WorldWideScience

Sample records for inbreeding index predicted

  1. Predicting rates of inbreeding in populations undergoing selection

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Woolliams, J.A.; Bijma, P.

    2000-01-01

    Tractable forms of predicting rates of inbreeding (F) in selected populations with general indices, nonrandom mating, and overlapping generations were developed, with the principal results assuming a period of equilibrium in the selection process. An existing theorem concerning the relationship

  2. On individual-specific prediction of hidden inbreeding depression load.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casellas, J

    2018-02-01

    Inbreeding depression is caused by increased homozygosity in the genome and merges two genetic mechanisms, a higher impact from recessive mutations and the waste of overdominance contributions. It is of major concern for the conservation of endangered populations of plants and animals, as major abnormalities are more frequent in inbred families than in outcrosses. Nevertheless, we lack appropriate analytical methods to estimate the hidden inbreeding depression load (IDL) in the genome of each individual. Here, a new mixed linear model approach has been developed to account for the inbreeding depression-related background of each individual in the pedigree. Within this context, inbred descendants contributed relevant information to predict the IDL contained in the genome of a given ancestor; moreover, known relationships spread these predictions to the remaining individuals in the pedigree, even if not contributing inbred offspring. Results obtained from the analysis of weaning weight in the MARET rabbit population demonstrated that the genetic background of inbreeding depression distributed heterogeneously across individuals and inherited generation by generation. Moreover, this approach was clearly preferred in terms of model fit and complexity when compared with classical approaches to inbreeding depression. This methodology must be viewed as a new tool for a better understanding of inbreeding in domestic and wild populations. © 2017 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  3. Fitness costs predict emotional, moral and attitudinal inbreeding aversion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florence Lespiau

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available In terms of sexual intercourse, the very last people we think about are our kin. Imagining inbreeding intercourse, whether it involves our closest kin or not, induces aversion in most people who invoke inbreeding depression problems or cultural considerations. Research has focused on the disgust felt when facing inbreeding intercourse between close kin but little is known about other responses. In this study, we considered the influence of fitness costs on aversive reactions by including disgust and emotional reaction as well as moral judgment and attitudes towards inbreeding: higher costs should induce a stronger aversive reaction. The fitness costs were manipulated by two factors: (i the degree of the participants’ involvement in the story (themselves, a sib or an unknown individual, and (ii the degree of relatedness between the two inbreeding people (brother/sister, uncle-aunt/niece-nephew, cousin. To test this hypothesis, 140 women read and assessed different inbreeding stories varying in the fitness costs incurred. Findings showed that the higher the fitness costs were, the greater the aversive reaction was in an overall way. First, our results fitted with previous studies that tested the influence of fitness costs on disgust. Second, and more interestingly, findings went further by examining overall aversion, showing that fitness costs could influence emotions felt as well as attitudes and behaviors towards inbreeding people. The higher the fitness costs were, the less inbreeding people were perceived as moral and the more they were considered as a nuisance. However, results regarding avoidance were more nuanced.

  4. Fitness Costs Predict Emotional, Moral, and Attitudinal Inbreeding Aversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lespiau, Florence; Kaminski, Gwenaël

    2016-01-01

    In terms of sexual intercourse, the very last people we think about are our kin. Imagining inbreeding intercourse, whether it involves our closest kin or not, induces aversion in most people who invoke inbreeding depression problems or cultural considerations. Research has focused on the disgust felt when facing inbreeding intercourse between close kin but little is known about other responses. In this study, we considered the influence of fitness costs on aversive reactions by including disgust and emotional reaction as well as moral judgment and attitudes toward inbreeding: higher costs should induce a stronger aversive reaction. The fitness costs were manipulated by two factors: (i) the degree of the participants' involvement in the story (themselves, a sib or an unknown individual), and (ii) the degree of relatedness between the two inbreeding people (brother/sister, uncle-aunt/niece-nephew, cousin). To test this hypothesis, 140 women read and assessed different inbreeding stories varying in the fitness costs incurred. Findings showed that the higher the fitness costs were, the greater the aversive reaction was in an overall way. First, our results fitted with previous studies that tested the influence of fitness costs on disgust. Second, and more interestingly, findings went further by examining overall aversion, showing that fitness costs could influence emotions felt as well as attitudes and behaviors toward inbreeding people. The higher the fitness costs were, the less inbreeding people were perceived as moral and the more they were considered as a nuisance. However, results regarding avoidance were more nuanced.

  5. Seasonal stress drives predictable changes in inbreeding depression in field-tested captive populations of Drosophila melanogaster.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enders, Laramy S; Nunney, Leonard

    2012-09-22

    Recent meta-analyses conducted across a broad range of taxa have demonstrated a strong linear relationship between the change in magnitude of inbreeding depression under stress and stress level, measured as fitness loss in outbred individuals. This suggests that a general underlying response may link stress and inbreeding depression. However, this relationship is based primarily on laboratory data, and it is unknown whether natural environments with multiple stressors and fluctuating stress levels alter how stress affects inbreeding depression. To test whether the same pattern persists in the field, we investigated the effect of seasonal variation on stress level and inbreeding depression in a 3-year field study measuring the productivity of captive populations of inbred and outbred Drosophila melanogaster. We found cold winter temperatures were most stressful and induced the greatest inbreeding depression. Furthermore, these data, collected under natural field conditions, conformed to the same predictive linear relationship seen in Drosophila laboratory studies, with inbreeding depression increasing by 0.17 lethal equivalents for every 10 per cent increase in stress level. Our results suggest that under natural conditions stress level is a primary determinant of the magnitude of inbreeding depression and should be considered when assessing extinction vulnerability in small populations.

  6. Fitness costs predict inbreeding aversion irrespective of self-involvement: support for hypotheses derived from evolutionary theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antfolk, Jan; Lieberman, Debra; Santtila, Pekka

    2012-01-01

    It is expected that in humans, the lowered fitness of inbred offspring has produced a sexual aversion between close relatives. Generally, the strength of this aversion depends on the degree of relatedness between two individuals, with closer relatives inciting greater aversion than more distant relatives. Individuals are also expected to oppose acts of inbreeding that do not include the self, as inbreeding between two individuals posits fitness costs not only to the individuals involved in the sexual act, but also to their biological relatives. Thus, the strength of inbreeding aversion should be predicted by the fitness costs an inbred child posits to a given individual, irrespective of this individual's actual involvement in the sexual act. To test this prediction, we obtained information about the family structures of 663 participants, who reported the number of same-sex siblings, opposite-sex siblings, opposite-sex half siblings and opposite-sex cousins. Each participant was presented with three different types of inbreeding scenarios: 1) Participant descriptions, in which participants themselves were described as having sex with an actual opposite-sex relative (sibling, half sibling, or cousin); 2) Related third-party descriptions, in which participants' actual same-sex siblings were described as having sex with their actual opposite-sex relatives; 3) Unrelated third-party descriptions, in which individuals of the same sex as the participants but unrelated to them were described as having sex with opposite-sex relatives. Participants rated each description on the strength of sexual aversion (i.e., disgust-reaction). We found that unrelated third-party descriptions elicited less disgust than related third-party and participant descriptions. Related third-party and participant descriptions elicited similar levels of disgust suggesting that the strength of inbreeding aversion is predicted by inclusive fitness costs. Further, in the related and unrelated conditions

  7. Fitness costs predict inbreeding aversion irrespective of self-involvement: support for hypotheses derived from evolutionary theory.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Antfolk

    Full Text Available It is expected that in humans, the lowered fitness of inbred offspring has produced a sexual aversion between close relatives. Generally, the strength of this aversion depends on the degree of relatedness between two individuals, with closer relatives inciting greater aversion than more distant relatives. Individuals are also expected to oppose acts of inbreeding that do not include the self, as inbreeding between two individuals posits fitness costs not only to the individuals involved in the sexual act, but also to their biological relatives. Thus, the strength of inbreeding aversion should be predicted by the fitness costs an inbred child posits to a given individual, irrespective of this individual's actual involvement in the sexual act. To test this prediction, we obtained information about the family structures of 663 participants, who reported the number of same-sex siblings, opposite-sex siblings, opposite-sex half siblings and opposite-sex cousins. Each participant was presented with three different types of inbreeding scenarios: 1 Participant descriptions, in which participants themselves were described as having sex with an actual opposite-sex relative (sibling, half sibling, or cousin; 2 Related third-party descriptions, in which participants' actual same-sex siblings were described as having sex with their actual opposite-sex relatives; 3 Unrelated third-party descriptions, in which individuals of the same sex as the participants but unrelated to them were described as having sex with opposite-sex relatives. Participants rated each description on the strength of sexual aversion (i.e., disgust-reaction. We found that unrelated third-party descriptions elicited less disgust than related third-party and participant descriptions. Related third-party and participant descriptions elicited similar levels of disgust suggesting that the strength of inbreeding aversion is predicted by inclusive fitness costs. Further, in the related and

  8. When not to avoid inbreeding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kokko, Hanna; Ots, Indrek

    2006-03-01

    Avoidance of incestuous matings is widely reported across many animal taxa, and the adaptive value of such behavior is explained through inbreeding depression. However, an old and somewhat neglected theoretical result predicts that inbred matings offer another, positive effect on the inclusive fitness of parents: an individual who mates with a relative will help that relative to spread genes identical by descent. This benefit can be substantial, if the additional mating achieved by the relative does not harm his mating success otherwise, and in the context of selfing in plants the phenomenon is well known. Here, we develop a model that derives expected values of inbreeding tolerance, that is, the magnitude of inbreeding depression that is required to make individuals avoid inbreeding, for different animal life histories and parental investment patterns. We also distinguish between simultaneous and sequential mate choice, and show that inbreeding tolerance should often be remarkably high in the latter scenario in particular, although egalitarian parental care will lead to lower tolerance. There is a mismatch between theory and data: the almost complete lack of cases where individuals prefer to mate incestuously is at odds with a large overlap between the predicted range of inbreeding tolerance and estimates of inbreeding depression found in nature. We discuss four different solutions to this enigma, and suggest that inbreeding tolerance, where it is found, should not always be attributed to a simple constraint that has prevented finding any other mate.

  9. Fitness Costs Predict Inbreeding Aversion Irrespective of Self-Involvement: Support for Hypotheses Derived from Evolutionary Theory

    OpenAIRE

    Antfolk, Jan; Lieberman, Debra; Santtila, Pekka

    2012-01-01

    It is expected that in humans, the lowered fitness of inbred offspring has produced a sexual aversion between close relatives. Generally, the strength of this aversion depends on the degree of relatedness between two individuals, with closer relatives inciting greater aversion than more distant relatives. Individuals are also expected to oppose acts of inbreeding that do not include the self, as inbreeding between two individuals posits fitness costs not only to the individuals involved in th...

  10. Heterozygosity predicts clutch and egg size but not plasticity in a house sparrow population with no evidence of inbreeding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wetzel, Daniel P; Stewart, Ian R K; Westneat, David F

    2012-01-01

    We investigated the link between heterozygosity and the reaction norm attributes of reproductive performance in female house sparrows (Passer domesticus). We collected data on clutch size, egg size, hatching success and nestling survival in 2816 nesting attempts made by 791 marked individuals over a 16-year period. Pedigree analysis revealed no evidence of inbreeding. Neither parent-offspring regression nor an animal model revealed significant heritability in clutch or egg size. We selected 42 females that laid at least seven clutches at our study site and used a survey of 21 autosomal microsatellite loci to estimate heterozygosity for each female. We controlled for phenotypic plasticity and found that both clutch and egg size showed significant positive correlations with heterozygosity. We found no evidence that heterozygosity influenced the slope of individual reaction norms. Further analysis suggested that clutch size was affected by heterozygosity across the genome, but egg size had more complex relationships, with evidence favouring the influence of multiple loci. Given the apparent lack of inbreeding and large population size, our results suggest associative overdominance as the likely mechanism for the impact of heterozygosity, but also created a puzzle about the process producing associations between neutral markers and the genes affecting clutch size or egg size. One possible explanation is a long-term residual effect of the historical bottleneck that occurred when house sparrows were introduced into North America. The existence of heterozygosity-fitness correlations in a population with considerable phenotypic plasticity and little inbreeding implies that the effects of heterozygosity may be more significant than previously thought. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  11. The association of genotype-based inbreeding coefficient with a range of physical and psychological human traits.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karin J H Verweij

    Full Text Available Across animal species, offspring of closely related mates exhibit lower fitness, a phenomenon called inbreeding depression. Inbreeding depression in humans is less well understood because mating between close relatives is generally rare and stigmatised, confounding investigation of its effect on fitness-relevant traits. Recently, the availability of high-density genotype data has enabled quantification of variation in distant inbreeding in 'outbred' human populations, but the low variance of inbreeding detected from genetic data in most outbred populations means large samples are required to test effects, and only a few traits have yet been studied. However, it is likely that isolated populations, or those with a small effective population size, have higher variation in inbreeding and therefore require smaller sample sizes to detect inbreeding effects. With a small effective population size and low immigration, Northern Finland is such a population. We make use of a sample of ∼5,500 'unrelated' individuals in the Northern Finnish Birth Cohort 1966 with known genotypes and measured phenotypes across a range of fitness-relevant physical and psychological traits, including birth length and adult height, body mass index (BMI, waist-to-hip ratio, blood pressure, heart rate, grip strength, educational attainment, income, marital status, handedness, health, and schizotypal features. We find significant associations in the predicted direction between individuals' inbreeding coefficient (measured by proportion of the genome in runs of homozygosity and eight of the 18 traits investigated, significantly more than the one or two expected by chance. These results are consistent with inbreeding depression effects on a range of human traits, but further research is needed to replicate and test alternative explanations for these effects.

  12. Revealing gene action for production characteristics by inbreeding ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Revealing gene action for production characteristics by inbreeding, based on a long-term selection ... The gene action involved in the expression of production characters was investigated, using the effect of the theoretical inbreeding ..... and predicted selection responses for growth, fat and lean traits in mice. J. Anim. Sci.

  13. Inbreeding and inbreeding depression in endangered red wolves (Canis rufus).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brzeski, Kristin E; Rabon, David R; Chamberlain, Michael J; Waits, Lisette P; Taylor, Sabrina S

    2014-09-01

    In natural populations, the expression and severity of inbreeding depression can vary widely across taxa. Describing processes that influence the extent of inbreeding and inbreeding depression aid in our understanding of the evolutionary history of mating systems such as cooperative breeding and nonrandom mate selection. Such findings also help shape wildlife conservation theory because inbreeding depression reduces the viability of small populations. We evaluated the extent of inbreeding and inbreeding depression in a small, re-introduced population of red wolves (Canis rufus) in North Carolina. Since red wolves were first re-introduced in 1987, pedigree inbreeding coefficients (f) increased considerably and almost every wild born wolf was inbred (average f = 0.154 and max f = 0.383). The large inbreeding coefficients were due to both background relatedness associated with few founders and numerous close relative matings. Inbreeding depression was most evident for adult body size and generally absent for direct fitness measures such as reproductive success and survival; no lethal equivalents (LE = 0.00) were detected in juvenile survival. The lack of strong inbreeding depression in direct measures of fitness could be due to a founder effect or because there were no outbred individuals for comparison. Our results highlight the variable expression of inbreeding depression across traits and the need to measure a number of different traits when evaluating inbreeding depression in a wild population. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  14. Patterns of mating-system evolution in hermaphroditic animals: correlations among selfing rate, inbreeding depression, and the timing of reproduction.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Escobar, J.S.; Auld, J.R.; Correa, A.C.; Alonso, J.M.; Bony, Y.K.; Coutellec, M.-A.; Koene, J.M.; Pointier, J.-P.; Jarne, P.; David, P.

    2011-01-01

    In hermaphrodites, traits that influence the selfing rate can coevolve with inbreeding depression, leading to the emergence of evolutionary syndromes. Theory predicts a negative correlation between inbreeding depression and selfing rate across species. This prediction has only been examined and

  15. Inbreeding and inbreeding avoidance in wild giant pandas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Yibo; Nie, Yonggang; Wei, Wei; Ma, Tianxiao; Van Horn, Russell; Zheng, Xiaoguang; Swaisgood, Ronald R; Zhou, Zhixin; Zhou, Wenliang; Yan, Li; Zhang, Zejun; Wei, Fuwen

    2017-10-01

    Inbreeding can have negative consequences on population and individual fitness, which could be counteracted by inbreeding avoidance mechanisms. However, the inbreeding risk and inbreeding avoidance mechanisms in endangered species are less studied. The giant panda, a solitary and threatened species, lives in many small populations and suffers from habitat fragmentation, which may aggravate the risk of inbreeding. Here, we performed long-term observations of reproductive behaviour, sampling of mother-cub pairs and large-scale genetic analyses on wild giant pandas. Moderate levels of inbreeding were found in 21.1% of mating pairs, 9.1% of parent pairs and 7.7% of panda cubs, but no high-level inbreeding occurred. More significant levels of inbreeding may be avoided passively by female-biased natal dispersal rather than by breeding dispersal or active relatedness-based mate choice mechanisms. The level of inbreeding in giant pandas is greater than expected for a solitary mammal and thus warrants concern for potential inbreeding depression, particularly in small populations isolated by continuing habitat fragmentation, which will reduce female dispersal and increase the risk of inbreeding. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  16. Inbreeding in genome-wide selection

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Daetwyler, H.D.; Villanueva, B.; Bijma, P.; Woolliams, J.A.

    2007-01-01

    Traditional selection methods, such as sib and best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP) selection, which increased genetic gain by increasing accuracy of evaluation have also led to an increased rate of inbreeding per generation (¿FG). This is not necessarily the case with genome-wide selection, which

  17. Predicting fiber refractive index from a measured preform index profile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiiveri, P.; Koponen, J.; Harra, J.; Novotny, S.; Husu, H.; Ihalainen, H.; Kokki, T.; Aallos, V.; Kimmelma, O.; Paul, J.

    2018-02-01

    When producing fiber lasers and amplifiers, silica glass compositions consisting of three to six different materials are needed. Due to the varying needs of different applications, substantial number of different glass compositions are used in the active fiber structures. Often it is not possible to find material parameters for theoretical models to estimate thermal and mechanical properties of those glass compositions. This makes it challenging to predict accurately fiber core refractive index values, even if the preform index profile is measured. Usually the desired fiber refractive index value is achieved experimentally, which is expensive. To overcome this problem, we analyzed statistically the changes between the measured preform and fiber index values. We searched for correlations that would help to predict the Δn-value change from preform to fiber in a situation where we don't know the values of the glass material parameters that define the change. Our index change models were built using the data collected from preforms and fibers made by the Direct Nanoparticle Deposition (DND) technology.

  18. Prediction of massive bleeding. Shock index and modified shock index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terceros-Almanza, L J; García-Fuentes, C; Bermejo-Aznárez, S; Prieto-Del Portillo, I J; Mudarra-Reche, C; Sáez-de la Fuente, I; Chico-Fernández, M

    2017-12-01

    To determine the predictive value of the Shock Index and Modified Shock Index in patients with massive bleeding due to severe trauma. Retrospective cohort. Severe trauma patient's initial attention at the intensive care unit of a tertiary hospital. Patients older than 14 years that were admitted to the hospital with severe trauma (Injury Severity Score >15) form January 2014 to December 2015. We studied the sensitivity (Se), specificity (Sp), positive and negative predictive value (PV+ and PV-), positive and negative likelihood ratio (LR+ and LR-), ROC curves (Receiver Operating Characteristics) and the area under the same (AUROC) for prediction of massive hemorrhage. 287 patients were included, 76.31% (219) were male, mean age was 43,36 (±17.71) years and ISS was 26 (interquartile range [IQR]: 21-34). The overall frequency of massive bleeding was 8.71% (25). For Shock Index: AUROC was 0.89 (95% confidence intervals [CI] 0.84 to 0.94), with an optimal cutoff at 1.11, Se was 91.3% (95% CI: 73.2 to 97.58) and Sp was 79.69% (95% CI: 74.34 to 84.16). For the Modified Shock Index: AUROC was 0.90 (95% CI: 0.86 to 0.95), with an optimal cutoff at 1.46, Se was 95.65% (95% CI: 79.01 to 99.23) and Sp was 75.78% (95% CI: 70.18 to 80.62). Shock Index and Modified Shock Index are good predictors of massive bleeding and could be easily incorporated to the initial workup of patients with severe trauma. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier España, S.L.U. y SEMICYUC. All rights reserved.

  19. Inbreeding and diseases: demographic, genetic, and epidemiologic perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khlat, M; Khoury, M

    1991-01-01

    The demographic and quantitative genetic aspects of consanguineous marriages are reviewed before epidemiologic principles are applied to the hundreds of studies reviewed, and 3 in particular. Consanguineous unions range from cousin-cousin to more distant relatedness, and their prevalence varies by culture. Prevalence is highest in Arab countries, followed by India, Japan, Brazil and Israel. They are most common in lower educational and socioeconomic groups, the traditionally religious, and the early married, but are declining with modernization. Consanguinity is measured by geneticists by the inbreeding coefficient, the mean consanguinity of a population, and the concept of genetic load. Recessive genes may be deleterious or beneficial if heterozygous in local conditions. Bayesian statistics can predict by the coefficient of increase the probability of disease in offspring as a function of consanguinity and disease characteristics. Inbreeding generally increases prereproductive mortality; crude mortality increases with inbreeding in proportion to the mortality rate. Morbidity increases significantly with inbreeding in many diseases studies in many countries. Epidemiologic studies usually measure inbreeding effects in terms of genetic load, which is not readily translatable into morbidity and mortality. Several methods of computing results of epidemiologic studies are discussed, as well as methodological study design problems. Confounding is the most difficult problem in these studies, because of the difficulty in selecting non-inbred controls. Future inbreeding studies should be interpreted based on both genetic and epidemiologic grounds to illuminate the role of genetic factors and the relevance of inbreeding to disease and public health.

  20. Quantifying inbreeding avoidance through extra-pair reproduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reid, Jane M; Arcese, Peter; Keller, Lukas F; Germain, Ryan R; Duthie, A Bradley; Losdat, Sylvain; Wolak, Matthew E; Nietlisbach, Pirmin

    2015-01-01

    Extra-pair reproduction is widely hypothesized to allow females to avoid inbreeding with related socially paired males. Consequently, numerous field studies have tested the key predictions that extra-pair offspring are less inbred than females' alternative within-pair offspring, and that the probability of extra-pair reproduction increases with a female's relatedness to her socially paired male. However, such studies rarely measure inbreeding or relatedness sufficiently precisely to detect subtle effects, or consider biases stemming from failure to observe inbred offspring that die during early development. Analyses of multigenerational song sparrow (Melospiza melodia) pedigree data showed that most females had opportunity to increase or decrease the coefficient of inbreeding of their offspring through extra-pair reproduction with neighboring males. In practice, observed extra-pair offspring had lower inbreeding coefficients than females' within-pair offspring on average, while the probability of extra-pair reproduction increased substantially with the coefficient of kinship between a female and her socially paired male. However, simulations showed that such effects could simply reflect bias stemming from inbreeding depression in early offspring survival. The null hypothesis that extra-pair reproduction is random with respect to kinship therefore cannot be definitively rejected in song sparrows, and existing general evidence that females avoid inbreeding through extra-pair reproduction requires reevaluation given such biases. © 2014 The Author(s). Evolution © 2014 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

  1. The effect of inbreeding on defence against multiple enemies in Datura stramonium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bello-Bedoy, R; Núñez-Farfán, J

    2011-03-01

    The ability of plants to respond to natural enemies might depend on the availability of genetic variation for the optimal phenotypic expression of defence. Selfing can affect the distribution of genetic variability of plant fitness, resistance and tolerance to herbivores and pathogens. The hypothesis of inbreeding depression influencing plant defence predicts that inbreeding would reduce resistance and tolerance to damage by natural enemies relative to outcrossing. In a field experiment entailing experimentally produced inbred and outcrossed progenies, we assessed the effects of one generation of selfing on Datura stramonium resistance and tolerance to three types of natural enemies, herbivores, weevils and a virus. We also examined the effect of damage on relative growth rate (RGR), flower, fruit, and seed production in inbred and outcrossed plants. Inbreeding significantly reduced plant defence to natural enemies with an increase of 4% in herbivore damage and 8% in viral infection. These results indicate inbreeding depression in total resistance. Herbivory increased 10% inbreeding depression in seed number, but viral damage caused inbred and outcrossed plants to have similar seed production. Inbreeding and outcrossing effects on fitness components were highly variable among families, implying that different types or numbers of recessive deleterious alleles segregate following inbreeding in D. stramonium. Although inbreeding did not equally alter all the interactions, our findings indicate that inbreeding reduced plant defence to herbivores and pathogens in D. stramonium. © 2010 The Authors. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2010 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

  2. Effects of inbreeding on reproductive success, performance, litter size, and survival in captive red wolves (Canis rufus).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rabon, David R; Waddell, William

    2010-01-01

    Captive-breeding programs have been widely used in the conservation of imperiled species, but the effects of inbreeding, frequently expressed in traits related to fitness, are nearly unavoidable in small populations with few founders. Following its planned extirpation in the wild, the endangered red wolf (Canis rufus) was preserved in captivity with just 14 founders. In this study, we evaluated the captive red wolf population for relationships between inbreeding and reproductive performance and fitness. Over 30 years of managed breeding, the level of inbreeding in the captive population has increased, and litter size has declined. Inbreeding levels were lower in sire and dam wolves that reproduced than in those that did not reproduce. However, there was no difference in the inbreeding level of actual litters and predicted litters. Litter size was negatively affected by offspring and paternal levels of inbreeding, but the effect of inbreeding on offspring survival was restricted to a positive influence. There was no apparent relationship between inbreeding and method of rearing offspring. The observable effects of inbreeding in the captive red wolf population currently do not appear to be a limiting factor in the conservation of the red wolf population. Additional studies exploring the extent of the effects of inbreeding will be required as inbreeding levels increase in the captive population.

  3. Academic Inbreeding in the Portuguese Academia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tavares, Orlanda; Cardoso, Sónia; Carvalho, Teresa; Sousa, Sofia Branco; Santiago, Rui

    2015-01-01

    This paper analyses the inbreeding phenomena in Portuguese public universities. Inbreeding is defined as the recruitment of academics by the same institution that awarded their PhDs. Focusing on 1,217 PhD-holding Portuguese academics, belonging to four public universities and to six disciplinary areas, inbreeding is analysed in order to understand…

  4. Inbreeding among pen-reared quail

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nestler, R.B.; Nelson, A.L.

    1945-01-01

    The effect of inbreeding in wildlife species has received attention from several sources. Recently the 'inbreeding theory' as a possible explanation of cycles in game populations was given careful consideration by a group of wildlife experts and geneticists. Scott's symposium (1944) consisting of comments received from eight authorities revealed unanimity in a decision that inbreeding is not the causative factor.

  5. Inbreeding depression in maize populations and its effects on the obtention of promising inbred lines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deoclecio Domingos Garbuglio

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Inbreeding can potentially be used for the development of inbred lines containing alleles of interest, but the genetic causes that control inbreeding depression are not completely known, and there are few studies found in the literature. The present study aimed to obtain estimates of inbreeding depression for eight traits in seven tropical maize populations, analyze the effects of inbreeding over generations and environments, and predict the behavior of inbred lines in future generation S? through linear regression methods. It was found that regardless of the base population used, prediction values could vary when the model was based on only 2 generations of inbreeding due to the environmental component. The influence of the environment in this type of study could be reduced when considering 3 generations of inbreeding, allowing greater precision in predicting the phenotypes of inbred lines. The use of linear regression was effective for inbred line prediction for the different agronomic traits evaluated. The use of 3 levels of inbreeding minimizes the effects of the environmental component in inbred line prediction for grain yield. GO-S was the most promising population for inbred line extraction.

  6. Climate Prediction Center Southern Oscillation Index

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This is one of the CPC?s Monthly Atmospheric and Sea Surface Temperature (SST)Indices. It contains Southern Oscillation Index which is standardized sea level...

  7. Inbreeding in Mimulus guttatus reduces visitation by bumble bee pollinators.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David E Carr

    Full Text Available Inbreeding in plants typically reduces individual fitness but may also alter ecological interactions. This study examined the effect of inbreeding in the mixed-mating annual Mimulus guttatus on visitation by pollinators (Bombus impatiens in greenhouse experiments. Previous studies of M. guttatus have shown that inbreeding reduced corolla size, flower number, and pollen quantity and quality. Using controlled crosses, we produced inbred and outbred families from three different M. guttatus populations. We recorded the plant genotypes that bees visited and the number of flowers probed per visit. In our first experiment, bees were 31% more likely to visit outbred plants than those selfed for one generation and 43% more likely to visit outbred plants than those selfed for two generations. Inbreeding had only a small effect on the number of flowers probed once bees arrived at a genotype. These differences were explained partially by differences in mean floral display and mean flower size, but even when these variables were controlled statistically, the effect of inbreeding remained large and significant. In a second experiment we quantified pollen viability from inbred and self plants. Bees were 37-54% more likely to visit outbred plants, depending on the population, even when controlling for floral display size. Pollen viability proved to be as important as floral display in predicting pollinator visitation in one population, but the overall explanatory power of a multiple regression model was weak. Our data suggested that bees use cues in addition to display size, flower size, and pollen reward quality in their discrimination of inbred plants. Discrimination against inbred plants could have effects on plant fitness and thereby reinforce selection for outcrossing. Inbreeding in plant populations could also reduce resource quality for pollinators, potentially resulting in negative effects on pollinator populations.

  8. Monitoring inbreeding trends and inbreeding depression for economically important traits of Holstein cattle in Iran

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rokouei, M; Torshizi, R Vaez; Shahrbabak, M Moradi

    2010-01-01

    reproductive traits, the observed undesirable effect of inbreeding was not significant, except for the calving interval (0.53 d per 1% increase in inbreeding) in the third parity and age at first calving (0.45 d per 1% increase in inbreeding). Calving ease in heifers and cows was significantly influenced...... scores than animals with low inbreeding coefficients. For type traits, the influence of inbreeding was significant only for stature, chest width, body depth, size, rear udder height, suspensory ligament, udder depth, and front and rear teat placement. Cows with high levels of inbreeding coefficient were...

  9. Predicting Covariance Matrices with Financial Conditions Indexes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A. Opschoor (Anne); D.J.C. van Dijk (Dick); M. van der Wel (Michel)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractWe model the impact of financial conditions on asset market volatility and correlation. We propose extensions of (factor-)GARCH models for volatility and DCC models for correlation that allow for including indexes that measure financial conditions. In our empirical application we

  10. Genetic diversity, inbreeding and cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ujvari, Beata; Klaassen, Marcel; Raven, Nynke; Russell, Tracey; Vittecoq, Marion; Hamede, Rodrigo; Thomas, Frédéric; Madsen, Thomas

    2018-03-28

    Genetic diversity is essential for adaptive capacities, providing organisms with the potential of successfully responding to intrinsic and extrinsic challenges. Although a clear reciprocal link between genetic diversity and resistance to parasites and pathogens has been established across taxa, the impact of loss of genetic diversity by inbreeding on the emergence and progression of non-communicable diseases, such as cancer, has been overlooked. Here we provide an overview of such associations and show that low genetic diversity and inbreeding associate with an increased risk of cancer in both humans and animals. Cancer being a multifaceted disease, loss of genetic diversity can directly (via accumulation of oncogenic homozygous mutations) and indirectly (via increased susceptibility to oncogenic pathogens) impact abnormal cell emergence and escape of immune surveillance. The observed link between reduced genetic diversity and cancer in wildlife may further imperil the long-term survival of numerous endangered species, highlighting the need to consider the impact of cancer in conservation biology. Finally, the somewhat incongruent data originating from human studies suggest that the association between genetic diversity and cancer development is multifactorial and may be tumour specific. Further studies are therefore crucial in order to elucidate the underpinnings of the interactions between genetic diversity, inbreeding and cancer. © 2018 The Author(s).

  11. THE APPLICATION OF RAPD FINGERPRINTING TO ASSESS INBREEDING LEVELS IN THE CULTURED POPULATIONS OF GIANT FRESHWATER PRAWN, Macrobrachium rosenbergii

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Imron Imron

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Inbreeding has been one of central issues with regard to genetic quality of aquaculture species, including giant fresh water prawn (GFP. Conventional methods for the estimation of inbreeding level are available, such as pedigree analyses which requires a good pedigree record which, unfortunately, is rarely available. Likewise, microsatellite molecular markers commonly applied to obtain the coefficient inbreeding estimates are both laborious and expensive. Hence, an alternative method of inbreeding assessment which is relatively easy but reliable is in need. This study was aimed to explore the applicability of RAPD fingerprinting, which is known to be simple and affordable, to estimate inbreeding level of GFP population. Three GFP populations namely inbred, outbred, and farm populations with inbreeding level of 25%, 0%, and unknown, respectively, were genotyped using five polymorphic RAPD primers. The inbreeding levels mentioned within the first two populations were determined using pedigree analysis. RAPD banding patterns were then used to calculate band sharing index (BSI and inbreeding coefficient (F. Assessment of the applicability of inbreeding level estimates obtained by RAPD markers was performed by comparing them to those estimated by pedigree analysis. Results show that RAPD fingerprinting was capable of delineating populations differing in their inbreeding coefficients. The pattern resulted from molecular inbreeding coefficient within the inbred and outbred groups, was congruent with that shown by pedigree analysis, while the farm population showed closeness to the inbred group. While the accuracy of the estimate needs to be verified further, this study suggests that RAPD fingerprinting is applicable to estimate population inbreeding level, particularly due to its technical simplicity and cost affordability.

  12. Rehabilitation after stroke: predictive power of Barthel Index versus a cognitive and a motor index

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Engberg, A; Bentzen, L; Garde, B

    1995-01-01

    The aim of the present study was to investigate the predictive power of ratings of Barthel Index at Day 40 post stroke, compared with and/or combined with simultaneous ratings from a mobility scale (EG motor index) and a rather simple cognitive test scale (CT50). The parameter to be individually...... predicted was the need for special living facilities and support at discharge from a rehabilitation hospital, as well as six months later; 53 stroke patients with age median 68 years were included in this prospective study. It was shown that a combination of Barthel Index and CT50 had a stronger predictive...

  13. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) Index

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Madden Julian Oscillation index (MJO) is a dataset that allows evaluation of the strength and phase of the MJO during the dataset...

  14. Development of an Integrated Moisture Index for predicting species composition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Louis R. Iverson; Charles T. Scott; Martin E. Dale; Anantha Prasad

    1996-01-01

    A geographic information system (GIS) approach was used to develop an Integrated Moisture Index (IMI), which was used to predict species composition for Ohio forests. Several landscape features (a slope-aspect shading index, cumulative flow of water downslope, curvature of the landscape, and the water-holding capacity of the soil) were derived from elevation and soils...

  15. Rehabilitation after stroke: predictive power of Barthel Index versus a cognitive and a motor index

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Engberg, A; Bentzen, L; Garde, B

    1995-01-01

    The aim of the present study was to investigate the predictive power of ratings of Barthel Index at Day 40 post stroke, compared with and/or combined with simultaneous ratings from a mobility scale (EG motor index) and a rather simple cognitive test scale (CT50). The parameter to be individually ...

  16. Cast index in predicting outcome of proximal pediatric forearm fractures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hassaan Qaiser Sheikh

    2015-01-01

    Conclusion: Cast index is useful in predicting redisplacement of manipulated distal forearm fractures. We found that in proximal half forearm fractures it is difficult to achieve a CI of <0.8, but increased CI does not predict loss of position in these fractures. We therefore discourage the use of CI in proximal half forearm fractures.

  17. Research on inbreeding in the 'omic' era

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Torsten N; Pedersen, Kamilla S; Vermeulen, Cornelis J

    2010-01-01

    Developments in molecular and systems biology have enabled novel approaches to be used in the study of inbreeding. Mechanistic and functional studies using ‘omic' technologies can increase the understanding of the consequences of inbreeding, from the level of DNA to that of population growth...

  18. Evidence of inbreeding depression on human height.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruth McQuillan

    Full Text Available Stature is a classical and highly heritable complex trait, with 80%-90% of variation explained by genetic factors. In recent years, genome-wide association studies (GWAS have successfully identified many common additive variants influencing human height; however, little attention has been given to the potential role of recessive genetic effects. Here, we investigated genome-wide recessive effects by an analysis of inbreeding depression on adult height in over 35,000 people from 21 different population samples. We found a highly significant inverse association between height and genome-wide homozygosity, equivalent to a height reduction of up to 3 cm in the offspring of first cousins compared with the offspring of unrelated individuals, an effect which remained after controlling for the effects of socio-economic status, an important confounder (χ(2 = 83.89, df = 1; p = 5.2 × 10(-20. There was, however, a high degree of heterogeneity among populations: whereas the direction of the effect was consistent across most population samples, the effect size differed significantly among populations. It is likely that this reflects true biological heterogeneity: whether or not an effect can be observed will depend on both the variance in homozygosity in the population and the chance inheritance of individual recessive genotypes. These results predict that multiple, rare, recessive variants influence human height. Although this exploratory work focuses on height alone, the methodology developed is generally applicable to heritable quantitative traits (QT, paving the way for an investigation into inbreeding effects, and therefore genetic architecture, on a range of QT of biomedical importance.

  19. A comparison of two methods for prediction of response and rates of inbreeding in selected populations with the results obtained in two selection experiments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Loywyck, V.; Bijma, P.; Pinard-van der Laan, M.H.; Arendonk, van J.A.M.; Verrier, E.

    2005-01-01

    Selection programmes are mainly concerned with increasing genetic gain. However, short-term progress should not be obtained at the expense of the within-population genetic variability. Different prediction models for the evolution within a small population of the genetic mean of a selected trait,

  20. Binaural intelligibility prediction based on the speech transmission index

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wijngaarden, S.J. van; Drullman, R.

    2008-01-01

    Although the speech transmission index STI is a well-accepted and standardized method for objective prediction of speech intelligibility in a wide range of environments and applications, it is essentially a monaural model. Advantages of binaural hearing in speech intelligibility are disregarded. In

  1. Effectively Indexing Uncertain Moving Objects for Predictive Queries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, Meihui; Chen, Su; Jensen, Christian Søndergaard

    2009-01-01

    in more complex and stochastic ways. This paper investigates the possibility of a marriage between moving-object indexing and probabilistic object modelling. Given the distributions of the current locations and velocities of moving objects, we devise an efficient inference method for the prediction...

  2. Prediction of the insulin sensitivity index using Bayesian networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bøttcher, Susanne Gammelgaard; Dethlefsen, Claus

    The insulin sensitivity index () can be used in assessing the risk of developing type 2 diabetes. An intravenous study is used to determine using Bergmans minimal model. However, an intravenous study is time consuming and expensive and therefore not suitable for large scale epidemiological studies....... In this paper we learn the parameters and structure of several Bayesian networks relating measurements from an oral glucose tolerance test to the insulin sensitivity index determined from an intravenous study on the same individuals. The networks can then be used in prediction of from an oral glucose tolerance...

  3. Lymphatic invasion and the Shields index in predicting melanoma metastases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Špirić, Zorica; Erić, Mirela; Eri, Živka

    2017-11-01

    Findings of the prognostic significance of lymphatic invasion are contradictory. To determine an as efficient cutaneous melanoma metastasis predictor as possible, Shields et al. created a new prognostic index. This study aimed to examine whether the lymphatic invasion analysis and the Shields index calculation can be used in predicting lymph node status in patients with cutaneous melanoma. Lymphatic invasion of 100 melanoma specimens was detected by dual immunohistochemistry staining for the lymphatic endothelial marker D2-40 and melanoma cell S-100 protein. The Shields index was calculated as a logarithm by multiplying the melanoma thickness, square of peritumoural lymphatic vessel density and the number "2" for the present lymphatic invasion. No statistically significant difference was observed between lymph node metastatic and nonmetastatic melanomas regarding the lymphatic invasion. Metastatic melanomas showed a significantly higher Shields index value than nonmetastatic melanomas (p = 0.00). Area under the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) proved that the Shields index (AUC = 0.86, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.79-0.93, p = 0.00) was the most accurate predictor of lymph node status, followed by the melanoma thickness (AUC = 0.76, 95% CI 0.67-0.86, p = 0.00) and American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging (AUC = 0.75, 95% CI 0.66-0.85, p = 0.00), while lymphatic invasion was not successful in predicting (AUC = 0.56, 95% CI 0.45-0.67, p = 0.31). The Shields index achieved 81.3% sensitivity and 75% specificity (cut-off mean value). Our findings show that D2-40/S-100 immunohistochemical analysis of lymphatic invasion cannot be used for predicting the lymph node status, while the Shields index calculation predicts disease outcome more accurately than the melanoma thickness and AJCC staging. Copyright © 2017 British Association of Plastic, Reconstructive and Aesthetic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights

  4. AIR POLLUITON INDEX PREDICTION USING MULTIPLE NEURAL NETWORKS

    OpenAIRE

    Zainal Ahmad; Nazira Anisa Rahim; Alireza Bahadori; Jie Zhang

    2017-01-01

    Air quality monitoring and forecasting tools are necessary for the purpose of taking precautionary measures against air pollution, such as reducing the effect of a predicted air pollution peak on the surrounding population and ecosystem. In this study a single Feed-forward Artificial Neural Network (FANN) is shown to be able to predict the Air Pollution Index (API) with a Mean Squared Error (MSE) and coefficient determination, R2, of 0.1856 and 0.7950 respectively. However, due to the non-rob...

  5. Inter-domain linker prediction using amino acid compositional index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shatnawi, Maad; Zaki, Nazar

    2015-04-01

    Protein chains are generally long and consist of multiple domains. Domains are distinct structural units of a protein that can evolve and function independently. The accurate and reliable prediction of protein domain linkers and boundaries is often considered to be the initial step of protein tertiary structure and function predictions. In this paper, we introduce CISA as a method for predicting inter-domain linker regions solely from the amino acid sequence information. The method first computes the amino acid compositional index from the protein sequence dataset of domain-linker segments and the amino acid composition. A preference profile is then generated by calculating the average compositional index values along the amino acid sequence using a sliding window. Finally, the protein sequence is segmented into intervals and a simulated annealing algorithm is employed to enhance the prediction by finding the optimal threshold value for each segment that separates domains from inter-domain linkers. The method was tested on two standard protein datasets and showed considerable improvement over the state-of-the-art domain linker prediction methods. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Predicted impact and evaluation of North Carolina's phosphorus indexing tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Amy M; Osmond, Deanna L; Hodges, Steven C

    2005-01-01

    Increased concern about potential losses of phosphorus (P) from agricultural fields receiving animal waste has resulted in the implementation of new state and federal regulations related to nutrient management. In response to strengthened nutrient management standards that require consideration of P, North Carolina has developed a site-specific P indexing system called the Phosphorus Loss Assessment Tool (PLAT) to predict relative amounts of potential P loss from agricultural fields. The purpose of this study was to apply the PLAT index on farms throughout North Carolina in an attempt to predict the percentage and types of farms that will be forced to change management practices due to implementation of new regulations. Sites from all 100 counties were sampled, with the number of samples taken from each county depending on the proportion of the state's agricultural land that occurs in that county. Results showed that approximately 8% of producers in the state will be required to apply animal waste or inorganic fertilizer on a P rather than nitrogen basis, with the percentage increasing for farmers who apply animal waste (approximately 27%). The PLAT index predicted the greatest amounts of P loss from sites in the Coastal Plain region of North Carolina and from sites receiving poultry waste. Loss of dissolved P through surface runoff tended to be greater than other loss pathways and presents an area of concern as no best management practices (BMPs) currently exist for the reduction of in-field dissolved P. The PLAT index predicted the areas in the state that are known to be disproportionately vulnerable to P loss due to histories of high P applications, high densities of animal units, or soil type and landscapes that are most susceptible to P loss.

  7. Inbreeding depression across a nutritional stress continuum.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schou, M F; Loeschcke, V; Kristensen, T N

    2015-07-01

    Many natural populations experience inbreeding and genetic drift as a consequence of nonrandom mating or low population size. Furthermore, they face environmental challenges that may interact synergistically with deleterious consequences of increased homozygosity and further decrease fitness. Most studies on inbreeding-environment (I-E) interactions use one or two stress levels, whereby the resolution of the possible stress and inbreeding depression interaction is low. Here we produced Drosophila melanogaster replicate populations, maintained at three different population sizes (10, 50 and a control size of 500) for 25 generations. A nutritional stress gradient was imposed on the replicate populations by exposing them to 11 different concentrations of yeast in the developmental medium. We assessed the consequences of nutritional stress by scoring egg-to-adult viability and body mass of emerged flies. We found: (1) unequivocal evidence for I-E interactions in egg-to-adult viability and to a lesser extent in dry body mass, with inbreeding depression being more severe under higher levels of nutritional stress; (2) a steeper increase in inbreeding depression for replicate populations of size 10 with increasing nutritional stress than for replicate populations of size 50; (3) a nonlinear norm of reaction between inbreeding depression and nutritional stress; and (4) a faster increase in number of lethal equivalents in replicate populations of size 10 compared with replicate populations of size 50 with increasing nutritional stress levels. Our data provide novel and strong evidence that deleterious fitness consequences of I-E interactions are more pronounced at higher nutritional stress and at higher inbreeding levels.

  8. Heat capacity prediction of complex molecules by mass connectivity index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Koutchoukali O.

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Heat capacity prediction and estimation methods of solid organic compounds in terms of temperature are limited, particularly concerning complex molecules with functional groups such as active principles and intermediaries used in pharmaceutical field. Recently a correlation between heat capacity at constant pressure (Cp, temperature and a new concept named mass connectivity index (MCI, for ionic liquids, was published [1-3]. In this predictive method, heat capacity can be calculated at different temperatures, if standard heat capacity at 298.15 K is known. The effect of molecular structure on heat capacity is accounted for in this model by the mass connectivity index, a molecular descriptor, which differentiates between compounds. The Valderrama generalized correlation admits, in addition, two universal coefficients, which are obtained from experimental data regression. In the present work, a similar approach is used to predict solid state heat capacity of organics and pharmaceutical products. In order to find model parameters, a database was grouped comprising (104 different compounds and a set of more than 5,791 experimental values of solid state Cps obtained from literature. These collected data were used in multiple linear regression to find model parameters. It was found that the values of predicted heat capacities of compounds non-included in the database were good; they are quite close to the ones presented in the literature. Moreover, this method is simple to use, since only molecular structure of the component and its solid state heat capacity at 298.15 K should be known.

  9. Empirical modelling to predict the refractive index of human blood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yahya, M.; Saghir, M. Z.

    2016-02-01

    Optical techniques used for the measurement of the optical properties of blood are of great interest in clinical diagnostics. Blood analysis is a routine procedure used in medical diagnostics to confirm a patient’s condition. Measuring the optical properties of blood is difficult due to the non-homogenous nature of the blood itself. In addition, there is a lot of variation in the refractive indices reported in the literature. These are the reasons that motivated the researchers to develop a mathematical model that can be used to predict the refractive index of human blood as a function of concentration, temperature and wavelength. The experimental measurements were conducted on mimicking phantom hemoglobin samples using the Abbemat Refractometer. The results analysis revealed a linear relationship between the refractive index and concentration as well as temperature, and a non-linear relationship between refractive index and wavelength. These results are in agreement with those found in the literature. In addition, a new formula was developed based on empirical modelling which suggests that temperature and wavelength coefficients be added to the Barer formula. The verification of this correlation confirmed its ability to determine refractive index and/or blood hematocrit values with appropriate clinical accuracy.

  10. Empirical modelling to predict the refractive index of human blood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yahya, M; Saghir, M Z

    2016-02-21

    Optical techniques used for the measurement of the optical properties of blood are of great interest in clinical diagnostics. Blood analysis is a routine procedure used in medical diagnostics to confirm a patient's condition. Measuring the optical properties of blood is difficult due to the non-homogenous nature of the blood itself. In addition, there is a lot of variation in the refractive indices reported in the literature. These are the reasons that motivated the researchers to develop a mathematical model that can be used to predict the refractive index of human blood as a function of concentration, temperature and wavelength. The experimental measurements were conducted on mimicking phantom hemoglobin samples using the Abbemat Refractometer. The results analysis revealed a linear relationship between the refractive index and concentration as well as temperature, and a non-linear relationship between refractive index and wavelength. These results are in agreement with those found in the literature. In addition, a new formula was developed based on empirical modelling which suggests that temperature and wavelength coefficients be added to the Barer formula. The verification of this correlation confirmed its ability to determine refractive index and/or blood hematocrit values with appropriate clinical accuracy.

  11. Empirical modelling to predict the refractive index of human blood

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yahya, M; Saghir, M Z

    2016-01-01

    Optical techniques used for the measurement of the optical properties of blood are of great interest in clinical diagnostics. Blood analysis is a routine procedure used in medical diagnostics to confirm a patient’s condition. Measuring the optical properties of blood is difficult due to the non-homogenous nature of the blood itself. In addition, there is a lot of variation in the refractive indices reported in the literature. These are the reasons that motivated the researchers to develop a mathematical model that can be used to predict the refractive index of human blood as a function of concentration, temperature and wavelength. The experimental measurements were conducted on mimicking phantom hemoglobin samples using the Abbemat Refractometer. The results analysis revealed a linear relationship between the refractive index and concentration as well as temperature, and a non-linear relationship between refractive index and wavelength. These results are in agreement with those found in the literature. In addition, a new formula was developed based on empirical modelling which suggests that temperature and wavelength coefficients be added to the Barer formula. The verification of this correlation confirmed its ability to determine refractive index and/or blood hematocrit values with appropriate clinical accuracy. (paper)

  12. Prediction of Cerebral Hyperperfusion Syndrome with Velocity Blood Pressure Index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhi-Chao Lai

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Cerebral hyperperfusion syndrome is an important complication of carotid endarterectomy (CEA. An >100% increase in middle cerebral artery velocity (MCAV after CEA is used to predict the cerebral hyperperfusion syndrome (CHS development, but the accuracy is limited. The increase in blood pressure (BP after surgery is a risk factor of CHS, but no study uses it to predict CHS. This study was to create a more precise parameter for prediction of CHS by combined the increase of MCAV and BP after CEA. Methods: Systolic MCAV measured by transcranial Doppler and systematic BP were recorded preoperatively; 30 min postoperatively. The new parameter velocity BP index (VBI was calculated from the postoperative increase ratios of MCAV and BP. The prediction powers of VBI and the increase ratio of MCAV (velocity ratio [VR] were compared for predicting CHS occurrence. Results: Totally, 6/185 cases suffered CHS. The best-fit cut-off point of 2.0 for VBI was identified, which had 83.3% sensitivity, 98.3% specificity, 62.5% positive predictive value and 99.4% negative predictive value for CHS development. This result is significantly better than VR (33.3%, 97.2%, 28.6% and 97.8%. The area under the curve (AUC of receiver operating characteristic: AUC VBI = 0.981, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.949-0.995; AUC VR = 0.935, 95% CI 0.890-0.966, P = 0.02. Conclusions: The new parameter VBI can more accurately predict patients at risk of CHS after CEA. This observation needs to be validated by larger studies.

  13. The predictive content of CBOE crude oil volatility index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Hongtao; Liu, Li; Li, Xiaolei

    2018-02-01

    Volatility forecasting is an important issue in the area of econophysics. The information content of implied volatility for financial return volatility has been well documented in the literature but very few studies focus on oil volatility. In this paper, we show that the CBOE crude oil volatility index (OVX) has predictive ability for spot volatility of WTI and Brent oil returns, from both in-sample and out-of-sample perspectives. Including OVX-based implied volatility in GARCH-type volatility models can improve forecasting accuracy most of time. The predictability from OVX to spot volatility is also found for longer forecasting horizons of 5 days and 20 days. The simple GARCH(1,1) and fractionally integrated GARCH with OVX performs significantly better than the other OVX models and all 6 univariate GARCH-type models without OVX. Robustness test results suggest that OVX provides different information from as short-term interest rate.

  14. Short Communication Inbreeding in the Dohne Merino breed in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    No significant inbreeding depression on body weight and fleece traits could be found. In general the results suggest that inbreeding at present is not a serious problem in the South African Dohne Merino breed. Keywords: Dohne Merino sheep; inbreeding depression. South African Journal of Animal Science Vol.

  15. On the expected relationship between inbreeding, fitness, and extinction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Couvet Denis

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract We assessed the expected relationship between the level and the cost of inbreeding, measured either in terms of fitness, inbreeding depression or probability of extinction. First, we show that the assumption of frequent, slightly deleterious mutations do agree with observations and experiments, on the contrary to the assumption of few, moderately deleterious mutations. For the same inbreeding coefficient, populations can greatly differ in fitness according to the following: (i population size; larger populations show higher fitness (ii the history of population size; in a population that recovers after a bottleneck, higher inbreeding can lead to higher fitness and (iii population demography; population growth rate and carrying capacity determine the relationship between inbreeding and extinction. With regards to the relationship between inbreeding depression and inbreeding coefficient, the population size that minimizes inbreeding depression depends on the level of inbreeding: inbreeding depression can even decrease when population size increases. It is therefore clear that to infer the costs of inbreeding, one must know both the history of inbreeding (e.g. past bottlenecks and population demography.

  16. Assessment of inbreeding depression for functional herd life in the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    p2492989

    in Spanish dairy cattle. From the results of a study with Spanish horses, Gómez et al. (2009) recommended the use of the individual increase in inbreeding coefficient (∆Fi) instead of the individual inbreeding coefficient (Fi) owing to the better fit with data and the special property whereby individual inbreeding coefficients are ...

  17. Countering inbreeding with migration 1. Migration from unrelated ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The eff'ect of migration on inbreeding is moclelled fbr small populations with immigrants from a large unrelated population. Different migration rates and numbers fbr the two sexes are assumed, and a general recursion equation for inbreeding progress derived, which can be shown to lead to an equilibrium inbreeding ...

  18. Inbreeding in stochastic subdivided mating systems: the genetic ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    2016-08-26

    Aug 26, 2016 ... My results indicate that levels of inbreeding in parasites are impacted by demographic and/or transmission dynamics (subdivided mating, aggregated transmission dynamics and host spatial structure), and that this inbreeding is poorly estimated by 'equilibrium' levels of inbreeding calculated assuming ...

  19. An efficient link prediction index for complex military organization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Changjun; Liu, Zhong; Lu, Xin; Xiu, Baoxin; Chen, Qing

    2017-03-01

    Quality of information is crucial for decision-makers to judge the battlefield situations and design the best operation plans, however, real intelligence data are often incomplete and noisy, where missing links prediction methods and spurious links identification algorithms can be applied, if modeling the complex military organization as the complex network where nodes represent functional units and edges denote communication links. Traditional link prediction methods usually work well on homogeneous networks, but few for the heterogeneous ones. And the military network is a typical heterogeneous network, where there are different types of nodes and edges. In this paper, we proposed a combined link prediction index considering both the nodes' types effects and nodes' structural similarities, and demonstrated that it is remarkably superior to all the 25 existing similarity-based methods both in predicting missing links and identifying spurious links in a real military network data; we also investigated the algorithms' robustness under noisy environment, and found the mistaken information is more misleading than incomplete information in military areas, which is different from that in recommendation systems, and our method maintained the best performance under the condition of small noise. Since the real military network intelligence must be carefully checked at first due to its significance, and link prediction methods are just adopted to purify the network with the left latent noise, the method proposed here is applicable in real situations. In the end, as the FINC-E model, here used to describe the complex military organizations, is also suitable to many other social organizations, such as criminal networks, business organizations, etc., thus our method has its prospects in these areas for many tasks, like detecting the underground relationships between terrorists, predicting the potential business markets for decision-makers, and so on.

  20. Inbreeding depression in selfs of redwood

    Science.gov (United States)

    W. J. Libby; B. G. McCutchan; C. I. Millar

    1981-01-01

    Given the polyploid chromosome constitution of Sequoia sempervirens, there was reason to question whether it would exhibit inbreeding depression. Preliminary results from studies of self and related outcross families are reported as a guide to the selection of trees for redwood seed orchards and breeding-orchards. The data indicate that, compared to...

  1. Can bispectral index or auditory evoked potential index predict implicit memory during propofol-induced sedation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yun; Yue, Yun; Sun, Yong-hai; Wu, An-shi

    2006-06-05

    Some patients still suffer from implicit memory of intraoperative events under adequate depth of anaesthesia. The elimination of implicit memory should be a necessary aim of clinical general anaesthesia. However, implicit memory cannot be tested during anaesthesia yet. We propose bispectral index (BIS) and auditory evoked potential index (AEPI), as predictors of implicit memory during anaesthesia. Thirty-six patients were equally divided into 3 groups according to the Observer's Assessment of Alertness/Sedation Score: A, level 3; B, level 2; and C, level 1. Every patient was given the first auditory stimulus before sedation. Then every patient received the second auditory stimulus after the target level of sedation had been reached. BIS and AEPI were monitored before and after the second auditory stimulus presentation. Four hours later, the inclusion test and exclusion test were performed on the ward using process dissociation procedure and the scores of implicit memory estimated. In groups A and B but not C, implicit memory estimates were statistically greater than zero (P memory scores in group A did not differ significantly from those in group B (P > 0.05). Implicit memory scores correlated with BIS and AEPI (P AEPI. The 95% cutoff points of BIS and AEPI for predicting implicit memory are 47 and 28, respectively. Implicit memory does not disappear until the depth of sedation increases to level 1 of OAA/S score. Implicit memory scores correlate well with BIS and AEPI during sedation. BIS is a better index for predicting implicit memory than AEPI during propofol induced sedation.

  2. Extremes of shock index predicts death in trauma patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen R Odom

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Context: We noted a bimodal relationship between mortality and shock index (SI, the ratio of heart rate to systolic blood pressure. Aims: To determine if extremes of SI can predict mortality in trauma patients. Settings and Designs: Retrospective evaluation of adult trauma patients at a tertiary care center from 2000 to 2012 in the United States. Materials and Methods: We examined the SI in trauma patients and determined the adjusted mortality for patients with and without head injuries. Statistical Analysis Used: Descriptive statistics and multivariable logistic regression. Results: SI values demonstrated a U-shaped relationship with mortality. Compared with patients with a SI between 0.5 and 0.7, patients with a SI of 1.3 had an odds ratio of death of 3.1. (95% CI 1.6–5.9. Elevated SI is associated with increased mortality in patients with isolated torso injuries, and is associated with death at both low and high values in patients with head injury. Conclusion: Our data indicate a bimodal relationship between SI and mortality in head injured patients that persists after correction for various co-factors. The distribution of mortality is different between head injured patients and patients without head injuries. Elevated SI predicts death in all trauma patients, but low SI values only predict death in head injured patients.

  3. Risk assessment of inbreeding and outbreeding depression in a captive-breeding program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rollinson, Njal; Keith, Dave M; Houde, Aimee Lee S; Debes, Paul V; McBride, Meghan C; Hutchings, Jeffrey A

    2014-04-01

    Captive-breeding programs can be implemented to preserve the genetic diversity of endangered populations such that the controlled release of captive-bred individuals into the wild may promote recovery. A common difficulty, however, is that programs are founded with limited wild broodstock, and inbreeding can become increasingly difficult to avoid with successive generations in captivity. Program managers must choose between maintaining the genetic purity of populations, at the risk of inbreeding depression, or interbreeding populations, at the risk of outbreeding depression. We evaluate these relative risks in a captive-breeding program for 3 endangered populations of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar). In each of 2 years, we released juvenile F(1) and F(2) interpopulation hybrids, backcrosses, as well as inbred and noninbred within-population crosstypes into 9 wild streams. Juvenile size and survival was quantified in each year. Few crosstype effects were observed, but interestingly, the relative fitness consequences of inbreeding and outbreeding varied from year to year. Temporal variation in environmental quality might have driven some of these annual differences, by exacerbating the importance of maternal effects on juvenile fitness in a year of low environmental quality and by affecting the severity of inbreeding depression differently in different years. Nonetheless, inbreeding was more consistently associated with a negative effect on fitness, whereas the consequences of outbreeding were less predictable. Considering the challenges associated with a sound risk assessment in the wild and given that the effect of inbreeding on fitness is relatively predictable, we suggest that risk can be weighted more strongly in terms of the probable outcome of outbreeding. Factors such as genetic similarities between populations and the number of generations in isolation can sometimes be used to assess outbreeding risk, in lieu of experimentation. © 2014 Society for

  4. Prediction of Massive Transfusion in Trauma Patients with Shock Index, Modified Shock Index, and Age Shock Index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheng-Shyuan Rau

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: The shock index (SI and its derivations, the modified shock index (MSI and the age shock index (Age SI, have been used to identify trauma patients with unstable hemodynamic status. The aim of this study was to evaluate their use in predicting the requirement for massive transfusion (MT in trauma patients upon arrival at the hospital. Participants: A patient receiving transfusion of 10 or more units of packed red blood cells or whole blood within 24 h of arrival at the emergency department was defined as having received MT. Detailed data of 2490 patients hospitalized for trauma between 1 January 2009, and 31 December 2014, who had received blood transfusion within 24 h of arrival at the emergency department, were retrieved from the Trauma Registry System of a level I regional trauma center. These included 99 patients who received MT and 2391 patients who did not. Patients with incomplete registration data were excluded from the study. The two-sided Fisher exact test or Pearson chi-square test were used to compare categorical data. The unpaired Student t-test was used to analyze normally distributed continuous data, and the Mann-Whitney U-test was used to compare non-normally distributed data. Parameters including systolic blood pressure (SBP, heart rate (HR, hemoglobin level (Hb, base deficit (BD, SI, MSI, and Age SI that could provide cut-off points for predicting the patients’ probability of receiving MT were identified by the development of specific receiver operating characteristic (ROC curves. High accuracy was defined as an area under the curve (AUC of more than 0.9, moderate accuracy was defined as an AUC between 0.9 and 0.7, and low accuracy was defined as an AUC less than 0.7. Results: In addition to a significantly higher Injury Severity Score (ISS and worse outcome, the patients requiring MT presented with a significantly higher HR and lower SBP, Hb, and BD, as well as significantly increased SI, MSI, and Age SI. Among

  5. Prediction of Baseflow Index of Catchments using Machine Learning Algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yadav, B.; Hatfield, K.

    2017-12-01

    We present the results of eight machine learning techniques for predicting the baseflow index (BFI) of ungauged basins using a surrogate of catchment scale climate and physiographic data. The tested algorithms include ordinary least squares, ridge regression, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (lasso), elasticnet, support vector machine, gradient boosted regression trees, random forests, and extremely randomized trees. Our work seeks to identify the dominant controls of BFI that can be readily obtained from ancillary geospatial databases and remote sensing measurements, such that the developed techniques can be extended to ungauged catchments. More than 800 gauged catchments spanning the continental United States were selected to develop the general methodology. The BFI calculation was based on the baseflow separated from daily streamflow hydrograph using HYSEP filter. The surrogate catchment attributes were compiled from multiple sources including digital elevation model, soil, landuse, climate data, other publicly available ancillary and geospatial data. 80% catchments were used to train the ML algorithms, and the remaining 20% of the catchments were used as an independent test set to measure the generalization performance of fitted models. A k-fold cross-validation using exhaustive grid search was used to fit the hyperparameters of each model. Initial model development was based on 19 independent variables, but after variable selection and feature ranking, we generated revised sparse models of BFI prediction that are based on only six catchment attributes. These key predictive variables selected after the careful evaluation of bias-variance tradeoff include average catchment elevation, slope, fraction of sand, permeability, temperature, and precipitation. The most promising algorithms exceeding an accuracy score (r-square) of 0.7 on test data include support vector machine, gradient boosted regression trees, random forests, and extremely randomized

  6. Disturbance metrics predict a wetland Vegetation Index of Biotic Integrity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stapanian, Martin A.; Mack, John; Adams, Jean V.; Gara, Brian; Micacchion, Mick

    2013-01-01

    Indices of biological integrity of wetlands based on vascular plants (VIBIs) have been developed in many areas in the USA. Knowledge of the best predictors of VIBIs would enable management agencies to make better decisions regarding mitigation site selection and performance monitoring criteria. We use a novel statistical technique to develop predictive models for an established index of wetland vegetation integrity (Ohio VIBI), using as independent variables 20 indices and metrics of habitat quality, wetland disturbance, and buffer area land use from 149 wetlands in Ohio, USA. For emergent and forest wetlands, predictive models explained 61% and 54% of the variability, respectively, in Ohio VIBI scores. In both cases the most important predictor of Ohio VIBI score was a metric that assessed habitat alteration and development in the wetland. Of secondary importance as a predictor was a metric that assessed microtopography, interspersion, and quality of vegetation communities in the wetland. Metrics and indices assessing disturbance and land use of the buffer area were generally poor predictors of Ohio VIBI scores. Our results suggest that vegetation integrity of emergent and forest wetlands could be most directly enhanced by minimizing substrate and habitat disturbance within the wetland. Such efforts could include reducing or eliminating any practices that disturb the soil profile, such as nutrient enrichment from adjacent farm land, mowing, grazing, or cutting or removing woody plants.

  7. Does haplodiploidy purge inbreeding depression in rotifer populations?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana M Tortajada

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Inbreeding depression is an important evolutionary factor, particularly when new habitats are colonized by few individuals. Then, inbreeding depression by drift could favour the establishment of later immigrants because their hybrid offspring would enjoy higher fitness. Rotifers are the only major zooplanktonic group where information on inbreeding depression is still critically scarce, despite the fact that in cyclical parthenogenetic rotifers males are haploid and could purge deleterious recessive alleles, thereby decreasing inbreeding depression.We studied the effects of inbreeding in two populations of the cyclical parthenogenetic rotifer Brachionus plicatilis. For each population, we compared both the parental fertilization proportion and F1 fitness components from intraclonal (selfed and interclonal (outcrossed crosses. The parental fertilization proportion was similar for both types of crosses, suggesting that there is no mechanism to avoid selfing. In the F1 generation of both populations, we found evidence of inbreeding depression for the fitness components associated with asexual reproduction; whereas inbreeding depression was only found for one of the two sexual reproduction fitness components measured.Our results show that rotifers, like other major zooplanktonic groups, can be affected by inbreeding depression in different stages of their life cycle. These results suggest that haplodiploidy does not purge efficiently deleterious recessive alleles. The inbreeding depression detected here has important implications when a rotifer population is founded and intraclonal crossing is likely to occur. Thus, during the foundation of new populations inbreeding depression may provide opportunities for new immigrants, increasing gene flow between populations, and affecting genetic differentiation.

  8. Oxygenation Saturation Index Predicts Clinical Outcomes in ARDS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DesPrez, Katherine; McNeil, J Brennan; Wang, Chunxue; Bastarache, Julie A; Shaver, Ciara M; Ware, Lorraine B

    2017-12-01

    Traditional measures of ARDS severity such as Pao 2 /Fio 2 may not reliably predict clinical outcomes. The oxygenation index (OI [Fio 2  × mean airway pressure × 100)/Pao 2 ]) may more accurately reflect ARDS severity but requires arterial blood gas measurement. We hypothesized that the oxygenation saturation index (OSI [Fio 2  × mean airway pressure × 100)/oxygen saturation by pulse oximetry (Spo 2 )]) is a reliable noninvasive surrogate for the OI that is associated with hospital mortality and ventilator-free days (VFDs) in patients with ARDS. Critically ill patients enrolled in a prospective cohort study were eligible if they developed ARDS (Berlin criteria) during the first 4 ICU days and had mean airway pressure, Spo 2 /Fio 2 , and Pao 2 /Fio 2 values recorded on the first day of ARDS (N = 329). The highest mean airway pressure and lowest Spo 2 /Fio 2 and Pao 2 /Fio 2 values were used to calculate OI and OSI. The association between OI or OSI and hospital mortality or VFD was analyzed by using logistic regression and linear regression, respectively. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) for mortality was compared among OI, OSI, Spo 2 /Fio 2 , Pao 2 /Fio 2 , and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II scores. OI and OSI were strongly correlated (rho = 0.862; P OSI was independently associated with hospital mortality (OR per 5-point increase in OSI, 1.228 [95% CI, 1.056-1.429]; P = .008). OI and OSI were each associated with a reduction in VFD (OI, P = .023; OSI, P = .005). The AUC for mortality prediction was greatest for Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II scores (AUC, 0.695; P OSI (AUC, 0.602; P = .007). The AUC for OSI was substantially better in patients aged OSI was correlated with the OI. The OSI on the day of ARDS diagnosis was significantly associated with increased mortality and fewer VFDs. The findings suggest that OSI is a reliable surrogate for OI that can noninvasively provide

  9. Hatching asynchrony aggravates inbreeding depression in a songbird (Serinus canaria): an inbreeding-environment interaction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Boer, Raïssa A; Eens, Marcel; Fransen, Erik; Müller, Wendt

    2015-04-01

    Understanding how the intensity of inbreeding depression is influenced by stressful environmental conditions is an important area of enquiry in various fields of biology. In birds, environmental stress during early development is often related to hatching asynchrony; differences in age, and thus size, impose a gradient in conditions ranging from benign (first hatched chick) to harsh (last hatched chick). Here, we compared the effect of hatching order on growth rate in inbred (parents are full siblings) and outbred (parents are unrelated) canary chicks (Serinus canaria). We found that inbreeding depression was more severe under more stressful conditions, being most evident in later hatched chicks. Thus, consideration of inbreeding-environment interactions is of vital importance for our understanding of the biological significance of inbreeding depression and hatching asynchrony. The latter is particularly relevant given that hatching asynchrony is a widespread phenomenon, occurring in many bird species. The exact causes of the observed inbreeding-environment interaction are as yet unknown, but may be related to a decrease in maternal investment in egg contents with laying position (i.e. prehatching environment), or to performance of the chicks during sibling competition and/or their resilience to food shortage (i.e. posthatching environment). © 2015 The Author(s).

  10. Estimating the inbreeding depression on cognitive behavior: a population based study of child cohort.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohd Fareed

    Full Text Available Cognitive ability tests are widely assumed to measure maximal intellectual performance and predictive associations between intelligence quotient (IQ scores and later mental health problems. Very few epidemiologic studies have been done to demonstrate the relationship between familial inbreeding and modest cognitive impairments in children.We aimed to estimate the effect of inbreeding on children's cognitive behavior in comparison with non-inbred children.A cohort of 408 children (6 to 15 years of age was selected from inbred and non-inbred families of five Muslim populations of Jammu region. The Wechsler Intelligence Scales for Children (WISC was used to measure the verbal IQ (VIQ, performance IQ (PIQ and full scale IQ (FSIQ. Family pedigrees were drawn to access the family history and children's inbred status in terms of coefficient of inbreeding (F.We found significant decline in child cognitive abilities due to inbreeding and high frequency of mental retardation among offspring from inbred families. The mean differences (95% C.I. were reported for the VIQ, being -22.00 (-24.82, -19.17, PIQ -26.92 (-29.96, -23.87 and FSIQ -24.47 (-27.35,-21.59 for inbred as compared to non-inbred children (p<0.001 [corrected].The higher risk of being mentally retarded was found to be more obvious among inbred categories corresponding to the degree of inbreeding and the same accounts least for non-inbred children (p<0.0001. We observed an increase in the difference in mean values for VIQ, PIQ and FSIQ with the increase of inbreeding coefficient and these were found to be statistically significant (p<0.05. The regression analysis showed a fitness decline (depression for VIQ (R2 = 0.436, PIQ (R2 = 0.468 and FSIQ (R2 = 0.464 with increasing inbreeding coefficients (p<0.01.Our comprehensive assessment provides the evidence for inbreeding depression on cognitive abilities among children.

  11. Prediction Center (CPC) Tropical/ Northern Hemisphere Teleconnection Pattern Index

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Monthly tabulated index of the Tropical/ Northern Hemisphere teleconnection pattern. The data spans the period 1950 to present. The index is derived from a rotated...

  12. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Scandinavia Teleconnection Pattern Index

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Monthly tabulated index of the Scandinavia teleconnection pattern. The data spans the period 1950 to present. The index is derived from a rotated principal component...

  13. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) East Atlantic Teleconnection Pattern Index

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Monthly tabulated index of the East Atlantic Teleconnection pattern. The data spans the period 1950 to present. The index is derived from a rotated principal...

  14. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) West Pacific Teleconnection Pattern Index

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Monthly tabulated index of the West Pacific (WP) teleconnection pattern. The data spans the period 1950 to present. The index is derived from a rotated principal...

  15. Prediction Center (CPC) Polar Eurasia Teleconnection Pattern Index

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Monthly tabulated index of the Polar-Eurasia teleconnection pattern. The data spans the period 1950 to present. The index is derived from a rotated principal...

  16. EFFECT OF INBREEDING ON MORTALITY OF CAPTIVE TIGER

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sidharth Prasad Mishra

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available A study was carried out on the captive tigers of Nandankanan zoo, Odisha, India, to conclude any deleterious effect of inbreeding on mortality. A pedigree path analysis of 342 tigers was done to estimate the inbreeding coefficient of each tiger from the available pedigree information since the inception of zoological park in 1964. Percentage of animal with different range of inbreeding coefficient was classified based on their normal and white body coat colour. The correlation values between sex, colour and inbreeding coefficient with mortality were also estimated. The colour and inbreeding coefficient was found to be significantly (p<0.05 correlated with the mortality. The inbreeding was found to be significant (p<0.05 with white colour of tiger.

  17. Predicting pavement condition index using international roughness index in Washington DC.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-09-01

    A number of pavement condition indices are used to conduct pavement management assessments, two of which are the : International Roughness Index (IRI) and Pavement Condition Index (PCI). The IRI is typically measured using specialized : equipment tha...

  18. Estimating inbreeding coefficients from NGS data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Garrett Vieira, Filipe Jorge; Fumagalli, Matteo; Albrechtsen, Anders

    2013-01-01

    Most methods for Next-Generation Sequencing (NGS) data analyses incorporate information regarding allele frequencies using the assumption of Hardy-Weinberg Equilibrium (HWE) as a prior. However, many organisms including domesticated, partially selfing or with asexual life cycles show strong......-Maximization (EM) algorithm. We assess the impact of taking inbreeding into account when calling genotypes or estimating the Site Frequency Spectrum (SFS), and demonstrate a marked increase in accuracy on low coverage highly inbred samples. We demonstrate the applicability and efficacy of these methods in both...

  19. Climate Prediction Center (CPC)Oceanic Nino Index

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) is one of the primary indices used to monitor the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The ONI is calculated by averaging sea surface...

  20. Inbreeding and oubreeding effects on pollen fitness and zygote survival in Silene nutans (Caryophyllaceae)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hauser, Thure Pavlo; Siegismund, H.R.

    2000-01-01

    inbreeding depression, oubreeding effects, outcrossing, pollen fitness, selfing, Silene nutans, zygote survival......inbreeding depression, oubreeding effects, outcrossing, pollen fitness, selfing, Silene nutans, zygote survival...

  1. Prediction of the insulin sensitivity index using Bayesian networks

    OpenAIRE

    Bøttcher, Susanne Gammelgaard; Dethlefsen, Claus

    2006-01-01

    The insulin sensitivity index () can be used in assessing the risk of developing type 2 diabetes. An intravenous study is used to determine using Bergmans minimal model. However, an intravenous study is time consuming and expensive and therefore not suitable for large scale epidemiological studies. In this paper we learn the parameters and structure of several Bayesian networks relating measurements from an oral glucose tolerance test to the insulin sensitivity index determined from an intrav...

  2. Short communication: Analysis of inbreeding of the South African ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In South Africa, the Dairy Swiss breed, which originated in Switzerland, consists of 27 breeders and 1135 breeding cows. Pedigree information on the breed was analysed to determine its effective population size (Ne) and rate of inbreeding. The rate of inbreeding was 0.08% per year and 0.38% per generation.

  3. Short communication Analysis of inbreeding of the South African ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2013-03-09

    Mar 9, 2013 ... Abstract. In South Africa, the Dairy Swiss breed, which originated in Switzerland, consists of 27 breeders and. 1135 breeding cows. Pedigree information on the breed was analysed to determine its effective population size (Ne) and rate of inbreeding. The rate of inbreeding was 0.08% per year and 0.38% ...

  4. Genomic dissection of inbreeding depression: a gate to new opportunities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ino Curik

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Inbreeding depression, reduction in performance of quantitative traits, including reproduction and survival, caused by inbreeding, is a well-known phenomenon observed in almost all experimental, domesticated, and natural populations. In spite of its importance to the fate of a small population and numerous research performed in the last century, the genetic basis of inbreeding depression is still unclear. Recent fast development of molecular techniques has enabled estimation of a genomic inbreeding coefficient (FROH, which reflects realized autozygosity and can be further partitioned to chromosomes and chromosomal segments. In this review, we first describe classical approach used in the estimation of inbreeding in livestock populations, followed by early concepts of replacing pedigree inbreeding coefficient by individual heterozygosity. Then, we explain runs of homozygosity as key approach in estimating realized autozygosity. Furthermore, we present two different concepts of analysing regions that substantially contribute to the inbreeding depression. Thus, we describe how to identify or map mutations that result in the reduction of performance and, in terms of quantitative genetics, how to analyse the architecture of inbreeding depression. At the end, we discuss future perspectives in eliminating deleterious mutations from livestock populations.

  5. Inbreeding in the Seychelles warbler: environment-dependent maternal effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, David S; Komdeur, Jan; Burke, Terry

    2004-09-01

    The deleterious effects of inbreeding can be substantial in wild populations and mechanisms to avoid such matings have evolved in many organisms. In situations where social mate choice is restricted, extrapair paternity may be a strategy used by females to avoid inbreeding and increase offspring heterozygosity. In the cooperatively breeding Seychelles warbler, Acrocephalus sechellensis, neither social nor extrapair mate choice was used to avoid inbreeding facultatively, and close inbreeding occurred in approximately 5% of matings. However, a higher frequency of extra-group paternity may be selected for in female subordinates because this did reduce the frequency of mating between close relatives. Inbreeding resulted in reduced individual heterozygosity, which, against expectation, had an almost significant (P = 0.052), positive effect on survival. Conversely, low heterozygosity in the genetic mother was linked to reduced offspring survival, and the magnitude of this intergenerational inbreeding depression effect was environment-dependent. Because we controlled for genetic effects and most environmental effects (through the experimental cross-fostering of nestlings), we conclude that the reduced survival was a result of maternal effects. Our results show that inbreeding can have complicated effects even within a genetic bottlenecked population where the "purging" of recessive alleles is expected to reduce the effects of inbreeding depression.

  6. Inbreeding in the Elsenburg Dormer sheep stud | van Wyk | South ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Data of the Elsenburg Dormer sheep stud which was kept closed since its inception, were collected over a period of 50 years (1941-1990). These data were analysed to monitor the increase in actual level of inbreeding and to investigate the effect of inbreeding on some early growth and reproduction traits. In total, 9 551 ...

  7. Countering inbreeding with migration 2. Migration from related ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    of migration rates is judged by the maximum difference ( 1 - k) in inbreeding between a subpopulation, of size N, and a con- ceptual aggregate random ... inbreeding coefficient of a subpopulation (single island) with migration from a very large noninbred population, ll(4M + l). ...... WH Freeman and Company, New York.

  8. Inbreeding and sex: canalization, plasticity and sexual selection

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Unknown

    interaction of environment and inbreeding depression. (Bijlsma et al. 1999; Dahlgaard and Hoffmann 2000), and the effect of inbreeding on genetic and phenotypic variance (Lopez-Fanjul and Villaverde 1989; Fowler and. Whitlock 1999), have been under renewed examination. Parallel to this has been a renewed interest ...

  9. Presence of inbreeding during a selection experiment with Merino ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    192 individual inbreeding coefficients on natural and artificial selection cannot be ruled out. The effect of inbreeding on production and reproduction traits in Merino sheep has been the subject of many studies and reviews (Morley, 1954; Doney,. 1957; Lax & Brown, 1967; Turner & Young, 1969; Dolling,. 1970' Lamberson ...

  10. Assessment of inbreeding depression for functional herd life in the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The objective of this study was to investigate the effect of inbreeding depression on functional herd life in the South African Jersey population based on individual level and rate of inbreeding. A pedigree file of the South African Jersey breed (n = 912 638) was obtained from the Integrated Registration and Genetic ...

  11. Microsatellite-based estimation of inbreeding level in sheep ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In sheep populations with small effective population sizes (Ne), inbreeding is a major concern because genetic variation has to be maintained. A panel of 28 microsatellite markers was used to measure the inbreeding level in three separate Merino flocks bred for superfine wool (CR), low parasite resistance (LR) or high ...

  12. Inbreeding and the evolution of sociality in arthropods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tabadkani, Seyed Mohammad; Nozari, Jamasb; Lihoreau, Mathieu

    2012-10-01

    Animals have evolved strategies to optimally balance costs and benefits of inbreeding. In social species, these adaptations can have a considerable impact on the structure, the organization, and the functioning of groups. Here, we consider how selection for inbreeding avoidance fashions the social behavior of arthropods, a phylum exhibiting an unparalleled richness of social lifestyles. We first examine life histories and parental investment patterns determining whether individuals should actively avoid or prefer inbreeding. Next, we illustrate the diversity of inbreeding avoidance mechanisms in arthropods, from the dispersal of individuals to the rejection of kin during mate choice and the production of unisexual broods by females. Then, we address the particular case of haplodiploid insects. Finally, we discuss how inbreeding may drive and shape the evolution of arthropods societies along two theoretical pathways.

  13. Nature and magnitude of genetic variability, heterosis and inbreeding depression in Amaranthus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pandey R.M.

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Combining ability, heterosis and inbreeding depression were estimated in grain amaranths for ten characters. Non-additive genetic variance was predominant for majority of characters in both F1 and F2 generations. The parent AG-21 was good general combiner for yield/plant also showed high GCA effects for panicles/plant and harvest index in both F1 and F2 generations. Seven characters, the best F2s on the basis of SCA involves one parent with high GCA effect and the other with poor or average GCA effects. The hybrids which exhibited highest heterosis also showed high inbreeding depression. Heterosis over better parent was highest for economic grain yield (145.047%, followed by panicles/plant (113.675%, panicle length (33.656% and grain weight/panicle (23.566%.

  14. Predicting volatility and correlations with Financial Conditions Indexes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Opschoor, A.; van Dijk, D.; van der Wel, M.

    2014-01-01

    We model the impact of financial conditions on asset market volatilities and correlations. We extend the Spline-GARCH model for volatility and DCC model for correlation to allow for inclusion of indexes that measure financial conditions. In our empirical application we consider daily stock returns

  15. Predicting Volatility and Correlations with Financial Conditions Indexes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A. Opschoor (Anne); D.J.C. van Dijk (Dick); M. van der Wel (Michel)

    2014-01-01

    textabstractWe model the impact of financial conditions on asset market volatilities and correlations. We extend the Spline-GARCH model for volatility and DCC model for correlation to allow for inclusion of indexes that measure financial conditions. In our empirical application we consider daily

  16. Linking inbreeding effects in captive populations with fitness in the wild: Release of replicated Drosophila melanogaster lines under different temperatures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Torsten Nygård; Loeschcke, Volker; Hoffmann, Ary A.

    2008-01-01

    Inbreeding effects have been detected in captive populations of threatened species, but the extent to which these effects translate into fitness under field conditions is mostly unknown. We address this issue by comparing the performance of replicated noninbred and inbred Drosophila lines under...... conditions and involve traits not easily measured under laboratory conditions. More generally, inbreeding effects measured in captive populations may not necessarily predict their field performance, and programs to purge captive populations of deleterious alleles may not necessarily lead to fitness benefits...

  17. Estimating relatedness and inbreeding using molecular markers and pedigrees: the effect of demographic history.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, S P; Simmons, L W; Kennington, W J

    2013-12-01

    Estimates of inbreeding and relatedness are commonly calculated using molecular markers, although the accuracy of such estimates has been questioned. As a further complication, in many situations, such estimates are required in populations with reduced genetic diversity, which is likely to affect their accuracy. We investigated the correlation between microsatellite- and pedigree-based coefficients of inbreeding and relatedness in laboratory populations of Drosophila melanogaster that had passed through bottlenecks to manipulate their genetic diversity. We also used simulations to predict expected correlations between marker- and pedigree-based estimates and to investigate the influence of linkage between loci and null alleles. Our empirical data showed lower correlations between marker- and pedigree-based estimates in our control (nonbottleneck) population than were predicted by our simulations or those found in similar studies. Correlations were weaker in bottleneck populations, confirming that extreme reductions in diversity can compromise the ability of molecular estimates to detect recent inbreeding events. However, this result was highly dependent on the strength of the bottleneck and we did not observe or predict any reduction in correlations in our population that went through a relatively severe bottleneck of N = 10 for one generation. Our results are therefore encouraging, as molecular estimates appeared robust to quite severe reductions in genetic diversity. It should also be remembered that pedigree-based estimates may not capture realized identity-by-decent and that marker-based estimates may actually be more useful in certain situations. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  18. Mutual mate choice: when it pays both sexes to avoid inbreeding.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mathieu Lihoreau

    Full Text Available Theoretical models of sexual selection predict that both males and females of many species should benefit by selecting their mating partners. However, empirical evidence testing and validating this prediction is scarce. In particular, whereas inbreeding avoidance is expected to induce sexual conflicts, in some cases both partners could benefit by acting in concert and exerting mutual mate choice for non-assortative pairings. We tested this prediction with the gregarious cockroach Blattella germanica (L.. We demonstrated that males and females base their mate choice on different criteria and that choice occurs at different steps during the mating sequence. Males assess their relatedness to females through antennal contacts before deciding to court preferentially non-siblings. Conversely, females biased their choice towards the most vigorously courting males that happened to be non-siblings. This study is the first to demonstrate mutual mate choice leading to close inbreeding avoidance. The fact that outbred pairs were more fertile than inbred pairs strongly supports the adaptive value of this mating system, which includes no "best phenotype" as the quality of two mating partners is primarily linked to their relatedness. We discuss the implications of our results in the light of inbreeding conflict models.

  19. Genetically Predicted Body Mass Index and Breast Cancer Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Guo, Yan; Warren Andersen, Shaneda; Shu, Xiao-Ou

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Observational epidemiological studies have shown that high body mass index (BMI) is associated with a reduced risk of breast cancer in premenopausal women but an increased risk in postmenopausal women. It is unclear whether this association is mediated through shared genetic or enviro...... for this discrepancy may reveal insights into the complex relationship of genetic determinants of body weight in the etiology of breast cancer....

  20. Prediction of monthly average global solar radiation based on statistical distribution of clearness index

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ayodele, T.R.; Ogunjuyigbe, A.S.O.

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, probability distribution of clearness index is proposed for the prediction of global solar radiation. First, the clearness index is obtained from the past data of global solar radiation, then, the parameters of the appropriate distribution that best fit the clearness index are determined. The global solar radiation is thereafter predicted from the clearness index using inverse transformation of the cumulative distribution function. To validate the proposed method, eight years global solar radiation data (2000–2007) of Ibadan, Nigeria are used to determine the parameters of appropriate probability distribution for clearness index. The calculated parameters are then used to predict the future monthly average global solar radiation for the following year (2008). The predicted values are compared with the measured values using four statistical tests: the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), MAE (Mean Absolute Error), MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) and the coefficient of determination (R 2 ). The proposed method is also compared to the existing regression models. The results show that logistic distribution provides the best fit for clearness index of Ibadan and the proposed method is effective in predicting the monthly average global solar radiation with overall RMSE of 0.383 MJ/m 2 /day, MAE of 0.295 MJ/m 2 /day, MAPE of 2% and R 2 of 0.967. - Highlights: • Distribution of clearnes index is proposed for prediction of global solar radiation. • The clearness index is obtained from the past data of global solar radiation. • The parameters of distribution that best fit the clearness index are determined. • Solar radiation is predicted from the clearness index using inverse transformation. • The method is effective in predicting the monthly average global solar radiation.

  1. The "unguarded-X" and the genetic architecture of lifespan: Inbreeding results in a potentially maladaptive sex-specific reduction of female lifespan in Drosophila melanogaster.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sultanova, Zahida; Andic, Muhammed; Carazo, Pau

    2018-03-01

    Sex differences in ageing and lifespan are ubiquitous in nature. The "unguarded-X" hypothesis (UXh) suggests they may be partly due to the expression of recessive mutations in the hemizygous sex chromosomes of the heterogametic sex, which could help explain sex-specific ageing in a broad array of taxa. A prediction central to the UX hypothesis is that inbreeding will decrease the lifespan of the homogametic sex more than the heterogametic sex, because only in the former does inbreeding increase the expression of recessive deleterious mutations. In this study, we test this prediction by examining the effects of inbreeding on the lifespan and fitness of male and female Drosophila melanogaster across different social environments. We found that, across social environments, inbreeding resulted in a greater reduction of female than male lifespan, and that inbreeding effects on fitness did not seem to counterbalance sex-specific effects on lifespan, suggesting the former are maladaptative. Inter- and intra-sexual correlation analyses also allowed us to identify evidence of an underlying joint genetic architecture for inbreeding effects on lifespan. We discuss these results in light of the UXh and other alternative explanations, and suggest that more attention should be paid to the possibility that the "unguarded-X" may play an important role in the evolution of sex-specific lifespan. © 2018 The Author(s). Evolution © 2018 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

  2. Pulmonary function vascular index predicts prognosis in idiopathic interstitial pneumonia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Corte, Tamera J.; Wort, Stephen J.; MacDonald, Peter S.; Edey, Anthony; Hansell, David M.; Renzoni, Elisabetta; Maher, Toby M.; Nicholson, Andrew G.; Bandula, Steven; Bresser, Paul; Wells, Athol U.

    2012-01-01

    Background and objective: Pulmonary hypertension (PH) is associated with increased mortality in fibrotic idiopathic interstitial pneumonia (IIP). We hypothesize that baseline KCO (diffusing capacity of carbon monoxide/alveolar volume) and 6-month decline in KCO reflect PH, thus predicting mortality

  3. Prediction of Outcome Using the Mannheim peritonitis Index in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: Successful management of peritonitis has, for decades, presented a challenge to surgeons despite advancements in medicine. This led to the development of disease severity grading systems that would aid in stratifying patients by individual risk factors and hence appropriately predict possible outcome.

  4. Predicting the Direction of Stock Market Index Movement Using an Optimized Artificial Neural Network Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiu, Mingyue; Song, Yu

    2016-01-01

    In the business sector, it has always been a difficult task to predict the exact daily price of the stock market index; hence, there is a great deal of research being conducted regarding the prediction of the direction of stock price index movement. Many factors such as political events, general economic conditions, and traders' expectations may have an influence on the stock market index. There are numerous research studies that use similar indicators to forecast the direction of the stock market index. In this study, we compare two basic types of input variables to predict the direction of the daily stock market index. The main contribution of this study is the ability to predict the direction of the next day's price of the Japanese stock market index by using an optimized artificial neural network (ANN) model. To improve the prediction accuracy of the trend of the stock market index in the future, we optimize the ANN model using genetic algorithms (GA). We demonstrate and verify the predictability of stock price direction by using the hybrid GA-ANN model and then compare the performance with prior studies. Empirical results show that the Type 2 input variables can generate a higher forecast accuracy and that it is possible to enhance the performance of the optimized ANN model by selecting input variables appropriately.

  5. Predictability of the monthly North Atlantic Oscillation index based on fractal analyses and dynamic system theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez, M. D.; Lana, X.; Burgueño, A.; Serra, C.

    2010-03-01

    The predictability of the monthly North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO, index is analysed from the point of view of different fractal concepts and dynamic system theory such as lacunarity, rescaled analysis (Hurst exponent) and reconstruction theorem (embedding and correlation dimensions, Kolmogorov entropy and Lyapunov exponents). The main results point out evident signs of randomness and the necessity of stochastic models to represent time evolution of the NAO index. The results also show that the monthly NAO index behaves as a white-noise Gaussian process. The high minimum number of nonlinear equations needed to describe the physical process governing the NAO index fluctuations is evidence of its complexity. A notable predictive instability is indicated by the positive Lyapunov exponents. Besides corroborating the complex time behaviour of the NAO index, present results suggest that random Cantor sets would be an interesting tool to model lacunarity and time evolution of the NAO index.

  6. Predictability of the monthly North Atlantic Oscillation index based on fractal analyses and dynamic system theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. D. Martínez

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available The predictability of the monthly North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO, index is analysed from the point of view of different fractal concepts and dynamic system theory such as lacunarity, rescaled analysis (Hurst exponent and reconstruction theorem (embedding and correlation dimensions, Kolmogorov entropy and Lyapunov exponents. The main results point out evident signs of randomness and the necessity of stochastic models to represent time evolution of the NAO index. The results also show that the monthly NAO index behaves as a white-noise Gaussian process. The high minimum number of nonlinear equations needed to describe the physical process governing the NAO index fluctuations is evidence of its complexity. A notable predictive instability is indicated by the positive Lyapunov exponents. Besides corroborating the complex time behaviour of the NAO index, present results suggest that random Cantor sets would be an interesting tool to model lacunarity and time evolution of the NAO index.

  7. Inbreeding and Genetic Diversity in Three Imported Swine Breeds in China Using Pedigree Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Q. Tang

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The accumulation of inbreeding and the loss of genetic diversity is a potential problem in the modern swine breeds in China. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to analyze the pedigrees of Chinese Duroc (CD, Landrace (CL and Yorkshire (CY swine to estimate the past and current rates of inbreeding, and to identify the main causes of genetic diversity loss. Pedigree files from CD, CL and CY containing, 4529, 16,776 and 22,600 records, respectively, were analyzed. Pedigree completeness indexes of the three breeds, accounting for one generation back, were 83.72, 93.93 and 93.59%, respectively. The estimated average annual inbreeding rates for CD, CL and CY in recent three years were 0.21, 0.19 and 0.13%, respectively. The estimated average percentage of genetic diversity loss within each breed in recent three years was about 8.92, 2.19, and 3.36%, respectively. The average relative proportion of genetic diversity loss due to unequal contributions of founders in CD, CL and CY was 69.09, 57.95 and 60.57%, and due to random genetic drift was 30.91, 42.05 and 39.43%, respectively. The estimated current effective population size for CD, CL and CY was 76, 117 and 202, respectively. Therefore, CD has been found to have lost considerable genetic diversity, demanding priority for optimizing the selection and mating to control future coancestry and inbreeding. Unequal contribution of founders was a major cause of genetic diversity loss in Chinese swine breeds and random genetic drift also showed substantial impact on the loss of diversity.

  8. Inbreeding depression of mating behavior and its reproductive consequences in a freshwater snail

    OpenAIRE

    Janicke Tim; Vellnow Nikolas; Lamy Thomas; Chapuis Elodie; David Patrice

    2014-01-01

    Inbreeding is expected to impair male and female reproductive performance, but little is known on how inbreeding depression varies between sexes and different levels of competition. We studied inbreeding depression in mating behavior and its reproductive consequences in a hermaphroditic freshwater snail and demonstrate that inbreeding depresses mating success in both sex functions. However, the magnitude of inbreeding depression does not differ between sex functions and is not affected by the...

  9. Sex-biased inbreeding effects on reproductive success and home range size of the critically endangered black rhinoceros.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cain, Bradley; Wandera, Antony B; Shawcross, Susan G; Edwin Harris, W; Stevens-Wood, Barry; Kemp, Stephen J; Okita-Ouma, Benson; Watts, Phillip C

    2014-04-01

    A central premise of conservation biology is that small populations suffer reduced viability through loss of genetic diversity and inbreeding. However, there is little evidence that variation in inbreeding impacts individual reproductive success within remnant populations of threatened taxa, largely due to problems associated with obtaining comprehensive pedigree information to estimate inbreeding. In the critically endangered black rhinoceros, a species that experienced severe demographic reductions, we used model selection to identify factors associated with variation in reproductive success (number of offspring). Factors examined as predictors of reproductive success were age, home range size, number of nearby mates, reserve location, and multilocus heterozygosity (a proxy for inbreeding). Multilocus heterozygosity predicted male reproductive success (p58%) and correlated with male home range size (p 44%). Such effects were not apparent in females, where reproductive success was determined by age (p < 0.01, explained deviance 34%) as females raise calves alone and choose between, rather than compete for, mates. This first report of a 3-way association between an individual male's heterozygosity, reproductive output, and territory size in a large vertebrate is consistent with an asymmetry in the level of intrasexual competition and highlights the relevance of sex-biased inbreeding for the management of many conservation-priority species. Our results contrast with the idea that wild populations of threatened taxa may possess some inherent difference from most nonthreatened populations that necessitates the use of detailed pedigrees to study inbreeding effects. Despite substantial variance in male reproductive success, the increased fitness of more heterozygous males limits the loss of heterozygosity. Understanding how individual differences in genetic diversity mediate the outcome of intrasexual competition will be essential for effective management, particularly

  10. Inbreeding patterns in the Gredos Mountain Range (Spain).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuster, V; Morales, B; Mesa, M S; Martin, J

    1996-02-01

    The relationships among the frequency of consanguineous marriages, inbreeding coefficient, period, village size, and altitude are analyzed for three rural valleys belonging to the Sierra de Gredos (central Spain). These valleys occupy an area of about 30 x 80 km2, and the average total number of inhabitants for the period 1877-1970 was 58,621. Information about a sample of 23,744 weddings celebrated between 1875 and 1974 was obtained from 48 village parish registers. The mean inbreeding level up to second cousins for the whole area was 0.0012. A high percentage of inbreeding variation (83%) can be explained by each village's census size, resulting in a different interslope consanguinity pattern consisting of higher inbreeding levels in most northern localities in the Gredos mountains. This north-south geographic trend is consistent with results on blood polymorphisms from the same area (Mesa et al. 1994).

  11. A fear index to predict oil futures returns

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chevallier, Julien; Sevi, Benoit

    2013-01-01

    This paper evaluates the predictability of WTI light sweet crude oil futures by using the variance risk premium, i.e. the difference between model-free measures of implied and realized volatilities. Additional regressors known for their ability to explain crude oil futures prices are also considered, capturing macro-economic, financial and oil-specific influences. The results indicate that the explanatory power of the (negative) variance risk premium on oil excess returns is particularly strong (up to 25% for the adjusted R-squared across our regressions). It complements other financial (e.g. default spread) and oil-specific (e.g. US oil stocks) factors highlighted in previous literature. (authors)

  12. Genomic Inbreeding and Relatedness in Wild Panda Populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John R Garbe

    Full Text Available Inbreeding and relatedness in wild panda populations are important parameters for panda conservation. Habitat loss and fragmentation are expected to increase inbreeding but the actual inbreeding levels in natural panda habitats were unknown. Using 150,025 SNPs and 14,926 SNPs selected from published whole-genome sequences, we estimated genomic inbreeding coefficients and relatedness of 49 pandas including 34 wild pandas sampled from six habitats. Qinling and Liangshan pandas had the highest levels of inbreeding and relatedness measured by genomic inbreeding and coancestry coefficients, whereas the inbreeding levels in Qionglai and Minshan were 28-45% of those in Qinling and Liangshan. Genomic coancestry coefficients between pandas from different habitats showed that panda populations from the four largest habitats, Minshan, Qionglai, Qinling and Liangshan, were genetically unrelated. Pandas between these four habitats on average shared 66.0-69.1% common alleles and 45.6-48.6% common genotypes, whereas pandas within each habitat shared 71.8-77.0% common alleles and 51.7-60.4% common genotypes. Pandas in the smaller populations of Qinling and Liangshan were more similarly to each other than pandas in the larger populations of Qionglai and Minshan according to three genomic similarity measures. Panda genetic differentiation between these habitats was positively related to their geographical distances. Most pandas separated by 200 kilometers or more shared no common ancestral alleles. The results provided a genomic quantification of the actual levels of inbreeding and relatedness among pandas in their natural habitats, provided genomic confirmation of the relationship between genetic diversity and geographical distances, and provided genomic evidence to the urgency of habitat protection.

  13. Inbreeding, Microsatellite Heterozygosity, and Morphological Traits in Lipizzan Horses

    OpenAIRE

    Curik, I.; Zechner, P.; Sölkner, J.; Achmann, R.; Bodo, I.; Dovc, P.; Kavar, T.; Marti, E.; Brem, G.

    2017-01-01

    While the negative effects of inbreeding and reduced heterozygosity on fecundity and survival are well established, only a few investigations have been carried out concerning their influence on morphological traits. This topic is of particular interest for a small and closed population such as the Lipizzan horse. Thus, 27 morphological traits were measured in 360 Lipizzan mares and were regressed on the individual inbreeding coefficients, as well as on the individual heterozygosity and mean s...

  14. Genomic Inbreeding and Relatedness in Wild Panda Populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garbe, John R; Prakapenka, Dzianis; Tan, Cheng; Da, Yang

    2016-01-01

    Inbreeding and relatedness in wild panda populations are important parameters for panda conservation. Habitat loss and fragmentation are expected to increase inbreeding but the actual inbreeding levels in natural panda habitats were unknown. Using 150,025 SNPs and 14,926 SNPs selected from published whole-genome sequences, we estimated genomic inbreeding coefficients and relatedness of 49 pandas including 34 wild pandas sampled from six habitats. Qinling and Liangshan pandas had the highest levels of inbreeding and relatedness measured by genomic inbreeding and coancestry coefficients, whereas the inbreeding levels in Qionglai and Minshan were 28-45% of those in Qinling and Liangshan. Genomic coancestry coefficients between pandas from different habitats showed that panda populations from the four largest habitats, Minshan, Qionglai, Qinling and Liangshan, were genetically unrelated. Pandas between these four habitats on average shared 66.0-69.1% common alleles and 45.6-48.6% common genotypes, whereas pandas within each habitat shared 71.8-77.0% common alleles and 51.7-60.4% common genotypes. Pandas in the smaller populations of Qinling and Liangshan were more similarly to each other than pandas in the larger populations of Qionglai and Minshan according to three genomic similarity measures. Panda genetic differentiation between these habitats was positively related to their geographical distances. Most pandas separated by 200 kilometers or more shared no common ancestral alleles. The results provided a genomic quantification of the actual levels of inbreeding and relatedness among pandas in their natural habitats, provided genomic confirmation of the relationship between genetic diversity and geographical distances, and provided genomic evidence to the urgency of habitat protection.

  15. Inbreeding and PKU allele frequency: Estimating by microsatellite approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, Luciana L; da Fonseca, Cleusa G; Vaintraub, Marco T; Vaintraub, Patricia; Januário, José N; de Aguiar, Marcos J B; Raquel Santos Carvalho, Maria

    2010-01-01

    Estimates of allele frequencies for recessive diseases are generally based on the frequency of affected individuals (q(2)). However, these estimates can be strongly biased due to inbreeding in the population. The purpose of this study was to gain a better understanding of how inbreeding in the Minas Gerais State population affects phenylketonuria (PKU) incidence in the state and to determine the inbreeding coefficient based on microsatellites. Inbreeding coefficients of samples of 104 controls and 76 patients with PKU were estimated through a microsatellite approach. Besides, the amount and distribution of genetic variation within and among patients with PKU and control samples were characterized. No genetic differentiation was observed between the samples. However, the Fis value found for samples of patients with PKU (0.042) was almost 15 times higher than that found among controls (0.003). When corrected by the inbreeding coefficient found among the controls, the PKU allele frequency decreased to 0.0057. The results enables us to infer that at least 35% of the PKU recessive homozygotes from the Minas Gerais population could be due to consanguineous marriages and suggest that microsatellites can be an useful approach to estimate inbreeding coefficients. (c) 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  16. A new body shape index predicts mortality hazard independently of body mass index.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nir Y Krakauer

    Full Text Available Obesity, typically quantified in terms of Body Mass Index (BMI exceeding threshold values, is considered a leading cause of premature death worldwide. For given body size (BMI, it is recognized that risk is also affected by body shape, particularly as a marker of abdominal fat deposits. Waist circumference (WC is used as a risk indicator supplementary to BMI, but the high correlation of WC with BMI makes it hard to isolate the added value of WC.We considered a USA population sample of 14,105 non-pregnant adults (age ≥ 18 from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES 1999-2004 with follow-up for mortality averaging 5 yr (828 deaths. We developed A Body Shape Index (ABSI based on WC adjusted for height and weight: ABSI ≡ WC/(BMI(2/3height(1/2. ABSI had little correlation with height, weight, or BMI. Death rates increased approximately exponentially with above average baseline ABSI (overall regression coefficient of +33% per standard deviation of ABSI [95% confidence interval: +20%-+48%, whereas elevated death rates were found for both high and low values of BMI and WC. 22% (8%-41% of the population mortality hazard was attributable to high ABSI, compared to 15% (3%-30% for BMI and 15% (4%-29% for WC. The association of death rate with ABSI held even when adjusted for other known risk factors including smoking, diabetes, blood pressure, and serum cholesterol. ABSI correlation with mortality hazard held across the range of age, sex, and BMI, and for both white and black ethnicities (but not for Mexican ethnicity, and was not weakened by excluding deaths from the first 3 yr of follow-up.Body shape, as measured by ABSI, appears to be a substantial risk factor for premature mortality in the general population derivable from basic clinical measurements. ABSI expresses the excess risk from high WC in a convenient form that is complementary to BMI and to other known risk factors.

  17. Predicting nosocomial lower respiratory tract infections by a risk index based system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chen, Yong; Shan, Xue; Zhao, Jingya; Han, Xuelin; Tian, Shuguang; Chen, Fangyan; Su, Xueting; Sun, Yansong; Huang, Liuyu; Grundmann, Hajo; Wang, Hongyuan; Han, Li

    2017-01-01

    Although belonging to one of the most common type of nosocomial infection, there was currently no simple prediction model for lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs). This study aims to develop a risk index based system for predicting nosocomial LRTIs based on data from a large point-prevalence

  18. Construction of prediction intervals for Palmer Drought Severity Index using bootstrap

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beyaztas, Ufuk; Bickici Arikan, Bugrayhan; Beyaztas, Beste Hamiye; Kahya, Ercan

    2018-04-01

    In this study, we propose an approach based on the residual-based bootstrap method to obtain valid prediction intervals using monthly, short-term (three-months) and mid-term (six-months) drought observations. The effects of North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillation indexes on the constructed prediction intervals are also examined. Performance of the proposed approach is evaluated for the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) obtained from Konya closed basin located in Central Anatolia, Turkey. The finite sample properties of the proposed method are further illustrated by an extensive simulation study. Our results revealed that the proposed approach is capable of producing valid prediction intervals for future PDSI values.

  19. Inbreeding avoidance in an isolated indigenous Zapotec community in the valley of Oaxaca, southern Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Little, Bertis B; Malina, Robert M

    2005-06-01

    We analyzed inbreeding using surname isonymy in an indigenous genetic isolate. The subjects were residents of a rural Zapotec-speaking community in the valley of Oaxaca, southern Mexico. The community can be classified as a genetic isolate with an average gene flow of indigenous Mexican populations. A total of 2,149 individuals had valid surname patronym-matronym pairings, including 484 deceased ancestors. Surname isonymy analysis methods were used to estimate total inbreeding and to segregate it into random and nonrandom components. The surname isonymy coefficient computed from 119 isonymous surname pairings (119/2,149) was 0.0554. The estimated inbreeding coefficient from surname isonymy was 0.0138 (0.0554/4). The random and nonrandom components of inbreeding were F(r) = 0.0221 and F(n) = -0.0091, respectively. The results suggest that consanguinity is culturally avoided. Nonrandom inbreeding decreased total inbreeding by about 41%. Total estimated inbreeding by surname isonymy was 0.0138, which is similar to inbreeding estimated from a sample of pedigrees, 0.01. Socially prescribed inbreeding avoidance substantially lowered total F through negative nonrandom inbreeding. Even in the situation of genetic isolation and small effective population size (N(e)), estimated inbreeding is lower than may have otherwise occurred if inbreeding were only random. However, among the poorest individuals, socially prescribed jural rules for inbreeding avoidance failed to operate. Thus the preponderance of inbreeding appears to occur among the poor, economically disadvantaged in the community.

  20. Cost of inbreeding in resistance to herbivores in Datura stramonium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bello-Bedoy, Rafael; Núñez-Farfán, Juan

    2010-05-01

    Experiments show that inbred progenies are frequently more damaged by herbivores than outcrossed progenies, suggesting that selfing is costly when herbivores are present and can increase the magnitude of inbreeding depression in survival and reproductive components of fitness. The present study assesses whether inbreeding increases herbivory and estimates the magnitude of inbreeding depression on reproductive components of fitness in the annual plant Datura stramonium. Two experiments were performed under natural conditions of herbivory to assess the effect of inbreeding on plant damage in D. stramonium. In the first experiment, outcrossed progeny was generated using foreign pollen donors, whereas inbred progeny was produced by self-pollination. In both groups, survival, herbivore damage and reproductive components of fitness were measured. In the second experiment, inbred and outcrossed progenies were produced using only local pollen donors, and only damage by herbivores was measured. Despite yearly variation in damage caused by the same specialist herbivores, inbred progeny suffered consistently more damage than outcrossed progeny. There was a significant inbreeding depression for fruit number (delta = 0.3), seed number per fruit (delta = 0.19) and seed number per plant (delta = 0.43). Furthermore, significant genetic variation amongst families in the magnitude of inbreeding depression was observed. The results suggest that the plant's mating system modified the pattern of herbivory by specialist insects in D. stramonium. Inbred plants suffer not only from the genetic cost of low vigour but also from greater damage by herbivores. The mechanism by which inbreeding reduces plant resistance to herbivores remains unknown but is an interesting area for future research.

  1. Fatty liver index and hepatic steatosis index for prediction of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in type 1 diabetes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sviklāne, Laura; Olmane, Evija; Dzērve, Zane; Kupčs, Kārlis; Pīrāgs, Valdis; Sokolovska, Jeļizaveta

    2018-01-01

    Little is known about the diagnostic value of hepatic steatosis index (HSI) and fatty liver index (FLI), as well as their link to metabolic syndrome in type 1 diabetes mellitus. We have screened the effectiveness of FLI and HSI in an observational pilot study of 40 patients with type 1 diabetes. FLI and HSI were calculated for 201 patients with type 1 diabetes. Forty patients with FLI/HSI values corresponding to different risk of liver steatosis were invited for liver magnetic resonance study. In-phase/opposed-phase technique of magnetic resonance was used. Accuracy of indices was assessed from the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Twelve (30.0%) patients had liver steatosis. For FLI, sensitivity was 90%; specificity, 74%; positive likelihood ratio, 3.46; negative likelihood ratio, 0.14; positive predictive value, 0.64; and negative predictive value, 0.93. For HSI, sensitivity was 86%; specificity, 66%; positive likelihood ratio, 1.95; negative likelihood ratio, 0.21; positive predictive value, 0.50; and negative predictive value, 0.92. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for FLI was 0.86 (95% confidence interval [0.72; 0.99]); for HSI 0.75 [0.58; 0.91]. Liver fat correlated with liver enzymes, waist circumference, triglycerides, and C-reactive protein. FLI correlated with C-reactive protein, liver enzymes, and blood pressure. HSI correlated with waist circumference and C-reactive protein. FLI ≥ 60 and HSI ≥ 36 were significantly associated with metabolic syndrome and nephropathy. The tested indices, especially FLI, can serve as surrogate markers for liver fat content and metabolic syndrome in type 1 diabetes. © 2017 Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Foundation and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

  2. AN ACTION OF EXOGENOUS STEROIDAL GLYCOSIDE ON EXHIBITION OF INBREEDING DEPRESSION IN RED BEET PLANTS UNDER PROTECTED CULTIVATION TECHNOLOGY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. G. Kozar

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The protected cultivation technology, through which the various inbred generations with the combination of economic valuable traits and different level of sterility can be produced, is used in order to accelerate the breeding program. However, there is a negative effect of inbreeding depression and self-incompatibility can often occur and cause the loss of valuable breeding forms. The aim of the work was to study the influence of steroidal glycosides capsicoside (SGC on exhibition of CMS, and morphobiological parameters of 13 inbred generations that were produced from fertile plant and partly sterile plants with level of sterility 10% and 50%. The seeds were soaked for 24 hours in water solution of SGC with concentration 10-3%, and in water control. Then the seeds were dried up and sown in the greenhouse. The stecklings and roots obtained were vernalized at 3-5Co. Mother plants were grown under 18 hour photoperiod in greenhouse with supplementary lighting. Inbreeding seeds were obtained in individual cloth isolators. It was shown that for all generations the treatment with SGC improved the seed germination (4-8% more, increased the root index and its length (12-24% more, decreased betanin content (22-48% less in comparison with control. The action of SGC on the other morphological and biochemical traits such as height of leaf rosette, leaf number, plant and root weight, head size, number of generative buds, and nitrate content was defined by the level of sterility of mother plant. The most expressed effect for all traits mentioned was seen in inbreeding generations of sterile plants with high level of sterility. After action effect of seed treatment with SGC on development of seed plants from inbreeding generations, not depending on sterility level of mother plants, showed the positive influence on plant habitus of seed mother plants, decreasing the plant height, but increasing stem number and functional parameters of microgametophyte in fertile

  3. Prediction of melanoma metastasis by the Shields index based on lymphatic vessel density

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Metcalfe Chris

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Melanoma usually presents as an initial skin lesion without evidence of metastasis. A significant proportion of patients develop subsequent local, regional or distant metastasis, sometimes many years after the initial lesion was removed. The current most effective staging method to identify early regional metastasis is sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB, which is invasive, not without morbidity and, while improving staging, may not improve overall survival. Lymphatic density, Breslow's thickness and the presence or absence of lymphatic invasion combined has been proposed to be a prognostic index of metastasis, by Shields et al in a patient group. Methods Here we undertook a retrospective analysis of 102 malignant melanomas from patients with more than five years follow-up to evaluate the Shields' index and compare with existing indicators. Results The Shields' index accurately predicted outcome in 90% of patients with metastases and 84% without metastases. For these, the Shields index was more predictive than thickness or lymphatic density. Alternate lymphatic measurement (hot spot analysis was also effective when combined into the Shields index in a cohort of 24 patients. Conclusions These results show the Shields index, a non-invasive analysis based on immunohistochemistry of lymphatics surrounding primary lesions that can accurately predict outcome, is a simple, useful prognostic tool in malignant melanoma.

  4. Comparison of 2 frailty indexes for prediction of falls, disability, fractures, and death in older women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ensrud, Kristine E; Ewing, Susan K; Taylor, Brent C; Fink, Howard A; Cawthon, Peggy M; Stone, Katie L; Hillier, Teresa A; Cauley, Jane A; Hochberg, Marc C; Rodondi, Nicolas; Tracy, J Kathleen; Cummings, Steven R

    2008-02-25

    Frailty, as defined by the index derived from the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS index), predicts risk of adverse outcomes in older adults. Use of this index, however, is impractical in clinical practice. We conducted a prospective cohort study in 6701 women 69 years or older to compare the predictive validity of a simple frailty index with the components of weight loss, inability to rise from a chair 5 times without using arms, and reduced energy level (Study of Osteoporotic Fractures [SOF index]) with that of the CHS index with the components of unintentional weight loss, poor grip strength, reduced energy level, slow walking speed, and low level of physical activity. Women were classified as robust, of intermediate status, or frail using each index. Falls were reported every 4 months for 1 year. Disability (> or =1 new impairment in performing instrumental activities of daily living) was ascertained at 4(1/2) years, and fractures and deaths were ascertained during 9 years of follow-up. Area under the curve (AUC) statistics from receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and -2 log likelihood statistics were compared for models containing the CHS index vs the SOF index. Increasing evidence of frailty as defined by either the CHS index or the SOF index was similarly associated with an increased risk of adverse outcomes. Frail women had a higher age-adjusted risk of recurrent falls (odds ratio, 2.4), disability (odds ratio, 2.2-2.8), nonspine fracture (hazard ratio, 1.4-1.5), hip fracture (hazard ratio, 1.7-1.8), and death (hazard ratio, 2.4-2.7) (P falls (AUC = 0.61 for both models; P = .66), disability (AUC = 0.64; P = .23), nonspine fracture (AUC = 0.55; P = .80), hip fracture (AUC = 0.63; P = .64), or death (AUC = 0.72; P = .10). Results were similar when -2 log likelihood statistics were compared. The simple SOF index predicts risk of falls, disability, fracture, and death as well as the more complex CHS index and may provide a useful definition of

  5. Plant traits correlated with generation time directly affect inbreeding depression and mating system and indirectly genetic structure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hardy Olivier J

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Understanding the mechanisms that control species genetic structure has always been a major objective in evolutionary studies. The association between genetic structure and species attributes has received special attention. As species attributes are highly taxonomically constrained, phylogenetically controlled methods are necessary to infer causal relationships. In plants, a previous study controlling for phylogenetic signal has demonstrated that Wright's FST, a measure of genetic differentiation among populations, is best predicted by the mating system (outcrossing, mixed-mating or selfing and that plant traits such as perenniality and growth form have only an indirect influence on FST via their association with the mating system. The objective of this study is to further outline the determinants of plant genetic structure by distinguishing the effects of mating system on gene flow and on genetic drift. The association of biparental inbreeding and inbreeding depression with population genetic structure, mating system and plant traits are also investigated. Results Based on data from 263 plant species for which estimates of FST, inbreeding (FIS and outcrossing rate (tm are available, we confirm that mating system is the main influencing factor of FST. Moreover, using an alternative measure of FST unaffected by the impact of inbreeding on effective population size, we show that the influence of tm on FST is due to its impact on gene flow (reduced pollen flow under selfing and on genetic drift (higher drift under selfing due to inbreeding. Plant traits, in particular perenniality, influence FST mostly via their effect on the mating system but also via their association with the magnitude of selection against inbred individuals: the mean inbreeding depression increases from short-lived herbaceous to long-lived herbaceous and then to woody species. The influence of perenniality on mating system does not seem to be related to

  6. Age Shock Index is Superior to Shock Index and Modified Shock Index for Predicting Long-Term Prognosis in Acute Myocardial Infarction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Tongtong; Tian, Chunyang; Song, Jia; He, Dongxu; Sun, Zhijun; Sun, Zhaoqing

    2017-11-01

    Shock index (SI) has been reported to help us predict adverse prognosis in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). However, the prognostic value of age SI and modified shock index (MSI) in AMI undergoing PCI is unknown. Moreover, the prognostic performance of admission age SI is not compared with SI, MSI, and the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk score. One thousand eight hundred sixty-four AMI patients undergoing PCI were analyzed in a retrospective cohort study. Clinical endpoint was all-cause mortality. The predictive performance of new models was assessed by C-statistic, Hosmer-Lemeshow test, Nagelkerke-R, Brier scores, integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), and net reclassification improvement (NRI). Multivariate analysis showed that higher age SI and MSI were both associated with a higher rate of all-cause mortality [age SI: hazard ratios (HR) = 1.025, 95% CI = 1.010-1.040, P = 0.001; MSI: HR = 2.902, 95% CI = 1.180-7.137, P = 0.020]. The prognostic performance of admission age SI was similar to the GRACE systems for predicting all-cause mortality (C-statistic: z = 0.437, P = 0.662; IDI: -0.005, P = 0.474; NRI: -0.028, P = 0.257), but better than admission SI (C-statistic: z = 3.944, P NRI: 0.472, P NRI: 0.561, P < 0.001). Age SI alone can identify patients at high risk of death in AMI patients undergoing PCI. It is similar to GRACE but better than SI and MSI for predicting all-cause mortality. However, age SI is easier to calculate than GRACE.

  7. ARTICLE - Inbreeding depression in castor bean (Ricinus communis L. progenies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milton Krieger

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to investigate inbreeding depression (DE in castor bean. From a population derived from the Guarani cultivar, 60 mother plants were sampled. Three types of progenies were obtained from each one: from self-pollination (AU, from crosses (CR and from open pollination (PL. Grain yield of the progenies was evaluated in two locations. There was a strong interaction of progenies x locations, which led to obtaining estimates within each location. Broad variation was observed in inbreeding depression, with mean values of 6.7% and 13.4%, comparing AU progenies with PL progenies. It was observed that the population has high potential for selecting promising inbred lines. The frequency of mother plants generating progenies with simultaneous high general combination capacity and low inbreeding depression was low. Recurrent selection will increase the occurrence of parent plants associating these two properties, which is necessary for obtaining superior synthetic varieties.

  8. Proteomic characterization of inbreeding-related cold sensitivity in Drosophila melanogaster

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vermeulen, Cornelis Joseph; Pedersen, Kamilla Sofie; Beck, Hans C

    2013-01-01

    insight into the molecular interplay between intrinsic stress responses, inbreeding depression and temperature tolerance, we performed a proteomic characterization of a well-defined conditional inbreeding effect in a single line of Drosophila melanogaster, which suffers from extreme cold sensitivity...

  9. Accuracy of body mass index in predicting pre-eclampsia: bivariate meta-analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cnossen, J. S.; Leeflang, M. M. G.; de Haan, E. E. M.; Mol, B. W. J.; van der Post, J. A. M.; Khan, K. S.; ter Riet, G.

    2007-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to determine the accuracy of body mass index (BMI) (pre-pregnancy or at booking) in predicting pre-eclampsia and to explore its potential for clinical application. DESIGN: Systematic review and bivariate meta-analysis. SETTING: Medline, Embase, Cochrane

  10. Predicting postoperative complications after bariatric surgery: the Bariatric Surgery Index for Complications, BASIC

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Coblijn, U.K. (Usha K.); J. Karres (Julian); de Raaff, C.A.L. (Christel A. L.); S.M.M. de Castro (Steve); S.M. Lagarde (Sjoerd); W.F. van Tets (Willem); H.J. Bonjer (H. Jaap); B.A. van Wagensveld (Bart)

    2017-01-01

    textabstractBackground: Around 20% of bariatric surgery patients develop a short- or long-term complication. Objective: Aim of this study was to develop a risk model predicting complications: the Bariatric Surgery Index for Complications (BASIC). Setting: The Obesity Center Amsterdam, located in a

  11. Significance of a Behavioral Economic Index of Reward Value in Predicting Drinking Problem Resolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tucker, Jalie A.; Vuchinich, Rudy E.; Black, Bethany C.; Rippens, Paula D.

    2006-01-01

    This study investigated whether a behavioral economic index of the value of rewards available over different time horizons improved prediction of drinking outcomes beyond established biopsychosocial predictors. Preferences for immediate drinking versus more delayed rewards made possible by saving money were determined from expenditures prior to…

  12. Apnea-Hypopnea Index Prediction Using Electrocardiogram Acquired During the Sleep-Onset Period.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Da Woon; Hwang, Su Hwan; Lee, Yu Jin; Jeong, Do-Un; Park, Kwang Suk

    2017-02-01

    The most widely used methods for predicting obstructive sleep apnea are based on clinical or anatomico-functional features. To improve exactitude in obstructive sleep apnea screening, this study aimed to devise a new predictor of apnea-hypopnea index. We hypothesized that less irregular respiration cycles would be observed in the patients with more severe obstructive sleep apnea during the sleep-onset period. From each of the 156 and 70 single-lead electrocardiograms collected from the internal polysomnographic database and from the Physionet Apnea-ECG database, respectively, the 150-s sleep-onset period was determined and the respiration cycles during this period were detected. Using the coefficient of variation of the respiration cycles, obtained from the internal dataset, as a predictor, the apnea-hypopnea index predictive model was developed through regression analyses and k-fold cross-validations. The apnea-hypopnea index predictability of the regression model was tested with the Physionet Apnea-ECG database. The regression model trained and validated from the 143 and 13 data, respectively, produced an absolute error (mean ± SD) of 3.65 ±2.98 events/h and a Pearson's correlation coefficient of 0.97 (P < 0.01) between the apnea-hypopnea index predictive values and the reference values for the 70 test data. The new predictor of apnea-hypopnea index has the potential to be utilized in making more reasoned clinical decisions on the need for formal diagnosis and treatment of obstructive sleep apnea. Our study is the first study that presented the strategy for providing a reliable apnea-hypopnea index without overnight recording.

  13. Improved predictability of droughts over southern Africa using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index and ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manatsa, Desmond; Mushore, Terrence; Lenouo, Andre

    2017-01-01

    The provision of timely and reliable climate information on which to base management decisions remains a critical component in drought planning for southern Africa. In this observational study, we have not only proposed a forecasting scheme which caters for timeliness and reliability but improved relevance of the climate information by using a novel drought index called the standardised precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), instead of the traditional precipitation only based index, the standardised precipitation index (SPI). The SPEI which includes temperature and other climatic factors in its construction has a more robust connection to ENSO than the SPI. Consequently, the developed ENSO-SPEI prediction scheme can provide quantitative information about the spatial extent and severity of predicted drought conditions in a way that reflects more closely the level of risk in the global warming context of the sub region. However, it is established that the ENSO significant regional impact is restricted only to the period December-March, implying a revisit to the traditional ENSO-based forecast scheme which essentially divides the rainfall season into the two periods, October to December and January to March. Although the prediction of ENSO events has increased with the refinement of numerical models, this work has demonstrated that the prediction of drought impacts related to ENSO is also a reality based only on observations. A large temporal lag is observed between the development of ENSO phenomena (typically in May of the previous year) and the identification of regional SPEI defined drought conditions. It has been shown that using the Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum's (SARCOF) traditional 3-month averaged Nino 3.4 SST index (June to August) as a predictor does not have an added advantage over using only the May SST index values. In this regard, the extended lead time and improved skill demonstrated in this study could immensely benefit

  14. Diagnostic accuracy of a mathematical model to predict apnea-hypopnea index using nighttime pulse oximetry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebben, Matthew R.; Krieger, Ana C.

    2016-03-01

    The intent of this study is to develop a predictive model to convert an oxygen desaturation index (ODI) to an apnea-hypopnea index (AHI). This model will then be compared to actual AHI to determine its precision. One thousand four hundred and sixty-seven subjects given polysomnograms with concurrent pulse oximetry between April 14, 2010, and February 7, 2012, were divided into model development (n=733) and verification groups (n=734) in order to develop a predictive model of AHI using ODI. Quadratic regression was used for model development. The coefficient of determination (r2) between the actual AHI and the predicted AHI (PredAHI) was 0.80 (r=0.90), which was significant at a papnea.

  15. Indexed

    CERN Document Server

    Hagy, Jessica

    2008-01-01

    Jessica Hagy is a different kind of thinker. She has an astonishing talent for visualizing relationships, capturing in pictures what is difficult for most of us to express in words. At indexed.blogspot.com, she posts charts, graphs, and Venn diagrams drawn on index cards that reveal in a simple and intuitive way the large and small truths of modern life. Praised throughout the blogosphere as “brilliant,” “incredibly creative,” and “comic genius,” Jessica turns her incisive, deadpan sense of humor on everything from office politics to relationships to religion. With new material along with some of Jessica’s greatest hits, this utterly unique book will thrill readers who demand humor that makes them both laugh and think.

  16. Systemic inflammation response index (SIRI) predicts prognosis in hepatocellular carcinoma patients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Litao; Yu, Shulin; Zhuang, Liping; Wang, Peng; Shen, Yehua; Lin, Junhua; Meng, Zhiqiang

    2017-01-01

    The systemic inflammation response index (SIRI) is a useful tool for predicting prognosis in some types of cancer. In this retrospective study, we evaluated the efficacy of SIRI in predicting overall survival in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients following local or systemic therapy. A cutoff value of 1.05 was identified for SIRI using ROC analysis in a training patient cohort. In the validation cohort, survival analysis revealed that median overall survival was longer in HCC patients with SIRI scores SIRI was associated with overall survival and was more predictive of overall survival that the AFP level or Child-Pugh score. However, SIRI and Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage were equally effective for predicting survival. In addition, HCC patients with BCLC stage C had higher SIRI scores and poorer overall survival. SIRI also correlated with liver function parameters. Thus SIRI may be a convenient, low cost and reliable tumor marker for predicting prognosis in HCC patients. PMID:28430597

  17. Intelligent Monitoring System on Prediction of Building Damage Index using Artificial Neural Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Reni Suryanita

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available An earthquake potentially destroys a tall building. The building damage can be indexed by FEMA into three categories namely Immediate Occupancy (IO, Life Safety (LS, and Collapse Prevention (CP. To determine the damage index, the building model has been simulated into structure analysis software. Acceleration data has been analyzed using non linear method in structure analysis program. The earthquake load is time history at surface, PGA=0105g. This work proposes an intelligent monitoring system utilizing Artificial Neural Network to predict the building damage index. The system also provides an alert system and notification to inform the status of the damage. Data learning is trained on ANN utilizing feed forward and back propagation algorithm. The alert system is designed to be able to activate the alarm sound, view the alert bar or text, and send notification via email to the security or management. The system is tested using sample data represented in three conditions involving IO, LS, and CP. The results show that the proposed intelligent monitoring system could provide prediction of up to 92% rate of accuracy and activate the alert. Implementation of the system in building monitoring would allow for rapid, intelligent and accurate prediction of the building damage index due to earthquake.

  18. Predicting the difficulty of a transvenous lead extraction procedure: Validation of the LED index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bontempi, Luca; Vassanelli, Francesca; Cerini, Manuel; Inama, Lorenza; Salghetti, Francesca; Giacopelli, Daniele; Gargaro, Alessio; Raweh, Abdallah; Curnis, Antonio

    2017-07-01

    A lead extraction difficulty (LED) score was proposed to predict the difficult transvenous lead extraction (TLE) procedures, defined by means of the fluoroscopy time. The aim of this study was to validate the estimation model based on the LED index above 10 on an independent data set of TLE cases. Consecutive patients undergoing TLE between January 2014 and January 2016 were included in this analysis. The fluoroscopy time related to the leads removal was dichotomized as above or below its 90th percentile (PCTL). In total, 446 permanent leads were removed during 233 TLE procedures. Complete procedural success was achieved in 232 (99.1%) patients. The LED index resulted >10 in 83(35.6%) procedures. Among these cases, 20 had fluoroscopy time above the 90th PCTL (23.3 minutes) and were classified as true positive. Over the 150 procedures with LED score LED index in predicting complex cases resulted 86.9 (confidence interval [CI] 66.4-97.2)%, 70.0 (CI 63.3-76.1)%, and 98.0 (CI 94.3-99.6)%, respectively. The multivariate logistic regression analysis confirmed a 12% increased risk of high fluoroscopy for each additional point of the LED score (OR 1.12, CI 1.05-1.21, P = 0.001). The validation of the estimation model based on the LED index <10 confirmed its high efficacy in predicting simple TLE procedures. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  19. Estimation of Heterosis and Inbreeding Depression in Quantitative ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    It is important to know the degree and direction of heterosis for its commercial exploitation. Heterosis and in-breeding depression were estimated in 8x8 half diallel crosses of rice. The planted materials consisted ofeight parental inbred lines, their F1 hybrids and F2 populations using randomized complete block design with ...

  20. [Inbreeding, endogamy and exogamy among relatives of schizophrenia patients].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abaskuliev, A A; Skoblo, G V

    1975-01-01

    An increased frequency of consanguineous marriages among the parents of schizophrenic patients in comparison with the control group of exogenous-somatic patients (infections, trauma) was found. Endogamy among the parents of schizophrenic patients and the control group was practically the same. The data obtained indicate a certain, but not the leading, role of inbreeding in the etiology of schizophrenia.

  1. Estimates of genetic parameters and effect of inbreeding on milk ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The statistical model included the fixed effects of herd-year-season, age of the cow at calving, calving interval, inbreeding as a discrete or continuous variable and random effects of direct additive genetic, permanent environment of the cow and the residual effects. The multitrait derivative-free REML algorithm was used to ...

  2. Analysis of genetic diversity and estimation of inbreeding coefficient ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Analysis of genetic diversity and estimation of inbreeding coefficient within Caspian horse population using microsatellite markers. ... structure and to the assessment of genetic diversity that may be helpful to horse breeders in designing and managing breeding or conservation strategies for the Caspian horse breed.

  3. Breeding synchronization facilitates extrapair mating for inbreeding avoidance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kingma, Sjouke A.; Hall, Michelle L.; Peters, Anne

    2013-01-01

    Extrapair (EP) mating can enable females to reduce the negative effects of inbreeding. However, opportunities for EP mating are often ecologically or demographically constrained, and it is unclear whether and how females can overcome these constraints. Here, we show that fitness costs from

  4. Inbreeding depression of 28 maize elite open pollinated varieties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cleso Antônio Patto Pacheco

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available The study of inbreeding depression is important for breeding strategies such as use of inbred progenies or extraction of inbreed lines. A diallel of 28 maize open-pollinated varieties was evaluated in 10 environments in the early 1990s. At the same time, S1 populations for each of the 28 varieties were evaluated in the same 10 experiments (environments. Yield reductions of the populations from S0 to S1 (mean of the 10 environments, varied from 34.6% (CMS-01 to 59.2% (CMS-30, with an average of 49.1%. Inbreeding depression was greater in populations with a wider genetic base, which had never been exposed to inbreeding (CMS-30, BR-107, PH4, Cunha, Saracura, Nitrodent, and Nitroflint. Inbred lines with greater yield means should be obtained from the BR-105, BR-111, CMS-01, CMS-03, BR-106, CMS-14c, and CMS-28 populations. The use of parameter estimates generated by analysis of inbreeding depression, allow to make inferences about frequencies of deleterious alleles in the population. The frequencies of favorable alleles in the parents can be obtained by diallel analysis. The association of these two types of information, can provide a better interpretation of the genetic parameters and also can improve the process of selection of parents for either an intra- or an inter-populational breeding program.

  5. Short communication: Effective population size and inbreeding rate ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Short communication: Effective population size and inbreeding rate of indigenous Nguni cattle under in situ conservation in the low-input communal production ... as not at risk of extinction, while the individual enterprises were classified as being endangered-maintained without the exchange of germ plasm among them.

  6. Presence of inbreeding during a selection experiment with Merino ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Presence of inbreeding during a selection experiment with Merino sheep. GJ Erasmus, AO de Lange, GJ Delport, JJ Olivier. Abstract. No Abstract. Full Text: EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT · DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT · AJOL African Journals Online. HOW TO USE AJOL.

  7. Revealing gene action for production characteristics by inbreeding ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    inbreeding coefficient on the mean of the characters in a two-way selection experiment for the slope (b) and intercept. (Ln (a)) of the ... ln (a) selection group, as well as average daily f-eed intake (Phase I and 2) of the b selection group. Die genewerking wat ..... exposed to natural selection for an extended period under con-.

  8. Inbreeding affects locomotor activity in Drosophila melanogaster at different ages

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manenti, Tommaso; Pertoldi, Cino; Nasiri Moghadam, Neda

    2015-01-01

    The ability to move is essential for many behavioural traits closely related to fitness. Here we studied the effect of inbreeding on locomotor activity (LA) of Drosophila melanogaster at different ages under both dark and light regimes. We expected to find a decreased LA in inbred lines compared...

  9. Inbreeding in the Danish populations of five Nordic sheep breeds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Anders Christian; Norberg, Elise

    2008-01-01

    In Denmark there are small populations of five Nordic sheep breeds, two of which are Danish in origin. The purpose of this study was to estimate trends in inbreeding for these breeds. All five breeds have been recording pedigrees for decades, so pedigree completeness is adequate. The rate...

  10. Artificial Neural Network and Genetic Algorithm Hybrid Intelligence for Predicting Thai Stock Price Index Trend

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Montri Inthachot

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This study investigated the use of Artificial Neural Network (ANN and Genetic Algorithm (GA for prediction of Thailand’s SET50 index trend. ANN is a widely accepted machine learning method that uses past data to predict future trend, while GA is an algorithm that can find better subsets of input variables for importing into ANN, hence enabling more accurate prediction by its efficient feature selection. The imported data were chosen technical indicators highly regarded by stock analysts, each represented by 4 input variables that were based on past time spans of 4 different lengths: 3-, 5-, 10-, and 15-day spans before the day of prediction. This import undertaking generated a big set of diverse input variables with an exponentially higher number of possible subsets that GA culled down to a manageable number of more effective ones. SET50 index data of the past 6 years, from 2009 to 2014, were used to evaluate this hybrid intelligence prediction accuracy, and the hybrid’s prediction results were found to be more accurate than those made by a method using only one input variable for one fixed length of past time span.

  11. Using neural networks for prediction of air pollution index in industrial city

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, P. A.; Panchenko, A. A.; Safarov, A. M.

    2017-10-01

    This scientific paper is dedicated to the use of artificial neural networks for the ecological prediction of state of the atmospheric air of an industrial city for capability of the operative environmental decisions. In the paper, there is also the described development of two types of prediction models for determining of the air pollution index on the basis of neural networks: a temporal (short-term forecast of the pollutants content in the air for the nearest days) and a spatial (forecast of atmospheric pollution index in any point of city). The stages of development of the neural network models are briefly overviewed and description of their parameters is also given. The assessment of the adequacy of the prediction models, based on the calculation of the correlation coefficient between the output and reference data, is also provided. Moreover, due to the complexity of perception of the «neural network code» of the offered models by the ordinary users, the software implementations allowing practical usage of neural network models are also offered. It is established that the obtained neural network models provide sufficient reliable forecast, which means that they are an effective tool for analyzing and predicting the behavior of dynamics of the air pollution in an industrial city. Thus, this scientific work successfully develops the urgent matter of forecasting of the atmospheric air pollution index in industrial cities based on the use of neural network models.

  12. Genomic prediction for Nordic Red Cattle using one-step and selection index blending

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Guosheng, Su; Madsen, Per; Nielsen, Ulrik Sander

    2012-01-01

    This study investigated the accuracy of direct genomic breeding values (DGV) using a genomic BLUP model, genomic enhanced breeding values (GEBV) using a one-step blending approach, and GEBV using a selection index blending approach for 15 traits of Nordic Red Cattle. The data comprised 6,631 bulls...... of which 4,408 bulls were genotyped using Illumina Bovine SNP50 BeadChip (Illumina, San Diego, CA). To validate reliability of genomic predictions, about 20% of the youngest genotyped bulls were taken as test data set. Deregressed proofs (DRP) were used as response variables for genomic predictions....... Reliabilities of genomic predictions in the validation analyses were measured as squared correlations between DRP and genomic predictions corrected for reliability of DRP, based on the bulls in the test data sets. A set of weighting (scaling) factors was used to construct the combined relationship matrix among...

  13. Prediction of clamp-derived insulin sensitivity from the oral glucose insulin sensitivity index

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tura, Andrea; Chemello, Gaetano; Szendroedi, Julia

    2018-01-01

    that underwent both a clamp and an OGTT or meal test, thereby allowing calculation of both the M value and OGIS. The population was divided into a training and a validation cohort (n = 359 and n = 154, respectively). After a stepwise selection approach, the best model for M value prediction was applied......AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The euglycaemic-hyperinsulinaemic clamp is the gold-standard method for measuring insulin sensitivity, but is less suitable for large clinical trials. Thus, several indices have been developed for evaluating insulin sensitivity from the oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT). However......, most of them yield values different from those obtained by the clamp method. The aim of this study was to develop a new index to predict clamp-derived insulin sensitivity (M value) from the OGTT-derived oral glucose insulin sensitivity index (OGIS). METHODS: We analysed datasets of people...

  14. Starch digestibility and predicted glycemic index of fried sweet potato cultivars

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amaka Odenigbo

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Background: Sweet potato (Ipomoea batatas L. is a very rich source of starch. There is increased interest in starch digestibility and the prevention and management of metabolic diseases.Objective: The aim of this study was to evaluate the levels of starch fractions and predicted glycemic index of different cultivars of sweet potato. Material and Method: French fries produced from five cultivars of sweet potato (‘Ginseng Red’, ‘Beauregard’, ‘White Travis’, ‘Georgia Jet clone #2010’ and ‘Georgia Jet’ were used. The level of total starch (TS, resistant starch (RS, digestible starch (DS, and starch digestion index starch digestion index in the samples were evaluated. In vitro starch hydrolysis at 30, 90, and 120 min were determined enzymatically for calculation of rapidly digestible starch (RDS, predicted glycemic index (pGI and slowly digestible starch (SDS respectively. Results: The RS content in all samples had an inversely significant correlation with pGI (-0.52; P<0.05 while RDS had positive and significant influence on both pGI (r=0.55; P<0.05 and SDI (r= 0.94; P<0.01. ‘White Travis’ and ‘Ginseng Red’ had higher levels of beneficial starch fractions (RS and SDS with low pGI and starch digestion Index (SDI, despite their higher TS content. Generally, all the cultivars had products with low to moderate GI values. Conclusion: The glycemic index of these food products highlights the health promoting characteristics of sweet potato cultivars.

  15. Evaluation of inbreeding depression in Holstein cattle using whole-genome SNP markers and alternative measures of genomic inbreeding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bjelland, D W; Weigel, K A; Vukasinovic, N; Nkrumah, J D

    2013-07-01

    The effects of increased pedigree inbreeding in dairy cattle populations have been well documented and result in a negative impact on profitability. Recent advances in genotyping technology have allowed researchers to move beyond pedigree analysis and study inbreeding at a molecular level. In this study, 5,853 animals were genotyped for 54,001 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP); 2,913 cows had phenotypic records including a single lactation for milk yield (from either lactation 1, 2, 3, or 4), reproductive performance, and linear type conformation. After removing SNP with poor call rates, low minor allele frequencies, and departure from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium, 33,025 SNP remained for analyses. Three measures of genomic inbreeding were evaluated: percent homozygosity (FPH), inbreeding calculated from runs of homozygosity (FROH), and inbreeding derived from a genomic relationship matrix (FGRM). Average FPH was 60.5±1.1%, average FROH was 3.8±2.1%, and average FGRM was 20.8±2.3%, where animals with larger values for each of the genomic inbreeding indices were considered more inbred. Decreases in total milk yield to 205d postpartum of 53, 20, and 47kg per 1% increase in FPH, FROH, and FGRM, respectively, were observed. Increases in days open per 1% increase in FPH (1.76 d), FROH (1.72 d), and FGRM (1.06 d) were also noted, as well as increases in maternal calving difficulty (0.09, 0.03, and 0.04 on a 5-point scale for FPH, FROH, and FGRM, respectively). Several linear type traits, such as strength (-0.40, -0.11, and -0.19), rear legs rear view (-0.35, -0.16, and -0.14), front teat placement (0.35, 0.25, 0.18), and teat length (-0.24, -0.14, and -0.13) were also affected by increases in FPH, FROH, and FGRM, respectively. Overall, increases in each measure of genomic inbreeding in this study were associated with negative effects on production and reproductive ability in dairy cows. Copyright © 2013 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc

  16. Raman spectroscopy and the spectral correlation index for predicting wound healing outcome: towards in vivo application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berger, Adam G.; Crane, Nicole J.; Elster, Eric A.

    2016-03-01

    Combat wounds are sometimes confounded by healing complications that are not as prevalent in civilian wounds due to their high energy etiology. One complication of wound healing is dehiscence, where a surgically closed wound reopens after closure. This complication can have serious consequences for the patient, but knowledge about the molecular composition of the wound bed beyond what is readily visible may help clinicians mitigate these complications. It is necessary to develop techniques that can be used in vivo to assess and predict wound healing pointof- care so that care-takers can decide the best way to make informed clinical decisions regarding their patient's healing. Raman spectroscopy is a perfect candidate for predicting wound healing due to its ability to provide a detailed molecular fingerprint of the wound bed noninvasively. Here, we study the spectral correlation index, a measure of orthogonality, with ten reference tissue components to stratify wounds based on how they heal. We analyze these indexes over time to show the modulation of these tissue components over the wound healing process. Results show that qualitative observation of the spectra cannot reveal major differences between the dehisced and normal healing wounds, but the spectral correlation index can. Analysis of the spectral correlations across the wound healing process demonstrates the changes throughout the wound healing process, showing that early differences in tissue components may portend wound healing. Furthermore, Raman spectroscopy coupled with the spectral correlation index presents as a possible point-of-care tool for enabling discrimination of wounds with impaired healing.

  17. Novel Radiobiological Gamma Index for Evaluation of 3-Dimensional Predicted Dose Distribution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sumida, Iori, E-mail: sumida@radonc.med.osaka-u.ac.jp [Department of Radiation Oncology, Osaka University Graduate School of Medicine, Osaka (Japan); Yamaguchi, Hajime; Kizaki, Hisao; Aboshi, Keiko; Tsujii, Mari; Yoshikawa, Nobuhiko; Yamada, Yuji [Department of Radiation Oncology, NTT West Osaka Hospital, Osaka (Japan); Suzuki, Osamu; Seo, Yuji [Department of Radiation Oncology, Osaka University Graduate School of Medicine, Osaka (Japan); Isohashi, Fumiaki [Department of Radiation Oncology, NTT West Osaka Hospital, Osaka (Japan); Yoshioka, Yasuo [Department of Radiation Oncology, Osaka University Graduate School of Medicine, Osaka (Japan); Ogawa, Kazuhiko [Department of Radiation Oncology, NTT West Osaka Hospital, Osaka (Japan)

    2015-07-15

    Purpose: To propose a gamma index-based dose evaluation index that integrates the radiobiological parameters of tumor control (TCP) and normal tissue complication probabilities (NTCP). Methods and Materials: Fifteen prostate and head and neck (H&N) cancer patients received intensity modulated radiation therapy. Before treatment, patient-specific quality assurance was conducted via beam-by-beam analysis, and beam-specific dose error distributions were generated. The predicted 3-dimensional (3D) dose distribution was calculated by back-projection of relative dose error distribution per beam. A 3D gamma analysis of different organs (prostate: clinical [CTV] and planned target volumes [PTV], rectum, bladder, femoral heads; H&N: gross tumor volume [GTV], CTV, spinal cord, brain stem, both parotids) was performed using predicted and planned dose distributions under 2%/2 mm tolerance and physical gamma passing rate was calculated. TCP and NTCP values were calculated for voxels with physical gamma indices (PGI) >1. We propose a new radiobiological gamma index (RGI) to quantify the radiobiological effects of TCP and NTCP and calculate radiobiological gamma passing rates. Results: The mean RGI gamma passing rates for prostate cases were significantly different compared with those of PGI (P<.03–.001). The mean RGI gamma passing rates for H&N cases (except for GTV) were significantly different compared with those of PGI (P<.001). Differences in gamma passing rates between PGI and RGI were due to dose differences between the planned and predicted dose distributions. Radiobiological gamma distribution was visualized to identify areas where the dose was radiobiologically important. Conclusions: RGI was proposed to integrate radiobiological effects into PGI. This index would assist physicians and medical physicists not only in physical evaluations of treatment delivery accuracy, but also in clinical evaluations of predicted dose distribution.

  18. Prediction of clamp-derived insulin sensitivity from the oral glucose insulin sensitivity index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tura, Andrea; Chemello, Gaetano; Szendroedi, Julia; Göbl, Christian; Færch, Kristine; Vrbíková, Jana; Pacini, Giovanni; Ferrannini, Ele; Roden, Michael

    2018-05-01

    The euglycaemic-hyperinsulinaemic clamp is the gold-standard method for measuring insulin sensitivity, but is less suitable for large clinical trials. Thus, several indices have been developed for evaluating insulin sensitivity from the oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT). However, most of them yield values different from those obtained by the clamp method. The aim of this study was to develop a new index to predict clamp-derived insulin sensitivity (M value) from the OGTT-derived oral glucose insulin sensitivity index (OGIS). We analysed datasets of people that underwent both a clamp and an OGTT or meal test, thereby allowing calculation of both the M value and OGIS. The population was divided into a training and a validation cohort (n = 359 and n = 154, respectively). After a stepwise selection approach, the best model for M value prediction was applied to the validation cohort. This cohort was also divided into subgroups according to glucose tolerance, obesity category and age. The new index, called PREDIcted M (PREDIM), was based on OGIS, BMI, 2 h glucose during OGTT and fasting insulin. Bland-Altman analysis revealed a good relationship between the M value and PREDIM in the validation dataset (only 9 of 154 observations outside limits of agreement). Also, no significant differences were found between the M value and PREDIM (equivalence test: p < 0.0063). Subgroup stratification showed that measured M value and PREDIM have a similar ability to detect intergroup differences (p < 0.02, both M value and PREDIM). The new index PREDIM provides excellent prediction of M values from OGTT or meal data, thereby allowing comparison of insulin sensitivity between studies using different tests.

  19. The impact of self-incompatibility systems on the prevention of biparental inbreeding

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tara N. Furstenau

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Inbreeding in hermaphroditic plants can occur through two different mechanisms: biparental inbreeding, when a plant mates with a related individual, or self-fertilization, when a plant mates with itself. To avoid inbreeding, many hermaphroditic plants have evolved self-incompatibility (SI systems which prevent or limit self-fertilization. One particular SI system—homomorphic SI—can also reduce biparental inbreeding. Homomorphic SI is found in many angiosperm species, and it is often assumed that the additional benefit of reduced biparental inbreeding may be a factor in the success of this SI system. To test this assumption, we developed a spatially-explicit, individual-based simulation of plant populations that displayed three different types of homomorphic SI. We measured the total level of inbreeding avoidance by comparing each population to a self-compatible population (NSI, and we measured biparental inbreeding avoidance by comparing to a population of self-incompatible plants that were free to mate with any other individual (PSI. Because biparental inbreeding is more common when offspring dispersal is limited, we examined the levels of biparental inbreeding over a range of dispersal distances. We also tested whether the introduction of inbreeding depression affected the level of biparental inbreeding avoidance. We found that there was a statistically significant decrease in autozygosity in each of the homomorphic SI populations compared to the PSI population and, as expected, this was more pronounced when seed and pollen dispersal was limited. However, levels of homozygosity and inbreeding depression were not reduced. At low dispersal, homomorphic SI populations also suffered reduced female fecundity and had smaller census population sizes. Overall, our simulations showed that the homomorphic SI systems had little impact on the amount of biparental inbreeding in the population especially when compared to the overall reduction in

  20. Challenges in inbreeding estimation of large populations based on Polish Holstein-Friesian cattle pedigree.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sell-Kubiak, Ewa; Czarniecki, Łukasz; Strabel, Tomasz

    2018-04-11

    The aim of this study was to evaluate observed and future inbreeding level in Polish Holstein-Friesian cattle population. In total, over 9.8 mln animals were used in the analysis coming from the pedigree of Polish Federation of Cattle Breeders and Dairy Farmers. Inbreeding level, as an average per birth year, was estimated with the method accounting for missing parent information with the assumption of year 1950 as the base year of the population. If an animal had no ancestral records, an average inbreeding level from its birth year was assigned. Twice the average inbreeding level served as relatedness of the animal to the population, which enabled estimation of inbreeding in its offspring. The future inbreeding of potential offspring was estimated as an average of animals (bulls and cows) available for mating in a certain year. It was observed that 30-50% of animals born between 1985 and 2015 had no relevant ancestral information, which is caused by a high number of new animals and/or entire farms entering the national milk recordings. For the year 2015, the observed inbreeding level was 3.30%, which was more than twice the inbreeding with the classical approach (without missing parent information) and higher by 0.4% than the future inbreeding. The average increase of inbreeding in years 2010-2015 was 0.10%, which is similar to other countries monitored by World Holstein-Friesian Federation. However, the values might be underestimated due to low pedigree completeness. The estimates of future inbreeding suggested that observed inbreeding could be even lower and also increase slower, which indicates a constant need to monitor rate of increase in inbreeding over time. The most important aspect of presented results is the necessity to advise individual farmers to keep precise recordings of the matings on their farm in order to improve the pedigree completeness of Polish Holstein-Friesian and to use suitable mating programs to avoid too rapid growth of inbreeding.

  1. A Bimodel Algorithm with Data-Divider to Predict Stock Index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhaoyue Wang

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available There is not yet reliable software for stock prediction, because most experts of this area have been trying to predict an exact stock index. Considering that the fluctuation of a stock index usually is no more than 1% in a day, the error between the forecasted and the actual values should be no more than 0.5%. It is too difficult to realize. However, forecasting whether a stock index will rise or fall does not need to be so exact a numerical value. A few scholars noted the fact, but their systems do not yet work very well because different periods of a stock have different inherent laws. So, we should not depend on a single model or a set of parameters to solve the problem. In this paper, we developed a data-divider to divide a set of historical stock data into two parts according to rising period and falling period, training, respectively, two neural networks optimized by a GA. Above all, the data-divider enables us to avoid the most difficult problem, the effect of unexpected news, which could hardly be predicted. Experiments show that the accuracy of our method increases 20% compared to those of traditional methods.

  2. Accuracy of shock index versus ABC score to predict need for massive transfusion in trauma patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroll, Rebecca; Swift, David; Tatum, Danielle; Couch, Stuart; Heaney, Jiselle B; Llado-Farrulla, Monica; Zucker, Shana; Gill, Frances; Brown, Griffin; Buffin, Nicholas; Duchesne, Juan

    2018-01-01

    Various scoring systems have been developed to predict need for massive transfusion in traumatically injured patients. Assessments of Blood Consumption (ABC) score and Shock Index (SI) have been shown to be reliable predictors for Massive Transfusion Protocol (MTP) activation. However, no study has directly compared these two scoring systems to determine which is a better predictor for MTP activation. The primary objective was to determine whether ABC or SI better predicted the need for MTP in adult trauma patients with severe hemorrhage. This was a retrospective cohort study which included all injured patients who were trauma activations between January 1, 2009 and December 31, 2013 at an urban Level I trauma center. Patients ABC and SI were calculated for each patient. MTP was defined as need for >10 units PRBC transfusion within 24h of emergency department arrival. Sensitivity, specificity, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) were used to evaluate scoring systems' ability to predict effective MTP utilization. A total of 645 patients had complete data for analysis. Shock Index ≥1 had sensitivity of 67.7% (95% CI 49.5%-82.6%) and specificity of 81.3% (95% CI 78.0%-84.3%) for predicting MTP, and ABC score ≥2 had sensitivity of 47.0% (95% CI 29.8%-64.9%) and specificity of 89.8% (95% CI 87.2%-92.1%). AUROC analyses showed SI to be the strongest predictor followed by ABC score with AUROC values of 0.83 and 0.74, respectively. SI had a significantly greater sensitivity (P=0.035), but a significantly weaker specificity (PABC score. ABC score and Shock Index can both be used to predict need for massive transfusion in trauma patients, however SI is more sensitive and requires less technical skill than ABC score. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Genetic variation, inbreeding and chemical exposure—combined effects in wildlife and critical considerations for ecotoxicology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, A. Ross; Hosken, David J.; Balloux, François; Bickley, Lisa K.; LePage, Gareth; Owen, Stewart F.; Hetheridge, Malcolm J.; Tyler, Charles R.

    2009-01-01

    Exposure to environmental chemicals can have negative consequences for wildlife and even cause localized population extinctions. Resistance to chemical stress, however, can evolve and the mechanisms include desensitized target sites, reduced chemical uptake and increased metabolic detoxification and sequestration. Chemical resistance in wildlife populations can also arise independently of exposure and may be spread by gene flow between populations. Inbreeding—matings between closely related individuals—can have negative fitness consequences for natural populations, and there is evidence of inbreeding depression in many wildlife populations. In some cases, reduced fitness in inbred populations has been shown to be exacerbated under chemical stress. In chemical testing, both inbred and outbred laboratory animals are used and for human safety assessments, iso-genic strains (virtual clones) of mice and rats are often employed that reduce response variation, the number of animals used and associated costs. In contrast, for environmental risk assessment, strains of animals are often used that have been selectively bred to maintain heterozygosity, with the assumption that they are better able to predict adverse effects in wild, genetically variable, animals. This may not necessarily be the case however, as one outbred strain may not be representative of another or of a wild population. In this paper, we critically discuss relationships between genetic variation, inbreeding and chemical effects with the intention of seeking to support more effective chemical testing for the protection of wildlife. PMID:19833649

  4. Intraspecific Competition and Inbreeding Depression: Increased Competitive Effort by Inbred Males Is Costly to Outbred Opponents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, Jon; Smiseth, Per T

    2017-05-01

    A recent theoretical model suggests that intraspecific competition is an important determinant of the severity of inbreeding depression. The reason for this is that intraspecific competition is density dependent, leading to a stronger negative effect on inbred individuals if they are weaker competitors than outbred ones. In support of this prediction, previous empirical work shows that inbred individuals are weaker competitors than outbred ones and that intraspecific competition often exacerbates inbreeding depression. Here, we report an experiment on the burying beetle Nicrophorus vespilloides, in which we recorded the outcome of competition over a small vertebrate carcass between an inbred or outbred male resident caring for a brood and a size-matched inbred or outbred male intruder. We found that inbred males were more successful as intruders in taking over a carcass from a male resident and were injured more frequently as either residents or intruders. Furthermore, inbred males gained less mass during the breeding attempt and had a shorter adult life span than outbred males. Finally, successful resident males reared a substantially smaller brood comprised of lighter larvae when the intruder was inbred than when it was outbred. Our results shows that inbred males increased their competitive effort, thus contradicting previous work suggesting that inbred males are weaker competitors. Furthermore, our results shows that inbred intruders impose a greater cost to resident males, suggesting that outbred individuals can suffer fitness costs as a result of competition with inbred ones.

  5. Marker-assisted selection reduces expected inbreeding but can result in large effects of hitchhiking

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, L D; Sørensen, A C; Berg, P

    2010-01-01

    We used computer simulations to investigate to what extent true inbreeding, i.e. identity-by-descent, is affected by the use of marker-assisted selection (MAS) relative to traditional best linear unbiased predictions (BLUP) selection. The effect was studied by varying the heritability (h2 = 0.04 vs....... 0.25), the marker distance (MAS vs. selection on the gene, GAS), the favourable QTL allele effect (α = 0.118 vs. 0.236) and the initial frequency of the favourable QTL allele (p = 0.01 vs. 0.1) in a population resembling the breeding nucleus of a dairy cattle population. The simulated genome...... consisted of two chromosomes of 100 cM each in addition to a polygenic component. On chromosome 1, a biallelic QTL as well as 4 markers were simulated in linkage disequilibrium. Chromosome 2 was selectively neutral. The results showed that, while reducing pedigree estimated inbreeding, MAS and GAS did...

  6. A threshold-free summary index of prediction accuracy for censored time to event data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Yan; Zhou, Qian M; Li, Bingying; Cai, Hengrui; Chow, Eric J; Armstrong, Gregory T

    2018-02-08

    Prediction performance of a risk scoring system needs to be carefully assessed before its adoption in clinical practice. Clinical preventive care often uses risk scores to screen asymptomatic population. The primary clinical interest is to predict the risk of having an event by a prespecified future time t 0 . Accuracy measures such as positive predictive values have been recommended for evaluating the predictive performance. However, for commonly used continuous or ordinal risk score systems, these measures require a subjective cutoff threshold value that dichotomizes the risk scores. The need for a cutoff value created barriers for practitioners and researchers. In this paper, we propose a threshold-free summary index of positive predictive values that accommodates time-dependent event status and competing risks. We develop a nonparametric estimator and provide an inference procedure for comparing this summary measure between 2 risk scores for censored time to event data. We conduct a simulation study to examine the finite-sample performance of the proposed estimation and inference procedures. Lastly, we illustrate the use of this measure on a real data example, comparing 2 risk score systems for predicting heart failure in childhood cancer survivors. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  7. No evidence of inbreeding depression in sperm performance traits in wild song sparrows.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Losdat, Sylvain; Germain, Ryan R; Nietlisbach, Pirmin; Arcese, Peter; Reid, Jane M

    2018-02-01

    Inbreeding is widely hypothesized to shape mating systems and population persistence, but such effects will depend on which traits show inbreeding depression. Population and evolutionary consequences could be substantial if inbreeding decreases sperm performance and hence decreases male fertilization success and female fertility. However, the magnitude of inbreeding depression in sperm performance traits has rarely been estimated in wild populations experiencing natural variation in inbreeding. Further, the hypothesis that inbreeding could increase within-ejaculate variation in sperm traits and thereby further affect male fertilization success has not been explicitly tested. We used a wild pedigreed song sparrow ( Melospiza melodia ) population, where frequent extrapair copulations likely create strong postcopulatory competition for fertilization success, to quantify effects of male coefficient of inbreeding ( f ) on key sperm performance traits. We found no evidence of inbreeding depression in sperm motility, longevity, or velocity, and the within-ejaculate variance in sperm velocity did not increase with male f . Contrary to inferences from highly inbred captive and experimental populations, our results imply that moderate inbreeding will not necessarily constrain sperm performance in wild populations. Consequently, the widely observed individual-level and population-level inbreeding depression in male and female fitness may not stem from reduced sperm performance in inbred males.

  8. Estimating inbreeding rates in natural populations: Addressing the problem of incomplete pedigrees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Mark P.; Haig, Susan M.; Ballou, Jonathan D.; Steel, E. Ashley

    2017-01-01

    Understanding and estimating inbreeding is essential for managing threatened and endangered wildlife populations. However, determination of inbreeding rates in natural populations is confounded by incomplete parentage information. We present an approach for quantifying inbreeding rates for populations with incomplete parentage information. The approach exploits knowledge of pedigree configurations that lead to inbreeding coefficients of F = 0.25 and F = 0.125, allowing for quantification of Pr(I|k): the probability of observing pedigree I given the fraction of known parents (k). We developed analytical expressions under simplifying assumptions that define properties and behavior of inbreeding rate estimators for varying values of k. We demonstrated that inbreeding is overestimated if Pr(I|k) is not taken into consideration and that bias is primarily influenced by k. By contrast, our new estimator, incorporating Pr(I|k), is unbiased over a wide range of values of kthat may be observed in empirical studies. Stochastic computer simulations that allowed complex inter- and intragenerational inbreeding produced similar results. We illustrate the effects that accounting for Pr(I|k) can have in empirical data by revisiting published analyses of Arabian oryx (Oryx leucoryx) and Red deer (Cervus elaphus). Our results demonstrate that incomplete pedigrees are not barriers for quantifying inbreeding in wild populations. Application of our approach will permit a better understanding of the role that inbreeding plays in the dynamics of populations of threatened and endangered species and may help refine our understanding of inbreeding avoidance mechanisms in the wild.

  9. Macronutrient Balance and Dietary Glycemic Index in Pregnancy Predict Neonatal Body Composition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nathalie V. Kizirian

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The influence of maternal macronutrient balance and dietary glycemic index (GI on neonatal body composition has received little study. We hypothesized that the overall quantity and quality of macronutrients, particularly carbohydrate, in the maternal diet could have trimester-specific effects on neonatal growth and body composition in women at risk of gestational diabetes. Maternal diet was assessed using 3-day food records in mid (n = 96 and late (n = 88 pregnancy as part of the GI Baby 3 study. Neonatal body composition was assessed by air-displacement plethysmography within 48 h of birth, adjusted for length, and expressed as fat mass index (FMI and fat-free mass index (FFMI. In mid pregnancy, higher maternal intake of carbohydrate energy was negatively correlated with infant FFMI (p = 0.037. In late pregnancy, higher dietary GI was associated with lower FFMI (p = 0.010 and higher carbohydrate energy predicted lower FMI (p = 0.034. Higher fat intake (%E and saturated fat, but not protein, also predicted neonatal body composition (higher FFMI in mid pregnancy and higher FMI in late pregnancy. Depending on pregnancy stage, a high carbohydrate-low fat diet, particularly from high glycemic sources, may reduce neonatal indices of both lean mass and adiposity.

  10. Starch digestibility and predicted glycemic index in the bread fortified with pomelo (Citrus maxima) fruit segments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reshmi, S K; Sudha, M L; Shashirekha, M N

    2017-12-15

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the starch digestibility and predicted glycemic index in breads incorporated with pomelo fruit (Citrus maxima) segments. Volume of the white and brown breads supplemented with pomelo fresh segments increased, while the crumb firmness decreased. Bread with 20% fresh and 5% dry pomelo segments were sensorily acceptable. Bioactive components such as phenolics, flavonoids, naringin and carotenoids were retained to a greater extent in bread containing dry pomelo segments. The pomelo incorporated bread had higher levels of resistant starch fractions (3.87-10.96%) with low predicted glycemic index (62.97-53.13%), despite their higher total starch (69.87-75.47%) content compared to control bread. Thus pomelo segments in the product formulations lowered the glycemic index probably by inhibiting carbohydrate hydrolyzing enzyme activity which could be attributed to naringin. Hence fortified bread prepared from pomelo fruit segment is recommended to gain nutritional value and to decrease the risk of diabetes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Development of a risk index for the prediction of chronic post-surgical pain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Althaus, A; Hinrichs-Rocker, A; Chapman, R; Arránz Becker, O; Lefering, R; Simanski, C; Weber, F; Moser, K-H; Joppich, R; Trojan, S; Gutzeit, N; Neugebauer, E

    2012-07-01

    The incidence of chronic post-surgical pain (CPSP) after various common operations is 10% to 50%. Identification of patients at risk of developing chronic pain, and the management and prevention of CPSP remains inadequate. The aim of this study was to develop an easily applicable risk index for the detection of high-risk patients that takes into account the multifactorial aetiology of CPSP. A comprehensive item pool was derived from a systematic literature search. Items that turned out significant in bivariate analyses were then analysed multivariately, using logistic regression analyses. The items that yielded significant predictors in the multivariate analyses were compiled into an index. The cut-off score for a high risk of developing CPSP with an optimal trade-off between sensitivity and specificity was identified. The data of 150 patients who underwent different types of surgery were included in the analyses. Six months after surgery, 43.3% of the patients reported CPSP. Five predictors multivariately contributed to the prediction of CPSP: capacity overload, preoperative pain in the operating field, other chronic preoperative pain, post-surgical acute pain and co-morbid stress symptoms. These results suggest that several easily assessable preoperative and perioperative patient characteristics can predict a patient's risk of developing CPSP. The risk index may help caregivers to tailor individual pain management and to assist high-risk patients with pain coping. © 2011 European Federation of International Association for the Study of Pain Chapters.

  12. Relationship between depression with FEV1 percent predicted and BODE index in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunawan, H.; Hanum, H.; Abidin, A.; Hanida, W.

    2018-03-01

    WHO reported more than 3 million people die from COPD in 2012 and are expected to rank third after cardiovascular and cancer diseases in the future. Recent studies reported the prevalence of depression in COPD patients was higher than in control group. So, it’s important for clinicians to understand the relationship of depression symptoms with clinical aspects of COPD. For determining the association of depression symptoms with lung function and BODE index in patients with stable COPD, a cross-sectional study was in 98 stable COPD outpatients from January to June 2017. Data were analyzed using Independent t-test, Mann-Whitney test, and Spearman’s rank correlation. COPD patients with depression had higher mMRC scores, and lower FEV1 percent predicted, and then 6-Minutes Walk Test compared to those without depression. There was a moderate strength of correlation (r=-0.43) between depression symptoms and FEV1 percent predicted, and strong correlation (r=0.614) between depression symptoms and BODE index. It indicates that BODE index is more accurate to describe symptoms of depression in COPD patients.

  13. Evaluation of Optimum Genetic Contribution Theory to Control Inbreeding While Maximizing Genetic Response

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.-H. Oh

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Inbreeding is the mating of relatives that produce progeny having more homozygous alleles than non-inbred animals. Inbreeding increases numbers of recessive alleles, which is often associated with decreased performance known as inbreeding depression. The magnitude of inbreeding depression depends on the level of inbreeding in the animal. Level of inbreeding is expressed by the inbreeding coefficient. One breeding goal in livestock is uniform productivity while maintaining acceptable inbreeding levels, especially keeping inbreeding less than 20%. However, in closed herds without the introduction of new genetic sources high levels of inbreeding over time are unavoidable. One method that increases selection response and minimizes inbreeding is selection of individuals by weighting estimated breeding values with average relationships among individuals. Optimum genetic contribution theory (OGC uses relationships among individuals as weighting factors. The algorithm is as follows: i Identify the individual having the best EBV; ii Calculate average relationships ( r j ¯ between selected and candidates; iii Select the individual having the best EBV adjusted for average relationships using the weighting factor k, E B V * = E B V j ( 1 - k r j ¯ . iv Repeat process until the number of individuals selected equals number required. The objective of this study was to compare simulated results based on OGC selection under different conditions over 30 generations. Individuals (n = 110 were generated for the base population with pseudo random numbers of N~ (0, 3, ten were assumed male, and the remainder female. Each male was mated to ten females, and every female was assumed to have 5 progeny resulting in 500 individuals in the following generation. Results showed the OGC algorithm effectively controlled inbreeding and maintained consistent increases in selection response. Difference in breeding values between selection with OGC algorithm and by EBV only was 8

  14. A strategy analysis for genetic association studies with known inbreeding

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    del Giacco Stefano

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Association studies consist in identifying the genetic variants which are related to a specific disease through the use of statistical multiple hypothesis testing or segregation analysis in pedigrees. This type of studies has been very successful in the case of Mendelian monogenic disorders while it has been less successful in identifying genetic variants related to complex diseases where the insurgence depends on the interactions between different genes and the environment. The current technology allows to genotype more than a million of markers and this number has been rapidly increasing in the last years with the imputation based on templates sets and whole genome sequencing. This type of data introduces a great amount of noise in the statistical analysis and usually requires a great number of samples. Current methods seldom take into account gene-gene and gene-environment interactions which are fundamental especially in complex diseases. In this paper we propose to use a non-parametric additive model to detect the genetic variants related to diseases which accounts for interactions of unknown order. Although this is not new to the current literature, we show that in an isolated population, where the most related subjects share also most of their genetic code, the use of additive models may be improved if the available genealogical tree is taken into account. Specifically, we form a sample of cases and controls with the highest inbreeding by means of the Hungarian method, and estimate the set of genes/environmental variables, associated with the disease, by means of Random Forest. Results We have evidence, from statistical theory, simulations and two applications, that we build a suitable procedure to eliminate stratification between cases and controls and that it also has enough precision in identifying genetic variants responsible for a disease. This procedure has been successfully used for the beta-thalassemia, which is

  15. Trait-specific consequences of inbreeding on adaptive phenotypic plasticity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schou, Mads Fristrup; Kristensen, Torsten Nygaard; Loeschcke, Volker

    2015-01-01

    Environmental changes may stress organisms and stimulate an adaptive phenotypic response. Effects of inbreeding often interact with the environment and can decrease fitness of inbred individuals exposed to stress more so than that of outbred individuals. Such an interaction may stem from a reduced...... ability of inbred individuals to respond plastically to environmental stress; however, this hypothesis has rarely been tested. In this study, we mimicked the genetic constitution of natural inbred populations by rearing replicate Drosophila melanogaster populations for 25 generations at a reduced...... shape across temperatures in inbred compared to control populations. Given that the norms of reaction for the noninbred control populations are adaptive, we conclude that a reduced ability to induce an adaptive phenotypic response to temperature changes is not a general consequence of inbreeding...

  16. Inbreeding, microsatellite heterozygosity, and morphological traits in Lipizzan horses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curik, I; Zechner, P; Sölkner, J; Achmann, R; Bodo, I; Dovc, P; Kavar, T; Marti, E; Brem, G

    2003-01-01

    While the negative effects of inbreeding and reduced heterozygosity on fecundity and survival are well established, only a few investigations have been carried out concerning their influence on morphological traits. This topic is of particular interest for a small and closed population such as the Lipizzan horse. Thus, 27 morphological traits were measured in 360 Lipizzan mares and were regressed on the individual inbreeding coefficients, as well as on the individual heterozygosity and mean squared distances (mean d(2)) between microsatellite alleles within an individual. Both individual heterozygosity and mean d(2) were based on 17 microsatellite loci dispersed over 14 chromosomes. The results obtained by multivariate analysis reveal significant effects of stud (P morphological traits were observed in the Lipizzan horse.

  17. Variation in parent–offspring kinship in socially monogamous systems with extra‐pair reproduction and inbreeding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reid, Jane M.; Bocedi, Greta; Nietlisbach, Pirmin; Duthie, A. Bradley; Wolak, Matthew E.; Gow, Elizabeth A.; Arcese, Peter

    2016-01-01

    Female extra‐pair reproduction in socially monogamous systems is predicted to cause cuckolded socially‐paired males to conditionally reduce paternal care, causing selection against extra‐pair reproduction and underlying polyandry. However, existing models and empirical studies have not explicitly considered that cuckolded males might be related to their socially‐paired female and/or to her extra‐pair mate, and therefore be related to extra‐pair offspring that they did not sire but could rear. Selection against paternal care, and hence against extra‐pair reproduction, might then be weakened. We derive metrics that quantify allele‐sharing between within‐pair and extra‐pair offspring and their mother and her socially‐paired male in terms of coefficients of kinship and inbreeding. We use song sparrow (Melospiza melodia) paternity and pedigree data to quantify these metrics, and thereby quantify the joint effects of extra‐pair reproduction and inbreeding on a brood's total allelic value to its socially‐paired parents. Cuckolded male song sparrows were almost always detectably related to extra‐pair offspring they reared. Consequently, although brood allelic value decreased substantially following female extra‐pair reproduction, this decrease was reduced by within‐pair and extra‐pair reproduction among relatives. Such complex variation in kinship within nuclear families should be incorporated into models considering coevolutionary dynamics of extra‐pair reproduction, parental care, and inbreeding. PMID:27174154

  18. Sex-biased natal dispersal and inbreeding avoidance in American black bears as revealed by spatial genetic analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costello, Cecily M; Creel, Scott R; Kalinowski, Steven T; Vu, Ninh V; Quigley, Howard B

    2008-11-01

    We tested the hypothesis that sex-biased natal dispersal reduces close inbreeding in American black bears, a solitary species that exhibits nearly complete male dispersal and female philopatry. Using microsatellite DNA and spatial data from reproductively mature bears (>or= 4 years old), we examined the spatial genetic structure of two distinct populations in New Mexico from 1993 to 2000. As predicted, relatedness (r) and the frequency of close relationships (parent-offspring or full siblings) decreased with distance among female dyads, but little change was observed among male or opposite-sex dyads. Neighbouring females were more closely related than neighbouring males. The potential for inbreeding was low. Most opposite-sex pairs that lived sufficiently close to facilitate mating were unrelated, and few were close relatives. We found no evidence that bears actively avoided inbreeding in their selection of mates from this nearby pool, as mean r and relationship frequencies did not differ between potential and actual mating pairs (determined by parentage analysis). These basic patterns were apparent in both study areas despite a nearly two-fold difference in density. However, the sex bias in dispersal was less pronounced in the lower-density area, based on proportions of bears with male and female relatives residing nearby. This result suggests that male bears may respond to reduced competition by decreasing their rate or distance of dispersal. Evidence supports the hypothesis that inbreeding avoidance is achieved by means of male-biased dispersal but also indicates that competition (for mates or resources) modifies dispersal patterns.

  19. Preoperative Nutritional Risk Index to predict postoperative survival time in primary liver cancer patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bo, Yacong; Yao, Mingjie; Zhang, Ling; Bekalo, Wolde; Lu, Weiquan; Lu, Quanjun

    2015-01-01

    We designed this study to determine the predictive value of Nutritional Risk Index (NRI) for postoperative survival time of patients who had undergone hepatectomy for primary liver cancer. The 620 patients who underwent hepatectomy for primary liver cancer (PLC) in the Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, Cancer Hospital of Henan Province, Zhengzhou, China from December 1, 2008 to December 1, 2012 were followed up. A nutritional risk index (NRI) was used to screen the patients with malnutrition (NRINRI values>100) patients had longer postoperative survival time compared with malnourished patients. NRI values>100 was sig-nificantly associated with longer postoperative survival time. Cox proportional hazards model showed that NRI was an independent predictor of postoperative survival time and that NRI varied inversely with the risk of death. The patients with NRI values>100 survived longer than those with NRI values

  20. Prediction of excess molar volumes of selected binary mixtures from refractive index data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vuksanović Jelena M.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The excess molar volumes of twenty two binary mixtures containing various groups of organic compounds: alcohols (ethanol, 1-propanol, 1,2-propanediol, 1,3-propanediol and glycerol, ketone (acetone, ester (butyl lactate, lactam (N-methyl-2-pyrrolidone, PEGs (PEG 200, PEG 400 and aromatics (benzene, toluene and pyridine were predicted from the refractive index data, using three types of equations coupled with several mixing rules for refractive index calculations: the Lorentz-Lorenz, Dale-Gladstone, Eykman, Arago-Biot, Newton, and Oster. The obtained results were analysed in terms of the applied equation and mixing rule and the nature of interactions between the mixtures’ components. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. 172063

  1. Inbreeding effects on palmar dermatoglyphic characters in three endogamous social groups of West Bengal, India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banik, S Datta

    2014-02-01

    The present study reports inbreeding effects on mean palmar dermatoglyphic characteristics: triradial count on palm, maximal atd angle, adt angle, td ridge count, ab ridge count, main line index (MLI) and ab ridge breadth. Samples were drawn from adult males belonging to three endogamous sections representing Hindu caste Telaga of Kharagpur (West Midnapore), Ansari Muslims of Nandigram (East Midnapore) and Sheik-Sunni Muslims of Braddhaman in West Bengal, India. Consistent trend of higher mean triradial number, adt angle, and lower mean td ridge count, ab ridge count, and ab ridge breadth was observed in inbred sections compared to their non-inbred relatives in three social groups. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

  2. Combining abilities and inbreeding depression in commercial maize hybrids

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henrique José Camargo Senhorinho

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to evaluate the combining ability and inbreeding depression of commercial maize hybrids for agricultural traits. Twenty-two commercial maize hybrids, 96 F1 crosses from a partial diallel scheme, 22 S1 populations and 4 controls were evaluated in a 12x12 simples square lattice experimental setup, totaling 144 treatments, in the municipality of Sabáudia (PR, Brazil, for harvests from 2011/2012 and 2012/2013. Three traits were evaluated: grain yield, plant height and ear height. The Griffing method (1956 was applied for the evaluation of the general combining ability (GCA and specific combining ability (SCA. The 30B39, 30K64 and 30B30 hybrids showed increased yield, 30F53 and P1630 showed reduced plant height and AG9040 and AG7010 showed reduced ear height. These hybrids can be recommended for the extraction of inbred lines and formation of composites followed by intrapopulation selection. The combinations 30B39 x AG8088, 30B39 x AG9045 and P1630 x AG8021 showed desirable SCA effects for grain yield, plant height and ear height and are recommended for use in reciprocal recurrent selection programs. High magnitudes of inbreeding depression were verified for yield and lower values for inbreeding depression for plant and ear heights. Thus, strategies are recommended for interpopulation breeding accompanied by inbred lines extraction.

  3. An inbreeding model of associative overdominance during a population bottleneck.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bierne, N; Tsitrone, A; David, P

    2000-08-01

    Associative overdominance, the fitness difference between heterozygotes and homozygotes at a neutral locus, is classically described using two categories of models: linkage disequilibrium in small populations or identity disequilibrium in infinite, partially selfing populations. In both cases, only equilibrium situations have been considered. In the present study, associative overdominance is related to the distribution of individual inbreeding levels (i.e., genomic autozygosity). Our model integrates the effects of physical linkage and variation in inbreeding history among individual pedigrees. Hence, linkage and identity disequilibrium, traditionally presented as alternatives, are summarized within a single framework. This allows studying nonequilibrium situations in which both occur simultaneously. The model is applied to the case of an infinite population undergoing a sustained population bottleneck. The effects of bottleneck size, mating system, marker gene diversity, deleterious genomic mutation parameters, and physical linkage are evaluated. Bottlenecks transiently generate much larger associative overdominance than observed in equilibrium finite populations and represent a plausible explanation of empirical results obtained, for instance, in marine species. Moreover, the main origin of associative overdominance is random variation in individual inbreeding whereas physical linkage has little effect.

  4. Pre-operative Tei Index does not predict left ventricular function immediately after mitral valve repair

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chirojit Mukherjee

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Echocardiographic assessment of systolic left ventricular (LV function in patients with severe mitral regurgitation (MR undergoing mitral valve (MV repair can be challenging because the measurement of ejection fraction (EF or fractional area change (FAC in pathological states is of questionable value. The aim of our study was to evaluate the usefulness of the pre-operative Tei Index in predicting left ventricular EF or FAC immediately after MV repair. One hundred and thirty patients undergoing MV repair with sinus rhythm pre- and post-operatively were enrolled in this prospective study. Twenty-six patients were excluded due to absence of sinus rhythm post-operatively. Standard transesophageal examination(IE 33,Philips,Netherlands was performed before and after cardiopulmonary bypass according to the guidelines of the ASE/SCA. FAC was determined in the transgastric midpapillary short-axis view. LV EF was measured in the midesophageal four- and two-chamber view. For calculation of the Tei Index, the deep transgastric and the midesophageal four-chamber view were used. Statistical analysis was performed with SPSS 17.0. values are expressed as mean with standard deviation. LV FAC and EF decreased significantly after MV repair (FAC: 56±12% vs. 50±14%, P<0.001; EF: 58±11 vs. 50±12Έ P<0.001. The Tei Index decreased from 0.66±0.23 before MV repair to 0.41±0.19 afterwards (P<0.001. No relationship between pre-operative Tei Index and post-operative FAC or post-operative EF were found (FAC: r=−0.061, P=0.554; EF: r=−0.29, P=0.771. Conclusion: Pre-operative Tei Index is not a good predictor for post-operative FAC and EF in patients undergoing MV repair.

  5. Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis: Gender-Age-Physiology Index Stage for Predicting Future Lung Function Decline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salisbury, Margaret L; Xia, Meng; Zhou, Yueren; Murray, Susan; Tayob, Nabihah; Brown, Kevin K; Wells, Athol U; Schmidt, Shelley L; Martinez, Fernando J; Flaherty, Kevin R

    2016-02-01

    Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis is a progressive lung disease with variable course. The Gender-Age-Physiology (GAP) Index and staging system uses clinical variables to stage mortality risk. It is unknown whether clinical staging predicts future decline in pulmonary function. We assessed whether the GAP stage predicts future pulmonary function decline and whether interval pulmonary function change predicts mortality after accounting for stage. Patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (N = 657) were identified retrospectively at three tertiary referral centers, and baseline GAP stages were assessed. Mixed models were used to describe average trajectories of FVC and diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide (Dlco). Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess whether declines in pulmonary function ≥ 10% in 6 months predict mortality after accounting for GAP stage. Over a 2-year period, GAP stage was not associated with differences in yearly lung function decline. After accounting for stage, a 10% decrease in FVC or Dlco over 6 months independently predicted death or transplantation (FVC hazard ratio, 1.37; Dlco hazard ratio, 1.30; both, P ≤ .03). Patients with GAP stage 2 with declining pulmonary function experienced a survival profile similar to patients with GAP stage 3, with 1-year event-free survival of 59.3% (95% CI, 49.4-67.8) vs 56.9% (95% CI, 42.2-69.1). Baseline GAP stage predicted death or lung transplantation but not the rate of future pulmonary function decline. After accounting for GAP stage, a decline of ≥ 10% over 6 months independently predicted death or lung transplantation. Copyright © 2016 American College of Chest Physicians. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Development and validation of an ICD-10-based disability predictive index for patients admitted to hospitals with trauma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wada, Tomoki; Yasunaga, Hideo; Yamana, Hayato; Matsui, Hiroki; Fushimi, Kiyohide; Morimura, Naoto

    2018-03-01

    There was no established disability predictive measurement for patients with trauma that could be used in administrative claims databases. The aim of the present study was to develop and validate a diagnosis-based disability predictive index for severe physical disability at discharge using the International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision (ICD-10) coding. This retrospective observational study used the Diagnosis Procedure Combination database in Japan. Patients who were admitted to hospitals with trauma and discharged alive from 01 April 2010 to 31 March 2015 were included. Pediatric patients under 15 years old were excluded. Data for patients admitted to hospitals from 01 April 2010 to 31 March 2013 was used for development of a disability predictive index (derivation cohort), while data for patients admitted to hospitals from 01 April 2013 to 31 March 2015 was used for the internal validation (validation cohort). The outcome of interest was severe physical disability defined as the Barthel Index score of disability predictive index for each patient was defined as the sum of the scores. The predictive performance of the index was validated using the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis in the validation cohort. The derivation cohort included 1,475,158 patients, while the validation cohort included 939,659 patients. Of the 939,659 patients, 235,382 (25.0%) were discharged with severe physical disability. The c-statistics of the disability predictive index was 0.795 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.794-0.795), while that of a model using the disability predictive index and patient baseline characteristics was 0.856 (95% CI 0.855-0.857). Severe physical disability at discharge may be well predicted with patient age, sex, CCI score, and the diagnosis-based disability predictive index in patients admitted to hospitals with trauma. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. The predictive value of the baseline Oswestry Disability Index in lumbar disc arthroplasty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deutsch, Harel

    2010-06-01

    The goal of the study was to determine patient factors predictive of good outcome after lumbar disc arthroplasty. Specifically, the paper examines the relationship of the preoperative Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) to patient outcome at 1 year. The study is a retrospective review of 20 patients undergoing a 1-level lumbar disc arthroplasty at the author's institution between 2004 and 2008. All data were collected prospectively. Data included the ODI, visual analog scale scores, and patient demographics. All patients underwent a 1-level disc arthroplasty at L4-5 or L5-S1. The patients were divided into 2 groups based on their baseline ODI. Patients with an ODI between 38 and 59 demonstrated better outcomes with lumbar disc arthroplasty. Only 1 (20%) of 5 patients with a baseline ODI higher than 60 reported a good outcome. In contrast, 13 (87%) of 15 patients with an ODI between 38 and 59 showed a good outcome (p = 0.03). The negative predictive value of using ODI > 60 is 60% in patients who are determined to be candidates for lumbar arthroplasty. Lumbar arthroplasty is very effective in some patients. Other patients do not improve after surgery. The baseline ODI results are predictive of outcome in patients selected for lumbar disc arthroplasty. A baseline ODI > 60 is predictive of poor outcome. A high ODI may be indicative of psychosocial overlay.

  8. Prediction of water quality index in constructed wetlands using support vector machine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammadpour, Reza; Shaharuddin, Syafiq; Chang, Chun Kiat; Zakaria, Nor Azazi; Ab Ghani, Aminuddin; Chan, Ngai Weng

    2015-04-01

    Poor water quality is a serious problem in the world which threatens human health, ecosystems, and plant/animal life. Prediction of surface water quality is a main concern in water resource and environmental systems. In this research, the support vector machine and two methods of artificial neural networks (ANNs), namely feed forward back propagation (FFBP) and radial basis function (RBF), were used to predict the water quality index (WQI) in a free constructed wetland. Seventeen points of the wetland were monitored twice a month over a period of 14 months, and an extensive dataset was collected for 11 water quality variables. A detailed comparison of the overall performance showed that prediction of the support vector machine (SVM) model with coefficient of correlation (R(2)) = 0.9984 and mean absolute error (MAE) = 0.0052 was either better or comparable with neural networks. This research highlights that the SVM and FFBP can be successfully employed for the prediction of water quality in a free surface constructed wetland environment. These methods simplify the calculation of the WQI and reduce substantial efforts and time by optimizing the computations.

  9. Amniotic fluid index and estimated fetal weight for prediction of fetal macrosomia: a prospective observational study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    El Khouly, Nabih I; Elkelani, Osama A; Saleh, Said A

    2017-08-01

    The purpose of this study was to assess the value of combining the estimated fetal weight (EFW) and amniotic fluid index (AFI) measured in term patients early in labor with intact membranes for prediction of macrosomia. In a single center, prospective observational study, 600 patients in the first stage of labor before rupture of membranes in whom ultrasonography was performed to measure AFI and EFW, and these data were analyzed statistically to evaluate prediction of fetal macrosomia. Macrosomia occurred in 64 cases (10.6%). The AFI was significantly higher in the macrosomic group (p = 0.001). It was noted that the area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for EFW was 0.93 and that of AFI was 0.67. Based on suggested combined EFW and AFI cutoffs of 4000 g and 164 mm, respectively, the positive predictive value (PPV) for combined parameters (92.3%) was higher than that of EFW (75%) and that of AFI (27%) and the likelihood ratio for combination (93.7%) was higher than that of EFW (24.7%) and that of AFI (21%). Combined use of EFW and AFI improves prediction of macrosomia at birth rather than the EFW alone.

  10. Prediction of immediate postoperative pain using the analgesia/nociception index: a prospective observational study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boselli, E; Bouvet, L; Bégou, G; Dabouz, R; Davidson, J; Deloste, J-Y; Rahali, N; Zadam, A; Allaouchiche, B

    2014-04-01

    The analgesia/nociception index (ANI) is derived from heart rate variability, ranging from 0 (maximal nociception) to 100 (maximal analgesia), to reflect the analgesia/nociception balance during general anaesthesia. This should be correlated with immediate postoperative pain in the post-anaesthesia care unit (PACU). The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of ANI measured at arousal from general anaesthesia to predict immediate postoperative pain on arrival in PACU. Two hundred patients undergoing ear, nose, and throat or lower limb orthopaedic surgery with general anaesthesia using an inhalational agent and remifentanil were included in this prospective observational study. The ANI was measured immediately before tracheal extubation and pain intensity was assessed within 10 min of arrival in PACU using a 0-10 numerical rating scale (NRS). The relationship between ANI and NRS was assessed using linear regression. A receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to evaluate the performance of ANI to predict NRS>3. A negative linear relationship was observed between ANI immediately before extubation and NRS on arrival in PACU. Using a threshold of 3 were both 86% with 92% negative predictive value, corresponding to an area under the ROC curve of 0.89. The measurement of ANI immediately before extubation after inhalation-remifentanil anaesthesia was significantly associated with pain intensity on arrival in PACU. The performance of ANI for the prediction of immediate postoperative pain is good and may assist physicians in optimizing acute pain management. ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01796249.

  11. Nutritional Risk Index predicts mortality in hospitalized advanced heart failure patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adejumo, Oluwayemisi L; Koelling, Todd M; Hummel, Scott L

    2015-11-01

    Hospitalized advanced heart failure (HF) patients are at high risk for malnutrition and death. The Nutritional Risk Index (NRI) is a simple, well-validated tool for identifying patients at risk for nutrition-related complications. We hypothesized that, in advanced HF patients from the ESCAPE (Evaluation Study of Congestive Heart Failure and Pulmonary Artery Catheterization Effectiveness) trial, the NRI would improve risk discrimination for 6-month all-cause mortality. We analyzed the 160 ESCAPE index admission survivors with complete follow-up and NRI data, calculated as follows: NRI = (1.519 × discharge serum albumin [in g/dl]) + (41.7 × discharge weight [in kg] / ideal body weight [in kg]); as in previous studies, if discharge weight is greater than ideal body weight (IBW), this ratio was set to 1. The previously developed ESCAPE mortality model includes: age; 6-minute walk distance; cardiopulmonary resuscitation/mechanical ventilation; discharge β-blocker prescription and diuretic dose; and discharge serum sodium, blood urea nitrogen and brain natriuretic peptide levels. We used Cox proportional hazards modeling for the outcome of 6-month all-cause mortality. Thirty of 160 patients died within 6 months of hospital discharge. The median NRI was 96 (IQR 91 to 102), reflecting mild-to-moderate nutritional risk. The NRI independently predicted 6-month mortality, with adjusted HR 0.60 (95% CI 0.39 to 0.93, p = 0.02) per 10 units, and increased Harrell's c-index from 0.74 to 0.76 when added to the ESCAPE model. Body mass index and NRI at hospital admission did not predict 6-month mortality. The discharge NRI was most helpful in patients with high (≥ 20%) predicted mortality by the ESCAPE model, where observed 6-month mortality was 38% in patients with NRI NRI > 100 (p = 0.04). The NRI is a simple tool that can improve mortality risk stratification at hospital discharge in hospitalized patients with advanced HF. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  12. Evaluation of renal resistive index in cirrhotic patients for predicting the hepatirenal syndrome

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baek, Seung Yon; Kim, Hyae young; Yi, Sun Young [Ewha WoMans Univ. Mokdong Hospital, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    1996-04-01

    To evaluate the usefulness of renal resistive index(RI) in patients with liver cirrhosis as an indicator for predicting hepatorenal syndrome. Renal RIs of thirty cirrhotic patients were analyzed using the gray-scale and Doppler ultrasonograms. As a control group, eight normal subjects were included. Renal RIs were measured at three sites of interlobar or arcuate arteries of both kidneys. The patients were divided into three groups (A, B, or C) according to the Child-Turcotte-Pugh classification and their serum BUN and creatinine levels were compared. We determined whether RIs of normal controls differed from those of cirrhotic patients or whether RIs of cirrhotic patients correlated with the Child-Turcotte-Pugh classification or BUN and creatinine levels. Mean RIs(0.63 {+-}0.33) of normal subjects were statistically different from those(0.67 {+-} 0.05) of cirrhotic patients(P=0.009). RIs of group A(n=6), B(n=9) and C(n=15) were 0.65 {+-} 0.03, 0.65 {+-} 0.04 and 0.70 {+-} 0.04, respectively. The ANOVA test revealed statistically significant differences between the three groups(F ratio=4.472, P=0.021). RIs did not correlate with BUN or creatinine levels. RI could be used as an index for predicting hepatorenal syndrome before the renal function becomes impaired.

  13. Does the Transmissible Liability Index (TLI) assessed in late childhood predict suicidal symptoms at young adulthood?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cornelius, Jack R; Kirisci, Levent; Reynolds, Maureen; Vanyukov, Michael; Tarter, Ralph

    2015-05-01

    Our previous work demonstrated that the Transmissible Liability Index (TLI), an instrument designed as an index of liability for substance use disorder (SUD), is associated with risk of substance use disorder. This longitudinal study assessed whether TLI measured in 10-12-year-olds (late childhood) predicts suicidal behavior from age 12-14 (preadolescence) to age 25 (young adulthood). We hypothesized that TLI would predict number and severity of suicide attempts. Subjects were sons of men who had lifetime history of SUD (n = 250), called the High Average Risk (HAR) group, and sons of men with no lifetime history of a SUD (n = 250), called the Low Average Risk (LAR) group. The TLI was delineated at baseline (age 10-12), and age-specific versions were administered at 12-14, 16, 19, 22, and 25 years of age. TLI was significantly associated with number and severity of lifetime suicide attempts. These findings confirm the hypothesis that TLI assessed at late childhood is a predictor of frequency and severity of suicidal behavior from preadolescence to young adulthood.

  14. Prediction of the Dst index from solar wind parameters by a neural network method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watanabe, S.; Sagawa, E.; Ohtaka, K.; Shimazu, H.

    2002-12-01

    Using the Elman-type neural network technique, operational models are constructed that predict the Dst index two hours in advance. The input data consist of real-time solar wind velocity, density, and magnetic field data obtained by the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft since May 1998 (http://www2.crl.go.jp/uk/uk223/service/nnw/index.html). During the period from February to October 1998, eleven storms occurred with minimum Dst values below -80 nT. For ten of these storms the differences between the predicted minimum Dst and the minimum Dst calculated from ground-based magnetometer data were less than 23%. For the remaining one storm (beginning on 19 October 1998) the difference was 48%. The discrepancy is likely to stem from a imperfect correlation between the solar wind parameters near ACE and those near the earth. While the IMF Bz remains to be the most important parameter, other parameters do have their effects. For instance, Dst appears to be enhanced when the azimuthal direction of IMF is toward the sun. A trapezoid-shaped increase in the solar wind density enhances the main phase Dst by almost 10% compared with the case of no density increase. Velocity effects appear to be stronger than the density effects. Our operational models have, in principle, no limitations in applicability with respect to storm intensity.

  15. AE Geomagnetic Index Predictability for High Speed Solar Wind Streams: A Wavelet Decomposition Technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guarnieri, Fernando L.; Tsurutani, Bruce T.; Hajra, Rajkumar; Echer, Ezequiel; Gonzalez, Walter D.; Mannucci, Anthony J.

    2014-01-01

    High speed solar wind streams cause geomagnetic activity at Earth. In this study we have applied a wavelet interactive filtering and reconstruction technique on the solar wind magnetic field components and AE index series to allowed us to investigate the relationship between the two. The IMF Bz component was found as the most significant solar wind parameter responsible by the control of the AE activity. Assuming magnetic reconnection associated to southward directed Bz is the main mechanism transferring energy into the magnetosphere, we adjust parameters to forecast the AE index. The adjusted routine is able to forecast AE, based only on the Bz measured at the L1 Lagrangian point. This gives a prediction approximately 30-70 minutes in advance of the actual geomagnetic activity. The correlation coefficient between the observed AE data and the forecasted series reached values higher than 0.90. In some cases the forecast reproduced particularities observed in the signal very well.The high correlation values observed and the high efficacy of the forecasting can be taken as a confirmation that reconnection is the main physical mechanism responsible for the energy transfer during HILDCAAs. The study also shows that the IMF Bz component low frequencies are most important for AE prediction.

  16. Purging of inbreeding depression within the Irish Holstein-Friesian population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mc Parland Sinéad

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The objective of this study was to investigate whether inbreeding depression in milk production or fertility performance has been partially purged due to selection within the Irish Holstein-Friesian population. Classical, ancestral (i.e., the inbreeding of an individual's ancestors according to two different formulae and new inbreeding coefficients (i.e., part of the classical inbreeding coefficient that is not accounted for by ancestral inbreeding were computed for all animals. The effect of each coefficient on 305-day milk, fat and protein yield as well as calving interval, age at first calving and survival to second lactation was investigated. Ancestral inbreeding accounting for all common ancestors in the pedigree had a positive effect on 305-day milk and protein yield, increasing yields by 4.85 kg and 0.12 kg, respectively. However, ancestral inbreeding accounting only for those common ancestors, which contribute to the classical inbreeding coefficient had a negative effect on all milk production traits decreasing 305-day milk, fat and protein yields by -8.85 kg, -0.53 kg and -0.33 kg, respectively. Classical, ancestral and new inbreeding generally had a detrimental effect on fertility and survival traits. From this study, it appears that Irish Holstein-Friesians have purged some of their genetic load for milk production through many years of selection based on production alone, while fertility, which has been less intensely selected for in the population demonstrates no evidence of purging.

  17. Inbreeding avoidance in spiders: evidence for rescue effect in fecundity of female spiders with outbreeding opportunity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bilde, T.; Maklakov, A.A.; Schilling, Nadia

    2007-01-01

    decline in fecundity and hatching rates of eggs. This effect was mitigated by complete recovery in fecundity in the sib-nonsib treatment, whereas no rescue effect was detected in the hatching success of eggs. The rescue effect is best explained by post-mating discrimination against kin via differential...... male nonsibs; one male sib and one male nonsib. We assessed the effect of mating treatment on fecundity and hatching success of eggs after one and three generations of inbreeding. Inbreeding depression in F1 was not sufficient to detect inbreeding avoidance. In F3, inbreeding depression caused a major...

  18. Inbreeding among Caribbean Hispanics from the Dominican Republic and its effects on risk of Alzheimer disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vardarajan, Badri N; Schaid, Daniel J; Reitz, Christiane; Lantigua, Rafael; Medrano, Martin; Jiménez-Velázquez, Ivonne Z; Lee, Joseph H; Ghani, Mahdi; Rogaeva, Ekaterina; St George-Hyslop, Peter; Mayeux, Richard P

    2015-08-01

    Inbreeding can be associated with a modification of disease risk due to excess homozygosity of recessive alleles affecting a wide range of phenotypes. We estimated the inbreeding coefficient in Caribbean Hispanics and examined its effects on risk of late-onset Alzheimer disease. The inbreeding coefficient was calculated in 3,392 subjects (1,451 late-onset Alzheimer disease patients and 1,941 age-matched healthy controls) of Caribbean Hispanic ancestry using 177,997 nearly independent single-nucleotide polymorphisms from genome-wide array. The inbreeding coefficient was estimated using the excess homozygosity method with and without adjusting for admixture. The average inbreeding coefficient in Caribbean Hispanics without accounting for admixture was F = 0.018 (±0.048), suggesting a mating equivalent to that of second cousins or second cousins once removed. Adjusting for admixture from three parent populations, the average inbreeding coefficient was found to be 0.0034 (±0.019) or close to third-cousin mating. Inbreeding coefficient was a significant predictor of Alzheimer disease when age, sex, and APOE genotype were used as adjusting covariates (P = 0.03). The average inbreeding coefficient of this population is significantly higher than that of the general Caucasian populations in North America. The high rate of inbreeding resulting in increased frequency of recessive variants is advantageous for the identification of rare variants associated with late-onset Alzheimer disease.Genet Med 17 8, 639-643.

  19. Seasonal predictions of Fire Weather Index: Paving the way for their operational applicability in Mediterranean Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joaquín Bedia

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Managers of wildfire-prone landscapes in the Euro-Mediterranean region would greatly benefit from fire weather predictions a few months in advance, and particularly from the reliable prediction of extreme fire seasons. However, in some cases model biases prevent from a direct application of these predictions in an operational context. Fire risk management requires precise knowledge of the likely consequences of climate on fire risk, and the interest for decision-makers is focused on multi-variable fire danger indices, calculated through the combination of different model output variables. In this paper we consider whether the skill in dynamical seasonal predictions of one of the most widely applied of such indices (the Canadian Fire Weather Index, FWI is sufficient to inform management decisions, and we examine various methodological aspects regarding the calibration of model outputs prior to its verification and operational applicability. We find that there is significant skill in predicting above average summer FWI in parts of SE Europe at 1 month lead time, but poor skill elsewhere. These results are largely linked to the predictability of relative humidity. Moreover, practical recommendations are given for the use of empirical quantile mapping in probabilistic seasonal FWI forecasts. Furthermore, we show how researchers, fire managers and other stakeholders can take advantage of a new open-source climate service in order to undertake all the necessary steps for data download, post-processing, analysis and verification in a straightforward and fully reproducible manner. Keywords: Climate impact indicators, Quantile mapping, Bias correction, System 4, Fire danger, Seasonal forecasting

  20. Automated chart review utilizing natural language processing algorithm for asthma predictive index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaur, Harsheen; Sohn, Sunghwan; Wi, Chung-Il; Ryu, Euijung; Park, Miguel A; Bachman, Kay; Kita, Hirohito; Croghan, Ivana; Castro-Rodriguez, Jose A; Voge, Gretchen A; Liu, Hongfang; Juhn, Young J

    2018-02-13

    Thus far, no algorithms have been developed to automatically extract patients who meet Asthma Predictive Index (API) criteria from the Electronic health records (EHR) yet. Our objective is to develop and validate a natural language processing (NLP) algorithm to identify patients that meet API criteria. This is a cross-sectional study nested in a birth cohort study in Olmsted County, MN. Asthma status ascertained by manual chart review based on API criteria served as gold standard. NLP-API was developed on a training cohort (n = 87) and validated on a test cohort (n = 427). Criterion validity was measured by sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of the NLP algorithm against manual chart review for asthma status. Construct validity was determined by associations of asthma status defined by NLP-API with known risk factors for asthma. Among the eligible 427 subjects of the test cohort, 48% were males and 74% were White. Median age was 5.3 years (interquartile range 3.6-6.8). 35 (8%) had a history of asthma by NLP-API vs. 36 (8%) by abstractor with 31 by both approaches. NLP-API predicted asthma status with sensitivity 86%, specificity 98%, positive predictive value 88%, negative predictive value 98%. Asthma status by both NLP and manual chart review were significantly associated with the known asthma risk factors, such as history of allergic rhinitis, eczema, family history of asthma, and maternal history of smoking during pregnancy (p value NLP-API and abstractor, and the effect sizes were similar between the reviews with 4.4 vs 4.2 respectively. NLP-API was able to ascertain asthma status in children mining from EHR and has a potential to enhance asthma care and research through population management and large-scale studies when identifying children who meet API criteria.

  1. Predicting success of metabolic surgery: age, body mass index, C-peptide, and duration score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Wei-Jei; Hur, Kyung Yul; Lakadawala, Muffazal; Kasama, Kazunori; Wong, Simon K H; Chen, Shu-Chun; Lee, Yi-Chih; Ser, Kong-Han

    2013-01-01

    Surgery is the most effective treatment of morbid obesity and leads to dramatic improvements in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Gastrointestinal metabolic surgery has been proposed as a treatment option for T2DM. However, a grading system to categorize and predict the outcome of metabolic surgery is lacking. The study setting was a tertiary referral hospital (Taoyuan City, Taoyuan County, Taiwan). We first evaluated 63 patients and identified 4 factors that predicted the success of T2DM remission after bariatric surgery in this cohort: body mass index, C-peptide level, T2DM duration, and patient age. We used these variables to construct the Diabetes Surgery Score, a multidimensional 10-point scale along which greater scores indicate a better chance of T2DM remission. We then validated the index in a prospective collected cohort of 176 patients, using remission of T2DM at 1 year after surgery as the outcome variable. A total of 48 T2DM remissions occurred among the 63 patients and 115 remissions (65.3%) in the validation cohort. Patients with T2DM remission after surgery had a greater Diabetes Surgery Score than those without (8 ± 4 versus 4 ± 4, P Surgery Score also had a greater rate of success with T2DM remission (from 33% at score 0 to 100% at score 10); A 1-point increase in the Diabetes Surgery Score translated to an absolute 6.7% in the success rate. The Diabetes Surgery Score is a simple multidimensional grading system that can predict the success of T2DM treatment using bariatric surgery among patients with inadequately controlled T2DM. Copyright © 2013 American Society for Metabolic and Bariatric Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Predictability of machine learning techniques to forecast the trends of market index prices: Hypothesis testing for the Korean stock markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pyo, Sujin; Lee, Jaewook; Cha, Mincheol; Jang, Huisu

    2017-01-01

    The prediction of the trends of stocks and index prices is one of the important issues to market participants. Investors have set trading or fiscal strategies based on the trends, and considerable research in various academic fields has been studied to forecast financial markets. This study predicts the trends of the Korea Composite Stock Price Index 200 (KOSPI 200) prices using nonparametric machine learning models: artificial neural network, support vector machines with polynomial and radial basis function kernels. In addition, this study states controversial issues and tests hypotheses about the issues. Accordingly, our results are inconsistent with those of the precedent research, which are generally considered to have high prediction performance. Moreover, Google Trends proved that they are not effective factors in predicting the KOSPI 200 index prices in our frameworks. Furthermore, the ensemble methods did not improve the accuracy of the prediction.

  3. Predictability of machine learning techniques to forecast the trends of market index prices: Hypothesis testing for the Korean stock markets.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sujin Pyo

    Full Text Available The prediction of the trends of stocks and index prices is one of the important issues to market participants. Investors have set trading or fiscal strategies based on the trends, and considerable research in various academic fields has been studied to forecast financial markets. This study predicts the trends of the Korea Composite Stock Price Index 200 (KOSPI 200 prices using nonparametric machine learning models: artificial neural network, support vector machines with polynomial and radial basis function kernels. In addition, this study states controversial issues and tests hypotheses about the issues. Accordingly, our results are inconsistent with those of the precedent research, which are generally considered to have high prediction performance. Moreover, Google Trends proved that they are not effective factors in predicting the KOSPI 200 index prices in our frameworks. Furthermore, the ensemble methods did not improve the accuracy of the prediction.

  4. Validation of the prostate health index in a predictive model of prostate cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanchís-Bonet, A; Barrionuevo-González, M; Bajo-Chueca, A M; Pulido-Fonseca, L; Ortega-Polledo, L E; Tamayo-Ruiz, J C; Sánchez-Chapado, M

    To validate and analyse the clinical usefulness of a predictive model of prostate cancer that incorporates the biomarker «[-2] pro prostate-specific antigen» using the prostate health index (PHI) in decision making for performing prostate biopsies. We isolated serum from 197 men with an indication for prostate biopsy to determine the total prostate-specific antigen (tPSA), the free PSA fraction (fPSA) and the [-2] proPSA (p2PSA). The PHI was calculated as p2PSA/fPSA×√tPSA. We created 2 predictive models that incorporated clinical variables along with tPSA or PHI. The performance of PHI was assessed with a discriminant analysis using receiver operating characteristic curves, internal calibration and decision curves. The areas under the curve for the tPSA and PHI models were 0.71 and 0.85, respectively. The PHI model showed a better ability to discriminate and better calibration for predicting prostate cancer but not for predicting a Gleason score in the biopsy ≥7. The decision curves showed a greater net benefit with the PHI model for diagnosing prostate cancer when the probability threshold was 15-35% and greater savings (20%) in the number of biopsies. The incorporation of p2PSA through PHI in predictive models of prostate cancer improves the accuracy of the risk stratification and helps in the decision-making process for performing prostate biopsies. Copyright © 2017 AEU. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  5. Predicting fat-free mass index and sarcopenia in assisted-living older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, Taylor M; Vallis, Lori Ann

    2014-01-01

    Age-related muscle loss, termed sarcopenia, has been linked to functional deficits and an increased risk of falling. Such risk is of alarming concern due to the high disability and mortality rates associated with falling in older adults. Our laboratory recently developed a prediction model for fat-free mass index (FFMI) and, subsequently, sarcopenia within a community-dwelling older adult population using functional measures that are easily accessible to clinicians. The purpose of this study was to (1) determine how our prediction model performed in an older and less mobile assisted-living population, and if performance of the model was poor; (2) to improve and modify our previous prediction model using data acquired from this unique population. Forty assisted-living older adults (10 males) aged 86.1 ± 6.2 years participated in the study. Each completed four questionnaires to examine their mental and physical health status and anxiety levels related to falling. Anthropometric, balance, strength, and gait tests were conducted. Fat-free mass values, determined by bioelectrical impedance analysis, were normalized by height to obtain FFMI. Using an algorithm proposed by the European Working Group on Sarcopenia in Older People, FFMI along with grip strength and gait speed were used to identify sarcopenic individuals. FFMI was significantly correlated with sex, body mass index (BMI), circumference measures, handgrip strength, gait velocity, and measures of gait variability. The percentage of the variable variation explained by our previous model was reduced for a population of assisted-living older adults (R(2) of 0.6744 compared to the reported R(2) of 0.9272 for community-dwelling older adults; McIntosh et al. Age (Dordrecht, Netherlands), 2013). The prediction equation that accounted for the greatest variability of FFMI for the assisted living group included the independent variables of forearm circumference, BMI, handgrip strength, and variability of the double

  6. A biophysical index for predicting hydration-mediated microbial diversity in soils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, G.; Or, D.

    2012-04-01

    Exploring the origins of soil microbial diversity represents an immense and uncharted scientific frontier. Progress in resolving mechanisms that promote and sustain the unparalleled soil microbial diversity found in soil requires development of process-based predictive tools that consider dynamic biophysical interactions at highly resolved spatial and temporal scales. We report a novel biophysical metric for hydration-mediated microbial coexistence in soils by integrating key biophysical variables, such as aquatic habitat size and connectivity, nutrient diffusion affecting microbial growth, and aqueous films controlling motility and dispersal, into a predictive index. Results show a surprisingly narrow range of hydration conditions (a few kPa) that mark a sharp transition from suppression (wet) to promotion (dry) of microbial diversity in unsaturated soils in agreement with limited observations and with simulation results based on individual-based models of competing populations. The framework enables systematic hypothesis testing for key factors that regulate microbial populations and affect soil bio-geochemical functions, and represents a step towards deciphering key mechanisms that support soil microbial diversity. New insights into the different roles of biophysical mechanisms in promoting soil microbial diversity enable predictions concerning microbial consortia function and bioremediation activities in soils, and may shape how we quantify microbial diversity within the context of land resources and biogeochemical cycling.

  7. Predict rheumatoid arthritis conversion from undifferentiated arthritis with dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI and laboratory indexes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lei, Xinwei; Li, Huixia; Zhan, Ying; Qu, Jin

    2018-01-15

    To investigate the clinical value of dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI (DCE-MRI) and laboratory indexes in predicting conversion from undifferentiated arthritis (UA) to rheumatoid arthritis (RA). A total 81 DMARD-naive UA patients were studied. 37 cases were ultimately diagnosed as RA, 32 cases were diagnosed as other types of arthritis, and the remaining cases were still UA during the 1-year follow-up. The DCE-MRI and laboratory measures were fed into a logistic regression analysis. Wash-in rate and anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide (anti-CCP) antibody served as the final variables into the regression equation (pCCP antibody positive achieved a sensitivity of 37.8% and specificity of 90.9%. The combination of wash-in rate and anti-CCP antibody positive improved specificity (100%) but not sensitivity (27.3%). The conversion from UA to RA is highly predictable. The wash-in rate of DCE-MRI can be used as an important biomarker to predict UA progression.

  8. Can we predict fall asthma exacerbations? Validation of the seasonal asthma exacerbation index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoch, Heather E; Calatroni, Agustin; West, Joseph B; Liu, Andrew H; Gergen, Peter J; Gruchalla, Rebecca S; Khurana Hershey, Gurjit K; Kercsmar, Carolyn M; Kim, Haejin; Lamm, Carin I; Makhija, Melanie M; Mitchell, Herman E; Teach, Stephen J; Wildfire, Jeremy J; Busse, William W; Szefler, Stanley J

    2017-10-01

    A Seasonal Asthma Exacerbation Predictive Index (saEPI) was previously reported based on 2 prior National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Inner City Asthma Consortium trials. This study sought to validate the saEPI in a separate trial designed to prevent fall exacerbations with omalizumab therapy. The saEPI and its components were analyzed to characterize those who had an asthma exacerbation during the Preventative Omalizumab or Step-Up Therapy for Fall Exacerbations (PROSE) study. We characterized those inner-city children with and without asthma exacerbations in the fall period treated with guidelines-based therapy (GBT) in the absence and presence of omalizumab. A higher saEPI was associated with an exacerbation in both the GBT alone (P children treated with GBT with or without omalizumab was associated with a higher saEPI along with higher markers of allergic inflammation, treatment step, and a recent exacerbation. Those that exacerbated on omalizumab had similar features with the exception of some markers of allergic sensitization, indicating a need to develop better markers to predict poor response to omalizumab therapy and alternative treatment strategies for children with these risk factors. The saEPI was able to reliably predict those children unlikely to have an asthma exacerbation in both groups. Copyright © 2017 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. All rights reserved.

  9. Role of Transition Zone Index in the Prediction of Clinical Benign Prostatic Hyperplasia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammet Güzelsoy

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Objective The objective of this study was to determine the role of the transition zone (TZ index (TZI in the prediction of clinical benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH in patients who underwent transurethral prostatectomy (TUR-P and to analyze the correlation between the amount of resected tissue and TZ volume (TZV. Materials and Methods Twenty-six male clinical BPH patients with obstructive complaints and 17 male benign prostate enlargement (BPE patients without any complaints were included in the study. Both the groups were over the age of 50. Clinical BPH patients underwent complete TUR-P. Statistical analysis was done with SPSS. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of TZI-as a method of assessing clinical BPH-were measured. Results There was a statistically significant difference in prostate volume, uroflowmetry patterns, prostate-specific antigen (PSA, International prostate symptom score (IPSS, TZV and TZI between the two groups. There was a correlation between TZV and the amount of resected tissue (r=0.97; p0.40 has a high level of sensitivity and specificity in the prediction of clinical BPH among patients who undergo TUR-P due to obstructive symptoms and reported as BPH. There is a strong correlation between the amount of resected tissue and TZV. TZI is a valuable tool in diagnosis, and TZV gives valuable information about the patient to the surgeon.

  10. Prediction of Lateral Ankle Sprains in Football Players Based on Clinical Tests and Body Mass Index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gribble, Phillip A; Terada, Masafumi; Beard, Megan Q; Kosik, Kyle B; Lepley, Adam S; McCann, Ryan S; Pietrosimone, Brian G; Thomas, Abbey C

    2016-02-01

    The lateral ankle sprain (LAS) is the most common injury suffered in sports, especially in football. While suggested in some studies, a predictive role of clinical tests for LAS has not been established. To determine which clinical tests, focused on potentially modifiable factors of movement patterns and body mass index (BMI), could best demonstrate risk of LAS among high school and collegiate football players. Case-control study; Level of evidence, 3. A total of 539 high school and collegiate football players were evaluated during the preseason with the Star Excursion Balance Test (SEBT) and Functional Movement Screen as well as BMI. Results were compared between players who did and did not suffer an LAS during the season. Logistic regression analyses and calculated odds ratios were used to determine which measures predicted risk of LAS. The LAS group performed worse on the SEBT-anterior reaching direction (SEBT-ANT) and had higher BMI as compared with the noninjured group (P football players. BMI was also significantly higher in football players who sustained an LAS. Identifying clinical tools for successful LAS injury risk prediction will be a critical step toward the creation of effective prevention programs to reduce risk of sustaining an LAS during participation in football. © 2015 The Author(s).

  11. Environmental conditions affect the magnitude of inbreeding depression in survival of Darwin's finches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keller, Lukas F; Grant, Peter R; Grant, B Rosemary; Petren, Kenneth

    2002-06-01

    Understanding the fitness consequences of inbreeding (inbreeding depression) is of importance to evolutionary and conservation biology. There is ample evidence for inbreeding depression in captivity, and data from wild populations are accumulating. However, we still lack a good quantitative understanding of inbreeding depression and what influences its magnitude in natural populations. Specifically, the relationship between the magnitude of inbreeding depression and environmental severity is unclear. We quantified inbreeding depression in survival and reproduction in populations of cactus finches (Geospiza scandens) and medium ground finches (Geospiza fortis) living on Isla Daphne Major in the Galápagos Archipelago. Our analyses showed that inbreeding strongly reduced the recruitment probability (probability of breeding given that an adult is alive) in both species. Additionally, in G. scandens, first-year survival of an offspring with f = 0.25 was reduced by 21% and adults with f = 0.25 experienced a 45% reduction in their annual probability of survival. The magnitude of inbreeding depression in both adult and juvenile survival of this species was strongly modified by two environmental conditions, food availability and number of competitors. In juveniles, inbreeding depression was only present in years with low food availability, and in adults inbreeding depression was five times more severe in years with low food availability and large population sizes. The combination of relatively severe inbreeding depression in survival and the reduced recruitment probability led to the fact that very few inbred G. scandens ever succeeded in breeding. Other than recruitment probability, no other trait showed evidence of inbreeding depression in G. fortis, probably for two reasons: a relatively high rate of extrapair paternity (20%), which may lead to an underestimate of the apparent inbreeding depression, and low sample sizes of highly inbred G. fortis, which leads to low

  12. Ability to predict the development of surgical site infection in cardiac surgery using the Australian Clinical Risk Index versus the National Nosocomial Infections Surveillance-derived Risk Index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Figuerola-Tejerina, A; Bustamante, E; Tamayo, E; Mestres, C A; Bustamante-Munguira, J

    2017-06-01

    Surgical site infection (SSI) is a major infectious complication that increases mortality, morbidity, and healthcare costs. There are scores attempting to classify patients for calculating SSI risk. Our objectives were to validate the Australian Clinical Risk Index (ACRI) in a European population after cardiac surgery, comparing it against the National Nosocomial Infections Surveillance-derived risk index (NNIS) and analyzing the predictive power of ACRI for SSI in valvular patients. All the patients that who underwent cardiac surgery in a tertiary university hospital between 2011 and 2015 were analyzed. The patients were divided into valvular and coronary groups, excluding mixed patients. The ACRI score was validated in both groups and its ability to predict SSI was compared to the NNIS risk index. We analyzed 1,657 procedures. In the valvular patient group (n: 1119), a correlation between the ACRI score and SSI development (p < 0.05) was found; there was no such correlation with the NNIS index. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.64 (confidence interval [CI] 95%, 0.5-0.7) for ACRI and 0.62 (95% CI, 0.5-0.7) for NNIS. In the coronary group (n: 281), there was a correlation between ACRI and SSI but no between NNIS and SSI. The ACRI AUC was 0.70 (95% CI, 0.5-0.8) and the NNIS AUC was 0.60 (95% CI, 0.4-0.7). The ACRI score has insufficient predictive power, although it predicts SSI development better than the NNIS index, fundamentally in coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). Further studies analyzing determining factors are needed.

  13. C-reactive protein concentration predicts change in body mass index during childhood.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barbara H Lourenço

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: Inflammation may constitute an underlying mechanism for increased risk of developing chronic diseases in later years, but few prospective studies have assessed the influence of low-grade inflammation on body weight gain, particularly among children in low- to middle-income settings with lower prevalence of overweight and obesity. We aimed to investigate whether C-reactive protein (CRP, as a biomarker of low-grade inflammation, predicts changes in body mass index-for-age z scores (BAZ during childhood. METHODS: A population-based longitudinal study was conducted in the Brazilian Amazon among children aged ≤10 years in 2007, with follow-up visits in 2009 and 2012. Outcome was annual change in BAZ. As the main exposure of interest, CRP concentrations were divided into four categories, with values 5 years, children in the highest tertile of CRP 5 years.

  14. A Poiseuille-based coronary angiographic index for prediction of fractional flow reserve.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaffe, Ronen; Halon, David A; Roguin, Ariel; Rubinshtein, Ronen; Lewis, Basil S

    2013-08-10

    Coronary revascularization is commonly based on the angiographic finding of percent diameter stenosis (%DS) >50 while lesion length (LL), which contributes to flow-limitation according to Poiseuille's equation, is disregarded. Fractional flow reserve (FFR) is superior to assessment of %DS for identifying flow-limiting lesions, but the technology is invasive and relatively expensive. We developed a Poiseuille-based angiographic index, incorporating both minimal lumen diameter (MLD) and LL, for improved assessment of the hemodynamic significance of intermediate coronary lesions. The present study was designed to test the hypothesis that the Poiseuille-based angiographic index correlated better with FFR measurements than angiographic assessment of %DS. We performed quantitative coronary angiography (QCA) and FFR measurements in 46 intermediate coronary lesions in 41 symptomatic patients referred for diagnostic coronary angiography. From QCA we determined LL, MLD and %DS and calculated an angiographic index, the LL/MLD(4) ratio. Mean LL was 14.2 ± 7.8 (range: 4.3-38.8) mm, MLD 1.4 ± 0.4 (range: 0.6-2.3) mm, %DS 46 ± 12 (range: 25-74) and FFR 0.85 ± 0.09 (range: 0.55-1.00). Fractional flow reserve correlated inversely with %DS (R=-0.39, p=0.008) and with the LL/MLD(4) ratio (R=-0.66, pvalue of 0.80 corresponded with a LL/MLD(4) ratio of 12 (p=0.003) but not with a %DS of 50 (p=NS). A LL/MLD(4) ratio ≤ 12 had a specificity of 94% and negative predictive value of 82% for excluding hemodynamically significant lesions with FFR (≥ 0.80). The LL/MLD(4) ratio was superior to standard angiographic measurement of %DS for exclusion of hemodynamically significant coronary lesions. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Diastolic Heart Failure Predicted by Left Atrial Expansion Index in Patients with Severe Diastolic Dysfunction.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shih-Hung Hsiao

    Full Text Available Left atrial (LA echocardiographic parameters are increasingly used to predict clinically relevant cardiovascular events. The study aims to evaluate the LA expansion index (LAEI for predicting diastolic heart failure (HF in patients with severe left ventricular (LV diastolic dysfunction.This prospective study enrolled 162 patients (65% male with preserved LV systolic function and severe diastolic dysfunction (132 grade 2 patients, 30 grade 3 patients. All patients had sinus rhythm at enrollment. The LAEI was calculated as (Volmax - Volmin x 100% / Volmin, where Volmax was defined as maximal LA volume and Volmin was defined as minimal volume. The endpoint was hospitalization for HF withp reserved LV ejection fraction (HFpEF.The median follow-up duration was 2.9 years. Fifty-four patients had cardiovascular events, including 41 diastolic and 8 systolic HF hospitalizations. In these 54 patients, 13 in-hospital deaths and 5 sudden out-of-hospital deaths occurred. Multivariate analyses revealed that HFpEF was associated with LAEI.and atrial fibrillation during follow-up. For predicting HFpEF, the LAEI had a hazard ratio of 1.197per 10% decrease. In patients who had HFpEF events, the LAEI significantly (P< 0.0001 decreased from 69±18% to 39±11% during hospitalization. Although the LAEI improved during follow-up (53±13%, it did not return to baseline.The LAEI predicts HFpEF in patients with severe diastolic dysfunction; it worsens during HFpEF events and partially recovers during followup.

  16. Real-time index for predicting successful golf putting motion using multichannel EEG.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muangjaroen, Piyachat; Wongsawat, Yodchanan

    2012-01-01

    A skill in goal-directed sport performance is an ability involving with many factors of both external and internal concernment. External factors are still developed while internal factors are challenged topic to understand for improving the performance. Internal concernment is explained an effective performance as estimation, solving strategy, planning and decision on the brain. These conjunctions are relevant to somatosensory information, focus attention and fine motor control of cortical activity. Five skilled right-handed golfers were recruited to be subjected of studying the criteria on how to predict golf putt success. Each of their putts was calculated in power spectral analysis by comparing to the pre-movement period. Successful and unsuccessful putt were classified by focusing on the frontal-midline(Fz), parietal-midline(Pz), central midline(Cz), left central(C3) and right central(C4) which supported by few consistency studies that they are related to a primary sensory motor area, focus attention and working memory processing. Results were shown that high alpha power on C4, theta power on Fz, theta power and high alpha power on Pz can be calculated to use as index of predicting golf putt success. Real-time monitoring system with friendly GUI was proposed in this study as promising preliminary study. Expected goal in the future is to apply this real-time golf putting prediction system into a biofeedback system to increase the golf putting's accuracy. However, it still needs more subjects to increase credibility and accuracy of the prediction.

  17. Age-adjusted Charlson Comorbidity Index predicts prognosis of laryngopharyngeal cancer treated with radiation therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takemura, Kazuya; Takenaka, Yukinori; Ashida, Naoki; Shimizu, Kotaro; Oya, Ryohei; Kitamura, Takahiro; Yamamoto, Yoshifumi; Uno, Atsuhiko

    2017-12-01

    To examine the ability of comorbidity indices to predict the prognosis of laryngopharyngeal cancer and their association with treatment modalities. This retrospective study included 198 patients with laryngeal, hypopharyngeal, and oropharyngeal cancers. The effect of comorbidity indices on overall survival between surgery and (chemo)-radiation therapy ((C)RT) groups was analyzed. The cumulative incidence rates for cancer mortality and other mortalities according to the age-adjusted Charlson Comorbidity Index (ACCI) and Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) were compared. Univariate survival analyses showed a significant association between the ACCI and overall survival in the (C)RT group, but not in the surgery group. The association between the CCI and overall survival was not significant in either group. In multivariate analyses, a high ACCI score was an independent prognostic factor in the (C)RT group (HR 2.89, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.28-6.49), but not in the surgery group (HR 1.39, 95%CI 0.27-5.43). The higher ACCI group had increased mortality from other causes compared with the lower ACCI group (5-year cumulative incidence, 8.5% and 17.8%, respectively, p = .003). The ACCI was a better prognostic factor than the CCI. Surgery may be more beneficial than radiation for patients with a high ACCI.

  18. Development of a Summarized Health Index (SHI for use in predicting survival in sea turtles.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tsung-Hsien Li

    Full Text Available Veterinary care plays an influential role in sea turtle rehabilitation, especially in endangered species. Physiological characteristics, hematological and plasma biochemistry profiles, are useful references for clinical management in animals, especially when animals are during the convalescence period. In this study, these factors associated with sea turtle surviving were analyzed. The blood samples were collected when sea turtles remained alive, and then animals were followed up for surviving status. The results indicated that significantly negative correlation was found between buoyancy disorders (BD and sea turtle surviving (p < 0.05. Furthermore, non-surviving sea turtles had significantly higher levels of aspartate aminotranspherase (AST, creatinine kinase (CK, creatinine and uric acid (UA than surviving sea turtles (all p < 0.05. After further analysis by multiple logistic regression model, only factors of BD, creatinine and UA were included in the equation for calculating summarized health index (SHI for each individual. Through evaluation by receiver operating characteristic (ROC curve, the result indicated that the area under curve was 0.920 ± 0.037, and a cut-off SHI value of 2.5244 showed 80.0% sensitivity and 86.7% specificity in predicting survival. Therefore, the developed SHI could be a useful index to evaluate health status of sea turtles and to improve veterinary care at rehabilitation facilities.

  19. A clinical index to predict progression from mild cognitive impairment to dementia due to Alzheimer's disease.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sei J Lee

    Full Text Available Mild cognitive impairment is often a precursor to dementia due to Alzheimer's disease, but many patients with mild cognitive impairment never develop dementia. New diagnostic criteria may lead to more patients receiving a diagnosis of mild cognitive impairment.To develop a prediction index for the 3-year risk of progression from mild cognitive impairment to dementia relying only on information that can be readily obtained in most clinical settings.382 participants diagnosed with amnestic mild cognitive impairment enrolled in the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI, a multi-site, longitudinal, observational study.Demographics, comorbid conditions, caregiver report of participant symptoms and function, and participant performance on individual items from basic neuropsychological scales.Progression to probable Alzheimer's disease.Subjects had a mean (SD age of 75 (7 years and 43% progressed to probable Alzheimer's disease within 3 years. Important independent predictors of progression included being female, resisting help, becoming upset when separated from caregiver, difficulty shopping alone, forgetting appointments, number of words recalled from a 10-word list, orientation and difficulty drawing a clock. The final point score could range from 0 to 16 (mean [SD]: 4.2 [2.9]. The optimism-corrected Harrell's c-statistic was 0.71(95% CI: 0.68-0.75. Fourteen percent of subjects with low risk scores (0-2 points, n = 124 converted to probable Alzheimer's disease over 3 years, compared to 51% of those with moderate risk scores (3-8 points, n = 223 and 91% of those with high risk scores (9-16 points, n = 35.An index using factors that can be obtained in most clinical settings can predict progression from amnestic mild cognitive impairment to probable Alzheimer's disease and may help clinicians differentiate between mild cognitive impairment patients at low vs. high risk of progression.

  20. Trait specific consequences of fast and slow inbreeding: lessonsfrom captive populations of Drosophila melanogaster

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mikkelsen, Karina Aarup; Loeschcke, Volker; Kristensen, Torsten Nygaard

    2010-01-01

    or 2 generations. These inbred lines were contrasted to non-inbred control lines. We investigated the effect of inbreeding and inbreeding rate in traits associated with fitness including heat, cold and desiccation stress resistance, egg-to-adult viability, development time, productivity, metabolic rate......The increased homozygosity due to inbreeding leads to expression of deleterious recessive alleles, which may cause inbreeding depression in small populations. The severity of inbreeding depression has been suggested to depend on the rate of inbreeding, with slower inbreeding being more effective...... and heat stress conditions. Reduced viability and increased developmental time were observed at stressful temperatures and inbreeding depression was on average more severe at stressful compared to benign temperatures...

  1. The association of genotype-based inbreeding coefficient with a range of physical and psychological human traits

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verweij, K.J.H.; Abdellaoui, A.; Veijola, J.; Sebert, S.; Koiranen, M.; Keller, M.C.; Jarvelin, M.R.; Zietsch, B.P.

    2014-01-01

    Across animal species, offspring of closely related mates exhibit lower fitness, a phenomenon called inbreeding depression. Inbreeding depression in humans is less well understood because mating between close relatives is generally rare and stigmatised, confounding investigation of its effect on

  2. The Association of Genotype-Based Inbreeding Coefficient with a Range of Physical and Psychological Human Traits

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verweij, K.J.H.; Abdellaoui, A.; Veijola, J.; Sebert, S.; Koiranen, M.; Keller, M.C.; Järvelin, M.R.; Zietsch, B.P.

    2014-01-01

    Across animal species, offspring of closely related mates exhibit lower fitness, a phenomenon called inbreeding depression. Inbreeding depression in humans is less well understood because mating between close relatives is generally rare and stigmatised, confounding investigation of its effect on

  3. A major QTL affects temperature sensitive adult lethality and inbreeding depression in life span in Drosophila melanogaster

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vermeulen, Cornelius J.; Bijlsma, R.; Loeschcke, Volker

    2008-01-01

    Background: The study of inbreeding depression has major relevance for many disciplines, including conservation genetics and evolutionary biology. Still, the molecular genetic basis of this phenomenon remains poorly characterised, as knowledge on the mechanistic causes of inbreeding depression and

  4. The Doppler echocardiographic myocardial performance index predicts left-ventricular dilation and cardiac death after myocardial infarction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, J E; Søndergaard, E; Poulsen, S H

    2001-01-01

    To investigate the value of the Doppler-derived myocardial performance index to predict early left-ventricular (LV) dilation and cardiac death after a first acute myocardial infarction (AMI), Doppler echocardiography was performed within 24 h of hospital admission, on day 5, 1 and 3 months after...... AMI in 125 consecutive patients. The index measured on day 1 correlated well with the change in end-diastolic volume index observed from day 1 to 3 months following AMI (r = 0.66, p 0.0001). One-year survival in patients with Doppler index index > or = 0......, we conclude that the Doppler echocardiographic myocardial performance index is a predictor of LV dilation and cardiac death after a first AMI....

  5. Allometric and non-allometric consequences of inbreeding on Drosophila melanogaster wings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Trotta, Vincenzo; Cavicchi, Sandro; Guerra, Daniela

    2011-01-01

    Inbreeding is expected to increase the variability in size and shape within populations. The distinct effects of inbreeding on size and shape suggest that they are governed by different developmental pathways. One unresolved question is whether the non-allometric shape component is partially unco...

  6. Academic Inbreeding: Exploring Its Characteristics and Rationale in Japanese Universities Using a Qualitative Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horta, Hugo; Sato, Machi; Yonezawa, Akiyoshi

    2011-01-01

    This study analyses why and how academic inbreeding as a recruitment practice continues to prevail in Japan, a country with a mature higher education system, where high rates of academic inbreeding endure in most of the research-oriented universities in spite of several higher education reforms. Based on a qualitative analysis, we disclose three…

  7. Within and between population variation in inbreeding depression in the locally threatened perennial Scabiosa columbaria

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Angeloni, F.; Vergeer, P.; Wagemaker, C.A.M.; Ouborg, N.J.

    2014-01-01

    Inbreeding depression plays a central role within the conservation genetics paradigm. Until now inbreeding depression is incorporated into models of population viability as a mean value (e.g. number of lethal equivalents) for all traits in a population. In this study of the locally threatened

  8. Investigating Inbreeding Depression for Heat Stress Tolerance in the Model Organism "Drosophila Melanogaster"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedersen, Kamilla Sofie; Pedersen, Louise Dybdahl; Sorensen, Anders Christian; Nielsen, Anna Busch; Kristensen, Torsten Nygaard

    2012-01-01

    Mating between closely related individuals often causes reduced fitness, which is termed "inbreeding depression". Inbreeding is, therefore, a threat towards the persistence of animal and plant populations. Here we present methods and results from a practical for high-school and first-year university students and discuss learning outcomes…

  9. Rate of inbreeding and effective population size in four major South ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Pedigree information on the registered South African Ayrshire (n = 47 116), Guernsey (n = 18 766), Holstein (n = 892 458) and Jersey (n = 314 403) breeds was analyzed to determine the rate of inbreeding and effective population sizes for the period 1960 to 2003. Inbreeding coefficients were calculated using the Animal ...

  10. Telomere length reveals cumulative individual and transgenerational inbreeding effects in a passerine bird

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bebbington, Kat; Spurgin, Lewis G.; Fairfield, Eleanor A.; Dugdale, Hannah L.; Komdeur, Jan; Burke, Terry; Richardson, David S.

    Inbreeding results in more homozygous offspring that should suffer reduced fitness, but it can be difficult to quantify these costs for several reasons. First, inbreeding depression may vary with ecological or physiological stress and only be detectable over long time periods. Second, parental

  11. PREDICTION OF OUTCOME USING THE MANNHEIM PERITONITIS INDEX IN CASES OF PERITONITIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanjeev

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Peritonitis still presents an extremely common & dreaded problem in emergency surgery. Despite aggressive surgical techniques, the prognosis of peritonitis and intra - abdominal sepsis is very poor, especially when multiple organ failure develops. Therefore early objective & reliable classification of the severity of peritonitis and intra - abdominal sepsis is needed not only to predict prognosis & to select patients for these aggressive surgical techniques but also to evaluate & compare the results of different treatment regimens. So, in this prospective st udy of 60 cases of peritonitis, the reliability of the Mannheim peritonitis index is assessed & its predictive power evaluated. MATERIALS & METHOD S : This prospective study was carried out in the department of surgery, GMCH, Udaipur from June 2014 to June 2 015 after taking the permission from institutional ethics committee. Patients from both sexes of various age groups having peritonitis of varied aetiology & who had undergone laparotomy were taken. A detailed history, thorough clinical examination & necess ary investigations were performed in e ach case according to planned p r o forma. After resuscitation laparotomy was done & operative findings were noted carefully and a proper note on the progress of each patient was maintained and any complications encounter ed were noted. So, early classification of patients presenting with peritonitis by means of objective scoring system was done to select patients for aggressive surgery & overall morbidity & mortality were analyzed. RESULTS: Total 60 patients of peritonitis were examined and common causes were peptic (61.6%, typhoid (21.6% and appendicular (8.3 %. Most common age group was found to be 21 to 50 years and male to female ratio was 4:1. Peritonitis was more common in patients involved in hard work and chronic Be di smokers (61.6%. About 46% of patients who presented for treatment within 48 hours of onset of illness

  12. Obesity Index That Better Predict Metabolic Syndrome: Body Mass Index, Waist Circumference, Waist Hip Ratio, or Waist Height Ratio

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdulbari Bener

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Aim. The aim was to compare body mass index (BMI, waist circumference (WC, waist hip ratio (WHR, and waist height ratio (WHtR to identify the best predictor of metabolic syndrome (MetS among Qatari adult population. Methods. A cross-sectional survey from April 2011 to December 2012. Data was collected from 1552 participants followed by blood sampling. MetS was defined according to Third Adult Treatment Panel (ATPIII and International Diabetes Federation (IDF. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC curve analysis was performed. Results. Among men, WC followed by WHR and WHtR yielded the highest area under the curve (AUC (0.78; 95% CI 0.74–0.82 and 0.75; 95% CI 0.71–0.79, resp.. Among women, WC followed by WHtR yielded the highest AUC (0.81; 95% CI 0.78–0.85 & 0.79; 95% CI 0.76–0.83, resp.. Among men, WC at a cut-off 99.5 cm resulted in the highest Youden index with sensitivity 81.6% and 63.9% specificity. Among women, WC at a cut-off 91 cm resulted in the highest Youden index with the corresponding sensitivity and specificity of 86.5% and 64.7%, respectively. BMI had the lowest sensitivity and specificity in both genders. Conclusion. WC at cut-off 99.5 cm in men and 91 cm in women was the best predictor of MetS in Qatar.

  13. Can the Foot Posture Index or their individual criteria predict dynamic plantar pressures?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sánchez-Rodríguez, Raquel; Martínez-Nova, Alfonso; Escamilla-Martínez, Elena; Pedrera-Zamorano, Juan Diego

    2012-07-01

    The Foot Posture Index (FPI) quantifies foot posture through the evaluation of six individual criteria. The objective of the present study was then to establish the plantar pressure differences between types of feet, and to study the capacity of the whole FPI value and the six individual criteria to predict the pattern of plantar pressures. In a sample of 400 healthy subjects (201 men and 199 women), the FPI was evaluated and plantar pressures were measured in 10 zones using the Footscan(®) platform. Five plantar pressures measurements were made for each foot, using for the study the mean of these measurements for each subject's left foot. The hallux and the lesser toes had lower pressure indices in highly supinated feet, with the values increasing progressively toward the highly pronated feet (pfeet, and decreased in the highly pronated feet (pfeet--pronated, neutral, and supinated. Its individual criteria predict moderate or low plantar pressures variability, with the talonavicular prominence being the most influential criterion. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Prediction of Hemodynamic Reactivity during Sevoflurane Remifentanyl Anesthesia for Laparoscopic Cholecystectomy Using Analgesia Nociception Index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Şefik Köprülü

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Aim: Pneumoperitoneum may cause serious side effects in high-risk patients during laparoscopic cholecystectomy. Perioperative analgesic sufficiency has been measured by the Analgesia Nociception index (ANI in recent years. We examine the possibility of predicting hemodynamic reactivity by observing sudden changes in ANI during operation. Methods: In this retrospective study, recorded hemodynamic parameters (including heart rate, systolic/ diastolic blood pressure values and ANI values, before and after intubation, nasogastric tube application, intraperitoneal gas insufflation, and surgical incision in 31 patients who were applied laparoscopic cholecystectomy were compared by paired t-test. Additionally, an increment or decrement of 20% in ANI and 15% in hemodynamic parameters with respect to basal observation values were called “sudden changes”. Correlation of these parameters with sudden changes in ANI values was examined either. Results: There was a statistically significant difference in parameters after premedication and intubation. After induction, a statistically significant decrement was detected only in heart rate and systolic/diastolic blood pressure values. There was no significant change after nasogastric tube insertion. During pneumoperitoneum and surgical incision, there was no change in heart rate and systolic/diastolic blood pressure values, but a statistically significant decrement was observed in ANI. No correlation was detected between sudden changes in ANI values and hemodynamic parameters. Conclusion: We assume that use of ANI in analgesia evaluation under general anesthesia at perioperative period is suitable, however, it is not reliable in predicting hemodynamic interaction.

  15. The use of productivity index to predict corn yields on restored prime farmland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barnhisel, R.I.; Hower, J.M.

    1994-01-01

    A 4-year study was conducted to determine if corn yields could be predicted from a productivity index (PI) derived from physical and chemical properties of soil, including bulk density, cone penetrometer resistance, water-holding capacity, texture, pH, and other soil fertility factors. In the studies, correlation coefficients (r) between PI and yield varied from near 0 to 0.76 from one field or mining method to another. Such a wide range in values of r may be largely attributed to sampling variation over a short distance, whereas corn plants can explore a larger volume of soil thus compensating for poor physical conditions that by chance was collected to represent sampling points within a field. The site from which the highest r value was obtained had been planted to soybeans prior to planting corn. This area did not have the lowest bulk density nor did it have the highest corn yield, but it was the treatment that the model most nearly predicted the yield of corn. Bulk densities varied over time and in general decreased, but the correlation with corn yield also decreased. Corn yields may be achieved (i.e., target levels for bond release) even though PI values may indicate remedial treatments were necessary

  16. A comparison of inbreeding Depression in Tropical and Widespread Drosophila Species

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bechsgaard, Jesper Smærup; Hoffmann, Ary A; Sgró, Carla

    2013-01-01

    in 5 widespread and 5 tropical restricted species of Drosophila with aim of testing whether the two species groups suffered differently from inbreeding depression. The traits investigated wwere egg-to-adult viability, develpmental time and resistance to heat, vold and desiccation. Our results showed...... that levels of inbreeding depression were species and trait specific and did not differ between the species groups for stress resistance traits. However, for the life history traits developmental time and egg-to-adult viability, more inbreeding depression was observed in the tropical species. The results...... reported suggest that for life history traits tropical species of Drosophila will suffer more from inbreeding depression than widespread species in case of increases in the rate of inbreeding e.g. due to declines in population sizes....

  17. Morphological traits and inbreeding depression in Bracco Italiano dog breed

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesca Cecchi

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper reports the first results of a survey on morphological traits in Bracco Italiano dog breed, and analyzes the effects of various levels of inbreeding on these measures. Traits were taken from 155 adult (mean age 4.18±2.60 years dogs (79 males and 76 females belonging to 57 different farms. For each animal, the following biometrical measurements were considered: height at withers (WH, height of chest (ChH, body length (BL, length at rump (RL, height at rump (RH, iliac width of rump (RIlW, ischiatic width of rump (RIsW, circumference of chest (ChC, circumference of cannon (CaC, length of ear (EL, and length of head (HL. The ratio of rump length/withers height (RL/WH, cannon circumference/chest circumference (CaC/ChC and head length/withers height (HL/WH were also calculated. ANOVA was used to test the differences between males and females and among farms in terms of morphological measurements and ratios. Significant differences between males and females were observed for many morphological traits. The measures coincided with what reported in the current breed standard, apart from the length of the rump, which was around ¼ of the withers height rather than the 1/3 required in the standard. No significant effect of inbreeding on conformation traits was observed.

  18. Thelytokous parthenogenesis and its consequences on inbreeding in an ant.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearcy, M; Hardy, O; Aron, S

    2006-05-01

    Thelytokous parthenogenesis, that is, the production of diploid daughters from unfertilized eggs, may involve various cytological mechanisms, each having a different impact on the genetic structure of populations. Here, we determined the cytological mechanism of thelytokous parthenogenesis and its impact on inbreeding in the ant Cataglyphis cursor, a species where queens use both sexual and asexual reproduction to produce, respectively, workers and new queens. It has been suggested that thelytokous parthenogenesis in C. cursor might have been selected for to face high queen mortality and, originally, to allow workers to replace the queen when she passes away. We first determined the mode of thelytokous parthenogenesis by comparing the rate of transition to homozygosity at four highly polymorphic loci to expectations under the different modes of parthenogenesis. Our data show that thelytoky is achieved through automictic parthenogenesis with central fusion. We then estimated the proportion of colonies headed by worker-produced queens in a natural population. We designed a model linking the observed homozygosity in queens to the proportion of queens produced by workers, based on the assumption that (i) parthenogenesis is automictic with central fusion and (ii) queen lineage is asexually produced, resulting in an increase of the inbreeding over generations, whereas workers are sexually produced and therefore not inbred. Our results indicate that more than 60% of the colonies should be headed by a worker-produced queen, suggesting that queen's lifespan is low in this species.

  19. Random inbreeding, isonymy, and population isolates in Argentina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dipierri, José; Rodríguez-Larralde, Alvaro; Barrai, Italo; Camelo, Jorge López; Redomero, Esperanza Gutiérrez; Rodríguez, Concepción Alonso; Ramallo, Virginia; Bronberg, Rubén; Alfaro, Emma

    2014-07-01

    Population isolates are an important tool in identifying and mapping genes of Mendelian diseases and complex traits. The geographical identification of isolates represents a priority from a genetic and health care standpoint. The purpose of this study is to analyze the spatial distribution of consanguinity by random isonymy (F ST) in Argentina and its relationship with the isolates previously identified in the country. F ST was estimated from the surname distribution of 22.6 million electors registered for the year 2001 in the 24 provinces, 5 geographical regions, and 510 departments of the country. Statistically significant spatial clustering of F ST was determined using the SaTScan V5.1 software. F ST exhibited a marked regional and departamental variation, showing the highest values towards the North and West of Argentina. The clusters of high consanguinity by random isonymy followed the same distribution. Recognized Argentinean genetic isolates are mainly localized at the north of the country, in clusters of high inbreeding. Given the availability of listings of surnames in high-capacity storage devices for different countries, estimating F ST from them can provide information on inbreeding for all levels of administrative subdivisions, to be used as a demographic variable for the identification of isolates within the country for public health purposes.

  20. Estimation of inbreeding using pedigree, 50k SNP chip genotypes and full sequence data in three cattle breeds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, Qianqian; Calus, Mario P L; Guldbrandtsen, Bernt

    2015-01-01

    Background: Levels of inbreeding in cattle populations have increased in the past due to the use of a limited number of bulls for artificial insemination. High levels of inbreeding lead to reduced genetic diversity and inbreeding depression. Various estimators based on different sources, e...

  1. Predicting heat stress index in Sasso hens using automatic linear modeling and artificial neural network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yakubu, A; Oluremi, O I A; Ekpo, E I

    2018-03-17

    There is an increasing use of robust analytical algorithms in the prediction of heat stress. The present investigation therefore, was carried out to forecast heat stress index (HSI) in Sasso laying hens. One hundred and sixty seven records on the thermo-physiological parameters of the birds were utilized. They were reared on deep litter and battery cage systems. Data were collected when the birds were 42- and 52-week of age. The independent variables fitted were housing system, age of birds, rectal temperature (RT), pulse rate (PR), and respiratory rate (RR). The response variable was HSI. Data were analyzed using automatic linear modeling (ALM) and artificial neural network (ANN) procedures. The ALM model building method involved Forward Stepwise using the F Statistic criterion. As regards ANN, multilayer perceptron (MLP) with back-propagation network was used. The ANN network was trained with 90% of the data set while 10% were dedicated to testing for model validation. RR and PR were the two parameters of utmost importance in the prediction of HSI. However, the fractional importance of RR was higher than that of PR in both ALM (0.947 versus 0.053) and ANN (0.677 versus 0.274) models. The two models also predicted HSI effectively with high degree of accuracy [r = 0.980, R 2  = 0.961, adjusted R 2  = 0.961, and RMSE = 0.05168 (ALM); r = 0.983, R 2  = 0.966; adjusted R 2  = 0.966, and RMSE = 0.04806 (ANN)]. The present information may be exploited in the development of a heat stress chart based largely on RR. This may aid detection of thermal discomfort in a poultry house under tropical and subtropical conditions.

  2. Spatiotemporal variability and predictability of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in Alberta, Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Rengui; Xie, Jiancang; He, Hailong; Kuo, Chun-Chao; Zhu, Jiwei; Yang, Mingxiang

    2016-09-01

    As one of the most popular vegetation indices to monitor terrestrial vegetation productivity, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) has been widely used to study the plant growth and vegetation productivity around the world, especially the dynamic response of vegetation to climate change in terms of precipitation and temperature. Alberta is the most important agricultural and forestry province and with the best climatic observation systems in Canada. However, few studies pertaining to climate change and vegetation productivity are found. The objectives of this paper therefore were to better understand impacts of climate change on vegetation productivity in Alberta using the NDVI and provide reference for policy makers and stakeholders. We investigated the following: (1) the variations of Alberta's smoothed NDVI (sNDVI, eliminated noise compared to NDVI) and two climatic variables (precipitation and temperature) using non-parametric Mann-Kendall monotonic test and Thiel-Sen's slope; (2) the relationships between sNDVI and climatic variables, and the potential predictability of sNDVI using climatic variables as predictors based on two predicted models; and (3) the use of a linear regression model and an artificial neural network calibrated by the genetic algorithm (ANN-GA) to estimate Alberta's sNDVI using precipitation and temperature as predictors. The results showed that (1) the monthly sNDVI has increased during the past 30 years and a lengthened growing season was detected; (2) vegetation productivity in northern Alberta was mainly temperature driven and the vegetation in southern Alberta was predominantly precipitation driven for the period of 1982-2011; and (3) better performances of the sNDVI-climate relationships were obtained by nonlinear model (ANN-GA) than using linear (regression) model. Similar results detected in both monthly and summer sNDVI prediction using climatic variables as predictors revealed the applicability of two models for

  3. Child body mass index, genotype and parenting in the prediction of restrictive feeding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bost, K K; Teran-Garcia, M; Donovan, S M; Fiese, B H

    2018-04-01

    Restrictive feeding is implicated in pediatric obesity, and caregivers increase controlling feeding practices on the basis of higher child weight status. However, few studies have examined how child genetic and parenting characteristics together impact restrictive feeding. We examined whether child body mass index (BMI) status predicts caregiver use of restrictive feeding and if this association is moderated by (i) caregiver strategies to manage their children's distress and (ii) child variations in the catechol-O-methyltransferase (COMT) gene (Val 158 Met, rs4680). Participants included 126 Caucasian children (50% girls) and their caregivers who were participating in a larger study in the USA. Caregivers reported on their feeding practices and responses to child distress when children were 2.5-3.5 years of age. Child anthropometric measurements were also obtained. Restrictive feeding was assessed again 1-1.5 years later. Genomic DNA was obtained from saliva samples, and COMT-rs4680 was genotyped using TaqMan® methodology. Child BMI percentile predicted subsequent caregiver restrictive feeding for children who were Met/Met and who had caregivers reporting higher use of negative responses to child distress. For Val carriers, BMI percentile predicted restrictive feeding when caregivers were below the mean on these responses. Caregivers are at risk for use of restrictive feeding practices when their children are at higher BMI percentiles, and this association increases when caregivers use more ineffective stress regulation practices and their children are homozygous for the Met allele. Prevention programmes might focus on parenting behaviours that foster emotion regulation and consider variation in child responses to parenting. © 2017 World Obesity Federation.

  4. Adaptation of Sediment Connectivity Index for Swedish catchments and application for flood prediction of roads

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cantone, Carolina; Kalantari, Zahra; Cavalli, Marco; Crema, Stefano

    2016-04-01

    Climate changes are predicted to increase precipitation intensities and occurrence of extreme rainfall events in the near future. Scandinavia has been identified as one of the most sensitive regions in Europe to such changes; therefore, an increase in the risk for flooding, landslides and soil erosion is to be expected also in Sweden. An increase in the occurrence of extreme weather events will impose greater strain on the built environment and major transport infrastructures such as roads and railways. This research aimed to identify the risk of flooding at the road-stream intersections, crucial locations where water and debris can accumulate and cause failures of the existing drainage facilities. Two regions in southwest of Sweden affected by an extreme rainfall event in August 2014, were used for calibrating and testing a statistical flood prediction model. A set of Physical Catchment Descriptors (PCDs) including road and catchment characteristics was identified for the modelling. Moreover, a GIS-based topographic Index of Sediment Connectivity (IC) was used as PCD. The novelty of this study relies on the adaptation of IC for describing sediment connectivity in lowland areas taking into account contribution of soil type, land use and different patterns of precipitation during the event. A weighting factor for IC was calculated by estimating runoff calculated with SCS Curve Number method, assuming a constant value of precipitation for a given time period, corresponding to the critical event. The Digital Elevation Model of the study site was reconditioned at the drainage facilities locations to consider the real flow path in the analysis. These modifications led to highlight the role of rainfall patterns and surface runoff for modelling sediment delivery in lowland areas. Moreover, it was observed that integrating IC into the statistic prediction model increased its accuracy and performance. After the calibration procedure in one of the study areas, the model was

  5. Predicting heat stress index in Sasso hens using automatic linear modeling and artificial neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yakubu, A.; Oluremi, O. I. A.; Ekpo, E. I.

    2018-03-01

    There is an increasing use of robust analytical algorithms in the prediction of heat stress. The present investigation therefore, was carried out to forecast heat stress index (HSI) in Sasso laying hens. One hundred and sixty seven records on the thermo-physiological parameters of the birds were utilized. They were reared on deep litter and battery cage systems. Data were collected when the birds were 42- and 52-week of age. The independent variables fitted were housing system, age of birds, rectal temperature (RT), pulse rate (PR), and respiratory rate (RR). The response variable was HSI. Data were analyzed using automatic linear modeling (ALM) and artificial neural network (ANN) procedures. The ALM model building method involved Forward Stepwise using the F Statistic criterion. As regards ANN, multilayer perceptron (MLP) with back-propagation network was used. The ANN network was trained with 90% of the data set while 10% were dedicated to testing for model validation. RR and PR were the two parameters of utmost importance in the prediction of HSI. However, the fractional importance of RR was higher than that of PR in both ALM (0.947 versus 0.053) and ANN (0.677 versus 0.274) models. The two models also predicted HSI effectively with high degree of accuracy [r = 0.980, R 2 = 0.961, adjusted R 2 = 0.961, and RMSE = 0.05168 (ALM); r = 0.983, R 2 = 0.966; adjusted R 2 = 0.966, and RMSE = 0.04806 (ANN)]. The present information may be exploited in the development of a heat stress chart based largely on RR. This may aid detection of thermal discomfort in a poultry house under tropical and subtropical conditions.

  6. Prostate Health Index improves multivariable risk prediction of aggressive prostate cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loeb, Stacy; Shin, Sanghyuk S; Broyles, Dennis L; Wei, John T; Sanda, Martin; Klee, George; Partin, Alan W; Sokoll, Lori; Chan, Daniel W; Bangma, Chris H; van Schaik, Ron H N; Slawin, Kevin M; Marks, Leonard S; Catalona, William J

    2017-07-01

    To examine the use of the Prostate Health Index (PHI) as a continuous variable in multivariable risk assessment for aggressive prostate cancer in a large multicentre US study. The study population included 728 men, with prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels of 2-10 ng/mL and a negative digital rectal examination, enrolled in a prospective, multi-site early detection trial. The primary endpoint was aggressive prostate cancer, defined as biopsy Gleason score ≥7. First, we evaluated whether the addition of PHI improves the performance of currently available risk calculators (the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial [PCPT] and European Randomised Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer [ERSPC] risk calculators). We also designed and internally validated a new PHI-based multivariable predictive model, and created a nomogram. Of 728 men undergoing biopsy, 118 (16.2%) had aggressive prostate cancer. The PHI predicted the risk of aggressive prostate cancer across the spectrum of values. Adding PHI significantly improved the predictive accuracy of the PCPT and ERSPC risk calculators for aggressive disease. A new model was created using age, previous biopsy, prostate volume, PSA and PHI, with an area under the curve of 0.746. The bootstrap-corrected model showed good calibration with observed risk for aggressive prostate cancer and had net benefit on decision-curve analysis. Using PHI as part of multivariable risk assessment leads to a significant improvement in the detection of aggressive prostate cancer, potentially reducing harms from unnecessary prostate biopsy and overdiagnosis. © 2016 The Authors BJU International © 2016 BJU International Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  7. The environmental dependence of inbreeding depression in a wild bird population.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marta Szulkin

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available Inbreeding depression occurs when the offspring produced as a result of matings between relatives show reduced fitness, and is generally understood as a consequence of the elevated expression of deleterious recessive alleles. How inbreeding depression varies across environments is of importance for the evolution of inbreeding avoidance behaviour, and for understanding extinction risks in small populations. However, inbreeding-by-environment (IxE interactions have rarely been investigated in wild populations.We analysed 41 years of breeding events from a wild great tit (Parus major population and used 11 measures of the environment to categorise environments as relatively good or poor, testing whether these measures influenced inbreeding depression. Although inbreeding always, and environmental quality often, significantly affected reproductive success, there was little evidence for statistically significant I x E interactions at the level of individual analyses. However, point estimates of the effect of the environment on inbreeding depression were sometimes considerable, and we show that variation in the magnitude of the I x E interaction across environments is consistent with the expectation that this interaction is more marked across environmental axes with a closer link to overall fitness, with the environmental dependence of inbreeding depression being elevated under such conditions. Hence, our analyses provide evidence for an environmental dependence of the inbreeding x environment interaction: effectively an I x E x E.Overall, our analyses suggest that I x E interactions may be substantial in wild populations, when measured across relevant environmental contrasts, although their detection for single traits may require very large samples, or high rates of inbreeding.

  8. [Prediction of storage time of fresh beef with multi-index using visible and near-infrared spectroscopy].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Shi-Bang; Xu, Yang; Tang, Xiu-Ying; Tian, Xiao-Yu; Fu, Xing

    2012-12-01

    The prediction model of beef's storage time was established based on multi indexes of fresh beef, such as TVB-N, colony total, pH value, and L* parameter. Visible and near-infrared spectroscopy (Vis/NIR) combined with interval PLS (iPLS)and genetic algorithm(GA) was investigated for establishing PLS calibration model of above 4 indexes, respectively, and rapid and nondestructive prediction of the storage time of fresh beef stored at 4 degrees C was realized. PLS models of 4 indexes were built with full spectrum and effective variables selected by iPLS and iPLS-GA method, respectively. The performance of each model was evaluated according to two correlations coefficients(R) and standard error (SE) of calibration and prediction sets. Experimental results showed that the performance of all models built with effective variable selected by iPLS-GA was better than full spectrum and iPLS. The storage time of calibration and prediction sets of beef samples was predicted by storage time model with predicted values of above 4 indexes, and was achieved as follows: R(c) = 0.903, R(p) = 0.897, SEC = 1.88 and SEP = 2.24. The study demonstrated that the beef's storage time can be synthetically predicted with multi-index by using visible and near-infrared spectroscopy combined with the prediction model of beef's storage time. This provides a new method for rapid and nondestructive detection of beef's storage time or shelf life.

  9. Left Atrial Volume Index and Prediction of Events in Acute Coronary Syndrome: Solar Registry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jose Alves Secundo Junior

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Background: According to some international studies, patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS and increased left atrial volume index (LAVI have worse long-term prognosis. However, national Brazilian studies confirming this prediction are still lacking. Objective: To evaluate LAVI as a predictor of major cardiovascular events (MCE in patients with ACS during a 365-day follow-up. Methods: Prospective cohort of 171 patients diagnosed with ACS whose LAVI was calculated within 48 hours after hospital admission. According to LAVI, two groups were categorized: normal LAVI (≤ 32 mL/m2 and increased LAVI (> 32 mL/m2. Both groups were compared regarding clinical and echocardiographic characteristics, in- and out-of-hospital outcomes, and occurrence of ECM in up to 365 days. Results: Increased LAVI was observed in 78 patients (45%, and was associated with older age, higher body mass index, hypertension, history of myocardial infarction and previous angioplasty, and lower creatinine clearance and ejection fraction. During hospitalization, acute pulmonary edema was more frequent in patients with increased LAVI (14.1% vs. 4.3%, p = 0.024. After discharge, the occurrence of combined outcome for MCE was higher (p = 0.001 in the group with increased LAVI (26% as compared to the normal LAVI group (7% [RR (95% CI = 3.46 (1.54-7.73 vs. 0.80 (0.69-0.92]. After Cox regression, increased LAVI increased the probability of MCE (HR = 3.08, 95% CI = 1.28-7.40, p = 0.012. Conclusion: Increased LAVI is an important predictor of MCE in a one-year follow-up.

  10. A predictive model for pressure ulcer outcome: the Wound Healing Index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horn, Susan D; Barrett, Ryan S; Fife, Caroline E; Thomson, Brett

    2015-12-01

    The purpose of this learning activity is to provide information regarding the creation of a risk-stratification system to predict the likelihood of the healing of body and heel pressure ulcers (PrUs). This continuing education activity is intended for physicians and nurses with an interest in skin and wound care. After participating in this educational activity, the participant should be better able to:1. Explain the need for a PrU risk stratification tool.2. Describe the purpose and methodology of the study.3. Delineate the results of the study and development of the Wound Healing Index. : To create a validated system to predict the healing likelihood of patients with body and heel pressure ulcers (PrUs), incorporating only patient- and wound-specific variables. The US Wound Registry data were examined retrospectively and assigned a clear outcome (healed, amputated, and so on). Significant variables were identified with bivariate analyses. Multivariable logistic regression models were created based on significant factors (P wound clinics in 24 states : A total of 7973 body PrUs and 2350 heel PrUs were eligible for analysis. Not applicable : Healed PrU MAIN RESULTS:: Because of missing data elements, the logistic regression development model included 6640 body PrUs, of which 4300 healed (64.8%), and the 10% validation sample included 709 PrUs, of which 477 healed (67.3%). For heel PrUs, the logistic regression development model included 1909 heel PrUs, of which 1240 healed (65.0%), and the 10% validation sample included 203 PrUs, of which 133 healed (65.5%). Variables significantly predicting healing were PrU size, PrU age, number of concurrent wounds of any etiology, PrU Stage III or IV, evidence of bioburden/infection, patient age, being nonambulatory, having renal transplant, paralysis, malnutrition, and/or patient hospitalization for any reason. Body and heel PrU Wound Healing Indices are comprehensive, user-friendly, and validated predictive models for

  11. Mannheim Peritoneal Index in the Prediction of Postoperative Complications in Patients with Peritonitis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. N. Aksenova

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective: to study the diagnostic and prognostic values of the Mannheim peritoneal index (MPI in the development of postoperative local and systemic complications in patients with peritonitis. Materials and methods. The case histories of 92 patients with generalized peritonitis of varying etiology (other than pancreatogenic one were analyzed. The patients were retrospectively divided into 3 groups according to the outcomes and occurrence of postoperative local complications. The postoperative complications were classified by the procedure developed by A. L. Kostyuchenko et al. as local and systemic ones. When the patients had two signs or more of the systemic inflammatory response syndrome, they were stated to have systemic complications and to be diagnosed as having abdominal sepsis with the pattern of organ dysfunctions being described in accordance with the sepsis classification proposed by R. S. Bone et al. (1992. The number of organ dysfunctions was daily counted in each patient over time in the postoperative period. On the first postoperative day, MPI was calculated in scores for each patient; the mean MPI was estimated for all patient groups. The predictable mortality was calculated using the MPI plot. Results. All the patients with generalized peritonitis in the development of local postoperative complications were observed to have sepsis in the postoperative period, without developing local complication in 84.6% of the patients. A direct correlation was found between the MPI and the quantity of organ dysfunctions (r=0.6; p=0.001. In patients with local postoperative complications being developed, the MPI values were higher (p<0.05 than in those without them. The mortality rates that have been predicted by means of MPI (16.3% and actual (15.2% are actually in agreement. Conclusion. There is evidence for the diagnostic and prognostic values of MPI in the development of local and systemic postoperative complications in patients with

  12. Building and verifying a severity prediction model of acute pancreatitis (AP) based on BISAP, MEWS and routine test indexes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, Jiang-Feng; Zhao, Yu-Xin; Ju, Jian; Wang, Wei

    2017-10-01

    To discuss the value of the Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP), Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS), serum Ca2+, similarly hereinafter, and red cell distribution width (RDW) for predicting the severity grade of acute pancreatitis and to develop and verify a more accurate scoring system to predict the severity of AP. In 302 patients with AP, we calculated BISAP and MEWS scores and conducted regression analyses on the relationships of BISAP scoring, RDW, MEWS, and serum Ca2+ with the severity of AP using single-factor logistics. The variables with statistical significance in the single-factor logistic regression were used in a multi-factor logistic regression model; forward stepwise regression was used to screen variables and build a multi-factor prediction model. A receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC curve) was constructed, and the significance of multi- and single-factor prediction models in predicting the severity of AP using the area under the ROC curve (AUC) was evaluated. The internal validity of the model was verified through bootstrapping. Among 302 patients with AP, 209 had mild acute pancreatitis (MAP) and 93 had severe acute pancreatitis (SAP). According to single-factor logistic regression analysis, we found that BISAP, MEWS and serum Ca2+ are prediction indexes of the severity of AP (P-valueprediction index of AP severity (P-value>0.05). The multi-factor logistic regression analysis showed that BISAP and serum Ca2+ are independent prediction indexes of AP severity (P-valueprediction index of AP severity (P-value>0.05); BISAP is negatively related to serum Ca2+ (r=-0.330, P-valuemodel is as follows: ln()=7.306+1.151*BISAP-4.516*serum Ca2+. The predictive ability of each model for SAP follows the order of the combined BISAP and serum Ca2+ prediction model>Ca2+>BISAP. There is no statistical significance for the predictive ability of BISAP and serum Ca2+ (P-value>0.05); however, there is remarkable statistical significance for

  13. Television viewing is not predictive of Body Mass Index in Black and Hispanic young adult females

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richmond, Tracy K.; Walls, Courtney; Gooding, Holly C.; Field, Alison E.

    2009-01-01

    Previous studies have observed that television viewing is predictive of obesity and weight gain. We examined whether the cross-sectional association between television viewing and body mass index (BMI) varied by racial/ethnic subgroups among young women in Wave III (collected in 2001–2002) of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health. We used multivariate linear regression to examine the relationship between TV viewing and BMI among 6,049 females while controlling for socio-demographic and health attributes. We stratified the sample by race/ethnicity to better understand the association between TV viewing and BMI across different groups. Black and Hispanic females had higher BMIs (Black: 28.5 kg/m2, Hispanic: 27.3 kg/m2, White: 26.0kg/m2) than White females while Black females reported higher numbers of hours spent watching TV (Black: 14.7 hrs/wk, Hispanic: 10.6 hrs/wk, White: 11.2 hrs/wk) when compared to their White and Hispanic peers. TV viewing was positively associated with BMI (β=0.79, p=0.003 for 8–14 v. ≤7 hrs/wk; β=1.18, p=0.01 for >14 v. ≤ 7 hrs/wk) independent of race/ethnicity, age, maternal education, history of pregnancy, parental obesity, and household income. However, in models stratified by race/ethnicity, increased TV viewing was associated with increased BMI only among White females. TV viewing was not predictive of higher BMI in Black or Hispanic young adult females. Among Black and Hispanic females, counseling to decrease TV viewing may be important but insufficient for promoting weight loss. PMID:19876003

  14. Body mass index predicts plasma aldosterone concentrations in overweight-obese primary hypertensive patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rossi, Gian Paolo; Belfiore, Anna; Bernini, Giampaolo; Fabris, Bruno; Caridi, Graziella; Ferri, Claudio; Giacchetti, Gilberta; Letizia, Claudio; Maccario, Mauro; Mannelli, Massimo; Palumbo, Gaetana; Patalano, Anna; Rizzoni, Damiano; Rossi, Ermanno; Pessina, Achille C; Mantero, Franco

    2008-07-01

    Body mass index (BMI) shows a direct correlation with plasma aldosterone concentration (PAC) and urinary aldosterone excretion in normotensive individuals; whether the same applies to hypertensive patients is unknown. Our objective was to determine if BMI predicts PAC and the PAC/plasma renin activity ratio [aldosterone renin ratio (ARR)] in hypertensive patients, and if this affects the identification of primary aldosteronism (PA). This was a prospective evaluation of consecutive hypertensive patients referred nationwide to specialized hypertension centers. Sitting PAC, plasma renin activity, and the ARR, baseline and after 50 mg captopril orally with concomitant assessment of parameters, including BMI and daily sodium intake, were calculated. Complete biochemical data and a definite diagnosis were obtained in 1125 consecutive patients. Of them 999 had primary (essential) hypertension (PH) and 126 (11.2%) PA caused by an aldosterone-producing adenoma in 54 (4.8%). BMI independently predicted PAC (beta = 0.153; P < 0.0001) in PH, particularly in the overweight-obese, but not in the PA group. Covariance analysis and formal comparison of the raw, and the BMI-, sex-, and sodium intake-adjusted ARR with receiver operator characteristic curves, showed no significant improvement for the discrimination of aldosterone-producing adenoma from PH patients with covariate-adjusted ARR. BMI correlated with PAC independent of age, sex, and sodium intake in PH, but not in PA patients. This association of BMI is particularly evident in overweight-obese PH patients, and suggests a pathophysiological link between visceral adiposity and aldosterone secretion. However, it does not impact on the diagnostic accuracy of the ARR for discriminating PA from PH patients.

  15. Is heart rate recovery index a predictive factor for cardioinhibitory syncope?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emren, Volkan; Kocabaş, Uğur

    2018-01-01

    Cardioinhibitory syncope is related with excessive bradycardia or asystole due to parasympathetic response. We investigated whether patients with cardioinhibitory syncope have higher heart rate recovery index (HRRi) considered as a parasympathetic system activation in exercise stress testing (EST) than in those with other neurogenic syncope forms. A total of 262 patients who had neurogenic syncope documented by head-up tilt test (HUTT) and 199 healthy control individuals were examined. A maximal EST was applied to all patients after the HUTT. The HRRi was obtained by subtracting the heart rate that was measured at the first (HRRi-1), second (HRRi-2), and third minute (HRRi-3) of the recovery period from the maximal heart rate that was measured during the test. Eighty patients had cardioinhibitory syncope, 118 patients had vasodepressor syncope, and 64 patients had mixed-type syncope. The HRRi-1 was higher in patients with syncope (43.3 ± 7.7) compared to the control group (34.5 ± 4.8; p < 0.001). Post hoc analysis showed that among the syncope groups, there was no difference between patients with vasodepressor syncope (42.2 ± 7.6) and those with mixed type syncope (40.7 ± 4.1) in terms of HRRi-1 (p = 0.420). However, patients with cardioinhibitory syncope (47 ± 8.7) had a higher HRRi-1 than vasodepressor and mixed-type syncope groups (p < 0.05). The threshold value of the HRRi-1, which can be used for the prediction of cardioinhibitory syncope development, was determined to be 41 with 75% sensitivity and 72% specificity. The HRRi-1 was higher in patients with cardioinhibitory syncope compared to the controls. The HRRi-1 has the predictive feature of differentiating cardioinhibitory syncope from other syncope types.

  16. Predictive validity of the tobacco marketing receptivity index among non-smoking youth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braun, Sandra; Abad-Vivero, Erika Nayeli; Mejía, Raúl; Barrientos, Inti; Sargent, James D; Thrasher, James F

    2018-05-01

    In a previous cross-sectional study of early adolescents, we developed a marketing receptivity index (MRI) that integrates point-of-sale (PoS) marketing exposures, brand recall, and ownership of branded merchandise. The MRI had independent, positive associations with smoking susceptibility among never smokers and with current smoking behavior. The current longitudinal study assessed the MRI's predictive validity among adolescents who have never smoked cigarettes METHODS: Data come from a longitudinal, school-based survey of 33 secondary schools in Argentina. Students who had never smoked at baseline were followed up approximately 17months later (n=1700). Questions assessed: PoS marketing exposure by querying frequency of going to stores where tobacco is commonly sold; cued recall of brand names for 3 cigarette packages from dominant brands but with the brand name removed; and ownership of branded merchandise. A four-level MRI was derived: 1.low PoS marketing exposure only; 2. high PoS exposure or recall of 1 brand; 3. recall of 2 or more brands; and 4. ownership of branded merchandise. Logistic regression models regressed smoking initiation by follow up survey on the MRI, each of its components, and students' willingness to try a brand, adjusting for sociodemographics, social network smoking, and sensation seeking. The MRI had an independent positive association with smoking initiation. When analyzed separately, each MRI component was associated with outcomes except branded merchandise ownership. The MRI and its components were associated with smoking initiation, except for branded merchandise ownership, which may better predict smoking progression than initiation. The MRI appears valid and useful for future studies. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Prediction of higher cost of antiretroviral therapy (ART) according to clinical complexity. A validated clinical index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velasco, Cesar; Pérez, Inaki; Podzamczer, Daniel; Llibre, Josep Maria; Domingo, Pere; González-García, Juan; Puig, Inma; Ayala, Pilar; Martín, Mayte; Trilla, Antoni; Lázaro, Pablo; Gatell, Josep Maria

    2016-03-01

    The financing of antiretroviral therapy (ART) is generally determined by the cost incurred in the previous year, the number of patients on treatment, and the evidence-based recommendations, but not the clinical characteristics of the population. To establish a score relating the cost of ART and patient clinical complexity in order to understand the costing differences between hospitals in the region that could be explained by the clinical complexity of their population. Retrospective analysis of patients receiving ART in a tertiary hospital between 2009 and 2011. Factors potentially associated with a higher cost of ART were assessed by bivariate and multivariate analysis. Two predictive models of "high-cost" were developed. The normalized estimated (adjusted for the complexity scores) costs were calculated and compared with the normalized real costs. In the Hospital Index, 631 (16.8%) of the 3758 patients receiving ART were responsible for a "high-cost" subgroup, defined as the highest 25% of spending on ART. Baseline variables that were significant predictors of high cost in the Clinic-B model in the multivariate analysis were: route of transmission of HIV, AIDS criteria, Spanish nationality, year of initiation of ART, CD4+ lymphocyte count nadir, and number of hospital admissions. The Clinic-B score ranged from 0 to 13, and the mean value (5.97) was lower than the overall mean value of the four hospitals (6.16). The clinical complexity of the HIV patient influences the cost of ART. The Clinic-B and Clinic-BF scores predicted patients with high cost of ART and could be used to compare and allocate costs corrected for the patient clinical complexity. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier España, S.L.U. y Sociedad Española de Enfermedades Infecciosas y Microbiología Clínica. All rights reserved.

  18. Canopy Chlorophyll Density Based Index for Estimating Nitrogen Status and Predicting Grain Yield in Rice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaojun Liu

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Canopy chlorophyll density (Chl has a pivotal role in diagnosing crop growth and nutrition status. The purpose of this study was to develop Chl based models for estimating N status and predicting grain yield of rice (Oryza sativa L. with Leaf area index (LAI and Chlorophyll concentration of the upper leaves. Six field experiments were conducted in Jiangsu Province of East China during 2007, 2008, 2009, 2013, and 2014. Different N rates were applied to generate contrasting conditions of N availability in six Japonica cultivars (9915, 27123, Wuxiangjing 14, Wuyunjing 19, Yongyou 8, and Wuyunjing 24 and two Indica cultivars (Liangyoupei 9, YLiangyou 1. The SPAD values of the four uppermost leaves and LAI were measured from tillering to flowering growth stages. Two N indicators, leaf N accumulation (LNA and plant N accumulation (PNA were measured. The LAI estimated by LAI-2000 and LI-3050C were compared and calibrated with a conversion equation. A linear regression analysis showed significant relationships between Chl value and N indicators, the equations were as follows: PNA = (0.092 × Chl − 1.179 (R2 = 0.94, P < 0.001, relative root mean square error (RRMSE = 0.196, LNA = (0.052 × Chl − 0.269 (R2 = 0.93, P < 0.001, RRMSE = 0.185. Standardized method was used to quantity the correlation between Chl value and grain yield, normalized yield = (0.601 × normalized Chl + 0.400 (R2 = 0.81, P < 0.001, RRMSE = 0.078. Independent experimental data also validated the use of Chl value to accurately estimate rice N status and predict grain yield.

  19. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Monthly North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) teleconnection index

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Monthly tabulated index of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) teleconnection pattern. The data spans the period 1950 to present. The index is derived from a...

  20. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) East Atlantic/ Western Russia Teleconnection Pattern Index

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Monthly tabulated index of the East Atlantic/ Western Russia teleconnection pattern. The data spans the period 1950 to present. The index is derived from a rotated...

  1. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) East Pacific/ North Pacific Teleconnection Pattern Index

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Monthly tabulated index of the East Pacific/ North Pacific teleconnection pattern. The data spans the period 1950 to present. The index is derived from a rotated...

  2. An index predictive of cognitive outcome in retired professional American Football players with a history of sports concussion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, Mathew J; Woo, Ellen; Birath, J Brandon; Siders, Craig A; Kelly, Daniel F; Wang, Christina; Swerdloff, Ronald; Romero, Elizabeth; Kernan, Claudia; Cantu, Robert C; Guskiewicz, Kevin

    2016-01-01

    Various concussion characteristics and personal factors are associated with cognitive recovery in athletes. We developed an index based on concussion frequency, severity, and timeframe, as well as cognitive reserve (CR), and we assessed its predictive power regarding cognitive ability in retired professional football players. Data from 40 retired professional American football players were used in the current study. On average, participants had been retired from football for 20 years. Current neuropsychological performances, indicators of CR, concussion history, and play data were used to create an index for predicting cognitive outcome. The sample displayed a range of concussions, concussion severities, seasons played, CR, and cognitive ability. Many of the participants demonstrated cognitive deficits. The index strongly predicted global cognitive ability (R(2) = .31). The index also predicted the number of areas of neuropsychological deficit, which varied as a function of the deficit classification system used (Heaton: R(2) = .15; Wechsler: R(2) = .28). The current study demonstrated that a unique combination of CR, sports concussion, and game-related data can predict cognitive outcomes in participants who had been retired from professional American football for an average of 20 years. Such indices may prove to be useful for clinical decision making and research.

  3. Predicting dyslexia at age 11 from a risk index questionnaire at age 5.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helland, Turid; Plante, Elena; Hugdahl, Kenneth

    2011-08-01

    This study focused on predicting dyslexia in children ahead of formal literacy training. Because dyslexia is a constitutional impairment, risk factors should be seen in preschool. It was hypothesized that data gathered at age 5 using questions targeting the dyslexia endophenotype should be reliable and valid predictors of dyslexia at age 11. A questionnaire was given to caretakers of 120 5-year-old children, and a risk index score was calculated based on questions regarding health, laterality, motor skills, language, special needs education and heredity. An at-risk group (n = 25) and matched controls (n = 24) were followed until age 11, when a similar questionnaire and literacy tests were administered to the children who participated in the follow-up study (22 at risk and 20 control). Half of the at-risk children and two of the control children at age 5 were identified as having dyslexia at age 11 (8 girls and 5 boys). It is concluded that it is possible to identify children at the age of 5 who will have dyslexia at the age of 11 through a questionnaire approach. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  4. [Value of the Geriatric Nutritional Risk Index in predicting mortality of elderly patients undergoing hemodialysis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yuran; Zhang, Zheng; Yu, Qing; Yuan, Weijie

    2015-12-08

    To explore the reliability of the Geriatric Nutritional Risk Index (GNRI) as a mortality predictor in elderly patients undergoing hemodialysis (HD). A total of 125 maintenance HD patients aged >60 years old who had received dialysis for over 6 months before entry was retrospectively examined. The values of GNRI were calculated, and death was taken as the end point. The patients were divided into 4 groups according to the quartiles of GNRI values. All-cause and cardiovascular mortality were calculated using Kaplan-Meier and cox proportional-hazards analyses, and ROC curve was adopted for analyzing the predicting value of GNRI on mortality. The GNRI of the four groups were ≤92.06, 92.07-96.15, 96.16-101.25, ≥101.26, respectively. Kaplan-Meier survival rate was significantly different among 4 groups for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. Cox regression model analysis demonstrated that the GNRI was a predictor for all cause (HR=0.940, P=0.001, 95%CI: 0.907-0.974) and cardiovascular mortality (HR=0.906, Pmaintainance HD patients, but more multi-center studies with larger samples are still needed.

  5. Use of Radiographic Densitometry to Predict the Bone Healing Index in Distraction Osteogenesis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A Saw

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Bone lengthening with distraction osteogenesis involves prolonged application of an external fixator frame. Qualitative and quantitative evaluation of callus has been described using various imaging modalities but there is no simple reliable and readily available method. This study aims to investigate the use of a densitometer to analyze plain radiographic images and correlate them with the rate of new bone formation as represented by the bone healing index. A total of 34 bone lengthening procedures in 29 patients were retrospectively reviewed. We used an X-Rite 301 densitometer to measure densities of new callus on plain radiographs taken at 4 and 8 weeks after surgery. Patients aged below 16y had significantly lower BHIs indicating faster bone healing and shorter duration of treatment. The ratio of radiographic densities between centre and edge of the new bone measured from plain radiographs taken at 8 weeks correlated positively with the eventual BHI of the patient. This method provides a simple and easy way to predict the rate of bone healing at an early stage of treatment and may also allow remedial action to be taken for those with poor progress in bone formation.

  6. Genetically predicted high body mass index is associated with increased gastric cancer risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mao, Yingying; Yan, Caiwang; Lu, Qun; Zhu, Meng; Yu, Fei; Wang, Cheng; Dai, Juncheng; Ma, Hongxia; Hu, Zhibin; Shen, Hongbing; Jin, Guangfu

    2017-09-01

    Epidemiological studies have linked body mass index (BMI) with risk of gastrointestinal cancers. However, for gastric cancer, the relationship is more controversial. In particular, it is unclear whether the observed association is due to confounding or bias inherent in conventional observational studies. To investigate whether BMI is causally associated with gastric cancer risk, we applied Mendelian randomization using individual-level data from 2631 gastric cancer cases and 4373 cancer-free controls. We derived a weighted genetic risk score (wGRS) using 37 BMI-associated genetic variants as an instrumental variable. We used logistic regression to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for associations between genetically predicted BMI and gastric cancer risk. We observed that higher genetically determined BMI was associated with increased gastric cancer risk (per standard deviation (SD) increase in the wGRS: OR=1.07, 95% CI: 1.02-1.13, P=4.94 × 10 -3 ). Compared with individuals in the bottom tertile of the BMI wGRS, those in the top tertile had 1.14-fold (95% CI: 1.01-1.29) increased risk of developing gastric cancer. Sensitivity analyses using alternative causal inference measures demonstrated consistent association. Our study indicated that genetically high BMI was associated with increased gastric cancer risk, suggesting that high BMI may have a causal role in the etiology of gastric cancer.

  7. Pre-operative prognostic nutritional index predicts the outcomes for triple-negative breast cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Zhengjun; Zhang, Bin; Hou, Likun; Xie, Yegong; Cao, Xuchen

    2014-12-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate whether pre-operative prognostic nutritional index (PNI), an indicator of nutritional and immunological status, has an impact on the long-term outcomes in triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) patients. This retrospective study reviewed the medical records of 382 TNBC patients who had suffered from mastectomy. Pre-operative PNI was calculated as 10 × serum albumin (g/dl) + 0.005 × total lymphocyte count (per mm(3)). The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was performed to determine the optimal cutoff value of PNI. The correlations of PNI value with clinicopathological features were analyzed and the univariate and multivariate analysis were applied to identify the prognostic factors. The results showed that pre-operative PNI value was significantly related to advanced tumor status such as N stage (p = 0.011), T stage (p = 0.015), and recurrence incidents (p = 0.001). Survival analysis identified PNI as an independent prognostic factor for TNBC. Patients with higher PNI value had better 5-year disease-free survival (DFS) and 5-year overall survival (OS) than those with lower PNI value (DFS, p = 0.007; OS, p = 0.011). Taken together, our results suggest that the pre-operative PNI can be used as a simple and useful marker for predicting the long-term outcomes of TNBC patients.

  8. Left atrial area index predicts adverse cardiovascular events in patients with unstable angina pectoris.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yi-Fan; Li, Wei-Hong; Li, Zhao-Ping; Feng, Xin-Heng; Xu, Wei-Xian; Chen, Shao-Min; Gao, Wei

    2016-08-01

    The left atrial size has been considered as a useful marker of adverse cardiovascular outcomes. However, it is not well known whether left atrial area index (LAAI) has predictive value for prognosis in patients with unstable angina pectoris (UAP). This study was aimed to assess the association between LAAI and outcomes in UAP patients. We enrolled a total of 391 in-hospital patients diagnosed as UAP. Clinical and echocardiographic data at baseline were collected. The patients were followed for the development of adverse cardiovascular (CV) events, including hospital readmission for angina pectoris, acute myocardial infarction (AMI), congestive heart failure (CHF), stroke and all-cause mortality. During a mean follow-up time of 26.3 ± 8.6 months, 98 adverse CV events occurred (84 hospital readmission for angina pectoris, four AMI, four CHF, one stroke and five all-cause mortality). In a multivariate Cox model, LAAI [OR: 1.140, 95% CI: 1.016-1.279, P = 0.026], diastolic blood pressure (OR: 0.976, 95% CI: 0.956-0.996, P = 0.020) and pulse pressure (OR: 1.020, 95% CI: 1.007-1.034, P = 0.004) were independent predictors for adverse CV events in UAP patients. LAAI is a predictor of adverse CV events independent of clinical and other echocardiographic parameters in UAP patients.

  9. An inflammation-based prognostic index predicts survival advantage after transarterial chemoembolization in hepatocellular carcinoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinato, David J; Sharma, Rohini

    2012-08-01

    Transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) is the preferred treatment for unresectable, intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, survival after TACE can be highly variable, suggesting the need for more accurate patient selection to improve therapeutic outcome. We have explored the prognostic ability of the blood neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), a biomarker of systemic inflammation, as a predictor of survival after TACE. Fifty-four patients with a diagnosis of HCC eligible for TACE were selected. Clinicopathologic variables were collected, including demographics, tumor staging, liver functional reserve, and laboratory variables. Dynamic changes in the NLR before and after TACE were studied as predictors of survival using both a univariate and multivariate Cox regression model. Patients in whom the NLR remained stable or normalized after TACE showed a significant improvement in overall survival of 26 months compared with patients showing a persistently abnormal index (P = 0.006). Other predictors of survival on univariate analysis were Cancer of the Liver Italian Program score (P = 0.05), intrahepatic spread (P = 0.01), tumor diameter > 5 cm (P = 0.02), > 1 TACE (P = 0.01), alpha-fetoprotein ≥ 400 (P = 0.002), and radiologic response to TACE (P analysis. Changes in alpha-fetoprotein after treatment did not predict survival. Patients with a persistently increased NLR have a worse outcome after TACE. NLR is a simple and universally available stratifying biomarker that can help identify patients with a significant survival advantage after TACE. Copyright © 2012 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Predictive validity of the BRASS index in screening patients with post-discharge problems. Blaylock Risk Assessment Screening Score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mistiaen, P; Duijnhouwer, E; Prins-Hoekstra, A; Ros, W; Blaylock, A

    1999-11-01

    Discharge planning is a nursing intervention that aims to ensure continuity of care; it consists of several steps of which selecting patients in need of it is the first one. The Blaylock Risk Assessment Screening Score (BRASS) index is a risk screening instrument which can be used early after admission to identify those patients in need of discharge planning. To test the predictive validity of the BRASS index in screening patients with post-discharge problems. Prospective longitudinal design with prediction instrument measured at admission, and outcomes measured at discharge and 7 and 30 days after discharge. length of stay, discharge destination, status after discharge. BRASS index, Problems after discharge Questionnaire, Nottingham Health Profile, COOP/WONCA charts. 503 elderly patients were screened at admission with the BRASS index. Length of stay and discharge destination were measured at discharge in these same patients. Outcomes after discharge were gathered only in patients who were discharged home and with length of stay of more than 3 days (n=226); outcomes were measured by postal questionnaires at day 7 and day 30 after discharge. patients identified by the BRASS index as high risk are frequently not discharged home and have a longer length of stay. The BRASS scores correlate significantly with the outcome scores after discharge: the higher the BRASS score, the higher the difficulty score after discharge on all domains. However, the sensitivity of the BRASS index is rather low. This study demonstrates that the BRASS index is a good predictor instrument for indicating patients who are not discharged home, that the BRASS scores correlate significantly with problems experienced after discharge and that it has high specificity to predict patients with problems after discharge. Clinical use, however, is limited due to the low sensitivity. The BRASS index is a promising case-finding instrument for discharge planning, but needs further development.

  11. Noninvasive assessments of liver fibrosis with transient elastography and Hui index predict survival in patients with chronic hepatitis B.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Grace Lai-Hung; Chan, Henry Lik-Yuen; Yu, Zhuo; Wong, Catherine Ka-Yan; Leung, Calvin; Ho, Patricia Po-Lai; Chan, Candace Yim; Chung, Vivian Chi-Yee; Chan, Zhan Cham-Yan; Tse, Yee-Kit; Chim, Angel Mei-Ling; Lau, Tina Kit-Ting; Chan, Hoi-Yun; Tse, Chi-Hang; Wong, Vincent Wai-Sun

    2015-03-01

    The prognostic role of noninvasive assessments of liver fibrosis has been evolving. Our aim was to investigate the prognostic value of liver stiffness measurement (LSM) with transient elastography and serum-based Hui index to predict hepatic events and deaths in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients. The main prospective cohort included 1555 consecutive CHB patients referred for transient elastography examination; a subgroup of 980 patients underwent follow-up assessments at least 3 years later formed the serial cohort. Cox proportional hazard model was performed to determine the relationship of LSM, Hui index and other clinical variables with hepatic events and deaths. During a mean follow-up of 69 ± 9 months, 119 patients (7.6%) developed hepatic events or deaths. Hepatic event-free survival was significantly decreased with increasing stages of LSM and Hui index. The 5-year cumulative probability of hepatic event-free survival of patients of Stage 1-7 of LSM were 99.3%, 98.8%, 95.7%, 90.9%, 89.6%, 74.6%, and 50.0%, respectively; that of Stage 1 to 3 of Hui index were 98.2%, 93.1%, and 77.5%, respectively. Independent predictors of hepatic event-free survival were age, baseline LSM, and follow-up Hui index. Serum ALT and body mass index affected the accuracy of prediction by LSM. Patients remained early stages of LSM or Hui index at follow-up visit had better survival compared to those remained at late stages. Baseline and change in noninvasive parameters of liver fibrosis, LSM and Hui index, are accurate to predict hepatic event-free survival in CHB patients. © 2014 Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Foundation and Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

  12. Inbreeding depresses sperm competitiveness, but not fertilization or mating success in male Tribolium castaneum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michalczyk, Łukasz; Martin, Oliver Y.; Millard, Anna L.; Emerson, Brent C.; Gage, Matthew J. G.

    2010-01-01

    As populations decline to levels where reproduction among close genetic relatives becomes more probable, subsequent increases in homozygous recessive deleterious expression and/or loss of heterozygote advantage can lead to inbreeding depression. Here, we measure how inbreeding across replicate lines of the flour beetle Tribolium castaneum impacts on male reproductive fitness in the absence or presence of male–male competition. Effects on male evolution from mating pattern were removed by enforcing monogamous mating throughout. After inbreeding across eight generations, we found that male fertility in the absence of competition was unaffected. However, we found significant inbreeding depression of sperm competitiveness: non-inbred males won 57 per cent of fertilizations in competition, while inbred equivalents only sired 42 per cent. We also found that the P2 ‘offence’ role in sperm competition was significantly more depressed under inbreeding than sperm ‘defence’ (P1). Mating behaviour did not explain these differences, and there was no difference in the viability of offspring sired by inbred or non-inbred males. Sperm length variation was significantly greater in the ejaculates of inbred males. Our results show that male ability to achieve normal fertilization success was not depressed under strong inbreeding, but that inbreeding depression in these traits occurred when conditions of sperm competition were generated. PMID:20554548

  13. Effects of inbreeding on potential and realized immune responses in Tenebrio molitor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rantala, Markus J; Viitaniemi, Heidi; Roff, Derek A

    2011-06-01

    Although numerous studies on vertebrates suggest that inbreeding reduces their resistance against parasites and pathogens, studies in insects have found contradictory evidence. In this study we tested the effect of 1 generation of brother-sister mating (inbreeding) on potential and realized immune responses and other life-history traits in Tenebrio molitor. We found that inbreeding reduced adult mass, pre-adult survival and increased development time, suggesting that inbreeding reduced the condition of the adults and thus potentially made them more susceptible to physiological stress. However, we found no significant effect of inbreeding on the potential immune response (encapsulation response), but inbreeding reduced the realized immune response (resistance against the entomopathogenic fungi, Beauveria bassiana). There was a significant family effect on encapsulation response, but no family effect on the resistance against the entomopathogenic fungi. Given that this latter trait showed significant inbreeding depression and that the sample size for the family-effect analysis was small it is likely that the lack of a significant family effect is due to reduced statistical power, rather than the lack of a heritable basis to the trait. Our study highlights the importance of using pathogens and parasites in immunoecological studies.

  14. Influence of Maximum Inbreeding Avoidance under BLUP EBV Selection on Pinzgau Population Diversity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radovan Kasarda

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Evaluated was effect of mating (random vs. maximum avoidance of inbreeding under BLUP EBV selection strategy. Existing population structure was under Monte Carlo stochastic simulation analyzed from the point to minimize increase of inbreeding. Maximum avoidance of inbreeding under BLUP selection resulted into comparable increase of inbreeding then random mating in average of 10 generation development. After 10 generations of simulation of mating strategy was observed ΔF= 6,51 % (2 sires, 5,20 % (3 sires, 3,22 % (4 sires resp. 2,94 % (5 sires. With increased number of sires selected, decrease of inbreeding was observed. With use of 4, resp. 5 sires increase of inbreeding was comparable to random mating with phenotypic selection. For saving of genetic diversity and prevention of population loss is important to minimize increase of inbreeding in small populations. Classical approach was based on balancing ratio of sires and dams in mating program. Contrariwise in the most of commercial populations small number of sires was used with high mating ratio.

  15. Mating strategies with genomic information reduce rates of inbreeding in animal breeding schemes without compromising genetic gain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, H; Henryon, M; Sørensen, A C

    2017-04-01

    We tested the hypothesis that mating strategies with genomic information realise lower rates of inbreeding (∆F) than with pedigree information without compromising rates of genetic gain (∆G). We used stochastic simulation to compare ∆F and ∆G realised by two mating strategies with pedigree and genomic information in five breeding schemes. The two mating strategies were minimum-coancestry mating (MC) and minimising the covariance between ancestral genetic contributions (MCAC). We also simulated random mating (RAND) as a reference point. Generations were discrete. Animals were truncation-selected for a single trait that was controlled by 2000 quantitative trait loci, and the trait was observed for all selection candidates before selection. The criterion for selection was genomic-breeding values predicted by a ridge-regression model. Our results showed that MC and MCAC with genomic information realised 6% to 22% less ∆F than MC and MCAC with pedigree information without compromising ∆G across breeding schemes. MC and MCAC realised similar ∆F and ∆G. In turn, MC and MCAC with genomic information realised 28% to 44% less ∆F and up to 14% higher ∆G than RAND. These results indicated that MC and MCAC with genomic information are more effective than with pedigree information in controlling rates of inbreeding. This implies that genomic information should be applied to more than just prediction of breeding values in breeding schemes with truncation selection.

  16. Prediction of Bispectral Index during Target-controlled Infusion of Propofol and Remifentanil: A Deep Learning Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Hyung-Chul; Ryu, Ho-Geol; Chung, Eun-Jin; Jung, Chul-Woo

    2018-03-01

    The discrepancy between predicted effect-site concentration and measured bispectral index is problematic during intravenous anesthesia with target-controlled infusion of propofol and remifentanil. We hypothesized that bispectral index during total intravenous anesthesia would be more accurately predicted by a deep learning approach. Long short-term memory and the feed-forward neural network were sequenced to simulate the pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic parts of an empirical model, respectively, to predict intraoperative bispectral index during combined use of propofol and remifentanil. Inputs of long short-term memory were infusion histories of propofol and remifentanil, which were retrieved from target-controlled infusion pumps for 1,800 s at 10-s intervals. Inputs of the feed-forward network were the outputs of long short-term memory and demographic data such as age, sex, weight, and height. The final output of the feed-forward network was the bispectral index. The performance of bispectral index prediction was compared between the deep learning model and previously reported response surface model. The model hyperparameters comprised 8 memory cells in the long short-term memory layer and 16 nodes in the hidden layer of the feed-forward network. The model training and testing were performed with separate data sets of 131 and 100 cases. The concordance correlation coefficient (95% CI) were 0.561 (0.560 to 0.562) in the deep learning model, which was significantly larger than that in the response surface model (0.265 [0.263 to 0.266], P < 0.001). The deep learning model-predicted bispectral index during target-controlled infusion of propofol and remifentanil more accurately compared to the traditional model. The deep learning approach in anesthetic pharmacology seems promising because of its excellent performance and extensibility.

  17. Preoperative Body Mass Index, Blood Albumin and Triglycerides Predict Survival for Patients with Gastric Cancer.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bin Zheng Liu

    Full Text Available Gastric cancer (GC is common and its prognosis is often poor due to difficulties in early diagnosis and optimal treatment strategies. TNM staging system is useful in predicting prognosis but only possible after surgery. Therefore, it is desirable to investigate prognostic factors/markers that may predict prognosis before surgery by which helps appropriate management decisions preoperatively.A total of 320 GC patients were consecutively recruited from 2004 to 2013 and followed up for 127 months (10.6 years after surgery. These patients' were examined for body mass index (BMI and blood levels of albumin, triglyceride, total cholesterol, low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C, and high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C. Kaplan-Meier method and log rank test were used to analyze long-term survival using the above potential risk markers. We first employed medians of these variables to reveal maximal potentials of the above prognostic predictors.Three major findings were obtained: (1 Preoperative BMI was positively correlated with albumin (r = 0.144, P<0.05 and triglyceride (r = 0.365, P<0.01, but negatively correlated with TNM staging (r = -0.265, P<0.05. Preoperative albumin levels were positively correlated with triglyceride (r = 0.173, P<0.05 but again, negatively correlated with TNM staging (r = -0.137, P<0.05; (2 Poor survival was observed in GC patients with lower levels of BMI (P = 0.028, albumin (P = 0.004, and triglyceride (P = 0.043, respectively. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC curve analyses suggested BMI, albumin and triglyceride to have survival-predictor powers similar to TNM system; and (3 Cox multi-factorial analyses demonstrated that age (P = 0.049, BMI (P = 0.016, cell differentiation (P = 0.001, and TNM staging (P = 0.011 were independent overall survival-predictors for GC patients.Preoperative BMI, albumin, and triglyceride levels are capable of predicting survival for GC patients superior to postoperative TNM

  18. Habitat fragmentation, climate change, and inbreeding in plants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leimu, Roosa; Vergeer, Philippine; Angeloni, Francesco; Ouborg, N Joop

    2010-05-01

    Habitat fragmentation and climate change are recognized as major threats to biodiversity. The major challenge for present day plant populations is how to adapt and cope with altered abiotic and biotic environments caused by climate change, when at the same time adaptive and evolutionary potential is decreased as habitat fragmentation reduces genetic variation and increases inbreeding. Although the ecological and evolutionary effects of fragmentation and climate change have been investigated separately, their combined effects remained largely unexplored. In this review, we will discuss the individual and joint effects of habitat fragmentation and climate change on plants and how the abilities and ways in which plants can respond and cope with climate change may be compromised due to habitat fragmentation.

  19. Pedigree analysis and inbreeding effects over morphological traits in Campolina horse population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bussiman, F O; Perez, B C; Ventura, R V; Peixoto, M G C D; Curi, R A; Balieiro, J C C

    2018-02-22

    Genetic improvement, without control of inbreeding, can go to loss of genetic variability, reducing the potential for genetic gains in the domestic populations. The aim of this study was to analyze the population structure and the inbreeding depression in Campolina horses. Phenotype information from 43 465 individuals was analyzed, data provided by the Campolina Breeders Association. A pedigree file containing 107 951 horses was used to connected the phenotyped individuals. The inbreeding coefficient was performed by use of the diagonal of the relationship matrix and the genealogical parameters were computed using proper softwares. The effective population size was estimated based on the rate of inbreeding and census information, and the stratification of the population was verified by the average relationship coefficient between animals born in different regions of Brazil. The effects of inbreeding on morphological traits were made by the use of inbreeding coefficient as a covariate in the model of random regression. The inbreeding coefficient increased from 1990 on, impacting effective population size and, consequently, shrinking genetic variability. The paternal inbreeding was greater than maternal, which may be attributed to the preference for inbred animals in reproduction. The average genetic relationship coefficient of animals born in different states was lower than individuals born within the same state. The increase in the inbreeding coefficient was negatively associated with all studied traits, showing the importance to avoid genetic losses in the long term. Although results do not indicate a severe narrowing of the population until the present date, the average relationship coefficient shows signs of increase, which could cause a drastic reduction in genetic variability if inbred mating is not successfully controlled in the Campolina horse population.

  20. Inbreeding depression in Solanum carolinense (Solanaceae, a species with a plastic self-incompatibility response

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Keser Lidewij H

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Solanum carolinense (horsenettle is a highly successful weed with a gametophytic self-incompatibility (SI system. Previous studies reveal that the strength of SI in S. carolinense is a plastic trait, associated with particular S-alleles. The importance of this variation in self-fertility on the ability of horsenettle to found and establish new populations will depend, to a large extent, on the magnitude of inbreeding depression. We performed a series of greenhouse and field experiments to determine the magnitude of inbreeding depression in S. carolinense, whether inbreeding depression varies by family, and whether the estimates of inbreeding depression vary under field and greenhouse conditions. We performed a series of controlled self- and cross-pollinations on 16 genets collected from a large population in Pennsylvania to obtain progeny with different levels of inbreeding. We grew the selfed and outcrossed progeny in the greenhouse and under field conditions and recorded various measures of growth and reproductive output. Results In the greenhouse study we found (1 a reduction in flower, fruit and seed production per fruit in inbred (selfed progeny when compared to outbred (outcrossed progeny; (2 a reduction in growth of resprouts obtained from rhizome cuttings of selfed progeny; and (3 an increase in the ability to self-fertilize in the selfed progeny. In the field, we found that (1 outcrossed progeny produced more leaves than their selfed siblings; (2 herbivory seems to add little to inbreeding depression; and (3 outcrossed plants grew faster and were able to set more fruits than selfed plants. Conclusion Solanum carolinense experiences low levels of inbreeding depression under greenhouse conditions and slightly more inbreeding depression under our field conditions. The combined effects of low levels of inbreeding depression and plasticity in the strength of SI suggest that the production of selfed progeny may play an

  1. Frailty Index Predicts All-Cause Mortality for Middle-Aged and Older Taiwanese: Implications for Active-Aging Programs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Shu-Yu; Lee, Wei-Ju; Chou, Ming-Yueh; Peng, Li-Ning; Chiou, Shu-Ti; Chen, Liang-Kung

    2016-01-01

    Frailty Index, defined as an individual's accumulated proportion of listed health-related deficits, is a well-established metric used to assess the health status of old adults; however, it has not yet been developed in Taiwan, and its local related structure factors remain unclear. The objectives were to construct a Taiwan Frailty Index to predict mortality risk, and to explore the structure of its factors. Analytic data on 1,284 participants aged 53 and older were excerpted from the Social Environment and Biomarkers of Aging Study (2006), in Taiwan. A consensus workgroup of geriatricians selected 159 items according to the standard procedure for creating a Frailty Index. Cox proportional hazard modeling was used to explore the association between the Taiwan Frailty Index and mortality. Exploratory factor analysis was used to identify structure factors and produce a shorter version-the Taiwan Frailty Index Short-Form. During an average follow-up of 4.3 ± 0.8 years, 140 (11%) subjects died. Compared to those in the lowest Taiwan Frailty Index tertile ( 0.23) had significantly higher risk of death (Hazard ratio: 3.2; 95% CI 1.9-5.4). Thirty-five items of five structure factors identified by exploratory factor analysis, included: physical activities, life satisfaction and financial status, health status, cognitive function, and stresses. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (C-statistics) of the Taiwan Frailty Index and its Short-Form were 0.80 and 0.78, respectively, with no statistically significant difference between them. Although both the Taiwan Frailty Index and Short-Form were associated with mortality, the Short-Form, which had similar accuracy in predicting mortality as the full Taiwan Frailty Index, would be more expedient in clinical practice and community settings to target frailty screening and intervention.

  2. Predicting forested catchment evapotranspiration and streamflow from stand sapwood area and Aridity Index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lane, Patrick

    2016-04-01

    Estimating the water balance of ungauged catchments has been the subject of decades of research. An extension of the fundamental problem of estimating the hydrology is then understanding how do changes in catchment attributes affect the water balance component? This is a particular issue in forest hydrology where vegetation exerts such a strong influence on evapotranspiration (ET), and consequent streamflow (Q). Given the primacy of trees in the water balance, and the potential for change to species and density through logging, fire, pests and diseases and drought, methods that directly relate ET/Q to vegetation structure, species, and stand density are very powerful. Plot studies on tree water use routinely use sapwood area (SA) to calculate transpiration and upscale to the stand/catchment scale. Recent work in south eastern Australian forests have found stand-wide SA to be linearly correlated (R2 = 0.89) with long term mean annual loss (P-Q), and hence, long term mean annual catchment streamflow. Robust relationships can be built between basal area (BA), tree density and stand SA. BA and density are common forest inventory measurements. Until now, no research has related the fundamental stand attribute of SA to streamflow. The data sets include catchments that have been thinned and with varying age classes. Thus far these analyses have been for energy limited systems in wetter forest types. SA has proven to be a more robust biometric than leaf area index which varies seasonally. That long term ET/Q is correlated with vegetation conforms to the Budyko framework. Use of a downscaled (20 m) Aridity Index (AI) has shown distinct correlations with stand SA, and therefore T. Structural patterns at a the hillslope scale not only correlate with SA and T, but also with interception (I) and forest floor evaporation (Es). These correlations between AI and I and Es have given R2 > 0.8. The result of these studies suggest an ability to estimate mean annual ET fluxes at sub

  3. First-trimester measurement of the ductus venosus pulsatility index and the prediction of congenital heart defects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Timmerman, E.; Clur, S. A.; Pajkrt, E.; Bilardo, C. M.

    2010-01-01

    Objective This study was carried out to evaluate the additional predictive value of ductus venosus pulsatility index for veins (DV-PIV) in the identification of congenital heart defects (CHDs) in fetuses with an enlarged nuchal translucency (NT) and a normal karyotype. Methods All chromosomally

  4. Interactions between MAOA Genotype and Receipt of Public Assistance: Predicting Change in Depressive Symptoms and Body Mass Index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marmorstein, Naomi R.; Hart, Daniel

    2011-01-01

    Response to stress is determined in part by genetically influenced regulation of the monoamine system (MAOA). We examined the interaction of a stressor (receipt of public assistance) and a gene regulating MAOA in the prediction of change in adolescent depressive symptoms and body mass index (BMI). Participants were drawn from the National…

  5. Limited accuracy of the hyperbaric index, ambulatory blood pressure and sphygmomanometry measurements in predicting gestational hypertension and preeclampsia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vollebregt, Karlijn Corien; Gisolf, Janneke; Guelen, Ilja; Boer, Kees; van Montfrans, Gert; Wolf, Hans

    2010-01-01

    Objective The aim of this study was to validate the hyperbaric index (HBI) for first trimester prediction of preeclampsia and gestational hypertension. Methods Participants were low-risk and high-risk nulliparous women and high-risk multiparous women, and were recruited between April 2004 and June

  6. Generalizability of the Disease State Index Prediction Model for Identifying Patients Progressing from Mild Cognitive Impairment to Alzheimer's Disease

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hall, A.; Munoz-Ruiz, M.; Mattila, J.; Koikkalainen, J.; Tsolaki, M.; Mecocci, P.; Kloszewska, I.; Vellas, B.; Lovestone, S.; Visser, P.J.; Lotjonen, J.; Soininen, H.

    2015-01-01

    Background: The Disease State Index (DSI) prediction model measures the similarity of patient data to diagnosed stable and progressive mild cognitive impairment (MCI) cases to identify patients who are progressing to Alzheimer's disease. Objectives: We evaluated how well the DSI generalizes across

  7. FoldIndex((c)) : a simple tool to predict whether a given protein sequence is intrinsically unfolded

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Prilusky, J; Felder, CE; Zeev-Ben-Mordehai, T; Rydberg, EH; Man, O; Beckmann, J.S.; Silman, I.; Sussman, J.L.

    2005-01-01

    An easy-to-use, versatile and freely available graphic web server, FoldIndex© is described: it predicts if a given protein sequence is intrinsically unfolded implementing the algorithm of Uversky and co-workers, which is based on the average residue hydrophobicity and net charge of the sequence.

  8. Changes in the Oswestry Disability Index that predict improvement after lumbar fusion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Djurasovic, Mladen; Glassman, Steven D; Dimar, John R; Crawford, Charles H; Bratcher, Kelly R; Carreon, Leah Y

    2012-11-01

    Clinical studies use both disease-specific and generic health outcomes measures. Disease-specific measures focus on health domains most relevant to the clinical population, while generic measures assess overall health-related quality of life. There is little information about which domains of the Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) are most important in determining improvement in overall health-related quality of life, as measured by the 36-Item Short Form Health Survey (SF-36), after lumbar spinal fusion. The objective of the study is to determine which clinical elements assessed by the ODI most influence improvement of overall health-related quality of life. A single tertiary spine center database was used to identify patients undergoing lumbar fusion for standard degenerative indications. Patients with complete preoperative and 2-year outcomes measures were included. Pearson correlation was used to assess the relationship between improvement in each item of the ODI with improvement in the SF-36 physical component summary (PCS) score, as well as achievement of the SF-36 PCS minimum clinically important difference (MCID). Multivariate regression modeling was used to examine which items of the ODI best predicted achievement for the SF-36 PCS MCID. The effect size and standardized response mean were calculated for each of the items of the ODI. A total of 1104 patients met inclusion criteria (674 female and 430 male patients). The mean age at surgery was 57 years. All items of the ODI showed significant correlations with the change in SF-36 PCS score and achievement of MCID for the SF-36 PCS, but only pain intensity, walking, and social life had r values > 0.4 reflecting moderate correlation. These 3 variables were also the dimensions that were independent predictors of the SF-36 PCS, and they were the only dimensions that had effect sizes and standardized response means that were moderate to large. Of the health dimensions measured by the ODI, pain intensity, walking

  9. [Predictive accuracy of body mass index in estimating body fatness measured by bioelectrical impedance].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrasco, Fernando; Reyes, Eliana; Rimler, Olga; Rios, Francisca

    2004-09-01

    The aim of this study was to determinate the performance of body mass index (BMI) for the diagnosis of obesity and as a predictor of body fatness in adult Chilean subjects. We conducted a study in 433 women (18-73 years old; BMI: 19.7 to 69.7 kg/m2) and 264 men (18-83 y.; BMI: 19.1 to 54.8 kg/m2). Bioelectrical resistance was measured by impedance method and fat mass percent (FM%) was calculated by fatness-specific equations developed by Segal et al. Obesity was defined as a BMI of at least 30 kg/m2. Increased fatness was defined by the FM% cut-off points of at least 25% for men and at least 30% for women. Sixty-four percent of women and 23.6% of men with BMI below 30 kg/m2 had FM% higher than 30% and 25%, respectively. A value of BMI of 26 kg/m2 in women and 30 kg/m2 in men had the best agreement to the cut-off points of fatness according to sensitivity vs. specificity analysis The following equations were developed to predict individual fatness: women FM% = 0.96 x BMI + 0.154 x age + 1.44 (r2 = 0.75; standard error 3.8%); men FM% = 0.99 x BMI + 0.141 x age - 9.914 (r2 = 0.66; standard error 4.4%). Differences between measured and predicted FM% presented a wide variation, with a range of +/- 2 sd of 7.5% in women and 8.8% in men. The commonly used value of BMI 330 kg/m2 as a cut-off point for obesity does not have adequate sensitivity and specificity for the screening of increased fatness subjects, specially in women. In this study BMI shows a low reliability as a predictor of individual body fatness, particularly in men and in subjects with a BMI below 30 kg/m2.

  10. Body Mass Index z-Scores and Weight Status Predict Conduct Disorder Symptoms in Adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vannucci, Anna; Ohannessian, Christine McCauley

    2017-11-01

    The goal of the study was to examine whether baseline body mass index (BMI) z-scores and weight status predicted conduct disorder (CD) symptoms in 368 adolescents (15-17 years). Participants in the 10th and 11th grades completed self-report questionnaires at baseline and at a 2-year follow-up. Baseline BMI z-scores and weight status were derived from self-reports of height and weight. CD symptoms were assessed using a symptom checklist. Covariates included baseline demographics, depressive symptoms, alcohol consumption, drug use, and a retrospective report of CD symptoms before age 15 years. A cubic association was observed between baseline BMI z-scores and follow-up CD symptoms (p = .047), such that a positive association emerged only among adolescents with BMI z-scores of greater than ∼1.5. Adolescents who were obese at baseline reported more follow-up CD symptoms than nonoverweight adolescents (p = .008). Higher baseline BMI z-scores were associated with increased odds of endorsing probable CD at follow-up (p's < .03). Obese adolescents were more likely to report the presence of probable CD at follow-up than overweight and nonoverweight adolescents (p's ≤ .01). Findings suggest that nutritional status, particularly high BMI z-scores and obese weight status, may contribute to elevated CD symptoms during adolescence, which should be dually addressed in screening and intervention efforts. Copyright © 2017 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Predictive validity of a brief antiretroviral adherence index: Retrospective cohort analysis under conditions of repetitive administration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Colwell Bradford

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Newer antiretroviral (ARV agents have improved pharmacokinetics, potency, and tolerability and have enabled the design of regimens with improved virologic outcomes. Successful antiretroviral therapy is dependent on patient adherence. In previous research, we validated a subset of items from the ACTG adherence battery as prognostic of virologic suppression at 6 months and correlated with adherence estimates from the Medication Event Monitoring System (MEMS. The objective of the current study was to validate the longitudinal use of the Owen Clinic adherence index in analyses of time to initial virologic suppression and maintenance of suppression. Results 278 patients (naïve n = 168, experienced n = 110 met inclusion criteria. Median [range] time on the first regimen during the study period was 286 (30 – 1221 days. 217 patients (78% achieved an undetectable plasma viral load (pVL at median 63 days. 8.3% (18/217 of patients experienced viral rebound (pVL > 400 after initial suppression. Adherence scores varied from 0 – 25 (mean 1.06, median 0. The lowest detectable adherence score cut point using this instrument was ≥ 5 for both initial suppression and maintenance of suppression. In the final Cox model of time to first undetectable pVL, controlling for prior treatment experience and baseline viral load, the adjusted hazard ratio for time updated adherence score was 0.36score ≥ 5 (95% CI: 0.19–0.69 [reference: score ≥ 5 (0.05–0.66 [reference: Conclusion A brief, longitudinally administered self report adherence instrument predicted both initial virologic suppression and maintenance of suppression in patients using contemporary ARV regimens. The survey can be used for identification of sub-optimal adherence with subsequent appropriate intervention.

  12. Racial Discrimination and Low Household Education Predict Higher Body Mass Index in African American Youth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Devin S; Gerras, Julia M; McGlumphy, Kellye C; Shaver, Erika R; Gill, Amaanat K; Kanneganti, Kamala; Ajibewa, Tiwaloluwa A; Hasson, Rebecca E

    The purpose of this study was to examine the relationships between environmental factors, including household education, community violence exposure, racial discrimination, and cultural identity, and BMI in African American adolescents. A community-based sample of 198 African American youth (120 girls, 78 boys; ages 11-19 years) from Washtenaw County, Michigan, were included in this analysis. Violence exposure was assessed by using the Survey of Children's Exposure to Community Violence; racial discrimination by using the Adolescent Discrimination Distress Index; cultural identity by using the Acculturation, Habits, and Interests Multicultural Scale for Adolescents; and household education by using a seven-category variable. Measured height and body weight were used to calculate BMI. Racial discrimination was positively associated with BMI, whereas household education was inversely associated with BMI in African American adolescents (discrimination: β = 0.11 ± 0.04, p = 0.01; education: β = -1.13 ± 0.47, p = 0.02). These relationships were significant when accounting for the confounding effects of stress, activity, diet, and pubertal development. Significant gender interactions were observed with racial discrimination and low household education associated with BMI in girls only (discrimination: β = 0.16 ± 0.05, p = 0.003; education: β = -1.12 ± 0.55, p = 0.045). There were no significant relationships between culture, community violence exposure, and BMI (all p's > 0.05). Environmental factors, including racial discrimination and low household education, predicted higher BMI in African American adolescents, particularly among girls. Longitudinal studies are needed to better understand the mechanisms by which these environmental factors increase obesity risk in African American youth.

  13. The Drug Derived Complexity Index (DDCI Predicts Mortality, Unplanned Hospitalization and Hospital Readmissions at the Population Level.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabio Robusto

    Full Text Available to develop and validate the Drug Derived Complexity Index (DDCI, a predictive model derived from drug prescriptions able to stratify the general population according to the risk of death, unplanned hospital admission, and readmission, and to compare the new predictive index with the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI.Population-based cohort study, using a record-linkage analysis of prescription databases, hospital discharge records, and the civil registry. The predictive model was developed based on prescription patterns indicative of chronic diseases, using a random sample of 50% of the population. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression was used to assess weights of different prescription patterns and drug classes. The predictive properties of the DDCI were confirmed in the validation cohort, represented by the other half of the population. The performance of DDCI was compared to the CCI in terms of calibration, discrimination and reclassification.6 local health authorities with 2.0 million citizens aged 40 years or above.One year and overall mortality rates, unplanned hospitalization rates and hospital readmission rates progressively increased with increasing DDCI score. In the overall population, the model including age, gender and DDCI showed a high performance. DDCI predicted 1-year mortality, overall mortality and unplanned hospitalization with an accuracy of 0.851, 0.835, and 0.584, respectively. If compared to CCI, DDCI showed discrimination and reclassification properties very similar to the CCI, and improved prediction when used in combination with the CCI.DDCI is a reliable prognostic index, able to stratify the entire population into homogeneous risk groups. DDCI can represent an useful tool for risk-adjustment, policy planning, and the identification of patients needing a focused approach in everyday practice.

  14. [Can preoperative prostate MRI before radical prostatectomy predict extracapsular extension and the side of the index lesion?].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albisinni, S; De Groote, A; Deneft, F; Thoma, P; Catteau, X; Roumeguère, T; Wildschutz, T

    2016-04-01

    To evaluate the role of preoperative multi-parametric magnetic resonance imaging (MP-MRI) in patients undergoing radical prostatectomy. Specifically, the accuracy of MP-MRI in detecting extracapsular extension (ECE) and individuating the side of the index lesion have been explored. Thirty-five consecutive patients undergoing radical prostatectomy have been retrospectively analyzed. The MRI exam incorporated T2-weighted imaging, diffusion-weighted imaging and dynamic contrast enhancement in all patients. χ(2) test was performed to assess an association between an MP-MRI suggestive of ECE and pathologic ECE; similar tests were performed to study the association between the MRI-detected side of the index lesion and its true localization on final pathology. Univariate logistic regression models were constructed to evaluate possible predictors of ECE, including MP-MRI suspected ECE. Seventeen percent (6/35) of men presented ECE on final pathology. MP-MRI was predictive of pathologic ECE with a negative predictive value and specificity of 93% and 90%, respectively. Global accuracy of MP-MRI in predicting ECE was 86%. MRI-detected ECE was significantly predictive of pathologic ECE on logistic regression (OR: 17.3, 95% CI: 2.2-138.2, P=0.007). Moreover, MRI significantly predicted the side of the index lesion (P=0.012). In this single center cohort, preoperative MP-MRI was significantly predictive of ECE and side of the index lesion. Further studies are necessary to individuate patients who can benefit from preoperative MP-MRI. 5. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  15. Extravascular lung water and pulmonary vascular permeability index as markers predictive of postoperative acute respiratory distress syndrome: a prospective cohort investigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kor, Daryl J; Warner, David O; Carter, Rickey E; Meade, Laurie A; Wilson, Greg A; Li, Man; Hamersma, Marvin J; Hubmayr, Rolf D; Mauermann, William J; Gajic, Ognjen

    2015-03-01

    Robust markers of subclinical perioperative lung injury are lacking. Extravascular lung water indexed to predicted body weight and pulmonary vascular permeability index are two promising early markers of lung edema. We aimed to evaluate whether extravascular lung water indexed to predicted body weight and pulmonary vascular permeability index would identify patients at risk for clinically significant postoperative pulmonary edema, particularly resulting from the acute respiratory distress syndrome. Prospective cohort study. Tertiary care academic medical center. Adults undergoing high-risk cardiac or aortic vascular surgery (or both) with risk of acute respiratory distress syndrome. None. Extravascular lung water indexed to predicted body weight and pulmonary vascular permeability index measurements were obtained intraoperatively and in the early postoperative period. We assessed the accuracy of peak extravascular lung water indexed to predicted body weight and pulmonary vascular permeability index as predictive markers of clinically significant pulmonary edema (defined as acute respiratory distress syndrome or cardiogenic pulmonary edema) using area under the receiver-operating characteristic curves. Associations between extravascular lung water indexed to predicted body weight and pulmonary vascular permeability patient-important with important outcomes were assessed. Of 150 eligible patients, 132 patients (88%) had extravascular lung water indexed to predicted body weight and pulmonary vascular permeability index measurements. Of these, 13 patients (9.8%) had postoperative acute respiratory distress syndrome and 15 patients (11.4%) had cardiogenic pulmonary edema. Extravascular lung water indexed to predicted body weight effectively predicted development of clinically significant pulmonary edema (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.70-0.89). Pulmonary vascular permeability index discriminated acute respiratory distress

  16. Prediction of SYM-H index during large storms by NARX neural network from IMF and solar wind data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Cai

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Similar to the Dst index, the SYM-H index may also serve as an indicator of magnetic storm intensity, but having distinct advantage of higher time-resolution. In this study the NARX neural network has been used for the first time to predict SYM-H index from solar wind (SW and IMF parameters. In total 73 time intervals of great storm events with IMF/SW data available from ACE satellite during 1998 to 2006 are used to establish the ANN model. Out of them, 67 are used to train the network and the other 6 samples for test. Additionally, the NARX prediction model is also validated using IMF/SW data from WIND satellite for 7 great storms during 1995–1997 and 2005, as well as for the July 2000 Bastille day storm and November 2001 superstorm using Geotail and OMNI data at 1 AU, respectively. Five interplanetary parameters of IMF Bz, By and total B components along with proton density and velocity of solar wind are used as the original external inputs of the neural network to predict the SYM-H index about one hour ahead. For the 6 test storms registered by ACE including two super-storms of min. SYM-H<−200 nT, the correlation coefficient between observed and NARX network predicted SYM-H is 0.95 as a whole, even as high as 0.95 and 0.98 with average relative variance of 13.2% and 7.4%, respectively, for the two super-storms. The prediction for the 7 storms with WIND data is also satisfactory, showing averaged correlation coefficient about 0.91 and RMSE of 14.2 nT. The newly developed NARX model shows much better capability than Elman network for SYM-H prediction, which can partly be attributed to a key feedback to the input layer from the output neuron with a suitable length (about 120 min. This feedback means that nearly real information of the ring current status is effectively directed to take part in the prediction of SYM-H index by ANN. The proper history length of the output-feedback may mainly reflect

  17. Prediction of SYM-H index during large storms by NARX neural network from IMF and solar wind data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Cai

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Similar to the Dst index, the SYM-H index may also serve as an indicator of magnetic storm intensity, but having distinct advantage of higher time-resolution. In this study the NARX neural network has been used for the first time to predict SYM-H index from solar wind (SW and IMF parameters. In total 73 time intervals of great storm events with IMF/SW data available from ACE satellite during 1998 to 2006 are used to establish the ANN model. Out of them, 67 are used to train the network and the other 6 samples for test. Additionally, the NARX prediction model is also validated using IMF/SW data from WIND satellite for 7 great storms during 1995–1997 and 2005, as well as for the July 2000 Bastille day storm and November 2001 superstorm using Geotail and OMNI data at 1 AU, respectively. Five interplanetary parameters of IMF Bz, By and total B components along with proton density and velocity of solar wind are used as the original external inputs of the neural network to predict the SYM-H index about one hour ahead. For the 6 test storms registered by ACE including two super-storms of min. SYM-H<−200 nT, the correlation coefficient between observed and NARX network predicted SYM-H is 0.95 as a whole, even as high as 0.95 and 0.98 with average relative variance of 13.2% and 7.4%, respectively, for the two super-storms. The prediction for the 7 storms with WIND data is also satisfactory, showing averaged correlation coefficient about 0.91 and RMSE of 14.2 nT. The newly developed NARX model shows much better capability than Elman network for SYM-H prediction, which can partly be attributed to a key feedback to the input layer from the output neuron with a suitable length (about 120 min. This feedback means that nearly real information of the ring current status is effectively directed to take part in the prediction of SYM-H index by ANN. The proper history length of the output-feedback may mainly reflect on average the characteristic time of ring

  18. Investigating inbreeding depression for heat stress tolerance in the model organism Drosophila melanogaster

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Kamilla Sofie; Pedersen, Louise Dybdahl; Sørensen, Anders Christian

    2012-01-01

    Mating between closely related individuals often causes reduced fitness, which is termed ‘inbreeding depression’. Inbreeding is, therefore, a threat towards the persistence of animal and plant populations. Here we present methods and results from a practical for high-school and first-year univers......Mating between closely related individuals often causes reduced fitness, which is termed ‘inbreeding depression’. Inbreeding is, therefore, a threat towards the persistence of animal and plant populations. Here we present methods and results from a practical for high-school and first...... into vials before exposure to 38°C heat stress in a water bath for 1 h. Half an hour later the number of comatose inbred and control flies were scored and chi-square statistic procedures were used to test for different degrees of heat stress tolerance between the two lines of flies. The practical introduces...

  19. Demographic consequences of inbreeding and outbreeding in Arnica montana: a field experiment.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Luijten, S.H.; Kery, M.; Oostermeijer, J.G.B.; den Nijs, J.C.M.

    2002-01-01

    1. The genetic constitution of populations may significantly affect demography. Founder populations or isolated remnants may show inbreeding depression, while established populations can be strongly adapted to the local environment. Gene exchange between populations can lead to better performance if

  20. QTL mapping of inbreeding-related cold sensitivity and conditional lethality in Drosophila melanogaster

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vermeulen, Corneel J.; Bijlsma, R.; Loeschcke, Volker

    2008-01-01

    of inbreeding-related and conditionally expressed lethality in Drosophila melanogaster. The lethal effect was triggered by exposure to a cold shock. We used a North Carolina crossing Design 3 to establish the mapping population, as well as to estimate the average dominance ratio and heritability. We found two......Inbreeding depression is a central theme within genetics, and is of specific interest for researchers within evolutionary and conservation genetics and animal and plant breeding. Inbreeding effects are thought to be caused by the joint expression of conditional and unconditional deleterious alleles....... Whenever the expression of deleterious alleles is conditional, this can result in extreme environmental sensitivity in certain inbred lineages. Analysis of conditional lethal effects can reveal some of the loci that are sensitive to inbreeding. We performed a QTL (quantitative trait locus) mapping study...

  1. The Self-Regulation Effect of Fertility Status on Inbreeding Aversion: When Fertile, Disgust Increases more in Response to Descriptions of One's Own than of Others' Inbreeding

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Antfolk

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The ovulatory shift modulates emotions related to female sexuality. Because fertility status only affects the individual's own opportunity cost, the adaptive value of this shift is expected to stem from self-regulation. To test this assumption we asked women to contemplate various inbreeding descriptions: 1 they themselves having sex with male relatives; 2 their sister having sex with their common male relatives; and 3 an unrelated woman having sex with her male relatives (in 1, but not 2 and 3, negative fitness consequences are affected by the participant's fertility. We dichotomized the dependent variable disgust (ceiling vs. non-ceiling and analyzed the interaction between fertility status and description type. The ovulatory shift was stronger in descriptions where they themselves were described as engaging in inbreeding. A smaller increase was also found in reactions to others engaging in inbreeding. We explain the latter effect as due to self-reflection.

  2. The self-regulation effect of fertility status on inbreeding aversion: when fertile, disgust increases more in response to descriptions of one's own than of others' inbreeding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antfolk, Jan; Lieberman, Debra; Albrecht, Anna; Santtila, Pekka

    2014-06-09

    The ovulatory shift modulates emotions related to female sexuality. Because fertility status only affects the individual's own opportunity cost, the adaptive value of this shift is expected to stem from self-regulation. To test this assumption we asked women to contemplate various inbreeding descriptions: 1) they themselves having sex with male relatives; 2) their sister having sex with their common male relatives; and 3) an unrelated woman having sex with her male relatives (in 1, but not 2 and 3, negative fitness consequences are affected by the participant's fertility). We dichotomized the dependent variable disgust (ceiling vs. non-ceiling) and analyzed the interaction between fertility status and description type. The ovulatory shift was stronger in descriptions where they themselves were described as engaging in inbreeding. A smaller increase was also found in reactions to others engaging in inbreeding. We explain the latter effect as due to self-reflection.

  3. Implications of nonadventitious rhizome spread on reproduction, inbreeding, and conservation for a rare grassland legume.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Severns, Paul M; Liston, Aaron; Wilson, Mark V

    2011-01-01

    Small population size, genetic diversity, and spatial patterns of vegetative spread are important aspects to consider when managing populations of rare clonal plant species. We used 5 variable nuclear simple sequence repeat nDNA loci to determine the extent of genet rhizome spread, examine the possibility of very small population sizes, and project how Bombus spp. (bumblebee) foraging may impact selfing (through geitonogamy) for a threatened lupine (Lupinus oreganus Heller) that sprawls through nonadventitious rhizomes. Genotyping identified 1 genet (27 × 13 m) that dominated about 30% of a study site, whereas 15 genets spread a maximum average distance of about 5.5 m (range 1.6 -27.1 m) and appeared to be well integrated with intervening genets. We found unexpectedly high genotype diversity, no evidence of a recent genetic bottleneck, and 5 of 6 patches had mean fixation index values that were near Hardy-Weinberg Equilibrium expectations. If the median maximum Bombus foraging distance observed in lupine patches (1.2 m) occurred within genotyped populations, a typical foraging flight would have >80% chance of occurring between different genets. Our study demonstrates that inferences associated with clonality, small population size, and inbreeding depression should be directly evaluated for rare vegetatively spreading plants.

  4. Evaluation of 99 S/sub 1/ lines of maize for inbreeding depression

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahmad, M.; Khan, S.; Ahmad, F.; Shah, N.H.; Akhtar, N.

    2010-01-01

    The research was conducted to evaluate the performance of S1 lines for inbreeding depression regarding different parameters, using maize variety Azam. The maize variety was self-pollinated for one generation in spring season and in the next sowing season 99 S1 lines obtained from selfing was sown with a parental line. Days to silking, pollen-shedding, plant height , ear-height, ear-length, ear-diameter, number of ears/row, kernel rows/ear and 100 kernel weight showed inbreeding depression with varying degrees while yield kg/ha showed severe inbreeding depression with an average of 362.08 kg/ha. Average value of inbreeding depression for days to silking and pollen-shedding was calculated as 2.02 and 2.21 days, respectively. Average values of inbreeding depression for plant height and ear-height were recorded as 21.50 cm and 4.87 cm, respectively. While, for earlength, ear-diameter, number of ears/row, kernel rows/ear and 100 grain weight, the average value of inbreeding depression was recorded as 1.80 cm, 0.2 cm, 2.5, 2.11 and 3.89 g, respectively. Grain yield was positively and significantly correlated with plant height, ear height and yield components. Maturity traits were positively and significantly linked with each other. It is concluded that by subjecting the maize to self-pollination nearly all the lines were affected; however, some lines were affected severely and others tolerated inbreeding to some extent. The lines showing tolerance against inbreeding depression was selected for further maize breeding. (author)

  5. Better Fitness in Captive Cuvier’s Gazelle despite Inbreeding Increase: Evidence of Purging?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreno, Eulalia; Pérez-González, Javier; Carranza, Juan; Moya-Laraño, Jordi

    2015-01-01

    Captive breeding of endangered species often aims at preserving genetic diversity and to avoid the harmful effects of inbreeding. However, deleterious alleles causing inbreeding depression can be purged when inbreeding persists over several generations. Despite its great importance both for evolutionary biology and for captive breeding programmes, few studies have addressed whether and to which extent purging may occur. Here we undertake a longitudinal study with the largest captive population of Cuvier's gazelle managed under a European Endangered Species Programme since 1975. Previous results in this population have shown that highly inbred mothers tend to produce more daughters, and this fact was used in 2006 to reach a more appropriate sex-ratio in this polygynous species by changing the pairing strategy (i.e., pairing some inbred females instead of keeping them as surplus individuals in the population). Here, by using studbook data we explore whether purging has occurred in the population by investigating whether after the change in pairing strategy a) inbreeding and homozygosity increased at the population level, b) fitness (survival) increased, and c) the relationship between inbreeding and juvenile survival, was positive. Consistent with the existence of purging, we found an increase in inbreeding coefficients, homozygosity and juvenile survival. In addition, we showed that in the course of the breeding programme the relationship between inbreeding and juvenile survival was not uniform but rather changed over time: it was negative in the early years, flat in the middle years and positive after the change in pairing strategy. We highlight that by allowing inbred individuals to mate in captive stocks we may favour sex-ratio bias towards females, a desirable managing strategy to reduce the surplus of males that force most zoos to use ethical culling and euthanizing management tools. We discuss these possibilities but also acknowledge that many other effects

  6. Inbreeding effects on in vitro embryo production traits in Guzerá cattle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perez, B C; Balieiro, J C C; Ventura, R V; Bruneli, F A T; Peixoto, M G C D

    2017-11-01

    Inbreeding has been associated with the impairment of reproductive performance in many cattle breeds. Although the usage of reproductive biotechnologies has been increasing in bovine populations, not much attention has been given to the impact of inbreeding over cow's performance on artificial reproduction. The objective of this study was to estimate the impact of inbreeding on in vitro embryo production in a Guzerá breed population. The inbreeding coefficient (F), calculated as half of the co-ancestry of the individual's parents, was used as an estimate of inbreeding. The inbreeding coefficients of the donor, sire (used on in vitro fertilization) and of the embryos were included, separately, in the proposed models either as classificatory or continuous variables (linear and quadratic effects). The percentage of non-inbred individuals (or embryos) and mean F of donors, embryos and sires were 29.38%; 35.76%; 42.86% and 1.98±2.68; 1.32±3.13; 2.08±2.79, respectively. Two different models were considered, one for oocyte production traits and other for embryo production traits. The increase of F of the donor significantly (P0.05) effects were observed for the sire (father of the embryos) inbreeding coefficient over the traits analysed. Embryo's F influenced (Pproduction may, in the long-term, have negative implications on the number of embryos obtained per cow and increase the relative costs of the improvement programmes based on this technology. High levels of inbreeding should be avoided when selecting Guzerá female donors and planning in vitro fertilization mating.

  7. Better Fitness in Captive Cuvier's Gazelle despite Inbreeding Increase: Evidence of Purging?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eulalia Moreno

    Full Text Available Captive breeding of endangered species often aims at preserving genetic diversity and to avoid the harmful effects of inbreeding. However, deleterious alleles causing inbreeding depression can be purged when inbreeding persists over several generations. Despite its great importance both for evolutionary biology and for captive breeding programmes, few studies have addressed whether and to which extent purging may occur. Here we undertake a longitudinal study with the largest captive population of Cuvier's gazelle managed under a European Endangered Species Programme since 1975. Previous results in this population have shown that highly inbred mothers tend to produce more daughters, and this fact was used in 2006 to reach a more appropriate sex-ratio in this polygynous species by changing the pairing strategy (i.e., pairing some inbred females instead of keeping them as surplus individuals in the population. Here, by using studbook data we explore whether purging has occurred in the population by investigating whether after the change in pairing strategy a inbreeding and homozygosity increased at the population level, b fitness (survival increased, and c the relationship between inbreeding and juvenile survival, was positive. Consistent with the existence of purging, we found an increase in inbreeding coefficients, homozygosity and juvenile survival. In addition, we showed that in the course of the breeding programme the relationship between inbreeding and juvenile survival was not uniform but rather changed over time: it was negative in the early years, flat in the middle years and positive after the change in pairing strategy. We highlight that by allowing inbred individuals to mate in captive stocks we may favour sex-ratio bias towards females, a desirable managing strategy to reduce the surplus of males that force most zoos to use ethical culling and euthanizing management tools. We discuss these possibilities but also acknowledge that many

  8. Demographic costs of inbreeding revealed by sex-specific genetic rescue effects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zajitschek Felix

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Inbreeding can slow population growth and elevate extinction risk. A small number of unrelated immigrants to an inbred population can substantially reduce inbreeding and improve fitness, but little attention has been paid to the sex-specific effects of immigrants on such "genetic rescue". We conducted two subsequent experiments to investigate demographic consequences of inbreeding and genetic rescue in guppies. Results Populations established from pairs of full siblings that were descended either from two generations of full-sibling inbreeding or unrelated outbred guppies did not grow at different rates initially, but when the first generation offspring started breeding, outbred-founded populations grew more slowly than inbred-founded populations. In a second experiment, adding two outbred males to the inbred populations resulted in significantly faster population growth than in control populations where no immigrants were added. Adding females resulted in growth at a rate intermediate to the control and male-immigrant treatments. Conclusion The slower growth of the outbred-founded than inbred-founded populations is the opposite of what would be expected under inbreeding depression unless many deleterious recessive alleles had already been selectively purged in the inbreeding that preceded the start of the experiment, and that significant inbreeding depression occurred when the first generation offspring in outbred-founded populations started to inbreed. The second experiment revealed strong inbreeding depression in the inbred founded populations, despite the apparent lack thereof in these populations earlier on. Moreover, the fact that the addition of male immigrants resulted in the highest levels of population growth suggests that sex-specific genetic rescue may occur in promiscuous species, with male rescue resulting in higher levels of outbreeding than female rescue.

  9. Waist Circumference, Body Mass Index, and Other Measures of Adiposity in Predicting Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors among Peruvian Adults

    OpenAIRE

    Knowles, K. M.; Paiva, L. L.; Sanchez, S. E.; Revilla, L.; Lopez, T.; Yasuda, M. B.; Yanez, N. D.; Gelaye, B.; Williams, M. A.

    2011-01-01

    Objectives. To examine the extent to which measures of adiposity can be used to predict selected components of metabolic syndrome (MetS) and elevated C-reactive protein (CRP). Methods. A total of 1,518 Peruvian adults were included in this study. Waist circumference (WC), body mass index (BMI), waist-hip ratio (WHR), waist-height ratio (WHtR), and visceral adiposity index (VAI) were examined. The prevalence of each MetS component was determined according to tertiles of each anthropometric mea...

  10. Prediction of fall risk reduction as measured by dynamic gait index in individuals with unilateral vestibular hypofunction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Courtney D; Schubert, Michael C; Herdman, Susan J

    2004-09-01

    To determine the effect of vestibular rehabilitation on reduction of fall risk in individuals with unilateral vestibular hypofunction and to identify those factors that predict fall risk reduction. Retrospective chart review. Tertiary referral center. Forty-seven patients with unilateral vestibular hypofunction, aged 28 to 86 years, who were at risk for falls on initial assessment. All patients underwent vestibular rehabilitation including adaptation exercises, designed to improve gaze stability, and gait and balance exercises. Fall risk (Dynamic Gait Index), visual acuity during head movements (Dynamic Visual Acuity), and subjective complaints were measured initially, at 2-week intervals, and at completion of physical therapy. As a group, the patients had significantly reduced risk for falls (p older (> or = 65 yr) and younger (adults showed significant reductions in fall risk with vestibular rehabilitation (p older adults remained at risk for falls at discharge compared with young adults (45% versus 11%). Initial Dynamic Gait Index and Dynamic Visual Acuity scores predicted fall risk reduction in patients with unilateral vestibular hypofunction. A model was developed using initial Dynamic Gait Index and Dynamic Visual Acuity scores to predict fall risk reduction. Vestibular rehabilitation is effective in significantly reducing fall risk in individuals with unilateral vestibular deficit. The model predicts fall risk reduction with good sensitivity (77%) and specificity (90%).

  11. Pernambuco index: predictability of the complexity of surgery for impacted lower third molars.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Carvalho, R W F; Vasconcelos, B C

    2018-02-01

    This study aimed to develop and validate an index of surgical difficulty for the removal of impacted lower third molars. The study was performed in two steps. The first was a cross-sectional analysis of clinical, demographic, and radiographic variables collected from patients undergoing the removal of an impacted lower third molar between 2008 and 2012. The second step was a prospective cohort study involving the same surgical procedures to validate the index; this was performed between 2013 and 2016. Univariate regression analysis was applied, followed by multiple linear regression analysis. A total of 753 surgical procedures were analyzed in the first stage, which led to the identification of the most important variables and their levels of significance. The index was then applied to 280 surgical procedures. The preoperative difficulty was in concordance with the index results in all cases. Among cases with a low level of difficulty, 93.1% had been indexed as low difficulty; likewise, among cases with a high level of difficulty, there was 87.9% concordance with the index. With the use of reference statistics in the development and quality assurance processes, this validated index has proven to be a reliable and easily applicable instrument, with high sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy. Copyright © 2017 International Association of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. THE EFFECT OF INBREEDING ON THE EARLY PERFORMANCE OF FRESHWATER PRAWN, Macrobrachium rosenbergii

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Imron Imron

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Inbreeding depression has often been considered to be responsible for the deterioration of performance in aquaculture species. Despite a crucial impact that may result from inbreeding depression, comprehensive information reviewing this subject is limited. This study was aimed to gain information on the effect of inbreeding on the early performance of freshwater prawn. The study was performed by comparing performance of inbred and outbred populations. Inbred population was established by brother-sister mating (inbreeding rate of 25% while the outbred population was formed by mating unrelated individuals. Several fitness and productivity related traits including survival, the rate of larval development, stage dispersion and growth of larvae were evaluated. Results suggest that inbred families performed poorer than that of the outbred in survival. However, inbreeding depression did not seem to occur in other traits including the rate of larval development, larval stage dispersion and growth. This study implies that to maintain genetic quality of farmed prawn stocks, inbreeding rate in farmed population must be controlled not to exceed that level. Implications that these findings may have on aquaculture practices and possible alternatives for the solutions are discussed.

  13. Inbreeding alters activities of the stress-related enzymes chitinases and β-1,3-glucanases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leimu, Roosa; Kloss, Lena; Fischer, Markus

    2012-01-01

    Pathogenesis-related proteins, chitinases (CHT) and β-1,3-glucanases (GLU), are stress proteins up-regulated as response to extrinsic environmental stress in plants. It is unknown whether these PR proteins are also influenced by inbreeding, which has been suggested to constitute intrinsic genetic stress, and which is also known to affect the ability of plants to cope with environmental stress. We investigated activities of CHT and GLU in response to inbreeding in plants from 13 Ragged Robin (Lychnis flos-cuculi) populations. We also studied whether activities of these enzymes were associated with levels of herbivore damage and pathogen infection in the populations from which the plants originated. We found an increase in pathogenesis-related protein activity in inbred plants from five out of the 13 investigated populations, which suggests that these proteins may play a role in how plants respond to intrinsic genetic stress brought about by inbreeding in some populations depending on the allele frequencies of loci affecting the expression of CHT and the past levels of inbreeding. More importantly, we found that CHT activities were higher in plants from populations with higher levels of herbivore or pathogen damage, but inbreeding reduced CHT activity in these populations disrupting the increased activities of this resistance-related enzyme in populations where high resistance is beneficial. These results provide novel information on the effects of plant inbreeding on plant-enemy interactions on a biochemical level.

  14. Inbreeding alters activities of the stress-related enzymes chitinases and β-1,3-glucanases.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roosa Leimu

    Full Text Available Pathogenesis-related proteins, chitinases (CHT and β-1,3-glucanases (GLU, are stress proteins up-regulated as response to extrinsic environmental stress in plants. It is unknown whether these PR proteins are also influenced by inbreeding, which has been suggested to constitute intrinsic genetic stress, and which is also known to affect the ability of plants to cope with environmental stress. We investigated activities of CHT and GLU in response to inbreeding in plants from 13 Ragged Robin (Lychnis flos-cuculi populations. We also studied whether activities of these enzymes were associated with levels of herbivore damage and pathogen infection in the populations from which the plants originated. We found an increase in pathogenesis-related protein activity in inbred plants from five out of the 13 investigated populations, which suggests that these proteins may play a role in how plants respond to intrinsic genetic stress brought about by inbreeding in some populations depending on the allele frequencies of loci affecting the expression of CHT and the past levels of inbreeding. More importantly, we found that CHT activities were higher in plants from populations with higher levels of herbivore or pathogen damage, but inbreeding reduced CHT activity in these populations disrupting the increased activities of this resistance-related enzyme in populations where high resistance is beneficial. These results provide novel information on the effects of plant inbreeding on plant-enemy interactions on a biochemical level.

  15. The effect of fast created inbreeding on litter size and body weights in mice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meuwissen Theo

    2005-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract This study was designed to reveal any differences in effects of fast created versus total inbreeding on reproduction and body weights in mice. A line selected for large litter size for 124 generations (H and a control line (K maintained without selection for the same number of generations were crossed (HK and used as a basis for the experiment. Within the HK cross, full sib, cousin or random mating were practised for two generations in order to create new inbreeding (IBF at a fast rate. In the first generation of systematic mating, old inbreeding was regenerated in addition to creation of new inbreeding from the mating design giving total inbreeding (IBT. The number of pups born alive (NBA and body weights of the animals were then analysed by a model including both IBT and IBF. The IBT of the dam was in the present study found to reduce the mean NBA with -0.48 (± 0.22 (p F was -0.42 (± 0.27. For the trait NBA per female mated, the effect of IBT was estimated to be -0.45 (± 0.29 per 10% increase in the inbreeding coefficient and the effect of IBF was -0.90 (± 0.37 (p F of the dam could be found on sex-ratio and body weights at three and six weeks of age in a population already adjusted for IBT.

  16. Mitigation of inbreeding while preserving genetic gain in genomic breeding programs for outbred plants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Zibei; Shi, Fan; Hayes, Ben J; Daetwyler, Hans D

    2017-05-01

    Heuristic genomic inbreeding controls reduce inbreeding in genomic breeding schemes without reducing genetic gain. Genomic selection is increasingly being implemented in plant breeding programs to accelerate genetic gain of economically important traits. However, it may cause significant loss of genetic diversity when compared with traditional schemes using phenotypic selection. We propose heuristic strategies to control the rate of inbreeding in outbred plants, which can be categorised into three types: controls during mate allocation, during selection, and simultaneous selection and mate allocation. The proposed mate allocation measure GminF allocates two or more parents for mating in mating groups that minimise coancestry using a genomic relationship matrix. Two types of relationship-adjusted genomic breeding values for parent selection candidates ([Formula: see text]) and potential offspring ([Formula: see text]) are devised to control inbreeding during selection and even enabling simultaneous selection and mate allocation. These strategies were tested in a case study using a simulated perennial ryegrass breeding scheme. As compared to the genomic selection scheme without controls, all proposed strategies could significantly decrease inbreeding while achieving comparable genetic gain. In particular, the scenario using [Formula: see text] in simultaneous selection and mate allocation reduced inbreeding to one-third of the original genomic selection scheme. The proposed strategies are readily applicable in any outbred plant breeding program.

  17. EFFECT OF INBREEDING ON PRE-WEANING GROWTH TRAITS IN THALLI SHEEP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. HUSSAIN, P. AKHTAR, S. ALI, M. YOUNAS1 AND M. SHAFIQ2

    2006-07-01

    Full Text Available Pedigree records of 17250 Thalli sheep with 17030 lambings maintained at the Livestock Experiment Station, Rakh Ghulaman, Distt. Bhakkar, Pakistan during the period from 1975 to 2004 were utilized in the present study. Average values for birth weight, weights at 60 and 90 days of age, weaning weight and pre-weaning average daily gain were 4.11 ± 0.82, 11.58 ± 3.57, 14.92 ± 4.56, 18.95 ± 4.56 and 0.12 ± 0.04 kg, respectively. Coefficients of inbreeding ranged from 10.15 to 37.50 percent for 295 animals, being 1.70 percent of the flock. Inbreeding significantly (P<0.01 affected birth and 60 days weight. Birth weight and 60 days weight decreased by 0.051 and 0.048 kg for each 1 percent increase in the level of inbreeding. However, inbreeding had non significant effect on weight at 90 days of age, weaning weight and pre-weaning average daily gain. The regression values for these traits were 0.010, 0.083 and 0.105, respectively. It was concluded that inbreeding showed deleterious effects only in early stages of life but as the lambs grew older the effect of inbreeding on pre-weaning traits diminished.

  18. The effects of inbreeding on disease susceptibility: Gyrodactylus turnbulli infection of guppies, Poecilia reticulata.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smallbone, Willow; van Oosterhout, Cock; Cable, Jo

    2016-08-01

    Inbreeding can threaten population persistence by reducing disease resistance through the accelerated loss of gene diversity (i.e. heterozygosity). Such inbreeding depression can affect many different fitness-related traits, including survival, reproductive success, and parasite susceptibility. Empirically quantifying the effects of inbreeding on parasite resistance is therefore important for ex-situ conservation of vertebrates. The present study evaluates the disease susceptibility of individuals bred under three different breeding regimes (inbred, crossed with full siblings; control, randomly crossed mating; and fully outbred). Specifically, we examined the relationship between inbreeding coefficient (F-coefficient) and susceptibility to Gyrodactylus turnbulli infection in a live bearing vertebrate, the guppy Poecilia reticulata. Host-breeding regime significantly affected the trajectories of parasite population growth on individual fish. Inbred fish showed significantly higher mean parasite intensity than fish from the control and outbred breeding regimes, and in addition, inbred fish were slower in purging their gyrodactylid infections. We discuss the role of inbreeding on the various arms of the immune system, and argue that the increased disease susceptibility of inbred individuals could contribute to the extinction vortex. This is one of the first studies to quantify the effects of inbreeding and breeding regime on disease susceptibility in a captive bred vertebrate of wild origin, and it highlights the risks faced by small (captive-bred) populations when exposed to their native parasites. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Predictive performance of the visceral adiposity index for a visceral adiposity-related risk: Type 2 Diabetes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Azizi Fereidoun

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Visceral adiposity index (VAI has recently been developed based on waist circumference, body mass index (BMI, triglycerides (TGs, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C. We examined predictive performances for incident diabetes of the VAI per se and as compared to the metabolic syndrome (MetS and waist-to-height-ratio (WHtR. Methods Participants free of diabetes at baseline with at least one follow-up examination (5,964 were included for the current study. Weibull regression models were developed for interval-censored survival data. Absolute and relative integrated discriminatory improvement index (IDI and cut-point-based and cut-point-free net reclassification improvement index (NRI were used as measures of predictive ability for incident diabetes added by VAI, as compared to the MetS and WHtR. Results The annual incidence rate of diabetes was 0.85 per 1000 person. Mean VAI was 3.06 (95%CIs 2.99-3.13. Diabetes risk factors levels increased in stepwise fashion across VAI quintiles. Risk gradient between the highest and lowest quintile of VAI was 4.5 (95%CIs 3.0-6.9. VAI significantly improved predictive ability of the MetS. The relative IDI and cut-point free NRI for predictive ability added to MetS by VAI were 30.3% (95%CIs 18.8-41.8% and 30.7% (95%CIs 20.8-40.7%, respectively. WHtR, outperformed VAI with cut-point-free NRI of 24.6% (95%CIs 14.1-35.2%. Conclusions In conclusion, although VAI could be a prognostic tool for incident diabetes events, gathering information on its components (WC, BMI, TGs, and HDL-C is unlikely to improve the prediction ability beyond what could be achieved by the simply assessable and commonly available information on WHtR.

  20. Generation of a predictive melphalan resistance index by drug screen of B-cell cancer cell lines.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Boegsted

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Recent reports indicate that in vitro drug screens combined with gene expression profiles (GEP of cancer cell lines may generate informative signatures predicting the clinical outcome of chemotherapy. In multiple myeloma (MM a range of new drugs have been introduced and now challenge conventional therapy including high dose melphalan. Consequently, the generation of predictive signatures for response to melphalan may have a clinical impact. The hypothesis is that melphalan screens and GEPs of B-cell cancer cell lines combined with multivariate statistics may provide predictive clinical information. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Microarray based GEPs and a melphalan growth inhibition screen of 59 cancer cell lines were downloaded from the National Cancer Institute database. Equivalent data were generated for 18 B-cell cancer cell lines. Linear discriminant analyses (LDA, sparse partial least squares (SPLS and pairwise comparisons of cell line data were used to build resistance signatures from both cell line panels. A melphalan resistance index was defined and estimated for each MM patient in a publicly available clinical data set and evaluated retrospectively by Cox proportional hazards and Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Both cell line panels performed well with respect to internal validation of the SPLS approach but only the B-cell panel was able to predict a significantly higher risk of relapse and death with increasing resistance index in the clinical data sets. The most sensitive and resistant cell lines, MOLP-2 and RPMI-8226 LR5, respectively, had high leverage, which suggests their differentially expressed genes to possess important predictive value. CONCLUSION: The present study presents a melphalan resistance index generated by analysis of a B-cell panel of cancer cell lines. However, the resistance index needs to be functionally validated and correlated to known MM biomarkers in independent data sets in order to

  1. [Values of the sperm deformity index, acrosome abnormity rate, and sperm DNA fragmentation index of optimized sperm in predicting IVF fertilization failure].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Wei-jie; Jin, Fan; Zhou, Li-ming

    2016-02-01

    To investigate the values of the sperm deformity index (SDI), acrosome abnormity rate (AAR), and DNA fragmentation index (DFI) of optimized sperm in the prediction of fertilization failure (fertilization rate fertilization (IVF). We selected 695 cycles of conventional IVF for pure oviductal infertility in this study, including 603 cycles of normal fertilization and 92 cycles of fertilization failure. On the day of oocyte retrieval, we examined sperm morphology, acrosome morphology, and DNA fragmentation using the Diff-Quik, PSA-FITC and SCD methods. We established the joint predictor (JP) by logistic equation and analyzed the values of different parameters in predicting fertilization failure with the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. The fertilization rate was negatively correlated with SDI (r = - 0.07; P = 0.03), AAR (r = -0.49; P fertilization group were 1.24 ± 0.20, (7.75 ± 2.28)%, and (7.87 ± 3.15)%, and those in the fertilization failure group were 1.42 ± 0.15, (12.02 ± 3.06)%, and (13.32 ± 4.13)%, respectively, all with statistically significant differences between the two groups (P fertilization failure ( OR = 2.68, 14.11, and 3.85; P = 0.01, fertilization failure were approximately 1.45, 10%, and 12%. The SDI, AAR and DFI of optimized sperm are closely associated with the fertilization rate, and all have the value for predicting fertilization failure in IVF. The AAR is more valuable than the other single predictors, but JP is more effective than the AAR.

  2. Hemolysis is associated with low reticulocyte production index and predicts blood transfusion in severe malarial anemia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rolf Fendel

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Falciparum Malaria, an infectious disease caused by the apicomplexan parasite Plasmodium falciparum, is among the leading causes of death and morbidity attributable to infectious diseases worldwide. In Gabon, Central Africa, one out of four inpatients have severe malarial anemia (SMA, a life-threatening complication if left untreated. Emerging drug resistant parasites might aggravate the situation. This case control study investigates biomarkers of enhanced hemolysis in hospitalized children with either SMA or mild malaria (MM. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Ninety-one children were included, thereof 39 SMA patients. Strict inclusion criteria were chosen to exclude other causes of anemia. At diagnosis, erythrophagocytosis (a direct marker for extravascular hemolysis, EVH was enhanced in SMA compared to MM patients (5.0 arbitrary units (AU (interquartile range (IR: 2.2-9.6 vs. 2.1 AU (IR: 1.3-3.9, p<0.01. Furthermore, indirect markers for EVH, (i.e. serum neopterin levels, spleen size enlargement and monocyte pigment were significantly increased in SMA patients. Markers for erythrocyte ageing, such as CD35 (complement receptor 1, CD55 (decay acceleration factor and phosphatidylserine exposure (annexin-V-binding were investigated by flow cytometry. In SMA patients, levels of CD35 and CD55 on the red blood cell surface were decreased and erythrocyte removal markers were increased when compared to MM or reconvalescent patients. Additionally, intravascular hemolysis (IVH was quantified using several indirect markers (LDH, alpha-HBDH, haptoglobin and hemopexin, which all showed elevated IVH in SMA. The presence of both IVH and EVH predicted the need for blood transfusion during antimalarial treatment (odds ratio 61.5, 95% confidence interval (CI: 8.9-427. Interestingly, this subpopulation is characterized by a significantly lowered reticulocyte production index (RPI, p<0.05. CONCLUSIONS: Our results show the multifactorial pathophysiology of SMA

  3. Hypsarrhythmia paroxysm index: A tool for early prediction of infantile spasms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Altunel, Attila; Sever, Ali; Altunel, Emine Özlem

    2015-03-01

    Recurrence of infantile spasms (ISs) is common subsequent to treatment with adrenocorticotropic hormone (ACTH) for West syndrome, and prolonged hypsarrhythmia results in psychomotor deterioration. The evolution to hypsarrhythmia involves conversion of prehypsarrhythmic EEG findings to sporadic hypsarrhythmia paroxysms (HPs), and when paroxysms reach a certain frequency, ISs begin to occur. This retrospective chart study aimed to determine the HP threshold frequency after which ISs begin. Recorded either prior (Group A) or subsequent (Group B) to IS relapse, 248 EEGs were examined in 42 patients. The number of HPs in non-rapid eye movement (NREM) sleep divided by NREM duration constituted the countable hypsarrhythmia paroxysms index (cHPI). After reaching a rate of approximately 10/min, the cHPI lost its feasibility due to the merging of HPs. The durational HPI (dHPI) was also calculated (total duration of HPs during NREM/NREM sleep time×100). ACTH treatment was administered if cHPI was ≥2/min, with the aim of preventing relapse. The mean cHPI value without a concomitant spasm relapse (in Group A) was 1.20/min. Following relapse, this value rose to 4.10/min. EEGs performed subsequent to relapse (in Group B) were classified into three subgroups (B1, B2, and B3) according to the duration of the time interval between IS relapse and the succeeding EEG recording. One-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) indicated that cHPI values differed significantly between the Group B subgroups. In subgroups B2 and B3, a higher number of EEGs were evaluated via dHPI. Linear regression analysis established that the interval between recurrence and the succeeding EEG recording significantly predicted cHPI values and accounted for 54.2% of the explained variability in cHPI values. Therefore, use of the cHPI for early recognition and intervention may aid in preventing the onset and recurrence of ISs and further deterioration of psychomotor development. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All

  4. Does Body Mass Index Predict Premature Cardiomyopathy Onset for Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy?

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKane, Meghann; Soslow, Jonathan H; Xu, Meng; Saville, Benjamin R; Slaughter, James C; Burnette, W Bryan; Markham, Larry W

    2017-04-01

    Duchenne muscular dystrophy leads to cardiomyopathy. The objective of this study was to estimate the association of body mass index with cardiomyopathy onset. Cardiomyopathy was defined as left ventricular ejection fraction Duchenne muscular dystrophy subjects and age of cardiomyopathy onset.

  5. Ferritin and body mass index predict cardiac dysfunction in female adolescents with anorexia of the restrictive type.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Docx, Martine K F; Weyler, Joost; Simons, Annik; Ramet, José; Mertens, Luc

    2015-08-01

    Decreased left ventricular mass index in anorexia nervosa is amply reported. The aim of this study is to identify non-burdensome predictors of reduced left yentricular mass/height (cLVM) in a cohort of adolescent restrictive anorexic girls. This is a retrospective study of all anorexic girls of the restrictive type referred to our tertiary eating disorder unit between September 2002 and December 2012, for somatic assessment of weig ht loss. All subjects fulfilled DMS-IV criteria, without a family history of cardiac or cardiovascular diseases. In all, 283 restrictive anorexic girls (age: 14.63 +/- 1.65 y; body mass index: 15.72 +/- 1.81 kg/m2) were included. Ferritin and body mass index were independent, statistically significant predictors of the corrected left ventricular mass (P anorexia nervosa of the restrictive type. Two factors predicted decreased cLVM in our population: ferritin and BMI.

  6. Models for the prediction of the cetane index of biofuels obtained from different vegetable oils using their fatty acid composition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanchez Borroto, Yisel; Piloto Rodriguez, Ramon; Goyos Perez, Leonardo

    2011-01-01

    The objective of the present work is to obtain a physical-mathematical model that establishes a relationship between the cetane index of biofuels obtained from different vegetable oils and its composition of essential fatty acid. This model is based on experimental data obtained by the authors of the present work and an experimental data reported by different extracted authors of indexed databases. The adjustment of the coefficients of the model is based on the obtaining of residual minima in the capacity of prediction of the model. Starting from these results it is established a very useful tool for the determination of such an important parameter for the fuel diesel as it is the cetane index obtained from an analysis of chemical composition and not obtained from tests in engines banks, to save time and economic resources. (author)

  7. Can transient elastography, Fib-4, Forns Index, and Lok Score predict esophageal varices in HCV-related cirrhotic patients?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hassan, Eman M; Omran, Dalia A; El Beshlawey, Mohamad L; Abdo, Mahmoud; El Askary, Ahmad

    2014-02-01

    Gastroesophageal varices are present in approximately 50% of patients with liver cirrhosis. The aim of this study was to evaluate liver stiffness measurement (LSM), Fib-4, Forns Index and Lok Score as noninvasive predictors of esophageal varices (EV). This prospective study included 65 patients with HCV-related liver cirrhosis. All patients underwent routine laboratory tests, transient elastograhy (TE) and esophagogastroduodenoscopy. FIB-4, Forns Index and Lok Score were calculated. The diagnostic performances of these methods were assessed using sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, accuracy and receiver operating characteristic curves. All predictors (LSM, FIB-4, Forns Index and Lok Score) demonstrated statistically significant correlation with the presence and the grade of EV. TE could diagnose EV at a cutoff value of 18.2kPa. Fib-4, Forns Index, and Lok Score could diagnose EV at cutoff values of 2.8, 6.61 and 0.63, respectively. For prediction of large varices (grade 2, 3), LSM showed the highest accuracy (80%) with a cutoff of 22.4kPa and AUROC of 0.801. Its sensitivity was 84%, specificity 72%, PPV 84% and NPV 72%. The diagnostic accuracies of FIB-4, Forns Index and Lok Score were 70%, 70% and76%, respectively, at cutoffs of 3.3, 6.9 and 0.7, respectively. For diagnosis of large esophageal varices, adding TE to each of the other diagnostic indices (serum fibrosis scores) increased their sensitivities with little decrease in their specificities. Moreover, this combination decreased the LR- in all tests. Noninvasive predictors can restrict endoscopic screening. This is very important as non invasiveness is now a major goal in hepatology. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier España, S.L. and AEEH y AEG. All rights reserved.

  8. Predictive Value of Middle Cerebral Artery to Uterine Artery Pulsatility Index Ratio in Hypertensive Disorders of Pregnancy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prashanth Adiga

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Aims and Objectives. (i To determine the predictive value of cerebrouterine (CU ratio (middle cerebral artery to uterine artery pulsatility index, MCA/UT PI in assessing perinatal outcome among hypertensive disorders of pregnancy. (ii To compare between CU ratio and CP ratio (MCA/Umbilical artery PI as a predictor of adverse perinatal outcome. Methods. A prospective observational study was done in a tertiary medical college hospital, from September 2012 to August 2013. One hundred singleton pregnancies complicated by hypertension peculiar to pregnancy were enrolled. Both CU and CP ratios were estimated. The perinatal outcomes were studied. Results. Both cerebrouterine and cerebroplacental ratios had a better negative predictive value in predicting adverse perinatal outcome. However, both CU and CP ratios when applied together were able to predict adverse outcomes better than individual ratios. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and the negative predictive values for an adverse neonatal outcome with CU ratio were 61.3%, 70.3%, 56%, and 78.9%, respectively, compared to 42%, 57.5%, 62%, and 76% as with CP ratio. Conclusion. Cerebrouterine ratio and cerebroplacental ratio were complementary to each other in predicting the adverse perinatal outcomes. Individually, both ratios were reassuring for favorable perinatal outcome with high negative predictive value.

  9. Determination of fruit maturity and its prediction model based on the pericarp index of absorbance difference (IAD for peaches.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Binbin Zhang

    Full Text Available Harvest maturity is closely related to peach fruit quality and has a very important effect on the fresh fruit market. Unfortunately, at present, it is difficult to determine the maturity level of peach fruits by artificial methods. The objectives of this study were to develop quadratic polynomial regression models using near-infrared spectroscopy that could determine the peel color difference, fruit firmness, soluble solids content (SSC, soluble sugar, organic acid components, and their relationships with the absorbance of chlorophyll (index of absorbance difference, IAD in late maturing 'Xiahui 8' peach and 'Xiaguang' nectarine fruits. The analysis was based on data for fruits at veraison, fruits at harvesting maturity, and all fruits. The results showed that firmness has the highest correlation coefficient with IAD. Prediction models for fruit maturity were established between firmness and the IAD of the two cultivars using the quadratic polynomial regression method. Further variance analysis on the one degree term and quadratic term of each equation showed that every partial regression coefficient reached a significant or extremely significant level. No significant difference was observed between estimated and observed values after regression prediction. The regression equations seem to fit well. Other peach and nectarine varieties were used to test the feasibility of maturity prediction by this method, and it was found that maturity was successfully predicted in all the samples. The result indicated that the IAD can be used as an index to predict peach fruit maturity.

  10. The effects of inbreeding on sperm quality traits in captive‐bred lake trout, Salvelinus namaycush (Walbaum, 1972)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johnson, K.; Butts, I. A. E.; Smith, J. L.

    2015-01-01

    The effects of inbreeding in both captive and wild‐caught species and populations have been reported to affect a wide variety of life history traits. Recently, the effects of inbreeding on reproductive traits such as sperm quality have become a subject of particular interest for conservation...... biology, evolutionary ecology, and management of captive populations. This study investigated the effects of inbreeding on sperm quality in a captive population of experimentally inbred and outbred lake trout, Salvelinus namaycush. It was found for moderately to highly inbred males (males with half......‐sib and full‐sib parents, respectively), that sperm quality traits (velocity, motility, linearity, longevity, spermatocrit and morphology) showed no apparent inbreeding depression. The apparent lack of inbreeding effects on sperm quality traits may be due to several factors including (i) no inbreeding...

  11. Efficiency of selection, as measured by single nucleotide polymorphism variation, is dependent on inbreeding rate in Drosophila melanogaster

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Demontis, Ditte; Pertoldi, Cino; Loeschcke, Volker

    2009-01-01

    over homozygous individuals by natural selection, either by associative over-dominance or balancing selection, or a combination of both. Furthermore, we found a significant polynomial correlation between genetic variance and wing size and shape in the fast inbred lines. This was caused by a greater......It is often hypothesized that slow inbreeding causes less inbreeding depression than fast inbreeding at the same absolute level of inbreeding. Possible explanations for this phenomenon include the more efficient purging of deleterious alleles and more efficient selection for heterozygote...... genetic variance than fast inbreeding. These results increase our understanding of the genetic basis of the common observation that slow inbred lines express less inbreeding depression than fast inbred lines. In addition, this has more general implications for the importance of selection in maintaining...

  12. Positive feedback and alternative stable states in inbreeding, cooperation, sex roles and other evolutionary processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehtonen, Jussi; Kokko, Hanna

    2012-01-01

    A large proportion of studies in systems science focus on processes involving a mixture of positive and negative feedbacks, which are also common themes in evolutionary ecology. Examples of negative feedback are density dependence (population regulation) and frequency-dependent selection (polymorphisms). Positive feedback, in turn, plays a role in Fisherian ‘runaway’ sexual selection, the evolution of cooperation, selfing and inbreeding tolerance under purging of deleterious alleles, and the evolution of sex differences in parental care. All these examples feature self-reinforcing processes where the increase in the value of a trait selects for further increases, sometimes via a coevolutionary feedback loop with another trait. Positive feedback often leads to alternative stable states (evolutionary endpoints), making the interpretation of evolutionary predictions challenging. Here, we discuss conceptual issues such as the relationship between self-reinforcing selection and disruptive selection. We also present an extension of a previous model on parental care, focusing on the relationship between the operational sex ratio and sexual selection, and the influence of this relationship on the evolution of biparental or uniparental care. PMID:22144384

  13. Extra-group mating increases inbreeding risk in a cooperatively breeding bird.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrison, X A; York, J E; Cram, D L; Young, A J

    2013-11-01

    In many cooperatively breeding species, females mate extra-group, the adaptive value of which remains poorly understood. One hypothesis posits that females employ extra-group mating to access mates whose genotypes are more dissimilar to their own than their social mates, so as to increase offspring heterozygosity. We test this hypothesis using life history and genetic data from 36 cooperatively breeding white-browed sparrow weaver (Plocepasser mahali) groups. Contrary to prediction, a dominant female's relatedness to her social mate did not drive extra-group mating decisions and, moreover, extra-group mating females were significantly more related to their extra-group sires than their social mates. Instead, dominant females were substantially more likely to mate extra-group when paired to a dominant male of low heterozygosity, and their extra-group mates (typically dominants themselves) were significantly more heterozygous than the males they cuckolded. The combined effects of mating with extra-group males of closer relatedness, but higher heterozygosity resulted in extra-group-sired offspring that were no more heterozygous than their within-group-sired half-siblings. Our findings are consistent with a role for male-male competition in driving extra-group mating and suggest that the local kin structure typical of cooperative breeders could counter potential benefits to females of mating extra-group by exposing them to a risk of inbreeding. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  14. Positive feedback and alternative stable states in inbreeding, cooperation, sex roles and other evolutionary processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehtonen, Jussi; Kokko, Hanna

    2012-01-19

    A large proportion of studies in systems science focus on processes involving a mixture of positive and negative feedbacks, which are also common themes in evolutionary ecology. Examples of negative feedback are density dependence (population regulation) and frequency-dependent selection (polymorphisms). Positive feedback, in turn, plays a role in Fisherian 'runaway' sexual selection, the evolution of cooperation, selfing and inbreeding tolerance under purging of deleterious alleles, and the evolution of sex differences in parental care. All these examples feature self-reinforcing processes where the increase in the value of a trait selects for further increases, sometimes via a coevolutionary feedback loop with another trait. Positive feedback often leads to alternative stable states (evolutionary endpoints), making the interpretation of evolutionary predictions challenging. Here, we discuss conceptual issues such as the relationship between self-reinforcing selection and disruptive selection. We also present an extension of a previous model on parental care, focusing on the relationship between the operational sex ratio and sexual selection, and the influence of this relationship on the evolution of biparental or uniparental care.

  15. Systemic Immune-Inflammation Index and Circulating T-Cell Immune Index Predict Outcomes in High-Risk Acral Melanoma Patients Treated with High-Dose Interferon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Jiayi; Wu, Xiaowen; Yu, Huan; Li, Siming; Mao, LiLi; Chi, Zhihong; Si, Lu; Sheng, Xinan; Cui, Chuanliang; Dai, Jie; Ma, Meng; Tang, Huan; Xu, Tianxiao; Yan, Junya; Kong, Yan; Guo, Jun

    2017-10-01

    High-dose interferon alfa-2b (IFN-α-2b) improves the survival of patients with high-risk melanoma. We aimed to identify baseline peripheral blood biomarkers to predict the outcome of acral melanoma patients treated with IFN-α-2b. Pretreatment baseline parameters and clinical data were assessed in 226 patients with acral melanoma. Relapse-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) were assessed using the Kaplan-Meier method, and multivariate Cox regression analyses were applied after adjusting for stage, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), and ulceration. Univariate analysis showed that neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio ≥2.35, platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio ≥129, systemic immune-inflammation index (SII) ≥615 × 10 9 /l, and elevated LDH were significantly associated with poor RFS and OS. The SII is calculated as follows: platelet count × neutrophil count/lymphocyte count. On multivariate analysis, the SII was associated with RFS [hazard ratio (HR)=1.661, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.066-2.586, P=.025] and OS (HR=2.071, 95% CI: 1.204-3.564, P=.009). Additionally, we developed a novel circulating T-cell immune index (CTII) calculated as follows: cytotoxic T lymphocytes/(CD4 + regulatory T cells × CD8 + regulatory T cells). On univariate analysis, the CTII was associated with OS (HR=1.73, 95% CI: 1.01-2.94, P=.044). The SII and CTII might serve as prognostic indicators in acral melanoma patients treated with IFN-α-2b. The indexes are easily obtainable via routine tests in clinical practice. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Systemic Immune-Inflammation Index and Circulating T-Cell Immune Index Predict Outcomes in High-Risk Acral Melanoma Patients Treated with High-Dose Interferon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiayi Yu

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available High-dose interferon alfa-2b (IFN-α-2b improves the survival of patients with high-risk melanoma. We aimed to identify baseline peripheral blood biomarkers to predict the outcome of acral melanoma patients treated with IFN-α-2b. Pretreatment baseline parameters and clinical data were assessed in 226 patients with acral melanoma. Relapse-free survival (RFS and overall survival (OS were assessed using the Kaplan-Meier method, and multivariate Cox regression analyses were applied after adjusting for stage, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH, and ulceration. Univariate analysis showed that neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio ≥2.35, platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio ≥129, systemic immune-inflammation index (SII ≥615 × 109/l, and elevated LDH were significantly associated with poor RFS and OS. The SII is calculated as follows: platelet count × neutrophil count/lymphocyte count. On multivariate analysis, the SII was associated with RFS [hazard ratio (HR=1.661, 95% confidence interval (CI: 1.066-2.586, P=.025] and OS (HR=2.071, 95% CI: 1.204-3.564, P=.009. Additionally, we developed a novel circulating T-cell immune index (CTII calculated as follows: cytotoxic T lymphocytes/(CD4+ regulatory T cells × CD8+ regulatory T cells. On univariate analysis, the CTII was associated with OS (HR=1.73, 95% CI: 1.01-2.94, P=.044. The SII and CTII might serve as prognostic indicators in acral melanoma patients treated with IFN-α-2b. The indexes are easily obtainable via routine tests in clinical practice.

  17. Inbreeding effects on standard metabolic rate investigated at cold, benign and hot temperatures in Drosophila melanogaster.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jensen, Palle; Overgaard, Johannes; Loeschcke, Volker; Schou, Mads Fristrup; Malte, Hans; Kristensen, Torsten Nygaard

    2014-03-01

    Inbreeding increases homozygosity, which is known to affect the mean and variance of fitness components such as growth, fecundity and mortality rate. Across inbred lines inbreeding depression is typically observed and the variance between lines is increased in inbred compared to outbred lines. It has been suggested that damage incurred from increased homozygosity entails energetic cost associated with cellular repair. However, little is known about the effects of inbreeding on standard metabolic rate. Using stop-flow respirometry we performed repeated measurements of metabolic rate in replicated lines of inbred and outbred Drosophila melanogaster at stressful low, benign and stressful high temperatures. The lowest measurements of metabolic rate in our study are always associated with the low activity period of the diurnal cycle and these measurements therefore serve as good estimates of standard metabolic rate. Due to the potentially added costs of genetic stress in inbred lines we hypothesized that inbred individuals have increased metabolic rate compared to outbred controls and that this is more pronounced at stressful temperatures due to synergistic inbreeding by environment interactions. Contrary to our hypothesis we found no significant difference in metabolic rate between inbred and outbred lines and no interaction between inbreeding and temperature. Inbreeding however effected the variance; the variance in metabolic rate was higher between the inbred lines compared to the outbred control lines with some inbred lines having very high or low standard metabolic rate. Thus genetic drift and not inbreeding per se seem to explain variation in metabolic rate in populations of different size. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Inbreeding of bottlenecked butterfly populations. Estimation using the likelihood of changes in marker allele frequencies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saccheri, I J; Wilson, I J; Nichols, R A; Bruford, M W; Brakefield, P M

    1999-03-01

    Polymorphic enzyme and minisatellite loci were used to estimate the degree of inbreeding in experimentally bottlenecked populations of the butterfly, Bicyclus anynana (Satyridae), three generations after founding events of 2, 6, 20, or 300 individuals, each bottleneck size being replicated at least four times. Heterozygosity fell more than expected, though not significantly so, but this traditional measure of the degree of inbreeding did not make full use of the information from genetic markers. It proved more informative to estimate directly the probability distribution of a measure of inbreeding, sigma2, the variance in the number of descendants left per gene. In all bottlenecked lines, sigma2 was significantly larger than in control lines (300 founders). We demonstrate that this excess inbreeding was brought about both by an increase in the variance of reproductive success of individuals, but also by another process. We argue that in bottlenecked lines linkage disequilibrium generated by the small number of haplotypes passing through the bottleneck resulted in hitchhiking of particular marker alleles with those haplotypes favored by selection. In control lines, linkage disequilibrium was minimal. Our result, indicating more inbreeding than expected from demographic parameters, contrasts with the findings of previous (Drosophila) experiments in which the decline in observed heterozygosity was slower than expected and attributed to associative overdominance. The different outcomes may both be explained as a consequence of linkage disequilibrium under different regimes of inbreeding. The likelihood-based method to estimate inbreeding should be of wide applicability. It was, for example, able to resolve small differences in sigma2 among replicate lines within bottleneck-size treatments, which could be related to the observed variation in reproductive viability.

  19. The effects of age and environment on the expression of inbreeding depression in Eucalyptus globulus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa e Silva, J; Hardner, C; Tilyard, P; Potts, B M

    2011-01-01

    Inbreeding adversely affects fitness traits in many plant and animal species, and the magnitude, stability and genetic basis of inbreeding depression (ID) will have short- and long-term evolutionary consequences. The effects of four degrees of inbreeding (selfing, f=50% full- and half-sib matings, f=25 and 12.5% and unrelated outcrosses, f=0%) on survival and growth of an island population of Eucalyptus globulus were studied at two sites for over 14 years. For selfs, ID in survival increased over time, reaching a maximum of 49% by age 14 years. However, their inbreeding depression for stem diameter remained relatively stable with age, and ranged from 28 to 36% across years and sites. ID for survival was markedly greater on the more productive site, possibly due to greater and earlier onset of inter-tree competition, but was similar on both sites for the diameter of survivors. The deleterious trait response to increasing inbreeding coefficients was linear for survival and diameter. Non-significant quadratic effects suggested that epistasis did not contribute considerably to the observed ID at the population level. Among- and within-family coefficients of variation for diameter increased with inbreeding degree, and the variance among the outcrossed families was significant only on the more productive site. The performance of self-families for diameter was highly stable between sites. This suggests that, for species with mixed mating systems, environmentally stable inbreeding effects in open-pollinated progenies may tend to mask the additive genotype-by-environment interaction for fitness traits and the adaptive response to the environment. PMID:21224873

  20. Combining turbulent kinetic energy and Haines Index predictions for fire-weather assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warren E. Heilman; Xindi Bian

    2007-01-01

    The 24- to 72-hour fire-weather predictions for different regions of the United States are now readily available from the regional Fire Consortia for Advanced Modeling of Meteorology and Smoke (FCAMMS) that were established as part of the U.S. National Fire Plan. These predictions are based on daily real-time MM5 model simulations of atmospheric conditions and fire-...

  1. Prediction of fermentation index of cocoa beans (Theobroma cacao L.) based on color measurement and artificial neural networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    León-Roque, Noemí; Abderrahim, Mohamed; Nuñez-Alejos, Luis; Arribas, Silvia M; Condezo-Hoyos, Luis

    2016-12-01

    Several procedures are currently used to assess fermentation index (FI) of cocoa beans (Theobroma cacao L.) for quality control. However, all of them present several drawbacks. The aim of the present work was to develop and validate a simple image based quantitative procedure, using color measurement and artificial neural network (ANNs). ANN models based on color measurements were tested to predict fermentation index (FI) of fermented cocoa beans. The RGB values were measured from surface and center region of fermented beans in images obtained by camera and desktop scanner. The FI was defined as the ratio of total free amino acids in fermented versus non-fermented samples. The ANN model that included RGB color measurement of fermented cocoa surface and R/G ratio in cocoa bean of alkaline extracts was able to predict FI with no statistical difference compared with the experimental values. Performance of the ANN model was evaluated by the coefficient of determination, Bland-Altman plot and Passing-Bablok regression analyses. Moreover, in fermented beans, total sugar content and titratable acidity showed a similar pattern to the total free amino acid predicted through the color based ANN model. The results of the present work demonstrate that the proposed ANN model can be adopted as a low-cost and in situ procedure to predict FI in fermented cocoa beans through apps developed for mobile device. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Water quality indexing for predicting variation of water quality over time

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    PPoonoosamy

    makes use mainly of physical and chemical parameters. There are four steps involved in the development of a water quality index; the indicator selection, the .... Temperature, turbidity, pH, nitrates, phosphates, colour, BOD, ammonia and conductivity level. Station o. Description. Landuse Activities. C1. St-Anne Bridge.

  3. Automated procedure for candidate compound selection in GCMS metabolomics based on prediction of Kovats retention index

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mihaleva, V.V.; Verhoeven, H.A.; Vos, de C.H.; Hall, R.D.; Ham, van R.C.H.J.

    2009-01-01

    Motivation: Matching both the retention index (RI) and the mass spectrum of an unknown compound against a mass spectral reference library provides strong evidence for a correct identification of that compound. Data on retention indices are, however, available for only a small fraction of the

  4. A Behavioral Economic Reward Index Predicts Drinking Resolutions: Moderation Revisited and Compared with Other Outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tucker, Jalie A.; Roth, David L.; Vignolo, Mary J.; Westfall, Andrew O.

    2009-01-01

    Data were pooled from 3 studies of recently resolved community-dwelling problem drinkers to determine whether a behavioral economic index of the value of rewards available over different time horizons distinguished among moderation (n = 30), abstinent (n = 95), and unresolved (n = 77) outcomes. Moderation over 1- to 2-year prospective follow-up…

  5. Evaluation of an Air Quality Health Index for Predicting the Mutagenicity of Simulated Atmospheres

    Science.gov (United States)

    No study has evaluated the mutagenicity of atmospheres with a calculated air quality health index (AQHI). Thus, we generated in a UV-light-containing reaction chamber two simulated atmospheres (SAs) with similar AQHIs but different proportions of criteria pollutants and evaluated...

  6. Index for Predicting Insurance Claims from Wind Storms with an Application in France.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mornet, Alexandre; Opitz, Thomas; Luzi, Michel; Loisel, Stéphane

    2015-11-01

    For insurance companies, wind storms represent a main source of volatility, leading to potentially huge aggregated claim amounts. In this article, we compare different constructions of a storm index allowing us to assess the economic impact of storms on an insurance portfolio by exploiting information from historical wind speed data. Contrary to historical insurance portfolio data, meteorological variables show fewer nonstationarities between years and are easily available with long observation records; hence, they represent a valuable source of additional information for insurers if the relation between observations of claims and wind speeds can be revealed. Since standard correlation measures between raw wind speeds and insurance claims are weak, a storm index focusing on high wind speeds can afford better information. A storm index approach has been applied to yearly aggregated claim amounts in Germany with promising results. Using historical meteorological and insurance data, we assess the consistency of the proposed index constructions with respect to various parameters and weights. Moreover, we are able to place the major insurance events since 1998 on a broader horizon beyond 40 years. Our approach provides a meteorological justification for calculating the return periods of extreme-storm-related insurance events whose magnitude has rarely been reached. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  7. The predictive value of the foot posture index on dynamic function

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Rasmus Gottschalk; Rathleff, Michael Skovdal; Kersting, U G

    2008-01-01

    Keenan et. al. identified the six-item version of the Foot Posture Index (FPI) as a valid, simple and clinically useful tool. The model combines measures of the standing foot posture in multiple planes and anatomical segments. It provides an alternative to existing static clinical measures when...

  8. The Predictive Value of the Foot Posture Index on Dynamic Function

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mølgaard, Carsten Møller; Olesen Gammelgaard, Christian; Nielsen, R. G.

    Keenan et. al. identified the six-item version of the Foot Posture Index (FPI) as a valid, simple and clinically useful tool. The model combines measures of the standing foot posture in multiple planes and anatomical segments. It provides an alternative to existing static clinical measures when...

  9. The Predictive Value of the Foot Posture Index on Dynamic Function

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mølgaard, Carsten Møller; Olesen Gammelgaard, Christian; Nielsen, R. G.

    2008-01-01

    Keenan et. al. identified the six-item version of the Foot Posture Index (FPI) as a valid, simple and clinically useful tool. The model combines measures of the standing foot posture in multiple planes and anatomical segments. It provides an alternative to existing static clinical measures when...

  10. Estimation of Inbreeding Coefficient and Its Effects on Lamb Survival in Sheep

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    mohammad almasi

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Introduction The mating of related individuals produces an inbred offspring and leads to an increased homozygosity in the progeny, genetic variance decrease within families and increase between families. The ration of homozygosity for individuals was calculated by inbreeding coefficient. Inbred individuals may carry two alleles at a locus that are replicated from one gene in the previous generations, called identical by descent. The inbreeding coefficient should be monitored in a breeding program, since it plays an important role at decreasing of homeostasis, performance, reproduction and viability. The trend of inbreeding is an indicator for determining of inbreeding level in the herd. Inbreeding affects both phenotypic means of traits and genetic variances within population, thus it is an important factor for delimitations of genetic progress in a population. Reports showed an inbreeding increase led to decrease of phenotypic value in some of the productive and reproductive traits. Materials and Methods In the current study, the pedigree data of 14030 and 6215 records of Baluchi and Iranblack lambs that collected from 1984 to 2011 at the Abbasabad Sheep Breeding Station in Mashhad, Iran, 3588 records of Makoei lambs that collected from 1994 to 2011 at the Makoei sheep breeding station and 6140, records of Zandi lambs that collected from 1991 to 2011 at the Khejir Sheep Breeding Station in Tehran, Iran were used to estimating the inbreeding coefficient and its effects on lamb survival in these breeds. Lamb survival trait was scored as 1 and 0 for lamb surviving and not surviving at weaning weight, respectively. Inbreeding coefficient was estimated by relationship matrix algorithm (A=TDT' methodology using the CFC software program. Effects of inbreeding coefficient on lamb survival were estimated by restricted maximum likelihood (REML method under 12 different animal models using ASReml 3.0 computer programme. Coefficient of inbreeding for each

  11. Recent breeding history of dog breeds in Sweden: modest rates of inbreeding, extensive loss of genetic diversity and lack of correlation between inbreeding and health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jansson, M; Laikre, L

    2014-04-01

    One problem in modern dogs is a high occurrence of physical diseases, defects and disorders. Many breeds exhibit physical problems that affect individual dogs throughout life. A potential cause of these problems is inbreeding that is known to reduce the viability of individuals. We investigated the possible correlation between recent inbreeding and health problems in dogs and used studbook data from 26 breeds provided by the Swedish Kennel Club for this purpose. The pedigrees date back to the mid-20th century and comprise 5-10 generations and 1 000-50 000 individuals per pedigree over our study period of 1980-2010. We compared levels of inbreeding and loss of genetic variation measured in relation to the number of founding animals during this period in the investigated dog breeds that we classified as 'healthy' (11 breeds) or 'unhealthy' (15) based on statistics on the extent of veterinary care obtained from Sweden's four largest insurance companies for pets. We found extensive loss of genetic variation and moderate levels of recent inbreeding in all breeds examined, but no strong indication of a difference in these parameters between healthy versus unhealthy breeds over this period. Thus, recent breeding history with respect to rate of inbreeding does not appear to be a main cause of poor health in the investigated dog breeds in Sweden. We identified both strengths and weaknesses of the dog pedigree data important to consider in future work of monitoring and conserving genetic diversity of dog breeds. © 2013 The Authors Journal of Animal Breeding and Genetics Published by Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  12. Strain dyssynchrony index determined by three-dimensional speckle area tracking can predict response to cardiac resynchronization therapy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Onishi Tetsuari

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background We have previously reported strain dyssynchrony index assessed by two-dimensional speckle tracking strain, and a marker of both dyssynchrony and residual myocardial contractility, can predict response to cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT. A newly developed three-dimensional (3-D speckle tracking system can quantify endocardial area change ratio (area strain, which coupled with the factors of both longitudinal and circumferential strain, from all 16 standard left ventricular (LV segments using complete 3-D pyramidal datasets. Our objective was to test the hypothesis that strain dyssynchrony index using area tracking (ASDI can quantify dyssynchrony and predict response to CRT. Methods We studied 14 heart failure patients with ejection fraction of 27 ± 7% (all≤35% and QRS duration of 172 ± 30 ms (all≥120 ms who underwent CRT. Echocardiography was performed before and 6-month after CRT. ASDI was calculated as the average difference between peak and end-systolic area strain of LV endocardium obtained from 3-D speckle tracking imaging using 16 segments. Conventional dyssynchrony measures were assessed by interventricular mechanical delay, Yu Index, and two-dimensional radial dyssynchrony by speckle-tracking strain. Response was defined as a ≥15% decrease in LV end-systolic volume 6-month after CRT. Results ASDI ≥ 3.8% was the best predictor of response to CRT with a sensitivity of 78%, specificity of 100% and area under the curve (AUC of 0.93 (p Conclusions ASDI can predict responders and LV reverse remodeling following CRT. This novel index using the 3-D speckle tracking system, which shows circumferential and longitudinal LV dyssynchrony and residual endocardial contractility, may thus have clinical significance for CRT patients.

  13. The Mantle Cell Lymphoma International Prognostic Index (MIPI) is superior to the International Prognostic Index (IPI) in predicting survival following intensive first-line immunochemotherapy and autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Geisler, Christian H; Kolstad, Arne; Laurell, Anna

    2010-01-01

    Mantle cell lymphoma (MCL) has a heterogeneous clinical course. The recently proposed Mantle Cell Lymphoma International Prognostic Index (MIPI) predicted the survival of MCL better than the International Prognostic Index in MCL patients treated with conventional chemotherapy, but its validity in...

  14. Fatty liver index vs waist circumference for predicting non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Motamed, Nima; Sohrabi, Masoudreza; Ajdarkosh, Hossein; Hemmasi, Gholamreza; Maadi, Mansooreh; Sayeedian, Fatemeh Sima; Pirzad, Reza; Abedi, Khadijeh; Aghapour, Sivil; Fallahnezhad, Mojtaba; Zamani, Farhad

    2016-03-14

    To determine the discriminatory performance of fatty liver index (FLI) for non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). The data of 5052 subjects aged over 18 years were analyzed. FLI was calculated from body mass index, waist circumference (WC), triglyceride, and gamma glutamyl transferase data. Logistic regression analysis was conducted to determine the association between FLI and NAFLD. The discriminatory performance of FLI in the diagnosis of NAFLD was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic analysis. Area under the curves (AUCs) and related confidence intervals were estimated. Optimal cutoff points of FLI in the diagnosis of NAFLD were determined based on the maximum values of Youden's index. The mean age of men and women in the study population were 44.8 ± 16.8 and 43.78 ± 15.43, respectively (P = 0.0216). The prevalence of NAFLD was 40.1% in men and 44.2% in women (P < 0.0017). FLI was strongly associated with NAFLD, so that even a one unit increase in FLI increased the chance of developing NAFLD by 5.8% (OR = 1.058, 95%CI: 1.054-1.063, P < 0.0001). Although FLI showed good performance in the diagnosis of NAFLD (AUC = 0.8656 (95%CI: 0.8548-0.8764), there was no significant difference with regards to WC (AUC = 0.8533, 95%CI: 0.8419-0.8646). The performance of FLI was not significantly different between men (AUC = 0.8648, 95%CI: 0.8505-0.8791) and women (AUC = 0.8682, 95%CI: 0.8513-0.8851). The highest performance with regards to age was related to the 18-39 age group (AUC = 0.8930, 95%CI: 0.8766-0.9093). The optimal cutoff points of FLI were 46.9 in men (sensitivity = 0.8242, specificity = 0.7687, Youden's index = 0.5929) and 53.8 in women (sensitivity = 0.8233, specificity = 0.7655, Youden's index = 0.5888). Although FLI had acceptable discriminatory power in the diagnosis of NAFLD, WC was a simpler and more accessible index with a similar performance.

  15. Renal function decline predicted by left atrial expansion index in non-diabetic cohort with preserved systolic heart function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsiao, Shih-Hung; Chiou, Kuan-Rau

    2017-05-01

    Since natriuretic peptide and troponin are associated with renal prognosis and left atrial (LA) parameters are indicators of subclinical cardiovascular abnormalities, this study investigated whether LA expansion index can predict renal decline. This study analysed 733 (69% male) non-diabetic patients with sinus rhythm, preserved systolic function, and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) higher than 60 mL/min/1.73 m2. In all patients, echocardiograms were performed and LA expansion index was calculated. Renal function was evaluated annually. The endpoint was a downhill trend in renal function with a final eGFR of renal decline was defined as an annual decline in eGFR >3 mL/min/1.73 m2. The median follow-up time was 5.2 years, and 57 patients (7.8%) had renal function declines (19 had rapid renal declines, and 38 had incidental renal dysfunction). Events were associated with left ventricular mass index, LA expansion index, and heart failure during the follow-up period. The hazard ratio was 1.426 (95% confidence interval, 1.276-1.671; P renal function decline in the unadjusted model and a 6.9-fold risk after adjusting for left ventricular mass index and heart failure during the follow-up period. Left atrial expansion index is a useful early indicator of renal function decline and may enable the possibility of early intervention to prevent renal function from worsening. NCT01171040. Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. © The Author 2017. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  16. Extreme Environment Damage Index and Accumulation Model for CMC Laminate Fatigue Life Prediction, Phase II

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Materials Research & Design (MR&D) is proposing in the SBIR Phase II an effort to develop a tool for predicting the fatigue life of C/SiC composite...

  17. Vital Sign Prediction of Adverse Maternal Outcomes in Women with Hypovolemic Shock: The Role of Shock Index.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alison M El Ayadi

    Full Text Available To determine the optimal vital sign predictor of adverse maternal outcomes in women with hypovolemic shock secondary to obstetric hemorrhage and to develop thresholds for referral/intensive monitoring and need for urgent intervention to inform a vital sign alert device for low-resource settings.We conducted secondary analyses of a dataset of pregnant/postpartum women with hypovolemic shock in low-resource settings (n = 958. Using receiver-operating curve analysis, we evaluated the predictive ability of pulse, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, shock index, mean arterial pressure, and pulse pressure for three adverse maternal outcomes: (1 death, (2 severe maternal outcome (death or severe end organ dysfunction morbidity; and (3 a combined severe maternal and critical interventions outcome comprising death, severe end organ dysfunction morbidity, intensive care admission, blood transfusion ≥ 5 units, or emergency hysterectomy. Two threshold parameters with optimal rule-in and rule-out characteristics were selected based on sensitivities, specificities, and positive and negative predictive values.Shock index was consistently among the top two predictors across adverse maternal outcomes. Its discriminatory ability was significantly better than pulse and pulse pressure for maternal death (p<0.05 and p<0.01, respectively, diastolic blood pressure and pulse pressure for severe maternal outcome (p<0.01, and systolic and diastolic blood pressure, mean arterial pressure and pulse pressure for severe maternal outcome and critical interventions (p<0.01. A shock index threshold of ≥ 0.9 maintained high sensitivity (100.0 with clinical practicality, ≥ 1.4 balanced specificity (range 70.0-74.8 with negative predictive value (range 93.2-99.2, and ≥ 1.7 further improved specificity (range 80.7-90.8 without compromising negative predictive value (range 88.8-98.5.For women with hypovolemic shock from obstetric hemorrhage, shock index was

  18. The Predictive Value of Integrated Pulmonary Index after Off-Pump Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting: A Prospective Observational Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Evgenia V. Fot

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available BackgroundThe early warning scores may increase the safety of perioperative period. The objective of this study was to assess the diagnostic and predictive role of Integrated Pulmonary Index (IPI after off-pump coronary artery bypass grafting (OPCAB.Materials and MethodsForty adult patients undergoing elective OPCAB were enrolled into a single-center prospective observational study. We assessed respiratory function using IPI that includes oxygen saturation, end-tidal CO2, respiratory rate, and pulse rate. In addition, we evaluated blood gas analyses and hemodynamics, including ECG, invasive arterial pressure, and cardiac index. The measurements were performed after transfer to the intensive care unit, after spontaneous breathing trial and at 2, 6, 12, and 18 h after extubation.Results and DiscussionThe value of IPI registered during respiratory support correlated weakly with cardiac index (rho = 0.4; p = 0.04 and ScvO2 (rho = 0.4, p = 0.02. After extubation, IPI values decreased significantly, achieving a minimum by 18 h. The IPI value ≤9 at 6 h after extubation was a predictor of complicated early postoperative period (AUC = 0.71; p = 0.04 observed in 13 patients.ConclusionIn off-pump coronary surgery, the IPI decreases significantly after tracheal extubation and may predict postoperative complications.

  19. SHOCK VOLUME: A PATIENT-SPECIFIC INDEX THAT PREDICTS TRANSFUSION REQUIREMENTS AND ORGAN DYSFUNCTION IN MULTIPLY INJURED PATIENTS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKinley, Todd O; McCarroll, Tyler; Gaski, Greg E; Frantz, Travis L; Zarzaur, Ben L; Terry, Colin; Steenburg, Scott D

    2016-02-01

    Multiply injured patients (MIPs) in hemorrhagic shock develop oxygen debt which causes organ dysfunction and can lead to death. We developed a noninvasive patient-specific index, Shock Volume (SV), to quantify the magnitude of hypoperfusion. SV integrates the magnitude and duration that incremental shock index values are elevated above known thresholds of hypoperfusion using serial individual vital sign data. SV can be monitored in real time to assess ongoing hypoperfusion. The goal of this study was to determine how SV corresponded to transfusion requirements and organ dysfunction in a retrospective cohort of 74 MIPs. We measured SV in 6-h increments for 48 h after injury in multiply injured adults (18-65; Injury Severity Score ≥18). Patients who had accumulated 40 units of SV within 6 h of injury and 100 units of SV within 12 h of injury were at high risk for requiring massive transfusion or multiple critical administration transfusions. SV measurements were equally sensitive and specific as compared with base deficit values in predicting transfusions. SV measurements at 6 h after injury stratified patients at risk for multiple organ failure determined by Denver scores. In addition, SV values corresponded to the magnitude of organ failure determined by Sequential Organ Failure Assessment scores. SV is a patient-specific index that can be quantified in real time in critically injured patients. It is a surrogate for cumulative hypoperfusion and it predicts high-volume transfusions and organ dysfunction.

  20. IgG-index predicts neurological morbidity in patients with infectious central nervous system diseases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deisenhammer Florian

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Prognosis assessment of patients with infectious and neoplastic disorders of the central nervous system (CNS may still pose a challenge. In this retrospective cross-sectional study the prognostic value of basic cerebrospinal fluid (CSF parameters in patients with bacterial meningitis, viral meningoencephalitis and leptomeningeal metastases were evaluated. Methods White blood cell count, CSF/serum glucose ratio, protein, CSF/serum albumin quotient and Immunoglobulin indices for IgG, IgA and IgM were analyzed in 90 patients with bacterial meningitis, 117 patients with viral meningoencephalitis and 36 patients with leptomeningeal metastases in a total of 480 CSF samples. Results In the initial spinal tap, the IgG-index was the only independent predictor for unfavorable outcome (GOS Conclusion The present study suggests that in infectious CNS diseases an elevated IgG-Index might be an additional marker for the early identification of patients at risk for neurological morbidity.

  1. Cell proliferation index predicts relapse of brain metastases in non-irradiated patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Peev, N A; Tonchev, A B; Penkowa, M

    2008-01-01

    within 2 months of the excision in patients with uncontrolled systemic disease and not subjected to adjuvant whole brain radio-therapy. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Tissue biopsies derived from 25 patients with brain metastases specifically selected to be a single totally resected lesion and not treated...... to the patients with lesions which had not relapsed or which had relapsed more than 2 months after first craniotomy (n = 12). The synchronous brain metastasis (that is, those occurring before or within 2 months of the primary cancer diagnosis) had a significantly higher proliferation index than the metachronous...... lesions (those occurring more than 2 months after primary cancer diagnosis). CONCLUSIONS: The synchronous brain metastasis relapses within 2 months of primary resection and have a significantly higher proliferation index than the metachronous lesions which did not recur within 2 months. These results...

  2. Use of Radiographic Densitometry to Predict the Bone Healing Index in Distraction Osteogenesis

    OpenAIRE

    A Saw; S Manimaran; S Faizal; AM Bulgiba

    2008-01-01

    Bone lengthening with distraction osteogenesis involves prolonged application of an external fixator frame. Qualitative and quantitative evaluation of callus has been described using various imaging modalities but there is no simple reliable and readily available method. This study aims to investigate the use of a densitometer to analyze plain radiographic images and correlate them with the rate of new bone formation as represented by the bone healing index. A total of 34 bone lengthening pro...

  3. Using body mass index to predict optimal thyroid dosing after thyroidectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ojomo, Kristin A; Schneider, David F; Reiher, Alexandra E; Lai, Ngan; Schaefer, Sarah; Chen, Herbert; Sippel, Rebecca S

    2013-03-01

    Current postoperative thyroid replacement dosing is weight based, with adjustments made after thyroid-stimulating hormone values. This method can lead to considerable delays in achieving euthyroidism and often fails to accurately dose over- and underweight patients. Our aim was to develop an accurate dosing method that uses patient body mass index (BMI) data. A retrospective review of a prospectively collected thyroid database was performed. We selected adult patients undergoing thyroidectomy, with benign pathology, who achieved euthyroidism on thyroid hormone supplementation. Body mass index and euthyroid dose were plotted and regression was used to fit curves to the data. Statistical analysis was performed using STATA 10.1 software (Stata Corp). One hundred twenty-two patients met inclusion criteria. At initial follow-up, only 39 patients were euthyroid (32%). Fifty-three percent of patients with BMI >30 kg/m(2) were overdosed, and 46% of patients with BMI regression equation was derived for calculating initial levothyroxine dose (μg/kg/d = -0.018 × BMI + 2.13 [F statistic = 52.7, root mean square error of 0.24]). The current standard of weight-based thyroid replacement fails to appropriately dose underweight and overweight patients. Body mass index can be used to more accurately dose thyroid hormone using a simple formula. Copyright © 2013 American College of Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Lower Barthel Index scores predict less prescription of pharmacological therapy in elderly patients with Alzheimer disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Formiga, Francesc; Fort, Isabel; Robles, Maria Jose; Rodriguez, Daniel; Regalado, Pedro

    2010-01-01

    To determine the factors associated with receiving specific treatment (cholinesterase inhibitors or/and memantine) for Alzheimer disease (AD) in elderly patients. An observational study carried out in 289 consecutive outpatients aged >64 years with dementia. We collected data on specific AD therapy, sociodemographic variables, Barthel Index (BI), Lawton and Brody Index (LI), Mini Mental State Examination, Global Deterioration Scale (GDS), Charlson Index and the total number of drugs chronically prescribed. Patients receiving specific therapy for dementia were compared with the rest. Two hundred and thirty-three (80.6%) patients were receiving specific treatment for dementia, with 197 (84.5%) receiving monotherapy and the rest (15.4%) combined therapy. The bivariate analysis showed that age, marital status, place of residence, BI and LI, cognitive status and disease severity (GDS) were factors associated with receiving specific dementia therapy. Multiple stepwise logistic regression analysis showed that a lower BI (beta = -0.25; odds ratio 0.976, 95% confidence interval = 0.966-0.986; p < 0.0001) was the only factor independently associated with not receiving specific therapy for AD. Of the possible factors related to elderly patients receiving specific therapy for AD, a poor BI score was the most important factor associated with not receiving treatment. 2010 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  5. Cine dyscontractility index: A novel marker of mechanical dyssynchrony that predicts response to cardiac resynchronization therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Werys, Konrad; Petryka-Mazurkiewicz, Joanna; Błaszczyk, Łukasz; Miśko, Jolanta; Śpiewak, Mateusz; Małek, Łukasz A; Mazurkiewicz, Łukasz; Miłosz-Wieczorek, Barbara; Marczak, Magdalena; Kubik, Agata; Dąbrowska, Agnieszka; Piątkowska-Janko, Ewa; Sawionek, Błażej; Wijesurendra, Rohan; Piechnik, Stefan K; Bogorodzki, Piotr

    2016-12-01

    To investigate whether magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) cine-derived dyssynchrony indices provide additional information compared to conventional tagged MRI (tMRI) acquisitions in heart failure patients undergoing cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT). Patients scheduled for CRT (n = 52) underwent preprocedure MRI including cine and tMRI acquisitions. Segmental strain curves were calculated for both cine and tMRI to produce a range of standard indices for direct comparison between modalities. We also proposed and evaluated a novel index of "dyscontractility," which detects the presence of focal areas with paradoxically positive circumferential strain. Across conventional strain indices, there was only moderate-to-poor (R = 0.3-0.6) correlation between modalities; eight cine-derived indices showed statistically significant (P cine images (cine dyscontractility index, "CDI") was the single best predictor of clinical response to CRT (area under the curve AUC = 0.81, P Cine-derived strain indices offer potentially new information compared to tMRI. Specifically, the novel CDI is most strongly linked to response to cardiac resynchronization therapy in a contemporary patient cohort. It utilizes readily available MRI data, is relatively straightforward to process, and compares favorably with any conventional tagging index. J. Magn. Reson. Imaging 2016;44:1483-1492. © 2016 International Society for Magnetic Resonance in Medicine.

  6. A critical discussion on the applicability of Compound Topographic Index (CTI) for predicting ephemeral gully erosion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casalí, Javier; Chahor, Youssef; Giménez, Rafael; Campo-Bescós, Miguel

    2016-04-01

    The so-called Compound Topographic Index (CTI) can be calculated for each grid cell in a DEM and be used to identify potential locations for ephemeral gullies (e. g.) based on land topography (CTI = A.S.PLANC, where A is upstream drainage area, S is local slope and PLANC is planform curvature, a measure of the landscape convergence) (Parker et al., 2007). It can be shown that CTI represents stream power per unit bed area and it considers the major parameters controlling the pattern and intensity of concentrated surface runoff in the field (Parker et al., 2007). However, other key variables controlling e.g. erosion (e. g. e.) such as soil characteristics, land-use and management, are not had into consideration. The critical CTI value (CTIc) "represents the intensity of concentrated overland flow necessary to initiate erosion and channelised flow under a given set of circumstances" (Parker et al., 2007). AnnAGNPS (Annualized Agriculture Non-Point Source) pollution model is an important management tool developed by (USDA) and uses CTI to locate potential ephemeral gullies. Then, and depending on rainfall characteristics of the period simulated by AnnAGNPS, potential e. g. can become "actual", and be simulated by the model accordingly. This paper presents preliminary results and a number of considerations after evaluating the CTI tool in Navarre. CTIc values found are similar to those cited by other authors, and the e. g. networks that on average occur in the area have been located reasonably well. After our experience we believe that it is necessary to distinguish between the CTIc corresponding to the location of headcuts whose migrations originate the e. g. (CTIc1); and the CTIc necessary to represent the location of the gully networks in the watershed (CTIc2), where gully headcuts are located in the upstream end of the gullies. Most scientists only consider one CTIc value, although, from our point of view, the two situations are different. CTIc1 would represent the

  7. Consequences of inbreeding and reduced genetic variation on tolerance to cadmium stress in the midge Chironomus riparius

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nowak, Carsten; Jost, Daniel; Vogt, Christian; Oetken, Matthias; Schwenk, Klaus; Oehlmann, Joerg

    2007-01-01

    Inbreeding and loss of genetic variation are considered to be major threats to small and endangered populations. The reduction of fitness due to inbreeding is believed to be more severe under stressful environmental conditions. We generated nine strains of the ecotoxicological model organism Chironomus riparius of different inbreeding levels in order to test the hypothesis that the inbreeding level and thus the degree of genome-wide homozygosity influences the life-history under cadmium exposure. Therefore, midge populations were exposed to a gradient of sediment-bound cadmium. The level of genetic variation in the used strains was assessed using microsatellite markers. In the life-cycle tests, inbreeding reduced fitness within C. riparius populations both under control and stressed conditions. However, differences between genetically diverse and impoverished strains were greatest at high cadmium exposure. Overall, inbreeding effects were not only dependent on cadmium concentrations in the sediment, but also on the life-history trait investigated. While some parameters where only affected by inbreeding, others were altered by both, inbreeding and cadmium. For the larval developmental time, a significant interaction was found between inbreeding and cadmium stress. While all strains showed a similar developmental time under control conditions, high rates of inbreeding led to a significantly delayed emergence time under high cadmium concentrations, resulting in longer generation periods and reduced population growth rates as population-relevant effects. The results show, that bioassays with C. riparius are affected by the level of inbreeding within Chironomus test strains. Pollution stress is therefore likely to affect the survival of rare and endangered populations more severe than that of large and genetically diverse ones

  8. Applying the concept of ecohydrological equilibrium to predict steady-state leaf area index for Australian ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, J.; Medlyn, B.; De Kauwe, M. G.; Duursma, R.

    2017-12-01

    Leaf Area Index (LAI) is a key variable in modelling terrestrial vegetation, because it has a major impact on carbon, water and energy fluxes. However, LAI is difficult to predict: several recent intercomparisons have shown that modelled LAI differs significantly among models, and between models and satellite-derived estimates. Empirical studies show that long-term mean LAI is strongly related to mean annual precipitation. This observation is predicted by the theory of ecohydrological equilibrium, which provides a promising alternative means to predict steady-state LAI. We implemented this theory in a simple optimisation model. We hypothesized that, when water availability is limited, plants should adjust long-term LAI and stomatal behavior (g1) to maximize net canopy carbon export, under the constraint that canopy transpiration is a fixed fraction of total precipitation. We evaluated the predicted LAI (Lopt) for Australia against ground-based observations of LAI at 135 sites, and continental-scale satellite-derived estimates. For the site-level data, the RMSE of predicted Lopt was 0.14 m2 m-2, which was similar to the RMSE of a comparison of the data against nine-year mean satellite-derived LAI at those sites. Continentally, Lopt had a R2 of over 70% when compared to satellite-derived LAI, which is comparable to the R2 obtained when different satellite products are compared against each other. The predicted response of Lopt to the increase in atmospheric CO2 over the last 30 years also agreed with the estimate based on satellite-derivatives. Our results indicate that long-term equilibrium LAI can be successfully predicted from a simple application of ecohydrological theory. We suggest that this theory could be usefully incorporated into terrestrial vegetation models to improve their predictions of LAI.

  9. Development of a Late-Life Dementia Prediction Index with Supervised Machine Learning in the Population-Based CAIDE Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pekkala, Timo; Hall, Anette; Lötjönen, Jyrki; Mattila, Jussi; Soininen, Hilkka; Ngandu, Tiia; Laatikainen, Tiina; Kivipelto, Miia; Solomon, Alina

    2016-01-01

    Background and objective: This study aimed to develop a late-life dementia prediction model using a novel validated supervised machine learning method, the Disease State Index (DSI), in the Finnish population-based CAIDE study. Methods: The CAIDE study was based on previous population-based midlife surveys. CAIDE participants were re-examined twice in late-life, and the first late-life re-examination was used as baseline for the present study. The main study population included 709 cognitively normal subjects at first re-examination who returned to the second re-examination up to 10 years later (incident dementia n = 39). An extended population (n = 1009, incident dementia 151) included non-participants/non-survivors (national registers data). DSI was used to develop a dementia index based on first re-examination assessments. Performance in predicting dementia was assessed as area under the ROC curve (AUC). Results: AUCs for DSI were 0.79 and 0.75 for main and extended populations. Included predictors were cognition, vascular factors, age, subjective memory complaints, and APOE genotype. Conclusion: The supervised machine learning method performed well in identifying comprehensive profiles for predicting dementia development up to 10 years later. DSI could thus be useful for identifying individuals who are most at risk and may benefit from dementia prevention interventions. PMID:27802228

  10. Dengue Baidu Search Index data can improve the prediction of local dengue epidemic: A case study in Guangzhou, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Zhihao; Liu, Tao; Zhu, Guanghu; Lin, Hualiang; Zhang, Yonghui; He, Jianfeng; Deng, Aiping; Peng, Zhiqiang; Xiao, Jianpeng; Rutherford, Shannon; Xie, Runsheng; Zeng, Weilin; Li, Xing; Ma, Wenjun

    2017-03-01

    Dengue fever (DF) in Guangzhou, Guangdong province in China is an important public health issue. The problem was highlighted in 2014 by a large, unprecedented outbreak. In order to respond in a more timely manner and hence better control such potential outbreaks in the future, this study develops an early warning model that integrates internet-based query data into traditional surveillance data. A Dengue Baidu Search Index (DBSI) was collected from the Baidu website for developing a predictive model of dengue fever in combination with meteorological and demographic factors. Generalized additive models (GAM) with or without DBSI were established. The generalized cross validation (GCV) score and deviance explained indexes, intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) and root mean squared error (RMSE), were respectively applied to measure the fitness and the prediction capability of the models. Our results show that the DBSI with one-week lag has a positive linear relationship with the local DF occurrence, and the model with DBSI (ICC:0.94 and RMSE:59.86) has a better prediction capability than the model without DBSI (ICC:0.72 and RMSE:203.29). Our study suggests that a DSBI combined with traditional disease surveillance and meteorological data can improve the dengue early warning system in Guangzhou.

  11. Development of a Late-Life Dementia Prediction Index with Supervised Machine Learning in the Population-Based CAIDE Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pekkala, Timo; Hall, Anette; Lötjönen, Jyrki; Mattila, Jussi; Soininen, Hilkka; Ngandu, Tiia; Laatikainen, Tiina; Kivipelto, Miia; Solomon, Alina

    2017-01-01

    This study aimed to develop a late-life dementia prediction model using a novel validated supervised machine learning method, the Disease State Index (DSI), in the Finnish population-based CAIDE study. The CAIDE study was based on previous population-based midlife surveys. CAIDE participants were re-examined twice in late-life, and the first late-life re-examination was used as baseline for the present study. The main study population included 709 cognitively normal subjects at first re-examination who returned to the second re-examination up to 10 years later (incident dementia n = 39). An extended population (n = 1009, incident dementia 151) included non-participants/non-survivors (national registers data). DSI was used to develop a dementia index based on first re-examination assessments. Performance in predicting dementia was assessed as area under the ROC curve (AUC). AUCs for DSI were 0.79 and 0.75 for main and extended populations. Included predictors were cognition, vascular factors, age, subjective memory complaints, and APOE genotype. The supervised machine learning method performed well in identifying comprehensive profiles for predicting dementia development up to 10 years later. DSI could thus be useful for identifying individuals who are most at risk and may benefit from dementia prevention interventions.

  12. Predictive validity of the GOSLON Yardstick index in patients with unilateral cleft lip and palate: A systematic review.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cindy Buj-Acosta

    Full Text Available Among the various indices developed for measuring the results of treatment in patients born with unilateral cleft lip and palate (UCLP, the GOSLON Yardstick index is the most widely used to assess the efficacy of treatment and treatment outcomes, which in UCLP cases are closely linked to jaw growth. The aim of this study was to conduct a systematic review to validate the predictability of growth using the GOSLON Yardstick in patients born with UCLP. A systematic literature review was conducted in four Internet databases: Medline, Cochrane Library, Scopus and Embase, complemented by a manual search and a further search in the databases of the leading journals that focus on this topic. An electronic search was also conducted among grey literature. The search identified a total of 131 articles. Duplicated articles were excluded and after reading titles and abstracts, any articles not related to the research objective were excluded, leaving a total of 21 texts. After reading the complete text, only three articles fulfilled the inclusion criteria. The results showed a predictive validity of between 42.2% and 64.7%, which points to a lack of evidence in the literature for the predictive validity of the GOSLON Yardstick index used in children born with UCLP.

  13. Role of bedside index for severity of acute pancreatitis (bisap score in predicting outcome in acute pancreatitis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shahnawaz Bashir Bhat

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To investigate the role of Bedside index for severity of acute pancreatitis (BISAP score in predicting the outcome of acute pancreatitis. Methods: This single hospital based prospective study included fifty patients of acute pancreatitis admitted within 48 hours of onset of symptoms, who were divided into two groups according to admission BISAP score. BISAP score 3 (severe acute pancreatitis. The ability of BISAP score to predict mortality, morbidity and hospital stay in acute pancreatitis patients was analyzed. Results: A BISAP score of >3 was associated with increased risk of development of transient organ failure, persistent organ failure and pancreatic necrosis (Statistically significant. Mortality in group with BISAP and #8805;3 was 23.5% (4 patients which was statistically higher than group with BISAP score and #706;3 (0 patients (p=0.019.The mean duration of hospital stay of patients in group with BISAP score < 3 was 7.58 +/- 4.04 days and in group with BISAP score and #8805;3 was 15.35 +/- 1.66.(p=0.02. Conclusion: Bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP score, at admission is an excellent score in predicting the mortality, morbidity and hospital stay and hence management protocol in patients admitted with acute pancreatitis. [J Contemp Med 2015; 5(4.000: 215-220

  14. Evaluation of an articulation-index based model for predicting the effects of adaptive frequency response hearing aids.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fabry, D A; Van Tasell, D J

    1990-12-01

    The Articulation Index (AI) was used to evaluate an "adaptive frequency response" (AFR) hearing aid with amplification characteristics that automatically change to become more high-pass with increasing levels of background noise. Speech intelligibility ratings of connected discourse by normal-hearing subjects were predicted well by an empirically derived AI transfer function. That transfer function was used to predict aided speech intelligibility ratings by 12 hearing-impaired subjects wearing a master hearing aid with the Argosy Manhattan Circuit enabled (AFR-on) or disabled (AFR-off). For all subjects, the AI predicted no improvements in speech intelligibility for the AFR-on versus AFR-off condition, and no significant improvements in rated intelligibility were observed. The ability of the AI to predict aided speech intelligibility varied across subjects. However, ratings from every hearing-impaired subject were related monotonically to AI. Therefore, AI calculations may be used to predict relative--but not absolute--levels of speech intelligibility produced under different amplification conditions.

  15. Predicting AEA dosage by Foam Index and adsorption on Fly Ash

    OpenAIRE

    Jacobsen, Stefan; Ollendorff, Margrethe; Geiker, Mette Rica; Tunstall, Lori; Scherer, George W.

    2012-01-01

    Abstract: The unpredictable air entrainment in fly ash concrete caused by carbon in fly ash was studied by measuring adsorption of Air Entraining Agents (AEA) on the fly ash and by Foam Index (FI) testing. The FI test measures the mass ratio of AEA/binder required to obtain stable foam when shaking a mixture of water, binder powder and AEA, while increasing AEA-dosage stepwise. A review of concrete air entrainment and new studies combining adsorption (TGA, NMR) of AEA on fly ash with various ...

  16. Differential Utility of Three Indexes of Risky Drinking for Predicting Alcohol Problems in College Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borsari, Brian; Neal, Dan J.; Collins, Susan E.; Carey, Kate B.

    2008-01-01

    This study evaluated the relationship between alcohol-related problems and 3 indexes of risky drinking in college student drinkers: number of drinks consumed per week, frequency of binge drinking, and estimated blood alcohol levels (BALs). Use of 2 independent samples (N1 = 204, N2 = 181) allowed a cross-validation of obtained associations. Results indicated that neither binge drinking frequency nor BAL were more highly related to alcohol-related problems than was weekly drinking. Furthermore, BAL did not provide unique explanatory power in accounting for alcohol-related problems; mixed results were obtained regarding the relationship of binge drinking estimates with problems. PMID:11767264

  17. Inbreeding effects on standard metabolic rate investigated at cold, benign and hot temperatures in Drosophila melanogaster

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Palle; Overgaard, Johannes; Loeschcke, Volker

    2014-01-01

    in replicated lines of inbred and outbred Drosophila melanogaster at stressful low, benign and stressful high temperatures. The lowest measurements of metabolic rate in our study are always associated with the low activity period of the diurnal cycle and these measurements therefore serve as good estimates...... of standard metabolic rate. Due to the potentially added costs of genetic stress in inbred lines we hypothesized that inbred individuals have increased metabolic rate compared to outbred controls and that this is more pronounced at stressful temperatures due to synergistic inbreeding by environment...... interactions. Contrary to our hypothesis we found no significant difference in metabolic rate between inbred and outbred lines and no interaction between inbreeding and temperature. Inbreeding however effected the variance; the variance in metabolic rate was higher between the inbred lines compared...

  18. A case of inbreeding in the African Wild Dog Lycaon pictus in the Kruger National Park

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Reich

    1978-09-01

    Full Text Available An observed case of inbreeding in a pack ot wild dogs Lycaon pictus in the Kruger National Park, Republic of South Africa, provides evidence for the phenomenon of dominance reversal in this species. This is believed to be the first recorded instance of inbreeding in Lycaon. Emigration of subordinate females from established packs of wild dogs has been documented in the Serengeti National Park and Ngorongoro Conservation Area in northern Tanzania, as well as in the Kruger National Park. However, the newly subordinate (ex-dominant female in the pack in which inbreeding has occurred has not emigrated in the 16 months since the change in her status. A possible explanation for this behaviour is given. As a result of this reversal, the pack contains at least two females capable of breeding, the subordinate of which is at least two years older than the dominant. This is considered the first record of such a breeding structure in Lycaon.

  19. Predicting Soil Strength in Terms of Cone Index and California Bearing Ratio for Trafficability

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-03-01

    soil conditions. Off-road predictions of mobility, the detection of buried ordnance, and expedient horizontal construction require a firm...Waterways Experiment Station. Terzaghi, K., and Ralph B. Peck. 1948. Soil mechanics in engineering practice. New York: John Wiley & Sons Inc

  20. A Replacement for the Silt Density Index: Permanganate Demand to Predict Reverse Osmosis Membrane Fouling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1983-10-13

    Chem. 27, 4, 662 (1979). 35. Fane,A.G.,Fell,C.J.D.,Nor,M.T. Ultrafiltration/ Activated Sludge System - Development of a Predictive Model. in...Acid, Tannin , and Lignin in Natural Waters. Water Res. 14, 373 (1980). 85. Willard,H.,Furman,N.H.,Bacon,E.K. A Short Course in Quantitative Analysis, Van

  1. The El Niño Southern Oscillation index and wildfire prediction in British Columbia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Xu, Zhen; Kooten, van G.C.

    2014-01-01

    This study investigates the potential to predict monthly wildfires and area burned in British Columbia's interior using El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) and the generalized Pareto (GP) distributions are used, respectively, to account for uncertainty in

  2. Mini-Nutritional-Assessment (MNA) without body mass index (BMI) predicts functional disability in elderly Taiwanese.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Li-Chin; Tsai, Alan Chung-hong

    2012-01-01

    Nutritional status and functional ability are mutually dependent especially in the elderly. This study examined the functional status-predictive ability of the MNA in a cross-sectional study. We analyzed the dataset of the "Survey of Health and Living Status of the Elderly in Taiwan" (SHLSET). Subjects were 2948≥65 year-old persons who were rated with the long-form (LF) and short-form (SF) MNA with or without BMI for the risk of malnutrition, and with the Activities of Daily Living (ADL) and the Instrument Activities of Daily Living (IADL) for functional status. The ADL and IADL scores were calculated according to rated nutritional status. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves were generated for ADL and IADL status predicted by the MNA. Logistic regression was performed to evaluate the association of rated MNA scores with ADL or IADL status. Results showed that both SF and LF of MNA-T1 and T2 were able to predict ADL and IADL disabilities. Those who were rated malnourished or at risk of malnutrition had drastically higher risk of ADL or IADL dependency compared to those who were rated normal. The SF versions performed well in rating nutritional status and predicting ADL and IADL status. Overall, MNA-T2-SF performed at least equally well as MNA-T1-SF in rating functional decline. These results suggest the MNA is able to predict functional decline of the elderly. MNA-T2, especially the SF, a version without BMI should be particularly useful in clinical, long-term care and community settings. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Mortality is predicted by Comorbidity Polypharmacy score but not Charlson Comorbidity Index in geriatric trauma patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nossaman, Vaughn E; Larsen, Brett E; DiGiacomo, Jody C; Manuelyan, Zara; Afram, Renee; Shukry, Sally; Kang, Amiee Luan; Munnangi, Swapna; Angus, L D George

    2017-09-19

    Increased life expectancy has resulted in more older patients at trauma centers. Traditional assessments of injuries alone may not be sufficient; age, comorbidities, and medications should be considered. 446 older trauma patients were analyzed in two groups, 45-65 years and <65, using Injury Severity Score (ISS), the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), and Comorbidity-Polypharmacy Score (CPS). CCI and CPS were associated with HLOS in patients <65. In patients aged 45-65, only CPS was associated with HLOS. CPS was inversely associated with in-hospital mortality in patients <65, but not patients aged 45-65. CCI score was not associated with in-hospital mortality in either group. Increased CCI and CPS were associated with increased HLOS. In patients over 65, increased CPS was associated with decreased mortality. This could be due to return toward physiologic normalcy in treated patients not seen in their peers with undiagnosed or untreated comorbidities. TABLE OF CONTENTS SUMMARY: In an analysis of 446 older trauma patients, the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) and Comorbidity-Polypharmacy Score (CPS) were associated with increased hospital length of stay. In patients ≥65, increased CPS had a lower mortality, possibly due to a greater return toward physiologic normalcy not present in their untreated peers. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  4. Genomic Variation of Inbreeding and Ancestry in the Remaining Two Isle Royale Wolves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hedrick, Philip W; Kardos, Marty; Peterson, Rolf O; Vucetich, John A

    2017-03-01

    Inbreeding, relatedness, and ancestry have traditionally been estimated with pedigree information, however, molecular genomic data can provide more detailed examination of these properties. For example, pedigree information provides estimation of the expected value of these measures but molecular genomic data can estimate the realized values of these measures in individuals. Here, we generate the theoretical distribution of inbreeding, relatedness, and ancestry for the individuals in the pedigree of the Isle Royale wolves, the first examination of such variation in a wild population with a known pedigree. We use the 38 autosomes of the dog genome and their estimated map lengths in our genomic analysis. Although it is known that the remaining wolves are highly inbred, closely related, and descend from only 3 ancestors, our analyses suggest that there is significant variation in the realized inbreeding and relatedness around pedigree expectations. For example, the expected inbreeding in a hypothetical offspring from the 2 remaining wolves is 0.438 but the realized 95% genomic confidence interval is from 0.311 to 0.565. For individual chromosomes, a substantial proportion of the whole chromosomes are completely identical by descent. This examination provides a background to use when analyzing molecular genomic data for individual levels of inbreeding, relatedness, and ancestry. The level of variation in these measures is a function of the time to the common ancestor(s), the number of chromosomes, and the rate of recombination. In the Isle Royale wolf population, the few generations to a common ancestor results in the high variance in genomic inbreeding. © The American Genetic Association 2016. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  5. RELATION OF INBREEDING OF HORSES OF THOROUGHBRED BREED WITH DEGREE OF HOMOZYGOSITY OF MICROSATELLITE LOCI OF DNA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melnyk О.V.

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available The degree of homozygosity of some 39 Thoroughbred horses was estimated from microsatellite analysis data. The power of inbreeding was detected towards horse pedigree. We suggested the use of genetic analysis of microsatellite loci of DNA for the determination of actual level of inbreeding.

  6. Demographic mechanisms of inbreeding adjustment through extra-pair reproduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reid, Jane M; Duthie, A Bradley; Wolak, Matthew E; Arcese, Peter

    2015-07-01

    One hypothesis explaining extra-pair reproduction is that socially monogamous females mate with extra-pair males to adjust the coefficient of inbreeding (f) of extra-pair offspring (EPO) relative to that of within-pair offspring (WPO) they would produce with their socially paired male. Such adjustment of offspring f requires non-random extra-pair reproduction with respect to relatedness, which is in turn often assumed to require some mechanism of explicit pre-copulatory or post-copulatory kin discrimination. We propose three demographic processes that could potentially cause mean f to differ between individual females' EPO and WPO given random extra-pair reproduction with available males without necessarily requiring explicit kin discrimination. Specifically, such a difference could arise if social pairings formed non-randomly with respect to relatedness or persisted non-randomly with respect to relatedness, or if the distribution of relatedness between females and their sets of potential mates changed during the period through which social pairings persisted. We used comprehensive pedigree and pairing data from free-living song sparrows (Melospiza melodia) to quantify these three processes and hence investigate how individual females could adjust mean offspring f through instantaneously random extra-pair reproduction. Female song sparrows tended to form social pairings with unrelated or distantly related males slightly less frequently than expected given random pairing within the defined set of available males. Furthermore, social pairings between more closely related mates tended to be more likely to persist across years than social pairings between less closely related mates. However, these effects were small and the mean relatedness between females and their sets of potential extra-pair males did not change substantially across the years through which social pairings persisted. Our framework and analyses illustrate how demographic and social structuring within

  7. Metabolomic signatures of inbreeding at benign and stressful temperatures in Drosophila melanogaster

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Kamilla Sofie; Kristensen, Torsten Nygaard; Loeschcke, Volker

    2008-01-01

    to an increased between-line variation in metabolite profiles compared to outbred lines. In contrast to previous observations revealing interactions between inbreeding and environmental stress on gene expression patterns and life-history traits, the effect of inbreeding on the metabolite profile was similar...... and five inbred lines were studied by nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy after exposure to benign temperature, heat stress, or cold stress. In both the absence and the presence of temperature stress, metabolite levels were significantly different among inbred and outbred lines. The major effect...

  8. The Predictive Value of the Foot Posture Index on Dynamic Function

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, R.G.; Rathleff, M.; Kersting, Uwe G.

    dynamic measures are not feasible. Redmond et. al. found the model able to predict 41% of the variation in the complex rotation of the ankle joint, representing inversion/eversion, during midstance of walking. To our knowledge no studies have been published on the relationship between FPI and the movement...... of the midfoot during walking. The purpose of this study was to investigate the use of FPI classification as a predictor for dynamic midfoot kinematics during walking....

  9. Prediction of default probability in banking industry using CAMELS index: A case study of Iranian banks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Khodaei Valahzaghard

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the relationship between CAMELS index and default probability among 20 Iranian banks. The proposed study gathers the necessary information from their financial statements over the period 2005-2011. The study uses logistic regression along with Pearson correlation analysis to consider the relationship between default probability and six independent variables including capital adequacy, asset quality, management quality, earning quality, liquidity quality and sensitivity of market risk. The results indicate that there were no meaningful relationship between default probability and three independent variables including capital adequacy, asset quality and sensitivity of market risk. However, the results of our statistical tests support such relationship between default probability and three other variables including management quality, earning quality and liquidity quality.

  10. BMD PREDICTION OF DEATH IS ENCAPSULATED BY THE MORPHOLOGICAL ATHEROSCLEROSIS CALCIFICATION DISTRIBUTION (MACD) INDEX

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ganz, Melanie; Nielsen, Mads; Karsdal, Morten

    2009-01-01

    .3±0.3 years and of which CVD, cancer, and all cause deaths were recorded. The spine BMD and aortic calcification markers, AC24 and the recently proposed Morphological Atherosclerosis Calcification Distribution (MACD) index, were quantified from DXA scans and lateral X-rays respectively. The MACD...... mean differences was used. Marker correlations were analysed with Pearson's R2 and its significance of being different from zero. Significance levels were denoted as: *(p.... Conclusion: In general, the BMD decreased with age and calcification and may constitute an all cause risk factor independently from ATW. The AC24 showed a dependency on BMD for the CVD deceased, whereas MACD did not. This may be interpreted as the MACD already including the potential risk segregation of BMD...

  11. The Authoritative Parenting Index: predicting health risk behaviors among children and adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, C; Henriksen, L; Foshee, V A

    1998-06-01

    Public health research demonstrates increasing interest in mobilizing parental influence to prevent health risk behaviors among children and adolescents. This research focuses on authoritative parenting, which previous studies suggest can prevent health risk behaviors among youth. To evaluate the reliability and validity of a new survey measure of authoritative parenting, data from studies of (1) substance use in a sample of 1,236 fourth- and sixth-grade students; (2) weapon carrying and interpersonal violence in a sample of 1,490 ninth- and tenth-grade students, and (3) anger, alienation, and conflict resolution in a sample of 224 seventh- and eighth-grade students were analyzed. The Authoritative Parenting Index had a factor structure consistent with a theoretical model of the construct; had acceptable reliability; showed grade, sex, and ethnic differences consistent with other studies; and identified parenting types that varied as hypothesized with multiple indicators of social competence and health risk behaviors among children and adolescents.

  12. Recruitable collateral blood flow index predicts coronary instent restenosis after percutaneous coronary intervention

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Lisette Okkels; Thayssen, Per; Lassen, Jens Flensted

    2007-01-01

    AIMS: Collateral flow may influence long-term results after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) because of haemodynamic forces compete with the antegrade flow through the dilated lesion. The aim of the study was to assess the influence of recruitable collateral blood flow on restenosis......-derived collateral flow index (CFI) was determined as (P(w)-P(cvp))/(P(a)-P(cvp)), where P(w) represents coronary wedge pressure, P(cvp) central venous pressure, and P(a) mean aortic blood pressure. Both were measured during transient coronary occlusion by a balloon inflation of 30 s. Pre-interventional FFR (0.......65 +/- 0.20) correlated inversely with the CFI (0.18 +/- 0.11), r =- 0.356, P /=50% diameter stenosis) was seen in 29.1%. Compared to patients with poorly developed collaterals (CFI collaterals (CFI >/= 0...

  13. Predictive validity of the body adiposity index in costa rican students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carpio-Rivera, Elizabeth; Hernández-Elizondo, Jessenia; Salicetti-Fonseca, Alejandro; Solera-Herrera, Andrea; Moncada-Jiménez, José

    2016-05-01

    To verify the validity of the body adiposity index (BAI) in a sample of Costa Rican students. Volunteers were 93 females (mean age = 18.6 ± 2.4 years) and 106 males (mean age = 19.2 ± 2.8 years). Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) was used as the "gold standard" to determine body fat percentage (BF%). Pearson's correlation coefficient and paired samples t-test studied the association and mean differences between BAI and DXA BF%. Concordance between BAI and DXA BF% was determined by the Lin's concordance correlation coefficient and the Bland-Altman agreement analysis. Significant correlations between BAI and DXA BF% were found for females (r = 0.74) and males (r = 0.53) (P Periodicals, Inc. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  14. Performance of the Multidimensional Geriatric Assessment and Multidimensional Prognostic Index in predicting negative outcomes in older adults with cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giantin, V; Falci, C; De Luca, E; Valentini, E; Iasevoli, M; Siviero, P; Maggi, S; Martella, B; Crepaldi, G; Monfardini, S; Manzato, E

    2018-01-01

    The Multidimensional Geriatric Assessment (MGA) is currently used for assessing geriatric oncological patients, but a new prognostic index - the Multidimensional Prognostic Index (MPI) - has a demonstrated prognostic value in cancer patients too. The present work was designed to compare the MPI and MGA as predictors of 12-month mortality. 160 patients ≥70 years old with locally-advanced or metastatic solid cancers consecutively joining our Geriatric Oncology Program were administered a Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment to calculate their MGA and MPI scores. Geriatric Clinic, Geriatric Surgery Clinic, Medical Oncology Unit, Padova Hospital, Italy. Using Cohen's Kappa coefficient, there was a poor concordance between the MPI and MGA. Severe MPI being associated with a higher mortality risk than Frail in the MGA. The ROC curves indicated that the MPI had a greater discriminatory power for 12-month mortality than the MGA. In our population of elderly cancer patients, the MPI performed better than the MGA in predicting mortality. Further evidence from larger prospective trials is needed to establish whether other geriatric scales, such as the GDS and CIRS-SI, could enhance the value of prognostic indexes applied to elderly cancer patients. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  15. An Obesity Dietary Quality Index Predicts Abdominal Obesity in Women: Potential Opportunity for New Prevention and Treatment Paradigms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dolores M. Wolongevicz

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Links between dietary quality and abdominal obesity are poorly understood. Objective. To examine the association between an obesity-specific dietary quality index and abdominal obesity risk in women. Methods. Over 12 years, we followed 288 Framingham Offspring/Spouse Study women, aged 30–69 years, without metabolic syndrome risk factors, cardiovascular disease, cancer, or diabetes at baseline. An 11-nutrient obesity-specific dietary quality index was derived using mean ranks of nutrient intakes from 3-day dietary records. Abdominal obesity (waist circumference >88 cm was assessed during follow-up. Results. Using multiple logistic regression, women with poorer dietary quality were more likely to develop abdominal obesity compared to those with higher dietary quality (OR 1.87; 95% CI, 1.01, 3.47; P for trend =.048 independent of age, physical activity, smoking, and menopausal status. Conclusions. An obesity-specific dietary quality index predicted abdominal obesity in women, suggesting targets for dietary quality assessment, intervention, and treatment to address abdominal adiposity.

  16. Slow and stopped light in active gain composite materials of metal nanoparticles. Ultralarge group index-bandwidth product predicted

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Kwang-Hyon; Choe, Song-Hyok [Institute of Lasers, State Academy of Sciences, Unjong District, Pyongyang (Korea, Democratic People' s Republic of)

    2017-08-15

    Chip-compatible slow light devices with large group index-bandwidth products and low losses are of great interest in the community of modern photonics. In this work, active gain materials containing metal nanoparticles are proposed as the slow and stopped light materials. Gain-assisted high field enhancement in metal nanoparticles and the resultant strong dispersion lead to such phenomena. From the Maxwell-Garnett model, it is revealed that the metal nanocomposite exhibits the infinitely large group index when the gain of the host medium and the filling factor of metal nanoparticles satisfy a critical condition. For the gain of the host above the critical value, one can observe slowing down effect with amplification of light pulses. Significantly large group index-bandwidth products, which vary from a few to several thousand or even infinity depending on the gain value of the host medium, have been numerically predicted in active silica glasses containing spheroidal metal nanoparticles, as examples. The proposed scheme inherently provides the widely varying operating spectral range by changing the aspect ratio of metal nanoparticles and chip-compatibility with low cost. (copyright 2017 by WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH and Co. KGaA, Weinheim)

  17. Prediction of neonatal respiratory distress syndrome in term pregnancies by assessment of fetal lung volume and pulmonary artery resistance index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laban, Mohamed; Mansour, Ghada M; Elsafty, Mohammed S E; Hassanin, Alaa S; EzzElarab, Sahar S

    2015-03-01

    To develop reference cutoff values for mean fetal lung volume (FLV) and pulmonary artery resistance index (PA-RI) for prediction of neonatal respiratory distress syndrome (RDS) in low-risk term pregnancies. As part of a cross-sectional study, women aged 20-35 years were enrolled and admitted to a tertiary hospital in Cairo, Egypt, for elective repeat cesarean at 37-40 weeks of pregnancy between January 1, 2012, and July 31, 2013. FLV was calculated by virtual organ computer-aided analysis, and PA-RI was measured by Doppler ultrasonography before delivery. A total of 80 women were enrolled. Neonatal RDS developed in 11 (13.8%) of the 80 newborns. Compared with neonates with RDS, healthy neonates had significantly higher FLVs (P<0.001) and lower PA-RIs (P<0.001). Neonatal RDS is less likely with FLV of at least 32 cm(3) or PA-RI less than or equal to 0.74. Combining these two measures improved the accuracy of prediction. The use of either FLV or PA-RI predicted neonatal RDS. The predictive value increased when these two measures were combined. Copyright © 2014 International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Waist Circumference, Body Mass Index, and Other Measures of Adiposity in Predicting Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors among Peruvian Adults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knowles, K. M.; Paiva, L. L.; Sanchez, S. E.; Revilla, L.; Lopez, T.; Yasuda, M. B.; Yanez, N. D.; Gelaye, B.; Williams, M. A.

    2011-01-01

    Objectives. To examine the extent to which measures of adiposity can be used to predict selected components of metabolic syndrome (MetS) and elevated C-reactive protein (CRP). Methods. A total of 1,518 Peruvian adults were included in this study. Waist circumference (WC), body mass index (BMI), waist-hip ratio (WHR), waist-height ratio (WHtR), and visceral adiposity index (VAI) were examined. The prevalence of each MetS component was determined according to tertiles of each anthropometric measure. ROC curves were used to evaluate the extent to which measures of adiposity can predict cardiovascular risk. Results. All measures of adiposity had the strongest correlation with triglyceride concentrations (TG). For both genders, as adiposity increased, the prevalence of Mets components increased. Compared to individuals with low-BMI and low-WC, men and women with high-BMI and high- WC had higher odds of elevated fasting glucose, blood pressure, TG, and reduced HDL, while only men in this category had higher odds of elevated CRP. Overall, the ROCs showed VAI, WC, and WHtR to be the best predictors for individual MetS components. Conclusions. The results of our study showed that measures of adiposity are correlated with cardiovascular risk although no single adiposity measure was identified as the best predictor for MetS. PMID:21331161

  19. Predicting urban outdoor thermal comfort by the Universal Thermal Climate Index UTCI--a case study in Southern Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bröde, Peter; Krüger, Eduardo L; Rossi, Francine A; Fiala, Dusan

    2012-05-01

    Recognising that modifications to the physical attributes of urban space are able to promote improved thermal outdoor conditions and thus positively influence the use of open spaces, a survey to define optimal thermal comfort ranges for passers-by in pedestrian streets was conducted in Curitiba, Brazil. We applied general additive models to study the impact of temperature, humidity, and wind, as well as long-wave and short-wave radiant heat fluxes as summarised by the recently developed Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) on the choice of clothing insulation by fitting LOESS smoothers to observations from 944 males and 710 females aged from 13 to 91 years. We further analysed votes of thermal sensation compared to predictions of UTCI. The results showed that females chose less insulating clothing in warm conditions compared to males and that observed values of clothing insulation depended on temperature, but also on season and potentially on solar radiation. The overall pattern of clothing choice was well reflected by UTCI, which also provided for good predictions of thermal sensation votes depending on the meteorological conditions. Analysing subgroups indicated that the goodness-of-fit of the UTCI was independent of gender and age, and with only limited influence of season and body composition as assessed by body mass index. This suggests that UTCI can serve as a suitable planning tool for urban thermal comfort in sub-tropical regions.

  20. Gluten-free snacks using plantain-chickpea and maize blend: chemical composition, starch digestibility, and predicted glycemic index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flores-Silva, Pamela C; Rodriguez-Ambriz, Sandra L; Bello-Pérez, Luis A

    2015-05-01

    An increase in celiac consumers has caused an increasing interest to develop good quality gluten-free food products with high nutritional value. Snack foods are consumed worldwide and have become a normal part of the eating habits of the celiac population making them a target to improve their nutritive value. Extrusion and deep-frying of unripe plantain, chickpea, and maize flours blends produced gluten-free snacks with high dietary fiber contents (13.7-18.2 g/100 g) and low predicted glycemic index (28 to 35). The gluten-free snacks presented lower fat content (12.7 to 13.6 g/100 g) than those reported in similar commercial snacks. The snack with the highest unripe plantain flour showed higher slowly digestible starch (11.6 and 13.4 g/100 g) than its counterpart with the highest chickpea flour level (6 g/100 g). The overall acceptability of the gluten-free snacks was similar to that chili-flavored commercial snack. It was possible to develop gluten-free snacks with high dietary fiber content and low predicted glycemic index with the blend of the 3 flours, and these gluten-free snacks may also be useful as an alternative to reduce excess weight and obesity problems in the general population and celiac community. © 2015 Institute of Food Technologists®

  1. An application of plot-scale NDVI in predicting carbon dioxide exchange and leaf area index in heterogeneous subarctic tundra

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dagg, J.; Lafleur, P.

    2010-01-01

    This paper reported on a study that examined the flow of carbon into and out of tundra ecosystems. It is necessary to accurately predict carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) exchange in the Tundra because of the impacts of climate change on carbon stored in permafrost. Understanding the relationships between the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and vegetation and CO 2 exchange may explain how small-scale variation in vegetation community extends to remotely sensed estimates of landscape characteristics. In this study, CO 2 fluxes were measured with a portable chamber in a range of Tundra vegetation communities. Biomass and leaf area were measured with destructive harvest, and NDVI was obtained using a hand-held infrared camera. There was a weak correlation between NDVI and leaf area index in some vegetation communities, but a significant correlation between NDVI and biomass, including mosses. NDVI was found to be strongly related to photosynthetic activity and net CO 2 uptake in all vegetation groups. However, NDVI related to ecosystem respiration only in wet sedge. It was concluded that at plot scale, the ability of NDVI to predict ecosystem properties and CO 2 exchange in heterogeneous Tundra vegetation is variable.

  2. Efficacy of NETDC (New England Trophoblastic Disease Center prognostic index score to predict gestational trophoblastic tumor from hydatidiform mole

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khrismawan Khrismawan

    2004-03-01

    Full Text Available A prospective longitudinal analytic study assessing the efficacy of NETDC (New England Trophoblastic Disease Center prognostic index score in predicting malignancy after hydatidiform mole had been performed. Of the parameter evaluated; age of patients, type of hydatidiform mole, uterine enlargement, serum hCG level, lutein cyst, and presence of complicating factors were significant risk factors for malignancy after hydatidiform mole were evacuated (p<0.032. The study were done on 50 women diagnosed with hydatidiform mole with 1 year observation (January 2001-December 2002 at the Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Mohammad Hoesin Hospital, Palembang. The results showed that the NETDC prognostic index score predicted malignancy in 50% of high risk group and 10% in low risk group (p<0.05. This showed a higher number than that found by the WHO (19%-30%. The risk for incidence of  malignancy after hydatidiform mole in the high risk group is 9.0 times higher compared to that of the low risk group (CI: 1.769-45.786. (Med J Indones 2004; 13: 40-6 Keywords: New England Trophoblastic Disease Center (NETDC, gestational trophoblastic tumor, hydatidiform mole, high and low risk

  3. Waist Circumference, Body Mass Index, and Other Measures of Adiposity in Predicting Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors among Peruvian Adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knowles, K M; Paiva, L L; Sanchez, S E; Revilla, L; Lopez, T; Yasuda, M B; Yanez, N D; Gelaye, B; Williams, M A

    2011-01-24

    Objectives. To examine the extent to which measures of adiposity can be used to predict selected components of metabolic syndrome (MetS) and elevated C-reactive protein (CRP). Methods. A total of 1,518 Peruvian adults were included in this study. Waist circumference (WC), body mass index (BMI), waist-hip ratio (WHR), waist-height ratio (WHtR), and visceral adiposity index (VAI) were examined. The prevalence of each MetS component was determined according to tertiles of each anthropometric measure. ROC curves were used to evaluate the extent to which measures of adiposity can predict cardiovascular risk. Results. All measures of adiposity had the strongest correlation with triglyceride concentrations (TG). For both genders, as adiposity increased, the prevalence of Mets components increased. Compared to individuals with low-BMI and low-WC, men and women with high-BMI and high- WC had higher odds of elevated fasting glucose, blood pressure, TG, and reduced HDL, while only men in this category had higher odds of elevated CRP. Overall, the ROCs showed VAI, WC, and WHtR to be the best predictors for individual MetS components. Conclusions. The results of our study showed that measures of adiposity are correlated with cardiovascular risk although no single adiposity measure was identified as the best predictor for MetS.

  4. Waist Circumference, Body Mass Index, and Other Measures of Adiposity in Predicting Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors among Peruvian Adults

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. M. Knowles

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Objectives. To examine the extent to which measures of adiposity can be used to predict selected components of metabolic syndrome (MetS and elevated C-reactive protein (CRP. Methods. A total of 1,518 Peruvian adults were included in this study. Waist circumference (WC, body mass index (BMI, waist-hip ratio (WHR, waist-height ratio (WHtR, and visceral adiposity index (VAI were examined. The prevalence of each MetS component was determined according to tertiles of each anthropometric measure. ROC curves were used to evaluate the extent to which measures of adiposity can predict cardiovascular risk. Results. All measures of adiposity had the strongest correlation with triglyceride concentrations (TG. For both genders, as adiposity increased, the prevalence of Mets components increased. Compared to individuals with low-BMI and low-WC, men and women with high-BMI and high- WC had higher odds of elevated fasting glucose, blood pressure, TG, and reduced HDL, while only men in this category had higher odds of elevated CRP. Overall, the ROCs showed VAI, WC, and WHtR to be the best predictors for individual MetS components. Conclusions. The results of our study showed that measures of adiposity are correlated with cardiovascular risk although no single adiposity measure was identified as the best predictor for MetS.

  5. APPLICATILITY OF THE VISCERAL ADIPOSITY INDEX (VAI) IN THE PREDICTION OF THE COMPONENTS OF THE METABOLIC SYNDROME IN ELDERLY.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldani, Heloisa; Adami, Fernanda Scherer; Antunes, Maria Terezinha; Rosa, Luis Henrique; Fassina, Patrícia; Quevedo Grave, Magali Terezinha; Morelo Dal Bosco, Simone

    2015-10-01

    The nutritional assessment may detect a state of malnutrition, overweight and cardiometabolic risk in the elderly. Easy to apply instruments enable the identification of risk factors for cardiovascular diseases (CVD). to analyze the applicability of Visceral Adiposity Index (VAI) in the prediction of MS components in the elderly. cross-sectional study with 221 elderly at a mean age of 70.65 ± 7.34 years; 53.4% female and 46.4% male. Weight, height, waist circumference (WC), fasting glucose, triglycerides (TG), total cholesterol (TC), HDL cholesterol (HDL-C), LDL cholesterol (LDL-C), and blood pressure (BP), data was obtained, as well as information about lifestyle. There were calculated the Body Mass Index (BMI), the Waist-Hip Ratio (WHR), and the VAI. The adiposity measures were compared with the components of MS, and for the VAI there was determined the capability of predicting the occurrence of MS components. by analyzing the association among the biochemical and pressoric variables and MS components with the anthropometric indicators of obesity, there was a direct and significant correlation of the BMI, the weight and the VAI with blood glucose, HDL and TG (p. Copyright AULA MEDICA EDICIONES 2014. Published by AULA MEDICA. All rights reserved.

  6. Predicting urban outdoor thermal comfort by the Universal Thermal Climate Index UTCI—a case study in Southern Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bröde, Peter; Krüger, Eduardo L.; Rossi, Francine A.; Fiala, Dusan

    2012-05-01

    Recognising that modifications to the physical attributes of urban space are able to promote improved thermal outdoor conditions and thus positively influence the use of open spaces, a survey to define optimal thermal comfort ranges for passers-by in pedestrian streets was conducted in Curitiba, Brazil. We applied general additive models to study the impact of temperature, humidity, and wind, as well as long-wave and short-wave radiant heat fluxes as summarised by the recently developed Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) on the choice of clothing insulation by fitting LOESS smoothers to observations from 944 males and 710 females aged from 13 to 91 years. We further analysed votes of thermal sensation compared to predictions of UTCI. The results showed that females chose less insulating clothing in warm conditions compared to males and that observed values of clothing insulation depended on temperature, but also on season and potentially on solar radiation. The overall pattern of clothing choice was well reflected by UTCI, which also provided for good predictions of thermal sensation votes depending on the meteorological conditions. Analysing subgroups indicated that the goodness-of-fit of the UTCI was independent of gender and age, and with only limited influence of season and body composition as assessed by body mass index. This suggests that UTCI can serve as a suitable planning tool for urban thermal comfort in sub-tropical regions.

  7. Application of a functional mathematical index (FMI) for predicting effects of the composition of jujube fruit on nutritional quality and health

    Science.gov (United States)

    In the present study, we extend the concept of a Functional Mathematical Index (FMI) for the assessment and prediction of food quality and safety of jujube fruit, a medicinal food widely consumed in Asian countries. In this study the index has been applied to one field-grown jujube fruit harvested a...

  8. Index to Predict In-hospital Mortality in Older Adults after Non-traumatic Emergency Department Intubations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kei Ouchi

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Our goal was to develop and validate an index to predict in-hospital mortality in older adults after non-traumatic emergency department (ED intubations. Methods: We used Vizient administrative data from hospitalizations of 22,374 adults ≥75 years who underwent non-traumatic ED intubation from 2008–2015 at nearly 300 U.S. hospitals to develop and validate an index to predict in-hospital mortality. We randomly selected one half of participants for the development cohort and one half for the validation cohort. Considering 25 potential predictors, we developed a multivariable logistic regression model using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator method to determine factors associated with in-hospital mortality. We calculated risk scores using points derived from the final model’s beta coefficients. To evaluate calibration and discrimination of the final model, we used Hosmer-Lemeshow chi-square test and receiver-operating characteristic analysis and compared mortality by risk groups in the development and validation cohorts. Results: Death during the index hospitalization occurred in 40% of cases. The final model included six variables: history of myocardial infarction, history of cerebrovascular disease, history of metastatic cancer, age, admission diagnosis of sepsis, and admission diagnosis of stroke/ intracranial hemorrhage. Those with low-risk scores (10 had 58% risk of in-hospital mortality. The Hosmer-Lemeshow chi-square of the model was 6.47 (p=0.09, and the c-statistic was 0.62 in the validation cohort. Conclusion: The model may be useful in identifying older adults at high risk of death after ED intubation.

  9. Predicting outcome in patients with left ventricular systolic chronic heart failure using a nutritional risk index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Najjar, Yahya; Clark, Andrew L

    2012-05-01

    Mortality in patients with chronic heart failure (CHF) is high and associated with body mass. However, the best method of assessing nutritional status in patients with CHF is not clear. We sought to demonstrate the prognostic use of a nutritional risk index (NRI) in ambulatory patients with CHF. Consecutive patients attending their first quarterly review appointment in the HF clinic were recruited. All patients had systolic left ventricular (LV) dysfunction. An NRI was calculated as: (1.5 × serum albumin [grams per liter]) + (current body weight/ideal weight). Patients were followed up every 4 months. Of the 538 patients enrolled in the study 75% were men. The patients' age was 71 ± 10 years (mean ± SD) and total median follow-up in survivors was 68 months (interquartile range 54 to 74). New York Heart Association classes II and III accounted for 60% and 27%, respectively, with 80% having moderate LV impairment or worse. Based on the NRI 23% of patients were at risk of malnutrition. Severely malnourished patients were older. There was no relation between NRI and LV function. The NRI was a univariable predictor of mortality (chi-square 25, p NRI is useful as a prognostic marker in patients with CHF in an outpatient setting. NRI might be of use as a surrogate marker for nutritional status in trials of dietary supplementation in CHF. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Psychosocial characteristics of drunk drivers assessed by the Addiction Severity Index, prediction of relapse.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hubicka, Beata; Laurell, Hans; Bergman, Hans

    2010-02-01

    To investigate psychosocial characteristics and problems of a representative sample of Swedish drunk drivers with special consideration of the gender of the driver; analyze criminal records of the drivers before and after enrollment in the study; identify psychosocial predictors of relapse to drunk driving. Psychosocial characteristics were assessed by the Addiction Severity Index (ASI). Alcohol problems were additionally assessed by the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT). Criminal records were collected for the five year period before the enrollment, and for the subsequent two years, from Sweden's official crime statistics. About half of the investigated drivers had other psychosocial problems besides the drink driving offence. Female drivers had more alcohol, drug, psychiatric and relational problems, including with parents when growing up, than male drivers, but less previous and subsequent criminality. Heavily drunk drivers (blood alcohol concentration > or = 0.1%) had more problems with alcohol, legal status and employment and support than the other drunk drivers. Problems with legal status, family and social relations and alcohol use increased the risk of relapse in drunk driving, while medical problems seemed to be a protective factor. Different ASI risk factors were identified for relapse in either traffic offences or other crimes. As well as the drunk driving offence, drunk drivers often have other psychosocial problems, female drivers in particular. Already the blood alcohol concentration per se gives some indication of the psychosocial problem profile of a drunk driver and the ASI profile has some prognostic value for relapse in drunk driving.

  11. Accurate wavelength prediction of photonic crystal resonant reflection and applications in refractive index measurement

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hermannsson, Pétur Gordon; Vannahme, Christoph; Smith, Cameron L. C.

    2014-01-01

    and superstrate materials. The importance of accounting for material dispersion in order to obtain accurate simulation results is highlighted, and a method for doing so using an iterative approach is demonstrated. Furthermore, an application for the model is demonstrated, in which the material dispersion......In the past decade, photonic crystal resonant reflectors have been increasingly used as the basis for label-free biochemical assays in lab-on-a-chip applications. In both designing and interpreting experimental results, an accurate model describing the optical behavior of such structures...... is essential. Here, an analytical method for precisely predicting the absolute positions of resonantly reflected wavelengths is presented. The model is experimentally verified to be highly accurate using nanoreplicated, polymer-based photonic crystal grating reflectors with varying grating periods...

  12. Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve-Based Prediction Model for Periodontal Disease Updated With the Calibrated Community Periodontal Index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Chiu-Wen; Yen, Amy Ming-Fang; Lai, Hongmin; Chen, Hsiu-Hsi; Chen, Sam Li-Sheng

    2017-12-01

    The accuracy of a prediction model for periodontal disease using the community periodontal index (CPI) has been undertaken by using an area under a receiver operating characteristics (AUROC) curve. How the uncalibrated CPI, as measured by general dentists trained by periodontists in a large epidemiologic study, and affects the performance in a prediction model, has not been researched yet. A two-stage design was conducted by first proposing a validation study to calibrate CPI between a senior periodontal specialist and trained general dentists who measured CPIs in the main study of a nationwide survey. A Bayesian hierarchical logistic regression model was applied to estimate the non-updated and updated clinical weights used for building up risk scores. How the calibrated CPI affected performance of the updated prediction model was quantified by comparing AUROC curves between the original and updated models. Estimates regarding calibration of CPI obtained from the validation study were 66% and 85% for sensitivity and specificity, respectively. After updating, clinical weights of each predictor were inflated, and the risk score for the highest risk category was elevated from 434 to 630. Such an update improved the AUROC performance of the two corresponding prediction models from 62.6% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 61.7% to 63.6%) for the non-updated model to 68.9% (95% CI: 68.0% to 69.6%) for the updated one, reaching a statistically significant difference (P prediction model was demonstrated for periodontal disease as measured by the calibrated CPI derived from a large epidemiologic survey.

  13. Transvaginal cervical length and amniotic fluid index: can it predict delivery latency following preterm premature rupture of membranes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehra, Suwan; Amon, Erol; Hopkins, Sarah; Gavard, Jeffrey A; Shyken, Jaye

    2015-03-01

    We sought to determine whether transvaginal cervical length (TVCL), amniotic fluid index (AFI), or a combination of both can predict delivery latency within 7 days in women presenting with preterm premature rupture of membranes (PPROM). This was a prospective observational study of TVCL measurements in 106 singleton pregnancies with PPROM between 23-33 weeks. Delivery latency was defined as the period (in days) from the initial TVCL after PPROM to delivery of the infant, with our primary outcome being delivery within 7 days of TVCL. The independent predictability of significant characteristics for delivery within 7 days was determined using multiple logistic regression. Sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values were used to examine whether the presence of a short TVCL, AFI, or a combination of both affected the risk of delivery within 7 days. Delivery within 7 days occurred in 51/106 (48%) of pregnancies. Median duration (interquartile range) from PPROM to delivery and TVCL to delivery was 8 days (4.0-16.0) and 8 days (3.0-15.0), respectively. Using multiple regression TVCL as a continuous variable (odds ratio, 0.65; 95% confidence interval, 0.44-0.97; P 7 days for TVCL >2 cm alone was 61%. This predictive value changed when analyzed in conjunction with an AFI ≤5 cm and >5 cm at 42% and 89%, respectively. A shorter TVCL and an AFI ≤5 cm independently predict delivery within 7 days in women presenting with PPROM. The combination of an AFI >5 cm and TVCL >2 cm greatly improved the potential to remain undelivered at 7 days following cervical length assessment. These findings may be helpful for counseling and optimizing maternal and neonatal care in women with PPROM. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Charlson comorbidity index derived from chart review or administrative data: agreement and prediction of mortality in intensive care patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stavem, Knut; Hoel, Henrik; Skjaker, Stein Arve; Haagensen, Rolf

    2017-01-01

    This study compared the Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) information derived from chart review and administrative systems to assess the completeness and agreement between scores, evaluate the capacity to predict 30-day and 1-year mortality in intensive care unit (ICU) patients, and compare the predictive capacity with that of the Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) II model. Using data from 959 patients admitted to a general ICU in a Norwegian university hospital from 2007 to 2009, we compared the CCI score derived from chart review and administrative systems. Agreement was assessed using % agreement, kappa, and weighted kappa. The capacity to predict 30-day and 1-year mortality was assessed using logistic regression, model discrimination with the c -statistic, and calibration with a goodness-of-fit statistic. The CCI was complete (n=959) when calculated from chart review, but less complete from administrative data (n=839). Agreement was good, with a weighted kappa of 0.667 (95% confidence interval: 0.596-0.714). The c -statistics for categorized CCI scores from charts and administrative data were similar in the model that included age, sex, and type of admission: 0.755 and 0.743 for 30-day mortality, respectively, and 0.783 and 0.775, respectively, for 1-year mortality. Goodness-of-fit statistics supported the model fit. The CCI scores from chart review and administrative data showed good agreement and predicted 30-day and 1-year mortality in ICU patients. CCI combined with age, sex, and type of admission predicted mortality almost as well as the physiology-based SAPS II.

  15. Using Canopy Reflectance and Crop Stress Index to Enhance Wheat Yield Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asadi, S.; Zare, H.; Paymard, P.; Lashkari, A.; Salehnia, N.; Bannayan, M.

    2015-12-01

    Canopy reflectance can be useful indicator of crop health status. Canopy stress index (CSI) is usually expressed as canopy temperature minus air temperature, and this value is higher and a positive number in a well irrigated wheat field. Three main environmental variables constructing CSI are: plant canopy temperature (Tc), air temperature (Ta) and atmospheric vapor pressure deficiency (VPD). CSI is effected by biological and environmental factors such as soil water status, wind speed, evapotranspiration, conduction systems, plant metabolism, air temperature, relative humidity, etc. which all influence on final yield. This paper aims to investigate the relation of CSI calculated by Landsat images and wheat yield. So, eighteen wheat fields were selected for two years (2009 and 2010) and 5 Landsat images (TM and ETM+) from April to Jun were used to monitor field status in each year. Tc was calculated by applying single-channel method and VPD was computed from Tc, air temperature and humidity. Each single Landsat bands and CSI were defined as the descriptor variables. Relation between wheat yield and the descriptors was assessed by means of linear correlation. The results of stepwise correlation depicted that band 1 (blue) and 3 (red) had the most correlations to yield until grain filling stage. This reflects the importance of photosynthesis rate which absorb blue and red wavelength during mentioned period. This two bands also could capture yield changes (r2=0.77). However, during grain filling period CSI was the only descriptor determining yield volatility (r2=0.85). Low temperature is one of the key factors which increase remobilization of carbohydrate to grain. Therefore, grain yield in the canopy which has less temperature in compared to air temperature would be higher than others.

  16. Interval Changes in Myocardial Performance Index Predict Outcome in Severe Sepsis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nizamuddin, Junaid; Mahmood, Feroze; Tung, Avery; Mueller, Ariel; Brown, Samuel M; Shaefi, Shahzad; O'Connor, Michael; Talmor, Daniel; Shahul, Sajid

    2017-06-01

    Septic cardiomyopathy is a well-described consequence of septic shock and is associated with increased sepsis-related mortality. The myocardial performance index (MPI), a parameter derived from echocardiographic tissue Doppler measurements, allows for a more sensitive assessment of global cardiac function than do traditional metrics for cardiac function. The authors hypothesized that changes in left ventricular MPI in patients with severe sepsis would be associated with a higher 90-day mortality. Prospective, observational study. Intensive care units of a tertiary medical center. The study comprised 47 patients admitted with new diagnoses of severe sepsis or septic shock. All patients underwent transthoracic echocardiograms with assessment of MPI at enrollment and 24 hours later. Hemodynamic data and information on sepsis-related mortality were collected. In the primary analysis, the association between change in MPI from enrollment to 24 hours and sepsis-related 90-day mortality was assessed. Of the 47 patients enrolled, 30 demonstrated an improvement in MPI from 0 to 24 hours ("improved" group), and MPI worsened in the remaining 17 patients ("worsened" group). Despite no significant differences in ejection fraction or severity of illness, the median MPI at enrollment in the "improved" group was higher than baseline values in the "worsened" group (p = 0.005). A worsening MPI over the 24-hour study interval was associated with increased mortality at 90 days (p = 0.04), which remained significant (hazard ratio 3.72; 95% confidence interval 1.12-12.41; p = 0.03) after adjusting for severity of illness (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score), intravenous fluids, and vasopressor use. In patients admitted to the intensive care unit with a diagnosis of severe sepsis or septic shock, a worsening MPI during the first 24 hours after intensive care unit admission was associated with higher 90-day mortality. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights

  17. PIV pictures of stream field predict haemolysis index of centrifugal pump with streamlined impeller.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qian, K X; Feng, Z G; Ru, W M; Zeng, P; Yuan, H Y

    2007-01-01

    Previously it has been found by pump haemolysis testing that the flow rate has a remarkable effect on index of haemolysis (IH), while pressure head does not affect IH. Recent investigation with particle image velocimetry (PIV) technology has demonstrated that IH is directly related to the flow pattern of stream field in impeller vane channels. PIV is a visible approach showing the real flow status in the pump. The different positions of a tracer particle in two PIV pictures taken at 20 micros intervals decide the velocity value and direction. The velocity vectors of many particles draw the flow pattern of the stream field. The same pictures are taken at 2, 4 and 6 l min(-1) flow rates while the pressure head is kept unchanged at 100 mmHg; then the pictures are taken at 4 l min(-1) flow with different pressure heads of 80, 100 and 120 mmHg. Results reveal that the flow rate of 4 l min(-1) (IH = 0.030) has the best stream field, and neither turbulence nor separation can be seen. In other flow rates (IH: 0.048 - 0.082), there is obviously second flow. Meanwhile, no significant difference can be seen among the PIV pictures of different pressure heads pumped, which agrees with the results of haemolysis testing showing that pressure has no effect on pump haemolysis. It may be concluded that the haemolysis property of a centrifugal pump can be assessed approximately by PIV pictures, which are much easier to take than haemolysis tests.

  18. Heat stress but not inbreeding affects offensive sperm competitiveness in Callosobruchus maculatus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lieshout, Emile; Tomkins, Joseph L; Simmons, Leigh W

    2013-09-01

    Environmental and genetic stress have well-known detrimental effects on ejaculate quality, but their concomitant effect on male fitness remains poorly understood. We used competitive fertilization assays to expose the effects of stress on offensive sperm competitive ability in the beetle Callosobruchus maculatus, a species where ejaculates make up more than 5% of male body mass. To examine the effects of environmental and genetic stress, males derived from outcrosses or sib matings were heat shocked at 50°C for 50 min during the pupal stage, while their siblings were maintained at a standard rearing temperature of 28°C. Heat-shocked males achieved only half the offensive paternity success of their siblings. While this population exhibited inbreeding depression in body size, sperm competitiveness was unaffected by inbreeding, nor did the effect of heat shock stress on sperm competitiveness depend on inbreeding status. In contrast, pupal emergence success was increased by 34% among heat-stressed individuals, regardless of their inbreeding status. Heat-shocked males' ejaculate size was 19% reduced, but they exhibited 25% increased mating duration in single mating trials. Our results highlight both the importance of stress in postcopulatory sexual selection, and the variability among stressors in affecting male fitness.

  19. Inbreeding depression in urban environments of the bird's nest fungus Cyathus stercoreus (Nidulariaceae: Basidiomycota).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malloure, B D; James, T Y

    2013-04-01

    Many organisms display codispersal of offspring, but fewer display codispersal of compatible gametes. This mechanism enhances the ability of a species to colonize after long distance dispersal as a mechanism of reproductive assurance, but it also fosters inbreeding and potential reduction in fitness. Here we investigated both long distance dispersal and inbreeding in the bird's nest fungus Cyathus stercoreus, a dung and mulch-associated fungus with a splash cup fruiting body appearing like a miniature bird's nest of 'eggs' or peridioles that contain thousands of mating compatible meiotic spores. To investigate the genetic structure in the species, six North American urban populations were hierarchically sampled and genotyped using 10 microsatellite markers. We detected significant levels of inbreeding through heterozygote deficiencies at four loci, with global FIS=0.061. Dispersal limitation was suggested by both spatial autocorrelation and the detection of population structure between Louisiana and Michigan using clustering and F-statistics. Although inbreeding may facilitate colonization by the fungus, it has a negative effect on the fitness of populations as estimated from a 15% reduction in growth rates of inbred strains relative to outcrossed. Mating tests revealed that C. stercoreus has a higher estimated number of mating-type alleles (MAT-A= 39, MAT-B= 24) than other species of bird's nest fungi, which would increase its outcrossing efficiency. We speculate that the increased number of mating-type alleles is the result of a recent range and population size expansion into urban environments.

  20. Effects of seed size, inbreeding and maternal sex on offspring fitness in gynodioecious Plantago coronopus

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koelewijn, H.P.; Damme, van J.M.M.

    2005-01-01

    1 Male steriles (MS) must have a fitness advantage relative to hermaphrodites (H) if they are to be maintained in gynodioecious species. We report experiments in which we disentangle the relative contributions of seed size, inbreeding and maternal sex to the fitness advantage of male steriles in

  1. Rate of inbreeding and effective population size in four major South ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    huis

    Netherlands, New Zealand, Switzerland and the United States. Semen from Taurus, the local AI company, is also used extensively in the South African dairy industry. Literature estimates of rate of inbreeding and effective population size are not currently available for the South African dairy cattle breeds even though the.

  2. Performance of Seven Tree Breeding Strategies Under Conditions of Inbreeding Depression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Harry X; Hallingbäck, Henrik R; Sánchez, Leopoldo

    2016-01-06

    In the domestication and breeding of tree species that suffer from inbreeding depression (ID), the long-term performance of different breeding strategies is poorly known. Therefore, seven tree breeding strategies including single population, subline, selfing, and nucleus breeding were simulated using a multi-locus model with additive, partial, and complete dominance allele effects, and with intermediate, U-shaped, and major allele distributions. The strategies were compared for genetic gain, inbreeding accumulation, capacity to show ID, the frequencies and fixations of unfavorable alleles, and genetic variances in breeding and production populations. Measured by genetic gain of production population, the nucleus breeding and the single breeding population with mass selection strategies were equal or superior to subline and single breeding population with within-family selection strategies in all simulated scenarios, in spite of their higher inbreeding coefficients. Inbreeding and cross-breeding effectively decreased ID and could in some scenarios produce genetic gains during the first few generations. However, in all scenarios, considerable fixation of unfavorable alleles rendered the purging performance of selfing and cross-breeding strategies ineffective, and resulted in substantial inferiority in comparison to the other strategies in the long-term. Copyright © 2016 Wu et al.

  3. Extreme temperatures increase the deleterious consequences of inbreeding under laboratory and semi-natural conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Torsten Nygård; Barker, J. Stuart F.; Pedersen, Kamilla Sofie

    2008-01-01

    The majority of experimental studies of the effects of population bottlenecks on fitness are performed under laboratory conditions, which do not account for the environmental complexity that populations face in nature. In this study, we test inbreeding depression in multiple replicates of inbred ...

  4. Towards a complete North American Anabaptist Genealogy II: analysis of inbreeding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agarwala, R; Schäffer, A A; Tomlin, J F

    2001-08-01

    We describe a large genealogy data base, which can be searched by computer, of 295,095 Amish and Mennonite individuals. The data base was constructed by merging our existing Anabaptist Genealogy Database 2.0 containing approximately 85,000 individuals with a genealogy file containing approximately 242,000 individuals, kindly provided by Mr. James Hostetler. The merging process corrected thousands of inconsistencies and eliminated hundreds of duplicate individuals. Geneticists have long been interested in Anabaptist populations because they are closed and have detailed written genealogies. The creation of an enlarged and unified data base affords the opportunity to examine inbreeding trends and correlates in these populations. We show the following results. The frequency of consanguineous marriages shows steady increase over time and reached approximately 85% for individuals born in 1940-1959. Among consanguineous marriages, the median kinship coefficient stayed stable in the 19th century, but rose from 0.0115 to 0.0151 in the 20th century. There are statistically significant associations (p < 0.0001) between inbreeding and family size and interbirth intervals in the 20th century. There is an association (p < 0.0005) between inbreeding and early death for individuals born in 1920-1959. However, this association reverses dramatically (p < 0.0005 in the opposite direction) for individuals born in 1960-1979. We tested for an association between inbreeding and being the mother of twins, but found none.

  5. Genetic variation of inbreeding depression among floral and fitness traits in Silene nutans

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thiele, Jan; Hansen, Thomas Møller; Siegismund, Hans Redlef

    2010-01-01

    The magnitude and variation of inbreeding depression (ID) within populations is important for the evolution and maintenance of mixed mating systems. We studied ID and its genetic variation in a range of floral and fitness traits in a small and large population of the perennial herb Silene nutans,...

  6. Variation in the strength of inbreeding depression across environments: effects of stress and density dependence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yun, Li; Agrawal, Aneil F

    2014-12-01

    In what types of environments should we expect to find strong inbreeding depression? Previous studies indicate that inbreeding depression, δ, is positively correlated with the stressfulness of the environment in which it is measured. However, it remains unclear why stress, per se, should increase δ. To our knowledge, only "competitive stress" has a logical connection to δ. Through competition for resources, better quality (outbred) individuals make the environment worse for lower quality (inbred) individuals, accentuating the differences between them. For this reason, we expect inbreeding depression to be stronger in environments where the fitness of individuals is more sensitive to the presence of conspecifics (i.e., where fitness is more density dependent). Indeed, some studies suggest a role for competition within environments, but this idea has not been tested in the context of understanding variation in δ across environments. Using Drosophila melanogaster, we estimated δ for viability in 22 different environments. These environments were simultaneously characterized for (1) stressfulness and (2) density dependence. Although stress and density dependence are moderately correlated with each other, inbreeding depression is much more strongly correlated with density dependence. These results suggest that mean selection across the genome is stronger in environments where competition is intense, rather than in environments that are stressful for other reasons. © 2014 The Author(s). Evolution © 2014 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

  7. The effects of inbreeding and heat stress on male sterility in Drosophila melanogaster

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Louise Dybdahl; Pedersen, Asger Roer; Bijlsma, Kuke

    2011-01-01

    in benign and stressful environments using Drosophila melanogaster as a model organism. Male sterility was compared in 21 inbred lines and five non-inbred control lines at 25.0 and 29.0 °C. The effect of inbreeding on sterility was significant only at 29.0 °C. This stress-induced increase in sterility...

  8. Effects of seed size, inbreeding and maternal sex on offspring fitness in gynodioecious Plantago coronopus

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koelewijn, H.P.; Van Damme, J.M.M.

    2005-01-01

    Male steriles (MS) must have a fitness advantage relative to hermaphrodites (H) if they are to be maintained in gynodioecious species. We report experiments in which we disentangle the relative contributions of seed size, inbreeding and maternal sex to the fitness advantage of male steriles in

  9. Feral Pigeons (Columba livia Prefer Genetically Similar Mates despite Inbreeding Depression.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gwenaël Jacob

    Full Text Available Avoidance of mating between related individuals is usually considered adaptive because it decreases the probability of inbreeding depression in offspring. However, mating between related partners can be adaptive if outbreeding depression is stronger than inbreeding depression or if females gain inclusive fitness benefits by mating with close kin. In the present study, we used microsatellite data to infer the parentage of juveniles born in a French colony of feral pigeons, which allowed us to deduce parent pairs. Despite detectable inbreeding depression, we found that pairwise relatedness between mates was significantly higher than between nonmates, with a mean coefficient of relatedness between mates of 0.065, approximately half the theoretical value for first cousins. This higher relatedness between mates cannot be explained by spatial genetic structure in this colonial bird; it therefore probably results from an active choice. As inbreeding but not outbreeding depression is observed in the study population, this finding accords with the idea that mating with genetically similar mates can confer a benefit in terms of inclusive fitness. Our results and published evidence suggest that preference for related individuals as mates might be relatively frequent in birds.

  10. Inbreeding and gene flow : the population genetics of plant species in fragmented landscapes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mix, Carolin

    2006-01-01

    Habitat fragmentation has been recognized as one of the major threats to plant population persistence. Fragmented small and isolated populations are expected to be seriously affected by inbreeding and genetic drift. Gene flow through seed and pollen dispersal may counterbalance the negative

  11. Prognostic value of a systemic inflammatory response index in metastatic renal cell carcinoma and construction of a predictive model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Hongzhao; Chen, Luyao; Li, Xintao; Zhang, Yu; Xie, Yongpeng; Zhang, Xu

    2017-01-01

    Inflammation act as a crucial role in carcinogenesis and tumor progression. In this study, we aim to investigate the prognostic significance of systemic inflammatory biomarkers in metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC) and develop a survival predictive model. One hundred and sixty-one mRCC patients who had undergone cytoreductive nephrectomy were enrolled from January 2006 to December 2013. We created a systemic inflammation response index (SIRI) basing on pretreatment hemoglobin and lymphocyte to monocyte ratio (LMR), and evaluated its associations with overall survival (OS) and clinicopathological features. Pretreatment hemoglobin and LMR both remained as independent factors adjusted for other markers of systemic inflammation responses and conventional clinicopathological parameters. A high SIRI seems to be an independent prognosis predictor of worse OS and was significantly correlated with aggressive tumor behaviors. Inclusion of the SIRI into a prognostic model including Fuhrman grade, histology, tumor necrosis and targeted therapy established a nomogram, which accurately predicted 1-year survival for mRCC patients. The SIRI seems to be a prognostic biomarker in mRCC patients. The proposed nomogram can be applied to predict OS of patients with mRCC after nephrectomy. PMID:28881716

  12. The Net Reclassification Index (NRI): a Misleading Measure of Prediction Improvement Even with Independent Test Data Sets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pepe, Margaret S; Fan, Jing; Feng, Ziding; Gerds, Thomas; Hilden, Jorgen

    2015-10-01

    The Net Reclassification Index (NRI) is a very popular measure for evaluating the improvement in prediction performance gained by adding a marker to a set of baseline predictors. However, the statistical properties of this novel measure have not been explored in depth. We demonstrate the alarming result that the NRI statistic calculated on a large test dataset using risk models derived from a training set is likely to be positive even when the new marker has no predictive information. A related theoretical example is provided in which an incorrect risk function that includes an uninformative marker is proven to erroneously yield a positive NRI. Some insight into this phenomenon is provided. Since large values for the NRI statistic may simply be due to use of poorly fitting risk models, we suggest caution in using the NRI as the basis for marker evaluation. Other measures of prediction performance improvement, such as measures derived from the ROC curve, the net benefit function and the Brier score, cannot be large due to poorly fitting risk functions.

  13. Evaluation of the Cerebral State Index in Cats under Isoflurane Anaesthesia: Dose-Effect Relationship and Prediction of Clinical Signs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joana R. Sousa

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The performance of the cerebral state index (CSI in reflecting different levels of isoflurane anaesthesia was evaluated in ten cats subjected to four end-tidal isoflurane concentrations (EtIso, each maintained for 15 minutes (0.8%, 1.2%, 1.6%, or 2.0% EtIso. The CSI, hemodynamic data, ocular reflexes, and eye position were recorded for each EtIso concentration. Pharmacodynamic analysis of CSI with EtIso was performed, as well as prediction probability analysis with a clinical scale based on the eye reflexes. The CSI values showed great variability. Between all parameters, burst suppression ratio showed the better fitting with the sigmoidal concentration-effect model (R2=0.93 followed by CSI (R2=0.82 and electromyographic activity (R2=0.79. EtIso was the variable with better prediction of the clinical scale of anaesthesia (prediction probability value of 0.94. Although the CSI values decrease with increasing isoflurane concentrations, the huge variability in CSI values may be a strong limitation for its use in cats and it seems to be no better than EtIso as a predictor of clinical signs.

  14. "Predictability of body mass index for diabetes: Affected by the presence of metabolic syndrome?"

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khalili Davood

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Metabolic syndrome (MetS and body mass index (BMI, kg.m-2 are established independent risk factors in the development of diabetes; we prospectively examined their relative contributions and joint relationship with incident diabetes in a Middle Eastern cohort. Method participants of the ongoing Tehran lipid and glucose study are followed on a triennial basis. Among non-diabetic participants aged≥ 20 years at baseline (8,121 those with at least one follow-up examination (5,250 were included for the current study. Multivariate logistic regression models were used to estimate sex-specific adjusted odd ratios (ORs and 95% confidence intervals (CIs of baseline BMI-MetS categories (normal weight without MetS as reference group for incident diabetes among 2186 men and 3064 women, aged ≥ 20 years, free of diabetes at baseline. Result During follow up (median 6.5 years; there were 369 incident diabetes (147 in men. In women without MetS, the multivariate adjusted ORs (95% CIs for overweight (BMI 25-30 kg/m2 and obese (BMI≥30 participants were 2.3 (1.2-4.3 and 2.2 (1.0-4.7, respectively. The corresponding ORs for men without MetS were 1.6 (0.9-2.9 and 3.6 (1.5-8.4 respectively. As compared to the normal-weight/without MetS, normal-weight women and men with MetS, had a multivariate-adjusted ORs for incident diabetes of 8.8 (3.7-21.2 and 3.1 (1.3-7.0, respectively. The corresponding ORs for overweight and obese women with MetS reached to 7.7 (4.0-14.9 and 12.6 (6.9-23.2 and for men reached to 3.4(2.0-5.8 and 5.7(3.9-9.9, respectively. Conclusion This study highlights the importance of screening for MetS in normal weight individuals. Obesity increases diabetes risk in the absence of MetS, underscores the need for more stringent criteria to define healthy metabolic state among obese individuals. Weight reduction measures, thus, should be encouraged in conjunction with achieving metabolic targets not addressed by current definition of

  15. Indexed left atrial volume predicts the recurrence of non-valvular atrial fibrillation after successful cardioversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marchese, Procolo; Bursi, Francesca; Delle Donne, Grazia; Malavasi, Vincenzo; Casali, Edoardo; Barbieri, Andrea; Melandri, Francesco; Modena, Maria Grazia

    2011-03-01

    Atrial fibrillation (AFib) induces remodelling of the left atrium (LA). Indexed LA volume (iLAV) as more accurate measure of LA size has not been evaluated as predictor of recurrence of AFib after cardioversion. We identified 411 adults (mean age 64.1 ± 11.4 years, 34.5% women) who underwent successful cardioversion and with no history of other atrial arrhythmia, stroke, congenital heart disease, valvular dysfunction, surgery, thyroid dysfunction, acute or chronic inflammatory disease, and pacemaker. All echocardiographic data were retrieved from the laboratory database. iLAV was measured off-line using Simpson's method. Clinical characteristics and recurrence of clinical AFib were determined by review of medical records. Patients with scheduled follow-up of at least 6 months were included. About 250 patients (60.8%) developed AFib recurrence after a median (25th-75th percentile) follow-up of 345.0 (210.0-540.0) days. Patients with AFib recurrence had significantly greater iLAV than patients without AFib recurrence (39.7 ± 8.4 vs. 31.4 ± 4.6, P < 0.001). Each mL/m(2) increase in iLAV was associated with a 30% increased risk of AFib recurrence [odds ratio (OR) 1.30, confidence interval (CI) 1.23-1.38, P < 0.001]. In a multivariable model, each mL/m(2) increase in iLAV was independently associated with a 21% increase in the risk of AFib recurrence (OR 1.21, CI 1.11-1.30, P < 0.001). The areas under receiver operating characteristic curves, generated to compare LA diameter and iLAV as predictors of AFib recurrence, were 0.59 ± 0.3 and 0.85 ± 0.2, respectively (P < 0.001). The present study is the first to show that larger iLAV before cardioversion, as a more accurate measure of LA remodelling than LA diameter, is strongly and independently associated with higher risks of AFib recurrence.

  16. Seasonal cycle of inbreeding and recombination of the parasitic mite Varroa destructor in honeybee colonies and its implications for the selection of acaricide resistance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beaurepaire, Alexis L; Krieger, Klemens J; Moritz, Robin F A

    2017-06-01

    Varroa destructor is the most devastating parasite of the Western honeybee, Apis mellifera. In the light of the arm race opposing the host and its parasite, the population dynamics and genetic diversity of these organisms are key parameters. However, the life cycle of V. destructor is characterized by extreme inbreeding due to full sibling mating in the host brood cells. We here present an equation reflecting the evolution of inbreeding in such a clonal system, and compare our predictions with empirical data based on the analysis of seven microsatellite markers. This comparison revealed that the mites perform essentially incestuous mating in the beginning of the brood season. However, this pattern changes with the development of mite infestation. Despite the fact that the overall level of genetic diversity of the mites remained low through the season, multiple inbred lineages were identified in the mites we sampled in June. As a response to the decrease of brood availability and the increase of the parasite population in parallel in the colonies, these lineages recombined towards the end of the season as mites co-infest brood cells. Our results suggest that the ratio of the number of mite per brood cell in the colony determines the genetic structure of the populations of V. destructor. This intracolonial population dynamics has great relevance for the selection of acaricide resistance in V. destructor. If chemical treatments occur before the recombination phase, inbreeding will greatly enhance the fixation of resistance alleles at the colony level. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Predicting Optimal Outcomes in Cognitive Therapy or Interpersonal Psychotherapy for Depressed Individuals Using the Personalized Advantage Index Approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcus J H Huibers

    Full Text Available Although psychotherapies for depression produce equivalent outcomes, individual patients respond differently to different therapies. Predictors of outcome have been identified in the context of randomized trials, but this information has not been used to predict which treatment works best for the depressed individual. In this paper, we aim to replicate a recently developed treatment selection method, using data from an RCT comparing the effects of cognitive therapy (CT and interpersonal psychotherapy (IPT.134 depressed patients completed the pre- and post-treatment BDI-II assessment. First, we identified baseline predictors and moderators. Second, individual treatment recommendations were generated by combining the identified predictors and moderators in an algorithm that produces the Personalized Advantage Index (PAI, a measure of the predicted advantage in one therapy compared to the other, using standard regression analyses and the leave-one-out cross-validation approach.We found five predictors (gender, employment status, anxiety, personality disorder and quality of life and six moderators (somatic complaints, cognitive problems, paranoid symptoms, interpersonal self-sacrificing, attributional style and number of life events of treatment outcome. The mean average PAI value was 8.9 BDI points, and 63% of the sample was predicted to have a clinically meaningful advantage in one of the therapies. Those who were randomized to their predicted optimal treatment (either CT or IPT had an observed mean end-BDI of 11.8, while those who received their predicted non-optimal treatment had an end-BDI of 17.8 (effect size for the difference = 0.51.Depressed patients who were randomized to their predicted optimal treatment fared much better than those randomized to their predicted non-optimal treatment. The PAI provides a great opportunity for formal decision-making to improve individual patient outcomes in depression. Although the utility of the PAI

  18. The Mantle Cell Lymphoma International Prognostic Index (MIPI) is superior to the International Prognostic Index (IPI) in predicting survival following intensive first-line immunochemotherapy and autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Geisler, Christian H; Kolstad, Arne; Laurell, Anna

    2010-01-01

    in MCL treated with more intensive immunochemotherapy has been questioned. Applied here to 158 patients of the Nordic MCL2 trial of first-line intensive immunochemotherapy followed by high-dose chemotherapy and autologous stem cell transplantation, the MIPI and the simplified MIPI (s-MIPI) predicted......Mantle cell lymphoma (MCL) has a heterogeneous clinical course. The recently proposed Mantle Cell Lymphoma International Prognostic Index (MIPI) predicted the survival of MCL better than the International Prognostic Index in MCL patients treated with conventional chemotherapy, but its validity...

  19. Impaired cross-talk between mesolimbic food reward processing and metabolic signaling predicts body mass index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joe J Simon

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The anticipation of the pleasure derived from food intake drives the motivation to eat, and hence facilitate overconsumption of food which ultimately results in obesity. Brain imaging studies provide evidence that mesolimbic brain regions underlie both general as well as food related anticipatory reward processing. In light of this knowledge, the present study examined the neural responsiveness of the ventral striatum in participants with a broad BMI spectrum. The study differentiated between general (i.e. monetary and food related anticipatory reward processing. We recruited a sample of volunteers with greatly varying body weights, ranging from a low BMI (below 20 kg/m² over a normal (20 to 25 kg/m² and overweight (25 to 30 kg/m² BMI, to class I (30 to 35 kg/m² and class II (35 to 40 kg/m² obesity. A total of 24 participants underwent functional magnetic resonance imaging whilst performing both a food and monetary incentive delay task, which allows to measure neural activation during the anticipation of rewards. After the presentation of a cue indicating the amount of food or money to be won, participants had to react correctly in order to earn snack points or money coins which could then be exchanged for real food or money, respectively, at the end of the experiment. During the anticipation of both types of rewards, participants displayed activity in the ventral striatum, a region that plays a pivotal role in the anticipation of rewards. Additionally, we observed that specifically anticipatory food reward processing predicted the individual BMI (current and maximum lifetime. This relation was found to be mediated by impaired hormonal satiety signaling, i.e. increased leptin levels and insulin resistance. These findings suggest that heightened food reward motivation contributes to obesity through impaired metabolic signaling.

  20. Anther-stigma separation is associated with inbreeding depression in Datura stramonium, a predominantly self-fertilizing annual.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stone, Judy L; Motten, Alexander F

    2002-11-01

    Genetically based variation in outcrossing rate generates lineages within populations that differ in their history of inbreeding. According to some models, mating-system modifiers in such populations will demonstrate both linkage and identity disequilibrium with fitness loci, resulting in lineage-specific inbreeding depression. Other models assert that differences among families in levels of inbreeding depression are mainly attributable to random accumulation of genetic load, unrelated to variation at mating-system loci. We measured female reproductive success of selfed and outcrossed progeny from naturally occurring lineages of Datura stramonium, a predominantly self-fertilizing annual weed that has heritable variation in stigma-anther separation, a trait that influences selfing rates. Progeny from inbred lineages (as identified by high degree of anther-stigma overlap) showed equal levels of seed production, regardless of cross type. Progeny from mixed lineages (as identified by relatively high separation between anthers and stigma) showed moderate levels of inbreeding depression. We found a significant correlation between anther-stigma separation and relative fitness of selfed and outcrossed progeny, suggesting that family-level inbreeding depression may be related to differences among lineages in inbreeding history in this population. Negative inbreeding depression in putatively inbred lineages may be due in part to additive effects or to epistatic interactions among loci.

  1. Proteomic characterization of inbreeding-related cold sensitivity in Drosophila melanogaster.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cornelis J Vermeulen

    Full Text Available Inbreeding depression is a widespread phenomenon of central importance to agriculture, medicine, conservation biology and evolutionary biology. Although the population genetic principles of inbreeding depression are well understood, we know little about its functional genomic causes. To provide insight into the molecular interplay between intrinsic stress responses, inbreeding depression and temperature tolerance, we performed a proteomic characterization of a well-defined conditional inbreeding effect in a single line of Drosophila melanogaster, which suffers from extreme cold sensitivity and lethality. We identified 48 differentially expressed proteins in a conditional lethal line as compared to two control lines. These proteins were enriched for proteins involved in hexose metabolism, in particular pyruvate metabolism, and many were found to be associated with lipid particles. These processes can be linked to known cold tolerance mechanisms, such as the production of cryoprotectants, membrane remodeling and the build-up of energy reserves. We checked mRNA-expression of seven genes with large differential protein expression. Although protein expression poorly correlated with gene expression, we found a single gene (CG18067 that, after cold shock, was upregulated in the conditional lethal line both at the mRNA and protein level. Expression of CG18067 also increased in control flies after cold shock, and has previously been linked to cold exposure and chill coma recovery time. Many differentially expressed proteins in our study appear to be involved in cold tolerance in non-inbred individuals. This suggest the conditional inbreeding effect to be caused by misregulation of physiological cold tolerance mechanisms.

  2. Inbreeding avoidance influences the viability of reintroduced populations of African wild dogs (Lycaon pictus.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Penny A Becker

    Full Text Available The conservation of many fragmented and small populations of endangered African wild dogs (Lycaon pictus relies on understanding the natural processes affecting genetic diversity, demographics, and future viability. We used extensive behavioural, life-history, and genetic data from reintroduced African wild dogs in South Africa to (1 test for inbreeding avoidance via mate selection and (2 model the potential consequences of avoidance on population persistence. Results suggested that wild dogs avoided mating with kin. Inbreeding was rare in natal packs, after reproductive vacancies, and between sibling cohorts (observed on 0.8%, 12.5%, and 3.8% of occasions, respectively. Only one of the six (16.7% breeding pairs confirmed as third-order (or closer kin consisted of animals that were familiar with each other, while no other paired individuals had any prior association. Computer-simulated populations allowed to experience inbreeding had only a 1.6% probability of extinction within 100 years, whereas all populations avoiding incestuous matings became extinct due to the absence of unrelated mates. Populations that avoided mating with first-order relatives became extinct after 63 years compared with persistence of 37 and 19 years for those also prevented from second-order and third-order matings, respectively. Although stronger inbreeding avoidance maintains significantly more genetic variation, our results demonstrate the potentially severe demographic impacts of reduced numbers of suitable mates on the future viability of small, isolated wild dog populations. The rapid rate of population decline suggests that extinction may occur before inbreeding depression is observed.

  3. The joint regulation of genetic gain and inbreeding under mate selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klieve, H M; Kinghorn, B P; Barwick, S A

    1994-01-12

    Stochastic simulation was used to evaluate a range of selection strategies with respect to both additive genetic response and inbreeding. Strategies involving selection on BLUP ebvs or individual phenotype, followed by random mating, were compared with mate selection strategies which used portfolio analysis to give joint consideration to genetic merit and inbreeding. An adapted Mean Of Total Absolute Deviations (MOTAD) method was used in a mate selection model to define optimal matings with regard to aggregate genetic merit and inbreeding for a base population h(2) of 0.2. Compared with random mating following selection on BLUP ebvs, inbreeding levels after 10 years of selection were able to be reduced under BLUP plus mate selection from ∼.23 to as little as .11. Additive genetic gain was either little compromised or increased. The results suggest that information linking expected levels of genetic merit and inbreeding can be used to find the preferred selection strategy. ZUSAMMENFASSUNG: Gemeinsame Kontrolle von Zuchtfortschritt und Inzucht bei Partnerselektion Es wurde stochastische Simulation zur Auswertung einer Reihe von Selektionsstrategien hinsichtlich Zuchtwertzuwachs und Inzucht verwendet. Strategien mit Selektion auf der Basis von BLUP ebvs oder individuellem Phänotyp mit nachfolgender Zufallspaarung wurden mit Partnerselektionsstrategien verglichen, die Portfolioanalyse zur gemeinsamen Beachtung von Zuchtwert und Inzucht verwendeten. Eine Methode adaptierter MITTELWERTE TOTALER ABSOLUTER ABWEICHUNGEN (MOTAD) Methode wurde beim Partnerselektionsmodell zur Definition optimaler Paarungen in Hinblick auf Gesamtzuchtwert und Inzucht bei einer Populationsheritabilität von 0,2 verwendet. Verglichen mit Zufallspaarung nach Selektion auf BLUP ebvs waren die Inzuchtgrade nach 10 Selektionsjahren von 0,23 auf 0,11 reduziert und additiver Zuchtfortschritt war dabei wenig beeinträchtigt oder nahm sogar zu. Die Ergebnisse weisen darauf hin, daß Information, die

  4. Genome-wide estimates of coancestry and inbreeding in a closed herd of ancient Iberian pigs.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María Saura

    Full Text Available Maintaining genetic variation and controlling the increase in inbreeding are crucial requirements in animal conservation programs. The most widely accepted strategy for achieving these objectives is to maximize the effective population size by minimizing the global coancestry obtained from a particular pedigree. However, for most natural or captive populations genealogical information is absent. In this situation, microsatellites have been traditionally the markers of choice to characterize genetic variation, and several estimators of genealogical coefficients have been developed using marker data, with unsatisfactory results. The development of high-throughput genotyping techniques states the necessity of reviewing the paradigm that genealogical coancestry is the best parameter for measuring genetic diversity. In this study, the Illumina PorcineSNP60 BeadChip was used to obtain genome-wide estimates of rates of coancestry and inbreeding and effective population size for an ancient strain of Iberian pigs that is now in serious danger of extinction and for which very accurate genealogical information is available (the Guadyerbas strain. Genome-wide estimates were compared with those obtained from microsatellite and from pedigree data. Estimates of coancestry and inbreeding computed from the SNP chip were strongly correlated with genealogical estimates and these correlations were substantially higher than those between microsatellite and genealogical coefficients. Also, molecular coancestry computed from SNP information was a better predictor of genealogical coancestry than coancestry computed from microsatellites. Rates of change in coancestry and inbreeding and effective population size estimated from molecular data were very similar to those estimated from genealogical data. However, estimates of effective population size obtained from changes in coancestry or inbreeding differed. Our results indicate that genome-wide information represents a

  5. Diagnostic accuracy of risk of malignancy index in predicting complete tumor removal at primary debulking surgery for ovarian cancer patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fagö-Olsen, Carsten L; Håkansson, Fanny; Antonsen, Sofie L

    2013-01-01

    to investigate whether the risk of malignancy index (RMI) was a useful marker for this evaluation. RMI and surgical outcome were investigated in 164 patients, 49 of whom had no residual tumor after PDS. The receiver operating characteristic curve showed an area under the curve of 0.72 (confidence interval: 0......Ovarian cancer patients in whom complete tumor removal is impossible with primary debulking surgery (PDS) may benefit from neoadjuvant chemotherapy and interval debulking surgery. However, the task of performing a pre-operative evaluation of the feasibility of PDS is difficult. We aimed.......64-0.80). The possibility of complete tumor removal decreased with increasing RMI and there was a tendency towards higher RMI in patients with residual tumor after PDS, but no single cut-off value of RMI produced useful clinical predictive values. In conclusion, RMI alone is not an optimal method to determine whether...

  6. Proliferation index: a continuous model to predict prognosis in patients with tumours of the Ewing's sarcoma family.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samantha Brownhill

    Full Text Available The prognostic value of proliferation index (PI and apoptotic index (AI, caspase-8, -9 and -10 expression have been investigated in primary Ewing's sarcoma family of tumours (ESFT. Proliferating cells, detected by immunohistochemistry for Ki-67, were identified in 91% (91/100 of tumours with a median PI of 14 (range 0-87. Apoptotic cells, identified using the TUNEL assay, were detected in 96% (76/79 of ESFT; the median AI was 3 (range 0-33. Caspase-8 protein expression was negative (0 in 14% (11/79, low (1 in 33% (26/79, medium (2 in 38% (30/79 and high (3 in 15% (12/79 of tumours, caspase-9 expression was low (1 in 66% (39/59 and high (3 in 34% (20/59, and caspase-10 protein was low (1 in 37% (23/62 and negative (0 in 63% (39/62 of primary ESFT. There was no apparent relationship between caspase-8, -9 and -10 expression, PI and AI. PI was predictive of relapse-free survival (RFS; p = 0.011 and overall survival (OS; p = <0.001 in a continuous model, whereas AI did not predict outcome. Patients with tumours expressing low levels of caspase-9 protein had a trend towards a worse RFS than patients with tumours expressing higher levels of caspase-9 protein (p = 0.054, log rank test, although expression of caspases-8, -9 and/or -10 did not significantly predict RFS or OS. In a multivariate analysis model that included tumour site, tumour volume, the presence of metastatic disease at diagnosis, PI and AI, PI independently predicts OS (p = 0.003. Consistent with previous publications, patients with pelvic tumours had a significantly worse OS than patients with tumours at other sites (p = 0.028; patients with a pelvic tumour and a PI≥20 had a 6 fold-increased risk of death. These studies advocate the evaluation of PI in a risk model of outcome for patients with ESFT.

  7. Prediction of bending set, wave efficacy, and hair damage using an extensional permanent waving treatment and the 20% index value.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ueno, Yuzo; Namiki, Hideo

    2015-01-01

    To predict "wave efficacy" as evaluated by hairdressers, an extensional permanent waving treatment was performed on human hair fibers using various wave lotions manufactured in Japan. Glass columns devised for the purpose were equipped with a tensile tester in order to increase the measurement accuracy. Notably, the observed set agreed with the theoretical set. In addition, the data for the extensional set exhibited good correlation with the bending set and the wave efficacy assessed in a beauty parlor, and hair damage was estimated by the characteristic change in the 20% index. The following facts were experimentally determined. First, the Young's modulus of the hair fibers after extensional permanent waving treatment continually decreased with an increase in the reduction of the fibers and then abruptly decreased at 80% reduction. Second, the reduction of hair treated with the ammonium salt of thioglycolic acid followed pseudo first-order kinetics only during the initial stage of the reaction, independent of the pH level. Third, the 20% index of the individual virgin hairs remained constant in water at 30°C and also correlated with the Young's modulus of the hair after extensional permanent waving treatment.

  8. High pulmonary vascular resistance in addition to low right ventricular stroke work index effectively predicts biventricular assist device requirement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Imamura, Teruhiko; Kinugawa, Koichiro; Kinoshita, Osamu; Nawata, Kan; Ono, Minoru

    2016-03-01

    Although the right ventricular stroke work index (RVSWI) is a good index for RV function, a low RVSWI is not necessarily an indicator for the need for a right ventricular assist device at the time of left VAD implantation. We here aimed to determine a more precise indicator for the need for a biventricular assist device (BiVAD). In total, 116 patients (mean age, 38 ± 14 years), who underwent hemodynamic assessments preoperatively including 12 BiVAD patients, and had been followed at our institute from 2003 to 2015, were included. Multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that RVSWI and pulmonary vascular resistance (PVR) were independent predictors of BiVAD requirement (P 5 g/m, PVR 5, PVR > 3.7), (3) RV failure (RVSWI 3.7), and examined. Most of the patients in Group 4 (75 %), with acutely depressed hemodynamics and inflammatory responses in the myocardium, required BiVAD. Overall, patients with BiVAD had a worse survival rate as compared with those with LVAD alone. In conclusion, high PVR in addition to low RVSWI effectively predicts BiVAD requirement.

  9. Physical modelling of globe and natural wet bulb temperatures to predict WBGT heat stress index in outdoor environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaspar, Adélio R; Quintela, Divo A

    2009-05-01

    The present paper describes a physical model that estimates the globe and the natural wet bulb temperatures from the main parameters generally recorded at meteorological weather stations, in order to predict the wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) heat stress index for outdoor environments. The model is supported by a thermal analysis of the globe and the natural wet bulb temperature sensors. The results of simultaneous measurements of the WBGT and climatological parameters (solar radiation, wind velocity, humidity, etc.) are presented and used to validate the model. The final comparison between calculated and measured values shows a good agreement with the experimental data, with a maximum absolute deviation of 2.8% for the globe temperature and 2.6% for the natural wet bulb temperature and the WBGT index. The model is applied to the design reference year for Coimbra, Portugal, in order to illustrate its preventative capabilities from a practical point of view. The results clearly show that during the summer there is a critical daily period (1200-1600 hours, local standard time) during which people working outdoors should not be allowed to perform their normal activities.

  10. Development of an oncological-multidimensional prognostic index (Onco-MPI) for mortality prediction in older cancer patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brunello, Antonella; Fontana, Andrea; Zafferri, Valeria; Panza, Francesco; Fiduccia, Pasquale; Basso, Umberto; Copetti, Massimiliano; Lonardi, Sara; Roma, Anna; Falci, Cristina; Monfardini, Silvio; Cella, Alberto; Pilotto, Alberto; Zagonel, Vittorina

    2016-05-01

    A multidimensional prognostic index (MPI) based on a comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) has been developed and validated in independent cohorts of older patients demonstrating good accuracy in predicting one-year mortality. The aim of this study was to develop a cancer-specific modified MPI (Onco-MPI) for mortality prediction in older cancer patients. We enrolled 658 new cancer subjects ≥70 years (mean age 77.1 years, 433 females, 65.8 %) attending oncological outpatient services from September 2004 to June 2011. The Onco-MPI was calculated according to a validated algorithm as a weighted linear combination of the following CGA domains: age, sex, basal and instrumental activities of daily living, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, mini-mental state examination, body mass index, Cumulative Illness Rating Scale, number of drugs and the presence of caregiver. Cancer sites (breast 46.5 %, colorectal 21.3 %, lung 6.4 %, prostate 5.5 %, urinary tract 5.0 %, other 15.3 %) and cancer stages (I 37 %, II 22 %, III 19 %, IV 22 %) were also included in the model. All-cause mortality was recorded. Three grades of severity of the Onco-MPI score (low risk: 0.0-0.46, medium risk: 0.47-0.63, high risk: 0.64-1.0) were calculated using RECPAM method. Discriminatory power and calibration were assessed by estimating survival C-indices, along with 95 % confidence interval (CI) and the survival-based Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) measures. One-year mortality incidence rate was 17.4 %. A significant difference in mortality rates was observed in Onco-MPI low risk compared to medium- and high-risk patients (2.1 vs. 17.7 vs. 80.8 %, p patients that can be useful for clinical decision making in this age group.

  11. Pharmacokinetics, efficacy prediction indexes, and residue depletion of ribavirin in Atlantic salmon's (Salmo salar) muscle after oral administration in feed.

    Science.gov (United States)

    San Martín, B; Muñoz, R; Cornejo, J; Martínez, M A; Araya-Jordán, C; Maddaleno, A; Anadón, A

    2016-08-01

    Ribavirin is an antiviral used in human medicine, but it has not been authorized for use in veterinary medicine although it is effective against infectious salmon anemia (ISA) virus, between others. In this study, we present a pharmacokinetic profile of ribavirin in Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar), efficacy prediction indexes, and the measure of its withdrawal time. To determine the pharmacokinetic profile, fishes were orally administered with a single ribavirin dose of 1.6 mg/kg bw, and then, plasma concentrations were measured at different times. From the time-vs.-concentration curve, Cmax = 413.57 ng/mL, Tmax  = 6.96 h, AUC = 21394.01 μg·h/mL, t1/2  = 81.61 h, and K10  = 0.0421/h were obtained. Ribavirin reached adequate concentrations during the pharmacokinetic study, with prediction indexes of Cmax /IC50  = 20.7, AUC/IC50  = 1069.7, and T>IC50  = 71 h, where IC is the inhibitory concentration 50%. For ribavirin depletion study, fishes were orally administered with a dairy dose of 1.6 mg/kg bw during 10 days. Concentrations were measured on edible tissue on different days post-treatment. A linear regression of the time vs. concentration was conducted, obtaining a withdrawal time of 1966 °C days. Results obtained reveal that the dose of 1.6 mg/kg bw orally administered is effective for ISA virus, originating a reasonable withdrawal period within the productive schedules of Atlantic salmon. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. Inbreeding effects on the growth in stature among Telaga boys and girls of Kharagpur, West Bengal, India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Bidhan Kanti; Mukherjee, D P

    2007-03-01

    The present study is an attempt to understand the genetical effects of inbreeding on the process of growth. The inbred and non-inbred subjects were selected on the basis of extensive pedigrees of five generations in the Telaga, an endogamous population of Kharagpur, India. Preference was given to cousins belonging to the same kindreds while selecting control sample so that environmental variation was minimized. Altogether 633 boys and 614 girls of different inbreeding levels aged five to twenty years were measured for stature. Analysis has been done in different levels of inbreeding in each age and sex on mean annual increments and variances of increments. The results revealed that comparison of annual increment for each age between boys and girls with different degrees of inbreeding and application of the one-tailed t-test of significance does not provide any evidence of inbreeding effect on mean increment for stature studied in either sex. This might indicate the absence of marked dominant/recessive effects of genes determining annual increments in body size rather than the absence of genetical control of increments due to growth. Moreover, it is noteworthy that the variance of annual increment due to growth (which is estimated indirectly) consistently increases with increase of inbreeding level with only a few exceptions. The exceptions occur more often in girls than in boys, which can be explained by greater environmental stress and selection pressure and variation in X-linked inbreeding among girls. This would be worthwhile to verify in longitudinal growth data in future. Increased variances of annual increment with inbreeding, in the absence of change of mean increment on inbreeding, would indicate the influence of additive autosomal genes for the process of physical growth in children in either sex. A close scrutiny of the annual increments for the measurements in all the four levels of inbreeding in either sex fails to bring out any consistent trend of

  13. The Predictive Power of Electronic Polarizability for Tailoring the Refractivity of High Index Glasses Optical Basicity Versus the Single Oscillator Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McCloy, John S.; Riley, Brian J.; Johnson, Bradley R.; Schweiger, Michael J.; Qiao, Hong (Amy); Carlie, Nathan

    2010-06-01

    Four compositions of high density (~8 g/cm3) heavy metal oxide glasses composed of PbO, Bi2O3, and Ga2O3 were produced and refractivity parameters (refractive index and density) were computed and measured. Optical basicity was computed using three different models – average electronegativity, ionic-covalent parameter, and energy gap – and the basicity results were used to compute oxygen polarizability and subsequently refractive index. Refractive indices were measured in the visible and infrared at 0.633 μm, 1.55 μm, 3.39 μm, 5.35 μm, 9.29 μm, and 10.59 μm using a unique prism coupler setup, and data were fitted to the Sellmeier expression to obtain an equation of the dispersion of refractive index with wavelength. Using this dispersion relation, single oscillator energy, dispersion energy, and lattice energy were determined. Oscillator parameters were also calculated for the various glasses from their oxide values as an additional means of predicting index. Calculated dispersion parameters from oxides underestimate the index by 3 to 4%. Predicted glass index from optical basicity, based on component oxide energy gaps, underpredicts the index at 0.633 μm by only 2%, while other basicity scales are less accurate. The predicted energy gap of the glasses based on this optical basicity overpredicts the Tauc optical gap as determined by transmission measurements by 6 to 10%. These results show that for this system, density, refractive index in the visible, and energy gap can be reasonably predicted using only composition, optical basicity values for the constituent oxides, and partial molar volume coefficients. Calculations such as these are useful for a priori prediction of optical properties of glasses.

  14. Fecal Calprotectin is an Accurate Tool and Correlated to Seo Index in Prediction of Relapse in Iranian Patients With Ulcerative Colitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hosseini, Seyed Vahid; Jafari, Peyman; Taghavi, Seyed Alireza; Safarpour, Ali Reza; Rezaianzadeh, Abbas; Moini, Maryam; Mehrabi, Manoosh

    2015-02-01

    The natural clinical course of Ulcerative Colitis (UC) is characterized by episodes of relapse and remission. Fecal Calprotectin (FC) is a relatively new marker of intestinal inflammation and is an available, non-expensive tool for predicting relapse of quiescent UC. The Seo colitis activity index is a clinical index for assessment of the severity of UC. The present study aimed to evaluate the accuracy of FC and the Seo colitis activity index and their correlation in prediction of UC exacerbation. In this prospective cohort study, 157 patients with clinical and endoscopic diagnosis of UC selected randomly from 1273 registered patients in Fars province's IBD registry center in Shiraz, Iran, were followed from October 2012 to October 2013 for 12 months or shorter, if they had a relapse. Two patients left the study before completion and one patient had relapse because of discontinuation of drugs. The participants' clinical and serum factors were evaluated every three months. Furthermore, stool samples were collected at the beginning of study and every three months and FC concentration (commercially available enzyme linked immunoassay) and the Seo Index were assessed. Then univariate analysis, multiple variable logistic regression, Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curve analysis, and Pearson's correlation test (r) were used for statistical analysis of data. According to the results, 74 patients (48.1%) relapsed during the follow-up (33 men and 41 women). Mean ± SD of FC was 862.82 ± 655.97 μg/g and 163.19 ± 215.85 μg/g in relapsing and non-relapsing patients, respectively (P Seo index were significant predictors of relapse. ROC curve analysis of FC level and Seo activity index for prediction of relapse demonstrated area under the curve of 0.882 (P Seo index was significant in prediction of relapse (r = 0.63, P Seo activity index in prediction of relapse in the course of quiescent UC in Iranian patients.

  15. An ECG Index of P-Wave Force Predicts the Recurrence of Atrial Fibrillation after Pulmonary Vein Isolation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanzaki, Yasunori; Inden, Yasuya; Ando, Monami; Kamikubo, Yosuke; Ito, Tadahiro; Mizutani, Yoshiaki; Kato, Hiroyuki; Fujii, Aya; Yanagisawa, Satoshi; Hirai, Makoto; Murohara, Toyoaki

    2016-11-01

    Although several prognostic factors of atrial fibrillation (AF) recurrence after pulmonary vein isolation (PVI) have been investigated, the accurate prediction of AF recurrence remains difficult. We propose an electrocardiogram (ECG) index, the P-wave force (PWF), which is the product of the amplitude of the negative terminal phase of the P wave in the V1 electrode and the filtered P-wave duration, obtained by a signal-averaged P-wave analysis. This study was conducted to evaluate the impact of the PWF on the recurrence of AF after PVI. We retrospectively evaluated 79 paroxysmal AF patients (64 ± 9 years, 56 males) who underwent PVI by cryoballoon ablation. Standard 12-lead ECG and a P-wave signal-averaged electrocardiogram (SAECG) were recorded the day before and 1 month after the PVI procedure. During the mean follow-up of 10.2 months, AF recurred in 11 (14%) patients. The PWF 1 month after ablation was significantly higher in the recurrence group compared to that in the nonrecurrence group (8.8 ± 3.1 mVms vs 6.5 ± 2.9 mVms, P = 0.017). The patients with a PWF value ≥9.3 mVms had a significantly greater risk of recurrence after the ablation compared to the patients with a PWF value predict the recurrence of AF. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  16. Tritiated-water heat-tolerance index to predict the growth rate in calves in hot deserts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kamal, T.H.

    1982-01-01

    It was the intention of this study to develop a heat-tolerance index that predicts at an early age the growth rate of calves in a hot desert area (Inshas). Twelve female Friesian calves aged 13-15 months were maintained in climatic chambers for 2 weeks at a mild climate (control), followed by 2 weeks at a hot climate (experimental). Determinations of body water content, body solids, body weight and final rectal temperature were undertaken during the second week of the control and experimental periods. Afterwards the animals were transferred to the farm and maintained outdoors; they were weighed at the end of the 4 summer months. Body water content and rectal temperature were 9.47 and 2.42%, respectively, higher in the hot climate than in the control at P 1 ) or body solids content (X 2 ) that had occurred previously during the 2-weeks heat stress in the climatic chamber by using the equation Y = 39.44 - 1.65X 1 or Y = 45.02 - 1.27X 2 . The standard errors of the regression coefficients for the two equations were 0.094 and 0.132, respectively. The standard errors of the predicted Y for the two equations were 0.207 and 0.218, respectively

  17. Can tissue oxygenation index (TOI) and cotside neurophysiological variables predict outcome in depressed/asphyxiated newborn infants?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaramella, Patrizia; Saraceni, Elisabetta; Freato, Federica; Falcon, Elena; Suppiej, Agnese; Milan, Anna; Laverda, Anna Maria; Chiandetti, Lino

    2007-08-01

    Diagnostic tools of birth asphyxia provide only an uncertain prediction of neurological outcome. To assess whether TOI and DeltaCBV, combined with a set of biochemical and neurophysiological variables, have any diagnostic and prognostic value in birth depression or asphyxia. Case control study at the nursery and NICU of the Padova University Children's Hospital. 22 term neonates with an Apgar score or = 36 weeks; 15 healthy term infants with an Apgar score > or = 9 at 5'. Troponin I and NIRS measurements (TOI and DeltaCBV) were assessed in both groups. Blood gases, neurological evaluation, US, NIRS, EEG and SEP were evaluated in the infants with depression or asphyxia. Troponin I was higher in the study group than in controls (p=0.04), showing a correlation with base excess values. In the depressed/asphyxiated neonates with an abnormal outcome at 1 year, TOI rose to 80.1% vs 66.4% in controls (p=0.04) and 74.7% in infants with a normal 1-year outcome. A multiple regression model showed a significant multiple correlation coefficient, R=0.79, p<0.001, where the predictive variables significantly associated with outcome were SEP and BE. Troponin I is a useful short-term index of birth asphyxia or perinatal depression. An increased TOI suggests a risk of abnormal neurological outcome at 1 year. Among the cotside variables, BE and evoked potential abnormalities were the best predictors of abnormal outcome in this study.

  18. Aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index for fibrosis and cirrhosis prediction in chronic hepatitis C patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberto Gomes da Silva Junior

    Full Text Available In chronic hepatitis C (CHC, liver biopsy is the gold standard method for assessing liver histology, however it is invasive and can have complications. Non-invasive markers have been proposed and aspartate aminotransferase (AST-to-platelet ratio index (APRI has been shown as an easy and inexpensive marker of liver fibrosis. This study evaluated the diagnostic performance of APRI for significant fibrosis and cirrhosis prediction in CHC patients. This study included treatment-naive CHC patients who had undergone liver biopsy from January 2000 to August 2006. All histological slides were reviewed according to the METAVIR system. APRI was calculated based on laboratory results performed within four months from the biopsy. Twenty-eight (56% patients had significant fibrosis (F2-F4 and 13 (26% had cirrhosis (F4. The area under ROC curves of APRI for predicting significant fibrosis and cirrhosis were 0.92 (0.83-1.00 and 0.92 (0.85-1.00, respectively. Using cut-off values recommended by prior studies, significant fibrosis could be identified, in accordance with liver biopsy, in 44% and cirrhosis in 66% of patients. APRI could identify significant fibrosis and cirrhosis at a high degree of accuracy in studied patients.

  19. Can an index of smokers' emotional status predict the chances of success in attempts to quit smoking?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baddini-Martinez, José; de Padua, Adriana Ignácio

    2013-06-01

    Smoking cessation still is a great challenge for smokers and health care professionals. Most subjects try cigarettes in adolescence under predominant environmental influences, and some psychological features are clearly associated with the establishment of continuous cigarette use. As a result, it is acceptable to assume that the risk of becoming regular smokers should be higher for subjects exhibiting imperfect psychological well-being. Since nicotine exhibits recognized psychopharmacological actions, an important reason for smoking would be the comfort of smokers' emotional afflictions. In this scenario, cigarettes might be seen as effective coping instruments for smokers. We hypothesize that a simple measure covering major emotional features of smokers might become a useful instrument for predicting the chances of success in attempts to quit smoking. The development of this new test aimed to measure the degree of smokers' emotional imbalance has the potential to predict the chances of success in response to standard therapy, as well as the need for introduction of intensive individualized psychological or psychiatric interventions. Preliminary analyses of a new test called Smokers' Emotional Index (SEI) support such a hypothesis. The SEI scores showed significant correlations with the values of the Fagerström test of nicotine dependence (FTND) for adult smokers. More numerous and better correlation coefficients were also observed between aspects of smoking history with SEI punctuations than with FTND scores. A clinical trial is proposed to test this hypothesis that could help to improve the results of current approaches to smoking cessation. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Developing Models to Predict the Number of Fire Hotspots from an Accumulated Fuel Dryness Index by Vegetation Type and Region in Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. J. Vega-Nieva

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the linkage between accumulated fuel dryness and temporal fire occurrence risk is key for improving decision-making in forest fire management, especially under growing conditions of vegetation stress associated with climate change. This study addresses the development of models to predict the number of 10-day observed Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS active fire hotspots—expressed as a Fire Hotspot Density index (FHD—from an Accumulated Fuel Dryness Index (AcFDI, for 17 main vegetation types and regions in Mexico, for the period 2011–2015. The AcFDI was calculated by applying vegetation-specific thresholds for fire occurrence to a satellite-based fuel dryness index (FDI, which was developed after the structure of the Fire Potential Index (FPI. Linear and non-linear models were tested for the prediction of FHD from FDI and AcFDI. Non-linear quantile regression models gave the best results for predicting FHD using AcFDI, together with auto-regression from previously observed hotspot density values. The predictions of 10-day observed FHD values were reasonably good with R2 values of 0.5 to 0.7 suggesting the potential to be used as an operational tool for predicting the expected number of fire hotspots by vegetation type and region in Mexico. The presented modeling strategy could be replicated for any fire danger index in any region, based on information from MODIS or other remote sensors.

  1. KPG Index versus OPG Measurements: A Comparison between 3D and 2D Methods in Predicting Treatment Duration and Difficulty Level for Patients with Impacted Maxillary Canines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Domenico Dalessandri

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Aim. The aim of this study was to test the agreement between orthopantomography (OPG based 2D measurements and the KPG index, a new index based on 3D Cone Beam Computed Tomography (CBCT images, in predicting orthodontic treatment duration and difficulty level of impacted maxillary canines. Materials and Methods. OPG and CBCT images of 105 impacted canines were independently scored by three orthodontists at t0 and after 1 month (t1, using the KPG index and the following 2D methods: distance from cusp tip and occlusal plane, cusp tip position in relation to the lateral incisor, and canine inclination. Pearson’s coefficients were used to evaluate the degree of agreement and the χ2 with Yates correction test was used to assess the independence between them. Results. Inter- and intrarater reliability were higher with KPG compared to 2D methods. Pearson’s coefficients showed a statistically significant association between all the indexes, while the χ2 with Yates correction test resulted in a statistically significant rejection of independency only for one 2D index. Conclusions. 2D indexes for predicting impacted maxillary canines treatment duration and difficulty sometimes are discordant; a 3D index like the KPG index could be useful in solving these conflicts.

  2. Predictive Validity of the Body Adiposity Index in Overweight and Obese Adults Using Dual-Energy X-ray Absorptiometry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robinson Ramírez-Vélez

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The body adiposity index (BAI is a recent anthropometric measure proven to be valid in predicting body fat percentage (BF% in some populations. However, the results have been inconsistent across populations. This study was designed to verify the validity of BAI in predicting BF% in a sample of overweight/obese adults, using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DEXA as the reference method. A cross-sectional study was conducted in 48 participants (54% women, mean age 41.0 ± 7.3 years old. DEXA was used as the “gold standard” to determine BF%. Pearson’s correlation coefficient was used to evaluate the association between BAI and BF%, as assessed by DEXA. A paired sample t-test was used to test differences in mean BF% obtained with BAI and DEXA methods. To evaluate the concordance between BF% as measured by DEXA and as estimated by BAI, we used Lin’s concordance correlation coefficient and Bland–Altman agreement analysis. The correlation between BF% obtained by DEXA and that estimated by BAI was r = 0.844, p < 0.001. Paired t-test showed a significant mean difference in BF% between methods (BAI = 33.3 ± 6.2 vs. DEXA 39.0 ± 6.1; p < 0.001. The bias of the BAI was −6.0 ± 3.0 BF% (95% CI = −12.0 to 1.0, indicating that the BAI method significantly underestimated the BF% compared to the reference method. Lin’s concordance correlation coefficient was considered stronger (ρc = 0.923, 95% CI = 0.862 to 0.957. In obese adults, BAI presented low agreement with BF% measured by DEXA; therefore, BAI is not recommended for BF% prediction in this overweight/obese sample studied.

  3. Performance of body mass index in predicting diabetes and hypertension in the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almajwal, Ali M; Al-Baghli, Nadira A; Batterham, Marijka J; Williams, Peter G; Al-Turki, Khalid A; Al-Ghamdi, Aqeel J

    2009-01-01

    Body mass index (BMI) is the most widely used measure to define obesity and predict its complications, such as diabetes and hypertension, but its accuracy and usefulness in Saudi subjects is unknown. This study aimed to assess the validity of standard BMI cut-point values in the Saudi population. 197 681 adults participated in a cross-sectional study to detect diabetes and hypertension in the Saudi Eastern province in 2004/2005, with blood pressure, fasting blood sugar, height and weight measurements taken. Sensitivities, specificities, areas under the curves, predictive values, likelihood ratios, false positive, false negatives and total misclassification ratios were calculated for various BMI values determined from receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. The significance of the association between risk factors and BMI was assessed using regression analysis. For the definition of overweight, ROC curve analysis suggested optimal BMI cut-offs of 28.50 to 29.50 in men and 30.50 to 31.50 in women, but the levels of sensitivity and specificity were too low to be of clinical value and the overall misclassification was unacceptably high across all the selected BMI values (>0.80). The relationship between BMI and the presence of diabetes and/or hypertension was not improved when a BMI of 25 was used. Using regression analyses, the odds ratios for hypertension and/or diabetes increased significantly from BMI values as low as 21-23 with no improvement in the diagnostic performance of BMI at these cutoffs. In Saudi population, there is an increased risk of diabetes and hypertension relative to BMI, starting at a BMI as low as 21 but overall there is no cutoff BMI level with high predictive value for the development of these chronic diseases, including the WHO definition of obesity at BMI of 30.

  4. Predictive Validity of the Body Adiposity Index in Overweight and Obese Adults Using Dual-Energy X-ray Absorptiometry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramírez-Vélez, Robinson; Correa-Bautista, Jorge Enrique; González-Ruíz, Katherine; Vivas, Andrés; García-Hermoso, Antonio; Triana-Reina, Hector Reynaldo

    2016-01-01

    The body adiposity index (BAI) is a recent anthropometric measure proven to be valid in predicting body fat percentage (BF%) in some populations. However, the results have been inconsistent across populations. This study was designed to verify the validity of BAI in predicting BF% in a sample of overweight/obese adults, using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DEXA) as the reference method. A cross-sectional study was conducted in 48 participants (54% women, mean age 41.0 ± 7.3 years old). DEXA was used as the “gold standard” to determine BF%. Pearson’s correlation coefficient was used to evaluate the association between BAI and BF%, as assessed by DEXA. A paired sample t-test was used to test differences in mean BF% obtained with BAI and DEXA methods. To evaluate the concordance between BF% as measured by DEXA and as estimated by BAI, we used Lin’s concordance correlation coefficient and Bland–Altman agreement analysis. The correlation between BF% obtained by DEXA and that estimated by BAI was r = 0.844, p < 0.001. Paired t-test showed a significant mean difference in BF% between methods (BAI = 33.3 ± 6.2 vs. DEXA 39.0 ± 6.1; p < 0.001). The bias of the BAI was −6.0 ± 3.0 BF% (95% CI = −12.0 to 1.0), indicating that the BAI method significantly underestimated the BF% compared to the reference method. Lin’s concordance correlation coefficient was considered stronger (ρc = 0.923, 95% CI = 0.862 to 0.957). In obese adults, BAI presented low agreement with BF% measured by DEXA; therefore, BAI is not recommended for BF% prediction in this overweight/obese sample studied. PMID:27916871

  5. Toronto HCC risk index: A validated scoring system to predict 10-year risk of HCC in patients with cirrhosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Suraj A; Kowgier, Matthew; Hansen, Bettina E; Brouwer, Willem Pieter; Maan, Raoel; Wong, David; Shah, Hemant; Khalili, Korosh; Yim, Colina; Heathcote, E Jenny; Janssen, Harry L A; Sherman, Morris; Hirschfield, Gideon M; Feld, Jordan J

    2017-08-24

    Current guidelines recommend biannual surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in all patients with cirrhosis, regardless of etiology. However, HCC incidence is not well established for many causes of cirrhosis. We aimed to assess the disease-specific incidence of HCC in a large cohort of patients with cirrhosis and to develop a scoring system to predict HCC risk. A derivation cohort of patients with cirrhosis diagnosed by biopsy or non-invasive measures was identified through retrospective chart review. The disease-specific incidence of HCC was calculated according to etiology of cirrhosis. Factors associated with HCC were identified through multivariable Cox regression and used to develop a scoring system to predict HCC risk. The scoring system was evaluated in an external cohort for validation. Of 2,079 patients with cirrhosis and ≥6months follow-up, 226 (10.8%) developed HCC. The 10-year cumulative incidence of HCC varied by etiologic category from 22% in patients with viral hepatitis, to 16% in those with steatohepatitis and 5% in those with autoimmune liver disease (pHCC. Points were assigned in proportion to each hazard ratio to create the Toronto HCC Risk Index (THRI). The 10-year cumulative HCC incidence was 3%, 10% and 32% in the low-risk (240) groups respectively, values that remained consistent after internal validation. External validation was performed on a cohort of patients with primary biliary cirrhosis, hepatitis B viral and hepatitis C viral cirrhosis (n=1,144), with similar predictive ability (Harrell's c statistic 0.77) in the validation and derivation cohorts. HCC incidence varies markedly by etiology of cirrhosis. The THRI, using readily available clinical and laboratory parameters, has good predictive ability for HCC in patients with cirrhosis, and has been validated in an external cohort. This risk score may help to guide recommendations regarding HCC surveillance among patients with cirrhosis. HCC incidence varies markedly

  6. The Thal-index with the BTT prediction.exe to discriminate β-thalassaemia traits from other microcytic anaemias

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahangama Arachchige Nilanga Nishad

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Several attempts have been made previously to differentiate β-thalassaemia trait (BTT from other microcytic anaemias using formulae with red cell (RC parameters. Presently available formulae have low sensitivity and specificity. We wanted to develop a more precise algorithm, which could be used in situations where the gold-standard test for thalassaemia diagnosis: the high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC is not available. The study was carried out prospectively from November 2008 to March 2010 from randomly collected blood samples with a mean cell volume (MCV of less than 80 fL. HbA2 measured by HPLC was used to diagnose BTT. We used Fishers stepwise linear discriminant function analysis to develop an algorithm with RC parameters. Calculated new index Thal-index was then subjected to receiver operating characteristic curve analysis to identify best cutoff to discriminate BTT from other microcytic blood films. Software was developed to predict the BTT status (BTT prediction.exe. New index, referred to as the Thal-index, was calculated using discriminant function analysis and is given as Thal-index=[(0.615xMCV +(0.518xmean corpuscular hemoglobin+ (0.446xred cell distribution width]. A value of 59 for Thal-index has 90% sensitivity and 85% specificity for differentiating BTT from other microcytic anaemias. This showed better sensitivity and specificity compared to other formulae presently used (i.e., Mentzer in Eshani, et al.. Our study gives a better answer to set-up where HPLC is not available. Although this cannot replace HPLC, BTT prediction.exe is useful to predict instantly and is the first ever computer program available for this function. 先前已利用含红细胞(RC)参数的公式做出若干尝试,以鉴别β-地中海贫血(BTT)和其他小红细胞性贫血。目前可用公式的敏感度和特异度均低。我们想要开发更精确的算法,在地中海贫血诊断的金标准测试法(即高效液相色

  7. A major QTL affects temperature sensitive adult lethality and inbreeding depression in life span in Drosophila melanogaster.

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vermeulen, Corneel J.; Bijlsma, R.; Loeschcke, Volker

    2008-01-01

    of inbreeding effects in specific traits, such as age-specific mortality and life span, provide a good starting point, as a limited set of genes is expected to be involved. Results Here we report on a QTL mapping study on inbreeding related and temperature sensitive lethality in male Drosophila melanogaster...... and the molecular properties of genes that give rise to or modulate its deleterious effects is lacking. These questions warrant the detailed study of genetic loci giving rise to inbreeding depression. However, the complex and polygenic nature of general inbreeding depression makes this a daunting task. Study...... simple, being due mainly to a single recessive QTL on the left arm of chromosome 2. This locus colocalised with a QTL that conditioned variation in female life span, acting as an overdominant locus for this trait. Male life span was additionally affected by variation at the X-chromosome. Conclusion...

  8. Thumb Ossification Composite Index (TOCI) for Predicting Peripubertal Skeletal Maturity and Peak Height Velocity in Idiopathic Scoliosis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hung, Alec L.H.; Chau, W.W.; Shi, B.; Chow, Simon K.; Yu, Fiona Y.P.; Lam, T.P.; Ng, Bobby K.W.; Qiu, Y.; Cheng, Jack C.Y.

    2017-01-01

    Background: Accurate skeletal maturity assessment is important to guide clinical evaluation of idiopathic scoliosis, but commonly used methods are inadequate or too complex for rapid clinical use. The objective of the study was to propose a new simplified staging method, called the thumb ossification composite index (TOCI), based on the ossification pattern of the 2 thumb epiphyses and the adductor sesamoid bone; to determine its accuracy in predicting skeletal maturation when compared with the Sanders simplified skeletal maturity system (SSMS); and to validate its interrater and intrarater reliability. Methods: Hand radiographs of 125 girls, acquired when they were newly diagnosed with idiopathic scoliosis prior to menarche and during longitudinal follow-up until skeletal maturity (a minimum of 4 years), were scored with the TOCI and SSMS. These scores were compared with digital skeletal age (DSA) and radius, ulna, and small hand bones (RUS) scores; anthropometric data; peak height velocity; and growth-remaining profiles. Correlations were analyzed with the chi-square test, Spearman and Cramer V correlation methods, and receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Reliability analysis using the intraclass correlation (ICC) was conducted. Results: Six hundred and forty-five hand radiographs (average, 5 of each girl) were scored. The TOCI staging system was highly correlated with the DSA and RUS scores (r = 0.93 and 0.92, p 0.97. Conclusions: The new proposed TOCI could provide a simplified staging system for the assessment of skeletal maturity of subjects with idiopathic scoliosis. The index needs to be subjected to further multicenter validation in different ethnic groups. PMID:28872525

  9. Right Heart End-Systolic Remodeling Index Strongly Predicts Outcomes in Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension: Comparison With Validated Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amsallem, Myriam; Sweatt, Andrew J; Aymami, Marie C; Kuznetsova, Tatiana; Selej, Mona; Lu, HongQuan; Mercier, Olaf; Fadel, Elie; Schnittger, Ingela; McConnell, Michael V; Rabinovitch, Marlene; Zamanian, Roham T; Haddad, Francois

    2017-06-01

    Right ventricular (RV) end-systolic dimensions provide information on both size and function. We investigated whether an internally scaled index of end-systolic dimension is incremental to well-validated prognostic scores in pulmonary arterial hypertension. From 2005 to 2014, 228 patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension were prospectively enrolled. RV end-systolic remodeling index (RVESRI) was defined by lateral length divided by septal height. The incremental values of RV free wall longitudinal strain and RVESRI to risk scores were determined. Mean age was 49±14 years, 78% were female, 33% had connective tissue disease, 52% were in New York Heart Association class ≥III, and mean pulmonary vascular resistance was 11.2±6.4 WU. RVESRI and right atrial area were strongly connected to the other right heart metrics. Three zones of adaptation (adapted, maladapted, and severely maladapted) were identified based on the RVESRI to RV systolic pressure relationship. During a mean follow-up of 3.9±2.4 years, the primary end point of death, transplant, or admission for heart failure was reached in 88 patients. RVESRI was incremental to risk prediction scores in pulmonary arterial hypertension, including the Registry to Evaluate Early and Long-Term PAH Disease Management score, the Pulmonary Hypertension Connection equation, and the Mayo Clinic model. Using multivariable analysis, New York Heart Association class III/IV, RVESRI, and log NT-proBNP (N-Terminal Pro-B-Type Natriuretic Peptide) were retained (χ 2 , 62.2; P right heart metrics, RVESRI demonstrated the best test-retest characteristics. RVESRI is a simple reproducible prognostic marker in patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

  10. Work Ability Index predicts application for disability pension after work-related medical rehabilitation for chronic back pain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bethge, Matthias; Gutenbrunner, Christoph; Neuderth, Silke

    2013-11-01

    To determine whether the Work Ability Index (WAI), a short 7-item self-report questionnaire addressing issues of perceived disability, impairment, and expectations for resuming work, predicts application for disability pension, recommendations for further treatment, and other adverse work-related criteria in patients with chronic back pain after rehabilitation. Cohort study with 3-month follow-up. Seven inpatient rehabilitation centers. Patients (N=294; 168 women; mean age, 49.9y) with chronic back pain. The WAI was completed at the beginning of rehabilitation. All patients were treated according to the German rehabilitation guidelines for chronic back pain and work-related medical rehabilitation. Application for disability pension, as assessed by a postal questionnaire 3 months after discharge. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis of the association between the WAI at baseline and subsequent application for disability pension revealed an area under the curve of .80 (95% confidence interval [CI], .62-.97). Youden index was highest when the WAI cutoff value was ≤20 points (sensitivity, 72.7%; specificity, 82.2%; total correct classification, 81.7%). After adjusting for age and sex, persons with a baseline WAI score of ≤20 points had 15.6 times (95% CI, 3.6-68.2) higher odds of subsequent application for disability pension, 4.9 times (95% CI, 1.5-16.8) higher odds of unemployment, and 6 times (95% CI, 2.4-15.2) higher odds of long-term sick leave at follow-up. The WAI could help rehabilitation professionals identify patients with back pain with a high risk of a subsequent application for disability pension. Copyright © 2013 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Remote detection of water stress conditions via a diurnal photochemical reflectance index (PRI) improves yield prediction in rainfed wheat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magney, T. S.; Vierling, L. A.; Eitel, J.

    2014-12-01

    Employing remotely sensed techniques to quantify the existence and magnitude of midday photosynthetic downregulation using the photochemical reflectance index (PRI) may reveal new information about plant responses to abiotic stressors in space and time. However, the interpretation and application of the PRI can be confounded because of its sensitivity to several variables changing at the diurnal (e.g., irradiation, shadow fraction) and seasonal (e.g., leaf area, chlorophyll and carotene pigment concentrations, irradiation) time scales. We explored different techniques to correct the PRI for variations in canopy structure and relative chlorophyll content (ChlR) using highly temporally resolved (frequency = five minutes) in-situ radiometric measurements of PRI and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) over eight soft white spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L.)field plots under varying nitrogen and soil water conditions over two seasons. Our results suggest that the influence of seasonal variation in canopy ChlR and LAI on the diurnally measured PRI (PRIdiurnal) can be minimized using simple correction techniques, therefore improving the strength of PRI as a tool to quantify abiotic stressors such as daily changes in soil volumetric water content (SVWC), and vapor pressure deficit (VPD). PRIdiurnal responded strongly to available nitrogen, and linearly tracked seasonal changes in SVWC, VPD, and stomatal conductance (gc). Utilizing the PRI as an indicator of stress, yield predictions significantly over greenness indices such as the NDVI. This study provides insight towards the future interpretation and scaling of PRI to quantify rapid changes in photosynthesis, and as an indicator of plant stress.

  12. Maintenance of genetic variation in human personality: testing evolutionary models by estimating heritability due to common causal variants and investigating the effect of distant inbreeding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verweij, Karin J H; Yang, Jian; Lahti, Jari; Veijola, Juha; Hintsanen, Mirka; Pulkki-Råback, Laura; Heinonen, Kati; Pouta, Anneli; Pesonen, Anu-Katriina; Widen, Elisabeth; Taanila, Anja; Isohanni, Matti; Miettunen, Jouko; Palotie, Aarno; Penke, Lars; Service, Susan K; Heath, Andrew C; Montgomery, Grant W; Raitakari, Olli; Kähönen, Mika; Viikari, Jorma; Räikkönen, Katri; Eriksson, Johan G; Keltikangas-Järvinen, Liisa; Lehtimäki, Terho; Martin, Nicholas G; Järvelin, Marjo-Riitta; Visscher, Peter M; Keller, Matthew C; Zietsch, Brendan P

    2012-10-01

    Personality traits are basic dimensions of behavioral variation, and twin, family, and adoption studies show that around 30% of the between-individual variation is due to genetic variation. There is rapidly growing interest in understanding the evolutionary basis of this genetic variation. Several evolutionary mechanisms could explain how genetic variation is maintained in traits, and each of these makes predictions in terms of the relative contribution of rare and common genetic variants to personality variation, the magnitude of nonadditive genetic influences, and whether personality is affected by inbreeding. Using genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data from > 8000 individuals, we estimated that little variation in the Cloninger personality dimensions (7.2% on average) is due to the combined effect of common, additive genetic variants across the genome, suggesting that most heritable variation in personality is due to rare variant effects and/or a combination of dominance and epistasis. Furthermore, higher levels of inbreeding were associated with less socially desirable personality trait levels in three of the four personality dimensions. These findings are consistent with genetic variation in personality traits having been maintained by mutation-selection balance. © 2012 The Author(s). Evolution© 2012 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

  13. Comparison of Charlson comorbidity index with SAPS and APACHE scores for prediction of mortality following intensive care

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christensen S

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Steffen Christensen1, Martin Berg Johansen1, Christian Fynbo Christiansen1, Reinhold Jensen2, Stanley Lemeshow1,31Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Aarhus University Hospital, Aarhus, Denmark; 2Department of Intensive Care, Skejby Hospital, Aarhus University Hospital, Aarhus, Denmark; 3Division of Biostatistics, College of Public Health, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, USABackground: Physiology-based severity of illness scores are often used for risk adjustment in observational studies of intensive care unit (ICU outcome. However, the complexity and time constraints of these scoring systems may limit their use in administrative databases. Comorbidity is a main determinant of ICU outcome, and comorbidity scores can be computed based on data from most administrative databases. However, limited data exist on the performance of comorbidity scores in predicting mortality of ICU patients.Objectives: To examine the performance of the Charlson comorbidity index (CCI alone and in combination with other readily available administrative data and three physiology-based scores (acute physiology and chronic health evaluations [APACHE] II, simplified acute physiology score [SAPS] II, and SAPS III in predicting short- and long-term mortality following intensive care.Methods: For all adult patients (n = 469 admitted to a tertiary university–affiliated ICU in 2007, we computed APACHE II, SAPS II, and SAPS III scores based on data from medical records. Data on CCI score age and gender, surgical/medical status, social factors, mechanical ventilation and renal replacement therapy, primary diagnosis, and complete follow-up for 1-year mortality was obtained from administrative databases. We computed goodness-of-fit statistics and c-statistics (area under ROC [receiver operating characteristic] curve as measures of model calibration (ability to predict mortality proportions over classes of risk and discrimination (ability to discriminate among the patients

  14. Waist-Hip Ratio Surrogate Is More Predictive Than Body Mass Index of Wound Complications After Pelvic and Acetabulum Surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaeblon, Todd; Perry, Kevin J; Kufera, Joseph A

    2018-04-01

    To determine whether a novel surrogate of waist-hip ratio (WHR) is more predictive of wound complications after pelvis or acetabulum stabilization than body mass index (BMI) and describe the method of measuring a WHR proxy (WHRp). Retrospective review. One Level 1 Trauma Center. One hundred sixty-one patients after operative repair of pelvis and acetabulum fractures. Operative stabilization of a pelvic ring injury or acetabular fracture. Infection (pin, superficial, and deep) and wound healing complication. We retrospectively reviewed 161 subjects after operative repair of pelvic and acetabular fractures. Primary outcome was any wound complication. BMI was acquired from medical records. WHRp was derived from anteroposterior and lateral computed tomography scout images. BMI and WHRp results were analyzed as continuous and categorical variables. BMI was grouped into high-risk categories of ≥30 and ≥40. WHRp data were grouped utilizing the WHO's high-risk profile for females (>0.85) and males (>0.90). An alternative optimal WHR was also assessed. Covariate analysis included demographic data, Injury Severity Score, mechanism, tobacco use, presence and types of open approach, injury type, associated injuries and comorbidities, failure of fixation, and thromboembolism. The mean follow-up was 15.9 months. Twenty-four (15%) patients developed wound complications. Increasing BMI (P < 0.007) and WHRp (P < 0.001) as continuous variables and female sex (P < 0.009) were associated with wound complications. Applying unadjusted continuous data to a receiver operating characteristic curve revealed a greater area under the curve for WHRp than for BMI (P < 0.001). The optimal predictive WHRp was ≥1.0 (P < 0.001, odds ratio 43.11). The receiver operating characteristic curve from adjusted data demonstrated a greater area under the curve for WHRp ≥1.0 (0.93) compared with BMI ≥30 (0.78) or ≥40 (0.75) and WHO WHRp (0.82). Computed tomography generated WHRp demonstrated

  15. Towards a chromatographic similarity index to establish localised quantitative structure-retention relationships for retention prediction. II Use of Tanimoto similarity index in ion chromatography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Soo Hyun; Talebi, Mohammad; Amos, Ruth I J; Tyteca, Eva; Haddad, Paul R; Szucs, Roman; Pohl, Christopher A; Dolan, John W

    2017-11-10

    Quantitative Structure-Retention Relationships (QSRR) are used to predict retention times of compounds based only on their chemical structures encoded by molecular descriptors. The main concern in QSRR modelling is to build models with high predictive power, allowing reliable retention prediction for the unknown compounds across the chromatographic space. With the aim of enhancing the prediction power of the models, in this work, our previously proposed QSRR modelling approach called "federation of local models" is extended in ion chromatography to predict retention times of unknown ions, where a local model for each target ion (unknown) is created using only structurally similar ions from the dataset. A Tanimoto similarity (TS) score was utilised as a measure of structural similarity and training sets were developed by including ions that were similar to the target ion, as defined by a threshold value. The prediction of retention parameters (a- and b-values) in the linear solvent strength (LSS) model in ion chromatography, log k=a - blog[eluent], allows the prediction of retention times under all eluent concentrations. The QSRR models for a- and b-values were developed by a genetic algorithm-partial least squares method using the retention data of inorganic and small organic anions and larger organic cations (molecular mass up to 507) on four Thermo Fisher Scientific columns (AS20, AS19, AS11HC and CS17). The corresponding predicted retention times were calculated by fitting the predicted a- and b-values of the models into the LSS model equation. The predicted retention times were also plotted against the experimental values to evaluate the goodness of fit and the predictive power of the models. The application of a TS threshold of 0.6 was found to successfully produce predictive and reliable QSRR models (Q ext(F2) 2 >0.8 and Mean Absolute Error<0.1), and hence accurate retention time predictions with an average Mean Absolute Error of 0.2min. Crown Copyright

  16. [Genetic isolates and inbreeding customs in three rural municipalities from Honduras].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrera-Paz, Edwin Francisco

    2016-01-01

    The isonymic method has been amply used to assess the approximate genetic structure of human communities. The objective of the study was to evaluate the magnitude of genetic isolation and inbreeding customs in 57 communities from three rural municipalities of Honduras using isonymy techniques. The list of 408 different surnames from 20712 voters registered in the national electoral organism, residing in the 57 Honduran communities, was used for this study. For each community, random (IR), non-random (IN), and total (IT) isonymy values were calculated in order to assess inbreeding coefficients FST, FIS and FIT. High consanguinity due to isolation and to endogamous customs was unveiled in many communities. Significant deviation from the exogamous behavior typical of many human populations was observed in the three studied municipalities, when compared to other Honduran populations. The studied communities present high consanguinity due to isolation, ethnic segregation and/or endogamous customs.

  17. Use of the Charlson Combined Comorbidity Index To Predict Postradiotherapy Quality of Life for Prostate Cancer Patients

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wahlgren, Thomas, E-mail: thomas.wahlgren@telia.com [Department of Oncology-Pathology, Karolinska University Hospital and Institutet, Stockholm (Sweden); Levitt, Seymour [Department of Oncology-Pathology, Karolinska University Hospital and Institutet, Stockholm (Sweden); Department of Therapeutic Radiology, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota (United States); Kowalski, Jan [Department of Clinical Science, Intervention and Technology, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm (Sweden); Nilsson, Sten; Brandberg, Yvonne [Department of Oncology-Pathology, Karolinska University Hospital and Institutet, Stockholm (Sweden)

    2011-11-15

    Purpose: To determine the impact of pretreatment comorbidity on late health-related quality of life (HRQoL) scores after patients have undergone combined radiotherapy for prostate cancer, including high-dose rate brachytherapy boost and hormonal deprivation therapy. Methods and Materials: Results from the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer QLQ-C30 questionnaire survey of 158 patients 5 years or more after completion of therapy were used from consecutively accrued subjects treated with curative radiotherapy at our institution, with no signs of disease at the time of questionnaire completion. HRQoL scores were compared with the Charlson combined comorbidity index (CCI), using analysis of covariance and multivariate regression models together with pretreatment factors including tumor stage, tumor grade, pretreatment prostate-specific antigen level, neoadjuvant hormonal treatment, diabetes status, cardiovascular status, and age and Charlson score as separate variables or the composite CCI. Results: An inverse correlation between the two HRQoL domains, long-term global health (QL) and physical function (PF) scores, and the CCI score was observed, indicating an impact of comorbidity in these function areas. Selected pretreatment factors poorly explained the variation in functional HRQoL in the multivariate models; however, a statistically significant impact was found for the CCI (with QL and PF scores) and the presence of diabetes (with QL and emotional function). Cognitive function and social function were not statistically significantly predicted by any of the pretreatment factors. Conclusions: The CCI proved to be valid in this context, but it seems useful mainly in predicting long-term QL and PF scores. Of the other variables investigated, diabetes had more impact than cardiovascular morbidity on HRQoL outcomes in prostate cancer.

  18. Do Flow and Pulsatility Index within the Accepted Ranges Predict Long-Term Outcomes after Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leon, Maximiliano De; Stanham, Roberto; Soca, Gerardo; Dayan, Victor

    2017-04-12

    Background  Transit-time flow measurement (TTFM) is the gold standard for intraoperative detection of graft failure. Several reports show that TTFM and distal coronary bed quality (DCBQ) may also be useful for midterm detection of graft failure. Nonetheless, there are no data regarding their predictive role on long-term outcomes. Methods  Patients with three-vessel disease who underwent isolated coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) in 2006 and received at least one graft to the left anterior descending artery (LAD) or to the first obtuse marginal (OM1) or posterior descending artery (PDA) were included. Baseline characteristics, mean graft flow, pulsatility index, and subjective impression of DCBQ for each coronary territory were collected. Long-term cardiovascular (CV) and overall survival, operative mortality, and new percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) were evaluated. Results  A total of 177 patients underwent isolated CABG. The OM1 was grafted in 131 patients, the LAD in 169 patients, and the PDA in 100 patients. Neither DQCB nor TTFM were predictors for new PCI. Independent predictors for overall survival were age, previous acute myocardial infarction (AMI), and DQCB of OM1 (odds ratio [OR] = 2.97; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.15-7.71). Age, previous AMI, and DCBQ of OM1 (OR = 2.5; 95% CI: 1.39-4.81) were independent predictors for CV survival. Conclusions  TTFM on patients with functioning grafts does not predict long-term survival or performance of new PCI. Subjective evaluation of distal coronary bed, especially of the OM1, has a strong impact on long-term outcomes. Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  19. Determination of GP88 (progranulin) expression in breast tumor biopsies improves the risk predictive value of the Nottingham Prognostic Index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serrero, Ginette; Hawkins, Douglas M; Bejarano, Pablo A; Ioffe, Olga; Tkaczuk, Katherine R; Elliott, Robert E; Head, Jonathan F; Phillips, Jeffrey; Godwin, Andrew K; Weaver, JoEllen; Hicks, David; Yue, Binbin

    2016-08-08

    The Nottingham Prognostic Index (NPI), which combines numerical values for nodal status, tumor size and histological grade, is used in the standard of care to provide predictive value information on post-surgery survival for patients with primary breast cancer. Attempts to improve the performance of the NPI algorithm have been carried out by testing the inclusion of other biomarker expression and morphological features such as vascular invasion. In the present study, we investigated whether expression of the autocrine growth and survival factor GP88 (progranulin), known to be overexpressed in breast cancer, would improve NPI's predictive value. We examined by immunohistochemistry (IHC) the GP88 expression in 508 cases of estrogen receptor positive invasive ductal carcinoma with known clinical outcomes and for which NPI had been determined. GP88 IHC expression was scored by two board certified pathologists and classified into two score groups of GP88 5.4) and GP88 expression showed that for patients within the same NPI subgroup, patients having tumors with a high GP88 expression (GP88 IHC score of 3+) had a worse DFS than patients with tumors that had a low GP88 expression (GP88 IHC score <3+). When adjusted for NPI, high GP88 score was significantly associated with recurrence with a hazard ratio of 3.30 (95 % CI 2.12 to 5.14). The data suggest that the determination of GP88 tumor expression at time of diagnosis for early stage breast cancer patients can provide additional survival information to that provided by NPI alone and thus may be useful for risk management of patients diagnosed with breast cancer.

  20. How much gene flow is needed to avoid inbreeding depression in wild tiger populations?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenney, John; Allendorf, Fred W.; McDougal, Charles; Smith, James L. D.

    2014-01-01

    The number and size of tiger populations continue to decline owing to habitat loss, habitat fragmentation and poaching of tigers and their prey. As a result, tiger populations have become small and highly structured. Current populations have been isolated since the early 1970s or for approximately seven generations. The objective of this study is to explore how inbreeding may be affecting the persistence of remaining tiger populations and how dispersal, either natural or artificial, may reduce the potentially detrimental effect of inbreeding depression. We developed a tiger simulation model and used published levels of genetic load in mammals to simulate inbreeding depression. Following a 50 year period of population isolation, we introduced one to four dispersing male tigers per generation to explore how gene flow from nearby populations may reduce the negative impact of inbreeding depression. For the smallest populations, even four dispersing male tigers per generation did not increase population viability, and the likelihood of extinction is more than 90% within 30 years. Unless habitat connectivity is restored or animals are artificially introduced in the next 70 years, medium size wild populations are also likely to go extinct, with only four to five of the largest wild tiger populations likely to remain extant in this same period without intervention. To reduce the risk of local extinction, habitat connectivity must be pursued concurrently with efforts to increase population size (e.g. enhance habitat quality, increase habitat availability). It is critical that infrastructure development, dam construction and other similar projects are planned appropriately so that they do not erode the extent or quality of habitat for these populations so that they can truly serve as future source populations. PMID:24990671

  1. Changes in floral biology and inbreeding depression in native and invaded regions of Datura stramonium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiménez-Lobato, V; Martínez-Borda, E; Núñez-Farfán, J; Valverde, P L; Cruz, L L; López-Velázquez, A; Santos-Gally, R; Arroyo, J

    2018-01-01

    Plant populations invading new environments might compromise their fitness contribution to the next generation, because of the lack of native specialist pollinators and/or potential mates. Thus, changes in plant mating system and traits linked to it are expected in populations colonising new environments where selection would favour selfing and floral traits that maximise reproductive output. To test this, we studied native (Mexico) and non-native (Spain) populations of the obligate sexual reproducing annual weed Datura stramonium. Flower size, herkogamy, total number of seeds per plant, number of visits by and type of pollinators, and inbreeding depression were assessed in native and non-native populations. Finally, we measured phenotypic selection on corolla size and herkogamy in each population. Flower size and herkogamy showed wide and similar variation in both ranges. However, the largest average flower size was found in one non-native population whereas the highest average positive herkogamy was detected in one native population. On average, flowers in the native range received more visits by pollinators. Hawkmoths were the main visitors in the native populations while only bees were observed visiting flowers in Spain's populations. Only in the native range was inbreeding depression detected. Selection to reduce herkogamy was found only in one native population. Absence of both inbreeding depression and selection on floral traits suggest a change in mating system of D. stramonium in a new range where generalist pollinators may be promoting high reproductive success. Selection against deleterious alleles might explain the reduction of inbreeding depression, promoting the evolution of selfing. © 2017 German Society for Plant Sciences and The Royal Botanical Society of the Netherlands.

  2. Adjustment of costly extra-group paternity according to inbreeding risk in a cooperative mammal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nichols, Hazel J; Cant, Michael A; Sanderson, Jennifer L

    2015-01-01

    Females of many animal species seek mating opportunities with multiple males, despite being able to obtain sufficient sperm to father their offspring from a single male. In animals that live in stable social groups, females often choose to mate outside their group resulting in extra-group paternity (EGP). One reason proposed to explain female choice for extra-group males is to obtain compatible genes, for example, in order to avoid inbreeding depression in offspring. The benefits of such extra-group paternities could be substantial if they result in fitter, outbred offspring. However, avoiding inbreeding in this way could be costly for females, for example, through retaliation by cuckolded males or through receiving aggression while prospecting for extra-group mating opportunities. We investigate the costs and benefits of EGP in the banded mongoose Mungos mungo , a cooperatively breeding mammal in which within-group mates are sometimes close relatives. We find that pups born to females that mate with extra-group males are more genetically heterozygous are heavier and are more likely to survive to independence than pups born to females that mate within their group. However, extra-group matings also involve substantial costs as they occur during violent encounters that sometimes result in injury and death. This appears to lead femalebanded mongooses to adaptively adjust EGP levels according to the current risk of inbreeding associated with mating within the group. For group-living animals, the costs of intergroup interactions may help to explain variation in both inbreeding rates and EGP within and between species.

  3. Interactions of inbreeding and stress by poor host quality in a root hemiparasite.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandner, Tobias Michael; Matthies, Diethart

    2017-01-01

    Populations of many hemiparasitic plants are fragmented and threatened by inbreeding depression (ID). In addition, they may also be strongly affected by a lack of suitable host species. However, nothing is known about possible interactive effects of inbreeding and host quality for parasitic plants. Poor host quality represents a special type of biotic stress and the magnitude of ID is often expected to be higher in more stressful environments. We studied the effects of inbreeding and the quality of host species for the declining root hemiparasite Rhinanthus alectorolophus Selfed and open-pollinated parasites from two natural populations were grown (1) with 13 potential host species and (2) with 15 four-species mixtures. ID differed among host species and mixtures. In the first experiment, ID was highest in parasites grown with good hosts and declined with stress intensity. In the second experiment, ID was not influenced by stress intensity, but was highest in mixtures of hosts from only one functional group and lowest in mixtures containing three functional groups. Both parasite performance with individual host species and the damage to these host species differed between parasites from the two study populations. Our results contradict the common assumption that ID is generally higher in more stressful environments. In addition, they support the importance of diverse host communities for hemiparasitic plants. The differences in host quality between the two parasite populations indicate genetic variation in the adaptation to individual hosts and in host-specific virulence. However, inbreeding did not affect specific host-parasite interactions. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  4. An experimental test of the Westermarck effect: sex differences in inbreeding avoidance

    OpenAIRE

    Urszula M. Marcinkowska; Fhionna R. Moore; Markus J. Rantala

    2013-01-01

    In order to avoid inbreeding, humans and other animals develop a strong sexual aversion to individuals with whom they have lived closely in infancy and early childhood (usually biological siblings), a phenomenon called the "Westermarck effect" or negative sexual imprinting. The mechanisms underlying this phenomenon, however, remain unclear. For example, it is not known whether negative imprinting is based only on actual sexual aversion to brothers and sisters or also on generalizing the trait...

  5. How much gene flow is needed to avoid inbreeding depression in wild tiger populations?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenney, John; Allendorf, Fred W; McDougal, Charles; Smith, James L D

    2014-08-22

    The number and size of tiger populations continue to decline owing to habitat loss, habitat fragmentation and poaching of tigers and their prey. As a result, tiger populations have become small and highly structured. Current populations have been isolated since the early 1970s or for approximately seven generations. The objective of this study is to explore how inbreeding may be affecting the persistence of remaining tiger populations and how dispersal, either natural or artificial, may reduce the potentially detrimental effect of inbreeding depression. We developed a tiger simulation model and used published levels of genetic load in mammals to simulate inbreeding depression. Following a 50 year period of population isolation, we introduced one to four dispersing male tigers per generation to explore how gene flow from nearby populations may reduce the negative impact of inbreeding depression. For the smallest populations, even four dispersing male tigers per generation did not increase population viability, and the likelihood of extinction is more than 90% within 30 years. Unless habitat connectivity is restored or animals are artificially introduced in the next 70 years, medium size wild populations are also likely to go extinct, with only four to five of the largest wild tiger populations likely to remain extant in this same period without intervention. To reduce the risk of local extinction, habitat connectivity must be pursued concurrently with efforts to increase population size (e.g. enhance habitat quality, increase habitat availability). It is critical that infrastructure development, dam construction and other similar projects are planned appropriately so that they do not erode the extent or quality of habitat for these populations so that they can truly serve as future source populations. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

  6. Demographic consequences of inbreeding and outbreeding in Arnica montana: A field experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luijten, S.H.; Kery, M.; Oostermeijer, J.G.B.; Den, Nijs H.J.C.M.

    2002-01-01

    1. The genetic constitution of populations may significantly affect demography. Founder populations or isolated remnants may show inbreeding depression, while established populations can be strongly adapted to the local environment. Gene exchange between populations can lead to better performance if heterozygosity levels are restored (heterosis), or to reduced performance if coadapted gene complexes are disrupted (outbreeding depression). 2. Five populations of the self-incompatible perennial Arnica montana (Asteraceae) were analysed for the demographic consequences of inbreeding and of intra- and interpopulation outcrossing, using both small and large populations as donors for the latter. We analysed seed production and seed weight and monitored growth, survival and flowering of offspring introduced as seeds and as 4-week-old seedlings in a 4-year field experiment. 3. Reduced seed set after selfing was probably due to the self-incompatibility system rather than to inbreeding depression. There was a significant increase for seed set after interpopulation crosses, which resulted from the alleviation of low mate availability in one of the small populations. 4. Significant inbreeding depression was observed for growth rates of plants introduced as seedlings. We found significant heterosis for flowering probability of plants introduced as seeds, but for plants introduced as seedlings, heterosis for seedling size and flowering probability was only marginally significant. Outbreeding depression was not observed. 5. The results of this study are important for reinforcement measures in small, remnant populations. Significant differences among populations for all measured fitness components suggest that reinforcement is best achieved using material from several populations. 6. The observed higher survival of seedlings as compared with seeds suggests that it is better to plant individuals than to sow. Sowing, however, is easier and cheaper, and was more likely to eliminate

  7. Nutritional risk index as an independent predictive factor for the development of surgical site infection after pancreaticoduodenectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shinkawa, Hiroji; Takemura, Shigekazu; Uenishi, Takahiro; Sakae, Masayuki; Ohata, Kazunori; Urata, Yorihisa; Kaneda, Kazuhisa; Nozawa, Akinori; Kubo, Shoji

    2013-03-01

    Malnutrition has been considered a risk factor for the development of a surgical site infection (SSI). The aim of this study was to determine the relationship between preoperative nutritional screenin