WorldWideScience

Sample records for inch rainfall area

  1. Tropical cyclone rainfall area controlled by relative sea surface temperature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Yanluan; Zhao, Ming; Zhang, Minghua

    2015-03-12

    Tropical cyclone rainfall rates have been projected to increase in a warmer climate. The area coverage of tropical cyclones influences their impact on human lives, yet little is known about how tropical cyclone rainfall area will change in the future. Here, using satellite data and global atmospheric model simulations, we show that tropical cyclone rainfall area is controlled primarily by its environmental sea surface temperature (SST) relative to the tropical mean SST (that is, the relative SST), while rainfall rate increases with increasing absolute SST. Our result is consistent with previous numerical simulations that indicated tight relationships between tropical cyclone size and mid-tropospheric relative humidity. Global statistics of tropical cyclone rainfall area are not expected to change markedly under a warmer climate provided that SST change is relatively uniform, implying that increases in total rainfall will be confined to similar size domains with higher rainfall rates.

  2. Nutrition of intensive pastures in the summer rainfall areas of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Keywords: Fertilizer nitrogen sources; Fertilizers; Grasses; Legumes; Lime; Nitrogen application responses; Phosphorous; Potassium; Soil acidity; cutting; fertilizer; grass; grazing; legume; minerals; nitrogen; persistence; phosphorus; productivity; soil test calibrations; utilization; soils; nutrition; pastures; summer rainfall area; ...

  3. Assessment of Runoff Contributing Catchment Areas in Rainfall Runoff Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke; Johansen, C.; Schaarup-Jensen, Kjeld

    2005-01-01

    recommended literary values for residential areas. It is proven by comparing rainfall-runoff measurements from four different residential catchments that the literary values of the hydrological reduction factor are over-estimated for this type of catchments. In addition, different catchment descriptions......In numerical modelling of rainfall caused runoff in urban sewer systems an essential parameter is the hydrological reduction factor which defines the percentage of the impervious area contributing to the surface flow towards the sewer. As the hydrological processes during a rainfall are difficult...... to determine with significant precision the hydrological reduction factor is implemented to account all hydrological losses except the initial loss. This paper presents an inconsistency between calculations of the hydrological reduction factor, based on measurements of rainfall and runoff, and till now...

  4. Assessment of runoff contributing catchment areas in rainfall runoff modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren; Johansen, C.; Schaarup-Jensen, Kjeld

    2006-01-01

    recommended literature values for residential areas. It is proven by comparing rainfall-runoff measurements from four different residential catchments that the literature values of the hydrological reduction factor are over-estimated for this type of catchment. In addition, different catchment descriptions......In numerical modelling of rainfall caused runoff in urban sewer systems an essential parameter is the hydrological reduction factor which defines the percentage of the impervious area contributing to the surface flow towards the sewer. As the hydrological processes during a rainfall are difficult...... to determine with significant precision the hydrological reduction factor is implemented to account all hydrological losses except the initial loss. This paper presents an inconsistency between calculations of the hydrological reduction factor, based on measurements of rainfall and runoff, and till now...

  5. Potentials for Supplemental Irrigation in Some Rainfall Areas of Imo ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    It is generally believed that irrigation is not needed in the southern parts of Nigeria, usually referred to as the rainfall areas of Nigeria. This study investigated the need and potentials for irrigation in some parts of Imo, Abia and Ebonyi States of southeastern Nigeria with a view to ascertaining the extent of need and potentials ...

  6. Seasonal rainfall predictability over the Lake Kariba catchment area

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2013-10-24

    Oct 24, 2013 ... Lake Kariba catchment area, this study used the low-level atmospheric circulation (850 hPa geopotential height fields) of a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (CGCM) over southern Africa, statistically downscaled to gridded seasonal rainfall totals over the catchment. This downscaling ...

  7. Assessing spatio-temporal rainfall variability in a tropical mountain area (Ethiopia) using NOAA's rainfall estimates

    OpenAIRE

    Jacob, Miro; Frankl, Amaury; Haile, Mitiku; Zwertvaegher, Ann; Nyssen, Jan

    2013-01-01

    Seasonal and interannual variation in rainfall can cause massive economic loss for farmers and pastoralists, not only because of deficient total rainfall amounts but also because of long dry spells within the rainy season. The semi-arid to sub-humid mountain climate of the North Ethiopian Highlands is especially vulnerable to rainfall anomalies. In this article, spatio-temporal rainfall patterns are analysed on a regional scale in the North Ethiopian Highlands using satellite-derived rainfall...

  8. Hydrologic conditions and quality of rainfall and storm runoff in agricultural and rangeland areas in San Patricio County, Texas, 2000-2001

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ockerman, Darwin J.

    2002-01-01

    During 2000–2001, rainfall and runoff were monitored in one mixed agricultural watershed and two rangeland watersheds in San Patricio County, located in the Coastal Bend area of South Texas. During this period, five rainfall samples were collected and analyzed for selected nutrients. Ten runoff samples from nine runoff events were collected at the three watershed monitoring stations. Runoff samples were analyzed for selected nutrients, major ions, trace elements, pesticides, and bacteria.Study area rainfall during 2000 and 2001 was 33.27 and 28.20 inches, respectively, less than the long-term average annual of 36.31 inches. Total runoff from the study area watersheds during 2000–2001 was 2.46 inches; the regional average is about 2 inches per year. Rainfall and runoff during the study period was typical of historical patterns, with periods of below average rainfall interspersed with extreme events. Three individual storm events accounted for about 29 percent of the total rainfall and 86 percent of the total runoff during 2000– 2001.Runoff concentrations of nutrients, major ions, and trace elements generally were larger in the mixed agricultural watershed than runoff concentrations in the rangeland watersheds. Pesticides were detected in two of eight runoff samples. Three pesticides (atrazine, deethylatrazine, and trifluralin) were detected in very small concentrations; only deethylatrazine was detected in a concentration greater than the laboratory minimum reporting level.Bacteria in agricultural and rangeland runoff is a potential water-quality concern as all fecal coliform and E. coli densities in the runoff samples exceeded Texas Surface Water Quality Standards for receiving waters. However, runoff and relatively large bacteria densities represent very brief and infrequent conditions, and the effect on downstream water is not known.Rainfall deposition is a major source of nitrogen delivered to the study area. Rainfall nitrogen (mostly ammonia and nitrate

  9. Two inch large area patterning on a vertical light-emitting diode by nano-imprinting technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Byeon, Kyeong-Jae; Hong, Eun-Ju; Park, Hyoungwon; Yoon, Kyung-Min; Lee, Heon; Song, Hyun Don; Lee, Jin Wook; Kim, Sun-Kyung; Cho, Hyun Kyong; Kwon, Ho Ki

    2010-01-01

    A vertical light-emitting diode (LED) with a chip size of 500 × 500 µm 2 was fabricated by the laser lift-off (LLO) process of an InGaN-based blue LED wafer. After the LLO process, photonic crystal patterns by UV nano-imprint lithography were formed on the n-GaN top layer of the vertical LED over the entire area with a diameter of 2 inches. As the result of n-GaN patterning, light output power of the vertical LED with photonic crystals was increased by up to 44% compared to that of the vertical LED without a photonic crystal at a driving current of 1000 mA

  10. TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL ANALYSIS OF EXTREME RAINFALL ON THE SLOPE AREA OF MT. MERAPI

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dhian Dharma Prayuda

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Rainfall has temporal and spatial characteristics with certain pattern which are affected by topographic variations and climatology of an area. The intensity of extreme rainfall is one of important characteristics related to the trigger factors for debris flow. This research will discuss the result of analysis on short duration rainfall data in the south and west slope of Mt. Merapi. Measured hourly rainfall data in 14 rainfall stations for the last 27 years were used as analysis input. The rainfall intensity-duration-frequency relationship (IDF was derived using empirical formula of Sherman, Kimijima, Haspers, and Mononobe method. The analysis on the characteristics of extreme rainfall intensity was performed by conducting spatial interpolation using Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW method. Result of analysis shows that IDF of rainfall in the research area fits to Sherman’s formula. Besides, the spatial distribution pattern of maximum rainfall intensity was assessed on the basis of area rainfall. Furthermore, the difference on the result of spatial map for one hour extreme rainfall based on isolated event and non-isolated event method can be evaluated. The result of this preliminary research is expected to be inputs in the establishment of debris flow early warning in Mt. Merapi slope area.

  11. Seasonal rainfall predictability over the Lake Kariba catchment area ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Retroactive forecasts are produced for lead times of up to 5 months and probabilistic forecast performances evaluated for extreme rainfall thresholds of the 25th and 75th percentile values of the climatological record. The verification of the retroactive forecasts shows that rainfall over the catchment is predictable at extended ...

  12. Rainfall trends and variability in selected areas of Ethiopian Somali ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Moreover, proper spatial distribution of meteorological stations together with early warning system are required to further support local adaptive and coping strategies that the community designed towards rainfall variability in particular and climate change/disaster and risk at large. Keywords: Ethiopian Somali Region, Gode, ...

  13. [Spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of rainfall erosivity in Three Gorges Reservoir Area].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Chang-Guang; Lin, De-Sheng; Xiao, Wen-Fa; Wang, Peng-Cheng; Ma, Hao; Zhou, Zhi-Xiang

    2011-01-01

    Based on the 1976-2005 daily rainfall records from 25 weather stations in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area and its surrounding regions, this paper studied the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of rainfall erosivity in the Area, with the focus on the annual and inter-annual trends of the rainfall erosivity around seven main weather stations. In 1976-2005, the average annual rainfall erosivity (R) in the Area was from 4389.0 to 8021.0 MJ x mm x hm(-2) x h(-1) x a(-1), being increased first from the northeast to the southwest, reached the peak in the central, and then decreased. The annual rainfall erosivity around the seven main weather stations mostly concentrated in the period from April to October, with the R value increased first from April, reached the highest in June or July, and then decreased. The maximum rainfall erosivity in consecutive three months around each of the seven weather stations accounted for 54.2%-60.7% of the total annual rainfall erosivity. In the study period, the coefficients of variation of the annual rainfall erosivity around the seven main weather stations varied moderately from 0.278 to 0.387, and the tendency rate ranged from -431.1 to 263.5 MJ x mm x hm(-2) x h(-1) x (10 a)(-1). However, the coefficients of tendency did not pass the confidence test with 5% level of significance, and the changes of annual rainfall erosivity showed random fluctuation. The variation degree of monthly rainfall erosivity was larger than the variation of annual rainfall erosivity, but only showed an obvious climate trend in a few months around parts of the weather stations.

  14. Rainfall interception by two arboreal species in urban green area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luzia Ferreira da Silva

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Rainfall interception by the two most usual species in forest urban spaces was analysed by measuring of interception (I or interception losses, through fall (Th, stem flow (St and gross precipitation (Pg. The chosen species were Caesalpinia pluviosa DC. (Fabaceae: Caesalpinoideae or sibipiruna, and Tipuana tipu O. Kuntze (Fabaceae: Faboideae or tipuana. The individuals analysed were more than 50 years old, with three separate individuals and three individuals in each studied group of species at the campus of ”Luiz de Queiroz” College of Agriculture (University of Sao Paulo, Piracicaba. The experiments were carried out from January to February 2007. Water was collected using seven-litre pails, in the edges and in the centre of the canopies. A high correlation of Th with Pg was observed on the centre of the crow of tipuana and by the edges of sibipiruna. St and I had low correlation with Pg for both species. The average of rain interception was greater in the edges of the crow of sibipiruna individuals, 60.6%, and in the centre of tipuana crow, 59.40%. Thus, both species intercepted up to 60% of the water rainfall, which indicates a great potential of both species for arborisation in urban environments.

  15. ESTIMATION AND MAPPING OF EXTREME RAINFALL IN THE CATCHMENT AREA OF BATNA (ALGERIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guellouh SAMI

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Statistical estimation of rainfall associated with extreme events is of major interest for hydrologists in terms of risk prevention. Comprehending the spatial distribution of extreme rainfalls that cover the entire catchment area, the impluvium, of Batna, requires as a first step a frequency analysis of annual maximum daily rainfall time series with the application of empirical distributions, namely the GEV distribution, the Gumbel distribution and the log-normal distribution. This has allowed us to estimate the quantiles of extreme rainfall with return periods of 5, 10, 20, 50 and 100 years for ten rainfall stations. Subsequently, this has allowed us to map the quantiles matching the centennial return period using three types of interpolations.

  16. Influence of meteorological variables on rainfall partitioning for deciduous and coniferous tree species in urban area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zabret, Katarina; Rakovec, Jože; Šraj, Mojca

    2018-03-01

    Rainfall partitioning is an important part of the ecohydrological cycle, influenced by numerous variables. Rainfall partitioning for pine (Pinus nigra Arnold) and birch (Betula pendula Roth.) trees was measured from January 2014 to June 2017 in an urban area of Ljubljana, Slovenia. 180 events from more than three years of observations were analyzed, focusing on 13 meteorological variables, including the number of raindrops, their diameter, and velocity. Regression tree and boosted regression tree analyses were performed to evaluate the influence of the variables on rainfall interception loss, throughfall, and stemflow in different phenoseasons. The amount of rainfall was recognized as the most influential variable, followed by rainfall intensity and the number of raindrops. Higher rainfall amount, intensity, and the number of drops decreased percentage of rainfall interception loss. Rainfall amount and intensity were the most influential on interception loss by birch and pine trees during the leafed and leafless periods, respectively. Lower wind speed was found to increase throughfall, whereas wind direction had no significant influence. Consideration of drop size spectrum properties proved to be important, since the number of drops, drop diameter, and median volume diameter were often recognized as important influential variables.

  17. Analysis of Spatiotemporal Statistical Properties of Rainfall in the Phoenix Metropolitan Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mascaro, G.

    2016-12-01

    The analysis of the rainfall statistical properties at multiple spatiotemporal scales is a necessary preliminary step to support modeling of urban hydrology, including flood prediction and simulation of impacts of land use changes. In this contribution, the rainfall statistical properties are analyzed in the Phoenix Metropolitan area and its surroundings ( 29600 km2) in Arizona using observations from 310 gauges of the Flood Control District of the Maricopa County network. Different techniques are applied to investigate the rainfall properties at temporal scales from 1 min to years and to quantify the associated spatial variability. Results reveal the following. The rainfall regime is characterized by high interannual variability, which is partially explained by teleconnections with El Niño Southern Oscillation, and marked seasonality, with two maxima in the monsoon season from July to September and in winter from November to March. Elevation has a significant control on seasonal rainfall accumulation, strength of thermal convective activity during the monsoon, and peak occurrence of the rainfall diurnal cycle present in summer. The spatial correlation of wintertime rainfall is high even at short aggregation times (cells).

  18. Aerial Photography and Imagery, Ortho-Corrected, 4 inch aerial photography (color, infrared, and color oblique) in urban areas, 1 foot in national forest, Published in 2006, 1:600 (1in=50ft) scale, Los Angeles County Government.

    Data.gov (United States)

    NSGIC Local Govt | GIS Inventory — Aerial Photography and Imagery, Ortho-Corrected dataset current as of 2006. 4 inch aerial photography (color, infrared, and color oblique) in urban areas, 1 foot in...

  19. Sediment yield during typhoon events in relation to landslides, rainfall, and catchment areas in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Chi-Wen; Oguchi, Takashi; Hayakawa, Yuichi S.; Saito, Hitoshi; Chen, Hongey; Lin, Guan-Wei; Wei, Lun-Wei; Chao, Yi-Chiung

    2018-02-01

    Debris sourced from landslides will result in environmental problems such as increased sediment discharge in rivers. This study analyzed the sediment discharge of 17 main rivers in Taiwan during 14 typhoon events, selected from the catchment area and river length, that caused landslides according to government reports. The measured suspended sediment and water discharge, collected from hydrometric stations of the Water Resources Agency of Taiwan, were used to establish rating-curve relationships, a power-law relation between them. Then sediment discharge during typhoon events was estimated using the rating-curve method and the measured data of daily water discharge. Positive correlations between sediment discharge and rainfall conditions for each river indicate that sediment discharge increases when a greater amount of rainfall or a higher intensity of rainfall falls during a typhoon event. In addition, the amount of sediment discharge during a typhoon event is mainly controlled by the total amount of rainfall, not by peak rainfall. Differences in correlation equations among the rivers suggest that catchments with larger areas produce more sediment. Catchments with relatively low sediment discharge show more distinct increases in sediment discharge in response to increases in rainfall, owing to the little opportunity for deposition in small catchments with high connectivity to rivers and the transportation of the majority of landslide debris to rivers during typhoon events. Also, differences in geomorphic and geologic conditions among catchments around Taiwan lead to a variety of suspended sediment dynamics and the sediment budget. Positive correlation between average sediment discharge and average area of landslides during typhoon events indicates that when larger landslides are caused by heavier rainfall during a typhoon event, more loose materials from the most recent landslide debris are flushed into rivers, resulting in higher sediment discharge. The high

  20. Recurring features of extreme autumnall rainfall events on the Veneto coastal area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Barbi

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Recent recurring episodes of heavy flash flood-producing rainfall events on the Veneto coastal area have renewed the interest in documenting the frequency and key dynamical ingredients of such events. A climatological analysis of the precipitation in Veneto reveals that, in comparison with the rest of the region, the coastal area is characterized by fewer rain days, lower rainfall accumulations, yet more days with heavy precipitation. If set in relation to the yearly rainfall, daily accumulation can reach values as high as 40% of the yearly total rainfall, more regularly between 15% and 30%, often in periods of 12 h or less.

    Four such heavy rainfall events were analyzed and synthetically described to highlight key ingredients which appear instrumental in producing the high rainfall accumulations. These comprise an upper-level trough elongating or cutting off into the Western Mediterranean basin after a period of one to two weeks of anticyclonic fair weather conditions with temperatures above normal. The moisture supply over the Adriatic onto north-eastern Italy is favoured by above normal sea surface temperatures, enhanced advection by a surface low in the Gulf of Genoa, and in three of the four cases, an additional surface low over southern Italy. The air flows associated with the upper-level trough for the cases discussed were of moderate to weak intensity, and convectively conditionally unstable. The flow intensity was such that the lower tropospheric portion was blocked by and forced to flow around the Alpine barrier, i.e. manifesting as a north-easterly, low-level flow over much of the north-eastern Italian plains. This blocked flow seemed to interact with the larger-scale synoptic flow to form a distinct and persistent low-level convergence in the area of the Veneto coast.

    It is suggested that these low-level convergence patterns are key in releasing the convective instability present in the larger-scale flow just on the

  1. The effects of rainfall regimes and terracing on runoff and erosion in the Three Gorges area, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Qin-Xue; Wu, Pan; Dai, Jun-Feng; Wang, Tian-Wei; Li, Zhao-Xia; Cai, Chong-Fa; Shi, Zhi-Hua

    2018-04-01

    Changes in natural rainfall regimes have taken place and are expected to become more pronounced in future decades. These changes are also likely to be accompanied by changes in crop management practices. The main purpose of this study was to analyze runoff and soil loss in relation to rainfall regimes and terracing in the Three Gorges area, China. Based on 10 years of field observation and k-mean clusters, 101 rainfall events were grouped into three rainfall regimes. Rainfall regime I was the group of events with strong rainfall intensity, high frequency, and short duration. Rainfall regime III consisted of events with low intensity, long duration, and high rainfall amount. Rainfall regime II was the aggregation of events of high intensity and amount, and less frequent occurrence. The results showed that event runoff coefficients were not significantly different among rainfall regimes. However, the average soil erosion rates in rainfall regimes I and II were significantly higher than that in regime III. The average erosion rates under rainfall regimes I, II, and III were 21.6, 39.7, and 9.8 g m -2 , respectively. The effect of rainfall regime on soil erosion also was changed by terracing. On unterraced cropland, soil erosion rate in rainfall regime I is significantly higher than that in regime III. However, the situation did not exist in unterraced orchard. Terracing significantly reduced runoff and soil erosion, and compensated the effects of rainfall regime on soil erosion, which indicated that runoff and erosion in terraced system may be little influenced by climate change. Based on these results, it was suggested more attention should be paid to the timing of rainfall events in relation to crop development and the high erosion on unterraced citrus orchard to control soil erosion in this area.

  2. Flexible strategies for coping with rainfall variability : seasonal adjustments in cropped area in the Ganges basin

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Siderius, C.; Biemans, H.J.A.; Walsum, van P.E.V.; Ierland, van E.C.; Hellegers, P.J.G.J.

    2016-01-01

    One of the main manifestations of climate change is expected to be increased rainfall variability. How to deal with this in agriculture will be a major societal challenge. In this paper we explore flexibility in land use, through deliberate seasonal adjustments in cropped area, as a specific

  3. Hydrologic conditions and quality of rainfall and storm runoff for two agricultural areas of the Oso Creek Watershed, Nueces County, Texas, 2005-07

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ockerman, Darwin J.

    2008-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Texas State Soil and Water Conservation Board, Coastal Bend Bays and Estuaries Program, and Texas AgriLife Research and Extension Center at Corpus Christi, studied hydrologic conditions and quality of rainfall and storm runoff of two (primarily) agricultural areas (subwatersheds) of the Oso Creek watershed in Nueces County, Texas. One area, the upper West Oso Creek subwatershed, is 5,145 acres. The other area, a subwatershed drained by an unnamed Oso Creek tributary (hereinafter, Oso Creek tributary), is 5,287 acres. Rainfall and runoff (streamflow) were continuously monitored at the outlets of the two subwatersheds during October 2005-September 2007. Fourteen rainfall samples were collected and analyzed for nutrients and major inorganic ions. Nineteen composite runoff samples (10 West Oso Creek, nine Oso Creek tributary) were collected and analyzed for nutrients, major inorganic ions, and pesticides. Twenty-two discrete suspended-sediment samples (10 West Oso Creek, 12 Oso Creek tributary) and 13 bacteria samples (eight West Oso Creek, five Oso Creek tributary) were collected and analyzed. These data were used to estimate, for selected constituents, rainfall deposition to and runoff loads and yields from the study subwatersheds. Quantities of fertilizers and pesticides applied in the subwatersheds were compared with quantities of nutrients and pesticides in rainfall and runoff. For the study period, total rainfall was greater than average. Most of the runoff at both subwatershed outlet sites occurred in response to a few specific storm periods. The West Oso Creek subwatershed produced more runoff during the study period than the Oso Creek tributary subwatershed, 10.83 inches compared with 7.28 inches. Runoff response was quicker and peak flows were higher in the West Oso Creek subwatershed than in the Oso Creek tributary subwatershed. Total nitrogen runoff yield for the 2-year study period averaged 2.61 pounds

  4. Polymer blend lithography for metal films: large-area patterning with over 1 billion holes/inch(2).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Cheng; Förste, Alexander; Walheim, Stefan; Schimmel, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    Polymer blend lithography (PBL) is a spin-coating-based technique that makes use of the purely lateral phase separation between two immiscible polymers to fabricate large area nanoscale patterns. In our earlier work (Huang et al. 2012), PBL was demonstrated for the fabrication of patterned self-assembled monolayers. Here, we report a new method based on the technique of polymer blend lithography that allows for the fabrication of metal island arrays or perforated metal films on the nanometer scale, the metal PBL. As the polymer blend system in this work, a mixture of polystyrene (PS) and poly(methyl methacrylate) (PMMA), dissolved in methyl ethyl ketone (MEK) is used. This system forms a purely lateral structure on the substrate at controlled humidity, which means that PS droplets are formed in a PMMA matrix, whereby both phases have direct contact both to the substrate and to the air interface. Therefore, a subsequent selective dissolution of either the PS or PMMA component leaves behind a nanostructured film which can be used as a lithographic mask. We use this lithographic mask for the fabrication of metal patterns by thermal evaporation of the metal, followed by a lift-off process. As a consequence, the resulting metal nanostructure is an exact replica of the pattern of the selectively removed polymer (either a perforated metal film or metal islands). The minimum diameter of these holes or metal islands demonstrated here is about 50 nm. Au, Pd, Cu, Cr and Al templates were fabricated in this work by metal PBL. The wavelength-selective optical transmission spectra due to the localized surface plasmonic effect of the holes in perforated Al films were investigated and compared to the respective hole diameter histograms.

  5. Polymer blend lithography for metal films: large-area patterning with over 1 billion holes/inch2

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheng Huang

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Polymer blend lithography (PBL is a spin-coating-based technique that makes use of the purely lateral phase separation between two immiscible polymers to fabricate large area nanoscale patterns. In our earlier work (Huang et al. 2012, PBL was demonstrated for the fabrication of patterned self-assembled monolayers. Here, we report a new method based on the technique of polymer blend lithography that allows for the fabrication of metal island arrays or perforated metal films on the nanometer scale, the metal PBL. As the polymer blend system in this work, a mixture of polystyrene (PS and poly(methyl methacrylate (PMMA, dissolved in methyl ethyl ketone (MEK is used. This system forms a purely lateral structure on the substrate at controlled humidity, which means that PS droplets are formed in a PMMA matrix, whereby both phases have direct contact both to the substrate and to the air interface. Therefore, a subsequent selective dissolution of either the PS or PMMA component leaves behind a nanostructured film which can be used as a lithographic mask. We use this lithographic mask for the fabrication of metal patterns by thermal evaporation of the metal, followed by a lift-off process. As a consequence, the resulting metal nanostructure is an exact replica of the pattern of the selectively removed polymer (either a perforated metal film or metal islands. The minimum diameter of these holes or metal islands demonstrated here is about 50 nm. Au, Pd, Cu, Cr and Al templates were fabricated in this work by metal PBL. The wavelength-selective optical transmission spectra due to the localized surface plasmonic effect of the holes in perforated Al films were investigated and compared to the respective hole diameter histograms.

  6. Hydrologic conditions and water quality of rainfall and storm runoff for two agricultural areas of the Oso Creek watershed, Nueces County, Texas, 2005-08

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ockerman, Darwin J.; Fernandez, Carlos J.

    2010-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Texas State Soil and Water Conservation Board, Coastal Bend Bays and Estuaries Program, and Texas AgriLife Research and Extension Center at Corpus Christi, studied hydrologic conditions and water quality of rainfall and storm runoff of two primarily agricultural subwatersheds of the Oso Creek watershed in Nueces County, Texas. One area, the upper West Oso Creek subwatershed, is about 5,145 acres. The other area, a subwatershed drained by an unnamed tributary to Oso Creek (hereinafter, Oso Creek tributary), is about 5,287 acres. Rainfall and runoff (streamflow) were continuously monitored at the outlets of the two subwatersheds during the study period October 2005-September 2008. Seventeen rainfall samples were collected and analyzed for nutrients and major inorganic ions. Twenty-four composite runoff water-quality samples (12 at West Oso Creek, 12 at Oso Creek tributary) were collected and analyzed for nutrients, major inorganic ions, and pesticides. Twenty-six discrete suspended-sediment samples (12 West Oso Creek, 14 Oso Creek tributary) and 17 bacteria samples (10 West Oso Creek, 7 Oso Creek tributary) were collected and analyzed. These data were used to estimate, for selected constituents, rainfall deposition to and runoff loads and yields from the two subwatersheds. Quantities of fertilizers and pesticides applied in the two subwatersheds were compared with quantities of nutrients and pesticides in rainfall and runoff. For the study period, total rainfall was greater than average. Most of the runoff from the two subwatersheds occurred in response to a few specific storm periods. The West Oso Creek subwatershed produced more runoff during the study period than the Oso Creek tributary subwatershed, 13.95 inches compared with 9.45 inches. Runoff response was quicker and peak flows were higher in the West Oso Creek subwatershed than in the Oso Creek tributary subwatershed. Total nitrogen runoff yield for the 3

  7. A Regional Stable Carbon Isotope Dendro-Climatology from the South African Summer Rainfall Area.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephan Woodborne

    Full Text Available Carbon isotope analysis of four baobab (Adansonia digitata L. trees from the Pafuri region of South Africa yielded a 1000-year proxy rainfall record. The Pafuri record age model was based on 17 radiocarbon dates, cross correlation of the climate record, and ring structures that were presumed to be annual for two of the trees. Here we present the analysis of five additional baobabs from the Mapungubwe region, approximately 200km west of Pafuri. The Mapungubwe chronology demonstrates that ring structures are not necessarily annually formed, and accordingly the Pafuri chronology is revised. Changes in intrinsic water-use efficiency indicate an active response by the trees to elevated atmospheric CO2, but this has little effect on the environmental signal. The revised Pafuri record, and the new Mapungubwe record correlate significantly with local rainfall. Both records confirm that the Medieval Warm Period was substantially wetter than present, and the Little Ice Age was the driest period in the last 1000 years. Although Mapungubwe is generally drier than Pafuri, both regions experience elevated rainfall peaking between AD 1570 and AD 1620 after which dry conditions persist in the Mapungubwe area until about AD 1840. Differences between the two records correlate with Agulhas Current sea-surface temperature variations suggesting east/west displacement of the temperate tropical trough system as an underlying mechanism. The Pafuri and Mapungubwe records are combined to provide a regional climate proxy record for the northern summer rainfall area of southern Africa.

  8. Adjusting Satellite Rainfall Error in Mountainous Areas for Flood Modeling Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, X.; Anagnostou, E. N.; Astitha, M.; Vergara, H. J.; Gourley, J. J.; Hong, Y.

    2014-12-01

    This study aims to investigate the use of high-resolution Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) for evaluating biases of satellite rainfall estimates of flood-inducing storms in mountainous areas and associated improvements in flood modeling. Satellite-retrieved precipitation has been considered as a feasible data source for global-scale flood modeling, given that satellite has the spatial coverage advantage over in situ (rain gauges and radar) observations particularly over mountainous areas. However, orographically induced heavy precipitation events tend to be underestimated and spatially smoothed by satellite products, which error propagates non-linearly in flood simulations.We apply a recently developed retrieval error and resolution effect correction method (Zhang et al. 2013*) on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center morphing technique (CMORPH) product based on NWP analysis (or forecasting in the case of real-time satellite products). The NWP rainfall is derived from the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) set up with high spatial resolution (1-2 km) and explicit treatment of precipitation microphysics.In this study we will show results on NWP-adjusted CMORPH rain rates based on tropical cyclones and a convective precipitation event measured during NASA's IPHEX experiment in the South Appalachian region. We will use hydrologic simulations over different basins in the region to evaluate propagation of bias correction in flood simulations. We show that the adjustment reduced the underestimation of high rain rates thus moderating the strong rainfall magnitude dependence of CMORPH rainfall bias, which results in significant improvement in flood peak simulations. Further study over Blue Nile Basin (western Ethiopia) will be investigated and included in the presentation. *Zhang, X. et al. 2013: Using NWP Simulations in Satellite Rainfall Estimation of Heavy Precipitation Events over Mountainous Areas. J. Hydrometeor, 14, 1844-1858.

  9. The 1970 Clean Air Act and termination of rainfall suppression in a U.S. urban area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diem, Jeremy E.

    2013-08-01

    The purpose of this paper is to determine the impact of reduced atmospheric particulate resulting from the Clean Air Act of 1970 on changes in summer rainfall in the Atlanta, Georgia USA region. In order to determine if rainfall at nine candidate stations in the metropolitan area was influenced by changes in particulate concentrations within the 1948-2009 period, predicted rainfall characteristics were derived from rainfall frequencies at nine reference stations located more than 80 km from downtown Atlanta. Both parametric and non-parametric tests were used to test for significant differences between observed values and predicted values within 34 overlapping 30-year periods. For the country as a whole, emissions of PM10 (i.e. particulates with a diameter less than or equal to 10 μm) decreased by approximately 40% from 1970 to 1975. The reduction in emissions caused a rapid rebound in summer rainfall in the Atlanta region. There was suppression of rainfall over and downwind of the Atlanta urbanized area during 30-yr periods that comprise all or portions of the decades of the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s. This suppression occurred even while urban-related factors that promote rainfall enhancement were present. During the 1948-1977 suppression period, there was a decrease in rainfall of at least 40 mm at affected locales, which is substantial given that the mean seasonal rainfall was approximately 300 mm. The rainfall suppression involved a decrease of heavy-rainfall days. Atlanta is most likely not a unique case; therefore, particulate-induced rainfall suppression might have occurred over and downwind of other U.S. urban areas prior to the late 1970s.

  10. Analysis of shallow landslides and soil erosion induced by rainfall over large areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuomo, Sabatino; Della Sala, Maria

    2014-05-01

    Due to heavy rainstorms, steep hillslopes may be affected by either shallow landslides or soil superficial erosion (Acharya et al., 2011), which originate different flow-like mass movements in adjacent or overlapping source areas (Cascini et al., 2013). Triggering analysis (Cascini et al., 2011) is a relevant issue for hazard assessment that is, in turn, the first step of risk analysis procedures (Fell et al., 2008). Nevertheless, the available approaches separately consider shallow landslides and soil erosion. Specifically, quantitative models for landslides triggering analysis allow simulating the physical processes leading to failure such as pore water pressure increase and soil shear mobilization and provide estimates of the amount of material potentially involved; however, success of quantitative methods must be carefully evaluated in complex geological setting as recently outlined (Sorbino et al., 2010) and further applications to real case histories are straightforward. On the other hand, a wide range of models exist for soil erosion analysis, which differ in terms of complexity, processes considered and data required for the model calibration and practical applications; in particular, quantitative models can estimate the source areas and the amount of eroded soil through empirical relationships or mathematical equations describing the main physical processes governing soil erosion (Merritt et al., 2003). In this work a spatially distributed analysis is proposed for testing the potentialities of two available models to respectively investigate the spatial occurrence of first-time shallow landslides and superficial soil erosion repeatedly occurring in a large test area of the Southern Italy. Both analyses take into account the seasonal variation of soil suction, rainfall characteristics and soil cover use (Cuomo and Della Sala, 2013). The achieved results show that the source areas of shallow landslides strongly depend on rainfall intensity and duration and

  11. Concentration of radiocesium in stream water from a mountainous catchment area during rainfall events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakamura, Kimihito; Yasutaka, Tetsuo; Hatakeyama, Masato

    2013-01-01

    Terrestrial and aquatic systems were contaminated with radioactive materials following the nuclear accident at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station on 11 March, 2011. It is important that levels of radiocesium (Cs) in stream water from affected areas be monitored as this water is used for paddy irrigation and domestic water. Additionally, soil particles and organic matter from the streams are deposited in rivers, estuaries and into the ocean. Predictions suggest that Cs levels will increase during intense rainfall-runoff events. To check this prediction, we monitored temporal changes in runoff events and Cs levels in stream water from a mountainous catchment area northwest of the Fukushima plant. In March and April, 2012, the concentrations of Cs and suspended solids (SS) in stream water taken from low-level water flow were found to be 0.2-0.3 Bq/L and 2-7 mg/L, respectively. A heavy rainfall event in July 2012 resulted in an increase and subsequent decrease of both the runoff volume and SS concentration. At the beginning of the rainfall event the concentration of Cs absorbed in the SS was measured to be 23 Bq/L, this decreased gradually to 0.3 Bq/L over the course of the event. The concentration of Cs dissolved in the water was 0.1 Bq/L, this decreased only slightly during the runoff event. During a low rainfall event in September 2012 the concentration of Cs absorbed in the SS at the beginning of the rainfall event was found to be 15 Bq/L, this decreased gradually to 0.5 Bq/L as the amount of SS in the water decreased. The concentration of Cs dissolved in the water was 0.2 Bq/L, again this decreased only slightly over the course of the runoff event. The Cs levels in stream water, during rainfall-runoff events, were primary influenced by the concentration of SS. The amount of Cs dissolved in the water, on the other hand, was roughly constant at 0.1-0.2 Bq/L. The results of this study indicate that, although the concentration of Cs in stream water is below the

  12. Concentration of radiocesium in stream water from a mountainous catchment area during rainfall events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakamura, Kimihito; Yasutaka, Tetsuo; Hatakeyama, Masato

    2012-01-01

    Terrestrial and aquatic systems were contaminated with radioactive materials following the nuclear accident at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station on 11 March, 2011. It is important that levels of radiocesium (Cs) in stream water from affected areas be monitored as this water is used for paddy irrigation and domestic water. Additionally, soil particles and organic matter from the streams are deposited in rivers, estuaries and into the ocean. Predictions suggest that Cs levels will increase during intense rainfall-runoff events. To check this prediction, we monitored temporal changes in runoff events and Cs levels in stream water from a mountainous catchment area northwest of the Fukushima plant. In March and April, 2012, the concentrations of Cs and suspended solids (SS) in stream water taken from low-level water flow were found to be 0.2–0.3 Bq/L and 2–7 mg/L, respectively. A heavy rainfall event in July 2012 resulted in an increase and subsequent decrease of both the runoff volume and SS concentration. At the beginning of the rainfall event the concentration of Cs absorbed in the SS was measured to be 23 Bq/L, this decreased gradually to 0.3 Bq/L over the course of the event. The concentration of Cs dissolved in the water was 0.1 Bq/L, this decreased only slightly during the runoff event. During a low rainfall event in September 2012 the concentration of Cs absorbed in the SS at the beginning of the rainfall event was found to be 15 Bq/L, this decreased gradually to 0.5 Bq/L as the amount of SS in the water decreased. The concentration of Cs dissolved in the water was 0.2 Bq/L, again this decreased only slightly over the course of the runoff event. The Cs levels in stream water, during rainfall-runoff events, were primary influenced by the concentration of SS. The amount of Cs dissolved in the water, on the other hand, was roughly constant at 0.1–0.2 Bq/L. The results of this study indicate that, although the concentration of Cs in stream water is below

  13. Transport of sediments, carbon and nutrients in areas of reforestation and grassland based on simulated rainfall

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adilson Pinheiro

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to evaluate the soil losses, as well as carbon and chemical samples in runoff through areas of pine (Pinus taeda, eucalyptus (Eucalyptus dunni and a consortium of pasture with oat (Avena stringosa and ryegrass (Lolium multiflorium in the Fragosos river basin, in Concordia, SC. For this, rainfall simulations with mean intensities of 94 mm h-1 were conducted in September and November 2011, in plots of 1 m2 established in the three areas. Runoff, loads carried of the sediment, and carbon and chemical concentrations were quantified in the experiment. The results showed that the concentrations of sediment and organic carbon were higher in the eucalyptus area. The largest concentrations of chemicals for all areas were nitrate, calcium, magnesium and potassium. Total carbon, organic carbon, sediment and nitrate were transported in higher loads in the eucalyptus area. With the exception of nitrate and chloride, the chemical loads carried were higher in the pasture area.

  14. Monitoring water vapour with GNSS during a heavy rainfall event in the Spanish Mediterranean area

    OpenAIRE

    Priego De Los Santos, Enrique; Jones, J.; Porres De La Haza, Maria Joaquina; SECO MENESES, ANDRÉS

    2017-01-01

    [EN] The Spanish Mediterranean area is periodically affected by torrential rainfall events during autumn. In September 2012, one of these episodes took place with up to 50 mm of rain in a 1-hour period and with more he results show a mean increase in IWV of around 30 kg/m2 occurring prior to heavy recipitation. They further revealed an increase of up to a 100% in IWV values in several GNSS stations available in the study area. Fluctuations in IWV fields correlate well with approaching frontal...

  15. Flexible Strategies for Coping with Rainfall Variability: Seasonal Adjustments in Cropped Area in the Ganges Basin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siderius, Christian; Biemans, Hester; van Walsum, Paul E V; van Ierland, Ekko C; Kabat, Pavel; Hellegers, Petra J G J

    2016-01-01

    One of the main manifestations of climate change will be increased rainfall variability. How to deal with this in agriculture will be a major societal challenge. In this paper we explore flexibility in land use, through deliberate seasonal adjustments in cropped area, as a specific strategy for coping with rainfall variability. Such adjustments are not incorporated in hydro-meteorological crop models commonly used for food security analyses. Our paper contributes to the literature by making a comprehensive model assessment of inter-annual variability in crop production, including both variations in crop yield and cropped area. The Ganges basin is used as a case study. First, we assessed the contribution of cropped area variability to overall variability in rice and wheat production by applying hierarchical partitioning on time-series of agricultural statistics. We then introduced cropped area as an endogenous decision variable in a hydro-economic optimization model (WaterWise), coupled to a hydrology-vegetation model (LPJmL), and analyzed to what extent its performance in the estimation of inter-annual variability in crop production improved. From the statistics, we found that in the period 1999-2009 seasonal adjustment in cropped area can explain almost 50% of variability in wheat production and 40% of variability in rice production in the Indian part of the Ganges basin. Our improved model was well capable of mimicking existing variability at different spatial aggregation levels, especially for wheat. The value of flexibility, i.e. the foregone costs of choosing not to crop in years when water is scarce, was quantified at 4% of gross margin of wheat in the Indian part of the Ganges basin and as high as 34% of gross margin of wheat in the drought-prone state of Rajasthan. We argue that flexibility in land use is an important coping strategy to rainfall variability in water stressed regions.

  16. Flexible Strategies for Coping with Rainfall Variability: Seasonal Adjustments in Cropped Area in the Ganges Basin.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Siderius

    Full Text Available One of the main manifestations of climate change will be increased rainfall variability. How to deal with this in agriculture will be a major societal challenge. In this paper we explore flexibility in land use, through deliberate seasonal adjustments in cropped area, as a specific strategy for coping with rainfall variability. Such adjustments are not incorporated in hydro-meteorological crop models commonly used for food security analyses. Our paper contributes to the literature by making a comprehensive model assessment of inter-annual variability in crop production, including both variations in crop yield and cropped area. The Ganges basin is used as a case study. First, we assessed the contribution of cropped area variability to overall variability in rice and wheat production by applying hierarchical partitioning on time-series of agricultural statistics. We then introduced cropped area as an endogenous decision variable in a hydro-economic optimization model (WaterWise, coupled to a hydrology-vegetation model (LPJmL, and analyzed to what extent its performance in the estimation of inter-annual variability in crop production improved. From the statistics, we found that in the period 1999-2009 seasonal adjustment in cropped area can explain almost 50% of variability in wheat production and 40% of variability in rice production in the Indian part of the Ganges basin. Our improved model was well capable of mimicking existing variability at different spatial aggregation levels, especially for wheat. The value of flexibility, i.e. the foregone costs of choosing not to crop in years when water is scarce, was quantified at 4% of gross margin of wheat in the Indian part of the Ganges basin and as high as 34% of gross margin of wheat in the drought-prone state of Rajasthan. We argue that flexibility in land use is an important coping strategy to rainfall variability in water stressed regions.

  17. A study of rainfall in the Roman area in the years 1951-2000

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Testa, O.; Colacino, M.; Lavagnini, A.; Malvestuto, V.

    2006-01-01

    The daily rainfall data collected in the second half of the last century at 31 climatic stations in Lazio, Italy, have been subjected to statistical analysis in order to describe the pluviometric regime of the whole area on a multi-decadal time scale. The stations, for their geographical distribution within the region under study, are apt to represent different climatic zones, namely, a coastal, a rural, a suburban and an urban zone. The data have been treated both as time series and as geographical statistical variates with the double aim, first, to verify if in the area under study any changes in the yearly precipitation rate, frequency and its distribution over different classes of rain intensity, have occurred in the last 50 years; second, to evidence a possible correlation between the intensity of precipitation and any of some environmental variables such as altitude, distance from the coastline and distance from the urban site. As for the first issue, it can be concluded that the precipitations over the Roman area in the period 1951-2000 show no significant trend; in particular, no trend is visible in any of the single classes of rain intensity, both absolute and percentile-based, considering either their frequency or their percent contribution to the total. As for the second issue, significant correlations have been found in the spatial distribution of rainfall with any of the relevant environmental variables mentioned above. The results of the analysis also show that in the urban area a less amount of rain seem to fall than in the surroundings zones, a result that seems rather anomalous in consideration of the several known factors that favour the intensification of the rainfall in the city with respect to its surroundings. A detailed statistical characterization of all the single 31 stations over the whole period is also given via a separate study of the durations of droughts and of the statistics of rainy days, using best fits based on the Weibull

  18. A method for estimating peak and time of peak streamflow from excess rainfall for 10- to 640-acre watersheds in the Houston, Texas, metropolitan area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asquith, William H.; Cleveland, Theodore G.; Roussel, Meghan C.

    2011-01-01

    method in terms of excess rainfall (the excess rational method). Both the unit hydrograph method and excess rational method are shown to provide similar estimates of peak and time of peak streamflow. The results from the two methods can be combined by using arithmetic means. A nomograph is provided that shows the respective relations between the arithmetic-mean peak and time of peak streamflow to drainage areas ranging from 10 to 640 acres. The nomograph also shows the respective relations for selected BDF ranging from undeveloped to fully developed conditions. The nomograph represents the peak streamflow for 1 inch of excess rainfall based on drainage area and BDF; the peak streamflow for design storms from the nomograph can be multiplied by the excess rainfall to estimate peak streamflow. Time of peak streamflow is readily obtained from the nomograph. Therefore, given excess rainfall values derived from watershed-loss models, which are beyond the scope of this report, the nomograph represents a method for estimating peak and time of peak streamflow for applicable watersheds in the Houston metropolitan area. Lastly, analysis of the relative influence of BDF on peak streamflow is provided, and the results indicate a 0:04log10 cubic feet per second change of peak streamflow per positive unit of change in BDF. This relative change can be used to adjust peak streamflow from the method or other hydrologic methods for a given BDF to other BDF values; example computations are provided.

  19. Simple Method for Assessing Spread of Flood Prone Areas under Historical and Future Rainfall in the Upper Citarum Watershed

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bambang Dwi Dasanto

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available From 1931 to 2010 the flood frequency in Upper Citarum Watershed had increased sharply indicating the decline of the wateshed quality. With the change of climate, risk of the flood may get worse. This study aims to determine effective rainfall that caused flooding and to evaluate the impact of future rainfall changes on the flood prone areas. Effective rainfall which contributes to direct runoff (DRO and leads to flooding was determined using regression equation relating the DRO and cumulative rainfall of a number of consecutive days. Mapping the flood prone areas was developed using the GIS techniques. Results showed that the effective rainfall which caused flooding was the rainfall accumulation for four consecutive days before occurrence of peak of DRO. The percentage of accuracy between estimated and actual flood maps was about 76.9%. According to historical rainfall, the flood prone areas spreaded at right and left directions of the Upstream Citarum River. If this area experiences the climate change, the frequency and flood extents will increase. This study can only identify locations and possibility of flood occurrence but it cannot demonstrate widespread of flood inundation precisely. However, this simple approach can evaluate the flood frequency and intensity quite well.

  20. Evaluation of atmospheric thermodynamics and dynamics during heavy-rainfall and no-rainfall events in the metropolitan area of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    da Silva, Fabricio Polifke; Rotunno Filho, Otto Corrêa; Sampaio, Rafael João; Dragaud, Ian Cunha D'amato Viana; de Araújo, Afonso Augusto Magalhães; Justi da Silva, Maria Gertrudes Alvarez; Pires, Gisele Dornelles

    2017-12-01

    Local prediction of thunderstorms is one of the most challenging tasks in weather forecasting due to their high spatiotemporal variability. An improved understanding of such meteorological phenomena, therefore, requires high-frequency measurements along the vertical profile of the atmosphere of interest. In this context, the evaluation of thermodynamic and dynamic parameters obtained from radiosondes to identify atmospheric conditions favorable to thunderstorm and heavy-rainfall development emerges as a valuable tool for investigations of thunderstorms. In this context, four radiosondes were launched to collect a data set for the area of interest at the sub-daily scale (12 UTC, 16 UTC, 18 UTC, and 00 UTC). The collection period encompassed two dates—November 29 and December 12, 2016—chosen specifically due to the existence of heavy-rainfall warnings in the forecast for the Metropolitan Area of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil ("MARJ") for those days. However, heavy rainfall was registered only for December 12 and not for November 29 (which led us to explore this contrast with the announced rainfall forecasts). Sub-daily radiosonde data showed a clear decrease in atmospheric instability in the early afternoon on November 29. On the other hand, an opposite scenario occurred on December 12, which saw an expressive increase in thermodynamic instability during the day. The meteorological modeling approach used also revealed that the vertical coupling of low-level moisture flux convergence centers and upper-level mass flux divergence centers worked as a dynamic trigger for the thunderstorm and heavy-rainfall developments that took place on December 12, 2016.

  1. Estimation of Areal Mean Rainfall in Remote Areas Using B-SHADE Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tao Zhang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This study presented a method to estimate areal mean rainfall (AMR using a Biased Sentinel Hospital Based Area Disease Estimation (B-SHADE model, together with biased rain gauge observations and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM data, for remote areas with a sparse and uneven distribution of rain gauges. Based on the B-SHADE model, the best linear unbiased estimation of AMR could be obtained. A case study was conducted for the Three-River Headwaters region in the Tibetan Plateau of China, and its performance was compared with traditional methods. The results indicated that B-SHADE obtained the least estimation biases, with a mean error and root mean square error of −0.63 and 3.48 mm, respectively. For the traditional methods including arithmetic average, Thiessen polygon, and ordinary kriging, the mean errors were 7.11, −1.43, and 2.89 mm, which were up to 1027.1%, 127.0%, and 358.3%, respectively, greater than for the B-SHADE model. The root mean square errors were 10.31, 4.02, and 6.27 mm, which were up to 196.1%, 15.5%, and 80.0%, respectively, higher than for the B-SHADE model. The proposed technique can be used to extend the AMR record to the presatellite observation period, when only the gauge data are available.

  2. Rainfall-soil moisture relations in landslide-prone areas of a tropical rain forest, Puerto Rico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larsen, Matthew C.; Torres-Sanchez, Angel J.; Krishna, J.H.; Quinones-Aponte, Vicente; Gomez-Gomez, Fernando; Morris, G.L.

    1990-01-01

    Soil moisture conditions are not well documented in steep, tropical landslide-prone terrain. In the 11,330 ha Caribbean National Forest (CNF) in northeastern Puerto Rico more than 170 landslides that occurred from one to approximately 60 years ago have been mapped. Most of these landslides are shallow, with failure depths of 0.5 ot 7 m, and are associated with periods of intense, prolonged rainfall. Annual rainfall in the CNF ranges from 2,500 to more than 4,000 mm. Rainfall intensities of up to 65 mm/h have been recorded in the area during hurricanes.

  3. Extreme rainfall events in karst environments: the case study of September 2014 in the Gargano area (southern Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinotti, Maria Elena; Pisano, Luca; Trabace, Maria; Marchesini, Ivan; Peruccacci, Silvia; Rossi, Mauro; Amoruso, Giuseppe; Loiacono, Pierluigi; Vennari, Carmela; Vessia, Giovanna; Parise, Mario; Brunetti, Maria Teresa

    2015-04-01

    In the first week of September 2014, the Gargano Promontory (Apulia, SE Italy) was hit by an extreme rainfall event that caused several landslides, floods and sinkholes. As a consequence of the floods, two people lost their lives and severe socio-economic damages were reported. The highest peaks of rainfall were recorded between September 3rd and 6th at the Cagnano Varano and San Marco in Lamis rain gauges with a maximum daily rainfall (over 230 mm) that is about 30% the mean annual rainfall. The Gargano Promontory is characterized by complex orographic conditions, with the highest elevation of about 1000 m a.s.l. The geological setting consists of different types of carbonate deposits affected by intensive development of karst processes. The morphological and climatic settings of the area, associated with frequent extreme rainfall events can cause various types of geohazards (e.g., landslides, floods, sinkholes). A further element enhancing the natural predisposition of the area to the occurrence of landslides, floods and sinkholes is an intense human activity, characterized by an inappropriate land use and management. In order to obtain consistent and reliable data on the effects produced by the storm, a systematic collection of information through field observations, a critical analysis of newspaper articles and web-news, and a co-operation with the Regional Civil Protection and local geologists started immediately after the event. The information collected has been organized in a database including the location, the occurrence time and the type of geohazard documented with photographs. The September 2014 extreme rainfall event in the Gargano Promontory was also analyzed to validate the forecasts issued by the Italian national early-warning system for rainfall-induced landslides (SANF), developed by the Research Institute for Geo-Hydrological Protection (IRPI) for the Italian national Department for Civil Protection (DPC). SANF compares rainfall measurements and

  4. A Merging Framework for Rainfall Estimation at High Spatiotemporal Resolution for Distributed Hydrological Modeling in a Data-Scarce Area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yinping Long

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Merging satellite and rain gauge data by combining accurate quantitative rainfall from stations with spatial continuous information from remote sensing observations provides a practical method of estimating rainfall. However, generating high spatiotemporal rainfall fields for catchment-distributed hydrological modeling is a problem when only a sparse rain gauge network and coarse spatial resolution of satellite data are available. The objective of the study is to present a satellite and rain gauge data-merging framework adapting for coarse resolution and data-sparse designs. In the framework, a statistical spatial downscaling method based on the relationships among precipitation, topographical features, and weather conditions was used to downscale the 0.25° daily rainfall field derived from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA precipitation product version 7. The nonparametric merging technique of double kernel smoothing, adapting for data-sparse design, was combined with the global optimization method of shuffled complex evolution, to merge the downscaled TRMM and gauged rainfall with minimum cross-validation error. An indicator field representing the presence and absence of rainfall was generated using the indicator kriging technique and applied to the previously merged result to consider the spatial intermittency of daily rainfall. The framework was applied to estimate daily precipitation at a 1 km resolution in the Qinghai Lake Basin, a data-scarce area in the northeast of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The final estimates not only captured the spatial pattern of daily and annual precipitation with a relatively small estimation error, but also performed very well in stream flow simulation when applied to force the geomorphology-based hydrological model (GBHM. The proposed framework thus appears feasible for rainfall estimation at high spatiotemporal resolution in data-scarce areas.

  5. Integrating X-MP radar data to estimate rainfall induced debris flow in the Merapi volcanic area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Syarifuddin, Magfira; Oishi, Satoru; Legono, Djoko; Hapsari, Ratih Indri; Iguchi, Masato

    2017-12-01

    After the 2010 eruption, more than 50 volcanic debris flow (lahar) events occurred during the rainy season of 2010-2011 at Mount Merapi, Indonesia. The lahars occurred following rainfall of severe intensity in the upstream area, where remaining volcanic material was deposited. Estimation of rainfall-induced lahars at Mt. Merapi is difficult and uncertain because the upstream area is dangerous and inaccessible. On 17 February 2016, a lahar occurred in the upstream region of the Gendol River on the southeastern flank of Mt. Merapi after a maximum rainfall intensity of 69 mm/h was monitored on the peak of Mt. Merapi by X-band multi-parameter (X-MP) radar. In this study, rainfall intensity estimates from X-MP radar were applied to generate boundary discharge of a numerical model of debris flow at the catchment scale. The numerical simulation was able to estimate volcanic debris flow occurrence and magnitude. The reliability of radar-rainfall data and the effects of the sabo dam on reducing the impacts of lahar disaster were also examined. The numerical lahar simulation showed relevant results that were comparable to the real condition. The closed type sabo dam caused more than 50% lahar sediment decrement and a flow delay time of 40 min. However, the sediment accumulation has caused increasing flow velocity and higher erosion rate in the 2D area. This study demonstrated the effectiveness of remote monitoring of rainfall combined with numerical debris flow modeling for applied practical use in disaster management.

  6. Enhancing a Distributed Rainfall Intensity for Flood Analysis within a GIS Framework in an Urban Area (Kajang Flood)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salleh, S. H. M.; Sidek, L. M.

    2016-03-01

    The town of Kajang has experienced major flood events in previous decades since 1970s. Due to Eastern and Western Monsoon seasons in Malaysia, Kajang has potential to face with number of flood events. One of the critical elements in flood analysis is rainfall distribution. Therefore, flood studies need to have an optimum cognition of rainfall distribution as main input. In this study, HEC GeoHMS model was used in GIS (Geographic Information System) for Sungai Jeluh catchment (Kajang) due to estimation (visualization) of distributed rainfall in Kajang. In comparison with conventional methods, which they produced rainfall in lumped mode (e.g. Thiessen’s polygon), HEC GeoHMS visualized and tabulate a full distribution of rainfall for each small part (pixel of map) in a case study. HEC GeoHMS model for Sungai Jeluh has been set up by feeding high resolution of spatial and temporal resolution data (precipitation). Result of this study shows that rainfall by high intensity is distributed near urban area (downtown) in comparison with upstream which involved with less rainfall intensity.

  7. Rainfall-induced landslide vulnerability Assessment in urban area reflecting Urban structure and building characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, C.; Cho, M.; Lee, D.

    2017-12-01

    Landslide vulnerability assessment methodology of urban area is proposed with urban structure and building charateristics which can consider total damage cost of climate impacts. We used probabilistic analysis method for modeling rainfall-induced shallow landslide susceptibility by slope stability analysis and Monte Carlo simulations. And We combined debris flows with considering spatial movements under topographical condition and built environmental condition. Urban vulnerability of landslide is assessed by two categories: physical demages and urban structure aspect. Physical vulnerability is related to buildings, road, other ubran infra. Urban structure vulnerability is considered a function of the socio-economic factors, trigger factor of secondary damage, and preparedness level of the local government. An index-based model is developed to evaluate the life and indirect damage under landslide as well as the resilience ability against disasters. The analysis was performed in a geographic information system (GIS) environment because GIS can deal efficiently with a large volume of spatial data. The results of the landslide susceptibility assessment were compared with the landslide inventory, and the proposed approach demonstrated good predictive performance. The general trend found in this study indicates that the higher population density areas under a weaker fiscal condition that are located at the downstream of mountainous areas are more vulnerable than the areas in opposite conditions.

  8. Changes of rainfall extremes around the haor basin areas of Bangladesh using multi-member ensemble RCM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nowreen, Sara; Murshed, Sonia Binte; Islam, A. K. M. Saiful; Bhaskaran, B.; Hasan, Mohammad Alfi

    2015-01-01

    Haors are large, round-shaped floodplain depressions located in the North-Eastern region of Bangladesh. Extreme events such as heavy rainfall routinely affect the haor basin with flash floods. These haors are predicted to experience severe stress because of changes in rainfall and temperature patterns. The biotic community of the wetlands may not have enough time to adjust itself in such varying temperature and rainfall extremes. This paper evaluates various aspects of the future projections of rainfall and temperature extremes, including magnitudes and frequencies thereof. The impacts of extreme events are examined using Hadley Centre's high-resolution regional climate model known as PRECIS (Providing REgional Climates for Impact Studies). Daily temperature and rainfall simulations of the 17-member ensembles are generated through Hadley Centre Coupled Model (HadCM3). These simulations are used in Rclimdex—a software specially designed for this study. A total of 12 core climate indices are computed, analyzed, and statistically examined (Mann-Whitney U test) over the space of three time slices—(1) short (2020s, i.e., 2011-2040), (2) medium (2050s, i.e., 2041-2070), and (3) long (2080s, i.e., 2071-2098). Here, the 1980s (1971-2000) are considered as the baseline period. The study has found that the highest significant variability in both rainfalls and temperatures was during the pre-monsoon season when flash floods normally occur. Also, rainy days are projected to be less frequent albeit more intense where the deeply flooded haors are located. Though the annual total rainfall does not show any difference in spatial distribution (except for in magnitude), the seasonal patterns of most extreme events show that the probable affected areas have shifted from North-east to further North. In addition, a significant increase in both RX1 (1-day maximum rainfall) and RX5 (5-day maximum rainfall) are projected during the 2080's pre-monsoon season near Sunamganj. This

  9. Ultrasonographic median nerve cross-section areas measured by 8-point 'inching test' for idiopathic carpal tunnel syndrome: a correlation of nerve conduction study severity and duration of clinical symptoms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Shu-Fang; Lu, Cheng-Hsien; Huang, Chi-Ren; Chuang, Yao-Chung; Tsai, Nai-Wen; Chang, Chiung-Chih; Chang, Wen-Neng

    2011-01-01

    Incremental palmar stimulation of the median nerve sensory conduction at the wrist, the 'inching test', provides an assessment with reference to segments proximal and distal to the entrapment. This study used high-resolution ultrasonography (US) to measure the median nerve's cross-section areas (CSAs) like the 'inching test' and to correlate with the nerve conduction study (NCS) severity and duration of carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS). Two hundred and twelve (212) 'CTS-hands' from 135 CTS patients and 50 asymptomatic hands ('A-hands') from 25 control individuals were enrolled. The median nerve CSAs were measured at the 8-point marked as i4, i3, i2, i1, w, o1, o2, and 03 in inching test. The NCS severities were classified into six groups based on motor and sensory responses (i.e., negative, minimal, mild, moderate, severe, and extreme). Results of US studies were compared in terms of NCS severity and duration of clinical CTS symptoms. There was significantly larger CSA of the NCS negative group of 'CTS-hands' than of 'A-hands'. The cut-off values of the CSAs of the NCS negative CTS group were 12.5 mm 2 , 11.5 mm 2 and 10.1 mm 2 at the inlet, wrist crease, and outlet, respectively. Of the 212 'CTS-hands', 32 were NCS negative while 40 had minimal, 43 mild, 85 moderate, 10 severe, and two extreme NCS severities. The CSAs of 'CTS-hands' positively correlated with different NCS severities and with the duration of CTS symptoms. By duration of clinical symptoms, 12 of the 212 'CTS-hands' were in the 1 month group; 82 in >1 month and ≤12 months group, and 118 in >12 months group. In 'inching test', segments i4-i3 and i3-i2 were the most common 'positive-site'. The corresponding CSAs measured at i4 and i3, but not at i2, were significantly larger than those measured at points that were not 'positive-site'. Using the 8-point measurement of the median

  10. Spatial and temporal variability of rainfall and their effects on hydrological response in urban areas – a review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Cristiano

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available In urban areas, hydrological processes are characterized by high variability in space and time, making them sensitive to small-scale temporal and spatial rainfall variability. In the last decades new instruments, techniques, and methods have been developed to capture rainfall and hydrological processes at high resolution. Weather radars have been introduced to estimate high spatial and temporal rainfall variability. At the same time, new models have been proposed to reproduce hydrological response, based on small-scale representation of urban catchment spatial variability. Despite these efforts, interactions between rainfall variability, catchment heterogeneity, and hydrological response remain poorly understood. This paper presents a review of our current understanding of hydrological processes in urban environments as reported in the literature, focusing on their spatial and temporal variability aspects. We review recent findings on the effects of rainfall variability on hydrological response and identify gaps where knowledge needs to be further developed to improve our understanding of and capability to predict urban hydrological response.

  11. From rainfall to slope instability: an automatic GIS procedure for susceptibility analyses over wide areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bianca Federici

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The paper proposes an automatic procedure in geographic information system (GIS for the analysis and prediction of landslides due to rainfall events over wide areas. It runs, for each unit cell, a hydrological balance based on the Curve Number method (USDA-SCS 1985–1986, computing the evolution of groundwater as a result of precipitation and then checks the overcoming, or not, of limit equilibrium conditions of the land in the domain of interest. The mathematical model was implemented in the free and open source GIS GRASS. For any sequence of consecutive days of rain, according to the conditions of soil moisture prior to the time history under study, the hydro-geotechnical model allows (1 the determination of the oscillations of the phreatic table, (2 the part of saturated soil and (3 the slope stability analysis, by taking into proper account the pore pressures buildup. The results of this procedure are returned in raster format, allowing an easy and intuitive interpretation of the land mass sensitivity to meteoric actions. The suggested procedure was applied on an extensive kinematic phenomenon surrounding the city of Santo Stefano d’Aveto (Liguria, Italy. The realized maps of landslide susceptibility are in excellent agreement with what is evident on site.

  12. Identifying Areas of Potential Wetland Hydrology in Irrigated Croplands Using Aerial Image Interpretation and Analysis of Rainfall Normality

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-06-01

    16-6 5 signatures that can be detected on aerial images , including crop stress, areas of a cropped field that appear to be drowned out, areas not...with the majority of ERDC/EL TR-16-6 20 images collected during the dry season when cloudy days are infrequent and crops have been planted . As...Developing composite images can further assist with documentation. Analysis of rainfall normality can further refine the process , providing context

  13. [Response of sloping water erosion to rainfall and micro-earth pattern in the loess hilly area].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Wei; Jia, Fu-yan; Chen, Li-ding; Wu, Dong-ping; Chen, Jin

    2012-08-01

    Severe water erosion in the key loess hilly area is affected by the coupling role of rainfall and earth surface features. In this study, rainfall simulation techniques at the micro-plot scale (1.2 m x 1.2 m; 2 m x 1.2 m) was used as the basic measures, the relations between rainfall depth, intensity and runoff-erosion under different plant morphology features as well as micro-landscape positions were quantified and analyzed. Several key findings were captured. Firstly, rainfall depth and intensity both affected water erosion significantly, while the role of the rainfall intensity was more important than that of the depth. Secondly, a strong negative correlation was found between the antecedent soil moisture content and the generation timing of surface runoff, while water erosion had a positive relation with the antecedent soil moisture. Thirdly, different plant morphology and micro-landscape positions of shrub plant (seabuckthorn) played different roles leading to different rates of surface runoff and soil erosion. Dominated by a rainfall intensity ranging from 50 to 60 mm x h(-1), runoff coefficient in those micro-plots covered by seabuckthorn was about 5%-8%, and changed into 25%, 45% and 63% in grassland-plots, bared plots covered by biological-crust and bared plots without any coverage, respectively. Fourthly, the specific landscape position of seabuckthorn in the plots was also found to play a key role in affecting water erosion processes, and seabuckthorn at the lower landscape position, rather than the upper and middle position, played a better buffering role in reducing runoff and soil loss.

  14. Is rainfall erosivity influenced by climate change?. A case study in a Mediterranean Climate area of North East Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramos, Maria C.

    2014-05-01

    One of the main characteristics of the Mediterranean climate is the high intensity rainfall events usually recorded in autumn and spring. Those events usually concentrate a high percentage of annual rainfall. Different studies carried out in the Mediterranean countries suggest that notable changes in seasonal precipitation regimes have occurred during the second half of the 20th century. In addition, precipitation extremes seem to increase in association with global warming, which may favour erosion processes. Under this hypothesis one question arise: is the rainfall erosivity increasing influenced by climate change? In this work rainfall erosivity and its variability in the last two decades was analysed in an area located NE Spain, where erosion processes of high magnitude are recorded. The main land use in that area is grape vines, which due to the scarce soil cover is usually associated with the highest erosion rates. The study area was located in the Penedès depression (North East Spain). Hourly data from four observatories Els Hostalets de Pierola (UTM X: 400664, Y: 4598608m, elv: 326m ), La Granada ( X:393758; Y:4580393), Sant Martí Sarroca (X: 385556; Y:4581486, elv: 257m) and Font_Rubi (X: 385118, Y:4587935. elev: 415 m ) belonging to the period 1997-2013 were used in the analysis together with a tipping bucket rainfall series recorded at one minute intervals (10 years within the period 1996-2012). Rainfall erosivity was quantified by the index rainfall kinetic energy multiplied by the maximum intensity in 30minute periods (E*Imax30). The Imax30 was estimated from the relationship between hourly and 30 minute data obtained for the tipping bucket series using the Marquard algoritme. In order to analsye changes in rainfall erosivity, the annual and monthly number of erosive events were analysed for each observatory and in each year, the events were classified into intervals according to their erosivity. The intervals used were: 0-100; 100-200; 200-300; 300

  15. The water budget of heterogeneous areas : impact of soil and rainfall variability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kim, C.P.

    1995-01-01

    In this thesis the heterogeneity of the soil water budget components is investigated. Heterogeneity of soil hydraulic properties and rainfall rate are taken into account by using stochastic methods. The importance of lateral groundwater flow in causing heterogeneity of the water budget

  16. 8-inch IBM floppy disk

    CERN Multimedia

    1971-01-01

    The 8-inch floppy disk was a magnetic storage disk for the data introduced commercially by IBM in 1971. It was designed by an IBM team as an inexpensive way to load data into the IBM System / 370. Plus it was a read-only bare disk containing 80 KB of data. The first read-write version was introduced in 1972 by Memorex and could contain 175 KB on 50 tracks (with 8 sectors per track). Other improvements have led to various coatings and increased capacities. Finally, it was surpassed by the mini diskette of 5.25 inches introduced in 1976.

  17. A point-infiltration model for estimating runoff from rainfall on small basins in semiarid areas of Wyoming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rankl, James G.

    1990-01-01

    A physically based point-infiltration model was developed for computing infiltration of rainfall into soils and the resulting runoff from small basins in Wyoming. The user describes a 'design storm' in terms of average rainfall intensity and storm duration. Information required to compute runoff for the design storm by using the model include (1) soil type and description, and (2) two infiltration parameters and a surface-retention storage parameter. Parameter values are tabulated in the report. Rainfall and runoff data for three ephemeral-stream basins that contain only one type of soil were used to develop the model. Two assumptions were necessary: antecedent soil moisture is some long-term average, and storm rainfall is uniform in both time and space. The infiltration and surface-retention storage parameters were determined for the soil of each basin. Observed rainstorm and runoff data were used to develop a separation curve, or incipient-runoff curve, which distinguishes between runoff and nonrunoff rainfall data. The position of this curve defines the infiltration and surface-retention storage parameters. A procedure for applying the model to basins that contain more than one type of soil was developed using data from 7 of the 10 study basins. For these multiple-soil basins, the incipient-runoff curve defines the infiltration and retention-storage parameters for the soil having the highest runoff potential. Parameters were defined by ranking the soils according to their relative permeabilities and optimizing the position of the incipient-runoff curve by using measured runoff as a control for the fit. Analyses of runoff from multiple-soil basins indicate that the effective contributing area of runoff is less than the drainage area of the basin. In this study, the effective drainage area ranged from 41.6 to 71.1 percent of the total drainage area. Information on effective drainage area is useful in evaluating drainage area as an independent variable in

  18. The potential for hail and intense rainfall enhancement over urban areas: improving urban extreme weather risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ntelekos, A. A.; Smith, J. A.; Krajewski, W. F.; Foote, M.

    2009-04-01

    Urban communities and their infrastructure are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of organized thunderstorm systems. Current models of urban extreme weather risk do not fully represent the complexity of the hydrometeorological processes involved, particularly in relation to intense convective precipitation and severe weather. Hail is a severe thunderstorm hazard that can be extremely damaging to property (especially automobiles, buildings and agriculture) over and in proximity to urban environments. This study identifies some of the mechanisms that future generations of catastrophe models should consider incorporating in their representation of hydrometeorlogical hazards in urban areas. In addition, such information could help to inform planning policy and improve urban resilience to extreme events. Evidence is provided that urban environments, through the existence of high-rise buildings and densely build-up areas, but also through air-pollution (aerosols) can potentially lead to an enhancement of both flooding and hail. Conclusions are drawn from two separate studies over the heavily urbanized corridor of the northeastern United States but could be expanded to apply to other urban areas. Observational and modelling (Weather Research and Forecasting - WRF) analyses of an extreme thunderstorm over the Baltimore, Maryland metropolitan area on 7 July 2004 provided evidence that the urban canopy redistributed heavy rainfall and convergence centres in the vicinity of the urban environment. Modelling analyses suggest that convective rainfall around the urban core was increased by about 30% due to the heterogeneities of land surface processes associated with the city of Baltimore. Chesapeake Bay also played an important role in rainfall distribution by acting as a divergence zone for northerly winds. Cloud-to-ground lightning analyses show that the city of Baltimore and the Chesapeake Bay combined played a role in the distribution of lightning in the periphery of the

  19. Effects of rainfall and salinity increase on prevalence of vector mosquitoes in coastal areas of Alappuzha district, Kerala.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balasubramanian, R; Nikhil, T L

    2015-11-01

    Seasonal abundance patterns for Japanese encephalitis vectors along climatic variations were studied in the coastal areas of Alappuzha district from June 2012 to May 2013. A total of 10563 female mosquitoes belonging to eleven species were collected. Culex gelidusTheobald (50.04%), Cx. tritaeniorhynchus Giles (26.50%), and Cx. sitiens Wiedemann (7.55%) were found to be most common in these areas. Cx. sitiens females were collected from each sampling occasion from early monsoon season June to late summer May with a distinct peak in April at 7.18 electrical conductivity (EC). Cx. sitiens abundance increased rapidly when monthly salinity level consistently exceeded 7.76, occurring in March at 7.76 and April at 7.18 electrical conductivity (EC). While analyzing correlation of Cx. sitiens density with salinity and rainfall was significant. High density of Cx. gelidus was greatly influenced by total rainfall and it was found to be significantly correlated with Per Man Hour (PMH) (P areas may develop in to brackish and saline water populated by Cx. sitiens, which can be new vectors for Japanese encephalitis or West Nile virus in these areas.

  20. Simulation of runoff and recharge and estimation of constituent loads in runoff, Edwards aquifer recharge zone (outcrop) and catchment area, Bexar County, Texas, 1997-2000

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ockerman, Darwin J.

    2002-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey developed a watershed model (Hydrological Simulation Program—FORTRAN) to simulate runoff and recharge and to estimate constituent loads in surface-water runoff in the Edwards aquifer recharge zone (outcrop) and catchment area in Bexar County, Texas. Rainfall and runoff data collected during 1970–98 from four gaged basins in the outcrop and catchment area were used to calibrate and test the model. The calibration parameters were applied in simulations of the four calibration basins and six ungaged basins that compose the study area to obtain runoff and recharge volumes for 4 years, 1997–2000. In 1997, simulated runoff from the study area was 5.62 inches. Simulated recharge in the study area was 7.85 inches (20 percent of rainfall). In 1998, simulated runoff was 11.05 inches; simulated recharge was 10.99 inches (25 percent of rainfall). In 1999, simulated runoff was 0.66 inch; simulated recharge was 3.03 inches (19 percent of rainfall). In 2000, simulated runoff was 5.29 inches; simulated recharge was 7.19 inches (21 percent of rainfall). During 1997– 2000, direct infiltration of rainfall accounted for about 56 percent of the total Edwards aquifer recharge in Bexar County. Streamflow losses contributed about 37 percent of the recharge; flood impoundment contributed 7 percent. The simulated runoff volumes were used with event-mean-concentration data from basins in the study area and from other Bexar County basins to compute constituent loads and yields for various land uses. Annual loads for suspended solids, dissolved solids, dissolved nitrite plus nitrate nitrogen, and total lead were consistently largest from undeveloped land and smallest from commercial land or transportation corridors. Annual loads and yields varied with rainfall, with the maximum loads produced in the wettest year (1998) and the minimum loads produced in the driest year (1999).

  1. Numerical Simulation of the Topographical Change in Korea Mountain Area by Intense Rainfall and Consequential Debris Flow

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Byong-Hee Jun

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The objectives of this study are to simulate the topographical changes associated with rainfall and the consequential debris flow using terrestrial LiDAR (Light Detection And Ranging. Three rainfall events between July 9 and July 14, 2009, triggered a number of debris flows at Jecheon County in Korea. Rain fell at a rate of 64 mm/h, producing 400 mm of total accumulation during this period. Tank simulation model for SWI (Soil Water Index estimated the water stored beneath the ground and debris flow occurrence in study area. For the LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging survey, the terrestrial laser scanning system RIEGL LMS-Z390i consists of an accurate and fast 3D scanner, associated RTK GPS system. The DEM derived from LiDAR enabled the debris flow to be mapped and analyzed in great detail. The estimated affected area and erosion/deposition volumes by debris flow were compared with two-dimensional numerical simulation. The simulation results were sufficiently in good agreement with the debris flow track, and a success rate of over 90% was achieved with a simulation time of 300 s. A comparison of the simulated and surveyed results based on deposition volume yields a success rate of over 97% with 350 s of simulation time.

  2. Development of 52 inches last stage blade for steam turbines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suzuki, Atsuhide; Hisa, Shoichi; Nagao, Shinichiro; Ogata, Hisao

    1986-01-01

    The last stage blades of steam turbines are the important component controlling the power output and performance of plants. In order to realize a unit of large capacity and high efficiency, the proper exhaust area and the last stage blades having good performance are indispensable. Toshiba Corp. has completed the development of the 52 inch last stage blades for 1500 and 1800 rpm steam turbines. The 52 inch last stage blades are the longest in the world, which have the annular exhaust area nearly 1.5 times as much as that of 41 inch blades used for 1100 MW, 1500 rpm turbines in nuclear power stations. By adopting these 52 inch blades, the large capacity nuclear power plants up to 1800 MW can be economically constructed, the rate of heat consumption of 1350 MW plants is improved by 3 ∼ 4 % as compared with 41 inch blades, and in the plants up to 1100 MW, LP turbines can be reduced from three sets to two. The features of 52 inch blades, the flow pattern and blade form design, the structural strength analysis and the erosion withstanding property, and the verification by the rotation test of the actual blades, the performance test using a test turbine, the vibration analysis of the actually loaded blades and the analysis of wet steam behavior are reported. (Kako, I.)

  3. Rainfall and irrigation controls on groundwater rise and salinity risk in the Ord River Irrigation Area, northern Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Anthony J.

    2008-09-01

    Groundwater beneath the Ord River Irrigation Area (ORIA) in northern Australia has risen in elevation by 10-20 m during the past 40 years with attendant concerns about water logging and soil salinization. Persistent groundwater accession has been attributed to excessive irrigation and surface water leakage; however, analysis of daily water-table records from the past 10 years yielded a contrary result. On a seasonal basis, water-table elevation typically fell during irrigation (dry) seasons and rose during fallow (wet) seasons, conflicting with the conventional view that irrigation and not rainfall must be the dominant control on groundwater accession. Previous investigations of unexpectedly large infiltration losses through the cracking clay soils provide a plausible explanation for the apparent conundrum. Because rainfall is uncontrolled and occurs independently of the soil moisture condition, there is greater opportunity for incipient ponding and rapid infiltration through preferred flow pathways. In contrast, irrigation is scheduled when needed and applications are stopped after soil wetting is achieved. Contemporary groundwater management in the ORIA is focused on improving irrigation efficiency during dry seasons but additional opportunities may exist to improve groundwater conditions and salinity risk through giving equal attention to the wet-season water balance.

  4. The Coupling Effect of Rainfall and Reservoir Water Level Decline on the Baijiabao Landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nenghao Zhao

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Rainfall and reservoir level fluctuation are two of the main factors contributing to reservoir landslides. However, in China’s Three Gorges Reservoir Area, when the reservoir water level fluctuates significantly, it comes at a time of abundant rainfall, which makes it difficult to distinguish which factor dominates the deformation of the landslide. This study focuses on how rainfall and reservoir water level decline affect the seepage and displacement field of Baijiabao landslide spatially and temporally during drawdown of reservoir water level in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area, thus exploring its movement mechanism. The monitoring data of the landslide in the past 10 years were analyzed, and the correlation between rainfall, reservoir water level decline, and landslide displacement was clarified. By the numerical simulation method, the deformation evolution mechanism of this landslide during drawdown of reservoir water level was revealed, respectively, under three conditions, namely, rainfall, reservoir water level decline, and coupling of the above two conditions. The results showed that the deformation of the Baijiabao landslide was the coupling effect of rainfall and reservoir water level decline, while the latter effect is more pronounced.

  5. Ten inch Planar Optic Display

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beiser, L. [Beiser (Leo) Inc., Flushing, NY (United States); Veligdan, J. [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States)

    1996-04-01

    A Planar Optic Display (POD) is being built and tested for suitability as a high brightness replacement for the cathode ray tube, (CRT). The POD display technology utilizes a laminated optical waveguide structure which allows a projection type of display to be constructed in a thin (I to 2 inch) housing. Inherent in the optical waveguide is a black cladding matrix which gives the display a black appearance leading to very high contrast. A Digital Micromirror Device, (DMD) from Texas Instruments is used to create video images in conjunction with a 100 milliwatt green solid state laser. An anamorphic optical system is used to inject light into the POD to form a stigmatic image. In addition to the design of the POD screen, we discuss: image formation, image projection, and optical design constraints.

  6. 10-inch planar optic display

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beiser, Leo; Veligdan, James T.

    1996-05-01

    A planar optic display (POD) is being built and tested for suitability as a high brightness replacement for the cathode ray tube, (CRT). The POD display technology utilizes a laminated optical waveguide structure which allows a projection type of display to be constructed in a thin (1 to 2 inch) housing. Inherent in the optical waveguide is a black cladding matrix which gives the display a black appearance leading to very high contrast. A digital micromirror device, (DMD) from Texas Instruments is used to create video images in conjunction with a 100 milliwatt green solid state laser. An anamorphic optical system is used to inject light into the POD to form a stigmatic image. In addition to the design of the POD screen, we discuss: image formation, image projection, and optical design constraints.

  7. Urban Flooding Analysis Using Radar Rainfall Data and 2-D Hydrodynamic Model: A Pilot Study of Back Cover Area, Portland, Maine

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yan, Eugene [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Pierce, Julia [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Mahat, Vinod [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Jared, Alissa [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Collis, Scott [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Verner, Duane [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Wall, Thomas [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

    2016-11-01

    This project is a part of the Regional Resiliency Assessment Program, led by the Department of Homeland Security, to address flooding hazards of regional significance for Portland, Maine. The pilot study was performed by Argonne National Laboratory to identify differences in spatial rainfall distributions between the radar-derived and rain-gauge rainfall datasets and to evaluate their impacts on urban flooding. The flooding impact analysis utilized a high-resolution 2-dimensional (2-D) hydrodynamic model (15 ft by 15 ft) incorporating the buildings, streets, stream channels, hydraulic structures, an existing city storm drain system, and assuming a storm surge along the coast coincident with a heavy rainfall event. Two historical storm events from April 16, 2007, and September 29, 2015, were selected for evaluation. The radar-derived rainfall data at a 200-m resolution provide spatially-varied rainfall patterns with a wide range of intensities for each event. The resultant maximum flood depth using data from a single rain gauge within the study area could be off (either under- or over-estimated) by more than 10% in the 2007 storm and more than 60% in the 2015 storm compared to the radar-derived rainfall data. The model results also suggest that the inundation area with a flow depth at or greater than 0.5 ft could reach 11% (2007 storm) and 17% (2015 storm) of the total study area, respectively. The lowland areas within the neighborhoods of North Deering, East Deering, East and West Baysides and northeastern Parkside, appear to be more vulnerable to the flood hazard in both storm events. The high-resolution 2-D hydrodynamic model with high-resolution radar-derived rainfall data provides an excellent tool for detailed urban flood analysis and vulnerability assessment. The model developed in this study could be potentially used to evaluate any proposed mitigation measures and optimize their effects in the future for Portland, ME.

  8. Modelling approach for the rainfall erosivity index in sub-humid urban areas in northern Algeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Touaibia

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This work presents an approach for storm water erosivity index modelling in the absence of measurement in an urban area, in a sub-humid climate. In torrential storms, floods, loaded with sediments, obstruct storm water drainage. With the aim of estimating the amount of sediment that can be deposited on a stretch of road, adjacent to the study area, the erosivity index is determined from a count of 744 rain showers recorded over a period of 19 years. The Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE of Wischmeier and Smith is applied, where only the index of erosivity is calculated; it is based on the intensity of the rain starting the process of erosion in the basin. Functional relations are required between this factor and the explanatory variables. A power type regression model is reached, making it possible to bring a decision-making aid in absences of measurements.

  9. Methods to determine the impact of rainfall on fuels and burned area in southern African savannas

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Archibald, S

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available The re regime di ers across a gradient of human land use intensity. The pattern can be7 explained by the di erential e ect of humans on ignition frequencies and re spread: ignition8 frequency shows a unimodal distribution against population density... density is a better15 predictor of burnt area than re size.16 These results point to the substantial e ect that human activities can have on re in a17 system with high rural population densities and active re management. Not all aspects of18 a re...

  10. Applicability of satellite rainfall estimates for erosion studies in small offshore areas: a case study in Cape Verde Islands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Moreno, J.F.S.; Mannaerts, C.M.; Jetten, V.G.

    2014-01-01

    To assess the usability of satellite rainfall estimates for erosion studies in Cape Verde, the 3B42 and 3B43 products from TRMM, and the Multi-Sensor Precipitation Estimate MPE from Meteosat are compared to daily and monthly ground rainfall measured between 1998 and 2010. TRMM estimates from 1998

  11. Biogenic sulfur and the acidity of rainfall in remote areas of Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nriagu, J.O.; Holdway, D.A.; Coker, R.D.

    1987-01-01

    Sulfur released from any given natural or anthropogenic source carries an isotopic signature that can be used to trace its flow through the environment. Measurements of the concentration and isotopic composition of sulfur in weekly bulk precipitation samples collected over a 4-year period at a remote location in location in northern Ontario were recorded. The long-term isotopic data and the measurement on the production and release of dimethyl sulfide from boreal wetlands show that biogenic sources can account for up to 30% of the acidifying sulfur burden in the atmosphere in remote areas of Canada. The data suggest that significant biological reemission of anthropogenic sulfur is occurring. The role of this process in the continuing acidification of the environment for years to come must be a matter of concern

  12. Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Medium Scale for Rainfall-Induced Earthflows: Catakli Catchment Area (Cayeli, Rize, Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. A. Nefeslioglu

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the present study is to introduce a probabilistic approach to determine the components of the risk evaluation for rainfall-induced earthflows in medium scale. The Catakli catchment area (Cayeli, Rize, Turkey was selected as the application site of this study. The investigations were performed in four different stages: (i evaluation of the conditioning factors, (ii calculation of the probability of spatial occurrence, (iii calculation of the probability of the temporal occurrence, and (iv evaluation of the consequent risk. For the purpose, some basic concepts such as “Risk Cube”, “Risk Plane”, and “Risk Vector” were defined. Additionally, in order to assign the vulnerability to the terrain units being studied in medium scale, a new more robust and more objective equation was proposed. As a result, considering the concrete type of roads in the catchment area, the economic risks were estimated as 3.6×106€—in case the failures occur on the terrain units including element at risk, and 12.3×106€—in case the risks arise from surrounding terrain units. The risk assessments performed in medium scale considering the technique proposed in the present study will supply substantial economic contributions to the mitigation planning studies in the region.

  13. THE MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FALLEN IN SHORT PERIODS OF TIME IN THE HILLY AREA OF CLUJ COUNTY - GENESIS, DISTRIBUTION AND PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    BLAGA IRINA

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The maximum amounts of rainfall are usually characterized by high intensity, and their effects on the substrate are revealed, at slope level, by the deepening of the existing forms of torrential erosion and also by the formation of new ones, and by landslide processes. For the 1971-2000 period, for the weather stations in the hilly area of Cluj County: Cluj- Napoca, Dej, Huedin and Turda the highest values of rainfall amounts fallen in 24, 48 and 72 hours were analyzed and extracted, based on which the variation and the spatial and temporal distribution of the precipitation were analyzed. The annual probability of exceedance of maximum rainfall amounts fallen in short time intervals (24, 48 and 72 hours, based on thresholds and class values was determined, using climatological practices and the Hyfran program facilities.

  14. Effects of future rainfall patterns on density and diversity of predatory mites (Gamasida) in characteristic agricultural soils of the Pannonian area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wissuwa, Janet; Berthold, Helene; Bruckner, Alexander; Zaller, Johann; Hösch, Johannes; Baumgarten, Andreas

    2013-04-01

    Regional climate change scenarios for the end of this century predict fewer but heavier rainfalls and longer lasting droughts during the vegetation period without substantial changes in the total annual amount of rainfall for Eastern Austria (Pannonian region). In a multidisciplinary study, the consequences of future precipitation patterns on agroecosystem processes and functions in one of the most productive agricultural areas of Austria are tested at the AGES Lysimeter station. The lysimeter station comprises the three main soil types of the pannonian agricultural area (calcaric phaeozem, gleyic phaeozem, calcic chernozem) together covering about 80% of the agricultural area. Lysimeters are a valuable tool to study the effects of climate change on the complete soil ecosystem interacting with plants. Precipitation rates are modified according to the predicted 2050 scenario in comparison to the current precipitation patterns. The abundance and diversity of soil arthropods (Collembola, Gamasida, Oribatida) is monitored for three years. Five randomly taken soil samples per lysimeter (ø 5 cm, 10 cm depth) are pooled for arthropod extraction. Here we will present first year results for Gamasida. As one of the dominant acarine predators Gamasida play a crucial role in soil food webs contributing to nutrient cycling. Preliminary results indicate a stronger influence of soil type than rainfall patterns on mite density. Gamasida density decreased in the order calcaric phaeozem > calcic chernozem > gleyic phaeozem for every sampling date. No difference between current and predicted rainfall was found in May, where the different irrigation measures were launched, and July. Mite density tended to be higher for current rainfall in September.

  15. Nitrogen loss from karst area in China in recent 50 years: An in-situ simulated rainfall experiment's assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Xianwei; Gao, Yang; Green, Sophie M; Dungait, Jennifer A J; Peng, Tao; Quine, Timothy A; Xiong, Bailian; Wen, Xuefa; He, Nianpeng

    2017-12-01

    Karst topography covers more than 1/3 of the People's Republic of China in area. The porous, fissured, and soluble nature of the underlying karst bedrock (primarily dolomite and limestone) leads to the formation of underground drainage systems. Karst conduit networks dominate this system, and rainfall takes a crucial role on water cycle at China karst area. Nitrogen loss from the karst system is of particular concern, with regard to nutrient use efficiency as well as water quality, as much of the karst system, including steeply sloping terrain, is used for intensive agriculture. We use simulated rainfall experiments to determine the relationship between rainfall and nitrogen loss at typical karst slope land and then estimate nitrogen loss from the karst soil. The results show that both surface runoff and subsurface runoff have a significant linear correlation with rainfall at all studied sites. Subsurface runoff is larger than surface runoff at two karst sites, while the opposite is true at the non-karst site. Exponential function satisfactorily described the correlation between rainfall and nitrogen concentrations in runoff. Nitrates accounted for 60%-95% of the dissolved nitrogen loss (DN, an index of N-loss in this research). The estimated annual N-loss load varies between 1.05 and 1.67 Tg N/year in the whole karst regions of China from 1961 to 2014. Approximately, 90% of the N-loss load occurred during the wet season, and 90% of that passed through the subsurface. Understanding the processes and estimating N-loss is highly valuable in determining long-term soil security and sustainability in karst regions.

  16. Rainfall interception and distribution patterns of gross precipitation around an isolated Ficus benjamina tree in an urban area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guevara-Escobar, A.; González-Sosa, E.; Véliz-Chávez, C.; Ventura-Ramos, E.; Ramos-Salinas, M.

    2007-02-01

    SummaryInterception of rainfall by urban trees can be an important component of urban landscapes. This work evaluated rainfall interception and distribution patterns of gross precipitation around the canopy of a single evergreen tree Ficus benjamina (L.). Nineteen individual storms occurring from July to October, 2005, were analyzed. Total precipitation for the studied period was 152 mm representing 46% of the annual precipitation. Rainfall was partitioned as follows: 38.1% throughfall, 2.4% stemflow, and 59.5% interception by the tree canopy. Canopy saturation was estimated at 1.5 mm using a linear relationship between throughfall and stemflow. Average time for saturation of canopy was 19.5 min. The screen effect was important and accounted for 18.7% of the interception losses by the tree canopy alone. A kriging model was used to explore spatial distribution patterns of rainfall and the screen effect around the projected crown. The results indicated that the tree modifies the precipitation pattern around the tree and suggested that these patterns were similar among events.

  17. Seasonality in cholera dynamics: A rainfall-driven model explains the wide range of patterns in endemic areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baracchini, Theo; King, Aaron A.; Bouma, Menno J.; Rodó, Xavier; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Pascual, Mercedes

    2017-10-01

    Seasonal patterns in cholera dynamics exhibit pronounced variability across geographical regions, showing single or multiple peaks at different times of the year. Although multiple hypotheses related to local climate variables have been proposed, an understanding of this seasonal variation remains incomplete. The historical Bengal region, which encompasses the full range of cholera's seasonality observed worldwide, provides a unique opportunity to gain insights on underlying environmental drivers. Here, we propose a mechanistic, rainfall-temperature driven, stochastic epidemiological model which explicitly accounts for the fluctuations of the aquatic reservoir, and analyze with this model the historical dataset of cholera mortality in the Bengal region. Parameters are inferred with a recently developed sequential Monte Carlo method for likelihood maximization in partially observed Markov processes. Results indicate that the hydrological regime is a major driver of the seasonal dynamics of cholera. Rainfall tends to buffer the propagation of the disease in wet regions due to the longer residence times of water in the environment and an associated dilution effect, whereas it enhances cholera resurgence in dry regions. Moreover, the dynamics of the environmental water reservoir determine whether the seasonality is unimodal or bimodal, as well as its phase relative to the monsoon. Thus, the full range of seasonal patterns can be explained based solely on the local variation of rainfall and temperature. Given the close connection between cholera seasonality and environmental conditions, a deeper understanding of the underlying mechanisms would allow the better management and planning of public health policies with respect to climate variability and climate change.

  18. Intake of 238U and 232Th through the consumption of foodstuffs by tribal populations practicing slash and burn agriculture in an extremely high rainfall area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jha, S.K.; Gothankar, S.; Iongwai, P.S.; Kharbuli, B.; War, S.A.; Puranik, V.D.

    2012-01-01

    The concentration of naturally occurring radionuclides 232 Th, 238 U was determined using Instrumental Neutron Activation Analysis (INAA) in different food groups namely cereals, vegetables, leafy vegetables, roots and tubers cultivated and consumed by tribal population residing around the proposed uranium mine. The study area is a part of rural area K. P. Mawthabah (Domiasiat) in the west Khasi Hills District of Meghalaya, India located in the tropical region of high rainfall that remains steeped in tribal tradition without much outside influence. Agriculture by Jhum (slash and burn) cultivation and animal husbandry are the main occupation of the tribal populations. A total of 89 samples from locally grown food products were analyzed. The concentration of 238 U and 232 Th in the soil of the study area was found to vary 1.6–15.5 and 2.0–5.0 times respectively to the average mean value observed in India. The estimated daily dietary intake of 238 U and 232 Th were 2.0 μg d −1 (25 mBq d −1 ) and 3.4 μg d −1 (14 mBq d −1 ) is comparable with reported range 0.5–5.0 μg d −1 and 0.15–3.5 μg d −1 respectively for the Asian population. - Highlights: ► 232 Th, 238 U were determined using Instrumental Neutron Activation Analysis (INAA). ► Study area located in the tropical region of high rainfall that remains steeped in tribal tradition. ► Agriculture by Jhum (slash and burn) cultivation and animal husbandry are the main occupation of the tribal populations. ► The estimated daily intake of 232 Th and 238 U in high rainfall area was found to be 3.4 and 2.0 μg respectively.

  19. Research on the Characteristics and Mechanism of the Cumulative Release of Antimony from an Antimony Smelting Slag Stacking Area under Rainfall Leaching

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Yingying; Deng, Renjian

    2017-01-01

    We aimed to study the characteristics and the mechanism of the cumulative release of antimony at an antimony smelting slag stacking area in southern China. A series of dynamic and static leaching experiments to simulate the effects of rainfall were carried out. The results showed that the release of antimony from smelting slag increased with a decrease in the solid-liquid ratio, and the maximum accumulated release was found to be 42.13 mg Sb/kg waste and 34.26 mg Sb/kg waste with a solid/liquid ratio of 1 : 20; the maximum amount of antimony was released within 149–420 μm size fraction with 7.09 mg/L of the cumulative leaching. Also, the antimony release was the greatest and most rapid at pH 7.0 with the minimum release found at pH 4.0. With an increase in rainfall duration, the antimony release increased. The influence of variation in rainfall intensity on the release of antimony from smelting slag was small. PMID:28804669

  20. Spatial Variability of Rainfall

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, N.E.; Pedersen, Lisbeth

    2005-01-01

    As a part of a Local Area Weather Radar (LAWR) calibration exercise 15 km south of Århus, Denmark, the variability in accumulated rainfall within a single radar pixel (500 by 500 m) was measured using nine high-resolution rain gauges. The measured values indicate up to a 100% variation between...

  1. Effect of Different Mulches under Rainfall Concentration System on Corn Production in the Semi-arid Areas of the Loess Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Xiaolong; Zhang, Peng; Chen, Xiaoli; Guo, Jingjing; Jia, Zhikuan

    2016-01-01

    The ridge and furrow farming system for rainfall concentration (RC) has gradually been popularized to improve the water availability for crops and to increase the water use efficiency (WUE), thereby stabilizing high yields. In the RC system, plastic-covered ridges are rainfall harvesting zones and furrows are planting zones. In this study, we optimized the mulching patterns for RC planting to mitigate the risks of drought during crop production in semi-arid agricultural areas. We conducted a four-year field study to determine the effects on corn production of mulching with 0.08-mm plastic film, maize straw, 8% biodegradable film, liquid film, bare furrow, and conventional flat (CF) farming. We found that RC significantly increased (P > 0.05) the soil moisture storage in the top 0-100 cm layer and the topsoil temperature (0-10 cm) during the corn-growing season. Combining RC with mulching further improved the rain-harvesting, moisture-retaining, and yield-increasing effects in furrows. Compared with CF, the four-year average yield increased by 1497.1 kg ha-1 to 2937.3 kg ha-1 using RC with mulch treatments and the WUE increased by 2.3 kg ha-1 mm-1 to 5.1 kg ha-1 mm-1.

  2. Rainfall and evapotranspiration data for southwest Medina County, Texas, August 2006-December 2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slattery, Richard N.; Asquith, William H.; Ockerman, Darwin J.

    2011-01-01

    During August 2006-December 2009, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Fort Worth District, collected rainfall and evapotranspiration data to help characterize the hydrology of the Nueces River Basin, Texas. The USGS installed and operated a station to collect continuous (30-minute interval) rainfall and evapotranspiration data in southwest Medina County approximately 14 miles southwest of D'Hanis, Texas, and 23 miles northwest of Pearsall, Texas. Rainfall data were collected by using an 8-inch tipping bucket raingage. Meteorological and surface-energy flux data used to calculate evapotranspiration were collected by using an extended Open Path Eddy Covariance system from Campbell Scientific, Inc. Data recorded by the system were used to calculate evapotranspiration by using the eddy covariance and Bowen ratio closure methods and to analyze the surface energy budget closure. During August 2006-December 2009 (excluding days of missing record), measured rainfall totaled 86.85 inches. In 2007, 2008, and 2009, annual rainfall totaled 40.98, 12.35, and 27.15 inches, respectively. The largest monthly rainfall total, 12.30 inches, occurred in July 2007. During August 2006-December 2009, evapotranspiration calculated by using the eddy covariance method totaled 69.91 inches. Annual evapotranspiration calculated by using the eddy covariance method totaled 34.62 inches in 2007, 15.24 inches in 2008, and 15.57 inches in 2009. During August 2006-December 2009, evapotranspiration calculated by using the Bowen ratio closure method (the more refined of the two datasets) totaled 68.33 inches. Annual evapotranspiration calculated by using the Bowen ratio closure method totaled 32.49, 15.54, and 15.80 inches in 2007, 2008, and 2009, respectively (excluding days of missing record).

  3. Rainfall statistics changes in Sicily

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Arnone

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Changes in rainfall characteristics are one of the most relevant signs of current climate alterations. Many studies have demonstrated an increase in rainfall intensity and a reduction of frequency in several areas of the world, including Mediterranean areas. Rainfall characteristics may be crucial for vegetation patterns formation and evolution in Mediterranean ecosystems, with important implications, for example, in vegetation water stress or coexistence and competition dynamics. At the same time, characteristics of extreme rainfall events are fundamental for the estimation of flood peaks and quantiles that can be used in many hydrological applications, such as design of the most common hydraulic structures, or planning and management of flood-prone areas. In the past, Sicily has been screened for several signals of possible climate change. Annual, seasonal and monthly rainfall data in the entire Sicilian region have been analyzed, showing a global reduction of total annual rainfall. Moreover, annual maximum rainfall series for different durations have been rarely analyzed in order to detect the presence of trends. Results indicated that for short durations, historical series generally exhibit increasing trends, while for longer durations the trends are mainly negative. Starting from these premises, the aim of this study is to investigate and quantify changes in rainfall statistics in Sicily, during the second half of the last century. Time series of about 60 stations over the region have been processed and screened by using the nonparametric Mann–Kendall test. In particular, extreme events have been analyzed using annual maximum rainfall series at 1, 3, 6, 12 and 24 h duration, while daily rainfall properties have been analyzed in terms of frequency and intensity, also characterizing seasonal rainfall features. Results of extreme events analysis confirmed an increasing trend for rainfall of short durations, especially for 1 h rainfall

  4. Development of a low-budget, remote, solar powered, and self-operating rain gauge for spatial rainfall real time data monitoring in pristine and urban areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shafiei Shiva, J.; Chandler, D. G.; Nucera, K. J.; Valinski, N.

    2016-12-01

    Precipitation is one of the main components of the hydrological cycle and simulations and it is generally stated as an average value for the study area. However, due to high spatial variability of precipitation in some situations, more precise local data is required. In order to acquire the precipitation data, interpolation of neighbor gauged precipitation data is used which is the most affordable technique for a watershed scale study. Moreover, novel spatial rain measurements such as Doppler radars and satellite image processing have been widely used in recent studies. Although, due to impediments in the radar data processing and the effect of the local setting on the accuracy of the interpolated data, the local measurement of the precipitation remains as one of the most reliable approaches in attaining rain data. In this regard, development of a low-budget, remote, solar powered, and self-operating rain gauge for spatial rainfall real time data monitoring for pristine and urban areas has been presented in this research. The proposed rain gauge consists of two main parts: (a) hydraulic instruments and (b) electrical devices. The hydraulic instruments will collect the rain fall and store it in a PVC container which is connected to the high sensitivity pressure transducer systems. These electrical devices will transmit the data via cellphone networks which will be available for further analysis in less than one minute, after processing. The above-mentioned real time rain fall data can be employed in the precipitation measurement and the evaporation estimation. Due to the installed solar panel for battery recharging and designed siphon system for draining cumulative rain, this device is considered as a self-operating rain gauge. At this time, more than ten rain gauges are built and installed in the urban area of Syracuse, NY. Furthermore, these data are also useful for calibration and validation of data obtained by other rain gauging devices and estimation techniques

  5. Relationships between Tropical Rainfall Events and Regional Annual Rainfall Anomalies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Painter, C.; Varble, A.; Zipser, E. J.

    2016-12-01

    Regional annual precipitation anomalies strongly impact the health of regional ecosystems, water resources, agriculture, and the probability of flood and drought conditions. Individual event characteristics, including rain rate, areal coverage, and stratiform fraction are also crucial in considering large-scale impacts on these resources. Therefore, forecasting individual event characteristics is important and could potentially be improved through correlation with longer and better predicted timescale environmental variables such as annual rainfall. This study examines twelve years of retrieved rainfall characteristics from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite at a 5° x 5° resolution between 35°N and 35°S, as a function of annual rainfall anomaly derived from Global Precipitation Climatology Project data. Rainfall event characteristics are derived at a system scale from the University of Utah TRMM Precipitation Features database and at a 5-km pixel scale from TRMM 2A25 products. For each 5° x 5° grid box and year, relationships between these characteristics and annual rainfall anomaly are derived. Additionally, years are separated into wet and dry groups for each grid box and are compared versus one another. Convective and stratiform rain rates, along with system area and volumetric rainfall, generally increase during wetter years, and this increase is most prominent over oceans. This is in agreement with recent studies suggesting that convective systems become larger and rainier when regional annual rainfall increases or when the climate warms. Over some land regions, on the other hand, system rain rate, volumetric rainfall, and area actually decrease as annual rainfall increases. Therefore, land and ocean regions generally exhibit different relationships. In agreement with recent studies of extreme rainfall in a changing climate, the largest and rainiest systems increase in relative size and intensity compared to average systems, and do

  6. Heterogeneity of Dutch rainfall

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Witter, J.V.

    1984-01-01

    Rainfall data for the Netherlands have been used in this study to investigate aspects of heterogeneity of rainfall, in particular local differences in rainfall levels, time trends in rainfall, and local differences in rainfall trend. The possible effect of urbanization and industrialization on the

  7. Weather forecast performances for complex orographic areas: Impact of different grid resolutions and of geographic data on heavy rainfall event simulations in Sicily

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caccamo, M. T.; Castorina, G.; Colombo, F.; Insinga, V.; Maiorana, E.; Magazù, S.

    2017-12-01

    Over the past decades, Sicily has undergone an increasing sequence of extreme weather events that have produced, besides huge damages to both environment and territory, the death of hundreds of people together with the evacuation of thousands of residents, which have permanently lost their properties. In this framework, with this paper we have investigated the impact of different grid spacing and geographic data on the performance of forecasts over complex orographic areas. In order to test the validity of this approach we have analyzed and discussed, as case study, the heavy rainfall occurred in Sicily during the night of October 10, 2015. In just 9 h, a Mediterranean depression, centered on the Tunisian coastline, produced a violent mesoscale storm localized on the Peloritani Mountains with a maximum rain accumulation of about 200 mm. The results of these simulations were obtained using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) Model, version 3.7.1, at different grid spacing values and the Two Way Nesting procedure with a sub-domain centered on the area of interest. The results highlighted that providing correct and timely forecasts of extreme weather events is a challenge that could have been efficiently and effectively countered using proper employment of high spatial resolution models.

  8. Analysis of rainfall intensities using very dense network measurements and radar information for the Brno area during the period 2003-2009

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Salek, Milan; Stepanek, Petr; Zahradnicek, Pavel [Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Brno (Czech Republic)

    2012-02-15

    This study presents a data quality control and spatial analysis of maximum precipitation sums of various durations for the area of the city of Brno, using a dense network of automatic gauge stations and radar information. The measurements of 18 stations in the area of Brno, Czech Republic were established for the purposes of better management of the city sewerage system. Before evaluation of the measurements, quality control was executed on the daily, hourly and 15-minute precipitation sums. All suspicious data were compared with radar measurements and erroneous input data were removed. From this quality controlled data, the maxima of precipitation sums for durations of 5, 10, 15 and 60 minutes were calculated for the given time frames (months, seasons and years) and were spatially analyzed. The role of spatial precipitation estimates using weather radar data for hourly rainfall accumulations has been investigated as well. It is revealed that radar measurements show rather little improvement of the areal precipitation estimates when such a dense gauge network is available in real time, but it would be hard to replace radar measurements by any other source of data for successful quality control of the rain-gauge data, especially in summer months. (orig.)

  9. Pattern Analysis of El Nino and La Nina Phenomenon Based on Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and Rainfall Intensity using Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) in West Java Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prasetyo, Yudo; Nabilah, Farras

    2017-12-01

    Climate change occurs in 1998-2016 brings significant alteration in the earth surface. It is affects an extremely anomaly temperature such as El Nino and La Nina or mostly known as ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation). West Java is one of the regions in Indonesia that encounters the impact of this phenomenon. Climate change due to ENSO also affects food production and other commodities. In this research, processing data method is conducted using programming language to process SST data and rainfall data from 1998 to 2016. The data are sea surface temperature from NOAA satellite, SST Reynolds (Sea Surface Temperature) and daily rainfall temperature from TRMM satellite. Data examination is done using analysis of rainfall spatial pattern and sea surface temperature (SST) where is affected by El Nino and La Nina phenomenon. This research results distribution map of SST and rainfall for each season to find out the impacts of El Nino and La Nina around West Java. El Nino and La Nina in Java Sea are occurring every August to February. During El Nino, sea surface temperature is between 27°C - 28°C with average temperature on 27.71°C. Rainfall intensity is 1.0 mm/day – 2.0 mm/day and the average are 1.63 mm/day. During La Nina, sea surface temperature is between 29°C - 30°C with average temperature on 29.06°C. Rainfall intensity is 9.0 mm/day - 10 mm/day, and the average is 9.74 mm/day. The correlation between rainfall and SST is 0,413 which is expresses a fairly strong correlation between parameters. The conclusion is, during La Nina SST and rainfall increase. While during El Nino SST and rainfall decrease. Hopefully this research could be a guideline to plan disaster mitigation in West Java region that is related extreme climate change.

  10. Reconstruction of rainfall events responsible for landslides using an algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melillo, Massimo; Brunetti, Maria Teresa; Gariano, Stefano Luigi; Guzzetti, Fausto; Peruccacci, Silvia

    2014-05-01

    definition of rainfall conditions responsible for landslides in different geographic areas, reducing the current subjectivity inherent in the manual treatment of the rainfall and landslide data.

  11. Changes in rainfall thresholds for debris flow initiation and run-out on a local and regional scale in the Wenchuan earthquake area, SW China

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Asch, Th.W.J.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304839558; Quan Luna, B.; Tang, C.; van Westen, A.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/068876572; Alkema, D.; Fan, X.

    2013-01-01

    For the development of early warning systems for the initiation and run-out distances of debris flows, to avoid or mitigate intolerable risks, it is necessary to assess rainfall thresholds. However one must be aware that these thresholds can change. These changes can be ascribed to environmental and

  12. Rainfall erosivity in Central Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonilla, Carlos A.; Vidal, Karim L.

    2011-11-01

    SummaryOne of the most widely used indicators of potential water erosion risk is the rainfall-runoff erosivity factor ( R) of the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE). R is traditionally determined by calculating a long-term average of the annual sum of the product of a storm's kinetic energy ( E) and its maximum 30-min intensity ( I30), known as the EI30. The original method used to calculate EI30 requires pluviograph records for at most 30-min time intervals. Such high resolution data is difficult to obtain in many parts of the world, and processing it is laborious and time-consuming. In Chile, even though there is a well-distributed rain gauge network, there is no systematic characterization of the territory in terms of rainfall erosivity. This study presents a rainfall erosivity map for most of the cultivated land in the country. R values were calculated by the prescribed method for 16 stations with continuous graphical record rain gauges in Central Chile. The stations were distributed along 800 km (north-south), and spanned a precipitation gradient of 140-2200 mm yr -1. More than 270 years of data were used, and 5400 storms were analyzed. Additionally, 241 spatially distributed R values were generated by using an empirical procedure based on annual rainfall. Point estimates generated by both methods were interpolated by using kriging to create a map of rainfall erosivity for Central Chile. The results show that the empirical procedure used in this study predicted the annual rainfall erosivity well (model efficiency = 0.88). Also, an increment in the rainfall erosivities was found as a result of the rainfall depths, a regional feature determined by elevation and increasing with latitude from north to south. R values in the study area range from 90 MJ mm ha -1 h -1 yr -1 in the north up to 7375 MJ mm ha -1 h -1 yr -1 in the southern area, at the foothills of the Andes Mountains. Although the map and the estimates could be improved in the future by

  13. Constraining relationships between rainfall and landsliding with satellite derived rainfall measurements and landslide inventories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marc, Odin; Malet, Jean-Philippe; Stumpf, Andre; Gosset, Marielle

    2017-04-01

    In mountainous and hilly regions, landslides are an important source of damage and fatalities. Landsliding correlates with extreme rainfall events and may increase with climate change. Still, how precipitation drives landsliding at regional scales is poorly understood quantitatively in part because constraining simultaneously landsliding and rainfall across large areas is challenging. By combining optical images acquired from satellite observation platforms and rainfall measurements from satellite constellations we are building a database of landslide events caused by with single storm events. We present results from storm-induced landslides from Brazil, Taiwan, Micronesia, Central America, Europe and the USA. We present scaling laws between rainfall metrics derived by satellites (total rainfall, mean intensity, antecedent rainfall, ...) and statistical descriptors of landslide events (total area and volume, size distribution, mean runout, ...). Total rainfall seems to be the most important parameter driving non-linearly the increase in total landslide number, and area and volume. The maximum size of bedrock landslides correlates with the total number of landslides, and thus with total rainfall, within the limits of available topographic relief. In contrast, the power-law scaling exponent of the size distribution, controlling the relative abundance of small and large landslides, appears rather independent of the rainfall metrics (intensity, duration and total rainfall). These scaling laws seem to explain both the intra-storm pattern of landsliding, at the scale of satellite rainfall measurements ( 25kmx25km), and the different impacts observed for various storms. Where possible, we evaluate the limits of standard rainfall products (TRMM, GPM, GSMaP) by comparing them to in-situ data. Then we discuss how slope distribution and other geomorphic factors (lithology, soil presence,...) modulate these scaling laws. Such scaling laws at the basin scale and based only on a

  14. Nevada Test 1999 Waste Management Monitoring Report, Area 3 and Area 5 radioactive waste management sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yvonne Townsend

    2000-01-01

    Environmental monitoring data were collected at and around the Area 3 and Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Sites (RWMSs) at the Nevada Test Site (NTS). These monitoring data include radiation exposure, air, groundwater, meteorology, vadose zone, and biota data. Although some of these media (radiation exposure, air, and groundwater) are reported in detail in other Bechtel Nevada reports (Annual Site Environmental Report [ASER], the National Emissions Standard for Hazardous Air Pollutants [NESHAP] report, and the Annual Groundwater Monitoring Report), they are also summarized in this report to provide an overall evaluation of RWMS performance and environmental compliance. Direct radiation monitoring data indicate that exposure at and around the RWMSs is not above background levels. Air monitoring data indicate that tritium concentrations are slightly above background levels, whereas radon concentrations are not above background levels. Groundwater monitoring data indicate that the groundwater in the alluvial aquifer beneath the Area 5 RWMS has not been affected by the facility. Meteorology data indicate that 1999 was a dry year: rainfall totaled 3.9 inches at the Area 3 RWMS (61 percent of average) and 3.8 inches at the Area 5 RWMS (75 percent of average). Vadose zone monitoring data indicate that 1999 rainfall infiltrated less than one foot before being returned to the atmosphere by evaporation. Soil-gas tritium data indicate very slow migration, and tritium concentrations in biota were insignificant. All 1999 monitoring data indicate that the Area 3 and Area 5 RWMSs are performing as expected at isolating buried waste

  15. The Six-Inch Lunar Atlas A Pocket Field Guide

    CERN Document Server

    Spain, Don

    2009-01-01

    The Six-Inch Lunar Atlas has been designed specifically for use in the field by lunar observers so it’s perfect for fitting into an observer’s pocket! The author’s own lunar photographs were taken with a 6-inch (150mm) telescope and CCD camera, and closely match the visual appearance of the Moon when viewed through 3-inch to 8-inch telescopes. Each picture is shown oriented "as the Moon really is" when viewed from the northern hemisphere, and is supplemented by exquisite computer sketches that list the main features. Two separate computer sketches are provided to go with each photograph, one oriented to appear as seen through an SCT telescope (e.g. the Meade and Celestron ranges), the other oriented for Newtonian and refracting telescopes. Observers using the various types telescopes will find it extremely helpful to identify lunar features as the human brain is very poor at making "mirror-image" visual translations.

  16. Aerosol Research Branch (ARB) 48 inch Lidar Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The ARB_48_IN_LIDAR data set contains data collected from a 48-inch lidar system located at NASA Langley Research Center. Each granule consists of one year of data....

  17. Rainfall and Development of Zika Virus

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2017-11-01

    Nov 1, 2017 ... between rainfall and incidence of arbovirus disease such as dengue is well demonstrated (2). For Zika virus an infection, a similar observation can be expected. A recent report from Thailand can also show the expected pattern of the prevalence of Zika virus infection in the areas with high rainfall (3).

  18. modelling relationship between rainfall variability and yields

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    yield models should be used for planning and forecasting the yield of millet and sorghum in the study area. Key words: modelling, rainfall, yields, millet, sorghum. INTRODUCTION. Meteorological variables, such as rainfall parameters, temperature, sunshine hours, relative humidity, and wind velocity and soil moisture are.

  19. 16 CFR 500.19 - Conversion of SI metric quantities to inch/pound quantities and inch/pound quantities to SI...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    .../pound quantities and inch/pound quantities to SI metric quantities. 500.19 Section 500.19 Commercial... LABELING ACT § 500.19 Conversion of SI metric quantities to inch/pound quantities and inch/pound quantities to SI metric quantities. (a) For calculating the conversion of SI metric quantities to inch/pound...

  20. Risk assessment of K Basin twelve-inch and four-inch drain valve failure from a postulated seismic initiating event

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    MORGAN, R.G.

    1999-06-23

    The Spent Nuclear Fuel (SNF) Project will transfer metallic SNF from the Hanford 105 K-East and 105 K-West Basins to safe interim storage in the Canister Storage Building in the 200 Area. The initial basis for design, fabrication, installation, and operation of the fuel removal systems was that the basin leak rate which could result from a postulated accident condition would not be excessive relative to reasonable recovery operations. However, an additional potential K Basin water leak path is through the K Basin drain valves. Three twelve-inch drain valves are located in the main basin bays along the north wall. Five four-inch drain valves are located in the north and south loadout pits (NLOP and SLOP), the weasel pit, the technical viewing pit, and the discharge chute pit. The sumps containing the valves are filled with concrete which covers the drain valve body. Visual observations indicate that only the valve's bonnet and stem are exposed above the basin concrete floor for the twelve-inch drain valve and that much less of the valve's bonnet and stem are exposed above the basin concrete floor for the five four-inch drain valves. It was recognized, however, that damage of the drain valve bonnet or stem during a seismic initiating event could provide a potential K Basin water leak path. The objectives of this analysis are to: (1) evaluate the likelihood of damaging the three twelve-inch drain valves located along the north wall of the main basin and the five four-inch drain valves located in the pits from a seismic initiating event, and (2) determine the likelihood of exceeding a specific consequence (initial leak rate) from a damaged valve. The analysis process is a risk-based uncertainty analysis where each variable is modeled using available information and engineering judgement. The uncertainty associated with each variable is represented by a probability distribution (probability density function). Uncertainty exists because of the inherent

  1. Rainfall-Runoff Parameters Uncertainity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heidari, A.; Saghafian, B.; Maknoon, R.

    2003-04-01

    Karkheh river basin, located in southwest of Iran, drains an area of over 40000 km2 and is considered a flood active basin. A flood forecasting system is under development for the basin, which consists of a rainfall-runoff model, a river routing model, a reservior simulation model, and a real time data gathering and processing module. SCS, Clark synthetic unit hydrograph, and Modclark methods are the main subbasin rainfall-runoff transformation options included in the rainfall-runoff model. Infiltration schemes, such as exponentioal and SCS-CN methods, account for infiltration losses. Simulation of snow melt is based on degree day approach. River flood routing is performed by FLDWAV model based on one-dimensional full dynamic equation. Calibration and validation of the rainfall-runoff model on Karkheh subbasins are ongoing while the river routing model awaits cross section surveys.Real time hydrometeological data are collected by a telemetry network. The telemetry network is equipped with automatic sensors and INMARSAT-C comunication system. A geographic information system (GIS) stores and manages the spatial data while a database holds the hydroclimatological historical and updated time series. Rainfall runoff parameters uncertainty is analyzed by Monte Carlo and GLUE approaches.

  2. Darfur: rainfall and conflict

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kevane, Michael; Gray, Leslie

    2008-01-01

    Data on rainfall patterns only weakly corroborate the claim that climate change explains the Darfur conflict that began in 2003 and has claimed more than 200 000 lives and displaced more than two million persons. Rainfall in Darfur did not decline significantly in the years prior to the eruption of major conflict in 2003; rainfall exhibited a flat trend in the thirty years preceding the conflict (1972-2002). The rainfall evidence suggests instead a break around 1971. Rainfall is basically stationary over the pre- and post-1971 sub-periods. The break is larger for the more northerly rainfall stations, and is less noticeable for En Nahud. Rainfall in Darfur did indeed decline, but the decline happened over 30 years before the conflict erupted. Preliminary analysis suggests little merit to the proposition that a structural break several decades earlier is a reasonable predictor of the outbreak of large-scale civil conflict in Africa

  3. Extreme Rainfall In A City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nkemdirim, Lawrence

    Cities contain many structures and activities that are vulnerable to severe weather. Heavy precipitation cause floods which can damage structures, compromise transportation and water supply systems, and slow down economic and social activities. Rain induced flood patterns in cities must be well understood to enable effective placement of flood control and other regulatory measures. The planning goal is not to eliminate all floods but to reduce their frequency and resulting damage. Possible approaches to such planning include probability based extreme event analysis. Precipitation is normally the most variable hydrologic element over a given area. This variability results from the distribution of clouds and in cloud processes in the atmosphere, the storm path, and the distribution of topographical features on the ground along path. Some studies suggest that point rainfall patterns are also affected by urban industrial effects hence some agreement that cities are wetter than the country surrounding them. However, there are still questions regarding the intra- urban distribution of precipitation. The sealed surfaces, urban structures, and the urban heat anomaly increase convection in cities which may enhance the generation of clouds. Increased dust and gaseous aerosols loads are effective condensation and sublimation nuclei which may also enhance the generation of precipitation. Based on these associations, the greatest amount of convection type rainfall should occur at city center. A study of summer rainfall in Calgary showed that frequencies of trace amounts of rainfall and events under 0.2mm are highest downtown than elsewhere. For amounts greater than than 0.2 mm, downtown sites were not favored. The most compelling evidence for urban-industrial precipitation enhancement came from the Metromex project around St. Loius, Missouri where maximum increases of between 5 to 30 per cent in summer rainfall downwind of the city was linked to urbanization and

  4. Behaviour of {sup 210}Po in fresh water ecosystem located in high rainfall area around proposed uranium mining site in India

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jha, S.K. [Environmental Radioactivity measurement Section, Health Physics Division, Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Mumbai-400085 (India)

    2014-07-01

    Several naturally occurring alpha or beta emitting radionuclides such as {sup 238}U, {sup 226}Ra, {sup 210}Pb, {sup 228}Ra and others are frequently dissolved in water supplies and their concentrations vary over an extremely wide range, mainly depending upon the amount of radio elements present in bedrock and soil with which the water comes in contact. In Meghalaya, Kylleng-Pyndensohiong, Mawthabah (KP Mawthabah Domiasiat) in West Khasi Hills District and adjoining region receives highest rainfall, and is situated near a proposed uranium mineralization zone, therefore these regions can be considered as potential sources of naturally occurring radionuclides of uranium series to the biosphere via different media. The population of the region depends mainly on different surface water sources for drinking water and also for agricultural purposes. Under these conditions some Po can be allochthonous i.e. coming with rainwater as water supply comes from the naturally formed small storage basin between the rocks which accumulate rainwater. Apart from cultivation, the occupation of the local tribal people is production of wood charcoal. This leads to excess deforestation, escalating the erosion of soil exposing the uranium bearing rock at some places, may enhance the natural radioactivity levels in nearby water bodies. The physico chemical parameter, Fe, Mn, gross alpha and {sup 210}Po activities were estimated for radiological assessment of surface water quality and behavior of {sup 210}Po. The measurement of {sup 210}Po was carried out using the {sup 208}Po tracers. A tracer recovery of 85% was observed in the case of biological samples. Recovery in the range of 90% to 95% was observed in the case of water sample. The {sup 210}Po concentration ranged from 10 to 64 mBq L{sup -1}. The lowest concentrations of {sup 210}Po were detected in water samples from Wakhaji (10±0.03) and the highest concentration of {sup 210}Po was observed in the water bodies of Nongtynger (64±0

  5. Hydrologic response in karstic-ridge wetlands to rainfall and evapotranspiration, central Florida, 2001-2003

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knowles, Leel; Phelps, G.G.; Kinnaman, Sandra L.; German, Edward R.

    2005-01-01

    Two internally drained karstic wetlands in central Florida-Boggy Marsh at the Hilochee Wildlife Management Area and a large unnamed wetland at the Lyonia Preserve-were studied during 2001-03 to gain a better understanding of the net-recharge function that these wetlands provide, the significance of exchanges with ground water with regard to wetland water budgets, and the variability in wetland hydrologic response to a range of climate conditions. These natural, relatively remote and unaltered wetlands were selected to provide a baseline of natural wetland hydrologic variability to which anthropogenic influences on wetland hydrology could be compared. Large departures from normal rainfall during the study were fortuitous, and allowed monitoring of hydrologic processes over a wide range of climate conditions. Wetland responses varied greatly as a result of climate conditions that ranged from moderate drought to extremely moist. Anthropogenic activities influenced water levels at both study sites; however, because these activities were brief relative to the duration of the study, sufficient data were collected during unimpacted periods to allow for the following conclusions to be made. Water budgets developed for Boggy Marsh and the Lyonia large wetland showed strong similarity between the flux terms of rainfall, evaporation, net change in storage, and the net ground-water exchange residual. Runoff was assumed to be negligible. Of the total annual flux at Boggy Marsh, rainfall accounted for 45 percent; evaporation accounted for 25 percent; net change in storage accounted for 25 percent; and the net residual accounted for 5 percent. At the Lyonia large wetland, rainfall accounted for 44 percent; evaporation accounted for 29 percent; net change in storage accounted for 21 percent; and the net residual accounted for 6 percent of the total annual flux. Wetland storage and ground-water exchange were important when compared to the total water budget at both wetlands. Even

  6. The Effects of Amazon Deforestation on Rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Starr, David OC. (Technical Monitor); Negri, Andrew J.; Adler, Robert F.; Surratt, Jason

    2002-01-01

    This study begins with the hypothesis that heavily deforested regions will experience increased surface heating, leading to local circulations that will ultimately enhance the rainfall, or at least, change the pattern of diurnal evolution of rainfall. This would be an important finding because several modeling studies have concluded that widespread deforestation would lead to decreased rainfall. Towards that end rain estimates from a combined GOES infrared/TRMM microwave technique were analyzed with respect to percent forest cover from Landsat data (courtesy of TRFIC at Michigan State University) and GOES visible channel data over a deforested area in Rondonia (southwest Brazil). Five 1" x 1" areas of varying forest cover were examined during the onset of the wet season in Amazonia (Aug-Sept), when the effects of the surface would not be dominated by large-scale synoptic weather patterns. Preliminary results revealed that: maximum rainfall fell in most deforested area; heavily forested areas received the least rainfall; cumulus cloud development initiated at borders; the amplitude of the diurnal cycle of precipitation was a function of th surface cover. Further work will be presented detailing effects of land surface cover on the GOES infrared-measured surface heating, GOES visible observed cumulus development, thunderstorm initiation based on the location of temperature minima in the infrared data, and estimated rainfall and its diurnal cycle from a combined GOES/TRMM technique. Rainfall estimates derived from non-geosynchronous microwave observations (i.e. Goddard Profiling Algorithm, GPROF) will also be examined.

  7. Weather radar rainfall data in urban hydrology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren; Einfalt, Thomas; Willems, Patrick

    2017-01-01

    Application of weather radar data in urban hydrological applications has evolved significantly during the past decade as an alternative to traditional rainfall observations with rain gauges. Advances in radar hardware, data processing, numerical models, and emerging fields within urban hydrology...... necessitate an updated review of the state of the art in such radar rainfall data and applications. Three key areas with significant advances over the past decade have been identified: (1) temporal and spatial resolution of rainfall data required for different types of hydrological applications, (2) rainfall...... estimation, radar data adjustment and data quality, and (3) nowcasting of radar rainfall and real-time applications. Based on these three fields of research, the paper provides recommendations based on an updated overview of shortcomings, gains, and novel developments in relation to urban hydrological...

  8. Topographic relationships for design rainfalls over Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, F.; Hutchinson, M. F.; The, C.; Beesley, C.; Green, J.

    2016-02-01

    Design rainfall statistics are the primary inputs used to assess flood risk across river catchments. These statistics normally take the form of Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves that are derived from extreme value probability distributions fitted to observed daily, and sub-daily, rainfall data. The design rainfall relationships are often required for catchments where there are limited rainfall records, particularly catchments in remote areas with high topographic relief and hence some form of interpolation is required to provide estimates in these areas. This paper assesses the topographic dependence of rainfall extremes by using elevation-dependent thin plate smoothing splines to interpolate the mean annual maximum rainfall, for periods from one to seven days, across Australia. The analyses confirm the important impact of topography in explaining the spatial patterns of these extreme rainfall statistics. Continent-wide residual and cross validation statistics are used to demonstrate the 100-fold impact of elevation in relation to horizontal coordinates in explaining the spatial patterns, consistent with previous rainfall scaling studies and observational evidence. The impact of the complexity of the fitted spline surfaces, as defined by the number of knots, and the impact of applying variance stabilising transformations to the data, were also assessed. It was found that a relatively large number of 3570 knots, suitably chosen from 8619 gauge locations, was required to minimise the summary error statistics. Square root and log data transformations were found to deliver marginally superior continent-wide cross validation statistics, in comparison to applying no data transformation, but detailed assessments of residuals in complex high rainfall regions with high topographic relief showed that no data transformation gave superior performance in these regions. These results are consistent with the understanding that in areas with modest topographic relief, as

  9. Temporal and elevation trends in rainfall erosivity on a 149 km2 watershed in a semi-arid region of the American Southwest

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark A. Nearing

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Temporal changes in rainfall erosivity can be expected to occur with changing climate, and because rainfall amounts are known to be in part of a function of elevation, erosivity can be expected to be influenced by elevation as well. This is particularly true in mountainous regions such as are found over much of the western United States. The objective of this study was to identify temporal and elevation trends in rainfall erosivity on a 149 km2 (58 miles2 watershed in a semi-arid region of southeastern Arizona. Data from 84 rain gages for the years 1960–2012 at elevations ranging from 1231 to 1644 m (4038–5394 ft were used in the analyses. The average annual erosivity over the watershed as a whole was 1104 MJ mm ha−1 h−1 yr−1 (65 hundreds of foot ton inch acre−1 h−1 yr−1, and ranged from approximately 950 to 1225 MJ mm ha−1 h−1 yr−1 (56–72 hundreds of foot ton inch acre−1 h−1 yr−1, with a statistical trend showing greater erosivity at the higher elevations. No statistically significant temporal changes in annual or summer erosivities were found. This result stands in contrast to recent modeling studies of runoff and erosion in the area based on downscaled GCM information that project significant levels of erosivity changes over coming decades. These results are consistent with known orographic rainfall effects, but contrast with recent studies that presented projections of significant trends of increasing erosivity in the future based on downscaled GCM outputs for the area. The results illustrate the need for testing and developing improved techniques to evaluate future erosion scenarios for purposes of making targeted soil conservation decisions.

  10. Rainfall Variability of South East Queensland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Louise; Manton, Michael; Siems, Steven

    2010-05-01

    The seasonal weather of southeastern Queensland (SEQ) is commonly described by a wet and a dry season. Rainfall in this area has been declining for the past fifty years and climate projections indicate decreasing trends in annual rainfall and increases in temperature. These factors combined with population growth suggest a need for Queensland to re-evaluate its water management. In order to understand the rainfall variability of SEQ, it is useful to consider the impact of the different weather patterns or synoptic regimes on the regional rainfall. Previous studies have examined the synoptic patterns associated with extreme wind and rainfall events in SEQ and the correlation between rainfall in northern Queensland and atmospheric variables, but a comprehensive climatology for the SEQ region is missing. Analysis of routine soundings is found to reveal relationships between surface precipitation and atmospheric structure. Cluster analysis was performed on daily radiosonde data for Brisbane Airport spanning the period 01/01/1990-11/11/2009. The clustering was initially performed on seven atmospheric variables: total-totals, 850mb winds, wind shear between 850mb and 500mb, moisture flux and total water calculated from the sounding data. A sensitivity study reveals that the moisture flux parameters followed by total water and total-totals are the key variables in determining the regimes. The clusters were combined with daily rainfall records spanning the period 01/01/1995 - 01/06/2008 to determine the contribution of each regime to monthly rainfall. The seven-cluster case describes three separate southeasterly regimes, three westerly regimes and an easterly regime. The contribution of each regime to annual rainfall was also determined. The regimes for SEQ can be divided into ‘wet' and ‘dry' cases. It is apparent that the rainfall is largely limited to the coastal strip, with maxima near regions with steep terrain. The main rainfall period is from November through to

  11. Rainfall simulation in education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters, Piet; Baartman, Jantiene; Gooren, Harm; Keesstra, Saskia

    2016-04-01

    Rainfall simulation has become an important method for the assessment of soil erosion and soil hydrological processes. For students, rainfall simulation offers an year-round, attractive and active way of experiencing water erosion, while not being dependent on (outdoors) weather conditions. Moreover, using rainfall simulation devices, they can play around with different conditions, including rainfall duration, intensity, soil type, soil cover, soil and water conservation measures, etc. and evaluate their effect on erosion and sediment transport. Rainfall simulators differ in design and scale. At Wageningen University, both BSc and MSc student of the curriculum 'International Land and Water Management' work with different types of rainfall simulation devices in three courses: - A mini rainfall simulator (0.0625m2) is used in the BSc level course 'Introduction to Land Degradation and Remediation'. Groups of students take the mini rainfall simulator with them to a nearby field location and test it for different soil types, varying from clay to more sandy, slope angles and vegetation or litter cover. The groups decide among themselves which factors they want to test and they compare their results and discuss advantage and disadvantage of the mini-rainfall simulator. - A medium sized rainfall simulator (0.238 m2) is used in the MSc level course 'Sustainable Land and Water Management', which is a field practical in Eastern Spain. In this course, a group of students has to develop their own research project and design their field measurement campaign using the transportable rainfall simulator. - Wageningen University has its own large rainfall simulation laboratory, in which a 15 m2 rainfall simulation facility is available for research. In the BSc level course 'Land and Water Engineering' Student groups will build slopes in the rainfall simulator in specially prepared containers. Aim is to experience the behaviour of different soil types or slope angles when (heavy) rain

  12. Trends analysis of rainfall and rainfall extremes in Sarawak, Malaysia using modified Mann-Kendall test

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sa'adi, Zulfaqar; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Ismail, Tarmizi; Chung, Eun-Sung; Wang, Xiao-Jun

    2017-11-01

    This study assesses the spatial pattern of changes in rainfall extremes of Sarawak in recent years (1980-2014). The Mann-Kendall (MK) test along with modified Mann-Kendall (m-MK) test, which can discriminate multi-scale variability of unidirectional trend, was used to analyze the changes at 31 stations. Taking account of the scaling effect through eliminating the effect of autocorrelation, m-MK was employed to discriminate multi-scale variability of the unidirectional trends of the annual rainfall in Sarawak. It can confirm the significance of the MK test. The annual rainfall trend from MK test showed significant changes at 95% confidence level at five stations. The seasonal trends from MK test indicate an increasing rate of rainfall during the Northeast monsoon and a decreasing trend during the Southwest monsoon in some region of Sarawak. However, the m-MK test detected an increasing trend in annual rainfall only at one station and no significant trend in seasonal rainfall at any stations. The significant increasing trends of the 1-h maximum rainfall from the MK test are detected mainly at the stations located in the urban area giving concern to the occurrence of the flash flood. On the other hand, the m-MK test detected no significant trend in 1- and 3-h maximum rainfalls at any location. On the contrary, it detected significant trends in 6- and 72-h maximum rainfalls at a station located in the Lower Rajang basin area which is an extensive low-lying agricultural area and prone to stagnant flood. These results indicate that the trends in rainfall and rainfall extremes reported in Malaysia and surrounding region should be verified with m-MK test as most of the trends may result from scaling effect.

  13. Hydrologic conditions and water quality in an agricultural area in Kleberg and Nueces Counties, Texas, 1996-98

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ockerman, Darwin J.; Petri, Brian L.

    2001-01-01

    During 1996?98, rainfall and runoff were monitored on a 49,680-acre agricultural watershed in Kleberg and Nueces Counties in South Texas. Nineteen rainfall samples were analyzed for selected nutrients, and runoff samples from 29 storms were analyzed for major ions, nutrients, and pesticides. Loads of nutrients in rainfall and loads of nutrients and pesticides in runoff were computed. For a 40,540-acre part of the watershed (lower study area), constituent loads entering the watershed in rainfall, in runoff from the upper study area, and from agricultural chemical applications to the lower study area were compared with runoff loads exiting the lower study area. Total rainfall for 1996?98 averaged 25.86 inches per year, which is less than the long-term annual average rainfall of 29.80 inches for the area. Rainfall and runoff during 1996?98 were typical of historical patterns, with periods of below average rainfall and runoff interspersed with extreme events. Five individual storms accounted for about 38 percent of the total rainfall and 94 percent of the total runoff. During the 3-year study, the total nitrogen runoff yield from the lower study area was 1.3 pounds per acre per year, compared with 49 pounds per acre per year applied as fertilizer and 3.1 pounds per acre per year from rainfall. While almost all of the fertilizer and rainfall nitrogen was ammonia and nitrate, most of the nitrogen in runoff was particulate organic nitrogen, associated with crop residue. Total nitrogen exiting the lower study area in surface-water runoff was about 2.5 percent of the nitrogen inputs (fertilizer and rainfall nitrogen). Annual deposition of total nitrogen entering the lower study area in rainfall exceeded net yields of total nitrogen exiting the watershed in runoff because most of the rainfall does not contribute to runoff. During the study, the total phosphorus runoff yield from the lower study area was 0.48 pound per acre per year compared with 4.2 pounds per acre per year

  14. Nanomanipulation of 2 inch wafer fabrication of vertically aligned carbon nanotube arrays by nanoimprint lithography

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bu, Ian Y. Y.; Eichhorn, Volkmar; Carlson, Kenneth

    2011-01-01

    Carbon nanotube (CNT) arrays are typically defined by electron beam lithography (EBL), and hence limited to small areas due to the low throughput. To obtain wafer‐scale fabrication we propose large area thermal nanoimprint lithography (NIL). A 2‐inch stamp master is defined using EBL for subsequent......, efficient production of wafer‐scale/larger arrays of CNTs has been achieved. The CNTs have been deposited by wafer‐scale plasma enhanced chemical vapour deposition (PECVD) of C2H2/NH3. Substrates containing such nanotubes have been used to automate nanorobotic manipulation sequences of individual CNTs...

  15. Impact of climate change on extreme rainfall events and flood risk in ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    2016-08-26

    Aug 26, 2016 ... The occurrence of exceptionally heavy rainfall events and associated flash floods in many areas during recent years motivate us to study long-term changes in extreme rainfall over India. The analysis of the frequency of rainy days, rain days and heavy rainfall days as well as one-day extreme rainfall and ...

  16. An all-timescales rainfall probability distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papalexiou, S. M.; Koutsoyiannis, D.

    2009-04-01

    The selection of a probability distribution for rainfall intensity at many different timescales simultaneously is of primary interest and importance as typically the hydraulic design strongly depends on the rainfall model choice. It is well known that the rainfall distribution may have a long tail, is highly skewed at fine timescales and tends to normality as the timescale increases. This behaviour, explained by the maximum entropy principle (and for large timescales also by the central limit theorem), indicates that the construction of a "universal" probability distribution, capable to adequately describe the rainfall in all timescales, is a difficult task. A search in hydrological literature confirms this argument, as many different distributions have been proposed as appropriate models for different timescales or even for the same timescale, such as Normal, Skew-Normal, two- and three-parameter Log-Normal, Log-Normal mixtures, Generalized Logistic, Pearson Type III, Log-Pearson Type III, Wakeby, Generalized Pareto, Weibull, three- and four-parameter Kappa distribution, and many more. Here we study a single flexible four-parameter distribution for rainfall intensity (the JH distribution) and derive its basic statistics. This distribution incorporates as special cases many other well known distributions, and is capable of describing rainfall in a great range of timescales. Furthermore, we demonstrate the excellent fitting performance of the distribution in various rainfall samples from different areas and for timescales varying from sub-hourly to annual.

  17. Spatial variability of extreme rainfall at radar subpixel scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peleg, Nadav; Marra, Francesco; Fatichi, Simone; Paschalis, Athanasios; Molnar, Peter; Burlando, Paolo

    2018-01-01

    Extreme rainfall is quantified in engineering practice using Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves (IDF) that are traditionally derived from rain-gauges and more recently also from remote sensing instruments, such as weather radars. These instruments measure rainfall at different spatial scales: rain-gauge samples rainfall at the point scale while weather radar averages precipitation on a relatively large area, generally around 1 km2. As such, a radar derived IDF curve is representative of the mean areal rainfall over a given radar pixel and neglects the within-pixel rainfall variability. In this study, we quantify subpixel variability of extreme rainfall by using a novel space-time rainfall generator (STREAP model) that downscales in space the rainfall within a given radar pixel. The study was conducted using a unique radar data record (23 years) and a very dense rain-gauge network in the Eastern Mediterranean area (northern Israel). Radar-IDF curves, together with an ensemble of point-based IDF curves representing the radar subpixel extreme rainfall variability, were developed fitting Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions to annual rainfall maxima. It was found that the mean areal extreme rainfall derived from the radar underestimate most of the extreme values computed for point locations within the radar pixel (on average, ∼70%). The subpixel variability of rainfall extreme was found to increase with longer return periods and shorter durations (e.g. from a maximum variability of 10% for a return period of 2 years and a duration of 4 h to 30% for 50 years return period and 20 min duration). For the longer return periods, a considerable enhancement of extreme rainfall variability was found when stochastic (natural) climate variability was taken into account. Bounding the range of the subpixel extreme rainfall derived from radar-IDF can be of major importance for different applications that require very local estimates of rainfall extremes.

  18. Seasonality in cholera dynamics : a rainfall-driven model explains the wide range of patterns of an infectious disease in endemic areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baracchini, Theo; Pascual, Mercedes; King, Aaron A.; Bouma, Menno J.; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Rinaldo, Andrea

    2015-04-01

    An explanation for the spatial variability of seasonal cholera patterns has remained an unresolved problem in tropical medicine te{pascual_2002}. Previous studies addressing the role of climate drivers in disease dynamics have focused on interannual variability and modelled seasonality as given te{king_nature}. Explanations for seasonality have relied on complex environmental interactions that vary with spatial location (involving regional hydrological models te{bertuzzo_2012}, river discharge, sea surface temperature, and plankton blooms). Thus, no simple and unified theory based on local climate variables has been formulated te{emch_2008}, leaving our understanding of seasonal variations of cholera outbreaks in different regions of the world incomplete. Through the analysis of a unique historical dataset containing 50 years of monthly meteorological, demographic and epidemiological records, we propose a mechanistic, SIR-based stochastic model for the population dynamics of cholera driven by local rainfall and temperature that is able to capture the full range of seasonal patterns in this large estuarine region, which encompasses the variety of patterns worldwide. Parameter inference was implemented via new statistical methods that allow the computation of maximum-likelihood estimates for partially observed Markov processes through sequential Monte-Carlo te{ionides_2011}. Such a model may provide a unprecedented opportunity to gain insights on the conditions and factors responsible for endemicity around the globe, and therefore, to also revise our understanding of the ecology of Vibrio cholerae. Results indicate that the hydrological regime is a decisive driver determining the seasonal dynamics of cholera. It was found that rainfall and longer water residence times tend to buffer the propagation of the disease in wet regions due to a dilution effect, while also enhancing cholera incidence in dry regions. This indicates that overall water levels matter and appear

  19. Implementing a spinosad-based local bait station to control Bactrocera cucurbitae (Diptera: Tephritidae) in high rainfall areas of Reunion Island.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delpoux, Camille; Deguine, Jean-Philippe

    2015-01-01

    Three species of fruit flies cause serious damage to cucurbit crops on Reunion Island: Bactrocera cucurbitae (Diptera: Tephritidae) (Coquillett 1899), Dacus ciliatus (Loew 1901), and Dacus demmerezi (Bezzi 1917). To control them, a program of agroecological management of cucurbit flies has been implemented based on the application of Synéis-appât, especially spot sprays on corn borders. However, the high rainfall on Reunion Island limits the long-term efficiency of the bait; in addition, this method cannot be used for large chayote trellises, because corn borders cannot be planted around them. The aim of this study was to design a bait station adapted to prevailing conditions on Reunion Island. An 'umbrella trap' tested in Taiwan was used as a reference to compare its efficacy with our local bait station. Experiments were conducted in field cages on B. cucurbitae to test different characteristics of bait stations and to construct one using local materials. Results were validated in the field. The attractiveness of the bait station was related mainly to the color of the external surface, yellow being the most attractive color. The efficacy of the bait station with respect to fly mortality was found to be linked to the accessibility of the bait, and direct application of Synéis-appât on the bait station was found to be the most efficient. In the field, B. cucurbitae were more attracted to the local bait station than to the umbrella trap, while the two other fly species displayed equal attraction to both trap types. Our local bait station is a useful alternative to spot sprays of Synéis-appât and is now included in a local pest management program and is well accepted by farmers. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Entomological Society of America.

  20. Implementing a Spinosad-Based Local Bait Station to Control Bactrocera cucurbitae (Diptera: Tephritidae) in High Rainfall Areas of Reunion Island

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delpoux, Camille; Deguine, Jean-Philippe

    2015-01-01

    Three species of fruit flies cause serious damage to cucurbit crops on Reunion Island: Bactrocera cucurbitae (Diptera: Tephritidae) (Coquillett 1899), Dacus ciliatus (Loew 1901), and Dacus demmerezi (Bezzi 1917). To control them, a program of agroecological management of cucurbit flies has been implemented based on the application of Synéis-appât, especially spot sprays on corn borders. However, the high rainfall on Reunion Island limits the long-term efficiency of the bait; in addition, this method cannot be used for large chayote trellises, because corn borders cannot be planted around them. The aim of this study was to design a bait station adapted to prevailing conditions on Reunion Island. An ‘umbrella trap’ tested in Taiwan was used as a reference to compare its efficacy with our local bait station. Experiments were conducted in field cages on B. cucurbitae to test different characteristics of bait stations and to construct one using local materials. Results were validated in the field. The attractiveness of the bait station was related mainly to the color of the external surface, yellow being the most attractive color. The efficacy of the bait station with respect to fly mortality was found to be linked to the accessibility of the bait, and direct application of Synéis-appât on the bait station was found to be the most efficient. In the field, B. cucurbitae were more attracted to the local bait station than to the umbrella trap, while the two other fly species displayed equal attraction to both trap types. Our local bait station is a useful alternative to spot sprays of Synéis-appât and is now included in a local pest management program and is well accepted by farmers. PMID:25688089

  1. Weather radar rainfall data in urban hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorndahl, Søren; Einfalt, Thomas; Willems, Patrick; Ellerbæk Nielsen, Jesper; ten Veldhuis, Marie-Claire; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Rasmussen, Michael R.; Molnar, Peter

    2017-03-01

    Application of weather radar data in urban hydrological applications has evolved significantly during the past decade as an alternative to traditional rainfall observations with rain gauges. Advances in radar hardware, data processing, numerical models, and emerging fields within urban hydrology necessitate an updated review of the state of the art in such radar rainfall data and applications. Three key areas with significant advances over the past decade have been identified: (1) temporal and spatial resolution of rainfall data required for different types of hydrological applications, (2) rainfall estimation, radar data adjustment and data quality, and (3) nowcasting of radar rainfall and real-time applications. Based on these three fields of research, the paper provides recommendations based on an updated overview of shortcomings, gains, and novel developments in relation to urban hydrological applications. The paper also reviews how the focus in urban hydrology research has shifted over the last decade to fields such as climate change impacts, resilience of urban areas to hydrological extremes, and online prediction/warning systems. It is discussed how radar rainfall data can add value to the aforementioned emerging fields in current and future applications, but also to the analysis of integrated water systems.

  2. STOCHASTIC GENERATION OF THE OCCURRENCE AND AMOUNT OF DAILY RAINFALL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M Al Baqui Barkotulla

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Rainfall is the main source of irrigation water in the northwest part of Bangladesh where the inhabitants derive their income primarily from farming. Stochastic rainfall models were concerned with the occurrence of wet day and depth of rainfall. The first order Markov chain model was used to simulate the sequence of rainfall occurrence using the method of transitional probability matrices, while daily rainfall amount was generated using a gamma distribution. The model parameters were estimated from historical rainfall records. The shape and scale parameters were estimated by moment method and hence it became possible to find the parameter values at the study area and then to generate synthetic sequences according to the gamma distribution. The parameters necessary for the whole generation include the means, variance or standard deviation and conditional probabilities of wet and dry days. Results obtained showed that the model could be used to generate rainfall data satisfactorily.

  3. Rainfall erosivity: An historical review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rainfall erosivity is the capability of rainfall to cause soil loss from hillslopes by water. Modern definitions of rainfall erosivity began with the development of the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE), where rainfall characteristics were statistically related to soil loss from thousands of plot...

  4. Improving the understanding of rainfall distribution and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2016-10-04

    Oct 4, 2016 ... deep ravines (Scott et al., 2000; Briggs, 2008). The Cathedral. Peak research catchments fall within the summer rainfall region of South Africa, thus the area experiences wet, humid summers and cold, dry winters (Everson et al., 1998).The mean annual precipitation (MAP) for the area is approximately 1 400 ...

  5. Production of medical radioisotopes in ORNL 86-Inch Cyclotron

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skidmore, M.R.

    1975-01-01

    Procedures, targets, and costs are discussed for the production of iodine-123 at the ORNL 86-Inch Cyclotron. The cyclotron is a fixed frequency machine producing 22-MeV proton beams with currents of 3 mA. Flat plate targets are used in the bombardment of readily fabricated metals when highest production rates are necessary, while capsule targets are used when flat plate coatings are difficult or when high production rates are not required. Window targets with metal foils or powders, inorganic compounds, or isotopically enriched materials are also used. (PMA)

  6. Accuracy of rainfall measurement for scales of hydrological interest

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. J. Wood

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available The dense network of 49 raingauges over the 135 km2 Brue catchment in Somerset, England is used to examine the accuracy of rainfall estimates obtained from raingauges and from weather radar. Methods for data quality control and classification of precipitation types are first described. A super-dense network comprising eight gauges within a 2 km grid square is employed to obtain a 'true value' of rainfall against which the 2 km radar grid and a single 'typical gauge' estimate can be compared. Accuracy is assessed as a function of rainfall intensity, for different periods of time-integration (15 minutes, 1 hour and 1 day and for two 8-gauge networks in areas of low and high relief. In a similar way, the catchment gauge network is used to provide the 'true catchment rainfall' and the accuracy of a radar estimate (an area-weighted average of radar pixel values and a single 'typical gauge' estimate of catchment rainfall evaluated as a function of rainfall intensity. A single gauge gives a standard error of estimate for rainfall in a 2 km square and over the catchment of 33% and 65% respectively, at rain rates of 4 mm in 15 minutes. Radar data at 2 km resolution give corresponding errors of 50% and 55%. This illustrates the benefit of using radar when estimating catchment scale rainfall. A companion paper (Wood et al., 2000 considers the accuracy of rainfall estimates obtained using raingauge and radar in combination. Keywords: rainfall, accuracy, raingauge, radar

  7. Rainfall thresholds for possible landslide occurrence in Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peruccacci, Silvia; Brunetti, Maria Teresa; Gariano, Stefano Luigi; Melillo, Massimo; Rossi, Mauro; Guzzetti, Fausto

    2017-08-01

    The large physiographic variability and the abundance of landslide and rainfall data make Italy an ideal site to investigate variations in the rainfall conditions that can result in rainfall-induced landslides. We used landslide information obtained from multiple sources and rainfall data captured by 2228 rain gauges to build a catalogue of 2309 rainfall events with - mostly shallow - landslides in Italy between January 1996 and February 2014. For each rainfall event with landslides, we reconstructed the rainfall history that presumably caused the slope failure, and we determined the corresponding rainfall duration D (in hours) and cumulated event rainfall E (in mm). Adopting a power law threshold model, we determined cumulated event rainfall-rainfall duration (ED) thresholds, at 5% exceedance probability, and their uncertainty. We defined a new national threshold for Italy, and 26 regional thresholds for environmental subdivisions based on topography, lithology, land-use, land cover, climate, and meteorology, and we used the thresholds to study the variations of the rainfall conditions that can result in landslides in different environments, in Italy. We found that the national and the environmental thresholds cover a small part of the possible DE domain. The finding supports the use of empirical rainfall thresholds for landslide forecasting in Italy, but poses an empirical limitation to the possibility of defining thresholds for small geographical areas. We observed differences between some of the thresholds. With increasing mean annual precipitation (MAP), the thresholds become higher and steeper, indicating that more rainfall is needed to trigger landslides where the MAP is high than where it is low. This suggests that the landscape adjusts to the regional meteorological conditions. We also observed that the thresholds are higher for stronger rocks, and that forested areas require more rainfall than agricultural areas to initiate landslides. Finally, we

  8. Rainfall erosivity in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panagos, Panos; Ballabio, Cristiano; Borrelli, Pasquale; Meusburger, Katrin; Klik, Andreas; Rousseva, Svetla; Tadić, Melita Perčec; Michaelides, Silas; Hrabalíková, Michaela; Olsen, Preben; Aalto, Juha; Lakatos, Mónika; Rymszewicz, Anna; Dumitrescu, Alexandru; Beguería, Santiago; Alewell, Christine

    2015-04-01

    Rainfall is one the main drivers of soil erosion. The erosive force of rainfall is expressed as rainfall erosivity. Rainfall erosivity considers the rainfall amount and intensity, and is most commonly expressed as the R-factor in the USLE model and its revised version, RUSLE. At national and continental levels, the scarce availability of data obliges soil erosion modellers to estimate this factor based on rainfall data with only low temporal resolution (daily, monthly, annual averages). The purpose of this study is to assess rainfall erosivity in Europe in the form of the RUSLE R-factor, based on the best available datasets. Data have been collected from 1541 precipitation stations in all European Union (EU) Member States and Switzerland, with temporal resolutions of 5 to 60 min. The R-factor values calculated from precipitation data of different temporal resolutions were normalised to R-factor values with temporal resolutions of 30 min using linear regression functions. Precipitation time series ranged from a minimum of 5 years to a maximum of 40 years. The average time series per precipitation station is around 17.1 years, the most datasets including the first decade of the 21st century. Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) has been used to interpolate the R-factor station values to a European rainfall erosivity map at 1 km resolution. The covariates used for the R-factor interpolation were climatic data (total precipitation, seasonal precipitation, precipitation of driest/wettest months, average temperature), elevation and latitude/longitude. The mean R-factor for the EU plus Switzerland is 722 MJ mm ha(-1) h(-1) yr(-1), with the highest values (>1000 MJ mm ha(-1) h(-1) yr(-1)) in the Mediterranean and alpine regions and the lowest (<500 MJ mm ha(-1) h(-1) yr(-1)) in the Nordic countries. The erosivity density (erosivity normalised to annual precipitation amounts) was also the highest in Mediterranean regions which implies high risk for erosive events and floods

  9. Relating rainfall characteristics to cloud top temperatures at different scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein, Cornelia; Belušić, Danijel; Taylor, Christopher

    2017-04-01

    Extreme rainfall from mesoscale convective systems (MCS) poses a threat to lives and livelihoods of the West African population through increasingly frequent devastating flooding and loss of crops. However, despite the significant impact of such extreme events, the dominant processes favouring their occurrence are still under debate. In the data-sparse West African region, rainfall radar data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) gives invaluable information on the distribution and frequency of extreme rainfall. The TRMM 2A25 product provides a 15-year dataset of snapshots of surface rainfall from 2-4 overpasses per day. Whilst this sampling captures the overall rainfall characteristics, it is neither long nor frequent enough to diagnose changes in MCS properties, which may be linked to the trend towards rainfall intensification in the region. On the other hand, Meteosat geostationary satellites provide long-term sub-hourly records of cloud top temperatures, raising the possibility of combining these with the high-quality rainfall data from TRMM. In this study, we relate TRMM 2A25 rainfall to Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) cloud top temperatures, which are available from 2004 at 15 minutes intervals, to get a more detailed picture of the structure of intense rainfall within the life cycle of MCS. We find TRMM rainfall intensities within an MCS to be strongly coupled with MSG cloud top temperatures: the probability for extreme rainfall increases from power spectra at scales between 15 and 200km. From these, cloud sub-structures are identified as circular areas of respective scale with local power maxima in their centre. These areas are then mapped onto coinciding TRMM rainfall, allowing us to assign rainfall fields to sub-cloud features of different scales. We find a higher probability for extreme rainfall for cloud features above a scale of 30km, with features 100km contributing most to the number of extreme rainfall pixels. Over the average diurnal

  10. Mapping monthly rainfall erosivity in Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ballabio, C; Meusburger, K; Klik, A

    2017-01-01

    Rainfall erosivity as a dynamic factor of soil loss by water erosion is modelled intra-annually for the first time at European scale. The development of Rainfall Erosivity Database at European Scale (REDES) and its 2015 update with the extension to monthly component allowed to develop monthly and...... events. Consequently, spatio-temporal mapping of rainfall erosivity permits to identify the months and the areas with highest risk of soil loss where conservation measures should be applied in different seasons of the year....... and seasonal R-factor maps and assess rainfall erosivity both spatially and temporally. During winter months, significant rainfall erosivity is present only in part of the Mediterranean countries. A sudden increase of erosivity occurs in major part of European Union (except Mediterranean basin, western part...... to Eastern Europe. The maps also show a clear delineation of areas with different erosivity seasonal patterns, whose spatial outline was evidenced by cluster analysis. The monthly erosivity maps can be used to develop composite indicators that map both intra-annual variability and concentration of erosive...

  11. Regional rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence using a centenary database

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaz, Teresa; Luís Zêzere, José; Pereira, Susana; Cruz Oliveira, Sérgio; Garcia, Ricardo A. C.; Quaresma, Ivânia

    2018-04-01

    This work proposes a comprehensive method to assess rainfall thresholds for landslide initiation using a centenary landslide database associated with a single centenary daily rainfall data set. The method is applied to the Lisbon region and includes the rainfall return period analysis that was used to identify the critical rainfall combination (cumulated rainfall duration) related to each landslide event. The spatial representativeness of the reference rain gauge is evaluated and the rainfall thresholds are assessed and calibrated using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) metrics. Results show that landslide events located up to 10 km from the rain gauge can be used to calculate the rainfall thresholds in the study area; however, these thresholds may be used with acceptable confidence up to 50 km from the rain gauge. The rainfall thresholds obtained using linear and potential regression perform well in ROC metrics. However, the intermediate thresholds based on the probability of landslide events established in the zone between the lower-limit threshold and the upper-limit threshold are much more informative as they indicate the probability of landslide event occurrence given rainfall exceeding the threshold. This information can be easily included in landslide early warning systems, especially when combined with the probability of rainfall above each threshold.

  12. Runoff Analysis Considering Orographical Features Using Dual Polarization Radar Rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noh, Hui-seong; Shin, Hyun-seok; Kang, Na-rae; Lee, Choong-Ke; Kim, Hung-soo

    2013-04-01

    Recently, the necessity for rainfall estimation and forecasting using the radar is being highlighted, due to the frequent occurrence of torrential rainfall resulting from abnormal changes of weather. Radar rainfall data represents temporal and spatial distributions properly and replace the existing rain gauge networks. It is also frequently applied in many hydrologic field researches. However, the radar rainfall data has an accuracy limitation since it estimates rainfall, by monitoring clouds and precipitation particles formed around the surface of the earth(1.5-3km above the surface) or the atmosphere. In a condition like Korea where nearly 70% of the land is covered by mountainous areas, there are lots of restrictions to use rainfall radar, because of the occurrence of beam blocking areas by topography. This study is aiming at analyzing runoff and examining the applicability of (R(Z), R(ZDR) and R(KDP)) provided by the Han River Flood Control Office(HRFCO) based on the basin elevation of Nakdong river watershed. For this purpose, the amount of radar rainfall of each rainfall event was estimated according to three sub-basins of Nakdong river watershed with the average basin elevation above 400m which are Namgang dam, Andong dam and Hapcheon dam and also another three sub-basins with the average basin elevation below 150m which are Waegwan, Changryeong and Goryeong. After runoff analysis using a distribution model, Vflo model, the results were reviewed and compared with the observed runoff. This study estimated the rainfall by using the radar-rainfall transform formulas, (R(Z), R(Z,ZDR) and R(Z,ZDR,KDP) for four stormwater events and compared the results with the point rainfall of the rain gauge. As the result, it was overestimated or underestimated, depending on rainfall events. Also, calculation indicates that the values from R(Z,ZDR) and R(Z,ZDR,KDP) relatively showed the most similar results. Moreover the runoff analysis using the estimated radar rainfall is

  13. Engineering of an Extreme Rainfall Detection System using Grid Computing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olivier Terzo

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes a new approach for intensive rainfall data analysis. ITHACA's Extreme Rainfall Detection System (ERDS is conceived to provide near real-time alerts related to potential exceptional rainfalls worldwide, which can be used by WFP or other humanitarian assistance organizations to evaluate the event and understand the potentially floodable areas where their assistance is needed. This system is based on precipitation analysis and it uses rainfall data from satellite at worldwide extent. This project uses the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis dataset, a NASA-delivered near real-time product for current rainfall condition monitoring over the world. Considering the great deal of data to process, this paper presents an architectural solution based on Grid Computing techniques. Our focus is on the advantages of using a distributed architecture in terms of performances for this specific purpose.

  14. Remote target removal for the Oak Ridge 86-inch Cyclotron

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walls, A.A.

    1982-01-01

    A remotely operated target remover has been plaed in operation at the 86-Inch Cyclotron located in Oak Ridge. The system provides for the remote removal of a target from inside the cyclotron, loading it into a cask, and the removal of the cask from the 1.5 m (5-ft) shielding walls. The remote system consists of multiple electrical and pneumatically operated equipment which is designed for controlled step-by-step operation, operated with an electrical control panel, and monitored by a television system. The target remover has reduced the radiation exposures to operating personnel at the facility and has increased the effective operating time. The system is fast, requires a minimum of skill to operate, and has demonstrated both reliability and durability

  15. Seismic fragility test of a 6-inch diameter pipe system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, W.P.; Onesto, A.T.; DeVita, V.

    1987-02-01

    This report contains the test results and assessments of seismic fragility tests performed on a 6-inch diameter piping system. The test was funded by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and conducted by ETEC. The objective of the test was to investigate the ability of a representative nuclear piping system to withstand high level dynamic seismic and other loadings. Levels of loadings achieved during seismic testing were 20 to 30 times larger than normal elastic design evaluations to ASME Level D limits would permit. Based on failure data obtained during seismic and other dynamic testing, it was concluded that nuclear piping systems are inherently able to withstand much larger dynamic seismic loadings than permitted by current design practice criteria or predicted by the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methods and several proposed nonlinear methods of failure analysis

  16. Analysis of rainfall distribution in Kelantan river basin, Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Che Ros, Faizah; Tosaka, Hiroyuki

    2018-03-01

    Using rainfall gauge on its own as input carries great uncertainties regarding runoff estimation, especially when the area is large and the rainfall is measured and recorded at irregular spaced gauging stations. Hence spatial interpolation is the key to obtain continuous and orderly rainfall distribution at unknown points to be the input to the rainfall runoff processes for distributed and semi-distributed numerical modelling. It is crucial to study and predict the behaviour of rainfall and river runoff to reduce flood damages of the affected area along the Kelantan river. Thus, a good knowledge on rainfall distribution is essential in early flood prediction studies. Forty six rainfall stations and their daily time-series were used to interpolate gridded rainfall surfaces using inverse-distance weighting (IDW), inverse-distance and elevation weighting (IDEW) methods and average rainfall distribution. Sensitivity analysis for distance and elevation parameters were conducted to see the variation produced. The accuracy of these interpolated datasets was examined using cross-validation assessment.

  17. Analysis of rainfall distribution in Kelantan river basin, Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Che Ros Faizah

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Using rainfall gauge on its own as input carries great uncertainties regarding runoff estimation, especially when the area is large and the rainfall is measured and recorded at irregular spaced gauging stations. Hence spatial interpolation is the key to obtain continuous and orderly rainfall distribution at unknown points to be the input to the rainfall runoff processes for distributed and semi-distributed numerical modelling. It is crucial to study and predict the behaviour of rainfall and river runoff to reduce flood damages of the affected area along the Kelantan river. Thus, a good knowledge on rainfall distribution is essential in early flood prediction studies. Forty six rainfall stations and their daily time-series were used to interpolate gridded rainfall surfaces using inverse-distance weighting (IDW, inverse-distance and elevation weighting (IDEW methods and average rainfall distribution. Sensitivity analysis for distance and elevation parameters were conducted to see the variation produced. The accuracy of these interpolated datasets was examined using cross-validation assessment.

  18. Post-Adaptation Vulnerability of Cereals to Rainfall and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    USER

    2014-09-04

    Sep 4, 2014 ... challenges on a global scale (Scholze et al.,. 2006; Mendelsohn et al., 2006). Climate change have ... stress, longer dry seasons and uncertain rainfall patterns putting areas that depend strictly on rainfall ..... season as the greatest hindrance to increased yield of cereals which is more serious in the northern ...

  19. Fractal analysis of rainfall occurrence observed in the synoptic ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Fractal analysis is important for characterizing and modeling rainfall's space-time variations in hydrology. The purpose of this study consists on determining, in a mono-fractal framework, the scale invariance of rainfall series in Benin synopticstations located in two main geographical area: Cotonou, Bohicon , Savè in a sub ...

  20. Seasonal prediction of summer monsoon rainfall over cluster ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Shared nearest neighbour (SNN) cluster algorithm has been applied to seasonal (June–September) rainfall departures over 30 sub-divisions of India to identify the contiguous homogeneous cluster regions over India. Five cluster regions are identified. Rainfall departure series for these cluster regions are prepared by area ...

  1. Investigation of the possible influence of Urbanization on Rainfall ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The data was subjected to homogeneity test by using Short-Cut Bartlett test. Wind variation, rainfall trend and spatial distribution of rainfall were performed by using Wind Rose Plot (WRPLOT) View software, Mann-Kendall test and surfer respectively in the study. The results show that the dominant winds over the study area ...

  2. Flood Prediction using Rainfall – Runoff Spatial Variation: An ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    High intensity rainfall and associated floods have become frequent in most cities and urban areas in recent years, within the lower reaches of the Niger Delta. The magnitude and time variation of rainfall and associated runoff has proved more difficult to predict. This is mainly as a result of the inherent stochastic nature of ...

  3. Urban rainfall estimation employing commercial microwave links (poster)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Overeem, A.; Leijnse, H.; Uijlenhoet, R.; Ten Veldhuis, J.A.E.

    2015-01-01

    In the Rain Sense kickstart project of the Amsterdam Institute for Advanced Metropolitan Solutions (AMS), sensors and citizens are preparing Amsterdam for future weather. Urban areas often lack rainfall information. Hence, new rainfall measurement techniques are important. E.g., the number of

  4. Flexible strategies for coping with rainfall variability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Siderius, Christian; Biemans, Hester; Walsum, Van Paul E.V.; Ierland, Van Ekko C.; Kabat, Pavel; Hellegers, Petra J.G.J.

    2016-01-01

    One of the main manifestations of climate change will be increased rainfall variability. How to deal with this in agriculture will be a major societal challenge. In this paper we explore flexibility in land use, through deliberate seasonal adjustments in cropped area, as a specific strategy for

  5. Improving the understanding of rainfall distribution and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The characterisation of rainfall variability, spatially and temporally, is essential for hydrological and ecological analyses. Inherently, this variability is distinctly more obvious in mountainous areas compared to lowlands. The objective of this study was to ascertain if the use of the regression-Kriging technique would provide ...

  6. Volatile organic compounds (halogenated aliphatic and mono aromatic) in the Paris urban area: atmosphere, rainfall, waste water and surface water; Les composes organiques volatils (aliphatiques halogenes et monoaromatiques) dans l'environnement de l'agglomaration parisienne: atmosphere, precipitations, eaux usees et eaux de surface

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Duclos, Y.

    1998-01-28

    A study of the Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC) in the various environments of the Paris Urban area: atmosphere, rainfall, an experimental catchment in the centre of Paris, a waste-water treatment plant at Acheres, the Der reservoir and the river Seine. The VOC balance was estimated in these various systems and the contamination and dispersion trends evaluated. (author)

  7. Rainfall characteristics and thresholds for periglacial debris flows in the Parlung Zangbo Basin, southeast Tibetan Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Mingfeng; Chen, Ningsheng; Ding, Haitao

    2018-02-01

    The Parlung Zangbo Basin in the southeastern Tibet Plateau is affected by the summer monsoon from the Indian Ocean, which produces large rainfall gradients in the basin. Rainfall data during 2012-2015 from five new meteorological stations are used to analyse the rainfall characteristics. The daily rainfall, rainfall duration, mean rainfall intensity, and peak rainfall intensity are consistent, but sometimes contrasting. For example, these values decrease with increasing altitude, and the gradient is large downstream and small upstream, respectively. Moreover, the rainfall intensity peaks between 01:00 and 06:00 and increases during the afternoon. Based on the analysis of 14 debris flow cases in the basin, differences in the rainfall threshold differ depending on the location as sediment varieties. The sediment in the middle portions of the basin is wet and well structured; thus, long-duration, high-intensity rainfall is required to generate debris flows. Ravels in the upstream area are arid and not well structured, and short-duration rainfall is required to trigger debris flows. Between the above two locations, either long-duration, low-intensity rainfall or short-duration, high-intensity rainfall could provoke debris flows. Clearly, differences in rainfall characteristics and rainfall thresholds that are associated with the location must be considered in debris flow monitoring and warnings.

  8. Rainfall variability and seasonality in northern Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bari, Sheikh Hefzul; Hussain, Md. Manjurul; Husna, Noor-E.-Ashmaul

    2017-08-01

    This paper aimed at the analysis of rainfall seasonality and variability for the northern part of South-Asian country, Bangladesh. The coefficient of variability was used to determine the variability of rainfall. While rainfall seasonality index ( SI ) and mean individual seasonality index ( \\overline{SI_i} ) were used to identify seasonal contrast. We also applied Mann-Kendall trend test and sequential Mann-Kendall test to determine the trend in seasonality. The lowest variability was found for monsoon among the four seasons whereas winter has the highest variability. Observed variability has a decreasing tendency from the northwest region towards the northeast region. The mean individual seasonality index (0.815378 to 0.977228) indicates that rainfall in Bangladesh is "markedly seasonal with a long dry season." It was found that the length of the dry period is lower at the northeastern part of northern Bangladesh. Trend analysis results show no significant change in the seasonality of rainfall in this region. Regression analysis of \\overline{SI_i} and SI, and longitude and mean individual seasonality index show a significant linear correlation for this area.

  9. Principal components of monsoon rainfall

    OpenAIRE

    BEDI, H. S.; BINDRA, M. M. S.

    2011-01-01

    Monsoon rainfall over India during the 120-day period from the beginning of June to the end of September exhibits interesting oscillations over the country. According to an analysis by Sub-bramayya (1968), there is a negative correlation in rainfall between the north-eastern and west-central parts of India. But his analysis does not indicate how much of the total variance of rainfall is explained by different rainfall patterns. We examined this aspect by expressing rainfall as a linear combin...

  10. Extreme flood event analysis in Indonesia based on rainfall intensity and recharge capacity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narulita, Ida; Ningrum, Widya

    2018-02-01

    Indonesia is very vulnerable to flood disaster because it has high rainfall events throughout the year. Flood is categorized as the most important hazard disaster because it is causing social, economic and human losses. The purpose of this study is to analyze extreme flood event based on satellite rainfall dataset to understand the rainfall characteristic (rainfall intensity, rainfall pattern, etc.) that happened before flood disaster in the area for monsoonal, equatorial and local rainfall types. Recharge capacity will be analyzed using land cover and soil distribution. The data used in this study are CHIRPS rainfall satellite data on 0.05 ° spatial resolution and daily temporal resolution, and GSMap satellite rainfall dataset operated by JAXA on 1-hour temporal resolution and 0.1 ° spatial resolution, land use and soil distribution map for recharge capacity analysis. The rainfall characteristic before flooding, and recharge capacity analysis are expected to become the important information for flood mitigation in Indonesia.

  11. Impact of rainfall spatial variability on Flash Flood Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douinot, Audrey; Roux, Hélène; Garambois, Pierre-André; Larnier, Kevin

    2014-05-01

    According to the United States National Hazard Statistics database, flooding and flash flooding have caused the largest number of deaths of any weather-related phenomenon over the last 30 years (Flash Flood Guidance Improvement Team, 2003). Like the storms that cause them, flash floods are very variable and non-linear phenomena in time and space, with the result that understanding and anticipating flash flood genesis is far from straightforward. In the U.S., the Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) estimates the average number of inches of rainfall for given durations required to produce flash flooding in the indicated county. In Europe, flash flood often occurred on small catchments (approximately 100 km2) and it has been shown that the spatial variability of rainfall has a great impact on the catchment response (Le Lay and Saulnier, 2007). Therefore, in this study, based on the Flash flood Guidance method, rainfall spatial variability information is introduced in the threshold estimation. As for FFG, the threshold is the number of millimeters of rainfall required to produce a discharge higher than the discharge corresponding to the first level (yellow) warning of the French flood warning service (SCHAPI: Service Central d'Hydrométéorologie et d'Appui à la Prévision des Inondations). The indexes δ1 and δ2 of Zoccatelli et al. (2010), based on the spatial moments of catchment rainfall, are used to characterize the rainfall spatial distribution. Rainfall spatial variability impacts on warning threshold and on hydrological processes are then studied. The spatially distributed hydrological model MARINE (Roux et al., 2011), dedicated to flash flood prediction is forced with synthetic rainfall patterns of different spatial distributions. This allows the determination of a warning threshold diagram: knowing the spatial distribution of the rainfall forecast and therefore the 2 indexes δ1 and δ2, the threshold value is read on the diagram. A warning threshold diagram is

  12. Multivariate Analysis of Erosivity Indices and Rainfall Physical Characteristics Associated with Rainfall Patterns in Rio de Janeiro

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roriz Luciano Machado

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT The identification of areas with greater erosive potential is important for planning soil and water conservation. The objective of this study was to evaluate the physical characteristics of rainfall events in the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, and their interactions with rainfall patterns through multivariate statistical analysis. Rainfall depth, kinetic energy, 30-min intensity (I30, duration of rainfall events, and the erosivity indices KE >10, KE >25, and EI30 in 36 locations (stations were subjected to principal component analysis (PCA and canonical discriminant analysis (CDA. Based on evaluation of the respective historical series of hyetographs, it was found that the advanced pattern occurs with highest frequency (51.8 %, followed by the delayed pattern (26.1 %, and by the intermediate pattern (22.1 %. All the evaluated rainfall characteristics have high response capacity in describing localities and rainfall patterns through PCA and CDA. In CDA, the Tukey test (p<0.05 applied to the scores of the first canonical discriminant function (CDF1 allowed differentiation of the stations with respect to the rainfall and erosivity characteristics for the advanced and delayed patterns. In the delayed pattern, the localities of Angra dos Reis, Campos, Eletrobrás, Manuel Duarte, Santa Isabel do Rio Preto, Tanguá, Teresópolis, Vila Mambucaba, and Xerém had the highest CDF1 scores, indicating that they have rainfalls with higher depth, I30, and duration because the standardized canonical coefficient (SCC and the correlation coefficient (“r” of these characteristics were positive. The rainfall events in the state of Rio de Janeiro differ from one locality to another in relation to the advanced and delayed rainfall patterns, mainly due to the physical characteristics of rainfall depth, I30, and duration, indicating a higher risk of soil loss and runoff in the localities where rainfall events with the delayed pattern prevail.

  13. Empirical rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence in Portugal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zêzere, José Luis; Vaz, Teresa; Pereira, Susana; Oliveira, Sérgio C.; Marques, Rui; Garcia, Ricardo A. C.

    2015-04-01

    Rainfall is the most important physical process responsible for the landslide triggering in Portugal. Following the work of Zêzere et al. (2014), we present the state of the art concerning the proposition of empirical rainfall thresholds in Portugal for different types of landslides observed in different zones of the country: the Lisbon region, the Douro Valley and the NW Mountains, and the Povoação Municipality in São Miguel Island (Azores). The empirical thresholds applied in Portugal are based on the identification of 120 landslide events and include (i) the computation of antecedent rainfall threshold defined by linear regression, (ii) the normalization of rainfall by the mean annual precipitation, (iii) the definition of combined rainfall thresholds, which integrates the rainfall event and the antecedent rainfall for different time periods, and (iv) the definition of lower limit and upper limit rainfall thresholds. The intensity-duration (ID) threshold is the empirical rainfall threshold more used worldwide. In mainland Portugal, the highest ID rainfall threshold is registered in the NW Mountains, which is the rainiest zone of the country. The Lisbon Region typically receives less rain per year and the corresponding ID threshold is lower than that obtained in the north part of the country. The Povoação study area evidence a contrasting situation, which is associated to the highest value of the negative exponential of the threshold (-0.66). As a consequence, for short duration (1,000 h) it is below the remaining thresholds. The normalization of the ID threshold by the mean annual precipitation (MAP) has showed that, in relative terms: (i) the ID threshold is highest in Lisbon Region for duration less than 50 h; (ii) in the north of the country, the ID threshold is more exigent in the Douro Valley than in the NW Mountains and (iii) the ID threshold in Povoação Municipality is lower when compared with the other areas, independently on the considered

  14. Recent developments in high charge state heavy ion beams at the LBL 88-inch Cyclotron

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gough, R.A.; Clark, D.J.; Glasgow, L.R.

    1978-01-01

    Recent advances in design and operation of the internal PIG sources at the LBL 88-Inch Cyclotron have led to the development of high charge state (0.4 16 O 8+ . Total external intensities of these beams range from 10 12 particles/s for 6 Li 3+ to 0.1 particles/s for 16 O 8+ . Techniques have been developed for routine tune-out of the low intensity beams. These include use of model beams and reliance on the large systematic data base of cyclotron parameters which has been developed over many years of operation. Techniques for delivery of these weak beams to the experimental target areas are presented. Source design and operation, including special problems associated with Li, Be, and B beams are discussed

  15. Development of 8-inch Key Processes for Insulated-Gate Bipolar Transistor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guoyou Liu

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Based on the construction of the 8-inch fabrication line, advanced process technology of 8-inch wafer, as well as the fourth-generation high-voltage double-diffused metal-oxide semiconductor (DMOS+ insulated-gate bipolar transistor (IGBT technology and the fifth-generation trench gate IGBT technology, have been developed, realizing a great-leap forward technological development for the manufacturing of high-voltage IGBT from 6-inch to 8-inch. The 1600 A/1.7 kV and 1500 A/3.3 kV IGBT modules have been successfully fabricated, qualified, and applied in rail transportation traction system.

  16. Spatial and Temporal Uncertainty of Rainfall in Arid and Semi-Arid ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The aim of this study was to assess rainfall uncertainty and trends in the arid and semi-arid areas of Ethiopia by using rainfall data records from the thirteen stations over the period of 1952-2012. In this study annual and seasonal rainfalls were analyzed for trends, least square regression was used to quantify the trends and ...

  17. Impact of climate change on extreme rainfall events and flood risk in ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Journal of Earth System Science; Volume 120; Issue 3 ... Climate changes; extreme rainfall events; flood risk. Abstract. The occurrence of exceptionally heavy rainfall events and associated flash floods in many areas during recent years motivate us to study long-term changes in extreme rainfall over India.

  18. Deforestation alters rainfall: a myth or reality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanif, M. F.; Mustafa, M. R.; Hashim, A. M.; Yusof, K. W.

    2016-06-01

    To cope with the issue of food safety and human shelter, natural landscape has gone through a number of alterations. In the coming future, the expansion of urban land and agricultural farms will likely disrupt the natural environment. Researchers have claimed that land use change may become the most serious issue of the current century. Thus, it is necessary to understand the consequences of land use change on the climatic variables, e.g., rainfall. This study investigated the impact of deforestation on local rainfall. An integrated methodology was adopted to achieve the objectives. Above ground biomass was considered as the indicator of forest areas. Time series data of a Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor were obtained for the year of 2000, 2005, and 2010. Rainfall data were collected from the Department of Irrigation and Drainage, Malaysia. The MODIS time series data were classified and four major classes were developed based on the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) ranges. The results of the classification showed that water, and urban and agricultural lands have increased in their area by 2, 3, and 6%, respectively. On the other hand, the area of forest has decreased 10% collectively from 2000 to 2010. The results of NDVI and rainfall data were analysed by using a linear regression analysis. The results showed a significant relationship at a 90% confidence interval between rainfall and deforestation (t = 1.92, p = 0.06). The results of this study may provide information about the consequences of land use on the climate on the local scale.

  19. Rainfall erosivity map for Ghana

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oduro Afriyie, K.

    1995-10-01

    Monthly rainfall data, spanning over a period of more than thirty years, were used to compute rainfall erosivity indices for various stations in Ghana, using the Fournier index, c, defined as p 2 /P, where p is the rainfall amount in the wettest month and P is the annual rainfall amount. Values of the rainfall erosivity indices ranged from 24.5 mm at Sunyani in the mid-portion of Ghana to 180.9 mm at Axim in the south western coastal portion. The indices were used to construct a rainfall erosivity map for the country. The map revealed that Ghana may be broadly divided into five major erosion risk zones. The middle sector of Ghana is generally in the low erosion risk zone; the northern sector is in the moderate to severe erosion risk zone, while the coastal sector is in the severe to extreme severe erosion risk zone. (author). 11 refs, 1 fig., 1 tab

  20. Lowell Observatory's 24-inch Clark Refractor: Its History and Renovation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schindler, Kevin; Nye, Ralph; Rosenthal, Peter

    2016-01-01

    In 1895, Percival Lowell hired eminent telescope maker Alvan G. Clark to build a 24-inch refractor. Lowell intended the telescope intitally for observing Mars in support of his controversial theories about life on that planet. Clark finished the telescope within a year and at a cost of $20,000. Lowell and his staff of assistants and astronomers began observing through it on July 23, 1896, setting off a long and productive career for the telescope.While Lowell's Mars studies dominated early work with the Clark, V.M. Slipher by the 1910s was using it to observe planetary rotations and atmospheric compositions. He soon revolutionized spectroscopic studies, gathering excruciatingly long spectra - some in excess of 40 hours - of the so-called white nebula and determining startling radial velocities, evidence of an expanding universe. In the 1960s, scientists and artists teamed up on the Clark and created detailed lunar maps in support of the Apollo program.In recent decades, the Clark has played a central role in the education programs at Lowell, with general public audiences, students, and private groups all taking advantage of this unique resource.With this nearly 120 years of contant use, the Clark had been wearing down in recent years. The telescope was becoming more difficult to move, old electrical wiring in the dome was a fire hazard, and many of the telescope's parts needed to be repaired or replaced.In 2013, Lowell Observatory began a fundraising campaign, collecting $291,000 to cover the cost of dome and telescope renovation. Workers removed the entire telescope mount and tube assembly from the dome, examining every part from tube sections to individuals screws. They also stabilized the dome, adding a water vapor barrier and new outer wall while reinforcing the upper dome. The project lasted from January, 2014 through August, 2015. The facility reopened for daytime tours in September, 2015 and evening viewing the following month.

  1. Fitting monthly Peninsula Malaysian rainfall using Tweedie distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yunus, R. M.; Hasan, M. M.; Zubairi, Y. Z.

    2017-09-01

    In this study, the Tweedie distribution was used to fit the monthly rainfall data from 24 monitoring stations of Peninsula Malaysia for the period from January, 2008 to April, 2015. The aim of the study is to determine whether the distributions within the Tweedie family fit well the monthly Malaysian rainfall data. Within the Tweedie family, the gamma distribution is generally used for fitting the rainfall totals, however the Poisson-gamma distribution is more useful to describe two important features of rainfall pattern, which are the occurrences (dry months) and the amount (wet months). First, the appropriate distribution of the monthly rainfall was identified within the Tweedie family for each station. Then, the Tweedie Generalised Linear Model (GLM) with no explanatory variable was used to model the monthly rainfall data. Graphical representation was used to assess model appropriateness. The QQ plots of quantile residuals show that the Tweedie models fit the monthly rainfall data better for majority of the stations in the west coast and mid land than those in the east coast of Peninsula. This significant finding suggests that the best fitted distribution depends on the geographical location of the monitoring station. In this paper, a simple model is developed for generating synthetic rainfall data for use in various areas, including agriculture and irrigation. We have showed that the data that were simulated using the Tweedie distribution have fairly similar frequency histogram to that of the actual data. Both the mean number of rainfall events and mean amount of rain for a month were estimated simultaneously for the case that the Poisson gamma distribution fits the data reasonably well. Thus, this work complements previous studies that fit the rainfall amount and the occurrence of rainfall events separately, each to a different distribution.

  2. Dynamic Hydrological Modeling in Drylands with TRMM Based Rainfall

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena Tarnavsky

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper introduces and evaluates DryMOD, a dynamic water balance model of the key hydrological process in drylands that is based on free, public-domain datasets. The rainfall model of DryMOD makes optimal use of spatially disaggregated Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM datasets to simulate hourly rainfall intensities at a spatial resolution of 1-km. Regional-scale applications of the model in seasonal catchments in Tunisia and Senegal characterize runoff and soil moisture distribution and dynamics in response to varying rainfall data inputs and soil properties. The results highlight the need for hourly-based rainfall simulation and for correcting TRMM 3B42 rainfall intensities for the fractional cover of rainfall (FCR. Without FCR correction and disaggregation to 1 km, TRMM 3B42 based rainfall intensities are too low to generate surface runoff and to induce substantial changes to soil moisture storage. The outcomes from the sensitivity analysis show that topsoil porosity is the most important soil property for simulation of runoff and soil moisture. Thus, we demonstrate the benefit of hydrological investigations at a scale, for which reliable information on soil profile characteristics exists and which is sufficiently fine to account for the heterogeneities of these. Where such information is available, application of DryMOD can assist in the spatial and temporal planning of water harvesting according to runoff-generating areas and the runoff ratio, as well as in the optimization of agricultural activities based on realistic representation of soil moisture conditions.

  3. Rainfall erosivity index for the Ghana Atomic Energy Commission site.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Essel, Paul; Glover, Eric T; Yeboah, Serwaa; Adjei-Kyereme, Yaw; Yawo, Israel Nutifafa Doyi; Nyarku, Mawutoli; Asumadu-Sakyi, Godfred S; Gbeddy, Gustav Kudjoe; Agyiri, Yvette Agyiriba; Ameho, Evans Mawuli; Aberikae, Emmanuel Atule

    2016-01-01

    Rainfall erosivity is the potential ability for rainfall to cause soil loss. The purpose of this study was to estimate the rainfall erosivity index for the Ghana Atomic Energy Commission site in order to compute the surface erosion rate. Monthly rainfall data, for the period 2003-2012 were used to compute annual rainfall erosivity indices for the site, using the Modified Fournier index. Values of the annual rainfall erosivity indices ranged from 73.5 mm for 2004 to 200.4 mm for the year 2003 with a mean annual erosivity index of 129.8 mm for the period. The Pearson's Coefficient of Correlation was used to establish the relationship between annual rainfall and annual rainfall erosivity. This showed a high degree of positive relationship (r = 0.7) for the study area. The computed mean annual erosivity index revealed that the site is in the high erosion risk zone. Therefore, it is necessary to develop soil protection and management strategies to protect the soil from erosion.

  4. 16 CFR 460.20 - R-value per inch claims.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 16 Commercial Practices 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false R-value per inch claims. 460.20 Section 460.20 Commercial Practices FEDERAL TRADE COMMISSION TRADE REGULATION RULES LABELING AND ADVERTISING OF HOME INSULATION § 460.20 R-value per inch claims. In labels, fact sheets, ads, or other promotional...

  5. Orthopedic stretcher with average-sized person can pass through 18-inch opening

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lothschuetz, F. X.

    1966-01-01

    Modified Robinson stretcher for vertical lifting and carrying, will pass through an opening 18 inches in diameter, while containing a person of average height and weight. A subject 6 feet tall and weighing 200 pounds was lowered and raised out of an 18 inch diameter opening in a tank to test the stretcher.

  6. Torque expression of 0.018 and 0.022 inch conventional brackets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sifakakis, I.; Pandis, N.; Makou, M.; Eliades, T.; Katsaros, C.; Bourauel, C.

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this study was to assess the effect of the moments generated with low- and high-torque brackets. Four different bracket prescription-slot combinations of the same bracket type (Mini Diamond(R) Twin) were evaluated: high-torque 0.018 and 0.022 inch and low-torque 0.018 and 0.022 inch.

  7. Comparison of silicon strip tracker module size using large sensors from 6 inch wafers

    CERN Multimedia

    Honma, Alan

    1999-01-01

    Two large silicon strip sensor made from 6 inch wafers are placed next to each other to simulate the size of a CMS outer silicon tracker module. On the left is a prototype 2 sensor CMS inner endcap silicon tracker module made from 4 inch wafers.

  8. Searching regional rainfall homogeneity using atmospheric fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabriele, Salvatore; Chiaravalloti, Francesco

    2013-03-01

    The correct identification of homogeneous areas in regional rainfall frequency analysis is fundamental to ensure the best selection of the probability distribution and the regional model which produce low bias and low root mean square error of quantiles estimation. In an attempt at rainfall spatial homogeneity, the paper explores a new approach that is based on meteo-climatic information. The results are verified ex-post using standard homogeneity tests applied to the annual maximum daily rainfall series. The first step of the proposed procedure selects two different types of homogeneous large regions: convective macro-regions, which contain high values of the Convective Available Potential Energy index, normally associated with convective rainfall events, and stratiform macro-regions, which are characterized by low values of the Q vector Divergence index, associated with dynamic instability and stratiform precipitation. These macro-regions are identified using Hot Spot Analysis to emphasize clusters of extreme values of the indexes. In the second step, inside each identified macro-region, homogeneous sub-regions are found using kriging interpolation on the mean direction of the Vertically Integrated Moisture Flux. To check the proposed procedure, two detailed examples of homogeneous sub-regions are examined.

  9. Estimation of Real-Time Flood Risk on Roads Based on Rainfall Calculated by the Revised Method of Missing Rainfall

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eunmi Kim

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Recently, flood damage by frequent localized downpours in cities is on the increase on account of abnormal climate phenomena and the growth of impermeable areas due to urbanization. This study suggests a method to estimate real-time flood risk on roads for drivers based on the accumulated rainfall. The amount of rainfall of a road link, which is an intensive type, is calculated by using the revised method of missing rainfall in meteorology, because the rainfall is not measured on roads directly. To process in real time with a computer, we use the inverse distance weighting (IDW method, which is a suitable method in the computing system and is commonly used in relation to precipitation due to its simplicity. With real-time accumulated rainfall, the flooding history, rainfall range causing flooding from previous rainfall information and frequency probability of precipitation are used to determine the flood risk on roads. The result of simulation using the suggested algorithms shows the high concordance rate between actual flooded areas in the past and flooded areas derived from the simulation for the research region in Busan, Korea.

  10. Test procedure for the Master-Lee and the modified Champion four inch hydraulic cutters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crystal, J.B.

    1995-01-01

    The Master-Lee and the modified Champion 4 Inch hydraulic cutters are being retested to gather and document information related to the following: determine if the Master-Lee cutters will cut the trunnions of an Aluminum fuel canister and a Stainless Steel fuel canister; determine if the Master-Lee cutters will cut 1 1/2 inch diameter fire hose; determine if the modified Champion 4 inch blade will cut sections of piping; and determine the effectiveness of the centering device for the Champion 4 Inch cutters. Determining the limitations of the hydraulic cutter will aid in the process of debris removal in the K-Basin. Based on a previous test, the cutters were returned to the manufacturer for modifications. The modifications to the Champion 4 Inch Cutter and further testing of the Master-Lee Cutter are the subjects of these feature tests

  11. Comparison of Adaline and Multiple Linear Regression Methods for Rainfall Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutawinaya, IP; Astawa, INGA; Hariyanti, NKD

    2018-01-01

    Heavy rainfall can cause disaster, therefore need a forecast to predict rainfall intensity. Main factor that cause flooding is there is a high rainfall intensity and it makes the river become overcapacity. This will cause flooding around the area. Rainfall factor is a dynamic factor, so rainfall is very interesting to be studied. In order to support the rainfall forecasting, there are methods that can be used from Artificial Intelligence (AI) to statistic. In this research, we used Adaline for AI method and Regression for statistic method. The more accurate forecast result shows the method that used is good for forecasting the rainfall. Through those methods, we expected which is the best method for rainfall forecasting here.

  12. Study on the standard of soil erosion gradation based on erosive daily rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Gang; Ye, Suigao; Shen, Zhaowei; Lu, Fangchun; Zhang, Jinjuan

    2017-11-01

    This paper took Yuyao city as the research area. the daily rainfall data of 30-year was collected from the typical rainfall station. And the daily rainfall power function model was used to calculate the rainfall erosivity. The weight that the rainfall erosivity of the rainfall less than 30mm accounted for the total annual rainfall erosivity was calculated and analyzed. A method for soil erosion intensity gradation based on daily rainfall was proposed. At the same time, according to People’s Republic of China water conservancy industry standard “the standards for classification and gradation of soil erosion”, the weight value was used to establish the gradation standard of soil erosion intensity. The daily soil loss tolerance was 7 t/km2 calculated by this method.

  13. Rainfall Erosivity in Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Panagos, Panos; Ballabio, Cristiano; Borrelli, Pasquale

    2015-01-01

    on the best available datasets. Data have been collected from 1541 precipitation stations in all European Union (EU) Member States and Switzerland, with temporal resolutions of 5 to 60 min. The R-factor values calculated from precipitation data of different temporal resolutions were normalised to R......-factor values with temporal resolutions of 30 min using linear regression functions. Precipitation time series ranged from a minimum of 5 years to a maximum of 40 years. The average time series per precipitation station is around 17.1 years, the most datasets including the first decade of the 21st century....... Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) has been used to interpolate the R-factor station values to a European rainfall erosivity map at 1 km resolution. The covariates used for the R-factor interpolation were climatic data (total precipitation, seasonal precipitation, precipitation of driest/wettest months...

  14. Acidity in rainfall

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tisue, G.T.; Kacoyannakis, J.

    1975-01-01

    The reported increasing acidity of rainfall raises many interesting ecological and chemical questions. In spite of extensive studies in Europe and North America there are, for example, great uncertainties in the relative contributions of strong and weak acids to the acid-base properties of rainwater. Unravelling this and similar problems may require even more rigorous sample collection and analytical procedures than previously employed. Careful analysis of titration curves permits inferences to be made regarding chemical composition, the possible response of rainwater to further inputs of acidic components to the atmosphere, and the behavior to be expected when rainwater interacts with the buffers present in biological materials and natural waters. Rainwater samples collected during several precipitation events at Argonne National Laboratory during October and November 1975 have been analyzed for pH, acid and base neutralizing properties, and the ions of ammonium, nitrate, chloride, sulfate, and calcium. The results are tabulated

  15. Radar rainfall image repair techniques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen M. Wesson

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available There are various quality problems associated with radar rainfall data viewed in images that include ground clutter, beam blocking and anomalous propagation, to name a few. To obtain the best rainfall estimate possible, techniques for removing ground clutter (non-meteorological echoes that influence radar data quality on 2-D radar rainfall image data sets are presented here. These techniques concentrate on repairing the images in both a computationally fast and accurate manner, and are nearest neighbour techniques of two sub-types: Individual Target and Border Tracing. The contaminated data is estimated through Kriging, considered the optimal technique for the spatial interpolation of Gaussian data, where the 'screening effect' that occurs with the Kriging weighting distribution around target points is exploited to ensure computational efficiency. Matrix rank reduction techniques in combination with Singular Value Decomposition (SVD are also suggested for finding an efficient solution to the Kriging Equations which can cope with near singular systems. Rainfall estimation at ground level from radar rainfall volume scan data is of interest and importance in earth bound applications such as hydrology and agriculture. As an extension of the above, Ordinary Kriging is applied to three-dimensional radar rainfall data to estimate rainfall rate at ground level. Keywords: ground clutter, data infilling, Ordinary Kriging, nearest neighbours, Singular Value Decomposition, border tracing, computation time, ground level rainfall estimation

  16. Spatial dependence of extreme rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radi, Noor Fadhilah Ahmad; Zakaria, Roslinazairimah; Satari, Siti Zanariah; Azman, Muhammad Az-zuhri

    2017-05-01

    This study aims to model the spatial extreme daily rainfall process using the max-stable model. The max-stable model is used to capture the dependence structure of spatial properties of extreme rainfall. Three models from max-stable are considered namely Smith, Schlather and Brown-Resnick models. The methods are applied on 12 selected rainfall stations in Kelantan, Malaysia. Most of the extreme rainfall data occur during wet season from October to December of 1971 to 2012. This period is chosen to assure the available data is enough to satisfy the assumption of stationarity. The dependence parameters including the range and smoothness, are estimated using composite likelihood approach. Then, the bootstrap approach is applied to generate synthetic extreme rainfall data for all models using the estimated dependence parameters. The goodness of fit between the observed extreme rainfall and the synthetic data is assessed using the composite likelihood information criterion (CLIC). Results show that Schlather model is the best followed by Brown-Resnick and Smith models based on the smallest CLIC's value. Thus, the max-stable model is suitable to be used to model extreme rainfall in Kelantan. The study on spatial dependence in extreme rainfall modelling is important to reduce the uncertainties of the point estimates for the tail index. If the spatial dependency is estimated individually, the uncertainties will be large. Furthermore, in the case of joint return level is of interest, taking into accounts the spatial dependence properties will improve the estimation process.

  17. Probabilistic rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence using a Bayesian approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berti, M.; Martina, M.; Franceschini, S.; Pignone, S.; Simoni, A.; Pizziolo, M.

    2012-04-01

    Landslide rainfall thresholds are commonly defined as the critical value of two combined variables (e.g. rainfall duration and rainfall intensity) responsible for the occurrence of landslides in a given area. Various methods have been proposed in the literature to predict the rainfall conditions that are likely to trigger landslides, using for instance physically-based models or statistical analysis of historical catalogues. Most of these methods share an implicit deterministic view: the occurrence of landslides can be predicted by comparing the input value (rainfall conditions) with the threshold, and a single output (landslide or no-landslide) is only possible for a given input. In practical applications, however, a deterministic approach is not always applicable. Failure conditions are often achieved with a unique combination of many relevant factors (hydrologic response, weathering, changes in field stress, anthropic activity) and landslide triggering cannot be predicted by rainfall alone. When different outputs (landslide or no-landslide) can be obtained for the same input (rainfall conditions) a deterministic approach is no longer applicable and a probabilistic model is preferable. In this study we propose a new method to evaluate the rainfall thresholds based on Bayes probability. The method is simple, statistically rigorous, and provides a way to define thresholds in complex cases, when conventional approaches become highly subjective. The Bayes theorem is a direct application of conditional probabilities and it allows to computed the conditional probability to have a landslide (A) when a rainfall event of a given magnitude (B) is expected. The fundamental aspect of the Bayes approach is that the landslide probability P(A|B) depends not only on the observed probability of the triggering rainfall P(B|A), but also on the marginal probability of the expected rainfall event P(B). Therefore, both the rainfall that resulted in landslides and the rainfall that not

  18. Trend analysis of long-term rainfall

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabio de Oliveira Sanches

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available In the Pampas Region in the southwest of the State of Rio Grande do Sul, there are areas that show fragility in relation to soil and climatic characteristics. The sandy areas of this region have attracted special attention in the recent decades due to historical, socio economic and environmental issues. An increase in the amount of sand, or “sandization”, occurred due to natural phenomena such as rainfall and wind. Therefore, the sandization process could be influenced by an increase of precipitation in the area. The goal of this work was to analyze precipitation during different time periods in Alegrete, Rio Grande do Sul, from 1928 to 2009 in order to identify evidence of changes in rainfall behavior. Rainfall data from the Brazilian National Water Agency (Portuguese acronym ANA provided by the system hidroweb (http://hidroweb.ana.gov.br were analyzed. After the data were organized on total monthly, trimestral and annual values, they were analyzed for their linear trend over time. The Mann-Kendall test was used to quantitatively evaluate positive and negative trends; however, the data did not provide evidence of climatic changes, but rather of normal random weather events during the time period studied.

  19. Changing rainfall and humidity within Southeast Texas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Robert Kennedy

    2015-01-01

    Southeast Texas houses a precipitation transition zone between drier conditions to the North and West and some of the wettest parts of the continental U.S. to the East. The Region has seen an increase in its reported normal annual precipitation totals in recent decades. In order to determine if the additional rainfall has been influenced by warming temperatures or is within the variability of the State's long-term drought cycles, several analyses were performed on historical climate data. The analyses answered several questions: Have global and regional climate change models predicted precipitation increases in Southeast Texas and are future increases expected? Do historical monthly precipitation totals at various sites in the region provide clear trends of wetter conditions that can be discerned from long-term drought cycles? Are rainfall patterns changing with less frequent, heavier rain events? Do the reported increases in annual rainfall actually lead to wetter conditions in the region? Climate models have not predicted larger annual average precipitation totals nor do they forecast increases for Southeast Texas. While recent decades may have seen more rain relative to earlier periods, a combined analysis of observation stations across different parts of the Region shows that long-term trends are dependent on when the data is selected relative to a drought cycle. While some stations show larger amounts of rain falling during fewer days, these trends do not hold across all periods. An examination of hourly data does not show an increase in extreme rainfall events or a decrease in the number of hours during which rain has fallen. Even though rainfall has not decreased, average relative humidity has fallen. This suggests that the area is drying even with steady or increasing amounts of rain.

  20. Application of seasonal rainfall forecasts and satellite rainfall observations to crop yield forecasting for Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greatrex, H. L.; Grimes, D. I. F.; Wheeler, T. R.

    2009-04-01

    Rain-fed agriculture is of utmost importance in sub-Saharan Africa; the FAO estimates that over 90% of food consumed in the region is grown in rain-fed farming systems. As the climate in sub-Saharan Africa has a high interannual variability, this dependence on rainfall can leave communities extremely vulnerable to food shortages, especially when coupled with a lack of crop management options. The ability to make a regional forecast of crop yield on a timescale of months would be of enormous benefit; it would enable both governmental and non-governmental organisations to be alerted in advance to crop failure and could facilitate national and regional economic planning. Such a system would also enable individual communities to make more informed crop management decisions, increasing their resilience to climate variability and change. It should be noted that the majority of crops in the region are rainfall limited, therefore the ability to create a seasonal crop forecast depends on the ability to forecast rainfall at a monthly or seasonal timescale and to temporally downscale this to a daily time-series of rainfall. The aim of this project is to develop a regional-scale seasonal forecast for sub-Saharan crops, utilising the General Large Area Model for annual crops (GLAM). GLAM would initially be driven using both dynamical and statistical seasonal rainfall forecasts to provide an initial estimate of crop yield. The system would then be continuously updated throughout the season by replacing the seasonal rainfall forecast with daily weather observations. TAMSAT satellite rainfall estimates are used rather than rain-gauge data due to the scarcity of ground based observations. An important feature of the system is the use of the geo-statistical method of sequential simulation to create an ensemble of daily weather inputs from both the statistical seasonal rainfall forecasts and the satellite rainfall estimates. This allows a range of possible yield outputs to be

  1. Rainfall monitoring with microwave link networks -state of the art

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Vos, Lotte; Overeem, Aart; Ríos Gaona, Manuel; van Leth, Tommy; Uijlenhoet, Remko

    2017-04-01

    For the purpose of hydrological applications, meteorology, climate monitoring and agriculture, accurate high resolution rainfall monitoring is highly desirable. Often used techniques to measure rainfall include rain gauge networks and radar. However, accurate rainfall information is lacking in large areas in the world, and the number of rain gauges is even severely declining in Europe, South-America and Africa. The investments required for the installation and maintenance of dense sensor networks can form a large obstacle. Over the past decade, various investigations have shown that microwave links from cellular communication networks may be used for rainfall monitoring. These commercial networks are installed for the purpose of cellular communication. These consist of antennas that transmit microwave link signals through the atmosphere over a path of typically several kilometers. Microwave signals are sensitive to rainfall at the frequencies that are typically used. The loss of signal (attenuation) over the link-path, which is logged in real-time by cellular communication companies for quality monitoring, can therefore be interpreted as a rainfall measurement. In recent years, various techniques have been developed to quantitatively determine rainfall from these microwave link attenuations. An overview of error sources in this process, quantitative rainfall determination techniques, as well as the results of various validation studies are provided. These studies show that there is considerable potential in using commercial microwave link networks for rainfall monitoring. This is a promising development, as these networks cover 20% of the land surface of the earth and have high density, especially in urban areas where there is generally a lack of in situ ground measurements.

  2. One hundred years of rainfall trends in California

    OpenAIRE

    Goodridge, James D.

    1991-01-01

    This paper is an examination of precipitation trends in California for 100 years based on 96 rain records. The study resulted from an attempt to develop a wetness index for the San Francisco Bay area, where declining rainfall trends indicated a lot more rainfall in the first 50 years of the study period. A regular pattern of decline was found in California coastal stations, concurrent with an increasing trend at inland stations.

  3. Mapping monthly rainfall erosivity in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballabio, Cristiano; Borrelli, Pasquale; Spinoni, Jonathan; Meusburger, Katrin; Michaelides, Silas; Beguería, Santiago; Klik, Andreas; Petan, Sašo; Janeček, Miloslav; Olsen, Preben; Aalto, Juha; Lakatos, Mónika; Rymszewicz, Anna; Dumitrescu, Alexandru; Tadić, Melita Perčec; Diodato, Nazzareno; Kostalova, Julia; Rousseva, Svetla; Banasik, Kazimierz; Alewell, Christine; Panagos, Panos

    2017-02-01

    Rainfall erosivity as a dynamic factor of soil loss by water erosion is modelled intra-annually for the first time at European scale. The development of Rainfall Erosivity Database at European Scale (REDES) and its 2015 update with the extension to monthly component allowed to develop monthly and seasonal R-factor maps and assess rainfall erosivity both spatially and temporally. During winter months, significant rainfall erosivity is present only in part of the Mediterranean countries. A sudden increase of erosivity occurs in major part of European Union (except Mediterranean basin, western part of Britain and Ireland) in May and the highest values are registered during summer months. Starting from September, R-factor has a decreasing trend. The mean rainfall erosivity in summer is almost 4 times higher (315MJmmha -1 h -1 ) compared to winter (87MJmmha -1 h -1 ). The Cubist model has been selected among various statistical models to perform the spatial interpolation due to its excellent performance, ability to model non-linearity and interpretability. The monthly prediction is an order more difficult than the annual one as it is limited by the number of covariates and, for consistency, the sum of all months has to be close to annual erosivity. The performance of the Cubist models proved to be generally high, resulting in R 2 values between 0.40 and 0.64 in cross-validation. The obtained months show an increasing trend of erosivity occurring from winter to summer starting from western to Eastern Europe. The maps also show a clear delineation of areas with different erosivity seasonal patterns, whose spatial outline was evidenced by cluster analysis. The monthly erosivity maps can be used to develop composite indicators that map both intra-annual variability and concentration of erosive events. Consequently, spatio-temporal mapping of rainfall erosivity permits to identify the months and the areas with highest risk of soil loss where conservation measures should be

  4. Gross rainfall amount and maximum rainfall intensity in 60-minute influence on interception loss of shrubs: a 10-year observation in the Tengger Desert.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhi-Shan; Zhao, Yang; Li, Xin-Rong; Huang, Lei; Tan, Hui-Juan

    2016-05-17

    In water-limited regions, rainfall interception is influenced by rainfall properties and crown characteristics. Rainfall properties, aside from gross rainfall amount and duration (GR and RD), maximum rainfall intensity and rainless gap (RG), within rain events may heavily affect throughfall and interception by plants. From 2004 to 2014 (except for 2007), individual shrubs of Caragana korshinskii and Artemisia ordosica were selected to measure throughfall during 210 rain events. Various rainfall properties were auto-measured and crown characteristics, i.e., height, branch and leaf area index, crown area and volume of two shrubs were also measured. The relative interceptions of C. korshinskii and A. ordosica were 29.1% and 17.1%, respectively. Rainfall properties have more contributions than crown characteristics to throughfall and interception of shrubs. Throughfall and interception of shrubs can be explained by GR, RI60 (maximum rainfall intensities during 60 min), RD and RG in deceasing importance. However, relative throughfall and interception of two shrubs have different responses to rainfall properties and crown characteristics, those of C. korshinskii were closely related to rainfall properties, while those of A. ordosica were more dependent on crown characteristics. We highlight long-term monitoring is very necessary to determine the relationships between throughfall and interception with crown characteristics.

  5. Rainfall spatiotemporal variability relation to wetlands hydroperiods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serrano-Hidalgo, Carmen; Guardiola-Albert, Carolina; Fernandez-Naranjo, Nuria

    2017-04-01

    Doñana natural space (Southwestern Spain) is one of the largest protected wetlands in Europe. The wide marshes present in this natural space have such ecological value that this wetland has been declared a Ramsar reserve in 1982. Apart from the extensive marsh, there are also small lagoons and seasonally flooded areas which are likewise essential to maintain a wide variety of valuable habitats. Hydroperiod, the length of time each point remains flooded along an annual cycle, is a critical ecological parameter that shapes aquatic plants and animals distribution and determines available habitat for many of the living organisms in the marshes. Recently, there have been published two different works estimating the hydroperiod of Doñana lagoons with Landsat Time Series images (Cifuentes et al., 2015; Díaz-Delgado et al., 2016). In both works the flooding cycle hydroperiod in Doñana marshes reveals a flooding regime mainly driven by rainfall, evapotranspiration, topography and local hydrological management actions. The correlation found between rainfall and hydroperiod is studied differently in both works. While in one the rainfall is taken from one raingauge (Cifuentes et al., 2015), the one performed by Díaz-Delgado (2016) uses annual rainfall maps interpolated with the inverse of the distance method. The rainfall spatiotemporal variability in this area can be highly significant; however the amount of this importance has not been quantified at the moment. In the present work the geostatistical tool known as spatiotemporal variogram is used to study the rainfall spatiotemporal variability. The spacetime package implemented in R (Pebesma, 2012) facilities its computation from a high rainfall data base of more than 100 raingauges from 1950 to 2016. With the aid of these variograms the rainfall spatiotemporal variability is quantified. The principal aim of the present work is the study of the relation between the rainfall spatiotemporal variability and the

  6. Development and application of artificial rainfall device

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gao Xiaomei; Li Zhaolin; Jia Xue; Tadatoshi Yamamoto; Shinichi Takebe

    2000-01-01

    An artificial sprinkling simulation device was designed and developed to be used for radioactive nuclides migration tests. In this device water drops are sprinkled through medical syringe needles which vibrate along a circle. After several year operation at the field test site, it was demonstrated that this device is stable and sprinkling homogeneous, with the rainfall intensity from 2 mm/h to 100 mm/h and the low limit of 2 mm/h. Compared with spraying nozzle, it is easy to control the rainfall quantity and sprinkling area, and the evaporation loss is small. The device can meet the requirement of radioactive nuclide migration test and may also be used for other purpose

  7. Simulation of daily rainfall through markov chain modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sadiq, N.

    2015-01-01

    Being an agricultural country, the inhabitants of dry land in cultivated areas mainly rely on the daily rainfall for watering their fields. A stochastic model based on first order Markov Chain was developed to simulate daily rainfall data for Multan, D. I. Khan, Nawabshah, Chilas and Barkhan for the period 1981-2010. Transitional probability matrices of first order Markov Chain was utilized to generate the daily rainfall occurrence while gamma distribution was used to generate the daily rainfall amount. In order to achieve the parametric values of mentioned cities, method of moments is used to estimate the shape and scale parameters which lead to synthetic sequence generation as per gamma distribution. In this study, unconditional and conditional probabilities of wet and dry days in sum with means and standard deviations are considered as the essential parameters for the simulated stochastic generation of daily rainfalls. It has been found that the computerized synthetic rainfall series concurred pretty well with the actual observed rainfall series. (author)

  8. A TRMM-Calibrated Infrared Technique for Global Rainfall Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Negri, Andrew J.; Adler, Robert F.; Xu, Li-Ming

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents the development of a satellite infrared (IR) technique for estimating convective and stratiform rainfall and its application in studying the diurnal variability of rainfall on a global scale. The Convective-Stratiform Technique (CST), calibrated by coincident, physically retrieved rain rates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR), is applied over the global tropics during summer 2001. The technique is calibrated separately over land and ocean, making ingenious use of the IR data from the TRMM Visible/Infrared Scanner (VIRS) before application to global geosynchronous satellite data. The low sampling rate of TRMM PR imposes limitations on calibrating IR- based techniques; however, our research shows that PR observations can be applied to improve IR-based techniques significantly by selecting adequate calibration areas and calibration length. The diurnal cycle of rainfall, as well as the division between convective and t i f m rainfall will be presented. The technique is validated using available data sets and compared to other global rainfall products such as Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) IR product, calibrated with TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) data. The calibrated CST technique has the advantages of high spatial resolution (4 km), filtering of non-raining cirrus clouds, and the stratification of the rainfall into its convective and stratiform components, the latter being important for the calculation of vertical profiles of latent heating.

  9. Characteristics of Landslide Size Distribution in Response to Different Rainfall Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Y.; Lan, H.; Li, L.

    2017-12-01

    There have long been controversies on the characteristics of landslide size distribution in response to different rainfall scenarios. For inspecting the characteristics, we have collected a large amount of data, including shallow landslide inventory with landslide areas and landslide occurrence times recorded, and a longtime daily rainfall series fully covering all the landslide occurrences. Three indexes were adopted to quantitatively describe the characteristics of landslide-related rainfall events, which are rainfall duration, rainfall intensity, and the number of rainy days. The first index, rainfall duration, is derived from the exceptional character of a landslide-related rainfall event, which can be explained in terms of the recurrence interval or return period, according to the extreme value theory. The second index, rainfall intensity, is the average rainfall in this duration. The third index is the number of rainy days in this duration. These three indexes were normalized using the standard score method to ensure that they are in the same order of magnitude. Based on these three indexes, landslide-related rainfall events were categorized by a k-means method into four scenarios: moderate rainfall, storm, long-duration rainfall, and long-duration intermittent rainfall. Then, landslides were in turn categorized into four groups according to the scenarios of rainfall events related to them. Inverse-gamma distribution was applied to characterize the area distributions of the four different landslide groups. A tail index and a rollover of the landslide size distribution can be obtained according to the parameters of the distribution. Characteristics of landslide size distribution show that the rollovers of the size distributions of landslides related to storm and long-duration rainfall are larger than those of landslides in the other two groups. It may indicate that the location of rollover may shift right with the increase of rainfall intensity and the

  10. Fluvial signatures of modern and paleo orographic rainfall gradients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schildgen, Taylor; Strecker, Manfred

    2016-04-01

    The morphology of river profiles is intimately linked to both climate and tectonic forcing. While much interest recently has focused on how river profiles can be inverted to derive uplift histories, here we show how in regions of strong orographic rainfall gradients, rivers may primarily record spatial patterns of precipitation. As a case study, we examine the eastern margin of the Andean plateau in NW Argentina, where the outward (eastward) growth of a broken foreland has led to a eastward shift in the main orographic rainfall gradient over the last several million years. Rivers influenced by the modern rainfall gradient are characterized by normalized river steepness values in tributary valleys that closely track spatial variations in rainfall, with higher steepness values in drier areas and lower steepness values in wetter areas. The same river steepness pattern has been predicted in landscape evolution models that apply a spatial gradient in rainfall to a region of uniform erosivity and uplift rate (e.g., Han et al., 2015). Also, chi plots from river networks on individual ranges affected by the modern orographic rainfall reveal patterns consistent with assymmetric precipitation across the range: the largest channels on the windward slopes are characterized by capture, while the longest channels on the leeward slopes are dominated by beheadings. Because basins on the windward side both lengthen and widen, tributary channels in the lengthening basins are characterized by capture, while tributary channels from neighboring basins on the windward side are dominated by beheadings. These patterns from the rivers influenced by the modern orographic rainfall gradient provide a guide for identifying river morphometric signatures of paleo orographic rainfall gradients. Mountain ranges to the west of the modern orographic rainfall have been interpreted to mark the location of orographic rainfall in the past, but these ranges are now in spatially near-uniform semi-arid to

  11. MT. BIGELOW 61-INCH IMAGES OF 9P/TEMPEL 1

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set contains 6 images of 9P/Tempel 1 obtained on five nights in 1994 using a visual CCD mounted on the 61-inch Kuiper telescope of the Mt. Bigelow...

  12. Project W320 52-inch diameter equipment container load test: Test report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bellomy, J.R.

    1995-01-01

    This test report summarizes testing activities and documents the results of the load tests performed on-site and off-site to structural qualify the 52-inch equipment containers designed and fabricated under Project W-320

  13. NEXRAD Rainfall Data: Eureka, California

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Next-Generation Radar (NEXRAD) Weather Surveillance Radar 1988 (WSR-88D) measurements were used to support AMSR-E rainfall validation efforts in Eureka, California,...

  14. Rainfall: Features and Variations over Saudi Arabia, A Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hosny Hasanean

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available The Saudi Arabia (SA climate varies greatly, depending on the geography and the season. According to K ppen and Geiger, the climates of SA is “desert climate”. The analysis of the seasonal rainfall detects that spring and winter seasons have the highestrainfall incidence, respectively. Through the summer,small quantities of precipitation are observed, while autumn received more precipitation more than summer season considering the total annual rainfall. In all seasons, the SW area receives rainfall, with a maximum in spring, whereas in the summer season, the NE and NW areas receive very little quantities of precipitation. The Rub Al-Khali (the SE region is almost totally dry. The maximum amount of annual rainfall does not always happen at the highest elevation. Therefore, the elevation is not the only factor in rainfall distribution.A great inter-annual change in the rainfall over the SA for the period (1978–2009 is observed. In addition, in the same period, a linear decreasing trend is found in the observed rainfall, whilst in the recent past (1994–2009 a statistically significant negative trend is observed. In the Southern part of the Arabian Peninsula (AP and along the coast of the Red Sea, it is interesting to note that rainfall increased, whilst it decreased over most areas of SA during the 2000–2009 decade, compared to 1980–1989.Statistical and numerical models are used to predict rainfall over Saudi Arabia (SA. The statistical models based on stochastic models of ARIMA and numerical models based on Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies of Hadley Centre (PRECIS. Climate and its qualitative character and quantified range of possible future changes are investigated. The annual total rainfall decreases in most regions of the SA and only increases in the south. The summertime precipitation will be the highest between other seasons over the southern, the southwestern provinces and Asir mountains, while the wintertime

  15. Analysis of Rainfall Intensity in Madiun Watershed, East Java

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muttaqin Muttaqin

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the reasearch in the area of Madiun River Basin is to make and to analyze the Intensity Duration Curve (IDC i.e. the curve describing graphically the relation between rainfall intensity and rainfall duration in a certain frequent period. Formulation used in the research was Talbot Formula and Ishiguro’s. In the drafting of Intensity Duration Curve it was used specific coefficient i.e by using the rainfall data of fifteen and sixty duration for both applied formulations. The IDC recorded has not mean difference because in both formulation was used coefficient of the same value. The pattern of the rainfall intensity occured directed toward Nort East. It was happened because of the moving clouds directed toward that course. Depression occured at the backward of Mount Lawu, exactly toward East.

  16. Montana groundwater quality impact of rainfall, land use, and geology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bauder, J.W.

    1991-01-01

    The significance of climatic change on groundwater quality in the Northern Plains is discussed. In some parts of Montana, particularly west of the Continental Divide, relatively high rainfall has contributed to the annual flushing, dilution and mixing of nitrates, and use of annual cropping practices. Consequently, nitrate-nitrogen levels in groundwater seldom exceed established standards. However, such intensive farming, coupled with high rainfall during critical times of the year, could contribute to movement of pesticides and other contaminants to groundwater. East of the Continental Divide, relatively low annual rainfall has contributed to the concentration of soluble salts in both shallow and deep groundwater. In addition, limited rainfall has promoted the use of summer fallowing as the predominant agricultural land use practice in the cropped areas. Summer fallowing has likely led to increases in nitrate-nitrogen concentration in some geographic regions. Climatic change leading to less rainfall could potentially impact the use of additional summer fallowing practices, while climatic change leading to greater rainfall amounts in this region might contribute to additional nitrate leaching in areas where nitrates have accumulated below the root zone as a result of long-term alternate crop fallowing practices. 2 refs,

  17. Ten-Year Climatology of Summertime Diurnal Rainfall Rate Over the Conterminous U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsui, Toshihisa; Mocko, David; Lee, Myong-In; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Suarez, Max J.; Pielke, Roger A., Sr.

    2010-01-01

    Diurnal cycles of summertime rainfall rates are examined over the conterminous United States, using radar-gauge assimilated hourly rainfall data. As in earlier studies, rainfall diurnal composites show a well-defined region of rainfall propagation over the Great Plains and an afternoon maximum area over the south and eastern portion of the United States. Zonal phase speeds of rainfall in three different small domains are estimated, and rainfall propagation speeds are compared with background zonal wind speeds. Unique rainfall propagation speeds in three different regions can be explained by the evolution of latent-heat theory linked to the convective available potential energy, than by gust-front induced or gravity wave propagation mechanisms.

  18. The Berkeley accelerator space effects facility (BASE) - A newmission for the 88-inch cyclotron at LBNL

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McMahan, M.A.

    2005-09-06

    In FY04, the 88-Inch Cyclotron began a new operating mode that supports a local research program in nuclear science, R&D in accelerator technology and a test facility for the National Security Space (NSS) community (the U.S. Air Force and NRO). The NSS community (and others on a cost recovery basis) can take advantage of both the light- and heavy-ion capabilities of the Cyclotron to simulate the space radiation environment. A significant portion of this work involves the testing of microcircuits for single event effects. The experimental areas within the building that are used for the radiation effects testing are now called the Berkeley Accelerator and Space Effects (BASE) facility. Improvements to the facility to provide increased reliability, quality assurance and new capabilities are underway and will be discussed. These include a 16 AMeV ''cocktail'' of beams for heavy ion testing, a neutron beam, more robust dosimetry, and other upgrades.

  19. Experimental performance of an internal resistance heater for Langley 6-inch expansion tube driver

    Science.gov (United States)

    Creel, T. R., Jr.

    1972-01-01

    An experimental investigation of the heating characteristics of an internal resistance heating element was conducted in the driver of the Langley 6-inch expansion tube to obtain actual operating conditions, to compare these results to theory, and to determine whether any modification need be made to the heater element. The heater was operated in pressurized helium from 138. MN/sq m to 62.1 MN/sq m. This investigation revealed large temperature variations within the heater element caused primarily by area reductions at insulator locations. These large temperature variations were reduced by welding small tabs over all grooves. Previous predictions of heater element and driver gas temperature were unacceptable so new equations were derived. These equations predict element and gas temperature within 10 percent of the test data when either the constant power cycle or the interrupted power cycle is used. Visual observation of the heater element, when exposed to the atmosphere with power on, resulted in a decision to limit the heater element to 815 K. Experimental shock Mach numbers are in good agreement with theory.

  20. Rainfall simulators in hydrological and geomorphological sciences: benefits, applications and future research directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iserloh, Thomas; Cerdà, Artemi; Fister, Wolfgang; Seitz, Steffen; Keesstra, Saskia; Green, Daniel; Gabriels, Donald

    2017-04-01

    Rainfall simulators are used extensively within the hydrological and geomorphological sciences and provide a useful investigative tool to understand many processes, such as: (i) plot-scale runoff, infiltration and erosion; (ii) irrigation and crop management, and; (iii) investigations into flooding within a laboratory setting. Although natural rainfall is desirable as it represents actual conditions in a given geographic location, data acquisition relying on natural rainfall is often hindered by its unpredictable nature. Furthermore, rainfall characteristics such as the intensity, duration, drop size distribution and kinetic energy cannot be spatially or temporally regulated or repeated between experimentation. Rainfall simulators provide a suitable method to overcome the issues associated with depending on potentially erratic and unpredictable natural rainfall as they allow: (i) multiple measurements to be taken quickly without waiting for suitable natural rainfall conditions; (ii) the simulation of spatially and/or temporally controlled rainfall patterns over a given plot area, and; (iii) the creation of a closed environment, allowing simplified measurement of input and output conditions. There is no standardisation of rainfall simulation and as such, rainfall simulators differ in their design, rainfall characteristics and research application. Although this impedes drawing meaningful comparisons between studies, this allows researchers to create a bespoke and tailored rainfall simulator for the specific research application. This paper summarises the rainfall simulators used in European research institutions (Universities of Trier, Valencia, Basel, Tuebingen, Wageningen, Loughborough and Ghent) to investigate a number of hydrological and geomorphological issues and includes details on the design specifications (such as the extent and characteristics of simulated rainfall), as well as a discussion of the purpose and application of the rainfall simulator.

  1. Satellite-based high-resolution mapping of rainfall over southern Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer, Hanna; Drönner, Johannes; Nauss, Thomas

    2017-06-01

    A spatially explicit mapping of rainfall is necessary for southern Africa for eco-climatological studies or nowcasting but accurate estimates are still a challenging task. This study presents a method to estimate hourly rainfall based on data from the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI). Rainfall measurements from about 350 weather stations from 2010-2014 served as ground truth for calibration and validation. SEVIRI and weather station data were used to train neural networks that allowed the estimation of rainfall area and rainfall quantities over all times of the day. The results revealed that 60 % of recorded rainfall events were correctly classified by the model (probability of detection, POD). However, the false alarm ratio (FAR) was high (0.80), leading to a Heidke skill score (HSS) of 0.18. Estimated hourly rainfall quantities were estimated with an average hourly correlation of ρ = 0. 33 and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.72. The correlation increased with temporal aggregation to 0.52 (daily), 0.67 (weekly) and 0.71 (monthly). The main weakness was the overestimation of rainfall events. The model results were compared to the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) of the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission. Despite being a comparably simple approach, the presented MSG-based rainfall retrieval outperformed GPM IMERG in terms of rainfall area detection: GPM IMERG had a considerably lower POD. The HSS was not significantly different compared to the MSG-based retrieval due to a lower FAR of GPM IMERG. There were no further significant differences between the MSG-based retrieval and GPM IMERG in terms of correlation with the observed rainfall quantities. The MSG-based retrieval, however, provides rainfall in a higher spatial resolution. Though estimating rainfall from satellite data remains challenging, especially at high temporal resolutions, this study showed promising results

  2. The analysis of the possibility of using 10-minute rainfall series to determine the maximum rainfall amount with 5 minutes duration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaźmierczak, Bartosz; Wartalska, Katarzyna; Wdowikowski, Marcin; Kotowski, Andrzej

    2017-11-01

    Modern scientific research in the area of heavy rainfall analysis regarding to the sewerage design indicates the need to develop and use probabilistic rain models. One of the issues that remains to be resolved is the length of the shortest amount of rain to be analyzed. It is commonly believed that the best time is 5 minutes, while the least rain duration measured by the national services is often 10 or even 15 minutes. Main aim of this paper is to present the difference between probabilistic rainfall models results given from rainfall time series including and excluding 5 minutes rainfall duration. Analysis were made for long-time period from 1961-2010 on polish meteorological station Legnica. To develop best fitted to measurement rainfall data probabilistic model 4 probabilistic distributions were used. Results clearly indicates that models including 5 minutes rainfall duration remains more appropriate to use.

  3. Optimization of the time series NDVI-rainfall relationship using linear mixed-effects modeling for the anti-desertification area in the Beijing and Tianjin sandstorm source region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jin; Sun, Tao; Fu, Anmin; Xu, Hao; Wang, Xinjie

    2018-05-01

    Degradation in drylands is a critically important global issue that threatens ecosystem and environmental in many ways. Researchers have tried to use remote sensing data and meteorological data to perform residual trend analysis and identify human-induced vegetation changes. However, complex interactions between vegetation and climate, soil units and topography have not yet been considered. Data used in the study included annual accumulated Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) 250 m normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from 2002 to 2013, accumulated rainfall from September to August, digital elevation model (DEM) and soil units. This paper presents linear mixed-effect (LME) modeling methods for the NDVI-rainfall relationship. We developed linear mixed-effects models that considered the random effects of sample points nested in soil units for nested two-level modeling and single-level modeling of soil units and sample points, respectively. Additionally, three functions, including the exponential function (exp), the power function (power), and the constant plus power function (CPP), were tested to remove heterogeneity, and an additional three correlation structures, including the first-order autoregressive structure [AR(1)], a combination of first-order autoregressive and moving average structures [ARMA(1,1)] and the compound symmetry structure (CS), were used to address the spatiotemporal correlations. It was concluded that the nested two-level model considering both heteroscedasticity with (CPP) and spatiotemporal correlation with [ARMA(1,1)] showed the best performance (AMR = 0.1881, RMSE = 0.2576, adj- R 2 = 0.9593). Variations between soil units and sample points that may have an effect on the NDVI-rainfall relationship should be included in model structures, and linear mixed-effects modeling achieves this in an effective and accurate way.

  4. EFFECT OF RAINFALL INTENSITY AND ENERGY ON GULLY ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Also the galling impact of soil erosion on the study locations which were observed to have biophysical and socio-economic ramifications were looked at. Farming is the dominant land use of the area intensifies in two orders of magnitude annually. Also, the high rainfall belts of the study area, frail soil type, undulating ...

  5. Identification of homogeneous rainfall regimes in parts of Western ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    ... afforestation and eco-system management. Therefore, it is essential to understand rainfall distribution and its variation in relevance to such activities. The present study is an attempt to gain in-depth understanding in this direction. The study area comprises of one coastal district and its adjoining areas in Karnataka State.

  6. Evaluation of critical storm duration rainfall estimates used in flood ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The results showed that the RMLA&SI approach can be considered as the preferred DDF relationship in future design flood estimations. The results also showed that a direct relationship exists between the catchment area and TC, thus ARFs can be explicitly expressed in terms of only the catchment area. Keywords: Rainfall ...

  7. The Role of Rainfall Variability in Reservoir Storage Management at ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Bheema

    The objective is to develop functional hydrological relationship between (rainfall, inflow, reservoir storage and turbine releases) over the dam. This will provide scientific basis for operational decisions which can lead to optimum power plant utilization. 1.1. The Study Area. The study area is the Shiroro dam reservoir.

  8. Satellite rainfall retrieval by logistic regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiu, Long S.

    1986-01-01

    The potential use of logistic regression in rainfall estimation from satellite measurements is investigated. Satellite measurements provide covariate information in terms of radiances from different remote sensors.The logistic regression technique can effectively accommodate many covariates and test their significance in the estimation. The outcome from the logistical model is the probability that the rainrate of a satellite pixel is above a certain threshold. By varying the thresholds, a rainrate histogram can be obtained, from which the mean and the variant can be estimated. A logistical model is developed and applied to rainfall data collected during GATE, using as covariates the fractional rain area and a radiance measurement which is deduced from a microwave temperature-rainrate relation. It is demonstrated that the fractional rain area is an important covariate in the model, consistent with the use of the so-called Area Time Integral in estimating total rain volume in other studies. To calibrate the logistical model, simulated rain fields generated by rainfield models with prescribed parameters are needed. A stringent test of the logistical model is its ability to recover the prescribed parameters of simulated rain fields. A rain field simulation model which preserves the fractional rain area and lognormality of rainrates as found in GATE is developed. A stochastic regression model of branching and immigration whose solutions are lognormally distributed in some asymptotic limits has also been developed.

  9. Rainfall model investigation and scenario analyses of the effect of government reforestation policy on seasonal rainfalls: A case study from Northern Thailand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duangdai, Eakkapong; Likasiri, Chulin

    2017-03-01

    In this work, 4 models for predicting rainfall amounts are investigated and compared using Northern Thailand's seasonal rainfall data for 1973-2008. Two models, global temperature, forest area and seasonal rainfall (TFR) and modified TFR based on a system of differential equations, give the relationships between global temperature, Northern Thailand's forest cover and seasonal rainfalls in the region. The other two models studied are time series and Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) models. All models are validated using the k-fold cross validation method with the resulting errors being 0.971233, 0.740891, 2.376415 and 2.430891 for time series, ARMA, TFR and modified TFR models, respectively. Under Business as Usual (BaU) scenario, seasonal rainfalls in Northern Thailand are projected through the year 2020 using all 4 models. TFR and modified TFR models are also used to further analyze how global temperature rise and government reforestation policy affect seasonal rainfalls in the region. Rainfall projections obtained via the two models are also compared with those from the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) under IS92a scenario. Results obtained through a mathematical model for global temperature, forest area and seasonal rainfall show that the higher the forest cover, the less fluctuation there is between rainy-season and summer rainfalls. Moreover, growth in forest cover also correlates with an increase in summer rainfalls. An investigation into the relationship between main crop productions and rainfalls in dry and rainy seasons indicates that if the rainy-season rainfall is high, that year's main-crop rice production will decrease but the second-crop rice, maize, sugarcane and soybean productions will increase in the following year.

  10. Analysis on the Critical Rainfall Value For Predicting Large Scale Landslides Caused by Heavy Rainfall In Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsai, Kuang-Jung; Chiang, Jie-Lun; Lee, Ming-Hsi; Chen, Yie-Ruey

    2017-04-01

    Analysis on the Critical Rainfall Value For Predicting Large Scale Landslides Caused by Heavy Rainfall In Taiwan. Kuang-Jung Tsai 1, Jie-Lun Chiang 2,Ming-Hsi Lee 2, Yie-Ruey Chen 1, 1Department of Land Management and Development, Chang Jung Christian Universityt, Tainan, Taiwan. 2Department of Soil and Water Conservation, National Pingtung University of Science and Technology, Pingtung, Taiwan. ABSTRACT The accumulated rainfall amount was recorded more than 2,900mm that were brought by Morakot typhoon in August, 2009 within continuous 3 days. Very serious landslides, and sediment related disasters were induced by this heavy rainfall event. The satellite image analysis project conducted by Soil and Water Conservation Bureau after Morakot event indicated that more than 10,904 sites of landslide with total sliding area of 18,113ha were found by this project. At the same time, all severe sediment related disaster areas are also characterized based on their disaster type, scale, topography, major bedrock formations and geologic structures during the period of extremely heavy rainfall events occurred at the southern Taiwan. Characteristics and mechanism of large scale landslide are collected on the basis of the field investigation technology integrated with GPS/GIS/RS technique. In order to decrease the risk of large scale landslides on slope land, the strategy of slope land conservation, and critical rainfall database should be set up and executed as soon as possible. Meanwhile, study on the establishment of critical rainfall value used for predicting large scale landslides induced by heavy rainfall become an important issue which was seriously concerned by the government and all people live in Taiwan. The mechanism of large scale landslide, rainfall frequency analysis ,sediment budge estimation and river hydraulic analysis under the condition of extremely climate change during the past 10 years would be seriously concerned and recognized as a required issue by this

  11. Development of gamma spectroscopy employing NaI(Tl) detector 3 inch x 3 inch and readout electronic of flash-ADC/FPGA-based technology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hai, Vo Hong [HCMC-National Univ., Hochiminh City (Viet Nam). Inst. of Nuclear Physics; Ton Duc Thang Univ., Ho Chi Minh City (Viet Nam). Div. of Nuclear Physics; Hung, Nguyen Quoc [HCMC-National Univ., Hochiminh City (Viet Nam). Inst. of Nuclear Physics; Khai, Bui Tuan [Osaka Univ. (Japan). Dept. of Physics

    2015-05-15

    n this article the development of a gamma spectroscopy system is described using a scintillation detector NaI(Tl) of 3 inch x 3 inch. The readout electronic for the spectroscopy is built from the fast analog-digital conversion of Flash Analog-Digital Converter (Flash-ADC) 250 MHz - 8 bits resolution, and the embedded Field-Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) technology. The embedded VHSIC Hardware Description Language (VHDL) code for FPGA is built in such a way that it works as a multi channel analyser (MCA) with 4096 Digital Charge Integration (DCI) channels. A pulse generator with frequency varying from Hz up to 12 kHz is used to evaluate the time response of the system. Two standard radioisotope sources of {sup 133}Ba and {sup 152}Eu with multi gamma energies ranging from several tens keV to MeV are used to evaluate the linearity and energy resolution of the system.

  12. Development of 52 inch last stage blade for steam turbine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kadoya, Yoshiki; Harada, Masakatsu; Watanabe, Eiichiro

    1985-01-01

    Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd. has developed the last stage blades with 1320 mm length for a 1800 rpm LP turbine, and the verification by rotating vibration test using actual blades was finished, thus the blades were completed. In a nuclear power plant with an A-PWR of 3800 MW thermal output, the 1350 MW steam turbine has one HP turbine and three LP turbines coupled in tandem, and the optimum last stage blades for the LP turbines became the 1320 mm blades. The completion of these blades largely contributes to the improvement of thermal efficiency and the increase of generator output in large nuclear power plants, and has the possibility to decrease three LP turbines to two in 900 MW plants, which reduces the construction cost. The velocity energy of steam coming out of last stage blades is abandoned as exhaust loss in a condenser, which is the largest loss in a turbine. The increase of exhaust area using long blades reduces this loss. The economy of the 1320 mm blades, the features of the 1320 mm blades, the aerodynamic design and its verification, the prevention of the erosion of the 1320 mm blades due to wet steam, the strength design, the anti-vibration design and its verification, and the CAD/CAM system are reported. (Kako, I.)

  13. Am/Cm TTR testing - 3/8-inch glass beads evaluation in CIM5

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Witt, D. C.

    2000-01-01

    To facilitate the procurement and handling of the glass former for Am/Cm vitrification in the F-Canyon MPPF, 1/4 inch and 3/8 inch diameter glass beads were purchased from Corning for evaluation in the 5 inch Cylindrical Induction Melter (CIM5). Prior to evaluating the beads in the CIM5, tests were conducted in the Drain Tube Test Stand (DTTS) with 1/4 inch beads, 3/8 inch beads, and a 50/50 mixture to identify any process concerns. Results of the DTTS tests are summarized in Attachment 1. A somewhat larger volume expansion was experienced in all three DTTS runs as compared to a standard run using cullet. Further testing of the use of glass beads in the CIM5 was requested by the Design Authority as Task 1.02 of Technical Task Request 99-MNSS/SE-006. Since the Technical Task Plan was not yet approved, the completion of this task was conducted under an authorization request approved by the SRTC Laboratory Director, S. Wood. This request is included as Attachment 2

  14. Applying Spatially Distributed Rainfall to a Hydrological Model in a Tropical Watershed, Manoa Watershed, in Hawaii

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Y. F.; Tsang, Y. P.

    2017-12-01

    Rainfall in Hawaii is characterized with high spatial and temporal variability. In the south side of Oahu, the Manoa watershed, with an area of 11 km2, has the annual maximum rainfall of 3900mm and the minimum rainfall of 1000 mm. Despite this high spatial heterogeneity, the rain gage network seems insufficiently capture this pattern. When simulating stream flow and predicting floods with hydrological models in Hawaii, the model performance is often unsatisfactory because of inadequate representation of rainfall data. Longman et al. (in prep.) have developed the spatially distributed daily rainfall across the Hawaiian Islands by applying ordinary kriging, yet these data have not been applied to hydrological models. In this study, we used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to assess the streamflow simulation by applying spatially-distributed rainfall in the Manoa watershed. We first used point daily-rainfall at Lyon Arboretum from National Center of Environmental Information (NCEI) as the uniform rainfall input. Secondly, we summarized sub-watershed mean rainfall from the daily spatial-statistical rainfall. Both rainfall data are available from 1999 to 2014. The SWAT was set up for five-year warm-up, nine-year calibration, and two-year validation. The model parameters were calibrated and validated with four U.S. Geological Survey stream gages. We compared the calibrated watershed parameters, characteristics, and assess the streamflow hydrographs from these two rainfall inputs. The differences and improvement of using spatially distributed rainfall input in SWAT were discussed. In addition to improving the model by the representation of rainfall, this study helped us having a better understanding of the watershed hydrological response in Hawaii.

  15. Chapman Conference on Rainfall Fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, V. K.

    The Chapman Conference on Rainfall Fields, sponsored by AGU, was the first of its kind; it was devoted to strengthening scientific interaction between the North American and Latin American geophysics communities. It was hosted by Universidad Simon Bolivar and Instituto Internacional de Estudios Avanzados, in Caracas, Venezuela, during March 24-27, 1986. A total of 36 scientists from Latin America, the United States, Canada, and Europe participated. The conference, which was convened by I. Rodriguez-Iturbe (Universidad Simon Bolivar) and V. K. Gupta (University of Mississippi, University), brought together hydrologists, meteorologists, and mathematicians/statisticians in the name of enhancing an interdisciplinary focus on rainfall research.

  16. Rainfall simulation for environmental application

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shriner, D.S.; Abner, C.H.; Mann, L.K.

    1977-08-01

    Rain simulation systems have been designed for field and greenhouse studies which have the capability of reproducing the physical and chemical characteristics of natural rainfall. The systems permit the simulation of variations in rainfall and droplet size similar to that of natural precipitation. The systems are completely automatic and programmable, allowing unattended operation for periods of up to one week, and have been used to expose not only vegetation but also soils and engineering materials, making them versatile tools for studies involving simulated precipitation.

  17. Comparision of Incidental Reflection From Containerized Maintenance/Housekeeping Solutions and One Inch of Water

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chapman, Bryan Scott [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); MacQuigg, Michael Robert [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Wysong, Andrew Russell [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2016-12-15

    This document addresses the incidental reflector reactivity worth of containerized maintenance/housekeeping fluids for use in PF-4 at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The intent of the document is to analyze containerized maintenance/housekeeping fluids which will be analyzed as water that may be present under normal conditions of an operation. The reactivity worth is compared to the reactivity worth due to I-inch of close-fitting 4n water reflection and I-inch of close-fitting radial water reflection. Both have been used to bound incidental reflection by 2-liter bottles in criticality safety evaluations. The conclusion is that, when the maintenance/housekeeping fluids are containerized the reactivity increase from a configuration which is bounding of normal conditions (up to eight bottles modeled with 2-liters of solution at varying diameter) is bound by I-inch of close fitting 4n water relection.

  18. Radar rainfall estimation for the identification of debris-flow precipitation thresholds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marra, Francesco; Nikolopoulos, Efthymios I.; Creutin, Jean-Dominique; Borga, Marco

    2014-05-01

    Identification of rainfall thresholds for the prediction of debris-flow occurrence is a common approach for warning procedures. Traditionally the debris-flow triggering rainfall is derived from the closest available raingauge. However, the spatial and temporal variability of intense rainfall on mountainous areas, where debris flows take place, may lead to large uncertainty in point-based estimates. Nikolopoulos et al. (2014) have shown that this uncertainty translates into a systematic underestimation of the rainfall thresholds, leading to a step degradation of the performances of the rainfall threshold for identification of debris flows occurrence under operational conditions. A potential solution to this limitation lies on use of rainfall estimates from weather radar. Thanks to their high spatial and temporal resolutions, these estimates offer the advantage of providing rainfall information over the actual debris flow location. The aim of this study is to analyze the value of radar precipitation estimations for the identification of debris flow precipitation thresholds. Seven rainfall events that triggered debris flows in the Adige river basin (Eastern Italian Alps) are analyzed using data from a dense raingauge network and a C-Band weather radar. Radar data are elaborated by using a set of correction algorithms specifically developed for weather radar rainfall application in mountainous areas. Rainfall thresholds for the triggering of debris flows are identified in the form of average intensity-duration power law curves using a frequentist approach by using both radar rainfall estimates and raingauge data. Sampling uncertainty associated to the derivation of the thresholds is assessed by using a bootstrap technique (Peruccacci et al. 2012). Results show that radar-based rainfall thresholds are largely exceeding those obtained by using raingauge data. Moreover, the differences between the two thresholds may be related to the spatial characteristics (i.e., spatial

  19. The alerting system for hydrogeological hazard in Lombardy Region, northern Italy: rainfall thresholds triggering debris-flows and "equivalent rainfall" method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cucchi, A.; Valsecchi, I. Q.; Alberti, M.; Fassi, P.; Molari, M.; Mannucci, G.

    2015-01-01

    The Functional Centre (CFMR) of the Civil Protection of the Lombardy Region, North Italy, has the main task of monitoring and alerting, particularly with respect to natural hazards. The procedure of early warning for hydrogeological hazard is based on a comparison of two quantities: thresholds and rainfall, both referred to a defined area and an exact time interval. The CFMR studied 52 landslide events (1987-2003) in Medium-Low Valtellina and derived a model of the critical detachment rainfall, in function of the local slope and the Curve Number CN (an empirical parameter related with the land cover and the hydrological conditions of the soil): it's physically consistent and allows a geographically targeted alerting. Moreover, rainfall thresholds were associated with a typical probability of exceedance. The processing of rainfall data is carried out through the "equivalent rainfall" method, that allows to take into account the antecedent moisture condition of the soil: in fact the hazard is substantially greater when the soil is near to saturation. The method was developed from the CN method and considers the local CN and the observed rainfall of the previous 5 days. The obtained value for the local equivalent rainfall, that combines rainfall (observed and forecasted) and local soil characteristics, is a better parameter for the evaluation of the hydrogeological hazard. The comparison between equivalent rainfall and thresholds allows to estimate the local hydrogeological hazard, displayed through hazard maps, and consequently to provide a reliable alerting activity (even localized to limited portions of the region).

  20. Characteristics of rainfall during tropical cyclone periods in Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. K. W. Cheung

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Due to the Central Mountain Range with an elevation up to about 4 km, the amount and distribution of rainfall in Taiwan associated with typhoons or tropical cyclones (TCs depends not only on the distribution of convection within the TCs (internal structure and influences from monsoon-scale environmental flow, but also on the orographic effect. This study analyzes the spatial and temporal characteristics of rainfall associated with 62 TC cases that affected Taiwan by using observations from the 371 automatic rain stations available in the period 1989–2002. It is found from the climatology maps that highly different rainfall distributions occurred for TCs that approached the Taiwan area from different directions. By performing objective clustering analysis of the rainfall time series of all the rain gauges, several characteristic temporal rainfall profiles are obtained. The geographic distribution of rain gauges that possess a particular temporal profile is also consistent with the possible TC track types that bring maximum rain to the Taiwan area at different times.

    Based on data in the 1989–2002 period, the development of a TC rainfall climatology-persistence (CLIPER model is described. CLIPER is an optimized combination of climatology and persistence with different relative weighting for different forecast periods. Independent cases (other than the model development database during 2003–2004 are used to validate the model. Objective measures like equitable threat score and bias score show that CLIPER's skill is acceptable for practical applications for 24-h rain threshold below 100 mm. However, the underestimation bias for more heavy rainfall is serious and CLIPER seems to have better performance for the northwestern Taiwan than for the other locations. Future directions for improvement of the CLIPER model are discussed.

  1. Distributed modelling of shallow landslides triggered by intense rainfall

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. B. Crosta

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Hazard assessment of shallow landslides represents an important aspect of land management in mountainous areas. Among all the methods proposed in the literature, physically based methods are the only ones that explicitly includes the dynamic factors that control landslide triggering (rainfall pattern, land-use. For this reason, they allow forecasting both the temporal and the spatial distribution of shallow landslides. Physically based methods for shallow landslides are based on the coupling of the infinite slope stability analysis with hydrological models. Three different grid-based distributed hydrological models are presented in this paper: a steady state model, a transient "piston-flow" wetting front model, and a transient diffusive model. A comparative test of these models was performed to simulate landslide occurred during a rainfall event (27–28 June 1997 that triggered hundreds of shallow landslides within Lecco province (central Southern Alps, Italy. In order to test the potential for a completely distributed model for rainfall-triggered landslides, radar detected rainfall intensity has been used. A new procedure for quantitative evaluation of distributed model performance is presented and used in this paper. The diffusive model results in the best model for the simulation of shallow landslide triggering after a rainfall event like the one that we have analysed. Finally, radar data available for the June 1997 event permitted greatly improving the simulation. In particular, radar data allowed to explain the non-uniform distribution of landslides within the study area.

  2. Where do forests influence rainfall?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang-Erlandsson, Lan; van der Ent, Ruud; Fetzer, Ingo; Keys, Patrick; Savenije, Hubert; Gordon, Line

    2017-04-01

    Forests play a major role in hydrology. Not only by immediate control of soil moisture and streamflow, but also by regulating climate through evaporation (i.e., transpiration, interception, and soil evaporation). The process of evaporation travelling through the atmosphere and returning as precipitation on land is known as moisture recycling. Whether evaporation is recycled depends on wind direction and geography. Moisture recycling and forest change studies have primarily focused on either one region (e.g. the Amazon), or one biome type (e.g. tropical humid forests). We will advance this via a systematic global inter-comparison of forest change impacts on precipitation depending on both biome type and geographic location. The rainfall effects are studied for three contemporary forest changes: afforestation, deforestation, and replacement of mature forest by forest plantations. Furthermore, as there are indications in the literature that moisture recycling in some places intensifies during dry years, we will also compare the rainfall impacts of forest change between wet and dry years. We model forest change effects on evaporation using the global hydrological model STEAM and trace precipitation changes using the atmospheric moisture tracking scheme WAM-2layers. This research elucidates the role of geographical location of forest change driven modifications on rainfall as a function of the type of forest change and climatic conditions. These knowledge gains are important at a time of both rapid forest and climate change. Our conclusions nuance our understanding of how forests regulate climate and pinpoint hotspot regions for forest-rainfall coupling.

  3. Spatial Interpolation of Rainfall Erosivity Using Artificial Neural Networks for Southern Brazil Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michel Castro Moreira

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Water erosion is the process of disaggregation and transport of sediments, and rainfall erosivity is a numerical value that expresses the erosive capacity of rain. The scarcity of information on rainfall erosivity makes it difficult or impossible to use to estimate losses occasioned by the erosive process. The objective of this study was to develop Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs for spatial interpolation of the monthly and annual values of rainfall erosivity at any location in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, and a software that enables the use of these networks in a simple and fast manner. This experiment used 103 rainfall stations in Rio Grande do Sul and their surrounding area to generate synthetic rainfall series on the software ClimaBR 2.0. Rainfall erosivity was determined by summing the values of the EI30 and KE >25 indexes, considering two methodologies for obtaining the kinetic energy of rainfall. With these values of rainfall erosivity and latitude, longitude, and altitude of the stations, the ANNs were trained and tested for spatializations of rainfall erosivity. To facilitate the use of the ANNs, a computer program was generated, called netErosividade RS, which makes feasible the use of ANNs to estimate the values of rainfall erosivity for any location in the state of Rio Grande do Sul.

  4. Improvement of Statistical Typhoon Rainfall Forecasting with ANN-Based Southwest Monsoon Enhancement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tsung-Yi Pan

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Typhoon Morakot 2009, with significant southwest monsoon flow, produced a record-breaking rainfall of 2361 mm in 48 hours. This study hopes to improve a statistical typhoon rainfall forecasting method used over the mountain region of Taiwan via an artificial neural network based southwest monsoon enhancement (ANNSME model. Rainfall data collected at two mountain weather stations, ALiShan and YuShan, are analyzed to establish the relation to the southwest monsoon moisture flux which is calculated at a designated sea area southwest of Taiwan. The results show that the moisture flux, with southwest monsoon flow, transported water vapor during the landfall periods of Typhoons Mindulle, Bilis, Fungwong, Kalmaegi, Haitaing and Morakot. Based on the moisture flux, a linear regression is used to identify an effective value of moisture flux as the threshold flux which can enhance mountain rainfall in southwestern Taiwan. In particular, a feedforward neural network (FNN is applied to estimate the residuals from the linear model to the differences between simulated rainfalls by a typhoon rainfall climatology model (TRCM and observations. Consequently, the ANNSME model integrates the effective moisture flux, linear rainfall model and the FNN for residuals. Even with very limited training cases, our results indicate that the ANNSME model is robust and suitable for improvement of TRCM rainfall prediction. The improved prediction of the total rainfall and of the multiple rainfall peaks is important for emergency operation.

  5. Effect of Topography on Rainfall Variability in the Blue Nile River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muluneh, S. H.; Bitew, M. M.; Gebremichael, M.

    2012-12-01

    The effect of topography on rainfall variability in the East Africa highlands is one the poorly studied rainfall processes. We deployed 70 rain gauges and 5 complete weather sensors along four transects in the complex terrain region of the Blue Nile River Basin. The transects span along elevation ranges from about 600 m in lowland areas around the border between Sudan and Ethiopia to 4000 m in the central Ethiopia mountains. A summer monsoon rainfall of 2012 recorded at high temporal scale from the newly deployed and existing rain gauges along the transects was used for this study. Based on the data obtained from the sensors, we present the effect of topography on the spatial and temporal variability of rainfall. The results on the rainfall variability, effect of topography on rainfall rate and space time variability of rainfall will have significant importance for the understanding of rainfall processes, for evaluation of accuracy of satellite based rainfall estimates, for designing of ways of merging satellite rainfall estimates and ground based observations given sparsely distributed rain gauges.

  6. Extreme rainfall events in the Sinai Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baldi, Marina; Amin, Doaa; Zayed, Islam Sabry Al; Dalu, Giovanni A.

    2017-04-01

    In the present paper Authors discuss results from the first phase of a project carried out in the framework of the Agreement on Scientific Cooperation between the Academy of Scientific Research and Technology of Egypt (ASRT) and the National Research Council of Italy (CNR). As in ancient times, today heavy rainfall, often resulting in flash floods, affects Egypt, not only in the coastal areas along the Mediterranean Sea and the Red Sea, but also in arid and semi-arid areas such as Upper Egypt (Luxor, Aswan, and Assiut) and in the Sinai Peninsula, and their distribution has been modified due to the current climate variability. These episodes, although rare, can be catastrophic in regions characterized by a very low annual total amount of precipitation, with large impacts on lives, infrastructures, properties and last but not least, to the great cultural heritage of the Country. Flash flood episodes in the Sinai Peninsula result from heavy, sudden, and short duration rainfall, influenced also by the peculiar orography and soil conditions of the Region, and represent a risk for the population, infrastructures, properties, and sectors like industry and agriculture. On the other hand, flash floods in Sinai and southern/southeastern Egypt represent a potential source for non-conventional fresh water resources. In particular flash flood water, which usually drains into the Gulf of Suez and the Gulf of Aqaba, can fulfill a non-negligible amount of water demand, and/or recharge shallow groundwater aquifers, and the harvested rainfall can represent a source of water for rain-fed agriculture in the region. A general overview of the Sinai current climate is presented, including a climatology of extreme rainfalls events in the last decades. In addition, few selected heavy rainfall episodes which occurred in the Sinai in recent years have been analyzed and their characteristics and links to larger scale circulation will be discussed. Results of the study provide a better

  7. Rainfall control of debris-flow triggering in the Réal Torrent, Southern French Prealps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bel, Coraline; Liébault, Frédéric; Navratil, Oldrich; Eckert, Nicolas; Bellot, Hervé; Fontaine, Firmin; Laigle, Dominique

    2017-08-01

    This paper investigates the occurrence of debris flow due to rainfall forcing in the Réal Torrent, a very active debris flow-prone catchment in the Southern French Prealps. The study is supported by a 4-year record of flow responses and rainfall events, from three high-frequency monitoring stations equipped with geophones, flow stage sensors, digital cameras, and rain gauges measuring rainfall at 5-min intervals. The classic method of rainfall intensity-duration (ID) threshold was used, and a specific emphasis was placed on the objective identification of rainfall events, as well as on the discrimination of flow responses observed above the ID threshold. The results show that parameters used to identify rainfall events significantly affect the ID threshold and are likely to explain part of the threshold variability reported in the literature. This is especially the case regarding the minimum duration of rain interruption (MDRI) between two distinct rainfall events. In the Réal Torrent, a 3-h MDRI appears to be representative of the local rainfall regime. A systematic increase in the ID threshold with drainage area was also observed from the comparison of the three stations, as well as from the compilation of data from experimental debris-flow catchments. A logistic regression used to separate flow responses above the ID threshold, revealed that the best predictors are the 5-min maximum rainfall intensity, the 48-h antecedent rainfall, the rainfall amount and the number of days elapsed since the end of winter (used as a proxy of sediment supply). This emphasizes the critical role played by short intense rainfall sequences that are only detectable using high time-resolution rainfall records. It also highlights the significant influence of antecedent conditions and the seasonal fluctuations of sediment supply.

  8. Modelling Ecuador's rainfall distribution according to geographical characteristics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tobar, Vladimiro; Wyseure, Guido

    2017-04-01

    It is known that rainfall is affected by terrain characteristics and some studies had focussed on its distribution over complex terrain. Ecuador's temporal and spatial rainfall distribution is affected by its location on the ITCZ, the marine currents in the Pacific, the Amazon rainforest, and the Andes mountain range. Although all these factors are important, we think that the latter one may hold a key for modelling spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall. The study considered 30 years of monthly data from 319 rainfall stations having at least 10 years of data available. The relatively low density of stations and their location in accessible sites near to main roads or rivers, leave large and important areas ungauged, making it not appropriate to rely on traditional interpolation techniques to estimate regional rainfall for water balance. The aim of this research was to come up with a useful model for seasonal rainfall distribution in Ecuador based on geographical characteristics to allow its spatial generalization. The target for modelling was the seasonal rainfall, characterized by nine percentiles for each one of the 12 months of the year that results in 108 response variables, later on reduced to four principal components comprising 94% of the total variability. Predictor variables for the model were: geographic coordinates, elevation, main wind effects from the Amazon and Coast, Valley and Hill indexes, and average and maximum elevation above the selected rainfall station to the east and to the west, for each one of 18 directions (50-135°, by 5°) adding up to 79 predictors. A multiple linear regression model by the Elastic-net algorithm with cross-validation was applied for each one of the PC as response to select the most important ones from the 79 predictor variables. The Elastic-net algorithm deals well with collinearity problems, while allowing variable selection in a blended approach between the Ridge and Lasso regression. The model fitting

  9. Evaluation of short-period rainfall estimates from Kalpana-1 satellite ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    0 software, has been used for the evaluation purpose. The results show that the new IMSRA technique is closer to the TMPA rainfall estimate, in terms of areal spread, geometric shape and location of rainfall areas, as compared to the GPI ...

  10. Ground-water resources of the Bisbee-Naco Area, Cochise County, Arizona

    Science.gov (United States)

    Littin, G.R.

    1987-01-01

    The Bisbee-Naco Area is in southeastern Arizona and northeastern Sonora, Mexico. Annual rainfall averages about 17 inches. The basin fill is the principal aquifer and supplies about 95% of all water for domestic purposes. The total groundwater pumped in 1985 was about 6,500 acre/ft. Of that amount, 2,200 acre-ft was used for domestic use and the rest was used for irrigation and livestock. Domestic use is expected to increase 20% by the year 2000. Water levels at the Bisbee well field have remained virtually unchanged since 1953, but water levels have declined about 25% in areas east and southeast of the well field. The native groundwater in the area is a calcium bicarbonate type and generally is suitable for domestic use. Groundwater down-gradient from a mine tailings pond contains 650 to 850 mg/l of sulfate. Recharge occurs naturally through direct infiltration or rainfall along the mountain fronts and through subsurface inflow from adjacent areas. Some water is recharged through direct infiltration from a mine tailings pond, sewage ponds, septic systems, and urban runoff. The potential for contamination exists from mine tailings, sewage, and urban runoff. No other sources of drinking water are readily available in the immediate area. Potential alternate sources of drinking water are the aquifers underlying Sulphur Spring Valley and San Pedro River valley. (Author 's abstract)

  11. Downscaling of rainfall in Peru using Generalised Linear Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergin, E.; Buytaert, W.; Onof, C.; Wheater, H.

    2012-04-01

    The assessment of water resources in the Peruvian Andes is particularly important because the Peruvian economy relies heavily on agriculture. Much of the agricultural land is situated near to the coast and relies on large quantities of water for irrigation. The simulation of synthetic rainfall series is thus important to evaluate the reliability of water supplies for current and future scenarios of climate change. In addition to water resources concerns, there is also a need to understand extreme heavy rainfall events, as there was significant flooding in Machu Picchu in 2010. The region exhibits a reduction of rainfall in 1983, associated with El Nino Southern Oscillation (SOI). NCEP Reanalysis 1 data was used to provide weather variable data. Correlations were calculated for several weather variables using raingauge data in the Andes. These were used to evaluate teleconnections and provide suggested covariates for the downscaling model. External covariates used in the model include sea level pressure and sea surface temperature over the region of the Humboldt Current. Relative humidity and temperature data over the region are also included. The SOI teleconnection is also used. Covariates are standardised using observations for 1960-1990. The GlimClim downscaling model was used to fit a stochastic daily rainfall model to 13 sites in the Peruvian Andes. Results indicate that the model is able to reproduce rainfall statistics well, despite the large area used. Although the correlation between individual rain gauges is generally quite low, all sites are affected by similar weather patterns. This is an assumption of the GlimClim downscaling model. Climate change scenarios are considered using several GCM outputs for the A1B scenario. GCM data was corrected for bias using 1960-1990 outputs from the 20C3M scenario. Rainfall statistics for current and future scenarios are compared. The region shows an overall decrease in mean rainfall but with an increase in variance.

  12. Evaluation of 3 Inch SN-219 Failure and S and SX Tank Farm Saltwell Piping

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    ELSEN, J.J.

    2000-01-01

    Evaluation of direct buried piping currently in use or designated for future Saltwell pumping in S and SX Farms. Documented evaluation of failed S-103 saltwell pumping transfer line 3 inch SN-219. This evaluation is intended to reflect current status of Saltwell piping, when taken in context with referenced documents

  13. Full scale ambient water flow tests of a 10-inch emergency release coupling for LNG transfer

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Putte, L.J. van der; Webber, T.; Bokhorst, E. van; Revell, C.

    2016-01-01

    For LNG transfer in ship-to-ship and ship-to-shore configurations emergency release couplings (F.RC) in combination with loading arms and multi-composite hoses are applied In view of a demand for increasing transfer flow rates in offshore LNG applications a 10-inch ERC has been developed intended

  14. Interim results: fines recycle testing using the 4-inch diameter primary graphite burner

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Palmer, W.B.

    1975-05-01

    The results of twenty-two HTGR primary burner runs in which graphite fines were recycled pneumatically to the 4-inch diameter pilot-plant primary fluidized-bed burner are described. The result of the tests showed that zero fines accumulation can easily be achieved while operating at plant equivalent burn rates. (U.S.)

  15. Multilayer perceptron neural network for downscaling rainfall in arid ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    A multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network has been proposed in the present study for the downscaling of rainfall in the data scarce arid region of Baluchistan province of Pakistan, which is considered as one of the most vulnerable areas of Pakistan to climate change. The National Center for Environmental Prediction ...

  16. Key pluvial parameters in assessing rainfall erosivity in the south ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Monica Dumitraşcu

    2017-06-19

    Jun 19, 2017 ... study area. The selection and the assemblage of the most representative weather stations was performed tak- ing into account quantitative and qualitative cri- teria such as: altitude, ... methods, of which, the most applicable is based on torrential ..... Arnoldus H M J 1980 An approximation of the rainfall factor.

  17. Movement response patterns of livestock to rainfall variability in the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Livestock movement patterns indicated that forage is the motivation for winter movements and water is the motivation for summer. The movement followed a predictable ... The latter can be considered as a 'key resource' area to sustain animal numbers through critical periods of low rainfall. Overall, seasonal movement ...

  18. Assessment of Rainfall-induced Landslide Potential and Spatial Distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yie-Ruey; Tsai, Kuang-Jung; Chen, Jing-Wen; Chiang, Jie-Lun; Hsieh, Shun-Chieh; Chue, Yung-Sheng

    2016-04-01

    Recently, due to the global climate change, most of the time the rainfall in Taiwan is of short duration but with high intensity. Due to Taiwan's steep terrain, rainfall-induced landslides often occur and lead to human causalities and properties loss. Taiwan's government has invested huge reconstruction funds to the affected areas. However, after rehabilitation they still face the risk of secondary sediment disasters. Therefore, this study assesses rainfall-induced (secondary) landslide potential and spatial distribution in watershed of Southern Taiwan under extreme climate change. The study areas in this research are Baolai and Jianshan villages in the watershed of the Laonongxi River Basin in the Southern Taiwan. This study focused on the 3 years after Typhoon Morakot (2009 to 2011). During this period, the study area experienced six heavy rainfall events including five typhoons and one heavy rainfall. The genetic adaptive neural network, texture analysis and GIS were implemented in the analysis techniques for the interpretation of satellite images and to obtain surface information and hazard log data and to analyze land use change. A multivariate hazards evaluation method was applied to quantitatively analyze the weights of various natural environmental and slope development hazard factors. Furthermore, this study established a slope landslide potential assessment model and depicted a slope landslide potential diagram by using the GIS platform. The interaction between (secondary) landslide mechanism, scale, and location was analyzed using association analysis of landslide historical data and regional environmental characteristics. The results of image classification before and after six heavy rainfall events show that the values of coefficient of agreement are at medium-high level. By multivariate hazards evaluation method, geology and the effective accumulative rainfall (EAR) are the most important factors. Slope, distance from fault, aspect, land disturbance

  19. ICUD-0147 Extreme event statistics of urban pluvial floods – Return period assessment and rainfall variability impacts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tuyls, Damian Murla; Nielsen, Rasmus; Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke

    2017-01-01

    A return period assessment of urban flood has been performed and its adhered impact of rainfall variability studied over a urban drainage catchment area in Aalborg, Denmark. Recorded rainfall from 7 rain gauges has been used, located in a range of 7.5Km and for a period varying form 18-37 years....... Return period of rainfall and flood at catchment and local scale has been estimated, its derived ambiguities analysed and the variability of rain gauge based rainfall investigated regarding to flood estimation results. Results show a clear contrast between rainfall and flood return period estimates...

  20. Spatial variability and rainfall characteristics of Kerala

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    R. Narasimhan (Krishtel eMaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22

    the Palghat gap, which is about 24kms in length. The south-west monsoon current, which brings in most of the annual rainfall, gets a forced ascent at the Ghats and the windward slopes experience very heavy rainfall. However, rainfall is not uniformly distributed on the windward slopes and there are pockets of very heavy ...

  1. Stochastic modelling of daily rainfall sequences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buishand, T.A.

    1977-01-01

    Rainfall series of different climatic regions were analysed with the aim of generating daily rainfall sequences. A survey of the data is given in I, 1. When analysing daily rainfall sequences one must be aware of the following points:
    a. Seasonality. Because of seasonal variation

  2. Rainfall simulation experiments in the southwestern USA using the Walnut Gulch Rainfall Simulator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polyakov, Viktor; Stone, Jeffry; Holifield Collins, Chandra; Nearing, Mark A.; Paige, Ginger; Buono, Jared; Gomez-Pond, Rae-Landa

    2018-01-01

    This dataset contains hydrological, erosion, vegetation, ground cover, and other supplementary information from 272 rainfall simulation experiments conducted on 23 semiarid rangeland locations in Arizona and Nevada between 2002 and 2013. On 30 % of the plots, simulations were conducted up to five times during the decade of study. The rainfall was generated using the Walnut Gulch Rainfall Simulator on 2 m by 6 m plots. Simulation sites included brush and grassland areas with various degrees of disturbance by grazing, wildfire, or brush removal. This dataset advances our understanding of basic hydrological and biological processes that drive soil erosion on arid rangelands. It can be used to estimate runoff, infiltration, and erosion rates at a variety of ecological sites in the Southwestern USA. The inclusion of wildfire and brush treatment locations combined with long-term observations makes it important for studying vegetation recovery, ecological transitions, and the effect of management. It is also a valuable resource for erosion model parameterization and validation. The dataset is available from the National Agricultural Library at search/type/dataset" target="_blank">https://data.nal.usda.gov/search/type/dataset (DOI: https://doi.org/10.15482/USDA.ADC/1358583).

  3. EVALUATION OF RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELS FOR MEDITERRANEAN SUBCATCHMENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Cilek

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The development and the application of rainfall-runoff models have been a corner-stone of hydrological research for many decades. The amount of rainfall and its intensity and variability control the generation of runoff and the erosional processes operating at different scales. These interactions can be greatly variable in Mediterranean catchments with marked hydrological fluctuations. The aim of the study was to evaluate the performance of rainfall-runoff model, for rainfall-runoff simulation in a Mediterranean subcatchment. The Pan-European Soil Erosion Risk Assessment (PESERA, a simplified hydrological process-based approach, was used in this study to combine hydrological surface runoff factors. In total 128 input layers derived from data set includes; climate, topography, land use, crop type, planting date, and soil characteristics, are required to run the model. Initial ground cover was estimated from the Landsat ETM data provided by ESA. This hydrological model was evaluated in terms of their performance in Goksu River Watershed, Turkey. It is located at the Central Eastern Mediterranean Basin of Turkey. The area is approximately 2000 km2. The landscape is dominated by bare ground, agricultural and forests. The average annual rainfall is 636.4mm. This study has a significant importance to evaluate different model performances in a complex Mediterranean basin. The results provided comprehensive insight including advantages and limitations of modelling approaches in the Mediterranean environment.

  4. Rainfall estimation with TFR model using Ensemble Kalman filter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asyiqotur Rohmah, Nabila; Apriliani, Erna

    2018-03-01

    Rainfall fluctuation can affect condition of other environment, correlated with economic activity and public health. The increasing of global average temperature is influenced by the increasing of CO2 in the atmosphere, which caused climate change. Meanwhile, the forests as carbon sinks that help keep the carbon cycle and climate change mitigation. Climate change caused by rainfall intensity deviations can affect the economy of a region, and even countries. It encourages research on rainfall associated with an area of forest. In this study, the mathematics model that used is a model which describes the global temperatures, forest cover, and seasonal rainfall called the TFR (temperature, forest cover, and rainfall) model. The model will be discretized first, and then it will be estimated by the method of Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF). The result shows that the more ensembles used in estimation, the better the result is. Also, the accurateness of simulation result is influenced by measurement variable. If a variable is measurement data, the result of simulation is better.

  5. Geotechnical hazards from large earthquakes and heavy rainfalls

    CERN Document Server

    Kazama, Motoki; Lee, Wei

    2017-01-01

    This book is a collection of papers presented at the International Workshop on Geotechnical Natural Hazards held July 12–15, 2014, in Kitakyushu, Japan. The workshop was the sixth in the series of Japan–Taiwan Joint Workshops on Geotechnical Hazards from Large Earthquakes and Heavy Rainfalls, held under the auspices of the Asian Technical Committee No. 3 on Geotechnology for Natural Hazards of the International Society for Soil Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering. It was co-organized by the Japanese Geotechnical Society and the Taiwanese Geotechnical Society. The contents of this book focus on geotechnical and natural hazard-related issues in Asia such as earthquakes, tsunami, rainfall-induced debris flows, slope failures, and landslides. The book contains the latest information and mitigation technology on earthquake- and rainfall-induced geotechnical natural hazards. By dissemination of the latest state-of-the-art research in the area, the information contained in this book will help researchers, des...

  6. Christiansen Revisited: Rethinking Quantification of Uniformity in Rainfall Simulator Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Daniel; Pattison, Ian

    2016-04-01

    Rainfall simulators, whether based within a laboratory or field setting are used extensively within a number of fields of research, including plot-scale runoff, infiltration and erosion studies, irrigation and crop management and scaled investigations into urban flooding. Rainfall simulators offer a number of benefits, including the ability to create regulated and repeatable rainfall characteristics (e.g. intensity, duration, drop size distribution and kinetic energy) without relying on unpredictable natural precipitation regimes. Ensuring and quantifying spatially uniform simulated rainfall across the entirety of the plot area is of particular importance to researchers undertaking rainfall simulation. As a result, numerous studies have focused on the quantification and improvement of uniformity values. Several statistical methods for the assessment of rainfall simulator uniformity have been developed. However, the Christiansen Uniformity Coefficient (CUC) suggested by Christiansen (1942) is most frequently used. Despite this, there is no set methodology and researchers can adapt or alter factors such as the quantity, as well as the spacing, distance and location of the measuring beakers used to derive CUC values. Because CUC values are highly sensitive to the resolution of the data, i.e. the number of observations taken, many densely distributed measuring containers subjected to the same experimental conditions may generate a significantly lower CUC value than fewer, more sparsely distributed measuring containers. Thus, the simulated rainfall under a higher resolution sampling method could appear less uniform than when using a coarser resolution sampling method, despite being derived from the same initial rainfall conditions. Expressing entire plot uniformity as a single, simplified percentage value disregards valuable qualitative information about plot uniformity, such as the small-scale spatial distribution of rainfall over the plot surface and whether these

  7. Intensive rainfall recharges tropical groundwaters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jasechko, Scott; Taylor, Richard G

    2015-01-01

    Dependence upon groundwater to meet rising agricultural and domestic water needs is expected to increase substantially across the tropics where, by 2050, over half of the world’s population is projected to live. Rare, long-term groundwater-level records in the tropics indicate that groundwater recharge occurs disproportionately from heavy rainfalls exceeding a threshold. The ubiquity of this bias in tropical groundwater recharge to intensive precipitation is, however, unknown. By relating available long-term records of stable-isotope ratios of O and H in tropical precipitation (15 sites) to those of local groundwater, we reveal that groundwater recharge in the tropics is near-uniformly (14/15 sites) biased to intensive monthly rainfall, commonly exceeding the ∼70th intensity decile. Our results suggest that the intensification of precipitation brought about by global warming favours groundwater replenishment in the tropics. Nevertheless, the processes that transmit intensive rainfall to groundwater systems and enhance the resilience of tropical groundwater storage in a warming world, remain unclear. (letter)

  8. Performance of bias corrected MPEG rainfall estimate for rainfall-runoff simulation in the upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Worqlul, Abeyou W.; Ayana, Essayas K.; Maathuis, Ben H. P.; MacAlister, Charlotte; Philpot, William D.; Osorio Leyton, Javier M.; Steenhuis, Tammo S.

    2018-01-01

    In many developing countries and remote areas of important ecosystems, good quality precipitation data are neither available nor readily accessible. Satellite observations and processing algorithms are being extensively used to produce satellite rainfall products (SREs). Nevertheless, these products are prone to systematic errors and need extensive validation before to be usable for streamflow simulations. In this study, we investigated and corrected the bias of Multi-Sensor Precipitation Estimate-Geostationary (MPEG) data. The corrected MPEG dataset was used as input to a semi-distributed hydrological model Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) for simulation of discharge of the Gilgel Abay and Gumara watersheds in the Upper Blue Nile basin, Ethiopia. The result indicated that the MPEG satellite rainfall captured 81% and 78% of the gauged rainfall variability with a consistent bias of underestimating the gauged rainfall by 60%. A linear bias correction applied significantly reduced the bias while maintaining the coefficient of correlation. The simulated flow using bias corrected MPEG SRE resulted in a simulated flow comparable to the gauge rainfall for both watersheds. The study indicated the potential of MPEG SRE in water budget studies after applying a linear bias correction.

  9. Analysis of Spatial Characteristics of Rainfall for Optimal Observation Network in Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Sojung; Lee, Ebony; Park, Seon Ki; Park, Yunho; Lee, Jeung Whan

    2017-04-01

    Accurate prediction of high impact weather phenomena can reduce damages to people as well as property. Among the meteorological disasters occurred in Korea, heavy rainfall causes the second largest damage, next to typhoons. Therefore, proper observation network of rainfall is important for better understanding of the rainfall characteristics and for more accurate rainfall forecast over Korea. Precipitating weather systems in Korea are highly influenced by East Asian Monsoon, hence they have not only high seasonal variation in rainfall, but also high spatial variation due to complex topographic characteristics. In this study, we identify the spatial characteristics of rainfall in Korea with the geostatistical analyses, including autocorrelogram, variogram, Moran's I, and general G. We develop a testbed system to design an appropriate observation network for rainfall, which can be applied to other high impact weather systems. Geostatistical analyses are conducted using data sets collected from Automatic Weather Stations (AWS; 600 rain gauge data), global/regional numerical weather prediction outputs (i.e., temperature, geopotential height and humidity), Himawari satellite measurements (i.e., water vapor) over Korea in a period of 2013 - 2015. A heavy rainfall is defined as a case with the rainfall rate larger than 80 mm/24 hr over at least one station. In order to consider different characteristics of heavy rainfall systems, we have classified them into several groups: isolated thunderstorms, convective bands, squall lines, cloud clusters, migratory cyclones, typhoons, Changma (monsoon) frontal systems, and showers. We also perform the spatial analyses of rainfall by dividing Korea into several areas based on topographic characteristics. Our results show different properties for different heavy rainfall systems in terms of correlation distances, separation distances, clustered vs. random patterns, and hot vs. cold spots; thus suggesting clues for optimal observation

  10. Rainfall Characteristics and Regionalization in Peninsular Malaysia Based on a High Resolution Gridded Data Set

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chee Loong Wong

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Daily gridded rainfall data over Peninsular Malaysia are delineated using an objective clustering algorithm, with the objective of classifying rainfall grids into groups of homogeneous regions based on the similarity of the rainfall annual cycles. It has been demonstrated that Peninsular Malaysia can be statistically delineated into eight distinct rainfall regions. This delineation is closely associated with the topographic and geographic characteristics. The variation of rainfall over the Peninsula is generally characterized by bimodal variations with two peaks, i.e., a primary peak occurring during the autumn transitional period and a secondary peak during the spring transitional period. The east coast zones, however, showed a single peak during the northeast monsoon (NEM. The influence of NEM is stronger compared to the southwest monsoon (SWM. Significantly increasing rainfall trends at 95% confidence level are not observed in all regions during the NEM, with exception of northwest zone (R1 and coastal band of west coast interior region (R3. During SWM, most areas have become drier over the last three decades. The study identifies higher variation of mean monthly rainfall over the east coast regions, but spatially, the rainfall is uniformly distributed. For the southwestern coast and west coast regions, a larger range of coefficients of variation is mostly obtained during the NEM, and to a smaller extent during the SWM. The inland region received least rainfall in February, but showed the largest spatial variation. The relationship between rainfall and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO was examined based on the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI. Although the concurrent relationships between rainfall in the different regions and ENSO are generally weak with negative correlations, the rainfall shows stronger positive correlation with preceding ENSO signals with a time lag of four to eight months.

  11. Propagation of radar rainfall uncertainty in urban flood simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liguori, Sara; Rico-Ramirez, Miguel

    2013-04-01

    This work discusses the results of the implementation of a novel probabilistic system designed to improve ensemble sewer flow predictions for the drainage network of a small urban area in the North of England. The probabilistic system has been developed to model the uncertainty associated to radar rainfall estimates and propagate it through radar-based ensemble sewer flow predictions. The assessment of this system aims at outlining the benefits of addressing the uncertainty associated to radar rainfall estimates in a probabilistic framework, to be potentially implemented in the real-time management of the sewer network in the study area. Radar rainfall estimates are affected by uncertainty due to various factors [1-3] and quality control and correction techniques have been developed in order to improve their accuracy. However, the hydrological use of radar rainfall estimates and forecasts remains challenging. A significant effort has been devoted by the international research community to the assessment of the uncertainty propagation through probabilistic hydro-meteorological forecast systems [4-5], and various approaches have been implemented for the purpose of characterizing the uncertainty in radar rainfall estimates and forecasts [6-11]. A radar-based ensemble stochastic approach, similar to the one implemented for use in the Southern-Alps by the REAL system [6], has been developed for the purpose of this work. An ensemble generator has been calibrated on the basis of the spatial-temporal characteristics of the residual error in radar estimates assessed with reference to rainfall records from around 200 rain gauges available for the year 2007, previously post-processed and corrected by the UK Met Office [12-13]. Each ensemble member is determined by summing a perturbation field to the unperturbed radar rainfall field. The perturbations are generated by imposing the radar error spatial and temporal correlation structure to purely stochastic fields. A

  12. Observed daily large-scale rainfall patterns during BOBMEX-1999

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    R. Narasimhan (Krishtel eMaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22

    A daily rainfall dataset and the corresponding rainfall maps have been produced by objective analysis of rainfall data. The satellite estimate of rainfall and the raingauge values are merged to form the final analysis. Associated with epochs of monsoon these rainfall maps are able to show the rainfall activities over India and ...

  13. Performance of High Resolution Satellite Rainfall Products over Data Scarce Parts of Eastern Ethiopia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shimelis B. Gebere

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Accurate estimation of rainfall in mountainous areas is necessary for various water resource-related applications. Though rain gauges accurately measure rainfall, they are rarely found in mountainous regions and satellite rainfall data can be used as an alternative source over these regions. This study evaluated the performance of three high-resolution satellite rainfall products, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM 3B42, the Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP_MVK+, and the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely-Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN at daily, monthly, and seasonal time scales against rain gauge records over data-scarce parts of Eastern Ethiopia. TRMM 3B42 rain products show relatively better performance at the three time scales, while PERSIANN did much better than GSMaP. At the daily time scale, TRMM correctly detected 88% of the rainfall from the rain gauge. The correlation at the monthly time scale also revealed that the TRMM has captured the observed rainfall better than the other two. For Belg (short rain and Kiremt (long rain seasons, the TRMM did better than the others by far. However, during Bega (dry season, PERSIANN showed a relatively good estimate. At all-time scales, noticing the bias, TRMM tends to overestimate, while PERSIANN and GSMaP tend to underestimate the rainfall. The overall result suggests that monthly and seasonal TRMM rainfall performed better than daily rainfall. It has also been found that both GSMaP and PERSIANN performed better in relatively flat areas than mountainous areas. Before the practical use of TRMM, the RMSE value needs to be improved by considering the topography of the study area or adjusting the bias.

  14. Rainfall-induced landslide susceptibility zonation of Puerto Rico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiara Lepore; Sameer A. Kamal; Peter Shanahan; Rafael L. Bras

    2011-01-01

    Landslides are a major geologic hazard with estimated tens of deaths and $1–2 billion in economic losses per year in the US alone. The island of Puerto Rico experiences one or two large events per year, often triggered in steeply sloped areas by prolonged and heavy rainfall. Identifying areas susceptible to landslides thus has great potential value for Puerto Rico and...

  15. Relationship between magnitude of phytoplankton blooms and rainfall in a hyper-eutrophic lagoon: A continuous monitoring approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Pei-Jie; Tew, Kwee Siong; Hsieh, Hung-Yen; Chen, Chung-Chi

    2017-11-30

    To evaluate the effect of rainfall intensity on phytoplankton blooms, a continuous monitoring system was deployed during 2015 in a hyper-eutrophic lagoon in Taiwan. Intensive rainfall occurs during the wet summer months, from May to September. Salinity in the lagoon was found to decrease with increasing intensity of rainfall. The magnitude of phytoplankton blooms also increased linearly with increasing rainfall intensity. The chlorophyll a concentration rose by an order of magnitude during the heaviest rainfall. Blooms may be fueled by nutrient enrichment caused by drainage or run-off water from surrounding areas that is channeled into the lagoon during rainfall events. During bloom periods, the rates of net primary production and ecosystem respiration were high. However, this ecosystem was autotrophic for most of the year. As extreme rainfall is predicted to increase, the results of this study imply that the frequency and magnitude of phytoplankton blooms may increase in the future. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Sensitivity of peak flow to the change of rainfall temporal pattern due to warmer climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fadhel, Sherien; Rico-Ramirez, Miguel Angel; Han, Dawei

    2018-05-01

    The widely used design storms in urban drainage networks has different drawbacks. One of them is that the shape of the rainfall temporal pattern is fixed regardless of climate change. However, previous studies have shown that the temporal pattern may scale with temperature due to climate change, which consequently affects peak flow. Thus, in addition to the scaling of the rainfall volume, the scaling relationship for the rainfall temporal pattern with temperature needs to be investigated by deriving the scaling values for each fraction within storm events, which is lacking in many parts of the world including the UK. Therefore, this study analysed rainfall data from 28 gauges close to the study area with a 15-min resolution as well as the daily temperature data. It was found that, at warmer temperatures, the rainfall temporal pattern becomes less uniform, with more intensive peak rainfall during higher intensive times and weaker rainfall during less intensive times. This is the case for storms with and without seasonal separations. In addition, the scaling values for both the rainfall volume and the rainfall fractions (i.e. each segment of rainfall temporal pattern) for the summer season were found to be higher than the corresponding results for the winter season. Applying the derived scaling values for the temporal pattern of the summer season in a hydrodynamic sewer network model produced high percentage change of peak flow between the current and future climate. This study on the scaling of rainfall fractions is the first in the UK, and its findings are of importance to modellers and designers of sewer systems because it can provide more robust scenarios for flooding mitigation in urban areas.

  17. Forecasting Global Point Rainfall using ECMWF's Ensemble Forecasting System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pillosu, Fatima; Hewson, Timothy; Zsoter, Ervin; Baugh, Calum

    2017-04-01

    ECMWF (the European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecasts), in collaboration with the EFAS (European Flood Awareness System) and GLOFAS (GLObal Flood Awareness System) teams, has developed a new operational system that post-processes grid box rainfall forecasts from its ensemble forecasting system to provide global probabilistic point-rainfall predictions. The project attains a higher forecasting skill by applying an understanding of how different rainfall generation mechanisms lead to different degrees of sub-grid variability in rainfall totals. In turn this approach facilitates identification of cases in which very localized extreme totals are much more likely. This approach aims also to improve the rainfall input required in different hydro-meteorological applications. Flash flood forecasting, in particular in urban areas, is a good example. In flash flood scenarios precipitation is typically characterised by high spatial variability and response times are short. In this case, to move beyond radar based now casting, the classical approach has been to use very high resolution hydro-meteorological models. Of course these models are valuable but they can represent only very limited areas, may not be spatially accurate and may give reasonable results only for limited lead times. On the other hand, our method aims to use a very cost-effective approach to downscale global rainfall forecasts to a point scale. It needs only rainfall totals from standard global reporting stations and forecasts over a relatively short period to train it, and it can give good results even up to day 5. For these reasons we believe that this approach better satisfies user needs around the world. This presentation aims to describe two phases of the project: The first phase, already completed, is the implementation of this new system to provide 6 and 12 hourly point-rainfall accumulation probabilities. To do this we use a limited number of physically relevant global model parameters (i

  18. Evaluation of Surface Runoff Generation Processes Using a Rainfall Simulator: A Small Scale Laboratory Experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danáčová, Michaela; Valent, Peter; Výleta, Roman

    2017-12-01

    Nowadays, rainfall simulators are being used by many researchers in field or laboratory experiments. The main objective of most of these experiments is to better understand the underlying runoff generation processes, and to use the results in the process of calibration and validation of hydrological models. Many research groups have assembled their own rainfall simulators, which comply with their understanding of rainfall processes, and the requirements of their experiments. Most often, the existing rainfall simulators differ mainly in the size of the irrigated area, and the way they generate rain drops. They can be characterized by the accuracy, with which they produce a rainfall of a given intensity, the size of the irrigated area, and the rain drop generating mechanism. Rainfall simulation experiments can provide valuable information about the genesis of surface runoff, infiltration of water into soil and rainfall erodibility. Apart from the impact of physical properties of soil, its moisture and compaction on the generation of surface runoff and the amount of eroded particles, some studies also investigate the impact of vegetation cover of the whole area of interest. In this study, the rainfall simulator was used to simulate the impact of the slope gradient of the irrigated area on the amount of generated runoff and sediment yield. In order to eliminate the impact of external factors and to improve the reproducibility of the initial conditions, the experiments were conducted in laboratory conditions. The laboratory experiments were carried out using a commercial rainfall simulator, which was connected to an external peristaltic pump. The pump maintained a constant and adjustable inflow of water, which enabled to overcome the maximum volume of simulated precipitation of 2.3 l, given by the construction of the rainfall simulator, while maintaining constant characteristics of the simulated precipitation. In this study a 12-minute rainfall with a constant intensity

  19. Characterization of peak streamflows and flood inundation at selected areas in North Carolina following Hurricane Matthew, October 2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Musser, Jonathan W.; Watson, Kara M.; Gotvald, Anthony J.

    2017-05-05

    The passage of Hurricane Matthew through central and eastern North Carolina during October 7–9, 2016, brought heavy rainfall, which resulted in major flooding. More than 15 inches of rain was recorded in some areas. More than 600 roads were closed, including Interstates 95 and 40, and nearly 99,000 structures were affected by floodwaters. Immediately following the flooding, the U.S. Geological Survey documented 267 high-water marks, of which 254 were surveyed. North Carolina Emergency Management documented and surveyed 353 high-water marks. Using a subset of these highwater marks, six flood-inundation maps were created for hard-hit communities. Digital datasets of the inundation areas, study reach boundary, and water-depth rasters are available for download. In addition, peak gage-height data, peak streamflow data, and annual exceedance probabilities (in percent) were determined for 24 U.S. Geological Survey streamgages located near the heavily flooded communities.

  20. Rainfall thresholds as a landslide indicator for engineered slopes on the Irish Rail network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinović, Karlo; Gavin, Kenneth; Reale, Cormac; Mangan, Cathal

    2018-04-01

    Rainfall thresholds express the minimum levels of rainfall that need to be reached or exceeded in order for landslides to occur in a particular area. They are a common tool in expressing the temporal portion of landslide hazard analysis. Numerous rainfall thresholds have been developed for different areas worldwide, however none of these are focused on landslides occurring on the engineered slopes on transport infrastructure networks. This paper uses empirical method to develop the rainfall thresholds for landslides on the Irish Rail network earthworks. For comparison, rainfall thresholds are also developed for natural terrain in Ireland. The results show that particular thresholds involving relatively low rainfall intensities are applicable for Ireland, owing to the specific climate. Furthermore, the comparison shows that rainfall thresholds for engineered slopes are lower than those for landslides occurring on the natural terrain. This has severe implications as it indicates that there is a significant risk involved when using generic weather alerts (developed largely for natural terrain) for infrastructure management, and showcases the need for developing railway and road specific rainfall thresholds for landslides.

  1. The TAMORA algorithm: satellite rainfall estimates over West Africa using multi-spectral SEVIRI data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chadwick, R. S.; Grimes, D. I. F.; Saunders, R. W.; Francis, P. N.; Blackmore, T. A.

    2010-03-01

    A multi-spectral rainfall estimation algorithm has been developed for the Sahel region of West Africa with the purpose of producing accumulated rainfall estimates for drought monitoring and food security. Radar data were used to calibrate multi-channel SEVIRI data from MSG, and a probability of rainfall at several different rain-rates was established for each combination of SEVIRI radiances. Radar calibrations from both Europe (the SatPrecip algorithm) and Niger (TAMORA algorithm) were used. 10 day estimates were accumulated from SatPrecip and TAMORA and compared with kriged gauge data and TAMSAT satellite rainfall estimates over West Africa. SatPrecip was found to produce large overestimates for the region, probably because of its non-local calibration. TAMORA was negatively biased for areas of West Africa with relatively high rainfall, but its skill was comparable to TAMSAT for the low-rainfall region climatologically similar to its calibration area around Niamey. These results confirm the high importance of local calibration for satellite-derived rainfall estimates. As TAMORA shows no improvement in skill over TAMSAT for dekadal estimates, the extra cloud-microphysical information provided by multi-spectral data may not be useful in determining rainfall accumulations at a ten day timescale. Work is ongoing to determine whether it shows improved accuracy at shorter timescales.

  2. A rainfall design method for spatial flood risk assessment: considering multiple flood sources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, X.; Tatano, H.

    2015-08-01

    Information about the spatial distribution of flood risk is important for integrated urban flood risk management. Focusing on urban areas, spatial flood risk assessment must reflect all risk information derived from multiple flood sources: rivers, drainage, coastal flooding etc. that may affect the area. However, conventional flood risk assessment deals with each flood source independently, which leads to an underestimation of flood risk in the floodplain. Even in floodplains that have no risk from coastal flooding, flooding from river channels and inundation caused by insufficient drainage capacity should be considered simultaneously. For integrated flood risk management, it is necessary to establish a methodology to estimate flood risk distribution across a floodplain. In this paper, a rainfall design method for spatial flood risk assessment, which considers the joint effects of multiple flood sources, is proposed. The concept of critical rainfall duration determined by the concentration time of flooding is introduced to connect response characteristics of different flood sources with rainfall. A copula method is then adopted to capture the correlation of rainfall amount with different critical rainfall durations. Rainfall events are designed taking advantage of the copula structure of correlation and marginal distribution of rainfall amounts within different critical rainfall durations. A case study in the Otsu River Basin, Osaka prefecture, Japan was conducted to demonstrate this methodology.

  3. Fabrication of 0.5-inch diameter FBR mixed oxide fuel pellets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rasmussen, D.E.; Benecke, M.W.; McCord, R.B.

    1979-01-01

    Large diameter (0.535 inch) mixed oxide fuel pellets for Fast Breeder Reactor application were successfully fabricated by the cold-press-and-sinter technique. Enriched UO 2 , PuO 2 -UO 2 , and PuO 2 -ThO 2 compositions were fabricated into nominally 90% theoretical density pellets for the UO 2 and PuO 2 -UO 2 compositions, and 88% and 93% T.D. for the PuO 2 -ThO 2 compositions. Some processing adjustments were required to achieve satisfactory pellet quality and density. Furnace heating rate was reduced from 200 to 50 0 C/h for the organic binder burnout cycle for the large, 0.535-inch diameter pellets to eliminate pellet cracking during sintering. Additional preslugging steps and die wall lubrication during pressing were used to eliminate pressing cracks in the PuO 2 -ThO 2 pellets

  4. Health physics challenges involved with opening a "seventeen-inch" concrete waste vault.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sullivan, Patrick T; Pizzulli, Michelle

    2005-05-01

    This paper describes the various activities involved with opening a sealed legacy "Seventeen-inch" concrete vault and the health physics challenges and solutions employed. As part of a legacy waste stream that was removed from the former Hazardous Waste Management Facility at Brookhaven National Laboratory, the "Seventeen-inch" concrete vault labeled 1-95 was moved to the new Waste Management Facility for ultimate disposal. Because the vault contained 239Pu foils with a total activity in excess of the transuranic waste limits, the foils needed to be removed and repackaged for disposal. Conventional diamond wire saws could not be used because of facility constraints, so this project relied mainly on manual techniques. The planning and engineering controls put in place enabled personnel to open the vault and remove the waste while keeping dose as low as reasonably achievable.

  5. Schlesinger's Telescope: A Brief History of the Yale 26-inch Refractor

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Altena, W. F.; Hoffleit, E. D.

    2003-08-01

    Frank Schlesinger began planning for the establishment of a southern observatory when he arrived at Yale in 1920. After discussing the possibility of a location in Auckland, New Zealand and gathering site survey observations for a four-month period, he decided to select a site in Johannesburg, South Africa. A large photographically corrected 26-inch objective was ground, polished and completed by James McDowell in 1923, while the telescope was built largely in the Yale shops in New Haven. Schlesinger left New Haven in 1924 with the lens, and the telescope followed shortly thereafter. Installation of the 26-inch refractor was completed in early June and dedicated by the Prince of Wales on June 22, 1924. The principal observational program for the 26-inch refractor was the determination of parallaxes of the bright stars and it was continued until 1952, when the telescope was moved to Mt. Stromlo due to the deteriorating sky conditions in Johannesburg. The parallax program continued at Mt. Stromlo until 1963 when the telescope was donated to the Commonwealth Observatory and the Yale-Columbia project moved to Argentina, Columbia having joined with Yale in 1943. Approximately 70,000 plates were taken with the refractor for the parallax programs and about 2,000 stellar parallaxes determined. The Schlesinger 26-inch refractor was destroyed by a firestorm on January 18, 2003, along with the other telescopes on Mount Stromlo, the workshop, library and many of the residences. This event was a sad ending to a telescope that played a major role in defining our knowledge of the distances, motions and masses of the brighter stars during the first half of the 20th century.

  6. Design of a 18F production system at ORNL 86-inch cyclotron

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shaeffer, M.C.; Barreto, F.; Datesh, J.R.; Goldstein, B.R.

    1977-01-01

    A target system for the production of 18 F by proton bombardment of H 2 18 O was designed for the ORNL 86-inch cyclotron facility. The system consists of concentric titanium and aluminum cylinders. Oxygen-18-enriched H 2 O circulates through the inner titanium cylinder and through an external heat exchanger with cooling water flowing in the annulus. Yields of 5.0 curies are expected for a 250-μA proton beam current and 24-min irradiation time

  7. Influence of rainfall and catchment characteristics on urban stormwater quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, An; Egodawatta, Prasanna; Guan, Yuntao; Goonetilleke, Ashantha

    2013-02-01

    The accuracy and reliability of urban stormwater quality modelling outcomes are important for stormwater management decision making. The commonly adopted approach where only a limited number of factors are used to predict urban stormwater quality may not adequately represent the complexity of the quality response to a rainfall event or site-to-site differences to support efficient treatment design. This paper discusses an investigation into the influence of rainfall and catchment characteristics on urban stormwater quality in order to investigate the potential areas for errors in current stormwater quality modelling practices. It was found that the influence of rainfall characteristics on pollutant wash-off is step-wise based on specific thresholds. This means that a modelling approach where the wash-off process is predicted as a continuous function of rainfall intensity and duration is not appropriate. Additionally, other than conventional catchment characteristics, namely, land use and impervious surface fraction, other catchment characteristics such as impervious area layout, urban form and site specific characteristics have an important influence on both, pollutant build-up and wash-off processes. Finally, the use of solids as a surrogate to estimate other pollutant species was found to be inappropriate. Individually considering build-up and wash-off processes for each pollutant species should be the preferred option. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Spatial and temporal variation of rainfall trends of Sri Lanka

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wickramagamage, P.

    2016-08-01

    This study was based on daily rainfall data of 48 stations distributed over the entire island covering a 30-year period from 1981 to 2010. Data analysis was done to identify the spatial pattern of rainfall trends. The methods employed in data analysis are linear regression and interpolation by Universal Kriging and Radial Basis function. The slope of linear regression curves of 48 stations was used in interpolation. The regression coefficients show spatially and seasonally variable positive and negative trends of annual and seasonal rainfall. About half of the mean annual pentad series show negative trends, while the rest shows positive trends. By contrast, the rainfall trends of the Southwest Monsoon (SWM) season are predominantly negative throughout the country. The first phase of the Northeast Monsoon (NEM1) displays downward trends everywhere, with the exception of the Southeastern coastal area. The strongest negative trends were found in the Northeast and in the Central Highlands. The second phase (NEM2) is mostly positive, except in the Northeast. The Inter-Monsoon (IM) periods have predominantly upward trends almost everywhere, but still the trends in some parts of the Highlands and Northeast are negative. The long-term data at Watawala Nuwara Eliya and Sandringham show a consistent decline in the rainfall over the last 100 years, particularly during the SWM. There seems to be a faster decline in the rainfall in the last 3 decades. These trends are consistent with the observations in India. It is generally accepted that there has been changes in the circulation pattern. Weakening of the SWM circulation parameters caused by global warming appears to be the main causes of recent changes. Effect of the Asian Brown Cloud may also play a role in these changes.

  9. Monsoon effect simulation on typhoon rainfall potential - Typhoon Morakot (2009

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi-Ling Chang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available A record breaking extreme precipitation event produced 3000 mm day-1 of accumulated rainfall over southern Taiwan in August 2009. The interactions between Typhoon Morakot and the prevailing southwesterly (SW monsoon are the primary mechanism for this heavy precipitation during 5 - 13 August 2009. This extreme precipitation could be produced by the abundant moisture from the SW monsoon associated with the interaction between typhoon and monsoon wind fields, leading to severe property damage. The accurate mapping of extreme precipitation caused from the interaction between a monsoon and typhoon is critical for early warning in Taiwan. This study simulates the heavy rainfall event is based on the Weather Research and Forecast system model (WRF using the three nested domain configuration. Using data assimilation with a virtual meteorological field using the 3D-Var system, such as wind field to alter the SW monsoon strength in the initial condition, the impacts of intensified convergence and water vapor content on the accumulated rainfall are analyzed to quantize the intensification of typhoon rainfall potential. The results showed a positive correlation between the enhanced precipitation and the intensity of low-level wind speed convergence as well as water vapor content. For the Typhoon Morakot case study the rainfall for could attain approximately 2 × 104 mm at 6 hours interval in the southern Taiwan area when 10 × 10-6 s-1 convergence intensified at 850 hPa level around the southern part of the Taiwan Strait. These results suggest that low-level wind speed, convergence and water vapor content play key roles in the typhoon rainfall potential coupled with the SW monsoon.

  10. Conditional probability of intense rainfall producing high ground concentrations from radioactive plumes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wayland, J.R.

    1977-03-01

    The overlap of the expanding plume of radioactive material from a hypothetical nuclear accident with rainstorms over dense population areas is considered. The conditional probability of the occurrence of hot spots from intense cellular rainfall is presented

  11. Comparison between intensity- duration thresholds and cumulative rainfall thresholds for the forecasting of landslide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lagomarsino, Daniela; Rosi, Ascanio; Rossi, Guglielmo; Segoni, Samuele; Catani, Filippo

    2014-05-01

    This work makes a quantitative comparison between the results of landslide forecasting obtained using two different rainfall threshold models, one using intensity-duration thresholds and the other based on cumulative rainfall thresholds in an area of northern Tuscany of 116 km2. The first methodology identifies rainfall intensity-duration thresholds by means a software called MaCumBA (Massive CUMulative Brisk Analyzer) that analyzes rain-gauge records, extracts the intensities (I) and durations (D) of the rainstorms associated with the initiation of landslides, plots these values on a diagram, and identifies thresholds that define the lower bounds of the I-D values. A back analysis using data from past events can be used to identify the threshold conditions associated with the least amount of false alarms. The second method (SIGMA) is based on the hypothesis that anomalous or extreme values of rainfall are responsible for landslide triggering: the statistical distribution of the rainfall series is analyzed, and multiples of the standard deviation (σ) are used as thresholds to discriminate between ordinary and extraordinary rainfall events. The name of the model, SIGMA, reflects the central role of the standard deviations in the proposed methodology. The definition of intensity-duration rainfall thresholds requires the combined use of rainfall measurements and an inventory of dated landslides, whereas SIGMA model can be implemented using only rainfall data. These two methodologies were applied in an area of 116 km2 where a database of 1200 landslides was available for the period 2000-2012. The results obtained are compared and discussed. Although several examples of visual comparisons between different intensity-duration rainfall thresholds are reported in the international literature, a quantitative comparison between thresholds obtained in the same area using different techniques and approaches is a relatively undebated research topic.

  12. Influence of satellite-derived rainfall patterns on plague occurrence in northeast Tanzania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kimaro Didas

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In the tropics, rainfall data are seldom accurately recorded, and are often discontinuous in time. In the scope of plague-research in northeast Tanzania, we adapted previous research to reconstruct rainfall patterns at a suitable resolution (1 km, based on time series of NDVI: more accurate satellite imagery was used, in the form of MODIS NDVI, and rainfall data were collected from the TRMM sensors instead of in situ data. First, we established a significant relationship between monthly rainfall and monthly composited MODIS NDVI. The established linear relationship was then used to reconstruct historic precipitation patterns over a mountainous area in northeastern Tanzania. Results We validated the resulting precipitation estimates with in situ rainfall time series of three meteorological stations located in the study area. Taking the region's topography into account, a correlation coefficient of 0.66 was obtained for two of the three meteorological stations. Our results suggest that the adapted strategy can be applied fruitfully to estimate rainfall variability and seasonality, despite the underestimation of overall rainfall rates. Based on this model, rainfall in previous years (1986 is modelled to obtain a dataset with which we can compare plague occurrence in the area. A positive correlation of 82% is obtained between high rainfall rates and plague incidence with a two month lag between rainfall and plague cases. Conclusions We conclude that the obtained results are satisfactory in support of the human plague research in which this study is embedded, and that this approach can be applied in other studies with similar goals.

  13. Development of a 55 μm pitch 8 inch CMOS image sensor for the high resolution NDT application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, M. S.; Kim, G.; Cho, G.; Kim, D.

    2016-11-01

    A CMOS image sensor (CIS) with a large area for the high resolution X-ray imaging was designed. The sensor has an active area of 125 × 125 mm2 comprised with 2304 × 2304 pixels and a pixel size of 55 × 55 μm2. First batch samples were fabricated by using an 8 inch silicon CMOS image sensor process with a stitching method. In order to evaluate the performance of the first batch samples, the electro-optical test and the X-ray test after coupling with an image intensifier screen were performed. The primary results showed that the performance of the manufactured sensors was limited by a large stray capacitance from the long path length between the analog multiplexer on the chip and the bank ADC on the data acquisition board. The measured speed and dynamic range were limited up to 12 frame per sec and 55 dB respectively, but other parameters such as the MTF, NNPS and DQE showed a good result as designed. Based on this study, the new X-ray CIS with ~ 50 μm pitch and ~ 150 cm2 active area are going to be designed for the high resolution X-ray NDT equipment for semiconductor and PCB inspections etc.

  14. Evaluate Hydrologic Response on Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Rainfall Using High Resolution Radar Rainfall Data and WRF-Hydro Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, S.; Fang, N. Z.

    2017-12-01

    A previously developed Dynamic Moving Storm (DMS) generator is a multivariate rainfall model simulating the complex nature of precipitation field: spatial variability, temporal variability, and storm movement. Previous effort by the authors has investigated the sensitivity of DMS parameters on corresponding hydrologic responses by using synthetic storms. In this study, the DMS generator has been upgraded to generate more realistic precipitation field. The dependence of hydrologic responses on rainfall features was investigated by dissecting the precipitation field into rain cells and modifying their spatio-temporal specification individually. To retrieve DMS parameters from radar rainfall data, rain cell segmentation and tracking algorithms were respectively developed and applied on high resolution radar rainfall data (1) to spatially determine the rain cells within individual radar image and (2) to temporally analyze their dynamic behavior. Statistics of DMS parameters were established by processing a long record of rainfall data (10 years) to keep the modification on real storms within the limit of regional climatology. Empirical distributions of the DMS parameters were calculated to reveal any preferential pattern and seasonality. Subsequently, the WRF-Hydro model forced by the remodeled and modified precipitation was used for hydrologic simulation. The study area was the Upper Trinity River Basin (UTRB) watershed, Texas; and two kinds of high resolution radar data i.e. the Next-Generation Radar (NEXRAD) level III Digital Hybrid Reflectivity (DHR) product and Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) precipitation rate product, were utilized to establish parameter statistics and to recreate/remodel historical events respectively. The results demonstrated that rainfall duration is a significant linkage between DMS parameters and their hydrologic impacts—any combination of spatiotemporal characteristics that keep rain cells longer over the catchment will produce higher

  15. Calibration of Rainfall-Runoff Parameters in Peatlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walle Menberu, Meseret; Torabi Haghighi, Ali; Kløve, Bjørn

    2013-04-01

    Finland is a country where its possession of peatlands compared to the total surface area of the country puts in the leading categories globally in peatland possession having 33.5% of its total land area covered with peatlands. Recent interest has grown in using peatlands as temporary flood control barriers by taking advantage of the high water holding capacity of peat soils. Water holding capacity of peat soils enables to reduce high rate of runoff and peak flow which might endanger downstream of the flow and in the process of doing that, the rest of the water leaving the peatland areas is less polluted due to the wetlands' potential in purifying polluted water. Therefore, in order to understand how capable enough peatlands are in holding water by reducing the peak flow or slowing down the rate of runoff, this paper analyses the rainfall-runoff phenomena in peatland catchments through important runoff parameters. Among the most important runoff parameters; the initial abstraction, the curve number and lag time are selected for this paper due to their highest impact on rainfall-runoff process. For this study, two peatland catchments of drained and pristine are selected. Managing to explain the initial abstraction and curve number behaviour in the catchments will able to clearly understand and as well predict the rainfall-runoff process in the catchments. In the selected study sites, observed rainfall and runoff data are collected. The study sites are modelled with the help of Arc-GIS and Hec-GeoHMS and from that are exported to HEC-HMS (Hydrologic modelling software) for rainfall-runoff analysis. The two important parameters; the initial abstraction and curve number are used to calibrate the model. And finally, the parameters that have given the best fit between the modelled and observed rainfall-runoff process are suggested for the study sites. Having these parameters estimated eases to understand rainfall-runoff process in the catchments for whatsoever purpose

  16. The physics of rainclouds, what is behind rainfall trends?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Junkermann, Wolfgang; Hacker, Jorg

    2017-04-01

    In several locations in the world rainfall was significantly declining during the last four decades since about 1970, despite during the same timespan the water vapor availability in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) was increasing by about five percent. Increasing water vapor levels in the PBL are a result of climate change and well in agreement with the observed one degree increase of air temperature over the oceans. Increasing water vapor availability due to an increase in evaporation should lead to a higher turnover rate within the hydrological cycle, which should result either in more frequent or in more intense rainfall. Several regional observations especially along the Australian coastline show a contrary picture. Often rainfall is less frequent and the annual rainfall is declining. Also the number of rainy days goes down. This behavior could be caused by a number of different processes affecting both, the amount of liquid water in the atmosphere and the microphysical properties of clouds. Within the discussions are: -A change in the large scale advection patterns due to global warming, shifting the trajectories of low pressure systems, a slow process that takes several decades. -A change in land use by deforestation leading to lower roughness, higher albedo and lower convective energy. Such a land use change might happen within about one decade (e.g. Western Australia). -A change in aerosol abundance. Addition of anthropogenic cloud condensation nuclei lead instantly to smaller cloud droplets and subsequently to a regional to continental scale redistribution of rainfall within the time scales of cloud lifetime (hours to days). Airborne experiments show that indeed the number of aerosols in several of the respective areas investigated up to now was increasing roughly in time with the observed rainfall changes. However, only in few of the areas the availability of historical aerosol data is sufficient for a more detailed investigation. We show results from

  17. Deforestation and rainfall recycling in Brazil: Is decreased forest cover connectivity associated with decreased rainfall connectivity?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adera, S.; Larsen, L.; Levy, M. C.; Thompson, S. E.

    2017-12-01

    In the Brazilian rainforest-savanna transition zone, deforestation has the potential to significantly affect rainfall by disrupting rainfall recycling, the process by which regional evapotranspiration contributes to regional rainfall. Understanding rainfall recycling in this region is important not only for sustaining Amazon and Cerrado ecosystems, but also for cattle ranching, agriculture, hydropower generation, and drinking water management. Simulations in previous studies suggest complex, scale-dependent interactions between forest cover connectivity and rainfall. For example, the size and distribution of deforested patches has been found to affect rainfall quantity and spatial distribution. Here we take an empirical approach, using the spatial connectivity of rainfall as an indicator of rainfall recycling, to ask: as forest cover connectivity decreased from 1981 - 2015, how did the spatial connectivity of rainfall change in the Brazilian rainforest-savanna transition zone? We use satellite forest cover and rainfall data covering this period of intensive forest cover loss in the region (forest cover from the Hansen Global Forest Change dataset; rainfall from the Climate Hazards Infrared Precipitation with Stations dataset). Rainfall spatial connectivity is quantified using transfer entropy, a metric from information theory, and summarized using network statistics. Networks of connectivity are quantified for paired deforested and non-deforested regions before deforestation (1981-1995) and during/after deforestation (2001-2015). Analyses reveal a decline in spatial connectivity networks of rainfall following deforestation.

  18. Changeability of soil erosion variables in small field plots from different rainfall durations with constant intensity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katebikord, Azadeh; Khaledi Darvishan, Abdulvahed; Alavi, Seyed Jalil

    2017-05-01

    Rainfall duration is among the most effective characteristics of erosivity factor on runoff, splash and soil loss, especially when a rainfall duration is selected for laboratory or field plot studies. Selecting the appropriate rainfall duration particularly in laboratory studies (because of higher relative changes in lower durations), may lead to decrease the errors in the studied treatments. The rainfall duration must be well considered before any experiments exploring the effect of rainfall as one of the main factors. Therefore, the present study was conducted in field plots with area of 1 m2 located in an 18% slope, loamy-clay, under rainfall simulation with the intensity of 40 mm h-1. Total and net splashes, sediment concentration, soil loss, sheet erosion and sediment delivery ratio were measured and evaluated in 6 levels of rainfall duration (5, 10, 15, 20, 25 and 30 min), with 3 replications. The results showed that, although the runoff volume increased with increasing rainfall duration generally, there was insufficient capacity for runoff to transport the considerable amounts of the splashed and eroded soil to the plot outlet. The translocation of soil surface particles and sheet erosion were therefore increased due to more duration of rainfall and runoff, while a significant portion of the eroded soil, even after 30 min rainfall duration was not transported to the plot outlet. Based on the results, the sensitivity and efficiency of Generalized Linear Model (GLM) and Generalized Additive Model (GAM) in the evaluation of the differences between hydrological responses in various rainfall durations were different. According to the results, there was a change in the average ratio of sediment delivery in studied treatments from 0.41 to 13.03% for 5 and 30 min respectively. The results clearly showed that the duration corresponding to the intensity is the best choice to adopt soil erosion studies at plot and experimental conditions.

  19. A Deep Neural Network Model for Rainfall Estimation UsingPolarimetric WSR-88DP Radar Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, H.; Chandra, C. V.; Chen, H.

    2016-12-01

    Rainfall estimation based on radar measurements has been an important topic for a few decades. Generally, radar rainfall estimation is conducted through parametric algorisms such as reflectivity-rainfall relation (i.e., Z-R relation). On the other hand, neural networks are developed for ground rainfall estimation based on radar measurements. This nonparametric method, which takes into account of both radar observations and rainfall measurements from ground rain gauges, has been demonstrated successfully for rainfall rate estimation. However, the neural network-based rainfall estimation is limited in practice due to the model complexity and structure, data quality, as well as different rainfall microphysics. Recently, the deep learning approach has been introduced in pattern recognition and machine learning areas. Compared to traditional neural networks, the deep learning based methodologies have larger number of hidden layers and more complex structure for data representation. Through a hierarchical learning process, the high level structured information and knowledge can be extracted automatically from low level features of the data. In this paper, we introduce a novel deep neural network model for rainfall estimation based on ground polarimetric radar measurements .The model is designed to capture the complex abstractions of radar measurements at different levels using multiple layers feature identification and extraction. The abstractions at different levels can be used independently or fused with other data resource such as satellite-based rainfall products and/or topographic data to represent the rain characteristics at certain location. In particular, the WSR-88DP radar and rain gauge data collected in Dallas - Fort Worth Metroplex and Florida are used extensively to train the model, and for demonstration purposes. Quantitative evaluation of the deep neural network based rainfall products will also be presented, which is based on an independent rain gauge

  20. On the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM): Bringing NASA's Earth System Science Program to the Classroom

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepherd, J. Marshall

    1998-01-01

    The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission is the first mission dedicated to measuring tropical and subtropical rainfall using a variety of remote sensing instrumentation, including the first spaceborne rain-measuring radar. Since the energy released when tropical rainfall occurs is a primary "fuel" supply for the weather and climate "engine"; improvements in computer models which predict future weather and climate states may depend on better measurements of global tropical rainfall and its energy. In support of the STANYS conference theme of Education and Space, this presentation focuses on one aspect of NASA's Earth Systems Science Program. We seek to present an overview of the TRMM mission. This overview will discuss the scientific motivation for TRMM, the TRMM instrument package, and recent images from tropical rainfall systems and hurricanes. The presentation also targets educational components of the TRMM mission in the areas of weather, mathematics, technology, and geography that can be used by secondary school/high school educators in the classroom.

  1. The George C. Marshall Space Flight Center's 14 X 14-Inch Trisonic Wind Tunnel: A Historical Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Springer, A.

    1994-01-01

    A history of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) George C. Marshall Space Flight Center's (MSFC) 14 x 14-Inch Trisonic Wind Tunnel is presented. Its early and continuing role in the United States space program is shown through highlights of the tunnel's history and the major programs tested in the tunnel over the past 40 years. The 14-Inch Tunnel has its beginning with the Army in the late 1950's under the Army Ballistic Missile Agency (ABMA). Such programs as the Redstone, Jupiter, Pershing, and early Saturn were tested in the 14-Inch Tunnel in the late 1950's. America's first launch vehicle, the Jupiter C, was designed and developed using the 14-Inch Wind Tunnel. Under NASA, the 14-Inch Wind Tunnel has made large contributions to the Saturn, Space Transportation System, and future launch vehicle programs such as Shuttle-C and the National Launch System. A technical description of the tunnel is presented for background information on the type and capabilities of the 14-Inch Wind Tunnel. The report concludes in stating: the 14-Inch Wind Tunnel as in speed of sound; transonic, at or near the speed of sound the past, will continue to play a large but unseen role in he development of America's space program.

  2. A rainfall simulator based on multifractal generator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akrour, Nawal; mallet, Cecile; barthes, Laurent; chazottes, Aymeric

    2015-04-01

    The Precipitations are due to complex meteorological phenomenon's and unlike other geophysical constituents such as water vapour concentration they present a relaxation behaviour leading to an alternation of dry and wet periods. Thus, precipitations can be described as intermittent process. The spatial and temporal variability of this phenomenon is significant and covers large scales. This high variability can cause extreme events which are difficult to observe properly because of their suddenness and their localized character. For all these reasons, the precipitations are therefore difficult to model. This study aims to adapt a one-dimensional time series model previously developed by the authors [Akrour et al., 2013, 2014] to a two-dimensional rainfall generator. The original time series model can be divided into 3 major steps : rain support generation, intra event rain rates generation using multifractal and finally calibration process. We use the same kind of methodology in the present study. Based on dataset obtained from meteorological radar of Météo France with a spatial resolution of 1 km x 1 km we present the used approach : Firstly, the extraction of rain support (rain/no rain area) allowing the retrieval of the rain support structure function (variogram) and fractal properties. This leads us to use either the rain support modelisation proposed by ScleissXXX [ref] or directly real rain support extracted from radar rain maps. Then, the generation (over rain areas) of rain rates is made thanks to a 2D multifractal Fractionnally Integrated Flux (FIF) model [ref]. This second stage is followed by a calibration/forcing step (forcing average rain rate per events) added in order to provide rain rate coherent with observed rain-rate distribution. The forcing process is based on a relation identified from the average rain rate of observed events and their surfaces. The presentation will first explain the different steps presented above, then some results

  3. Potential of deterministic and geostatistical rainfall interpolation under high rainfall variability and dry spells: case of Kenya's Central Highlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kisaka, M. Oscar; Mucheru-Muna, M.; Ngetich, F. K.; Mugwe, J.; Mugendi, D.; Mairura, F.; Shisanya, C.; Makokha, G. L.

    2016-04-01

    Drier parts of Kenya's Central Highlands endure persistent crop failure and declining agricultural productivity. These have, in part, attributed to high temperatures, prolonged dry spells and erratic rainfall. Understanding spatial-temporal variability of climatic indices such as rainfall at seasonal level is critical for optimal rain-fed agricultural productivity and natural resource management in the study area. However, the predominant setbacks in analysing hydro-meteorological events are occasioned by either lack, inadequate, or inconsistent meteorological data. Like in most other places, the sole sources of climatic data in the study region are scarce and only limited to single stations, yet with persistent missing/unrecorded data making their utilization a challenge. This study examined seasonal anomalies and variability in rainfall, drought occurrence and the efficacy of interpolation techniques in the drier regions of eastern Kenyan. Rainfall data from five stations (Machang'a, Kiritiri, Kiambere and Kindaruma and Embu) were sourced from both the Kenya Meteorology Department and on-site primary recording. Owing to some experimental work ongoing, automated recording for primary dailies in Machang'a have been ongoing since the year 2000 to date; thus, Machang'a was treated as reference (for period of record) station for selection of other stations in the region. The other stations had data sets of over 15 years with missing data of less than 10 % as required by the world meteorological organization whose quality check is subject to the Centre for Climate Systems Modeling (C2SM) through MeteoSwiss and EMPA bodies. The dailies were also subjected to homogeneity testing to evaluate whether they came from the same population. Rainfall anomaly index, coefficients of variance and probability were utilized in the analyses of rainfall variability. Spline, kriging and inverse distance weighting interpolation techniques were assessed using daily rainfall data and

  4. Relation Between the Rainfall and Soil Moisture During Different Phases of Indian Monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varikoden, Hamza; Revadekar, J. V.

    2017-12-01

    Soil moisture is a key parameter in the prediction of southwest monsoon rainfall, hydrological modelling, and many other environmental studies. The studies on relationship between the soil moisture and rainfall in the Indian subcontinent are very limited; hence, the present study focuses the association between rainfall and soil moisture during different monsoon seasons. The soil moisture data used for this study are the ESA (European Space Agency) merged product derived from four passive and two active microwave sensors spanning over the period 1979-2013. The rainfall data used are India Meteorological Department gridded daily data. Both of these data sets are having a spatial resolution of 0.25° latitude-longitude grid. The study revealed that the soil moisture is higher during the southwest monsoon period similar to rainfall and during the pre-monsoon period, the soil moisture is lower. The annual cycle of both the soil moisture and rainfall has the similitude of monomodal variation with a peak during the month of August. The interannual variability of soil moisture and rainfall shows that they are linearly related with each other, even though they are not matched exactly for individual years. The study of extremes also exhibits the surplus amount of soil moisture during wet monsoon years and also the regions of surplus soil moisture are well coherent with the areas of high rainfall.

  5. Bivariate frequency analysis of rainfall intensity and duration for urban stormwater infrastructure design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jun, Changhyun; Qin, Xiaosheng; Gan, Thian Yew; Tung, Yeou-Koung; De Michele, Carlo

    2017-10-01

    This study presents a storm-event based bivariate frequency analysis approach to determine design rainfalls in which, the number, intensity and duration of actual rainstorm events were considered. To derive more realistic design storms, the occurrence probability of an individual rainstorm event was determined from the joint distribution of storm intensity and duration through a copula model. Hourly rainfall data were used at three climate stations respectively located in Singapore, South Korea and Canada. It was found that the proposed approach could give a more realistic description of rainfall characteristics of rainstorm events and design rainfalls. As results, the design rainfall quantities from actual rainstorm events at the three studied sites are consistently lower than those obtained from the conventional rainfall depth-duration-frequency (DDF) method, especially for short-duration storms (such as 1-h). It results from occurrence probabilities of each rainstorm event and a different angle for rainfall frequency analysis, and could offer an alternative way of describing extreme rainfall properties and potentially help improve the hydrologic design of stormwater management facilities in urban areas.

  6. Comparison of Satellite Rainfall Estimates and Rain Gauge Measurements in Italy, and Impact on Landslide Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mauro Rossi

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Landslides can be triggered by intense or prolonged rainfall. Rain gauge measurements are commonly used to predict landslides even if satellite rainfall estimates are available. Recent research focuses on the comparison of satellite estimates and gauge measurements. The rain gauge data from the Italian network (collected in the system database “Verifica Rischio Frana”, VRF are compared with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM products. For the purpose, we couple point gauge and satellite rainfall estimates at individual grid cells, evaluating the correlation between gauge and satellite data in different morpho-climatological conditions. We then analyze the statistical distributions of both rainfall data types and the rainfall events derived from them. Results show that satellite data underestimates ground data, with the largest differences in mountainous areas. Power-law models, are more appropriate to correlate gauge and satellite data. The gauge and satellite-based products exhibit different statistical distributions and the rainfall events derived from them differ. In conclusion, satellite rainfall cannot be directly compared with ground data, requiring local investigation to account for specific morpho-climatological settings. Results suggest that satellite data can be used for forecasting landslides, only performing a local scaling between satellite and ground data.

  7. An artificial neural network model for rainfall forecasting in Bangkok, Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Q. Hung

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a new approach using an Artificial Neural Network technique to improve rainfall forecast performance. A real world case study was set up in Bangkok; 4 years of hourly data from 75 rain gauge stations in the area were used to develop the ANN model. The developed ANN model is being applied for real time rainfall forecasting and flood management in Bangkok, Thailand. Aimed at providing forecasts in a near real time schedule, different network types were tested with different kinds of input information. Preliminary tests showed that a generalized feedforward ANN model using hyperbolic tangent transfer function achieved the best generalization of rainfall. Especially, the use of a combination of meteorological parameters (relative humidity, air pressure, wet bulb temperature and cloudiness, the rainfall at the point of forecasting and rainfall at the surrounding stations, as an input data, advanced ANN model to apply with continuous data containing rainy and non-rainy period, allowed model to issue forecast at any moment. Additionally, forecasts by ANN model were compared to the convenient approach namely simple persistent method. Results show that ANN forecasts have superiority over the ones obtained by the persistent model. Rainfall forecasts for Bangkok from 1 to 3 h ahead were highly satisfactory. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the most important input parameter besides rainfall itself is the wet bulb temperature in forecasting rainfall.

  8. FREQUENCY STRUCTURE OF MAJOR RAINFALL EVENTS IN THE NORTH-EASTERN PART OF BANGLADESH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    RAQUIBUL ALAM

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The amount of rainfall received over an area is an important factor in assessing availability of water to meet various demands for agriculture, industry, irrigation, generation of hydroelectricity and other human activities. The distribution of rainfall in time and space is, therefore, an important factor for the economic development of a country. Due to rapid urbanization in various parts of the north-eastern region of Bangladesh, there is a growing need to study the rainfall pattern, and also frequency of the heavy rainfall events. This study was checked monthly average rainfall from daily records of last 50 years for this region. In order to check the major events, time history of monthly rainfall data were transformed into frequency domain using the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT. Estimated peak frequency (11.98 month depicts that major rainfall events of a year are occurring earlier than the previous year. The variability of rainfall in time scale was also checked from filtered signals, which is very useful for long-term water resources planning, agricultural development and disaster management for Bangladesh.

  9. Relation Between the Rainfall and Soil Moisture During Different Phases of Indian Monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varikoden, Hamza; Revadekar, J. V.

    2018-03-01

    Soil moisture is a key parameter in the prediction of southwest monsoon rainfall, hydrological modelling, and many other environmental studies. The studies on relationship between the soil moisture and rainfall in the Indian subcontinent are very limited; hence, the present study focuses the association between rainfall and soil moisture during different monsoon seasons. The soil moisture data used for this study are the ESA (European Space Agency) merged product derived from four passive and two active microwave sensors spanning over the period 1979-2013. The rainfall data used are India Meteorological Department gridded daily data. Both of these data sets are having a spatial resolution of 0.25° latitude-longitude grid. The study revealed that the soil moisture is higher during the southwest monsoon period similar to rainfall and during the pre-monsoon period, the soil moisture is lower. The annual cycle of both the soil moisture and rainfall has the similitude of monomodal variation with a peak during the month of August. The interannual variability of soil moisture and rainfall shows that they are linearly related with each other, even though they are not matched exactly for individual years. The study of extremes also exhibits the surplus amount of soil moisture during wet monsoon years and also the regions of surplus soil moisture are well coherent with the areas of high rainfall.

  10. Satellite-based high-resolution mapping of rainfall over southern Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Meyer

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available A spatially explicit mapping of rainfall is necessary for southern Africa for eco-climatological studies or nowcasting but accurate estimates are still a challenging task. This study presents a method to estimate hourly rainfall based on data from the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI. Rainfall measurements from about 350 weather stations from 2010–2014 served as ground truth for calibration and validation. SEVIRI and weather station data were used to train neural networks that allowed the estimation of rainfall area and rainfall quantities over all times of the day. The results revealed that 60 % of recorded rainfall events were correctly classified by the model (probability of detection, POD. However, the false alarm ratio (FAR was high (0.80, leading to a Heidke skill score (HSS of 0.18. Estimated hourly rainfall quantities were estimated with an average hourly correlation of ρ = 0. 33 and a root mean square error (RMSE of 0.72. The correlation increased with temporal aggregation to 0.52 (daily, 0.67 (weekly and 0.71 (monthly. The main weakness was the overestimation of rainfall events. The model results were compared to the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG of the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM mission. Despite being a comparably simple approach, the presented MSG-based rainfall retrieval outperformed GPM IMERG in terms of rainfall area detection: GPM IMERG had a considerably lower POD. The HSS was not significantly different compared to the MSG-based retrieval due to a lower FAR of GPM IMERG. There were no further significant differences between the MSG-based retrieval and GPM IMERG in terms of correlation with the observed rainfall quantities. The MSG-based retrieval, however, provides rainfall in a higher spatial resolution. Though estimating rainfall from satellite data remains challenging, especially at high temporal resolutions, this study showed

  11. Trends in rainfall and temperature extremes in Morocco

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khomsi, K.; Mahe, G.; Tramblay, Y.; Sinan, M.; Snoussi, M.

    2015-02-01

    In Morocco, socioeconomic fields are vulnerable to weather extreme events. This work aims to analyze the frequency and the trends of temperature and rainfall extreme events in two contrasted Moroccan regions (the Tensift in the semi-arid South, and the Bouregreg in the sub-humid North), during the second half of the 20th century. This study considers long time series of daily extreme temperatures and rainfall, recorded in the stations of Marrakech and Safi for the Tensift region, and Kasba-Tadla and Rabat-Sale for the Bouregreg region, data from four other stations (Tanger, Fes, Agadir and Ouarzazate) from outside the regions were added. Extremes are defined by using as thresholds the 1st, 5th, 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles. Results show upward trends in maximum and minimum temperatures of both regions and no generalized trends in rainfall amounts. Changes in cold events are larger than those for warm events, and the number of very cold events decrease significantly in the whole studied area. The southern region is the most affected with the changes of the temperature regime. Most of the trends found in rainfall heavy events are positive with weak magnitudes even though no statistically significant generalized trends could be identified during both seasons.

  12. Heavy Rainfall Monitoring by Polarimetric C-Band Weather Radars

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberto Cremonini

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Piemonte region, in the north-western Italy, is characterized by complex orography and Mediterranean influence that often causes extreme rainfall event, during the warm season. Although the region is monitored by a dense gauge network (more than one gauge per 100 km2, the ground measurements are often inadequate to properly observe intense and highly variable precipitations. Polarimetric weather radars provide a unique way to monitor rainfall over wide areas, with the required spatial detail and temporal resolution. Nevertheless, most European weather radar networks are operating at C-band, which may seriously limit quantitative precipitation estimation in heavy rainfall due to relevant power signal attenuation. Phase measurements, unlike power measurements, are not affected by signal attenuation. For this reason, polarimetric radars, for which the differential phase shift measurements are available, provide an additional way in which to estimate precipitation, which is immune to signal attenuation. In this work differential phase based rainfall estimation techniques are applied to analyze two flash-floods: the first one occurred on the Ligurian Apennines on 16 August 2006 and the second occurred on 13 September 2008, causing rain accumulations above 270 mm in few hours.

  13. Risk Analysis of Extreme Rainfall Effects on the Shihmen Reservoir

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, Y.; Lien, W.; Tung, C.

    2009-12-01

    Typhoon Morakot intruded Taiwan during 7th and 8th of August 2009, brought about 2,700 mm of total rainfall which caused serious flood and debris to the southern region of Taiwan. One of the serious flooded areas is in the downstream of Zengwen reservoir. People believed that the large amount of floodwater released from Zengwen reservoir led to the severe inundation. Therefore, the Shihmen reservoir is one of the important reservoirs in northern Taiwan. The Taipei metropolis, which is in downstream of Shihmen reservoir, is the political and economical center of Taiwan. If heavy rainfall as those brought by Typhoon Marakot falls in the Shihmen reservoir watershed, it may create a bigger disaster. This study focused on the impacts of a typhoon, like Morakot, in Shihmen reservoir. The hydrological model is used to simulate the reservoir inflows under different rainfall conditions. The reservoir water balance model is developed to calculate reservoir’s storage and outflows under the inflows and operational rules. The ability of flood mitigation is also evaluated. Besides, the released floodwater from reservoir and the inflows from different tributaries are used to determine whether or not the river stage will overtop levee. Also, the maximum released floodwater and other inflows which could lead to damages will be stated. Lastly, the criteria of rainfall conditions and initial stages of reservoir will be analyzed in this study.

  14. Trends in rainfall and rainfall-related extremes in the east coast of ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The east of peninsular Malaysia is not an exception for this, considering the evidence of heavy rainfall resulting in floods as an annual phenomenon and also water scarcity due to long dry spells in the region. This study examines recent trends in rainfall and rainfallrelated extremes such as, maximum daily rainfall, number of ...

  15. Developing An Explanatory Prediction Model Based On Rainfall Patterns For Cholera Outbreaks In Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Merwe, M. R.; Du Preez, M.

    2012-12-01

    Cholera has become endemic in coastal and inland areas within the tropics as well as areas outside of the tropics in Africa. Climate conditions and weather patterns differ between areas reporting cholera cases in Africa. Some areas experience two rainfall seasons compared to areas with only one rainfall season in a year. Further, climate variability or ENSO events affect local weather conditions differently. La Niña, i.e. cold events lead to higher than normal rainfall in areas in southern Africa compared to areas close to the equator in eastern Africa which report less than normal rainfall. Time series analysis of cholera cases and rainfall data at different spatial resolutions highlight the overlap of the rainfall season with the reporting of cholera cases. Cholera cases are also reported in between rainy seasons in different areas but the incidence is significantly less compared to the rainy season. An increase in the intensity of outbreaks is also noted during the rainy season following a drier than normal 'dry' season. This necessitates the understanding of the reasons for the observed correlation between rainfall season and cholera outbreaks in order to develop a prediction model which can accurately predict the likelihood of an outbreak. Due to the complexities associated with accurately predicting weather data more than seven days ahead of time it is necessary to identify global drivers with a lagged effect on local rainfall patterns. Climate variability, i.e. ENSO is investigated at different temporal scales; spatial locations and time lags. Sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTa) measured closed to the equator and in the southern parts of the Indian Ocean are more closely associated with rainfall anomalies at specific time lags in equatorial, East African, south East African and central African areas compared to SSTa measured in different regions in the Pacific Ocean. An explanatory prediction model is developed for conditions in Mozambique (coastal

  16. Properties of 8-inch photomultiplier tubes for a large volume imaging water Cerenkov detector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oehler, Ch.

    1996-01-01

    In the Institut fuer Kernphysik I conceptional studies for a possible succession project for the KARMEN-ν-detector are performed. This design studies propose to build a large volume 1300 t imaging water Cerenkov detector. The main goal of this experiment will be the investigation of ν-e - -scattering in the medium energy range up to 50 MeV. The sensitive surface of this detector will be instrumented with about 3000 8-inch photomultiplier tubes (PMT) providing a coverage of 20%. In the framework of this detector design, studies of the properties of hemispherical 8-inch phototubes have been investigated in this work. The topic was to optimise the quality of the important PMT properties like time- and energy-resolution which are crucial to achieve the required spatial and angular resolutions. A second task of this work was to construct a test facility for the PMT, with the possibility to test large quantities. Monte Carlo calculations show that the required detector resolutions of σ E /E(E e ≤50 MeV)=5.2%+47%/√E, σ t (E e ∼30 MeV)=0.6 ns, σ x (E e ∼30 MeV)=13 cm, σ Θ (E e ∼30 MeV)=20 , can be achieved if the phototubes have a transit-time spread less than 1 ns. Up to now, two different 8-inch tubes are available and have been tested, the HAMAMATSU R5912 and the EMI 9353. (orig.)

  17. A satellite rainfall retrieval technique over northern Algeria based on the probability of rainfall intensities classification from MSG-SEVIRI

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lazri, Mourad; Ameur, Soltane

    2016-09-01

    In this paper, an algorithm based on the probability of rainfall intensities classification for rainfall estimation from Meteosat Second Generation/Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (MSG-SEVIRI) has been developed. The classification scheme uses various spectral parameters of SEVIRI that provide information about cloud top temperature and optical and microphysical cloud properties. The presented method is developed and trained for the north of Algeria. The calibration of the method is carried out using as a reference rain classification fields derived from radar for rainy season from November 2006 to March 2007. Rainfall rates are assigned to rain areas previously identified and classified according to the precipitation formation processes. The comparisons between satellite-derived precipitation estimates and validation data show that the developed scheme performs reasonably well. Indeed, the correlation coefficient presents a significant level (r:0.87). The values of POD, POFD and FAR are 80%, 13% and 25%, respectively. Also, for a rainfall estimation of about 614 mm, the RMSD, Bias, MAD and PD indicate 102.06(mm), 2.18(mm), 68.07(mm) and 12.58, respectively.

  18. Stream II-V5: Revision Of Stream II-V4 To Account For The Effects Of Rainfall Events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, K.

    2010-01-01

    STREAM II-V4 is the aqueous transport module currently used by the Savannah River Site emergency response Weather Information Display (WIND) system. The transport model of the Water Quality Analysis Simulation Program (WASP) was used by STREAM II to perform contaminant transport calculations. WASP5 is a US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) water quality analysis program that simulates contaminant transport and fate through surface water. STREAM II-V4 predicts peak concentration and peak concentration arrival time at downstream locations for releases from the SRS facilities to the Savannah River. The input flows for STREAM II-V4 are derived from the historical flow records measured by the United States Geological Survey (USGS). The stream flow for STREAM II-V4 is fixed and the flow only varies with the month in which the releases are taking place. Therefore, the effects of flow surge due to a severe storm are not accounted for by STREAM II-V4. STREAM II-V4 has been revised to account for the effects of a storm event. The steps used in this method are: (1) generate rainfall hyetographs as a function of total rainfall in inches (or millimeters) and rainfall duration in hours; (2) generate watershed runoff flow based on the rainfall hyetographs from step 1; (3) calculate the variation of stream segment volume (cross section) as a function of flow from step 2; (4) implement the results from steps 2 and 3 into the STREAM II model. The revised model (STREAM II-V5) will find the proper stream inlet flow based on the total rainfall and rainfall duration as input by the user. STREAM II-V5 adjusts the stream segment volumes (cross sections) based on the stream inlet flow. The rainfall based stream flow and the adjusted stream segment volumes are then used for contaminant transport calculations.

  19. Padrões das síndromes de dispersão de plantas em áreas com diferentes graus de pluviosidade, PE, Brasil Patterns of dispersal syndromes of plants in areas with different total rainfall, Pernambuco State, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Carolina Nunes Alves da Silva

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Este trabalho objetivou descrever as proporções de síndromes de dispersão em três remanescentes de vegetação nativa com distintos totais pluviométricos e número de meses secos. Durante três anos, foram coletados mensalmente frutos e diásporos de 107 espécies, os quais foram analisados e descritos. As áreas com precipitação inferior a 700 mm/ano (Floresta e Caruaru assemelham-se em todas as síndromes de dispersão analisadas (autocoria, anemocoria e zoocoria, enquanto que Tapacurá (precipitação média anual de 1299 mm distancia-se principalmente pela zoocoria, que variou de 29% (Floresta a 51% (Tapacurá. Em termos de estratificação vertical das síndromes de dispersão, houve maior proporção de zoocoria no sub-bosque de Tapacurá, enquanto que nas áreas mais secas (Floresta e Caruaru a autocoria e anemocoria foram representativas no dossel. Este trabalho mostra que, associados à diminuição da pluviosidade, os vetores abióticos tornam-se mais importantes e que as proporções das síndromes de dispersão variam de acordo com a estratificação.This study aimed to describe the proportion of dispersal syndromes in three remnants of native vegetation with distinct total rainfall and number of dry months. During three years of monthly sampling we collected and described fruits and diaspores of 107 species. The areas with precipitation less than 700 mm/year (Floresta and Caruaru showed similar proportions of dispersal syndromes (autochory, anemochory and zoochory, whereas Tapacurá (mean annual precipitation 1300 mm was distinguished mainly by zoochory, which varied from 29% (Floresta to 51% (Tapacurá of the species. The distribution of dispersal syndromes along a vertical gradient showed a higher proportion of zoochory in the understory of more humid areas such as Tapacurá, while in drier areas (Floresta and Caruaru autochory and anemochory were more representative in the canopy. These results indicate that the abiotic

  20. Spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall and drought characteristics across the Pearl River basin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Shulin; Chen, Tan; Yang, Ni; Qu, Lean; Li, Manchun; Chen, Dong

    2018-04-01

    Understanding rainfall trends as well as drought characteristics plays a key role in watershed development and management. In this study, the spatial and temporal characteristics of rainfall and drought based on temperature and precipitation data observed in 48 meteorological stations from 1959 to 2012 across the Pearl River Basin in China were analyzed. The possible influence of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and El Nino Modoki (ENSO_M) events on seasonal drought based on the Standardized Precipitation-evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) were also investigated. The results show that annual and seasonal rainfall decreased slightly in most areas, annual and seasonal daily precipitation concentration decreased in a few areas, monthly rainfall had an irregular distribution but with no significant trend detected, and rainfall seasonality increased in most areas. Drought tended to worsen during recent years, especially in the upper reaches, and seasonal drought also tended to become serious or occurred frequently across the Pearl River Basin. The drought patterns are not only related to the decreasing trends in rainfall but also to changes in the daily rainfall concentration, monthly rainfall heterogeneity, and rainfall seasonality. Both ENSO and ENSO_M events had an influence on summer drought in the middle-upper reaches. The ENSO events dominated the patterns of autumn drought in the Pearl River Delta, and the ENSO_M events strongly affected the changing patterns of autumn drought in the middle-upper reaches and northern parts of the middle-lower reaches. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Spatio-temporal variability and trends of precipitation and extreme rainfall events in Ethiopia in 1980-2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gummadi, Sridhar; Rao, K. P. C.; Seid, Jemal; Legesse, Gizachew; Kadiyala, M. D. M.; Takele, Robel; Amede, Tilahun; Whitbread, Anthony

    2017-12-01

    This article summarizes the results from an analysis conducted to investigate the spatio-temporal variability and trends in the rainfall over Ethiopia over a period of 31 years from 1980 to 2010. The data is mostly observed station data supplemented by bias-corrected AgMERRA climate data. Changes in annual and Belg (March-May) and Kiremt (June to September) season rainfalls and rainy days have been analysed over the entire Ethiopia. Rainfall is characterized by high temporal variability with coefficient of variation (CV, %) varying from 9 to 30% in the annual, 9 to 69% during the Kiremt season and 15-55% during the Belg season rainfall amounts. Rainfall variability increased disproportionately as the amount of rainfall declined from 700 to 100 mm or less. No significant trend was observed in the annual rainfall amounts over the country, but increasing and decreasing trends were observed in the seasonal rainfall amounts in some areas. A declining trend is also observed in the number of rainy days especially in Oromia, Benishangul-Gumuz and Gambella regions. Trends in seasonal rainfall indicated a general decline in the Belg season and an increase in the Kiremt season rainfall amounts. The increase in rainfall during the main Kiremt season along with the decrease in the number of rainy days leads to an increase in extreme rainfall events over Ethiopia. The trends in the 95th-percentile rainfall events illustrate that the annual extreme rainfall events are increasing over the eastern and south-western parts of Ethiopia covering Oromia and Benishangul-Gumuz regions. During the Belg season, extreme rainfall events are mostly observed over central Ethiopia extending towards the southern part of the country while during the Kiremt season, they are observed over parts of Oromia, (covering Borena, Guji, Bali, west Harerge and east Harerge), Somali, Gambella, southern Tigray and Afar regions. Changes in the intensity of extreme rainfall events are mostly observed over south

  2. Photometric Typing Analyses of Three Young Supernovae with the Robotic Palomar 60-Inch Telescope

    OpenAIRE

    Rajala, Anne M.; Fox, Derek B.; Gal-Yam, Avishay; Leonard, Douglas C.; Soderberg, Alicia M.; Kulkarni, S. R.; Cenko, S. Bradley; Moon, Dae-Sik; Harrison, Fiona A.

    2004-01-01

    We present photometric typing analyses of three young supernovae observed with the Robotic 60-inch Telescope at Palomar Observatory (P60). This represents the first time that such photo-typing has been attempted, in a blind fashion, on newly-discovered supernovae. For one of the target supernovae, SN2004cs, our photometry provided the first constraint on the SN type, which we predicted would be type Ia. To the contrary, however, our subsequent Keck spectroscopy shows it to be an unusual type ...

  3. First thin AC-coupled silicon strip sensors on 8-inch wafers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bergauer, T., E-mail: thomas.bergauer@oeaw.ac.at [Institute of High Energy Physics of the Austrian Academy of Sciences, Nikolsdorfer Gasse 18, 1050 Wien (Vienna) (Austria); Dragicevic, M.; König, A. [Institute of High Energy Physics of the Austrian Academy of Sciences, Nikolsdorfer Gasse 18, 1050 Wien (Vienna) (Austria); Hacker, J.; Bartl, U. [Infineon Technologies Austria AG, Siemensstrasse 2, 9500 Villach (Austria)

    2016-09-11

    The Institute of High Energy Physics (HEPHY) in Vienna and the semiconductor manufacturer Infineon Technologies Austria AG developed a production process for planar AC-coupled silicon strip sensors manufactured on 200 μm thick 8-inch p-type wafers. In late 2015, the first wafers were delivered featuring the world's largest AC-coupled silicon strip sensors. Detailed electrical measurements were carried out at HEPHY, where single strip and global parameters were measured. Mechanical studies were conducted and the long-term behavior was investigated using a climate chamber. Furthermore, the electrical properties of various test structures were investigated to validate the quality of the manufacturing process.

  4. Elemental Water Impact Test: Phase 2 36-Inch Aluminum Tank Head

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vassilakos, Gregory J.

    2014-01-01

    Spacecraft are being designed based on LS-DYNA simulations of water landing impacts. The Elemental Water Impact Test (EWIT) series was undertaken to assess the accuracy of LS-DYNA water impact simulations. EWIT Phase 2 featured a 36-inch aluminum tank head. The tank head was outfitted with one accelerometer, twelve pressure transducers, three string potentiometers, and four strain gages. The tank head was dropped from heights of 1 foot and 2 feet. The focus of this report is the correlation of analytical models against test data. As a measure of prediction accuracy, peak responses from the baseline LS-DYNA model were compared to peak responses from the tests.

  5. The 88-Inch Cyclotron: A One-Stop Facility for Electronics Radiation and Detector Testing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kireeff Covo, M.; Albright, R. A.; Ninemire, B. F.; Johnson, M. B.; Hodgkinson, A.; Loew, T.; Benitez, J. Y.; Todd, D. S.; Xie, D. Z.; Perry, T.; Phair, L.; Bernsteiny, L. A.; Bevins, J.; Brown, J. A.; Goldblum, B. L.; Harasty, M.; Harrig, K. P.; Laplace, T. A.; Matthews, E. F.; Bushmaker, A.; Walker, D.; Oklejas, V.; Hopkins, A. R.; Bleuel, D. L.; Chen, J.; Cronin, S. B.

    2017-10-01

    In outer space down to the altitudes routinely flown by larger aircrafts, radiation can pose serious issues for microelectronics circuits. The 88-Inch Cyclotron at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory is a sector-focused cyclotron and home of the Berkeley Accelerator Space Effects Facility, where the effects of energetic particles on sensitive microelectronics are studied with the goal of designing electronic systems for the space community. This paper describes the flexibility of the facility and its capabilities for testing the bombardment of electronics by heavy ions, light ions, and neutrons. Experimental capabilities for the generation of neutron beams from deuteron breakups and radiation testing of carbon nanotube field effect transistor will be discussed.

  6. Maximum daily rainfall in South Korea

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    extreme value distributions to model rainfall data from South Korea. Keywords. Annual maximum daily rainfall; extreme value theory; generalized extreme value distribution; Gumbel distribution; return levels; trend; data analysis, ..... Pareto distribution and Markov chain based mod- els. One could fit these distributions to the ...

  7. Maximum daily rainfall in South Korea

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    data at Belgrade, Yugoslavia; Atmosfera 5 47–56. Nguyen V T V, Nguyen T D and Wang H 1998 Regional estimation of short duration rainfall extremes; Water Sci- ence and Technology 37 15–19. Nguyen V T V, Nguyen T D and Ashkar F 2002 Regional fre- quency analysis of extreme rainfalls; Water Science and.

  8. Statistical Modelling of Extreme Rainfall in Taiwan

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L-F. Chu (Lan-Fen); M.J. McAleer (Michael); C-C. Chang (Ching-Chung)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper, the annual maximum daily rainfall data from 1961 to 2010 are modelled for 18 stations in Taiwan. We fit the rainfall data with stationary and non-stationary generalized extreme value distributions (GEV), and estimate their future behaviour based on the best fitting model.

  9. Statistical Modelling of Extreme Rainfall in Taiwan

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L. Chu (LanFen); M.J. McAleer (Michael); C-H. Chang (Chu-Hsiang)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper, the annual maximum daily rainfall data from 1961 to 2010 are modelled for 18 stations in Taiwan. We fit the rainfall data with stationary and non-stationary generalized extreme value distributions (GEV), and estimate their future behaviour based on the best fitting model.

  10. Maximum daily rainfall in South Korea

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Annual maxima of daily rainfall for the years 1961–2001 are modeled for five locations in South Korea (chosen to give a good geographical representation of the country). The generalized extreme value distribution is fitted to data from each location to describe the extremes of rainfall and to predict its future behavior.

  11. Relationship between summer monsoon rainfall and cyclogenesis ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    In this study, an attempt has been made to examine the relationship between summer monsoon rainfall (June–September) and the total number of depressions, cyclones and severe cyclones (TNDC) over Bay of Bengal during the post-monsoon (October–December) season. The seasonal rainfall of the subdivisions ...

  12. Relationship between rainfall and microbiological contamination of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Outbreaks of contamination events in many developing countries occur during periods of peak rainfall. This study presents evidence of direct pulse response of shallow groundwater contamination events to rainfall in Northern Mozambique. The objective of the paper is to establish both a statistical relationship between ...

  13. 10 Characterisation of Seasonal Rainfall.cdr

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Administrator

    These observations seem to reveal that long-term or climatological observations alone are no longer sufficient for seasonal rainfall prediction to aid .... W. Index values for six consecutive months are considered. If the index values are ..... could be described as extreme ENSO events, have high rainfall variability during the.

  14. Spatial variability and rainfall characteristics of Kerala

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Geographical regions of covariability in precipitation over the Kerala state are exposed using factor analysis. The results suggest that Kerala can be divided into three unique rainfall regions, each region having a similar covariance structure of annual rainfall. Stations north of 10°N (north Kerala) fall into one group and they ...

  15. ANALYSIS OF RAINFALL TREND IN ETHIOPIA INTRODUCTION

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Agricultural production in Ethiopia highly depends on rainfall and it is predominantly rain- fed. Variation of rainfall in space and time affects even the agricultural production system in the country. These have made the country vulnerable to famine. The famine is usually caused by drought. Historically, Ethiopia was affected ...

  16. Predicting of soil erosion with regarding to rainfall erosivity and soil erodibility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suif, Zuliziana; Razak, Mohd Amirun Anis Ab; Ahmad, Nordila

    2018-02-01

    The soil along the hill and slope are wearing away due to erosion and it can take place due to occurrence of weak and heavy rainfall. The aim of this study is to predict the soil erosion degree in Universiti Pertahanan Nasional Malaysia (UPNM) area focused on two major factor which is soil erodibility and rainfall erosivity. Soil erodibility is the possibilities of soil to detach and carried away during rainfall and runoff. The "ROM" scale was used in this study to determine the degree of soil erodibility, namely low, moderate, high, and very high. As for rainfall erosivity, the erosive power caused by rainfall that cause soil loss. A daily rainfall data collected from January to April was analyzed by using ROSE index classification to identify the potential risk of soil erosion. The result shows that the soil erodibilty are moderate at MTD`s hill, high at behind of block Lestari and Landslide MTD hill, and critical at behind the mess cadet. While, the highest rainfall erosivity was recorded in March and April. Overall, this study would benefit the organization greatly in saving cost in landslide protection as relevant authorities can take early measures repairing the most affected area of soil erosion.

  17. A TRMM-Calibrated Infrared Technique for Convective and Stratiform Rainfall: Analysis and Validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Negri, Andrew; Starr, David OC. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    A satellite infrared technique with passive microwave calibration has been developed for estimating convective and stratiform rainfall. The Convective-Stratiform Technique, calibrated by coincident, physically retrieved rain rates from the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI), has been applied to 30 min interval GOES infrared data and aggregated over seasonal and yearly periods over northern South America. The diurnal cycle of rainfall, as well as the division between convective and stratiform rainfall is presented. For the period Jan-April 1999, analysis revealed significant effects of local circulations (river breeze, land/sea breeze, mountain/valley) on both the total rainfall and it's diurnal cycle. Results compared well (a one-hour lag) with the diurnal cycle derived from TOGA radar-estimated rainfall in Rondonia. The satellite estimates revealed that the convective rain constituted 24% of the rain area while accounting for 67% of the rain volume. Estimates of the diurnal cycle (both total rainfall and convective/stratiform) for an area encompassing the Amazon Basin (3 x 10(exp 6) sq km) were in phase with those from the TRMM Precipitation Radar, despite the latter's limited sampling. Results will be presented comparing the yearly (2000) diurnal cycle for large regions (including the Amazon Basin), and an intercomparison of January-March estimates for three years, (1999-2001). We hope to demonstrate the utility of using the TRMM PR observations as verification for infrared estimates of the diurnal cycle, and as verification of the apportionment of rainfall into convective and stratiform components.

  18. Paso Robles vineyard irrigation study provides benchmark data to assist future area groundwater management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark C. Battany

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Accurate information on irrigation water usage does not exist in many areas where groundwater is the primary water source. This lack of information will hinder efforts to manage these groundwater basins sustainably according to current and future water regulations and policies. Using a low-cost methodology of irrigation-line pressure sensors connected to data loggers, we estimated irrigation applications at 84 vineyard sites in the Paso Robles Groundwater Basin over 4 years (2010–2013. We compared irrigation amounts with the preceding winter's rainfall and with the growing season reference evapotranspiration (ETo. Over the study period, the average annual irrigation application was 11.46 inches (291 millimeters. The average annual application correlated inversely to the preceding winter's rainfall, while the irrigation over the growing season (April–October correlated directly with the ETo over this same period. This study provides an initial data framework that can be used by groundwater sustainability agencies to help manage groundwater in the Paso Robles area. The methodology also could be utilized in other regions to estimate regional irrigation usage while maintaining anonymity for participants.

  19. Building rainfall thresholds for large-scales landslides by extracting occurrence time of landslides from seismic records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yen, Hsin-Yi; Lin, Guan-Wei

    2017-04-01

    Understanding the rainfall condition which triggers mass moment on hillslope is the key to forecast rainfall-induced slope hazards, and the exact time of landslide occurrence is one of the basic information for rainfall statistics. In the study, we focused on large-scale landslides (LSLs) with disturbed area larger than 10 ha and conducted a string of studies including the recognition of landslide-induced ground motions and the analyses of different terms of rainfall thresholds. More than 10 heavy typhoons during the periods of 2005-2014 in Taiwan induced more than hundreds of LSLs and provided the opportunity to characterize the rainfall conditions which trigger LSLs. A total of 101 landslide-induced seismic signals were identified from the records of Taiwan seismic network. These signals exposed the occurrence time of landslide to assess rainfall conditions. Rainfall analyses showed that LSLs occurred when cumulative rainfall exceeded 500 mm. The results of rainfall-threshold analyses revealed that it is difficult to distinct LSLs from small-scale landslides (SSLs) by the I-D and R-D methods, but the I-R method can achieve the discrimination. Besides, an enhanced three-factor threshold considering deep water content was proposed as the rainfall threshold for LSLs.

  20. Evidence of climatic change in Nigeria based on annual series of rainfall of different daily amounts, 1919-1985

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Olaniran, O.J. (University of Ilorin, Ilorin (Nigeria). Dept. of Geography)

    1991-10-01

    Annual series of light rainfall, moderate rainfall and heavy rainfall are computed for 4 zones arranged from south to north in Nigeria: Coastal, Guinea-Savanna, Midland and Sahelian zones. Daily rainfall data for the period 1919-85 are utilized. Each series is examined for evidence of change in structure in terms of pattern of decrease and increase in dry and wet years, the overall trend, and the occurrence of runs of dry and wet years. The northern Nigeria (Midland and Sahel) heavy rainfall series and the Sahel moderate rainfall series are found to depict evidence of climatic change as defined by Landsberg (1975) that climatic conditions must change to a new equilibrium position with the values of climatic elements changed significantly. On the other hand Landsberg's definition of climatic fluctuations as involving temporary deflection which can revert to earlier conditions is found to fit the 4 regional light rainfall series and the Midland area moderate rainfall series. The southern Nigeria moderate and heavy rainfall series are found to depict only evidence of high frequency oscillations about a stable long-term mean. The recent drought in Nigeria north of about 9{degree}N is shown to be associated with a large decline in moderate and heavy rainfalls over this part of the country. 23 refs., 4 figs., 3 tabs.

  1. High-Volume Production of Lightweight, Multi-Junction Solar Cells Using 6-inch GaAs, Phase II

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — In the proposed Phase II program, we will transition MicroLink's 6-inch epitaxial lift-off (ELO) solar cell fabrication process into a manufacturing platform capable...

  2. Warning Model for Shallow Landslides Induced by Extreme Rainfall

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lien-Kwei Chien

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available In this study, the geophysical properties of the landslide-prone catchment of the Gaoping River in Taiwan were investigated using zones based on landslide history in conjunction with landslide analysis using a deterministic approach based on the TRIGRS (Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Regional Slope-Stability model. Typhoon Morakot in 2009 was selected as a simulation scenario to calibrate the combination of geophysical parameters in each zone before analyzing changes in the factor of safety (FS. Considering the amount of response time required for typhoons, suitable FS thresholds for landslide warnings are proposed for each town in the catchment area. Typhoon Fanapi of 2010 was used as a test scenario to verify the applicability of the FS as well as the efficacy of the cumulative rainfall thresholds derived in this study. Finally, the amount of response time provided by the FS thresholds in cases of yellow and red alerts was determined. All five of the landslide events reported by the Soil and Water Conservation Bureau were listed among the unstable sites identified in the proposed model, thereby demonstrating its effectiveness and accuracy in determining unstable areas and areas that require evacuation. These cumulative rainfall thresholds provide a valuable reference to guide disaster prevention authorities in the issuance of yellow and red alerts with the ability to reduce losses and save lives.

  3. Recent Improvements in Estimating Convective and Stratiform Rainfall in Amazonia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Negri, Andrew J.

    1999-01-01

    In this paper we present results from the application of a satellite infrared (IR) technique for estimating rainfall over northern South America. Our main objectives are to examine the diurnal variability of rainfall and to investigate the relative contributions from the convective and stratiform components. We apply the technique of Anagnostou et al (1999). In simple functional form, the estimated rain area A(sub rain) may be expressed as: A(sub rain) = f(A(sub mode),T(sub mode)), where T(sub mode) is the mode temperature of a cloud defined by 253 K, and A(sub mode) is the area encompassed by T(sub mode). The technique was trained by a regression between coincident microwave estimates from the Goddard Profiling (GPROF) algorithm (Kummerow et al, 1996) applied to SSM/I data and GOES IR (11 microns) observations. The apportionment of the rainfall into convective and stratiform components is based on the microwave technique described by Anagnostou and Kummerow (1997). The convective area from this technique was regressed against an IR structure parameter (the Convective Index) defined by Anagnostou et al (1999). Finally, rainrates are assigned to the Am.de proportional to (253-temperature), with different rates for the convective and stratiform

  4. Modelling persistence in annual Australia point rainfall

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. P. Whiting

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Annual rainfall time series for Sydney from 1859 to 1999 is analysed. Clear evidence of nonstationarity is presented, but substantial evidence for persistence or hidden states is more elusive. A test of the hypothesis that a hidden state Markov model reduces to a mixture distribution is presented. There is strong evidence of a correlation between the annual rainfall and climate indices. Strong evidence of persistence of one of these indices, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO, is presented together with a demonstration that this is better modelled by fractional differencing than by a hidden state Markov model. It is shown that conditioning the logarithm of rainfall on PDO, the Southern Oscillation index (SOI, and their interaction provides realistic simulation of rainfall that matches observed statistics. Similar simulation models are presented for Brisbane, Melbourne and Perth. Keywords: Hydrological persistence,hidden state Markov models, fractional differencing, PDO, SOI, Australian rainfall

  5. Tea shoot production in relation to rainfall, solar radiation, and temperature in Pagilaran tea estate, Batang

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yudono, P.

    2000-01-01

    Tea shoot production pattern in PT Pagilaran tea estate, Batang, is studied in relation to rainfall, solar radiation, and temperature. Pagilaran tea estate is located at 700-1,500 m above the sea level, with temperature of 15-30 deg. C and rainfall ranging from 4,500 mm to 7,000 mm per year. However, the area is also characterized by two up to three dry months for every three years. Monthly data of rainfall, solar radiation, and temperature were collected and were related to tea shoot production using correlation and regression analysis. The results indicated that there was no significant different pattern of tea shoot production form the three estate units (Kayulandak, Pagilaran, and Andongsili). Monthly shoots production increases during October up to December, and then goes down in January up to February. It fluctuated at a lesser degree in the upper units (Kayulandak and Andongsili) which might be attributed to better soil moisture available in the area. They are right below a forests area which understandably serves as rainfall catchment area and maintains soil moisture of the area below in a better condition. Weak to moderate correlation was obtained when monthly tea shoot production was correlated to amount of rainfall (r = -0.3771), days of rainfall (r = -0.3512), maximum temperature (r = -0.3502), minimum temperature (r = -0.2786), and solar radiation (r=0.6607) of the same month. On regressing monthly tea shoot production to those variables, rainfall and duration of solar radiation turned out to be the two significant factors through the following equation y = 759.5616-0.1802 xi-1 + 0.1057 xi-2 + 0.5239 zi-1 (R at the power of 2 = 0.3398), where y = tea shoots production, x=amount of monthly rainfall, z=duration of solar radiation, and i refer to month [in

  6. Stand Development 25 Years after a 9.0-inch Diameter-Limit First Cutting In Appalachian Hardwoods

    Science.gov (United States)

    H. Clay Smith; N. I. Lamson

    1977-01-01

    This report is a case history of stand development 25 years after a 9.0-inch diameter-limit cutting in a primarily second growth 40- to 45-year-old Appalachian hardwood stand. Some old residual trees from the early 1900 logging era were scattered throughout the stand. In 1950, a 9.0-inch diameter-limit cutting removed 8,650 board feet per acre and reduced the basal...

  7. In search for relationships between lightning and rainfall with a rectangular grid-box methodology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. C. Michaelides

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available The rainfall and lightning activity associated with three depressions which affected the area of Cyprus were studied in order to identify possible relationships between them. The lightning data were provided by the National Observatory of Athens, Greece, and were spatially and statistically related to the corresponding rainfall measurements from the rain gauge network of the Cyprus Meteorological Service. The study was carried out by using a rectangular grid-box methodology and various combinations of lightning and rainfall data filtering and time-lags were tested.

  8. Applications of high resolution rainfall radar data to quantify water temperature dynamics in urban catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Croghan, Danny; Van Loon, Anne; Bradley, Chris; Sadler, Jon; Hannnah, David

    2017-04-01

    intensity at which these storm deviations occur for each logger, from which the relative effects of land use and other catchment characteristics in each sub-catchment can be assessed. Our use of the rainfall radar data calls into question the validity of using station based data for small scale studies, particularly in urban areas, with high variation apparent in rainfall intensity both spatially and temporally. Variation was particularly high within the heavily urbanised catchment. For water quality studies, high resolution rainfall radar can be implemented to increase the reliability of interpretations of the response of water quality variables to storm water inputs in urban catchments.

  9. Stochastic rainfall synthesis for urban applications using different regionalization methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Callau Poduje, A. C.; Leimbach, S.; Haberlandt, U.

    2017-12-01

    The proper design and efficient operation of urban drainage systems require long and continuous rainfall series in a high temporal resolution. Unfortunately, these time series are usually available in a few locations and it is therefore suitable to develop a stochastic precipitation model to generate rainfall in locations without observations. The model presented is based on an alternating renewal process and involves an external and an internal structure. The members of these structures are described by probability distributions which are site specific. Different regionalization methods based on site descriptors are presented which are used for estimating the distributions for locations without observations. Regional frequency analysis, multiple linear regressions and a vine-copula method are applied for this purpose. An area located in the north-west of Germany is used to compare the different methods and involves a total of 81 stations with 5 min rainfall records. The site descriptors include information available for the whole region: position, topography and hydrometeorologic characteristics which are estimated from long term observations. The methods are compared directly by cross validation of different rainfall statistics. Given that the model is stochastic the evaluation is performed based on ensembles of many long synthetic time series which are compared with observed ones. The performance is as well indirectly evaluated by setting up a fictional urban hydrological system to test the capability of the different methods regarding flooding and overflow characteristics. The results show a good representation of the seasonal variability and good performance in reproducing the sample statistics of the rainfall characteristics. The copula based method shows to be the most robust of the three methods. Advantages and disadvantages of the different methods are presented and discussed.

  10. Effect of rain gauge density over the accuracy of rainfall: a case study over Bangalore, India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mishra, Anoop Kumar

    2013-12-01

    Rainfall is an extremely variable parameter in both space and time. Rain gauge density is very crucial in order to quantify the rainfall amount over a region. The level of rainfall accuracy is highly dependent on density and distribution of rain gauge stations over a region. Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) have installed a number of Automatic Weather Station (AWS) rain gauges over Indian region to study rainfall. In this paper, the effect of rain gauge density over daily accumulated rainfall is analyzed using ISRO AWS gauge observations. A region of 50 km × 50 km box over southern part of Indian region (Bangalore) with good density of rain gauges is identified for this purpose. Rain gauge numbers are varied from 1-8 in 50 km box to study the variation in the daily accumulated rainfall. Rainfall rates from the neighbouring stations are also compared in this study. Change in the rainfall as a function of gauge spacing is studied. Use of gauge calibrated satellite observations to fill the gauge station value is also studied. It is found that correlation coefficients (CC) decrease from 82% to 21% as gauge spacing increases from 5 km to 40 km while root mean square error (RMSE) increases from 8.29 mm to 51.27 mm with increase in gauge spacing from 5 km to 40 km. Considering 8 rain gauges as a standard representative of rainfall over the region, absolute error increases from 15% to 64% as gauge numbers are decreased from 7 to 1. Small errors are reported while considering 4 to 7 rain gauges to represent 50 km area. However, reduction to 3 or less rain gauges resulted in significant error. It is also observed that use of gauge calibrated satellite observations significantly improved the rainfall estimation over the region with very few rain gauge observations.

  11. Transpiration Response and Growth in Pearl Millet Parental Lines and Hybrids Bred for Contrasting Rainfall Environments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susan Medina

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Under conditions of high vapor pressure deficit (VPD and soil drying, restricting transpiration is an important avenue to gain efficiency in water use. The question we raise in this article is whether breeding for agro-ecological environments that differ for the rainfall have selected for traits that control plant water use. These are measured in pearl millet materials bred for zones varying in rainfall (8 combinations of parent and F1-hybrids, 18 F1-hybrids and then 40 F1-hybrids. In all cases, we found an agro-ecological variation in the slope of the transpiration response to increasing VPD, and parental line variation in the transpiration response to soil drying within hybrids/parent combinations. The hybrids adapted to lower rainfall had higher transpiration response curves than those from the highest rainfall zones, but showed no variation in how transpiration responded to soil drying. The genotypes bred for lower rainfall zones showed lower leaf area, dry matter, thicker leaves, root development, and exudation, than the ones bred for high rainfall zone when grown in the low VPD environment of the greenhouse, but there was no difference in their root length neither on the root/shoot index in these genotypes. By contrast, when grown under high VPD conditions outdoors, the lower rainfall hybrids had the highest leaf, tiller, and biomass development. Finally, under soil drying the genotypes from the lower rainfall accumulated less biomass than the ones from higher rainfall zone, and so did the parental lines compared to the hybrids. These differences in the transpiration response and growth clearly showed that breeding for different agro-ecological zones also bred for different genotype strategies in relation to traits related to plant water use.Highlights:• Variation in transpiration response reflected breeding for agro-ecological zones• Different growth strategies depended on the environmental conditions• Different ideotypes reflected

  12. Urban Growth Causes Significant increase in Extreme Rainfall - A modelling study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pathirana, Assela

    2010-05-01

    World's urban centers are growing rapidly causing the impact of extreme rainfall events felt much more severely due to relatively well unerstood phenomena like decreased infiltration and flow resistance. However, an increasing set of evidence (e.g. heavy rainfall event observed at Nerima, central part of Tokyo metropolitan area, on 21 July 1999) suggest that the extreme rainfall, the driving force itself increases as a result of the microclimatic changes due to urban growth. Urban heat islands(UHI) due to heat anomalies of urban sprawl act as virtual mountains resulting in a local atmosphere more conducive for heavy rainfall. In this study, we employ a popular mesoscale atmoshperic model to numerically simulate the UHI induced rainfall enhancement. Initial idealized experiments conducted under trophical atmospheric conditions indicated that the changes in landuse due to significant urban growth will indeed cause more intense rainfall events. This is largely due to increased convective breakup, causing a favourable situation for convective cloud systems. Five historical heavy rainfall events that caused floods in five urban centres (Dhaka, Mumbai, Colombo, Lyon and Taipei) were selected from historical records. Numerical simulations were setup to assertain what would be the amount of rainfall if the same large-scale atmospheric situations (forcings) occured under a hypothetical situation of doubled urbanization level these events. Significant increases (upto 50%) of extreme rainfall was indicated for many of the events. Under major assumptions, these simulations were used to estimate the anticipated changes in the Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF). The magnitude of the 30min event with 25 year return period increased by about 20 percent. Without considering any changes in the external forcing the urban growth alone could cause very significant increase in local rainfall.

  13. Trends in rainfall and rainfall-related extremes in the east coast of peninsular Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayowa, Olaniya Olusegun; Pour, Sahar Hadi; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Mohsenipour, Morteza; Harun, Sobri Bin; Heryansyah, Arien; Ismail, Tarmizi

    2015-12-01

    The coastlines have been identified as the most vulnerable regions with respect to hydrological hazards as a result of climate change and variability. The east of peninsular Malaysia is not an exception for this, considering the evidence of heavy rainfall resulting in floods as an annual phenomenon and also water scarcity due to long dry spells in the region. This study examines recent trends in rainfall and rainfall- related extremes such as, maximum daily rainfall, number of rainy days, average rainfall intensity, heavy rainfall days, extreme rainfall days, and precipitation concentration index in the east coast of peninsular Malaysia. Recent 40 years (1971-2010) rainfall records from 54 stations along the east coast of peninsular Malaysia have been analyzed using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and the Sen's slope method. The Monte Carlo simulation technique has been used to determine the field significance of the regional trends. The results showed that there was a substantial increase in the annual rainfall as well as the rainfall during the monsoon period. Also, there was an increase in the number of heavy rainfall days during the past four decades.

  14. Addressing rainfall data selection uncertainty using connections between rainfall and streamflow.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, Morgan C; Cohn, Avery; Lopes, Alan Vaz; Thompson, Sally E

    2017-03-16

    Studies of the hydroclimate at regional scales rely on spatial rainfall data products, derived from remotely-sensed (RS) and in-situ (IS, rain gauge) observations. Because regional rainfall cannot be directly measured, spatial data products are biased. These biases pose a source of uncertainty in environmental analyses, attributable to the choices made by data-users in selecting a representation of rainfall. We use the rainforest-savanna transition region in Brazil to show differences in the statistics describing rainfall across nine RS and interpolated-IS daily rainfall datasets covering the period of 1998-2013. These differences propagate into estimates of temporal trends in monthly rainfall and descriptive hydroclimate indices. Rainfall trends from different datasets are inconsistent at river basin scales, and the magnitude of index differences is comparable to the estimated bias in global climate model projections. To address this uncertainty, we evaluate the correspondence of different rainfall datasets with streamflow from 89 river basins. We demonstrate that direct empirical comparisons between rainfall and streamflow provide a method for evaluating rainfall dataset performance across multiple areal (basin) units. These results highlight the need for users of rainfall datasets to quantify this "data selection uncertainty" problem, and either justify data use choices, or report the uncertainty in derived results.

  15. Interannual and Decadal Variability of Summer Rainfall over South America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Jiayu; Lau, K.-M.

    1999-01-01

    Using the CPC (Climate Prediction Center) Merged Analysis of Precipitation product along with the Goddard Earth Observing System reanalysis and the Climate Analysis Center sea surface temperature (SST) data, we conduct a diagnostic study of the interannual and decadal scale variability of summer rainfall over South America. Results show three leading modes of rainfall variation identified with interannual, decadal, and long-term trend variability. Together, these modes explain more than half the total variance. The first mode is highly correlated with El Nino/southern oscillation (ENSO), showing severe drought over Northeast Brazil and copious rainfall over the Ecuador coast and the area of Uruguay-Southern Brazil in El Nino years. This pattern is attributed to the large scale zonal shift of the Walker circulation and local Hadley cell anomaly induced by positive (negative) SST anomaly over the eastern (western) equatorial Pacific. In El Nino years, two convective belts indicated by upper tropospheric velocity potential trough and mid-tropospheric rising motion, which are somewhat symmetric about the equator, extend toward the northeast and the southeast into the tropical North and South Atlantic respectively. Sandwiched between the ascent is a region of descending motion over Northeast Brazil. The southern branch of the anomalous Hadley cell is dynamically linked to the increase of rainfall over Uruguay-Southern Brazil. The regional response of anomalous circulation shows a stronger South American summer monsoon and an enhanced (weakened) subtropical high over the South Atlantic (South Pacific) Ocean. The decadal variation displays a meridional shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), which is tie to the anomalous cross-equatorial SST gradient over the Atlantic and the eastern Pacific. In conjunction with this mode is a large scale mass swing between the polar regions and midlatitudes in both hemispheres. Over the South Atlantic and the South Pacific

  16. Recommendations for protecting against failure by brittle fracture: Category II and III ferritic steel shipping containers with wall thickness greater than four inches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schwartz, M.W.; Fischer, L.E.

    1996-08-01

    This report provides criteria for selecting ferritic steels that would prevent brittle fracture in Category II and III shipping containers with wall thickness greater than 4 inches. These methods are extensions of those previously used for Category II and III containers less than 4 inches thick and Category I containers more than 4 inches thick

  17. FLASH-FLOOD MODELLING WITH ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS USING RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dinu Cristian

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The use of artificial neural networks (ANNs in modelling the hydrological processes has become a common approach in the last two decades, among side the traditional methods. In regard to the rainfall-runoff modelling, in both traditional and ANN models the use of ground rainfall measurements is prevalent, which can be challenging in areas with low rain gauging station density, especially in catchments where strong focused rainfall can generate flash-floods. The weather radar technology can prove to be a solution for such areas by providing rain estimates with good time and space resolution. This paper presents a comparison between different ANN setups using as input both ground and radar observations for modelling the rainfall-runoff process for Bahluet catchment, with focus on a flash-flood observed in the catchment.

  18. A new alignment procedure for the South African Astronomical Observatory's 74-inch telescope

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crause, Lisa A.; Booth, John A.; Doss, David; Loubser, Egan; O'Connor, James E.; Sass, Craig; Sickafoose, Amanda A.; Worters, Hannah L.

    2016-07-01

    Considerable effort has gone into improving the performance and reliability of the SAAO's 74-inch telescope. This included replacing the telescope encoders, refining the pointing model and increasing the telescope throughput. The latter involved re-aluminising the primary and formulating a procedure to ensure optimal alignment of the telescope mirrors. To this end, we developed the necessary hardware and techniques to ensure that such alignment is achieved and maintained, particularly following re-aluminising of the mirrors. In essence, the procedure involves: placing a Taylor Hobson Alignment Telescope on the mechanical rotation axis of the 74-inch (which we define to be the optical axis, since the Cassegrain instruments attach to the associated turntable), then adjusting the tip/tilt of the secondary mirror to get it onto that axis and, lastly, adjusting the tip/tilt of the primary mirror to eliminate coma. An eyepiece (or wavefront camera) is installed at the Cassegrain port for this final step since comatic star images indicate the need to tip/tilt the primary mirror to align it to the secondary. Tuning out any brightness gradients seen in an out-of-focus image of a bright star may also be used for feedback when adjusting the tip/tilt of the primary mirror to null coma.

  19. A PROTOTYPE FOUR INCH SHORT HYDRIDE (FISH) BED AS A REPLACEMENT TRITIUM STORAGE BED

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Klein, J.; Estochen, E.; Shanahan, K.; Heung, L.

    2011-02-23

    The Savannah River Site (SRS) tritium facilities have used 1st generation (Gen1) metal hydride storage bed assemblies with process vessels (PVs) fabricated from 3 inch nominal pipe size (NPS) pipe to hold up to 12.6 kg of LaNi{sub 4.25}Al{sub 0.75} metal hydride for tritium gas absorption, storage, and desorption for over 15 years. The 2nd generation (Gen2) of the bed design used the same NPS for the PV, but the added internal components produced a bed nominally 1.2 m long, and presented a significant challenge for heater cartridge replacement in a footprint limited glove-box. A prototype 3rd generation (Gen3) metal hydride storage bed has been designed and fabricated as a replacement candidate for the Gen2 storage bed. The prototype Gen3 bed uses a PV pipe diameter of 4 inch NPS so the bed length can be reduced below 0.7 m to facilitate heater cartridge replacement. For the Gen3 prototype bed, modeling results show increased absorption rates when using hydrides with lower absorption pressures. To improve absorption performance compared to the Gen2 beds, a LaNi{sub 4.15}Al{sub 0.85} material was procured and processed to obtain the desired pressure-composition-temperature (PCT) properties. Other bed design improvements are also presented.

  20. Artist autonomy in a digital era: The case of Nine Inch Nails

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven C. Brown

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available A 2009 presentation by Michael Masnick (CEO and founder of insight company Floor64 entitled ‘How Trent Reznor and Nine Inch Nails represent the Future of the Music Business’ brought the success of the business models employed by Reznor in distributing Nine Inch Nails’ music into the spotlight. The present review provides a comprehensive timeline of the band circa 2005-2010, evaluating the success of the distribution methods employed in accordance with Masnick’s (2009 proposed business model of connecting with fans and providing them with a reason to buy. The model is conceptualised in the wider context in which Reznor’s distribution methods take place (including a brief consideration of Radiohead’s much cited pay-what-you- want model, addressing the perceived gaps in the model by exploring the involvement of musical preferences; age and consumer purchasing behavior and fan worship. Implications are discussed concerning the applicability of the model for new and emerging bands.

  1. Separation Efficiency of Nagar Parker China Clay Using Two Inch Hydrocyclone

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdul Ghani Pathan

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Performance efficiency of two inch hydrocyclone has been investigated, using the Nagar Parker china clay. Raw china clay was initially washed with tap water and -75 ?m size fraction was separated through wet sieving. Washed china clay of -75 ?m was used as feed sample in hydrocyclone tests. Solids concentration in slurry was kept as 2.5%. 45 tests were conducted with different combinations of pressure, vortex finder and spigot. Three sizes of spigot viz. 3.2, 2.2 and 1.5mm and three sizes of vortex finder viz. 7.00, 5.5 and 3.00mm were used. Hydrocyclone rig was operated at five different pressures viz. 20, 30, 40, 50 and 60 psi in conjunction with various combinations of vortex finder and spigot. Laser light scattering technique was used for particle size analysis of O/F (Overflow and U/F (Underflow products. Separation efficiency of the hydrocyclone, for various combinations of Vortex Finder, Spigot and operating pressure, was determined for two size fractions, i.e. less than ten micron and less than twenty micron, present in O/F and U/F products. From the results it was concluded that the best separation efficiency of 2 inch hydrocyclone is achieved by using the vortex finder of 7.0mm size and spigot of 1.5mm size. It was also concluded that the separation efficiency of the hydrocyclone decreases by increasing the pressure.

  2. Estimation of Rainfall Erosivity via 1-Minute to Hourly Rainfall Data from Taipei, Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Ting-Yin; Yang, Ssu-Yao; Jan, Chyan-Deng

    2017-04-01

    Soil erosion is a natural process on hillslopes that threats people's life and properties, having a considerable environmental and economic implications for soil degradation, agricultural activity and water quality. The rainfall erosivity factor (R-factor) in the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE), composed of total kinetic energy (E) and the maximum 30-min rainfall intensity (I30), is widely used as an indicator to measure the potential risks of soil loss caused by rainfall at a regional scale. This R factor can represent the detachment and entrainment involved in climate conditions on hillslopes, but lack of 30-min rainfall intensity data usually lead to apply this factor more difficult in many regions. In recent years, fixed-interval, hourly rainfall data is readily available and widely used due to the development of automatic weather stations. Here we assess the estimations of R, E, and I30 based on 1-, 5-, 10-, 15-, 30-, 60-minute rainfall data, and hourly rainfall data obtained from Taipei weather station during 2004 to 2010. Results show that there is a strong correlation among R-factors estimated from different interval rainfall data. Moreover, the shorter time-interval rainfall data (e.g., 1-min) yields larger value of R-factor. The conversion factors of rainfall erosivity (ratio of values estimated from the resolution lower than 30-min rainfall data to those estimated from 60-min and hourly rainfall data, respectively) range from 1.85 to 1.40 (resp. from 1.89 to 1.02) for 60-min (resp. hourly) rainfall data as the time resolution increasing from 30-min to 1-min. This paper provides useful information on estimating R-factor when hourly rainfall data is only available.

  3. An economic analysis of farmers' risk attitudes and farm households' responses to rainfall risk in Tigray Northern Ethiopia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haile Abraha, N.

    2007-01-01

    Keywords: rainfall risk, ex-ante risk management, ex-post risk coping strategies, off-farm labor supply, fertilizer adoption, Northern Ethiopia, Tigray. Rural households in semi-arid areas often experience rainfall-related shocks that result in low and uncertain income. Household’s survival depends

  4. Probabilistic rainfall thresholds for triggering debris flows in a human-modified landscape

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giannecchini, Roberto; Galanti, Yuri; D'Amato Avanzi, Giacomo; Barsanti, Michele

    2016-03-01

    In the Carrara Marble Basin (CMB; Apuan Alps, Italy) quarrying has accumulated widespread and thick quarry waste, lying on steep slopes and invading valley bottoms. The Apuan Alps are one of the rainiest areas in Italy and rainstorms often cause landslides and debris flows. The stability conditions of quarry waste are difficult to assess, owing to its textural, geotechnical and hydrogeological variability. Therefore, empirical rainfall thresholds may be effective in forecasting the possible occurrence of debris flows in the CMB. Three types of thresholds were defined for three rain gauges of the CMB and for the whole area: rainfall intensity-rainfall duration (ID), cumulated event rainfall-rainfall duration (ED), and cumulated event rainfall normalized by the mean annual precipitation-rainfall intensity (EMAPI). The rainfall events recorded from 1950 to 2005 was analyzed and compared with the occurrence of debris flows involving the quarry waste. They were classified in events that triggered one or more debris flows and events that did not trigger debris flows. This dataset was fitted using the logistic regression method that allows us to define a set of thresholds, corresponding to different probabilities of failure (from 10% to 90%) and therefore to different warning levels. The performance of the logistic regression in defining probabilistic thresholds was evaluated by means of contingency tables, skill scores and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. These analyses indicate that the predictive capability of the three types of threshold is acceptable for each rain gauge and for the whole CMB. The best compromise between the number of correct debris flow predictions and the number of wrong predictions is obtained for the 40% probability thresholds. The results obtained can be tested in an experimental debris flows forecasting system based on rainfall thresholds, and could have implications for the debris flow hazard and risk assessment in the CMB.

  5. Soil losses from typic cambisols and red latosol as related to three erosive rainfall patterns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Regimeire Freitas Aquino

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Rainfall erosivity is one of the main factors related to water erosion in the tropics. This work focused on relating soil loss from a typic dystrophic Tb Haplic Cambisol (CXbd and a typic dystrophic Red Latosol (LVdf to different patterns of natural erosive rainfall. The experimental plots of approximately 26 m² (3 x 8.67 m consisted of a CXbd area with a 0.15 m m-1 slope and a LVdf area with 0.12 m m-1 slope, both delimited by galvanized plates. Drainpipes were installed at the lower part of these plots to collect runoff, interconnected with a Geib or multislot divisor. To calculate erosivity (EI30, rainfall data, recorded continuously at a weather station in Lavras, were used. The data of erosive rainfall events were measured (10 mm precipitation intervals, accuracy 0.2 mm, 24 h period, 20 min intervals, characterized as rainfall events with more than 10 mm precipitation, maximum intensity > 24 mm h-1 within 15 min, or kinetic energy > 3.6 MJ, which were used in this study to calculate the rainfall erosivity parameter, were classified according to the moment of peak precipitation intensity in advanced, intermediate and delayed patterns. Among the 139 erosive rainfall events with CXbd soil loss, 60 % were attributed to the advanced pattern, with a loss of 415.9 Mg ha-1, and total losses of 776.0 Mg ha-1. As for the LVdf, of the 93 erosive rainfall events with soil loss, 58 % were listed in the advanced pattern, with 37.8 Mg ha-1 soil loss and 50.9 Mg ha-1 of total soil loss. The greatest soil losses were observed in the advanced rain pattern, especially for the CXbd. From the Cambisol, the soil loss per rainfall event was greatest for the advanced pattern, being influenced by the low soil permeability.

  6. Quality‐control of an hourly rainfall dataset and climatology of extremes for the UK

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Elizabeth; Chan, Steven C.; Fowler, Hayley J.

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT Sub‐daily rainfall extremes may be associated with flash flooding, particularly in urban areas but, compared with extremes on daily timescales, have been relatively little studied in many regions. This paper describes a new, hourly rainfall dataset for the UK based on ∼1600 rain gauges from three different data sources. This includes tipping bucket rain gauge data from the UK Environment Agency (EA), which has been collected for operational purposes, principally flood forecasting. Significant problems in the use of such data for the analysis of extreme events include the recording of accumulated totals, high frequency bucket tips, rain gauge recording errors and the non‐operation of gauges. Given the prospect of an intensification of short‐duration rainfall in a warming climate, the identification of such errors is essential if sub‐daily datasets are to be used to better understand extreme events. We therefore first describe a series of procedures developed to quality control this new dataset. We then analyse ∼380 gauges with near‐complete hourly records for 1992–2011 and map the seasonal climatology of intense rainfall based on UK hourly extremes using annual maxima, n‐largest events and fixed threshold approaches. We find that the highest frequencies and intensities of hourly extreme rainfall occur during summer when the usual orographically defined pattern of extreme rainfall is replaced by a weaker, north–south pattern. A strong diurnal cycle in hourly extremes, peaking in late afternoon to early evening, is also identified in summer and, for some areas, in spring. This likely reflects the different mechanisms that generate sub‐daily rainfall, with convection dominating during summer. The resulting quality‐controlled hourly rainfall dataset will provide considerable value in several contexts, including the development of standard, globally applicable quality‐control procedures for sub‐daily data, the validation of the new

  7. Predictability of the intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics variables over South Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Phakula, S

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available for the homogeneous rainfall regions. Keywords: Retro-active validation, Forecast skill, Area-averaged ROC scores, Reliability diagrams. Introduction Southern Africa is a region of significant rainfall variability on a range of temporal and spacial scales... attributes of the downscaled forecasts are to be tested, namely, discrimination and reliability. For the former relative operating characteristics (ROC) is used and for the latter the attributes or reliability diagram is used. A high ROC score (>0...

  8. Heavy rainfall equations for Santa Catarina, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Álvaro José Back

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Knowledge of intensity-duration-frequency (IDF relationships of rainfall events is extremely important to determine the dimensions of surface drainage structures and soil erosion control. The purpose of this study was to obtain IDF equations of 13 rain gauge stations in the state of Santa Catarina in Brazil: Chapecó, Urussanga, Campos Novos, Florianópolis, Lages, Caçador, Itajaí, Itá, Ponte Serrada, Porto União, Videira, Laguna and São Joaquim. The daily rainfall data charts of each station were digitized and then the annual maximum rainfall series were determined for durations ranging from 5 to 1440 min. Based on these, with the Gumbel-Chow distribution, the maximum rainfall was estimated for durations ranging from 5 min to 24 h, considering return periods of 2, 5, 10, 20, 25, 50, and 100 years,. Data agreement with the Gumbel-Chow model was verified by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, at 5 % significance level. For each rain gauge station, two IDF equations of rainfall events were adjusted, one for durations from 5 to 120 min and the other from 120 to 1440 min. The results show a high variability in maximum intensity of rainfall events among the studied stations. Highest values of coefficients of variation in the annual maximum series of rainfall were observed for durations of over 600 min at the stations of the coastal region of Santa Catarina.

  9. A methodological approach to identify rainfall causing damaging hydrogeological events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrucci, Olga; Aceto, Luigi

    2014-05-01

    The paper deals with Damaging Hydrogeological Events (DHEs), defined as periods of severe weather affecting wide regions for several days, and during which landslides and floods cause economic damage and victims. The great variability of DHEs, in both space and time, is the cause of one of main problems to solve in performing the analysis of these events. Dealing with events affecting wide areas for several days, it is challenging to isolate the rainy days that can be considered as triggering factors of the observed damaging phenomena. In this paper we consider 30 catastrophic DHEs which occurred in Calabria (southern Italy) between 1981 and 2010, and we develop a methodological approach aiming to both select and analyze rainfall events that triggered damage. The performed analysis allows highlighting some seasonal characteristics of Calabrian DHEs. More in general, the proposed approach can be used in regions affected by DHEs for which damage and rainfall data are available. Practical results that could be obtained concern: a) individuation of rainfall thresholds for the triggering of DHEs, at both regional and sub-regional scale; b) individuation of relationships between temporal distribution of rain and types of phenomena triggered; c) individuation of rain/damage relationships at sub-regional scale; and d) analysis of the pattern of rainy days which triggered a long historical series of DHEs, in order to highlight if the most recent events affecting the study area were mainly caused by short and intense rain, as it seems the tendency related to the climate change.

  10. Numerical representation of rainfall field in the Yarmouk River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shentsis, Isabella; Inbar, Nimrod; Magri, Fabien; Rosenthal, Eliyahu

    2017-04-01

    Rainfall is the decisive factors in evaluating the water balance of river basins and aquifers. Accepted methods rely on interpolation and extrapolation of gauged rain to regular grid with high dependence on the density and regularity of network, considering the relief complexity. We propose an alternative method that makes up to those restrictions by taking into account additional physical features of the rain field. The method applies to areas with (i) complex plain- and mountainous topography, which means inhomogeneity of the rainfall field and (ii) non-uniform distribution of a rain gauge network with partial lack of observations. The rain model is implemented in two steps: 1. Study of the rainfall field, based on the climatic data (mean annual precipitation), its description by the function of elevation and other factors, and estimation of model parameters (normalized coefficients of the Taylor series); 2. Estimation of rainfall in each historical year using the available data (less complete and irregular versus climatic data) as well as the a-priori known parameters (by the basic hypothesis on inter-annual stability of the model parameters). The proposed method was developed by Shentsis (1990) for hydrological forecasting in Central Asia and was later adapted to the Lake Kinneret Basin. Here this model (the first step) is applied to the Yarmouk River Basin. The Yarmouk River is the largest tributary of the Jordan River. Its transboundary basin (6,833 sq. km) extends over Syria (5,257 sq.km), Jordan (1,379 sq. km) and Israel (197 sq. km). Altitude varies from 1800 m (and more) to -235 m asl. The total number of rain stations in use is 36 (17 in Syria, 19 in Jordan). There is evidently lack and non-uniform distribution of a rain gauge network in Syria. The Yarmouk Basin was divided into five regions considering typical relationship between mean annual rain and elevation for each region. Generally, the borders of regions correspond to the common topographic

  11. Rainfall Threshold Assessment Corresponding to the Maximum Allowable Turbidity for Source Water.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Shu-Kai S; Kuan, Wen-Hui; Fan, Chihhao; Chen, Chiu-Yang

    2016-12-01

      This study aims to assess the upstream rainfall thresholds corresponding to the maximum allowable turbidity of source water, using monitoring data and artificial neural network computation. The Taipei Water Source Domain was selected as the study area, and the upstream rainfall records were collected for statistical analysis. Using analysis of variance (ANOVA), the cumulative rainfall records of one-day Ping-lin, two-day Ping-lin, two-day Tong-hou, one-day Guie-shan, and one-day Tai-ping (rainfall in the previous 24 or 48 hours at the named weather stations) were found to be the five most significant parameters for downstream turbidity development. An artificial neural network model was constructed to predict the downstream turbidity in the area investigated. The observed and model-calculated turbidity data were applied to assess the rainfall thresholds in the studied area. By setting preselected turbidity criteria, the upstream rainfall thresholds for these statistically determined rain gauge stations were calculated.

  12. Rainfall Variability, Drought Characterization, and Efficacy of Rainfall Data Reconstruction: Case of Eastern Kenya

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Oscar Kisaka

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This study examined the extent of seasonal rainfall variability, drought occurrence, and the efficacy of interpolation techniques in eastern Kenya. Analyses of rainfall variability utilized rainfall anomaly index, coefficients of variance, and probability analyses. Spline, Kriging, and inverse distance weighting interpolation techniques were assessed using daily rainfall data and digital elevation model using ArcGIS. Validation of these interpolation methods was evaluated by comparing the modelled/generated rainfall values and the observed daily rainfall data using root mean square errors and mean absolute errors statistics. Results showed 90% chance of below cropping threshold rainfall (500 mm exceeding 258.1 mm during short rains in Embu for one year return period. Rainfall variability was found to be high in seasonal amounts (CV = 0.56, 0.47, and 0.59 and in number of rainy days (CV = 0.88, 0.49, and 0.53 in Machang’a, Kiritiri, and Kindaruma, respectively. Monthly rainfall variability was found to be equally high during April and November (CV = 0.48, 0.49, and 0.76 with high probabilities (0.67 of droughts exceeding 15 days in Machang’a and Kindaruma. Dry-spell probabilities within growing months were high, (91%, 93%, 81%, and 60% in Kiambere, Kindaruma, Machang’a, and Embu, respectively. Kriging interpolation method emerged as the most appropriate geostatistical interpolation technique suitable for spatial rainfall maps generation for the study region.

  13. Spatiotemporal Scaling Effect on Rainfall Network Design Using Entropy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chiang Wei

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Because of high variation in mountainous areas, rainfall data at different spatiotemporal scales may yield potential uncertainty for network design. However, few studies focus on the scaling effect on both the spatial and the temporal scale. By calculating the maximum joint entropy of hourly typhoon events, monthly, six dry and wet months and annual rainfall between 1992 and 2012 for 1-, 3-, and 5-km grids, the relocated candidate rain gauges in the National Taiwan University Experimental Forest of Central Taiwan are prioritized. The results show: (1 the network exhibits different locations for first prioritized candidate rain gauges for different spatiotemporal scales; (2 the effect of spatial scales is insignificant compared to temporal scales; and (3 a smaller number and a lower percentage of required stations (PRS reach stable joint entropy for a long duration at finer spatial scale. Prioritized candidate rain gauges provide key reference points for adjusting the network to capture more accurate information and minimize redundancy.

  14. Forecasting the heavy rainfall during Himalayan flooding—June 2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anumeha Dube

    2014-08-01

    Verification of the synoptic features in forecasts of the two models suggests that NCUM accurately captures the circulation features as compared to T574. Further verification of this event is carried out based on the contiguous rain area (CRA technique. CRA verification is used in computing the total mean square error (MSE which is based on displacement, volume and pattern errors. This verification technique also, confirms the better skill of NCUM over T574 in terms of forecast peak rainfall amounts, volume and average rain rate, lower MSE and root mean square error (RMSE as well as having higher hit rates and lower misses and false alarm rates for different rainfall thresholds from Day 1 to Day 5 forecasts.

  15. Evolution of extreme rainfall in France with a changing climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel; Veysseire, Jean-Michel; Gouget, Viviane; Neppel, Luc; Tramblay, Yves; Carreau, Julie

    2015-01-01

    This paper focuses a synthesis of the works led within the framework of the French project ANR/Extraflo on the evolution of the daily (and infra daily) extreme rainfall in France. An important dataset of more than 900 series was used. It was shown that a majority of series presented a not significant upward trend in particular in Mediterranean area, in relation with various recent exceptional extreme events. An interesting way to characterize this evolution consists in identifying climatic co-variables associated to heavy rainfall events (weather patterns, average temperatures, flow of humidity) and in taking into account them with a non stationary POT model. The application of this method with climatic projections under scenario A2 from IPCC could lead to a possible increase on extreme precipitation quantiles on the horizon 2070. (authors)

  16. A 1000-Year Carbon Isotope Rainfall Proxy Record from South African Baobab Trees (Adansonia digitata L.).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodborne, Stephan; Hall, Grant; Robertson, Iain; Patrut, Adrian; Rouault, Mathieu; Loader, Neil J; Hofmeyr, Michele

    2015-01-01

    A proxy rainfall record for northeastern South Africa based on carbon isotope analysis of four baobab (Adansonia digitata L.) trees shows centennial and decadal scale variability over the last 1,000 years. The record is in good agreement with a 200-year tree ring record from Zimbabwe, and it indicates the existence of a rainfall dipole between the summer and winter rainfall areas of South Africa. The wettest period was c. AD 1075 in the Medieval Warm Period, and the driest periods were c. AD 1635, c. AD 1695 and c. AD1805 during the Little Ice Age. Decadal-scale variability suggests that the rainfall forcing mechanisms are a complex interaction between proximal and distal factors. Periods of higher rainfall are significantly associated with lower sea-surface temperatures in the Agulhas Current core region and a negative Dipole Moment Index in the Indian Ocean. The correlation between rainfall and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation Index is non-static. Wetter conditions are associated with predominantly El Niño conditions over most of the record, but since about AD 1970 this relationship inverted and wet conditions are currently associated with la Nina conditions. The effect of both proximal and distal oceanic influences are insufficient to explain the rainfall regime shift between the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age, and the evidence suggests that this was the result of a northward shift of the subtropical westerlies rather than a southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone.

  17. Determining the precipitable water vapor thresholds under different rainfall strengths in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeh, Ta-Kang; Shih, Hsuan-Chang; Wang, Chuan-Sheng; Choy, Suelynn; Chen, Chieh-Hung; Hong, Jing-Shan

    2018-02-01

    Precipitable Water Vapor (PWV) plays an important role for weather forecasting. It is helpful in evaluating the changes of the weather system via observing the distribution of water vapor. The ability of calculating PWV from Global Positioning System (GPS) signals is useful to understand the special weather phenomenon. In this study, 95 ground-based GPS and rainfall stations in Taiwan were utilized from 2006 to 2012 to analyze the relationship between PWV and rainfall. The PWV data were classified into four classes (no, light, moderate and heavy rainfall), and the vertical gradients of the PWV were obtained and the variations of the PWV were analyzed. The results indicated that as the GPS elevation increased every 100 m, the PWV values decreased by 9.5 mm, 11.0 mm, 12.2 mm and 12.3 mm during the no, light, moderate and heavy rainfall conditions, respectively. After applying correction using the vertical gradients mentioned above, the average PWV thresholds were 41.8 mm, 52.9 mm, 62.5 mm and 64.4 mm under the no, light, moderate and heavy rainfall conditions, respectively. This study offers another type of empirical threshold to assist the rainfall prediction and can be used to distinguish the rainfall features between different areas in Taiwan.

  18. Effect of Spatio-Temporal Variability of Rainfall on Stream flow Prediction of Birr Watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demisse, N. S.; Bitew, M. M.; Gebremichael, M.

    2012-12-01

    The effect of rainfall variability on our ability to forecast flooding events was poorly studied in complex terrain region of Ethiopia. In order to establish relation between rainfall variability and stream flow, we deployed 24 rain gauges across Birr watershed. Birr watershed is a medium size mountainous watershed with an area of 3000 km2 and elevation ranging between 1435 m.a.s.l and 3400 m.a.s.l in the central Ethiopia highlands. One summer monsoon rainfall of 2012 recorded at high temporal scale of 15 minutes interval and stream flow recorded at an hourly interval in three sub-watershed locations representing different scales were used in this study. Based on the data obtained from the rain gauges and stream flow observations, we quantify extent of temporal and spatial variability of rainfall across the watershed using standard statistical measures including mean, standard deviation and coefficient of variation. We also establish rainfall-runoff modeling system using a physically distributed hydrological model: the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and examine the effect of rainfall variability on stream flow prediction. The accuracy of predicted stream flow is measured through direct comparison with observed flooding events. The results demonstrate the significance of relation between stream flow prediction and rainfall variability in the understanding of runoff generation mechanisms at watershed scale, determination of dominant water balance components, and effect of variability on accuracy of flood forecasting activities.

  19. FDG gamma camera PET equipped with one inch crystal and XCT. Assessment of myocardial viability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beheshti, M. [Dept. of Nuclear Medicine, Medical Univ., General Hospital of Vienna (Austria); Dept. of Nuclear Medicine and Endocrinology, PET CT Centre, St. Vincent' s Hospital, Linz (Austria); Khorsand, A.; Graf, S. [Dept. of Cardiology, Medical Univ., General Hospital of Vienna (Austria); Dobrozemsky, G. [Dept. of Nuclear Medicine, Medical Univ. of Innsbruck (Austria); Oezer, S.; Kletter, K.; Dudczak, R. [Dept. of Nuclear Medicine, Medical Univ., General Hospital of Vienna (Austria); Pirich, C. [Dept. of Nuclear Medicine und Endocrinology, Paracelsus Private Medical Univ., SALK, Salzburg (Austria)

    2006-07-01

    Metabolic imaging with 2-[fluorine-18]-fluoro-2-deoxy-D-glucose (FDG) is actually considered as the best method to detect and quantitatively assess myocordial tissue viability. The aim of this study was to investigate the accuracy of FDG gamma camera positron emission tomography (GCPET) imaging equipped with one inch NaI crystals in comparison to FDG dedicated PET (dPET) imaging as a ''gold standard'' in phantom and clinical studies. Patients, methods: nineteen patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) underwent both imaging modalities. Phantom and clinical GCPET imaging were performed with a dual-headed, coincidence based gamma camera equipped with 1 inch thick NaI crystals and an X-ray tube (XCT) for attenuation correction (AC), as well as with a dedicated PET scanner with AC. {sup 99m}Tc tetrofosmin single-photon emission tomography (SPET) studies were performed for assessment of myocardial perfusion, with AC. Results: phantom studies showed a significant relation in segmental activity between FDG imaging with AC using GCPET and dPET (r = 0.91, p < 0.001). In clinical studies with AC correlation coefficients of mean segmental FDG uptake and regional defect size were r = 0.87 (p < 0.0001) and r = 0.83 (p < 0.0001), respectively. In regional analysis close agreement was even found in the most attenuated regions of the heart if AC was used in GCPET imaging. The overall agreement for detection of viable myocardium was 81% between FDG-dPET (AC) and FDG-GCPET (AC) and 74% between FDG-dPET (AC) and FDG-GCPET (NC). Conclusions: suggests that the assessment of myocardial metabolism by means of FDG is feasible with a coincidence based gamma camera equipped with 1 inch thick NaI crystal if AC is performed. The results reveal a close concordance and agreement between FDG-dPET (AC) and FDG-GCPET (AC) as compared to FDG-GCPET (NC). (orig.)

  20. RAINLINK: Retrieval algorithm for rainfall monitoring employing microwave links from a cellular communication network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uijlenhoet, R.; Overeem, A.; Leijnse, H.; Rios Gaona, M. F.

    2017-12-01

    The basic principle of rainfall estimation using microwave links is as follows. Rainfall attenuates the electromagnetic signals transmitted from one telephone tower to another. By measuring the received power at one end of a microwave link as a function of time, the path-integrated attenuation due to rainfall can be calculated, which can be converted to average rainfall intensities over the length of a link. Microwave links from cellular communication networks have been proposed as a promising new rainfall measurement technique for one decade. They are particularly interesting for those countries where few surface rainfall observations are available. Yet to date no operational (real-time) link-based rainfall products are available. To advance the process towards operational application and upscaling of this technique, there is a need for freely available, user-friendly computer code for microwave link data processing and rainfall mapping. Such software is now available as R package "RAINLINK" on GitHub (https://github.com/overeem11/RAINLINK). It contains a working example to compute link-based 15-min rainfall maps for the entire surface area of The Netherlands for 40 hours from real microwave link data. This is a working example using actual data from an extensive network of commercial microwave links, for the first time, which will allow users to test their own algorithms and compare their results with ours. The package consists of modular functions, which facilitates running only part of the algorithm. The main processings steps are: 1) Preprocessing of link data (initial quality and consistency checks); 2) Wet-dry classification using link data; 3) Reference signal determination; 4) Removal of outliers ; 5) Correction of received signal powers; 6) Computation of mean path-averaged rainfall intensities; 7) Interpolation of rainfall intensities ; 8) Rainfall map visualisation. Some applications of RAINLINK will be shown based on microwave link data from a

  1. Characterization of space-time rainfall patterns over Switzerland based on high-resolution radar images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benoit, Lionel; Mariethoz, Gregoire; Vrac, Mathieu

    2017-04-01

    Rainfall is generated by diverse and complex processes that produce rain fields with a large variability of patterns. High-resolution measurements of rainfall, provided for instance by networks of terrestrial weather radars, allow observing the spatial variability of rainfall patterns and its temporal evolution. The characterization of these space-time rainfall patterns is important for both the understanding of rain generation processes and the study of environmental impacts of rainfall on hydrology, erosion or plants growth, among others. Here we propose to study rainfall patterns using image processing methods on high-resolution radar images (1km x 1km x 1min) over Switzerland. The time series of radar images is first segmented in rain events. Then, the spatial structure of each rain event is characterized by computing statistics over several geometrical indices extracted from radar images, by adapting to the context of mid-latitude rainfalls the indices proposed by Aghakouchak, Nasrollahi et al. (2011) and Zick and Matyas (2016) for tropical rainfall characterization. Finally, the dynamics of rainfall patterns is characterized by estimating rain advection through image correlation, and by quantifying the temporal morphing of spatial patterns in a Lagrangian reference frame, where radar images are re-projected to cancel out rain advection. Two years of data (2015 - 2016) are used to investigate the variability of rainfall patterns over Switzerland. Typical values of the indicators measuring rainfall patterns and their dynamics are extracted for different areas, namely the Jura Mountain, the Swiss Plateau and the Alps. These measures of rainfall variability could be subsequently used to parameterize local weather generators or to investigate the relationships between rainfall patterns and atmospheric synoptic conditions. References: Aghakouchak, A., N. Nasrollahi, J. Li, B. Imam and S. Sorooshian (2011). "Geometrical Characterization of Precipitation Patterns

  2. Assessing future changes in the occurrence of rainfall-induced landslides at a regional scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gariano, S L; Rianna, G; Petrucci, O; Guzzetti, F

    2017-10-15

    According to the fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, an increase in the frequency and the intensity of extreme rainfall is expected in the Mediterranean area. Among different impacts, this increase might result in a variation in the frequency and the spatial distribution of rainfall-induced landslides, and in an increase in the size of the population exposed to landslide risk. We propose a method for the regional-scale evaluation of future variations in the occurrence of rainfall-induced landslides, in response to changes in rainfall regimes. We exploit information on the occurrence of 603 rainfall-induced landslides in Calabria, southern Italy, in the period 1981-2010, and daily rainfall data recorded in the same period in the region. Furthermore, we use high-resolution climate projections based on RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. In particular, we consider the mean variations between a 30-year future period (2036-2065) and the reference period 1981-2010 in three variables assumed as proxy for landslide activity: annual rainfall, seasonal cumulated rainfall, and annual maxima of daily rainfall. Based on reliable correlations between landslide occurrence and weather variables estimated in the reference period, we assess future variations in rainfall-induced landslide occurrence for all the municipalities of Calabria. A +45.7% and +21.2% average regional variation in rainfall-induced landslide occurrence is expected in the region for the period 2036-2065, under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenario, respectively. We also investigate the future variations in the impact of rainfall-induced landslides on the population of Calabria. We find a +80.2% and +54.5% increase in the impact on the population for the period 2036-2065, under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenario, respectively. The proposed method is quantitative and reproducible, thus it can be applied in similar regions, where adequate landslide and rainfall information is available. Copyright © 2017

  3. An assessment of the performance of global rainfall estimates without ground-based observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massari, Christian; Crow, Wade; Brocca, Luca

    2017-09-01

    Satellite-based rainfall estimates over land have great potential for a wide range of applications, but their validation is challenging due to the scarcity of ground-based observations of rainfall in many areas of the planet. Recent studies have suggested the use of triple collocation (TC) to characterize uncertainties associated with rainfall estimates by using three collocated rainfall products. However, TC requires the simultaneous availability of three products with mutually uncorrelated errors, a requirement which is difficult to satisfy with current global precipitation data sets. In this study, a recently developed method for rainfall estimation from soil moisture observations, SM2RAIN, is demonstrated to facilitate the accurate application of TC within triplets containing two state-of-the-art satellite rainfall estimates and a reanalysis product. The validity of different TC assumptions are indirectly tested via a high-quality ground rainfall product over the contiguous United States (CONUS), showing that SM2RAIN can provide a truly independent source of rainfall accumulation information which uniquely satisfies the assumptions underlying TC. On this basis, TC is applied with SM2RAIN on a global scale in an optimal configuration to calculate, for the first time, reliable global correlations (vs. an unknown truth) of the aforementioned products without using a ground benchmark data set. The analysis is carried out during the period 2007-2012 using daily rainfall accumulation products obtained at 1° × 1° spatial resolution. Results convey the relatively high performance of the satellite rainfall estimates in eastern North and South America, southern Africa, southern and eastern Asia, eastern Australia, and southern Europe, as well as complementary performances between the reanalysis product and SM2RAIN, with the first performing reasonably well in the Northern Hemisphere and the second providing very good performance in the Southern Hemisphere. The

  4. Towards large scale stochastic rainfall models for flood risk assessment in trans-national basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serinaldi, F.; Kilsby, C. G.

    2012-04-01

    While extensive research has been devoted to rainfall-runoff modelling for risk assessment in small and medium size watersheds, less attention has been paid, so far, to large scale trans-national basins, where flood events have severe societal and economic impacts with magnitudes quantified in billions of Euros. As an example, in the April 2006 flood events along the Danube basin at least 10 people lost their lives and up to 30 000 people were displaced, with overall damages estimated at more than half a billion Euros. In this context, refined analytical methods are fundamental to improve the risk assessment and, then, the design of structural and non structural measures of protection, such as hydraulic works and insurance/reinsurance policies. Since flood events are mainly driven by exceptional rainfall events, suitable characterization and modelling of space-time properties of rainfall fields is a key issue to perform a reliable flood risk analysis based on alternative precipitation scenarios to be fed in a new generation of large scale rainfall-runoff models. Ultimately, this approach should be extended to a global flood risk model. However, as the need of rainfall models able to account for and simulate spatio-temporal properties of rainfall fields over large areas is rather new, the development of new rainfall simulation frameworks is a challenging task involving that faces with the problem of overcoming the drawbacks of the existing modelling schemes (devised for smaller spatial scales), but keeping the desirable properties. In this study, we critically summarize the most widely used approaches for rainfall simulation. Focusing on stochastic approaches, we stress the importance of introducing suitable climate forcings in these simulation schemes in order to account for the physical coherence of rainfall fields over wide areas. Based on preliminary considerations, we suggest a modelling framework relying on the Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale

  5. An assessment of the performance of global rainfall estimates without ground-based observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Massari

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Satellite-based rainfall estimates over land have great potential for a wide range of applications, but their validation is challenging due to the scarcity of ground-based observations of rainfall in many areas of the planet. Recent studies have suggested the use of triple collocation (TC to characterize uncertainties associated with rainfall estimates by using three collocated rainfall products. However, TC requires the simultaneous availability of three products with mutually uncorrelated errors, a requirement which is difficult to satisfy with current global precipitation data sets. In this study, a recently developed method for rainfall estimation from soil moisture observations, SM2RAIN, is demonstrated to facilitate the accurate application of TC within triplets containing two state-of-the-art satellite rainfall estimates and a reanalysis product. The validity of different TC assumptions are indirectly tested via a high-quality ground rainfall product over the contiguous United States (CONUS, showing that SM2RAIN can provide a truly independent source of rainfall accumulation information which uniquely satisfies the assumptions underlying TC. On this basis, TC is applied with SM2RAIN on a global scale in an optimal configuration to calculate, for the first time, reliable global correlations (vs. an unknown truth of the aforementioned products without using a ground benchmark data set. The analysis is carried out during the period 2007–2012 using daily rainfall accumulation products obtained at 1° × 1° spatial resolution. Results convey the relatively high performance of the satellite rainfall estimates in eastern North and South America, southern Africa, southern and eastern Asia, eastern Australia, and southern Europe, as well as complementary performances between the reanalysis product and SM2RAIN, with the first performing reasonably well in the Northern Hemisphere and the second providing very good performance in the Southern

  6. Analysis of Rainfall Characteristicsfor Flood Estimation in Way Awi Watershed

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kusumastuti D.I.

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates rainfall intensity distribution in Way Awi watershed located in Bandar Lampung, and how their impacts on flood peak and flood hydrographs. Hourly rainfall data is examined to obtain design rainfall intensity and rainfall intensity distribution at rainfall duration from three to eight hours. Rainfall-runoff model, i.e. Rational method is used to calculate flood peak while unit hydrograph method is used to develop flood hydrograph. This study shows that in Way Awi watershed 88.3% to 96.4% of 24-hour rain occurs in three to eight hour durations. In addition, rainfall with three hour duration generates the highest flood peak, followed by four hour duration rainfall. When rainfall duration and design rainfall intensity are the same but rainfall intensity distribution is different, generated flood hydrograph may have different flood peak magnitude and timing. Result of this study is useful for flood analysis and mitigation in Way Awi watershed.

  7. Testing of one-inch UF{sub 6} cylinder valves under simulated fire conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Elliott, P.G. [Martin Marietta Energy Systems, Inc., Paducah, KY (United States)

    1991-12-31

    Accurate computational models which predict the behavior of UF{sub 6} cylinders exposed to fires are required to validate existing firefighting and emergency response procedures. Since the cylinder valve is a factor in the containment provided by the UF{sub 6} cylinder, its behavior under fire conditions has been a necessary assumption in the development of such models. Consequently, test data is needed to substantiate these assumptions. Several studies cited in this document provide data related to the behavior of a 1-inch UF{sub 6} cylinder valve in fire situations. To acquire additional data, a series of tests were conducted at the Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant (PGDP) under a unique set of test conditions. This document describes this testing and the resulting data.

  8. LOFT transient thermal analysis for 10 inch primary coolant blowdown piping weld

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Howell, S.K.

    1978-01-01

    A flaw in a weld in the 10 inch primary coolant blowdown piping was discovered by LOFT personnel. As a result of this, a thermal analysis and fracture mechanics analysis was requested by LOFT personnel. The weld and pipe section were analyzed for a complete thermal cycle, heatup and Loss of Coolant Experiment (LOCE), using COUPLE/MOD2, a two-dimensional finite element heat conduction code. The finite element representation used in this analysis was generated by the Applied Mechanics Branch. The record of nodal temperatures for the entire transient was written on tape VSN=T9N054, and has been forwarded to the Applied Mechanics Branch for use in their mechanical analysis. Specific details and assumptions used in this analysis are found in appropriate sections of this report

  9. Development and characterization of a CCD camera system for use on six-inch manipulator systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Logory, L.M.; Bell, P.M.; Conder, A.D.; Lee, F.D.

    1996-01-01

    The Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory has designed, constructed, and fielded a compact CCD camera system for use on the Six Inch Manipulator (SIM) at the Nova laser facility. The camera system has been designed to directly replace the 35 mm film packages on all active SIM-based diagnostics. The unit's electronic package is constructed for small size and high thermal conductivity using proprietary printed circuit board technology, thus reducing the size of the overall camera and improving its performance when operated within the vacuum environment of the Nova laser target chamber. The camera has been calibrated and found to yield a linear response, with superior dynamic range and signal-to-noise levels as compared to T-Max 3200 optic film, while providing real-time access to the data. Limiting factors related to fielding such devices on Nova will be discussed, in addition to planned improvements of the current design

  10. Weather radar rainfall data in urban hydrology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren; Einfalt, Thomas; Willems, Patrick

    2017-01-01

    Application of weather radar data in urban hydrological applications has evolved significantly during the past decade as an alternative to traditional rainfall observations with rain gauges. Advances in radar hardware, data processing, numerical models, and emerging fields within urban hydrology...

  11. Quantifying Rainfall Interception Loss of a Subtropical Broadleaved Forest in Central Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi-Ying Chen

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The factors controlling seasonal rainfall interception loss are investigated by using a double-mass curve analysis, based on direct measurements of high-temporal resolution gross rainfall, throughfall and stemflow from 43 rainfall events that occurred in central Taiwan from April 2008 to April 2009. The canopy water storage capacity for the wet season was estimated to be 1.86 mm, about twice that for the dry season (0.91 mm, likely due to the large reduction in the leaf area index (LAI from 4.63 to 2.23 (m2·m−2. Changes in seasonal canopy structure and micro-meteorological conditions resulted in temporal variations in the amount of interception components, and rainfall partitioning into stemflow and throughfall. Wet canopy evaporation after rainfall contributed 41.8% of the wet season interception loss, but only 17.1% of the dry season interception loss. Wet canopy evaporation during rainfall accounted for 82.9% of the dry season interception loss, but only 58.2% of the wet season interception loss. Throughfall accounted for over 79.7% of the dry season precipitation and 76.1% of the wet season precipitation, possibly due to the change in gap fraction from 64.2% in the dry season to 50.0% in the wet season. The reduced canopy cover in the dry season also produced less stemflow than that of the wet season. The rainfall stemflow ratio ( P s f / P g was reduced from 12.6% to 8.9%. Despite relatively large changes in canopy structure, seasonal variation of the ratio of rainfall partitioned to interception was quite small. Rainfall interception loss accounted for nearly 12% of gross precipitation for both dry and wet seasons.

  12. Flood and landslide warning based on rainfall thresholds and soil moisture indexes: the HEWS (Hydrohazards Early Warning System) for Sicily

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brigandì, Giuseppina; Tito Aronica, Giuseppe; Bonaccorso, Brunella; Gueli, Roberto; Basile, Giuseppe

    2017-09-01

    The main focus of the paper is to present a flood and landslide early warning system, named HEWS (Hydrohazards Early Warning System), specifically developed for the Civil Protection Department of Sicily, based on the combined use of rainfall thresholds, soil moisture modelling and quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF). The warning system is referred to 9 different Alert Zones in which Sicily has been divided into and based on a threshold system of three different increasing critical levels: ordinary, moderate and high. In this system, for early flood warning, a Soil Moisture Accounting (SMA) model provides daily soil moisture conditions, which allow to select a specific set of three rainfall thresholds, one for each critical level considered, to be used for issue the alert bulletin. Wetness indexes, representative of the soil moisture conditions of a catchment, are calculated using a simple, spatially-lumped rainfall-streamflow model, based on the SCS-CN method, and on the unit hydrograph approach, that require daily observed and/or predicted rainfall, and temperature data as input. For the calibration of this model daily continuous time series of rainfall, streamflow and air temperature data are used. An event based lumped rainfall-runoff model has been, instead, used for the derivation of the rainfall thresholds for each catchment in Sicily characterised by an area larger than 50 km2. In particular, a Kinematic Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph based lumped rainfall-runoff model with the SCS-CN routine for net rainfall was developed for this purpose. For rainfall-induced shallow landslide warning, empirical rainfall thresholds provided by Gariano et al. (2015) have been included in the system. They were derived on an empirical basis starting from a catalogue of 265 shallow landslides in Sicily in the period 2002-2012. Finally, Delft-FEWS operational forecasting platform has been applied to link input data, SMA model and rainfall threshold models to produce

  13. Properties of Extreme Point Rainfall I

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harremoës, Poul; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

    1995-01-01

    Extreme rainfall has been recorded by the larger municipalities in Denmark since 1933. National intensity-duration-frequency curves were produced on this basis for engineering application in the whole of Denmark. In 1979, on the initiative of The Danish Water Pollution Control Committee under...... of the engineering application of rainfall data for design. The article describes the engineering purpose and design of sewer systems, the initial data treatment, the results from the first statistical analysis and the consequence for engineering application....

  14. Seasonal rainfall predictability over the Lake Kariba catchment area

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Muchuru, S

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available ) (Beilfuss, 2012). The temporal and spatial distribution of convection is associated with evaporative losses that strain food and water resources (Jury et al., 1999; Lyon B, 2009). The South Atlantic and Indian Oceans, being the major sources of moisture... and CRANDALL K (1997) Food security in southern Africa. Assessing the use and value of ENSO information. NOAA Project Report. NCAR, Boulder. DOI: 10.1007/978-94-017- 3010-5. 142 pp. GORDON C, COOPER, SENIOR CA, BANKS H, GREGORY JM, JOHNS TC, MITCHELL JFB...

  15. Global Warming Induced Changes in Rainfall Characteristics in IPCC AR5 Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, William K. M.; Wu, Jenny, H.-T.; Kim, Kyu-Myong

    2012-01-01

    Changes in rainfall characteristic induced by global warming are examined from outputs of IPCC AR5 models. Different scenarios of climate warming including a high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5), a medium mitigation scenario (RCP 4.5), and 1% per year CO2 increase are compared to 20th century simulations (historical). Results show that even though the spatial distribution of monthly rainfall anomalies vary greatly among models, the ensemble mean from a sizable sample (about 10) of AR5 models show a robust signal attributable to GHG warming featuring a shift in the global rainfall probability distribution function (PDF) with significant increase (>100%) in very heavy rain, reduction (10-20% ) in moderate rain and increase in light to very light rains. Changes in extreme rainfall as a function of seasons and latitudes are also examined, and are similar to the non-seasonal stratified data, but with more specific spatial dependence. These results are consistent from TRMM and GPCP rainfall observations suggesting that extreme rainfall events are occurring more frequently with wet areas getting wetter and dry-area-getting drier in a GHG induced warmer climate.

  16. Observed and projected changes in temperature and rainfall in Cambodia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heng Chan Thoeun

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Temperature and rainfall patterns in Cambodia are governed by monsoons and characterized by two major wet and dry seasons. The average annual rainfall is 1400 mm in the central low land regions and may reach 4000 mm in certain coastal zones or in highland areas. The annual average temperature is 28 °C, with an average maximum temperature of 38 °C in April and an average minimum temperature of 17 °C in January. This paper presents the climate change scenarios using MAGICC–SCENGEN program, which links emissions scenarios with global and regional climate change and has adopted the regional climate model (PRECIS in combination with a number of GCM models with resolution of 50×50 km, using observation data and two historical and future climate data sets generated by RCM model downscaling under the two emission scenarios SRES A2 and SRES B2. Projections of maximum and minimum temperatures and rainfall patterns from 2008 to 2099 are described. For future studies, daily data are required perform vulnerability and adaptation assessments.

  17. Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall: Implications of Contrasting Trends in the Spatial Variability of Means and Extremes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghosh, Subimal; Vittal, H; Sharma, Tarul; Karmakar, Subhankar; Kasiviswanathan, K S; Dhanesh, Y; Sudheer, K P; Gunthe, S S

    2016-01-01

    India's agricultural output, economy, and societal well-being are strappingly dependent on the stability of summer monsoon rainfall, its variability and extremes. Spatial aggregate of intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall events over Central India are significantly increasing, while at local scale they are spatially non-uniform with increasing spatial variability. The reasons behind such increase in spatial variability of extremes are poorly understood and the trends in mean monsoon rainfall have been greatly overlooked. Here, by using multi-decadal gridded daily rainfall data over entire India, we show that the trend in spatial variability of mean monsoon rainfall is decreasing as exactly opposite to that of extremes. The spatial variability of extremes is attributed to the spatial variability of the convective rainfall component. Contrarily, the decrease in spatial variability of the mean rainfall over India poses a pertinent research question on the applicability of large scale inter-basin water transfer by river inter-linking to address the spatial variability of available water in India. We found a significant decrease in the monsoon rainfall over major water surplus river basins in India. Hydrological simulations using a Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model also revealed that the water yield in surplus river basins is decreasing but it is increasing in deficit basins. These findings contradict the traditional notion of dry areas becoming drier and wet areas becoming wetter in response to climate change in India. This result also calls for a re-evaluation of planning for river inter-linking to supply water from surplus to deficit river basins.

  18. The relation of vegetation over the Tibetan Plateau to rainfall in China during the boreal summer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zuo, Zhiyan; Zhang, Renhe [Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Beijing (China); Zhao, Ping [National Meteorological Information Centre, Beijing (China)

    2011-03-15

    The relationship between vegetation on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and summer (June-August) rainfall in China is investigated using the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from the Earth Resources Observation System and observed rainfall data from surface 616 stations in China for the period 1982-2001. The leading mode of empirical orthogonal functions analysis for summer rainfall variability in China shows a negative anomaly in the area from the Yangtze River valley to the Yellow River valley (YYR) and most of western China, and positive anomalies in southern China and North China. This mode is significantly correlated with summer NDVI around the southern TP. This finding indicates that vegetation around the southern TP has a positive correlation with summer rainfall in southern China and North China, but a negative correlation with summer rainfall in YYR and western China. We investigate the physical process by which vegetation change affects summer rainfall in China. Increased vegetation around the southern TP is associated with a descending motion anomaly on the TP and the neighboring area to the east, resulting in reduced surface heating and a lower Bowen ratio, accompanied by weaker divergence in the upper troposphere and convergence in the lower troposphere on the TP. In turn, these changes result in the weakening of and a westward shift in the southern Asian High in the upper troposphere and thereby the weakening of and an eastward withdrawal in the western Pacific subtropical high. These features result in weak circulation in the East Asian summer monsoon. Consequently, enhanced summer rainfall occurs in southern China and North China, but reduced rainfall in YYR. (orig.)

  19. ANALYSIS OF RAINFALL PATTERN AND FLOOD INCIDENCES IN WARRI METROPOLIS, NIGERIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Olanrewaju

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change has led to changes in the known patterns of rainfall and other climatic variables as well as increase in the frequency and magnitude of natural disasters including floods in different parts of the world; and flood is indeed a global environmental issue that had destroyed lives and property amidst other untold hardships. The study examined rainfall characteristics in Warri metropolis for the past 30 years (1986-2015 vis-à-vis the flood situation in the metropolis; as well as the factors responsible and adaptation strategies to flood in the area. Dividing the study area into four zones after Sada (1977, the researchers collected rainfall data from the archives of Nigerian Meteorological Agency; 268 copies of questionnaire and oral interview were used. The result of the correlation analysis performed showed a negative relationship of -0.156 between rainfall and time (years, this implies that rainfall is decreasing over time. The trend line regression equation Y=243.75-0.4572X, confirms that rainfall in Warri Metropolis is decreasing at the rate of -0.45 per year. However, the p-value 0.412 is greater than 0.05, hence, the trend is not statistically significant at 95% level of confidence. It was discovered that rainfall, absence of drainage and poor urban planning practices (as factor 1 contributed 51.09% while overflowing of rivers, blocked/ poor drainage and untarred roads (as factor 2 contributed 44.10% variance to flood occurrence in the metropolis. Recommendations given included continual monitoring and study of rainfall characteristics and other climatic data and dissemination of such information for planning purposes; construction of integrated drainage system and river rechannelisation, legislation against dumping of refuse on roads and drainages; proper urban planning including implementation of the metropolitan urban drainage master plan. 

  20. Simulating transport of nitrogen and phosphorus in a Cambisol after natural and simulated intense rainfall.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaufmann, Vander; Pinheiro, Adilson; Castro, Nilza Maria dos Reis

    2014-05-01

    Intense rainfall adversely affects agricultural areas, causing transport of pollutants. Physically-based hydrological models to simulate flows of water and chemical substances can be used to help decision-makers adopt measures which reduce such problems. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the performance of SWAP and ANIMO models for simulating transport of water, nitrate and phosphorus nutrients, during intense rainfall events generated by a simulator, and during natural rainfall, on a volumetric drainage lysimeter. The models were calibrated and verified using daily time series and simulated rainfall measured at 10-minute intervals. For daily time-intervals, the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient was 0.865 for the calibration period and 0.805 for verification. Under simulated rainfall, these coefficients were greater than 0.56. The pattern of both nitrate and phosphate concentrations in daily drainage flow under simulated rainfall was acceptably reproduced by the ANIMO model. In the simulated rainfall, loads of nitrate transported in surface runoff varied between 0.08 and 8.46 kg ha(-1), and in drainage form the lysimeter, between 2.44 and 112.57 kg ha(-1). In the case of phosphate, the loads transported in surface runoff varied between 0.002 and 0.504 kg ha(-1), and in drainage, between 0.005 and 1.107 kg ha(-1). The use of the two models SWAP and ANIMO shows the magnitudes of nitrogen and phosphorus fluxes transported by natural and simulated intense rainfall in an agricultural area with different soil management procedures, as required by decision makers. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall: Implications of Contrasting Trends in the Spatial Variability of Means and Extremes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Subimal Ghosh

    Full Text Available India's agricultural output, economy, and societal well-being are strappingly dependent on the stability of summer monsoon rainfall, its variability and extremes. Spatial aggregate of intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall events over Central India are significantly increasing, while at local scale they are spatially non-uniform with increasing spatial variability. The reasons behind such increase in spatial variability of extremes are poorly understood and the trends in mean monsoon rainfall have been greatly overlooked. Here, by using multi-decadal gridded daily rainfall data over entire India, we show that the trend in spatial variability of mean monsoon rainfall is decreasing as exactly opposite to that of extremes. The spatial variability of extremes is attributed to the spatial variability of the convective rainfall component. Contrarily, the decrease in spatial variability of the mean rainfall over India poses a pertinent research question on the applicability of large scale inter-basin water transfer by river inter-linking to address the spatial variability of available water in India. We found a significant decrease in the monsoon rainfall over major water surplus river basins in India. Hydrological simulations using a Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC model also revealed that the water yield in surplus river basins is decreasing but it is increasing in deficit basins. These findings contradict the traditional notion of dry areas becoming drier and wet areas becoming wetter in response to climate change in India. This result also calls for a re-evaluation of planning for river inter-linking to supply water from surplus to deficit river basins.

  2. Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall: Implications of Contrasting Trends in the Spatial Variability of Means and Extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghosh, Subimal; Vittal, H.; Sharma, Tarul; Karmakar, Subhankar; Kasiviswanathan, K. S.; Dhanesh, Y.; Sudheer, K. P.; Gunthe, S. S.

    2016-01-01

    India’s agricultural output, economy, and societal well-being are strappingly dependent on the stability of summer monsoon rainfall, its variability and extremes. Spatial aggregate of intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall events over Central India are significantly increasing, while at local scale they are spatially non-uniform with increasing spatial variability. The reasons behind such increase in spatial variability of extremes are poorly understood and the trends in mean monsoon rainfall have been greatly overlooked. Here, by using multi-decadal gridded daily rainfall data over entire India, we show that the trend in spatial variability of mean monsoon rainfall is decreasing as exactly opposite to that of extremes. The spatial variability of extremes is attributed to the spatial variability of the convective rainfall component. Contrarily, the decrease in spatial variability of the mean rainfall over India poses a pertinent research question on the applicability of large scale inter-basin water transfer by river inter-linking to address the spatial variability of available water in India. We found a significant decrease in the monsoon rainfall over major water surplus river basins in India. Hydrological simulations using a Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model also revealed that the water yield in surplus river basins is decreasing but it is increasing in deficit basins. These findings contradict the traditional notion of dry areas becoming drier and wet areas becoming wetter in response to climate change in India. This result also calls for a re-evaluation of planning for river inter-linking to supply water from surplus to deficit river basins. PMID:27463092

  3. Disaggregating radar-derived rainfall measurements in East Azarbaijan, Iran, using a spatial random-cascade model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fouladi Osgouei, Hojjatollah; Zarghami, Mahdi; Ashouri, Hamed

    2017-07-01

    The availability of spatial, high-resolution rainfall data is one of the most essential needs in the study of water resources. These data are extremely valuable in providing flood awareness for dense urban and industrial areas. The first part of this paper applies an optimization-based method to the calibration of radar data based on ground rainfall gauges. Then, the climatological Z-R relationship for the Sahand radar, located in the East Azarbaijan province of Iran, with the help of three adjacent rainfall stations, is obtained. The new climatological Z-R relationship with a power-law form shows acceptable statistical performance, making it suitable for radar-rainfall estimation by the Sahand radar outputs. The second part of the study develops a new heterogeneous random-cascade model for spatially disaggregating the rainfall data resulting from the power-law model. This model is applied to the radar-rainfall image data to disaggregate rainfall data with coverage area of 512 × 512 km2 to a resolution of 32 × 32 km2. Results show that the proposed model has a good ability to disaggregate rainfall data, which may lead to improvement in precipitation forecasting, and ultimately better water-resources management in this arid region, including Urmia Lake.

  4. Heavy daily-rainfall characteristics over the Gauteng Province

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2009-02-09

    Feb 9, 2009 ... A significant rainfall event is defined when the average rainfall exceeds 10 mm, a heavy rainfall event when the average rainfall ..... in October (72 mm) even though the number of days with some rain was very similar (15 to 17 d). The standard deviation of the average monthly rain- fall in March was 54 mm ...

  5. Rainfall characteristics and thresholds for periglacial debris flows in ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The Parlung Zangbo Basin in the southeastern Tibet Plateau is affected by the summer monsoon from the Indian Ocean, which produces large rainfall gradients in the basin. Rainfall data during 2012–2015 from five new meteorological stations are used to analyse the rainfall characteristics. The daily rainfall, rainfallduration ...

  6. Temporal and spatial variability of rainfall distribution and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Rainfall and evapotranspiration are the two major climatic factors affecting agricultural production. This study examined the extent and nature of rainfall variability from measured data while estimation of evapotranspiration was made from recorded weather data. Analysis of rainfall variability is made by the rainfall anomaly ...

  7. Satellite-based estimation of rainfall erosivity for Africa

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vrieling, A.; Sterk, G.; Jong, S.M. de

    2010-01-01

    Rainfall erosivity is a measure for the erosive force of rainfall. Rainfall kinetic energy determines the erosivity and is in turn greatly dependent on rainfall intensity. Attempts for its large-scale mapping are rare. Most are based on interpolation of erosivity values derived from rain gauge

  8. Hydro-mechanical mechanism and thresholds of rainfall-induced unsaturated landslides

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Zongji; Lei, Xiaoqin; Huang, Dong; Qiao, Jianping

    2017-04-01

    The devastating Ms 8 Wenchuan earthquake in 2008 created the greatest number of co-seismic mountain hazards ever recorded in China. However, the dynamics of rainfall induced mass remobilization and transport deposits after giant earthquake are not fully understood. Moreover, rainfall intensity and duration (I-D) methods are the predominant early warning indicators of rainfall-induced landslides in post-earthquake region, which are a convenient and straight-forward way to predict the hazards. However, the rainfall-based criteria and thresholds are generally empirical and based on statistical analysis,consequently, they ignore the failure mechanisms of the landslides. This study examines the mechanism and hydro-mechanical behavior and thresholds of these unsaturated deposits under the influence of rainfall. To accomplish this, in situ experiments were performed in an instrumented landslide deposit, The field experimental tests were conducted on a natural co-seismic fractured slope to 1) simulate rainfall-induced shallow failures in the depression channels of a debris flow catchment in an earthquake-affected region, 2)explore the mechanisms and transient processes associated with hydro-mechanical parameter variations in response to the infiltration of rainfall, and 3) identify the hydrologic parameter thresholds and critical criteria of gravitational erosion in areas prone to mass remobilization as a source of debris flows. These experiments provided instrumental evidence and directly proved that post-earthquake rainfall-induced mass remobilization occurred under unsaturated conditions in response to transient rainfall infiltration, and revealed the presence of transient processes and the dominance of preferential flow paths during rainfall infiltration. A hydro-mechanical method was adopted for the transient hydrologic process modelling and unsaturated slope stability analysis. and the slope failures during the experimental test were reproduced by the model

  9. The Effects of More Extreme Rainfall Patterns on Infiltration and Nutrient Losses in Agricultural Soils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hess, L.; Basso, B.; Hinckley, E. L. S.; Robertson, G. P.; Matson, P. A.

    2015-12-01

    In the coming century, the proportion of total rainfall that falls in heavy storm events is expected to increase in many areas, especially in the US Midwest, a major agricultural region. These changes in rainfall patterns may have consequences for hydrologic flow and nutrient losses, especially in agricultural soils, with potentially negative consequences for receiving ground- and surface waters. We used a tracer experiment to examine how more extreme rainfall patterns may affect the movement of water and solutes through an agricultural soil profile in the upper Midwest, and to what extent tillage may moderate these effects. Two rainfall patterns were created with 5m x 5m rainout shelters at the Kellogg Biological Station LTER site in replicated plots with either conventional tillage or no-till management. Control rainfall treatments received water 3x per week, and extreme rainfall treatments received the same total amount of water but once every two weeks, to simulate less frequent but larger storms. In April 2015, potassium bromide (KBr) was added as a conservative tracer of water flow to all plots, and Br- concentrations in soil water at 1.2m depth were measured weekly from April through July. Soil water Br- concentrations increased and peaked more quickly under the extreme rainfall treatment, suggesting increased infiltration and solute transfer to depth compared to soils exposed to control rainfall patterns. Soil water Br- also increased and peaked more quickly in no-till than in conventional tillage treatments, indicating differences in flow paths between management systems. Soil moisture measured every 15 minutes at 10, 40, and 100cm depths corroborates tracer experiment results: rainfall events simulated in extreme rainfall treatments led to large increases in deep soil moisture, while the smaller rainfall events simulated under control conditions did not. Deep soil moisture in no-till treatments also increased sooner after water application as compared to

  10. Characterization of rainfall events and correlation with reported disasters: A case in Cali, Colombia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canon, C. C.; Tischbein, B.; Bogardi, J.

    2017-12-01

    Flood maps generally display the area that a river might overflow after a rainfall event takes place, under different scenarios of climate, land use/land cover, and/or failure of dams and dikes. However, rainfall is not limited to feed runoff and enlarge the river: it also causes minor disasters outside the map's highlighted area. The city of Cali in Colombia illustrates very well this situation: its flat topography and its major critical infrastructure near the river make it flood-risk prone; a heavy rainfall event would potentially deplete drinking water, electrical power and drainage capacity, and trigger outbreaks of water-borne diseases in the whole city, not only in the flooded area. Unfortunately, the government's disaster prevention strategies focus on the floodplain and usually overlook the aftermath of these minor disasters for being milder and scattered. Predicted losses in flood maps are potentially big, while those from minor disasters over the city are small but real, and citizens, utility companies and urban maintenance funds must constantly take them over. Mitigation and prevention of such minor disasters can save money for the development of the city in other aspects. This paper characterizes hundreds of rainfall events selected from 10-min step time series from 2006 to 2017, and finds their correlation with reported rainfall-related disasters throughout Cali, identified by date and neighborhood. Results show which rainfall parameters are most likely to indicate the occurrence of such disasters and their approximate location in the urban area of Cali. These results, when coupled with real-time observations of rainfall data and simulations of drainage network response, may help citizens and emergency bodies prioritize zones to assist during heavy storms. In the long term, stakeholders may also implement low impact development solutions in these zones to reduce flood risks.

  11. A Comparative Study of Rainfall Pattern in the Tarkwa Mining District ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Tarkwa is in the Western Region of Ghana where mining, especially of gold and manganese, has been going on for many years. The area is associated with heavy rains, but for the past few years it has been observed that the rainfall pattern has changed. It is generally conceived by many inhabitants of the area that it is ...

  12. Changes in rainfall seasonality in the tropics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, X.; Porporato, A. M.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change has altered not only the overall magnitude of rainfall but also their seasonal distribution and interannual variability across the world. Such changes in the rainfall regimes will be most keenly felt in arid and semiarid regions, where the availability and timing of water are key factors controlling biogeochemical cycles, primary productivity, and phenology, in addition to regulating regional agricultural production and economic output. Nevertheless, due to the inherent complexity of the signals, a comprehensive framework to understand seasonal rainfall profiles across multiple timescales and geographical regions is still lacking. Here, we formulate a global measure of seasonality and investigate changes in the seasonal rainfall regime across the tropics in the past century. The seasonality index, which captures the effects of both the magnitude and concentration of the rainy season, is highest in the northeast region of Brazil, western and central Africa, northern Australia, and parts of the Caribbean and Southeast Asia (the seasonally dry tropics). Further decomposing rainfall seasonality into its magnitude, duration, and timing components using spectral techniques and information theory, we find marked increase in the interannual variability of seasonality over most of the dry tropics, implying increasing uncertainty in the intensity, duration, and arrival of seasonal rainfall over the past century. We also show that such increase in variability has occurred in conjunction with shifts in the seasonal timing and changes in its overall magnitude. Thus, it is importance to place the analysis of rainfall regimes in these regions into a seasonal context that is most relevant to local ecological and social processes. These changes, if sustained into the next century, will portend significant shifts in the timing of plant activities and ecosystem composition and distribution, with consequences for water and carbon cycling and water resource management in

  13. Evaluation of Satellite Based Rainfall Estimation over Major River Basins in Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bitew, M. M.; Gebremichael, M.

    2012-12-01

    Accuracy of satellite rainfall estimates are poorly known over Africa because of sparse ground based observations. We examined four widely used high resolution satellite products: the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) which is near-real-time (TMPA 3B42RT), the TMPA method post-real-time research version seven (TMPA 3B42v7), the Climate Prediction Center's morphing technique (CMORPH) and the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN). The main objective of the evaluation was to assess the performance of the satellite based estimates in capturing the overall climatological blueprints of rainfall over Africa at various spatio-temporal scale, and inter-comparison of the estimates across the various climatological regimes in Africa. In the tropical, complex terrain region of East Africa, the results show poor skills of satellite rainfall in capturing elevation dependent rainfall structure; microwave based CMORPH and 3B42RT estimates provide relatively accurate estimate of rainfall in high elevation areas but showed excessive overestimation in low elevation, and merging GTS-based rain gauges with the Satellite-Only products deteriorated the accuracy of rainfall estimation in high elevation areas of the Blue Nile. In this study we present the findings over seven other large and sparsely gauged river basins: Sengal (419,659 km2), Jubba (497,655 km2), Volta (407,093 km2), Ogooue (223,656 km2), Ubangi (613,202 km2) Okavango (721,277 km2) and Kasai (925,172 km2) river basins representing different topography and climate system between 250 N and 250 S. The accuracy of those products is assessed using a ground based GPCC datasets and through inter-comparision among the products between 2003 -2011 at a resolution of 25 km by 25-km and 3 hr data. Based on these datasets we present annual, seasonal and monthly spatial structure of rainfall in terms of depth, rainy days

  14. The influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation on boreal winter rainfall over Peninsular Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard, Sandra; Walsh, Kevin J. E.

    2017-09-01

    Multi-scale interactions between El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Boreal Winter Monsoon contribute to rainfall variations over Malaysia. Understanding the physical mechanisms that control these spatial variations in local rainfall is crucial for improving weather and climate prediction and related risk management. Analysis using station observations and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Interim Reanalysis (ERA-Interim) reanalysis reveals a significant decrease in rainfall during El Niño (EL) and corresponding increase during La Niña particularly north of 2°N over Peninsular Malaysia (PM). It is noted that the southern tip of PM shows a small increase in rainfall during El Niño although not significant. Analysis of the diurnal cycle of rainfall and winds indicates that there are no significant changes in morning and evening rainfall over PM that could explain the north-south disparity. Thus, we suggest that the key factor which might explain the north-south rainfall disparity is the moisture flux convergence (MFC). During the December to January (DJF) period of EL years, except for the southern tip of PM, significant negative MFC causes drying as well as suppression of uplift over most areas. In addition, lower specific humidity combined with moisture flux divergence results in less moisture over PM. Thus, over the areas north of 2°N, less rainfall (less heavy rain days) with smaller diurnal rainfall amplitude explains the negative rainfall anomaly observed during DJF of EL. The same MFC argument might explain the dipolar pattern over other areas such as Borneo if further analysis is performed.

  15. Analyses of the temporal and spatial structures of heavy rainfall from a catalog of high-resolution radar rainfall fields

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren; Smith, James A.; Baeck, Mary Lynn

    2014-01-01

    that relate to size, structure and evolution of heavy rainfall. Extreme rainfall is also linked with severe weather (tornados, large hail and damaging wind). The diurnal cycle of rainfall for heavy rain days is characterized by an early peak in the largest rainfall rates, an afternoon-evening peak in rain...

  16. Global rainfall erosivity assessment based on high-temporal resolution rainfall records.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panagos, Panos; Borrelli, Pasquale; Meusburger, Katrin; Yu, Bofu; Klik, Andreas; Jae Lim, Kyoung; Yang, Jae E; Ni, Jinren; Miao, Chiyuan; Chattopadhyay, Nabansu; Sadeghi, Seyed Hamidreza; Hazbavi, Zeinab; Zabihi, Mohsen; Larionov, Gennady A; Krasnov, Sergey F; Gorobets, Andrey V; Levi, Yoav; Erpul, Gunay; Birkel, Christian; Hoyos, Natalia; Naipal, Victoria; Oliveira, Paulo Tarso S; Bonilla, Carlos A; Meddi, Mohamed; Nel, Werner; Al Dashti, Hassan; Boni, Martino; Diodato, Nazzareno; Van Oost, Kristof; Nearing, Mark; Ballabio, Cristiano

    2017-06-23

    The exposure of the Earth's surface to the energetic input of rainfall is one of the key factors controlling water erosion. While water erosion is identified as the most serious cause of soil degradation globally, global patterns of rainfall erosivity remain poorly quantified and estimates have large uncertainties. This hampers the implementation of effective soil degradation mitigation and restoration strategies. Quantifying rainfall erosivity is challenging as it requires high temporal resolution(rainfall recordings. We present the results of an extensive global data collection effort whereby we estimated rainfall erosivity for 3,625 stations covering 63 countries. This first ever Global Rainfall Erosivity Database was used to develop a global erosivity map at 30 arc-seconds(~1 km) based on a Gaussian Process Regression(GPR). Globally, the mean rainfall erosivity was estimated to be 2,190 MJ mm ha -1 h -1 yr -1 , with the highest values in South America and the Caribbean countries, Central east Africa and South east Asia. The lowest values are mainly found in Canada, the Russian Federation, Northern Europe, Northern Africa and the Middle East. The tropical climate zone has the highest mean rainfall erosivity followed by the temperate whereas the lowest mean was estimated in the cold climate zone.

  17. The all-year rainfall region of South Africa: Satellite rainfall-estimate perspective

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Engelbrecht, CJ

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available southwest (Figure 3, node [0;2]). FIG. 3: Average frequency of occurrence of the SOM nodes in TRMM (blue) and FEWS (green). 4. CONCLUSION The bi-modal rainfall distribution over the all-year rainfall region of South Africa as previously determined...

  18. Seasonal variation and climate change impact in Rainfall Erosivity across Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panagos, Panos; Borrelli, Pasquale; Meusburger, Katrin; Alewell, Christine; Ballabio, Cristiano

    2017-04-01

    Rainfall erosivity quantifies the climatic effect on water erosion and is of high importance for soil scientists, land use planners, agronomists, hydrologists and environmental scientists in general. The rainfall erosivity combines the influence of rainfall duration, magnitude, frequency and intensity. Rainfall erosivity is calculated from a series of single storm events by multiplying the total storm kinetic energy with the measured maximum 30-minute rainfall intensity. This estimation requests high temporal resolution (e.g. 30 minutes) rainfall data for sufficiently long time periods (i.e. 20 years). The European Commission's Joint Research Centr(JRC) in collaboration with national/regional meteorological services and Environmental Institutions made an extensive data collection of high resolution rainfall data in the 28 Member States of the European Union plus Switzerland to estimate rainfall erosivity in Europe. This resulted in the Rainfall Erosivity Database on the European Scale (REDES) which included 1,675 stations. The interpolation of those point erosivity values with a Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) model has resulted in the first Rainfall Erosivity map of Europe (Science of the Total Environment, 511: 801-815). In 2016, REDES extended with a monthly component, which allowed developing monthly and seasonal erosivity maps and assessing rainfall erosivity both spatially and temporally for European Union and Switzerland. The monthly erosivity maps have been used to develop composite indicators that map both intra-annual variability and concentration of erosive events (Science of the Total Environment, 579: 1298-1315). Consequently, spatio-temporal mapping of rainfall erosivity permits to identify the months and the areas with highest risk of soil loss where conservation measures should be applied in different seasons of the year. Finally, the identification of the most erosive month allows recommending certain agricultural management practices (crop

  19. Are estimates of anthropogenic and natural influences on Australia's extreme 2010-2012 rainfall model-dependent?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Sophie C.; Karoly, David J.

    2015-08-01

    Australia experienced much above average rainfall in association with strong, extended La Niña conditions during 2010-2012. Was the heavy Australian rainfall influenced by La Niña conditions and/or anthropogenic greenhouse gases? We investigate the relative contributions of anthropogenic climate change and natural climatic variability to the likelihood of heavy Australian rainfall using three distinct model datasets. Area-average rainfall anomalies for model simulations with natural forcings only were compared to simulations with both anthropogenic and natural forcings using 16 models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. Using fraction of attributable risk to compare the likelihood of unusual rainfall between the parallel experiments, we find attribution statements are uncertain, with FAR values sensitive to the attribution parameters considered, including thresholds, regions and seasons. When heavy rainfall probabilities were next investigated in ensembles of two atmospheric general circulation models, run with and without anthropogenically-induced sea surface temperature changes, results were model-dependent. Overall, the attribution of seasonal-scale heavy Australia rainfall to a particular cause is likely more complicated than for temperature extremes. As estimates of the greenhouse gas attributable change in rainfall risk may depend on the model datasets considered, it is also useful to consider model outputs from several datasets and using various estimates of counterfactual surface conditions to establish robust attribution statements for extreme rainfall events. In contrast, comparing the likelihoods of heavy rainfall during simulated La Niña years with El Niño/neutral years reveals a substantial La Niña influence on Australian rainfall during 2010-2012 that is robust to changes in the attribution framework.

  20. Spatial moments of catchment rainfall: rainfall spatial organisation, basin morphology, and flood response

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Zoccatelli

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes a set of spatial rainfall statistics (termed "spatial moments of catchment rainfall" quantifying the dependence existing between spatial rainfall organisation, basin morphology and runoff response. These statistics describe the spatial rainfall organisation in terms of concentration and dispersion statistics as a function of the distance measured along the flow routing coordinate. The introduction of these statistics permits derivation of a simple relationship for the quantification of catchment-scale storm velocity. The concept of the catchment-scale storm velocity takes into account the role of relative catchment orientation and morphology with respect to storm motion and kinematics. The paper illustrates the derivation of the statistics from an analytical framework recently proposed in literature and explains the conceptual meaning of the statistics by applying them to five extreme flash floods occurred in various European regions in the period 2002–2007. High resolution radar rainfall fields and a distributed hydrologic model are employed to examine how effective are these statistics in describing the degree of spatial rainfall organisation which is important for runoff modelling. This is obtained by quantifying the effects of neglecting the spatial rainfall variability on flood modelling, with a focus on runoff timing. The size of the study catchments ranges between 36 to 982 km2. The analysis reported here shows that the spatial moments of catchment rainfall can be effectively employed to isolate and describe the features of rainfall spatial organization which have significant impact on runoff simulation. These statistics provide useful information on what space-time scales rainfall has to be monitored, given certain catchment and flood characteristics, and what are the effects of space-time aggregation on flood response modeling.

  1. Rainfall forecast in the Upper Mahaweli basin in Sri Lanka using RegCM model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muhammadh, K. M.; Mafas, M. M. M.; Weerakoon, S. B.

    2017-04-01

    The Upper Mahaweli basin is the upper most sub basin of 788 km2 in size above Polgolla barrage in the Mahaweli River, the longest river in Sri Lanka which starts from the central hills of the island and drains to the sea at the North-east coast. Rainfall forecast in the Upper Mahaweli basin is important for issuing flood warning in the river downstream of the reservoirs, landslide warning in the settlements in hilly areas. Anticipatory water management in the basin including reservoir operations, barrage gate operation for releasing water for irrigation and flood control also require reliable rainfall and runoff prediction in the sub basin. In this study, the Regional Climate Model (RegCM V4.4.5.11) is calibrated for the basin to dynamically downscale reanalysis weather data of Global Climate Model (GCM) to forecast the rainfall in the basin. Observed rainfalls at gauging stations within the basin were used for model calibration and validation. The observed rainfall data was analysed using ARC GIS and the output of RegCM was analysed using GrADS tool. The output of the model and the observed precipitation were obtained on grids of size 0.1 degrees and the accuracy of the predictions were analysed using RMSE and Mean Model Absolute Error percentage (MAME %). The predictions by the calibrated RegCM model for the basin is shown to be satisfactory. The model is a useful tool for rainfall forecast in the Upper Mahaweli River basin.

  2. Association of Taiwan’s Rainfall Patterns with Large-Scale Oceanic and Atmospheric Phenomena

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi-Chun Kuo

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A 50-year (1960–2009 monthly rainfall gridded dataset produced by the Taiwan Climate Change Projection and Information Platform Project was presented in this study. The gridded data (5 × 5 km displayed influence of topography on spatial variability of rainfall, and the results of the empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs analysis revealed the patterns associated with the large-scale sea surface temperature variability over Pacific. The first mode (65% revealed the annual peaks of large rainfall in the southwestern mountainous area, which is associated with southwest monsoons and typhoons during summertime. The second temporal EOF mode (16% revealed the rainfall variance associated with the monsoon and its interaction with the slopes of the mountain range. This pattern is the major contributor to spatial variance of rainfall in Taiwan, as indicated by the first mode (40% of spatial variance EOF analysis. The second temporal EOF mode correlated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO. In particular, during the autumn of the La Niña years following the strong El Niño years, the time-varying amplitude was substantially greater than that of normal years. The third temporal EOF mode (7% revealed a north-south out-of-phase rainfall pattern, the slowly evolving variations of which were in phase with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Because of Taiwan’s geographic location and the effect of local terrestrial structures, climate variability related to ENSO differed markedly from other regions in East Asia.

  3. Shannon information entropy for assessing space-time variability of rainfall and streamflow in semiarid region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodrigues da Silva, Vicente de P; Belo Filho, Adelgcio F; Rodrigues Almeida, Rafaela S; de Holanda, Romildo Morant; da Cunha Campos, João Hugo Baracuy

    2016-02-15

    The principle of maximum entropy can provide consistent basis to analyze water resources and geophysical processes in general. In this paper, we propose to assess the space-time variability of rainfall and streamflow in northeastern region of Brazil using the Shannon entropy. Mean values of marginal and relative entropies were computed for a 10-year period from 189 stations in the study area and entropy maps were then constructed for delineating annual and seasonal characteristics of rainfall and streamflow. The Mann-Kendall test was used to evaluate the long-term trend in marginal entropy as well as relative entropy for two sample stations. High degree of similarity was found between rainfall and streamflow, particularly during dry season. Both rainfall and streamflow variability can satisfactorily be obtained in terms of marginal entropy as a comprehensive measure of the regional uncertainty of these hydrological events. The Shannon entropy produced spatial patterns which led to a better understanding of rainfall and streamflow characteristics throughout the northeastern region of Brazil. The total relative entropy indicated that rainfall and streamflow carried the same information content at annual and rainy season time scales. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. A statistical analysis of insurance damage claims related to rainfall extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spekkers, M. H.; Kok, M.; Clemens, F. H. L. R.; ten Veldhuis, J. A. E.

    2013-03-01

    In this paper, a database of water-related insurance damage claims related to private properties and content was analysed. The aim was to investigate whether the probability of occurrence of rainfall-related damage was associated with the intensity of rainfall. Rainfall data were used for the period of 2003-2009 in the Netherlands based on a network of 33 automatic rain gauges operated by the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute. Insurance damage data were aggregated to areas within 10-km range of the rain gauges. Through a logistic regression model, high claim numbers were linked to maximum rainfall intensities, with rainfall intensity based on 10-min to 4-h time windows. Rainfall intensity proved to be a significant damage predictor; however, the explained variance, approximated by a pseudo-R2 statistic, was at most 34% for property damage and at most 30% for content damage. When directly comparing predicted and observed values, the model was able to predict 5-17% more cases correctly compared to a random prediction. No important differences were found between relations with property and content damage data. A considerable fraction of the variance is left unexplained, which emphasizes the need to study damage generating mechanisms and additional explanatory variables.

  5. Prediction of Moderate and Heavy Rainfall in New Zealand Using Data Assimilation and Ensemble

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Yang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This numerical weather prediction study investigates the effects of data assimilation and ensemble prediction on the forecast accuracy of moderate and heavy rainfall over New Zealand. In order to ascertain the optimal implementation of state-of-the-art 3Dvar and 4Dvar data assimilation techniques, 12 different experiments have been conducted for the period from 13 September to 18 October 2010 using the New Zealand limited area model. Verification has shown that an ensemble based on these experiments outperforms all of the individual members using a variety of metrics. In addition, the rainfall occurrence probability derived from the ensemble is a good predictor of heavy rainfall. Mountains significantly affect the performance of this ensemble which provides better forecasts of heavy rainfall over the South Island than over the North Island. Analysis suggests that underestimation of orographic lifting due to the relatively low resolution of the model (~12 km is a factor leading to this variability in heavy rainfall forecast skill. This study indicates that regional ensemble prediction with a suitably fine model resolution (≤5 km would be a useful tool for forecasting heavy rainfall over New Zealand.

  6. Event-based rainfall-runoff modelling of the Kelantan River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basarudin, Z.; Adnan, N. A.; Latif, A. R. A.; Tahir, W.; Syafiqah, N.

    2014-02-01

    Flood is one of the most common natural disasters in Malaysia. According to hydrologists there are many causes that contribute to flood events. The two most dominant factors are the meteorology factor (i.e climate change) and change in land use. These two factors contributed to floods in recent decade especially in the monsoonal catchment such as Malaysia. This paper intends to quantify the influence of rainfall during extreme rainfall events on the hydrological model in the Kelantan River catchment. Therefore, two dynamic inputs were used in the study: rainfall and river discharge. The extreme flood events in 2008 and 2004 were compared based on rainfall data for both years. The events were modeled via a semi-distributed HEC-HMS hydrological model. Land use change was not incorporated in the study because the study only tries to quantify rainfall changes during these two events to simulate the discharge and runoff value. Therefore, the land use data representing the year 2004 were used as inputs in the 2008 runoff model. The study managed to demonstrate that rainfall change has a significant impact to determine the peak discharge and runoff depth for the study area.

  7. Event-based rainfall-runoff modelling of the Kelantan River Basin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Basarudin, Z; Adnan, N A; Latif, A R A; Syafiqah, N; Tahir, W

    2014-01-01

    Flood is one of the most common natural disasters in Malaysia. According to hydrologists there are many causes that contribute to flood events. The two most dominant factors are the meteorology factor (i.e climate change) and change in land use. These two factors contributed to floods in recent decade especially in the monsoonal catchment such as Malaysia. This paper intends to quantify the influence of rainfall during extreme rainfall events on the hydrological model in the Kelantan River catchment. Therefore, two dynamic inputs were used in the study: rainfall and river discharge. The extreme flood events in 2008 and 2004 were compared based on rainfall data for both years. The events were modeled via a semi-distributed HEC-HMS hydrological model. Land use change was not incorporated in the study because the study only tries to quantify rainfall changes during these two events to simulate the discharge and runoff value. Therefore, the land use data representing the year 2004 were used as inputs in the 2008 runoff model. The study managed to demonstrate that rainfall change has a significant impact to determine the peak discharge and runoff depth for the study area

  8. Panel regressions to estimate low-flow response to rainfall variability in ungaged basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bassiouni, Maoya; Vogel, Richard M.; Archfield, Stacey A.

    2016-01-01

    Multicollinearity and omitted-variable bias are major limitations to developing multiple linear regression models to estimate streamflow characteristics in ungaged areas and varying rainfall conditions. Panel regression is used to overcome limitations of traditional regression methods, and obtain reliable model coefficients, in particular to understand the elasticity of streamflow to rainfall. Using annual rainfall and selected basin characteristics at 86 gaged streams in the Hawaiian Islands, regional regression models for three stream classes were developed to estimate the annual low-flow duration discharges. Three panel-regression structures (random effects, fixed effects, and pooled) were compared to traditional regression methods, in which space is substituted for time. Results indicated that panel regression generally was able to reproduce the temporal behavior of streamflow and reduce the standard errors of model coefficients compared to traditional regression, even for models in which the unobserved heterogeneity between streams is significant and the variance inflation factor for rainfall is much greater than 10. This is because both spatial and temporal variability were better characterized in panel regression. In a case study, regional rainfall elasticities estimated from panel regressions were applied to ungaged basins on Maui, using available rainfall projections to estimate plausible changes in surface-water availability and usable stream habitat for native species. The presented panel-regression framework is shown to offer benefits over existing traditional hydrologic regression methods for developing robust regional relations to investigate streamflow response in a changing climate.

  9. Design evaluation of the 20-cm (8-inch) secondary burner system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rode, J.S.

    1977-08-01

    This report describes an evaluation of the design of the existing 20-cm (8-inch) engineering-scale secondary burner system in the HTGR reprocessing cold pilot plant at General Atomic Co. The purpose of this evaluation is to assess the suitability of the existing design as a prototype of the HTGR Recycle Demonstration Facility (HRDF) secondary burner system and to recommend alternatives where the existing design is thought to be unsuitable as a prototype. This evaluation has led to recommendations for the parallel development of two integrated design concepts for a prototype secondary burner system. One concept utilizes the existing burner heating and cooling subsystems in order to minimize development risk, but simplifies a number of other features associated with remote maintenance and burner operation. The other concept, which offers maximum cost reduction, utilizes internal gas cooling of the burner, retains the existing heating subsystem for design compatibility, but requires considerable development to reduce the risk to acceptable limits. These concepts, as well as other design alternatives, are described and evaluated.

  10. Performance and Flowfield Measurements on a 10-inch Ducted Rotor VTOL UAV

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Preston; Tung, Chee

    2004-01-01

    A ducted fan VTOL UAV with a 10-inch diameter rotor was tested in the US Army 7-by 10-Foot Wind Tunnel. The test conditions covered a range of angle of attack from 0 to 110 degrees to the freestream. The tunnel velocity was varied from 0 (simulating a hover condition) to 128 ft/sec in propeller mode. A six-component internal balance measured the aerodynamic loads for a range of model configurations. including the isolated rotor, the isolated duct, and the full configuration of the duct and rotor. For some conditions, hotwire velocity surveys were conducted along the inner and outer surface of the duct and across the downstream wake. In addition, fluorescent oil flow visualization allowed the flow separation patterns inside and outside of the duct to be mapped for a few test conditions. Two different duct shapes were tested to determine the performance effects of leading edge radius. For each duct, a range of rotor tip gap from 1%R to 4.5%R was tested to determine the performance penalty in hover and axial flight. Measured results are presented in terms of hover performance, hover performance in a crosswind, and high angle of attack performance in propeller mode. In each case, the effects of both tip gap and duct leading edge radius are illustrated using measurements. Some of the hover performance issues were also studied using a simple analytical method, and the results agreed with the measurements.

  11. Summary of LaRC 2-inch Erectable Joint Hardware Heritage Test Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorsey, John T.; Watson, Judith J.

    2016-01-01

    As the National Space Transportation System (STS, also known as the Space Shuttle) went into service during the early 1980's, NASA envisioned many missions of exploration and discovery that could take advantage of the STS capabilities. These missions included: large orbiting space stations, large space science telescopes and large spacecraft for manned missions to the Moon and Mars. The missions required structures that were significantly larger than the payload volume available on the STS. NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) conducted studies to design and develop the technology needed to assemble the large space structures in orbit. LaRC focused on technology for erectable truss structures, in particular, the joint that connects the truss struts at the truss nodes. When the NASA research in large erectable space structures ended in the early 1990's, a significant amount of structural testing had been performed on the LaRC 2-inch erectable joint that was never published. An extensive set of historical information and data has been reviewed and the joint structural testing results from this historical data are compiled and summarized in this report.

  12. Design evaluation of the 20-cm (8-inch) secondary burner system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rode, J.S.

    1977-08-01

    This report describes an evaluation of the design of the existing 20-cm (8-inch) engineering-scale secondary burner system in the HTGR reprocessing cold pilot plant at General Atomic Co. The purpose of this evaluation is to assess the suitability of the existing design as a prototype of the HTGR Recycle Demonstration Facility (HRDF) secondary burner system and to recommend alternatives where the existing design is thought to be unsuitable as a prototype. This evaluation has led to recommendations for the parallel development of two integrated design concepts for a prototype secondary burner system. One concept utilizes the existing burner heating and cooling subsystems in order to minimize development risk, but simplifies a number of other features associated with remote maintenance and burner operation. The other concept, which offers maximum cost reduction, utilizes internal gas cooling of the burner, retains the existing heating subsystem for design compatibility, but requires considerable development to reduce the risk to acceptable limits. These concepts, as well as other design alternatives, are described and evaluated

  13. Development of the Software for 30 inch Telescope Control System at KHAO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mun, B.-S.; Kim, S.-J.; Jang, M.; Min, S.-W.; Seol, K.-H.; Moon, K.-S.

    2006-12-01

    Even though 30inch optical telescope at Kyung Hee Astronomy Observatory has been used to produce a series of scientific achievements since its first light in 1992, numerous difficulties in the operation of the telescope have hindered the precise observations needed for further researches. Since the currently used PC-TCS (Personal Computer based Telescope Control system) software based on ISA-bus type is outdated, it doesn't have a user friendly interface and make it impossible to scale. Also accumulated errors which are generated by discordance from input and output signals into a motion controller required new control system. Thus we have improved the telescope control system by updating software and modifying mechanical parts. We applied a new BLDC (brushless DC) servo motor system to the mechanical parts of the telescope and developed a control software using Visual Basic 6.0. As a result, we could achieve a high accuracy in controlling of the telescope and use the userfriendly GUI (Graphic User Interface).

  14. Rainfall estimation by inverting SMOS soil moisture estimates: A comparison of different methods over Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brocca, Luca; Pellarin, Thierry; Crow, Wade T.; Ciabatta, Luca; Massari, Christian; Ryu, Dongryeol; Su, Chun-Hsu; Rüdiger, Christoph; Kerr, Yann

    2016-10-01

    Remote sensing of soil moisture has reached a level of maturity and accuracy for which the retrieved products can be used to improve hydrological and meteorological applications. In this study, the soil moisture product from the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite is used for improving satellite rainfall estimates obtained from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission multisatellite precipitation analysis product (TMPA) using three different "bottom up" techniques: SM2RAIN, Soil Moisture Analysis Rainfall Tool, and Antecedent Precipitation Index Modification. The implementation of these techniques aims at improving the well-known "top down" rainfall estimate derived from TMPA products (version 7) available in near real time. Ground observations provided by the Australian Water Availability Project are considered as a separate validation data set. The three algorithms are calibrated against the gauge-corrected TMPA reanalysis product, 3B42, and used for adjusting the TMPA real-time product, 3B42RT, using SMOS soil moisture data. The study area covers the entire Australian continent, and the analysis period ranges from January 2010 to November 2013. Results show that all the SMOS-based rainfall products improve the performance of 3B42RT, even at daily time scale (differently from previous investigations). The major improvements are obtained in terms of estimation of accumulated rainfall with a reduction of the root-mean-square error of more than 25%. Also, in terms of temporal dynamic (correlation) and rainfall detection (categorical scores) the SMOS-based products provide slightly better results with respect to 3B42RT, even though the relative performance between the methods is not always the same. The strengths and weaknesses of each algorithm and the spatial variability of their performances are identified in order to indicate the ways forward for this promising research activity. Results show that the integration of bottom up and top down approaches

  15. ANALYSIS OF RAINFALL DATA TO ESTIMATE RAIN CONTRIBUTION TOWARDS CROP WATER REQUIREMENT USING CROPWAT MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tahir Saeed Laghari

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available A study was carried out to define the analysis of rainfall data in order to estimate its contribution towards crop water requirements to overcome these problems. Rainfall and climatic data was collected from metrological stations, C.P UAF rain gauge (A, (AARI, (B, (CAA, (C and (WAPDA, (D, Faisalabad of given region and this data was reserved for cross validation. The test station’s (A rainfall data was subjected to double mass curve technique to check its consistency with respect to other rainfall stations (B, C and D in that area. The results derived by double curve technique were accurate for interested gauge station because there was no any break in curve. Then this consistent data was used to determine effective rainfall. The ETo was established by using penman-monteith method in the course of CROPWAT model and its effect with respect to other parameters like sun shine hour, wind speed, maximum & minimum temperature and rainfall humidity were determined. It was founded that the reference evapotranspiration (ETo is more during April to September due to increase in temperature and low in remaining months. After that data was placed in the model to acquire crop water requirement and irrigation of illustrative crops (wheat & maize from the district. Through which we estimated that 7.5% rainfall for wheat and 15.5% rainfall for maize can contribute in actual irrigation per year. Through which we determined that 92.5 % and 84.5 % irrigation is required for wheat and maize crop respectively.

  16. Stochastic Modeling of Rainfall Series in Kelantan Using an Advanced Weather Generator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. H. Syafrina

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Weather generator is a numerical tool that uses existing meteorological records to generate series of synthetic weather data. The AWE-GEN (Advanced Weather Generator model has been successful in producing a broad range of temporal scale weather variables, ranging from the high-frequency hourly values to the low-frequency inter-annual variability. In Malaysia, AWE-GEN has produced reliable projections of extreme rainfall events for some parts of Peninsular Malaysia. This study focuses on the use of AWE-GEN model to assess rainfall distribution in Kelantan. Kelantan is situated on the north east of the Peninsular, a region which is highly susceptible to flood. Embedded within the AWE-GEN model is the Neyman Scott process which employs parameters to represent physical rainfall characteristics. The use of correct probability distributions to represent the parameters is imperative to allow reliable results to be produced. This study compares the performance of two probability distributions, Weibull and Gamma to represent rainfall intensity and the better distribution found was used subsequently to simulate hourly scaled rainfall series. Thirty years of hourly scaled meteorological data from two stations in Kelantan were used in model construction. Results indicate that both probability distributions are capable of replicating the rainfall series at both stations very well, however numerical evaluations suggested that Gamma performs better. Despite Gamma not being a heavy tailed distribution, it is able to replicate the key characteristics of rainfall series and particularly extreme values. The overall simulation results showed that the AWE-GEN model is capable of generating tropical rainfall series which could be beneficial in flood preparedness studies in areas vulnerable to flood.

  17. Simulation of rainfall-runoff for major flash flood events in Karachi

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zafar, Sumaira

    2016-07-01

    Metropolitan city Karachi has strategic importance for Pakistan. With the each passing decade the city is facing urban sprawl and rapid population growth. These rapid changes directly affecting the natural resources of city including its drainage pattern. Karachi has three major cities Malir River with the catchment area of 2252 sqkm and Lyari River has catchment area about 470.4 sqkm. These are non-perennial rivers and active only during storms. Change of natural surfaces into hard pavement causing an increase in rainfall-runoff response. Curve Number is increased which is now causing flash floods in the urban locality of Karachi. There is only one gauge installed on the upstream of the river but there no record for the discharge. Only one gauge located at the upstream is not sufficient for discharge measurements. To simulate the maximum discharge of Malir River rainfall (1985 to 2014) data were collected from Pakistan meteorological department. Major rainfall events use to simulate the rainfall runoff. Maximum rainfall-runoff response was recorded in during 1994, 2007 and 2013. This runoff causes damages and inundation in floodplain areas of Karachi. These flash flooding events not only damage the property but also cause losses of lives

  18. Radiation Characterization Summary: ACRR Central Cavity Free-Field Environment with the 32-Inch Pedestal at the Core Centerline (ACRR-FF-CC-32-cl).

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vega, Richard Manuel [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Parma, Edward J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Naranjo, Gerald E. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Lippert, Lance L. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Vehar, David W. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Griffin, Patrick J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-08-01

    This document presents the facilit y - recommended characteri zation o f the neutron, prompt gamma - ray, and delayed gamma - ray radiation fields in the Annular Core Research Reactor ( ACRR ) for the cen tral cavity free - field environment with the 32 - inch pedestal at the core centerline. The designation for this environmen t is ACRR - FF - CC - 32 - cl. The neutron, prompt gamma - ray , and delayed gamma - ray energy spectra , uncertainties, and covariance matrices are presented as well as radial and axial neutron and gamma - ray fluence profiles within the experiment area of the cavity . Recommended constants are given to facilitate the conversion of various dosimetry readings into radiation metrics desired by experimenters. Representative pulse operations are presented with conversion examples . Acknowledgements The authors wish to th ank the Annular Core Research Reactor staff and the Radiation Metrology Laboratory staff for their support of this work . Also thanks to David Ames for his assistance in running MCNP on the Sandia parallel machines.

  19. A method for predicting monthly rainfall patterns

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Njau, E.C.

    1987-11-01

    A brief survey is made of previous methods that have been used to predict rainfall trends or drought spells in different parts of the earth. The basic methodologies or theoretical strategies used in these methods are compared with contents of a recent theory of Sun-Weather/Climate links (Njau, 1985a; 1985b; 1986; 1987a; 1987b; 1987c) which point towards the possibility of practical climatic predictions. It is shown that not only is the theoretical basis of each of these methodologies or strategies fully incorporated into the above-named theory, but also this theory may be used to develop a technique by which future monthly rainfall patterns can be predicted in further and finer details. We describe the latter technique and then illustrate its workability by means of predictions made on monthly rainfall patterns in some East African meteorological stations. (author). 43 refs, 11 figs, 2 tabs

  20. Uncertainty based modeling of rainfall-runoff: Combined differential evolution adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) and K-means clustering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zahmatkesh, Zahra; Karamouz, Mohammad; Nazif, Sara

    2015-09-01

    Simulation of rainfall-runoff process in urban areas is of great importance considering the consequences and damages of extreme runoff events and floods. The first issue in flood hazard analysis is rainfall simulation. Large scale climate signals have been proved to be effective in rainfall simulation and prediction. In this study, an integrated scheme is developed for rainfall-runoff modeling considering different sources of uncertainty. This scheme includes three main steps of rainfall forecasting, rainfall-runoff simulation and future runoff prediction. In the first step, data driven models are developed and used to forecast rainfall using large scale climate signals as rainfall predictors. Due to high effect of different sources of uncertainty on the output of hydrologic models, in the second step uncertainty associated with input data, model parameters and model structure is incorporated in rainfall-runoff modeling and simulation. Three rainfall-runoff simulation models are developed for consideration of model conceptual (structural) uncertainty in real time runoff forecasting. To analyze the uncertainty of the model structure, streamflows generated by alternative rainfall-runoff models are combined, through developing a weighting method based on K-means clustering. Model parameters and input uncertainty are investigated using an adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. Finally, calibrated rainfall-runoff models are driven using the forecasted rainfall to predict future runoff for the watershed. The proposed scheme is employed in the case study of the Bronx River watershed, New York City. Results of uncertainty analysis of rainfall-runoff modeling reveal that simultaneous estimation of model parameters and input uncertainty significantly changes the probability distribution of the model parameters. It is also observed that by combining the outputs of the hydrological models using the proposed clustering scheme, the accuracy of runoff simulation in the

  1. Evaluation of High-Resolution Satellite Rainfall Estimates in Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia: A Hydrological Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bitew, Menberu Meles

    satellite rainfall algorithms, watershed size, and hydrologic model complexity levels. The results showed that there are significant bias in satellite rainfall estimates, large variations among them and the simulation outputs. The major conclusions are as follows. i) Infrared-based and Satellite-Gauge merged satellite rainfall products severely underestimate rainfall in the mountainous regions of the Blue Nile; ii) microwave-based Satellite-Only algorithms provide reasonably accurate rainfall estimation in high elevation areas; iii) Satellite-Gauge merging algorithm provides relatively accurate estimate in low elevation areas where rain gauge density is low but unexpectedly severely amplifies errors in high elevation region; iv) rain gauge calibrated hydrologic model simulations amplify errors in satellite rainfall estimates; and v) calibrating the models using the corresponding satellite rainfall as inputs and using streamflow as the only objective function significantly improves the performance of simulated streamflow but decreased the performance of other water balance components. This study showed that accuracy of streamflow simulation is not always the reflection of accuracy of satellite rainfall estimates because of the effects of calibration on the propagation of satellite errors to other water balance components other than streamflow. Therefore, caution must be exercised when using streamflow as a way of evaluating satellite rainfall.

  2. Rainfall trends in the South Asian summer monsoon and its related large-scale dynamics with focus over Pakistan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Latif, M.; Syed, F. S.; Hannachi, A.

    2017-06-01

    The study of regional rainfall trends over South Asia is critically important for food security and economy, as both these factors largely depend on the availability of water. In this study, South Asian summer monsoon rainfall trends on seasonal and monthly (June-September) time scales have been investigated using three observational data sets. Our analysis identify a dipole-type structure in rainfall trends over the region north of the Indo-Pak subcontinent, with significant increasing trends over the core monsoon region of Pakistan and significant decreasing trends over the central-north India and adjacent areas. The dipole is also evident in monthly rainfall trend analyses, which is more prominent in July and August. We show, in particular, that the strengthening of northward moisture transport over the Arabian Sea is a likely reason for the significant positive trend of rainfall in the core monsoon region of Pakistan. In contrast, over the central-north India region, the rainfall trends are significantly decreasing due to the weakening of northward moisture transport over the Bay of Bengal. The leading empirical orthogonal functions clearly show the strengthening (weakening) patterns of vertically integrated moisture transport over the Arabian Sea (Bay of Bengal) in seasonal and monthly interannual time scales. The regression analysis between the principal components and rainfall confirm the dipole pattern over the region. Our results also suggest that the extra-tropical phenomena could influence the mean monsoon rainfall trends over Pakistan by enhancing the cross-equatorial flow of moisture into the Arabian Sea.

  3. Study of acid mine drainage management with evaluating climate and rainfall in East Pit 3 West Banko coal mine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rochyani, Neny

    2017-11-01

    Acid mine drainage is a major problem for the mining environment. The main factor that formed acid mine drainage is the volume of rainfall. Therefore, it is important to know clearly the main climate pattern of rainfall and season on the management of acid mine drainage. This study focuses on the effects of rainfall on acid mine water management. Based on daily rainfall data, monthly and seasonal patterns by using Gumbel approach is known the amount of rainfall that occurred in East Pit 3 West Banko area. The data also obtained the highest maximum daily rainfall on 165 mm/day and the lowest at 76.4 mm/day, where it is known that the rainfall conditions during the period 2007 - 2016 is from November to April so the use of lime is also slightly, While the low rainfall is from May to October and the use of lime will be more and more. Based on calculation of lime requirement for each return period, it can be seen the total of lime and financial requirement for treatment of each return period.

  4. Mechanism of shallow disrupted slide induced by extreme rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Igwe, O.; Fukuoka, H.

    2010-12-01

    On July 16, 2010, extreme rainfall attacked western Japan and it caused very intense rainfall in Shobara city, Hiroshima prefecture, Japan. This rainfall induced hundreds of shallow disrupted slides and many of those became debris flows. One of this debris flows attacked a house standing in front of the exit of a channel, and claimed a resident’s life. Western Japan had repeatedly similar disasters in the past. Last event took place from July 19 to 26, 2009, when western Japan had a severe rainstorms and caused floods and landslides. Most of the landslides are debris slide - debris flows. Most devastated case took place in Hofu city, Japan. On July 21, extremely intense rainstorm caused numerous debris flows and mud flows in the hillslopes. Some of the debris flows destroyed residential houses and home for elderly people, and finally killed 14 residents. One of the unusual feature of both disaster was that landslides are distributed in very narrow area. In the 2010 Shobara city disaster, all of the landslides were distributed in 5 km x 3 km, and in the 2009 Hofu city disaster, most devastated zone of landslides were 10 km x 5 km. Rain radars of Meteorological Agency of Government of Japan detected the intense rainfall, however, the spatial resolution is usually larger than 5 km and the disaster area is too small to predict landslides nor issue warning. Furthermore, it was found that the growth rate of baby clouds was very quick. The geology of both areas are rhyolite (Shobara) and granite (Hofu), so the areal assessment of landslide hazard should be prepared before those intense rainfall will come. As for the Hofu city case, it was proved that debris flows took place in the high precipitation area and covered by covered by weathered granite sands and silts which is called “masa". This sands has been proved susceptible against landslides under extreme rainfall conditions. However, the transition from slide - debris flow process is not well revealed, except

  5. Weak linkage between the heaviest rainfall and tallest storms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamada, Atsushi; Takayabu, Yukari N; Liu, Chuntao; Zipser, Edward J

    2015-02-24

    Conventionally, the heaviest rainfall has been linked to the tallest, most intense convective storms. However, the global picture of the linkage between extreme rainfall and convection remains unclear. Here we analyse an 11-year record of spaceborne precipitation radar observations and establish that a relatively small fraction of extreme convective events produces extreme rainfall rates in any region of the tropics and subtropics. Robust differences between extreme rainfall and convective events are found in the rainfall characteristics and environmental conditions, irrespective of region; most extreme rainfall events are characterized by less intense convection with intense radar echoes not extending to extremely high altitudes. Rainfall characteristics and environmental conditions both indicate the importance of warm-rain processes in producing extreme rainfall rates. Our results demonstrate that, even in regions where severe convective storms are representative extreme weather events, the heaviest rainfall events are mostly associated with less intense convection.

  6. Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) Operation Summary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nio, Tomomi; Saito, Susumu; Stocker, Erich; Pawloski, James H.; Murayama, Yoshifumi; Ohata, Takeshi

    2015-01-01

    The Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) is a joint U.S. and Japan mission to observe tropical rainfall, which was launched by H-II No. 6 from Tanegashima in Japan at 6:27 JST on November 28, 1997. After the two-month commissioning of TRMM satellite and instruments, the original nominal mission lifetime was three years. In fact, the operations has continued for approximately 17.5 years. This paper provides a summary of the long term operations of TRMM.

  7. Sequence of instability processes triggered by heavy rainfall in the northern Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luino, Fabio

    2005-03-01

    Northern Italy is a geomorphologically heterogeneous region: high mountains, wide valleys, gentle hills and a large plain form a very varied landscape and influence the temperate climate of the area. The Alps region has harsh winters and moderately warm summers with abundant rainfall. The Po Plain has harsh winters with long periods of subfreezing temperatures and warm sultry summers, with rainfall more common in winter. Geomorphic instability processes are very common. Almost every year, landslides, mud flows and debris flows in the Alpine areas and flooding in the Po flood plain cause severe damage to structures and infrastructure and often claim human lives. Analyses of major events that have struck northern Italy over the last 35 years have provided numerous useful data for the recognition of various rainfall-triggering processes and their sequence of development in relation to the intensity and duration of rainfall. Findings acquired during and after these events emphasise that the quantity and typology of instability processes triggered by rainfall are related not only to an area's morphological and geological characteristics but also to intense rainfall distribution during meteorological disturbances. Moreover, critical rainfall thresholds can vary from place to place in relation to the climatic and geomorphological conditions of the area. Once the threshold has been exceeded, which is about 10% of the local mean annual rainfall (MAR), the instability processes on the slopes and along the hydrographic networks follow a sequence that can be reconstructed in three different phases. In the first phase, the initial instability processes that can usually be observed are soil slips on steep slopes, mud-debris flows in small basins of less than 20 km 2 in area, while discharge increases substantially in larger stream basins of up to 500 km 2. In continuous precipitation, in the second phase, first mud-debris flows can be triggered also in basins larger than 20 km 2

  8. Entropy of stable seasonal rainfall distribution in Kelantan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azman, Muhammad Az-zuhri; Zakaria, Roslinazairimah; Satari, Siti Zanariah; Radi, Noor Fadhilah Ahmad

    2017-05-01

    Investigating the rainfall variability is vital for any planning and management in many fields related to water resources. Climate change can gives an impact of water availability and may aggravate water scarcity in the future. Two statistics measurements which have been used by many researchers to measure the rainfall variability are variance and coefficient of variation. However, these two measurements are insufficient since rainfall distribution in Malaysia especially in the East Coast of Peninsular Malaysia is not symmetric instead it is positively skewed. In this study, the entropy concept is used as a tool to measure the seasonal rainfall variability in Kelantan and ten rainfall stations were selected. In previous studies, entropy of stable rainfall (ESR) and apportionment entropy (AE) were used to describe the rainfall amount variability during years for Australian rainfall data. In this study, the entropy of stable seasonal rainfall (ESSR) is suggested to model rainfall amount variability during northeast monsoon (NEM) and southwest monsoon (SWM) seasons in Kelantan. The ESSR is defined to measure the long-term average seasonal rainfall amount variability within a given year (1960-2012). On the other hand, the AE measures the rainfall amounts variability across the months. The results of ESSR and AE values show that stations in east coastline are more variable as compared to other stations inland for Kelantan rainfall. The contour maps of ESSR for Kelantan rainfall stations are also presented.

  9. Analysis of Rainfall Infiltration Law in Unsaturated Soil Slope

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Gui-rong; Qian, Ya-jun; Wang, Zhang-chun; Zhao, Bo

    2014-01-01

    In the study of unsaturated soil slope stability under rainfall infiltration, it is worth continuing to explore how much rainfall infiltrates into the slope in a rain process, and the amount of rainfall infiltrating into slope is the important factor influencing the stability. Therefore, rainfall infiltration capacity is an important issue of unsaturated seepage analysis for slope. On the basis of previous studies, rainfall infiltration law of unsaturated soil slope is analyzed. Considering the characteristics of slope and rainfall, the key factors affecting rainfall infiltration of slope, including hydraulic properties, water storage capacity (θ s - θ r), soil types, rainfall intensities, and antecedent and subsequent infiltration rates on unsaturated soil slope, are discussed by using theory analysis and numerical simulation technology. Based on critical factors changing, this paper presents three calculation models of rainfall infiltrability for unsaturated slope, including (1) infiltration model considering rainfall intensity; (2) effective rainfall model considering antecedent rainfall; (3) infiltration model considering comprehensive factors. Based on the technology of system response, the relationship of rainfall and infiltration is described, and the prototype of regression model of rainfall infiltration is given, in order to determine the amount of rain penetration during a rain process. PMID:24672332

  10. Attribution of extreme rainfall from Hurricane Harvey, August 2017

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; van der Wiel, Karin; Sebastian, Antonia; Singh, Roop; Arrighi, Julie; Otto, Friederike; Haustein, Karsten; Li, Sihan; Vecchi, Gabriel; Cullen, Heidi

    2017-12-01

    During August 25-30, 2017, Hurricane Harvey stalled over Texas and caused extreme precipitation, particularly over Houston and the surrounding area on August 26-28. This resulted in extensive flooding with over 80 fatalities and large economic costs. It was an extremely rare event: the return period of the highest observed three-day precipitation amount, 1043.4 mm 3dy-1 at Baytown, is more than 9000 years (97.5% one-sided confidence interval) and return periods exceeded 1000 yr (750 mm 3dy-1) over a large area in the current climate. Observations since 1880 over the region show a clear positive trend in the intensity of extreme precipitation of between 12% and 22%, roughly two times the increase of the moisture holding capacity of the atmosphere expected for 1 °C warming according to the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation. This would indicate that the moisture flux was increased by both the moisture content and stronger winds or updrafts driven by the heat of condensation of the moisture. We also analysed extreme rainfall in the Houston area in three ensembles of 25 km resolution models. The first also shows 2 × CC scaling, the second 1 × CC scaling and the third did not have a realistic representation of extreme rainfall on the Gulf Coast. Extrapolating these results to the 2017 event, we conclude that global warming made the precipitation about 15% (8%-19%) more intense, or equivalently made such an event three (1.5-5) times more likely. This analysis makes clear that extreme rainfall events along the Gulf Coast are on the rise. And while fortifying Houston to fully withstand the impact of an event as extreme as Hurricane Harvey may not be economically feasible, it is critical that information regarding the increasing risk of extreme rainfall events in general should be part of the discussion about future improvements to Houston’s flood protection system.

  11. Importance of incorporating agriculture in conceptual rainfall-runoff models

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Boer-Euser, Tanja; Hrachowitz, Markus; Winsemius, Hessel; Savenije, Hubert

    2016-04-01

    Incorporating spatially variable information is a frequently discussed option to increase the performance of (semi-)distributed conceptual rainfall-runoff models. One of the methods to do this is by using this spatially variable information to delineate Hydrological Response Units (HRUs) within a catchment. In large parts of Europe the original forested land cover is replaced by an agricultural land cover. This change in land cover probably affects the dominant runoff processes in the area, for example by increasing the Hortonian overland flow component, especially on the flatter and higher elevated parts of the catchment. A change in runoff processes implies a change in HRUs as well. A previous version of our model distinguished wetlands (areas close to the stream) from the remainder of the catchment. However, this configuration was not able to reproduce all fast runoff processes, both in summer as in winter. Therefore, this study tests whether the reproduction of fast runoff processes can be improved by incorporating a HRU which explicitly accounts for the effect of agriculture. A case study is carried out in the Ourthe catchment in Belgium. For this case study the relevance of different process conceptualisations is tested stepwise. Among the conceptualisations are Hortonian overland flow in summer and winter, reduced infiltration capacity due to a partly frozen soil and the relative effect of rainfall and snow smelt in case of this frozen soil. The results show that the named processes can make a large difference on event basis, especially the Hortonian overland flow in summer and the combination of rainfall and snow melt on (partly) frozen soil in winter. However, differences diminish when the modelled period of several years is evaluated based on standard metrics like Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency. These results emphasise on one hand the importance of incorporating the effects of agricultural in conceptual models and on the other hand the importance of more event

  12. Monitoring and Warning of Landslides Based On Rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yudhbir, Y.

    Management issues of landslide hazards assume much greater significance in poorest segments of society living in landslide risk prone hilly areas in developing countries. Analysis of the temporal recurrence of landslides shows that disastrous events occur with a frequency higher than the social and economic capacity of these societies to recover from previous events. In the context of landslide hazard management in In- dian Himalayan states this problem assumes much greater significance. Majority of the population lives on hill slopes which experience repeated landsliding activity es- pecially during the summer monsoon rains. Considering the high cost of structural control measures and the lack of necessary spatial database in respect of Quaternary geology, detailed topography and geohydrology etc., there is an acute need to develop a monitoring and warning system which is economical, easy to operate and does not require high technological inputs. Since most of the landslides in these areas are triggered by high incidence of rain, it appears attractive to explore development of a monitoring and warning network based on critical rainfall intensity thresholds. Such an option for management of landslide hazards would also provide useful meteorological data required for assessment of wa- ter resources, soil loss due to erosion, agricultural practices and flood incidence. In this paper, available approaches to the prediction and warning of landslide based on rainfall data will be critically reviewed. Various criteria recommended in litera- ture for threshold rainfall values in rain induced ground movements/failures would be compared and these relationships will be contrasted with the limited data available for the Indian Himalayan landslides. A plan for a network of automatic rain gauges and a suitable warning system will be discussed.

  13. A statistical downscaling model for summer rainfall over Pakistan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kazmi, Dildar Hussain; Li, Jianping; Ruan, Chengqing; Zhao, Sen; Li, Yanjie

    2016-10-01

    A statistical approach is utilized to construct an interannual model for summer (July-August) rainfall over the western parts of South Asian Monsoon. Observed monthly rainfall data for selected stations of Pakistan for the last 55 years (1960-2014) is taken as predictand. Recommended climate indices along with the oceanic and atmospheric data on global scales, for the period April-June are employed as predictors. First 40 years data has been taken as training period and the rest as validation period. Cross-validation stepwise regression approach adopted to select the robust predictors. Upper tropospheric zonal wind at 200 hPa over the northeastern Atlantic is finally selected as the best predictor for interannual model. Besides, the next possible candidate `geopotential height at upper troposphere' is taken as the indirect predictor for being a source of energy transportation from core region (northeast Atlantic/western Europe) to the study area. The model performed well for both the training as well as validation period with correlation coefficient of 0.71 and tolerable root mean square errors. Cross-validation of the model has been processed by incorporating JRA-55 data for potential predictors in addition to NCEP and fragmentation of study period to five non-overlapping test samples. Subsequently, to verify the outcome of the model on physical grounds, observational analyses as well as the model simulations are incorporated. It is revealed that originating from the jet exit region through large vorticity gradients, zonally dominating waves may transport energy and momentum to the downstream areas of west-central Asia, that ultimately affect interannual variability of the specific rainfall. It has been detected that both the circumglobal teleconnection and Rossby wave propagation play vital roles in modulating the proposed mechanism.

  14. Comparison and Evolution of Extreme Rainfall-Induced Landslides in Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chunhung WU

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available This study analyzed the characteristics of, and locations prone to, extreme rainfall-induced landslides in three watersheds in Taiwan, as well as the long-term evolution of landslides in the Laonong River watershed (LRW, based on multiannual landslide inventories during 2003–2014. Extreme rainfall-induced landslides were centralized beside sinuous or meandering reaches, especially those with large sediment deposition. Landslide-prone strata during extreme rainfall events were sandstone and siltstone. Large-scale landslides were likely to occur when the maximum 6-h accumulated rainfall exceeded 420 mm. All of the large-scale landslides induced by short-duration and high-intensity rainfall developed from historical small-scale landslides beside the sinuous or meandering reaches or in the source area of rivers. However, most of the large-scale landslides induced by long-duration and high-intensity rainfall were new but were still located beside sinuous or meandering reaches or near the source. The frequency density of landslides under long-duration and high-intensity rainfall was larger by one order than those under short-duration rainfall, and the β values in the landslide frequency density-area analysis ranged from 1.22 to 1.348. The number of downslope landslides was three times larger than those of midslope and upslope landslides. The extreme rainfall-induced landslides occurred in the erosion gullies upstream of the watersheds, whereas those beside rivers were downstream. Analysis of the long-term evolution of landslides in the LRW showed that the geological setting, sinuousness of reaches, and sediment yield volume determined their location and evolution. Small-scale landslides constituted 71.9–96.2% of the total cases from 2003 to 2014, and were more easily induced after Typhoon Morakot (2009. The frequency density of landslides after Morakot was greater by one order than before, with 61% to 68% of total landslides located in the

  15. Forecasting Global Rainfall for Points Using ECMWF's Global Ensemble and Its Applications in Flood Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pillosu, F. M.; Hewson, T.; Mazzetti, C.

    2017-12-01

    Prediction of local extreme rainfall has historically been the remit of nowcasting and high resolution limited area modelling, which represent only limited areas, may not be spatially accurate, give reasonable results only for limited lead times (cost-effective and physically-based statistical post-processing software ("ecPoint-Rainfall, ecPR", operational in 2017) that uses ECMWF Ensemble (ENS) output to deliver global probabilistic rainfall forecasts for points up to day 10. Firstly, ecPR applies a new notion of "remote calibration", which 1) allows us to replicate a multi-centennial training period using only one year of data, and 2) provides forecasts for anywhere in the world. Secondly, the software applies an understanding of how different rainfall generation mechanisms lead to different degrees of sub-grid variability in rainfall totals, and of where biases in the model can be improved upon. A long-term verification has shown that the post-processed rainfall has better reliability and resolution at every lead time if compared with ENS, and for large totals, ecPR outputs have the same skill at day 5 that the raw ENS has at day 1 (ROC area metric). ecPR could be used as input for hydrological models if its probabilistic output is modified accordingly to the inputs requirements for hydrological models. Indeed, ecPR does not provide information on where the highest total is likely to occur inside the gridbox, nor on the spatial distribution of rainfall values nearby. "Scenario forecasts" could be a solution. They are derived from locating the rainfall peak in sensitive positions (e.g. urban areas), and then redistributing the remaining quantities in the gridbox modifying traditional spatial correlation characterization methodologies (e.g. variogram analysis) in order to take account, for instance, of the type of rainfall forecast (stratiform, convective). Such an approach could be a turning point in the field of medium-range global real-time riverine flood

  16. Influence of rainfall spatial variability on rainfall-runoff modelling: Benefit of a simulation approach?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emmanuel, I.; Andrieu, H.; Leblois, E.; Janey, N.; Payrastre, O.

    2015-12-01

    No consensus has yet been reached regarding the influence of rainfall spatial variability on runoff modelling at catchment outlets. To eliminate modelling and measurement errors, in addition to controlling rainfall variability and both the characteristics and hydrological behaviour of catchments, we propose to proceed by simulation. We have developed a simulation chain that combines a stream network model, a rainfall simulator and a distributed hydrological model (with four production functions and a distributed transfer function). Our objective here is to use this simulation chain as a simplified test bed in order to better understand the impact of the spatial variability of rainfall forcing. We applied the chain to contrasted situations involving catchments ranging from a few tens to several hundreds of square km2, thus corresponding to urban and peri-urban catchments for which surface runoff constitutes the dominant process. The results obtained confirm that the proposed simulation approach is helpful to better understand the influence of rainfall spatial variability on the catchment response. We have shown that significant dispersion exists not only between the various simulation scenarios (defined by a rainfall configuration and a catchment configuration), but also within each simulation scenario. These results show that the organisation of rainfall during the study event over the study catchment plays an important role, leading us to examine rainfall variability indexes capable of summarising the influence of rainfall spatial organisation on the catchment response. Thanks to the simulation chain, we have tested the variability indexes of Zoccatelli et al. (2010) and improved them by proposing two other indexes.

  17. Synergistic effects of seasonal rainfall, parasites and demography on fluctuations in springbok body condition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Wendy C.; Versfeld, Wilferd D.; Kilian, J. Werner; Getz, Wayne M.

    2011-01-01

    Summary 1. Seasonality of rainfall can exert a strong influence on animal condition and on host-parasite interactions. The body condition of ruminants fluctuates seasonally in response to changes in energy requirements, foraging patterns and resource availability, and seasonal variation in parasite infections may further alter ruminant body condition. 2. This study disentangles effects of rainfall and gastrointestinal parasite infections on springbok (Antidorcas marsupialis) body condition and determines how these factors vary among demographic groups. 3. Using data from four years and three study areas, we investigated i) the influence of rainfall variation, demographic factors and parasite interactions on parasite prevalence or infection intensity, ii) whether parasitism or rainfall is a more important predictor of springbok body condition and iii) how parasitism and condition vary among study areas along a rainfall gradient. 4. We found that increased parasite intensity is associated with reduced body condition only for adult females. For all other demographic groups, body condition was significantly related to prior rainfall and not to parasitism. Rainfall lagged by two months had a positive effect on body condition. 5. Adult females showed evidence of a “periparturient rise” in parasite intensity, and had higher parasite intensity and lower body condition than adult males after parturition and during early lactation. After juveniles were weaned, adult females had lower parasite intensity than adult males. Sex differences in parasitism and condition may be due to differences between adult females and males in the seasonal timing of reproductive effort and its effects on host immunity, as well as documented sex differences in vulnerability to predation. 6. Our results highlight that parasites and the environment can synergistically affect host populations, but that these interactions might be masked by their interwoven relationships, their differential

  18. Determining the appropriate altitude to improve accuracy in rainfall estimation from radar reflectivity data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lakkham, M.

    2017-10-01

    In present day, rainfall estimation by weather radar is widely used. Meteorologists use various z-r relationships to appropriate rainfall estimation for different study areas which have different factors such as topography, climate, rain pattern, types of clouds, etc. This research aims to determine the appropriate altitude of radar reflectivity (Z-Level) to provide accurate rainfall estimation. This research will use radar reflectivity data (Z) from Omkoi radar station, which is owned by the Department of Royal Rainmaking and Agricultural Aviation (DRRAA). It uses radar reflectivity data from 1.5 to 13.5 kilometers above mean sea level. We convert it to daily rainfall from radar (R) using Omkoi Z-R relationship (Z=92.4R^1.5) and compare the result to daily rainfall measured by rain gauge stations (G) from 82 rain gauge stations of Thai Meteorological Department (TMD), covering areas within radius of Omkoi radar station (180 km) in the northern of Thailand. The study will consider comparing various statistics of rainfall from radar (R) and rainfall from rain gauges (G), such as correlation coefficients, root mean square error (RMSE) and the characteristic distribution of graphs (Scatter Plot). The results show that the radar reflectivity data in altitude 3.5 km above mean sea level are the most suitable to be used to determine the Z-R Relationship. Therefore, determination of Z-R relationship of Omkoi radar station should be based on the radar reflectivity data at altitude 3.5 km above mean sea level.

  19. Downscaling of Global Climate Change Estimates to Regional Scales: An Application to Iberian Rainfall in Wintertime.

    Science.gov (United States)

    von Storch, Hans; Zorita, Eduardo; Cubasch, Ulrich

    1993-06-01

    A statistical strategy to deduct regional-scale features from climate general circulation model (GCM) simulations has been designed and tested. The main idea is to interrelate the characteristic patterns of observed simultaneous variations of regional climate parameters and of large-scale atmospheric flow using the canonical correlation technique.The large-scale North Atlantic sea level pressure (SLP) is related to the regional, variable, winter (DJF) mean Iberian Peninsula rainfall. The skill of the resulting statistical model is shown by reproducing, to a good approximation, the winter mean Iberian rainfall from 1900 to present from the observed North Atlantic mean SLP distributions. It is shown that this observed relationship between these two variables is not well reproduced in the output of a general circulation model (GCM).The implications for Iberian rainfall changes as the response to increasing atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations simulated by two GCM experiments are examined with the proposed statistical model. In an instantaneous `2 C02' doubling experiment, using the simulated change of the mean North Atlantic SLP field to predict Iberian rainfall yields, there is an insignificant increase of area-averaged rainfall of 1 mm/month, with maximum values of 4 mm/month in the northwest of the peninsula. In contrast, for the four GCM grid points representing the Iberian Peninsula, the change is 10 mm/month, with a minimum of 19 mm/month in the southwest. In the second experiment, with the IPCC scenario A ("business as usual") increase Of C02, the statistical-model results partially differ from the directly simulated rainfall changes: in the experimental range of 100 years, the area-averaged rainfall decreases by 7 mm/month (statistical model), and by 9 mm/month (GCM); at the same time the amplitude of the interdecadal variability is quite different.

  20. Analysis of the influence of rainfall variables on urban effluents concentrations and fluxes in wet weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gooré Bi, Eustache; Monette, Frédéric; Gasperi, Johnny

    2015-04-01

    Urban rainfall runoff has been a topic of increasing importance over the past years, a result of both the increase in impervious land area arising from constant urban growth and the effects of climate change on urban drainage. The main goal of the present study is to assess and analyze the correlations between rainfall variables and common indicators of urban water quality, namely event mean concentrations (EMCs) and event fluxes (EFs), in order to identify and explain the impacts of each of the main rainfall variables on the generation process of urban pollutants during wet periods. To perform this analysis, runoff from eight summer rainfall events that resulted in combined sewer overflow (CSO) was sampled simultaneously from two distinct catchment areas in order to quantify discharges at the respective outfalls. Pearson statistical analysis of total suspended solids (TSS), chemical oxygen demand (COD), carbonaceous biochemical oxygen demand at 5 days (CBOD5), total phosphorus (Ptot) and total kedjal nitrogen (N-TKN) showed significant correlations (ρ = 0.05) between dry antecedent time (DAT) and EMCs on one hand, and between total rainfall (TR) and the volume discharged (VD) during EFs, on the other. These results show that individual rainfall variables strongly affect either EMCs or EFs and are good predictors to consider when selecting variables for statistical modeling of urban runoff quality. The results also show that in a combined sewer network, there is a linear relationship between TSS event fluxes and COD, CBOD5, Ptot, and N-TKN event fluxes; this explains 97% of the variability of these pollutants which adsorb onto TSS during wet weather, which therefore act as tracers. Consequently, the technological solution selected for TSS removal will also lead to a reduction of these pollutants. Given the huge volumes involved, urban runoffs contribute substantially to pollutant levels in receiving water bodies, a situation which, in a climate change context, may

  1. Urban flood return period assessment through rainfall-flood response modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Murla, Damian; Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke

    Intense rainfall can often cause severe floods, especially in urbanized areas, where population density or large impermeable areas are found. In this context, floods can generate a direct impact in a social-environmental-economic viewpoint. Traditionally, in design of Urban Drainage Systems (UDS......), correlation between return period (RP) of a given rainfall and RP of its consequent flood has been assumed to be linear (e.g.DS/EN752 (2008)). However, this is not always the case. Complex UDS, where diverse hydraulic infrastructures are often found, increase the heterogeneity of system response, which may...... cause an alteration of the mentioned correlation. Consequently, reliability on future urban planning, design and resilience against floods may be also affected by this misassumption. In this study, an assessment of surface flood RP across rainfall RP has been carried out at Lystrup, a urbanized...

  2. Computational fluid dynamics analysis of space shuttle main propulsion feed line 17-inch disconnect valves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kandula, Max; Pearce, Daniel

    1989-01-01

    A steady incompressible three-dimensional (3-D) viscous flow analysis was conducted for the Space Shuttle Main Propulsion External Tank (ET)/Orbiter (ORB) propellant feed line quick separable 17-inch disconnect flapper valves for liquid oxygen (LO2) and liquid hydrogen (LH2). The main objectives of the analysis were to predict and correlate the hydrodynamic stability of the flappers and pressure drop with available water test data. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) computer codes were procured at no cost from the public domain, and were modified and extended to carry out the disconnect flow analysis. The grid generator codes SVTGD3D and INGRID were obtained. NASA Ames Research Center supplied the flow solution code INS3D, and the color graphics code PLOT3D. A driver routine was developed to automate the grid generation process. Components such as pipes, elbows, and flappers can be generated with simple commands, and flapper angles can be varied easily. The flow solver INS3D code was modified to treat interior flappers, and other interfacing routines were developed, which include a turbulence model, a force/moment routine, a time-step routine, and initial and boundary conditions. In particular, an under-relaxation scheme was implemented to enhance the solution stability. Major physical assumptions and simplifications made in the analysis include the neglect of linkages, slightly reduced flapper diameter, and smooth solid surfaces. A grid size of 54 x 21 x 25 was employed for both the LO2 and LH2 units. Mixing length theory applied to turbulent shear flow in pipes formed the basis for the simple turbulence model. Results of the analysis are presented for LO2 and LH2 disconnects.

  3. New Techniques for Real-Time Stage Forecasting for Tributaries in the Nashville Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charley, W.; Moran, B.; LaRosa, J.

    2011-12-01

    On Saturday, May 1, 2010, heavy rain began falling in the Cumberland River Valley, Tennessee, and continued through the following day. 13.5 inches was measured at Nashville, an unprecedented amount that doubled the previous 2-day record, and exceeded the May monthly total record of 11 inches. Elsewhere in the valley, amounts of over 19 inches were measured. This intensity of rainfall quickly overwhelmed tributaries to the Cumberland in the Nashville area, causing wide-spread and serious flooding. Tractor-trailers and houses were seen floating down Mill Creek, a primary tributary in the south eastern area of Nashville. Twenty-six people died and over 2 billion dollars in damage occurred as a result of the flood. Since that time, several other significant rainfall events have occurred in the area. As a result of the flood, agencies in the Nashville area want better capabilities to forecast stages for the local tributaries. Better stage forecasting will help local agencies close roads, evacuate homes and businesses and similar actions. An interagency group, consisting of Metro Nashville Water Services and Office of Emergency Management, the National Weather Service, the US Geological Survey and the US Army Corps of Engineers, has been established to seek ways to better forecast short-term events in the region. It should be noted that the National Weather Service has the official responsibility of forecasting stages. This paper examines techniques and algorithms that are being developed to meet this need and the practical aspects of integrating them into a usable product that can quickly and accurately forecast stages in the short-time frame of the tributaries. This includes not only the forecasting procedure, but also the procedure to acquire the latest precipitation and stage data to make the forecasts. These procedures are integrated into the program HEC-RTS, the US Army Corps of Engineers Real-Time Simulation program. HEC-RTS is a Java-based integration tool that

  4. Runoff generation in a Mediterranean semi-arid landscape: Thresholds, scale, rainfall and catchment characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ries, Fabian; Schmidt, Sebastian; Sauter, Martin; Lange, Jens

    2016-04-01

    Surface runoff acts as an integrated response of catchment characteristics and hydrological processes. In the Eastern Mediterranean region, a lack of runoff data has hindered a better understanding of runoff generation processes on the catchment scale, despite the importance of surface runoff as a water resource or flood hazard. Our main aim was to identify and explain differences in catchment runoff reactions across a variety of scales. Over a period of five years, we observed runoff in ephemeral streams of seven watersheds with sizes between 3 and 129 km2. Landuse and surface cover types (share of vegetation, bare soil and rock outcrops) were derived from aerial images by objective classification techniques. Using data from a dense rainfall network we analysed the effects of scale, catchment properties and aridity on runoff generation. Thereby we extracted rainfall and corresponding runoff events from our time-series to calculate event based rainfall characteristics and catchment runoff coefficients. Soil moisture observations provided additional information on antecedent moisture conditions, infiltration characteristics and the evolution of saturated areas. In contrast to the prevailing opinion that the proportion of Hortonian overland flow increases with aridity, we found that in our area the largest share (> 95 %) of runoff is generated by saturation excess overland flow in response to long lasting, rainfall events of high amount. This was supported by a strong correlation between event runoff and precipitation totals. Similar rainfall thresholds (50 mm) for runoff generation were observed in all investigated catchments. No scale effects on runoff coefficients were found; instead we identified up to three-fold runoff coefficients in catchments with larger extension of arid areas, higher percentage of rock outcrops and urbanization. Comparing two headwater catchments with noticeable differences in extent of olive orchards, no difference in runoff generation was

  5. Surface Runoff Threshold Responses to Rainfall Intensity, Scale, and Land Use Type, Change and Disturbance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhaskar, A.; Kampf, S. K.; Green, T. R.; Wilson, C.; Wagenbrenner, J.; Erksine, R. H.

    2017-12-01

    The dominance of infiltration-excess (Hortonian) overland flow can be determined by how well a rainfall intensity threshold predicts streamflow response. Areas in which we would expect infiltration-excess overland flow to dominate include urban, bedrock, desert pavement, and lands disturbed by vegetation removal (e.g., after a fire burn or fallow agricultural lands). Using a transferable method of identifying the existence of thresholds, we compare the following sites to investigate their hydrologic responses to 60-minute rainfall intensities: desert pavement sites in Arizona (Walnut Gulch and Yuma Proving Ground), post-fire sites in a forested, mountainous burn area in north-central Colorado (High Park Fire), an area of northeastern Colorado Plains that has transitioned from dryland agriculture to conservation reserve (Drake Farm), and watersheds in suburban Baltimore, Maryland which range from less than 5% to over 50% impervious surface cover. We observed that at desert sites, the necessary threshold of rainfall intensity to produce flow increased with watershed size. In burned watersheds, watershed size did not have a clear effect on rainfall thresholds, but thresholds increased with time after burning, with streamflow no longer exhibiting clear threshold responses after the third year post-fire. At the agricultural site, the frequency of runoff events decreased during the transition from cultivated crops to mixed perennial native grasses. In an area where the natural land cover (forested) would be not dominated by infiltration-excess overland flow, urbanization greatly lowered the rainfall thresholds needed for hydrologic response. This work contributes to building a predictive framework for identifying what naturally-occurring landscapes are dominated by infiltration-excess overland flow, and how land use change could shift the dominance of infiltration-excess overland flow. Characterizing the driving mechanism for streamflow generation will allow better

  6. Characterisation of Seasonal Rainfall for Cropping Schedules ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    El Nino-South Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon occurs in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean and has been noted to account significantly for rainfall variability in many parts of the world, particularly tropical regions. This variability is very important in rainfed crop production and needs to be well understood. Thirty years of ...

  7. Coping with rainfall variability in northern Tanzania

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Trærup, Sara Lærke Meltofte

    2012-01-01

    This chapter explores a potential relationship between rainfall data and household self-reported harvest shocks and local (spatial) variability of harvest shocks and coping strategies based on a survey of 2700 rural households in the Kagera region of northern Tanzania. In addition, correlations...

  8. Weather radar rainfall data in urban hydrology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thorndahl, Søren; Einfalt, Thomas; Willems, Patrick; Ellerbæk Nielsen, Jesper; ten Veldhuis, J.A.E.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Rasmussen, Michael R.; Molnar, Peter

    2017-01-01

    Application of weather radar data in urban hydrological applications has evolved significantly during the past decade as an alternative to traditional rainfall observations with rain gauges. Advances in radar hardware, data processing, numerical models, and emerging fields within urban hydrology

  9. Comparison of radar data versus rainfall data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Espinosa, B; Hromadka, T V; Perez, R

    2015-01-01

    Doppler radar data are increasingly used in rainfall-runoff synthesis studies, perhaps due to radar data availability, among other factors. However, the veracity of the radar data are often a topic of concern. In this paper, three Doppler radar outcomes developed by the United States National Weather Service at three radar sites are examined and compared to actual rain gage data for two separate severe storm events in order to assess accuracy in the published radar estimates of rainfall. Because the subject storms were very intense rainfall events lasting approximately one hour in duration, direct comparisons between the three radar gages themselves can be made, as well as a comparison to rain gage data at a rain gage location subjected to the same storm cells. It is shown that topographic interference with the radar outcomes can be a significant factor leading to differences between radar and rain gage readings, and that care is needed in calibrating radar outcomes using available rain gage data in order to interpolate rainfall estimates between rain gages using the spatial variation observed in the radar readings. The paper establishes and describes•the need for "ground-truthing" of radar data, and•possible errors due to topographic interference.

  10. Spatial variability and rainfall characteristics of Kerala

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    R. Narasimhan (Krishtel eMaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22

    The rain gauge network of Kerala, whose data for. 1950–1990 was used in this study, is shown in fig- ure 2. ... gauge stations and north Kerala has 39 rainfall stations. The details of the stations are given in table 1. ..... pressure systems that move into the Bay of Bengal. (Das 1995). The tapering shape of the peninsula.

  11. Rainfall erosivity in Brazil: A Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    In this paper, we review the erosivity studies conducted in Brazil to verify the quality and representativeness of the results generated and to provide a greater understanding of the rainfall erosivity (R-factor) in Brazil. We searched the ISI Web of Science, Scopus, SciELO, and Google Scholar datab...

  12. Multifractals and the temporal structure of rainfall

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lima, de M.I.P.

    1998-01-01

    Rainfall is a highly non-linear hydrological process that exhibits wide variability over a broad range of time and space scales. The strongly irregular fluctuations of rain are difficult to capture instrumentally and to handle mathematically. The purpose of this work is to contribute to a

  13. Relationship between summer monsoon rainfall and cyclogenesis ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    S; 120. ◦. –160. ◦. E) are useful to predict TNDC during post-monsoon (October–. December) season. The influence of ENSO (El-Nino. Southern Oscillation) and IOD (Indian ... 1984). Following this methodology, the correlations with the first differences (current season minus previous season) in rainfall and TNDC are used in.

  14. Breakpoints in annual rainfall trends in Córdoba, Argentina

    Science.gov (United States)

    de la Casa, Antonio; Nasello, Olga

    2010-03-01

    Long-term rainfall variability in the Province of Córdoba, Argentina is studied. The methodology used was developed by Tomé and Miranda (2004), and the most notable breakpoints in the time series were determined in order to identify sudden transitions from one period to another with a different linear trend sign. All the rain gauges operated by the "Servicio Meteorológico Nacional" (SMN) of Argentina in Córdoba Province, in the period 1930-2006, were analyzed. One of the stations studied, Córdoba Observatorio, has reliable rainfall data since 1873. In this case, the 1925-2006 period and the 1873-2006 period were studied to analyze the influence of series length in terms of the piecewise linear trends produced. Analyzing only one breakpoint in all the series, a trend change is observed from negative to positive in the 1950s in the north area of the region, while in the other areas the opposite change occurs in the 1970s. The residual sum of squares obtained with the partial trend method is compared to that produced by the traditional method. This comparison shows how the multiple trend method enables regional changes to be determined for a given climatological variable.

  15. Temporal rainfall estimation using input data reduction and model inversion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, A. J.; Vrugt, J. A.; Walker, J. P.; Pauwels, V. R. N.

    2016-12-01

    Floods are devastating natural hazards. To provide accurate, precise and timely flood forecasts there is a need to understand the uncertainties associated with temporal rainfall and model parameters. The estimation of temporal rainfall and model parameter distributions from streamflow observations in complex dynamic catchments adds skill to current areal rainfall estimation methods, allows for the uncertainty of rainfall input to be considered when estimating model parameters and provides the ability to estimate rainfall from poorly gauged catchments. Current methods to estimate temporal rainfall distributions from streamflow are unable to adequately explain and invert complex non-linear hydrologic systems. This study uses the Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) to reduce rainfall dimensionality for the catchment of Warwick, Queensland, Australia. The reduction of rainfall to DWT coefficients allows the input rainfall time series to be simultaneously estimated along with model parameters. The estimation process is conducted using multi-chain Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation with the DREAMZS algorithm. The use of a likelihood function that considers both rainfall and streamflow error allows for model parameter and temporal rainfall distributions to be estimated. Estimation of the wavelet approximation coefficients of lower order decomposition structures was able to estimate the most realistic temporal rainfall distributions. These rainfall estimates were all able to simulate streamflow that was superior to the results of a traditional calibration approach. It is shown that the choice of wavelet has a considerable impact on the robustness of the inversion. The results demonstrate that streamflow data contains sufficient information to estimate temporal rainfall and model parameter distributions. The extent and variance of rainfall time series that are able to simulate streamflow that is superior to that simulated by a traditional calibration approach is a

  16. Analysis of the sensitivity to rainfall spatio-temporal variability of an operational urban rainfall-runoff model in a multifractal framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gires, A.; Tchiguirinskaia, I.; Schertzer, D. J.; Lovejoy, S.

    2011-12-01

    In large urban areas, storm water management is a challenge with enlarging impervious areas. Many cities have implemented real time control (RTC) of their urban drainage system to either reduce overflow or limit urban contamination. A basic component of RTC is hydraulic/hydrologic model. In this paper we use the multifractal framework to suggest an innovative way to test the sensitivity of such a model to the spatio-temporal variability of its rainfall input. Indeed the rainfall variability is often neglected in urban context, being considered as a non-relevant issue at the scales involve. Our results show that on the contrary the rainfall variability should be taken into account. Universal multifractals (UM) rely on the concept of multiplicative cascade and are a standard tool to analyze and simulate with a reduced number of parameters geophysical processes that are extremely variable over a wide range of scales. This study is conducted on a 3 400 ha urban area located in Seine-Saint-Denis, in the North of Paris (France). We use the operational semi-distributed model that was calibrated by the local authority (Direction Eau et Assainnissement du 93) that is in charge of urban drainage. The rainfall data comes from the C-Band radar of Trappes operated by Météo-France. The rainfall event of February 9th, 2009 was used. A stochastic ensemble approach was implemented to quantify the uncertainty on discharge associated to the rainfall variability occurring at scales smaller than 1 km x 1 km x 5 min that is usually available with C-band radar networks. An analysis of the quantiles of the simulated peak flow showed that the uncertainty exceeds 20 % for upstream links. To evaluate a potential gain from a direct use of the rainfall data available at the resolution of X-band radar, we performed similar analysis of the rainfall fields of the degraded resolution of 9 km x 9 km x 20 min. The results show a clear decrease in uncertainty when the original resolution of C

  17. Event-based stochastic point rainfall resampling for statistical replication and climate projection of historical rainfall series

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren; Korup Andersen, Aske; Larsen, Anders Badsberg

    2017-01-01

    events. Due to climate change, however, these series are most likely not representative of future rainfall. There is therefore a demand for climate-projected long rainfall series, which can represent a specific region and rainfall pattern as well as fulfil requirements of long rainfall series which...... for the future climate, such as winter and summer precipitation, and representation of extreme events, the resampled historical series are projected to represent rainfall properties in a future climate. Climate-projected rainfall series are simulated by brute force randomization of model parameters, which leads...

  18. Spatial interpolation methods for monthly rainfalls and temperatures in Basilicata

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ferrara A

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Spatial interpolated climatic data on grids are important as input in forest modeling because climate spatial variability has a direct effect on productivity and forest growth. Maps of climatic variables can be obtained by different interpolation methods depending on data quality (number of station, spatial distribution, missed data etc. and topographic and climatic features of study area. In this paper four methods are compared to interpolate monthly rainfall at regional scale: 1 inverse distance weighting (IDW; 2 regularized spline with tension (RST; 3 ordinary kriging (OK; 4 universal kriging (UK. Besides, an approach to generate monthly surfaces of temperatures over regions of complex terrain and with limited number of stations is presented. Daily data were gathered from 1976 to 2006 period and then gaps in the time series were filled in order to obtain monthly mean temperatures and cumulative precipitation. Basic statistics of monthly dataset and analysis of relationship of temperature and precipitation to elevation were performed. A linear relationship was found between temperature and altitude, while no relationship was found between rainfall and elevation. Precipitations were then interpolated without taking into account elevation. Based on root mean squared error for each month the best method was ranked. Results showed that universal kriging (UK is the best method in spatial interpolation of rainfall in study area. Then cross validation was used to compare prediction performance of tree different variogram model (circular, spherical, exponential using UK algorithm in order to produce final maps of monthly precipitations. Before interpolating temperatures were referred to see level using the calculated lapse rate and a digital elevation model (DEM. The result of interpolation with RST was then set to originally elevation with an inverse procedure. To evaluate the quality of interpolated surfaces a comparison between interpolated and

  19. An Atlantic influence on Amazon rainfall

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoon, Jin-Ho [University of Maryland, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, College Park, MD (United States); Zeng, Ning [University of Maryland, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, College Park, MD (United States); University of Maryland, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, College Park, MD (United States)

    2010-02-15

    Rainfall variability over the Amazon basin has often been linked to variations in Pacific sea surface temperature (SST), and in particular, to the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, only a fraction of Amazon rainfall variability can be explained by ENSO. Building upon the recent work of Zeng (Environ Res Lett 3:014002, 2008), here we provide further evidence for an influence on Amazon rainfall from the tropical Atlantic Ocean. The strength of the North Atlantic influence is found to be comparable to the better-known Pacific ENSO connection. The tropical South Atlantic Ocean also shows some influence during the wet-to-dry season transition period. The Atlantic influence is through changes in the north-south divergent circulation and the movement of the ITCZ following warm SST. Therefore, it is strongest in the southern part of the Amazon basin during the Amazon's dry season (July-October). In contrast, the ENSO related teleconnection is through anomalous east-west Walker circulation with largely concentrated in the eastern (lower) Amazon. This ENSO connection is seasonally locked to boreal winter. A complication due to the influence of ENSO on Atlantic SST causes an apparent North Atlantic SST lag of Amazon rainfall. Removing ENSO from North Atlantic SST via linear regression resolves this causality problem in that the residual Atlantic variability correlates well and is in phase with the Amazon rainfall. A strong Atlantic influence during boreal summer and autumn is particularly significant in terms of the impact on the hydro-ecosystem which is most vulnerable during the dry season, as highlighted by the severe 2005 Amazon drought. Such findings have implications for both seasonal-interannual climate prediction and understanding the longer-term changes of the Amazon rainforest. (orig.)

  20. The effects of more extreme rainfall patterns on nitrogen leaching from a field crop system in the upper Midwest, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hess, L.; Hinckley, E. L. S.; Robertson, G. P.; Matson, P. A.

    2016-12-01

    As global surface temperatures rise, the proportion of total rainfall that falls in heavy storm events is increasing in many areas, in particular the US Midwest, a major agricultural region. These changes in rainfall patterns may have consequences for ecosystem nutrient losses, especially from agricultural ecosystems. We conducted a multi-year rainfall manipulation experiment to examine how more extreme rainfall patterns affect nitrogen (N) leaching from row-crop ecosystems in the upper Midwest, and to what extent tillage may moderate these effects. 5x5m rainout shelters were installed in April 2015 to impose control and extreme rainfall patterns in replicated plots under conventional tillage and no-till management at the Kellogg Biological Station LTER site. Plots exposed to the control rainfall treatment received ambient rainfall, and those exposed to the extreme rainfall treatment received the same total amount of water but applied once every 2 weeks, to simulate larger, less frequent storms. N leaching was calculated as the product of measured soil water N concentrations and modeled soil water drainage at 1.2m depth using HYDRUS-1D. Based on data to date, more N has been leached from both tilled and no-till soils exposed to the extreme rainfall treatment compared to the control rainfall treatment. Results thus far suggest that greater soil water drainage is a primary driver of this increase, and changes in within-system nitrogen cycling - such as net N mineralization and crop N uptake - may also play a role. The experiment is ongoing, and our results so far suggest that intensifying precipitation patterns may exacerbate N leaching from agricultural soils, with potentially negative consequences for receiving ground- and surface waters, as well as for farmers.

  1. Groundwater quality in the Mojave area, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawson, Barbara J. Milby; Belitz, Kenneth

    2012-01-01

    Groundwater provides more than 40 percent of California’s drinking water. To protect this vital resource, the State of California created the Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment (GAMA) Program. The Priority Basin Project of the GAMA Program provides a comprehensive assessment of the State’s groundwater quality and increases public access to groundwater-quality information. Four groundwater basins along the Mojave River make up one of the study areas being evaluated. The Mojave study area is approximately 1,500 square miles (3,885 square kilometers) and includes four contiguous groundwater basins: Upper, Middle, and Lower Mojave River Groundwater Basins, and the El Mirage Valley (California Department of Water Resources, 2003). The Mojave study area has an arid climate, and is part of the Mojave Desert. Average annual rainfall is about 6 inches (15 centimeters). Land use in the study area is approximately 82 percent (%) natural (mostly shrubland), 4% agricultural, and 14% urban. The primary crops are pasture and hay. The largest urban areas are the cities of Victorville, Hesperia, and Apple Valley (2010 populations of 116,000, 90,000 and 69,000, respectively). Groundwater in these basins is used for public and domestic water supply and for irrigation. The main water-bearing units are gravel, sand, silt, and clay derived from surrounding mountains. The primary aquifers in the Mojave study area are defined as those parts of the aquifers corresponding to the perforated intervals of wells listed in the California Department of Public Health database. Public-supply wells in the Mojave study area are completed to depths between 200 and 600 feet (18 to 61 meters), consist of solid casing from the land surface to a depth of 130 to 420 feet (40 to 128 meters), and are screened or perforated below the solid casing. Recharge to the groundwater system is primarily runoff from the mountains to the south, mostly through the Mojave River channel. The primary sources

  2. The impact of inter-annual rainfall variability on African savannas changes with mean rainfall.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Synodinos, Alexis D; Tietjen, Britta; Lohmann, Dirk; Jeltsch, Florian

    2018-01-21

    Savannas are mixed tree-grass ecosystems whose dynamics are predominantly regulated by resource competition and the temporal variability in climatic and environmental factors such as rainfall and fire. Hence, increasing inter-annual rainfall variability due to climate change could have a significant impact on savannas. To investigate this, we used an ecohydrological model of stochastic differential equations and simulated African savanna dynamics along a gradient of mean annual rainfall (520-780 mm/year) for a range of inter-annual rainfall variabilities. Our simulations produced alternative states of grassland and savanna across the mean rainfall gradient. Increasing inter-annual variability had a negative effect on the savanna state under dry conditions (520 mm/year), and a positive effect under moister conditions (580-780 mm/year). The former resulted from the net negative effect of dry and wet extremes on trees. In semi-arid conditions (520 mm/year), dry extremes caused a loss of tree cover, which could not be recovered during wet extremes because of strong resource competition and the increased frequency of fires. At high mean rainfall (780 mm/year), increased variability enhanced savanna resilience. Here, resources were no longer limiting and the slow tree dynamics buffered against variability by maintaining a stable population during 'dry' extremes, providing the basis for growth during wet extremes. Simultaneously, high rainfall years had a weak marginal benefit on grass cover due to density-regulation and grazing. Our results suggest that the effects of the slow tree and fast grass dynamics on tree-grass interactions will become a major determinant of the savanna vegetation composition with increasing rainfall variability. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Impact of rainfall pattern on interrill erosion process

    Science.gov (United States)

    The impact of rainfall pattern on the interrill erosion process is not fully understood despite its importance. Systematic rainfall simulation experiments involving different rain intensities, stages, intensity sequences, and surface cover conditions were conducted to investigate the impacts of rain...

  4. Simulation of the Indian summer monsoon onset-phase rainfall using a regional model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. V. Srinivas

    2015-09-01

    northeast, east and west coast areas, the ARW captured these regional features showing improvement upon NNRP reanalysis, which may be due to the high resolution (30 km employed. The onset-phase rainfall characteristics during the contrasting ISM of 2003 and 2009 are well simulated in terms of the variations in the strength of low-level jet (LLJ and outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR.

  5. Modeling Daily Rainfall Conditional on Atmospheric Predictors: An application to Western Greece

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langousis, Andreas; Kaleris, Vassilios

    2013-04-01

    Due to its intermittent and highly variable character, daily precipitation is the least well reproduced hydrologic variable by both General Circulation Models (GCMs) and Limited Area Models (LAMs). To that extent, several statistical procedures (usually referred to as downscaling schemes) have been suggested to generate synthetic rainfall time series conditional on predictor variables that are descriptive of the atmospheric circulation at the mesoscale. In addition to be more accurately simulated by GCMs and LAMs, large-scale atmospheric predictors are important indicators of the local weather. Currently used downscaling methods simulate rainfall series using either stable statistical relationships (usually referred to as transfer functions) between certain characteristics of the rainfall process and mesoscale atmospheric predictor variables, or simple stochastic schemes (e.g. properly transformed autoregressive models) with parameters that depend on the large-scale atmospheric conditions. The latter are determined by classifying large-scale circulation patterns into broad categories of weather states, using empirical or theoretically based classification schemes, and modeled by resampling from those categories; a process usually referred to as weather generation. In this work we propose a statistical framework to generate synthetic rainfall timeseries at a daily level, conditional on large scale atmospheric predictors. The latter include the mean sea level pressure (MSLP), the magnitude and direction of upper level geostrophic winds, and the 500 hPa geopotential height, relative vorticity and divergence. The suggested framework operates in continuous time, avoiding the use of transfer functions, and weather classification schemes. The suggested downscaling approach is validated using atmospheric data from the ERA-Interim archive (see http://www.ecmwf.int/research/era/do/get/index), and daily rainfall data from Western Greece, for the 14-year period from 01 October

  6. Simulation of the Indian summer monsoon onset-phase rainfall using a regional model

    KAUST Repository

    Srinivas, C. V.

    2015-09-11

    west coast areas, the ARW captured these regional features showing improvement upon NNRP reanalysis, which may be due to the high resolution (30 km) employed. The onset-phase rainfall characteristics during the contrasting ISM of 2003 and 2009 are well simulated in terms of the variations in the strength of low-level jet (LLJ) and outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR).

  7. The Amazon forest-rainfall feedback: the roles of transpiration and interception

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dekker, Stefan; Staal, Arie; Tuinenburg, Obbe

    2017-04-01

    In the Amazon, deep-rooted trees increase local transpiration and high tree cover increase local interception evaporation. These increased local evapotranspiration fluxes to the atmosphere have both positive effects on forests down-wind, as they stimulate rainfall. Although important for the functioning of the Amazon, we have an inadequate assessment on the strength and the timing of these forest-rainfall feedbacks. In this study we (i) estimate local forest transpiration and local interception evaporation, (ii) simulate the trajectories of these moisture flows through the atmosphere and (iii) quantify their contributions to the forest-rainfall feedback for the whole Amazon basin. To determine the atmospheric moisture flows in tropical South America we use a Lagrangian moisture tracking algorithm on 0.25° (c. 25 km) resolution with eight atmospheric layers on a monthly basis for the period 2003-2015. With our approach we account for multiple re-evaporation cycles of this moisture. We also calculate for each month the potential effects of forest loss on evapotranspiration. Combined, these calculations allow us to simulate the effects of land-cover changes on rainfall in downwind areas and estimate the effect on the forest. We found large regional and temporal differences in the importance how forest contribute to rainfall. The transpiration-rainfall feedback is highly important during the dry season. Between September-November, when large parts of the Amazon are at the end of the dry season, more than 50% of the rainfall is caused by the forests upstream. This means that droughts in the Amazon are alleviated by the forest. Furthermore, we found that much moisture cycles several times during its trajectory over the Amazon. After one evapotranspiration-rainfall cycle, more than 40% of the moisture is re-evaporated again. The interception-evaporation feedback is less important during droughts. Finally from our analysis, we show that the forest-rainfall feedback is

  8. Rainfall Distributions in Sri Lanka in Time and Space: An Analysis Based on Daily Rainfall Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. P. Burt

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Daily rainfall totals are analyzed for the main agro-climatic zones of Sri Lanka for the period 1976–2006. The emphasis is on daily rainfall rather than on longer-period totals, in particular the number of daily falls exceeding given threshold totals. For one station (Mapalana, where a complete daily series is available from 1950, a longer-term perspective on changes over half a century is provided. The focus here is particularly on rainfall in March and April, given the sensitivity of agricultural decisions to early southwest monsoon rainfall at the beginning of the Yala cultivation season but other seasons are also considered, in particular the northeast monsoon. Rainfall across Sri Lanka over three decades is investigated in relation to the main atmospheric drivers known to affect climate in the region: sea surface temperatures in the Pacific and Indian Oceans, of which the former are shown to be more important. The strong influence of El Niño and La Niña phases on various aspects of the daily rainfall distribution in Sri Lanka is confirmed: positive correlations with Pacific sea-surface temperatures during the north east monsoon and negative correlations at other times. It is emphasized in the discussion that Sri Lanka must be placed in its regional context and it is important to draw on regional-scale research across the Indian subcontinent and the Bay of Bengal.

  9. Bias adjustment of infrared-based rainfall estimation using Passive Microwave satellite rainfall data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karbalaee, Negar; Hsu, Kuolin; Sorooshian, Soroosh; Braithwaite, Dan

    2017-04-01

    This study explores using Passive Microwave (PMW) rainfall estimation for spatial and temporal adjustment of Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Cloud Classification System (PERSIANN-CCS). The PERSIANN-CCS algorithm collects information from infrared images to estimate rainfall. PERSIANN-CCS is one of the algorithms used in the Integrated Multisatellite Retrievals for GPM (Global Precipitation Mission) estimation for the time period PMW rainfall estimations are limited or not available. Continued improvement of PERSIANN-CCS will support Integrated Multisatellite Retrievals for GPM for current as well as retrospective estimations of global precipitation. This study takes advantage of the high spatial and temporal resolution of GEO-based PERSIANN-CCS estimation and the more effective, but lower sample frequency, PMW estimation. The Probability Matching Method (PMM) was used to adjust the rainfall distribution of GEO-based PERSIANN-CCS toward that of PMW rainfall estimation. The results show that a significant improvement of global PERSIANN-CCS rainfall estimation is obtained.

  10. Impact of merging methods on radar based nowcasting of rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shehu, Bora; Haberlandt, Uwe

    2017-04-01

    Radar data with high spatial and temporal resolution are commonly used to track and predict rainfall patterns that serve as input for hydrological applications. To mitigate the high errors associated with the radar, many merging methods employing ground measurements have been developed. However these methods have been investigated mainly for simulation purposes, while for nowcasting they are limited to the application of the mean field bias correction. Therefore this study aims to investigate the impact of different merging methods on the nowcasting of the rainfall volumes regarding urban floods. Radar bias correction based on mean fields and quantile mapping are analyzed individually and also are implemented in conditional merging. Special attention is given to the impact of spatial and temporal filters on the predictive skill of all methods. The relevance of the radar merging techniques is demonstrated by comparing the performance of the forecasted rainfall field from the radar tracking algorithm HyRaTrac for both raw and merged radar data. For this purpose several extreme events are selected and the respective performance is evaluated by cross validation of the continuous criteria (bias and rmse) and categorical criteria (POD, FAR and GSS) for lead times up to 2 hours. The study area is located within the 128 km radius of Hannover radar in Lower Saxony, Germany and the data set constitutes of 80 recording stations in 5 min time steps for the period 2000-2012. The results reveal how the choice of merging method and the implementation of filters impacts the performance of the forecast algorithm.

  11. Trends in Extreme Rainfall Events in Tasmania, Australia

    OpenAIRE

    Orpita U. Laz; Ataur Rahman

    2014-01-01

    Climate change will affect various aspects of hydrological cycle such as rainfall. A change in rainfall will affect flood magnitude and frequency in future which will affect the design and operation of hydraulic structures. In this paper, trends in subhourly, sub-daily, and daily extreme rainfall events from 18 rainfall stations located in Tasmania, Australia are examined. Two nonparametric tests (Mann-Kendall and Spearman’s Rho) are applied to detect trends at 10%, 5%, a...

  12. Investigating changes over time of annual rainfall in Zimbabwe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Mazvimavi

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available There is increasing concern in southern Africa about the possible decline of rainfall as a result of global warming. Some studies concluded that average rainfall in Zimbabwe had declined by 10% or 100 mm during the last 100 years. This paper investigates the validity of the assumption that rainfall is declining in Zimbabwe. Time series of annual rainfall, and total rainfall for (a the early part of the rainy season, October-November-December (OND, and (b the mid to end of the rainy season, January-February-March (JFM are analysed for the presence of trends using the Mann-Kendall test, and for the decline or increase during years with either high or low rainfall using quantile regression analysis. The Pettitt test has also been utilized to examine the possible existence of change or break-points in the rainfall time series. The analysis has been done for 40 rainfall stations with records starting during the 1892–1940 period and ending in 2000, and representative of all the rainfall regions.

    The Mann-Kendal test did not identify a significant trend at all the 40 stations, and therefore there is no proof that the average rainfall at each of these stations has changed. Quantile regression analysis revealed a decline in annual rainfall less than the tenth percentile at only one station, and increasing of rainfall greater than the ninetieth percentile at another station. All the other stations had no changes over time in both the low and high rainfall at the annual interval. Climate change effects are therefore not yet statistically significant within time series of total seasonal and annual rainfall in Zimbabwe. The general perception about declining rainfall is likely due to the presence of multidecadal variability characterized by bunching of years with above (e.g. 1951–1958, 1973–1980 and below (e.g. 1959–1972, 1982–1994 average rainfall.

  13. The added value of stochastic spatial disaggregation for short-term rainfall forecasts currently available in Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gagnon, Patrick; Rousseau, Alain N.; Charron, Dominique; Fortin, Vincent; Audet, René

    2017-11-01

    Several businesses and industries rely on rainfall forecasts to support their day-to-day operations. To deal with the uncertainty associated with rainfall forecast, some meteorological organisations have developed products, such as ensemble forecasts. However, due to the intensive computational requirements of ensemble forecasts, the spatial resolution remains coarse. For example, Environment and Climate Change Canada's (ECCC) Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS) data is freely available on a 1-degree grid (about 100 km), while those of the so-called High Resolution Deterministic Prediction System (HRDPS) are available on a 2.5-km grid (about 40 times finer). Potential users are then left with the option of using either a high-resolution rainfall forecast without uncertainty estimation and/or an ensemble with a spectrum of plausible rainfall values, but at a coarser spatial scale. The objective of this study was to evaluate the added value of coupling the Gibbs Sampling Disaggregation Model (GSDM) with ECCC products to provide accurate, precise and consistent rainfall estimates at a fine spatial resolution (10-km) within a forecast framework (6-h). For 30, 6-h, rainfall events occurring within a 40,000-km2 area (Québec, Canada), results show that, using 100-km aggregated reference rainfall depths as input, statistics of the rainfall fields generated by GSDM were close to those of the 10-km reference field. However, in forecast mode, GSDM outcomes inherit of the ECCC forecast biases, resulting in a poor performance when GEPS data were used as input, mainly due to the inherent rainfall depth distribution of the latter product. Better performance was achieved when the Regional Deterministic Prediction System (RDPS), available on a 10-km grid and aggregated at 100-km, was used as input to GSDM. Nevertheless, most of the analyzed ensemble forecasts were weakly consistent. Some areas of improvement are identified herein.

  14. Statistical determination of rainfall-runoff erosivity indices for single storms in the Chinese Loess Plateau.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mingguo Zheng

    Full Text Available Correlation analysis is popular in erosion- or earth-related studies, however, few studies compare correlations on a basis of statistical testing, which should be conducted to determine the statistical significance of the observed sample difference. This study aims to statistically determine the erosivity index of single storms, which requires comparison of a large number of dependent correlations between rainfall-runoff factors and soil loss, in the Chinese Loess Plateau. Data observed at four gauging stations and five runoff experimental plots were presented. Based on the Meng's tests, which is widely used for comparing correlations between a dependent variable and a set of independent variables, two methods were proposed. The first method removes factors that are poorly correlated with soil loss from consideration in a stepwise way, while the second method performs pairwise comparisons that are adjusted using the Bonferroni correction. Among 12