted of Bessel orthogonal functions and a Fourier basis. A detailed comparison is presented between the new Bessel Fourier model, the Zernike model, the Gaussian influence function and the modified Gaussian influence function. Numerical experiments indicate that the new numerical model is easy to use and more accurate compared with other numerical models. The new numerical model can be used for describing deformable mirror performances and numerical simulations of adaptive optics systems. (research papers)

  5. Targeting safety improvements through identification of incident origination and detection in a near-miss incident learning system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Novak, Avrey; Nyflot, Matthew J.; Ermoian, Ralph P.; Jordan, Loucille E.; Sponseller, Patricia A.; Kane, Gabrielle M.; Ford, Eric C.; Zeng, Jing

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: Radiation treatment planning involves a complex workflow that has multiple potential points of vulnerability. This study utilizes an incident reporting system to identify the origination and detection points of near-miss errors, in order to guide their departmental safety improvement efforts. Previous studies have examined where errors arise, but not where they are detected or applied a near-miss risk index (NMRI) to gauge severity. Methods: From 3/2012 to 3/2014, 1897 incidents were analyzed from a departmental incident learning system. All incidents were prospectively reviewed weekly by a multidisciplinary team and assigned a NMRI score ranging from 0 to 4 reflecting potential harm to the patient (no potential harm to potential critical harm). Incidents were classified by point of incident origination and detection based on a 103-step workflow. The individual steps were divided among nine broad workflow categories (patient assessment, imaging for radiation therapy (RT) planning, treatment planning, pretreatment plan review, treatment delivery, on-treatment quality management, post-treatment completion, equipment/software quality management, and other). The average NMRI scores of incidents originating or detected within each broad workflow area were calculated. Additionally, out of 103 individual process steps, 35 were classified as safety barriers, the process steps whose primary function is to catch errors. The safety barriers which most frequently detected incidents were identified and analyzed. Finally, the distance between event origination and detection was explored by grouping events by the number of broad workflow area events passed through before detection, and average NMRI scores were compared. Results: Near-miss incidents most commonly originated within treatment planning (33%). However, the incidents with the highest average NMRI scores originated during imaging for RT planning (NMRI = 2.0, average NMRI of all events = 1.5), specifically

  6. Targeting safety improvements through identification of incident origination and detection in a near-miss incident learning system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Novak, Avrey; Nyflot, Matthew J.; Ermoian, Ralph P.; Jordan, Loucille E.; Sponseller, Patricia A.; Kane, Gabrielle M.; Ford, Eric C.; Zeng, Jing, E-mail: jzeng13@uw.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Washington Medical Center, 1959 NE Pacific Street, Campus Box 356043, Seattle, Washington 98195 (United States)

    2016-05-15

    Purpose: Radiation treatment planning involves a complex workflow that has multiple potential points of vulnerability. This study utilizes an incident reporting system to identify the origination and detection points of near-miss errors, in order to guide their departmental safety improvement efforts. Previous studies have examined where errors arise, but not where they are detected or applied a near-miss risk index (NMRI) to gauge severity. Methods: From 3/2012 to 3/2014, 1897 incidents were analyzed from a departmental incident learning system. All incidents were prospectively reviewed weekly by a multidisciplinary team and assigned a NMRI score ranging from 0 to 4 reflecting potential harm to the patient (no potential harm to potential critical harm). Incidents were classified by point of incident origination and detection based on a 103-step workflow. The individual steps were divided among nine broad workflow categories (patient assessment, imaging for radiation therapy (RT) planning, treatment planning, pretreatment plan review, treatment delivery, on-treatment quality management, post-treatment completion, equipment/software quality management, and other). The average NMRI scores of incidents originating or detected within each broad workflow area were calculated. Additionally, out of 103 individual process steps, 35 were classified as safety barriers, the process steps whose primary function is to catch errors. The safety barriers which most frequently detected incidents were identified and analyzed. Finally, the distance between event origination and detection was explored by grouping events by the number of broad workflow area events passed through before detection, and average NMRI scores were compared. Results: Near-miss incidents most commonly originated within treatment planning (33%). However, the incidents with the highest average NMRI scores originated during imaging for RT planning (NMRI = 2.0, average NMRI of all events = 1.5), specifically

  7. Assessment of tropospheric delay mapping function models in Egypt: Using PTD database model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdelfatah, M. A.; Mousa, Ashraf E.; El-Fiky, Gamal S.

    2018-06-01

    For space geodetic measurements, estimates of tropospheric delays are highly correlated with site coordinates and receiver clock biases. Thus, it is important to use the most accurate models for the tropospheric delay to reduce errors in the estimates of the other parameters. Both the zenith delay value and mapping function should be assigned correctly to reduce such errors. Several mapping function models can treat the troposphere slant delay. The recent models were not evaluated for the Egyptian local climate conditions. An assessment of these models is needed to choose the most suitable one. The goal of this paper is to test the quality of global mapping function which provides high consistency with precise troposphere delay (PTD) mapping functions. The PTD model is derived from radiosonde data using ray tracing, which consider in this paper as true value. The PTD mapping functions were compared, with three recent total mapping functions model and another three separate dry and wet mapping function model. The results of the research indicate that models are very close up to zenith angle 80°. Saastamoinen and 1/cos z model are behind accuracy. Niell model is better than VMF model. The model of Black and Eisner is a good model. The results also indicate that the geometric range error has insignificant effect on slant delay and the fluctuation of azimuth anti-symmetric is about 1%.

  8. Factors affecting fire suppression costs as identified by incident management teams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janie Canton-Thompson; Brooke Thompson; Krista Gebert; David Calkin; Geoff Donovan; Greg Jones

    2006-01-01

    This study uses qualitative sociological methodology to discover information and insights about the role of Incident Management Teams in wildland fire suppression costs. We interviewed 48 command and general staff members of Incident Management Teams throughout the United States. Interviewees were asked about team structure, functioning, and decision making as a...

  9. The 5-year incidence of bleb-related infection and its risk factors after filtering surgeries with adjunctive mitomycin C: collaborative bleb-related infection incidence and treatment study 2.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamamoto, Tetsuya; Sawada, Akira; Mayama, Chihiro; Araie, Makoto; Ohkubo, Shinji; Sugiyama, Kazuhisa; Kuwayama, Yasuaki

    2014-05-01

    To report the 5-year incidence of bleb-related infection after mitomycin C-augmented glaucoma filtering surgery and to investigate the risk factors for infections. Prospective, observational cohort study. A total of 1098 eyes of 1098 glaucoma patients who had undergone mitomycin C-augmented trabeculectomy or trabeculectomy combined with phacoemulsification and intraocular lens implantation performed at 34 clinical centers. Patients were followed up at 6-month intervals for 5 years, with special attention given to bleb-related infections. The follow-up data were analyzed via Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and the Cox proportional hazards model. Incidence of bleb-related infection over 5 years and risk factors for infections. Of the 1098 eyes, a bleb-related infection developed in 21 eyes. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis revealed that the incidence of bleb-related infection was 2.2±0.5% (cumulative incidence ± standard error) at the 5-year follow-up for all cases, whereas it was 7.9±3.1% and 1.7±0.4% for cases with and without a history of bleb leakage, respectively (P = 0.000, log-rank test). When only eyes with a well-functioning bleb were counted, it was 3.9±1.0%. No differences were found between the trabeculectomy cases and the combined surgery cases (P = 0.398, log-rank test) or between cases with a fornix-based flap and those with a limbal-based flap (P = 0.651, log-rank test). The Cox model revealed that a history of bleb leakage and younger age were risk factors for infections. The 5-year cumulative incidence of bleb-related infection was 2.2±0.5% in eyes treated with mitomycin C-augmented trabeculectomy or trabeculectomy combined with phacoemulsification and intraocular lens implantation in our prospective, multicenter study. Bleb leakage and younger age were the main risk factors for infections. Copyright © 2014 American Academy of Ophthalmology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. X-ray grazing incidence diffraction from multilayers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tixier, S.; Boeni, P.; Swygenhoven, H. van; Horisberger, M. [Paul Scherrer Inst. (PSI), Villigen (Switzerland)

    1997-09-01

    Grazing incidence scattering geometries using synchrotron radiation have been applied in order to characterise the roughness profiles and the structural coherence of multilayers. The lateral correlation length of the roughness profiles was evaluated using diffuse reflectivity in the `out of plane` geometry. This type of measurement is the only diffuse reflectivity technique allowing large lateral momentum transfer. It is typically suitable for correlation lengths smaller than 1000 A. The lateral structural coherence length of Ni{sub 3}Al/Ni multilayers as a function of the layer thickness was obtained by grazing incidence diffraction (GID). 3 figs., 1 ref.

  11. Diet-Induced Obesity Is Associated with an Impaired NK Cell Function and an Increased Colon Cancer Incidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ina Bähr

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Obesity is associated with an increased colon cancer incidence, but underlying mechanisms remained unclear. Previous studies showed altered Natural killer (NK cell functions in obese individuals. Therefore, we studied the impact of an impaired NK cell functionality on the increased colon cancer risk in obesity. In vitro investigations demonstrated a decreased IFN-γ secretion and cytotoxicity of human NK cells against colon tumor cells after NK cell preincubation with the adipokine leptin. In addition, leptin incubation decreased the expression of activating NK cell receptors. In animal studies, colon cancer growth was induced by injection of azoxymethane (AOM in normal weight and diet-induced obese rats. Body weight and visceral fat mass were increased in obese animals compared to normal weight rats. AOM-treated obese rats showed an increased quantity, size, and weight of colon tumors compared to the normal weight tumor group. Immunohistochemical analyses demonstrated a decreased number of NK cells in spleen and liver in obesity. Additionally, the expression levels of activating NK cell receptors were lower in spleen and liver of obese rats. The results show for the first time that the decreased number and impaired NK cell function may be one cause for the higher colon cancer risk in obesity.

  12. Nonperturbative Series Expansion of Green's Functions: The Anatomy of Resonant Inelastic X-Ray Scattering in the Doped Hubbard Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Yi; Haverkort, Maurits W.

    2017-12-01

    We present a nonperturbative, divergence-free series expansion of Green's functions using effective operators. The method is especially suited for computing correlators of complex operators as a series of correlation functions of simpler forms. We apply the method to study low-energy excitations in resonant inelastic x-ray scattering (RIXS) in doped one- and two-dimensional single-band Hubbard models. The RIXS operator is expanded into polynomials of spin, density, and current operators weighted by fundamental x-ray spectral functions. These operators couple to different polarization channels resulting in simple selection rules. The incident photon energy dependent coefficients help to pinpoint main RIXS contributions from different degrees of freedom. We show in particular that, with parameters pertaining to cuprate superconductors, local spin excitation dominates the RIXS spectral weight over a wide doping range in the cross-polarization channel.

  13. Epidemiology of road traffic incidents in Peru 1973-2008: incidence, mortality, and fatality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miranda, J Jaime; López-Rivera, Luis A; Quistberg, D Alex; Rosales-Mayor, Edmundo; Gianella, Camila; Paca-Palao, Ada; Luna, Diego; Huicho, Luis; Paca, Ada

    2014-01-01

    The epidemiological profile and trends of road traffic injuries (RTIs) in Peru have not been well-defined, though this is a necessary step to address this significant public health problem in Peru. The objective of this study was to determine trends of incidence, mortality, and fatality of RTIs in Peru during 1973-2008, as well as their relationship to population trends such as economic growth. Secondary aggregated databases were used to estimate incidence, mortality and fatality rate ratios (IRRs) of RTIs. These estimates were standardized to age groups and sex of the 2008 Peruvian population. Negative binomial regression and cubic spline curves were used for multivariable analysis. During the 35-year period there were 952,668 road traffic victims, injured or killed. The adjusted yearly incidence of RTIs increased by 3.59 (95% CI 2.43-5.31) on average. We did not observe any significant trends in the yearly mortality rate. The total adjusted yearly fatality rate decreased by 0.26 (95% CI 0.15-0.43), while among adults the fatality rate increased by 1.25 (95% CI 1.09-1.43). Models fitted with splines suggest that the incidence follows a bimodal curve and closely followed trends in the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. The significant increasing incidence of RTIs in Peru affirms their growing threat to public health. A substantial improvement of information systems for RTIs is needed to create a more accurate epidemiologic profile of RTIs in Peru. This approach can be of use in other similar low and middle-income settings to inform about the local challenges posed by RTIs.

  14. Epidemiology of road traffic incidents in Peru 1973-2008: incidence, mortality, and fatality.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J Jaime Miranda

    Full Text Available The epidemiological profile and trends of road traffic injuries (RTIs in Peru have not been well-defined, though this is a necessary step to address this significant public health problem in Peru. The objective of this study was to determine trends of incidence, mortality, and fatality of RTIs in Peru during 1973-2008, as well as their relationship to population trends such as economic growth.Secondary aggregated databases were used to estimate incidence, mortality and fatality rate ratios (IRRs of RTIs. These estimates were standardized to age groups and sex of the 2008 Peruvian population. Negative binomial regression and cubic spline curves were used for multivariable analysis. During the 35-year period there were 952,668 road traffic victims, injured or killed. The adjusted yearly incidence of RTIs increased by 3.59 (95% CI 2.43-5.31 on average. We did not observe any significant trends in the yearly mortality rate. The total adjusted yearly fatality rate decreased by 0.26 (95% CI 0.15-0.43, while among adults the fatality rate increased by 1.25 (95% CI 1.09-1.43. Models fitted with splines suggest that the incidence follows a bimodal curve and closely followed trends in the gross domestic product (GDP per capita.The significant increasing incidence of RTIs in Peru affirms their growing threat to public health. A substantial improvement of information systems for RTIs is needed to create a more accurate epidemiologic profile of RTIs in Peru. This approach can be of use in other similar low and middle-income settings to inform about the local challenges posed by RTIs.

  15. Grazing Incidence X-ray Scattering and Diffraction

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    IAS Admin

    several materials as a function of angle of incidence, αi with X-rays of wavelength ..... are several advantages of using this formulation for the description of surface ..... print of the surface (as shown at the botton of Figure. 5). A Soller collimator ...

  16. Global Inequalities in Cervical Cancer Incidence and Mortality are Linked to Deprivation, Low Socioeconomic Status, and Human Development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Gopal K; Azuine, Romuladus E; Siahpush, Mohammad

    2012-01-01

    This study examined global inequalities in cervical cancer incidence and mortality rates as a function of cross-national variations in the Human Development Index (HDI), socioeconomic factors, Gender Inequality Index (GII), and healthcare expenditure. Age-adjusted incidence and mortality rates were calculated for women in 184 countries using the 2008 GLOBOCAN database, and incidence and mortality trends were analyzed using the WHO cancer mortality database. Log-linear regression was used to model annual trends, while OLS and Poisson regression models were used to estimate the impact of socioeconomic and human development factors on incidence and mortality rates. Cervical cancer incidence and mortality rates varied widely, with many African countries such as Guinea, Zambia, Comoros, Tanzania, and Malawi having at least 10-to-20-fold higher rates than several West Asian, Middle East, and European countries, including Iran, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Egypt, and Switzerland. HDI, GII, poverty rate, health expenditure per capita, urbanization, and literacy rate were all significantly related to cervical cancer incidence and mortality, with HDI and poverty rate each explaining >52% of the global variance in mortality. Both incidence and mortality rates increased in relation to lower human development and higher gender inequality levels. A 0.2 unit increase in HDI was associated with a 20% decrease in cervical cancer risk and a 33% decrease in cervical cancer mortality risk. The risk of a cervical cancer diagnosis increased by 24% and of cervical cancer death by 42% for a 0.2 unit increase in GII. Higher health expenditure levels were independently associated with decreased incidence and mortality risks. Global inequalities in cervical cancer are clearly linked to disparities in human development, social inequality, and living standards. Reductions in cervical cancer rates are achievable by reducing inequalities in socioeconomic conditions, availability of preventive health

  17. The equivalent incidence angle for porous absorbers backed by a hard surface

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jeong, Cheol-Ho; Brunskog, Jonas

    2013-01-01

    experiment using a free-field absorption measurement technique with a source at the equivalent angle. This study investigates the equivalent angle for locally and extendedly reacting porous media mainly by a numerical approach: Numerical minimizations of a cost function that is the difference between...... coefficients by free-field techniques, a broad incidence angle range can be suggested: 20 hi65 for extended reaction and hi65 for locally reacting porous absorbers, if an average difference of 0.05 is allowed.......An equivalent incidence angle is defined as the incidence angle at which the oblique incidence absorption coefficient best approximates the random incidence absorption coefficient. Once the equivalent angle is known, the random incidence absorption coefficient can be estimated by a single...

  18. Subjective Memory Complaints are Associated with Incident Dementia in Cognitively Intact Older People, but Not in Those with Cognitive Impairment: A 24-Month Prospective Cohort Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsutsumimoto, Kota; Makizako, Hyuma; Doi, Takehiko; Hotta, Ryo; Nakakubo, Sho; Makino, Keitaro; Shimada, Hiroyuki; Suzuki, Takao

    2017-06-01

    Although subjective memory complaints (SMCs) are considered a risk factor for incident dementia in older people, the effect might differ based on cognitive function. The aim of the present study was to investigate whether the effect of SMCs on the incidence of dementia in older people differed based on cognitive function. A 24-month follow-up cohort study. Japanese community. Prospective, longitudinal data for incident dementia were collected for 3,672 participants (mean age: 71.7 years; 46.5% men) for up to 24 months. Baseline measurements included covariates for incident dementia, SMCs, and cognitive function. Associations between SMCs, cognitive impairment, and incident dementia were examined using Cox proportional hazards models. Incidences of dementia in the cognitively intact without SMC, cognitively intact with SMC, cognitive impairment without SMC, and cognitive impairment with SMC groups were 0.3%, 1.8%, 3.4%, and 4.8%, respectively. In the cognitively intact participants, SMCs were associated with a significantly higher risk of dementia (hazard ratio [HR]: 4.95, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.52-16.11, p = 0.008). Incident dementia with cognitive impairment was not significantly different based on SMC presence (p = 0.527). Participants with cognitive impairment in multiple domains had a significantly higher risk of incident dementia (HR: 2.07, 95% CI: 1.01-4.24, p = 0.046) CONCLUSION: SMCs were related with dementia in cognitively intact older people, but not in those with cognitive impairment.Multiple domains of cognitive impairment were associated with a higher risk of incident dementia. Copyright © 2017 American Association for Geriatric Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Substitution Models of Water for Other Beverages, and the Incidence of Obesity and Weight Gain in the SUN Cohort

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ujué Fresán

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Obesity is a major epidemic for developed countries in the 21st century. The main cause of obesity is energy imbalance, of which contributing factors include a sedentary lifestyle, epigenetic factors and excessive caloric intake through food and beverages. A high consumption of caloric beverages, such as alcoholic or sweetened drinks, may particularly contribute to weight gain, and lower satiety has been associated with the intake of liquid instead of solid calories. Our objective was to evaluate the association between the substitution of a serving per day of water for another beverage (or group of them and the incidence of obesity and weight change in a Mediterranean cohort, using mathematical models. We followed 15,765 adults without obesity at baseline. The intake of 17 beverage items was assessed at baseline through a validated food-frequency questionnaire. The outcomes were average change in body weight in a four-year period and new-onset obesity and their association with the substitution of one serving per day of water for one of the other beverages. During the follow-up, 873 incident cases of obesity were identified. In substitution models, the consumption of water instead of beer or sugar-sweetened soda beverages was associated with a lower obesity incidence (the Odds Ratio (OR 0.80 (95% confidence interval (CI 0.68 to 0.94 and OR 0.85 (95% CI 0.75 to 0.97; respectively and, in the case of beer, it was also associated with a higher average weight loss (weight change difference = −328 g; (95% CI −566 to −89. Thus, this study found that replacing one sugar-sweetened soda beverage or beer with one serving of water per day at baseline was related to a lower incidence of obesity and to a higher weight loss over a four-year period time in the case of beer, based on mathematical models.

  20. STRATEG - an incident training system for thermohydraulic effects and principles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rehn, H.; Majohr, N.

    1993-01-01

    STRATEG is a 1:10 scale glass model of a PWR (Biblis B reactor coolant circuit) built by RWE in 1986 on the site of the Biblis plant as a training model. The model can be used for training of normal operation and incident situations since all important operating and incident sequences of a PWR can be simulated. Thermodynamic phenomena can also be demonstrated occurring under various operating situations and in particular associated with malfunctions. (Z.S.) 1 tab., 3 figs., 1 ref

  1. Maximum entropy models of ecosystem functioning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bertram, Jason

    2014-01-01

    Using organism-level traits to deduce community-level relationships is a fundamental problem in theoretical ecology. This problem parallels the physical one of using particle properties to deduce macroscopic thermodynamic laws, which was successfully achieved with the development of statistical physics. Drawing on this parallel, theoretical ecologists from Lotka onwards have attempted to construct statistical mechanistic theories of ecosystem functioning. Jaynes’ broader interpretation of statistical mechanics, which hinges on the entropy maximisation algorithm (MaxEnt), is of central importance here because the classical foundations of statistical physics do not have clear ecological analogues (e.g. phase space, dynamical invariants). However, models based on the information theoretic interpretation of MaxEnt are difficult to interpret ecologically. Here I give a broad discussion of statistical mechanical models of ecosystem functioning and the application of MaxEnt in these models. Emphasising the sample frequency interpretation of MaxEnt, I show that MaxEnt can be used to construct models of ecosystem functioning which are statistical mechanical in the traditional sense using a savanna plant ecology model as an example

  2. Maximum entropy models of ecosystem functioning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bertram, Jason, E-mail: jason.bertram@anu.edu.au [Research School of Biology, The Australian National University, Canberra ACT 0200 (Australia)

    2014-12-05

    Using organism-level traits to deduce community-level relationships is a fundamental problem in theoretical ecology. This problem parallels the physical one of using particle properties to deduce macroscopic thermodynamic laws, which was successfully achieved with the development of statistical physics. Drawing on this parallel, theoretical ecologists from Lotka onwards have attempted to construct statistical mechanistic theories of ecosystem functioning. Jaynes’ broader interpretation of statistical mechanics, which hinges on the entropy maximisation algorithm (MaxEnt), is of central importance here because the classical foundations of statistical physics do not have clear ecological analogues (e.g. phase space, dynamical invariants). However, models based on the information theoretic interpretation of MaxEnt are difficult to interpret ecologically. Here I give a broad discussion of statistical mechanical models of ecosystem functioning and the application of MaxEnt in these models. Emphasising the sample frequency interpretation of MaxEnt, I show that MaxEnt can be used to construct models of ecosystem functioning which are statistical mechanical in the traditional sense using a savanna plant ecology model as an example.

  3. Prediction of Chemical Function: Model Development and ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    The United States Environmental Protection Agency’s Exposure Forecaster (ExpoCast) project is developing both statistical and mechanism-based computational models for predicting exposures to thousands of chemicals, including those in consumer products. The high-throughput (HT) screening-level exposures developed under ExpoCast can be combined with HT screening (HTS) bioactivity data for the risk-based prioritization of chemicals for further evaluation. The functional role (e.g. solvent, plasticizer, fragrance) that a chemical performs can drive both the types of products in which it is found and the concentration in which it is present and therefore impacting exposure potential. However, critical chemical use information (including functional role) is lacking for the majority of commercial chemicals for which exposure estimates are needed. A suite of machine-learning based models for classifying chemicals in terms of their likely functional roles in products based on structure were developed. This effort required collection, curation, and harmonization of publically-available data sources of chemical functional use information from government and industry bodies. Physicochemical and structure descriptor data were generated for chemicals with function data. Machine-learning classifier models for function were then built in a cross-validated manner from the descriptor/function data using the method of random forests. The models were applied to: 1) predict chemi

  4. Functioning with a Sticky Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reys, Robert E.

    1981-01-01

    A model that can be effectively used to develop the notion of function and provide varied practice by using "real world" examples and concrete objects is covered. The use of Popsicle-sticks is featured, with some suggestions for tasks involving functions with one operation, two operations, and inverse operations covered. (MP)

  5. Theoretical model application to the evaluation of fission neutron data up to 20 MeV incidence energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruben, A.; Maerten, H.; Seeliger, D.

    1990-01-01

    A complex statistical theory of fission neutron emission combined with a phenomenological fission model has been used to calculate fission neutron data for 238 U. Obtained neutron multiplicities and energy spectra as well as average fragment energies for incidence energies from threshold to 20 MeV (including multiple-chance fission) are compared with traditional data representations. (author). 19 refs, 6 figs

  6. Dispositional Optimism and Incidence of Cognitive Impairment in Older Adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gawronski, Katerina A B; Kim, Eric S; Langa, Kenneth M; Kubzansky, Laura D

    2016-09-01

    Higher levels of optimism have been linked with positive health behaviors, biological processes, and health conditions that are potentially protective against cognitive impairment in older adults. However, the association between optimism and cognitive impairment has not been directly investigated. We examined whether optimism is associated with incident cognitive impairment in older adults. Data are from the Health and Retirement Study. Optimism was measured by using the Life Orientation Test-R and cognitive impairment with a modified version of the Telephone Interview for Cognitive Status derived from the Mini-Mental State Examination. Using multiple logistic regression models, we prospectively assessed whether optimism was associated with incident cognitive impairment in 4624 adults 65 years and older during a 4-year period. Among participants, 312 women and 190 men developed cognitive impairment during the 4-year follow-up. Higher optimism was associated with decreased risk of incident cognitive impairment. When adjusted for sociodemographic factors, each standard deviation increase in optimism was associated with reduced odds (odds ratio [OR] = 0.70, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.61-0.81) of becoming cognitively impaired. A dose-response relationship was observed. Compared with those with the lowest levels of optimism, people with moderate levels had somewhat reduced odds of cognitive impairment (OR = 0.78, 95% CI = 0.59-1.03), whereas people with the highest levels had the lowest odds of cognitive impairment (OR = 0.52, 95% CI = 0.36-0.74). These associations remained after adjusting for health behaviors, biological factors, and psychological covariates that could either confound the association of interest or serve on the pathway. Optimism was prospectively associated with a reduced likelihood of becoming cognitively impaired. If these results are replicated, the data suggest that potentially modifiable aspects of positive psychological functioning such

  7. Functional Modeling of Neural-Glia Interaction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Postnov, D.E.; Brazhe, N.A.; Sosnovtseva, Olga

    2012-01-01

    Functional modeling is an approach that focuses on the representation of the qualitative dynamics of the individual components (e.g. cells) of a system and on the structure of the interaction network.......Functional modeling is an approach that focuses on the representation of the qualitative dynamics of the individual components (e.g. cells) of a system and on the structure of the interaction network....

  8. Overview and Evaluation of a Smoke Modeling System and other Tools used during Wildfire Incident Deployments

    Science.gov (United States)

    ONeill, S. M.; Larkin, N. K.; Martinez, M.; Rorig, M.; Solomon, R. C.; Dubowy, J.; Lahm, P. W.

    2017-12-01

    Specialists operationally deployed to wildfires to forecast expected smoke conditions for the public use many tools and information. These Air Resource Advisors (ARAs) are deployed as part of the Wildland Fire Air Quality Response Program (WFAQRP) and rely on smoke models, monitoring data, meteorological information, and satellite information to produce daily Smoke Outlooks for a region impacted by smoke from wildfires. These Smoke Outlooks are distributed to air quality and health agencies, published online via smoke blogs and other social media, and distributed by the Incident Public Information Officer (PIO), and ultimately to the public. Fundamental to these operations are smoke modeling systems such as the BlueSky Smoke Modeling Framework, which combines fire activity information, mapped fuel loadings, consumption and emissions models, and air quality/dispersion models such as HYSPLIT to produce predictions of PM2.5 concentrations downwind of wildland fires. Performance of this system at a variety of meteorological resolutions, fire initialization information, and vertical allocation of emissions is evaluated for the Summer of 2015 when over 400,000 hectares burned in the northwestern US state of Washington and 1-hr average fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations exceeded 700 μg/m3. The performance of the system at the 12-km, 4-km, and 1.33-km resolutions is evaluated using 1-hr average PM2.5 measurements from permanent monitors and temporary monitors deployed specifically for wildfires by ARAs on wildfire incident command teams. At the higher meteorological resolution (1.33-km) the terrain features are more detailed, showing better valley structures and in general, PM2.5 concentrations were greater in the valleys with the 1.33-km meteorological domain than with the 4-km domain.

  9. Age-period-cohort modelling of breast cancer incidence in the Nordic countries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rostgaard, K; Vaeth, M; Holst, H

    2001-01-01

    into account. Assuming the age dependency of the incidence pattern in old age to be common for the Nordic countries, an internal comparison could be made among the four countries of the cohort effects and the period effects. The study indicated that the period effects have been of importance for the increase...... in breast cancer incidence seen in the Nordic countries. The widespread practice of neglecting the period effects in age-period-cohort analysis of time trends in breast cancer incidence therefore probably needs reconsideration. A key finding was that Danish women born in the 20th century seem to have been...... exposed to an increasing load of cohort borne breast cancer risk factors not experienced to the same extent by Norwegian women, whereas they were seemingly subjected to the same period effects....

  10. Kaon fragmentation function from NJL-jet model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matevosyan, Hrayr H.; Thomas, Anthony W.; Bentz, Wolfgang

    2010-01-01

    The NJL-jet model provides a sound framework for calculating the fragmentation functions in an effective chiral quark theory, where the momentum and isospin sum rules are satisfied without the introduction of ad hoc parameters [1]. Earlier studies of the pion fragmentation functions using the Nambu-Jona-Lasinio (NJL) model within this framework showed good qualitative agreement with the empirical parameterizations. Here we extend the NJL-jet model by including the strange quark. The corrections to the pion fragmentation function and corresponding kaon fragmentation functions are calculated using the elementary quark to quark-meson fragmentation functions from NJL. The results for the kaon fragmentation function exhibit a qualitative agreement with the empirical parameterizations, while the unfavored strange quark fragmentation to pions is shown to be of the same order of magnitude as the unfavored light quark's. The results of these studies are expected to provide important guidance for the analysis of a large variety of semi-inclusive data.

  11. Elevated Incidence of Dental Caries in a Mouse Model of Cystic Fibrosis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Catalán, Marcelo A.; Scott-Anne, Kathleen; Klein, Marlise I.; Koo, Hyun; Bowen, William H.; Melvin, James E.

    2011-01-01

    Background Dental caries is the single most prevalent and costly infectious disease worldwide, affecting more than 90% of the population in the U.S. The development of dental cavities requires the colonization of the tooth surface by acid-producing bacteria, such as Streptococcus mutans. Saliva bicarbonate constitutes the main buffering system which neutralizes the pH fall generated by the plaque bacteria during sugar metabolism. We found that the saliva pH is severely decreased in a mouse model of cystic fibrosis disease (CF). Given the close relationship between pH and caries development, we hypothesized that caries incidence might be elevated in the mouse CF model. Methodology/Principal Findings We induced carious lesions in CF and wildtype mice by infecting their oral cavity with S. mutans, a well-studied cariogenic bacterium. After infection, the mice were fed a high-sucrose diet for 5 weeks (diet 2000). The mice were then euthanized and their jaws removed for caries scoring and bacterial counting. A dramatic increase in caries and severity of lesions scores were apparent in CF mice compared to their wildtype littermates. The elevated incidence of carious lesions correlated with a striking increase in the S. mutans viable population in dental plaque (20-fold increase in CF vs. wildtype mice; p value<0.003; t test). We also found that the pilocarpine-stimulated saliva bicarbonate concentration was significantly reduced in CF mice (16±2 mM vs. 31±2 mM, CF and wildtype mice, respectively; p value<0.01; t test). Conclusions/Significance Considering that bicarbonate is the most important pH buffering system in saliva, and the adherence and survival of aciduric bacteria such as S. mutans are enhanced at low pH values, we speculate that the decrease in the bicarbonate content and pH buffering of the saliva is at least partially responsible for the increased severity of lesions observed in the CF mouse. PMID:21304986

  12. Elevated incidence of dental caries in a mouse model of cystic fibrosis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcelo A Catalán

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Dental caries is the single most prevalent and costly infectious disease worldwide, affecting more than 90% of the population in the U.S. The development of dental cavities requires the colonization of the tooth surface by acid-producing bacteria, such as Streptococcus mutans. Saliva bicarbonate constitutes the main buffering system which neutralizes the pH fall generated by the plaque bacteria during sugar metabolism. We found that the saliva pH is severely decreased in a mouse model of cystic fibrosis disease (CF. Given the close relationship between pH and caries development, we hypothesized that caries incidence might be elevated in the mouse CF model.We induced carious lesions in CF and wildtype mice by infecting their oral cavity with S. mutans, a well-studied cariogenic bacterium. After infection, the mice were fed a high-sucrose diet for 5 weeks (diet 2000. The mice were then euthanized and their jaws removed for caries scoring and bacterial counting. A dramatic increase in caries and severity of lesions scores were apparent in CF mice compared to their wildtype littermates. The elevated incidence of carious lesions correlated with a striking increase in the S. mutans viable population in dental plaque (20-fold increase in CF vs. wildtype mice; p value < 0.003; t test. We also found that the pilocarpine-stimulated saliva bicarbonate concentration was significantly reduced in CF mice (16 ± 2 mM vs. 31 ± 2 mM, CF and wildtype mice, respectively; p value < 0.01; t test.Considering that bicarbonate is the most important pH buffering system in saliva, and the adherence and survival of aciduric bacteria such as S. mutans are enhanced at low pH values, we speculate that the decrease in the bicarbonate content and pH buffering of the saliva is at least partially responsible for the increased severity of lesions observed in the CF mouse.

  13. Functional summary statistics for the Johnson-Mehl model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Jesper; Ghorbani, Mohammad

    The Johnson-Mehl germination-growth model is a spatio-temporal point process model which among other things have been used for the description of neurotransmitters datasets. However, for such datasets parametric Johnson-Mehl models fitted by maximum likelihood have yet not been evaluated by means...... of functional summary statistics. This paper therefore invents four functional summary statistics adapted to the Johnson-Mehl model, with two of them based on the second-order properties and the other two on the nuclei-boundary distances for the associated Johnson-Mehl tessellation. The functional summary...... statistics theoretical properties are investigated, non-parametric estimators are suggested, and their usefulness for model checking is examined in a simulation study. The functional summary statistics are also used for checking fitted parametric Johnson-Mehl models for a neurotransmitters dataset....

  14. Continuum modeling of ion-beam eroded surfaces under normal incidence: Impact of stochastic fluctuations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dreimann, Karsten; Linz, Stefan J.

    2010-01-01

    Graphical abstract: Deterministic surface pattern (left) and its stochastic counterpart (right) arising in a stochastic damped Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation that serves as a model equation for ion-beam eroded surfaces and is systematically investigated. - Abstract: Using a recently proposed field equation for the surface evolution of ion-beam eroded semiconductor target materials under normal incidence, we systematically explore the impact of additive stochastic fluctuations that are permanently present during the erosion process. Specifically, we investigate the dependence of the surface roughness, the underlying pattern forming properties and the bifurcation behavior on the strength of the fluctuations.

  15. Effect of Brazil's conditional cash transfer programme on tuberculosis incidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nery, J S; Rodrigues, L C; Rasella, D; Aquino, R; Barreira, D; Torrens, A W; Boccia, D; Penna, G O; Penna, M L F; Barreto, M L; Pereira, S M

    2017-07-01

    To evaluate the impact of the Brazilian cash transfer programme (Bolsa Família Programme, BFP) on tuberculosis (TB) incidence in Brazil from 2004 to 2012. We studied tuberculosis surveillance data using a combination of an ecological multiple-group and time-trend design covering 2458 Brazilian municipalities. The main independent variable was BFP coverage and the outcome was the TB incidence rate. All study variables were obtained from national databases. We used fixed-effects negative binomial models for panel data adjusted for selected covariates and a variable representing time. After controlling for covariates, TB incidence rates were significantly reduced in municipalities with high BFP coverage compared with those with low and intermediate coverage (in a model with a time variable incidence rate ratio = 0.96, 95%CI 0.93-0.99). This was the first evidence of a statistically significant association between the increase in cash transfer programme coverage and a reduction in TB incidence rate. Our findings provide support for social protection interventions for tackling TB worldwide.

  16. Prediction of sound transmission loss through multilayered panels by using Gaussian distribution of directional incident energy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang; Ih; Kim; Kim

    2000-03-01

    In this study, a new prediction method is suggested for sound transmission loss (STL) of multilayered panels of infinite extent. Conventional methods such as random or field incidence approach often given significant discrepancies in predicting STL of multilayered panels when compared with the experiments. In this paper, appropriate directional distributions of incident energy to predict the STL of multilayered panels are proposed. In order to find a weighting function to represent the directional distribution of incident energy on the wall in a reverberation chamber, numerical simulations by using a ray-tracing technique are carried out. Simulation results reveal that the directional distribution can be approximately expressed by the Gaussian distribution function in terms of the angle of incidence. The Gaussian function is applied to predict the STL of various multilayered panel configurations as well as single panels. The compared results between the measurement and the prediction show good agreements, which validate the proposed Gaussian function approach.

  17. Model calculations of excitation functions of neutron-induced reactions on Rh

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strohmaier, Brigitte

    1995-01-01

    Cross sections of neutron-induced reactions on 103 Rh have been calculated by means of the statistical model and the coupled-channels optical model for incident-neutron energies up to 30 MeV. The incentive for this study was a new measurement of the 103 Rh(n, n') 103m Rh cross section which will - together with the present calculations -enter into a dosimetry-reaction evaluation. The validation of the model parameters relied on nuclear-structure data as far as possible. (author)

  18. Integrating incident investigation into the management system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peterson, E.E.

    1992-01-01

    In the last 10 yr, the size and frequency of incidents affecting the communities and environment surrounding chemical processing facilities has increased. The chemical process industry, which has always concerned itself with the safety of its facilities, has responded by committing to stricter standards of operation and management. A critical element of these management practices is the use of a structured incident investigation program. Many facilities have implemented and disciplined themselves to perform good investigation of incidents. However, most of these facilities maintain incident investigation as part of their safety management programs. This allows the process to be disconnected from the management system that deals with the day-to-day business of the facility. The first step of integration is understanding the objectives and functions of the management system into which the integration is to occur. To begin, a common definition of management is needed. Management, for the purposes of this discussion, is defined as the system of activities used to control, coordinate, and improve the flow of work within a facility or organization. This definition refers to several concepts that need further development in order to understand how incident investigation can be integrated into a management system, including (a) flow of work, (b) control, and (c) improvement. Application can be made to the nuclear industry

  19. A deterministic width function model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. E. Puente

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Use of a deterministic fractal-multifractal (FM geometric method to model width functions of natural river networks, as derived distributions of simple multifractal measures via fractal interpolating functions, is reported. It is first demonstrated that the FM procedure may be used to simulate natural width functions, preserving their most relevant features like their overall shape and texture and their observed power-law scaling on their power spectra. It is then shown, via two natural river networks (Racoon and Brushy creeks in the United States, that the FM approach may also be used to closely approximate existing width functions.

  20. Risk factors for incident delirium in an acute general medical setting: a retrospective case-control study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomlinson, Emily Jane; Phillips, Nicole M; Mohebbi, Mohammadreza; Hutchinson, Alison M

    2017-03-01

    To determine predisposing and precipitating risk factors for incident delirium in medical patients during an acute hospital admission. Incident delirium is the most common complication of hospital admission for older patients. Up to 30% of hospitalised medical patients experience incident delirium. Determining risk factors for delirium is important for identifying patients who are most susceptible to incident delirium. Retrospective case-control study with two controls per case. An audit tool was used to review medical records of patients admitted to acute medical units for data regarding potential risk factors for delirium. Data were collected between August 2013 and March 2014 at three hospital sites of a healthcare organisation in Melbourne, Australia. Cases were 161 patients admitted to an acute medical ward and diagnosed with incident delirium between 1 January 2012 and 31 December 2013. Controls were 321 patients sampled from the acute medical population admitted within the same time range, stratified for admission location and who did not develop incident delirium during hospitalisation. Identified using logistic regression modelling, predisposing risk factors for incident delirium were dementia, cognitive impairment, functional impairment, previous delirium and fracture on admission. Precipitating risk factors for incident delirium were use of an indwelling catheter, adding more than three medications during admission and having an abnormal sodium level during admission. Multiple risk factors for incident delirium exist; patients with a history of delirium, dementia and cognitive impairment are at greatest risk of developing delirium during hospitalisation. Nurses and other healthcare professionals should be aware of patients who have one or more risk factors for incident delirium. Knowledge of risk factors for delirium has the potential to increase the recognition and understanding of patients who are vulnerable to delirium. Early recognition and

  1. Epidemiology of Road Traffic Incidents in Peru 1973–2008: Incidence, Mortality, and Fatality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miranda, J. Jaime; López-Rivera, Luis A.; Quistberg, D. Alex; Rosales-Mayor, Edmundo; Gianella, Camila; Paca-Palao, Ada; Luna, Diego; Huicho, Luis; Paca, Ada; Luis, López; Luna, Diego; Rosales, Edmundo; Best, Pablo; Best, Pablo; Egúsquiza, Miriam; Gianella, Camila; Lema, Claudia; Ludeña, Esperanza; Miranda, J. Jaime; Huicho, Luis

    2014-01-01

    Background The epidemiological profile and trends of road traffic injuries (RTIs) in Peru have not been well-defined, though this is a necessary step to address this significant public health problem in Peru. The objective of this study was to determine trends of incidence, mortality, and fatality of RTIs in Peru during 1973–2008, as well as their relationship to population trends such as economic growth. Methods and Findings Secondary aggregated databases were used to estimate incidence, mortality and fatality rate ratios (IRRs) of RTIs. These estimates were standardized to age groups and sex of the 2008 Peruvian population. Negative binomial regression and cubic spline curves were used for multivariable analysis. During the 35-year period there were 952,668 road traffic victims, injured or killed. The adjusted yearly incidence of RTIs increased by 3.59 (95% CI 2.43–5.31) on average. We did not observe any significant trends in the yearly mortality rate. The total adjusted yearly fatality rate decreased by 0.26 (95% CI 0.15–0.43), while among adults the fatality rate increased by 1.25 (95% CI 1.09–1.43). Models fitted with splines suggest that the incidence follows a bimodal curve and closely followed trends in the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita Conclusions The significant increasing incidence of RTIs in Peru affirms their growing threat to public health. A substantial improvement of information systems for RTIs is needed to create a more accurate epidemiologic profile of RTIs in Peru. This approach can be of use in other similar low and middle-income settings to inform about the local challenges posed by RTIs. PMID:24927195

  2. Model wave functions for the deuteron

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Certov, A.; Mathelitsch, L.; Moravcsik, M.J.

    1987-01-01

    Model wave functions are constructed for the deuteron to facilitate the unambiguous exploration of dependencies on the percentage D state and on the small-, medium-, and large-distance parts of the deuteron wave function. The wave functions are constrained by those deuteron properties which are accurately known experimentally, and are in an analytic form which is easily integrable in expressions usually encountered in the use of such wave functions

  3. Computer incident response and forensics team management conducting a successful incident response

    CERN Document Server

    Johnson, Leighton

    2013-01-01

    Computer Incident Response and Forensics Team Management provides security professionals with a complete handbook of computer incident response from the perspective of forensics team management. This unique approach teaches readers the concepts and principles they need to conduct a successful incident response investigation, ensuring that proven policies and procedures are established and followed by all team members. Leighton R. Johnson III describes the processes within an incident response event and shows the crucial importance of skillful forensics team management, including when and where the transition to forensics investigation should occur during an incident response event. The book also provides discussions of key incident response components. Provides readers with a complete handbook on computer incident response from the perspective of forensics team management Identify the key steps to completing a successful computer incident response investigation Defines the qualities necessary to become a succ...

  4. Integral particle reflection coefficient for oblique incidence of photons as universal function in the domain of initial energies up to 300 keV

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ljubenov Vladan L.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we present the results of calculations and analyses of the integral particle reflection coefficient of photons for oblique photon incidence on planar targets, in the domain of initial photon energies from 100 keV to 300 keV. The results are based on the Monte Carlo simulations of the photon reflection from water, concrete, aluminum, iron, and copper materials, performed by the MCNP code. It has been observed that the integral particle reflection coefficient as a function of the ratio of total cross-section of photons and effective atomic number of target material shows universal behavior for all the analyzed shielding materials in the selected energy domain. Analytical formulas for different angles of photon incidence have been proposed, which describe the reflection of photons for all the materials and energies analyzed.

  5. Incident Atrial Fibrillation and Disability-Free Survival in the Cardiovascular Health Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallace, Erin R; Siscovick, David S; Sitlani, Colleen M; Dublin, Sascha; Mitchell, Pamela H; Odden, Michelle C; Hirsch, Calvin H; Thielke, Stephen; Heckbert, Susan R

    2016-04-01

    To assess the associations between incident atrial fibrillation (AF) and disability-free survival and risk of disability. Prospective cohort study. Cardiovascular Health Study. Individuals aged 65 and older and enrolled in fee-for-service Medicare followed between 1991 and 2009 (MN = 4,046). Individuals with prevalent AF, activity of daily living (ADL) disability, or a history of stroke or heart failure at baseline were excluded. Incident AF was identified according to annual study electrocardiogram, hospital discharge diagnosis, or Medicare claims. Disability-free survival was defined as survival free of ADL disability (any difficulty or inability in bathing, dressing, eating, using the toilet, walking around the home, or getting out of a bed or chair). ADLs were assessed at annual study visits or in a telephone interview. Association between incident AF and disability-free survival or risk of disability was estimated using Cox proportional hazards models. Over an average of 7.0 years of follow-up, 660 individuals (16.3%) developed incident AF, and 3,112 (77%) became disabled or died. Incident AF was associated with shorter disability-free survival (hazard ratio (HR) for death or ADL disability = 1.71, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.55-1.90) and a higher risk of ADL disability (HR = 1.36, 95% CI = 1.18-1.58) than in individuals with no history of AF. This association persisted after adjustment for interim stroke and heart failure. These results suggest that AF is a risk factor for shorter functional longevity in older adults, independent of other risk factors and comorbid conditions. © 2016, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2016, The American Geriatrics Society.

  6. Application of an aviation model of incident reporting and investigation to the neurosurgical scenario: method and preliminary data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferroli, Paolo; Caldiroli, Dario; Acerbi, Francesco; Scholtze, Maurizio; Piro, Alfonso; Schiariti, Marco; Orena, Eleonora F; Castiglione, Melina; Broggi, Morgan; Perin, Alessandro; DiMeco, Francesco

    2012-11-01

    Incident reporting systems are universally recognized as important tools for quality improvement in all complex adaptive systems, including the operating room. Nevertheless, introducing a safety culture among neurosurgeons is a slow process, and few studies are available in the literature regarding the implementation of an incident reporting system within a neurosurgical department. The authors describe the institution of an aviation model of incident reporting and investigation in neurosurgery, focusing on the method they have used and presenting some preliminary results. In 2010, the Inpatient Safety On-Board project was developed through cooperation between a team of human factor and safety specialists with aviation backgrounds (DgSky team) and the general manager of the Fondazione Istituto Neurologico Carlo Besta. In 2011, after specific training in safety culture, the authors implemented an aviation-derived prototype of incident reporting within the Department of Neurosurgery. They then developed an experimental protocol to track, analyze, and categorize any near misses that happened in the operating room. This project officially started in January 2012, when a dedicated team of assessors was established. All members of the neurosurgical department were asked to report near misses on a voluntary, confidential, and protected form (Patient Incident Reporting System form, Besta Safety Management Programme). Reports were entered into an online database and analyzed by a dedicated team of assessors with the help of a facilitator, and an aviation-derived root cause analysis was performed. Since January 2012, 14 near misses were analyzed and classified. The near-miss contributing factors were mainly related to human factors (9 of 14 cases), technology (1 of 14 cases), organizational factors (3 of 14 cases), or procedural factors (1 of 14 cases). Implementing an incident reporting system is quite demanding; the process should involve all of the people who work within

  7. PSA Model Improvement Using Maintenance Rule Function Mapping

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seo, Mi Ro [KHNP-CRI, Nuclear Safety Laboratory, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2011-10-15

    The Maintenance Rule (MR) program, in nature, is a performance-based program. Therefore, the risk information derived from the Probabilistic Safety Assessment model is introduced into the MR program during the Safety Significance determination and Performance Criteria selection processes. However, this process also facilitates the determination of the vulnerabilities in currently utilized PSA models and offers means of improving them. To find vulnerabilities in an existing PSA model, an initial review determines whether the safety-related MR functions are included in the PSA model. Because safety-related MR functions are related to accident prevention and mitigation, it is generally necessary for them to be included in the PSA model. In the process of determining the safety significance of each functions, quantitative risk importance levels are determined through a process known as PSA model basic event mapping to MR functions. During this process, it is common for some inadequate and overlooked models to be uncovered. In this paper, the PSA model and the MR program of Wolsong Unit 1 were used as references

  8. The Incidence of Necrotizing Enterocolitis Is Increased Following Probiotic Administration to Preterm Pigs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cilieborg, Malene Skovsted; Thymann, Thomas; Siggers, Richard

    2011-01-01

    Preterm birth and necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) is associated with inappropriate gut colonization and immunity, which may be improved by probiotic bacteria. Using a preterm pig model of NEC, we investigated the effects of probiotics on intestinal structure, function, microbiology, and immunology...... with controls (n = 14). All pigs received parenteral nutrition for 2 d followed by enteral formula feeding until tissue collection on d 5. Compared with control pigs, intestinal weight was lower and NEC incidence was higher in both groups given probiotics (64–67 vs. 14%; P...

  9. Application of a Combined Model with Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA and Generalized Regression Neural Network (GRNN in Forecasting Hepatitis Incidence in Heng County, China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wudi Wei

    Full Text Available Hepatitis is a serious public health problem with increasing cases and property damage in Heng County. It is necessary to develop a model to predict the hepatitis epidemic that could be useful for preventing this disease.The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA model and the generalized regression neural network (GRNN model were used to fit the incidence data from the Heng County CDC (Center for Disease Control and Prevention from January 2005 to December 2012. Then, the ARIMA-GRNN hybrid model was developed. The incidence data from January 2013 to December 2013 were used to validate the models. Several parameters, including mean absolute error (MAE, root mean square error (RMSE, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE and mean square error (MSE, were used to compare the performance among the three models.The morbidity of hepatitis from Jan 2005 to Dec 2012 has seasonal variation and slightly rising trend. The ARIMA(0,1,2(1,1,112 model was the most appropriate one with the residual test showing a white noise sequence. The smoothing factor of the basic GRNN model and the combined model was 1.8 and 0.07, respectively. The four parameters of the hybrid model were lower than those of the two single models in the validation. The parameters values of the GRNN model were the lowest in the fitting of the three models.The hybrid ARIMA-GRNN model showed better hepatitis incidence forecasting in Heng County than the single ARIMA model and the basic GRNN model. It is a potential decision-supportive tool for controlling hepatitis in Heng County.

  10. Thyroid hormone levels and incident chronic kidney disease in euthyroid individuals: the Kangbuk Samsung Health Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yiyi; Chang, Yoosoo; Ryu, Seungho; Cho, Juhee; Lee, Won-Young; Rhee, Eun-Jung; Kwon, Min-Jung; Pastor-Barriuso, Roberto; Rampal, Sanjay; Han, Won Kon; Shin, Hocheol; Guallar, Eliseo

    2014-10-01

    Overt and subclinical hypothyroidism are associated with higher levels of serum creatinine and with increased risk of chronic kidney disease (CKD). The prospective association between thyroid hormones and kidney function in euthyroid individuals,however, is largely unexplored. We conducted a prospective cohort study in 104 633 South Korean men and women who were free of CKD and proteinuria at baseline and had normal thyroid hormone levels and no history of thyroid disease or cancer. At each annual or biennial follow-up visit, thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH), free triiodothyronine (FT3) and free thyroxin (FT4) levels were measured by radioimmunoassay. The study outcome was incident CKD, defined as an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR)<60 ml/min/1.73 m2 based on the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration creatinine equation. After a median follow-up of 3.5 years, 1032 participants developed incident CKD.There was a positive association between high-normal levels of TSH and increased risk of incident CKD. In fully-adjusted models including baseline eGFR, the hazard ratio comparing the highest vs the lowest quintiles of TSH was 1.26 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.02 to 1.55; P for linear trend=0.03]. In spline models, FT3 levels below 3 pg/ml were also associated with increased risk of incident CKD. There was no association between FT4 levels and CKD. In a large cohort of euthyroid men and women, high levels of TSH and low levels of FT3, even within the normal range, were modestly associated with an increased risk of incident CKD.

  11. Trends in Dementia Incidence in a Birth Cohort Analysis of the Einstein Aging Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derby, Carol A; Katz, Mindy J; Lipton, Richard B; Hall, Charles B

    2017-11-01

    Trends in dementia incidence rates have important implications for planning and prevention. To better understand incidence trends over time requires separation of age and cohort effects, and few prior studies have used this approach. To examine trends in dementia incidence and concomitant trends in cardiovascular comorbidities among individuals aged 70 years or older who were enrolled in the Einstein Aging Study between 1993 and 2015. In this birth cohort analysis of all-cause dementia incidence in persons enrolled in the Einstein Aging Study from October 20, 1993, through November 17, 2015, a systematically recruited, population-based sample of 1348 participants from Bronx County, New York, who were 70 years or older without dementia at enrollment and at least one annual follow-up was studied. Poisson regression was used to model dementia incidence as a function of age, sex, educational level, race, and birth cohort, with profile likelihood used to identify the timing of significant increases or decreases in incidence. Birth year and age. Incident dementia defined by consensus case conference based on annual, standardized neuropsychological and neurologic examination findings, using criteria from the DSM-IV. Among 1348 individuals (mean [SD] baseline age, 78.5 [5.4] years; 830 [61.6%] female; 915 [67.9%] non-Hispanic white), 150 incident dementia cases developed during 5932 person-years (mean [SD] follow-up, 4.4 [3.4] years). Dementia incidence decreased in successive birth cohorts. Incidence per 100 person-years was 5.09 in birth cohorts before 1920, 3.11 in the 1920 through 1924 birth cohorts, 1.73 in the 1925 through 1929 birth cohorts, and 0.23 in cohorts born after 1929. Change point analyses identified a significant decrease in dementia incidence among those born after July 1929 (95% CI, June 1929 to January 1930). The relative rate for birth cohorts before July 1929 vs after was 0.13 (95% CI, 0.04-0.41). Prevalence of stroke and myocardial infarction

  12. Radiation-Induced Breast Cancer Incidence and Mortality From Digital Mammography Screening: A Modeling Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miglioretti, Diana L; Lange, Jane; van den Broek, Jeroen J; Lee, Christoph I; van Ravesteyn, Nicolien T; Ritley, Dominique; Kerlikowske, Karla; Fenton, Joshua J; Melnikow, Joy; de Koning, Harry J; Hubbard, Rebecca A

    2016-02-16

    Estimates of risk for radiation-induced breast cancer from mammography screening have not considered variation in dose exposure or diagnostic work-up after abnormal screening results. To estimate distributions of radiation-induced breast cancer incidence and mortality from digital mammography screening while considering exposure from screening and diagnostic mammography and dose variation among women. 2 simulation-modeling approaches. U.S. population. Women aged 40 to 74 years. Annual or biennial digital mammography screening from age 40, 45, or 50 years until age 74 years. Lifetime breast cancer deaths averted (benefits) and radiation-induced breast cancer incidence and mortality (harms) per 100,000 women screened. Annual screening of 100,000 women aged 40 to 74 years was projected to induce 125 breast cancer cases (95% CI, 88 to 178) leading to 16 deaths (CI, 11 to 23), relative to 968 breast cancer deaths averted by early detection from screening. Women exposed at the 95th percentile were projected to develop 246 cases of radiation-induced breast cancer leading to 32 deaths per 100,000 women. Women with large breasts requiring extra views for complete examination (8% of population) were projected to have greater radiation-induced breast cancer risk (266 cancer cases and 35 deaths per 100,000 women) than other women (113 cancer cases and 15 deaths per 100,000 women). Biennial screening starting at age 50 years reduced risk for radiation-induced cancer 5-fold. Life-years lost from radiation-induced breast cancer could not be estimated. Radiation-induced breast cancer incidence and mortality from digital mammography screening are affected by dose variability from screening, resultant diagnostic work-up, initiation age, and screening frequency. Women with large breasts may have a greater risk for radiation-induced breast cancer. Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, U.S. Preventive Services Task Force, National Cancer Institute.

  13. Temporal trends in hospitalisation for stroke recurrence following incident hospitalisation for stroke in Scotland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Langhorne Peter

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background There are few studies that have investigated temporal trends in risk of recurrent stroke. The aim of this study was to examine temporal trends in hospitalisation for stroke recurrence following incident hospitalisation for stroke in Scotland during 1986 to 2001. Methods Unadjusted survival analysis of time to first event, hospitalisation for recurrent stroke or death, was undertaken using the cumulative incidence method which takes into account competing risks. Regression on cumulative incidence functions was used to model the temporal trends of first recurrent stroke with adjustment for age, sex, socioeconomic status and comorbidity. Complete five year follow-up was obtained for all patients. Restricted cubic splines were used to determine the best fitting relationship between the survival events and study year. Results There were 128,511 incident hospitalisations for stroke in Scotland between 1986 and 2001, 57,351 (45% in men. A total of 13,835 (10.8% patients had a recurrent hospitalisation for stroke within five years of their incident hospitalisation. Another 74,220 (57.8% patients died within five years of their incident hospitalisation without first having a recurrent hospitalisation for stroke. Comparing incident stroke hospitalisations in 2001 with 1986, the adjusted risk of recurrent stroke hospitalisation decreased by 27%, HR = 0.73 95% CI (0.67 to 0.78, and the adjusted risk of death being the first event decreased by 28%, HR = 0.72 (0.70 to 0.75. Conclusions Over the 15-year period approximately 1 in 10 patients with an incident hospitalisation for stroke in Scotland went on to have a hospitalisation for recurrent stroke within five years. Approximately 6 in 10 patients died within five years without first having a recurrent stroke hospitalisation. Using hospitalisation and death data from an entire country over a 20-year period we have been able to demonstrate not only an improvement in survival following an

  14. Computational Models for Calcium-Mediated Astrocyte Functions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tiina Manninen

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The computational neuroscience field has heavily concentrated on the modeling of neuronal functions, largely ignoring other brain cells, including one type of glial cell, the astrocytes. Despite the short history of modeling astrocytic functions, we were delighted about the hundreds of models developed so far to study the role of astrocytes, most often in calcium dynamics, synchronization, information transfer, and plasticity in vitro, but also in vascular events, hyperexcitability, and homeostasis. Our goal here is to present the state-of-the-art in computational modeling of astrocytes in order to facilitate better understanding of the functions and dynamics of astrocytes in the brain. Due to the large number of models, we concentrated on a hundred models that include biophysical descriptions for calcium signaling and dynamics in astrocytes. We categorized the models into four groups: single astrocyte models, astrocyte network models, neuron-astrocyte synapse models, and neuron-astrocyte network models to ease their use in future modeling projects. We characterized the models based on which earlier models were used for building the models and which type of biological entities were described in the astrocyte models. Features of the models were compared and contrasted so that similarities and differences were more readily apparent. We discovered that most of the models were basically generated from a small set of previously published models with small variations. However, neither citations to all the previous models with similar core structure nor explanations of what was built on top of the previous models were provided, which made it possible, in some cases, to have the same models published several times without an explicit intention to make new predictions about the roles of astrocytes in brain functions. Furthermore, only a few of the models are available online which makes it difficult to reproduce the simulation results and further develop

  15. Computational Models for Calcium-Mediated Astrocyte Functions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manninen, Tiina; Havela, Riikka; Linne, Marja-Leena

    2018-01-01

    The computational neuroscience field has heavily concentrated on the modeling of neuronal functions, largely ignoring other brain cells, including one type of glial cell, the astrocytes. Despite the short history of modeling astrocytic functions, we were delighted about the hundreds of models developed so far to study the role of astrocytes, most often in calcium dynamics, synchronization, information transfer, and plasticity in vitro , but also in vascular events, hyperexcitability, and homeostasis. Our goal here is to present the state-of-the-art in computational modeling of astrocytes in order to facilitate better understanding of the functions and dynamics of astrocytes in the brain. Due to the large number of models, we concentrated on a hundred models that include biophysical descriptions for calcium signaling and dynamics in astrocytes. We categorized the models into four groups: single astrocyte models, astrocyte network models, neuron-astrocyte synapse models, and neuron-astrocyte network models to ease their use in future modeling projects. We characterized the models based on which earlier models were used for building the models and which type of biological entities were described in the astrocyte models. Features of the models were compared and contrasted so that similarities and differences were more readily apparent. We discovered that most of the models were basically generated from a small set of previously published models with small variations. However, neither citations to all the previous models with similar core structure nor explanations of what was built on top of the previous models were provided, which made it possible, in some cases, to have the same models published several times without an explicit intention to make new predictions about the roles of astrocytes in brain functions. Furthermore, only a few of the models are available online which makes it difficult to reproduce the simulation results and further develop the models. Thus

  16. Agency procedures for the NRC incident response plan. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1983-02-01

    The NRC Incident Response Plan, NUREG-0728/MC 0502 describes the functions of the NRC during an incident and the kinds of actions that comprise an NRC response. The NRC response plan will be activated in accordance with threshold criteria described in the plan for incidents occurring at nuclear reactors and fuel facilities involving materials licensees; during transportation of licensed material, and for threats against facilities or licensed material. In contrast to the general overview provided by the Plan, the purpose of these agency procedures is to delineate the manner in which each planned response function is performed; the criteria for making those response decisions which can be preplanned; and the information and other resources needed during a response. An inexperienced but qualified person should be able to perform functions assigned by the Plan and make necessary decisions, given the specified information, by becoming familiar with these procedures. This rule of thumb has been used to determine the amount of detail in which the agency procedures are described. These procedures form a foundation for the training of response personnel both in their normal working environment and during planned emergency exercises. These procedures also form a ready reference or reminder checklist for technical team members and managers during a response

  17. The CSB Incident Screening Database: description, summary statistics and uses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomez, Manuel R; Casper, Susan; Smith, E Allen

    2008-11-15

    This paper briefly describes the Chemical Incident Screening Database currently used by the CSB to identify and evaluate chemical incidents for possible investigations, and summarizes descriptive statistics from this database that can potentially help to estimate the number, character, and consequences of chemical incidents in the US. The report compares some of the information in the CSB database to roughly similar information available from databases operated by EPA and the Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry (ATSDR), and explores the possible implications of these comparisons with regard to the dimension of the chemical incident problem. Finally, the report explores in a preliminary way whether a system modeled after the existing CSB screening database could be developed to serve as a national surveillance tool for chemical incidents.

  18. Comparison of Strategies and Incidence Thresholds for Vi Conjugate Vaccines Against Typhoid Fever: A Cost-effectiveness Modeling Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lo, Nathan C; Gupta, Ribhav; Stanaway, Jeffrey D; Garrett, Denise O; Bogoch, Isaac I; Luby, Stephen P; Andrews, Jason R

    2018-02-12

    Typhoid fever remains a major public health problem globally. While new Vi conjugate vaccines hold promise for averting disease, the optimal programmatic delivery remains unclear. We aimed to identify the strategies and associated epidemiologic conditions under which Vi conjugate vaccines would be cost-effective. We developed a dynamic, age-structured transmission and cost-effectiveness model that simulated multiple vaccination strategies with a typhoid Vi conjugate vaccine from a societal perspective. We simulated 10-year vaccination programs with (1) routine immunization of infants (aged typhoid fever and defined strategies as highly cost-effective by using the definition of a low-income country (defined as a country with a gross domestic product of $1045 per capita). We defined incidence as the true number of clinically symptomatic people in the population per year. Vi conjugate typhoid vaccines were highly cost-effective when administered by routine immunization activities through the EPI in settings with an annual incidence of >50 cases/100000 (95% uncertainty interval, 40-75 cases) and when administered through the EPI plus a catch-up campaign in settings with an annual incidence of >130 cases/100000 (95% uncertainty interval, 50-395 cases). The incidence threshold was sensitive to the typhoid-related case-fatality rate, carrier contribution to transmission, vaccine characteristics, and country-specific economic threshold for cost-effectiveness. Typhoid Vi conjugate vaccines would be highly cost-effective in low-income countries in settings of moderate typhoid incidence (50 cases/100000 annually). These results were sensitive to case-fatality rates, underscoring the need to consider factors contributing to typhoid mortality (eg, healthcare access and antimicrobial resistance) in the global vaccination strategy. © The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America.

  19. Deriving profiles of incident and scattered neutrons for TOF experiments with the spallation sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watanabe, Hidehiro

    1993-01-01

    A formula that closely matches the incident profile of epi-thermal and thermal neutrons for time of flight experiments carried out with a spallation neutron source and moderator scheme is derived based on the slowing-down and diffusing-out processes in a moderator. This analytical description also enables us to predict burst-function profiles; these profiles are verified by a comparison with a diffraction pattern. The limits of the analytical model are discussed through the predictable peak position shift brought about by the slowing-down process. (orig.)

  20. AN APPLICATION OF FUNCTIONAL MULTIVARIATE REGRESSION MODEL TO MULTICLASS CLASSIFICATION

    OpenAIRE

    Krzyśko, Mirosław; Smaga, Łukasz

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, the scale response functional multivariate regression model is considered. By using the basis functions representation of functional predictors and regression coefficients, this model is rewritten as a multivariate regression model. This representation of the functional multivariate regression model is used for multiclass classification for multivariate functional data. Computational experiments performed on real labelled data sets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed ...

  1. Scrutinizing incident reporting in anaesthesia: why is an incident perceived as critical?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Maaløe, R; la Cour, M; Hansen, A

    2006-01-01

    The purpose of the present study was to measure the incidence and type of incidents that occurred in relation to anaesthesia and surgery during a 1-year period in six Danish hospitals. Furthermore, we wanted to identify risk factors for incidents, as well as risk factors for incidents being deeme...... critical....

  2. Age at menopause and incident heart failure: the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebong, Imo A; Watson, Karol E; Goff, David C; Bluemke, David A; Srikanthan, Preethi; Horwich, Tamara; Bertoni, Alain G

    2014-06-01

    This study aims to evaluate the associations of early menopause (menopause occurring before age 45 years) and age at menopause with incident heart failure (HF) in postmenopausal women. We also explored the associations of early menopause and age at menopause with left ventricular (LV) measures of structure and function in postmenopausal women. We included 2,947 postmenopausal women, aged 45 to 84 years without known cardiovascular disease (2000-2002), from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis. Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine the associations of early menopause and age at menopause with incident HF. In 2,123 postmenopausal women in whom cardiac magnetic resonance imaging was obtained at baseline, we explored the associations of early menopause and age at menopause with LV measures using multivariable linear regression. Across a median follow-up of 8.5 years, we observed 71 HF events. There were no significant interactions with ethnicity for incident HF (Pinteraction > 0.05). In adjusted analysis, early menopause was associated with an increased risk of incident HF (hazard ratio, 1.66; 95% CI, 1.01-2.73), whereas every 1-year increase in age at menopause was associated with a decreased risk of incident HF (hazard ratio, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.94-0.99). We observed significant interactions between early menopause and ethnicity for LV mass-to-volume ratio (LVMVR; Pinteraction = 0.02). In Chinese-American women, early menopause was associated with a higher LVMVR (+0.11; P = 0.0002), whereas every 1-year increase in age at menopause was associated with a lower LVMVR (-0.004; P = 0.04) at baseline. Older age at menopause is independently associated with a decreased risk of incident HF. Concentric LV remodeling, indicated by a higher LVMVR, is present in Chinese-American women who experienced early menopause at baseline.

  3. The functional dependence of the total hazard from an air pollution incidence on the environmental parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skibin, D.

    1980-01-01

    A general case of release to the atmosphere of a pollutant is considered. In hazards evaluation the processes involved are usually estimated conservatively so as to maximize the computed doses. The present work helps to identify the worst cases. In addition, a model of the total dose is presented and its variations are studied as a function of wind speed, deposition velocity and source height. The value of each parameter giving the highest total dose as a function of the model's parameters is determined. (H.K.)

  4. Rural and urban distribution of trauma incidents in Scotland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrison, J J; McConnell, N J; Orman, J A; Egan, G; Jansen, J O

    2013-02-01

    Trauma systems reduce mortality and improve functional outcomes from injury. Regional trauma networks have been established in several European regions to address longstanding deficiencies in trauma care. A perception of the geography and population distribution as challenging has delayed the introduction of a trauma system in Scotland. The characteristics of trauma incidents attended by the Scottish Ambulance Service were analysed, to gain a better understanding of the geospatial characteristics of trauma in Scotland. Data on trauma incidents collected by the Scottish Ambulance Service between November 2008 and October 2010 were obtained. Incident location was analysed by health board region, rurality and social deprivation. The results are presented as number of patients, average annual incidence rates and relative risks. Of the 141,668 incidents identified, 72·1 per cent occurred in urban regions. The risk of being involved in an incident was similar across the most populous regions, and decreased slightly with increasing rurality. Social deprivation was associated with greater numbers and risk. A total of 53·1 per cent of patients were taken to a large general hospital, and 38·6 per cent to a teaching hospital; the distribution was similar for the subset of incidents involving patients with physiological derangements. The majority of trauma incidents in Scotland occur in urban and deprived areas. A regionalized system of trauma care appears plausible, although the precise configuration of such a system requires further study. Copyright © 2012 British Journal of Surgery Society Ltd. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  5. The universal function in color dipole model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jalilian, Z.; Boroun, G. R.

    2017-10-01

    In this work we review color dipole model and recall properties of the saturation and geometrical scaling in this model. Our primary aim is determining the exact universal function in terms of the introduced scaling variable in different distance than the saturation radius. With inserting the mass in calculation we compute numerically the contribution of heavy productions in small x from the total structure function by the fraction of universal functions and show the geometrical scaling is established due to our scaling variable in this study.

  6. NJL-jet model for quark fragmentation functions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ito, T.; Bentz, W.; Cloeet, I. C.; Thomas, A. W.; Yazaki, K.

    2009-01-01

    A description of fragmentation functions which satisfy the momentum and isospin sum rules is presented in an effective quark theory. Concentrating on the pion fragmentation function, we first explain why the elementary (lowest order) fragmentation process q→qπ is completely inadequate to describe the empirical data, although the crossed process π→qq describes the quark distribution functions in the pion reasonably well. Taking into account cascadelike processes in a generalized jet-model approach, we then show that the momentum and isospin sum rules can be satisfied naturally, without the introduction of ad hoc parameters. We present results for the Nambu-Jona-Lasinio (NJL) model in the invariant mass regularization scheme and compare them with the empirical parametrizations. We argue that the NJL-jet model, developed herein, provides a useful framework with which to calculate the fragmentation functions in an effective chiral quark theory.

  7. Factorisations for partition functions of random Hermitian matrix models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jackson, D.M.; Visentin, T.I.

    1996-01-01

    The partition function Z N , for Hermitian-complex matrix models can be expressed as an explicit integral over R N , where N is a positive integer. Such an integral also occurs in connection with random surfaces and models of two dimensional quantum gravity. We show that Z N can be expressed as the product of two partition functions, evaluated at translated arguments, for another model, giving an explicit connection between the two models. We also give an alternative computation of the partition function for the φ 4 -model.The approach is an algebraic one and holds for the functions regarded as formal power series in the appropriate ring. (orig.)

  8. Predictive assessment of models for dynamic functional connectivity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Søren Føns Vind; Schmidt, Mikkel Nørgaard; Madsen, Kristoffer Hougaard

    2018-01-01

    represent functional brain networks as a meta-stable process with a discrete number of states; however, there is a lack of consensus on how to perform model selection and learn the number of states, as well as a lack of understanding of how different modeling assumptions influence the estimated state......In neuroimaging, it has become evident that models of dynamic functional connectivity (dFC), which characterize how intrinsic brain organization changes over time, can provide a more detailed representation of brain function than traditional static analyses. Many dFC models in the literature...... dynamics. To address these issues, we consider a predictive likelihood approach to model assessment, where models are evaluated based on their predictive performance on held-out test data. Examining several prominent models of dFC (in their probabilistic formulations) we demonstrate our framework...

  9. A mathematical model of avian influenza with half-saturated incidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chong, Nyuk Sian; Tchuenche, Jean Michel; Smith, Robert J

    2014-03-01

    The widespread impact of avian influenza viruses not only poses risks to birds, but also to humans. The viruses spread from birds to humans and from human to human In addition, mutation in the primary strain will increase the infectiousness of avian influenza. We developed a mathematical model of avian influenza for both bird and human populations. The effect of half-saturated incidence on transmission dynamics of the disease is investigated. The half-saturation constants determine the levels at which birds and humans contract avian influenza. To prevent the spread of avian influenza, the associated half-saturation constants must be increased, especially the half-saturation constant H m for humans with mutant strain. The quantity H m plays an essential role in determining the basic reproduction number of this model. Furthermore, by decreasing the rate β m at which human-to-human mutant influenza is contracted, an outbreak can be controlled more effectively. To combat the outbreak, we propose both pharmaceutical (vaccination) and non-pharmaceutical (personal protection and isolation) control methods to reduce the transmission of avian influenza. Vaccination and personal protection will decrease β m, while isolation will increase H m. Numerical simulations demonstrate that all proposed control strategies will lead to disease eradication; however, if we only employ vaccination, it will require slightly longer to eradicate the disease than only applying non-pharmaceutical or a combination of pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical control methods. In conclusion, it is important to adopt a combination of control methods to fight an avian influenza outbreak.

  10. Computer Security Incident Response Team Effectiveness: A Needs Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van der Kleij, Rick; Kleinhuis, Geert; Young, Heather

    2017-01-01

    Computer security incident response teams (CSIRTs) respond to a computer security incident when the need arises. Failure of these teams can have far-reaching effects for the economy and national security. CSIRTs often have to work on an ad hoc basis, in close cooperation with other teams, and in time constrained environments. It could be argued that under these working conditions CSIRTs would be likely to encounter problems. A needs assessment was done to see to which extent this argument holds true. We constructed an incident response needs model to assist in identifying areas that require improvement. We envisioned a model consisting of four assessment categories: Organization, Team, Individual and Instrumental. Central to this is the idea that both problems and needs can have an organizational, team, individual, or technical origin or a combination of these levels. To gather data we conducted a literature review. This resulted in a comprehensive list of challenges and needs that could hinder or improve, respectively, the performance of CSIRTs. Then, semi-structured in depth interviews were held with team coordinators and team members of five public and private sector Dutch CSIRTs to ground these findings in practice and to identify gaps between current and desired incident handling practices. This paper presents the findings of our needs assessment and ends with a discussion of potential solutions to problems with performance in incident response.

  11. Computer Security Incident Response Team Effectiveness: A Needs Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rick Van der Kleij

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Computer security incident response teams (CSIRTs respond to a computer security incident when the need arises. Failure of these teams can have far-reaching effects for the economy and national security. CSIRTs often have to work on an ad hoc basis, in close cooperation with other teams, and in time constrained environments. It could be argued that under these working conditions CSIRTs would be likely to encounter problems. A needs assessment was done to see to which extent this argument holds true. We constructed an incident response needs model to assist in identifying areas that require improvement. We envisioned a model consisting of four assessment categories: Organization, Team, Individual and Instrumental. Central to this is the idea that both problems and needs can have an organizational, team, individual, or technical origin or a combination of these levels. To gather data we conducted a literature review. This resulted in a comprehensive list of challenges and needs that could hinder or improve, respectively, the performance of CSIRTs. Then, semi-structured in depth interviews were held with team coordinators and team members of five public and private sector Dutch CSIRTs to ground these findings in practice and to identify gaps between current and desired incident handling practices. This paper presents the findings of our needs assessment and ends with a discussion of potential solutions to problems with performance in incident response.

  12. Correlation functions of two-matrix models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bonora, L.; Xiong, C.S.

    1993-11-01

    We show how to calculate correlation functions of two matrix models without any approximation technique (except for genus expansion). In particular we do not use any continuum limit technique. This allows us to find many solutions which are invisible to the latter technique. To reach our goal we make full use of the integrable hierarchies and their reductions which were shown in previous papers to naturally appear in multi-matrix models. The second ingredient we use, even though to a lesser extent, are the W-constraints. In fact an explicit solution of the relevant hierarchy, satisfying the W-constraints (string equation), underlies the explicit calculation of the correlation functions. The correlation functions we compute lend themselves to a possible interpretation in terms of topological field theories. (orig.)

  13. Incidence and survival in non-hereditary amyloidosis in Sweden

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hemminki Kari

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Amyloidosis is a heterogeneous disease caused by deposition of amyloid fibrils in organs and thereby interfering with physiological functions. Hardly any incidence data are available and most survival data are limited to specialist clinics. Methods Amyloidosis patients were identified from the Swedish Hospital Discharge and Outpatients Registers from years 2001 through 2008. Results The incidence of non-hereditary amyloidosis in 949 patients was 8.29 per million person-years and the diagnostic age with the highest incidence was over 65 years. Secondary systemic amyloidosis showed an incidence of 1 per million and a female excess and the largest number of subsequent rheumatoid arthritis deaths; the median survival was 4 years. However, as rheumatoid arthritis deaths also occurred in other diagnostic subtypes, the incidence of secondary systemic amyloidosis was likely to be about 2.0 per million. The median survival of patients with organ-limited amyloidosis was 6 years. Most myeloma deaths occurred in patients diagnosed with unspecified or ‘other’ amyloidosis. These subtypes probably accounted for most of immunoglobulin light chain (AL amyloidosis cases; the median survival time was 3 years. Conclusions The present diagnostic categorization cannot single out AL amyloidosis in the Swedish discharge data but, by extrapolation from myeloma cases, an incidence of 3.2 per million could be ascribed to AL amyloidosis. Similarly, based on rheumatoid arthritis death rates, an incidence of 2.0 could be ascribed to secondary systemic amyloidosis.

  14. Modification of radiation-induced murine thymic lymphoma incidence by curcumin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dange, P.S.; Yadav, H.D.; Kumar, Vimalesh; Bhilwade, H.N.; Pandey, B.N.; Sarma, H.D.

    2017-01-01

    Curcumin is a known antioxidant, preventing radiation damage including carcinogenesis. However, concentration and feeding schedule of curcumin in modification of radiation induced thymic lymphoma incidence in vivo model has not been studied. We report here modification of incidence of γ-radiation-induced thymic lymphoma in mice fed with different doses of curcumin (0.05 to 1 %) in diet. Results: Female Swiss mice (6-8 weeks) fed with normal diet and exposed to 3 Gy whole body "6"0Co γ-irradiation (WBI) showed 85 % incidence of thymic lymphoma (TL) at 120 days post-irradiation. A concentration of 1 % curcumin was found the most effective in TL incidence prevention than other fed concentrations. The TL incidence was remarkably reduced when curcumin was fed to the mice before than after the radiation exposure. These results suggest modification of TL incidence by curcumin in irradiated mice involving DNA damage and apoptotic death mechanisms

  15. 3D computation of the shape of etched tracks in CR-39 for oblique particle incidence and comparison with experimental results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doerschel, B.; Hermsdorf, D.; Reichelt, U.; Starke, S.; Wang, Y.

    2003-01-01

    Computation of the shape of etch pits needs to know the varying track etch rate along the particle trajectories. Experiments with alpha particles and 7 Li ions entering CR-39 detectors under different angles showed that this function is not affected by the inclination of the particle trajectory with respect to the normal on the detector surface. Track formation for oblique particle incidence can, therefore, be simulated using the track etch rates determined for perpendicular incidence. 3D computation of the track shape was performed applying a model recently described in literature. A special program has been written for computing the x,y,z coordinates of points on the etch pit walls. In addition, the etch pit profiles in sagittal sections as well as the contours of the etch pit openings on the detector surface have been determined experimentally. Computed and experimental results were in good agreement confirming the applicability of the 3D computational model in combination with the functions for the depth-dependent track etch rates determined experimentally

  16. Global Inequalities in Cervical Cancer Incidence and Mortality are Linked to Deprivation, Low Socioeconomic Status, and Human Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gopal K. Singh, PhD

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Objective: This study examined global inequalities in cervical cancer incidence and mortality rates as a function of cross-national variations in the Human Development Index (HDI, socioeconomic factors, Gender Inequality Index (GII, and healthcare expenditure.Methods: Age-adjusted incidence and mortality rates were calculated for women in 184 countries using the 2008 GLOBOCAN database, and incidence and mortality trends were analyzed using the WHO cancer mortality database. Log-linear regression was used to model annual trends, while OLS and Poisson regression models were used to estimate the impact of socioeconomic and human development factors on incidence and mortality rates.Results: Cervical cancer incidence and mortality rates varied widely, with many African countries such as Guinea, Zambia, Comoros, Tanzania, and Malawi having at least 10-to-20-fold higher rates than several West Asian, Middle East, and European countries, including Iran, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Egypt, and Switzerland. HDI, GII, poverty rate, health expenditure per capita, urbanization, and literacy rate were all significantly related to cervical cancer incidence and mortality, with HDI and poverty rate each explaining >52% of the global variance in mortality. Both incidence and mortality rates increased in relation to lower human development and higher gender inequality levels. A 0.2 unit increase in HDI was associated with a 20% decrease in cervical cancer risk and a 33% decrease in cervical cancer mortality risk. The risk of a cervical cancer diagnosis increased by 24% and of cervical cancer death by 42% for a 0.2 unit increase in GII. Higher health expenditure levels were independently associated with decreased incidence and mortality risks.Conclusions and Public Health Implications: Global inequalities in cervical cancer are clearly linked to disparities in human development, social inequality, and living standards. Reductions in cervical cancer rates are achievable by

  17. Multinomial-exponential reliability function: a software reliability model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saiz de Bustamante, Amalio; Saiz de Bustamante, Barbara

    2003-01-01

    The multinomial-exponential reliability function (MERF) was developed during a detailed study of the software failure/correction processes. Later on MERF was approximated by a much simpler exponential reliability function (EARF), which keeps most of MERF mathematical properties, so the two functions together makes up a single reliability model. The reliability model MERF/EARF considers the software failure process as a non-homogeneous Poisson process (NHPP), and the repair (correction) process, a multinomial distribution. The model supposes that both processes are statistically independent. The paper discusses the model's theoretical basis, its mathematical properties and its application to software reliability. Nevertheless it is foreseen model applications to inspection and maintenance of physical systems. The paper includes a complete numerical example of the model application to a software reliability analysis

  18. Investigation and modeling of the effects of light spectrum and incident angle on the growth of Chlorella vulgaris in photobioreactors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Souliès, Antoine; Legrand, Jack; Marec, Hélène; Pruvost, Jérémy; Castelain, Cathy; Burghelea, Teodor; Cornet, Jean-François

    2016-03-01

    An in-depth investigation of how various illumination conditions influence microalgal growth in photobioreactors (PBR) has been presented. Effects of both the light emission spectrum (white and red) and the light incident angle (0° and 60°) on the PBR surface were investigated. The experiments were conducted in two fully controlled lab-scale PBRs, a torus PBR and a thin flat-panel PBR for high cell density culture. The results obtained in the torus PBR were used to build the kinetic growth model of Chlorella vulgaris taken as a model species. The PBR model was then applied to the thin flat-panel PBR, which was run with various illumination conditions. Its detailed representation of local rate of photon absorption under various conditions (spectral calculation of light attenuation, incident angle influence) enabled the model to take into account all the tested conditions with no further adjustment. This allowed a detailed investigation of the coupling between radiation field and photosynthetic growth. Effects of all the radiation conditions together with pigment acclimation, which was found to be relevant, were investigated in depth. © 2016 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Biotechnol. Prog., 32:247-261, 2016. © 2016 American Institute of Chemical Engineers.

  19. Incidence and physical properties of PSE chicken meat in a commercial processing plant

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    RG Garcia

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available It is known that PSE meat present important functional defects, such as low water holding capacity and ultimate pH, which may compromise the quality of further-processed meat products. In this study, L* (lightness, a* (redness, and b* (yellowness values of 500 chicken breast fillets were determined using a portable colorimeter (Minolta, model CR-400 in a commercial processing plant. Fillets were considered pale when their L* was >49. Out of those samples, 30 fillets with normal color and 30 pale fillets were evaluated as to pH, drip loss, cooking loss, water holding capacity, shear force, and submitted to sensorial analysis. An incidence of 10.20% PSE meat was determined. Pale and normal fillets presented significantly different (p0.05 between pale and normal fillets. Despite the significant differences in meat physical properties, these were not perceived by consumers in terms of tenderness, aspect, and flavor. The observed incidence of PSE may cause losses due to its low water retention capacity.

  20. Modeling Functional Neuroanatomy for an Anatomy Information System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niggemann, Jörg M.; Gebert, Andreas; Schulz, Stefan

    2008-01-01

    Objective Existing neuroanatomical ontologies, databases and information systems, such as the Foundational Model of Anatomy (FMA), represent outgoing connections from brain structures, but cannot represent the “internal wiring” of structures and as such, cannot distinguish between different independent connections from the same structure. Thus, a fundamental aspect of Neuroanatomy, the functional pathways and functional systems of the brain such as the pupillary light reflex system, is not adequately represented. This article identifies underlying anatomical objects which are the source of independent connections (collections of neurons) and uses these as basic building blocks to construct a model of functional neuroanatomy and its functional pathways. Design The basic representational elements of the model are unnamed groups of neurons or groups of neuron segments. These groups, their relations to each other, and the relations to the objects of macroscopic anatomy are defined. The resulting model can be incorporated into the FMA. Measurements The capabilities of the presented model are compared to the FMA and the Brain Architecture Management System (BAMS). Results Internal wiring as well as functional pathways can correctly be represented and tracked. Conclusion This model bridges the gap between representations of single neurons and their parts on the one hand and representations of spatial brain structures and areas on the other hand. It is capable of drawing correct inferences on pathways in a nervous system. The object and relation definitions are related to the Open Biomedical Ontology effort and its relation ontology, so that this model can be further developed into an ontology of neuronal functional systems. PMID:18579841

  1. Early Mortality Was Highly and Strongly Associated with Functional Status in Incident Japanese Hemodialysis Patients: A Cohort Study of the Large National Dialysis Registry.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masahiko Yazawa

    Full Text Available Although dialysis is typically started in an effort to prolong survival, mortality is reportedly high in the first few months. However, it remains unclear whether this is true in Japanese patients who tend to have a better prognosis than other ethnicities, and if health conditions such as functional status (FS at initiation of dialysis influence prognosis.We investigated the epidemiology of early death and its association with FS using Japanese national registry data in 2007, which included 35,415 patients on incident dialysis and 7,664 with FS data. The main outcome was early death, defined as death within 3 months after initiation of hemodialysis (HD. The main predictor was FS at initiation of HD. Levels of functional disability were categorized as follows: severe (bedridden, moderate (overt difficulties in exerting basic activities of daily living, or mild/none (none or some functional disabilities.Early death remained relatively common, especially among elderly patients (overall: 7.1%; those aged ≥80 years: 15.8%. Severely and even only a moderately impaired FS were significantly associated with early death after starting dialysis (adjusted risk ratios: 3.93 and 2.38, respectively. The incidence of early death in those with impaired FS increased with age (36.5% in those with severely impaired FS and aged ≥80 years.Early death after starting dialysis was relatively common, especially among the elderly, even in Japanese patients. Further, early death was significantly associated with impaired FS at initiation of HD.

  2. On Support Functions for the Development of MFM Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heussen, Kai; Lind, Morten

    2012-01-01

    a review of MFM applications, and contextualizes the model development with respect to process design and operation knowledge. Developing a perspective for an environment for MFM-oriented model- and application-development a tool-chain is outlined and relevant software functions are discussed......A modeling environment and methodology are necessary to ensure quality and reusability of models in any domain. For MFM in particular, as a tool for modeling complex systems, awareness has been increasing for this need. Introducing the context of modeling support functions, this paper provides....... With a perspective on MFM-modeling for existing processes and automation design, modeling stages and corresponding formal model properties are identified. Finally, practically feasible support functions and model-checks to support the model-development are suggested....

  3. Cumulative Incidence Function in Studies on the Duration of the Unemployment Exit Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bieszk-Stolorz Beata

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available When we analyse the employment seeking process, an event that ends the observation of a given individual is their employment. The remaining observations are considered to be censored: the observations concluded before the end of the study or the cases of deregistering for other causes (e.g. old-age pension, taking up residence in a foreign country, starting further education. The act of taking up income-generating work can take various forms: taking up a job, setting up a business or taking advantage of subsidised job programmes. Jobseekers are often deregistered from poviat labour offices because they refuse to take up an offered job or fail to report to the office in due time. All the above events are forms of competing risk. The purpose of this paper is to use the cumulative incidence function to assess the probability of the unemployment exit with regard to different types of the competing risk. When competing-risk events occur, a solution sometimes is used where the remaining endpoint events are considered censored observations. Such a solution leads to an overestimation of probability. The results implicate that the beneficiaries’ will to find employment was not a principal reason for a registering decision. The study is based on the individual data of jobseekers registered in the Poviat Labour Office in Szczecin.

  4. Function of dynamic models in systems biology: linking structure to behaviour.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knüpfer, Christian; Beckstein, Clemens

    2013-10-08

    Dynamic models in Systems Biology are used in computational simulation experiments for addressing biological questions. The complexity of the modelled biological systems and the growing number and size of the models calls for computer support for modelling and simulation in Systems Biology. This computer support has to be based on formal representations of relevant knowledge fragments. In this paper we describe different functional aspects of dynamic models. This description is conceptually embedded in our "meaning facets" framework which systematises the interpretation of dynamic models in structural, functional and behavioural facets. Here we focus on how function links the structure and the behaviour of a model. Models play a specific role (teleological function) in the scientific process of finding explanations for dynamic phenomena. In order to fulfil this role a model has to be used in simulation experiments (pragmatical function). A simulation experiment always refers to a specific situation and a state of the model and the modelled system (conditional function). We claim that the function of dynamic models refers to both the simulation experiment executed by software (intrinsic function) and the biological experiment which produces the phenomena under investigation (extrinsic function). We use the presented conceptual framework for the function of dynamic models to review formal accounts for functional aspects of models in Systems Biology, such as checklists, ontologies, and formal languages. Furthermore, we identify missing formal accounts for some of the functional aspects. In order to fill one of these gaps we propose an ontology for the teleological function of models. We have thoroughly analysed the role and use of models in Systems Biology. The resulting conceptual framework for the function of models is an important first step towards a comprehensive formal representation of the functional knowledge involved in the modelling and simulation process

  5. Pesticide exposure and self-reported incident depression among wives in the Agricultural Health Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beard, John D; Hoppin, Jane A; Richards, Marie; Alavanja, Michael C R; Blair, Aaron; Sandler, Dale P; Kamel, Freya

    2013-10-01

    Depression in women is a public health problem. Studies have reported positive associations between pesticides and depression, but few studies were prospective or presented results for women separately. We evaluated associations between pesticide exposure and incident depression among farmers' wives in the Agricultural Health Study, a prospective cohort study in Iowa and North Carolina. We used data on 16,893 wives who did not report physician-diagnosed depression at enrollment (1993-1997) and who completed a follow-up telephone interview (2005-2010). Among these wives, 1054 reported physician diagnoses of depression at follow-up. We collected information on potential confounders and on ever use of any pesticide, 11 functional and chemical classes of pesticides, and 50 specific pesticides by wives and their husbands via self-administered questionnaires at enrollment. We used inverse probability weighting to adjust for potential confounders and to account for possible selection bias induced by the death or loss of 10,639 wives during follow-up. We used log-binomial regression models to estimate risk ratios and 95% confidence intervals. After weighting for age at enrollment, state of residence, education level, diabetes diagnosis, and drop out, wives' incident depression was positively associated with diagnosed pesticide poisoning, but was not associated with ever using any pesticide. Use of individual pesticides or functional or chemical classes of pesticides was generally not associated with wives' depression. Among wives who never used pesticides, husbands' ever use of individual pesticides or functional or chemical classes of pesticides was generally not associated with wives' incident depression. Our study adds further evidence that high level pesticide exposure, such as pesticide poisoning, is associated with increased risk of depression and sets a lower bound on the level of exposure related to depression, thereby providing reassurance that the moderate levels

  6. A class of stochastic delayed SIR epidemic models with generalized nonlinear incidence rate and temporary immunity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Kuangang; Zhang, Yan; Gao, Shujing; Wei, Xiang

    2017-09-01

    A class of SIR epidemic model with generalized nonlinear incidence rate is presented in this paper. Temporary immunity and stochastic perturbation are also considered. The existence and uniqueness of the global positive solution is achieved. Sufficient conditions guaranteeing the extinction and persistence of the epidemic disease are established. Moreover, the threshold behavior is discussed, and the threshold value R0 is obtained. We show that if R0 extinct with probability one, whereas if R0 > 1, then the system remains permanent in the mean.

  7. A DSM-based framework for integrated function modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eisenbart, Boris; Gericke, Kilian; Blessing, Lucienne T. M.

    2017-01-01

    an integrated function modelling framework, which specifically aims at relating between the different function modelling perspectives prominently addressed in different disciplines. It uses interlinked matrices based on the concept of DSM and MDM in order to facilitate cross-disciplinary modelling and analysis...... of the functionality of a system. The article further presents the application of the framework based on a product example. Finally, an empirical study in industry is presented. Therein, feedback on the potential of the proposed framework to support interdisciplinary design practice as well as on areas of further...

  8. Composite spectral functions for solving Volterra's population model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramezani, M.; Razzaghi, M.; Dehghan, M.

    2007-01-01

    An approximate method for solving Volterra's population model for population growth of a species in a closed system is proposed. Volterra's model is a nonlinear integro-differential equation, where the integral term represents the effect of toxin. The approach is based upon composite spectral functions approximations. The properties of composite spectral functions consisting of few terms of orthogonal functions are presented and are utilized to reduce the solution of the Volterra's model to the solution of a system of algebraic equations. The method is easy to implement and yields very accurate result

  9. Modeling Photosynthetically Active Radiation in Water of Tampa Bay, Florida, with Emphasis on the Geometry of Incident Irradiance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Ronald L.; McPherson, Benjamin F.

    1995-04-01

    Field studies that compare the spatial and temporal variation in light attenuation often neglect effects of solar elevation angle, yet these effects can be significant. To approximately correct for these angular effects, we developed a model that uses a simplified geometric description of incident direct solar beam and diffuse skylight. The model incorporates effects of solar elevation angle and cloudiness on the amount of in-air photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) that passes through the air-water interface and on K0in waters of relatively low turbidity. The model was calibrated with 3266 5-min averages of scalar PAR measured in air and at two depths in water and permits the value of K0to be adjusted approximately for the effects of time of day, season and cloudiness. The model was then used with 255 days of in-air PAR data (15-min averages) to evaluate irradiance that entered the water and attenuation in the water. On an annual basis, 49% of the incident scalar irradiance, or 380 μmol m -2s -1, was estimated to enter the water of Tampa Bay. The value of K0was estimated to vary as much as 41% on a clear summer day due to changes in solar elevation angle. The model was used to make estimates of the depth to which sea-grasses might receive adequate light for survival for a range of values of K0. This approach should be useful for projecting the effect of changes in water clarity on the depth of sea-grass survival and for comparing values of K0collected at different times of day and in different seasons.

  10. An isodose shift technique for obliquely incident electron beams

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ulin, K.; Sternick, E.S.

    1989-01-01

    It is well known that when an electron beam is incident obliquely on the surface of a phantom, the depth dose curve measured normal to the surface is shifted toward the surface. Based on geometrical arguments alone, the depth of the nth isodose line for an electron beam incident at an angle θ should be equal to the product of cos θ and the depth of the nth isodose line at normal incidence. This method, however, ignores the effects of scatter and can lead to significant errors in isodose placement for beams at large angles of incidence. A semi-empirical functional relationship and a table of isodose shift factors have been developed with which one may easily calculate the depth of any isodose line for beams at incident angles of 0 degree to 60 degree. The isodose shift factors are tabulated in terms of beam energy (6--22 MeV) and isodose line (10%--90%) and are shown to be relatively independent of beam size and incident angle for angles <60 degree. Extensive measurements have been made on a Varian Clinac 2500 linear accelerator with a parallel-plate chamber and polystyrene phantom. The dependence of the chamber response on beam angulation has been checked, and the scaling factor of the polystyrene phantom has been determined to be equal to 1.00

  11. Use of risk projection models to estimate mortality and incidence from radiation-induced breast cancer in screening programs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramos, M; Ferrer, S; Villaescusa, J I; Verdu, G; Salas, M D; Cuevas, M D

    2005-01-01

    The authors report on a method to calculate radiological risks, applicable to breast screening programs and other controlled medical exposures to ionizing radiation. In particular, it has been applied to make a risk assessment in the Valencian Breast Cancer Early Detection Program (VBCEDP) in Spain. This method is based on a parametric approach, through Markov processes, of hazard functions for radio-induced breast cancer incidence and mortality, with mean glandular breast dose, attained age and age-at-exposure as covariates. Excess relative risk functions of breast cancer mortality have been obtained from two different case-control studies exposed to ionizing radiation, with different follow-up time: the Canadian Fluoroscopy Cohort Study (1950-1987) and the Life Span Study (1950-1985 and 1950-1990), whereas relative risk functions for incidence have been obtained from the Life Span Study (1958-1993), the Massachusetts tuberculosis cohorts (1926-1985 and 1970-1985), the New York post-partum mastitis patients (1930-1981) and the Swedish benign breast disease cohort (1958-1987). Relative risks from these cohorts have been transported to the target population undergoing screening in the Valencian Community, a region in Spain with about four and a half million inhabitants. The SCREENRISK software has been developed to estimate radiological detriments in breast screening. Some hypotheses corresponding to different screening conditions have been considered in order to estimate the total risk associated with a woman who takes part in all screening rounds. In the case of the VBCEDP, the total radio-induced risk probability for fatal breast cancer is in a range between [5 x 10 -6 , 6 x 10 -4 ] versus the natural rate of dying from breast cancer in the Valencian Community which is 9.2 x 10 -3 . The results show that these indicators could be included in quality control tests and could be adequate for making comparisons between several screening programs

  12. Incidence of social phobia and identification of its risk indicators: A model for prevention.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Acarturk, C.; Smit, H.F.E.; Graaf, de R.; Straten, van A.; Have, M. ten; Cuijpers, P.

    2009-01-01

    Objective: This study seeks to examine the incidence of social phobia in the general population and to establish a number of risk indicators. Method: Data were derived from the Netherlands Mental Health Survey and Incidence Study (NEMESIS) which is a population based prospective study (n = 7076). A

  13. The incidence of ARDS and associated mortality in severe TBI using the Berlin definition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aisiku, Imoigele P; Yamal, Jose-Miguel; Doshi, Pratik; Rubin, Maria Laura; Benoit, Julia S; Hannay, Julia; Tilley, Barbara C; Gopinath, Shankar; Robertson, Claudia S

    2016-02-01

    The incidence of adult respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) in severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) is poorly reported. Recently, a new definition for ARDS was proposed, the Berlin definition. The percentage of patients represented by TBI in the Berlin criteria study is limited. This study describes the incidence and associated mortality of ARDS in TBI patients. The study was an analysis of the safety of erythropoietin administration and transfusion threshold on the incidence of ARDS in severe TBI patients. Three reviewers independently assessed all patients enrolled in the study for acute lung injury/ARDS using the Berlin and the American-European Consensus Conference (AECC) definitions. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to assess the relationship between ARDS and mortality and 6-month Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS) score. Two hundred patients were enrolled in the study. Of the patients, 21% (41 of 200) and 26% (52 of 200) developed ARDS using the AECC and Berlin definitions, respectively, with a median time of 3 days (interquartile range, 3) after injury. ARDS by either definition was associated with increased mortality (p = 0.04) but not with differences in functional outcome as measured by the GOS score at 6 months. Adjusted analysis using the Berlin criteria showed an increased mortality associated with ADS (p = 0.01). Severe TBI is associated with an incidence of ARDS ranging from 20% to 25%. The incidence is comparable between the Berlin and AECC definitions. ARDS is associated with increased mortality in severe TBI patients, but further studies are needed to validate these findings. Epidemiologic study, level II.

  14. Exact 2-point function in Hermitian matrix model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morozov, A.; Shakirov, Sh.

    2009-01-01

    J. Harer and D. Zagier have found a strikingly simple generating function [1,2] for exact (all-genera) 1-point correlators in the Gaussian Hermitian matrix model. In this paper we generalize their result to 2-point correlators, using Toda integrability of the model. Remarkably, this exact 2-point correlation function turns out to be an elementary function - arctangent. Relation to the standard 2-point resolvents is pointed out. Some attempts of generalization to 3-point and higher functions are described.

  15. Incidents with hazardous radiation sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schoenhacker, Stefan

    2016-01-01

    Incidents with hazardous radiation sources can occur in any country, even those without nuclear facilities. Preparedness for such incidents is supposed to fulfill globally agreed minimum standards. Incidents are categorized in incidents with licensed handling of radiation sources as for material testing, transport accidents of hazardous radiation sources, incidents with radionuclide batteries, incidents with satellites containing radioactive inventory, incidents wit not licensed handling of illegally acquired hazardous radiation sources. The emergency planning in Austria includes a differentiation according to the consequences: incidents with release of radioactive materials resulting in restricted contamination, incidents with release of radioactive materials resulting in local contamination, and incidents with the hazard of e@nhanced exposure due to the radiation source.

  16. Simulating traffic for incident management and ITS investment decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    1998-08-01

    UTPS-type models were designed to adequately support planning activities typical of the 1960s and 1970s. However, these packages were not designed to model intelligent transportation systems (ITS) and support incident management planning. To ov...

  17. Zhang functions and various models

    CERN Document Server

    Zhang, Yunong

    2015-01-01

    This book focuses on solving different types of time-varying problems. It presents various Zhang dynamics (ZD) models by defining various Zhang functions (ZFs) in real and complex domains. It then provides theoretical analyses of such ZD models and illustrates their results. It also uses simulations to substantiate their efficacy and show the feasibility of the presented ZD approach (i.e., different ZFs leading to different ZD models), which is further applied to the repetitive motion planning (RMP) of redundant robots, showing its application potential.

  18. Active lifestyle protects against incident low back pain in seniors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hartvigsen, Jan; Christensen, Kaare

    2007-01-01

    STUDY DESIGN: Prospective cohort study of twins. OBJECTIVES: To investigate associations between physical activity, physical function, and incident low back pain (LBP) in an elderly population. SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA: The relationship between an active lifestyle and LBP in seniors is unknown...... to be an important factor affecting whether participants remained engaged in strenuous physical activity at baseline and follow-up or vice versa. CONCLUSIONS: Strenuous physical activity at least once a week is protective for incident LBP in seniors....

  19. Incident spectrum determination for time-of-flight neutron powder diffraction data analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hodges, J. P.

    1998-01-01

    Accurate characterization of the incident neutron spectrum is an important requirement for precise Rietveld analysis of time-of-flight powder neutron diffraction data. Without an accurate incident spectrum the calculated model for the measured relative intensities of individual Bragg reflections will possess systematic errors. We describe a method for obtaining an accurate numerical incident spectrum using data from a transmitted beam monitor

  20. Serious hemorrhages after ischemic stroke or TIA - Incidence, mortality, and predictors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ögren, Joachim; Irewall, Anna-Lotta; Söderström, Lars; Mooe, Thomas

    2018-01-01

    Data are lacking on the risk and impact of a serious hemorrhage on the prognosis after ischemic stroke (IS) or transient ischemic attack (TIA). We aimed to estimate the incidence of serious hemorrhage, analyze the impact on mortality, and identify predictors of hemorrhage after discharge from IS or TIA. All patients admitted to Östersund Hospital for an IS or TIA in 2010-2013 were included (n = 1528, mean age: 75.1 years). Serious hemorrhages were identified until 31st December 2015. Incidence rates were calculated. The impact on mortality (stratified by functional level) was determined with Kaplan-Meier analysis. Non-parametric estimation under the assumption of competing risk was performed to assess the cumulative incidence and predictors of serious hemorrhages. The incidence rates of serious (n = 113) and intracranial hemorrhages (n = 45) after discharge from IS and TIA were 2.48% and 0.96% per year at risk, respectively. Patients with modified Rankin Scale (mRS) scores of 3-5 exhibited 58.9% mortality during follow-up and those with mRS scores of 0-2 exhibited 18.4% mortality. A serious hemorrhage did not affect mortality in patients with impaired functional status, but it increased the risk of death in patients with mRS scores of 0-2. Hypertension was associated with increased risk of serious hemorrhage. We found that, after discharge from an IS or TIA, serious hemorrhages were fairly common. Impairments in function were associated with high mortality, but serious hemorrhages only increased the risk of mortality in patients with no or slight disability. Improved hypertension treatment may decrease the risk of serious hemorrhage, but in patients with low functional status, poor survival makes secondary prevention challenging.

  1. Mathematical modeling and visualization of functional neuroimages

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Peter Mondrup

    This dissertation presents research results regarding mathematical modeling in the context of the analysis of functional neuroimages. Specifically, the research focuses on pattern-based analysis methods that recently have become popular analysis tools within the neuroimaging community. Such methods...... neuroimaging data sets are characterized by relatively few data observations in a high dimensional space. The process of building models in such data sets often requires strong regularization. Often, the degree of model regularization is chosen in order to maximize prediction accuracy. We focus on the relative...... be carefully selected, so that the model and its visualization enhance our ability to interpret brain function. The second part concerns interpretation of nonlinear models and procedures for extraction of ‘brain maps’ from nonlinear kernel models. We assess the performance of the sensitivity map as means...

  2. The impact of body mass index (BMI variation on mortality of incident elderly patients on peritoneal dialysis: a joint model analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcia Regina Gianotti Franco

    Full Text Available Abstract Introduction: Data on impact of high body mass index (BMI on mortality of patients on peritoneal dialysis (PD, especially among elderly, are inconsistent. Objective: To evaluate impact of BMI on cohort of incident elderly PD patients over time. Methods: Prospective multicenter cohort study (December / 2004-October/2007 with 674 patients. Socio-demographic and clinical data evaluated with patients followed until death, transfer to hemodialysis (HD, recovery of renal function, loss of follow-up or transplant. Patients were divided into incident on renal replacement therapy (RRT for PD (PD first: 230 and transferred from hemodialysis (HD first: 444. Analysis was performed comparing these two groups using chi-square or Kruskal Wallis. Similar analysis was used to compare patients on automated peritoneal dialysis (APD vs. continuous ambulatory peritoneal dialysis (CAPD. Data were compared between patients according to BMI by ANOVA, Kruskal Wallis or chi-square. For analysis of survival, Kaplan Meier method was used and to adjust confounding variables, Cox regression proportional hazard. Joint model for longitudinal and time-dependent data was conducted, assessing impact that a longitudinal variable displays on time of survival. Results: Malnourished patients (76.79 ± 7.53 years were older (p < 0.0001 with higher percentage of death (44.6%, p = 0.001; diabetes mellitus showed high prevalence in obese patients (68%, p < 0.0001; higher blood pressure levels (p = 0.002 were present in obese and overweight patients. Conclusions: Increased BMI variation over time proved to be a protective factor, with a decrease of about 1% in risk of death for every BMI unit earned.

  3. Structure functions in the chiral bag model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanjose, V.; Vento, V.; Centro Mixto CSIC/Valencia Univ., Valencia

    1989-01-01

    We calculate the structure functions of an isoscalar nuclear target for the deep inelastic scattering by leptons in an extended version of the chiral bag model which incorporates the qanti q structure of the pions in the cloud. Bjorken scaling and Regge behavior are satisfied. The model calculation reproduces the low-x behavior of the data but fails to explain the medium- to large-x behavior. Evolution of the quark structure functions seem inevitable to attempt a connection between the low-energy models and the high-energy behavior of quantum chromodynamics. (orig.)

  4. Structure functions in the chiral bag model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sanjose, V.; Vento, V.

    1989-07-13

    We calculate the structure functions of an isoscalar nuclear target for the deep inelastic scattering by leptons in an extended version of the chiral bag model which incorporates the qanti q structure of the pions in the cloud. Bjorken scaling and Regge behavior are satisfied. The model calculation reproduces the low-x behavior of the data but fails to explain the medium- to large-x behavior. Evolution of the quark structure functions seem inevitable to attempt a connection between the low-energy models and the high-energy behavior of quantum chromodynamics. (orig.).

  5. Hazard identification based on plant functional modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rasmussen, B.; Whetton, C.

    1993-10-01

    A major objective of the present work is to provide means for representing a process plant as a socio-technical system, so as to allow hazard identification at a high level. The method includes technical, human and organisational aspects and is intended to be used for plant level hazard identification so as to identify critical areas and the need for further analysis using existing methods. The first part of the method is the preparation of a plant functional model where a set of plant functions link together hardware, software, operations, work organisation and other safety related aspects of the plant. The basic principle of the functional modelling is that any aspect of the plant can be represented by an object (in the sense that this term is used in computer science) based upon an Intent (or goal); associated with each Intent are Methods, by which the Intent is realized, and Constraints, which limit the Intent. The Methods and Constraints can themselves be treated as objects and decomposed into lower-level Intents (hence the procedure is known as functional decomposition) so giving rise to a hierarchical, object-oriented structure. The plant level hazard identification is carried out on the plant functional model using the Concept Hazard Analysis method. In this, the user will be supported by checklists and keywords and the analysis is structured by pre-defined worksheets. The preparation of the plant functional model and the performance of the hazard identification can be carried out manually or with computer support. (au) (4 tabs., 10 ills., 7 refs.)

  6. Annotation and retrieval system of CAD models based on functional semantics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Zhansong; Tian, Ling; Duan, Wenrui

    2014-11-01

    CAD model retrieval based on functional semantics is more significant than content-based 3D model retrieval during the mechanical conceptual design phase. However, relevant research is still not fully discussed. Therefore, a functional semantic-based CAD model annotation and retrieval method is proposed to support mechanical conceptual design and design reuse, inspire designer creativity through existing CAD models, shorten design cycle, and reduce costs. Firstly, the CAD model functional semantic ontology is constructed to formally represent the functional semantics of CAD models and describe the mechanical conceptual design space comprehensively and consistently. Secondly, an approach to represent CAD models as attributed adjacency graphs(AAG) is proposed. In this method, the geometry and topology data are extracted from STEP models. On the basis of AAG, the functional semantics of CAD models are annotated semi-automatically by matching CAD models that contain the partial features of which functional semantics have been annotated manually, thereby constructing CAD Model Repository that supports model retrieval based on functional semantics. Thirdly, a CAD model retrieval algorithm that supports multi-function extended retrieval is proposed to explore more potential creative design knowledge in the semantic level. Finally, a prototype system, called Functional Semantic-based CAD Model Annotation and Retrieval System(FSMARS), is implemented. A case demonstrates that FSMARS can successfully botain multiple potential CAD models that conform to the desired function. The proposed research addresses actual needs and presents a new way to acquire CAD models in the mechanical conceptual design phase.

  7. A Generic Modeling Process to Support Functional Fault Model Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maul, William A.; Hemminger, Joseph A.; Oostdyk, Rebecca; Bis, Rachael A.

    2016-01-01

    Functional fault models (FFMs) are qualitative representations of a system's failure space that are used to provide a diagnostic of the modeled system. An FFM simulates the failure effect propagation paths within a system between failure modes and observation points. These models contain a significant amount of information about the system including the design, operation and off nominal behavior. The development and verification of the models can be costly in both time and resources. In addition, models depicting similar components can be distinct, both in appearance and function, when created individually, because there are numerous ways of representing the failure space within each component. Generic application of FFMs has the advantages of software code reuse: reduction of time and resources in both development and verification, and a standard set of component models from which future system models can be generated with common appearance and diagnostic performance. This paper outlines the motivation to develop a generic modeling process for FFMs at the component level and the effort to implement that process through modeling conventions and a software tool. The implementation of this generic modeling process within a fault isolation demonstration for NASA's Advanced Ground System Maintenance (AGSM) Integrated Health Management (IHM) project is presented and the impact discussed.

  8. Arsenic Exposure, Arsenic Metabolism, and Incident Diabetes in the Strong Heart Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howard, Barbara V.; Umans, Jason G.; Gribble, Matthew O.; Best, Lyle G.; Francesconi, Kevin A.; Goessler, Walter; Lee, Elisa; Guallar, Eliseo; Navas-Acien, Ana

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVE Little is known about arsenic metabolism in diabetes development. We investigated the prospective associations of low-moderate arsenic exposure and arsenic metabolism with diabetes incidence in the Strong Heart Study. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS A total of 1,694 diabetes-free participants aged 45–75 years were recruited in 1989–1991 and followed through 1998–1999. We used the proportions of urine inorganic arsenic (iAs), monomethylarsonate (MMA), and dimethylarsinate (DMA) over their sum (expressed as iAs%, MMA%, and DMA%) as the biomarkers of arsenic metabolism. Diabetes was defined as fasting glucose ≥126 mg/dL, 2-h glucose ≥200 mg/dL, self-reported diabetes history, or self-reported use of antidiabetic medications. RESULTS Over 11,263.2 person-years of follow-up, 396 participants developed diabetes. Using the leave-one-out approach to model the dynamics of arsenic metabolism, we found that lower MMA% was associated with higher diabetes incidence. The hazard ratios (95% CI) of diabetes incidence for a 5% increase in MMA% were 0.77 (0.63–0.93) and 0.82 (0.73–0.92) when iAs% and DMA%, respectively, were left out of the model. DMA% was associated with higher diabetes incidence only when MMA% decreased (left out of the model) but not when iAs% decreased. iAs% was also associated with higher diabetes incidence when MMA% decreased. The association between MMA% and diabetes incidence was similar by age, sex, study site, obesity, and urine iAs concentrations. CONCLUSIONS Arsenic metabolism, particularly lower MMA%, was prospectively associated with increased incidence of diabetes. Research is needed to evaluate whether arsenic metabolism is related to diabetes incidence per se or through its close connections with one-carbon metabolism. PMID:25583752

  9. Estimation of National Colorectal-Cancer Incidence Using Claims Databases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quantin, C.; Benzenine, E.; Hagi, M.; Auverlot, B.; Cottenet, J.; Binquet, M.; Compain, D.

    2012-01-01

    The aim of the study was to assess the accuracy of the colorectal-cancer incidence estimated from administrative data. Methods. We selected potential incident colorectal-cancer cases in 2004-2005 French administrative data, using two alternative algorithms. The first was based only on diagnostic and procedure codes, whereas the second considered the past history of the patient. Results of both methods were assessed against two corresponding local cancer registries, acting as “gold standards.” We then constructed a multivariable regression model to estimate the corrected total number of incident colorectal-cancer cases from the whole national administrative database. Results. The first algorithm provided an estimated local incidence very close to that given by the regional registries (646 versus 645 incident cases) and had good sensitivity and positive predictive values (about 75% for both). The second algorithm overestimated the incidence by about 50% and had a poor positive predictive value of about 60%. The estimation of national incidence obtained by the first algorithm differed from that observed in 14 registries by only 2.34%. Conclusion. This study shows the usefulness of administrative databases for countries with no national cancer registry and suggests a method for correcting the estimates provided by these data.

  10. The association between the incidence of postmenopausal breast cancer and concentrations at street-level of nitrogen dioxide and ultrafine particles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldberg, Mark S; Labrèche, France; Weichenthal, Scott; Lavigne, Eric; Valois, Marie-France; Hatzopoulou, Marianne; Van Ryswyk, Keith; Shekarrizfard, Maryam; Villeneuve, Paul J; Crouse, Daniel; Parent, Marie-Élise

    2017-10-01

    There is scant information as to whether traffic-related air pollution is associated with the incidence of breast cancer. Nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) and ultrafine particles (UFPs, variations in traffic-related air pollution and may also be associated with incidence. We conducted a population-based, case-control study of street-level concentrations of NO 2 and UFPs and incident postmenopausal breast cancer in Montreal, Canada. Incident cases were identified between 2008 and 2011 from all but one hospital that treated breast cancer in the Montreal area. Population controls were identified from provincial electoral lists of Montreal residents and frequency-matched to cases using 5-year age groups. Concentrations of NO 2 and UFPs were estimated using two separate land-use regression models. Exposures were assigned to residential locations at the time of recruitment, and we identified residential histories of women who had lived in these residences for 10 years or more. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated using logistic regression models adjusting for individual-level and ecological covariates. We assessed the functional form of NO 2 and UFP exposures using natural cubic splines. We found that the functional form of the response functions between incident postmenopausal breast cancer and concentrations of NO 2 and UFPs were consistent with linearity. For NO 2 , we found increasing risks of breast cancer for all subjects combined and stronger associations when analyses were restricted to those women who had lived at their current address for 10 years or more. Specifically, the OR, adjusted for personal covariates, per increase in the interquartile range (IQR=3.75 ppb) of NO 2 was 1.08 (95%CI: 0.92-1.27). For women living in their homes for 10 years or more, the adjusted OR was 1.17 (95%CI: 0.93-1.46; IQR=3.84 ppb); for those not living at that home 10 years before the study, it was 0.93 (95%CI: 0.64, 1.36; IQR=3.65 ppb). For UFPs, the ORs were

  11. Quark fragmentation function and the nonlinear chiral quark model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhu, Z.K.

    1993-01-01

    The scaling law of the fragmentation function has been proved in this paper. With that, we show that low-P T quark fragmentation function can be studied as a low energy physocs in the light-cone coordinate frame. We therefore use the nonlinear chiral quark model which is able to study the low energy physics under scale Λ CSB to study such a function. Meanwhile the formalism for studying the quark fragmentation function has been established. The nonlinear chiral quark model is quantized on the light-front. We then use old-fashioned perturbation theory to study the quark fragmentation function. Our first order result for such a function shows in agreement with the phenomenological model study of e + e - jet. The probability for u,d pair formation in the e + e - jet from our calculation is also in agreement with the phenomenological model results

  12. Wheelchair incidents

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Drongelen AW van; Roszek B; Hilbers-Modderman ESM; Kallewaard M; Wassenaar C; LGM

    2002-01-01

    This RIVM study was performed to gain insight into wheelchair-related incidents with powered and manual wheelchairs reported to the USA FDA, the British MDA and the Dutch Center for Quality and Usability Research of Technical Aids (KBOH). The data in the databases do not indicate that incidents with

  13. Theory and analysis of a large field polarization imaging system with obliquely incident light.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Xiaotian; Jin, Weiqi; Li, Li; Wang, Xia; Qiu, Su; Liu, Jing

    2018-02-05

    Polarization imaging technology provides information about not only the irradiance of a target but also the polarization degree and angle of polarization, which indicates extensive application potential. However, polarization imaging theory is based on paraxial optics. When a beam of obliquely incident light passes an analyser, the direction of light propagation is not perpendicular to the surface of the analyser and the applicability of the traditional paraxial optical polarization imaging theory is challenged. This paper investigates a theoretical model of a polarization imaging system with obliquely incident light and establishes a polarization imaging transmission model with a large field of obliquely incident light. In an imaging experiment with an integrating sphere light source and rotatable polarizer, the polarization imaging transmission model is verified and analysed for two cases of natural light and linearly polarized light incidence. Although the results indicate that the theoretical model is consistent with the experimental results, the theoretical model distinctly differs from the traditional paraxial approximation model. The results prove the accuracy and necessity of the theoretical model and the theoretical guiding significance for theoretical and systematic research of large field polarization imaging.

  14. Incidence of silicosis among ceramic workers in central Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cavariani, F; Di Pietro, A; Miceli, M; Forastiere, F; Biggeri, A; Scavalli, P; Petti, A; Borgia, P

    1995-01-01

    The incidence of radiological silicosis was studied among 2480 male workers employed in the ceramics industry. The subjects entered the surveillance program during 1974-1987 and were followed through 1991 with annual chest radiographs. The cumulative risk of silicosis (1/1 or greater; p,q,r) reached 48% (95% confidence interval 41.5-54.9) after 30 years of employment. In a multivariate Cox's proportional hazards model, the effect of duration of exposure increased linearly up to the category of 25-29 years; an extremely high hazard risk of 14.6 was found among those with 30 years or more of exposure in comparison with those employed 10 years or less. Smoking habit also significantly contributed to the model, although its role in the biological process is unclear. In conclusion, exposure to silica dust has been associated with a high incidence of silicosis among ceramics workers. The risk estimates are consistent with the recent findings of silicosis incidence among South African gold miners.

  15. Modelling of Functional States during Saccharomyces cerevisiae Fed-batch Cultivation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stoyan Tzonkov

    2005-04-01

    Full Text Available An implementation of functional state approach for modelling of yeast fed-batch cultivation is presented in this paper. Using of functional state modelling approach aims to overcome the main disadvantage of using global process model, namely complex model structure and big number of model parameters, which complicate the model simulation and parameter estimation. This approach has computational advantages, such as the possibility to use the estimated values from the previous state as starting values for estimation of parameters of a new state. The functional state modelling approach is applied here for fedbatch cultivation of Saccharomyces cerevisiae. Four functional states are recognised and parameter estimation of local models is presented as well.

  16. Predictors of incident heart failure in patients after an acute coronary syndrome: The LIPID heart failure risk-prediction model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Driscoll, Andrea; Barnes, Elizabeth H; Blankenberg, Stefan; Colquhoun, David M; Hunt, David; Nestel, Paul J; Stewart, Ralph A; West, Malcolm J; White, Harvey D; Simes, John; Tonkin, Andrew

    2017-12-01

    Coronary heart disease is a major cause of heart failure. Availability of risk-prediction models that include both clinical parameters and biomarkers is limited. We aimed to develop such a model for prediction of incident heart failure. A multivariable risk-factor model was developed for prediction of first occurrence of heart failure death or hospitalization. A simplified risk score was derived that enabled subjects to be grouped into categories of 5-year risk varying from 20%. Among 7101 patients from the LIPID study (84% male), with median age 61years (interquartile range 55-67years), 558 (8%) died or were hospitalized because of heart failure. Older age, history of claudication or diabetes mellitus, body mass index>30kg/m 2 , LDL-cholesterol >2.5mmol/L, heart rate>70 beats/min, white blood cell count, and the nature of the qualifying acute coronary syndrome (myocardial infarction or unstable angina) were associated with an increase in heart failure events. Coronary revascularization was associated with a lower event rate. Incident heart failure increased with higher concentrations of B-type natriuretic peptide >50ng/L, cystatin C>0.93nmol/L, D-dimer >273nmol/L, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein >4.8nmol/L, and sensitive troponin I>0.018μg/L. Addition of biomarkers to the clinical risk model improved the model's C statistic from 0.73 to 0.77. The net reclassification improvement incorporating biomarkers into the clinical model using categories of 5-year risk was 23%. Adding a multibiomarker panel to conventional parameters markedly improved discrimination and risk classification for future heart failure events. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Quark fragmentation functions in NJL-jet model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bentz, Wolfgang; Matevosyan, Hrayr; Thomas, Anthony

    2014-09-01

    We report on our studies of quark fragmentation functions in the Nambu-Jona-Lasinio (NJL) - jet model. The results of Monte-Carlo simulations for the fragmentation functions to mesons and nucleons, as well as to pion and kaon pairs (dihadron fragmentation functions) are presented. The important role of intermediate vector meson resonances for those semi-inclusive deep inelastic production processes is emphasized. Our studies are very relevant for the extraction of transverse momentum dependent quark distribution functions from measured scattering cross sections. We report on our studies of quark fragmentation functions in the Nambu-Jona-Lasinio (NJL) - jet model. The results of Monte-Carlo simulations for the fragmentation functions to mesons and nucleons, as well as to pion and kaon pairs (dihadron fragmentation functions) are presented. The important role of intermediate vector meson resonances for those semi-inclusive deep inelastic production processes is emphasized. Our studies are very relevant for the extraction of transverse momentum dependent quark distribution functions from measured scattering cross sections. Supported by Grant in Aid for Scientific Research, Japanese Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Project No. 20168769.

  18. A novel approach for modeling malaria incidence using complex categorical household data: The minimum message length (MML method applied to Indonesian data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gerhard Visser

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available We investigated the application of a Minimum Message Length (MML modeling approach to identify the simplest model that would explain two target malaria incidence variables: incidence in the short term and on the average longer term, in two areas in Indonesia, based on a range of ecological variables including environmental and socio-economic ones. The approach is suitable for dealing with a variety of problems such as complexity and where there are missing values in the data. It can detect weak relations, is resistant to overfittingand can show the way in which many variables, working together, contribute to explaining malaria incidence. This last point is a major strength of the method as it allows many variables to be analysed. Data were obtained at household level by questionnaire for villages in West Timor and Central Java. Data were collected on 26 variables in nine categories: stratum (a village-level variable based on the API/AMI categories, ecology, occupation, preventative measures taken, health care facilities, the immediate environment, household characteristics, socio-economic status and perception of malaria cause. Several models were used and the simplest (best model, that is the one with the minimum message length was selected for each area. The results showed that consistent predictors of malaria included combinations of ecology (coastal, preventative (clean backyard and environment (mosquito breeding place, garden and rice cultivation. The models also showed that most of the other variables were not good predictors and this is discussed in the paper. We conclude that the method has potential for identifying simple predictors of malaria and that it could be used to focus malaria management on combinations of variables rather than relying on single ones that may not be consistently reliable.

  19. Predicting risk for portal vein thrombosis in acute pancreatitis patients: A comparison of radical basis function artificial neural network and logistic regression models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fei, Yang; Hu, Jian; Gao, Kun; Tu, Jianfeng; Li, Wei-Qin; Wang, Wei

    2017-06-01

    To construct a radical basis function (RBF) artificial neural networks (ANNs) model to predict the incidence of acute pancreatitis (AP)-induced portal vein thrombosis. The analysis included 353 patients with AP who had admitted between January 2011 and December 2015. RBF ANNs model and logistic regression model were constructed based on eleven factors relevant to AP respectively. Statistical indexes were used to evaluate the value of the prediction in two models. The predict sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and accuracy by RBF ANNs model for PVT were 73.3%, 91.4%, 68.8%, 93.0% and 87.7%, respectively. There were significant differences between the RBF ANNs and logistic regression models in these parameters (Plogistic regression model. D-dimer, AMY, Hct and PT were important prediction factors of approval for AP-induced PVT. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Prediction model for prevalence and incidence of advanced age-related macular degeneration based on genetic, demographic, and environmental variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seddon, Johanna M; Reynolds, Robyn; Maller, Julian; Fagerness, Jesen A; Daly, Mark J; Rosner, Bernard

    2009-05-01

    The joint effects of genetic, ocular, and environmental variables were evaluated and predictive models for prevalence and incidence of AMD were assessed. Participants in the multicenter Age-Related Eye Disease Study (AREDS) were included in a prospective evaluation of 1446 individuals, of which 279 progressed to advanced AMD (geographic atrophy or neovascular disease) and 1167 did not progress during 6.3 years of follow-up. For prevalent AMD, 509 advanced cases were compared with 222 controls. Covariates for the incidence analysis included age, sex, education, smoking, body mass index (BMI), baseline AMD grade, and the AREDS vitamin-mineral treatment assignment. DNA specimens were evaluated for six variants in five genes related to AMD. Unconditional logistic regression analyses were performed for prevalent and incident advanced AMD. An algorithm was developed and receiver operating characteristic curves and C statistics were calculated to assess the predictive ability of risk scores to discriminate progressors from nonprogressors. All genetic polymorphisms were independently related to prevalence of advanced AMD, controlling for genetic factors, smoking, BMI, and AREDS treatment. Multivariate odds ratios (ORs) were 3.5 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.7-7.1) for CFH Y402H; 3.7 (95% CI, 1.6-8.4) for CFH rs1410996; 25.4 (95% CI, 8.6-75.1) for LOC387715 A69S (ARMS2); 0.3 (95% CI, 0.1-0.7) for C2 E318D; 0.3 (95% CI, 0.1-0.5) for CFB; and 3.6 (95% CI, 1.4-9.4) for C3 R102G, comparing the homozygous risk/protective genotypes to the referent genotypes. For incident AMD, all these variants except CFB were significantly related to progression to advanced AMD, after controlling for baseline AMD grade and other factors, with ORs from 1.8 to 4.0 for presence of two risk alleles and 0.4 for the protective allele. An interaction was seen between CFH402H and treatment, after controlling for all genotypes. Smoking was independently related to AMD, with a multiplicative joint

  1. The relationship between the microwave radar cross section and both wind speed and stress: Model function studies using Frontal Air-Sea Interaction Experiment data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weissman, David E.; Davidson, Kenneth L.; Brown, Robert A.; Friehe, Carl A.; Li, Fuk

    1994-01-01

    The Frontal Air-Sea Interaction Experiment (FASINEX) provided a unique data set with coincident airborne scatterometer measurements of the ocean surface radar cross section (RCS)(at Ku band) and near-surface wind and wind stress. These data have been analyzed to study new model functions which relate wind speed and surface friction velocity (square root of the kinematic wind stress) to the radar cross section and to better understand the processes in the boundary layer that have a strong influence on the radar backscatter. Studies of data from FASINEX indicate that the RCS has a different relation to the friction velocity than to the wind speed. The difference between the RCS models using these two variables depends on the polarization and the incidence angle. The radar data have been acquired from the Jet Propulsion Laboratory airborne scatterometer. These data span 10 different flight days. Stress measurements were inferred from shipboard instruments and from aircraft flying at low altitudes, closely following the scatterometer. Wide ranges of radar incidence angles and environmental conditions needed to fully develop algorithms are available from this experiment.

  2. SU-E-T-494: Influence of Proton Track-Cell Nucleus Incidence Angle On Relative Biological Effectiveness

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pater, P; Backstrom, G; Enger, S; Seuntjens, J; El Naqa, I [McGill University, Montreal, Quebec (Canada); Villegas, F; Ahnesjo, A [Uppsala University, Uppsala (Sweden)

    2015-06-15

    Purpose: To explain a Monte Carlo (MC) simulation artifact whereby differences in relative biological effectiveness (RBE) in the induction of initial double strand breaks are observed as a function of the proton track incidence angles in a geometric cell nucleus model. Secondly, to offer an alternative isotropic irradiation procedure to mitigate this effect. Methods: MC tracks of 1 MeV protons were generated in an event-by-event mode. They were overlaid on a cylindrical model of a cell nucleus containing 6×109 nucleotide base pairs. The tracks incidence angle θ with respect to the cell nucleus’s axis was varied in 10 degrees intervals, each time generating one hundred fractions of ∼2 Gy. Strand breaks were scored in the modeled DNA sugar-phosphate groups and further sub-classified into single or double strand breaks (ssbs or dsbs). For each angle, an RBE for the induction of initial dsbs with reference to Co-60 was calculated. Results: Our results show significant angular dependencies of RBE, with maximum values for incidence angles parallel to the nucleus central axis. Further examination shows that the higher cross-sections for the creation of dsbs is due to the preferential alignment of tracks with geometrical sub-parts of the cell nucleus model, especially the nucleosomes containing the sugar-phosphate groups. To alleviate the impact of this simulation artifact, an average RBE was calculated with a procedure based on a weighted sampling of the angular data. Conclusion: This work demonstrates a possible numerical artifact in estimated RBE if the influence of the particle incidence angle is not correctly taken into account. A correction procedure is presented to better conform the simulations to real-life experimental conditions. We would like to acknowledge support from the Fonds de recherche du Quebec Sante (FRQS), from the CREATE Medical Physics Research Training Network grant (number 432290) of NSERC, support from NSERC under grants RGPIN 397711-11 and

  3. Above-surface neutralization of multicharged ions incident on a cesiated Au target

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meyer, F.W.; Hughes, I.G.; Overbury, S.H.

    1992-01-01

    The critical distance above the surface at which conduction band electrons can start to neutralize incident multicharged projectiles by classical overbarrier transitions is inversely proportional to the metal work function. By varying the amount of Cs coverage on a Au single crystal target between O and 1 monolayers, the authors have been able to verify an up to 3.3 eV decrease of the surface work function, corresponding to more than a factor of two decrease relative to that tabulated for clean Au. This change should result in more than doubling the above-surface interaction time. At larger above-surface distances, however, the electron capture most likely occurs into higher principal quantum numbers of the projectile. The subsequent de-excitation cascade by which inner shells of the projectiles are populated may thus require more time. The authors have investigated the overall effect that lowering the work function has on the above-surface component of projectile K-Auger electron emission for grazing incidence N 6+ ions interacting with cesiated Au single crystals. They will present results showing that an enhancement of this component is indeed observed, and that it is strongly dependent on incidence angle

  4. Application of the weighted total field-scattering field technique to 3D-PSTD light scattering model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Shuai; Gao, Taichang; Liu, Lei; Li, Hao; Chen, Ming; Yang, Bo

    2018-04-01

    PSTD (Pseudo Spectral Time Domain) is an excellent model for the light scattering simulation of nonspherical aerosol particles. However, due to the particularity of its discretization form of the Maxwell's equations, the traditional Total Field/Scattering Field (TF/SF) technique for FDTD (Finite Differential Time Domain) is not applicable to PSTD, and the time-consuming pure scattering field technique is mainly applied to introduce the incident wave. To this end, the weighted TF/SF technique proposed by X. Gao is generalized and applied to the 3D-PSTD scattering model. Using this technique, the incident light can be effectively introduced by modifying the electromagnetic components in an inserted connecting region between the total field and the scattering field region with incident terms, where the incident terms are obtained by weighting the incident field by a window function. To optimally determine the thickness of connection region and the window function type for PSTD calculations, their influence on the modeling accuracy is firstly analyzed. To further verify the effectiveness and advantages of the weighted TF/SF technique, the improved PSTD model is validated against the PSTD model equipped with pure scattering field technique in both calculation accuracy and efficiency. The results show that, the performance of PSTD seems to be not sensitive to variation of window functions. The number of the connection layer required decreases with the increasing of spatial resolution, where for spatial resolution of 24 grids per wavelength, a 6-layer region is thick enough. The scattering phase matrices and integral scattering parameters obtained by the improved PSTD show an excellent consistency with those well-tested models for spherical and nonspherical particles, illustrating that the weighted TF/SF technique can introduce the incident precisely. The weighted TF/SF technique shows higher computational efficiency than pure scattering technique.

  5. The flooding incident at the Aagesta pressurized heavy water nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dahlgren, C.

    1996-03-01

    This work is an independent investigation of the consequences of the flooding incident at the Aagesta HPWR, Stockholm in May 1969. The basis for the report is an incident in which, due to short circuits in the wiring because of flooding water, the ECCS is momentarily subjected to a pressure much higher than designed for. The hypothetical scenario analyzed here is the case in which the ECCS breaks due to the high pressure. As a consequence of the break, the pressure and the water level in the reactor vessel decrease. The report is divided into three parts; First the Aagesta HPWR is described as well as the chronology of the incident, an analysis of the effects of a hypothetical break in the ECCS is then developed. The second part is a scoping analysis of the incident, modeling the pressure decrease and mass flow rate out of the break. The heat-up of the core, and the core degradation was modeled as well. The third part is formed by a RELAP5/MOD3.1 modeling of the Aagesta HPWR. 18 refs

  6. A Suitable Approach to Estimate Cancer Incidence in Area without Cancer Registry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mitton, N.; Colonna, M.; Colonna, M.

    2011-01-01

    Objective. Use of cancer cases from registries and PMSI claims database to estimate Department-specific incidence of four major cancers. Methods. Case extraction used principal diagnosis then surgery codes. PMSI cases/registry cases ratios for 2004 were modelled then Department-specific incidence for 2007 estimated using these ratios and 2007 PMSI cases. Results. For 2007, only colon-rectum and breast cancer estimations were satisfactorily validated for infra national incidence not ovary and kidney cancers. For breast, the estimated national incidence was 50,578 cases and the incidence rate 98.6 cases per 100,000 person per year. For colon-rectum, incidence was 21,172 in men versus 18,327 in women and the incidence rate 38 per 100,000 versus 24.8. For ovary, the estimated incidence was 4,637 and the rate 8.6 per 100,000. For kidney, incidence was 6,775 in men versus 3,273 in women and the rate 13.3 per 100.000 versus 5.2. Conclusion. Incidence estimation using PMSI patient identifiers proved encouraging though still dependent on the assumption of uniform cancer treatments and coding.

  7. The Incidence of Unemployment: Identifying Quits and Layoffs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Helena Skyt; Rosholm, Michael

    1997-01-01

    We analyse what determines the incidence of unemployment among Danish employees by estimation of a logit model for becoming unemployed. Our data is incomplete in the sense that we do not observe whether a transition was caused by the person quitting or being laid off, so we apply the EM-algorithm......We analyse what determines the incidence of unemployment among Danish employees by estimation of a logit model for becoming unemployed. Our data is incomplete in the sense that we do not observe whether a transition was caused by the person quitting or being laid off, so we apply the EM......-algorithm to this problem. The models are extended to account for the panel data structure of the data set by including random effects. We use exclusion restrictions to identify quits and lay offs. We find many quitters among young and old women but only few among men....

  8. HIV treatment as prevention: systematic comparison of mathematical models of the potential impact of antiretroviral therapy on HIV incidence in South Africa.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeffrey W Eaton

    Full Text Available Many mathematical models have investigated the impact of expanding access to antiretroviral therapy (ART on new HIV infections. Comparing results and conclusions across models is challenging because models have addressed slightly different questions and have reported different outcome metrics. This study compares the predictions of several mathematical models simulating the same ART intervention programmes to determine the extent to which models agree about the epidemiological impact of expanded ART.Twelve independent mathematical models evaluated a set of standardised ART intervention scenarios in South Africa and reported a common set of outputs. Intervention scenarios systematically varied the CD4 count threshold for treatment eligibility, access to treatment, and programme retention. For a scenario in which 80% of HIV-infected individuals start treatment on average 1 y after their CD4 count drops below 350 cells/µl and 85% remain on treatment after 3 y, the models projected that HIV incidence would be 35% to 54% lower 8 y after the introduction of ART, compared to a counterfactual scenario in which there is no ART. More variation existed in the estimated long-term (38 y reductions in incidence. The impact of optimistic interventions including immediate ART initiation varied widely across models, maintaining substantial uncertainty about the theoretical prospect for elimination of HIV from the population using ART alone over the next four decades. The number of person-years of ART per infection averted over 8 y ranged between 5.8 and 18.7. Considering the actual scale-up of ART in South Africa, seven models estimated that current HIV incidence is 17% to 32% lower than it would have been in the absence of ART. Differences between model assumptions about CD4 decline and HIV transmissibility over the course of infection explained only a modest amount of the variation in model results.Mathematical models evaluating the impact of ART vary

  9. HIV treatment as prevention: systematic comparison of mathematical models of the potential impact of antiretroviral therapy on HIV incidence in South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eaton, Jeffrey W; Johnson, Leigh F; Salomon, Joshua A; Bärnighausen, Till; Bendavid, Eran; Bershteyn, Anna; Bloom, David E; Cambiano, Valentina; Fraser, Christophe; Hontelez, Jan A C; Humair, Salal; Klein, Daniel J; Long, Elisa F; Phillips, Andrew N; Pretorius, Carel; Stover, John; Wenger, Edward A; Williams, Brian G; Hallett, Timothy B

    2012-01-01

    Many mathematical models have investigated the impact of expanding access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) on new HIV infections. Comparing results and conclusions across models is challenging because models have addressed slightly different questions and have reported different outcome metrics. This study compares the predictions of several mathematical models simulating the same ART intervention programmes to determine the extent to which models agree about the epidemiological impact of expanded ART. Twelve independent mathematical models evaluated a set of standardised ART intervention scenarios in South Africa and reported a common set of outputs. Intervention scenarios systematically varied the CD4 count threshold for treatment eligibility, access to treatment, and programme retention. For a scenario in which 80% of HIV-infected individuals start treatment on average 1 y after their CD4 count drops below 350 cells/µl and 85% remain on treatment after 3 y, the models projected that HIV incidence would be 35% to 54% lower 8 y after the introduction of ART, compared to a counterfactual scenario in which there is no ART. More variation existed in the estimated long-term (38 y) reductions in incidence. The impact of optimistic interventions including immediate ART initiation varied widely across models, maintaining substantial uncertainty about the theoretical prospect for elimination of HIV from the population using ART alone over the next four decades. The number of person-years of ART per infection averted over 8 y ranged between 5.8 and 18.7. Considering the actual scale-up of ART in South Africa, seven models estimated that current HIV incidence is 17% to 32% lower than it would have been in the absence of ART. Differences between model assumptions about CD4 decline and HIV transmissibility over the course of infection explained only a modest amount of the variation in model results. Mathematical models evaluating the impact of ART vary substantially in

  10. Increased Incidence of Critical Illness in Psoriasis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marrie, Ruth Ann; Bernstein, Charles N; Peschken, Christine A; Hitchon, Carol A; Chen, Hui; Garland, Allan

    Psoriasis is associated with an increased risk of comorbid disease. Despite the recognition of increased morbidity in psoriasis, the effects on health care utilisation remain incompletely understood. Little is known about the risk of intensive care unit (ICU) admission in persons with psoriasis. To compare the incidence of ICU admission and post-ICU mortality rates in a psoriasis population compared with a matched population without psoriasis. Using population-based administrative data from Manitoba, Canada, we identified 40 930 prevalent cases of psoriasis and an age-, sex-, and geographically matched cohort from the general population (n = 150 210). We compared the incidence of ICU admission between populations using incidence rates and Cox regression models adjusted for age, sex, socioeconomic status, and comorbidity and compared mortality after ICU admission. Among incident psoriasis cases (n = 30 150), the cumulative 10-year incidence of ICU admission was 5.6% (95% confidence interval [CI], 5.3%-5.8%), 21% higher than in the matched cohort (incidence rate ratio, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.15-1.27). In the prevalent psoriasis cohort, crude mortality in the ICU was 11.5% (95% CI, 9.9%-13.0%), 32% higher than observed in the matched population admitted to the ICU (8.7%; 95% CI, 8.3%-9.1%). Mortality rates after ICU admission remained elevated at all time points in the psoriasis cohort compared with the matched cohort. Psoriasis is associated with an increased risk for ICU admission and with an increased risk of mortality post-ICU admission.

  11. Energy in elastic fiber embedded in elastic matrix containing incident SH wave

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, James H., Jr.; Nagem, Raymond J.

    1989-01-01

    A single elastic fiber embedded in an infinite elastic matrix is considered. An incident plane SH wave is assumed in the infinite matrix, and an expression is derived for the total energy in the fiber due to the incident SH wave. A nondimensional form of the fiber energy is plotted as a function of the nondimensional wavenumber of the SH wave. It is shown that the fiber energy attains maximum values at specific values of the wavenumber of the incident wave. The results obtained here are interpreted in the context of phenomena observed in acousto-ultrasonic experiments on fiber reinforced composite materials.

  12. Risk Insights Gained from Fire Incidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kazarians, Mardy; Nowlen, Steven P.

    1999-01-01

    There now exist close to 20 years of history in the application of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) for the analysis of fire risk at nuclear power plants. The current methods are based on various assumptions regarding fire phenomena, the impact of fire on equipment and operator response, and the overall progression of a fire event from initiation through final resolution. Over this same time period, a number of significant fire incidents have occurred at nuclear power plants around the world. Insights gained from US experience have been used in US studies as the statistical basis for establishing fire initiation frequencies both as a function of the plant area and the initiating fire source.To a lesser extent, the fire experience has also been used to assess the general severity and duration of fires. However, aside from these statistical analyses, the incidents have rarely been scrutinized in detail to verify the underlying assumptions of fire PRAs. This paper discusses an effort, under which a set of fire incidents are being reviewed in order to gain insights directly relevant to the methods, data, and assumptions that form the basis for current fire PRAs. The paper focuses on the objectives of the effort, the specific fire events being reviews methodology, and anticipated follow-on activities

  13. Diagnostics for Linear Models With Functional Responses

    OpenAIRE

    Xu, Hongquan; Shen, Qing

    2005-01-01

    Linear models where the response is a function and the predictors are vectors are useful in analyzing data from designed experiments and other situations with functional observations. Residual analysis and diagnostics are considered for such models. Studentized residuals are defined and their properties are studied. Chi-square quantile-quantile plots are proposed to check the assumption of Gaussian error process and outliers. Jackknife residuals and an associated test are proposed to det...

  14. Persistence and extinction for a class of stochastic SIS epidemic models with nonlinear incidence rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teng, Zhidong; Wang, Lei

    2016-06-01

    In this paper, a class of stochastic SIS epidemic models with nonlinear incidence rate is investigated. It is shown that the extinction and persistence of the disease in probability are determined by a threshold value R˜0. That is, if R˜0 1 then disease is weak permanent with probability one. To obtain the permanence in the mean of the disease, a new quantity R̂0 is introduced, and it is proved that if R̂0 > 1 the disease is permanent in the mean with probability one. Furthermore, the numerical simulations are presented to illustrate some open problems given in Remarks 1-3 and 5 of this paper.

  15. FUNCTIONAL MODELLING FOR FAULT DIAGNOSIS AND ITS APPLICATION FOR NPP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MORTEN LIND

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents functional modelling and its application for diagnosis in nuclear power plants. Functional modelling is defined and its relevance for coping with the complexity of diagnosis in large scale systems like nuclear plants is explained. The diagnosis task is analyzed and it is demonstrated that the levels of abstraction in models for diagnosis must reflect plant knowledge about goals and functions which is represented in functional modelling. Multilevel flow modelling (MFM, which is a method for functional modelling, is introduced briefly and illustrated with a cooling system example. The use of MFM for reasoning about causes and consequences is explained in detail and demonstrated using the reasoning tool, the MFMSuite. MFM applications in nuclear power systems are described by two examples: a PWR; and an FBR reactor. The PWR example show how MFM can be used to model and reason about operating modes. The FBR example illustrates how the modelling development effort can be managed by proper strategies including decomposition and reuse.

  16. Functional Modelling for fault diagnosis and its application for NPP

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lind, Morten; Zhang, Xin Xin [Dept. of Electrical Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, Kongens Lyngby (Denmark)

    2014-12-15

    The paper presents functional modelling and its application for diagnosis in nuclear power plants. Functional modelling is defined and its relevance for coping with the complexity of diagnosis in large scale systems like nuclear plants is explained. The diagnosis task is analyzed and it is demonstrated that the levels of abstraction in models for diagnosis must reflect plant knowledge about goals and functions which is represented in functional modelling. Multilevel flow modelling (MFM), which is a method for functional modelling, is introduced briefly and illustrated with a cooling system example. The use of MFM for reasoning about causes and consequences is explained in detail and demonstrated using the reasoning tool, the MFMSuite. MFM applications in nuclear power systems are described by two examples: a PWR; and an FBR reactor. The PWR example show how MFM can be used to model and reason about operating modes. The FBR example illustrates how the modelling development effort can be managed by proper strategies including decomposition and reuse.

  17. Functional Modelling for fault diagnosis and its application for NPP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lind, Morten; Zhang, Xin Xin

    2014-01-01

    The paper presents functional modelling and its application for diagnosis in nuclear power plants. Functional modelling is defined and its relevance for coping with the complexity of diagnosis in large scale systems like nuclear plants is explained. The diagnosis task is analyzed and it is demonstrated that the levels of abstraction in models for diagnosis must reflect plant knowledge about goals and functions which is represented in functional modelling. Multilevel flow modelling (MFM), which is a method for functional modelling, is introduced briefly and illustrated with a cooling system example. The use of MFM for reasoning about causes and consequences is explained in detail and demonstrated using the reasoning tool, the MFMSuite. MFM applications in nuclear power systems are described by two examples: a PWR; and an FBR reactor. The PWR example show how MFM can be used to model and reason about operating modes. The FBR example illustrates how the modelling development effort can be managed by proper strategies including decomposition and reuse.

  18. Modeling phytoplankton community in reservoirs. A comparison between taxonomic and functional groups-based models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Maggio, Jimena; Fernández, Carolina; Parodi, Elisa R; Diaz, M Soledad; Estrada, Vanina

    2016-01-01

    In this paper we address the formulation of two mechanistic water quality models that differ in the way the phytoplankton community is described. We carry out parameter estimation subject to differential-algebraic constraints and validation for each model and comparison between models performance. The first approach aggregates phytoplankton species based on their phylogenetic characteristics (Taxonomic group model) and the second one, on their morpho-functional properties following Reynolds' classification (Functional group model). The latter approach takes into account tolerance and sensitivity to environmental conditions. The constrained parameter estimation problems are formulated within an equation oriented framework, with a maximum likelihood objective function. The study site is Paso de las Piedras Reservoir (Argentina), which supplies water for consumption for 450,000 population. Numerical results show that phytoplankton morpho-functional groups more closely represent each species growth requirements within the group. Each model performance is quantitatively assessed by three diagnostic measures. Parameter estimation results for seasonal dynamics of the phytoplankton community and main biogeochemical variables for a one-year time horizon are presented and compared for both models, showing the functional group model enhanced performance. Finally, we explore increasing nutrient loading scenarios and predict their effect on phytoplankton dynamics throughout a one-year time horizon. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Update of neutron dose yields as a function of energy for protons and deuterons incident on beryllium targets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ten Haken, R.K.; Awschalom, M.; Rosenberg, I.

    1982-11-01

    Neutron absorbed dose yields (absorbed dose rates per unit incident current on targets at a given SAD or SSD) increase with incident charged particle energy for both protons and deuterons. Analyses of neutron dose yield versus incident particle energy have been performed for both deuterons and protons. It is the purpose of this report to update those analyses by pooling all of the more recent published results and to reanalyze the trend of yield, Y, versus incident energy, E, which in the past has been described by an expression of the form Y = aE/sup b/, where a and b are empirical constants. From the reanalyzed trend it is concluded that for a given size cyclotron (E/sub p/ = 2E/sub d/), the dose yields using protons are higher than those using deuterons up to a proton energy E/sub p/ of 64 MeV

  20. Noble-gas ion sputtering yield of gold and copper: Dependence on the energy and angle of incidence of the projectiles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oliva-Florio, A.; Baragiola, R.A.; Jakas, M.M.; Alonso, E.V.; Ferron, J.

    1987-02-15

    We have measured the sputtering yield of Au and Cu targets as a function of energy and the angle of incidence of noble-gas projectiles in the energy range 2--50 keV. The experimental results were compared with the analytical theory of sputtering and with computer simulations. Our study indicates that the linear-cascade model is applicable only asymptotically for low nuclear stopping powers.

  1. Calculation of multi-dimensional dose distribution in medium due to proton beam incidence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kawachi, Kiyomitsu; Inada, Tetsuo

    1978-01-01

    The method of analyzing the multi-dimensional dose distribution in a medium due to proton beam incidence is presented to obtain the reliable and simplified method from clinical viewpoint, especially for the medical treatment of cancer. The heavy ion beam being taken out of an accelerator has to be adjusted to fit cancer location and size, utilizing a modified range modulator, a ridge filter, a bolus and a special scanning apparatus. The precise calculation of multi-dimensional dose distribution of proton beam is needed to fit treatment to a limit part. The analytical formulas consist of those for the fluence distribution in a medium, the divergence of flying range, the energy distribution itself, the dose distribution in side direction and the two-dimensional dose distribution. The fluence distribution in polystyrene in case of the protons with incident energy of 40 and 60 MeV, the energy distribution of protons at the position of a Bragg peak for various values of incident energy, the depth dose distribution in polystyrene in case of the protons with incident energy of 40 and 60 MeV and average energy of 100 MeV, the proton fluence and dose distribution as functions of depth for the incident average energy of 250 MeV, the statistically estimated percentage errors in the proton fluence and dose distribution, the estimated minimum detectable tumor thickness as a function of the number of incident protons for the different incident spectra with average energy of 250 MeV, the isodose distribution in a plane containing the central axis in case of the incident proton beam of 3 mm diameter and 40 MeV and so on are presented as the analytical results, and they are evaluated. (Nakai, Y.)

  2. Measurement of 197Au(tau,xnyp) excitation functions for 15 MeV <= Esub(tau) <= 135 MeV and analysis in the framework of the hybrid model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bousshid, O.

    1981-01-01

    The (tau,xnyp)-reactions on 197 Au were measured. The 3 He incident energy was between 15 MeV and 135 MeV. The experiments were carried out using the stacked-foils technique. Cross sections were determind from the activity of the residual nuclei. The (tau,xn)-excitation functions were measured for 2 = 70 MeV as well as x >= 7 were measured for the first time. Further the (tau,pxn)- and (tau,2pxn)-excitation functions, which were not known so far, have now been measured. The analysis within the framework of the hybrid model for precompound-nuclear-reactions followed by an evaporation cascade, resulted in the best agreement between experimental data and theoretical model calculation using an initial exciton number nsub(o) = 5 (1n+3p+1h). The region of validity of the hybrid model for complex projectiles is discussed. (orig.) [de

  3. Multivariate Heteroscedasticity Models for Functional Brain Connectivity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christof Seiler

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Functional brain connectivity is the co-occurrence of brain activity in different areas during resting and while doing tasks. The data of interest are multivariate timeseries measured simultaneously across brain parcels using resting-state fMRI (rfMRI. We analyze functional connectivity using two heteroscedasticity models. Our first model is low-dimensional and scales linearly in the number of brain parcels. Our second model scales quadratically. We apply both models to data from the Human Connectome Project (HCP comparing connectivity between short and conventional sleepers. We find stronger functional connectivity in short than conventional sleepers in brain areas consistent with previous findings. This might be due to subjects falling asleep in the scanner. Consequently, we recommend the inclusion of average sleep duration as a covariate to remove unwanted variation in rfMRI studies. A power analysis using the HCP data shows that a sample size of 40 detects 50% of the connectivity at a false discovery rate of 20%. We provide implementations using R and the probabilistic programming language Stan.

  4. Evaluation-Function-based Model-free Adaptive Fuzzy Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agus Naba

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Designs of adaptive fuzzy controllers (AFC are commonly based on the Lyapunov approach, which requires a known model of the controlled plant. They need to consider a Lyapunov function candidate as an evaluation function to be minimized. In this study these drawbacks were handled by designing a model-free adaptive fuzzy controller (MFAFC using an approximate evaluation function defined in terms of the current state, the next state, and the control action. MFAFC considers the approximate evaluation function as an evaluative control performance measure similar to the state-action value function in reinforcement learning. The simulation results of applying MFAFC to the inverted pendulum benchmark verified the proposed scheme’s efficacy.

  5. Model Penentuan Nilai Target Functional Requirement Berbasis Utilitas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cucuk Nur Rosyidi

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available In a product design and development process, a designer faces a problem to decide functional requirement (FR target values. That decision is made under a risk since it is conducted in the early design phase using incomplete information. Utility function can be used to reflect the decision maker attitude towards the risk in making such decision. In this research, we develop a utility-based model to determine FR target values using quadratic utility function and information from Quality Function Deployment (QFD. A pencil design is used as a numerical example using quadratic utility function for each FR. The model can be applied for balancing customer and designer interest in determining FR target values.

  6. Towards refactoring the Molecular Function Ontology with a UML profile for function modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burek, Patryk; Loebe, Frank; Herre, Heinrich

    2017-10-04

    Gene Ontology (GO) is the largest resource for cataloging gene products. This resource grows steadily and, naturally, this growth raises issues regarding the structure of the ontology. Moreover, modeling and refactoring large ontologies such as GO is generally far from being simple, as a whole as well as when focusing on certain aspects or fragments. It seems that human-friendly graphical modeling languages such as the Unified Modeling Language (UML) could be helpful in connection with these tasks. We investigate the use of UML for making the structural organization of the Molecular Function Ontology (MFO), a sub-ontology of GO, more explicit. More precisely, we present a UML dialect, called the Function Modeling Language (FueL), which is suited for capturing functions in an ontologically founded way. FueL is equipped, among other features, with language elements that arise from studying patterns of subsumption between functions. We show how to use this UML dialect for capturing the structure of molecular functions. Furthermore, we propose and discuss some refactoring options concerning fragments of MFO. FueL enables the systematic, graphical representation of functions and their interrelations, including making information explicit that is currently either implicit in MFO or is mainly captured in textual descriptions. Moreover, the considered subsumption patterns lend themselves to the methodical analysis of refactoring options with respect to MFO. On this basis we argue that the approach can increase the comprehensibility of the structure of MFO for humans and can support communication, for example, during revision and further development.

  7. Thyroid Cancer Incidences From Selected South America Population-Based Cancer Registries: An Age-Period-Cohort Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anne Karin da Mota Borges

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The incidence of thyroid cancer (TC has increased substantially worldwide. However, there is a lack of knowledge about age-period-cohort (APC effects on incidence rates in South American countries. This study describes the TC incidence trends and analyzes APC effects in Cali, Colombia; Costa Rica; Goiânia, Brazil; and Quito, Ecuador. Materials and Methods: Data were obtained from the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents series, and the crude and age-standardized incidence rates were calculated. Trends were assessed using the estimated annual percentage change, and APC models were estimated using Poisson regression for individuals between age 20 and 79 years. Results: An increasing trend in age-standardized incidence rates was observed among women from Goiânia (9.2%, Costa Rica (5.7%, Quito (4.0%, and Cali (3.4%, and in men from Goiânia (10.0% and Costa Rica (3.4%. The APC modeling showed that there was a period effect in all regions and for both sexes. Increasing rate ratios were observed among women over the periods. The best fit model was the APC model in women from all regions and in men from Quito, whereas the age-cohort model showed a better fit in men from Cali and Costa Rica, and the age-drift model showed a better fit among men from Goiânia. Conclusion: These findings suggest that overdiagnosis is a possible explanation for the observed increasing pattern of TC incidence. However, some environmental exposures may also have contributed to the observed increase.

  8. A multi-tiered time-series modelling approach to forecasting respiratory syncytial virus incidence at the local level.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spaeder, M C; Fackler, J C

    2012-04-01

    Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the most common cause of documented viral respiratory infections, and the leading cause of hospitalization, in young children. We performed a retrospective time-series analysis of all patients aged Forecasting models of weekly RSV incidence for the local community, inpatient paediatric hospital and paediatric intensive-care unit (PICU) were created. Ninety-five percent confidence intervals calculated around our models' 2-week forecasts were accurate to ±9·3, ±7·5 and ±1·5 cases/week for the local community, inpatient hospital and PICU, respectively. Our results suggest that time-series models may be useful tools in forecasting the burden of RSV infection at the local and institutional levels, helping communities and institutions to optimize distribution of resources based on the changing burden and severity of illness in their respective communities.

  9. Association of anxiety disorders and depression with incident heart failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garfield, Lauren D; Scherrer, Jeffrey F; Hauptman, Paul J; Freedland, Kenneth E; Chrusciel, Tim; Balasubramanian, Sumitra; Carney, Robert M; Newcomer, John W; Owen, Richard; Bucholz, Kathleen K; Lustman, Patrick J

    2014-02-01

    Depression has been associated with increased risk of heart failure (HF). Because anxiety is highly comorbid with depression, we sought to establish if anxiety, depression, or their co-occurrence is associated with incident HF. A retrospective cohort (N = 236,079) including Veteran's Administration patients (age, 50-80 years) free of cardiovascular disease (CVD) at baseline was followed up between 2001 and 2007. Cox proportional hazards models were computed to estimate the association between anxiety disorders alone, major depressive disorder (MDD) alone, and the combination of anxiety and MDD, with incident HF before and after adjusting for sociodemographics, CVD risk factors (Type 2 diabetes, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, obesity), nicotine dependence/personal history of tobacco use, substance use disorders (alcohol and illicit drug abuse/dependence), and psychotropic medication. Compared with unaffected patients, those with anxiety only, MDD only, and both disorders were at increased risk for incident HF in age-adjusted models (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.19 [ 95% confidence interval {CI} = 1.10-1.28], HR = 1.21 [95% CI = 1.13-1.28], and HR = 1.24 [95% CI = 1.17-1.32], respectively). After controlling for psychotropics in a full model, the association between anxiety only, MDD only, and both disorders and incident HF increased (HRs = 1.46, 1.56, and 1.74, respectively). Anxiety disorders, MDD, and co-occurring anxiety and MDD are associated with incident HF in this large cohort of Veteran's Administration patients free of CVD at baseline. This risk of HF is greater after accounting for protective effects of psychotropic medications. Prospective studies are needed to clarify the role of depression and anxiety and their pharmacological treatment in the etiology of HF.

  10. Group-ICA model order highlights patterns of functional brain connectivity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmed eAbou Elseoud

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Resting-state networks (RSNs can be reliably and reproducibly detected using independent component analysis (ICA at both individual subject and group levels. Altering ICA dimensionality (model order estimation can have a significant impact on the spatial characteristics of the RSNs as well as their parcellation into sub-networks. Recent evidence from several neuroimaging studies suggests that the human brain has a modular hierarchical organization which resembles the hierarchy depicted by different ICA model orders. We hypothesized that functional connectivity between-group differences measured with ICA might be affected by model order selection. We investigated differences in functional connectivity using so-called dual-regression as a function of ICA model order in a group of unmedicated seasonal affective disorder (SAD patients compared to normal healthy controls. The results showed that the detected disease-related differences in functional connectivity alter as a function of ICA model order. The volume of between-group differences altered significantly as a function of ICA model order reaching maximum at model order 70 (which seems to be an optimal point that conveys the largest between-group difference then stabilized afterwards. Our results show that fine-grained RSNs enable better detection of detailed disease-related functional connectivity changes. However, high model orders show an increased risk of false positives that needs to be overcome. Our findings suggest that multilevel ICA exploration of functional connectivity enables optimization of sensitivity to brain disorders.

  11. Neural modeling of prefrontal executive function

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Levine, D.S. [Univ. of Texas, Arlington, TX (United States)

    1996-12-31

    Brain executive function is based in a distributed system whereby prefrontal cortex is interconnected with other cortical. and subcortical loci. Executive function is divided roughly into three interacting parts: affective guidance of responses; linkage among working memory representations; and forming complex behavioral schemata. Neural network models of each of these parts are reviewed and fit into a preliminary theoretical framework.

  12. Soil Dust Aerosols and Wind as Predictors of Seasonal Meningitis Incidence in Niger

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perez Garcia Pando, Carlos; Stanton, Michelle C.; Diggle, Peter J.; Trzaska, Sylwia; Miller, Ron L.; Perlwitz, Jan P.; Baldasano, Jose M.; Cuevas, Emilio; Ceccato, Pietro; Yaka, Pascal; hide

    2014-01-01

    Background: Epidemics of meningococcal meningitis are concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa during the dry season, a period when the region is affected by the Harmattan, a dry and dusty northeasterly trade wind blowing from the Sahara into the Gulf of Guinea.Objectives: We examined the potential of climate-based statistical forecasting models to predict seasonal incidence of meningitis in Niger at both the national and district levels.Data and methods: We used time series of meningitis incidence from 1986 through 2006 for 38 districts in Niger. We tested models based on data that would be readily available in an operational framework, such as climate and dust, population, and the incidence of early cases before the onset of the meningitis season in January-May. Incidence was used as a proxy for immunological state.

  13. Using mortality data to estimate radiation effects on breast cancer incidence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoel, D.G.; Dinse, G.E.

    1990-01-01

    In this paper we combine Japanese data on radiation exposure and cancer mortality with U.S. data on cancer incidence and lethality to estimate the effects of ionizing radiation on cancer incidence. The analysis is based on the mathematical relationship between the mortality rate and the incidence and lethality rates, as well as on statistical models that relate Japanese incidence rates to U.S. incidence rates and radiation risk factors. Our approach assumes that the risk of death from causes other than the cancer does not depend on whether or not the cancer is present, and among individuals with the cancer, the risk of death attributable to the cancer is the same in Japan and the U.S. and is not affected by radiation exposure. In particular, we focus on the incidence of breast cancer in Japanese women and how this incidence is affected by radiation risk factors. The analysis uses Japanese exposure and mortality data from the Radiation Effects Research Foundation study of atomic bomb survivors and U.S. incidence and lethality data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Registry. Even without Japanese incidence data, we obtain reasonable estimates of the incidence of breast cancer in unexposed Japanese women and identify the radiation risk factors that affect this incidence. Our analysis demonstrates that the age at exposure is an important risk factor, but that the incidence of breast cancer is not affected by the city of residence (Nagasaki versus Hiroshima) or the time since exposure

  14. Long-Term Impact of the Dutch Colorectal Cancer Screening Program on Cancer Incidence and Mortality-Model-Based Exploration of the Serrated Pathway

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Greuter, Marjolein J. E.; Demirel, Erhan; Lew, Jie-Bin; Berkhof, Johannes; Xu, Xiang-Ming; Canfell, Karen; Dekker, Evelien; Meijer, Gerrit A.; Coupé, Veerle M. H.

    2016-01-01

    We aimed to predict the long-term colorectal cancer incidence, mortality, and colonoscopy demand of the recently implemented Dutch colorectal cancer screening program. The Adenoma and Serrated pathway to Colorectal Cancer model was set up to simulate the Dutch screening program consisting of

  15. Critical incident monitoring in anaesthesia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choy, Y C

    2006-12-01

    Critical incident monitoring in anaesthesia is an important tool for quality improvement and maintenance of high safety standards in anaesthetic services. It is now widely accepted as a useful quality improvement technique for reducing morbidity and mortality in anaesthesia and has become part of the many quality assurance programmes of many general hospitals under the Ministry of Health. Despite wide-spread reservations about its value, critical incident monitoring is a classical qualitative research technique which is particularly useful where problems are complex, contextual and influenced by the interaction of physical, psychological and social factors. Thus, it is well suited to be used in probing the complex factors behind human error and system failure. Human error has significant contributions to morbidities and mortalities in anaesthesia. Understanding the relationships between, errors, incidents and accidents is important for prevention and risk management to reduce harm to patients. Cardiac arrests in the operating theatre (OT) and prolonged stay in recovery, constituted the bulk of reported incidents. Cardiac arrests in OT resulted in significant mortality and involved mostly de-compensated patients and those with unstable cardiovascular functions, presenting for emergency operations. Prolonged-stay in the recovery extended period of observation for ill patients. Prolonged stay in recovery was justifiable in some cases, as these patients needed a longer period of post-operative observation until they were stable enough to return to the ward. The advantages of the relatively low cost, and the ability to provide a comprehensive body of detailed qualitative information, which can be used to develop strategies to prevent and manage existing problems and to plan further initiatives for patient safety makes critical incident monitoring a valuable tool in ensuring patient safety. The contribution of critical incident reporting to the issue of patient safety is

  16. Symmetries and modelling functions for diffusion processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nikitin, A G; Spichak, S V; Vedula, Yu S; Naumovets, A G

    2009-01-01

    A constructive approach to the theory of diffusion processes is proposed, which is based on application of both symmetry analysis and the method of modelling functions. An algorithm for construction of the modelling functions is suggested. This algorithm is based on the error function expansion (ERFEX) of experimental concentration profiles. The high-accuracy analytical description of the profiles provided by ERFEX approximation allows a convenient extraction of the concentration dependence of diffusivity from experimental data and prediction of the diffusion process. Our analysis is exemplified by its employment in experimental results obtained for surface diffusion of lithium on the molybdenum (1 1 2) surface precovered with dysprosium. The ERFEX approximation can be directly extended to many other diffusion systems.

  17. Incidence and cost of rotavirus hospitalizations in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fischer, Thea Kølsen; Nielsen, Nete Munk; Wohlfahrt, Jan

    2007-01-01

    In anticipation of licensure and introduction of rotavirus vaccine into the western market, we used modeling of national hospital registry data to determine the incidence and direct medical costs of annual rotavirus-associated admissions over >11 years in Denmark. Diarrhea-associated hospitalizat......In anticipation of licensure and introduction of rotavirus vaccine into the western market, we used modeling of national hospital registry data to determine the incidence and direct medical costs of annual rotavirus-associated admissions over >11 years in Denmark. Diarrhea......-associated hospitalizations coded as nonspecified viral or presumed infectious have demonstrated a marked winter peak similar to that of rotavirus-associated hospitalizations, which suggests that the registered rotavirus-coded admissions are grossly underestimated. We therefore obtained more realistic estimates by 2...... different models, which indicated 2.4 and 2.5 (for children rotavirus-associated admissions per 1,000 children per year, respectively. These admissions amount to associated direct medical costs of US $1.7-1.8 million per year. Using 2 simple...

  18. Incident Information Management Tool

    CERN Document Server

    Pejovic, Vladimir

    2015-01-01

    Flaws of\tcurrent incident information management at CMS and CERN\tare discussed. A new data\tmodel for future incident database is\tproposed and briefly described. Recently developed draft version of GIS-­‐based tool for incident tracking is presented.

  19. Functional linear models for association analysis of quantitative traits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Ruzong; Wang, Yifan; Mills, James L; Wilson, Alexander F; Bailey-Wilson, Joan E; Xiong, Momiao

    2013-11-01

    Functional linear models are developed in this paper for testing associations between quantitative traits and genetic variants, which can be rare variants or common variants or the combination of the two. By treating multiple genetic variants of an individual in a human population as a realization of a stochastic process, the genome of an individual in a chromosome region is a continuum of sequence data rather than discrete observations. The genome of an individual is viewed as a stochastic function that contains both linkage and linkage disequilibrium (LD) information of the genetic markers. By using techniques of functional data analysis, both fixed and mixed effect functional linear models are built to test the association between quantitative traits and genetic variants adjusting for covariates. After extensive simulation analysis, it is shown that the F-distributed tests of the proposed fixed effect functional linear models have higher power than that of sequence kernel association test (SKAT) and its optimal unified test (SKAT-O) for three scenarios in most cases: (1) the causal variants are all rare, (2) the causal variants are both rare and common, and (3) the causal variants are common. The superior performance of the fixed effect functional linear models is most likely due to its optimal utilization of both genetic linkage and LD information of multiple genetic variants in a genome and similarity among different individuals, while SKAT and SKAT-O only model the similarities and pairwise LD but do not model linkage and higher order LD information sufficiently. In addition, the proposed fixed effect models generate accurate type I error rates in simulation studies. We also show that the functional kernel score tests of the proposed mixed effect functional linear models are preferable in candidate gene analysis and small sample problems. The methods are applied to analyze three biochemical traits in data from the Trinity Students Study. © 2013 WILEY

  20. Enabling Cross-Discipline Collaboration Via a Functional Data Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindholm, D. M.; Wilson, A.; Baltzer, T.

    2016-12-01

    Many research disciplines have very specialized data models that are used to express the detailed semantics that are meaningful to that community and easily utilized by their data analysis tools. While invaluable to members of that community, such expressive data structures and metadata are of little value to potential collaborators from other scientific disciplines. Many data interoperability efforts focus on the difficult task of computationally mapping concepts from one domain to another to facilitate discovery and use of data. Although these efforts are important and promising, we have found that a great deal of discovery and dataset understanding still happens at the level of less formal, personal communication. However, a significant barrier to inter-disciplinary data sharing that remains is one of data access.Scientists and data analysts continue to spend inordinate amounts of time simply trying to get data into their analysis tools. Providing data in a standard file format is often not sufficient since data can be structured in many ways. Adhering to more explicit community standards for data structure and metadata does little to help those in other communities.The Functional Data Model specializes the Relational Data Model (used by many database systems)by defining relations as functions between independent (domain) and dependent (codomain) variables. Given that arrays of data in many scientific data formats generally represent functionally related parameters (e.g. temperature as a function of space and time), the Functional Data Model is quite relevant for these datasets as well. The LaTiS software framework implements the Functional Data Model and provides a mechanism to expose an existing data source as a LaTiS dataset. LaTiS datasets can be manipulated using a Functional Algebra and output in any number of formats.LASP has successfully used the Functional Data Model and its implementation in the LaTiS software framework to bridge the gap between

  1. Prophylactic antibiotics are associated with a lower incidence of pneumonia in cardiac arrest survivors treated with targeted temperature management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gagnon, David J; Nielsen, Niklas; Fraser, Gilles L

    2015-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Prophylactic antibiotics (PRO) reduce the incidence of early-onset pneumonia in comatose patients with structural brain injury, but have not been examined in cardiac arrest survivors undergoing targeted temperature management (TTM). We investigated the effect of PRO on the development...... of pneumonia in that population. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study comparing patients treated with PRO to those not receiving PRO (no-PRO) using Northern Hypothermia Network registry data. Cardiac arrest survivors ≥ 18 years of age with a GCS...-34 °C were enrolled in the registry. Differences were analyzed in univariate analyses and with logistic regression models to evaluate independent associations of clinical factors with incidence of pneumonia and good functional outcome. RESULTS: 416 of 1240 patients (33.5%) received PRO. Groups were...

  2. Using incident response trees as a tool for risk management of online financial services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorton, Dan

    2014-09-01

    The article introduces the use of probabilistic risk assessment for modeling the incident response process of online financial services. The main contribution is the creation of incident response trees, using event tree analysis, which provides us with a visual tool and a systematic way to estimate the probability of a successful incident response process against the currently known risk landscape, making it possible to measure the balance between front-end and back-end security measures. The model is presented using an illustrative example, and is then applied to the incident response process of a Swedish bank. Access to relevant data is verified and the applicability and usability of the proposed model is verified using one year of historical data. Potential advantages and possible shortcomings are discussed, referring to both the design phase and the operational phase, and future work is presented. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  3. Ramadan model of intermittent fasting for 28 d had no major effect on body composition, glucose metabolism, or cognitive functions in healthy lean men

    OpenAIRE

    Harder-Lauridsen, Nina M.; Rosenberg, Astrid; Benatti, Fabiana B.; Damm, Julie A.; Thomsen, Carsten; Mortensen, Erik L.; Pedersen, Bente K.; Krogh-Madsen, Rikke

    2017-01-01

    Objectives: There has been a parallel increase in the incidence of obesity and diabetes as well as the number of daily meals. However, evidence is lacking regarding the role of intermittent fasting. The aim of this study was to determine the effects of a Ramadan model of intermittent fasting (RIF; 14 h of daytime abstinence from food and drinking) for 28 d on body composition, glucose metabolism, and cognitive function. Methods: Ten healthy, lean men were included in a nonrandomized, crossove...

  4. Towards aspect-oriented functional--structural plant modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cieslak, Mikolaj; Seleznyova, Alla N; Prusinkiewicz, Przemyslaw; Hanan, Jim

    2011-10-01

    Functional-structural plant models (FSPMs) are used to integrate knowledge and test hypotheses of plant behaviour, and to aid in the development of decision support systems. A significant amount of effort is being put into providing a sound methodology for building them. Standard techniques, such as procedural or object-oriented programming, are not suited for clearly separating aspects of plant function that criss-cross between different components of plant structure, which makes it difficult to reuse and share their implementations. The aim of this paper is to present an aspect-oriented programming approach that helps to overcome this difficulty. The L-system-based plant modelling language L+C was used to develop an aspect-oriented approach to plant modelling based on multi-modules. Each element of the plant structure was represented by a sequence of L-system modules (rather than a single module), with each module representing an aspect of the element's function. Separate sets of productions were used for modelling each aspect, with context-sensitive rules facilitated by local lists of modules to consider/ignore. Aspect weaving or communication between aspects was made possible through the use of pseudo-L-systems, where the strict-predecessor of a production rule was specified as a multi-module. The new approach was used to integrate previously modelled aspects of carbon dynamics, apical dominance and biomechanics with a model of a developing kiwifruit shoot. These aspects were specified independently and their implementation was based on source code provided by the original authors without major changes. This new aspect-oriented approach to plant modelling is well suited for studying complex phenomena in plant science, because it can be used to integrate separate models of individual aspects of plant development and function, both previously constructed and new, into clearly organized, comprehensive FSPMs. In a future work, this approach could be further

  5. Estimating HIV incidence among adults in Kenya and Uganda: a systematic comparison of multiple methods.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea A Kim

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Several approaches have been used for measuring HIV incidence in large areas, yet each presents specific challenges in incidence estimation.We present a comparison of incidence estimates for Kenya and Uganda using multiple methods: 1 Epidemic Projections Package (EPP and Spectrum models fitted to HIV prevalence from antenatal clinics (ANC and national population-based surveys (NPS in Kenya (2003, 2007 and Uganda (2004/2005; 2 a survey-derived model to infer age-specific incidence between two sequential NPS; 3 an assay-derived measurement in NPS using the BED IgG capture enzyme immunoassay, adjusted for misclassification using a locally derived false-recent rate (FRR for the assay; (4 community cohorts in Uganda; (5 prevalence trends in young ANC attendees. EPP/Spectrum-derived and survey-derived modeled estimates were similar: 0.67 [uncertainty range: 0.60, 0.74] and 0.6 [confidence interval: (CI 0.4, 0.9], respectively, for Uganda (2005 and 0.72 [uncertainty range: 0.70, 0.74] and 0.7 [CI 0.3, 1.1], respectively, for Kenya (2007. Using a local FRR, assay-derived incidence estimates were 0.3 [CI 0.0, 0.9] for Uganda (2004/2005 and 0.6 [CI 0, 1.3] for Kenya (2007. Incidence trends were similar for all methods for both Uganda and Kenya.Triangulation of methods is recommended to determine best-supported estimates of incidence to guide programs. Assay-derived incidence estimates are sensitive to the level of the assay's FRR, and uncertainty around high FRRs can significantly impact the validity of the estimate. Systematic evaluations of new and existing incidence assays are needed to the study the level, distribution, and determinants of the FRR to guide whether incidence assays can produce reliable estimates of national HIV incidence.

  6. Serum calcium and incident diabetes: an observational study and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sing, C W; Cheng, V K F; Ho, D K C; Kung, A W C; Cheung, B M Y; Wong, I C K; Tan, K C B; Salas-Salvadó, J; Becerra-Tomas, N; Cheung, C L

    2016-05-01

    The study aimed to prospectively evaluate if serum calcium is related to diabetes incidence in Hong Kong Chinese. The results showed that serum calcium has a significant association with increased risk of diabetes. The result of meta-analysis reinforced our findings. This study aimed to evaluate the association of serum calcium, including serum total calcium and albumin-corrected calcium, with incident diabetes in Hong Kong Chinese. We conducted a retrospective cohort study in 6096 participants aged 20 or above and free of diabetes at baseline. Serum calcium was measured at baseline. Incident diabetes was determined from several electronic databases. We also searched relevant databases for studies on serum calcium and incident diabetes and conducted a meta-analysis using fixed-effect modeling. During 59,130.9 person-years of follow-up, 631 participants developed diabetes. Serum total calcium and albumin-corrected calcium were associated with incident diabetes in the unadjusted model. After adjusting for demographic and clinical variables, the association remained significant only for serum total calcium (hazard ratio (HR), 1.32 (95 % confidence interval (CI), 1.02-1.70), highest vs. lowest quartile). In a meta-analysis of four studies including the current study, both serum total calcium (pooled risk ratio (RR), 1.38 (95 % CI, 1.15-1.65); I (2) = 5 %, comparing extreme quantiles) and albumin-corrected calcium (pooled RR, 1.29 (95 % CI, 1.03-1.61); I (2) = 0 %, comparing extreme quantiles) were associated with incident diabetes. Penalized regression splines showed that the association of incident diabetes with serum total calcium and albumin-correlated calcium was non-linear and linear, respectively. Elevated serum calcium concentration is associated with incident diabetes. The mechanism underlying this association warrants further investigation.

  7. Model validation and calibration based on component functions of model output

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Danqing; Lu, Zhenzhou; Wang, Yanping; Cheng, Lei

    2015-01-01

    The target in this work is to validate the component functions of model output between physical observation and computational model with the area metric. Based on the theory of high dimensional model representations (HDMR) of independent input variables, conditional expectations are component functions of model output, and the conditional expectations reflect partial information of model output. Therefore, the model validation of conditional expectations tells the discrepancy between the partial information of the computational model output and that of the observations. Then a calibration of the conditional expectations is carried out to reduce the value of model validation metric. After that, a recalculation of the model validation metric of model output is taken with the calibrated model parameters, and the result shows that a reduction of the discrepancy in the conditional expectations can help decrease the difference in model output. At last, several examples are employed to demonstrate the rationality and necessity of the methodology in case of both single validation site and multiple validation sites. - Highlights: • A validation metric of conditional expectations of model output is proposed. • HDRM explains the relationship of conditional expectations and model output. • An improved approach of parameter calibration updates the computational models. • Validation and calibration process are applied at single site and multiple sites. • Validation and calibration process show a superiority than existing methods

  8. Cumulative incidence and prevalence of childhood autism in children in Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Honda, H; Shimizu, Y; Misumi, K; Niimi, M; Ohashi, Y

    1996-08-01

    An epidemiological survey of childhood autism as defined in ICD-10 Research Criteria was conducted in the northern part of Yokohama, Japan. The routine health checkup for 18-month-old children served as the initial mass-screening, and all facilities which provide child care services function to detect all cases with childhood autism and refer them to the Yokohama Rehabilitation Centre. Cumulative incidence of childhood autism up to 5 years of age among the birth cohort of 1988, and prevalence on 1 January 1994, among residents born in 1988 were estimated Cumulative incidence and prevalence were 16.2 per 10,000 and 21.1 per 10,000, respectively. Children with high-functioning autism who had IQs of 70 and over constituted approximately half of all the children with childhood autism. CONCLUSION. It was confirmed through better detection of high-functioning cases that childhood autism in Japan is more common than formerly estimated.

  9. Radiological incidents in radiotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hobzova, L.; Novotny, J.

    2008-01-01

    In many countries a reporting system of radiological incidents to national regulatory body exists and providers of radiotherapy treatment are obliged to report all major and/or in some countries all incidents occurring in institution. State Office for Nuclear Safety (SONS) is providing a systematic guidance for radiotherapy departments from 1997 by requiring inclusion of radiation safety problems into Quality assurance manual, which is the basic document for obtaining a license of SONS for handling with sources of ionizing radiation. For that purpose SONS also issued the recommendation 'Introduction of QA system for important sources in radiotherapy-radiological incidents' in which the radiological incidents are defined and the basic guidance for their classification (category A, B, C, D), investigation and reporting are given. At regular periods the SONS in co-operation with radiotherapy centers is making a survey of all radiological incidents occurring in institutions and it is presenting obtained information in synoptic communication (2003 Motolske dny, 2005 Novy Jicin). This presentation is another summary report of radiological incidents that occurred in our radiotherapy institutions during last 3 years. Emphasis is given not only to survey and statistics, but also to analysis of reasons of the radiological incidents and to their detection and prevention. Analyses of incidents in radiotherapy have led to a much broader understanding of incident causation. Information about the error should be shared as early as possible during or after investigation by all radiotherapy centers. Learning from incidents, errors and near misses should be a part of improvement of the QA system in institutions. Generally, it is recommended that all radiotherapy facilities should participate in the reporting, analyzing and learning system to facilitate the dissemination of knowledge throughout the whole country to prevent errors in radiotherapy.(authors)

  10. Cost functions of greenhouse models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Linderoth, H.

    2000-01-01

    The benchmark is equal to the cost (D) caused by an increase in temperature since the middle of the nineteenth century (T) of nearly 2.5 deg. C. According to mainstream economists, the benchmark is 1-2% of GDP, but very different estimates can also be found. Even though there appears to be agreement among a number of economists that the benchmark is 1-2% of GDP, major differences exist when it comes to estimating D for different sectors. One of the main problems is how to estimate non-market activities. Normally, the benchmark is the best guess, but due to the possibility of catastrophic events this can be considerable smaller than the mean. Certainly, the cost function is skewed to the right. The benchmark is just one point on the cost curve. To a great extent, cost functions are alike in greenhouse models (D = α ''.T'' λ). Cost functions are region and sector dependent in several models. In any case, both α (benchmark) and λ are rough estimates. Besides being dependent on α and λ, the marginal emission cost depends on the discount rate. In fact, because emissions have effects continuing for many years, the discount rate is clearly the most important parameter. (au) (au)

  11. Impact of meteorological changes on the incidence of scarlet fever in Hefei City, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duan, Yu; Huang, Xiao-lei; Wang, Yu-jie; Zhang, Jun-qing; Zhang, Qi; Dang, Yue-wen; Wang, Jing

    2016-10-01

    Studies on scarlet fever with meteorological factors included were few. We aimed to illustrate meteorological factors' effects on monthly incidence of scarlet fever. Cases of scarlet fever were collected from the report of legal infectious disease in Hefei City from 1985 to 2006; the meteorological data were obtained from the weather bureau of Hefei City. Monthly incidence and corresponding meteorological data in these 22 years were used to develop the model. The model of auto regressive integrated moving average with covariates was used in statistical analyses. There was a highest peak from March to June and a small peak from November to January. The incidence of scarlet fever ranges from 0 to 0.71502 (per 105 population). SARIMAX (1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 model was fitted with monthly incidence and meteorological data optimally. It was shown that relative humidity ( β = -0.002, p = 0.020), mean temperature ( β = 0.006, p = 0.004), and 1 month lag minimum temperature ( β = -0.007, p ARIMA model could be useful not only for prediction but also for the analysis of multiple correlations.

  12. Using Lambert W function and error function to model phase change on microfluidics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bermudez Garcia, Anderson

    2014-05-01

    Solidification and melting modeling on microfluidics are solved using Lambert W's function and error's functions. Models are formulated using the heat's diffusion equation. The generic posed case is the melting of a slab with time dependent surface temperature, having a micro or nano-fluid liquid phase. At the beginning the solid slab is at melting temperature. A slab's face is put and maintained at temperature greater than the melting limit and varying in time. Lambert W function and error function are applied via Maple to obtain the analytic solution evolution of the front of microfluidic-solid interface, it is analytically computed and slab's corresponding melting time is determined. It is expected to have analytical results to be useful for food engineering, cooking engineering, pharmaceutical engineering, nano-engineering and bio-medical engineering.

  13. Phospholipid transfer protein activity and incident type 2 diabetes mellitus

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Abbasi, Ali; Dallinga-Thie, Geesje M.; Dullaart, Robin P. F.

    2015-01-01

    Background: The plasma activity of phospholipid transfer protein (PLTP), which has multifaceted functions in lipoprotein metabolism and in inflammatory responses, is elevated in insulin resistant conditions. We determined the association of plasma PLTP activity with incident type 2 diabetes mellitus

  14. Mathematical Models of Cardiac Pacemaking Function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Pan; Lines, Glenn T.; Maleckar, Mary M.; Tveito, Aslak

    2013-10-01

    Over the past half century, there has been intense and fruitful interaction between experimental and computational investigations of cardiac function. This interaction has, for example, led to deep understanding of cardiac excitation-contraction coupling; how it works, as well as how it fails. However, many lines of inquiry remain unresolved, among them the initiation of each heartbeat. The sinoatrial node, a cluster of specialized pacemaking cells in the right atrium of the heart, spontaneously generates an electro-chemical wave that spreads through the atria and through the cardiac conduction system to the ventricles, initiating the contraction of cardiac muscle essential for pumping blood to the body. Despite the fundamental importance of this primary pacemaker, this process is still not fully understood, and ionic mechanisms underlying cardiac pacemaking function are currently under heated debate. Several mathematical models of sinoatrial node cell membrane electrophysiology have been constructed as based on different experimental data sets and hypotheses. As could be expected, these differing models offer diverse predictions about cardiac pacemaking activities. This paper aims to present the current state of debate over the origins of the pacemaking function of the sinoatrial node. Here, we will specifically review the state-of-the-art of cardiac pacemaker modeling, with a special emphasis on current discrepancies, limitations, and future challenges.

  15. [Predicting Incidence of Hepatitis E in Chinausing Fuzzy Time Series Based on Fuzzy C-Means Clustering Analysis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Yi; Zhang, Tao; Li, Xiao-song

    2016-05-01

    To explore the application of fuzzy time series model based on fuzzy c-means clustering in forecasting monthly incidence of Hepatitis E in mainland China. Apredictive model (fuzzy time series method based on fuzzy c-means clustering) was developed using Hepatitis E incidence data in mainland China between January 2004 and July 2014. The incidence datafrom August 2014 to November 2014 were used to test the fitness of the predictive model. The forecasting results were compared with those resulted from traditional fuzzy time series models. The fuzzy time series model based on fuzzy c-means clustering had 0.001 1 mean squared error (MSE) of fitting and 6.977 5 x 10⁻⁴ MSE of forecasting, compared with 0.0017 and 0.0014 from the traditional forecasting model. The results indicate that the fuzzy time series model based on fuzzy c-means clustering has a better performance in forecasting incidence of Hepatitis E.

  16. The Incidence of Functional Disorders and Clinical Symptoms that May be Associated with Lactase Deficiency in Infants of Lviv

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R.V. Tkach

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Today, the violations of the digestive system in children of the first years of life remain the actual problem of practical pediatrics and are the common cause for parents to visit a doctor. The importance in the genesis of functional disorders of the digestive system in children of this age may belongs to lactase deficiency. 327 children from Lviv were included in the questionnaire survey. The aim of the study was to evaluate the incidence of clinical symptoms that may be associated with lactase deficiency in infants. Among the clinical symptoms in young children, according to the survey, regurgitation and colic, stool disorders dominated. The diagnosis of lactase deficiency was established in 3.4 % (11 of children, 2.8 % (9 children received enzyme of lactase.

  17. The Schroedinger functional for Gross-Neveu models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leder, B.

    2007-01-01

    Gross-Neveu type models with a finite number of fermion flavours are studied on a two-dimensional Euclidean space-time lattice. The models are asymptotically free and are invariant under a chiral symmetry. These similarities to QCD make them perfect benchmark systems for fermion actions used in large scale lattice QCD computations. The Schroedinger functional for the Gross-Neveu models is defined for both, Wilson and Ginsparg-Wilson fermions, and shown to be renormalisable in 1-loop lattice perturbation theory. In two dimensions four fermion interactions of the Gross-Neveu models have dimensionless coupling constants. The symmetry properties of the four fermion interaction terms and the relations among them are discussed. For Wilson fermions chiral symmetry is explicitly broken and additional terms must be included in the action. Chiral symmetry is restored up to cut-off effects by tuning the bare mass and one of the couplings. The critical mass and the symmetry restoring coupling are computed to second order in lattice perturbation theory. This result is used in the 1-loop computation of the renormalised couplings and the associated beta-functions. The renormalised couplings are defined in terms of suitable boundary-to-boundary correlation functions. In the computation the known first order coefficients of the beta-functions are reproduced. One of the couplings is found to have a vanishing betafunction. The calculation is repeated for the recently proposed Schroedinger functional with exact chiral symmetry, i.e. Ginsparg-Wilson fermions. The renormalisation pattern is found to be the same as in the Wilson case. Using the regularisation dependent finite part of the renormalised couplings, the ratio of the Lambda-parameters is computed. (orig.)

  18. Effects of neurosurgical treatment and severity of head injury on cognitive functioning, general health and incidence of mental disorders in patients with traumatic brain injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rezaei, Sajjad; Asgari, Karim; Yousefzadeh, Shahrokh; Moosavi, Heshmat-Allah; Kazemnejad, Ehsan

    2012-01-01

    Neurosurgical treatment and the severity of head injury (HI) can have remarkable effect on patients' neuropsychiatric outcomes. This research aimed to study the effect of these factors on cognitive functioning, general health and incidence of mental disorders in patients with a traumatic brain injury (TBI). In this descriptive, longitudinal study, 206 TBI patients entered the study by consecutive sampling; they were then compared according to neurosurgery status and severity of their HI. Both groups underwent neurosurgical and psychological examinations. The mini mental state examination (MMSE) and general health questionnaire-28 items (GHQ-28) were administered to the study participants. At follow-up, four months later, the groups underwent a structured clinical interview by a psychiatrist based on the diagnostic and statistical manual of mental disorders, fourth edition (DSM-IV) diagnostic criteria regarding the presence of mental disorders. Analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) and multivariate analysis of covariance (MANCOVA) were performed and adjusted for the effect of confounding variables (age, gender, Glasgow outcome scale (GOS) , and level of education). The severity of HI had the most significant effect for the following variables; cognitive functioning and physical symptoms (P < 0.05). The effect of the neurosurgical treatment factor was not significant; however, the interaction effect of the two variables on social dysfunction, and total score of the GHQ-28 questionnaire appeared to be significant (P < 0.05). Fisher's exact test indicated that after a four month follow-up period, no significant differences were seen between the two groups (with or without neurosurgery) in the incidence of mental disorders, while χ(2) Test showed that having a more severe HI is significantly correlated with the incidence of mental disorders (P < 0.01). The implications of this study should be discussed with an emphasis on negative, effective factors on the cognitive

  19. The SOS model partition function and the elliptic weight functions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pakuliak, S; Silantyev, A; Rubtsov, V

    2008-01-01

    We generalized a recent observation (Khoroshkin and Pakuliak 2005 Theor. Math. Phys. 145 1373) that the partition function of the six-vertex model with domain wall boundary conditions can be obtained from a calculation of projections of the product of total currents in the quantum affine algebra U q (sl 2 -hat) in its current realization. A generalization is done for the elliptic current algebra (Enriquez and Felder 1998 Commun. Math. Phys. 195 651, Enriquez and Rubtsov 1997 Ann. Sci. Ecole Norm. Sup. 30 821). The projections of the product of total currents in this case are calculated explicitly and are presented as integral transforms of a product of the total currents. It is proved that the integral kernel of this transform is proportional to the partition function of the SOS model with domain wall boundary conditions

  20. Incidence of epilepsy among patients with cerebral palsy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pertin Sianturi

    2006-08-01

    Full Text Available Epilepsy is a chronic condition due to cerebral function disorders. Epilepsy occurs as a common complication of many neurological disorders such as cerebral palsy (CP that can affect further brain damage especially if they are with prolonged seizure. The incidence of epilepsy among patients with CP varies between 25-35%. The high incidence of epilepsy among patients with CP suggests that this disorder has common or related origins. We carried out the retrospective study to determine incidence of epilepsy among patients with CP registered within July 1988 to June 1998 in YPAC Medan and to determine whether the incidence of epilepsy differed according to type of CP. Data were compiled from medical records, including name, sex, parity, mothers age, prenatal, perinatal, and postnatal history, and EEG results. Data were analyzed using statistical computer program and its significance was evaluated by chi square test at p < 0,05. There were 67 cases with CP, 53 cases spastic CP, 13 cases mixed CP and one case dyskinetic CP. Of the 67 cases CP, 47,8% male, 52,2% female and mean age 50,3 (SD 36,9 months. There were 25 (37,3% patients CP associated with epilepsy, 72% general seizures, 20% partial seizures, and 8% infantile spasms. The incidence of epilepsy was significant different among patients with CP associated with type of CP and gestasional age, p < 0,05. We concluded that incidence of epilepsy among patients with CP in YPAC Medan was 37,3% and significantly different among patients with CP according to type CP and gestasional age.

  1. Ab initio derivation of model energy density functionals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dobaczewski, Jacek

    2016-01-01

    I propose a simple and manageable method that allows for deriving coupling constants of model energy density functionals (EDFs) directly from ab initio calculations performed for finite fermion systems. A proof-of-principle application allows for linking properties of finite nuclei, determined by using the nuclear nonlocal Gogny functional, to the coupling constants of the quasilocal Skyrme functional. The method does not rely on properties of infinite fermion systems but on the ab initio calculations in finite systems. It also allows for quantifying merits of different model EDFs in describing the ab initio results. (letter)

  2. Serum urate gene associations with incident gout, measured in the Framingham Heart Study, are modified by renal disease and not by body mass index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reynolds, Richard J; Vazquez, Ana I; Srinivasasainagendra, Vinodh; Klimentidis, Yann C; Bridges, S Louis; Allison, David B; Singh, Jasvinder A

    2016-02-01

    We hypothesized that serum urate-associated SNPs, individually or collectively, interact with BMI and renal disease to contribute to risk of incident gout. We measured the incidence of gout and associated comorbidities using the original and offspring cohorts of the Framingham Heart Study. We used direct and imputed genotypes for eight validated serum urate loci. We fit binomial regression models of gout incidence as a function of the covariates, age, type 2 diabetes, sex, and all main and interaction effects of the eight serum urate SNPs with BMI and renal disease. Models were also fit with a genetic risk score for serum urate levels which corresponds to the sum of risk alleles at the eight SNPs. Model covariates, age (P = 5.95E-06), sex (P = 2.46E-39), diabetes (P = 2.34E-07), BMI (P = 1.14E-11) and the SNPs, rs1967017 (P = 9.54E-03), rs13129697 (P = 4.34E-07), rs2199936 (P = 7.28E-03) and rs675209 (P = 4.84E-02) were all associated with incident gout. No BMI by SNP or BMI by serum urate genetic risk score interactions were statistically significant, but renal disease by rs1106766 was statistically significant (P = 6.12E-03). We demonstrated that minor alleles of rs1106766 (intergenic, INHBC) were negatively associated with the risk of incident gout in subjects without renal disease, but not for individuals with renal disease. These analyses demonstrate that a significant component of the risk of gout may involve complex interplay between genes and environment.

  3. Quasi-binary incident electron–centre of mass collision in (e, 3e ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    These two geometrical modes are such that the quasi-binary collision between the incident electron and centre of mass of the ejected electrons is in the scattering plane. The theoretical formalism has been developed using plane waves,. Le Sech wave function and approximated BBK-type wave function respectively for the.

  4. Quasi-binary incident electron–centre of mass collision in (e, 3e ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    These two geometrical modes are such that the quasi-binary collision between the incident electron and centre of mass of the ejected electrons is in the scattering plane. The theoretical formalism has been developed using plane waves, Le Sech wave function and approximated BBK-type wave function respectively for the ...

  5. BioModels: Content, Features, Functionality, and Use

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juty, N; Ali, R; Glont, M; Keating, S; Rodriguez, N; Swat, MJ; Wimalaratne, SM; Hermjakob, H; Le Novère, N; Laibe, C; Chelliah, V

    2015-01-01

    BioModels is a reference repository hosting mathematical models that describe the dynamic interactions of biological components at various scales. The resource provides access to over 1,200 models described in literature and over 140,000 models automatically generated from pathway resources. Most model components are cross-linked with external resources to facilitate interoperability. A large proportion of models are manually curated to ensure reproducibility of simulation results. This tutorial presents BioModels' content, features, functionality, and usage. PMID:26225232

  6. High energy model for irregular absorbing particles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiappetta, Pierre.

    1979-05-01

    In the framework of a high energy formulation of relativistic quantum scattering a model is presented which describes the scattering functions and polarization of irregular absorbing particles, whose dimensions are greater than the incident wavelength. More precisely in the forward direction an amplitude parametrization of eikonal type is defined which generalizes the usual diffraction theory, and in the backward direction a reflective model is used including a shadow function. The model predictions are in good agreement with the scattering measurements off irregular compact and fluffy particles performed by Zerull, Giese and Weiss (1977)

  7. HIV Treatment as Prevention: Systematic Comparison of Mathematical Models of the Potential Impact of Antiretroviral Therapy on HIV Incidence in South Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eaton, Jeffrey W.; Johnson, Leigh F.; Salomon, Joshua A.; Bärnighausen, Till; Bendavid, Eran; Bershteyn, Anna; Bloom, David E.; Cambiano, Valentina; Fraser, Christophe; Hontelez, Jan A. C.; Humair, Salal; Klein, Daniel J.; Long, Elisa F.; Phillips, Andrew N.; Pretorius, Carel; Stover, John; Wenger, Edward A.; Williams, Brian G.; Hallett, Timothy B.

    2012-01-01

    Background Many mathematical models have investigated the impact of expanding access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) on new HIV infections. Comparing results and conclusions across models is challenging because models have addressed slightly different questions and have reported different outcome metrics. This study compares the predictions of several mathematical models simulating the same ART intervention programmes to determine the extent to which models agree about the epidemiological impact of expanded ART. Methods and Findings Twelve independent mathematical models evaluated a set of standardised ART intervention scenarios in South Africa and reported a common set of outputs. Intervention scenarios systematically varied the CD4 count threshold for treatment eligibility, access to treatment, and programme retention. For a scenario in which 80% of HIV-infected individuals start treatment on average 1 y after their CD4 count drops below 350 cells/µl and 85% remain on treatment after 3 y, the models projected that HIV incidence would be 35% to 54% lower 8 y after the introduction of ART, compared to a counterfactual scenario in which there is no ART. More variation existed in the estimated long-term (38 y) reductions in incidence. The impact of optimistic interventions including immediate ART initiation varied widely across models, maintaining substantial uncertainty about the theoretical prospect for elimination of HIV from the population using ART alone over the next four decades. The number of person-years of ART per infection averted over 8 y ranged between 5.8 and 18.7. Considering the actual scale-up of ART in South Africa, seven models estimated that current HIV incidence is 17% to 32% lower than it would have been in the absence of ART. Differences between model assumptions about CD4 decline and HIV transmissibility over the course of infection explained only a modest amount of the variation in model results. Conclusions Mathematical models evaluating

  8. Deep inelastic structure functions in the chiral bag model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanjose, V.; Vento, V.; Centro Mixto CSIC/Valencia Univ., Valencia

    1989-01-01

    We calculate the structure functions for deep inelastic scattering on baryons in the cavity approximation to the chiral bag model. The behavior of these structure functions is analyzed in the Bjorken limit. We conclude that scaling is satisfied, but not Regge behavior. A trivial extension as a parton model can be achieved by introducing the structure function for the pion in a convolution picture. In this extended version of the model not only scaling but also Regge behavior is satisfied. Conclusions are drawn from the comparison of our results with experimental data. (orig.)

  9. Deep inelastic structure functions in the chiral bag model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sanjose, V. (Valencia Univ. (Spain). Dept. de Didactica de las Ciencias Experimentales); Vento, V. (Valencia Univ. (Spain). Dept. de Fisica Teorica; Centro Mixto CSIC/Valencia Univ., Valencia (Spain). Inst. de Fisica Corpuscular)

    1989-10-02

    We calculate the structure functions for deep inelastic scattering on baryons in the cavity approximation to the chiral bag model. The behavior of these structure functions is analyzed in the Bjorken limit. We conclude that scaling is satisfied, but not Regge behavior. A trivial extension as a parton model can be achieved by introducing the structure function for the pion in a convolution picture. In this extended version of the model not only scaling but also Regge behavior is satisfied. Conclusions are drawn from the comparison of our results with experimental data. (orig.).

  10. Diet models with linear goal programming: impact of achievement functions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerdessen, J C; de Vries, J H M

    2015-11-01

    Diet models based on goal programming (GP) are valuable tools in designing diets that comply with nutritional, palatability and cost constraints. Results derived from GP models are usually very sensitive to the type of achievement function that is chosen.This paper aims to provide a methodological insight into several achievement functions. It describes the extended GP (EGP) achievement function, which enables the decision maker to use either a MinSum achievement function (which minimizes the sum of the unwanted deviations) or a MinMax achievement function (which minimizes the largest unwanted deviation), or a compromise between both. An additional advantage of EGP models is that from one set of data and weights multiple solutions can be obtained. We use small numerical examples to illustrate the 'mechanics' of achievement functions. Then, the EGP achievement function is demonstrated on a diet problem with 144 foods, 19 nutrients and several types of palatability constraints, in which the nutritional constraints are modeled with fuzzy sets. Choice of achievement function affects the results of diet models. MinSum achievement functions can give rise to solutions that are sensitive to weight changes, and that pile all unwanted deviations on a limited number of nutritional constraints. MinMax achievement functions spread the unwanted deviations as evenly as possible, but may create many (small) deviations. EGP comprises both types of achievement functions, as well as compromises between them. It can thus, from one data set, find a range of solutions with various properties.

  11. The change in color matches with retinal angle of incidence of the colorimeter beams.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alpern, M; Kitahara, H; Fielder, G H

    1987-01-01

    Differences between W.D.W. chromaticities of monochromatic lights obtained with all colorimeter beams incident on the retina "off-axis" and those found for lights striking the retina normally have been studied throughout the visible spectrum on 4 normal trichromats. The results are inconsistent with: (i) the assumption in Weale's theories of the Stiles-Crawford hue shift that the sets of absorption spectra of the visual pigments catching normally and obliquely incident photons are identical, and (ii) "self-screening" explanations for the change in color with angle of incidence on the retina. The color matching functions of a protanomalous trichromat are inconsistent with the hypothesis that the absorption spectra of the visual pigments catching normally incident photons in his retina are those catching obliquely incident photons in the normal retina.

  12. Forensic reconstruction of two military combat related shooting incidents using an anatomically correct synthetic skull with a surrogate skin/soft tissue layer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahoney, Peter; Carr, Debra; Harrison, Karl; McGuire, Ruth; Hepper, Alan; Flynn, Daniel; Delaney, Russ J; Gibb, Iain

    2018-03-07

    Six synthetic head models wearing ballistic protective helmets were used to recreate two military combat-related shooting incidents (three per incident, designated 'Incident 1' and 'Incident 2'). Data on the events including engagement distances, weapon and ammunition types was collated by the Defence Science and Technology Laboratory. The models were shot with 7.62 × 39 mm ammunition downloaded to mean impact velocities of 581 m/s (SD 3.5 m/s) and 418 m/s (SD 8 m/s), respectively, to simulate the engagement distances. The damage to the models was assessed using CT imaging and dissection by a forensic pathologist experienced in reviewing military gunshot wounds. The helmets were examined by an MoD engineer experienced in ballistic incident analysis. Damage to the helmets was consistent with that seen in real incidents. Fracture patterns and CT imaging on two of the models for Incident 1 (a frontal impact) were congruent with the actual incident being modelled. The results for Incident 2 (a temporoparietal impact) produced realistic simulations of tangential gunshot injury but were less representative of the scenario being modelled. Other aspects of the wounds produced also exhibited differences. Further work is ongoing to develop the models for greater ballistic injury fidelity.

  13. Extracting classification rules from an informatic security incidents repository by genetic programming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Javier Carvajal Montealegre

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes the data mining process to obtain classification rules over an information security incident data collection, explaining in detail the use of genetic programming as a mean to model the incidents behavior and representing such rules as decision trees. The described mining process includes several tasks, such as the GP (Genetic Programming approach evaluation, the individual's representation and the algorithm parameters tuning to upgrade the performance. The paper concludes with the result analysis and the description of the rules obtained, suggesting measures to avoid the occurrence of new informatics attacks. This paper is a part of the thesis work degree: Information Security Incident Analytics by Data Mining for Behavioral Modeling and Pattern Recognition (Carvajal, 2012.

  14. Phospholipid transfer protein activity and incident type 2 diabetes mellitus

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Abbasi, Ali; Dallinga-Thie, Geesje M.; Dullaart, Robin P. F.

    2015-01-01

    The plasma activity of phospholipid transfer protein (PLTP), which has multifaceted functions in lipoprotein metabolism and in inflammatory responses, is elevated in insulin resistant conditions. We determined the association of plasma PLTP activity with incident type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM).

  15. Incidence of injury and physical performance adaptations during military training

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rosendal, Lars; Langberg, Henning; Skov-Jensen, Arne

    2003-01-01

    Strenuous physical activity, such as military training, is known to demand a high degree of physical performance and to cause overuse injuries. However, the exact relation between injury incidence and physical fitness level and the influence of military training on measures of functional...

  16. Longitudinal characterization of course types of functional limitations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Deeg, D.J.H.

    2005-01-01

    Purpose: Longitudinal data have provided evidence on factors that increase the risk of incidence of functional limitations. However, little insight exists in course types of functional limitations other than simple incidence or recovery. Methods: This contribution examines the variety of course

  17. Global sensitivity analysis of computer models with functional inputs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iooss, Bertrand; Ribatet, Mathieu

    2009-01-01

    Global sensitivity analysis is used to quantify the influence of uncertain model inputs on the response variability of a numerical model. The common quantitative methods are appropriate with computer codes having scalar model inputs. This paper aims at illustrating different variance-based sensitivity analysis techniques, based on the so-called Sobol's indices, when some model inputs are functional, such as stochastic processes or random spatial fields. In this work, we focus on large cpu time computer codes which need a preliminary metamodeling step before performing the sensitivity analysis. We propose the use of the joint modeling approach, i.e., modeling simultaneously the mean and the dispersion of the code outputs using two interlinked generalized linear models (GLMs) or generalized additive models (GAMs). The 'mean model' allows to estimate the sensitivity indices of each scalar model inputs, while the 'dispersion model' allows to derive the total sensitivity index of the functional model inputs. The proposed approach is compared to some classical sensitivity analysis methodologies on an analytical function. Lastly, the new methodology is applied to an industrial computer code that simulates the nuclear fuel irradiation.

  18. Reduced Rank Mixed Effects Models for Spatially Correlated Hierarchical Functional Data

    KAUST Repository

    Zhou, Lan

    2010-03-01

    Hierarchical functional data are widely seen in complex studies where sub-units are nested within units, which in turn are nested within treatment groups. We propose a general framework of functional mixed effects model for such data: within unit and within sub-unit variations are modeled through two separate sets of principal components; the sub-unit level functions are allowed to be correlated. Penalized splines are used to model both the mean functions and the principal components functions, where roughness penalties are used to regularize the spline fit. An EM algorithm is developed to fit the model, while the specific covariance structure of the model is utilized for computational efficiency to avoid storage and inversion of large matrices. Our dimension reduction with principal components provides an effective solution to the difficult tasks of modeling the covariance kernel of a random function and modeling the correlation between functions. The proposed methodology is illustrated using simulations and an empirical data set from a colon carcinogenesis study. Supplemental materials are available online.

  19. Epidemiology of biological-exposure incidents among Spanish healthcare workers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monge, V; Mato, G; Mariano, A; Fernández, C; Fereres, J

    2001-12-01

    To determine the frequency and the epidemiological characteristics of biological-exposure incidents occurring among healthcare personnel. Prospective surveillance study. Participating Spanish primary-care and specialty centers from January 1994 to December 1997. 70 centers in 1994, 87 in 1995, 97 in 1996, and 104 in 1997. Absolute and relative frequencies were calculated for several variables (position held, area of care, type of injuring object, activity, etc) and for the different categories of each variable. There were 20,235 registered incidents. Annual incidence rates were as follows: 1994, 51 per 1,000; 1995, 58 per 1,000, 1996, 54 per 1,000; and 1997, 59 per 1,000. Mean age of accident victims was as follows: 1994, 35.68 (standard deviation [SD], 16.26); 1995, 33.6 (SD, 11.9); 1996,38.2 (SD, 17.27); and 1997, 36.7 (SD, 16.33) years. Of the 20,235 incidents, 15,860 (80.7%) occurred to women; 50% (9,833) accidents were among nursing staff. The type of incident most frequently reported was percutaneous injury (81.1%). The highest frequency of accidents was seen in medical and surgical areas (28% and 25.6%, respectively). Blood and blood products were the most commonly involved material (87.6%). Administration of intramuscular or intravenous medication was the activity associated with the highest accident rate (20.3%). The most frequent immediate action in response was rinsing and disinfecting (65.6%). The incident registry was highly stable in terms of incidence rates over the observation period and served to highlight the large number of incidents recorded each year. The potential implications of the results are the need to explore reasons for increased exposures in certain areas, with the aim of focusing prevention efforts, and, similarly, to establish the factors associated with diminished incidence rates to model successful measures.

  20. Mechanism of low GVHD incidence in umbilical cord blood transplantation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Zhanying; Zhu Xuezhen; Zhang Lansheng; Zhu Shoupeng

    2000-01-01

    Objective: To compare the immunological function between umbilical cord blood (UCB) and peripheral blood, and to explore the mechanism of low incidence of graft-versus host disease (GVHD) in UCB transplantation. Methods: The proliferation assay, NK cell killing activity assay and immunologic fluorescence double label technique were used to study four sear effect on T cell immunologic function. Results: UCB serum could reduce K 562 cell activity, compared to that of adult serum. Furthermore, adult serum will enhanced the percentage of HLA-DR expression of T cells on PHA-stimulated PBMC, whereas fetal serum has no such effect. Both adult and fetal serum enhanced mitogen-specific T cell proliferation, the peak proliferative response could be reached with adult serum but not with fetal serum. Conclusion: There must be some soluble factors secreted into serum, which play a role in T cell activation and associate with the incidence of GVHD

  1. Impact of a smoking and alcohol intervention programme on lung and breast cancer incidence in Denmark: An example of dynamic modelling with Prevent

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Soerjomataram, Isabelle; de Vries, Esther; Engholm, Gerda

    2010-01-01

    Prevent v.3.01 to assess the changes in incidence as a result of risk factor changes. Incidence of lung and breast cancer until 2050 was predicted under two scenarios: ideal (total elimination of smoking and reduction of alcohol intake to maximum 1units/d for women) and optimistic (decreasing prevalence......PURPOSE: Among the known risk factors, smoking is clearly related to the incidence of lung cancer and alcohol consumption is to breast cancer. In this manuscript we modelled the potential benefits of reductions in smoking or alcohol prevalence for the burden of these cancers. METHOD: We used...... of risk factors because of a 10% increase in cigarette and alcohol beverage price, repeated every 5years). Danish data from the household surveys, cancer registration and Eurostat were used. RESULTS: Up to 49% less new lung cancer cases can be expected in 2050 if smoking were to be completely eliminated...

  2. Connecting to Get Things Done: A Conceptual Model of the Process Used to Respond to Bias Incidents

    Science.gov (United States)

    LePeau, Lucy A.; Morgan, Demetri L.; Zimmerman, Hilary B.; Snipes, Jeremy T.; Marcotte, Beth A.

    2016-01-01

    In this study, we interviewed victims of bias incidents and members of a bias response team to investigate the process the team used to respond to incidents. Incidents included acts of sexism, homophobia, and racism on a large, predominantly White research university in the Midwest. Data were analyzed using a 4-stage coding process. The emergent…

  3. Statistical Modelling of Resonant Cross Section Structure in URR, Model of the Characteristic Function

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koyumdjieva, N.

    2006-01-01

    A statistical model for the resonant cross section structure in the Unresolved Resonance Region has been developed in the framework of the R-matrix formalism in Reich Moore approach with effective accounting of the resonance parameters fluctuations. The model uses only the average resonance parameters and can be effectively applied for analyses of cross sections functional, averaged over many resonances. Those are cross section moments, transmission and self-indication functions measured through thick sample. In this statistical model the resonant cross sections structure is accepted to be periodic and the R-matrix is a function of ε=E/D with period 0≤ε≤N; R nc (ε)=π/2√(S n *S c )1/NΣ(i=1,N)(β in *β ic *ctg[π(ε i - = ε-iS i )/N]; Here S n ,S c ,S i is respectively neutron strength function, strength function for fission or inelastic channel and strength function for radiative capture, N is the number of resonances (ε i ,β i ) that obey the statistic of Porter-Thomas and Wigner's one. The simple case of this statistical model concerns the resonant cross section structure for non-fissile nuclei under the threshold for inelastic scattering - the model of the characteristic function with HARFOR program. In the above model some improvements of calculation of the phases and logarithmic derivatives of neutron channels have been done. In the parameterization we use the free parameter R l ∞ , which accounts the influence of long-distant resonances. The above scheme for statistical modelling of the resonant cross section structure has been applied for evaluation of experimental data for total, capture and inelastic cross sections for 232 Th in the URR (4-150) keV and also the transmission and self-indication functions in (4-175) keV. The set of evaluated average resonance parameters have been obtained. The evaluated average resonance parameters in the URR are consistent with those in the Resolved Resonance Region (CRP for Th-U cycle, Vienna, 2006

  4. Constructing a Model of Lottery Tax Incidence Measurement: Revisiting the Illinois Lottery Tax for Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daberkow, Kevin S.; Lin, Wei

    2012-01-01

    Nearly half a century of lottery scholarship has measured lottery tax incidence predominantly through either the Suits Index or regression analysis. The present study builds on historic lottery tax burden measurement to present a comprehensive set of tools to determine the tax incidence of individual games in addition to determining which lottery…

  5. Simulation model of lung cancer incidence related to smoking and radon daughter exposure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stolowijk, J.A.J.

    1990-01-01

    A mathematical model of lung cancer and radon daughter exposure is presented. It is aimed to provide a quantitative estimate in the form of dose-effect relationship. The nature of the cigarette smoking and radon exposure interaction it is shown to be a multiplicative or sub-multiplicative function rather than a simpler model in which the effect of the two exposures would be summed. The model was written in the SAS programming language. An annotated listing of the program is given. 4 refs

  6. Cigarette Smoking and Incident Heart Failure: Insights From the Jackson Heart Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamimura, Daisuke; Cain, Loretta R; Mentz, Robert J; White, Wendy B; Blaha, Michael J; DeFilippis, Andrew P; Fox, Ervin R; Rodriguez, Carlos J; Keith, Rachel J; Benjamin, Emelia J; Butler, Javed; Bhatnagar, Aruni; Robertson, Rose M; Winniford, Michael D; Correa, Adolfo; Hall, Michael E

    2018-06-12

    Cigarette smoking has been linked with several factors associated with cardiac dysfunction. We hypothesized that cigarette smoking is associated with left ventricular (LV) structure and function, and incident heart failure (HF) hospitalization. We investigated 4129 (never smoker n=2884, current smoker n=503, and former smoker n=742) black participants (mean age, 54 years; 63% women) without a history of HF or coronary heart disease at baseline in the Jackson Heart Study. We examined the relationships between cigarette smoking and LV structure and function by using cardiac magnetic resonance imaging among 1092 participants, cigarette smoking and brain natriuretic peptide levels among 3325 participants, and incident HF hospitalization among 3633 participants with complete data. After adjustment for confounding factors, current smoking was associated with higher mean LV mass index and lower mean LV circumferential strain ( P <0.05, for both) in comparison with never smoking. Smoking status, intensity, and burden were associated with higher mean brain natriuretic peptide levels (all P <0.05). Over 8.0 years (7.7-8.0) median follow-up, there were 147 incident HF hospitalizations. After adjustment for traditional risk factors and incident coronary heart disease, current smoking (hazard ratio, 2.82; 95% confidence interval, 1.71-4.64), smoking intensity among current smokers (≥20 cigarettes/d: hazard ratio, 3.48; 95% confidence interval, 1.65-7.32), and smoking burden among ever smokers (≥15 pack-years: hazard ratio, 2.06; 95% confidence interval, 1.29-3.3) were significantly associated with incident HF hospitalization in comparison with never smoking. In blacks, cigarette smoking is an important risk factor for LV hypertrophy, systolic dysfunction, and incident HF hospitalization even after adjusting for effects on coronary heart disease. © 2018 American Heart Association, Inc.

  7. Psychiatric disease incidence among Danish Seventh-day Adventists and Baptists.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thygesen, Lau Caspar; Dalton, Susanne Oksbjerg; Johansen, Christoffer; Ross, Lone; Kessing, Lars Vedel; Hvidt, Niels Christian

    2013-10-01

    Previous studies suggest that religious practice can have a positive effect on mental health, but may also have potential for harm. In Denmark, unique possibilities are available for studying the influence of religious practice on mental health: Denmark is characterized as a secular society and it is possible to follow members of religious societies in nationwide registers. In this study, we follow a cohort of Danish Seventh-day Adventists (SDA) and Baptists in a nationwide psychiatry register and compare the incidence in this cohort with the general population. We followed a cohort of 5,614 SDA and 3,663 Baptists in the Danish Psychiatric Central Register, which contained information on psychiatric hospitalizations from 1970 to 2009. Psychiatric disease incidence in the cohort was compared with that in the general Danish population as standardized incidence ratios and within-cohort comparisons were made with a Cox model. The cohort had decreased incidence of abuse disorders compared to the general population. Furthermore, among Baptists, decreased incidence of unipolar disorders among men and decreased incidence of schizophrenia among women were observed. Surprisingly, we observed an increased incidence rate of unipolar disorder among women. In this nationwide cohort study with 40 years of follow-up, we observed increased incidence rates of unipolar disorders among women and decreased rates of alcohol- and drug-related psychiatric disorders compared to the general Danish population. We have no mechanistic explanation for the increased incidence of unipolar disorders among women, but discuss several hypotheses that could explain this observation.

  8. Experimental analysis of bidirectional reflectance distribution function cross section conversion term in direction cosine space.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butler, Samuel D; Nauyoks, Stephen E; Marciniak, Michael A

    2015-06-01

    Of the many classes of bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) models, two popular classes of models are the microfacet model and the linear systems diffraction model. The microfacet model has the benefit of speed and simplicity, as it uses geometric optics approximations, while linear systems theory uses a diffraction approach to compute the BRDF, at the expense of greater computational complexity. In this Letter, nongrazing BRDF measurements of rough and polished surface-reflecting materials at multiple incident angles are scaled by the microfacet cross section conversion term, but in the linear systems direction cosine space, resulting in great alignment of BRDF data at various incident angles in this space. This results in a predictive BRDF model for surface-reflecting materials at nongrazing angles, while avoiding some of the computational complexities in the linear systems diffraction model.

  9. Driver steering model for closed-loop steering function analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bolia, Pratiksh; Weiskircher, Thomas; Müller, Steffen

    2014-05-01

    In this paper, a two level preview driver steering control model for the use in numerical vehicle dynamics simulation is introduced. The proposed model is composed of cascaded control loops: The outer loop is the path following layer based on potential field framework. The inner loop tries to capture the driver's physical behaviour. The proposed driver model allows easy implementation of different driving situations to simulate a wide range of different driver types, moods and vehicle types. The expediency of the proposed driver model is shown with the help of developed driver steering assist (DSA) function integrated with a conventional series production (Electric Power steering System with rack assist servo unit) system. With the help of the DSA assist function, the driver is prevented from over saturating the front tyre forces and loss of stability and controllability during cornering. The simulation results show different driver reactions caused by the change in the parameters or properties of the proposed driver model if the DSA assist function is activated. Thus, the proposed driver model is useful for the advanced driver steering and vehicle stability assist function evaluation in the early stage of vehicle dynamics handling and stability evaluation.

  10. Distinguishing Differential Testlet Functioning from Differential Bundle Functioning Using the Multilevel Measurement Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beretvas, S. Natasha; Walker, Cindy M.

    2012-01-01

    This study extends the multilevel measurement model to handle testlet-based dependencies. A flexible two-level testlet response model (the MMMT-2 model) for dichotomous items is introduced that permits assessment of differential testlet functioning (DTLF). A distinction is made between this study's conceptualization of DTLF and that of…

  11. A general phenomenological model for work function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brodie, I.; Chou, S. H.; Yuan, H.

    2014-07-01

    A general phenomenological model is presented for obtaining the zero Kelvin work function of any crystal facet of metals and semiconductors, both clean and covered with a monolayer of electropositive atoms. It utilizes the known physical structure of the crystal and the Fermi energy of the two-dimensional electron gas assumed to form on the surface. A key parameter is the number of electrons donated to the surface electron gas per surface lattice site or adsorbed atom, which is taken to be an integer. Initially this is found by trial and later justified by examining the state of the valence electrons of the relevant atoms. In the case of adsorbed monolayers of electropositive atoms a satisfactory justification could not always be found, particularly for cesium, but a trial value always predicted work functions close to the experimental values. The model can also predict the variation of work function with temperature for clean crystal facets. The model is applied to various crystal faces of tungsten, aluminium, silver, and select metal oxides, and most demonstrate good fits compared to available experimental values.

  12. Functional results-oriented healthcare leadership: a novel leadership model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Touby, Salem Said

    2012-03-01

    This article modifies the traditional functional leadership model to accommodate contemporary needs in healthcare leadership based on two findings. First, the article argues that it is important that the ideal healthcare leadership emphasizes the outcomes of the patient care more than processes and structures used to deliver such care; and secondly, that the leadership must strive to attain effectiveness of their care provision and not merely targeting the attractive option of efficient operations. Based on these premises, the paper reviews the traditional Functional Leadership Model and the three elements that define the type of leadership an organization has namely, the tasks, the individuals, and the team. The article argues that concentrating on any one of these elements is not ideal and proposes adding a new element to the model to construct a novel Functional Result-Oriented healthcare leadership model. The recommended Functional-Results Oriented leadership model embosses the results element on top of the other three elements so that every effort on healthcare leadership is directed towards attaining excellent patient outcomes.

  13. Report: Improvements Needed in CSB’s Identity and Access Management and Incident Response Security Functions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Report #18-P-0030, October 30, 2017. Weaknesses in the Identity and Access Management and Incident Response metric domains leave the CSB vulnerable to attacks occurring and not being detected in a timely manner.

  14. Link State Relationships Under Incident Conditions: Using a CTM-Based Linear Programming Dynamic Traffic Assignment Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-03-01

    Urban transportation networks, consisting of numerous links and nodes, experience traffic incidents such as accidents and road maintenance work. A typical consequence of incidents is congestion which results in long queues and causes high travel time...

  15. Link state relationships under incident conditions : using a CTM-based linear programming dynamic traffic assignment model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-03-01

    Urban transportation networks, consisting of numerous links and nodes, experience traffic incidents such as accidents and road : maintenance work. A typical consequence of incidents is congestion which results in long queues and causes high travel ti...

  16. Mathematical Models of Cardiac Pacemaking Function

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pan eLi

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Over the past half century, there has been intense and fruitful interaction between experimental and computational investigations of cardiac function. This interaction has, for example, led to deep understanding of cardiac excitation-contraction coupling; how it works, as well as how it fails. However, many lines of inquiry remain unresolved, among them the initiation of each heartbeat. The sinoatrial node, a cluster of specialized pacemaking cells in the right atrium of the heart, spontaneously generates an electro-chemical wave that spreads through the atria and through the cardiac conduction system to the ventricles, initiating the contraction of cardiac muscle essential for pumping blood to the body. Despite the fundamental importance of this primary pacemaker, this process is still not fully understood, and ionic mechanisms underlying cardiac pacemaking function are currently under heated debate. Several mathematical models of sinoatrial node cell membrane electrophysiology have been constructed as based on different experimental data sets and hypotheses. As could be expected, these differing models offer diverse predictions about cardiac pacemaking activities. This paper aims to present the current state of debate over the origins of the pacemaking function of the sinoatrial node. Here, we will specifically review the state-of-the-art of cardiac pacemaker modeling, with a special emphasis on current discrepancies, limitations, and future challenges.

  17. Filaggrin loss-of-function mutations and incident cancer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skaaby, T; Husemoen, L L N; Thyssen, J P

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Loss-of-function mutations in the filaggrin gene (FLG) could have opposing effects on cancer risk, as mutations are associated with both 10% higher serum vitamin D levels, which may protect against cancer, and with impaired skin barrier function, which may lead to higher cancer...... (HR 1·09, 95% CI 0·61-1·94), urinary cancer (HR 1·30, 95% CI 0·51-3·29), malignant melanoma (HR 1·03, 95% CI 0·41-2·58) and NMSC (HR 0·70, 95% CI 0·47-1·05). Among participants aged over 60 years at baseline, we found statistically significant lower risks of all cancers and NMSC among FLG mutation...

  18. Feasibility of Incremental 2-Times Weekly Hemodialysis in Incident Patients With Residual Kidney Function

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew I. Chin

    2017-09-01

    Discussion: More than 50% of incident HD patients with RKF have adequate kidney urea clearance to be considered for 2-times weekly HD. When additionally ultrafiltration volume and blood pressure stability are taken into account, more than one-fourth of the total cohort could optimally start HD in an incremental fashion.

  19. Incident energy dependence of pt correlations at relativistic energies

    CERN Document Server

    Adams, J; Ahammed, Z; Amonett, J; Anderson, B D; Arkhipkin, D; Averichev, G S; Badyal, S K; Bai, Y; Balewski, J; Barannikova, O; Barnby, L S; Baudot, J; Bekele, S; Belaga, V V; Bellingeri-Laurikainen, A; Bellwied, R; Berger, J; Bezverkhny, B I; Bharadwaj, S; Bhasin, A; Bhati, A K; Bhatia, V S; Bichsel, H; Bielcik, J; Bielcikova, J; Billmeier, A; Bland, L C; Blyth, C O; Bonner, B E; Botje, M; Boucham, A; Bouchet, J; Brandin, A V; Bravar, A; Bystersky, M; Cadman, R V; Cai, X Z; Caines, H; Calderón de la Barca-Sanchez, M; Castillo, J; Catu, O; Cebra, D; Chajecki, Z; Chaloupka, P; Chattopadhyay, S; Chen, H F; Chen, Y; Cheng, J; Cherney, M; Chikanian, A; Christie, W; Coffin, J P; Cormier, T M; Cramer, J G; Crawford, H J; Das, D; Das, S; Daugherity, M; De Moura, M M; Dedovich, T G; Derevshchikov, A A; Didenko, L; Dietel, T; Dogra, S M; Dong, W J; Dong, X; Draper, J E; Du, F; Dubey, A K; Dunin, V B; Dunlop, J C; Dutta, M R; Mazumdar; Eckardt, V; Edwards, W R; Efimov, L G; Emelianov, V; Engelage, J; Eppley, G; Erazmus, B; Estienne, M; Fachini, P; Faivre, J; Fatemi, R; Fedorisin, J; Filimonov, K; Filip, P; Finch, E; Fine, V; Fisyak, Yu; Fu, J; Gagliardi, C A; Gaillard, L; Gans, J; Ganti, M S; Geurts, F; Ghazikhanian, V; Ghosh, P; González, J E; Gos, H; Grachov, O; Grebenyuk, O; Grosnick, D P; Guertin, S M; Guo, Y; Sen-Gupta, A; Gutíerrez, T D; Hallman, T J; Hamed, A; Hardtke, D; Harris, J W; Heinz, M; Henry, T W; Hepplemann, S; Hippolyte, B; Hirsch, A; Hjort, E; Hoffmann, G W; Huang, H Z; Huang, S L; Hughes, E W; Humanic, T J; Igo, G; Ishihara, A; Jacobs, P; Jacobs, W W; Jedynak, M; Jiang, H; Jones, P G; Judd, E G; Kabana, S; Kang, K; Kaplan, M; Keane, D; Kechechyan, A; Khodyrev, V Yu; Kiryluk, J; Kisiel, A; Kislov, E M; Klay, J; Klein, S R; Koetke, D D; Kollegger, T; Kopytine, M; Kotchenda, L; Kowalik, K L; Krämer, M; Kravtsov, P; Kravtsov, V I; Krüger, K; Kuhn, C; Kulikov, A I; Kumar, A; Kutuev, R K; Kuznetsov, A A; Lamont, M A C; Landgraf, J M; Lange, S; Laue, F; Lauret, J; Lebedev, A; Lednicky, R; Lehocka, S; Le Vine, M J; Li, C; Li, Q; Li, Y; Lin, G; Lindenbaum, S J; Lisa, M A; Liu, F; Liu, H; Liu, L; Liu, Q J; Liu, Z; Ljubicic, T; Llope, W J; Long, H; Longacre, R S; López-Noriega, M; Love, W A; Lu, Y; Ludlam, T; Lynn, D; Ma, G L; Ma, J G; Ma, Y G; Magestro, D; Mahajan, S; Mahapatra, D P; Majka, R; Mangotra, L K; Manweiler, R; Margetis, S; Markert, C; Martin, L; Marx, J N; Matis, H S; Matulenko, Yu A; McClain, C J; McShane, T S; Meissner, F; Melnik, Yu M; Meschanin, A; Miller, M L; Minaev, N G; Mironov, C; Mischke, A; Mishra, D K; Mitchell, J; Mohanty, B; Molnár, L; Moore, C F; Morozov, D A; Munhoz, M G; Nandi, B K; Nayak, S K; Nayak, T K; Nelson, J M; Netrakanti, P K; Nikitin, V A; Nogach, L V; Nurushev, S B; Odyniec, Grazyna Janina; Ogawa, A; Okorokov, V; Oldenburg, M; Olson, D; Pal, S K; Panebratsev, Yu A; Panitkin, S Y; Pavlinov, A I; Pawlak, T; Peitzmann, T; Perevozchikov, V; Perkins, C; Peryt, W; Petrov, V A; Phatak, S C; Picha, R; Planinic, M; Pluta, J; Porile, N; Porter, J; Poskanzer, A M; Potekhin, M V; Potrebenikova, E V; Potukuchi, B V K S; Prindle, D; Pruneau, C A; Putschke, J; Rakness, G; Raniwala, R; Raniwala, S; Ravel, O; Ray, R L; Razin, S V; Reichhold, D M; Reid, J G; Reinnarth, J; Renault, G; Retière, F; Ridiger, A; Ritter, H G; Roberts, J B; Rogachevski, O V; Romero, J L; Rose, A; Roy, C; Ruan, L; Russcher, M; Sahoo, R; Sakrejda, I; Salur, S; Sandweiss, J; Sarsour, M; Savin, I; Sazhin, P S; Schambach, J; Scharenberg, R P; Schmitz, N; Schweda, K; Seger, J; Seyboth, P; Shahaliev, E; Shao, M; Shao, W; Sharma, M; Shen, W Q; Shestermanov, K E; Shimansky, S S; Sichtermann, E P; Simon, F; Singaraju, R N; Smirnov, N; Snellings, R; Sood, G; Sørensen, P; Sowinski, J; Speltz, J; Spinka, H M; Srivastava, B; Stadnik, A; Stanislaus, T D S; Stock, R; Stolpovsky, A; Strikhanov, M N; Stringfellow, B C; Suaide, A A P; Sugarbaker, E R; Suire, C; Sumbera, M; Surrow, B; Swanger, M; Symons, T J M; Szanto de Toledo, A; Tai, A; Takahashi, J; Tang, A H; Tarnowsky, T J; Thein, D; Thomas, J H; Timoshenko, S; Tokarev, M; Trentalange, S; Tribble, R E; Tsai, O D; Ulery, J; Ullrich, T; Underwood, D G; Van Buren, G; Van Leeuwen, M; Van der Molen, A M; Varma, R; Vasilevski, I M; Vasilev, A N; Vernet, R; Vigdor, S E; Viyogi, Y P; Vokal, S; Voloshin, S A; Waggoner, W T; Wang, F; Wang, G; Wang, X L; Wang, Y; Wang, Z M; Ward, H; Watson, J W; Webb, J C; Westfall, G D; Wetzler, A; Whitten, C; Wieman, H; Wissink, S W; Witt, R; Wood, J; Wu, J; Xu, N; Xu, Z; Xu, Z Z; Yamamoto, E; Yepes, P; Yurevich, V I; Zborovský, I; Zhang, H; Zhang, W M; Zhang, Y; Zhang, Z P; Zoulkarneev, R; Zoulkarneeva, Y; Zubarev, A N

    2005-01-01

    We present results for two-particle transverse momentum correlations, , as a function of event centrality for Au+Au collisions at sqrt(sNN) = 20, 62, 130, and 200 GeV at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider. We observe correlations decreasing with centrality that are similar at all four incident energies. The correlations multiplied by the multiplicity density increase with incident energy and the centrality dependence may show evidence of processes such as thermalization, minijet production, or the saturation of transverse flow. The square root of the correlations divided by the event-wise average transverse momentum per event shows little or no beam energy dependence and generally agrees with previous measurements at the Super Proton Synchrotron.

  20. Exploring the Influence of Nurse Work Environment and Patient Safety Culture on Attitudes Toward Incident Reporting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoo, Moon Sook; Kim, Kyoung Ja

    2017-09-01

    The aim of this study was to explore the influence of nurse work environments and patient safety culture on attitudes toward incident reporting. Patient safety culture had been known as a factor of incident reporting by nurses. Positive work environment could be an important influencing factor for the safety behavior of nurses. A cross-sectional survey design was used. The structured questionnaire was administered to 191 nurses working at a tertiary university hospital in South Korea. Nurses' perception of work environment and patient safety culture were positively correlated with attitudes toward incident reporting. A regression model with clinical career, work area and nurse work environment, and patient safety culture against attitudes toward incident reporting was statistically significant. The model explained approximately 50.7% of attitudes toward incident reporting. Improving nurses' attitudes toward incident reporting can be achieved with a broad approach that includes improvements in work environment and patient safety culture.

  1. Public Health Response Systems In-Action: Learning from Local Health Departments’ Experiences with Acute and Emergency Incidents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunter, Jennifer C.; Yang, Jane E.; Crawley, Adam W.; Biesiadecki, Laura; Aragón, Tomás J.

    2013-01-01

    As part of their core mission, public health agencies attend to a wide range of disease and health threats, including those that require routine, acute, and emergency responses. While each incident is unique, the number and type of response activities are finite; therefore, through comparative analysis, we can learn about commonalities in the response patterns that could improve predictions and expectations regarding the resources and capabilities required to respond to future acute events. In this study, we interviewed representatives from more than 120 local health departments regarding their recent experiences with real-world acute public health incidents, such as infectious disease outbreaks, severe weather events, chemical spills, and bioterrorism threats. We collected highly structured data on key aspects of the incident and the public health response, particularly focusing on the public health activities initiated and community partners engaged in the response efforts. As a result, we are able to make comparisons across event types, create response profiles, and identify functional and structural response patterns that have import for future public health preparedness and response. Our study contributes to clarifying the complexity of public health response systems and our analysis reveals the ways in which these systems are adaptive to the character of the threat, resulting in differential activation of functions and partners based on the type of incident. Continued and rigorous examination of the experiences of health departments throughout the nation will refine our very understanding of what the public health response system is, will enable the identification of organizational and event inputs to performance, and will allow for the construction of rich, relevant, and practical models of response operations that can be employed to strengthen public health systems. PMID:24236137

  2. Breast cancer risk in atomic bomb survivors from multi-model inference with incidence data 1958-1998

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaiser, J.C.; Jacob, P.; Meckbach, R.; Cullings, H.M.

    2012-01-01

    Breast cancer risk from radiation exposure has been analyzed in the cohort of Japanese a-bomb survivors using empirical models and mechanistic two-step clonal expansion (TSCE) models with incidence data from 1958 to 1998. TSCE models rely on a phenomenological representation of cell transition processes on the path to cancer. They describe the data as good as empirical models and this fact has been exploited for risk assessment. Adequate models of both types have been selected with a statistical protocol based on parsimonious parameter deployment and their risk estimates have been combined using multi-model inference techniques. TSCE models relate the radiation risk to cell processes which are controlled by age-increasing rates of initiating mutations and by changes in hormone levels due to menopause. For exposure at young age, they predict an enhanced excess relative risk (ERR) whereas the preferred empirical model shows no dependence on age at exposure. At attained age 70, the multi-model median of the ERR at 1 Gy decreases moderately from 1.2 Gy"-"1 (90% CI 0.72; 2.1) for exposure at age 25 to a 30% lower value for exposure at age 55. For cohort strata with few cases, where model predictions diverge, uncertainty intervals from multi-model inference are enhanced by up to a factor of 1.6 compared to the preferred empirical model. Multi-model inference provides a joint risk estimate from several plausible models rather than relying on a single model of choice. It produces more reliable point estimates and improves the characterization of uncertainties. The method is recommended for risk assessment in practical radiation protection. (orig.)

  3. Breast cancer risk in atomic bomb survivors from multi-model inference with incidence data 1958-1998

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kaiser, J.C.; Jacob, P.; Meckbach, R. [Institute of Radiation Protection, Helmholtz-Zentrum Muenchen, German Research Centre for Environmental Health, Neuherberg (Germany); Cullings, H.M. [Radiation Effects Research Foundation, Department of Statistics, Hiroshima (Japan)

    2012-03-15

    Breast cancer risk from radiation exposure has been analyzed in the cohort of Japanese a-bomb survivors using empirical models and mechanistic two-step clonal expansion (TSCE) models with incidence data from 1958 to 1998. TSCE models rely on a phenomenological representation of cell transition processes on the path to cancer. They describe the data as good as empirical models and this fact has been exploited for risk assessment. Adequate models of both types have been selected with a statistical protocol based on parsimonious parameter deployment and their risk estimates have been combined using multi-model inference techniques. TSCE models relate the radiation risk to cell processes which are controlled by age-increasing rates of initiating mutations and by changes in hormone levels due to menopause. For exposure at young age, they predict an enhanced excess relative risk (ERR) whereas the preferred empirical model shows no dependence on age at exposure. At attained age 70, the multi-model median of the ERR at 1 Gy decreases moderately from 1.2 Gy{sup -1} (90% CI 0.72; 2.1) for exposure at age 25 to a 30% lower value for exposure at age 55. For cohort strata with few cases, where model predictions diverge, uncertainty intervals from multi-model inference are enhanced by up to a factor of 1.6 compared to the preferred empirical model. Multi-model inference provides a joint risk estimate from several plausible models rather than relying on a single model of choice. It produces more reliable point estimates and improves the characterization of uncertainties. The method is recommended for risk assessment in practical radiation protection. (orig.)

  4. Hierarchical functional model for automobile development; Jidosha kaihatsu no tame no kaisogata kino model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sumida, S [U-shin Ltd., Tokyo (Japan); Nagamatsu, M; Maruyama, K [Hokkaido Institute of Technology, Sapporo (Japan); Hiramatsu, S [Mazda Motor Corp., Hiroshima (Japan)

    1997-10-01

    A new approach on modeling is put forward in order to compose the virtual prototype which is indispensable for fully computer integrated concurrent development of automobile product. A basic concept of the hierarchical functional model is proposed as the concrete form of this new modeling technology. This model is used mainly for explaining and simulating functions and efficiencies of both the parts and the total product of automobile. All engineers who engage themselves in design and development of automobile can collaborate with one another using this model. Some application examples are shown, and usefulness of this model is demonstrated. 5 refs., 5 figs.

  5. Thyroid cancer incidence in the Ukraine after the Chernobyl accident: comparison with spontaneous incidences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sobolev, B.; Kairo, I.; Likhtarev, I.; Heidenreich, W.F.; Jacob, P.; Goulko, G.

    1997-01-01

    The thyroid cancer incidence in the Ukraine among those born in the period 1968-1986 was analyzed with the aim to identify the enhancement due to the Chernobyl accident. Since any Ukrainian data referring to the time period before the accident are scarce and the variation of spontaneous incidences in other countries is immense, the Ukrainian incidences in the period 1986-1989 were used to estimate the baseline risk. Following 1990, the incidence in the southern part of the Ukraine increased by about 30%, independent of age. In the other parts the increase of the incidence depended on age at exposure. In the age group of 9-year-old children, the incidences in three regions defined as the 'high-dose area', the northern, and the middle oblasts, increased by factors of 50, 20, and 6, respectively. These rates (1991-1995) are well above spontaneous rates in other countries. In the age group of 17-year-old juveniles, the incidence increased by a factor of 6 for the 'high dose area' and in the three northern oblasts, whereas in the nine 'middle' oblasts it was similar to the incidence of the 'southern' Ukraine. These rates are within the range found in other countries. (orig.)

  6. Apply Functional Modelling to Consequence Analysis in Supervision Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, Xinxin; Lind, Morten; Gola, Giulio

    2013-01-01

    This paper will first present the purpose and goals of applying functional modelling approach to consequence analysis by adopting Multilevel Flow Modelling (MFM). MFM Models describe a complex system in multiple abstraction levels in both means-end dimension and whole-part dimension. It contains...... consequence analysis to practical or online applications in supervision systems. It will also suggest a multiagent solution as the integration architecture for developing tools to facilitate the utilization results of functional consequence analysis. Finally a prototype of the multiagent reasoning system...... causal relations between functions and goals. A rule base system can be developed to trace the causal relations and perform consequence propagations. This paper will illustrate how to use MFM for consequence reasoning by using rule base technology and describe the challenges for integrating functional...

  7. Research of an emergency medical system for mass casualty incidents in Shanghai, China: a system dynamics model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Wenya; Lv, Yipeng; Hu, Chaoqun; Liu, Xu; Chen, Haiping; Xue, Chen; Zhang, Lulu

    2018-01-01

    Emergency medical system for mass casualty incidents (EMS-MCIs) is a global issue. However, China lacks such studies extremely, which cannot meet the requirement of rapid decision-support system. This study aims to realize modeling EMS-MCIs in Shanghai, to improve mass casualty incident (MCI) rescue efficiency in China, and to provide a possible method of making rapid rescue decisions during MCIs. This study established a system dynamics (SD) model of EMS-MCIs using the Vensim DSS program. Intervention scenarios were designed as adjusting scales of MCIs, allocation of ambulances, allocation of emergency medical staff, and efficiency of organization and command. Mortality increased with the increasing scale of MCIs, medical rescue capability of hospitals was relatively good, but the efficiency of organization and command was poor, and the prehospital time was too long. Mortality declined significantly when increasing ambulances and improving the efficiency of organization and command; triage and on-site first-aid time were shortened if increasing the availability of emergency medical staff. The effect was the most evident when 2,000 people were involved in MCIs; however, the influence was very small under the scale of 5,000 people. The keys to decrease the mortality of MCIs were shortening the prehospital time and improving the efficiency of organization and command. For small-scale MCIs, improving the utilization rate of health resources was important in decreasing the mortality. For large-scale MCIs, increasing the number of ambulances and emergency medical professionals was the core to decrease prehospital time and mortality. For super-large-scale MCIs, increasing health resources was the premise.

  8. Study of charged multiplicities and double scattering in anti pd interactions between 3 and 15 GeV/c incident momentum. General aspects of annihilation reactions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Michalon-Mentzer, Marie-Eve.

    1979-01-01

    From a study of the charged multiplicity distributions, antipd and antipn interactions in the range of incident momentum going from 3 to 15 GeV/c have been analysed. The antipd and antipn topological cross sections have been calculated. The behavior of the different statistical moments obtained from the charged multiplicities as function of the incident momentum have been studied. We have analysed rescattering phenomena inside the deuteron and the rescattering fraction per antipd collisions was found to be of the order of 20%. Data are in good agreement with the predictions of the energy flux cascade model and the coherent tube model. General features of the antipn annihilation processes have been also studied in particular by means of collective variables like sphericity and thrust which describe jets properties or alignment effects of interactions [fr

  9. Analysis of in vitro and in vivo function of total knee replacements using dynamic contact models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Dong

    Despite the high incidence of osteoarthritis in human knee joint, its causes remain unknown. Total knee replacement (TKR) has been shown clinically to be effective in restoring the knee function. However, wear of ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene has limited the longevity of TKRs. To address these important issues, it is necessary to investigate the in vitro and in vivo function of total knee replacements using dynamic contact models. A multibody dynamic model of an AMTI knee simulator was developed. Incorporating a wear prediction model into the contact model based on elastic foundation theory enables the contact surface to take into account creep and wear during the dynamic simulation. Comparisons of the predicted damage depth, area, and volume lost with worn retrievals from a physical machine were made to validate the model. In vivo tibial force distributions during dynamic and high flexion activities were investigated using the dynamic contact model. In vivo medial and lateral contact forces experienced by a well-aligned instrumented knee implant, as well as upper and lower bounds on contact pressures for a variety of activities were studied. For all activities, the predicted medial and lateral contact forces were insensitive to the selected material model. For this patient, the load split during the mid-stance phase of gait and during stair is more equal than anticipated. The external knee adduction torque has been proposed as a surrogate measure for medial compartment load during gait. However, a direct link between these two quantities has not been demonstrated using in vivo measurement of medial compartment load. In vivo data collected from a subject with an instrumented knee implant were analyzed to evaluate this link. The subject performed five different overground gait motions (normal, fast, slow, wide, and toe out) while instrumented implant, video motion, and ground reaction data were simultaneously collected. The high correlation coefficient

  10. Predicting hepatitis B monthly incidence rates using weighted Markov chains and time series methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shahdoust, Maryam; Sadeghifar, Majid; Poorolajal, Jalal; Javanrooh, Niloofar; Amini, Payam

    2015-01-01

    Hepatitis B (HB) is a major global mortality. Accurately predicting the trend of the disease can provide an appropriate view to make health policy disease prevention. This paper aimed to apply three different to predict monthly incidence rates of HB. This historical cohort study was conducted on the HB incidence data of Hamadan Province, the west of Iran, from 2004 to 2012. Weighted Markov Chain (WMC) method based on Markov chain theory and two time series models including Holt Exponential Smoothing (HES) and SARIMA were applied on the data. The results of different applied methods were compared to correct percentages of predicted incidence rates. The monthly incidence rates were clustered into two clusters as state of Markov chain. The correct predicted percentage of the first and second clusters for WMC, HES and SARIMA methods was (100, 0), (84, 67) and (79, 47) respectively. The overall incidence rate of HBV is estimated to decrease over time. The comparison of results of the three models indicated that in respect to existing seasonality trend and non-stationarity, the HES had the most accurate prediction of the incidence rates.

  11. Function-centered modeling of engineering systems using the goal tree-success tree technique and functional primitives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Modarres, Mohammad; Cheon, Se Woo

    1999-01-01

    Most of the complex systems are formed through some hierarchical evolution. Therefore, those systems can be best described through hierarchical frameworks. This paper describes some fundamental attributes of complex physical systems and several hierarchies such as functional, behavioral, goal/condition, and event hierarchies, then presents a function-centered approach to system modeling. Based on the function-centered concept, this paper describes the joint goal tree-success tree (GTST) and the master logic diagram (MLD) as a framework for developing models of complex physical systems. A function-based lexicon for classifying the most common elements of engineering systems for use in the GTST-MLD framework has been proposed. The classification is based on the physical conservation laws that govern the engineering systems. Functional descriptions based on conservation laws provide a simple and rich vocabulary for modeling complex engineering systems

  12. National Incidence of Patient Safety Indicators in the Total Hip Arthroplasty Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanenbaum, Joseph E; Knapik, Derrick M; Wera, Glenn D; Fitzgerald, Steven J

    2017-09-01

    The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services use the incidence of patient safety indicators (PSIs) to determine health care value and hospital reimbursement. The national incidence of PSI has not been quantified in the total hip arthroplasty (THA) population, and it is unknown if patient insurance status is associated with PSI incidence after THA. All patients in the Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS) who underwent THA in 2013 were identified using the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification codes. The incidence of PSI was determined using the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, diagnosis code algorithms published by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services and the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality. The association of insurance status and the incidence of PSI during the inpatient episode was determined by comparing privately insured and Medicare patients with Medicaid/self-pay patients using a logistic regression model that controlled for patient demographics, patient comorbidities, and hospital characteristics. In 2013, the NIS included 68,644 hospitalizations with primary THA performed during the inpatient episode. During this period, 429 surgically relevant PSI were recorded in the NIS. The estimated national incidence rate of PSI after primary THA was 0.63%. In our secondary analysis, the privately insured cohort had significantly lower odds of experiencing one or more PSIs relative to the Medicaid/self-pay cohort (odds ratio, 0.47; 95% confidence interval, 0.29-0.76). The national incidence of PSI among THA patients is relatively low. However, primary insurance status is associated with the incidence of one or more PSIs after THA. As value-based payment becomes more widely adopted in the United States, quality benchmarks and penalty thresholds need to account for these differences in risk-adjustment models to promote and maintain access to care in the underinsured population. Copyright

  13. Functional form diagnostics for Cox's proportional hazards model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    León, Larry F; Tsai, Chih-Ling

    2004-03-01

    We propose a new type of residual and an easily computed functional form test for the Cox proportional hazards model. The proposed test is a modification of the omnibus test for testing the overall fit of a parametric regression model, developed by Stute, González Manteiga, and Presedo Quindimil (1998, Journal of the American Statistical Association93, 141-149), and is based on what we call censoring consistent residuals. In addition, we develop residual plots that can be used to identify the correct functional forms of covariates. We compare our test with the functional form test of Lin, Wei, and Ying (1993, Biometrika80, 557-572) in a simulation study. The practical application of the proposed residuals and functional form test is illustrated using both a simulated data set and a real data set.

  14. Cancer incidence among waiters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reijula, Jere; Kjaerheim, Kristina; Lynge, Elsebeth

    2015-01-01

    AIMS: To study cancer risk patterns among waiters in the Nordic countries. METHODS: We identified a cohort of 16,134 male and 81,838 female waiters from Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden. During the follow-up period from 1961 to 2005, we found that 19,388 incident cancer cases were...... diagnosed. Standardised incidence ratio (SIR) was defined as the observed number of cancer cases divided by the expected number, based on national age, time period and gender-specific cancer incidence rates in the general population. RESULTS: The SIR of all cancers in waiters, in the five countries combined...... INCIDENCE IN SOME CANCER SITES CAN LIKELY BE EXPLAINED BY HIGHER ALCOHOL CONSUMPTION, THE PREVALENCE OF SMOKING AND OCCUPATIONAL EXPOSURE TO TOBACCO SMOKE HOPEFULLY, THE INCIDENCE OF CANCER AMONG WAITERS WILL DECREASE IN THE FUTURE, DUE TO THE BANNING OF TOBACCO SMOKING IN RESTAURANTS AND BARS IN THE NORDIC...

  15. Critical incidents and critical incident stress management (CISM) - an employee assistance programme (EAP) perspective

    OpenAIRE

    Terblanche, Lourie; van Wyk, André

    2014-01-01

    Employees are increasingly becoming victims of critical incidents. From a systems theory point of view, it is necessary to acknowledge the impact of critical incidents not only on the personal life of the employee, but on the workplace itself. Employees respond differently to critical incidents, which makes it even more complicated when this reaches the point of requiring therapeutic intervention. The most common response to critical incidents may be the risk of developing post-traumatic s...

  16. Conserved Functional Motifs and Homology Modeling to Predict Hidden Moonlighting Functional Sites

    KAUST Repository

    Wong, Aloysius Tze

    2015-06-09

    Moonlighting functional centers within proteins can provide them with hitherto unrecognized functions. Here, we review how hidden moonlighting functional centers, which we define as binding sites that have catalytic activity or regulate protein function in a novel manner, can be identified using targeted bioinformatic searches. Functional motifs used in such searches include amino acid residues that are conserved across species and many of which have been assigned functional roles based on experimental evidence. Molecules that were identified in this manner seeking cyclic mononucleotide cyclases in plants are used as examples. The strength of this computational approach is enhanced when good homology models can be developed to test the functionality of the predicted centers in silico, which, in turn, increases confidence in the ability of the identified candidates to perform the predicted functions. Computational characterization of moonlighting functional centers is not diagnostic for catalysis but serves as a rapid screening method, and highlights testable targets from a potentially large pool of candidates for subsequent in vitro and in vivo experiments required to confirm the functionality of the predicted moonlighting centers.

  17. Conserved Functional Motifs and Homology Modeling to Predict Hidden Moonlighting Functional Sites

    KAUST Repository

    Wong, Aloysius Tze; Gehring, Christoph A; Irving, Helen R.

    2015-01-01

    Moonlighting functional centers within proteins can provide them with hitherto unrecognized functions. Here, we review how hidden moonlighting functional centers, which we define as binding sites that have catalytic activity or regulate protein function in a novel manner, can be identified using targeted bioinformatic searches. Functional motifs used in such searches include amino acid residues that are conserved across species and many of which have been assigned functional roles based on experimental evidence. Molecules that were identified in this manner seeking cyclic mononucleotide cyclases in plants are used as examples. The strength of this computational approach is enhanced when good homology models can be developed to test the functionality of the predicted centers in silico, which, in turn, increases confidence in the ability of the identified candidates to perform the predicted functions. Computational characterization of moonlighting functional centers is not diagnostic for catalysis but serves as a rapid screening method, and highlights testable targets from a potentially large pool of candidates for subsequent in vitro and in vivo experiments required to confirm the functionality of the predicted moonlighting centers.

  18. Increased Kawasaki Disease Incidence Associated With Higher Precipitation and Lower Temperatures, Japan, 1991-2004.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abrams, Joseph Y; Blase, Jennifer L; Belay, Ermias D; Uehara, Ritei; Maddox, Ryan A; Schonberger, Lawrence B; Nakamura, Yosikazu

    2018-06-01

    Kawasaki disease (KD) is an acute febrile vasculitis, which primarily affects children. The etiology of KD is unknown; while certain characteristics of the disease suggest an infectious origin, genetic or environmental factors may also be important. Seasonal patterns of KD incidence are well documented, but it is unclear whether these patterns are caused by changes in climate or by other unknown seasonal effects. The relationship between KD incidence and deviations from expected temperature and precipitation were analyzed using KD incidence data from Japanese nationwide epidemiologic surveys (1991-2004) and climate data from 136 weather stations of the Japan Meteorological Agency. Seven separate Poisson-distributed generalized linear regression models were run to examine the effects of temperature and precipitation on KD incidence in the same month as KD onset and the previous 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 months, controlling for geography as well as seasonal and long-term trends in KD incidence. KD incidence was negatively associated with temperature in the previous 2, 3, 4 and 5 months and positively associated with precipitation in the previous 1 and 2 months. The model that best predicted variations in KD incidence used climate data from the previous 2 months. An increase in total monthly precipitation by 100 mm was associated with increased KD incidence (rate ratio [RR] 1.012, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.005-1.019), and an increase of monthly mean temperature by 1°C was associated with decreased KD incidence (RR 0.984, 95% CI: 0.978-0.990). KD incidence was significantly affected by temperature and precipitation in previous months independent of other unknown seasonal factors. Climate data from the previous 2 months best predicted the variations in KD incidence. Although fairly minor, the effect of temperature and precipitation independent of season may provide additional clues to the etiology of KD.

  19. Modeling multivariate time series on manifolds with skew radial basis functions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamshidi, Arta A; Kirby, Michael J

    2011-01-01

    We present an approach for constructing nonlinear empirical mappings from high-dimensional domains to multivariate ranges. We employ radial basis functions and skew radial basis functions for constructing a model using data that are potentially scattered or sparse. The algorithm progresses iteratively, adding a new function at each step to refine the model. The placement of the functions is driven by a statistical hypothesis test that accounts for correlation in the multivariate range variables. The test is applied on training and validation data and reveals nonstatistical or geometric structure when it fails. At each step, the added function is fit to data contained in a spatiotemporally defined local region to determine the parameters--in particular, the scale of the local model. The scale of the function is determined by the zero crossings of the autocorrelation function of the residuals. The model parameters and the number of basis functions are determined automatically from the given data, and there is no need to initialize any ad hoc parameters save for the selection of the skew radial basis functions. Compactly supported skew radial basis functions are employed to improve model accuracy, order, and convergence properties. The extension of the algorithm to higher-dimensional ranges produces reduced-order models by exploiting the existence of correlation in the range variable data. Structure is tested not just in a single time series but between all pairs of time series. We illustrate the new methodologies using several illustrative problems, including modeling data on manifolds and the prediction of chaotic time series.

  20. Validity of the National Center for Geriatrics and Gerontology-Functional Assessment Tool and Mini-Mental State Examination for detecting the incidence of dementia in older Japanese adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shimada, Hiroyuki; Makizako, Hyuma; Park, Hyuntae; Doi, Takehiko; Lee, Sangyoon

    2017-12-01

    Numerous neuropsychological tests are implemented in the clinical setting. However, a readily available cognitive test is required to detect the risk of dementia in the community setting. A total of 4151 persons aged ≥65 years participated in the present prospective cohort study. We assessed cognitive performance using the Mini-Mental State Examination and the National Center for Geriatrics and Gerontology-Functional Assessment Tool. The National Center for Geriatrics and Gerontology-Functional Assessment Tool includes tests of story and word list memory, attention and executive function, processing speed, and visuospatial skill to screen for cognitive impairment. All measurements were transformed to Z-scores to compare among the cognitive tests. The incidence of dementia was determined using data collected by the Japanese Health Insurance System over 36 months. After an average of 43 months, 180 (4.3%) participants were diagnosed with dementia. Survival analyses showed that the probability of dementia was significantly associated with all cognitive tests, except for visuospatial skill. The processing speed test showed the highest hazard ratios for the incidence of dementia (Z-score: hazard ratio 0.61, 95% confidence interval 0.50-0.75, P Mini-Mental State Examination, play an important role in detecting the risk of dementia in the community setting. Further analysis is required to identify the risk of dementia in older people without global cognitive impairment. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2017; 17: 2383-2388. © 2017 Japan Geriatrics Society.

  1. Psychological Trauma in the Workplace: Variation of Incident Severity among Industry Settings and between Recurring vs Isolated Incidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeFraia, G S

    2015-07-01

    Psychologically traumatic workplace events (known as critical incidents) occur within various work environments, with workgroups in certain industries vulnerable to multiple incidents. With the increasing prevalence of incidents in the USA, incident response is a growing practice area within occupational medicine, industrial psychology, occupational social work and other occupational health professions. To analyze a measure of incident severity based on level of disruption to the workplace and explore whether incident severity varied among different industry settings or between workgroups experiencing multiple vs single traumatic incidents. Administrative data mining was employed to examine practice data from a workplace trauma response unit in the USA. Bivariate analyses were conducted to test whether scores from an instrument measuring incident severity level varied among industry settings or between workgroups impacted by multiple vs isolated events. Incident severity level differed among various industry settings. Banks, retail stores and fast food restaurants accounted for the most severe incidents, while industrial and manufacturing sites reported less severe incidents. Workgroups experiencing multiple incidents reported more severe incidents than workgroups experiencing a single incident. Occupational health practitioners should be alert to industry differences in several areas: pre-incident resiliency training, the content of business recovery plans, assessing worker characteristics, strategies to assist continuous operations and assisting workgroups impacted by multiple or severe incidents.

  2. County-level cumulative environmental quality associated with cancer incidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jagai, Jyotsna S; Messer, Lynne C; Rappazzo, Kristen M; Gray, Christine L; Grabich, Shannon C; Lobdell, Danelle T

    2017-08-01

    Individual environmental exposures are associated with cancer development; however, environmental exposures occur simultaneously. The Environmental Quality Index (EQI) is a county-level measure of cumulative environmental exposures that occur in 5 domains. The EQI was linked to county-level annual age-adjusted cancer incidence rates from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program state cancer profiles. All-site cancer and the top 3 site-specific cancers for male and female subjects were considered. Incident rate differences (IRDs; annual rate difference per 100,000 persons) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using fixed-slope, random intercept multilevel linear regression models. Associations were assessed with domain-specific indices and analyses were stratified by rural/urban status. Comparing the highest quintile/poorest environmental quality with the lowest quintile/best environmental quality for overall EQI, all-site county-level cancer incidence rate was positively associated with poor environmental quality overall (IRD, 38.55; 95% CI, 29.57-47.53) and for male (IRD, 32.60; 95% CI, 16.28-48.91) and female (IRD, 30.34; 95% CI, 20.47-40.21) subjects, indicating a potential increase in cancer incidence with decreasing environmental quality. Rural/urban stratified models demonstrated positive associations comparing the highest with the lowest quintiles for all strata, except the thinly populated/rural stratum and in the metropolitan/urbanized stratum. Prostate and breast cancer demonstrated the strongest positive associations with poor environmental quality. We observed strong positive associations between the EQI and all-site cancer incidence rates, and associations differed by rural/urban status and environmental domain. Research focusing on single environmental exposures in cancer development may not address the broader environmental context in which cancers develop, and future research should address cumulative environmental

  3. Incidence of leukemia among atomic bomb survivors in relation to neutron and gamma dose, Hiroshima and Nagasaki, 1950-71

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ishimaru, Toranosuke; Otake, Masanori; Ichimaru, Michito.

    1978-03-01

    The incidence of leukemia during 1950-71 in the fixed mortality sample of atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki has been analyzed as a function of individual gamma and neutron kerma and marrow dose. Two dose response models were tested for each of acute leukemia, chronic granulocytic leukemia, and all types of leukemia, respectively. Each model postulates that leukemia incidence depends upon the sum of the separate risks imposed by the gamma ray and neutron doses; in Model I both are assumed to be directly proportional to the respective doses, while Model II assumes that while the risk from neutrons is directly proportional to the dose, the risk from gamma rays is proportional to dose-squared. Weighted regression analyses were performed for each model. When the two models were fitted to the data for all types of leukemia, the estimated regression coefficients corresponding to the neutron and gamma ray doses both differed significantly from zero, for each model. However, when analysis was restricted to acute leukemia, both the neutron and gamma ray coefficients were significant only for Model II, and with respect to chronic granulocytic leukemia, only the coefficient of the neutron dose was significant, using either Model I or Model II. It appeared that the responses of the two leukemia types differed by type of radiation. If the chronic granulocytic and acute leukemias are considered together, the Model II appears to fit the data slightly better than Model I, but neither models is rejected by the data. (author)

  4. Modelling the Impact of Soil Management on Soil Functions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogel, H. J.; Weller, U.; Rabot, E.; Stößel, B.; Lang, B.; Wiesmeier, M.; Urbanski, L.; Wollschläger, U.

    2017-12-01

    Due to an increasing soil loss and an increasing demand for food and energy there is an enormous pressure on soils as the central resource for agricultural production. Besides the importance of soils for biomass production there are other essential soil functions, i.e. filter and buffer for water, carbon sequestration, provision and recycling of nutrients, and habitat for biological activity. All these functions have a direct feed back to biogeochemical cycles and climate. To render agricultural production efficient and sustainable we need to develop model tools that are capable to predict quantitatively the impact of a multitude of management measures on these soil functions. These functions are considered as emergent properties produced by soils as complex systems. The major challenge is to handle the multitude of physical, chemical and biological processes interacting in a non-linear manner. A large number of validated models for specific soil processes are available. However, it is not possible to simulate soil functions by coupling all the relevant processes at the detailed (i.e. molecular) level where they are well understood. A new systems perspective is required to evaluate the ensemble of soil functions and their sensitivity to external forcing. Another challenge is that soils are spatially heterogeneous systems by nature. Soil processes are highly dependent on the local soil properties and, hence, any model to predict soil functions needs to account for the site-specific conditions. For upscaling towards regional scales the spatial distribution of functional soil types need to be taken into account. We propose a new systemic model approach based on a thorough analysis of the interactions between physical, chemical and biological processes considering their site-specific characteristics. It is demonstrated for the example of soil compaction and the recovery of soil structure, water capacity and carbon stocks as a result of plant growth and biological

  5. Refined functional relations for the elliptic SOS model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Galleas, W., E-mail: w.galleas@uu.nl [ARC Centre of Excellence for the Mathematics and Statistics of Complex Systems, University of Melbourne, VIC 3010 (Australia)

    2013-02-21

    In this work we refine the method presented in Galleas (2012) [1] and obtain a novel kind of functional equation determining the partition function of the elliptic SOS model with domain wall boundaries. This functional relation arises from the dynamical Yang-Baxter relation and its solution is given in terms of multiple contour integrals.

  6. Refined functional relations for the elliptic SOS model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Galleas, W.

    2013-01-01

    In this work we refine the method presented in Galleas (2012) [1] and obtain a novel kind of functional equation determining the partition function of the elliptic SOS model with domain wall boundaries. This functional relation arises from the dynamical Yang–Baxter relation and its solution is given in terms of multiple contour integrals.

  7. The oil spill modelling in the Sea of Japan: application to the tanker 'Nakhodka' 1997 incident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Varlamov, S.M.; Yoon, J.-H.; Hirose, N.; Kawamura, H.

    1998-01-01

    In January 1997 the Russian tanker 'NAKHODKA' spilled into the Sea of Japan about 5000 tons of heavy fuel oil type C. Most of it reached the coast of Japan and damaged the environment. This incident forced the development of the operational system for the prediction of oil spills in the Sea of Japan. As a part of this system the model for oil spill modelling is presented. The modelled climatological sea currents were used in these simulators, generated by the three-dimensional primitive ocean circulation model with 10-minute horizontal resolution and 19 vertical levels. The model was forced by climatological atmospheric winds and heat fluxes. The wind currents in the upper sea layer were estimated by the wind data of ECMWF with 6 hours time and 0.5625-degree spatial resolution. The vertical structure of the total currents was interpolated using both wind driven currents and the climatological model currents data at the model levels. The oil spill was modelled with the particle tracking techniques. The model included the advection by currents, random diffusion, the buoyancy effect and the parameterisation of oil evaporation, biodegradation and beaching. For the deep sea the parameterisation of diffusion depends from the stratification, taken from the ocean circulation model output. The results demonstrated the defined relation with the observed propagation of the oil along the coast of Japan and highlighted the most important directions for the model development. The main is the realisation of the model for the real-time simulations and forecasts of the ocean currents with the fine resolution in the upper layer of the Sea of Japan. (author)

  8. Fast-neutrons incident on rotors: Tantalum

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, Alan B.

    2005-01-01

    Mono-energetic neutrons are elastically and inelastically scattered from elemental tantalum at incident energies of ∼0.3-10.0 MeV. These experimental results are augmented with neutron total-cross-section and additional neutron-scattering data from the literature to form a composite experimental database. The latter is interpreted in the context of optical-statistical and coupled-channels models, including consideration of collective rotations, dispersion effects and other physical properties. The results are compared with those of similar processes in this region of collective nuclei. A regional model is proposed for the interpretation and prediction of such interactions. The model and the experimental results are compared with corresponding values given in ENDF/B-VI

  9. Financial and health literacy predict incident AD dementia and AD pathology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Lei; Wilson, Robert S.; Schneider, Julie A.; Bennett, David A.; Boyle, Patricia A.

    2017-01-01

    Background Domain specific literacy is a multidimensional construct that requires multiple resources including cognitive and non-cognitive factors. Objective We test the hypothesis that domain specific literacy is associated with AD dementia and AD pathology after controlling for cognition. Methods Participants were community based older persons who completed a baseline literacy assessment, underwent annual clinical evaluations for up to 8 years and agreed to organ donation after death. Financial and health literacy was measured using 32 questions and cognition was measured using 19 tests. Annual diagnosis of AD dementia followed standard criteria. AD pathology was examined post-mortem by quantifying plaques and tangles. Cox models examined the association of literacy with incident AD dementia. Performance of model prediction for incident AD dementia was assessed using indices for integrated discrimination improvement and continuous net reclassification improvement. Linear regression models examined the independent association of literacy with AD pathology in autopsied participants. Results All 805 participants were free of dementia at baseline and 102 (12.7%) developed AD dementia during the follow-up. Lower literacy was associated with higher risk for incident AD dementia (pliteracy measure had better predictive performance than the one with demographics and cognition only. Lower literacy also was associated with higher burden of AD pathology after controlling for cognition (β=0.07, p=0.035). Conclusion Literacy predicts incident AD dementia and AD pathology in community-dwelling older persons, and the association is independent of traditional measures of cognition. PMID:28157101

  10. Financial and Health Literacy Predict Incident Alzheimer's Disease Dementia and Pathology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Lei; Wilson, Robert S; Schneider, Julie A; Bennett, David A; Boyle, Patricia A

    2017-01-01

    Domain specific literacy is a multidimensional construct that requires multiple resources including cognitive and non-cognitive factors. We test the hypothesis that domain specific literacy is associated with Alzheimer's disease (AD) dementia and AD pathology after controlling for cognition. Participants were community-based older persons who completed a baseline literacy assessment, underwent annual clinical evaluations for up to 8 years, and agreed to organ donation after death. Financial and health literacy was measured using 32 questions and cognition was measured using 19 tests. Annual diagnosis of AD dementia followed standard criteria. AD pathology was examined postmortem by quantifying plaques and tangles. Cox models examined the association of literacy with incident AD dementia. Performance of model prediction for incident AD dementia was assessed using indices for integrated discrimination improvement and continuous net reclassification improvement. Linear regression models examined the independent association of literacy with AD pathology in autopsied participants. All 805 participants were free of dementia at baseline and 102 (12.7%) developed AD dementia during the follow-up. Lower literacy was associated with higher risk for incident AD dementia (p literacy measure had better predictive performance than the one with demographics and cognition only. Lower literacy also was associated with higher burden of AD pathology after controlling for cognition (β= 0.07, p = 0.035). Literacy predicts incident AD dementia and AD pathology in community-dwelling older persons, and the association is independent of traditional measures of cognition.

  11. Night shift work and incident diabetes among U.S. black women

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vimalananda, Varsha G.; Palmer, Julie R.; Gerlovin, Hanna; Wise, Lauren A.; Rosenzweig, James L.; Rosenberg, Lynn; Narváez, Edward A. Ruiz

    2015-01-01

    Aims To assess shift work in relation to incident type 2 diabetes among African American women. Methods In the Black Women's Health Study (BWHS), an ongoing prospective cohort study, we followed 28,041 participants for incident diabetes during 2005-2013. They answered questions in 2005 about having worked the night shift. We estimated hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for incident diabetes using Cox proportional hazards models. The basic multivariable model included age, time period, family history of diabetes, education, and neighborhood SES. In further models, we controlled for lifestyle factors and body mass index (BMI). Results Over the 8 years of follow-up, there were 1,786 incident diabetes cases. Relative to never having worked the night shift, HRs (95% CI) of diabetes were 1.17 (1.04, 1.31) for 1-2 years of night shift work, 1.23 (1.06, 1.41) for 3-9 years, and 1.42 (1.19, 1.70) for ≥ 10 years (P-trend shift work and type 2 diabetes remained after multivariable adjustment (P-trend = 0.02). The association did not vary by obesity status, but was stronger in women aged shift work were associated with an increased risk of type 2 diabetes. The association was only partially explained by lifestyle factors and BMI. A better understanding of the mechanisms by which shift work may affect risk of diabetes is needed in view of the high prevalence of shift work among U.S. workers. PMID:25586362

  12. Psychological Trauma in the Workplace: Variation of Incident Severity among Industry Settings and between Recurring vs Isolated Incidents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    GS DeFraia

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Background: Psychologically traumatic workplace events (known as critical incidents occur within various work environments, with workgroups in certain industries vulnerable to multiple incidents. With the increasing prevalence of incidents in the USA, incident response is a growing practice area within occupational medicine, industrial psychology, occupational social work and other occupational health professions. Objective: To analyze a measure of incident severity based on level of disruption to the workplace and explore whether incident severity varied among different industry settings or between workgroups experiencing multiple vs single traumatic incidents. Methods: Administrative data mining was employed to examine practice data from a workplace trauma response unit in the USA. Bivariate analyses were conducted to test whether scores from an instrument measuring incident severity level varied among industry settings or between workgroups impacted by multiple vs isolated events. Results: Incident severity level differed among various industry settings. Banks, retail stores and fast food restaurants accounted for the most severe incidents, while industrial and manufacturing sites reported less severe incidents. Workgroups experiencing multiple incidents reported more severe incidents than workgroups experiencing a single incident. Conclusion: Occupational health practitioners should be alert to industry differences in several areas: pre-incident resiliency training, the content of business recovery plans, assessing worker characteristics, strategies to assist continuous operations and assisting workgroups impacted by multiple or severe incidents.

  13. Cardiovascular Risks Associated with Incident and Prevalent Periodontal Disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Yau-Hua; Chasman, Daniel I; Buring, Julie E; Rose, Lynda; Ridker, Paul M

    2014-01-01

    Aim While prevalent periodontal disease associates with cardiovascular risk, little is known about how incident periodontal disease influences future vascular risk. We compared effects of incident versus prevalent periodontal disease in developing major cardiovascular diseases (CVD), myocardial infarction (MI), ischemic stroke and total CVD. Material and Methods In a prospective cohort of 39863 predominantly white women, age ≥ 45 years and free of cardiovascular disease at baseline were followed for an average of 15.7 years. Cox proportional hazard models with time-varying periodontal status (prevalent [18%], incident [7.3%] vs. never [74.7%]) were used to assess future cardiovascular risks. Results Incidence rates of all CVD outcomes were higher in women with prevalent or incident periodontal disease. For women with incident periodontal disease, risk factor adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) were 1.42 (95% CI, 1.14–1.77) for major CVD, 1.72 (1.25–2.38) for MI, 1.41(1.02–1.95) for ischemic stroke, and 1.27(1.06–1.52) for total CVD. For women with prevalent periodontal disease, adjusted HRs were 1.14 (1.00–1.31) for major CVD, 1.27 (1.04–1.56) for MI, 1.12(0.91–1.37) for ischemic stroke, and 1.15(1.03–1.28) for total CVD. Conclusion New cases of periodontal disease, not just those that are pre-existing, place women at significantly elevated risks for future cardiovascular events. PMID:25385537

  14. Bifurcations in a discrete time model composed of Beverton-Holt function and Ricker function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shang, Jin; Li, Bingtuan; Barnard, Michael R

    2015-05-01

    We provide rigorous analysis for a discrete-time model composed of the Ricker function and Beverton-Holt function. This model was proposed by Lewis and Li [Bull. Math. Biol. 74 (2012) 2383-2402] in the study of a population in which reproduction occurs at a discrete instant of time whereas death and competition take place continuously during the season. We show analytically that there exists a period-doubling bifurcation curve in the model. The bifurcation curve divides the parameter space into the region of stability and the region of instability. We demonstrate through numerical bifurcation diagrams that the regions of periodic cycles are intermixed with the regions of chaos. We also study the global stability of the model. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Cancer Incidence following Expansion of HIV Treatment in Botswana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dryden-Peterson, Scott; Medhin, Heluf; Kebabonye-Pusoentsi, Malebogo; Seage, George R; Suneja, Gita; Kayembe, Mukendi K A; Mmalane, Mompati; Rebbeck, Timothy; Rider, Jennifer R; Essex, Myron; Lockman, Shahin

    2015-01-01

    The expansion of combination antiretroviral treatment (ART) in southern Africa has dramatically reduced mortality due to AIDS-related infections, but the impact of ART on cancer incidence in the region is unknown. We sought to describe trends in cancer incidence in Botswana during implementation of the first public ART program in Africa. We included 8479 incident cases from the Botswana National Cancer Registry during a period of significant ART expansion in Botswana, 2003-2008, when ART coverage increased from 7.3% to 82.3%. We fit Poisson models of age-adjusted cancer incidence and counts in the total population, and in an inverse probability weighted population with known HIV status, over time and estimated ART coverage. During this period 61.6% of cancers were diagnosed in HIV-infected individuals and 45.4% of all cancers in men and 36.4% of all cancers in women were attributable to HIV. Age-adjusted cancer incidence decreased in the HIV infected population by 8.3% per year (95% CI -14.1 to -2.1%). However, with a progressively larger and older HIV population the annual number of cancers diagnosed remained constant (0.0% annually, 95% CI -4.3 to +4.6%). In the overall population, incidence of Kaposi's sarcoma decreased (4.6% annually, 95% CI -6.9 to -2.2), but incidence of non-Hodgkin lymphoma (+11.5% annually, 95% CI +6.3 to +17.0%) and HPV-associated cancers increased (+3.9% annually, 95% CI +1.4 to +6.5%). Age-adjusted cancer incidence among individuals without HIV increased 7.5% per year (95% CI +1.4 to +15.2%). Expansion of ART in Botswana was associated with decreased age-specific cancer risk. However, an expanding and aging population contributed to continued high numbers of incident cancers in the HIV population. Increased capacity for early detection and treatment of HIV-associated cancer needs to be a new priority for programs in Africa.

  16. Analysis of incident-energy dependence of delayed neutron yields in actinides

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nasir, Mohamad Nasrun bin Mohd, E-mail: monasr211@gmail.com; Metorima, Kouhei, E-mail: kohei.m2420@hotmail.co.jp; Ohsawa, Takaaki, E-mail: ohsawa@mvg.biglobe.ne.jp; Hashimoto, Kengo, E-mail: kengoh@pp.iij4u.or.jp [Graduate School of Science and Engineering, Kindai University, Kowakae, Higashi-Osaka, 577-8502 (Japan)

    2015-04-29

    The changes of delayed neutron yields (ν{sub d}) of Actinides have been analyzed for incident energy up to 20MeV using realized data of precursor after prompt neutron emission, from semi-empirical model, and delayed neutron emission probability data (P{sub n}) to carry out a summation method. The evaluated nuclear data of the delayed neutron yields of actinide nuclides are still uncertain at the present and the cause of the energy dependence has not been fully understood. In this study, the fission yields of precursor were calculated considering the change of the fission fragment mass yield based on the superposition of fives Gaussian distribution; and the change of the prompt neutrons number associated with the incident energy dependence. Thus, the incident energy dependent behavior of delayed neutron was analyzed.The total number of delayed neutron is expressed as ν{sub d}=∑Y{sub i} • P{sub ni} in the summation method, where Y{sub i} is the mass yields of precursor i and P{sub ni} is the delayed neutron emission probability of precursor i. The value of Y{sub i} is derived from calculation of post neutron emission mass distribution using 5 Gaussian equations with the consideration of large distribution of the fission fragments. The prompt neutron emission ν{sub p} increases at higher incident-energy but there are two different models; one model says that the fission fragment mass dependence that prompt neutron emission increases uniformly regardless of the fission fragments mass; and the other says that the major increases occur at heavy fission fragments area. In this study, the changes of delayed neutron yields by the two models have been investigated.

  17. Understanding the nature of errors in nursing: using a model to analyse critical incident reports of errors which had resulted in an adverse or potentially adverse event.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meurier, C E

    2000-07-01

    Human errors are common in clinical practice, but they are under-reported. As a result, very little is known of the types, antecedents and consequences of errors in nursing practice. This limits the potential to learn from errors and to make improvement in the quality and safety of nursing care. The aim of this study was to use an Organizational Accident Model to analyse critical incidents of errors in nursing. Twenty registered nurses were invited to produce a critical incident report of an error (which had led to an adverse event or potentially could have led to an adverse event) they had made in their professional practice and to write down their responses to the error using a structured format. Using Reason's Organizational Accident Model, supplemental information was then collected from five of the participants by means of an individual in-depth interview to explore further issues relating to the incidents they had reported. The detailed analysis of one of the incidents is discussed in this paper, demonstrating the effectiveness of this approach in providing insight into the chain of events which may lead to an adverse event. The case study approach using critical incidents of clinical errors was shown to provide relevant information regarding the interaction of organizational factors, local circumstances and active failures (errors) in producing an adverse or potentially adverse event. It is suggested that more use should be made of this approach to understand how errors are made in practice and to take appropriate preventative measures.

  18. Introduction of a prehospital critical incident monitoring system--pilot project results.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stella, Julian; Davis, Anna; Jennings, Paul; Bartley, Bruce

    2008-01-01

    trend/further observation and analysis responses (5.2%; CI = 4.9-5.5%). The pilot project demonstrates successful implementation of an incident monitoring system within a regional, prehospital environment. The combination of incident detecting techniques has a high yield with potential to capture different error types. The large proportion of incidents in the "near miss" category allows analysis of incidents without patient harm. The majority of incidents were system related and many were mitigated by circumstance. The model used is appropriate for ongoing incident monitoring in this setting.

  19. Association between the incidence of varicella and meteorological conditions in Jinan, Eastern China, 2012-2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Yunqing; Geng, Xingyi; Liu, Xiaoxue; Wang, Weiru; Zhang, Ji

    2016-04-22

    Varicella remains an important public health issue in China. In this study we explored the effect of weather conditions on the incidence of varicella in the temperate city of Jinan, Eastern China during 2012-2014 to inform public health prevention and control measures. Data on reported cases of varicella were obtained from National Notifiable Disease Report System. Meteorological data for the same time period were obtained from the Jinan Meteorological Bureau. A negative binomial regression model was used to assess the relationships between meteorological variables and the incidence of varicella. Given collinearity between average temperature and atmospheric pressure, separate models were constructed: one including average temperature without atmospheric pressure, the other including atmospheric pressure but without average temperature. Both models included relative humidity, wind velocity, rainfall, sunshine, and year as independent variables. Annual incidence rates of varicella were 44.47, 53.69, and 46.81 per 100,000 for 2012, 2013, and 2014, respectively. Each increase of 100 Pa (hPa) in atmospheric pressure was estimated to be associated with an increase in weekly incidence of 3.35 % (95 % CI = 2.94-3.67 %), while a 1 °C rise in temperature was associated with a decrease of 3.44 % (95 % CI = -3.73-3.15 %) in the weekly incidence of varicella. Similarly, a 1 % rise in relative humidity corresponded to a decrease of 0.50 % or 1.00 %, a 1 h rise in sunshine corresponded to an increase of 1.10 % or 0.50 %, and a 1 mm rise in rainfall corresponded to an increase of 0.20 % or 0.30 %, in the weekly incidence of varicella cases, depending on the variable considered in the model. Our findings show that weather factors have a significant influence on the incidence of varicella. Meteorological conditions should be considered as important predictors of varicella incidence in Jinan, Eastern China.

  20. Low-level environmental metals and metalloids and incident pregnancy loss.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buck Louis, Germaine M; Smarr, Melissa M; Sundaram, Rajeshwari; Steuerwald, Amy J; Sapra, Katherine J; Lu, Zhaohui; Parsons, Patrick J

    2017-04-01

    Environmental exposure to metals and metalloids is associated with pregnancy loss in some but not all studies. We assessed arsenic, cadmium, mercury, and lead concentrations in 501 couples upon trying for pregnancy and followed them throughout pregnancy to estimate the risk of incident pregnancy loss. Using Cox proportional hazard models, we estimated hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for pregnancy loss after covariate adjustment for each partner modeled individually then we jointly modeled both partners' concentrations. Incidence of pregnancy loss was 28%. In individual partner models, the highest adjusted HRs were observed for female and male blood cadmium (HR=1.08; CI 0.81, 1.44; HR=1.09; 95% CI 0.84, 1.41, respectively). In couple based models, neither partner's blood cadmium concentrations were associated with loss (HR=1.01; 95% CI 0.75, 1.37; HR=0.92; CI 0.68, 1.25, respectively). We observed no evidence of a significant relation between metal(loids) at these environmentally relevant concentrations and pregnancy loss. Published by Elsevier Inc.