Inbreeding in Mimulus guttatus reduces visitation by bumble bee pollinators.

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David E Carr

Full Text Available Inbreeding in plants typically reduces individual fitness but may also alter ecological interactions. This study examined the effect of inbreeding in the mixed-mating annual Mimulus guttatus on visitation by pollinators (Bombus impatiens in greenhouse experiments. Previous studies of M. guttatus have shown that inbreeding reduced corolla size, flower number, and pollen quantity and quality. Using controlled crosses, we produced inbred and outbred families from three different M. guttatus populations. We recorded the plant genotypes that bees visited and the number of flowers probed per visit. In our first experiment, bees were 31% more likely to visit outbred plants than those selfed for one generation and 43% more likely to visit outbred plants than those selfed for two generations. Inbreeding had only a small effect on the number of flowers probed once bees arrived at a genotype. These differences were explained partially by differences in mean floral display and mean flower size, but even when these variables were controlled statistically, the effect of inbreeding remained large and significant. In a second experiment we quantified pollen viability from inbred and self plants. Bees were 37-54% more likely to visit outbred plants, depending on the population, even when controlling for floral display size. Pollen viability proved to be as important as floral display in predicting pollinator visitation in one population, but the overall explanatory power of a multiple regression model was weak. Our data suggested that bees use cues in addition to display size, flower size, and pollen reward quality in their discrimination of inbred plants. Discrimination against inbred plants could have effects on plant fitness and thereby reinforce selection for outcrossing. Inbreeding in plant populations could also reduce resource quality for pollinators, potentially resulting in negative effects on pollinator populations.

Inbreeding depression and purging in a haplodiplois: gender-related effects

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tien, N.S.H.; Sabelis, M.W.; Egas, M.

2015-01-01

Compared with diploid species, haplodiploids suffer less inbreeding depression because male haploidy imposes purifying selection on recessive deleterious alleles. However, alleles of genes only expressed in the diploid females are protected in heterozygous individuals. This leads to the prediction

Inbreeding Depression and Purging in a Haplodiploid: Gender-Related Effects

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tien, N.S.H.; Sabelis, M.W.; Egas, M.

2015-01-01

Compared with diploid species, haplodiploids suffer less inbreeding depression because male haploidy imposes purifying selection on recessive deleterious alleles. However, alleles of genes only expressed in the diploid females are protected in heterozygous individuals. This leads to the prediction

Inbreeding in stochastic subdivided mating systems: the genetic ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

2016-08-26

Aug 26, 2016 ... My results indicate that levels of inbreeding in parasites are impacted by demographic and/or transmission dynamics (subdivided mating, aggregated transmission dynamics and host spatial structure), and that this inbreeding is poorly estimated by 'equilibrium' levels of inbreeding calculated assuming ...

Inbreeding and the evolution of sociality in arthropods.

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Tabadkani, Seyed Mohammad; Nozari, Jamasb; Lihoreau, Mathieu

2012-10-01

Animals have evolved strategies to optimally balance costs and benefits of inbreeding. In social species, these adaptations can have a considerable impact on the structure, the organization, and the functioning of groups. Here, we consider how selection for inbreeding avoidance fashions the social behavior of arthropods, a phylum exhibiting an unparalleled richness of social lifestyles. We first examine life histories and parental investment patterns determining whether individuals should actively avoid or prefer inbreeding. Next, we illustrate the diversity of inbreeding avoidance mechanisms in arthropods, from the dispersal of individuals to the rejection of kin during mate choice and the production of unisexual broods by females. Then, we address the particular case of haplodiploid insects. Finally, we discuss how inbreeding may drive and shape the evolution of arthropods societies along two theoretical pathways.

Genomic Inbreeding and Relatedness in Wild Panda Populations.

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Garbe, John R; Prakapenka, Dzianis; Tan, Cheng; Da, Yang

2016-01-01

Inbreeding and relatedness in wild panda populations are important parameters for panda conservation. Habitat loss and fragmentation are expected to increase inbreeding but the actual inbreeding levels in natural panda habitats were unknown. Using 150,025 SNPs and 14,926 SNPs selected from published whole-genome sequences, we estimated genomic inbreeding coefficients and relatedness of 49 pandas including 34 wild pandas sampled from six habitats. Qinling and Liangshan pandas had the highest levels of inbreeding and relatedness measured by genomic inbreeding and coancestry coefficients, whereas the inbreeding levels in Qionglai and Minshan were 28-45% of those in Qinling and Liangshan. Genomic coancestry coefficients between pandas from different habitats showed that panda populations from the four largest habitats, Minshan, Qionglai, Qinling and Liangshan, were genetically unrelated. Pandas between these four habitats on average shared 66.0-69.1% common alleles and 45.6-48.6% common genotypes, whereas pandas within each habitat shared 71.8-77.0% common alleles and 51.7-60.4% common genotypes. Pandas in the smaller populations of Qinling and Liangshan were more similarly to each other than pandas in the larger populations of Qionglai and Minshan according to three genomic similarity measures. Panda genetic differentiation between these habitats was positively related to their geographical distances. Most pandas separated by 200 kilometers or more shared no common ancestral alleles. The results provided a genomic quantification of the actual levels of inbreeding and relatedness among pandas in their natural habitats, provided genomic confirmation of the relationship between genetic diversity and geographical distances, and provided genomic evidence to the urgency of habitat protection.

Genomic Inbreeding and Relatedness in Wild Panda Populations

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Da, Yang

2016-01-01

Inbreeding and relatedness in wild panda populations are important parameters for panda conservation. Habitat loss and fragmentation are expected to increase inbreeding but the actual inbreeding levels in natural panda habitats were unknown. Using 150,025 SNPs and 14,926 SNPs selected from published whole-genome sequences, we estimated genomic inbreeding coefficients and relatedness of 49 pandas including 34 wild pandas sampled from six habitats. Qinling and Liangshan pandas had the highest levels of inbreeding and relatedness measured by genomic inbreeding and coancestry coefficients, whereas the inbreeding levels in Qionglai and Minshan were 28–45% of those in Qinling and Liangshan. Genomic coancestry coefficients between pandas from different habitats showed that panda populations from the four largest habitats, Minshan, Qionglai, Qinling and Liangshan, were genetically unrelated. Pandas between these four habitats on average shared 66.0–69.1% common alleles and 45.6–48.6% common genotypes, whereas pandas within each habitat shared 71.8–77.0% common alleles and 51.7–60.4% common genotypes. Pandas in the smaller populations of Qinling and Liangshan were more similarly to each other than pandas in the larger populations of Qionglai and Minshan according to three genomic similarity measures. Panda genetic differentiation between these habitats was positively related to their geographical distances. Most pandas separated by 200 kilometers or more shared no common ancestral alleles. The results provided a genomic quantification of the actual levels of inbreeding and relatedness among pandas in their natural habitats, provided genomic confirmation of the relationship between genetic diversity and geographical distances, and provided genomic evidence to the urgency of habitat protection. PMID:27494031

Life history correlates of inbreeding depression in mandrills (Mandrillus sphinx).

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Charpentier, M; Setchell, J M; Prugnolle, F; Wickings, E J; Peignot, P; Balloux, F; Hossaert-McKey, M

2006-01-01

Inbreeding depression reflects the negative consequences of increased homozygosity at genes that affect fitness. We investigate inbreeding depression in a semi-free-ranging colony of mandrills (Mandrillus sphinx), using high-quality pedigree data, comprising five maternal generations and 20 years of morphological and demographic data. We examine the relationship between inbreeding coefficients and four fitness correlates: two growth parameters (mass and height for age) and longevity in both sexes, and age at first conception in females. Inbreeding was correlated with both growth parameters, but only in females, with inbred females being smaller than noninbred females. Inbreeding was also correlated significantly with age at first conception, with inbred females giving birth earlier in life than noninbred females. We suggest that sex-biased maternal investment may explain this sex-differential response to inbreeding, although the lack of a significant association between inbreeding and growth in males may also be due to the provisioned nature of the colony. The surprising relationship between age at first conception and inbreeding may be related to smaller adult size in inbred females, or to their being less able to escape from male sexual coercion.

Genomic dissection of inbreeding depression: a gate to new opportunities

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Ino Curik

Full Text Available ABSTRACT Inbreeding depression, reduction in performance of quantitative traits, including reproduction and survival, caused by inbreeding, is a well-known phenomenon observed in almost all experimental, domesticated, and natural populations. In spite of its importance to the fate of a small population and numerous research performed in the last century, the genetic basis of inbreeding depression is still unclear. Recent fast development of molecular techniques has enabled estimation of a genomic inbreeding coefficient (FROH, which reflects realized autozygosity and can be further partitioned to chromosomes and chromosomal segments. In this review, we first describe classical approach used in the estimation of inbreeding in livestock populations, followed by early concepts of replacing pedigree inbreeding coefficient by individual heterozygosity. Then, we explain runs of homozygosity as key approach in estimating realized autozygosity. Furthermore, we present two different concepts of analysing regions that substantially contribute to the inbreeding depression. Thus, we describe how to identify or map mutations that result in the reduction of performance and, in terms of quantitative genetics, how to analyse the architecture of inbreeding depression. At the end, we discuss future perspectives in eliminating deleterious mutations from livestock populations.

Parental care buffers against inbreeding depression in burying beetles.

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Pilakouta, Natalie; Jamieson, Seonaidh; Moorad, Jacob A; Smiseth, Per T

2015-06-30

When relatives mate, their inbred offspring often suffer a reduction in fitness-related traits known as "inbreeding depression." There is mounting evidence that inbreeding depression can be exacerbated by environmental stresses such as starvation, predation, parasitism, and competition. Parental care may play an important role as a buffer against inbreeding depression in the offspring by alleviating these environmental stresses. Here, we examine the effect of parental care on the fitness costs of inbreeding in the burying beetle Nicrophorus vespilloides, an insect with facultative parental care. We used a 2 × 2 factorial design with the following factors: (i) the presence or absence of a caring female parent during larval development and (ii) inbred or outbred offspring. We examined the joint influence of maternal care and inbreeding status on fitness-related offspring traits to test the hypothesis that maternal care improves the performance of inbred offspring more than that of outbred offspring. Indeed, the female's presence led to a higher increase in larval survival in inbred than in outbred broods. Receiving care at the larval stage also increased the lifespan of inbred but not outbred adults, suggesting that the beneficial buffering effects of maternal care can persist long after the offspring have become independent. Our results show that parental care has the potential to moderate the severity of inbreeding depression, which in turn may favor inbreeding tolerance and influence the evolution of mating systems and other inbreeding-avoidance mechanisms.

Evaluation of inbreeding depression in Holstein cattle using whole-genome SNP markers and alternative measures of genomic inbreeding.

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Bjelland, D W; Weigel, K A; Vukasinovic, N; Nkrumah, J D

2013-07-01

The effects of increased pedigree inbreeding in dairy cattle populations have been well documented and result in a negative impact on profitability. Recent advances in genotyping technology have allowed researchers to move beyond pedigree analysis and study inbreeding at a molecular level. In this study, 5,853 animals were genotyped for 54,001 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP); 2,913 cows had phenotypic records including a single lactation for milk yield (from either lactation 1, 2, 3, or 4), reproductive performance, and linear type conformation. After removing SNP with poor call rates, low minor allele frequencies, and departure from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium, 33,025 SNP remained for analyses. Three measures of genomic inbreeding were evaluated: percent homozygosity (FPH), inbreeding calculated from runs of homozygosity (FROH), and inbreeding derived from a genomic relationship matrix (FGRM). Average FPH was 60.5±1.1%, average FROH was 3.8±2.1%, and average FGRM was 20.8±2.3%, where animals with larger values for each of the genomic inbreeding indices were considered more inbred. Decreases in total milk yield to 205d postpartum of 53, 20, and 47kg per 1% increase in FPH, FROH, and FGRM, respectively, were observed. Increases in days open per 1% increase in FPH (1.76 d), FROH (1.72 d), and FGRM (1.06 d) were also noted, as well as increases in maternal calving difficulty (0.09, 0.03, and 0.04 on a 5-point scale for FPH, FROH, and FGRM, respectively). Several linear type traits, such as strength (-0.40, -0.11, and -0.19), rear legs rear view (-0.35, -0.16, and -0.14), front teat placement (0.35, 0.25, 0.18), and teat length (-0.24, -0.14, and -0.13) were also affected by increases in FPH, FROH, and FGRM, respectively. Overall, increases in each measure of genomic inbreeding in this study were associated with negative effects on production and reproductive ability in dairy cows. Copyright © 2013 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc

Estimating the inbreeding depression on cognitive behavior: a population based study of child cohort.

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Mohd Fareed

Full Text Available Cognitive ability tests are widely assumed to measure maximal intellectual performance and predictive associations between intelligence quotient (IQ scores and later mental health problems. Very few epidemiologic studies have been done to demonstrate the relationship between familial inbreeding and modest cognitive impairments in children.We aimed to estimate the effect of inbreeding on children's cognitive behavior in comparison with non-inbred children.A cohort of 408 children (6 to 15 years of age was selected from inbred and non-inbred families of five Muslim populations of Jammu region. The Wechsler Intelligence Scales for Children (WISC was used to measure the verbal IQ (VIQ, performance IQ (PIQ and full scale IQ (FSIQ. Family pedigrees were drawn to access the family history and children's inbred status in terms of coefficient of inbreeding (F.We found significant decline in child cognitive abilities due to inbreeding and high frequency of mental retardation among offspring from inbred families. The mean differences (95% C.I. were reported for the VIQ, being -22.00 (-24.82, -19.17, PIQ -26.92 (-29.96, -23.87 and FSIQ -24.47 (-27.35,-21.59 for inbred as compared to non-inbred children (p<0.001 [corrected].The higher risk of being mentally retarded was found to be more obvious among inbred categories corresponding to the degree of inbreeding and the same accounts least for non-inbred children (p<0.0001. We observed an increase in the difference in mean values for VIQ, PIQ and FSIQ with the increase of inbreeding coefficient and these were found to be statistically significant (p<0.05. The regression analysis showed a fitness decline (depression for VIQ (R2 = 0.436, PIQ (R2 = 0.468 and FSIQ (R2 = 0.464 with increasing inbreeding coefficients (p<0.01.Our comprehensive assessment provides the evidence for inbreeding depression on cognitive abilities among children.

Research on inbreeding in the 'omic' era

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kristensen, Torsten N; Pedersen, Kamilla S; Vermeulen, Cornelis J

2010-01-01

Developments in molecular and systems biology have enabled novel approaches to be used in the study of inbreeding. Mechanistic and functional studies using ‘omic' technologies can increase the understanding of the consequences of inbreeding, from the level of DNA to that of population growth...

The environmental dependence of inbreeding depression in a wild bird population.

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Marta Szulkin

2007-10-01

Full Text Available Inbreeding depression occurs when the offspring produced as a result of matings between relatives show reduced fitness, and is generally understood as a consequence of the elevated expression of deleterious recessive alleles. How inbreeding depression varies across environments is of importance for the evolution of inbreeding avoidance behaviour, and for understanding extinction risks in small populations. However, inbreeding-by-environment (IxE interactions have rarely been investigated in wild populations.We analysed 41 years of breeding events from a wild great tit (Parus major population and used 11 measures of the environment to categorise environments as relatively good or poor, testing whether these measures influenced inbreeding depression. Although inbreeding always, and environmental quality often, significantly affected reproductive success, there was little evidence for statistically significant I x E interactions at the level of individual analyses. However, point estimates of the effect of the environment on inbreeding depression were sometimes considerable, and we show that variation in the magnitude of the I x E interaction across environments is consistent with the expectation that this interaction is more marked across environmental axes with a closer link to overall fitness, with the environmental dependence of inbreeding depression being elevated under such conditions. Hence, our analyses provide evidence for an environmental dependence of the inbreeding x environment interaction: effectively an I x E x E.Overall, our analyses suggest that I x E interactions may be substantial in wild populations, when measured across relevant environmental contrasts, although their detection for single traits may require very large samples, or high rates of inbreeding.

Mating system and ploidy influence levels of inbreeding depression in Clarkia (Onagraceae).

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Barringer, Brian C; Geber, Monica A

2008-05-01

Inbreeding depression is the reduction in offspring fitness associated with inbreeding and is thought to be one of the primary forces selecting against the evolution of self-fertilization. Studies suggest that most inbreeding depression is caused by the expression of recessive deleterious alleles in homozygotes whose frequency increases as a result of self-fertilization or mating among relatives. This process leads to the selective elimination of deleterious alleles such that highly selfing species may show remarkably little inbreeding depression. Genome duplication (polyploidy) has also been hypothesized to influence levels of inbreeding depression, with polyploids expected to exhibit less inbreeding depression than diploids. We studied levels of inbreeding depression in allotetraploid and diploid species of Clarkia (Onagraceae) that vary in mating system (each cytotype was represented by an outcrossing and a selfing species). The outcrossing species exhibited more inbreeding depression than the selfing species for most fitness components and for two different measures of cumulative fitness. In contrast, though inbreeding depression was generally lower for the polyploid species than for the diploid species, the difference was statistically significant only for flower number and one of the two measures of cumulative fitness. Further, we detected no significant interaction between mating system and ploidy in determining inbreeding depression. In sum, our results suggest that a taxon's current mating system is more important than ploidy in influencing levels of inbreeding depression in natural populations of these annual plants.

Maternal effects alter the severity of inbreeding depression in the offspring.

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Pilakouta, Natalie; Smiseth, Per T

2016-09-14

A maternal effect is a causal influence of the maternal phenotype on the offspring phenotype over and above any direct effects of genes. There is abundant evidence that maternal effects can have a major impact on offspring fitness. Yet, no previous study has investigated the potential role of maternal effects in influencing the severity of inbreeding depression in the offspring. Inbreeding depression is a reduction in the fitness of inbred offspring relative to outbred offspring. Here, we tested whether maternal effects due to body size alter the magnitude of inbreeding depression in the burying beetle Nicrophorus vespilloides We found that inbreeding depression in larval survival was more severe for offspring of large females than offspring of small females. This might be due to differences in how small and large females invest in an inbred brood because of their different prospects for future breeding opportunities. To our knowledge, this is the first evidence for a causal effect of the maternal phenotype on the severity of inbreeding depression in the offspring. In natural populations that are subject to inbreeding, maternal effects may drive variation in inbreeding depression and therefore contribute to variation in the strength and direction of selection for inbreeding avoidance. © 2016 The Author(s).

Variability of individual genetic load: consequences for the detection of inbreeding depression.

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Restoux, Gwendal; Huot de Longchamp, Priscille; Fady, Bruno; Klein, Etienne K

2012-03-01

Inbreeding depression is a key factor affecting the persistence of natural populations, particularly when they are fragmented. In species with mixed mating systems, inbreeding depression can be estimated at the population level by regressing the average progeny fitness by the selfing rate of their mothers. We applied this method using simulated populations to investigate how population genetic parameters can affect the detection power of inbreeding depression. We simulated individual selfing rates and genetic loads from which we computed fitness values. The regression method yielded high statistical power, inbreeding depression being detected as significant (5 % level) in 92 % of the simulations. High individual variation in selfing rate and high mean genetic load led to better detection of inbreeding depression while high among-individual variation in genetic load made it more difficult to detect inbreeding depression. For a constant sampling effort, increasing the number of progenies while decreasing the number of individuals per progeny enhanced the detection power of inbreeding depression. We discuss the implication of among-mother variability of genetic load and selfing rate on inbreeding depression studies.

Effects of Offspring and Parental Inbreeding on Parent-Offspring Communication.

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Mattey, Sarah N; Richardson, Jon; Ratz, Tom; Smiseth, Per T

2018-06-01

There is mounting evidence that inbreeding can have complex effects on social interactions among inbred and outbred individuals. Here, we investigate effects of offspring and maternal inbreeding on parent-offspring communication in the burying beetle Nicrophorus vespilloides. We find effects of the interaction between offspring and maternal inbreeding on maternal behavior. Outbred females provided more direct care toward inbred larvae, while inbred females provided similar levels of direct care toward inbred and outbred larvae. Furthermore, we find direct and indirect effects of offspring inbreeding on offspring begging and maternal behavior, respectively. Inbred larvae spent less time begging than outbred larvae, and (outbred) females provided more direct care and less indirect care toward inbred larvae. Finally, we find effects of the interaction between offspring and maternal inbreeding on larval body mass. Inbred and outbred offspring grew to a similar size when the female was outbred, while inbred offspring were of a smaller size when the female was inbred. Our results suggest that outbred females provided more care toward inbred offspring to compensate for their poor genetic quality. Our study advances our understanding of inbreeding by showing that inbreeding can have direct effects on the behavior of inbred individuals and indirect effects on the behavior of outbred individuals and that indirect effects on outbred individuals may in turn influence the fitness of inbred individuals.

Academic Inbreeding and Publication Activities of Russian Faculty

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Alipova, Olga; Lovakov, Andrey

2018-01-01

The literature on the consequences of academic inbreeding shows ambiguous results: some papers show that inbreeding positively influences research productivity measured by the quantity and quality of publications, while others demonstrate the opposite effect. There are contradictory results both in the studies of different countries and within…

Countering inbreeding with migration 1. Migration from unrelated ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Ret:ieved 6 Octoher 1991; ut:cepted I8 Mur- 1995. The eff'ect of migration on inbreeding is moclelled fbr small populations with immigrants from a large unrelated population. Different migration rates and numbers fbr the two sexes are assumed, and a general recursion equation for inbreeding progress derived, which can ...

Inbreeding and fertility in Irish Wolfhounds in Sweden: 1976 to 2007

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Urfer Silvan R

2009-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Given that no influence of inbreeding on life expectancy could be demonstrated in Irish Wolfhounds in a previous study, it was decided to test the influence of inbreeding and other parameters on fertility in this breed. Methods The study was based on all Irish Wolfhound litters registered in Sweden between 1976 and 2007 (n = 822 litters as provided by the Swedish Kennel Club (SKK and combined with a pedigree database going back to 1862. Analyses were performed using linear regression in a Generalised Linear Model and other tests in the SAS system®. Results Mean number of pups per litter was 6.01 ± 2.65, with a maximum of 13. There were no significant differences in either the number of litters or the number of pups between years of birth. Males were used for breeding at a significantly earlier age than females. Mean number of litters per parent was 2.96 ± 3.14 for males and 1.59 ± 0.87 for females. No influence of Wright's inbreeding coefficients over 5, 10, 20 and 30 generations and/or Meuwissen's inbreeding coefficients on litter size was detected. In the Generalised Linear Model, highly significant, but weak (coefficient of determination (R2 = 0.0341 influences were found for maternal age at mating as well as maternal inbreeding measured by Wright's inbreeding coefficient over 30 generations and Meuwissen's inbreeding coefficient. Paternal inbreeding coefficients over 5, 10, 20 and 30 generations and calculated after Meuwissen, as well as maternal inbreeding coefficients over 5, 10 and 20 generations did not have significant effects on litter size. Conclusion The low coefficient of determination (R2 value of the Generalised Linear Model indicates that inbreeding does not have a strong influence on fertility in Irish Wolfhounds, which is consistent with earlier results and the breed's genetic history. These results likely reflect the aforementioned genetic history and should not be extrapolated to other breeds without

Evaluation of Optimum Genetic Contribution Theory to Control Inbreeding While Maximizing Genetic Response

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S.-H. Oh

2012-03-01

Full Text Available Inbreeding is the mating of relatives that produce progeny having more homozygous alleles than non-inbred animals. Inbreeding increases numbers of recessive alleles, which is often associated with decreased performance known as inbreeding depression. The magnitude of inbreeding depression depends on the level of inbreeding in the animal. Level of inbreeding is expressed by the inbreeding coefficient. One breeding goal in livestock is uniform productivity while maintaining acceptable inbreeding levels, especially keeping inbreeding less than 20%. However, in closed herds without the introduction of new genetic sources high levels of inbreeding over time are unavoidable. One method that increases selection response and minimizes inbreeding is selection of individuals by weighting estimated breeding values with average relationships among individuals. Optimum genetic contribution theory (OGC uses relationships among individuals as weighting factors. The algorithm is as follows: i Identify the individual having the best EBV; ii Calculate average relationships ( r j ¯ between selected and candidates; iii Select the individual having the best EBV adjusted for average relationships using the weighting factor k, E B V * = E B V j ( 1 - k r j ¯ . iv Repeat process until the number of individuals selected equals number required. The objective of this study was to compare simulated results based on OGC selection under different conditions over 30 generations. Individuals (n = 110 were generated for the base population with pseudo random numbers of N~ (0, 3, ten were assumed male, and the remainder female. Each male was mated to ten females, and every female was assumed to have 5 progeny resulting in 500 individuals in the following generation. Results showed the OGC algorithm effectively controlled inbreeding and maintained consistent increases in selection response. Difference in breeding values between selection with OGC algorithm and by EBV only was 8

Possible negative effects of inbreeding on semen quality in Shetland pony stallions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Eldik, van P.; Waaij, van der E.H.; Ducro, B.J.; Kooper, A.W.; Stout, T.A.E.; Colenbrander, B.

2006-01-01

Inbreeding is widely believed to negatively affect reproductive performance. Indeed, in some species, high levels of inbreeding are thought to be the major cause of poor semen quality. It is, however, not clear whether inbreeding affects fertility in horses. In this study, the relationship between

Inbreeding effects on in vitro embryo production traits in Guzerá cattle.

Science.gov (United States)

Perez, B C; Balieiro, J C C; Ventura, R V; Bruneli, F A T; Peixoto, M G C D

2017-11-01

Inbreeding has been associated with the impairment of reproductive performance in many cattle breeds. Although the usage of reproductive biotechnologies has been increasing in bovine populations, not much attention has been given to the impact of inbreeding over cow's performance on artificial reproduction. The objective of this study was to estimate the impact of inbreeding on in vitro embryo production in a Guzerá breed population. The inbreeding coefficient (F), calculated as half of the co-ancestry of the individual's parents, was used as an estimate of inbreeding. The inbreeding coefficients of the donor, sire (used on in vitro fertilization) and of the embryos were included, separately, in the proposed models either as classificatory or continuous variables (linear and quadratic effects). The percentage of non-inbred individuals (or embryos) and mean F of donors, embryos and sires were 29.38%; 35.76%; 42.86% and 1.98±2.68; 1.32±3.13; 2.08±2.79, respectively. Two different models were considered, one for oocyte production traits and other for embryo production traits. The increase of F of the donor significantly (P0.05) effects were observed for the sire (father of the embryos) inbreeding coefficient over the traits analysed. Embryo's F influenced (Ptechnology. High levels of inbreeding should be avoided when selecting Guzerá female donors and planning in vitro fertilization mating.

Effects of inbreeding on potential and realized immune responses in Tenebrio molitor.

Science.gov (United States)

Rantala, Markus J; Viitaniemi, Heidi; Roff, Derek A

2011-06-01

Although numerous studies on vertebrates suggest that inbreeding reduces their resistance against parasites and pathogens, studies in insects have found contradictory evidence. In this study we tested the effect of 1 generation of brother-sister mating (inbreeding) on potential and realized immune responses and other life-history traits in Tenebrio molitor. We found that inbreeding reduced adult mass, pre-adult survival and increased development time, suggesting that inbreeding reduced the condition of the adults and thus potentially made them more susceptible to physiological stress. However, we found no significant effect of inbreeding on the potential immune response (encapsulation response), but inbreeding reduced the realized immune response (resistance against the entomopathogenic fungi, Beauveria bassiana). There was a significant family effect on encapsulation response, but no family effect on the resistance against the entomopathogenic fungi. Given that this latter trait showed significant inbreeding depression and that the sample size for the family-effect analysis was small it is likely that the lack of a significant family effect is due to reduced statistical power, rather than the lack of a heritable basis to the trait. Our study highlights the importance of using pathogens and parasites in immunoecological studies.

Presence of inbreeding during a selection experiment with Merino ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

192 individual inbreeding coefficients on natural and artificial selection cannot be ruled out. The effect of inbreeding on production and reproduction traits in Merino sheep has been the subject of many studies and reviews (Morley, 1954; Doney,. 1957; Lax & Brown, 1967; Turner & Young, 1969; Dolling,. 1970' Lamberson ...

Influence of Maximum Inbreeding Avoidance under BLUP EBV Selection on Pinzgau Population Diversity

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Radovan Kasarda

2011-05-01

Full Text Available Evaluated was effect of mating (random vs. maximum avoidance of inbreeding under BLUP EBV selection strategy. Existing population structure was under Monte Carlo stochastic simulation analyzed from the point to minimize increase of inbreeding. Maximum avoidance of inbreeding under BLUP selection resulted into comparable increase of inbreeding then random mating in average of 10 generation development. After 10 generations of simulation of mating strategy was observed ΔF= 6,51 % (2 sires, 5,20 % (3 sires, 3,22 % (4 sires resp. 2,94 % (5 sires. With increased number of sires selected, decrease of inbreeding was observed. With use of 4, resp. 5 sires increase of inbreeding was comparable to random mating with phenotypic selection. For saving of genetic diversity and prevention of population loss is important to minimize increase of inbreeding in small populations. Classical approach was based on balancing ratio of sires and dams in mating program. Contrariwise in the most of commercial populations small number of sires was used with high mating ratio.

Short communication: Analysis of inbreeding of the South African ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

In South Africa, the Dairy Swiss breed, which originated in Switzerland, consists of 27 breeders and 1135 breeding cows. Pedigree information on the breed was analysed to determine its effective population size (Ne) and rate of inbreeding. The rate of inbreeding was 0.08% per year and 0.38% per generation.

Inbreeding and Genetic Diversity in Three Imported Swine Breeds in China Using Pedigree Data

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G. Q. Tang

2013-06-01

Full Text Available The accumulation of inbreeding and the loss of genetic diversity is a potential problem in the modern swine breeds in China. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to analyze the pedigrees of Chinese Duroc (CD, Landrace (CL and Yorkshire (CY swine to estimate the past and current rates of inbreeding, and to identify the main causes of genetic diversity loss. Pedigree files from CD, CL and CY containing, 4529, 16,776 and 22,600 records, respectively, were analyzed. Pedigree completeness indexes of the three breeds, accounting for one generation back, were 83.72, 93.93 and 93.59%, respectively. The estimated average annual inbreeding rates for CD, CL and CY in recent three years were 0.21, 0.19 and 0.13%, respectively. The estimated average percentage of genetic diversity loss within each breed in recent three years was about 8.92, 2.19, and 3.36%, respectively. The average relative proportion of genetic diversity loss due to unequal contributions of founders in CD, CL and CY was 69.09, 57.95 and 60.57%, and due to random genetic drift was 30.91, 42.05 and 39.43%, respectively. The estimated current effective population size for CD, CL and CY was 76, 117 and 202, respectively. Therefore, CD has been found to have lost considerable genetic diversity, demanding priority for optimizing the selection and mating to control future coancestry and inbreeding. Unequal contribution of founders was a major cause of genetic diversity loss in Chinese swine breeds and random genetic drift also showed substantial impact on the loss of diversity.

Estimation of Inbreeding Coefficient and Its Effects on Lamb Survival in Sheep

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mohammad almasi

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Introduction The mating of related individuals produces an inbred offspring and leads to an increased homozygosity in the progeny, genetic variance decrease within families and increase between families. The ration of homozygosity for individuals was calculated by inbreeding coefficient. Inbred individuals may carry two alleles at a locus that are replicated from one gene in the previous generations, called identical by descent. The inbreeding coefficient should be monitored in a breeding program, since it plays an important role at decreasing of homeostasis, performance, reproduction and viability. The trend of inbreeding is an indicator for determining of inbreeding level in the herd. Inbreeding affects both phenotypic means of traits and genetic variances within population, thus it is an important factor for delimitations of genetic progress in a population. Reports showed an inbreeding increase led to decrease of phenotypic value in some of the productive and reproductive traits. Materials and Methods In the current study, the pedigree data of 14030 and 6215 records of Baluchi and Iranblack lambs that collected from 1984 to 2011 at the Abbasabad Sheep Breeding Station in Mashhad, Iran, 3588 records of Makoei lambs that collected from 1994 to 2011 at the Makoei sheep breeding station and 6140, records of Zandi lambs that collected from 1991 to 2011 at the Khejir Sheep Breeding Station in Tehran, Iran were used to estimating the inbreeding coefficient and its effects on lamb survival in these breeds. Lamb survival trait was scored as 1 and 0 for lamb surviving and not surviving at weaning weight, respectively. Inbreeding coefficient was estimated by relationship matrix algorithm (A=TDT' methodology using the CFC software program. Effects of inbreeding coefficient on lamb survival were estimated by restricted maximum likelihood (REML method under 12 different animal models using ASReml 3.0 computer programme. Coefficient of inbreeding for each

Trait specific consequences of fast and slow inbreeding: lessonsfrom captive populations of Drosophila melanogaster

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mikkelsen, Karina Aarup; Loeschcke, Volker; Kristensen, Torsten Nygaard

2010-01-01

or 2 generations. These inbred lines were contrasted to non-inbred control lines. We investigated the effect of inbreeding and inbreeding rate in traits associated with fitness including heat, cold and desiccation stress resistance, egg-to-adult viability, development time, productivity, metabolic rate......The increased homozygosity due to inbreeding leads to expression of deleterious recessive alleles, which may cause inbreeding depression in small populations. The severity of inbreeding depression has been suggested to depend on the rate of inbreeding, with slower inbreeding being more effective...... and heat stress conditions. Reduced viability and increased developmental time were observed at stressful temperatures and inbreeding depression was on average more severe at stressful compared to benign temperatures...

EFFECT OF INBREEDING ON PRE-WEANING GROWTH TRAITS IN THALLI SHEEP

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A. HUSSAIN, P. AKHTAR, S. ALI, M. YOUNAS1 AND M. SHAFIQ2

2006-07-01

Full Text Available Pedigree records of 17250 Thalli sheep with 17030 lambings maintained at the Livestock Experiment Station, Rakh Ghulaman, Distt. Bhakkar, Pakistan during the period from 1975 to 2004 were utilized in the present study. Average values for birth weight, weights at 60 and 90 days of age, weaning weight and pre-weaning average daily gain were 4.11 ± 0.82, 11.58 ± 3.57, 14.92 ± 4.56, 18.95 ± 4.56 and 0.12 ± 0.04 kg, respectively. Coefficients of inbreeding ranged from 10.15 to 37.50 percent for 295 animals, being 1.70 percent of the flock. Inbreeding significantly (P<0.01 affected birth and 60 days weight. Birth weight and 60 days weight decreased by 0.051 and 0.048 kg for each 1 percent increase in the level of inbreeding. However, inbreeding had non significant effect on weight at 90 days of age, weaning weight and pre-weaning average daily gain. The regression values for these traits were 0.010, 0.083 and 0.105, respectively. It was concluded that inbreeding showed deleterious effects only in early stages of life but as the lambs grew older the effect of inbreeding on pre-weaning traits diminished.

Proteomic Characterization of Inbreeding-Related Cold Sensitivity in Drosophila melanogaster

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vermeulen, C.J.; Pedersen, Kamilla Sofie; Beck, Hans C.

2013-01-01

insight into the molecular interplay between intrinsic stress responses, inbreeding depression and temperature tolerance, we performed a proteomic characterization of a well-defined conditional inbreeding effect in a single line of Drosophila melanogaster, which suffers from extreme cold sensitivity...

Single-locus complementary sex determination in the inbreeding wasp Euodynerus foraminatus Saussure (Hymenoptera: Vespidae).

Science.gov (United States)

Stahlhut, J K; Cowan, D P

2004-03-01

The Hymenoptera have arrhenotokous haplodiploidy in which males normally develop from unfertilized eggs and are haploid, while females develop from fertilized eggs and are diploid. Multiple sex determination systems are known to underlie haplodiploidy, and the best understood is single-locus complementary sex determination (sl-CSD) in which sex is determined at a single polymorphic locus. Individuals heterozygous at the sex locus develop as females; individuals that are hemizygous (haploid) or homozygous (diploid) at the sex locus develop as males. sl-CSD can be detected with inbreeding experiments that produce diploid males in predictable proportions as well as sex ratio shifts due to diploid male production. This sex determination system is considered incompatible with inbreeding because the ensuing increase in homozygosity increases the production of diploid males that are inviable or infertile, imposing a high cost on matings between close relatives. However, in the solitary hunting wasp Euodynerus foraminatus, a species suspected of having sl-CSD, inbreeding may be common due to a high incidence of sibling matings at natal nests. In laboratory crosses with E. foraminatus, we find that sex ratios and diploid male production (detected as microsatellite heterozygosity) are consistent with sl-CSD, but not with other sex determination systems. This is the first documented example of sl-CSD in a hymenopteran with an apparent natural history of inbreeding, and thus presents a paradox for our understanding of hymenopteran genetics.

Evaluation of 99 S/sub 1/ lines of maize for inbreeding depression

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ahmad, M.; Khan, S.; Ahmad, F.; Shah, N.H.; Akhtar, N.

2010-01-01

The research was conducted to evaluate the performance of S1 lines for inbreeding depression regarding different parameters, using maize variety Azam. The maize variety was self-pollinated for one generation in spring season and in the next sowing season 99 S1 lines obtained from selfing was sown with a parental line. Days to silking, pollen-shedding, plant height , ear-height, ear-length, ear-diameter, number of ears/row, kernel rows/ear and 100 kernel weight showed inbreeding depression with varying degrees while yield kg/ha showed severe inbreeding depression with an average of 362.08 kg/ha. Average value of inbreeding depression for days to silking and pollen-shedding was calculated as 2.02 and 2.21 days, respectively. Average values of inbreeding depression for plant height and ear-height were recorded as 21.50 cm and 4.87 cm, respectively. While, for earlength, ear-diameter, number of ears/row, kernel rows/ear and 100 grain weight, the average value of inbreeding depression was recorded as 1.80 cm, 0.2 cm, 2.5, 2.11 and 3.89 g, respectively. Grain yield was positively and significantly correlated with plant height, ear height and yield components. Maturity traits were positively and significantly linked with each other. It is concluded that by subjecting the maize to self-pollination nearly all the lines were affected; however, some lines were affected severely and others tolerated inbreeding to some extent. The lines showing tolerance against inbreeding depression was selected for further maize breeding. (author)

Plant traits correlated with generation time directly affect inbreeding depression and mating system and indirectly genetic structure

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Hardy Olivier J

2009-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Understanding the mechanisms that control species genetic structure has always been a major objective in evolutionary studies. The association between genetic structure and species attributes has received special attention. As species attributes are highly taxonomically constrained, phylogenetically controlled methods are necessary to infer causal relationships. In plants, a previous study controlling for phylogenetic signal has demonstrated that Wright's FST, a measure of genetic differentiation among populations, is best predicted by the mating system (outcrossing, mixed-mating or selfing and that plant traits such as perenniality and growth form have only an indirect influence on FST via their association with the mating system. The objective of this study is to further outline the determinants of plant genetic structure by distinguishing the effects of mating system on gene flow and on genetic drift. The association of biparental inbreeding and inbreeding depression with population genetic structure, mating system and plant traits are also investigated. Results Based on data from 263 plant species for which estimates of FST, inbreeding (FIS and outcrossing rate (tm are available, we confirm that mating system is the main influencing factor of FST. Moreover, using an alternative measure of FST unaffected by the impact of inbreeding on effective population size, we show that the influence of tm on FST is due to its impact on gene flow (reduced pollen flow under selfing and on genetic drift (higher drift under selfing due to inbreeding. Plant traits, in particular perenniality, influence FST mostly via their effect on the mating system but also via their association with the magnitude of selection against inbred individuals: the mean inbreeding depression increases from short-lived herbaceous to long-lived herbaceous and then to woody species. The influence of perenniality on mating system does not seem to be related to

Inbreeding avoidance in spiders: evidence for rescue effect in fecundity of female spiders with outbreeding opportunity

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bilde, T.; Maklakov, A.A.; Schilling, Nadia

2007-01-01

avoidance can be because of low risk of inbreeding, variation in tolerance to inbreeding or high costs of outbreeding. We examined the relationship between inbreeding depression and inbreeding avoidance adaptations under two levels of inbreeding in the spider Oedothorax apicatus, asking whether preference...... for unrelated sperm via pre- and/or post-copulatory mechanisms could restore female fitness when inbreeding depression increases. Using inbred isofemale lines we provided female spiders with one or two male spiders of different relatedness in five combinations: one male sib; one male nonsib; two male sibs; two...

Assessment of inbreeding depression in Nellore cows (Bos indicus) through high-density SNP genotypes

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Inbreeding has been incriminated as a cause of decrease in reproductive performance in cattle. This negative correlation is known as ‘inbreeding depression’, and evidence supporting this hypothesis was generated from association studies between reproductive traits and estimates of inbreeding coeffic...

Interactive effects of environmental stress and inbreeding on reproductive traits in a wild bird population.

Science.gov (United States)

Marr, A B; Arcese, P; Hochachka, W M; Reid, J M; Keller, L F

2006-11-01

1. Conservation biologists are concerned about the interactive effects of environmental stress and inbreeding because such interactions could affect the dynamics and extinction risk of small and isolated populations, but few studies have tested for these interactions in nature. 2. We used data from the long-term population study of song sparrows Melospiza melodia on Mandarte Island to examine the joint effects of inbreeding and environmental stress on four fitness traits that are known to be affected by the inbreeding level of adult birds: hatching success, laying date, male mating success and fledgling survival. 3. We found that inbreeding depression interacted with environmental stress to reduce hatching success in the nests of inbred females during periods of rain. 4. For laying date, we found equivocal support for an interaction between parental inbreeding and environmental stress. In this case, however, inbred females experienced less inbreeding depression in more stressful, cooler years. 5. For two other traits, we found no evidence that the strength of inbreeding depression varied with environmental stress. First, mated males fathered fewer nests per season if inbred or if the ratio of males to females in the population was high, but inbreeding depression did not depend on sex ratio. Second, fledglings survived poorly during rainy periods and if their father was inbred, but the effects of paternal inbreeding and rain did not interact. 6. Thus, even for a single species, interactions between the inbreeding level and environmental stress may not occur in all traits affected by inbreeding depression, and interactions that do occur will not always act synergistically to further decrease fitness.

Assessment of inbreeding depression for functional herd life in the ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The objective of this study was to investigate the effect of inbreeding depression on functional herd life in the South African Jersey population based on individual level and rate of inbreeding. A pedigree file of the South African Jersey breed (n = 912 638) was obtained from the Integrated Registration and Genetic ...

Better Fitness in Captive Cuvier's Gazelle despite Inbreeding Increase: Evidence of Purging?

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Eulalia Moreno

Full Text Available Captive breeding of endangered species often aims at preserving genetic diversity and to avoid the harmful effects of inbreeding. However, deleterious alleles causing inbreeding depression can be purged when inbreeding persists over several generations. Despite its great importance both for evolutionary biology and for captive breeding programmes, few studies have addressed whether and to which extent purging may occur. Here we undertake a longitudinal study with the largest captive population of Cuvier's gazelle managed under a European Endangered Species Programme since 1975. Previous results in this population have shown that highly inbred mothers tend to produce more daughters, and this fact was used in 2006 to reach a more appropriate sex-ratio in this polygynous species by changing the pairing strategy (i.e., pairing some inbred females instead of keeping them as surplus individuals in the population. Here, by using studbook data we explore whether purging has occurred in the population by investigating whether after the change in pairing strategy a inbreeding and homozygosity increased at the population level, b fitness (survival increased, and c the relationship between inbreeding and juvenile survival, was positive. Consistent with the existence of purging, we found an increase in inbreeding coefficients, homozygosity and juvenile survival. In addition, we showed that in the course of the breeding programme the relationship between inbreeding and juvenile survival was not uniform but rather changed over time: it was negative in the early years, flat in the middle years and positive after the change in pairing strategy. We highlight that by allowing inbred individuals to mate in captive stocks we may favour sex-ratio bias towards females, a desirable managing strategy to reduce the surplus of males that force most zoos to use ethical culling and euthanizing management tools. We discuss these possibilities but also acknowledge that many

Inbreeding depresses sperm competitiveness, but not fertilization or mating success in male Tribolium castaneum

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Michalczyk, Łukasz; Martin, Oliver Y.; Millard, Anna L.; Emerson, Brent C.; Gage, Matthew J. G.

2010-01-01

As populations decline to levels where reproduction among close genetic relatives becomes more probable, subsequent increases in homozygous recessive deleterious expression and/or loss of heterozygote advantage can lead to inbreeding depression. Here, we measure how inbreeding across replicate lines of the flour beetle Tribolium castaneum impacts on male reproductive fitness in the absence or presence of male–male competition. Effects on male evolution from mating pattern were removed by enforcing monogamous mating throughout. After inbreeding across eight generations, we found that male fertility in the absence of competition was unaffected. However, we found significant inbreeding depression of sperm competitiveness: non-inbred males won 57 per cent of fertilizations in competition, while inbred equivalents only sired 42 per cent. We also found that the P2 ‘offence’ role in sperm competition was significantly more depressed under inbreeding than sperm ‘defence’ (P1). Mating behaviour did not explain these differences, and there was no difference in the viability of offspring sired by inbred or non-inbred males. Sperm length variation was significantly greater in the ejaculates of inbred males. Our results show that male ability to achieve normal fertilization success was not depressed under strong inbreeding, but that inbreeding depression in these traits occurred when conditions of sperm competition were generated. PMID:20554548

Stock market index prediction using neural networks

Science.gov (United States)

Komo, Darmadi; Chang, Chein-I.; Ko, Hanseok

1994-03-01

A neural network approach to stock market index prediction is presented. Actual data of the Wall Street Journal's Dow Jones Industrial Index has been used for a benchmark in our experiments where Radial Basis Function based neural networks have been designed to model these indices over the period from January 1988 to Dec 1992. A notable success has been achieved with the proposed model producing over 90% prediction accuracies observed based on monthly Dow Jones Industrial Index predictions. The model has also captured both moderate and heavy index fluctuations. The experiments conducted in this study demonstrated that the Radial Basis Function neural network represents an excellent candidate to predict stock market index.

Severe inbreeding depression in a wild wolf (Canis lupus) population.

Science.gov (United States)

Liberg, Olof; Andrén, Henrik; Pedersen, Hans-Christian; Sand, Håkan; Sejberg, Douglas; Wabakken, Petter; Kesson, Mikael; Bensch, Staffan

2005-03-22

The difficulty of obtaining pedigrees for wild populations has hampered the possibility of demonstrating inbreeding depression in nature. In a small, naturally restored, wild population of grey wolves in Scandinavia, founded in 1983, we constructed a pedigree for 24 of the 28 breeding pairs established in the period 1983-2002. Ancestry for the breeding animals was determined through a combination of field data (snow tracking and radio telemetry) and DNA microsatellite analysis. The population was founded by only three individuals. The inbreeding coefficient F varied between 0.00 and 0.41 for wolves born during the study period. The number of surviving pups per litter during their first winter after birth was strongly correlated with inbreeding coefficients of pups (R2=0.39, pwolf population.

Evidence of inbreeding depression on human height.

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Ruth McQuillan

Full Text Available Stature is a classical and highly heritable complex trait, with 80%-90% of variation explained by genetic factors. In recent years, genome-wide association studies (GWAS have successfully identified many common additive variants influencing human height; however, little attention has been given to the potential role of recessive genetic effects. Here, we investigated genome-wide recessive effects by an analysis of inbreeding depression on adult height in over 35,000 people from 21 different population samples. We found a highly significant inverse association between height and genome-wide homozygosity, equivalent to a height reduction of up to 3 cm in the offspring of first cousins compared with the offspring of unrelated individuals, an effect which remained after controlling for the effects of socio-economic status, an important confounder (χ(2 = 83.89, df = 1; p = 5.2 × 10(-20. There was, however, a high degree of heterogeneity among populations: whereas the direction of the effect was consistent across most population samples, the effect size differed significantly among populations. It is likely that this reflects true biological heterogeneity: whether or not an effect can be observed will depend on both the variance in homozygosity in the population and the chance inheritance of individual recessive genotypes. These results predict that multiple, rare, recessive variants influence human height. Although this exploratory work focuses on height alone, the methodology developed is generally applicable to heritable quantitative traits (QT, paving the way for an investigation into inbreeding effects, and therefore genetic architecture, on a range of QT of biomedical importance.

Inbreeding depression of 28 maize elite open pollinated varieties

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Cleso Antônio Patto Pacheco

2002-01-01

Full Text Available The study of inbreeding depression is important for breeding strategies such as use of inbred progenies or extraction of inbreed lines. A diallel of 28 maize open-pollinated varieties was evaluated in 10 environments in the early 1990s. At the same time, S1 populations for each of the 28 varieties were evaluated in the same 10 experiments (environments. Yield reductions of the populations from S0 to S1 (mean of the 10 environments, varied from 34.6% (CMS-01 to 59.2% (CMS-30, with an average of 49.1%. Inbreeding depression was greater in populations with a wider genetic base, which had never been exposed to inbreeding (CMS-30, BR-107, PH4, Cunha, Saracura, Nitrodent, and Nitroflint. Inbred lines with greater yield means should be obtained from the BR-105, BR-111, CMS-01, CMS-03, BR-106, CMS-14c, and CMS-28 populations. The use of parameter estimates generated by analysis of inbreeding depression, allow to make inferences about frequencies of deleterious alleles in the population. The frequencies of favorable alleles in the parents can be obtained by diallel analysis. The association of these two types of information, can provide a better interpretation of the genetic parameters and also can improve the process of selection of parents for either an intra- or an inter-populational breeding program.

Effects of different levels of inbreeding on progeny fitness in Plantago coronopus

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Koelewijn, H.P.

1998-01-01

Inbreeding depression (delta) is a major selective force favoring outcrossing in flowering plants. Many phenotypic and genetic models of the evolution of selfing conclude that complete outcrossing should evolve whenever inbreeding depression is greater than one-half, otherwise selfing should evolve.

Effects of different levels of inbreeding on progeny fitness in Plantago coronopus

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Koelewijn, HP

Inbreeding depression (delta) is a major selective force favoring outcrossing in flowering plants. Many phenotypic and genetic models of the evolution of selfing conclude that complete outcrossing should evolve whenever inbreeding depression is greater than one-half, otherwise selfing should evolve.

Consequences of inbreeding and reduced genetic variation on tolerance to cadmium stress in the midge Chironomus riparius

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nowak, Carsten; Jost, Daniel; Vogt, Christian; Oetken, Matthias; Schwenk, Klaus; Oehlmann, Joerg

2007-01-01

Inbreeding and loss of genetic variation are considered to be major threats to small and endangered populations. The reduction of fitness due to inbreeding is believed to be more severe under stressful environmental conditions. We generated nine strains of the ecotoxicological model organism Chironomus riparius of different inbreeding levels in order to test the hypothesis that the inbreeding level and thus the degree of genome-wide homozygosity influences the life-history under cadmium exposure. Therefore, midge populations were exposed to a gradient of sediment-bound cadmium. The level of genetic variation in the used strains was assessed using microsatellite markers. In the life-cycle tests, inbreeding reduced fitness within C. riparius populations both under control and stressed conditions. However, differences between genetically diverse and impoverished strains were greatest at high cadmium exposure. Overall, inbreeding effects were not only dependent on cadmium concentrations in the sediment, but also on the life-history trait investigated. While some parameters where only affected by inbreeding, others were altered by both, inbreeding and cadmium. For the larval developmental time, a significant interaction was found between inbreeding and cadmium stress. While all strains showed a similar developmental time under control conditions, high rates of inbreeding led to a significantly delayed emergence time under high cadmium concentrations, resulting in longer generation periods and reduced population growth rates as population-relevant effects. The results show, that bioassays with C. riparius are affected by the level of inbreeding within Chironomus test strains. Pollution stress is therefore likely to affect the survival of rare and endangered populations more severe than that of large and genetically diverse ones

Inbreeding depression in Solanum carolinense (Solanaceae, a species with a plastic self-incompatibility response

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Keser Lidewij H

2008-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Solanum carolinense (horsenettle is a highly successful weed with a gametophytic self-incompatibility (SI system. Previous studies reveal that the strength of SI in S. carolinense is a plastic trait, associated with particular S-alleles. The importance of this variation in self-fertility on the ability of horsenettle to found and establish new populations will depend, to a large extent, on the magnitude of inbreeding depression. We performed a series of greenhouse and field experiments to determine the magnitude of inbreeding depression in S. carolinense, whether inbreeding depression varies by family, and whether the estimates of inbreeding depression vary under field and greenhouse conditions. We performed a series of controlled self- and cross-pollinations on 16 genets collected from a large population in Pennsylvania to obtain progeny with different levels of inbreeding. We grew the selfed and outcrossed progeny in the greenhouse and under field conditions and recorded various measures of growth and reproductive output. Results In the greenhouse study we found (1 a reduction in flower, fruit and seed production per fruit in inbred (selfed progeny when compared to outbred (outcrossed progeny; (2 a reduction in growth of resprouts obtained from rhizome cuttings of selfed progeny; and (3 an increase in the ability to self-fertilize in the selfed progeny. In the field, we found that (1 outcrossed progeny produced more leaves than their selfed siblings; (2 herbivory seems to add little to inbreeding depression; and (3 outcrossed plants grew faster and were able to set more fruits than selfed plants. Conclusion Solanum carolinense experiences low levels of inbreeding depression under greenhouse conditions and slightly more inbreeding depression under our field conditions. The combined effects of low levels of inbreeding depression and plasticity in the strength of SI suggest that the production of selfed progeny may play an

Inbreeding and oubreeding effects on pollen fitness and zygote survival in Silene nutans (Caryophyllaceae)

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hauser, Thure Pavlo; Siegismund, H.R.

2000-01-01

inbreeding depression, oubreeding effects, outcrossing, pollen fitness, selfing, Silene nutans, zygote survival......inbreeding depression, oubreeding effects, outcrossing, pollen fitness, selfing, Silene nutans, zygote survival...

QTL mapping of inbreeding-related cold sensitivity and conditional lethality in Drosophila melanogaster

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vermeulen, Corneel J.; Bijlsma, R.; Loeschcke, Volker

2008-01-01

of inbreeding-related and conditionally expressed lethality in Drosophila melanogaster. The lethal effect was triggered by exposure to a cold shock. We used a North Carolina crossing Design 3 to establish the mapping population, as well as to estimate the average dominance ratio and heritability. We found two......Inbreeding depression is a central theme within genetics, and is of specific interest for researchers within evolutionary and conservation genetics and animal and plant breeding. Inbreeding effects are thought to be caused by the joint expression of conditional and unconditional deleterious alleles....... Whenever the expression of deleterious alleles is conditional, this can result in extreme environmental sensitivity in certain inbred lineages. Analysis of conditional lethal effects can reveal some of the loci that are sensitive to inbreeding. We performed a QTL (quantitative trait locus) mapping study...

Evaluation of Inbreeding and Genetic Variability of Five Pig Breeds in Czech Republic

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E. Krupa

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The complex analysis of the pedigree records of Czech Landrace (CLA, Czech Large White-dam line (CLWd, Czech Large White-sire line (CLWs, Duroc (DC, and Pietrain (PN was performed to determine trends of genetic diversity (GD, and to find the main sources of the GD loss. The total size of the pedigree was 132,365, 391,151, 32,913, 13,299, and 7,160 animals in CLA, CLWd, CLWs, DC, and PN, respectively. Animals born in the years 2011 through 2013 were assumed as the reference population. The average pedigree completeness index for one generation back was 95.9%, 97.4%, 91.2%, 89.8%, and 94.2% for appropriate breeds. Number of ancestors explaining 100% of gene pool was 186, 373, 125, 157, and 37 in CLA, CLWd, CLWs, DC, and PN, respectively. The relative proportion of inbred animals (58%, 58%, 54%, 47%, and 25%, the average inbreeding (2.7%, 1.4%, 2.5%, 3.6%, and 1.3% and the average co-ancestry (3.1%, 1.6%, 3.3%, 4.2%, and 3.3% were found over the past decade in analysed breeds. The expected inbreeding under random mating increased during the last 10 years in CLWs and PN and varied from 1.27% to 3.2%. The effective population size computed on the basis of inbreeding was 76, 74, 50, 35, and 83 in 2012 in CLA, CLWd, CLWs, DC, and PN, respectively. The shortest generation interval (1.45 was observed for CLWd in sire to son selection pathway. The longest generation interval obtained PN (1.95 in sire to daughter pathway. The average relative GD loss within last generation interval was 7.05%, 4.70%, 9.81%, 7.47%, and 10.46%, respectively. The relative proportion of GD loss due to genetic drift on total GD loss was 85.04%, 84.51%, 89.46%, 86.19%, and 83.68% in CLA, CLWd, CLWs, DC, and PN, respectively. All breeds were characterized by a high proportion of inbred animals, but the average inbreeding was low. The most vulnerable breeds to loss of GD are DC and PN. Therefore, a breeding program should be more oriented to prevent the increase of GD loss in these

Mitigation of inbreeding while preserving genetic gain in genomic breeding programs for outbred plants.

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Zibei; Shi, Fan; Hayes, Ben J; Daetwyler, Hans D

2017-05-01

Heuristic genomic inbreeding controls reduce inbreeding in genomic breeding schemes without reducing genetic gain. Genomic selection is increasingly being implemented in plant breeding programs to accelerate genetic gain of economically important traits. However, it may cause significant loss of genetic diversity when compared with traditional schemes using phenotypic selection. We propose heuristic strategies to control the rate of inbreeding in outbred plants, which can be categorised into three types: controls during mate allocation, during selection, and simultaneous selection and mate allocation. The proposed mate allocation measure GminF allocates two or more parents for mating in mating groups that minimise coancestry using a genomic relationship matrix. Two types of relationship-adjusted genomic breeding values for parent selection candidates ([Formula: see text]) and potential offspring ([Formula: see text]) are devised to control inbreeding during selection and even enabling simultaneous selection and mate allocation. These strategies were tested in a case study using a simulated perennial ryegrass breeding scheme. As compared to the genomic selection scheme without controls, all proposed strategies could significantly decrease inbreeding while achieving comparable genetic gain. In particular, the scenario using [Formula: see text] in simultaneous selection and mate allocation reduced inbreeding to one-third of the original genomic selection scheme. The proposed strategies are readily applicable in any outbred plant breeding program.

The effects of inbreeding on sperm quality traits in captive‐bred lake trout, Salvelinus namaycush (Walbaum, 1972)

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Johnson, K.; Butts, I. A. E.; Smith, J. L.

2015-01-01

The effects of inbreeding in both captive and wild‐caught species and populations have been reported to affect a wide variety of life history traits. Recently, the effects of inbreeding on reproductive traits such as sperm quality have become a subject of particular interest for conservation...... biology, evolutionary ecology, and management of captive populations. This study investigated the effects of inbreeding on sperm quality in a captive population of experimentally inbred and outbred lake trout, Salvelinus namaycush. It was found for moderately to highly inbred males (males with half......‐sib and full‐sib parents, respectively), that sperm quality traits (velocity, motility, linearity, longevity, spermatocrit and morphology) showed no apparent inbreeding depression. The apparent lack of inbreeding effects on sperm quality traits may be due to several factors including (i) no inbreeding...

Feral Pigeons (Columba livia Prefer Genetically Similar Mates despite Inbreeding Depression.

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Gwenaël Jacob

Full Text Available Avoidance of mating between related individuals is usually considered adaptive because it decreases the probability of inbreeding depression in offspring. However, mating between related partners can be adaptive if outbreeding depression is stronger than inbreeding depression or if females gain inclusive fitness benefits by mating with close kin. In the present study, we used microsatellite data to infer the parentage of juveniles born in a French colony of feral pigeons, which allowed us to deduce parent pairs. Despite detectable inbreeding depression, we found that pairwise relatedness between mates was significantly higher than between nonmates, with a mean coefficient of relatedness between mates of 0.065, approximately half the theoretical value for first cousins. This higher relatedness between mates cannot be explained by spatial genetic structure in this colonial bird; it therefore probably results from an active choice. As inbreeding but not outbreeding depression is observed in the study population, this finding accords with the idea that mating with genetically similar mates can confer a benefit in terms of inclusive fitness. Our results and published evidence suggest that preference for related individuals as mates might be relatively frequent in birds.

Sex-biased natal dispersal and inbreeding avoidance in American black bears as revealed by spatial genetic analyses.

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Costello, Cecily M; Creel, Scott R; Kalinowski, Steven T; Vu, Ninh V; Quigley, Howard B

2008-11-01

We tested the hypothesis that sex-biased natal dispersal reduces close inbreeding in American black bears, a solitary species that exhibits nearly complete male dispersal and female philopatry. Using microsatellite DNA and spatial data from reproductively mature bears (>or= 4 years old), we examined the spatial genetic structure of two distinct populations in New Mexico from 1993 to 2000. As predicted, relatedness (r) and the frequency of close relationships (parent-offspring or full siblings) decreased with distance among female dyads, but little change was observed among male or opposite-sex dyads. Neighbouring females were more closely related than neighbouring males. The potential for inbreeding was low. Most opposite-sex pairs that lived sufficiently close to facilitate mating were unrelated, and few were close relatives. We found no evidence that bears actively avoided inbreeding in their selection of mates from this nearby pool, as mean r and relationship frequencies did not differ between potential and actual mating pairs (determined by parentage analysis). These basic patterns were apparent in both study areas despite a nearly two-fold difference in density. However, the sex bias in dispersal was less pronounced in the lower-density area, based on proportions of bears with male and female relatives residing nearby. This result suggests that male bears may respond to reduced competition by decreasing their rate or distance of dispersal. Evidence supports the hypothesis that inbreeding avoidance is achieved by means of male-biased dispersal but also indicates that competition (for mates or resources) modifies dispersal patterns.

Variation in parent–offspring kinship in socially monogamous systems with extra‐pair reproduction and inbreeding

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Reid, Jane M.; Bocedi, Greta; Nietlisbach, Pirmin; Duthie, A. Bradley; Wolak, Matthew E.; Gow, Elizabeth A.; Arcese, Peter

2016-01-01

Female extra‐pair reproduction in socially monogamous systems is predicted to cause cuckolded socially‐paired males to conditionally reduce paternal care, causing selection against extra‐pair reproduction and underlying polyandry. However, existing models and empirical studies have not explicitly considered that cuckolded males might be related to their socially‐paired female and/or to her extra‐pair mate, and therefore be related to extra‐pair offspring that they did not sire but could rear. Selection against paternal care, and hence against extra‐pair reproduction, might then be weakened. We derive metrics that quantify allele‐sharing between within‐pair and extra‐pair offspring and their mother and her socially‐paired male in terms of coefficients of kinship and inbreeding. We use song sparrow (Melospiza melodia) paternity and pedigree data to quantify these metrics, and thereby quantify the joint effects of extra‐pair reproduction and inbreeding on a brood's total allelic value to its socially‐paired parents. Cuckolded male song sparrows were almost always detectably related to extra‐pair offspring they reared. Consequently, although brood allelic value decreased substantially following female extra‐pair reproduction, this decrease was reduced by within‐pair and extra‐pair reproduction among relatives. Such complex variation in kinship within nuclear families should be incorporated into models considering coevolutionary dynamics of extra‐pair reproduction, parental care, and inbreeding. PMID:27174154

Telomere length reveals cumulative individual and transgenerational inbreeding effects in a passerine bird

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bebbington, Kat; Spurgin, Lewis G.; Fairfield, Eleanor A.; Dugdale, Hannah L.; Komdeur, Jan; Burke, Terry; Richardson, David S.

Inbreeding results in more homozygous offspring that should suffer reduced fitness, but it can be difficult to quantify these costs for several reasons. First, inbreeding depression may vary with ecological or physiological stress and only be detectable over long time periods. Second, parental

Natal dispersal patterns are not associated with inbreeding avoidance in the Seychelles Warbler

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Eikenaar, C.; Komdeur, J.; Richardson, D. S.

In this study, we test whether patterns of territory inheritance, social mate choice and female-biased natal dispersal act as inbreeding avoidance mechanisms in the cooperatively breeding Seychelles warbler. Our results show that Seychelles warblers do not reduce the likelihood of inbreeding by

Allometric and non-allometric consequences of inbreeding on Drosophila melanogaster wings

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Trotta, Vincenzo; Cavicchi, Sandro; Guerra, Daniela

2011-01-01

Inbreeding is expected to increase the variability in size and shape within populations. The distinct effects of inbreeding on size and shape suggest that they are governed by different developmental pathways. One unresolved question is whether the non-allometric shape component is partially unco...

ARTICLE - Inbreeding depression in castor bean (Ricinus communis L. progenies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Milton Krieger

2012-12-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to investigate inbreeding depression (DE in castor bean. From a population derived from the Guarani cultivar, 60 mother plants were sampled. Three types of progenies were obtained from each one: from self-pollination (AU, from crosses (CR and from open pollination (PL. Grain yield of the progenies was evaluated in two locations. There was a strong interaction of progenies x locations, which led to obtaining estimates within each location. Broad variation was observed in inbreeding depression, with mean values of 6.7% and 13.4%, comparing AU progenies with PL progenies. It was observed that the population has high potential for selecting promising inbred lines. The frequency of mother plants generating progenies with simultaneous high general combination capacity and low inbreeding depression was low. Recurrent selection will increase the occurrence of parent plants associating these two properties, which is necessary for obtaining superior synthetic varieties.

AN ACTION OF EXOGENOUS STEROIDAL GLYCOSIDE ON EXHIBITION OF INBREEDING DEPRESSION IN RED BEET PLANTS UNDER PROTECTED CULTIVATION TECHNOLOGY

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E. G. Kozar

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The protected cultivation technology, through which the various inbred generations with the combination of economic valuable traits and different level of sterility can be produced, is used in order to accelerate the breeding program. However, there is a negative effect of inbreeding depression and self-incompatibility can often occur and cause the loss of valuable breeding forms. The aim of the work was to study the influence of steroidal glycosides capsicoside (SGC on exhibition of CMS, and morphobiological parameters of 13 inbred generations that were produced from fertile plant and partly sterile plants with level of sterility 10% and 50%. The seeds were soaked for 24 hours in water solution of SGC with concentration 10-3%, and in water control. Then the seeds were dried up and sown in the greenhouse. The stecklings and roots obtained were vernalized at 3-5Co. Mother plants were grown under 18 hour photoperiod in greenhouse with supplementary lighting. Inbreeding seeds were obtained in individual cloth isolators. It was shown that for all generations the treatment with SGC improved the seed germination (4-8% more, increased the root index and its length (12-24% more, decreased betanin content (22-48% less in comparison with control. The action of SGC on the other morphological and biochemical traits such as height of leaf rosette, leaf number, plant and root weight, head size, number of generative buds, and nitrate content was defined by the level of sterility of mother plant. The most expressed effect for all traits mentioned was seen in inbreeding generations of sterile plants with high level of sterility. After action effect of seed treatment with SGC on development of seed plants from inbreeding generations, not depending on sterility level of mother plants, showed the positive influence on plant habitus of seed mother plants, decreasing the plant height, but increasing stem number and functional parameters of microgametophyte in fertile

The Self-Regulation Effect of Fertility Status on Inbreeding Aversion: When Fertile, Disgust Increases more in Response to Descriptions of One's Own than of Others' Inbreeding

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Jan Antfolk

2014-07-01

Full Text Available The ovulatory shift modulates emotions related to female sexuality. Because fertility status only affects the individual's own opportunity cost, the adaptive value of this shift is expected to stem from self-regulation. To test this assumption we asked women to contemplate various inbreeding descriptions: 1 they themselves having sex with male relatives; 2 their sister having sex with their common male relatives; and 3 an unrelated woman having sex with her male relatives (in 1, but not 2 and 3, negative fitness consequences are affected by the participant's fertility. We dichotomized the dependent variable disgust (ceiling vs. non-ceiling and analyzed the interaction between fertility status and description type. The ovulatory shift was stronger in descriptions where they themselves were described as engaging in inbreeding. A smaller increase was also found in reactions to others engaging in inbreeding. We explain the latter effect as due to self-reflection.

The effect of fast created inbreeding on litter size and body weights in mice

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Meuwissen Theo

2005-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract This study was designed to reveal any differences in effects of fast created versus total inbreeding on reproduction and body weights in mice. A line selected for large litter size for 124 generations (H and a control line (K maintained without selection for the same number of generations were crossed (HK and used as a basis for the experiment. Within the HK cross, full sib, cousin or random mating were practised for two generations in order to create new inbreeding (IBF at a fast rate. In the first generation of systematic mating, old inbreeding was regenerated in addition to creation of new inbreeding from the mating design giving total inbreeding (IBT. The number of pups born alive (NBA and body weights of the animals were then analysed by a model including both IBT and IBF. The IBT of the dam was in the present study found to reduce the mean NBA with -0.48 (± 0.22 (p F was -0.42 (± 0.27. For the trait NBA per female mated, the effect of IBT was estimated to be -0.45 (± 0.29 per 10% increase in the inbreeding coefficient and the effect of IBF was -0.90 (± 0.37 (p F of the dam could be found on sex-ratio and body weights at three and six weeks of age in a population already adjusted for IBT.

Investigating Inbreeding Depression for Heat Stress Tolerance in the Model Organism "Drosophila Melanogaster"

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Pedersen, Kamilla Sofie; Pedersen, Louise Dybdahl; Sorensen, Anders Christian; Nielsen, Anna Busch; Kristensen, Torsten Nygaard

2012-01-01

Mating between closely related individuals often causes reduced fitness, which is termed "inbreeding depression". Inbreeding is, therefore, a threat towards the persistence of animal and plant populations. Here we present methods and results from a practical for high-school and first-year university students and discuss learning outcomes…

Inbreeding depression in selfs of redwood

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W. J. Libby; B. G. McCutchan; C. I. Millar

1981-01-01

Given the polyploid chromosome constitution of Sequoia sempervirens, there was reason to question whether it would exhibit inbreeding depression. Preliminary results from studies of self and related outcross families are reported as a guide to the selection of trees for redwood seed orchards and breeding-orchards. The data indicate that, compared to...

Predicting fiber refractive index from a measured preform index profile

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Kiiveri, P.; Koponen, J.; Harra, J.; Novotny, S.; Husu, H.; Ihalainen, H.; Kokki, T.; Aallos, V.; Kimmelma, O.; Paul, J.

2018-02-01

When producing fiber lasers and amplifiers, silica glass compositions consisting of three to six different materials are needed. Due to the varying needs of different applications, substantial number of different glass compositions are used in the active fiber structures. Often it is not possible to find material parameters for theoretical models to estimate thermal and mechanical properties of those glass compositions. This makes it challenging to predict accurately fiber core refractive index values, even if the preform index profile is measured. Usually the desired fiber refractive index value is achieved experimentally, which is expensive. To overcome this problem, we analyzed statistically the changes between the measured preform and fiber index values. We searched for correlations that would help to predict the Δn-value change from preform to fiber in a situation where we don't know the values of the glass material parameters that define the change. Our index change models were built using the data collected from preforms and fibers made by the Direct Nanoparticle Deposition (DND) technology.

Inbreeding depression in an insect with maternal care: influences of family interactions, life stage and offspring sex.

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Meunier, J; Kölliker, M

2013-10-01

Although inbreeding is commonly known to depress individual fitness, the severity of inbreeding depression varies considerably across species. Among the factors contributing to this variation, family interactions, life stage and sex of offspring have been proposed, but their joint influence on inbreeding depression remains poorly understood. Here, we demonstrate that these three factors jointly shape inbreeding depression in the European earwig, Forficula auricularia. Using a series of cross-breeding, split-clutch and brood size manipulation experiments conducted over two generations, we first showed that sib mating (leading to inbred offspring) did not influence the reproductive success of earwig parents. Second, the presence of tending mothers and the strength of sibling competition (i.e. brood size) did not influence the expression of inbreeding depression in the inbred offspring. By contrast, our results revealed that inbreeding dramatically depressed the reproductive success of inbred adult male offspring, but only had little effect on the reproductive success of inbred adult female offspring. Overall, this study demonstrates limited effects of family interactions on inbreeding depression in this species and emphasizes the importance of disentangling effects of sib mating early and late during development to better understand the evolution of mating systems and population dynamics. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2013 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Intergenerational effects of inbreeding in Nicrophorus vespilloides: offspring suffer fitness costs when either they or their parents are inbred.

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Mattey, S N; Strutt, L; Smiseth, P T

2013-04-01

Inbreeding depression is the reduction in fitness caused by mating between related individuals. Inbreeding is expected to cause a reduction in offspring fitness when the offspring themselves are inbred, but outbred individuals may also suffer a reduction in fitness when they depend on care from inbred parents. At present, little is known about the significance of such intergenerational effects of inbreeding. Here, we report two experiments on the burying beetle Nicrophorus vespilloides, an insect with elaborate parental care, in which we investigated inbreeding depression in offspring when either the offspring themselves or their parents were inbred. We found substantial inbreeding depression when offspring were inbred, including reductions in hatching success of inbred eggs and survival of inbred offspring. We also found substantial inbreeding depression when parents were inbred, including reductions in hatching success of eggs produced by inbred parents and survival of outbred offspring that received care from inbred parents. Our results suggest that intergenerational effects of inbreeding can have substantial fitness costs to offspring, and that future studies need to incorporate such costs to obtain accurate estimates of inbreeding depression. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2013 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Prediction of massive bleeding. Shock index and modified shock index.

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Terceros-Almanza, L J; García-Fuentes, C; Bermejo-Aznárez, S; Prieto-Del Portillo, I J; Mudarra-Reche, C; Sáez-de la Fuente, I; Chico-Fernández, M

2017-12-01

To determine the predictive value of the Shock Index and Modified Shock Index in patients with massive bleeding due to severe trauma. Retrospective cohort. Severe trauma patient's initial attention at the intensive care unit of a tertiary hospital. Patients older than 14 years that were admitted to the hospital with severe trauma (Injury Severity Score >15) form January 2014 to December 2015. We studied the sensitivity (Se), specificity (Sp), positive and negative predictive value (PV+ and PV-), positive and negative likelihood ratio (LR+ and LR-), ROC curves (Receiver Operating Characteristics) and the area under the same (AUROC) for prediction of massive hemorrhage. 287 patients were included, 76.31% (219) were male, mean age was 43,36 (±17.71) years and ISS was 26 (interquartile range [IQR]: 21-34). The overall frequency of massive bleeding was 8.71% (25). For Shock Index: AUROC was 0.89 (95% confidence intervals [CI] 0.84 to 0.94), with an optimal cutoff at 1.11, Se was 91.3% (95% CI: 73.2 to 97.58) and Sp was 79.69% (95% CI: 74.34 to 84.16). For the Modified Shock Index: AUROC was 0.90 (95% CI: 0.86 to 0.95), with an optimal cutoff at 1.46, Se was 95.65% (95% CI: 79.01 to 99.23) and Sp was 75.78% (95% CI: 70.18 to 80.62). Shock Index and Modified Shock Index are good predictors of massive bleeding and could be easily incorporated to the initial workup of patients with severe trauma. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier España, S.L.U. y SEMICYUC. All rights reserved.

Founder-specific inbreeding depression affects racing performance in Thoroughbred horses.

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Todd, Evelyn T; Ho, Simon Y W; Thomson, Peter C; Ang, Rachel A; Velie, Brandon D; Hamilton, Natasha A

2018-04-18

The Thoroughbred horse has played an important role in both sporting and economic aspects of society since the establishment of the breed in the 1700s. The extensive pedigree and phenotypic information available for the Thoroughbred horse population provides a unique opportunity to examine the effects of 300 years of selective breeding on genetic load. By analysing the relationship between inbreeding and racing performance of 135,572 individuals, we found that selective breeding has not efficiently alleviated the Australian Thoroughbred population of its genetic load. However, we found evidence for purging in the population that might have improved racing performance over time. Over 80% of inbreeding in the contemporary population is accounted for by a small number of ancestors from the foundation of the breed. Inbreeding to these ancestors has variable effects on fitness, demonstrating that an understanding of the distribution of genetic load is important in improving the phenotypic value of a population in the future. Our findings hold value not only for Thoroughbred and other domestic breeds, but also for small and endangered populations where such comprehensive information is not available.

Towards a complete North American Anabaptist Genealogy II: analysis of inbreeding.

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Agarwala, R; Schäffer, A A; Tomlin, J F

2001-08-01

We describe a large genealogy data base, which can be searched by computer, of 295,095 Amish and Mennonite individuals. The data base was constructed by merging our existing Anabaptist Genealogy Database 2.0 containing approximately 85,000 individuals with a genealogy file containing approximately 242,000 individuals, kindly provided by Mr. James Hostetler. The merging process corrected thousands of inconsistencies and eliminated hundreds of duplicate individuals. Geneticists have long been interested in Anabaptist populations because they are closed and have detailed written genealogies. The creation of an enlarged and unified data base affords the opportunity to examine inbreeding trends and correlates in these populations. We show the following results. The frequency of consanguineous marriages shows steady increase over time and reached approximately 85% for individuals born in 1940-1959. Among consanguineous marriages, the median kinship coefficient stayed stable in the 19th century, but rose from 0.0115 to 0.0151 in the 20th century. There are statistically significant associations (p < 0.0001) between inbreeding and family size and interbirth intervals in the 20th century. There is an association (p < 0.0005) between inbreeding and early death for individuals born in 1920-1959. However, this association reverses dramatically (p < 0.0005 in the opposite direction) for individuals born in 1960-1979. We tested for an association between inbreeding and being the mother of twins, but found none.

Inter-specific competitive stress does not affect the magnitude of inbreeding depression

OpenAIRE

Willi, Yvonne; Dietrich, Stefan; van Kleunen, Mark; Fischer, Markus

2007-01-01

Hypothesis: Stressful inter-specific competition enhances inbreeding depression.Organisms: Creeping spearwort (Ranunculus reptans L.) and its common competitor, thecreeping bentgrass (Agrostis stolonifera L.).Field site: Outdoor common garden experiment at the University of Potsdam.Methods: We collected plants of 12 natural populations of R. reptans differing in mean parental inbreeding coefficient (0.01–0.26). We performed within-population crosses for twogenerations and kept the offspring i...

Lack of nucleotide variability in a beetle pest with extreme inbreeding.

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Andreev, D; Breilid, H; Kirkendall, L; Brun, L O; ffrench-Constant, R H

1998-05-01

The coffee berry borer beetle Hypothenemus hampei (Ferrari) (Curculionidae: Scolytinae) is the major insect pest of coffee and has spread to most of the coffee-growing countries of the world. This beetle also displays an unusual life cycle, with regular sibling mating. This regular inbreeding and the population bottlenecks occurring on colonization of new regions should lead to low levels of genetic diversity. We were therefore interested in determining the level of nucleotide variation in nuclear and mitochondrial genomes of this beetle worldwide. Here we show that two nuclear loci (Resistance to dieldrin and ITS2) are completely invariant, whereas some variability is maintained at a mitochondrial locus (COI), probably corresponding to a higher mutation rate in the mitochondrial genome. Phylogenetic analysis of the mitochondrial data shows only two clades of beetle haplotypes outside of Kenya, the proposed origin of the species. These data confirm that inbreeding greatly reduces nucleotide variation and suggest the recent global spread of only two inbreeding lines of this bark beetle.

How Much Does Inbreeding Reduce Heterozygosity? Empirical Results from Aedes aegypti

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Powell, Jeffrey R.; Evans, Benjamin R.

2017-01-01

Deriving strains of mosquitoes with reduced genetic variation is useful, if not necessary, for many genetic studies. Inbreeding is the standard way of achieving this. Full-sib inbreeding the mosquito Aedes aegypti for seven generations reduced heterozygosity to 72% of the initial heterozygosity in contrast to the expected 13%. This deviation from expectations is likely due to high frequencies of deleterious recessive alleles that, given the number of markers studied (27,674 single nucleotide polymorphisms [SNPs]), must be quite densely spread in the genome. PMID:27799643

Investigating inbreeding depression for heat stress tolerance in the model organism Drosophila melanogaster

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Kamilla Sofie; Pedersen, Louise Dybdahl; Sørensen, Anders Christian

2012-01-01

Mating between closely related individuals often causes reduced fitness, which is termed ‘inbreeding depression’. Inbreeding is, therefore, a threat towards the persistence of animal and plant populations. Here we present methods and results from a practical for high-school and first-year univers......Mating between closely related individuals often causes reduced fitness, which is termed ‘inbreeding depression’. Inbreeding is, therefore, a threat towards the persistence of animal and plant populations. Here we present methods and results from a practical for high-school and first......-year university students and discuss learning outcomes of the exercise as an example of inquiry-based science teaching. We use the model organism Drosophila melanogaster to test the ability of inbred and control (non-inbred) females to survive heat stress exposure. Flies were anaesthetised and collected...... into vials before exposure to 38°C heat stress in a water bath for 1 h. Half an hour later the number of comatose inbred and control flies were scored and chi-square statistic procedures were used to test for different degrees of heat stress tolerance between the two lines of flies. The practical introduces...

An inbreeding model of associative overdominance during a population bottleneck.

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Bierne, N; Tsitrone, A; David, P

2000-08-01

Associative overdominance, the fitness difference between heterozygotes and homozygotes at a neutral locus, is classically described using two categories of models: linkage disequilibrium in small populations or identity disequilibrium in infinite, partially selfing populations. In both cases, only equilibrium situations have been considered. In the present study, associative overdominance is related to the distribution of individual inbreeding levels (i.e., genomic autozygosity). Our model integrates the effects of physical linkage and variation in inbreeding history among individual pedigrees. Hence, linkage and identity disequilibrium, traditionally presented as alternatives, are summarized within a single framework. This allows studying nonequilibrium situations in which both occur simultaneously. The model is applied to the case of an infinite population undergoing a sustained population bottleneck. The effects of bottleneck size, mating system, marker gene diversity, deleterious genomic mutation parameters, and physical linkage are evaluated. Bottlenecks transiently generate much larger associative overdominance than observed in equilibrium finite populations and represent a plausible explanation of empirical results obtained, for instance, in marine species. Moreover, the main origin of associative overdominance is random variation in individual inbreeding whereas physical linkage has little effect.

Academic Inbreeding: Exploring Its Characteristics and Rationale in Japanese Universities Using a Qualitative Perspective

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Horta, Hugo; Sato, Machi; Yonezawa, Akiyoshi

2011-01-01

This study analyses why and how academic inbreeding as a recruitment practice continues to prevail in Japan, a country with a mature higher education system, where high rates of academic inbreeding endure in most of the research-oriented universities in spite of several higher education reforms. Based on a qualitative analysis, we disclose three…

Inbreeding in Gredos mountain range (Spain): contribution of multiple consanguinity and intervalley variation.

Science.gov (United States)

Fuster, V; Jiménez, A M; Colantonio, S E

2001-04-01

The present paper examines consanguineous marriages occurring between 1874 and 1975 in three valleys (Tormes, Alberche, and Tiétar) in the Sierra de Gredos mountain range, Avila province, Spain. Information was obtained from parish registers of 42 localities, corresponding to a total of 41,696 weddings. Consanguineous marriages were defined as those up to the third degree of consanguinity (second cousins). From 1874 to 1975 the percentage of related mates was 4.45% and the inbreeding coefficient was 0.0011868 (for 1874 to 1917 corresponding figures up to the fourth degree were 16.44% and 0.00 19085, respectively). In order to ascertain the characteristics and evolution of mating patterns in Gredos, the contribution of each degree of kinship was analyzed as a whole and then for each valley separately. Regarding total consanguineous marriages in Gredos, there is a low frequency of uncle-niece matings (0.21%) and a first-second cousin mating ratio (C22/C33) of 0.23 (up to the third degree of consanguinity). Before 1918 multiple matings (i.e., those involving more than a single relationship) accounted for 19.16% of consanguineous marriages (up to the fourth degree). The observed frequencies of multiple consanguineous marriages was, on average, about twice that expected at random, and the proportion of such marriages to total inbreeding was 34.65%. The temporal change of the Gredos inbreeding pattern was characterized by a recent decrease; the highest inbreeding levels correspond to the period from 1915 to 1944. Finally, intervalley differences (maximum inbreeding coefficient in the Tormes, minimum in the Tiétar) are interpreted considering the geography, population size, and population mobility for each valley

Metabolomic Signatures of Inbreeding at Benign and Stressful Temperatures in Drosophila melanogaster

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Kamilla Sofie; Kristensen, Torsten Nygård; Loeschcke, Volker

2008-01-01

-line variation in metabolite profiles compared to outbred lines. In contrast to previous observations revealing interactions between inbreeding and environmental stress on gene expression patterns and life-history traits, the effect of inbreeding on the metabolite profile was similar across the different...... and five inbred lines were studied by nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy after exposure to benign temperature, heat stress, or cold stress. In both the absence and the presence of temperature stress, metabolite levels were significantly different among inbred and outbred lines. The major effect...

Short communication: Effective population size and inbreeding rate ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Short communication: Effective population size and inbreeding rate of indigenous Nguni cattle under in situ conservation in the low-input communal production ... as not at risk of extinction, while the individual enterprises were classified as being endangered-maintained without the exchange of germ plasm among them.

Inbreeding avoidance influences the viability of reintroduced populations of African wild dogs (Lycaon pictus.

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Penny A Becker

Full Text Available The conservation of many fragmented and small populations of endangered African wild dogs (Lycaon pictus relies on understanding the natural processes affecting genetic diversity, demographics, and future viability. We used extensive behavioural, life-history, and genetic data from reintroduced African wild dogs in South Africa to (1 test for inbreeding avoidance via mate selection and (2 model the potential consequences of avoidance on population persistence. Results suggested that wild dogs avoided mating with kin. Inbreeding was rare in natal packs, after reproductive vacancies, and between sibling cohorts (observed on 0.8%, 12.5%, and 3.8% of occasions, respectively. Only one of the six (16.7% breeding pairs confirmed as third-order (or closer kin consisted of animals that were familiar with each other, while no other paired individuals had any prior association. Computer-simulated populations allowed to experience inbreeding had only a 1.6% probability of extinction within 100 years, whereas all populations avoiding incestuous matings became extinct due to the absence of unrelated mates. Populations that avoided mating with first-order relatives became extinct after 63 years compared with persistence of 37 and 19 years for those also prevented from second-order and third-order matings, respectively. Although stronger inbreeding avoidance maintains significantly more genetic variation, our results demonstrate the potentially severe demographic impacts of reduced numbers of suitable mates on the future viability of small, isolated wild dog populations. The rapid rate of population decline suggests that extinction may occur before inbreeding depression is observed.

Rehabilitation after stroke: predictive power of Barthel Index versus a cognitive and a motor index

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Engberg, A; Bentzen, L; Garde, B

1995-01-01

The aim of the present study was to investigate the predictive power of ratings of Barthel Index at Day 40 post stroke, compared with and/or combined with simultaneous ratings from a mobility scale (EG motor index) and a rather simple cognitive test scale (CT50). The parameter to be individually...... predicted was the need for special living facilities and support at discharge from a rehabilitation hospital, as well as six months later; 53 stroke patients with age median 68 years were included in this prospective study. It was shown that a combination of Barthel Index and CT50 had a stronger predictive...

A major QTL affects temperature sensitive adult lethality and inbreeding depression in life span in Drosophila melanogaster

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vermeulen, Cornelius J.; Bijlsma, R.; Loeschcke, Volker

2008-01-01

Background: The study of inbreeding depression has major relevance for many disciplines, including conservation genetics and evolutionary biology. Still, the molecular genetic basis of this phenomenon remains poorly characterised, as knowledge on the mechanistic causes of inbreeding depression and

Inbreeding affects sexual signalling in males but not females of Tenebrio molitor.

Science.gov (United States)

Pölkki, Mari; Krams, Indrikis; Kangassalo, Katariina; Rantala, Markus J

2012-06-23

In many species of animals, individuals advertise their quality with sexual signals to obtain mates. Chemical signals such as volatile pheromones are species specific, and their primary purpose is to influence mate choice by carrying information about the phenotypic and genetic quality of the sender. The deleterious effects of consanguineous mating on individual quality are generally known, whereas the effect of inbreeding on sexual signalling is poorly understood. Here, we tested whether inbreeding reduces the attractiveness of sexual signalling in the mealworm beetle, Tenebrio molitor, by testing the preferences for odours of inbred and outbred (control) individuals of the opposite sex. Females were more attracted to the odours produced by outbred males than the odours produced by inbred males, suggesting that inbreeding reduces the attractiveness of male sexual signalling. However, we did not find any difference between the attractiveness of inbred and outbred female odours, which may indicate that the quality of females is either irrelevant for T. molitor males or quality is not revealed through female odours.

A comparison of two methods for prediction of response and rates of inbreeding in selected populations with the results obtained in two selection experiments

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Verrier Etienne

2005-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Selection programmes are mainly concerned with increasing genetic gain. However, short-term progress should not be obtained at the expense of the within-population genetic variability. Different prediction models for the evolution within a small population of the genetic mean of a selected trait, its genetic variance and its inbreeding have been developed but have mainly been validated through Monte Carlo simulation studies. The purpose of this study was to compare theoretical predictions to experimental results. Two deterministic methods were considered, both grounded on a polygenic additive model. Differences between theoretical predictions and experimental results arise from differences between the true and the assumed genetic model, and from mathematical simplifications applied in the prediction methods. Two sets of experimental lines of chickens were used in this study: the Dutch lines undergoing true truncation mass selection, the other lines (French undergoing mass selection with a restriction on the representation of the different families. This study confirmed, on an experimental basis, that modelling is an efficient approach to make useful predictions of the evolution of selected populations although the basic assumptions considered in the models (polygenic additive model, normality of the distribution, base population at the equilibrium, etc. are not met in reality. The two deterministic methods compared yielded results that were close to those observed in real data, especially when the selection scheme followed the rules of strict mass selection: for instance, both predictions overestimated the genetic gain in the French experiment, whereas both predictions were close to the observed values in the Dutch experiment.

Early-acting inbreeding depression and reproductive success in the highbush blueberry, Vaccinium corymbosum L.

Science.gov (United States)

Krebs, S L; Hancock, J F

1990-06-01

Tetraploid Vaccinium corymbosum genotypes exhibit wide variability in seed set following self- and cross-pollinations. In this paper, a post-zygotic mechanism (seed abortion) under polygenic control is proposed as the basis for fertility differences in this species. A pollen chase experiment indicated that self-pollen tubes fertilize ovules, but are also 'outcompeted' by foreign male gametes in pollen mixtures. Matings among cultivars derived from a pedigree showed a linear decrease in seed number per fruit, and increase in seed abortion, with increasing relatedness among parents. Selfed (S1) progeny from self-fertile parents were largely self-sterile. At zygotic levels of inbreeding of F>0.3 there was little or no fertility, suggesting that an inbreeding threshold regulates reproductive success in V. corymbosum matings. Individuals below the threshold are facultative selfers, while those above it are obligate outcrossers. Inbreeding also caused a decrease in pollen viability, and reduced female fertility more rapidly than male fertility. These phenomena are discussed in terms of two models of genetic load: (1) mutational load - homozygosity for recessive embryolethal or sub-lethal mutations and (2) segregational load - loss of allelic interactions essential for embryonic vigor. Self-infertility in highbush blueberries is placed in the context of 'late-acting' self-incompatibility versus 'early-acting' inbreeding depression in angiosperms.

Heterozygosity and Fixation Index for ABO Gene in Barak Valley Populations vis-a-vis a Few Exotic Populations

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Supriyo CHAKRABORTY

2011-03-01

Full Text Available In a genetic study of 26 human populations including 2 major endogamous populations (Hindus and Muslims of Barak Valley in Assam and 24 exotic populations, observed heterozygosity (Ho, fixation index (F and Panmictic index (P for ABO gene were estimated from gene frequency data to reveal the extent of inbreeding that has taken place in each population during evolution. Observed heterozygosity, a measure of genetic variation, ranged from 0.3254 to 0.6086 in these populations. Expected Hardy-Weinberg heterozygosity of ABO gene was estimated as 0.6666 assuming the occurrence of all the three alleles in equal frequency. Fixation index was the highest in the population of Sudan (51.18% followed by Australia (48.51% and Iceland (38.28% indicating the occurrence of high inbreeding and the presence of more homozygosity in these populations during evolution. But the fixation index was the lowest in the population of South China (8.70% followed by Central Asia (11.82% and Russia (12.96%. It suggested the occurrence of low inbreeding and hence more outbreeding in these populations resulting in the existence of more heterozygosity (high genetic variation in these populations. Panmictic index, a measure of outbreeding, is the opposite of fixation index and it varied from 48.82 (Sudan to 91.30% (South China. The population showing the highest fixation index recorded the lowest panmictic index and vice-versa. In evolutionary context, outbreeding in human populations would be more desirable to reduce the incidence of genetic diseases caused by recessive genes and to enhance heterozygosity for those loci for better adaptation of future generations, possibly at the cost of gradually increasing genetic load in the population.

Cubic-spline interpolation to estimate effects of inbreeding on milk yield in first lactation Holstein cows

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Makram J. Geha

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Milk yield records (305d, 2X, actual milk yield of 123,639 registered first lactation Holstein cows were used to compare linear regression (y = β0 + β1X + e ,quadratic regression, (y = β0 + β1X + β2X2 + e cubic regression (y = β0 + β1X + β2X2 + β3X3 + e and fixed factor models, with cubic-spline interpolation models, for estimating the effects of inbreeding on milk yield. Ten animal models, all with herd-year-season of calving as fixed effect, were compared using the Akaike corrected-Information Criterion (AICc. The cubic-spline interpolation model with seven knots had the lowest AICc, whereas for all those labeled as "traditional", AICc was higher than the best model. Results from fitting inbreeding using a cubic-spline with seven knots were compared to results from fitting inbreeding as a linear covariate or as a fixed factor with seven levels. Estimates of inbreeding effects were not significantly different between the cubic-spline model and the fixed factor model, but were significantly different from the linear regression model. Milk yield decreased significantly at inbreeding levels greater than 9%. Variance component estimates were similar for the three models. Ranking of the top 100 sires with daughter records remained unaffected by the model used.

A major QTL affects temperature sensitive adult lethality and inbreeding depression in life span in Drosophila melanogaster.

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vermeulen, Corneel J.; Bijlsma, R.; Loeschcke, Volker

2008-01-01

of inbreeding effects in specific traits, such as age-specific mortality and life span, provide a good starting point, as a limited set of genes is expected to be involved. Results Here we report on a QTL mapping study on inbreeding related and temperature sensitive lethality in male Drosophila melanogaster...... and the molecular properties of genes that give rise to or modulate its deleterious effects is lacking. These questions warrant the detailed study of genetic loci giving rise to inbreeding depression. However, the complex and polygenic nature of general inbreeding depression makes this a daunting task. Study...... simple, being due mainly to a single recessive QTL on the left arm of chromosome 2. This locus colocalised with a QTL that conditioned variation in female life span, acting as an overdominant locus for this trait. Male life span was additionally affected by variation at the X-chromosome. Conclusion...

Extreme temperatures increase the deleterious consequences of inbreeding under laboratory and semi-natural conditions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kristensen, Torsten Nygård; Barker, J. Stuart F.; Pedersen, Kamilla Sofie

2008-01-01

when compared with non-inbred lines of Drosophila melanogaster under different temperature conditions. Egg-to-adult viability, developmental time and sex ratio of emerging adults are studied under low, intermediate and high temperatures under laboratory as well as semi-natural conditions. The results...... show inbreeding depression for egg-to-adult viability. The level of inbreeding depression is highly dependent on test temperature and is observed only at low and high temperatures. Inbreeding did not affect the developmental time or the sex ratio of emerging adults. However, temperature affected...... the sex ratio with more females relative to males emerging at low temperatures, suggesting that selection against males in pre-adult life stages is stronger at low temperatures. The coefficient of variation (CV) of egg-to-adult viability within and among lines is higher for inbred flies and generally...

Inbreeding coefficients and degree of consanguineous marriages in Spain: a review.

Science.gov (United States)

Fuster, Vicente; Colantonio, Sonia Edith

2003-01-01

The contribution of consanguineous marriages corresponding to uncle-niece or aunt-nephew (C12), first cousin (C22), first cousin once removed (C23), and second cousin (C33) to the inbreeding coefficient (alpha) was analyzed from a sample of Spanish areas and periods. Multiple regressions were performed taking as independent variables the different degrees of consanguinity previously selected (C12, C22, C23, and C33) and as dependent variable the inbreeding coefficient (alpha). According to the results obtained for any degree and period, rural frequencies always surpass urban. However, the pattern is similar in both areas. In the period where consanguinity was more elevated (1890-1929) the C22/C33 ratio increased. Its variation is not due to C22 and C33 changes in the same way. In rural areas, this ratio surpasses the expected value by a factor of 2-3, but in urban areas it was 7-10 times larger, in some cases due to migration. While in rural Spain the C33 frequency was approximately 1.5 times C22, in cities C22 was 1.5 times C33. The best fit among the various types of consanguineous matings and alpha involves a lineal relationship. Regardless of the number of variables contributing significantly to alpha, C22 matings are always present. Moreover, their standardized (beta) coefficients are the highest. The above indicates that this consanguineous relationship conditions the inbreeding coefficient the most. In the period of greater consanguinity, close relationships, uncle-niece C12, and first cousin once removed (C23) make a significant contribution to alpha. In rural Spain second cousins (C33) always significantly determined alpha; however, in cities the inbreeding variation was mainly due to C12 and C23. Copyright 2003 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

An effective rotational mating scheme for inbreeding reduction in captive populations illustrated by the rare sheep breed

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Windig, J.J.; Lansbergen, L.M.T.E.

2008-01-01

Within breeds and other captive populations, the risk of high inbreeding rates and loss of diversity can be high within (small) herds or subpopulations. When exchange of animals between different subpopulations is organised according to a rotational mating scheme, inbreeding rates can be restricted.

Effects of inbreeding and other systematic effects on fertility of Black Forest Draught horses in Germany.

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Müller-Unterberg, Maarit; Wallmann, Sandra; Distl, Ottmar

2017-10-18

The Black Forest Draught horse (BFDH) is an endangered German coldblood breed with its origin in the area of the Black Forest in South Germany. In this retrospective study, the influence of the inbreeding coefficient on foaling rates was investigated using records from ten breeding seasons. Due to the small population size of BFDH, the level of inbreeding is increasing and may have an effect on foaling rates.The data of the present study included all coverings reported for 1024 BFDH mares in the years 2001-2009. These mares were covered by 32 BFDH stallions from the State Stud Marbach. Data from 4534 estrus cycles was used to calculate per cycle foaling rate (CFR). Pedigree data contained all studbook data up to the foundation of the breed as early as 1836. The level of inbreeding of the mare, stallion and expected foal along with other systematic effects on CFR were analysed using a generalized linear mixed model approach. Stallion was employed as a random effect. Systematic fixed effects were month of mating, mating type, age of the mare and stallion, reproductive status of the mare and stallion line of the mare. Inbreeding coefficients of the stallion, mare and expected foal were modelled as linear covariates. The average CFR was 40.9%. The mean inbreeding coefficients of the mares, stallions and expected foals were 7.46, 7.70 and 9.66%. Mating type, age of the mare, reproductive status of the mare and stallion line of the mare had a significant effect. The results showed that the mating type, stallion line of the mare, sire, age and reproductive status of the mare exerted the largest influences on CFR in BFDH. Inbreeding coefficients of the stallion, mare and expected foal were not significantly related with CFR.

RELATION OF INBREEDING OF HORSES OF THOROUGHBRED BREED WITH DEGREE OF HOMOZYGOSITY OF MICROSATELLITE LOCI OF DNA

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Melnyk О.V.

2013-09-01

Full Text Available The degree of homozygosity of some 39 Thoroughbred horses was estimated from microsatellite analysis data. The power of inbreeding was detected towards horse pedigree. We suggested the use of genetic analysis of microsatellite loci of DNA for the determination of actual level of inbreeding.

Evaluation of inbreeding in laying hens by applying optimum genetic contribution and gene flow theory.

Science.gov (United States)

König, S; Tsehay, F; Sitzenstock, F; von Borstel, U U; Schmutz, M; Preisinger, R; Simianer, H

2010-04-01

Due to consistent increases of inbreeding of on average 0.95% per generation in layer populations, selection tools should consider both genetic gain and genetic relationships in the long term. The optimum genetic contribution theory using official estimated breeding values for egg production was applied for 3 different lines of a layer breeding program to find the optimal allocations of hens and sires. Constraints in different scenarios encompassed restrictions related to additive genetic relationships, the increase of inbreeding, the number of selected sires and hens, and the number of selected offspring per mating. All these constraints enabled higher genetic gain up to 10.9% at the same level of additive genetic relationships or in lower relationships at the same gain when compared with conventional selection schemes ignoring relationships. Increases of inbreeding and genetic gain were associated with the number of selected sires. For the lowest level of the allowed average relationship at 10%, the optimal number of sires was 70 and the estimated breeding value for egg production of the selected group was 127.9. At the highest relationship constraint (16%), the optimal number of sires decreased to 15, and the average genetic value increased to 139.7. Contributions from selected sires and hens were used to develop specific mating plans to minimize inbreeding in the following generation by applying a simulated annealing algorithm. The additional reduction of average additive genetic relationships for matings was up to 44.9%. An innovative deterministic approach to estimate kinship coefficients between and within defined selection groups based on gene flow theory was applied to compare increases of inbreeding from random matings with layer populations undergoing selection. Large differences in rates of inbreeding were found, and they underline the necessity to establish selection tools controlling long-term relationships. Furthermore, it was suggested to use

Revealing gene action for production characteristics by inbreeding ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

inbreeding coefficient on the mean of the characters in a two-way selection experiment for the slope (b) and intercept. (Ln (a)) of the ... ln (a) selection group, as well as average daily f-eed intake (Phase I and 2) of the b selection group. Die genewerking wat ..... exposed to natural selection for an extended period under con-.

Presence of inbreeding during a selection experiment with Merino ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Presence of inbreeding during a selection experiment with Merino sheep. GJ Erasmus, AO de Lange, GJ Delport, JJ Olivier. Abstract. No Abstract. Full Text: EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT · DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT · AJOL African Journals Online. HOW TO USE AJOL.

Inbreeding and matrimonial structure in a Pyrenean community (Ansó, Huesca, Spain), 1712-1982.

Science.gov (United States)

Valls, A

1985-03-01

Using data from parish records from 1712 to 1982 in a Spanish Pyrenean village, Ansó, the effects of the raw nuptiality, the types of consanguineous marriages and the rate and evolution of inbreeding on the mating structure have been studied. This structure has been modified in the course of time mostly through the secular variations in the frequency of consanguineous marriages. Recent inbreeding decrease in Ansó is related to the population diminution and cultural changes associated with isolate breakdown.

Demographic consequences of inbreeding and outbreeding in Arnica montana: A field experiment

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Luijten, S.H.; Kery, M.; Oostermeijer, J.G.B.; Den, Nijs H.J.C.M.

2002-01-01

1. The genetic constitution of populations may significantly affect demography. Founder populations or isolated remnants may show inbreeding depression, while established populations can be strongly adapted to the local environment. Gene exchange between populations can lead to better performance if heterozygosity levels are restored (heterosis), or to reduced performance if coadapted gene complexes are disrupted (outbreeding depression). 2. Five populations of the self-incompatible perennial Arnica montana (Asteraceae) were analysed for the demographic consequences of inbreeding and of intra- and interpopulation outcrossing, using both small and large populations as donors for the latter. We analysed seed production and seed weight and monitored growth, survival and flowering of offspring introduced as seeds and as 4-week-old seedlings in a 4-year field experiment. 3. Reduced seed set after selfing was probably due to the self-incompatibility system rather than to inbreeding depression. There was a significant increase for seed set after interpopulation crosses, which resulted from the alleviation of low mate availability in one of the small populations. 4. Significant inbreeding depression was observed for growth rates of plants introduced as seedlings. We found significant heterosis for flowering probability of plants introduced as seeds, but for plants introduced as seedlings, heterosis for seedling size and flowering probability was only marginally significant. Outbreeding depression was not observed. 5. The results of this study are important for reinforcement measures in small, remnant populations. Significant differences among populations for all measured fitness components suggest that reinforcement is best achieved using material from several populations. 6. The observed higher survival of seedlings as compared with seeds suggests that it is better to plant individuals than to sow. Sowing, however, is easier and cheaper, and was more likely to eliminate

Rate of inbreeding and effective population size in four major South ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

huis

Keywords: Dairy cattle, genetic diversity, pedigree analysis ... inbreeding and effective population sizes for the four major South African ... breeding programs and therefore L was computed as an average of generation intervals for the four.

Inbreeding effects on standard metabolic rate investigated at cold, benign and hot temperatures in Drosophila melanogaster

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Palle; Overgaard, Johannes; Loeschcke, Volker

2014-01-01

in replicated lines of inbred and outbred Drosophila melanogaster at stressful low, benign and stressful high temperatures. The lowest measurements of metabolic rate in our study are always associated with the low activity period of the diurnal cycle and these measurements therefore serve as good estimates...... of standard metabolic rate. Due to the potentially added costs of genetic stress in inbred lines we hypothesized that inbred individuals have increased metabolic rate compared to outbred controls and that this is more pronounced at stressful temperatures due to synergistic inbreeding by environment...... interactions. Contrary to our hypothesis we found no significant difference in metabolic rate between inbred and outbred lines and no interaction between inbreeding and temperature. Inbreeding however effected the variance; the variance in metabolic rate was higher between the inbred lines compared...

Genome-wide estimates of coancestry and inbreeding in a closed herd of ancient Iberian pigs.

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María Saura

Full Text Available Maintaining genetic variation and controlling the increase in inbreeding are crucial requirements in animal conservation programs. The most widely accepted strategy for achieving these objectives is to maximize the effective population size by minimizing the global coancestry obtained from a particular pedigree. However, for most natural or captive populations genealogical information is absent. In this situation, microsatellites have been traditionally the markers of choice to characterize genetic variation, and several estimators of genealogical coefficients have been developed using marker data, with unsatisfactory results. The development of high-throughput genotyping techniques states the necessity of reviewing the paradigm that genealogical coancestry is the best parameter for measuring genetic diversity. In this study, the Illumina PorcineSNP60 BeadChip was used to obtain genome-wide estimates of rates of coancestry and inbreeding and effective population size for an ancient strain of Iberian pigs that is now in serious danger of extinction and for which very accurate genealogical information is available (the Guadyerbas strain. Genome-wide estimates were compared with those obtained from microsatellite and from pedigree data. Estimates of coancestry and inbreeding computed from the SNP chip were strongly correlated with genealogical estimates and these correlations were substantially higher than those between microsatellite and genealogical coefficients. Also, molecular coancestry computed from SNP information was a better predictor of genealogical coancestry than coancestry computed from microsatellites. Rates of change in coancestry and inbreeding and effective population size estimated from molecular data were very similar to those estimated from genealogical data. However, estimates of effective population size obtained from changes in coancestry or inbreeding differed. Our results indicate that genome-wide information represents a

[Inbreeding, endogamy and exogamy among relatives of schizophrenia patients].

Science.gov (United States)

Abaskuliev, A A; Skoblo, G V

1975-01-01

An increased frequency of consanguineous marriages among the parents of schizophrenic patients in comparison with the control group of exogenous-somatic patients (infections, trauma) was found. Endogamy among the parents of schizophrenic patients and the control group was practically the same. The data obtained indicate a certain, but not the leading, role of inbreeding in the etiology of schizophrenia.

Towards cheminformatics-based estimation of drug therapeutic index: Predicting the protective index of anticonvulsants using a new quantitative structure-index relationship approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Shangying; Zhang, Peng; Liu, Xin; Qin, Chu; Tao, Lin; Zhang, Cheng; Yang, Sheng Yong; Chen, Yu Zong; Chui, Wai Keung

2016-06-01

The overall efficacy and safety profile of a new drug is partially evaluated by the therapeutic index in clinical studies and by the protective index (PI) in preclinical studies. In-silico predictive methods may facilitate the assessment of these indicators. Although QSAR and QSTR models can be used for predicting PI, their predictive capability has not been evaluated. To test this capability, we developed QSAR and QSTR models for predicting the activity and toxicity of anticonvulsants at accuracy levels above the literature-reported threshold (LT) of good QSAR models as tested by both the internal 5-fold cross validation and external validation method. These models showed significantly compromised PI predictive capability due to the cumulative errors of the QSAR and QSTR models. Therefore, in this investigation a new quantitative structure-index relationship (QSIR) model was devised and it showed improved PI predictive capability that superseded the LT of good QSAR models. The QSAR, QSTR and QSIR models were developed using support vector regression (SVR) method with the parameters optimized by using the greedy search method. The molecular descriptors relevant to the prediction of anticonvulsant activities, toxicities and PIs were analyzed by a recursive feature elimination method. The selected molecular descriptors are primarily associated with the drug-like, pharmacological and toxicological features and those used in the published anticonvulsant QSAR and QSTR models. This study suggested that QSIR is useful for estimating the therapeutic index of drug candidates. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Inbreeding affects locomotor activity in Drosophila melanogaster at different ages

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Manenti, Tommaso; Pertoldi, Cino; Nasiri Moghadam, Neda

2015-01-01

The ability to move is essential for many behavioural traits closely related to fitness. Here we studied the effect of inbreeding on locomotor activity (LA) of Drosophila melanogaster at different ages under both dark and light regimes. We expected to find a decreased LA in inbred lines compared...

A comparison of pedigree- and DNA-based measures for identifying inbreeding depression in the critically endangered Attwater's Prairie-chicken.

Science.gov (United States)

Hammerly, Susan C; Morrow, Michael E; Johnson, Jeff A

2013-11-01

The primary goal of captive breeding programmes for endangered species is to prevent extinction, a component of which includes the preservation of genetic diversity and avoidance of inbreeding. This is typically accomplished by minimizing mean kinship in the population, thereby maintaining equal representation of the genetic founders used to initiate the captive population. If errors in the pedigree do exist, such an approach becomes less effective for minimizing inbreeding depression. In this study, both pedigree- and DNA-based methods were used to assess whether inbreeding depression existed in the captive population of the critically endangered Attwater's Prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus cupido attwateri), a subspecies of prairie grouse that has experienced a significant decline in abundance and concurrent reduction in neutral genetic diversity. When examining the captive population for signs of inbreeding, variation in pedigree-based inbreeding coefficients (f(pedigree)) was less than that obtained from DNA-based methods (f(DNA)). Mortality of chicks and adults in captivity were also positively correlated with parental relatedness (r(DNA)) and f(DNA), respectively, while no correlation was observed with pedigree-based measures when controlling for additional variables such as age, breeding facility, gender and captive/release status. Further, individual homozygosity by loci (HL) and parental rDNA values were positively correlated with adult mortality in captivity and the occurrence of a lethal congenital defect in chicks, respectively, suggesting that inbreeding may be a contributing factor increasing the frequency of this condition among Attwater's Prairie-chickens. This study highlights the importance of using DNA-based methods to better inform management decisions when pedigrees are incomplete or errors may exist due to uncertainty in pairings. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Random inbreeding, isonymy, and population isolates in Argentina.

Science.gov (United States)

Dipierri, José; Rodríguez-Larralde, Alvaro; Barrai, Italo; Camelo, Jorge López; Redomero, Esperanza Gutiérrez; Rodríguez, Concepción Alonso; Ramallo, Virginia; Bronberg, Rubén; Alfaro, Emma

2014-07-01

Population isolates are an important tool in identifying and mapping genes of Mendelian diseases and complex traits. The geographical identification of isolates represents a priority from a genetic and health care standpoint. The purpose of this study is to analyze the spatial distribution of consanguinity by random isonymy (F ST) in Argentina and its relationship with the isolates previously identified in the country. F ST was estimated from the surname distribution of 22.6 million electors registered for the year 2001 in the 24 provinces, 5 geographical regions, and 510 departments of the country. Statistically significant spatial clustering of F ST was determined using the SaTScan V5.1 software. F ST exhibited a marked regional and departamental variation, showing the highest values towards the North and West of Argentina. The clusters of high consanguinity by random isonymy followed the same distribution. Recognized Argentinean genetic isolates are mainly localized at the north of the country, in clusters of high inbreeding. Given the availability of listings of surnames in high-capacity storage devices for different countries, estimating F ST from them can provide information on inbreeding for all levels of administrative subdivisions, to be used as a demographic variable for the identification of isolates within the country for public health purposes.

Inbreeding in the Danish populations of five Nordic sheep breeds

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, Anders Christian; Norberg, Elise

2008-01-01

In Denmark there are small populations of five Nordic sheep breeds, two of which are Danish in origin. The purpose of this study was to estimate trends in inbreeding for these breeds. All five breeds have been recording pedigrees for decades, so pedigree completeness is adequate. The rate of inbr...

Genetic variation of inbreeding depression among floral and fitness traits in Silene nutans

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thiele, Jan; Hansen, Thomas Møller; Siegismund, Hans Redlef

2010-01-01

The magnitude and variation of inbreeding depression (ID) within populations is important for the evolution and maintenance of mixed mating systems. We studied ID and its genetic variation in a range of floral and fitness traits in a small and large population of the perennial herb Silene nutans......, using controlled pollinations in a fully factorial North Carolina II design. Floral traits and early fitness traits, that is seed mass and germination rate, were not much affected by inbreeding (delta0.4). Lack of genetic correlations indicated that ID in floral, early and late traits is genetically...... was statistically significant in most floral and all seed traits, but not in late fitness traits. However, some paternal families had delta...

Inbreeding and its effect on some productive traits in buffaloes of South Iran

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B. Mahmoodi

2010-02-01

Full Text Available The buffalo is a native animal of Iran and there were 500,000 buffaloes in Iran that over 80 per cent of its population concentrated in the north and north- west (Azerbaijan province and 18 per cent in the south (Khuzestan province of the country. Buffaloes reread in rural condition as multi purpose animals in Khuzestan. For mating, farmer use owns herd sire also artificial insemination is limited in the rural condition that may be inbred animals so affect the production performance. The aim of this investigation was estimate the inbreeding coefficient and its affect on some production performance. Data of 200 herds were used from the record sheets of herds under recording program of Animal Breeding Center during period 1990 to 2002 in the Khuzestan province. These results showed mostly herds only one sir and rarely two sires have been used. Inbreeding coefficient was 25 percent in some progeny and high-inbred buffaloes had a low performance. According to results of this study it could be concluded that farmers to avoid inbreeding should use other herd sire and artificial insemination also practical recording scheme and genetically selection to genetic improvement should be included in buffaloes of Iran.

[Genetic isolates and inbreeding customs in three rural municipalities from Honduras].

Science.gov (United States)

Herrera-Paz, Edwin Francisco

2016-01-01

The isonymic method has been amply used to assess the approximate genetic structure of human communities. The objective of the study was to evaluate the magnitude of genetic isolation and inbreeding customs in 57 communities from three rural municipalities of Honduras using isonymy techniques. The list of 408 different surnames from 20712 voters registered in the national electoral organism, residing in the 57 Honduran communities, was used for this study. For each community, random (IR), non-random (IN), and total (IT) isonymy values were calculated in order to assess inbreeding coefficients FST, FIS and FIT. High consanguinity due to isolation and to endogamous customs was unveiled in many communities. Significant deviation from the exogamous behavior typical of many human populations was observed in the three studied municipalities, when compared to other Honduran populations. The studied communities present high consanguinity due to isolation, ethnic segregation and/or endogamous customs.

A case of inbreeding in the African Wild Dog Lycaon pictus in the Kruger National Park

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A. Reich

1978-09-01

Full Text Available An observed case of inbreeding in a pack ot wild dogs Lycaon pictus in the Kruger National Park, Republic of South Africa, provides evidence for the phenomenon of dominance reversal in this species. This is believed to be the first recorded instance of inbreeding in Lycaon. Emigration of subordinate females from established packs of wild dogs has been documented in the Serengeti National Park and Ngorongoro Conservation Area in northern Tanzania, as well as in the Kruger National Park. However, the newly subordinate (ex-dominant female in the pack in which inbreeding has occurred has not emigrated in the 16 months since the change in her status. A possible explanation for this behaviour is given. As a result of this reversal, the pack contains at least two females capable of breeding, the subordinate of which is at least two years older than the dominant. This is considered the first record of such a breeding structure in Lycaon.

Rehabilitation after stroke: predictive power of Barthel Index versus a cognitive and a motor index

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Engberg, A; Bentzen, L; Garde, B

1995-01-01

The aim of the present study was to investigate the predictive power of ratings of Barthel Index at Day 40 post stroke, compared with and/or combined with simultaneous ratings from a mobility scale (EG motor index) and a rather simple cognitive test scale (CT50). The parameter to be individually...

Heterotic effects in f/sub 1s/ and inbreeding depression in f/sub 2/ hybrids of sunflower

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Memon, S.; Baloch, M.J.; Baloch, G.M.

2015-01-01

genetically diverse female lines of sunflower were crossed with male testers to get heterotic hybrids. studies were carried-out during 2008-2010 at experiment filed of agriculture research institute, tandojam, sindh, pakistan. six female lines like t-4-0319, pac-0505, ho-i, hysun-33, peshawar-93 and cms-03 and three testers i.e., pac-0306, pac-64-a and sf-187 were crossed in a line * tester mating design, thus 18 f1 and f2 hybrids were developed for evaluation of heterosis and inbreeding depression for days to initial flowering, days to maturity, leaves/plant, plant height (cm), head diameter (cm), 1000-achene weight (g), seed yield kg/ha and oil yield kg/ha. the experiment was conducted in a randomised completeb lock design with four replications. the analysis of variance revealed significant differences among parents, f1s and f2 hybrids for all the traits studied. the existence of significant genetic variability among the plant traits is particularly useful because variations in these traits would allow further improvement in sunflower seed yield and oil traits. the f1 hybrids ho-i * pac-0306 and ho-i pa * c-64-a exhibited desirable negative mid and better parent heterosis for days to initial flowering, days to maturity and plant height. these hybrids also manifested desirable positive heterotic effects for leaves/plant, head diameter, 1000-achene.s weight, seed yield and oil yield. inbreeding depression for phenological, seed yield and oil traits showed that desirable high inbreeding depression was observed in hybrids ho-i * p*ac-64-a, ho-i * pac-0306 and ho-i * sf-187 for days to initial flowering, similarly t-4-0319 * pac-0306, pac-0505 ± sf-187 and ho-i * pac-64-a explicated maximum but rewarding inbreeding depression for days to maturity. the f2 hybrids hysun-33 * sf-187 and peshawer-93 * pac-64-a may be the most desirable ones in the sense that they recorded comparatively moderate inbreeding depression with enough number of leaves to be productive if f2

Slow inbred lines of Drosophila melanogaster express as much inbreeding depression as fast inbred lines under semi-natural conditions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kristensen, Torsten Nygård; Knudsen, Morten Ravn; Loeschcke, Volker

2011-01-01

Selection may reduce the deleterious consequences of inbreeding. This may be due to purging of recessive deleterious alleles or balancing selection favouring heterozygote offspring. Such selection is expected to be more efficient at slower compared to at faster rates of inbreeding. In this study ...

The PAPAS index: a novel index for the prediction of hepatitis C-related fibrosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Ozel, Banu D; Poyrazoğlu, Orhan K; Karaman, Ahmet; Karaman, Hatice; Altinkaya, Engin; Sevinç, Eylem; Zararsiz, Gökmen

2015-08-01

Several noninvasive tests have been developed to determine the degree of hepatic fibrosis in patients with chronic hepatitis C (CHC) without performing liver biopsy. This study aimed to determine the performance of the PAPAS (Platelet/Age/Phosphatase/AFP/AST) index in patients with CHC for the prediction of significant fibrosis and cirrhosis and to compare it with other noninvasive tests. To date, no study has evaluated the application of the PAPAS index in CHC-associated liver fibrosis. This retrospective study included 137 consecutive patients with CHC who had undergone a percutaneous liver biopsy before treatment. The aspartate aminotransferase/platelet ratio (APRI), aspartate aminotransferase/alanine transaminase ratio (AAR), age-platelet index (API), FIB4, cirrhosis discriminate score (CDS), the Göteborg University cirrhosis index (GUCI), and PAPAS were calculated and compared with the diagnostic accuracies of all fibrosis indices between the groups F0-F2 (no-mild fibrosis) versus F3-F6 (significant fibrosis) and F0-F4 (no cirrhosis) versus F5-F6 (cirrhosis). To predict significant fibrosis, the area under curve (95% confidence interval) for FIB4 was 0.727 followed by GUCI (0.721), PAPAS≈APRI≈CDS (0.716), and API (0.68). To predict cirrhosis, the area under curve (95% confidence interval) for FIB4 was calculated to be 0.735, followed by GUCI (0.723), PAPAS≈APRI≈CDS≈(0.71), and API (0.66). No statistically significant difference was observed among these predictors to exclude both significant fibrosis and cirrhosis (P>0.05). The diagnostic capability of the PAPAS index has moderate efficiency and was not superior to other fibrosis markers for the identification of fibrosis in CHC patients. There is a need for more comprehensive prospective studies to help determine the diagnostic value of PAPAS for liver fibrosis.

How much gene flow is needed to avoid inbreeding depression in wild tiger populations?

Science.gov (United States)

Kenney, John; Allendorf, Fred W; McDougal, Charles; Smith, James L D

2014-08-22

The number and size of tiger populations continue to decline owing to habitat loss, habitat fragmentation and poaching of tigers and their prey. As a result, tiger populations have become small and highly structured. Current populations have been isolated since the early 1970s or for approximately seven generations. The objective of this study is to explore how inbreeding may be affecting the persistence of remaining tiger populations and how dispersal, either natural or artificial, may reduce the potentially detrimental effect of inbreeding depression. We developed a tiger simulation model and used published levels of genetic load in mammals to simulate inbreeding depression. Following a 50 year period of population isolation, we introduced one to four dispersing male tigers per generation to explore how gene flow from nearby populations may reduce the negative impact of inbreeding depression. For the smallest populations, even four dispersing male tigers per generation did not increase population viability, and the likelihood of extinction is more than 90% within 30 years. Unless habitat connectivity is restored or animals are artificially introduced in the next 70 years, medium size wild populations are also likely to go extinct, with only four to five of the largest wild tiger populations likely to remain extant in this same period without intervention. To reduce the risk of local extinction, habitat connectivity must be pursued concurrently with efforts to increase population size (e.g. enhance habitat quality, increase habitat availability). It is critical that infrastructure development, dam construction and other similar projects are planned appropriately so that they do not erode the extent or quality of habitat for these populations so that they can truly serve as future source populations. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

The Relationship between Runs of Homozygosity and Inbreeding in Jersey Cattle under Selection.

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Eui-Soo Kim

Full Text Available Inbreeding is often an inevitable outcome of strong directional artificial selection but on average it reduces population fitness with increased frequency of recessive deleterious alleles. Runs of homozygosity (ROH representing genomic autozygosity that occur from mating between selected and genomically related individuals may be able to reveal the regions affecting fitness. To examine the influence of genomic autozygosity on fitness, we used a genome-wide association test to evaluate potential negative correlations between ROH and daughter pregnancy rate (DPR or somatic cell score (SCS in US Jersey cattle. In addition, relationships between changes of local ROH and inbreeding coefficients (F were assessed to locate genomic regions with increased inbreeding. Despite finding some decreases in fertility associated with incremental increases in F, most emerging local ROH were not significantly associated with DPR or SCS. Furthermore, the analyses of ROH could be approximated with the most frequent haplotype(s, including the associations of ROH and F or traits. The analysis of the most frequent haplotype revealed that associations of ROH and fertility could be accounted for by the additive genetic effect on the trait. Thus, we suggest that a change of autozygosity is more likely to demonstrate footprints of selected haplotypes for production rather than highlight the possible increased local autozygosity of a recessive detrimental allele resulting from the mating between closely related animals in Jersey cattle.

Population structure and genomic inbreeding in nine Swiss dairy cattle populations.

Science.gov (United States)

Signer-Hasler, Heidi; Burren, Alexander; Neuditschko, Markus; Frischknecht, Mirjam; Garrick, Dorian; Stricker, Christian; Gredler, Birgit; Bapst, Beat; Flury, Christine

2017-11-07

Domestication, breed formation and intensive selection have resulted in divergent cattle breeds that likely exhibit their own genomic signatures. In this study, we used genotypes from 27,612 autosomal single nucleotide polymorphisms to characterize population structure based on 9214 sires representing nine Swiss dairy cattle populations: Brown Swiss (BS), Braunvieh (BV), Original Braunvieh (OB), Holstein (HO), Red Holstein (RH), Swiss Fleckvieh (SF), Simmental (SI), Eringer (ER) and Evolèner (EV). Genomic inbreeding (F ROH ) and signatures of selection were determined by calculating runs of homozygosity (ROH). The results build the basis for a better understanding of the genetic development of Swiss dairy cattle populations and highlight differences between the original populations (i.e. OB, SI, ER and EV) and those that have become more popular in Switzerland as currently reflected by their larger populations (i.e. BS, BV, HO, RH and SF). The levels of genetic diversity were highest and lowest in the SF and BS breeds, respectively. Based on F ST values, we conclude that, among all pairwise comparisons, BS and HO (0.156) differ more than the other pairs of populations. The original Swiss cattle populations OB, SI, ER, and EV are clearly genetically separated from the Swiss cattle populations that are now more common and represented by larger numbers of cows. Mean levels of F ROH ranged from 0.027 (ER) to 0.091 (BS). Three of the original Swiss cattle populations, ER (F ROH : 0.027), OB (F ROH : 0.029), and SI (F ROH : 0.039), showed low levels of genomic inbreeding, whereas it was much higher in EV (F ROH : 0.074). Private signatures of selection for the original Swiss cattle populations are reported for BTA4, 5, 11 and 26. The low levels of genomic inbreeding observed in the original Swiss cattle populations ER, OB and SI compared to the other breeds are explained by a lesser use of artificial insemination and greater use of natural service. Natural service

Extinction of canid populations by inbreeding depression under stochastic environments in Southwestern Goiás State: a simulation study

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Flávia Melo Rodrigues

2007-01-01

Full Text Available A frequently addressed question in conservation biology is what is the chance of survival for a population for a given number of years under certain conditions of habitat loss and human activities. This can be estimated through an integrated analysis of genetic, demographic and landscape processes, which allows the prediction of more realistic and precise models of population persistence. In this study, we modeled extinction in stochastic environments under inbreeding depression for two canid species, the maned wolf (Chrysocyon brachiurus and the crab-eating fox (Cerdocyon thous, in southwest Goiás State. Genetic parameters were obtained from six microsattelite loci (Short Tandem Repeats - STR, which allowed estimates of inbreeding levels and of the effective population size under a stepwise mutation model based on heterozygosis. The simulations included twelve alternative scenarios with varying rates of habitat loss, magnitude of population fluctuation and initial inbreeding levels. ANOVA analyses of the simulation results showed that times to extinction were better explained by demographic parameters. Times to extinction ranged from 352 to 844, in the worst and best scenario, respectively, for the large-bodied maned wolf. For the small-bodied crab-eating fox, these same estimates were 422 and 974 years. Simulations results are within the expectation based on knowledge about species' life history, genetics and demography. They suggest that populations can persist through a reasonable time (i.e., more than 200 years even under the worst demographic scenario. Our analyses are a starting point for a more focused evaluation of persistence in these populations. Our results can be used in future research aiming at obtaining better estimates of parameters that may, in turn, be used to achieve more appropriate and realist population viability models at a regional scale.

Prediction of monthly average global solar radiation based on statistical distribution of clearness index

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ayodele, T.R.; Ogunjuyigbe, A.S.O.

2015-01-01

In this paper, probability distribution of clearness index is proposed for the prediction of global solar radiation. First, the clearness index is obtained from the past data of global solar radiation, then, the parameters of the appropriate distribution that best fit the clearness index are determined. The global solar radiation is thereafter predicted from the clearness index using inverse transformation of the cumulative distribution function. To validate the proposed method, eight years global solar radiation data (2000–2007) of Ibadan, Nigeria are used to determine the parameters of appropriate probability distribution for clearness index. The calculated parameters are then used to predict the future monthly average global solar radiation for the following year (2008). The predicted values are compared with the measured values using four statistical tests: the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), MAE (Mean Absolute Error), MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) and the coefficient of determination (R"2). The proposed method is also compared to the existing regression models. The results show that logistic distribution provides the best fit for clearness index of Ibadan and the proposed method is effective in predicting the monthly average global solar radiation with overall RMSE of 0.383 MJ/m"2/day, MAE of 0.295 MJ/m"2/day, MAPE of 2% and R"2 of 0.967. - Highlights: • Distribution of clearnes index is proposed for prediction of global solar radiation. • The clearness index is obtained from the past data of global solar radiation. • The parameters of distribution that best fit the clearness index are determined. • Solar radiation is predicted from the clearness index using inverse transformation. • The method is effective in predicting the monthly average global solar radiation.

Inbreeding in Southeastern Spain : The Impact of Geography and Demography on Marital Mobility and Marital Distance Patterns (1900-1969).

Science.gov (United States)

Calderón, R; Hernández, C L; García-Varela, G; Masciarelli, D; Cuesta, P

2018-03-01

In this paper, the structure of a southeastern Spanish population was studied for the first time with respect to its inbreeding patterns and its relationship with demographic and geographic factors. Data on consanguineous marriages (up to second cousins) from 1900 to 1969 were taken from ecclesiastic dispensations. Our results confirm that the patterns and trends of inbreeding in the study area are consistent with those previously observed in most non-Cantabrian Spanish populations. The rate of consanguineous marriages was apparently stable between 1900 and 1935 and then sharply decreased since 1940, which coincides with industrialization in Spain. A marked departure from Hardy-Weinberg expectations (0.25) in the ratio of first cousin (M22) to second cousin (M33) marriages in the study population (0.88) was observed. The high levels of endogamy (>80%) and its significant steadiness throughout the twentieth century is noteworthy. Accordingly, our results show that exogamous marriages were not only poorly represented but also that this reduced mobility (relationships between population size and consanguinity rates and inbreeding fit power-law distributions. A significant positive correlation was observed between inbreeding and elevation. Many Spanish populations have experienced a prolonged and considerable isolation across generations, which has led to high proportions of historical and local endogamy that is associated, in general, with high [Formula: see text] values. Thus, assessing genomic inbreeding using runs of homozygosity (ROH) in current Spanish populations could be an additional pertinent strategy for obtaining a more refined perspective regarding the population history inferred from the extent and frequency of ROH regions.

A Review of the Implications of Heterozygosity and Inbreeding on Germplasm Biodiversity and Its Conservation in the Silkworm, Bombyx mori

Science.gov (United States)

Jingade, A.H.; Vijayan, K.; Somasundaram, P.; Srivasababu, G.K.; Kamble, C.K.

2011-01-01

Silkworm genebanks assume paramount importance as the reservoirs of biodiversity and source of alleles that can be easily retrieved for genetic enhancement of popular breeds. More than 4000 Bombyx mori L (Lepidoptera: Bombycidae) strains are currently available and these strains are maintained through continuous sibling mating. This repeated sibling mating makes the populations of each strain more homozygous, but leads to loss of unique and valuable genes through the process of inbreeding depression. Hence, it is essential to maintain a minimal degree of heterozygosity within the population of each silkworm strain, especially in the traditional geographic strains, to avoid such loss. As a result, accurate estimation of genetic diversity is becoming more important in silkworm genetic resources conservation. Application of molecular markers help estimate genetic diversity much more accurately than that of morphological traits. Since a minimal amount of heterozygosity in each silkworm strain is essential for better conservation by avoiding inbreeding depression, this article overviews both theoretical and practical importance of heterozygosity together with impacts of inbreeding depression and the merits and demerits of neutral molecular markers for measurements of both heterozygosity and inbreeding depression in the silkworm Bombyx mori. PMID:21521139

Sperm quality but not relatedness predicts sperm competition success in threespine sticklebacks (Gasterosteus aculeatus).

Science.gov (United States)

Mehlis, Marion; Rahn, Anna K; Bakker, Theo C M

2015-04-26

Mating between close relatives often leads to a reduction of an individual's fitness, due to an increased expression of deleterious alleles. Thus, in many animal taxa pre- as well as postcopulatory inbreeding avoidance mechanisms have evolved. An increased risk of inbreeding and hence a loss of genetic variation may occur during founder events as in most cases only few individuals establish a new population. The threespine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) is a small externally fertilizing fish species subject to strong sperm competition. Sticklebacks inhabit both marine and freshwater environments and anadromous populations have repeatedly established new genetically less diverse freshwater populations. Previous studies showed that anadromous sticklebacks strongly suffer from inbreeding depression and when given the choice females prefer to mate with unrelated males. The present study aimed to address whether there exists a postcopulatory inbreeding avoidance mechanism solely based on sperm-egg interactions in sperm competition experiments. We used F1 individuals that originated either from a large, genetically heterogeneous anadromous population or from a small, genetically less diverse freshwater population. For each population, eggs of two different females were in vitro fertilized by the same two males' sperm in a paired study design. In the main experiment one male was the female's full-sib brother and in the control experiment all individuals were unrelated. The results revealed that fertilization success was independent of relatedness in both populations suggesting a general lack of a postcopulatory inbreeding avoidance mechanism. Instead, male quality (i.e. sperm morphology) predicted paternity success during competitive fertilization trials. In sticklebacks, there is no evidence for postcopulatory inbreeding avoidance. Sperm morphology predicted paternity instead, thus sperm quality traits are under strong sexual selection, presumably driven by the

Pedigrees or markers: Which are better in estimating relatedness and inbreeding coefficient?

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Jinliang

2016-02-01

Individual inbreeding coefficient (F) and pairwise relatedness (r) are fundamental parameters in population genetics and have important applications in diverse fields such as human medicine, forensics, plant and animal breeding, conservation and evolutionary biology. Traditionally, both parameters are calculated from pedigrees, but are now increasingly estimated from genetic marker data. Conceptually, a pedigree gives the expected F and r values, FP and rP, with the expectations being taken (hypothetically) over an infinite number of individuals with the same pedigree. In contrast, markers give the realised (actual) F and r values at the particular marker loci of the particular individuals, FM and rM. Both pedigree (FP, rP) and marker (FM, rM) estimates can be used as inferences of genomic inbreeding coefficients FG and genomic relatedness rG, which are the underlying quantities relevant to most applications (such as estimating inbreeding depression and heritability) of F and r. In the pre-genomic era, it was widely accepted that pedigrees are much better than markers in delineating FG and rG, and markers should better be used to validate, amend and construct pedigrees rather than to replace them. Is this still true in the genomic era when genome-wide dense SNPs are available? In this simulation study, I showed that genomic markers can yield much better estimates of FG and rG than pedigrees when they are numerous (say, 10(4) SNPs) under realistic situations (e.g. genome and population sizes). Pedigree estimates are especially poor for species with a small genome, where FG and rG are determined to a large extent by Mendelian segregations and may thus deviate substantially from their expectations (FP and rP). Simulations also confirmed that FM, when estimated from many SNPs, can be much more powerful than FP for detecting inbreeding depression in viability. However, I argue that pedigrees cannot be replaced completely by genomic SNPs, because the former allows for

Effectively Indexing Uncertain Moving Objects for Predictive Queries

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zhang, Meihui; Chen, Su; Jensen, Christian Søndergaard

2009-01-01

in more complex and stochastic ways. This paper investigates the possibility of a marriage between moving-object indexing and probabilistic object modelling. Given the distributions of the current locations and velocities of moving objects, we devise an efficient inference method for the prediction...

The Economic Value of Predicting Stock Index Returns and Volatility

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Marquering, W.; Verbeek, M.J.C.M.

2000-01-01

In this paper, we analyze the economic value of predicting index returns as well as volatility. On the basis of fairly simple linear models, estimated recursively, we produce genuine out-of-sample forecasts for the return on the S&P 500 index and its volatility. Using monthly data from 1954-1998, we

Fitness drivers in the threatened Dianthus guliae Janka (Caryophyllaceae): disentangling effects of growth context, maternal influence and inbreeding depression.

Science.gov (United States)

Gargano, D; Gullo, T; Bernardo, L

2011-01-01

We studied inbreeding depression, growth context and maternal influence as constraints to fitness in the self-compatible, protandrous Dianthus guliae Janka, a threatened Italian endemic. We performed hand-pollinations to verify outcomes of self- and cross-fertilisation over two generations, and grew inbred and outbred D. guliae offspring under different conditions - in pots, a common garden and field conditions (with/without nutrient addition). The environment influenced juvenile growth and flowering likelihood/rate, but had little effect on inbreeding depression. Significant interactions among genetic and environmental factors influenced female fertility. Overall, genetic factors strongly affected both early (seed mass, seed germination, early survival) and late (seed/ovule ratio) life-history traits. After the first pollination experiment, we detected higher mortality in the selfed progeny, which is possibly a consequence of inbreeding depression caused by over-expression of early-acting deleterious alleles. The second pollination induced a strong loss of reproductive fitness (seed production, seed mass) in inbred D. guliae offspring, regardless of the pollination treatment (selfing/crossing); hence, a strong (genetic) maternal influence constrained early life-history traits of the second generation. Based on current knowledge, we conclude that self-compatibility does not prevent the detrimental effects of inbreeding in D. guliae populations, and may increase the severe extinction risk if out-crossing rates decrease. © 2010 German Botanical Society and The Royal Botanical Society of the Netherlands.

Construction of prediction intervals for Palmer Drought Severity Index using bootstrap

Science.gov (United States)

Beyaztas, Ufuk; Bickici Arikan, Bugrayhan; Beyaztas, Beste Hamiye; Kahya, Ercan

2018-04-01

In this study, we propose an approach based on the residual-based bootstrap method to obtain valid prediction intervals using monthly, short-term (three-months) and mid-term (six-months) drought observations. The effects of North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillation indexes on the constructed prediction intervals are also examined. Performance of the proposed approach is evaluated for the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) obtained from Konya closed basin located in Central Anatolia, Turkey. The finite sample properties of the proposed method are further illustrated by an extensive simulation study. Our results revealed that the proposed approach is capable of producing valid prediction intervals for future PDSI values.

Heterosis and inbreeding depression for panicle characters in crosses involving induced mutants of aromatic rice

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hasib, K.M.

2001-01-01

Twelve crosses of aromatic rice utilizing four γ-ray induced mutants 88-8-3 and 33-9-15 of Tulaipanja and 124-17-4 and 21-6-1 of Gobindabhog and three basmati varieties were evaluated for heterosis and inbreeding depression for different panicle characters. All the hybrids except the two hybrids of 124-17-4 with Pakistan Basmati and Pusa Basmati I manifested significantly positive heterosis for grain yield panicle -1 . High magnitude of heterosis coupled with positive inbreeding depression for panicle length, secondary branches panicle -1 , spikelet number panicle -1 , panicle weight and grain yield panicle -1 in several crosses indicating the presence of nonadditive gene action. The results indicate the scope of exploiting heterosis in aromatic rice. (author)

Development of an Integrated Moisture Index for predicting species composition

Science.gov (United States)

Louis R. Iverson; Charles T. Scott; Martin E. Dale; Anantha Prasad

1996-01-01

A geographic information system (GIS) approach was used to develop an Integrated Moisture Index (IMI), which was used to predict species composition for Ohio forests. Several landscape features (a slope-aspect shading index, cumulative flow of water downslope, curvature of the landscape, and the water-holding capacity of the soil) were derived from elevation and soils...

Predicting the Direction of Stock Market Index Movement Using an Optimized Artificial Neural Network Model.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mingyue Qiu

Full Text Available In the business sector, it has always been a difficult task to predict the exact daily price of the stock market index; hence, there is a great deal of research being conducted regarding the prediction of the direction of stock price index movement. Many factors such as political events, general economic conditions, and traders' expectations may have an influence on the stock market index. There are numerous research studies that use similar indicators to forecast the direction of the stock market index. In this study, we compare two basic types of input variables to predict the direction of the daily stock market index. The main contribution of this study is the ability to predict the direction of the next day's price of the Japanese stock market index by using an optimized artificial neural network (ANN model. To improve the prediction accuracy of the trend of the stock market index in the future, we optimize the ANN model using genetic algorithms (GA. We demonstrate and verify the predictability of stock price direction by using the hybrid GA-ANN model and then compare the performance with prior studies. Empirical results show that the Type 2 input variables can generate a higher forecast accuracy and that it is possible to enhance the performance of the optimized ANN model by selecting input variables appropriately.

Predicting the Direction of Stock Market Index Movement Using an Optimized Artificial Neural Network Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Qiu, Mingyue; Song, Yu

2016-01-01

In the business sector, it has always been a difficult task to predict the exact daily price of the stock market index; hence, there is a great deal of research being conducted regarding the prediction of the direction of stock price index movement. Many factors such as political events, general economic conditions, and traders' expectations may have an influence on the stock market index. There are numerous research studies that use similar indicators to forecast the direction of the stock market index. In this study, we compare two basic types of input variables to predict the direction of the daily stock market index. The main contribution of this study is the ability to predict the direction of the next day's price of the Japanese stock market index by using an optimized artificial neural network (ANN) model. To improve the prediction accuracy of the trend of the stock market index in the future, we optimize the ANN model using genetic algorithms (GA). We demonstrate and verify the predictability of stock price direction by using the hybrid GA-ANN model and then compare the performance with prior studies. Empirical results show that the Type 2 input variables can generate a higher forecast accuracy and that it is possible to enhance the performance of the optimized ANN model by selecting input variables appropriately.

Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) Index

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Madden Julian Oscillation index (MJO) is a dataset that allows evaluation of the strength and phase of the MJO during the dataset...

Predicted impact and evaluation of North Carolina's phosphorus indexing tool.

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, Amy M; Osmond, Deanna L; Hodges, Steven C

2005-01-01

Increased concern about potential losses of phosphorus (P) from agricultural fields receiving animal waste has resulted in the implementation of new state and federal regulations related to nutrient management. In response to strengthened nutrient management standards that require consideration of P, North Carolina has developed a site-specific P indexing system called the Phosphorus Loss Assessment Tool (PLAT) to predict relative amounts of potential P loss from agricultural fields. The purpose of this study was to apply the PLAT index on farms throughout North Carolina in an attempt to predict the percentage and types of farms that will be forced to change management practices due to implementation of new regulations. Sites from all 100 counties were sampled, with the number of samples taken from each county depending on the proportion of the state's agricultural land that occurs in that county. Results showed that approximately 8% of producers in the state will be required to apply animal waste or inorganic fertilizer on a P rather than nitrogen basis, with the percentage increasing for farmers who apply animal waste (approximately 27%). The PLAT index predicted the greatest amounts of P loss from sites in the Coastal Plain region of North Carolina and from sites receiving poultry waste. Loss of dissolved P through surface runoff tended to be greater than other loss pathways and presents an area of concern as no best management practices (BMPs) currently exist for the reduction of in-field dissolved P. The PLAT index predicted the areas in the state that are known to be disproportionately vulnerable to P loss due to histories of high P applications, high densities of animal units, or soil type and landscapes that are most susceptible to P loss.

Predictive Index The Incidence Of Tuberculosis Children In South Kalimantan Province

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bahrul Ilmi

2015-08-01

Full Text Available The research objective to formulate predictive index of Tuberculosis Children in South Kalimantan province. Research methods combined mixed methods with a combination of research model Sequential Exploratory Design qualitative approach to support quantitative and centered on quantitative Sugiono 2012 case control design. The number of qualitative sample was 16 respondents to interviews and 48 respondents for FGD. The number of quantitative research sample was 216 consisted of 62 cases and 154 controls. Qualitative sampling by purposive sampling and quantitative Multi-stage Cluster random sampling on 3 stages. The analysis technique used is descriptive qualitative and Confirmatory Factor Analysis Confirmatory Factor Analysis measure the latent of variables by using path analysis path analysis with the program Linear Structural Relationships LISREL. The results showed a positive effect on the socio-cultural environment and significantly associated with the incidence of Tuberculosis Children. While the physical environment of the house positively and significantly with biological environments and the incidence of Tuberculosis Children and immunization and nutrition status of children positively and significantly to the incidence of Tuberculosis of the Child as well as to the biological environment positive and significant effect on the incidence of TB Children. Formulation Predictive Index of Tuberculosis Children in South Kalimantan province. is index 019 Physical Environment Home 044 053 Biological Environment Social Environment Culture 019 Status Immunization and Child Nutrition. The results of all the R-square value indicates that all of the R-square values 0.5. This means that a predictive model of TB Kids index has met the required Goodness of Fit. New findings from research of this dissertation are 1. Research Variable of social networks social support and collective efficacy were associated with the incidence of Tuberculosis Children. 2

A Bimodel Algorithm with Data-Divider to Predict Stock Index

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Zhaoyue Wang

2018-01-01

Full Text Available There is not yet reliable software for stock prediction, because most experts of this area have been trying to predict an exact stock index. Considering that the fluctuation of a stock index usually is no more than 1% in a day, the error between the forecasted and the actual values should be no more than 0.5%. It is too difficult to realize. However, forecasting whether a stock index will rise or fall does not need to be so exact a numerical value. A few scholars noted the fact, but their systems do not yet work very well because different periods of a stock have different inherent laws. So, we should not depend on a single model or a set of parameters to solve the problem. In this paper, we developed a data-divider to divide a set of historical stock data into two parts according to rising period and falling period, training, respectively, two neural networks optimized by a GA. Above all, the data-divider enables us to avoid the most difficult problem, the effect of unexpected news, which could hardly be predicted. Experiments show that the accuracy of our method increases 20% compared to those of traditional methods.

The c-index is not proper for the evaluation of $t$-year predicted risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Blanche, Paul; Kattan, Michael W; Gerds, Thomas A

2018-02-16

We show that the widely used concordance index for time to event outcome is not proper when interest is in predicting a $t$-year risk of an event, for example 10-year mortality. In the situation with a fixed prediction horizon, the concordance index can be higher for a misspecified model than for a correctly specified model. Impropriety happens because the concordance index assesses the order of the event times and not the order of the event status at the prediction horizon. The time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve does not have this problem and is proper in this context.

Prediction of melanoma metastasis by the Shields index based on lymphatic vessel density

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Metcalfe Chris

2010-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Melanoma usually presents as an initial skin lesion without evidence of metastasis. A significant proportion of patients develop subsequent local, regional or distant metastasis, sometimes many years after the initial lesion was removed. The current most effective staging method to identify early regional metastasis is sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB, which is invasive, not without morbidity and, while improving staging, may not improve overall survival. Lymphatic density, Breslow's thickness and the presence or absence of lymphatic invasion combined has been proposed to be a prognostic index of metastasis, by Shields et al in a patient group. Methods Here we undertook a retrospective analysis of 102 malignant melanomas from patients with more than five years follow-up to evaluate the Shields' index and compare with existing indicators. Results The Shields' index accurately predicted outcome in 90% of patients with metastases and 84% without metastases. For these, the Shields index was more predictive than thickness or lymphatic density. Alternate lymphatic measurement (hot spot analysis was also effective when combined into the Shields index in a cohort of 24 patients. Conclusions These results show the Shields index, a non-invasive analysis based on immunohistochemistry of lymphatics surrounding primary lesions that can accurately predict outcome, is a simple, useful prognostic tool in malignant melanoma.

Heterosis at Allozyme Loci under Inbreeding and Crossbreeding in PINUS ATTENUATA

OpenAIRE

Strauss, Steven H.

1986-01-01

The dependence of heterosis at isozyme loci on inbreeding and crossbreeding was studied in 10-yr-old trees of knobcone pine (Pinus attenuata Lemm.). Heterozygosity was determined at 24 polymorphic isozyme loci and related to the rate of vegetative growth and cone production. The inbreds, created by selfpollination, had 46% of the heterozygosity of their mothers; the crossbreds, created by interpopulation crossing, had 155% of the heterozygosity of their mothers. Within the crossbreds, hetero...

Lack of nucleotide variability in a beetle pest with extreme inbreeding

OpenAIRE

Andreev, D.; Breilid, H.; Kirkendall, L.; Brun, Luc-Olivier; French-Constant, R.H.

1998-01-01

The coffee berry borer beetle #Hypothenemus hampei$ (Ferrari) (#Curculionidae$ : #Scolytinae$) is the major insect pest of coffee and has spread to most of the coffee-growing countries of the world. This beetle also displays an usual life cycle, with regular sibling mating. This regular inbreeding and the population bottlenecks occuring on colonization of new regions should lead to low levels of genetic diversity. We were therefore interested in determining the level of nucleotide variation i...

The effects of inbreeding and heat stress on male sterility in Drosophila melanogaster

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Louise Dybdahl; Pedersen, Asger Roer; Bijlsma, Kuke

2011-01-01

in benign and stressful environments using Drosophila melanogaster as a model organism. Male sterility was compared in 21 inbred lines and five non-inbred control lines at 25.0 and 29.0 °C. The effect of inbreeding on sterility was significant only at 29.0 °C. This stress-induced increase in sterility...

Adult nutrition, but not inbreeding, affects male primary sexual traits in the leaf-footed cactus bug Narnia femorata (Hemiptera: Coreidae).

Science.gov (United States)

Joseph, Paul N; Sasson, Daniel A; Allen, Pablo E; Somjee, Ummat; Miller, Christine W

2016-07-01

Adverse conditions may be the norm rather than the exception in natural populations. Many populations experience poor nutrition on a seasonal basis. Further, brief interludes of inbreeding can be common as population density fluctuates and because of habitat fragmentation. Here, we investigated the effects of poor nutrition and inbreeding on traits that can be very important to reproductive success and fitness in males: testes mass, sperm concentration, and sperm viability. Our study species was Narnia femorata, a species introduced to north-central Florida in the 1950s. This species encounters regular, seasonal changes in diet that can have profound phenotypic effects on morphology and behavior. We generated inbred and outbred individuals through a single generation of full-sibling mating or outcrossing, respectively. All juveniles were provided a natural, high-quality diet of Opuntia humifusa cactus cladode with fruit until they reached adulthood. New adult males were put on a high- or low-quality diet for at least 21 days before measurements were taken. As expected, the low-quality diet led to significantly decreased testes mass in both inbred and outbred males, although there were surprisingly no detectable effects on sperm traits. We did not find evidence that inbreeding affected testes mass, sperm concentration, and sperm viability. Our results highlight the immediate and overwhelming effects of nutrition on testes mass, while suggesting that a single generation of inbreeding might not be detrimental for primary sexual traits in this particular population.

Amniotic fluid index predicts the relief of variable decelerations after amnioinfusion bolus.

Science.gov (United States)

Spong, C Y; McKindsey, F; Ross, M G

1996-10-01

Our purpose was to determine whether intrapartum amniotic fluid index before amnioinfusion can be used to predict response to therapeutic amnioinfusion. Intrapartum patients (n = 85) with repetitive variable decelerations in fetal heart rate that necessitated amnioinfusion (10 ml/min for 60 minutes) underwent determination of amniotic fluid index before and after bolus amnioinfusion. The fetal heart tracing was scored (scorer blinded to amniotic fluid index values) for number and characteristics of variable decelerations before and 1 hour after initiation of amnioinfusion. The amnioinfusion was considered successful if it resulted in a decrease of > or = 50% in total number of variable decelerations or a decrease of > or = 50% in the rate of atypical or severe variable decelerations after administration of the bolus. Spontaneous vaginal births before completion of administration of the bolus (n = 18) were excluded from analysis. The probability of success of amnioinfusion in relation to amniotic fluid index was analyzed with the chi(2) test for progressive sequence. The mean amniotic fluid index before amnioinfusion was 6.2 +/- 3.3 cm. An amniotic fluid index of amnioinfusion decreased with increasing amniotic fluid index before amnioinfusion (76% [16/21] when initial amniotic fluid index was 0 to 4 cm, 63% [17/27] when initial amniotic fluid index was 4 to 8 cm, 44% [7/16] when initial amniotic fluid index was 8 to 12 cm, and 33% [1/3] when initial amniotic fluid index was > 12 cm, p = 0.03). The incidence of nuchal cords or true umbilical cord knots increased in relation to amniotic fluid index before amnioinfusion. Amniotic fluid index before amnioinfusion can be used to predict the success of amnioinfusion for relief of variable decelerations in fetal heart rate. Failure of amnioinfusion at a high amniotic fluid index before amnioinfusion may be explained by the increased prevalence of nuchal cords or true knots in the umbilical cord.

Prediction of Massive Transfusion in Trauma Patients with Shock Index, Modified Shock Index, and Age Shock Index

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cheng-Shyuan Rau

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Objectives: The shock index (SI and its derivations, the modified shock index (MSI and the age shock index (Age SI, have been used to identify trauma patients with unstable hemodynamic status. The aim of this study was to evaluate their use in predicting the requirement for massive transfusion (MT in trauma patients upon arrival at the hospital. Participants: A patient receiving transfusion of 10 or more units of packed red blood cells or whole blood within 24 h of arrival at the emergency department was defined as having received MT. Detailed data of 2490 patients hospitalized for trauma between 1 January 2009, and 31 December 2014, who had received blood transfusion within 24 h of arrival at the emergency department, were retrieved from the Trauma Registry System of a level I regional trauma center. These included 99 patients who received MT and 2391 patients who did not. Patients with incomplete registration data were excluded from the study. The two-sided Fisher exact test or Pearson chi-square test were used to compare categorical data. The unpaired Student t-test was used to analyze normally distributed continuous data, and the Mann-Whitney U-test was used to compare non-normally distributed data. Parameters including systolic blood pressure (SBP, heart rate (HR, hemoglobin level (Hb, base deficit (BD, SI, MSI, and Age SI that could provide cut-off points for predicting the patients’ probability of receiving MT were identified by the development of specific receiver operating characteristic (ROC curves. High accuracy was defined as an area under the curve (AUC of more than 0.9, moderate accuracy was defined as an AUC between 0.9 and 0.7, and low accuracy was defined as an AUC less than 0.7. Results: In addition to a significantly higher Injury Severity Score (ISS and worse outcome, the patients requiring MT presented with a significantly higher HR and lower SBP, Hb, and BD, as well as significantly increased SI, MSI, and Age SI. Among

[Evaluation of thermal comfort in a student population: predictive value of an integrated index (Fanger's predicted mean value].

Science.gov (United States)

Catenacci, G; Terzi, R; Marcaletti, G; Tringali, S

1989-01-01

Practical applications and predictive values of a thermal comfort index (Fanger's PRV) were verified on a sample school population (1236 subjects) by studying the relationships between thermal sensations (subjective analysis), determined by means of an individual questionnaire, and the values of thermal comfort index (objective analysis) obtained by calculating the PMV index individually in the subjects under study. In homogeneous conditions of metabolic expenditure rate and thermal impedence from clothing, significant differences were found between the two kinds of analyses. At 22 degrees C mean radiant and operative temperature, the PMV values averaged 0 and the percentage of subjects who experienced thermal comfort did not exceed 60%. The high level of subjects who were dissatisfied with their environmental thermal conditions confirms the doubts regarding the use of the PMV index as a predictive indicator of thermal comfort, especially considering that the negative answers were not homogeneous nor attributable to the small thermal fluctuations (less than 0.5 degree C) measured in the classrooms.

AIR POLLUITON INDEX PREDICTION USING MULTIPLE NEURAL NETWORKS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zainal Ahmad

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Air quality monitoring and forecasting tools are necessary for the purpose of taking precautionary measures against air pollution, such as reducing the effect of a predicted air pollution peak on the surrounding population and ecosystem. In this study a single Feed-forward Artificial Neural Network (FANN is shown to be able to predict the Air Pollution Index (API with a Mean Squared Error (MSE and coefficient determination, R2, of 0.1856 and 0.7950 respectively. However, due to the non-robust nature of single FANN, a selective combination of Multiple Neural Networks (MNN is introduced using backward elimination and a forward selection method. The results show that both selective combination methods can improve the robustness and performance of the API prediction with the MSE and R2 of 0.1614 and 0.8210 respectively. This clearly shows that it is possible to reduce the number of networks combined in MNN for API prediction, without losses of any information in terms of the performance of the final API prediction model.

Starch digestibility and predicted glycemic index of fried sweet potato cultivars

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Amaka Odenigbo

2012-07-01

Full Text Available Background: Sweet potato (Ipomoea batatas L. is a very rich source of starch. There is increased interest in starch digestibility and the prevention and management of metabolic diseases.Objective: The aim of this study was to evaluate the levels of starch fractions and predicted glycemic index of different cultivars of sweet potato. Material and Method: French fries produced from five cultivars of sweet potato (‘Ginseng Red’, ‘Beauregard’, ‘White Travis’, ‘Georgia Jet clone #2010’ and ‘Georgia Jet’ were used. The level of total starch (TS, resistant starch (RS, digestible starch (DS, and starch digestion index starch digestion index in the samples were evaluated. In vitro starch hydrolysis at 30, 90, and 120 min were determined enzymatically for calculation of rapidly digestible starch (RDS, predicted glycemic index (pGI and slowly digestible starch (SDS respectively. Results: The RS content in all samples had an inversely significant correlation with pGI (-0.52; P<0.05 while RDS had positive and significant influence on both pGI (r=0.55; P<0.05 and SDI (r= 0.94; P<0.01. ‘White Travis’ and ‘Ginseng Red’ had higher levels of beneficial starch fractions (RS and SDS with low pGI and starch digestion Index (SDI, despite their higher TS content. Generally, all the cultivars had products with low to moderate GI values. Conclusion: The glycemic index of these food products highlights the health promoting characteristics of sweet potato cultivars.

Assessment of the de Hirsch Predictive Index Tests of Reading Failure.

Science.gov (United States)

Askov, Warren; And Others

The predictive validity and the general usability of a battery of 10 tests reported by de Hirsch, Jansky, and Langford, the de Hirsch Predictive Index Tests of reading failure, were examined. The de Hirsch battery was administered to 433 kindergarten children in six public schools. When the pupils entered first grade, the Metropolitan Readiness…

Effects of seed size, inbreeding and maternal sex on offspring fitness in gynodioecious Plantago coronopus

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Koelewijn, H.P.; Damme, van J.M.M.

2005-01-01

1 Male steriles (MS) must have a fitness advantage relative to hermaphrodites (H) if they are to be maintained in gynodioecious species. We report experiments in which we disentangle the relative contributions of seed size, inbreeding and maternal sex to the fitness advantage of male steriles in

No Inbreeding depression for low temperature developmental acclimation across multiple drosophila species

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kristensen, Torsten Nygård; Loeschcke, Volker; Bilde, Trine

2011-01-01

stressful temperatures, but whether adaptation to thermal stress through plastic responses also is affected by inbreeding is so far not clear. In this study, we test inherent cold resistance and the ability to respond plastically to temperature changes through developmental cold acclimation in inbred...... the ability to respond adaptively to temperature acclimation, and (3) tropical species with low basal resistance show stronger adaptive plastic responses to developmental acclimation compared to widespread species...

Body mass index predicts risk for complications from transtemporal cerebellopontine angle surgery.

Science.gov (United States)

Mantravadi, Avinash V; Leonetti, John P; Burgette, Ryan; Pontikis, George; Marzo, Sam J; Anderson, Douglas

2013-03-01

To determine the relationship between body mass index (BMI) and risk for specific complications from transtemporal cerebellopontine angle (CPA) surgery for nonmalignant disease. Case series with chart review. Tertiary-care academic hospital. Retrospective review of 134 consecutive patients undergoing transtemporal cerebellopontine angle surgery for nonmalignant disease from 2009 to 2011. Data were collected regarding demographics, body mass index, intraoperative details, hospital stay, and complications including cerebrospinal fluid leak, wound complications, and brachial plexopathy. One hundred thirty-four patients were analyzed with a mean preoperative body mass index of 28.58. Statistical analysis demonstrated a significant difference in body mass index between patients with a postoperative cerebrospinal fluid leak and those without (P = .04), as well as a similar significant difference between those experiencing postoperative brachial plexopathy and those with no such complication (P = .03). Logistical regression analysis confirmed that body mass index is significant in predicting both postoperative cerebrospinal fluid leak (P = .004; odds ratio, 1.10) and brachial plexopathy (P = .04; odds ratio, 1.07). Elevated body mass index was not significant in predicting wound complications or increased hospital stay beyond postoperative day 3. Risk of cerebrospinal fluid leak and brachial plexopathy is increased in patients with elevated body mass index undergoing surgery of the cerebellopontine angle. Consideration should be given to preoperative optimization via dietary and lifestyle modifications as well as intraoperative somatosensory evoked potential monitoring of the brachial plexus to decrease these risks.

Predicting nosocomial lower respiratory tract infections by a risk index based system

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Chen, Yong; Shan, Xue; Zhao, Jingya; Han, Xuelin; Tian, Shuguang; Chen, Fangyan; Su, Xueting; Sun, Yansong; Huang, Liuyu; Grundmann, Hajo; Wang, Hongyuan; Han, Li

2017-01-01

Although belonging to one of the most common type of nosocomial infection, there was currently no simple prediction model for lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs). This study aims to develop a risk index based system for predicting nosocomial LRTIs based on data from a large point-prevalence

Development and validation of an ICD-10-based disability predictive index for patients admitted to hospitals with trauma.

Science.gov (United States)

Wada, Tomoki; Yasunaga, Hideo; Yamana, Hayato; Matsui, Hiroki; Fushimi, Kiyohide; Morimura, Naoto

2018-03-01

There was no established disability predictive measurement for patients with trauma that could be used in administrative claims databases. The aim of the present study was to develop and validate a diagnosis-based disability predictive index for severe physical disability at discharge using the International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision (ICD-10) coding. This retrospective observational study used the Diagnosis Procedure Combination database in Japan. Patients who were admitted to hospitals with trauma and discharged alive from 01 April 2010 to 31 March 2015 were included. Pediatric patients under 15 years old were excluded. Data for patients admitted to hospitals from 01 April 2010 to 31 March 2013 was used for development of a disability predictive index (derivation cohort), while data for patients admitted to hospitals from 01 April 2013 to 31 March 2015 was used for the internal validation (validation cohort). The outcome of interest was severe physical disability defined as the Barthel Index score of predictive index for each patient was defined as the sum of the scores. The predictive performance of the index was validated using the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis in the validation cohort. The derivation cohort included 1,475,158 patients, while the validation cohort included 939,659 patients. Of the 939,659 patients, 235,382 (25.0%) were discharged with severe physical disability. The c-statistics of the disability predictive index was 0.795 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.794-0.795), while that of a model using the disability predictive index and patient baseline characteristics was 0.856 (95% CI 0.855-0.857). Severe physical disability at discharge may be well predicted with patient age, sex, CCI score, and the diagnosis-based disability predictive index in patients admitted to hospitals with trauma. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effect of population outcrossing rate on inbreeding depression in Pinus contorta var. murrayana seedlings.

Science.gov (United States)

Frank C. Sorensen

2001-01-01

Seft and cross families from three populatons (A, low-density, ecologically marginal site for lodgepole pine, and B + C, normal sites) were cultured in a common outdoor nursery for 2 yrs. Previous results results had shown higher natural selfing rates and lower inbreeding depression in embryo survival in A than in B + C. In the nursery test, selfing decreased means of...

Can bispectral index or auditory evoked potential index predict implicit memory during propofol-induced sedation?

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Yun; Yue, Yun; Sun, Yong-hai; Wu, An-shi

2006-06-05

Some patients still suffer from implicit memory of intraoperative events under adequate depth of anaesthesia. The elimination of implicit memory should be a necessary aim of clinical general anaesthesia. However, implicit memory cannot be tested during anaesthesia yet. We propose bispectral index (BIS) and auditory evoked potential index (AEPI), as predictors of implicit memory during anaesthesia. Thirty-six patients were equally divided into 3 groups according to the Observer's Assessment of Alertness/Sedation Score: A, level 3; B, level 2; and C, level 1. Every patient was given the first auditory stimulus before sedation. Then every patient received the second auditory stimulus after the target level of sedation had been reached. BIS and AEPI were monitored before and after the second auditory stimulus presentation. Four hours later, the inclusion test and exclusion test were performed on the ward using process dissociation procedure and the scores of implicit memory estimated. In groups A and B but not C, implicit memory estimates were statistically greater than zero (P memory scores in group A did not differ significantly from those in group B (P > 0.05). Implicit memory scores correlated with BIS and AEPI (P AEPI. The 95% cutoff points of BIS and AEPI for predicting implicit memory are 47 and 28, respectively. Implicit memory does not disappear until the depth of sedation increases to level 1 of OAA/S score. Implicit memory scores correlate well with BIS and AEPI during sedation. BIS is a better index for predicting implicit memory than AEPI during propofol induced sedation.

Novel Radiobiological Gamma Index for Evaluation of 3-Dimensional Predicted Dose Distribution

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sumida, Iori, E-mail: sumida@radonc.med.osaka-u.ac.jp [Department of Radiation Oncology, Osaka University Graduate School of Medicine, Osaka (Japan); Yamaguchi, Hajime; Kizaki, Hisao; Aboshi, Keiko; Tsujii, Mari; Yoshikawa, Nobuhiko; Yamada, Yuji [Department of Radiation Oncology, NTT West Osaka Hospital, Osaka (Japan); Suzuki, Osamu; Seo, Yuji [Department of Radiation Oncology, Osaka University Graduate School of Medicine, Osaka (Japan); Isohashi, Fumiaki [Department of Radiation Oncology, NTT West Osaka Hospital, Osaka (Japan); Yoshioka, Yasuo [Department of Radiation Oncology, Osaka University Graduate School of Medicine, Osaka (Japan); Ogawa, Kazuhiko [Department of Radiation Oncology, NTT West Osaka Hospital, Osaka (Japan)

2015-07-15

Purpose: To propose a gamma index-based dose evaluation index that integrates the radiobiological parameters of tumor control (TCP) and normal tissue complication probabilities (NTCP). Methods and Materials: Fifteen prostate and head and neck (H&N) cancer patients received intensity modulated radiation therapy. Before treatment, patient-specific quality assurance was conducted via beam-by-beam analysis, and beam-specific dose error distributions were generated. The predicted 3-dimensional (3D) dose distribution was calculated by back-projection of relative dose error distribution per beam. A 3D gamma analysis of different organs (prostate: clinical [CTV] and planned target volumes [PTV], rectum, bladder, femoral heads; H&N: gross tumor volume [GTV], CTV, spinal cord, brain stem, both parotids) was performed using predicted and planned dose distributions under 2%/2 mm tolerance and physical gamma passing rate was calculated. TCP and NTCP values were calculated for voxels with physical gamma indices (PGI) >1. We propose a new radiobiological gamma index (RGI) to quantify the radiobiological effects of TCP and NTCP and calculate radiobiological gamma passing rates. Results: The mean RGI gamma passing rates for prostate cases were significantly different compared with those of PGI (P<.03–.001). The mean RGI gamma passing rates for H&N cases (except for GTV) were significantly different compared with those of PGI (P<.001). Differences in gamma passing rates between PGI and RGI were due to dose differences between the planned and predicted dose distributions. Radiobiological gamma distribution was visualized to identify areas where the dose was radiobiologically important. Conclusions: RGI was proposed to integrate radiobiological effects into PGI. This index would assist physicians and medical physicists not only in physical evaluations of treatment delivery accuracy, but also in clinical evaluations of predicted dose distribution.

Six-SOMAmer Index Relating to Immune, Protease and Angiogenic Functions Predicts Progression in IPF.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shanna L Ashley

Full Text Available Biomarkers in easily accessible compartments like peripheral blood that can predict disease progression in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF would be clinically useful regarding clinical trial participation or treatment decisions for patients. In this study, we used unbiased proteomics to identify relevant disease progression biomarkers in IPF.Plasma from IPF patients was measured using an 1129 analyte slow off-rate modified aptamer (SOMAmer array, and patient outcomes were followed over the next 80 weeks. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC curves evaluated sensitivity and specificity for levels of each biomarker and estimated area under the curve (AUC when prognostic biomarker thresholds were used to predict disease progression. Both logistic and Cox regression models advised biomarker selection for a composite disease progression index; index biomarkers were weighted via expected progression-free days lost during follow-up with a biomarker on the unfavorable side of the threshold.A six-analyte index, scaled 0 to 11, composed of markers of immune function, proteolysis and angiogenesis [high levels of ficolin-2 (FCN2, cathepsin-S (Cath-S, legumain (LGMN and soluble vascular endothelial growth factor receptor 2 (VEGFsR2, but low levels of inducible T cell costimulator (ICOS or trypsin 3 (TRY3] predicted better progression-free survival in IPF with a ROC AUC of 0.91. An index score ≥ 3 (group ≥ 2 was strongly associated with IPF progression after adjustment for age, gender, smoking status, immunomodulation, forced vital capacity % predicted and diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide % predicted (HR 16.8, 95% CI 2.2-126.7, P = 0.006.This index, derived from the largest proteomic analysis of IPF plasma samples to date, could be useful for clinical decision making in IPF, and the identified analytes suggest biological processes that may promote disease progression.

PDW Index - A Simple Model for the Prediction of Liver Fibrosis in Chronic Viral Hepatitis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ashraf, S.; Ali, N.

2013-01-01

Objectives: To assess the accuracy of platelets, platelet morphological parameters, mean platelet volume(MPV) and platelet distribution width, (PDW) to diagnose advanced fibrosis. Study Design: Validation study. Place and Duration of Study: Combined Military Hospital, Malir, from Jun 2008 to Jun 2009. Patients and Methods: Simple laboratory tests, aspartate aminotransferase (AST) alanine aminotransferase (ALT) platelet count and platelet morphological parameters were measured in 91 chronic viral hepatitis patients. All patients had liver biopsy performed. A new index, PDW index was derived to detect the opposing effects of liver fibrosis on platelet count, MPV, and PDW. The predictive value of the index for advanced fibrosis (F3-F4) was assessed through descriptive statistics and area under the ROC curves. Results: Two cut-offs were chosen to qualify different stages of fibrosis. A value of > 8.00 predicted advanced fibrosis, F3-F4, with a specificity of 94% and positive predictive value of 78%. A value of < 6.00 ruled out advanced fibrosis with a negative predictive value of 93% and a sensitivity of 82%. The area under the ROC curve for advanced fibrosis was 0.840. PDW Index values outside of these cut-offs correctly classified 60% of patients. Conclusion: A simple index comprising platelet as only parameters have high diagnostic value for the advanced stages of fibrosis. (author)

Inbreeding and it is effects on some productive and reproductive traits in a herd of Egyptian buffaloes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A.M. Kawthar

2010-02-01

Full Text Available A total of 1551 normal lactation records of Egyptian buffaloes, Kept at Mehallet Mousa Farm, belonging to Ministry of Agriculture, during the period from 1960 to 2001 were used. Milk yield, lactation period and age at first calving were studied in order to determine the presence of inbreeding in the herd and to evaluate it is effects as well as the effects of some environmental factors on these traits. In addition, genetic parameters of these traits are also studied. Milk yield, lactation period and age at first calving averaged 1193 ± 522 kg, 282±125 and 39 ± 3 mo, respectively. Among all three traits, only age at first calving was affected by inbreeding. Month of calving and year of calving had a significant effect on all traits studied, while age at first calving had no significant effect on milk yield and lactation period.

Impact of consanguineous marriages and degrees of inbreeding on fertility, child mortality, secondary sex ratio, selection intensity, and genetic load: a cross-sectional study from Northern India.

Science.gov (United States)

Fareed, Mohd; Kaisar Ahmad, Mir; Azeem Anwar, Malik; Afzal, Mohammad

2017-01-01

The aim of our study was to understand the relationship between consanguineous marriages and reproductive outcomes. A total of 999 families were recruited from five Muslim populations of Jammu region. Family pedigrees were drawn to access the family history and inbreeding status in terms of coefficient of inbreeding (F). Fertility, mortality, secondary sex ratio, selection intensity, and lethal equivalents were measured using standard methods. The significant differences for gross fertility was found to be higher among inbred groups as compared to the unrelated families (P consanguineous families of all populations in comparison with the non-consanguineous family groups. Moreover, the prenatal and postnatal child mortality rates (i.e., U5MR and U18MR) have presented a persuasive increase with an upsurge in the homozygosity level. The mortality rate was found to be maximum among families with the highest value of coefficient of inbreeding (F). The selection intensity (SI) also showed inflations among families with respect to their increasing inbreeding coefficients. The greater values of lethal equivalents per gamete (LEs/gamete) were observed for autosomal inheritance in comparison with sex-linked inheritance. Our conclusive assessment brings out the deleterious consequence of consanguineous marriages on reproductive outcomes.

Genome-scale data reveal that endemic Poecilia populations from small sulphidic springs display no evidence of inbreeding.

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, Anthony P; Greenway, Ryan; Morgan, Samuel; Quackenbush, Corey R; Giordani, Luca; Arias-Rodriguez, Lenin; Tobler, Michael; Kelley, Joanna L

2017-10-01

Populations with limited ranges can be highly vulnerable to changes in their environment and are, thus, of high conservation concern. Populations that experience human-induced range reductions are often highly inbred and lack genetic diversity, but it is unknown whether this is also the case for populations with naturally small ranges. The fishes Poecilia sulphuraria (listed as critically endangered) and Poecilia thermalis, which are endemic to small hydrogen sulphide-rich springs in southern Mexico, are examples of such populations with inherently small habitats. We used geometric morphometrics and population genetics to quantify phenotypic and genetic variation within and among two populations of P. sulphuraria and one population of P. thermalis. Principal component analyses revealed phenotypic and genetic differences among the populations. Evidence for inbreeding was low compared to populations that have undergone habitat reduction. The genetic data were also used to infer the demographic history of these populations to obtain estimates for effective population sizes and migration rates. Effective population sizes were large given the small habitats of these populations. Our results imply that these three endemic extremophile populations should each be considered separately for conservation purposes. Additionally, this study suggests that populations in naturally small habitats may have lower rates of inbreeding and higher genetic diversity than expected, and therefore may be better equipped to handle environmental perturbations than anticipated. We caution, however, that the inferred lack of inbreeding and the large effective population sizes could potentially be a result of colonization by genetically diverse ancestors. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Using the Speech Transmission Index for predicting non-native speech intelligibility

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wijngaarden, S.J. van; Bronkhorst, A.W.; Houtgast, T.; Steeneken, H.J.M.

2004-01-01

While the Speech Transmission Index ~STI! is widely applied for prediction of speech intelligibility in room acoustics and telecommunication engineering, it is unclear how to interpret STI values when non-native talkers or listeners are involved. Based on subjectively measured psychometric functions

A behavioral economic reward index predicts drinking resolutions: moderation revisited and compared with other outcomes.

Science.gov (United States)

Tucker, Jalie A; Roth, David L; Vignolo, Mary J; Westfall, Andrew O

2009-04-01

Data were pooled from 3 studies of recently resolved community-dwelling problem drinkers to determine whether a behavioral economic index of the value of rewards available over different time horizons distinguished among moderation (n = 30), abstinent (n = 95), and unresolved (n = 77) outcomes. Moderation over 1- to 2-year prospective follow-up intervals was hypothesized to involve longer term behavior regulation processes than abstinence or relapse and to be predicted by more balanced preresolution monetary allocations between short-term and longer term objectives (i.e., drinking and saving for the future). Standardized odds ratios (ORs) based on changes in standard deviation units from a multinomial logistic regression indicated that increases on this "Alcohol-Savings Discretionary Expenditure" index predicted higher rates of abstinence (OR = 1.93, p = .004) and relapse (OR = 2.89, p moderation outcomes. The index had incremental utility in predicting moderation in complex models that included other established predictors. The study adds to evidence supporting a behavioral economic analysis of drinking resolutions and shows that a systematic analysis of preresolution spending patterns aids in predicting moderation.

Fitness consequences of outcrossing in a social spider with an inbreeding mating system.

Science.gov (United States)

Berger-Tal, Reut; Tuni, Cristina; Lubin, Yael; Smith, Deborah; Bilde, Trine

2014-02-01

Inbreeding mating systems are uncommon because of inbreeding depression. Mating among close relatives can evolve, however, when outcrossing is constrained. Social spiders show obligatory mating among siblings. In combination with a female-biased sex ratio, sib-mating results in small effective populations. In such a system, high genetic homozygosity is expected, and drift may cause population divergence. We tested the effect of outcrossing in the social spider Stegodyphus dumicola. Females were mated to sib-males, to a non-nestmate within the population, or to a male from a distant population, and fitness traits of F1s were compared. We found reduced hatching success of broods from between-population crosses, suggesting the presence of population divergence at a large geographical scale that may result in population incompatibility. However, a lack of a difference in offspring performance between inbred and outbred crosses indicates little genetic variation between populations, and could suggest recent colonization by a common ancestor. This is consistent with population dynamics of frequent colonizations by single sib-mated females of common origin, and extinctions of populations after few generations. Although drift or single mutations can lead to population divergence at a relatively short time scale, it is possible that dynamic population processes homogenize these effects at longer time scales. © 2013 The Author(s). Evolution © 2013 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Predicting waist circumference from body mass index.

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Bozeman, Samuel R; Hoaglin, David C; Burton, Tanya M; Pashos, Chris L; Ben-Joseph, Rami H; Hollenbeak, Christopher S

2012-08-03

Being overweight or obese increases risk for cardiometabolic disorders. Although both body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) measure the level of overweight and obesity, WC may be more important because of its closer relationship to total body fat. Because WC is typically not assessed in clinical practice, this study sought to develop and verify a model to predict WC from BMI and demographic data, and to use the predicted WC to assess cardiometabolic risk. Data were obtained from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) and the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study (ARIC). We developed linear regression models for men and women using NHANES data, fitting waist circumference as a function of BMI. For validation, those regressions were applied to ARIC data, assigning a predicted WC to each individual. We used the predicted WC to assess abdominal obesity and cardiometabolic risk. The model correctly classified 88.4% of NHANES subjects with respect to abdominal obesity. Median differences between actual and predicted WC were -0.07 cm for men and 0.11 cm for women. In ARIC, the model closely estimated the observed WC (median difference: -0.34 cm for men, +3.94 cm for women), correctly classifying 86.1% of ARIC subjects with respect to abdominal obesity and 91.5% to 99.5% as to cardiometabolic risk.The model is generalizable to Caucasian and African-American adult populations because it was constructed from data on a large, population-based sample of men and women in the United States, and then validated in a population with a larger representation of African-Americans. The model accurately estimates WC and identifies cardiometabolic risk. It should be useful for health care practitioners and public health officials who wish to identify individuals and populations at risk for cardiometabolic disease when WC data are unavailable.

Inbreeding avoidance, patch isolation and matrix permeability influence dispersal and settlement choices by male agile antechinus in a fragmented landscape.

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Banks, Sam C; Lindenmayer, David B

2014-03-01

Animal dispersal is highly non-random and has important implications for the dynamics of populations in fragmented habitat. We identified interpatch dispersal events from genetic tagging, parentage analyses and assignment tests and modelled the factors associated with apparent emigration and post-dispersal settlement choices by individual male agile antechinus (Antechinus agilis, a marsupial carnivore of south-east Australian forests). Emigration decisions were best modelled with on data patch isolation and inbreeding risk. The choice of dispersal destination by males was influenced by inbreeding risk, female abundance, patch size, patch quality and matrix permeability (variation in land cover). Males were less likely to settle in patches without highly unrelated females. Our findings highlight the importance of individual-level dispersal data for understanding how multiple processes drive non-randomness in dispersal in modified landscapes. Fragmented landscapes present novel environmental, demographic and genetic contexts in which dispersal decisions are made, so the major factors affecting dispersal decisions in fragmented habitat may differ considerably from unfragmented landscapes. We show that the spatial scale of genetic neighbourhoods can be large in fragmented habitat, such that dispersing males can potentially settle in the presence of genetically similar females after moving considerable distances, thereby necessitating both a choice to emigrate and a choice of where to settle to avoid inbreeding. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2013 British Ecological Society.

Prediction of Bispectral Index during Target-controlled Infusion of Propofol and Remifentanil: A Deep Learning Approach.

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Lee, Hyung-Chul; Ryu, Ho-Geol; Chung, Eun-Jin; Jung, Chul-Woo

2018-03-01

The discrepancy between predicted effect-site concentration and measured bispectral index is problematic during intravenous anesthesia with target-controlled infusion of propofol and remifentanil. We hypothesized that bispectral index during total intravenous anesthesia would be more accurately predicted by a deep learning approach. Long short-term memory and the feed-forward neural network were sequenced to simulate the pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic parts of an empirical model, respectively, to predict intraoperative bispectral index during combined use of propofol and remifentanil. Inputs of long short-term memory were infusion histories of propofol and remifentanil, which were retrieved from target-controlled infusion pumps for 1,800 s at 10-s intervals. Inputs of the feed-forward network were the outputs of long short-term memory and demographic data such as age, sex, weight, and height. The final output of the feed-forward network was the bispectral index. The performance of bispectral index prediction was compared between the deep learning model and previously reported response surface model. The model hyperparameters comprised 8 memory cells in the long short-term memory layer and 16 nodes in the hidden layer of the feed-forward network. The model training and testing were performed with separate data sets of 131 and 100 cases. The concordance correlation coefficient (95% CI) were 0.561 (0.560 to 0.562) in the deep learning model, which was significantly larger than that in the response surface model (0.265 [0.263 to 0.266], P deep learning model-predicted bispectral index during target-controlled infusion of propofol and remifentanil more accurately compared to the traditional model. The deep learning approach in anesthetic pharmacology seems promising because of its excellent performance and extensibility.

Improved predictability of droughts over southern Africa using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index and ENSO

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Manatsa, Desmond; Mushore, Terrence; Lenouo, Andre

2017-01-01

The provision of timely and reliable climate information on which to base management decisions remains a critical component in drought planning for southern Africa. In this observational study, we have not only proposed a forecasting scheme which caters for timeliness and reliability but improved relevance of the climate information by using a novel drought index called the standardised precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), instead of the traditional precipitation only based index, the standardised precipitation index (SPI). The SPEI which includes temperature and other climatic factors in its construction has a more robust connection to ENSO than the SPI. Consequently, the developed ENSO-SPEI prediction scheme can provide quantitative information about the spatial extent and severity of predicted drought conditions in a way that reflects more closely the level of risk in the global warming context of the sub region. However, it is established that the ENSO significant regional impact is restricted only to the period December-March, implying a revisit to the traditional ENSO-based forecast scheme which essentially divides the rainfall season into the two periods, October to December and January to March. Although the prediction of ENSO events has increased with the refinement of numerical models, this work has demonstrated that the prediction of drought impacts related to ENSO is also a reality based only on observations. A large temporal lag is observed between the development of ENSO phenomena (typically in May of the previous year) and the identification of regional SPEI defined drought conditions. It has been shown that using the Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum's (SARCOF) traditional 3-month averaged Nino 3.4 SST index (June to August) as a predictor does not have an added advantage over using only the May SST index values. In this regard, the extended lead time and improved skill demonstrated in this study could immensely benefit

Reproductive Behavior and Inbreeding Depression in Endangered Eremostachys superba Royle ex Benth. (Labiatae in Dehra Dun Population, India

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Arti Garg

2004-12-01

Full Text Available An assessment of reproductive behavior and inbreeding depression, if any, in critically endangered Eremostachys superba Royle ex Benth. (Labiatae was made to unveil the factors playing vital role in it’s reproductive biology and which may be responsible for the loss of fitness, viability and vigor of the species. Breeding experiments portrayed a failure of self-fertilization and a strong tendency towards out-breeding as seed set by xenogamy was highest (44.4%. However, the narrow restricted population of the type locality in Dehra Dun Siwaliks was just a ramet population sustained by clonal propagation of rhizomatous root stock, hence any out-crossing within these homozygous individuals also amounted to inbreeding. Further, there is no other population available within the range of normal seed dispersal mechanism or insect-pollinator-flight-range. The other populations reported are only from geographically distant region of Jammu and Kashmir state of India, which is too far a distance to be covered by the Nomia rustica West. and Ceratina heiroglyphica Sm., the oligophilic pollinators of E. superba, hence any crossing taking place also amounts to selfing in strict sense. Chances of induction of genetic variation by crossing between two different populations are remote. This was also supported by the data of seed production and germination experiments. Even the healthy seeds suffered from loss of fitness and failed to germinate under natural conditions. This strongly indicated prevalence of inbreeding depression and loss of fitness of the progeny right from the stage of germination, a phenomenon hazardous for sustenance and perpetuation of species leading to rarity.

Empirical modelling to predict the refractive index of human blood

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Yahya, M.; Saghir, M. Z.

2016-02-01

Optical techniques used for the measurement of the optical properties of blood are of great interest in clinical diagnostics. Blood analysis is a routine procedure used in medical diagnostics to confirm a patient’s condition. Measuring the optical properties of blood is difficult due to the non-homogenous nature of the blood itself. In addition, there is a lot of variation in the refractive indices reported in the literature. These are the reasons that motivated the researchers to develop a mathematical model that can be used to predict the refractive index of human blood as a function of concentration, temperature and wavelength. The experimental measurements were conducted on mimicking phantom hemoglobin samples using the Abbemat Refractometer. The results analysis revealed a linear relationship between the refractive index and concentration as well as temperature, and a non-linear relationship between refractive index and wavelength. These results are in agreement with those found in the literature. In addition, a new formula was developed based on empirical modelling which suggests that temperature and wavelength coefficients be added to the Barer formula. The verification of this correlation confirmed its ability to determine refractive index and/or blood hematocrit values with appropriate clinical accuracy.

Efeito da endogamia na produção de sementes de pepino caipira Effect of inbreeding in seeds yield of "caipira" cucumber

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Amanda Regina Godoy

2006-01-01

Full Text Available Este trabalho teve por objetivo verificar se existe depressão por endogamia para produção de sementes com sucessivas gerações de autofecundações em uma população de pepino caipira, obtida a partir da geração F2 do cruzamento (Safira x Hatem x Safira. O delineamento experimental utilizado foi em blocos ao acaso, com seis tratamentos (diferentes gerações de autofecundação - S0 a S5, quatro repetições e cinco plantas por parcela. Não houve diferença estatística para todas as características avaliadas (número de frutos por planta, massa de sementes por planta, massa de sementes por fruto, número de sementes por planta, número de sementes por fruto, massa de 100 sementes, teste-padrão de germinação, primeira contagem do teste-padrão de germinação e índice de velocidade de germinação, observando-se que a endogamia não afetou a produção e qualidade das sementes nessa população.The objective of this work was to evaluate the inbreeding depression after successive generations of self-pollination in a cucumber population, generation F2 from the cross (Safira x Hatem x Safira. Experimental design was randomized blocks with six treatments (different generations of self-pollination - S0 to S5, four replicates and five plants per plot. There was no statistical difference among all evauated characteristics (fruit number per plant, number and weight of seeds per plant and per fruit, germination test, first count of germinated seeds, index of germination a and weight of 100 seeds, showing that inbreeding did not affect seed production and quality in this population.

Pulmonary edema predictive scoring index (PEPSI), a new index to predict risk of reperfusion pulmonary edema and improvement of hemodynamics in percutaneous transluminal pulmonary angioplasty.

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Inami, Takumi; Kataoka, Masaharu; Shimura, Nobuhiko; Ishiguro, Haruhisa; Yanagisawa, Ryoji; Taguchi, Hiroki; Fukuda, Keiichi; Yoshino, Hideaki; Satoh, Toru

2013-07-01

This study sought to identify useful predictors for hemodynamic improvement and risk of reperfusion pulmonary edema (RPE), a major complication of this procedure. Percutaneous transluminal pulmonary angioplasty (PTPA) has been reported to be effective for the treatment of chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension (CTEPH). PTPA has not been widespread because RPE has not been well predicted. We included 140 consecutive procedures in 54 patients with CTEPH. The flow appearance of the target vessels was graded into 4 groups (Pulmonary Flow Grade), and we proposed PEPSI (Pulmonary Edema Predictive Scoring Index) = (sum total change of Pulmonary Flow Grade scores) × (baseline pulmonary vascular resistance). Correlations between occurrence of RPE and 11 variables, including hemodynamic parameters, number of target vessels, and PEPSI, were analyzed. Hemodynamic parameters significantly improved after median observation period of 6.4 months, and the sum total changes in Pulmonary Flow Grade scores were significantly correlated with the improvement in hemodynamics. Multivariate analysis revealed that PEPSI was the strongest factor correlated with the occurrence of RPE (p PEPSI to be a useful marker of the risk of RPE (cutoff value 35.4, negative predictive value 92.3%). Pulmonary Flow Grade score is useful in determining therapeutic efficacy, and PEPSI is highly supportive to reduce the risk of RPE after PTPA. Using these 2 indexes, PTPA could become a safe and common therapeutic strategy for CTEPH. Copyright © 2013 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimates of genetic parameters, genetic trends, and inbreeding in a crossbred dairy sheep research flock in the United States.

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Murphy, T W; Berger, Y M; Holman, P W; Baldin, M; Burgett, R L; Thomas, D L

2017-10-01

For the past 2 decades, the Spooner Agriculture Research Station (ARS) of the University of Wisconsin-Madison operated the only dairy sheep research flock in North America. The objectives of the present study were to 1) obtain estimates of genetic parameters for lactation and reproductive traits in dairy ewes, 2) estimate the amount of genetic change in these traits over time, and 3) quantify the level of inbreeding in this flock over the last 20 yr. Multiple-trait repeatability models (MTRM) were used to analyze ewe traits through their first 6 parities. The first MTRM jointly analyzed milk (180-d-adjusted milk yield [180d MY]), fat (180-d-adjusted fat yield [180d FY]), and protein (180-d-adjusted protein yield [180d PY]) yields adjusted to 180 d of lactation; number of lambs born per ewe lambing (NLB); and lactation average test-day somatic cell score (LSCS). A second MTRM analyzed 180d MY, NLB, LSCS, and percentage milk fat (%F) and percentage milk protein (%P). The 3 yield traits were moderately heritable (0.26 to 0.32) and strongly genetically correlated (0.91 to 0.96). Percentage milk fat and %P were highly heritable (0.53 and 0.61, respectively) and moderately genetically correlated (0.61). Milk yield adjusted to 180 d was negatively genetically correlated with %F and %P (-0.31 and -0.34, respectively). Ewe prolificacy was not significantly ( > 0.67) genetically correlated with yield traits, %P, or LSCS but lowly negatively correlated with %F (-0.26). Lactation somatic cell score was unfavorably genetically correlated with yield traits (0.28 to 0.39) but not significantly ( > 0.09) correlated with %F, %P, and NLB. Within-trait multiple-trait models through the first 4 parities revealed that 180d MY, 180d FY, 180d PY, %F, and %P were strongly genetically correlated across parity (0.67 to 1.00). However, the genetic correlations across parity for NLB and LSCS were somewhat lower (0.51 to 0.96). Regressing predicted breeding values for 180d MY, without and with

Heterotic studies and inbreeding depression in f/sub 2/populations of upland cotton

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Panni, M.K.

2012-01-01

To study the genetic potential, heterotic effects and inbreeding depression, 8 X 8 F/sub 2/diallel populations with parental lines of upland cotton were grown during crop season 2010 in a randomized complete block design at Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Agricultural University Peshawar, Pakistan. Highly significant ( p = 0.01 ) variations were noticed among parental lines and F/sub 2/ populations for all the traits. According to genotypes mean performance for various traits, plant height varied from 101.60 to 126.30 cm and 98.60 to 140.60 cm, bolls plant/sup -1/ (12.87 to 19.53; 12.13 to 22.60), boll weight (3.80 to 5.01 g; 3.04 to 5.38 g) and seed cotton yield plant/sup -1/ varied from 55.74 to 85.47 g and 45.57 to 96.05 g in parental cultivars and their F/sub 2/ populations, respectively. However, 12 and 7 F/sub 2/ populations manifested significant heterosis over mid and better parents for plant height, 7 and 3 for bolls plant/sup -1/, 13 and 9 for boll weight and 13 and 5 F/sub 2/ populations for seed cotton yield plant/sup -1/, respectively. F/sub 2/ populations i.e. CIM-554 X CIM-473, CIM-554 X CIM-499, CIM-496 X SLH-284, CIM-473 X CIM-446 and CIM-554 X SLH-284 with low mean values for plant height performed better and manifested highly significant heterotic values over mid and better parents for bolls per plant, boll weight and seed cotton yield. By comparing F/sub 2/ mean values with F/sub 1/s, inbreeding depression was observed for plant height (0.66 to 23. 99%), bolls per plant (5.00 to 63.16%), boll weight (0.20 to 23.24%) and seed cotton yield (0.44 to 75.52%). However, 62% of F/sub 2/ populations revealed negative values for inbreeding depression, 14% for bolls per plant, 77% for boll weight and 21% for yield, revealed that these F/sub 2/ populations were more stable and performed better than F/sub 1/s even after segregation. Although, F/sub 2/ populations may display less heterosis as compared to F/sub 1/, but still better than high parents and can be used as

Accuracy of Body Mass Index Versus Lean Mass Index for Prediction of Sarcopenia in Older Women.

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Benton, M J; Silva-Smith, A L

2018-01-01

We compared accuracy of body mass index (BMI) versus lean mass index (LMI) to predict sarcopenia in 58 community-dwelling women (74.1±0.9 years). Lean mass was measured with multi-frequency bioelectrical impedance analysis, and strength was measured with Arm Curl test, Chair Stand test, and handgrip dynamometry. Sarcopenia was defined as low LMI. When categorized by BMI, normal women had less absolute lean mass (37.6±1.0 vs. 42.6±0.9 kg; Plean mass (14.1±0.2 vs. 16.1±0.2 kg/m2; Plean mass (44.0±0.7 vs. 35.7±0.7 kg; Plean mass (16.2±0.2 vs. 13.8±0.2 kg/m2; Plean mass and strength. For clinical assessment, calculation of LMI rather than BMI is appropriate.

Empirical modelling to predict the refractive index of human blood

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yahya, M; Saghir, M Z

2016-01-01

Optical techniques used for the measurement of the optical properties of blood are of great interest in clinical diagnostics. Blood analysis is a routine procedure used in medical diagnostics to confirm a patient’s condition. Measuring the optical properties of blood is difficult due to the non-homogenous nature of the blood itself. In addition, there is a lot of variation in the refractive indices reported in the literature. These are the reasons that motivated the researchers to develop a mathematical model that can be used to predict the refractive index of human blood as a function of concentration, temperature and wavelength. The experimental measurements were conducted on mimicking phantom hemoglobin samples using the Abbemat Refractometer. The results analysis revealed a linear relationship between the refractive index and concentration as well as temperature, and a non-linear relationship between refractive index and wavelength. These results are in agreement with those found in the literature. In addition, a new formula was developed based on empirical modelling which suggests that temperature and wavelength coefficients be added to the Barer formula. The verification of this correlation confirmed its ability to determine refractive index and/or blood hematocrit values with appropriate clinical accuracy. (paper)

A Behavioral Economic Reward Index Predicts Drinking Resolutions: Moderation Re-visited and Compared with Other Outcomes

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Tucker, Jalie A.; Roth, David L.; Vignolo, Mary J.; Westfall, Andrew O.

2014-01-01

Data were pooled from three studies of recently resolved community-dwelling problem drinkers to determine whether a behavioral economic index of the value of rewards available over different time horizons distinguished among moderation (n = 30), abstinent (n = 95), and unresolved (n = 77) outcomes. Moderation over 1-2 year prospective follow-up intervals was hypothesized to involve longer term behavior regulation processes compared to abstinence or relapse and to be predicted by more balanced pre-resolution monetary allocations between short- and longer-term objectives (i.e., drinking and saving for the future). Standardized odds ratios (OR) based on changes in standard deviation units from a multinomial logistic regression indicated that increases on this “Alcohol-Savings Discretionary Expenditure” index predicted higher rates of both abstinence (OR = 1.93, p = .004) and relapse (OR = 2.89, p moderation outcomes. The index had incremental utility in predicting moderation in complex models that included other established predictors. The study adds to evidence supporting a behavioral economic analysis of drinking resolutions and shows that a systematic analysis of pre-resolution spending patterns aids in predicting moderation. PMID:19309182

Predicting waist circumference from body mass index

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Bozeman Samuel R

2012-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Being overweight or obese increases risk for cardiometabolic disorders. Although both body mass index (BMI and waist circumference (WC measure the level of overweight and obesity, WC may be more important because of its closer relationship to total body fat. Because WC is typically not assessed in clinical practice, this study sought to develop and verify a model to predict WC from BMI and demographic data, and to use the predicted WC to assess cardiometabolic risk. Methods Data were obtained from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES and the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study (ARIC. We developed linear regression models for men and women using NHANES data, fitting waist circumference as a function of BMI. For validation, those regressions were applied to ARIC data, assigning a predicted WC to each individual. We used the predicted WC to assess abdominal obesity and cardiometabolic risk. Results The model correctly classified 88.4% of NHANES subjects with respect to abdominal obesity. Median differences between actual and predicted WC were − 0.07 cm for men and 0.11 cm for women. In ARIC, the model closely estimated the observed WC (median difference: − 0.34 cm for men, +3.94 cm for women, correctly classifying 86.1% of ARIC subjects with respect to abdominal obesity and 91.5% to 99.5% as to cardiometabolic risk. The model is generalizable to Caucasian and African-American adult populations because it was constructed from data on a large, population-based sample of men and women in the United States, and then validated in a population with a larger representation of African-Americans. Conclusions The model accurately estimates WC and identifies cardiometabolic risk. It should be useful for health care practitioners and public health officials who wish to identify individuals and populations at risk for cardiometabolic disease when WC data are unavailable.

A novel fibrosis index comprising a non-cholesterol sterol accurately predicts HCV-related liver cirrhosis.

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Magdalena Ydreborg

Full Text Available Diagnosis of liver cirrhosis is essential in the management of chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV infection. Liver biopsy is invasive and thus entails a risk of complications as well as a potential risk of sampling error. Therefore, non-invasive diagnostic tools are preferential. The aim of the present study was to create a model for accurate prediction of liver cirrhosis based on patient characteristics and biomarkers of liver fibrosis, including a panel of non-cholesterol sterols reflecting cholesterol synthesis and absorption and secretion. We evaluated variables with potential predictive significance for liver fibrosis in 278 patients originally included in a multicenter phase III treatment trial for chronic HCV infection. A stepwise multivariate logistic model selection was performed with liver cirrhosis, defined as Ishak fibrosis stage 5-6, as the outcome variable. A new index, referred to as Nordic Liver Index (NoLI in the paper, was based on the model: Log-odds (predicting cirrhosis = -12.17+ (age × 0.11 + (BMI (kg/m(2 × 0.23 + (D7-lathosterol (μg/100 mg cholesterol×(-0.013 + (Platelet count (x10(9/L × (-0.018 + (Prothrombin-INR × 3.69. The area under the ROC curve (AUROC for prediction of cirrhosis was 0.91 (95% CI 0.86-0.96. The index was validated in a separate cohort of 83 patients and the AUROC for this cohort was similar (0.90; 95% CI: 0.82-0.98. In conclusion, the new index may complement other methods in diagnosing cirrhosis in patients with chronic HCV infection.

Sex linked versus autosomal inbreeding coefficient in close consanguineous marriages in the Basque country and Castile (Spain): genetic implications.

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Calderón, R; Morales, B; Peña, J A; Delgado, J

1995-10-01

Pedigree structures of 161 uncle/niece-aunt/nephew and 4420 first cousin consanguineous marriages registered during the 19th and 20th centuries in two large and very different Spanish regions have been analysed and their genetic consequences evaluated. The frequencies of the different pedigree subtypes within each degree of relationship were quite similar in both populations despite significant heterogeneity in inbreeding patterns. The mean X-linked inbreeding coefficient (Fx) for each type of cousin mating was calculated and compared to that expected for autosomal genes (F). The effect of genealogical structure on the Fx/F ratio was compared to different cultural populations worldwide. Preferentiality and avoidance of close consanguinity along with specific types of pedigrees are discussed on the basis of premarital migration and sociocultural rules still deeply rooted in certain human groups. By admitting that the observed Fx coefficient is usually higher than F in most human populations some remarks have been made in terms of population genetic risk.

Fatty Liver Index and Lipid Accumulation Product Can Predict Metabolic Syndrome in Subjects without Fatty Liver Disease

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Yuan-Lung Cheng

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Background. Fatty liver index (FLI and lipid accumulation product (LAP are indexes originally designed to assess the risk of fatty liver and cardiovascular disease, respectively. Both indexes have been proven to be reliable markers of subsequent metabolic syndrome; however, their ability to predict metabolic syndrome in subjects without fatty liver disease has not been clarified. Methods. We enrolled consecutive subjects who received health check-up services at Taipei Veterans General Hospital from 2002 to 2009. Fatty liver disease was diagnosed by abdominal ultrasonography. The ability of the FLI and LAP to predict metabolic syndrome was assessed by analyzing the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC curve. Results. Male sex was strongly associated with metabolic syndrome, and the LAP and FLI were better than other variables to predict metabolic syndrome among the 29,797 subjects. Both indexes were also better than other variables to detect metabolic syndrome in subjects without fatty liver disease (AUROC: 0.871 and 0.879, resp., and the predictive power was greater among women. Conclusion. Metabolic syndrome increases the cardiovascular disease risk. The FLI and LAP could be used to recognize the syndrome in both subjects with and without fatty liver disease who require lifestyle modifications and counseling.

An index predictive of cognitive outcome in retired professional American Football players with a history of sports concussion.

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Wright, Mathew J; Woo, Ellen; Birath, J Brandon; Siders, Craig A; Kelly, Daniel F; Wang, Christina; Swerdloff, Ronald; Romero, Elizabeth; Kernan, Claudia; Cantu, Robert C; Guskiewicz, Kevin

2016-01-01

Various concussion characteristics and personal factors are associated with cognitive recovery in athletes. We developed an index based on concussion frequency, severity, and timeframe, as well as cognitive reserve (CR), and we assessed its predictive power regarding cognitive ability in retired professional football players. Data from 40 retired professional American football players were used in the current study. On average, participants had been retired from football for 20 years. Current neuropsychological performances, indicators of CR, concussion history, and play data were used to create an index for predicting cognitive outcome. The sample displayed a range of concussions, concussion severities, seasons played, CR, and cognitive ability. Many of the participants demonstrated cognitive deficits. The index strongly predicted global cognitive ability (R(2) = .31). The index also predicted the number of areas of neuropsychological deficit, which varied as a function of the deficit classification system used (Heaton: R(2) = .15; Wechsler: R(2) = .28). The current study demonstrated that a unique combination of CR, sports concussion, and game-related data can predict cognitive outcomes in participants who had been retired from professional American football for an average of 20 years. Such indices may prove to be useful for clinical decision making and research.

The predictive content of CBOE crude oil volatility index

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Chen, Hongtao; Liu, Li; Li, Xiaolei

2018-02-01

Volatility forecasting is an important issue in the area of econophysics. The information content of implied volatility for financial return volatility has been well documented in the literature but very few studies focus on oil volatility. In this paper, we show that the CBOE crude oil volatility index (OVX) has predictive ability for spot volatility of WTI and Brent oil returns, from both in-sample and out-of-sample perspectives. Including OVX-based implied volatility in GARCH-type volatility models can improve forecasting accuracy most of time. The predictability from OVX to spot volatility is also found for longer forecasting horizons of 5 days and 20 days. The simple GARCH(1,1) and fractionally integrated GARCH with OVX performs significantly better than the other OVX models and all 6 univariate GARCH-type models without OVX. Robustness test results suggest that OVX provides different information from as short-term interest rate.

Artificial Neural Network and Genetic Algorithm Hybrid Intelligence for Predicting Thai Stock Price Index Trend

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Boonjing, Veera; Intakosum, Sarun

2016-01-01

This study investigated the use of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Genetic Algorithm (GA) for prediction of Thailand's SET50 index trend. ANN is a widely accepted machine learning method that uses past data to predict future trend, while GA is an algorithm that can find better subsets of input variables for importing into ANN, hence enabling more accurate prediction by its efficient feature selection. The imported data were chosen technical indicators highly regarded by stock analysts, each represented by 4 input variables that were based on past time spans of 4 different lengths: 3-, 5-, 10-, and 15-day spans before the day of prediction. This import undertaking generated a big set of diverse input variables with an exponentially higher number of possible subsets that GA culled down to a manageable number of more effective ones. SET50 index data of the past 6 years, from 2009 to 2014, were used to evaluate this hybrid intelligence prediction accuracy, and the hybrid's prediction results were found to be more accurate than those made by a method using only one input variable for one fixed length of past time span. PMID:27974883

Artificial Neural Network and Genetic Algorithm Hybrid Intelligence for Predicting Thai Stock Price Index Trend

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Montri Inthachot

2016-01-01

Full Text Available This study investigated the use of Artificial Neural Network (ANN and Genetic Algorithm (GA for prediction of Thailand’s SET50 index trend. ANN is a widely accepted machine learning method that uses past data to predict future trend, while GA is an algorithm that can find better subsets of input variables for importing into ANN, hence enabling more accurate prediction by its efficient feature selection. The imported data were chosen technical indicators highly regarded by stock analysts, each represented by 4 input variables that were based on past time spans of 4 different lengths: 3-, 5-, 10-, and 15-day spans before the day of prediction. This import undertaking generated a big set of diverse input variables with an exponentially higher number of possible subsets that GA culled down to a manageable number of more effective ones. SET50 index data of the past 6 years, from 2009 to 2014, were used to evaluate this hybrid intelligence prediction accuracy, and the hybrid’s prediction results were found to be more accurate than those made by a method using only one input variable for one fixed length of past time span.

Prediction of clamp-derived insulin sensitivity from the oral glucose insulin sensitivity index

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tura, Andrea; Chemello, Gaetano; Szendroedi, Julia

2018-01-01

that underwent both a clamp and an OGTT or meal test, thereby allowing calculation of both the M value and OGIS. The population was divided into a training and a validation cohort (n = 359 and n = 154, respectively). After a stepwise selection approach, the best model for M value prediction was applied......AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The euglycaemic-hyperinsulinaemic clamp is the gold-standard method for measuring insulin sensitivity, but is less suitable for large clinical trials. Thus, several indices have been developed for evaluating insulin sensitivity from the oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT). However......, most of them yield values different from those obtained by the clamp method. The aim of this study was to develop a new index to predict clamp-derived insulin sensitivity (M value) from the OGTT-derived oral glucose insulin sensitivity index (OGIS). METHODS: We analysed datasets of people...

Evidence of high inbreeding in a population of the endangered giant anteater, Myrmecophaga tridactyla (Myrmecophagidae, from Emas National Park, Brazil

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Rosane G. Collevatti

2007-01-01

Full Text Available We report the genetic structure, relatedness and mating structure of a population of the endangered giant anteater Myrmecophaga tridactyla Linnaeus, 1758 in the Emas National Park, Brazil, based on variability at five microsatellite loci. Additionally, we addressed the hypothesis that the M. tridactyla population studied has low levels of polymorphism and high levels of inbreeding and relatedness and that animals with overlapping home range are highly related. All five microsatellite loci displayed low levels of polymorphism and of expected and observed heterozygosity. The low level of polymorphism and high inbreeding showed by the population studied may be the outcome of high mortality and reduction in population size due to recurrent fire events in the Emas National Park, as reported in 1994. The reduction in population size may have led to a higher frequency of mating between closely related animals, augmented by the isolation of the population in the park because of the expansion of agricultural land and fragmentation of the Cerrado environment. The natural history of M. tridactyla and the phylopatric (sex-biased dispersal behavior of females should increase the effects of isolation and bottlenecking, decreasing gene flow and increasing inbreeding. However, the low levels of polymorphism found in this population may simply be due to the natural history and evolution of M. tridactyla as reported for other species. The genetic structure and dynamics of this population needs to be investigated more profoundly in order to provide sound data for the design of conservation strategies for M. tridactyla in the Emas National Park.

Lowered Diversity and Increased Inbreeding Depression within Peripheral Populations of Wild Rice Oryza rufipogon.

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Gao, Li-Zhi; Gao, Cheng-Wen

2016-01-01

The distribution of genetic variability from the interior towards the periphery of a species' range is of great interest to evolutionary biologists. Although it has been long presumed that population genetic variation should decrease as a species' range is approached, results of empirical investigations still remain ambiguous. Knowledge regarding patterns of genetic variability as well as affected factors is particularly not conclusive in plants. To determine genetic divergence in peripheral populations of the wild rice Oryza rufipogon Griff. from China, genetic diversity and population structure were studied in five northern & northeastern peripheral and 16 central populations using six microsatellite loci. We found that populations resided at peripheries of the species possessed markedly decreased microsatellite diversity than those located in its center. Population size was observed to be positively correlated with microsatellite diversity. Moreover, there are significantly positive correlations between levels of microsatellite diversity and distances from the northern and northeastern periphery of this species. To investigate genetic structure and heterozygosity variation between generations of O. rufipogon, a total of 2382 progeny seeds from 186 maternal families were further assayed from three peripheral and central populations, respectively. Peripheral populations exhibited significantly lower levels of heterozygosities than central populations for both seed and maternal generations. In comparisons with maternal samples, significantly low observed heterozygosity (HO) and high heterozygote deficit within populations (FIS) values were detected in seed samples from both peripheral and central populations. Significantly lower observed heterozygosity (HO) and higher FIS values were further observed in peripheral populations than those in central populations for seed samples. The results indicate an excess of homozygotes and thus high inbreeding depression in

Prediction of Cerebral Hyperperfusion Syndrome with Velocity Blood Pressure Index

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Zhi-Chao Lai

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Background: Cerebral hyperperfusion syndrome is an important complication of carotid endarterectomy (CEA. An >100% increase in middle cerebral artery velocity (MCAV after CEA is used to predict the cerebral hyperperfusion syndrome (CHS development, but the accuracy is limited. The increase in blood pressure (BP after surgery is a risk factor of CHS, but no study uses it to predict CHS. This study was to create a more precise parameter for prediction of CHS by combined the increase of MCAV and BP after CEA. Methods: Systolic MCAV measured by transcranial Doppler and systematic BP were recorded preoperatively; 30 min postoperatively. The new parameter velocity BP index (VBI was calculated from the postoperative increase ratios of MCAV and BP. The prediction powers of VBI and the increase ratio of MCAV (velocity ratio [VR] were compared for predicting CHS occurrence. Results: Totally, 6/185 cases suffered CHS. The best-fit cut-off point of 2.0 for VBI was identified, which had 83.3% sensitivity, 98.3% specificity, 62.5% positive predictive value and 99.4% negative predictive value for CHS development. This result is significantly better than VR (33.3%, 97.2%, 28.6% and 97.8%. The area under the curve (AUC of receiver operating characteristic: AUC VBI = 0.981, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.949-0.995; AUC VR = 0.935, 95% CI 0.890-0.966, P = 0.02. Conclusions: The new parameter VBI can more accurately predict patients at risk of CHS after CEA. This observation needs to be validated by larger studies.

Prediction of Cerebral Hyperperfusion Syndrome with Velocity Blood Pressure Index.

Science.gov (United States)

Lai, Zhi-Chao; Liu, Bao; Chen, Yu; Ni, Leng; Liu, Chang-Wei

2015-06-20

Cerebral hyperperfusion syndrome is an important complication of carotid endarterectomy (CEA). An >100% increase in middle cerebral artery velocity (MCAV) after CEA is used to predict the cerebral hyperperfusion syndrome (CHS) development, but the accuracy is limited. The increase in blood pressure (BP) after surgery is a risk factor of CHS, but no study uses it to predict CHS. This study was to create a more precise parameter for prediction of CHS by combined the increase of MCAV and BP after CEA. Systolic MCAV measured by transcranial Doppler and systematic BP were recorded preoperatively; 30 min postoperatively. The new parameter velocity BP index (VBI) was calculated from the postoperative increase ratios of MCAV and BP. The prediction powers of VBI and the increase ratio of MCAV (velocity ratio [VR]) were compared for predicting CHS occurrence. Totally, 6/185 cases suffered CHS. The best-fit cut-off point of 2.0 for VBI was identified, which had 83.3% sensitivity, 98.3% specificity, 62.5% positive predictive value and 99.4% negative predictive value for CHS development. This result is significantly better than VR (33.3%, 97.2%, 28.6% and 97.8%). The area under the curve (AUC) of receiver operating characteristic: AUC(VBI) = 0.981, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.949-0.995; AUC(VR) = 0.935, 95% CI 0.890-0.966, P = 0.02. The new parameter VBI can more accurately predict patients at risk of CHS after CEA. This observation needs to be validated by larger studies.

Correlation between incidences of self-inflicted burns and means of inbreeding coefficients, an ecologic study.

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Saadat, Mostafa; Zendeh-Boodi, Zahra

2006-09-01

The aim of the study is to obtain more insight into the possible association between consanguinity and the incidence of deliberate self-burning. Data were obtained by analysis of medical records of patients hospitalized in two referral burn centers: Chormy Burn Center (Bushehr Province, south of Iran) from March 21, 1998, through March 20, 2004, and Shahid Sadoqi Center of Burns and Injuries (Yazd Province, center of Iran) from March 21, 2000, through March 20, 2004. The incidence of suicidal burns was 6.51 and 2.32/100,000 person-years for Bushehr and Yazd Provinces, respectively. The observed sex ratio of patients in both centers indicated there was a female predominance in patients with self-inflicted burns. Using patients' home addresses, patients were sorted into 16 cities. The incidence of suicide by self-burning ranged from 0.80 (for Tabas, located in Yazd Province) to 12.60/100,000 person-years (for Dilam, located in Bushehr Province). The coefficient of inbreeding defines the probability that an individual received both alleles of a pair from an identical ancestral source. There was a significant correlation between incidences of suicidal burns and mean coefficient of inbreeding (r = 0.782, df = 14, p < 0.001). In addition to other factors, consanguineous marriage may be a risk factor that influences the incidence of suicidal burns in a population.

Extinction of mammalian populations in conservation units of the Brazilian Cerrado by inbreeding depression in stochastic environments

OpenAIRE

Silva, Marcel Müller Fernandes Pereira da; Diniz-Filho, José Alexandre Felizola

2008-01-01

Despite methodological and theoretical advances in conservation genetics, data on genetic variation on broad regional spatial scales are still scarce, leading conservation planners to use general heuristic or simulation models for an integrated analysis of genetic, demographic and landscape parameters. Here, we extended previous results by evaluating spatial patterns of extinction by inbreeding depression under stochastic variation of environments for mammalian populations in 31 conservation ...

The Doppler echocardiographic myocardial performance index predicts left-ventricular dilation and cardiac death after myocardial infarction

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Møller, J E; Søndergaard, E; Poulsen, S H

2001-01-01

To investigate the value of the Doppler-derived myocardial performance index to predict early left-ventricular (LV) dilation and cardiac death after a first acute myocardial infarction (AMI), Doppler echocardiography was performed within 24 h of hospital admission, on day 5, 1 and 3 months after...... AMI in 125 consecutive patients. The index measured on day 1 correlated well with the change in end-diastolic volume index observed from day 1 to 3 months following AMI (r = 0.66, p 0.0001). One-year survival in patients with Doppler index index > or = 0......, we conclude that the Doppler echocardiographic myocardial performance index is a predictor of LV dilation and cardiac death after a first AMI....

Basal and induced granulopoiesis in outbred, F1 hybrid and inbred mice: can inbreeding depression influence the experimental practice?

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Hofer, Michal; Pospíšil, Milan; Dušek, L.; Holá, Jiřina; Hoferová, Zuzana; Weiterová, Lenka

2010-01-01

Roč. 235, č. 8 (2010), s. 928-931 ISSN 1535-3702 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA305/08/0158 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z50040507; CEZ:AV0Z50040702 Keywords : hematopoiesis * outbred mice * inbreeding depression Subject RIV: BO - Biophysics Impact factor: 2.954, year: 2010

Predictive performance of the visceral adiposity index for a visceral adiposity-related risk: Type 2 Diabetes

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Azizi Fereidoun

2011-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Visceral adiposity index (VAI has recently been developed based on waist circumference, body mass index (BMI, triglycerides (TGs, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C. We examined predictive performances for incident diabetes of the VAI per se and as compared to the metabolic syndrome (MetS and waist-to-height-ratio (WHtR. Methods Participants free of diabetes at baseline with at least one follow-up examination (5,964 were included for the current study. Weibull regression models were developed for interval-censored survival data. Absolute and relative integrated discriminatory improvement index (IDI and cut-point-based and cut-point-free net reclassification improvement index (NRI were used as measures of predictive ability for incident diabetes added by VAI, as compared to the MetS and WHtR. Results The annual incidence rate of diabetes was 0.85 per 1000 person. Mean VAI was 3.06 (95%CIs 2.99-3.13. Diabetes risk factors levels increased in stepwise fashion across VAI quintiles. Risk gradient between the highest and lowest quintile of VAI was 4.5 (95%CIs 3.0-6.9. VAI significantly improved predictive ability of the MetS. The relative IDI and cut-point free NRI for predictive ability added to MetS by VAI were 30.3% (95%CIs 18.8-41.8% and 30.7% (95%CIs 20.8-40.7%, respectively. WHtR, outperformed VAI with cut-point-free NRI of 24.6% (95%CIs 14.1-35.2%. Conclusions In conclusion, although VAI could be a prognostic tool for incident diabetes events, gathering information on its components (WC, BMI, TGs, and HDL-C is unlikely to improve the prediction ability beyond what could be achieved by the simply assessable and commonly available information on WHtR.

Reproductive Success and Inbreeding Differ in Fragmented Populations of Pinus rzedowskii and Pinus ayacahuite var. veitchii, Two Endemic Mexican Pines under Threat

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Paty Castilleja Sánchez

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Seed production, quality, germination and seedling establishment are indicators of reproductive success in conifers. Monitoring of these parameters is essential to determine the viability of populations for the purposes of conservation. We analyze cone and seed traits as indicators of reproductive success in the endangered Rzedowski´s pine (Pinus rzedowskii (Madrigal et Caballero and near-threatened veitchii pine (Pinus ayacahuite var. veitchii (Shaw in west-central Michoacán, Mexico. These traits were systematically quantified and their variation assessed using Generalized Linear Mixed Models (GLMMs. We found that the reproductive success of Rzedowski’s pine seems to be critical, presenting low seed efficiency (17.10%, germination (5.0% and seedling establishment (27.7%, with high levels of inbreeding (0.79. In contrast, veitchii pine presents moderate seed efficiency (54.9%, high germination (71.5% and seedling establishment (84%–97% and low inbreeding (0.33. Reproductive indicators differed significantly among zones and populations for each species, where fragment sizes mainly affected seed production and efficiency. This result indicates that fragmentation has played a more important role in the reproductive success of Rzedowski’s pine than in veitchii pine, perhaps by limiting pollen flow among zones and populations and producing higher levels of inbreeding and lower seed efficiency in the former species. We propose a conservation strategy for these important pine species in order to increase their long-term genetic viability.

Strong inbreeding depression and individually variable mating system in the narrow endemic Erodium cazorlanum (Geraniaceae

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Alonso, Conchita

2013-06-01

Full Text Available Angiosperms evolved different systems to attract effective pollinators while reducing selfing in hermaphroditic flowers. Selfing ability can be advantageous when pollinators and/or mates are scarce, although inbreeding depression may largely reduce those advantages. Recent comparative analyses suggested endemic species tend to evolve self-compatibility but a better understanding of the associated reproductive and genetic tradeoffs is required. Experimental hand-pollinations under greenhouse conditions were conducted to investigate the selfing ability and estimate inbreeding depression up to the offspring’ first reproductive event in Ero dium cazorlanum, a narrow endemic species restricted to dolomite outcrops in SE Spanish mountains. We found autonomous selfing ineffective. Further, when experimentally applied, pollen of the same flower produced significantly fewer fruits and seeds compared to geitonogamous and cross pollinations. The number of seeds per fruit was significantly higher after cross pollinations and strong inbreeding depression accumulated through the life-cycle. Interestingly, individual plants exhibited broad variation in selfing ability with six out of 14 individuals producing no seed after geitonogamy. Understanding the consequences of individual variation in self compatibility deserves further investigation in the field now that we know that strong inbreeding depression may limit recruitment of selfed progeny.Las Angiospermas han desarrollado diversos sistemas para atraer polinizadores eficientes y al mismo tiempo reducir la posibilidad de autopolinización asociada al hermafroditismo. La capacidad de autopolinización puede ser ventajosa en situaciones de escasez de polinizadores y/o individuos reproductores, beneficios que pueden reducirse ampliamente a causa de la depresión por endogamia. Análisis filogenéticos recientes indicaron que las especies endémicas tienden a presentar sistemas de autocompatibilidad, por tanto

Predicting Jakarta composite index using hybrid of fuzzy time series and support vector regression models

Science.gov (United States)

Febrian Umbara, Rian; Tarwidi, Dede; Budi Setiawan, Erwin

2018-03-01

The paper discusses the prediction of Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) in Indonesia Stock Exchange. The study is based on JCI historical data for 1286 days to predict the value of JCI one day ahead. This paper proposes predictions done in two stages., The first stage using Fuzzy Time Series (FTS) to predict values of ten technical indicators, and the second stage using Support Vector Regression (SVR) to predict the value of JCI one day ahead, resulting in a hybrid prediction model FTS-SVR. The performance of this combined prediction model is compared with the performance of the single stage prediction model using SVR only. Ten technical indicators are used as input for each model.

An efficient link prediction index for complex military organization

Science.gov (United States)

Fan, Changjun; Liu, Zhong; Lu, Xin; Xiu, Baoxin; Chen, Qing

2017-03-01

Quality of information is crucial for decision-makers to judge the battlefield situations and design the best operation plans, however, real intelligence data are often incomplete and noisy, where missing links prediction methods and spurious links identification algorithms can be applied, if modeling the complex military organization as the complex network where nodes represent functional units and edges denote communication links. Traditional link prediction methods usually work well on homogeneous networks, but few for the heterogeneous ones. And the military network is a typical heterogeneous network, where there are different types of nodes and edges. In this paper, we proposed a combined link prediction index considering both the nodes' types effects and nodes' structural similarities, and demonstrated that it is remarkably superior to all the 25 existing similarity-based methods both in predicting missing links and identifying spurious links in a real military network data; we also investigated the algorithms' robustness under noisy environment, and found the mistaken information is more misleading than incomplete information in military areas, which is different from that in recommendation systems, and our method maintained the best performance under the condition of small noise. Since the real military network intelligence must be carefully checked at first due to its significance, and link prediction methods are just adopted to purify the network with the left latent noise, the method proposed here is applicable in real situations. In the end, as the FINC-E model, here used to describe the complex military organizations, is also suitable to many other social organizations, such as criminal networks, business organizations, etc., thus our method has its prospects in these areas for many tasks, like detecting the underground relationships between terrorists, predicting the potential business markets for decision-makers, and so on.

Deepening Our Understanding of Academic Inbreeding Effects on Research Information Exchange and Scientific Output: New Insights for Academic Based Research

Science.gov (United States)

Horta, Hugo

2013-01-01

This paper analyzes the impact of academic inbreeding in relation to academic research, and proposes a new conceptual framework for its analysis. We find that mobility (or lack of) at the early research career stage is decisive in influencing academic behaviors and scientific productivity. Less mobile academics have more inward oriented…

Fatty liver index and hepatic steatosis index for prediction of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in type 1 diabetes.

Science.gov (United States)

Sviklāne, Laura; Olmane, Evija; Dzērve, Zane; Kupčs, Kārlis; Pīrāgs, Valdis; Sokolovska, Jeļizaveta

2018-01-01

Little is known about the diagnostic value of hepatic steatosis index (HSI) and fatty liver index (FLI), as well as their link to metabolic syndrome in type 1 diabetes mellitus. We have screened the effectiveness of FLI and HSI in an observational pilot study of 40 patients with type 1 diabetes. FLI and HSI were calculated for 201 patients with type 1 diabetes. Forty patients with FLI/HSI values corresponding to different risk of liver steatosis were invited for liver magnetic resonance study. In-phase/opposed-phase technique of magnetic resonance was used. Accuracy of indices was assessed from the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Twelve (30.0%) patients had liver steatosis. For FLI, sensitivity was 90%; specificity, 74%; positive likelihood ratio, 3.46; negative likelihood ratio, 0.14; positive predictive value, 0.64; and negative predictive value, 0.93. For HSI, sensitivity was 86%; specificity, 66%; positive likelihood ratio, 1.95; negative likelihood ratio, 0.21; positive predictive value, 0.50; and negative predictive value, 0.92. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for FLI was 0.86 (95% confidence interval [0.72; 0.99]); for HSI 0.75 [0.58; 0.91]. Liver fat correlated with liver enzymes, waist circumference, triglycerides, and C-reactive protein. FLI correlated with C-reactive protein, liver enzymes, and blood pressure. HSI correlated with waist circumference and C-reactive protein. FLI ≥ 60 and HSI ≥ 36 were significantly associated with metabolic syndrome and nephropathy. The tested indices, especially FLI, can serve as surrogate markers for liver fat content and metabolic syndrome in type 1 diabetes. © 2017 Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Foundation and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

Predicting pavement condition index using international roughness index in Washington DC.

Science.gov (United States)

2014-09-01

A number of pavement condition indices are used to conduct pavement management assessments, two of which are the : International Roughness Index (IRI) and Pavement Condition Index (PCI). The IRI is typically measured using specialized : equipment tha...

Harbor porpoise Phocoena phocoena strandings on the Dutch coast: No genetic structure, but evidence of inbreeding

Science.gov (United States)

van der Plas-Duivesteijn, Suzanne J.; Smit, Femmie J. L.; van Alphen, Jacques J. M.; Kraaijeveld, Ken

2015-03-01

Conservation management in the North Sea is often motivated by the population size of marine mammals, like harbor porpoises Phocoena phocoena. In the Dutch part of the North Sea, sighting and stranding data are used to estimate population sizes, but these data give little insight into genetic structuring of the population. In this study we investigated genetic structure among animals stranded at different locations and times of year. We also tested whether there is a link between stranding and necropsy data, and genetic diversity. We made use of both mitochondrial (mtDNA) and microsatellite DNA analysis of samples from dead stranded porpoises along the Dutch coast during 2007. mtDNA analysis showed 6 variable positions in the control region, defining 3 different haplotypes. mtDNA haplotypes were not randomly distributed along the Dutch coastline. However, microsatellite analysis showed that these mtDNA haplotypes did not represent separate groups on a nuclear level. Furthermore, microsatellite analysis revealed no genotypic differences between seasons, locations or genders. The results of this study indicate that the Dutch population is panmictic. In contrast, heterozygosity levels were low, indicating some level of inbreeding in this population. However, this was not corroborated by other indices of inbreeding. This research provided insight into genetic structuring of stranded porpoises in 2007, but data from multiple years should be included to be able to help estimate population sizes.

The TyG index may predict the development of cardiovascular events.

Science.gov (United States)

Sánchez-Íñigo, Laura; Navarro-González, David; Fernández-Montero, Alejandro; Pastrana-Delgado, Juan; Martínez, Jose Alfredo

2016-02-01

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the worldwide leading cause of morbidity and mortality. An early risk detection of apparently healthy people before CVD onset has clinical relevance in the prevention of cardiovascular events. We evaluated the association between the product of fasting plasma glucose and triglycerides (TyG index) and CVD. A total of 5014 patients of the Vascular Metabolic CUN cohort (VMCUN cohort) were followed up during a median period of 10 years. We used a Cox proportional-hazard ratio with repeated measures to estimate the risk of incidence of CVD across quintiles of the TyG index, calculated as ln[fasting triglycerides (mg/dL) × fasting plasma glucose (mg(dL)/2], and plotted a receiver-operating characteristics (ROC) curve to compare a prediction model fitted on the variables used in the Framingham risk score, a new model containing the Framingham variables with the TyG index, and the risk of coronary heart disease. A higher level of TyG index was significantly associated with an increased risk of developing CVD independent of confounding factors with a value of 2·32 (95% CI: 1·65-3·26) for those in the highest quintile and 1·52 (95% CI: 1·07-2·16) for those in the fourth quintile. The areas under the curve (AUC) of the ROC plots were 0·708 (0·68-0·73) for the Framingham model and 0·719 (0·70-0·74) for the Framingham + TyG index model (P = 0·014). The TyG index, a simple measure reflecting insulin resistance, might be useful to early identify individuals at a high risk of developing a cardiovascular event. © 2015 Stichting European Society for Clinical Investigation Journal Foundation.

Mating animals by minimising the covariance between ancestral contributions generates less inbreeding without compromising genetic gain in breeding schemes with truncation selection

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Henryon, M; Berg, P; Sørensen, A C

2009-01-01

We reasoned that mating animals by minimising the covariance between ancestral contributions (MCAC mating) will generate less inbreeding and at least as much genetic gain as minimum-coancestry mating in breeding schemes where the animals are truncation-selected. We tested this hypothesis by stoch...

Extremes of shock index predicts death in trauma patients

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Stephen R Odom

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Context: We noted a bimodal relationship between mortality and shock index (SI, the ratio of heart rate to systolic blood pressure. Aims: To determine if extremes of SI can predict mortality in trauma patients. Settings and Designs: Retrospective evaluation of adult trauma patients at a tertiary care center from 2000 to 2012 in the United States. Materials and Methods: We examined the SI in trauma patients and determined the adjusted mortality for patients with and without head injuries. Statistical Analysis Used: Descriptive statistics and multivariable logistic regression. Results: SI values demonstrated a U-shaped relationship with mortality. Compared with patients with a SI between 0.5 and 0.7, patients with a SI of 1.3 had an odds ratio of death of 3.1. (95% CI 1.6–5.9. Elevated SI is associated with increased mortality in patients with isolated torso injuries, and is associated with death at both low and high values in patients with head injury. Conclusion: Our data indicate a bimodal relationship between SI and mortality in head injured patients that persists after correction for various co-factors. The distribution of mortality is different between head injured patients and patients without head injuries. Elevated SI predicts death in all trauma patients, but low SI values only predict death in head injured patients.

Starch digestibility and predicted glycemic index in the bread fortified with pomelo (Citrus maxima) fruit segments.

Science.gov (United States)

Reshmi, S K; Sudha, M L; Shashirekha, M N

2017-12-15

The aim of this study was to evaluate the starch digestibility and predicted glycemic index in breads incorporated with pomelo fruit (Citrus maxima) segments. Volume of the white and brown breads supplemented with pomelo fresh segments increased, while the crumb firmness decreased. Bread with 20% fresh and 5% dry pomelo segments were sensorily acceptable. Bioactive components such as phenolics, flavonoids, naringin and carotenoids were retained to a greater extent in bread containing dry pomelo segments. The pomelo incorporated bread had higher levels of resistant starch fractions (3.87-10.96%) with low predicted glycemic index (62.97-53.13%), despite their higher total starch (69.87-75.47%) content compared to control bread. Thus pomelo segments in the product formulations lowered the glycemic index probably by inhibiting carbohydrate hydrolyzing enzyme activity which could be attributed to naringin. Hence fortified bread prepared from pomelo fruit segment is recommended to gain nutritional value and to decrease the risk of diabetes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

PREDICTING THE BOILING POINT OF PCDD/Fs BY THE QSPR METHOD BASED ON THE MOLECULAR DISTANCE-EDGE VECTOR INDEX

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Long Jiao

2015-05-01

Full Text Available The quantitative structure property relationship (QSPR for the boiling point (Tb of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs was investigated. The molecular distance-edge vector (MDEV index was used as the structural descriptor. The quantitative relationship between the MDEV index and Tb was modeled by using multivariate linear regression (MLR and artificial neural network (ANN, respectively. Leave-one-out cross validation and external validation were carried out to assess the prediction performance of the models developed. For the MLR method, the prediction root mean square relative error (RMSRE of leave-one-out cross validation and external validation was 1.77 and 1.23, respectively. For the ANN method, the prediction RMSRE of leave-one-out cross validation and external validation was 1.65 and 1.16, respectively. A quantitative relationship between the MDEV index and Tb of PCDD/Fs was demonstrated. Both MLR and ANN are practicable for modeling this relationship. The MLR model and ANN model developed can be used to predict the Tb of PCDD/Fs. Thus, the Tb of each PCDD/F was predicted by the developed models.

Inbreeding trends and pedigree analysis of Bavarian mountain hounds, Hanoverian hounds and Tyrolean hounds.

Science.gov (United States)

Voges, S; Distl, O

2009-10-01

The objective of this study was to analyse genetic diversity for the three scent-hound breeds Bavarian mountain hound (BMH), Hanoverian hound (HH) and Tyrolean hound (TH) using all available pedigree information from scent-hound kennel clubs for these three breeds throughout Europe. The pedigree data of the BMH and the HH date back to 1912 and 1894, respectively. Pedigree data of the TH were available from the 1960s onwards. The reference populations included all BMH (n = 3231), HH (n = 1371) and TH (n = 1167) dogs registered between 1992 and 2004. Average generation intervals were 5.3 years for the BMH and 5.0 years for the HH and TH. Average inbreeding coefficients for the reference populations were 4.5%, 6.8% and 9.5% for the BMH, HH and TH. The effective numbers of founders, ancestors and founder genomes were lowest for the TH and highest for the BMH. The effective numbers of founder genomes were 10.9, 5.6 and 4.3 for the BMH, HH and TH. Effective population size was largest for the BMH with 72.7 effective breeding animals, followed by the HH with 50.9 and TH with 26.5. The most important ten ancestors had genetic contributions to the reference populations of 54.4%, 65.2% and 77.9% in the BMH, HH and TH. The results of our study indicate the need for careful breed management in these highly specialized hound breeds to maintain genetic diversity. European stud books should be established for these dog breeds in order to avoid inbreeding due to missing pedigree records.

Prediction of SYM-H index during large storms by NARX neural network from IMF and solar wind data

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L. Cai

2010-02-01

Full Text Available Similar to the Dst index, the SYM-H index may also serve as an indicator of magnetic storm intensity, but having distinct advantage of higher time-resolution. In this study the NARX neural network has been used for the first time to predict SYM-H index from solar wind (SW and IMF parameters. In total 73 time intervals of great storm events with IMF/SW data available from ACE satellite during 1998 to 2006 are used to establish the ANN model. Out of them, 67 are used to train the network and the other 6 samples for test. Additionally, the NARX prediction model is also validated using IMF/SW data from WIND satellite for 7 great storms during 1995–1997 and 2005, as well as for the July 2000 Bastille day storm and November 2001 superstorm using Geotail and OMNI data at 1 AU, respectively. Five interplanetary parameters of IMF B_z, B_y and total B components along with proton density and velocity of solar wind are used as the original external inputs of the neural network to predict the SYM-H index about one hour ahead. For the 6 test storms registered by ACE including two super-storms of min. SYM-H<−200 nT, the correlation coefficient between observed and NARX network predicted SYM-H is 0.95 as a whole, even as high as 0.95 and 0.98 with average relative variance of 13.2% and 7.4%, respectively, for the two super-storms. The prediction for the 7 storms with WIND data is also satisfactory, showing averaged correlation coefficient about 0.91 and RMSE of 14.2 nT. The newly developed NARX model shows much better capability than Elman network for SYM-H prediction, which can partly be attributed to a key feedback to the input layer from the output neuron with a suitable length (about 120 min. This feedback means that nearly real information of the ring current status is effectively directed to take part in the prediction of SYM-H index by ANN. The proper history length of the output-feedback may mainly reflect

Prediction of SYM-H index during large storms by NARX neural network from IMF and solar wind data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. Cai

2010-02-01

Full Text Available Similar to the Dst index, the SYM-H index may also serve as an indicator of magnetic storm intensity, but having distinct advantage of higher time-resolution. In this study the NARX neural network has been used for the first time to predict SYM-H index from solar wind (SW and IMF parameters. In total 73 time intervals of great storm events with IMF/SW data available from ACE satellite during 1998 to 2006 are used to establish the ANN model. Out of them, 67 are used to train the network and the other 6 samples for test. Additionally, the NARX prediction model is also validated using IMF/SW data from WIND satellite for 7 great storms during 1995–1997 and 2005, as well as for the July 2000 Bastille day storm and November 2001 superstorm using Geotail and OMNI data at 1 AU, respectively. Five interplanetary parameters of IMF Bz, By and total B components along with proton density and velocity of solar wind are used as the original external inputs of the neural network to predict the SYM-H index about one hour ahead. For the 6 test storms registered by ACE including two super-storms of min. SYM-H<−200 nT, the correlation coefficient between observed and NARX network predicted SYM-H is 0.95 as a whole, even as high as 0.95 and 0.98 with average relative variance of 13.2% and 7.4%, respectively, for the two super-storms. The prediction for the 7 storms with WIND data is also satisfactory, showing averaged correlation coefficient about 0.91 and RMSE of 14.2 nT. The newly developed NARX model shows much better capability than Elman network for SYM-H prediction, which can partly be attributed to a key feedback to the input layer from the output neuron with a suitable length (about 120 min. This feedback means that nearly real information of the ring current status is effectively directed to take part in the prediction of SYM-H index by ANN. The proper history length of the output-feedback may mainly reflect on average the characteristic time of ring

[The investigation of the influence of cryopreservation and inbreeding on the variability of morphological characteristics of the evening-primrose biennial (Oenothera biennis L.)].

Science.gov (United States)

Chetviverikova, E P; Iashina, S G; Shabaeva, E V; Egorova, E F; Iashina, A V

2005-01-01

The effect of deep freezing of seeds at -196 degrees C (-320.8 degrees Fahrenheit) and inbreeding on the morphological characteristics of the evening-primrose biennal (Oenothera biennis L.), such as the size of plant parts and the amount of fruits, cauline nodes, and generative and vegetative shoots was investigated. The variation coefficients for these characteristics after treatment with low temperatures and inbreeding were calculated. It was shown that the characteristics of plant size show a low and a middle level of variability in the control group. The variation curves for these characteristics are similar to normal distribution curves. After stresses they slightly change or remain invariant. Large adventive shoots show a high level of variability. The distribution of the results in this case significantly differs from the normal. The branching of plants changes after both stress factors: the amount of all kinds of shoots decreases by half or even more.

Development of a risk index for the prediction of chronic post-surgical pain.

Science.gov (United States)

Althaus, A; Hinrichs-Rocker, A; Chapman, R; Arránz Becker, O; Lefering, R; Simanski, C; Weber, F; Moser, K-H; Joppich, R; Trojan, S; Gutzeit, N; Neugebauer, E

2012-07-01

The incidence of chronic post-surgical pain (CPSP) after various common operations is 10% to 50%. Identification of patients at risk of developing chronic pain, and the management and prevention of CPSP remains inadequate. The aim of this study was to develop an easily applicable risk index for the detection of high-risk patients that takes into account the multifactorial aetiology of CPSP. A comprehensive item pool was derived from a systematic literature search. Items that turned out significant in bivariate analyses were then analysed multivariately, using logistic regression analyses. The items that yielded significant predictors in the multivariate analyses were compiled into an index. The cut-off score for a high risk of developing CPSP with an optimal trade-off between sensitivity and specificity was identified. The data of 150 patients who underwent different types of surgery were included in the analyses. Six months after surgery, 43.3% of the patients reported CPSP. Five predictors multivariately contributed to the prediction of CPSP: capacity overload, preoperative pain in the operating field, other chronic preoperative pain, post-surgical acute pain and co-morbid stress symptoms. These results suggest that several easily assessable preoperative and perioperative patient characteristics can predict a patient's risk of developing CPSP. The risk index may help caregivers to tailor individual pain management and to assist high-risk patients with pain coping. © 2011 European Federation of International Association for the Study of Pain Chapters.

Discriminative ability of commonly used indices to predict adverse outcomes after poster lumbar fusion: a comparison of demographics, ASA, the modified Charlson Comorbidity Index, and the modified Frailty Index.

Science.gov (United States)

Ondeck, Nathaniel T; Bohl, Daniel D; Bovonratwet, Patawut; McLynn, Ryan P; Cui, Jonathan J; Shultz, Blake N; Lukasiewicz, Adam M; Grauer, Jonathan N

2018-01-01

As research tools, the American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) physical status classification system, the modified Charlson Comorbidity Index (mCCI), and the modified Frailty Index (mFI) have been associated with complications following spine procedures. However, with respect to clinical use for various adverse outcomes, no known study has compared the predictive performance of these indices specifically following posterior lumbar fusion (PLF). This study aimed to compare the discriminative ability of ASA, mCCI, and mFI, as well as demographic factors including age, body mass index, and gender for perioperative adverse outcomes following PLF. A retrospective review of prospectively collected data was performed. Patients undergoing elective PLF with or without interbody fusion were extracted from the 2011-2014 American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP). Perioperative adverse outcome variables assessed included the occurrence of minor adverse events, severe adverse events, infectious adverse events, any adverse event, extended length of hospital stay, and discharge to higher-level care. Patient comorbidity indices and characteristics were delineated and assessed for discriminative ability in predicting perioperative adverse outcomes using an area under the curve analysis from the receiver operating characteristics curves. In total, 16,495 patients were identified who met the inclusion criteria. The most predictive comorbidity index was ASA and demographic factor was age. Of these two factors, age had the larger discriminative ability for three out of the six adverse outcomes and ASA was the most predictive for one out of six adverse outcomes. A combination of the most predictive demographic factor and comorbidity index resulted in improvements in discriminative ability over the individual components for five of the six outcome variables. For PLF, easily obtained patient ASA and age have overall similar or better

Fecal Calprotectin is an Accurate Tool and Correlated to Seo Index in Prediction of Relapse in Iranian Patients With Ulcerative Colitis.

Science.gov (United States)

Hosseini, Seyed Vahid; Jafari, Peyman; Taghavi, Seyed Alireza; Safarpour, Ali Reza; Rezaianzadeh, Abbas; Moini, Maryam; Mehrabi, Manoosh

2015-02-01

The natural clinical course of Ulcerative Colitis (UC) is characterized by episodes of relapse and remission. Fecal Calprotectin (FC) is a relatively new marker of intestinal inflammation and is an available, non-expensive tool for predicting relapse of quiescent UC. The Seo colitis activity index is a clinical index for assessment of the severity of UC. The present study aimed to evaluate the accuracy of FC and the Seo colitis activity index and their correlation in prediction of UC exacerbation. In this prospective cohort study, 157 patients with clinical and endoscopic diagnosis of UC selected randomly from 1273 registered patients in Fars province's IBD registry center in Shiraz, Iran, were followed from October 2012 to October 2013 for 12 months or shorter, if they had a relapse. Two patients left the study before completion and one patient had relapse because of discontinuation of drugs. The participants' clinical and serum factors were evaluated every three months. Furthermore, stool samples were collected at the beginning of study and every three months and FC concentration (commercially available enzyme linked immunoassay) and the Seo Index were assessed. Then univariate analysis, multiple variable logistic regression, Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curve analysis, and Pearson's correlation test (r) were used for statistical analysis of data. According to the results, 74 patients (48.1%) relapsed during the follow-up (33 men and 41 women). Mean ± SD of FC was 862.82 ± 655.97 μg/g and 163.19 ± 215.85 μg/g in relapsing and non-relapsing patients, respectively (P Seo index were significant predictors of relapse. ROC curve analysis of FC level and Seo activity index for prediction of relapse demonstrated area under the curve of 0.882 (P Seo index was significant in prediction of relapse (r = 0.63, P Seo activity index in prediction of relapse in the course of quiescent UC in Iranian patients.

The prediction of the incidence rate of upper limb musculoskeletal disorders, with CTD risk index method on potters of Meybod city

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Reza Khani Jazani

2012-02-01

Full Text Available Background: The objective of this study was to predict the incidence of musculoskeletal disorders in potters of Meybod city by performing CTD risk index method.Materials and Method: This is a descriptive cross-sectional study. Target society was all workers in pottery workshops which were located in the Meybod. Information related to musculoskeletal disorders was obtained by the Nordic questionnaire and we used CTD risk index method to predict the incidence of musculoskeletal disorders.Results: We observed in this study that 59.3% of the potters had symptoms of musculoskeletal disorders in at least in one of their upper extremities. Also significant differences between mean CTD risk index on potters with and without symptoms of the upper limb musculoskeletal disorders, respectively (p=0.038.Conclusion: CTD risk index method can be as a suitable method for predicting the incidence of musculoskeletal disorders used in the potters

A simplified donor risk index for predicting outcome after deceased donor kidney transplantation.

Science.gov (United States)

Watson, Christopher J E; Johnson, Rachel J; Birch, Rhiannon; Collett, Dave; Bradley, J Andrew

2012-02-15

We sought to determine the deceased donor factors associated with outcome after kidney transplantation and to develop a clinically applicable Kidney Donor Risk Index. Data from the UK Transplant Registry on 7620 adult recipients of adult deceased donor kidney transplants between 2000 and 2007 inclusive were analyzed. Donor factors potentially influencing transplant outcome were investigated using Cox regression, adjusting for significant recipient and transplant factors. A United Kingdom Kidney Donor Risk Index was derived from the model and validated. Donor age was the most significant factor predicting poor transplant outcome (hazard ratio for 18-39 and 60+ years relative to 40-59 years was 0.78 and 1.49, respectively, Pinformed consent.

Frailty Index Predicts All-Cause Mortality for Middle-Aged and Older Taiwanese: Implications for Active-Aging Programs.

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Shu-Yu; Lee, Wei-Ju; Chou, Ming-Yueh; Peng, Li-Ning; Chiou, Shu-Ti; Chen, Liang-Kung

2016-01-01

Frailty Index, defined as an individual's accumulated proportion of listed health-related deficits, is a well-established metric used to assess the health status of old adults; however, it has not yet been developed in Taiwan, and its local related structure factors remain unclear. The objectives were to construct a Taiwan Frailty Index to predict mortality risk, and to explore the structure of its factors. Analytic data on 1,284 participants aged 53 and older were excerpted from the Social Environment and Biomarkers of Aging Study (2006), in Taiwan. A consensus workgroup of geriatricians selected 159 items according to the standard procedure for creating a Frailty Index. Cox proportional hazard modeling was used to explore the association between the Taiwan Frailty Index and mortality. Exploratory factor analysis was used to identify structure factors and produce a shorter version-the Taiwan Frailty Index Short-Form. During an average follow-up of 4.3 ± 0.8 years, 140 (11%) subjects died. Compared to those in the lowest Taiwan Frailty Index tertile ( 0.23) had significantly higher risk of death (Hazard ratio: 3.2; 95% CI 1.9-5.4). Thirty-five items of five structure factors identified by exploratory factor analysis, included: physical activities, life satisfaction and financial status, health status, cognitive function, and stresses. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (C-statistics) of the Taiwan Frailty Index and its Short-Form were 0.80 and 0.78, respectively, with no statistically significant difference between them. Although both the Taiwan Frailty Index and Short-Form were associated with mortality, the Short-Form, which had similar accuracy in predicting mortality as the full Taiwan Frailty Index, would be more expedient in clinical practice and community settings to target frailty screening and intervention.

Accuracy of shock index versus ABC score to predict need for massive transfusion in trauma patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Schroll, Rebecca; Swift, David; Tatum, Danielle; Couch, Stuart; Heaney, Jiselle B; Llado-Farrulla, Monica; Zucker, Shana; Gill, Frances; Brown, Griffin; Buffin, Nicholas; Duchesne, Juan

2018-01-01

Various scoring systems have been developed to predict need for massive transfusion in traumatically injured patients. Assessments of Blood Consumption (ABC) score and Shock Index (SI) have been shown to be reliable predictors for Massive Transfusion Protocol (MTP) activation. However, no study has directly compared these two scoring systems to determine which is a better predictor for MTP activation. The primary objective was to determine whether ABC or SI better predicted the need for MTP in adult trauma patients with severe hemorrhage. This was a retrospective cohort study which included all injured patients who were trauma activations between January 1, 2009 and December 31, 2013 at an urban Level I trauma center. Patients ABC and SI were calculated for each patient. MTP was defined as need for >10 units PRBC transfusion within 24h of emergency department arrival. Sensitivity, specificity, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) were used to evaluate scoring systems' ability to predict effective MTP utilization. A total of 645 patients had complete data for analysis. Shock Index ≥1 had sensitivity of 67.7% (95% CI 49.5%-82.6%) and specificity of 81.3% (95% CI 78.0%-84.3%) for predicting MTP, and ABC score ≥2 had sensitivity of 47.0% (95% CI 29.8%-64.9%) and specificity of 89.8% (95% CI 87.2%-92.1%). AUROC analyses showed SI to be the strongest predictor followed by ABC score with AUROC values of 0.83 and 0.74, respectively. SI had a significantly greater sensitivity (P=0.035), but a significantly weaker specificity (PABC score. ABC score and Shock Index can both be used to predict need for massive transfusion in trauma patients, however SI is more sensitive and requires less technical skill than ABC score. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Relationship between depression with FEV1 percent predicted and BODE index in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Science.gov (United States)

Gunawan, H.; Hanum, H.; Abidin, A.; Hanida, W.

2018-03-01

WHO reported more than 3 million people die from COPD in 2012 and are expected to rank third after cardiovascular and cancer diseases in the future. Recent studies reported the prevalence of depression in COPD patients was higher than in control group. So, it’s important for clinicians to understand the relationship of depression symptoms with clinical aspects of COPD. For determining the association of depression symptoms with lung function and BODE index in patients with stable COPD, a cross-sectional study was in 98 stable COPD outpatients from January to June 2017. Data were analyzed using Independent t-test, Mann-Whitney test, and Spearman’s rank correlation. COPD patients with depression had higher mMRC scores, and lower FEV1 percent predicted, and then 6-Minutes Walk Test compared to those without depression. There was a moderate strength of correlation (r=-0.43) between depression symptoms and FEV1 percent predicted, and strong correlation (r=0.614) between depression symptoms and BODE index. It indicates that BODE index is more accurate to describe symptoms of depression in COPD patients.

Chaos game representation of the D st index and prediction of geomagnetic storm events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yu, Z.G.; Anh, V.V.; Wanliss, J.A.; Watson, S.M.

2007-01-01

This paper proposes a two-dimensional chaos game representation (CGR) for the D st index. The CGR provides an effective method to characterize the multifractality of the D st time series. The probability measure of this representation is then modeled as a recurrent iterated function system in fractal theory, which leads to an algorithm for prediction of a storm event. We present an analysis and modeling of the D st time series over the period 1963-2003. The numerical results obtained indicate that the method is useful in predicting storm events one day ahead

Central venous pressure and shock index predict lack of hemodynamic response to volume expansion in septic shock: a prospective, observational study.

Science.gov (United States)

Lanspa, Michael J; Brown, Samuel M; Hirshberg, Eliotte L; Jones, Jason P; Grissom, Colin K

2012-12-01

Volume expansion is a common therapeutic intervention in septic shock, although patient response to the intervention is difficult to predict. Central venous pressure (CVP) and shock index have been used independently to guide volume expansion, although their use is questionable. We hypothesize that a combination of these measurements will be useful. In a prospective, observational study, patients with early septic shock received 10-mL/kg volume expansion at their treating physician's discretion after brief initial resuscitation in the emergency department. Central venous pressure and shock index were measured before volume expansion interventions. Cardiac index was measured immediately before and after the volume expansion using transthoracic echocardiography. Hemodynamic response was defined as an increase in a cardiac index of 15% or greater. Thirty-four volume expansions were observed in 25 patients. A CVP of 8 mm Hg or greater and a shock index of 1 beat min(-1) mm Hg(-1) or less individually had a good negative predictive value (83% and 88%, respectively). Of 34 volume expansions, the combination of both a high CVP and a low shock index was extremely unlikely to elicit hemodynamic response (negative predictive value, 93%; P = .02). Volume expansion in patients with early septic shock with a CVP of 8 mm Hg or greater and a shock index of 1 beat min(-1) mm Hg(-1) or less is unlikely to lead to an increase in cardiac index. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

New social adaptability index predicts overall mortality.

Science.gov (United States)

Goldfarb-Rumyantzev, Alexander; Barenbaum, Anna; Rodrigue, James; Rout, Preeti; Isaacs, Ross; Mukamal, Kenneth

2011-08-01

Definitions of underprivileged status based on race, gender and geographic location are neither sensitive nor specific; instead we proposed and validated a composite index of social adaptability (SAI). Index of social adaptability was calculated based on employment, education, income, marital status, and substance abuse, each factor contributing from 0 to 3 points. Index of social adaptability was validated in NHANES-3 by association with all-cause and cause-specific mortality. Weighted analysis of 19,593 subjects demonstrated mean SAI of 8.29 (95% CI 8.17-8.40). Index of social adaptability was higher in Whites, followed by Mexican-Americans and then the African-American population (ANOVA, p adaptability with a strong association with mortality, which can be used to identify underprivileged populations at risk of death.

How long the singular value decomposed entropy predicts the stock market? - Evidence from the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Science.gov (United States)

Gu, Rongbao; Shao, Yanmin

2016-07-01

In this paper, a new concept of multi-scales singular value decomposition entropy based on DCCA cross correlation analysis is proposed and its predictive power for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index is studied. Using Granger causality analysis with different time scales, it is found that, the singular value decomposition entropy has predictive power for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index for period less than one month, but not for more than one month. This shows how long the singular value decomposition entropy predicts the stock market that extends Caraiani's result obtained in Caraiani (2014). On the other hand, the result also shows an essential characteristic of stock market as a chaotic dynamic system.

A GIS-derived integrated moisture index to predict forest composition and productivity of Ohio forests (U.S.A.)

Science.gov (United States)

Louis R. Iverson; Martin E. Dale; Charles T. Scott; Anantha Prasad; Anantha Prasad

1997-01-01

A geographic information system (GIS) approach was used in conjunction with forest-plot data to develop an integrated moisture index (IMI), which was then used to predict forest productivity (site index) and species composition for forests in Ohio. In this region, typical of eastern hardwoods across the Midwest and southern Appalachians, topographic aspect and position...

[Reliability of the PROFUND index to predict 4-year mortality in polypathological patients].

Science.gov (United States)

Díez-Manglano, Jesús; Del Corral Beamonte, Esther; Ramos Ibáñez, Rosa; Lambán Aranda, María Pilar; Toyas Miazza, Carla; Rodero Roldán, María Del Mar; Ortiz Domingo, Concepción; Munilla López, Eulalia; de Escalante Yangüela, Begoña

2016-09-16

To determine the usefullness of the PROFUND index to assess the risk of global death after 4 years in polypathological patients. Multicenter prospective cohort (Internal Medicine and Geriatrics) study. Polypathological patients admitted between March 1st and June 30th 2011 were included. For each patient, data concerning age, sex, living at home or in a nursing residence, polypathology categories, Charlson, Barthel and Lawton-Brody indexes, Pfeiffer questionnaire, socio-familial Gijon scale, delirium, number of drugs, hemoglobin and creatinine values were gathered, and the PROFUND index was calculated. The follow-up lasted 4 years. We included 441 patients, 324 from Internal Medicine and 117 from Geriatrics, with a mean age of 80.9 (8.7) years. Of them, 245 (55.6%) were women. Heart (62.7%), neurological (41.4%) and respiratory (37.3%) diseases were the most frequent. Geriatrics inpatients were older and more dependants and presented greater cognitive deterioration. After 4 years, 335 (76%) patients died. Mortality was associated with age, dyspnoea, Barthel index<60, delirium, advanced neoplasia and≥4 admissions in the last year. The area under the curve of the PROFUND index was 0.748, 95% CI 0.689-0.806, P<.001 in Internal Medicine and 0.517, 95% CI 0.369-0.666, P=.818 in Geriatrics patients, respectively. The PROFUND index is a reliable tool for predicting long-term global mortality in polypathological patients from Internal Medicine but not from Geriatrics departments. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Marker Assisted Selection can Reduce True as well as Pedigree Estimated Inbreeding

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, L D; Sørensen, A C; Berg, P

2009-01-01

This study investigated whether selection using genotype information reduced the rate and level of true inbreeding, that is, identity by descent, at a selectively neutral locus as well as a locus under selection compared with traditional BLUP selection. In addition, the founder representation...... each of 40 herds. Selection was performed using BLUP, marker-assisted, or gene-assisted selection for a trait with low heritability (h2 = 0.04) only expressed in females, mimicking a health trait. The simulated genome consisted of 2 chromosomes. One biallelic quantitative trait loci (QTL......) with an initial frequency of the favorable allele of 0.1, and initially explaining 25% of the genetic variance as well as 4 markers were simulated in linkage disequilibrium, all positioned at chromosome 1. Chromosome 2 was selectively neutral, and consisted of a single neutral locus. The results showed...

Predictive Value of Triglyceride Glucose Index for the Risk of Incident Diabetes: A 4-Year Retrospective Longitudinal Study

OpenAIRE

Lee, Da Young; Lee, Eun Seo; Kim, Ji Hyun; Park, Se Eun; Park, Cheol-Young; Oh, Ki-Won; Park, Sung-Woo; Rhee, Eun-Jung; Lee, Won-Young

2016-01-01

The Triglyceride Glucose Index (TyG index) is considered a surrogate marker of insulin resistance. The aim of this study is to investigate whether the TyG index has a predictive role in identifying individuals with a high risk of incident diabetes and to compare it with other indicators of metabolic health. A total 2900 non-diabetic adults who attended five consecutive annual health check-ups at Kangbuk Samsung Hospital was divided into four subgroups using three methods: (1) baseline TyG ind...

Developing Models to Predict the Number of Fire Hotspots from an Accumulated Fuel Dryness Index by Vegetation Type and Region in Mexico

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. J. Vega-Nieva

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Understanding the linkage between accumulated fuel dryness and temporal fire occurrence risk is key for improving decision-making in forest fire management, especially under growing conditions of vegetation stress associated with climate change. This study addresses the development of models to predict the number of 10-day observed Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS active fire hotspots—expressed as a Fire Hotspot Density index (FHD—from an Accumulated Fuel Dryness Index (AcFDI, for 17 main vegetation types and regions in Mexico, for the period 2011–2015. The AcFDI was calculated by applying vegetation-specific thresholds for fire occurrence to a satellite-based fuel dryness index (FDI, which was developed after the structure of the Fire Potential Index (FPI. Linear and non-linear models were tested for the prediction of FHD from FDI and AcFDI. Non-linear quantile regression models gave the best results for predicting FHD using AcFDI, together with auto-regression from previously observed hotspot density values. The predictions of 10-day observed FHD values were reasonably good with R2 values of 0.5 to 0.7 suggesting the potential to be used as an operational tool for predicting the expected number of fire hotspots by vegetation type and region in Mexico. The presented modeling strategy could be replicated for any fire danger index in any region, based on information from MODIS or other remote sensors.

Genetic Gain and Inbreeding from Genomic Selection in a Simulated Commercial Breeding Program for Perennial Ryegrass

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zibei Lin

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Genomic selection (GS provides an attractive option for accelerating genetic gain in perennial ryegrass ( improvement given the long cycle times of most current breeding programs. The present study used simulation to investigate the level of genetic gain and inbreeding obtained from GS breeding strategies compared with traditional breeding strategies for key traits (persistency, yield, and flowering time. Base population genomes were simulated through random mating for 60,000 generations at an effective population size of 10,000. The degree of linkage disequilibrium (LD in the resulting population was compared with that obtained from empirical studies. Initial parental varieties were simulated to match diversity of current commercial cultivars. Genomic selection was designed to fit into a company breeding program at two selection points in the breeding cycle (spaced plants and miniplot. Genomic estimated breeding values (GEBVs for productivity traits were trained with phenotypes and genotypes from plots. Accuracy of GEBVs was 0.24 for persistency and 0.36 for yield for single plants, while for plots it was lower (0.17 and 0.19, respectively. Higher accuracy of GEBVs was obtained for flowering time (up to 0.7, partially as a result of the larger reference population size that was available from the clonal row stage. The availability of GEBVs permit a 4-yr reduction in cycle time, which led to at least a doubling and trebling genetic gain for persistency and yield, respectively, than the traditional program. However, a higher rate of inbreeding per cycle among varieties was also observed for the GS strategy.

Genetic Gain and Inbreeding from Genomic Selection in a Simulated Commercial Breeding Program for Perennial Ryegrass.

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Zibei; Cogan, Noel O I; Pembleton, Luke W; Spangenberg, German C; Forster, John W; Hayes, Ben J; Daetwyler, Hans D

2016-03-01

Genomic selection (GS) provides an attractive option for accelerating genetic gain in perennial ryegrass () improvement given the long cycle times of most current breeding programs. The present study used simulation to investigate the level of genetic gain and inbreeding obtained from GS breeding strategies compared with traditional breeding strategies for key traits (persistency, yield, and flowering time). Base population genomes were simulated through random mating for 60,000 generations at an effective population size of 10,000. The degree of linkage disequilibrium (LD) in the resulting population was compared with that obtained from empirical studies. Initial parental varieties were simulated to match diversity of current commercial cultivars. Genomic selection was designed to fit into a company breeding program at two selection points in the breeding cycle (spaced plants and miniplot). Genomic estimated breeding values (GEBVs) for productivity traits were trained with phenotypes and genotypes from plots. Accuracy of GEBVs was 0.24 for persistency and 0.36 for yield for single plants, while for plots it was lower (0.17 and 0.19, respectively). Higher accuracy of GEBVs was obtained for flowering time (up to 0.7), partially as a result of the larger reference population size that was available from the clonal row stage. The availability of GEBVs permit a 4-yr reduction in cycle time, which led to at least a doubling and trebling genetic gain for persistency and yield, respectively, than the traditional program. However, a higher rate of inbreeding per cycle among varieties was also observed for the GS strategy. Copyright © 2016 Crop Science Society of America.

Predictive Value of Triglyceride Glucose Index for the Risk of Incident Diabetes: A 4-Year Retrospective Longitudinal Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Da Young; Lee, Eun Seo; Kim, Ji Hyun; Park, Se Eun; Park, Cheol-Young; Oh, Ki-Won; Park, Sung-Woo; Rhee, Eun-Jung; Lee, Won-Young

The Triglyceride Glucose Index (TyG index) is considered a surrogate marker of insulin resistance. The aim of this study is to investigate whether the TyG index has a predictive role in identifying individuals with a high risk of incident diabetes and to compare it with other indicators of metabolic health. A total 2900 non-diabetic adults who attended five consecutive annual health check-ups at Kangbuk Samsung Hospital was divided into four subgroups using three methods: (1) baseline TyG index; (2) obesity status (body mass index ≥25 kg/m2) and cutoff value of TyG index; (3) obesity status and metabolic health, defined as having fewer than two of the five components of high blood pressure, fasting blood glucose, triglyceride, low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and highest decile of homeostasis model assessment-insulin resistance. The development of diabetes was assessed annually using self-questionnaire, fasting glucose, and glycated hemoglobin. We compared the risk of incident diabetes using multivariate Cox analysis. During 11623 person-years there were 101 case of incident diabetes. Subjects with high TyG index had a high risk of diabetes. For TyG index quartiles, hazard ratios (HRs) of quartiles 3 and 4 were 4.06 (p = 0.033) and 5.65 (p = 0.006) respectively. When the subjects were divided by obesity status and cutoff value of TyG index of 8.8, the subgroups with TyG index ≥ 8.8 regardless of obesity had a significantly high risk for diabetes (HR 2.40 [p = 0.024] and 2.25 [p = 0.048]). For obesity status and metabolic health, the two metabolically unhealthy subgroups regardless of obesity had a significantly high risk for diabetes (HRs 2.54 [p = 0.024] and 2.73 [p = 0.021]). In conclusion, the TyG index measured at a single time point may be an indicator of the risk for incident diabetes. The predictive value of the TyG index was comparable to that of metabolic health.

The Predictive Value of the Foot Posture Index on Dynamic Function

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mølgaard, Carsten Møller; Olesen Gammelgaard, Christian; Nielsen, R. G.

2008-01-01

Keenan et. al. identified the six-item version of the Foot Posture Index (FPI) as a valid, simple and clinically useful tool. The model combines measures of the standing foot posture in multiple planes and anatomical segments. It provides an alternative to existing static clinical measures when...... dynamic measures are not feasible. Redmond et. al. found the model able to predict 41% of the variation in the complex rotation of the ankle joint, representing inversion/eversion, during midstance of walking. To our knowledge no studies have been published on the relationship between FPI and the movement...

Functional region prediction with a set of appropriate homologous sequences-an index for sequence selection by integrating structure and sequence information with spatial statistics

Science.gov (United States)

2012-01-01

Background The detection of conserved residue clusters on a protein structure is one of the effective strategies for the prediction of functional protein regions. Various methods, such as Evolutionary Trace, have been developed based on this strategy. In such approaches, the conserved residues are identified through comparisons of homologous amino acid sequences. Therefore, the selection of homologous sequences is a critical step. It is empirically known that a certain degree of sequence divergence in the set of homologous sequences is required for the identification of conserved residues. However, the development of a method to select homologous sequences appropriate for the identification of conserved residues has not been sufficiently addressed. An objective and general method to select appropriate homologous sequences is desired for the efficient prediction of functional regions. Results We have developed a novel index to select the sequences appropriate for the identification of conserved residues, and implemented the index within our method to predict the functional regions of a protein. The implementation of the index improved the performance of the functional region prediction. The index represents the degree of conserved residue clustering on the tertiary structure of the protein. For this purpose, the structure and sequence information were integrated within the index by the application of spatial statistics. Spatial statistics is a field of statistics in which not only the attributes but also the geometrical coordinates of the data are considered simultaneously. Higher degrees of clustering generate larger index scores. We adopted the set of homologous sequences with the highest index score, under the assumption that the best prediction accuracy is obtained when the degree of clustering is the maximum. The set of sequences selected by the index led to higher functional region prediction performance than the sets of sequences selected by other sequence

Epileptic Seizure Prediction Using a New Similarity Index for Chaotic Signals

Science.gov (United States)

Niknazar, Hamid; Nasrabadi, Ali Motie

Epileptic seizures are generated by abnormal activity of neurons. The prediction of epileptic seizures is an important issue in the field of neurology, since it may improve the quality of life of patients suffering from drug resistant epilepsy. In this study a new similarity index based on symbolic dynamic techniques which can be used for extracting behavior of chaotic time series is presented. Using Freiburg EEG dataset, it is found that the method is able to detect the behavioral changes of the neural activity prior to epileptic seizures, so it can be used for prediction of epileptic seizure. A sensitivity of 63.75% with 0.33 false positive rate (FPR) in all 21 patients and sensitivity of 96.66% with 0.33 FPR in eight patients were achieved using the proposed method. Moreover, the method was evaluated by applying on Logistic and Tent map with different parameters to demonstrate its robustness and ability in determining similarity between two time series with the same chaotic characterization.

PREDICTION OF OUTCOME USING THE MANNHEIM PERITONITIS INDEX IN CASES OF PERITONITIS

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Sanjeev

2015-08-01

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Peritonitis still presents an extremely common & dreaded problem in emergency surgery. Despite aggressive surgical techniques, the prognosis of peritonitis and intra - abdominal sepsis is very poor, especially when multiple organ failure develops. Therefore early objective & reliable classification of the severity of peritonitis and intra - abdominal sepsis is needed not only to predict prognosis & to select patients for these aggressive surgical techniques but also to evaluate & compare the results of different treatment regimens. So, in this prospective st udy of 60 cases of peritonitis, the reliability of the Mannheim peritonitis index is assessed & its predictive power evaluated. MATERIALS & METHOD S : This prospective study was carried out in the department of surgery, GMCH, Udaipur from June 2014 to June 2 015 after taking the permission from institutional ethics committee. Patients from both sexes of various age groups having peritonitis of varied aetiology & who had undergone laparotomy were taken. A detailed history, thorough clinical examination & necess ary investigations were performed in e ach case according to planned p r o forma. After resuscitation laparotomy was done & operative findings were noted carefully and a proper note on the progress of each patient was maintained and any complications encounter ed were noted. So, early classification of patients presenting with peritonitis by means of objective scoring system was done to select patients for aggressive surgery & overall morbidity & mortality were analyzed. RESULTS: Total 60 patients of peritonitis were examined and common causes were peptic (61.6%, typhoid (21.6% and appendicular (8.3 %. Most common age group was found to be 21 to 50 years and male to female ratio was 4:1. Peritonitis was more common in patients involved in hard work and chronic Be di smokers (61.6%. About 46% of patients who presented for treatment within 48 hours of onset of illness

Evaluation of renal resistive index in cirrhotic patients for predicting the hepatirenal syndrome

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Baek, Seung Yon; Kim, Hyae young; Yi, Sun Young [Ewha WoMans Univ. Mokdong Hospital, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

1996-04-01

To evaluate the usefulness of renal resistive index(RI) in patients with liver cirrhosis as an indicator for predicting hepatorenal syndrome. Renal RIs of thirty cirrhotic patients were analyzed using the gray-scale and Doppler ultrasonograms. As a control group, eight normal subjects were included. Renal RIs were measured at three sites of interlobar or arcuate arteries of both kidneys. The patients were divided into three groups (A, B, or C) according to the Child-Turcotte-Pugh classification and their serum BUN and creatinine levels were compared. We determined whether RIs of normal controls differed from those of cirrhotic patients or whether RIs of cirrhotic patients correlated with the Child-Turcotte-Pugh classification or BUN and creatinine levels. Mean RIs(0.63 {+-}0.33) of normal subjects were statistically different from those(0.67 {+-} 0.05) of cirrhotic patients(P=0.009). RIs of group A(n=6), B(n=9) and C(n=15) were 0.65 {+-} 0.03, 0.65 {+-} 0.04 and 0.70 {+-} 0.04, respectively. The ANOVA test revealed statistically significant differences between the three groups(F ratio=4.472, P=0.021). RIs did not correlate with BUN or creatinine levels. RI could be used as an index for predicting hepatorenal syndrome before the renal function becomes impaired.

Strain dyssynchrony index determined by three-dimensional speckle area tracking can predict response to cardiac resynchronization therapy

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Onishi Tetsuari

2011-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background We have previously reported strain dyssynchrony index assessed by two-dimensional speckle tracking strain, and a marker of both dyssynchrony and residual myocardial contractility, can predict response to cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT. A newly developed three-dimensional (3-D speckle tracking system can quantify endocardial area change ratio (area strain, which coupled with the factors of both longitudinal and circumferential strain, from all 16 standard left ventricular (LV segments using complete 3-D pyramidal datasets. Our objective was to test the hypothesis that strain dyssynchrony index using area tracking (ASDI can quantify dyssynchrony and predict response to CRT. Methods We studied 14 heart failure patients with ejection fraction of 27 ± 7% (all≤35% and QRS duration of 172 ± 30 ms (all≥120 ms who underwent CRT. Echocardiography was performed before and 6-month after CRT. ASDI was calculated as the average difference between peak and end-systolic area strain of LV endocardium obtained from 3-D speckle tracking imaging using 16 segments. Conventional dyssynchrony measures were assessed by interventricular mechanical delay, Yu Index, and two-dimensional radial dyssynchrony by speckle-tracking strain. Response was defined as a ≥15% decrease in LV end-systolic volume 6-month after CRT. Results ASDI ≥ 3.8% was the best predictor of response to CRT with a sensitivity of 78%, specificity of 100% and area under the curve (AUC of 0.93 (p Conclusions ASDI can predict responders and LV reverse remodeling following CRT. This novel index using the 3-D speckle tracking system, which shows circumferential and longitudinal LV dyssynchrony and residual endocardial contractility, may thus have clinical significance for CRT patients.

Experimental comparison between speech transmission index, rapid speech transmission index, and speech intelligibility index.

Science.gov (United States)

Larm, Petra; Hongisto, Valtteri

2006-02-01

During the acoustical design of, e.g., auditoria or open-plan offices, it is important to know how speech can be perceived in various parts of the room. Different objective methods have been developed to measure and predict speech intelligibility, and these have been extensively used in various spaces. In this study, two such methods were compared, the speech transmission index (STI) and the speech intelligibility index (SII). Also the simplification of the STI, the room acoustics speech transmission index (RASTI), was considered. These quantities are all based on determining an apparent speech-to-noise ratio on selected frequency bands and summing them using a specific weighting. For comparison, some data were needed on the possible differences of these methods resulting from the calculation scheme and also measuring equipment. Their prediction accuracy was also of interest. Measurements were made in a laboratory having adjustable noise level and absorption, and in a real auditorium. It was found that the measurement equipment, especially the selection of the loudspeaker, can greatly affect the accuracy of the results. The prediction accuracy of the RASTI was found acceptable, if the input values for the prediction are accurately known, even though the studied space was not ideally diffuse.

Can transient elastography, Fib-4, Forns Index, and Lok Score predict esophageal varices in HCV-related cirrhotic patients?

Science.gov (United States)

Hassan, Eman M; Omran, Dalia A; El Beshlawey, Mohamad L; Abdo, Mahmoud; El Askary, Ahmad

2014-02-01

Gastroesophageal varices are present in approximately 50% of patients with liver cirrhosis. The aim of this study was to evaluate liver stiffness measurement (LSM), Fib-4, Forns Index and Lok Score as noninvasive predictors of esophageal varices (EV). This prospective study included 65 patients with HCV-related liver cirrhosis. All patients underwent routine laboratory tests, transient elastograhy (TE) and esophagogastroduodenoscopy. FIB-4, Forns Index and Lok Score were calculated. The diagnostic performances of these methods were assessed using sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, accuracy and receiver operating characteristic curves. All predictors (LSM, FIB-4, Forns Index and Lok Score) demonstrated statistically significant correlation with the presence and the grade of EV. TE could diagnose EV at a cutoff value of 18.2kPa. Fib-4, Forns Index, and Lok Score could diagnose EV at cutoff values of 2.8, 6.61 and 0.63, respectively. For prediction of large varices (grade 2, 3), LSM showed the highest accuracy (80%) with a cutoff of 22.4kPa and AUROC of 0.801. Its sensitivity was 84%, specificity 72%, PPV 84% and NPV 72%. The diagnostic accuracies of FIB-4, Forns Index and Lok Score were 70%, 70% and76%, respectively, at cutoffs of 3.3, 6.9 and 0.7, respectively. For diagnosis of large esophageal varices, adding TE to each of the other diagnostic indices (serum fibrosis scores) increased their sensitivities with little decrease in their specificities. Moreover, this combination decreased the LR- in all tests. Noninvasive predictors can restrict endoscopic screening. This is very important as non invasiveness is now a major goal in hepatology. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier España, S.L. and AEEH y AEG. All rights reserved.

Evidence of high inbreeding in a population of the endangered giant anteater, Myrmecophaga tridactyla (Myrmecophagidae), from Emas National Park, Brazil

OpenAIRE

Collevatti, Rosane G.; Leite, Kelly C.E.; Miranda, Guilherme H.B. de; Rodrigues, Flavio H.G.

2007-01-01

We report the genetic structure, relatedness and mating structure of a population of the endangered giant anteater Myrmecophaga tridactyla Linnaeus, 1758 in the Emas National Park, Brazil, based on variability at five microsatellite loci. Additionally, we addressed the hypothesis that the M. tridactyla population studied has low levels of polymorphism and high levels of inbreeding and relatedness and that animals with overlapping home range are highly related. All five microsatellite loci dis...

Impact of selective logging on inbreeding and gene dispersal in an Amazonian tree population of Carapa guianensis Aubl.

Science.gov (United States)

Cloutier, D; Kanashiro, M; Ciampi, A Y; Schoen, D J

2007-02-01

Selective logging may impact patterns of genetic diversity within populations of harvested forest tree species by increasing distances separating conspecific trees, and modifying physical and biotic features of the forest habitat. We measured levels of gene diversity, inbreeding, pollen dispersal and spatial genetic structure (SGS) of an Amazonian insect-pollinated Carapa guianensis population before and after commercial selective logging. Similar levels of gene diversity and allelic richness were found before and after logging in both the adult and the seed generations. Pre- and post-harvest outcrossing rates were high, and not significantly different from one another. We found no significant levels of biparental inbreeding either before or after logging. Low levels of pollen pool differentiation were found, and the pre- vs. post-harvest difference was not significant. Pollen dispersal distance estimates averaged between 75 m and 265 m before logging, and between 76 m and 268 m after logging, depending on the value of tree density and the dispersal model used. There were weak and similar levels of differentiation of allele frequencies in the adults and in the pollen pool, before and after logging occurred, as well as weak and similar pre- and post-harvest levels of SGS among adult trees. The large neighbourhood sizes estimated suggest high historical levels of gene flow. Overall our results indicate that there is no clear short-term genetic impact of selective logging on this population of C. guianensis.

Higher levels of multiple paternities increase seedling survival in the long-lived tree Eucalyptus gracilis.

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Martin F Breed

Full Text Available Studying associations between mating system parameters and fitness in natural populations of trees advances our understanding of how local environments affect seed quality, and thereby helps to predict when inbreeding or multiple paternities should impact on fitness. Indeed, for species that demonstrate inbreeding avoidance, multiple paternities (i.e. the number of male parents per half-sib family should still vary and regulate fitness more than inbreeding--named here as the 'constrained inbreeding hypothesis'. We test this hypothesis in Eucalyptus gracilis, a predominantly insect-pollinated tree. Fifty-eight open-pollinated progeny arrays were collected from trees in three populations. Progeny were planted in a reciprocal transplant trial. Fitness was measured by family establishment rates. We genotyped all trees and their progeny at eight microsatellite loci. Planting site had a strong effect on fitness, but seed provenance and seed provenance × planting site did not. Populations had comparable mating system parameters and were generally outcrossed, experienced low biparental inbreeding and high levels of multiple paternity. As predicted, seed families that had more multiple paternities also had higher fitness, and no fitness-inbreeding correlations were detected. Demonstrating that fitness was most affected by multiple paternities rather than inbreeding, we provide evidence supporting the constrained inbreeding hypothesis; i.e. that multiple paternity may impact on fitness over and above that of inbreeding, particularly for preferentially outcrossing trees at life stages beyond seed development.

Screening for Sleep Apnoea in Mild Cognitive Impairment: The Utility of the Multivariable Apnoea Prediction Index

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Georgina Wilson

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Purpose. Mild cognitive impairment (MCI is considered an “at risk” state for dementia and efforts are needed to target modifiable risk factors, of which Obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA is one. This study aims to evaluate the predictive utility of the multivariate apnoea prediction index (MAPI, a patient self-report survey, to assess OSA in MCI. Methods. Thirty-seven participants with MCI and 37 age-matched controls completed the MAPI and underwent polysomnography (PSG. Correlations were used to compare the MAPI and PSG measures including oxygen desaturation index and apnoea-hypopnoea index (AHI. Receiver-operating characteristics (ROC curve analyses were performed using various cut-off scores for apnoea severity. Results. In controls, there was a significant moderate correlation between higher MAPI scores and more severe apnoea (AHI: r=0.47, P=0.017. However, this relationship was not significant in the MCI sample. ROC curve analysis indicated much lower area under the curve (AUC in the MCI sample compared to the controls across all AHI severity cut-off scores. Conclusions. In older people, the MAPI moderately correlates with AHI severity but only in those who are cognitively intact. Development of further screening tools is required in order to accurately screen for OSA in MCI.

Ukuran Populasi Efektif, Ukuran Populasi Aktual dan Laju Inbreeding Per Generasi Itik Lokal di Kecamatan Tilatang Kamang Kabupaten Agam

OpenAIRE

Rusfidra, Rusfidra; Zein, R; Hasibuan, A. M. A

2012-01-01

This study aims to obtain the effective population size, actual population size and rate of inbreeding of Kamang local duck. In this study used a sample local duck raised from 30 farmers. This research conducted was survey method with purposive random sampling. The variables were calculated in the study, namely the number of adult male ducks (Nm), number of adult female ducks (Nf), number of young male and young female ducks, number of male and female ducklings, actual population size (Na), e...

Evaluation of renal resistive index in cirrhotic patients for predicting the hepatirenal syndrome

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baek, Seung Yon; Kim, Hyae young; Yi, Sun Young

1996-01-01

To evaluate the usefulness of renal resistive index(RI) in patients with liver cirrhosis as an indicator for predicting hepatorenal syndrome. Renal RIs of thirty cirrhotic patients were analyzed using the gray-scale and Doppler ultrasonograms. As a control group, eight normal subjects were included. Renal RIs were measured at three sites of interlobar or arcuate arteries of both kidneys. The patients were divided into three groups (A, B, or C) according to the Child-Turcotte-Pugh classification and their serum BUN and creatinine levels were compared. We determined whether RIs of normal controls differed from those of cirrhotic patients or whether RIs of cirrhotic patients correlated with the Child-Turcotte-Pugh classification or BUN and creatinine levels. Mean RIs(0.63 ±0.33) of normal subjects were statistically different from those(0.67 ± 0.05) of cirrhotic patients(P=0.009). RIs of group A(n=6), B(n=9) and C(n=15) were 0.65 ± 0.03, 0.65 ± 0.04 and 0.70 ± 0.04, respectively. The ANOVA test revealed statistically significant differences between the three groups(F ratio=4.472, P=0.021). RIs did not correlate with BUN or creatinine levels. RI could be used as an index for predicting hepatorenal syndrome before the renal function becomes impaired

The predictive effect of inflammatory markers and lipid accumulation product index on clinical symptoms associated with polycystic ovary syndrome in nonobese adolescents and younger aged women.

Science.gov (United States)

Tola, Esra Nur; Yalcin, Serenat Eris; Dugan, Nadiye

2017-07-01

The aim of our study is to analyse the inflammatory markers and lipid accumulation product (LAP) index in nonobese adolescents and younger aged women with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) compared with age and body mass index (BMI)-matched healthy controls and to determine whether the investigated parameters are potential markers for the etiopathogenesis of PCOS. We also aim to determine whether these inflammatory markers are predictive for developing some clinical implications, such as cardiovascular disease (CVD) and insulin resistance (IR), associated with PCOS. A total of 34 adolescents and younger aged females with PCOS, and 33 age and BMI-matched healthy controls were recruited for our study. All participants were nonobese (BMIpredictive effect of investigated inflammatory markers and LAP index on CVD risk among PCOS patients after adjustment for abdominal obesity. We also found a positive predictive effect of WBC and a negative predictive effect of lymphocytes on IR in PCOS patients after adjustment for abdominal obesity. We did not find any predictor effect of NEO on IR, but it was a positive predictive marker for an elevated HOMA-IR index. Elevated NEO, CRP levels and LAP index could have potential roles in the etiopathogenesis of PCOS in nonobese adolescents and younger aged females,NEO could be a predictive marker for elevated HOMA-IR index, and WBC and lymphocytes could be predictive for the development of IR among nonobese adolescents and younger aged females with PCOS. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Nuclear Division Index may Predict Neoplastic Colorectal Lesions.

Science.gov (United States)

Ionescu, Mirela E; Ciocirlan, Mihai; Becheanu, Gabriel; Nicolaie, Tudor; Ditescu, Cristina; Teiusanu, Adriana G; Gologan, Serban I; Arbanas, Tudor; Diculescu, Mircea M

2011-07-01

Colorectal cancer (CRC) develops by accumulation of multiple genetic damages leading to genetic instability that can be evaluated by cytogenetic methods. In the current study we used Cytokinesis-Blocked Micronucleus Assay (CBMN) technique to assess the behavior of Nuclear Division Index(NDI) in peripheral lymphocytes of patients with CRC and polyps versus patients with normal colonoscopy. Blood samples were collected from patients after informed consent. By CBMN technique we assessed the proportion of mono-nucleated, bi-nucleated, tri-nucleated and tetra-nucleated cells/500 cells, to calculate NDI. Data were statistically analyzed using the SPSS 11.0 package. 45 patients were available for analysis, 23 men and 22 women, with a mean age of 58.7±13.5. 17 had normal colonoscopy, 17 colonic polyps and 11 CRC. The mean NDI values were significantly smaller for patients with CRC or polyps than in patients with normal colonoscopy (1.57 vs 1.73, p=0.013). The difference persisted for patients with neoplastic lesions (adenomas and carcinomas) when compared with patients with normal colonoscopy or non neoplastic (hyperplastic) polyps (1.56 vs.1.71, p=0.018). The NDI cut-off value to predict the presence of adenomas or carcinomas was equal to 1.55 with a 54.2% sensitivity and 81% specificity of lower values (p=0.019). The NDI cut off value to predict the presence of advanced adenomas or cancer was 1.525 for a sensitivity of 56.3% and a specificity of 82.8% (p=0.048). NDI may be useful in screening strategies for colorectal cancer as simple, noninvasive, inexpensive cytogenetic biomarker.

Predictive value of European Scleroderma Group Activity Index in an early scleroderma cohort.

Science.gov (United States)

Nevskaya, Tatiana; Baron, Murray; Pope, Janet E

2017-07-01

To estimate the effect of disease activity, as measured by the European Scleroderma Research Group Activity Index (EScSG-AI), on the risk of subsequent organ damage in a large systemic sclerosis (SSc) cohort. Of 421 SSc patients from the Canadian Scleroderma Research Group database with disease duration of ⩽ 3 years, 197 who had no evidence of end-stage organ damage initially and available 3 year follow-up were included. Disease activity was assessed by the EScSG-AI with two variability measures: the adjusted mean EScSG-AI (the area under the curve of the EScSG-AI over the observation period) and persistently active disease/flare. Outcomes were based on the Medsger severity scale and included accrual of a new severity score (Δ ⩾ 1) overall and within organ systems or reaching a significant level of deterioration in health status. After adjustment for covariates, the adjusted mean EScSG-AI was the most consistent predictor of risk across the study outcomes over 3 years in dcSSc: disease progression defined as Δ ⩾ 1 in any major internal organ, significant decline in forced vital capacity and diffusing capacity of carbon monoxide, severity of visceral disease and HAQ Disability Index worsening. In multivariate analysis, progression of lung disease was predicted solely by adjusted mean EScSG-AI, while the severity of lung disease was predicted the adjusted mean EScSG-AI, older age, modified Rodnan skin score (mRSS) and initial severity. The EScSG-AI was associated with patient- and physician-assessed measures of health status and overpowered the mRSS in predicting disease outcomes. Disease activity burden quantified with the adjusted mean EScSG-AI predicted the risk of deterioration in health status and severe organ involvement in dcSSc. The EScSG-AI is more responsive when done repeatedly and averaged. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email

Efficacy of the Omega-3 Index in predicting non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in overweight and obese adults: a pilot study.

Science.gov (United States)

Parker, Helen M; O'Connor, Helen T; Keating, Shelley E; Cohn, Jeffrey S; Garg, Manohar L; Caterson, Ian D; George, Jacob; Johnson, Nathan A

2015-09-14

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is an independent predictor of CVD in otherwise healthy individuals. Low n-3 PUFA intake has been associated with the presence of NAFLD; however, the relationship between a biomarker of n-3 status - the Omega-3 Index - and liver fat is yet to be elucidated. A total of eighty overweight adults (fifty-six men) completed the anthropometric and biochemical measurements, including the Omega-3 Index, and underwent proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy assessment of liver fat. Bivariate correlations and multiple regression analyses were performed with reference to prediction of liver fat percentage. The mean Omega-3 Index was high in both NAFLD (intrahepatic lipid concentration≥5·5 %) and non-NAFLD groups. The Omega-3 Index, BMI, waist circumference, glucose, insulin, TAG, high-sensitive C-reactive protein (hsCRP) and alanine aminotransferase (ALT) were positively correlated, and HDL and erythrocyte n-6:n-3 ratio negatively correlated with liver fat concentration. Regression analysis found that simple anthropometric and demographic variables (waist, age) accounted for 31 % of the variance in liver fat and the addition of traditional cardiometabolic blood markers (TAG, HDL, hsCRP and ALT) increased the predictive power to 43 %. The addition of the novel erythrocyte fatty acid variable (Omega-3 Index) to the model only accounted for a further 3 % of the variance (P=0·049). In conclusion, the Omega-3 Index was associated with liver fat concentration but did not improve the overall capacity of demographic, anthropometric and blood markers to predict NAFLD.

Building and verifying a severity prediction model of acute pancreatitis (AP) based on BISAP, MEWS and routine test indexes.

Science.gov (United States)

Ye, Jiang-Feng; Zhao, Yu-Xin; Ju, Jian; Wang, Wei

2017-10-01

To discuss the value of the Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP), Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS), serum Ca2+, similarly hereinafter, and red cell distribution width (RDW) for predicting the severity grade of acute pancreatitis and to develop and verify a more accurate scoring system to predict the severity of AP. In 302 patients with AP, we calculated BISAP and MEWS scores and conducted regression analyses on the relationships of BISAP scoring, RDW, MEWS, and serum Ca2+ with the severity of AP using single-factor logistics. The variables with statistical significance in the single-factor logistic regression were used in a multi-factor logistic regression model; forward stepwise regression was used to screen variables and build a multi-factor prediction model. A receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC curve) was constructed, and the significance of multi- and single-factor prediction models in predicting the severity of AP using the area under the ROC curve (AUC) was evaluated. The internal validity of the model was verified through bootstrapping. Among 302 patients with AP, 209 had mild acute pancreatitis (MAP) and 93 had severe acute pancreatitis (SAP). According to single-factor logistic regression analysis, we found that BISAP, MEWS and serum Ca2+ are prediction indexes of the severity of AP (P-value0.05). The multi-factor logistic regression analysis showed that BISAP and serum Ca2+ are independent prediction indexes of AP severity (P-value0.05); BISAP is negatively related to serum Ca2+ (r=-0.330, P-valuemodel is as follows: ln()=7.306+1.151*BISAP-4.516*serum Ca2+. The predictive ability of each model for SAP follows the order of the combined BISAP and serum Ca2+ prediction model>Ca2+>BISAP. There is no statistical significance for the predictive ability of BISAP and serum Ca2+ (P-value>0.05); however, there is remarkable statistical significance for the predictive ability using the newly built prediction model as well as BISAP

Prediction Center (CPC) Polar Eurasia Teleconnection Pattern Index

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Monthly tabulated index of the Polar-Eurasia teleconnection pattern. The data spans the period 1950 to present. The index is derived from a rotated principal...

Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Scandinavia Teleconnection Pattern Index

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Monthly tabulated index of the Scandinavia teleconnection pattern. The data spans the period 1950 to present. The index is derived from a rotated principal component...

Distribution of individual inbreeding coefficients, relatedness and influence of stocking on native anadromous brown trout ( Salmo trutta ) population structure

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ruzzante, D.E.; Hansen, Michael Møller; Meldrup, Dorte

2001-01-01

inbreeding coefficients do not differ among locations within rivers. Relatedness varies between sites within rivers indicating varied local dynamics at a very small geographical scale. Relatedness is sometimes lower than expected among an equal number of simulated individuals with randomized genotypes......, the proportion of locally assigned trout correlates with the populations' stocking histories, with rivers presently subjected to stocking (hatchery trout) showing low mean similar to0.73), and rivers where stocking was discontinued showing high (mean similar to0.84) proportions of local fish, probably reflecting...

Application of Intelligent Dynamic Bayesian Network with Wavelet Analysis for Probabilistic Prediction of Storm Track Intensity Index

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ming Li

2018-06-01

Full Text Available The effective prediction of storm track (ST is greatly beneficial for analyzing the development and anomalies of mid-latitude weather systems. For the non-stationarity, nonlinearity, and uncertainty of ST intensity index (STII, a new probabilistic prediction model was proposed based on dynamic Bayesian network (DBN and wavelet analysis (WA. We introduced probability theory and graph theory for the first time to quantitatively describe the nonlinear relationship and uncertain interaction of the ST system. Then a casual prediction network (i.e., DBN was constructed through wavelet decomposition, structural learning, parameter learning, and probabilistic inference, which was used for expression of relation among predictors and probabilistic prediction of STII. The intensity prediction of the North Pacific ST with data from 1961–2010 showed that the new model was able to give more comprehensive prediction information and higher prediction accuracy and had strong generalization ability and good stability.

Climate Prediction Center Southern Oscillation Index

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This is one of the CPC?s Monthly Atmospheric and Sea Surface Temperature (SST)Indices. It contains Southern Oscillation Index which is standardized sea level...

Development of the statistical ARIMA model: an application for predicting the upcoming of MJO index

Science.gov (United States)

Hermawan, Eddy; Nurani Ruchjana, Budi; Setiawan Abdullah, Atje; Gede Nyoman Mindra Jaya, I.; Berliana Sipayung, Sinta; Rustiana, Shailla

2017-10-01

This study is mainly concerned in development one of the most important equatorial atmospheric phenomena that we call as the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) which having strong impacts to the extreme rainfall anomalies over the Indonesian Maritime Continent (IMC). In this study, we focused to the big floods over Jakarta and surrounded area that suspecting caused by the impacts of MJO. We concentrated to develop the MJO index using the statistical model that we call as Box-Jenkis (ARIMA) ini 1996, 2002, and 2007, respectively. They are the RMM (Real Multivariate MJO) index as represented by RMM1 and RMM2, respectively. There are some steps to develop that model, starting from identification of data, estimated, determined model, before finally we applied that model for investigation some big floods that occurred at Jakarta in 1996, 2002, and 2007 respectively. We found the best of estimated model for the RMM1 and RMM2 prediction is ARIMA (2,1,2). Detailed steps how that model can be extracted and applying to predict the rainfall anomalies over Jakarta for 3 to 6 months later is discussed at this paper.

Analysis of Margin Index as a Method for Predicting Residual Disease After Breast-Conserving Surgery in a European Cancer Center.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Bolger, Jarlath C

2011-06-03

INTRODUCTION: Breast-conserving surgery (BCS), followed by appropriate adjuvant therapies is established as a standard treatment option for women with early-stage invasive breast cancers. A number of factors have been shown to correlate with local and regional disease recurrence. Although margin status is a strong predictor of disease recurrence, consensus is yet to be established on the optimum margin necessary. Margenthaler et al. recently proposed the use of a "margin index," combining tumor size and margin status as a predictor of residual disease after BCS. We applied this new predictive tool to a population of patients with primary breast cancer who presented to a symptomatic breast unit to determine its suitability in predicting those who require reexcision surgery. METHODS: Retrospective analysis of our breast cancer database from January 1, 2000 to June 30, 2010 was performed, including all patients who underwent BCS. Of 531 patients who underwent BCS, 27.1% (144\\/531) required further reexcision procedures, and 55 were eligible for inclusion in the study. Margin index was calculated as: margin index = closest margin (mm)\\/tumor size (mm) × 100, with index >5 considered optimum. RESULTS: Of the 55 patients included, 31% (17\\/55) had residual disease. Fisher\\'s exact test showed margin index not to be a significant predictor of residual disease on reexcision specimen (P = 0.57). Of note, a significantly higher proportion of our patients presented with T2\\/3 tumors (60% vs. 38%). CONCLUSIONS: Although an apparently elegant tool for predicting residual disease after BCS, we have shown that it is not applicable to a symptomatic breast unit in Ireland.

Analysis of margin index as a method for predicting residual disease after breast-conserving surgery in a European cancer center.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Bolger, Jarlath C

2012-02-01

INTRODUCTION: Breast-conserving surgery (BCS), followed by appropriate adjuvant therapies is established as a standard treatment option for women with early-stage invasive breast cancers. A number of factors have been shown to correlate with local and regional disease recurrence. Although margin status is a strong predictor of disease recurrence, consensus is yet to be established on the optimum margin necessary. Margenthaler et al. recently proposed the use of a "margin index," combining tumor size and margin status as a predictor of residual disease after BCS. We applied this new predictive tool to a population of patients with primary breast cancer who presented to a symptomatic breast unit to determine its suitability in predicting those who require reexcision surgery. METHODS: Retrospective analysis of our breast cancer database from January 1, 2000 to June 30, 2010 was performed, including all patients who underwent BCS. Of 531 patients who underwent BCS, 27.1% (144\\/531) required further reexcision procedures, and 55 were eligible for inclusion in the study. Margin index was calculated as: margin index = closest margin (mm)\\/tumor size (mm) x 100, with index >5 considered optimum. RESULTS: Of the 55 patients included, 31% (17\\/55) had residual disease. Fisher\\'s exact test showed margin index not to be a significant predictor of residual disease on reexcision specimen (P = 0.57). Of note, a significantly higher proportion of our patients presented with T2\\/3 tumors (60% vs. 38%). CONCLUSIONS: Although an apparently elegant tool for predicting residual disease after BCS, we have shown that it is not applicable to a symptomatic breast unit in Ireland.

Index to Predict In-hospital Mortality in Older Adults after Non-traumatic Emergency Department Intubations

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Kei Ouchi

2017-04-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Our goal was to develop and validate an index to predict in-hospital mortality in older adults after non-traumatic emergency department (ED intubations. Methods: We used Vizient administrative data from hospitalizations of 22,374 adults ≥75 years who underwent non-traumatic ED intubation from 2008–2015 at nearly 300 U.S. hospitals to develop and validate an index to predict in-hospital mortality. We randomly selected one half of participants for the development cohort and one half for the validation cohort. Considering 25 potential predictors, we developed a multivariable logistic regression model using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator method to determine factors associated with in-hospital mortality. We calculated risk scores using points derived from the final model’s beta coefficients. To evaluate calibration and discrimination of the final model, we used Hosmer-Lemeshow chi-square test and receiver-operating characteristic analysis and compared mortality by risk groups in the development and validation cohorts. Results: Death during the index hospitalization occurred in 40% of cases. The final model included six variables: history of myocardial infarction, history of cerebrovascular disease, history of metastatic cancer, age, admission diagnosis of sepsis, and admission diagnosis of stroke/ intracranial hemorrhage. Those with low-risk scores (10 had 58% risk of in-hospital mortality. The Hosmer-Lemeshow chi-square of the model was 6.47 (p=0.09, and the c-statistic was 0.62 in the validation cohort. Conclusion: The model may be useful in identifying older adults at high risk of death after ED intubation.

Prediction of Baseflow Index of Catchments using Machine Learning Algorithms

Science.gov (United States)

Yadav, B.; Hatfield, K.

2017-12-01

We present the results of eight machine learning techniques for predicting the baseflow index (BFI) of ungauged basins using a surrogate of catchment scale climate and physiographic data. The tested algorithms include ordinary least squares, ridge regression, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (lasso), elasticnet, support vector machine, gradient boosted regression trees, random forests, and extremely randomized trees. Our work seeks to identify the dominant controls of BFI that can be readily obtained from ancillary geospatial databases and remote sensing measurements, such that the developed techniques can be extended to ungauged catchments. More than 800 gauged catchments spanning the continental United States were selected to develop the general methodology. The BFI calculation was based on the baseflow separated from daily streamflow hydrograph using HYSEP filter. The surrogate catchment attributes were compiled from multiple sources including digital elevation model, soil, landuse, climate data, other publicly available ancillary and geospatial data. 80% catchments were used to train the ML algorithms, and the remaining 20% of the catchments were used as an independent test set to measure the generalization performance of fitted models. A k-fold cross-validation using exhaustive grid search was used to fit the hyperparameters of each model. Initial model development was based on 19 independent variables, but after variable selection and feature ranking, we generated revised sparse models of BFI prediction that are based on only six catchment attributes. These key predictive variables selected after the careful evaluation of bias-variance tradeoff include average catchment elevation, slope, fraction of sand, permeability, temperature, and precipitation. The most promising algorithms exceeding an accuracy score (r-square) of 0.7 on test data include support vector machine, gradient boosted regression trees, random forests, and extremely randomized

Disturbance metrics predict a wetland Vegetation Index of Biotic Integrity

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Stapanian, Martin A.; Mack, John; Adams, Jean V.; Gara, Brian; Micacchion, Mick

2013-01-01

Indices of biological integrity of wetlands based on vascular plants (VIBIs) have been developed in many areas in the USA. Knowledge of the best predictors of VIBIs would enable management agencies to make better decisions regarding mitigation site selection and performance monitoring criteria. We use a novel statistical technique to develop predictive models for an established index of wetland vegetation integrity (Ohio VIBI), using as independent variables 20 indices and metrics of habitat quality, wetland disturbance, and buffer area land use from 149 wetlands in Ohio, USA. For emergent and forest wetlands, predictive models explained 61% and 54% of the variability, respectively, in Ohio VIBI scores. In both cases the most important predictor of Ohio VIBI score was a metric that assessed habitat alteration and development in the wetland. Of secondary importance as a predictor was a metric that assessed microtopography, interspersion, and quality of vegetation communities in the wetland. Metrics and indices assessing disturbance and land use of the buffer area were generally poor predictors of Ohio VIBI scores. Our results suggest that vegetation integrity of emergent and forest wetlands could be most directly enhanced by minimizing substrate and habitat disturbance within the wetland. Such efforts could include reducing or eliminating any practices that disturb the soil profile, such as nutrient enrichment from adjacent farm land, mowing, grazing, or cutting or removing woody plants.

A new daily dividend-adjusted index for the Danish stock market, 1985-2002: Construction, statistical properties, and return predictability

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Belter, Klaus; Engsted, Tom; Tanggaard, Carsten

2005-01-01

is given. In the second part of the paper we analyze the time-series properties of daily, weekly, and monthly returns, and we present evidence on predictability of multi-period returns. We also compare stock returns with the returns on long-term bonds and short-term money market instruments (that is......We present a new dividend-adjusted blue chip index for the Danish stock market covering the period 1985-2002. In contrast to other indices on the Danish stock market, the index is calculated on a daily basis. In the first part of the paper a detailed description of the construction of the index...

Size asymmetry in intraspecific competition and the density-dependence of inbreeding depression in a natural plant population: a case study in cassava (Manihot esculenta Crantz, Euphorbiaceae).

Science.gov (United States)

Pujol, B; McKey, D

2006-01-01

The effects of competition on the genetic composition of natural populations are not well understood. We combined demography and molecular genetics to study how intraspecific competition affects microevolution in cohorts of volunteer plants of cassava (Manihot esculenta) originating from seeds in slash-and-burn fields of Palikur Amerindians in French Guiana. In this clonally propagated crop, genotypic diversity is enhanced by the incorporation of volunteer plants into farmers' stocks of clonal propagules. Mortality of volunteer plants was density-dependent. Furthermore, the size asymmetry of intraspecific competition increased with local clustering of plants. Size of plants was correlated with their multilocus heterozygosity, and stronger size-dependence of survival in clusters of plants, compared with solitary plants, increased the magnitude of inbreeding depression when competition was severe. The density-dependence of inbreeding depression of volunteer plants helps explain the high heterozygosity of volunteers that survive to harvest time and thus become candidates for clonal propagation. This effect could help favour the maintenance of sex in this 'vegetatively' propagated crop plant.

The predictive value of the baseline Oswestry Disability Index in lumbar disc arthroplasty.

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Deutsch, Harel

2010-06-01

The goal of the study was to determine patient factors predictive of good outcome after lumbar disc arthroplasty. Specifically, the paper examines the relationship of the preoperative Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) to patient outcome at 1 year. The study is a retrospective review of 20 patients undergoing a 1-level lumbar disc arthroplasty at the author's institution between 2004 and 2008. All data were collected prospectively. Data included the ODI, visual analog scale scores, and patient demographics. All patients underwent a 1-level disc arthroplasty at L4-5 or L5-S1. The patients were divided into 2 groups based on their baseline ODI. Patients with an ODI between 38 and 59 demonstrated better outcomes with lumbar disc arthroplasty. Only 1 (20%) of 5 patients with a baseline ODI higher than 60 reported a good outcome. In contrast, 13 (87%) of 15 patients with an ODI between 38 and 59 showed a good outcome (p = 0.03). The negative predictive value of using ODI > 60 is 60% in patients who are determined to be candidates for lumbar arthroplasty. Lumbar arthroplasty is very effective in some patients. Other patients do not improve after surgery. The baseline ODI results are predictive of outcome in patients selected for lumbar disc arthroplasty. A baseline ODI > 60 is predictive of poor outcome. A high ODI may be indicative of psychosocial overlay.

Prediction of low birth weight: the placental T2* estimated by MRI versus the uterine artery pulsatility index

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sinding, Marianne Munk; Peters, David Alberg; Frøkjær, Jens Brøndum

(MRI) variable T2* reflects the placental oxygenation and thereby placental function. Therefore, we aimed to evaluate the performance of placental T2* in the prediction of low birth weight using the uterine artery (UtA) pulsatility index (PI) as gold standard. Methods: The study population......CONTROL ID: 2516296 ABSTRACT FINAL ID: P22.05 TITLE: Prediction of low birth weight: the placental T2* estimated by MRI versus the uterine artery pulsatility index AUTHORS (FIRST NAME, LAST NAME): Marianne Sinding1, David Peters2, Jens B. Frøkjær3, 4, Ole B. Christiansen1, 4, Astrid Petersen5...... had an EFW T2* was measured by MRI at 1.5T. A gradient recalled echo MRI sequence with readout at 16 echo times was used, and the placental T2* value was obtained by fitting the signal intensity as a function of the echo times...

Comparison of the significance of the RENAL, PADUA, and C-index nephrometric scales for the prediction of the complexity of laparoscopic nephrectomy

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Yu. G. Alyaev

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Objective: to compare the predictive value of RENAL, PADUA, C-index nephrometry score systems according to projection of complexity  of operative measure in terms of warm ischaemic time, extent of blood loss and rate of postoperative complications.Materials and methods. Information for the research was collected from 314 patients with localized kidney cancer, who had laparoscopic partial nephrectomy from January 2012 to May 2017. In 210 (66.8 % cases, in addition to the routine examinations, 3D modelling and operative measure planning were carried out. The average tumor volume of the patients was equal to 62.5 ± 33.5 mm3. All patients before  the operation were estimated the complexity of operative measure on the nephrometry score systems: PADUA, RENAL, C-index. The average sum of balls according to scale RENAL – 7.56 ± 1.12, on scale PADUA – 7.98 ± 1.55, on scale C-index – 2.76 ± 1.14. Then in retrospect by the method of logistic regression analysis was determined predictive value of RENAL, PADUA, C-index nephrometry score systems for prediction of warm ischaemic time, duration of operative measure, extent of intraoperative blood loss and possibility of rate of postoperative complications.Results. In 265 (84.4 cases transperitoneal approach was perfomed and in 49 (15.6 % cases it was retroperitoneal approach. The average time of laparoscopic partial nephrectomy is 140.15 ± 55.8 min, the average time of ischaemic warm is 13.35 ± 7,65 min. The average extent of blood loss during the laparoscopic partial nephrectomy is 291.95 ± 196.5 ml. Intraoperative complications were found in 8 (2.54 % cases. Postoperative complications were estimated according to the Clavien–Dindo classification of surgical complications and were found in 31  (9.9 % cases, among them 12 (3.8 % patients had surgical complications. The index of the RENAL nephrometry scoring system had the highest predictive value in the multivariant analysis for warm ischaemic

Remnant Pachira quinata pasture trees have greater opportunities to self and suffer reduced reproductive success due to inbreeding depression.

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Rymer, P D; Sandiford, M; Harris, S A; Billingham, M R; Boshier, D H

2015-08-01

Habitat fragmentation is extensive throughout the world, converting natural ecosystems into fragments of varying size, density and connectivity. The potential value of remnant trees in agricultural landscapes as seed sources and in connecting fragments has formed a fertile area of debate. This study contrasted the mating patterns of bat-pollinated Pachira quinata trees in a continuous forest to those in pasture through microsatellite-based paternity analysis of progeny. The breeding system was determined by analysis of pollen tube growth and seed production from controlled pollinations. Fitness of selfed and outcrossed seed was compared by germination and seedling growth. There was more inbreeding within pasture trees (outcrossing=0.828±0.015) compared with forest trees (0.926±0.005). Pasture trees had fewer sires contributing to mating events, but pollen dispersal distances were greater than those in the forest. Paternity analysis showed variation in outcrossing rates among pasture trees with high proportions of external and self pollen sources detected. A leaky self-incompatibility system was found, with self pollen having reduced germination on stigmas and slower growth rate through the style. Controlled pollinations also showed a varied ability to self among trees, which was reflected in the selfing rates among pasture trees shown by the paternity analysis (0-80% selfing). Self pollination resulted in lower seed set, germination and seedling growth compared with outcrossing. While remnant trees in agricultural landscapes are involved in broader mating patterns, they show increased but varied levels of inbreeding, which result in reduced fitness.

Prostate Health Index improves multivariable risk prediction of aggressive prostate cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Loeb, Stacy; Shin, Sanghyuk S; Broyles, Dennis L; Wei, John T; Sanda, Martin; Klee, George; Partin, Alan W; Sokoll, Lori; Chan, Daniel W; Bangma, Chris H; van Schaik, Ron H N; Slawin, Kevin M; Marks, Leonard S; Catalona, William J

2017-07-01

To examine the use of the Prostate Health Index (PHI) as a continuous variable in multivariable risk assessment for aggressive prostate cancer in a large multicentre US study. The study population included 728 men, with prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels of 2-10 ng/mL and a negative digital rectal examination, enrolled in a prospective, multi-site early detection trial. The primary endpoint was aggressive prostate cancer, defined as biopsy Gleason score ≥7. First, we evaluated whether the addition of PHI improves the performance of currently available risk calculators (the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial [PCPT] and European Randomised Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer [ERSPC] risk calculators). We also designed and internally validated a new PHI-based multivariable predictive model, and created a nomogram. Of 728 men undergoing biopsy, 118 (16.2%) had aggressive prostate cancer. The PHI predicted the risk of aggressive prostate cancer across the spectrum of values. Adding PHI significantly improved the predictive accuracy of the PCPT and ERSPC risk calculators for aggressive disease. A new model was created using age, previous biopsy, prostate volume, PSA and PHI, with an area under the curve of 0.746. The bootstrap-corrected model showed good calibration with observed risk for aggressive prostate cancer and had net benefit on decision-curve analysis. Using PHI as part of multivariable risk assessment leads to a significant improvement in the detection of aggressive prostate cancer, potentially reducing harms from unnecessary prostate biopsy and overdiagnosis. © 2016 The Authors BJU International © 2016 BJU International Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Limited accuracy of the hyperbaric index, ambulatory blood pressure and sphygmomanometry measurements in predicting gestational hypertension and preeclampsia

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vollebregt, Karlijn Corien; Gisolf, Janneke; Guelen, Ilja; Boer, Kees; van Montfrans, Gert; Wolf, Hans

2010-01-01

Objective The aim of this study was to validate the hyperbaric index (HBI) for first trimester prediction of preeclampsia and gestational hypertension. Methods Participants were low-risk and high-risk nulliparous women and high-risk multiparous women, and were recruited between April 2004 and June

A combination of compositional index and genetic algorithm for predicting transmembrane helical segments.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nazar Zaki

Full Text Available Transmembrane helix (TMH topology prediction is becoming a focal problem in bioinformatics because the structure of TM proteins is difficult to determine using experimental methods. Therefore, methods that can computationally predict the topology of helical membrane proteins are highly desirable. In this paper we introduce TMHindex, a method for detecting TMH segments using only the amino acid sequence information. Each amino acid in a protein sequence is represented by a Compositional Index, which is deduced from a combination of the difference in amino acid occurrences in TMH and non-TMH segments in training protein sequences and the amino acid composition information. Furthermore, a genetic algorithm was employed to find the optimal threshold value for the separation of TMH segments from non-TMH segments. The method successfully predicted 376 out of the 378 TMH segments in a dataset consisting of 70 test protein sequences. The sensitivity and specificity for classifying each amino acid in every protein sequence in the dataset was 0.901 and 0.865, respectively. To assess the generality of TMHindex, we also tested the approach on another standard 73-protein 3D helix dataset. TMHindex correctly predicted 91.8% of proteins based on TM segments. The level of the accuracy achieved using TMHindex in comparison to other recent approaches for predicting the topology of TM proteins is a strong argument in favor of our proposed method.The datasets, software together with supplementary materials are available at: http://faculty.uaeu.ac.ae/nzaki/TMHindex.htm.

Waist Circumference, Body Mass Index, and Other Measures of Adiposity in Predicting Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors among Peruvian Adults

OpenAIRE

Knowles, K. M.; Paiva, L. L.; Sanchez, S. E.; Revilla, L.; Lopez, T.; Yasuda, M. B.; Yanez, N. D.; Gelaye, B.; Williams, M. A.

2011-01-01

Objectives. To examine the extent to which measures of adiposity can be used to predict selected components of metabolic syndrome (MetS) and elevated C-reactive protein (CRP). Methods. A total of 1,518 Peruvian adults were included in this study. Waist circumference (WC), body mass index (BMI), waist-hip ratio (WHR), waist-height ratio (WHtR), and visceral adiposity index (VAI) were examined. The prevalence of each MetS component was determined according to tertiles of each anthropometric mea...

Prediction Center (CPC) Tropical/ Northern Hemisphere Teleconnection Pattern Index

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Monthly tabulated index of the Tropical/ Northern Hemisphere teleconnection pattern. The data spans the period 1950 to present. The index is derived from a rotated...

Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Pacific Transition Teleconnection Pattern Index

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Monthly tabulated index of the Pacific Transition teleconnection pattern. The data spans the period 1950 to present. The index is derived from a rotated principal...

Climate Prediction Center (CPC) East Atlantic Teleconnection Pattern Index

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Monthly tabulated index of the East Atlantic Teleconnection pattern. The data spans the period 1950 to present. The index is derived from a rotated principal...

Climate Prediction Center (CPC) West Pacific Teleconnection Pattern Index

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Monthly tabulated index of the West Pacific (WP) teleconnection pattern. The data spans the period 1950 to present. The index is derived from a rotated principal...

Ferritin and body mass index predict cardiac dysfunction in female adolescents with anorexia of the restrictive type.

Science.gov (United States)

Docx, Martine K F; Weyler, Joost; Simons, Annik; Ramet, José; Mertens, Luc

2015-08-01

Decreased left ventricular mass index in anorexia nervosa is amply reported. The aim of this study is to identify non-burdensome predictors of reduced left yentricular mass/height (cLVM) in a cohort of adolescent restrictive anorexic girls. This is a retrospective study of all anorexic girls of the restrictive type referred to our tertiary eating disorder unit between September 2002 and December 2012, for somatic assessment of weig ht loss. All subjects fulfilled DMS-IV criteria, without a family history of cardiac or cardiovascular diseases. In all, 283 restrictive anorexic girls (age: 14.63 +/- 1.65 y; body mass index: 15.72 +/- 1.81 kg/m2) were included. Ferritin and body mass index were independent, statistically significant predictors of the corrected left ventricular mass (P anorexia nervosa of the restrictive type. Two factors predicted decreased cLVM in our population: ferritin and BMI.

Prediction of Mortality with A Body Shape Index in Young Asians: Comparison with Body Mass Index and Waist Circumference.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Da-Young; Lee, Mi-Yeon; Sung, Ki-Chul

2018-06-01

This paper investigated the impact of A Body Shape Index (ABSI) on the risk of all-cause mortality compared with the impact of waist circumference (WC) and body mass index (BMI). This paper reviewed data of 213,569 Korean adults who participated in health checkups between 2002 and 2012 at Kangbuk Samsung Hospital in Seoul, Korea. A multivariate Cox proportional hazard analysis was performed on the BMI, WC, and ABSI z score continuous variables as well as quintiles. During 1,168,668.7 person-years, 1,107 deaths occurred. As continuous variables, a significant positive relationship with the risk of all-cause death was found only in ABSI z scores after adjustment for age, sex, current smoking, alcohol consumption, regular exercise, presence of diabetes or hypertension, and history of cardiovascular diseases. In Cox analysis of quintiles, quintile 5 of the ABSI z score showed significantly increased hazard ratios (HRs) for mortality risk (HR [95% CI] was 1.32 [1.05-1.66]), whereas the risk for all-cause mortality, on the other hand, decreased in quintiles 3 through 5 of BMI and WC compared with their first quintiles after adjusting for several confounders. This study showed that the predictive value of ABSI for mortality risk was strong for a sample of young Asian participants and that its usefulness was better than BMI or WC. © 2018 The Obesity Society.

Role of bedside index for severity of acute pancreatitis (bisap score in predicting outcome in acute pancreatitis

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Shahnawaz Bashir Bhat

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Objective: To investigate the role of Bedside index for severity of acute pancreatitis (BISAP score in predicting the outcome of acute pancreatitis. Methods: This single hospital based prospective study included fifty patients of acute pancreatitis admitted within 48 hours of onset of symptoms, who were divided into two groups according to admission BISAP score. BISAP score 3 (severe acute pancreatitis. The ability of BISAP score to predict mortality, morbidity and hospital stay in acute pancreatitis patients was analyzed. Results: A BISAP score of >3 was associated with increased risk of development of transient organ failure, persistent organ failure and pancreatic necrosis (Statistically significant. Mortality in group with BISAP and #8805;3 was 23.5% (4 patients which was statistically higher than group with BISAP score and #706;3 (0 patients (p=0.019.The mean duration of hospital stay of patients in group with BISAP score < 3 was 7.58 +/- 4.04 days and in group with BISAP score and #8805;3 was 15.35 +/- 1.66.(p=0.02. Conclusion: Bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP score, at admission is an excellent score in predicting the mortality, morbidity and hospital stay and hence management protocol in patients admitted with acute pancreatitis. [J Contemp Med 2015; 5(4.000: 215-220

Interpreting weightings of the peer assessment rating index and the discrepancy index across contexts on Chinese patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Siqi; Oh, Heesoo; Chambers, David William; Xu, Tianmin; Baumrind, Sheldon

2018-04-06

Determine optimal weightings of Peer Assessment Rating (PAR) index and Discrepancy Index (DI) for malocclusion severity assessment in Chinese orthodontic patients. Sixty-nine Chinese orthodontists assessed a full set of pre-treatment records from a stratified random sample of 120 subjects gathered from six university orthodontic centres. Using professional judgment as the outcome variable, multiple regression analyses were performed to derive customized weighting systems for the PAR index and DI, for all subjects and each Angle classification subgroup. Professional judgment was consistent, with an Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC) of 0.995. The PAR index or DI can be reliably measured, with ICC = 0.959 and 0.990, respectively. The predictive accuracy of PAR index was greatly improved by the Chinese weighting process (from r = 0.431 to r = 0.788) with almost equal distribution in each Angle classification subgroup. The Chinese-weighted DI showed a higher predictive accuracy, at P = 0.01, compared with the PAR index (r = 0.851 versus r = 0.788). A better performance was found in the Class II group (r = 0.890) when compared to Class I (r = 0.736) and III (r = 0.785) groups. The Chinese-weighted PAR index and DI were capable of predicting 62 per cent and 73 per cent of total variance in the professional judgment of malocclusion severity in Chinese patients. Differential prediction across Angle classifications merits attention since different weighting formulas were found.

Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis: Gender-Age-Physiology Index Stage for Predicting Future Lung Function Decline.

Science.gov (United States)

Salisbury, Margaret L; Xia, Meng; Zhou, Yueren; Murray, Susan; Tayob, Nabihah; Brown, Kevin K; Wells, Athol U; Schmidt, Shelley L; Martinez, Fernando J; Flaherty, Kevin R

2016-02-01

Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis is a progressive lung disease with variable course. The Gender-Age-Physiology (GAP) Index and staging system uses clinical variables to stage mortality risk. It is unknown whether clinical staging predicts future decline in pulmonary function. We assessed whether the GAP stage predicts future pulmonary function decline and whether interval pulmonary function change predicts mortality after accounting for stage. Patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (N = 657) were identified retrospectively at three tertiary referral centers, and baseline GAP stages were assessed. Mixed models were used to describe average trajectories of FVC and diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide (Dlco). Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess whether declines in pulmonary function ≥ 10% in 6 months predict mortality after accounting for GAP stage. Over a 2-year period, GAP stage was not associated with differences in yearly lung function decline. After accounting for stage, a 10% decrease in FVC or Dlco over 6 months independently predicted death or transplantation (FVC hazard ratio, 1.37; Dlco hazard ratio, 1.30; both, P ≤ .03). Patients with GAP stage 2 with declining pulmonary function experienced a survival profile similar to patients with GAP stage 3, with 1-year event-free survival of 59.3% (95% CI, 49.4-67.8) vs 56.9% (95% CI, 42.2-69.1). Baseline GAP stage predicted death or lung transplantation but not the rate of future pulmonary function decline. After accounting for GAP stage, a decline of ≥ 10% over 6 months independently predicted death or lung transplantation. Copyright © 2016 American College of Chest Physicians. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A novel clinical index for the assessment of RVD in acute pulmonary embolism: Blood pressure index.

Science.gov (United States)

Ates, Hale; Ates, Ihsan; Kundi, Harun; Arikan, Mehmet Fettah; Yilmaz, Fatma Meric

2017-10-01

This study aims to investigate the role of the blood pressure index (BPI), which is a new index that we developed, in detection of right ventricular dysfunction (RVD) in acute pulmonary embolism (APE). A total of 539 patients, (253 males and 286 females), diagnosed with APE using computer tomography pulmonary angiography were included in the study. The BPI was obtained by dividing systolic blood pressure (SBP) by diastolic blood pressure (DBP). Mean DBP (75±11mmHg vs 63±15mmHg; p<0.001, respectively) was found to be higher in RVD patients compared to those without RVD, whereas BPI (1.5±0.1 vs 1.9±0.2; p<0.001, respectively) was lower. Examining the performance of BPI in prediction of RVD using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis (area under curve±SE=0.975±0.006; p<0.001), it was found that BPI could predict RVD with very high sensitivity (92.8%) and specificity (100%) and had a positive predictive value of 100% and a negative predictive value of 42.1%. According to the analysis, the highest youden index for the optimal prediction value was found to be 0.478 and the BPI≤1.4 was found to predict mortality 68.6% sensitivity and 80.8% specificity (Area under curve±SE=0.777±0.051; p<0.001). We found that BPI was an index with high positive predictive value and low negative predictive value in detection of RVD. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Disruption of endosperm development: an inbreeding effect in almond (Prunus dulcis).

Science.gov (United States)

Ortega, Encarnación; Martínez-García, Pedro J; Dicenta, Federico; Egea, José

2010-06-01

A homozygous self-compatible almond, originated from self-fertilization of a self-compatible genotype and producing a reasonable yield following open pollination, exhibited a very high fruit drop rate when self-pollinated. To investigate whether fruit dropping in this individual is related to an abnormal development of the embryo sac following self-fertilization, histological sections of ovaries from self and cross-pollinated flowers were observed by light microscopy. Additionally, the presence of pollen tubes in the ovary and fruit set were determined for both types of pollination. Despite pollen tubes reached the ovary after both pollinations, differences in embryo sac and endosperm development after fertilization were found. Thus, while for cross-fertilized ovules a pro-embryo and an endosperm with abundant nuclei were generally observed, most self-fertilized ovules remained in a previous developmental stage in which the embryo sac was not elongated and endosperm nuclei were absent. Although 30 days after pollination fruit set was similar for both pollination types, at 60 days it was significantly reduced for self-pollination. These results provide evidence that the high fruit drop in this genotype is the consequence of a disrupted development of the endosperm, what could be an expression of its high level of inbreeding.

Predictive validity of the GOSLON Yardstick index in patients with unilateral cleft lip and palate: A systematic review.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cindy Buj-Acosta

Full Text Available Among the various indices developed for measuring the results of treatment in patients born with unilateral cleft lip and palate (UCLP, the GOSLON Yardstick index is the most widely used to assess the efficacy of treatment and treatment outcomes, which in UCLP cases are closely linked to jaw growth. The aim of this study was to conduct a systematic review to validate the predictability of growth using the GOSLON Yardstick in patients born with UCLP. A systematic literature review was conducted in four Internet databases: Medline, Cochrane Library, Scopus and Embase, complemented by a manual search and a further search in the databases of the leading journals that focus on this topic. An electronic search was also conducted among grey literature. The search identified a total of 131 articles. Duplicated articles were excluded and after reading titles and abstracts, any articles not related to the research objective were excluded, leaving a total of 21 texts. After reading the complete text, only three articles fulfilled the inclusion criteria. The results showed a predictive validity of between 42.2% and 64.7%, which points to a lack of evidence in the literature for the predictive validity of the GOSLON Yardstick index used in children born with UCLP.

Development of a Late-Life Dementia Prediction Index with Supervised Machine Learning in the Population-Based CAIDE Study.

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Pekkala, Timo; Hall, Anette; Lötjönen, Jyrki; Mattila, Jussi; Soininen, Hilkka; Ngandu, Tiia; Laatikainen, Tiina; Kivipelto, Miia; Solomon, Alina

2017-01-01

This study aimed to develop a late-life dementia prediction model using a novel validated supervised machine learning method, the Disease State Index (DSI), in the Finnish population-based CAIDE study. The CAIDE study was based on previous population-based midlife surveys. CAIDE participants were re-examined twice in late-life, and the first late-life re-examination was used as baseline for the present study. The main study population included 709 cognitively normal subjects at first re-examination who returned to the second re-examination up to 10 years later (incident dementia n = 39). An extended population (n = 1009, incident dementia 151) included non-participants/non-survivors (national registers data). DSI was used to develop a dementia index based on first re-examination assessments. Performance in predicting dementia was assessed as area under the ROC curve (AUC). AUCs for DSI were 0.79 and 0.75 for main and extended populations. Included predictors were cognition, vascular factors, age, subjective memory complaints, and APOE genotype. The supervised machine learning method performed well in identifying comprehensive profiles for predicting dementia development up to 10 years later. DSI could thus be useful for identifying individuals who are most at risk and may benefit from dementia prevention interventions.

Prediction of fermentation index of cocoa beans (Theobroma cacao L.) based on color measurement and artificial neural networks.

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León-Roque, Noemí; Abderrahim, Mohamed; Nuñez-Alejos, Luis; Arribas, Silvia M; Condezo-Hoyos, Luis

2016-12-01

Several procedures are currently used to assess fermentation index (FI) of cocoa beans (Theobroma cacao L.) for quality control. However, all of them present several drawbacks. The aim of the present work was to develop and validate a simple image based quantitative procedure, using color measurement and artificial neural network (ANNs). ANN models based on color measurements were tested to predict fermentation index (FI) of fermented cocoa beans. The RGB values were measured from surface and center region of fermented beans in images obtained by camera and desktop scanner. The FI was defined as the ratio of total free amino acids in fermented versus non-fermented samples. The ANN model that included RGB color measurement of fermented cocoa surface and R/G ratio in cocoa bean of alkaline extracts was able to predict FI with no statistical difference compared with the experimental values. Performance of the ANN model was evaluated by the coefficient of determination, Bland-Altman plot and Passing-Bablok regression analyses. Moreover, in fermented beans, total sugar content and titratable acidity showed a similar pattern to the total free amino acid predicted through the color based ANN model. The results of the present work demonstrate that the proposed ANN model can be adopted as a low-cost and in situ procedure to predict FI in fermented cocoa beans through apps developed for mobile device. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Generalizability of the Disease State Index Prediction Model for Identifying Patients Progressing from Mild Cognitive Impairment to Alzheimer's Disease

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hall, A.; Munoz-Ruiz, M.; Mattila, J.; Koikkalainen, J.; Tsolaki, M.; Mecocci, P.; Kloszewska, I.; Vellas, B.; Lovestone, S.; Visser, P.J.; Lotjonen, J.; Soininen, H.

2015-01-01

Background: The Disease State Index (DSI) prediction model measures the similarity of patient data to diagnosed stable and progressive mild cognitive impairment (MCI) cases to identify patients who are progressing to Alzheimer's disease. Objectives: We evaluated how well the DSI generalizes across

The Predictive Value of Integrated Pulmonary Index after Off-Pump Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting: A Prospective Observational Study

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Evgenia V. Fot

2017-08-01

Full Text Available BackgroundThe early warning scores may increase the safety of perioperative period. The objective of this study was to assess the diagnostic and predictive role of Integrated Pulmonary Index (IPI after off-pump coronary artery bypass grafting (OPCAB.Materials and MethodsForty adult patients undergoing elective OPCAB were enrolled into a single-center prospective observational study. We assessed respiratory function using IPI that includes oxygen saturation, end-tidal CO2, respiratory rate, and pulse rate. In addition, we evaluated blood gas analyses and hemodynamics, including ECG, invasive arterial pressure, and cardiac index. The measurements were performed after transfer to the intensive care unit, after spontaneous breathing trial and at 2, 6, 12, and 18 h after extubation.Results and DiscussionThe value of IPI registered during respiratory support correlated weakly with cardiac index (rho = 0.4; p = 0.04 and ScvO2 (rho = 0.4, p = 0.02. After extubation, IPI values decreased significantly, achieving a minimum by 18 h. The IPI value ≤9 at 6 h after extubation was a predictor of complicated early postoperative period (AUC = 0.71; p = 0.04 observed in 13 patients.ConclusionIn off-pump coronary surgery, the IPI decreases significantly after tracheal extubation and may predict postoperative complications.

A novel structural risk index for primary spontaneous pneumothorax: Ankara Numune Risk Index.

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Akkas, Yucel; Peri, Neslihan Gulay; Kocer, Bulent; Kaplan, Tevfik; Alhan, Aslihan

2017-07-01

In this study, we aimed to reveal a novel risk index as a structural risk marker for primary spontanoeus pneumothorax using body mass index and chest height, structural risk factors for pneumothorax development. Records of 86 cases admitted between February 2014 and January 2015 with or without primary spontaneous pneumothorax were analysed retrospectively. The patients were allocated to two groups as Group I and Group II. The patients were evaluated with regard to age, gender, pneumothorax side, duration of hospital stay, treatment type, recurrence, chest height and transverse diameter on posteroanterior chest graphy and body mass index. Body mass index ratio per cm of chest height was calculated by dividing body mass index with chest height. We named this risk index ratio which is defined first as 'Ankara Numune Risk Index'. Diagnostic value of Ankara Numune Risk Index value for prediction of primary spontaneous pneumothorax development was analysed with Receiver Operating Characteristics curver. Of 86 patients, 69 (80.2%) were male and 17 (19.8%) were female. Each group was composed of 43 (50%) patients. When Receiver Operating Characteristics curve analysis was done for optimal limit value 0.74 of Ankara Numune Risk Index determined for prediction of pneumothorax development risk, area under the curve was 0.925 (95% Cl, 0.872-0.977, p pneumothorax development however it is insufficient for determining recurrence. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Taiwan.

Climate Prediction Center (CPC)Oceanic Nino Index

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) is one of the primary indices used to monitor the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The ONI is calculated by averaging sea surface...

Consciousness Indexing and Outcome Prediction with Resting-State EEG in Severe Disorders of Consciousness.

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Stefan, Sabina; Schorr, Barbara; Lopez-Rolon, Alex; Kolassa, Iris-Tatjana; Shock, Jonathan P; Rosenfelder, Martin; Heck, Suzette; Bender, Andreas

2018-04-17

We applied the following methods to resting-state EEG data from patients with disorders of consciousness (DOC) for consciousness indexing and outcome prediction: microstates, entropy (i.e. approximate, permutation), power in alpha and delta frequency bands, and connectivity (i.e. weighted symbolic mutual information, symbolic transfer entropy, complex network analysis). Patients with unresponsive wakefulness syndrome (UWS) and patients in a minimally conscious state (MCS) were classified into these two categories by fitting and testing a generalised linear model. We aimed subsequently to develop an automated system for outcome prediction in severe DOC by selecting an optimal subset of features using sequential floating forward selection (SFFS). The two outcome categories were defined as UWS or dead, and MCS or emerged from MCS. Percentage of time spent in microstate D in the alpha frequency band performed best at distinguishing MCS from UWS patients. The average clustering coefficient obtained from thresholding beta coherence performed best at predicting outcome. The optimal subset of features selected with SFFS consisted of the frequency of microstate A in the 2-20 Hz frequency band, path length obtained from thresholding alpha coherence, and average path length obtained from thresholding alpha coherence. Combining these features seemed to afford high prediction power. Python and MATLAB toolboxes for the above calculations are freely available under the GNU public license for non-commercial use ( https://qeeg.wordpress.com ).

Role of Transition Zone Index in the Prediction of Clinical Benign Prostatic Hyperplasia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Muhammet Güzelsoy

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Objective The objective of this study was to determine the role of the transition zone (TZ index (TZI in the prediction of clinical benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH in patients who underwent transurethral prostatectomy (TUR-P and to analyze the correlation between the amount of resected tissue and TZ volume (TZV. Materials and Methods Twenty-six male clinical BPH patients with obstructive complaints and 17 male benign prostate enlargement (BPE patients without any complaints were included in the study. Both the groups were over the age of 50. Clinical BPH patients underwent complete TUR-P. Statistical analysis was done with SPSS. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of TZI-as a method of assessing clinical BPH-were measured. Results There was a statistically significant difference in prostate volume, uroflowmetry patterns, prostate-specific antigen (PSA, International prostate symptom score (IPSS, TZV and TZI between the two groups. There was a correlation between TZV and the amount of resected tissue (r=0.97; p0.40 has a high level of sensitivity and specificity in the prediction of clinical BPH among patients who undergo TUR-P due to obstructive symptoms and reported as BPH. There is a strong correlation between the amount of resected tissue and TZV. TZI is a valuable tool in diagnosis, and TZV gives valuable information about the patient to the surgeon.

Pre-operative Tei Index does not predict left ventricular function immediately after mitral valve repair

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Chirojit Mukherjee

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Echocardiographic assessment of systolic left ventricular (LV function in patients with severe mitral regurgitation (MR undergoing mitral valve (MV repair can be challenging because the measurement of ejection fraction (EF or fractional area change (FAC in pathological states is of questionable value. The aim of our study was to evaluate the usefulness of the pre-operative Tei Index in predicting left ventricular EF or FAC immediately after MV repair. One hundred and thirty patients undergoing MV repair with sinus rhythm pre- and post-operatively were enrolled in this prospective study. Twenty-six patients were excluded due to absence of sinus rhythm post-operatively. Standard transesophageal examination(IE 33,Philips,Netherlands was performed before and after cardiopulmonary bypass according to the guidelines of the ASE/SCA. FAC was determined in the transgastric midpapillary short-axis view. LV EF was measured in the midesophageal four- and two-chamber view. For calculation of the Tei Index, the deep transgastric and the midesophageal four-chamber view were used. Statistical analysis was performed with SPSS 17.0. values are expressed as mean with standard deviation. LV FAC and EF decreased significantly after MV repair (FAC: 56±12% vs. 50±14%, P<0.001; EF: 58±11 vs. 50±12Έ P<0.001. The Tei Index decreased from 0.66±0.23 before MV repair to 0.41±0.19 afterwards (P<0.001. No relationship between pre-operative Tei Index and post-operative FAC or post-operative EF were found (FAC: r=−0.061, P=0.554; EF: r=−0.29, P=0.771. Conclusion: Pre-operative Tei Index is not a good predictor for post-operative FAC and EF in patients undergoing MV repair.

Predicting Covariance Matrices with Financial Conditions Indexes

NARCIS (Netherlands)

A. Opschoor (Anne); D.J.C. van Dijk (Dick); M. van der Wel (Michel)

2013-01-01

textabstractWe model the impact of financial conditions on asset market volatility and correlation. We propose extensions of (factor-)GARCH models for volatility and DCC models for correlation that allow for including indexes that measure financial conditions. In our empirical application we

Applying reaction condition index to predict sandstone type uranium deposit

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen Gongxin; Liu Jinhui; Cheng Hai

2002-01-01

On the basic of the explanation of reaction condition index, the deduction of reaction condition index calculation principle, the hydrogeological setting in Gongpoquan basin in Baishan, Gansu province and the study of reaction condition index of its water source point, the north Luotuoquan area in Gongpoquan basin seems to be a favourable place for sandstone type uranium deposit, and the prospect area for sandstone type uranium deposit is delimitated

Minimally invasive prediction of ScvO2 in high-risk surgery : The introduction of a model Index of Oxygenation

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de Grooth, Harm-Jan S.; Vos, Jaap Jan; Scheeren, Thomas; van Beest, Paul

2014-01-01

INTRODUCTION: The purpose of this study was to examine the trilateral relationship between cardiac index (CI), tissue oxygen saturation (StO2) and central venous oxygen saturation (ScvO2) and subsequently develop a model to predict ScvO2 on minimal invasive manner in patients undergoing major

Modified GAP index for prediction of acute exacerbation of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis in non-small cell lung cancer.

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Kobayashi, Haruki; Omori, Shota; Nakashima, Kazuhisa; Wakuda, Kazushige; Ono, Akira; Kenmotsu, Hirotsugu; Naito, Tateaki; Murakami, Haruyasu; Endo, Masahiro; Takahashi, Toshiaki

2017-10-01

Predicting the incidence rate of acute exacerbation (AE) of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) and its prognosis in patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and IPF is difficult. The aim was to study the incidence of IPF-AE during the clinical course of the disease and its prognosis in patients with both NSCLC and IPF. In this retrospective study, we compared the incidence rate of AE during the clinical course of the disease as well as the 1-year survival rate and overall survival (OS) of patients with NSCLC and IPF using a modified gender, age and physiology (mGAP) staging system based on gender, age and percent predicted forced vital capacity. Of 43 patients with NSCLC and IPF included in the final analysis, 17 patients (40%; 95% CI: 26-54%) experienced AE during the clinical course of the disease. One-year survival and median OS were 41.9% (95% CI: 28-57%) and 9.4 months, respectively. Further analysis showed that the incidence of IPF-AE gradually increased and that the 1-year survival rate and median OS gradually decreased with increasing mGAP index score and stage. Our study suggested that mGAP index score and cancer stage may predict IPF-AE and its prognosis in patients with NSCLC and IPF. © 2017 Asian Pacific Society of Respirology.

Climate Prediction Center - Site Index

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Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Prediction Center Home Site Map News Means Bulletins Annual Winter Stratospheric Ozone Climate Diagnostics Bulletin (Most Recent) Climate (Hazards Outlook) Climate Assessment: Dec. 1999-Feb. 2000 (Seasonal) Climate Assessment: Mar-May 2000

A strategy analysis for genetic association studies with known inbreeding

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del Giacco Stefano

2011-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Association studies consist in identifying the genetic variants which are related to a specific disease through the use of statistical multiple hypothesis testing or segregation analysis in pedigrees. This type of studies has been very successful in the case of Mendelian monogenic disorders while it has been less successful in identifying genetic variants related to complex diseases where the insurgence depends on the interactions between different genes and the environment. The current technology allows to genotype more than a million of markers and this number has been rapidly increasing in the last years with the imputation based on templates sets and whole genome sequencing. This type of data introduces a great amount of noise in the statistical analysis and usually requires a great number of samples. Current methods seldom take into account gene-gene and gene-environment interactions which are fundamental especially in complex diseases. In this paper we propose to use a non-parametric additive model to detect the genetic variants related to diseases which accounts for interactions of unknown order. Although this is not new to the current literature, we show that in an isolated population, where the most related subjects share also most of their genetic code, the use of additive models may be improved if the available genealogical tree is taken into account. Specifically, we form a sample of cases and controls with the highest inbreeding by means of the Hungarian method, and estimate the set of genes/environmental variables, associated with the disease, by means of Random Forest. Results We have evidence, from statistical theory, simulations and two applications, that we build a suitable procedure to eliminate stratification between cases and controls and that it also has enough precision in identifying genetic variants responsible for a disease. This procedure has been successfully used for the beta-thalassemia, which is

Dengue Baidu Search Index data can improve the prediction of local dengue epidemic: A case study in Guangzhou, China.

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Zhihao Li

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Dengue fever (DF in Guangzhou, Guangdong province in China is an important public health issue. The problem was highlighted in 2014 by a large, unprecedented outbreak. In order to respond in a more timely manner and hence better control such potential outbreaks in the future, this study develops an early warning model that integrates internet-based query data into traditional surveillance data.A Dengue Baidu Search Index (DBSI was collected from the Baidu website for developing a predictive model of dengue fever in combination with meteorological and demographic factors. Generalized additive models (GAM with or without DBSI were established. The generalized cross validation (GCV score and deviance explained indexes, intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC and root mean squared error (RMSE, were respectively applied to measure the fitness and the prediction capability of the models. Our results show that the DBSI with one-week lag has a positive linear relationship with the local DF occurrence, and the model with DBSI (ICC:0.94 and RMSE:59.86 has a better prediction capability than the model without DBSI (ICC:0.72 and RMSE:203.29.Our study suggests that a DSBI combined with traditional disease surveillance and meteorological data can improve the dengue early warning system in Guangzhou.

Predictive validity of the Work Ability Index and its individual items in the general population.

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Lundin, Andreas; Leijon, Ola; Vaez, Marjan; Hallgren, Mats; Torgén, Margareta

2017-06-01

This study assesses the predictive ability of the full Work Ability Index (WAI) as well as its individual items in the general population. The Work, Health and Retirement Study (WHRS) is a stratified random national sample of 25-75-year-olds living in Sweden in 2000 that received a postal questionnaire ( n = 6637, response rate = 53%). Current and subsequent sickness absence was obtained from registers. The ability of the WAI to predict long-term sickness absence (LTSA; ⩾ 90 consecutive days) during a period of four years was analysed by logistic regression, from which the Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUC) was computed. There were 313 incident LTSA cases among 1786 employed individuals. The full WAI had acceptable ability to predict LTSA during the 4-year follow-up (AUC = 0.79; 95% CI 0.76 to 0.82). Individual items were less stable in their predictive ability. However, three of the individual items: current work ability compared with lifetime best, estimated work impairment due to diseases, and number of diagnosed current diseases, exceeded AUC > 0.70. Excluding the WAI item on number of days on sickness absence did not result in an inferior predictive ability of the WAI. The full WAI has acceptable predictive validity, and is superior to its individual items. For public health surveys, three items may be suitable proxies of the full WAI; current work ability compared with lifetime best, estimated work impairment due to diseases, and number of current diseases diagnosed by a physician.

Prediction of immediate postoperative pain using the analgesia/nociception index: a prospective observational study.

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Boselli, E; Bouvet, L; Bégou, G; Dabouz, R; Davidson, J; Deloste, J-Y; Rahali, N; Zadam, A; Allaouchiche, B

2014-04-01

The analgesia/nociception index (ANI) is derived from heart rate variability, ranging from 0 (maximal nociception) to 100 (maximal analgesia), to reflect the analgesia/nociception balance during general anaesthesia. This should be correlated with immediate postoperative pain in the post-anaesthesia care unit (PACU). The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of ANI measured at arousal from general anaesthesia to predict immediate postoperative pain on arrival in PACU. Two hundred patients undergoing ear, nose, and throat or lower limb orthopaedic surgery with general anaesthesia using an inhalational agent and remifentanil were included in this prospective observational study. The ANI was measured immediately before tracheal extubation and pain intensity was assessed within 10 min of arrival in PACU using a 0-10 numerical rating scale (NRS). The relationship between ANI and NRS was assessed using linear regression. A receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to evaluate the performance of ANI to predict NRS>3. A negative linear relationship was observed between ANI immediately before extubation and NRS on arrival in PACU. Using a threshold of 3 were both 86% with 92% negative predictive value, corresponding to an area under the ROC curve of 0.89. The measurement of ANI immediately before extubation after inhalation-remifentanil anaesthesia was significantly associated with pain intensity on arrival in PACU. The performance of ANI for the prediction of immediate postoperative pain is good and may assist physicians in optimizing acute pain management. ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01796249.

Endogamia, fixação de alelos e limite de seleção em populações selecionadas por métodos tradicionais e associados a marcadores moleculares Inbreeding, alleles fixation and selection limit in populations under traditional or marker assisted selection methods

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Paulo Luiz Souza Carneiro

2007-04-01

Full Text Available Objetivou-se avaliar o coeficiente de endogamia, a fixação de alelos e o limite de seleção em populações selecionadas durante 20 gerações. A seleção foi baseada nos valores genéticos preditos pelo BLUP clássico (BLUP e pelo BLUP marcadores (BLUPM e na seleção individual (SI utilizando diferentes sistemas de acasalamento. Para se obter a matriz de similaridade genética utilizada no BLUPM, foram simulados 100 marcadores moleculares do tipo microssatélite, por meio de um coeficiente de similaridade correspondente à distância euclidiana média para dados quantitativos. Para comparar os diferentes métodos de seleção, utilizaram-se populações com tamanho efetivo de 66,66 e média de 30 repetições. Observou-se maior incremento de endogamia para o BLUPM, seguido pelo BLUP e SI. Os métodos baseados no BLUP levaram a maior fixação de alelos favoráveis e desfavoráveis. O BLUPM foi o método que proporcionou maior redução no limite de seleção nas 20 gerações avaliadas. Os acasalamentos dos reprodutores selecionados que excluíram o acasalamento entre irmãos resultaram em menor taxa de incremento de endogamia, menores perdas pela fixação de alelos desfavoráveis e menor redução no limite da seleção.This study aimed to evaluate the inbreeding coefficient, alleles fixation and selection limit in a population selected during 20 generations. Selection was based on breeding values predicted by classical best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP, BLUP associated with molecular markers (BLUPM and individual selection (IS using different mating designs. The genetic similarity matrix used in BLUPM was obtained by simulating 100 micro satellite markers (simple sequence repeats using a similarity coefficient corresponding to the mean Euclidean distance between quantitative data. The selection methods were compared using populations with an effective size of 66.66 and a mean of 30 repetitions. The largest increase in inbreeding was

Predictive model for the heat capacity of ionic liquids using the mass connectivity index

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Valderrama, Jose O.; Martinez, Gwendolyn; Rojas, Roberto E.

2011-01-01

A simple and accurate model to predict the heat capacity of ionic liquids is presented. The proposed model considers variables readily available for ionic liquids and that have important effect on heat capacity, according to the literature information. Additionally a recently defined structural parameter known as mass connectivity index is incorporated into the model. A set of 602 heat capacity data for 146 ionic liquids have been used in the study. The results were compared with experimental data and with values reported by other available estimation methods. Results show that the new simple correlation gives low deviations and can be used with confidence in thermodynamic and engineering calculations.

A predictive model for pressure ulcer outcome: the Wound Healing Index.

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Horn, Susan D; Barrett, Ryan S; Fife, Caroline E; Thomson, Brett

2015-12-01

The purpose of this learning activity is to provide information regarding the creation of a risk-stratification system to predict the likelihood of the healing of body and heel pressure ulcers (PrUs). This continuing education activity is intended for physicians and nurses with an interest in skin and wound care. After participating in this educational activity, the participant should be better able to:1. Explain the need for a PrU risk stratification tool.2. Describe the purpose and methodology of the study.3. Delineate the results of the study and development of the Wound Healing Index. : To create a validated system to predict the healing likelihood of patients with body and heel pressure ulcers (PrUs), incorporating only patient- and wound-specific variables. The US Wound Registry data were examined retrospectively and assigned a clear outcome (healed, amputated, and so on). Significant variables were identified with bivariate analyses. Multivariable logistic regression models were created based on significant factors (P wound clinics in 24 states : A total of 7973 body PrUs and 2350 heel PrUs were eligible for analysis. Not applicable : Healed PrU MAIN RESULTS:: Because of missing data elements, the logistic regression development model included 6640 body PrUs, of which 4300 healed (64.8%), and the 10% validation sample included 709 PrUs, of which 477 healed (67.3%). For heel PrUs, the logistic regression development model included 1909 heel PrUs, of which 1240 healed (65.0%), and the 10% validation sample included 203 PrUs, of which 133 healed (65.5%). Variables significantly predicting healing were PrU size, PrU age, number of concurrent wounds of any etiology, PrU Stage III or IV, evidence of bioburden/infection, patient age, being nonambulatory, having renal transplant, paralysis, malnutrition, and/or patient hospitalization for any reason. Body and heel PrU Wound Healing Indices are comprehensive, user-friendly, and validated predictive models for

An Obesity Dietary Quality Index Predicts Abdominal Obesity in Women: Potential Opportunity for New Prevention and Treatment Paradigms

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Dolores M. Wolongevicz

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Background. Links between dietary quality and abdominal obesity are poorly understood. Objective. To examine the association between an obesity-specific dietary quality index and abdominal obesity risk in women. Methods. Over 12 years, we followed 288 Framingham Offspring/Spouse Study women, aged 30–69 years, without metabolic syndrome risk factors, cardiovascular disease, cancer, or diabetes at baseline. An 11-nutrient obesity-specific dietary quality index was derived using mean ranks of nutrient intakes from 3-day dietary records. Abdominal obesity (waist circumference >88 cm was assessed during follow-up. Results. Using multiple logistic regression, women with poorer dietary quality were more likely to develop abdominal obesity compared to those with higher dietary quality (OR 1.87; 95% CI, 1.01, 3.47; P for trend =.048 independent of age, physical activity, smoking, and menopausal status. Conclusions. An obesity-specific dietary quality index predicted abdominal obesity in women, suggesting targets for dietary quality assessment, intervention, and treatment to address abdominal adiposity.

Multiple Convergent Origins of Workerlessness and Inbreeding in the Socially Parasitic Ant Genus Myrmoxenus.

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Heinze, Jürgen; Buschinger, Alfred; Poettinger, Theo; Suefuji, Masaki

2015-01-01

The socially parasitic ant genus Myrmoxenus varies strongly in fundamental life history traits, such as queen-worker ratio, the timing of sexual production, and mating behavior. Myrmoxenus queens generally take over nests of Temnothorax ants, kill the resident queen by throttling, and force the workers to take care of the social parasite's brood. Young queens of M. ravouxi and other species produce large numbers of workers, which during "slave-raids" pillage host pupae from neighboring Temnothorax colonies to increase the workforce in their own nests. Other species, such as M. corsicus, have lost caste polyphenism and rear only male and female sexual offspring. Using sequences of the genes CO I/CO II and wingless we reconstruct the phylogeny of Myrmoxenus and document that the worker caste was lost convergently at least three times. Furthermore, mating in the nest and inbreeding obviously also evolved in parallel from ancestors whose sexuals presumably mated during nuptial flights. Myrmoxenus might thus provide a suitable model to investigate caste differentiation and the plasticity of mating behavior in Hymenoptera.

Multiple Convergent Origins of Workerlessness and Inbreeding in the Socially Parasitic Ant Genus Myrmoxenus.

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Jürgen Heinze

Full Text Available The socially parasitic ant genus Myrmoxenus varies strongly in fundamental life history traits, such as queen-worker ratio, the timing of sexual production, and mating behavior. Myrmoxenus queens generally take over nests of Temnothorax ants, kill the resident queen by throttling, and force the workers to take care of the social parasite's brood. Young queens of M. ravouxi and other species produce large numbers of workers, which during "slave-raids" pillage host pupae from neighboring Temnothorax colonies to increase the workforce in their own nests. Other species, such as M. corsicus, have lost caste polyphenism and rear only male and female sexual offspring. Using sequences of the genes CO I/CO II and wingless we reconstruct the phylogeny of Myrmoxenus and document that the worker caste was lost convergently at least three times. Furthermore, mating in the nest and inbreeding obviously also evolved in parallel from ancestors whose sexuals presumably mated during nuptial flights. Myrmoxenus might thus provide a suitable model to investigate caste differentiation and the plasticity of mating behavior in Hymenoptera.

Multivariate Local Polynomial Regression with Application to Shenzhen Component Index

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Liyun Su

2011-01-01

Full Text Available This study attempts to characterize and predict stock index series in Shenzhen stock market using the concepts of multivariate local polynomial regression. Based on nonlinearity and chaos of the stock index time series, multivariate local polynomial prediction methods and univariate local polynomial prediction method, all of which use the concept of phase space reconstruction according to Takens' Theorem, are considered. To fit the stock index series, the single series changes into bivariate series. To evaluate the results, the multivariate predictor for bivariate time series based on multivariate local polynomial model is compared with univariate predictor with the same Shenzhen stock index data. The numerical results obtained by Shenzhen component index show that the prediction mean squared error of the multivariate predictor is much smaller than the univariate one and is much better than the existed three methods. Even if the last half of the training data are used in the multivariate predictor, the prediction mean squared error is smaller than the univariate predictor. Multivariate local polynomial prediction model for nonsingle time series is a useful tool for stock market price prediction.

KPG Index versus OPG Measurements: A Comparison between 3D and 2D Methods in Predicting Treatment Duration and Difficulty Level for Patients with Impacted Maxillary Canines

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Domenico Dalessandri

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Aim. The aim of this study was to test the agreement between orthopantomography (OPG based 2D measurements and the KPG index, a new index based on 3D Cone Beam Computed Tomography (CBCT images, in predicting orthodontic treatment duration and difficulty level of impacted maxillary canines. Materials and Methods. OPG and CBCT images of 105 impacted canines were independently scored by three orthodontists at t0 and after 1 month (t1, using the KPG index and the following 2D methods: distance from cusp tip and occlusal plane, cusp tip position in relation to the lateral incisor, and canine inclination. Pearson’s coefficients were used to evaluate the degree of agreement and the χ2 with Yates correction test was used to assess the independence between them. Results. Inter- and intrarater reliability were higher with KPG compared to 2D methods. Pearson’s coefficients showed a statistically significant association between all the indexes, while the χ2 with Yates correction test resulted in a statistically significant rejection of independency only for one 2D index. Conclusions. 2D indexes for predicting impacted maxillary canines treatment duration and difficulty sometimes are discordant; a 3D index like the KPG index could be useful in solving these conflicts.

Predicting success of high-flow nasal cannula in pneumonia patients with hypoxemic respiratory failure: The utility of the ROX index.

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Roca, Oriol; Messika, Jonathan; Caralt, Berta; García-de-Acilu, Marina; Sztrymf, Benjamin; Ricard, Jean-Damien; Masclans, Joan R

2016-10-01

The purpose of the study is to describe early predictors and to develop a prediction tool that accurately identifies the need for mechanical ventilation (MV) in pneumonia patients with hypoxemic acute respiratory failure (ARF) treated with high-flow nasal cannula (HFNC). This is a 4-year prospective observational 2-center cohort study including patients with severe pneumonia treated with HFNC. High-flow nasal cannula failure was defined as need for MV. ROX index was defined as the ratio of pulse oximetry/fraction of inspired oxygen to respiratory rate. One hundred fifty-seven patients were included, of whom 44 (28.0%) eventually required MV (HFNC failure). After 12 hours of HFNC treatment, the ROX index demonstrated the best prediction accuracy (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.74 [95% confidence interval, 0.64-0.84]; Pfailure in whom therapy can be continued after 12 hours. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Outcomes of Selection in a Closed Herd on a Farm in Operation.

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Do, ChangHee; Yang, ChangBeom; Choi, JaeGwan; Kim, SiDong; Yang, BoSeok; Park, SooBong; Joo, YoungGuk; Lee, SeokHyun

2015-09-01

A herd of Berkshire pigs was established in 2003 and subjected to selection without introduction of any genetic resources until 2007. The complete pedigree, including 410 boars and 916 sows, as well as the records from 5,845 pigs and 822 litters were used to investigate the results obtained from the selections. The index of selection for breeding values included days to 90 kg (D90kg), backfat thickness (BF) and number of piglets born alive (NBA). The average inbreeding coefficients of pigs were found to be 0.023, 0.008, 0.013, 0.025, 0.026, and 0.005 from 2003 to 2007, respectively. The genetic gains per year were 12.1 g, -0.04 mm, -3.13 days, and 0.181 head for average daily gain (ADG), BF, D90kg, and NBA, respectively. Breeding values of ADG, BF and D90kg were not significantly correlated with inbreeding coefficients of individuals, except for NBA (-0.21). The response per additional 1% of inbreeding was 0.0278 head reduction in NBA. The annual increase of inbreeding was 0.23% and the annual decrease in NBA due to inbreeding was 0.0064 head. This magnitude could be disregarded when compared with the annual gain in NBA (0.181 head). These results suggest that inbreeding and inbreeding depression on ordinary farms can be controlled with a proper breeding scheme and that breeding programs are economical and safe relative to the risks associated with importation of pigs.

Systemic Immune-Inflammation Index and Circulating T-Cell Immune Index Predict Outcomes in High-Risk Acral Melanoma Patients Treated with High-Dose Interferon

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Jiayi Yu

2017-10-01

Full Text Available High-dose interferon alfa-2b (IFN-α-2b improves the survival of patients with high-risk melanoma. We aimed to identify baseline peripheral blood biomarkers to predict the outcome of acral melanoma patients treated with IFN-α-2b. Pretreatment baseline parameters and clinical data were assessed in 226 patients with acral melanoma. Relapse-free survival (RFS and overall survival (OS were assessed using the Kaplan-Meier method, and multivariate Cox regression analyses were applied after adjusting for stage, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH, and ulceration. Univariate analysis showed that neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio ≥2.35, platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio ≥129, systemic immune-inflammation index (SII ≥615 × 109/l, and elevated LDH were significantly associated with poor RFS and OS. The SII is calculated as follows: platelet count × neutrophil count/lymphocyte count. On multivariate analysis, the SII was associated with RFS [hazard ratio (HR=1.661, 95% confidence interval (CI: 1.066-2.586, P=.025] and OS (HR=2.071, 95% CI: 1.204-3.564, P=.009. Additionally, we developed a novel circulating T-cell immune index (CTII calculated as follows: cytotoxic T lymphocytes/(CD4+ regulatory T cells × CD8+ regulatory T cells. On univariate analysis, the CTII was associated with OS (HR=1.73, 95% CI: 1.01-2.94, P=.044. The SII and CTII might serve as prognostic indicators in acral melanoma patients treated with IFN-α-2b. The indexes are easily obtainable via routine tests in clinical practice.

Waist circumference as compared with body-mass index in predicting mortality from specific causes.

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Michael F Leitzmann

2011-04-01

Full Text Available Whether waist circumference provides clinically meaningful information not delivered by body-mass index regarding prediction of cause-specific death is uncertain.We prospectively examined waist circumference (WC and body-mass index (BMI in relation to cause-specific death in 225,712 U.S. women and men. Cox regression was used to estimate relative risks and 95% confidence intervals (CI. Statistical analyses were conducted using SAS version 9.1.During follow-up from 1996 through 2005, we documented 20,977 deaths. Increased WC consistently predicted risk of death due to any cause as well as major causes of death, including deaths from cancer, cardiovascular disease, and non-cancer/non-cardiovascular diseases, independent of BMI, age, sex, race/ethnicity, smoking status, and alcohol intake. When WC and BMI were mutually adjusted in a model, WC was related to 1.37 fold increased risk of death from any cancer and 1.82 fold increase risk of death from cardiovascular disease, comparing the highest versus lowest WC categories. Importantly, WC, but not BMI showed statistically significant positive associations with deaths from lung cancer and chronic respiratory disease. Participants in the highest versus lowest WC category had a relative risk of death from lung cancer of 1.77 (95% CI, 1.41 to 2.23 and of death from chronic respiratory disease of 2.77 (95% CI, 1.95 to 3.95. In contrast, subjects in the highest versus lowest BMI category had a relative risk of death from lung cancer of 0.94 (95% CI, 0.75 to 1.17 and of death from chronic respiratory disease of 1.18 (95% CI, 0.89 to 1.56.Increased abdominal fat measured by WC was related to a higher risk of deaths from major specific causes, including deaths from lung cancer and chronic respiratory disease, independent of BMI.

Radiosurgery for brain metastases: a score index for predicting prognosis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Weltman, Eduardo; Salvajoli, Joao Victor; Brandt, Reynaldo Andre; Morais Hanriot, Rodrigo de; Prisco, Flavio Eduardo; Cruz, Jose Carlos; Oliveira Borges, Sandra Regina de; Wajsbrot, Dalia Ballas

2000-01-01

Purpose: To analyze a prognostic score index for patients with brain metastases submitted to stereotactic radiosurgery (the Score Index for Radiosurgery in Brain Metastases [SIR]). Methods and Materials: Actuarial survival of 65 brain metastases patients treated with radiosurgery between July 1993 and December 1997 was retrospectively analyzed. Prognostic factors included age, Karnofsky performance status (KPS), extracranial disease status, number of brain lesions, largest brain lesion volume, lesions site, and receiving or not whole brain irradiation. The SIR was obtained through summation of the previously noted first five prognostic factors. Kaplan-Meier actuarial survival curves for all prognostic factors, SIR, and recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) (RTOG prognostic score) were calculated. Survival curves of subsets were compared by log-rank test. Application of the Cox model was utilized to identify any correlation between prognostic factors, prognostic scores, and survival. Results: Median overall survival from radiosurgery was 6.8 months. Utilizing univariate analysis, extracranial disease status, KPS, number of brain lesions, largest brain lesion volume, RPA, and SIR were significantly correlated with prognosis. Median survival for the RPA classes 1, 2, and 3 was 20.19 months, 7.75 months, and 3.38 months respectively (p = 0.0131). Median survival for patients, grouped under SIR from 1 to 3, 4 to 7, and 8 to 10, was 2.91 months, 7.00 months, and 31.38 months respectively (p = 0.0001). Using the Cox model, extracranial disease status and KPS demonstrated significant correlation with prognosis (p 0.0001 and 0.0004 respectively). Multivariate analysis also demonstrated significance for SIR and RPA when tested individually (p = 0.0001 and 0.0040 respectively). Applying the Cox Model to both SIR and RPA, only SIR reached independent significance (p = 0.0004). Conclusions: Systemic disease status, KPS, SIR, and RPA are reliable prognostic factors for patients

The Ultraviolet Index: a useful tool.

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Kinney, J P; Long, C S

2000-09-01

The Ultraviolet Index was developed in the United States in 1994 following successful use of ultraviolet (UV) alerts in other countries. This daily National Weather Service prediction is a calculation which integrates five data elements to yield the amount of UV radiation impacting the surface (1m2) at solar noon in 58 of the largest US population centers. This simple numeric prediction is then categorized by the Environmental Protection Agency into five "exposure levels" with protective actions recommended for each level. This information is disseminated through the media. Daily reminders seem to affect awareness and behavior in Canada, but US surveys indicate the need for better understanding through educational graphics. Comparing the UV Index to a precipitation prediction has merit in that it links a familiar daily prediction with implied appropriate protective measures. Graphics link the ideas that "when it rains it pours and when it shines it radiates." Beginning in schools, camps, and dermatology meetings, using the rain/shine analogy, a wider exposure to the Ultraviolet Index is proposed.

Comparison between frailty index of deficit accumulation and fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX) in prediction of risk of fractures.

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Li, Guowei; Thabane, Lehana; Papaioannou, Alexandra; Adachi, Jonathan D

2015-08-01

A frailty index (FI) of deficit accumulation could quantify and predict the risk of fractures based on the degree of frailty in the elderly. We aimed to compare the predictive powers between the FI and the fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX) in predicting risk of major osteoporotic fracture (hip, upper arm or shoulder, spine, or wrist) and hip fracture, using the data from the Global Longitudinal Study of Osteoporosis in Women (GLOW) 3-year Hamilton cohort. There were 3985 women included in the study, with the mean age of 69.4 years (standard deviation [SD] = 8.89). During the follow-up, there were 149 (3.98%) incident major osteoporotic fractures and 18 (0.48%) hip fractures reported. The FRAX and FI were significantly related to each other. Both FRAX and FI significantly predicted risk of major osteoporotic fracture, with a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.03 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.02-1.05) and 1.02 (95% CI: 1.01-1.04) for per-0.01 increment for the FRAX and FI respectively. The HRs were 1.37 (95% CI: 1.19-1.58) and 1.26 (95% CI: 1.12-1.42) for an increase of per-0.10 (approximately one SD) in the FRAX and FI respectively. Similar discriminative ability of the models was found: c-index = 0.62 for the FRAX and c-index = 0.61 for the FI. When cut-points were chosen to trichotomize participants into low-risk, medium-risk and high-risk groups, a significant increase in fracture risk was found in the high-risk group (HR = 2.04, 95% CI: 1.36-3.07) but not in the medium-risk group (HR = 1.23, 95% CI: 0.82-1.84) compared with the low-risk women for the FI, while for FRAX the medium-risk (HR = 2.00, 95% CI: 1.09-3.68) and high-risk groups (HR = 2.61, 95% CI: 1.48-4.58) predicted risk of major osteoporotic fracture significantly only when survival time exceeded 18months (550 days). Similar findings were observed for hip fracture and in sensitivity analyses. In conclusion, the FI is comparable with FRAX in the prediction of risk of future fractures, indicating that

A coupled melt-freeze temperature index approach in a one-layer model to predict bulk volumetric liquid water content dynamics in snow

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Avanzi, Francesco; Yamaguchi, Satoru; Hirashima, Hiroyuki; De Michele, Carlo

2016-04-01

Liquid water in snow rules runoff dynamics and wet snow avalanches release. Moreover, it affects snow viscosity and snow albedo. As a result, measuring and modeling liquid water dynamics in snow have important implications for many scientific applications. However, measurements are usually challenging, while modeling is difficult due to an overlap of mechanical, thermal and hydraulic processes. Here, we evaluate the use of a simple one-layer one-dimensional model to predict hourly time-series of bulk volumetric liquid water content in seasonal snow. The model considers both a simple temperature-index approach (melt only) and a coupled melt-freeze temperature-index approach that is able to reconstruct melt-freeze dynamics. Performance of this approach is evaluated at three sites in Japan. These sites (Nagaoka, Shinjo and Sapporo) present multi-year time-series of snow and meteorological data, vertical profiles of snow physical properties and snow melt lysimeters data. These data-sets are an interesting opportunity to test this application in different climatic conditions, as sites span a wide latitudinal range and are subjected to different snow conditions during the season. When melt-freeze dynamics are included in the model, results show that median absolute differences between observations and predictions of bulk volumetric liquid water content are consistently lower than 1 vol%. Moreover, the model is able to predict an observed dry condition of the snowpack in 80% of observed cases at a non-calibration site, where parameters from calibration sites are transferred. Overall, the analysis show that a coupled melt-freeze temperature-index approach may be a valid solution to predict average wetness conditions of a snow cover at local scale.

Value of tissue Doppler-derived Tei index and two-dimensional speckle tracking imaging derived longitudinal strain on predicting outcome of patients with light-chain cardiac amyloidosis.

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Liu, Dan; Hu, Kai; Herrmann, Sebastian; Cikes, Maja; Ertl, Georg; Weidemann, Frank; Störk, Stefan; Nordbeck, Peter

2017-06-01

Prognosis of patients with light-chain cardiac amyloidosis (AL-CA) is poor. Speckle tracking imaging (STI) derived longitudinal deformation parameters and Doppler-derived left ventricular (LV) Tei index are valuable predictors of outcome in patients with AL-CA. We estimated the prognostic utility of Tei index and deformation parameters in 58 comprehensively phenotyped patients with AL-CA after a median follow-up of 365 days (quartiles 121, 365 days). The primary end point was all-cause mortality. 19 (33%) patients died during follow-up. Tei index (0.89 ± 0.29 vs. 0.61 ± 0.16, p < 0.001) and E to global early diastolic strain rate ratio (E/GLSR dias ) were higher while global longitudinal systolic strain (GLS sys ) was lower in non-survivors than in survivors (all p < 0.05). Tei index, NYHA functional class, GLS sys and E/GLSR dias were independent predictors of all-cause mortality risk, and Tei index ≥0.9 (HR 7.01, 95% CI 2.43-20.21, p < 0.001) was the best predictor of poor outcome. Combining Tei index and GLS sys yielded the best results on predicting death within 1 year (100% with Tei index ≥0.9 and GLS sys ≤13%) or survival (95% with Tei index ≤0.9 and GLS sys ≥13%). We conclude that 1-year mortality risk in AL-CA patients can be reliably predicted using Tei index or deformation parameters, with combined analysis offering best performance.

Preoperative Prediction of Ki-67 Labeling Index By Three-dimensional CT Image Parameters for Differential Diagnosis Of Ground-Glass Opacity (GGO.

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Mingzheng Peng

Full Text Available The aim of this study was to predict Ki-67 labeling index (LI preoperatively by three-dimensional (3D CT image parameters for pathologic assessment of GGO nodules. Diameter, total volume (TV, the maximum CT number (MAX, average CT number (AVG and standard deviation of CT number within the whole GGO nodule (STD were measured by 3D CT workstation. By detection of immunohistochemistry and Image Software Pro Plus 6.0, different Ki-67 LI were measured and statistically analyzed among preinvasive adenocarcinoma (PIA, minimally invasive adenocarcinoma (MIA and invasive adenocarcinoma (IAC. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC curve, Spearman correlation analysis and multiple linear regression analysis with cross-validation were performed to further research a quantitative correlation between Ki-67 labeling index and radiological parameters. Diameter, TV, MAX, AVG and STD increased along with PIA, MIA and IAC significantly and consecutively. In the multiple linear regression model by a stepwise way, we obtained an equation: prediction of Ki-67 LI=0.022*STD+0.001* TV+2.137 (R=0.595, R's square=0.354, p<0.001, which can predict Ki-67 LI as a proliferative marker preoperatively. Diameter, TV, MAX, AVG and STD could discriminate pathologic categories of GGO nodules significantly. Ki-67 LI of early lung adenocarcinoma presenting GGO can be predicted by radiologic parameters based on 3D CT for differential diagnosis.

Models for the prediction of the cetane index of biofuels obtained from different vegetable oils using their fatty acid composition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sanchez Borroto, Yisel; Piloto Rodriguez, Ramon; Goyos Perez, Leonardo

2011-01-01

The objective of the present work is to obtain a physical-mathematical model that establishes a relationship between the cetane index of biofuels obtained from different vegetable oils and its composition of essential fatty acid. This model is based on experimental data obtained by the authors of the present work and an experimental data reported by different extracted authors of indexed databases. The adjustment of the coefficients of the model is based on the obtaining of residual minima in the capacity of prediction of the model. Starting from these results it is established a very useful tool for the determination of such an important parameter for the fuel diesel as it is the cetane index obtained from an analysis of chemical composition and not obtained from tests in engines banks, to save time and economic resources. (author)

Prediction of Ryznar Stability Index for Treated Water of WTPs Located on Al-Karakh Side of Baghdad City using Artificial Neural Network (ANN Technique

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Awatif Soaded Alsaqqar

2016-06-01

Full Text Available In this research an Artificial Neural Network (ANN technique was applied for the prediction of Ryznar Index (RI of the flowing water from WTPs in Al-Karakh side (left side in Baghdad city for year 2013. Three models (ANN1, ANN2 and ANN3 have been developed and tested using data from Baghdad Mayoralty (Amanat Baghdad including drinking water quality for the period 2004 to 2013. The results indicate that it is quite possible to use an artificial neural networks in predicting the stability index (RI with a good degree of accuracy. Where ANN 2 model could be used to predict RI for the effluents from Al-Karakh, Al-Qadisiya and Al-Karama WTPs as the highest correlation coefficient were obtained 92.4, 82.9 and 79.1% respectively. For Al-Dora WTP, ANN 3 model could be used as R was 92.8%.

Effects of Body Mass Index on Lung Function Index of Chinese Population

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Guo, Qiao; Ye, Jun; Yang, Jian; Zhu, Changan; Sheng, Lei; Zhang, Yongliang

2018-01-01

To study the effect of body mass index (BMI) on lung function indexes in Chinese population. A cross-sectional study was performed on 10, 592 participants. The linear relationship between lung function and BMI was evaluated by multivariate linear regression analysis, and the correlation between BMI and lung function was assessed by Pearson correlation analysis. Correlation analysis showed that BMI was positively related with the decreasing of forced vital capacity (FVC), forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) and FEV1/FVC (P <0.05), the increasing of FVC% predicted value (FVC%pre) and FEV1% predicted value (FEV1%pre). These suggested that Chinese people can restrain the decline of lung function to prevent the occurrence and development of COPD by the control of BMI.

Gluten-free snacks using plantain-chickpea and maize blend: chemical composition, starch digestibility, and predicted glycemic index.

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Flores-Silva, Pamela C; Rodriguez-Ambriz, Sandra L; Bello-Pérez, Luis A

2015-05-01

An increase in celiac consumers has caused an increasing interest to develop good quality gluten-free food products with high nutritional value. Snack foods are consumed worldwide and have become a normal part of the eating habits of the celiac population making them a target to improve their nutritive value. Extrusion and deep-frying of unripe plantain, chickpea, and maize flours blends produced gluten-free snacks with high dietary fiber contents (13.7-18.2 g/100 g) and low predicted glycemic index (28 to 35). The gluten-free snacks presented lower fat content (12.7 to 13.6 g/100 g) than those reported in similar commercial snacks. The snack with the highest unripe plantain flour showed higher slowly digestible starch (11.6 and 13.4 g/100 g) than its counterpart with the highest chickpea flour level (6 g/100 g). The overall acceptability of the gluten-free snacks was similar to that chili-flavored commercial snack. It was possible to develop gluten-free snacks with high dietary fiber content and low predicted glycemic index with the blend of the 3 flours, and these gluten-free snacks may also be useful as an alternative to reduce excess weight and obesity problems in the general population and celiac community. © 2015 Institute of Food Technologists®

Seasonal predictions of Fire Weather Index: Paving the way for their operational applicability in Mediterranean Europe

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Joaquín Bedia

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Managers of wildfire-prone landscapes in the Euro-Mediterranean region would greatly benefit from fire weather predictions a few months in advance, and particularly from the reliable prediction of extreme fire seasons. However, in some cases model biases prevent from a direct application of these predictions in an operational context. Fire risk management requires precise knowledge of the likely consequences of climate on fire risk, and the interest for decision-makers is focused on multi-variable fire danger indices, calculated through the combination of different model output variables. In this paper we consider whether the skill in dynamical seasonal predictions of one of the most widely applied of such indices (the Canadian Fire Weather Index, FWI is sufficient to inform management decisions, and we examine various methodological aspects regarding the calibration of model outputs prior to its verification and operational applicability. We find that there is significant skill in predicting above average summer FWI in parts of SE Europe at 1 month lead time, but poor skill elsewhere. These results are largely linked to the predictability of relative humidity. Moreover, practical recommendations are given for the use of empirical quantile mapping in probabilistic seasonal FWI forecasts. Furthermore, we show how researchers, fire managers and other stakeholders can take advantage of a new open-source climate service in order to undertake all the necessary steps for data download, post-processing, analysis and verification in a straightforward and fully reproducible manner. Keywords: Climate impact indicators, Quantile mapping, Bias correction, System 4, Fire danger, Seasonal forecasting

Flood Risk Index Assessment in Johor River Basin

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ahmad Shakir Mohd Saudi; Hafizan Juahir; Azman Azid; Fazureen Azaman; Ahmad Shakir Mohd Saudi

2015-01-01

This study is focusing on constructing the flood risk index in the Johor river basin. The application of statistical methods such as factor analysis (FA), statistical process control (SPC) and artificial neural network (ANN) had revealed the most efficient flood risk index. The result in FA was water level has correlation coefficient of 0.738 and the most practicable variable to be used for the warning alert system. The upper control limits (UCL) for the water level in the river basin Johor is 4.423 m and the risk index for the water level has been set by this method consisting of 0-100.The accuracy of prediction has been evaluated by using ANN and the accuracy of the test result was R"2 = 0.96408 with RMSE= 2.5736. The future prediction for UCL in Johor river basin has been predicted and the value was 3.75 m. This model can shows the current and future prediction for flood risk index in the Johor river basin and can help local authorities for flood control and prevention of the state of Johor. (author)

Nuclear genetic diversity in human lice (Pediculus humanus reveals continental differences and high inbreeding among worldwide populations.

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Marina S Ascunce

Full Text Available Understanding the evolution of parasites is important to both basic and applied evolutionary biology. Knowledge of the genetic structure of parasite populations is critical for our ability to predict how an infection can spread through a host population and for the design of effective control methods. However, very little is known about the genetic structure of most human parasites, including the human louse (Pediculus humanus. This species is composed of two ecotypes: the head louse (Pediculus humanus capitis De Geer, and the clothing (body louse (Pediculus humanus humanus Linnaeus. Hundreds of millions of head louse infestations affect children every year, and this number is on the rise, in part because of increased resistance to insecticides. Clothing lice affect mostly homeless and refugee-camp populations and although they are less prevalent than head lice, the medical consequences are more severe because they vector deadly bacterial pathogens. In this study we present the first assessment of the genetic structure of human louse populations by analyzing the nuclear genetic variation at 15 newly developed microsatellite loci in 93 human lice from 11 sites in four world regions. Both ecotypes showed heterozygote deficits relative to Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium and high inbreeding values, an expected pattern given their parasitic life history. Bayesian clustering analyses assigned lice to four distinct genetic clusters that were geographically structured. The low levels of gene flow among louse populations suggested that the evolution of insecticide resistance in lice would most likely be affected by local selection pressures, underscoring the importance of tailoring control strategies to population-specific genetic makeup and evolutionary history. Our panel of microsatellite markers provides powerful data to investigate not only ecological and evolutionary processes in lice, but also those in their human hosts because of the long

Proliferation index: a continuous model to predict prognosis in patients with tumours of the Ewing's sarcoma family.

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Samantha Brownhill

Full Text Available The prognostic value of proliferation index (PI and apoptotic index (AI, caspase-8, -9 and -10 expression have been investigated in primary Ewing's sarcoma family of tumours (ESFT. Proliferating cells, detected by immunohistochemistry for Ki-67, were identified in 91% (91/100 of tumours with a median PI of 14 (range 0-87. Apoptotic cells, identified using the TUNEL assay, were detected in 96% (76/79 of ESFT; the median AI was 3 (range 0-33. Caspase-8 protein expression was negative (0 in 14% (11/79, low (1 in 33% (26/79, medium (2 in 38% (30/79 and high (3 in 15% (12/79 of tumours, caspase-9 expression was low (1 in 66% (39/59 and high (3 in 34% (20/59, and caspase-10 protein was low (1 in 37% (23/62 and negative (0 in 63% (39/62 of primary ESFT. There was no apparent relationship between caspase-8, -9 and -10 expression, PI and AI. PI was predictive of relapse-free survival (RFS; p = 0.011 and overall survival (OS; p = <0.001 in a continuous model, whereas AI did not predict outcome. Patients with tumours expressing low levels of caspase-9 protein had a trend towards a worse RFS than patients with tumours expressing higher levels of caspase-9 protein (p = 0.054, log rank test, although expression of caspases-8, -9 and/or -10 did not significantly predict RFS or OS. In a multivariate analysis model that included tumour site, tumour volume, the presence of metastatic disease at diagnosis, PI and AI, PI independently predicts OS (p = 0.003. Consistent with previous publications, patients with pelvic tumours had a significantly worse OS than patients with tumours at other sites (p = 0.028; patients with a pelvic tumour and a PI≥20 had a 6 fold-increased risk of death. These studies advocate the evaluation of PI in a risk model of outcome for patients with ESFT.

Age-adjusted Charlson Comorbidity Index predicts prognosis of laryngopharyngeal cancer treated with radiation therapy.

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Takemura, Kazuya; Takenaka, Yukinori; Ashida, Naoki; Shimizu, Kotaro; Oya, Ryohei; Kitamura, Takahiro; Yamamoto, Yoshifumi; Uno, Atsuhiko

2017-12-01

To examine the ability of comorbidity indices to predict the prognosis of laryngopharyngeal cancer and their association with treatment modalities. This retrospective study included 198 patients with laryngeal, hypopharyngeal, and oropharyngeal cancers. The effect of comorbidity indices on overall survival between surgery and (chemo)-radiation therapy ((C)RT) groups was analyzed. The cumulative incidence rates for cancer mortality and other mortalities according to the age-adjusted Charlson Comorbidity Index (ACCI) and Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) were compared. Univariate survival analyses showed a significant association between the ACCI and overall survival in the (C)RT group, but not in the surgery group. The association between the CCI and overall survival was not significant in either group. In multivariate analyses, a high ACCI score was an independent prognostic factor in the (C)RT group (HR 2.89, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.28-6.49), but not in the surgery group (HR 1.39, 95%CI 0.27-5.43). The higher ACCI group had increased mortality from other causes compared with the lower ACCI group (5-year cumulative incidence, 8.5% and 17.8%, respectively, p = .003). The ACCI was a better prognostic factor than the CCI. Surgery may be more beneficial than radiation for patients with a high ACCI.

Wine grape cultivar influence on the performance of models that predict the lower threshold canopy temperature of a water stress index

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The calculation of a thermal based Crop Water Stress Index (CWSI) requires an estimate of canopy temperature under non-water stressed conditions. The objective of this study was to assess the influence of different wine grape cultivars on the performance of models that predict canopy temperature non...

PR-Index: Using the h-Index and PageRank for Determining True Impact.

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Gao, Chao; Wang, Zhen; Li, Xianghua; Zhang, Zili; Zeng, Wei

2016-01-01

Several technical indicators have been proposed to assess the impact of authors and institutions. Here, we combine the h-index and the PageRank algorithm to do away with some of the individual limitations of these two indices. Most importantly, we aim to take into account value differences between citations-evaluating the citation sources by defining the h-index using the PageRank score rather than with citations. The resulting PR-index is then constructed by evaluating source popularity as well as the source publication authority. Extensive tests on available collections data (i.e., Microsoft Academic Search and benchmarks on the SIGKDD innovation award) show that the PR-index provides a more balanced impact measure than many existing indices. Due to its simplicity and similarity to the popular h-index, the PR-index may thus become a welcome addition to the technical indices already in use. Moreover, growth dynamics prior to the SIGKDD innovation award indicate that the PR-index might have notable predictive power.

Unexpected Relationships and Inbreeding in HapMap Phase III Populations

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Stevens, Eric L.; Baugher, Joseph D.; Shirley, Matthew D.; Frelin, Laurence P.; Pevsner, Jonathan

2012-01-01

Correct annotation of the genetic relationships between samples is essential for population genomic studies, which could be biased by errors or omissions. To this end, we used identity-by-state (IBS) and identity-by-descent (IBD) methods to assess genetic relatedness of individuals within HapMap phase III data. We analyzed data from 1,397 individuals across 11 ethnic populations. Our results support previous studies (Pemberton et al., 2010; Kyriazopoulou-Panagiotopoulou et al., 2011) assessing unknown relatedness present within this population. Additionally, we present evidence for 1,657 novel pairwise relationships across 9 populations. Surprisingly, significant Cotterman's coefficients of relatedness K1 (IBD1) values were detected between pairs of known parents. Furthermore, significant K2 (IBD2) values were detected in 32 previously annotated parent-child relationships. Consistent with a hypothesis of inbreeding, regions of homozygosity (ROH) were identified in the offspring of related parents, of which a subset overlapped those reported in previous studies (Gibson et al. 2010; Johnson et al. 2011). In total, we inferred 28 inbred individuals with ROH that overlapped areas of relatedness between the parents and/or IBD2 sharing at a different genomic locus between a child and a parent. Finally, 8 previously annotated parent-child relationships had unexpected K0 (IBD0) values (resulting from a chromosomal abnormality or genotype error), and 10 previously annotated second-degree relationships along with 38 other novel pairwise relationships had unexpected IBD2 (indicating two separate paths of recent ancestry). These newly described types of relatedness may impact the outcome of previous studies and should inform the design of future studies relying on the HapMap Phase III resource. PMID:23185369

Prediction of County-Level Corn Yields Using an Energy-Crop Growth Index.

Science.gov (United States)

Andresen, Jeffrey A.; Dale, Robert F.; Fletcher, Jerald J.; Preckel, Paul V.

1989-01-01

Weather conditions significantly affect corn yields. while weather remains as the major uncontrolled variable in crop production, an understanding of the influence of weather on yields can aid in early and accurate assessment of the impact of weather and climate on crop yields and allow for timely agricultural extension advisories to help reduce farm management costs and improve marketing, decisions. Based on data for four representative countries in Indiana from 1960 to 1984 (excluding 1970 because of the disastrous southern corn leaf blight), a model was developed to estimate corn (Zea mays L.) yields as a function of several composite soil-crop-weather variables and a technology-trend marker, applied nitrogen fertilizer (N). The model was tested by predicting corn yields for 15 other counties. A daily energy-crop growth (ECG) variable in which different weights were used for the three crop-weather variables which make up the daily ECG-solar radiation intercepted by the canopy, a temperature function, and the ratio of actual to potential evapotranspiration-performed better than when the ECG components were weighted equally. The summation of the weighted daily ECG over a relatively short period (36 days spanning silk) was found to provide the best index for predicting county average corn yield. Numerical estimation results indicate that the ratio of actual to potential evapotranspiration (ET/PET) is much more important than the other two ECG factors in estimating county average corn yield in Indiana.

Efficacy of NETDC (New England Trophoblastic Disease Center prognostic index score to predict gestational trophoblastic tumor from hydatidiform mole

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Khrismawan Khrismawan

2004-03-01

Full Text Available A prospective longitudinal analytic study assessing the efficacy of NETDC (New England Trophoblastic Disease Center prognostic index score in predicting malignancy after hydatidiform mole had been performed. Of the parameter evaluated; age of patients, type of hydatidiform mole, uterine enlargement, serum hCG level, lutein cyst, and presence of complicating factors were significant risk factors for malignancy after hydatidiform mole were evacuated (p<0.032. The study were done on 50 women diagnosed with hydatidiform mole with 1 year observation (January 2001-December 2002 at the Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Mohammad Hoesin Hospital, Palembang. The results showed that the NETDC prognostic index score predicted malignancy in 50% of high risk group and 10% in low risk group (p<0.05. This showed a higher number than that found by the WHO (19%-30%. The risk for incidence of  malignancy after hydatidiform mole in the high risk group is 9.0 times higher compared to that of the low risk group (CI: 1.769-45.786. (Med J Indones 2004; 13: 40-6 Keywords: New England Trophoblastic Disease Center (NETDC, gestational trophoblastic tumor, hydatidiform mole, high and low risk

An application of plot-scale NDVI in predicting carbon dioxide exchange and leaf area index in heterogeneous subarctic tundra

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dagg, J.; Lafleur, P.

2010-07-01

This paper reported on a study that examined the flow of carbon into and out of tundra ecosystems. It is necessary to accurately predict carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) exchange in the Tundra because of the impacts of climate change on carbon stored in permafrost. Understanding the relationships between the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and vegetation and CO{sub 2} exchange may explain how small-scale variation in vegetation community extends to remotely sensed estimates of landscape characteristics. In this study, CO{sub 2} fluxes were measured with a portable chamber in a range of Tundra vegetation communities. Biomass and leaf area were measured with destructive harvest, and NDVI was obtained using a hand-held infrared camera. There was a weak correlation between NDVI and leaf area index in some vegetation communities, but a significant correlation between NDVI and biomass, including mosses. NDVI was found to be strongly related to photosynthetic activity and net CO{sub 2} uptake in all vegetation groups. However, NDVI related to ecosystem respiration only in wet sedge. It was concluded that at plot scale, the ability of NDVI to predict ecosystem properties and CO{sub 2} exchange in heterogeneous Tundra vegetation is variable.

An application of plot-scale NDVI in predicting carbon dioxide exchange and leaf area index in heterogeneous subarctic tundra

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dagg, J.; Lafleur, P.

2010-01-01

This paper reported on a study that examined the flow of carbon into and out of tundra ecosystems. It is necessary to accurately predict carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) exchange in the Tundra because of the impacts of climate change on carbon stored in permafrost. Understanding the relationships between the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and vegetation and CO 2 exchange may explain how small-scale variation in vegetation community extends to remotely sensed estimates of landscape characteristics. In this study, CO 2 fluxes were measured with a portable chamber in a range of Tundra vegetation communities. Biomass and leaf area were measured with destructive harvest, and NDVI was obtained using a hand-held infrared camera. There was a weak correlation between NDVI and leaf area index in some vegetation communities, but a significant correlation between NDVI and biomass, including mosses. NDVI was found to be strongly related to photosynthetic activity and net CO 2 uptake in all vegetation groups. However, NDVI related to ecosystem respiration only in wet sedge. It was concluded that at plot scale, the ability of NDVI to predict ecosystem properties and CO 2 exchange in heterogeneous Tundra vegetation is variable.

The Outcomes of Selection in a Closed Herd on a Farm in Operation

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ChangHee Do

2015-09-01

Full Text Available A herd of Berkshire pigs was established in 2003 and subjected to selection without introduction of any genetic resources until 2007. The complete pedigree, including 410 boars and 916 sows, as well as the records from 5,845 pigs and 822 litters were used to investigate the results obtained from the selections. The index of selection for breeding values included days to 90 kg (D90kg, backfat thickness (BF and number of piglets born alive (NBA. The average inbreeding coefficients of pigs were found to be 0.023, 0.008, 0.013, 0.025, 0.026, and 0.005 from 2003 to 2007, respectively. The genetic gains per year were 12.1 g, −0.04 mm, −3.13 days, and 0.181 head for average daily gain (ADG, BF, D90kg, and NBA, respectively. Breeding values of ADG, BF and D90kg were not significantly correlated with inbreeding coefficients of individuals, except for NBA (−0.21. The response per additional 1% of inbreeding was 0.0278 head reduction in NBA. The annual increase of inbreeding was 0.23% and the annual decrease in NBA due to inbreeding was 0.0064 head. This magnitude could be disregarded when compared with the annual gain in NBA (0.181 head. These results suggest that inbreeding and inbreeding depression on ordinary farms can be controlled with a proper breeding scheme and that breeding programs are economical and safe relative to the risks associated with importation of pigs.

In vitro starch digestibility and predicted glycemic index of microwaved and conventionally baked pound cake.

Science.gov (United States)

Sánchez-Pardo, María Elena; Ortiz-Moreno, Alicia; Mora-Escobedo, Rosalva; Necoechea-Mondragón, Hugo

2007-09-01

The present study compares the effect of baking process (microwave vs conventional oven) on starch bioavailability in fresh pound cake crumbs and in crumbs from pound cake stored for 8 days. Proximal chemical analysis, resistant starch (RS), retrograded starch (RS3) and starch hydrolysis index (HI) were evaluated. The empirical formula suggested by Granfeldt was used to determine the predicted glycemic index (pGI). Pound cake, one of Mexico's major bread products, was selected for analysis because the quality defects often associated with microwave baking might be reduced with the use of high-fat, high-moisture, batted dough. Differences in product moisture, RS and RS3 were observed in fresh microwave-baked and conventionally baked pound cake. RS3 increased significantly in conventionally baked products stored for 8 days at room temperature, whereas no significantly changes in RS3 were observed in the microwaved product. HI values for freshly baked and stored microwaved product were 59 and 62%, respectively (P > 0.05), whereas the HI value for the conventionally baked product decreased significantly after 8 days of storage. A pound cake with the desired HI and GI characteristics might be obtained by adjusting the microwave baking process.

Preoperative Aspartate Aminotransferase-to-Platelet Ratio Index Predicts Perioperative Liver-Related Complications Following Liver Resection for Colorectal Cancer Metastases

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Amptoulach, S.; Gross, G.; Sturesson, C.

2017-01-01

-related). In multivariate regression analysis, the aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index was independently associated with liver-related complications (odds ratio: 1.149, p = 0.003) and perioperative liver failure (odds ratio: 1.155, p = 0.012). The latter was also true in the subcohort of patients......Background and Aims: There are limited data on the potential role of preoperative non-invasive markers, specifically the aspartate-to-alanine aminotransferase ratio and the aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index, in predicting perioperative liver-related complications after hepatectomy...... collected from medical records. The nontumorous liver parenchyma in the surgical specimens of 31 patients was re-evaluated. Results: Overall, 215 patients were included. In total, 40% underwent neoadjuvant chemotherapy and 47% major resection, while 47% had perioperative complications (6% liver...

Predicting volatility and correlations with Financial Conditions Indexes

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Opschoor, A.; van Dijk, D.; van der Wel, M.

2014-01-01

We model the impact of financial conditions on asset market volatilities and correlations. We extend the Spline-GARCH model for volatility and DCC model for correlation to allow for inclusion of indexes that measure financial conditions. In our empirical application we consider daily stock returns

Predicting Volatility and Correlations with Financial Conditions Indexes

NARCIS (Netherlands)

A. Opschoor (Anne); D.J.C. van Dijk (Dick); M. van der Wel (Michel)

2014-01-01

textabstractWe model the impact of financial conditions on asset market volatilities and correlations. We extend the Spline-GARCH model for volatility and DCC model for correlation to allow for inclusion of indexes that measure financial conditions. In our empirical application we consider daily

Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Monthly Pacific North American Teleconnection Pattern Index

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Monthly tabulated index of the Pacific/ North American teleconnection pattern. The data spans the period 1950 to present. The index is derived from a rotated...

Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Monthly North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) teleconnection index

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Monthly tabulated index of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) teleconnection pattern. The data spans the period 1950 to present. The index is derived from a...

Climate Prediction Center - Monitoring & Data Index

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Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Prediction Center Site Map News Oceanic & Atmospheric Monitoring and Data Monitoring Weather & Climate in Realtime Climate Diagnostics Bulletin Preliminary Climate Diagnostics Bulletin Figures Monthly Atmospheric & Sea Surface

Climate Prediction Center (CPC) East Atlantic/ Western Russia Teleconnection Pattern Index

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Monthly tabulated index of the East Atlantic/ Western Russia teleconnection pattern. The data spans the period 1950 to present. The index is derived from a rotated...

Climate Prediction Center (CPC) East Pacific/ North Pacific Teleconnection Pattern Index

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Monthly tabulated index of the East Pacific/ North Pacific teleconnection pattern. The data spans the period 1950 to present. The index is derived from a rotated...

Climate Prediction Center - Outlooks: Current UV Index Forecast Map

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Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Prediction Center Home Site Map News Service NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction Climate Prediction Center 5830 University Research Court College Park, Maryland 20740 Page Author: Climate Prediction Center Internet Team Disclaimer

Validation and simplification of Fournier's gangrene severity index.

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Tsung-Yen; Ou, Chien-Hui; Tzai, Tzong-Shin; Tong, Yat-Ching; Chang, Chien-Chen; Cheng, Hong-Lin; Yang, Wen-Horng; Lin, Yung-Ming

2014-07-01

To validate the predictive value of Fournier's Gangrene Severity Index in patients with Fournier gangrene and to facilitate patient mortality risk-stratification by simplifying the Fournier's Gangrene Severity Index. From January 1989 to December 2011, 85 male patients with clinically-documented Fournier's gangrene undergoing intensive treatment and with complete medical records were recruited. The demographic information and nine parameters of Fournier's Gangrene Severity Index were compared between survivors and non-survivors. The parameters that showed a significant difference between the two groups were selected to generate a simplified scoring index. Of the 85 patients recruited, 16 patients died of the disease with mortality rate of 18.8%. The Fournier's Gangrene Severity Index score at initial diagnosis was significantly higher in non-survivors than in survivors. Of the nine parameters of Fournier's Gangrene Severity Index, the scores of serum creatinine level, hematocrit level and serum potassium level were significantly different between the two groups. However, the mean body temperatures, heart rate, respiration rate, white blood cell count, serum sodium and bicarbonate levels were non-significantly different. Of the 12 patients with chronic kidney disease or end-stage renal disease, 10 died of severe sepsis. A simplified scoring index including parameters of creatinine, hematocrit and potassium was generated, which provided sensitivity and specificity of 87% and 77% in predicting patient mortality, respectively. The predictive values of this simplified Fournier's Gangrene Severity Index were shown to be non-inferior to Fournier's Gangrene Severity Index in our patients. The simplified Fournier's Gangrene Severity Index is easy to use at initial diagnosis, and offers a way to compare outcomes in different clinical populations. © 2014 The Japanese Urological Association.

Slow and stopped light in active gain composite materials of metal nanoparticles. Ultralarge group index-bandwidth product predicted

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Kwang-Hyon; Choe, Song-Hyok [Institute of Lasers, State Academy of Sciences, Unjong District, Pyongyang (Korea, Democratic People' s Republic of)

2017-08-15

Chip-compatible slow light devices with large group index-bandwidth products and low losses are of great interest in the community of modern photonics. In this work, active gain materials containing metal nanoparticles are proposed as the slow and stopped light materials. Gain-assisted high field enhancement in metal nanoparticles and the resultant strong dispersion lead to such phenomena. From the Maxwell-Garnett model, it is revealed that the metal nanocomposite exhibits the infinitely large group index when the gain of the host medium and the filling factor of metal nanoparticles satisfy a critical condition. For the gain of the host above the critical value, one can observe slowing down effect with amplification of light pulses. Significantly large group index-bandwidth products, which vary from a few to several thousand or even infinity depending on the gain value of the host medium, have been numerically predicted in active silica glasses containing spheroidal metal nanoparticles, as examples. The proposed scheme inherently provides the widely varying operating spectral range by changing the aspect ratio of metal nanoparticles and chip-compatibility with low cost. (copyright 2017 by WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH and Co. KGaA, Weinheim)

Novel non-invasive biological predictive index for liver fibrosis in hepatitis C virus genotype 4 patients

Science.gov (United States)

Khattab, Mahmoud; Sakr, Mohamed Amin; Fattah, Mohamed Abdel; Mousa, Youssef; Soliman, Elwy; Breedy, Ashraf; Fathi, Mona; Gaber, Salwa; Altaweil, Ahmed; Osman, Ashraf; Hassouna, Ahmed; Motawea, Ibrahim

2016-01-01

AIM To investigate the diagnostic ability of a non-invasive biological marker to predict liver fibrosis in hepatitis C genotype 4 patients with high accuracy. METHODS A cohort of 332 patients infected with hepatitis C genotype 4 was included in this cross-sectional study. Fasting plasma glucose, insulin, C-peptide, and angiotensin-converting enzyme serum levels were measured. Insulin resistance was mathematically calculated using the homeostasis model of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR). RESULTS Fibrosis stages were distributed based on Metavir score as follows: F0 = 43, F1 = 136, F2 = 64, F3 = 45 and F4 = 44. Statistical analysis relied upon reclassification of fibrosis stages into mild fibrosis (F0-F) = 179, moderate fibrosis (F2) = 64, and advanced fibrosis (F3-F4) = 89. Univariate analysis indicated that age, log aspartate amino transaminase, log HOMA-IR and log platelet count were independent predictors of liver fibrosis stage (P < 0.0001). A stepwise multivariate discriminant functional analysis was used to drive a discriminative model for liver fibrosis. Our index used cut-off values of ≥ 0.86 and ≤ -0.31 to diagnose advanced and mild fibrosis, respectively, with receiving operating characteristics of 0.91 and 0.88, respectively. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and positive likelihood ratio were: 73%, 91%, 75%, 90% and 8.0 respectively for advanced fibrosis, and 67%, 88%, 84%, 70% and 4.9, respectively, for mild fibrosis. CONCLUSION Our predictive model is easily available and reproducible, and predicted liver fibrosis with acceptable accuracy. PMID:27917265

Novel non-invasive biological predictive index for liver fibrosis in hepatitis C virus genotype 4 patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Khattab, Mahmoud; Sakr, Mohamed Amin; Fattah, Mohamed Abdel; Mousa, Youssef; Soliman, Elwy; Breedy, Ashraf; Fathi, Mona; Gaber, Salwa; Altaweil, Ahmed; Osman, Ashraf; Hassouna, Ahmed; Motawea, Ibrahim

2016-11-18

To investigate the diagnostic ability of a non-invasive biological marker to predict liver fibrosis in hepatitis C genotype 4 patients with high accuracy. A cohort of 332 patients infected with hepatitis C genotype 4 was included in this cross-sectional study. Fasting plasma glucose, insulin, C-peptide, and angiotensin-converting enzyme serum levels were measured. Insulin resistance was mathematically calculated using the homeostasis model of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR). Fibrosis stages were distributed based on Metavir score as follows: F0 = 43, F1 = 136, F2 = 64, F3 = 45 and F4 = 44. Statistical analysis relied upon reclassification of fibrosis stages into mild fibrosis (F0-F) = 179, moderate fibrosis (F2) = 64, and advanced fibrosis (F3-F4) = 89. Univariate analysis indicated that age, log aspartate amino transaminase, log HOMA-IR and log platelet count were independent predictors of liver fibrosis stage ( P < 0.0001). A stepwise multivariate discriminant functional analysis was used to drive a discriminative model for liver fibrosis. Our index used cut-off values of ≥ 0.86 and ≤ -0.31 to diagnose advanced and mild fibrosis, respectively, with receiving operating characteristics of 0.91 and 0.88, respectively. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and positive likelihood ratio were: 73%, 91%, 75%, 90% and 8.0 respectively for advanced fibrosis, and 67%, 88%, 84%, 70% and 4.9, respectively, for mild fibrosis. Our predictive model is easily available and reproducible, and predicted liver fibrosis with acceptable accuracy.

Analysis Using Popularity Awareness Index, Recency Index and Purchase Diversity in Group Buying

OpenAIRE

Shirai, Yasuyuki; Morita, Hiroyuki; Nakamoto, Masakazu; Oyama, Satoshi

2014-01-01

We propose new metrics for customers’ purchasing behaviors in a group buying coupon website, based on HITS algorithms and information entropy: that is, popularity awareness index, recency index, and purchase diversity. These indices are used to classify customers and predict future behaviors. This paper includes definitions of these new indices to be used in real group buying websites. In these websites, adequate characteristics for customers are strongly required and are critical for marketi...

PR-Index: Using the h-Index and PageRank for Determining True Impact.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chao Gao

Full Text Available Several technical indicators have been proposed to assess the impact of authors and institutions. Here, we combine the h-index and the PageRank algorithm to do away with some of the individual limitations of these two indices. Most importantly, we aim to take into account value differences between citations-evaluating the citation sources by defining the h-index using the PageRank score rather than with citations. The resulting PR-index is then constructed by evaluating source popularity as well as the source publication authority. Extensive tests on available collections data (i.e., Microsoft Academic Search and benchmarks on the SIGKDD innovation award show that the PR-index provides a more balanced impact measure than many existing indices. Due to its simplicity and similarity to the popular h-index, the PR-index may thus become a welcome addition to the technical indices already in use. Moreover, growth dynamics prior to the SIGKDD innovation award indicate that the PR-index might have notable predictive power.

Climate Prediction Center - Expert Assessments Index

Science.gov (United States)

Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Prediction Center Home Site Map News Web resources and services. HOME > Monitoring and Data > Global Climate Data & Maps > ; Global Regional Climate Maps Regional Climate Maps Banner The Monthly regional analyses products are

Prostate Health Index (PHI) Predicts High-stage Pathology in African American Men.

Science.gov (United States)

Schwen, Zeyad R; Tosoian, Jeffrey J; Sokoll, Lori J; Mangold, Leslie; Humphreys, Elizabeth; Schaeffer, Edward M; Partin, Alan W; Ross, Ashley E

2016-04-01

To evaluate the association between the Prostate Health Index (PHI) and adverse pathology in a cohort of African American (AA) men undergoing radical prostatectomy. Eighty AA men with prostate-specific antigen (PSA) of 2-10 ng/mL underwent measurement of PSA, free PSA (fPSA), and p2PSA prior to radical prostatectomy. PHI was calculated as [(p2PSA/fPSA) × (PSA)(½)]. Biomarker association with pT3 disease was assessed using logistic regression, and covariates were added to a baseline multivariable model including digital rectal examination. Biomarker ability to predict pT3 disease was measured using the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve. Sixteen men (20%) demonstrated pT3 disease on final pathology. Mean age, PSA, and %fPSA were similar in men with and without pT3 disease (all P  >  .05), whereas PHI was significantly greater in men with pT3 disease (mean 57.2 vs 46.6, P  =  .04). Addition of PHI to the baseline multivariable model improved discriminative ability by 12.9% (P  =. .04) and yielded greater diagnostic accuracy than models, including other individual biomarkers. In AA men with PSA of 2-10 ng/mL, PHI was predictive of pT3 prostate cancer and may help to identify men at increased risk of adverse pathology. Additional studies are needed to substantiate these findings and identify appropriate thresholds for clinical use. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Derivation and validation of a composite index of severity in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: the DOSE Index.

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, Rupert C; Donaldson, Gavin C; Chavannes, Niels H; Kida, Kozui; Dickson-Spillmann, Maria; Harding, Samantha; Wedzicha, Jadwiga A; Price, David; Hyland, Michael E

2009-12-15

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is increasingly recognized as a multicomponent disease with systemic consequences and effects on quality of life. Single measures such as lung function provide a limited reflection of how the disease affects patients. Composite measures have the potential to account for many of the facets of COPD. To derive and validate a multicomponent assessment tool of COPD severity that is applicable to all patients and health care settings. The index was derived using data from 375 patients with COPD in primary care. Regression analysis led to a model explaining 48% of the variance in health status as measured by the Clinical COPD Questionnaire with four components: dyspnea (D), airflow obstruction (O), smoking status (S), and exacerbation frequency (E). The DOSE Index was validated in cross-sectional and longitudinal samples in various health care settings in Holland, Japan, and the United Kingdom. The DOSE Index correlated with health status in all data sets. A high DOSE Index score (> or = 4) was associated with a greater risk of hospital admission (odds ratio, 8.3 [4.1-17]) or respiratory failure (odds ratio, 7.8 [3.4-18.3]). The index predicted exacerbations in the subsequent year (P Index is a simple, valid tool for assessing the severity of COPD. The index is related to a range of clinically important outcomes such as health care consumption and predicts future events.

Niveles y efectos de la consanguinidad en variables de comportamiento durante la tienta y la lidia en dos ganaderías de reses bravas de Colombia Levels and effects of inbreeding on performance traits during tempt and fight from two fighting bull farms in Colombia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David Calero Quintero

2010-04-01

Full Text Available En el estudio se estimaron los niveles y las tendencias de la consanguinidad en variables de comportamiento durante la tienta y la lidia en dos ganaderías colombianas de reses bravas: Ernesto González Caicedo (EGC - Popayán, Cauca, encaste Santacoloma; y Guachicono (GUA - Bolívar, Cauca, Colombia, encaste Parladé. Se analizaron los pedigríes de 2.094 animales EGC nacidos entre 1918 y 2007 y 963 GUA, nacidos entre 1928 y 2005. Los coeficientes de consanguinidad de los bovinos se obtuvieron usando el Proc Inbreed del programa SAS v. 9.1.3. Se estudiaron además de las notas del ganadero, las variables propias y comunes a las faenas de tienta y de lidia. Los promedios y las desviaciones estándar de la consanguinidad en EGC y GUA fueron 4.9±6.6 y 4.2±4.2% para todos los animales, 4.5±5.8 y 6.0±3.4% para la última época estudiada, y 10.6±5.8 y 6.5±3.5% considerando sólo los consanguíneos. Se encontraron efectos positivos en las variables responsables de ‘toreabilidad’ y estilo, y depresivos en la fuerza de los animales. La consanguinidad actual en ambas ganaderías es mediana, sin embargo debe diseñarse un plan de apareamiento.This study was carried out to estimate levels and trends of the inbreeding on behavior variables during the tempt and fight from two fighting farms: Ernesto González Caicedo (EGC and Guachicono (GUA with strains Santacoloma, and Parladé respectively, located on Popayán and Bolívar, municipalities of the Cauca Department, Colombia. The pedigrees of 2094 EGC animals born between 1918 and 2007, and 963 GUA animals born between 1928 and 2005 were analyzed. Inbreeding coefficients of the cattle were obtained using PROC INBREED from the software SAS v. 9.1.3. In addition to the breeder’s notes the own variables, dealing and common to the tempt and fight task were studied. The average and standard deviations of the blood relationship during the total and the last time studied for the cattle raising EGC and

Charlson comorbidity index derived from chart review or administrative data: agreement and prediction of mortality in intensive care patients

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stavem K

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Knut Stavem,1–3 Henrik Hoel,4 Stein Arve Skjaker,5 Rolf Haagensen6 1Institute of Clinical Medicine, University of Oslo, Oslo, 2Department of Pulmonary Medicine, Medical Division, 3Health Services Research Unit, Akershus University Hospital, Lørenskog, 4Department of Surgery, Sykehuset Innlandet Kongsvinger, Kongsvinger, 5Section of Orthopaedic Emergency, Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Oslo University Hospital, Oslo, 6Department of Anaesthesiology, Surgical Division, Akershus University Hospital, Lørenskog, Norway Purpose: This study compared the Charlson comorbidity index (CCI information derived from chart review and administrative systems to assess the completeness and agreement between scores, evaluate the capacity to predict 30-day and 1-year mortality in intensive care unit (ICU patients, and compare the predictive capacity with that of the Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS II model.Patients and methods: Using data from 959 patients admitted to a general ICU in a Norwegian university hospital from 2007 to 2009, we compared the CCI score derived from chart review and administrative systems. Agreement was assessed using % agreement, kappa, and weighted kappa. The capacity to predict 30-day and 1-year mortality was assessed using logistic regression, model discrimination with the c-statistic, and calibration with a goodness-of-fit statistic.Results: The CCI was complete (n=959 when calculated from chart than from administrative data (n=839. Agreement was good, with a weighted kappa of 0.667 (95% confidence interval: 0.596–0.714. The c-statistics for categorized CCI scores from charts and administrative data were similar in the model that included age, sex, and type of admission: 0.755 and 0.743 for 30-day mortality, respectively, and 0.783 and 0.775, respectively, for 1-year mortality. Goodness-of-fit statistics supported the model fit.Conclusion: The CCI scores from chart review and administrative data showed good agreement

Development of a brief parent-report risk index for children following parental divorce.

Science.gov (United States)

Tein, Jenn-Yun; Sandler, Irwin N; Braver, Sanford L; Wolchik, Sharlene A

2013-12-01

This article reports on the development of a brief 15-item parent-report risk index (Child Risk Index for Divorced or Separated Families; CRI-DS) to predict problem outcomes of children who have experienced parental divorce. A series of analyses using 3 data sets were conducted that identified and cross-validated a parsimonious set of items representing parent report of child behavior problems and family level risk and protective factors, each of which contributed to the predictive accuracy of the index. The index predicted child behavior outcomes and substance abuse problems up to 6 years later. The index has acceptable levels of sensitivity and specificity as a screening measure to predict problem outcomes up to 1 year later. The use of the index to identify the need for preventive services is discussed, along with limitations of the study.

Waist Circumference, Body Mass Index, and Other Measures of Adiposity in Predicting Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors among Peruvian Adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Knowles, K M; Paiva, L L; Sanchez, S E; Revilla, L; Lopez, T; Yasuda, M B; Yanez, N D; Gelaye, B; Williams, M A

2011-01-24

Objectives. To examine the extent to which measures of adiposity can be used to predict selected components of metabolic syndrome (MetS) and elevated C-reactive protein (CRP). Methods. A total of 1,518 Peruvian adults were included in this study. Waist circumference (WC), body mass index (BMI), waist-hip ratio (WHR), waist-height ratio (WHtR), and visceral adiposity index (VAI) were examined. The prevalence of each MetS component was determined according to tertiles of each anthropometric measure. ROC curves were used to evaluate the extent to which measures of adiposity can predict cardiovascular risk. Results. All measures of adiposity had the strongest correlation with triglyceride concentrations (TG). For both genders, as adiposity increased, the prevalence of Mets components increased. Compared to individuals with low-BMI and low-WC, men and women with high-BMI and high- WC had higher odds of elevated fasting glucose, blood pressure, TG, and reduced HDL, while only men in this category had higher odds of elevated CRP. Overall, the ROCs showed VAI, WC, and WHtR to be the best predictors for individual MetS components. Conclusions. The results of our study showed that measures of adiposity are correlated with cardiovascular risk although no single adiposity measure was identified as the best predictor for MetS.

APPLICATILITY OF THE VISCERAL ADIPOSITY INDEX (VAI) IN THE PREDICTION OF THE COMPONENTS OF THE METABOLIC SYNDROME IN ELDERLY.

Science.gov (United States)

Goldani, Heloisa; Adami, Fernanda Scherer; Antunes, Maria Terezinha; Rosa, Luis Henrique; Fassina, Patrícia; Quevedo Grave, Magali Terezinha; Morelo Dal Bosco, Simone

2015-10-01

The nutritional assessment may detect a state of malnutrition, overweight and cardiometabolic risk in the elderly. Easy to apply instruments enable the identification of risk factors for cardiovascular diseases (CVD). to analyze the applicability of Visceral Adiposity Index (VAI) in the prediction of MS components in the elderly. cross-sectional study with 221 elderly at a mean age of 70.65 ± 7.34 years; 53.4% female and 46.4% male. Weight, height, waist circumference (WC), fasting glucose, triglycerides (TG), total cholesterol (TC), HDL cholesterol (HDL-C), LDL cholesterol (LDL-C), and blood pressure (BP), data was obtained, as well as information about lifestyle. There were calculated the Body Mass Index (BMI), the Waist-Hip Ratio (WHR), and the VAI. The adiposity measures were compared with the components of MS, and for the VAI there was determined the capability of predicting the occurrence of MS components. by analyzing the association among the biochemical and pressoric variables and MS components with the anthropometric indicators of obesity, there was a direct and significant correlation of the BMI, the weight and the VAI with blood glucose, HDL and TG (p. Copyright AULA MEDICA EDICIONES 2014. Published by AULA MEDICA. All rights reserved.

Predictive utility of blood pressure, waist circumference and body mass index for metabolic syndrome in patients with schizophrenia in Singapore.

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Nurjono, Milawaty; Lee, Jimmy

2013-05-01

This study aims to examine and compare the predictive utility of blood pressure (BP), waist circumference (WC) and body mass index (BMI), and to determine optimal cut-off values in prediction of metabolic syndrome (MetS) in patients with chronic schizophrenia. About 100 patients with chronic schizophrenia were recruited. BMI and BP were measured and laboratory tests to evaluate patients' high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglycerides and glucose levels were performed. Presence of MetS was examined according to AHA/NHLBI guidelines. Predictive utility of BP, WC and BMI was examined using receiver operating curve and discriminant indices were determined accordingly. Forty-six (46%) patients were identified to have MetS. BMI of ≥23 kg m(-2) was most accurate (AUC = 0.83, P < 0.001), with sensitivity of 93.5%, specificity of 48.1%, positive predictive value of 60.6% and negative predictive value of 92.9% in identifying MetS. This finding has immediate and significant clinical implications in the local population with schizophrenia. © 2012 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

Spatiotemporal variability and predictability of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in Alberta, Canada.

Science.gov (United States)

Jiang, Rengui; Xie, Jiancang; He, Hailong; Kuo, Chun-Chao; Zhu, Jiwei; Yang, Mingxiang

2016-09-01

As one of the most popular vegetation indices to monitor terrestrial vegetation productivity, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) has been widely used to study the plant growth and vegetation productivity around the world, especially the dynamic response of vegetation to climate change in terms of precipitation and temperature. Alberta is the most important agricultural and forestry province and with the best climatic observation systems in Canada. However, few studies pertaining to climate change and vegetation productivity are found. The objectives of this paper therefore were to better understand impacts of climate change on vegetation productivity in Alberta using the NDVI and provide reference for policy makers and stakeholders. We investigated the following: (1) the variations of Alberta's smoothed NDVI (sNDVI, eliminated noise compared to NDVI) and two climatic variables (precipitation and temperature) using non-parametric Mann-Kendall monotonic test and Thiel-Sen's slope; (2) the relationships between sNDVI and climatic variables, and the potential predictability of sNDVI using climatic variables as predictors based on two predicted models; and (3) the use of a linear regression model and an artificial neural network calibrated by the genetic algorithm (ANN-GA) to estimate Alberta's sNDVI using precipitation and temperature as predictors. The results showed that (1) the monthly sNDVI has increased during the past 30 years and a lengthened growing season was detected; (2) vegetation productivity in northern Alberta was mainly temperature driven and the vegetation in southern Alberta was predominantly precipitation driven for the period of 1982-2011; and (3) better performances of the sNDVI-climate relationships were obtained by nonlinear model (ANN-GA) than using linear (regression) model. Similar results detected in both monthly and summer sNDVI prediction using climatic variables as predictors revealed the applicability of two models for

Prediction of Lateral Ankle Sprains in Football Players Based on Clinical Tests and Body Mass Index.

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Gribble, Phillip A; Terada, Masafumi; Beard, Megan Q; Kosik, Kyle B; Lepley, Adam S; McCann, Ryan S; Pietrosimone, Brian G; Thomas, Abbey C

2016-02-01

The lateral ankle sprain (LAS) is the most common injury suffered in sports, especially in football. While suggested in some studies, a predictive role of clinical tests for LAS has not been established. To determine which clinical tests, focused on potentially modifiable factors of movement patterns and body mass index (BMI), could best demonstrate risk of LAS among high school and collegiate football players. Case-control study; Level of evidence, 3. A total of 539 high school and collegiate football players were evaluated during the preseason with the Star Excursion Balance Test (SEBT) and Functional Movement Screen as well as BMI. Results were compared between players who did and did not suffer an LAS during the season. Logistic regression analyses and calculated odds ratios were used to determine which measures predicted risk of LAS. The LAS group performed worse on the SEBT-anterior reaching direction (SEBT-ANT) and had higher BMI as compared with the noninjured group (P football players. BMI was also significantly higher in football players who sustained an LAS. Identifying clinical tools for successful LAS injury risk prediction will be a critical step toward the creation of effective prevention programs to reduce risk of sustaining an LAS during participation in football. © 2015 The Author(s).

Comparison of Lipid Accumulation Product Index with Body Mass Index and Waist Circumference as a Predictor of Metabolic Syndrome in Indian Population.

Science.gov (United States)

Ray, Lopamudra; Ravichandran, Kandasamy; Nanda, Sunil Kumar

2018-06-01

Metabolic syndrome (MetS), which confers a high risk for cardiovascular diseases, needs early diagnosis and treatment to reduce morbidity and mortality. Lipid accumulation product index has been reported to be an inexpensive marker of visceral fat and metabolic syndrome. This study aimed to evaluate lipid accumulation product index as a marker for metabolic syndrome in the Indian population where the prevalence of the condition is steadily increasing. A hospital-based, case-control study was conducted with 72 diagnosed cases of metabolic syndrome and 79 control subjects. In all the participants, body mass index (BMI) and lipid accumulation product index were calculated. The difference between cases and controls in BMI, waist circumference (WC), and lipid accumulation product index was assessed by Mann-Whitney U test/unpaired t-test. Associations of BMI, WC, and lipid accumulation product index with metabolic syndrome were compared by multiple logistic regression analysis and receiver operating characteristic analysis. BMI, WC, and lipid accumulation product index were significantly higher in metabolic syndrome (P product index had the highest prediction accuracy. The parameter also had a high area under curve of 0.901 (95% confidence interval 0.85-0.95) and a high sensitivity (76.4%), specificity (91.1%), positive predictive value (88.7%), and negative predictive value (80.9%) for detection of metabolic syndrome. In the Indian population, lipid accumulation product index is a better predictor of metabolic syndrome compared to BMI and WC and should be incorporated in laboratory reports as early, accurate, and inexpensive indicator of metabolic syndrome.

Development of a 3D finite element acoustic model to predict the sound reduction index of stud based double-leaf walls

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Arjunan, A.; Wang, C. J.; Yahiaoui, K.; Mynors, D. J.; Morgan, T.; Nguyen, V. B.; English, M.

2014-11-01

Building standards incorporating quantitative acoustical criteria to ensure adequate sound insulation are now being implemented. Engineers are making great efforts to design acoustically efficient double-wall structures. Accordingly, efficient simulation models to predict the acoustic insulation of double-leaf wall structures are needed. This paper presents the development of a numerical tool that can predict the frequency dependent sound reduction index R of stud based double-leaf walls at one-third-octave band frequency range. A fully vibro-acoustic 3D model consisting of two rooms partitioned using a double-leaf wall, considering the structure and acoustic fluid coupling incorporating the existing fluid and structural solvers are presented. The validity of the finite element (FE) model is assessed by comparison with experimental test results carried out in a certified laboratory. Accurate representation of the structural damping matrix to effectively predict the R values are studied. The possibilities of minimising the simulation time using a frequency dependent mesh model was also investigated. The FEA model presented in this work is capable of predicting the weighted sound reduction index Rw along with A-weighted pink noise C and A-weighted urban noise Ctr within an error of 1 dB. The model developed can also be used to analyse the acoustically induced frequency dependent geometrical behaviour of the double-leaf wall components to optimise them for best acoustic performance. The FE modelling procedure reported in this paper can be extended to other building components undergoing fluid-structure interaction (FSI) to evaluate their acoustic insulation.

Climate Prediction Center(CPC)Daily GOES Precipitation Index (GPI)

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — GOES Precipitation Index (GPI) is a precipitation estimation algorithm. The GPI technique estimates tropical rainfall using cloud-top temperature as the sole...

Development of a Summarized Health Index (SHI for use in predicting survival in sea turtles.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tsung-Hsien Li

Full Text Available Veterinary care plays an influential role in sea turtle rehabilitation, especially in endangered species. Physiological characteristics, hematological and plasma biochemistry profiles, are useful references for clinical management in animals, especially when animals are during the convalescence period. In this study, these factors associated with sea turtle surviving were analyzed. The blood samples were collected when sea turtles remained alive, and then animals were followed up for surviving status. The results indicated that significantly negative correlation was found between buoyancy disorders (BD and sea turtle surviving (p < 0.05. Furthermore, non-surviving sea turtles had significantly higher levels of aspartate aminotranspherase (AST, creatinine kinase (CK, creatinine and uric acid (UA than surviving sea turtles (all p < 0.05. After further analysis by multiple logistic regression model, only factors of BD, creatinine and UA were included in the equation for calculating summarized health index (SHI for each individual. Through evaluation by receiver operating characteristic (ROC curve, the result indicated that the area under curve was 0.920 ± 0.037, and a cut-off SHI value of 2.5244 showed 80.0% sensitivity and 86.7% specificity in predicting survival. Therefore, the developed SHI could be a useful index to evaluate health status of sea turtles and to improve veterinary care at rehabilitation facilities.

Browse Title Index

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Items 251 - 286 of 286 ... AFRICAN JOURNALS ONLINE (AJOL) · Journals · Advanced ... the Hire Purchase and credit sale Act - An unnecessary duplication ? ... Vol 21 (2015), The Influence of Peer Pressure on Adolescents' Social Behaviour, Abstract PDF ... quality indexing for predicting variation of water quality over time ...

Body mass index for predicting hyperglycemia and serum lipid changes in Brazilian adolescents.

Science.gov (United States)

Vieira, Ana Carolina R; Alvarez, Marlene M; Kanaan, Salim; Sichieri, Rosely; Veiga, Gloria V

2009-02-01

To determine the best cut-offs of body mass index for identifying alterations of blood lipids and glucose in adolescents. A probabilistic sample including 577 adolescent students aged 12-19 years in 2003 (210 males and 367 females) from state public schools in the city of Niterói, Southeastern Brazil, was studied. The Receiver Operating Characteristic curve was used to identify the best age-adjusted BMI cut-off for predicting high levels of serum total cholesterol (> or =150 mg/dL), LDL-C (> or =100 mg/dL), serum triglycerides (> or =100 mg/dL), plasma glucose (> 100 mg/dL) and low levels of HDL-C (international and two American. The most prevalent metabolic alterations (>50%) were: high total cholesterol and low HDL-C. BMI predicted high levels of triglycerides in males, high LDL-C in females, and high total cholesterol and the occurrence of three or more metabolic alterations in both males and females (areas under the curve range: 0.59 to 0.67), with low sensitivity (57%-66%) and low specificity (58%-66%). The best BMI cut-offs for this sample (20.3 kg/m(2) to 21.0 kg/m(2)) were lower than those proposed in the references studied. Although BMI values lower than the International cut-offs were better predictor of some metabolic abnormalities in Brazilian adolescents, overall BMI is not a good predictor of these abnormalities in this population.

Correlation of fracture index with BMD T score in postmenopausal females

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chaudhary, U.J.; Osman, S.S.; Moazam, S.; Shah, S.I.A.

2004-01-01

Objective: To find the correlation between fracture index and BMD T-score so that fracture index can be used as a predictive tool for fracture risk estimation in post menopausal females. Design: A cross-sectional study was conducted on a sample of 396 women age 50 years and above. BMD T-score measurements using ultrasound and fracture index calculation based on the risk factor assessment were performed. Results: The study results showed that when fracture index increases BMD T-score decreased to osteoporotic range and correlation coefficient is -0.162. Conclusion: When fracture index increases, BMD T-score decreases therefore we can use fracture index as an assessment tool for predicting fracture risk in postmenopausal females. (author)

Can serum hyaluronic acid replace simple non-invasive indexes to predict liver fibrosis in HIV/Hepatitis C coinfected patients?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Resino Salvador

2010-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Hyaluronic acid (HA serum levels correlate with the histological stages of liver fibrosis in hepatitis C virus (HCV monoinfected patients, and HA alone has shown very good diagnostic accuracy as a non-invasive assessment of fibrosis and cirrhosis. The aim of this study was to evaluate serum HA levels as a simple non-invasive diagnostic test to predict hepatic fibrosis in HIV/HCV-coinfected patients and to compare its diagnostic performance with other previously published simple non-invasive indexes consisting of routine parameters (HGM-1, HGM-2, Forns, APRI, and FIB-4. Methods We carried out a cross-sectional study on 201 patients who all underwent liver biopsies and had not previously received interferon therapy. Liver fibrosis was determined via METAVIR score. The diagnostic accuracy of HA was assessed by area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs. Results The distribution of liver fibrosis in our cohort was 58.2% with significant fibrosis (F≥2, 31.8% with advanced fibrosis (F≥3, and 11.4% with cirrhosis (F4. Values for the AUROC of HA levels corresponding to significant fibrosis (F≥2, advanced fibrosis (F≥3 and cirrhosis (F4 were 0.676, 0.772, and 0.863, respectively. The AUROC values for HA were similar to those for HGM-1, HGM-2, FIB-4, APRI, and Forns indexes. The best diagnostic accuracy of HA was found for the diagnosis of cirrhosis (F4: the value of HA at the low cut-off (1182 ng/mL excluded cirrhosis (F4 with a negative predictive value of 99% and at the high cut-off (2400 ng/mL confirmed cirrhosis (F4 with a positive predictive value of 55%. By utilizing these low and high cut-off points for cirrhosis, biopsies could have theoretically been avoided in 52.2% (111/201 of the patients. Conclusions The diagnostic accuracy of serum HA levels increases gradually with the hepatic fibrosis stage. However, HA is better than other simple non-invasive indexes using parameters easily available in

Predicting the need for institutional care shortly after admission to rehabilitation: Rasch analysis and predictive validity of the BRASS Index.

Science.gov (United States)

Panella, L; La Porta, F; Caselli, S; Marchisio, S; Tennant, A

2012-09-01

Effective discharge planning is increasingly recognised as a critical component of hospital-based Rehabilitation. The BRASS index is a risk screening tool for identification, shortly after hospital admission, of patients who are at risk of post-discharge problems. To evaluate the internal construct validity and reliability of the Blaylock Risk Assessment Screening Score (BRASS) within the rehabilitation setting. Observational prospective study. Rehabilitation ward of an Italian district hospital. One hundred and four consecutively admitted patients. Using classical psychometric methods and Rasch analysis (RA), the internal construct validity and reliability of the BRASS were examined. Also, external and predictive validity of the Rasch-modified BRASS (RMB) score were determined. Reliability of the original BRASS was low (Cronbach's alpha=0.595) and factor analyses showed that it was clearly multidimensional. A RA, based on a reduced 7-BRASS item set (RMB), satisfied model's expectations. Reliability was 0.777. The RMB scores strongly correlated with the original BRASS (rho=0.952; P28 days (RR=7.6, 95%CI=1.8-31.9). This study demonstrated that the original BRASS was multidimensional and unreliable. However, the RMB holds adequate internal construct validity and is sufficiently reliable as a predictor of discharge problems for group, but not individual use. The application of tools and methods (such as the BRASS Index) developed under the biomedical paradigm in a Physical and Rehabilitation Medicine setting may have limitations. Further research is needed to develop, within the rehabilitation setting, a valid measuring tool of risk of post-discharge problems at the individual level.

Predictive validity of the tobacco marketing receptivity index among non-smoking youth.

Science.gov (United States)

Braun, Sandra; Abad-Vivero, Erika Nayeli; Mejía, Raúl; Barrientos, Inti; Sargent, James D; Thrasher, James F

2018-05-01

In a previous cross-sectional study of early adolescents, we developed a marketing receptivity index (MRI) that integrates point-of-sale (PoS) marketing exposures, brand recall, and ownership of branded merchandise. The MRI had independent, positive associations with smoking susceptibility among never smokers and with current smoking behavior. The current longitudinal study assessed the MRI's predictive validity among adolescents who have never smoked cigarettes METHODS: Data come from a longitudinal, school-based survey of 33 secondary schools in Argentina. Students who had never smoked at baseline were followed up approximately 17months later (n=1700). Questions assessed: PoS marketing exposure by querying frequency of going to stores where tobacco is commonly sold; cued recall of brand names for 3 cigarette packages from dominant brands but with the brand name removed; and ownership of branded merchandise. A four-level MRI was derived: 1.low PoS marketing exposure only; 2. high PoS exposure or recall of 1 brand; 3. recall of 2 or more brands; and 4. ownership of branded merchandise. Logistic regression models regressed smoking initiation by follow up survey on the MRI, each of its components, and students' willingness to try a brand, adjusting for sociodemographics, social network smoking, and sensation seeking. The MRI had an independent positive association with smoking initiation. When analyzed separately, each MRI component was associated with outcomes except branded merchandise ownership. The MRI and its components were associated with smoking initiation, except for branded merchandise ownership, which may better predict smoking progression than initiation. The MRI appears valid and useful for future studies. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Low skeletal muscle mass outperforms the Charlson Comorbidity Index in risk prediction in patients undergoing pancreatic resections.

Science.gov (United States)

Wagner, D; Marsoner, K; Tomberger, A; Haybaeck, J; Haas, J; Werkgartner, G; Cerwenka, H; Bacher, H; Mischinger, H J; Kornprat, P

2018-05-01

Low skeletal muscle mass is a known predictor of morbidity and mortality in patients undergoing major pancreatic surgeries. We sought to combine low skeletal muscle mass with established risk predictors to improve their prognostic capacity for postoperative outcome and morbidity. As established parameters to predict preoperative mortality risk for patients, the ASA classification and the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) were used. The Hounsfield Units Average Calculation (HUAC) was measured to define low skeletal muscle mass in 424 patients undergoing pancreatic resections for malignancies. Patients in the lowest sex-adjusted quartile for HUAC were defined as having low skeletal muscle mass (muscle wasting). Multivariable Cox regression analysis was utilized to identify preoperative risk factors associated with postoperative morbidity. Median patient age was 63 years (19-87), 47.9% patients were male, and half the cohort had multiple comorbidities (Charlson Comorbidity Index [CCI]>6, 63.2%), 30-day mortality was 5.8% (n = 25). Median HUAC was 19.78 HU (IQR: 15.94-23.54) with 145 patients (34.2%) having low skeletal muscle mass. Preoperative frailty defined by low skeletal muscle mass was associated with an increased risk for postoperative complications (OR 1.55, CI 95% 0.98-2.45, p = 0.014), and a higher 30-day mortality (HR 5.17, CI 95% 1.57-16.69, p = 0.004). With an AUC of 0.85 HUAC showed the highest predictability for 30-day mortality (CI 95% 0.78-0.91, p = 0.0001). Patients with CCI ≥6 and low skeletal muscle mass defined by the HUAC had a 9.78 higher risk of dying in the immediate postoperative phase (HR 9.78, CI 95% 2.98-12.2, p = 0.0001). Low skeletal muscle mass predicts postoperative mortality and complications best and it should be incorporated to conventional risk scores to identify high risk patients. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd, BASO ~ The Association for Cancer Surgery, and the European Society of Surgical Oncology. All rights

Expansion of the prognostic assessment of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease : the updated BODE index and the ADO index

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Puhan, Milo A.; Garcia-Aymerich, Judith; Frey, Martin; ter Riet, Gerben; Anto, Josep M.; Agusti, Alvar G.; Gomez, Federico P.; Rodriguez-Roisin, Roberto; Moons, Karel G. M.; Kessels, Alphons G.; Held, Ulrike

2009-01-01

Background The BODE index (including body-mass index, airflow obstruction, dyspnoea, and exercise capacity) was an important contribution to the prognostic assessment of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). However, no study has assessed whether the risk of mortality predicted

The diet-related GHG index

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lund, Thomas Bøker; Watson, David; Smed, Sinne

2017-01-01

The aim was to construct and validate a cost-efficient index to measure GHG emissions (GHGe) caused by Danish consumers’ diets to be employed in questionnaire-based surveys. The index was modelled on the basis of actual food purchase data from a panel of ordinary Danish households...... and a questionnaire consisting of food frequency questions issued to the same panel. Based on the purchase data, diet-related GHGe were calculated for 2012. The data was then split into a learning sample and a validation sample. The index was constructed using the learning sample where a scoring procedure...... was calculated from responses to the questionnaire-based food frequency questions that predicted diet-related GHGe. Subsequently, the index scoring procedure was employed on the validation sample and the empirical relevance of the index was examined. In the learning sample, a scoring procedure to construct...

Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve-Based Prediction Model for Periodontal Disease Updated With the Calibrated Community Periodontal Index.

Science.gov (United States)

Su, Chiu-Wen; Yen, Amy Ming-Fang; Lai, Hongmin; Chen, Hsiu-Hsi; Chen, Sam Li-Sheng

2017-12-01

The accuracy of a prediction model for periodontal disease using the community periodontal index (CPI) has been undertaken by using an area under a receiver operating characteristics (AUROC) curve. How the uncalibrated CPI, as measured by general dentists trained by periodontists in a large epidemiologic study, and affects the performance in a prediction model, has not been researched yet. A two-stage design was conducted by first proposing a validation study to calibrate CPI between a senior periodontal specialist and trained general dentists who measured CPIs in the main study of a nationwide survey. A Bayesian hierarchical logistic regression model was applied to estimate the non-updated and updated clinical weights used for building up risk scores. How the calibrated CPI affected performance of the updated prediction model was quantified by comparing AUROC curves between the original and updated models. Estimates regarding calibration of CPI obtained from the validation study were 66% and 85% for sensitivity and specificity, respectively. After updating, clinical weights of each predictor were inflated, and the risk score for the highest risk category was elevated from 434 to 630. Such an update improved the AUROC performance of the two corresponding prediction models from 62.6% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 61.7% to 63.6%) for the non-updated model to 68.9% (95% CI: 68.0% to 69.6%) for the updated one, reaching a statistically significant difference (P prediction model was demonstrated for periodontal disease as measured by the calibrated CPI derived from a large epidemiologic survey.

Inbreeding and building up small populations of stingless bees (Hymenoptera, Apidae

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Paulo Nogueira-Neto

2002-12-01

Full Text Available A study of the viability of small populations of Hymenoptera is a matter of importance to gain a better zoological, ethological, genetical and ecological knowledge of these insects, and for conservation purposes, mainly because of the consequences to the survival of colonies of many species of bees, wasps, and ants. Based on the Whiting (1943 principle, Kerr & Vencovski (1982 presented a hypothesis that states that viable populations of stingless bees (Meliponini should have at least 40 colonies to survive. This number was later extended to 44 colonies by Kerr (1985. This would be necessary to avoid any substantial amount of homozygosis in the pair of chromosomic sexual loci, by keeping at least six different sexual gene alleles in a reproductive population. In most cases this would prevent the production of useless diploid males. However, several facts weigh against considering this as a general rule. From 1990 to 2001, 287 colony divisions were made, starting with 28 foundation colonies, in the inbreeding and population experiments with the Meliponini reported here. These experiments constitute the most extensive and longest scientific research ever made with Meliponini bees. In ten different experiments presented here, seven species (one with two subspecies of Meliponini bees were inbred in five localities inside their wide-reaching native habitats, and in two localities far away from these habitats. This was done for several years. On the whole, the number of colonies increased and the loss of colonies over the years was small. In two of these experiments, although these populations were far (1,000 km and 1,200 km from their native habitat, their foundation colonies were multiplied successfuly. It was possible to build up seven strong and three expanding medium populations, starting with one, two, three or even five colonies. However, in six other cases examined here, the Whiting (1943 principle and the hypothesis of Kerr & Vencovski (1982

Waist Circumference, Body Mass Index, and Other Measures of Adiposity in Predicting Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors among Peruvian Adults

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. M. Knowles

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Objectives. To examine the extent to which measures of adiposity can be used to predict selected components of metabolic syndrome (MetS and elevated C-reactive protein (CRP. Methods. A total of 1,518 Peruvian adults were included in this study. Waist circumference (WC, body mass index (BMI, waist-hip ratio (WHR, waist-height ratio (WHtR, and visceral adiposity index (VAI were examined. The prevalence of each MetS component was determined according to tertiles of each anthropometric measure. ROC curves were used to evaluate the extent to which measures of adiposity can predict cardiovascular risk. Results. All measures of adiposity had the strongest correlation with triglyceride concentrations (TG. For both genders, as adiposity increased, the prevalence of Mets components increased. Compared to individuals with low-BMI and low-WC, men and women with high-BMI and high- WC had higher odds of elevated fasting glucose, blood pressure, TG, and reduced HDL, while only men in this category had higher odds of elevated CRP. Overall, the ROCs showed VAI, WC, and WHtR to be the best predictors for individual MetS components. Conclusions. The results of our study showed that measures of adiposity are correlated with cardiovascular risk although no single adiposity measure was identified as the best predictor for MetS.

Large-scale international validation of the ADO index in subjects with COPD

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Puhan, Milo A; Hansel, Nadia N; Sobradillo, Patricia

2012-01-01

BACKGROUND: Little evidence on the validity of simple and widely applicable tools to predict mortality in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exists. OBJECTIVE: To conduct a large international study to validate the ADO index that uses age, dyspnoea and FEV(1) to predict 3......-IV. MEASUREMENTS: We validated the original ADO index. We then obtained an updated ADO index in half of our cohorts to improve its predictive accuracy, which in turn was validated comprehensively in the remaining cohorts using discrimination, calibration and decision curve analysis and a number of sensitivity......-to-moderate risk of 3-year mortality than FEV(1) alone. INTERPRETATION: The updated 15-point ADO index accurately predicts 3-year mortality across the COPD severity spectrum and can be used to inform patients about their prognosis, clinical trial study design or benefit harm assessment of medical interventions....

Use of structure-activity landscape index curves and curve integrals to evaluate the performance of multiple machine learning prediction models.

Science.gov (United States)

Ledonne, Norman C; Rissolo, Kevin; Bulgarelli, James; Tini, Leonard

2011-02-07

Standard approaches to address the performance of predictive models that used common statistical measurements for the entire data set provide an overview of the average performance of the models across the entire predictive space, but give little insight into applicability of the model across the prediction space. Guha and Van Drie recently proposed the use of structure-activity landscape index (SALI) curves via the SALI curve integral (SCI) as a means to map the predictive power of computational models within the predictive space. This approach evaluates model performance by assessing the accuracy of pairwise predictions, comparing compound pairs in a manner similar to that done by medicinal chemists. The SALI approach was used to evaluate the performance of continuous prediction models for MDR1-MDCK in vitro efflux potential. Efflux models were built with ADMET Predictor neural net, support vector machine, kernel partial least squares, and multiple linear regression engines, as well as SIMCA-P+ partial least squares, and random forest from Pipeline Pilot as implemented by AstraZeneca, using molecular descriptors from SimulationsPlus and AstraZeneca. The results indicate that the choice of training sets used to build the prediction models is of great importance in the resulting model quality and that the SCI values calculated for these models were very similar to their Kendall τ values, leading to our suggestion of an approach to use this SALI/SCI paradigm to evaluate predictive model performance that will allow more informed decisions regarding model utility. The use of SALI graphs and curves provides an additional level of quality assessment for predictive models.

Genetically Predicted Body Mass Index and Breast Cancer Risk

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Guo, Yan; Warren Andersen, Shaneda; Shu, Xiao-Ou

2016-01-01

BACKGROUND: Observational epidemiological studies have shown that high body mass index (BMI) is associated with a reduced risk of breast cancer in premenopausal women but an increased risk in postmenopausal women. It is unclear whether this association is mediated through shared genetic or enviro...

Tritiated-water heat-tolerance index to predict the growth rate in calves in hot deserts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kamal, T.H.

1982-01-01

It was the intention of this study to develop a heat-tolerance index that predicts at an early age the growth rate of calves in a hot desert area (Inshas). Twelve female Friesian calves aged 13-15 months were maintained in climatic chambers for 2 weeks at a mild climate (control), followed by 2 weeks at a hot climate (experimental). Determinations of body water content, body solids, body weight and final rectal temperature were undertaken during the second week of the control and experimental periods. Afterwards the animals were transferred to the farm and maintained outdoors; they were weighed at the end of the 4 summer months. Body water content and rectal temperature were 9.47 and 2.42%, respectively, higher in the hot climate than in the control at P 1 ) or body solids content (X 2 ) that had occurred previously during the 2-weeks heat stress in the climatic chamber by using the equation Y = 39.44 - 1.65X 1 or Y = 45.02 - 1.27X 2 . The standard errors of the regression coefficients for the two equations were 0.094 and 0.132, respectively. The standard errors of the predicted Y for the two equations were 0.207 and 0.218, respectively

Simple Modification of the Bladder Outlet Obstruction Index for Better Prediction of Endoscopically-Proven Prostatic Obstruction: A Preliminary Study.

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Jang Hee Han

Full Text Available The bladder outlet obstruction index (BOOI, also known as the Abrams-Griffiths (AG number, is the most widely used index for predicting BOO. However, the obstructed prostatic urethra determined by the BOOI is often inconsistent with endoscopically-proven obstruction. We assessed abdominal straining pattern as a novel parameter for improving the prediction of BOO.We retrospectively reviewed the pressure-flow studies (PFS and cystourethroscopy in 176 BPH/LUTS patients who were unresponsive to medical therapy. During PFS, some groups of patients tried to urinate with abdominal straining, which can increases intravesical pressure and underestimate BOOI theoretically. Accordingly, the modified BOOI was defined as (PdetQmax+ΔPabd-2Qmax.Ultimately, 130 patients were eligible for the analysis. In PFS, ΔPabd (PabdQmax-initial Pabd was 11.81±13.04 cmH2O, and it was 0-9 cmH2O in 75 (57.7%, 10-19 cmH2O in 23 (17.7% and ≥20 cmH2O in 32 (24.6% patients. An endoscopically obstructed prostatic urethra in 92 patients was correctly determined in 47 patients (51.1% by the original BOOI versus 72 patients (78.3% based on the modified BOOI. Meanwhile, an "unobstructed" urethra according to the original BOOI was present in 11 patients (12.0%, whereas according to the modified BOOI, only 2 (2.1% would be labeled as "unobstructed". In receiver operating characteristic curves, the area under the curve was 0.906 using the modified BOOI number versus 0.849 in the original BOOI (p<0.05.The change in abdominal pressure was correlated with endoscopically-proven obstruction. Our simple modification of the BOOI on the basis of this finding better predicted bladder outlet obstruction and, therefore, should be considered when evaluating BOO in patients with LUTS/BPH.

Left Atrial Volume Index and Prediction of Events in Acute Coronary Syndrome: Solar Registry

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Jose Alves Secundo Junior

2014-10-01

Full Text Available Background: According to some international studies, patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS and increased left atrial volume index (LAVI have worse long-term prognosis. However, national Brazilian studies confirming this prediction are still lacking. Objective: To evaluate LAVI as a predictor of major cardiovascular events (MCE in patients with ACS during a 365-day follow-up. Methods: Prospective cohort of 171 patients diagnosed with ACS whose LAVI was calculated within 48 hours after hospital admission. According to LAVI, two groups were categorized: normal LAVI (≤ 32 mL/m2 and increased LAVI (> 32 mL/m2. Both groups were compared regarding clinical and echocardiographic characteristics, in- and out-of-hospital outcomes, and occurrence of ECM in up to 365 days. Results: Increased LAVI was observed in 78 patients (45%, and was associated with older age, higher body mass index, hypertension, history of myocardial infarction and previous angioplasty, and lower creatinine clearance and ejection fraction. During hospitalization, acute pulmonary edema was more frequent in patients with increased LAVI (14.1% vs. 4.3%, p = 0.024. After discharge, the occurrence of combined outcome for MCE was higher (p = 0.001 in the group with increased LAVI (26% as compared to the normal LAVI group (7% [RR (95% CI = 3.46 (1.54-7.73 vs. 0.80 (0.69-0.92]. After Cox regression, increased LAVI increased the probability of MCE (HR = 3.08, 95% CI = 1.28-7.40, p = 0.012. Conclusion: Increased LAVI is an important predictor of MCE in a one-year follow-up.

Energy index decomposition methodology at the plant level

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Kumphai, Wisit

Scope and method of study. The dissertation explores the use of a high level energy intensity index as a facility-level energy performance monitoring indicator with a goal of developing a methodology for an economically based energy performance monitoring system that incorporates production information. The performance measure closely monitors energy usage, production quantity, and product mix and determines the production efficiency as a part of an ongoing process that would enable facility managers to keep track of and, in the future, be able to predict when to perform a recommissioning process. The study focuses on the use of the index decomposition methodology and explored several high level (industry, sector, and country levels) energy utilization indexes, namely, Additive Log Mean Divisia, Multiplicative Log Mean Divisia, and Additive Refined Laspeyres. One level of index decomposition is performed. The indexes are decomposed into Intensity and Product mix effects. These indexes are tested on a flow shop brick manufacturing plant model in three different climates in the United States. The indexes obtained are analyzed by fitting an ARIMA model and testing for dependency between the two decomposed indexes. Findings and conclusions. The results concluded that the Additive Refined Laspeyres index decomposition methodology is suitable to use on a flow shop, non air conditioned production environment as an energy performance monitoring indicator. It is likely that this research can be further expanded in to predicting when to perform a recommissioning process.

Genomic prediction for Nordic Red Cattle using one-step and selection index blending

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Guosheng, Su; Madsen, Per; Nielsen, Ulrik Sander

2012-01-01

This study investigated the accuracy of direct genomic breeding values (DGV) using a genomic BLUP model, genomic enhanced breeding values (GEBV) using a one-step blending approach, and GEBV using a selection index blending approach for 15 traits of Nordic Red Cattle. The data comprised 6,631 bulls...... genotyped and nongenotyped bulls for one-step blending, and to scale DGV and its expected reliability in the selection index blending. Weighting (scaling) factors had a small influence on reliabilities of GEBV, but a large influence on the variation of GEBV. Based on the validation analyses, averaged over...... the 15 traits, the reliability of DGV for bulls without daughter records was 11.0 percentage points higher than the reliability of conventional pedigree index. Further gain of 0.9 percentage points was achieved by combining information from conventional pedigree index using the selection index blending...

The prostate health index PHI predicts oncological outcome and biochemical recurrence after radical prostatectomy - analysis in 437 patients.

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Maxeiner, Andreas; Kilic, Ergin; Matalon, Julia; Friedersdorff, Frank; Miller, Kurt; Jung, Klaus; Stephan, Carsten; Busch, Jonas

2017-10-03

The purpose of this study was to investigate the Prostate-Health-Index (PHI) for pathological outcome prediction following radical prostatectomy and also for biochemical recurrence prediction in comparison to established parameters such as Gleason-score, pathological tumor stage, resection status (R0/1) and prostate-specific antigen (PSA). Out of a cohort of 460 cases with preoperative PHI-measurements (World Health Organization calibration: Beckman Coulter Access-2-Immunoassay) between 2001 and 2014, 437 patients with complete follow up data were included. From these 437 patients, 87 (19.9%) developed a biochemical recurrence. Patient characteristics were compared by using chi-square test. Predictors were analyzed by multivariate adjusted logistic and Cox regression. The median follow up for a biochemical recurrence was 65 (range 3-161) months. PHI, PSA, [-2]proPSA, PHI- and PSA-density performed as significant variables (p PHI, PSA, %fPSA, [-2]proPSA, PHI- and PSA-density significantly discriminated between stages PHI. In biochemical recurrence prediction PHI, PSA, [-2]proPSA, PHI- and PSA-density were the strongest predictors. In conclusion, due to heterogeneity of time spans to biochemical recurrence, longer follow up periods are crucial. This study with a median follow up of more than 5 years, confirmed a clinical value for PHI as an independent biomarker essential for biochemical recurrence prediction.

Use of structure-activity landscape index curves and curve integrals to evaluate the performance of multiple machine learning prediction models

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LeDonne Norman C

2011-02-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Standard approaches to address the performance of predictive models that used common statistical measurements for the entire data set provide an overview of the average performance of the models across the entire predictive space, but give little insight into applicability of the model across the prediction space. Guha and Van Drie recently proposed the use of structure-activity landscape index (SALI curves via the SALI curve integral (SCI as a means to map the predictive power of computational models within the predictive space. This approach evaluates model performance by assessing the accuracy of pairwise predictions, comparing compound pairs in a manner similar to that done by medicinal chemists. Results The SALI approach was used to evaluate the performance of continuous prediction models for MDR1-MDCK in vitro efflux potential. Efflux models were built with ADMET Predictor neural net, support vector machine, kernel partial least squares, and multiple linear regression engines, as well as SIMCA-P+ partial least squares, and random forest from Pipeline Pilot as implemented by AstraZeneca, using molecular descriptors from SimulationsPlus and AstraZeneca. Conclusion The results indicate that the choice of training sets used to build the prediction models is of great importance in the resulting model quality and that the SCI values calculated for these models were very similar to their Kendall τ values, leading to our suggestion of an approach to use this SALI/SCI paradigm to evaluate predictive model performance that will allow more informed decisions regarding model utility. The use of SALI graphs and curves provides an additional level of quality assessment for predictive models.

Climate Prediction Center - Monitoring and Data Index

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Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Prediction Center Home Site Map News ; Atmospheric Monitoring and Data Monitoring Weather & Climate in Realtime Climate Diagnostics Bulletin Preliminary Climate Diagnostics Bulletin Figures Monthly Atmospheric & Sea Surface Temperature Indices

New composite index based on midlatency auditory evoked potential and electroencephalographic parameters to optimize correlation with propofol effect site concentration - Comparison with bispectral index and solitary used fast extracting auditory evoked potential index

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vereecke, HEM; Vasquez, PM; Jensen, EW; Thas, O; Vandenbroecke, R; Mortier, EP; Struys, MMRF

Background: This study investigates the accuracy of a composite index, the A-Line (R) auditory evoked potentials index version 1.6 (AAI(1.6); Danmeter A/S, Odense, Denmark), as a measure of cerebral anesthetic drug effect in a model for predicting a calculated effect site concentration of propofol

[EVALUATION OF THE BODY ADIPOSITY INDEX IN PREDICTING PERCENTAGE BODY FAT AMONG COLOMBIAN ADULTS].

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González-Ruíz, Katherine; Correa-Bautista, Jorge Enrique; Ramírez-Vélez, Robinson

2015-07-01

the body adiposity index (BAI) is a new simplistic method for predicting body fat percentage (BF%) via a simple equation of hip circumference to height. Up to now, few studies have evaluated the performance of BAI in determining excess fat in Colombians. The aim of this study was to evaluate the usefulness of BAI as a predictor of body fat in among Colombian adults. cross-sectional study carried out in a sample of 204 male belonging to the education sector from Bogotá, Colombia. BAI was calculated based on the equation reported in the Bergman et al. %BF determined by tetrapolar bioimpedance analysis (BIA) was used as the reference measure of adiposity. Bland-Altman analysis was used to assess the agreement between the two methods: BAI and BIA. Associations between anthropometric measures of adiposity were investigated by Pearson correlation analysis. in general pupulation, the BAI overestimates %BF (mean difference: 12.5 % [95%CI = -4.04 % to -21.02 %]), mainly at lower levels of adiposity (mean difference: 10.2 ± 3.3). Significant correlations were found between BAI and all measurements, being the strongest-moderate correlation with %BF (r = 0.777, p Colombian adults and has a tendency to provide overestimated values as BF% decreases. Therefore, this method can be a useful tool to predict %BF in Colombian adults, although it has some limitations. Copyright AULA MEDICA EDICIONES 2014. Published by AULA MEDICA. All rights reserved.

Cardiac magnetic resonance imaging-derived pulmonary artery distensibility index correlates with pulmonary artery stiffness and predicts functional capacity in patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kang, Ki-Woon; Chang, Hyuk-Jae; Kim, Young-Jin; Choi, Byoung-Wook; Yang, Woo-In; Shim, Chi-Young; Ha, Jongwon; Chung, Namsik; Lee, Hye-Sun

2011-01-01

Increased stiffness of the pulmonary vascular bed is known to increase mortality in patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH); and pulmonary artery (PA) stiffness is also thought to be associated with exercise capacity. The purpose of the present study was to investigate whether cardiac magnetic resonance imaging (CMRI)-derived PA distensibility index correlates with PA stiffness estimated on right heart catheterization (RHC) and predicts functional capacity (FC) in patients with PAH. Thirty-five consecutive PAH patients (23% male, mean age, 44±13 years; 69% idiopathic) underwent CMRI, RHC, and 6-min walk test (6MWT). PA distensibility indices were derived from cross-sectional area change (%) in the transverse view, perpendicular to the axis of the main PA, on CMRI [(maximum area-minimum area)/minimum area during cardiac cycle]. Among the PA stiffness indices, pulmonary vascular resistance (PVR) and PA capacitance were calculated using hemodynamic dataset from RHC. CMRI-derived PA distensibility was inversely correlated with PVR (R 2 =0.34, P 2 =0.35, P 2 =0.61, P<0.001). Furthermore, PA distensibility <20% predicted poor FC (<400 m in 6MWT) with a sensitivity of 82% and a specificity of 94%. Non-invasive CMRI-derived PA distensibility index correlates with PA stiffness and can predict FC in patients with PAH. (author)

The Thal-index with the BTT prediction.exe to discriminate β-thalassaemia traits from other microcytic anaemias

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Ahangama Arachchige Nilanga Nishad

2012-06-01

Full Text Available Several attempts have been made previously to differentiate β-thalassaemia trait (BTT from other microcytic anaemias using formulae with red cell (RC parameters. Presently available formulae have low sensitivity and specificity. We wanted to develop a more precise algorithm, which could be used in situations where the gold-standard test for thalassaemia diagnosis: the high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC is not available. The study was carried out prospectively from November 2008 to March 2010 from randomly collected blood samples with a mean cell volume (MCV of less than 80 fL. HbA2 measured by HPLC was used to diagnose BTT. We used Fishers stepwise linear discriminant function analysis to develop an algorithm with RC parameters. Calculated new index Thal-index was then subjected to receiver operating characteristic curve analysis to identify best cutoff to discriminate BTT from other microcytic blood films. Software was developed to predict the BTT status (BTT prediction.exe. New index, referred to as the Thal-index, was calculated using discriminant function analysis and is given as Thal-index=[(0.615xMCV +(0.518xmean corpuscular hemoglobin+ (0.446xred cell distribution width]. A value of 59 for Thal-index has 90% sensitivity and 85% specificity for differentiating BTT from other microcytic anaemias. This showed better sensitivity and specificity compared to other formulae presently used (i.e., Mentzer in Eshani, et al.. Our study gives a better answer to set-up where HPLC is not available. Although this cannot replace HPLC, BTT prediction.exe is useful to predict instantly and is the first ever computer program available for this function. 先前已利用含红细胞（RC）参数的公式做出若干尝试，以鉴别β-地中海贫血（BTT）和其他小红细胞性贫血。目前可用公式的敏感度和特异度均低。我们想要开发更精确的算法，在地中海贫�

Predicting heat stress index in Sasso hens using automatic linear modeling and artificial neural network

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Yakubu, A.; Oluremi, O. I. A.; Ekpo, E. I.

2018-03-01

There is an increasing use of robust analytical algorithms in the prediction of heat stress. The present investigation therefore, was carried out to forecast heat stress index (HSI) in Sasso laying hens. One hundred and sixty seven records on the thermo-physiological parameters of the birds were utilized. They were reared on deep litter and battery cage systems. Data were collected when the birds were 42- and 52-week of age. The independent variables fitted were housing system, age of birds, rectal temperature (RT), pulse rate (PR), and respiratory rate (RR). The response variable was HSI. Data were analyzed using automatic linear modeling (ALM) and artificial neural network (ANN) procedures. The ALM model building method involved Forward Stepwise using the F Statistic criterion. As regards ANN, multilayer perceptron (MLP) with back-propagation network was used. The ANN network was trained with 90% of the data set while 10% were dedicated to testing for model validation. RR and PR were the two parameters of utmost importance in the prediction of HSI. However, the fractional importance of RR was higher than that of PR in both ALM (0.947 versus 0.053) and ANN (0.677 versus 0.274) models. The two models also predicted HSI effectively with high degree of accuracy [r = 0.980, R 2 = 0.961, adjusted R 2 = 0.961, and RMSE = 0.05168 (ALM); r = 0.983, R 2 = 0.966; adjusted R 2 = 0.966, and RMSE = 0.04806 (ANN)]. The present information may be exploited in the development of a heat stress chart based largely on RR. This may aid detection of thermal discomfort in a poultry house under tropical and subtropical conditions.

Updating the Skating Multistage Aerobic Test and Correction for V[Combining Dot Above]O2max Prediction Using a New Skating Economy Index in Elite Youth Ice Hockey Players.

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Allisse, Maxime; Bui, Hung Tien; Léger, Luc; Comtois, Alain-Steve; Leone, Mario

2018-05-07

Allisse, M, Bui, HT, Léger, L, Comtois, A-S, and Leone, M. Updating the skating multistage aerobic test and correction for V[Combining Dot Above]O2max prediction using a new skating economy index in elite youth ice hockey players. J Strength Cond Res XX(X): 000-000, 2018-A number of field tests, including the skating multistage aerobic test (SMAT), have been developed to predict V[Combining Dot Above]O2max in ice hockey players. The SMAT, like most field tests, assumes that participants who reach a given stage have the same oxygen uptake, which is not usually true. Thus, the objectives of this research are to update the V[Combining Dot Above]O2 values during the SMAT using a portable breath-by-breath metabolic analyzer and to propose a simple index of skating economy to improve the prediction of oxygen uptake. Twenty-six elite hockey players (age 15.8 ± 1.3 years) participated in this study. The oxygen uptake was assessed using a portable metabolic analyzer (K4b) during an on-ice maximal shuttle skate test. To develop an index of skating economy called the skating stride index (SSI), the number of skating strides was compiled for each stage of the test. The SMAT enabled the prediction of the V[Combining Dot Above]O2max (ml·kg·min) from the maximal velocity (m·s) and the SSI (skating strides·kg) using the following regression equation: V[Combining Dot Above]O2max = (14.94 × maximal velocity) + (3.68 × SSI) - 24.98 (r = 0.95, SEE = 1.92). This research allowed for the update of the oxygen uptake values of the SMAT and proposed a simple measure of skating efficiency for a more accurate evaluation of V[Combining Dot Above]O2max in elite youth hockey players. By comparing the highest and lowest observed SSI scores in our sample, it was noted that the V[Combining Dot Above]O2 values can vary by up to 5 ml·kg·min. Our results suggest that skating economy should be included in the prediction of V[Combining Dot Above]O2max to improve prediction accuracy.

Predictive value of body mass index to metabolic syndrome risk factors in Syrian adolescents.

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Al-Bachir, Mahfouz; Bakir, Mohamad Adel

2017-06-25

Obesity has become a serious epidemic health problem in both developing and developed countries. There is much evidence that obesity among adolescents contributed significantly to the development of type 2 diabetes and coronary heart disease in adulthood. Very limited information exists on the prevalence of overweight, obesity, and associated metabolic risk factors among Syrian adolescents. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to determine the relationship between obesity determined by body mass index and the major metabolic risk factors among Syrian adolescents. A cross-sectional study of a randomly selected sample of 2064 apparently healthy Syrian adolescents aged 18 to 19 years from Damascus city, in Syria, was performed. Body mass index and blood pressure were measured. Serum concentrations of glucose, triglycerides, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol, and low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol were determined. Metabolic syndrome was defined using the national criteria for each determined metabolic risk factor. Individuals with a body mass index 25 to 29.9 were classified as overweight, whereas individuals with a body mass index ≥30 were classified as obese. A receiver operating characteristics curve was drawn to determine appropriate cut-off points of the body mass index for defining overweight and obesity, and to indicate the performance of body mass index as a predictor of risk factors. The obtained data showed that blood pressure and the overall mean concentrations of fasting blood sugar, triglycerides, cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol, and triglycerides/high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol were significantly higher in overweight and obese adolescent groups (p index and some metabolic risks, the data suggest the best body mass index cut-offs ranged between 23.25 and 24.35 kg/m 2 . A strong association between overweight and obesity as determined by body mass index and high concentrations of metabolic syndrome

Benefits of Group Living Include Increased Feeding Efficiency and Lower Mass Loss during Desiccation in the Social and Inbreeding Spider Stegodyphus dumicola

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Vanthournout, Bram; Greve, Michelle; Bruun, Anne; Bechsgaard, Jesper; Overgaard, Johannes; Bilde, Trine

2016-01-01

Group living carries a price: it inherently entails increased competition for resources and reproduction, and may also be associated with mating among relatives, which carries costs of inbreeding. Nonetheless, group living and sociality is found in many animals, and understanding the direct and indirect benefits of cooperation that override the inherent costs remains a challenge in evolutionary ecology. Individuals in groups may benefit from more efficient management of energy or water reserves, for example in the form of reduced water or heat loss from groups of animals huddling, or through reduced energy demands afforded by shared participation in tasks. We investigated the putative benefits of group living in the permanently social spider Stegodyphus dumicola by comparing the effect of group size on standard metabolic rate, lipid/protein content as a body condition measure, feeding efficiency, per capita web investment, and weight/water loss and survival during desiccation. Because energetic expenditure is temperature sensitive, some assays were performed under varying temperature conditions. We found that feeding efficiency increased with group size, and the rate of weight loss was higher in solitary individuals than in animals in groups of various sizes during desiccation. Interestingly, this was not translated into differences in survival or in standard metabolic rate. We did not detect any group size effects for other parameters, and group size effects did not co-vary with experimental temperature in a predictive manner. Both feeding efficiency and mass loss during desiccation are relevant ecological factors as the former results in lowered predator exposure time, and the latter benefits social spiders which occupy arid, hot environments. PMID:26869936

Benefits of group living include increased feeding efficiency and lower mass loss during desiccation in the social and inbreeding spider Stegodyphus dumicola.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bram eVanthournout

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Group living carries a price: it inherently entails increased competition for resources and reproduction, and may also be associated with mating among relatives, which carries costs of inbreeding. Nonetheless, group living and sociality is found in many animals, and understanding the direct and indirect benefits of cooperation that override the inherent costs remains a challenge in evolutionary ecology. Individuals in groups may benefit from more efficient management of energy or water reserves, for example in the form of reduced water or heat loss from groups of animals huddling, or through reduced energy demands afforded by shared participation in tasks. We investigated the putative benefits of group living in the permanently social spider Stegodyphus dumicola by comparing the effect of group size on standard metabolic rate, lipid/protein content as a body condition measure, feeding efficiency, per capita web investment and weight/water loss and survival during desiccation. Because energetic expenditure is temperature sensitive, some assays were performed under varying temperature conditions. We found that feeding efficiency increased with group size, and the rate of weight loss was higher in solitary individuals than in animals in groups of various sizes during desiccation. Interestingly, this was not translated into differences in survival or in standard metabolic rate. We did not detect any group size effects for other parameters, and group size effects did not co-vary with experimental temperature in a predictive manner. Both feeding efficiency and mass loss during desiccation are relevant ecological factors as the former results in lowered predator exposure time, and the latter benefits social spiders which occupy arid, hot environments.

The ZJU index is a powerful index for identifying NAFLD in the general Chinese population.

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Li, Linman; You, Wenyi; Ren, Wei

2017-10-01

The ZJU index is a novel model for detecting non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) that it is calculated based on combination of the body mass index, fasting plasma glucose, triglycerides, and the serum alanine aminotransferase-to-aspartate transaminase ratio. We aimed to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of the ZJU index in detecting NAFLD in the Chinese population. This was a cross-sectional study. Anthropometric measurements, laboratory data, and ultrasonography features were collected through a standard protocol. The ZJU index, fatty liver index, hepatic steatosis index, lipid accumulation product, and visceral adiposity index were calculated. Then the predictive values of the five indices were compared according to the area under receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROC) values. A total of 19,804 participants were recruited, of whom 7324 participants were diagnosed with NFALD and 12,480 subjects were regarded as controls. The AUROC value for NAFLD identification by the ZJU index was 0.925 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.919-0.931), which was significantly higher than the values for the other four models (P 60 years, the AUROC for the ZJU increased from 87.1 to 95.4%, values which were also greater than those for the other four indices. Analysis by sex also showed that the performance of the ZJU index in males and females was better than that of the other four indices. The ZJU index is an accurate and easy to employ tool for identifying NAFLD in the general Chinese population.

Pedigree-based estimation of covariance between dominance deviations and additive genetic effects in closed rabbit lines considering inbreeding and using a computationally simpler equivalent model.

Science.gov (United States)

Fernández, E N; Legarra, A; Martínez, R; Sánchez, J P; Baselga, M

2017-06-01

Inbreeding generates covariances between additive and dominance effects (breeding values and dominance deviations). In this work, we developed and applied models for estimation of dominance and additive genetic variances and their covariance, a model that we call "full dominance," from pedigree and phenotypic data. Estimates with this model such as presented here are very scarce both in livestock and in wild genetics. First, we estimated pedigree-based condensed probabilities of identity using recursion. Second, we developed an equivalent linear model in which variance components can be estimated using closed-form algorithms such as REML or Gibbs sampling and existing software. Third, we present a new method to refer the estimated variance components to meaningful parameters in a particular population, i.e., final partially inbred generations as opposed to outbred base populations. We applied these developments to three closed rabbit lines (A, V and H) selected for number of weaned at the Polytechnic University of Valencia. Pedigree and phenotypes are complete and span 43, 39 and 14 generations, respectively. Estimates of broad-sense heritability are 0.07, 0.07 and 0.05 at the base versus 0.07, 0.07 and 0.09 in the final generations. Narrow-sense heritability estimates are 0.06, 0.06 and 0.02 at the base versus 0.04, 0.04 and 0.01 at the final generations. There is also a reduction in the genotypic variance due to the negative additive-dominance correlation. Thus, the contribution of dominance variation is fairly large and increases with inbreeding and (over)compensates for the loss in additive variation. In addition, estimates of the additive-dominance correlation are -0.37, -0.31 and 0.00, in agreement with the few published estimates and theoretical considerations. © 2017 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Evaluation of the Cerebral State Index in Cats under Isoflurane Anaesthesia: Dose-Effect Relationship and Prediction of Clinical Signs

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Joana R. Sousa

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The performance of the cerebral state index (CSI in reflecting different levels of isoflurane anaesthesia was evaluated in ten cats subjected to four end-tidal isoflurane concentrations (EtIso, each maintained for 15 minutes (0.8%, 1.2%, 1.6%, or 2.0% EtIso. The CSI, hemodynamic data, ocular reflexes, and eye position were recorded for each EtIso concentration. Pharmacodynamic analysis of CSI with EtIso was performed, as well as prediction probability analysis with a clinical scale based on the eye reflexes. The CSI values showed great variability. Between all parameters, burst suppression ratio showed the better fitting with the sigmoidal concentration-effect model (R2=0.93 followed by CSI (R2=0.82 and electromyographic activity (R2=0.79. EtIso was the variable with better prediction of the clinical scale of anaesthesia (prediction probability value of 0.94. Although the CSI values decrease with increasing isoflurane concentrations, the huge variability in CSI values may be a strong limitation for its use in cats and it seems to be no better than EtIso as a predictor of clinical signs.

Use of Radiographic Densitometry to Predict the Bone Healing Index in Distraction Osteogenesis

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A Saw

2008-04-01

Full Text Available Bone lengthening with distraction osteogenesis involves prolonged application of an external fixator frame. Qualitative and quantitative evaluation of callus has been described using various imaging modalities but there is no simple reliable and readily available method. This study aims to investigate the use of a densitometer to analyze plain radiographic images and correlate them with the rate of new bone formation as represented by the bone healing index. A total of 34 bone lengthening procedures in 29 patients were retrospectively reviewed. We used an X-Rite 301 densitometer to measure densities of new callus on plain radiographs taken at 4 and 8 weeks after surgery. Patients aged below 16y had significantly lower BHIs indicating faster bone healing and shorter duration of treatment. The ratio of radiographic densities between centre and edge of the new bone measured from plain radiographs taken at 8 weeks correlated positively with the eventual BHI of the patient. This method provides a simple and easy way to predict the rate of bone healing at an early stage of treatment and may also allow remedial action to be taken for those with poor progress in bone formation.

Predicting dyslexia at age 11 from a risk index questionnaire at age 5.

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Helland, Turid; Plante, Elena; Hugdahl, Kenneth

2011-08-01

This study focused on predicting dyslexia in children ahead of formal literacy training. Because dyslexia is a constitutional impairment, risk factors should be seen in preschool. It was hypothesized that data gathered at age 5 using questions targeting the dyslexia endophenotype should be reliable and valid predictors of dyslexia at age 11. A questionnaire was given to caretakers of 120 5-year-old children, and a risk index score was calculated based on questions regarding health, laterality, motor skills, language, special needs education and heredity. An at-risk group (n = 25) and matched controls (n = 24) were followed until age 11, when a similar questionnaire and literacy tests were administered to the children who participated in the follow-up study (22 at risk and 20 control). Half of the at-risk children and two of the control children at age 5 were identified as having dyslexia at age 11 (8 girls and 5 boys). It is concluded that it is possible to identify children at the age of 5 who will have dyslexia at the age of 11 through a questionnaire approach. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Prediction of compressibility parameters of the soils using artificial neural network.

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Kurnaz, T Fikret; Dagdeviren, Ugur; Yildiz, Murat; Ozkan, Ozhan

2016-01-01

The compression index and recompression index are one of the important compressibility parameters to determine the settlement calculation for fine-grained soil layers. These parameters can be determined by carrying out laboratory oedometer test on undisturbed samples; however, the test is quite time-consuming and expensive. Therefore, many empirical formulas based on regression analysis have been presented to estimate the compressibility parameters using soil index properties. In this paper, an artificial neural network (ANN) model is suggested for prediction of compressibility parameters from basic soil properties. For this purpose, the input parameters are selected as the natural water content, initial void ratio, liquid limit and plasticity index. In this model, two output parameters, including compression index and recompression index, are predicted in a combined network structure. As the result of the study, proposed ANN model is successful for the prediction of the compression index, however the predicted recompression index values are not satisfying compared to the compression index.

Predicting 30-Day Readmissions in an Asian Population: Building a Predictive Model by Incorporating Markers of Hospitalization Severity.

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Lian Leng Low

Full Text Available To reduce readmissions, it may be cost-effective to consider risk stratification, with targeting intervention programs to patients at high risk of readmissions. In this study, we aimed to derive and validate a prediction model including several novel markers of hospitalization severity, and compare the model with the LACE index (Length of stay, Acuity of admission, Charlson comorbidity index, Emergency department visits in past 6 months, an established risk stratification tool.This was a retrospective cohort study of all patients ≥ 21 years of age, who were admitted to a tertiary hospital in Singapore from January 1, 2013 through May 31, 2015. Data were extracted from the hospital's electronic health records. The outcome was defined as unplanned readmissions within 30 days of discharge from the index hospitalization. Candidate predictive variables were broadly grouped into five categories: Patient demographics, social determinants of health, past healthcare utilization, medical comorbidities, and markers of hospitalization severity. Multivariable logistic regression was used to predict the outcome, and receiver operating characteristic analysis was performed to compare our model with the LACE index.74,102 cases were enrolled for analysis. Of these, 11,492 patient cases (15.5% were readmitted within 30 days of discharge. A total of fifteen predictive variables were strongly associated with the risk of 30-day readmissions, including number of emergency department visits in the past 6 months, Charlson Comorbidity Index, markers of hospitalization severity such as 'requiring inpatient dialysis during index admission, and 'treatment with intravenous furosemide 40 milligrams or more' during index admission. Our predictive model outperformed the LACE index by achieving larger area under the curve values: 0.78 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.77-0.79 versus 0.70 (95% CI: 0.69-0.71.Several factors are important for the risk of 30-day readmissions

Link prediction with node clustering coefficient

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Wu, Zhihao; Lin, Youfang; Wang, Jing; Gregory, Steve

2016-06-01

Predicting missing links in incomplete complex networks efficiently and accurately is still a challenging problem. The recently proposed Cannistrai-Alanis-Ravai (CAR) index shows the power of local link/triangle information in improving link-prediction accuracy. Inspired by the idea of employing local link/triangle information, we propose a new similarity index with more local structure information. In our method, local link/triangle structure information can be conveyed by clustering coefficient of common-neighbors directly. The reason why clustering coefficient has good effectiveness in estimating the contribution of a common-neighbor is that it employs links existing between neighbors of a common-neighbor and these links have the same structural position with the candidate link to this common-neighbor. In our experiments, three estimators: precision, AUP and AUC are used to evaluate the accuracy of link prediction algorithms. Experimental results on ten tested networks drawn from various fields show that our new index is more effective in predicting missing links than CAR index, especially for networks with low correlation between number of common-neighbors and number of links between common-neighbors.

Aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index for fibrosis and cirrhosis prediction in chronic hepatitis C patients

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Roberto Gomes da Silva Junior

Full Text Available In chronic hepatitis C (CHC, liver biopsy is the gold standard method for assessing liver histology, however it is invasive and can have complications. Non-invasive markers have been proposed and aspartate aminotransferase (AST-to-platelet ratio index (APRI has been shown as an easy and inexpensive marker of liver fibrosis. This study evaluated the diagnostic performance of APRI for significant fibrosis and cirrhosis prediction in CHC patients. This study included treatment-naive CHC patients who had undergone liver biopsy from January 2000 to August 2006. All histological slides were reviewed according to the METAVIR system. APRI was calculated based on laboratory results performed within four months from the biopsy. Twenty-eight (56% patients had significant fibrosis (F2-F4 and 13 (26% had cirrhosis (F4. The area under ROC curves of APRI for predicting significant fibrosis and cirrhosis were 0.92 (0.83-1.00 and 0.92 (0.85-1.00, respectively. Using cut-off values recommended by prior studies, significant fibrosis could be identified, in accordance with liver biopsy, in 44% and cirrhosis in 66% of patients. APRI could identify significant fibrosis and cirrhosis at a high degree of accuracy in studied patients.

Waist-to-height ratio as index of cardiometabolic risk among the doctors

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Miliva Mozaffor

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The aim of this study was to see the cardiometabolic risk among doctors using waist-to-height ratio index as tool. Cardiometabolic risk is an umbrella term that includes all the risk factors of diabetes and cardiovascular disease. The study was conducted among 195 doctors. According to waist-to-height ratio index 167 (85.6% doctors had cardiometabolic risk. Waist-to-height ratio index was found good (area under the curve >0.5, sensitivity 88.1%, specificity 23.2%, positive predictive value 53.9%, and negative predictive value 66.7% for their predictive value of cardiometabolic risk. Age grouping was done and found that no age group was free from cardiometabolic risk.

Changes in the Oswestry Disability Index that predict improvement after lumbar fusion.

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Djurasovic, Mladen; Glassman, Steven D; Dimar, John R; Crawford, Charles H; Bratcher, Kelly R; Carreon, Leah Y

2012-11-01

Clinical studies use both disease-specific and generic health outcomes measures. Disease-specific measures focus on health domains most relevant to the clinical population, while generic measures assess overall health-related quality of life. There is little information about which domains of the Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) are most important in determining improvement in overall health-related quality of life, as measured by the 36-Item Short Form Health Survey (SF-36), after lumbar spinal fusion. The objective of the study is to determine which clinical elements assessed by the ODI most influence improvement of overall health-related quality of life. A single tertiary spine center database was used to identify patients undergoing lumbar fusion for standard degenerative indications. Patients with complete preoperative and 2-year outcomes measures were included. Pearson correlation was used to assess the relationship between improvement in each item of the ODI with improvement in the SF-36 physical component summary (PCS) score, as well as achievement of the SF-36 PCS minimum clinically important difference (MCID). Multivariate regression modeling was used to examine which items of the ODI best predicted achievement for the SF-36 PCS MCID. The effect size and standardized response mean were calculated for each of the items of the ODI. A total of 1104 patients met inclusion criteria (674 female and 430 male patients). The mean age at surgery was 57 years. All items of the ODI showed significant correlations with the change in SF-36 PCS score and achievement of MCID for the SF-36 PCS, but only pain intensity, walking, and social life had r values > 0.4 reflecting moderate correlation. These 3 variables were also the dimensions that were independent predictors of the SF-36 PCS, and they were the only dimensions that had effect sizes and standardized response means that were moderate to large. Of the health dimensions measured by the ODI, pain intensity, walking

Heterogeneity index evaluated by slope of linear regression on 18F-FDG PET/CT as a prognostic marker for predicting tumor recurrence in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Yong-il; Kim, Yong Joong; Paeng, Jin Chul; Cheon, Gi Jeong; Lee, Dong Soo; Chung, June-Key; Kang, Keon Wook

2017-01-01

18 F-Fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET)/computed tomography (CT) has been investigated as a method to predict pancreatic cancer recurrence after pancreatic surgery. We evaluated the recently introduced heterogeneity indices of 18 F-FDG PET/CT used for predicting pancreatic cancer recurrence after surgery and compared them with current clinicopathologic and 18 F-FDG PET/CT parameters. A total of 93 pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma patients (M:F = 60:33, mean age = 64.2 ± 9.1 years) who underwent preoperative 18 F-FDG PET/CT following pancreatic surgery were retrospectively enrolled. The standardized uptake values (SUVs) and tumor-to-background ratios (TBR) were measured on each 18 F-FDG PET/CT, as metabolic parameters. Metabolic tumor volume (MTV) and total lesion glycolysis (TLG) were examined as volumetric parameters. The coefficient of variance (heterogeneity index-1; SUVmean divided by the standard deviation) and linear regression slopes (heterogeneity index-2) of the MTV, according to SUV thresholds of 2.0, 2.5 and 3.0, were evaluated as heterogeneity indices. Predictive values of clinicopathologic and 18 F-FDG PET/CT parameters and heterogeneity indices were compared in terms of pancreatic cancer recurrence. Seventy patients (75.3%) showed recurrence after pancreatic cancer surgery (mean recurrence = 9.4 ± 8.4 months). Comparing the recurrence and no recurrence patients, all of the 18 F-FDG PET/CT parameters and heterogeneity indices demonstrated significant differences. In univariate Cox-regression analyses, MTV (P = 0.013), TLG (P = 0.007), and heterogeneity index-2 (P = 0.027) were significant. Among the clinicopathologic parameters, CA19-9 (P = 0.025) and venous invasion (P = 0.002) were selected as significant parameters. In multivariate Cox-regression analyses, MTV (P = 0.005), TLG (P = 0.004), and heterogeneity index-2 (P = 0.016) with venous invasion (P < 0.001, 0.001, and 0.001, respectively) demonstrated significant results

A simple model for yield prediction of rice based on vegetation index derived from satellite and AMeDAS data during ripening period

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wakiyama, Y.; Inoue, K.; Nakazono, K.

2003-01-01

The present study was conducted to show a simple model for rice yield predicting by using a vegetation index (NDVI) derived from satellite and meteorological data. In a field experiment, the relationship between the vegetation index and radiation absorbed by the rice canopy was investigated from transplanting to maturity. Their correlation held. This result revealed that the vegetation index could be used as a measure of absorptance of solar radiation by rice canopy. NDVI multiplied by solar radiation (SR) every day was accumulated (Σ(SR·NDVI)) from the field experiment. Σ(SR·NDVI) was plotted against above ground dry matter. It was obvious that they had a strong relationship. Rice yield largely depends on solar radiation and air temperature during the ripening period. Air temperature affects dry matter production. Relationships between Y SR -1 (Y: rice yield, SR: solar radiation) and mean air temperature were investigated from meteorological data and statistical data on rice yield. There was an optimum air temperature, 21.3°C, for ripening. When it was near 21.3°C in the ripening period, the rice yield was higher. We proposed a simple model for yield prediction of rice based on these results. The model is composed with SR·NDVI and the optimum air temperature. Vegetation index was derived from 3 years, LANDSAT TM data in Toyama, Ishikawa, Fukui and Nagano prefectures at heading. The meteorological data was used from AMeDAS data. The model was described as follows: Y = 0.728 SR·NDVI−2.04(T−21.3) 2 + 282 (r 2 = 0.65, n = 43) where Y is rice yield (kg 10a -1 ), SR is solar radiation (MJ m -2 ) during the ripening period (from 10 days before heading to 30 days after heading), T is mean air temperature (°C) during the ripening period. RMSE was 33.7kg 10a -1 . The model revealed good precision. (author)

Demographic mechanisms of inbreeding adjustment through extra-pair reproduction.

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Reid, Jane M; Duthie, A Bradley; Wolak, Matthew E; Arcese, Peter

2015-07-01

One hypothesis explaining extra-pair reproduction is that socially monogamous females mate with extra-pair males to adjust the coefficient of inbreeding (f) of extra-pair offspring (EPO) relative to that of within-pair offspring (WPO) they would produce with their socially paired male. Such adjustment of offspring f requires non-random extra-pair reproduction with respect to relatedness, which is in turn often assumed to require some mechanism of explicit pre-copulatory or post-copulatory kin discrimination. We propose three demographic processes that could potentially cause mean f to differ between individual females' EPO and WPO given random extra-pair reproduction with available males without necessarily requiring explicit kin discrimination. Specifically, such a difference could arise if social pairings formed non-randomly with respect to relatedness or persisted non-randomly with respect to relatedness, or if the distribution of relatedness between females and their sets of potential mates changed during the period through which social pairings persisted. We used comprehensive pedigree and pairing data from free-living song sparrows (Melospiza melodia) to quantify these three processes and hence investigate how individual females could adjust mean offspring f through instantaneously random extra-pair reproduction. Female song sparrows tended to form social pairings with unrelated or distantly related males slightly less frequently than expected given random pairing within the defined set of available males. Furthermore, social pairings between more closely related mates tended to be more likely to persist across years than social pairings between less closely related mates. However, these effects were small and the mean relatedness between females and their sets of potential extra-pair males did not change substantially across the years through which social pairings persisted. Our framework and analyses illustrate how demographic and social structuring within

Predicting Optimal Outcomes in Cognitive Therapy or Interpersonal Psychotherapy for Depressed Individuals Using the Personalized Advantage Index Approach.

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Marcus J H Huibers

Full Text Available Although psychotherapies for depression produce equivalent outcomes, individual patients respond differently to different therapies. Predictors of outcome have been identified in the context of randomized trials, but this information has not been used to predict which treatment works best for the depressed individual. In this paper, we aim to replicate a recently developed treatment selection method, using data from an RCT comparing the effects of cognitive therapy (CT and interpersonal psychotherapy (IPT.134 depressed patients completed the pre- and post-treatment BDI-II assessment. First, we identified baseline predictors and moderators. Second, individual treatment recommendations were generated by combining the identified predictors and moderators in an algorithm that produces the Personalized Advantage Index (PAI, a measure of the predicted advantage in one therapy compared to the other, using standard regression analyses and the leave-one-out cross-validation approach.We found five predictors (gender, employment status, anxiety, personality disorder and quality of life and six moderators (somatic complaints, cognitive problems, paranoid symptoms, interpersonal self-sacrificing, attributional style and number of life events of treatment outcome. The mean average PAI value was 8.9 BDI points, and 63% of the sample was predicted to have a clinically meaningful advantage in one of the therapies. Those who were randomized to their predicted optimal treatment (either CT or IPT had an observed mean end-BDI of 11.8, while those who received their predicted non-optimal treatment had an end-BDI of 17.8 (effect size for the difference = 0.51.Depressed patients who were randomized to their predicted optimal treatment fared much better than those randomized to their predicted non-optimal treatment. The PAI provides a great opportunity for formal decision-making to improve individual patient outcomes in depression. Although the utility of the PAI

High pulmonary vascular resistance in addition to low right ventricular stroke work index effectively predicts biventricular assist device requirement.

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Imamura, Teruhiko; Kinugawa, Koichiro; Kinoshita, Osamu; Nawata, Kan; Ono, Minoru

2016-03-01

Although the right ventricular stroke work index (RVSWI) is a good index for RV function, a low RVSWI is not necessarily an indicator for the need for a right ventricular assist device at the time of left VAD implantation. We here aimed to determine a more precise indicator for the need for a biventricular assist device (BiVAD). In total, 116 patients (mean age, 38 ± 14 years), who underwent hemodynamic assessments preoperatively including 12 BiVAD patients, and had been followed at our institute from 2003 to 2015, were included. Multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that RVSWI and pulmonary vascular resistance (PVR) were independent predictors of BiVAD requirement (P 5 g/m, PVR 5, PVR > 3.7), (3) RV failure (RVSWI 3.7), and examined. Most of the patients in Group 4 (75 %), with acutely depressed hemodynamics and inflammatory responses in the myocardium, required BiVAD. Overall, patients with BiVAD had a worse survival rate as compared with those with LVAD alone. In conclusion, high PVR in addition to low RVSWI effectively predicts BiVAD requirement.

[Preoperative Prognostic Nutrition Index Is a Predictive Factor of Complications in Laparoscopic Colorectal Surgery].

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Yano, Yuki; Sagawa, Masano; Yokomizo, Hajime; Okayama, Sachiyo; Yamada, Yasufumi; Usui, Takebumi; Yamaguchi, Kentaro; Shiozawa, Shunichi; Yoshimatsu, Kazuhiko; Shimakawa, Takeshi; Katsube, Takao; Kato, Hiroyuki; Naritaka, Yoshihiko

2017-10-01

Paitients and methods: We retrospectively reviewed a database of 188 patients who underwent resection for colorectal cancer with laparoscopic surgery between July 2007 and March 2015. The prognostic nutrition index(PNI), modified Glas- gow prognostic score(mGPS), controlling nutritional status(CONUT), and neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio(N/L)were measured in these patients. We examined the association between postoperative complications and clinicopathological factors. The study included 110 men and 78 women. Median age was 68 years. The site of the primary lesion was colon in 118 and rectum in 70 patients. Postoperative complications higher than Grade II(Clavien-Dindo classification)were reported in 24(12.8%)patients: Surgical site infection(SSI)in 12, remote infection in 7, ileus in 5, and others in 2 patients. Clinicopathological factors related to complications were rectal surgery, large amount of intraoperative bleeding, and long operative time. The related immunologic and nutritional factors were mGPS 2, PNI below 40, and N/L above 3. CONUT was not associated with complications in ourcases. mGPS, PNI, and N/L are predictive factors for complications in laparoscopic colorectal surgery.

Structural and Functional Brain Connectivity of People with Obesity and Prediction of Body Mass Index Using Connectivity.

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Bo-yong Park

Full Text Available Obesity is a medical condition affecting billions of people. Various neuroimaging methods including magnetic resonance imaging (MRI have been used to obtain information about obesity. We adopted a multi-modal approach combining diffusion tensor imaging (DTI and resting state functional MRI (rs-fMRI to incorporate complementary information and thus better investigate the brains of non-healthy weight subjects. The objective of this study was to explore multi-modal neuroimaging and use it to predict a practical clinical score, body mass index (BMI. Connectivity analysis was applied to DTI and rs-fMRI. Significant regions and associated imaging features were identified based on group-wise differences between healthy weight and non-healthy weight subjects. Six DTI-driven connections and 10 rs-fMRI-driven connectivities were identified. DTI-driven connections better reflected group-wise differences than did rs-fMRI-driven connectivity. We predicted BMI values using multi-modal imaging features in a partial least-square regression framework (percent error 15.0%. Our study identified brain regions and imaging features that can adequately explain BMI. We identified potentially good imaging biomarker candidates for obesity-related diseases.

The Prognostic Nutritional Index Predicts Survival and Identifies Aggressiveness of Gastric Cancer.

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Eo, Wan Kyu; Chang, Hye Jung; Suh, Jungho; Ahn, Jin; Shin, Jeong; Hur, Joon-Young; Kim, Gou Young; Lee, Sookyung; Park, Sora; Lee, Sanghun

2015-01-01

Nutritional status has been associated with long-term outcomes in cancer patients. The prognostic nutritional index (PNI) is calculated by serum albumin concentration and absolute lymphocyte count, and it may be a surrogate biomarker for nutritional status and possibly predicts overall survival (OS) of gastric cancer. We evaluated the value of the PNI as a predictor for disease-free survival (DFS) in addition to OS in a cohort of 314 gastric cancer patients who underwent curative surgical resection. There were 77 patients in PNI-low group (PNI ≤ 47.3) and 237 patients in PNI-high group (PNI > 47.3). With a median follow-up of 36.5 mo, 5-yr DFS rates in PNI-low group and PNI-high group were 63.5% and 83.6% and 5-yr OS rates in PNI-low group and PNI-high group were 63.5% and 88.4%, respectively (DFS, P < 0.0001; OS, P < 0.0001). In the multivariate analysis, the only predictors for DFS were PNI, tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) stage, and perineural invasion, whereas the only predictors for OS were PNI, age, TNM stage, and perineural invasion. In addition, the PNI was independent of various inflammatory markers. In conclusion, the PNI is an independent prognostic factor for both DFS and OS, and provides additional prognostic information beyond pathologic parameters.

Foundation Settlement Prediction Based on a Novel NGM Model

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Peng-Yu Chen

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Prediction of foundation or subgrade settlement is very important during engineering construction. According to the fact that there are lots of settlement-time sequences with a nonhomogeneous index trend, a novel grey forecasting model called NGM (1,1,k,c model is proposed in this paper. With an optimized whitenization differential equation, the proposed NGM (1,1,k,c model has the property of white exponential law coincidence and can predict a pure nonhomogeneous index sequence precisely. We used two case studies to verify the predictive effect of NGM (1,1,k,c model for settlement prediction. The results show that this model can achieve excellent prediction accuracy; thus, the model is quite suitable for simulation and prediction of approximate nonhomogeneous index sequence and has excellent application value in settlement prediction.

Development and Validation of an Aquatic Fine Sediment Biotic Index

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Relyea, Christina D.; Minshall, G. Wayne; Danehy, Robert J.

2012-01-01

The Fine Sediment Biotic Index (FSBI) is a regional, stressor-specific biomonitoring index to assess fine sediment (Plecoptera (5), Trichoptera (3), and Ephemeroptera (2) contained all but one of the species or species groups classified as extremely sensitive. Index validation with an independent data set of 255 streams found FSBI scores to accurately predict both high and low levels of measured fine sediment.

A new body shape index predicts mortality hazard independently of body mass index.

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Nir Y Krakauer

Full Text Available Obesity, typically quantified in terms of Body Mass Index (BMI exceeding threshold values, is considered a leading cause of premature death worldwide. For given body size (BMI, it is recognized that risk is also affected by body shape, particularly as a marker of abdominal fat deposits. Waist circumference (WC is used as a risk indicator supplementary to BMI, but the high correlation of WC with BMI makes it hard to isolate the added value of WC.We considered a USA population sample of 14,105 non-pregnant adults (age ≥ 18 from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES 1999-2004 with follow-up for mortality averaging 5 yr (828 deaths. We developed A Body Shape Index (ABSI based on WC adjusted for height and weight: ABSI ≡ WC/(BMI(2/3height(1/2. ABSI had little correlation with height, weight, or BMI. Death rates increased approximately exponentially with above average baseline ABSI (overall regression coefficient of +33% per standard deviation of ABSI [95% confidence interval: +20%-+48%, whereas elevated death rates were found for both high and low values of BMI and WC. 22% (8%-41% of the population mortality hazard was attributable to high ABSI, compared to 15% (3%-30% for BMI and 15% (4%-29% for WC. The association of death rate with ABSI held even when adjusted for other known risk factors including smoking, diabetes, blood pressure, and serum cholesterol. ABSI correlation with mortality hazard held across the range of age, sex, and BMI, and for both white and black ethnicities (but not for Mexican ethnicity, and was not weakened by excluding deaths from the first 3 yr of follow-up.Body shape, as measured by ABSI, appears to be a substantial risk factor for premature mortality in the general population derivable from basic clinical measurements. ABSI expresses the excess risk from high WC in a convenient form that is complementary to BMI and to other known risk factors.

Transvaginal cervical length and amniotic fluid index: can it predict delivery latency following preterm premature rupture of membranes?

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Mehra, Suwan; Amon, Erol; Hopkins, Sarah; Gavard, Jeffrey A; Shyken, Jaye

2015-03-01

We sought to determine whether transvaginal cervical length (TVCL), amniotic fluid index (AFI), or a combination of both can predict delivery latency within 7 days in women presenting with preterm premature rupture of membranes (PPROM). This was a prospective observational study of TVCL measurements in 106 singleton pregnancies with PPROM between 23-33 weeks. Delivery latency was defined as the period (in days) from the initial TVCL after PPROM to delivery of the infant, with our primary outcome being delivery within 7 days of TVCL. The independent predictability of significant characteristics for delivery within 7 days was determined using multiple logistic regression. Sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values were used to examine whether the presence of a short TVCL, AFI, or a combination of both affected the risk of delivery within 7 days. Delivery within 7 days occurred in 51/106 (48%) of pregnancies. Median duration (interquartile range) from PPROM to delivery and TVCL to delivery was 8 days (4.0-16.0) and 8 days (3.0-15.0), respectively. Using multiple regression TVCL as a continuous variable (odds ratio, 0.65; 95% confidence interval, 0.44-0.97; P 7 days for TVCL >2 cm alone was 61%. This predictive value changed when analyzed in conjunction with an AFI ≤5 cm and >5 cm at 42% and 89%, respectively. A shorter TVCL and an AFI ≤5 cm independently predict delivery within 7 days in women presenting with PPROM. The combination of an AFI >5 cm and TVCL >2 cm greatly improved the potential to remain undelivered at 7 days following cervical length assessment. These findings may be helpful for counseling and optimizing maternal and neonatal care in women with PPROM. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Endometriosis fertility index predicts live births following surgical resection of moderate and severe endometriosis.

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Maheux-Lacroix, S; Nesbitt-Hawes, E; Deans, R; Won, H; Budden, A; Adamson, D; Abbott, J A

2017-11-01

Can live birth be accurately predicted following surgical resection of moderate-severe (Stage III-IV) endometriosis? Live births can accurately be predicted with the endometriosis fertility index (EFI), with adnexal function being the most important factor to predict non-assisted reproductive technology (non-ART) fertility or the requirement for ART (www.endometriosisefi.com). Fertility prognosis is important to many women with severe endometriosis. Controversy persists regarding optimal post-operative management to achieve pregnancy and the counselling of patients regarding duration of conventional treatments before undergoing ART. The EFI is reported to correlate with expectant management pregnancy rate, although external validation has been performed without specifically addressing fertility in women with moderate and severe endometriosis. Retrospective cohort study of 279 women from September 2001 to June 2016. We included women undergoing laparoscopic resection of Stage III-IV endometriosis who attempted pregnancy post-operatively. The EFI was calculated based on detailed operative reports and surgical images. Fertility outcomes were obtained by direct patient contact. Kaplan-Meier model, log rank test and Cox regression were used for analyses. The follow-up rate was 84% with a mean duration of 4.1 years. A total of 147 women (63%) had a live birth following surgery, 94 of them (64%) without ART. The EFI was highly associated with live births (P years was 0% and steadily increased up to 91% with an EFI of 9-10, while the proportion of women who attempted ART and had a live birth, steadily increased from 38 to 71% among the same EFI strata (P = 0.1). A low least function score was the most significant predictor of failure (P = 0.003), followed by having had a previous resection (P = 0.019) or incomplete resection (P = 0.028), being older than 40 compared to years of age (P = 0.027), and having leiomyomas (P = 0.037). The main limitation of this study is its

Entomologic index for human risk of Lyme disease.

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Mather, T N; Nicholson, M C; Donnelly, E F; Matyas, B T

1996-12-01

An entomologic index based on density estimates of Lyme disease spirochete-infected nymphal deer ticks (lxodes scapularis) was developed to assess human risk of Lyme disease. The authors used a standardized protocol to determine tick density and infection in numerous forested sites in six Rhode Island towns. An entomologic risk index calculated for each town was compared with the number of human Lyme disease cases reported to the Rhode Island State Health Department for the same year. A strong positive relation between entomologic risk index and the Lyme disease case rate for each town suggested that the entomologic index was predictive of Lyme disease risk.

Does the arrival index predict physiological stress reactivity in children.

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de Veld, Danielle M J; Riksen-Walraven, J Marianne; de Weerth, Carolina

2014-09-01

Knowledge about children's stress reactivity and its correlates is mostly based on one stress task, making it hard to assess the generalizability of the results. The development of an additional stress paradigm for children, that also limits stress exposure and test time, could greatly advance this field of research. Research in adults may provide a starting point for the development of such an additional stress paradigm, as changes in salivary cortisol and alpha-amylase (sAA) over a 1-h pre-stress period in the laboratory correlated strongly with subsequent reactivity to stress task (Balodis et al., 2010, Psychoneuroendocrinology 35:1363-73). The present study examined whether such strong correlations could be replicated in 9- to 11-year-old children. Cortisol and sAA samples were collected from 158 children (83 girls) during a 2.5-h visit to the laboratory. This visit included a 1-h pre-stress period in which children performed some non-stressful tasks and relaxed before taking part in a psychosocial stress task (TSST-C). A higher cortisol arrival index was significantly and weakly correlated with a higher AUCg but unrelated to cortisol reactivity to the stressor. A higher sAA arrival index was significantly and moderately related to lower stress reactivity and to a lower AUCi. Children's personality and emotion regulation variables were unrelated to the cortisol and sAA arrival indices. The results of this study do not provide a basis for the development of an additional stress paradigm for children. Further replications in children and adults are needed to clarify the potential meaning of an arrival index.

Heterogeneity index evaluated by slope of linear regression on {sup 18}F-FDG PET/CT as a prognostic marker for predicting tumor recurrence in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Yong-il [CHA University, Department of Nuclear Medicine, CHA Bundang Medical Center, Seongnam (Korea, Republic of); Seoul National University Hospital, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Yong Joong [Veterans Health Service Medical Center, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Paeng, Jin Chul; Cheon, Gi Jeong; Lee, Dong Soo [Seoul National University Hospital, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Chung, June-Key [Seoul National University Hospital, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Seoul National University, Cancer Research Institute, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Kang, Keon Wook [Seoul National University Hospital, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Seoul National University, Cancer Research Institute, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Seoul National University College of Medicine, Department of Biomedical Sciences, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Seoul National University College of Medicine, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

2017-11-15

{sup 18}F-Fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET)/computed tomography (CT) has been investigated as a method to predict pancreatic cancer recurrence after pancreatic surgery. We evaluated the recently introduced heterogeneity indices of {sup 18}F-FDG PET/CT used for predicting pancreatic cancer recurrence after surgery and compared them with current clinicopathologic and {sup 18}F-FDG PET/CT parameters. A total of 93 pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma patients (M:F = 60:33, mean age = 64.2 ± 9.1 years) who underwent preoperative {sup 18}F-FDG PET/CT following pancreatic surgery were retrospectively enrolled. The standardized uptake values (SUVs) and tumor-to-background ratios (TBR) were measured on each {sup 18}F-FDG PET/CT, as metabolic parameters. Metabolic tumor volume (MTV) and total lesion glycolysis (TLG) were examined as volumetric parameters. The coefficient of variance (heterogeneity index-1; SUVmean divided by the standard deviation) and linear regression slopes (heterogeneity index-2) of the MTV, according to SUV thresholds of 2.0, 2.5 and 3.0, were evaluated as heterogeneity indices. Predictive values of clinicopathologic and {sup 18}F-FDG PET/CT parameters and heterogeneity indices were compared in terms of pancreatic cancer recurrence. Seventy patients (75.3%) showed recurrence after pancreatic cancer surgery (mean recurrence = 9.4 ± 8.4 months). Comparing the recurrence and no recurrence patients, all of the {sup 18}F-FDG PET/CT parameters and heterogeneity indices demonstrated significant differences. In univariate Cox-regression analyses, MTV (P = 0.013), TLG (P = 0.007), and heterogeneity index-2 (P = 0.027) were significant. Among the clinicopathologic parameters, CA19-9 (P = 0.025) and venous invasion (P = 0.002) were selected as significant parameters. In multivariate Cox-regression analyses, MTV (P = 0.005), TLG (P = 0.004), and heterogeneity index-2 (P = 0.016) with venous invasion (P < 0.001, 0.001, and 0

Fall Risk Index predicts functional decline regardless of fall experiences among community-dwelling elderly.

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Ishimoto, Yasuko; Wada, Taizo; Kasahara, Yoriko; Kimura, Yumi; Fukutomi, Eriko; Chen, Wenling; Hirosaki, Mayumi; Nakatsuka, Masahiro; Fujisawa, Michiko; Sakamoto, Ryota; Ishine, Masayuki; Okumiya, Kiyohito; Otsuka, Kuniaki; Matsubayashi, Kozo

2012-10-01

The 21-item Fall Risk Index (FRI-21) has been used to detect elderly persons at risk for falls. The aim of this longitudinal study was to evaluate the FRI-21 as a predictor of decline in basic activities of daily living (BADL) among Japanese community-dwelling elderly persons independent of fall risk. The study population consisted of 518 elderly participants aged 65 years and older who were BADL independent at baseline in Tosa, Japan. We examined risk factors for BADL decline from 2008 to 2009 by multiple logistic regression analysis on the FRI-21 and other functional status measures in all participants. We carried out the same analysis in selected participants who had no experience of falls to remove the effect of falls. A total of 45 of 518 participants showed decline in BADL within 1 year. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that age (odds ratio [OR] 1.13, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.05-1.20), FRI-21 ≥ 10 (OR 3.81, 95% CI 1.49-9.27), intellectual activity dependence (OR 3.25, 95% CI 1.42-7.44) and history of osteoarthropathy (OR 3.17, 95% CI 1.40-7.21) were significant independent risk factors for BADL decline within 1 year. FRI-21 ≥ 10 and intellectual activity dependence (≤ 3) remained significant predictors, even in selected non-fallers. FRI-21 ≥ 10 and intellectual activity dependence were significant predictive factors of BADL decline, regardless of fall experience, after adjustment for confounding variables. The FRI-21 is a brief, useful tool not only for predicting falls, but also future decline in functional ability in community-dwelling elderly persons. © 2012 Japan Geriatrics Society.

Indexes of Land Use Change to Predict Aggregate Stability in a Mollisol and a Vertisol of Argentina

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Novelli, L. E.; Caviglia, O. P.; Wilson, M. G.; Sasal, M. C.

2012-04-01

In several areas of South America, the extensive cropping systems in traditional agricultural lands have increase the area cropped with soybean, mainly as a single annual crop. Also nowadays agriculture has a progressive expansion toward more environmentally fragile areas that were traditionally occupied by livestock or native forests. This change of land use may be characterized through different indexes as the length of the growth period or the frequency of a particular crop in the cropping sequence. On the other hand the consequences of land-use changes on soil physical condition may be monitored through the aggregate stability, which is directly related to soil functionality. However, there are different methods for aggregate stability analysis, which may vary in their potential for prediction. The aim of our work was to assess different quantitative indexes of change in the land use on aggregate stability through two methods in two soils differing in the main agents of aggregation. The study was conducted in a Mollisol and a Vertisol from Argentina. Eleven fields (agricultural and crop-pasture rotation) under no-tillage and one natural grassland were selected in each soil type. The fraction of annual time with vegetal cover (as a measure of the intensification in the land use - ISI) and the frequency of a given crop (soybean - SCF; wheat - WCF; and wheat plus maize - CCF) in the cropping sequence over a 6-year period were calculated. Samples were collected at 0-5 and 5-15 cm depths from each soil. The mean weight diameter (MWD) of the soil aggregates where determined by two methods: Le Bissonnais with three pretreatment (fast wetting, slow wetting and stirring after prewetting) and by wet sieving using an instrument similar to the Yoder apparatus. The MWD by wet-sieving was affected by ISI and SCF, but the impact only was recorded in 0-5cm depth of the Mollisol. The MWD by fast and slow wetting and the means of three pretreatments (MWDm) were directly related

Market Confidence Predicts Stock Price: Beyond Supply and Demand.

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Xiao-Qian Sun

Full Text Available Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem in stock market analysis. Existing prediction methods either exploit autocorrelation of stock price and its correlation with the supply and demand of stock, or explore predictive indictors exogenous to stock market. In this paper, using transaction record of stocks with identifier of traders, we introduce an index to characterize market confidence, i.e., the ratio of the number of traders who is active in two successive trading days to the number of active traders in a certain trading day. Strong Granger causality is found between the index of market confidence and stock price. We further predict stock price by incorporating the index of market confidence into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 50 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate that the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of the market confidence index. This study sheds light on using cross-day trading behavior to characterize market confidence and to predict stock price.

Market Confidence Predicts Stock Price: Beyond Supply and Demand.

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Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi; Zhang, Yuqing

2016-01-01

Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem in stock market analysis. Existing prediction methods either exploit autocorrelation of stock price and its correlation with the supply and demand of stock, or explore predictive indictors exogenous to stock market. In this paper, using transaction record of stocks with identifier of traders, we introduce an index to characterize market confidence, i.e., the ratio of the number of traders who is active in two successive trading days to the number of active traders in a certain trading day. Strong Granger causality is found between the index of market confidence and stock price. We further predict stock price by incorporating the index of market confidence into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 50 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate that the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of the market confidence index. This study sheds light on using cross-day trading behavior to characterize market confidence and to predict stock price.