WorldWideScience

Sample records for implies warmer-than-present climate

  1. Climate change: believing and seeing implies adapting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blennow, Kristina; Persson, Johannes; Tomé, Margarida; Hanewinkel, Marc

    2012-01-01

    Knowledge of factors that trigger human response to climate change is crucial for effective climate change policy communication. Climate change has been claimed to have low salience as a risk issue because it cannot be directly experienced. Still, personal factors such as strength of belief in local effects of climate change have been shown to correlate strongly with responses to climate change and there is a growing literature on the hypothesis that personal experience of climate change (and/or its effects) explains responses to climate change. Here we provide, using survey data from 845 private forest owners operating in a wide range of bio-climatic as well as economic-social-political structures in a latitudinal gradient across Europe, the first evidence that the personal strength of belief and perception of local effects of climate change, highly significantly explain human responses to climate change. A logistic regression model was fitted to the two variables, estimating expected probabilities ranging from 0.07 (SD ± 0.01) to 0.81 (SD ± 0.03) for self-reported adaptive measures taken. Adding socio-demographic variables improved the fit, estimating expected probabilities ranging from 0.022 (SD ± 0.008) to 0.91 (SD ± 0.02). We conclude that to explain and predict adaptation to climate change, the combination of personal experience and belief must be considered.

  2. Positive climate feedback under future climate implied by multifactor experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beier, C.; van der Linden, L.; Ibrom, A.; Larsen, K. S.; Ambus, P.; Climaite Scientific Team

    2011-12-01

    Results after 2 years of a "full factor" climate change experiment in a semi natural shrubland ecosystem within the CLIMAITE project suggests that all three climate change factors warming, drought and elevated CO2 reduced the carbon sink strength of the ecosystem. In particular elevated CO2 stimulated the carbon loss from the ecosystem leading to a significant positive climate feedback. A fundamental question related to climate change concerns the overall biosphere-atmosphere feedback. Will terrestrial ecosystems mitigate climate change through increased plant derived uptake of CO2, or will they accelerate climate change through increased emission of CO2 from decomposition of organic matter? This fundamental question is key to understanding and predicting future climate change and the consequences for the globe. However, our knowledge in this field is still limited and experimental data is generally missing. The CLIMAITE experiment exposed a semi-natural Danish heathland ecosystem to elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2 - 510 ppm), warming (+1 oC), and extended summer drought (4-6 week precipitation removal) in all combinations to simulate a realistic climate scenario in Denmark in 2075. In total, the experiment provides a full-factorial design with 6 replicates of all eight combinations of D, T and CO2 and an untreated control for reference (A), i.e. N = 48. Details on the experimental setup are given by Mikkelsen et al. (2008). Generally, single factor treatments (i.e. CO2, warming or drought treatments alone) showed effects often in accordance with previous single factor studies, while, more interestingly, multifactor treatments often interacted generally leading to relatively small net effects of the full factor combined treatments relative to the control (Larsen et al., 2011). Warming and drought both reduced carbon uptake and stimulated carbon emissions slightly leading to a small and additive reduction in the carbon sink strength by these factors

  3. Observed forest sensitivity to climate implies large changes in 21st century North American forest growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charney, Noah D; Babst, Flurin; Poulter, Benjamin; Record, Sydne; Trouet, Valerie M; Frank, David; Enquist, Brian J; Evans, Margaret E K

    2016-09-01

    Predicting long-term trends in forest growth requires accurate characterisation of how the relationship between forest productivity and climatic stress varies across climatic regimes. Using a network of over two million tree-ring observations spanning North America and a space-for-time substitution methodology, we forecast climate impacts on future forest growth. We explored differing scenarios of increased water-use efficiency (WUE) due to CO2 -fertilisation, which we simulated as increased effective precipitation. In our forecasts: (1) climate change negatively impacted forest growth rates in the interior west and positively impacted forest growth along the western, southeastern and northeastern coasts; (2) shifting climate sensitivities offset positive effects of warming on high-latitude forests, leaving no evidence for continued 'boreal greening'; and (3) it took a 72% WUE enhancement to compensate for continentally averaged growth declines under RCP 8.5. Our results highlight the importance of locally adapted forest management strategies to handle regional differences in growth responses to climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  4. Deciduous forest responses to temperature, precipitation, and drought imply complex climate change impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Yingying; Wang, Xiaojing; Silander, John A

    2015-11-01

    Changes in spring and autumn phenology of temperate plants in recent decades have become iconic bio-indicators of rapid climate change. These changes have substantial ecological and economic impacts. However, autumn phenology remains surprisingly little studied. Although the effects of unfavorable environmental conditions (e.g., frost, heat, wetness, and drought) on autumn phenology have been observed for over 60 y, how these factors interact to influence autumn phenological events remain poorly understood. Using remotely sensed phenology data from 2001 to 2012, this study identified and quantified significant effects of a suite of environmental factors on the timing of fall dormancy of deciduous forest communities in New England, United States. Cold, frost, and wet conditions, and high heat-stress tended to induce earlier dormancy of deciduous forests, whereas moderate heat- and drought-stress delayed dormancy. Deciduous forests in two eco-regions showed contrasting, nonlinear responses to variation in these explanatory factors. Based on future climate projection over two periods (2041-2050 and 2090-2099), later dormancy dates were predicted in northern areas. However, in coastal areas earlier dormancy dates were predicted. Our models suggest that besides warming in climate change, changes in frost and moisture conditions as well as extreme weather events (e.g., drought- and heat-stress, and flooding), should also be considered in future predictions of autumn phenology in temperate deciduous forests. This study improves our understanding of how multiple environmental variables interact to affect autumn phenology in temperate deciduous forest ecosystems, and points the way to building more mechanistic and predictive models.

  5. Symmetry implies independence

    CERN Document Server

    Renner, R

    2007-01-01

    Given a quantum system consisting of many parts, we show that symmetry of the system's state, i.e., invariance under swappings of the subsystems, implies that almost all of its parts are virtually identical and independent of each other. This result generalises de Finetti's classical representation theorem for infinitely exchangeable sequences of random variables as well as its quantum-mechanical analogue. It has applications in various areas of physics as well as information theory and cryptography. For example, in experimental physics, one typically collects data by running a certain experiment many times, assuming that the individual runs are mutually independent. Our result can be used to justify this assumption.

  6. Reconstruction of Early Pleistocene climate in southern Australia, and implications for Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sniderman, K.; Porch, N.

    2009-12-01

    Southern Australia today experiences a winter-dominated rainfall regime, governed by the seasonal migration of the Southern Hemisphere subtropical anticyclone. The history of this rainfall seasonality regime is poorly understood, because well dated, late Neogene climate records are scarce, both in Australia and in the Southern Hemisphere more generally. However, it has been assumed that the initiation of this rainfall regime was linked to the onset of extensive Northern Hemisphere glaciation, around 2.6 Ma. Here, we use fossil beetle remains from an upland southeastern Australian palaeolake record to quantitatively reconstruct regional climate during ~280 kyr of the Early Pleistocene, between 1.84-1.56 Ma. Our results, based on coexistence of extant fossil beetle taxa, indicate that temperatures were consistently 1-3°C warmer than present, and annual rainfall as high as or higher than today, but summer rainfall was 2-2.4 times higher than today, throughout the period of our record. This is consistent with the presence in the associated pollen record of diverse rainforest plant taxa, many of which are now extinct regionally or Australia-wide. Our results indicate that the modern, winter-dominated rainfall regime was not yet in place by 1.5 Ma, at least one million years later than previously thought. In as much as the modern climate regime is a function of the intensity of atmospheric circulation driven by hemispheric temperature gradients, this implies that Southern Hemisphere anticyclonic circulation may have been much less intense than today during the Early Pleistocene, and that a major regional climate reorganisation (Ravelo et al., 2004) occurred sometime after 1.5 Ma, perhaps associated with further growth of the Antarctic cryosphere (Raymo et al., 2006).

  7. Predicting casualties implied by TIPs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trendafiloski, G.; Wyss, M.; Wyss, B. M.

    2009-12-01

    When an earthquake is predicted, forecast, or expected with a higher than normal probability, losses are implied. We estimated the casualties (fatalities plus injured) that should be expected if earthquakes in TIPs (locations of Temporarily Increased Probability of earthquakes) defined by Kossobokov et al. (2009) should occur. We classified the predictions of losses into the categories red (more than 400 fatalities or more than 1,000 injured), yellow (between 100 and 400 fatalities), green (fewer than 100 fatalities), and gray (undetermined). TIPs in Central Chile, the Philippines, Papua, and Taiwan are in the red class, TIPs in Southern Sumatra, Nicaragua, Vanatu, and Honshu in the yellow class, and TIPs in Tonga, Loyalty Islands, Vanatu, S. Sandwich Islands, Banda Sea, and the Kuriles, are classified as green. TIPs where the losses depend moderately on the assumed point of major energy release were classified as yellow; TIPs such as in the Talaud Islands and in Tonga, where the losses depend very strongly on the location of the epicenter, were classified as gray. The accuracy of loss estimates after earthquakes with known hypocenter and magnitude are affected by uncertainties in transmission and soil properties, the composition of the building stock, the population present, and the method by which the numbers of casualties are calculated. In the case of TIPs, uncertainties in magnitude and location are added, thus we calculate losses for a range of these two parameters. Therefore, our calculations can only be considered order of magnitude estimates. Nevertheless, our predictions can come to within a factor of two of the observed numbers, as in the case of the M7.6 earthquake of October 2005 in Pakistan that resulted in 85,000 fatalities (Wyss, 2005). In subduction zones, the geometrical relationship between the earthquake source capable of a great earthquake and the population is clear because there is only one major fault plane available, thus the epicentral

  8. Forecasting with Option-Implied Information

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Peter; Jacobs, Kris; Chang, Bo Young

    2013-01-01

    This chapter surveys the methods available for extracting information from option prices that can be used in forecasting. We consider option-implied volatilities, skewness, kurtosis, and densities. More generally, we discuss how any forecasting object that is a twice differentiable function...... of the future realization of the underlying risky asset price can utilize option-implied information in a well-defined manner. Going beyond the univariate option-implied density, we also consider results on option-implied covariance, correlation and beta forecasting, as well as the use of option......-implied information in cross-sectional forecasting of equity returns. We discuss how option-implied information can be adjusted for risk premia to remove biases in forecasting regressions....

  9. Option-implied measures of equity risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chang, Bo-Young; Christoffersen, Peter; Vainberg, Gregory;

    2012-01-01

    Equity risk measured by beta is of great interest to both academics and practitioners. Existing estimates of beta use historical returns. Many studies have found option-implied volatility to be a strong predictor of future realized volatility. We find that option-implied volatility and skewness a...... able to reflect sudden changes in the structure of the underlying company....

  10. Implied terms in English and Romanian law

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefan Dinu

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This study analyses the matter of implied terms from the point of view of both English and Romanian law. First, the introductory section provides a brief overview of implied terms, by defining this class of contractual clauses and by providing their general features. Second, the English law position is analysed, where it is generally recognised that a term may be implied in one of three manners, which are described in turn. An emp hasis is made on the Privy Council’s decision in Attorney General of Belize v Belize Telecom Ltd and its impact. Third, the Romanian law position is described, the starting point of the discussion being represented by the provisions of Article 1272 of the 2009 Civil Code. Fourth, the study ends by mentioning some points of comparison between the two legal systems in what concerns the approach towards implied terms.

  11. Integrating geological archives and climate models for the mid-Pliocene warm period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haywood, Alan M.; Dowsett, Harry J.; Dolan, Aisling M.

    2016-02-01

    The mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP) offers an opportunity to understand a warmer-than-present world and assess the predictive ability of numerical climate models. Environmental reconstruction and climate modelling are crucial for understanding the mPWP, and the synergy of these two, often disparate, fields has proven essential in confirming features of the past and in turn building confidence in projections of the future. The continual development of methodologies to better facilitate environmental synthesis and data/model comparison is essential, with recent work demonstrating that time-specific (time-slice) syntheses represent the next logical step in exploring climate change during the mPWP and realizing its potential as a test bed for understanding future climate change.

  12. Stringent Mitigation Policy Implied By Temperature Impacts on Economic Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, F.; Turner, D.

    2014-12-01

    Integrated assessment models (IAMs) compare the costs of greenhouse gas mitigation with damages from climate change in order to evaluate the social welfare implications of climate policy proposals and inform optimal emissions reduction trajectories. However, these models have been criticized for lacking a strong empirical basis for their damage functions, which do little to alter assumptions of sustained GDP growth, even under extreme temperature scenarios. We implement empirical estimates of temperature effects on GDP growth-rates in the Dynamic Integrated Climate and Economy (DICE) model via two pathways, total factor productivity (TFP) growth and capital depreciation. Even under optimistic adaptation assumptions, this damage specification implies that optimal climate policy involves the elimination of emissions in the near future, the stabilization of global temperature change below 2°C, and a social cost of carbon (SCC) an order of magnitude larger than previous estimates. A sensitivity analysis shows that the magnitude of growth effects, the rate of adaptation, and the dynamic interaction between damages from warming and GDP are three critical uncertainties and an important focus for future research.

  13. Sensitivity of interglacial Greenland temperature and δ18O to orbital and CO2 forcing: climate simulations and ice core data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Sjolte

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available The sensitivity of interglacial Greenland temperature to orbital and CO2 forcing is investigated using the NorthGRIP ice core data and coupled ocean-atmosphere IPSL-CM4 model simulations. These simulations were conducted in response to different interglacial orbital configurations, and to increased CO2 concentrations. These different forcings cause very distinct simulated seasonal and latitudinal temperature and water cycle changes, limiting the analogies between the last interglacial and future climate. However, the IPSL-CM4 model shows similar magnitudes of Arctic summer warming and climate feedbacks in response to 2 × CO2 and orbital forcing of the last interglacial period (126 000 yr ago. The IPSL model produces a remarkably linear relationship between top of atmosphere incoming summer solar radiation and simulated changes in summer and annual mean central Greenland temperature. This contrasts with the stable isotope record from the Greenland ice cores, showing a multi-millennial lagged response to summer insolation. During the early part of interglacials, the observed lags may be explained by ice sheet-ocean feedbacks linked with changes in ice sheet elevation and the impact of meltwater on ocean circulation, as investigated with sensitivity studies. A quantitative comparison between ice core data and climate simulations requires to explore the stability of the stable isotope – temperature relationship. Atmospheric simulations including water stable isotopes have been conducted with the LMDZiso model under different boundary conditions. This set of simulations allows to calculate a temporal Greenland isotope-temperature slope (0.3–0.4 ‰ per °C during warmer than present Arctic climates, in response to increased CO2, increased ocean temperature and orbital forcing. This temporal slope appears twice as small as the modern spatial gradient and is consistent with other ice core estimates. A preliminary comparison with other model

  14. Asset allocation using option-implied moments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bahaludin, H.; Abdullah, M. H.; Tolos, S. M.

    2017-09-01

    This study uses an option-implied distribution as the input in asset allocation. The computation of risk-neutral densities (RND) are based on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) index option and its constituents. Since the RNDs estimation does not incorporate risk premium, the conversion of RND into risk-world density (RWD) is required. The RWD is obtained through parametric calibration using the beta distributions. The mean, volatility, and covariance are then calculated to construct the portfolio. The performance of the portfolio is evaluated by using portfolio volatility and Sharpe ratio.

  15. Does implied volatility of currency futures option imply volatility of exchange rates?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Alan T.

    2007-02-01

    By investigating currency futures options, this paper provides an alternative economic implication for the result reported by Stein [Overreactions in the options market, Journal of Finance 44 (1989) 1011-1023] that long-maturity options tend to overreact to changes in the implied volatility of short-maturity options. When a GARCH process is assumed for exchange rates, a continuous-time relationship is developed. We provide evidence that implied volatilities may not be the simple average of future expected volatilities. By comparing the term-structure relationship of implied volatilities with the process of the underlying exchange rates, we find that long-maturity options are more consistent with the exchange rates process. In sum, short-maturity options overreact to the dynamics of underlying assets rather than long-maturity options overreacting to short-maturity options.

  16. Sensitivity of climate models: Comparison of simulated and observed patterns for past climates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prell, W.L.; Webb, T. III.

    1992-08-01

    Predicting the potential climatic effects of increased concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide requires the continuing development of climate models. Confidence in the predictions will be much enhanced once the models are thoroughly tested in terms of their ability to simulate climates that differ significantly from today's climate. As one index of the magnitude of past climate change, the global mean temperature increase during the past 18,000 years is similar to that predicted for carbon dioxide--doubling. Simulating the climatic changes of the past 18,000 years, as well as the warmer-than-present climate of 6000 years ago and the climate of the last interglacial, around 126,000 years ago, provides an excellent opportunity to test the models that are being used in global climate change research. During the past several years, we have used paleoclimatic data to test the accuracy of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Community Climate Model, Version 0, after changing its boundary conditions to those appropriate for past climates. We have assembled regional and near-global paleoclimatic data sets of pollen, lake level, and marine plankton data and calibrated many of the data in terms of climatic variables. We have also developed methods that permit direct quantitative comparisons between the data and model results. Our research has shown that comparing the model results with the data is an evolutionary process, because the models, the data, and the methods for comparison are continually being improved. During 1992, we have completed new modeling experiments, further analyzed previous model experiments, compiled new paleodata, made new comparisons between data and model results, and participated in workshops on paleoclimatic modeling.

  17. Sensitivity of climate models: Comparison of simulated and observed patterns for past climates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prell, W.L.; Webb, T. III; Oglesby, R.J.

    1991-10-01

    Predicting the potential climatic effects of increased concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide requires the continuing development of climate models. As one index of the magnitude of past climates change, the global mean temperature increase during the past 18,000 years is similar to that predicted for carbon dioxide doubling. Simulating the climate changes of the past 18,000 years, as well as the warmer-than-present climate of 6000 years ago and the climate of the last interglacial, around 126,000 years ago, provides an excellent opportunity to test the models that are being used in global climate change research. During the past several years, we have used paleoclimatic data to test the accuracy of the NCAR CCMO (National Center for Atmospheric Research, Community Climate Model, Version 0), after changing its boundary conditions to those appropriate for past climates. We have assembled near-global paleoclimatic data sets of pollen, lake level, and marine plankton data and calibrated many of the data in terms of climatic variables. We have also developed methods that permit direct quantitative comparisons between the data and model results. Our comparisons have shown both some of the strengths and weaknesses of the model. The research so far has shown the feasibility of our methods for comparing paleoclimatic data and model results. Our research has also shown that comparing the model results with the data is an evolutionary process, because the models, the data, and the methods for comparison are continually being improved. During 1991, we have continued our studies and this Progress Report documents the results to date. During this year, we have completed new modeling experiments, compiled new data sets, made new comparisons between data and model results, and participated in workshops on paleoclimatic modeling. 37 refs.

  18. Entropy-based implied volatility and its information content

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    X. Xiao (Xiao); C. Zhou (Chen)

    2016-01-01

    markdownabstractThis paper investigates the maximum entropy approach on estimating implied volatility. The entropy approach also allows to measure option implied skewness and kurtosis nonparametrically, and to construct confidence intervals. Simulations show that the en- tropy approach outperforms t

  19. Recent Glacier Recession – a New Source of Postglacial Treeline and Climate History in the Swedish Scandes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lisa Öberg

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Climate warming during the past century has imposed recession of glaciers and perennial snow/ice patches along the entire Swedish Scandes. On the newly exposed forefields, subfossil wood remnants are being outwashed from beneath ice and snow bodies. In Scandinavia, this kind of detrital wood is a previously unused source of postglacial vegetation and climate history. The present study reports radiocarbon dates of a set of 78 wood samples, retrieved from three main sites, high above modern treelines and stretching along the Swedish Scandes. In accord with previous studies, pine (Pinus sylvestris colonized early emerging nunataks already during the Late Glacial. Around 9600-9500 cal. yr BP a first massive wave of tree establishment, birch and pine, took place in “empty” glacier cirques. Both species grew 400-600 m above their present-ay treeline position and the summer temperatures may have been 3.5 °C warmer than present. In respons to Neoglacial cooling, treelines of both birch and pine descended until their final disappearance from the record 4400 and 5900 cal. yr BP, respectively. During the entire interval 9600 to 4400 cal. yr BP, birch prospered in a 100-150 broad belt above the uppermost pines. The recent emergence of tree remnants in the current habitats relates to the contemporary episode of climate warming, possibly unprecedented for several past millennia. It is inferred, by an anology with the past, that in a future scenario with summers 3.5 ° warmer than present, the birch treeline may rise by 600 m or so.

  20. Interactions between tectonics, climate and vegetation during the Cretaceous. A context for the diversification of Angiosperms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sepulchre, Pierre; Chaboureau, Anne-Claire; Donnadieu, Yannick; Franc, Alain; Ladant, Jean-Baptiste

    2017-04-01

    It has long been thought that the Angiosperms diversification occurred within a context of warmer-than-present and equable climate during the Cretaceous. However, during the last decade, the view of a uniformely warm Cretaceous climate has been challenged both by paleoclimate proxies and numerical simulations. Among the processes likely affecting climate during this time, atmospheric pCO2 and tectonics appear to be pivotal to drive temperature and precipitation changes, while the feedbacks from vegetation cover changes on the hydrological cycles remain to be explored. Here we attempt to provide a review of the main studies exploring climate-vegetation interactions during the Cretaceous. Then we present climate simulations aiming at quantifying the impact of landmasses redistribution on climate and vegetation distribution from 225 Ma to 70 Ma. In our simulations, the Pangea breakup triggers the decrease of arid belts from the Triassic to the Cretaceous and a subsequent onset of humid conditions during the late Cretaceous. Positioning angiosperm-bearing fossil sites on our paleo-bioclimatic maps confirm that the rise of flowering plants occured within a context of changing climate. With additional simulations in which we modified physiological parameterizations of the vegetation, we explore the combined impact of paleogeography and shift to angiosperms-dominated land surfaces on climate at the regional and global scales. This gives us the opportunity to test earlier ideas that the angiosperms takeover could have benefited from a positive feedback induced by their particular transpiration capacities.

  1. Analysis of Federal Subsidies: Implied Price of Carbon

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    D. Craig Cooper; Thomas Foulke

    2010-10-01

    For informed climate change policy, it is important for decision makers to be able to assess how the costs and benefits of federal energy subsidies are distributed and to be able to have some measure to compare them. One way to do this is to evaluate the implied price of carbon (IPC) for a federal subsidy, or set of subsidies; where the IPC is the cost of the subsidy to the U.S. Treasury divided by the emissions reductions it generated. Subsidies with lower IPC are more cost effective at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, while subsidies with a negative IPC act to increase emissions. While simple in concept, the IPC is difficult to calculate in practice. Calculation of the IPC requires knowledge of (i) the amount of energy associated with the subsidy, (ii) the amount and type of energy that would have been produced in the absence of the subsidy, and (iii) the greenhouse gas emissions associated with both the subsidized energy and the potential replacement energy. These pieces of information are not consistently available for federal subsidies, and there is considerable uncertainty in cases where the information is available. Thus, exact values for the IPC based upon fully consistent standards cannot be calculated with available data. However, it is possible to estimate a range of potential values sufficient for initial comparisons. This study has employed a range of methods to generate “first order” estimates for the IPC of a range of federal subsidies using static methods that do not account for the dynamics of supply and demand. The study demonstrates that, while the IPC value depends upon how the inquiry is framed and the IPC cannot be calculated in a “one size fits all” manner, IPC calculations can provide a valuable perspective for climate policy analysis. IPC values are most useful when calculated within the perspective of a case study, with the method and parameters of the calculation determined by the case. The IPC of different policy measures can

  2. Sensitivity of climate models: Comparison of simulated and observed patterns for past climates. Progress report, February 1, 1994--January 31, 1995

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kutzbach, J.; Oglesby, R.J.; Prell, W.L.; Webb, T. III

    1994-10-01

    General circulation models of the atmosphere and oceans are key to the predicition of the potential climate changes that may be induced by increased concentrations of greenhouse gases. Confidence in the predictions of these models can be gained by testing of these models in their ability to simulate past climates. Estimates of global mean temperature change show that the magnitude of warming since the last glacial maximum 21,000 calendar years ago match the magnitude of warming currently being predicted for the doubling of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Simulations of the climatic changes for the past 21,000 years as well as for warmer-than-present climates at 6000 and 125,000 years ago provide an excellent opportunity to test the models that are being used in global climate change research. Recognition of this opportunity has been central to our DOE research for the past decade and is now central to PMIP (Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project) to which our research is contributing.

  3. Sensitivity of climate models: Comparison of simulated and observed patterns for past climates. Progress report, February 1, 1992--January 31, 1993

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prell, W.L.; Webb, T. III

    1992-08-01

    Predicting the potential climatic effects of increased concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide requires the continuing development of climate models. Confidence in the predictions will be much enhanced once the models are thoroughly tested in terms of their ability to simulate climates that differ significantly from today`s climate. As one index of the magnitude of past climate change, the global mean temperature increase during the past 18,000 years is similar to that predicted for carbon dioxide--doubling. Simulating the climatic changes of the past 18,000 years, as well as the warmer-than-present climate of 6000 years ago and the climate of the last interglacial, around 126,000 years ago, provides an excellent opportunity to test the models that are being used in global climate change research. During the past several years, we have used paleoclimatic data to test the accuracy of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Community Climate Model, Version 0, after changing its boundary conditions to those appropriate for past climates. We have assembled regional and near-global paleoclimatic data sets of pollen, lake level, and marine plankton data and calibrated many of the data in terms of climatic variables. We have also developed methods that permit direct quantitative comparisons between the data and model results. Our research has shown that comparing the model results with the data is an evolutionary process, because the models, the data, and the methods for comparison are continually being improved. During 1992, we have completed new modeling experiments, further analyzed previous model experiments, compiled new paleodata, made new comparisons between data and model results, and participated in workshops on paleoclimatic modeling.

  4. Electrodermal responses to implied versus actual violence on television.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalamas, A D; Gruber, M L

    1998-01-01

    The electrodermal response (EDR) of children watching a violent show was measured. Particular attention was paid to the type of violence (actual or implied) that prompted an EDR. In addition, the impact of the auditory component (sounds associated with violence) of the show was evaluated. Implied violent stimuli, such as the villain's face, elicited the strongest EDR. The elements that elicited the weakest responses were the actual violent stimuli, such as stabbing. The background noise and voices of the sound track enhanced the total number of EDRs. The results suggest that implied violence may elicit more fear (as measured by EDRs) than actual violence does and that sounds alone contribute significantly to the emotional response to television violence. One should not, therefore, categorically assume that a show with mostly actual violence evokes less fear than one with mostly implied violence.

  5. Quantum mechanics, by itself, implies perception of a classical world

    CERN Document Server

    Blood, Casey

    2010-01-01

    Quantum mechanics, although highly successful, has two peculiarities. First, in many situations it gives more than one potential version of reality. And second, the wave function for a macroscopic object such as a baseball can be spread out over a macroscopic distance. In the first, quantum mechanics seems to imply that the observer will perceive more than one version of reality and in the second it seems to imply we should see spread-out, blurred objects instead of sharply delineated baseballs. But neither implication is true. Quantum mechanics, by itself, implies more than one version of reality will never be reportably perceived, and it implies the perceived position of a baseball will always be sharply defined. Further, two observers will never disagree on what they perceive. Thus quantum mechanics, by itself, with no assumption of particles or collapse, always leads to the perception of a classical-appearing universe.

  6. An Improved Estimator For Black-Scholes-Merton Implied Volatility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    W.G.P.M. Hallerbach (Winfried)

    2004-01-01

    textabstractWe derive an estimator for Black-Scholes-Merton implied volatility that, when compared to the familiar Corrado & Miller [JBaF, 1996] estimator, has substantially higher approximation accuracy and extends over a wider region of moneyness.

  7. Implied volatility transmissions between Thai and selected advanced stock markets

    OpenAIRE

    Thakolsri, Supachok; Sethapramote, Yuthana; Jiranyakul, Komain

    2015-01-01

    This paper investigates the impacts of changes in the U. S. implied volatility on the changes in implied volatilities of the Euro and Thai stock markets. For that purpose, volatilities implicit in stock index option prices from the U. S., Euro and Thai stock markets are analyzed using the standard Granger causality test, impulse response analysis, and variance decompositions. The results found in this study suggest that the U. S. stock market is the leading source of volatility transmissions ...

  8. The Forecast Performance of Competing Implied Volatility Measures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tsiaras, Leonidas

    volatility (CIV) measures are explored. For all pair-wise comparisons, it is found that a CIV measure that is closely related to the model-free implied volatility, nearly always delivers the most accurate forecasts for the majority of the firms. This finding remains consistent for different forecast horizons...

  9. Temporal characteristics of neuronal sources for implied motion perception

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lorteije, J.A.M.; Kenemans, J.L.; Jellema, T.; Lubbe, R.H.J. van der; Heer, F. de; Wezel, R.J.A. van

    2004-01-01

    Viewing photographs of objects in motion evokes higher fMRI activation in human MT+ than similar photographs without this implied motion. MT+ is traditionally considered to be involved in motion perception. Therefore, this finding suggests feedback from object-recognition areas to MT+. To investigat

  10. Implied Movement in Static Images Reveals Biological Timing Processing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco Carlos Nather

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Visual perception is adapted toward a better understanding of our own movements than those of non-conspecifics. The present study determined whether time perception is affected by pictures of different species by considering the evolutionary scale. Static (“S” and implied movement (“M” images of a dog, cheetah, chimpanzee, and man were presented to undergraduate students. S and M images of the same species were presented in random order or one after the other (S-M or M-S for two groups of participants. Movement, Velocity, and Arousal semantic scales were used to characterize some properties of the images. Implied movement affected time perception, in which M images were overestimated. The results are discussed in terms of visual motion perception related to biological timing processing that could be established early in terms of the adaptation of humankind to the environment.

  11. The Universal Kolyvagin Recursion Implies the Kolyvagin Recursion

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yi OUYANG

    2007-01-01

    Let (u)z be the universal norm distribution and M a fixed power of prime p. By using the double complex method employed by Anderson, we study the universal Kolyvagin recursion occurring in the canonical basis in the cohomology group H0(Gz,(u)z/M(u)z). We furthermore show that the universal Kolyvagin recursion implies the Kolyvagin recursion in the theory of Euler systems. One certainly hopes this could lead to a new way to find new Euler systems.

  12. Reconstructing the Climate and Ecology of an Arctic Pliocene Forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rybczynski, N.; Ballantyne, A.; Csank, A.; Matheus, P.

    2006-12-01

    Instrumental records reveal that the current rate of arctic warming greatly exceeds mean global warming. However, arctic temperatures during the Pliocene were considerably warmer than present, making it an excellent time period for investigating potential consequences of current warming trends. Pliocene-aged (4 to 5 Ma) peat deposits from Ellesmere Island are characterized by a remarkable fossil assemblage including 15 vertebrate taxa, 90 plant taxa and 101 invertebrate taxa. Among the fossils are well-preserved samples of an extinct larch (Larix groenlandii), which have been exploited as an archive of paleoclimatic information. Analysis of annual ring widths and oxygen isotopes suggest that Pliocene temperatures were 14.2 ° C warmer than today (-5.5 \\mp 1.9 ° C). Furthermore, temporal patterns in isotopic variability suggest that modes of variability that dominate modern arctic climates, such as the NAO, were also operating during the Pliocene. Isotopic analysis of fossil bone material may provide insight into the structure of past arctic ecosystems. Preliminary data suggest that carbon and nitrogen isotopes extracted from the collagen of fossil bone may provide a powerful new tool for investigating the response of arctic ecosystems to previously warm intervals in Earth's History.

  13. Severe environmental effects of Chicxulub impact imply key role in end-Cretaceous mass extinction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brugger, Julia; Feulner, Georg; Petri, Stefan

    2017-04-01

    66 million years ago, during the most recent of the five severe mass extinctions in Earth's history, non-avian dinosaurs and many other organisms became extinct. The cause of this end-Cretaceous mass extinction is seen in either flood-basalt eruptions or an asteroid impact. Modeling the climatic changes after the Chicxulub asteroid impact allow to assess its contribution to the extinction event and to analyze the short-term and long-term response of the climate and the biosphere to the impact. Existing studies either investigated the effect of dust, which is now believed to play a minor role, or used one-dimensional, non-coupled models. In contrast, we use a coupled climate model to explore the longer lasting cooling due to sulfate aerosols. Based on data from geophysical impact modeling, we set up simulations with different stratospheric residence times for sulfate aerosols. Depending on this residence time, global surface air temperature decreased by at least 26°C, with 3 to 16 years subfreezing temperatures and a recovery time larger than 30 years. Vigorous ocean mixing, caused by the fast cooling of the surface ocean, might have perturbed marine ecosystems by the upwelling of nutrients. The dramatic climatic changes seen in our simulations imply severe environmental effects and therefore a significant contribution of the impact in the end-Cretaceous mass extinction.

  14. Criminality and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Rob

    2016-08-01

    The impacts of climate change imply a reconceptualization of environment-related criminality. Criminology can offer insight into the definitions and dynamics of this behaviour, and outline potential areas of redress.

  15. Faster than light motion does not imply time travel

    CERN Document Server

    Andréka, H; Németi, I; Stannett, M; Székely, G

    2014-01-01

    Seeing the many examples in the literature of causality violations based on faster-than- light (FTL) signals one naturally thinks that FTL motion leads inevitably to the possibility of time travel. We show that this logical inference is invalid by demonstrating a model, based on (3+1)-dimensional Minkowski spacetime, in which FTL motion is permitted (in every direction without any limitation on speed) yet which does not admit time travel. Moreover, the Principle of Relativity is true in this model in the sense that all observers are equivalent. In short, FTL motion does not imply time travel after all.

  16. Reconstructing terrestrial climate in the Pliocene Arctic: reading the record from ancient trees. (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Csank, A. Z.

    2013-12-01

    With an increasing number of studies highlighting Pliocene climate as an analogue for future warmth, the need for accurate proxy records for this period is crucial. In order to better investigate Pliocene climate as an analogue for future warmth a better understanding of the natural inter-annual variability during the Pliocene is needed. Dispersed throughout the Arctic are incredibly well-preserved fossil forest sites. Tree ring studies have vastly improved our knowledge of past climate variability and isotopic records developed from tree rings can enhance traditional ring width proxy records. Presented here are the results of work to develop annually resolved records of Pliocene climate from several Arctic fossil forest sites ranging in age from 3.8 to 2.8 million years old. Findings indicate that growing season temperatures were 10-14° C warmer than at present with an interannual range of variability of ~5° C and mean annual temperatures (MAT) 17-19° C warmer than present with interannual variability of ~2° C. The greater difference from modern in MAT could indicate that Pliocene winter temperatures were considerably warmer than summer temperatures. Late Pliocene temperatures are not significantly cooler than early Pliocene temperatures suggesting that that forest deposits in the Arctic capture a snapshot of interglacial conditions during the Pliocene. The >200 year long records produced from these fossil forest sites indicates that there is evidence for decadal scale climate variability in Pliocene climate suggesting that perhaps modes of climate variability like the Northern Annular Mode may have been present during the Pliocene. Studies of decadal variability in a past warmer world may be useful to inform how these modes of variability may behave in the future or to inform us on how these modes of variability may have been similar or different during the Pliocene. Ongoing work will provide information on seasonal climate during the Pliocene.

  17. Spectroscopic determination of masses (and implied ages) for red giants

    CERN Document Server

    Ness, M; Rix, H-W; Martig, M; Pinsonneault, Marc H; Ho, A Y Q

    2015-01-01

    The mass of a star is arguably its most fundamental parameter. For red giant stars, tracers luminous enough to be observed across the Galaxy, mass implies a stellar evolution age. It has proven to be extremely difficult to infer ages and masses directly from red giant spectra using existing methods. From the KEPLER and APOGEE surveys, samples of several thousand stars exist with high-quality spectra and asteroseismic masses. Here we show that from these data we can build a data-driven spectral model using The Cannon, which can determine stellar masses to $\\sim$ 0.07 dex from APOGEE DR12 spectra of red giants; these imply age estimates accurate to $\\sim$ 0.2 dex (40 percent). We show that The Cannon constrains these ages foremost from spectral regions with CN absorption lines, elements whose surface abundances reflect mass-dependent dredge-up. We deliver an unprecedented catalog of 80,000 giants (including 20,000 red-clump stars) with mass and age estimates, spanning the entire disk (from the Galactic center t...

  18. Radiative transfer in CO2-rich atmospheres: 1. Collisional line mixing implies a colder early Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozak, N.; Aharonson, O.; Halevy, I.

    2016-06-01

    Fast and accurate radiative transfer methods are essential for modeling CO2-rich atmospheres, relevant to the climate of early Earth and Mars, present-day Venus, and some exoplanets. Although such models already exist, their accuracy may be improved as better theoretical and experimental constraints become available. Here we develop a unidimensional radiative transfer code for CO2-rich atmospheres, using the correlated k approach and with a focus on modeling early Mars. Our model differs from existing models in that it includes the effects of CO2 collisional line mixing in the calculation of the line-by-line absorption coefficients. Inclusion of these effects results in model atmospheres that are more transparent to infrared radiation and, therefore, in colder surface temperatures at radiative-convective equilibrium, compared with results of previous studies. Inclusion of water vapor in the model atmosphere results in negligible warming due to the low atmospheric temperatures under a weaker early Sun, which translate into climatically unimportant concentrations of water vapor. Overall, the results imply that sustained warmth on early Mars would not have been possible with an atmosphere containing only CO2 and water vapor, suggesting that other components of the early Martian climate system are missing from current models or that warm conditions were not long lived.

  19. Implied motion language can influence visual spatial memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vinson, David W; Engelen, Jan; Zwaan, Rolf A; Matlock, Teenie; Dale, Rick

    2017-03-15

    How do language and vision interact? Specifically, what impact can language have on visual processing, especially related to spatial memory? What are typically considered errors in visual processing, such as remembering the location of an object to be farther along its motion trajectory than it actually is, can be explained as perceptual achievements that are driven by our ability to anticipate future events. In two experiments, we tested whether the prior presentation of motion language influences visual spatial memory in ways that afford greater perceptual prediction. Experiment 1 showed that motion language influenced judgments for the spatial memory of an object beyond the known effects of implied motion present in the image itself. Experiment 2 replicated this finding. Our findings support a theory of perception as prediction.

  20. Popescu-Rohrlich correlations imply efficient instantaneous nonlocal quantum computation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broadbent, Anne

    2016-08-01

    In instantaneous nonlocal quantum computation, two parties cooperate in order to perform a quantum computation on their joint inputs, while being restricted to a single round of simultaneous communication. Previous results showed that instantaneous nonlocal quantum computation is possible, at the cost of an exponential amount of prior shared entanglement (in the size of the input). Here, we show that a linear amount of entanglement suffices, (in the size of the computation), as long as the parties share nonlocal correlations as given by the Popescu-Rohrlich box. This means that communication is not required for efficient instantaneous nonlocal quantum computation. Exploiting the well-known relation to position-based cryptography, our result also implies the impossibility of secure position-based cryptography against adversaries with nonsignaling correlations. Furthermore, our construction establishes a quantum analog of the classical communication complexity collapse under nonsignaling correlations.

  1. Does China's Huge External Surplus Imply an Undervalued Renminbi?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Anthony J. Makin

    2007-01-01

    A pegged exchange rate regime has been pivotal to China's export-led development strategy. However, its huge trade surpluses and massive build up of international reserves have been matched by large deficits for major trading partners, creating acute policy concerns abroad, especially in the USA. This paper provides a straightforward conceptual framework for interpreting the effect of China's exchange rate policy on its own trade balance and that of trading partners in the context of discrepant economic growth rates. It shows how pegging the exchange rate when output is outstripping expenditure induces China's trade surpluses and counterpart deficits for its trading partners. An important corollary is that given its strictly regulated capital account, China's persistently large surpluses imply a significantly undervalued renminbi, which should gradually become more flexible.

  2. Interannual variability of carbon cycle implied by a 2-D atmospheric transport model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Can; XU Li; SHAO Min; ZHANG Ren-jian

    2004-01-01

    A 2-dimensional atmospheric transport model is deployed in a simplified CO2 inverse study. Calculated carbon flux distribution for the interval from 1981 to 1997 confirms the existence of a terrestrial carbon sink in mid-high latitude area of North Hemisphere. Strong interannual variability exists in carbon flux patterns, implying a possible link with ENSO and other natural episodes such as Pinatubo volcano eruption in 1991. Mechanism of this possible link was investigated with statistic method. Correlation analysis indicated that in North Hemisphere, climatic factors such as temperature and precipitation, to some extend, could influence the carbon cycle process of land and ocean, thus cause considerable change in carbon flux distribution. In addition, correlation study also demonstrated the possible important role of Asian terrestrial ecosystems in carbon cycle.

  3. IMPLIED-IN-PRICES EXPECTATIONS: THEIR ROLE IN ARBITRAGE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergei A. Ivanov

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Real prices are created on markets by supply and demand and they do not have to follow some distributions or have some properties, which we often assume. However, prices have to follow some rules in order to make arbitrage impossible. Existence of arbitrage opportunities means existence of inefficiency. Prices always contain expectations about future. Constraints on such expectations and arbitrage mechanisms were investigated with minimum assumptions about price processes (e.g. real prices do not have to be martingales. It was shown that found constraints could be easily failed in some widespread conditions. Fluctuating risk-free interest rates creates excess amount of asset in comparison with case when they are constant. This property allows arbitrage and making risk-free profit. This possibility is hard to use. However, in theory it exists almost on every market. Interest rate is implied in almost every price. The possibility exists where there is uncertainty about future. This leads to assumption that there is very fundamental inefficiency, which potentially is able to change markets dramatically.

  4. Semiotic processes implied in the High Dilution phenomena

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gheorghe Jurj

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Semiotic processes ( or semiosis refer to those process which are carriers of meaning and are performed through signs. A sign is something that stands for something else, and is the main mediating factor between an object and an interpreter, able to connect them and give rise to significations. The semiotic perspective, according to Charles Sanders Peirce, is basically triadic: all aspects of reality are triadic, comprising the categories of Firstness, Secondness, and Thirdness in a continue and virtually infinite process of semiosis, i.e of various forms of giving rise to meanings that accordingly will generate reactions, actions and transformations. The aim of the present paper is to examine the possible levels of semiosis implied in the high dilution phenomenon, beginning with the process of so called “potency” of substrata (where every potency may be considered a sign for the next one and arriving to the complex responses of the living bodies to infinitesimal signs.

  5. Neogene origins and implied warmth tolerance of Amazon tree species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dick, Christopher W; Lewis, Simon L; Maslin, Mark; Bermingham, Eldredge

    2012-01-01

    Tropical rain forest has been a persistent feature in South America for at least 55 million years. The future of the contemporary Amazon forest is uncertain, however, as the region is entering conditions with no past analogue, combining rapidly increasing air temperatures, high atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, possible extreme droughts, and extensive removal and modification by humans. Given the long-term Cenozoic cooling trend, it is unknown whether Amazon forests can tolerate air temperature increases, with suggestions that lowland forests lack warm-adapted taxa, leading to inevitable species losses. In response to this uncertainty, we posit a simple hypothesis: the older the age of a species prior to the Pleistocene, the warmer the climate it has previously survived, with Pliocene (2.6-5 Ma) and late-Miocene (8-10 Ma) air temperature across Amazonia being similar to 2100 temperature projections under low and high carbon emission scenarios, respectively. Using comparative phylogeographic analyses, we show that 9 of 12 widespread Amazon tree species have Pliocene or earlier lineages (>2.6 Ma), with seven dating from the Miocene (>5.6 Ma) and three >8 Ma. The remarkably old age of these species suggest that Amazon forests passed through warmth similar to 2100 levels and that, in the absence of other major environmental changes, near-term high temperature-induced mass species extinction is unlikely.

  6. Vegetation, climate and lake changes over the last 7000 years at the boreal treeline in north-central Siberia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klemm, Juliane; Herzschuh, Ulrike; Pestryakova, Luidmila A.

    2016-09-01

    Palaeoecological investigations in the larch forest-tundra ecotone in northern Siberia have the potential to reveal Holocene environmental variations, which likely have consequences for global climate change because of the strong high-latitude feedback mechanisms. A sediment core, collected from a small lake (radius ∼100 m), was used to reconstruct the development of the lake and its catchment as well as vegetation and summer temperatures over the last 7100 calibrated years. A multi-proxy approach was taken including pollen and sedimentological analyses. Our data indicate a gradual replacement of open larch forests by tundra with scattered single trees as found today in the vicinity of the lake. An overall trend of cooling summer temperature from a ∼2 °C warmer-than-present mid-Holocene summer temperatures until the establishment of modern conditions around 3000 years ago is reconstructed based on a regional pollen-climate transfer function. The inference of regional vegetation changes was compared to local changes in the lake's catchment. An initial small water depression occurred from 7100 to 6500 cal years BP. Afterwards, a small lake formed and deepened, probably due to thermokarst processes. Although the general trends of local and regional environmental change match, the lake catchment changes show higher variability. Furthermore, changes in the lake catchment slightly precede those in the regional vegetation. Both proxies highlight that marked environmental changes occurred in the Siberian forest-tundra ecotone over the course of the Holocene.

  7. Optimal Plant Carbon Allocation Implies a Biological Control on Nitrogen Availability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prentice, I. C.; Stocker, B. D.

    2015-12-01

    The degree to which nitrogen availability limits the terrestrial C sink under rising CO2 is a key uncertainty in carbon cycle and climate change projections. Results from ecosystem manipulation studies and meta-analyses suggest that plant C allocation to roots adjusts dynamically under varying degrees of nitrogen availability and other soil fertility parameters. In addition, the ratio of biomass production to GPP appears to decline under nutrient scarcity. This reflects increasing plant C exudation into the soil (Cex) with decreasing nutrient availability. Cex is consumed by an array of soil organisms and may imply an improvement of nutrient availability to the plant. Thus, N availability is under biological control, but incurs a C cost. In spite of clear observational support, this concept is left unaccounted for in Earth system models. We develop a model for the coupled cycles of C and N in terrestrial ecosystems to explore optimal plant C allocation under rising CO2 and its implications for the ecosystem C balance. The model follows a balanced growth approach, accounting for the trade-offs between leaf versus root growth and Cex in balancing C fixation and N uptake. We assume that Cex is proportional to root mass, and that the ratio of N uptake (Nup) to Cex is proportional to inorganic N concentration in the soil solution. We further assume that Cex is consumed by N2-fixing processes if the ratio of Nup:Cex falls below the inverse of the C cost of N2-fixation. Our analysis thereby accounts for the feedbacks between ecosystem C and N cycling and stoichiometry. We address the question of how the plant C economy will adjust under rising atmospheric CO2 and what this implies for the ecosystem C balance and the degree of N limitation.

  8. Does a Strong El Niño Imply a Higher Predictability of Extreme Drought?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Shanshan; Yuan, Xing; Li, Yaohui

    2017-01-01

    The devastating North China drought in the summer of 2015 was roughly captured by a dynamical seasonal climate forecast model with a good prediction of the 2015/16 big El Niño. This raises a question of whether strong El Niños imply higher predictability of extreme droughts. Here we show that a strong El Niño does not necessarily result in an extreme drought, but it depends on whether the El Niño evolves synergistically with Eurasian spring snow cover reduction to trigger a positive summer Eurasian teleconnection (EU) pattern that favors anomalous northerly and air sinking over North China. The dynamical forecast model that only well represents the El Niño underpredicts the drought severity, while a dynamical-statistical forecasting approach that combines both the low- and high-latitudes precursors is more skillful at long lead. In a warming future, the vanishing cryosphere should be better understood to improve predictability of extreme droughts.

  9. Climate variability and long-term expansion of peat lands in Arctic Norway during the late Pliocene (ODP Site 642, Norwegian Sea)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panitz, Sina; Salzmann, Ulrich; Risebrobakken, Bjorg; De Schepper, Stijn; Pound, Matthew; Bachem, Paul

    2016-04-01

    We present the first high resolution reconstruction of vegetation and climate change in northern Norway between 3.6-3.14 Ma based on pollen assemblages in the marine sediments of ODP Hole 642B, Norwegian Sea (67°N). During the late Pliocene vegetation alternated between cool temperate forests during warmer-than-present intervals and boreal forest similar to today during cooler intervals. The northern boundary of the deciduous to mixed forest zone was displaced at least 4-8° further north and warmest month temperatures were 6-14.5°C higher than present during warm phases. Diverse cool temperate deciduous to mixed forests grew under warm climatic conditions in the lowlands of the Scandinavian mountains during the earliest late Pliocene (c. 3.6-3.47 Ma). A distinct cooling event at c. 3.47 Ma led to the predominance of boreal forest and the development of open, low alpine environments. The cooling culminated around 3.3 Ma, coinciding with Marine Oxygen Isotope Stage (MIS) M2. After c. 3.29 Ma a high variability of climate is indicated by the repeated expansion of forests and peat lands during warmer and cooler periods, respectively. Climate progressively cooled after 3.18 Ma, resembling climatic conditions during MIS M2. A long-term cooling is expressed by an expansion of Sphagnum peat lands that potentially contributed to the decline in atmospheric CO2-concentration at the end of the Piacenzian warm period. Correlations with other Northern Hemisphere records suggest hemisphere-wide effects of climate changes. Late Pliocene vegetation changes will be compared to alkenone-based sea surface temperature reconstructions and dinoflagellate cyst assemblage changes for ODP Hole 642B.

  10. Upper-ocean-to-atmosphere radiocarbon offsets imply fast deglacial carbon dioxide release.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rose, Kathryn A; Sikes, Elisabeth L; Guilderson, Thomas P; Shane, Phil; Hill, Tessa M; Zahn, Rainer; Spero, Howard J

    2010-08-26

    Radiocarbon in the atmosphere is regulated largely by ocean circulation, which controls the sequestration of carbon dioxide (CO(2)) in the deep sea through atmosphere-ocean carbon exchange. During the last glaciation, lower atmospheric CO(2) levels were accompanied by increased atmospheric radiocarbon concentrations that have been attributed to greater storage of CO(2) in a poorly ventilated abyssal ocean. The end of the ice age was marked by a rapid increase in atmospheric CO(2) concentrations that coincided with reduced (14)C/(12)C ratios (Delta(14)C) in the atmosphere, suggesting the release of very 'old' ((14)C-depleted) CO(2) from the deep ocean to the atmosphere. Here we present radiocarbon records of surface and intermediate-depth waters from two sediment cores in the southwest Pacific and Southern oceans. We find a steady 170 per mil decrease in Delta(14)C that precedes and roughly equals in magnitude the decrease in the atmospheric radiocarbon signal during the early stages of the glacial-interglacial climatic transition. The atmospheric decrease in the radiocarbon signal coincides with regionally intensified upwelling and marine biological productivity, suggesting that CO(2) released by means of deep water upwelling in the Southern Ocean lost most of its original depleted-(14)C imprint as a result of exchange and isotopic equilibration with the atmosphere. Our data imply that the deglacial (14)C depletion previously identified in the eastern tropical North Pacific must have involved contributions from sources other than the previously suggested carbon release by way of a deep Southern Ocean pathway, and may reflect the expanded influence of the (14)C-depleted North Pacific carbon reservoir across this interval. Accordingly, shallow water masses advecting north across the South Pacific in the early deglaciation had little or no residual (14)C-depleted signals owing to degassing of CO(2) and biological uptake in the Southern Ocean.

  11. Antarctic climate and ice-sheet configuration during the early Pliocene interglacial at 4.23 Ma

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. R. Golledge

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The geometry of Antarctic ice sheets during warm periods of the geological past is difficult to determine from geological evidence, but is important to know because such reconstructions enable a more complete understanding of how the ice-sheet system responds to changes in climate. Here we investigate how Antarctica evolved under orbital and greenhouse gas conditions representative of an interglacial in the early Pliocene at 4.23 Ma, when Southern Hemisphere insolation reached a maximum. Using offline-coupled climate and ice-sheet models, together with a new synthesis of high-latitude palaeoenvironmental proxy data to define a likely climate envelope, we simulate a range of ice-sheet geometries and calculate their likely contribution to sea level. In addition, we use these simulations to investigate the processes by which the West and East Antarctic ice sheets respond to environmental forcings and the timescales over which these behaviours manifest. We conclude that the Antarctic ice sheet contributed 8.6 ± 2.8 m to global sea level at this time, under an atmospheric CO2 concentration identical to present (400 ppm. Warmer-than-present ocean temperatures led to the collapse of West Antarctica over centuries, whereas higher air temperatures initiated surface melting in parts of East Antarctica that over one to two millennia led to lowering of the ice-sheet surface, flotation of grounded margins in some areas, and retreat of the ice sheet into the Wilkes Subglacial Basin. The results show that regional variations in climate, ice-sheet geometry, and topography produce long-term sea-level contributions that are non-linear with respect to the applied forcings, and which under certain conditions exhibit threshold behaviour associated with behavioural tipping points.

  12. Antarctic climate and ice-sheet configuration during the early Pliocene interglacial at 4.23 Ma

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golledge, Nicholas R.; Thomas, Zoë A.; Levy, Richard H.; Gasson, Edward G. W.; Naish, Timothy R.; McKay, Robert M.; Kowalewski, Douglas E.; Fogwill, Christopher J.

    2017-07-01

    The geometry of Antarctic ice sheets during warm periods of the geological past is difficult to determine from geological evidence, but is important to know because such reconstructions enable a more complete understanding of how the ice-sheet system responds to changes in climate. Here we investigate how Antarctica evolved under orbital and greenhouse gas conditions representative of an interglacial in the early Pliocene at 4.23 Ma, when Southern Hemisphere insolation reached a maximum. Using offline-coupled climate and ice-sheet models, together with a new synthesis of high-latitude palaeoenvironmental proxy data to define a likely climate envelope, we simulate a range of ice-sheet geometries and calculate their likely contribution to sea level. In addition, we use these simulations to investigate the processes by which the West and East Antarctic ice sheets respond to environmental forcings and the timescales over which these behaviours manifest. We conclude that the Antarctic ice sheet contributed 8.6 ± 2.8 m to global sea level at this time, under an atmospheric CO2 concentration identical to present (400 ppm). Warmer-than-present ocean temperatures led to the collapse of West Antarctica over centuries, whereas higher air temperatures initiated surface melting in parts of East Antarctica that over one to two millennia led to lowering of the ice-sheet surface, flotation of grounded margins in some areas, and retreat of the ice sheet into the Wilkes Subglacial Basin. The results show that regional variations in climate, ice-sheet geometry, and topography produce long-term sea-level contributions that are non-linear with respect to the applied forcings, and which under certain conditions exhibit threshold behaviour associated with behavioural tipping points.

  13. The Impact of Jump Distributions on the Implied Volatility of Variance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nicolato, Elisa; Pedersen, David Sloth; Pisani, Camilla

    2016-01-01

    of jumps on the associated implied volatility smile. We provide sufficient conditions for the asymptotic behavior of the implied volatility of variance for small and large strikes. In particular, by selecting alternative jump distributions, we show that one can obtain fundamentally different shapes...... of the implied volatility of variance smile -- some clearly at odds with the upward-sloping volatility skew observed in variance markets....

  14. The Impact of Jump Distributions on the Implied Volatility of Variance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nicolato, Elisa; Pisani, Camilla; Pedersen, David Sloth

    2017-01-01

    of jumps on the associated implied volatility smile. We provide sufficient conditions for the asymptotic behavior of the implied volatility of variance for small and large strikes. In particular, by selecting alternative jump distributions, we show that one can obtain fundamentally different shapes...... of the implied volatility of variance smile -- some clearly at odds with the upward-sloping volatility skew observed in variance markets....

  15. Implied and Realized Volatility in the Cross-Section of Equity Options

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ammann, Manuel; Skovmand, David; Verhofen, Michael

    2009-01-01

    volatilities after controlling for historical volatility. We find evidence that implied volatility overestimates realized volatility for low-beta stocks, small caps, low-market-to-book stocks, and stocks with no momentum and vice versa. However, we cannot reject the null hypothesis that implied volatility......Using a complete sample of US equity options, we analyze patterns of implied volatility in the cross-section of equity options with respect to stock characteristics. We find that high-beta stocks, small stocks, stocks with a low-market-to-book ratio, and non-momentum stocks trade at higher implied...

  16. Implied and Realized Volatility in the Cross-Section of Equity Options

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ammann, Manuel; Skovmand, David; Verhofen, Michael

    2009-01-01

    Using a complete sample of US equity options, we analyze patterns of implied volatility in the cross-section of equity options with respect to stock characteristics. We find that high-beta stocks, small stocks, stocks with a low-market-to-book ratio, and non-momentum stocks trade at higher implied...... volatilities after controlling for historical volatility. We find evidence that implied volatility overestimates realized volatility for low-beta stocks, small caps, low-market-to-book stocks, and stocks with no momentum and vice versa. However, we cannot reject the null hypothesis that implied volatility...

  17. Adaptation to real motion reveals direction-selective interactions between real and implied motion processing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorteije, Jeannette A M; Kenemans, J Leon; Jellema, Tjeerd; van der Lubbe, Rob H J; Lommers, Marjolein W; van Wezel, Richard J A

    2007-08-01

    Viewing static pictures of running humans evokes neural activity in the dorsal motion-sensitive cortex. To establish whether this response arises from direction-selective neurons that are also involved in real motion processing, we measured the visually evoked potential to implied motion following adaptation to static or moving random dot patterns. The implied motion response was defined as the difference between evoked potentials to pictures with and without implied motion. Interaction between real and implied motion was found as a modulation of this difference response by the preceding motion adaptation. The amplitude of the implied motion response was significantly reduced after adaptation to motion in the same direction as the implied motion, compared to motion in the opposite direction. At 280 msec after stimulus onset, the average difference in amplitude reduction between opposite and same adapted direction was 0.5 muV on an average implied motion amplitude of 2.0 muV. These results indicate that the response to implied motion arises from direction-selective motion-sensitive neurons. This is consistent with interactions between real and implied motion processing at a neuronal level.

  18. "It's All Coming Together": An Encounter between Implied Reader and Actual Reader in the Australian Rainforest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Sandra J.

    2008-01-01

    In this paper I discuss how taking a particular literary theory--the implied reader--serves to offer a focus for the teacher's initial reading of a text and provides a formative assessment tool. Iser's Implied Reader theory is discussed, after which a picture book, "Where the Forest Meets the Sea" by Jeannie Baker, is analysed from this…

  19. Potential role of vegetation feedback in the climate sensitivity of high-latitude regions: A case study at 6000 years B.P.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kutzbach, J.-E.; Bartlein, P.J.; Foley, J.A.; Harrison, S.P.; Hosteller, S.W.; Liu, Z.; Prentice, I.C.; Webb, T.

    1996-01-01

    Previous climate model simulations have shown that the configuration of the Earth's orbit during the early to mid-Holocene (approximately 10-5 kyr) can account for the generally warmer-than-present conditions experienced by the high latitudes of the northern hemisphere. New simulations for 6 kyr with two atmospheric/mixed-layer ocean models (Community Climate Model, version 1, CCM1, and Global ENvironmental and Ecological Simulation of Interactive Systems, version 2, GENESIS 2) are presented here and compared with results from two previous simulations with GENESIS 1 that were obtained with and without the albedo feedback due to climate-induced poleward expansion of the boreal forest. The climate model results are summarized in the form of potential vegetation maps obtained with the global BIOME model, which facilitates visual comparisons both among models and with pollen and plant macrofossil data recording shifts of the forest-tundra boundary. A preliminary synthesis shows that the forest limit was shifted 100-200 km north in most sectors. Both CCM1 and GENESIS 2 produced a shift of this magnitude. GENESIS 1 however produced too small a shift, except when the boreal forest albedo feedback was included. The feedback in this case was estimated to have amplified forest expansion by approximately 50%. The forest limit changes also show meridional patterns (greatest expansion in central Siberia and little or none in Alaska and Labrador) which have yet to be reproduced by models. Further progress in understanding of the processes involved in the response of climate and vegetation to orbital forcing will require both the deployment of coupled atmosphere-biosphere-ocean models and the development of more comprehensive observational data sets.

  20. Fractional Black–Scholes option pricing, volatility calibration and implied Hurst exponents in South African context

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emlyn Flint

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: Contingent claims on underlying assets are typically priced under a framework that assumes, inter alia, that the log returns of the underlying asset are normally distributed. However, many researchers have shown that this assumption is violated in practice. Such violations include the statistical properties of heavy tails, volatility clustering, leptokurtosis and long memory. This paper considers the pricing of contingent claims when the underlying is assumed to display long memory, an issue that has heretofore not received much attention. Aim: We address several theoretical and practical issues in option pricing and implied volatility calibration in a fractional Black–Scholes market. We introduce a novel eight-parameter fractional Black–Scholes-inspired (FBSI model for the implied volatility surface, and consider in depth the issue of calibration. One of the main benefits of such a model is that it allows one to decompose implied volatility into an independent long-memory component – captured by an implied Hurst exponent – and a conditional implied volatility component. Such a decomposition has useful applications in the areas of derivatives trading, risk management, delta hedging and dynamic asset allocation. Setting: The proposed FBSI volatility model is calibrated to South African equity index options data as well as South African Rand/American Dollar currency options data. However, given the focus on the theoretical development of the model, the results in this paper are applicable across all financial markets. Methods: The FBSI model essentially combines a deterministic function form of the 1-year implied volatility skew with a separate deterministic function for the implied Hurst exponent, thus allowing one to model both observed implied volatility surfaces as well as decompose them into independent volatility and long-memory components respectively. Calibration of the model makes use of a quasi-explicit weighted

  1. Late-glacial and Holocene record of vegetation and climate from Cynthia Bay, Lake St Clair, Tasmania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hopf, F. V. L.; Colhoun, E. A.; Barton, C. E.

    2000-10-01

    A Late-glacial-Holocene pollen record was obtained from a 3.96 m sediment core taken from Lake St Clair, central Tasmania. Modern vegetation and pollen analyses formed the basis for interpretation of the vegetation and climate history. Following deglaciation and before ca. 18450 yr BP Podocarpus lawrencei coniferous heath and Astelia-Plantago wet alpine herbfield became established at Lake St Clair. A distinct Poaceae-Plantago peak occurs between 18450 and 11210 yr BP and a mean annual temperature depression from ca. 6.2°C to 3°C below present is inferred for this period. The marked reduction in Podocarpus and strong increase of Poaceae suggests reduced precipitation levels during the period of widespread deglaciation (ca. 18.5-11 kyr BP). The local Late Pleistocene-Holocene non-forest to forest biostratigraphical boundary is dated at 11.2 kyr BP. It is characterised by expansion of the subalpine taxa Athrotaxis/Diselma with Nothofagus gunnii, and by the establishment of Nothofagus cunninghamii with Eucalyptus spp. A Phyllocladus bulge prior to the expansion of Nothofagus cunninghamii, reported at other Tasmanian sites, is not present at Lake St Clair. Nothofagus cunninghamii cool temperate rainforest peaked at 7800 yr BP, probably under wetter climatic conditions than present. The maximum development of rainforest in the early-middle Holocene may indicate that the temperature was slightly warmer than present, but the evidence is not definitive. The expansion of Eucalyptus spp. and Poaceae after 6000 yr BP may be partly a disclimax effect as a result of Aboriginal burning, but appears also to reflect reduced precipitation. The changes in vegetation and inferred climate can be explained by major changes in synoptic patterns of southern Australia and the adjacent southwest Pacific.

  2. Holocene Vegetation Succession and Response to Climate Change on the South Bank of the Heilongjiang-Amur River, Mohe County, Northeast China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chao Zhao

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Pollen samples from peat sediments on the south bank of the Heilongjiang River in northern Northeast China (NE China were analyzed to reconstruct the historical response of vegetation to climate change since 7800 cal yr BP. Vegetation was found to have experienced five successions from cold-temperate mixed coniferous and broadleaved forest to forest-steppe, steppe-woodland, steppe, and finally meadow-woodland. From 7800 to 7300 cal yr BP, the study area was warmer than present, and Betula, Larix, and Picea-dominated mixed coniferous and broadleaved forests thrived. Two cooling events at 7300 cal yr BP and 4500 cal yr BP led to a decrease in Betula and other broadleaved forests, whereas herbs of Poaceae expanded, leading to forest-steppe and then steppe-woodland environments. After 2500 cal yr BP, reduced temperatures and a decrease in evaporation rates are likely to have resulted in permafrost expansion and surface ponding, with meadow and isolated coniferous forests developing a resistance to the cold-wet environment. The Holocene warm period in NE China (7800–7300 cal yr BP could have resulted in a strengthening of precipitation in northernmost NE China and encouraged the development of broadleaved forests.

  3. Seasonally resolved climate variability during the last interglacial from southern Caribbean corals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brocas, William; Felis, Thomas; Kölling, Martin; Scholz, Denis; Lohmann, Gerrit; Scheffers, Sanders

    2013-04-01

    A range of future climate scenarios have been predicted for a warmer Earth as a result of varying anthropogenic greenhouse emissions. The Last Interglacial period (~125,000 years ago, Marine Isotope Stage 5) offers a period in time which is estimated to have been in the range of 0.1 to > 2oC warmer than present (AD 1961-1990). Although this period is not considered completely analogous for future climate states, the mechanisms behind such changes have the potential to be well understood. Here we present the initial findings of a study which aims to augment current understanding by quantifying the climate dynamics of the tropical southern Caribbean using high resolution marine climate archives. In doing so, we highlight geochemical proxies obtained from aragonitic coral skeletons as a proxy for seasonality and interannual to decadal climate variability. Unique fossil coral material has been collected from an uplifted reef terrace on the island of Bonaire (Netherlands Antilles), which according to 230Th/U dating, was deposited during the Last Interglacial. The sampling technique employed here has been focused using C/T scanning and X-radiography which revealed annual density bands in 21 individual coral colonies. Due to a high average extension rate of greater than 6mm/year, monthly records are available which represent growth periods from 9 to 40 years and so cover various time windows across the Last Interglacial. We discuss the results from geochemical signals of Sr/Ca and oxygen isotope ratios (δ18O) which reflect, respectively, regional temperature and hydrological balance at the sea surface. The finding that Sr/Ca and δ18O cycles occur alongside visible annual density bands allows the quality of the fossil coral material to be considered high and reliable. To further supplement the interpretation of these records greyscale increment analysis, Mg/Ca and δ13C records are presented. The implications of these findings, when compared to Holocene records, identify

  4. Dynamic co-movements of stock market returns, implied volatility and policy uncertainty

    OpenAIRE

    Antonakakis, N.; Chatziantoniou, I.; Filis, George

    2013-01-01

    We examine time-varying correlations among stock market returns, implied volatility and policy uncertainty. Our findings suggest that correlations are indeed time-varying and sensitive to oil demand shocks and US recessions. Highlights: We examine dynamic correlations of stock market returns, implied volatility and policy uncertainty. Dynamic correlations reveal heterogeneous patterns during US recessions. Aggregate demand oil price shocks and US recessions affect dynamic correlations. A rise...

  5. Level Shifts in Volatility and the Implied-Realized Volatility Relation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Bent Jesper; de Magistris, Paolo Santucci

    to the multivariate case of the univariate level shift technique by Lu and Perron (2008). An application to the S&P500 index and a simulation experiment show that the recently documented empirical properties of strong persistence in volatility and forecastability of future realized volatility from current implied...... volatility, which have been interpreted as long memory (or fractional integration) in volatility and fractional cointegration between implied and realized volatility, are accounted for by occasional common level shifts....

  6. Market-implied risk-neutral probabilities, actual probabilities, credit risk and news

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shashidhar Murthy

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Motivated by the credit crisis, this paper investigates links between risk-neutral probabilities of default implied by markets (e.g. from yield spreads and their actual counterparts (e.g. from ratings. It discusses differences between the two and clarifies underlying economic intuition using simple representations of credit risk pricing. Observed large differences across bonds in the ratio of the two probabilities are shown to imply that apparently safer securities can be more sensitive to news.

  7. Motor mapping of implied actions during perception of emotional body language.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borgomaneri, Sara; Gazzola, Valeria; Avenanti, Alessio

    2012-04-01

    Perceiving and understanding emotional cues is critical for survival. Using the International Affective Picture System (IAPS) previous TMS studies have found that watching humans in emotional pictures increases motor excitability relative to seeing landscapes or household objects, suggesting that emotional cues may prime the body for action. Here we tested whether motor facilitation to emotional pictures may reflect the simulation of the human motor behavior implied in the pictures occurring independently of its emotional valence. Motor-evoked potentials (MEPs) to single-pulse TMS of the left motor cortex were recorded from hand muscles during observation and categorization of emotional and neutral pictures. In experiment 1 participants watched neutral, positive and negative IAPS stimuli, while in experiment 2, they watched pictures depicting human emotional (joyful, fearful), neutral body movements and neutral static postures. Experiment 1 confirms the increase in excitability for emotional IAPS stimuli found in previous research and shows, however, that more implied motion is perceived in emotional relative to neutral scenes. Experiment 2 shows that motor excitability and implied motion scores for emotional and neutral body actions were comparable and greater than for static body postures. In keeping with embodied simulation theories, motor response to emotional pictures may reflect the simulation of the action implied in the emotional scenes. Action simulation may occur independently of whether the observed implied action carries emotional or neutral meanings. Our study suggests the need of controlling implied motion when exploring motor response to emotional pictures of humans. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Another Look at Climate Sensitivity

    CERN Document Server

    Zaliapin, Ilya

    2010-01-01

    We revisit a recent claim that the Earth's climate system is characterized by sensitive dependence to parameters; in particular, that the system exhibits an asymmetric, large-amplitude response to normally distributed feedback forcing. Such a response would imply irreducible uncertainty in climate change predictions and thus have notable implications for climate science and climate-related policy making. We show that equilibrium climate sensitivity in all generality does not support such an intrinsic indeterminacy; the latter appears only in essentially linear systems. The main flaw in the analysis that led to this claim is inappropriate linearization of an intrinsically nonlinear model; there is no room for physical interpretations or policy conclusions based on this mathematical error. Sensitive dependence nonetheless does exist in the climate system, as well as in climate models -- albeit in a very different sense from the one claimed in the linear work under scrutiny -- and we illustrate it using a classi...

  9. Radiocarbon age-offsets in an arctic lake reveal the long-term response of permafrost carbon to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaglioti, Benjamin V.; Mann, Daniel H.; Jones, Benjamin M.; Pohlman, John W.; Kunz, Michael L.; Wooller, Matthew J.

    2014-01-01

    Continued warming of the Arctic may cause permafrost to thaw and speed the decomposition of large stores of soil organic carbon (OC), thereby accentuating global warming. However, it is unclear if recent warming has raised the current rates of permafrost OC release to anomalous levels or to what extent soil carbon release is sensitive to climate forcing. Here we use a time series of radiocarbon age-offsets (14C) between the bulk lake sediment and plant macrofossils deposited in an arctic lake as an archive for soil and permafrost OC release over the last 14,500 years. The lake traps and archives OC imported from the watershed and allows us to test whether prior warming events stimulated old carbon release and heightened age-offsets. Today, the age-offset (2 ka; thousand of calibrated years before A.D. 1950) and the depositional rate of ancient OC from the watershed into the lake are relatively low and similar to those during the Younger Dryas cold interval (occurring 12.9–11.7 ka). In contrast, age-offsets were higher (3.0–5.0 ka) when summer air temperatures were warmer than present during the Holocene Thermal Maximum (11.7–9.0 ka) and Bølling-Allerød periods (14.5–12.9 ka). During these warm times, permafrost thaw contributed to ancient OC depositional rates that were ~10 times greater than today. Although permafrost OC was vulnerable to climate warming in the past, we suggest surface soil organic horizons and peat are presently limiting summer thaw and carbon release. As a result, the temperature threshold to trigger widespread permafrost OC release is higher than during previous warming events.

  10. Modeling the Implied Volatility Surface-: A Study for S&P 500 Index Option

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jin Zheng

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to demonstrate a framework to model the implied volatilities of S&P 500 index options and estimate the implied volatilities of stock prices using stochastic processes. In this paper, three models are established to estimate whether the implied volatilities are constant during the whole life of options. We mainly concentrate on the Black-Scholes and Dumas’ option models and make the empirical comparisons. By observing the daily-recorded data of S&P 500 index, we study the volatility model and volatility surface. Results from numerical experiments show that the stochastic volatilities are determined by moneyness rather than constant. Our research is of vital importance, especially for forecasting stock market shocks and crises, as one of the applications.

  11. A Pedagogical "Toy" Climate Model

    CERN Document Server

    Katz, J I

    2010-01-01

    A "toy" model, simple and elementary enough for an undergraduate class, of the temperature dependence of the greenhouse (mid-IR) absorption by atmospheric water vapor implies a bistable climate system. The stable states are glaciation and warm interglacials, while intermediate states are unstable. This is in qualitative accord with the paleoclimatic data. The present climate may be unstable, with or without anthropogenic interventions such as CO$_2$ emission, unless there is additional stabilizing feedback such as "geoengineering".

  12. Does “quorum sensing” imply a new type of biological information?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bruni, Luis Emilio

    2002-01-01

    of biological information implied by genetic information with that implied in the concept of “quorum sensing” (which refers to a prokaryotic cell-to-cell communication system) in order to explore if such integration is being achieved. I use the Lux operon paradigm and the Vibrio fischeri – Euprymna scolopes...... the different emergent levels. I also emphasise that the realisation of biology as being a “science of sensing” and the new importance that is being ascribed to the “context” in experimental biology corroborate past claims of biosemioticians about a shift from a focus on information (as a material agent...

  13. Implied Volatility of Interest Rate Options: An Empirical Investigation of the Market Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Charlotte; Hansen, Charlotte Strunk

    2002-01-01

    We analyze the empirical properties of the volatility implied in options on the 13-week US Treasury bill rate. These options have not been studied previously. It is shown that a European style put option on the interest rate is equivalent to a call option on a zero-coupon bond. We apply the LIBOR...

  14. Implied Volatility of Interest Rate Options: An Empirical Investigation of the Market Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Charlotte; Hansen, Charlotte Strunk

    2002-01-01

    We analyze the empirical properties of the volatility implied in options on the 13-week US Treasury bill rate. These options have not been studied previously. It is shown that a European style put option on the interest rate is equivalent to a call option on a zero-coupon bond. We apply the LIBOR...

  15. 77 FR 2056 - Merrimac Paper Company, Inc.; Notice of Termination of License by Implied Surrender and...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-13

    ... Energy Regulatory Commission Merrimac Paper Company, Inc.; Notice of Termination of License by Implied... Surrender. b. Project No.: 2928-007. c. Date Initiated: January 06, 2012. d. Licensee: Merrimac Paper... documents may be filed electronically via the Internet in lieu of paper. See 18 CFR 385.2001(a)(1)(iii) and...

  16. An Assessment of Behavioural Variables Implied in Teamwork: An Experience with Engineering Students of Zaragoza University

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandez, Juan Luis Cano; Lopez, Ivan Lidon; Rubio, Ruben Rebollar; Marco, Fernando Gimeno

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents a study of behavioural variables implied in the working dynamics of student groups undertaking their first project. The study was carried out in two phases. During the first phase, the participants answered a survey of open questions regarding their own behaviour and that of their teammates, questions related to: the quality of…

  17. Asymptotic Nilpotency Implies Nilpotency in Cellular Automata on the d-Dimensional Full Shift

    CERN Document Server

    Salo, Ville

    2012-01-01

    We prove a conjecture in [3] by showing that cellular automata that eventually fix all cells to a fixed symbol 0 are nilpotent on S^{\\Z^d} for all d. We also briefly discuss nilpotency on other subshifts, and show that weak nilpotency implies nilpotency in all subshifts and all dimensions, since we do not know a published reference for this.

  18. Implied Motion Activation in Cortical Area MT Can Be Explained by Visual Low-level Features

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lorteije, Jeannette A.M.; Barraclough, Nick E.; Jellema, Tjeerd; Raemaekers, Mathijs; Duijnhouwer, Jacob; Xiao, Dengke; Oram, Mike W.; Lankheet, Martin J.M.; Perrett, David I.; van Wezel, Richard Jack Anton

    To investigate form-related activity in motion-sensitive cortical areas, we recorded cell responses to animate implied motion in macaque middle temporal (MT) and medial superior temporal (MST) cortex and investigated these areas using fMRI in humans. In the single-cell studies, we compared responses

  19. Adaptation to real motion reveals direction-selective interactions between real and implied motion processing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lorteije, J.A.M.; Kenemans, J.L.; Jellema, T.; Lubbe, R.H.J. van der; Lommers, M.W.; Wezel, R.J.A. van

    2007-01-01

    Viewing static pictures of running humans evokes neural activity in the dorsal motion-sensitive cortex. To establish whether this response arises from direction-selective neurons that are also involved in real motion processing, we measured the visually evoked potential to implied motion following a

  20. Delayed response to animate implied motion in human motion processing areas

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lorteije, J.A.M.; Kenemans, J.L.; Jellema, T.; Lubbe, R.H.J. van der; Heer, F. de; Wezel, R.J.A. van

    2006-01-01

    Viewing static photographs of objects in motion evokes higher fMRI activation in the human medial temporal complex (MT+) than looking at similar photographs without this implied motion. As MT+ is traditionally thought to be involved in motion perception (and not in form perception), this finding sug

  1. Delayed Response to Animate Implied Motion in Human Motion Processing Areas

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lorteije, Jeannette A.M.; Kenemans, J. Leon; Jellema, Tjeerd; Lubbe, van der Rob H.J.; Heer, de Frederiek; Wezel, van Richard J.A.

    2006-01-01

    Viewing static photographs of objects in motion evokes higher fMRI activation in the human medial temporal complex (MT+) than looking at similar photographs without this implied motion. As MT+ is traditionally thought to be involved in motion perception (and not in form perception), this finding sug

  2. Adaptation to Real Motion Reveals Direction-selective Interactions between Real and Implied Motion Processing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lorteije, Jeannette A.M.; Kenemans, Leon; Jellema, Tjeerd; Lubbe, van der Rob H.J.; Lommers, Marjolein W.; Wezel, van Richard J.A.

    2007-01-01

    Viewing static pictures of running humans evokes neural activity in the dorsal motion-sensitive cortex. To establish whether this response arises from direction-selective neurons that are also involved in real motion processing, we measured the visually evoked potential to implied motion following a

  3. Aplikasi Algoritma Biseksi dan Newton-Raphson dalam Menaksir Nilai Volatilitas Implied

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Komang Dharmawan

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Volatilitas adalah suatu besaran yang mengukuran seberapa jauh suatu harga sahambergerak dalam suatu periode tertentu dapat juga diartikan sebagai persentase simpanganbaku dari perubahan harga harian suatu saham. Menurut teori yang dikembangkan oleh Black-Scholes in 1973, semua harga opsi dengan ’underlying asset’ dan waktu jatuh tempo yang samatetapi memiliki nilai exercise yang berbeda akan memiliki nilai volatilitas implied yang sama.Model Black-Scholes dapat dipakai mengestimasi nilai volatilitas implied dari suatu sahamdengan mencari sulusi numerik dari persamaan invers dari model Black-Scholes. Makalah inimendemonstrasikan bagaimana menghitung nilai volatilitas implied suatu saham dengan mengasumsikanbahwa model Black-schole adalah benar dan suatu kontrak opsi dengan denganumur kontrak yang sama akan memiliki harga yang sama. Menggunakan data harga opsi SonyCorporation (SNE, Cisco Systems, Inc (CSCO, dan Canon, Inc (CNJ diperoleh bahwa, ImpliedVolatility memberikan harga yang lebih murah dibandingkan dengan harga opsi darivolatilitas yang dihitung dari data historis. Selain itu, dari hasil iterasi yang diperoleh, metodeNewton-Raphson lebih cepat konvergen dibandingkan dengan metode Bisection.

  4. Responses of alpine biodiversity to climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Yang Liu; Jian Zhang; Wanqin Yang

    2009-01-01

    The alpine belt is the temperature-driven treeless region between the timberline and the snowline. Alpine belts are ideal sites for monitoring climate change because species in mountain habitats are especially sensitive to climate change. Global warming is shifting the distribution of alpine biodiversity and is leading to glacial retreat, implying that alterations in alpine biodiversity are indicators of climate change. Therefore, more attention has been given to changes in species compositio...

  5. Latent Integrated Stochastic Volatility, Realized Volatility, and Implied Volatility: A State Space Approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bach, Christian; Christensen, Bent Jesper

    We include simultaneously both realized volatility measures based on high-frequency asset returns and implied volatilities backed out of individual traded at the money option prices in a state space approach to the analysis of true underlying volatility. We model integrated volatility as a latent...... fi…rst order Markov process and show that our model is closely related to the CEV and Barndorff-Nielsen & Shephard (2001) models for local volatility. We show that if measurement noise in the observable volatility proxies is not accounted for, then the estimated autoregressive parameter in the latent...... process is downward biased. Implied volatility performs better than any of the alternative realized measures when forecasting future integrated volatility. The results are largely similar across the stock market (S&P 500), bond market (30-year U.S. T-bond), and foreign currency exchange market ($/£ )....

  6. Selecting the Best Forecasting-Implied Volatility Model Using Genetic Programming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wafa Abdelmalek

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The volatility is a crucial variable in option pricing and hedging strategies. The aim of this paper is to provide some initial evidence of the empirical relevance of genetic programming to volatility's forecasting. By using real data from S&P500 index options, the genetic programming's ability to forecast Black and Scholes-implied volatility is compared between time series samples and moneyness-time to maturity classes. Total and out-of-sample mean squared errors are used as forecasting's performance measures. Comparisons reveal that the time series model seems to be more accurate in forecasting-implied volatility than moneyness time to maturity models. Overall, results are strongly encouraging and suggest that the genetic programming approach works well in solving financial problems.

  7. On a Pair of Operator Series Expansions Implying a Variety of Summation Formulas

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Leetsch C. Hsu∗

    2015-01-01

    With the aid of Mullin-Rota’s substitution rule, we show that the Sheffer-type differential operators together with the delta operators∆and D could be used to construct a pair of expansion formulas that imply a wide variety of summation formu-las in the discrete analysis and combinatorics. A convergence theorem is established for a fruitful source formula that implies more than 20 noted classical fomulas and i-dentities as consequences. Numerous new formulas are also presented as illustrative examples. Finally, it is shown that a kind of lifting process can be used to produce certain chains of (∞m ) degree formulas for m≥3 with m≡1 (mod 2) and m≡1 (mod 3), respectively.

  8. HISTORICAL AND IMPLIED VOLATILITY: AN INVESTIGATION INTO NSE NIFTY FUTURES AND OPTIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N R Parasuraman

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available The broad objective of the paper is to have an understanding of the movement of volatility over a fair period in respect of the market portfolio. Also, it enables an understanding on how divergent the implied volatility has been from this estimate. It uses Volatility Cone, Volatility Smile and Volatility Surface as the parameters. The study takes different rolling periods percentiles of volatility. Hoadley Options Calculator is used for calculation and analysis purpose. The study empirically proves that there is a clear reversion to the mean as indicated by the volatility cone. The study of volatility smiles in respect of NIFTY options throws up different patterns. The Garch (1.1 model reveals that historical volatility for the period from 2004 to 2004 and for the year 2009 were estimated. Interestingly, but not totally surprisingly, the average implied volatility of calls and puts on Nifty during the period January to March 2010 showed differences.

  9. Portfolio Optimization under Local-Stochastic Volatility: Coefficient Taylor Series Approximations & Implied Sharpe Ratio

    OpenAIRE

    Matthew Lorig; Ronnie Sircar

    2015-01-01

    We study the finite horizon Merton portfolio optimization problem in a general local-stochastic volatility setting. Using model coefficient expansion techniques, we derive approximations for the both the value function and the optimal investment strategy. We also analyze the `implied Sharpe ratio' and derive a series approximation for this quantity. The zeroth-order approximation of the value function and optimal investment strategy correspond to those obtained by Merton (1969) when the risky...

  10. Implied Volatility Futures Trading Activity and Impacts on Asian Stock Market: An Empirical study

    OpenAIRE

    Pham, Duc Nam Trung

    2014-01-01

    This study analyzes impacts of the adoption of a new type of derivatives instrument in the Asian stock market- the implied volatility futures. Furthermore, the analysis is carried on to the preferences of hedging tools in the two pioneering markets in such adoption, Hong Kong and Japan. Unlike other conventional derivatives, the relationship derivatives on volatility and its underlying assets is almost impossible to be modeled, thus creates several difficulties in pricing as well as researchi...

  11. Implied and Local Volatility Surfaces for South African Index and Foreign Exchange Options

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonie Kotzé

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Certain exotic options cannot be valued using closed-form solutions or even by numerical methods assuming constant volatility. Many exotics are priced in a local volatility framework. Pricing under local volatility has become a field of extensive research in finance, and various models are proposed in order to overcome the shortcomings of the Black-Scholes model that assumes a constant volatility. The Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE lists exotic options on its Can-Do platform. Most exotic options listed on the JSE’s derivative exchanges are valued by local volatility models. These models needs a local volatility surface. Dupire derived a mapping from implied volatilities to local volatilities. The JSE uses this mapping in generating the relevant local volatility surfaces and further uses Monte Carlo and Finite Difference methods when pricing exotic options. In this document we discuss various practical issues that influence the successful construction of implied and local volatility surfaces such that pricing engines can be implemented successfully. We focus on arbitrage-free conditions and the choice of calibrating functionals. We illustrate our methodologies by studying the implied and local volatility surfaces of South African equity index and foreign exchange options.

  12. An inverse problem of determining the implied volatility in option pricing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Zui-Cha; Yu, Jian-Ning; Yang, Liu

    2008-04-01

    In the Black-Scholes world there is the important quantity of volatility which cannot be observed directly but has a major impact on the option value. In practice, traders usually work with what is known as implied volatility which is implied by option prices observed in the market. In this paper, we use an optimal control framework to discuss an inverse problem of determining the implied volatility when the average option premium, namely the average value of option premium corresponding with a fixed strike price and all possible maturities from the current time to a chosen future time, is known. The issue is converted into a terminal control problem by Green function method. The existence and uniqueness of the minimum of the control functional are addressed by the optimal control method, and the necessary condition which must be satisfied by the minimum is also given. The results obtained in the paper may be useful for those who engage in risk management or volatility trading.

  13. Malaria ecology and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCord, G. C.

    2016-05-01

    Understanding the costs that climate change will exact on society is crucial to devising an appropriate policy response. One of the channels through while climate change will affect human society is through vector-borne diseases whose epidemiology is conditioned by ambient ecology. This paper introduces the literature on malaria, its cost on society, and the consequences of climate change to the physics community in hopes of inspiring synergistic research in the area of climate change and health. It then demonstrates the use of one ecological indicator of malaria suitability to provide an order-of-magnitude assessment of how climate change might affect the malaria burden. The average of Global Circulation Model end-of-century predictions implies a 47% average increase in the basic reproduction number of the disease in today's malarious areas, significantly complicating malaria elimination efforts.

  14. Optimal learning on climate change: why climate skeptics should reduce emissions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Wijnbergen, S.; Willems, T.

    2015-01-01

    Climate skeptics typically argue that the possibility that global warming is exogenous, implies that we should not take additional action towards reducing emissions until we know what drives warming. This paper however shows that even climate skeptics have an incentive to reduce emissions: such a di

  15. Optimal learning on climate change: why climate skeptics should reduce emissions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S. van Wijnbergen; T. Willems

    2012-01-01

    Climate skeptics argue that the possibility that global warming is exogenous implies that we should not take additional action towards reducing greenhouse gas emissions until we know more. However this paper shows that even climate skeptics have an incentive to reduce emissions: such a change of dir

  16. Optimal learning on climate change: why climate skeptics should reduce emissions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Wijnbergen, S.; Willems, T.

    2015-01-01

    Climate skeptics typically argue that the possibility that global warming is exogenous, implies that we should not take additional action towards reducing emissions until we know what drives warming. This paper however shows that even climate skeptics have an incentive to reduce emissions: such a

  17. Optimal learning on climate change: why climate skeptics should reduce emissions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Wijnbergen, S.; Willems, T.

    2012-01-01

    Climate skeptics argue that the possibility that global warming is exogenous implies that we should not take additional action towards reducing greenhouse gas emissions until we know more. However this paper shows that even climate skeptics have an incentive to reduce emissions: such a change of

  18. Individual Differences in Students' Complex Problem Solving Skills: How They Evolve and What They Imply

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wüstenberg, Sascha; Greiff, Samuel; Vainikainen, Mari-Pauliina; Murphy, Kevin

    2016-01-01

    Changes in the demands posed by increasingly complex workplaces in the 21st century have raised the importance of nonroutine skills such as complex problem solving (CPS). However, little is known about the antecedents and outcomes of CPS, especially with regard to malleable external factors such as classroom climate. To investigate the relations…

  19. THE SPACE MOTION OF LEO I: HUBBLE SPACE TELESCOPE PROPER MOTION AND IMPLIED ORBIT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sohn, Sangmo Tony; Van der Marel, Roeland P. [Space Telescope Science Institute, 3700 San Martin Drive, Baltimore, MD 21218 (United States); Besla, Gurtina [Department of Astronomy, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027 (United States); Boylan-Kolchin, Michael; Bullock, James S. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Center for Cosmology, University of California, 4129 Reines Hall, Irvine, CA 92697 (United States); Majewski, Steven R., E-mail: tsohn@stsci.edu [Department of Astronomy, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA 22904-4325 (United States)

    2013-05-10

    We present the first absolute proper motion measurement of Leo I, based on two epochs of Hubble Space Telescope ACS/WFC images separated by {approx}5 years in time. The average shift of Leo I stars with respect to {approx}100 background galaxies implies a proper motion of ({mu}{sub W}, {mu}{sub N}) = (0.1140 {+-} 0.0295, -0.1256 {+-} 0.0293) mas yr{sup -1}. The implied Galactocentric velocity vector, corrected for the reflex motion of the Sun, has radial and tangential components V{sub rad} = 167.9 {+-} 2.8 km s{sup -1} and V{sub tan} = 101.0 {+-} 34.4 km s{sup -1}, respectively. We study the detailed orbital history of Leo I by solving its equations of motion backward in time for a range of plausible mass models for the Milky Way (MW) and its surrounding galaxies. Leo I entered the MW virial radius 2.33 {+-} 0.21 Gyr ago, most likely on its first infall. It had a pericentric approach 1.05 {+-} 0.09 Gyr ago at a Galactocentric distance of 91 {+-} 36 kpc. We associate these timescales with characteristic timescales in Leo I's star formation history, which shows an enhanced star formation activity {approx}2 Gyr ago and quenching {approx}1 Gyr ago. There is no indication from our calculations that other galaxies have significantly influenced Leo I's orbit, although there is a small probability that it may have interacted with either Ursa Minor or Leo II within the last {approx}1 Gyr. For most plausible MW masses, the observed velocity implies that Leo I is bound to the MW. However, it may not be appropriate to include it in models of the MW satellite population that assume dynamical equilibrium, given its recent infall. Solution of the complete (non-radial) timing equations for the Leo I orbit implies an MW mass M{sub MW,vir} = 3.15{sub -1.36}{sup +1.58} x 10{sup 12} M{sub Sun }, with the large uncertainty dominated by cosmic scatter. In a companion paper, we compare the new observations to the properties of Leo I subhalo analogs extracted from cosmological

  20. Large fault fabric of the Ninetyeast Ridge implies near-spreading ridge formation

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Sager, W.W.; Paul, C.F; Krishna, K.S.; Pringle, M.S.; Eisin, A.E.; Frey, F; Rao, D; Levchenko, O.V.

    Large Fault Fabric of the Ninetyeast Ridge Implies Near-Spreading Ridge Formation 1 W. W. Sager 1 *, C. F. Paul 1 , K. S. Krishna 2 , M. Pringle 3 , A. E. Eisin 1,4 , F. A. Frey 3 , D. Gopala 2 Rao 5 , O. Levchenko 6 3 1 Department of Oceanography....proc.sr.121.122.1991. 254 Sandwell, D. T., and W. H. F. Smith (2009), Global marine gravity from retracked Geosat and 255 ERS-1 Altimetry: Ridge segmentation versus spreading rate, J. Geophys. Res., 114, 1-16, 256 doi:10.10029/2008JB006008, 2009. 257...

  1. The Space Motion of Leo I: Hubble Space Telescope Proper Motion and Implied Orbit

    CERN Document Server

    Sohn, Sangmo Tony; van der Marel, Roeland P; Boylan-Kolchin, Michael; Majewski, Steven R; Bullock, James S

    2012-01-01

    We present the first absolute proper motion measurement of Leo I, based on two epochs of HST ACS/WFC images separated by ~5 years. The average shift of Leo I stars with respect to ~100 background galaxies implies a proper motion of (mu_W, mu_N) = (0.1140 +/- 0.0295, -0.1256 +/- 0.0293) mas/yr. The implied Galactocentric velocity vector, corrected for the reflex motion of the Sun, has radial and tangential components V_rad = 167.9 +/- 2.8 km/s and V_tan = 101.0 +/- 34.4 km/s, respectively. We study the detailed orbital history of Leo I by solving its equations of motion backward in time for a range of plausible mass models for the Milky Way and its surrounding galaxies. Leo I entered the Milky Way virial radius 2.33 +/- 0.21 Gyr ago, most likely on its first infall. It had a pericentric approach 1.05 +/- 0.09 Gyr ago at a Galactocentric distance of 91 +/- 36 kpc. We associate these time scales with characteristic time scales in Leo I's star formation history, which shows an enhanced star formation activity ~2 ...

  2. Scalar utility theory and proportional processing: What does it actually imply?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenström, Tom; Wiesner, Karoline; Houston, Alasdair I

    2016-09-01

    Scalar Utility Theory (SUT) is a model used to predict animal and human choice behaviour in the context of reward amount, delay to reward, and variability in these quantities (risk preferences). This article reviews and extends SUT, deriving novel predictions. We show that, contrary to what has been implied in the literature, (1) SUT can predict both risk averse and risk prone behaviour for both reward amounts and delays to reward depending on experimental parameters, (2) SUT implies violations of several concepts of rational behaviour (e.g. it violates strong stochastic transitivity and its equivalents, and leads to probability matching) and (3) SUT can predict, but does not always predict, a linear relationship between risk sensitivity in choices and coefficient of variation in the decision-making experiment. SUT derives from Scalar Expectancy Theory which models uncertainty in behavioural timing using a normal distribution. We show that the above conclusions also hold for other distributions, such as the inverse Gaussian distribution derived from drift-diffusion models. A straightforward way to test the key assumptions of SUT is suggested and possible extensions, future prospects and mechanistic underpinnings are discussed.

  3. Sensitivity of interglacial Greenland temperature and δ18O: ice core data, orbital and increased CO2 climate simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Swingedouw

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available The sensitivity of interglacial Greenland temperature to orbital and CO2 forcing is investigated using the NorthGRIP ice core data and coupled ocean-atmosphere IPSL-CM4 model simulations. These simulations were conducted in response to different interglacial orbital configurations, and to increased CO2 concentrations. These different forcings cause very distinct simulated seasonal and latitudinal temperature and water cycle changes, limiting the analogies between the last interglacial and future climate. However, the IPSL-CM4 model shows similar magnitudes of Arctic summer warming and climate feedbacks in response to 2 × CO2 and orbital forcing of the last interglacial period (126 000 years ago. The IPSL-CM4 model produces a remarkably linear relationship between TOA incoming summer solar radiation and simulated changes in summer and annual mean central Greenland temperature. This contrasts with the stable isotope record from the Greenland ice cores, showing a multi-millennial lagged response to summer insolation. During the early part of interglacials, the observed lags may be explained by ice sheet-ocean feedbacks linked with changes in ice sheet elevation and the impact of meltwater on ocean circulation, as investigated with sensitivity studies. A quantitative comparison between ice core data and climate simulations requires stability of the stable isotope – temperature relationship to be explored. Atmospheric simulations including water stable isotopes have been conducted with the LMDZiso model under different boundary conditions. This set of simulations allows calculation of a temporal Greenland isotope-temperature slope (0.3–0.4‰ per °C during warmer-than-present Arctic climates, in response to increased CO2, increased ocean temperature and orbital forcing. This temporal slope appears half as large as the modern spatial gradient and is consistent with other ice core estimates. It may, however, be model-dependent, as indicated by

  4. Evolution of climate niches in European mammals?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dormann, Carsten F; Gruber, Bernd; Winter, Marten; Herrmann, Dirk

    2010-04-23

    Our ability to predict consequences of climate change is severely impaired by the lack of knowledge on the ability of species to adapt to changing environmental conditions. We used distribution data for 140 mammal species in Europe, together with data on climate, land cover and topography, to derive a statistical description of their realized climate niche. We then compared climate niche overlap of pairs of species, selected on the basis of phylogenetic information. In contrast to expectations, related species were not similar in their climate niche. Rather, even species pairs that had a common ancestor less than 1 Ma already display very high climate niche distances. We interpret our finding as a strong interspecific competitive constraint on the realized niche, rather than a rapid evolution of the fundamental niche. If correct, our results imply a very limited usefulness of climate niche models for the prediction of future mammal distributions.

  5. The implied volatility index: Is ‘investor fear gauge’ or ‘forward-looking’?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Imlak Shaikh

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper aims to examine implied volatility as the investor fear gauge or/and forward-looking expectation of future stock market volatility within emerging markets setting-India VIX. The earliest results evidenced that VIX is the gauge of investor fear, where in the expected stock market volatility rises when the given market is declined. It is also proven that expected volatility is being unbiased estimate of the actual return volatility (30-calendar days; hence, during the market turmoil VIX likely to be biased. Lastly, it is suggested that the nervousness of investor yields potential profit to the options seller (market crises. Thus, our research has practical implications for various reasons, such as, portfolio risk management, stock market volatility forecast, and options pricing.

  6. A homological selection theorem implying a division theorem for Q-manifolds

    OpenAIRE

    2015-01-01

    We prove that a space ▫$M$▫ with the Disjoint Disk Property is a ▫$Q$▫-manifold if and only if ▫$M times X$▫ is a ▫$Q$▫-manifold for some ▫$C$▫-space ▫$X$▫. This implies that the product ▫$M times I^2$▫ of a space $M$ with the disk is a ▫$Q$▫-manifold if and only if ▫$M times X$▫ is a ▫$Q$▫-manifold for some ▫$C$▫-space ▫$X$▫. The proof of these theorems exploits the homological characterization of ▫$Q$▫-manifolds due to R. J. Daverman and J. J. Walsh, combined with the existence of ▫$G$▫-sta...

  7. Cathepsin B gene disruption induced Leishmania donovani proteome remodeling implies cathepsin B role in secretome regulation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Teklu Kuru Gerbaba

    Full Text Available Leishmania cysteine proteases are potential vaccine candidates and drug targets. To study the role of cathepsin B cysteine protease, we have generated and characterized cathepsin B null mutant L. donovani parasites. L. donovani cathepsin B null mutants grow normally in culture, but they show significantly attenuated virulence inside macrophages. Quantitative proteome profiling of wild type and null mutant parasites indicates cathepsin B disruption induced remodeling of L. donovani proteome. We identified 83 modulated proteins, of which 65 are decreased and 18 are increased in the null mutant parasites, and 66% (55/83 of the modulated proteins are L. donovani secreted proteins. Proteins involved in oxidation-reduction (trypanothione reductase, peroxidoxins, tryparedoxin, cytochromes and translation (ribosomal proteins are among those decreased in the null mutant parasites, and most of these proteins belong to the same complex network of proteins. Our results imply virulence role of cathepsin B via regulation of Leishmania secreted proteins.

  8. Minimal H{\\"o}lder regularity implying finiteness of integral Menger curvature

    CERN Document Server

    Kolasi{ń}ski, Sławomir

    2011-01-01

    We study two families of integral functionals indexed by a real number $p > 0$. One family is defined for 1-dimensional curves in $\\R^3$ and the other one is defined for $m$-dimensional manifolds in $\\R^n$. These functionals are described as integrals of appropriate integrands (strongly related to the Menger curvature) raised to power $p$. Given $p > m(m+1)$ we prove that $C^{1,\\alpha}$ regularity of the set (a curve or a manifold), with $\\alpha > \\alpha_0 = 1 - \\frac{m(m+1)}p$ implies finiteness of both curvature functionals ($m=1$ in the case of curves). We also show that $\\alpha_0$ is optimal by constructing examples of $C^{1,\\alpha_0}$ functions with graphs of infinite integral curvature.

  9. Relative sensory sparing in the diabetic foot implied through vibration testing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Todd O'Brien

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Background: The dorsal aspect of the hallux is often cited as the anatomic location of choice for vibration testing in the feet of diabetic patients. To validate this preference, vibration tests were performed and compared at the hallux and 5th metatarsal head in diabetic patients with established neuropathy. Methods: Twenty-eight neuropathic, diabetic patients and 17 non-neuropathic, non-diabetic patients underwent timed vibration testing (TVT with a novel 128 Hz electronic tuning fork (ETF at the hallux and 5th metatarsal head. Results: TVT values in the feet of diabetic patients were found to be reduced at both locations compared to controls. Unexpectedly, these values were significantly lower at the hallux (P < 0.001 compared to the 5th metatarsal head. Conclusion: This study confirms the hallux as the most appropriate location for vibration testing and implies relative sensory sparing at the 5th metatarsal head, a finding not previously reported in diabetic patients.

  10. The dynamic conditional relationship between stock market returns and implied volatility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Sung Y.; Ryu, Doojin; Song, Jeongseok

    2017-09-01

    Using the dynamic conditional correlation multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (DCC-MGARCH) model, we empirically examine the dynamic relationship between stock market returns (KOSPI200 returns) and implied volatility (VKOSPI), as well as their statistical mechanics, in the Korean market, a representative and leading emerging market. We consider four macroeconomic variables (exchange rates, risk-free rates, term spreads, and credit spreads) as potential determinants of the dynamic conditional correlation between returns and volatility. Of these macroeconomic variables, the change in exchange rates has a significant impact on the dynamic correlation between KOSPI200 returns and the VKOSPI, especially during the recent financial crisis. We also find that the risk-free rate has a marginal effect on this dynamic conditional relationship.

  11. A violation of the uncertainty principle implies a violation of the second law of thermodynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hänggi, Esther; Wehner, Stephanie

    2013-01-01

    Uncertainty relations state that there exist certain incompatible measurements, to which the outcomes cannot be simultaneously predicted. While the exact incompatibility of quantum measurements dictated by such uncertainty relations can be inferred from the mathematical formalism of quantum theory, the question remains whether there is any more fundamental reason for the uncertainty relations to have this exact form. What, if any, would be the operational consequences if we were able to go beyond any of these uncertainty relations? Here we give a strong argument that justifies uncertainty relations in quantum theory by showing that violating them implies that it is also possible to violate the second law of thermodynamics. More precisely, we show that violating the uncertainty relations in quantum mechanics leads to a thermodynamic cycle with positive net work gain, which is very unlikely to exist in nature.

  12. Comparison of different gravity field implied density models of the topography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sedighi, Morteza; Tabatabaee, Seied; Najafi-Alamdari, Mehdi

    2009-06-01

    Density within the Earth crust varies between 1.0 and 3.0 g/cm3. The Bouguer gravity field measured in south Iran is analyzed using four different regional-residual separation techniques to obtain a residual map of the gravity field suitable for density modeling of topography. A density model of topography with radial and lateral distribution of density is required for an accurate determination of the geoid, e.g., in the Stokes-Helmert approach. The apparent density mapping technique is used to convert the four residual Bouguer anomaly fields into the corresponding four gravity im-plied subsurface density (GRADEN) models. Although all four density models showed good correlation with the geological density (GEODEN) model of the region, the GRADEN models obtained by high-pass filter-ing and GGM high-pass filtering show better numerical correlation with GEODEN model than the other models.

  13. Universal Property of Quantum Gravity implied by Bekenstein-Hawking Entropy and Boltzmann formula

    CERN Document Server

    Saida, Hiromi

    2013-01-01

    We search for a universal property of quantum gravity. By "universal", we mean the independence from any existing model of quantum gravity (such as the super string theory, loop quantum gravity, causal dynamical triangulation, and so on). To do so, we try to put the basis of our discussion on theories established by some experiments. Thus, we focus our attention on thermodynamical and statistical-mechanical basis of the black hole thermodynamics: Let us assume that the Bekenstein-Hawking entropy is given by the Boltzmann formula applied to the underlying theory of quantum gravity. Under this assumption, the conditions justifying Boltzmann formula together with uniqueness of Bekenstein-Hawking entropy imply a reasonable universal property of quantum gravity. The universal property indicates a repulsive gravity at Planck length scale, otherwise stationary black holes can not be regarded as thermal equilibrium states of gravity. Further, in semi-classical level, we discuss a possible correction of Einstein equat...

  14. What the success of brain imaging implies about the neural code.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guest, Olivia; Love, Bradley C

    2017-01-19

    The success of fMRI places constraints on the nature of the neural code. The fact that researchers can infer similarities between neural representations, despite fMRI's limitations, implies that certain neural coding schemes are more likely than others. For fMRI to succeed given its low temporal and spatial resolution, the neural code must be smooth at the voxel and functional level such that similar stimuli engender similar internal representations. Through proof and simulation, we determine which coding schemes are plausible given both fMRI's successes and its limitations in measuring neural activity. Deep neural network approaches, which have been forwarded as computational accounts of the ventral stream, are consistent with the success of fMRI, though functional smoothness breaks down in the later network layers. These results have implications for the nature of the neural code and ventral stream, as well as what can be successfully investigated with fMRI.

  15. On the relation between implied and realized volatility indices: Evidence from the BRIC countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bentes, Sónia R.

    2017-09-01

    This paper investigates the relation between implied (IV) and realized volatility (RV). Using monthly data from the BRIC countries, we assess the informational content of IV in explaining future RV as well as its unbiasedness and efficiency. We employ an ADL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) and the corresponding EC (Error Correction) model and compare the results with the ones obtained from the OLS regression. Our goal is to assess the fully dynamical relations between these variables and to separate the short from the long-run effects. We found different results for the informational content of IV according to the methodologies used. However, both methods show that IV is an unbiased estimate of RV for India and that IV was not found to be efficient in any of the BRIC countries. Further, EC results reveal the presence of short and long-run effects for India, whereas Russia exhibits only short-run adjustments.

  16. Hollows on Mercury: Bright-haloed depressions imply recent endogenic activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blewett, D. T.; Fontanella, N. R.; Peel, S. E.; Zhong, E. D.; Pashai, P.; Chabot, N. L.; Denevi, B. W.; Ernst, C. M.; Izenberg, N. R.; Murchie, S. L.; Xiao, Z.; Braden, S.; Baker, D. M.; Hurwitz, D. M.; Head, J. W.; McCoy, T. J.; Nittler, L. R.; Solomon, S. C.

    2011-12-01

    The MESSENGER spacecraft began orbital observations of Mercury in March 2011. The Mercury Dual Imaging System is acquiring global monochrome and multispectral image maps. Complementing the global maps are special targeted observations with resolutions as good as 10 m/pixel for monochrome and 80 m/pixel for multispectral images. These high-resolution morphology and color images reveal an unusual landform on Mercury, characterized by small (tens of meters to a few kilometers), fresh-appearing, irregularly shaped, shallow, rimless depressions, often occurring in clusters and in association with high-reflectance materials. The features ("hollows") are commonly found on the central peaks, floors, walls, and rims of impact craters or basins, implying a link to material brought near the surface from depth during crater formation. Hollows occur in both rayed (Kuiperian) craters as well as older degraded craters. They have been identified over a range of latitudes (approximately 54 deg. S to 66 deg. N) and at longitudes for which images with adequate spatial resolution and appropriate illumination and viewing conditions have been collected. The hollows are found in locations known from prior flyby observations to have characteristic high reflectance and a shallow slope of spectral reflectance versus wavelength relative to the global average. The most likely formation mechanisms for the hollows involve recent loss of volatiles through some combination of sublimation, sputtering, outgassing, or pyroclastic volcanism. A hollow found on the south-facing inner wall of a crater at a high northern latitude suggests a correlation with peak diurnal temperatures. The involvement of volatiles in formation mechanisms for the hollows fits with growing evidence that Mercury's interior contains higher abundances of volatile materials than predicted by most scenarios for the formation of the Solar System's innermost planet. Mercury is a small rocky-metal world whose internal geological

  17. Explaining the level of credit spreads: Option-implied jump risk premia in a firm value model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cremers, K.J.M.; Driessen, J.; Maenhout, P.

    2008-01-01

    We study whether option-implied jump risk premia can explain the high observed level of credit spreads. We use a structural jump-diffusion firm value model to assess the level of credit spreads generated by option-implied jump risk premia. Prices and returns of equity index and individual options

  18. 32 CFR 701.120 - Processing requests that cite or imply PA, Freedom of Information (FOIA), or PA/FOIA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... Privacy Program § 701.120 Processing requests that cite or imply PA, Freedom of Information (FOIA), or PA... maximum release of information allowed under the Acts. (d) Processing time limits. DON activities shall... 32 National Defense 5 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Processing requests that cite or imply...

  19. Effect of HIV-1 Subtype C integrase mutations implied using molecular modeling and docking data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sachithanandham, Jaiprasath; Konda Reddy, Karnati; Solomon, King; David, Shoba; Kumar Singh, Sanjeev; Vadhini Ramalingam, Veena; Alexander Pulimood, Susanne; Cherian Abraham, Ooriyapadickal; Rupali, Pricilla; Sridharan, Gopalan; Kannangai, Rajesh

    2016-01-01

    The degree of sequence variation in HIV-1 integrase genes among infected patients and their impact on clinical response to Anti retroviral therapy (ART) is of interest. Therefore, we collected plasma samples from 161 HIV-1 infected individuals for subsequent integrase gene amplification (1087 bp). Thus, 102 complete integrase gene sequences identified as HIV-1 subtype-C was assembled. This sequence data was further used for sequence analysis and multiple sequence alignment (MSA) to assess position specific frequency of mutations within pol gene among infected individuals. We also used biophysical geometric optimization technique based molecular modeling and docking (Schrodinger suite) methods to infer differential function caused by position specific sequence mutations towards improved inhibitor selection. We thus identified accessory mutations (usually reduce susceptibility) leading to the resistance of some known integrase inhibitors in 14% of sequences in this data set. The Stanford HIV-1 drug resistance database provided complementary information on integrase resistance mutations to deduce molecular basis for such observation. Modeling and docking analysis show reduced binding by mutants for known compounds. The predicted binding values further reduced for models with combination of mutations among subtype C clinical strains. Thus, the molecular basis implied for the consequence of mutations in different variants of integrase genes of HIV-1 subtype C clinical strains from South India is reported. This data finds utility in the design, modification and development of a representative yet an improved inhibitor for HIV-1 integrase.

  20. Active shortening within the Himalayan orogenic wedge implied by the 2015 Gorkha earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whipple, Kelin X.; Shirzaei, Manoochehr; Hodges, Kip V.; Ramon Arrowsmith, J.

    2016-09-01

    Models of Himalayan neotectonics generally attribute active mountain building to slip on the Himalayan Sole Thrust, also termed the Main Himalayan Thrust, which accommodates underthrusting of the Indian Plate beneath Tibet. However, the geometry of the Himalayan Sole Thrust and thus how slip along it causes uplift of the High Himalaya are unclear. We show that the geodetic record of the 2015 Gorkha earthquake sequence significantly clarifies the architecture of the Himalayan Sole Thrust and suggests the need for revision of the canonical view of how the Himalaya grow. Inversion of Gorkha surface deformation reveals that the Himalayan Sole Thrust extends as a planar gently dipping fault surface at least 20-30 km north of the topographic front of the High Himalaya. This geometry implies that building of the high range cannot be attributed solely to slip along the Himalayan Sole Thrust over a steep ramp; instead, shortening within the Himalayan wedge is required to support the topography and maintain rapid rock uplift. Indeed, the earthquake sequence may have included a moderate rupture (Mw 6.9) on an out-of-sequence thrust fault at the foot of the High Himalaya. Such internal deformation is an expected response to sustained, focused rapid erosion, and may be common to most compressional orogens.

  1. Bound on the variation in the fine structure constant implied by Oklo data

    CERN Document Server

    Hamdan, Leila

    2015-01-01

    Dynamical models of dark energy can imply that the fine structure constant $\\alpha$ varies over cosmological time scales. Data on shifts in resonance energies $E_r$ from the Oklo natural fission reactor have been used to place restrictive bounds on the change in $\\alpha$ over the last 1.8 billion years. We review the uncertainties in these analyses, focussing on corrections to the standard estimate of $k_\\alpha\\!=\\!\\alpha\\,dE_r/d\\alpha$ due to Damour and Dyson. Guided, in part, by the best practice for assessing systematic errors in theoretical estimates spelt out by Dobaczewski et al. [in J. Phys. G: Nucl. Part. Phys. 41, 074001 (2014)], we compute these corrections in a variety of models tuned to reproduce existing nuclear data. Although the net correction is uncertain to within a factor of 2 or 3, it constitutes at most no more than 25% of the Damour-Dyson estimate of $k_\\alpha$. Making similar allowances for the uncertainties in the modeling of the operation of the Oklo reactors, we conclude that the rela...

  2. The LIM class homeobox gene lim5: implied role in CNS patterning in Xenopus and zebrafish.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toyama, R; Curtiss, P E; Otani, H; Kimura, M; Dawid, I B; Taira, M

    1995-08-01

    LIM homeobox genes are characterized by encoding proteins in which two cysteine-rich LIM domains are associated with a homeodomain. We report the isolation of a gene, named Xlim-5 in Xenopus and lim5 in the zebrafish, that is highly similar in sequence but quite distinct in expression pattern from the previously described Xlim-1/lim1 gene. In both species studied the lim5 gene is expressed in the entire ectoderm in the early gastrula embryo. The Xlim-5 gene is activated in a cell autonomous manner in ectodermal cells, and this activation is suppressed by the mesoderm inducer activin. During neurulation, expression of the lim5 gene in both the frog and fish embryo is rapidly restricted to an anterior region in the developing neural plate/keel. In the 2-day Xenopus and 24-hr zebrafish embryo, this region becomes more sharply defined, forming a strongly lim5-expressing domain in the diencephalon anterior to the midbrain-forebrain boundary. In addition, regions of less intense lim5 expression are seen in the zebrafish embryo in parts of the telencephalon, in the anterior diencephalon coincident with the postoptic commissure, and in restricted regions of the midbrain, hindbrain, and spinal cord. Expression in ventral forebrain is abolished from the 5-somite stage onward in cyclops mutant fish. These results imply a role for lim5 in the patterning of the nervous system, in particular in the early specification of the diencephalon.

  3. Microlens OGLE-2005-BLG-169 Implies Cool Neptune-Like Planets are Common

    CERN Document Server

    Gould, A; Anderson, J; Bennett, D P; Bode, M F; Bond, I A; Botzler, C S; Bramich, D M; Burgdorf, M J; Christie, G W; De Poy, D L; Dong, S; Gaudi, B S; Han, C; Horne, K; Kubiak, M; Mao, S; McCormick, J; Paczynski, B; Park, B G; Pietrzynski, G; Pogge, R W; Poindexter, S; Rattenbury, N J; Snodgrass, C; Soszynski, I; Stanek, K Z; Steele, I A; Swaving, S C; Szewczyk, O; Szymanski, M K; Udalski, A; Ulaczyk, K; Wyrzykowski, L; Yock, P C M; Zhou, A Y

    2006-01-01

    We detect a Neptune mass-ratio (q~8e-5) planetary companion to the lens star in the extremely high-magnification (A~800) microlensing event OGLE-2005-BLG-169. If the parent is a main-sequence star, it has mass M~0.5 M_sun implying a planet mass of ~13 M_earth and projected separation of ~2.7 AU. When intensely monitored over their peak, high-magnification events similar to OGLE-2005-BLG-169 have nearly complete sensitivity to Neptune mass-ratio planets with projected separations of 0.6 to 1.6 Einstein radii, corresponding to 1.6--4.3 AU in the present case. Only two other such events were monitored well enough to detect Neptunes, and so this detection by itself suggests that Neptune mass-ratio planets are common. Moreover, another Neptune was recently discovered at a similar distance from its parent star in a low-magnification event, which are more common but are individually much less sensitive to planets. Combining the two detections yields 90% upper and lower frequency limits f=0.37^{+0.30}_{-0.21} over ju...

  4. Large-scale subduction of continental crust implied by India-Asia mass-balance calculation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ingalls, Miquela; Rowley, David B.; Currie, Brian; Colman, Albert S.

    2016-11-01

    Continental crust is buoyant compared with its oceanic counterpart and resists subduction into the mantle. When two continents collide, the mass balance for the continental crust is therefore assumed to be maintained. Here we use estimates of pre-collisional crustal thickness and convergence history derived from plate kinematic models to calculate the crustal mass balance in the India-Asia collisional system. Using the current best estimates for the timing of the diachronous onset of collision between India and Eurasia, we find that about 50% of the pre-collisional continental crustal mass cannot be accounted for in the crustal reservoir preserved at Earth's surface today--represented by the mass preserved in the thickened crust that makes up the Himalaya, Tibet and much of adjacent Asia, as well as southeast Asian tectonic escape and exported eroded sediments. This implies large-scale subduction of continental crust during the collision, with a mass equivalent to about 15% of the total oceanic crustal subduction flux since 56 million years ago. We suggest that similar contamination of the mantle by direct input of radiogenic continental crustal materials during past continent-continent collisions is reflected in some ocean crust and ocean island basalt geochemistry. The subduction of continental crust may therefore contribute significantly to the evolution of mantle geochemistry.

  5. The Invariance Hypothesis Implies Domain-Specific Regions in Visual Cortex.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joel Z Leibo

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Is visual cortex made up of general-purpose information processing machinery, or does it consist of a collection of specialized modules? If prior knowledge, acquired from learning a set of objects is only transferable to new objects that share properties with the old, then the recognition system's optimal organization must be one containing specialized modules for different object classes. Our analysis starts from a premise we call the invariance hypothesis: that the computational goal of the ventral stream is to compute an invariant-to-transformations and discriminative signature for recognition. The key condition enabling approximate transfer of invariance without sacrificing discriminability turns out to be that the learned and novel objects transform similarly. This implies that the optimal recognition system must contain subsystems trained only with data from similarly-transforming objects and suggests a novel interpretation of domain-specific regions like the fusiform face area (FFA. Furthermore, we can define an index of transformation-compatibility, computable from videos, that can be combined with information about the statistics of natural vision to yield predictions for which object categories ought to have domain-specific regions in agreement with the available data. The result is a unifying account linking the large literature on view-based recognition with the wealth of experimental evidence concerning domain-specific regions.

  6. Radiocarbon constraints imply reduced carbon uptake by soils during the 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Yujie; Trumbore, Susan E.; Torn, Margaret S.; Harden, Jennifer W.; Vaughn, Lydia J.S.; Allison, Steven D.; Randerson, J.T.

    2016-01-01

    Soil is the largest terrestrial carbon reservoir and may influence the sign and magnitude of carbon cycle-climate feedbacks. Many Earth system models (ESMs) estimate a significant soil carbon sink by 2100, yet the underlying carbon dynamics determining this response have not been systematically tested against observations. We used 14C data from 157 globally distributed soil profiles sampled to 1 m depth to show that ESMs underestimated the mean age of soil carbon by more than six-fold (430±50 years vs. 3100±1800 years). Consequently, ESMs overestimated the carbon sequestration potential of soils by nearly two-fold (40±27%). These biases suggest that ESMs must better represent carbon stabilization processes and the turnover time of slow and passive reservoirs when simulating future atmospheric CO2 dynamics.

  7. Variability of Iberian upwelling implied by ERA-40 and ERA-Interim reanalyses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José M. R. Alves

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available The Regional Ocean Modeling System ocean model is used to simulate the decadal evolution of the regional waters in offshore Iberia in response to atmospheric fields given by ECMWF ERA-40 (1961–2001 and ERA-Interim (1989–2008 reanalyses. The simulated sea surface temperature (SST fields are verified against satellite AVHRR SST, and they are analysed to characterise the variability and trends of coastal upwelling in the region. Opposing trends in upwelling frequency are found at the northern limit, where upwelling has been decreasing in recent decades, and at its southern edge, where there is some evidence of increased upwelling. These results confirm previous observational studies and, more importantly, indicate that observed SST trends are not only due to changes in radiative or atmospheric heat fluxes alone but also due to changes in upwelling dynamics, suggesting that such a process may be relevant in climate change scenarios.

  8. Social impacts of climate change in Mexico: A municipality level analysis of the effects of recent and future climate change on human development and inequality

    OpenAIRE

    Andersen, Lykke E.; Verner, Dorte

    2010-01-01

    This paper uses municipality level data to estimate the general relationships between climate, income and child mortality in Mexico. Climate was found to play only a very minor role in explaining the large differences in income levels and child mortality rates observed in Mexico. This implies that Mexico is considerably less vulnerable to expected future climate change than other countries in Latin America.

  9. Suppressed MMP-9 Activity in Myocardial Infarction-Related Cardiogenic Shock Implies Diminished Rage Degradation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selejan, Simina-Ramona; Hewera, Lisa; Hohl, Matthias; Kazakov, Andrey; Ewen, Sebastian; Kindermann, Ingrid; Böhm, Michael; Link, Andreas

    2017-07-01

    Receptor for advanced glycation end products (RAGE) and its cleavage fragment soluble RAGE (sRAGE) are opposite players in inflammation. Enhanced monocytic RAGE expression and decreased plasma sRAGE levels are associated with higher mortality in infarction-related cardiogenic shock. Active matrix metalloproteinase-9 (MMP-9) has been implied in RAGE ectodomain cleavage and subsequently sRAGE shedding in vitro. We investigated MMP-9 activity in myocardial infarction-induced cardiogenic shock with regard to RAGE/sRAGE regulation. We determined MMP-9 serum activity by zymography and tissue inhibitor of matrix metalloproteinases (TIMP-1) expression by Western blot and correlated it to RAGE/sRAGE data in patients with cardiogenic shock after acute myocardial infarction (CS, n = 30), in patients with acute myocardial infarction without shock (AMI, n = 20) and in healthy volunteers (n = 20).MMP-9 activity is increased in AMI (P = 0.02 versus controls), but significantly decreased in CS with lowest levels in non-survivors (n = 13, P = 0.02 versus AMI). In all patients, MMP-9 activity correlated inversely with RAGE expression on circulating monocytes (r = -0.57; P = 0.0001; n = 50).TIMP-1 levels showed an inverse regulation in comparison to active MMP-9 with significantly decreased levels in AMI as compared with controls (P = 0.02 versus controls) and highest levels in non-survivors of CS (P RAGE-induced deleterious inflammation in cardiogenic shock.

  10. Early members of 'living fossil' lineage imply later origin of modern ray-finned fishes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giles, Sam; Xu, Guang-Hui; Near, Thomas J; Friedman, Matt

    2017-08-30

    Modern ray-finned fishes (Actinopterygii) comprise half of extant vertebrate species and are widely thought to have originated before or near the end of the Middle Devonian epoch (around 385 million years ago). Polypterids (bichirs and ropefish) represent the earliest-diverging lineage of living actinopterygians, with almost all Palaeozoic taxa interpreted as more closely related to other extant actinopterygians than to polypterids. By contrast, the earliest material assigned to the polypterid lineage is mid-Cretaceous in age (around 100 million years old), implying a quarter-of-a-billion-year palaeontological gap. Here we show that scanilepiforms, a widely distributed radiation from the Triassic period (around 252-201 million years ago), are stem polypterids. Importantly, these fossils break the long polypterid branch and expose many supposedly primitive features of extant polypterids as reversals. This shifts numerous Palaeozoic ray-fins to the actinopterygian stem, reducing the minimum age for the crown lineage by roughly 45 million years. Recalibration of molecular clocks to exclude phylogenetically reassigned Palaeozoic taxa results in estimates that the actinopterygian crown lineage is about 20-40 million years younger than was indicated by previous molecular analyses. These new dates are broadly consistent with our revised palaeontological timescale and coincident with an interval of conspicuous morphological and taxonomic diversification among ray-fins centred on the Devonian-Carboniferous boundary. A shifting timescale, combined with ambiguity in the relationships of late Palaeozoic actinopterygians, highlights this part of the fossil record as a major frontier in understanding the evolutionary assembly of modern vertebrate diversity.

  11. Zero discounting can compensate future generations for climate damage

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.D. Davidson

    2014-01-01

    In cost-benefit analysis of climate policy there are two main approaches to discounting, each with implications conflicting with our moral intuitions. Thus, discounted utilitarianism implies that we hardly need to protect future generations against climate change, while classical utilitarianism impl

  12. Zero discounting can compensate future generations for climate damage

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Davidson, M.D.

    2014-01-01

    In cost-benefit analysis of climate policy there are two main approaches to discounting, each with implications conflicting with our moral intuitions. Thus, discounted utilitarianism implies that we hardly need to protect future generations against climate change, while classical utilitarianism

  13. Abrupt climate change: can society cope?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hulme, Mike

    2003-09-15

    Consideration of abrupt climate change has generally been incorporated neither in analyses of climate-change impacts nor in the design of climate adaptation strategies. Yet the possibility of abrupt climate change triggered by human perturbation of the climate system is used to support the position of both those who urge stronger and earlier mitigative action than is currently being contemplated and those who argue that the unknowns in the Earth system are too large to justify such early action. This paper explores the question of abrupt climate change in terms of its potential implications for society, focusing on the UK and northwest Europe in particular. The nature of abrupt climate change and the different ways in which it has been defined and perceived are examined. Using the example of the collapse of the thermohaline circulation (THC), the suggested implications for society of abrupt climate change are reviewed; previous work has been largely speculative and has generally considered the implications only from economic and ecological perspectives. Some observations about the implications from a more social and behavioural science perspective are made. If abrupt climate change simply implies changes in the occurrence or intensity of extreme weather events, or an accelerated unidirectional change in climate, the design of adaptation to climate change can proceed within the existing paradigm, with appropriate adjustments. Limits to adaptation in some sectors or regions may be reached, and the costs of appropriate adaptive behaviour may be large, but strategy can develop on the basis of a predicted long-term unidirectional change in climate. It would be more challenging, however, if abrupt climate change implied a directional change in climate, as, for example, may well occur in northwest Europe following a collapse of the THC. There are two fundamental problems for society associated with such an outcome: first, the future changes in climate currently being

  14. Contributions of China’s Wood-Based Panels to CO2 Emission and Removal Implied by the Energy Consumption Standards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shanshan Wang

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Life cycle analysis on wood-based panels in terms of CO2 flux can be used to quantitatively assess the climate change contributions of these materials. In this study, the annual CO2 flux between 1990 and 2015 was calculated through gate-to-gate life cycle analysis of wood-based panels. As implied by the energy consumption standards, China’s wood-based panels used to be carbon sources during the period 1990–2007, with the average contribution to CO2 emissions of 9.20 Mt/year. The implementation of new standards and the development of Cleaner production technologies in China, decreased the energy consumption per panel. China’s wood-based panels acted as a carbon sink between 2008 and 2015, with the average contribution to CO2 removal of 31.71 Mt/year. Plywood produced the largest contributions to the emission and removal of CO2, and was followed by fiberboard and particleboard. China’s wood-based panels, with good prospects and strong demands projected in the future, can potentially contribute to climate change mitigation.

  15. How is the rate of climatic-niche evolution related to climatic-niche breadth?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisher-Reid, M Caitlin; Kozak, Kenneth H; Wiens, John J

    2012-12-01

    The rate of climatic-niche evolution is important to many research areas in ecology, evolution, and conservation biology, including responses of species to global climate change, spread of invasive species, speciation, biogeography, and patterns of species richness. Previous studies have implied that clades with higher rates of climatic-niche evolution among species should have species with narrower niche breadths, but there is also evidence suggesting the opposite pattern. However, the relationships between rate and breadth have not been explicitly analyzed. Here, we examine the relationships between the rate of climatic-niche evolution and climatic-niche breadth using phylogenetic and climatic data for 250 species in the salamander family Plethodontidae, a group showing considerable variation in both rates of climatic-niche evolution and climatic-niche breadths. Contrary to some expectations, we find no general relationship between climatic-niche breadth and the rate of climatic-niche evolution. Climatic-niche breadths for some ecologically important climatic variables considered separately (temperature seasonality and annual precipitation) do show significant relationships with the rate of climatic-niche evolution, but rates are faster in clades in which species have broader (not narrower) niche breadths. In summary, our results show that narrower niche breadths are not necessarily associated with faster rates of niche evolution. © 2012 The Author(s). Evolution© 2012 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

  16. Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn; Hansen, Ernst Jan de Place

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents the effects of climate change relevant for Denmark, including the change in mean year values as well as the extent of maximum and minimum extremes. Described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the assumptions that the scenarios are based on were outlined...... and evaluated in a Danish context. The uncertainty of the scenarios leaves major challenges that, if not addressed and taken into account in building design, will grow far more serious as climate change progresses. Cases implemented in the Danish building stock illustrate adaptation to climate change...... and illustrate how building design can include mitigating measures to counteract climate change. Cases studied were individual buildings as well as the urban environment. Furthermore the paper describes some of the issues that must be addressed, as the building sector is investing in measures to adapt to climate...

  17. Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn; Hansen, Ernst Jan de Place

    2011-01-01

    and illustrate how building design can include mitigating measures to counteract climate change. Cases studied were individual buildings as well as the urban environment. Furthermore the paper describes some of the issues that must be addressed, as the building sector is investing in measures to adapt to climate......This paper presents the effects of climate change relevant for Denmark, including the change in mean year values as well as the extent of maximum and minimum extremes. Described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the assumptions that the scenarios are based on were outlined...... and evaluated in a Danish context. The uncertainty of the scenarios leaves major challenges that, if not addressed and taken into account in building design, will grow far more serious as climate change progresses. Cases implemented in the Danish building stock illustrate adaptation to climate change...

  18. Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn; Hansen, Ernst Jan de Place

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents the effects of climate change relevant for Denmark, including the change in mean year values as well as the extent of maximum and minimum extremes. Described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the assumptions that the scenarios are based on were outlined...... and evaluated in a Danish context. The uncertainty of the scenarios leaves major challenges that, if not addressed and taken into account in building design, will grow far more serious as climate change progresses. Cases implemented in the Danish building stock illustrate adaptation to climate change...... and illustrate how building design can include mitigating measures to counteract climate change. Cases studied were individual buildings as well as the urban environment. Furthermore the paper describes some of the issues that must be addressed, as the building sector is investing in measures to adapt to climate...

  19. Deep ocean nutrients imply large latitudinal variation in particle transfer efficiency.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weber, Thomas; Cram, Jacob A; Leung, Shirley W; DeVries, Timothy; Deutsch, Curtis

    2016-08-01

    The "transfer efficiency" of sinking organic particles through the mesopelagic zone and into the deep ocean is a critical determinant of the atmosphere-ocean partition of carbon dioxide (CO2). Our ability to detect large-scale spatial variations in transfer efficiency is limited by the scarcity and uncertainties of particle flux data. Here we reconstruct deep ocean particle fluxes by diagnosing the rate of nutrient accumulation along transport pathways in a data-constrained ocean circulation model. Combined with estimates of organic matter export from the surface, these diagnosed fluxes reveal a global pattern of transfer efficiency to 1,000 m that is high (∼25%) at high latitudes and low (∼5%) in subtropical gyres, with intermediate values in the tropics. This pattern is well correlated with spatial variations in phytoplankton community structure and the export of ballast minerals, which control the size and density of sinking particles. These findings accentuate the importance of high-latitude oceans in sequestering carbon over long timescales, and highlight potential impacts on remineralization depth as phytoplankton communities respond to a warming climate.

  20. Deep ocean nutrients imply large latitudinal variation in particle transfer efficiency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weber, Thomas; Cram, Jacob A.; Leung, Shirley W.; DeVries, Timothy; Deutsch, Curtis

    2016-01-01

    The “transfer efficiency” of sinking organic particles through the mesopelagic zone and into the deep ocean is a critical determinant of the atmosphere−ocean partition of carbon dioxide (CO2). Our ability to detect large-scale spatial variations in transfer efficiency is limited by the scarcity and uncertainties of particle flux data. Here we reconstruct deep ocean particle fluxes by diagnosing the rate of nutrient accumulation along transport pathways in a data-constrained ocean circulation model. Combined with estimates of organic matter export from the surface, these diagnosed fluxes reveal a global pattern of transfer efficiency to 1,000 m that is high (∼25%) at high latitudes and low (∼5%) in subtropical gyres, with intermediate values in the tropics. This pattern is well correlated with spatial variations in phytoplankton community structure and the export of ballast minerals, which control the size and density of sinking particles. These findings accentuate the importance of high-latitude oceans in sequestering carbon over long timescales, and highlight potential impacts on remineralization depth as phytoplankton communities respond to a warming climate. PMID:27457946

  1. Deep ocean nutrients imply large latitudinal variation in particle transfer efficiency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weber, Thomas; Cram, Jacob A.; Leung, Shirley W.; DeVries, Timothy; Deutsch, Curtis

    2016-08-01

    The “transfer efficiency” of sinking organic particles through the mesopelagic zone and into the deep ocean is a critical determinant of the atmosphere-ocean partition of carbon dioxide (CO2). Our ability to detect large-scale spatial variations in transfer efficiency is limited by the scarcity and uncertainties of particle flux data. Here we reconstruct deep ocean particle fluxes by diagnosing the rate of nutrient accumulation along transport pathways in a data-constrained ocean circulation model. Combined with estimates of organic matter export from the surface, these diagnosed fluxes reveal a global pattern of transfer efficiency to 1,000 m that is high (˜25%) at high latitudes and low (˜5%) in subtropical gyres, with intermediate values in the tropics. This pattern is well correlated with spatial variations in phytoplankton community structure and the export of ballast minerals, which control the size and density of sinking particles. These findings accentuate the importance of high-latitude oceans in sequestering carbon over long timescales, and highlight potential impacts on remineralization depth as phytoplankton communities respond to a warming climate.

  2. Climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marchal, V.; Dellink, R.; Vuuren, D.P. van; Clapp, C.; Chateau, J.; Magné, B.; Lanzi, E.; Vliet, J. van

    2012-01-01

    This chapter analyses the policy implications of the climate change challenge. Are current emission reduction pledges made in Copenhagen/Cancun enough to stabilise the climate and limit global average temperature increase to 2 oC? If not, what will the consequences be? What alternative growth pathwa

  3. Climate Controlled?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harney, John O.

    2014-01-01

    More than 250 higher education leaders from campuses across the U.S. met last week in Boston for the 2014 Presidential Summit on Climate Leadership. The summit was organized by Second Nature, the supporting organization for the American College & University Presidents' Climate Commitment (ACUPCC). Almost 700 colleges and universities have…

  4. Quantification of climate change effects on extreme precipitation used for high resolution hydrologic design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    2012-01-01

    Design of urban drainage structures should include the climatic changes anticipated over the technical lifetime of the system. In Northern Europe climate changes implies increasing occurrences of extreme rainfall. Three approaches to quantify the impact of climate changes on extreme rainfall are ...

  5. The Role of Implied Volatility in Forecasting Future Realized Volatility and Jumps in Foreign Exchange, Stock and Bond Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Bent Jesper

    , and to the separate forecasting of the realized components. We also introduce a new vector HAR (VecHAR) model for the resulting simultaneous system, controlling for possible endogeneity issues in the forecasting equations. We show that implied volatility contains incremental information about future volatility......We study the forecasting of future realized volatility in the stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets, as well as the continuous sample path and jump components of this, from variables in the information set, including implied volatility backed out from option prices. Recent nonparametric...... statistical techniques are used to separate realized volatility into its continuous and jump components, thus enhancing forecasting performance as shown by Andersen et al. (2005). We generalize the heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) model to include implied volatility as an additional regressor...

  6. Wealth reallocation and sustainability under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fenichel, Eli P.; Levin, Simon A.; McCay, Bonnie; St. Martin, Kevin; Abbott, Joshua K.; Pinsky, Malin L.

    2016-03-01

    Climate change is often described as the greatest environmental challenge of our time. In addition, a changing climate can reallocate natural capital, change the value of all forms of capital and lead to mass redistribution of wealth. Here we explain how the inclusive wealth framework provides a means to measure shifts in the amounts and distribution of wealth induced by climate change. Biophysical effects on prices, pre-existing institutions and socio-ecological changes related to shifts in climate cause wealth to change in ways not correlated with biophysical changes. This implies that sustainable development in the face of climate change requires a coherent approach that integrates biophysical and social measurement. Inclusive wealth provides a measure that indicates sustainability and has the added benefit of providing an organizational framework for integrating the multiple disciplines studying global change.

  7. On the Sensitivity of Atmospheric Model Implied Ocean Heat Transport to the Dominant Terms of the Surface Energy Balance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gleckler, P J

    2004-11-03

    The oceanic meridional heat transport (T{sub o}) implied by an atmospheric General Circulation Model (GCM) can help evaluate a model's readiness for coupling with an ocean GCM. In this study we examine the T{sub o} from benchmark experiments of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project, and evaluate the sensitivity of T{sub o} to the dominant terms of the surface energy balance. The implied global ocean TO in the Southern Hemisphere of many models is equatorward, contrary to most observationally-based estimates. By constructing a hybrid (model corrected by observations) T{sub o}, an earlier study demonstrated that the implied heat transport is critically sensitive to the simulated shortwave cloud radiative effects, which have been argued to be principally responsible for the Southern Hemisphere problem. Systematic evaluation of one model in a later study suggested that the implied T{sub o} could be equally as sensitive to a model's ocean surface latent heat flux. In this study we revisit the problem with more recent simulations, making use of estimates of ocean surface fluxes to construct two additional hybrid calculations. The results of the present study demonstrate that indeed the implied T{sub o} of an atmospheric model is very sensitive to problems in not only the surface net shortwave, but the latent heat flux as well. Many models underestimate the shortwave radiation reaching the surface in the low latitudes, and overestimate the latent heat flux in the same region. The additional hybrid transport calculations introduced here could become useful model diagnostic tests as estimates of implied ocean surface fluxes are improved.

  8. Climate Sensitivity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lindzen, Richard [M.I.T.

    2011-11-09

    Warming observed thus far is entirely consistent with low climate sensitivity. However, the result is ambiguous because the sources of climate change are numerous and poorly specified. Model predictions of substantial warming aredependent on positive feedbacks associated with upper level water vapor and clouds, but models are notably inadequate in dealing with clouds and the impacts of clouds and water vapor are intimately intertwined. Various approaches to measuring sensitivity based on the physics of the feedbacks will be described. The results thus far point to negative feedbacks. Problems with these approaches as well as problems with the concept of climate sensitivity will be described.

  9. The Role of Implied Volatility in Forecasting Future Realized Volatility and Jumps in Foreign Exchange, Stock and Bond Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Bent Jesper

    We study the forecasting of future realized volatility in the stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets, as well as the continuous sample path and jump components of this, from variables in the information set, including implied volatility backed out from option prices. Recent nonparametric...... statistical techniques are used to separate realized volatility into its continuous and jump components, thus enhancing forecasting performance as shown by Andersen et al. (2005). We generalize the heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) model to include implied volatility as an additional regressor...

  10. Managing Climate Change Risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jones, R. [CSIRO Atmospheric Research, PMB1 Aspendale, Victoria 3195 (Australia)

    2003-07-01

    Issues of uncertainty, scale and delay between action and response mean that 'dangerous' climate change is best managed within a risk assessment framework that evolves as new information is gathered. Risk can be broadly defined as the combination of likelihood and consequence; the latter measured as vulnerability to greenhouse-induced climate change. The most robust way to assess climate change damages in a probabilistic framework is as the likelihood of critical threshold exceedance. Because vulnerability is dominated by local factors, global vulnerability is the aggregation of many local impacts being forced beyond their coping ranges. Several case studies, generic sea level rise and temperature, coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef and water supply in an Australian catchment, are used to show how local risk assessments can be assessed then expressed as a function of global warming. Impacts treated thus can be aggregated to assess global risks consistent with Article 2 of the UNFCCC. A 'proof of concept' example is then used to show how the stabilisation of greenhouse gases can constrain the likelihood of exceeding critical thresholds at both the both local and global scale. This analysis suggests that even if the costs of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and the benefits of avoiding climate damages can be estimated, the likelihood of being able to meet a cost-benefit target is limited by both physical and socio-economic uncertainties. In terms of managing climate change risks, adaptation will be most effective at reducing vulnerability likely to occur at low levels of warming. Successive efforts to mitigate greenhouse gases will reduce the likelihood of reaching levels of global warming from the top down, with the highest potential temperatures being avoided first, irrespective of contributing scientific uncertainties. This implies that the first cuts in emissions will always produce the largest economic benefits in terms of avoided

  11. Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... events, such as hurricanes and wildfires. These can cause death, injuries, stress, and mental health problems. Researchers are studying the best ways to lessen climate change and reduce its impact on our health. NIH: ...

  12. Climate Reconstructions

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA Paleoclimatology Program archives reconstructions of past climatic conditions derived from paleoclimate proxies, in addition to the Program's large holdings...

  13. On a problematic procedure to manipulate response biases in recognition experiments: the case of "implied" base rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bröder, Arndt; Malejka, Simone

    2017-07-01

    The experimental manipulation of response biases in recognition-memory tests is an important means for testing recognition models and for estimating their parameters. The textbook manipulations for binary-response formats either vary the payoff scheme or the base rate of targets in the recognition test, with the latter being the more frequently applied procedure. However, some published studies reverted to implying different base rates by instruction rather than actually changing them. Aside from unnecessarily deceiving participants, this procedure may lead to cognitive conflicts that prompt response strategies unknown to the experimenter. To test our objection, implied base rates were compared to actual base rates in a recognition experiment followed by a post-experimental interview to assess participants' response strategies. The behavioural data show that recognition-memory performance was estimated to be lower in the implied base-rate condition. The interview data demonstrate that participants used various second-order response strategies that jeopardise the interpretability of the recognition data. We thus advice researchers against substituting actual base rates with implied base rates.

  14. The PMC (Preparata, Metze and Chien) System Level Fault Model: Maximality Properties of the Implied Faulty Sets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1983-05-15

    which no two modules test each other, and the number of faulty modules is smalL In this peper , we show that the implied faulty sets of one-step v...test outcoies Le., an outcome aij for emh (i J) in TID is called a on*~. The diagnosis problem cosists in partitioning S nto th set Gs of non faulty

  15. The Role of Implied Motion in Engaging Audiences for Health Promotion: Encouraging Naps on a College Campus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackert, Michael; Lazard, Allison; Guadagno, Marie; Hughes Wagner, Jessica

    2014-01-01

    Objective: Lack of sleep among college students negatively impacts health and academic outcomes. Building on research that implied motion imagery increases brain activity, this project tested visual design strategies to increase viewers' engagement with a health communication campaign promoting napping to improve sleep habits. Participants:…

  16. The Language of Love?--Verbal versus Implied Consent at First Heterosexual Intercourse: Implications for Contraceptive Use

    Science.gov (United States)

    Higgins, Jenny A.; Trussell, James; Moore, Nelwyn B.; Davidson, J. Kenneth, Sr.

    2010-01-01

    Background: Little is known about how young people communicate about initiating intercourse. Purpose: This study was designed to gauge the prevalence of implied versus verbal consent at first intercourse in a U.S. college population, assess effects of consent type on contraceptive use, and explore the influences of gender, race and other factors.…

  17. 16 CFR 303.40 - Use of terms in written advertisements that imply presence of a fiber.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 16 Commercial Practices 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Use of terms in written advertisements that... IDENTIFICATION ACT § 303.40 Use of terms in written advertisements that imply presence of a fiber. The use of terms in written advertisements, including advertisements disseminated through the Internet and...

  18. A bijection which implies Melzer's polynomial identities the $\\chi${1,1}^{(p,p+1)} case

    CERN Document Server

    Foda, O E; Foda, O; Warnaar, S O

    1995-01-01

    We obtain a bijection between certain lattice paths and partitions. This implies a proof of polynomial identities conjectured by Melzer. In a limit, these identities reduce to Rogers--Ramanujan-type identities for the \\chi_{1,1}^{(p,p+1)}(q) Virasoro characters, conjectured by the Stony Brook group.

  19. 76 FR 60489 - Lynn E. Stevenson; Notice of Termination of License by Implied Surrender and Soliciting Comments...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-09-29

    ... Energy Regulatory Commission Lynn E. Stevenson; Notice of Termination of License by Implied Surrender and... No.: 8866-009. c. Date Initiated: September 23, 2011 (notice date). d. Licensee: Lynn E. Stevenson. e... Lynn E. Stevenson.\\1\\ The project has not operated since a downstream landslide in 1993 and has...

  20. Climate Strategic Soil Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rattan Lal

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available The complex and strong link between soil degradation, climate change and food insecurity is a global challenge. Sustainable agricultural systems must be integral to any agenda to address climate change and variability, improve renewable fresh water supply and quality, restore degraded soils and ecosystems and advance food security. These challenges are being exacerbated by increasing population and decreasing per capita arable land area and renewable fresh water supply, the increasing frequency of extreme events, the decreasing resilience of agroecosystems, an increasing income and affluent lifestyle with growing preference towards meat-based diet and a decreasing soil quality and use efficiency of inputs. Reversing these downward spirals implies the implementation of proven technologies, such as conservation agriculture, integrated nutrient management, precision agriculture, agroforestry systems, etc. Restoration of degraded soil and desertified ecosystems and the creation of positive soil and ecosystem C budgets are important. Urban agriculture and green roofs can reduce the energy footprint of production chains for urban and non-urban areas and enhance the recycling of by-products. Researchable priorities include sustainable land use and soil/water management options, judicious soil governance and modus operandi towards payments to land managers for the provisioning of ecosystem services.

  1. Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Druyan, Leonard M.

    2012-01-01

    Climate models is a very broad topic, so a single volume can only offer a small sampling of relevant research activities. This volume of 14 chapters includes descriptions of a variety of modeling studies for a variety of geographic regions by an international roster of authors. The climate research community generally uses the rubric climate models to refer to organized sets of computer instructions that produce simulations of climate evolution. The code is based on physical relationships that describe the shared variability of meteorological parameters such as temperature, humidity, precipitation rate, circulation, radiation fluxes, etc. Three-dimensional climate models are integrated over time in order to compute the temporal and spatial variations of these parameters. Model domains can be global or regional and the horizontal and vertical resolutions of the computational grid vary from model to model. Considering the entire climate system requires accounting for interactions between solar insolation, atmospheric, oceanic and continental processes, the latter including land hydrology and vegetation. Model simulations may concentrate on one or more of these components, but the most sophisticated models will estimate the mutual interactions of all of these environments. Advances in computer technology have prompted investments in more complex model configurations that consider more phenomena interactions than were possible with yesterday s computers. However, not every attempt to add to the computational layers is rewarded by better model performance. Extensive research is required to test and document any advantages gained by greater sophistication in model formulation. One purpose for publishing climate model research results is to present purported advances for evaluation by the scientific community.

  2. Late Quaternary changes in climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Holmgren, K.; Karlen, W. [Stockholm Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Physical Geography

    1998-12-01

    This review concerns the Quaternary climate with an emphasis on the last 200 000 years. The present state of art in this field is described and evaluated. The review builds on a thorough examination of classic and recent literature. General as well as detailed patterns in climate are described and the forcing factors and feed-back effects are discussed. Changes in climate occur on all time-scales. During more than 90% of the Quaternary period earth has experienced vast ice sheets, i.e. glaciations have been more normal for the period than the warm interglacial conditions we face today. Major changes in climate, such as the 100 000 years glacial/interglacial cycle, are forced by the Milankovitch three astronomical cycles. Because the cycles have different length climate changes on earth do not follow a simple pattern and it is not possible to find perfect analogues of a certain period in the geological record. Recent discoveries include the observation that major changes in climate seem to occur at the same time on both hemispheres, although the astronomical theory implies a time-lag between latitudes. This probably reflects the influence of feed-back effects within the climate system. Another recent finding of importance is the rapid fluctuations that seem to be a normal process. When earth warmed after the last glaciation temperature jumps of up to 10 deg C occurred within less than a decade and precipitation more than doubled within the same time. The forcing factors behind these rapid fluctuations are not well understood but are believed to be a result of major re-organisations in the oceanic circulation. Realizing that nature, on its own, can cause rapid climate changes of this magnitude put some perspective on the anthropogenic global warming debate, where it is believed that the release of greenhouse gases will result in a global warming of a few C. To understand the forcing behind natural rapid climate changes appears as important as to understand the role

  3. A history of climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hastrup, Kirsten Blinkenberg

    2017-01-01

    they were first described and became known to outsiders, it is shown how flexibility and mobility were always preconditions for survival in this environment. Then, they were trapped in too much ice, while now they have to negotiate a rapidly melting environment. In both cases their response is deeply......This article presents a small community of High Arctic hunters (the Inughuit in North West Greenland) who have always had to negotiate climatic changes with great impact on their living conditions. This points us toward the natural-social entanglements implied in the notion of the Anthropocene...

  4. Carbon footprints and carbon stocks reveal climate-friendly coffee production

    OpenAIRE

    Rikxoort, Henk; Schroth, Götz; Läderach, Peter; Rodríguez-Sánchez, Beatriz

    2014-01-01

    International audience; Coffee production is impacting the climate by emitting greenhouse gasses. Coffee production is also vulnerable to climate change. As a consequence, the coffee sector is interested in climate-friendly forms of coffee production, but there is no consensus of what exactly this implies. Therefore, we studied two aspects of the climate impact of coffee production: the standing carbon stocks in the production systems and the product carbon footprint, which measures the green...

  5. Climate adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinzig, Ann P.

    2015-03-01

    This paper is intended as a brief introduction to climate adaptation in a conference devoted otherwise to the physics of sustainable energy. Whereas mitigation involves measures to reduce the probability of a potential event, such as climate change, adaptation refers to actions that lessen the impact of climate change. Mitigation and adaptation differ in other ways as well. Adaptation does not necessarily have to be implemented immediately to be effective; it only needs to be in place before the threat arrives. Also, adaptation does not necessarily require global, coordinated action; many effective adaptation actions can be local. Some urban communities, because of land-use change and the urban heat-island effect, currently face changes similar to some expected under climate change, such as changes in water availability, heat-related morbidity, or changes in disease patterns. Concern over those impacts might motivate the implementation of measures that would also help in climate adaptation, despite skepticism among some policy makers about anthropogenic global warming. Studies of ancient civilizations in the southwestern US lends some insight into factors that may or may not be important to successful adaptation.

  6. Aerosols, Clouds, and Precipitation as Scale Interactions in the Climate System and Controls on Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donner, Leo

    Clouds are major regulators of atmospheric energy flows. Their character depends on atmospheric composition, dynamics, and thermodynamic state. Clouds can assume organized structures whose scales are planetary, while processes important for determining basic properties occur on the scale of microns. The range of processes, scales, and interactions among them has precluded the development of concise theories for the role of clouds in climate, and limitations in modeling clouds in complex climate models remain among the key uncertainties in understanding and projecting climate change. The distribution function of vertical velocities (updraft speeds) in clouds is an important control on climate forcing by clouds and possibly a strong correlate with climate sensitivity. (Climate forcing refers to the change in Earth's energy balance as atmospheric composition changes, in particular, due to human activity. Climate sensitivity is defined here as the equilibrium change in globally averaged annual surface temperature as a result of doubled carbon dioxide.) Vertical velocities are central because they determine the thermodynamic environment governing phase changes of water, with both equilibrium and non-equilibrium phenomena important. The spatial and temporal spectra of relevant vertical velocities includes scales both numerically resolved by climate models and below their resolution limit. The latter implies a requirement to parameterize these smaller scale motions in models. The scale dependence of vertical velocities and emerging observational constraints on their distribution provide new opportunities for representing aerosols, clouds, and precipitation in climate models. Success in doing so could provide important breakthroughs in understanding both climate forcing and sensitivity.

  7. Dynamic Estimation of Volatility Risk Premia and Investor Risk Aversion from Option-Implied and Realized Volatilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bollerslev, Tim; Gibson, Michael; Zhou, Hao

    This paper proposes a method for constructing a volatility risk premium, or investor risk aversion, index. The method is intuitive and simple to implement, relying on the sample moments of the recently popularized model-free realized and option-implied volatility measures. A small-scale Monte Car...... relate to a set of macro-finance state variables. We also find that the extracted volatility risk premium helps predict future stock market returns....

  8. Climate Sensitivity, Sea Level, and Atmospheric CO2

    CERN Document Server

    Hansen, James; Russell, Gary; Kharecha, Pushker

    2012-01-01

    Cenozoic temperature, sea level and CO2 co-variations provide insights into climate sensitivity to external forcings and sea level sensitivity to climate change. Pleistocene climate oscillations imply a fast-feedback climate sensitivity 3 {\\pm} 1 {\\deg}C for 4 W/m2 CO2 forcing for the average of climate states between the Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the error estimate being large and partly subjective because of continuing uncertainty about LGM global surface climate. Slow feedbacks, especially change of ice sheet size and atmospheric CO2, amplify total Earth system sensitivity. Ice sheet response time is poorly defined, but we suggest that hysteresis and slow response in current ice sheet models are exaggerated. We use a global model, simplified to essential processes, to investigate state-dependence of climate sensitivity, finding a strong increase in sensitivity when global temperature reaches early Cenozoic and higher levels, as increased water vapor eliminates the tropopause. It follows that...

  9. Dynamic Estimation of Volatility Risk Premia and Investor Risk Aversion from Option-Implied and Realized Volatilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bollerslev, Tim; Gibson, Michael; Zhou, Hao

    This paper proposes a method for constructing a volatility risk premium, or investor risk aversion, index. The method is intuitive and simple to implement, relying on the sample moments of the recently popularized model-free realized and option-implied volatility measures. A small-scale Monte Car...... relate to a set of macro-finance state variables. We also find that the extracted volatility risk premium helps predict future stock market returns.......This paper proposes a method for constructing a volatility risk premium, or investor risk aversion, index. The method is intuitive and simple to implement, relying on the sample moments of the recently popularized model-free realized and option-implied volatility measures. A small-scale Monte Carlo...... experiment confirms that the procedure works well in practice. Implementing the procedure with actual S&P500 option-implied volatilities and high-frequency five-minute-based realized volatilities indicates significant temporal dependencies in the estimated stochastic volatility risk premium, which we in turn...

  10. Impact of solar panels on global climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Aixue; Levis, Samuel; Meehl, Gerald A.; Han, Weiqing; Washington, Warren M.; Oleson, Keith W.; van Ruijven, Bas J.; He, Mingqiong; Strand, Warren G.

    2016-03-01

    Regardless of the harmful effects of burning fossil fuels on global climate, other energy sources will become more important in the future because fossil fuels could run out by the early twenty-second century given the present rate of consumption. This implies that sooner or later humanity will rely heavily on renewable energy sources. Here we model the effects of an idealized large-scale application of renewable energy on global and regional climate relative to a background climate of the representative concentration pathway 2.6 scenario (RCP2.6; ref. ). We find that solar panels alone induce regional cooling by converting incoming solar energy to electricity in comparison to the climate without solar panels. The conversion of this electricity to heat, primarily in urban areas, increases regional and global temperatures which compensate the cooling effect. However, there are consequences involved with these processes that modulate the global atmospheric circulation, resulting in changes in regional precipitation.

  11. Tropical convection and climate sensitivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Ian Nobuo

    Surface temperature has become a popular measure of climate change, but it does not provide the most critical test of climate models. This thesis presents new methods to evaluate climate models based on processes determining the climate sensitivity to radiative forcing from atmospheric greenhouse gases. Cloud radiative feedbacks depend on temperature and relative humidity profiles in addition to surface temperature, through the dependence of cloud type on boundary layer buoyancy. Buoyancy provides a reference to which the onset of deep convection is invariant, and gives a compact description of sea surface temperature changes and cloud feedbacks suitable for diagnostics and as a basis for simplified climate models. This thesis also addresses uncertainties in climate sensitivity involving terrestrial ecosystem responses to global warming. Different diagnostics support different conclusions about atmospheric transport model errors that could imply either stronger or weaker northern terrestrial carbon sinks. Equilibrium boundary layer concepts were previously used in idealized tropical climate models, and are extended here to develop a diagnostic of boundary layer trace gas transport and mixing. Hypotheses linking surface temperature to climate and precipitation sensitivity were tested in this thesis using comprehensive and idealized climate model simulations, and observational datasets. The results do not support the thermostat hypothesis that predicts deep cloud cover will increase with radiative forcing and limit sea surface temperatures to the maximum present-day warm pool temperature. Warm pool temperatures increased along with or even faster than the tropical average over the past several decades, while diagnosed deep cloud cover has not significantly increased, in agreement with global warming simulations. Precipitation sensitivity also depends on more than surface temperature alone, including thermodynamic profiles and air-sea temperature differences. The

  12. Does experience imply learning?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Anand, Jaideep; Mulotte, Louis; Ren, Charlotte R.

    Research traditionally uses experiential learning arguments to explain the existence of a positive relationship between repetition of an activity and performance. We propose an additional interpretation of this relationship in the context of discrete corporate development activities. We argue that

  13. The meaning and measurement of implementation climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bergmire Dawn M

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Climate has a long history in organizational studies, but few theoretical models integrate the complex effects of climate during innovation implementation. In 1996, a theoretical model was proposed that organizations could develop a positive climate for implementation by making use of various policies and practices that promote organizational members' means, motives, and opportunities for innovation use. The model proposes that implementation climate--or the extent to which organizational members perceive that innovation use is expected, supported, and rewarded--is positively associated with implementation effectiveness. The implementation climate construct holds significant promise for advancing scientific knowledge about the organizational determinants of innovation implementation. However, the construct has not received sufficient scholarly attention, despite numerous citations in the scientific literature. In this article, we clarify the meaning of implementation climate, discuss several measurement issues, and propose guidelines for empirical study. Discussion Implementation climate differs from constructs such as organizational climate, culture, or context in two important respects: first, it has a strategic focus (implementation, and second, it is innovation-specific. Measuring implementation climate is challenging because the construct operates at the organizational level, but requires the collection of multi-dimensional perceptual data from many expected innovation users within an organization. In order to avoid problems with construct validity, assessments of within-group agreement of implementation climate measures must be carefully considered. Implementation climate implies a high degree of within-group agreement in climate perceptions. However, researchers might find it useful to distinguish implementation climate level (the average of implementation climate perceptions from implementation climate strength (the

  14. Biotic and Climatic Velocity Identify Contrasting Areas of Vulnerability to Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carroll, Carlos; Lawler, Joshua J; Roberts, David R; Hamann, Andreas

    2015-01-01

    Metrics that synthesize the complex effects of climate change are essential tools for mapping future threats to biodiversity and predicting which species are likely to adapt in place to new climatic conditions, disperse and establish in areas with newly suitable climate, or face the prospect of extirpation. The most commonly used of such metrics is the velocity of climate change, which estimates the speed at which species must migrate over the earth's surface to maintain constant climatic conditions. However, "analog-based" velocities, which represent the actual distance to where analogous climates will be found in the future, may provide contrasting results to the more common form of velocity based on local climate gradients. Additionally, whereas climatic velocity reflects the exposure of organisms to climate change, resultant biotic effects are dependent on the sensitivity of individual species as reflected in part by their climatic niche width. This has motivated development of biotic velocity, a metric which uses data on projected species range shifts to estimate the velocity at which species must move to track their climatic niche. We calculated climatic and biotic velocity for the Western Hemisphere for 1961-2100, and applied the results to example ecological and conservation planning questions, to demonstrate the potential of such analog-based metrics to provide information on broad-scale patterns of exposure and sensitivity. Geographic patterns of biotic velocity for 2954 species of birds, mammals, and amphibians differed from climatic velocity in north temperate and boreal regions. However, both biotic and climatic velocities were greatest at low latitudes, implying that threats to equatorial species arise from both the future magnitude of climatic velocities and the narrow climatic tolerances of species in these regions, which currently experience low seasonal and interannual climatic variability. Biotic and climatic velocity, by approximating lower and

  15. Climate and development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Biswas, A.K.

    1984-01-01

    The authors review the existing knowledge on the inter-relationships between climate and patterns of development; the impact variables on water and agricultural development; and the effects of climate on human health. A case study is also given of the effect of climatic fluctuations on human population in Mesopotamia. Contents: Climate and Development; Climate and Agriculture; Climate and Water Management; Climate and Health; Effects of Climate Fluctation on Human Populations; Study of Mesopotamian Society.

  16. Uncertainty in climate science and climate policy

    CERN Document Server

    Rougier, Jonathan

    2014-01-01

    This essay, written by a statistician and a climate scientist, describes our view of the gap that exists between current practice in mainstream climate science, and the practical needs of policymakers charged with exploring possible interventions in the context of climate change. By `mainstream' we mean the type of climate science that dominates in universities and research centres, which we will term `academic' climate science, in contrast to `policy' climate science; aspects of this distinction will become clearer in what follows. In a nutshell, we do not think that academic climate science equips climate scientists to be as helpful as they might be, when involved in climate policy assessment. Partly, we attribute this to an over-investment in high resolution climate simulators, and partly to a culture that is uncomfortable with the inherently subjective nature of climate uncertainty.

  17. Small-Maturity Asymptotics for the At-The-Money Implied Volatility Slope in Lévy Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerhold, Stefan; Gülüm, I. Cetin; Pinter, Arpad

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT We consider the at-the-money (ATM) strike derivative of implied volatility as the maturity tends to zero. Our main results quantify the behaviour of the slope for infinite activity exponential Lévy models including a Brownian component. As auxiliary results, we obtain asymptotic expansions of short maturity ATM digital call options, using Mellin transform asymptotics. Finally, we discuss when the ATM slope is consistent with the steepness of the smile wings, as given by Lee’s moment formula. PMID:27660537

  18. Climatic changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Majgaard Krarup, Jonna

    2014-01-01

    According to Cleo Paskal climatic changes are environmental changes. They are global, but their impact is local, and manifests them selves in the landscape, in our cities, in open urban spaces, and in everyday life. The landscape and open public spaces will in many cases be the sites where...... be addressed in order to develop and support social sustainability and identification. This paper explore and discuss how the handling of climatic changes in landscape and open urban spaces might hold a potential for them to become common goods....... spaces. From Henri LeFebvre’s thinking we learn that the production of space is a feed back loop, where the space is constructed when we attach meaning to it, and when the space offers meaning to us. Spatial identity is thus not the same as identifying with space. Without indentifying with space, space...

  19. Last interglacial temperature evolution – a model inter-comparison

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bakker, P.; Stone, E.J.; Charbit, S.; Gröger, M.; Krebs- Kanzow, U.; Ritz, S.P.; Varma, V.; Khon, S.; Lunt, D.J.; Mikolajewicz, U.; Prange, M.; Renssen, H.; Schneider, B.; Schulz, M.

    2012-01-01

    Abstract. There is a growing number of proxy-based reconstructions detailing the climatic changes during the Last Interglacial period. This period is of special interest because large parts of the globe were characterized by a warmer-than-present-day climate, making this period an interesting test b

  20. Critical evaluation of climate syntheses to benchmark CMIP6/PMIP4 127 ka Last Interglacial simulations in the high-latitude regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capron, E.; Govin, A.; Feng, R.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Wolff, E. W.

    2017-07-01

    The Last Interglacial (LIG, ∼129-116 thousand years ago, ka) represents an excellent case study to investigate the response of sensitive components of the Earth System and mechanisms of high-latitude amplification to a climate warmer than present-day. The Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 4, hereafter referred as PMIP4) and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 6, hereafter referred as CMIP6) are coordinating the design of (1) a LIG Tier 1 equilibrium simulation to simulate the climate response at 127 ka, a time interval associated with a strong orbital forcing and greenhouse gas concentrations close to preindustrial levels and (2) associated Tier 2 sensitivity experiments to examine the role of the ocean, vegetation and dust feedbacks in modulating the response to this orbital forcing. Evaluating the capability of the CMIP6/PMIP4 models to reproduce the 127 ka polar and sub-polar climate will require appropriate data-based benchmarks which are currently missing. Based on a recent data synthesis that offers the first spatio-temporal representation of high-latitude (i.e. poleward of 40°N and 40°S) surface temperature evolution during the LIG, we produce a new 126-128 ka time slab, hereafter named 127 ka time slice. This 127 ka time slice represents surface temperature anomalies relative to preindustrial and is associated with quantitative estimates of the uncertainties related to relative dating and surface temperature reconstruction methods. It illustrates warmer-than-preindustrial conditions in the high-latitude regions of both hemispheres. In particular, summer sea surface temperatures (SST) in the North Atlantic region were on average 1.1 °C (with a standard error of the mean of 0.7 °C) warmer relative to preindustrial and 1.8 °C (with a standard error of the mean of 0.8 °C) in the Southern Ocean. In Antarctica, average 127 ka annual surface air temperature was 2.2 °C (with a standard error of the mean of 1.4 °C) warmer

  1. Packaging signals in two single-stranded RNA viruses imply a conserved assembly mechanism and geometry of the packaged genome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dykeman, Eric C; Stockley, Peter G; Twarock, Reidun

    2013-09-09

    The current paradigm for assembly of single-stranded RNA viruses is based on a mechanism involving non-sequence-specific packaging of genomic RNA driven by electrostatic interactions. Recent experiments, however, provide compelling evidence for sequence specificity in this process both in vitro and in vivo. The existence of multiple RNA packaging signals (PSs) within viral genomes has been proposed, which facilitates assembly by binding coat proteins in such a way that they promote the protein-protein contacts needed to build the capsid. The binding energy from these interactions enables the confinement or compaction of the genomic RNAs. Identifying the nature of such PSs is crucial for a full understanding of assembly, which is an as yet untapped potential drug target for this important class of pathogens. Here, for two related bacterial viruses, we determine the sequences and locations of their PSs using Hamiltonian paths, a concept from graph theory, in combination with bioinformatics and structural studies. Their PSs have a common secondary structure motif but distinct consensus sequences and positions within the respective genomes. Despite these differences, the distributions of PSs in both viruses imply defined conformations for the packaged RNA genomes in contact with the protein shell in the capsid, consistent with a recent asymmetric structure determination of the MS2 virion. The PS distributions identified moreover imply a preferred, evolutionarily conserved assembly pathway with respect to the RNA sequence with potentially profound implications for other single-stranded RNA viruses known to have RNA PSs, including many animal and human pathogens.

  2. Estimating the implied cost of carbon in future scenarios using a CGE model: The Case of Colorado

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hannum, Christopher; Cutler, Harvey; Iverson, Terrence; Keyser, David

    2017-03-01

    Using Colorado as a case study, we develop a state-level computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that reflects the roles of coal, natural gas, wind, solar, and hydroelectricity in supplying electricity. We focus on the economic impact of implementing Colorado's existing Renewable Portfolio Standard, updated in 2013. This requires that 25% of state generation come from qualifying renewable sources by 2020. We evaluate the policy under a variety of assumptions regarding wind integration costs and assumptions on the persistence of federal subsidies for wind. Specifically, we estimate the implied price of carbon as the carbon price at which a state-level policy would pass a state-level cost-benefit analysis, taking account of estimated greenhouse gas emission reductions and ancillary benefits from corresponding reductions in criteria pollutants. Our findings suggest that without the Production Tax Credit (federal aid), the state policy of mandating renewable power generation (RPS) is costly to state actors, with an implied cost of carbon of about $17 per ton of CO2 with a 3% discount rate. Federal aid makes the decision between natural gas and wind nearly cost neutral for Colorado.

  3. Climate - Options for broadening climate policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aerts JCJH; Asselt H van; Bakker SJA; Bayangos V; Beers C van; Berk MM; Biermann F; Bouwer LM; Bree L van; Coninck HC de; Dorland K; Elzen ME den; Gupta J; Heemst J van; Jansen JC; Kok MTJ; Nabuurs GJ; Veraert J; Verhagen A; Kok MTJ; Coninck HC de; ECN; KMD

    2005-01-01

    In this study ways are explored to increase the policy coherence between the climate regime and a selected number of climate relevant policy areas, by adding a non-climate policy track to national and international climate strategies. The report assesses first the potential, synergies and trade-offs

  4. Incremental change, transition or transformation? optimising change pathways for climate adaptation in spatial planning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roggema, R.E.; Vermeend, T.; Van den Dobbelsteen, A.A.J.F.

    2012-01-01

    In order to incorporate climate adaptation in spatial planning change is required, because climate change impacts the way we live. This implies that spatial planning, as the arranger of the spatial organisation and layout needs to be able to support this change. Current spatial planning is not yet w

  5. Extreme precipitation and temperature responses to circulation patterns in current climate: statistical approaches

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Photiadou, C.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is likely to influence the frequency of extreme extremes - temperature, precipitation and hydrological extremes, which implies increasing risks for flood and drought events in Europe. In current climate, European countries were often not sufficiently prepared to deal with the great so

  6. Climate Concerns

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    TANG YUANKAI

    2010-01-01

    @@ From June to August 2009, the western part of northeast China's Liaoning Province suffered from drought and extremely high temperatures, which damaged about 4.9 million hectares of farmland. Almost 827,000 hectares yielded no harvest as a result of the drought and 3 million people were impacted. The villagers might not know that a conference held in December on the other side of the globe has something to do with their hard times, but many are waking up to the reality that the disastrous effects of climate change have already begun to exert great influence on people's lives.

  7. Climate Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2005-01-01

    According to the National Academy of Sciences in American,the Earth's surface temperature has risen by about 1 degree Fahrenheit in the past century, with accelerated warming during the past two decades. There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.Human activities have altered the chemical composition of the atmosphere through the buildup of greenhouse gases-primarily carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. The heat-trapping property of these gases is undisputed although uncertainties exist about exactly how earth's climate responds to them.

  8. Volatility in crude oil futures. A comparison of the predictive ability of GARCH and implied volatility models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Agnolucci, Paolo [University of Cambridge, Department of Land Economy, Cambridge Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research (4CMR), 19 Silver Street, Cambridge CB3 9EP (United Kingdom)

    2009-03-15

    The WTI future contract quoted at the NYMEX is the most actively traded instrument in the energy sector. This paper compares the predictive ability of two approaches which can be used to forecast volatility: GARCH-type models where forecasts are obtained after estimating time series models, and an implied volatility model where forecasts are obtained by inverting one of the models used to price options. Although the main scope of the research discussed here is to evaluate which model produces the best forecast of volatility for the WTI future contract, evaluated according to statistical and regression-based criteria, we also investigate whether volatility of the oil futures are affected by asymmetric effects, whether parameters of the GARCH models are influenced by the distribution of the errors and whether allowing for a time-varying long-run mean in the volatility produces any improvement on the forecast obtained from GARCH models. (author)

  9. Headache in children: young age at onset does not imply a harmful etiology or predict a harsh headache disability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ravid, Sarit; Gordon, Shirie; Schiff, Aharon; Shahar, Eli

    2013-07-01

    The purpose of this retrospective study was to compare headache etiology, type, and burden and the learning and behavioral profile in children with early-onset (under 6 years) and late-onset (8-12 years) headaches. The study included 133 patients, 35 in the early-onset group and 98 in the late-onset group. Headache diagnosis was based on International Classification of Headache Disorders -II (ICHD-II) criteria. Learning profile and behavioral problems were assessed by parental reports. Tension headache was the most common diagnosis in the early-onset headache group (51.4%). No significant differences were found between the age groups with regard to headache etiology, disability, abnormal neuroimaging results, school performance, or attention problems. Nevertheless, the early-onset group patients had a significantly higher prevalence of behavioral problems: 25.7% versus 11.2% (P headache onset does not imply a harmful etiology or a relentless headache disability or burden.

  10. Initial conditions implied by t exp 1/2 solidification of a sphere with capillarity and interfacial kinetics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sekerka, R. F.; Voorhees, P. W.; Coriel, S. R.; Mcfadden, G. B.

    1988-01-01

    The paper explores the initial conditions implied by t exp 1/2 growth of a spherical crystal solidifying from a pure, undercooled melt, including the effects of both capillarity and interface kinetics, and relates the findings to initial conditions that would be expected on the basis of classical nucleation theory. For crystal sizes near the nucleation radius, the calculated temperature profiles show a cold region ahead of the advancing interface that is even more undercooled than the undercooled bath. This cold region acts as a local heat sink that compensates for the reduced growth speed that would otherwise result from capillarity and kinetics, leading to precisely the same t exp 1/2 growth law that would have been obtained had both capillarity and kinetics been neglected.

  11. The high tide of the warm Pliocene: Implications of ~20 m Peak Eustatic Sea-Levels for Antarctic Deglaciation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, K. G.; Browning, J. V.; Kulpecz, A. A.; Kominz, M. A.; Naish, T.; Rosenthal, Y.; Peltier, W. R.; Sosdian, S. M.; Wright, J. D.

    2010-12-01

    The eustatic peak of the Pliocene (ca. 3 Ma) allows evaluation of sea-level response to conditions warmer than present and with atmospheric carbon dioxide levels similar to the early 21st century. We provide new eustatic estimates for the Pliocene from backstripping shallow-marine, siliciclastic sections in Virginia, U.S.A., and New Zealand, accounting for the effects of compaction, Airy loading, and thermal subsidence. We compare our backstripped eustatic estimates with previously published estimates from a carbonate atoll (Enewetak), deep sea benthic foraminiferal oxygen isotopes, Mg-Ca, and uplifted marine terraces in the Carolinas and Alaska and conclude that the peak was 19±5 m, significantly lower than previously published estimates of 30-40 m derived from uplifted terraces. The 19-m peak implies not only the loss of the total equivalent of Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, but suggests volume loss of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) of ~4 m of sea-level equivalent. Our estimates provide helps resolve the long-standing controversy of the stability of the EAIS during the warmer-than-present Pliocene climatic optimum. The sea-level fall at MIC 100 (ca. 2.7 Ma) associated with the growth of large northern hemisphere ice sheets was remarkably large (~100 m) and may have cause a glacial isotostatic adjustment the resulted in uplift of the otherwise tectonically stable New Jersey coastal plain. Despite uncertainties in pre-ice core CO2 and global temperature measurements, the Pliocene provides a critical sea level-atmospheric CO2 calibration point for climates significantly warmer than the last major interglacial, MIC 5e.

  12. The Sounds of Sentences: Differentiating the Influence of Physical Sound, Sound Imagery, and Linguistically Implied Sounds on Physical Sound Processing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dudschig, Carolin; Mackenzie, Ian Grant; Strozyk, Jessica; Kaup, Barbara; Leuthold, Hartmut

    2016-10-01

    Both the imagery literature and grounded models of language comprehension emphasize the tight coupling of high-level cognitive processes, such as forming a mental image of something or language understanding, and low-level sensorimotor processes in the brain. In an electrophysiological study, imagery and language processes were directly compared and the sensory associations of processing linguistically implied sounds or imagined sounds were investigated. Participants read sentences describing auditory events (e.g., "The dog barks"), heard a physical (environmental) sound, or had to imagine such a sound. We examined the influence of the 3 sound conditions (linguistic, physical, imagery) on subsequent physical sound processing. Event-related potential (ERP) difference waveforms indicated that in all 3 conditions, prime compatibility influenced physical sound processing. The earliest compatibility effect was observed in the physical condition, starting in the 80-110 ms time interval with a negative maximum over occipital electrode sites. In contrast, the linguistic and the imagery condition elicited compatibility effects starting in the 180-220 ms time window with a maximum over central electrode sites. In line with the ERPs, the analysis of the oscillatory activity showed that compatibility influenced early theta and alpha band power changes in the physical, but not in the linguistic and imagery, condition. These dissociations were further confirmed by dipole localization results showing a clear separation between the source of the compatibility effect in the physical sound condition (superior temporal area) and the source of the compatibility effect triggered by the linguistically implied sounds or the imagined sounds (inferior temporal area). Implications for grounded models of language understanding are discussed.

  13. Responsibility for radical change in addressing climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bouvrie, des N.; Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, S.I.S.E.; Jollands, N.

    2014-01-01

    To radically address the problem of climate change, it is not enough to modify specific attitudes and behaviors while upholding the present paradigms. This article aims to show why modifications will never bring about radical carbon emission reductions. We discuss what it implies to desire radical c

  14. Intergenerational justice: how reasonable man discounts climate damage

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Davidson, M.D.

    2012-01-01

    Moral philosophers and economists have evaluated the intergenerational problem of climate change by applying the whole gamut of theories on distributive justice. In this article, however, it is argued that intergenerational justice cannot imply the application of moral ideal theories to future gener

  15. Intergenerational justice: how reasonable man discounts climate damage

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Davidson, M.D.

    2012-01-01

    Moral philosophers and economists have evaluated the intergenerational problem of climate change by applying the whole gamut of theories on distributive justice. In this article, however, it is argued that intergenerational justice cannot imply the application of moral ideal theories to future

  16. The Effects of Grade Level, Type of Motion, Cueing Strategy, Pictorial Complexity, and Color on Children's Interpretation of Implied Motion in Pictures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Downs, Elizabeth; Jenkins, Stephen J.

    2001-01-01

    Examined the ability of 64 kindergarten and third-grade children to interpret implied motion in pictures accurately. Third graders were more adept at identifying implied motion. Results also show that postural motion was more effective than a flow-line condition in conveying motion, and that cues and relevant pictorial background information…

  17. A climate emulator for coastal flooding events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rueda Zamora, A. C.; Méndez Incera, F. J.; Camus, P.; Tomas, A.

    2014-12-01

    The evaluation of coastal flooding requires the definition of the multivariate marine climate conditions (wave height, wave period, wave direction, wind, surge levels). Historical reanalysis databases are a valuable information source. However, the limited time period covered implies uncertainty in the statistical characterization of extremes. Besides, downscaling is needed to extend data to climate change scenarios or long-term historical periods, or even to understand the interannual variability. A statistical downscaling approach is adopted due to its low computational cost. The relationship between large-scale atmospheric variables (predictor) and local marine climate variables (predictand) is established by means of a physical division of the predictand based on weather types. The multivariate dependence structure of the predictand (extreme events) is introduced linking the independent marginal distributions of the variables by a probabilistic copula regression. Therefore, the climate emulator is a stochastic hybrid model with the following steps: 1) Collecting historical data for the predictor (atmospheric variables) and predictand (sea state parameters, storm-surge); 2) Predictor definition, i.e. using ESTELA method in the case of wave generation characteristics (Pérez et al., 2014a); 3) Defining the most appropriate statistical model (distribution modeling based on weather-type); 4) Stochastic simulation of the present climate; 5) Marine climate downscaling under climate change scenarios (selecting the best GCMs from CMIP5, Pérez et al., 2014b). References: Perez, J., Menéndez, M., Méndez, F.J., Losada, I.J. (2014a). Evaluating the performance of CMIP3 and CMIP5 global climate models over the north-east Atlantic region, Climate Dynamics, DOI 10.1007/s00382-014-2078-8. Perez, J., Menéndez, M., Méndez, F.J., Losada, I.J. (2014b) ESTELA: A method for evaluating the source and travel-time of the wave energy reaching a local area. Ocean Dynamics, DOI 10

  18. SMOS and climate data applicability for analyzing forest decline and forest fires

    OpenAIRE

    Chaparro Danon, David; Vayreda, Jordi; Martínez Vilalta, Jordi; Vall-Llossera Ferran, Mercedes Magdalena; Banque, Mireia; Camps Carmona, Adriano José; Piles Guillem, Maria

    2014-01-01

    Forests partially reduce climate change impact but, at the same time, this climate forcing threatens forest's health. In recent decades, droughts are becoming more frequent and intense implying an increase of forest decline episodes and forest fires. In this context, global and frequent soil moisture observations from the ESA's SMOS mission could be useful in controlling forest exposure to decline and fires. In this paper, SMOS observations and several climate variables are analyzed together ...

  19. Harvesting Atlantic Cod under Climate Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oremus, K. L.

    2016-12-01

    Previous literature links the growth of a fishery to climate variability. This study uses an age-structured bioeconomic model to compare optimal harvest in the Gulf of Maine Atlantic cod fishery under a variable climate versus a static climate. The optimal harvest path depends on the relationship between fishery growth and the interest rate, with higher interest rates dictating greater harvests now at the cost of long-term stock sustainability. Given the time horizon of a single generation of fishermen under assumptions of a static climate, the model finds that the economically optimal management strategy is to harvest the entire stock in the short term and allow the fishery to collapse. However, if the biological growth of the fishery is assumed to vary with climate conditions, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, there will always be pulses of high growth in the stock. During some of these high-growth years, the growth of the stock and its economic yield can exceed the growth rate of the economy even under high interest rates. This implies that it is not economically optimal to exhaust the New England cod fishery if NAO is included in the biological growth function. This finding may have theoretical implications for the management of other renewable yet exhaustible resources whose growth rates are subject to climate variability.

  20. The climatic impact of supervolcanic ash blankets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jones, Morgan T.; Sparks, R.S.J. [University of Bristol, Department of Earth Sciences, Bristol (United Kingdom); Valdes, Paul J. [University of Bristol, School of Geographical Sciences, Bristol (United Kingdom)

    2007-11-15

    Supervolcanoes are large caldera systems that can expel vast quantities of ash, volcanic gases in a single eruption, far larger than any recorded in recent history. These super-eruptions have been suggested as possible catalysts for long-term climate change and may be responsible for bottlenecks in human and animal populations. Here, we consider the previously neglected climatic effects of a continent-sized ash deposit with a high albedo and show that a decadal climate forcing is expected. We use a coupled atmosphere-ocean General Circulation Model (GCM) to simulate the effect of an ash blanket from Yellowstone volcano, USA, covering much of North America. Reflectivity measurements of dry volcanic ash show albedo values as high as snow, implying that the effects of an ash blanket would be severe. The modeling results indicate major disturbances to the climate, particularly to oscillatory patterns such as the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Atmospheric disruptions would continue for decades after the eruption due to extended ash blanket longevity. The climatic response to an ash blanket is not significant enough to investigate a change to stadial periods at present day boundary conditions, though this is one of several impacts associated with a super-eruption which may induce long-term climatic change. (orig.)

  1. Implied motion because of instability in Hokusai Manga activates the human motion-sensitive extrastriate visual cortex: an fMRI study of the impact of visual art.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osaka, Naoyuki; Matsuyoshi, Daisuke; Ikeda, Takashi; Osaka, Mariko

    2010-03-10

    The recent development of cognitive neuroscience has invited inference about the neurosensory events underlying the experience of visual arts involving implied motion. We report functional magnetic resonance imaging study demonstrating activation of the human extrastriate motion-sensitive cortex by static images showing implied motion because of instability. We used static line-drawing cartoons of humans by Hokusai Katsushika (called 'Hokusai Manga'), an outstanding Japanese cartoonist as well as famous Ukiyoe artist. We found 'Hokusai Manga' with implied motion by depicting human bodies that are engaged in challenging tonic posture significantly activated the motion-sensitive visual cortex including MT+ in the human extrastriate cortex, while an illustration that does not imply motion, for either humans or objects, did not activate these areas under the same tasks. We conclude that motion-sensitive extrastriate cortex would be a critical region for perception of implied motion in instability.

  2. Agriculture: Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change affects agricultural producers because agriculture and fisheries depend on specific climate conditions. Temperature changes can cause crop planting dates to shift. Droughts and floods due to climate change may hinder farming practices.

  3. Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    The concept of refugia has long been studied from theoretical and paleontological perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change ref...

  4. Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    The concept of refugia has long been studied from theoretical and paleontological perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change ref...

  5. TRACKING CLIMATE MODELS

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — CLAIRE MONTELEONI*, GAVIN SCHMIDT, AND SHAILESH SAROHA* Climate models are complex mathematical models designed by meteorologists, geophysicists, and climate...

  6. Climate Change Indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Presents information, charts and graphs showing measured climate changes across 40 indicators related to greenhouse gases, weather and climate, oceans, snow and ice, heath and society, and ecosystems.

  7. A knock-in Npm1 mutation in mice results in myeloproliferation and implies a perturbation in hematopoietic microenvironment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shiu-Huey Chou

    Full Text Available Somatic Nucleophosmin (NPM1 mutation frequently occurs in acute myeloid leukemia (AML, but its role in leukemogenesis remains unclear. This study reports the first "conventional" knock-in mouse model of Npm1 mutation, which was achieved by inserting TCTG after nucleotide c.857 (c.854_857dupTCTG to mimic human mutation without any "humanized" sequence. The resultant mutant peptide differed slightly different from that in humans but exhibited cytoplasmic pulling force. Homozygous (Npm1(c+/c+ mice showed embryonic lethality before day E8.5, wheras heterozygous (Npm1(wt/c+ mice appeared healthy at birth and were fertile. Approximately 36% of Npm1(wt/c+ mice developed myeloproliferative disease (MPD with extramedullary hematopoiesis. Those Npm1(wt/c+ mice that did not develop MPD nevertheless gradually developed monocytosis and showed increased numbers of marrow myeloid precursors. This second group of Npm1(wt/c+ mice also showed compromised cobblestone area formation, suggesting pathology in the hematopoietic niche. Microarray experiments and bioinformatic analysis on mice myeloid precursor cells and 227 human samples revealed the expression of CXCR4/CXCL12-related genes was significantly suppressed in mutant cells from both mice and humans. Thus, our mouse model demonstrated that Npm1 mutation can result in MPD, but is insufficient for leukemogenesis. Perturbation of hematopoietic niche in mutant hematopoietic stem cells (implied by underrepresentation of CXCR4/CXCL12-related genes may be important in the pathogenesis of NPM1 mutations.

  8. Linkages among U.S. Treasury Bond Yields, Commodity Futures and Stock Market Implied Volatility: New Nonparametric Evidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vychytilova Jana

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to explore specific cross-asset market correlations over the past fifteen- yearperiod-from January 04, 1999 till April 01, 2015, and within four sub-phases covering both the crisis and the non-crisis periods. On the basis of multivariate statistical methods, we focus on investigating relations between selected well-known market indices- U.S. treasury bond yields- the 30-year treasury yield index (TYX and the 10-year treasury yield (TNX; commodity futures the TR/J CRB; and implied volatility of S&P 500 index- the VIX. We estimate relative logarithmic returns by using monthly close prices adjusted for dividends and splits and run normality and correlation analyses. This paper indicates that the TR/J CRB can be adequately modeled by a normal distribution, whereas the rest of benchmarks do not come from a normal distribution. This paper, inter alia, points out some evidence of a statistically significant negative relationship between bond yields and the VIX in the past fifteen years and a statistically significant negative linkage between the TR/J CRB and the VIX since 2009. In rather general terms, this paper thereafter supports the a priori idea- financial markets are interconnected. Such knowledge can be beneficial for building and testing accurate financial market models, and particularly for the understanding and recognizing market cycles.

  9. Mining Method of Implied Association Page%一种隐式关联页面的挖掘方法

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    徐昊; 谢文阁

    2014-01-01

    点击流数据是分析互联网用户心理倾向的关键,用户感兴趣的页组关联就隐藏于WEB日志之中。网站页面间的隐式关联可以通过分析点击流数据实现。给出了一种挖掘关联页面的方法。关联页面发现算法采用了一种类似于Apriori的模型。算法克服了前人关联页面算法的一些缺点,能够更好地适应复杂的互联网环境。%The Clickstream data is the key to the analysis of Internet users psychological tendency, and the association of the user interesting pages group is hidden in the WEB log. Implied association between Web pages can be achieved by analyzing the click stream data. This paper puts forward a method of mining association page. Associated page searching algorithm adopted a model similarly to the Apriori. This algorithm overcomes some shortcomings of predecessors’ association page algorithm can better adapt to the complex Internet environment.

  10. Urinary hormone metabolites identify sex and imply unexpected winter breeding in an endangered, subterranean-nesting frog.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Germano, J M; Molinia, F C; Bishop, P J; Bell, B D; Cree, A

    2012-02-01

    Urinary hormone analysis has proved accurate for identifying sex and breeding periods in dimorphic amphibians with known reproductive cycles. We examined whether these techniques could provide this much needed information for a monomorphic anuran with an unconfirmed mating season in the wild. We analysed urinary estrone conjugate, testosterone, and progesterone metabolites to infer the time of breeding and to identify sex in the endangered Maud Island frog, Leiopelma pakeka. Testosterone metabolites in males and estrone and progesterone metabolites in females were at their peak during winter for both wild and captive frogs. These urinary metabolite patterns were consistent with the high proportion of females exhibiting enlarged ovarian follicles in winter months. Sex identification based on urinary estrone metabolite levels was 94% correct in this monomorphic species, in which the sexes overlap in snout-to-vent length (SVL) for over half of their adult size range and in which no other sexually dimorphic trait is known. The seasonal profiles imply unexpected winter or early spring breeding in L. pakeka. Overall, these results demonstrate use of urinary hormone metabolites for reproductive monitoring and sex identification in one of the world's most threatened and evolutionarily distinct amphibians.

  11. Induced Folding Under Membrane Mimetic and Acidic Conditions Implies Undiscovered Biological Roles of Prokaryotic Ubiquitin-Like Protein Pup.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, Kaiqin; Tu, Xiaoming; Zhang, Xuecheng; Shang, Qiang; Liao, Shanhui; Yu, Jigang; Zhang, Jiahai

    2016-01-01

    Ubiquitin-like proteins play important roles in diverse biological processes. In Mycobacterium tuberculosis, Pup (prokaryotic ubiquitin-like protein), a functional homologue of eukaryotic ubiquitin, interacts with the proteasome ATPase subunit Mpa to recognize and unfold substrates, and then translocate them into the proteasome core for degradation. Previous studies revealed that, Pup, an intrinsically disordered protein (IDP), adopts a helical structure upon binding to the N-terminal coiled-coil domain of Mpa, at its disordered C-terminal region. In the present study, using circular dichroism (CD), surface plasmon resonance (SPR) and nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR), we show that membrane mimetic and acidic conditions also induce Pup to adopt helical conformations. Moreover, at low pH, Pup, via both of its N- and C-terminal regions, binds to Mpa on sites from the N-terminal region in addition to the C-terminal region of the coiled-coil domain. Our results imply Pup may play undiscovered roles in some biological processes e.g. those involve in membrane.

  12. The tight subgiant branch of the intermediate-age star cluster NGC 411 implies a single-aged stellar population

    CERN Document Server

    Li, Chengyuan; Bastian, Nathan; Deng, Licai; Niederhofer, Florian; Zhang, Chaoli

    2016-01-01

    The presence of extended main-sequence turn-off (eMSTO) regions in intermediate-age star clusters in the Large and Small Magellanic Clouds is often interpreted as resulting from extended star-formation histories (SFHs), lasting $\\geq$ 300 Myr. This strongly conflicts with the traditional view of the dominant star-formation mode in stellar clusters, which are thought of as single-aged stellar populations. Here we present a test of this interpretation by exploring the morphology of the subgiant branch (SGB) of NGC 411, which hosts possibly the most extended eMSTO among all known intermediate-age star clusters. We show that the width of the NGC 411 SGB favours the single-aged stellar population interpretation and rules out an extended SFH. In addition, when considering the red clump (RC) morphology and adopting the unproven premise that the widths of all features in the colour--magnitude diagram are determined by an underlying range in ages, we find that the SFH implied is still very close to that resulting from...

  13. Val66Met BDNF Polymorphism Implies a Different Way to Recover From Stroke Rather Than a Worse Overall Recoverability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Pino, Giovanni; Pellegrino, Giovanni; Capone, Fioravante; Assenza, Giovanni; Florio, Lucia; Falato, Emma; Lotti, Fiorenza; Di Lazzaro, Vincenzo

    2016-01-01

    In search for individualized predictors of stroke recovery, the Val66Met polymorphism of the brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) is attracting great interest, because it has a negative impact on neurotrophin function. Since stroke recovery relies on brain plastic processes, on which BDNF is permissive, the dominant thought is in favor of a worse recovery in Met carriers. Conversely, we suggest that Met carriers do not differ in terms of absolute ability to recover from stroke, but they do differ on the way they recover. In particular, Met carriers rely more on subcortical plasticity, while ValVal patients more on intracortical plastic processes. Indeed, the direct evidence of impaired Met carrier recovery is inconsistent, as a high worldwide diffusion of the polymorphism suggests. The plasticity taking place in cortex, which is the one targeted by noninvasive brain stimulation strategies aimed at enhancing recovery, is less pronounced in Met carrier stroke patients, who have instead spared global recovery potential. Enhanced subcortical plasticity sustains better stroke recovery of Met carrier mice: this may also happen in humans, explaining the weaker interhemispheric cortical excitability imbalance recently described in Met carriers. Thus, BDNF haplotype determines mechanisms and structures involved in stroke recovery. The less pronounced cortical plasticity of Met carrier implies that plastic changes induced by interventional neurophysiological protocols would be better predictors of ValVal chronic outcome and those protocols would be more effective to boost their recovery. Other strategies, more focused on subcortical mechanisms, should be used in Met carriers.

  14. Land Use Effects on Atmospheric C-13 Imply a Sizable Terrestrial CO2 Sink in Tropical Latitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Townsend, Alan R.; Asner, Gregory P.; Tans, Pieter P.; White, James W. C.

    2000-01-01

    Records of atmospheric CO2 and 13-CO2, can be used to distinguish terrestrial vs. oceanic exchanges of CO2 with the atmosphere. However, this approach has proven difficult in the tropics, partly due to extensive land conversion from C-3 to C-4 vegetation. We estimated the effects of such conversion on biosphere-atmosphere C-13 exchange for 1991 through 1999, and then explored how this 'land-use disequilibrium' altered the partitioning of net atmospheric CO2 exchanges between ocean and land using NOAA-CMDL data and a 2D, zonally averaged atmospheric transport model. Our results show sizable CO2 uptake in C-3-dominated tropical regions in seven of the nine years; 1997 and 1998, which included a strong ENSO event, are near neutral. Since these fluxes include any deforestation source, our findings imply either that such sources are smaller than previously estimated, and/or the existence of a large terrestrial CO2 sink in equatorial latitudes.

  15. Spatially robust estimates of biological nitrogen (N) fixation imply substantial human alteration of the tropical N cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sullivan, Benjamin W.; Smith, William K.; Townsend, Alan R.; Nasto, Megan K.; Reed, Sasha C.; Chazdon, Robin L.; Cleveland, Cory C.

    2014-01-01

    Biological nitrogen fixation (BNF) is the largest natural source of exogenous nitrogen (N) to unmanaged ecosystems and also the primary baseline against which anthropogenic changes to the N cycle are measured. Rates of BNF in tropical rainforest are thought to be among the highest on Earth, but they are notoriously difficult to quantify and are based on little empirical data. We adapted a sampling strategy from community ecology to generate spatial estimates of symbiotic and free-living BNF in secondary and primary forest sites that span a typical range of tropical forest legume abundance. Although total BNF was higher in secondary than primary forest, overall rates were roughly five times lower than previous estimates for the tropical forest biome. We found strong correlations between symbiotic BNF and legume abundance, but we also show that spatially free-living BNF often exceeds symbiotic inputs. Our results suggest that BNF in tropical forest has been overestimated, and our data are consistent with a recent top-down estimate of global BNF that implied but did not measure low tropical BNF rates. Finally, comparing tropical BNF within the historical area of tropical rainforest with current anthropogenic N inputs indicates that humans have already at least doubled reactive N inputs to the tropical forest biome, a far greater change than previously thought. Because N inputs are increasing faster in the tropics than anywhere on Earth, both the proportion and the effects of human N enrichment are likely to grow in the future.

  16. Spatially robust estimates of biological nitrogen (N) fixation imply substantial human alteration of the tropical N cycle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sullivan, Benjamin W; Smith, W Kolby; Townsend, Alan R; Nasto, Megan K; Reed, Sasha C; Chazdon, Robin L; Cleveland, Cory C

    2014-06-03

    Biological nitrogen fixation (BNF) is the largest natural source of exogenous nitrogen (N) to unmanaged ecosystems and also the primary baseline against which anthropogenic changes to the N cycle are measured. Rates of BNF in tropical rainforest are thought to be among the highest on Earth, but they are notoriously difficult to quantify and are based on little empirical data. We adapted a sampling strategy from community ecology to generate spatial estimates of symbiotic and free-living BNF in secondary and primary forest sites that span a typical range of tropical forest legume abundance. Although total BNF was higher in secondary than primary forest, overall rates were roughly five times lower than previous estimates for the tropical forest biome. We found strong correlations between symbiotic BNF and legume abundance, but we also show that spatially free-living BNF often exceeds symbiotic inputs. Our results suggest that BNF in tropical forest has been overestimated, and our data are consistent with a recent top-down estimate of global BNF that implied but did not measure low tropical BNF rates. Finally, comparing tropical BNF within the historical area of tropical rainforest with current anthropogenic N inputs indicates that humans have already at least doubled reactive N inputs to the tropical forest biome, a far greater change than previously thought. Because N inputs are increasing faster in the tropics than anywhere on Earth, both the proportion and the effects of human N enrichment are likely to grow in the future.

  17. Managing climate change refugia for climate adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toni Lyn Morelli; Christopher Daly; Solomon Z. Dobrowski; Deanna M. Dulen; Joseph L. Ebersole; Stephen T. Jackson; Jessica D. Lundquist; Connie Millar; Sean P. Maher; William B. Monahan; Koren R. Nydick; Kelly T. Redmond; Sarah C. Sawyer; Sarah Stock; Steven R. Beissinger

    2016-01-01

    Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that...

  18. Changes in the Perceived Risk of Climate Change: Evidence from Sudden Climatic Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anttila-Hughes, J. K.

    2009-12-01

    In the course of the past two decades the threat of anthropogenic climate change has moved from a scientific concern of relative obscurity to become one of the largest environmental and public goods problems in history. During this period public understanding of the risk of climate change has shifted from negligible to quite large. In this paper I propose a means of quantifying this change by examining how sudden events supporting the theory of anthropogenic climate change have affected carbon intensive companies' stock prices. Using CAPM event study methodology for companies in several carbon-intensive industries, I find strong evidence that markets have been reacting to changes in the scientific evidence for climate change for some time. Specifically, the change in magnitude of response over time seems to indicate that investors believed climate change was a potentially serious risk to corporate profits as early as the mid 1990s. Moreover, market reaction dependence on event type indicates that investors are differentiating between different advances in the scientific knowledge. Announcements by NASA GISS that the previous year was a “record hot year” for the globe are associated with negative excess returns, while news of ice shelf collapses are associated with strong positive excess returns. These results imply that investors are aware of how different aspects of climate change will affect carbon intensive companies, specifically in terms of the link between warming in general and polar ice cover. This implies that policy choices based on observable public opinion have lagged actual private concern over climate change's potential threat.

  19. Production and use of regional climate model projections - A Swedish perspective on building climate services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kjellström, Erik; Bärring, Lars; Nikulin, Grigory; Nilsson, Carin; Persson, Gunn; Strandberg, Gustav

    2016-09-01

    We describe the process of building a climate service centred on regional climate model results from the Rossby Centre regional climate model RCA4. The climate service has as its central facility a web service provided by the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute where users can get an idea of various aspects of climate change from a suite of maps, diagrams, explaining texts and user guides. Here we present the contents of the web service and how this has been designed and developed in collaboration with users of the service in a dialogue reaching over more than a decade. We also present the ensemble of climate projections with RCA4 that provides the fundamental climate information presented at the web service. In this context, RCA4 has been used to downscale nine different coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) from the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to 0.44° (c. 50 km) horizontal resolution over Europe. Further, we investigate how this ensemble relates to the CMIP5 ensemble. We find that the iterative approach involving the users of the climate service has been successful as the service is widely used and is an important source of information for work on climate adaptation in Sweden. The RCA4 ensemble samples a large degree of the spread in the CMIP5 ensemble implying that it can be used to illustrate uncertainties and robustness in future climate change in Sweden. The results also show that RCA4 changes results compared to the underlying AOGCMs, sometimes in a systematic way.

  20. Climate change impacts on food system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, X.; Cai, X.; Zhu, T.

    2014-12-01

    Food system includes biophysical factors (climate, land and water), human environments (production technologies and food consumption, distribution and marketing), as well as the dynamic interactions within them. Climate change affects agriculture and food systems in various ways. Agricultural production can be influenced directly by climatic factors such as mean temperature rising, change in rainfall patterns, and more frequent extreme events. Eventually, climate change could cause shift of arable land, alteration of water availability, abnormal fluctuation of food prices, and increase of people at risk of malnutrition. This work aims to evaluate how climate change would affect agricultural production biophysically and how these effects would propagate to social factors at the global level. In order to model the complex interactions between the natural and social components, a Global Optimization model of Agricultural Land and Water resources (GOALW) is applied to the analysis. GOALW includes various demands of human society (food, feed, other), explicit production module, and irrigation water availability constraint. The objective of GOALW is to maximize global social welfare (consumers' surplus and producers' surplus).Crop-wise irrigation water use in different regions around the world are determined by the model; marginal value of water (MVW) can be obtained from the model, which implies how much additional welfare benefit could be gained with one unit increase in local water availability. Using GOALW, we will analyze two questions in this presentation: 1) how climate change will alter irrigation requirements and how the social system would buffer that by price/demand adjustment; 2) how will the MVW be affected by climate change and what are the controlling factors. These results facilitate meaningful insights for investment and adaptation strategies in sustaining world's food security under climate change.

  1. Climate selection and development of climate indicators

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bowen, W.M.; Moreno, S.; Olsen, A.R.

    1982-09-01

    A climate analysis procedure for selecting climate locations which would represent the variation in climate conditions throughout the United States is documented. Separate energy analysis projects for three building categories were to use the results of the climate location project. The categories are: commercial buildings (including multifamily residences), single family residences, and mobile homes. The overall objectives, approach, and method used for all three categories are presented, then the specific application of the general method to each building category is discussed. Climate selection results, conclusions, recommendations, and limits for each building category are presented within the description of the application of the method for that category. (LEW)

  2. Planetary climates (princeton primers in climate)

    CERN Document Server

    Ingersoll, Andrew

    2013-01-01

    This concise, sophisticated introduction to planetary climates explains the global physical and chemical processes that determine climate on any planet or major planetary satellite--from Mercury to Neptune and even large moons such as Saturn's Titan. Although the climates of other worlds are extremely diverse, the chemical and physical processes that shape their dynamics are the same. As this book makes clear, the better we can understand how various planetary climates formed and evolved, the better we can understand Earth's climate history and future.

  3. Earthquake event deposits in Mesoproterozoic Kunyang Group in central Yunnan Province and its geological impli-cations

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    DU; Yuansheng

    2001-01-01

    [1]Liu, T. S., Loess and the Environment, Beijing: China Ocean Press, 1985, 1-251.[2]Chen, L. X., Zhu, Q. G., Luo, H. B. et al., East Asian Monsoon, Beijing: China Meteorology Press, 1991, 28-61.[3]An, Z. S., Liu, T. S., Lu, Y. C. et al., The long-term palaeomonsoon variation recorded by the loess-palaeosol sequence in central China, Quaternary International, 1990, (7/8): 91-95.[4]Guo, Z. T., Liu, T. S., Fedoroff, N. et al., Shift of the monsoon intensity on the Loess Plateau at ca. 0.85 MaBP, Chinese Science Bulletin, 1993, 38(2): 586-591.[5]Chen, J., An, Z. S., Wang, Y. J. et al., Distributions of Rb and Sr in the Luochuan loess-paleosol sequence of China during the last 800 ka: Implications for paleomonsoon variations, Science in China, Ser. D, 1999, 42(3): 225-232.[6]Chen, J., Wang, Y. J., Ji, J. F. et al., Rb/Sr variations and its climatic stratigraphical significance of a loess-paleosol profile from Luochuan, Shaanxi Province, Quaternary Sciences (in Chinese), 1999, 19(4): 350-356.[7]Guo, Z. T.,Liu, T. S., Fedoroff, N. et al., Climate extremes in loess of China coupled with the strength of deep-water for-mation in the North Atlantic, Global and Planetary Change, 1998, 18: 113-128.[8]Guo, Z. T., Liu, T. S., An, Z. S., Paleosols of the last 0.15 Ma in the Weinan loess section and their paleoclimate signifi-cance, Quaternary Sciences (in Chinese), 1994, 14(3): 256-269.[9]Guo, Z, T,, Fedoroff, N., Liu, T. S., Micromorphology of the loess-paleosol sequence of the last 130 ka in China and pa-leoclimatic event, Science in China (in Chinese), Ser. D, 1996, 26(3): 392-398.[10]Guo, Z., Liu, T., Guiot, J., et al., High frequency pulses of East Asian monsoon climate in the last two glaciations: Link with the North Atlantic, Climate Dynamics, 1996, 12: 701-709.[11]Guo, Z. T., Peng, S. Z., Wei, L. Y. et al., Weathering signals of Millennial-Scale oscillations of the East Asian Summer monsoon over the last 220 ka, Chinese Science

  4. Larger plantar flexion torque variability implies less stable balance in the young: an association affected by knee position.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mello, Emanuele Moraes; Magalhães, Fernando Henrique; Kohn, André Fabio

    2013-12-01

    The present study examined the association between plantar flexion torque variability during isolated isometric contractions and during quiet bipedal standing. For plantar flexion torque measurements in quiet stance (QS), subjects stood still over a force plate. The mean plantar flexion torque level exerted by each subject in QS (divided by 2 to give the torque due to a single leg) served as the target torque level for right leg force-matching tasks in extended knee (KE) and flexed knee (KF) conditions. Muscle activation levels (EMG amplitudes) of the triceps surae and mean, standard deviation and coefficient of variation of plantar flexion torque were computed from signals acquired during periods with and without visual feedback. No significant correlations were found between EMG amplitudes and torque variability, regardless of the condition and muscle being analyzed. A significant correlation was found between torque variability in QS and KE, whereas no significant correlation was found between torque variability in QS and KF, regardless of vision availability. Therefore, torque variability measured in a controlled extended knee plantar flexion contraction is a predictor of torque variability in the anterior-posterior direction when the subjects are in quiet standing. In other words, larger plantar flexion torque variability in KE (but not in KF) implies less stable balance. The mechanisms underlying the findings above are probably associated with the similar proprioceptive feedback from the triceps surae in QS and KE and poorer proprioceptive feedback from the triceps surae in KF due to the slackening of the gastrocnemii. An additional putative mechanism includes the different torque contributions of each component of the triceps surae in the two knee angles. From a clinical and research standpoint, it would be advantageous to be able to estimate changes in balance ability by means of simple measurements of torque variability in a force matching task.

  5. Cone photoreceptor sensitivities and unique hue chromatic responses: correlation and causation imply the physiological basis of unique hues.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ralph W Pridmore

    Full Text Available This paper relates major functions at the start and end of the color vision process. The process starts with three cone photoreceptors transducing light into electrical responses. Cone sensitivities were once expected to be Red Green Blue color matching functions (to mix colors but microspectrometry proved otherwise: they instead peak in yellowish, greenish, and blueish hues. These physiological functions are an enigma, unmatched with any set of psychophysical (behavioral functions. The end-result of the visual process is color sensation, whose essential percepts are unique (or pure hues red, yellow, green, blue. Unique hues cannot be described by other hues, but can describe all other hues, e.g., that hue is reddish-blue. They are carried by four opponent chromatic response curves but the literature does not specify whether each curve represents a range of hues or only one hue (a unique over its wavelength range. Here the latter is demonstrated, confirming that opponent chromatic responses define, and may be termed, unique hue chromatic responses. These psychophysical functions also are an enigma, unmatched with any physiological functions or basis. Here both enigmas are solved by demonstrating the three cone sensitivity curves and the three spectral chromatic response curves are almost identical sets (Pearson correlation coefficients r from 0.95-1.0 in peak wavelengths, curve shapes, math functions, and curve crossover wavelengths, though previously unrecognized due to presentation of curves in different formats, e.g., log, linear. (Red chromatic response curve is largely nonspectral and thus derives from two cones. Close correlation combined with deterministic causation implies cones are the physiological basis of unique hues. This match of three physiological and three psychophysical functions is unique in color vision.

  6. Differences in Radiation Dosimetry and Anorectal Function Testing Imply That Anorectal Symptoms May Arise From Different Anatomic Substrates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smeenk, Robert Jan, E-mail: r.smeenk@rther.umcn.nl [Department of Radiation Oncology, Radboud University Nijmegen Medical Centre, Nijmegen (Netherlands); Hopman, Wim P.M. [Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Radboud University Nijmegen Medical Centre, Nijmegen (Netherlands); Hoffmann, Aswin L.; Lin, Emile N.J.Th. van; Kaanders, Johannes H.A.M. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Radboud University Nijmegen Medical Centre, Nijmegen (Netherlands)

    2012-01-01

    implies that anal wall and rectal wall should be considered separate organs in radiotherapy planning.

  7. Orbital forcing of the East Antarctic ice sheet during the Pliocene and Early Pleistocene

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Patterson, M. O.; McKay, R.; Naish, T.; Escutia, C.; Jimenez-Espejo, F. J.; Raymo, M. E.; Meyers, S. R.; Tauxe, L.; Brinkhuis, H.; Klaus, A.; Fehr, A.; Bendle, J. A P; Bijl, P. K.; Bohaty, S. M.; Carr, S. A.; Dunbar, R. B.; Flores, J. A.; Gonzalez, J. J.; Hayden, T. G.; Iwai, M.; Katsuki, K.; Kong, G. S.; Nakai, M.; Olney, M. P.; Passchier, S.; Pekar, S. F.; Pross, J.; Riesselman, C. R.; Röhl, U.; Sakai, T.; Shrivastava, P. K.; Stickley, C. E.; Sugasaki, S.; Tuo, S.; Van De Flierdt, T.; Welsh, K.; Williams, T.; Yamane, M.

    2014-01-01

    The Pliocene and Early Pleistocene, between 5.3 and 0.8 million years ago, span a transition from a global climate state that was 2-3 °C warmer than present with limited ice sheets in the Northern Hemisphere to one that was characterized by continental-scale glaciations at both poles. Growth and dec

  8. Eemian interglacial reconstructed from a Greenland folded ice core

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dahl-Jensen, D.; Albert, M.; Roeckmann, T.; Zheng, J.

    2013-01-01

    Efforts to extract a Greenland ice core with a complete record of the Eemian interglacial (130,000 to 115,000 years ago) have until now been unsuccessful. The response of the Greenland ice sheet to the warmer-than-present climate of the Eemian has thus remained unclear. Here we present the new North

  9. Climate Change Schools Project...

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKinzey, Krista

    2010-01-01

    This article features the award-winning Climate Change Schools Project which aims to: (1) help schools to embed climate change throughout the national curriculum; and (2) showcase schools as "beacons" for climate change teaching, learning, and positive action in their local communities. Operating since 2007, the Climate Change Schools…

  10. Climate Change Schools Project...

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKinzey, Krista

    2010-01-01

    This article features the award-winning Climate Change Schools Project which aims to: (1) help schools to embed climate change throughout the national curriculum; and (2) showcase schools as "beacons" for climate change teaching, learning, and positive action in their local communities. Operating since 2007, the Climate Change Schools Project…

  11. Climate Change Schools Project...

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKinzey, Krista

    2010-01-01

    This article features the award-winning Climate Change Schools Project which aims to: (1) help schools to embed climate change throughout the national curriculum; and (2) showcase schools as "beacons" for climate change teaching, learning, and positive action in their local communities. Operating since 2007, the Climate Change Schools…

  12. Strategies to adapt to an uncertain climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallegatte, S.

    2008-05-01

    Many decisions concerning long-lived investments need to take into account climate change. But doing so is not easy for at least two reasons. First, due to the rate of climate change, new infrastructure will have to be able to cope with a large range of changing climate conditions, which will make design more difficult and construction more expensive. Second, uncertainty in future climate makes it impossible to directly use the output of a single climate model as an input for infrastructure design, and there are good reasons to think that the needed climate information will not be available soon. Instead of optimizing based on the climate conditions projected by models, therefore, future infrastructure should be made more robust to possible changes in climate conditions. This aim implies that users of climate information must also change their practices and decision-making frameworks, for instance by adapting the uncertainty-management methods they currently apply to exchange rates or R&D outcomes. Five methods are examined: (i) introducing long-term prospective exercises; (ii) selecting "no-regret" strategies; (iii) favouring reversible options; (iv) promoting soft adaptation strategies; (v) reducing decision time horizons. I argue that adaptation strategies should not be assessed in an isolated context. In particular, it is essential to consider both negative and positive side-effects and externalities, and possible changes in future energy costs.

  13. Altered dynamics of forest recovery under a changing climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson-Teixeira, Kristina J; Miller, Adam D; Mohan, Jacqueline E; Hudiburg, Tara W; Duval, Benjamin D; Delucia, Evan H

    2013-07-01

    Forest regeneration following disturbance is a key ecological process, influencing forest structure and function, species assemblages, and ecosystem-climate interactions. Climate change may alter forest recovery dynamics or even prevent recovery, triggering feedbacks to the climate system, altering regional biodiversity, and affecting the ecosystem services provided by forests. Multiple lines of evidence - including global-scale patterns in forest recovery dynamics; forest responses to experimental manipulation of CO2 , temperature, and precipitation; forest responses to the climate change that has already occurred; ecological theory; and ecosystem and earth system models - all indicate that the dynamics of forest recovery are sensitive to climate. However, synthetic understanding of how atmospheric CO2 and climate shape trajectories of forest recovery is lacking. Here, we review these separate lines of evidence, which together demonstrate that the dynamics of forest recovery are being impacted by increasing atmospheric CO2 and changing climate. Rates of forest recovery generally increase with CO2 , temperature, and water availability. Drought reduces growth and live biomass in forests of all ages, having a particularly strong effect on seedling recruitment and survival. Responses of individual trees and whole-forest ecosystems to CO2 and climate manipulations often vary by age, implying that forests of different ages will respond differently to climate change. Furthermore, species within a community typically exhibit differential responses to CO2 and climate, and altered community dynamics can have important consequences for ecosystem function. Age- and species-dependent responses provide a mechanism by which climate change may push some forests past critical thresholds such that they fail to recover to their previous state following disturbance. Altered dynamics of forest recovery will result in positive and negative feedbacks to climate change. Future research

  14. Reduced 123I-BMIPP uptake implies decreased myocardial flow reserve in patients with chronic stable angina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kageyama, Hiroyuki; Morita, Koichi; Katoh, Chietsugu; Tsukamoto, Takahiro; Noriyasu, Kazuyuki; Mabuchi, Megumi; Naya, Masanao; Kawai, Yuko; Tamaki, Nagara

    2006-01-01

    Long-chain fatty acid (LCFA) is the main energy source for normal myocardium at rest, but in ischemic myocardium, the main energy substrate shifts from LCFA to glucose. 123I-BMIPP is a radiolabeled LCFA analog. In chronic stable angina without previous infarction, we suppose that reduced 123I-BMIPP uptake is related to the substrate shift in myocardium with decreased myocardial flow reserve (MFR). The purpose of this study was to relate 123I-BMIPP uptake to rest myocardial blood flow (MBF), hyperemic MBF, and MFR assessed with 15O-water positron emission tomography (PET). We enrolled 21 patients with chronic stable angina without previous infarction, all of whom underwent 123I-BMIPP single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) and 15O-water PET. The left ventricle was divided into 13 segments. In each segment, rest MBF and hyperemic MBF were measured by PET. 123I-BMIPP uptake was evaluated as follows: score 0=normal, 1=slightly decreased uptake, 2=moderately decreased uptake, 3=severely decreased uptake, and 4=complete defect. 123I-BMIPP uptake was compared with rest MBF, hyperemic MBF, and MFR. The numbers of segments with 123I-BMIPP scores 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4 were 178, 40, 25, 24, and 0, respectively. The rest MBFs for scores 0, 1, 2, and 3 were 0.93+/-0.25, 0.86+/-0.21, 0.97+/-0.30, and 0.99+/-0.37 ml/min/g, respectively. The hyperemic MBFs for scores 0, 1, 2, and 3 were 2.76+/-1.29, 1.84+/-0.74, 1.37+/-0.39, and 1.08+/-0.40 ml/min/g, respectively. The MFRs for scores 0, 1, 2, and 3 were 3.01+/-1.38, 2.20+/-0.95, 1.44+/-0.22, and 1.10+/-0.26, respectively. As 123I-BMIPP uptake declined, hyperemic MBF and MFR decreased. In chronic stable angina without previous infarction, reduced 123I-BMIPP uptake implies decreased MFR.

  15. Reduced {sup 123}I-BMIPP uptake implies decreased myocardial flow reserve in patients with chronic stable angina

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kageyama, Hiroyuki; Morita, Koichi; Katoh, Chietsugu; Mabuchi, Megumi; Tamaki, Nagara [Hokkaido University Graduate School of Medicine, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Sapporo (Japan); Tsukamoto, Takahiro; Noriyasu, Kazuyuki; Naya, Masanao [Hokkaido University, Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, Sapporo (Japan); Hokkaido University Graduate School of Medicine, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Sapporo (Japan); Kawai, Yuko [Hokko Memorial Hospital, Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, Sapporo (Japan)

    2006-01-01

    Long-chain fatty acid (LCFA) is the main energy source for normal myocardium at rest, but in ischemic myocardium, the main energy substrate shifts from LCFA to glucose. {sup 123}I-BMIPP is a radiolabeled LCFA analog. In chronic stable angina without previous infarction, we suppose that reduced {sup 123}I-BMIPP uptake is related to the substrate shift in myocardium with decreased myocardial flow reserve (MFR). The purpose of this study was to relate {sup 123}I-BMIPP uptake to rest myocardial blood flow (MBF), hyperemic MBF, and MFR assessed with {sup 15}O-water positron emission tomography (PET). We enrolled 21 patients with chronic stable angina without previous infarction, all of whom underwent {sup 123}I-BMIPP single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) and {sup 15}O-water PET. The left ventricle was divided into 13 segments. In each segment, rest MBF and hyperemic MBF were measured by PET. {sup 123}I-BMIPP uptake was evaluated as follows: score 0=normal, 1=slightly decreased uptake, 2=moderately decreased uptake, 3=severely decreased uptake, and 4=complete defect. {sup 123}I-BMIPP uptake was compared with rest MBF, hyperemic MBF, and MFR. The numbers of segments with {sup 123}I-BMIPP scores 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4 were 178, 40, 25, 24, and 0, respectively. The rest MBFs for scores 0, 1, 2, and 3 were 0.93{+-}0.25, 0.86{+-}0.21, 0.97{+-}0.30, and 0.99{+-}0.37 ml/min/g, respectively. The hyperemic MBFs for scores 0, 1, 2, and 3 were 2.76{+-}1.29, 1.84{+-}0.74, 1.37{+-}0.39, and 1.08{+-}0.40 ml/min/g, respectively. The MFRs for scores 0, 1, 2, and 3 were 3.01{+-}1.38, 2.20{+-}0.95, 1.44{+-}0.22, and 1.10{+-}0.26, respectively. As {sup 123}I-BMIPP uptake declined, hyperemic MBF and MFR decreased. In chronic stable angina without previous infarction, reduced {sup 123}I-BMIPP uptake implies decreased MFR. (orig.)

  16. Accurately measuring sea level change from space: an ESA Climate Change Initiative for MSL closure budget studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Legeais, Jean-Francois; Cazenave, Anny; Larnicol, Gille

    Sea level is a very sensitive index of climate change and variability. Sea level integrates the ocean warming, mountain glaciers and ice sheet melting. Understanding the sea level variability and changes implies an accurate monitoring of the sea level variable at climate scales, in addition...... in the Arctic Ocean and in coastal areas for which preliminary results suggest that significant improvements can be achieved....

  17. Effect of historical land-use and climate change on tree-climate relationships in the upper Midwestern United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goring, Simon J; Williams, John W

    2017-04-01

    Contemporary forest inventory data are widely used to understand environmental controls on tree species distributions and to construct models to project forest responses to climate change, but the stability and representativeness of contemporary tree-climate relationships are poorly understood. We show that tree-climate relationships for 15 tree genera in the upper Midwestern US have significantly altered over the last two centuries due to historical land-use and climate change. Realised niches have shifted towards higher minimum temperatures and higher rainfall. A new attribution method implicates both historical climate change and land-use in these shifts, with the relative importance varying among genera and climate variables. Most climate/land-use interactions are compounding, in which historical land-use reinforces shifts in species-climate relationships toward wetter distributions, or confounding, in which land-use complicates shifts towards warmer distributions. Compounding interactions imply that contemporary-based models of species distributions may underestimate species resilience to climate change.

  18. Funding climate adaptation strategies with climate derivatives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Richard Little

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate adaptation requires large capital investments that could be provided not only by traditional sources like governments and banks, but also by derivatives markets. Such markets would allow two parties with different tolerances and expectations about climate risks to transact for their mutual benefit and, in so doing, finance climate adaptation. Here we calculate the price of a derivative called a European put option, based on future sea surface temperature (SST in Tasmania, Australia, with an 18 °C strike threshold. This price represents a quantifiable indicator of climate risk, and forms the basis for aquaculture industries exposed to the risk of higher SST to finance adaptation strategies through the sale of derivative contracts. Such contracts provide a real incentive to parties with different climate outlooks, or risk exposure to take a market assessment of climate change.

  19. Fair division theory and climate change policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Helm, C. [Technical University Darmstadt (Germany). Department of Law and Economics

    2008-09-30

    This paper analyzes the fair division of common property resources when monetary compensations are feasible. A prominent example is the fair division of the atmosphere's limited absorptive capacity for greenhouse gases. I propose a solution that is Pareto efficient and satisfies the axiomatic fair division criteria of individual rationality, stand-alone upper bound, and a version of envy-freeness. The latter criterion is adapted to problems where monetary compensations can be used to facilitate the fair division of the common resource. Applied to climate change, the solution implies that developing countries should participate in emission reduction efforts, but should be fully compensated for their incremental abatement costs.

  20. Globally synchronous climate change 2800 years ago: Proxy data from peat in South America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chambers, Frank M.; Mauquoy, Dmitri; Brain, Sally A.; Blaauw, Maarten; Daniell, John R. G.

    2007-01-01

    Initial findings from high-latitude ice-cores implied a relatively unvarying Holocene climate, in contrast to the major climate swings in the preceding late-Pleistocene. However, several climate archives from low latitudes imply a less than equable Holocene climate, as do recent studies on peat bogs in mainland north-west Europe, which indicate an abrupt climate cooling 2800 years ago, with parallels claimed in a range of climate archives elsewhere. A hypothesis that this claimed climate shift was global, and caused by reduced solar activity, has recently been disputed. Until now, no directly comparable data were available from the southern hemisphere to help resolve the dispute. Building on investigations of the vegetation history of an extensive mire in the Valle de Andorra, Tierra del Fuego, we took a further peat core from the bog to generate a high-resolution climate history through the use of determination of peat humification and quantitative leaf-count plant macrofossil analysis. Here, we present the new proxy-climate data from the bog in South America. The data are directly comparable with those in Europe, as they were produced using identical laboratory methods. They show that there was a major climate perturbation at the same time as in northwest European bogs. Its timing, nature and apparent global synchronicity lend support to the notion of solar forcing of past climate change, amplified by oceanic circulation. This finding of a similar response simultaneously in both hemispheres may help validate and improve global climate models. That reduced solar activity might cause a global climatic change suggests that attention be paid also to consideration of any global climate response to increases in solar activity. This has implications for interpreting the relative contribution of climate drivers of recent 'global warming'.

  1. Preparing for climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holdgate, M

    1989-01-01

    There is a distinct probability that humankind is changing the climate and at the same time raising the sea level of the world. The most plausible projections we have now suggest a rise in mean world temperature of between 1 degree Celsius and 2 degrees Celsius by 2030--just 40 years hence. This is a bigger change in a smaller period than we know of in the experience of the earth's ecosystems and human societies. It implies that by 2030 the earth will be warmer than at any time in the past 120,000 years. In the same period, we are likely to see a rise of 15-30 centimeters in sea level, partly due to the melting of mountain glaciers and partly to the expansion of the warmer seas. This may not seem much--but it comes on top of the 12-centimeter rise in the past century and we should recall that over 1/2 the world's population lives in zones on or near coasts. A quarter meter rise in sea level could have drastic consequences for countries like the Maldives or the Netherlands, where much of the land lies below the 2-meter contour. The cause of climate change is known as the 'greenhouse effect'. Greenhouse glass has the property that it is transparent to radiation coming in from the sun, but holds back radiation to space from the warmed surfaces inside the greenhouse. Certain gases affect the atmosphere in the same way. There are 5 'greenhouse gases' and we have been roofing ourselves with them all: carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere have increased 25% above preindustrial levels and are likely to double within a century, due to tropical forest clearance and especially to the burning of increasing quantities of coal and other fossil fuels; methane concentrations are now twice their preindustrial levels as a result of releases from agriculture; nitrous oxide has increased due to land clearance for agriculture, use of fertilizers, and fossil fuel combustion; ozone levels near the earth's surface have increased due mainly to pollution from motor vehicles; and

  2. FUTURE CLIMATE ANALYSIS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    R.M. Forester

    2000-03-14

    This Analysis/Model Report (AMR) documents an analysis that was performed to estimate climatic variables for the next 10,000 years by forecasting the timing and nature of climate change at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada (Figure l), the site of a potential repository for high-level radioactive waste. The future-climate estimates are based on an analysis of past-climate data from analog meteorological stations, and this AMR provides the rationale for the selection of these analog stations. The stations selected provide an upper and a lower climate bound for each future climate, and the data from those sites will provide input to the infiltration model (USGS 2000) and for the total system performance assessment for the Site Recommendation (TSPA-SR) at YM. Forecasting long-term future climates, especially for the next 10,000 years, is highly speculative and rarely attempted. A very limited literature exists concerning the subject, largely from the British radioactive waste disposal effort. The discussion presented here is one method, among many, of establishing upper and lower bounds for future climate estimates. The method used here involves selecting a particular past climate from many past climates, as an analog for future climate. Other studies might develop a different rationale or select other past climates resulting in a different future climate analog.

  3. Adaptations to climate-mediated selective pressures in humans.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angela M Hancock

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Humans inhabit a remarkably diverse range of environments, and adaptation through natural selection has likely played a central role in the capacity to survive and thrive in extreme climates. Unlike numerous studies that used only population genetic data to search for evidence of selection, here we scan the human genome for selection signals by identifying the SNPs with the strongest correlations between allele frequencies and climate across 61 worldwide populations. We find a striking enrichment of genic and nonsynonymous SNPs relative to non-genic SNPs among those that are strongly correlated with these climate variables. Among the most extreme signals, several overlap with those from GWAS, including SNPs associated with pigmentation and autoimmune diseases. Further, we find an enrichment of strong signals in gene sets related to UV radiation, infection and immunity, and cancer. Our results imply that adaptations to climate shaped the spatial distribution of variation in humans.

  4. Natural Climate Variability and Future Climate Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ricke, K.; Caldeira, K.

    2013-12-01

    Individual beliefs about climate change and willingness-to-pay for its mitigation are influenced by local weather and climate. Large ensemble climate modeling experiments have demonstrated the large role natural variability plays in local weather and climate on a multidecadal timescale. Here we illustrate how if support for global climate policies and subsequent implementation of those policies are determined by citizens' local experiences, natural variability could influence the timeline for implementation of emissions reduction policies by decades. The response of complex social systems to local and regional changes in weather and climate cannot be quantitatively predicted with confidence. Both the form and timing of the societal response can be affected by interactions between social systems and the physical climate system. Here, to illustrate one type of influence decadal natural variability can have on climate policy, we consider a simple example in which the only question is when, if ever, the different parties will support emissions reduction. To analyze the potential effect that unpredictable extreme events may have on the time to reach a global agreement on climate policy, we analyzed the output from a 40-member Community Climate System Model version 3 simulation ensemble to illustrate how local experiences might affect the timing of acceptance of strong climate policy measures. We assume that a nation's decision to take strong actions to abate emissions is contingent upon the local experiences of its citizens and then examine how the timelines for policy action may be influenced by variability in local weather. To illustrate, we assume that a social 'tipping point' is reached at the national level occurs when half of the population of a nation has experienced a sufficiently extreme event. If climate policies are driven by democratic consensus then variability in weather could result in significantly disparate times-to-action. For the top six CO2 emitters

  5. Organizational Climates: An Essay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, Benjamin

    1975-01-01

    The purposes of this essay are to (a) present some evidence about the importance of the climate concept as an aid in understanding employee behavior in work organizations and (b) provide a framework for guiding future climate research. (Author)

  6. Climate for Change?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wejs, Anja

    ’ results are presented in five journal articles. The articles’ areas of investigation take as their point of departure three planning areas that serve as planning tools for climate change integration: climate change planning, municipal spatial planning and strategic environmental assessment (SEA......Cities rather than national governments take the lead in acting on climate change. Several cities have voluntarily created climate change plans to prevent and prepare for the effects of climate change. In the literature climate change has been examined as a multilevel governance area taking place...... the constraints on climate change planning at the local level are absent. To understand these constraints, this PhD thesis investigates the institutional dynamics that influence the process of the integration of climate change into planning practices at the local level in Denmark. The examination of integration...

  7. Organizational Climates: An Essay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, Benjamin

    1975-01-01

    The purposes of this essay are to (a) present some evidence about the importance of the climate concept as an aid in understanding employee behavior in work organizations and (b) provide a framework for guiding future climate research. (Author)

  8. Climate Change and Health

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... sheets Fact files Questions & answers Features Multimedia Contacts Climate change and health Fact sheet Reviewed June 2016 Key ... in improved health, particularly through reduced air pollution. Climate change Over the last 50 years, human activities – particularly ...

  9. Doriot Climatic Chambers

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — The Doriot Climatic Chambers are two, 60-feet long, 11-feet high, 15-feet wide chambers that are owned and operated by NSRDEC. The Doriot Climatic Chambers are among...

  10. Regional Climate Change Hotspots over Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anber, U.; Zakey, A.; Abd El Wahab, M.

    2009-04-01

    annual variability, which is critical for many activity sectors, such as agriculture and water management. The RCCI is calculated for the above mentioned set of global climate change simulations and is inter compared across regions to identify climate change, Hot- Spots, that is regions with the largest values of RCCI. It is important to stress that, as will be seen, the RCCI is a comparative index, that is a small RCCI value does not imply a small absolute change, but only a small climate response compared to other regions. The models used are: CCMA-3-T47 CNRM-CM3 CSIRO-MK3 GFDL-CM2-0 GISS-ER INMCM3 IPSL-CM4 MIROC3-2M MIUB-ECHO-G MPI-ECHAM5 MRI-CGCM2 NCAR-CCSM3 NCAR-PCM1 UKMO-HADCM3

  11. Abrupt change in climate and climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. J. Pitman

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available First, we review the evidence that abrupt climate changes have occurred in the past and then demonstrate that climate models have developing capacity to simulate many of these changes. In particular, the processes by which changes in the ocean circulation drive abrupt changes appear to be captured by climate models to a degree that is encouraging. The evidence that past changes in the ocean have driven abrupt change in terrestrial systems is also convincing, but these processes are only just beginning to be included in climate models. Second, we explore the likelihood that climate models can capture those abrupt changes in climate that may occur in the future due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. We note that existing evidence indicates that a major collapse of the thermohaline circulation seems unlikely in the 21st century, although very recent evidence suggests that a weakening may already be underway. We have confidence that current climate models can capture a weakening, but a collapse in the 21st century of the thermohaline circulation is not projected by climate models. Worrying evidence of instability in terrestrial carbon, from observations and modelling studies, is beginning to accumulate. Current climate models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for the 4th Assessment Report do not include these terrestrial carbon processes. We therefore can not make statements with any confidence regarding these changes. At present, the scale of the terrestrial carbon feedback is believed to be small enough that it does not significantly affect projections of warming during the first half of the 21st century. However, the uncertainties in how biological systems will respond to warming are sufficiently large to undermine confidence in this belief and point us to areas requiring significant additional work.

  12. Abrupt change in climate and climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. J. Pitman

    2006-07-01

    Full Text Available First, we review the evidence that abrupt climate changes have occurred in the past and then demonstrate that climate models have developing capacity to simulate many of these changes. In particular, the processes by which changes in the ocean circulation drive abrupt changes appear to be captured by climate models to a degree that is encouraging. The evidence that past changes in the ocean have driven abrupt change in terrestrial systems is also convincing, but these processes are only just beginning to be included in climate models. Second, we explore the likelihood that climate models can capture those abrupt changes in climate that may occur in the future due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. We note that existing evidence indicates that a major collapse of the thermohaline circulate seems unlikely in the 21st century, although very recent evidence suggests that a weakening may already be underway. We have confidence that current climate models can capture a weakening, but a collapse of the thermohaline circulation in the 21st century is not projected by climate models. Worrying evidence of instability in terrestrial carbon, from observations and modelling studies, is beginning to accumulate. Current climate models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for the 4th Assessment Report do not include these terrestrial carbon processes. We therefore can not make statements with any confidence regarding these changes. At present, the scale of the terrestrial carbon feedback is believed to be small enough that it does not significantly affect projections of warming during the first half of the 21st century. However, the uncertainties in how biological systems will respond to warming are sufficiently large to undermine confidence in this belief and point us to areas requiring significant additional work.

  13. Gender and Climate Justice

    OpenAIRE

    Ana Agostino; Rosa Lizarde

    2012-01-01

    Ana Agostino and Rosa Lizarde explore the concept of climate justice as a rights approach to climate change. They propose that those in the South who are most affected by environmental changes need to receive justice from those in the North who are most responsible for climate change. They apply a gender lens to climate change, analyzing how women have been specifically hit by the phenomenon and how they are responding.

  14. Climate Change Adaptation in the Urban Environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilbanks, Thomas J [ORNL

    2011-01-01

    This overview chapter considers five questions that cut across the four case studies in the section to follow: (1) why are urban environments of particular interest; (2) what does an 'urban environment' mean as a focus for adaptation actions, (3) what do we know about climate change vulnerabilities and adaptation potentials in urban areas; (4) what can we expect in the future with adaptation in urban areas; and (5) what is happening with climate change adaptation in urban areas? After decades of inattention, adaptation to risks and impacts of climate change is now receiving long overdue attention, and it is only natural that a considerable share of this attention is focused on the places where most people live. This section considers climate change adaptation in the urban environment, defined as settings where human populations cluster - generally implying relatively large clusters, but not excluding smaller settlements that operate as coherent geopolitical and economic entities. Consistent with the topic of the book, the emphasis of this overview will be on urban environments in developed countries, but it will also draw on knowledge being developed from urban experiences across the globe.

  15. Climate change and amphibian diversity patterns in Mexico

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ochoa-Ochoa, Leticia M.; Rodríguez, Pilar; Mora, Franz

    2012-01-01

    of presence and dispersal capability) in the modelling processes. We simulated the base line (2000) and future scenarios for Mexican amphibian diversity (2020, 2050, 2080), using climate data layers constructed for Mexico. Using moving-window analyses of different sizes (9, 25, 100, 225 and 400 km2) we...... country boundaries) were particularly intense during the period 2020–2050. The results implied that heterogeneous zones associated with mountain ranges will remain particularly important for amphibian diversity and thus constitute areas for continued conservation prioritization in the face of climate...

  16. Regionalizing global climate models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pitman, A.J.; Arneth, A.; Ganzeveld, L.N.

    2012-01-01

    Global climate models simulate the Earth's climate impressively at scales of continents and greater. At these scales, large-scale dynamics and physics largely define the climate. At spatial scales relevant to policy makers, and to impacts and adaptation, many other processes may affect regional and

  17. Climate Observations from Space

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briggs, Stephen

    2016-07-01

    The latest Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Status Report on global climate observations, delivered to the UNFCCC COP21 in November 2016, showed how satellite data are critical for observations relating to climate. Of the 50 Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) identified by GCOS as necessary for understanding climate change, about half are derived only from satellite data while half of the remainder have a significant input from satellites. Hence data from Earth observing satellite systems are now a fundamental requirement for understanding the climate system and for managing the consequences of climate change. Following the Paris Agreement of COP21 this need is only greater. Not only will satellites have to continue to provide data for modelling and predicting climate change but also for a much wider range of actions relating to climate. These include better information on loss and damage, resilience, improved adaptation to change, and on mitigation including information on greenhouse gas emissions. In addition there is an emerging need for indicators of the risks associated with future climate change which need to be better quantified, allowing policy makers both to understand what decisions need to be taken, and to see the consequences of their actions. The presentation will set out some of the ways in which satellite data are important in all aspects of understanding, managing and predicting climate change and how they may be used to support future decisions by those responsible for policy related to managing climate change and its consequences.

  18. Climate Change Law

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Farber, D.A.; Peeters, Marjan

    2016-01-01

    This book brings together over seventy fifty authors for a comprehensive examination of the emerging global regime of climate change law. Despite the relative youth of climate change law, we can already begin to see the outlines of legal regimes addressing climate change mitigation and adaptation (a

  19. IPCC's Climate Communication

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Almlund, Pernille

    all the IPCC’s assessment report have concluded that climate changes are human made and recently stated that 97 % of all climate researchers agree in that conclusion. Due to the theoretical work of Michel Callon, Lascoumes and Barthe (2011) and their ANT perspective, climate change can be observed...

  20. Climate models and scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fortelius, C.; Holopainen, E.; Kaurola, J.; Ruosteenoja, K.; Raeisaenen, J. [Helsinki Univ. (Finland). Dept. of Meteorology

    1996-12-31

    In recent years the modelling of interannual climate variability has been studied, the atmospheric energy and water cycles, and climate simulations with the ECHAM3 model. In addition, the climate simulations of several models have been compared with special emphasis in the area of northern Europe

  1. Regionalizing global climate models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pitman, A.J.; Arneth, A.; Ganzeveld, L.N.

    2012-01-01

    Global climate models simulate the Earth's climate impressively at scales of continents and greater. At these scales, large-scale dynamics and physics largely define the climate. At spatial scales relevant to policy makers, and to impacts and adaptation, many other processes may affect regional and

  2. Simulating Global Climate Summits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vesperman, Dean P.; Haste, Turtle; Alrivy, Stéphane

    2014-01-01

    One of the most persistent and controversial issues facing the global community is climate change. With the creation of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1992 and the Kyoto Protocol (1997), the global community established some common ground on how to address this issue. However, the last several climate summits have failed…

  3. Climate change assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linda A. Joyce

    2008-01-01

    The science associated with climate and its effects on ecosystems, economies, and social systems is developing rapidly. Climate change assessments can serve as an important synthesis of this science and provide the information and context for management and policy decisions on adaptation and mitigation. This topic paper describes the variety of climate change...

  4. Simulating Global Climate Summits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vesperman, Dean P.; Haste, Turtle; Alrivy, Stéphane

    2014-01-01

    One of the most persistent and controversial issues facing the global community is climate change. With the creation of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1992 and the Kyoto Protocol (1997), the global community established some common ground on how to address this issue. However, the last several climate summits have failed…

  5. Philosophy of climate science part I: observing climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Frigg, Roman; Thompson, Erica; Werndl, Charlotte

    2015-01-01

    This is the first of three parts of an introduction to the philosophy of climate science. In this first part about observing climate change, the topics of definitions of climate and climate change, data sets and data models, detection of climate change, and attribution of climate change will be discussed.

  6. Climate Leadership Awards Frequent Questions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Provides answers to frequently asked questions regarding the Climate Leadership Awards, sponsored by EPA's Center for Corporate Climate Leadership with co-sponsorship from the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions and The Climate Registry.

  7. Climate-society feedbacks and the avoidance of dangerous climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jarvis, A. J.; Leedal, D. T.; Hewitt, C. N.

    2012-09-01

    The growth in anthropogenic CO2 emissions experienced since the onset of the Industrial Revolution is the most important disturbance operating on the Earth's climate system. To avoid dangerous climate change, future greenhouse-gas emissions will have to deviate from business-as-usual trajectories. This implies that feedback links need to exist between climate change and societal actions. Here, we show that, consciously or otherwise, these feedbacks can be represented by linking global mean temperature change to the growth dynamics of CO2 emissions. We show that the global growth of new renewable sources of energy post-1990 represents a climate-society feedback of ~0.25%yr-1 per degree increase in global mean temperature. We also show that to fulfil the outcomes negotiated in Durban in 2011, society will have to become ~ 50 times more responsive to global mean temperature change than it has been since 1990. If global energy use continues to grow as it has done historically then this would result in amplification of the long-term endogenous rate of decarbonization from -0.6%yr-1 to ~-13%yr-1. It is apparent that modest levels of feedback sensitivity pay large dividends in avoiding climate change but that the marginal return on this effort diminishes rapidly as the required feedback strength increases.

  8. Breeding the oil palm (Elaeis guineensis Jacq.) for climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Rival Alain

    2017-01-01

    Breeding the oil palm (Elaeis guineensis Jacq.) for climate change requires multidisciplinary and collaborative research by nature: indeed – besides genetics and structural and functional genomics – almost all disciplines related to life sciences are involved. Research work also relies on the identification of genetic variation in the strategies of response to stress developed by the plant: this implies the exploration of resources provided by natural variation, germplasm collections, selecte...

  9. Climate vulnerability of drinking water supplies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selmeczi, Pál; Homolya, Emese; Rotárné Szalkai, Ágnes

    2016-04-01

    Extreme weather conditions in Hungary led to difficulties in drinking water management on diverse occasions in the past. Due to reduced water resources and the coexisting high demand for drinking water in dry summer periods the availability of a number of water supplies became insufficient therefore causing limitations in water access. In some other cases, as a result of floods and flash floods over karstic areas evolving in consequence of excessive precipitation, several water supplies had to be excluded in order to avoid the risk of infections. More frequent occurrence of extreme weather conditions and further possible changes in the future induce the necessity for an analysis of the vulnerability of drinking water resources to climate change. Since 95% of the total drinking water supply in Hungary originates from subsurface layers, significance of groundwater resources is outstanding. The aim of our work carried out in the frames of the NAGiS (National Adaptation Geo-information System) project was to build up a methodology for the study and determination of the vulnerability of drinking water supplies to climate. The task covered analyses of climatic parameters influencing drinking water supplies principally and hydrogeological characteristics of the geological media that significantly determines vulnerability. Effects on drinking water resources and their reduction or exclusion may imply societal and economic consequences therefore we extended the analyses to the investigation of possibilities concerning the adaptation capacity to changed conditions. We applied the CIVAS (Climate Impact and Vulnerability Assessment Scheme) model developed in the frames of the international climate research project CLAVIER (Climate Change and Variability: Impact on Central and Eastern Europe) to characterize climate vulnerability of drinking water supplies. The CIVAS model, being based on the combined evaluation of exposure, sensitivity and adaptability, provides a unified

  10. Addressing Climate Crisis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    @@ A series of extreme global weather events,like floods in Pakistan and droughts in Russia,should serve as a call to the world to take action against climate change.But worries have been mounting since global climate talks stalled,partly due to rifts between developed and developing countries.What efforts should be made to force progress in the negotiating process? What role has China played in combating climate change? Su Wei,China's chief climate negotiator and Director-General of the Climate Change Department of the National Development and Reform Commission(NDRC),sat down with Beijing Review reporter Hu Yue to answer these questions and more.

  11. Cosmic Rays and Climate

    CERN Document Server

    Kirkby, Jasper

    2007-01-01

    Among the most puzzling questions in climate change is that of solar-climate variability, which has attracted the attention of scientists for more than two centuries. Until recently, even the existence of solar-climate variability has been controversial—perhaps because the observations had largely involved correlations between climate and the sunspot cycle that had persisted for only a few decades. Over the last few years, however, diverse reconstructions of past climate change have revealed clear associations with cosmic ray variations recorded in cosmogenic isotope archives, providing persuasive evidence for solar or cosmic ray forcing of the climate. However, despite the increasing evidence of its importance, solar-climate variability is likely to remain controversial until a physical mechanism is established. Although this remains a mystery, observations suggest that cloud cover may be influenced by cosmic rays, which are modulated by the solar wind and, on longer time scales, by the geomagnetic fiel...

  12. Climate Change in Prehistory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burroughs, William James

    2005-06-01

    How did humankind deal with the extreme challenges of the last Ice Age? How have the relatively benign post-Ice Age conditions affected the evolution and spread of humanity across the globe? By setting our genetic history in the context of climate change during prehistory, the origin of many features of our modern world are identified and presented in this illuminating book. It reviews the aspects of our physiology and intellectual development that have been influenced by climatic factors, and how features of our lives - diet, language and the domestication of animals - are also the product of the climate in which we evolved. In short: climate change in prehistory has in many ways made us what we are today. Climate Change in Prehistory weaves together studies of the climate with anthropological, archaeological and historical studies, and will fascinate all those interested in the effects of climate on human development and history.

  13. What Is Climate?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lovejoy, S.

    2013-01-01

    Most people have an intuitive understanding of the weather as referring to the state of the atmosphere at a given time and place and of the climate as a kind of average weather. A popular expression of this dichotomy is "the climate is what you expect, the weather is what you get" (Heinlein [1973, p. 352], although often attributed to Mark Twain). Implicit in this belief is the notion of climate as a kind of constant natural state to which the weather would converge if it were averaged over a long enough period. A corollary is that climate change is a consequence of "climate forcings," which are external to the natural climate system and which tend to prevent averages from converging to their true values. In this framework, past climate change may be attributed to orbital changes, variations in solar output, volcanic eruptions, etc. For the recent period, anthropogenic forcings can be added.

  14. Financing climate change adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouwer, Laurens M; Aerts, Jeroen C J H

    2006-03-01

    This paper examines the topic of financing adaptation in future climate change policies. A major question is whether adaptation in developing countries should be financed under the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), or whether funding should come from other sources. We present an overview of financial resources and propose the employment of a two-track approach: one track that attempts to secure climate change adaptation funding under the UNFCCC; and a second track that improves mainstreaming of climate risk management in development efforts. Developed countries would need to demonstrate much greater commitment to the funding of adaptation measures if the UNFCCC were to cover a substantial part of the costs. The mainstreaming of climate change adaptation could follow a risk management path, particularly in relation to disaster risk reduction. 'Climate-proofing' of development projects that currently do not consider climate and weather risks could improve their sustainability.

  15. A description of persistent climatic anomalies in a 1000-year climatic model simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunt, B. G.

    The Mark 2 version of the CSIRO coupled global climatic model has been used to generate a 1000-year simulation of natural (i.e. unforced) climatic variability representative of ``present conditions''. The annual mean output from the simulation has been used to investigate the occurrence of decadal and longer trends over the globe for a number of climatic variables. Here trends are defined to be periods of years with a climatic anomaly of a given sign. The analysis reveals substantial differences between the trend characteristics of the various climatic variables. Trends longer than 12years duration were unusual for rainfall. Such trends were fairly uniformly distributed over the globe and had an asymmetry in the rate of occurrence for wet or dry conditions. On the other hand, trends in surface wind stress, and especially the atmospheric screen temperature, were of longer duration but primarily confined to oceanic regions. The trends in the atmospheric screen temperature could be traced deep into the oceanic mixed layer, implying large changes in oceanic thermal inertia. This thermal inertia then constituted an important component of the `memory' of the climatic system. While the geographic region associated with a given trend could be identified over several adjacent grid boxes of the model, regional plots for individual years of the trend revealed a range of variations, suggesting that a consistent forcing mechanism may not be responsible for a trend at a given location. Typical return periods for 12-year rainfall trends were once in 1000years, highlighting the rarity of such events. Using a looser definition of a trend revealed that drying trends up to 50 years duration were also possible, attributable solely to natural climatic variability. Significant ( 20% to 40%) rainfall reductions per year can be associated with a long-term drying trend, hence such events are of considerable climatic significance. It can take more than 100years for the hydrologic losses

  16. Climate plan 2004; Plan climat 2004

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2004-07-01

    The Climate Plan is an action plan drawn up by the French Government to respond to the climate change challenge, first by 2010 (complying with the Kyoto Protocol target), and, secondly, beyond this date. Projections for France show that national emissions could be 10% higher than the Kyoto target in 2010 if no measures are taken. This is particularly due to increasing emissions in the sectors affecting daily life (residential-tertiary sectors, transport, etc.). For this reason, the Climate Plan contains measures affecting all sectors of the economy and the daily life of all French citizens with a view to economizing the equivalent of 54 million tonnes of CO{sub 2} each year by the year 2010, which will help to reverse the trend significantly. Beyond 2010, the Climate Plan sets out a strategy for technological research which will enable France to meet a target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions four or fivefold by 2050. (author)

  17. Winter climate change: a critical factor for temperate vegetation performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kreyling, Juergen

    2010-07-01

    Winter ecological processes are important drivers of vegetation and ecosystem functioning in temperate ecosystems. There, winter conditions are subject to rapid climate change. The potential loss of a longer-lasting snow cover with implications to other plant-related climate parameters and overwintering strategies make the temperate zone particularly vulnerable to winter climate change. A formalized literature search in the ISI Web of Science shows that plant related research on the effects of winter climate change is generally underrepresented. Temperate regions in particular are rarely studied in this respect, although the few existing studies imply strong effects of winter climate change on species ranges, species compositions, phenology, or frost injury. The generally positive effect of warming on plant survival and production may be counteracted by effects such as an increased frost injury of roots and shoots, an increased insect pest risk, or a disrupted synchrony between plants and pollinators. Based on the literature study, gaps in current knowledge are discussed. Understanding the relative effects of interacting climate parameters, as well as a stronger consideration of shortterm events and variability of climatic conditions is urgent. With respect to plant response, it would be particularly worthwhile to account for hidden players such as pathogens, pollinators, herbivores, or fungal partners in mycorrhization.

  18. Managing for multiple resources under climate change: national forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joyce, Linda A; Blate, Geoffrey M; McNulty, Steven G; Millar, Constance I; Moser, Susanne; Neilson, Ronald P; Peterson, David L

    2009-12-01

    This study explores potential adaptation approaches in planning and management that the United States Forest Service might adopt to help achieve its goals and objectives in the face of climate change. Availability of information, vulnerability of ecological and socio-economic systems, and uncertainties associated with climate change, as well as the interacting non-climatic changes, influence selection of the adaptation approach. Resource assessments are opportunities to develop strategic information that could be used to identify and link adaptation strategies across planning levels. Within a National Forest, planning must incorporate the opportunity to identify vulnerabilities to climate change as well as incorporate approaches that allow management adjustments as the effects of climate change become apparent. The nature of environmental variability, the inevitability of novelty and surprise, and the range of management objectives and situations across the National Forest System implies that no single approach will fit all situations. A toolbox of management options would include practices focused on forestalling climate change effects by building resistance and resilience into current ecosystems, and on managing for change by enabling plants, animals, and ecosystems to adapt to climate change. Better and more widespread implementation of already known practices that reduce the impact of existing stressors represents an important "no regrets" strategy. These management opportunities will require agency consideration of its adaptive capacity, and ways to overcome potential barriers to these adaptation options.

  19. Phylogenetic approaches reveal biodiversity threats under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    González-Orozco, Carlos E.; Pollock, Laura J.; Thornhill, Andrew H.; Mishler, Brent D.; Knerr, Nunzio; Laffan, Shawn W.; Miller, Joseph T.; Rosauer, Dan F.; Faith, Daniel P.; Nipperess, David A.; Kujala, Heini; Linke, Simon; Butt, Nathalie; Külheim, Carsten; Crisp, Michael D.; Gruber, Bernd

    2016-12-01

    Predicting the consequences of climate change for biodiversity is critical to conservation efforts. Extensive range losses have been predicted for thousands of individual species, but less is known about how climate change might impact whole clades and landscape-scale patterns of biodiversity. Here, we show that climate change scenarios imply significant changes in phylogenetic diversity and phylogenetic endemism at a continental scale in Australia using the hyper-diverse clade of eucalypts. We predict that within the next 60 years the vast majority of species distributions (91%) across Australia will shrink in size (on average by 51%) and shift south on the basis of projected suitable climatic space. Geographic areas currently with high phylogenetic diversity and endemism are predicted to change substantially in future climate scenarios. Approximately 90% of the current areas with concentrations of palaeo-endemism (that is, places with old evolutionary diversity) are predicted to disappear or shift their location. These findings show that climate change threatens whole clades of the phylogenetic tree, and that the outlined approach can be used to forecast areas of biodiversity losses and continental-scale impacts of climate change.

  20. Ocean-atmosphere interactions modulate irrigation's climate impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krakauer, Nir Y.; Puma, Michael J.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Gentine, Pierre; Nazarenko, Larissa

    2016-11-01

    Numerous studies have focused on the local and regional climate effects of irrigated agriculture and other land cover and land use change (LCLUC) phenomena, but there are few studies on the role of ocean-atmosphere interaction in modulating irrigation climate impacts. Here, we compare simulations with and without interactive sea surface temperatures of the equilibrium effect on climate of contemporary (year 2000) irrigation geographic extent and intensity. We find that ocean-atmosphere interaction does impact the magnitude of global-mean and spatially varying climate impacts, greatly increasing their global reach. Local climate effects in the irrigated regions remain broadly similar, while non-local effects, particularly over the oceans, tend to be larger. The interaction amplifies irrigation-driven standing wave patterns in the tropics and midlatitudes in our simulations, approximately doubling the global-mean amplitude of surface temperature changes due to irrigation. The fractions of global area experiencing significant annual-mean surface air temperature and precipitation change also approximately double with ocean-atmosphere interaction. Subject to confirmation with other models, these findings imply that LCLUC is an important contributor to climate change even in remote areas such as the Southern Ocean, and that attribution studies should include interactive oceans and need to consider LCLUC, including irrigation, as a truly global forcing that affects climate and the water cycle over ocean as well as land areas.

  1. Consideration of climate change on environmental impact assessment in Spain

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Enríquez-de-Salamanca, Álvaro, E-mail: aenriquez@draba.org [Escuela de Doctorado, Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia, UNED, Draba Ingeniería y Consultoría Medioambiental, Cañada Nueva, 29, 28200 San Lorenzo de El Escorial (Spain); Martín-Aranda, Rosa M., E-mail: rmartin@ccia.uned.es [Departamento de Química Inorgánica y Química Técnica, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia, UNED, Paseo Senda del Rey, 9, 28040, Madrid (Spain); Díaz-Sierra, Rubén, E-mail: sierra@dfmf.uned.es [Departamento de Física Matemática y de Fluidos, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia, UNED, Paseo Senda del Rey, 9, 28040, Madrid (Spain)

    2016-02-15

    Most of the projects subject to environmental impact assessment (EIA) are closely related to climate change, as they contribute to or are affected by it. The growing certainty about climate change and its impacts makes its consideration an essential part of the EIA process, as well as in strategic environmental assessment (SEA). This paper examines how climate change (CC) has been taken into account in EIA in Spain through the analysis of 1713 environmental records of decision (RODs) of projects submitted for EIA. In 2013 Spain approved one of the most advanced laws in terms of CC consideration in environmental assessment, although it had not yet accumulated extensive practice on the issue. This contrasts with the situation of countries like Canada or the USA, which have a significant body of experience without specific legal requirements. Only 14% of the RODs analysed included references to CC, and in more than half of the cases it was a mere citation. Thermal power plants, which are subject to specific GHG regulations, show the highest consideration, while transport infrastructures, which are important contributors to CC, show a very low consideration. Almost all the references are related to their contribution to CC, while consideration of the effects of CC is minimal. The increasingly common incorporation of CC into SEA, should not imply its exclusion from EIA, because both processes have different aims and uses. Including the obligation to consider CC in the EIA regulations is highly desirable, but probably not enough without other measures, such as practical guidance, training and motivational programmes for practitioners and evaluators. But even these actions cannot ensure effective and adequate assessments of CC. Probably more resources should be spent on creating greater awareness in all the agents involved in EIA. - Highlights: • We analyse how the climate change is considered in EIA in Spain. • Few projects seriously assess climate change.

  2. Climate@Home: Crowdsourcing Climate Change Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, C.; Yang, C.; Li, J.; Sun, M.; Bambacus, M.

    2011-12-01

    Climate change deeply impacts human wellbeing. Significant amounts of resources have been invested in building super-computers that are capable of running advanced climate models, which help scientists understand climate change mechanisms, and predict its trend. Although climate change influences all human beings, the general public is largely excluded from the research. On the other hand, scientists are eagerly seeking communication mediums for effectively enlightening the public on climate change and its consequences. The Climate@Home project is devoted to connect the two ends with an innovative solution: crowdsourcing climate computing to the general public by harvesting volunteered computing resources from the participants. A distributed web-based computing platform will be built to support climate computing, and the general public can 'plug-in' their personal computers to participate in the research. People contribute the spare computing power of their computers to run a computer model, which is used by scientists to predict climate change. Traditionally, only super-computers could handle such a large computing processing load. By orchestrating massive amounts of personal computers to perform atomized data processing tasks, investments on new super-computers, energy consumed by super-computers, and carbon release from super-computers are reduced. Meanwhile, the platform forms a social network of climate researchers and the general public, which may be leveraged to raise climate awareness among the participants. A portal is to be built as the gateway to the climate@home project. Three types of roles and the corresponding functionalities are designed and supported. The end users include the citizen participants, climate scientists, and project managers. Citizen participants connect their computing resources to the platform by downloading and installing a computing engine on their personal computers. Computer climate models are defined at the server side. Climate

  3. Climate Literacy Ambassadors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ackerman, S. A.; Mooney, M. E.

    2011-12-01

    The Climate Literacy Ambassadors program is a collaborative effort to advance climate literacy led by the Cooperative Institute of Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS) at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. With support from NASA, CIMSS is coordinating a three-tiered program to train G6-12 teachers to be Ambassadors of Climate Literacy in their schools and communities. The complete training involves participation at a teacher workshop combined with web-based professional development content around Global and Regional Climate Change. The on-line course utilizes e-learning technology to clarify graphs and concepts from the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Summary for Policy Makers with content intricately linked to the Climate Literacy: The Essential Principles of Climate Science. Educators who take the course for credit can develop lesson plans or opt for a project of their choosing. This session will showcase select lesson plans and projects, ranging from a district-wide action plan that engaged dozens of teachers to Ambassadors volunteering at the Aldo Leopold Climate Change Nature Center to a teacher who tested a GLOBE Student Climate Research Campaign (SCRC) learning project with plans to participate in the SCRC program. Along with sharing successes from the CIMSS Climate Literacy Ambassadors project, we will share lessons learned related to the challenges of sustaining on-line virtual educator communities.

  4. Climate Sensitivity, Sea Level, and Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Russell, Gary; Kharecha, Pushker

    2013-01-01

    Cenozoic temperature, sea level and CO2 covariations provide insights into climate sensitivity to external forcings and sea-level sensitivity to climate change. Climate sensitivity depends on the initial climate state, but potentially can be accurately inferred from precise palaeoclimate data. Pleistocene climate oscillations yield a fast-feedback climate sensitivity of 3+/-1deg C for a 4 W/sq m CO2 forcing if Holocene warming relative to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is used as calibration, but the error (uncertainty) is substantial and partly subjective because of poorly defined LGM global temperature and possible human influences in the Holocene. Glacial-to-interglacial climate change leading to the prior (Eemian) interglacial is less ambiguous and implies a sensitivity in the upper part of the above range, i.e. 3-4deg C for a 4 W/sq m CO2 forcing. Slow feedbacks, especially change of ice sheet size and atmospheric CO2, amplify the total Earth system sensitivity by an amount that depends on the time scale considered. Ice sheet response time is poorly defined, but we show that the slow response and hysteresis in prevailing ice sheet models are exaggerated. We use a global model, simplified to essential processes, to investigate state dependence of climate sensitivity, finding an increased sensitivity towards warmer climates, as low cloud cover is diminished and increased water vapour elevates the tropopause. Burning all fossil fuels, we conclude, would make most of the planet uninhabitable by humans, thus calling into question strategies that emphasize adaptation to climate change.

  5. Climate Change and Future World

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-03-01

    fresh water. Movements of migrants from northern Africa and the Middle-East are already a security problem for Europe . This phenomenon is likely to be...Climate Change Science Program , Climate Literacy – The Essential Principles of Climate Sciences, 3. (http://library.globalchange.gov/climate...06/2013. 21 U.S. Climate Change Science Program , Climate Literacy – The Essential Principles of Climate Sciences, 3. (http

  6. Asking about climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jonas Østergaard; D'haen, Sarah Ann Lise

    2014-01-01

    There is increasing evidence that climate change will strongly affect people across the globe. Likely impacts of and adaptations to climate change are drawing the attention of researchers from many disciplines. In adaptation research focus is often on perceptions of climate change...... and on vulnerability and adaptation strategies in a particular region or community. But how do we research the ways in which people experience changing climatic conditions, the processes of decision-making, the actual adaptation strategies carried out and the consequences of these for actors living and dealing...... with climate change? On the basis of a literature review of all articles published in Global Environmental Change between 2000 and 2012 that deal with human dimensions of climate change using qualitative methods this paper provides some answers but also raises some concerns. The period and length of fieldwork...

  7. Climate strategy for Africa

    OpenAIRE

    Hernes, Helga; Dalfelt, Arne; Berntsen, Terje; Holtsmark, Bjart; Næss, Lars Otto; Selrod, Rolf; Aaheim, H. Asbjørn

    1995-01-01

    1. General observations Africa south of the Sahara is probably the most vulnerable region when it comes to the impact and consequences of climate changes. Yet the African continent runs a serious risk of being marginalized in the global dialogue on climate issues. Africa contributes little to the global emissions of CO2, and other greenhouse gases. The major focus of the Framework Convention on Climate Change is on abatement and mitigation of emissions rather than adaptation to the con...

  8. PALEOCLIMATE: Glacial Climate Instability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Labeyrie, L

    2000-12-08

    Throughout the last glacial period, rapid climatic changes called Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events occurred in the Northern Hemisphere. As Labeyrie discusses in his Perspective, these events are ideal targets for testing our understanding of climate change and developing climatic change models. Important steps toward understanding D-O events, particularly regarding the role of the low latitudes, are now reported by Hughen et al. and Peterson et al.

  9. Review of Climate Scenarios

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    Concept and application requirements of climate scenarios were introduced briefly,meanwhile,progresses on theoretical and applied aspects of climate scenarios creation techniques were discussed systematically.Two methods on predicted regional climate changing scenarios,elevating the spatial resolution output and downscaling method,could retrieve the insufficiencies respectively.And the statistical-dynamical downscaling method will be an important developing trend in the developing of downscaling techniques.

  10. The subtle role of climate change on population genetic structure in Canada lynx.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Row, Jeffrey R; Wilson, Paul J; Gomez, Celine; Koen, Erin L; Bowman, Jeff; Thornton, Daniel; Murray, Dennis L

    2014-07-01

    Anthropogenically driven climatic change is expected to reshape global patterns of species distribution and abundance. Given recent links between genetic variation and environmental patterns, climate change may similarly impact genetic population structure, but we lack information on the spatial and mechanistic underpinnings of genetic-climate associations. Here, we show that current genetic variability of Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis) is strongly correlated with a winter climate gradient (i.e. increasing snow depth and winter precipitation from west-to-east) across the Pacific-North American (PNO) to North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) climatic systems. This relationship was stronger than isolation by distance and not explained by landscape variables or changes in abundance. Thus, these patterns suggest that individuals restricted dispersal across the climate boundary, likely in the absence of changes in habitat quality. We propose habitat imprinting on snow conditions as one possible explanation for this unusual phenomenon. Coupling historical climate data with future projections, we also found increasingly diverging snow conditions between the two climate systems. Based on genetic simulations using projected climate data (2041-2070), we predicted that this divergence could lead to a threefold increase in genetic differentiation, potentially leading to isolated east-west populations of lynx in North America. Our results imply that subtle genetic structure can be governed by current climate and that substantive genetic differentiation and related ecological divergence may arise from changing climate patterns. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. Seasonal morphological and biochemical changes of Dahlgren cells implies a potential role of the caudal neurosecretory system (CNSS) in the reproduction cycle of teleostean fish.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Heng; Mu, Rui

    2008-03-01

    The purpose of this mini-review is to summarize recent research on the seasonal morphological and biochemical changes of Dahlgren cells in the caudal neurosecretory system (CNSS) of the freshwater teleosts carp Carassius auratus. The quantitative proof for these seasonal changes in the morphology and biochemistry of Dahlgren cells reflects the relationship between the CNSS and the reproduction cycle of fish and implies that the CNSS is probably involved in the reproduction process of fish.

  12. An Evaluation of the Implied Shortage Factor and Its Effect on the Air Force Logistics Command’s Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) Variable Safety Level.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Order Quantity (EOQ) model and a derivation of the Presutti and Trepp Model IV to establish inventory variable safety levels. The safety level (SL...implied shortage factor, lambda is an arbitrary value that has a major effect on the SL formula and inventory levels at each wholesale supply depot, the...Air Logistics Center. The objective of this thesis was to determine the effectiveness of the process by which lambda has been previously determined at

  13. Intergenerational Justice: How Reasonable Man Discounts Climate Damage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marc D. Davidson

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Moral philosophers and economists have evaluated the intergenerational problem of climate change by applying the whole gamut of theories on distributive justice. In this article, however, it is argued that intergenerational justice cannot imply the application of moral ideal theories to future generations. The formal principle of equality simply requires us to treat like cases as like. If intergenerational justice is to have any meaning, it would require future generations to receive the same treatment under the law and the same treatment from the authorities, as far as cases are like. In the context of climate change, the reasonable man standard from tort law is of particular relevance. There is no justification to handle pollution across generational boundaries according to norms which differ from the (international laws for handling pollution across national borders. It is argued that this implies, for example, that a zero social rate of time preference should be used in cost-benefit analysis of climate policy: climate damage experienced by future generations should be discounted neither for their higher expected wealth, nor purely for their being remote.

  14. Paleoclimate Implications for Human-Made Climate Change

    CERN Document Server

    Hansen, James E

    2011-01-01

    Milankovic climate oscillations help define climate sensitivity and assess potential human-made climate effects. We conclude that Earth in the warmest interglacial periods was less than 1{\\deg}C warmer than in the Holocene. Goals to limit human-made warming to 2{\\deg}C and CO2 to 450 ppm are not sufficient -- they are prescriptions for disaster. Polar warmth in prior interglacials and the Pliocene does not imply that a significant cushion remains between today's climate and dangerous warming, but rather that Earth today is poised to experience strong amplifying polar feedbacks in response to moderate additional warming. Deglaciation, disintegration of ice sheets, is nonlinear, spurred by amplifying feedbacks. If warming reaches a level that forces deglaciation, the rate of sea level rise will depend on the doubling time for ice sheet mass loss. Satellite gravity data, though too brief to be conclusive, are consistent with a doubling time of 10 years or less, implying the possibility of multi-meter sea level r...

  15. Future Climate Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    C. G. Cambell

    2004-09-03

    This report documents an analysis that was performed to estimate climatic variables for the next 10,000 years by forecasting the timing and nature of climate change at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, the site of a repository for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste. The future-climate estimates are based on an analysis of past-climate data from analog meteorological stations, and this report provides the rationale for the selection of these analog stations. The stations selected provide an upper and a lower climate bound for each future climate, and the data from those sites will provide input to the following reports: ''Simulation of Net Infiltration for Present-Day and Potential Future Climates'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170007]), ''Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) Model/Analysis for the License Application'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 168504]), ''Features, Events, and Processes in UZ Flow and Transport'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170012]), and ''Features, Events, and Processes in SZ Flow and Transport'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170013]). Forecasting long-term future climates, especially for the next 10,000 years, is highly speculative and rarely attempted. A very limited literature exists concerning the subject, largely from the British radioactive waste disposal effort. The discussion presented here is one available forecasting method for establishing upper and lower bounds for future climate estimates. The selection of different methods is directly dependent on the available evidence used to build a forecasting argument. The method used here involves selecting a particular past climate from many past climates, as an analog for future climate. While alternative analyses are possible for the case presented for Yucca Mountain, the evidence (data) used would be the same and the conclusions would not be expected to drastically change. Other studies might develop a different rationale or select other past

  16. Defending climate science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Showstack, Randy

    2012-01-01

    The National Center for Science Education (NCSE), which has long been in the lead in defending the teaching of evolution in public schools, has expanded its core mission to include defending climate science, the organization announced in January. “We consider climate change a critical issue in our own mission to protect the integrity of science education,” said NSCE executive director Eugenie Scott. “Climate affects everyone, and the decisions we make today will affect generations to come. We need to teach kids now about the realities of global warming and climate change so that they're prepared to make informed, intelligent decisions in the future.”

  17. Chatham Islands Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mullan, B.; Salinger, J.; Thompson, C.; Ramsay, D.; Wild, M.

    2005-06-15

    This brief report provides guidance on climate change specific to the Chatham Islands, to complement the information recently produced for local government by the Ministry for the Environment in 'Climate Change Effects and Impacts Assessment: A guidance manual for Local Government in New Zealand' and 'Coastal Hazards and Climate Change: A guidance manual for Local Government in New Zealand'. These previous reports contain a lot of generic information on climate change, and how to assess associated risks, that is relevant to the Chatham Islands Council.

  18. DORIOT CLIMATIC CHAMBERS

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — The Doriot Climatic Chambers reproduce environmental conditions occurring anywhere around the world. They provide an invaluable service by significantly reducing the...

  19. Climate and Ancient Societies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Climate, and human responses to it, have a strongly interconnected relationship. This when climate change occurs, the result of either natural or human causes, societies should react and adapt to these. But do they? If so, what is the nature of that change, and are the responses positive...... or negative for the long-term survival of social groups? In this volume, scholars from diverse disciplines including archaeology, geology and climate sciences explore scientific and material evidence for climate changes in the past, their causes, their effects on ancient societies and how those societies...

  20. Climate Change and Roads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chinowsky, P.; Arndt, Channing

    2012-01-01

    Decision-makers who are responsible for determining when and where infrastructure should be developed and/or enhanced are facing a new challenge with the emerging topic of climate change. The paper introduces a stressor–response methodology where engineering-based models are used as a basis...... four climate projection scenarios, the paper details how climate change response decisions may cost the Mozambican government in terms of maintenance costs and long-term roadstock inventory reduction. Through this approach the paper details how a 14% reduction in inventory loss can be achieved through...... the adoption of a proactive, design standard evolution approach to climate change....

  1. Climate change and responsibility to future generations: reflections on the normative questions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heeger, Robert

    2014-01-01

    This paper deals with the problem of moral responsibility in view of climate change. It assumes that we have a responsibility to future generations, and it inquires what this responsibility implies. The leading idea is that in order to determine what implications responsibility to future generations

  2. The 2015 Paris Climate Conference: A turning point in the world's energy history

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klimenko, V. V.; Mikushina, O. V.; Tereshin, A. G.

    2016-06-01

    It has been established that the consistent implementation of the 2015 Paris Climate Conference implies the quick retire of coal from the global energy balance and its replacement with the energy from unconventional and renewable sources. It is shown that even the full-scale implementation of the agreement will not keep global warming within 2°C.

  3. Near-linear cost increase to reduce climate-change risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schaeffer, M.; Kram, T.; Meinshausen, M.; Vuuren, van D.P.; Hare, W.L.

    2008-01-01

    One approach in climate-change policy is to set normative long-term targets first and then infer the implied emissions pathways. An important example of a normative target is to limit the global-mean temperature change to a certain maximum. In general, reported cost estimates for limiting global war

  4. Climate Action Tracker Update. Climate Shuffle

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoehne, N.; Fekete, H.; Vieweg, M.; Hare, B.; Schaeffer, M.; Rocha, M.; Larkin, J.; Guetschow, J.; Jeffery, L.

    2011-11-15

    The Climate Action Tracker (CAT) compares and assesses national and global action against a range of different climate targets across all relevant time frames, starting with an ongoing analysis of countries' current emission reduction pledges. National action on climate change mitigation appears to be joining the international climate negotiations in the new and ever popular 'climate shuffle' dance. It involves maximum effort and motion while staying in the same spot, or even, in some cases, going backwards. Recent emissions trends and estimates of the effects of those policies in place and proposed lead to a new estimate that warming is likely to approach 4C by 2100, significantly above the warming that would result from full implementation of the pledges (3.3C). The continuous global fossil-fuel intensive development of the past decade suggests that high warming levels of 4C are more plausible than assuming full implementation of current pledges. Evidence is ever increasing that existing and planned policies are not sufficient for countries to meet these pledges.

  5. How Can We Avert Dangerous Climate Change?

    CERN Document Server

    Hansen, J

    2007-01-01

    Recent analyses indicate that the amount of atmospheric CO2 required to cause dangerous climate change is at most 450 ppm, and likely less than that. Reductions of non-CO2 climate forcings can provide only moderate, albeit important, adjustments to the CO2 limit. Realization of how close the planet is to "tipping points" with unacceptable consequences, especially ice sheet disintegration with sea level rise out of humanity's control, has a bright side. It implies an imperative: we must find a way to keep the CO2 amount so low that it will also avert other detrimental effects that had begun to seem inevitable, e.g., ocean acidification, loss of most alpine glaciers and thus the water supply for millions of people, and shifting of climatic zones with consequent extermination of species. Here I outline from a scientific perspective actions needed to achieve low limits on CO2 and global warming. These changes are technically feasible and have ancillary benefits. Achievement of needed changes requires overcoming t...

  6. Climate change patterns in Amazonia and biodiversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Hai; Sinha, Ashish; Cruz, Francisco W; Wang, Xianfeng; Edwards, R Lawrence; d'Horta, Fernando M; Ribas, Camila C; Vuille, Mathias; Stott, Lowell D; Auler, Augusto S

    2013-01-01

    Precise characterization of hydroclimate variability in Amazonia on various timescales is critical to understanding the link between climate change and biodiversity. Here we present absolute-dated speleothem oxygen isotope records that characterize hydroclimate variation in western and eastern Amazonia over the past 250 and 20 ka, respectively. Although our records demonstrate the coherent millennial-scale precipitation variability across tropical-subtropical South America, the orbital-scale precipitation variability between western and eastern Amazonia exhibits a quasi-dipole pattern. During the last glacial period, our records imply a modest increase in precipitation amount in western Amazonia but a significant drying in eastern Amazonia, suggesting that higher biodiversity in western Amazonia, contrary to 'Refugia Hypothesis', is maintained under relatively stable climatic conditions. In contrast, the glacial-interglacial climatic perturbations might have been instances of loss rather than gain in biodiversity in eastern Amazonia, where forests may have been more susceptible to fragmentation in response to larger swings in hydroclimate.

  7. Terminality implies non-signalling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bob Coecke

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available A 'process theory' is any theory of systems and processes which admits sequential and parallel composition. `Terminality' unifies normalisation of pure states, trace-preservation of CP-maps, and adding up to identity of positive operators in quantum theory, and generalises this to arbitrary process theories. We show that terminality and non-signalling coincide in any process theory, provided one makes causal structure explicit. In fact, making causal structure explicit is necessary to even make sense of non-signalling in process theories. We conclude that because of its much simpler mathematical form, terminality should be taken to be a more fundamental notion than non-signalling.

  8. Feasible optimality implies Hack's Law

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rigon, Riccardo; Rodriguez-Iturbe, Ignacio; Rinaldo, Andrea

    1998-11-01

    We analyze the elongation (the scaling properties of drainage area with mainstream length) in optimal channel networks (OCNs) obtained through different algorithms searching for the minimum of a functional computing the total energy dissipation of the drainage system. The algorithms have different capabilities to overcome the imprinting of initial and boundary conditions, and thus they have different chances of attaining the global optimum. We find that suboptimal shapes, i.e., dynamically accessible states characterized by locally stationary total potential energy, show the robust type of elongation that is consistently observed in nature. This suggestive and directly measurable property is not found in the so-called ground state, i.e., the global minimum, whose features, including elongation, are known exactly. The global minimum is shown to be too regular and symmetric to be dynamically accessible in nature, owing to features and constraints of erosional processes. Thus Hack's law is seen as a signature of feasible optimality thus yielding further support to the suggestion that optimality of the system as a whole explains the dynamic origin of fractal forms in nature.

  9. Does classical liberalism imply democracy?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Ellerman

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available There is a fault line running through classical liberalism as to whether or not democratic self-governance is a necessary part of a liberal social order. The democratic and non-democratic strains of classical liberalism are both present today—particularly in the United States. Many contemporary libertarians and neo-Austrian economists represent the non-democratic strain in their promotion of non-democratic sovereign city-states (start-up cities or charter cities. We will take the late James M. Buchanan as a representative of the democratic strain of classical liberalism. Since the fundamental norm of classical liberalism is consent, we must start with the intellectual history of the voluntary slavery contract, the coverture marriage contract, and the voluntary non-democratic constitution (or pactum subjectionis. Next we recover the theory of inalienable rights that descends from the Reformation doctrine of the inalienability of conscience through the Enlightenment (e.g. Spinoza and Hutcheson in the abolitionist and democratic movements. Consent-based governments divide into those based on the subjects’ alienation of power to a sovereign and those based on the citizens’ delegation of power to representatives. Inalienable rights theory rules out that alienation in favor of delegation, so the citizens remain the ultimate principals and the form of government is democratic. Thus the argument concludes in agreement with Buchanan that the classical liberal endorsement of sovereign individuals acting in the marketplace generalizes to the joint action of individuals as the principals in their own organizations.

  10. Representability of Hom Implies Flatness

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Nitin Nitsure

    2004-02-01

    Let be a projective scheme over a noetherian base scheme , and let $\\mathcal{F}$ be a coherent sheaf on . For any coherent sheaf $\\mathcal{E}$ on , consider the set-valued contravariant functor $\\hom_{(\\mathcal{E},\\mathcal{F})}$ on -schemes, defined by $\\hom_{(\\mathcal{E},\\mathcal{F})}(T)=\\mathrm{Hom}(\\mathcal{E}_T,\\mathcal{F}_T)$ where $\\mathcal{E}_T$ and $\\mathcal{F}_T$ are the pull-backs of $\\mathcal{E}$ and $\\mathcal{F}$ to $X_T=X×_s T$. A basic result of Grothendieck ([EGA], III 7.7.9) says that if $\\mathcal{F}$ is flat over then $\\hom_{(\\mathcal{E},\\mathcal{F})}$ is representable for all $\\mathcal{E}$. We prove the converse of the above, in fact, we show that if is a relatively ample line bundle on over such that the functor $\\hom_{(L^{-n},\\mathcal{F})}$ is representable for infinitely many positive integers , then $\\mathcal{F}$ is flat over . As a corollary, taking $X=S$, it follows that if $\\mathcal{F}$ is a coherent sheaf on then the functor $T\\mapsto H^0(T,\\mathcal{F}_T)$ on the category of -schemes is representable if and only if $\\mathcal{F}$ is locally free on . This answers a question posed by Angelo Vistoli. The techniques we use involve the proof of flattening stratification, together with the methods used in proving the author's earlier result (see [N1]) that the automorphism group functor of a coherent sheaf on is representable if and only if the sheaf is locally free.

  11. Evaluating the effect of climate change on areal reduction factors using regional climate model projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jingwan; Sharma, Ashish; Johnson, Fiona; Evans, Jason

    2015-09-01

    Areal reduction factors (ARFs) are commonly used to transform point design rainfall to represent the average design rainfall for a catchment area. While there has been considerable attention paid in the research and engineering communities to the likely changes in rainfall intensity in future climates, the issue of changes to design areal rainfall has been largely ignored. This paper investigates the impact of climate change on ARFs. A new methodology for estimating changes in ARFs is presented. This method is used to assess changes in ARFs in the greater Sydney region using a high-resolution regional climate model (RCM). ARFs under present (1990-2009) and future (2040-2059) climate conditions were derived and compared for annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs) from 50% to 5% for durations ranging from 1 h to 120 h. The analysis shows two main trends in the future changes in ARFs. For the shortest duration events (1-h) the ARFs are found to increase which implies that these events will tend to have a larger spatial structure in the future than the current climate. In contrast, storms with durations between 6 and 72 h are likely to have decreased ARFs in the future, suggesting a more restricted spatial coverage of storms under a warming climate. The extent of the decrease varies with event frequency and catchment size. The largest decreases are found for large catchments and rare events. Although the results here are based on a single RCM and need to be confirmed in future work with multiple models, the framework that is proposed will be useful for future studies considering changes in the areal extent of rainfall extremes.

  12. Possible climate change evidence in ten Mexican watersheds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mateos, Efrain; Santana, Julio-Sergio; Montero-Martínez, Martin J.; Deeb, Alejandro; Grunwaldt, Alfred

    2016-02-01

    This paper suggests possible evidence of climate change in Mexico at the watershed level, based solely on historical data. The official Mexican climate dataset was used to find the best set of stations for each watershed. Maximum and minimum temperatures and rainfall in ten watersheds are analyzed from 1970 to 2009. Maximum temperature trends show a significant increment in most of these watersheds. Furthermore, Daily Temperature Range (DTR) exhibits a positive trend (increments), thus implying an increase in temperature extremes. This study also shows that the difference between maximum and minimum monthly temperature trends is negatively correlated with monthly precipitation trends. As a result, land-use and land-cover changes could be the main drivers of climate change in the region.

  13. Climate change and temperature-dependent sex determination in reptiles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janzen, F J

    1994-08-02

    Despite increasing concern over the possible impact of global temperature change, there is little empirical evidence of direct temperature effects on biotic interactions in natural systems. Clear assessment of the ecological and evolutionary impact of changing climatic temperature requires a natural system in which populations exhibit a direct unambiguous fitness response to thermal fluctuation. I monitored nests of a population of painted turtles (Chrysemys picta) with temperature-dependent sex determination to investigate the causal relationship between local climatic variation in temperature and offspring sex ratio. Consistent with theoretical predictions, annual offspring sex ratio was highly correlated with mean July air temperature, validating concerns about the effect of climate change on population demography. This correlation implies that even modest increases in mean temperature (evolve rapidly enough to counteract the negative fitness consequences of rapid global temperature change. Populations of species with temperature-dependent sex determination may serve as ideal indicators of the biological impact of global temperature change.

  14. Climate change, phenology, and butterfly host plant utilization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Navarro-Cano, Jose A; Karlsson, Bengt; Posledovich, Diana; Toftegaard, Tenna; Wiklund, Christer; Ehrlén, Johan; Gotthard, Karl

    2015-01-01

    Knowledge of how species interactions are influenced by climate warming is paramount to understand current biodiversity changes. We review phenological changes of Swedish butterflies during the latest decades and explore potential climate effects on butterfly-host plant interactions using the Orange tip butterfly Anthocharis cardamines and its host plants as a model system. This butterfly has advanced its appearance dates substantially, and its mean flight date shows a positive correlation with latitude. We show that there is a large latitudinal variation in host use and that butterfly populations select plant individuals based on their flowering phenology. We conclude that A. cardamines is a phenological specialist but a host species generalist. This implies that thermal plasticity for spring development influences host utilization of the butterfly through effects on the phenological matching with its host plants. However, the host utilization strategy of A. cardamines appears to render it resilient to relatively large variation in climate.

  15. Climate change and forest diseases

    Science.gov (United States)

    R.N. Sturrock; Susan Frankel; A. V. Brown; Paul Hennon; J. T. Kliejunas; K. J. Lewis; J. J. Worrall; A. J. Woods

    2011-01-01

    As climate changes, the effects of forest diseases on forest ecosystems will change. We review knowledge of relationships between climate variables and several forest diseases, as well as current evidence of how climate, host and pathogen interactions are responding or might respond to climate change. Many forests can be managed to both adapt to climate change and...

  16. Climate change refugia as a tool for climate adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change refugia, areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change so as to increase persistence of valued physical, ecological, and cultural resources, are considered as potential adaptation options in the face of anthropogenic climate change. In a collaboration ...

  17. Climate strength: a new direction for climate research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, Benjamin; Salvaggio, Amy Nicole; Subirats, Montse

    2002-04-01

    Climate strength was conceptualized within D. Chan's (1998) discussion of compositional models and the concept of culture strength from the organizational culture literature. Climate strength was operationalized in terms of within-group variability in climate perceptions-the less within-group variability, the stronger the climate. The authors studied climate strength in the context of research linking employee service climate perceptions to customer satisfaction. The hypothesis was tested that climate strength moderates the relationship between employee perceptions of service climate and customer satisfaction experiences. Partial support for the hypothesis was reported in both a concurrent and predictive (3-year) test across 118 branches of a bank. In the predictive study only the interaction of climate and climate strength predicted customer satisfaction. Implications for future research on climate and climate strength are discussed.

  18. Climate Change in New England | Energy and Global Climate ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-04-10

    EPA Region 1's Energy and Climate Unit and Oceans and Coastal Unit provide information and technical assistance on climate change impacts and adaptation, resilience and preparedness to climate disruptions

  19. Influence of soil and climate on root zone storage capacity

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Boer-Euser, Tanja; McMillan, Hilary; Hrachowitz, Markus; Winsemius, Hessel; Savenije, Hubert

    2016-04-01

    The catchment representative root zone storage capacity (Sr), i.e. the plant available soil water, is an important parameter of hydrological systems. It does not only influence the runoff from catchments, by controlling the partitioning of water fluxes but it also influences the local climate, by providing the source for transpiration. Sr is difficult to observe at catchment scale, due to heterogeneities in vegetation and soils. Sr estimates are traditionally derived from soil characteristics and estimates of root depths. In contrast, a recently suggested method allows the determination of Sr based on climate data, i.e. precipitation and evaporation, alone (Gao et al., 2014). By doing so, the time-variable size of Sr, is explicitly accounted for, which is not the case for traditional soil based methods. The time-variable size of Sr reflects root growth and thus the vegetation's adaption to medium-term fluctuations in the climate. Thus, we tested and compared Sr estimates from this 'climate based method' with estimates from soil data for 32 catchments in New Zealand. The results show a larger range in climate derived Sr than in soil derived Sr. Using a model experiment, we show that a model using the climate derived Sr is more accurately able to reproduce a set of hydrological regime signatures, in particular for humid catchments. For more arid catchments, the two methods provide similar model results. This implies that, although soil database information has some predictive power for model soil storage capacity, climate has a similar or greater control on Sr, as climate affects the evolving hydrological functioning of the root zone at the time scale of hydrological interest. In addition, Sr represents the plant available water and thus root surface, volume and density, and is therefore a more complete descriptor of vegetation influence on water fluxes than mere root depth. On balance, the results indicate that climate has a higher explanatory power than soils for

  20. Cosmogenic 10Be Age Constraints on the Holocene Deglaciation of the Scandinavian Ice Sheet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuzzone, J. K.; Clark, P. U.; Wohlfarth, B.; Lunkka, J.

    2011-12-01

    An important question in climate science is how ice sheets will respond to a climate warmer than present. Because our understanding of how these changes will occur remains limited, reconstructing the deglaciation of former ice sheets allows for a better understanding of how past ice sheets responded to a climate warmer than present along with understanding their contribution to sea-level rise. We will present new cosmogenic 10Be ages from erratic boulders along three transects spanning southern to northern Sweden and Finland that improve our understanding of the deglaciation of the Scandinavian Ice Sheet (SIS) beginning ~ 11.7ka through its final demise during the early Holocene. By constraining the Holocene deglaciation of the SIS and its associated retreat rates, we will establish the SIS contribution to Holocene sea level rise, improving our understanding of ice-sheet response to warming climates.

  1. Climate shocks and conflict

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Papaioannou, Kostadis J.

    2016-01-01

    This paper offers a historical micro-level analysis of the impact of climate shocks on the incidence of civil conflict in colonial Nigeria (1912-1945). Primary historical sources on court cases, prisoners and homicides are used to capture conflict. To measure climate shocks we use the deviation f

  2. Climatization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grant, Stephen; Tamason, Charlotte Crim; Jensen, Peter Kjær Mackie

    2015-01-01

    wasconducted in Bangladesh. The study found recent examples of climatization related to Cyclone Aila (2009) and saltwater intrusion in Bangladesh. In most cases these disasters were climatized in order tocreate a sense of urgency in order to push for an increase in financial aid to Bangladeshand to deflect...

  3. Olivine and climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schuiling, R.D.

    2012-01-01

    The greenhouse effect, thanks mainly to the water vapor in our atmosphere, has created a livable climate on Earth. Climate change, however, may potentially have dire consequences. It is generally assumed that the rise in CO2 levels in the atmosphere is the main culprit, although several other

  4. Olivine and climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schuiling, R.D.

    2012-01-01

    The greenhouse effect, thanks mainly to the water vapor in our atmosphere, has created a livable climate on Earth. Climate change, however, may potentially have dire consequences. It is generally assumed that the rise in CO2 levels in the atmosphere is the main culprit, although several other greenh

  5. Future climate. Engineering solutions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ferdinand, J.F.; Hagedorn-Rasmussen, P.; Fonnesbech, B.

    2009-09-15

    Future Climate Engineering Solutions - Joint Report is the common output and a documentation of more than 1 year's effort by 13 engineering associations - in 12 countries - to demonstrate how technologies can combat climate change. The report consists of three parts: Summaries of 10 national climate plans and technology prospects, 5 Key Common Findings, and a Climate Call from Engineers to create a new global climate treaty. The basic assumption of the project is recognition that GHG emissions, and their concentration in the atmosphere, must be reduced to a sustainable level. The project definition of a sustainable level is equivalent to the best-case stabilisation scenario which was presented in the 4th Assessment Report (AR4) by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), whereby the global mean temperature is most likely to stabilise at 2.0-2.4 deg. C. The Future Climate website www.futureclimate.info holds more information about the project, including possibility to download project material, including the full national climate plans.

  6. Climate variability and change

    CERN Document Server

    Grassl, H

    1998-01-01

    Many factors influence climate. The present knowledge concerning the climate relevance of earth orbital parameters, solar luminosity, volcanoes, internal interactions, and human activities will be reported as well as the vulnerability of emission scenarios for given stabilization goals for greenhouse gas concentrations and the main points of the Kyoto Protocol

  7. Climate Change Crunch Time

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xie Zhenhua

    2011-01-01

    CLIMATE change is a severe challenge facing humanity in the 21st century and thus the Chinese Government always attaches great importance to the problem.Actively dealing with climate change is China's important strategic policy in its social and economic development.China will make a positive contribution to the world in this regard.

  8. Climate Change Dossier

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Albers, R.A.W.

    2010-01-01

    Climate change is one of the great issues of our time. It is a complex, multi-facetted issue concerning flooding, energy efficiency, CO2 storage and sustainable energy, among others. TNO is actively involved in the issue, undertaking many studies relating to various aspects. The climate is changing;

  9. Climatic chamber ergometer

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Atkins, AR

    1968-01-01

    Full Text Available The design and calibration of an ergometer for exercising subjects during calorimetric studies in the climate chamber, are described. The ergometer is built into the climatic chamber and forms an integral part of the whole instrumentation system foe...

  10. Climate as an indicator

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wassink, J.

    2011-01-01

    They both have Delft roots, but their standpoints in the climate discussion are by no means similar: Professor Pier Vellinga worried publicly, whereas Professor Salle Kroonenberg qualified climate change. Strangely enough, they do agree on the solutions. “If you take a long, hard look,” Prof. Vellin

  11. Climate Change and Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-11-01

    expansion of large hydropower and reservoir construction can increase social resilience through associated economic development . However, the same...of the most vulnerable countries globally to the consequences of climate change, Vietnam is highly likely to experience a variety of negative...iii ABSTRACT Climate Change and Vietnam As one of the most vulnerable countries globally to the consequences

  12. Clashing Over the Climate

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HAIDER; RIZVI

    2010-01-01

    At the Copenhagen climate change summit,poor nations challenge Western domination Is the glass half empty or half full? As the year 2009 approached its end,the leaders of developing countries who attended the UN summit on climate left the Danish

  13. Future Climate Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    James Houseworth

    2001-10-12

    This Analysis/Model Report (AMR) documents an analysis that was performed to estimate climatic variables for the next 10,000 years by forecasting the timing and nature of climate change at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada (Figure 1), the site of a potential repository for high-level radioactive waste. The future-climate estimates are based on an analysis of past-climate data from analog meteorological stations, and this AMR provides the rationale for the selection of these analog stations. The stations selected provide an upper and a lower climate bound for each future climate, and the data from those sites will provide input to the infiltration model (USGS 2000) and for the total system performance assessment for the Site Recommendation (TSPA-SR) at YM. Forecasting long-term future climates, especially for the next 10,000 years, is highly speculative and rarely attempted. A very limited literature exists concerning the subject, largely from the British radioactive waste disposal effort. The discussion presented here is one method, among many, of establishing upper and lower bounds for future climate estimates. The method used here involves selecting a particular past climate from many past climates, as an analog for future climate. Other studies might develop a different rationale or select other past climates resulting in a different future climate analog. Revision 00 of this AMR was prepared in accordance with the ''Work Direction and Planning Document for Future Climate Analysis'' (Peterman 1999) under Interagency Agreement DE-AI08-97NV12033 with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). The planning document for the technical scope, content, and management of ICN 01 of this AMR is the ''Technical Work Plan for Unsaturated Zone (UZ) Flow and Transport Process Model Report'' (BSC 2001a). The scope for the TBV resolution actions in this ICN is described in the ''Technical Work Plan for: Integrated Management of Technical

  14. Cosmic rays and climate

    CERN Document Server

    CERN. Geneva

    2009-01-01

    The current understanding of climate change in the industrial age is that it is predominantly caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gases, with relatively small natural contributions due to solar irradiance and volcanoes. However, palaeoclimatic reconstructions show that the climate has frequently varied on 100-year time scales during the Holocene (last 10 kyr) by amounts comparable to the present warming - and yet the mechanism or mechanisms are not understood. Some of these reconstructions show clear associations with solar variability, which is recorded in the light radio-isotope archives that measure past variations of cosmic ray intensity. However, despite the increasing evidence of its importance, solar-climate variability is likely to remain controversial until a physical mechanism is established. Estimated changes of solar irradiance on these time scales appear to be too small to account for the climate observations. This raises the question of whether cosmic rays may directly affect the climate, provi...

  15. Climate, Anchovy, and Sardine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Checkley, David M.; Asch, Rebecca G.; Rykaczewski, Ryan R.

    2017-01-01

    Anchovy and sardine populated productive ocean regions over hundreds of thousands of years under a naturally varying climate, and are now subject to climate change of equal or greater magnitude occurring over decades to centuries. We hypothesize that anchovy and sardine populations are limited in size by the supply of nitrogen from outside their habitats originating from upwelling, mixing, and rivers. Projections of the responses of anchovy and sardine to climate change rely on a range of model types and consideration of the effects of climate on lower trophic levels, the effects of fishing on higher trophic levels, and the traits of these two types of fish. Distribution, phenology, nutrient supply, plankton composition and production, habitat compression, fishing, and acclimation and adaptation may be affected by ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation, and altered hydrology. Observations of populations and evaluation of model skill are essential to resolve the effects of climate change on these fish.

  16. Addressing Climate Crisis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    A series of extreme global weather events,like floods in Pakistan and droughts in Russia,should serve as a call to the world to take action against climate change.But worries have been mounting since global climate talks stalled,partly due to rifts between developed and developing countries.What efforts should be made to force progress in the negotiating process?What role has China played in combating climate change?Su Wei,China’s chief climate negotiator and Director-General of the Climate Change Department of the National Development and Reform Commission(NDRC),sat down with Beijing Review reporter Hu Yue to answer these questions and more.Edited excerpts follow

  17. Space for Climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pierre-Philippe Mathieu

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes how Earth Observation (EO data—in particular from satellites—can support climate science, monitoring, and services by delivering global, repetitive, consistent, and timely information on the state of the environment and its evolution. Some examples are presented of EO demonstration pilot projects performed in partnership with scientists, industry, and development practitioners to support climate science, adaptation, mitigation, and disaster risk management. In particular, the paper highlights the challenge of gathering observations and generating long-term climate data records, which provide the foundation of risk management. The paper calls for a science-based integrated approach to climate risk management supported by data and knowledge, providing decision-makers with a unique analytical lens to develop a safety net to risk and maximize opportunities related to climate change and variability.

  18. Communities under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nogues, David Bravo; Rahbek, Carsten

    2011-01-01

    The distribution of species on Earth and the interactions among them are tightly linked to historical and contemporary climate, so that global climate change will transform the world in which we live. Biological models can now credibly link recent decadal trends in field data to climate change......, but predicting future impacts on biological communities is a major challenge. Attempts to move beyond general macroecological predictions of climate change impact on one hand, and observations from specific, local-scale cases, small-scale experiments, or studies of a few species on the other, raise a plethora...... of unanswered questions. On page 1124 of this issue, Harley (1) reports results that cast new light on how biodiversity, across different trophic levels, responds to climate change....

  19. Climate Change: Good for Us?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oblak, Jackie

    2000-01-01

    Presents an activity with the objective of encouraging students to think about the effects of climate change. Explains background information on dependence to climate and discuses whether climate change is important. Provides information for the activity, extensions, and evaluation. (YDS)

  20. Does Climate Literacy Matter?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bedford, D. P.

    2014-12-01

    One obstacle to climate science education is the perception that climate literacy plays little or no role in the formation of opinions about the reality and seriousness of anthropogenic global warming (AGW), or that members of the non-specialist public already know enough climate science to hold an informed opinion. Why engage in climate science education if climate literacy does not matter? The idea that resistance to or dismissal of the findings and policy implications of climate science can be addressed simply by providing more and better information—the 'deficit model'—has been heavily critiqued in recent years. However, the pendulum is in danger of swinging too far in the opposite direction, with the view that information deficits either do not exist or are not relevant at all to attitude formation, and that cultural perspectives are sufficient by themselves to explain attitudes to AGW. This paper briefly reviews several recent publications that find a correlation between higher levels of climate literacy and greater acceptance of or concern about AGW, then presents results from a survey completed by 458 students at a primarily undergraduate institution in northern Utah in April-May 2013. These data indicate that attitudes to AGW are largely tribal, based on political outlook, Democrats being more concerned, Republicans less concerned. Overall levels of climate literacy demonstrated by respondents were low, but concern about AGW increased with higher levels of climate literacy among Republicans—though not among Democrats, for whom acceptance of AGW appears to be more an article of faith or badge of identity. Findings such as this suggest that, contrary to some recent critiques of the deficit model, information deficits do exist and do matter for opinion formation on AGW, although cultural factors are clearly also of great importance. Climate science education therefore can potentially help engage members of the public in issues related to AGW.

  1. Long-term sea-level rise implied by 1.5oC and 2oC warming levels

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schaeffer, M.; Hare, W.; Rahmstorf, S.; Vermeer, A.

    2012-01-01

    Sea-level rise (SLR) is a critical and uncertain climate change risk, involving timescales of centuries(1). Here we use a semi-empirical model, calibrated with sea-level data of the past millennium(2), to estimate the SLR implications of holding warming below 2 degrees C or 1.5 degrees C above pre-i

  2. The role of natural climatic variation in perturbing the observed global mean temperature trend

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hunt, B.G. [CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, VIC (Australia)

    2011-02-15

    Controversy continues to prevail concerning the reality of anthropogenically-induced climatic warming. One of the principal issues is the cause of the hiatus in the current global warming trend. There appears to be a widely held view that climatic change warming should exhibit an inexorable upwards trend, a view that implies there is no longer any input by climatic variability in the existing climatic system. The relative roles of climatic change and climatic variability are examined here using the same coupled global climatic model. For the former, the model is run using a specified CO{sub 2} growth scenario, while the latter consisted of a multi-millennial simulation where any climatic variability was attributable solely to internal processes within the climatic system. It is shown that internal climatic variability can produce global mean surface temperature anomalies of {+-}0.25 K and sustained positive and negative anomalies sufficient to account for the anomalous warming of the 1940s as well as the present hiatus in the observed global warming. The characteristics of the internally-induced negative temperature anomalies are such that if this internal natural variability is the cause of the observed hiatus, then a resumption of the observed global warming trend is to be expected within the next few years. (orig.)

  3. Climate determines upper, but not lower, altitudinal range limits of Pacific Northwest conifers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ettinger, A K; Ford, K R; HilleRisLambers, J

    2011-06-01

    Does climate determine species' ranges? Rapid rates of anthropogenic warming make this classic ecological question especially relevant. We ask whether climate controls range limits by quantifying relationships between climatic variables (precipitation, temperature) and tree growth across the altitudinal ranges of six Pacific Northwestern conifers on Mt. Rainier, Washington, USA. Results for three species (Abies amabilis, Callitropsis nootkatensis, Tsuga mertensiana) whose upper limits occur at treeline (> 1600 m) imply climatic controls on upper range limits, with low growth in cold and high snowpack years. Annual growth was synchronized among individuals at upper limits for these high-elevation species, further suggesting that stand-level effects such as climate constrain growth more strongly than local processes. By contrast, at lower limits climatic effects on growth were weak for these high-elevation species. Growth-climate relationships for three low-elevation species (Pseudotsuga menziesii, Thuja plicata, Tsuga heterophylla) were not consistent with expectations of climatic controls on upper limits, which are located within closed-canopy forest (climate controls altitudinal range limits at treeline, while local drivers (perhaps biotic interactions) influence growth in closed-canopy forests. Climate-change-induced range shifts in closed-canopy forests will therefore be difficult to predict accurately.

  4. [Evolution of the climate change concept and its impact in the public health of Peru].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sánchez Zavaleta, Carlos A

    2016-03-01

    The term "climate change" is not a new concept but its impact on public health is under constant review. We know that climate has already changed and will continue to change for centuries with the rise in average global temperature, and the associated rise in sea level. This fact makes mitigation efforts relevant only in the very long term and for generations of humans whose parents have not yet been born. When we talk about public health in the context of climate change, we are talking about adaptation. In the present, countries that are currently the most affected by climate change are precisely countries like Peru, without a significant carbon footprint at the global level but that are highly sensitive to the effects of climate. Without reliable climate projections, the health impact of climate change can be uncertain and complicated. Nevertheless, at the local level, every district can identify its vulnerabilities and define priorities to protect the health of its population. There are, and it can also be developed, environmental health indicators that can help monitor how well we are adapting and how prepared we are for changes in the climate. Adaptation to climate change implies improving living conditions, enhancing epidemiological surveillance systems and extending access to healthcare. The fight against the effects of climate change in public health is a fight against poverty and inequality, and that is nothing new in Peru.

  5. Modelling the Isotopic Response to Antarctic Ice Sheet Change During the Last Interglacial

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holloway, Max; Sime, Louise; Singarayer, Joy; Tindall, Julia; Valdes, Paul

    2015-04-01

    Ice sheet changes can exert major control over spatial water isotope variations in Antarctic surface snow. Consequently a significant mass loss or gain of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) would be expected to cause changes in the water isotope record across Antarctic ice core sites. Analysis of sea level indicators for the last interglacial (LIG), around 125 to 128 ka, suggest a global sea level peak 6 to 9 m higher than present. Recent NEEM Greenland ice core results imply that Greenland likely provided a modest ~2m contribution towards this global sea level rise. This implies that a WAIS contribution is necessary to explain the LIG sea level maxima. In addition, Antarctic ice core records suggest that Antarctic air temperatures during the LIG were up to 6°C warmer than present. Climate models have been unable to recreate such warmth when only orbital and greenhouse gas forcing are considered. Thus changes to the Antarctic ice sheet and ocean circulation may be required to reconcile model simulations with ice core data. Here we model the isotopic response to differing WAIS deglaciation scenarios, freshwater hosing, and sea ice configurations using a fully coupled General Circulation Model (GCM) to help interpret Antarctic ice core records over the LIG. This approach can help isolate the contribution of individual processes and feedbacks to final isotopic signals recorded in Antarctic ice cores.

  6. Contrasting Controversies: Fracking and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duggan-Haas, D.; Zabel, I. H. H.; Ross, R. M.

    2014-12-01

    Slickwater high-volume hydraulic fracturing (commonly known as "fracking") is highly controversial. So is global warming, and the two issues are closely related, but the natures of these two controversies have substantial and important differences. Building upon years of experience in teaching and developing resources and strategies for teaching about evolution and climate change, staff at the Paleontological Research Institution have engaged in public outreach and educator professional development to help nurture understanding of fracking and the broader energy system. How are these controversies similar to and different from one another, and how should understanding these similarities and differences inform educational programming (and about how you talk about these issues with your Uncle Fred at the family holiday dinner?). It is nearly universally agreed amongst scientists who study climate that changes now underway are real and human caused, and are posing or likely to pose very serious problems for humanity. Scientists who study slickwater high-volume hydraulic fracturing agree that it causes environmental damage, but there is no consensus as to whether fracking causes more or less harm (e.g., among different kinds of environment harm, across different temporal and spatial scales, and among different social contexts) than other ways of producing energy on a large scale. In other words, the basic tenets of climate change are not a matter of scientific controversy, though the implications for policy making obviously remain politically controversial, while fracking is an issue of both scientific and political controversy. Without advocating for or against fracking, we help audiences disentangle scientific and political issues, better understand the energy resources used in their own communities, and consider issues of scale, systems, and complexity. We will compare and contrast the overlapping controversies surrounding climate change and fracking and highlight

  7. Climate Change: Integrating Science and Economics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prinn, R. G.

    2008-12-01

    The world is facing an ever-growing conflict between environment and development. Climate change is a century-scale threat requiring a century-long effort in science, technology and policy analysis, and institutions that can sustain this effort over generations. To inform policy development and implementation there is urgent need for better integration of the diverse components of the problem. Motivated by this challenge, we have developed the Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) at MIT. It comprises coupled sub- models of economic development, atmospheric chemistry, climate dynamics and ecosystems. The results of a recent uncertainty analysis involving hundreds of runs of the IGSM imply that, without mitigation policies, the global average surface temperature may rise much faster than previously estimated. Polar temperatures are projected to rise even faster than the average rate with obvious great risks for high latitude ecosystems and ice sheets at the high end of this range. Analysis of policies for climate mitigation, show that the greatest effect of these policies is to lower the probability of extreme changes as opposed to lowering the medians. Faced with the above estimated impacts, the long lifetimes of most greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, the long delay in ultimate warming due to ocean heat uptake, and the capital-intensive global energy infrastructure, the case is strong for concerted action now. Results of runs of the IGSM indicate the need for transformation of the global energy industry on a very large scale to mitigate climate change. Carbon sequestration, renewable energy sources, and nuclear present new economic, technological, and environmental challenges when implemented at the needed scales. Economic analyses using the IGSM indicate that global implementation of efficient policies could allow the needed transformations at bearable costs.

  8. Climate and happiness

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rehdanz, Katrin [Centre for Marine and Climate Research, Hamburg University, Hamburg (Germany); Maddison, David [Department of Economics, University of Southern Denmark, Odense (Denmark)

    2005-01-05

    Climate is an important input to many human activities. Climate affects heating and cooling requirements, health, clothing and nutritional needs as well as recreational activities. As such, it is to be expected that individuals will have a preference for particular types of climate. This paper analyses a panel of 67 countries attempting to explain differences in self-reported levels of happiness by reference to, amongst other things, temperature and precipitation. Various indices are used for each of these variables, including means, extremes and the number of hot, cold, wet and dry months. Using a panel-corrected least squares approach, the paper demonstrates that, even when controlling for a range of other factors, climate variables have a highly significant effect on country-wide self-reported levels of happiness. On the basis of these results, it is determined that differential patterns of anthropogenically induced climate change might alter dramatically the distribution of happiness between nations, with some countries moving towards a preferred climate and others moving further away. We find that high-latitude countries included in our dataset might benefit from temperature changes. Countries already characterized by very high summer temperatures would most likely suffer losses from climate change.

  9. Effectively Rebutting Climate Misinformation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, J.

    2011-12-01

    Climate science faces one of the best funded misinformation campaigns in history. The challenge for climate communicators is that misinformation is extremely difficult to dislodge, even after people understand that it's incorrect. Understanding how the human brain processes information is crucial to successful rebuttal. To avoid the danger of reinforcing misinformation (known as the 'backfire effect'), emphasis should be on positive facts, not the myth. Another key to dislodging myths is replacing them with an alternate narrative. In order to provide a narrative about arguments that misrepresent climate science, a broader understanding of how these arguments mislead is required. Movements that deny a scientific consensus have 5 characteristics in common and these also apply to climate denial. The arguments against the scientific consensus involve conspiracy theories, fake experts, cherry picking, logical fallacies and misrepresentation or impossible expectations. Learning to identify these rhetorical techniques is an important tool in the climate communication toolbox. I discuss examples of misrepresentations of climate science and the rhetorical techniques employed. I demonstrate how to respond to these arguments by explaining the facts of climate science while in the process, providing an alternate narrative.

  10. Climate change governance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Knieling, Joerg [HafenCity Univ. Hamburg (Germany). Urban Planning and Regional Development; Leal Filho, Walter (eds.) [HAW Hamburg (Germany). Research and Transfer Centre Applications of Life Science

    2013-07-01

    Climate change is a cause for concern both globally and locally. In order for it to be tackled holistically, its governance is an important topic needing scientific and practical consideration. Climate change governance is an emerging area, and one which is closely related to state and public administrative systems and the behaviour of private actors, including the business sector, as well as the civil society and non-governmental organisations. Questions of climate change governance deal both with mitigation and adaptation whilst at the same time trying to devise effective ways of managing the consequences of these measures across the different sectors. Many books have been produced on general matters related to climate change, such as climate modelling, temperature variations, sea level rise, but, to date, very few publications have addressed the political, economic and social elements of climate change and their links with governance. This book will address this gap. Furthermore, a particular feature of this book is that it not only presents different perspectives on climate change governance, but it also introduces theoretical approaches and brings these together with practical examples which show how main principles may be implemented in practice.

  11. Elements of Climate Evolution in yhe Area Between Prut and Dniester Rivers. Landscape and Pedogenetic Implications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jigău Gheorghe

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Component part of the Carpathian-Danubian-Pontic space, the interfluve area between Prut and Dniester is subject to the regional process of climate evolution and change. In what regards the concept of human-influenced pedogenesis, the role of the biological factor is significantly reduced. As a consequence the direction and intensity of the elementary landscape and pedogenetic processes are determined by the relations between climate and the geomorphological factor. In the conditions of a relative stability of the geomorphological factor, the determining role is held by climate. To this is added soil vulnerability to the implications of climate changes, determined by the degree of soil physical degradation but also by a series of intrinsic and external (drainage factors. This implies the idea of the control and management of the landscape and pedogenetic implications of climate changes by improving soil physical characteristics.

  12. Climate forcings and feedbacks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, James

    1993-01-01

    Global temperature has increased significantly during the past century. Understanding the causes of observed global temperature change is impossible in the absence of adequate monitoring of changes in global climate forcings and radiative feedbacks. Climate forcings are changes imposed on the planet's energy balance, such as change of incoming sunlight or a human-induced change of surface properties due to deforestation. Radiative feedbacks are radiative changes induced by climate change, such as alteration of cloud properties or the extent of sea ice. Monitoring of global climate forcings and feedbacks, if sufficiently precise and long-term, can provide a very strong constraint on interpretation of observed temperature change. Such monitoring is essential to eliminate uncertainties about the relative importance of various climate change mechanisms including tropospheric sulfate aerosols from burning of coal and oil smoke from slash and burn agriculture, changes of solar irradiance changes of several greenhouse gases, and many other mechanisms. The considerable variability of observed temperature, together with evidence that a substantial portion of this variability is unforced indicates that observations of climate forcings and feedbacks must be continued for decades. Since the climate system responds to the time integral of the forcing, a further requirement is that the observations be carried out continuously. However, precise observations of forcings and feedbacks will also be able to provide valuable conclusions on shorter time scales. For example, knowledge of the climate forcing by increasing CFC's relative to the forcing by changing ozone is important to policymakers, as is information on the forcing by CO2 relative to the forcing by sulfate aerosols. It will also be possible to obtain valuable tests of climate models on short time scales, if there is precise monitoring of all forcings and feedbacks during and after events such as a large volcanic eruption

  13. Climate change and compensation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Karsten Klint; Flanagan, Tine Bech

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a case for compensation of actual harm from climate change in the poorest countries. First, it is shown that climate change threatens to reverse the fight to eradicate poverty. Secondly, it is shown how the problems raised in the literature for compensation to some extent...... climate change. The first argument appeals to the principle that if it is an injustice to cause risk of incurring harm in the future, then it is also an injustice to cause a similar harm now. The second argument appeals to the principle that if there is moral reason to reduce the risk of specific harms...

  14. Climate Museum and Garden

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregg, Jay; Bille, Dorthe

    2017-04-01

    The Climate Museum and Garden is conceived as a cross-disciplinary experience, where the arts and sciences link together to increase understanding of the Earth's climate and its relevance to our fate as a species. This would be a place of inspiration. The Climate Museum and Garden would merge concepts of modern art museums and modern science museums, with exhibitions, live music and theater performances, visitor interaction, unique discoveries and reflection. It would be a place where visitors are immersed in experiences, lingering indoors and out in quiet consideration and gratitude for our planet's atmosphere. The story of climate change is compelling in its own right; theories of the greenhouse effect go back over century and climate policy has stretched back a few decades. Whereas scientific researchers have been contributing to understanding the mechanisms and impacts of climate change for many decades; whereas researchers have participated in climate summits and informed policy makers; whereas researchers have taught classes of gifted students; in all of this, the public has mostly missed out. This public relations gap has been unfortunately filled by those that would seek to politicize and mislead the public, leading to an engagement gap among the general public. Now we stand on a precipice. Therefore we see a ripe opportunity to reach out and inspire the population. We build off of current pedagogic research that shows that experienced-based learning is more impactful when it engages the senses and elicits an emotional response. People understand what they experience, what they feel, and this serves as the basis for personal reflection. In this sense the visitor experience is generative, in that it promotes further personal investigation and interaction. The Climate Museum and Garden would be a start. In the future, we envisage a future network of climate museums in all major cities. It would be a flagship attraction for any city, along with their art

  15. Asking about climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jonas Østergaard; D'haen, Sarah Ann Lise

    2014-01-01

    and on vulnerability and adaptation strategies in a particular region or community. But how do we research the ways in which people experience changing climatic conditions, the processes of decision-making, the actual adaptation strategies carried out and the consequences of these for actors living and dealing...... with climate change? On the basis of a literature review of all articles published in Global Environmental Change between 2000 and 2012 that deal with human dimensions of climate change using qualitative methods this paper provides some answers but also raises some concerns. The period and length of fieldwork...

  16. Climate Benchmark Missions: CLARREO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wielicki, Bruce A.; Young, David F.

    2010-01-01

    CLARREO (Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory) is one of the four Tier 1 missions recommended by the recent NRC decadal survey report on Earth Science and Applications from Space (NRC, 2007). The CLARREO mission addresses the need to rigorously observe climate change on decade time scales and to use decadal change observations as the most critical method to determine the accuracy of climate change projections such as those used in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4). A rigorously known accuracy of both decadal change observations as well as climate projections is critical in order to enable sound policy decisions. The CLARREO mission accomplishes this critical objective through highly accurate and SI traceable decadal change observations sensitive to many of the key uncertainties in climate radiative forcings, responses, and feedbacks that in turn drive uncertainty in current climate model projections. The same uncertainties also lead to uncertainty in attribution of climate change to anthropogenic forcing. The CLARREO breakthrough in decadal climate change observations is to achieve the required levels of accuracy and traceability to SI standards for a set of observations sensitive to a wide range of key decadal change variables. These accuracy levels are determined both by the projected decadal changes as well as by the background natural variability that such signals must be detected against. The accuracy for decadal change traceability to SI standards includes uncertainties of calibration, sampling, and analysis methods. Unlike most other missions, all of the CLARREO requirements are judged not by instantaneous accuracy, but instead by accuracy in large time/space scale average decadal changes. Given the focus on decadal climate change, the NRC Decadal Survey concluded that the single most critical issue for decadal change observations was their lack of accuracy and low confidence in

  17. The last interglacial climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Rasmus A.; Langen, Peter L.; Vinther, Bo M.

    2016-01-01

    The last interglacial climate was influenced by substantial changes in the annual insolation cycle that led to a warmer climate state with pronounced high northern latitude warming. We analyze the impact of the insolation changes 125,000 years before present using an equilibrium snapshot simulation...... with the EC-Earth coupled climate model at high spatial resolution. Using additional atmosphere-only simulations, we separate the direct impact from the changed insolation from the secondary contribution from changed sea surface conditions. These simulations are forced with a combination of last interglacial...

  18. Climate change and cities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Satterthwaite, David

    2006-10-15

    What is done, or not done, in cities in relation to climate change over the next 5-10 years will affect hundreds of millions of people, because their lives and livelihoods are at risk from global warming. What is done in cities will also have a major influence on whether the escalating risks for the whole planet will be reduced or eliminated. Climate change needs to be considered in all development plans and investments - local, regional, national and international. Urban growth must be made more climate-resilient and help reduce, rather than increase, greenhouse gas emissions. This will not be done by the market; it can only be done by governments.

  19. A TMS study on the contribution of visual area V5 to the perception of implied motion in art and its appreciation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cattaneo, Zaira; Schiavi, Susanna; Silvanto, Juha; Nadal, Marcos

    2017-01-01

    Over the last decade, researchers have sought to understand the brain mechanisms involved in the appreciation of art. Previous studies reported an increased activity in sensory processing regions for artworks that participants find more appealing. Here we investigated the intriguing possibility that activity in cortical area V5-a region in the occipital cortex mediating physical and implied motion detection-is related not only to the generation of a sense of motion from visual cues used in artworks, but also to the appreciation of those artworks. Art-naïve participants viewed a series of paintings and quickly judged whether or not the paintings conveyed a sense of motion, and whether or not they liked them. Triple-pulse TMS applied over V5 while viewing the paintings significantly decreased the perceived sense of motion, and also significantly reduced liking of abstract (but not representational) paintings. Our data demonstrate that V5 is involved in extracting motion information even when the objects whose motion is implied are pictorial representations (as opposed to photographs or film frames), and even in the absence of any figurative content. Moreover, our study suggests that, in the case of untrained people, V5 activity plays a causal role in the appreciation of abstract but not of representational art.

  20. Climate engineering research : A precautionary response to climate change?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reynolds, J.L.; Fleurke, F.M.

    2013-01-01

    In the face of dire forecasts for anthropogenic climate change, climate engineering is increasingly discussed as a possible additional set of responses to reduce climate change’s threat. These proposals have been controversial, in part because they – like climate change itself – pose uncertain risks

  1. Climate engineering research : A precautionary response to climate change?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reynolds, J.L.; Fleurke, F.M.

    2013-01-01

    In the face of dire forecasts for anthropogenic climate change, climate engineering is increasingly discussed as a possible additional set of responses to reduce climate change’s threat. These proposals have been controversial, in part because they – like climate change itself – pose uncertain risks

  2. Climatic water deficit, tree species ranges, and climate change in Yosemite National Park

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lutz, James A.; Van Wagtendonk, Jan W.; Franklin, Jerry F.

    2010-01-01

    composition may accelerate in the future, with species responding individualistically to further declines in water availability. Declining water availability may disproportionately affect Pinus monticola and Tsuga mertensiana. Fine-scale heterogeneity in soil water-holding capacity, aspect and slope implies that plant water balance may vary considerably within the grid cells of kilometre-scale climate models. Sub-grid-cell soil and topographical data can partially compensate for the lack of spatial heterogeneity in gridded climate data, potentially improving vegetation-change projections in mountainous landscapes with heterogeneous topography.

  3. Climatic controls and climate proxy potential of Lewis Glacier, Mt Kenya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prinz, Rainer; Nicholson, Lindsey; Gurgiser, Wolfgang; Mölg, Thomas; Kaser, Georg

    2016-04-01

    Glaciers in the tropics can provide information about regional climate, its dynamics, and its evolution over decadal and centennial time scales, if their interaction with the atmosphere is understood, and their changes are documented or reconstructed. The glaciers on Mount Kenya capture a climate signal from the mid troposphere at about 5 km a.s.l., where our knowledge of climate change is scarce and controversial. We use in-situ meteorological and glaciological observations to optimize and validate a physically-based, process-orientated energy and mass balance model to quantify the exchange processes between the glacier surface and the atmosphere above and to explore the sensitivity of energy and mass exchanges to changing climatic conditions. Currently the glacier loses mass due to the imbalance between insufficient accumulation and enhanced melt, because radiative energy gains cannot be compensated by turbulent energy sinks. Exchanging model input data with synthetic climate scenarios, which were sampled from the meteorological measurements and account for coupled climatic variable perturbations, reveal that the current mass balance is most sensitive to changes in atmospheric moisture (via its impact on solid precipitation, cloudiness and surface albedo). Scenarios with lower air temperatures are drier and associated with lower accumulation and increased net radiation due to reduced cloudiness and albedo. Hence, similar to the glaciers of nearby Kilimanjaro, the recession of Lewis Glacier is not because of increased air temperatures, but because of decreased atmospheric moisture. If the climate scenarios currently producing positive mass balances are applied to Lewis Glacier's late 19th century maximum extent (L19), negative mass balances are the result, meaning that the conditions required sustaining the glacier in its L19 extent are not reflected in today's climate observations. Alternatively, a balanced mass budget for the L19 extent can be explained by

  4. Climate Informatics: Accelerating Discovering in Climate Science with Machine Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monteleoni, Claire; Schmidt, Gavin A.; McQuade, Scott

    2014-01-01

    The goal of climate informatics, an emerging discipline, is to inspire collaboration between climate scientists and data scientists, in order to develop tools to analyze complex and ever-growing amounts of observed and simulated climate data, and thereby bridge the gap between data and understanding. Here, recent climate informatics work is presented, along with details of some of the field's remaining challenges. Given the impact of climate change, understanding the climate system is an international priority. The goal of climate informatics is to inspire collaboration between climate scientists and data scientists, in order to develop tools to analyze complex and ever-growing amounts of observed and simulated climate data, and thereby bridge the gap between data and understanding. Here, recent climate informatics work is presented, along with details of some of the remaining challenges.

  5. Objective prior distribution of climate sensitivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pueyo, S.

    2012-04-01

    The problems posed by the choice of prior distribution constitute one of the most fundamental obstacles to assign probabilities to the possible values of climate sensitivity S. The prior is the probability distribution that we assume before introducing data. In the literature about climate sensitivity, the most frequently used prior is the uniform. On first inspection, this distribution would seem to represent absence of information, but, as is well known, this assumption leads to paradoxes. This observation has led to the widespread belief that priors are inherently subjective and should be decided by expert elicitation, even though this amounts to questioning the objective value of scientific results. In general, the climate science community is unaware of the "objective Bayesian" literature, which seeks objective criteria to determine non-informative prior distributions (or reference priors). In a recent paper (Pueyo 2011) I applied an objective Bayesian approach to climate sensitivity. I described three lines of evidence indicating that the distribution that really represents absence of information about S is log-uniform, i.e. it consists of a uniform distribution of log(S) instead of S: • In the case of S, only the log-uniform distribution satisfies Jaynes' invariant groups criterion, i.e. this distribution does not change when modifying assumptions that are not explicitly included in the enunciate of the problem (I only included the definition of S). • In terms of information theory, information about S can be identified with mutual information between changes in radiative forcing and in temperature. Absence of mutual information between these variables implies a log-uniform distribution of S. • The frequency distribution of sets of parameters formally comparable to climate sensitivity is approximately log-uniform for a broad range of values. A log-uniform distribution of S is intermediate between a uniform distribution of S and a uniform distribution

  6. Climate change and compensation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Karsten Klint; Flanagan, Tine Bech

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a case for compensation of actual harm from climate change in the poorest countries. First, it is shown that climate change threatens to reverse the fight to eradicate poverty. Secondly, it is shown how the problems raised in the literature for compensation to some extent...... are based on misconceptions and do not apply to compensation of present actual harm. Finally, two arguments are presented to the effect that, in so far as developed countries accept a major commitment to mitigate climate change, they should also accept a commitment to address or compensate actual harm from...... climate change. The first argument appeals to the principle that if it is an injustice to cause risk of incurring harm in the future, then it is also an injustice to cause a similar harm now. The second argument appeals to the principle that if there is moral reason to reduce the risk of specific harms...

  7. Pathfinder Climate Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA/NASA Pathfinder climate data CD-ROM contains seven data sets: Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR)Land and Ocean, TIROS Operational Vertical...

  8. Modelling Interglacial Climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Rasmus Anker

    Past warm climate states could potentially provide information on future global warming. The past warming was driven by changed insolation rather than an increased greenhouse effect, and thus the warm climate states are expected to be different. Nonetheless, the response of the climate system...... the impact of a changing sea ice cover. The first part focusses on the last interglacial climate (125,000 years before present) which was characterized by substantial warming at high northern latitudes due to an increased insolation during summer. The simulations reveal that the oceanic changes dominate...... the response at high northern latitudes, while the direct insolation impact is more dominant in the tropics. On Greenland, the simulated warming is low compared to the ice core reconstructions. Surface mass balance calculations indicate that the oceanic conditions favor increased accumulation in the southeast...

  9. Climate Record Books

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Climate Record Books contain daily, monthly, seasonal, and annual averages, extremes, or occurrences. Most data are sequential by period of record 1871-1910,...

  10. Adapting to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Strzepek, Kenneth; Tarp, Finn

    2011-01-01

    Mozambique, like many African countries, is already highly susceptible to climate variability and extreme weather events. Climate change threatens to heighten this vulnerability. In order to evaluate potential impacts and adaptation options for Mozambique, we develop an integrated modeling...... framework that translates atmospheric changes from general circulation model projections into biophysical outcomes via detailed hydrologic, crop, hydropower and infrastructure models. These sector models simulate a historical baseline and four extreme climate change scenarios. Sector results are then passed...... down to a dynamic computable general equilibrium model, which is used to estimate economy-wide impacts on national welfare, as well as the total cost of damages caused by climate change. Potential damages without changes in policy are significant; our discounted estimates range from US2.3 to US2.3toUS7...

  11. Climate Action Benefits: Electricity

    Science.gov (United States)

    This page provides background on the relationship between electricity and climate change and describes what the CIRA Electricity analyses cover. It provides links to the subsectors Electricity Demand and Electricity Supply.

  12. Fisheries and climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brander, Keith

    2009-01-01

    Fish stocks and the fisheries based on them have always experienced variability due to climate. Changes in temperature, salinity, winds, ocean currents, oxygen, and other factors affect their distribution, growth, survival, and recruitment. Examples of such effects are given for several regions...... of the oceans and the processes are described. Poleward distribution shifts have occurred since the 1960s and can be attributed to the effects of anthropogenic climate change with a high degree of confidence. In addition to climate effects, fisheries are subjected to other anthropogenic stresses, including high...... fishing mortality, loss of habitat, pollution, and introduction of alien species. These interact and may reduce the resilience of exploited stocks, although climate change may also increase productivity in some cases. Fisheries production depends on primary production, but to date we have low confidence...

  13. Climate adaptation futures

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Palutikof, J. P

    2013-01-01

    Adaptation is the poor cousin of the climate change challenge - the glamour of international debate is around global mitigation agreements, while the bottom-up activities of adaptation, carried out...

  14. Climate Forcing Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Records of changes in solar irradiance, volcanic aerosols, atmospheric trace gases, and other properties thought to influence climate in the past. Parameter keywords...

  15. Population and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Brian C.; Landis MacKellar, F.; Lutz, Wolfgang

    2000-11-01

    Population and Climate Change provides the first systematic in-depth treatment of links between two major themes of the 21st century: population growth (and associated demographic trends such as aging) and climate change. It is written by a multidisciplinary team of authors from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis who integrate both natural science and social science perspectives in a way that is comprehensible to members of both communities. The book will be of primary interest to researchers in the fields of climate change, demography, and economics. It will also be useful to policy-makers and NGOs dealing with issues of population dynamics and climate change, and to teachers and students in courses such as environmental studies, demography, climatology, economics, earth systems science, and international relations.

  16. Climate Change Adaptation Training

    Science.gov (United States)

    A list of on-line training modules to help local government officials and those interested in water management issues better understand how the changing climate affects the services and resources they care about

  17. Space for Climate

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Pierre-Philippe Mathieu

    2015-01-01

    ..., and disaster risk management. In particular, the paper highlights the challenge of gathering observations and generating long-term climate data records, which provide the foundation of risk management...

  18. CITYZEN climate impact studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schutz, Martin (ed.)

    2011-07-01

    We have estimated the impact of climate change on the chemical composition of the troposphere due to changes in climate from current climate (2000-2010) looking 40 years ahead (2040-2050). The climate projection has been made by the ECHAM5 model and was followed by chemistry-transport modelling using a global model, Oslo CTM2 (Isaksen et al., 2005; Srvde et al., 2008), and a regional model, EMEP. In this report we focus on carbon monoxide (CO) and surface ozone (O3) which are measures of primary and secondary air pollution. In parallel we have estimated the change in the same air pollutants resulting from changes in emissions over the same time period. (orig.)

  19. Fisheries and climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brander, Keith

    2009-01-01

    Fish stocks and the fisheries based on them have always experienced variability due to climate. Changes in temperature, salinity, winds, ocean currents, oxygen, and other factors affect their distribution, growth, survival, and recruitment. Examples of such effects are given for several regions...... of the oceans and the processes are described. Poleward distribution shifts have occurred since the 1960s and can be attributed to the effects of anthropogenic climate change with a high degree of confidence. In addition to climate effects, fisheries are subjected to other anthropogenic stresses, including high...... fishing mortality, loss of habitat, pollution, and introduction of alien species. These interact and may reduce the resilience of exploited stocks, although climate change may also increase productivity in some cases. Fisheries production depends on primary production, but to date we have low confidence...

  20. Climate Summit in Copenhagen

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Delman, Jørgen

      Together with the United States, China has moved to centre stage in the running up to the Climate Summit in Copenhagen 7-18 December 2009. To make the Summit a success, the two countries have started signalling positive commitment to formulation of quantitative targets and engage constructively...... in elaborating a reasonably ambitious, yet realistic framework for the implementation of a new global post-Kyoto regime that will have to take effect from 2012. China's leadership has already acknowledged that climate change may exacerbate an exceedingly unsustainable development path over the next decades...... if action is not taken to change its course dramatically. The challenges are formidable, yet the window of opportunity to take action is quite narrow. For these reasons and due to international pressure, China's position on climate change has been made gradually clearer as the climate negotiations have...

  1. Architecture, energy and climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lauring, Michael

    2010-01-01

    Architecture has always had to relate to climatic conditions while providing shelter from the sun, the rain, the winds or the cold. This is a main purpose of buildings: To establish an indoor climate different from the outdoor. In the Nordic countries fuels for heating buildings has been a vital...... necessity almost as basic as food and water, and lack of wood has caused illness and migration - scarcity of energy is not a new topic either [Kjærgaard]. The new aspects are that human civilization is in danger of causing severe global climate changes, secondly that we can foresee using up the global non......-renewable reserves of oil, gas and uranium, both aspects capable of pulling the carpet under human civilization itself as we know it. The huge energy consumption especially in the northern hemisphere is closely linked to industrialization, and the response from those aware of energy and climate problems has in some...

  2. Global Climate Summaries

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Hourly Summaries are simple indicators of observational normals which include climatic data summarizations and frequency distributions. These typically...

  3. Greenland climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Swingedouw, D.; Landais, A.

    2012-01-01

    Climate archives available from deep-sea and marine shelf sediments, glaciers, lakes and ice cores in and around Greenland allow us to place the current trends in regional climate, ice sheet dynamics, and land surface changes in a broader perspective. We show that during the last decade (2000s...... regional climate and ice sheet dynamics. The magnitude and rate of future changes in Greenland temperature, in response to increasing greenhouse gas emissions, may be faster than any past abrupt events occurring under interglacial conditions. Projections indicate that within one century Greenland may......), atmospheric and sea-surface temperatures are reaching levels last encountered millennia ago when northern high latitude summer insolation was higher due to a different orbital configuration. Concurrently, records from lake sediments in southern Greenland document major environmental and climatic conditions...

  4. Topologies of climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blok, Anders

    2010-01-01

    Climate change is quickly becoming a ubiquitous socionatural reality, mediating extremes of sociospatial scale from the bodily to the planetary. Although environmentalism invites us to ‘think globally and act locally', the meaning of these scalar designations remains ambiguous. This paper explores...... the topological presuppositions of social theory in the context of global climate change, asking how carbon emissions ‘translate' into various sociomaterial forms. Staging a meeting between Tim Ingold's phenomenology of globes and spheres and the social topologies of actor-network theory (ANT), the paper advances...... a ‘relational-scalar' analytics of spatial practices, technoscience, and power. As technoscience gradually constructs a networked global climate, this ‘grey box' comes to circulate within fluid social spaces, taking on new shades as it hybridizes knowledges, symbols, and practices. Global climates thus come...

  5. Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hudecz, Adriána

    -operation and research into the common problems of the Northern Periphery. This report is an output of the ROADEX “Implementing Accessibility” project (2009-2012). It gives a summary of the results of research into adaptation measures to combat climate change effects on low volume roads in the Northern Periphery....... The research was carried out between January 2000 and March 2012. One of the biggest challenges that mankind has to face is the prospect of climate change resulting from emissions of greenhouse gases. These gases trap energy in the atmosphere and cause global surface temperatures to rise. This warming in turn...... causes changes in other climatic variables such as rainfall, humidity and wind speed that impact on the functioning of infrastructure such road networks. This paper discusses the climate changes predicted by the world’s meteorological organisations and considers how these may impact on the public...

  6. Climate Change Impacts on Crop Production in Nigeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mereu, V.; Gallo, A.; Carboni, G.; Spano, D.

    2011-12-01

    The agricultural sector in Nigeria is particularly important for the country's food security, natural resources, and growth agenda. The cultivable areas comprise more than 70% of the total area; however, the cultivated area is about the 35% of the total area. The most important components in the food basket of the nation are cereals and tubers, which include rice, maize, corn, millet, sorghum, yam, and cassava. These crops represent about 80% of the total agricultural product in Nigeria (from NPAFS). The major crops grown in the country can be divided into food crops (produced for consumption) and export products. Despite the importance of the export crops, the primary policy of agriculture is to make Nigeria self-sufficient in its food and fiber requirements. The projected impacts of future climate change on agriculture and water resources are expected to be adverse and extensive in these area. This implies the need for actions and measures to adapt to climate change impacts, and especially as they affect agriculture, the primary sector for Nigerian economy. In the framework of the Project Climate Risk Analysis in Nigeria (founded by World Bank Contract n.7157826), a study was made to assess the potential impact of climate change on the main crops that characterize Nigerian agriculture. The DSSAT-CSM (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer - Cropping System Model) software, version 4.5 was used for the analysis. Crop simulation models included in DSSAT are tools that simulate physiological processes of crop growth, development and production by combining genetic crop characteristics and environmental (soil and weather) conditions. For each selected crop, the models were calibrated to evaluate climate change impacts on crop production. The climate data used for the analysis are derived by the Regional Circulation Model COSMO-CLM, from 1971 to 2065, at 8 km of spatial resolution. The RCM model output was "perturbed" with 10 Global Climate Models to have

  7. The Portuguese Climate Portal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomes, Sandra; Deus, Ricardo; Nogueira, Miguel; Viterbo, Pedro; Miranda, Miguel; Antunes, Sílvia; Silva, Alvaro; Miranda, Pedro

    2016-04-01

    The Portuguese Local Warming Website (http://portaldoclima.pt) has been developed in order to support the society in Portugal in preparing for the adaptation to the ongoing and future effects of climate change. The climate portal provides systematic and easy access to authoritative scientific data ready to be used by a vast and diverse user community from different public and private sectors, key players and decision makers, but also to high school students, contributing to the increase in knowledge and awareness on climate change topics. A comprehensive set of regional climate variables and indicators are computed, explained and graphically presented. Variables and indicators were built in agreement with identified needs after consultation of the relevant social partners from different sectors, including agriculture, water resources, health, environment and energy and also in direct cooperation with the Portuguese National Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation (ENAAC) group. The visual interface allows the user to dynamically interact, explore, quickly analyze and compare, but also to download and import the data and graphics. The climate variables and indicators are computed from state-of-the-art regional climate model (RCM) simulations (e.g., CORDEX project), at high space-temporal detail, allowing to push the limits of the projections down to local administrative regions (NUTS3) and monthly or seasonal periods, promoting local adaptation strategies. The portal provides both historical data (observed and modelled for the 1971-2000 period) and future climate projections for different scenarios (modelled for the 2011-2100 period). A large effort was undertaken in order to quantify the impacts of the risk of extreme events, such as heavy rain and flooding, droughts, heat and cold waves, and fires. Furthermore the different climate scenarios and the ensemble of RCM models, with high temporal (daily) and spatial (~11km) detail, is taken advantage in order to

  8. The development of climates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kandel, R. (Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), 75 - Paris (FR))

    1990-02-01

    After a description of atmospheric meteorological phenomenas in connection with oceans and continental surfaces or ice caps, climates and weather forecast modelisations are explained. Concentration balances of carbon dioxide, ozone, freon, methane... coming from human activities or from nature itself are made. The green house effect is discussed with some models. Analysis instruments for past and present climates are listed. Political aspects of climatology are presented. 15 refs.

  9. Station Climatic Summaries, Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    1989-07-01

    OCDS) ................................................... 077 BIRJAND 408090 8612 (OCDS) ............................................. ( 381 BUSHEHR...ALL HOURS # 2 1 0 1 0 # 0 # 1 # 1 1 CACECR-IB 080 OPERATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA SUMM ARY STATION: BIRJAND , IRAN STATION #: 408090 ICAO ID...082. L@ OPERATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA SIJ44ARY STATION: BIRJAND , IRAN STATION #: 408090 ICAO ID: OIMB LOCATION: 32054’N, 59016’E ELEVATION (FEET): 4823 LST

  10. Indoor Climate Quality Assessment -

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ansaldi, Roberta; Asadi, Ehsan; Costa, José Joaquim

    This Guidebook gives building professionals useful support in the practical measurements and monitoring of the indoor climate in buildings. It is evident that energy consumption in a building is directly influenced by required and maintained indoor comfort level. Wireless technologies for measure...... for measurement and monitoring have allowed a significantly increased number of possible applications, especially in existing buildings. The Guidebook illustrates several cases with the instrumentation of the monitoring and assessment of indoor climate....

  11. Northwest Regional Climate Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lipschultz, Fred

    2011-01-01

    Objectives are to establish a continuing, inclusive National process that: 1) synthesizes relevant science and information 2) increases understanding of what is known & not known 3) identifies information needs related to preparing for climate variability and change, and reducing climate impacts and vulnerability 4) evaluates progress of adaptation & mitigation activities 5) informs science priorities 6) builds assessment capacity in regions and sectors 7) builds understanding & skilled use of findings

  12. Climate change and skin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balato, N; Ayala, F; Megna, M; Balato, A; Patruno, C

    2013-02-01

    Global climate appears to be changing at an unprecedented rate. Climate change can be caused by several factors that include variations in solar radiation received by earth, oceanic processes (such as oceanic circulation), plate tectonics, and volcanic eruptions, as well as human-induced alterations of the natural world. Many human activities, such as the use of fossil fuel and the consequent accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, land consumption, deforestation, industrial processes, as well as some agriculture practices are contributing to global climate change. Indeed, many authors have reported on the current trend towards global warming (average surface temperature has augmented by 0.6 °C over the past 100 years), decreased precipitation, atmospheric humidity changes, and global rise in extreme climatic events. The magnitude and cause of these changes and their impact on human activity have become important matters of debate worldwide, representing climate change as one of the greatest challenges of the modern age. Although many articles have been written based on observations and various predictive models of how climate change could affect social, economic and health systems, only few studies exist about the effects of this change on skin physiology and diseases. However, the skin is the most exposed organ to environment; therefore, cutaneous diseases are inclined to have a high sensitivity to climate. For example, global warming, deforestation and changes in precipitation have been linked to variations in the geographical distribution of vectors of some infectious diseases (leishmaniasis, lyme disease, etc) by changing their spread, whereas warm and humid environment can also encourage the colonization of the skin by bacteria and fungi. The present review focuses on the wide and complex relationship between climate change and dermatology, showing the numerous factors that are contributing to modify the incidence and the clinical pattern of many

  13. Cuba confronts climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alonso, Gisela; Clark, Ismael

    2015-04-01

    Among environmental problems, climate change presents the greatest challenges to developing countries, especially island nations. Changes in climate and the resulting effects on human health call for examination of the interactions between environmental and social factors. Important in Cuba's case are soil conditions, food availability, disease burden, ecological changes, extreme weather events, water quality and rising sea levels, all in conjunction with a range of social, cultural, economic and demographic conditions.

  14. Climate and architecture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tind Kristensen, Eva; Friis Møller, Winnie; Rotne, Georg

    2010-01-01

    Climate and Architecture analyserer klimaets rolle i arkitekturen. Intentionen med bogen er at pege på nogle af de mange muligheder for bygningers klimaregulering, som et mere detaljeret studie af de lokale klimatiske forhold og den stedlige byggeskik tilbyder.......Climate and Architecture analyserer klimaets rolle i arkitekturen. Intentionen med bogen er at pege på nogle af de mange muligheder for bygningers klimaregulering, som et mere detaljeret studie af de lokale klimatiske forhold og den stedlige byggeskik tilbyder....

  15. The remote impacts of climate feedbacks on regional climate predictability

    OpenAIRE

    Roe, Gerard H.; Feldl, Nicole; Armour, Kyle C.; Hwang, Yen-Ting; Frierson, Dargan M. W.

    2015-01-01

    Uncertainty in the spatial pattern of climate change is dominated by divergent predictions among climate models. Model differences are closely linked to their representation of climate feedbacks, that is, the additional radiative fluxes that are caused by changes in clouds, water vapour, surface albedo, and other factors, in response to an external climate forcing. Progress in constraining this uncertainty is therefore predicated on understanding how patterns of individual climate feedbacks a...

  16. The politics of climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tirkkonen, J. [Tampere Univ. (Finland). Dept. of Regional Studies; Wilenius, M. [Helsinki Univ. (Finland). Inst. for Cooperative Studies

    1996-12-31

    One of the aims of SILMU, the Finnish Research Programme for Climate Change, was to produce information for decision-makers concerning climate change and its mitigation. One integrative project for this purpose was PAATE, an inquiry into the present state and future possibilities of interaction between researchers and decision-makers. The aims of the PAATE project can be summarised as follows: (1) to conduct a survey of the state of climate change research and climate policy in Finland, (2) to develop the interaction between climate research, policy makers and different societal organisations, (3) to acquire methodological experiences on the realisation of projects of this type, (4) to provide material for the final report of the SILMU project and for further action, and (5) to promote the rational development of climate policy. Methodologically, the PAATE project used the Delphi technique employed chiefly in futurological research. A method based on expert knowledge, the Delphi technique assesses the possibilities and conditions of future development through e.g. panel discussions between experts. Also the experiences of the similar project conducted in Netherlands were utilised

  17. Arts and Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cegnar, T.

    2010-09-01

    Arts and climate science have more in common points than it appears at first glance. Artistic works can help us to directly or indirectly learn about climatic conditions and weather events in the past, but are also very efficient in raising awareness about climate change nowadays. Long scientific articles get very little response among general public, because most people don't want to read long articles. There is a need to communicate climate change issues more powerfully and more directly, with simple words, pictures, sculptures, installations. Artistic works can inspire people to take concrete action. A number of communication media can fit this purpose. Artists can speak to people on an emotional and intellectual level; they can help people to see things from another perspective and in new ways. Artists can motivate change; they have the freedom to weave facts, opinions, thoughts, emotion and colour all together. Paintings are witnesses of the past climatic conditions. We can learn from paintings, architectural constructions and sculptures about the vegetation, weather events, animals, and way of living. Mentioning only some few examples: old paintings in caves, also Flemish painters are often shown for their winter landscapes, and paintings are very useful to illustrate how fast glaciers are melting. At the end, we shall not forget that dilapidation of art masterpieces often depends on climatic conditions.

  18. Sonification of Climate Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogt, Katharina; Visda, Goudarzi

    2013-04-01

    Sonification is the acoustic analogue of data visualization and takes advantage of human perceptual and cognitive capabilities. The amount of data being processed today is steadily increasing, and both scientists and society need new ways to understand scientific data and their implications. Sonification is especially suited to the preliminary exploration of complex, dynamic, and multidimensional data sets, as can be found in climate science. In the research project SysSon (https://sysson.kug.ac.at/), we apply a systematic approach to design sonifications to climate data. In collaboration with the Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change (http://www.wegcenter.at/) we assessed the metaphors climate scientists use and their typical workflows, and chose data sets where sonification has high potential revealing new phenomena. This background will be used to develop an audio interface which is directly linked to the visualization interfaces for data analysis the scientists use today. The protoype will be evaluated according to its functionality, intuitivity for climate scientists, and aesthetic criteria. In the current stage of the project, conceptual links between climate science and sound have been elaborated and first sonification designs have been developed. The research is mainly carried out at the Institute of Electronic Music and Acoustics (http://iem.kug.ac.at/), which has extensive experience in interactive sonification with multidimensional data sets.

  19. Organizational climate and culture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, Benjamin; Ehrhart, Mark G; Macey, William H

    2013-01-01

    Organizational climate and organizational culture theory and research are reviewed. The article is first framed with definitions of the constructs, and preliminary thoughts on their interrelationships are noted. Organizational climate is briefly defined as the meanings people attach to interrelated bundles of experiences they have at work. Organizational culture is briefly defined as the basic assumptions about the world and the values that guide life in organizations. A brief history of climate research is presented, followed by the major accomplishments in research on the topic with regard to levels issues, the foci of climate research, and studies of climate strength. A brief overview of the more recent study of organizational culture is then introduced, followed by samples of important thinking and research on the roles of leadership and national culture in understanding organizational culture and performance and culture as a moderator variable in research in organizational behavior. The final section of the article proposes an integration of climate and culture thinking and research and concludes with practical implications for the management of effective contemporary organizations. Throughout, recommendations are made for additional thinking and research.

  20. On High-Frequency Topography-Implied Gravity Signals for a Height System Unification Using GOCE-Based Global Geopotential Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grombein, Thomas; Seitz, Kurt; Heck, Bernhard

    2017-03-01

    National height reference systems have conventionally been linked to the local mean sea level, observed at individual tide gauges. Due to variations in the sea surface topography, the reference levels of these systems are inconsistent, causing height datum offsets of up to ±1-2 m. For the unification of height systems, a satellite-based method is presented that utilizes global geopotential models (GGMs) derived from ESA's satellite mission Gravity field and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer (GOCE). In this context, height datum offsets are estimated within a least squares adjustment by comparing the GGM information with measured GNSS/leveling data. While the GNSS/leveling data comprises the full spectral information, GOCE GGMs are restricted to long wavelengths according to the maximum degree of their spherical harmonic representation. To provide accurate height datum offsets, it is indispensable to account for the remaining signal above this maximum degree, known as the omission error of the GGM. Therefore, a combination of the GOCE information with the high-resolution Earth Gravitational Model 2008 (EGM2008) is performed. The main contribution of this paper is to analyze the benefit, when high-frequency topography-implied gravity signals are additionally used to reduce the remaining omission error of EGM2008. In terms of a spectral extension, a new method is proposed that does not rely on an assumed spectral consistency of topographic heights and implied gravity as is the case for the residual terrain modeling (RTM) technique. In the first step of this new approach, gravity forward modeling based on tesseroid mass bodies is performed according to the Rock-Water-Ice (RWI) approach. In a second step, the resulting full spectral RWI-based topographic potential values are reduced by the effect of the topographic gravity field model RWI_TOPO_2015, thus, removing the long to medium wavelengths. By using the latest GOCE GGMs, the impact of topography-implied

  1. Economic Growth Assumptions in Climate and Energy Policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nir Y. Krakauer

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The assumption that the economic growth seen in recent decades will continue has dominated the discussion of future greenhouse gas emissions and the mitigation of and adaptation to climate change. Given that long-term economic growth is uncertain, the impacts of a wide range of growth trajectories should be considered. In particular, slower economic growth would imply that future generations will be relatively less able to invest in emissions controls or adapt to the detrimental impacts of climate change. Taking into consideration the possibility of economic slowdown therefore heightens the urgency of reducing greenhouse gas emissions now by moving to renewable energy sources, even if this incurs short-term economic cost. I quantify this counterintuitive impact of economic growth assumptions on present-day policy decisions in a simple global economy-climate model (Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (DICE. In DICE, slow future growth increases the economically optimal present-day carbon tax rate and the utility of taxing carbon emissions, although the magnitude of the increase is sensitive to model parameters, including the rate of social time preference and the elasticity of the marginal utility of consumption. Future scenario development should specifically include low-growth scenarios, and the possibility of low-growth economic trajectories should be taken into account in climate policy analyses.

  2. On The Reproducibility of Seasonal Land-surface Climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Phillips, T J

    2004-10-22

    The sensitivity of the continental seasonal climate to initial conditions is estimated from an ensemble of decadal simulations of an atmospheric general circulation model with the same specifications of radiative forcings and monthly ocean boundary conditions, but with different initial states of atmosphere and land. As measures of the ''reproducibility'' of continental climate for different initial conditions, spatio-temporal correlations are computed across paired realizations of eleven model land-surface variables in which the seasonal cycle is either included or excluded--the former case being pertinent to climate simulation, and the latter to seasonal anomaly prediction. It is found that the land-surface variables which include the seasonal cycle are impacted only marginally by changes in initial conditions; moreover, their seasonal climatologies exhibit high spatial reproducibility. In contrast, the reproducibility of a seasonal land-surface anomaly is generally low, although it is substantially higher in the Tropics; its spatial reproducibility also markedly fluctuates in tandem with warm and cold phases of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation. However, the overall degree of reproducibility depends strongly on the particular land-surface anomaly considered. It is also shown that the predictability of a land-surface anomaly implied by its reproducibility statistics is consistent with what is inferred from more conventional predictability metrics. Implications of these results for climate model intercomparison projects and for operational forecasts of seasonal continental climate also are elaborated.

  3. Do regional climate models represent regional climate?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maraun, Douglas; Widmann, Martin

    2014-05-01

    When using climate change scenarios - either from global climate models or further downscaled - to assess localised real world impacts, one has to ensure that the local simulation indeed correctly represents the real world local climate. Representativeness has so far mainly been discussed as a scale issue: simulated meteorological variables in general represent grid box averages, whereas real weather is often expressed by means of point values. As a result, in particular simulated extreme values are not directly comparable with observed local extreme values. Here we argue that the issue of representativeness is more general. To illustrate this point, assume the following situations: first, the (GCM or RCM) simulated large scale weather, e.g., the mid-latitude storm track, might be systematically distorted compared to observed weather. If such a distortion at the synoptic scale is strong, the simulated local climate might be completely different from the observed. Second, the orography even of high resolution RCMs is only a coarse model of true orography. In particular in mountain ranges the simulated mesoscale flow might therefore considerably deviate from the observed flow, leading to systematically displaced local weather. In both cases, the simulated local climate does not represent observed local climate. Thus, representativeness also encompasses representing a particular location. We propose to measure this aspect of representativeness for RCMs driven with perfect boundary conditions as the correlation between observations and simulations at the inter-annual scale. In doing so, random variability generated by the RCMs is largely averaged out. As an example, we assess how well KNMIs RACMO2 RCM at 25km horizontal resolution represents winter precipitation in the gridded E-OBS data set over the European domain. At a chosen grid box, RCM precipitation might not be representative of observed precipitation, in particular in the rain shadow of major moutain ranges

  4. Assessment of climate change impact on phenology dynamic in Vojvodina region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lalic, B.; Mihailovic, D. T.

    2009-09-01

    Global climate change is a continuous process that needs to be taken seriously, even though there are large uncertainties in its spatial and temporal distribution. One important bio tracer of climate change presence and magnitude is plant phenology dynamic. However, response of different plant communities to changing climate will vary across the regions and ecosystems but it will never fail. Therefore, on regional or farm level, observed phenology dynamic can be exploited as a measure of climate change impact, or expected climate change can be used in order to assess possible changes in plant growth dynamic. Nevertheless, phenology doesn't provide only date of flowering or emergence but also implies timing of farm operations as well as pest and disease dynamic. As an element of climate change impact study for Northern Serbia region in the framework of ADAGIO project, trend of plant phenology dynamic has been calculated. Climate data series of further climate were obtained using HadCM3, ECHAM5 and NCAR-PCM climate models. Statistical downscaling to smaller temporal scale was provided using Met&Roll weather generator. Time of phenological stages appearance was calculated for wheat and selected fruit varieties.

  5. Patterns in household-level engagement with climate change in Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bohensky, Erin L.; Smajgl, Alex; Brewer, Tom

    2013-04-01

    Understanding how individuals engage with climate change is critical for developing successful climate adaptation policies. Indonesia ranks among the world's top CO2 emitters, affirming its relevance to the global climate change policy arena, yet the dynamics of climate change engagement in Indonesia may differ from developed countries from which much research on this issue derives. We surveyed 6,310 households in two Indonesian regions to investigate patterns in four steps of engagement: observation, risk perception, reactive action (in response to present climate change) and proactive action (in anticipation of future climate change). We show that 89.5% of households exhibited a pattern whereby taking each of these steps in sequence implied taking all steps that precede it. Exceptions occurred in urban areas, where households were more likely to take action without having observed climate change or perceiving risks. In rural areas, households were more likely to observe climate change without taking action. These variations suggest a potentially nonlinear relationship between steps of engagement. We distinguish three types of household requiring adaptation support, and stress that Indonesian climate policy should shift emphasis from raising awareness to identifying broader institutional structures and processes to facilitate household engagement.

  6. Conceptualizing Climate Change in the Context of a Climate System: Implications for Climate and Environmental Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepardson, Daniel P.; Niyogi, Dev; Roychoudhury, Anita; Hirsch, Andrew

    2012-01-01

    Today there is much interest in teaching secondary students about climate change. Much of this effort has focused directly on students' understanding of climate change. We hypothesize, however, that in order for students to understand climate change they must first understand climate as a system and how changes to this system due to both natural…

  7. Testing anthropic selection: a climate change example.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waltham, Dave

    2011-03-01

    Planetary anthropic selection, the idea that Earth has unusual properties since, otherwise, we would not be here to observe it, is a controversial idea. This paper proposes a methodology by which to test anthropic proposals by comparison of Earth to synthetic populations of Earth-like planets. The paper illustrates this approach by investigating possible anthropic selection for high (or low) rates of Milankovitch-driven climate change. Three separate tests are investigated: (1) Earth-Moon properties and their effect on obliquity; (2) Individual planet locations and their effect on eccentricity variation; (3) The overall structure of the Solar System and its effect on eccentricity variation. In all three cases, the actual Earth/Solar System has unusually low Milankovitch frequencies compared to similar alternative systems. All three results are statistically significant at the 5% or better level, and the probability of all three occurring by chance is less than 10(-5). It therefore appears that there has been anthropic selection for slow Milankovitch cycles. This implies possible selection for a stable climate, which, if true, undermines the Gaia hypothesis and also suggests that planets with Earth-like levels of biodiversity are likely to be very rare.

  8. Climate services within a regional climate adaptation project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hänsel, Stephanie; Heidenreich, Majana; Franke, Johannes; Riedel, Kathrin; Matschullat, Jörg; Bernhofer, Christian

    2013-04-01

    In recent years the demand for adapting to climate variability and change became more and more obvious. Thus a multitude of projects dealing with climate adaptation strategies and concrete measures was launched. Commonly, developing adaptation options is based on downscaled climate model outputs. These outputs have to be provided within the projects, but just providing the data is far from being sufficient. Obstacles connected with using climate projections for climate adaptation include uncertainties and bandwidths of climate projections and the inability of models to describe parameters such as extreme weather events, which are particularly relevant for many climate adaptation decisions. Climate scientists know that model outputs are no climate data and cannot be treated as observational data were treated in the past. Still, many practitioners demand precise values for future climate to replace past CLINO-values and to run their applications. Thus, climate adaptation involves adapting the instruments and processes used in deriving climate-related decisions. Communicating the challenges arising from this need in rethinking common procedures is of outstanding significance for any successful adaptation practice. Dealing with uncertainties of climate projections is a constant necessity, since they are always based on several simplifications, parameterisations and assumptions, e.g., on the future socioeconomic development or on climate sensitivity. Future climate should thus be communicated in bandwidths. Working with just one scenario, one climate model, or even working with ensemble means is risky as it evokes a higher than appropriate perceived confidence in the results. It encourages using familiar tools in processing climate information, rather than caution. Consequences are suboptimal adaption and misallocation of finances. We encourage working with bandwidths and testing climate adaptation options against a broad range of possible future climates. Climate

  9. A common-sense climate index: is climate changing noticeably?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, J.; Sato, M.; Glascoe, J.; Ruedy, R.

    1998-01-01

    We propose an index of climate change based on practical climate indicators such as heating degree days and the frequency of intense precipitation. We find that in most regions the index is positive, the sense predicted to accompany global warming. In a few regions, especially in Asia and western North America, the index indicates that climate change should be apparent already, but in most places climate trends are too small to stand out above year-to-year variability. The climate index is strongly correlated with global surface temperature, which has increased as rapidly as projected by climate models in the 1980s. We argue that the global area with obvious climate change will increase notably in the next few years. But we show that the growth rate of greenhouse gas climate forcing has declined in recent years, and thus there is an opportunity to keep climate change in the 21st century less than "business-as-usual" scenarios.

  10. Assessing the role of energy in development and climate policies in large developing countries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garg, A.; Halsnaes, K. [UNEP Risoe Centre (Denmark)

    2007-05-15

    The paper discusses a number of key conceptual issues related to the role of energy in development and its potential synergies and tradeoffs with climate change. The relationship between economic development and energy over time is discussed and illustrated by data from Brazil, China, India and South Africa. It is concluded that energy plays an important role as a productivity enhancing factor in economic development and in human well being and several policy goals related to sustainable development (SD), energy and climate can be integrated. However, meeting all these policy goals requires a special effort and can imply costs. An analytical approach that can be used to assess development, energy and climate policies is introduced and empirical indicators of Sustainable development trends for the period 2000-2030 are presented. In a pragmatic way, it is proposed to use indicators of economic, social, and environmental SD dimensions such as costs, employment generation, energy access, local and global emissions, income distribution, and local participation in the evaluation of specific policies. The approach is developed and tested as part of the Development, Energy, and Climate project which is international project cooperation between the UNEP Risoe Centre and teams in Brazil, China, India and South Africa. The results demonstrate that there is a huge potential for energy efficiency improvements in the energy systems in these countries and thereby cost savings and reduced emissions intensity. However, the implied greenhouse gas emissions depend on fuel and technology compositions and reduction will imply that specific policies are put in place. (au)

  11. Historical and idealized climate model experiments: an EMIC intercomparison

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Eby

    2012-08-01

    the specified forcing, there is a tendency for the EMICs to underestimate the drop in surface air temperature and CO2 between the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age estimated from paleoclimate reconstructions. This in turn could be a result of errors in the reconstructions of volcanic and/or solar radiative forcing used to drive the models or the incomplete representation of certain processes or variability within the models. Given the datasets used in this study, the models calculate significant land-use emissions over the pre-industrial. This implies that land-use emissions might need to be taken into account, when making estimates of climate-carbon feedbacks from paleoclimate reconstructions.

  12. On the hydrologic adjustment of climate-model projections: The potential pitfall of potential evapotranspiration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milly, P.C.D.; Dunne, K.A.

    2011-01-01

    Hydrologic models often are applied to adjust projections of hydroclimatic change that come from climate models. Such adjustment includes climate-bias correction, spatial refinement ("downscaling"), and consideration of the roles of hydrologic processes that were neglected in the climate model. Described herein is a quantitative analysis of the effects of hydrologic adjustment on the projections of runoff change associated with projected twenty-first-century climate change. In a case study including three climate models and 10 river basins in the contiguous United States, the authors find that relative (i.e., fractional or percentage) runoff change computed with hydrologic adjustment more often than not was less positive (or, equivalently, more negative) than what was projected by the climate models. The dominant contributor to this decrease in runoff was a ubiquitous change in runoff (median 211%) caused by the hydrologic model's apparent amplification of the climate-model-implied growth in potential evapotranspiration. Analysis suggests that the hydrologic model, on the basis of the empirical, temperature-based modified Jensen-Haise formula, calculates a change in potential evapotranspiration that is typically 3 times the change implied by the climate models, which explicitly track surface energy budgets. In comparison with the amplification of potential evapotranspiration, central tendencies of other contributions from hydrologic adjustment (spatial refinement, climate-bias adjustment, and process refinement) were relatively small. The authors' findings highlight the need for caution when projecting changes in potential evapotranspiration for use in hydrologic models or drought indices to evaluate climatechange impacts on water. Copyright ?? 2011, Paper 15-001; 35,952 words, 3 Figures, 0 Animations, 1 Tables.

  13. Adaptations to climate in candidate genes for common metabolic disorders.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angela M Hancock

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available Evolutionary pressures due to variation in climate play an important role in shaping phenotypic variation among and within species and have been shown to influence variation in phenotypes such as body shape and size among humans. Genes involved in energy metabolism are likely to be central to heat and cold tolerance. To test the hypothesis that climate shaped variation in metabolism genes in humans, we used a bioinformatics approach based on network theory to select 82 candidate genes for common metabolic disorders. We genotyped 873 tag SNPs in these genes in 54 worldwide populations (including the 52 in the Human Genome Diversity Project panel and found correlations with climate variables using rank correlation analysis and a newly developed method termed Bayesian geographic analysis. In addition, we genotyped 210 carefully matched control SNPs to provide an empirical null distribution for spatial patterns of allele frequency due to population history alone. For nearly all climate variables, we found an excess of genic SNPs in the tail of the distributions of the test statistics compared to the control SNPs, implying that metabolic genes as a group show signals of spatially varying selection. Among our strongest signals were several SNPs (e.g., LEPR R109K, FABP2 A54T that had previously been associated with phenotypes directly related to cold tolerance. Since variation in climate may be correlated with other aspects of environmental variation, it is possible that some of the signals that we detected reflect selective pressures other than climate. Nevertheless, our results are consistent with the idea that climate has been an important selective pressure acting on candidate genes for common metabolic disorders.

  14. Hospitable archean climates simulated by a general circulation model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolf, E T; Toon, O B

    2013-07-01

    Evidence from ancient sediments indicates that liquid water and primitive life were present during the Archean despite the faint young Sun. To date, studies of Archean climate typically utilize simplified one-dimensional models that ignore clouds and ice. Here, we use an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a mixed-layer ocean model to simulate the climate circa 2.8 billion years ago when the Sun was 20% dimmer than it is today. Surface properties are assumed to be equal to those of the present day, while ocean heat transport varies as a function of sea ice extent. Present climate is duplicated with 0.06 bar of CO2 or alternatively with 0.02 bar of CO2 and 0.001 bar of CH4. Hot Archean climates, as implied by some isotopic reconstructions of ancient marine cherts, are unattainable even in our warmest simulation having 0.2 bar of CO2 and 0.001 bar of CH4. However, cooler climates with significant polar ice, but still dominated by open ocean, can be maintained with modest greenhouse gas amounts, posing no contradiction with CO2 constraints deduced from paleosols or with practical limitations on CH4 due to the formation of optically thick organic hazes. Our results indicate that a weak version of the faint young Sun paradox, requiring only that some portion of the planet's surface maintain liquid water, may be resolved with moderate greenhouse gas inventories. Thus, hospitable late Archean climates are easily obtained in our climate model.

  15. The impact of boreal forest fire on climate warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randerson, J T; Liu, H; Flanner, M G; Chambers, S D; Jin, Y; Hess, P G; Pfister, G; Mack, M C; Treseder, K K; Welp, L R; Chapin, F S; Harden, J W; Goulden, M L; Lyons, E; Neff, J C; Schuur, E A G; Zender, C S

    2006-11-17

    We report measurements and analysis of a boreal forest fire, integrating the effects of greenhouse gases, aerosols, black carbon deposition on snow and sea ice, and postfire changes in surface albedo. The net effect of all agents was to increase radiative forcing during the first year (34 +/- 31 Watts per square meter of burned area), but to decrease radiative forcing when averaged over an 80-year fire cycle (-2.3 +/- 2.2 Watts per square meter) because multidecadal increases in surface albedo had a larger impact than fire-emitted greenhouse gases. This result implies that future increases in boreal fire may not accelerate climate warming.

  16. Climate change matters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macpherson, Cheryl Cox

    2014-04-01

    One manifestation of climate change is the increasingly severe extreme weather that causes injury, illness and death through heat stress, air pollution, infectious disease and other means. Leading health organisations around the world are responding to the related water and food shortages and volatility of energy and agriculture prices that threaten health and health economics. Environmental and climate ethics highlight the associated challenges to human rights and distributive justice but rarely address health or encompass bioethical methods or analyses. Public health ethics and its broader umbrella, bioethics, remain relatively silent on climate change. Meanwhile global population growth creates more people who aspire to Western lifestyles and unrestrained socioeconomic growth. Fulfilling these aspirations generates more emissions; worsens climate change; and undermines virtues and values that engender appreciation of, and protections for, natural resources. Greater understanding of how virtues and values are evolving in different contexts, and the associated consequences, might nudge the individual and collective priorities that inform public policy toward embracing stewardship and responsibility for environmental resources necessary to health. Instead of neglecting climate change and related policy, public health ethics and bioethics should explore these issues; bring transparency to the tradeoffs that permit emissions to continue at current rates; and offer deeper understanding about what is at stake and what it means to live a good life in today's world.

  17. Climate change and amphibians

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Corn, P. S.

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Amphibian life histories are exceedingly sensitive to temperature and precipitation, and there is good evidence that recent climate change has already resulted in a shift to breeding earlier in the year for some species. There are also suggestions that the recent increase in the occurrence of El Niño events has caused declines of anurans in Central America and is linked to elevated mortality of amphibian embryos in the northwestern United States. However, evidence linking amphibian declines in Central America to climate relies solely on correlations, and the mechanisms underlying the declines are not understood. Connections between embryo mortality and declines in abundance have not been demonstrated. Analyses of existing data have generally failed to find a link between climate and amphibian declines. It is likely, however, that future climate change will cause further declines of some amphibian species. Reduced soil moisture could reduce prey species and eliminate habitat. Reduced snowfall and increased summer evaporation could have dramatic effects on the duration or occurrence of seasonal wetlands, which are primary habitat for many species of amphibians. Climate change may be a relatively minor cause of current amphibian declines, but it may be the biggest future challenge to the persistence of many species

  18. Forest management under climatic and social uncertainty: trade-offs between reducing climate change impacts and fostering adaptive capacity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seidl, Rupert; Lexer, Manfred J

    2013-01-15

    The unabated continuation of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and the lack of an international consensus on a stringent climate change mitigation policy underscore the importance of adaptation for coping with the all but inevitable changes in the climate system. Adaptation measures in forestry have particularly long lead times. A timely implementation is thus crucial for reducing the considerable climate vulnerability of forest ecosystems. However, since future environmental conditions as well as future societal demands on forests are inherently uncertain, a core requirement for adaptation is robustness to a wide variety of possible futures. Here we explicitly address the roles of climatic and social uncertainty in forest management, and tackle the question of robustness of adaptation measures in the context of multi-objective sustainable forest management (SFM). We used the Austrian Federal Forests (AFF) as a case study, and employed a comprehensive vulnerability assessment framework based on ecosystem modeling, multi-criteria decision analysis, and practitioner participation. We explicitly considered climate uncertainty by means of three climate change scenarios, and accounted for uncertainty in future social demands by means of three societal preference scenarios regarding SFM indicators. We found that the effects of climatic and social uncertainty on the projected performance of management were in the same order of magnitude, underlining the notion that climate change adaptation requires an integrated social-ecological perspective. Furthermore, our analysis of adaptation measures revealed considerable trade-offs between reducing adverse impacts of climate change and facilitating adaptive capacity. This finding implies that prioritization between these two general aims of adaptation is necessary in management planning, which we suggest can draw on uncertainty analysis: Where the variation induced by social-ecological uncertainty renders measures aiming to

  19. Indoor Climate Quality Assessment -

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ansaldi, Roberta; Asadi, Ehsan; Costa, José Joaquim

    This Guidebook gives building professionals useful support in the practical measurements and monitoring of the indoor climate in buildings. It is evident that energy consumption in a building is directly influenced by required and maintained indoor comfort level. Wireless technologies for measure......This Guidebook gives building professionals useful support in the practical measurements and monitoring of the indoor climate in buildings. It is evident that energy consumption in a building is directly influenced by required and maintained indoor comfort level. Wireless technologies...... for measurement and monitoring have allowed a significantly increased number of possible applications, especially in existing buildings. The Guidebook illustrates several cases with the instrumentation of the monitoring and assessment of indoor climate....

  20. Corporate Climate Strategies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjarnø, Ole-Christian; Maltha, Jonas

    2003-01-01

    Since the 1997 Kyoto Protocol on Climate Change outlined the first embryonic plans for an emissions market, a significant uncertainty about the value on carbon, in concert with a swift development in energy business, has brought about the concept of carbon management. Carbon management aims...... strategic carbon management for medium to large companies with greenhouse gas intensive activities. The guideline framework is established on the basis of a generic strategy structure in which the factors influencing corporate climate strategies are identified. It is concluded that there is little rationale...... behind extracting of climate strategy from the Environmental Health and Safety (EHS) context - the truly innovative aspect is the construction of an operational multiple Green House Gas information system, which should 1) measure, monitor, aggregate, record, and disseminate emission data (e.g. through...

  1. Modelling Interglacial Climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Rasmus Anker

    , with maximum warming occurring in winter. The three scenarios all affect the climate beyond the Arctic, especially the mid-latitude circulation which is sensitive to the location of the ice loss. Together, the results presented in this thesis illustrate that the changes in the Arctic sea ice cover......, while the insolation appears to be the dominant cause of the expected ice sheet reduction. The second part explores the atmospheric sensitivity to the location of sea ice loss. Three investigated sea ice scenarios with ice loss in different regions all exhibit substantial near-surface warming...... involves some of the same mechanisms in the two climate states. This thesis aims to investigate these mechanisms through climate model experiments. This two-part study has a special focus on the Arctic region, and the main paleoclimate experiments are supplemented by idealized experiments detailing...

  2. The Sun and climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    ,

    2000-01-01

    Many geologic records of climatic and environmental change based on various proxy variables exhibit distinct cyclicities that have been attributed to extraterrestrial forcing. The best known of these are the changes in Earth’s orbital geometry called Milankovitch Cycles, with periodicities of tens to hundreds of thousands of years. However, many cycles seem to have subMilankovitch periodicities, commonly on decadal and centennial scales, similar to those of known solar cycles. A direct connection between solar irradiance (solar constant) and weather and climate has been suggested for more than 100 years but generally rejected by most scientists, who assume that the effect of solar variations would be small. However, recent satellite radiometer measurements and modeling studies indicate that small changes in total solar irradiance could produce global temperature changes of the magnitude suggested for climatic events such as the Little Ice Age (A.D. 1550–1700).

  3. Embedding Climate Services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shafer, M.; Boone, M.; Keim, B. D.

    2015-12-01

    With the rapidly-increasing number of climate services providers, the landscape for putting climate into practice is getting both easier to access and more confusing. Each provider serves a different clientele, and in so doing draws more stakeholder organizations into the sphere of those using climate information in decision-making. The challenge has been in connecting these new stakeholders with expertise that may reside within a different provider organization. To help close the gap, the Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program (SCIPP; http://www.southernclimate.org), a NOAA RISA Team, initiated a summer internship program, where students with expertise in meteorology or climatology would work for an organization more closely aligned with another climate services provider network. The format was patterned after the successful NSF-funded Research Experience for Undergraduates (REU) program at the National Weather Center, where students are selected from undergraduate programs across the nation to spend a summer conducting research under a scientific mentor. The SCIPP initiative flipped this model, instead sending students to organizations with operational needs for climate information to work under their mentorship in partnership with SCIPP scientists. Over the past two summers, SCIPP has recruited students to work at landscape-based (Gulf Coast Joint Venture and National Wetlands Research Center) and community-based (Tulsa Partners) organizations. Students worked alongside the organizations' staff on a daily basis and were supported through periodic calls with the SCIPP team to help identify appropriate datasets and work through methodological issues. This presentation will discuss how these relationships were created, the expertise of each of the organizations involved, and outcomes from the projects.

  4. Poverty and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Vink, G.; Franco, E.; Fuckar, N. S.; Kalmbach, E. R.; Kayatta, E.; Lankester, K.; Rothschild, R. E.; Sarma, A.; Wall, M. L.

    2008-05-01

    The poor are disproportionately vulnerable to environmental change because they have the least amount of resources with which to adapt, and they live in areas (e.g. flood plains, low-lying coastal areas, and marginal drylands) that are particularly vulnerable to the manifestations of climate change. By quantifying the various environmental, economic, and social factors that can contribute to poverty, we identify populations that are most vulnerable to poverty and poverty traps due to environmental change. We define vulnerability as consisting of risk (probability of event and exposed elements), resiliency, and capacity to respond. Resiliency captures the social system's ability to absorb a natural disaster while retaining the same basic structure, organization, and ways of functioning, as well as its general capacity to adapt to stress and change. Capacity to respond is a surrogate for technical skills, institutional capabilities, and efficacy within countries and their economies. We use a "climate change multiplier" to account for possible increases in the frequency and severity of natural events due to climate change. Through various analytical methods, we quantify the social, political, economic, and environmental factors that contribute to poverty or poverty traps. These data sets are then used to determine vulnerability through raster multiplication in geospatial analysis. The vulnerability of a particular location to climate change is then mapped, with areas of high vulnerability clearly delineated. The success of this methodology indicates that it is indeed possible to quantify the effects of climate change on global vulnerability to natural disasters, and can be used as a mechanism to identify areas where proactive measures, such as improving adaptation or capacity to respond, can reduce the humanitarian and economic impacts of climate change.

  5. 'Initial' Soil Moisture Effects on the Climate in China——A Regional Climate Model Study

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SHI Xueli

    2009-01-01

    In this study, the effects of 'initial' soil moisture (SM) in arid and semi-arid Northwestern China on subsequent climate were investigated with a regional climate model. Besides the control simulations (denoted as CTL), a series of sensitivity experi-ments were conducted, including the DRY and WET experiments, in which the simulated 'initial' SM over the region 30-50°N, 75 -105°E was only 5% and 50%, and up to 150% and 200% of the simulated value in the CTL, respectively. The results show that SM change can modify the subsequent climate in not only the SM-change region proper but also the far downstream regions in Eastern and even Northeastern China. The SM-change effects are generally more prominent in the WET than in the DRY experiments. After the SM is initially increased, the SM in the SM-change region is always higher than that in the CTL, the latent (sensible) heat flux there increases (decreases), and the surface air temperature decreases. Spatially, the most prominent changes in the WET experiments are surface air temperature decrease, geopotential height decrease and corresponding abnormal changes of cyclonic wind vectors at the mid-upper troposphere levels. Generally opposite effects exist in the DRY experiments but with much weaker intensity. In addi-tion, the differences between the results obtained from the two sets of sensitivity experiments and those of the CTL are not always consistent with the variation of the initial SM. Being different from the variation of temperature, the rainfall modifications caused by initial SM change are not so distinct and in fact they show some common features in the WET and DRY experiments. This might imply that SM is only one of the factors that impact the subsequent climate, and its effect is involved in complex processes within the atmosphere, which needs further investigation.

  6. Sensitivity of tropical climate to low-level clouds in the NCEP climate forecast system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hu, Zeng-Zhen [Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States); NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Climate Prediction Center, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Huang, Bohua; Schneider, Edwin K. [Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States); George Mason University, Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences, College of Science, Fairfax, VA (United States); Hou, Yu-Tai; Yang, Fanglin [NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Environmental Modeling Center, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Wang, Wanqiu [NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Climate Prediction Center, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Stan, Cristiana [Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States)

    2011-05-15

    In this work, we examine the sensitivity of tropical mean climate and seasonal cycle to low clouds and cloud liquid water path (CLWP) by prescribing them in the NCEP climate forecast system (CFS). It is found that the change of low cloud cover alone has a minor influence on the amount of net shortwave radiation reaching the surface and on the warm biases in the southeastern Atlantic. In experiments where CLWP is prescribed using observations, the mean climate in the tropics is improved significantly, implying that shortwave radiation absorption by CLWP is mainly responsible for reducing the excessive surface net shortwave radiation over the southern oceans in the CFS. Corresponding to large CLWP values in the southeastern oceans, the model generates large low cloud amounts. That results in a reduction of net shortwave radiation at the ocean surface and the warm biases in the sea surface temperature in the southeastern oceans. Meanwhile, the cold tongue and associated surface wind stress in the eastern oceans become stronger and more realistic. As a consequence of the overall improvement of the tropical mean climate, the seasonal cycle in the tropical Atlantic is also improved. Based on the results from these sensitivity experiments, we propose a model bias correction approach, in which CLWP is prescribed only in the southeastern Atlantic by using observed annual mean climatology of CLWP. It is shown that the warm biases in the southeastern Atlantic are largely eliminated, and the seasonal cycle in the tropical Atlantic Ocean is significantly improved. Prescribing CLWP in the CFS is then an effective interim technique to reduce model biases and to improve the simulation of seasonal cycle in the tropics. (orig.)

  7. The Impact of Climate and Its Variability on Crop Yield and Irrigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, X.; Troy, T.

    2014-12-01

    As the global population grows and the climate changes, having a secure food supply is increasingly important especially under water stressed-conditions. Although irrigation is a positive climate adaptation mechanism for agriculture, it has a potentially negative effect on water resources. It is therefore important to understand how crop yields due to irrigation are affected by climate variability and how irrigation may buffer against climate, allowing for more resilient agricultural systems. Efforts to solve these barely exposed questions can benefit from comprehending the influence of climate variability on crop yield and irrigation water use in the past. To do this, we use historical climate data,irrigation water use data and rainfed and irrigated crop yields over the US to analyze the relationship among climate, irrigation and delta crop yields, gained by subtracting rainfed yield from irrigated yield since 1970. We find that the increase in delta crop yield due to irrigation is larger for certain climate conditions, such that there are optimal climate conditions where irrigation provides a benefit and other conditions where irrigation proves to have marginal benefits when temperature increased to certain degrees. We find that crop water requirements are linked to potential evapotranspiration, yet actual irrigation water use is largely decoupled from the climate conditions but related with other causes. This has important implications for agricultural and water resource system planning, as it implies there are optimal climate zones where irrigation is productive and that changes in water use, both temporally and spatially, could lead to increased water availability without negative impacts on crop yields. Furthermore, based on the exposed relationship between crop yield gained by irrigation and climate variability, those models predicting the global harvest will be redress to estimate crop production in the future more accurately.

  8. A mechanism for dust-induced destabilization of glacial climates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. F. Farrell

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Abrupt transitions between cold/dry stadial and warm/wet interstadial states occurred during glacial periods in the absence of any known external forcing. The climate record preserved in polar glaciers, mountain glaciers, and widespread cave deposits reveals that these events were global in extent with temporal distribution implying an underlying memoryless process with millennial time scale. Here a theory is advanced implicating feedback between atmospheric dust and the hydrological cycle in producing these abrupt transitions. Calculations are performed using a radiative-convective model that includes the interaction of aerosols with radiation to reveal the mechanism of this dust/precipitation interaction feedback process and a Langevin equation is used to illustrate qualitatively glacial climate destabilization by this mechanism. This theory explains the observed abrupt, bimodal, and memoryless nature of these transitions as well as their intrinsic connection with the hydrological cycle.

  9. A mechanism for dust-induced destabilization of glacial climates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. F. Farrell

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Abrupt transitions between cold/dry stadial and warm/wet interstadial states occurred during glacial periods in the absence of any known external forcing. The climate record preserved in polar glaciers, mountain glaciers, and widespread cave deposits reveals that these events were global in extent with temporal distribution implying an underlying memoryless process with millennial time scale. Here a theory is advanced implicating feedback between atmospheric dust and the hydrological cycle in producing these abrupt transitions. Calculations are performed using a radiative-convective model that includes the interaction of aerosols with radiation to reveal the mechanism of this dust/precipitation interaction feedback process and a Langevin equation is used to illustrate glacial climate destabilization by this mechanism. This theory explains the observed abrupt, bimodal, and memoryless nature of these transitions as well as their intrinsic connection with the hydrological cycle.

  10. The accretion of solar material onto white dwarfs: No mixing with core material implies that the mass of the white dwarf is increasing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sumner Starrfield

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Cataclysmic Variables (CVs are close binary star systems with one component a white dwarf (WD and the other a larger cooler star that fills its Roche Lobe. The cooler star is losing mass through the inner Lagrangian point of the binary and some unknown fraction of this material is accreted by the WD. One consequence of the WDs accreting material, is the possibility that they are growing in mass and will eventually reach the Chandrasekhar Limit. This evolution could result in a Supernova Ia (SN Ia explosion and is designated the Single Degenerate Progenitor (SD scenario. This paper is concerned with the SD scenario for SN Ia progenitors. One problem with the single degenerate scenario is that it is generally assumed that the accreting material mixes with WD core material at some time during the accretion phase of evolution and, since the typical WD has a carbon-oxygen CO core, the mixing results in large amounts of carbon and oxygen being brought up into the accreted layers. The presence of enriched carbon causes enhanced nuclear fusion and a Classical Nova explosion. Both observations and theoretical studies of these explosions imply that more mass is ejected than is accreted. Thus, the WD in a Classical Nova system is losing mass and cannot be a SN Ia progenitor. However, the composition in the nuclear burning region is important and, in new calculations reported here, the consequences to the WD of no mixing of accreted material with core material have been investigated so that the material involved in the explosion has only a Solar composition. WDs with a large range in initial masses and mass accretion rates have been evolved. I find that once sufficient material has been accreted, nuclear burning occurs in all evolutionary sequences and continues until a thermonuclear runaway (TNR occurs and the WD either ejects a small amount of material or its radius grows to about 1012 cm and the evolution is ended. In all cases where mass ejection occurs

  11. Frequent substitution polymorphisms in African green monkey CCR5 cluster at critical sites for infections by simian immunodeficiency virus SIVagm, implying ancient virus-host coevolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuhmann, S E; Madani, N; Diop, O M; Platt, E J; Morvan, J; Müller-Trutwin, M C; Barré-Sinoussi, F; Kabat, D

    2001-09-01

    In contrast to humans, several primate species are believed to have harbored simian immunodeficiency viruses (SIVs) since ancient times. In particular, the geographically dispersed species of African green monkeys (AGMs) are all infected with highly diversified SIVagm viruses at high prevalences (greater than 50% of sexually mature individuals) without evident diseases, implying that the progenitor monkeys were infected prior to their dispersal. If this is correct, AGMs would be expected to have accumulated frequent resistance-conferring polymorphisms in host genes that are important for SIV replication. Accordingly, we analyzed the coding sequences of the CCR5 coreceptors from 26 AGMs (52 alleles) in distinct populations of the four species. These samples contained 29 nonsynonymous coding changes and only 15 synonymous nucleotide substitutions, implying intense functional selection. Moreover, 24 of the resulting amino acid substitutions were tightly clustered in the CCR5 amino terminus (D13N in the vervets and Y14N in the tantalus species) or in the first extracellular loop (Q93R and Q93K in all species). The Y14N substitution was extremely frequent in the 12 wild-born African tantalus, with 7 monkeys being homozygous for this substitution and 4 being heterozygous. Although two of these heterozygotes and the only wild-type homozygote were naturally infected with SIVagm, none of the Y14N homozygotes were naturally infected. A focal infectivity assay for SIVagm indicated that all five tested SIVagms efficiently use CCR5 as a coreceptor and that they also use CXCR6 (STRL33/Bonzo) and GPR15 (BOB) with lower efficiencies but not CXCR4. Interestingly, the D13N, Y14N, Q93R, and Q93K substitutions in AGM CCR5 all strongly inhibited infections by the SIVagm isolates in vitro. The Y14N substitution eliminates a tyrosine sulfation site that is important for infections and results in partial N-linked glycosylation (i.e., 60% efficiency) at this position. Nevertheless, the CCR

  12. Climate Change and Poverty Reduction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, Simon

    2011-08-15

    Climate change will make it increasingly difficult to achieve and sustain development goals. This is largely because climate effects on poverty remain poorly understood, and poverty reduction strategies do not adequately support climate resilience. Ensuring effective development in the face of climate change requires action on six fronts: investing in a stronger climate and poverty evidence base; applying the learning about development effectiveness to how we address adaptation needs; supporting nationally derived, integrated policies and programmes; including the climate-vulnerable poor in developing strategies; and identifying how mitigation strategies can also reduce poverty and enable adaptation.

  13. Physical Processes Controlling Earth's Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Genio, Anthony Del

    2013-01-01

    As background for consideration of the climates of the other terrestrial planets in our solar system and the potential habitability of rocky exoplanets, we discuss the basic physics that controls the Earths present climate, with particular emphasis on the energy and water cycles. We define several dimensionless parameters relevant to characterizing a planets general circulation, climate and hydrological cycle. We also consider issues associated with the use of past climate variations as indicators of future anthropogenically forced climate change, and recent advances in understanding projections of future climate that might have implications for Earth-like exoplanets.

  14. CLIMATE CHANGE, Change International Negociations?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Gao Xiaosheng

    2009-01-01

    @@ Climate change is one of key threats to human beings who have to deal with.According to Bali Action Plan released after the 2007 Bali Climate Talk held in Indonesia,the United Nations Framework on Climate Change(UNFCCC) has launched a two-year process to negotiate a post-2012 climate arrangement after the Kyoto Protocol expires in 2012 and the Copenhagen Climate Change Conference will seal a final deal on post-2012 climate regime in December,2009.For this,the United Nation Chief Ban Ki Moon called 2009"the year ofclimate change".

  15. Pliocene climate lessons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Marci M.

    2011-01-01

    The middle portion of the Pliocene Epoch—about three million years ago—is the most recent period when global temperatures were sustained at levels comparable to those we may see at the end of this century due to climate change. One way to seek a more accurate view of a warmer Earth is to look closely at that time. Paleoclimate studies of the mid-Pliocene are also emerging as a ground truth for testing the accuracy of computer models used to predict Earth’s future climate.

  16. Climates, Landscapes, and Civilizations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schultz, Colin

    2013-10-01

    Humans are now the dominant driver of global climate change. From ocean acidification to sea level rise, changes in precipitation patterns, and rising temperatures, global warming is presenting us with an uncertain future. However, this is not the first time human civilizations have faced a changing world. In the AGU monograph Climates, Landscapes, and Civilizations, editors Liviu Giosan, Dorian Q. Fuller, Kathleen Nicoll, Rowan K. Flad, and Peter C. Clift explore how some ancient peoples weathered the shifting storms while some faded away. In this interview, Eos speaks with Liviu Giosan about the decay of civilizations, ancient adaptation, and the surprisingly long history of humanity's effect on the Earth.

  17. Urban Climate Risk Communities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blok, Anders

    2016-01-01

    Ulrich Beck’s cosmopolitan sociology affords a much-needed rethinking of the transnational politics of climate change, not least in pointing to an emerging inter-urban geography of world cities as a potential new source of community, change and solidarity. This short essay, written in honour...... of Beck’s forward-looking agenda for a post-Euro-centric social science, outlines the contours of such an urban-cosmopolitan ‘realpolitik’ of climate risks, as this is presently unfolding across East Asian world cities. Much more than a theory-building endeavour, the essay suggests, Beck’s sociology...

  18. Corporate Climate Strategies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjarnø, Ole-Christian; Maltha, Jonas

    2003-01-01

    Since the 1997 Kyoto Protocol on Climate Change outlined the first embryonic plans for an emissions market, a significant uncertainty about the value on carbon, in concert with a swift development in energy business, has brought about the concept of carbon management. Carbon management aims...... close integration with existing EMS), 2) verify, certify and report data, 3) identify reduction potentials and develop marginal abatement cost estimations (carbon pricing), and 4) coordinate and administer trades and exchange of quotas and credits. To conclude we suggest a framework, which despite...... the limited empirical background, provides indications of how to approach a climate strategy....

  19. Climate friendly dietary guidelines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Trolle, Ellen; Mogensen, Lisbeth; Thorsen, Anne Vibeke

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate how the present Danish diet could be changed in a climate friendly direction that follows the recommendations of a healthy diet. The carbon footprint (CF) of an average Danish diet was calculated and compared to CF of a recommended healthy diet by 1......%, if the healthy diet was eaten instead of the average current diet. However, if the diet was climate optimized by choosing foods with a low CF within the food groups; meat, vegetables and fruit, CF of this diet may be reduced by 23 % compared to CF of the average diet....

  20. Multifrenic Climate Discourses

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Tove Arendt; Andersen, Maria Wael; Halgaard Nielsen, Marie

    On the basis of qualitative interviews on ’Energibyen Frederikshavn’ (Energy City Frederikshavn), the article reveals various rationales underlying modern consumers' often contradictory opinions and attitudes to climate change and energy consumption. It may seem hard to decide whether the interest...... in sustainable, alternative sources of energy is conditioned by the soaring price of oil or present threats of climate change. The paper will discuss the energy discourses produced by the people in the participating focus group in the light of three rather different, theoretical positions. And, finally, we...

  1. Universal Spectrum for Natural Variability of Climate Implications for Climate Change

    CERN Document Server

    Pethkar, J S

    2001-01-01

    The apparantly irregular (unpredictable) space-time fluctuations in atmospheric flows ranging from climate (thousands of kilometers - years) to turbulence (millimeters - seconds) exhibit the universal symmetry of self-similarity. Self-similarity or scale invariance implies long-range spatiotemporal correlations and is manifested in atmospheric flows as the fractal geometry to spatial pattern concomitant with inverse power-law form for power spectra of temporal fluctuations. Long-range spatiotemporal correlations are ubiquitous to dynamical systems in nature and are identified as signatures of self-organized criticality. Standard meteorological theory cannot explain satisfactorily the observed self-organized criticality. Numerical models for simulation and prediction of atmospheric flows are subject to deterministic chaos and give unrealistic solutions. Deterministic chaos is a direct consequence of round-off error growth in iterative computations. Round-off error of finite precision computations doubles on an...

  2. Climate Leadership webinar on Integrating Energy and Climate Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allergan, a multi-specialty healthcare company and pharmaceutical manufacturer, discusses how it manages climate and energy risks, how these areas are linked, and how energy and climate management strategies pervade critical business decisions.

  3. Lack of Climate Expertise Among Climate Change Educators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doesken, N.

    2015-12-01

    It is hard to know enough about anything. Many educators fully accept the science as well as the hype associated with climate change and try very hard to be climate literate. But many of these same educators striving for greater climate literacy are surprisingly ignorant about the climate itself (typical seasonal cycles, variations, extremes, spatial patterns and the drivers that produce them). As a result, some of these educators and their students are tempted to interpret each and every hot or cold and wet or dry spell as convincing evidence of climate change even as climate change "skeptics" view those same fluctuations as normal. Educators' overreaction risks a backfire reaction resulting in loss of credibility among the very groups they are striving to educate and influence. This presentation will include reflections on climate change education and impacts based on 4 decades of climate communication in Colorado.

  4. The Social Cost of Stochastic and Irreversible Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Y.; Judd, K. L.; Lontzek, T.

    2013-12-01

    Many scientists are worried about climate change triggering abrupt and irreversible events leading to significant and long-lasting damages. For example, a rapid release of methane from permafrost may lead to amplified global warming, and global warming may increase the frequency and severity of heavy rainfall or typhoon, destroying large cities and killing numerous people. Some elements of the climate system which might exhibit such a triggering effect are called tipping elements. There is great uncertainty about the impact of anthropogenic carbon and tipping elements on future economic wellbeing. Any rational policy choice must consider the great uncertainty about the magnitude and timing of global warming's impact on economic productivity. While the likelihood of tipping points may be a function of contemporaneous temperature, their effects are long lasting and might be independent of future temperatures. It is assumed that some of these tipping points might occur even in this century, but also that their duration and post-tipping impact are uncertain. A faithful representation of the possibility of tipping points for the calculation of social cost of carbon would require a fully stochastic formulation of irreversibility, and accounting for the deep layer of uncertainties regarding the duration of the tipping process and also its economic impact. We use DSICE, a DSGE extension of the DICE2007 model of William Nordhaus, which incorporates beliefs about the uncertain economic impact of possible climate tipping events and uses empirically plausible parameterizations of Epstein-Zin preferences to represent attitudes towards risk. We find that the uncertainty associated with anthropogenic climate change imply carbon taxes much higher than implied by deterministic models. This analysis indicates that the absence of uncertainty in DICE2007 and similar IAM models may result in substantial understatement of the potential benefits of policies to reduce GHG emissions.

  5. Greenhouse effect and climate; Effet de serre et climat

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Poitou, J

    2008-04-15

    In the framework of the climatic change, the author aims to explain the phenomena of greenhouse effect. He details the historical aspects of the scientific knowledge in the domain, the gases produced, some characteristic of the greenhouse effect, the other actors which contribute to the climate, the climate simulation, the different factors of climate change since 1750 and the signs of the global heating. (A.L.B.)

  6. Projected Future Climate Analogues and Climate "Velocities" in North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shafer, S. L.; Bartlein, P. J.

    2014-12-01

    Future climate changes may have significant effects on many North American ecosystems. One way of assessing the potential impacts of future climate change is to use future climate analogues of present climate to evaluate the spatial extent and rates of future climate change. We used a set of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) future climate simulations (2006-2100) produced under representative concentration pathway scenario RCP8.5. We regridded these data to a 10-km equal-area grid of North America. Modern climate data (1961-1990 30-year mean) were interpolated to the same 10-km grid. The projected future climate data were analyzed using 10-year mean values of monthly and seasonal temperature and precipitation and a set of derived annual bioclimatic variables (e.g., growing degree days) considered to be ecologically significant. Potential future climate analogues were calculated for each grid cell using Euclidean distances to identify similar climates occurring elsewhere in North America. We identify regions that are projected to retain climates similar to present in the future (e.g., parts of the southeastern United States) and regions where present climates are projected to become less common or to disappear in the future (e.g., high elevation sites in western North America). We also calculate the rates of change in locations of similar climates (i.e., climate analogue velocities) and compare our results with simulated paleoclimate velocities over the past 22 kyr (from TraCE-21ka transient climate simulations for 22 ka-present). We discuss the implications of these results for conservation and natural resource management in North America. We also describe a web application being developed to allow researchers, decision makers, and members of the public, to visualize, explore, and use the climate analogue data.

  7. Connecting today's climates to future climate analogs to facilitate movement of species under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Littlefield, Caitlin E; McRae, Brad H; Michalak, Julia L; Lawler, Joshua J; Carroll, Carlos

    2017-03-24

    Increasing connectivity is an important strategy for facilitating species range shifts and maintaining biodiversity in the face of climate change. To date, however, few researchers have included future climate projections in efforts to prioritize areas for increasing connectivity. We identified key areas likely to facilitate climate-induced species' movement across western North America. Using historical climate data sets and future climate projections, we mapped potential species' movement routes that link current climate conditions to analogous climate conditions in the future (i.e., future climate analogs) with a novel moving-window analysis based on electrical circuit theory. In addition to tracing shifting climates, the approach accounted for landscape permeability and empirically derived species' dispersal capabilities. We compared connectivity maps generated with our climate-change-informed approach with maps of connectivity based solely on the degree of human modification of the landscape. Including future climate projections in connectivity models substantially shifted and constrained priority areas for movement to a smaller proportion of the landscape than when climate projections were not considered. Potential movement, measured as current flow, decreased in all ecoregions when climate projections were included, particularly when dispersal was limited, which made climate analogs inaccessible. Many areas emerged as important for connectivity only when climate change was modeled in 2 time steps rather than in a single time step. Our results illustrate that movement routes needed to track changing climatic conditions may differ from those that connect present-day landscapes. Incorporating future climate projections into connectivity modeling is an important step toward facilitating successful species movement and population persistence in a changing climate. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

  8. High temporal and spatial diversity in marine RNA viruses implies that they have an important role in mortality and structuring plankton communities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julia Anne Gustavsen

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Viruses in the order Picornavirales infect eukaryotes, and are widely distributed in coastal waters. Amplicon deep-sequencing of the RNA dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp revealed diverse and highly uneven communities of picorna-like viruses in the coastal waters of British Columbia (B.C., Canada. Almost 300 000 pyrosequence reads revealed 145 operational taxonomic units (OTUs based on 95% sequence similarity at the amino-acid level. Each sample had between 24 and 71 OTUs and there was little overlap among samples. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that some clades of OTUs were only found at one site; whereas, other groups included OTUs from all sites. Since most of these OTUs are likely from viruses that infect eukaryotic phytoplankton, and viral isolates infecting phytoplankton are strain-specific; each OTU probably arose from the lysis of a specific phytoplankton taxon. Moreover, the patchiness in OTU distribution, and the high turnover of viruses in the mixed layer, implies continuous infection and lysis by RNA viruses of a diverse array of eukaryotic phytoplankton taxa. Hence, these viruses are likely important elements structuring the phytoplankton community, and play a significant role in nutrient cycling and energy transfer.

  9. Health Complaints Associated with Poor Rental Housing Conditions in Arkansas: The Only State Without a Landlord’s Implied Warranty of Habitability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ashley Bachelder

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Arkansas is the only U.S. state that does not have a landlord’s implied warranty of habitability, meaning tenants have a requirement for maintaining their rental properties at certain habitability standards, but landlords are not legally required to contribute to those minimum health and safety standards. This project assessed the possibility that this lack of landlord responsibility affects tenants’ perceived health. Using surveys and interviews, we collected self-reported data on the prevalence and description of problems faced by renters who needed household repairs from their landlords. Of almost 1000 renters, one third of them had experienced a problem with their landlord making needed repairs; and one-quarter of those had a health issue they attributed to their housing conditions. Common issues included problems with plumbing, heating or cooling systems, and pest or rodent control. Reported health problems included elevated stress levels, breathing problems, headaches, high blood pressure and bites or infections. Hispanic respondents and those with less than a high school education were both significantly more likely to report problems with their landlords not making repairs as requested. The data suggest that the lack of landlord requirements may negatively impact the condition of rental properties, and therefore may negatively impact the health of Arkansas renters.

  10. Lower limits on the anisotropy of the extragalactic gamma-ray background implied by the 2FGL and 1FHL catalogs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Broderick, Avery E.; Smith, Kendrick M. [Perimeter Institute for Theoretical Physics, 31 Caroline Street North, Waterloo, ON N2L 2Y5 (Canada); Pfrommer, Christoph; Puchwein, Ewald [Heidelberg Institute for Theoretical Studies, Schloss-Wolfsbrunnenweg 35, D-69118 Heidelberg (Germany); Chang, Philip [Department of Physics, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, 1900 E. Kenwood Boulevard, Milwaukee, WI 53211 (United States)

    2014-11-20

    In principle, the angular anisotropy in the extragalactic gamma-ray background (EGRB) places severe constraints upon putative populations of unresolved gamma-ray point sources. Existing estimates of the EGRB anisotropy have been constructed by excising known point sources, e.g., taken from the First or Two Year Fermi-LAT Source Catalog (1FGL or 2FGL, respectively) and statistically analyzing the residual gamma-ray sky maps. We perform an independent check of the EGRB anisotropy limits by comparing the values obtained from the 1FGL-masked sky maps to the signal implied by sources that lie below the 1FGL detection threshold in the more sensitive 2FGL and 1FHL (First Fermi-LAT catalog of >10 GeV sources). As such, our analysis provides an internal consistency check of implications for source counts and spectral index distributions of gamma-ray bright active galactic nuclei obtained from Fermi-LAT data. Based on this, we find evidence for substantially larger anisotropies than those previously reported at energies above 5 GeV, where BL Lac objects are likely to provide the bulk of their contribution to the EGRB. This uncertainty in the EGRB anisotropy cautions against using it as an independent constraint for the high-redshift gamma-ray universe. Moreover, this would suggest that contrary to previous claims, smooth extensions of the resolved point-source population may be able to simultaneously explain both the isotropic and anisotropic components of the EGRB.

  11. The spatiotemporal dynamic analysis of the implied market information and characteristics of the correlation coefficient matrix of the international crude oil price returns

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tian, Lixin [Jiangsu University, Energy Development and Environmental Protection Strategy Research Center, Zhenjiang, Jiangsu (China); Nanjing Normal University, School of Mathematical Sciences, Nanjing, Jiangsu (China); Ding, Zhenqi; Zhen, Zaili [Jiangsu University, Energy Development and Environmental Protection Strategy Research Center, Zhenjiang, Jiangsu (China); Wang, Minggang [Nanjing Normal University, School of Mathematical Sciences, Nanjing, Jiangsu (China)

    2016-08-15

    The international crude oil market plays a crucial role in economies, and the studies of the correlation, risk and synchronization of the international crude oil market have important implications for the security and stability of the country, avoidance of business risk and people's daily lives. We investigate the information and characteristics of the international crude oil market (1999-2015) based on the random matrix theory (RMT). Firstly, we identify richer information in the largest eigenvalues deviating from RMT predictions for the international crude oil market; the international crude oil market can be roughly divided into ten different periods by the methods of eigenvectors and characteristic combination, and the implied market information of the correlation coefficient matrix is advanced. Secondly, we study the characteristics of the international crude oil market by the methods of system risk entropy, dynamic synchronous ratio, dynamic non-synchronous ratio and dynamic clustering algorithm. The results show that the international crude oil market is full of risk. The synchronization of the international crude oil market is very strong, and WTI and Brent occupy a very important position in the international crude oil market. (orig.)

  12. Transport-related measures to mitigate climate change in Basel, Switzerland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Perez, L.; Trüeb, S.; Cowie, H.

    2015-01-01

    as status quo. The changes in non-climatic population exposure included ambient air pollution, physical activity, and noise. As secondary outcome, changes in Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) were put into perspective with predicted changes of CO2 emissions and fuel consumption. Results......Background: Local strategies to reduce green-house gases (GHG) imply changes of non-climatic exposure patterns. Objective: To assess the health impacts of locally relevant transport-related climate change policies in Basel, Switzerland. Methods: We modelled change in mortality and morbidity...... policies in Basel are sensible for mitigating climate change and improving public health. In this context, the most effective policy remains increasing zero-emission vehicles....

  13. Climate project screening tool: an aid for climate change adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toni Lyn Morelli; Sharon Yeh; Nikola M. Smith; Mary Beth Hennessy; Constance I. Millar

    2012-01-01

    To address the impacts of climate change, land managers need techniques for incorporating adaptation into ongoing or impending projects. We present a new tool, the Climate Project Screening Tool (CPST), for integrating climate change considerations into project planning as well as for developing concrete adaptation options for land managers. We designed CPST as part of...

  14. Climate programs update: USDA Southwest Regional Climate Hub update

    Science.gov (United States)

    PROGRAM OVERVIEW: The overarching goal of the USDA SW Climate Hub is to assist farmers, ranchers and foresters in addressing the effects of climate change including prolonged drought, increased insect outbreaks and severe wildfires. In the first year of operations, the SW Climate Hub (est. Februa...

  15. A Climate System Model, Numerical Simulation and Climate Predictability

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZENG Qingcun; WANG Huijun; LIN Zhaohui; ZHOU Guangqing; YU Yongqiang

    2007-01-01

    @@ The implementation of the project has lasted for more than 20 years. As a result, the following key innovative achievements have been obtained, ranging from the basic theory of climate dynamics, numerical model development and its related computational theory to the dynamical climate prediction using the climate system models:

  16. Beyond local climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    D'haen, Sarah Ann Lise; Nielsen, Jonas Østergaard; Lambin, Eric F.

    2014-01-01

    At the household level, nonfarm activities are thought to help rural poor households buffer against agricultural risks related to local climate variability by providing them with cash to buy food in the case of harvest shortfalls. Over the recent decades, households in rural Sub-Sahara have been...

  17. Tackling Climate Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    Representatives from nearly 200 countries and regions have gathered in Durban,South Africa,for the 17th session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the 7th session of the Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol.The meeting is the follow-up conference to tacklin

  18. Turfgrass and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change is occurring and is manifesting its impact on biological systems through increased temperatures, precipitation, and carbon dioxide. These effects have been documented for a few agricultural species, primarily the grain crops and pasture and rangeland species. The extension of these re...

  19. Teaching Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Donoghue, A.

    2011-09-01

    In giving public presentations about climate change, we face the barriers of mis-information in the political debate and lack of science literacy that extends to science phobia for some. In climate issues, the later problem is compounded by the fact that the science - reconstruction of past climate through the use of proxy sources, such as isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen - is complex, making it more challenging for general audiences. Also, the process of science, particularly peer review, is suspected by some to be a way of keeping science orthodox instead of keeping it honest. I approach these barriers by focusing on the data and the fact that the data have been carefully acquired over decades and centuries by dedicated people with no political agenda. I have taught elderhostel courses twice and have given many public talks on this topic. Thus I have experience in this area to share with others. I would also like to learn of others' approaches to the vast amount of scientific information and getting past the politics. A special interest group on climate change will allow those of us to speak on this important topic to share how we approach both the science and the politics of this issue.

  20. Carbon Dioxide and Climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brewer, Peter G.

    1978-01-01

    The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is increasing at a rate that could cause significant warming of the Earth's climate in the not too distant future. Oceanographers are studying the role of the ocean as a source of carbon dioxide and as a sink for the gas. (Author/BB)

  1. Birth of a Climate

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    陈树仁

    1994-01-01

    The glaciers of the last ice age began to retreat about 15, 000 yearsago, but the warm climate we know today did not emerge directly. For aperiod lasting from about 13, 000 to 11. 700 years ago, the North Atlanticregion relapsed into frigid conditions. Researchers have long known that

  2. Diversity cognition and climates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Knippenberg, D.; Homan, A.C.; van Ginkel, W.; Roberson, Q.M.

    2013-01-01

    Demographic diversity at work can yield performance benefits but also invite psychological disengagement and be a source of interpersonal tension. In managing this double-edged sword of demographic diversity, the role of diversity cognition (beliefs, attitudes) and climates seems particularly

  3. Adaptation to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Carmin, J.; Tierney, K.; Chu, E.; Hunter, L.M.; Roberts, J.T.; Shi, L.; Dunlap, R.E.; Brulle, R.J.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change adaptation involves major global and societal challenges such as finding adequate and equitable adaptation funding and integrating adaptation and development programs. Current funding is insufficient. Debates between the Global North and South center on how best to allocate the financ

  4. Learning Progressions & Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Joyce M.; de los Santos, Elizabeth X.; Anderson, Charles W.

    2015-01-01

    Our society is currently having serious debates about sources of energy and global climate change. But do students (and the public) have the requisite knowledge to engage these issues as informed citizenry? The learning-progression research summarized here indicates that only 10% of high school students typically have a level of understanding…

  5. Investigating Future Climate Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dempsey, Chris; Bodzin, Alec; Anastasio, David; Sahagian, Dork; Cirucci, Lori

    2012-01-01

    One of the most alarming impacts of projected climate change is a significant rise in sea level. Sea level has varied by hundreds of meters over geologic time, yet these changes have generally been slow paced, allowing ecosystems to adjust to changing land surface and marine habitats. Since the Industrial Revolution, anthropogenic emissions have…

  6. Corporate Climate Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    The American Chamber of Commerce, the People's Republic of China (AmCham-China) and the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai recently released "American Corporate Experience in a Changing China: Insights From AmCham Business Climate Surveys, 1999-2005." Excerpts of the report follow:

  7. Climate report 1997

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andersson, Lars; Axelsson, Pernilla; Fegler, C. [and others

    1998-11-01

    The Swedish Environmental Protection Agency, NV, the National Board for Industrial and Technical Development, NUTEK, and the Swedish Institute for Transport and Communications Analysis, SIKA, have been commissioned by the Government to furnish background material for Sweden`s second national report on climate change. The national report is a commitment vis-a-vis the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC). Sweden`s first national report was presented in 1994, and the second was completed and adopted by the Government on 3 April 1997. This study is a more detailed account based on NUTEK`s background material for the national report. NUTEK has been Sweden`s central authority within the energy field. The authority`s work with the background material for the national report has primarily been concentrated on projections of the future development of the energy system. However, the forecasts for energy use in the transport sector are mainly based on forecasts of transport activity prepared by SIKA. Furthermore NUTEK has been responsible for the calculations of the effects of policy instruments on the carbon dioxide emissions. The Swedish Environmental Protection Agency is responsible for the calculations of emissions of climate gases in the background material for the national report. These calculations of the energy system`s emissions of carbon dioxide and other climate gases are based on NUTEK`s energy forecasts 13 figs, 38 tabs

  8. Deliberating Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Agger, Annika; Jelsøe, Erling; Jæger, Birgit

    to include the voice of the citizens into complex scientific and technological issues. The purpose of WWV was to pass on the opinions of ordinary citizens to political decision-makers at The United Nations Climate Summit, COP15, in Copenhagen in December 2009. The authors made a study of the Danish WWV event...

  9. DTU Climate Change Technologies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    During 2008 and 2009, DTU held a workshop series focusing on assessment of and adaption to climate changes as well as on mitigation of green house gasses. In the workshops, a total of 1500 scientists, government officials and business leaders have outlined scenarios for technology development...

  10. Evaporation and Climate Change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brandsma, T.

    1993-01-01

    In this article the influence of climate change on evaporation is discussed. The emphasis is on open water evaporation. Three methods for calculating evaporation are compared considering only changes in temperature and factors directly dependent on temperature. The Penman-method is used to

  11. Smarter greenhouse climate control

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nederhoff, E.M.; Houter, G.

    2011-01-01

    Greenhouse operators strive to be as economic as possible with energy. However, investing in fancy energy-saving equipment is often not cost-effective for smaller operations and in climate zones with mild winters. It is possible, though, for many growers to save energy without buying special equipme

  12. [Climate change and pollination].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Besancenot, J-P; Thibaudon, M

    2012-12-01

    There is growing evidence to support an increase in air temperature over recent decades, with significant effects on aeroallergens such as pollen. It is generally accepted that the trend will continue, and become even more pronounced in the future. Global climate change is already affecting, and will continue to affect, with earlier floral initiation, the timing of the production of allergenic pollen. In addition, a warmer climate might lead to a longer pollen season and more days with high pollen counts. It could also increase the allergen content of pollens, and result in extension of plant species towards the poles and higher altitudes. Finally, rising levels of atmospheric CO₂ are likely to reinforce these trends. These predictions are subject to uncertainties that may lead to outcomes that differ materially from what is expected. Understanding the magnitude and direction of the changes affecting pollinisation is critical in order to quantify the future allergic disease burden and model the impacts of different climate change scenarios. Climate change influences the production, distribution, dispersion and allergenicity of anemophilous pollen and the growth and distribution of weeds, grasses and trees that produce it. These changes in aeroallergens and subsequent human exposure could affect the prevalence and severity of allergic disorders. There is, therefore, an important public health issue that requires development and implementation of appropriate response strategies without delay. © 2012 SPLF. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  13. Diversity cognition and climates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Knippenberg, D.; Homan, A.C.; van Ginkel, W.; Roberson, Q.M.

    2013-01-01

    Demographic diversity at work can yield performance benefits but also invite psychological disengagement and be a source of interpersonal tension. In managing this double-edged sword of demographic diversity, the role of diversity cognition (beliefs, attitudes) and climates seems particularly promis

  14. Adaptation to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Carmin, J.; Tierney, K.; Chu, E.; Hunter, L.M.; Roberts, J.T.; Shi, L.; Dunlap, R.E.; Brulle, R.J.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change adaptation involves major global and societal challenges such as finding adequate and equitable adaptation funding and integrating adaptation and development programs. Current funding is insufficient. Debates between the Global North and South center on how best to allocate the

  15. Evaporation and Climate Change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brandsma, T.

    1993-01-01

    In this article the influence of climate change on evaporation is discussed. The emphasis is on open water evaporation. Three methods for calculating evaporation are compared considering only changes in temperature and factors directly dependent on temperature. The Penman-method is used to investiga

  16. Climate and peatlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Jong, R.; Blaauw, M.; Chambers, F.M.; Christensen, T.R.; De Vleeschouwer, F.; Finsinger, W.; Fronzek, S.; Johansson, M.; Kokfelt, U.; Lamentowicz, M.; Le Roux, G.; Mauquoy, D.; Mitchell, E.A.D.; Nichols, J.E.; Samaritani, E.; van Geel, B.; Dodson, J.

    2010-01-01

    Peatlands are an important natural archive for past climatic changes, primarily due to their sensitivity to changes in the water balance and the dating possibilities of peat sediments. In addition, peatlands are an important sink as well as potential source of greenhouse gases. The first part of thi

  17. Energy and Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-06-15

    Climate change, and more specifically the carbon emissions from energy production and use, is one of the more vexing problems facing society today. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has just completed its latest assessment on the state of the science of climate change, on the potential consequences related to this change, and on the mitigation steps that could be implemented beginning now, particularly in the energy sector. Few people now doubt that anthropogenic climate change is real or that steps must be taken to deal with it. The World Energy Council has long recognized this serious concern and that in its role as the world's leading international energy organization, it can address the concerns of how to provide adequate energy for human well-being while sustaining our overall quality of life. It has now performed and published 15 reports and working papers on this subject. This report examines what has worked and what is likely to work in the future in this regard and provides policymakers with a practical roadmap to a low-carbon future and the steps needed to achieve it.

  18. Corporation as climate ambassador

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Trapp, Leila

    2012-01-01

    At a time when corporations are addressing increasingly complex, global corporate social responsibility (CSR) issues, this study examines and evaluates the strategies used in Vattenfall’s challenging and innovative CSR campaign which aimed at establishing the energy company as a credible climate...

  19. Volcanic Eruptions and Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    LeGrande, Allegra N.; Anchukaitis, Kevin J.

    2015-01-01

    Volcanic eruptions represent some of the most climatically important and societally disruptive short-term events in human history. Large eruptions inject ash, dust, sulfurous gases (e.g. SO2, H2S), halogens (e.g. Hcl and Hbr), and water vapor into the Earth's atmosphere. Sulfurous emissions principally interact with the climate by converting into sulfate aerosols that reduce incoming solar radiation, warming the stratosphere and altering ozone creation, reducing global mean surface temperature, and suppressing the hydrological cycle. In this issue, we focus on the history, processes, and consequences of these large eruptions that inject enough material into the stratosphere to significantly affect the climate system. In terms of the changes wrought on the energy balance of the Earth System, these transient events can temporarily have a radiative forcing magnitude larger than the range of solar, greenhouse gas, and land use variability over the last millennium. In simulations as well as modern and paleoclimate observations, volcanic eruptions cause large inter-annual to decadal-scale changes in climate. Active debates persist concerning their role in longer-term (multi-decadal to centennial) modification of the Earth System, however.

  20. Learning Progressions & Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Joyce M.; de los Santos, Elizabeth X.; Anderson, Charles W.

    2015-01-01

    Our society is currently having serious debates about sources of energy and global climate change. But do students (and the public) have the requisite knowledge to engage these issues as informed citizenry? The learning-progression research summarized here indicates that only 10% of high school students typically have a level of understanding…

  1. Coping with climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zheng, Yuan; Byg, Anja

    2014-01-01

    found across villages regarding the degree of perceived sensitivity and responses despite similar exposure to climate extremes. These differences are partly related to the nature of events and varied socio-economic characteristics of households, which influence their vulnerability and ability to cope...

  2. Deliberating Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Agger, Annika; Jelsøe, Erling; Jæger, Birgit

    to include the voice of the citizens into complex scientific and technological issues. The purpose of WWV was to pass on the opinions of ordinary citizens to political decision-makers at The United Nations Climate Summit, COP15, in Copenhagen in December 2009. The authors made a study of the Danish WWV event...

  3. Cross-scale intercomparison of climate change impacts simulated by regional and global hydrological models in eleven large river basins

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hattermann, F. F.; Krysanova, V.; Gosling, S. N.; Dankers, R.; Daggupati, P.; Donnelly, C.; Flörke, M.; Huang, S.; Motovilov, Y.; Buda, S.; Yang, T.; Müller, C.; Leng, G.; Tang, Q.; Portmann, F. T.; Hagemann, S.; Gerten, D.; Wada, Y.; Masaki, Y.; Alemayehu, T.; Satoh, Y.; Samaniego, L.

    2017-01-04

    Ideally, the results from models operating at different scales should agree in trend direction and magnitude of impacts under climate change. However, this implies that the sensitivity of impact models designed for either scale to climate variability and change is comparable. In this study, we compare hydrological changes simulated by 9 global and 9 regional hydrological models (HM) for 11 large river basins in all continents under reference and scenario conditions. The foci are on model validation runs, sensitivity of annual discharge to climate variability in the reference period, and sensitivity of the long-term average monthly seasonal dynamics to climate change. One major result is that the global models, mostly not calibrated against observations, often show a considerable bias in mean monthly discharge, whereas regional models show a much better reproduction of reference conditions. However, the sensitivity of two HM ensembles to climate variability is in general similar. The simulated climate change impacts in terms of long-term average monthly dynamics evaluated for HM ensemble medians and spreads show that the medians are to a certain extent comparable in some cases with distinct differences in others, and the spreads related to global models are mostly notably larger. Summarizing, this implies that global HMs are useful tools when looking at large-scale impacts of climate change and variability, but whenever impacts for a specific river basin or region are of interest, e.g. for complex water management applications, the regional-scale models validated against observed discharge should be used.

  4. The regulation of climate engineering

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reynolds, J.L.

    2011-01-01

    Intentional interventions in global physical, chemical, and biological systems on a massive scale are receiving increasing attention in hopes of reducing the threat of anthropogenic climate change. Known as climate engineering, or geoengineering, research is moving forward, but regulation remains

  5. Climate Impacts on Human Health

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... more rapidly in warm environments. These diseases can cause gastrointestinal distress and, in severe cases, death. [1] Practices to safeguard food can help avoid these illnesses even as the climate changes. Climate change will have a variety of impacts ...

  6. Climate change and disaster management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Brien, Geoff; O'Keefe, Phil; Rose, Joanne; Wisner, Ben

    2006-03-01

    Climate change, although a natural phenomenon, is accelerated by human activities. Disaster policy response to climate change is dependent on a number of factors, such as readiness to accept the reality of climate change, institutions and capacity, as well as willingness to embed climate change risk assessment and management in development strategies. These conditions do not yet exist universally. A focus that neglects to enhance capacity-building and resilience as a prerequisite for managing climate change risks will, in all likelihood, do little to reduce vulnerability to those risks. Reducing vulnerability is a key aspect of reducing climate change risk. To do so requires a new approach to climate change risk and a change in institutional structures and relationships. A focus on development that neglects to enhance governance and resilience as a prerequisite for managing climate change risks will, in all likelihood, do little to reduce vulnerability to those risks.

  7. [Organizational climate and burnout syndrome].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lubrańska, Anna

    2011-01-01

    The paper addresses the issue of organizational climate and burnout syndrome. It has been assumed that burnout syndrome is dependent on work climate (organizational climate), therefore, two concepts were analyzed: by D. Kolb (organizational climate) and by Ch. Maslach (burnout syndrome). The research involved 239 persons (122 woman, 117 men), aged 21-66. In the study Maslach Burnout Inventory (MBI) and Inventory of Organizational Climate were used. The results of statistical methods (correlation analysis, one-variable analysis of variance and regression analysis) evidenced a strong relationship between organizational climate and burnout dimension. As depicted by the results, there are important differences in the level of burnout between the study participants who work in different types of organizational climate. The results of the statistical analyses indicate that the organizational climate determines burnout syndrome. Therefore, creating supportive conditions at the workplace might reduce the risk of burnout.

  8. Climate Leadership Awards and Conference

    Science.gov (United States)

    The seventh annual Climate Leadership Awards Dinner will be held during the 2018 Climate Leadership Conference; the event publicly recognize individuals and organizations for their outstanding leadership in reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

  9. Climate Change and Water Tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA tools and workbooks guide users to mitigate and adapt to climate change impacts. Various tools can help manage risks, others can visualize climate projections in maps. Included are comprehensive tool kits hosted by other federal agencies.

  10. Climate Change and Water Training

    Science.gov (United States)

    To take action on climate impacts, practitioners must understand how climate change will effect their region, and the country. Training provided here by EPA and partners allow users to better grasp the issues and make decisions based on current science.

  11. The Key to Climate Cooperation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    Climate change talks should be based on a dual-track negotiating mechanism Delegates from nearly 190 countries gathered in the Germancity of Bonn for a newround of UN climate change talks on May 31—the first round

  12. Volcanic Eruptions and Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robock, A.

    2012-12-01

    Large volcanic eruptions inject sulfur gases into the stratosphere, which convert to sulfate aerosols with an e-folding residence time of about one year. The radiative and chemical effects of these aerosol clouds produce responses in the climate system. Observations and numerical models of the climate system show that volcanic eruptions produce global cooling and were the dominant natural cause of climate change for the past millennium, on timescales from annual to century. Major tropical eruptions produce winter warming of Northern Hemisphere continents for one or two years, while high latitude eruptions in the Northern Hemisphere weaken the Asian and African summer monsoon. The Toba supereruption 74,000 years ago caused very large climate changes, affecting human evolution. However, the effects did not last long enough to produce widespread glaciation. An episode of four large decadally-spaced eruptions at the end of the 13th century C.E. started the Little Ice Age. Since the Mt. Pinatubo eruption in the Philippines in 1991, there have been no large eruptions that affected climate, but the cumulative effects of small eruptions over the past decade had a small effect on global temperature trends. The June 13, 2011 Nabro eruption in Eritrea produced the largest stratospheric aerosol cloud since Pinatubo, and the most of the sulfur entered the stratosphere not by direct injection, but by slow lofting in the Asian summer monsoon circulation. Volcanic eruptions warn us that while stratospheric geoengineering could cool the surface, reducing ice melt and sea level rise, producing pretty sunsets, and increasing the CO2 sink, it could also reduce summer monsoon precipitation, destroy ozone, allowing more harmful UV at the surface, produce rapid warming when stopped, make the sky white, reduce solar power, perturb the ecology with more diffuse radiation, damage airplanes flying in the stratosphere, degrade astronomical observations, affect remote sensing, and affect

  13. Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn

    The absence of a global agreement on the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions calls for adaptation to climate change. The associated paper explains the need for climate change adaptation of the building stock and suggests a pattern for a strategic approach to how to reach the climate change...... adaptation needed. Issues that must be addressed in case a strategic approach is not developed, as the building sector is continuously investing in measures to adapt to climate change as impacts emerge are described....

  14. Climate change regional review: Russia

    OpenAIRE

    Sharmina, Maria; Anderson, Kevin; Bows-Larkin, Alice

    2013-01-01

    With climate change, an increasingly important focus of scientific and policy discourse, the Russian government has aimed to position the country as one of the leaders of the global process for addressing climate change. This article reviews a breadth of literature to analyze the politico-economic situation in Russia with regard to international climate change negotiations, related domestic policies, societal attitudes, and climatic change impacts on Russia's territory. The analysis demonstra...

  15. Feedbacks, climate sensitivity, and the limits of linear models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rugenstein, M.; Knutti, R.

    2015-12-01

    The term "feedback" is used ubiquitously in climate research, but implies varied meanings in different contexts. From a specific process that locally affects a quantity, to a formal framework that attempts to determine a global response to a forcing, researchers use this term to separate, simplify, and quantify parts of the complex Earth system. We combine large (>120 member) ensemble GCM and EMIC step forcing simulations over a broad range of forcing levels with a historical and educational perspective to organize existing ideas around feedbacks and linear forcing-feedback models. With a new method overcoming internal variability and initial condition problems we quantify the non-constancy of the climate feedback parameter. Our results suggest a strong state- and forcing-dependency of feedbacks, which is not considered appropriately in many studies. A non-constant feedback factor likely explains some of the differences in estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity from different methods and types of data. We discuss implications for the definition of the forcing term and its various adjustments. Clarifying the value and applicability of the linear forcing feedback framework and a better quantification of feedbacks on various timescales and spatial scales remains a high priority in order to better understand past and predict future changes in the climate system.

  16. Climate Variability and Household Adaptation Strategies in Southern Ethiopia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wassie Berhanu

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the determinants and implied economic impacts of climate change adaptation strategies in the context of traditional pastoralism. It is based on econometric analysis of survey data generated from household level interviews in southern Ethiopian rangelands. Pastoralists’ perception of climate change in the region is found to be very consistent with the actually recorded trends of increased temperature and the evident secular declines in precipitation. Not only long-term declines, trends in the region’s rainfall also appear to have taken a shift towards the direction of more unpredictability. Pastoralist adaptation response strategies broadly involve adjustments in pastoral practices and shifts to non-pastoral livelihoods. Results of the estimated models confirm that pastoral mobility is still quite essential in the present context of climate-induced household vulnerabilities. Increased mobility and diversification of pastoral herd portfolios in favor of a drought-tolerant species (camel are found to be positively associated with pastoral household net income. A policy stance that ignores the detrimental impacts of the currently pervasive private rangeland enclosures or intends to hasten pastoralist sedentarization in the area is simply untenable in the present context of climate-induced risks and pastoral livelihood vulnerability.

  17. On the Vulnerability of Water Limited Ecosystems to Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kelly K. Caylor

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Society is facing growing environmental problems that require new research efforts to understand the way ecosystems operate and survive, and their mutual relationships with the hydrologic cycle. In this respect, ecohydrology suggests a renewed interdisciplinary approach that aims to provide a better comprehension of the effects of climatic changes on terrestrial ecosystems. With this aim, a coupled hydrological/ecological model is adopted to describe simultaneously vegetation pattern evolution and hydrological water budget at the basin scale using as test site the Upper Rio Salado basin (Sevilleta, NM, USA. The hydrological analyses have been carried out using a recently formulated framework for the water balance at the daily level linked with a spatial model for the description of the spatial organization of vegetation. This enables quantitatively assessing the effects on soil water availability on future climatic scenarios. Results highlighted that the relationship between climatic forcing (water availability and vegetation patterns is strongly non-linear. This implies, under some specific conditions which depend on the ecosystem characteristics, small changes in climatic conditions may produce significant transformation of the vegetation patterns.

  18. Arctic Climate Variability and Trends from Satellite Observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xuanji Wang

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Arctic climate has been changing rapidly since the 1980s. This work shows distinctly different patterns of change in winter, spring, and summer for cloud fraction and surface temperature. Satellite observations over 1982–2004 have shown that the Arctic has warmed up and become cloudier in spring and summer, but cooled down and become less cloudy in winter. The annual mean surface temperature has increased at a rate of 0.34°C per decade. The decadal rates of cloud fraction trends are −3.4%, 2.3%, and 0.5% in winter, spring, and summer, respectively. Correspondingly, annually averaged surface albedo has decreased at a decadal rate of −3.2%. On the annual average, the trend of cloud forcing at the surface is −2.11 W/m2 per decade, indicating a damping effect on the surface warming by clouds. The decreasing sea ice albedo and surface warming tend to modulate cloud radiative cooling effect in spring and summer. Arctic sea ice has also declined substantially with decadal rates of −8%, −5%, and −15% in sea ice extent, thickness, and volume, respectively. Significant correlations between surface temperature anomalies and climate indices, especially the Arctic Oscillation (AO index, exist over some areas, implying linkages between global climate change and Arctic climate change.

  19. Climate change impacts are sensitive to the concentration stabilization path

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Brian C.; Oppenheimer, Michael

    2004-01-01

    Analysis of policies to achieve the long-term objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, stabilizing concentrations of greenhouse gases at levels that avoid “dangerous” climate changes, must discriminate among the infinite number of emission and concentration trajectories that yield the same final concentration. Considerable attention has been devoted to path-dependent mitigation costs, generally for CO2 alone, but not to the differential climate change impacts implied by alternative trajectories. Here, we derive pathways leading to stabilization of equivalent CO2 concentration (including radiative forcing effects of all significant trace gases and aerosols) with a range of transient behavior before stabilization, including temporary overshoot of the final value. We compare resulting climate changes to the sensitivity of representative geophysical and ecological systems. Based on the limited available information, some physical and ecological systems appear to be quite sensitive to the details of the approach to stabilization. The likelihood of occurrence of impacts that might be considered dangerous increases under trajectories that delay emissions reduction or overshoot the final concentration. PMID:15545606

  20. Effects of climatic change on the Thornthwaite moisture index

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCabe, Gregory J.; Wolock, David M.; Hay, Lauren E.; Ayers, Mark A.

    1990-01-01

    The Thornthwaite moisture index is a useful indicator of the supply of water (precipitation) in an area relative to the demand for water under prevailing climatic conditions (potential evapotranspiration). This study examines the effects of changes in climate (temperature and precipitation) on the Thornthwaite moisture index in the conterminous United States. Estimates of changes in mean annual temperature and precipitation for doubled-atmospheric CO2 conditions derived from three general circulation models (GCMs) are used to study the response of the moisture index under steady-state doubled-CO2 conditions. Results indicate that temperature and precipitation changes under doubled-CO2 conditions generally will cause the Thornthwaite moisture index to decrease, implying a drier climate for most of the United States. The pattern of expected decrease is consistent among the three GCMs, although the amount of decrease depends on which GCM climatic-change scenario is used. Results also suggest that changes in the moisture index are related mainly to changes in the mean annual potential evapotranspiration as a result of changes in the mean annual temperature, rather than to changes in the mean annual precipitation.