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Sample records for inaccurate bayesian branch-length

  1. Long-branch attraction bias and inconsistency in Bayesian phylogenetics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolaczkowski, Bryan; Thornton, Joseph W

    2009-12-09

    Bayesian inference (BI) of phylogenetic relationships uses the same probabilistic models of evolution as its precursor maximum likelihood (ML), so BI has generally been assumed to share ML's desirable statistical properties, such as largely unbiased inference of topology given an accurate model and increasingly reliable inferences as the amount of data increases. Here we show that BI, unlike ML, is biased in favor of topologies that group long branches together, even when the true model and prior distributions of evolutionary parameters over a group of phylogenies are known. Using experimental simulation studies and numerical and mathematical analyses, we show that this bias becomes more severe as more data are analyzed, causing BI to infer an incorrect tree as the maximum a posteriori phylogeny with asymptotically high support as sequence length approaches infinity. BI's long branch attraction bias is relatively weak when the true model is simple but becomes pronounced when sequence sites evolve heterogeneously, even when this complexity is incorporated in the model. This bias--which is apparent under both controlled simulation conditions and in analyses of empirical sequence data--also makes BI less efficient and less robust to the use of an incorrect evolutionary model than ML. Surprisingly, BI's bias is caused by one of the method's stated advantages--that it incorporates uncertainty about branch lengths by integrating over a distribution of possible values instead of estimating them from the data, as ML does. Our findings suggest that trees inferred using BI should be interpreted with caution and that ML may be a more reliable framework for modern phylogenetic analysis.

  2. Long-branch attraction bias and inconsistency in Bayesian phylogenetics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bryan Kolaczkowski

    Full Text Available Bayesian inference (BI of phylogenetic relationships uses the same probabilistic models of evolution as its precursor maximum likelihood (ML, so BI has generally been assumed to share ML's desirable statistical properties, such as largely unbiased inference of topology given an accurate model and increasingly reliable inferences as the amount of data increases. Here we show that BI, unlike ML, is biased in favor of topologies that group long branches together, even when the true model and prior distributions of evolutionary parameters over a group of phylogenies are known. Using experimental simulation studies and numerical and mathematical analyses, we show that this bias becomes more severe as more data are analyzed, causing BI to infer an incorrect tree as the maximum a posteriori phylogeny with asymptotically high support as sequence length approaches infinity. BI's long branch attraction bias is relatively weak when the true model is simple but becomes pronounced when sequence sites evolve heterogeneously, even when this complexity is incorporated in the model. This bias--which is apparent under both controlled simulation conditions and in analyses of empirical sequence data--also makes BI less efficient and less robust to the use of an incorrect evolutionary model than ML. Surprisingly, BI's bias is caused by one of the method's stated advantages--that it incorporates uncertainty about branch lengths by integrating over a distribution of possible values instead of estimating them from the data, as ML does. Our findings suggest that trees inferred using BI should be interpreted with caution and that ML may be a more reliable framework for modern phylogenetic analysis.

  3. Length Scales in Bayesian Automatic Adaptive Quadrature

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    Adam Gh.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Two conceptual developments in the Bayesian automatic adaptive quadrature approach to the numerical solution of one-dimensional Riemann integrals [Gh. Adam, S. Adam, Springer LNCS 7125, 1–16 (2012] are reported. First, it is shown that the numerical quadrature which avoids the overcomputing and minimizes the hidden floating point loss of precision asks for the consideration of three classes of integration domain lengths endowed with specific quadrature sums: microscopic (trapezoidal rule, mesoscopic (Simpson rule, and macroscopic (quadrature sums of high algebraic degrees of precision. Second, sensitive diagnostic tools for the Bayesian inference on macroscopic ranges, coming from the use of Clenshaw-Curtis quadrature, are derived.

  4. Do Branch Lengths Help to Locate a Tree in a Phylogenetic Network?

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    Gambette, Philippe; van Iersel, Leo; Kelk, Steven; Pardi, Fabio; Scornavacca, Celine

    2016-09-01

    Phylogenetic networks are increasingly used in evolutionary biology to represent the history of species that have undergone reticulate events such as horizontal gene transfer, hybrid speciation and recombination. One of the most fundamental questions that arise in this context is whether the evolution of a gene with one copy in all species can be explained by a given network. In mathematical terms, this is often translated in the following way: is a given phylogenetic tree contained in a given phylogenetic network? Recently this tree containment problem has been widely investigated from a computational perspective, but most studies have only focused on the topology of the phylogenies, ignoring a piece of information that, in the case of phylogenetic trees, is routinely inferred by evolutionary analyses: branch lengths. These measure the amount of change (e.g., nucleotide substitutions) that has occurred along each branch of the phylogeny. Here, we study a number of versions of the tree containment problem that explicitly account for branch lengths. We show that, although length information has the potential to locate more precisely a tree within a network, the problem is computationally hard in its most general form. On a positive note, for a number of special cases of biological relevance, we provide algorithms that solve this problem efficiently. This includes the case of networks of limited complexity, for which it is possible to recover, among the trees contained by the network with the same topology as the input tree, the closest one in terms of branch lengths.

  5. The K tree score: quantification of differences in the relative branch length and topology of phylogenetic trees.

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    Soria-Carrasco, Víctor; Talavera, Gerard; Igea, Javier; Castresana, Jose

    2007-11-01

    We introduce a new phylogenetic comparison method that measures overall differences in the relative branch length and topology of two phylogenetic trees. To do this, the algorithm first scales one of the trees to have a global divergence as similar as possible to the other tree. Then, the branch length distance, which takes differences in topology and branch lengths into account, is applied to the two trees. We thus obtain the minimum branch length distance or K tree score. Two trees with very different relative branch lengths get a high K score whereas two trees that follow a similar among-lineage rate variation get a low score, regardless of the overall rates in both trees. There are several applications of the K tree score, two of which are explained here in more detail. First, this score allows the evaluation of the performance of phylogenetic algorithms, not only with respect to their topological accuracy, but also with respect to the reproduction of a given branch length variation. In a second example, we show how the K score allows the selection of orthologous genes by choosing those that better follow the overall shape of a given reference tree. http://molevol.ibmb.csic.es/Ktreedist.html

  6. Convergence among cave catfishes: long-branch attraction and a Bayesian relative rates test.

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    Wilcox, T P; García de León, F J; Hendrickson, D A; Hillis, D M

    2004-06-01

    Convergence has long been of interest to evolutionary biologists. Cave organisms appear to be ideal candidates for studying convergence in morphological, physiological, and developmental traits. Here we report apparent convergence in two cave-catfishes that were described on morphological grounds as congeners: Prietella phreatophila and Prietella lundbergi. We collected mitochondrial DNA sequence data from 10 species of catfishes, representing five of the seven genera in Ictaluridae, as well as seven species from a broad range of siluriform outgroups. Analysis of the sequence data under parsimony supports a monophyletic Prietella. However, both maximum-likelihood and Bayesian analyses support polyphyly of the genus, with P. lundbergi sister to Ictalurus and P. phreatophila sister to Ameiurus. The topological difference between parsimony and the other methods appears to result from long-branch attraction between the Prietella species. Similarly, the sequence data do not support several other relationships within Ictaluridae supported by morphology. We develop a new Bayesian method for examining variation in molecular rates of evolution across a phylogeny.

  7. The Impact of Reconstruction Methods, Phylogenetic Uncertainty and Branch Lengths on Inference of Chromosome Number Evolution in American Daisies (Melampodium, Asteraceae).

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    McCann, Jamie; Schneeweiss, Gerald M; Stuessy, Tod F; Villaseñor, Jose L; Weiss-Schneeweiss, Hanna

    2016-01-01

    Chromosome number change (polyploidy and dysploidy) plays an important role in plant diversification and speciation. Investigating chromosome number evolution commonly entails ancestral state reconstruction performed within a phylogenetic framework, which is, however, prone to uncertainty, whose effects on evolutionary inferences are insufficiently understood. Using the chromosomally diverse plant genus Melampodium (Asteraceae) as model group, we assess the impact of reconstruction method (maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood, Bayesian methods), branch length model (phylograms versus chronograms) and phylogenetic uncertainty (topological and branch length uncertainty) on the inference of chromosome number evolution. We also address the suitability of the maximum clade credibility (MCC) tree as single representative topology for chromosome number reconstruction. Each of the listed factors causes considerable incongruence among chromosome number reconstructions. Discrepancies between inferences on the MCC tree from those made by integrating over a set of trees are moderate for ancestral chromosome numbers, but severe for the difference of chromosome gains and losses, a measure of the directionality of dysploidy. Therefore, reliance on single trees, such as the MCC tree, is strongly discouraged and model averaging, taking both phylogenetic and model uncertainty into account, is recommended. For studying chromosome number evolution, dedicated models implemented in the program ChromEvol and ordered maximum parsimony may be most appropriate. Chromosome number evolution in Melampodium follows a pattern of bidirectional dysploidy (starting from x = 11 to x = 9 and x = 14, respectively) with no prevailing direction.

  8. The Impact of Reconstruction Methods, Phylogenetic Uncertainty and Branch Lengths on Inference of Chromosome Number Evolution in American Daisies (Melampodium, Asteraceae.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jamie McCann

    Full Text Available Chromosome number change (polyploidy and dysploidy plays an important role in plant diversification and speciation. Investigating chromosome number evolution commonly entails ancestral state reconstruction performed within a phylogenetic framework, which is, however, prone to uncertainty, whose effects on evolutionary inferences are insufficiently understood. Using the chromosomally diverse plant genus Melampodium (Asteraceae as model group, we assess the impact of reconstruction method (maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood, Bayesian methods, branch length model (phylograms versus chronograms and phylogenetic uncertainty (topological and branch length uncertainty on the inference of chromosome number evolution. We also address the suitability of the maximum clade credibility (MCC tree as single representative topology for chromosome number reconstruction. Each of the listed factors causes considerable incongruence among chromosome number reconstructions. Discrepancies between inferences on the MCC tree from those made by integrating over a set of trees are moderate for ancestral chromosome numbers, but severe for the difference of chromosome gains and losses, a measure of the directionality of dysploidy. Therefore, reliance on single trees, such as the MCC tree, is strongly discouraged and model averaging, taking both phylogenetic and model uncertainty into account, is recommended. For studying chromosome number evolution, dedicated models implemented in the program ChromEvol and ordered maximum parsimony may be most appropriate. Chromosome number evolution in Melampodium follows a pattern of bidirectional dysploidy (starting from x = 11 to x = 9 and x = 14, respectively with no prevailing direction.

  9. Adjusting case mix payment amounts for inaccurately reported comorbidity data.

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    Sutherland, Jason M; Hamm, Jeremy; Hatcher, Jeff

    2010-03-01

    Case mix methods such as diagnosis related groups have become a basis of payment for inpatient hospitalizations in many countries. Specifying cost weight values for case mix system payment has important consequences; recent evidence suggests case mix cost weight inaccuracies influence the supply of some hospital-based services. To begin to address the question of case mix cost weight accuracy, this paper is motivated by the objective of improving the accuracy of cost weight values due to inaccurate or incomplete comorbidity data. The methods are suitable to case mix methods that incorporate disease severity or comorbidity adjustments. The methods are based on the availability of detailed clinical and cost information linked at the patient level and leverage recent results from clinical data audits. A Bayesian framework is used to synthesize clinical data audit information regarding misclassification probabilities into cost weight value calculations. The models are implemented through Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. An example used to demonstrate the methods finds that inaccurate comorbidity data affects cost weight values by biasing cost weight values (and payments) downward. The implications for hospital payments are discussed and the generalizability of the approach is explored.

  10. Multiple sequence alignment accuracy and phylogenetic inference.

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    Ogden, T Heath; Rosenberg, Michael S

    2006-04-01

    Phylogenies are often thought to be more dependent upon the specifics of the sequence alignment rather than on the method of reconstruction. Simulation of sequences containing insertion and deletion events was performed in order to determine the role that alignment accuracy plays during phylogenetic inference. Data sets were simulated for pectinate, balanced, and random tree shapes under different conditions (ultrametric equal branch length, ultrametric random branch length, nonultrametric random branch length). Comparisons between hypothesized alignments and true alignments enabled determination of two measures of alignment accuracy, that of the total data set and that of individual branches. In general, our results indicate that as alignment error increases, topological accuracy decreases. This trend was much more pronounced for data sets derived from more pectinate topologies. In contrast, for balanced, ultrametric, equal branch length tree shapes, alignment inaccuracy had little average effect on tree reconstruction. These conclusions are based on average trends of many analyses under different conditions, and any one specific analysis, independent of the alignment accuracy, may recover very accurate or inaccurate topologies. Maximum likelihood and Bayesian, in general, outperformed neighbor joining and maximum parsimony in terms of tree reconstruction accuracy. Results also indicated that as the length of the branch and of the neighboring branches increase, alignment accuracy decreases, and the length of the neighboring branches is the major factor in topological accuracy. Thus, multiple-sequence alignment can be an important factor in downstream effects on topological reconstruction.

  11. Branch length similarity entropy-based descriptors for shape representation

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    Kwon, Ohsung; Lee, Sang-Hee

    2017-11-01

    In previous studies, we showed that the branch length similarity (BLS) entropy profile could be successfully used for the shape recognition such as battle tanks, facial expressions, and butterflies. In the present study, we proposed new descriptors, roundness, symmetry, and surface roughness, for the recognition, which are more accurate and fast in the computation than the previous descriptors. The roundness represents how closely a shape resembles to a circle, the symmetry characterizes how much one shape is similar with another when the shape is moved in flip, and the surface roughness quantifies the degree of vertical deviations of a shape boundary. To evaluate the performance of the descriptors, we used the database of leaf images with 12 species. Each species consisted of 10 - 20 leaf images and the total number of images were 160. The evaluation showed that the new descriptors successfully discriminated the leaf species. We believe that the descriptors can be a useful tool in the field of pattern recognition.

  12. Partial Deconvolution with Inaccurate Blur Kernel.

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    Ren, Dongwei; Zuo, Wangmeng; Zhang, David; Xu, Jun; Zhang, Lei

    2017-10-17

    Most non-blind deconvolution methods are developed under the error-free kernel assumption, and are not robust to inaccurate blur kernel. Unfortunately, despite the great progress in blind deconvolution, estimation error remains inevitable during blur kernel estimation. Consequently, severe artifacts such as ringing effects and distortions are likely to be introduced in the non-blind deconvolution stage. In this paper, we tackle this issue by suggesting: (i) a partial map in the Fourier domain for modeling kernel estimation error, and (ii) a partial deconvolution model for robust deblurring with inaccurate blur kernel. The partial map is constructed by detecting the reliable Fourier entries of estimated blur kernel. And partial deconvolution is applied to wavelet-based and learning-based models to suppress the adverse effect of kernel estimation error. Furthermore, an E-M algorithm is developed for estimating the partial map and recovering the latent sharp image alternatively. Experimental results show that our partial deconvolution model is effective in relieving artifacts caused by inaccurate blur kernel, and can achieve favorable deblurring quality on synthetic and real blurry images.Most non-blind deconvolution methods are developed under the error-free kernel assumption, and are not robust to inaccurate blur kernel. Unfortunately, despite the great progress in blind deconvolution, estimation error remains inevitable during blur kernel estimation. Consequently, severe artifacts such as ringing effects and distortions are likely to be introduced in the non-blind deconvolution stage. In this paper, we tackle this issue by suggesting: (i) a partial map in the Fourier domain for modeling kernel estimation error, and (ii) a partial deconvolution model for robust deblurring with inaccurate blur kernel. The partial map is constructed by detecting the reliable Fourier entries of estimated blur kernel. And partial deconvolution is applied to wavelet-based and learning

  13. Regional blood flow analysis and its relationship with arterial branch lengths and lumen volume in the coronary arterial tree

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Molloi, Sabee; Wong, Jerry T

    2007-01-01

    The limitations of visually assessing coronary artery disease are well known. These limitations are particularly important in intermediate coronary lesions (30-70% diameter stenosis) where it is difficult to determine whether a particular lesion is the cause of ischaemia. Therefore, a functional measure of stenosis severity is needed. The purpose of this study is to determine whether the expected maximum coronary blood flow in an arterial tree is predictable from its sum of arterial branch lengths or lumen volume. Using a computer model of a porcine coronary artery tree, an analysis of blood flow distribution was conducted through a network of millions of vessels that included the entire coronary artery tree down to the first capillary branch. The flow simulation results show that there is a linear relationship between coronary blood flow and the sum of its arterial branch lengths. This relationship holds over the entire arterial tree. The flow simulation results also indicate that there is a 3/4 er relation between coronary blood flow (Q) and the sum of its arterial lumen volume (V). Moreover, there is a linear relationship between normalized Q and normalized V raised to a power of 3/4 over the entire arterial tree. These results indicate that measured arterial branch lengths or lumen volumes can be used to predict the expected maximum blood flow in an arterial tree. This theoretical maximum blood flow, in conjunction with an angiographically measured blood flow, can potentially be used to calculate fractional flow reserve based entirely on angiographic data

  14. Analysing the length of care episode after hip fracture: a nonparametric and a parametric Bayesian approach.

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    Riihimäki, Jaakko; Sund, Reijo; Vehtari, Aki

    2010-06-01

    Effective utilisation of limited resources is a challenge for health care providers. Accurate and relevant information extracted from the length of stay distributions is useful for management purposes. Patient care episodes can be reconstructed from the comprehensive health registers, and in this paper we develop a Bayesian approach to analyse the length of care episode after a fractured hip. We model the large scale data with a flexible nonparametric multilayer perceptron network and with a parametric Weibull mixture model. To assess the performances of the models, we estimate expected utilities using predictive density as a utility measure. Since the model parameters cannot be directly compared, we focus on observables, and estimate the relevances of patient explanatory variables in predicting the length of stay. To demonstrate how the use of the nonparametric flexible model is advantageous for this complex health care data, we also study joint effects of variables in predictions, and visualise nonlinearities and interactions found in the data.

  15. Entanglement-fidelity relations for inaccurate ancilla-driven quantum computation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morimae, Tomoyuki; Kahn, Jonas

    2010-01-01

    It was shown by T. Morimae [Phys. Rev. A 81, 060307(R) (2010)] that the gate fidelity of an inaccurate one-way quantum computation is upper bounded by a decreasing function of the amount of entanglement in the register. This means that a strong entanglement causes the low gate fidelity in the one-way quantum computation with inaccurate measurements. In this paper, we derive similar entanglement-fidelity relations for the inaccurate ancilla-driven quantum computation. These relations again imply that a strong entanglement in the register causes the low gate fidelity in the ancilla-driven quantum computation if the measurements on the ancilla are inaccurate.

  16. Phase Behavior of Blends of Linear and Branched Polyethylenes on Micron-Length Scales via Ultra-Small-Angle Neutron Scattering (USANS)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Agamalian, M.M.; Alamo, R.G.; Londono, J.D.; Mandelkern, L.; Wignall, G.D.

    1999-01-01

    SANS experiments on blends of linear, high density (HD) and long chain branched, low density (LD) polyethylenes indicate that these systems form a one-phase mixture in the melt. However, the maximum spatial resolution of pinhole cameras is approximately equal to 10 3 and it has therefore been suggested that data might also be interpreted as arising from a bi-phasic melt with large a particle size ( 1 m), because most of the scattering from the different phases would not be resolved. We have addressed this hypothesis by means of USANS experiments, which confirm that HDPEILDPE blends are homogenous in the melt on length scales up to 20 m. We have also studied blends of HDPE and short-chain branched linear low density polyethylenes (LLDPEs), which phase separate when the branch content is sufficiently high. LLDPEs prepared with Ziegler-Natta catalysts exhibit a wide distribution of compositions, and may therefore be thought of as a blend of different species. When the composition distribution is broad enough, a fraction of highly branched chains may phase separate on m-length scales, and USANS has also been used to quantify this phenomenon

  17. Probabilistic divergence time estimation without branch lengths: dating the origins of dinosaurs, avian flight and crown birds.

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    Lloyd, G T; Bapst, D W; Friedman, M; Davis, K E

    2016-11-01

    Branch lengths-measured in character changes-are an essential requirement of clock-based divergence estimation, regardless of whether the fossil calibrations used represent nodes or tips. However, a separate set of divergence time approaches are typically used to date palaeontological trees, which may lack such branch lengths. Among these methods, sophisticated probabilistic approaches have recently emerged, in contrast with simpler algorithms relying on minimum node ages. Here, using a novel phylogenetic hypothesis for Mesozoic dinosaurs, we apply two such approaches to estimate divergence times for: (i) Dinosauria, (ii) Avialae (the earliest birds) and (iii) Neornithes (crown birds). We find: (i) the plausibility of a Permian origin for dinosaurs to be dependent on whether Nyasasaurus is the oldest dinosaur, (ii) a Middle to Late Jurassic origin of avian flight regardless of whether Archaeopteryx or Aurornis is considered the first bird and (iii) a Late Cretaceous origin for Neornithes that is broadly congruent with other node- and tip-dating estimates. Demonstrating the feasibility of probabilistic time-scaling further opens up divergence estimation to the rich histories of extinct biodiversity in the fossil record, even in the absence of detailed character data. © 2016 The Authors.

  18. Sizing Up the Milky Way: A Bayesian Mixture Model Meta-analysis of Photometric Scale Length Measurements

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    Licquia, Timothy C.; Newman, Jeffrey A.

    2016-11-01

    The exponential scale length (L d ) of the Milky Way’s (MW’s) disk is a critical parameter for describing the global physical size of our Galaxy, important both for interpreting other Galactic measurements and helping us to understand how our Galaxy fits into extragalactic contexts. Unfortunately, current estimates span a wide range of values and are often statistically incompatible with one another. Here, we perform a Bayesian meta-analysis to determine an improved, aggregate estimate for L d , utilizing a mixture-model approach to account for the possibility that any one measurement has not properly accounted for all statistical or systematic errors. Within this machinery, we explore a variety of ways of modeling the nature of problematic measurements, and then employ a Bayesian model averaging technique to derive net posterior distributions that incorporate any model-selection uncertainty. Our meta-analysis combines 29 different (15 visible and 14 infrared) photometric measurements of L d available in the literature; these involve a broad assortment of observational data sets, MW models and assumptions, and methodologies, all tabulated herein. Analyzing the visible and infrared measurements separately yields estimates for L d of {2.71}-0.20+0.22 kpc and {2.51}-0.13+0.15 kpc, respectively, whereas considering them all combined yields 2.64 ± 0.13 kpc. The ratio between the visible and infrared scale lengths determined here is very similar to that measured in external spiral galaxies. We use these results to update the model of the Galactic disk from our previous work, constraining its stellar mass to be {4.8}-1.1+1.5× {10}10 M ⊙, and the MW’s total stellar mass to be {5.7}-1.1+1.5× {10}10 M ⊙.

  19. Bayesian models for comparative analysis integrating phylogenetic uncertainty

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    Villemereuil Pierre de

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Uncertainty in comparative analyses can come from at least two sources: a phylogenetic uncertainty in the tree topology or branch lengths, and b uncertainty due to intraspecific variation in trait values, either due to measurement error or natural individual variation. Most phylogenetic comparative methods do not account for such uncertainties. Not accounting for these sources of uncertainty leads to false perceptions of precision (confidence intervals will be too narrow and inflated significance in hypothesis testing (e.g. p-values will be too small. Although there is some application-specific software for fitting Bayesian models accounting for phylogenetic error, more general and flexible software is desirable. Methods We developed models to directly incorporate phylogenetic uncertainty into a range of analyses that biologists commonly perform, using a Bayesian framework and Markov Chain Monte Carlo analyses. Results We demonstrate applications in linear regression, quantification of phylogenetic signal, and measurement error models. Phylogenetic uncertainty was incorporated by applying a prior distribution for the phylogeny, where this distribution consisted of the posterior tree sets from Bayesian phylogenetic tree estimation programs. The models were analysed using simulated data sets, and applied to a real data set on plant traits, from rainforest plant species in Northern Australia. Analyses were performed using the free and open source software OpenBUGS and JAGS. Conclusions Incorporating phylogenetic uncertainty through an empirical prior distribution of trees leads to more precise estimation of regression model parameters than using a single consensus tree and enables a more realistic estimation of confidence intervals. In addition, models incorporating measurement errors and/or individual variation, in one or both variables, are easily formulated in the Bayesian framework. We show that BUGS is a useful, flexible

  20. Bayesian models for comparative analysis integrating phylogenetic uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Background Uncertainty in comparative analyses can come from at least two sources: a) phylogenetic uncertainty in the tree topology or branch lengths, and b) uncertainty due to intraspecific variation in trait values, either due to measurement error or natural individual variation. Most phylogenetic comparative methods do not account for such uncertainties. Not accounting for these sources of uncertainty leads to false perceptions of precision (confidence intervals will be too narrow) and inflated significance in hypothesis testing (e.g. p-values will be too small). Although there is some application-specific software for fitting Bayesian models accounting for phylogenetic error, more general and flexible software is desirable. Methods We developed models to directly incorporate phylogenetic uncertainty into a range of analyses that biologists commonly perform, using a Bayesian framework and Markov Chain Monte Carlo analyses. Results We demonstrate applications in linear regression, quantification of phylogenetic signal, and measurement error models. Phylogenetic uncertainty was incorporated by applying a prior distribution for the phylogeny, where this distribution consisted of the posterior tree sets from Bayesian phylogenetic tree estimation programs. The models were analysed using simulated data sets, and applied to a real data set on plant traits, from rainforest plant species in Northern Australia. Analyses were performed using the free and open source software OpenBUGS and JAGS. Conclusions Incorporating phylogenetic uncertainty through an empirical prior distribution of trees leads to more precise estimation of regression model parameters than using a single consensus tree and enables a more realistic estimation of confidence intervals. In addition, models incorporating measurement errors and/or individual variation, in one or both variables, are easily formulated in the Bayesian framework. We show that BUGS is a useful, flexible general purpose tool for

  1. Bayesian inference of genetic parameters on litter size and gestation length in Hungarian Landrace and Hungarian Large White pigs

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    Zoltán Csörnyei

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Genetic parameters of number of piglets born alive (NBA and gestation length (GL were analyzed for 39798 Hungarian Landrace (HLA, 141397 records and 70356 Hungarian Large White (HLW, 246961 records sows. Bivariate repeatability animal models were used, applying a Bayesian statistics. Estimated and heritabilitie repeatabilities (within brackets, were low for NBA, 0.07 (0.14 for HLA and 0.08 (0.17 for HLW, but somewhat higher for GL, 0.18 (0.27 for HLA and 0.26 (0.35 for HLW. Estimated genetic correlations between NBA and GL were low, -0.08 for HLA and -0.05 for HLW.

  2. Hierarchical Bayesian analysis to incorporate age uncertainty in growth curve analysis and estimates of age from length: Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus) carcasses

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    Schwarz, L.K.; Runge, M.C.

    2009-01-01

    Age estimation of individuals is often an integral part of species management research, and a number of ageestimation techniques are commonly employed. Often, the error in these techniques is not quantified or accounted for in other analyses, particularly in growth curve models used to describe physiological responses to environment and human impacts. Also, noninvasive, quick, and inexpensive methods to estimate age are needed. This research aims to provide two Bayesian methods to (i) incorporate age uncertainty into an age-length Schnute growth model and (ii) produce a method from the growth model to estimate age from length. The methods are then employed for Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus) carcasses. After quantifying the uncertainty in the aging technique (counts of ear bone growth layers), we fit age-length data to the Schnute growth model separately by sex and season. Independent prior information about population age structure and the results of the Schnute model are then combined to estimate age from length. Results describing the age-length relationship agree with our understanding of manatee biology. The new methods allow us to estimate age, with quantified uncertainty, for 98% of collected carcasses: 36% from ear bones, 62% from length.

  3. A functional-dependencies-based Bayesian networks learning method and its application in a mobile commerce system.

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    Liao, Stephen Shaoyi; Wang, Huai Qing; Li, Qiu Dan; Liu, Wei Yi

    2006-06-01

    This paper presents a new method for learning Bayesian networks from functional dependencies (FD) and third normal form (3NF) tables in relational databases. The method sets up a linkage between the theory of relational databases and probabilistic reasoning models, which is interesting and useful especially when data are incomplete and inaccurate. The effectiveness and practicability of the proposed method is demonstrated by its implementation in a mobile commerce system.

  4. Equivalent chain lengths of all C4-C23 saturated monomethyl branched fatty acid methyl esters on methylsilicone OV-1 stationary phase.

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    Kubinec, Róbert; Blaško, Jaroslav; Górová, Renáta; Addová, Gabriela; Ostrovský, Ivan; Amann, Anton; Soják, Ladislav

    2011-04-01

    Isomer mixtures of monomethyl branched saturated C7-C23 fatty acid methyl esters (FAME) were prepared by performing a methylene insertion reaction to the straight chain FAME and this study model was completed by using commercially available standards of C4-C7 FAME. The equivalent chain lengths (ECL) of all 220 C4-C23 monomethyl branched FAME on OV-1 stationary phase were measured, achieving an average repeatability of ±0.0004 ECL units. The monomethyl branched FAME was identified by GC on the basis of regularity of the fractional chain lengths (FCL) dependence on the number of carbon atoms (C(z)) of individual homologous series of methyl 2-, 3-, …, 21-FAME. The prediction of retention of the first homologues, having the new position of methyl group beginning at higher carbon atoms number, and analogously for the second, third, fourth, and other members of the homologous series, allowed the dependence FCL=f(C(z)) for the first and subsequent members of beginning homologous of monomethyl derivatives of FAME. The identification was confirmed by mass spectrometry. All of the methyl isomers of FAME, which could not be completely separated by gas chromatography due to having a methyl group in surroundings of the middle of the carbon chain, were resolved by mass spectrometry using deconvolution in a SIM-mode. Measured gas chromatographic and mass spectrometric data were applied for identification of the monomethyl branched saturated FAME in tongue coating. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Association between inaccurate estimation of body size and obesity in schoolchildren

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    Larissa da Cunha Feio Costa

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: To investigate the prevalence of inaccurate estimation of own body size among Brazilian schoolchildren of both sexes aged 7-10 years, and to test whether overweight/obesity; excess body fat and central obesity are associated with inaccuracy. Methods: Accuracy of body size estimation was assessed using the Figure Rating Scale for Brazilian Children. Multinomial logistic regression was used to analyze associations. Results: The overall prevalence of inaccurate body size estimation was 76%, with 34% of the children underestimating their body size and 42% overestimating their body size. Obesity measured by body mass index was associated with underestimation of body size in both sexes, while central obesity was only associated with overestimation of body size among girls. Conclusions: The results of this study suggest there is a high prevalence of inaccurate body size estimation and that inaccurate estimation is associated with obesity. Accurate estimation of own body size is important among obese schoolchildren because it may be the first step towards adopting healthy lifestyle behaviors.

  6. Estimation of post-test probabilities by residents: Bayesian reasoning versus heuristics?

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    Hall, Stacey; Phang, Sen Han; Schaefer, Jeffrey P; Ghali, William; Wright, Bruce; McLaughlin, Kevin

    2014-08-01

    Although the process of diagnosing invariably begins with a heuristic, we encourage our learners to support their diagnoses by analytical cognitive processes, such as Bayesian reasoning, in an attempt to mitigate the effects of heuristics on diagnosing. There are, however, limited data on the use ± impact of Bayesian reasoning on the accuracy of disease probability estimates. In this study our objective was to explore whether Internal Medicine residents use a Bayesian process to estimate disease probabilities by comparing their disease probability estimates to literature-derived Bayesian post-test probabilities. We gave 35 Internal Medicine residents four clinical vignettes in the form of a referral letter and asked them to estimate the post-test probability of the target condition in each case. We then compared these to literature-derived probabilities. For each vignette the estimated probability was significantly different from the literature-derived probability. For the two cases with low literature-derived probability our participants significantly overestimated the probability of these target conditions being the correct diagnosis, whereas for the two cases with high literature-derived probability the estimated probability was significantly lower than the calculated value. Our results suggest that residents generate inaccurate post-test probability estimates. Possible explanations for this include ineffective application of Bayesian reasoning, attribute substitution whereby a complex cognitive task is replaced by an easier one (e.g., a heuristic), or systematic rater bias, such as central tendency bias. Further studies are needed to identify the reasons for inaccuracy of disease probability estimates and to explore ways of improving accuracy.

  7. MATRIX-VECTOR ALGORITHMS OF LOCAL POSTERIORI INFERENCE IN ALGEBRAIC BAYESIAN NETWORKS ON QUANTA PROPOSITIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. A. Zolotin

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Posteriori inference is one of the three kinds of probabilistic-logic inferences in the probabilistic graphical models theory and the base for processing of knowledge patterns with probabilistic uncertainty using Bayesian networks. The paper deals with a task of local posteriori inference description in algebraic Bayesian networks that represent a class of probabilistic graphical models by means of matrix-vector equations. The latter are essentially based on the use of tensor product of matrices, Kronecker degree and Hadamard product. Matrix equations for calculating posteriori probabilities vectors within posteriori inference in knowledge patterns with quanta propositions are obtained. Similar equations of the same type have already been discussed within the confines of the theory of algebraic Bayesian networks, but they were built only for the case of posteriori inference in the knowledge patterns on the ideals of conjuncts. During synthesis and development of matrix-vector equations on quanta propositions probability vectors, a number of earlier results concerning normalizing factors in posteriori inference and assignment of linear projective operator with a selector vector was adapted. We consider all three types of incoming evidences - deterministic, stochastic and inaccurate - combined with scalar and interval estimation of probability truth of propositional formulas in the knowledge patterns. Linear programming problems are formed. Their solution gives the desired interval values of posterior probabilities in the case of inaccurate evidence or interval estimates in a knowledge pattern. That sort of description of a posteriori inference gives the possibility to extend the set of knowledge pattern types that we can use in the local and global posteriori inference, as well as simplify complex software implementation by use of existing third-party libraries, effectively supporting submission and processing of matrices and vectors when

  8. Quantification of branching in model three-arm star polyethylene

    KAUST Repository

    Ramachandran, Ramnath; Beaucage, Gregory B.; Rai, Durgesh K.; Lohse, David J.; Sun, Thomas; Tsou, Andy; Norman, Alexander Iain; Hadjichristidis, Nikolaos

    2012-01-01

    The versatility of a novel scaling approach in quantifying the structure of model well-defined 3-arm star polyethylene molecules is presented. Many commercial polyethylenes have long side branches, and the nature and quantity of these branches varies widely among the various forms. For instance, low-density polyethylene (LDPE) is typically a highly branched structure with broad distributions in branch content, branch lengths and branch generation (in hyperbranched structures). This makes it difficult to accurately quantify the structure and the inherent structure-property relationships. To overcome this drawback, model well-defined hydrogenated polybutadiene (HPB) structures have been synthesized via anionic polymerization and hydrogenation to serve as model analogues to long-chain branched polyethylene. In this article, model 3-arm star polyethylene molecules are quantified using the scaling approach. Along with the long-chain branch content in polyethylene, the approach also provides unique measurements of long-chain branch length and hyperbranch content. Such detailed description facilitates better understanding of the effect of branching on the physical properties of polyethylene. © 2012 American Chemical Society.

  9. Quantification of branching in model three-arm star polyethylene

    KAUST Repository

    Ramachandran, Ramnath

    2012-01-24

    The versatility of a novel scaling approach in quantifying the structure of model well-defined 3-arm star polyethylene molecules is presented. Many commercial polyethylenes have long side branches, and the nature and quantity of these branches varies widely among the various forms. For instance, low-density polyethylene (LDPE) is typically a highly branched structure with broad distributions in branch content, branch lengths and branch generation (in hyperbranched structures). This makes it difficult to accurately quantify the structure and the inherent structure-property relationships. To overcome this drawback, model well-defined hydrogenated polybutadiene (HPB) structures have been synthesized via anionic polymerization and hydrogenation to serve as model analogues to long-chain branched polyethylene. In this article, model 3-arm star polyethylene molecules are quantified using the scaling approach. Along with the long-chain branch content in polyethylene, the approach also provides unique measurements of long-chain branch length and hyperbranch content. Such detailed description facilitates better understanding of the effect of branching on the physical properties of polyethylene. © 2012 American Chemical Society.

  10. Bayesian inference for Hawkes processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Jakob Gulddahl

    The Hawkes process is a practically and theoretically important class of point processes, but parameter-estimation for such a process can pose various problems. In this paper we explore and compare two approaches to Bayesian inference. The first approach is based on the so-called conditional...... intensity function, while the second approach is based on an underlying clustering and branching structure in the Hawkes process. For practical use, MCMC (Markov chain Monte Carlo) methods are employed. The two approaches are compared numerically using three examples of the Hawkes process....

  11. Bayesian inference for Hawkes processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Jakob Gulddahl

    2013-01-01

    The Hawkes process is a practically and theoretically important class of point processes, but parameter-estimation for such a process can pose various problems. In this paper we explore and compare two approaches to Bayesian inference. The first approach is based on the so-called conditional...... intensity function, while the second approach is based on an underlying clustering and branching structure in the Hawkes process. For practical use, MCMC (Markov chain Monte Carlo) methods are employed. The two approaches are compared numerically using three examples of the Hawkes process....

  12. Bayesian network learning for natural hazard assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogel, Kristin

    2016-04-01

    Even though quite different in occurrence and consequences, from a modelling perspective many natural hazards share similar properties and challenges. Their complex nature as well as lacking knowledge about their driving forces and potential effects make their analysis demanding. On top of the uncertainty about the modelling framework, inaccurate or incomplete event observations and the intrinsic randomness of the natural phenomenon add up to different interacting layers of uncertainty, which require a careful handling. Thus, for reliable natural hazard assessments it is crucial not only to capture and quantify involved uncertainties, but also to express and communicate uncertainties in an intuitive way. Decision-makers, who often find it difficult to deal with uncertainties, might otherwise return to familiar (mostly deterministic) proceedings. In the scope of the DFG research training group „NatRiskChange" we apply the probabilistic framework of Bayesian networks for diverse natural hazard and vulnerability studies. The great potential of Bayesian networks was already shown in previous natural hazard assessments. Treating each model component as random variable, Bayesian networks aim at capturing the joint distribution of all considered variables. Hence, each conditional distribution of interest (e.g. the effect of precautionary measures on damage reduction) can be inferred. The (in-)dependencies between the considered variables can be learned purely data driven or be given by experts. Even a combination of both is possible. By translating the (in-)dependences into a graph structure, Bayesian networks provide direct insights into the workings of the system and allow to learn about the underlying processes. Besides numerous studies on the topic, learning Bayesian networks from real-world data remains challenging. In previous studies, e.g. on earthquake induced ground motion and flood damage assessments, we tackled the problems arising with continuous variables

  13. Leg mass characteristics of accurate and inaccurate kickers--an Australian football perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hart, Nicolas H; Nimphius, Sophia; Cochrane, Jodie L; Newton, Robert U

    2013-01-01

    Athletic profiling provides valuable information to sport scientists, assisting in the optimal design of strength and conditioning programmes. Understanding the influence these physical characteristics may have on the generation of kicking accuracy is advantageous. The aim of this study was to profile and compare the lower limb mass characteristics of accurate and inaccurate Australian footballers. Thirty-one players were recruited from the Western Australian Football League to perform ten drop punt kicks over 20 metres to a player target. Players were separated into accurate (n = 15) and inaccurate (n = 16) groups, with leg mass characteristics assessed using whole body dual energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) scans. Accurate kickers demonstrated significantly greater relative lean mass (P ≤ 0.004) and significantly lower relative fat mass (P ≤ 0.024) across all segments of the kicking and support limbs, while also exhibiting significantly higher intra-limb lean-to-fat mass ratios for all segments across both limbs (P ≤ 0.009). Inaccurate kickers also produced significantly larger asymmetries between limbs than accurate kickers (P ≤ 0.028), showing considerably lower lean mass in their support leg. These results illustrate a difference in leg mass characteristics between accurate and inaccurate kickers, highlighting the potential influence these may have on technical proficiency of the drop punt.

  14. BranchAnalysis2D/3D automates morphometry analyses of branching structures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srinivasan, Aditya; Muñoz-Estrada, Jesús; Bourgeois, Justin R; Nalwalk, Julia W; Pumiglia, Kevin M; Sheen, Volney L; Ferland, Russell J

    2018-01-15

    Morphometric analyses of biological features have become increasingly common in recent years with such analyses being subject to a large degree of observer bias, variability, and time consumption. While commercial software packages exist to perform these analyses, they are expensive, require extensive user training, and are usually dependent on the observer tracing the morphology. To address these issues, we have developed a broadly applicable, no-cost ImageJ plugin we call 'BranchAnalysis2D/3D', to perform morphometric analyses of structures with branching morphologies, such as neuronal dendritic spines, vascular morphology, and primary cilia. Our BranchAnalysis2D/3D algorithm allows for rapid quantification of the length and thickness of branching morphologies, independent of user tracing, in both 2D and 3D data sets. We validated the performance of BranchAnalysis2D/3D against pre-existing software packages using trained human observers and images from brain and retina. We found that the BranchAnalysis2D/3D algorithm outputs results similar to available software (i.e., Metamorph, AngioTool, Neurolucida), while allowing faster analysis times and unbiased quantification. BranchAnalysis2D/3D allows inexperienced observers to output results like a trained observer but more efficiently, thereby increasing the consistency, speed, and reliability of morphometric analyses. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Dissecting Genetic Network of Fruit Branch Traits in Upland Cotton by Association Mapping Using SSR Markers.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yongjun Mei

    Full Text Available Genetic architecture of branch traits has large influences on the morphological structure, photosynthetic capacity, planting density, and yield of Upland cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.. This research aims to reveal the genetic effects of six branch traits, including bottom fruit branch node number (BFBNN, bottom fruit branch length (BFBL, middle fruit branch node number (MFBNN, middle fruit branch length (MFBL, upper fruit branch node number (UFBNN, and upper fruit branch length (UFBL. Association mapping was conducted for these traits of 39 lines and their 178 F1 hybrids in three environments. There were 20 highly significant Quantitative Trait SSRs (QTSs detected by mixed linear model approach analyzing a full genetic model with genetic effects of additive, dominance, epistasis and their environment interaction. The phenotypic variation explained by genetic effects ranged from 32.64 ~ 91.61%, suggesting these branch traits largely influenced by genetic factors.

  16. The impact of precise robotic lesion length measurement on stent length selection: ramifications for stent savings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, Paul T; Kruse, Kevin R; Kroll, Christopher R; Patterson, Janet Y; Esposito, Michele J

    2015-09-01

    Coronary stent deployment outcomes can be negatively impacted by inaccurate lesion measurement and inappropriate stent length selection (SLS). We compared visual estimate of these parameters to those provided by the CorPath 200® Robotic PCI System. Sixty consecutive patients who underwent coronary stent placement utilizing the CorPath System were evaluated. The treating physician assessed orthogonal images and provided visual estimates of lesion length and SLS. The robotic system was then used for the same measures. SLS was considered to be accurate when visual estimate and robotic measures were in agreement. Visual estimate SLSs were considered to be "short" or "long" if they were below or above the robotic-selected stents, respectively. Only 35% (21/60) of visually estimated lesions resulted in accurate SLS, whereas 33% (20/60) and 32% (19/60) of the visually estimated SLSs were long and short, respectively. In 5 cases (8.3%), 1 less stent was placed based on the robotic lesion measurement being shorter than the visual estimate. Visual estimate assessment of lesion length and SLS is highly variable with 65% of the cases being inaccurately measured when compared to objective measures obtained from the robotic system. The 32% of the cases where lesions were visually estimated to be short represents cases that often require the use of extra stents after the full lesion is not covered by 1 stent [longitudinal geographic miss (LGM)]. Further, these data showed that the use of the robotic system prevented the use of extra stents in 8.3% of the cases. Measurement of lesions with robotic PCI may reduce measurement errors, need for extra stents, and LGM. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Tracheobronchial Branching Anomalies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hong, Min Ji; Kim, Young Tong; Jou, Sung Shick; Park, A Young

    2010-01-01

    There are various congenital anomalies with respect to the number, length, diameter, and location of tracheobronchial branching patterns. The tracheobronchial anomalies are classified into two groups. The first one, anomalies of division, includes tracheal bronchus, cardiac bronchus, tracheal diverticulum, pulmonary isomerism, and minor variations. The second one, dysmorphic lung, includes lung agenesis-hypoplasia complex and lobar agenesis-aplasia complex

  18. Tracheobronchial Branching Anomalies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hong, Min Ji; Kim, Young Tong; Jou, Sung Shick [Soonchunhyang University, Cheonan Hospital, Cheonan (Korea, Republic of); Park, A Young [Soonchunhyang University College of Medicine, Asan (Korea, Republic of)

    2010-04-15

    There are various congenital anomalies with respect to the number, length, diameter, and location of tracheobronchial branching patterns. The tracheobronchial anomalies are classified into two groups. The first one, anomalies of division, includes tracheal bronchus, cardiac bronchus, tracheal diverticulum, pulmonary isomerism, and minor variations. The second one, dysmorphic lung, includes lung agenesis-hypoplasia complex and lobar agenesis-aplasia complex

  19. The Coin Problem  and Pseudorandomness for Branching Programs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brody, Joshua; Verbin, Elad

    2010-01-01

    in the model of emph{read-once width-$w$ branching programs}. We prove that in order to succeed in this model, $beta$ must be at least $1/ (log n)^{Theta(w)}$. For constant $w$ this is tight by considering the recursive tribes function, and for other values of $w$ this is nearly tight by considering other read...... be distinguished by small-width read-once branching programs. We suggest one application for this kind of theorems: we prove that Nisan's Generator fools width-$w$ read-once emph{regular} branching programs, using seed length $O(w^4 log n log log n + log n log (1/eps))$. For $w=eps=Theta(1)$, this seed length...

  20. All solid-state polymer electrolytes prepared from a hyper-branched graft polymer using atom transfer radical polymerization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Higa, Mitsuru; Fujino, Yukiko; Koumoto, Taihei; Kitani, Ryousuke; Egashira, Satsuki

    2005-01-01

    We propose an all solid-state (liquid free) polymer electrolyte (SPE) prepared from a hyper-branched graft copolymer. The graft copolymer consisting of a poly(methyl methacrylate) main chain and poly(ethylene glycol) methyl ether methacrylate side chains was synthesized by atom transfer radical polymerization changing the average chain distance between side chains, side chain length and branched chain length of the proposed structure of the graft copolymer. The ionic conductivity of the SPEs increases with increasing the side chain length, branched chain length and/or average distance between the side chains. The ionic conductivity of the SPE prepared from POEM 9 whose POEM content = 51 wt% shows 2 x 10 -5 S/cm at 30 deg. C. The tensile strength of the SPEs decreases with increases the side chain length, branched chain length and/or average distance between the side chains. These results indicate that a SPE prepared from the hyper-branched graft copolymer has potential to be applied to an all-solid polymer electrolyte

  1. Inverting reflections using full-waveform inversion with inaccurate starting models

    KAUST Repository

    AlTheyab, Abdullah; Schuster, Gerard T.

    2015-01-01

    We present a method for inverting seismic reflections using full-waveform inversion (FWI) with inaccurate starting models. For a layered medium, near-offset reflections (with zero angle of incidence) are unlikely to be cycle-skipped regardless

  2. Bayesian energy landscape tilting: towards concordant models of molecular ensembles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beauchamp, Kyle A; Pande, Vijay S; Das, Rhiju

    2014-03-18

    Predicting biological structure has remained challenging for systems such as disordered proteins that take on myriad conformations. Hybrid simulation/experiment strategies have been undermined by difficulties in evaluating errors from computational model inaccuracies and data uncertainties. Building on recent proposals from maximum entropy theory and nonequilibrium thermodynamics, we address these issues through a Bayesian energy landscape tilting (BELT) scheme for computing Bayesian hyperensembles over conformational ensembles. BELT uses Markov chain Monte Carlo to directly sample maximum-entropy conformational ensembles consistent with a set of input experimental observables. To test this framework, we apply BELT to model trialanine, starting from disagreeing simulations with the force fields ff96, ff99, ff99sbnmr-ildn, CHARMM27, and OPLS-AA. BELT incorporation of limited chemical shift and (3)J measurements gives convergent values of the peptide's α, β, and PPII conformational populations in all cases. As a test of predictive power, all five BELT hyperensembles recover set-aside measurements not used in the fitting and report accurate errors, even when starting from highly inaccurate simulations. BELT's principled framework thus enables practical predictions for complex biomolecular systems from discordant simulations and sparse data. Copyright © 2014 Biophysical Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Inferring the most probable maps of underground utilities using Bayesian mapping model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bilal, Muhammad; Khan, Wasiq; Muggleton, Jennifer; Rustighi, Emiliano; Jenks, Hugo; Pennock, Steve R.; Atkins, Phil R.; Cohn, Anthony

    2018-03-01

    Mapping the Underworld (MTU), a major initiative in the UK, is focused on addressing social, environmental and economic consequences raised from the inability to locate buried underground utilities (such as pipes and cables) by developing a multi-sensor mobile device. The aim of MTU device is to locate different types of buried assets in real time with the use of automated data processing techniques and statutory records. The statutory records, even though typically being inaccurate and incomplete, provide useful prior information on what is buried under the ground and where. However, the integration of information from multiple sensors (raw data) with these qualitative maps and their visualization is challenging and requires the implementation of robust machine learning/data fusion approaches. An approach for automated creation of revised maps was developed as a Bayesian Mapping model in this paper by integrating the knowledge extracted from sensors raw data and available statutory records. The combination of statutory records with the hypotheses from sensors was for initial estimation of what might be found underground and roughly where. The maps were (re)constructed using automated image segmentation techniques for hypotheses extraction and Bayesian classification techniques for segment-manhole connections. The model consisting of image segmentation algorithm and various Bayesian classification techniques (segment recognition and expectation maximization (EM) algorithm) provided robust performance on various simulated as well as real sites in terms of predicting linear/non-linear segments and constructing refined 2D/3D maps.

  4. Experimental study on flow-induced acoustic resonance in square closed side branch

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Hui; Gu Hanyang; Liu Xiaojing; Zhang Kai; Xie Yongcheng; Zu Hongbiao

    2014-01-01

    Flow-induced acoustic resonance is a phenomenon caused by the interaction of flow and acoustic fields in special structure. Acoustic resonance characteristic experiments were carried out on square closed side branch. The influences of the velocity in main pipe and the length of the side branch on acoustic resonance were studied. The range of occurrence and characteristics of pressure pulsation were analyzed. Three lengths of side branches (L/d=5.6 and 7) were experimentally studied and the Reynolds number in the experiment was 2.74 X 10 4 -2.429 X 10 5 while the Mach number was 0.025-0.218. The results show that the resonance frequency shows a lock-in phenomenon with the increase of velocity. As the length of the side branch increasing, the amplitude of the acoustic pressure and the resonance frequency decrease. In the considered structure, the acoustic resonance occurs when Strouhal number is 0.3-0.6 and 0.7-1.0. (authors)

  5. The influence of flexible branches in flexible polymers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wescott, J.T.

    1998-06-01

    In this work the influence of branches in flexible polymer systems has been investigated by consideration of (1) the behaviour of isolated poly-α-olefin chains and (2) the p -T phase behaviour of poly(4-methylpentene-1)(P4MP1). Molecular dynamics simulations of isolated poly-α-olefins were performed in order to gauge directly the effect of molecular structure on chain dimensions, flexibility (via the persistence length) and shape. Under Θ-conditions the addition of short linear branches was shown to increase the flexibility of the backbone. In conditions of good solvent, however, the effect of longer and bulkier branches was to increase the persistence length and average size of the coil with the arrangement of side chain atoms making a small difference. The side branches themselves also affected the solvent conditions experienced by the backbone, behaving much like bound solvent. Consideration of ethylene-α-olefin copolymers, where the branch content was varied from 0-50%, showed that under good solvent conditions the branches increased the chain stiffness only when the gap between side branches was less than five backbone carbon atoms. The backbone torsions were also shown to play an important role in determining these trends. For comparison with the above simulations, persistence length values for polyethylene (= 7.3±0.2A) and P4MP1 (=7.6±0.3A) were measured experimentally by neutron scattering in dilute solution. A value of 6.7±0.5 for the characteristic ratio of PE was also calculated. To investigate the role of a bulky side group in crystalline phases, wide angle X-ray diffraction experiments using a Hikosaka pressure cell were performed on P4MP1. Computer modelling, utilising the experimental data obtained, determined the structure of a disordered phase produced at room temperature and a new high pressure/high temperature phase. The disordered phase was found to be due to a collapse of the backbone combined with some disordering of the side chains

  6. Prediction and assimilation of surf-zone processes using a Bayesian network: Part I: Forward models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plant, Nathaniel G.; Holland, K. Todd

    2011-01-01

    Prediction of coastal processes, including waves, currents, and sediment transport, can be obtained from a variety of detailed geophysical-process models with many simulations showing significant skill. This capability supports a wide range of research and applied efforts that can benefit from accurate numerical predictions. However, the predictions are only as accurate as the data used to drive the models and, given the large temporal and spatial variability of the surf zone, inaccuracies in data are unavoidable such that useful predictions require corresponding estimates of uncertainty. We demonstrate how a Bayesian-network model can be used to provide accurate predictions of wave-height evolution in the surf zone given very sparse and/or inaccurate boundary-condition data. The approach is based on a formal treatment of a data-assimilation problem that takes advantage of significant reduction of the dimensionality of the model system. We demonstrate that predictions of a detailed geophysical model of the wave evolution are reproduced accurately using a Bayesian approach. In this surf-zone application, forward prediction skill was 83%, and uncertainties in the model inputs were accurately transferred to uncertainty in output variables. We also demonstrate that if modeling uncertainties were not conveyed to the Bayesian network (i.e., perfect data or model were assumed), then overly optimistic prediction uncertainties were computed. More consistent predictions and uncertainties were obtained by including model-parameter errors as a source of input uncertainty. Improved predictions (skill of 90%) were achieved because the Bayesian network simultaneously estimated optimal parameters while predicting wave heights.

  7. Randomized branch sampling to estimatefruit production in Pecan trees cv. ‘Barton’

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Filemom Manoel Mokochinski

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT: Sampling techniques to quantify the production of fruits are still very scarce and create a gap in crop development research. This study was conducted in a rural property in the county of Cachoeira do Sul - RS to estimate the efficiency of randomized branch sampling (RBS in quantifying the production of pecan fruit at three different ages (5,7 and 10 years. Two selection techniques were tested: the probability proportional to the diameter (PPD and the uniform probability (UP techniques, which were performed on nine trees, three from each age and randomly chosen. The RBS underestimated fruit production for all ages, and its main drawback was the high sampling error (125.17% - PPD and 111.04% - UP. The UP was regarded as more efficient than the PPD, though both techniques estimated similar production and similar experimental errors. In conclusion, we reported that branch sampling was inaccurate for this case study, requiring new studies to produce estimates with smaller sampling error.

  8. Bayesian methods for hackers probabilistic programming and Bayesian inference

    CERN Document Server

    Davidson-Pilon, Cameron

    2016-01-01

    Bayesian methods of inference are deeply natural and extremely powerful. However, most discussions of Bayesian inference rely on intensely complex mathematical analyses and artificial examples, making it inaccessible to anyone without a strong mathematical background. Now, though, Cameron Davidson-Pilon introduces Bayesian inference from a computational perspective, bridging theory to practice–freeing you to get results using computing power. Bayesian Methods for Hackers illuminates Bayesian inference through probabilistic programming with the powerful PyMC language and the closely related Python tools NumPy, SciPy, and Matplotlib. Using this approach, you can reach effective solutions in small increments, without extensive mathematical intervention. Davidson-Pilon begins by introducing the concepts underlying Bayesian inference, comparing it with other techniques and guiding you through building and training your first Bayesian model. Next, he introduces PyMC through a series of detailed examples a...

  9. A BAYESIAN APPROACH TO LOCATING THE RED GIANT BRANCH TIP MAGNITUDE. II. DISTANCES TO THE SATELLITES OF M31

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Conn, A. R.; Parker, Q. A.; Zucker, D. B. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Macquarie University, NSW 2109 (Australia); Ibata, R. A.; Martin, N. F. [Observatoire Astronomique, Universite de Strasbourg, CNRS, F-67000 Strasbourg (France); Lewis, G. F. [Sydney Institute for Astronomy, School of Physics, A28, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006 (Australia); McConnachie, A. W. [NRC Herzberg Institute of Astrophysics, 5071 West Saanich Road, Victoria, British Columbia V9E 2E7 (Canada); Irwin, M. J.; Chapman, S. C. [Institute of Astronomy, University of Cambridge, Madingley Road, Cambridge CB3 0HA (United Kingdom); Tanvir, N. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Leicester, Leicester LE1 7RH (United Kingdom); Fardal, M. A. [University of Massachusetts, Department of Astronomy, LGRT 619-E, 710 N. Pleasant Street, Amherst, MA 01003-9305 (United States); Ferguson, A. M. N. [Institute for Astronomy, University of Edinburgh, Royal Observatory, Blackford Hill, Edinburgh EH9 3HJ (United Kingdom); Valls-Gabaud, D. [Observatoire de Paris, LERMA, 61 Avenue de l' Observatoire, F-75014 Paris (France)

    2012-10-10

    In 'A Bayesian Approach to Locating the Red Giant Branch Tip Magnitude (Part I)', a new technique was introduced for obtaining distances using the tip of the red giant branch (TRGB) standard candle. Here we describe a useful complement to the technique with the potential to further reduce the uncertainty in our distance measurements by incorporating a matched-filter weighting scheme into the model likelihood calculations. In this scheme, stars are weighted according to their probability of being true object members. We then re-test our modified algorithm using random-realization artificial data to verify the validity of the generated posterior probability distributions (PPDs) and proceed to apply the algorithm to the satellite system of M31, culminating in a three-dimensional view of the system. Further to the distributions thus obtained, we apply a satellite-specific prior on the satellite distances to weight the resulting distance posterior distributions, based on the halo density profile. Thus in a single publication, using a single method, a comprehensive coverage of the distances to the companion galaxies of M31 is presented, encompassing the dwarf spheroidals Andromedas I-III, V, IX-XXVII, and XXX along with NGC 147, NGC 185, M33, and M31 itself. Of these, the distances to Andromedas XXIV-XXVII and Andromeda XXX have never before been derived using the TRGB. Object distances are determined from high-resolution tip magnitude posterior distributions generated using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique and associated sampling of these distributions to take into account uncertainties in foreground extinction and the absolute magnitude of the TRGB as well as photometric errors. The distance PPDs obtained for each object both with and without the aforementioned prior are made available to the reader in tabular form. The large object coverage takes advantage of the unprecedented size and photometric depth of the Pan-Andromeda Archaeological Survey

  10. OsRAMOSA2 Shapes Panicle Architecture through Regulating Pedicel Length

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huan Lu

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The panicle architecture of rice is an important characteristic that influences reproductive success and yield. It is largely determined by the number and length of the primary and secondary branches. The number of panicle branches is defined by the inflorescence meristem state between determinacy and indeterminacy; for example, the maize ramosa2 (ra2 mutant has more branches in its tassel through loss of spikelet determinacy. Some genes and factors influencing the number of primary and secondary branches have been studied, but little is known about the molecular mechanism underlying pedicel development, which also influences panicle architecture. We report here that rice OsRAMOSA2 (OsRA2 gene modifies panicle architecture through regulating pedicel length. Ectopic expression of OsRA2 resulted in a shortened pedicel while inhibition of OsRA2 through RNA interference produced elongated pedicel. In addition, OsRA2 influenced seed morphology. The OsRA2 protein localized to the nucleus and showed transcriptional activation in yeast; in accordance with its function in pedicel development, OsRA2 mRNA was enriched in the anlagen of axillary meristems, such as primary and secondary branch meristems and the spikelet meristems of young panicles. This indicates a conserved role of OsRA2 for shaping the initial steps of inflorescence architecture. Genetic analysis revealed that OsRA2 may control panicle architecture using the same pathway as that of the axillary meristem gene LAX1 (LAX PANICLE1. Moreover, OsRA2 acted downstream of RCN2 in regulating pedicel and branch lengths, but upstream of RCN2 for control of the number of secondary branches, indicating that branch number and length development in the panicle were respectively regulated using parallel pathway. Functional conservation between OsRA2 and AtLOB, and the conservation and diversification of RA2 in maize and rice are also discussed.

  11. Bayesian genomic selection: the effect of haplotype lenghts and priors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Villumsen, Trine Michelle; Janss, Luc

    2009-01-01

    Breeding values for animals with marker data are estimated using a genomic selection approach where data is analyzed using Bayesian multi-marker association models. Fourteen model scenarios with varying haplotype lengths, hyper parameter and prior distributions were compared to find the scenario ...

  12. BAYESIAN MAGNETOHYDRODYNAMIC SEISMOLOGY OF CORONAL LOOPS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arregui, I.; Asensio Ramos, A.

    2011-01-01

    We perform a Bayesian parameter inference in the context of resonantly damped transverse coronal loop oscillations. The forward problem is solved in terms of parametric results for kink waves in one-dimensional flux tubes in the thin tube and thin boundary approximations. For the inverse problem, we adopt a Bayesian approach to infer the most probable values of the relevant parameters, for given observed periods and damping times, and to extract their confidence levels. The posterior probability distribution functions are obtained by means of Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulations, incorporating observed uncertainties in a consistent manner. We find well-localized solutions in the posterior probability distribution functions for two of the three parameters of interest, namely the Alfven travel time and the transverse inhomogeneity length scale. The obtained estimates for the Alfven travel time are consistent with previous inversion results, but the method enables us to additionally constrain the transverse inhomogeneity length scale and to estimate real error bars for each parameter. When observational estimates for the density contrast are used, the method enables us to fully constrain the three parameters of interest. These results can serve to improve our current estimates of unknown physical parameters in coronal loops and to test the assumed theoretical model.

  13. Theoretical red-giant branches for globular clusters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    VandenBerg, D.A.

    1984-01-01

    The authors reports computations of stellar evolutionary sequences from the base of the red-giant branch to the helium flash. Representative models with masses in the range of 0.8 to 0.9 solar masses were selected in order that the stars on the giant branches had ages of approximately 16 billion yr. Initial numerical experiments indicated that a value of α = 1.6 for the ratio of the mixing length to the pressure scale height was needed to provide the best of the Z = 0.0001 model sequence with the observations of M92. Sequences for the other assumed metallicities, Z = 0.0003, 0.001, 0.003, and 0.006, were then computed for the same value of the mixing-length parameter and overlayed directly on the observations. (Auth.)

  14. A Bayesian Supertree Model for Genome-Wide Species Tree Reconstruction

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Oliveira Martins, Leonardo; Mallo, Diego; Posada, David

    2016-01-01

    Current phylogenomic data sets highlight the need for species tree methods able to deal with several sources of gene tree/species tree incongruence. At the same time, we need to make most use of all available data. Most species tree methods deal with single processes of phylogenetic discordance, namely, gene duplication and loss, incomplete lineage sorting (ILS) or horizontal gene transfer. In this manuscript, we address the problem of species tree inference from multilocus, genome-wide data sets regardless of the presence of gene duplication and loss and ILS therefore without the need to identify orthologs or to use a single individual per species. We do this by extending the idea of Maximum Likelihood (ML) supertrees to a hierarchical Bayesian model where several sources of gene tree/species tree disagreement can be accounted for in a modular manner. We implemented this model in a computer program called guenomu whose inputs are posterior distributions of unrooted gene tree topologies for multiple gene families, and whose output is the posterior distribution of rooted species tree topologies. We conducted extensive simulations to evaluate the performance of our approach in comparison with other species tree approaches able to deal with more than one leaf from the same species. Our method ranked best under simulated data sets, in spite of ignoring branch lengths, and performed well on empirical data, as well as being fast enough to analyze relatively large data sets. Our Bayesian supertree method was also very successful in obtaining better estimates of gene trees, by reducing the uncertainty in their distributions. In addition, our results show that under complex simulation scenarios, gene tree parsimony is also a competitive approach once we consider its speed, in contrast to more sophisticated models. PMID:25281847

  15. A Bayesian Supertree Model for Genome-Wide Species Tree Reconstruction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Oliveira Martins, Leonardo; Mallo, Diego; Posada, David

    2016-05-01

    Current phylogenomic data sets highlight the need for species tree methods able to deal with several sources of gene tree/species tree incongruence. At the same time, we need to make most use of all available data. Most species tree methods deal with single processes of phylogenetic discordance, namely, gene duplication and loss, incomplete lineage sorting (ILS) or horizontal gene transfer. In this manuscript, we address the problem of species tree inference from multilocus, genome-wide data sets regardless of the presence of gene duplication and loss and ILS therefore without the need to identify orthologs or to use a single individual per species. We do this by extending the idea of Maximum Likelihood (ML) supertrees to a hierarchical Bayesian model where several sources of gene tree/species tree disagreement can be accounted for in a modular manner. We implemented this model in a computer program called guenomu whose inputs are posterior distributions of unrooted gene tree topologies for multiple gene families, and whose output is the posterior distribution of rooted species tree topologies. We conducted extensive simulations to evaluate the performance of our approach in comparison with other species tree approaches able to deal with more than one leaf from the same species. Our method ranked best under simulated data sets, in spite of ignoring branch lengths, and performed well on empirical data, as well as being fast enough to analyze relatively large data sets. Our Bayesian supertree method was also very successful in obtaining better estimates of gene trees, by reducing the uncertainty in their distributions. In addition, our results show that under complex simulation scenarios, gene tree parsimony is also a competitive approach once we consider its speed, in contrast to more sophisticated models. © The Author(s) 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Systematic Biologists.

  16. Inverting reflections using full-waveform inversion with inaccurate starting models

    KAUST Repository

    AlTheyab, Abdullah

    2015-08-19

    We present a method for inverting seismic reflections using full-waveform inversion (FWI) with inaccurate starting models. For a layered medium, near-offset reflections (with zero angle of incidence) are unlikely to be cycle-skipped regardless of the low-wavenumber velocity error in the initial models. Therefore, we use them as a starting point for FWI, and the subsurface velocity model is then updated during the FWI iterations using reflection wavepaths from varying offsets that are not cycle-skipped. To enhance low-wavenumber updates and accelerate the convergence, we take several passes through the non-linear Gauss-Seidel iterations, where we invert traces from a narrow range of near offsets and finally end at the far offsets. Every pass is followed by applying smoothing to the cumulative slowness update. The smoothing is strong at the early stages and relaxed at later iterations to allow for a gradual reconstruction of the subsurface model in a multiscale manner. Applications to synthetic and field data, starting from inaccurate models, show significant low-wavenumber updates and flattening of common-image gathers after many iterations.

  17. Bayesian artificial intelligence

    CERN Document Server

    Korb, Kevin B

    2010-01-01

    Updated and expanded, Bayesian Artificial Intelligence, Second Edition provides a practical and accessible introduction to the main concepts, foundation, and applications of Bayesian networks. It focuses on both the causal discovery of networks and Bayesian inference procedures. Adopting a causal interpretation of Bayesian networks, the authors discuss the use of Bayesian networks for causal modeling. They also draw on their own applied research to illustrate various applications of the technology.New to the Second EditionNew chapter on Bayesian network classifiersNew section on object-oriente

  18. A non-convex variational approach to photometric stereo under inaccurate lighting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Quéau, Yvain; Wu, Tao; Lauze, Francois Bernard

    2017-01-01

    This paper tackles the photometric stereo problem in the presence of inaccurate lighting, obtained either by calibration or by an uncalibrated photometric stereo method. Based on a precise modeling of noise and outliers, a robust variational approach is introduced. It explicitly accounts for self...

  19. Bayesian outcome-based strategy classification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Michael D

    2016-03-01

    Hilbig and Moshagen (Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 21, 1431-1443, 2014) recently developed a method for making inferences about the decision processes people use in multi-attribute forced choice tasks. Their paper makes a number of worthwhile theoretical and methodological contributions. Theoretically, they provide an insightful psychological motivation for a probabilistic extension of the widely-used "weighted additive" (WADD) model, and show how this model, as well as other important models like "take-the-best" (TTB), can and should be expressed in terms of meaningful priors. Methodologically, they develop an inference approach based on the Minimum Description Length (MDL) principles that balances both the goodness-of-fit and complexity of the decision models they consider. This paper aims to preserve these useful contributions, but provide a complementary Bayesian approach with some theoretical and methodological advantages. We develop a simple graphical model, implemented in JAGS, that allows for fully Bayesian inferences about which models people use to make decisions. To demonstrate the Bayesian approach, we apply it to the models and data considered by Hilbig and Moshagen (Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 21, 1431-1443, 2014), showing how a prior predictive analysis of the models, and posterior inferences about which models people use and the parameter settings at which they use them, can contribute to our understanding of human decision making.

  20. Bayesian Graphical Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Finn Verner; Nielsen, Thomas Dyhre

    2016-01-01

    Mathematically, a Bayesian graphical model is a compact representation of the joint probability distribution for a set of variables. The most frequently used type of Bayesian graphical models are Bayesian networks. The structural part of a Bayesian graphical model is a graph consisting of nodes...

  1. Bayesian artificial intelligence

    CERN Document Server

    Korb, Kevin B

    2003-01-01

    As the power of Bayesian techniques has become more fully realized, the field of artificial intelligence has embraced Bayesian methodology and integrated it to the point where an introduction to Bayesian techniques is now a core course in many computer science programs. Unlike other books on the subject, Bayesian Artificial Intelligence keeps mathematical detail to a minimum and covers a broad range of topics. The authors integrate all of Bayesian net technology and learning Bayesian net technology and apply them both to knowledge engineering. They emphasize understanding and intuition but also provide the algorithms and technical background needed for applications. Software, exercises, and solutions are available on the authors' website.

  2. Disentangling Complexity in Bayesian Automatic Adaptive Quadrature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adam, Gheorghe; Adam, Sanda

    2018-02-01

    The paper describes a Bayesian automatic adaptive quadrature (BAAQ) solution for numerical integration which is simultaneously robust, reliable, and efficient. Detailed discussion is provided of three main factors which contribute to the enhancement of these features: (1) refinement of the m-panel automatic adaptive scheme through the use of integration-domain-length-scale-adapted quadrature sums; (2) fast early problem complexity assessment - enables the non-transitive choice among three execution paths: (i) immediate termination (exceptional cases); (ii) pessimistic - involves time and resource consuming Bayesian inference resulting in radical reformulation of the problem to be solved; (iii) optimistic - asks exclusively for subrange subdivision by bisection; (3) use of the weaker accuracy target from the two possible ones (the input accuracy specifications and the intrinsic integrand properties respectively) - results in maximum possible solution accuracy under minimum possible computing time.

  3. Endoscopic Localization of Colon Cancer Is Frequently Inaccurate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nayor, Jennifer; Rotman, Stephen R; Chan, Walter W; Goldberg, Joel E; Saltzman, John R

    2017-08-01

    Colonoscopic location of a tumor can influence both the surgical procedure choice and overall treatment strategy. To determine the accuracy of colonoscopy in determining the location of colon cancer compared to surgical localization and to elucidate factors that predict discordant colon cancer localization. We conducted a retrospective cross-sectional study of colon cancers diagnosed on colonoscopy at two academic tertiary-care hospitals and two affiliated community hospitals from 2012 to 2014. Colon cancer location was obtained from the endoscopic and surgical pathology reports and characterized by colon segment. We collected data on patient demographics, tumor characteristics, endoscopic procedure characteristics, surgery planned, and surgery performed. Univariate analyses using Chi-squared test and multivariate analysis using forward stepwise logistic regression were performed to determine factors that predict discordant colon cancer localization. There were 110 colon cancer cases identified during the study period. Inaccurate endoscopic colon cancer localization was found in 29% (32/110) of cases. These included 14 cases (12.7%) that were discordant by more than one colonic segment and three cases where the presurgical planned procedure was significantly changed at the time of surgery. On univariate analyses, right-sided colon lesions were associated with increased inaccuracy (43.8 vs 24.4%, p = 0.04). On multivariate analysis, right-sided colon lesions remained independently associated with inaccuracy (OR 1.74, 95% CI 1.03-2.93, p = 0.04). Colon cancer location as determined by colonoscopy is often inaccurate, which can result in intraoperative changes to surgical management, particularly in the right colon.

  4. Properties of Confined Star-Branched and Linear Chains. A Monte Carlo Simulation Study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Romiszowski, P.; Sikorski, A.

    2004-01-01

    A model of linear and star-branched polymer chains confined between two parallel and impenetrable surfaces was built. The polymer chains were restricted to a simple cubic lattice. Two macromolecular architectures of the chain: linear and star branched (consisted of f = 3 branches of equal length) were studied. The excluded volume was the only potential introduced into the model (the athermal system). Monte Carlo simulations were carried out using a sampling algorithm based on chain's local changes of conformation. The simulations were carried out at different confinement conditions: from light to high chain's compression. The scaling of chain's size with the chain length was studied and discussed. The influence of the confinement and the macromolecular architecture on the shape of a chain was studied. The differences in the shape of linear and star-branched chains were pointed out. (author)

  5. A Robust Obstacle Avoidance for Service Robot Using Bayesian Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Widodo Budiharto

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to propose a robust obstacle avoidance method for service robot in indoor environment. The method for obstacles avoidance uses information about static obstacles on the landmark using edge detection. Speed and direction of people that walks as moving obstacle obtained by single camera using tracking and recognition system and distance measurement using 3 ultrasonic sensors. A new geometrical model and maneuvering method for moving obstacle avoidance introduced and combined with Bayesian approach for state estimation. The obstacle avoidance problem is formulated using decision theory, prior and posterior distribution and loss function to determine an optimal response based on inaccurate sensor data. Algorithms for moving obstacles avoidance method proposed and experiment results implemented to service robot also presented. Various experiments show that our proposed method very fast, robust and successfully implemented to service robot called Srikandi II that equipped with 4 DOF arm robot developed in our laboratory.

  6. Synthesis of copper hydroxide branched nanocages and their transformation to copper oxide

    KAUST Repository

    LaGrow, Alec P.

    2014-08-21

    Copper oxide nanostructures have been explored in the literature for their great promise in the areas of energy storage and catalysis, which can be controlled based on their shape. Herein we describe the synthesis of complex branched nanocages of copper hydroxide with an alternating stacked morphology. The size of the nanocages\\' core and the length of the branches can be controlled by the temperature and ratio of surfactant used, varying the length from 85 to 232 nm long, and varying the core size from 240 to 19 nm. The nanostructures\\' unique morphology forms by controlling the growth of an initial spherical seed, and the crystallization of the anisotropic arms. The Cu(OH)2 nanostructures can be converted to polycrystalline CuO branched nanocages and Cu2O nanoframes. We show that the branched nanocage morphology of CuO has markedly superior catalytic properties to previous reports with CuO nanomaterials, resulting in a rapid and efficient catalyst for C-S coupling. © 2014 American Chemical Society.

  7. Inaccurate Citations in Biomedical Journalism: Effect on the Impact Factor of the American Journal of Roentgenology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karabulut, Nevzat

    2017-03-01

    The aim of this study is to investigate the frequency of incorrect citations and its effects on the impact factor of a specific biomedical journal: the American Journal of Roentgenology. The Cited Reference Search function of Thomson Reuters' Web of Science database (formerly the Institute for Scientific Information's Web of Knowledge database) was used to identify erroneous citations. This was done by entering the journal name into the Cited Work field and entering "2011-2012" into the Cited Year(s) field. The errors in any part of the inaccurately cited references (e.g., author names, title, year, volume, issue, and page numbers) were recorded, and the types of errors (i.e., absent, deficient, or mistyped) were analyzed. Erroneous citations were corrected using the Suggest a Correction function of the Web of Science database. The effect of inaccurate citations on the impact factor of the AJR was calculated. Overall, 183 of 1055 citable articles published in 2011-2012 were inaccurately cited 423 times (mean [± SD], 2.31 ± 4.67 times; range, 1-44 times). Of these 183 articles, 110 (60.1%) were web-only articles and 44 (24.0%) were print articles. The most commonly identified errors were page number errors (44.8%) and misspelling of an author's name (20.2%). Incorrect citations adversely affected the impact factor of the AJR by 0.065 in 2012 and by 0.123 in 2013. Inaccurate citations are not infrequent in biomedical journals, yet they can be detected and corrected using the Web of Science database. Although the accuracy of references is primarily the responsibility of authors, the journal editorial office should also define a periodic inaccurate citation check task and correct erroneous citations to reclaim unnecessarily lost credit.

  8. Bayesian modeling of ChIP-chip data using latent variables.

    KAUST Repository

    Wu, Mingqi

    2009-10-26

    BACKGROUND: The ChIP-chip technology has been used in a wide range of biomedical studies, such as identification of human transcription factor binding sites, investigation of DNA methylation, and investigation of histone modifications in animals and plants. Various methods have been proposed in the literature for analyzing the ChIP-chip data, such as the sliding window methods, the hidden Markov model-based methods, and Bayesian methods. Although, due to the integrated consideration of uncertainty of the models and model parameters, Bayesian methods can potentially work better than the other two classes of methods, the existing Bayesian methods do not perform satisfactorily. They usually require multiple replicates or some extra experimental information to parametrize the model, and long CPU time due to involving of MCMC simulations. RESULTS: In this paper, we propose a Bayesian latent model for the ChIP-chip data. The new model mainly differs from the existing Bayesian models, such as the joint deconvolution model, the hierarchical gamma mixture model, and the Bayesian hierarchical model, in two respects. Firstly, it works on the difference between the averaged treatment and control samples. This enables the use of a simple model for the data, which avoids the probe-specific effect and the sample (control/treatment) effect. As a consequence, this enables an efficient MCMC simulation of the posterior distribution of the model, and also makes the model more robust to the outliers. Secondly, it models the neighboring dependence of probes by introducing a latent indicator vector. A truncated Poisson prior distribution is assumed for the latent indicator variable, with the rationale being justified at length. CONCLUSION: The Bayesian latent method is successfully applied to real and ten simulated datasets, with comparisons with some of the existing Bayesian methods, hidden Markov model methods, and sliding window methods. The numerical results indicate that the

  9. Bayesian Mediation Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Yuan, Ying; MacKinnon, David P.

    2009-01-01

    This article proposes Bayesian analysis of mediation effects. Compared to conventional frequentist mediation analysis, the Bayesian approach has several advantages. First, it allows researchers to incorporate prior information into the mediation analysis, thus potentially improving the efficiency of estimates. Second, under the Bayesian mediation analysis, inference is straightforward and exact, which makes it appealing for studies with small samples. Third, the Bayesian approach is conceptua...

  10. Quantitative trait loci (QTL) mapping for inflorescence length traits in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Lablab purpureus (L.) sweet is an ancient legume species whose immature pods serve as a vegetable in south and south-east Asia. The objective of this study is to identify quantitative trait loci (QTLs) associated with quantitative traits such as inflorescence length, peduncle length from branch to axil, peduncle length from ...

  11. Introduction to Bayesian statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Bolstad, William M

    2017-01-01

    There is a strong upsurge in the use of Bayesian methods in applied statistical analysis, yet most introductory statistics texts only present frequentist methods. Bayesian statistics has many important advantages that students should learn about if they are going into fields where statistics will be used. In this Third Edition, four newly-added chapters address topics that reflect the rapid advances in the field of Bayesian staistics. The author continues to provide a Bayesian treatment of introductory statistical topics, such as scientific data gathering, discrete random variables, robust Bayesian methods, and Bayesian approaches to inferenfe cfor discrete random variables, bionomial proprotion, Poisson, normal mean, and simple linear regression. In addition, newly-developing topics in the field are presented in four new chapters: Bayesian inference with unknown mean and variance; Bayesian inference for Multivariate Normal mean vector; Bayesian inference for Multiple Linear RegressionModel; and Computati...

  12. A Bayesian phylogenetic study of the Dravidian language family

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolipakam, Vishnupriya

    2018-01-01

    The Dravidian language family consists of about 80 varieties (Hammarström H. 2016 Glottolog 2.7) spoken by 220 million people across southern and central India and surrounding countries (Steever SB. 1998 In The Dravidian languages (ed. SB Steever), pp. 1–39: 1). Neither the geographical origin of the Dravidian language homeland nor its exact dispersal through time are known. The history of these languages is crucial for understanding prehistory in Eurasia, because despite their current restricted range, these languages played a significant role in influencing other language groups including Indo-Aryan (Indo-European) and Munda (Austroasiatic) speakers. Here, we report the results of a Bayesian phylogenetic analysis of cognate-coded lexical data, elicited first hand from native speakers, to investigate the subgrouping of the Dravidian language family, and provide dates for the major points of diversification. Our results indicate that the Dravidian language family is approximately 4500 years old, a finding that corresponds well with earlier linguistic and archaeological studies. The main branches of the Dravidian language family (North, Central, South I, South II) are recovered, although the placement of languages within these main branches diverges from previous classifications. We find considerable uncertainty with regard to the relationships between the main branches. PMID:29657761

  13. Branch Development of Five-Year-Old Betula alnoides Plantations in Response to Planting Density

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chun-Sheng Wang

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Branch development in the lower part of stem is critical to both early stem growth and wood quality of the most valuable section of tree, and its regulation through planting density has always been greatly concerned. Here the effect of planting density on branch development was examined in a five-year-old plantation of Betula alnoides with six planting densities (625, 833, 1111, 1250, 1667, and 2500 stems per hectare (sph in Guangdong Province, South China. Branch quantity (number, proportion, and density, morphology (diameter, length, and angle, position (height and orientation, and branch status (dead or alive were investigated for 54 dominant or co-dominant trees under six treatments of planting density after the growth of each tree was measured. Factors influencing branch development were also explored by mixed modelling. The results showed that the mean tree heights of 1250 and 1667 sph treatments were higher than those of other planting density treatments. The quantity of live branches decreased with increasing planting density. However, planting density had no significant effect on the number of all branches, and there existed no remarkable difference in branch number and proportion among four orientations. As for branch morphology, only the largest branch diameter had a significantly negative correlation with planting density. In addition, high planting density significantly increased the height of the largest branch within the crown. Mixed effects models indicated that branch diameter, length, and angle were closely correlated with each other, and they were all in positively significant correlation to the branch height at the stem section below six meters. It was concluded that properly increasing planting density will promote natural pruning, improve early branch control, and be beneficial for wood production from the most valuable section of the stem.

  14. Dependence of paracentric inversion rate on tract length

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    York, Thomas L; Durrett, Rick; Nielsen, Rasmus

    2007-01-01

    BACKGROUND: We develop a Bayesian method based on MCMC for estimating the relative rates of pericentric and paracentric inversions from marker data from two species. The method also allows estimation of the distribution of inversion tract lengths. RESULTS: We apply the method to data from...... Drosophila melanogaster and D. yakuba. We find that pericentric inversions occur at a much lower rate compared to paracentric inversions. The average paracentric inversion tract length is approx. 4.8 Mb with small inversions being more frequent than large inversions.If the two breakpoints defining...... a paracentric inversion tract are uniformly and independently distributed over chromosome arms there will be more short tract-length inversions than long; we find an even greater preponderance of short tract lengths than this would predict. Thus there appears to be a correlation between the positions...

  15. Bayesian biostatistics

    CERN Document Server

    Lesaffre, Emmanuel

    2012-01-01

    The growth of biostatistics has been phenomenal in recent years and has been marked by considerable technical innovation in both methodology and computational practicality. One area that has experienced significant growth is Bayesian methods. The growing use of Bayesian methodology has taken place partly due to an increasing number of practitioners valuing the Bayesian paradigm as matching that of scientific discovery. In addition, computational advances have allowed for more complex models to be fitted routinely to realistic data sets. Through examples, exercises and a combination of introd

  16. Bayesian data analysis for newcomers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kruschke, John K; Liddell, Torrin M

    2018-02-01

    This article explains the foundational concepts of Bayesian data analysis using virtually no mathematical notation. Bayesian ideas already match your intuitions from everyday reasoning and from traditional data analysis. Simple examples of Bayesian data analysis are presented that illustrate how the information delivered by a Bayesian analysis can be directly interpreted. Bayesian approaches to null-value assessment are discussed. The article clarifies misconceptions about Bayesian methods that newcomers might have acquired elsewhere. We discuss prior distributions and explain how they are not a liability but an important asset. We discuss the relation of Bayesian data analysis to Bayesian models of mind, and we briefly discuss what methodological problems Bayesian data analysis is not meant to solve. After you have read this article, you should have a clear sense of how Bayesian data analysis works and the sort of information it delivers, and why that information is so intuitive and useful for drawing conclusions from data.

  17. How to practise Bayesian statistics outside the Bayesian church: What philosophy for Bayesian statistical modelling?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Borsboom, D.; Haig, B.D.

    2013-01-01

    Unlike most other statistical frameworks, Bayesian statistical inference is wedded to a particular approach in the philosophy of science (see Howson & Urbach, 2006); this approach is called Bayesianism. Rather than being concerned with model fitting, this position in the philosophy of science

  18. Bayesian Probability Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    von der Linden, Wolfgang; Dose, Volker; von Toussaint, Udo

    2014-06-01

    Preface; Part I. Introduction: 1. The meaning of probability; 2. Basic definitions; 3. Bayesian inference; 4. Combinatrics; 5. Random walks; 6. Limit theorems; 7. Continuous distributions; 8. The central limit theorem; 9. Poisson processes and waiting times; Part II. Assigning Probabilities: 10. Transformation invariance; 11. Maximum entropy; 12. Qualified maximum entropy; 13. Global smoothness; Part III. Parameter Estimation: 14. Bayesian parameter estimation; 15. Frequentist parameter estimation; 16. The Cramer-Rao inequality; Part IV. Testing Hypotheses: 17. The Bayesian way; 18. The frequentist way; 19. Sampling distributions; 20. Bayesian vs frequentist hypothesis tests; Part V. Real World Applications: 21. Regression; 22. Inconsistent data; 23. Unrecognized signal contributions; 24. Change point problems; 25. Function estimation; 26. Integral equations; 27. Model selection; 28. Bayesian experimental design; Part VI. Probabilistic Numerical Techniques: 29. Numerical integration; 30. Monte Carlo methods; 31. Nested sampling; Appendixes; References; Index.

  19. Branching geodesics in normed spaces

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ivanov, A O; Tuzhilin, A A

    2002-01-01

    We study branching extremals of length functionals on normed spaces. This is a natural generalization of the Steiner problem in normed spaces. We obtain criteria for a network to be extremal under deformations that preserve the topology of networks as well as under deformations with splitting. We discuss the connection between locally shortest networks and extremal networks. In the important particular case of the Manhattan plane, we get a criterion for a locally shortest network to be extremal

  20. A QUANTITATIVE METHOD FOR ANALYSING 3-D BRANCHING IN EMBRYONIC KIDNEYS: DEVELOPMENT OF A TECHNIQUE AND PRELIMINARY DATA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel Fricout

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available The normal human adult kidney contains between 300,000 and 1 million nephrons (the functional units of the kidney. Nephrons develop at the tips of the branching ureteric duct, and therefore ureteric duct branching morphogenesis is critical for normal kidney development. Current methods for analysing ureteric branching are mostly qualitative and those quantitative methods that do exist do not account for the 3- dimensional (3D shape of the ureteric "tree". We have developed a method for measuring the total length of the ureteric tree in 3D. This method is described and preliminary data are presented. The algorithm allows for performing a semi-automatic segmentation of a set of grey level confocal images and an automatic skeletonisation of the resulting binary object. Measurements of length are automatically obtained, and numbers of branch points are manually counted. The final representation can be reconstructed by means of 3D volume rendering software, providing a fully rotating 3D perspective of the skeletonised tree, making it possible to identify and accurately measure branch lengths. Preliminary data shows the total length estimates obtained with the technique to be highly reproducible. Repeat estimates of total tree length vary by just 1-2%. We will now use this technique to further define the growth of the ureteric tree in vitro, under both normal culture conditions, and in the presence of various levels of specific molecules suspected of regulating ureteric growth. The data obtained will provide fundamental information on the development of renal architecture, as well as the regulation of nephron number.

  1. SHORT-TERM SOLAR FLARE LEVEL PREDICTION USING A BAYESIAN NETWORK APPROACH

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu Daren; Huang Xin; Hu Qinghua; Zhou Rui; Wang Huaning; Cui Yanmei

    2010-01-01

    A Bayesian network approach for short-term solar flare level prediction has been proposed based on three sequences of photospheric magnetic field parameters extracted from Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Michelson Doppler Imager longitudinal magnetograms. The magnetic measures, the maximum horizontal gradient, the length of neutral line, and the number of singular points do not have determinate relationships with solar flares, so the solar flare level prediction is considered as an uncertainty reasoning process modeled by the Bayesian network. The qualitative network structure which describes conditional independent relationships among magnetic field parameters and the quantitative conditional probability tables which determine the probabilistic values for each variable are learned from the data set. Seven sequential features-the maximum, the mean, the root mean square, the standard deviation, the shape factor, the crest factor, and the pulse factor-are extracted to reduce the dimensions of the raw sequences. Two Bayesian network models are built using raw sequential data (BN R ) and feature extracted data (BN F ), respectively. The explanations of these models are consistent with physical analyses of experts. The performances of the BN R and the BN F appear comparable with other methods. More importantly, the comprehensibility of the Bayesian network models is better than other methods.

  2. Bayesian methods for data analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Carlin, Bradley P.

    2009-01-01

    Approaches for statistical inference Introduction Motivating Vignettes Defining the Approaches The Bayes-Frequentist Controversy Some Basic Bayesian Models The Bayes approach Introduction Prior Distributions Bayesian Inference Hierarchical Modeling Model Assessment Nonparametric Methods Bayesian computation Introduction Asymptotic Methods Noniterative Monte Carlo Methods Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods Model criticism and selection Bayesian Modeling Bayesian Robustness Model Assessment Bayes Factors via Marginal Density Estimation Bayes Factors

  3. Improvement in deuterium recovery from water–isotope mixture by thermal diffusion in the device of branch columns

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hsu, Ching-Chun; Yeh, Ho-Ming

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Recovery of deuterium by thermal diffusion from water–isotope mixture has been investigated. • The undesirable remixing effect can be reduced by employing the device of branch columns. • Deuterium recoveries were compared with that in a single column of the same total column length. • Considerable recovery improvement is obtainable in the device of branch columns, instead of in a single-column device. - Abstract: Deuterium recovery from water–isotopes mixture using thermal diffusion can be improved by employing the branch column device, instead of single column devices, with the same total column length. The remixing effect due to convection currents in a thermal diffusion column for heavy water enrichment is thus reduced and separation improvement increases when the flow rate or the total column length increases. The improvement in separation can reach about 50% for the numerical example given

  4. Short branches lead to systematic artifacts when BLAST searches are used as surrogate for phylogenetic reconstruction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dick, Amanda A; Harlow, Timothy J; Gogarten, J Peter

    2017-02-01

    Long Branch Attraction (LBA) is a well-known artifact in phylogenetic reconstruction when dealing with branch length heterogeneity. Here we show another phenomenon, Short Branch Attraction (SBA), which occurs when BLAST searches, a phenetic analysis, are used as a surrogate method for phylogenetic analysis. This error also results from branch length heterogeneity, but this time it is the short branches that are attracting. The SBA artifact is reciprocal and can be returned 100% of the time when multiple branches differ in length by a factor of more than two. SBA is an intended feature of BLAST searches, but becomes an issue, when top scoring BLAST hit analyses are used to infer Horizontal Gene Transfers (HGTs), assign taxonomic category with environmental sequence data in phylotyping, or gather homologous sequences for building gene families. SBA can lead researchers to believe that there has been a HGT event when only vertical descent has occurred, cause slowly evolving taxa to be over-represented and quickly evolving taxa to be under-represented in phylotyping, or systematically exclude quickly evolving taxa from analyses. SBA also contributes to the changing results of top scoring BLAST hit analyses as the database grows, because more slowly evolving taxa, or short branches, are added over time, introducing more potential for SBA. SBA can be detected by examining reciprocal best BLAST hits among a larger group of taxa, including the known closest phylogenetic neighbors. Therefore, one should look for this phenomenon when conducting best BLAST hit analyses as a surrogate method to identify HGTs, in phylotyping, or when using BLAST to gather homologous sequences. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Bayesian benefits with JASP

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marsman, M.; Wagenmakers, E.-J.

    2017-01-01

    We illustrate the Bayesian approach to data analysis using the newly developed statistical software program JASP. With JASP, researchers are able to take advantage of the benefits that the Bayesian framework has to offer in terms of parameter estimation and hypothesis testing. The Bayesian

  6. Bayesian modeling using WinBUGS

    CERN Document Server

    Ntzoufras, Ioannis

    2009-01-01

    A hands-on introduction to the principles of Bayesian modeling using WinBUGS Bayesian Modeling Using WinBUGS provides an easily accessible introduction to the use of WinBUGS programming techniques in a variety of Bayesian modeling settings. The author provides an accessible treatment of the topic, offering readers a smooth introduction to the principles of Bayesian modeling with detailed guidance on the practical implementation of key principles. The book begins with a basic introduction to Bayesian inference and the WinBUGS software and goes on to cover key topics, including: Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms in Bayesian inference Generalized linear models Bayesian hierarchical models Predictive distribution and model checking Bayesian model and variable evaluation Computational notes and screen captures illustrate the use of both WinBUGS as well as R software to apply the discussed techniques. Exercises at the end of each chapter allow readers to test their understanding of the presented concepts and all ...

  7. Maritime Transportation Risk Assessment of Tianjin Port with Bayesian Belief Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jinfen; Teixeira, Ângelo P; Guedes Soares, C; Yan, Xinping; Liu, Kezhong

    2016-06-01

    This article develops a Bayesian belief network model for the prediction of accident consequences in the Tianjin port. The study starts with a statistical analysis of historical accident data of six years from 2008 to 2013. Then a Bayesian belief network is constructed to express the dependencies between the indicator variables and accident consequences. The statistics and expert knowledge are synthesized in the Bayesian belief network model to obtain the probability distribution of the consequences. By a sensitivity analysis, several indicator variables that have influence on the consequences are identified, including navigational area, ship type and time of the day. The results indicate that the consequences are most sensitive to the position where the accidents occurred, followed by time of day and ship length. The results also reflect that the navigational risk of the Tianjin port is at the acceptable level, despite that there is more room of improvement. These results can be used by the Maritime Safety Administration to take effective measures to enhance maritime safety in the Tianjin port. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  8. Accurate and inaccurate HIV transmission beliefs, stigmatizing and HIV protection motivation in northern Thailand

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boer, Hendrik; Emons, P.A.A.; Emons, P.A.A.

    2004-01-01

    We assessed the relation between accurate beliefs about HIV transmission and inaccurate beliefs about HIV transmission and emotional reactions to people with AIDS (PWA) and AIDS risk groups, stigmatizing attitudes and motivation to protect from HIV. In Chiang Rai, northern Thailand, 219 respondents

  9. COMPUTER SIMULATION OF LOCAL MOBILITY IN DENDRIMERS WITH ASYMMETRIC BRANCHING BY BROWNIAN DYNAMICS METHOD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. V. Shavykin

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The Brownian dynamics method has been used to study the effect of the branching asymmetry on the local orientational mobility of segments and bonds in dendrimers in good solvent. “Coarse-grained” models of flexible dendrimers with different branching symmetry but with the same average segment length were considered. The frequency dependences of the rate of the spin-lattice relaxation nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR [1/T1H(H] for segments or bonds located at different distances from terminal monomers were calculated. After the exclusion of the contribution of the overall dendrimer rotation the position of the maxima of the frequency dependences [1/T1H(ωH] for different segments with the same length doesn’t depend on their location inside a dendrimer both for phantom models and for models with excluded volume interactions. This effect doesn’t depend also on the branching symmetry, but the position of the maximum [1/T1H(ωH] is determined by the segment length. For bonds inside segments the positions of the maximum [1/T1H(ωH] coincide for all models considered. Therefore, the obtained earlier conclusion about the weak influence of the excluded volume interactions on the local dynamics in the flexible symmetric dendrimers can be generalized for dendrimers with an asymmetric branching.

  10. Bayesian optimization for materials science

    CERN Document Server

    Packwood, Daniel

    2017-01-01

    This book provides a short and concise introduction to Bayesian optimization specifically for experimental and computational materials scientists. After explaining the basic idea behind Bayesian optimization and some applications to materials science in Chapter 1, the mathematical theory of Bayesian optimization is outlined in Chapter 2. Finally, Chapter 3 discusses an application of Bayesian optimization to a complicated structure optimization problem in computational surface science. Bayesian optimization is a promising global optimization technique that originates in the field of machine learning and is starting to gain attention in materials science. For the purpose of materials design, Bayesian optimization can be used to predict new materials with novel properties without extensive screening of candidate materials. For the purpose of computational materials science, Bayesian optimization can be incorporated into first-principles calculations to perform efficient, global structure optimizations. While re...

  11. Understanding Computational Bayesian Statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Bolstad, William M

    2011-01-01

    A hands-on introduction to computational statistics from a Bayesian point of view Providing a solid grounding in statistics while uniquely covering the topics from a Bayesian perspective, Understanding Computational Bayesian Statistics successfully guides readers through this new, cutting-edge approach. With its hands-on treatment of the topic, the book shows how samples can be drawn from the posterior distribution when the formula giving its shape is all that is known, and how Bayesian inferences can be based on these samples from the posterior. These ideas are illustrated on common statistic

  12. Bayesian statistics an introduction

    CERN Document Server

    Lee, Peter M

    2012-01-01

    Bayesian Statistics is the school of thought that combines prior beliefs with the likelihood of a hypothesis to arrive at posterior beliefs. The first edition of Peter Lee’s book appeared in 1989, but the subject has moved ever onwards, with increasing emphasis on Monte Carlo based techniques. This new fourth edition looks at recent techniques such as variational methods, Bayesian importance sampling, approximate Bayesian computation and Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC), providing a concise account of the way in which the Bayesian approach to statistics develops as wel

  13. Modelling primary branch growth based on a multilevel nonlinear ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In addition to random effects, various time series correlation structures were evaluated to account for residual autocorrelation, and the AR(1) and ARMA(1,1) structures were selected for the branch diameter and length growth models, respectively. Model validation results using an independent data set confirmed that ...

  14. Bayesian networks with examples in R

    CERN Document Server

    Scutari, Marco

    2014-01-01

    Introduction. The Discrete Case: Multinomial Bayesian Networks. The Continuous Case: Gaussian Bayesian Networks. More Complex Cases. Theory and Algorithms for Bayesian Networks. Real-World Applications of Bayesian Networks. Appendices. Bibliography.

  15. 1H-NMR/13C-NMR studies of branched structures in PVC obtained at atmospheric pressure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Braun, D.; Holzer, G.; Hjertberg, T.

    1981-01-01

    The 1 H-NMR-spectra of raw poly (vinyl cloride) obtained at atmospheric pressure (U-PVC) have revealed the presence of high concentrations of branches. The content of labile chlorine was determined by reaction with phenole in order to estimate the branch points with tertiary chlorine. The branch length of reductively dehalogenated U-PVC by 13 C-NMR analysis have provided evidence for both short chain branches including chloromethyl groups and 2.4-dichloro-n-butyl groups and long chain branching. For a number of U-polymers the total amount of branching ranges from 7.5 to 13.5/1000 C. The 13 C-NMR measurements point to a ratio of methyl/butyl branches of 1:1 and short chains/long chains of 6:1. (orig.)

  16. TESS: an R package for efficiently simulating phylogenetic trees and performing Bayesian inference of lineage diversification rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Höhna, Sebastian; May, Michael R; Moore, Brian R

    2016-03-01

    Many fundamental questions in evolutionary biology entail estimating rates of lineage diversification (speciation-extinction) that are modeled using birth-death branching processes. We leverage recent advances in branching-process theory to develop a flexible Bayesian framework for specifying diversification models-where rates are constant, vary continuously, or change episodically through time-and implement numerical methods to estimate parameters of these models from molecular phylogenies, even when species sampling is incomplete. We enable both statistical inference and efficient simulation under these models. We also provide robust methods for comparing the relative and absolute fit of competing branching-process models to a given tree, thereby providing rigorous tests of biological hypotheses regarding patterns and processes of lineage diversification. The source code for TESS is freely available at http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/TESS/ CONTACT: Sebastian.Hoehna@gmail.com. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  17. Weighted Branching Simulation Distance for Parametric Weighted Kripke Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Foshammer, Louise; Larsen, Kim Guldstrand; Mariegaard, Anders

    2016-01-01

    This paper concerns branching simulation for weighted Kripke structures with parametric weights. Concretely, we consider a weighted extension of branching simulation where a single transitions can be matched by a sequence of transitions while preserving the branching behavior. We relax this notion...... to allow for a small degree of deviation in the matching of weights, inducing a directed distance on states. The distance between two states can be used directly to relate properties of the states within a sub-fragment of weighted CTL. The problem of relating systems thus changes to minimizing the distance...... which, in the general parametric case, corresponds to finding suitable parameter valuations such that one system can approximately simulate another. Although the distance considers a potentially infinite set of transition sequences we demonstrate that there exists an upper bound on the length...

  18. Dynamic Properties of Star-Branched Polymer Brushes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sikorski, A.; Romiszowski, P.

    2004-01-01

    We studied a simplified model of a polymer brush. It consisted of star-branched chains, which were restricted to a simple cubic lattice. Each star-branched macromolecule consisted of three linear arms of equal length emanating from a common origin (the branching point). The chains were grafted to an impenetrable surface, i.e. they were terminally attached to the surface with one arm. The number of chains was varied from low to high grafting density. The model system was studied at good solvent conditions because the excluded volume effect was the only potential of interaction included in the model. The properties of this model system were studied by means of Monte Carlo simulation. The sampling algorithm was based on local changes of chain conformations. The dynamic properties of the polymer brush were studied and correlated with its structure. The differences in relaxation times of particular star arms were shown. The short-time mobility of polymer layers was analyzed. The lateral self-diffusion of chains was also studied and discussed. (author)

  19. Cambial activity in dry and rainy season on branches from woody species growing in Brazilian Cerrado

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carmen R. Marcati; Silvia R. Machado; Diego Sotto Podadera; Natalia O. Totti de Lara; Fabio Bosio; Alex C. Wiedenhoeft

    2016-01-01

    Seasonal cambial activity was investigated in one- to three-year-old branch modules (branch constructional units) of ten woody species from cerrado sensu stricto, a savanna-like ecosystem, of southernBrazil. Relationships between cambial activity and environmental factors (precipitation, temperature,day length) and leaf production were tested using...

  20. Bayesian Mediation Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Ying; MacKinnon, David P.

    2009-01-01

    In this article, we propose Bayesian analysis of mediation effects. Compared with conventional frequentist mediation analysis, the Bayesian approach has several advantages. First, it allows researchers to incorporate prior information into the mediation analysis, thus potentially improving the efficiency of estimates. Second, under the Bayesian…

  1. Experiments and numerical simulations of fluctuating thermal stratification in a branch pipe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nakamura, Akira; Murase, Michio; Sasaki, Toru [Inst. of Nuclear Safety System Inc., Mihama, Fukui (Japan); Takenaka, Nobuyuki; Hamatani, Daisuke [Kobe Univ. (Japan)

    2002-09-01

    Many pipes branch off from the main pipe in plants. When the main flow in the main pipe is hotter than a branch pipe that branches off downward, the hot water penetrates into the branch pipe with the cavity flow that is induced by the main flow and causes thermal stratification. If the interface of the stratification fluctuates in an occluded branch pipe, thermal fatigue may occur in pipe wall. Some experiments and numerical simulations were conducted to elucidate the mechanism of this fluctuating thermal stratification. The vortex structures were observed in the experiments of straight or bent branch pipes. When the main flow was heated and the thermal stratification interface was at the elbow, a ''burst'' phenomenon occurred in the interface in connection with large heat fluctuation. The effects of pipe shape on the length of penetration were investigated in order to modify simulation conditions. The vortex structures and the fluctuating thermal stratification at elbow in the numerical simulation showed good agreement with experiments. (author)

  2. Z3str3: A String Solver with Theory-aware Branching

    OpenAIRE

    Berzish, Murphy; Zheng, Yunhui; Ganesh, Vijay

    2017-01-01

    We present a new string SMT solver, Z3str3, that is faster than its competitors Z3str2, Norn, CVC4, S3, and S3P over a majority of three industrial-strength benchmarks, namely Kaluza, PISA, and IBM AppScan. Z3str3 supports string equations, linear arithmetic over length function, and regular language membership predicate. The key algorithmic innovation behind the efficiency of Z3str3 is a technique we call theory-aware branching, wherein we modify Z3's branching heuristic to take into account...

  3. Branching structure and strain hardening of branched metallocene polyethylenes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Torres, Enrique; Li, Si-Wan; Costeux, Stéphane; Dealy, John M.

    2015-01-01

    There have been a number of studies of a series of branched metallocene polyethylenes (BMPs) made in a solution, continuous stirred tank reactor (CSTR) polymerization. The materials studied vary in branching level in a systematic way, and the most highly branched members of the series exhibit mild strain hardening. An outstanding question is which types of branched molecules are responsible for strain hardening in extension. This question is explored here by use of polymerization and rheological models along with new data on the extensional flow behavior of the most highly branched members of the set. After reviewing all that is known about the effects of various branching structures in homogeneous polymers and comparing this with the structures predicted to be present in BMPs, it is concluded that in spite of their very low concentration, treelike molecules with branch-on-branch structure provide a large number of deeply buried inner segments that are essential for strain hardening in these polymers

  4. Branching structure and strain hardening of branched metallocene polyethylenes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Torres, Enrique; Li, Si-Wan; Costeux, Stéphane; Dealy, John M., E-mail: john.dealy@mcgill.ca [Department of Chemical Engineering, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec H3A 0C4 (Canada)

    2015-09-15

    There have been a number of studies of a series of branched metallocene polyethylenes (BMPs) made in a solution, continuous stirred tank reactor (CSTR) polymerization. The materials studied vary in branching level in a systematic way, and the most highly branched members of the series exhibit mild strain hardening. An outstanding question is which types of branched molecules are responsible for strain hardening in extension. This question is explored here by use of polymerization and rheological models along with new data on the extensional flow behavior of the most highly branched members of the set. After reviewing all that is known about the effects of various branching structures in homogeneous polymers and comparing this with the structures predicted to be present in BMPs, it is concluded that in spite of their very low concentration, treelike molecules with branch-on-branch structure provide a large number of deeply buried inner segments that are essential for strain hardening in these polymers.

  5. Crystal Structure of Full-length Mycobacterium tuberculosis H37Rv Glycogen Branching Enzyme; Insights of N-Terminal [beta]-Sandwich in Sustrate Specifity and Enzymatic Activity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pal, Kuntal; Kumar, Shiva; Sharma, Shikha; Garg, Saurabh Kumar; Alam, Mohammad Suhail; Xu, H. Eric; Agrawal, Pushpa; Swaminathan, Kunchithapadam (NU Sinapore); (Van Andel); (IMT-India)

    2010-07-13

    The open reading frame Rv1326c of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) H37Rv encodes for an {alpha}-1,4-glucan branching enzyme (MtbGlgB, EC 2.4.1.18, Uniprot entry Q10625). This enzyme belongs to glycoside hydrolase (GH) family 13 and catalyzes the branching of a linear glucose chain during glycogenesis by cleaving a 1 {yields} 4 bond and making a new 1 {yields} 6 bond. Here, we show the crystal structure of full-length MtbGlgB (MtbGlgBWT) at 2.33-{angstrom} resolution. MtbGlgBWT contains four domains: N1 {beta}-sandwich, N2 {beta}-sandwich, a central ({beta}/{alpha}){sub 8} domain that houses the catalytic site, and a C-terminal {beta}-sandwich. We have assayed the amylase activity with amylose and starch as substrates and the glycogen branching activity using amylose as a substrate for MtbGlgBWT and the N1 domain-deleted (the first 108 residues deleted) Mtb{Delta}108GlgB protein. The N1 {beta}-sandwich, which is formed by the first 105 amino acids and superimposes well with the N2 {beta}-sandwich, is shown to have an influence in substrate binding in the amylase assay. Also, we have checked and shown that several GH13 family inhibitors are ineffective against MtbGlgBWT and Mtb{Delta}108GlgB. We propose a two-step reaction mechanism, for the amylase activity (1 {yields} 4 bond breakage) and isomerization (1 {yields} 6 bond formation), which occurs in the same catalytic pocket. The structural and functional properties of MtbGlgB and Mtb{Delta}108GlgB are compared with those of the N-terminal 112-amino acid-deleted Escherichia coli GlgB (EC{Delta}112GlgB).

  6. Bayesian Inference on Gravitational Waves

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Asad Ali

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The Bayesian approach is increasingly becoming popular among the astrophysics data analysis communities. However, the Pakistan statistics communities are unaware of this fertile interaction between the two disciplines. Bayesian methods have been in use to address astronomical problems since the very birth of the Bayes probability in eighteenth century. Today the Bayesian methods for the detection and parameter estimation of gravitational waves have solid theoretical grounds with a strong promise for the realistic applications. This article aims to introduce the Pakistan statistics communities to the applications of Bayesian Monte Carlo methods in the analysis of gravitational wave data with an  overview of the Bayesian signal detection and estimation methods and demonstration by a couple of simplified examples.

  7. Bayesian analysis in plant pathology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mila, A L; Carriquiry, A L

    2004-09-01

    ABSTRACT Bayesian methods are currently much discussed and applied in several disciplines from molecular biology to engineering. Bayesian inference is the process of fitting a probability model to a set of data and summarizing the results via probability distributions on the parameters of the model and unobserved quantities such as predictions for new observations. In this paper, after a short introduction of Bayesian inference, we present the basic features of Bayesian methodology using examples from sequencing genomic fragments and analyzing microarray gene-expressing levels, reconstructing disease maps, and designing experiments.

  8. Receiver-based recovery of clipped ofdm signals for papr reduction: A bayesian approach

    KAUST Repository

    Ali, Anum

    2014-01-01

    Clipping is one of the simplest peak-to-average power ratio reduction schemes for orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM). Deliberately clipping the transmission signal degrades system performance, and clipping mitigation is required at the receiver for information restoration. In this paper, we acknowledge the sparse nature of the clipping signal and propose a low-complexity Bayesian clipping estimation scheme. The proposed scheme utilizes a priori information about the sparsity rate and noise variance for enhanced recovery. At the same time, the proposed scheme is robust against inaccurate estimates of the clipping signal statistics. The undistorted phase property of the clipped signal, as well as the clipping likelihood, is utilized for enhanced reconstruction. Furthermore, motivated by the nature of modern OFDM-based communication systems, we extend our clipping reconstruction approach to multiple antenna receivers and multi-user OFDM.We also address the problem of channel estimation from pilots contaminated by the clipping distortion. Numerical findings are presented that depict favorable results for the proposed scheme compared to the established sparse reconstruction schemes.

  9. Use of a Y-tube conduit after facial nerve injury reduces collateral axonal branching at the lesion site but neither reduces polyinnervation of motor endplates nor improves functional recovery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hizay, Arzu; Ozsoy, Umut; Demirel, Bahadir Murat; Ozsoy, Ozlem; Angelova, Srebrina K; Ankerne, Janina; Sarikcioglu, Sureyya Bilmen; Dunlop, Sarah A; Angelov, Doychin N; Sarikcioglu, Levent

    2012-06-01

    Despite increased understanding of peripheral nerve regeneration, functional recovery after surgical repair remains disappointing. A major contributing factor is the extensive collateral branching at the lesion site, which leads to inaccurate axonal navigation and aberrant reinnervation of targets. To determine whether the Y tube reconstruction improved axonal regrowth and whether this was associated with improved function. We used a Y-tube conduit with the aim of improving navigation of regenerating axons after facial nerve transection in rats. Retrograde labeling from the zygomatic and buccal branches showed a halving in the number of double-labeled facial motor neurons (15% vs 8%; P facial-facial anastomosis coaptation. However, in both surgical groups, the proportion of polyinnervated motor endplates was similar (≈ 30%; P > .05), and video-based motion analysis of whisking revealed similarly poor function. Although Y-tube reconstruction decreases axonal branching at the lesion site and improves axonal navigation compared with facial-facial anastomosis coaptation, it fails to promote monoinnervation of motor endplates and confers no functional benefit.

  10. Multi-level Bayesian analyses for single- and multi-vehicle freeway crashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Rongjie; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed

    2013-09-01

    This study presents multi-level analyses for single- and multi-vehicle crashes on a mountainous freeway. Data from a 15-mile mountainous freeway section on I-70 were investigated. Both aggregate and disaggregate models for the two crash conditions were developed. Five years of crash data were used in the aggregate investigation, while the disaggregate models utilized one year of crash data along with real-time traffic and weather data. For the aggregate analyses, safety performance functions were developed for the purpose of revealing the contributing factors for each crash type. Two methodologies, a Bayesian bivariate Poisson-lognormal model and a Bayesian hierarchical Poisson model with correlated random effects, were estimated to simultaneously analyze the two crash conditions with consideration of possible correlations. Except for the factors related to geometric characteristics, two exposure parameters (annual average daily traffic and segment length) were included. Two different sets of significant explanatory and exposure variables were identified for the single-vehicle (SV) and multi-vehicle (MV) crashes. It was found that the Bayesian bivariate Poisson-lognormal model is superior to the Bayesian hierarchical Poisson model, the former with a substantially lower DIC and more significant variables. In addition to the aggregate analyses, microscopic real-time crash risk evaluation models were developed for the two crash conditions. Multi-level Bayesian logistic regression models were estimated with the random parameters accounting for seasonal variations, crash-unit-level diversity and segment-level random effects capturing unobserved heterogeneity caused by the geometric characteristics. The model results indicate that the effects of the selected variables on crash occurrence vary across seasons and crash units; and that geometric characteristic variables contribute to the segment variations: the more unobserved heterogeneity have been accounted, the better

  11. Basics of Bayesian methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghosh, Sujit K

    2010-01-01

    Bayesian methods are rapidly becoming popular tools for making statistical inference in various fields of science including biology, engineering, finance, and genetics. One of the key aspects of Bayesian inferential method is its logical foundation that provides a coherent framework to utilize not only empirical but also scientific information available to a researcher. Prior knowledge arising from scientific background, expert judgment, or previously collected data is used to build a prior distribution which is then combined with current data via the likelihood function to characterize the current state of knowledge using the so-called posterior distribution. Bayesian methods allow the use of models of complex physical phenomena that were previously too difficult to estimate (e.g., using asymptotic approximations). Bayesian methods offer a means of more fully understanding issues that are central to many practical problems by allowing researchers to build integrated models based on hierarchical conditional distributions that can be estimated even with limited amounts of data. Furthermore, advances in numerical integration methods, particularly those based on Monte Carlo methods, have made it possible to compute the optimal Bayes estimators. However, there is a reasonably wide gap between the background of the empirically trained scientists and the full weight of Bayesian statistical inference. Hence, one of the goals of this chapter is to bridge the gap by offering elementary to advanced concepts that emphasize linkages between standard approaches and full probability modeling via Bayesian methods.

  12. Bayesian computation with R

    CERN Document Server

    Albert, Jim

    2009-01-01

    There has been a dramatic growth in the development and application of Bayesian inferential methods. Some of this growth is due to the availability of powerful simulation-based algorithms to summarize posterior distributions. There has been also a growing interest in the use of the system R for statistical analyses. R's open source nature, free availability, and large number of contributor packages have made R the software of choice for many statisticians in education and industry. Bayesian Computation with R introduces Bayesian modeling by the use of computation using the R language. The earl

  13. Synthesis and properties of highly branched Jatropha curcas L. oil derivatives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Daniel, Louis; Ardiyanti, Agnes R.; Schuur, Boelo; Manurung, Robert; Broekhuis, Antonius A.; Heeres, Hero J.

    The synthesis and properties of a number of novel branched Jatropha curcas L. oil (JO) derivatives containing vicinal di-ester units in the fatty acid chains are reported. Both the length (acetyl vs. hexanoyl) and the stereochemistry of the vicinal di-ester units (cis vs. trans) were varied. The

  14. The Bayesian Score Statistic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleibergen, F.R.; Kleijn, R.; Paap, R.

    2000-01-01

    We propose a novel Bayesian test under a (noninformative) Jeffreys'priorspecification. We check whether the fixed scalar value of the so-calledBayesian Score Statistic (BSS) under the null hypothesis is aplausiblerealization from its known and standardized distribution under thealternative. Unlike

  15. Bayesian methods for proteomic biomarker development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Belinda Hernández

    2015-12-01

    In this review we provide an introduction to Bayesian inference and demonstrate some of the advantages of using a Bayesian framework. We summarize how Bayesian methods have been used previously in proteomics and other areas of bioinformatics. Finally, we describe some popular and emerging Bayesian models from the statistical literature and provide a worked tutorial including code snippets to show how these methods may be applied for the evaluation of proteomic biomarkers.

  16. Bayesian inference with ecological applications

    CERN Document Server

    Link, William A

    2009-01-01

    This text is written to provide a mathematically sound but accessible and engaging introduction to Bayesian inference specifically for environmental scientists, ecologists and wildlife biologists. It emphasizes the power and usefulness of Bayesian methods in an ecological context. The advent of fast personal computers and easily available software has simplified the use of Bayesian and hierarchical models . One obstacle remains for ecologists and wildlife biologists, namely the near absence of Bayesian texts written specifically for them. The book includes many relevant examples, is supported by software and examples on a companion website and will become an essential grounding in this approach for students and research ecologists. Engagingly written text specifically designed to demystify a complex subject Examples drawn from ecology and wildlife research An essential grounding for graduate and research ecologists in the increasingly prevalent Bayesian approach to inference Companion website with analyt...

  17. Current trends in Bayesian methodology with applications

    CERN Document Server

    Upadhyay, Satyanshu K; Dey, Dipak K; Loganathan, Appaia

    2015-01-01

    Collecting Bayesian material scattered throughout the literature, Current Trends in Bayesian Methodology with Applications examines the latest methodological and applied aspects of Bayesian statistics. The book covers biostatistics, econometrics, reliability and risk analysis, spatial statistics, image analysis, shape analysis, Bayesian computation, clustering, uncertainty assessment, high-energy astrophysics, neural networking, fuzzy information, objective Bayesian methodologies, empirical Bayes methods, small area estimation, and many more topics.Each chapter is self-contained and focuses on

  18. The effect of 60Co γ-rays irradiation on seeds and branches of Euonymus fortunei

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ao Yan; Inner Mongolia Agriculture Univ., Huhhot; Zhang Guosheng; Lu Renqiang; Pan Qinghua

    2006-01-01

    Seeds and plant branches of Euonymus fortunei were irradiated with 60 Co γ-ray. The results showed that after irradiation, seed germination rate, emergence rate and surviving rate were restrained, and it was negatively correlated with irradiation dose increasing significantly. The first euphylis period was delayed compared with control. Seedling height decreased with the increase of irradiation dose. Semi-lethal dose of Euonymus fortunei seeds was 128.56 Gy. Branch irradiation could cause significantly number and length reduced, and it is correlated with irradiation dose increasing. The semi-lethal dose for Euonymus fortunei branches was 95.54 Gy. (authors)

  19. A Bayesian framework for risk perception

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Erp, H.R.N.

    2017-01-01

    We present here a Bayesian framework of risk perception. This framework encompasses plausibility judgments, decision making, and question asking. Plausibility judgments are modeled by way of Bayesian probability theory, decision making is modeled by way of a Bayesian decision theory, and relevancy

  20. Bayesian flood forecasting methods: A review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Shasha; Coulibaly, Paulin

    2017-08-01

    Over the past few decades, floods have been seen as one of the most common and largely distributed natural disasters in the world. If floods could be accurately forecasted in advance, then their negative impacts could be greatly minimized. It is widely recognized that quantification and reduction of uncertainty associated with the hydrologic forecast is of great importance for flood estimation and rational decision making. Bayesian forecasting system (BFS) offers an ideal theoretic framework for uncertainty quantification that can be developed for probabilistic flood forecasting via any deterministic hydrologic model. It provides suitable theoretical structure, empirically validated models and reasonable analytic-numerical computation method, and can be developed into various Bayesian forecasting approaches. This paper presents a comprehensive review on Bayesian forecasting approaches applied in flood forecasting from 1999 till now. The review starts with an overview of fundamentals of BFS and recent advances in BFS, followed with BFS application in river stage forecasting and real-time flood forecasting, then move to a critical analysis by evaluating advantages and limitations of Bayesian forecasting methods and other predictive uncertainty assessment approaches in flood forecasting, and finally discusses the future research direction in Bayesian flood forecasting. Results show that the Bayesian flood forecasting approach is an effective and advanced way for flood estimation, it considers all sources of uncertainties and produces a predictive distribution of the river stage, river discharge or runoff, thus gives more accurate and reliable flood forecasts. Some emerging Bayesian forecasting methods (e.g. ensemble Bayesian forecasting system, Bayesian multi-model combination) were shown to overcome limitations of single model or fixed model weight and effectively reduce predictive uncertainty. In recent years, various Bayesian flood forecasting approaches have been

  1. bNEAT: a Bayesian network method for detecting epistatic interactions in genome-wide association studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chen Xue-wen

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Detecting epistatic interactions plays a significant role in improving pathogenesis, prevention, diagnosis and treatment of complex human diseases. A recent study in automatic detection of epistatic interactions shows that Markov Blanket-based methods are capable of finding genetic variants strongly associated with common diseases and reducing false positives when the number of instances is large. Unfortunately, a typical dataset from genome-wide association studies consists of very limited number of examples, where current methods including Markov Blanket-based method may perform poorly. Results To address small sample problems, we propose a Bayesian network-based approach (bNEAT to detect epistatic interactions. The proposed method also employs a Branch-and-Bound technique for learning. We apply the proposed method to simulated datasets based on four disease models and a real dataset. Experimental results show that our method outperforms Markov Blanket-based methods and other commonly-used methods, especially when the number of samples is small. Conclusions Our results show bNEAT can obtain a strong power regardless of the number of samples and is especially suitable for detecting epistatic interactions with slight or no marginal effects. The merits of the proposed approach lie in two aspects: a suitable score for Bayesian network structure learning that can reflect higher-order epistatic interactions and a heuristic Bayesian network structure learning method.

  2. Topics in Bayesian statistics and maximum entropy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mutihac, R.; Cicuttin, A.; Cerdeira, A.; Stanciulescu, C.

    1998-12-01

    Notions of Bayesian decision theory and maximum entropy methods are reviewed with particular emphasis on probabilistic inference and Bayesian modeling. The axiomatic approach is considered as the best justification of Bayesian analysis and maximum entropy principle applied in natural sciences. Particular emphasis is put on solving the inverse problem in digital image restoration and Bayesian modeling of neural networks. Further topics addressed briefly include language modeling, neutron scattering, multiuser detection and channel equalization in digital communications, genetic information, and Bayesian court decision-making. (author)

  3. Book review: Bayesian analysis for population ecology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Link, William A.

    2011-01-01

    Brian Dennis described the field of ecology as “fertile, uncolonized ground for Bayesian ideas.” He continued: “The Bayesian propagule has arrived at the shore. Ecologists need to think long and hard about the consequences of a Bayesian ecology. The Bayesian outlook is a successful competitor, but is it a weed? I think so.” (Dennis 2004)

  4. Bayesian Fundamentalism or Enlightenment? On the explanatory status and theoretical contributions of Bayesian models of cognition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Matt; Love, Bradley C

    2011-08-01

    The prominence of Bayesian modeling of cognition has increased recently largely because of mathematical advances in specifying and deriving predictions from complex probabilistic models. Much of this research aims to demonstrate that cognitive behavior can be explained from rational principles alone, without recourse to psychological or neurological processes and representations. We note commonalities between this rational approach and other movements in psychology - namely, Behaviorism and evolutionary psychology - that set aside mechanistic explanations or make use of optimality assumptions. Through these comparisons, we identify a number of challenges that limit the rational program's potential contribution to psychological theory. Specifically, rational Bayesian models are significantly unconstrained, both because they are uninformed by a wide range of process-level data and because their assumptions about the environment are generally not grounded in empirical measurement. The psychological implications of most Bayesian models are also unclear. Bayesian inference itself is conceptually trivial, but strong assumptions are often embedded in the hypothesis sets and the approximation algorithms used to derive model predictions, without a clear delineation between psychological commitments and implementational details. Comparing multiple Bayesian models of the same task is rare, as is the realization that many Bayesian models recapitulate existing (mechanistic level) theories. Despite the expressive power of current Bayesian models, we argue they must be developed in conjunction with mechanistic considerations to offer substantive explanations of cognition. We lay out several means for such an integration, which take into account the representations on which Bayesian inference operates, as well as the algorithms and heuristics that carry it out. We argue this unification will better facilitate lasting contributions to psychological theory, avoiding the pitfalls

  5. Fixman compensating potential for general branched molecules

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jain, Abhinandan, E-mail: Abhi.Jain@jpl.nasa.gov [Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, 4800 Oak Grove Drive, Pasadena, California 91109 (United States); Kandel, Saugat; Wagner, Jeffrey; Larsen, Adrien; Vaidehi, Nagarajan, E-mail: nvaidehi@coh.org [Division of Immunology, Beckman Research Institute of the City of Hope, Duarte, California 91010 (United States)

    2013-12-28

    The technique of constraining high frequency modes of molecular motion is an effective way to increase simulation time scale and improve conformational sampling in molecular dynamics simulations. However, it has been shown that constraints on higher frequency modes such as bond lengths and bond angles stiffen the molecular model, thereby introducing systematic biases in the statistical behavior of the simulations. Fixman proposed a compensating potential to remove such biases in the thermodynamic and kinetic properties calculated from dynamics simulations. Previous implementations of the Fixman potential have been limited to only short serial chain systems. In this paper, we present a spatial operator algebra based algorithm to calculate the Fixman potential and its gradient within constrained dynamics simulations for branched topology molecules of any size. Our numerical studies on molecules of increasing complexity validate our algorithm by demonstrating recovery of the dihedral angle probability distribution function for systems that range in complexity from serial chains to protein molecules. We observe that the Fixman compensating potential recovers the free energy surface of a serial chain polymer, thus annulling the biases caused by constraining the bond lengths and bond angles. The inclusion of Fixman potential entails only a modest increase in the computational cost in these simulations. We believe that this work represents the first instance where the Fixman potential has been used for general branched systems, and establishes the viability for its use in constrained dynamics simulations of proteins and other macromolecules.

  6. Near-Nash equilibrium strategies for LQ differential games with inaccurate state information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available ε -Nash equilibrium or “near equilibrium” for a linear quadratic cost game is considered. Due to inaccurate state information, the standard solution for feedback Nash equilibrium cannot be applied. Instead, an estimation of the players' states is substituted into the optimal control strategies equation obtained for perfect state information. The magnitude of the ε in the ε -Nash equilibrium will depend on the quality of the estimation process. To illustrate this approach, a Luenberger-type observer is used in the numerical example to generate the players' state estimates in a two-player non-zero-sum LQ differential game.

  7. Vascular anatomy of the medial sural artery perforator flap: a new classification system of intra-muscular branching patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dusseldorp, Joseph R; Pham, Quy J; Ngo, Quan; Gianoutsos, Mark; Moradi, Pouria

    2014-09-01

    The medial sural artery perforator (MSAP) flap is a versatile fasciocutaneous flap. The main difficulty encountered when raising the MSAP flap is in obtaining adequate pedicle length during intra-muscular dissection. The objective of this study was to determine the pattern of intra-muscular course of the MSAP flap pedicle. 14 cadaveric specimens were dissected and CT angiograms of 84 legs were examined. The intra-muscular branching pattern and depths of the medial sural artery branches were analyzed. The number of perforators, position of the dominant perforator and both intra-muscular and total pedicle length were also recorded and compared to existing anatomical data. Three types of arterial branching pattern were identified within the medial gastrocnemius, demonstrating one (31%), two (59%) or three or more (10%) main branches. A dominant perforator from the medial sural artery was present in 92% of anatomical specimens (13/14). Vertically, the location of the perforator from the popliteal crease was on average 13 cm (±2 cm). Transversely, the perforator originated 2.5 cm (±1 cm) from the posterior midline. Using CT angiography it was possible in 10 consecutive patients to identify a more superficial intra-muscular branch and determine the leg with the optimal branching pattern type for flap harvest. This study is the first to describe the variability of the intra-muscular arterial anatomy of the medial head of gastrocnemius muscle. Surgeons utilizing the MSAP flap option should be aware of the possible branching pattern types and consequently the differing perforator distribution and depths of intra-muscular branches. Routine use of pre-operative CT angiogram may help determine which leg has the most favorable branching pattern type and intra-muscular course for flap harvest. Copyright © 2014 British Association of Plastic, Reconstructive and Aesthetic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Bayesian soft X-ray tomography using non-stationary Gaussian Processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Dong; Svensson, J.; Thomsen, H.; Werner, A.; Wolf, R.; Medina, F.

    2013-01-01

    In this study, a Bayesian based non-stationary Gaussian Process (GP) method for the inference of soft X-ray emissivity distribution along with its associated uncertainties has been developed. For the investigation of equilibrium condition and fast magnetohydrodynamic behaviors in nuclear fusion plasmas, it is of importance to infer, especially in the plasma center, spatially resolved soft X-ray profiles from a limited number of noisy line integral measurements. For this ill-posed inversion problem, Bayesian probability theory can provide a posterior probability distribution over all possible solutions under given model assumptions. Specifically, the use of a non-stationary GP to model the emission allows the model to adapt to the varying length scales of the underlying diffusion process. In contrast to other conventional methods, the prior regularization is realized in a probability form which enhances the capability of uncertainty analysis, in consequence, scientists who concern the reliability of their results will benefit from it. Under the assumption of normally distributed noise, the posterior distribution evaluated at a discrete number of points becomes a multivariate normal distribution whose mean and covariance are analytically available, making inversions and calculation of uncertainty fast. Additionally, the hyper-parameters embedded in the model assumption can be optimized through a Bayesian Occam's Razor formalism and thereby automatically adjust the model complexity. This method is shown to produce convincing reconstructions and good agreements with independently calculated results from the Maximum Entropy and Equilibrium-Based Iterative Tomography Algorithm methods

  9. Bayesian soft X-ray tomography using non-stationary Gaussian Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Dong; Svensson, J.; Thomsen, H.; Medina, F.; Werner, A.; Wolf, R.

    2013-08-01

    In this study, a Bayesian based non-stationary Gaussian Process (GP) method for the inference of soft X-ray emissivity distribution along with its associated uncertainties has been developed. For the investigation of equilibrium condition and fast magnetohydrodynamic behaviors in nuclear fusion plasmas, it is of importance to infer, especially in the plasma center, spatially resolved soft X-ray profiles from a limited number of noisy line integral measurements. For this ill-posed inversion problem, Bayesian probability theory can provide a posterior probability distribution over all possible solutions under given model assumptions. Specifically, the use of a non-stationary GP to model the emission allows the model to adapt to the varying length scales of the underlying diffusion process. In contrast to other conventional methods, the prior regularization is realized in a probability form which enhances the capability of uncertainty analysis, in consequence, scientists who concern the reliability of their results will benefit from it. Under the assumption of normally distributed noise, the posterior distribution evaluated at a discrete number of points becomes a multivariate normal distribution whose mean and covariance are analytically available, making inversions and calculation of uncertainty fast. Additionally, the hyper-parameters embedded in the model assumption can be optimized through a Bayesian Occam's Razor formalism and thereby automatically adjust the model complexity. This method is shown to produce convincing reconstructions and good agreements with independently calculated results from the Maximum Entropy and Equilibrium-Based Iterative Tomography Algorithm methods.

  10. Superior Rhythm Discrimination With the SmartShock Technology Algorithm - Results of the Implantable Defibrillator With Enhanced Features and Settings for Reduction of Inaccurate Detection (DEFENSE) Trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oginosawa, Yasushi; Kohno, Ritsuko; Honda, Toshihiro; Kikuchi, Kan; Nozoe, Masatsugu; Uchida, Takayuki; Minamiguchi, Hitoshi; Sonoda, Koichiro; Ogawa, Masahiro; Ideguchi, Takeshi; Kizaki, Yoshihisa; Nakamura, Toshihiro; Oba, Kageyuki; Higa, Satoshi; Yoshida, Keiki; Tsunoda, Soichi; Fujino, Yoshihisa; Abe, Haruhiko

    2017-08-25

    Shocks delivered by implanted anti-tachyarrhythmia devices, even when appropriate, lower the quality of life and survival. The new SmartShock Technology ® (SST) discrimination algorithm was developed to prevent the delivery of inappropriate shock. This prospective, multicenter, observational study compared the rate of inaccurate detection of ventricular tachyarrhythmia using the SST vs. a conventional discrimination algorithm.Methods and Results:Recipients of implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICD) or cardiac resynchronization therapy defibrillators (CRT-D) equipped with the SST algorithm were enrolled and followed up every 6 months. The tachycardia detection rate was set at ≥150 beats/min with the SST algorithm. The primary endpoint was the time to first inaccurate detection of ventricular tachycardia (VT) with conventional vs. the SST discrimination algorithm, up to 2 years of follow-up. Between March 2012 and September 2013, 185 patients (mean age, 64.0±14.9 years; men, 74%; secondary prevention indication, 49.5%) were enrolled at 14 Japanese medical centers. Inaccurate detection was observed in 32 patients (17.6%) with the conventional, vs. in 19 patients (10.4%) with the SST algorithm. SST significantly lowered the rate of inaccurate detection by dual chamber devices (HR, 0.50; 95% CI: 0.263-0.950; P=0.034). Compared with previous algorithms, the SST discrimination algorithm significantly lowered the rate of inaccurate detection of VT in recipients of dual-chamber ICD or CRT-D.

  11. 3rd Bayesian Young Statisticians Meeting

    CERN Document Server

    Lanzarone, Ettore; Villalobos, Isadora; Mattei, Alessandra

    2017-01-01

    This book is a selection of peer-reviewed contributions presented at the third Bayesian Young Statisticians Meeting, BAYSM 2016, Florence, Italy, June 19-21. The meeting provided a unique opportunity for young researchers, M.S. students, Ph.D. students, and postdocs dealing with Bayesian statistics to connect with the Bayesian community at large, to exchange ideas, and to network with others working in the same field. The contributions develop and apply Bayesian methods in a variety of fields, ranging from the traditional (e.g., biostatistics and reliability) to the most innovative ones (e.g., big data and networks).

  12. On-line Bayesian model updating for structural health monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rocchetta, Roberto; Broggi, Matteo; Huchet, Quentin; Patelli, Edoardo

    2018-03-01

    Fatigue induced cracks is a dangerous failure mechanism which affects mechanical components subject to alternating load cycles. System health monitoring should be adopted to identify cracks which can jeopardise the structure. Real-time damage detection may fail in the identification of the cracks due to different sources of uncertainty which have been poorly assessed or even fully neglected. In this paper, a novel efficient and robust procedure is used for the detection of cracks locations and lengths in mechanical components. A Bayesian model updating framework is employed, which allows accounting for relevant sources of uncertainty. The idea underpinning the approach is to identify the most probable crack consistent with the experimental measurements. To tackle the computational cost of the Bayesian approach an emulator is adopted for replacing the computationally costly Finite Element model. To improve the overall robustness of the procedure, different numerical likelihoods, measurement noises and imprecision in the value of model parameters are analysed and their effects quantified. The accuracy of the stochastic updating and the efficiency of the numerical procedure are discussed. An experimental aluminium frame and on a numerical model of a typical car suspension arm are used to demonstrate the applicability of the approach.

  13. Robust bayesian analysis of an autoregressive model with ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this work, robust Bayesian analysis of the Bayesian estimation of an autoregressive model with exponential innovations is performed. Using a Bayesian robustness methodology, we show that, using a suitable generalized quadratic loss, we obtain optimal Bayesian estimators of the parameters corresponding to the ...

  14. Is sonographically measured cervical length at 37 weeks of gestation associated with intrapartum cesarean section? A prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Vries, Bradley; Narayan, Rajit; McGeechan, Kevin; Santiagu, Stanley; Vairavan, Ramesh; Burke, Minke; Phipps, Hala; Hyett, Jon

    2018-02-16

    Cesarean section rates continue to increase globally. Prediction of intrapartum cesarean section could lead to preventive measures. Our aim was to assess the association between sonographically measured cervical length at 37 weeks of gestation and cesarean section among women planning a vaginal birth. The population was women with a low-risk pregnancy or with gestational diabetes. This was a prospective cohort study conducted in a tertiary referral hospital in Sydney, Australia. In all, 212 women with a low-risk pregnancy or with gestational diabetes were recruited including 158 nulliparous and 54 parous women. Maternal demographic, clinical and ultrasound characteristics were collected at 37 weeks of gestation. Semi-Bayesian logistic regression and Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation were used to assess the relationship between cervical length and cesarean section in labor. Rates of cesarean section were 5% (2/55) for cervical length ≤20 mm, 17% (17/101) for cervical length 20-32 mm, and 27% (13/56) for cervical length >32 mm. These rates were 4, 22 and 33%, respectively, in nulliparous women. In the semi-Bayesian analysis, the odds ratio for cesarean section was 6.2 (95% confidence interval 2.2-43) for cervical length 20-32 mm and 10 (95% confidence interval 4.8-74) for cervical length >32 mm compared with the lowest quartile of cervical length, after adjusting for maternal age, parity, height, prepregnancy body mass index, gestational diabetes, induction of labor, neonatal sex and birthweight centile. Cervical length at 37 weeks of gestation is associated with intrapartum cesarean section. © 2018 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

  15. Plug & Play object oriented Bayesian networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bangsø, Olav; Flores, J.; Jensen, Finn Verner

    2003-01-01

    been shown to be quite suitable for dynamic domains as well. However, processing object oriented Bayesian networks in practice does not take advantage of their modular structure. Normally the object oriented Bayesian network is transformed into a Bayesian network and, inference is performed...... dynamic domains. The communication needed between instances is achieved by means of a fill-in propagation scheme....

  16. Action of a diffusible target-derived chemoattractant on cortical axon branch induction and directed growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sato, M; Lopez-Mascaraque, L; Heffner, C D; O'Leary, D D

    1994-10-01

    Cortical axons innervate their brainstem target, the basilar pons, by the initiation and extension of collateral branches interstitially along their length. To address whether a diffusible pons-derived chemoattractant controls these events, we used cocultures in collagen matrices and time-lapse microscopy. Pontine explants enhanced by 5-fold the de novo initiation of transient branches along cortical axons; most branches were directed toward pons. Of the branches extended toward pons, 2%-3% were stabilized; those extended away were not. Pontine explants also enhanced the stable bifurcation of growth cones and prompted directional changes by growth cone turning and collateral extension. These effects were distance dependent and mimicked by pons-conditioned medium. This evidence indicates that the pons activity promotes branch initiation interstitially along cortical axons, a novel property for a chemoattractant, and provides a directional cue for their growth. These findings suggest that the pons chemoattractant serves as a diffusible target-recognition molecule.

  17. Inaccurate preoperative imaging assessment on biliary anatomy not increases biliary complications after living donor liver transplantation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xu Xiao; Wei Xuyong; Ling Qi; Wang Kai; Bao Haiwei; Xie Haiyang; Zhou Lin; Zheng Shusen

    2012-01-01

    Backgrounds and aims: Accurate assessment of graft bile duct is important to plan surgical procedure. Magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography (MRCP) has become an important diagnostic procedure in evaluation of pancreaticobiliary ductal abnormalities and has been reported as highly accurate. We aim to estimate the efficacy of preoperative MRCP on depicting biliary anatomy in living donor liver transplantation (LDLT), and to determine whether inaccurate preoperative imaging assessment would increase the biliary complications after LDLT. Methods: The data of 118 cases LDLT were recorded. Information from preoperative MRCP was assessed using intraoperative cholangiography (IOC) as the gold standard. The possible risk factors of recipient biliary complications were analyzed. Results: Of 118 donors, 84 had normal anatomy (type A) and 34 had anatomic variants (19 cases of type B, 9 cases of type C, 1 case of type E, 2 cases of type F and 3 cases of type I) confirmed by IOC. MRCP correctly predicted all 84 normal cases and 17 of 34 variant cases, and showed an accuracy of 85.6% (101/118). The incidence of biliary complications was comparable between cases with accurate and inaccurate classification of biliary tree from MRCP, and between cases with normal and variant anatomy of bile duct. While cases with graft duct opening ≤5 mm showed a significant higher incidence of total biliary complications (21.1% vs. 6.6%, P = 0.028) and biliary stricture (10.5% vs. 1.6%, P = 0.041) compared with cases with large duct opening >5 mm. Conclusion: MRCP could correctly predict normal but not variant biliary anatomy. Inaccurate assessment of biliary anatomy from MRCP not increases the rate of biliary complications, while small-sized graft duct may cause an increase in biliary complications particularly biliary stricture after LDLT.

  18. The Bayesian New Statistics: Hypothesis testing, estimation, meta-analysis, and power analysis from a Bayesian perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kruschke, John K; Liddell, Torrin M

    2018-02-01

    In the practice of data analysis, there is a conceptual distinction between hypothesis testing, on the one hand, and estimation with quantified uncertainty on the other. Among frequentists in psychology, a shift of emphasis from hypothesis testing to estimation has been dubbed "the New Statistics" (Cumming 2014). A second conceptual distinction is between frequentist methods and Bayesian methods. Our main goal in this article is to explain how Bayesian methods achieve the goals of the New Statistics better than frequentist methods. The article reviews frequentist and Bayesian approaches to hypothesis testing and to estimation with confidence or credible intervals. The article also describes Bayesian approaches to meta-analysis, randomized controlled trials, and power analysis.

  19. Heritability of slow and/or inaccurate reading ability in 33,000 adult twins with self-reported data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fibiger-Dagnæs, Steen; von Bornemann Hjelmborg, Jacob; Erbs, Lena

    2012-01-01

    Genetic influence for adult slow and/or inaccurate reading ability was studied from selfreported answers, using a dichotomous question on having difficulties in reading the Danish subtitles on foreign TV programs. The data from 33,424 twins were population based and were used for biometric analys...

  20. 2nd Bayesian Young Statisticians Meeting

    CERN Document Server

    Bitto, Angela; Kastner, Gregor; Posekany, Alexandra

    2015-01-01

    The Second Bayesian Young Statisticians Meeting (BAYSM 2014) and the research presented here facilitate connections among researchers using Bayesian Statistics by providing a forum for the development and exchange of ideas. WU Vienna University of Business and Economics hosted BAYSM 2014 from September 18th to 19th. The guidance of renowned plenary lecturers and senior discussants is a critical part of the meeting and this volume, which follows publication of contributions from BAYSM 2013. The meeting's scientific program reflected the variety of fields in which Bayesian methods are currently employed or could be introduced in the future. Three brilliant keynote lectures by Chris Holmes (University of Oxford), Christian Robert (Université Paris-Dauphine), and Mike West (Duke University), were complemented by 24 plenary talks covering the major topics Dynamic Models, Applications, Bayesian Nonparametrics, Biostatistics, Bayesian Methods in Economics, and Models and Methods, as well as a lively poster session ...

  1. Bayesian natural language semantics and pragmatics

    CERN Document Server

    Zeevat, Henk

    2015-01-01

    The contributions in this volume focus on the Bayesian interpretation of natural languages, which is widely used in areas of artificial intelligence, cognitive science, and computational linguistics. This is the first volume to take up topics in Bayesian Natural Language Interpretation and make proposals based on information theory, probability theory, and related fields. The methodologies offered here extend to the target semantic and pragmatic analyses of computational natural language interpretation. Bayesian approaches to natural language semantics and pragmatics are based on methods from signal processing and the causal Bayesian models pioneered by especially Pearl. In signal processing, the Bayesian method finds the most probable interpretation by finding the one that maximizes the product of the prior probability and the likelihood of the interpretation. It thus stresses the importance of a production model for interpretation as in Grice's contributions to pragmatics or in interpretation by abduction.

  2. Maximum likelihood inference of small trees in the presence of long branches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parks, Sarah L; Goldman, Nick

    2014-09-01

    The statistical basis of maximum likelihood (ML), its robustness, and the fact that it appears to suffer less from biases lead to it being one of the most popular methods for tree reconstruction. Despite its popularity, very few analytical solutions for ML exist, so biases suffered by ML are not well understood. One possible bias is long branch attraction (LBA), a regularly cited term generally used to describe a propensity for long branches to be joined together in estimated trees. Although initially mentioned in connection with inconsistency of parsimony, LBA has been claimed to affect all major phylogenetic reconstruction methods, including ML. Despite the widespread use of this term in the literature, exactly what LBA is and what may be causing it is poorly understood, even for simple evolutionary models and small model trees. Studies looking at LBA have focused on the effect of two long branches on tree reconstruction. However, to understand the effect of two long branches it is also important to understand the effect of just one long branch. If ML struggles to reconstruct one long branch, then this may have an impact on LBA. In this study, we look at the effect of one long branch on three-taxon tree reconstruction. We show that, counterintuitively, long branches are preferentially placed at the tips of the tree. This can be understood through the use of analytical solutions to the ML equation and distance matrix methods. We go on to look at the placement of two long branches on four-taxon trees, showing that there is no attraction between long branches, but that for extreme branch lengths long branches are joined together disproportionally often. These results illustrate that even small model trees are still interesting to help understand how ML phylogenetic reconstruction works, and that LBA is a complicated phenomenon that deserves further study. © The Author(s) 2014. Published by Oxford University Press, on behalf of the Society of Systematic Biologists.

  3. Motor branches of the ulnar nerve to the forearm: an anatomical study and guidelines for selective neurectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paulos, Renata; Leclercq, Caroline

    2015-11-01

    Precise knowledge of motor nerve branches is critical to plan selective neurectomies for the treatment of spastic limbs. Our objective is to describe the muscular branching pattern of the ulnar nerve in the forearm and suggest an ideal surgical approach for selective neurectomy of the flexor carpi ulnaris. The ulnar nerve was dissected under loop magnification in 20 upper limbs of fresh frozen cadavers and its branches to the flexor carpi ulnaris muscle (FCU) and to the flexor digitorum profundus muscle (FDP) were quantified. We measured their diameter, length and distance between their origin and the medial epicondyle. The point where the ulnar artery joined the nerve was observed. The position in which the ulnar nerve gave off each branch was noted (ulnar, posterior or radial) and the Martin-Gruber connection, when present, had its origin observed and its diameter measured. The ulnar nerve gave off two to five muscular branches, among which, one to four to the FCU and one or two to the FDP. In all cases, the first branch was to the FCU. It arose on average 1.4 cm distal to the epicondyle, but in four specimens it arose above or at the level of the medial epicondyle (2.0 cm above in one case, 1.5 cm above in two cases, and at the level of the medial epicondyle in one). The first branch to the FDP arose on average 5.0 cm distal to the medial epicondyle. All the branches to FDP but one arose from the radial aspect of the ulnar nerve. A Martin-Gruber connection was present in nine cases. All motor branches arose in the proximal half of the forearm and the ulnar nerve did not give off branches distal to the point where it was joined by the ulnar artery. The number of motor branches of the ulnar nerve to the FCU varies from 2 to 4. An ideal approach for selective neurectomy of the FCU should start 4 cm above the medial epicondyle, and extend distally to 50% of the length of the forearm or just to the point where the ulnar artery joins the nerve.

  4. Bayesian methods in reliability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sander, P.; Badoux, R.

    1991-11-01

    The present proceedings from a course on Bayesian methods in reliability encompasses Bayesian statistical methods and their computational implementation, models for analyzing censored data from nonrepairable systems, the traits of repairable systems and growth models, the use of expert judgment, and a review of the problem of forecasting software reliability. Specific issues addressed include the use of Bayesian methods to estimate the leak rate of a gas pipeline, approximate analyses under great prior uncertainty, reliability estimation techniques, and a nonhomogeneous Poisson process. Also addressed are the calibration sets and seed variables of expert judgment systems for risk assessment, experimental illustrations of the use of expert judgment for reliability testing, and analyses of the predictive quality of software-reliability growth models such as the Weibull order statistics.

  5. Bayesian networks and food security - An introduction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stein, A.

    2004-01-01

    This paper gives an introduction to Bayesian networks. Networks are defined and put into a Bayesian context. Directed acyclical graphs play a crucial role here. Two simple examples from food security are addressed. Possible uses of Bayesian networks for implementation and further use in decision

  6. Branches of the Facial Artery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hwang, Kun; Lee, Geun In; Park, Hye Jin

    2015-06-01

    The aim of this study is to review the name of the branches, to review the classification of the branching pattern, and to clarify a presence percentage of each branch of the facial artery, systematically. In a PubMed search, the search terms "facial," AND "artery," AND "classification OR variant OR pattern" were used. The IBM SPSS Statistics 20 system was used for statistical analysis. Among the 500 titles, 18 articles were selected and reviewed systematically. Most of the articles focused on "classification" according to the "terminal branch." Several authors classified the facial artery according to their terminal branches. Most of them, however, did not describe the definition of "terminal branch." There were confusions within the classifications. When the inferior labial artery was absent, 3 different types were used. The "alar branch" or "nasal branch" was used instead of the "lateral nasal branch." The angular branch was used to refer to several different branches. The presence as a percentage of each branch according to the branches in Gray's Anatomy (premasseteric, inferior labial, superior labial, lateral nasal, and angular) varied. No branch was used with 100% consistency. The superior labial branch was most frequently cited (95.7%, 382 arteries in 399 hemifaces). The angular branch (53.9%, 219 arteries in 406 hemifaces) and the premasseteric branch were least frequently cited (53.8%, 43 arteries in 80 hemifaces). There were significant differences among each of the 5 branches (P < 0.05) except between the angular branch and the premasseteric branch and between the superior labial branch and the inferior labial branch. The authors believe identifying the presence percentage of each branch will be helpful for surgical procedures.

  7. 12th Brazilian Meeting on Bayesian Statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Louzada, Francisco; Rifo, Laura; Stern, Julio; Lauretto, Marcelo

    2015-01-01

    Through refereed papers, this volume focuses on the foundations of the Bayesian paradigm; their comparison to objectivistic or frequentist Statistics counterparts; and the appropriate application of Bayesian foundations. This research in Bayesian Statistics is applicable to data analysis in biostatistics, clinical trials, law, engineering, and the social sciences. EBEB, the Brazilian Meeting on Bayesian Statistics, is held every two years by the ISBrA, the International Society for Bayesian Analysis, one of the most active chapters of the ISBA. The 12th meeting took place March 10-14, 2014 in Atibaia. Interest in foundations of inductive Statistics has grown recently in accordance with the increasing availability of Bayesian methodological alternatives. Scientists need to deal with the ever more difficult choice of the optimal method to apply to their problem. This volume shows how Bayes can be the answer. The examination and discussion on the foundations work towards the goal of proper application of Bayesia...

  8. Kernel Bayesian ART and ARTMAP.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masuyama, Naoki; Loo, Chu Kiong; Dawood, Farhan

    2018-02-01

    Adaptive Resonance Theory (ART) is one of the successful approaches to resolving "the plasticity-stability dilemma" in neural networks, and its supervised learning model called ARTMAP is a powerful tool for classification. Among several improvements, such as Fuzzy or Gaussian based models, the state of art model is Bayesian based one, while solving the drawbacks of others. However, it is known that the Bayesian approach for the high dimensional and a large number of data requires high computational cost, and the covariance matrix in likelihood becomes unstable. This paper introduces Kernel Bayesian ART (KBA) and ARTMAP (KBAM) by integrating Kernel Bayes' Rule (KBR) and Correntropy Induced Metric (CIM) to Bayesian ART (BA) and ARTMAP (BAM), respectively, while maintaining the properties of BA and BAM. The kernel frameworks in KBA and KBAM are able to avoid the curse of dimensionality. In addition, the covariance-free Bayesian computation by KBR provides the efficient and stable computational capability to KBA and KBAM. Furthermore, Correntropy-based similarity measurement allows improving the noise reduction ability even in the high dimensional space. The simulation experiments show that KBA performs an outstanding self-organizing capability than BA, and KBAM provides the superior classification ability than BAM, respectively. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Bayesian networks improve causal environmental ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rule-based weight of evidence approaches to ecological risk assessment may not account for uncertainties and generally lack probabilistic integration of lines of evidence. Bayesian networks allow causal inferences to be made from evidence by including causal knowledge about the problem, using this knowledge with probabilistic calculus to combine multiple lines of evidence, and minimizing biases in predicting or diagnosing causal relationships. Too often, sources of uncertainty in conventional weight of evidence approaches are ignored that can be accounted for with Bayesian networks. Specifying and propagating uncertainties improve the ability of models to incorporate strength of the evidence in the risk management phase of an assessment. Probabilistic inference from a Bayesian network allows evaluation of changes in uncertainty for variables from the evidence. The network structure and probabilistic framework of a Bayesian approach provide advantages over qualitative approaches in weight of evidence for capturing the impacts of multiple sources of quantifiable uncertainty on predictions of ecological risk. Bayesian networks can facilitate the development of evidence-based policy under conditions of uncertainty by incorporating analytical inaccuracies or the implications of imperfect information, structuring and communicating causal issues through qualitative directed graph formulations, and quantitatively comparing the causal power of multiple stressors on value

  10. Bayesian Latent Class Analysis Tutorial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yuelin; Lord-Bessen, Jennifer; Shiyko, Mariya; Loeb, Rebecca

    2018-01-01

    This article is a how-to guide on Bayesian computation using Gibbs sampling, demonstrated in the context of Latent Class Analysis (LCA). It is written for students in quantitative psychology or related fields who have a working knowledge of Bayes Theorem and conditional probability and have experience in writing computer programs in the statistical language R . The overall goals are to provide an accessible and self-contained tutorial, along with a practical computation tool. We begin with how Bayesian computation is typically described in academic articles. Technical difficulties are addressed by a hypothetical, worked-out example. We show how Bayesian computation can be broken down into a series of simpler calculations, which can then be assembled together to complete a computationally more complex model. The details are described much more explicitly than what is typically available in elementary introductions to Bayesian modeling so that readers are not overwhelmed by the mathematics. Moreover, the provided computer program shows how Bayesian LCA can be implemented with relative ease. The computer program is then applied in a large, real-world data set and explained line-by-line. We outline the general steps in how to extend these considerations to other methodological applications. We conclude with suggestions for further readings.

  11. Bayesian policy reuse

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Rosman, Benjamin

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Keywords Policy Reuse · Reinforcement Learning · Online Learning · Online Bandits · Transfer Learning · Bayesian Optimisation · Bayesian Decision Theory. 1 Introduction As robots and software agents are becoming more ubiquitous in many applications.... The agent has access to a library of policies (pi1, pi2 and pi3), and has previously experienced a set of task instances (τ1, τ2, τ3, τ4), as well as samples of the utilities of the library policies on these instances (the black dots indicate the means...

  12. Inverse problems in the Bayesian framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Calvetti, Daniela; Somersalo, Erkki; Kaipio, Jari P

    2014-01-01

    The history of Bayesian methods dates back to the original works of Reverend Thomas Bayes and Pierre-Simon Laplace: the former laid down some of the basic principles on inverse probability in his classic article ‘An essay towards solving a problem in the doctrine of chances’ that was read posthumously in the Royal Society in 1763. Laplace, on the other hand, in his ‘Memoirs on inverse probability’ of 1774 developed the idea of updating beliefs and wrote down the celebrated Bayes’ formula in the form we know today. Although not identified yet as a framework for investigating inverse problems, Laplace used the formalism very much in the spirit it is used today in the context of inverse problems, e.g., in his study of the distribution of comets. With the evolution of computational tools, Bayesian methods have become increasingly popular in all fields of human knowledge in which conclusions need to be drawn based on incomplete and noisy data. Needless to say, inverse problems, almost by definition, fall into this category. Systematic work for developing a Bayesian inverse problem framework can arguably be traced back to the 1980s, (the original first edition being published by Elsevier in 1987), although articles on Bayesian methodology applied to inverse problems, in particular in geophysics, had appeared much earlier. Today, as testified by the articles in this special issue, the Bayesian methodology as a framework for considering inverse problems has gained a lot of popularity, and it has integrated very successfully with many traditional inverse problems ideas and techniques, providing novel ways to interpret and implement traditional procedures in numerical analysis, computational statistics, signal analysis and data assimilation. The range of applications where the Bayesian framework has been fundamental goes from geophysics, engineering and imaging to astronomy, life sciences and economy, and continues to grow. There is no question that Bayesian

  13. Bayesian models: A statistical primer for ecologists

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hobbs, N. Thompson; Hooten, Mevin B.

    2015-01-01

    Bayesian modeling has become an indispensable tool for ecological research because it is uniquely suited to deal with complexity in a statistically coherent way. This textbook provides a comprehensive and accessible introduction to the latest Bayesian methods—in language ecologists can understand. Unlike other books on the subject, this one emphasizes the principles behind the computations, giving ecologists a big-picture understanding of how to implement this powerful statistical approach.Bayesian Models is an essential primer for non-statisticians. It begins with a definition of probability and develops a step-by-step sequence of connected ideas, including basic distribution theory, network diagrams, hierarchical models, Markov chain Monte Carlo, and inference from single and multiple models. This unique book places less emphasis on computer coding, favoring instead a concise presentation of the mathematical statistics needed to understand how and why Bayesian analysis works. It also explains how to write out properly formulated hierarchical Bayesian models and use them in computing, research papers, and proposals.This primer enables ecologists to understand the statistical principles behind Bayesian modeling and apply them to research, teaching, policy, and management.Presents the mathematical and statistical foundations of Bayesian modeling in language accessible to non-statisticiansCovers basic distribution theory, network diagrams, hierarchical models, Markov chain Monte Carlo, and moreDeemphasizes computer coding in favor of basic principlesExplains how to write out properly factored statistical expressions representing Bayesian models

  14. The current state of Bayesian methods in medical product development: survey results and recommendations from the DIA Bayesian Scientific Working Group.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Natanegara, Fanni; Neuenschwander, Beat; Seaman, John W; Kinnersley, Nelson; Heilmann, Cory R; Ohlssen, David; Rochester, George

    2014-01-01

    Bayesian applications in medical product development have recently gained popularity. Despite many advances in Bayesian methodology and computations, increase in application across the various areas of medical product development has been modest. The DIA Bayesian Scientific Working Group (BSWG), which includes representatives from industry, regulatory agencies, and academia, has adopted the vision to ensure Bayesian methods are well understood, accepted more broadly, and appropriately utilized to improve decision making and enhance patient outcomes. As Bayesian applications in medical product development are wide ranging, several sub-teams were formed to focus on various topics such as patient safety, non-inferiority, prior specification, comparative effectiveness, joint modeling, program-wide decision making, analytical tools, and education. The focus of this paper is on the recent effort of the BSWG Education sub-team to administer a Bayesian survey to statisticians across 17 organizations involved in medical product development. We summarize results of this survey, from which we provide recommendations on how to accelerate progress in Bayesian applications throughout medical product development. The survey results support findings from the literature and provide additional insight on regulatory acceptance of Bayesian methods and information on the need for a Bayesian infrastructure within an organization. The survey findings support the claim that only modest progress in areas of education and implementation has been made recently, despite substantial progress in Bayesian statistical research and software availability. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  15. Bayesian Alternation During Tactile Augmentation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Caspar Mathias Goeke

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available A large number of studies suggest that the integration of multisensory signals by humans is well described by Bayesian principles. However, there are very few reports about cue combination between a native and an augmented sense. In particular, we asked the question whether adult participants are able to integrate an augmented sensory cue with existing native sensory information. Hence for the purpose of this study we build a tactile augmentation device. Consequently, we compared different hypotheses of how untrained adult participants combine information from a native and an augmented sense. In a two-interval forced choice (2 IFC task, while subjects were blindfolded and seated on a rotating platform, our sensory augmentation device translated information on whole body yaw rotation to tactile stimulation. Three conditions were realized: tactile stimulation only (augmented condition, rotation only (native condition, and both augmented and native information (bimodal condition. Participants had to choose one out of two consecutive rotations with higher angular rotation. For the analysis, we fitted the participants’ responses with a probit model and calculated the just notable difference (JND. Then we compared several models for predicting bimodal from unimodal responses. An objective Bayesian alternation model yielded a better prediction (χred2 = 1.67 than the Bayesian integration model (χred2= 4.34. Slightly higher accuracy showed a non-Bayesian winner takes all model (χred2= 1.64, which either used only native or only augmented values per subject for prediction. However the performance of the Bayesian alternation model could be substantially improved (χred2= 1.09 utilizing subjective weights obtained by a questionnaire. As a result, the subjective Bayesian alternation model predicted bimodal performance most accurately among all tested models. These results suggest that information from augmented and existing sensory modalities in

  16. An introduction to Bayesian statistics in health psychology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Depaoli, Sarah; Rus, Holly M; Clifton, James P; van de Schoot, Rens; Tiemensma, Jitske

    2017-09-01

    The aim of the current article is to provide a brief introduction to Bayesian statistics within the field of health psychology. Bayesian methods are increasing in prevalence in applied fields, and they have been shown in simulation research to improve the estimation accuracy of structural equation models, latent growth curve (and mixture) models, and hierarchical linear models. Likewise, Bayesian methods can be used with small sample sizes since they do not rely on large sample theory. In this article, we discuss several important components of Bayesian statistics as they relate to health-based inquiries. We discuss the incorporation and impact of prior knowledge into the estimation process and the different components of the analysis that should be reported in an article. We present an example implementing Bayesian estimation in the context of blood pressure changes after participants experienced an acute stressor. We conclude with final thoughts on the implementation of Bayesian statistics in health psychology, including suggestions for reviewing Bayesian manuscripts and grant proposals. We have also included an extensive amount of online supplementary material to complement the content presented here, including Bayesian examples using many different software programmes and an extensive sensitivity analysis examining the impact of priors.

  17. Bayesian Network Induction via Local Neighborhoods

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Margaritis, Dimitris

    1999-01-01

    .... We present an efficient algorithm for learning Bayesian networks from data. Our approach constructs Bayesian networks by first identifying each node's Markov blankets, then connecting nodes in a consistent way...

  18. Branched polynomial covering maps

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Vagn Lundsgaard

    2002-01-01

    A Weierstrass polynomial with multiple roots in certain points leads to a branched covering map. With this as the guiding example, we formally define and study the notion of a branched polynomial covering map. We shall prove that many finite covering maps are polynomial outside a discrete branch ...... set. Particular studies are made of branched polynomial covering maps arising from Riemann surfaces and from knots in the 3-sphere. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.......A Weierstrass polynomial with multiple roots in certain points leads to a branched covering map. With this as the guiding example, we formally define and study the notion of a branched polynomial covering map. We shall prove that many finite covering maps are polynomial outside a discrete branch...

  19. A Bayesian encourages dropout

    OpenAIRE

    Maeda, Shin-ichi

    2014-01-01

    Dropout is one of the key techniques to prevent the learning from overfitting. It is explained that dropout works as a kind of modified L2 regularization. Here, we shed light on the dropout from Bayesian standpoint. Bayesian interpretation enables us to optimize the dropout rate, which is beneficial for learning of weight parameters and prediction after learning. The experiment result also encourages the optimization of the dropout.

  20. Prospects for measuring the branching ratio of the rare B0s→μ+μ- decay with the ATLAS experiment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sipica, Valentin

    2011-09-01

    The Large Hadron Collider (LHC) located at the CERN laboratory in Geneva provides p-p collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of √(s)=7 TeV. The study of the rare B 0 s →μ + μ - decay is among the research topics of ATLAS, one of the main experiments at the LHC. This decay is highly suppressed in the Standard Model of particle physics and may give an indirect evidence for New Physics models. This PhD thesis investigates prospects for measuring the branching ratio of the B 0 s →μ + μ - decay with the ATLAS experiment. The analysis is based on Monte Carlo data, with p-p collisions generated at a centre-of-mass energy of √(s)=10 TeV. The strategy employed is to calculate the B 0 s →μ + μ - branching ratio relative to the branching ratio of the B + → J/ψ(μ + μ - )K + decay. The dominant background channel is the b anti b→μ + μ - X combinatorial background. True B 0 s →μ + μ - decay candidates are separated from the much larger amount of combinatorial background events using several discriminating quantities. Upper limits on the B 0 s → μ + μ - branching ratio are computed using a Bayesian and a frequentist method. The expected precision of the branching ratio measurement is estimated for different values of the integrated luminosity. An expected upper limit on the branching ratio is computed to BR(B 0 s →μ + μ - ) -8 at a 95% confidence level for 1 fb -1 . The precision of the ATLAS measurement of the branching ratio will reach a level compatible with the best current measurements with about 2-5 fb -1 of data.

  1. Bayesian Data Analysis (lecture 2)

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2018-01-01

    framework but we will also go into more detail and discuss for example the role of the prior. The second part of the lecture will cover further examples and applications that heavily rely on the bayesian approach, as well as some computational tools needed to perform a bayesian analysis.

  2. Bayesian Data Analysis (lecture 1)

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2018-01-01

    framework but we will also go into more detail and discuss for example the role of the prior. The second part of the lecture will cover further examples and applications that heavily rely on the bayesian approach, as well as some computational tools needed to perform a bayesian analysis.

  3. Learning Local Components to Understand Large Bayesian Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zeng, Yifeng; Xiang, Yanping; Cordero, Jorge

    2009-01-01

    (domain experts) to extract accurate information from a large Bayesian network due to dimensional difficulty. We define a formulation of local components and propose a clustering algorithm to learn such local components given complete data. The algorithm groups together most inter-relevant attributes......Bayesian networks are known for providing an intuitive and compact representation of probabilistic information and allowing the creation of models over a large and complex domain. Bayesian learning and reasoning are nontrivial for a large Bayesian network. In parallel, it is a tough job for users...... in a domain. We evaluate its performance on three benchmark Bayesian networks and provide results in support. We further show that the learned components may represent local knowledge more precisely in comparison to the full Bayesian networks when working with a small amount of data....

  4. Philosophy and the practice of Bayesian statistics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gelman, Andrew; Shalizi, Cosma Rohilla

    2013-02-01

    A substantial school in the philosophy of science identifies Bayesian inference with inductive inference and even rationality as such, and seems to be strengthened by the rise and practical success of Bayesian statistics. We argue that the most successful forms of Bayesian statistics do not actually support that particular philosophy but rather accord much better with sophisticated forms of hypothetico-deductivism. We examine the actual role played by prior distributions in Bayesian models, and the crucial aspects of model checking and model revision, which fall outside the scope of Bayesian confirmation theory. We draw on the literature on the consistency of Bayesian updating and also on our experience of applied work in social science. Clarity about these matters should benefit not just philosophy of science, but also statistical practice. At best, the inductivist view has encouraged researchers to fit and compare models without checking them; at worst, theorists have actively discouraged practitioners from performing model checking because it does not fit into their framework. © 2012 The British Psychological Society.

  5. Fruit production and branching density affect shoot and whole-tree wood to leaf biomass ratio in olive.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosati, Adolfo; Paoletti, Andrea; Al Hariri, Raeed; Famiani, Franco

    2018-02-14

    The amount of shoot stem (i.e., woody part of the shoot) dry matter per unit shoot leaf dry matter (i.e., the shoot wood to leaf biomass ratio) has been reported to be lower in short shoots than in long ones, and this is related to the greater and earlier ability of short shoots to export carbon. This is important in fruit trees, since the greater and earlier carbon export ability of shoots with a lower wood to leaf biomass ratio improves fruit production. This ratio may vary with cultivars, training systems or plant age, but no study has previously investigated the possible effect of fruit production. In this study on two olive cultivars (i.e., Arbequina, with low growth rate, and Frantoio, with high growth rate) subject to different fruit production treatments, we found that at increasing fruit production, shoot length and shoot wood to leaf biomass ratio were proportionally reduced in the new shoots growing at the same time as the fruit. Specifically, fruit production proportionally reduced total new-shoot biomass, length, leaf area and average shoot length. With decreasing shoot length, shoot diameter, stem mass, internode length, individual leaf area and shoot wood to leaf biomass ratio also decreased. This may be viewed as a plant strategy to better support fruit growth in the current year, given the greater and earlier ability of short shoots to export carbon. Moreover, at the whole-tree level, the percentage of total tree biomass production invested in leaves was closely correlated with branching density, which differed significantly across cultivars. By branching more, Arbequina concentrates more shoots (thus leaves) per unit of wood (trunk, branches and root) mass, decreasing wood to leaf biomass ratio at the whole-tree level. Therefore, while, at the shoot level, shoot length determines shoot wood to leaf biomass ratio, at the canopy level branching density is also an important determinant of whole-tree wood to leaf biomass ratio. Whole-tree wood to leaf

  6. Whole-body FDG PET-MR oncologic imaging: pitfalls in clinical interpretation related to inaccurate MR-based attenuation correction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Attenberger, Ulrike; Catana, Ciprian; Chandarana, Hersh; Catalano, Onofrio A; Friedman, Kent; Schonberg, Stefan A; Thrall, James; Salvatore, Marco; Rosen, Bruce R; Guimaraes, Alexander R

    2015-08-01

    Simultaneous data collection for positron emission tomography and magnetic resonance imaging (PET/MR) is now a reality. While the full benefits of concurrently acquiring PET and MR data and the potential added clinical value are still being evaluated, initial studies have identified several important potential pitfalls in the interpretation of fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) PET/MRI in oncologic whole-body imaging, the majority of which being related to the errors in the attenuation maps created from the MR data. The purpose of this article was to present such pitfalls and artifacts using case examples, describe their etiology, and discuss strategies to overcome them. Using a case-based approach, we will illustrate artifacts related to (1) Inaccurate bone tissue segmentation; (2) Inaccurate air cavities segmentation; (3) Motion-induced misregistration; (4) RF coils in the PET field of view; (5) B0 field inhomogeneity; (6) B1 field inhomogeneity; (7) Metallic implants; (8) MR contrast agents.

  7. Automated Bayesian model development for frequency detection in biological time series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oldroyd Giles ED

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A first step in building a mathematical model of a biological system is often the analysis of the temporal behaviour of key quantities. Mathematical relationships between the time and frequency domain, such as Fourier Transforms and wavelets, are commonly used to extract information about the underlying signal from a given time series. This one-to-one mapping from time points to frequencies inherently assumes that both domains contain the complete knowledge of the system. However, for truncated, noisy time series with background trends this unique mapping breaks down and the question reduces to an inference problem of identifying the most probable frequencies. Results In this paper we build on the method of Bayesian Spectrum Analysis and demonstrate its advantages over conventional methods by applying it to a number of test cases, including two types of biological time series. Firstly, oscillations of calcium in plant root cells in response to microbial symbionts are non-stationary and noisy, posing challenges to data analysis. Secondly, circadian rhythms in gene expression measured over only two cycles highlights the problem of time series with limited length. The results show that the Bayesian frequency detection approach can provide useful results in specific areas where Fourier analysis can be uninformative or misleading. We demonstrate further benefits of the Bayesian approach for time series analysis, such as direct comparison of different hypotheses, inherent estimation of noise levels and parameter precision, and a flexible framework for modelling the data without pre-processing. Conclusions Modelling in systems biology often builds on the study of time-dependent phenomena. Fourier Transforms are a convenient tool for analysing the frequency domain of time series. However, there are well-known limitations of this method, such as the introduction of spurious frequencies when handling short and noisy time series, and

  8. Automated Bayesian model development for frequency detection in biological time series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granqvist, Emma; Oldroyd, Giles E D; Morris, Richard J

    2011-06-24

    A first step in building a mathematical model of a biological system is often the analysis of the temporal behaviour of key quantities. Mathematical relationships between the time and frequency domain, such as Fourier Transforms and wavelets, are commonly used to extract information about the underlying signal from a given time series. This one-to-one mapping from time points to frequencies inherently assumes that both domains contain the complete knowledge of the system. However, for truncated, noisy time series with background trends this unique mapping breaks down and the question reduces to an inference problem of identifying the most probable frequencies. In this paper we build on the method of Bayesian Spectrum Analysis and demonstrate its advantages over conventional methods by applying it to a number of test cases, including two types of biological time series. Firstly, oscillations of calcium in plant root cells in response to microbial symbionts are non-stationary and noisy, posing challenges to data analysis. Secondly, circadian rhythms in gene expression measured over only two cycles highlights the problem of time series with limited length. The results show that the Bayesian frequency detection approach can provide useful results in specific areas where Fourier analysis can be uninformative or misleading. We demonstrate further benefits of the Bayesian approach for time series analysis, such as direct comparison of different hypotheses, inherent estimation of noise levels and parameter precision, and a flexible framework for modelling the data without pre-processing. Modelling in systems biology often builds on the study of time-dependent phenomena. Fourier Transforms are a convenient tool for analysing the frequency domain of time series. However, there are well-known limitations of this method, such as the introduction of spurious frequencies when handling short and noisy time series, and the requirement for uniformly sampled data. Biological time

  9. Bayesian Utilitarianism

    OpenAIRE

    ZHOU, Lin

    1996-01-01

    In this paper I consider social choices under uncertainty. I prove that any social choice rule that satisfies independence of irrelevant alternatives, translation invariance, and weak anonymity is consistent with ex post Bayesian utilitarianism

  10. A Practical pedestrian approach to parsimonious regression with inaccurate inputs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seppo Karrila

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available A measurement result often dictates an interval containing the correct value. Interval data is also created by roundoff, truncation, and binning. We focus on such common interval uncertainty in data. Inaccuracy in model inputs is typically ignored on model fitting. We provide a practical approach for regression with inaccurate data: the mathematics is easy, and the linear programming formulations simple to use even in a spreadsheet. This self-contained elementary presentation introduces interval linear systems and requires only basic knowledge of algebra. Feature selection is automatic; but can be controlled to find only a few most relevant inputs; and joint feature selection is enabled for multiple modeled outputs. With more features than cases, a novel connection to compressed sensing emerges: robustness against interval errors-in-variables implies model parsimony, and the input inaccuracies determine the regularization term. A small numerical example highlights counterintuitive results and a dramatic difference to total least squares.

  11. Learning Bayesian networks for discrete data

    KAUST Repository

    Liang, Faming; Zhang, Jian

    2009-01-01

    Bayesian networks have received much attention in the recent literature. In this article, we propose an approach to learn Bayesian networks using the stochastic approximation Monte Carlo (SAMC) algorithm. Our approach has two nice features. Firstly

  12. Searching Algorithm Using Bayesian Updates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caudle, Kyle

    2010-01-01

    In late October 1967, the USS Scorpion was lost at sea, somewhere between the Azores and Norfolk Virginia. Dr. Craven of the U.S. Navy's Special Projects Division is credited with using Bayesian Search Theory to locate the submarine. Bayesian Search Theory is a straightforward and interesting application of Bayes' theorem which involves searching…

  13. Bayesian estimates of linkage disequilibrium

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abad-Grau María M

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The maximum likelihood estimator of D' – a standard measure of linkage disequilibrium – is biased toward disequilibrium, and the bias is particularly evident in small samples and rare haplotypes. Results This paper proposes a Bayesian estimation of D' to address this problem. The reduction of the bias is achieved by using a prior distribution on the pair-wise associations between single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs that increases the likelihood of equilibrium with increasing physical distances between pairs of SNPs. We show how to compute the Bayesian estimate using a stochastic estimation based on MCMC methods, and also propose a numerical approximation to the Bayesian estimates that can be used to estimate patterns of LD in large datasets of SNPs. Conclusion Our Bayesian estimator of D' corrects the bias toward disequilibrium that affects the maximum likelihood estimator. A consequence of this feature is a more objective view about the extent of linkage disequilibrium in the human genome, and a more realistic number of tagging SNPs to fully exploit the power of genome wide association studies.

  14. Bayesian estimation and use of high-throughput remote sensing indices for quantitative genetic analyses of leaf growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Robert L; Leong, Wen Fung; An, Nan; Brock, Marcus T; Rubin, Matthew J; Welch, Stephen; Weinig, Cynthia

    2018-02-01

    We develop Bayesian function-valued trait models that mathematically isolate genetic mechanisms underlying leaf growth trajectories by factoring out genotype-specific differences in photosynthesis. Remote sensing data can be used instead of leaf-level physiological measurements. Characterizing the genetic basis of traits that vary during ontogeny and affect plant performance is a major goal in evolutionary biology and agronomy. Describing genetic programs that specifically regulate morphological traits can be complicated by genotypic differences in physiological traits. We describe the growth trajectories of leaves using novel Bayesian function-valued trait (FVT) modeling approaches in Brassica rapa recombinant inbred lines raised in heterogeneous field settings. While frequentist approaches estimate parameter values by treating each experimental replicate discretely, Bayesian models can utilize information in the global dataset, potentially leading to more robust trait estimation. We illustrate this principle by estimating growth asymptotes in the face of missing data and comparing heritabilities of growth trajectory parameters estimated by Bayesian and frequentist approaches. Using pseudo-Bayes factors, we compare the performance of an initial Bayesian logistic growth model and a model that incorporates carbon assimilation (A max ) as a cofactor, thus statistically accounting for genotypic differences in carbon resources. We further evaluate two remotely sensed spectroradiometric indices, photochemical reflectance (pri2) and MERIS Terrestrial Chlorophyll Index (mtci) as covariates in lieu of A max , because these two indices were genetically correlated with A max across years and treatments yet allow much higher throughput compared to direct leaf-level gas-exchange measurements. For leaf lengths in uncrowded settings, including A max improves model fit over the initial model. The mtci and pri2 indices also outperform direct A max measurements. Of particular

  15. Dynamics of target recognition by interstitial axon branching along developing cortical axons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bastmeyer, M; O'Leary, D D

    1996-02-15

    Corticospinal axons innervate their midbrain, hindbrain, and spinal targets by extending collateral branches interstitially along their length. To establish that the axon shaft rather than the axonal growth cone is responsible for target recognition in this system, and to characterize the dynamics of interstitial branch formation, we have studied this process in an in vivo-like setting using slice cultures from neonatal mice containing the entire pathway of corticospinal axons. Corticospinal axons labeled with the dye 1,1'-dioctodecyl-3,3,3',3'-tetramethylindocarbocyanine perchlorate (or Dil) were imaged using time-lapse video microscopy of their pathway overlying the basilar pons, their major hindbrain target. The axon shaft millimeters behind the growth cone exhibits several dynamic behaviors, including the de novo formation of varicosities and filopodia-like extensions, and a behavior that we term "pulsation," which is characterized by a variable thickening and thining of short segments of the axon. An individual axon can have multiple sites of branching activity, with many of the branches being transient. These dynamic behaviors occur along the portion of the axon shaft overlying the basilar pons, but not just caudal to it. Once the collaterals extend into the pontine neuropil, they branch further in the neuropil, while the parent axon becomes quiescent. Thus, the branching activity is spatially restricted to specific portions of the axon, as well as temporally restricted to a relatively brief time window. These findings provide definitive evidence that collateral branches form de novo along corticospinal axons and establish that the process of target recognition in this system is a property of the axon shaft rather than the leading growth cone.

  16. Learning Bayesian networks for discrete data

    KAUST Repository

    Liang, Faming

    2009-02-01

    Bayesian networks have received much attention in the recent literature. In this article, we propose an approach to learn Bayesian networks using the stochastic approximation Monte Carlo (SAMC) algorithm. Our approach has two nice features. Firstly, it possesses the self-adjusting mechanism and thus avoids essentially the local-trap problem suffered by conventional MCMC simulation-based approaches in learning Bayesian networks. Secondly, it falls into the class of dynamic importance sampling algorithms; the network features can be inferred by dynamically weighted averaging the samples generated in the learning process, and the resulting estimates can have much lower variation than the single model-based estimates. The numerical results indicate that our approach can mix much faster over the space of Bayesian networks than the conventional MCMC simulation-based approaches. © 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Entanglement branching operator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harada, Kenji

    2018-01-01

    We introduce an entanglement branching operator to split a composite entanglement flow in a tensor network which is a promising theoretical tool for many-body systems. We can optimize an entanglement branching operator by solving a minimization problem based on squeezing operators. The entanglement branching is a new useful operation to manipulate a tensor network. For example, finding a particular entanglement structure by an entanglement branching operator, we can improve a higher-order tensor renormalization group method to catch a proper renormalization flow in a tensor network space. This new method yields a new type of tensor network states. The second example is a many-body decomposition of a tensor by using an entanglement branching operator. We can use it for a perfect disentangling among tensors. Applying a many-body decomposition recursively, we conceptually derive projected entangled pair states from quantum states that satisfy the area law of entanglement entropy.

  18. Chronic caffeine consumption prevents cognitive decline from young to middle age in rats, and is associated with increased length, branching, and spine density of basal dendrites in CA1 hippocampal neurons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vila-Luna, S; Cabrera-Isidoro, S; Vila-Luna, L; Juárez-Díaz, I; Bata-García, J L; Alvarez-Cervera, F J; Zapata-Vázquez, R E; Arankowsky-Sandoval, G; Heredia-López, F; Flores, G; Góngora-Alfaro, J L

    2012-01-27

    Chronic caffeine consumption has been inversely associated with the risk of developing dementia and Alzheimer's disease. Here we assessed whether chronic caffeine treatment prevents the behavioral and cognitive decline that male Wistar rats experience from young (≈3 months) to middle age (≈10 months). When animals were young they were evaluated at weekly intervals in three tests: motor activity habituation in the open field (30-min sessions at the same time on consecutive days), continuous spontaneous alternation in the Y-maze (8 min), and elevated plus-maze (5 min). Afterward, rats from the same litter were randomly assigned either to a caffeine-treated group (n=13) or a control group (n=11), which received only tap water. Caffeine treatment (5 mg/kg/day) began when animals were ≈4 months old, and lasted for 6 months. Behavioral tests were repeated from day 14 to day 28 after caffeine withdrawal, a time period that is far in excess for the full excretion of a caffeine dose in this species. Thirty days after caffeine discontinuation brains were processed for Golgi-Cox staining. Compared with controls, we found that middle-aged rats that had chronically consumed low doses of caffeine (1) maintained their locomotor habituation during the second consecutive day exposure to the open field (an index of non-associative learning), (2) maintained their exploratory drive to complete the conventional minimum of nine arm visits required to calculate the alternation performance in the Y-maze in a greater proportion, (3) maintained their alternation percentage above chance level (an index of working memory), and (4) did not increase the anxiety indexes assessed by measuring the time spent in the open arms of the elevated plus maze. In addition, morphometric analysis of hippocampal neurons revealed that dendritic branching (90-140 μm from the soma), length of 4th and 5th order branches, total dendritic length, and spine density in distal dendritic branches were greater in

  19. A default Bayesian hypothesis test for ANOVA designs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wetzels, R.; Grasman, R.P.P.P.; Wagenmakers, E.J.

    2012-01-01

    This article presents a Bayesian hypothesis test for analysis of variance (ANOVA) designs. The test is an application of standard Bayesian methods for variable selection in regression models. We illustrate the effect of various g-priors on the ANOVA hypothesis test. The Bayesian test for ANOVA

  20. Bayesian Networks An Introduction

    CERN Document Server

    Koski, Timo

    2009-01-01

    Bayesian Networks: An Introduction provides a self-contained introduction to the theory and applications of Bayesian networks, a topic of interest and importance for statisticians, computer scientists and those involved in modelling complex data sets. The material has been extensively tested in classroom teaching and assumes a basic knowledge of probability, statistics and mathematics. All notions are carefully explained and feature exercises throughout. Features include:.: An introduction to Dirichlet Distribution, Exponential Families and their applications.; A detailed description of learni

  1. A default Bayesian hypothesis test for mediation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nuijten, Michèle B; Wetzels, Ruud; Matzke, Dora; Dolan, Conor V; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

    2015-03-01

    In order to quantify the relationship between multiple variables, researchers often carry out a mediation analysis. In such an analysis, a mediator (e.g., knowledge of a healthy diet) transmits the effect from an independent variable (e.g., classroom instruction on a healthy diet) to a dependent variable (e.g., consumption of fruits and vegetables). Almost all mediation analyses in psychology use frequentist estimation and hypothesis-testing techniques. A recent exception is Yuan and MacKinnon (Psychological Methods, 14, 301-322, 2009), who outlined a Bayesian parameter estimation procedure for mediation analysis. Here we complete the Bayesian alternative to frequentist mediation analysis by specifying a default Bayesian hypothesis test based on the Jeffreys-Zellner-Siow approach. We further extend this default Bayesian test by allowing a comparison to directional or one-sided alternatives, using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques implemented in JAGS. All Bayesian tests are implemented in the R package BayesMed (Nuijten, Wetzels, Matzke, Dolan, & Wagenmakers, 2014).

  2. A Bayesian model for binary Markov chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Belkheir Essebbar

    2004-02-01

    Full Text Available This note is concerned with Bayesian estimation of the transition probabilities of a binary Markov chain observed from heterogeneous individuals. The model is founded on the Jeffreys' prior which allows for transition probabilities to be correlated. The Bayesian estimator is approximated by means of Monte Carlo Markov chain (MCMC techniques. The performance of the Bayesian estimates is illustrated by analyzing a small simulated data set.

  3. Protein kinase A is involved in the control of morphology and branching during aerobic growth of Mucor circinelloides

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lübbehüsen, Tina Louise; Polo, V.G.; Rossi, S.

    2004-01-01

    and colony morphology suggested a role for PKAR in the control of morphology and branching. Here strain KFA121, which overexpresses the M. circinelloides pkaR gene, was used to quantify growth and branching under different aerobic growth conditions in a flow-through cell by computerized image analysis....... An inverse relationship between the pkaR expression level in KFA121 and the hyphal growth unit length was observed in KFA121, suggesting a central role for PKAR in branching. A biochemical analysis of PKAR using antibodies and enzyme assay demonstrated that the level of PKAR is higher in KFA121 under...... indicate that cAMP-dependent PKA in M. circinelloides might be down-regulated during hyphal-tube emergence and that an increase in PKAR levels results in increased branching....

  4. Inference in hybrid Bayesian networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lanseth, Helge; Nielsen, Thomas Dyhre; Rumí, Rafael

    2009-01-01

    Since the 1980s, Bayesian Networks (BNs) have become increasingly popular for building statistical models of complex systems. This is particularly true for boolean systems, where BNs often prove to be a more efficient modelling framework than traditional reliability-techniques (like fault trees...... decade's research on inference in hybrid Bayesian networks. The discussions are linked to an example model for estimating human reliability....

  5. Bayesian theory and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Dellaportas, Petros; Polson, Nicholas G; Stephens, David A

    2013-01-01

    The development of hierarchical models and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques forms one of the most profound advances in Bayesian analysis since the 1970s and provides the basis for advances in virtually all areas of applied and theoretical Bayesian statistics. This volume guides the reader along a statistical journey that begins with the basic structure of Bayesian theory, and then provides details on most of the past and present advances in this field. The book has a unique format. There is an explanatory chapter devoted to each conceptual advance followed by journal-style chapters that provide applications or further advances on the concept. Thus, the volume is both a textbook and a compendium of papers covering a vast range of topics. It is appropriate for a well-informed novice interested in understanding the basic approach, methods and recent applications. Because of its advanced chapters and recent work, it is also appropriate for a more mature reader interested in recent applications and devel...

  6. Branched polynomial covering maps

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Vagn Lundsgaard

    1999-01-01

    A Weierstrass polynomial with multiple roots in certain points leads to a branched covering map. With this as the guiding example, we formally define and study the notion of a branched polynomial covering map. We shall prove that many finite covering maps are polynomial outside a discrete branch...... set. Particular studies are made of branched polynomial covering maps arising from Riemann surfaces and from knots in the 3-sphere....

  7. Estimating the true accuracy of diagnostic tests for dengue infection using bayesian latent class models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wirichada Pan-ngum

    Full Text Available Accuracy of rapid diagnostic tests for dengue infection has been repeatedly estimated by comparing those tests with reference assays. We hypothesized that those estimates might be inaccurate if the accuracy of the reference assays is not perfect. Here, we investigated this using statistical modeling.Data from a cohort study of 549 patients suspected of dengue infection presenting at Colombo North Teaching Hospital, Ragama, Sri Lanka, that described the application of our reference assay (a combination of Dengue IgM antibody capture ELISA and IgG antibody capture ELISA and of three rapid diagnostic tests (Panbio NS1 antigen, IgM antibody and IgG antibody rapid immunochromatographic cassette tests were re-evaluated using bayesian latent class models (LCMs. The estimated sensitivity and specificity of the reference assay were 62.0% and 99.6%, respectively. Prevalence of dengue infection (24.3%, and sensitivities and specificities of the Panbio NS1 (45.9% and 97.9%, IgM (54.5% and 95.5% and IgG (62.1% and 84.5% estimated by bayesian LCMs were significantly different from those estimated by assuming that the reference assay was perfect. Sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV for a combination of NS1, IgM and IgG cassette tests on admission samples were 87.0%, 82.8%, 62.0% and 95.2%, respectively.Our reference assay is an imperfect gold standard. In our setting, the combination of NS1, IgM and IgG rapid diagnostic tests could be used on admission to rule out dengue infection with a high level of accuracy (NPV 95.2%. Further evaluation of rapid diagnostic tests for dengue infection should include the use of appropriate statistical models.

  8. Universal Darwinism As a Process of Bayesian Inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, John O

    2016-01-01

    Many of the mathematical frameworks describing natural selection are equivalent to Bayes' Theorem, also known as Bayesian updating. By definition, a process of Bayesian Inference is one which involves a Bayesian update, so we may conclude that these frameworks describe natural selection as a process of Bayesian inference. Thus, natural selection serves as a counter example to a widely-held interpretation that restricts Bayesian Inference to human mental processes (including the endeavors of statisticians). As Bayesian inference can always be cast in terms of (variational) free energy minimization, natural selection can be viewed as comprising two components: a generative model of an "experiment" in the external world environment, and the results of that "experiment" or the "surprise" entailed by predicted and actual outcomes of the "experiment." Minimization of free energy implies that the implicit measure of "surprise" experienced serves to update the generative model in a Bayesian manner. This description closely accords with the mechanisms of generalized Darwinian process proposed both by Dawkins, in terms of replicators and vehicles, and Campbell, in terms of inferential systems. Bayesian inference is an algorithm for the accumulation of evidence-based knowledge. This algorithm is now seen to operate over a wide range of evolutionary processes, including natural selection, the evolution of mental models and cultural evolutionary processes, notably including science itself. The variational principle of free energy minimization may thus serve as a unifying mathematical framework for universal Darwinism, the study of evolutionary processes operating throughout nature.

  9. Morphometry of medial gaps of human brain artery branches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canham, Peter B; Finlay, Helen M

    2004-05-01

    The bifurcation regions of the major human cerebral arteries are vulnerable to the formation of saccular aneurysms. A consistent feature of these bifurcations is a discontinuity of the tunica media at the apex of the flow divider. The objective was to measure the 3-dimensional geometry of these medial gaps or "medial defects." Nineteen bifurcations and 2 junctions of human cerebral arteries branches (from 4 male and 2 female subjects) were formalin-fixed at physiological pressure and processed for longitudinal serial sectioning. The apex and adjacent regions were examined and measurements were made from high-magnification photomicrographs, or projection microscope images, of the gap dimensions at multiple levels through the bifurcation. Plots were made of the width of the media as a function of distance from the apex. The media at each edge of the medial gap widened over a short distance, reaching the full width of the media of the contiguous daughter vessel. Medial gap dimensions were compared with the planar angle of the bifurcation, and a strong negative correlation was found, ie, the acute angled branches have the more prominent medial gaps. A discontinuity of the media at the apex was seen in all the bifurcations examined and was also found in the junction regions of brain arteries. We determined that the gap width is continuous with well-defined dimensions throughout its length and average length-to-width ratio of 6.9. The gaps were generally centered on the prominence of the apical ridge.

  10. Daniel Goodman’s empirical approach to Bayesian statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerrodette, Tim; Ward, Eric; Taylor, Rebecca L.; Schwarz, Lisa K.; Eguchi, Tomoharu; Wade, Paul; Himes Boor, Gina

    2016-01-01

    Bayesian statistics, in contrast to classical statistics, uses probability to represent uncertainty about the state of knowledge. Bayesian statistics has often been associated with the idea that knowledge is subjective and that a probability distribution represents a personal degree of belief. Dr. Daniel Goodman considered this viewpoint problematic for issues of public policy. He sought to ground his Bayesian approach in data, and advocated the construction of a prior as an empirical histogram of “similar” cases. In this way, the posterior distribution that results from a Bayesian analysis combined comparable previous data with case-specific current data, using Bayes’ formula. Goodman championed such a data-based approach, but he acknowledged that it was difficult in practice. If based on a true representation of our knowledge and uncertainty, Goodman argued that risk assessment and decision-making could be an exact science, despite the uncertainties. In his view, Bayesian statistics is a critical component of this science because a Bayesian analysis produces the probabilities of future outcomes. Indeed, Goodman maintained that the Bayesian machinery, following the rules of conditional probability, offered the best legitimate inference from available data. We give an example of an informative prior in a recent study of Steller sea lion spatial use patterns in Alaska.

  11. Approximation methods for efficient learning of Bayesian networks

    CERN Document Server

    Riggelsen, C

    2008-01-01

    This publication offers and investigates efficient Monte Carlo simulation methods in order to realize a Bayesian approach to approximate learning of Bayesian networks from both complete and incomplete data. For large amounts of incomplete data when Monte Carlo methods are inefficient, approximations are implemented, such that learning remains feasible, albeit non-Bayesian. The topics discussed are: basic concepts about probabilities, graph theory and conditional independence; Bayesian network learning from data; Monte Carlo simulation techniques; and, the concept of incomplete data. In order to provide a coherent treatment of matters, thereby helping the reader to gain a thorough understanding of the whole concept of learning Bayesian networks from (in)complete data, this publication combines in a clarifying way all the issues presented in the papers with previously unpublished work.

  12. Bayesian community detection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mørup, Morten; Schmidt, Mikkel N

    2012-01-01

    Many networks of scientific interest naturally decompose into clusters or communities with comparatively fewer external than internal links; however, current Bayesian models of network communities do not exert this intuitive notion of communities. We formulate a nonparametric Bayesian model...... for community detection consistent with an intuitive definition of communities and present a Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure for inferring the community structure. A Matlab toolbox with the proposed inference procedure is available for download. On synthetic and real networks, our model detects communities...... consistent with ground truth, and on real networks, it outperforms existing approaches in predicting missing links. This suggests that community structure is an important structural property of networks that should be explicitly modeled....

  13. Inverse Problems in a Bayesian Setting

    KAUST Repository

    Matthies, Hermann G.

    2016-02-13

    In a Bayesian setting, inverse problems and uncertainty quantification (UQ)—the propagation of uncertainty through a computational (forward) model—are strongly connected. In the form of conditional expectation the Bayesian update becomes computationally attractive. We give a detailed account of this approach via conditional approximation, various approximations, and the construction of filters. Together with a functional or spectral approach for the forward UQ there is no need for time-consuming and slowly convergent Monte Carlo sampling. The developed sampling-free non-linear Bayesian update in form of a filter is derived from the variational problem associated with conditional expectation. This formulation in general calls for further discretisation to make the computation possible, and we choose a polynomial approximation. After giving details on the actual computation in the framework of functional or spectral approximations, we demonstrate the workings of the algorithm on a number of examples of increasing complexity. At last, we compare the linear and nonlinear Bayesian update in form of a filter on some examples.

  14. Inverse Problems in a Bayesian Setting

    KAUST Repository

    Matthies, Hermann G.; Zander, Elmar; Rosić, Bojana V.; Litvinenko, Alexander; Pajonk, Oliver

    2016-01-01

    In a Bayesian setting, inverse problems and uncertainty quantification (UQ)—the propagation of uncertainty through a computational (forward) model—are strongly connected. In the form of conditional expectation the Bayesian update becomes computationally attractive. We give a detailed account of this approach via conditional approximation, various approximations, and the construction of filters. Together with a functional or spectral approach for the forward UQ there is no need for time-consuming and slowly convergent Monte Carlo sampling. The developed sampling-free non-linear Bayesian update in form of a filter is derived from the variational problem associated with conditional expectation. This formulation in general calls for further discretisation to make the computation possible, and we choose a polynomial approximation. After giving details on the actual computation in the framework of functional or spectral approximations, we demonstrate the workings of the algorithm on a number of examples of increasing complexity. At last, we compare the linear and nonlinear Bayesian update in form of a filter on some examples.

  15. Implementing the Bayesian paradigm in risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aven, T.; Kvaloey, J.T.

    2002-01-01

    The Bayesian paradigm comprises a unified and consistent framework for analyzing and expressing risk. Yet, we see rather few examples of applications where the full Bayesian setting has been adopted with specifications of priors of unknown parameters. In this paper, we discuss some of the practical challenges of implementing Bayesian thinking and methods in risk analysis, emphasizing the introduction of probability models and parameters and associated uncertainty assessments. We conclude that there is a need for a pragmatic view in order to 'successfully' apply the Bayesian approach, such that we can do the assignments of some of the probabilities without adopting the somewhat sophisticated procedure of specifying prior distributions of parameters. A simple risk analysis example is presented to illustrate ideas

  16. Optimized Ultrawideband and Uniplanar Minkowski Fractal Branch Line Coupler

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Jahanbakht

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The non-Euclidean Minkowski fractal geometry is used in design, optimization, and fabrication of an ultrawideband (UWB branch line coupler. Self-similarities of the fractal geometries make them act like an infinite length in a finite area. This property creates a smaller design with broader bandwidth. The designed 3 dB microstrip coupler has a single layer and uniplanar platform with quite easy fabrication process. This optimized 180° coupler also shows a perfect isolation and insertion loss over the UWB frequency range of 3.1–10.6 GHz.

  17. Interactive Instruction in Bayesian Inference

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Khan, Azam; Breslav, Simon; Hornbæk, Kasper

    2018-01-01

    An instructional approach is presented to improve human performance in solving Bayesian inference problems. Starting from the original text of the classic Mammography Problem, the textual expression is modified and visualizations are added according to Mayer’s principles of instruction. These pri......An instructional approach is presented to improve human performance in solving Bayesian inference problems. Starting from the original text of the classic Mammography Problem, the textual expression is modified and visualizations are added according to Mayer’s principles of instruction....... These principles concern coherence, personalization, signaling, segmenting, multimedia, spatial contiguity, and pretraining. Principles of self-explanation and interactivity are also applied. Four experiments on the Mammography Problem showed that these principles help participants answer the questions...... that an instructional approach to improving human performance in Bayesian inference is a promising direction....

  18. Universal Darwinism as a process of Bayesian inference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Oberon Campbell

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Many of the mathematical frameworks describing natural selection are equivalent to Bayes’ Theorem, also known as Bayesian updating. By definition, a process of Bayesian Inference is one which involves a Bayesian update, so we may conclude that these frameworks describe natural selection as a process of Bayesian inference. Thus natural selection serves as a counter example to a widely-held interpretation that restricts Bayesian Inference to human mental processes (including the endeavors of statisticians. As Bayesian inference can always be cast in terms of (variational free energy minimization, natural selection can be viewed as comprising two components: a generative model of an ‘experiment’ in the external world environment, and the results of that 'experiment' or the 'surprise' entailed by predicted and actual outcomes of the ‘experiment’. Minimization of free energy implies that the implicit measure of 'surprise' experienced serves to update the generative model in a Bayesian manner. This description closely accords with the mechanisms of generalized Darwinian process proposed both by Dawkins, in terms of replicators and vehicles, and Campbell, in terms of inferential systems. Bayesian inference is an algorithm for the accumulation of evidence-based knowledge. This algorithm is now seen to operate over a wide range of evolutionary processes, including natural selection, the evolution of mental models and cultural evolutionary processes, notably including science itself. The variational principle of free energy minimization may thus serve as a unifying mathematical framework for universal Darwinism, the study of evolutionary processes operating throughout nature.

  19. Semi-automated tabulation of the 3D topology and morphology of branching networks using CT: application to the airway tree

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sauret, V.; Bailey, A.G.

    1999-01-01

    Detailed information on biological branching networks (optical nerves, airways or blood vessels) is often required to improve the analysis of 3D medical imaging data. A semi-automated algorithm has been developed to obtain the full 3D topology and dimensions (direction cosine, length, diameter, branching and gravity angles) of branching networks using their CT images. It has been tested using CT images of a simple Perspex branching network and applied to the CT images of a human cast of the airway tree. The morphology and topology of the computer derived network were compared with the manually measured dimensions. Good agreement was found. The airways dimensions also compared well with previous values quoted in literature. This algorithm can provide complete data set analysis much more quickly than manual measurements. Its use is limited by the CT resolution which means that very small branches are not visible. New data are presented on the branching angles of the airway tree. (author)

  20. Bayesian analysis of magnetic island dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Preuss, R.; Maraschek, M.; Zohm, H.; Dose, V.

    2003-01-01

    We examine a first order differential equation with respect to time used to describe magnetic islands in magnetically confined plasmas. The free parameters of this equation are obtained by employing Bayesian probability theory. Additionally, a typical Bayesian change point is solved in the process of obtaining the data

  1. Neuro-Oncology Branch

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... BTTC are experts in their respective fields. Neuro-Oncology Clinical Fellowship This is a joint program with ... can increase survival rates. Learn more... The Neuro-Oncology Branch welcomes Dr. Mark Gilbert as new Branch ...

  2. Bayesian ensemble refinement by replica simulations and reweighting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hummer, Gerhard; Köfinger, Jürgen

    2015-12-01

    We describe different Bayesian ensemble refinement methods, examine their interrelation, and discuss their practical application. With ensemble refinement, the properties of dynamic and partially disordered (bio)molecular structures can be characterized by integrating a wide range of experimental data, including measurements of ensemble-averaged observables. We start from a Bayesian formulation in which the posterior is a functional that ranks different configuration space distributions. By maximizing this posterior, we derive an optimal Bayesian ensemble distribution. For discrete configurations, this optimal distribution is identical to that obtained by the maximum entropy "ensemble refinement of SAXS" (EROS) formulation. Bayesian replica ensemble refinement enhances the sampling of relevant configurations by imposing restraints on averages of observables in coupled replica molecular dynamics simulations. We show that the strength of the restraints should scale linearly with the number of replicas to ensure convergence to the optimal Bayesian result in the limit of infinitely many replicas. In the "Bayesian inference of ensembles" method, we combine the replica and EROS approaches to accelerate the convergence. An adaptive algorithm can be used to sample directly from the optimal ensemble, without replicas. We discuss the incorporation of single-molecule measurements and dynamic observables such as relaxation parameters. The theoretical analysis of different Bayesian ensemble refinement approaches provides a basis for practical applications and a starting point for further investigations.

  3. Bayesian Decision Theoretical Framework for Clustering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Mo

    2011-01-01

    In this thesis, we establish a novel probabilistic framework for the data clustering problem from the perspective of Bayesian decision theory. The Bayesian decision theory view justifies the important questions: what is a cluster and what a clustering algorithm should optimize. We prove that the spectral clustering (to be specific, the…

  4. Factors affecting branch wound occlusion and associated decay following pruning – a case study with wild cherry (Prunus avium L.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathan Sheppard

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Pruning wild cherry (Prunus avium L. is a common silvicultural practice carried out to produce valuable timber at a veneer wood quality. Sub-optimal pruning treatments can permit un-occluded pruning wounds to develop devaluing decay. The aim of this study is to determine relevant branch, tree and pruning characteristics affecting the occlusion process of pruning wounds. Important factors influencing occlusion time for an optimised pruning treatment for valuable timber production utilising wild cherry are derived. 85 artificially pruned branches originating from ten wild cherry trees were retrospectively analysed. Branch stub length, branch diameter and radial stem increment during occlusion were found to be significant predictors for occlusion time. From the results it could be concluded that for the long term success of artificial pruning of wild cherry it is crucial to (i keep branch stubs short (while avoiding damage to the branch collar, (ii to enable the tree to maintain significant radial growth after pruning, (iii to avoid large pruning wounds (>2.5 cm by removing steeply angled and fast growing branches at an early stage.

  5. Bundle Branch Block

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... known cause. Causes can include: Left bundle branch block Heart attacks (myocardial infarction) Thickened, stiffened or weakened ... myocarditis) High blood pressure (hypertension) Right bundle branch block A heart abnormality that's present at birth (congenital) — ...

  6. Quantum-Like Representation of Non-Bayesian Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asano, M.; Basieva, I.; Khrennikov, A.; Ohya, M.; Tanaka, Y.

    2013-01-01

    This research is related to the problem of "irrational decision making or inference" that have been discussed in cognitive psychology. There are some experimental studies, and these statistical data cannot be described by classical probability theory. The process of decision making generating these data cannot be reduced to the classical Bayesian inference. For this problem, a number of quantum-like coginitive models of decision making was proposed. Our previous work represented in a natural way the classical Bayesian inference in the frame work of quantum mechanics. By using this representation, in this paper, we try to discuss the non-Bayesian (irrational) inference that is biased by effects like the quantum interference. Further, we describe "psychological factor" disturbing "rationality" as an "environment" correlating with the "main system" of usual Bayesian inference.

  7. Correct Bayesian and frequentist intervals are similar

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atwood, C.L.

    1986-01-01

    This paper argues that Bayesians and frequentists will normally reach numerically similar conclusions, when dealing with vague data or sparse data. It is shown that both statistical methodologies can deal reasonably with vague data. With sparse data, in many important practical cases Bayesian interval estimates and frequentist confidence intervals are approximately equal, although with discrete data the frequentist intervals are somewhat longer. This is not to say that the two methodologies are equally easy to use: The construction of a frequentist confidence interval may require new theoretical development. Bayesians methods typically require numerical integration, perhaps over many variables. Also, Bayesian can easily fall into the trap of over-optimism about their amount of prior knowledge. But in cases where both intervals are found correctly, the two intervals are usually not very different. (orig.)

  8. Using consensus bayesian network to model the reactive oxygen species regulatory pathway.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liangdong Hu

    Full Text Available Bayesian network is one of the most successful graph models for representing the reactive oxygen species regulatory pathway. With the increasing number of microarray measurements, it is possible to construct the bayesian network from microarray data directly. Although large numbers of bayesian network learning algorithms have been developed, when applying them to learn bayesian networks from microarray data, the accuracies are low due to that the databases they used to learn bayesian networks contain too few microarray data. In this paper, we propose a consensus bayesian network which is constructed by combining bayesian networks from relevant literatures and bayesian networks learned from microarray data. It would have a higher accuracy than the bayesian networks learned from one database. In the experiment, we validated the bayesian network combination algorithm on several classic machine learning databases and used the consensus bayesian network to model the Escherichia coli's ROS pathway.

  9. Bayesian analysis of rare events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Straub, Daniel, E-mail: straub@tum.de; Papaioannou, Iason; Betz, Wolfgang

    2016-06-01

    In many areas of engineering and science there is an interest in predicting the probability of rare events, in particular in applications related to safety and security. Increasingly, such predictions are made through computer models of physical systems in an uncertainty quantification framework. Additionally, with advances in IT, monitoring and sensor technology, an increasing amount of data on the performance of the systems is collected. This data can be used to reduce uncertainty, improve the probability estimates and consequently enhance the management of rare events and associated risks. Bayesian analysis is the ideal method to include the data into the probabilistic model. It ensures a consistent probabilistic treatment of uncertainty, which is central in the prediction of rare events, where extrapolation from the domain of observation is common. We present a framework for performing Bayesian updating of rare event probabilities, termed BUS. It is based on a reinterpretation of the classical rejection-sampling approach to Bayesian analysis, which enables the use of established methods for estimating probabilities of rare events. By drawing upon these methods, the framework makes use of their computational efficiency. These methods include the First-Order Reliability Method (FORM), tailored importance sampling (IS) methods and Subset Simulation (SuS). In this contribution, we briefly review these methods in the context of the BUS framework and investigate their applicability to Bayesian analysis of rare events in different settings. We find that, for some applications, FORM can be highly efficient and is surprisingly accurate, enabling Bayesian analysis of rare events with just a few model evaluations. In a general setting, BUS implemented through IS and SuS is more robust and flexible.

  10. Bayesian models a statistical primer for ecologists

    CERN Document Server

    Hobbs, N Thompson

    2015-01-01

    Bayesian modeling has become an indispensable tool for ecological research because it is uniquely suited to deal with complexity in a statistically coherent way. This textbook provides a comprehensive and accessible introduction to the latest Bayesian methods-in language ecologists can understand. Unlike other books on the subject, this one emphasizes the principles behind the computations, giving ecologists a big-picture understanding of how to implement this powerful statistical approach. Bayesian Models is an essential primer for non-statisticians. It begins with a definition of probabili

  11. Poisson branching point processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsuo, K.; Teich, M.C.; Saleh, B.E.A.

    1984-01-01

    We investigate the statistical properties of a special branching point process. The initial process is assumed to be a homogeneous Poisson point process (HPP). The initiating events at each branching stage are carried forward to the following stage. In addition, each initiating event independently contributes a nonstationary Poisson point process (whose rate is a specified function) located at that point. The additional contributions from all points of a given stage constitute a doubly stochastic Poisson point process (DSPP) whose rate is a filtered version of the initiating point process at that stage. The process studied is a generalization of a Poisson branching process in which random time delays are permitted in the generation of events. Particular attention is given to the limit in which the number of branching stages is infinite while the average number of added events per event of the previous stage is infinitesimal. In the special case when the branching is instantaneous this limit of continuous branching corresponds to the well-known Yule--Furry process with an initial Poisson population. The Poisson branching point process provides a useful description for many problems in various scientific disciplines, such as the behavior of electron multipliers, neutron chain reactions, and cosmic ray showers

  12. Robust Bayesian detection of unmodelled bursts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Searle, Antony C; Sutton, Patrick J; Tinto, Massimo; Woan, Graham

    2008-01-01

    We develop a Bayesian treatment of the problem of detecting unmodelled gravitational wave bursts using the new global network of interferometric detectors. We also compare this Bayesian treatment with existing coherent methods, and demonstrate that the existing methods make implicit assumptions on the distribution of signals that make them sub-optimal for realistic signal populations

  13. ClRTL1 Encodes a Chinese Fir RNase III–Like Protein Involved in Regulating Shoot Branching

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xia Li

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Identification of genes controlling shoot branching is crucial for improving plant architecture and increasing crop yield or biomass. A branching mutant of Chinese fir named “Dugansha” (Cunninghamia lanceolata var. dugan. has been isolated in our laboratory. We chose the cDNA-AFLP technique and an effective strategy to screen genes that potentially regulate shoot branching in Chinese fir using this mutant. An RNase III-like1 cDNA fragment named ClRTL1 was identified as a potential positive regulator. To investigate the function of ClRTL1 in regulating shoot branching, we cloned the full-length cDNA sequence from C. lanceolata (Lamb. Hook, deduced its secondary structure and function, and overexpressed the coding sequence in Arabidopsis. The ClRTL1 cDNA is 1045 bp and comprises an open reading frame of 705 bp. It encodes a protein of 235 amino acids. The deduced secondary structure of the ClRTL1 indicates that it is a mini-RNase III-like protein. The expression analysis and phenotypes of 35S: ClRTL1 in A. thaliana implies that ClRTL1 plays a role in promoting shoot branching in Chinese fir.

  14. BAYESIAN ESTIMATION OF THERMONUCLEAR REACTION RATES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Iliadis, C.; Anderson, K. S. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27599-3255 (United States); Coc, A. [Centre de Sciences Nucléaires et de Sciences de la Matière (CSNSM), CNRS/IN2P3, Univ. Paris-Sud, Université Paris–Saclay, Bâtiment 104, F-91405 Orsay Campus (France); Timmes, F. X.; Starrfield, S., E-mail: iliadis@unc.edu [School of Earth and Space Exploration, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287-1504 (United States)

    2016-11-01

    The problem of estimating non-resonant astrophysical S -factors and thermonuclear reaction rates, based on measured nuclear cross sections, is of major interest for nuclear energy generation, neutrino physics, and element synthesis. Many different methods have been applied to this problem in the past, almost all of them based on traditional statistics. Bayesian methods, on the other hand, are now in widespread use in the physical sciences. In astronomy, for example, Bayesian statistics is applied to the observation of extrasolar planets, gravitational waves, and Type Ia supernovae. However, nuclear physics, in particular, has been slow to adopt Bayesian methods. We present astrophysical S -factors and reaction rates based on Bayesian statistics. We develop a framework that incorporates robust parameter estimation, systematic effects, and non-Gaussian uncertainties in a consistent manner. The method is applied to the reactions d(p, γ ){sup 3}He, {sup 3}He({sup 3}He,2p){sup 4}He, and {sup 3}He( α , γ ){sup 7}Be, important for deuterium burning, solar neutrinos, and Big Bang nucleosynthesis.

  15. Modeling study on axial wetting length of meniscus in vertical rectangular microgrooves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nie, Xuelei; Hu, Xuegong; Tang, Dawei

    2013-01-01

    In this work, the traditional model for predicting axial wetting length of meniscus in vertical microgrooves is introduced firstly. The traditional model may cause inaccurate results in predicting wetting length in vertical microgrooves because of the assumption of round meniscus in cross sections of microgrooves and the way of calculating curvature. In order to develop this model and make it more accurate, a revised micro-PIV system is built to test the meniscus shapes in cross sections of vertical and horizontal microgrooves, and the experimental results prove that the real shapes of meniscus are parabolic other than round. The fitting formulas of meniscus shapes are obtained with software Origin 7.5. Based on experimental results and fitting formulas, the traditional model is revised by changing the way to calculate curvature. In the modified model, the curvature for calculating axial wetting length of meniscus equals average curvature of meniscus in cross section of vertical microgrooves minus the average curvature of meniscus in cross section of horizontal microgrooves. It is proved that the modified model can predict the wetting length in vertical microgrooves better than the original model. The average difference between experiment and modified model is 2.5% while that between experiment and traditional model is 174.2%. The disadvantage of the modified model is that using the new model to predict wetting length needs to know the real shapes of meniscus in vertical and horizontal microgrooves. -- Highlights: ► An experimental system is designed to test the shapes of meniscus in microgrooves. ► The real shapes of meniscus in microgrooves are obtained for first time. ► The shapes of meniscus in microgrooves is compared and analyzed. ► The model for predicting wetting length of meniscus in microgrooves is developed

  16. Prior approval: the growth of Bayesian methods in psychology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrews, Mark; Baguley, Thom

    2013-02-01

    Within the last few years, Bayesian methods of data analysis in psychology have proliferated. In this paper, we briefly review the history or the Bayesian approach to statistics, and consider the implications that Bayesian methods have for the theory and practice of data analysis in psychology.

  17. Branches of the landscape

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dine, Michael; O'Neil, Deva; Sun Zheng

    2005-01-01

    With respect to the question of supersymmetry breaking, there are three branches of the flux landscape. On one of these, if one requires small cosmological constant, supersymmetry breaking is predominantly at the fundamental scale; on another, the distribution is roughly flat on a logarithmic scale; on the third, the preponderance of vacua are at very low scale. A priori, as we will explain, one can say little about the first branch. The vast majority of these states are not accessible even to crude, approximate analysis. On the other two branches one can hope to do better. But as a result of the lack of access to branch one, and our poor understanding of cosmology, we can at best conjecture about whether string theory predicts low energy supersymmetry or not. If we hypothesize that are on branch two or three, distinctive predictions may be possible. We comment of the status of naturalness within the landscape, deriving, for example, the statistics of the first branch from simple effective field theory reasoning

  18. Can a significance test be genuinely Bayesian?

    OpenAIRE

    Pereira, Carlos A. de B.; Stern, Julio Michael; Wechsler, Sergio

    2008-01-01

    The Full Bayesian Significance Test, FBST, is extensively reviewed. Its test statistic, a genuine Bayesian measure of evidence, is discussed in detail. Its behavior in some problems of statistical inference like testing for independence in contingency tables is discussed.

  19. Bayesian image restoration, using configurations

    OpenAIRE

    Thorarinsdottir, Thordis

    2006-01-01

    In this paper, we develop a Bayesian procedure for removing noise from images that can be viewed as noisy realisations of random sets in the plane. The procedure utilises recent advances in configuration theory for noise free random sets, where the probabilities of observing the different boundary configurations are expressed in terms of the mean normal measure of the random set. These probabilities are used as prior probabilities in a Bayesian image restoration approach. Estimation of the re...

  20. Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjærulff, Uffe Bro; Madsen, Anders Læsø

     Probabilistic networks, also known as Bayesian networks and influence diagrams, have become one of the most promising technologies in the area of applied artificial intelligence, offering intuitive, efficient, and reliable methods for diagnosis, prediction, decision making, classification......, troubleshooting, and data mining under uncertainty. Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams: A Guide to Construction and Analysis provides a comprehensive guide for practitioners who wish to understand, construct, and analyze intelligent systems for decision support based on probabilistic networks. Intended...

  1. Compiling Relational Bayesian Networks for Exact Inference

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jaeger, Manfred; Chavira, Mark; Darwiche, Adnan

    2004-01-01

    We describe a system for exact inference with relational Bayesian networks as defined in the publicly available \\primula\\ tool. The system is based on compiling propositional instances of relational Bayesian networks into arithmetic circuits and then performing online inference by evaluating...

  2. Bayesian analysis of CCDM models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jesus, J. F.; Valentim, R.; Andrade-Oliveira, F.

    2017-09-01

    Creation of Cold Dark Matter (CCDM), in the context of Einstein Field Equations, produces a negative pressure term which can be used to explain the accelerated expansion of the Universe. In this work we tested six different spatially flat models for matter creation using statistical criteria, in light of SNe Ia data: Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and Bayesian Evidence (BE). These criteria allow to compare models considering goodness of fit and number of free parameters, penalizing excess of complexity. We find that JO model is slightly favoured over LJO/ΛCDM model, however, neither of these, nor Γ = 3αH0 model can be discarded from the current analysis. Three other scenarios are discarded either because poor fitting or because of the excess of free parameters. A method of increasing Bayesian evidence through reparameterization in order to reducing parameter degeneracy is also developed.

  3. Bayesian analysis of CCDM models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jesus, J.F. [Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp), Câmpus Experimental de Itapeva, Rua Geraldo Alckmin 519, Vila N. Sra. de Fátima, Itapeva, SP, 18409-010 Brazil (Brazil); Valentim, R. [Departamento de Física, Instituto de Ciências Ambientais, Químicas e Farmacêuticas—ICAQF, Universidade Federal de São Paulo (UNIFESP), Unidade José Alencar, Rua São Nicolau No. 210, Diadema, SP, 09913-030 Brazil (Brazil); Andrade-Oliveira, F., E-mail: jfjesus@itapeva.unesp.br, E-mail: valentim.rodolfo@unifesp.br, E-mail: felipe.oliveira@port.ac.uk [Institute of Cosmology and Gravitation—University of Portsmouth, Burnaby Road, Portsmouth, PO1 3FX United Kingdom (United Kingdom)

    2017-09-01

    Creation of Cold Dark Matter (CCDM), in the context of Einstein Field Equations, produces a negative pressure term which can be used to explain the accelerated expansion of the Universe. In this work we tested six different spatially flat models for matter creation using statistical criteria, in light of SNe Ia data: Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and Bayesian Evidence (BE). These criteria allow to compare models considering goodness of fit and number of free parameters, penalizing excess of complexity. We find that JO model is slightly favoured over LJO/ΛCDM model, however, neither of these, nor Γ = 3α H {sub 0} model can be discarded from the current analysis. Three other scenarios are discarded either because poor fitting or because of the excess of free parameters. A method of increasing Bayesian evidence through reparameterization in order to reducing parameter degeneracy is also developed.

  4. Sparse Event Modeling with Hierarchical Bayesian Kernel Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-05

    SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: The research objective of this proposal was to develop a predictive Bayesian kernel approach to model count data based on...several predictive variables. Such an approach, which we refer to as the Poisson Bayesian kernel model, is able to model the rate of occurrence of... kernel methods made use of: (i) the Bayesian property of improving predictive accuracy as data are dynamically obtained, and (ii) the kernel function

  5. Bayesian Inference for Functional Dynamics Exploring in fMRI Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xuan Guo

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to review state-of-the-art Bayesian-inference-based methods applied to functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI data. Particularly, we focus on one specific long-standing challenge in the computational modeling of fMRI datasets: how to effectively explore typical functional interactions from fMRI time series and the corresponding boundaries of temporal segments. Bayesian inference is a method of statistical inference which has been shown to be a powerful tool to encode dependence relationships among the variables with uncertainty. Here we provide an introduction to a group of Bayesian-inference-based methods for fMRI data analysis, which were designed to detect magnitude or functional connectivity change points and to infer their functional interaction patterns based on corresponding temporal boundaries. We also provide a comparison of three popular Bayesian models, that is, Bayesian Magnitude Change Point Model (BMCPM, Bayesian Connectivity Change Point Model (BCCPM, and Dynamic Bayesian Variable Partition Model (DBVPM, and give a summary of their applications. We envision that more delicate Bayesian inference models will be emerging and play increasingly important roles in modeling brain functions in the years to come.

  6. Module for the organization of a branch of the universal branch driver in the CAMAC standard

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nguen Fuk; Smirnov, V.A.; Khmelevski, E.

    1976-01-01

    A module is elaborated for the organization of a branch of the universal branch driver in the CAMAC standard for the conjugation of a control crate trunk with a branch trunk. A block diagram of the module is described; its principal specifications are given. The universal branch driver system may accomodate up to 10 branch organization modules with one control source module

  7. Topological analysis of long-chain branching patterns in polyolefins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonchev, D; Markel, E; Dekmezian, A

    2001-01-01

    Patterns in molecular topology and complexity for long-chain branching are quantitatively described. The Wiener number, the topological complexity index, and a new index of 3-starness are used to quantify polymer structure. General formulas for these indices were derived for the cases of 3-arm star, H-shaped, and B-arm comb polymers. The factors affecting complexity in monodisperse polymer systems are ranked as follows: number of arms > arm length > arm central position approximately equal to arm clustering > total molecular weight approximately equal to backbone molecular weight. Topological indices change rapidly and then plateau as the molecular weight of branches on a polyolefin backbone increases from 0 to 5 kD. Complexity calculations relate 2-arm or 3-arm comb structures to the corresponding 3-arm stars of equivalent complexity but much higher molecular weight. In a subsequent paper, we report the application of topological analysis for developing structure/property relationships for monodisperse polymers. While the focus of the present work is on the description of monodisperse, well-defined architectures, the methods may be extended to the description of polydisperse systems.

  8. Particle identification in ALICE: a Bayesian approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Adam, J.; Adamova, D.; Aggarwal, M. M.; Rinella, G. Aglieri; Agnello, M.; Agrawal, N.; Ahammed, Z.; Ahn, S. U.; Aiola, S.; Akindinov, A.; Alam, S. N.; Albuquerque, D. S. D.; Aleksandrov, D.; Alessandro, B.; Alexandre, D.; Alfaro Molina, R.; Alici, A.; Alkin, A.; Almaraz, J. R. M.; Alme, J.; Alt, T.; Altinpinar, S.; Altsybeev, I.; Alves Garcia Prado, C.; Andrei, C.; Andronic, A.; Anguelov, V.; Anticic, T.; Antinori, F.; Antonioli, P.; Aphecetche, L.; Appelshaeuser, H.; Arcelli, S.; Arnaldi, R.; Arnold, O. W.; Arsene, I. C.; Arslandok, M.; Audurier, B.; Augustinus, A.; Averbeck, R.; Azmi, M. D.; Badala, A.; Baek, Y. W.; Bagnasco, S.; Bailhache, R.; Bala, R.; Balasubramanian, S.; Baldisseri, A.; Baral, R. C.; Barbano, A. M.; Barbera, R.; Barile, F.; Barnafoeldi, G. G.; Barnby, L. S.; Barret, V.; Bartalini, P.; Barth, K.; Bartke, J.; Bartsch, E.; Basile, M.; Bastid, N.; Bathen, B.; Batigne, G.; Camejo, A. Batista; Batyunya, B.; Batzing, P. C.; Bearden, I. G.; Beck, H.; Bedda, C.; Behera, N. K.; Belikov, I.; Bellini, F.; Bello Martinez, H.; Bellwied, R.; Belmont, R.; Belmont-Moreno, E.; Belyaev, V.; Benacek, P.; Bencedi, G.; Beole, S.; Berceanu, I.; Bercuci, A.; Berdnikov, Y.; Berenyi, D.; Bertens, R. A.; Berzano, D.; Betev, L.; Bhasin, A.; Bhat, I. R.; Bhati, A. K.; Bhattacharjee, B.; Bhom, J.; Bianchi, L.; Bianchi, N.; Bianchin, C.; Bielcik, J.; Bielcikova, J.; Bilandzic, A.; Biro, G.; Biswas, R.; Biswas, S.; Bjelogrlic, S.; Blair, J. T.; Blau, D.; Blume, C.; Bock, F.; Bogdanov, A.; Boggild, H.; Boldizsar, L.; Bombara, M.; Book, J.; Borel, H.; Borissov, A.; Borri, M.; Bossu, F.; Botta, E.; Bourjau, C.; Braun-Munzinger, P.; Bregant, M.; Breitner, T.; Broker, T. A.; Browning, T. A.; Broz, M.; Brucken, E. J.; Bruna, E.; Bruno, G. E.; Budnikov, D.; Buesching, H.; Bufalino, S.; Buncic, P.; Busch, O.; Buthelezi, Z.; Butt, J. B.; Buxton, J. T.; Cabala, J.; Caffarri, D.; Cai, X.; Caines, H.; Diaz, L. Calero; Caliva, A.; Calvo Villar, E.; Camerini, P.; Carena, F.; Carena, W.; Carnesecchi, F.; Castellanos, J. Castillo; Castro, A. J.; Casula, E. A. R.; Sanchez, C. Ceballos; Cepila, J.; Cerello, P.; Cerkala, J.; Chang, B.; Chapeland, S.; Chartier, M.; Charvet, J. L.; Chattopadhyay, S.; Chattopadhyay, S.; Chauvin, A.; Chelnokov, V.; Cherney, M.; Cheshkov, C.; Cheynis, B.; Barroso, V. Chibante; Chinellato, D. D.; Cho, S.; Chochula, P.; Choi, K.; Chojnacki, M.; Choudhury, S.; Christakoglou, P.; Christensen, C. H.; Christiansen, P.; Chujo, T.; Cicalo, C.; Cifarelli, L.; Cindolo, F.; Cleymans, J.; Colamaria, F.; Colella, D.; Collu, A.; Colocci, M.; Balbastre, G. Conesa; del Valle, Z. Conesa; Connors, M. E.; Contreras, J. G.; Cormier, T. M.; Morales, Y. Corrales; Cortes Maldonado, I.; Cortese, P.; Cosentino, M. R.; Costa, F.; Crochet, P.; Cruz Albino, R.; Cuautle, E.; Cunqueiro, L.; Dahms, T.; Dainese, A.; Danisch, M. C.; Danu, A.; Das, I.; Das, S.; Dash, A.; Dash, S.; De, S.; De Caro, A.; de Cataldo, G.; de Conti, C.; de Cuveland, J.; De Falco, A.; De Gruttola, D.; De Marco, N.; De Pasquale, S.; Deisting, A.; Deloff, A.; Denes, E.; Deplano, C.; Dhankher, P.; Di Bari, D.; Di Mauro, A.; Di Nezza, P.; Corchero, M. A. Diaz; Dietel, T.; Dillenseger, P.; Divia, R.; Djuvsland, O.; Dobrin, A.; Gimenez, D. Domenicis; Doenigus, B.; Dordic, O.; Drozhzhova, T.; Dubey, A. K.; Dubla, A.; Ducroux, L.; Dupieux, P.; Ehlers, R. J.; Elia, D.; Endress, E.; Engel, H.; Epple, E.; Erazmus, B.; Erdemir, I.; Erhardt, F.; Espagnon, B.; Estienne, M.; Esumi, S.; Eum, J.; Evans, D.; Evdokimov, S.; Eyyubova, G.; Fabbietti, L.; Fabris, D.; Faivre, J.; Fantoni, A.; Fasel, M.; Feldkamp, L.; Feliciello, A.; Feofilov, G.; Ferencei, J.; Fernandez Tellez, A.; Ferreiro, E. G.; Ferretti, A.; Festanti, A.; Feuillard, V. J. G.; Figiel, J.; Figueredo, M. A. S.; Filchagin, S.; Finogeev, D.; Fionda, F. M.; Fiore, E. M.; Fleck, M. G.; Floris, M.; Foertsch, S.; Foka, P.; Fokin, S.; Fragiacomo, E.; Francescon, A.; Frankenfeld, U.; Fronze, G. G.; Fuchs, U.; Furget, C.; Furs, A.; Girard, M. Fusco; Gaardhoje, J. J.; Gagliardi, M.; Gago, A. M.; Gallio, M.; Gangadharan, D. R.; Ganoti, P.; Gao, C.; Garabatos, C.; Garcia-Solis, E.; Gargiulo, C.; Gasik, P.; Gauger, E. F.; Germain, M.; Gheata, A.; Gheata, M.; Gianotti, P.; Giubellino, P.; Giubilato, P.; Gladysz-Dziadus, E.; Glaessel, P.; Gomez Coral, D. M.; Ramirez, A. Gomez; Gonzalez, A. S.; Gonzalez, V.; Gonzalez-Zamora, P.; Gorbunov, S.; Goerlich, L.; Gotovac, S.; Grabski, V.; Grachov, O. A.; Graczykowski, L. K.; Graham, K. L.; Grelli, A.; Grigoras, A.; Grigoras, C.; Grigoriev, V.; Grigoryan, A.; Grigoryan, S.; Grinyov, B.; Grion, N.; Gronefeld, J. M.; Grosse-Oetringhaus, J. F.; Grosso, R.; Guber, F.; Guernane, R.; Guerzoni, B.; Gulbrandsen, K.; Gunji, T.; Gupta, A.; Haake, R.; Haaland, O.; Hadjidakis, C.; Haiduc, M.; Hamagaki, H.; Hamar, G.; Hamon, J. C.; Harris, J. W.; Harton, A.; Hatzifotiadou, D.; Hayashi, S.; Heckel, S. T.; Hellbaer, E.; Helstrup, H.; Herghelegiu, A.; Herrera Corral, G.; Hess, B. A.; Hetland, K. F.; Hillemanns, H.; Hippolyte, B.; Horak, D.; Hosokawa, R.; Hristov, P.; Humanic, T. J.; Hussain, N.; Hussain, T.; Hutter, D.; Hwang, D. S.; Ilkaev, R.; Inaba, M.; Incani, E.; Ippolitov, M.; Irfan, M.; Ivanov, M.; Ivanov, V.; Izucheev, V.; Jacazio, N.; Jadhav, M. B.; Jadlovska, S.; Jadlovsky, J.; Jahnke, C.; Jakubowska, M. J.; Jang, H. J.; Janik, M. A.; Jayarathna, P. H. S. Y.; Jena, C.; Jena, S.; Bustamante, R. T. Jimenez; Jones, P. G.; Jusko, A.; Kalinak, P.; Kalweit, A.; Kamin, J.; Kaplin, V.; Kar, S.; Uysal, A. Karasu; Karavichev, O.; Karavicheva, T.; Karayan, L.; Karpechev, E.; Kebschull, U.; Keidel, R.; Keijdener, D. L. D.; Keil, M.; Khan, M. Mohisin; Khan, P.; Khan, S. A.; Khanzadeev, A.; Kharlov, Y.; Kileng, B.; Kim, D. W.; Kim, D. J.; Kim, D.; Kim, J. S.; Kim, M.; Kim, T.; Kirsch, S.; Kisel, I.; Kiselev, S.; Kisiel, A.; Kiss, G.; Klay, J. L.; Klein, C.; Klein-Boesing, C.; Klewin, S.; Kluge, A.; Knichel, M. L.; Knospe, A. G.; Kobdaj, C.; Kofarago, M.; Kollegger, T.; Kolojvari, A.; Kondratiev, V.; Kondratyeva, N.; Kondratyuk, E.; Konevskikh, A.; Kopcik, M.; Kostarakis, P.; Kour, M.; Kouzinopoulos, C.; Kovalenko, O.; Kovalenko, V.; Kowalski, M.; Meethaleveedu, G. Koyithatta; Kralik, I.; Kravcakova, A.; Krivda, M.; Krizek, F.; Kryshen, E.; Krzewicki, M.; Kubera, A. M.; Kucera, V.; Kuijer, P. G.; Kumar, J.; Kumar, L.; Kumar, S.; Kurashvili, P.; Kurepin, A.; Kurepin, A. B.; Kuryakin, A.; Kweon, M. J.; Kwon, Y.; La Pointe, S. L.; La Rocca, P.; Ladron de Guevara, P.; Lagana Fernandes, C.; Lakomov, I.; Langoy, R.; Lara, C.; Lardeux, A.; Lattuca, A.; Laudi, E.; Lea, R.; Leardini, L.; Lee, G. R.; Lee, S.; Lehas, F.; Lemmon, R. C.; Lenti, V.; Leogrande, E.; Monzon, I. Leon; Leon Vargas, H.; Leoncino, M.; Levai, P.; Lien, J.; Lietava, R.; Lindal, S.; Lindenstruth, V.; Lippmann, C.; Lisa, M. A.; Ljunggren, H. M.; Lodato, D. F.; Loenne, P. I.; Loginov, V.; Loizides, C.; Lopez, X.; Torres, E. Lopez; Lowe, A.; Luettig, P.; Lunardon, M.; Luparello, G.; Lutz, T. H.; Maevskaya, A.; Mager, M.; Mahajan, S.; Mahmood, S. M.; Maire, A.; Majka, R. D.; Malaev, M.; Maldonado Cervantes, I.; Malinina, L.; Mal'Kevich, D.; Malzacher, P.; Mamonov, A.; Manko, V.; Manso, F.; Manzari, V.; Marchisone, M.; Mares, J.; Margagliotti, G. V.; Margotti, A.; Margutti, J.; Marin, A.; Markert, C.; Marquard, M.; Martin, N. A.; Blanco, J. Martin; Martinengo, P.; Martinez, M. I.; Garcia, G. Martinez; Pedreira, M. Martinez; Mas, A.; Masciocchi, S.; Masera, M.; Masoni, A.; Mastroserio, A.; Matyja, A.; Mayer, C.; Mazer, J.; Mazzoni, M. A.; Mcdonald, D.; Meddi, F.; Melikyan, Y.; Menchaca-Rocha, A.; Meninno, E.; Perez, J. Mercado; Meres, M.; Miake, Y.; Mieskolainen, M. M.; Mikhaylov, K.; Milano, L.; Milosevic, J.; Mischke, A.; Mishra, A. N.; Miskowiec, D.; Mitra, J.; Mitu, C. M.; Mohammadi, N.; Mohanty, B.; Molnar, L.; Montano Zetina, L.; Montes, E.; De Godoy, D. A. Moreira; Moreno, L. A. P.; Moretto, S.; Morreale, A.; Morsch, A.; Muccifora, V.; Mudnic, E.; Muehlheim, D.; Muhuri, S.; Mukherjee, M.; Mulligan, J. D.; Munhoz, M. G.; Munzer, R. H.; Murakami, H.; Murray, S.; Musa, L.; Musinsky, J.; Naik, B.; Nair, R.; Nandi, B. K.; Nania, R.; Nappi, E.; Naru, M. U.; Natal da Luz, H.; Nattrass, C.; Navarro, S. R.; Nayak, K.; Nayak, R.; Nayak, T. K.; Nazarenko, S.; Nedosekin, A.; Nellen, L.; Ng, F.; Nicassio, M.; Niculescu, M.; Niedziela, J.; Nielsen, B. S.; Nikolaev, S.; Nikulin, S.; Nikulin, V.; Noferini, F.; Nomokonov, P.; Nooren, G.; Noris, J. C. C.; Norman, J.; Nyanin, A.; Nystrand, J.; Oeschler, H.; Oh, S.; Oh, S. K.; Ohlson, A.; Okatan, A.; Okubo, T.; Olah, L.; Oleniacz, J.; Oliveira Da Silva, A. C.; Oliver, M. H.; Onderwaater, J.; Oppedisano, C.; Orava, R.; Oravec, M.; Ortiz Velasquez, A.; Oskarsson, A.; Otwinowski, J.; Oyama, K.; Ozdemir, M.; Pachmayer, Y.; Pagano, D.; Pagano, P.; Paic, G.; Pal, S. K.; Pan, J.; Papikyan, V.; Pappalardo, G. S.; Pareek, P.; Park, W. J.; Parmar, S.; Passfeld, A.; Paticchio, V.; Patra, R. N.; Paul, B.; Pei, H.; Peitzmann, T.; Da Costa, H. Pereira; Peresunko, D.; Lara, C. E. Perez; Lezama, E. Perez; Peskov, V.; Pestov, Y.; Petracek, V.; Petrov, V.; Petrovici, M.; Petta, C.; Piano, S.; Pikna, M.; Pillot, P.; Pimentel, L. O. D. L.; Pinazza, O.; Pinsky, L.; Piyarathna, D. B.; Ploskon, M.; Planinic, M.; Pluta, J.; Pochybova, S.; Podesta-Lerma, P. L. M.; Poghosyan, M. G.; Polichtchouk, B.; Poljak, N.; Poonsawat, W.; Pop, A.; Porteboeuf-Houssais, S.; Porter, J.; Pospisil, J.; Prasad, S. K.; Preghenella, R.; Prino, F.; Pruneau, C. A.; Pshenichnov, I.; Puccio, M.; Puddu, G.; Pujahari, P.; Punin, V.; Putschke, J.; Qvigstad, H.; Rachevski, A.; Raha, S.; Rajput, S.; Rak, J.; Rakotozafindrabe, A.; Ramello, L.; Rami, F.; Raniwala, R.; Raniwala, S.; Raesaenen, S. S.; Rascanu, B. T.; Rathee, D.; Read, K. F.; Redlich, K.; Reed, R. J.; Reichelt, P.; Reidt, F.; Ren, X.; Renfordt, R.; Reolon, A. R.; Reshetin, A.; Reygers, K.; Riabov, V.; Ricci, R. A.; Richert, T.; Richter, M.; Riedler, P.; Riegler, W.; Riggi, F.; Ristea, C.; Rocco, E.; Rodriguez Cahuantzi, M.; Manso, A. Rodriguez; Roed, K.; Rogochaya, E.; Rohr, D.; Roehrich, D.; Ronchetti, F.; Ronflette, L.; Rosnet, P.; Rossi, A.; Roukoutakis, F.; Roy, A.; Roy, C.; Roy, P.; Montero, A. J. Rubio; Rui, R.; Russo, R.; Ryabinkin, E.; Ryabov, Y.; Rybicki, A.; Saarinen, S.; Sadhu, S.; Sadovsky, S.; Safarik, K.; Sahlmuller, B.; Sahoo, P.; Sahoo, R.; Sahoo, S.; Sahu, P. K.; Saini, J.; Sakai, S.; Saleh, M. A.; Salzwedel, J.; Sambyal, S.; Samsonov, V.; Sandor, L.; Sandoval, A.; Sano, M.; Sarkar, D.; Sarkar, N.; Sarma, P.; Scapparone, E.; Scarlassara, F.; Schiaua, C.; Schicker, R.; Schmidt, C.; Schmidt, H. R.; Schuchmann, S.; Schukraft, J.; Schulc, M.; Schutz, Y.; Schwarz, K.; Schweda, K.; Scioli, G.; Scomparin, E.; Scott, R.; Sefcik, M.; Seger, J. E.; Sekiguchi, Y.; Sekihata, D.; Selyuzhenkov, I.; Senosi, K.; Senyukov, S.; Serradilla, E.; Sevcenco, A.; Shabanov, A.; Shabetai, A.; Shadura, O.; Shahoyan, R.; Shahzad, M. I.; Shangaraev, A.; Sharma, M.; Sharma, M.; Sharma, N.; Sheikh, A. I.; Shigaki, K.; Shou, Q.; Shtejer, K.; Sibiriak, Y.; Siddhanta, S.; Sielewicz, K. M.; Siemiarczuk, T.; Silvermyr, D.; Silvestre, C.; Simatovic, G.; Simonetti, G.; Singaraju, R.; Singh, R.; Singha, S.; Singhal, V.; Sinha, B. C.; Sinha, T.; Sitar, B.; Sitta, M.; Skaali, T. B.; Slupecki, M.; Smirnov, N.; Snellings, R. J. M.; Snellman, T. W.; Song, J.; Song, M.; Song, Z.; Soramel, F.; Sorensen, S.; de Souza, R. D.; Sozzi, F.; Spacek, M.; Spiriti, E.; Sputowska, I.; Spyropoulou-Stassinaki, M.; Stachel, J.; Stan, I.; Stankus, P.; Stenlund, E.; Steyn, G.; Stiller, J. H.; Stocco, D.; Strmen, P.; Suaide, A. A. P.; Sugitate, T.; Suire, C.; Suleymanov, M.; Suljic, M.; Sultanov, R.; Sumbera, M.; Sumowidagdo, S.; Szabo, A.; Szanto de Toledo, A.; Szarka, I.; Szczepankiewicz, A.; Szymanski, M.; Tabassam, U.; Takahashi, J.; Tambave, G. J.; Tanaka, N.; Tarhini, M.; Tariq, M.; Tarzila, M. G.; Tauro, A.; Tejeda Munoz, G.; Telesca, A.; Terasaki, K.; Terrevoli, C.; Teyssier, B.; Thaeder, J.; Thakur, D.; Thomas, D.; Tieulent, R.; Timmins, A. R.; Toia, A.; Trogolo, S.; Trombetta, G.; Trubnikov, V.; Trzaska, W. H.; Tsuji, T.; Tumkin, A.; Turrisi, R.; Tveter, T. S.; Ullaland, K.; Uras, A.; Usai, G. L.; Utrobicic, A.; Vala, M.; Palomo, L. Valencia; Vallero, S.; Van Der Maarel, J.; Van Hoorne, J. W.; van Leeuwen, M.; Vanat, T.; Vyvre, P. Vande; Varga, D.; Vargas, A.; Vargyas, M.; Varma, R.; Vasileiou, M.; Vasiliev, A.; Vauthier, A.; Vechernin, V.; Veen, A. M.; Veldhoen, M.; Velure, A.; Vercellin, E.; Vergara Limon, S.; Vernet, R.; Verweij, M.; Vickovic, L.; Viesti, G.; Viinikainen, J.; Vilakazi, Z.; Baillie, O. Villalobos; Villatoro Tello, A.; Vinogradov, A.; Vinogradov, L.; Vinogradov, Y.; Virgili, T.; Vislavicius, V.; Viyogi, Y. P.; Vodopyanov, A.; Voelkl, M. A.; Voloshin, K.; Voloshin, S. A.; Volpe, G.; von Haller, B.; Vorobyev, I.; Vranic, D.; Vrlakova, J.; Vulpescu, B.; Wagner, B.; Wagner, J.; Wang, H.; Watanabe, D.; Watanabe, Y.; Weiser, D. F.; Westerhoff, U.; Whitehead, A. M.; Wiechula, J.; Wikne, J.; Wilk, G.; Wilkinson, J.; Williams, M. C. S.; Windelband, B.; Winn, M.; Yang, H.; Yano, S.; Yasin, Z.; Yokoyama, H.; Yoo, I. -K.; Yoon, J. H.; Yurchenko, V.; Yushmanov, I.; Zaborowska, A.; Zaccolo, V.; Zaman, A.; Zampolli, C.; Zanoli, H. J. C.; Zaporozhets, S.; Zardoshti, N.; Zarochentsev, A.; Zavada, P.; Zaviyalov, N.; Zbroszczyk, H.; Zgura, I. S.; Zhalov, M.; Zhang, C.; Zhao, C.; Zhigareva, N.; Zhou, Y.; Zhou, Z.; Zhu, H.; Zichichi, A.; Zimmermann, A.; Zimmermann, M. B.; Zinovjev, G.; Zyzak, M.

    2016-01-01

    We present a Bayesian approach to particle identification (PID) within the ALICE experiment. The aim is to more effectively combine the particle identification capabilities of its various detectors. After a brief explanation of the adopted methodology and formalism, the performance of the Bayesian

  9. Compiling Relational Bayesian Networks for Exact Inference

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jaeger, Manfred; Darwiche, Adnan; Chavira, Mark

    2006-01-01

    We describe in this paper a system for exact inference with relational Bayesian networks as defined in the publicly available PRIMULA tool. The system is based on compiling propositional instances of relational Bayesian networks into arithmetic circuits and then performing online inference...

  10. A Bayesian Justification for Random Sampling in Sample Survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Glen Meeden

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available In the usual Bayesian approach to survey sampling the sampling design, plays a minimal role, at best. Although a close relationship between exchangeable prior distributions and simple random sampling has been noted; how to formally integrate simple random sampling into the Bayesian paradigm is not clear. Recently it has been argued that the sampling design can be thought of as part of a Bayesian's prior distribution. We will show here that under this scenario simple random sample can be given a Bayesian justification in survey sampling.

  11. 76 FR 71343 - Ethics, Independence, Arm's-Length Role, Ex Parte Communications and Open Government

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-11-17

    ... FARM CREDIT ADMINISTRATION [FCA-PS-81; NV 11-25] Ethics, Independence, Arm's-Length Role, Ex Parte...) and the public. The FCA Board also is committed to the ethics principles and laws governing all Executive Branch employees and to the Agency's strong ethics program. DATES: Effective Date: November 7...

  12. Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling of Fluid-Induced Seismicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broccardo, M.; Mignan, A.; Wiemer, S.; Stojadinovic, B.; Giardini, D.

    2017-11-01

    In this study, we present a Bayesian hierarchical framework to model fluid-induced seismicity. The framework is based on a nonhomogeneous Poisson process with a fluid-induced seismicity rate proportional to the rate of injected fluid. The fluid-induced seismicity rate model depends upon a set of physically meaningful parameters and has been validated for six fluid-induced case studies. In line with the vision of hierarchical Bayesian modeling, the rate parameters are considered as random variables. We develop both the Bayesian inference and updating rules, which are used to develop a probabilistic forecasting model. We tested the Basel 2006 fluid-induced seismic case study to prove that the hierarchical Bayesian model offers a suitable framework to coherently encode both epistemic uncertainty and aleatory variability. Moreover, it provides a robust and consistent short-term seismic forecasting model suitable for online risk quantification and mitigation.

  13. The Development of Bayesian Theory and Its Applications in Business and Bioinformatics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yifei

    2018-03-01

    Bayesian Theory originated from an Essay of a British mathematician named Thomas Bayes in 1763, and after its development in 20th century, Bayesian Statistics has been taking a significant part in statistical study of all fields. Due to the recent breakthrough of high-dimensional integral, Bayesian Statistics has been improved and perfected, and now it can be used to solve problems that Classical Statistics failed to solve. This paper summarizes Bayesian Statistics’ history, concepts and applications, which are illustrated in five parts: the history of Bayesian Statistics, the weakness of Classical Statistics, Bayesian Theory and its development and applications. The first two parts make a comparison between Bayesian Statistics and Classical Statistics in a macroscopic aspect. And the last three parts focus on Bayesian Theory in specific -- from introducing some particular Bayesian Statistics’ concepts to listing their development and finally their applications.

  14. Empirical Bayesian inference and model uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poern, K.

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents a hierarchical or multistage empirical Bayesian approach for the estimation of uncertainty concerning the intensity of a homogeneous Poisson process. A class of contaminated gamma distributions is considered to describe the uncertainty concerning the intensity. These distributions in turn are defined through a set of secondary parameters, the knowledge of which is also described and updated via Bayes formula. This two-stage Bayesian approach is an example where the modeling uncertainty is treated in a comprehensive way. Each contaminated gamma distributions, represented by a point in the 3D space of secondary parameters, can be considered as a specific model of the uncertainty about the Poisson intensity. Then, by the empirical Bayesian method each individual model is assigned a posterior probability

  15. Advances in Bayesian Modeling in Educational Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, Roy

    2016-01-01

    In this article, I provide a conceptually oriented overview of Bayesian approaches to statistical inference and contrast them with frequentist approaches that currently dominate conventional practice in educational research. The features and advantages of Bayesian approaches are illustrated with examples spanning several statistical modeling…

  16. Objective Bayesianism and the Maximum Entropy Principle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jon Williamson

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Objective Bayesian epistemology invokes three norms: the strengths of our beliefs should be probabilities; they should be calibrated to our evidence of physical probabilities; and they should otherwise equivocate sufficiently between the basic propositions that we can express. The three norms are sometimes explicated by appealing to the maximum entropy principle, which says that a belief function should be a probability function, from all those that are calibrated to evidence, that has maximum entropy. However, the three norms of objective Bayesianism are usually justified in different ways. In this paper, we show that the three norms can all be subsumed under a single justification in terms of minimising worst-case expected loss. This, in turn, is equivalent to maximising a generalised notion of entropy. We suggest that requiring language invariance, in addition to minimising worst-case expected loss, motivates maximisation of standard entropy as opposed to maximisation of other instances of generalised entropy. Our argument also provides a qualified justification for updating degrees of belief by Bayesian conditionalisation. However, conditional probabilities play a less central part in the objective Bayesian account than they do under the subjective view of Bayesianism, leading to a reduced role for Bayes’ Theorem.

  17. Classifying emotion in Twitter using Bayesian network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Surya Asriadie, Muhammad; Syahrul Mubarok, Mohamad; Adiwijaya

    2018-03-01

    Language is used to express not only facts, but also emotions. Emotions are noticeable from behavior up to the social media statuses written by a person. Analysis of emotions in a text is done in a variety of media such as Twitter. This paper studies classification of emotions on twitter using Bayesian network because of its ability to model uncertainty and relationships between features. The result is two models based on Bayesian network which are Full Bayesian Network (FBN) and Bayesian Network with Mood Indicator (BNM). FBN is a massive Bayesian network where each word is treated as a node. The study shows the method used to train FBN is not very effective to create the best model and performs worse compared to Naive Bayes. F1-score for FBN is 53.71%, while for Naive Bayes is 54.07%. BNM is proposed as an alternative method which is based on the improvement of Multinomial Naive Bayes and has much lower computational complexity compared to FBN. Even though it’s not better compared to FBN, the resulting model successfully improves the performance of Multinomial Naive Bayes. F1-Score for Multinomial Naive Bayes model is 51.49%, while for BNM is 52.14%.

  18. Probability biases as Bayesian inference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andre; C. R. Martins

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available In this article, I will show how several observed biases in human probabilistic reasoning can be partially explained as good heuristics for making inferences in an environment where probabilities have uncertainties associated to them. Previous results show that the weight functions and the observed violations of coalescing and stochastic dominance can be understood from a Bayesian point of view. We will review those results and see that Bayesian methods should also be used as part of the explanation behind other known biases. That means that, although the observed errors are still errors under the be understood as adaptations to the solution of real life problems. Heuristics that allow fast evaluations and mimic a Bayesian inference would be an evolutionary advantage, since they would give us an efficient way of making decisions. %XX In that sense, it should be no surprise that humans reason with % probability as it has been observed.

  19. Bayesian data analysis in population ecology: motivations, methods, and benefits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorazio, Robert

    2016-01-01

    During the 20th century ecologists largely relied on the frequentist system of inference for the analysis of their data. However, in the past few decades ecologists have become increasingly interested in the use of Bayesian methods of data analysis. In this article I provide guidance to ecologists who would like to decide whether Bayesian methods can be used to improve their conclusions and predictions. I begin by providing a concise summary of Bayesian methods of analysis, including a comparison of differences between Bayesian and frequentist approaches to inference when using hierarchical models. Next I provide a list of problems where Bayesian methods of analysis may arguably be preferred over frequentist methods. These problems are usually encountered in analyses based on hierarchical models of data. I describe the essentials required for applying modern methods of Bayesian computation, and I use real-world examples to illustrate these methods. I conclude by summarizing what I perceive to be the main strengths and weaknesses of using Bayesian methods to solve ecological inference problems.

  20. Bayesian psychometric scaling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fox, Gerardus J.A.; van den Berg, Stéphanie Martine; Veldkamp, Bernard P.; Irwing, P.; Booth, T.; Hughes, D.

    2015-01-01

    In educational and psychological studies, psychometric methods are involved in the measurement of constructs, and in constructing and validating measurement instruments. Assessment results are typically used to measure student proficiency levels and test characteristics. Recently, Bayesian item

  1. Learning Bayesian Networks with Incomplete Data by Augmentation

    OpenAIRE

    Adel, Tameem; de Campos, Cassio P.

    2016-01-01

    We present new algorithms for learning Bayesian networks from data with missing values using a data augmentation approach. An exact Bayesian network learning algorithm is obtained by recasting the problem into a standard Bayesian network learning problem without missing data. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first exact algorithm for this problem. As expected, the exact algorithm does not scale to large domains. We build on the exact method to create an approximate algorithm using a ...

  2. Bayesian optimization for computationally extensive probability distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamura, Ryo; Hukushima, Koji

    2018-01-01

    An efficient method for finding a better maximizer of computationally extensive probability distributions is proposed on the basis of a Bayesian optimization technique. A key idea of the proposed method is to use extreme values of acquisition functions by Gaussian processes for the next training phase, which should be located near a local maximum or a global maximum of the probability distribution. Our Bayesian optimization technique is applied to the posterior distribution in the effective physical model estimation, which is a computationally extensive probability distribution. Even when the number of sampling points on the posterior distributions is fixed to be small, the Bayesian optimization provides a better maximizer of the posterior distributions in comparison to those by the random search method, the steepest descent method, or the Monte Carlo method. Furthermore, the Bayesian optimization improves the results efficiently by combining the steepest descent method and thus it is a powerful tool to search for a better maximizer of computationally extensive probability distributions.

  3. An Intuitive Dashboard for Bayesian Network Inference

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reddy, Vikas; Farr, Anna Charisse; Wu, Paul; Mengersen, Kerrie; Yarlagadda, Prasad K D V

    2014-01-01

    Current Bayesian network software packages provide good graphical interface for users who design and develop Bayesian networks for various applications. However, the intended end-users of these networks may not necessarily find such an interface appealing and at times it could be overwhelming, particularly when the number of nodes in the network is large. To circumvent this problem, this paper presents an intuitive dashboard, which provides an additional layer of abstraction, enabling the end-users to easily perform inferences over the Bayesian networks. Unlike most software packages, which display the nodes and arcs of the network, the developed tool organises the nodes based on the cause-and-effect relationship, making the user-interaction more intuitive and friendly. In addition to performing various types of inferences, the users can conveniently use the tool to verify the behaviour of the developed Bayesian network. The tool has been developed using QT and SMILE libraries in C++

  4. An Intuitive Dashboard for Bayesian Network Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reddy, Vikas; Charisse Farr, Anna; Wu, Paul; Mengersen, Kerrie; Yarlagadda, Prasad K. D. V.

    2014-03-01

    Current Bayesian network software packages provide good graphical interface for users who design and develop Bayesian networks for various applications. However, the intended end-users of these networks may not necessarily find such an interface appealing and at times it could be overwhelming, particularly when the number of nodes in the network is large. To circumvent this problem, this paper presents an intuitive dashboard, which provides an additional layer of abstraction, enabling the end-users to easily perform inferences over the Bayesian networks. Unlike most software packages, which display the nodes and arcs of the network, the developed tool organises the nodes based on the cause-and-effect relationship, making the user-interaction more intuitive and friendly. In addition to performing various types of inferences, the users can conveniently use the tool to verify the behaviour of the developed Bayesian network. The tool has been developed using QT and SMILE libraries in C++.

  5. Bayesian disease mapping: hierarchical modeling in spatial epidemiology

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lawson, Andrew

    2013-01-01

    .... Exploring these new developments, Bayesian Disease Mapping: Hierarchical Modeling in Spatial Epidemiology, Second Edition provides an up-to-date, cohesive account of the full range of Bayesian disease mapping methods and applications...

  6. Inaccurate DNA synthesis in cell extracts of yeast producing active human DNA polymerase iota.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makarova, Alena V; Grabow, Corinn; Gening, Leonid V; Tarantul, Vyacheslav Z; Tahirov, Tahir H; Bessho, Tadayoshi; Pavlov, Youri I

    2011-01-31

    Mammalian Pol ι has an unusual combination of properties: it is stimulated by Mn(2+) ions, can bypass some DNA lesions and misincorporates "G" opposite template "T" more frequently than incorporates the correct "A." We recently proposed a method of detection of Pol ι activity in animal cell extracts, based on primer extension opposite the template T with a high concentration of only two nucleotides, dGTP and dATP (incorporation of "G" versus "A" method of Gening, abbreviated as "misGvA"). We provide unambiguous proof of the "misGvA" approach concept and extend the applicability of the method for the studies of variants of Pol ι in the yeast model system with different cation cofactors. We produced human Pol ι in baker's yeast, which do not have a POLI ortholog. The "misGvA" activity is absent in cell extracts containing an empty vector, or producing catalytically dead Pol ι, or Pol ι lacking exon 2, but is robust in the strain producing wild-type Pol ι or its catalytic core, or protein with the active center L62I mutant. The signature pattern of primer extension products resulting from inaccurate DNA synthesis by extracts of cells producing either Pol ι or human Pol η is different. The DNA sequence of the template is critical for the detection of the infidelity of DNA synthesis attributed to DNA Pol ι. The primer/template and composition of the exogenous DNA precursor pool can be adapted to monitor replication fidelity in cell extracts expressing various error-prone Pols or mutator variants of accurate Pols. Finally, we demonstrate that the mutation rates in yeast strains producing human DNA Pols ι and η are not elevated over the control strain, despite highly inaccurate DNA synthesis by their extracts.

  7. Inaccurate DNA synthesis in cell extracts of yeast producing active human DNA polymerase iota.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alena V Makarova

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Mammalian Pol ι has an unusual combination of properties: it is stimulated by Mn(2+ ions, can bypass some DNA lesions and misincorporates "G" opposite template "T" more frequently than incorporates the correct "A." We recently proposed a method of detection of Pol ι activity in animal cell extracts, based on primer extension opposite the template T with a high concentration of only two nucleotides, dGTP and dATP (incorporation of "G" versus "A" method of Gening, abbreviated as "misGvA". We provide unambiguous proof of the "misGvA" approach concept and extend the applicability of the method for the studies of variants of Pol ι in the yeast model system with different cation cofactors. We produced human Pol ι in baker's yeast, which do not have a POLI ortholog. The "misGvA" activity is absent in cell extracts containing an empty vector, or producing catalytically dead Pol ι, or Pol ι lacking exon 2, but is robust in the strain producing wild-type Pol ι or its catalytic core, or protein with the active center L62I mutant. The signature pattern of primer extension products resulting from inaccurate DNA synthesis by extracts of cells producing either Pol ι or human Pol η is different. The DNA sequence of the template is critical for the detection of the infidelity of DNA synthesis attributed to DNA Pol ι. The primer/template and composition of the exogenous DNA precursor pool can be adapted to monitor replication fidelity in cell extracts expressing various error-prone Pols or mutator variants of accurate Pols. Finally, we demonstrate that the mutation rates in yeast strains producing human DNA Pols ι and η are not elevated over the control strain, despite highly inaccurate DNA synthesis by their extracts.

  8. Mesozooplankton size data from the fjord branch Kapisigdlit located in the Godthaabsfjord system, West Greenland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2013-01-01

    branch, in the middle of a shallower inner creek . St. 1-4 was covering deeper parts of the fjord, and St. 5 was located on the slope leading up to the shallow inner creek. Mesozooplankton was sampled by vertical net tows using a Hydrobios Multinet (type Mini) equipped with a flow meter and 50 µm mesh...... to lowest possible taxonomic level (approx. 400 per sample), length measured and counted. Copepods were sorted into development stages (nauplii stage 1 - copepodite stage 6) using morphological features and sizes, and up to 10 individuals of each stage was length measured...

  9. Using Bayesian Networks to Improve Knowledge Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millan, Eva; Descalco, Luis; Castillo, Gladys; Oliveira, Paula; Diogo, Sandra

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we describe the integration and evaluation of an existing generic Bayesian student model (GBSM) into an existing computerized testing system within the Mathematics Education Project (PmatE--Projecto Matematica Ensino) of the University of Aveiro. This generic Bayesian student model had been previously evaluated with simulated…

  10. Learning dynamic Bayesian networks with mixed variables

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bøttcher, Susanne Gammelgaard

    This paper considers dynamic Bayesian networks for discrete and continuous variables. We only treat the case, where the distribution of the variables is conditional Gaussian. We show how to learn the parameters and structure of a dynamic Bayesian network and also how the Markov order can be learned...

  11. Bayesian Statistics: Concepts and Applications in Animal Breeding – A Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lsxmikant-Sambhaji Kokate

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Statistics uses two major approaches- conventional (or frequentist and Bayesian approach. Bayesian approach provides a complete paradigm for both statistical inference and decision making under uncertainty. Bayesian methods solve many of the difficulties faced by conventional statistical methods, and extend the applicability of statistical methods. It exploits the use of probabilistic models to formulate scientific problems. To use Bayesian statistics, there is computational difficulty and secondly, Bayesian methods require specifying prior probability distributions. Markov Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC methods were applied to overcome the computational difficulty, and interest in Bayesian methods was renewed. In Bayesian statistics, Bayesian structural equation model (SEM is used. It provides a powerful and flexible approach for studying quantitative traits for wide spectrum problems and thus it has no operational difficulties, with the exception of some complex cases. In this method, the problems are solved at ease, and the statisticians feel it comfortable with the particular way of expressing the results and employing the software available to analyze a large variety of problems.

  12. Bayesian non- and semi-parametric methods and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Rossi, Peter

    2014-01-01

    This book reviews and develops Bayesian non-parametric and semi-parametric methods for applications in microeconometrics and quantitative marketing. Most econometric models used in microeconomics and marketing applications involve arbitrary distributional assumptions. As more data becomes available, a natural desire to provide methods that relax these assumptions arises. Peter Rossi advocates a Bayesian approach in which specific distributional assumptions are replaced with more flexible distributions based on mixtures of normals. The Bayesian approach can use either a large but fixed number

  13. [Croatian Medical Association--Branch Zagreb].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaić, Zvonimir; Sain, Snjezana; Gulić, Mirjana; Mahovlić, Vjekoslav; Krznarić, Zeljko

    2014-01-01

    The available literature shows us that "Druztvo ljeciteljah u Zagrebus (the Society of Healers in Zagreb) was founded as far back as the year 1845 by a total of thirteen members. This data allows us to follow the role of doctors and health workers in Zagreb through their everyday profession, research, organizational and social work as well as management through a period of over one hundred to seventy years. The Branch Zagreb was active before the official establishment of subsidiaries of CMA which is evident from the minutes of the regular annual assembly of the Croatian Medical Association on 21 March 1948. Until the end of 1956, there was no clear division of labor, functions and competencies between the Branch and the Main Board. Their actions were instead consolidated and the Branch operated within and under the name of Croatian Medical Association. In that year the Branch became independent. The Branch Zagreb is the largest and one of the most active branches of the Croatian Medical Association. At the moment, the Branch brings together 3621 members, regular members--doctors of medicine (2497), doctors of dental medicine (384), retired physicians (710), and associate members (30 specialists with higher education who are not doctors). The Branch is especially accomplished in its activities in the area of professional development of its members and therefore organizes a series of scientific conferences in the framework of continuous education of physicians, allowing its members to acquire necessary points for the extension of their operating license. The choir "Zagrebacki lijecnici pjevaci" (Zagreb Physicians' Choir) of the Croatian Medical Music Society of the CMA and its activities are inseparable from the Branch Zagreb. The Branch is firmly linked to the parent body, the CMA, and thus has a visible impact on the strategy and the activities of the Association as a whole. Most professional societies of the CMA have their headquarters in Zagreb and this is

  14. Non-linear Bayesian update of PCE coefficients

    KAUST Repository

    Litvinenko, Alexander

    2014-01-06

    Given: a physical system modeled by a PDE or ODE with uncertain coefficient q(?), a measurement operator Y (u(q), q), where u(q, ?) uncertain solution. Aim: to identify q(?). The mapping from parameters to observations is usually not invertible, hence this inverse identification problem is generally ill-posed. To identify q(!) we derived non-linear Bayesian update from the variational problem associated with conditional expectation. To reduce cost of the Bayesian update we offer a unctional approximation, e.g. polynomial chaos expansion (PCE). New: We apply Bayesian update to the PCE coefficients of the random coefficient q(?) (not to the probability density function of q).

  15. Non-linear Bayesian update of PCE coefficients

    KAUST Repository

    Litvinenko, Alexander; Matthies, Hermann G.; Pojonk, Oliver; Rosic, Bojana V.; Zander, Elmar

    2014-01-01

    Given: a physical system modeled by a PDE or ODE with uncertain coefficient q(?), a measurement operator Y (u(q), q), where u(q, ?) uncertain solution. Aim: to identify q(?). The mapping from parameters to observations is usually not invertible, hence this inverse identification problem is generally ill-posed. To identify q(!) we derived non-linear Bayesian update from the variational problem associated with conditional expectation. To reduce cost of the Bayesian update we offer a unctional approximation, e.g. polynomial chaos expansion (PCE). New: We apply Bayesian update to the PCE coefficients of the random coefficient q(?) (not to the probability density function of q).

  16. A Fast Iterative Bayesian Inference Algorithm for Sparse Channel Estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Niels Lovmand; Manchón, Carles Navarro; Fleury, Bernard Henri

    2013-01-01

    representation of the Bessel K probability density function; a highly efficient, fast iterative Bayesian inference method is then applied to the proposed model. The resulting estimator outperforms other state-of-the-art Bayesian and non-Bayesian estimators, either by yielding lower mean squared estimation error...

  17. A Gentle Introduction to Bayesian Analysis : Applications to Developmental Research

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van de Schoot, Rens; Kaplan, David; Denissen, Jaap; Asendorpf, Jens B.; Neyer, Franz J.; van Aken, Marcel A G

    2014-01-01

    Bayesian statistical methods are becoming ever more popular in applied and fundamental research. In this study a gentle introduction to Bayesian analysis is provided. It is shown under what circumstances it is attractive to use Bayesian estimation, and how to interpret properly the results. First,

  18. A gentle introduction to Bayesian analysis : Applications to developmental research

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van de Schoot, R.; Kaplan, D.; Denissen, J.J.A.; Asendorpf, J.B.; Neyer, F.J.; van Aken, M.A.G.

    2014-01-01

    Bayesian statistical methods are becoming ever more popular in applied and fundamental research. In this study a gentle introduction to Bayesian analysis is provided. It is shown under what circumstances it is attractive to use Bayesian estimation, and how to interpret properly the results. First,

  19. A nonparametric Bayesian approach for genetic evaluation in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    South African Journal of Animal Science ... the Bayesian and Classical models, a Bayesian procedure is provided which allows these random ... data from the Elsenburg Dormer sheep stud and data from a simulation experiment are utilized. >

  20. 3D Bayesian contextual classifiers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Rasmus

    2000-01-01

    We extend a series of multivariate Bayesian 2-D contextual classifiers to 3-D by specifying a simultaneous Gaussian distribution for the feature vectors as well as a prior distribution of the class variables of a pixel and its 6 nearest 3-D neighbours.......We extend a series of multivariate Bayesian 2-D contextual classifiers to 3-D by specifying a simultaneous Gaussian distribution for the feature vectors as well as a prior distribution of the class variables of a pixel and its 6 nearest 3-D neighbours....

  1. Bayesian probability theory and inverse problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kopec, S.

    1994-01-01

    Bayesian probability theory is applied to approximate solving of the inverse problems. In order to solve the moment problem with the noisy data, the entropic prior is used. The expressions for the solution and its error bounds are presented. When the noise level tends to zero, the Bayesian solution tends to the classic maximum entropy solution in the L 2 norm. The way of using spline prior is also shown. (author)

  2. Variations on Bayesian Prediction and Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-05-09

    inference 2.2.1 Background There are a number of statistical inference problems that are not generally formulated via a full probability model...problem of inference about an unknown parameter, the Bayesian approach requires a full probability 1. REPORT DATE (DD-MM-YYYY) 4. TITLE AND...the problem of inference about an unknown parameter, the Bayesian approach requires a full probability model/likelihood which can be an obstacle

  3. Bayesian inference for psychology. Part II: Example applications with JASP.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan; Love, Jonathon; Marsman, Maarten; Jamil, Tahira; Ly, Alexander; Verhagen, Josine; Selker, Ravi; Gronau, Quentin F; Dropmann, Damian; Boutin, Bruno; Meerhoff, Frans; Knight, Patrick; Raj, Akash; van Kesteren, Erik-Jan; van Doorn, Johnny; Šmíra, Martin; Epskamp, Sacha; Etz, Alexander; Matzke, Dora; de Jong, Tim; van den Bergh, Don; Sarafoglou, Alexandra; Steingroever, Helen; Derks, Koen; Rouder, Jeffrey N; Morey, Richard D

    2018-02-01

    Bayesian hypothesis testing presents an attractive alternative to p value hypothesis testing. Part I of this series outlined several advantages of Bayesian hypothesis testing, including the ability to quantify evidence and the ability to monitor and update this evidence as data come in, without the need to know the intention with which the data were collected. Despite these and other practical advantages, Bayesian hypothesis tests are still reported relatively rarely. An important impediment to the widespread adoption of Bayesian tests is arguably the lack of user-friendly software for the run-of-the-mill statistical problems that confront psychologists for the analysis of almost every experiment: the t-test, ANOVA, correlation, regression, and contingency tables. In Part II of this series we introduce JASP ( http://www.jasp-stats.org ), an open-source, cross-platform, user-friendly graphical software package that allows users to carry out Bayesian hypothesis tests for standard statistical problems. JASP is based in part on the Bayesian analyses implemented in Morey and Rouder's BayesFactor package for R. Armed with JASP, the practical advantages of Bayesian hypothesis testing are only a mouse click away.

  4. Statistical tracking of tree-like tubular structures with efficient branching detection in 3D medical image data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, X.; Heimann, T.; Lo, P.

    2012-01-01

    to their robustness against image noise and pathological changes. However, most tracking methods are limited to a specific application and do not support branching structures efficiently. In this work, we present a novel statistical tracking approach for the extraction of different types of tubular structures...... with ringlike cross-sections. Domain-specific knowledge is learned from training data sets and integrated into the tracking process by simple adaption of parameters. In addition, an efficient branching detection algorithm is presented. This approach was evaluated by extracting coronary arteries from 32 CTA data...... for the tracking of coronary arteries were achieved. For the extraction of airway trees, 51.3% of the total tree length, 53.6% of the total number of branches and a 4.98% false positive rate were attained. In both experiments, our approach is comparable to state-of-the-art methods....

  5. Comparative efficacy and safety of approved treatments for macular oedema secondary to branch retinal vein occlusion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Regnier, Stephane A; Larsen, Michael; Bezlyak, Vladimir

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To compare the efficacy and safety of approved treatments for macular oedema secondary to branch retinal vein occlusion (BRVO). DESIGN: Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) evaluating the efficacy and safety of approved treatments for macular oedema secondary to BRVO were identified from...... an updated systematic review. SETTING: A Bayesian network meta-analysis of RCTs of treatments for macular oedema secondary to BRVO. INTERVENTIONS: Ranibizumab 0.5 mg pro re nata, aflibercept 2 mg monthly (2q4), dexamethasone 0.7 mg implant, laser photocoagulation, ranibizumab+laser, or sham intervention...... pressure (IOP)/ocular hypertension (OH). RESULTS: 8 RCTs were identified for inclusion with 1743 adult patients. The probability of being the most efficacious treatment at month 6 or 12 based on letters gained was 54% for ranibizumab monotherapy, 30% for aflibercept, 16% for ranibizumab plus laser...

  6. Improving Transparency and Replication in Bayesian Statistics : The WAMBS-Checklist

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Depaoli, Sarah; van de Schoot, Rens

    2017-01-01

    Bayesian statistical methods are slowly creeping into all fields of science and are becoming ever more popular in applied research. Although it is very attractive to use Bayesian statistics, our personal experience has led us to believe that naively applying Bayesian methods can be dangerous for at

  7. An introduction to using Bayesian linear regression with clinical data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baldwin, Scott A; Larson, Michael J

    2017-11-01

    Statistical training psychology focuses on frequentist methods. Bayesian methods are an alternative to standard frequentist methods. This article provides researchers with an introduction to fundamental ideas in Bayesian modeling. We use data from an electroencephalogram (EEG) and anxiety study to illustrate Bayesian models. Specifically, the models examine the relationship between error-related negativity (ERN), a particular event-related potential, and trait anxiety. Methodological topics covered include: how to set up a regression model in a Bayesian framework, specifying priors, examining convergence of the model, visualizing and interpreting posterior distributions, interval estimates, expected and predicted values, and model comparison tools. We also discuss situations where Bayesian methods can outperform frequentist methods as well has how to specify more complicated regression models. Finally, we conclude with recommendations about reporting guidelines for those using Bayesian methods in their own research. We provide data and R code for replicating our analyses. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Bayesian ARTMAP for regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sasu, L M; Andonie, R

    2013-10-01

    Bayesian ARTMAP (BA) is a recently introduced neural architecture which uses a combination of Fuzzy ARTMAP competitive learning and Bayesian learning. Training is generally performed online, in a single-epoch. During training, BA creates input data clusters as Gaussian categories, and also infers the conditional probabilities between input patterns and categories, and between categories and classes. During prediction, BA uses Bayesian posterior probability estimation. So far, BA was used only for classification. The goal of this paper is to analyze the efficiency of BA for regression problems. Our contributions are: (i) we generalize the BA algorithm using the clustering functionality of both ART modules, and name it BA for Regression (BAR); (ii) we prove that BAR is a universal approximator with the best approximation property. In other words, BAR approximates arbitrarily well any continuous function (universal approximation) and, for every given continuous function, there is one in the set of BAR approximators situated at minimum distance (best approximation); (iii) we experimentally compare the online trained BAR with several neural models, on the following standard regression benchmarks: CPU Computer Hardware, Boston Housing, Wisconsin Breast Cancer, and Communities and Crime. Our results show that BAR is an appropriate tool for regression tasks, both for theoretical and practical reasons. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Using Bayesian belief networks in adaptive management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    J.B. Nyberg; B.G. Marcot; R. Sulyma

    2006-01-01

    Bayesian belief and decision networks are relatively new modeling methods that are especially well suited to adaptive-management applications, but they appear not to have been widely used in adaptive management to date. Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) can serve many purposes for practioners of adaptive management, from illustrating system relations conceptually to...

  10. Spiral branches and star formation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zasov, A.V.

    1974-01-01

    Origin of spiral branches of galaxies and formation of stars in them are considered from the point of view of the theory of the gravitational gas condensation, one of comparatively young theories. Arguments are presented in favour of the stellar condensation theory. The concept of the star formation of gas is no longer a speculative hypothesis. This is a theory which assumes quantitative verification and explains qualitatively many facts observed. And still our knowledge on the nature of spiral branches is very poor. It still remains vague what processes give origin to spiral branches, why some galaxies have spirals and others have none. And shapes of spiral branches are diverse. Some cases are known when spiral branches spread outside boundaries of galaxies themselves. Such spirals arise exclusively in the region where there are two or some interacting galaxies. Only first steps have been made in the explanation of the galaxy spiral branches, and it is necessary to carry out new observations and new theoretical calculations

  11. Doing bayesian data analysis a tutorial with R and BUGS

    CERN Document Server

    Kruschke, John K

    2011-01-01

    There is an explosion of interest in Bayesian statistics, primarily because recently created computational methods have finally made Bayesian analysis obtainable to a wide audience. Doing Bayesian Data Analysis, A Tutorial Introduction with R and BUGS provides an accessible approach to Bayesian data analysis, as material is explained clearly with concrete examples. The book begins with the basics, including essential concepts of probability and random sampling, and gradually progresses to advanced hierarchical modeling methods for realistic data. The text delivers comprehensive coverage of all

  12. Bayesian estimation of dose rate effectiveness

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arnish, J.J.; Groer, P.G.

    2000-01-01

    A Bayesian statistical method was used to quantify the effectiveness of high dose rate 137 Cs gamma radiation at inducing fatal mammary tumours and increasing the overall mortality rate in BALB/c female mice. The Bayesian approach considers both the temporal and dose dependence of radiation carcinogenesis and total mortality. This paper provides the first direct estimation of dose rate effectiveness using Bayesian statistics. This statistical approach provides a quantitative description of the uncertainty of the factor characterising the dose rate in terms of a probability density function. The results show that a fixed dose from 137 Cs gamma radiation delivered at a high dose rate is more effective at inducing fatal mammary tumours and increasing the overall mortality rate in BALB/c female mice than the same dose delivered at a low dose rate. (author)

  13. BATSE gamma-ray burst line search. 2: Bayesian consistency methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Band, D. L.; Ford, L. A.; Matteson, J. L.; Briggs, M.; Paciesas, W.; Pendleton, G.; Preece, R.; Palmer, D.; Teegarden, B.; Schaefer, B.

    1994-01-01

    We describe a Bayesian methodology to evaluate the consistency between the reported Ginga and Burst and Transient Source Experiment (BATSE) detections of absorption features in gamma-ray burst spectra. Currently no features have been detected by BATSE, but this methodology will still be applicable if and when such features are discovered. The Bayesian methodology permits the comparison of hypotheses regarding the two detectors' observations and makes explicit the subjective aspects of our analysis (e.g., the quantification of our confidence in detector performance). We also present non-Bayesian consistency statistics. Based on preliminary calculations of line detectability, we find that both the Bayesian and non-Bayesian techniques show that the BATSE and Ginga observations are consistent given our understanding of these detectors.

  14. Current perspectives on shoot branching regulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cunquan YUAN,Lin XI,Yaping KOU,Yu ZHAO,Liangjun ZHAO

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Shoot branching is regulated by the complex interactions among hormones, development, and environmental factors. Recent studies into the regulatory mecha-nisms of shoot branching have focused on strigolactones, which is a new area of investigation in shoot branching regulation. Elucidation of the function of the D53 gene has allowed exploration of detailed mechanisms of action of strigolactones in regulating shoot branching. In addition, the recent discovery that sucrose is key for axillary bud release has challenged the established auxin theory, in which auxin is the principal agent in the control of apical dominance. These developments increase our understan-ding of branching control and indicate that regulation of shoot branching involves a complex network. Here, we first summarize advances in the systematic regulatory network of plant shoot branching based on current information. Then we describe recent developments in the synthesis and signal transduction of strigolactones. Based on these considerations, we further summarize the plant shoot branching regulatory network, including long distance systemic signals and local gene activity mediated by strigolactones following perception of external envi-ronmental signals, such as shading, in order to provide a comprehensive overview of plant shoot branching.

  15. Bayesian signal processing classical, modern, and particle filtering methods

    CERN Document Server

    Candy, James V

    2016-01-01

    This book aims to give readers a unified Bayesian treatment starting from the basics (Baye's rule) to the more advanced (Monte Carlo sampling), evolving to the next-generation model-based techniques (sequential Monte Carlo sampling). This next edition incorporates a new chapter on "Sequential Bayesian Detection," a new section on "Ensemble Kalman Filters" as well as an expansion of Case Studies that detail Bayesian solutions for a variety of applications. These studies illustrate Bayesian approaches to real-world problems incorporating detailed particle filter designs, adaptive particle filters and sequential Bayesian detectors. In addition to these major developments a variety of sections are expanded to "fill-in-the gaps" of the first edition. Here metrics for particle filter (PF) designs with emphasis on classical "sanity testing" lead to ensemble techniques as a basic requirement for performance analysis. The expansion of information theory metrics and their application to PF designs is fully developed an...

  16. Bayesian Networks for Modeling Dredging Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-10-01

    years, that algorithms have been developed to solve these problems efficiently. Most modern Bayesian network software uses junction tree (a.k.a. join... software was used to develop the network . This is by no means an exhaustive list of Bayesian network applications, but it is representative of recent...characteristic node (SCN), state- defining node ( SDN ), effect node (EFN), or value node. The five types of nodes can be described as follows: ERDC/EL TR-11

  17. A Bayesian classifier for symbol recognition

    OpenAIRE

    Barrat , Sabine; Tabbone , Salvatore; Nourrissier , Patrick

    2007-01-01

    URL : http://www.buyans.com/POL/UploadedFile/134_9977.pdf; International audience; We present in this paper an original adaptation of Bayesian networks to symbol recognition problem. More precisely, a descriptor combination method, which enables to improve significantly the recognition rate compared to the recognition rates obtained by each descriptor, is presented. In this perspective, we use a simple Bayesian classifier, called naive Bayes. In fact, probabilistic graphical models, more spec...

  18. Sparse reconstruction using distribution agnostic bayesian matching pursuit

    KAUST Repository

    Masood, Mudassir; Al-Naffouri, Tareq Y.

    2013-01-01

    A fast matching pursuit method using a Bayesian approach is introduced for sparse signal recovery. This method performs Bayesian estimates of sparse signals even when the signal prior is non-Gaussian or unknown. It is agnostic on signal statistics

  19. Bayesian emulation for optimization in multi-step portfolio decisions

    OpenAIRE

    Irie, Kaoru; West, Mike

    2016-01-01

    We discuss the Bayesian emulation approach to computational solution of multi-step portfolio studies in financial time series. "Bayesian emulation for decisions" involves mapping the technical structure of a decision analysis problem to that of Bayesian inference in a purely synthetic "emulating" statistical model. This provides access to standard posterior analytic, simulation and optimization methods that yield indirect solutions of the decision problem. We develop this in time series portf...

  20. Heterotachy and long-branch attraction in phylogenetics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rodrigue Nicolas

    2005-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Probabilistic methods have progressively supplanted the Maximum Parsimony (MP method for inferring phylogenetic trees. One of the major reasons for this shift was that MP is much more sensitive to the Long Branch Attraction (LBA artefact than is Maximum Likelihood (ML. However, recent work by Kolaczkowski and Thornton suggested, on the basis of simulations, that MP is less sensitive than ML to tree reconstruction artefacts generated by heterotachy, a phenomenon that corresponds to shifts in site-specific evolutionary rates over time. These results led these authors to recommend that the results of ML and MP analyses should be both reported and interpreted with the same caution. This specific conclusion revived the debate on the choice of the most accurate phylogenetic method for analysing real data in which various types of heterogeneities occur. However, variation of evolutionary rates across species was not explicitly incorporated in the original study of Kolaczkowski and Thornton, and in most of the subsequent heterotachous simulations published to date, where all terminal branch lengths were kept equal, an assumption that is biologically unrealistic. Results In this report, we performed more realistic simulations to evaluate the relative performance of MP and ML methods when two kinds of heterogeneities are considered: (i within-site rate variation (heterotachy, and (ii rate variation across lineages. Using a similar protocol as Kolaczkowski and Thornton to generate heterotachous datasets, we found that heterotachy, which constitutes a serious violation of existing models, decreases the accuracy of ML whatever the level of rate variation across lineages. In contrast, the accuracy of MP can either increase or decrease when the level of heterotachy increases, depending on the relative branch lengths. This result demonstrates that MP is not insensitive to heterotachy, contrary to the report of Kolaczkowski and Thornton

  1. Characterization of the Diameter, branch angle and longevity of axial branches of Nothofagusobliqua

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patricio Corvalán Vera

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The lack of knowledge about grow dynamics of the living tree crown of Nothofagusobliqua secondary growth forests strongly limits the objective formulation of silvicultural schemes oriented to the industrial production of high quality wood. Therefore, in this work, we described basic relationships between tree size, age and angle branches insertion and the crown. Considering a sample data of 59 dominant trees, distributed in different age conditions, we applied a combined analysis technique of stem analysis, steam taper analysis and thickest branch measurement in each decile of the total height. This approach allowed us to determine that there is a significant relationship between the steam diameter, the angle insertion and the age of the branch, as well as the size and age of the trees. Also, the thicker branches tend to have lower insertion angles, to be older, to be located at lower relative heights and to be located in larger diameter sections. Taking into consideration these relationships, it is possible to build new predicted branch models as tools for the development of silvicultural schemes to suit different log grade.

  2. Bayesian Analysis for Penalized Spline Regression Using WinBUGS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ciprian M. Crainiceanu

    2005-09-01

    Full Text Available Penalized splines can be viewed as BLUPs in a mixed model framework, which allows the use of mixed model software for smoothing. Thus, software originally developed for Bayesian analysis of mixed models can be used for penalized spline regression. Bayesian inference for nonparametric models enjoys the flexibility of nonparametric models and the exact inference provided by the Bayesian inferential machinery. This paper provides a simple, yet comprehensive, set of programs for the implementation of nonparametric Bayesian analysis in WinBUGS. Good mixing properties of the MCMC chains are obtained by using low-rank thin-plate splines, while simulation times per iteration are reduced employing WinBUGS specific computational tricks.

  3. Comparative Study of Inference Methods for Bayesian Nonnegative Matrix Factorisation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brouwer, Thomas; Frellsen, Jes; Liò, Pietro

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, we study the trade-offs of different inference approaches for Bayesian matrix factorisation methods, which are commonly used for predicting missing values, and for finding patterns in the data. In particular, we consider Bayesian nonnegative variants of matrix factorisation and tri......-factorisation, and compare non-probabilistic inference, Gibbs sampling, variational Bayesian inference, and a maximum-a-posteriori approach. The variational approach is new for the Bayesian nonnegative models. We compare their convergence, and robustness to noise and sparsity of the data, on both synthetic and real...

  4. Branch prediction in the pentium family

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fog, Agner

    1998-01-01

    How the branch prediction mechanism in the Pentium has been uncovered with all its quirks, and the incredibly more effective branch prediction in the later versions.......How the branch prediction mechanism in the Pentium has been uncovered with all its quirks, and the incredibly more effective branch prediction in the later versions....

  5. Optimizing Prediction Using Bayesian Model Averaging: Examples Using Large-Scale Educational Assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, David; Lee, Chansoon

    2018-01-01

    This article provides a review of Bayesian model averaging as a means of optimizing the predictive performance of common statistical models applied to large-scale educational assessments. The Bayesian framework recognizes that in addition to parameter uncertainty, there is uncertainty in the choice of models themselves. A Bayesian approach to addressing the problem of model uncertainty is the method of Bayesian model averaging. Bayesian model averaging searches the space of possible models for a set of submodels that satisfy certain scientific principles and then averages the coefficients across these submodels weighted by each model's posterior model probability (PMP). Using the weighted coefficients for prediction has been shown to yield optimal predictive performance according to certain scoring rules. We demonstrate the utility of Bayesian model averaging for prediction in education research with three examples: Bayesian regression analysis, Bayesian logistic regression, and a recently developed approach for Bayesian structural equation modeling. In each case, the model-averaged estimates are shown to yield better prediction of the outcome of interest than any submodel based on predictive coverage and the log-score rule. Implications for the design of large-scale assessments when the goal is optimal prediction in a policy context are discussed.

  6. Advanced Branching Control and Characterization of Inorganic Semiconducting Nanocrystals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hughes, Steven Michael [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2007-01-01

    The ability to finely tune the size and shape of inorganic semiconducting nanocrystals is an area of great interest, as the more control one has, the more applications will be possible for their use. The first two basic shapes develped in nanocrystals were the sphere and the anistropic nanorod. the II_VI materials being used such as Cadmium Selenide (CdSe) and Cadmium Telluride (CdTe), exhibit polytypism, which allows them to form in either the hexagonally packed wurtzite or cubically packed zinc blende crystalline phase. The nanorods are wurtzite with the length of the rod growing along the c-axis. As this grows, stacking faults may form, which are layers of zinc blende in the otherwise wurtzite crystal. Using this polytypism, though, the first generation of branched crystals were developed in the form of the CdTe tetrapod. This is a nanocrystal that nucleates in the zincblend form, creating a tetrahedral core, on which four wurtzite arms are grown. This structure opened up the possibility of even more complex shapes and applications. This disseration investigates the advancement of branching control and further understanding the materials polytypism in the form of the stacking faults in nanorods.

  7. Mesozooplankton abundance data from the fjord branch Kapisigdlit located in the Godthaabsfjord system, West Greenland, 2010

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2013-01-01

    branch, in the middle of a shallower inner creek . St. 1-4 was covering deeper parts of the fjord, and St. 5 was located on the slope leading up to the shallow inner creek. Mesozooplankton was sampled by vertical net tows using a Hydrobios Multinet (type Mini) equipped with a flow meter and 50 µm mesh...... to lowest possible taxonomic level (approx. 400 per sample), length measured and counted. Copepods were sorted into development stages (nauplii stage 1 - copepodite stage 6) using morphological features and sizes, and up to 10 individuals of each stage was length measured...

  8. Can natural selection encode Bayesian priors?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramírez, Juan Camilo; Marshall, James A R

    2017-08-07

    The evolutionary success of many organisms depends on their ability to make decisions based on estimates of the state of their environment (e.g., predation risk) from uncertain information. These decision problems have optimal solutions and individuals in nature are expected to evolve the behavioural mechanisms to make decisions as if using the optimal solutions. Bayesian inference is the optimal method to produce estimates from uncertain data, thus natural selection is expected to favour individuals with the behavioural mechanisms to make decisions as if they were computing Bayesian estimates in typically-experienced environments, although this does not necessarily imply that favoured decision-makers do perform Bayesian computations exactly. Each individual should evolve to behave as if updating a prior estimate of the unknown environment variable to a posterior estimate as it collects evidence. The prior estimate represents the decision-maker's default belief regarding the environment variable, i.e., the individual's default 'worldview' of the environment. This default belief has been hypothesised to be shaped by natural selection and represent the environment experienced by the individual's ancestors. We present an evolutionary model to explore how accurately Bayesian prior estimates can be encoded genetically and shaped by natural selection when decision-makers learn from uncertain information. The model simulates the evolution of a population of individuals that are required to estimate the probability of an event. Every individual has a prior estimate of this probability and collects noisy cues from the environment in order to update its prior belief to a Bayesian posterior estimate with the evidence gained. The prior is inherited and passed on to offspring. Fitness increases with the accuracy of the posterior estimates produced. Simulations show that prior estimates become accurate over evolutionary time. In addition to these 'Bayesian' individuals, we also

  9. A branch-heterogeneous model of protein evolution for efficient inference of ancestral sequences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groussin, M; Boussau, B; Gouy, M

    2013-07-01

    Most models of nucleotide or amino acid substitution used in phylogenetic studies assume that the evolutionary process has been homogeneous across lineages and that composition of nucleotides or amino acids has remained the same throughout the tree. These oversimplified assumptions are refuted by the observation that compositional variability characterizes extant biological sequences. Branch-heterogeneous models of protein evolution that account for compositional variability have been developed, but are not yet in common use because of the large number of parameters required, leading to high computational costs and potential overparameterization. Here, we present a new branch-nonhomogeneous and nonstationary model of protein evolution that captures more accurately the high complexity of sequence evolution. This model, henceforth called Correspondence and likelihood analysis (COaLA), makes use of a correspondence analysis to reduce the number of parameters to be optimized through maximum likelihood, focusing on most of the compositional variation observed in the data. The model was thoroughly tested on both simulated and biological data sets to show its high performance in terms of data fitting and CPU time. COaLA efficiently estimates ancestral amino acid frequencies and sequences, making it relevant for studies aiming at reconstructing and resurrecting ancestral amino acid sequences. Finally, we applied COaLA on a concatenate of universal amino acid sequences to confirm previous results obtained with a nonhomogeneous Bayesian model regarding the early pattern of adaptation to optimal growth temperature, supporting the mesophilic nature of the Last Universal Common Ancestor.

  10. Mechanistic curiosity will not kill the Bayesian cat

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Borsboom, D.; Wagenmakers, E.-J.; Romeijn, J.-W.

    2011-01-01

    Jones & Love (J&L) suggest that Bayesian approaches to the explanation of human behavior should be constrained by mechanistic theories. We argue that their proposal misconstrues the relation between process models, such as the Bayesian model, and mechanisms. While mechanistic theories can answer

  11. Mechanistic curiosity will not kill the Bayesian cat

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Borsboom, Denny; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan; Romeijn, Jan-Willem

    Jones & Love (J&L) suggest that Bayesian approaches to the explanation of human behavior should be constrained by mechanistic theories. We argue that their proposal misconstrues the relation between process models, such as the Bayesian model, and mechanisms. While mechanistic theories can answer

  12. Non-homogeneous dynamic Bayesian networks for continuous data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grzegorczyk, Marco; Husmeier, Dirk

    Classical dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs) are based on the homogeneous Markov assumption and cannot deal with non-homogeneous temporal processes. Various approaches to relax the homogeneity assumption have recently been proposed. The present paper presents a combination of a Bayesian network with

  13. Statistics: a Bayesian perspective

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Berry, Donald A

    1996-01-01

    ...: it is the only introductory textbook based on Bayesian ideas, it combines concepts and methods, it presents statistics as a means of integrating data into the significant process, it develops ideas...

  14. Embedding the results of focussed Bayesian fusion into a global context

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sander, Jennifer; Heizmann, Michael

    2014-05-01

    Bayesian statistics offers a well-founded and powerful fusion methodology also for the fusion of heterogeneous information sources. However, except in special cases, the needed posterior distribution is not analytically derivable. As consequence, Bayesian fusion may cause unacceptably high computational and storage costs in practice. Local Bayesian fusion approaches aim at reducing the complexity of the Bayesian fusion methodology significantly. This is done by concentrating the actual Bayesian fusion on the potentially most task relevant parts of the domain of the Properties of Interest. Our research on these approaches is motivated by an analogy to criminal investigations where criminalists pursue clues also only locally. This publication follows previous publications on a special local Bayesian fusion technique called focussed Bayesian fusion. Here, the actual calculation of the posterior distribution gets completely restricted to a suitably chosen local context. By this, the global posterior distribution is not completely determined. Strategies for using the results of a focussed Bayesian analysis appropriately are needed. In this publication, we primarily contrast different ways of embedding the results of focussed Bayesian fusion explicitly into a global context. To obtain a unique global posterior distribution, we analyze the application of the Maximum Entropy Principle that has been shown to be successfully applicable in metrology and in different other areas. To address the special need for making further decisions subsequently to the actual fusion task, we further analyze criteria for decision making under partial information.

  15. A Bayesian Optimal Design for Sequential Accelerated Degradation Testing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoyang Li

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available When optimizing an accelerated degradation testing (ADT plan, the initial values of unknown model parameters must be pre-specified. However, it is usually difficult to obtain the exact values, since many uncertainties are embedded in these parameters. Bayesian ADT optimal design was presented to address this problem by using prior distributions to capture these uncertainties. Nevertheless, when the difference between a prior distribution and actual situation is large, the existing Bayesian optimal design might cause some over-testing or under-testing issues. For example, the implemented ADT following the optimal ADT plan consumes too much testing resources or few accelerated degradation data are obtained during the ADT. To overcome these obstacles, a Bayesian sequential step-down-stress ADT design is proposed in this article. During the sequential ADT, the test under the highest stress level is firstly conducted based on the initial prior information to quickly generate degradation data. Then, the data collected under higher stress levels are employed to construct the prior distributions for the test design under lower stress levels by using the Bayesian inference. In the process of optimization, the inverse Gaussian (IG process is assumed to describe the degradation paths, and the Bayesian D-optimality is selected as the optimal objective. A case study on an electrical connector’s ADT plan is provided to illustrate the application of the proposed Bayesian sequential ADT design method. Compared with the results from a typical static Bayesian ADT plan, the proposed design could guarantee more stable and precise estimations of different reliability measures.

  16. A Bayesian Method for Weighted Sampling

    OpenAIRE

    Lo, Albert Y.

    1993-01-01

    Bayesian statistical inference for sampling from weighted distribution models is studied. Small-sample Bayesian bootstrap clone (BBC) approximations to the posterior distribution are discussed. A second-order property for the BBC in unweighted i.i.d. sampling is given. A consequence is that BBC approximations to a posterior distribution of the mean and to the sampling distribution of the sample average, can be made asymptotically accurate by a proper choice of the random variables that genera...

  17. Branching processes in biology

    CERN Document Server

    Kimmel, Marek

    2015-01-01

    This book provides a theoretical background of branching processes and discusses their biological applications. Branching processes are a well-developed and powerful set of tools in the field of applied probability. The range of applications considered includes molecular biology, cellular biology, human evolution and medicine. The branching processes discussed include Galton-Watson, Markov, Bellman-Harris, Multitype, and General Processes. As an aid to understanding specific examples, two introductory chapters, and two glossaries are included that provide background material in mathematics and in biology. The book will be of interest to scientists who work in quantitative modeling of biological systems, particularly probabilists, mathematical biologists, biostatisticians, cell biologists, molecular biologists, and bioinformaticians. The authors are a mathematician and cell biologist who have collaborated for more than a decade in the field of branching processes in biology for this new edition. This second ex...

  18. Bayesian Geostatistical Design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Diggle, Peter; Lophaven, Søren Nymand

    2006-01-01

    locations to, or deletion of locations from, an existing design, and prospective design, which consists of choosing positions for a new set of sampling locations. We propose a Bayesian design criterion which focuses on the goal of efficient spatial prediction whilst allowing for the fact that model...

  19. Renal Branch Artery Stenosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersson, Zarah; Thisted, Ebbe; Andersen, Ulrik Bjørn

    2017-01-01

    Renovascular hypertension is a common cause of pediatric hypertension. In the fraction of cases that are unrelated to syndromes such as neurofibromatosis, patients with a solitary stenosis on a branch of the renal artery are common and can be diagnostically challenging. Imaging techniques...... that perform well in the diagnosis of main renal artery stenosis may fall short when it comes to branch artery stenosis. We report 2 cases that illustrate these difficulties and show that a branch artery stenosis may be overlooked even by the gold standard method, renal angiography....

  20. The effects of hydroxy fatty acids on the hyphal branching of germinated spores of AM fungi.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagahashi, Gerald; Douds, David D

    2011-01-01

    Two hydroxy fatty acids, tentatively identified previously in carrot root exudates, were tested for their effects on hyphal growth of the arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungus, Gigaspora gigantea (Nicol. and Gerd.) Gerdemann and Trappe. Best results were achieved with a long-term bioassay (7-8d) with nanomolar concentrations throughout the Petri dish in contrast to the rapid microinjection bioassay (16-24h) in which nanogram quantities were injected near growing hyphal tips. When 5nM 2-hydroxy fatty acids of various chain length were tested, the length of the hydroxyl fatty acid was significant since only 2-hydroxytetradecanoic acid (2OH-TDA) and to a slightly lesser degree, 2-hydroxydodecanoic acid (2OH-DDA) induced a hyphal growth response while 2-hydroxydecanoic acid (2OH-DA) and 2-hydroxyhexadecanoic (2OH-HDA) acid did not. The position of the hydroxyl group was critical since 5nM 3-hydroxytetradecanoic acid (3OH-TDA) had no effect on hyphal growth. The length of the non-hydroxy containing straight chain fatty acid, per se, did not appear significant since none of these fatty acids had an effect on hyphal growth. The morphological growth response promoted by 2OH-TDA consisted of multiple lateral branches, spaced fairly regularly apart, along the primary germ tubes as well as some lateral branch formation off the major secondary hyphae. This growth response was identical to that observed when germinated spores were allowed to grow towards cultured carrot roots in vitro. This response to 2OH-TDA also was observed with an unidentified Gigaspora species but no morphological response was observed with Glomus intraradices Schenck and Smith. The results indicate that 2-hydroxy fatty acids are another putative category of root exudate signals perceived by Gigaspora species, stimulating an increase in elongated lateral branches. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  1. Bayesian inference for psychology. Part I : Theoretical advantages and practical ramifications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wagenmakers, E.-J.; Marsman, M.; Jamil, T.; Ly, A.; Verhagen, J.; Love, J.; Selker, R.; Gronau, Q.F.; Šmíra, M.; Epskamp, S.; Matzke, D.; Rouder, J.N.; Morey, R.D.

    2018-01-01

    Bayesian parameter estimation and Bayesian hypothesis testing present attractive alternatives to classical inference using confidence intervals and p values. In part I of this series we outline ten prominent advantages of the Bayesian approach. Many of these advantages translate to concrete

  2. A tutorial introduction to Bayesian models of cognitive development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perfors, Amy; Tenenbaum, Joshua B; Griffiths, Thomas L; Xu, Fei

    2011-09-01

    We present an introduction to Bayesian inference as it is used in probabilistic models of cognitive development. Our goal is to provide an intuitive and accessible guide to the what, the how, and the why of the Bayesian approach: what sorts of problems and data the framework is most relevant for, and how and why it may be useful for developmentalists. We emphasize a qualitative understanding of Bayesian inference, but also include information about additional resources for those interested in the cognitive science applications, mathematical foundations, or machine learning details in more depth. In addition, we discuss some important interpretation issues that often arise when evaluating Bayesian models in cognitive science. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Vegetation survey of PEN Branch wetlands

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1991-01-01

    A survey was conducted of vegetation along Pen Branch Creek at Savannah River Site (SRS) in support of K-Reactor restart. Plants were identified to species by overstory, understory, shrub, and groundcover strata. Abundance was also characterized and richness and diversity calculated. Based on woody species basal area, the Pen Branch delta was the most impacted, followed by the sections between the reactor and the delta. Species richness for shrub and groundcover strata were also lowest in the delta. No endangered plant species were found. Three upland pine areas were also sampled. In support of K Reactor restart, this report summarizes a study of the wetland vegetation along Pen Branch. Reactor effluent enters Indian Grove Branch and then flows into Pen Branch and the Pen Branch Delta.

  4. Approximate Bayesian evaluations of measurement uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Possolo, Antonio; Bodnar, Olha

    2018-04-01

    The Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM) includes formulas that produce an estimate of a scalar output quantity that is a function of several input quantities, and an approximate evaluation of the associated standard uncertainty. This contribution presents approximate, Bayesian counterparts of those formulas for the case where the output quantity is a parameter of the joint probability distribution of the input quantities, also taking into account any information about the value of the output quantity available prior to measurement expressed in the form of a probability distribution on the set of possible values for the measurand. The approximate Bayesian estimates and uncertainty evaluations that we present have a long history and illustrious pedigree, and provide sufficiently accurate approximations in many applications, yet are very easy to implement in practice. Differently from exact Bayesian estimates, which involve either (analytical or numerical) integrations, or Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling, the approximations that we describe involve only numerical optimization and simple algebra. Therefore, they make Bayesian methods widely accessible to metrologists. We illustrate the application of the proposed techniques in several instances of measurement: isotopic ratio of silver in a commercial silver nitrate; odds of cryptosporidiosis in AIDS patients; height of a manometer column; mass fraction of chromium in a reference material; and potential-difference in a Zener voltage standard.

  5. Study on shielded pump system failure analysis method based on Bayesian network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bao Yilan; Huang Gaofeng; Tong Lili; Cao Xuewu

    2012-01-01

    This paper applies Bayesian network to the system failure analysis, with an aim to improve knowledge representation of the uncertainty logic and multi-fault states in system failure analysis. A Bayesian network for shielded pump failure analysis is presented, conducting fault parameter learning, updating Bayesian network parameter based on new samples. Finally, through the Bayesian network inference, vulnerability in this system, the largest possible failure modes, and the fault probability are obtained. The powerful ability of Bayesian network to analyze system fault is illustrated by examples. (authors)

  6. Bayesian Dark Knowledge

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Korattikara, A.; Rathod, V.; Murphy, K.; Welling, M.; Cortes, C.; Lawrence, N.D.; Lee, D.D.; Sugiyama, M.; Garnett, R.

    2015-01-01

    We consider the problem of Bayesian parameter estimation for deep neural networks, which is important in problem settings where we may have little data, and/ or where we need accurate posterior predictive densities p(y|x, D), e.g., for applications involving bandits or active learning. One simple

  7. Bayesian grid matching

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hartelius, Karsten; Carstensen, Jens Michael

    2003-01-01

    A method for locating distorted grid structures in images is presented. The method is based on the theories of template matching and Bayesian image restoration. The grid is modeled as a deformable template. Prior knowledge of the grid is described through a Markov random field (MRF) model which r...

  8. An introduction to Bayesian statistics in health psychology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Depaoli, Sarah; Rus, Holly; Clifton, James; van de Schoot, A.G.J.; Tiemensma, Jitske

    2017-01-01

    The aim of the current article is to provide a brief introduction to Bayesian statistics within the field of Health Psychology. Bayesian methods are increasing in prevalence in applied fields, and they have been shown in simulation research to improve the estimation accuracy of structural equation

  9. Bayesian estimation of the discrete coefficient of determination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Ting; Braga-Neto, Ulisses M

    2016-12-01

    The discrete coefficient of determination (CoD) measures the nonlinear interaction between discrete predictor and target variables and has had far-reaching applications in Genomic Signal Processing. Previous work has addressed the inference of the discrete CoD using classical parametric and nonparametric approaches. In this paper, we introduce a Bayesian framework for the inference of the discrete CoD. We derive analytically the optimal minimum mean-square error (MMSE) CoD estimator, as well as a CoD estimator based on the Optimal Bayesian Predictor (OBP). For the latter estimator, exact expressions for its bias, variance, and root-mean-square (RMS) are given. The accuracy of both Bayesian CoD estimators with non-informative and informative priors, under fixed or random parameters, is studied via analytical and numerical approaches. We also demonstrate the application of the proposed Bayesian approach in the inference of gene regulatory networks, using gene-expression data from a previously published study on metastatic melanoma.

  10. A Bayesian approach to particle identification in ALICE

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2016-01-01

    Among the LHC experiments, ALICE has unique particle identification (PID) capabilities exploiting different types of detectors. During Run 1, a Bayesian approach to PID was developed and intensively tested. It facilitates the combination of information from different sub-systems. The adopted methodology and formalism as well as the performance of the Bayesian PID approach for charged pions, kaons and protons in the central barrel of ALICE will be reviewed. Results are presented with PID performed via measurements of specific energy loss (dE/dx) and time-of-flight using information from the TPC and TOF detectors, respectively. Methods to extract priors from data and to compare PID efficiencies and misidentification probabilities in data and Monte Carlo using high-purity samples of identified particles will be presented. Bayesian PID results were found consistent with previous measurements published by ALICE. The Bayesian PID approach gives a higher signal-to-background ratio and a similar or larger statist...

  11. Optimal Detection under the Restricted Bayesian Criterion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shujun Liu

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to find a suitable decision rule for a binary composite hypothesis-testing problem with a partial or coarse prior distribution. To alleviate the negative impact of the information uncertainty, a constraint is considered that the maximum conditional risk cannot be greater than a predefined value. Therefore, the objective of this paper becomes to find the optimal decision rule to minimize the Bayes risk under the constraint. By applying the Lagrange duality, the constrained optimization problem is transformed to an unconstrained optimization problem. In doing so, the restricted Bayesian decision rule is obtained as a classical Bayesian decision rule corresponding to a modified prior distribution. Based on this transformation, the optimal restricted Bayesian decision rule is analyzed and the corresponding algorithm is developed. Furthermore, the relation between the Bayes risk and the predefined value of the constraint is also discussed. The Bayes risk obtained via the restricted Bayesian decision rule is a strictly decreasing and convex function of the constraint on the maximum conditional risk. Finally, the numerical results including a detection example are presented and agree with the theoretical results.

  12. Bayesian approach and application to operation safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Procaccia, H.; Suhner, M.Ch.

    2003-01-01

    The management of industrial risks requires the development of statistical and probabilistic analyses which use all the available convenient information in order to compensate the insufficient experience feedback in a domain where accidents and incidents remain too scarce to perform a classical statistical frequency analysis. The Bayesian decision approach is well adapted to this problem because it integrates both the expertise and the experience feedback. The domain of knowledge is widen, the forecasting study becomes possible and the decisions-remedial actions are strengthen thanks to risk-cost-benefit optimization analyzes. This book presents the bases of the Bayesian approach and its concrete applications in various industrial domains. After a mathematical presentation of the industrial operation safety concepts and of the Bayesian approach principles, this book treats of some of the problems that can be solved thanks to this approach: softwares reliability, controls linked with the equipments warranty, dynamical updating of databases, expertise modeling and weighting, Bayesian optimization in the domains of maintenance, quality control, tests and design of new equipments. A synthesis of the mathematical formulae used in this approach is given in conclusion. (J.S.)

  13. Towards Bayesian Inference of the Fast-Ion Distribution Function

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stagner, L.; Heidbrink, W.W.; Salewski, Mirko

    2012-01-01

    sensitivity of the measurements are incorporated into Bayesian likelihood probabilities, while prior probabilities enforce physical constraints. As an initial step, this poster uses Bayesian statistics to infer the DIII-D electron density profile from multiple diagnostic measurements. Likelihood functions....... However, when theory and experiment disagree (for one or more diagnostics), it is unclear how to proceed. Bayesian statistics provides a framework to infer the DF, quantify errors, and reconcile discrepant diagnostic measurements. Diagnostic errors and ``weight functions" that describe the phase space...

  14. Bayesian Correlation Analysis for Sequence Count Data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Sánchez-Taltavull

    Full Text Available Evaluating the similarity of different measured variables is a fundamental task of statistics, and a key part of many bioinformatics algorithms. Here we propose a Bayesian scheme for estimating the correlation between different entities' measurements based on high-throughput sequencing data. These entities could be different genes or miRNAs whose expression is measured by RNA-seq, different transcription factors or histone marks whose expression is measured by ChIP-seq, or even combinations of different types of entities. Our Bayesian formulation accounts for both measured signal levels and uncertainty in those levels, due to varying sequencing depth in different experiments and to varying absolute levels of individual entities, both of which affect the precision of the measurements. In comparison with a traditional Pearson correlation analysis, we show that our Bayesian correlation analysis retains high correlations when measurement confidence is high, but suppresses correlations when measurement confidence is low-especially for entities with low signal levels. In addition, we consider the influence of priors on the Bayesian correlation estimate. Perhaps surprisingly, we show that naive, uniform priors on entities' signal levels can lead to highly biased correlation estimates, particularly when different experiments have widely varying sequencing depths. However, we propose two alternative priors that provably mitigate this problem. We also prove that, like traditional Pearson correlation, our Bayesian correlation calculation constitutes a kernel in the machine learning sense, and thus can be used as a similarity measure in any kernel-based machine learning algorithm. We demonstrate our approach on two RNA-seq datasets and one miRNA-seq dataset.

  15. A Bayesian approach to meta-analysis of plant pathology studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mila, A L; Ngugi, H K

    2011-01-01

    Bayesian statistical methods are used for meta-analysis in many disciplines, including medicine, molecular biology, and engineering, but have not yet been applied for quantitative synthesis of plant pathology studies. In this paper, we illustrate the key concepts of Bayesian statistics and outline the differences between Bayesian and classical (frequentist) methods in the way parameters describing population attributes are considered. We then describe a Bayesian approach to meta-analysis and present a plant pathological example based on studies evaluating the efficacy of plant protection products that induce systemic acquired resistance for the management of fire blight of apple. In a simple random-effects model assuming a normal distribution of effect sizes and no prior information (i.e., a noninformative prior), the results of the Bayesian meta-analysis are similar to those obtained with classical methods. Implementing the same model with a Student's t distribution and a noninformative prior for the effect sizes, instead of a normal distribution, yields similar results for all but acibenzolar-S-methyl (Actigard) which was evaluated only in seven studies in this example. Whereas both the classical (P = 0.28) and the Bayesian analysis with a noninformative prior (95% credibility interval [CRI] for the log response ratio: -0.63 to 0.08) indicate a nonsignificant effect for Actigard, specifying a t distribution resulted in a significant, albeit variable, effect for this product (CRI: -0.73 to -0.10). These results confirm the sensitivity of the analytical outcome (i.e., the posterior distribution) to the choice of prior in Bayesian meta-analyses involving a limited number of studies. We review some pertinent literature on more advanced topics, including modeling of among-study heterogeneity, publication bias, analyses involving a limited number of studies, and methods for dealing with missing data, and show how these issues can be approached in a Bayesian framework

  16. Inference in hybrid Bayesian networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Langseth, Helge; Nielsen, Thomas D.; Rumi, Rafael; Salmeron, Antonio

    2009-01-01

    Since the 1980s, Bayesian networks (BNs) have become increasingly popular for building statistical models of complex systems. This is particularly true for boolean systems, where BNs often prove to be a more efficient modelling framework than traditional reliability techniques (like fault trees and reliability block diagrams). However, limitations in the BNs' calculation engine have prevented BNs from becoming equally popular for domains containing mixtures of both discrete and continuous variables (the so-called hybrid domains). In this paper we focus on these difficulties, and summarize some of the last decade's research on inference in hybrid Bayesian networks. The discussions are linked to an example model for estimating human reliability.

  17. Identifying the rooted species tree from the distribution of unrooted gene trees under the coalescent.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allman, Elizabeth S; Degnan, James H; Rhodes, John A

    2011-06-01

    Gene trees are evolutionary trees representing the ancestry of genes sampled from multiple populations. Species trees represent populations of individuals-each with many genes-splitting into new populations or species. The coalescent process, which models ancestry of gene copies within populations, is often used to model the probability distribution of gene trees given a fixed species tree. This multispecies coalescent model provides a framework for phylogeneticists to infer species trees from gene trees using maximum likelihood or Bayesian approaches. Because the coalescent models a branching process over time, all trees are typically assumed to be rooted in this setting. Often, however, gene trees inferred by traditional phylogenetic methods are unrooted. We investigate probabilities of unrooted gene trees under the multispecies coalescent model. We show that when there are four species with one gene sampled per species, the distribution of unrooted gene tree topologies identifies the unrooted species tree topology and some, but not all, information in the species tree edges (branch lengths). The location of the root on the species tree is not identifiable in this situation. However, for 5 or more species with one gene sampled per species, we show that the distribution of unrooted gene tree topologies identifies the rooted species tree topology and all its internal branch lengths. The length of any pendant branch leading to a leaf of the species tree is also identifiable for any species from which more than one gene is sampled.

  18. The image recognition based on neural network and Bayesian decision

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Chugege

    2018-04-01

    The artificial neural network began in 1940, which is an important part of artificial intelligence. At present, it has become a hot topic in the fields of neuroscience, computer science, brain science, mathematics, and psychology. Thomas Bayes firstly reported the Bayesian theory in 1763. After the development in the twentieth century, it has been widespread in all areas of statistics. In recent years, due to the solution of the problem of high-dimensional integral calculation, Bayesian Statistics has been improved theoretically, which solved many problems that cannot be solved by classical statistics and is also applied to the interdisciplinary fields. In this paper, the related concepts and principles of the artificial neural network are introduced. It also summarizes the basic content and principle of Bayesian Statistics, and combines the artificial neural network technology and Bayesian decision theory and implement them in all aspects of image recognition, such as enhanced face detection method based on neural network and Bayesian decision, as well as the image classification based on the Bayesian decision. It can be seen that the combination of artificial intelligence and statistical algorithms has always been the hot research topic.

  19. Editorial: Bayesian benefits for child psychology and psychiatry researchers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oldehinkel, Albertine J

    2016-09-01

    For many scientists, performing statistical tests has become an almost automated routine. However, p-values are frequently used and interpreted incorrectly; and even when used appropriately, p-values tend to provide answers that do not match researchers' questions and hypotheses well. Bayesian statistics present an elegant and often more suitable alternative. The Bayesian approach has rarely been applied in child psychology and psychiatry research so far, but the development of user-friendly software packages and tutorials has placed it well within reach now. Because Bayesian analyses require a more refined definition of hypothesized probabilities of possible outcomes than the classical approach, going Bayesian may offer the additional benefit of sparkling the development and refinement of theoretical models in our field. © 2016 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

  20. The Test of Inaccurate Position of Renography Detector to Relative UptakeFigure and Individual Excretion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bambang-Supardiyono; Prayitno

    2000-01-01

    Accuracy of detector position toward the kidney location (preciseposition) in renography will resulting the maximum count figure, detectorposition change from the precise point (inaccurate) will decreasing the countrate. Therefore for it had been simulated the influence of count figure ofright kidney (fixed left kidney count) ± 5 % to ± 20 % to relativeuptake figure and individual excretion. Based on the calculation it was foundthat the relation of detector position ± 0.5 cm to ± 2 cm from theprecise point will have effect to relative uptake figure ± (1.25 % to 5.00%), the fixed individual excretion figure. The change is still can beaccepted because the qualitative information with 10 % accuracy is stillacceptable. (author)

  1. Bayesian Inference Methods for Sparse Channel Estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Niels Lovmand

    2013-01-01

    This thesis deals with sparse Bayesian learning (SBL) with application to radio channel estimation. As opposed to the classical approach for sparse signal representation, we focus on the problem of inferring complex signals. Our investigations within SBL constitute the basis for the development...... of Bayesian inference algorithms for sparse channel estimation. Sparse inference methods aim at finding the sparse representation of a signal given in some overcomplete dictionary of basis vectors. Within this context, one of our main contributions to the field of SBL is a hierarchical representation...... analysis of the complex prior representation, where we show that the ability to induce sparse estimates of a given prior heavily depends on the inference method used and, interestingly, whether real or complex variables are inferred. We also show that the Bayesian estimators derived from the proposed...

  2. Bayesian-based localization in inhomogeneous transmission media

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nadimi, E. S.; Blanes-Vidal, V.; Johansen, P. M.

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a novel robust probabilistic approach based on the Bayesian inference using received-signal-strength (RSS) measurements with varying path-loss exponent. We derived the probability density function (pdf) of the distance between any two sensors in the network with heteroge......In this paper, we propose a novel robust probabilistic approach based on the Bayesian inference using received-signal-strength (RSS) measurements with varying path-loss exponent. We derived the probability density function (pdf) of the distance between any two sensors in the network...... with heterogeneous transmission medium as a function of the given RSS measurements and the characteristics of the heterogeneous medium. The results of this study show that the localization mean square error (MSE) of the Bayesian-based method outperformed all other existing localization approaches. © 2013 ACM....

  3. Impact of Branched-Chain Amino Acid Catabolism on Fatty Acid and Alkene Biosynthesis in Micrococcus luteus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Surger, Maximilian J; Angelov, Angel; Stier, Philipp; Übelacker, Maria; Liebl, Wolfgang

    2018-01-01

    Micrococcus luteus naturally produces alkenes, unsaturated aliphatic hydrocarbons, and represents a promising host to produce hydrocarbons as constituents of biofuels and lubricants. In this work, we identify the genes for key enzymes of the branched-chain amino acid catabolism in M. luteus , whose first metabolic steps lead also to the formation of primer molecules for branched-chain fatty acid and olefin biosynthesis, and demonstrate how these genes can be used to manipulate the production of specific olefins in this organism. We constructed mutants of several gene candidates involved in the branched-chain amino acid metabolism or its regulation and investigated the resulting changes in the cellular fatty acid and olefin profiles by GC/MS. The gene cluster encoding the components of the branched-chain α-keto acid dehydrogenase (BCKD) complex was identified by deletion and promoter exchange mutagenesis. Overexpression of the BCKD gene cluster resulted in about threefold increased olefin production whereas deletion of the cluster led to a drastic reduction in branched-chain fatty acid content and a complete loss of olefin production. The specificities of the acyl-CoA dehydrogenases of the branched amino acid degradation pathways were deduced from the fatty acid and olefin profiles of the respective deletion mutant strains. In addition, growth experiments with branched amino acids as the only nitrogen source were carried out with the mutants in order to confirm our annotations. Both the deletion mutant of the BCKD complex, responsible for the further degradation of all three branched-chain amino acids, as well as the deletion mutant of the proposed isovaleryl-CoA dehydrogenase (specific for leucine degradation) were not able to grow on leucine in contrast to the parental strain. In conclusion, our experiments allow the unambigous assignment of specific functions to the genes for key enzymes of the branched-chain amino acid metabolism of M. luteus . We also show how

  4. Mesozooplankton biomass data from the Kapisigdlit an inner fjord branch of the Godthaabsfjord system, West Greenland, 2010

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2013-01-01

    branch, in the middle of a shallower inner creek . St. 1-4 was covering deeper parts of the fjord, and St. 5 was located on the slope leading up to the shallow inner creek. Mesozooplankton was sampled by vertical net tows using a Hydrobios Multinet (type Mini) equipped with a flow meter and 50 µm mesh...... to lowest possible taxonomic level (approx. 400 per sample), length measured and counted. Copepods were sorted into development stages (nauplii stage 1 - copepodite stage 6) using morphological features and sizes, and up to 10 individuals of each stage was length measured...

  5. KAJIAN PELEPAH KELAPA SEBAGAI SERAT KOMPOSIT (STUDY OF COCONUT BRANCH AS COMPOSITE FIBER)

    OpenAIRE

    Seno Darmanto; Windu Sediono; Bambang Setyoko; Murni Murni

    2012-01-01

    Research is done to analyze coconut branch fiber as car body composite. Analyzing is based onmaterial, composition, and strength of material. Research was done in laboratory. Coconut branchfiber is obtained by natural drying process and cutting to become fiber with ±0,5 mm of length.Reinforcement and binder is determined polyester resin. Coir (coconut fiber) have 1.15 kg/m3 ofdensity, 1.15 MPa of strength dan modulus elastisitas 4 – 6 GPa. And based on specimen and studyof litera...

  6. Fully probabilistic design of hierarchical Bayesian models

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Quinn, A.; Kárný, Miroslav; Guy, Tatiana Valentine

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 369, č. 1 (2016), s. 532-547 ISSN 0020-0255 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-13502S Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Fully probabilistic design * Ideal distribution * Minimum cross-entropy principle * Bayesian conditioning * Kullback-Leibler divergence * Bayesian nonparametric modelling Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 4.832, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2016/AS/karny-0463052.pdf

  7. Flood quantile estimation at ungauged sites by Bayesian networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mediero, L.; Santillán, D.; Garrote, L.

    2012-04-01

    Estimating flood quantiles at a site for which no observed measurements are available is essential for water resources planning and management. Ungauged sites have no observations about the magnitude of floods, but some site and basin characteristics are known. The most common technique used is the multiple regression analysis, which relates physical and climatic basin characteristic to flood quantiles. Regression equations are fitted from flood frequency data and basin characteristics at gauged sites. Regression equations are a rigid technique that assumes linear relationships between variables and cannot take the measurement errors into account. In addition, the prediction intervals are estimated in a very simplistic way from the variance of the residuals in the estimated model. Bayesian networks are a probabilistic computational structure taken from the field of Artificial Intelligence, which have been widely and successfully applied to many scientific fields like medicine and informatics, but application to the field of hydrology is recent. Bayesian networks infer the joint probability distribution of several related variables from observations through nodes, which represent random variables, and links, which represent causal dependencies between them. A Bayesian network is more flexible than regression equations, as they capture non-linear relationships between variables. In addition, the probabilistic nature of Bayesian networks allows taking the different sources of estimation uncertainty into account, as they give a probability distribution as result. A homogeneous region in the Tagus Basin was selected as case study. A regression equation was fitted taking the basin area, the annual maximum 24-hour rainfall for a given recurrence interval and the mean height as explanatory variables. Flood quantiles at ungauged sites were estimated by Bayesian networks. Bayesian networks need to be learnt from a huge enough data set. As observational data are reduced, a

  8. Characterising the large coherence length at diamond’s beamline I13L

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wagner, U. H., E-mail: ulrich.wagner@diamond.ac.uk; Parsons, A. [Diamond Light Source Ltd, Didcot, UK, OX11 0DE (United Kingdom); Rahomaki, J.; Vogt, U. [KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden, SE-100 44 (Sweden); Rau, C. [Diamond Light Source Ltd, Didcot, UK, OX11 0DE (United Kingdom); Northwestern University, Chicago, IL 60611-3008 (United States)

    2016-07-27

    I13 is a 250 m long hard x-ray beamline (6 keV to 35 keV) at the Diamond Light Source. The beamline comprises of two independent experimental endstations: one for imaging in direct space using x-ray microscopy and one for imaging in reciprocal space using coherent diffraction based imaging techniques [1]. An outstanding feature of the coherence branch, due to its length and a new generation of ultra-stable beamline instrumentation [2], is its capability of delivering a very large coherence length well beyond 200 μm, providing opportunities for unique x-ray optical experiments. In this paper we discuss the challenges of measuring a large coherence length and present quantitative measurement based on analyzing diffraction patterns from a boron fiber [3]. We also discuss the limitations of this classical method in respect to detector performance, very short and long coherence lengths. Furthermore we demonstrate how a Ronchi grating setup [4] can be used to quickly establish if the beam is coherent over a large area.

  9. Characterising the large coherence length at diamond’s beamline I13L

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wagner, U. H.; Parsons, A.; Rahomaki, J.; Vogt, U.; Rau, C.

    2016-01-01

    I13 is a 250 m long hard x-ray beamline (6 keV to 35 keV) at the Diamond Light Source. The beamline comprises of two independent experimental endstations: one for imaging in direct space using x-ray microscopy and one for imaging in reciprocal space using coherent diffraction based imaging techniques [1]. An outstanding feature of the coherence branch, due to its length and a new generation of ultra-stable beamline instrumentation [2], is its capability of delivering a very large coherence length well beyond 200 μm, providing opportunities for unique x-ray optical experiments. In this paper we discuss the challenges of measuring a large coherence length and present quantitative measurement based on analyzing diffraction patterns from a boron fiber [3]. We also discuss the limitations of this classical method in respect to detector performance, very short and long coherence lengths. Furthermore we demonstrate how a Ronchi grating setup [4] can be used to quickly establish if the beam is coherent over a large area.

  10. Bayesian estimation inherent in a Mexican-hat-type neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takiyama, Ken

    2016-05-01

    Brain functions, such as perception, motor control and learning, and decision making, have been explained based on a Bayesian framework, i.e., to decrease the effects of noise inherent in the human nervous system or external environment, our brain integrates sensory and a priori information in a Bayesian optimal manner. However, it remains unclear how Bayesian computations are implemented in the brain. Herein, I address this issue by analyzing a Mexican-hat-type neural network, which was used as a model of the visual cortex, motor cortex, and prefrontal cortex. I analytically demonstrate that the dynamics of an order parameter in the model corresponds exactly to a variational inference of a linear Gaussian state-space model, a Bayesian estimation, when the strength of recurrent synaptic connectivity is appropriately stronger than that of an external stimulus, a plausible condition in the brain. This exact correspondence can reveal the relationship between the parameters in the Bayesian estimation and those in the neural network, providing insight for understanding brain functions.

  11. Nonparametric Bayesian Modeling of Complex Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmidt, Mikkel Nørgaard; Mørup, Morten

    2013-01-01

    an infinite mixture model as running example, we go through the steps of deriving the model as an infinite limit of a finite parametric model, inferring the model parameters by Markov chain Monte Carlo, and checking the model?s fit and predictive performance. We explain how advanced nonparametric models......Modeling structure in complex networks using Bayesian nonparametrics makes it possible to specify flexible model structures and infer the adequate model complexity from the observed data. This article provides a gentle introduction to nonparametric Bayesian modeling of complex networks: Using...

  12. The efficiency of bank branches

    OpenAIRE

    Omid Takbiri; Mohammad Mohammadi; Bahman Naderi

    2015-01-01

    Banking industry has significant contribution in development of economies of developing countries. Most banks execute their operations through different branches. Therefore it is important to measure the relative efficiencies of these branches. Data envelopment analysis (DEA) is one of the most useful tools in measuring banks’ performance. The present paper aims to extract ranking pattern of banks based on performance evaluation using DEA analysis. In the present research, 120 bank branches o...

  13. Prospects for measuring the branching ratio of the rare B{sup 0}{sub s}{yields}{mu}{sup +}{mu}{sup -} decay with the ATLAS experiment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sipica, Valentin

    2011-09-15

    The Large Hadron Collider (LHC) located at the CERN laboratory in Geneva provides p-p collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of {radical}(s)=7 TeV. The study of the rare B{sup 0}{sub s}{yields}{mu}{sup +}{mu}{sup -} decay is among the research topics of ATLAS, one of the main experiments at the LHC. This decay is highly suppressed in the Standard Model of particle physics and may give an indirect evidence for New Physics models. This PhD thesis investigates prospects for measuring the branching ratio of the B{sup 0}{sub s}{yields}{mu}{sup +}{mu}{sup -} decay with the ATLAS experiment. The analysis is based on Monte Carlo data, with p-p collisions generated at a centre-of-mass energy of {radical}(s)=10 TeV. The strategy employed is to calculate the B{sup 0}{sub s}{yields}{mu}{sup +}{mu}{sup -} branching ratio relative to the branching ratio of the B{sup +}{yields} J/{psi}({mu}{sup +}{mu}{sup -})K{sup +} decay. The dominant background channel is the b anti b{yields}{mu}{sup +}{mu}{sup -}X combinatorial background. True B{sup 0}{sub s}{yields}{mu}{sup +}{mu}{sup -} decay candidates are separated from the much larger amount of combinatorial background events using several discriminating quantities. Upper limits on the B{sup 0}{sub s} {yields} {mu}{sup +}{mu}{sup -} branching ratio are computed using a Bayesian and a frequentist method. The expected precision of the branching ratio measurement is estimated for different values of the integrated luminosity. An expected upper limit on the branching ratio is computed to BR(B{sup 0}{sub s}{yields}{mu}{sup +}{mu}{sup -})<3.8 x 10{sup -8} at a 95% confidence level for 1 fb{sup -1}. The precision of the ATLAS measurement of the branching ratio will reach a level compatible with the best current measurements with about 2-5 fb{sup -1} of data.

  14. Comprehension and computation in Bayesian problem solving

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eric D. Johnson

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Humans have long been characterized as poor probabilistic reasoners when presented with explicit numerical information. Bayesian word problems provide a well-known example of this, where even highly educated and cognitively skilled individuals fail to adhere to mathematical norms. It is widely agreed that natural frequencies can facilitate Bayesian reasoning relative to normalized formats (e.g. probabilities, percentages, both by clarifying logical set-subset relations and by simplifying numerical calculations. Nevertheless, between-study performance on transparent Bayesian problems varies widely, and generally remains rather unimpressive. We suggest there has been an over-focus on this representational facilitator (i.e. transparent problem structures at the expense of the specific logical and numerical processing requirements and the corresponding individual abilities and skills necessary for providing Bayesian-like output given specific verbal and numerical input. We further suggest that understanding this task-individual pair could benefit from considerations from the literature on mathematical cognition, which emphasizes text comprehension and problem solving, along with contributions of online executive working memory, metacognitive regulation, and relevant stored knowledge and skills. We conclude by offering avenues for future research aimed at identifying the stages in problem solving at which correct versus incorrect reasoners depart, and how individual difference might influence this time point.

  15. Being Bayesian in a quantum world

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fuchs, C.

    2005-01-01

    Full text: To be a Bayesian about probability theory is to accept that probabilities represent subjective degrees of belief and nothing more. This is in distinction to the idea that probabilities represent long-term frequencies or objective propensities. But, how can a subjective account of probabilities coexist with the existence of quantum mechanics? To accept quantum mechanics is to accept the calculational apparatus of quantum states and the Born rule for determining probabilities in a quantum measurement. If there ever were a place for probabilities to be objective, it ought to be here. This raises the question of whether Bayesianism and quantum mechanics are compatible at all. For the Bayesian, it only suggests that we should rethink what quantum mechanics is about. Is it 'law of nature' or really more 'law of thought'? From transistors to lasers, the evidence is in that we live in a quantum world. One could infer from this that all the elements in the quantum formalism necessarily mirror nature itself: wave functions are so successful as calculational tools precisely because they represent elements of reality. A more Bayesian-like perspective is that if wave functions generate probabilities, then they too must be Bayesian degrees of belief, with all that such a radical idea entails. In particular, quantum probabilities have no firmer hold on reality than the word 'belief' in 'degrees of belief' already indicates. From this perspective, the only sense in which the quantum formalism mirrors nature is through the constraints it places on gambling agents who would like to better navigate through world. One might think that this is thin information, but it is not insubstantial. To the extent that an agent should use quantum mechanics for his uncertainty accounting rather than some other theory tells us something about the world itself - i.e., the world independent of the agent and his particular beliefs at any moment. In this talk, I will try to shore up these

  16. Critical evaluation of branch polarity and apical dominance as dictators of colony astogeny in a branching coral.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lee Shaish

    Full Text Available The high morphological resemblance between branching corals and trees, can lead to comparative studies on pattern formation traits, best exemplified in plants and in some cnidarians. Here, 81 branches of similar size of the hermatypic coral Stylophora pistillata were lopped of three different genets, their skeletons marked with alizarin red-S, and divided haphazardly into three morphometric treatment groups: (I upright position; (II horizontal position, intact tip; and (III horizontal position, cut tip. After 1 y of in-situ growth, the 45 surviving ramets were brought to the laboratory, their tissues removed and their architectures analyzed by 22 morphological parameters (MPs. We found that within 1 y, isolated branches developed into small coral colonies by growing new branches from all branch termini, in all directions. No architectural dissimilarity was assigned among the three studied genets of treatment I colonies. However, a major architectural disparity between treatment I colonies and colonies of treatments II and III was documented as the development of mirror structures from both sides of treatments II and III settings as compared to tip-borne architectures in treatment I colonies. We did not observe apical dominance since fragments grew equally from all branch sides without documented dominant polarity along branch axis. In treatment II colonies, no MP for new branches originating either from tips or from branch bases differed significantly. In treatment III colonies, growth from the cut tip areas was significantly lower compared to the base, again, suggesting lack of apical dominance in this species. Changes in branch polarity revealed genet associated plasticity, which in one of the studied genets, led to enhanced growth. Different genets exhibited canalization flexibility of growth patterns towards either lateral growth, or branch axis extension (skeletal weight and not porosity was measured. This study revealed that colony

  17. Inaccurate Dental Charting in an Audit of 1128 General Dental Practice Records.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Nathan L; Jephcote, Victoria E L

    2017-03-01

    Fourteen dentists at different practices in the UK assessed the dental charts of 1128 patients who were new to the dentist but not new to the practice; 44% of the dental charts were found to be inaccurate. Inaccuracy of the individual practice-based charts ranged between 16% for the best performing practices to 83% for the worst: 5% of dental charts had too many teeth charted and 5% had too few teeth charted; 13% of charts had missed amalgam restorations and 18% had missed tooth-coloured restorations; 5% of charts had amalgam restorations recorded but with the surfaces incorrect (eg an MO restoration charted but a DO restoration actually present); 9% of charts had tooth-coloured restoration surfaces incorrectly recorded. For 7.5% of charts, amalgams were charted but not actually present. Other inaccuracies were also noted. The authors reinforce the requirements of the GDC, the advice of defence organizations, and the forensic importance of accurate dental charts. Clinical relevance: Dental charting forms part of the patient’s dental records, and the GDC requires dentists to maintain complete and accurate dental records.

  18. Impact of Sliding Window Length in Indoor Human Motion Modes and Pose Pattern Recognition Based on Smartphone Sensors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gaojing Wang

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Human activity recognition (HAR is essential for understanding people’s habits and behaviors, providing an important data source for precise marketing and research in psychology and sociology. Different approaches have been proposed and applied to HAR. Data segmentation using a sliding window is a basic step during the HAR procedure, wherein the window length directly affects recognition performance. However, the window length is generally randomly selected without systematic study. In this study, we examined the impact of window length on smartphone sensor-based human motion and pose pattern recognition. With data collected from smartphone sensors, we tested a range of window lengths on five popular machine-learning methods: decision tree, support vector machine, K-nearest neighbor, Gaussian naïve Bayesian, and adaptive boosting. From the results, we provide recommendations for choosing the appropriate window length. Results corroborate that the influence of window length on the recognition of motion modes is significant but largely limited to pose pattern recognition. For motion mode recognition, a window length between 2.5–3.5 s can provide an optimal tradeoff between recognition performance and speed. Adaptive boosting outperformed the other methods. For pose pattern recognition, 0.5 s was enough to obtain a satisfactory result. In addition, all of the tested methods performed well.

  19. Bayesian approach for the reliability assessment of corroded interdependent pipe networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ait Mokhtar, El Hassene; Chateauneuf, Alaa; Laggoune, Radouane

    2016-01-01

    Pipelines under corrosion are subject to various environment conditions, and consequently it becomes difficult to build realistic corrosion models. In the present work, a Bayesian methodology is proposed to allow for updating the corrosion model parameters according to the evolution of environmental conditions. For reliability assessment of dependent structures, Bayesian networks are used to provide interesting qualitative and quantitative description of the information in the system. The qualitative contribution lies in the modeling of complex system, composed by dependent pipelines, as a Bayesian network. The quantitative one lies in the evaluation of the dependencies between pipelines by the use of a new method for the generation of conditional probability tables. The effectiveness of Bayesian updating is illustrated through an application where the new reliability of degraded (corroded) pipe networks is assessed. - Highlights: • A methodology for Bayesian network modeling of pipe networks is proposed. • Bayesian approach based on Metropolis - Hastings algorithm is conducted for corrosion model updating. • The reliability of corroded pipe network is assessed by considering the interdependencies between the pipelines.

  20. Bayesian target tracking based on particle filter

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2005-01-01

    For being able to deal with the nonlinear or non-Gaussian problems, particle filters have been studied by many researchers. Based on particle filter, the extended Kalman filter (EKF) proposal function is applied to Bayesian target tracking. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, the resampling step, etc novel techniques are also introduced into Bayesian target tracking. And the simulation results confirm the improved particle filter with these techniques outperforms the basic one.

  1. Noncausal Bayesian Vector Autoregression

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lanne, Markku; Luoto, Jani

    We propose a Bayesian inferential procedure for the noncausal vector autoregressive (VAR) model that is capable of capturing nonlinearities and incorporating effects of missing variables. In particular, we devise a fast and reliable posterior simulator that yields the predictive distribution...

  2. [Branches of the National Institute of Hygiene].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gromulska, Marta

    2008-01-01

    National Epidemiological Institute (National Institute of Hygiene, from 7th September 1923) was established in 1918 in Warsaw and acted at national level. Its actions in the field of diseases combat were supported by bacteriological stations and vaccine production in voivodeship cities, which were taken charge of by the state, and names "National Epidemiological Institutes". According to the ministers resolution from 6th July 1921,Epidemiological Institutes were merged to National Central Epidemiological Institutes (PZH), the epidemiological institutes outside Warsaw were named branches, which were to be located in every voivodeship city, according to the initial organizational resolutions. There were country branches of NCEI in: Cracow, Lwów, Lódź, Toruń, Lublin, and Wilno in the period 1919-1923. New branches in Poznań (1925), Gdynia(1934), Katowice (Voivodeship Institute of Hygiene (1936), Luck (1937), Stanisławów (1937), Kielce(1938), and Brześć/Bug (Municipal Station acting as branch of National Central Epidemiological Institute. Branches were subordinated to NCEI-PZH) in Warsaw where action plans and unified research and diagnostic method were established and annual meeting of the country branches managers took place. All branches cooperated with hospitals, national health services, district general practitioners and administration structure in control of infectious diseases. In 1938, the post of branch inspector was established, the first of whom was Feliks Przesmycki PhD. Branches cooperated also with University of Cracow, University of Lwów and University of Wilno. In 1935, National Institutes of Food Research was incorporated in PZH, Water Department was established, and these areas of activity began to develop in the branches accordingly. In 1938 there were 13 branches of PZH, and each had three divisions: bacteriological, food research and water research. Three branches in Cracow, Kielce and Lublin worked during World War II under German

  3. Multiple measures could alleviate long-branch attraction in phylogenomic reconstruction of Cupressoideae (Cupressaceae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qu, Xiao-Jian; Jin, Jian-Jun; Chaw, Shu-Miaw; Li, De-Zhu; Yi, Ting-Shuang

    2017-01-25

    Long-branch attraction (LBA) is a major obstacle in phylogenetic reconstruction. The phylogenetic relationships among Juniperus (J), Cupressus (C) and the Hesperocyparis-Callitropsis-Xanthocyparis (HCX) subclades of Cupressoideae are controversial. Our initial analyses of plastid protein-coding gene matrix revealed both J and C with much longer stem branches than those of HCX, so their sister relationships may be attributed to LBA. We used multiple measures including data filtering and modifying, evolutionary model selection and coalescent phylogenetic reconstruction to alleviate the LBA artifact. Data filtering by strictly removing unreliable aligned regions and removing substitution saturation genes and rapidly evolving sites could significantly reduce branch lengths of subclades J and C and recovered a relationship of J (C, HCX). In addition, using coalescent phylogenetic reconstruction could elucidate the LBA artifact and recovered J (C, HCX). However, some valid methods for other taxa were inefficient in alleviating the LBA artifact in J-C-HCX. Different strategies should be carefully considered and justified to reduce LBA in phylogenetic reconstruction of different groups. Three subclades of J-C-HCX were estimated to have experienced ancient rapid divergence within a short period, which could be another major obstacle in resolving relationships. Furthermore, our plastid phylogenomic analyses fully resolved the intergeneric relationships of Cupressoideae.

  4. Bayesian statistical inference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruno De Finetti

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available This work was translated into English and published in the volume: Bruno De Finetti, Induction and Probability, Biblioteca di Statistica, eds. P. Monari, D. Cocchi, Clueb, Bologna, 1993.Bayesian statistical Inference is one of the last fundamental philosophical papers in which we can find the essential De Finetti's approach to the statistical inference.

  5. Bayesian Exponential Smoothing.

    OpenAIRE

    Forbes, C.S.; Snyder, R.D.; Shami, R.S.

    2000-01-01

    In this paper, a Bayesian version of the exponential smoothing method of forecasting is proposed. The approach is based on a state space model containing only a single source of error for each time interval. This model allows us to improve current practices surrounding exponential smoothing by providing both point predictions and measures of the uncertainty surrounding them.

  6. Power in Bayesian Mediation Analysis for Small Sample Research

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Miočević, M.; MacKinnon, David; Levy, Roy

    2017-01-01

    Bayesian methods have the potential for increasing power in mediation analysis (Koopman, Howe, Hollenbeck, & Sin, 2015; Yuan & MacKinnon, 2009). This article compares the power of Bayesian credibility intervals for the mediated effect to the power of normal theory, distribution of the product,

  7. Bayesian analyses of seasonal runoff forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krzysztofowicz, R.; Reese, S.

    1991-12-01

    Forecasts of seasonal snowmelt runoff volume provide indispensable information for rational decision making by water project operators, irrigation district managers, and farmers in the western United States. Bayesian statistical models and communication frames have been researched in order to enhance the forecast information disseminated to the users, and to characterize forecast skill from the decision maker's point of view. Four products are presented: (i) a Bayesian Processor of Forecasts, which provides a statistical filter for calibrating the forecasts, and a procedure for estimating the posterior probability distribution of the seasonal runoff; (ii) the Bayesian Correlation Score, a new measure of forecast skill, which is related monotonically to the ex ante economic value of forecasts for decision making; (iii) a statistical predictor of monthly cumulative runoffs within the snowmelt season, conditional on the total seasonal runoff forecast; and (iv) a framing of the forecast message that conveys the uncertainty associated with the forecast estimates to the users. All analyses are illustrated with numerical examples of forecasts for six gauging stations from the period 1971 1988.

  8. Bayesian methodology for reliability model acceptance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Ruoxue; Mahadevan, Sankaran

    2003-01-01

    This paper develops a methodology to assess the reliability computation model validity using the concept of Bayesian hypothesis testing, by comparing the model prediction and experimental observation, when there is only one computational model available to evaluate system behavior. Time-independent and time-dependent problems are investigated, with consideration of both cases: with and without statistical uncertainty in the model. The case of time-independent failure probability prediction with no statistical uncertainty is a straightforward application of Bayesian hypothesis testing. However, for the life prediction (time-dependent reliability) problem, a new methodology is developed in this paper to make the same Bayesian hypothesis testing concept applicable. With the existence of statistical uncertainty in the model, in addition to the application of a predictor estimator of the Bayes factor, the uncertainty in the Bayes factor is explicitly quantified through treating it as a random variable and calculating the probability that it exceeds a specified value. The developed method provides a rational criterion to decision-makers for the acceptance or rejection of the computational model

  9. Structure of FabH and factors affecting the distribution of branched fatty acids in Micrococcus luteus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereira, Jose H; Goh, Ee-Been; Keasling, Jay D; Beller, Harry R; Adams, Paul D

    2012-10-01

    Micrococcus luteus is a Gram-positive bacterium that produces iso- and anteiso-branched alkenes by the head-to-head condensation of fatty-acid thioesters [coenzyme A (CoA) or acyl carrier protein (ACP)]; this activity is of interest for the production of advanced biofuels. In an effort to better understand the control of the formation of branched fatty acids in M. luteus, the structure of FabH (MlFabH) was determined. FabH, or β-ketoacyl-ACP synthase III, catalyzes the initial step of fatty-acid biosynthesis: the condensation of malonyl-ACP with an acyl-CoA. Analysis of the MlFabH structure provides insights into its substrate selectivity with regard to length and branching of the acyl-CoA. The most structurally divergent region of FabH is the L9 loop region located at the dimer interface, which is involved in the formation of the acyl-binding channel and thus limits the substrate-channel size. The residue Phe336, which is positioned near the catalytic triad, appears to play a major role in branched-substrate selectivity. In addition to structural studies of MlFabH, transcriptional studies of M. luteus were also performed, focusing on the increase in the ratio of anteiso:iso-branched alkenes that was observed during the transition from early to late stationary phase. Gene-expression microarray analysis identified two genes involved in leucine and isoleucine metabolism that may explain this transition.

  10. Wheat root length and not branching is altered in the presence of neighbours, including blackgrass.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jessica A Finch

    Full Text Available The effect of neighbouring plants on crop root system architecture may directly interfere with water and nutrient acquisition, yet this important and interesting aspect of competition remains poorly understood. Here, the effect of the weed blackgrass (Alopecurus myosuroides Huds. on wheat (Triticum aestivum L. roots was tested, since a low density of this species (25 plants m-2 can lead to a 10% decrease in wheat yield and herbicide resistance is problematic. We used a simplified growth system based on gelled medium, to grow wheat alongside a neighbour, either another wheat plant, a blackgrass or Brachypodium dystachion individual (a model grass. A detailed analysis of wheat seminal root system architecture showed that the presence of a neighbour principally affected the root length, rather than number or diameter under a high nutrient regime. In particular, the length of first order lateral roots decreased significantly in the presence of blackgrass and Brachypodium. However, this effect was not noted when wheat plants were grown in low nutrient conditions. This suggests that wheat may be less sensitive to the presence of blackgrass when grown in low nutrient conditions. In addition, nutrient availability to the neighbour did not modulate the neighbour effect on wheat root architecture.

  11. Wheat root length and not branching is altered in the presence of neighbours, including blackgrass

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finch, Jessica A.; Guillaume, Gaëtan; French, Stephanie A.; Colaço, Renato D. D. R.; Davies, Julia M.

    2017-01-01

    The effect of neighbouring plants on crop root system architecture may directly interfere with water and nutrient acquisition, yet this important and interesting aspect of competition remains poorly understood. Here, the effect of the weed blackgrass (Alopecurus myosuroides Huds.) on wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) roots was tested, since a low density of this species (25 plants m-2) can lead to a 10% decrease in wheat yield and herbicide resistance is problematic. We used a simplified growth system based on gelled medium, to grow wheat alongside a neighbour, either another wheat plant, a blackgrass or Brachypodium dystachion individual (a model grass). A detailed analysis of wheat seminal root system architecture showed that the presence of a neighbour principally affected the root length, rather than number or diameter under a high nutrient regime. In particular, the length of first order lateral roots decreased significantly in the presence of blackgrass and Brachypodium. However, this effect was not noted when wheat plants were grown in low nutrient conditions. This suggests that wheat may be less sensitive to the presence of blackgrass when grown in low nutrient conditions. In addition, nutrient availability to the neighbour did not modulate the neighbour effect on wheat root architecture. PMID:28542446

  12. Development and comparison of Bayesian modularization method in uncertainty assessment of hydrological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, L.; Xu, C.-Y.; Engeland, K.

    2012-04-01

    With respect to model calibration, parameter estimation and analysis of uncertainty sources, different approaches have been used in hydrological models. Bayesian method is one of the most widely used methods for uncertainty assessment of hydrological models, which incorporates different sources of information into a single analysis through Bayesian theorem. However, none of these applications can well treat the uncertainty in extreme flows of hydrological models' simulations. This study proposes a Bayesian modularization method approach in uncertainty assessment of conceptual hydrological models by considering the extreme flows. It includes a comprehensive comparison and evaluation of uncertainty assessments by a new Bayesian modularization method approach and traditional Bayesian models using the Metropolis Hasting (MH) algorithm with the daily hydrological model WASMOD. Three likelihood functions are used in combination with traditional Bayesian: the AR (1) plus Normal and time period independent model (Model 1), the AR (1) plus Normal and time period dependent model (Model 2) and the AR (1) plus multi-normal model (Model 3). The results reveal that (1) the simulations derived from Bayesian modularization method are more accurate with the highest Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency value, and (2) the Bayesian modularization method performs best in uncertainty estimates of entire flows and in terms of the application and computational efficiency. The study thus introduces a new approach for reducing the extreme flow's effect on the discharge uncertainty assessment of hydrological models via Bayesian. Keywords: extreme flow, uncertainty assessment, Bayesian modularization, hydrological model, WASMOD

  13. Applications of Bayesian decision theory to intelligent tutoring systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vos, Hendrik J.

    1994-01-01

    Some applications of Bayesian decision theory to intelligent tutoring systems are considered. How the problem of adapting the appropriate amount of instruction to the changing nature of a student's capabilities during the learning process can be situated in the general framework of Bayesian decision

  14. Spatial and spatio-temporal bayesian models with R - INLA

    CERN Document Server

    Blangiardo, Marta

    2015-01-01

    Dedication iiiPreface ix1 Introduction 11.1 Why spatial and spatio-temporal statistics? 11.2 Why do we use Bayesian methods for modelling spatial and spatio-temporal structures? 21.3 Why INLA? 31.4 Datasets 32 Introduction to 212.1 The language 212.2 objects 222.3 Data and session management 342.4 Packages 352.5 Programming in 362.6 Basic statistical analysis with 393 Introduction to Bayesian Methods 533.1 Bayesian Philosophy 533.2 Basic Probability Elements 573.3 Bayes Theorem 623.4 Prior and Posterior Distributions 643.5 Working with the Posterior Distribution 663.6 Choosing the Prior Distr

  15. A bayesian approach to classification criteria for spectacled eiders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, B.L.; Wade, P.R.; Stehn, R.A.; Cochrane, J.F.

    1996-01-01

    To facilitate decisions to classify species according to risk of extinction, we used Bayesian methods to analyze trend data for the Spectacled Eider, an arctic sea duck. Trend data from three independent surveys of the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta were analyzed individually and in combination to yield posterior distributions for population growth rates. We used classification criteria developed by the recovery team for Spectacled Eiders that seek to equalize errors of under- or overprotecting the species. We conducted both a Bayesian decision analysis and a frequentist (classical statistical inference) decision analysis. Bayesian decision analyses are computationally easier, yield basically the same results, and yield results that are easier to explain to nonscientists. With the exception of the aerial survey analysis of the 10 most recent years, both Bayesian and frequentist methods indicated that an endangered classification is warranted. The discrepancy between surveys warrants further research. Although the trend data are abundance indices, we used a preliminary estimate of absolute abundance to demonstrate how to calculate extinction distributions using the joint probability distributions for population growth rate and variance in growth rate generated by the Bayesian analysis. Recent apparent increases in abundance highlight the need for models that apply to declining and then recovering species.

  16. Bayesian Modeling of a Human MMORPG Player

    Science.gov (United States)

    Synnaeve, Gabriel; Bessière, Pierre

    2011-03-01

    This paper describes an application of Bayesian programming to the control of an autonomous avatar in a multiplayer role-playing game (the example is based on World of Warcraft). We model a particular task, which consists of choosing what to do and to select which target in a situation where allies and foes are present. We explain the model in Bayesian programming and show how we could learn the conditional probabilities from data gathered during human-played sessions.

  17. MCMC for parameters estimation by bayesian approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ait Saadi, H.; Ykhlef, F.; Guessoum, A.

    2011-01-01

    This article discusses the parameter estimation for dynamic system by a Bayesian approach associated with Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods (MCMC). The MCMC methods are powerful for approximating complex integrals, simulating joint distributions, and the estimation of marginal posterior distributions, or posterior means. The MetropolisHastings algorithm has been widely used in Bayesian inference to approximate posterior densities. Calibrating the proposal distribution is one of the main issues of MCMC simulation in order to accelerate the convergence.

  18. Bayesian Methods for Radiation Detection and Dosimetry

    CERN Document Server

    Groer, Peter G

    2002-01-01

    We performed work in three areas: radiation detection, external and internal radiation dosimetry. In radiation detection we developed Bayesian techniques to estimate the net activity of high and low activity radioactive samples. These techniques have the advantage that the remaining uncertainty about the net activity is described by probability densities. Graphs of the densities show the uncertainty in pictorial form. Figure 1 below demonstrates this point. We applied stochastic processes for a method to obtain Bayesian estimates of 222Rn-daughter products from observed counting rates. In external radiation dosimetry we studied and developed Bayesian methods to estimate radiation doses to an individual with radiation induced chromosome aberrations. We analyzed chromosome aberrations after exposure to gammas and neutrons and developed a method for dose-estimation after criticality accidents. The research in internal radiation dosimetry focused on parameter estimation for compartmental models from observed comp...

  19. Bayesian log-periodic model for financial crashes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rodríguez-Caballero, Carlos Vladimir; Knapik, Oskar

    2014-01-01

    This paper introduces a Bayesian approach in econophysics literature about financial bubbles in order to estimate the most probable time for a financial crash to occur. To this end, we propose using noninformative prior distributions to obtain posterior distributions. Since these distributions...... cannot be performed analytically, we develop a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to draw from posterior distributions. We consider three Bayesian models that involve normal and Student’s t-distributions in the disturbances and an AR(1)-GARCH(1,1) structure only within the first case. In the empirical...... part of the study, we analyze a well-known example of financial bubble – the S&P 500 1987 crash – to show the usefulness of the three methods under consideration and crashes of Merval-94, Bovespa-97, IPCMX-94, Hang Seng-97 using the simplest method. The novelty of this research is that the Bayesian...

  20. Structure of FabH and factors affecting the distribution of branched fatty acids in Micrococcus luteus

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pereira, Jose H.; Goh, Ee-Been; Keasling, Jay D.; Beller, Harry R.; Adams, Paul D.

    2012-01-01

    In an effort to better understand the control of the formation of branched fatty acids in Micrococcus luteus, the structure of β-ketoacyl-ACP synthase III, which catalyzes the initial step of fatty-acid biosynthesis, has been determined. Micrococcus luteus is a Gram-positive bacterium that produces iso- and anteiso-branched alkenes by the head-to-head condensation of fatty-acid thioesters [coenzyme A (CoA) or acyl carrier protein (ACP)]; this activity is of interest for the production of advanced biofuels. In an effort to better understand the control of the formation of branched fatty acids in M. luteus, the structure of FabH (MlFabH) was determined. FabH, or β-ketoacyl-ACP synthase III, catalyzes the initial step of fatty-acid biosynthesis: the condensation of malonyl-ACP with an acyl-CoA. Analysis of the MlFabH structure provides insights into its substrate selectivity with regard to length and branching of the acyl-CoA. The most structurally divergent region of FabH is the L9 loop region located at the dimer interface, which is involved in the formation of the acyl-binding channel and thus limits the substrate-channel size. The residue Phe336, which is positioned near the catalytic triad, appears to play a major role in branched-substrate selectivity. In addition to structural studies of MlFabH, transcriptional studies of M. luteus were also performed, focusing on the increase in the ratio of anteiso:iso-branched alkenes that was observed during the transition from early to late stationary phase. Gene-expression microarray analysis identified two genes involved in leucine and isoleucine metabolism that may explain this transition

  1. Turing mechanism underlying a branching model for lung morphogenesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Hui; Sun, Mingzhu; Zhao, Xin

    2017-01-01

    The mammalian lung develops through branching morphogenesis. Two primary forms of branching, which occur in order, in the lung have been identified: tip bifurcation and side branching. However, the mechanisms of lung branching morphogenesis remain to be explored. In our previous study, a biological mechanism was presented for lung branching pattern formation through a branching model. Here, we provide a mathematical mechanism underlying the branching patterns. By decoupling the branching model, we demonstrated the existence of Turing instability. We performed Turing instability analysis to reveal the mathematical mechanism of the branching patterns. Our simulation results show that the Turing patterns underlying the branching patterns are spot patterns that exhibit high local morphogen concentration. The high local morphogen concentration induces the growth of branching. Furthermore, we found that the sparse spot patterns underlie the tip bifurcation patterns, while the dense spot patterns underlies the side branching patterns. The dispersion relation analysis shows that the Turing wavelength affects the branching structure. As the wavelength decreases, the spot patterns change from sparse to dense, the rate of tip bifurcation decreases and side branching eventually occurs instead. In the process of transformation, there may exists hybrid branching that mixes tip bifurcation and side branching. Since experimental studies have reported that branching mode switching from side branching to tip bifurcation in the lung is under genetic control, our simulation results suggest that genes control the switch of the branching mode by regulating the Turing wavelength. Our results provide a novel insight into and understanding of the formation of branching patterns in the lung and other biological systems.

  2. Radiative kaon capture on deuterium and the Λn scattering lengths

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gall, K.P.; Booth, E.C.; Fickinger, W.J.; Hasinoff, M.D.; Hessey, N.P.; Horvath, D.; Lowe, J.; McIntyre, E.K.; Measday, D.F.; Miller, J.P.; Noble, A.J.; Roberts, B.L.; Robinson, D.K.; Sakitt, M.; Salomon, M.; Whitehouse, D.A.

    1990-01-01

    The photon spectrum from K - d→Λnγ at rest has been measured for the first time. We obtained the branching ratio, in the end-point region, of (1.89±0.12±0.28)x10 -3 where the first error is statistical and the second is systematic. We have found that the shape of the photon energy spectrum is consistent with the distribution calculated by Workman and Fearing with Λn scattering lengths and effective ranges predicted by the Nijmegen group

  3. BAYESIAN IMAGE RESTORATION, USING CONFIGURATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thordis Linda Thorarinsdottir

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we develop a Bayesian procedure for removing noise from images that can be viewed as noisy realisations of random sets in the plane. The procedure utilises recent advances in configuration theory for noise free random sets, where the probabilities of observing the different boundary configurations are expressed in terms of the mean normal measure of the random set. These probabilities are used as prior probabilities in a Bayesian image restoration approach. Estimation of the remaining parameters in the model is outlined for salt and pepper noise. The inference in the model is discussed in detail for 3 X 3 and 5 X 5 configurations and examples of the performance of the procedure are given.

  4. Electron energy-loss spectroscopy of branched gap plasmon resonators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Raza, Søren; Esfandyarpour, Majid; Koh, Ai Leen

    2016-01-01

    The miniaturization of integrated optical circuits below the diffraction limit for high-speed manipulation of information is one of the cornerstones in plasmonics research. By coupling to surface plasmons supported on nanostructured metallic surfaces, light can be confined to the nanoscale......, enabling the potential interface to electronic circuits. In particular, gap surface plasmons propagating in an air gap sandwiched between metal layers have shown extraordinary mode confinement with significant propagation length. In this work, we unveil the optical properties of gap surface plasmons...... in silver nanoslot structures with widths of only 25 nm. We fabricate linear, branched and cross-shaped nanoslot waveguide components, which all support resonances due to interference of counter-propagating gap plasmons. By exploiting the superior spatial resolution of a scanning transmission electron...

  5. Dynamic Crack Branching - A Photoelastic Evaluation,

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-05-01

    0.41 mPai and a 0.18 MPa, and predicted a theoretical kinking angle of 84°whichagreed well with experimentally measured angle. After crack kinking...Consistent crack branching’at KIb = 2.04 MPaI -i- and r = 1.3 mm verified this crack branching criterion. The crack branching angle predicted by--.’ DD

  6. General and Local: Averaged k-Dependence Bayesian Classifiers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Limin Wang

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The inference of a general Bayesian network has been shown to be an NP-hard problem, even for approximate solutions. Although k-dependence Bayesian (KDB classifier can construct at arbitrary points (values of k along the attribute dependence spectrum, it cannot identify the changes of interdependencies when attributes take different values. Local KDB, which learns in the framework of KDB, is proposed in this study to describe the local dependencies implicated in each test instance. Based on the analysis of functional dependencies, substitution-elimination resolution, a new type of semi-naive Bayesian operation, is proposed to substitute or eliminate generalization to achieve accurate estimation of conditional probability distribution while reducing computational complexity. The final classifier, averaged k-dependence Bayesian (AKDB classifiers, will average the output of KDB and local KDB. Experimental results on the repository of machine learning databases from the University of California Irvine (UCI showed that AKDB has significant advantages in zero-one loss and bias relative to naive Bayes (NB, tree augmented naive Bayes (TAN, Averaged one-dependence estimators (AODE, and KDB. Moreover, KDB and local KDB show mutually complementary characteristics with respect to variance.

  7. A Bayesian Model of the Memory Colour Effect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Witzel, Christoph; Olkkonen, Maria; Gegenfurtner, Karl R

    2018-01-01

    According to the memory colour effect, the colour of a colour-diagnostic object is not perceived independently of the object itself. Instead, it has been shown through an achromatic adjustment method that colour-diagnostic objects still appear slightly in their typical colour, even when they are colourimetrically grey. Bayesian models provide a promising approach to capture the effect of prior knowledge on colour perception and to link these effects to more general effects of cue integration. Here, we model memory colour effects using prior knowledge about typical colours as priors for the grey adjustments in a Bayesian model. This simple model does not involve any fitting of free parameters. The Bayesian model roughly captured the magnitude of the measured memory colour effect for photographs of objects. To some extent, the model predicted observed differences in memory colour effects across objects. The model could not account for the differences in memory colour effects across different levels of realism in the object images. The Bayesian model provides a particularly simple account of memory colour effects, capturing some of the multiple sources of variation of these effects.

  8. Bayesian model ensembling using meta-trained recurrent neural networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ambrogioni, L.; Berezutskaya, Y.; Gü ç lü , U.; Borne, E.W.P. van den; Gü ç lü tü rk, Y.; Gerven, M.A.J. van; Maris, E.G.G.

    2017-01-01

    In this paper we demonstrate that a recurrent neural network meta-trained on an ensemble of arbitrary classification tasks can be used as an approximation of the Bayes optimal classifier. This result is obtained by relying on the framework of e-free approximate Bayesian inference, where the Bayesian

  9. Neurotization of free gracilis transfer with the brachialis branch of the musculocutaneous nerve to restore finger and thumb flexion in lower trunk brachial plexus injury: an anatomical study and case report

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi Yang

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To investigate the feasibility of using free gracilis muscle transfer along with the brachialis muscle branch of the musculocutaneous nerve to restore finger and thumb flexion in lower trunk brachial plexus injury according to an anatomical study and a case report. METHODS: Thirty formalin-fixed upper extremities from 15 adult cadavers were used in this study. The distance from the point at which the brachialis muscle branch of the musculocutaneous nerve originates to the midpoint of the humeral condylar was measured, as well as the length, diameter, course and branch type of the brachialis muscle branch of the musculocutaneous nerve. An 18-year-old male who sustained an injury to the left brachial plexus underwent free gracilis transfer using the brachialis muscle branch of the musculocutaneous nerve as the donor nerve to restore finger and thumb flexion. Elbow flexion power and hand grip strength were recorded according to British Medical Research Council standards. Postoperative measures of the total active motion of the fingers were obtained monthly. RESULTS: The mean length and diameter of the brachialis muscle branch of the musculocutaneous nerve were 52.66±6.45 and 1.39±0.09 mm, respectively, and three branching types were observed. For the patient, the first gracilis contraction occurred during the 4th month. A noticeable improvement was observed in digit flexion one year later; the muscle power was M4, and the total active motion of the fingers was 209°. CONCLUSIONS: Repairing injury to the lower trunk of the brachial plexus by transferring the brachialis muscle branch of the musculocutaneous nerve to the anterior branch of the obturator nerve using a tension-free direct suture is technically feasible, and the clinical outcome was satisfactory in a single surgical patient.

  10. A Bayesian alternative for multi-objective ecohydrological model specification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Yating; Marshall, Lucy; Sharma, Ashish; Ajami, Hoori

    2018-01-01

    Recent studies have identified the importance of vegetation processes in terrestrial hydrologic systems. Process-based ecohydrological models combine hydrological, physical, biochemical and ecological processes of the catchments, and as such are generally more complex and parametric than conceptual hydrological models. Thus, appropriate calibration objectives and model uncertainty analysis are essential for ecohydrological modeling. In recent years, Bayesian inference has become one of the most popular tools for quantifying the uncertainties in hydrological modeling with the development of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques. The Bayesian approach offers an appealing alternative to traditional multi-objective hydrologic model calibrations by defining proper prior distributions that can be considered analogous to the ad-hoc weighting often prescribed in multi-objective calibration. Our study aims to develop appropriate prior distributions and likelihood functions that minimize the model uncertainties and bias within a Bayesian ecohydrological modeling framework based on a traditional Pareto-based model calibration technique. In our study, a Pareto-based multi-objective optimization and a formal Bayesian framework are implemented in a conceptual ecohydrological model that combines a hydrological model (HYMOD) and a modified Bucket Grassland Model (BGM). Simulations focused on one objective (streamflow/LAI) and multiple objectives (streamflow and LAI) with different emphasis defined via the prior distribution of the model error parameters. Results show more reliable outputs for both predicted streamflow and LAI using Bayesian multi-objective calibration with specified prior distributions for error parameters based on results from the Pareto front in the ecohydrological modeling. The methodology implemented here provides insight into the usefulness of multiobjective Bayesian calibration for ecohydrologic systems and the importance of appropriate prior

  11. BAYESIAN INFERENCE OF CMB GRAVITATIONAL LENSING

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderes, Ethan [Department of Statistics, University of California, Davis, CA 95616 (United States); Wandelt, Benjamin D.; Lavaux, Guilhem [Sorbonne Universités, UPMC Univ Paris 06 and CNRS, UMR7095, Institut d’Astrophysique de Paris, F-75014, Paris (France)

    2015-08-01

    The Planck satellite, along with several ground-based telescopes, has mapped the cosmic microwave background (CMB) at sufficient resolution and signal-to-noise so as to allow a detection of the subtle distortions due to the gravitational influence of the intervening matter distribution. A natural modeling approach is to write a Bayesian hierarchical model for the lensed CMB in terms of the unlensed CMB and the lensing potential. So far there has been no feasible algorithm for inferring the posterior distribution of the lensing potential from the lensed CMB map. We propose a solution that allows efficient Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling from the joint posterior of the lensing potential and the unlensed CMB map using the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo technique. The main conceptual step in the solution is a re-parameterization of CMB lensing in terms of the lensed CMB and the “inverse lensing” potential. We demonstrate a fast implementation on simulated data, including noise and a sky cut, that uses a further acceleration based on a very mild approximation of the inverse lensing potential. We find that the resulting Markov Chain has short correlation lengths and excellent convergence properties, making it promising for applications to high-resolution CMB data sets in the future.

  12. Bayesian molecular dating: opening up the black box.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bromham, Lindell; Duchêne, Sebastián; Hua, Xia; Ritchie, Andrew M; Duchêne, David A; Ho, Simon Y W

    2018-05-01

    Molecular dating analyses allow evolutionary timescales to be estimated from genetic data, offering an unprecedented capacity for investigating the evolutionary past of all species. These methods require us to make assumptions about the relationship between genetic change and evolutionary time, often referred to as a 'molecular clock'. Although initially regarded with scepticism, molecular dating has now been adopted in many areas of biology. This broad uptake has been due partly to the development of Bayesian methods that allow complex aspects of molecular evolution, such as variation in rates of change across lineages, to be taken into account. But in order to do this, Bayesian dating methods rely on a range of assumptions about the evolutionary process, which vary in their degree of biological realism and empirical support. These assumptions can have substantial impacts on the estimates produced by molecular dating analyses. The aim of this review is to open the 'black box' of Bayesian molecular dating and have a look at the machinery inside. We explain the components of these dating methods, the important decisions that researchers must make in their analyses, and the factors that need to be considered when interpreting results. We illustrate the effects that the choices of different models and priors can have on the outcome of the analysis, and suggest ways to explore these impacts. We describe some major research directions that may improve the reliability of Bayesian dating. The goal of our review is to help researchers to make informed choices when using Bayesian phylogenetic methods to estimate evolutionary rates and timescales. © 2017 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

  13. Bayesian logistic regression analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Erp, H.R.N.; Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M.

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we present a Bayesian logistic regression analysis. It is found that if one wishes to derive the posterior distribution of the probability of some event, then, together with the traditional Bayes Theorem and the integrating out of nuissance parameters, the Jacobian transformation is an

  14. Bayesian Independent Component Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Winther, Ole; Petersen, Kaare Brandt

    2007-01-01

    In this paper we present an empirical Bayesian framework for independent component analysis. The framework provides estimates of the sources, the mixing matrix and the noise parameters, and is flexible with respect to choice of source prior and the number of sources and sensors. Inside the engine...

  15. Particle identification in ALICE: a Bayesian approach

    CERN Document Server

    Adam, Jaroslav; Aggarwal, Madan Mohan; Aglieri Rinella, Gianluca; Agnello, Michelangelo; Agrawal, Neelima; Ahammed, Zubayer; Ahmad, Shakeel; Ahn, Sang Un; Aiola, Salvatore; Akindinov, Alexander; Alam, Sk Noor; Silva De Albuquerque, Danilo; Aleksandrov, Dmitry; Alessandro, Bruno; Alexandre, Didier; Alfaro Molina, Jose Ruben; Alici, Andrea; Alkin, Anton; Millan Almaraz, Jesus Roberto; Alme, Johan; Alt, Torsten; Altinpinar, Sedat; Altsybeev, Igor; Alves Garcia Prado, Caio; Andrei, Cristian; Andronic, Anton; Anguelov, Venelin; Anticic, Tome; Antinori, Federico; Antonioli, Pietro; Aphecetche, Laurent Bernard; Appelshaeuser, Harald; Arcelli, Silvia; Arnaldi, Roberta; Arnold, Oliver Werner; Arsene, Ionut Cristian; Arslandok, Mesut; Audurier, Benjamin; Augustinus, Andre; Averbeck, Ralf Peter; Azmi, Mohd Danish; Badala, Angela; Baek, Yong Wook; Bagnasco, Stefano; Bailhache, Raphaelle Marie; Bala, Renu; Balasubramanian, Supraja; Baldisseri, Alberto; Baral, Rama Chandra; Barbano, Anastasia Maria; Barbera, Roberto; Barile, Francesco; Barnafoldi, Gergely Gabor; Barnby, Lee Stuart; Ramillien Barret, Valerie; Bartalini, Paolo; Barth, Klaus; Bartke, Jerzy Gustaw; Bartsch, Esther; Basile, Maurizio; Bastid, Nicole; Basu, Sumit; Bathen, Bastian; Batigne, Guillaume; Batista Camejo, Arianna; Batyunya, Boris; Batzing, Paul Christoph; Bearden, Ian Gardner; Beck, Hans; Bedda, Cristina; Behera, Nirbhay Kumar; Belikov, Iouri; Bellini, Francesca; Bello Martinez, Hector; Bellwied, Rene; Belmont Iii, Ronald John; Belmont Moreno, Ernesto; Belyaev, Vladimir; Benacek, Pavel; Bencedi, Gyula; Beole, Stefania; Berceanu, Ionela; Bercuci, Alexandru; Berdnikov, Yaroslav; Berenyi, Daniel; Bertens, Redmer Alexander; Berzano, Dario; Betev, Latchezar; Bhasin, Anju; Bhat, Inayat Rasool; Bhati, Ashok Kumar; Bhattacharjee, Buddhadeb; Bhom, Jihyun; Bianchi, Livio; Bianchi, Nicola; Bianchin, Chiara; Bielcik, Jaroslav; Bielcikova, Jana; Bilandzic, Ante; Biro, Gabor; Biswas, Rathijit; Biswas, Saikat; Bjelogrlic, Sandro; Blair, Justin Thomas; Blau, Dmitry; Blume, Christoph; Bock, Friederike; Bogdanov, Alexey; Boggild, Hans; Boldizsar, Laszlo; Bombara, Marek; Book, Julian Heinz; Borel, Herve; Borissov, Alexander; Borri, Marcello; Bossu, Francesco; Botta, Elena; Bourjau, Christian; Braun-Munzinger, Peter; Bregant, Marco; Breitner, Timo Gunther; Broker, Theo Alexander; Browning, Tyler Allen; Broz, Michal; Brucken, Erik Jens; Bruna, Elena; Bruno, Giuseppe Eugenio; Budnikov, Dmitry; Buesching, Henner; Bufalino, Stefania; Buncic, Predrag; Busch, Oliver; Buthelezi, Edith Zinhle; Bashir Butt, Jamila; Buxton, Jesse Thomas; Cabala, Jan; Caffarri, Davide; Cai, Xu; Caines, Helen Louise; Calero Diaz, Liliet; Caliva, Alberto; Calvo Villar, Ernesto; Camerini, Paolo; Carena, Francesco; Carena, Wisla; Carnesecchi, Francesca; Castillo Castellanos, Javier Ernesto; Castro, Andrew John; Casula, Ester Anna Rita; Ceballos Sanchez, Cesar; Cepila, Jan; Cerello, Piergiorgio; Cerkala, Jakub; Chang, Beomsu; Chapeland, Sylvain; Chartier, Marielle; Charvet, Jean-Luc Fernand; Chattopadhyay, Subhasis; Chattopadhyay, Sukalyan; Chauvin, Alex; Chelnokov, Volodymyr; Cherney, Michael Gerard; Cheshkov, Cvetan Valeriev; Cheynis, Brigitte; Chibante Barroso, Vasco Miguel; Dobrigkeit Chinellato, David; Cho, Soyeon; Chochula, Peter; Choi, Kyungeon; Chojnacki, Marek; Choudhury, Subikash; Christakoglou, Panagiotis; Christensen, Christian Holm; Christiansen, Peter; Chujo, Tatsuya; Chung, Suh-Urk; Cicalo, Corrado; Cifarelli, Luisa; Cindolo, Federico; Cleymans, Jean Willy Andre; Colamaria, Fabio Filippo; Colella, Domenico; Collu, Alberto; Colocci, Manuel; Conesa Balbastre, Gustavo; Conesa Del Valle, Zaida; Connors, Megan Elizabeth; Contreras Nuno, Jesus Guillermo; Cormier, Thomas Michael; Corrales Morales, Yasser; Cortes Maldonado, Ismael; Cortese, Pietro; Cosentino, Mauro Rogerio; Costa, Filippo; Crochet, Philippe; Cruz Albino, Rigoberto; Cuautle Flores, Eleazar; Cunqueiro Mendez, Leticia; Dahms, Torsten; Dainese, Andrea; Danisch, Meike Charlotte; Danu, Andrea; Das, Debasish; Das, Indranil; Das, Supriya; Dash, Ajay Kumar; Dash, Sadhana; De, Sudipan; De Caro, Annalisa; De Cataldo, Giacinto; De Conti, Camila; De Cuveland, Jan; De Falco, Alessandro; De Gruttola, Daniele; De Marco, Nora; De Pasquale, Salvatore; Deisting, Alexander; Deloff, Andrzej; Denes, Ervin Sandor; Deplano, Caterina; Dhankher, Preeti; Di Bari, Domenico; Di Mauro, Antonio; Di Nezza, Pasquale; Diaz Corchero, Miguel Angel; Dietel, Thomas; Dillenseger, Pascal; Divia, Roberto; Djuvsland, Oeystein; Dobrin, Alexandru Florin; Domenicis Gimenez, Diogenes; Donigus, Benjamin; Dordic, Olja; Drozhzhova, Tatiana; Dubey, Anand Kumar; Dubla, Andrea; Ducroux, Laurent; Dupieux, Pascal; Ehlers Iii, Raymond James; Elia, Domenico; Endress, Eric; Engel, Heiko; Epple, Eliane; Erazmus, Barbara Ewa; Erdemir, Irem; Erhardt, Filip; Espagnon, Bruno; Estienne, Magali Danielle; Esumi, Shinichi; Eum, Jongsik; Evans, David; Evdokimov, Sergey; Eyyubova, Gyulnara; Fabbietti, Laura; Fabris, Daniela; Faivre, Julien; Fantoni, Alessandra; Fasel, Markus; Feldkamp, Linus; Feliciello, Alessandro; Feofilov, Grigorii; Ferencei, Jozef; Fernandez Tellez, Arturo; Gonzalez Ferreiro, Elena; Ferretti, Alessandro; Festanti, Andrea; Feuillard, Victor Jose Gaston; Figiel, Jan; Araujo Silva Figueredo, Marcel; Filchagin, Sergey; Finogeev, Dmitry; Fionda, Fiorella; Fiore, Enrichetta Maria; Fleck, Martin Gabriel; Floris, Michele; Foertsch, Siegfried Valentin; Foka, Panagiota; Fokin, Sergey; Fragiacomo, Enrico; Francescon, Andrea; Frankenfeld, Ulrich Michael; Fronze, Gabriele Gaetano; Fuchs, Ulrich; Furget, Christophe; Furs, Artur; Fusco Girard, Mario; Gaardhoeje, Jens Joergen; Gagliardi, Martino; Gago Medina, Alberto Martin; Gallio, Mauro; Gangadharan, Dhevan Raja; Ganoti, Paraskevi; Gao, Chaosong; Garabatos Cuadrado, Jose; Garcia-Solis, Edmundo Javier; Gargiulo, Corrado; Gasik, Piotr Jan; Gauger, Erin Frances; Germain, Marie; Gheata, Andrei George; Gheata, Mihaela; Ghosh, Premomoy; Ghosh, Sanjay Kumar; Gianotti, Paola; Giubellino, Paolo; Giubilato, Piero; Gladysz-Dziadus, Ewa; Glassel, Peter; Gomez Coral, Diego Mauricio; Gomez Ramirez, Andres; Sanchez Gonzalez, Andres; Gonzalez, Victor; Gonzalez Zamora, Pedro; Gorbunov, Sergey; Gorlich, Lidia Maria; Gotovac, Sven; Grabski, Varlen; Grachov, Oleg Anatolievich; Graczykowski, Lukasz Kamil; Graham, Katie Leanne; Grelli, Alessandro; Grigoras, Alina Gabriela; Grigoras, Costin; Grigoryev, Vladislav; Grigoryan, Ara; Grigoryan, Smbat; Grynyov, Borys; Grion, Nevio; Gronefeld, Julius Maximilian; Grosse-Oetringhaus, Jan Fiete; Grosso, Raffaele; Guber, Fedor; Guernane, Rachid; Guerzoni, Barbara; Gulbrandsen, Kristjan Herlache; Gunji, Taku; Gupta, Anik; Gupta, Ramni; Haake, Rudiger; Haaland, Oystein Senneset; Hadjidakis, Cynthia Marie; Haiduc, Maria; Hamagaki, Hideki; Hamar, Gergoe; Hamon, Julien Charles; Harris, John William; Harton, Austin Vincent; Hatzifotiadou, Despina; Hayashi, Shinichi; Heckel, Stefan Thomas; Hellbar, Ernst; Helstrup, Haavard; Herghelegiu, Andrei Ionut; Herrera Corral, Gerardo Antonio; Hess, Benjamin Andreas; Hetland, Kristin Fanebust; Hillemanns, Hartmut; Hippolyte, Boris; Horak, David; Hosokawa, Ritsuya; Hristov, Peter Zahariev; Humanic, Thomas; Hussain, Nur; Hussain, Tahir; Hutter, Dirk; Hwang, Dae Sung; Ilkaev, Radiy; Inaba, Motoi; Incani, Elisa; Ippolitov, Mikhail; Irfan, Muhammad; Ivanov, Marian; Ivanov, Vladimir; Izucheev, Vladimir; Jacazio, Nicolo; Jacobs, Peter Martin; Jadhav, Manoj Bhanudas; Jadlovska, Slavka; Jadlovsky, Jan; Jahnke, Cristiane; Jakubowska, Monika Joanna; Jang, Haeng Jin; Janik, Malgorzata Anna; Pahula Hewage, Sandun; Jena, Chitrasen; Jena, Satyajit; Jimenez Bustamante, Raul Tonatiuh; Jones, Peter Graham; Jusko, Anton; Kalinak, Peter; Kalweit, Alexander Philipp; Kamin, Jason Adrian; Kang, Ju Hwan; Kaplin, Vladimir; Kar, Somnath; Karasu Uysal, Ayben; Karavichev, Oleg; Karavicheva, Tatiana; Karayan, Lilit; Karpechev, Evgeny; Kebschull, Udo Wolfgang; Keidel, Ralf; Keijdener, Darius Laurens; Keil, Markus; Khan, Mohammed Mohisin; Khan, Palash; Khan, Shuaib Ahmad; Khanzadeev, Alexei; Kharlov, Yury; Kileng, Bjarte; Kim, Do Won; Kim, Dong Jo; Kim, Daehyeok; Kim, Hyeonjoong; Kim, Jinsook; Kim, Minwoo; Kim, Se Yong; Kim, Taesoo; Kirsch, Stefan; Kisel, Ivan; Kiselev, Sergey; Kisiel, Adam Ryszard; Kiss, Gabor; Klay, Jennifer Lynn; Klein, Carsten; Klein, Jochen; Klein-Boesing, Christian; Klewin, Sebastian; Kluge, Alexander; Knichel, Michael Linus; Knospe, Anders Garritt; Kobdaj, Chinorat; Kofarago, Monika; Kollegger, Thorsten; Kolozhvari, Anatoly; Kondratev, Valerii; Kondratyeva, Natalia; Kondratyuk, Evgeny; Konevskikh, Artem; Kopcik, Michal; Kostarakis, Panagiotis; Kour, Mandeep; Kouzinopoulos, Charalampos; Kovalenko, Oleksandr; Kovalenko, Vladimir; Kowalski, Marek; Koyithatta Meethaleveedu, Greeshma; Kralik, Ivan; Kravcakova, Adela; Krivda, Marian; Krizek, Filip; Kryshen, Evgeny; Krzewicki, Mikolaj; Kubera, Andrew Michael; Kucera, Vit; Kuhn, Christian Claude; Kuijer, Paulus Gerardus; Kumar, Ajay; Kumar, Jitendra; Kumar, Lokesh; Kumar, Shyam; Kurashvili, Podist; Kurepin, Alexander; Kurepin, Alexey; Kuryakin, Alexey; Kweon, Min Jung; Kwon, Youngil; La Pointe, Sarah Louise; La Rocca, Paola; Ladron De Guevara, Pedro; Lagana Fernandes, Caio; Lakomov, Igor; Langoy, Rune; Lara Martinez, Camilo Ernesto; Lardeux, Antoine Xavier; Lattuca, Alessandra; Laudi, Elisa; Lea, Ramona; Leardini, Lucia; Lee, Graham Richard; Lee, Seongjoo; Lehas, Fatiha; Lemmon, Roy Crawford; Lenti, Vito; Leogrande, Emilia; Leon Monzon, Ildefonso; Leon Vargas, Hermes; Leoncino, Marco; Levai, Peter; Li, Shuang; Li, Xiaomei; Lien, Jorgen Andre; Lietava, Roman; Lindal, Svein; Lindenstruth, Volker; Lippmann, Christian; Lisa, Michael Annan; Ljunggren, Hans Martin; Lodato, Davide Francesco; Lonne, Per-Ivar; Loginov, Vitaly; Loizides, Constantinos; Lopez, Xavier Bernard; Lopez Torres, Ernesto; Lowe, Andrew John; Luettig, Philipp Johannes; Lunardon, Marcello; Luparello, Grazia; Lutz, Tyler Harrison; Maevskaya, Alla; Mager, Magnus; Mahajan, Sanjay; Mahmood, Sohail Musa; Maire, Antonin; Majka, Richard Daniel; Malaev, Mikhail; Maldonado Cervantes, Ivonne Alicia; Malinina, Liudmila; Mal'Kevich, Dmitry; Malzacher, Peter; Mamonov, Alexander; Manko, Vladislav; Manso, Franck; Manzari, Vito; Marchisone, Massimiliano; Mares, Jiri; Margagliotti, Giacomo Vito; Margotti, Anselmo; Margutti, Jacopo; Marin, Ana Maria; Markert, Christina; Marquard, Marco; Martin, Nicole Alice; Martin Blanco, Javier; Martinengo, Paolo; Martinez Hernandez, Mario Ivan; Martinez-Garcia, Gines; Martinez Pedreira, Miguel; Mas, Alexis Jean-Michel; Masciocchi, Silvia; Masera, Massimo; Masoni, Alberto; Mastroserio, Annalisa; Matyja, Adam Tomasz; Mayer, Christoph; Mazer, Joel Anthony; Mazzoni, Alessandra Maria; Mcdonald, Daniel; Meddi, Franco; Melikyan, Yuri; Menchaca-Rocha, Arturo Alejandro; Meninno, Elisa; Mercado-Perez, Jorge; Meres, Michal; Miake, Yasuo; Mieskolainen, Matti Mikael; Mikhaylov, Konstantin; Milano, Leonardo; Milosevic, Jovan; Mischke, Andre; Mishra, Aditya Nath; Miskowiec, Dariusz Czeslaw; Mitra, Jubin; Mitu, Ciprian Mihai; Mohammadi, Naghmeh; Mohanty, Bedangadas; Molnar, Levente; Montano Zetina, Luis Manuel; Montes Prado, Esther; Moreira De Godoy, Denise Aparecida; Perez Moreno, Luis Alberto; Moretto, Sandra; Morreale, Astrid; Morsch, Andreas; Muccifora, Valeria; Mudnic, Eugen; Muhlheim, Daniel Michael; Muhuri, Sanjib; Mukherjee, Maitreyee; Mulligan, James Declan; Gameiro Munhoz, Marcelo; Munzer, Robert Helmut; Murakami, Hikari; Murray, Sean; Musa, Luciano; Musinsky, Jan; Naik, Bharati; Nair, Rahul; Nandi, Basanta Kumar; Nania, Rosario; Nappi, Eugenio; Naru, Muhammad Umair; Ferreira Natal Da Luz, Pedro Hugo; Nattrass, Christine; Rosado Navarro, Sebastian; Nayak, Kishora; Nayak, Ranjit; Nayak, Tapan Kumar; Nazarenko, Sergey; Nedosekin, Alexander; Nellen, Lukas; Ng, Fabian; Nicassio, Maria; Niculescu, Mihai; Niedziela, Jeremi; Nielsen, Borge Svane; Nikolaev, Sergey; Nikulin, Sergey; Nikulin, Vladimir; Noferini, Francesco; Nomokonov, Petr; Nooren, Gerardus; Cabanillas Noris, Juan Carlos; Norman, Jaime; Nyanin, Alexander; Nystrand, Joakim Ingemar; Oeschler, Helmut Oskar; Oh, Saehanseul; Oh, Sun Kun; Ohlson, Alice Elisabeth; Okatan, Ali; Okubo, Tsubasa; Olah, Laszlo; Oleniacz, Janusz; Oliveira Da Silva, Antonio Carlos; Oliver, Michael Henry; Onderwaater, Jacobus; Oppedisano, Chiara; Orava, Risto; Oravec, Matej; Ortiz Velasquez, Antonio; Oskarsson, Anders Nils Erik; Otwinowski, Jacek Tomasz; Oyama, Ken; Ozdemir, Mahmut; Pachmayer, Yvonne Chiara; Pagano, Davide; Pagano, Paola; Paic, Guy; Pal, Susanta Kumar; Pan, Jinjin; Pandey, Ashutosh Kumar; Papikyan, Vardanush; Pappalardo, Giuseppe; Pareek, Pooja; Park, Woojin; Parmar, Sonia; Passfeld, Annika; Paticchio, Vincenzo; Patra, Rajendra Nath; Paul, Biswarup; Pei, Hua; Peitzmann, Thomas; Pereira Da Costa, Hugo Denis Antonio; Peresunko, Dmitry Yurevich; Perez Lara, Carlos Eugenio; Perez Lezama, Edgar; Peskov, Vladimir; Pestov, Yury; Petracek, Vojtech; Petrov, Viacheslav; Petrovici, Mihai; Petta, Catia; Piano, Stefano; Pikna, Miroslav; Pillot, Philippe; Ozelin De Lima Pimentel, Lais; Pinazza, Ombretta; Pinsky, Lawrence; Piyarathna, Danthasinghe; Ploskon, Mateusz Andrzej; Planinic, Mirko; Pluta, Jan Marian; Pochybova, Sona; Podesta Lerma, Pedro Luis Manuel; Poghosyan, Martin; Polishchuk, Boris; Poljak, Nikola; Poonsawat, Wanchaloem; Pop, Amalia; Porteboeuf, Sarah Julie; Porter, R Jefferson; Pospisil, Jan; Prasad, Sidharth Kumar; Preghenella, Roberto; Prino, Francesco; Pruneau, Claude Andre; Pshenichnov, Igor; Puccio, Maximiliano; Puddu, Giovanna; Pujahari, Prabhat Ranjan; Punin, Valery; Putschke, Jorn Henning; Qvigstad, Henrik; Rachevski, Alexandre; Raha, Sibaji; Rajput, Sonia; Rak, Jan; Rakotozafindrabe, Andry Malala; Ramello, Luciano; Rami, Fouad; Raniwala, Rashmi; Raniwala, Sudhir; Rasanen, Sami Sakari; Rascanu, Bogdan Theodor; Rathee, Deepika; Read, Kenneth Francis; Redlich, Krzysztof; Reed, Rosi Jan; Rehman, Attiq Ur; Reichelt, Patrick Simon; Reidt, Felix; Ren, Xiaowen; Renfordt, Rainer Arno Ernst; Reolon, Anna Rita; Reshetin, Andrey; Reygers, Klaus Johannes; Riabov, Viktor; Ricci, Renato Angelo; Richert, Tuva Ora Herenui; Richter, Matthias Rudolph; Riedler, Petra; Riegler, Werner; Riggi, Francesco; Ristea, Catalin-Lucian; Rocco, Elena; Rodriguez Cahuantzi, Mario; Rodriguez Manso, Alis; Roeed, Ketil; Rogochaya, Elena; Rohr, David Michael; Roehrich, Dieter; Ronchetti, Federico; Ronflette, Lucile; Rosnet, Philippe; Rossi, Andrea; Roukoutakis, Filimon; Roy, Ankhi; Roy, Christelle Sophie; Roy, Pradip Kumar; Rubio Montero, Antonio Juan; Rui, Rinaldo; Russo, Riccardo; Ryabinkin, Evgeny; Ryabov, Yury; Rybicki, Andrzej; Saarinen, Sampo; Sadhu, Samrangy; Sadovskiy, Sergey; Safarik, Karel; Sahlmuller, Baldo; Sahoo, Pragati; Sahoo, Raghunath; Sahoo, Sarita; Sahu, Pradip Kumar; Saini, Jogender; Sakai, Shingo; Saleh, Mohammad Ahmad; Salzwedel, Jai Samuel Nielsen; Sambyal, Sanjeev Singh; Samsonov, Vladimir; Sandor, Ladislav; Sandoval, Andres; Sano, Masato; Sarkar, Debojit; Sarkar, Nachiketa; Sarma, Pranjal; Scapparone, Eugenio; Scarlassara, Fernando; Schiaua, Claudiu Cornel; Schicker, Rainer Martin; Schmidt, Christian Joachim; Schmidt, Hans Rudolf; Schuchmann, Simone; Schukraft, Jurgen; Schulc, Martin; Schutz, Yves Roland; Schwarz, Kilian Eberhard; Schweda, Kai Oliver; Scioli, Gilda; Scomparin, Enrico; Scott, Rebecca Michelle; Sefcik, Michal; Seger, Janet Elizabeth; Sekiguchi, Yuko; Sekihata, Daiki; Selyuzhenkov, Ilya; Senosi, Kgotlaesele; Senyukov, Serhiy; Serradilla Rodriguez, Eulogio; Sevcenco, Adrian; Shabanov, Arseniy; Shabetai, Alexandre; Shadura, Oksana; Shahoyan, Ruben; Shahzad, Muhammed Ikram; Shangaraev, Artem; Sharma, Ankita; Sharma, Mona; Sharma, Monika; Sharma, Natasha; Sheikh, Ashik Ikbal; Shigaki, Kenta; Shou, Qiye; Shtejer Diaz, Katherin; Sibiryak, Yury; Siddhanta, Sabyasachi; Sielewicz, Krzysztof Marek; Siemiarczuk, Teodor; Silvermyr, David Olle Rickard; Silvestre, Catherine Micaela; Simatovic, Goran; Simonetti, Giuseppe; Singaraju, Rama Narayana; Singh, Ranbir; Singha, Subhash; Singhal, Vikas; Sinha, Bikash; Sarkar - Sinha, Tinku; Sitar, Branislav; Sitta, Mario; Skaali, Bernhard; Slupecki, Maciej; Smirnov, Nikolai; Snellings, Raimond; Snellman, Tomas Wilhelm; Song, Jihye; Song, Myunggeun; Song, Zixuan; Soramel, Francesca; Sorensen, Soren Pontoppidan; Derradi De Souza, Rafael; Sozzi, Federica; Spacek, Michal; Spiriti, Eleuterio; Sputowska, Iwona Anna; Spyropoulou-Stassinaki, Martha; Stachel, Johanna; Stan, Ionel; Stankus, Paul; Stenlund, Evert Anders; Steyn, Gideon Francois; Stiller, Johannes Hendrik; Stocco, Diego; Strmen, Peter; Alarcon Do Passo Suaide, Alexandre; Sugitate, Toru; Suire, Christophe Pierre; Suleymanov, Mais Kazim Oglu; Suljic, Miljenko; Sultanov, Rishat; Sumbera, Michal; Sumowidagdo, Suharyo; Szabo, Alexander; Szanto De Toledo, Alejandro; Szarka, Imrich; Szczepankiewicz, Adam; Szymanski, Maciej Pawel; Tabassam, Uzma; Takahashi, Jun; Tambave, Ganesh Jagannath; Tanaka, Naoto; Tarhini, Mohamad; Tariq, Mohammad; Tarzila, Madalina-Gabriela; Tauro, Arturo; Tejeda Munoz, Guillermo; Telesca, Adriana; Terasaki, Kohei; Terrevoli, Cristina; Teyssier, Boris; Thaeder, Jochen Mathias; Thakur, Dhananjaya; Thomas, Deepa; Tieulent, Raphael Noel; Timmins, Anthony Robert; Toia, Alberica; Trogolo, Stefano; Trombetta, Giuseppe; Trubnikov, Victor; Trzaska, Wladyslaw Henryk; Tsuji, Tomoya; Tumkin, Alexandr; Turrisi, Rosario; Tveter, Trine Spedstad; Ullaland, Kjetil; Uras, Antonio; Usai, Gianluca; Utrobicic, Antonija; Vala, Martin; Valencia Palomo, Lizardo; Vallero, Sara; Van Der Maarel, Jasper; Van Hoorne, Jacobus Willem; Van Leeuwen, Marco; Vanat, Tomas; Vande Vyvre, Pierre; Varga, Dezso; Diozcora Vargas Trevino, Aurora; Vargyas, Marton; Varma, Raghava; Vasileiou, Maria; Vasiliev, Andrey; Vauthier, Astrid; Vechernin, Vladimir; Veen, Annelies Marianne; Veldhoen, Misha; Velure, Arild; Vercellin, Ermanno; Vergara Limon, Sergio; Vernet, Renaud; Verweij, Marta; Vickovic, Linda; Viesti, Giuseppe; Viinikainen, Jussi Samuli; Vilakazi, Zabulon; Villalobos Baillie, Orlando; Villatoro Tello, Abraham; Vinogradov, Alexander; Vinogradov, Leonid; Vinogradov, Yury; Virgili, Tiziano; Vislavicius, Vytautas; Viyogi, Yogendra; Vodopyanov, Alexander; Volkl, Martin Andreas; Voloshin, Kirill; Voloshin, Sergey; Volpe, Giacomo; Von Haller, Barthelemy; Vorobyev, Ivan; Vranic, Danilo; Vrlakova, Janka; Vulpescu, Bogdan; Wagner, Boris; Wagner, Jan; Wang, Hongkai; Wang, Mengliang; Watanabe, Daisuke; Watanabe, Yosuke; Weber, Michael; Weber, Steffen Georg; Weiser, Dennis Franz; Wessels, Johannes Peter; Westerhoff, Uwe; Whitehead, Andile Mothegi; Wiechula, Jens; Wikne, Jon; Wilk, Grzegorz Andrzej; Wilkinson, Jeremy John; Williams, Crispin; Windelband, Bernd Stefan; Winn, Michael Andreas; Yang, Hongyan; Yang, Ping; Yano, Satoshi; Yasin, Zafar; Yin, Zhongbao; Yokoyama, Hiroki; Yoo, In-Kwon; Yoon, Jin Hee; Yurchenko, Volodymyr; Yushmanov, Igor; Zaborowska, Anna; Zaccolo, Valentina; Zaman, Ali; Zampolli, Chiara; Correia Zanoli, Henrique Jose; Zaporozhets, Sergey; Zardoshti, Nima; Zarochentsev, Andrey; Zavada, Petr; Zavyalov, Nikolay; Zbroszczyk, Hanna Paulina; Zgura, Sorin Ion; Zhalov, Mikhail; Zhang, Haitao; Zhang, Xiaoming; Zhang, Yonghong; Chunhui, Zhang; Zhang, Zuman; Zhao, Chengxin; Zhigareva, Natalia; Zhou, Daicui; Zhou, You; Zhou, Zhuo; Zhu, Hongsheng; Zhu, Jianhui; Zichichi, Antonino; Zimmermann, Alice; Zimmermann, Markus Bernhard; Zinovjev, Gennady; Zyzak, Maksym

    2016-05-25

    We present a Bayesian approach to particle identification (PID) within the ALICE experiment. The aim is to more effectively combine the particle identification capabilities of its various detectors. After a brief explanation of the adopted methodology and formalism, the performance of the Bayesian PID approach for charged pions, kaons and protons in the central barrel of ALICE is studied. PID is performed via measurements of specific energy loss (dE/dx) and time-of-flight. PID efficiencies and misidentification probabilities are extracted and compared with Monte Carlo simulations using high purity samples of identified particles in the decay channels ${\\rm K}_{\\rm S}^{\\rm 0}\\rightarrow \\pi^+\\pi^-$, $\\phi\\rightarrow {\\rm K}^-{\\rm K}^+$ and $\\Lambda\\rightarrow{\\rm p}\\pi^-$ in p–Pb collisions at $\\sqrt{s_{\\rm NN}}= 5.02$TeV. In order to thoroughly assess the validity of the Bayesian approach, this methodology was used to obtain corrected $p_{\\rm T}$ spectra of pions, kaons, protons, and D$^0$ mesons in pp coll...

  16. Risk Based Maintenance of Offshore Wind Turbines Using Bayesian Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jannie Jessen; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents how Bayesian networks can be used to make optimal decisions for repairs of offshore wind turbines. The Bayesian network is an efficient tool for updating a deterioration model whenever new information becomes available from inspections/monitoring. The optimal decision is found...... such that the preventive maintenance effort is balanced against the costs to corrective maintenance including indirect costs to reduced production. The basis for the optimization is the risk based Bayesian decision theory. The method is demonstrated through an application example....

  17. Meiotic gene-conversion rate and tract length variation in the human genome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padhukasahasram, Badri; Rannala, Bruce

    2013-02-27

    Meiotic recombination occurs in the form of two different mechanisms called crossing-over and gene-conversion and both processes have an important role in shaping genetic variation in populations. Although variation in crossing-over rates has been studied extensively using sperm-typing experiments, pedigree studies and population genetic approaches, our knowledge of variation in gene-conversion parameters (ie, rates and mean tract lengths) remains far from complete. To explore variability in population gene-conversion rates and its relationship to crossing-over rate variation patterns, we have developed and validated using coalescent simulations a comprehensive Bayesian full-likelihood method that can jointly infer crossing-over and gene-conversion rates as well as tract lengths from population genomic data under general variable rate models with recombination hotspots. Here, we apply this new method to SNP data from multiple human populations and attempt to characterize for the first time the fine-scale variation in gene-conversion parameters along the human genome. We find that the estimated ratio of gene-conversion to crossing-over rates varies considerably across genomic regions as well as between populations. However, there is a great degree of uncertainty associated with such estimates. We also find substantial evidence for variation in the mean conversion tract length. The estimated tract lengths did not show any negative relationship with the local heterozygosity levels in our analysis.European Journal of Human Genetics advance online publication, 27 February 2013; doi:10.1038/ejhg.2013.30.

  18. A Bayesian nonparametric approach to causal inference on quantiles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Dandan; Daniels, Michael J; Winterstein, Almut G

    2018-02-25

    We propose a Bayesian nonparametric approach (BNP) for causal inference on quantiles in the presence of many confounders. In particular, we define relevant causal quantities and specify BNP models to avoid bias from restrictive parametric assumptions. We first use Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) to model the propensity score and then construct the distribution of potential outcomes given the propensity score using a Dirichlet process mixture (DPM) of normals model. We thoroughly evaluate the operating characteristics of our approach and compare it to Bayesian and frequentist competitors. We use our approach to answer an important clinical question involving acute kidney injury using electronic health records. © 2018, The International Biometric Society.

  19. Approximate Bayesian computation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mikael Sunnåker

    Full Text Available Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC constitutes a class of computational methods rooted in Bayesian statistics. In all model-based statistical inference, the likelihood function is of central importance, since it expresses the probability of the observed data under a particular statistical model, and thus quantifies the support data lend to particular values of parameters and to choices among different models. For simple models, an analytical formula for the likelihood function can typically be derived. However, for more complex models, an analytical formula might be elusive or the likelihood function might be computationally very costly to evaluate. ABC methods bypass the evaluation of the likelihood function. In this way, ABC methods widen the realm of models for which statistical inference can be considered. ABC methods are mathematically well-founded, but they inevitably make assumptions and approximations whose impact needs to be carefully assessed. Furthermore, the wider application domain of ABC exacerbates the challenges of parameter estimation and model selection. ABC has rapidly gained popularity over the last years and in particular for the analysis of complex problems arising in biological sciences (e.g., in population genetics, ecology, epidemiology, and systems biology.

  20. Probability and Bayesian statistics

    CERN Document Server

    1987-01-01

    This book contains selected and refereed contributions to the "Inter­ national Symposium on Probability and Bayesian Statistics" which was orga­ nized to celebrate the 80th birthday of Professor Bruno de Finetti at his birthplace Innsbruck in Austria. Since Professor de Finetti died in 1985 the symposium was dedicated to the memory of Bruno de Finetti and took place at Igls near Innsbruck from 23 to 26 September 1986. Some of the pa­ pers are published especially by the relationship to Bruno de Finetti's scientific work. The evolution of stochastics shows growing importance of probability as coherent assessment of numerical values as degrees of believe in certain events. This is the basis for Bayesian inference in the sense of modern statistics. The contributions in this volume cover a broad spectrum ranging from foundations of probability across psychological aspects of formulating sub­ jective probability statements, abstract measure theoretical considerations, contributions to theoretical statistics an...

  1. Balanced sensitivity functions for tuning multi-dimensional Bayesian network classifiers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bolt, J.H.; van der Gaag, L.C.

    Multi-dimensional Bayesian network classifiers are Bayesian networks of restricted topological structure, which are tailored to classifying data instances into multiple dimensions. Like more traditional classifiers, multi-dimensional classifiers are typically learned from data and may include

  2. Uses and misuses of Bayes' rule and Bayesian classifiers in cybersecurity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bard, Gregory V.

    2017-12-01

    This paper will discuss the applications of Bayes' Rule and Bayesian Classifiers in Cybersecurity. While the most elementary form of Bayes' rule occurs in undergraduate coursework, there are more complicated forms as well. As an extended example, Bayesian spam filtering is explored, and is in many ways the most triumphant accomplishment of Bayesian reasoning in computer science, as nearly everyone with an email address has a spam folder. Bayesian Classifiers have also been responsible significant cybersecurity research results; yet, because they are not part of the standard curriculum, few in the mathematics or information-technology communities have seen the exact definitions, requirements, and proofs that comprise the subject. Moreover, numerous errors have been made by researchers (described in this paper), due to some mathematical misunderstandings dealing with conditional independence, or other badly chosen assumptions. Finally, to provide instructors and researchers with real-world examples, 25 published cybersecurity papers that use Bayesian reasoning are given, with 2-4 sentence summaries of the focus and contributions of each paper.

  3. Efficient fuzzy Bayesian inference algorithms for incorporating expert knowledge in parameter estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajabi, Mohammad Mahdi; Ataie-Ashtiani, Behzad

    2016-05-01

    Bayesian inference has traditionally been conceived as the proper framework for the formal incorporation of expert knowledge in parameter estimation of groundwater models. However, conventional Bayesian inference is incapable of taking into account the imprecision essentially embedded in expert provided information. In order to solve this problem, a number of extensions to conventional Bayesian inference have been introduced in recent years. One of these extensions is 'fuzzy Bayesian inference' which is the result of integrating fuzzy techniques into Bayesian statistics. Fuzzy Bayesian inference has a number of desirable features which makes it an attractive approach for incorporating expert knowledge in the parameter estimation process of groundwater models: (1) it is well adapted to the nature of expert provided information, (2) it allows to distinguishably model both uncertainty and imprecision, and (3) it presents a framework for fusing expert provided information regarding the various inputs of the Bayesian inference algorithm. However an important obstacle in employing fuzzy Bayesian inference in groundwater numerical modeling applications is the computational burden, as the required number of numerical model simulations often becomes extremely exhaustive and often computationally infeasible. In this paper, a novel approach of accelerating the fuzzy Bayesian inference algorithm is proposed which is based on using approximate posterior distributions derived from surrogate modeling, as a screening tool in the computations. The proposed approach is first applied to a synthetic test case of seawater intrusion (SWI) in a coastal aquifer. It is shown that for this synthetic test case, the proposed approach decreases the number of required numerical simulations by an order of magnitude. Then the proposed approach is applied to a real-world test case involving three-dimensional numerical modeling of SWI in Kish Island, located in the Persian Gulf. An expert

  4. Discriminative Bayesian Dictionary Learning for Classification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akhtar, Naveed; Shafait, Faisal; Mian, Ajmal

    2016-12-01

    We propose a Bayesian approach to learn discriminative dictionaries for sparse representation of data. The proposed approach infers probability distributions over the atoms of a discriminative dictionary using a finite approximation of Beta Process. It also computes sets of Bernoulli distributions that associate class labels to the learned dictionary atoms. This association signifies the selection probabilities of the dictionary atoms in the expansion of class-specific data. Furthermore, the non-parametric character of the proposed approach allows it to infer the correct size of the dictionary. We exploit the aforementioned Bernoulli distributions in separately learning a linear classifier. The classifier uses the same hierarchical Bayesian model as the dictionary, which we present along the analytical inference solution for Gibbs sampling. For classification, a test instance is first sparsely encoded over the learned dictionary and the codes are fed to the classifier. We performed experiments for face and action recognition; and object and scene-category classification using five public datasets and compared the results with state-of-the-art discriminative sparse representation approaches. Experiments show that the proposed Bayesian approach consistently outperforms the existing approaches.

  5. Risk-sensitivity in Bayesian sensorimotor integration.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jordi Grau-Moya

    Full Text Available Information processing in the nervous system during sensorimotor tasks with inherent uncertainty has been shown to be consistent with Bayesian integration. Bayes optimal decision-makers are, however, risk-neutral in the sense that they weigh all possibilities based on prior expectation and sensory evidence when they choose the action with highest expected value. In contrast, risk-sensitive decision-makers are sensitive to model uncertainty and bias their decision-making processes when they do inference over unobserved variables. In particular, they allow deviations from their probabilistic model in cases where this model makes imprecise predictions. Here we test for risk-sensitivity in a sensorimotor integration task where subjects exhibit Bayesian information integration when they infer the position of a target from noisy sensory feedback. When introducing a cost associated with subjects' response, we found that subjects exhibited a characteristic bias towards low cost responses when their uncertainty was high. This result is in accordance with risk-sensitive decision-making processes that allow for deviations from Bayes optimal decision-making in the face of uncertainty. Our results suggest that both Bayesian integration and risk-sensitivity are important factors to understand sensorimotor integration in a quantitative fashion.

  6. Tree Branching: Leonardo da Vinci's Rule versus Biomechanical Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minamino, Ryoko; Tateno, Masaki

    2014-01-01

    This study examined Leonardo da Vinci's rule (i.e., the sum of the cross-sectional area of all tree branches above a branching point at any height is equal to the cross-sectional area of the trunk or the branch immediately below the branching point) using simulations based on two biomechanical models: the uniform stress and elastic similarity models. Model calculations of the daughter/mother ratio (i.e., the ratio of the total cross-sectional area of the daughter branches to the cross-sectional area of the mother branch at the branching point) showed that both biomechanical models agreed with da Vinci's rule when the branching angles of daughter branches and the weights of lateral daughter branches were small; however, the models deviated from da Vinci's rule as the weights and/or the branching angles of lateral daughter branches increased. The calculated values of the two models were largely similar but differed in some ways. Field measurements of Fagus crenata and Abies homolepis also fit this trend, wherein models deviated from da Vinci's rule with increasing relative weights of lateral daughter branches. However, this deviation was small for a branching pattern in nature, where empirical measurements were taken under realistic measurement conditions; thus, da Vinci's rule did not critically contradict the biomechanical models in the case of real branching patterns, though the model calculations described the contradiction between da Vinci's rule and the biomechanical models. The field data for Fagus crenata fit the uniform stress model best, indicating that stress uniformity is the key constraint of branch morphology in Fagus crenata rather than elastic similarity or da Vinci's rule. On the other hand, mechanical constraints are not necessarily significant in the morphology of Abies homolepis branches, depending on the number of daughter branches. Rather, these branches were often in agreement with da Vinci's rule. PMID:24714065

  7. Tree branching: Leonardo da Vinci's rule versus biomechanical models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minamino, Ryoko; Tateno, Masaki

    2014-01-01

    This study examined Leonardo da Vinci's rule (i.e., the sum of the cross-sectional area of all tree branches above a branching point at any height is equal to the cross-sectional area of the trunk or the branch immediately below the branching point) using simulations based on two biomechanical models: the uniform stress and elastic similarity models. Model calculations of the daughter/mother ratio (i.e., the ratio of the total cross-sectional area of the daughter branches to the cross-sectional area of the mother branch at the branching point) showed that both biomechanical models agreed with da Vinci's rule when the branching angles of daughter branches and the weights of lateral daughter branches were small; however, the models deviated from da Vinci's rule as the weights and/or the branching angles of lateral daughter branches increased. The calculated values of the two models were largely similar but differed in some ways. Field measurements of Fagus crenata and Abies homolepis also fit this trend, wherein models deviated from da Vinci's rule with increasing relative weights of lateral daughter branches. However, this deviation was small for a branching pattern in nature, where empirical measurements were taken under realistic measurement conditions; thus, da Vinci's rule did not critically contradict the biomechanical models in the case of real branching patterns, though the model calculations described the contradiction between da Vinci's rule and the biomechanical models. The field data for Fagus crenata fit the uniform stress model best, indicating that stress uniformity is the key constraint of branch morphology in Fagus crenata rather than elastic similarity or da Vinci's rule. On the other hand, mechanical constraints are not necessarily significant in the morphology of Abies homolepis branches, depending on the number of daughter branches. Rather, these branches were often in agreement with da Vinci's rule.

  8. Sparse-grid, reduced-basis Bayesian inversion: Nonaffine-parametric nonlinear equations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Peng, E-mail: peng@ices.utexas.edu [The Institute for Computational Engineering and Sciences, The University of Texas at Austin, 201 East 24th Street, Stop C0200, Austin, TX 78712-1229 (United States); Schwab, Christoph, E-mail: christoph.schwab@sam.math.ethz.ch [Seminar für Angewandte Mathematik, Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule, Römistrasse 101, CH-8092 Zürich (Switzerland)

    2016-07-01

    We extend the reduced basis (RB) accelerated Bayesian inversion methods for affine-parametric, linear operator equations which are considered in [16,17] to non-affine, nonlinear parametric operator equations. We generalize the analysis of sparsity of parametric forward solution maps in [20] and of Bayesian inversion in [48,49] to the fully discrete setting, including Petrov–Galerkin high-fidelity (“HiFi”) discretization of the forward maps. We develop adaptive, stochastic collocation based reduction methods for the efficient computation of reduced bases on the parametric solution manifold. The nonaffinity and nonlinearity with respect to (w.r.t.) the distributed, uncertain parameters and the unknown solution is collocated; specifically, by the so-called Empirical Interpolation Method (EIM). For the corresponding Bayesian inversion problems, computational efficiency is enhanced in two ways: first, expectations w.r.t. the posterior are computed by adaptive quadratures with dimension-independent convergence rates proposed in [49]; the present work generalizes [49] to account for the impact of the PG discretization in the forward maps on the convergence rates of the Quantities of Interest (QoI for short). Second, we propose to perform the Bayesian estimation only w.r.t. a parsimonious, RB approximation of the posterior density. Based on the approximation results in [49], the infinite-dimensional parametric, deterministic forward map and operator admit N-term RB and EIM approximations which converge at rates which depend only on the sparsity of the parametric forward map. In several numerical experiments, the proposed algorithms exhibit dimension-independent convergence rates which equal, at least, the currently known rate estimates for N-term approximation. We propose to accelerate Bayesian estimation by first offline construction of reduced basis surrogates of the Bayesian posterior density. The parsimonious surrogates can then be employed for online data

  9. Space Shuttle RTOS Bayesian Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, A. Terry; Beling, Peter A.

    2001-01-01

    With shrinking budgets and the requirements to increase reliability and operational life of the existing orbiter fleet, NASA has proposed various upgrades for the Space Shuttle that are consistent with national space policy. The cockpit avionics upgrade (CAU), a high priority item, has been selected as the next major upgrade. The primary functions of cockpit avionics include flight control, guidance and navigation, communication, and orbiter landing support. Secondary functions include the provision of operational services for non-avionics systems such as data handling for the payloads and caution and warning alerts to the crew. Recently, a process to selection the optimal commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) real-time operating system (RTOS) for the CAU was conducted by United Space Alliance (USA) Corporation, which is a joint venture between Boeing and Lockheed Martin, the prime contractor for space shuttle operations. In order to independently assess the RTOS selection, NASA has used the Bayesian network-based scoring methodology described in this paper. Our two-stage methodology addresses the issue of RTOS acceptability by incorporating functional, performance and non-functional software measures related to reliability, interoperability, certifiability, efficiency, correctness, business, legal, product history, cost and life cycle. The first stage of the methodology involves obtaining scores for the various measures using a Bayesian network. The Bayesian network incorporates the causal relationships between the various and often competing measures of interest while also assisting the inherently complex decision analysis process with its ability to reason under uncertainty. The structure and selection of prior probabilities for the network is extracted from experts in the field of real-time operating systems. Scores for the various measures are computed using Bayesian probability. In the second stage, multi-criteria trade-off analyses are performed between the scores

  10. Cravity modulation of the moss Tortula modica branching

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khorkavtsiv, Yaroslava; Kit, Nadja

    Among various abiotic factors the sensor system of plants constantly perceives light and gravitation impulses and reacts on their action by photo- and gravitropisms. Tropisms play fundamental part in ontogenesis and determination of plant forms. Essentially important question is how light initiating phototropic bending modulates gravitropism. In contrast to flower plants, red light is phototropically active for mosses, and phytochromic system controls initiation of apical growth, branching and photomorphogenesis of mosses. The aim of this investigation was to analyse cell branching of protonemata Tortula modica Zander depending on the direction of light and gravitation vector. The influence of light and gravitation on the form of protonemal turf T. modica, branching and the angle of lateral branches relative to axis of mother cell growth has been investigated. As moss protonemata is not branched in the darkness, light is necessary for branching activation. Minimally low intensity of the red light (0.2 mmol (.) m (-2) ({) .}sec (-1) ) induced branching without visual display of phototropic growth. It has been established that unidirectional action of light and gravitation intensifies branching, and, on the contrary, perpendicularly oriented vectors of factors weaken branches formation. Besides, parallel oriented vectors initiated branching from both cell sides, but oppositely directed vectors initiated branching only from one side. Clinostate rotation the change of the vector gravity and causes uniform cell branching, hence, light and gravitation mutually influence the branching system form of the protonemata cell. It has been shown that the angle of lateral branches in darkness does not depend on the direction of light and gravitation action. After lighting the local growth of the cell wall took place mainly under the angle 90 (o) to the axes of mother cell growth. Then the angle gradually decreased and in 3-4 cell divisions the lateral branch grew under the angle

  11. Additional chain-branching pathways in the low-temperature oxidation of branched alkanes

    KAUST Repository

    Wang, Zhandong

    2015-12-31

    Chain-branching reactions represent a general motif in chemistry, encountered in atmospheric chemistry, combustion, polymerization, and photochemistry; the nature and amount of radicals generated by chain-branching are decisive for the reaction progress, its energy signature, and the time towards its completion. In this study, experimental evidence for two new types of chain-branching reactions is presented, based upon detection of highly oxidized multifunctional molecules (HOM) formed during the gas-phase low-temperature oxidation of a branched alkane under conditions relevant to combustion. The oxidation of 2,5-dimethylhexane (DMH) in a jet-stirred reactor (JSR) was studied using synchrotron vacuum ultra-violet photoionization molecular beam mass spectrometry (SVUV-PI-MBMS). Specifically, species with four and five oxygen atoms were probed, having molecular formulas of C8H14O4 (e.g., diketo-hydroperoxide/keto-hydroperoxy cyclic ether) and C8H16O5 (e.g., keto-dihydroperoxide/dihydroperoxy cyclic ether), respectively. The formation of C8H16O5 species involves alternative isomerization of OOQOOH radicals via intramolecular H-atom migration, followed by third O2 addition, intramolecular isomerization, and OH release; C8H14O4 species are proposed to result from subsequent reactions of C8H16O5 species. The mechanistic pathways involving these species are related to those proposed as a source of low-volatility highly oxygenated species in Earth\\'s troposphere. At the higher temperatures relevant to auto-ignition, they can result in a net increase of hydroxyl radical production, so these are additional radical chain-branching pathways for ignition. The results presented herein extend the conceptual basis of reaction mechanisms used to predict the reaction behavior of ignition, and have implications on atmospheric gas-phase chemistry and the oxidative stability of organic substances. © 2015 The Combustion Institute.

  12. Bayesian uncertainty analyses of probabilistic risk models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pulkkinen, U.

    1989-01-01

    Applications of Bayesian principles to the uncertainty analyses are discussed in the paper. A short review of the most important uncertainties and their causes is provided. An application of the principle of maximum entropy to the determination of Bayesian prior distributions is described. An approach based on so called probabilistic structures is presented in order to develop a method of quantitative evaluation of modelling uncertainties. The method is applied to a small example case. Ideas for application areas for the proposed method are discussed

  13. Bayesian estimation and tracking a practical guide

    CERN Document Server

    Haug, Anton J

    2012-01-01

    A practical approach to estimating and tracking dynamic systems in real-worl applications Much of the literature on performing estimation for non-Gaussian systems is short on practical methodology, while Gaussian methods often lack a cohesive derivation. Bayesian Estimation and Tracking addresses the gap in the field on both accounts, providing readers with a comprehensive overview of methods for estimating both linear and nonlinear dynamic systems driven by Gaussian and non-Gaussian noices. Featuring a unified approach to Bayesian estimation and tracking, the book emphasizes the derivation

  14. A Probability-based Evolutionary Algorithm with Mutations to Learn Bayesian Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sho Fukuda

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Bayesian networks are regarded as one of the essential tools to analyze causal relationship between events from data. To learn the structure of highly-reliable Bayesian networks from data as quickly as possible is one of the important problems that several studies have been tried to achieve. In recent years, probability-based evolutionary algorithms have been proposed as a new efficient approach to learn Bayesian networks. In this paper, we target on one of the probability-based evolutionary algorithms called PBIL (Probability-Based Incremental Learning, and propose a new mutation operator. Through performance evaluation, we found that the proposed mutation operator has a good performance in learning Bayesian networks

  15. Justifying Objective Bayesianism on Predicate Languages

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jürgen Landes

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Objective Bayesianism says that the strengths of one’s beliefs ought to be probabilities, calibrated to physical probabilities insofar as one has evidence of them, and otherwise sufficiently equivocal. These norms of belief are often explicated using the maximum entropy principle. In this paper we investigate the extent to which one can provide a unified justification of the objective Bayesian norms in the case in which the background language is a first-order predicate language, with a view to applying the resulting formalism to inductive logic. We show that the maximum entropy principle can be motivated largely in terms of minimising worst-case expected loss.

  16. Structure-based bayesian sparse reconstruction

    KAUST Repository

    Quadeer, Ahmed Abdul; Al-Naffouri, Tareq Y.

    2012-01-01

    Sparse signal reconstruction algorithms have attracted research attention due to their wide applications in various fields. In this paper, we present a simple Bayesian approach that utilizes the sparsity constraint and a priori statistical

  17. Continuous correction of differential path length factor in near-infrared spectroscopy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Talukdar, Tanveer; Moore, Jason H; Diamond, Solomon G

    2013-05-01

    In continuous-wave near-infrared spectroscopy (CW-NIRS), changes in the concentration of oxyhemoglobin and deoxyhemoglobin can be calculated by solving a set of linear equations from the modified Beer-Lambert Law. Cross-talk error in the calculated hemodynamics can arise from inaccurate knowledge of the wavelength-dependent differential path length factor (DPF). We apply the extended Kalman filter (EKF) with a dynamical systems model to calculate relative concentration changes in oxy- and deoxyhemoglobin while simultaneously estimating relative changes in DPF. Results from simulated and experimental CW-NIRS data are compared with results from a weighted least squares (WLSQ) method. The EKF method was found to effectively correct for artificially introduced errors in DPF and to reduce the cross-talk error in simulation. With experimental CW-NIRS data, the hemodynamic estimates from EKF differ significantly from the WLSQ (p EKF method compared to WLSQ in three physiologically relevant spectral bands 0.04 to 0.15 Hz, 0.15 to 0.4 Hz and 0.4 to 2.0 Hz (p EKF method.

  18. Bayesian programming

    CERN Document Server

    Bessiere, Pierre; Ahuactzin, Juan Manuel; Mekhnacha, Kamel

    2013-01-01

    Probability as an Alternative to Boolean LogicWhile logic is the mathematical foundation of rational reasoning and the fundamental principle of computing, it is restricted to problems where information is both complete and certain. However, many real-world problems, from financial investments to email filtering, are incomplete or uncertain in nature. Probability theory and Bayesian computing together provide an alternative framework to deal with incomplete and uncertain data. Decision-Making Tools and Methods for Incomplete and Uncertain DataEmphasizing probability as an alternative to Boolean

  19. Bayesian Approaches to Imputation, Hypothesis Testing, and Parameter Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, Steven J.; Mackey, Beth

    2015-01-01

    This chapter introduces three applications of Bayesian inference to common and novel issues in second language research. After a review of the critiques of conventional hypothesis testing, our focus centers on ways Bayesian inference can be used for dealing with missing data, for testing theory-driven substantive hypotheses without a default null…

  20. Optimization of multi-branch switched diversity systems

    KAUST Repository

    Nam, Haewoon

    2009-10-01

    A performance optimization based on the optimal switching threshold(s) for a multi-branch switched diversity system is discussed in this paper. For the conventional multi-branch switched diversity system with a single switching threshold, the optimal switching threshold is a function of both the average channel SNR and the number of diversity branches, where computing the optimal switching threshold is not a simple task when the number of diversity branches is high. The newly proposed multi-branch switched diversity system is based on a sequence of switching thresholds, instead of a single switching threshold, where a different diversity branch uses a different switching threshold for signal comparison. Thanks to the fact that each switching threshold in the sequence can be optimized only based on the number of the remaining diversity branches, the proposed system makes it easy to find these switching thresholds. Furthermore, some selected numerical and simulation results show that the proposed switched diversity system with the sequence of optimal switching thresholds outperforms the conventional system with the single optimal switching threshold. © 2009 IEEE.

  1. Automated Image Analysis of Lung Branching Morphogenesis from Microscopic Images of Fetal Rat Explants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodrigues, Pedro L.; Rodrigues, Nuno F.; Duque, Duarte; Granja, Sara; Correia-Pinto, Jorge; Vilaça, João L.

    2014-01-01

    Background. Regulating mechanisms of branching morphogenesis of fetal lung rat explants have been an essential tool for molecular research. This work presents a new methodology to accurately quantify the epithelial, outer contour, and peripheral airway buds of lung explants during cellular development from microscopic images. Methods. The outer contour was defined using an adaptive and multiscale threshold algorithm whose level was automatically calculated based on an entropy maximization criterion. The inner lung epithelium was defined by a clustering procedure that groups small image regions according to the minimum description length principle and local statistical properties. Finally, the number of peripheral buds was counted as the skeleton branched ends from a skeletonized image of the lung inner epithelia. Results. The time for lung branching morphometric analysis was reduced in 98% in contrast to the manual method. Best results were obtained in the first two days of cellular development, with lesser standard deviations. Nonsignificant differences were found between the automatic and manual results in all culture days. Conclusions. The proposed method introduces a series of advantages related to its intuitive use and accuracy, making the technique suitable to images with different lighting characteristics and allowing a reliable comparison between different researchers. PMID:25250057

  2. Automated Image Analysis of Lung Branching Morphogenesis from Microscopic Images of Fetal Rat Explants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pedro L. Rodrigues

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Regulating mechanisms of branching morphogenesis of fetal lung rat explants have been an essential tool for molecular research. This work presents a new methodology to accurately quantify the epithelial, outer contour, and peripheral airway buds of lung explants during cellular development from microscopic images. Methods. The outer contour was defined using an adaptive and multiscale threshold algorithm whose level was automatically calculated based on an entropy maximization criterion. The inner lung epithelium was defined by a clustering procedure that groups small image regions according to the minimum description length principle and local statistical properties. Finally, the number of peripheral buds was counted as the skeleton branched ends from a skeletonized image of the lung inner epithelia. Results. The time for lung branching morphometric analysis was reduced in 98% in contrast to the manual method. Best results were obtained in the first two days of cellular development, with lesser standard deviations. Nonsignificant differences were found between the automatic and manual results in all culture days. Conclusions. The proposed method introduces a series of advantages related to its intuitive use and accuracy, making the technique suitable to images with different lighting characteristics and allowing a reliable comparison between different researchers.

  3. Deep Learning and Bayesian Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prosper Harrison B.

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available A revolution is underway in which deep neural networks are routinely used to solve diffcult problems such as face recognition and natural language understanding. Particle physicists have taken notice and have started to deploy these methods, achieving results that suggest a potentially significant shift in how data might be analyzed in the not too distant future. We discuss a few recent developments in the application of deep neural networks and then indulge in speculation about how such methods might be used to automate certain aspects of data analysis in particle physics. Next, the connection to Bayesian methods is discussed and the paper ends with thoughts on a significant practical issue, namely, how, from a Bayesian perspective, one might optimize the construction of deep neural networks.

  4. Learning Bayesian network classifiers for credit scoring using Markov Chain Monte Carlo search

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baesens, B.; Egmont-Petersen, M.; Castelo, R.; Vanthienen, J.

    2001-01-01

    In this paper, we will evaluate the power and usefulness of Bayesian network classifiers for credit scoring. Various types of Bayesian network classifiers will be evaluated and contrasted including unrestricted Bayesian network classifiers learnt using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) search.

  5. Inaccurate pulse CO-oximetry of carboxyhemoglobin due to digital clubbing: case report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harlan, Nicole; Weaver, Lindell K; Deru, Kayla

    2016-01-01

    Newer pulse CO-oximeters provide a non-invasive and quick means of measuring oxyhemoglobin, carboxyhemoglobin and methemoglobin. Clubbing has been reported to cause inaccuracy in pulse oximeters. We present a case of inaccurate carboxy-hemoglobin measurement by pulse CO-oximetry due to digital clubbing. An 18-year-old man with a history of cystic fibrosis presented after a suicide attempt by inhalation of exhaust. At the initial emergency department evaluation, his blood carboxyhemoglobin was 33%. He was intubated, placed on 100% oxygen and transferred to our facility. Upon arrival, we placed three different pulse CO-oximeters on different fingers and toes. Carboxyhemoglobin levels measured by these meters ranged from 9%-11%. A venous blood gas drawn on arrival showed a carboxyhemoglobin level of 2.3% after four hours on 100% oxygen by endotracheal tube. Thirty minutes later, we checked arterial blood gas, which revealed a COHb level of 0.9%. Again, non-invasive carboxyhemoglobin measurements read 10%. The patient was treated with hyperbaric oxygen for carbon monoxide poisoning. This case suggests that non-invasive measurements of carboxyhemoglobin should be correlated with the clinic history and with an arterial or venous blood gas oximetry analysis.

  6. Auxin transport in the evolution of branching forms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrison, C Jill

    2017-07-01

    Contents 545 I. 545 II. 546 III. 546 IV. 548 V. 548 VI. 549 VII. 549 Acknowledgements 549 References 549 SUMMARY: Branching is one of the most striking aspects of land plant architecture, affecting resource acquisition and yield. Polar auxin transport by PIN proteins is a primary determinant of flowering plant branching patterns regulating both branch initiation and branch outgrowth. Several lines of experimental evidence suggest that PIN-mediated polar auxin transport is a conserved regulator of branching in vascular plant sporophytes. However, the mechanisms of branching and auxin transport and relationships between the two are not well known outside the flowering plants, and the paradigm for PIN-regulated branching in flowering plants does not fit bryophyte gametophytes. The evidence reviewed here suggests that divergent auxin transport routes contributed to the diversification of branching forms in distinct land plant lineages. © 2016 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2016 New Phytologist Trust.

  7. Branch Width and Height Influence the Incorporation of Branches into Foraging Trails and Travel Speed in Leafcutter Ants Atta cephalotes (L.) (Hymenoptera: Formicidae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freeman, B M; Chaves-Campos, J

    2016-06-01

    Fallen branches are often incorporated into Atta cephalotes (L.) foraging trails to optimize leaf tissue transport rates and economize trail maintenance. Recent studies in lowlands show laden A. cephalotes travel faster across fallen branches than on ground, but more slowly ascending or descending a branch. The latter is likely because (1) it is difficult to travel up or downhill and (2) bottlenecks occur when branches are narrower than preceding trail. Hence, both branch height and width should determine whether branches decrease net travel times, but no study has evaluated it yet. Laden A. cephalotes were timed in relation to branch width and height across segments preceding, accessing, across, and departing a fallen branch in the highlands of Costa Rica. Ants traveled faster on branches than on cleared segments of trunk-trail, but accelerated when ascending or descending the branch-likely because of the absence of bottlenecks during the day in the highlands. Branch size did not affect ant speed in observed branches; the majority of which (22/24) varied from 11 to 120 mm in both height and width (average 66 mm in both cases). To determine whether ants exclude branches outside this range, ants were offered the choice between branches within this range and branches that were taller/wider than 120 mm. Ants strongly preferred the former. Our results indicate that A. cephalotes can adjust their speed to compensate for the difficulty of traveling on branch slopes. More generally, branch size should be considered when studying ant foraging efficiency.

  8. RUNX2 tandem repeats and the evolution of facial length in placental mammals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pointer Marie A

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background When simple sequence repeats are integrated into functional genes, they can potentially act as evolutionary ‘tuning knobs’, supplying abundant genetic variation with minimal risk of pleiotropic deleterious effects. The genetic basis of variation in facial shape and length represents a possible example of this phenomenon. Runt-related transcription factor 2 (RUNX2, which is involved in osteoblast differentiation, contains a functionally-important tandem repeat of glutamine and alanine amino acids. The ratio of glutamines to alanines (the QA ratio in this protein seemingly influences the regulation of bone development. Notably, in domestic breeds of dog, and in carnivorans in general, the ratio of glutamines to alanines is strongly correlated with facial length. Results In this study we examine whether this correlation holds true across placental mammals, particularly those mammals for which facial length is highly variable and related to adaptive behavior and lifestyle (e.g., primates, afrotherians, xenarthrans. We obtained relative facial length measurements and RUNX2 sequences for 41 mammalian species representing 12 orders. Using both a phylogenetic generalized least squares model and a recently-developed Bayesian comparative method, we tested for a correlation between genetic and morphometric data while controlling for phylogeny, evolutionary rates, and divergence times. Non-carnivoran taxa generally had substantially lower glutamine-alanine ratios than carnivorans (primates and xenarthrans with means of 1.34 and 1.25, respectively, compared to a mean of 3.1 for carnivorans, and we found no correlation between RUNX2 sequence and face length across placental mammals. Conclusions Results of our diverse comparative phylogenetic analyses indicate that QA ratio does not consistently correlate with face length across the 41 mammalian taxa considered. Thus, although RUNX2 might function as a ‘tuning knob’ modifying face

  9. Persistence-Based Branch Misprediction Bounds for WCET Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Puffitsch, Wolfgang

    2015-01-01

    Branch prediction is an important feature of pipelined processors to achieve high performance. However, it can lead to overly pessimistic worst-case execution time (WCET) bounds when being modeled too conservatively. This paper presents bounds on the number of branch mispredictions for local...... dynamic branch predictors. To handle interferences between branch instructions we use the notion of persistence, a concept that is also found in cache analyses. The bounds apply to branches in general, not only to branches that close a loop. Furthermore, the bounds can be easily integrated into integer...... linear programming formulations of the WCET problem. An evaluation on a number of benchmarks shows that with these bounds, dynamic branch prediction does not necessarily lead to higher WCET bounds than static prediction schemes....

  10. Testing adaptive toolbox models: a Bayesian hierarchical approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheibehenne, Benjamin; Rieskamp, Jörg; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

    2013-01-01

    Many theories of human cognition postulate that people are equipped with a repertoire of strategies to solve the tasks they face. This theoretical framework of a cognitive toolbox provides a plausible account of intra- and interindividual differences in human behavior. Unfortunately, it is often unclear how to rigorously test the toolbox framework. How can a toolbox model be quantitatively specified? How can the number of toolbox strategies be limited to prevent uncontrolled strategy sprawl? How can a toolbox model be formally tested against alternative theories? The authors show how these challenges can be met by using Bayesian inference techniques. By means of parameter recovery simulations and the analysis of empirical data across a variety of domains (i.e., judgment and decision making, children's cognitive development, function learning, and perceptual categorization), the authors illustrate how Bayesian inference techniques allow toolbox models to be quantitatively specified, strategy sprawl to be contained, and toolbox models to be rigorously tested against competing theories. The authors demonstrate that their approach applies at the individual level but can also be generalized to the group level with hierarchical Bayesian procedures. The suggested Bayesian inference techniques represent a theoretical and methodological advancement for toolbox theories of cognition and behavior.

  11. Spectral analysis of the IntCal98 calibration curve: a Bayesian view

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Palonen, V.; Tikkanen, P.

    2004-01-01

    Preliminary results from a Bayesian approach to find periodicities in the IntCal98 calibration curve are given. It has been shown in the literature that the discrete Fourier transform (Schuster periodogram) corresponds to the use of an approximate Bayesian model of one harmonic frequency and Gaussian noise. Advantages of the Bayesian approach include the possibility to use models for variable, attenuated and multiple frequencies, the capability to analyze unevenly spaced data and the possibility to assess the significance and uncertainties of spectral estimates. In this work, a new Bayesian model using random walk noise to take care of the trend in the data is developed. Both Bayesian models are described and the first results of the new model are reported and compared with results from straightforward discrete-Fourier-transform and maximum-entropy-method spectral analyses

  12. Large-Scale Distributed Bayesian Matrix Factorization using Stochastic Gradient MCMC

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ahn, S.; Korattikara, A.; Liu, N.; Rajan, S.; Welling, M.

    2015-01-01

    Despite having various attractive qualities such as high prediction accuracy and the ability to quantify uncertainty and avoid ovrfitting, Bayesian Matrix Factorization has not been widely adopted because of the prohibitive cost of inference. In this paper, we propose a scalable distributed Bayesian

  13. On Bayesian Inference under Sampling from Scale Mixtures of Normals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fernández, C.; Steel, M.F.J.

    1996-01-01

    This paper considers a Bayesian analysis of the linear regression model under independent sampling from general scale mixtures of Normals.Using a common reference prior, we investigate the validity of Bayesian inference and the existence of posterior moments of the regression and precision

  14. Nonlinear and non-Gaussian Bayesian based handwriting beautification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Cao; Xiao, Jianguo; Xu, Canhui; Jia, Wenhua

    2013-03-01

    A framework is proposed in this paper to effectively and efficiently beautify handwriting by means of a novel nonlinear and non-Gaussian Bayesian algorithm. In the proposed framework, format and size of handwriting image are firstly normalized, and then typeface in computer system is applied to optimize vision effect of handwriting. The Bayesian statistics is exploited to characterize the handwriting beautification process as a Bayesian dynamic model. The model parameters to translate, rotate and scale typeface in computer system are controlled by state equation, and the matching optimization between handwriting and transformed typeface is employed by measurement equation. Finally, the new typeface, which is transformed from the original one and gains the best nonlinear and non-Gaussian optimization, is the beautification result of handwriting. Experimental results demonstrate the proposed framework provides a creative handwriting beautification methodology to improve visual acceptance.

  15. Branched-chain fatty acid biosynthesis in a branched-chain amino acid aminotransferase mutant of Staphylococcus carnosus

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beck, Hans Christian

    2005-01-01

    Fatty acid biosynthesis by a mutant strain of Staphylococcus carnosus deficient in branched-chain amino acid aminotransferase (IlvE) activity was analysed. This mutant was unable to produce the appropriate branched-chain alpha-ketoacid precursors for branched-chain fatty acid biosynthesis from...... in rich medium and growth in defined medium supplemented with 2-methylpropanoic acid lead to extensive alteration of the fatty acid composition in the cell membrane. In rich medium, a change from 51.7% to 17.1% anteiso-C15:0, and from 3.6% to 33.9% iso-C14:0 fatty acids as compared to the wild-type strain...... for 2-methylpropanoic acid production, revealing that the IlvE protein plays an important, but not essential role in the biosynthesis of branched-chain fatty acids and secondary metabolites in S. carnosus....

  16. When mechanism matters: Bayesian forecasting using models of ecological diffusion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hefley, Trevor J.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Russell, Robin E.; Walsh, Daniel P.; Powell, James A.

    2017-01-01

    Ecological diffusion is a theory that can be used to understand and forecast spatio-temporal processes such as dispersal, invasion, and the spread of disease. Hierarchical Bayesian modelling provides a framework to make statistical inference and probabilistic forecasts, using mechanistic ecological models. To illustrate, we show how hierarchical Bayesian models of ecological diffusion can be implemented for large data sets that are distributed densely across space and time. The hierarchical Bayesian approach is used to understand and forecast the growth and geographic spread in the prevalence of chronic wasting disease in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus). We compare statistical inference and forecasts from our hierarchical Bayesian model to phenomenological regression-based methods that are commonly used to analyse spatial occurrence data. The mechanistic statistical model based on ecological diffusion led to important ecological insights, obviated a commonly ignored type of collinearity, and was the most accurate method for forecasting.

  17. Bayesian network as a modelling tool for risk management in agriculture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Svend; Madsen, Anders L.; Lund, Mogens

    . In this paper we use Bayesian networks as an integrated modelling approach for representing uncertainty and analysing risk management in agriculture. It is shown how historical farm account data may be efficiently used to estimate conditional probabilities, which are the core elements in Bayesian network models....... We further show how the Bayesian network model RiBay is used for stochastic simulation of farm income, and we demonstrate how RiBay can be used to simulate risk management at the farm level. It is concluded that the key strength of a Bayesian network is the transparency of assumptions......, and that it has the ability to link uncertainty from different external sources to budget figures and to quantify risk at the farm level....

  18. The use of conflicts in searching Bayesian networks

    OpenAIRE

    Poole, David L.

    2013-01-01

    This paper discusses how conflicts (as used by the consistency-based diagnosis community) can be adapted to be used in a search-based algorithm for computing prior and posterior probabilities in discrete Bayesian Networks. This is an "anytime" algorithm, that at any stage can estimate the probabilities and give an error bound. Whereas the most popular Bayesian net algorithms exploit the structure of the network for efficiency, we exploit probability distributions for efficiency; this algorith...

  19. Bootstrap prediction and Bayesian prediction under misspecified models

    OpenAIRE

    Fushiki, Tadayoshi

    2005-01-01

    We consider a statistical prediction problem under misspecified models. In a sense, Bayesian prediction is an optimal prediction method when an assumed model is true. Bootstrap prediction is obtained by applying Breiman's `bagging' method to a plug-in prediction. Bootstrap prediction can be considered to be an approximation to the Bayesian prediction under the assumption that the model is true. However, in applications, there are frequently deviations from the assumed model. In this paper, bo...

  20. Airline Sustainability Modeling: A New Framework with Application of Bayesian Structural Equation Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hashem Salarzadeh Jenatabadi

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available There are many factors which could influence the sustainability of airlines. The main purpose of this study is to introduce a framework for a financial sustainability index and model it based on structural equation modeling (SEM with maximum likelihood and Bayesian predictors. The introduced framework includes economic performance, operational performance, cost performance, and financial performance. Based on both Bayesian SEM (Bayesian-SEM and Classical SEM (Classical-SEM, it was found that economic performance with both operational performance and cost performance are significantly related to the financial performance index. The four mathematical indices employed are root mean square error, coefficient of determination, mean absolute error, and mean absolute percentage error to compare the efficiency of Bayesian-SEM and Classical-SEM in predicting the airline financial performance. The outputs confirmed that the framework with Bayesian prediction delivered a good fit with the data, although the framework predicted with a Classical-SEM approach did not prepare a well-fitting model. The reasons for this discrepancy between Classical and Bayesian predictions, as well as the potential advantages and caveats with the application of Bayesian approach in airline sustainability studies, are debated.

  1. Subjective Bayesian Beliefs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Antoniou, Constantinos; Harrison, Glenn W.; Lau, Morten I.

    2015-01-01

    A large literature suggests that many individuals do not apply Bayes’ Rule when making decisions that depend on them correctly pooling prior information and sample data. We replicate and extend a classic experimental study of Bayesian updating from psychology, employing the methods of experimenta...... economics, with careful controls for the confounding effects of risk aversion. Our results show that risk aversion significantly alters inferences on deviations from Bayes’ Rule....

  2. Wind-Induced Reconfigurations in Flexible Branched Trees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ojo, Oluwafemi; Shoele, Kourosh

    2017-11-01

    Wind induced stresses are the major mechanical cause of failure in trees. We know that the branching mechanism has an important effect on the stress distribution and stability of a tree in the wind. Eloy in PRL 2011, showed that Leonardo da Vinci's original observation which states the total cross section of branches is conserved across branching nodes is the best configuration for resisting wind-induced fracture in rigid trees. However, prediction of the fracture risk and pattern of a tree is also a function of their reconfiguration capabilities and how they mitigate large wind-induced stresses. In this studies through developing an efficient numerical simulation of flexible branched trees, we explore the role of the tree flexibility on the optimal branching. Our results show that the probability of a tree breaking at any point depends on both the cross-section changes in the branching nodes and the level of tree flexibility. It is found that the branching mechanism based on Leonardo da Vinci's original observation leads to a uniform stress distribution over a wide range of flexibilities but the pattern changes for more flexible systems.

  3. Cortical hierarchies perform Bayesian causal inference in multisensory perception.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tim Rohe

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available To form a veridical percept of the environment, the brain needs to integrate sensory signals from a common source but segregate those from independent sources. Thus, perception inherently relies on solving the "causal inference problem." Behaviorally, humans solve this problem optimally as predicted by Bayesian Causal Inference; yet, the underlying neural mechanisms are unexplored. Combining psychophysics, Bayesian modeling, functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI, and multivariate decoding in an audiovisual spatial localization task, we demonstrate that Bayesian Causal Inference is performed by a hierarchy of multisensory processes in the human brain. At the bottom of the hierarchy, in auditory and visual areas, location is represented on the basis that the two signals are generated by independent sources (= segregation. At the next stage, in posterior intraparietal sulcus, location is estimated under the assumption that the two signals are from a common source (= forced fusion. Only at the top of the hierarchy, in anterior intraparietal sulcus, the uncertainty about the causal structure of the world is taken into account and sensory signals are combined as predicted by Bayesian Causal Inference. Characterizing the computational operations of signal interactions reveals the hierarchical nature of multisensory perception in human neocortex. It unravels how the brain accomplishes Bayesian Causal Inference, a statistical computation fundamental for perception and cognition. Our results demonstrate how the brain combines information in the face of uncertainty about the underlying causal structure of the world.

  4. Bayesian Plackett-Luce Mixture Models for Partially Ranked Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mollica, Cristina; Tardella, Luca

    2017-06-01

    The elicitation of an ordinal judgment on multiple alternatives is often required in many psychological and behavioral experiments to investigate preference/choice orientation of a specific population. The Plackett-Luce model is one of the most popular and frequently applied parametric distributions to analyze rankings of a finite set of items. The present work introduces a Bayesian finite mixture of Plackett-Luce models to account for unobserved sample heterogeneity of partially ranked data. We describe an efficient way to incorporate the latent group structure in the data augmentation approach and the derivation of existing maximum likelihood procedures as special instances of the proposed Bayesian method. Inference can be conducted with the combination of the Expectation-Maximization algorithm for maximum a posteriori estimation and the Gibbs sampling iterative procedure. We additionally investigate several Bayesian criteria for selecting the optimal mixture configuration and describe diagnostic tools for assessing the fitness of ranking distributions conditionally and unconditionally on the number of ranked items. The utility of the novel Bayesian parametric Plackett-Luce mixture for characterizing sample heterogeneity is illustrated with several applications to simulated and real preference ranked data. We compare our method with the frequentist approach and a Bayesian nonparametric mixture model both assuming the Plackett-Luce model as a mixture component. Our analysis on real datasets reveals the importance of an accurate diagnostic check for an appropriate in-depth understanding of the heterogenous nature of the partial ranking data.

  5. A comparison of Bayesian and Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis for unmeasured confounding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCandless, Lawrence C; Gustafson, Paul

    2017-08-15

    Bias from unmeasured confounding is a persistent concern in observational studies, and sensitivity analysis has been proposed as a solution. In the recent years, probabilistic sensitivity analysis using either Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis (MCSA) or Bayesian sensitivity analysis (BSA) has emerged as a practical analytic strategy when there are multiple bias parameters inputs. BSA uses Bayes theorem to formally combine evidence from the prior distribution and the data. In contrast, MCSA samples bias parameters directly from the prior distribution. Intuitively, one would think that BSA and MCSA ought to give similar results. Both methods use similar models and the same (prior) probability distributions for the bias parameters. In this paper, we illustrate the surprising finding that BSA and MCSA can give very different results. Specifically, we demonstrate that MCSA can give inaccurate uncertainty assessments (e.g. 95% intervals) that do not reflect the data's influence on uncertainty about unmeasured confounding. Using a data example from epidemiology and simulation studies, we show that certain combinations of data and prior distributions can result in dramatic prior-to-posterior changes in uncertainty about the bias parameters. This occurs because the application of Bayes theorem in a non-identifiable model can sometimes rule out certain patterns of unmeasured confounding that are not compatible with the data. Consequently, the MCSA approach may give 95% intervals that are either too wide or too narrow and that do not have 95% frequentist coverage probability. Based on our findings, we recommend that analysts use BSA for probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  6. Testing students' e-learning via Facebook through Bayesian structural equation modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salarzadeh Jenatabadi, Hashem; Moghavvemi, Sedigheh; Wan Mohamed Radzi, Che Wan Jasimah Bt; Babashamsi, Parastoo; Arashi, Mohammad

    2017-01-01

    Learning is an intentional activity, with several factors affecting students' intention to use new learning technology. Researchers have investigated technology acceptance in different contexts by developing various theories/models and testing them by a number of means. Although most theories/models developed have been examined through regression or structural equation modeling, Bayesian analysis offers more accurate data analysis results. To address this gap, the unified theory of acceptance and technology use in the context of e-learning via Facebook are re-examined in this study using Bayesian analysis. The data (S1 Data) were collected from 170 students enrolled in a business statistics course at University of Malaya, Malaysia, and tested with the maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches. The difference between the two methods' results indicates that performance expectancy and hedonic motivation are the strongest factors influencing the intention to use e-learning via Facebook. The Bayesian estimation model exhibited better data fit than the maximum likelihood estimator model. The results of the Bayesian and maximum likelihood estimator approaches are compared and the reasons for the result discrepancy are deliberated.

  7. Testing students' e-learning via Facebook through Bayesian structural equation modeling.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hashem Salarzadeh Jenatabadi

    Full Text Available Learning is an intentional activity, with several factors affecting students' intention to use new learning technology. Researchers have investigated technology acceptance in different contexts by developing various theories/models and testing them by a number of means. Although most theories/models developed have been examined through regression or structural equation modeling, Bayesian analysis offers more accurate data analysis results. To address this gap, the unified theory of acceptance and technology use in the context of e-learning via Facebook are re-examined in this study using Bayesian analysis. The data (S1 Data were collected from 170 students enrolled in a business statistics course at University of Malaya, Malaysia, and tested with the maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches. The difference between the two methods' results indicates that performance expectancy and hedonic motivation are the strongest factors influencing the intention to use e-learning via Facebook. The Bayesian estimation model exhibited better data fit than the maximum likelihood estimator model. The results of the Bayesian and maximum likelihood estimator approaches are compared and the reasons for the result discrepancy are deliberated.

  8. All change at the CERN UBS branch

    CERN Multimedia

    Antonella Del Rosso

    2012-01-01

    UBS branches across the country are being modernised, and the CERN branch is no exception. The Bulletin brings you a preview of the project, which will get under way in January 2013.   Mock-up of the renovated UBS branch. The changes at the UBS branch in CERN's Main Building will be no simple facelift. The entire bank will be renovated, transforming the present relatively confined premises into an open and attractive area. "The renovation of the UBS branches is part of a wider campaign designed to further enhance our customer relations," explains Ezio Mangia, the head of the CERN branch.  The UBS bank currently occupies three sets of premises in CERN's Main Building (two on the ground floor and one in the basement). "By the end of the work, which is scheduled to be completed by the middle of next year, CERN customers will benefit from a new area with open-plan counters and "hole-in-the-wall" machines accessible to...

  9. Estimating mental states of a depressed person with bayesian networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klein, Michel C.A.; Modena, Gabriele

    2013-01-01

    In this work in progress paper we present an approach based on Bayesian Networks to model the relationship between mental states and empirical observations in a depressed person. We encode relationships and domain expertise as a Hierarchical Bayesian Network. Mental states are represented as latent

  10. A study of finite mixture model: Bayesian approach on financial time series data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phoong, Seuk-Yen; Ismail, Mohd Tahir

    2014-07-01

    Recently, statistician have emphasized on the fitting finite mixture model by using Bayesian method. Finite mixture model is a mixture of distributions in modeling a statistical distribution meanwhile Bayesian method is a statistical method that use to fit the mixture model. Bayesian method is being used widely because it has asymptotic properties which provide remarkable result. In addition, Bayesian method also shows consistency characteristic which means the parameter estimates are close to the predictive distributions. In the present paper, the number of components for mixture model is studied by using Bayesian Information Criterion. Identify the number of component is important because it may lead to an invalid result. Later, the Bayesian method is utilized to fit the k-component mixture model in order to explore the relationship between rubber price and stock market price for Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines and Indonesia. Lastly, the results showed that there is a negative effect among rubber price and stock market price for all selected countries.

  11. Prebiotic branched galacto-oligosaccharides (gos)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lammerts van Bueren-Brandt, Alica; Dijkhuizen, Lubbert

    2018-01-01

    The invention relates to galacto-oligosaccharide (GOS) compositions and the use thereof. Provided is the use of a GOS composition comprising branched and linear GOS species having a degree of polymerization (DP) of 3, wherein the branched DP3 GOS species are present in excess of linear DP3 GOS

  12. Effect on Prediction when Modeling Covariates in Bayesian Nonparametric Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cruz-Marcelo, Alejandro; Rosner, Gary L; Müller, Peter; Stewart, Clinton F

    2013-04-01

    In biomedical research, it is often of interest to characterize biologic processes giving rise to observations and to make predictions of future observations. Bayesian nonparametric methods provide a means for carrying out Bayesian inference making as few assumptions about restrictive parametric models as possible. There are several proposals in the literature for extending Bayesian nonparametric models to include dependence on covariates. Limited attention, however, has been directed to the following two aspects. In this article, we examine the effect on fitting and predictive performance of incorporating covariates in a class of Bayesian nonparametric models by one of two primary ways: either in the weights or in the locations of a discrete random probability measure. We show that different strategies for incorporating continuous covariates in Bayesian nonparametric models can result in big differences when used for prediction, even though they lead to otherwise similar posterior inferences. When one needs the predictive density, as in optimal design, and this density is a mixture, it is better to make the weights depend on the covariates. We demonstrate these points via a simulated data example and in an application in which one wants to determine the optimal dose of an anticancer drug used in pediatric oncology.

  13. Branching trajectory continual integral

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maslov, V.P.; Chebotarev, A.M.

    1980-01-01

    Heuristic definition of the Feynman continual integral over branching trajectories is suggested which makes it possible to obtain in the closed form the solution of the Cauchy problem for the model Hartree equation. A number of properties of the solution is derived from an integral representation. In particular, the quasiclassical asymptotics, exact solution in the gaussian case and perturbation theory series are described. The existence theorem for the simpliest continual integral over branching trajectories is proved [ru

  14. VD-411 branch driver

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gorbunov, N.V.; Karev, A.G.; Mal'tsev, Eh.I.; Morozov, B.A.

    1985-01-01

    The VD-411 branch driver for CAMAC moduli control by the SM-4 computer is described. The driver realizes data exchange with moduli disposed in 28 crates grouped in 4 branches. Data exchange can be carried out either in the program regime or in the regime of direct access to the memory. Fulfilment of 11 block regimes and one program regime is provided for. A possibility of individual programming of exchange methods in block regimes is left for users for organisation of quicker and most flexible data removal from the CAMAC moduli. In the regime of direct access the driver provides data transmission at the size up to 64 Kwords placing it in the computer memory of 2 M byte. High rate of data transmission and the developed system of interruptions ensure efficient utilization of the VD-411 branch driver at data removal from facilities in high energy physics experiments

  15. Methods for detecting and correcting inaccurate results in inductively coupled plasma-atomic emission spectrometry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, George C. Y. [Bloomington, IN; Hieftje, Gary M [Bloomington, IN

    2010-08-03

    A method for detecting and correcting inaccurate results in inductively coupled plasma-atomic emission spectrometry (ICP-AES). ICP-AES analysis is performed across a plurality of selected locations in the plasma on an unknown sample, collecting the light intensity at one or more selected wavelengths of one or more sought-for analytes, creating a first dataset. The first dataset is then calibrated with a calibration dataset creating a calibrated first dataset curve. If the calibrated first dataset curve has a variability along the location within the plasma for a selected wavelength, errors are present. Plasma-related errors are then corrected by diluting the unknown sample and performing the same ICP-AES analysis on the diluted unknown sample creating a calibrated second dataset curve (accounting for the dilution) for the one or more sought-for analytes. The cross-over point of the calibrated dataset curves yields the corrected value (free from plasma related errors) for each sought-for analyte.

  16. Location-based Mobile Relay Selection and Impact of Inaccurate Path Loss Model Parameters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jimmy Jessen; Madsen, Tatiana Kozlova; Schwefel, Hans-Peter

    2010-01-01

    In this paper we propose a relay selection scheme which uses collected location information together with a path loss model for relay selection, and analyze the performance impact of mobility and different error causes on this scheme. Performance is evaluated in terms of bit error rate...... by simulations. The SNR measurement based relay selection scheme proposed previously is unsuitable for use with fast moving users in e.g. vehicular scenarios due to a large signaling overhead. The proposed location based scheme is shown to work well with fast moving users due to a lower signaling overhead...... in these situations. As the location-based scheme relies on a path loss model to estimate link qualities and select relays, the sensitivity with respect to inaccurate estimates of the unknown path loss model parameters is investigated. The parameter ranges that result in useful performance were found...

  17. Human vagus nerve branching in the cervical region.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Niels Hammer

    Full Text Available Vagus nerve stimulation is increasingly applied to treat epilepsy, psychiatric conditions and potentially chronic heart failure. After implanting vagus nerve electrodes to the cervical vagus nerve, side effects such as voice alterations and dyspnea or missing therapeutic effects are observed at different frequencies. Cervical vagus nerve branching might partly be responsible for these effects. However, vagus nerve branching has not yet been described in the context of vagus nerve stimulation.Branching of the cervical vagus nerve was investigated macroscopically in 35 body donors (66 cervical sides in the carotid sheath. After X-ray imaging for determining the vertebral levels of cervical vagus nerve branching, samples were removed to confirm histologically the nerve and to calculate cervical vagus nerve diameters and cross-sections.Cervical vagus nerve branching was observed in 29% of all cases (26% unilaterally, 3% bilaterally and proven histologically in all cases. Right-sided branching (22% was more common than left-sided branching (12% and occurred on the level of the fourth and fifth vertebra on the left and on the level of the second to fifth vertebra on the right side. Vagus nerves without branching were significantly larger than vagus nerves with branches, concerning their diameters (4.79 mm vs. 3.78 mm and cross-sections (7.24 mm2 vs. 5.28 mm2.Cervical vagus nerve branching is considerably more frequent than described previously. The side-dependent differences of vagus nerve branching may be linked to the asymmetric effects of the vagus nerve. Cervical vagus nerve branching should be taken into account when identifying main trunk of the vagus nerve for implanting electrodes to minimize potential side effects or lacking therapeutic benefits of vagus nerve stimulation.

  18. Bayesian posterior distributions without Markov chains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, Stephen R; Chu, Haitao; Greenland, Sander; Hamra, Ghassan; Richardson, David B

    2012-03-01

    Bayesian posterior parameter distributions are often simulated using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. However, MCMC methods are not always necessary and do not help the uninitiated understand Bayesian inference. As a bridge to understanding Bayesian inference, the authors illustrate a transparent rejection sampling method. In example 1, they illustrate rejection sampling using 36 cases and 198 controls from a case-control study (1976-1983) assessing the relation between residential exposure to magnetic fields and the development of childhood cancer. Results from rejection sampling (odds ratio (OR) = 1.69, 95% posterior interval (PI): 0.57, 5.00) were similar to MCMC results (OR = 1.69, 95% PI: 0.58, 4.95) and approximations from data-augmentation priors (OR = 1.74, 95% PI: 0.60, 5.06). In example 2, the authors apply rejection sampling to a cohort study of 315 human immunodeficiency virus seroconverters (1984-1998) to assess the relation between viral load after infection and 5-year incidence of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome, adjusting for (continuous) age at seroconversion and race. In this more complex example, rejection sampling required a notably longer run time than MCMC sampling but remained feasible and again yielded similar results. The transparency of the proposed approach comes at a price of being less broadly applicable than MCMC.

  19. Bayesian Estimation of Wave Spectra – Proper Formulation of ABIC

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Ulrik Dam

    2007-01-01

    It is possible to estimate on-site wave spectra using measured ship responses applied to Bayesian Modelling based on two prior information: the wave spectrum must be smooth both directional-wise and frequency-wise. This paper introduces two hyperparameters into Bayesian Modelling and, hence, a pr...

  20. A default Bayesian hypothesis test for correlations and partial correlations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wetzels, R.; Wagenmakers, E.J.

    2012-01-01

    We propose a default Bayesian hypothesis test for the presence of a correlation or a partial correlation. The test is a direct application of Bayesian techniques for variable selection in regression models. The test is easy to apply and yields practical advantages that the standard frequentist tests

  1. Systematic search of Bayesian statistics in the field of psychotraumatology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van de Schoot, Rens; Schalken, Naomi; Olff, Miranda

    2017-01-01

    In many different disciplines there is a recent increase in interest of Bayesian analysis. Bayesian methods implement Bayes' theorem, which states that prior beliefs are updated with data, and this process produces updated beliefs about model parameters. The prior is based on how much information we

  2. Thermoelectric effects in disordered branched nanowires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roslyak, Oleksiy; Piriatinskiy, Andrei

    2013-03-01

    We shall develop formalism of thermal and electrical transport in Si1 - x Gex and BiTe nanowires. The key feature of those nanowires is the possibility of dendrimer type branching. The branching tree can be of size comparable to the short wavelength of phonons and by far smaller than the long wavelength of conducting electrons. Hence it is expected that the branching may suppress thermal and let alone electrical conductance. We demonstrate that the morphology of branches strongly affects the electronic conductance. The effect is important to the class of materials known as thermoelectrics. The small size of the branching region makes large temperature and electrical gradients. On the other hand the smallness of the region would allow the electrical transport being ballistic. As usual for the mesoscopic systems we have to solve macroscopic (temperature) and microscopic ((electric potential, current)) equations self-consistently. Electronic conductance is studied via NEGF formalism on the irreducible electron transfer graph. We also investigate the figure of merit ZT as a measure of the suppressed electron conductance.

  3. Rationalizing method of replacement intervals by using Bayesian statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kasai, Masao; Notoya, Junichi; Kusakari, Yoshiyuki

    2007-01-01

    This study represents the formulations for rationalizing the replacement intervals of equipments and/or parts taking into account the probability density functions (PDF) of the parameters of failure distribution functions (FDF) and compares the optimized intervals by our formulations with those by conventional formulations which uses only representative values of the parameters of FDF instead of using these PDFs. The failure data are generated by Monte Carlo simulations since the real failure data can not be available for us. The PDF of PDF parameters are obtained by Bayesian method and the representative values are obtained by likelihood estimation and Bayesian method. We found that the method using PDF by Bayesian method brings longer replacement intervals than one using the representative of the parameters. (author)

  4. Bayesian Group Bridge for Bi-level Variable Selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mallick, Himel; Yi, Nengjun

    2017-06-01

    A Bayesian bi-level variable selection method (BAGB: Bayesian Analysis of Group Bridge) is developed for regularized regression and classification. This new development is motivated by grouped data, where generic variables can be divided into multiple groups, with variables in the same group being mechanistically related or statistically correlated. As an alternative to frequentist group variable selection methods, BAGB incorporates structural information among predictors through a group-wise shrinkage prior. Posterior computation proceeds via an efficient MCMC algorithm. In addition to the usual ease-of-interpretation of hierarchical linear models, the Bayesian formulation produces valid standard errors, a feature that is notably absent in the frequentist framework. Empirical evidence of the attractiveness of the method is illustrated by extensive Monte Carlo simulations and real data analysis. Finally, several extensions of this new approach are presented, providing a unified framework for bi-level variable selection in general models with flexible penalties.

  5. Development and comparison in uncertainty assessment based Bayesian modularization method in hydrological modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Lu; Xu, Chong-Yu; Engeland, Kolbjørn

    2013-04-01

    SummaryWith respect to model calibration, parameter estimation and analysis of uncertainty sources, various regression and probabilistic approaches are used in hydrological modeling. A family of Bayesian methods, which incorporates different sources of information into a single analysis through Bayes' theorem, is widely used for uncertainty assessment. However, none of these approaches can well treat the impact of high flows in hydrological modeling. This study proposes a Bayesian modularization uncertainty assessment approach in which the highest streamflow observations are treated as suspect information that should not influence the inference of the main bulk of the model parameters. This study includes a comprehensive comparison and evaluation of uncertainty assessments by our new Bayesian modularization method and standard Bayesian methods using the Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm with the daily hydrological model WASMOD. Three likelihood functions were used in combination with standard Bayesian method: the AR(1) plus Normal model independent of time (Model 1), the AR(1) plus Normal model dependent on time (Model 2) and the AR(1) plus Multi-normal model (Model 3). The results reveal that the Bayesian modularization method provides the most accurate streamflow estimates measured by the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and provide the best in uncertainty estimates for low, medium and entire flows compared to standard Bayesian methods. The study thus provides a new approach for reducing the impact of high flows on the discharge uncertainty assessment of hydrological models via Bayesian method.

  6. Heuristics as Bayesian inference under extreme priors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parpart, Paula; Jones, Matt; Love, Bradley C

    2018-05-01

    Simple heuristics are often regarded as tractable decision strategies because they ignore a great deal of information in the input data. One puzzle is why heuristics can outperform full-information models, such as linear regression, which make full use of the available information. These "less-is-more" effects, in which a relatively simpler model outperforms a more complex model, are prevalent throughout cognitive science, and are frequently argued to demonstrate an inherent advantage of simplifying computation or ignoring information. In contrast, we show at the computational level (where algorithmic restrictions are set aside) that it is never optimal to discard information. Through a formal Bayesian analysis, we prove that popular heuristics, such as tallying and take-the-best, are formally equivalent to Bayesian inference under the limit of infinitely strong priors. Varying the strength of the prior yields a continuum of Bayesian models with the heuristics at one end and ordinary regression at the other. Critically, intermediate models perform better across all our simulations, suggesting that down-weighting information with the appropriate prior is preferable to entirely ignoring it. Rather than because of their simplicity, our analyses suggest heuristics perform well because they implement strong priors that approximate the actual structure of the environment. We end by considering how new heuristics could be derived by infinitely strengthening the priors of other Bayesian models. These formal results have implications for work in psychology, machine learning and economics. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjærulff, Uffe Bro; Madsen, Anders Læsø

    Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams: A Guide to Construction and Analysis, Second Edition, provides a comprehensive guide for practitioners who wish to understand, construct, and analyze intelligent systems for decision support based on probabilistic networks. This new edition contains six new...

  8. Bud structure, position and fate generate various branching patterns along shoots of closely related Rosaceae species: a review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Evelyne eCostes

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Branching in temperate plants is closely linked to bud fates, either floral or vegetative. Here, we review how the fate of meristematic tissues contained in buds and their position along a shoot imprint specific branching patterns which differ among species. Through examples chosen in closely related species in different genera of the Rosaceae family, a panorama of patterns is apparent. Patterns depend on whether vegetative and floral buds are borne individually or together in mixed buds, develop as the shoot grows or after a rest period, and are located in axillary or terminal positions along the parent shoot. The resulting branching patterns are conserved among varieties in a given species but progressively change with the parent shoot length during plant ontogeny. They can also be modulated by agronomic and environmental conditions. The existence of various organizations in the topology and fate of meristematic tissues and their appendages in closely related species questions the between-species conservation of physiological and molecular mechanisms leading to bud outgrowth vs quiescence and to floral induction vs vegetative development.

  9. Bud structure, position and fate generate various branching patterns along shoots of closely related Rosaceae species: a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costes, Evelyne; Crespel, Laurent; Denoyes, Béatrice; Morel, Philippe; Demene, Marie-Noëlle; Lauri, Pierre-Eric; Wenden, Bénédicte

    2014-01-01

    Branching in temperate plants is closely linked to bud fates, either floral or vegetative. Here, we review how the fate of meristematic tissues contained in buds and their position along a shoot imprint specific branching patterns which differ among species. Through examples chosen in closely related species in different genera of the Rosaceae family, a panorama of patterns is apparent. Patterns depend on whether vegetative and floral buds are borne individually or together in mixed buds, develop as the shoot grows or after a rest period, and are located in axillary or terminal positions along the parent shoot. The resulting branching patterns are conserved among varieties in a given species but progressively change with the parent shoot length during plant ontogeny. They can also be modulated by agronomic and environmental conditions. The existence of various organizations in the topology and fate of meristematic tissues and their appendages in closely related species questions the between-species conservation of physiological and molecular mechanisms leading to bud outgrowth vs. quiescence and to floral induction vs. vegetative development.

  10. Using Alien Coins to Test Whether Simple Inference Is Bayesian

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassey, Peter; Hawkins, Guy E.; Donkin, Chris; Brown, Scott D.

    2016-01-01

    Reasoning and inference are well-studied aspects of basic cognition that have been explained as statistically optimal Bayesian inference. Using a simplified experimental design, we conducted quantitative comparisons between Bayesian inference and human inference at the level of individuals. In 3 experiments, with more than 13,000 participants, we…

  11. Fruiting branch K+ level affects cotton fibre elongation through osmoregulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiashuo eYang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Potassium (K deficiency in cotton plants results in reduced fibre length. As one of the primary osmotica, K+ contributes to an increase in cell turgor pressure during fibre elongation. Therefore, it is hypothesized that fibre length is affected by K deficiency through an osmotic pathway, so in 2012 and 2013, an experiment was conducted to test this hypothesis by imposing three potassium supply regimes (0, 125, 250 kg K ha-1 on a low-K-sensitive cultivar, Siza 3, and a low-K-tolerant cultivar, Simian 3. We found that fibres were longer in the later season bolls than in the earlier ones in cotton plants grown under normal growth conditions, but later season bolls showed a greater sensitivity to low-K stress, especially the low-K sensitive genotype. We also found that the maximum velocity of fibre elongation (Vmax is the parameter that best reflects the change in fibre elongation under K deficiency. This parameter mostly depends on cell turgor, so the content of the osmotically active solutes was analysed accordingly. Statistical analysis showed that K+ was the major osmotic factor affecting fibre length, and malate was likely facilitating K+ accumulation into fibres, which enabled the low-K-tolerant genotype to cope with low-K stress. Moreover, the low-K-tolerant genotype tended to have greater K+ absorptive capacities in the upper fruiting branches. Based on our findings, we suggest a fertilization scheme for Gossypium hirsutum that adds extra potash fertilizer or distributes it during the development of late season bolls to mitigate K deficiency in the second half of the growth season and to enhance fibre length in late season bolls.

  12. Applying Bayesian statistics to the study of psychological trauma: A suggestion for future research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yalch, Matthew M

    2016-03-01

    Several contemporary researchers have noted the virtues of Bayesian methods of data analysis. Although debates continue about whether conventional or Bayesian statistics is the "better" approach for researchers in general, there are reasons why Bayesian methods may be well suited to the study of psychological trauma in particular. This article describes how Bayesian statistics offers practical solutions to the problems of data non-normality, small sample size, and missing data common in research on psychological trauma. After a discussion of these problems and the effects they have on trauma research, this article explains the basic philosophical and statistical foundations of Bayesian statistics and how it provides solutions to these problems using an applied example. Results of the literature review and the accompanying example indicates the utility of Bayesian statistics in addressing problems common in trauma research. Bayesian statistics provides a set of methodological tools and a broader philosophical framework that is useful for trauma researchers. Methodological resources are also provided so that interested readers can learn more. (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  13. Full splitting of the first zero-field steps in the I-V curve of Josephson junctions of intermediate length

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hansen, J.B.; Divin, Y.Y.; Mygind, J.

    1986-01-01

    We report on the observation of full splitting of the first zero-field steps in the I-V curves of Josephson transmission lines of intermediate length Lroughly-equal(3--5)lambda/sub J/, where lambda/sub J/ is the Josephson penetration length. We study in detail how this splitting of the step into two branches depends on the temperature of the junction and on a weak applied magnetic field. We relate the splitting to excitations in the junctions whose behavior is described by the perturbed Sine-Gordon equation

  14. Is length an appropriate estimator to characterize pulmonary alveolar capillaries? A critical evaluation in the human lung

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mühlfeld, Christian; Weibel, Ewald R.; Hahn, Ute

    2010-01-01

    Stereological estimations of total capillary length have been used to characterize changes in the alveolar capillary network (ACN) during developmental processes or pathophysiological conditions. Here, we analyzed whether length estimations are appropriate to describe the 3D nature of the ACN. Semi...... resulted in a mean of 2,746 km (SD: 722 km). Because of the geometry of the ACN both approaches carry an unpredictable bias. The bias incurred by the design-based approach is proportional to the ratio between radius and length of the capillary segments in the ACN, the number of branching points...... and the winding of the capillaries. The model-based approach is biased because of the real noncylindrical shape of capillaries and the network structure. In conclusion, the estimation of the total length of capillaries in the ACN cannot be recommended as the geometry of the ACN does not fulfill the requirements...

  15. Motion Learning Based on Bayesian Program Learning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheng Meng-Zhen

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The concept of virtual human has been highly anticipated since the 1980s. By using computer technology, Human motion simulation could generate authentic visual effect, which could cheat human eyes visually. Bayesian Program Learning train one or few motion data, generate new motion data by decomposing and combining. And the generated motion will be more realistic and natural than the traditional one.In this paper, Motion learning based on Bayesian program learning allows us to quickly generate new motion data, reduce workload, improve work efficiency, reduce the cost of motion capture, and improve the reusability of data.

  16. Bayesian Inference and Online Learning in Poisson Neuronal Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Yanping; Rao, Rajesh P N

    2016-08-01

    Motivated by the growing evidence for Bayesian computation in the brain, we show how a two-layer recurrent network of Poisson neurons can perform both approximate Bayesian inference and learning for any hidden Markov model. The lower-layer sensory neurons receive noisy measurements of hidden world states. The higher-layer neurons infer a posterior distribution over world states via Bayesian inference from inputs generated by sensory neurons. We demonstrate how such a neuronal network with synaptic plasticity can implement a form of Bayesian inference similar to Monte Carlo methods such as particle filtering. Each spike in a higher-layer neuron represents a sample of a particular hidden world state. The spiking activity across the neural population approximates the posterior distribution over hidden states. In this model, variability in spiking is regarded not as a nuisance but as an integral feature that provides the variability necessary for sampling during inference. We demonstrate how the network can learn the likelihood model, as well as the transition probabilities underlying the dynamics, using a Hebbian learning rule. We present results illustrating the ability of the network to perform inference and learning for arbitrary hidden Markov models.

  17. Hierarchical Bayesian sparse image reconstruction with application to MRFM.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobigeon, Nicolas; Hero, Alfred O; Tourneret, Jean-Yves

    2009-09-01

    This paper presents a hierarchical Bayesian model to reconstruct sparse images when the observations are obtained from linear transformations and corrupted by an additive white Gaussian noise. Our hierarchical Bayes model is well suited to such naturally sparse image applications as it seamlessly accounts for properties such as sparsity and positivity of the image via appropriate Bayes priors. We propose a prior that is based on a weighted mixture of a positive exponential distribution and a mass at zero. The prior has hyperparameters that are tuned automatically by marginalization over the hierarchical Bayesian model. To overcome the complexity of the posterior distribution, a Gibbs sampling strategy is proposed. The Gibbs samples can be used to estimate the image to be recovered, e.g., by maximizing the estimated posterior distribution. In our fully Bayesian approach, the posteriors of all the parameters are available. Thus, our algorithm provides more information than other previously proposed sparse reconstruction methods that only give a point estimate. The performance of the proposed hierarchical Bayesian sparse reconstruction method is illustrated on synthetic data and real data collected from a tobacco virus sample using a prototype MRFM instrument.

  18. Bayesian inference of chemical kinetic models from proposed reactions

    KAUST Repository

    Galagali, Nikhil

    2015-02-01

    © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. Bayesian inference provides a natural framework for combining experimental data with prior knowledge to develop chemical kinetic models and quantify the associated uncertainties, not only in parameter values but also in model structure. Most existing applications of Bayesian model selection methods to chemical kinetics have been limited to comparisons among a small set of models, however. The significant computational cost of evaluating posterior model probabilities renders traditional Bayesian methods infeasible when the model space becomes large. We present a new framework for tractable Bayesian model inference and uncertainty quantification using a large number of systematically generated model hypotheses. The approach involves imposing point-mass mixture priors over rate constants and exploring the resulting posterior distribution using an adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo method. The posterior samples are used to identify plausible models, to quantify rate constant uncertainties, and to extract key diagnostic information about model structure-such as the reactions and operating pathways most strongly supported by the data. We provide numerical demonstrations of the proposed framework by inferring kinetic models for catalytic steam and dry reforming of methane using available experimental data.

  19. Development of a Data Reduction Algorithm for Optical Wide Field Patrol (OWL) II: Improving Measurement of Lengths of Detected Streaks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Sun-Youp; Choi, Jin; Roh, Dong-Goo; Park, Maru; Jo, Jung Hyun; Yim, Hong-Suh; Park, Young-Sik; Bae, Young-Ho; Park, Jang-Hyun; Moon, Hong-Kyu; Choi, Young-Jun; Cho, Sungki; Choi, Eun-Jung

    2016-09-01

    As described in the previous paper (Park et al. 2013), the detector subsystem of optical wide-field patrol (OWL) provides many observational data points of a single artificial satellite or space debris in the form of small streaks, using a chopper system and a time tagger. The position and the corresponding time data are matched assuming that the length of a streak on the CCD frame is proportional to the time duration of the exposure during which the chopper blades do not obscure the CCD window. In the previous study, however, the length was measured using the diagonal of the rectangle of the image area containing the streak; the results were quite ambiguous and inaccurate, allowing possible matching error of positions and time data. Furthermore, because only one (position, time) data point is created from one streak, the efficiency of the observation decreases. To define the length of a streak correctly, it is important to locate the endpoints of a streak. In this paper, a method using a differential convolution mask pattern is tested. This method can be used to obtain the positions where the pixel values are changed sharply. These endpoints can be regarded as directly detected positional data, and the number of data points is doubled by this result.

  20. Bi-objective branch-and-cut algorithms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gadegaard, Sune Lauth; Ehrgott, Matthias; Nielsen, Lars Relund

    Most real-world optimization problems are of a multi-objective nature, involving objectives which are conflicting and incomparable. Solving a multi-objective optimization problem requires a method which can generate the set of rational compromises between the objectives. In this paper, we propose...... are strengthened by cutting planes. In addition, we suggest an extension of the branching strategy "Pareto branching''. Extensive computational results obtained for the bi-objective single source capacitated facility location problem prove the effectiveness of the algorithms....... and compares it to an upper bound set. The implicit bound set based algorithm, on the other hand, fathoms branching nodes by generating a single point on the lower bound set for each local nadir point. We outline several approaches for fathoming branching nodes and we propose an updating scheme for the lower...

  1. Geology of the Cane Branch and Helton Branch watershed areas, McCreary County, Kentucky

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyons, Erwin J.

    1957-01-01

    Cane Branch and Helton Branch in McCreary County, Kentucky, are about 1.4 miles apart (fig. 1). Can Branch, which is about 2.1 miles long, emptied into Hughes Fork of Beaver Creek. Its watershed area of about 1.5 square miles lies largely in the Wiborf 7 1/2-minute quadrangle (SW/4 Cumberland Falls 15-minute quadrangle), but the downstream part of the area extends northward into the Hail 7 1/2-minute quadrangle (NW/4 Cumberland Falls 15-minute quadrangle). Helton Branch, which is about 1.1 miles long, has two tributaries and empties into Little Hurricane Fork of Beaver Creek. It drains an area of about 0.8 square mile of while about 0.5 square mile is in the Hail quadrangle and the remainder in the Wilborg quadrangle. The total relief in the Can Branch area is about 500 feet and in the Helton Branch area about 400 feet. Narrow, steep-sided to canyon-like valley and winding ridges, typical of the Pottsville escarpment region, are characteristic of both areas. Thick woods and dense undergrowth cover much of the two areas. Field mapping was done on U.S. Geological Survey 7 1/2-minute maps having a scale of 1:24,000 and a contour interval of 20 feet. Elevations of lithologic contacts were determined with a barometer and a hand level. Aerial photographs were used principally to trace the cliffs formed by sandstone and conglomerate ledges. Exposures, except for those of the cliff- and ledge-forming sandstone and conglomerates, are not abundant. The most complete stratigraphic sections (secs. 3 and 4, fig. 2) in the two areas are exposed in cuts of newly completed Forest Service roads, but the rick in the upper parts of the exposures is weathered. To supplement these sections, additional sections were measured in cuts along the railroad and main highways in nor near the watersheds.

  2. Interannual variations in needle and sapwood traits of Pinus edulis branches under an experimental drought.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guérin, Marceau; Martin-Benito, Dario; von Arx, Georg; Andreu-Hayles, Laia; Griffin, Kevin L; Hamdan, Rayann; McDowell, Nate G; Muscarella, Robert; Pockman, William; Gentine, Pierre

    2018-02-01

    In the southwestern USA, recent large-scale die-offs of conifers raise the question of their resilience and mortality under droughts. To date, little is known about the interannual structural response to droughts. We hypothesized that piñon pines ( Pinus edulis ) respond to drought by reducing the drop of leaf water potential in branches from year to year through needle morphological adjustments. We tested our hypothesis using a 7-year experiment in central New Mexico with three watering treatments (irrigated, normal, and rain exclusion). We analyzed how variation in "evaporative structure" (needle length, stomatal diameter, stomatal density, stomatal conductance) responded to watering treatment and interannual climate variability. We further analyzed annual functional adjustments by comparing yearly addition of needle area (LA) with yearly addition of sapwood area (SA) and distance to tip ( d ), defining the yearly ratios SA:LA and SA:LA/ d . Needle length ( l ) increased with increasing winter and monsoon water supply, and showed more interannual variability when the soil was drier. Stomatal density increased with dryness, while stomatal diameter was reduced. As a result, anatomical maximal stomatal conductance was relatively invariant across treatments. SA:LA and SA:LA/ d showed significant differences across treatments and contrary to our expectation were lower with reduced water input. Within average precipitation ranges, the response of these ratios to soil moisture was similar across treatments. However, when extreme soil drought was combined with high VPD, needle length, SA:LA and SA:LA/ d became highly nonlinear, emphasizing the existence of a response threshold of combined high VPD and dry soil conditions. In new branch tissues, the response of annual functional ratios to water stress was immediate (same year) and does not attempt to reduce the drop of water potential. We suggest that unfavorable evaporative structural response to drought is compensated

  3. Bayesian detection of causal rare variants under posterior consistency.

    KAUST Repository

    Liang, Faming

    2013-07-26

    Identification of causal rare variants that are associated with complex traits poses a central challenge on genome-wide association studies. However, most current research focuses only on testing the global association whether the rare variants in a given genomic region are collectively associated with the trait. Although some recent work, e.g., the Bayesian risk index method, have tried to address this problem, it is unclear whether the causal rare variants can be consistently identified by them in the small-n-large-P situation. We develop a new Bayesian method, the so-called Bayesian Rare Variant Detector (BRVD), to tackle this problem. The new method simultaneously addresses two issues: (i) (Global association test) Are there any of the variants associated with the disease, and (ii) (Causal variant detection) Which variants, if any, are driving the association. The BRVD ensures the causal rare variants to be consistently identified in the small-n-large-P situation by imposing some appropriate prior distributions on the model and model specific parameters. The numerical results indicate that the BRVD is more powerful for testing the global association than the existing methods, such as the combined multivariate and collapsing test, weighted sum statistic test, RARECOVER, sequence kernel association test, and Bayesian risk index, and also more powerful for identification of causal rare variants than the Bayesian risk index method. The BRVD has also been successfully applied to the Early-Onset Myocardial Infarction (EOMI) Exome Sequence Data. It identified a few causal rare variants that have been verified in the literature.

  4. Bayesian detection of causal rare variants under posterior consistency.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Faming Liang

    Full Text Available Identification of causal rare variants that are associated with complex traits poses a central challenge on genome-wide association studies. However, most current research focuses only on testing the global association whether the rare variants in a given genomic region are collectively associated with the trait. Although some recent work, e.g., the Bayesian risk index method, have tried to address this problem, it is unclear whether the causal rare variants can be consistently identified by them in the small-n-large-P situation. We develop a new Bayesian method, the so-called Bayesian Rare Variant Detector (BRVD, to tackle this problem. The new method simultaneously addresses two issues: (i (Global association test Are there any of the variants associated with the disease, and (ii (Causal variant detection Which variants, if any, are driving the association. The BRVD ensures the causal rare variants to be consistently identified in the small-n-large-P situation by imposing some appropriate prior distributions on the model and model specific parameters. The numerical results indicate that the BRVD is more powerful for testing the global association than the existing methods, such as the combined multivariate and collapsing test, weighted sum statistic test, RARECOVER, sequence kernel association test, and Bayesian risk index, and also more powerful for identification of causal rare variants than the Bayesian risk index method. The BRVD has also been successfully applied to the Early-Onset Myocardial Infarction (EOMI Exome Sequence Data. It identified a few causal rare variants that have been verified in the literature.

  5. Bayesian detection of causal rare variants under posterior consistency.

    KAUST Repository

    Liang, Faming; Xiong, Momiao

    2013-01-01

    Identification of causal rare variants that are associated with complex traits poses a central challenge on genome-wide association studies. However, most current research focuses only on testing the global association whether the rare variants in a given genomic region are collectively associated with the trait. Although some recent work, e.g., the Bayesian risk index method, have tried to address this problem, it is unclear whether the causal rare variants can be consistently identified by them in the small-n-large-P situation. We develop a new Bayesian method, the so-called Bayesian Rare Variant Detector (BRVD), to tackle this problem. The new method simultaneously addresses two issues: (i) (Global association test) Are there any of the variants associated with the disease, and (ii) (Causal variant detection) Which variants, if any, are driving the association. The BRVD ensures the causal rare variants to be consistently identified in the small-n-large-P situation by imposing some appropriate prior distributions on the model and model specific parameters. The numerical results indicate that the BRVD is more powerful for testing the global association than the existing methods, such as the combined multivariate and collapsing test, weighted sum statistic test, RARECOVER, sequence kernel association test, and Bayesian risk index, and also more powerful for identification of causal rare variants than the Bayesian risk index method. The BRVD has also been successfully applied to the Early-Onset Myocardial Infarction (EOMI) Exome Sequence Data. It identified a few causal rare variants that have been verified in the literature.

  6. Bayesian Averaging is Well-Temperated

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Lars Kai

    2000-01-01

    Bayesian predictions are stochastic just like predictions of any other inference scheme that generalize from a finite sample. While a simple variational argument shows that Bayes averaging is generalization optimal given that the prior matches the teacher parameter distribution the situation is l...

  7. Differentiated Bayesian Conjoint Choice Designs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Z. Sándor (Zsolt); M. Wedel (Michel)

    2003-01-01

    textabstractPrevious conjoint choice design construction procedures have produced a single design that is administered to all subjects. This paper proposes to construct a limited set of different designs. The designs are constructed in a Bayesian fashion, taking into account prior uncertainty about

  8. Bayesian NL interpretation and learning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zeevat, H.

    2011-01-01

    Everyday natural language communication is normally successful, even though contemporary computational linguistics has shown that NL is characterised by very high degree of ambiguity and the results of stochastic methods are not good enough to explain the high success rate. Bayesian natural language

  9. 3rd Workshop on Branching Processes and their Applications

    CERN Document Server

    González, Miguel; Gutiérrez, Cristina; Martínez, Rodrigo; Minuesa, Carmen; Molina, Manuel; Mota, Manuel; Ramos, Alfonso; WBPA15

    2016-01-01

    This volume gathers papers originally presented at the 3rd Workshop on Branching Processes and their Applications (WBPA15), which was held from 7 to 10 April 2015 in Badajoz, Spain (http://branching.unex.es/wbpa15/index.htm). The papers address a broad range of theoretical and practical aspects of branching process theory. Further, they amply demonstrate that the theoretical research in this area remains vital and topical, as well as the relevance of branching concepts in the development of theoretical approaches to solving new problems in applied fields such as Epidemiology, Biology, Genetics, and, of course, Population Dynamics. The topics covered can broadly be classified into the following areas: 1. Coalescent Branching Processes 2. Branching Random Walks 3. Population Growth Models in Varying and Random Environments 4. Size/Density/Resource-Dependent Branching Models 5. Age-Dependent Branching Models 6. Special Branching Models 7. Applications in Epidemiology 8. Applications in Biology and Genetics Offer...

  10. An elementary introduction to Bayesian computing using WinBUGS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fryback, D G; Stout, N K; Rosenberg, M A

    2001-01-01

    Bayesian statistics provides effective techniques for analyzing data and translating the results to inform decision making. This paper provides an elementary tutorial overview of the WinBUGS software for performing Bayesian statistical analysis. Background information on the computational methods used by the software is provided. Two examples drawn from the field of medical decision making are presented to illustrate the features and functionality of the software.

  11. Bayesian network modeling of operator's state recognition process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hatakeyama, Naoki; Furuta, Kazuo

    2000-01-01

    Nowadays we are facing a difficult problem of establishing a good relation between humans and machines. To solve this problem, we suppose that machine system need to have a model of human behavior. In this study we model the state cognition process of a PWR plant operator as an example. We use a Bayesian network as an inference engine. We incorporate the knowledge hierarchy in the Bayesian network and confirm its validity using the example of PWR plant operator. (author)

  12. Bayesian estimation methods in metrology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cox, M.G.; Forbes, A.B.; Harris, P.M.

    2004-01-01

    In metrology -- the science of measurement -- a measurement result must be accompanied by a statement of its associated uncertainty. The degree of validity of a measurement result is determined by the validity of the uncertainty statement. In recognition of the importance of uncertainty evaluation, the International Standardization Organization in 1995 published the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement and the Guide has been widely adopted. The validity of uncertainty statements is tested in interlaboratory comparisons in which an artefact is measured by a number of laboratories and their measurement results compared. Since the introduction of the Mutual Recognition Arrangement, key comparisons are being undertaken to determine the degree of equivalence of laboratories for particular measurement tasks. In this paper, we discuss the possible development of the Guide to reflect Bayesian approaches and the evaluation of key comparison data using Bayesian estimation methods

  13. [Bayesian approach for the cost-effectiveness evaluation of healthcare technologies].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berchialla, Paola; Gregori, Dario; Brunello, Franco; Veltri, Andrea; Petrinco, Michele; Pagano, Eva

    2009-01-01

    The development of Bayesian statistical methods for the assessment of the cost-effectiveness of health care technologies is reviewed. Although many studies adopt a frequentist approach, several authors have advocated the use of Bayesian methods in health economics. Emphasis has been placed on the advantages of the Bayesian approach, which include: (i) the ability to make more intuitive and meaningful inferences; (ii) the ability to tackle complex problems, such as allowing for the inclusion of patients who generate no cost, thanks to the availability of powerful computational algorithms; (iii) the importance of a full use of quantitative and structural prior information to produce realistic inferences. Much literature comparing the cost-effectiveness of two treatments is based on the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. However, new methods are arising with the purpose of decision making. These methods are based on a net benefits approach. In the present context, the cost-effectiveness acceptability curves have been pointed out to be intrinsically Bayesian in their formulation. They plot the probability of a positive net benefit against the threshold cost of a unit increase in efficacy.A case study is presented in order to illustrate the Bayesian statistics in the cost-effectiveness analysis. Emphasis is placed on the cost-effectiveness acceptability curves. Advantages and disadvantages of the method described in this paper have been compared to frequentist methods and discussed.

  14. Numerical methods for Bayesian inference in the face of aging

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clarotti, C.A.; Villain, B.; Procaccia, H.

    1996-01-01

    In recent years, much attention has been paid to Bayesian methods for Risk Assessment. Until now, these methods have been studied from a theoretical point of view. Researchers have been mainly interested in: studying the effectiveness of Bayesian methods in handling rare events; debating about the problem of priors and other philosophical issues. An aspect central to the Bayesian approach is numerical computation because any safety/reliability problem, in a Bayesian frame, ends with a problem of numerical integration. This aspect has been neglected until now because most Risk studies assumed the Exponential model as the basic probabilistic model. The existence of conjugate priors makes numerical integration unnecessary in this case. If aging is to be taken into account, no conjugate family is available and the use of numerical integration becomes compulsory. EDF (National Board of Electricity, of France) and ENEA (National Committee for Energy, New Technologies and Environment, of Italy) jointly carried out a research program aimed at developing quadrature methods suitable for Bayesian Interference with underlying Weibull or gamma distributions. The paper will illustrate the main results achieved during the above research program and will discuss, via some sample cases, the performances of the numerical algorithms which on the appearance of stress corrosion cracking in the tubes of Steam Generators of PWR French power plants. (authors)

  15. Experiences in applying Bayesian integrative models in interdisciplinary modeling: the computational and human challenges

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kuikka, Sakari; Haapasaari, Päivi Elisabet; Helle, Inari

    2011-01-01

    We review the experience obtained in using integrative Bayesian models in interdisciplinary analysis focusing on sustainable use of marine resources and environmental management tasks. We have applied Bayesian models to both fisheries and environmental risk analysis problems. Bayesian belief...... be time consuming and research projects can be difficult to manage due to unpredictable technical problems related to parameter estimation. Biology, sociology and environmental economics have their own scientific traditions. Bayesian models are becoming traditional tools in fisheries biology, where...

  16. Non-Bayesian decision theory beliefs and desires as reasons for action

    CERN Document Server

    Peterson, Martin

    2008-01-01

    This book aims to present an account of rational choice from a non-Bayesian point of view. It provides the first non-Bayesian account of normative decision theory and includes a formal account of the framing of decision problems.

  17. Bayesian phylogeography finds its roots.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philippe Lemey

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available As a key factor in endemic and epidemic dynamics, the geographical distribution of viruses has been frequently interpreted in the light of their genetic histories. Unfortunately, inference of historical dispersal or migration patterns of viruses has mainly been restricted to model-free heuristic approaches that provide little insight into the temporal setting of the spatial dynamics. The introduction of probabilistic models of evolution, however, offers unique opportunities to engage in this statistical endeavor. Here we introduce a Bayesian framework for inference, visualization and hypothesis testing of phylogeographic history. By implementing character mapping in a Bayesian software that samples time-scaled phylogenies, we enable the reconstruction of timed viral dispersal patterns while accommodating phylogenetic uncertainty. Standard Markov model inference is extended with a stochastic search variable selection procedure that identifies the parsimonious descriptions of the diffusion process. In addition, we propose priors that can incorporate geographical sampling distributions or characterize alternative hypotheses about the spatial dynamics. To visualize the spatial and temporal information, we summarize inferences using virtual globe software. We describe how Bayesian phylogeography compares with previous parsimony analysis in the investigation of the influenza A H5N1 origin and H5N1 epidemiological linkage among sampling localities. Analysis of rabies in West African dog populations reveals how virus diffusion may enable endemic maintenance through continuous epidemic cycles. From these analyses, we conclude that our phylogeographic framework will make an important asset in molecular epidemiology that can be easily generalized to infer biogeogeography from genetic data for many organisms.

  18. Self-organization of Au–CdSe hybrid nanoflowers at different length scales via bi-functional diamine linkers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    AbouZeid, Khaled Mohamed [Virginia Commonwealth University, Department of Chemistry (United States); Mohamed, Mona Bakr [Cairo University, National Institute of Laser Enhanced Science (NILES) (Egypt); El-Shall, M. Samy, E-mail: mselshal@vcu.edu [Virginia Commonwealth University, Department of Chemistry (United States)

    2016-01-15

    This work introduces a series of molecular bridging bi-functional linkers to produce laterally self-assembled nanostructures of the Au–CdSe nanoflowers on different length scales ranging from 10 nm to 100 microns. Assembly of Au nanocrystals within amorphous CdSe rods is found in the early stages of the growth of the Au–CdSe nanoflowers. The Au–CdSe nanoflowers are formed through a one-pot low temperature (150 °C) process where CdSe clusters are adsorbed on the surface of the Au cores, and they then start to form multiple arms and branches resulting in flower-shaped hybrid nanostructures. More complex assembly at a micron length scale can be achieved by means of bi-functional capping agents with appropriate alkyl chain lengths, such as 1,12-diaminododecane.

  19. A systematic review of Bayesian articles in psychology: The last 25 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van de Schoot, Rens; Winter, Sonja D; Ryan, Oisín; Zondervan-Zwijnenburg, Mariëlle; Depaoli, Sarah

    2017-06-01

    Although the statistical tools most often used by researchers in the field of psychology over the last 25 years are based on frequentist statistics, it is often claimed that the alternative Bayesian approach to statistics is gaining in popularity. In the current article, we investigated this claim by performing the very first systematic review of Bayesian psychological articles published between 1990 and 2015 (n = 1,579). We aim to provide a thorough presentation of the role Bayesian statistics plays in psychology. This historical assessment allows us to identify trends and see how Bayesian methods have been integrated into psychological research in the context of different statistical frameworks (e.g., hypothesis testing, cognitive models, IRT, SEM, etc.). We also describe take-home messages and provide "big-picture" recommendations to the field as Bayesian statistics becomes more popular. Our review indicated that Bayesian statistics is used in a variety of contexts across subfields of psychology and related disciplines. There are many different reasons why one might choose to use Bayes (e.g., the use of priors, estimating otherwise intractable models, modeling uncertainty, etc.). We found in this review that the use of Bayes has increased and broadened in the sense that this methodology can be used in a flexible manner to tackle many different forms of questions. We hope this presentation opens the door for a larger discussion regarding the current state of Bayesian statistics, as well as future trends. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  20. Bayesian Classification of Image Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Goswami, Dibyendu; Kalkan, Sinan; Krüger, Norbert

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we describe work on Bayesian classi ers for distinguishing between homogeneous structures, textures, edges and junctions. We build semi-local classiers from hand-labeled images to distinguish between these four different kinds of structures based on the concept of intrinsic dimensi...

  1. 3-D contextual Bayesian classifiers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Rasmus

    In this paper we will consider extensions of a series of Bayesian 2-D contextual classification pocedures proposed by Owen (1984) Hjort & Mohn (1984) and Welch & Salter (1971) and Haslett (1985) to 3 spatial dimensions. It is evident that compared to classical pixelwise classification further...

  2. Coulomb branches with complex singularities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Argyres, Philip C.; Martone, Mario

    2018-06-01

    We construct 4d superconformal field theories (SCFTs) whose Coulomb branches have singular complex structures. This implies, in particular, that their Coulomb branch coordinate rings are not freely generated. Our construction also gives examples of distinct SCFTs which have identical moduli space (Coulomb, Higgs, and mixed branch) geometries. These SCFTs thus provide an interesting arena in which to test the relationship between moduli space geometries and conformal field theory data. We construct these SCFTs by gauging certain discrete global symmetries of N = 4 superYang-Mills (sYM) theories. In the simplest cases, these discrete symmetries are outer automorphisms of the sYM gauge group, and so these theories have lagrangian descriptions as N = 4 sYM theories with disconnected gauge groups.

  3. Bayesian adaptive methods for clinical trials

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Berry, Scott M

    2011-01-01

    .... One is that Bayesian approaches implemented with the majority of their informative content coming from the current data, and not any external prior informa- tion, typically have good frequentist properties (e.g...

  4. CytoBayesJ: software tools for Bayesian analysis of cytogenetic radiation dosimetry data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ainsbury, Elizabeth A; Vinnikov, Volodymyr; Puig, Pedro; Maznyk, Nataliya; Rothkamm, Kai; Lloyd, David C

    2013-08-30

    A number of authors have suggested that a Bayesian approach may be most appropriate for analysis of cytogenetic radiation dosimetry data. In the Bayesian framework, probability of an event is described in terms of previous expectations and uncertainty. Previously existing, or prior, information is used in combination with experimental results to infer probabilities or the likelihood that a hypothesis is true. It has been shown that the Bayesian approach increases both the accuracy and quality assurance of radiation dose estimates. New software entitled CytoBayesJ has been developed with the aim of bringing Bayesian analysis to cytogenetic biodosimetry laboratory practice. CytoBayesJ takes a number of Bayesian or 'Bayesian like' methods that have been proposed in the literature and presents them to the user in the form of simple user-friendly tools, including testing for the most appropriate model for distribution of chromosome aberrations and calculations of posterior probability distributions. The individual tools are described in detail and relevant examples of the use of the methods and the corresponding CytoBayesJ software tools are given. In this way, the suitability of the Bayesian approach to biological radiation dosimetry is highlighted and its wider application encouraged by providing a user-friendly software interface and manual in English and Russian. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Outcomes of fenestrated and branched endovascular repair of complex abdominal and thoracoabdominal aortic aneurysms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schanzer, Andres; Simons, Jessica P; Flahive, Julie; Durgin, Jonathan; Aiello, Francesco A; Doucet, Danielle; Steppacher, Robert; Messina, Louis M

    2017-09-01

    , 156-862), with three (3%) patients lost to follow-up. On 1-year Kaplan-Meier analysis, survival was 87%, freedom from type I or type III endoleak was 97%, target vessel patency was 92%, and freedom from aortic rupture was 100%. Average lengths of intensive care unit stay and inpatient stay were 1.4 days (standard deviation, 3.3) and 3.6 days (standard deviation, 3.6), respectively. These results show that complex aortic aneurysms can now be treated with minimally invasive fenestrated and branched endovascular repair. Endovascular technologies will likely continue to play an increasingly important role in the management of patients with complex aortic aneurysm disease. Copyright © 2017 Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Bayesian Estimation and Inference using Stochastic Hardware

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chetan Singh Thakur

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we present the implementation of two types of Bayesian inference problems to demonstrate the potential of building probabilistic algorithms in hardware using single set of building blocks with the ability to perform these computations in real time. The first implementation, referred to as the BEAST (Bayesian Estimation and Stochastic Tracker, demonstrates a simple problem where an observer uses an underlying Hidden Markov Model (HMM to track a target in one dimension. In this implementation, sensors make noisy observations of the target position at discrete time steps. The tracker learns the transition model for target movement, and the observation model for the noisy sensors, and uses these to estimate the target position by solving the Bayesian recursive equation online. We show the tracking performance of the system and demonstrate how it can learn the observation model, the transition model, and the external distractor (noise probability interfering with the observations. In the second implementation, referred to as the Bayesian INference in DAG (BIND, we show how inference can be performed in a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG using stochastic circuits. We show how these building blocks can be easily implemented using simple digital logic gates. An advantage of the stochastic electronic implementation is that it is robust to certain types of noise, which may become an issue in integrated circuit (IC technology with feature sizes in the order of tens of nanometers due to their low noise margin, the effect of high-energy cosmic rays and the low supply voltage. In our framework, the flipping of random individual bits would not affect the system performance because information is encoded in a bit stream.

  7. Bayesian Estimation and Inference Using Stochastic Electronics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thakur, Chetan Singh; Afshar, Saeed; Wang, Runchun M; Hamilton, Tara J; Tapson, Jonathan; van Schaik, André

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we present the implementation of two types of Bayesian inference problems to demonstrate the potential of building probabilistic algorithms in hardware using single set of building blocks with the ability to perform these computations in real time. The first implementation, referred to as the BEAST (Bayesian Estimation and Stochastic Tracker), demonstrates a simple problem where an observer uses an underlying Hidden Markov Model (HMM) to track a target in one dimension. In this implementation, sensors make noisy observations of the target position at discrete time steps. The tracker learns the transition model for target movement, and the observation model for the noisy sensors, and uses these to estimate the target position by solving the Bayesian recursive equation online. We show the tracking performance of the system and demonstrate how it can learn the observation model, the transition model, and the external distractor (noise) probability interfering with the observations. In the second implementation, referred to as the Bayesian INference in DAG (BIND), we show how inference can be performed in a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) using stochastic circuits. We show how these building blocks can be easily implemented using simple digital logic gates. An advantage of the stochastic electronic implementation is that it is robust to certain types of noise, which may become an issue in integrated circuit (IC) technology with feature sizes in the order of tens of nanometers due to their low noise margin, the effect of high-energy cosmic rays and the low supply voltage. In our framework, the flipping of random individual bits would not affect the system performance because information is encoded in a bit stream.

  8. Applying Bayesian Statistics to Educational Evaluation. Theoretical Paper No. 62.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brumet, Michael E.

    Bayesian statistical inference is unfamiliar to many educational evaluators. While the classical model is useful in educational research, it is not as useful in evaluation because of the need to identify solutions to practical problems based on a wide spectrum of information. The reason Bayesian analysis is effective for decision making is that it…

  9. Bayesian Inference of a Multivariate Regression Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marick S. Sinay

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We explore Bayesian inference of a multivariate linear regression model with use of a flexible prior for the covariance structure. The commonly adopted Bayesian setup involves the conjugate prior, multivariate normal distribution for the regression coefficients and inverse Wishart specification for the covariance matrix. Here we depart from this approach and propose a novel Bayesian estimator for the covariance. A multivariate normal prior for the unique elements of the matrix logarithm of the covariance matrix is considered. Such structure allows for a richer class of prior distributions for the covariance, with respect to strength of beliefs in prior location hyperparameters, as well as the added ability, to model potential correlation amongst the covariance structure. The posterior moments of all relevant parameters of interest are calculated based upon numerical results via a Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure. The Metropolis-Hastings-within-Gibbs algorithm is invoked to account for the construction of a proposal density that closely matches the shape of the target posterior distribution. As an application of the proposed technique, we investigate a multiple regression based upon the 1980 High School and Beyond Survey.

  10. Bayesian Methods for Radiation Detection and Dosimetry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peter G. Groer

    2002-01-01

    We performed work in three areas: radiation detection, external and internal radiation dosimetry. In radiation detection we developed Bayesian techniques to estimate the net activity of high and low activity radioactive samples. These techniques have the advantage that the remaining uncertainty about the net activity is described by probability densities. Graphs of the densities show the uncertainty in pictorial form. Figure 1 below demonstrates this point. We applied stochastic processes for a method to obtain Bayesian estimates of 222Rn-daughter products from observed counting rates. In external radiation dosimetry we studied and developed Bayesian methods to estimate radiation doses to an individual with radiation induced chromosome aberrations. We analyzed chromosome aberrations after exposure to gammas and neutrons and developed a method for dose-estimation after criticality accidents. The research in internal radiation dosimetry focused on parameter estimation for compartmental models from observed compartmental activities. From the estimated probability densities of the model parameters we were able to derive the densities for compartmental activities for a two compartment catenary model at different times. We also calculated the average activities and their standard deviation for a simple two compartment model

  11. Conformations and solution properties of star-branched polyelectrolytes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Borisov, O.V.; Zhulina, E.B.; Leermakers, F.A.M.; Ballauff, M.; Muller, A.H.E.

    2011-01-01

    Aqueous solutions of star-like polyelectrolytes (PEs) exhibit distinctive features that originate from the topological complexity of branched macromolecules. In a salt-free solution of branched PEs, mobile counterions preferentially localize in the intramolecular volume of branched macroions.

  12. A computational Bayesian approach to dependency assessment in system reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yontay, Petek; Pan, Rong

    2016-01-01

    Due to the increasing complexity of engineered products, it is of great importance to develop a tool to assess reliability dependencies among components and systems under the uncertainty of system reliability structure. In this paper, a Bayesian network approach is proposed for evaluating the conditional probability of failure within a complex system, using a multilevel system configuration. Coupling with Bayesian inference, the posterior distributions of these conditional probabilities can be estimated by combining failure information and expert opinions at both system and component levels. Three data scenarios are considered in this study, and they demonstrate that, with the quantification of the stochastic relationship of reliability within a system, the dependency structure in system reliability can be gradually revealed by the data collected at different system levels. - Highlights: • A Bayesian network representation of system reliability is presented. • Bayesian inference methods for assessing dependencies in system reliability are developed. • Complete and incomplete data scenarios are discussed. • The proposed approach is able to integrate reliability information from multiple sources at multiple levels of the system.

  13. Approximate Bayesian recursive estimation

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kárný, Miroslav

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 285, č. 1 (2014), s. 100-111 ISSN 0020-0255 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-13502S Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Approximate parameter estimation * Bayesian recursive estimation * Kullback–Leibler divergence * Forgetting Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 4.038, year: 2014 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2014/AS/karny-0425539.pdf

  14. BDgraph: An R Package for Bayesian Structure Learning in Graphical Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mohammadi, A.; Wit, E.C.

    2017-01-01

    Graphical models provide powerful tools to uncover complicated patterns in multivariate data and are commonly used in Bayesian statistics and machine learning. In this paper, we introduce an R package BDgraph which performs Bayesian structure learning for general undirected graphical models with

  15. Bayesian parameter estimation in probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siu, Nathan O.; Kelly, Dana L.

    1998-01-01

    Bayesian statistical methods are widely used in probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) because of their ability to provide useful estimates of model parameters when data are sparse and because the subjective probability framework, from which these methods are derived, is a natural framework to address the decision problems motivating PRA. This paper presents a tutorial on Bayesian parameter estimation especially relevant to PRA. It summarizes the philosophy behind these methods, approaches for constructing likelihood functions and prior distributions, some simple but realistic examples, and a variety of cautions and lessons regarding practical applications. References are also provided for more in-depth coverage of various topics

  16. A systematic review of Bayesian articles in psychology : The last 25 years

    OpenAIRE

    van de Schoot, Rens; Winter, Sonja; Ryan, Oisín; Zondervan - Zwijnenburg, Mariëlle; Depaoli, Sarah

    2017-01-01

    Although the statistical tools most often used by researchers in the field of psychology over the last 25 years are based on frequentist statistics, it is often claimed that the alternative Bayesian approach to statistics is gaining in popularity. In the current article, we investigated this claim by performing the very first systematic review of Bayesian psychological articles published between 1990 and 2015 (n = 1,579). We aim to provide a thorough presentation of the role Bayesian statisti...

  17. Bayesian models for astrophysical data using R, JAGS, Python, and Stan

    CERN Document Server

    Hilbe, Joseph M; Ishida, Emille E O

    2017-01-01

    This comprehensive guide to Bayesian methods in astronomy enables hands-on work by supplying complete R, JAGS, Python, and Stan code, to use directly or to adapt. It begins by examining the normal model from both frequentist and Bayesian perspectives and then progresses to a full range of Bayesian generalized linear and mixed or hierarchical models, as well as additional types of models such as ABC and INLA. The book provides code that is largely unavailable elsewhere and includes details on interpreting and evaluating Bayesian models. Initial discussions offer models in synthetic form so that readers can easily adapt them to their own data; later the models are applied to real astronomical data. The consistent focus is on hands-on modeling, analysis of data, and interpretations that address scientific questions. A must-have for astronomers, its concrete approach will also be attractive to researchers in the sciences more generally.

  18. Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods for Bayesian Data Analysis in Astronomy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Sanjib

    2017-08-01

    Markov Chain Monte Carlo based Bayesian data analysis has now become the method of choice for analyzing and interpreting data in almost all disciplines of science. In astronomy, over the last decade, we have also seen a steady increase in the number of papers that employ Monte Carlo based Bayesian analysis. New, efficient Monte Carlo based methods are continuously being developed and explored. In this review, we first explain the basics of Bayesian theory and discuss how to set up data analysis problems within this framework. Next, we provide an overview of various Monte Carlo based methods for performing Bayesian data analysis. Finally, we discuss advanced ideas that enable us to tackle complex problems and thus hold great promise for the future. We also distribute downloadable computer software (available at https://github.com/sanjibs/bmcmc/ ) that implements some of the algorithms and examples discussed here.

  19. Vere-Jones' self-similar branching model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saichev, A.; Sornette, D.

    2005-01-01

    Motivated by its potential application to earthquake statistics as well as for its intrinsic interest in the theory of branching processes, we study the exactly self-similar branching process introduced recently by Vere-Jones. This model extends the ETAS class of conditional self-excited branching point-processes of triggered seismicity by removing the problematic need for a minimum (as well as maximum) earthquake size. To make the theory convergent without the need for the usual ultraviolet and infrared cutoffs, the distribution of magnitudes m ' of daughters of first-generation of a mother of magnitude m has two branches m ' ' >m with exponent β+d, where β and d are two positive parameters. We investigate the condition and nature of the subcritical, critical, and supercritical regime in this and in an extended version interpolating smoothly between several models. We predict that the distribution of magnitudes of events triggered by a mother of magnitude m over all generations has also two branches m ' ' >m with exponent β+h, with h=d√(1-s), where s is the fraction of triggered events. This corresponds to a renormalization of the exponent d into h by the hierarchy of successive generations of triggered events. For a significant part of the parameter space, the distribution of magnitudes over a full catalog summed over an average steady flow of spontaneous sources (immigrants) reproduces the distribution of the spontaneous sources with a single branch and is blind to the exponents β,d of the distribution of triggered events. Since the distribution of earthquake magnitudes is usually obtained with catalogs including many sequences, we conclude that the two branches of the distribution of aftershocks are not directly observable and the model is compatible with real seismic catalogs. In summary, the exactly self-similar Vere-Jones model provides an attractive new approach to model triggered seismicity, which alleviates delicate questions on the role of

  20. Bayesian Sampling using Condition Indicators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Faber, Michael H.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2002-01-01

    of condition indicators introduced by Benjamin and Cornell (1970) a Bayesian approach to quality control is formulated. The formulation is then extended to the case where the quality control is based on sampling of indirect information about the condition of the components, i.e. condition indicators...