WorldWideScience

Sample records for impact forecasting environment

  1. Economic impact analysis of load forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ranaweera, D.K.; Karady, G.G.; Farmer, R.G.

    1997-01-01

    Short term load forecasting is an essential function in electric power system operations and planning. Forecasts are needed for a variety of utility activities such as generation scheduling, scheduling of fuel purchases, maintenance scheduling and security analysis. Depending on power system characteristics, significant forecasting errors can lead to either excessively conservative scheduling or very marginal scheduling. Either can induce heavy economic penalties. This paper examines the economic impact of inaccurate load forecasts. Monte Carlo simulations were used to study the effect of different load forecasting accuracy. Investigations into the effect of improving the daily peak load forecasts, effect of different seasons of the year and effect of utilization factors are presented

  2. Hydrocarbon Rocket Technology Impact Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stuber, Eric; Prasadh, Nishant; Edwards, Stephen; Mavris, Dimitri N.

    2012-01-01

    Ever since the Apollo program ended, the development of launch propulsion systems in the US has fallen drastically, with only two new booster engine developments, the SSME and the RS-68, occurring in the past few decades.1 In recent years, however, there has been an increased interest in pursuing more effective launch propulsion technologies in the U.S., exemplified by the NASA Office of the Chief Technologist s inclusion of Launch Propulsion Systems as the first technological area in the Space Technology Roadmaps2. One area of particular interest to both government agencies and commercial entities has been the development of hydrocarbon engines; NASA and the Air Force Research Lab3 have expressed interest in the use of hydrocarbon fuels for their respective SLS Booster and Reusable Booster System concepts, and two major commercially-developed launch vehicles SpaceX s Falcon 9 and Orbital Sciences Antares feature engines that use RP-1 kerosene fuel. Compared to engines powered by liquid hydrogen, hydrocarbon-fueled engines have a greater propellant density (usually resulting in a lighter overall engine), produce greater propulsive force, possess easier fuel handling and loading, and for reusable vehicle concepts can provide a shorter turnaround time between launches. These benefits suggest that a hydrocarbon-fueled launch vehicle would allow for a cheap and frequent means of access to space.1 However, the time and money required for the development of a new engine still presents a major challenge. Long and costly design, development, testing and evaluation (DDT&E) programs underscore the importance of identifying critical technologies and prioritizing investment efforts. Trade studies must be performed on engine concepts examining the affordability, operability, and reliability of each concept, and quantifying the impacts of proposed technologies. These studies can be performed through use of the Technology Impact Forecasting (TIF) method. The Technology Impact

  3. Forecasting the space weather impact

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Crosby, N. B.; Veronig, A.; Robbrecht, E.

    2012-01-01

    The FP7 COronal Mass Ejections and Solar Energetic Particles (COMESEP) project is developing tools for forecasting geomagnetic storms and solar energetic particle (SEP) radiation storms. By analysis of historical data, complemented by the extensive data coverage of solar cycle 23, the key ingredi...

  4. Forecasting systemic impact in financial networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hautsch, N.; Schaumburg, J.; Schienle, M.

    2014-01-01

    We propose a methodology for forecasting the systemic impact of financial institutions in interconnected systems. Utilizing a five-year sample including the 2008/9 financial crisis, we demonstrate how the approach can be used for the timely systemic risk monitoring of large European banks and

  5. An impact analysis of forecasting methods and forecasting parameters on bullwhip effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silitonga, R. Y. H.; Jelly, N.

    2018-04-01

    Bullwhip effect is an increase of variance of demand fluctuation from downstream to upstream of supply chain. Forecasting methods and forecasting parameters were recognized as some factors that affect bullwhip phenomena. To study these factors, we can develop simulations. There are several ways to simulate bullwhip effect in previous studies, such as mathematical equation modelling, information control modelling, computer program, and many more. In this study a spreadsheet program named Bullwhip Explorer was used to simulate bullwhip effect. Several scenarios were developed to show the change in bullwhip effect ratio because of the difference in forecasting methods and forecasting parameters. Forecasting methods used were mean demand, moving average, exponential smoothing, demand signalling, and minimum expected mean squared error. Forecasting parameters were moving average period, smoothing parameter, signalling factor, and safety stock factor. It showed that decreasing moving average period, increasing smoothing parameter, increasing signalling factor can create bigger bullwhip effect ratio. Meanwhile, safety stock factor had no impact to bullwhip effect.

  6. Comparing Forecasts of the Global Impacts of Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mendelsohn, R.; Williams, L.

    2004-01-01

    This paper utilizes the predictions of several Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models and the Global Impact Model to create forecasts of the global market impacts from climate change. The forecasts of market impacts in 2100 vary considerably depending on climate scenarios and climate impact sensitivity. The models do concur that tropical nations will be hurt, temperate nations will be barely affected, and high latitude nations will benefit. Although the size of these effects varies a great deal across models, the beneficial and harmful effects are offsetting, so that the net impact on the globe is relatively small in almost all outcomes. Looking only at market impacts, the forecasts suggest that while the global net benefits of abatement are small, the distribution of damages suggests a large equity problem that could be addressed through a compensation program. The large uncertainty surrounding these forecasts further suggests that continued monitoring of both the climate and impacts is worthwhile

  7. Meteoroid Environment Modeling: the Meteoroid Engineering Model and Shower Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moorhead, Althea V.

    2017-01-01

    The meteoroid environment is often divided conceptually into meteor showers plus a sporadic background component. The sporadic complex poses the bulk of the risk to spacecraft, but showers can produce significant short-term enhancements of the meteoroid flux. The Meteoroid Environment Office (MEO) has produced two environment models to handle these cases: the Meteoroid Engineering Model (MEM) and an annual meteor shower forecast. Both MEM and the forecast are used by multiple manned spaceflight projects in their meteoroid risk evaluation, and both tools are being revised to incorporate recent meteor velocity, density, and timing measurements. MEM describes the sporadic meteoroid complex and calculates the flux, speed, and directionality of the meteoroid environment relative to a user-supplied spacecraft trajectory, taking the spacecraft's motion into account. MEM is valid in the inner solar system and offers near-Earth and cis-lunar environments. While the current version of MEM offers a nominal meteoroid environment corresponding to a single meteoroid bulk density, the next version of MEMR3 will offer both flux uncertainties and a density distribution in addition to a revised near-Earth environment. We have updated the near-Earth meteor speed distribution and have made the first determination of uncertainty in this distribution. We have also derived a meteor density distribution from the work of Kikwaya et al. (2011). The annual meteor shower forecast takes the form of a report and data tables that can be used in conjunction with an existing MEM assessment. Fluxes are typically quoted to a constant limiting kinetic energy in order to comport with commonly used ballistic limit equations. For the 2017 annual forecast, the MEO substantially revised the list of showers and their characteristics using 14 years of meteor flux measurements from the Canadian Meteor Orbit Radar (CMOR). Defunct or insignificant showers were removed and the temporal profiles of many showers

  8. The Impact of Forecasting on Strategic Planning and Decision Making

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The Impact of Forecasting on Strategic Planning and Decision Making: An Exploratory ... lead to the failure to achieve projected performance. ... the use of multiple regression analysis model to forecast the stock market activities of each sector ... making, and that these decisions must be congruent with the company strategy.

  9. Addressing forecast uncertainty impact on CSP annual performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferretti, Fabio; Hogendijk, Christopher; Aga, Vipluv; Ehrsam, Andreas

    2017-06-01

    This work analyzes the impact of weather forecast uncertainty on the annual performance of a Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) plant. Forecast time series has been produced by a commercial forecast provider using the technique of hindcasting for the full year 2011 in hourly resolution for Ouarzazate, Morocco. Impact of forecast uncertainty has been measured on three case studies, representing typical tariff schemes observed in recent CSP projects plus a spot market price scenario. The analysis has been carried out using an annual performance model and a standard dispatch optimization algorithm based on dynamic programming. The dispatch optimizer has been demonstrated to be a key requisite to maximize the annual revenues depending on the price scenario, harvesting the maximum potential out of the CSP plant. Forecasting uncertainty affects the revenue enhancement outcome of a dispatch optimizer depending on the error level and the price function. Results show that forecasting accuracy of direct solar irradiance (DNI) is important to make best use of an optimized dispatch but also that a higher number of calculation updates can partially compensate this uncertainty. Improvement in revenues can be significant depending on the price profile and the optimal operation strategy. Pathways to achieve better performance are presented by having more updates both by repeatedly generating new optimized trajectories but also more often updating weather forecasts. This study shows the importance of working on DNI weather forecasting for revenue enhancement as well as selecting weather services that can provide multiple updates a day and probabilistic forecast information.

  10. BUSEFL: The Boston University Space Environment Forecast Laboratory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Contos, A.R.; Sanchez, L.A.; Jorgensen, A.M.

    1996-01-01

    BUSEFL (Boston University Space Environment Forecast Laboratory) is a comprehensive, integrated project to address the issues and implications of space weather forecasting. An important goal of the BUSEFL mission is to serve as a testing ground for space weather algorithms and operational procedures. One such algorithm is the Magnetospheric Specification and Forecast Model (MSFM), which may be implemented in possible future space weather prediction centers. Boston University Student-satellite for Applications and Training (BUSAT), the satellite component of BUSEFL, will incorporate four experiments designed to measure (1) the earth close-quote s magnetic field, (2) distribution of energetic electrons trapped in the earth close-quote s radiation belts, (3) the mass and charge composition of the ion fluxes along the magnetic field lines and (4) the auroral forms at the foot of the field line in the auroral zones. Data from these experiments will be integrated into a ground system to evaluate space weather prediction codes. Data from the BUSEFL mission will be available to the scientific community and the public through media such as the World Wide Web (WWW). copyright 1996 American Institute of Physics

  11. Forecasting transportation impacts upon land use

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wendt, P F [ed.

    1976-01-01

    Chapter titles include: introduction and overview; national and regional econometric models; growth and change in the Georgia regional economies; a Delphi approach to land use forecasting; land suitability and land use analysis; the interaction of transportation and land use; and, summary and conclusions. Lists of tables and figures are also included. (JGB)

  12. Environment and environmental impacts

    OpenAIRE

    Rejane de Fátima Victor Vasconcelos

    2009-01-01

    The article shows what can be environmental impacts and how those happen, both by the actions made by human kind and by natural disasters. Another concern of the research is the unstoppable incident of the natural resources destruction, result f the globalization actions and the economy, and that the environment impacts have happen in every direction, independently of the geographic scale, harming the life in earth, without giving importance who is the target. The article made reference to in...

  13. Impact of onsite solar generation on system load demand forecast

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaur, Amanpreet; Pedro, Hugo T.C.; Coimbra, Carlos F.M.

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • We showed the impact onsite solar generation on system demand load forecast. • Forecast performance degrades by 9% and 3% for 1 h and 15 min forecast horizons. • Error distribution for onsite case is best characterized as t-distribution. • Relation between error, solar penetration and solar variability is characterized. - Abstract: Net energy metering tariffs have encouraged the growth of solar PV in the distribution grid. The additional variability associated with weather-dependent renewable energy creates new challenges for power system operators that must maintain and operate ancillary services to balance the grid. To deal with these issues power operators mostly rely on demand load forecasts. Electric load forecast has been used in power industry for a long time and there are several well established load forecasting models. But the performance of these models for future scenario of high renewable energy penetration is unclear. In this work, the impact of onsite solar power generation on the demand load forecast is analyzed for a community that meets between 10% and 15% of its annual power demand and 3–54% of its daily power demand from a solar power plant. Short-Term Load Forecasts (STLF) using persistence, machine learning and regression-based forecasting models are presented for two cases: (1) high solar penetration and (2) no penetration. Results show that for 1-h and 15-min forecasts the accuracy of the models drops by 9% and 3% with high solar penetration. Statistical analysis of the forecast errors demonstrate that the error distribution is best characterized as a t-distribution for the high penetration scenario. Analysis of the error distribution as a function of daily solar penetration for different levels of variability revealed that the solar power variability drives the forecast error magnitude whereas increasing penetration level has a much smaller contribution. This work concludes that the demand forecast error distribution

  14. On the market impact of wind energy forecasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jonsson, Tryggvi; Pinson, Pierre; Madsen, Henrik

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents an analysis of how day-ahead electricity spot prices are affected by day-ahead wind power forecasts. Demonstration of this relationship is given as a test case for the Western Danish price area of the Nord Pool's Elspot market. Impact on the average price behaviour is investigated as well as that on the distributional properties of the price. By using a non-parametric regression model to assess the effects of wind power forecasts on the average behaviour, the non-linearities and time variations in the relationship are captured well and the effects are shown to be quite substantial. Furthermore, by evaluating the distributional properties of the spot prices under different scenarios, the impact of the wind power forecasts on the price distribution is proved to be considerable. The conditional price distribution is moreover shown to be non-Gaussian. This implies that forecasting models for electricity spot prices for which parameters are estimated by a least squares techniques will not have Gaussian residuals. Hence the widespread assumption of Gaussian residuals from electricity spot price models is shown to be inadequate for these model types. The revealed effects are likely to be observable and qualitatively similar in other day-ahead electricity markets significantly penetrated by wind power. (author)

  15. The impact of scatterometer wind data on global weather forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atlas, D.; Baker, W. E.; Kalnay, E.; Halem, M.; Woiceshyn, P. M.; Peteherych, S.

    1984-01-01

    The impact of SEASAT-A scatterometer (SASS) winds on coarse resolution atmospheric model forecasts was assessed. The scatterometer provides high resolution winds, but each wind can have up to four possible directions. One wind direction is correct; the remainder are ambiguous or "aliases'. In general, the effect of objectively dealiased-SASS data was found to be negligible in the Northern Hemisphere. In the Southern Hemisphere, the impact was larger and primarily beneficial when vertical temperature profile radiometer (VTPR) data was excluded. However, the inclusion of VTPR data eliminates the positive impact, indicating some redundancy between the two data sets.

  16. Hydrodynamics and Water Quality forecasting over a Cloud Computing environment: INDIGO-DataCloud

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguilar Gómez, Fernando; de Lucas, Jesús Marco; García, Daniel; Monteoliva, Agustín

    2017-04-01

    Algae Bloom due to eutrophication is an extended problem for water reservoirs and lakes that impacts directly in water quality. It can create a dead zone that lacks enough oxygen to support life and it can also be human harmful, so it must be controlled in water masses for supplying, bathing or other uses. Hydrodynamic and Water Quality modelling can contribute to forecast the status of the water system in order to alert authorities before an algae bloom event occurs. It can be used to predict scenarios and find solutions to reduce the harmful impact of the blooms. High resolution models need to process a big amount of data using a robust enough computing infrastructure. INDIGO-DataCloud (https://www.indigo-datacloud.eu/) is an European Commission funded project that aims at developing a data and computing platform targeting scientific communities, deployable on multiple hardware and provisioned over hybrid (private or public) e-infrastructures. The project addresses the development of solutions for different Case Studies using different Cloud-based alternatives. In the first INDIGO software release, a set of components are ready to manage the deployment of services to perform N number of Delft3D simulations (for calibrating or scenario definition) over a Cloud Computing environment, using the Docker technology: TOSCA requirement description, Docker repository, Orchestrator, AAI (Authorization, Authentication) and OneData (Distributed Storage System). Moreover, the Future Gateway portal based on Liferay, provides an user-friendly interface where the user can configure the simulations. Due to the data approach of INDIGO, the developed solutions can contribute to manage the full data life cycle of a project, thanks to different tools to manage datasets or even metadata. Furthermore, the cloud environment contributes to provide a dynamic, scalable and easy-to-use framework for non-IT experts users. This framework is potentially capable to automatize the processing of

  17. Case studies of extended model-based flood forecasting: prediction of dike strength and flood impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stuparu, Dana; Bachmann, Daniel; Bogaard, Tom; Twigt, Daniel; Verkade, Jan; de Bruijn, Karin; de Leeuw, Annemargreet

    2017-04-01

    Flood forecasts, warning and emergency response are important components in flood risk management. Most flood forecasting systems use models to translate weather predictions to forecasted discharges or water levels. However, this information is often not sufficient for real time decisions. A sound understanding of the reliability of embankments and flood dynamics is needed to react timely and reduce the negative effects of the flood. Where are the weak points in the dike system? When, how much and where the water will flow? When and where is the greatest impact expected? Model-based flood impact forecasting tries to answer these questions by adding new dimensions to the existing forecasting systems by providing forecasted information about: (a) the dike strength during the event (reliability), (b) the flood extent in case of an overflow or a dike failure (flood spread) and (c) the assets at risk (impacts). This work presents three study-cases in which such a set-up is applied. Special features are highlighted. Forecasting of dike strength. The first study-case focusses on the forecast of dike strength in the Netherlands for the river Rhine branches Waal, Nederrijn and IJssel. A so-called reliability transformation is used to translate the predicted water levels at selected dike sections into failure probabilities during a flood event. The reliability of a dike section is defined by fragility curves - a summary of the dike strength conditional to the water level. The reliability information enhances the emergency management and inspections of embankments. Ensemble forecasting. The second study-case shows the setup of a flood impact forecasting system in Dumfries, Scotland. The existing forecasting system is extended with a 2D flood spreading model in combination with the Delft-FIAT impact model. Ensemble forecasts are used to make use of the uncertainty in the precipitation forecasts, which is useful to quantify the certainty of a forecasted flood event. From global

  18. Short-term residential load forecasting: Impact of calendar effects and forecast granularity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lusis, Peter; Khalilpour, Kaveh Rajab; Andrew, Lachlan

    2017-01-01

    forecasting for a single-customer or even down at an appliance level. Access to high resolution data from smart meters has enabled the research community to assess conventional load forecasting techniques and develop new forecasting strategies suitable for demand-side disaggregated loads. This paper studies...... how calendar effects, forecasting granularity and the length of the training set affect the accuracy of a day-ahead load forecast for residential customers. Root mean square error (RMSE) and normalized RMSE were used as forecast error metrics. Regression trees, neural networks, and support vector...... regression yielded similar average RMSE results, but statistical analysis showed that regression trees technique is significantly better. The use of historical load profiles with daily and weekly seasonality, combined with weather data, leaves the explicit calendar effects a very low predictive power...

  19. Forecasting with quantitative methods the impact of special events in time series

    OpenAIRE

    Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos

    2010-01-01

    Abstract Quantitative methods are very successful for producing baseline forecasts of time series; however these models fail to forecast neither the timing nor the impact of special events such as promotions or strikes. In most of the cases the timing of such events is not known so they are usually referred as shocks (economics) or special events (forecasting). Sometimes the timing of such events is known a priori (i.e. a future promotion); but even then the impact of the forthcom...

  20. AIRS Impact on the Analysis and Forecast Track of Tropical Cyclone Nargis in a Global Data Assimilation and Forecasting System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reale, O.; Lau, W.K.; Susskind, J.; Brin, E.; Liu, E.; Riishojgaard, L. P.; Rosenburg, R.; Fuentes, M.

    2009-01-01

    Tropical cyclones in the northern Indian Ocean pose serious challenges to operational weather forecasting systems, partly due to their shorter lifespan and more erratic track, compared to those in the Atlantic and the Pacific. Moreover, the automated analyses of cyclones over the northern Indian Ocean, produced by operational global data assimilation systems (DASs), are generally of inferior quality than in other basins. In this work it is shown that the assimilation of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) temperature retrievals under partial cloudy conditions can significantly impact the representation of the cyclone Nargis (which caused devastating loss of life in Myanmar in May 2008) in a global DAS. Forecasts produced from these improved analyses by a global model produce substantially smaller track errors. The impact of the assimilation of clear-sky radiances on the same DAS and forecasting system is positive, but smaller than the one obtained by ingestion of AIRS retrievals, possibly due to poorer coverage.

  1. Impact bias or underestimation? Outcome specifications predict the direction of affective forecasting errors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buechel, Eva C; Zhang, Jiao; Morewedge, Carey K

    2017-05-01

    Affective forecasts are used to anticipate the hedonic impact of future events and decide which events to pursue or avoid. We propose that because affective forecasters are more sensitive to outcome specifications of events than experiencers, the outcome specification values of an event, such as its duration, magnitude, probability, and psychological distance, can be used to predict the direction of affective forecasting errors: whether affective forecasters will overestimate or underestimate its hedonic impact. When specifications are positively correlated with the hedonic impact of an event, forecasters will overestimate the extent to which high specification values will intensify and low specification values will discount its impact. When outcome specifications are negatively correlated with its hedonic impact, forecasters will overestimate the extent to which low specification values will intensify and high specification values will discount its impact. These affective forecasting errors compound additively when multiple specifications are aligned in their impact: In Experiment 1, affective forecasters underestimated the hedonic impact of winning a smaller prize that they expected to win, and they overestimated the hedonic impact of winning a larger prize that they did not expect to win. In Experiment 2, affective forecasters underestimated the hedonic impact of a short unpleasant video about a temporally distant event, and they overestimated the hedonic impact of a long unpleasant video about a temporally near event. Experiments 3A and 3B showed that differences in the affect-richness of forecasted and experienced events underlie these differences in sensitivity to outcome specifications, therefore accounting for both the impact bias and its reversal. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  2. Impact of AIRS Thermodynamic Profile on Regional Weather Forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chou, Shih-Hung; Zavodsky, Brad; Jedlovee, Gary

    2010-01-01

    Prudent assimilation of AIRS thermodynamic profiles and quality indicators can improve initial conditions for regional weather models. AIRS-enhanced analysis has warmer and moister PBL. Forecasts with AIRS profiles are generally closer to NAM analyses than CNTL. Assimilation of AIRS leads to an overall QPF improvement in 6-h accumulated precipitation forecasts. Including AIRS profiles in assimilation process enhances the moist instability and produces stronger updrafts and a better precipitation forecast than the CNTL run.

  3. Physics-based Space Weather Forecasting in the Project for Solar-Terrestrial Environment Prediction (PSTEP) in Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kusano, K.

    2016-12-01

    Project for Solar-Terrestrial Environment Prediction (PSTEP) is a Japanese nation-wide research collaboration, which was recently launched. PSTEP aims to develop a synergistic interaction between predictive and scientific studies of the solar-terrestrial environment and to establish the basis for next-generation space weather forecasting using the state-of-the-art observation systems and the physics-based models. For this project, we coordinate the four research groups, which develop (1) the integration of space weather forecast system, (2) the physics-based solar storm prediction, (3) the predictive models of magnetosphere and ionosphere dynamics, and (4) the model of solar cycle activity and its impact on climate, respectively. In this project, we will build the coordinated physics-based model to answer the fundamental questions concerning the onset of solar eruptions and the mechanism for radiation belt dynamics in the Earth's magnetosphere. In this paper, we will show the strategy of PSTEP, and discuss about the role and prospect of the physics-based space weather forecasting system being developed by PSTEP.

  4. PROTONEGOCIATIONS - SALES FORECAST AND COMPETITIVE ENVIRONMENT ANALYSIS METHOD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lupu Adrian Gelu

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available Protonegotiation management, as part of successful negotiations of the organizations, is an issue for analysis extremely important for today’s managers in the confrontations generated by the changes of the environments in the period of transition to marke

  5. Short-term forecasting of individual household electricity loads with investigating impact of data resolution and forecast horizon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yildiz Baran

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Smart grid components such as smart home and battery energy management systems, high penetration of renewable energy systems, and demand response activities, require accurate electricity demand forecasts for the successful operation of the electricity distribution networks. For example, in order to optimize residential PV generation and electricity consumption and plan battery charge-discharge regimes by scheduling household appliances, forecasts need to target and be tailored to individual household electricity loads. The recent uptake of smart meters allows easier access to electricity readings at very fine resolutions; hence, it is possible to utilize this source of available data to create forecast models. In this paper, models which predominantly use smart meter data alongside with weather variables, or smart meter based models (SMBM, are implemented to forecast individual household loads. Well-known machine learning models such as artificial neural networks (ANN, support vector machines (SVM and Least-Square SVM are implemented within the SMBM framework and their performance is compared. The analysed household stock consists of 14 households from the state of New South Wales, Australia, with at least a year worth of 5 min. resolution data. In order for the results to be comparable between different households, our study first investigates household load profiles according to their volatility and reveals the relationship between load standard deviation and forecast performance. The analysis extends previous research by evaluating forecasts over four different data resolution; 5, 15, 30 and 60 min, each resolution analysed for four different horizons; 1, 6, 12 and 24 h ahead. Both, data resolution and forecast horizon, proved to have significant impact on the forecast performance and the obtained results provide important insights for the operation of various smart grid applications. Finally, it is shown that the load profile of some

  6. Short-term forecasting of individual household electricity loads with investigating impact of data resolution and forecast horizon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yildiz, Baran; Bilbao, Jose I.; Dore, Jonathon; Sproul, Alistair B.

    2018-05-01

    Smart grid components such as smart home and battery energy management systems, high penetration of renewable energy systems, and demand response activities, require accurate electricity demand forecasts for the successful operation of the electricity distribution networks. For example, in order to optimize residential PV generation and electricity consumption and plan battery charge-discharge regimes by scheduling household appliances, forecasts need to target and be tailored to individual household electricity loads. The recent uptake of smart meters allows easier access to electricity readings at very fine resolutions; hence, it is possible to utilize this source of available data to create forecast models. In this paper, models which predominantly use smart meter data alongside with weather variables, or smart meter based models (SMBM), are implemented to forecast individual household loads. Well-known machine learning models such as artificial neural networks (ANN), support vector machines (SVM) and Least-Square SVM are implemented within the SMBM framework and their performance is compared. The analysed household stock consists of 14 households from the state of New South Wales, Australia, with at least a year worth of 5 min. resolution data. In order for the results to be comparable between different households, our study first investigates household load profiles according to their volatility and reveals the relationship between load standard deviation and forecast performance. The analysis extends previous research by evaluating forecasts over four different data resolution; 5, 15, 30 and 60 min, each resolution analysed for four different horizons; 1, 6, 12 and 24 h ahead. Both, data resolution and forecast horizon, proved to have significant impact on the forecast performance and the obtained results provide important insights for the operation of various smart grid applications. Finally, it is shown that the load profile of some households vary

  7. Space plasma observations - observations of solar-terrestrial environment. Space Weather Forecast

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sagawa, Eiichi; Akioka, Maki

    1996-01-01

    The space environment becomes more important than ever before because of the expansion in the utilization of near-earth space and the increase in the vulnerability of large scale systems on the ground such as electrical power grids. The concept of the Space Weather Forecast program emerged from the accumulation of understanding on basic physical processes and from our activities as one of the regional warning centers of the international network of space environment services. (author)

  8. An Approach to Assess Observation Impact Based on Observation-Minus-Forecast Residuals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Todling, Ricardo

    2009-01-01

    Langland and Baker (2004) introduced an approach to assess the impact of observations on the forecasts. In that, a state-space aspect of the forecast is defined and a procedure is derived that relates changes in the aspect with changes in the initial conditions associated with the assimilation of observations) ultimately providing information about the impact of individual observations on the forecast. Some features of the approach are to be noted. The typical choice of forecast aspect employed in related works is rather arbitrary and leads to an incomplete assessment of the observing system. Furthermore, the state-space forecast aspect requires availability of a verification state that should ideally be uncorrelated with the forecast but in practice is not. Lastly, the approach involves the adjoint operator of the entire data assimilation system and as such it is constrained by the validity of this operator. In this presentation, an observation-space metric is used that, for a relatively time-homogeneous observing system, allows inferring observation impact on the forecast without some of the limitations above. Specifically, using observation-minus-forecast residuals leads to an approach with the following features: (i) it suggests a rather natural choice of forecast aspect, directly linked to the analysis system and providing full assessment of the observations; (ii) it naturally avoids introducing undesirable correlations in the forecast aspect by verifying against the observations; and (iii) it does not involve linearization and use of adjoints; therefore being applicable to any length of forecast. The state and observation-space approaches might be complementary to some degree, and involve different limitations and complexities. Illustrations are given using the NASA GEOS-5 data.

  9. The Impact of Forecasting on Strategic Planning and Decision Making

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Nekky Umera

    strategies for the investment manager in relations to Nigeria stock market ... Forecasting generally involves using information from the past to make decision ..... that both number of share in unit and number of deal in share cannot account.

  10. The Impact of Distributed Generation Systems in the Load Forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Benedicto Llorens, Juan Manuel

    2009-01-01

    Projecte fet en col.laboració amb l'Instituto Superior Tecnico. Universidade Técnica de Lisboa Load forecasting is vitally important for the electric industry in the deregulated economy. It has many applications including energy purchasing and generation, load switching, contract evaluation and infrastructure development. Because of this, a large variety of mathematical methods have been developed for load forecasting. In addition, the large-scale integration of wind power, now...

  11. Impact of TPP on environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krylov, D.A.

    2002-01-01

    Data on environmental impact and action on people health of enterprises of coal industry, and coal and natural gas TPP were analyzed. Volume of harmful substances discharge to the atmosphere on the replace of 30 billion m 3 of gas by the Kansko-Achinsk and Kuznetsk coal (for three variants of use) was calculated. The calculations presented that the drop of gas supply at TPP with the simultaneous increase of coal consumption could give rise to the significant growth of harmful discharges to the environment [ru

  12. Forecasting surface water flooding hazard and impact in real-time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, Steven J.; Moore, Robert J.; Wells, Steven C.

    2016-04-01

    Across the world, there is increasing demand for more robust and timely forecast and alert information on Surface Water Flooding (SWF). Within a UK context, the government Pitt Review into the Summer 2007 floods provided recommendations and impetus to improve the understanding of SWF risk for both off-line design and real-time forecasting and warning. Ongoing development and trial of an end-to-end real-time SWF system is being progressed through the recently formed Natural Hazards Partnership (NHP) with delivery to the Flood Forecasting Centre (FFC) providing coverage over England & Wales. The NHP is a unique forum that aims to deliver coordinated assessments, research and advice on natural hazards for governments and resilience communities across the UK. Within the NHP, a real-time Hazard Impact Model (HIM) framework has been developed that includes SWF as one of three hazards chosen for initial trialling. The trial SWF HIM system uses dynamic gridded surface-runoff estimates from the Grid-to-Grid (G2G) hydrological model to estimate the SWF hazard. National datasets on population, infrastructure, property and transport are available to assess impact severity for a given rarity of SWF hazard. Whilst the SWF hazard footprint is calculated in real-time using 1, 3 and 6 hour accumulations of G2G surface runoff on a 1 km grid, it has been possible to associate these with the effective rainfall design profiles (at 250m resolution) used as input to a detailed flood inundation model (JFlow+) run offline to produce hazard information resolved to 2m resolution. This information is contained in the updated Flood Map for Surface Water (uFMfSW) held by the Environment Agency. The national impact datasets can then be used with the uFMfSW SWF hazard dataset to assess impacts at this scale and severity levels of potential impact assigned at 1km and for aggregated county areas in real-time. The impact component is being led by the Health and Safety Laboratory (HSL) within the NHP

  13. Operational Earthquake Forecasting and Decision-Making in a Low-Probability Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jordan, T. H.; the International Commission on Earthquake ForecastingCivil Protection

    2011-12-01

    Operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) is the dissemination of authoritative information about the time dependence of seismic hazards to help communities prepare for potentially destructive earthquakes. Most previous work on the public utility of OEF has anticipated that forecasts would deliver high probabilities of large earthquakes; i.e., deterministic predictions with low error rates (false alarms and failures-to-predict) would be possible. This expectation has not been realized. An alternative to deterministic prediction is probabilistic forecasting based on empirical statistical models of aftershock triggering and seismic clustering. During periods of high seismic activity, short-term earthquake forecasts can attain prospective probability gains in excess of 100 relative to long-term forecasts. The utility of such information is by no means clear, however, because even with hundredfold increases, the probabilities of large earthquakes typically remain small, rarely exceeding a few percent over forecasting intervals of days or weeks. Civil protection agencies have been understandably cautious in implementing OEF in this sort of "low-probability environment." The need to move more quickly has been underscored by recent seismic crises, such as the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake sequence, in which an anxious public was confused by informal and inaccurate earthquake predictions. After the L'Aquila earthquake, the Italian Department of Civil Protection appointed an International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting (ICEF), which I chaired, to recommend guidelines for OEF utilization. Our report (Ann. Geophys., 54, 4, 2011; doi: 10.4401/ag-5350) concludes: (a) Public sources of information on short-term probabilities should be authoritative, scientific, open, and timely, and need to convey epistemic uncertainties. (b) Earthquake probabilities should be based on operationally qualified, regularly updated forecasting systems. (c) All operational models should be evaluated

  14. Impact of Public Aggregate Wind Forecasts on Electricity Market Outcomes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Exizidis, Lazaros; Kazempour, Jalal; Pinson, Pierre

    2017-01-01

    Following a call to foster a transparent and more competitive market, member states of the European transmission system operator are required to publish, among other information, aggregate wind power forecasts. The publication of the latter information is expected to benefit market participants...... by offering better knowledge of the market operation, leading subsequently to a more competitive energy market. Driven by the above regulation, we consider an equilibrium study to address how public information of aggregate wind power forecasts can potentially affect market results, social welfare as well...... as the profits of participating power producers. We investigate, therefore, a joint day-ahead energy and reserve auction, where producers offer their conventional power strategically based on a complementarity approach and their wind power at generation cost based on a forecast. In parallel, an iterative game...

  15. Low flows: mechanisms, forecasts and climate change impacts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Demirel, M.C.

    2014-01-01

    A research on low flows may seem controversial for a “wet” country protected by dykes and barriers. However, low flows in dry summers such as in 1976, 1985 and 2003 indicate that it may happen also in the Rhine basin. Improved medium-range and seasonal low fow forecasts are important as there is an

  16. Forecasting the Depletion of Transboundary Groundwater Resources in Hyper-Arid Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazzoni, A.; Heggy, E.

    2014-12-01

    The increase in awareness about the overexploitation of transboundary groundwater resources in hyper-arid environments that occurred in the last decades has highlighted the need to better map, monitor and manage these resources. Climate change, economic and population growth are driving forces that put more pressure on these fragile but fundamental resources. The aim of our approach is to address the question of whether or not groundwater resources, especially non-renewable, could serve as "backstop" water resource during water shortage periods that would probably affect the drylands in the upcoming 100 years. The high dependence of arid regions on these resources requires prudent management to be able to preserve their fossil aquifers and exploit them in a more sustainable way. We use the NetLogo environment with the FAO Aquastat Database to evaluate if the actual trends of extraction, consumption and use of non-renewable groundwater resources would remain feasible with the future climate change impacts and the population growth scenarios. The case studies selected are three: the Nubian Sandstone Aquifer System, shared between Egypt, Libya, Sudan and Chad; the North Western Sahara Aquifer System, with Algeria, Tunisia and Libya and the Umm Radhuma Dammam Aquifer, in its central part, shared between Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Bahrain. The reason these three fossil aquifers were selected are manifold. First, they represent properly transboundary non-renewable groundwater resources, with all the implications that derive from this, i.e. the necessity of scientific and socio-political cooperation among riparians, the importance of monitoring the status of shared resources and the need to elaborate a shared management policy. Furthermore, each country is characterized by hyper-arid climatic conditions, which will be exacerbated in the next century by climate change and lead to probable severe water shortage periods. Together with climate change, the rate of population

  17. Impact of modern agriculture on environment-3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arora, S.K.; Behl, R.K.; Tauro, P.; Joshi, U.N.

    1995-11-01

    The present volume titled Impact of Modern Agriculture on Environment is the outcome of the Proceedings of the Indo-German Conference on Impact of Modern Agriculture on Environment, a seminar organized by Haryana Agricultural University in 1993 and deals with certain areas of the environmental aspects of agriculture including its radiological impacts. Paper relevant to INIS is indexed separately

  18. Real-time forecasts of flood hazard and impact: some UK experiences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cole Steven J.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Major UK floods over the last decade have motivated significant technological and scientific advances in operational flood forecasting and warning. New joint forecasting centres between the national hydrological and meteorological operating agencies have been formed that issue a daily, national Flood Guidance Statement (FGS to the emergency response community. The FGS is based on a Flood Risk Matrix approach that is a function of potential impact severity and likelihood. It has driven an increased demand for robust, accurate and timely forecast and alert information on fluvial and surface water flooding along with impact assessments. The Grid-to-Grid (G2G distributed hydrological model has been employed across Britain at a 1km resolution to support the FGS. Novel methods for linking dynamic gridded estimates of river flow and surface runoff with more detailed offline flood risk maps have been developed to obtain real-time probabilistic forecasts of potential impacts, leading to operational trials. Examples of the national-scale G2G application are provided along with case studies of forecast flood impact from (i an operational Surface Water Flooding (SWF trial during the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games, (ii SWF developments under the Natural Hazards Partnership over England & Wales, and (iii fluvial applications in Scotland.

  19. AIRS Impact on Analysis and Forecast of an Extreme Rainfall Event (Indus River Valley 2010) with a Global Data Assimilation and Forecast System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reale, O.; Lau, W. K.; Susskind, J.; Rosenberg, R.

    2011-01-01

    A set of data assimilation and forecast experiments are performed with the NASA Global data assimilation and forecast system GEOS-5, to compare the impact of different approaches towards assimilation of Advanced Infrared Spectrometer (AIRS) data on the precipitation analysis and forecast skill. The event chosen is an extreme rainfall episode which occurred in late July 11 2010 in Pakistan, causing massive floods along the Indus River Valley. Results show that the assimilation of quality-controlled AIRS temperature retrievals obtained under partly cloudy conditions produce better precipitation analyses, and substantially better 7-day forecasts, than assimilation of clear-sky radiances. The improvement of precipitation forecast skill up to 7 day is very significant in the tropics, and is caused by an improved representation, attributed to cloudy retrieval assimilation, of two contributing mechanisms: the low-level moisture advection, and the concentration of moisture over the area in the days preceding the precipitation peak.

  20. Extreme Wind, Rain, Storm Surge, and Flooding: Why Hurricane Impacts are Difficult to Forecast?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, S. S.

    2017-12-01

    The 2017 hurricane season is estimated as one of the costliest in the U.S. history. The damage and devastation caused by Hurricane Harvey in Houston, Irma in Florida, and Maria in Puerto Rico are distinctly different in nature. The complexity of hurricane impacts from extreme wind, rain, storm surge, and flooding presents a major challenge in hurricane forecasting. A detailed comparison of the storm impacts from Harvey, Irma, and Maria will be presented using observations and state-of-the-art new generation coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean hurricane forecast model. The author will also provide an overview on what we can expect in terms of advancement in science and technology that can help improve hurricane impact forecast in the near future.

  1. The impact of implementing a demand forecasting system into a low-income country's supply chain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mueller, Leslie E; Haidari, Leila A; Wateska, Angela R; Phillips, Roslyn J; Schmitz, Michelle M; Connor, Diana L; Norman, Bryan A; Brown, Shawn T; Welling, Joel S; Lee, Bruce Y

    2016-07-12

    To evaluate the potential impact and value of applications (e.g. adjusting ordering levels, storage capacity, transportation capacity, distribution frequency) of data from demand forecasting systems implemented in a lower-income country's vaccine supply chain with different levels of population change to urban areas. Using our software, HERMES, we generated a detailed discrete event simulation model of Niger's entire vaccine supply chain, including every refrigerator, freezer, transport, personnel, vaccine, cost, and location. We represented the introduction of a demand forecasting system to adjust vaccine ordering that could be implemented with increasing delivery frequencies and/or additions of cold chain equipment (storage and/or transportation) across the supply chain during varying degrees of population movement. Implementing demand forecasting system with increased storage and transport frequency increased the number of successfully administered vaccine doses and lowered the logistics cost per dose up to 34%. Implementing demand forecasting system without storage/transport increases actually decreased vaccine availability in certain circumstances. The potential maximum gains of a demand forecasting system may only be realized if the system is implemented to both augment the supply chain cold storage and transportation. Implementation may have some impact but, in certain circumstances, may hurt delivery. Therefore, implementation of demand forecasting systems with additional storage and transport may be the better approach. Significant decreases in the logistics cost per dose with more administered vaccines support investment in these forecasting systems. Demand forecasting systems have the potential to greatly improve vaccine demand fulfilment, and decrease logistics cost/dose when implemented with storage and transportation increases. Simulation modeling can demonstrate the potential health and economic benefits of supply chain improvements. Copyright

  2. The use of economic forecasts in Danish economic policy, with special emphasis on energy and the environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nielsen, Lise

    1998-01-01

    This article discusses the use of economic forecasts in Danish economic policy, with special emphasis on energy and the environment. Two different approaches have been used to forecast energy consumption and its effects on environment in Denmark and other countries. These are the macro economic and the technical approaches. The technical approach is based on technical expertise related to energy production and energy consumption, and the article asks whether the forecasts produced by this approach are superior to macro economic forecasts of energy consumption. This question is interesting because the implications for policy resulting from the two approaches seem to be different. The analysis may have relevance to other areas outside the main economic field. (au) 22 refs

  3. The impact of wind forecast errors on the efficiency of the Ontario electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ng, H.

    2008-01-01

    Ontario's Independent System Operator (IESO) is currently involved in a number of wind projects in the province, and has developed both a resource commitment and dispatch timeline in relation to increased wind power penetration in the Ontario electricity grid. This presentation discussed the impacts of wind forecast errors on the province's electricity market. Day-ahead planning is used to commit fossil fuels and gas resources, while 3-hours ahead planning is used to commit generation in real time. Inter-ties are committed 1 hour ahead of dispatch. Over-forecasts for wind can cause market prices to increase in real-time, or cause markets to miss opportunities to schedule cheaper imports. The inefficient scheduling caused by overforecasts can also lead to exports not being purchases at high enough prices. Under-forecasts can cause market prices to decrease, and may cause imports to be scheduled that would not have been economic at lower prices. The scheduling difficulties related to under-forecasting can cause markets to miss opportunities to schedule efficient exports. Wind facility forecast errors typically improve closer to real-time. One-hour ahead wind forecast errors can reach approximately 12 per cent. The annual costs of overforecasting are under $200,000. Underforecasting costs are usually less than $30,000. The costs of the wind forecasting inefficiencies are relatively small in the $10 billion electricity market. It was concluded that system operators will continue to track forecast errors and inefficiencies as wind power capacity in the electric power industry increases. tabs., figs

  4. What Do Experts Know About Forecasting Journal Quality? A Comparison with ISI Research Impact in Finance?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractExperts possess knowledge and information that are not publicly available. The paper is concerned with forecasting academic journal quality and research impact using a survey of international experts from a national project on ranking academic finance journals in Taiwan. A comparison is

  5. What Do Experts Know About Forecasting Journal Quality? A Comparison with ISI Research Impact in Finance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractExperts possess knowledge and information that are not publicly available. The paper is concerned with forecasting academic journal quality and research impact using a survey of international experts from a national project on ranking academic finance journals in Taiwan. A comparison is

  6. The Impact of Jumps and Leverage in Forecasting Co-Volatility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M. Asai (Manabu); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2015-01-01

    markdownabstract__Abstract__ The paper investigates the impact of jumps in forecasting co-volatility, accommodating leverage effects. We modify the jump-robust two time scale covariance estimator of Boudt and Zhang (2013)such that the estimated matrix is positive definite. Using this approach we

  7. The Impact of Jumps and Leverage in Forecasting Co-Volatility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M. Asai (Manabu); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2015-01-01

    markdownabstract__Abstract__ The paper investigates the impact of jumps in forecasting co-volatility, accommodating leverage effects. We modify the jump-robust two time scale covariance estimator of Boudt and Zhang (2013) such that the estimated matrix is positive definite. Using this

  8. Addressing model error through atmospheric stochastic physical parametrizations: impact on the coupled ECMWF seasonal forecasting system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weisheimer, Antje; Corti, Susanna; Palmer, Tim; Vitart, Frederic

    2014-01-01

    The finite resolution of general circulation models of the coupled atmosphere–ocean system and the effects of sub-grid-scale variability present a major source of uncertainty in model simulations on all time scales. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts has been at the forefront of developing new approaches to account for these uncertainties. In particular, the stochastically perturbed physical tendency scheme and the stochastically perturbed backscatter algorithm for the atmosphere are now used routinely for global numerical weather prediction. The European Centre also performs long-range predictions of the coupled atmosphere–ocean climate system in operational forecast mode, and the latest seasonal forecasting system—System 4—has the stochastically perturbed tendency and backscatter schemes implemented in a similar way to that for the medium-range weather forecasts. Here, we present results of the impact of these schemes in System 4 by contrasting the operational performance on seasonal time scales during the retrospective forecast period 1981–2010 with comparable simulations that do not account for the representation of model uncertainty. We find that the stochastic tendency perturbation schemes helped to reduce excessively strong convective activity especially over the Maritime Continent and the tropical Western Pacific, leading to reduced biases of the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), cloud cover, precipitation and near-surface winds. Positive impact was also found for the statistics of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), showing an increase in the frequencies and amplitudes of MJO events. Further, the errors of El Niño southern oscillation forecasts become smaller, whereas increases in ensemble spread lead to a better calibrated system if the stochastic tendency is activated. The backscatter scheme has overall neutral impact. Finally, evidence for noise-activated regime transitions has been found in a cluster analysis of mid

  9. Tax-Credit Scholarships in Nebraska: Forecasting the Fiscal Impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gottlob, Brian

    2010-01-01

    This study seeks to inform the debate over a proposal in Nebraska to give tax credits for contributions to organizations that provide scholarships to K-12 private schools. The study constructs a model to determine the fiscal impact of tax-credit scholarships on the state and on local school districts. The author estimates the impact that…

  10. Forecast Based Financing for Managing Weather and Climate Risks to Reduce Potential Disaster Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arrighi, J.

    2017-12-01

    There is a critical window of time to reduce potential impacts of a disaster after a forecast for heightened risk is issued and before an extreme event occurs. The concept of Forecast-based Financing focuses on this window of opportunity. Through advanced preparation during system set-up, tailored methodologies are used to 1) analyze a range of potential extreme event forecasts, 2) identify emergency preparedness measures that can be taken when factoring in forecast lead time and inherent uncertainty and 3) develop standard operating procedures that are agreed on and tied to guaranteed funding sources to facilitate emergency measures led by the Red Cross or government actors when preparedness measures are triggered. This presentation will focus on a broad overview of the current state of theory and approaches used in developing a forecast-based financing systems - with a specific focus on hydrologic events, case studies of success and challenges in various contexts where this approach is being piloted, as well as what is on the horizon to be further explored and developed from a research perspective as the application of this approach continues to expand.

  11. Financial impact of errors in business forecasting: a comparative study of linear models and neural networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudimar Pereira da Veiga

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available The importance of demand forecasting as a management tool is a well documented issue. However, it is difficult to measure costs generated by forecasting errors and to find a model that assimilate the detailed operation of each company adequately. In general, when linear models fail in the forecasting process, more complex nonlinear models are considered. Although some studies comparing traditional models and neural networks have been conducted in the literature, the conclusions are usually contradictory. In this sense, the objective was to compare the accuracy of linear methods and neural networks with the current method used by the company. The results of this analysis also served as input to evaluate influence of errors in demand forecasting on the financial performance of the company. The study was based on historical data from five groups of food products, from 2004 to 2008. In general, one can affirm that all models tested presented good results (much better than the current forecasting method used, with mean absolute percent error (MAPE around 10%. The total financial impact for the company was 6,05% on annual sales.

  12. Forecasting inflation based on the consumer price index, taking into account the impact of seasonal factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. K. Sapova

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The consumer price index is a key indicator of the inflation level in Russia. It is important for the Central Bank and Government in decision-making process. There is a strong need for high-quality analysis and accurate forecast of this index. Modelling and forecasting of consumer price index as a key indicator of inflation are relevant issues in current macroeconomic conditions. The article is dedicated to development of quality short-term forecast of consumer inflation level, with the impact of seasonal factor. Two classes of models (vector autoregression and time series models are considered. It was shown that vector autoregression model of the dependency between consumer price index and nominal effective exchange rate is worse for the proposes of inflation forecast then non-linear model with structural components and conventional heteroscedasticity. The practical significance of this work is that the developed approach to the forecasting of the consumer price index adjusted of seasonal factor can be very helpful for the purpose of proper assessment and regulation of inflation.

  13. Convective Mode and Mesoscale Heavy Rainfall Forecast Challenges during a High-Impact Weather Period along the Gulf Coast and Florida from 17-20 May 2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosart, L. F.; Wallace, B. C.

    2017-12-01

    Two high-impact convective storm forecast challenges occurred between 17-20 May 2016 during NOAA's Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecast Experiment (SFE) at the Storm Prediction Center. The first forecast challenge was 286 mm of unexpected record-breaking rain that fell on Vero Beach (VRB), Florida, between 1500 UTC 17 May and 0600 UTC 18 May, more than doubling the previous May daily rainfall record. The record rains in VRB occurred subsequent to the formation of a massive MCS over the central Gulf of Mexico between 0900-1000 UTC 17 May. This MCS, linked to the earlier convection associated with an anomalously strong subtropical jet (STJ) over the Gulf of Mexico, moved east-northeastward toward Florida. The second forecast challenge was a large MCS that formed over the Mexican mountains near the Texas-Mexican border, moved eastward and grew upscale prior to 1200 UTC 19 May. This MCS further strengthened offshore after 1800 UTC 19 May beneath the STJ. SPC SFE participants expected this MCS to move east-northeastward and bring heavy rain due to training echoes along the Gulf coast as far eastward as the Florida panhandle. Instead, this MCS transitioned into a bowing MCS that resembled a low-end derecho and produced a 4-6 hPa cold pool with widespread surface wind gusts between 35-50 kt. Both MCS events occurred in a large-scale baroclinic environment along the northern Gulf coast. Both MCS events responded to antecedent convection within this favorable large-scale environment. Rainfall amounts with the first heavy rain-producing MCS were severely underestimated by models and forecasters alike. The second MCS produced the greatest forecaster angst because rainfall totals were forecast too high (MCS propagated too fast) and severe wind reports were much more widespread than anticipated (because of cold pool formation). This presentation will attempt to untangle what happened and why it happened.

  14. Cellular automata-based forecasting of the impact of accidental fire and toxic dispersion in process industries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sarkar, Chinmoy; Abbasi, S.A.

    2006-01-01

    The strategies to prevent accidents from occurring in a process industry, or to minimize the harm if an accident does take place, always revolve around forecasting the likely accidents and their impacts. Based on the likely frequency and severity of the accidents, resources are committed towards preventing the accidents. Nearly all techniques of ranking hazardous units, be it the hazard and operability studies, fault tree analysis, hazard indice, etc. - qualitative as well as quantitative - depend essentially on the assessment of the likely frequency and the likely harm accidents in different units may cause. This fact makes it exceedingly important that the forecasting the accidents and their likely impact is done as accurately as possible. In the present study we introduce a new approach to accident forecasting based on the discrete modeling paradigm of cellular automata. In this treatment an accident is modeled as a self-evolving phenomena, the impact of which is strongly influenced by the size, nature, and position of the environmental components which lie in the vicinity of the accident site. The outward propagation of the mass, energy and momentum from the accident epicenter is modeled as a fast diffusion process occurring in discrete space-time coordinates. The quantum of energy and material that would flow into each discrete space element (cell) due to the accidental release is evaluated and the degree of vulnerability posed to the receptors if present in the cell is measured at the end of each time element. This approach is able to effectively take into account the modifications in the flux of energy and material which occur as a result of the heterogeneous environment prevailing between the accident epicenter and the receptor. Consequently, more realistic accident scenarios are generated than possible with the prevailing techniques. The efficacy of the approach has been illustrated with case studies

  15. Forecasting market impact costs and identifying expensive trades

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bikker, J.A.; Spierdijk, L.; Hoevenaars, R.P.M.M.; van der Sluis, P.J.

    Often, a relatively small group of trades causes the major part of the trading costs on an investment portfolio. For the equity trades studied in this paper, executed by the world's second largest pension fund, we find that only 10% of all trades determines 75% of total market impact costs.

  16. Tax-Credit Scholarships in Maryland: Forecasting the Fiscal Impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gottlob, Brian

    2010-01-01

    This study seeks to inform the debate over a proposal in Maryland to give tax credits to businesses for contributions to organizations that provide scholarships to K-12 private schools or which contribute to innovative educational programs in the public schools. The study constructs a model to determine the fiscal impact of a tax-credit…

  17. Improved Short-Term Load Forecasting Based on Two-Stage Predictions with Artificial Neural Networks in a Microgrid Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaime Lloret

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Short-Term Load Forecasting plays a significant role in energy generation planning, and is specially gaining momentum in the emerging Smart Grids environment, which usually presents highly disaggregated scenarios where detailed real-time information is available thanks to Communications and Information Technologies, as it happens for example in the case of microgrids. This paper presents a two stage prediction model based on an Artificial Neural Network in order to allow Short-Term Load Forecasting of the following day in microgrid environment, which first estimates peak and valley values of the demand curve of the day to be forecasted. Those, together with other variables, will make the second stage, forecast of the entire demand curve, more precise than a direct, single-stage forecast. The whole architecture of the model will be presented and the results compared with recent work on the same set of data, and on the same location, obtaining a Mean Absolute Percentage Error of 1.62% against the original 2.47% of the single stage model.

  18. Impact of forecast errors on expansion planning of power systems with a renewables target

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pineda, Salvador; Morales González, Juan Miguel; Boomsma, Trine Krogh

    2015-01-01

    This paper analyzes the impact of production forecast errors on the expansion planning of a power system and investigates the influence of market design to facilitate the integration of renewable generation. For this purpose, we propose a programming modeling framework to determine the generation...... and transmission expansion plan that minimizes system-wide investment and operating costs, while ensuring a given share of renewable generation in the electricity supply. Unlike existing ones, this framework includes both a day-ahead and a balancing market so as to capture the impact of both production forecasts...... and the associated prediction errors. Within this framework, we consider two paradigmatic market designs that essentially differ in whether the day-ahead generation schedule and the subsequent balancing re-dispatch are co-optimized or not. The main features and results of the model set-ups are discussed using...

  19. Global forecasts of urban expansion to 2030 and direct impacts on biodiversity and carbon pools

    OpenAIRE

    Seto, Karen C.; Güneralp, Burak; Hutyra, Lucy R.

    2012-01-01

    Urban land-cover change threatens biodiversity and affects ecosystem productivity through loss of habitat, biomass, and carbon storage. However, despite projections that world urban populations will increase to nearly 5 billion by 2030, little is known about future locations, magnitudes, and rates of urban expansion. Here we develop spatially explicit probabilistic forecasts of global urban land-cover change and explore the direct impacts on biodiversity hotspots and tropical carbon biomass. ...

  20. Impacts of calibration strategies and ensemble methods on ensemble flood forecasting over Lanjiang basin, Southeast China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Li; Xu, Yue-Ping

    2017-04-01

    Ensemble flood forecasting driven by numerical weather prediction products is becoming more commonly used in operational flood forecasting applications.In this study, a hydrological ensemble flood forecasting system based on Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and quantitative precipitation forecasts from TIGGE dataset is constructed for Lanjiang Basin, Southeast China. The impacts of calibration strategies and ensemble methods on the performance of the system are then evaluated.The hydrological model is optimized by parallel programmed ɛ-NSGAII multi-objective algorithm and two respectively parameterized models are determined to simulate daily flows and peak flows coupled with a modular approach.The results indicatethat the ɛ-NSGAII algorithm permits more efficient optimization and rational determination on parameter setting.It is demonstrated that the multimodel ensemble streamflow mean have better skills than the best singlemodel ensemble mean (ECMWF) and the multimodel ensembles weighted on members and skill scores outperform other multimodel ensembles. For typical flood event, it is proved that the flood can be predicted 3-4 days in advance, but the flows in rising limb can be captured with only 1-2 days ahead due to the flash feature. With respect to peak flows selected by Peaks Over Threshold approach, the ensemble means from either singlemodel or multimodels are generally underestimated as the extreme values are smoothed out by ensemble process.

  1. Mutual Impacts of Geocaching and Natural Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiří Schneider

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Rising popularity of geocaching is linked to increased risk of negative impacts on natural environment. Based on that, this paper intends to present possible approach of how to evaluate these impacts in the Landscape protected area Moravian Karst (Czech Republic and in the Vrátna dolina valley (National park Malá Fatra, Slovak Republic. Recreation along with nature conservation has been solved in these areas in the log-run and geocaching has been steadily extending offer of recreational activities. Therefore, it seems desirable to examine how geocaching affects environment and simultaneously how topography or land cover influences availability or difficulty of caches. 57 caches (i.e. one third of the total has been analyzed in the Moravian Karst and 11 caches in the Vrátna dolina valley. To assess impacts, own classification of indicators has been suggested, such as cache attendance, environment attractiveness or visually detected impacts of geocaching on natural environment. Our study revealed the major risk lies primarily in geo-highways which – with respect to soil type, land cover and intensity of cache attendance – grow rather fast. Despite the local nature of detected impacts, an increased attention shall be devoted to environment care and specifically to regulation of attendance.

  2. Testing the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) for flood forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batelis, Stamatios-Christos; Rosolem, Rafael; Han, Dawei; Rahman, Mostaquimur

    2017-04-01

    Land Surface Models (LSM) are based on physics principles and simulate the exchanges of energy, water and biogeochemical cycles between the land surface and lower atmosphere. Such models are typically applied for climate studies or effects of land use changes but as the resolution of LSMs and supporting observations are continuously increasing, its representation of hydrological processes need to be addressed adequately. For example, changes in climate and land use can alter the hydrology of a region, for instance, by altering its flooding regime. LSMs can be a powerful tool because of their ability to spatially represent a region with much finer resolution. However, despite such advantages, its performance has not been extensively assessed for flood forecasting simply because its representation of typical hydrological processes, such as overland flow and river routing, are still either ignored or roughly represented. In this study, we initially test the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) as a flood forecast tool focusing on its river routing scheme. In particular, JULES river routing parameterization is based on the Rapid Flow Model (RFM) which relies on six prescribed parameters (two surface and two subsurface wave celerities, and two return flow fractions). Although this routing scheme is simple, the prescription of its six default parameters is still too generalized. Our aim is to understand the importance of each RFM parameter in a series of JULES simulations at a number of catchments in the UK for the 2006-2015 period. This is carried out, for instance, by making a number of assumptions of parameter behaviour (e.g., spatially uniform versus varying and/or temporally constant or time-varying parameters within each catchment). Hourly rainfall radar in combination with the CHESS (Climate, Hydrological and Ecological research Support System) meteorological daily data both at 1 km2 resolution are used. The evaluation of the model is based on hourly runoff

  3. Forecasting domestic water demand in the Haihe river basin under changing environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    X.-J. Wang

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available A statistical model has been developed for forecasting domestic water demand in Haihe river basin of China due to population growth, technological advances and climate change. Historical records of domestic water use, climate, population and urbanization are used for the development of model. An ensemble of seven general circulation models (GCMs namely, BCC-CSM1-1, BNU-ESM, CNRM-CM5, GISS-E2-R, MIROC-ESM, PI-ESM-LR, MRI-CGCM3 were used for the projection of climate and the changes in water demand in the Haihe River basin under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 4.5. The results showed that domestic water demand in different sub-basins of the Haihe river basin will gradually increase due to continuous increase of population and rise in temperature. It is projected to increase maximum 136.22  ×  108 m3 by GCM BNU-ESM and the minimum 107.25  ×  108 m3 by CNRM-CM5 in 2030. In spite of uncertainty in projection, it can be remarked that climate change and population growth would cause increase in water demand and consequently, reduce the gap between water supply and demand, which eventually aggravate the condition of existing water stress in the basin. Water demand management should be emphasized for adaptation to ever increasing water demand and mitigation of the impacts of environmental changes.

  4. Forecasting domestic water demand in the Haihe river basin under changing environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xiao-Jun; Zhang, Jian-Yun; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Xie, Yu-Xuan; Zhang, Xu

    2018-02-01

    A statistical model has been developed for forecasting domestic water demand in Haihe river basin of China due to population growth, technological advances and climate change. Historical records of domestic water use, climate, population and urbanization are used for the development of model. An ensemble of seven general circulation models (GCMs) namely, BCC-CSM1-1, BNU-ESM, CNRM-CM5, GISS-E2-R, MIROC-ESM, PI-ESM-LR, MRI-CGCM3 were used for the projection of climate and the changes in water demand in the Haihe River basin under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5. The results showed that domestic water demand in different sub-basins of the Haihe river basin will gradually increase due to continuous increase of population and rise in temperature. It is projected to increase maximum 136.22 × 108 m3 by GCM BNU-ESM and the minimum 107.25 × 108 m3 by CNRM-CM5 in 2030. In spite of uncertainty in projection, it can be remarked that climate change and population growth would cause increase in water demand and consequently, reduce the gap between water supply and demand, which eventually aggravate the condition of existing water stress in the basin. Water demand management should be emphasized for adaptation to ever increasing water demand and mitigation of the impacts of environmental changes.

  5. Forecasting the Yield Curve in a Data-Rich Environment Using the Factor-Augmented Nelson-Siegel Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Exterkate, Peter; Dijk, Dick van; Heij, Christiaan

    2013-01-01

    This paper compares various ways of extracting macroeconomic information from a data-rich environment for forecasting the yield curve using the Nelson–Siegel model. Five issues in extracting factors from a large panel of macro variables are addressed; namely, selection of a subset of the available......, with principal component methods ranking second best. Reductions of mean squared prediction errors of 20–30% are attained, compared to the Nelson–Siegel model without macro factors....

  6. An empirical investigation on the forecasting ability of mallows model averaging in a macro economic environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Yip Chee; Hock-Eam, Lim

    2012-09-01

    This paper investigates the forecasting ability of Mallows Model Averaging (MMA) by conducting an empirical analysis of five Asia countries, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, Indonesia and China's GDP growth rate. Results reveal that MMA has no noticeable differences in predictive ability compared to the general autoregressive fractional integrated moving average model (ARFIMA) and its predictive ability is sensitive to the effect of financial crisis. MMA could be an alternative forecasting method for samples without recent outliers such as financial crisis.

  7. Observation impact studies with the Mercator Ocean analysis and forecasting systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Remy, E. D.; Le Traon, P. Y.; Lellouche, J. M.; Drevillon, M.; Turpin, V.; Benkiran, M.

    2016-02-01

    Mercator Ocean produces and delivers in real-time ocean analysis and forecasts on a daily basis. The quality of the analysis highly relies on the availability and quality of the assimilated observations.Tools are developed to estimate the impact of the present network and to help designing the future evolutions of the observing systems in the context of near real time production of ocean analysis and forecasts. OSE and OSSE are the main approaches used in this context. They allow the assessment of the efficiency of a given data set to constrain the ocean model circulation through the data assimilation process. Illustrations will mainly focus on the present and future evolution of the Argo observation network and altimetry constellation, including the potential impact of future SWOT data. Our systems show clear sensitivities to observation array changes, mainly depending on the specified observation error and regional dynamic. Impact on non observed variables can be important and are important to evaluate. Dedicated diagnostics has to be define to measure the improvements bring by each data set. Alternative approaches to OSE and OSSE are also explored: approximate computation of DFS will be presented and discussed. Limitations of each approach will be discussed in the context of real time operation.

  8. Unveiling China's impact on African environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peh, Kelvin S.-H.; Eyal, Jonathan

    2010-01-01

    China's economic involvement in Africa has recently attracted unprecedented global attention. Chinese interest in the oil, gas and other natural resources on the continent entails - it is alleged - more harm than good for Africa's environment. Yet much of the discussion about China's role in Africa is conducted in the absence of the most basic information and raw data. We believe that despite all the obvious informational obstacles, the secrecy veil on the China's African involvement can be lifted. And this, in turn, could produce a more accurate picture of the real impact on the Africa's environment.

  9. Ambient noise forecasting with a large acoustic array in a complex shallow water environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, Jeffrey S; Wales, Stephen C; Means, Steven L

    2017-11-01

    Forecasting ambient noise levels in the ocean can be a useful way of characterizing the detection performance of sonar systems and projecting bounds on performance into the near future. The assertion is that noise forecasting can be improved with a priori knowledge of source positions coupled with the ability to resolve closely separated sources in bearing. One example of such a system is the large aperture research array located at the South Florida Test Facility. Given radar and Automatic Identification System defined source positions and environmental information, transmission loss (TL) is computed from known source positions to the array. Source levels (SLs) of individual ships are then estimated from computed TL and the pre-determined beam response of the array using a non-negative least squares algorithm. Ambient noise forecasts are formed by projecting the estimated SLs along known ship tracks. Ambient noise forecast estimates are compared to measured beam level data and mean-squared error is computed. A mean squared error as low as 3.5 dB is demonstrated in 30 min forecast estimates when compared to ground truth.

  10. Natural disaster reduction applications of the Chinese small satellite constellation for environment and disaster monitoring and forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Sanchao; Fan, Yida; Gao, Maofang

    2013-10-01

    The Small Satellite Constellation for Environment and Disaster Monitoring and Forecasting (SSCEDMF) is an important component of Chinese satellites earth observation system. The first stage of SSCEDMF is composed by "2+1" satellites. The 2 optical satellites (HJ-1-A and HJ-1-B) and 1 S band microwave satellite (HJ-1-C) were successful launched on September 6, 2008 and November 19, 2012 respectively. This article introduced SSCEDMF characteristic and the disaster reduction application system and satellites on-orbit test works, and also analyzed the application capacity in natural disasters included flood, ice flooding, wild fire, severely drought, snow disasters, large area landslide and debris flow, sea ice, earthquake recovering, desertification and plant diseases and insect pests. Furthermore, we show some cases of China's and other countries' new natural disasters forecasting, monitoring, assessment and recovery construction.

  11. Global forecasts of urban expansion to 2030 and direct impacts on biodiversity and carbon pools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seto, Karen C; Güneralp, Burak; Hutyra, Lucy R

    2012-10-02

    Urban land-cover change threatens biodiversity and affects ecosystem productivity through loss of habitat, biomass, and carbon storage. However, despite projections that world urban populations will increase to nearly 5 billion by 2030, little is known about future locations, magnitudes, and rates of urban expansion. Here we develop spatially explicit probabilistic forecasts of global urban land-cover change and explore the direct impacts on biodiversity hotspots and tropical carbon biomass. If current trends in population density continue and all areas with high probabilities of urban expansion undergo change, then by 2030, urban land cover will increase by 1.2 million km(2), nearly tripling the global urban land area circa 2000. This increase would result in considerable loss of habitats in key biodiversity hotspots, with the highest rates of forecasted urban growth to take place in regions that were relatively undisturbed by urban development in 2000: the Eastern Afromontane, the Guinean Forests of West Africa, and the Western Ghats and Sri Lanka hotspots. Within the pan-tropics, loss in vegetation biomass from areas with high probability of urban expansion is estimated to be 1.38 PgC (0.05 PgC yr(-1)), equal to ∼5% of emissions from tropical deforestation and land-use change. Although urbanization is often considered a local issue, the aggregate global impacts of projected urban expansion will require significant policy changes to affect future growth trajectories to minimize global biodiversity and vegetation carbon losses.

  12. Artificial neural networks to forecast biomass of Pacific sardine and its environment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cisneros Mata, M.A.; Brey, T.; Jarre, Astrid

    1996-01-01

    We tested the forecasting performance of artificial neural networks (ANNs) using several time series of environmental and biotic data pertaining to the California Current (CC) neritic ecosystem. ANNs performed well predicting CC monthly 10-m depth temperature up to nine years in advance, using te...

  13. The Impact of Implementing a Demand Forecasting System into a Low-Income Country’s Supply Chain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mueller, Leslie E.; Haidari, Leila A.; Wateska, Angela R.; Phillips, Roslyn J.; Schmitz, Michelle M.; Connor, Diana L.; Norman, Bryan A.; Brown, Shawn T.; Welling, Joel S.; Lee, Bruce Y.

    2016-01-01

    OBJECTIVE To evaluate the potential impact and value of applications (e.g., ordering levels, storage capacity, transportation capacity, distribution frequency) of data from demand forecasting systems implemented in a lower-income country’s vaccine supply chain with different levels of population change to urban areas. MATERIALS AND METHODS Using our software, HERMES, we generated a detailed discrete event simulation model of Niger’s entire vaccine supply chain, including every refrigerator, freezer, transport, personnel, vaccine, cost, and location. We represented the introduction of a demand forecasting system to adjust vaccine ordering that could be implemented with increasing delivery frequencies and/or additions of cold chain equipment (storage and/or transportation) across the supply chain during varying degrees of population movement. RESULTS Implementing demand forecasting system with increased storage and transport frequency increased the number of successfully administered vaccine doses and lowered the logistics cost per dose up to 34%. Implementing demand forecasting system without storage/transport increases actually decreased vaccine availability in certain circumstances. DISCUSSION The potential maximum gains of a demand forecasting system may only be realized if the system is implemented to both augment the supply chain cold storage and transportation. Implementation may have some impact but, in certain circumstances, may hurt delivery. Therefore, implementation of demand forecasting systems with additional storage and transport may be the better approach. Significant decreases in the logistics cost per dose with more administered vaccines support investment in these forecasting systems. CONCLUSION Demand forecasting systems have the potential to greatly improve vaccine demand fulfillment, and decrease logistics cost/dose when implemented with storage and transportation increases direct vaccines. Simulation modeling can demonstrate the potential

  14. Impacts of Amazonia biomass burning aerosols assessed from short-range weather forecasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. R. Kolusu

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The direct radiative impacts of biomass burning aerosols (BBA on meteorology are investigated using short-range forecasts from the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM over South America during the South American Biomass Burning Analysis (SAMBBA. The impacts are evaluated using a set of three simulations: (i no aerosols, (ii with monthly mean aerosol climatologies and (iii with prognostic aerosols modelled using the Coupled Large-scale Aerosol Simulator for Studies In Climate (CLASSIC scheme. Comparison with observations show that the prognostic CLASSIC scheme provides the best representation of BBA. The impacts of BBA are quantified over central and southern Amazonia from the first and second day of 2-day forecasts during 14 September–3 October 2012. On average, during the first day of the forecast, including prognostic BBA reduces the clear-sky net radiation at the surface by 15 ± 1 W m−2 and reduces net top-of-atmosphere (TOA radiation by 8 ± 1 W m−2, with a direct atmospheric warming of 7 ± 1 W m−2. BBA-induced reductions in all-sky radiation are smaller in magnitude: 9.0 ± 1 W m−2 at the surface and 4.0 ± 1 W m−2 at TOA. In this modelling study the BBA therefore exert an overall cooling influence on the Earth–atmosphere system, although some levels of the atmosphere are directly warmed by the absorption of solar radiation. Due to the reduction of net radiative flux at the surface, the mean 2 m air temperature is reduced by around 0.1 ± 0.02 °C. The BBA also cools the boundary layer (BL but warms air above by around 0.2 °C due to the absorption of shortwave radiation. The overall impact is to reduce the BL depth by around 19 ± 8 m. These differences in heating lead to a more anticyclonic circulation at 700 hPa, with winds changing by around 0.6 m s−1. Inclusion of climatological or prognostic BBA in the MetUM makes a small but significant improvement in forecasts of temperature and relative humidity, but improvements were

  15. State and forecast of radioactive contamination of geological environment in the region of 'Shelter' object

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shestopalov, V.M.; Boguslavskij, A.S.; Kukharenko, D.E.; Onishchenko, I.P.; Panasyuk, N.I.

    2001-01-01

    Chornobyl NPP and especially the surroundings of the 'Shelter' object are the epicenter of radioactive impact of Chornobyl accident on geological environment, including groundwater. The two data sets- north from the 'Shelter' where groundwater from under the 'Shelter' moves, and south from the 'Shelter' characterizing the groundwater flow in the up-stream direction from the 'Shelter'. After data processing the generalized models of present distribution of 3 H, 90 Sr, and 137 Cs in groundwater around the 'Shelter' were obtained. They reflect the major role of the 'Shelter' in access of tritium and Strontium-90 into groundwater and main influence of the buned active layer on groundwater contamination with Cesium-137. The result obtained corresponds to high migrational activity of these isotopes. Along with this, the significantly higher migrational activity of Tritium, as compared to Strontium-90, has been proved. Obtained model schematic maps were used for onented assessment of accumulated amounts of radionuclides sorbed by rocks of geological environment around the 'Shelter' object. In watered zone of Quaternary deposits they reach more than 4000 Ci of 137 Cs, and about 6000 Ci of 90 Sr

  16. A prediction model to forecast the cost impact from a break in the production schedule

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delionback, L. M.

    1977-01-01

    The losses which are experienced after a break or stoppage in sequence of a production cycle portends an extremely complex situation and involves numerous variables, some of uncertain quantity and quality. There are no discrete formulas to define the losses during a gap in production. The techniques which are employed are therefore related to a prediction or forecast of the losses that take place, based on the conditions which exist in the production environment. Such parameters as learning curve slope, number of predecessor units, and length of time the production sequence is halted are utilized in formulating a prediction model. The pertinent current publications related to this subject are few in number, but are reviewed to provide an understanding of the problem. Example problems are illustrated together with appropriate trend curves to show the approach. Solved problems are also given to show the application of the models to actual cases or production breaks in the real world.

  17. Forecasting the Ocean’s Optical Environment: Development of the BioCast System

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-09-01

    Gulf of Mexico (data not shown). Additional advancements in ocean optical forecasting will also result from the integration of BioCast with other...uniformed sailors and marines would have been rather conspicuous against the turbid gray waves marking the entryway to the riotous North Sea. Two...Detection of underwater mines with airborne, towed, or autonomous under- water platforms can be severely impeded by sustained water column turbidity

  18. Uncertainty propagation for flood forecasting in the Alps: different views and impacts from MAP D-PHASE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. W. Rotach

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available D-PHASE was a Forecast Demonstration Project of the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP related to the Mesoscale Alpine Programme (MAP. Its goal was to demonstrate the reliability and quality of operational forecasting of orographically influenced (determined precipitation in the Alps and its consequences on the distribution of run-off characteristics. A special focus was, of course, on heavy-precipitation events.

    The D-PHASE Operations Period (DOP ran from June to November~2007, during which an end-to-end forecasting system was operated covering many individual catchments in the Alps, with their water authorities, civil protection organizations or other end users. The forecasting system's core piece was a Visualization Platform where precipitation and flood warnings from some 30 atmospheric and 7 hydrological models (both deterministic and probabilistic and corresponding model fields were displayed in uniform and comparable formats. Also, meteograms, nowcasting information and end user communication was made available to all the forecasters, users and end users. D-PHASE information was assessed and used by some 50 different groups ranging from atmospheric forecasters to civil protection authorities or water management bodies.

    In the present contribution, D-PHASE is briefly presented along with its outstanding scientific results and, in particular, the lessons learnt with respect to uncertainty propagation. A focus is thereby on the transfer of ensemble prediction information into the hydrological community and its use with respect to other aspects of societal impact. Objective verification of forecast quality is contrasted to subjective quality assessments during the project (end user workshops, questionnaires and some general conclusions concerning forecast demonstration projects are drawn.

  19. Predicting the local impacts of energy development: a critical guide to forecasting methods and models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sanderson, D.; O' Hare, M.

    1977-05-01

    Models forecasting second-order impacts from energy development vary in their methodology, output, assumptions, and quality. As a rough dichotomy, they either simulate community development over time or combine various submodels providing community snapshots at selected points in time. Using one or more methods - input/output models, gravity models, econometric models, cohort-survival models, or coefficient models - they estimate energy-development-stimulated employment, population, public and private service needs, and government revenues and expenditures at some future time (ranging from annual to average year predictions) and for different governmental jurisdictions (municipal, county, state, etc.). Underlying assumptions often conflict, reflecting their different sources - historical data, comparative data, surveys, and judgments about future conditions. Model quality, measured by special features, tests, exportability and usefulness to policy-makers, reveals careful and thorough work in some cases and hurried operations with insufficient in-depth analysis in others.

  20. Evaluating the Impact of AIRS Observations on Regional Forecasts at the SPoRT Center

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zavodsky, Bradley

    2011-01-01

    NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center collaborates with operational partners of different sizes and operational goals to improve forecasts using targeted projects and data sets. Modeling and DA activities focus on demonstrating utility of NASA data sets and capabilities within operational systems. SPoRT has successfully assimilated the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) radiance and profile data. A collaborative project is underway with the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA) to use AIRS profiles to better understand the impact of AIRS radiances assimilated within Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) in hopes of engaging the operational DA community in a reassessment of assimilation methodologies to more effectively assimilate hyperspectral radiances.

  1. Parameter estimation using the genetic algorithm and its impact on quantitative precipitation forecast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. H. Lee

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available In this study, optimal parameter estimations are performed for both physical and computational parameters in a mesoscale meteorological model, and their impacts on the quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF are assessed for a heavy rainfall case occurred at the Korean Peninsula in June 2005. Experiments are carried out using the PSU/NCAR MM5 model and the genetic algorithm (GA for two parameters: the reduction rate of the convective available potential energy in the Kain-Fritsch (KF scheme for cumulus parameterization, and the Asselin filter parameter for numerical stability. The fitness function is defined based on a QPF skill score. It turns out that each optimized parameter significantly improves the QPF skill. Such improvement is maximized when the two optimized parameters are used simultaneously. Our results indicate that optimizations of computational parameters as well as physical parameters and their adequate applications are essential in improving model performance.

  2. Impact of the environment on reproductive health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1991-01-01

    The WHO workshop on the impact of the environment on reproductive health is summarized. Topics include the nature of environmental factors affecting reproductive health, environmental factors blamed for declining sperm quantity and quality, the effects of natural and man-made disasters on reproductive health, chemical pollutants, how the environment damages reproductive health, and research needs for better research methodologies and surveillance data. Recommendations are made to: 1) promote international research collaboration with an emphasis on consistency of methodological approaches for assessing developmental and reproductive toxicity, on development of improved surveillance systems and data bases, an strengthening international disaster alert and evaluation systems; 2) promote research capabilities for multidisciplinary studies, for interactive studies of the environment and cellular processes, and for expansion of training and education; and 3) take action on priority problems of exposure to chemical, physical, and biological agents, of exposure to pesticides among specific populations, and of inadequate screening methods for identification of environmental chemicals. The costs of environmental injury to reproduction include subfertility, intrauterine growth retardation, spontaneous abortion, and various birth defects. Developed country's primary threats are from chemical pollution, radiation, and stress. There is a large gap in knowledge. Caution is urged in understanding the direct relationship between environmental causes and infertility. Sexual health is difficult to assess and research is suggested. Exposure to excessive vitamin A and toxic chemicals are cited as agents probably having serious effects on malformations. Sperm quality has declined over the decades; there is speculation about the potential causes. The effects of radiation such as at Chernobyl are described. Toxic chemical exposure such as in Bhopal, India killed thousands. Neurological

  3. Limiting our impact on the environment

    CERN Multimedia

    2012-01-01

    CERN’s fourth safety objective for 2012 concerns the reduction of the environmental impact of noise and energy consumption associated with CERN's activities.   In order to continue to reduce the impact of noise on our neighbours, the HSE Unit is coordinating measures to reduce noise in the environment at all the LHC and SPS points, and on the Meyrin and Prévessin sites. If you are aware of a high-intensity noise that could disturb those living and working close to our sites, you can contact the HSE Unit. And most important of all, please take this potential nuisance into account when you're planning new projects. The HSE Unit is there to help you. The other aspect of our environmental target for the year is to optimise CERN's energy consumption. We can achieve this by limiting the energy consumption of facilities right from the design stage - from small components to large installations - and by using renewable energies even on a sma...

  4. Forecasting land cover change impacts on drinking water treatment costs in Minneapolis, Minnesota

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woznicki, S. A.; Wickham, J.

    2017-12-01

    Source protection is a critical aspect of drinking water treatment. The benefits of protecting source water quality in reducing drinking water treatment costs are clear. However, forecasting the impacts of environmental change on source water quality and its potential to influence future treatment processes is lacking. The drinking water treatment plant in Minneapolis, MN has recognized that land cover change threatens water quality in their source watershed, the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB). Over 1,000 km2 of forests, wetlands, and grasslands in the UMRB were lost to agriculture from 2008-2013. This trend, coupled with a projected population increase of one million people in Minnesota by 2030, concerns drinking water treatment plant operators in Minneapolis with respect to meeting future demand for clean water in the UMRB. The objective of this study is to relate land cover change (forest and wetland loss, agricultural expansion, urbanization) to changes in treatment costs for the Minneapolis, MN drinking water utility. To do this, we first developed a framework to determine the relationship between land cover change and water quality in the context of recent historical changes and projected future changes in land cover. Next we coupled a watershed model, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to projections of land cover change from the FOREcasting SCEnarios of Land-use Change (FORE-SCE) model for the mid-21st century. Using historical Minneapolis drinking water treatment data (chemical usage and costs), source water quality in the UMRB was linked to changes in treatment requirements as a function of projected future land cover change. These analyses will quantify the value of natural landscapes in protecting drinking water quality and future treatment processes requirements. In addition, our study provides the Minneapolis drinking water utility with information critical to their planning and capital improvement process.

  5. The impact of the internet on community pharmacy practice: a comparison of a Delphi panel's forecast with emerging trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmes, Erin R; Tipton, David J; Desselle, Shane P

    2002-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to forecast the impact of Internet pharmacy commerce on various stakeholders. A panel of experts assembled from a list of academicians in the social and administrative pharmaceutical sciences participated in a three-iteration Delphi procedure. Feedback from the aggregate responses of the panel was used to construct questionnaires employed in subsequent iterations of the Delphi. The panel converged to form a consensus upon a variety of issues. They forecasted the attainment of a 10-15% share in the market of prescription and over-the-counter pharmaceuticals through on-line purchases, the formation of strategic alliances among stakeholders in the drug distribution process, a shift in marketing strategies by brick-and-mortar stores, an increase in the prevalence of niching among pharmacy service providers and a subsequent growth in the implementation of cognitive services throughout the industry. With few exceptions, the forecast produced by the Delphi panel appears to be coming to fruition.

  6. The impact of short term traffic forecasting on the effectiveness of vehicles routes planning in urban areas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kubek, D.

    2016-07-01

    An impossibility to foresee in advance the accurate traffic parameters in face of dynamism phenomena in complex transportation system is a one of the major source of uncertainty. The paper presents an approach to robust optimization of logistics vehicle routes in urban areas on the basis of estimated short-term traffic time forecasts in a selected area of the urban road network. The forecast values of optimization parameters have been determined using the spectral analysis model, taking into account the forecast uncertainty degree. The robust counterparts approach of uncertain bi-criteria shortest path problem formulation is used to determining the robust routes for logistics vehicles in the urban network. The uncertainty set is created on the basis of forecast travel times in chosen sections, estimated by means of spectral analysis. The advantages and the characteristics are exemplified in the actual Krakow road network. The obtained data have been compared with classic approach wherein it is assumed that the optimization parameters are certain and accurate. The results obtained in the simulation example indicate that use of forecasting techniques with robust optimization models has a positive impact on the quality of final solutions. (Author)

  7. Global Forecasts of Urban Expansion to 2030 and Direct Impacts on Biodiversity and Carbon Pools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seto, K. C.; Guneralp, B.; Hutyra, L.

    2012-12-01

    Urban land cover change threatens biodiversity and affects ecosystem productivity through loss of habitat, biomass, and carbon storage. Yet, despite projections that world urban populations will increase to 4.3 billion by 2030, little is known about future locations, magnitudes, and rates of urban expansion. Here we develop the first global probabilistic forecasts of urban land cover change and explore the impacts on biodiversity hotspots and tropical carbon biomass. If current trends in population density continue, then by 2030, urban land cover will expand between 800,000 and 3.3 million km2, representing a doubling to five-fold increase from the global urban land cover in 2000. This would result in considerable loss of habitats in key biodiversity hotspots, including the Guinean forests of West Africa, Tropical Andes, Western Ghats and Sri Lanka. Within the pan-tropics, loss in forest biomass from urban expansion is estimated to be 1.38 PgC (0.05 PgC yr-1), equal to approximately 5% of emissions from tropical land use change. Although urbanization is often considered a local issue, the aggregate global impacts of projected urban expansion will require significant policy changes to affect future growth trajectories to minimize global biodiversity and forest carbon losses.

  8. Managing living marine resources in a dynamic environment: the role of seasonal to decadal climate forecasts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tommasi, Desiree; Stock, Charles A.; Hobday, Alistair J.

    2017-01-01

    and industry operations, as well as new research avenues in fisheries science. LMRs respond to climate variability via changes in physiology and behavior. For species and systems where climate-fisheries links are well established, forecasted LMR responses can lead to anticipatory and more effective decisions......Recent developments in global dynamical climate prediction systems have allowed for skillful predictions of climate variables relevant to living marine resources (LMRs) at a scale useful to understanding and managing LMRs. Such predictions present opportunities for improved LMR management......, benefitting both managers and stakeholders. Here, we provide an overview of climate prediction systems and advances in seasonal to decadal prediction of marine-resource relevant environmental variables. We then describe a range of climate-sensitive LMR decisions that can be taken at lead-times of months...

  9. Development of a High Resolution Weather Forecast Model for Mesoamerica Using the NASA Ames Code I Private Cloud Computing Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molthan, Andrew; Case, Jonathan; Venner, Jason; Moreno-Madrinan, Max J.; Delgado, Francisco

    2012-01-01

    Two projects at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center have collaborated to develop a high resolution weather forecast model for Mesoamerica: The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center, which integrates unique NASA satellite and weather forecast modeling capabilities into the operational weather forecasting community. NASA's SERVIR Program, which integrates satellite observations, ground-based data, and forecast models to improve disaster response in Central America, the Caribbean, Africa, and the Himalayas.

  10. An Integrated Modeling Framework Forecasting Ecosystem Exposure-- A Systems Approach to the Cumulative Impacts of Multiple Stressors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnston, J. M.

    2013-12-01

    Freshwater habitats provide fishable, swimmable and drinkable resources and are a nexus of geophysical and biological processes. These processes in turn influence the persistence and sustainability of populations, communities and ecosystems. Climate change and landuse change encompass numerous stressors of potential exposure, including the introduction of toxic contaminants, invasive species, and disease in addition to physical drivers such as temperature and hydrologic regime. A systems approach that includes the scientific and technologic basis of assessing the health of ecosystems is needed to effectively protect human health and the environment. The Integrated Environmental Modeling Framework 'iemWatersheds' has been developed as a consistent and coherent means of forecasting the cumulative impact of co-occurring stressors. The Framework consists of three facilitating technologies: Data for Environmental Modeling (D4EM) that automates the collection and standardization of input data; the Framework for Risk Assessment of Multimedia Environmental Systems (FRAMES) that manages the flow of information between linked models; and the Supercomputer for Model Uncertainty and Sensitivity Evaluation (SuperMUSE) that provides post-processing and analysis of model outputs, including uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. Five models are linked within the Framework to provide multimedia simulation capabilities for hydrology and water quality processes: the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) predicts surface water and sediment runoff and associated contaminants; the Watershed Mercury Model (WMM) predicts mercury runoff and loading to streams; the Water quality Analysis and Simulation Program (WASP) predicts water quality within the stream channel; the Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) model scores physicochemical habitat quality for individual fish species; and the Bioaccumulation and Aquatic System Simulator (BASS) predicts fish growth, population dynamics and bioaccumulation

  11. Regular monitoring, analysis and forecast of radioecological environment of Azgir test site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Akhmetov, E.; Agymov, I.; Gilmanov, Zh.; Ermanov, A.; Zhetbaev, A.

    1996-01-01

    The objective of investigations: basing on the results of regular annual measurements of radiation conditions on the sites of underground nuclear cavities of the Azgir test site, specific concentrations of radionuclides and heavy metals in soil and underground aquifers on the test site and adjacent territories to obtain data on migration and transfer of radionuclides and heavy metals. This will give a real possibility to make probability predictions of ways and qualitative characteristics of spreading of radionuclides and heavy metals in the region of the northern Pricaspian lowland. The Essence of the Problem The Azgir test site is located in the arid zone of the Great Azgir salt cupola near the Azgir village of Kurmangazinskiy rayon, Atyrau region. This cupola is located in the western periphery of Pricaspian salt-bearing province situated to the north of the Caspian sea between the Volga and Emba rivers. Major Tasks: - Development of technical requirements for carrying out regular examination of radionuclide and heavy metal contamination of the Azgir test site. - Preparation of material and technical base for field works on the Azgir test site. - Radiometric measurements on the sites and around them. - Taking of soil, soil and ground waters samples both on the test site and on the adjacent territories. - Spectrometric and radiochemical investigations of soil, soil and ground water samples. - Analysis and generalization of the results creating premises for forecasting of the radioecological conditions. - Investigation of the possibility of radioactive waste disposal in underground cavities. Expected Results: - Detection and outlining of local areas of radioactive contamination on the site and adjacent territories. - Data on real structure of spreading and concentration of artificial and natural radionuclides and heavy metals in soil layer of the test site region. - Results of analytic investigations of water samples of underground sources of the site and adjacent

  12. 40 CFR 68.33 - Defining offsite impacts-environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 15 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Defining offsite impacts-environment. 68.33 Section 68.33 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR... impacts—environment. (a) The owner or operator shall list in the RMP environmental receptors within a...

  13. Forecasting climate change impacts on plant populations over large spatial extents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tredennick, Andrew T.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Aldridge, Cameron L.; Homer, Collin G.; Kleinhesselink, Andrew R.; Adler, Peter B.

    2016-01-01

    Plant population models are powerful tools for predicting climate change impacts in one location, but are difficult to apply at landscape scales. We overcome this limitation by taking advantage of two recent advances: remotely sensed, species-specific estimates of plant cover and statistical models developed for spatiotemporal dynamics of animal populations. Using computationally efficient model reparameterizations, we fit a spatiotemporal population model to a 28-year time series of sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) percent cover over a 2.5 × 5 km landscape in southwestern Wyoming while formally accounting for spatial autocorrelation. We include interannual variation in precipitation and temperature as covariates in the model to investigate how climate affects the cover of sagebrush. We then use the model to forecast the future abundance of sagebrush at the landscape scale under projected climate change, generating spatially explicit estimates of sagebrush population trajectories that have, until now, been impossible to produce at this scale. Our broadscale and long-term predictions are rooted in small-scale and short-term population dynamics and provide an alternative to predictions offered by species distribution models that do not include population dynamics. Our approach, which combines several existing techniques in a novel way, demonstrates the use of remote sensing data to model population responses to environmental change that play out at spatial scales far greater than the traditional field study plot.

  14. Impact of Forecast and Model Error Correlations In 4dvar Data Assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zupanski, M.; Zupanski, D.; Vukicevic, T.; Greenwald, T.; Eis, K.; Vonder Haar, T.

    A weak-constraint 4DVAR data assimilation system has been developed at Cooper- ative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA), Colorado State University. It is based on the NCEP's ETA 4DVAR system, and it is fully parallel (MPI coding). The CIRA's 4DVAR system is aimed for satellite data assimilation research, with cur- rent focus on assimilation of cloudy radiances and microwave satellite measurements. Most important improvement over the previous 4DVAR system is a degree of gener- ality introduced into the new algorithm, namely for applications with different NWP models (e.g., RAMS, WRF, ETA, etc.), and for the choice of control variable. In cur- rent applications, the non-hydrostatic RAMS model and its adjoint are used, including all microphysical processess. The control variable includes potential temperature, ve- locity potential and stream function, vertical velocity, and seven mixing ratios with respect to all water phases. Since the statistics of the microphysical components of the control variable is not well known, a special attention will be paid to the impact of the forecast and model (prior) error correlations on the 4DVAR analysis. In particular, the sensitivity of the analysis with respect to decorrelation length will be examined. The prior error covariances are modelled using the compactly-supported, space-limited correlations developed at NASA DAO.

  15. Precipitation observations for operational flood forecasting in Scotland: Data availability, limitations and the impact of observational uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parry, Louise; Neely, Ryan, III; Bennett, Lindsay; Collier, Chris; Dufton, David

    2017-04-01

    The Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) has a statutory responsibility to provide flood warning across Scotland. It achieves this through an operational partnership with the UK Met Office wherein meteorological forecasts are applied to a national distributed hydrological model, Grid- to- Grid (G2G), and catchment specific lumped PDM models. Both of these model types rely on observed precipitation input for model development and calibration, and operationally for historical runs to generate initial conditions. Scotland has an average annual precipitation of 1430mm per annum (1971-2000), but the spatial variability in totals is high, predominantly in relation to the topography and prevailing winds, which poses different challenges to both radar and point measurement methods of observation. In addition, the high elevations mean that in winter a significant proportion of precipitation falls as snow. For the operational forecasting models, observed rainfall data is provided in Near Real Time (NRT) from SEPA's network of approximately 260 telemetered TBR gauges and 4 UK Met Office C-band radars. Both data sources have their strengths and weaknesses, particularly in relation to the orography and spatial representativeness, but estimates of rainfall from the two methods can vary greatly. Northern Scotland, particularly near Inverness, is a comparatively sparse part of the radar network. Rainfall totals and distribution in this area are determined by the Northern Western Highlands and Cairngorms mountain ranges, which also have a negative impact on radar observations. In recognition of this issue, the NCAS mobile X-band weather radar (MXWR) was deployed in this area between February and August 2016. This study presents a comparison of rainfall estimates for the Inverness and Moray Firth region generated from the operational radar network, the TBR network, and the MXWR. Quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs) from both sources of radar data were compared to

  16. Impact of GFZ's Effective Angular Momentum Forecasts on Polar Motion Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dill, Robert; Dobslaw, Henryk

    2017-04-01

    The Earth System Modelling group at GeoForschungsZentrum (GFZ) Potsdam offers now 6-day forecasts of Earth rotation excitation due to atmospheric, oceanic, and hydrologic angular momentum changes that are consistent with its 40 years-long EAM series. Those EAM forecasts are characterized by an improved long-term consistency due to the introduction of a time-invariant high-resolution reference topography into the AAM processing that accounts for occasional NWP model changes. In addition, all tidal signals from both atmosphere and ocean have been separated, and the temporal resolution of both AAM and OAM has been increased to 3 hours. Analysis of an extended set of EAM short-term hindcasts revealed positive prediction skills for up to 6 days into the future when compared to a persistent forecast. Whereas UT1 predictions in particular rely on an accurate AAM forecast, skillfull polar motion prediction requires high-quality OAM forecasts as well. We will present in this contribution the results from a multi-year hindcast experiment, demonstrating that the polar motion prediction as currently available from Bulletin A can be improved in particular for lead-times between 2 and 5 days by incorporating OAM forecasts. We will also report about early results obtained at Observatoire de Paris to predict polar motion from the integration of GFZ's 6-day EAM forecasts into the Liouville equation in a routine setting, that fully takes into account the operational latencies of all required input products.

  17. Day-Ahead Wind Power Forecasting Using a Two-Stage Hybrid Modeling Approach Based on SCADA and Meteorological Information, and Evaluating the Impact of Input-Data Dependency on Forecasting Accuracy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dehua Zheng

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The power generated by wind generators is usually associated with uncertainties, due to the intermittency of wind speed and other weather variables. This creates a big challenge for transmission system operators (TSOs and distribution system operators (DSOs in terms of connecting, controlling and managing power networks with high-penetration wind energy. Hence, in these power networks, accurate wind power forecasts are essential for their reliable and efficient operation. They support TSOs and DSOs in enhancing the control and management of the power network. In this paper, a novel two-stage hybrid approach based on the combination of the Hilbert-Huang transform (HHT, genetic algorithm (GA and artificial neural network (ANN is proposed for day-ahead wind power forecasting. The approach is composed of two stages. The first stage utilizes numerical weather prediction (NWP meteorological information to predict wind speed at the exact site of the wind farm. The second stage maps actual wind speed vs. power characteristics recorded by SCADA. Then, the wind speed forecast in the first stage for the future day is fed to the second stage to predict the future day’s wind power. Comparative selection of input-data parameter sets for the forecasting model and impact analysis of input-data dependency on forecasting accuracy have also been studied. The proposed approach achieves significant forecasting accuracy improvement compared with three other artificial intelligence-based forecasting approaches and a benchmark model using the smart persistence method.

  18. Managing living marine resources in a dynamic environment: The role of seasonal to decadal climate forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tommasi, Desiree; Stock, Charles A.; Hobday, Alistair J.; Methot, Rick; Kaplan, Isaac C.; Eveson, J. Paige; Holsman, Kirstin; Miller, Timothy J.; Gaichas, Sarah; Gehlen, Marion; Pershing, Andrew; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Msadek, Rym; Delworth, Tom; Eakin, C. Mark; Haltuch, Melissa A.; Séférian, Roland; Spillman, Claire M.; Hartog, Jason R.; Siedlecki, Samantha; Samhouri, Jameal F.; Muhling, Barbara; Asch, Rebecca G.; Pinsky, Malin L.; Saba, Vincent S.; Kapnick, Sarah B.; Gaitan, Carlos F.; Rykaczewski, Ryan R.; Alexander, Michael A.; Xue, Yan; Pegion, Kathleen V.; Lynch, Patrick; Payne, Mark R.; Kristiansen, Trond; Lehodey, Patrick; Werner, Francisco E.

    2017-03-01

    Recent developments in global dynamical climate prediction systems have allowed for skillful predictions of climate variables relevant to living marine resources (LMRs) at a scale useful to understanding and managing LMRs. Such predictions present opportunities for improved LMR management and industry operations, as well as new research avenues in fisheries science. LMRs respond to climate variability via changes in physiology and behavior. For species and systems where climate-fisheries links are well established, forecasted LMR responses can lead to anticipatory and more effective decisions, benefitting both managers and stakeholders. Here, we provide an overview of climate prediction systems and advances in seasonal to decadal prediction of marine-resource relevant environmental variables. We then describe a range of climate-sensitive LMR decisions that can be taken at lead-times of months to decades, before highlighting a range of pioneering case studies using climate predictions to inform LMR decisions. The success of these case studies suggests that many additional applications are possible. Progress, however, is limited by observational and modeling challenges. Priority developments include strengthening of the mechanistic linkages between climate and marine resource responses, development of LMR models able to explicitly represent such responses, integration of climate driven LMR dynamics in the multi-driver context within which marine resources exist, and improved prediction of ecosystem-relevant variables at the fine regional scales at which most marine resource decisions are made. While there are fundamental limits to predictability, continued advances in these areas have considerable potential to make LMR managers and industry decision more resilient to climate variability and help sustain valuable resources. Concerted dialog between scientists, LMR managers and industry is essential to realizing this potential.

  19. Assimilation of extrapolated radar reflectivity into a NWP model and its impact on a precipitation forecast at high resolution

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Sokol, Zbyněk

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 100, 2-3 (2011), s. 201-212 ISSN 0169-8095 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA205/07/0905; GA MŠk ME09033 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : Precipitation forecast * Nowcasting * Assimilation of radar reflectivity * Numerical weather prediction * Convective storms Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.911, year: 2011 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169809510002462

  20. Spatial electric load forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    Willis, H Lee

    2002-01-01

    Containing 12 new chapters, this second edition contains offers increased-coverage of weather correction and normalization of forecasts, anticipation of redevelopment, determining the validity of announced developments, and minimizing risk from over- or under-planning. It provides specific examples and detailed explanations of key points to consider for both standard and unusual utility forecasting situations, information on new algorithms and concepts in forecasting, a review of forecasting pitfalls and mistakes, case studies depicting challenging forecast environments, and load models illustrating various types of demand.

  1. Impact of chemical lateral boundary conditions in a regional air quality forecast model on surface ozone predictions during stratospheric intrusions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pendlebury, Diane; Gravel, Sylvie; Moran, Michael D.; Lupu, Alexandru

    2018-02-01

    A regional air quality forecast model, GEM-MACH, is used to examine the conditions under which a limited-area air quality model can accurately forecast near-surface ozone concentrations during stratospheric intrusions. Periods in 2010 and 2014 with known stratospheric intrusions over North America were modelled using four different ozone lateral boundary conditions obtained from a seasonal climatology, a dynamically-interpolated monthly climatology, global air quality forecasts, and global air quality reanalyses. It is shown that the mean bias and correlation in surface ozone over the course of a season can be improved by using time-varying ozone lateral boundary conditions, particularly through the correct assignment of stratospheric vs. tropospheric ozone along the western lateral boundary (for North America). Part of the improvement in surface ozone forecasts results from improvements in the characterization of near-surface ozone along the lateral boundaries that then directly impact surface locations near the boundaries. However, there is an additional benefit from the correct characterization of the location of the tropopause along the western lateral boundary such that the model can correctly simulate stratospheric intrusions and their associated exchange of ozone from stratosphere to troposphere. Over a three-month period in spring 2010, the mean bias was seen to improve by as much as 5 ppbv and the correlation by 0.1 depending on location, and on the form of the chemical lateral boundary condition.

  2. Evaluating the impact of improvements to the FLAMBE smoke source model on forecasts of aerosol distribution from NAAPS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hyer, E. J.; Reid, J. S.

    2006-12-01

    As more forecast models aim to include aerosol and chemical species, there is a need for source functions for biomass burning emissions that are accurate, robust, and operable in real-time. NAAPS is a global aerosol forecast model running every six hours and forecasting distributions of biomass burning, industrial sulfate, dust, and sea salt aerosols. This model is run operationally by the U.S. Navy as an aid to planning. The smoke emissions used as input to the model are calculated from the data collected by the FLAMBE system, driven by near-real-time active fire data from GOES WF_ABBA and MODIS Rapid Response. The smoke source function uses land cover data to predict properties of detected fires based on literature data from experimental burns. This scheme is very sensitive to the choice of land cover data sets. In areas of rapid land cover change, the use of static land cover data can produce artifactual changes in emissions unrelated to real changes in fire patterns. In South America, this change may be as large as 40% over five years. We demonstrate the impact of a modified land cover scheme on FLAMBE emissions and NAAPS forecasts, including a fire size algorithm developed using MODIS burned area data. We also describe the effects of corrections to emissions estimates for cloud and satellite coverage. We outline areas where existing data sources are incomplete and improvements are required to achieve accurate modeling of biomass burning emissions in real time.

  3. Best approach to impact assessment is to use empirically based or simulation models to forecast impacts. Environmental Sciences Division Publication No. 1538

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Christensen, S.W.

    1980-01-01

    This paper advocates the utility of mathematical models, as contrasted with statistical procedures and processional judgment, for assessing environmental impacts. While it would be desirable to use statistical tests to detect and estimate impacts, this is generally difficult or impossible to do, even with existing sources of impact. Empirical modeling, supported by statistical analyses when possible, is proffered as the logical alternative. Next, for purposes of forecasting impacts, the use of models as opposed to professional judgment or experience is considered. The conclusion is reached that, while models cannot answer all of the relevant questions, they can be used effectively and can address problems that are beyond the reach of statistical methods

  4. [Environment and lifestyle: Impacts on male fertility?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bendayan, M; Alter, L; Swierkowski-Blanchard, N; Caceres-Sanchez, L; Selva, J; Robin, G; Boitrelle, F

    2018-01-01

    In this last century, an increase of men infertility has been registered. It has been suggested that environmental factors could a negative impact over sperm quality. Among these factors, impact of environmental toxicant has been spread by media. In this review of scientific literature, we identify several environmental factors that could impact men fertility in a negative way. These factors are tobacco, marijuana, weight, body mass index, heat, nutritional state, electromagnetic waves and altitude. For each of these factors, the impact over men fertility, their mechanism, as well their influence over the use of Assisted Reproductive Technics are reported. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  5. An evaluation on environment radiation impact of pulsed reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gao Yingwei; Pu Gongxu; Li Jian

    1991-01-01

    The dose regulation, assessment scope and assessment method adopted by the environment impact evaluation for the pulsed reactor are discussed. The compute model, the compute programme and the compute result of the dose adopted for the model pulsed reactor are introduced. The probable environment radiation impact under normal status and accident status are also appraised

  6. Acceleration, Transport, Forecasting and Impact of solar energetic particles in the framework of the 'HESPERIA' HORIZON 2020 project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malandraki, Olga; Klein, Karl-Ludwig; Vainio, Rami; Agueda, Neus; Nunez, Marlon; Heber, Bernd; Buetikofer, Rolf; Sarlanis, Christos; Crosby, Norma

    2017-04-01

    High-energy solar energetic particles (SEPs) emitted from the Sun are a major space weather hazard motivating the development of predictive capabilities. In this work, the current state of knowledge on the origin and forecasting of SEP events will be reviewed. Subsequently, we will present the EU HORIZON2020 HESPERIA (High Energy Solar Particle Events foRecastIng and Analysis) project, its structure, its main scientific objectives and forecasting operational tools, as well as the added value to SEP research both from the observational as well as the SEP modelling perspective. The project addresses through multi-frequency observations and simulations the chain of processes from particle acceleration in the corona, particle transport in the magnetically complex corona and interplanetary space to the detection near 1 AU. Furthermore, publicly available software to invert neutron monitor observations of relativistic SEPs to physical parameters that can be compared with space-borne measurements at lower energies is provided for the first time by HESPERIA. In order to achieve these goals, HESPERIA is exploiting already available large datasets stored in databases such as the neutron monitor database (NMDB) and SEPServer that were developed under EU FP7 projects from 2008 to 2013. Forecasting results of the two novel SEP operational forecasting tools published via the consortium server of 'HESPERIA' will be presented, as well as some scientific key results on the acceleration, transport and impact on Earth of high-energy particles. Acknowledgement: This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 637324.

  7. Wastes, effluents and pollution. impact on environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ngo, Ch.; Regent, A.

    2008-01-01

    From concrete examples, the authors explain the nature, and the place of different pollution and wastes sources in our environment and the risks that make run. They bring some tracks to our modern communities that must react and imagine remedial actions to manage wastes, effluents and pollutions in order to make them harmless; this new edition enriches of a chapter on health and hygiene problems induced by the different contaminations of environment. (N.C.)

  8. The SPoRT-WRF: Evaluating the Impact of NASA Datasets on Convective Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zavodsky, Bradley; Kozlowski, Danielle; Case, Jonathan; Molthan, Andrew

    2012-01-01

    Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) seeks to improve short-term, regional weather forecasts using unique NASA products and capabilities SPoRT has developed a unique, real-time configuration of the NASA Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)WRF (ARW) that integrates all SPoRT modeling research data: (1) 2-km SPoRT Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Composite, (2) 3-km LIS with 1-km Greenness Vegetation Fraction (GVFs) (3) 45-km AIRS retrieved profiles. Transitioned this real-time forecast to NOAA's Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) as deterministic model at Experimental Forecast Program (EFP). Feedback from forecasters/participants and internal evaluation of SPoRT-WRF shows a cool, dry bias that appears to suppress convection likely related to methodology for assimilation of AIRS profiles Version 2 of the SPoRT-WRF will premier at the 2012 EFP and include NASA physics, cycling data assimilation methodology, better coverage of precipitation forcing, and new GVFs

  9. Regional PV power estimation and forecast to mitigate the impact of high photovoltaic penetration on electric grid.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierro, Marco; De Felice, Matteo; Maggioni, Enrico; Moser, David; Perotto, Alessandro; Spada, Francesco; Cornaro, Cristina

    2017-04-01

    The growing photovoltaic generation results in a stochastic variability of the electric demand that could compromise the stability of the grid and increase the amount of energy reserve and the energy imbalance cost. On regional scale, solar power estimation and forecast is becoming essential for Distribution System Operators, Transmission System Operator, energy traders, and aggregators of generation. Indeed the estimation of regional PV power can be used for PV power supervision and real time control of residual load. Mid-term PV power forecast can be employed for transmission scheduling to reduce energy imbalance and related cost of penalties, residual load tracking, trading optimization, secondary energy reserve assessment. In this context, a new upscaling method was developed and used for estimation and mid-term forecast of the photovoltaic distributed generation in a small area in the north of Italy under the control of a local DSO. The method was based on spatial clustering of the PV fleet and neural networks models that input satellite or numerical weather prediction data (centered on cluster centroids) to estimate or predict the regional solar generation. It requires a low computational effort and very few input information should be provided by users. The power estimation model achieved a RMSE of 3% of installed capacity. Intra-day forecast (from 1 to 4 hours) obtained a RMSE of 5% - 7% while the one and two days forecast achieve to a RMSE of 7% and 7.5%. A model to estimate the forecast error and the prediction intervals was also developed. The photovoltaic production in the considered region provided the 6.9% of the electric consumption in 2015. Since the PV penetration is very similar to the one observed at national level (7.9%), this is a good case study to analyse the impact of PV generation on the electric grid and the effects of PV power forecast on transmission scheduling and on secondary reserve estimation. It appears that, already with 7% of PV

  10. Impact of aquaculture on coastal marine environment

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Ansari, Z.A.; Abidi, S.A.H.

    expanding marine fish and shellfish farming, world over. Accelerated development in techniques and equipment in the last three decades has created negative environmental impact and the subject of increasing heated debate in the advanced countries...

  11. Sustainable environment management: impact of Agriculture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ashraf, M.; Fayyaz-ul-Hussan; Khan, M.A.

    2000-01-01

    Ever increasing demands of food are met through increased production by vertical or horizontal expansion. Vertical expansion needs increased inputs (fertilizer, chemicals, etc.) supply, leaving many negative effects on environment. Horizontal expansion limits the choice for future generations. Apart from agricultural activities, agro-based industries produce large amounts of waste material. Farm waste, along with industrial waste, used as fertilizer after necessary preparation would reduce the cost of production, increase production and clean the environment. Safe and proper disposal of saline water could reduce the risk of further salinization. Alternative methods of irrigation would solve the problem of waster logging. (author)

  12. Impact of wind power uncertainty forecasting on the market integration of wind energy in Spain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    González-Aparicio, I.; Zucker, A.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Reduction wind power forecasting uncertainty for day ahead and intraday markets. • Statistical relationship between total load and wind power generation. • Accurately forecast expected revenues from wind producer’s perspective. - Abstract: The growing share of electricity production from variable renewable energy sources increases the stochastic nature of the power system. This has repercussions on the markets for electricity. Deviations from forecasted production schedules require balancing of a generator’s position within a day. Short term products that are traded on power and/or reserve markets have been developed for this purpose, providing opportunities to actors who can offer flexibility in the short term. The value of flexibility is typically modelled using stochastic scenario extensions of dispatch models which requires, as a first step, understanding the nature of forecast uncertainties. This study provides a new approach for determining the forecast errors of wind power generation in the time period between the closure of the day ahead and the opening of the first intraday session using Spain as an example. The methodology has been developed using time series analysis for the years 2010–2013 to find the explanatory variables of the wind error variability by applying clustering techniques to reduce the range of uncertainty, and regressive techniques to forecast the probability density functions of the intra-day price. This methodology has been tested considering different system actions showing its suitability for developing intra-day bidding strategies and also for the generation of electricity generated from Renewable Energy Sources scenarios. This methodology could help a wind power producer to optimally bid into the intraday market based on more accurate scenarios, increasing their revenues and the system value of wind.

  13. The Solar Reflectance Index as a Tool to Forecast the Heat Released to the Urban Environment: Potentiality and Assessment Issues

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alberto Muscio

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Overheating of buildings and urban areas is a more and more severe issue in view of global warming combined with increasing urbanization. The thermal behavior of urban surfaces in the hot seasons is the result of a complex balance of construction and environmental parameters such as insulation level, thermal mass, shielding, and solar reflective capability on one side, and ambient conditions on the other side. Regulations makers and the construction industry have favored the use of parameters that allow the forecasting of the interaction between different material properties without the need for complex analyses. Among these, the solar reflectance index (SRI takes into account solar reflectance and thermal emittance to predict the thermal behavior of a surface subjected to solar radiation through a physically rigorous mathematical procedure that considers assigned air and sky temperatures, peak solar irradiance, and wind velocity. The correlation of SRI with the heat released to the urban environment is analyzed in this paper, as well as the sensitivity of its calculation procedure to variation of the input parameters, as possibly induced by the measurement methods used or by the material ageing.

  14. Early urban impact on Mediterranean coastal environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaniewski, David; Van Campo, Elise; Morhange, Christophe; Guiot, Joël; Zviely, Dov; Shaked, Idan; Otto, Thierry; Artzy, Michal

    2013-12-18

    A common belief is that, unlike today, ancient urban areas developed in a sustainable way within the environmental limits of local natural resources and the ecosystem's capacity to respond. This long-held paradigm is based on a weak knowledge of the processes underpinning the emergence of urban life and the rise of an urban-adapted environment in and beyond city boundaries. Here, we report a 6000-year record of environmental changes around the port city of Akko (Acre), Israel, to analyse ecological processes and patterns stemming from the emergence and growth of urban life. We show that early urban development deeply transformed pre-existing ecosystems, swiftly leading to an urban environment already governed by its own ecological rules and this, since the emergence of the cities.

  15. Impact Of Equestrian Tourism On The Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ioan Petroman

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Considereda sub-sector of horse raisin units, equestrian tourism is a form of moderntourism very popular among the young people as both an entertainingrecreational and adventure activity and a form of animal therapy in thetreatment and rehabilitation of autistic children; it is also a sub-type ofrural tourism, adventure tourism, or ecological tourism. Equestrian tourismpracticed without management strategies can have both positive and negativeeffects on the environment: it can affect roads by soil compaction, vegetationby the introduction of invasive plant species, and tourists by the noise andsmell. In order to reduce the negative effects on the environment, we need todevelop management strategies for the routes and visitors as well as for theareas where equestrian tourism is practiced; we also need to developenvironmental-friendly tourism products depending on the degree of difficulty,supplying accommodation at the horse farm and horse riding lessons,conferences, chart rides in the nature, and horseback holidays.

  16. Early urban impact on Mediterranean coastal environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaniewski, David; van Campo, Elise; Morhange, Christophe; Guiot, Joël; Zviely, Dov; Shaked, Idan; Otto, Thierry; Artzy, Michal

    2013-12-01

    A common belief is that, unlike today, ancient urban areas developed in a sustainable way within the environmental limits of local natural resources and the ecosystem's capacity to respond. This long-held paradigm is based on a weak knowledge of the processes underpinning the emergence of urban life and the rise of an urban-adapted environment in and beyond city boundaries. Here, we report a 6000-year record of environmental changes around the port city of Akko (Acre), Israel, to analyse ecological processes and patterns stemming from the emergence and growth of urban life. We show that early urban development deeply transformed pre-existing ecosystems, swiftly leading to an urban environment already governed by its own ecological rules and this, since the emergence of the cities.

  17. Impact Of Equestrian Tourism On The Environment

    OpenAIRE

    Ioan Petroman

    2015-01-01

    Considereda sub-sector of horse raisin units, equestrian tourism is a form of moderntourism very popular among the young people as both an entertainingrecreational and adventure activity and a form of animal therapy in thetreatment and rehabilitation of autistic children; it is also a sub-type ofrural tourism, adventure tourism, or ecological tourism. Equestrian tourismpracticed without management strategies can have both positive and negativeeffects on the environment: it can affect roads by...

  18. Impact of environment on marketing strategy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stanišić Olivera

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Today companies faced with manifold shifts arose in business environment recently but particularly during the last two decades. Such issues ask for sharp response rate by companies as well as very solid level of marketing intelligence, research and customer loyalty development. Paper discuss the importance of knowing what's going on in the target market within PEST approach including unavoidable technology issues. General focus is directed to needs of an appropriate marketing strategy development.

  19. AMSR2 all-sky radiance assimilation and its impact on the analysis and forecast of Hurricane Sandy with a limited-area data assimilation system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chun Yang

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available A method to assimilate all-sky radiances from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2 was developed within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model's data assimilation (WRFDA system. The four essential elements are: (1 extending the community radiative transform model's (CRTM interface to include hydrometeor profiles; (2 using total water Qt as the moisture control variable; (3 using a warm-rain physics scheme for partitioning the Qt increment into individual increments of water vapour, cloud liquid water and rain; and (4 adopting a symmetric observation error model for all-sky radiance assimilation.Compared to a benchmark experiment with no AMSR2 data, the impact of assimilating clear-sky or all-sky AMSR2 radiances on the analysis and forecast of Hurricane Sandy (2012 was assessed through analysis/forecast cycling experiments using WRF and WRFDA's three-dimensional variational (3DVAR data assimilation scheme. With more cloud/precipitation-affected data being assimilated around tropical cyclone (TC core areas in the all-sky AMSR2 assimilation experiment, better analyses were obtained in terms of the TC's central sea level pressure (CSLP, warm-core structure and cloud distribution. Substantial (>20 % error reduction in track and CSLP forecasts was achieved from both clear-sky and all-sky AMSR2 assimilation experiments, and this improvement was consistent from the analysis time to 72-h forecasts. Moreover, the all-sky assimilation experiment consistently yielded better track and CSLP forecasts than the clear-sky did for all forecast lead times, due to a better analysis in the TC core areas. Positive forecast impact from assimilating AMSR2 radiances is also seen when verified against the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF analysis and the Stage IV precipitation analysis, with an overall larger positive impact from the all-sky assimilation experiment.

  20. Impact of a Diagnostic Pressure Equation Constraint on Tornadic Supercell Thunderstorm Forecasts Initialized Using 3DVAR Radar Data Assimilation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guoqing Ge

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available A diagnostic pressure equation constraint has been incorporated into a storm-scale three-dimensional variational (3DVAR data assimilation system. This diagnostic pressure equation constraint (DPEC is aimed to improve dynamic consistency among different model variables so as to produce better data assimilation results and improve the subsequent forecasts. Ge et al. (2012 described the development of DPEC and testing of it with idealized experiments. DPEC was also applied to a real supercell case, but only radial velocity was assimilated. In this paper, DPEC is further applied to two real tornadic supercell thunderstorm cases, where both radial velocity and radar reflectivity data are assimilated. The impact of DPEC on radar data assimilation is examined mainly based on the storm forecasts. It is found that the experiments using DPEC generally predict higher low-level vertical vorticity than the experiments not using DPEC near the time of observed tornadoes. Therefore, it is concluded that the use of DPEC improves the forecast of mesocyclone rotation within supercell thunderstorms. The experiments using different weighting coefficients generate similar results. This suggests that DPEC is not very sensitive to the weighting coefficients.

  1. Calibration and validation of earthquake catastrophe models. Case study: Impact Forecasting Earthquake Model for Algeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trendafiloski, G.; Gaspa Rebull, O.; Ewing, C.; Podlaha, A.; Magee, B.

    2012-04-01

    Calibration and validation are crucial steps in the production of the catastrophe models for the insurance industry in order to assure the model's reliability and to quantify its uncertainty. Calibration is needed in all components of model development including hazard and vulnerability. Validation is required to ensure that the losses calculated by the model match those observed in past events and which could happen in future. Impact Forecasting, the catastrophe modelling development centre of excellence within Aon Benfield, has recently launched its earthquake model for Algeria as a part of the earthquake model for the Maghreb region. The earthquake model went through a detailed calibration process including: (1) the seismic intensity attenuation model by use of macroseismic observations and maps from past earthquakes in Algeria; (2) calculation of the country-specific vulnerability modifiers by use of past damage observations in the country. The use of Benouar, 1994 ground motion prediction relationship was proven as the most appropriate for our model. Calculation of the regional vulnerability modifiers for the country led to 10% to 40% larger vulnerability indexes for different building types compared to average European indexes. The country specific damage models also included aggregate damage models for residential, commercial and industrial properties considering the description of the buildings stock given by World Housing Encyclopaedia and the local rebuilding cost factors equal to 10% for damage grade 1, 20% for damage grade 2, 35% for damage grade 3, 75% for damage grade 4 and 100% for damage grade 5. The damage grades comply with the European Macroseismic Scale (EMS-1998). The model was validated by use of "as-if" historical scenario simulations of three past earthquake events in Algeria M6.8 2003 Boumerdes, M7.3 1980 El-Asnam and M7.3 1856 Djidjelli earthquake. The calculated return periods of the losses for client market portfolio align with the

  2. Forecasting the Impact of an 1859-calibre Superstorm on Satellite Resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Odenwald, Sten; Green, James; Taylor, William

    2005-01-01

    We have assembled a database of operational satellites in orbit as of 2004, and have developed a series of simple models to assess the economic impacts to this resource caused by various scenarios of superstorm events possible during the next sunspot cycle between 2010 and 2014. Despite the apparent robustness of our satellite assets against the kinds of storms we have encountered during the satellite era, our models suggest a potential economic loss exceeding $10(exp 11) for satellite replacement and lost profitability caused by a once a century single storm similar to the 1859 superstorm. From a combination of power system and attitude control system (the most vulnerable) failures, we estimate that 80 satellites (LEO, MEO, GEO) may be disabled as a consequence of a superstorm event. Additional consequences may include the failure of many of the GPS, GLONASS and Galileo satellite systems in MEO. Approximately 98 LEO satellites that normally would not have re-entered for many decades, may prematurely de-orbit in ca 2021 as a result of the temporarily increased atmospheric drag caused by the superstorm event occurring in 2012. The $10(exp 11) International Space Station may lose at least 15 kilometers of altitude, placing it in critical need for re-boosting by an amount that is potentially outside the range of typical Space Shuttle operations during the previous solar maximum in ca 2000, and at a time when NASA plans to decommission the Space Shuttle. Several LEO satellites will unexpectedly be placed on orbits that enter the ISS zone of avoidance, requiring some action by ground personnel and ISS astronauts to avoid close encounters. Radiation effects on astronauts have also been considered and could include a range of possibilities from acute radiation sickness for astronauts inside spacecraft, to near-lethal doses during EVAs. The specifics depends very sensitively on the spectral hardness of the accompanying SPE event. Currently, the ability to forecast extreme

  3. Modeling the impact of forecast-based regime switches on macroeconomic time series

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    K. Bel (Koen); R. Paap (Richard)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractForecasts of key macroeconomic variables may lead to policy changes of governments, central banks and other economic agents. Policy changes in turn lead to structural changes in macroeconomic time series models. To describe this phenomenon we introduce a logistic smooth transition

  4. Integration of wind generation forecasts. Volume 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahlstrom, M.; Zavadil, B.; Jones, L.

    2005-01-01

    WindLogics is a company that specializes in atmospheric modelling, visualization and fine-scale forecasting systems for the wind power industry. A background of the organization was presented. The complexities of wind modelling were discussed. Issues concerning location and terrain, shear, diurnal and interannual variability were reviewed. It was suggested that wind power producers should aim to be mainstream, and that variability should be considered as intrinsic to fuel supply. Various utility operating impacts were outlined. Details of an Xcel NSP wind integration study were presented, as well as a studies conducted in New York state and Colorado. It was concluded that regulations and load following impacts with wind energy integration are modest. Overall impacts are dominated by costs incurred to accommodate wind generation variability and uncertainty in the day-ahead time frame. Cost impacts can be reduced with adjustments to operating strategies, improvements in wind forecasting and access to real-time markets. Details of WindLogic's wind energy forecast system were presented, as well as examples of day ahead and hour ahead forecasts and wind speed and power forecasts. Screenshots of control room integration, EMS integration and simulations were presented. Details of a utility-scale wind energy forecasting system funded by Xcel Renewable Development Fund (RDF) were also presented. The goal of the system was to optimize the way that wind forecast information is integrated into the control room environment. Project components were outlined. It was concluded that accurate day-ahead forecasting can lead to significant asset optimization. It was recommended that wind plants share data, and aim to resolve issues concerning grid codes and instrumentation. refs., tabs., figs

  5. The impact of underwater glider observations in the forecast of Hurricane Gonzalo (2014)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goni, G. J.; Domingues, R. M.; Kim, H. S.; Domingues, R. M.; Halliwell, G. R., Jr.; Bringas, F.; Morell, J. M.; Pomales, L.; Baltes, R.

    2017-12-01

    The tropical Atlantic basin is one of seven global regions where tropical cyclones (TC) are commonly observed to originate and intensify from June to November. On average, approximately 12 TCs travel through the region every year, frequently affecting coastal, and highly populated areas. In an average year, 2 to 3 of them are categorized as intense hurricanes. Given the appropriate atmospheric conditions, TC intensification has been linked to ocean conditions, such as increased ocean heat content and enhanced salinity stratification near the surface. While errors in hurricane track forecasts have been reduced during the last years, errors in intensity forecasts remain mostly unchanged. Several studies have indicated that the use of in situ observations has the potential to improve the representation of the ocean to correctly initialize coupled hurricane intensity forecast models. However, a sustained in situ ocean observing system in the tropical North Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea dedicated to measuring subsurface thermal and salinity fields in support of TC intensity studies and forecasts has yet to be implemented. Autonomous technologies offer new and cost-effective opportunities to accomplish this objective. We highlight here a partnership effort that utilize underwater gliders to better understand air-sea processes during high wind events, and are particularly geared towards improving hurricane intensity forecasts. Results are presented for Hurricane Gonzalo (2014), where glider observations obtained in the tropical Atlantic: Helped to provide an accurate description of the upper ocean conditions, that included the presence of a low salinity barrier layer; Allowed a detailed analysis of the upper ocean response to hurricane force winds of Gonzalo; Improved the initialization of the ocean in a coupled ocean-atmosphere numerical model; and together with observations from other ocean observing platforms, substantially reduced the error in intensity forecast

  6. Impact of Moist Physics Complexity on Tropical Cyclone Simulations from the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalina, E. A.; Biswas, M.; Newman, K.; Grell, E. D.; Bernardet, L.; Frimel, J.; Carson, L.

    2017-12-01

    The parameterization of moist physics in numerical weather prediction models plays an important role in modulating tropical cyclone structure, intensity, and evolution. The Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast system (HWRF), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's operational model for tropical cyclone prediction, uses the Scale-Aware Simplified Arakawa-Schubert (SASAS) cumulus scheme and a modified version of the Ferrier-Aligo (FA) microphysics scheme to parameterize moist physics. The FA scheme contains a number of simplifications that allow it to run efficiently in an operational setting, which includes prescribing values for hydrometeor number concentrations (i.e., single-moment microphysics) and advecting the total condensate rather than the individual hydrometeor species. To investigate the impact of these simplifying assumptions on the HWRF forecast, the FA scheme was replaced with the more complex double-moment Thompson microphysics scheme, which individually advects cloud ice, cloud water, rain, snow, and graupel. Retrospective HWRF forecasts of tropical cyclones that occurred in the Atlantic and eastern Pacific ocean basins from 2015-2017 were then simulated and compared to those produced by the operational HWRF configuration. Both traditional model verification metrics (i.e., tropical cyclone track and intensity) and process-oriented metrics (e.g., storm size, precipitation structure, and heating rates from the microphysics scheme) will be presented and compared. The sensitivity of these results to the cumulus scheme used (i.e., the operational SASAS versus the Grell-Freitas scheme) also will be examined. Finally, the merits of replacing the moist physics schemes that are used operationally with the alternatives tested here will be discussed from a standpoint of forecast accuracy versus computational resources.

  7. Methodology and forecast products for the optimal offering of ancillary services from wind in a market environment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik; Pinson, Pierre

    . This enables the estimation of return levels below which the extreme wind power forecast error events occur only at a specified rate, e.g. once a month or once every year. The techniques allows extrapolation beyond the available data period. In the study data from 1.5 years is used. It consists of hourly wind...... power production in the two regions of Denmark (DK1 and DK2) and corresponding wind power forecasts. The wind power forecasts are generated using the software WPPT and are based on the outcome of three numerical weather prediction models. They cover horizons from 1 to 42 hours ahead in time...

  8. An Improved Approach for Forecasting Ecological Impacts from Future Drilling in Unconventional Shale Oil and Gas Plays.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolaver, Brad D; Pierre, Jon Paul; Ikonnikova, Svetlana A; Andrews, John R; McDaid, Guinevere; Ryberg, Wade A; Hibbitts, Toby J; Duran, Charles M; Labay, Benjamin J; LaDuc, Travis J

    2018-04-13

    Directional well drilling and hydraulic fracturing has enabled energy production from previously inaccessible resources, but caused vegetation conversion and landscape fragmentation, often in relatively undisturbed habitats. We improve forecasts of future ecological impacts from unconventional oil and gas play developments using a new, more spatially-explicit approach. We applied an energy production outlook model, which used geologic and economic data from thousands of wells and three oil price scenarios, to map future drilling patterns and evaluate the spatial distribution of vegetation conversion and habitat impacts. We forecast where future well pad construction may be most intense, illustrating with an example from the Eagle Ford Shale Play of Texas. We also illustrate the ecological utility of this approach using the Spot-tailed Earless Lizard (Holbrookia lacerata) as the focal species, which historically occupied much of the Eagle Ford and awaits a federal decision for possible Endangered Species Act protection. We found that ~17,000-45,500 wells would be drilled 2017‒2045 resulting in vegetation conversion of ~26,485-70,623 ha (0.73-1.96% of pre-development vegetation), depending on price scenario ($40-$80/barrel). Grasslands and row crop habitats were most affected (2.30 and 2.82% areal vegetation reduction). Our approach improves forecasts of where and to what extent future energy development in unconventional plays may change land-use and ecosystem services, enabling natural resource managers to anticipate and direct on-the-ground conservation actions to places where they will most effectively mitigate ecological impacts of well pads and associated infrastructure.

  9. Crime: impacts of urban design and environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paula Santana

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The criminal research has confirmed that there are clear patterns of crime, with concentrations in specific places at specific times. That is to say, incidence of crime are not distributed randomly; rather, there are certain areas in cities that are relatively small, but where crimes occur much more frequently than elsewhere (the so-called “hotspots”, making them highly vulnerable and predictable. Urban design and environment may play a part in the decision of whether or not to commit a crime; for example, the lack of natural vigilance, poor lighting and other variables mean that a small area may easily be transformed into a potential crime hotspot. The relationship between specific aspects of urban design and the formation of “hotspots” is present in the theory of “Crime Prevention through Environmental Design” (CPTED. This paper examines the relationship between the “hotspots” and the characteristics of the environment, in accordance with CPTED Index, in one city from the Lisbon Metropolitan Area (Amadora. The results highlight the need to reassess specific elements of urban design. This fact has drawn attention to the study of localities and urban design.

  10. Forecasting the combined effects of urbanization and climate change on stream ecosystems: from impacts to management options

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Kären C.; Palmer, Margaret A.; Pizzuto, James E.; Moglen, Glenn E.; Angermeier, Paul L.; Hilderbrand, Robert H.; Dettinger, Mike; Hayhoe, Katharine

    2015-01-01

    Streams collect runoff, heat, and sediment from their watersheds, making them highly vulnerable to anthropogenic disturbances such as urbanization and climate change. Forecasting the effects of these disturbances using process-based models is critical to identifying the form and magnitude of likely impacts. Here, we integrate a new biotic model with four previously developed physical models (downscaled climate projections, stream hydrology, geomorphology, and water temperature) to predict how stream fish growth and reproduction will most probably respond to shifts in climate and urbanization over the next several decades.

  11. Impact of MODIS High-Resolution Sea-Surface Temperatures on WRF Forecasts at NWS Miami, FL

    Science.gov (United States)

    Case, Jonathan L.; LaCasse, Katherine M.; Dembek, Scott R.; Santos, Pablo; Lapenta, William M.

    2007-01-01

    Over the past few years,studies at the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center have suggested that the use of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) composite sea-surface temperature (SST) products in regional weather forecast models can have a significant positive impact on short-term numerical weather prediction in coastal regions. The recent paper by LaCasse et al. (2007, Monthly Weather Review) highlights lower atmospheric differences in regional numerical simulations over the Florida offshore waters using 2-km SST composites derived from the MODIS instrument aboard the polar-orbiting Aqua and Terra Earth Observing System satellites. To help quantify the value of this impact on NWS Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs), the SPoRT Center and the NWS WFO at Miami, FL (MIA) are collaborating on a project to investigate the impact of using the high-resolution MODIS SST fields within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) prediction system. The scientific hypothesis being tested is: More accurate specification of the lower-boundary forcing within WRF will result in improved land/sea fluxes and hence, more accurate evolution of coastal mesoscale circulations and the associated sensible weather elements. The NWS MIA is currently running the WRF system in real-time to support daily forecast operations, using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model dynamical core within the NWS Science and Training Resource Center's Environmental Modeling System (EMS) software; The EMS is a standalone modeling system capable of downloading the necessary daily datasets, and initializing, running and displaying WRF forecasts in the NWS Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) with little intervention required by forecasters. Twenty-seven hour forecasts are run daily with start times of 0300,0900, 1500, and 2100 UTC on a domain with 4-km grid spacing covering the southern half of Florida and the far

  12. Using a Software Tool in Forecasting: a Case Study of Sales Forecasting Taking into Account Data Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fabianová, Jana; Kačmáry, Peter; Molnár, Vieroslav; Michalik, Peter

    2016-10-01

    Forecasting is one of the logistics activities and a sales forecast is the starting point for the elaboration of business plans. Forecast accuracy affects the business outcomes and ultimately may significantly affect the economic stability of the company. The accuracy of the prediction depends on the suitability of the use of forecasting methods, experience, quality of input data, time period and other factors. The input data are usually not deterministic but they are often of random nature. They are affected by uncertainties of the market environment, and many other factors. Taking into account the input data uncertainty, the forecast error can by reduced. This article deals with the use of the software tool for incorporating data uncertainty into forecasting. Proposals are presented of a forecasting approach and simulation of the impact of uncertain input parameters to the target forecasted value by this case study model. The statistical analysis and risk analysis of the forecast results is carried out including sensitivity analysis and variables impact analysis.

  13. Development of a High Resolution Weather Forecast Model for Mesoamerica Using the NASA Nebula Cloud Computing Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molthan, Andrew L.; Case, Jonathan L.; Venner, Jason; Moreno-Madrinan, Max. J.; Delgado, Francisco

    2012-01-01

    Over the past two years, scientists in the Earth Science Office at NASA fs Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) have explored opportunities to apply cloud computing concepts to support near real ]time weather forecast modeling via the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Collaborators at NASA fs Short ]term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center and the SERVIR project at Marshall Space Flight Center have established a framework that provides high resolution, daily weather forecasts over Mesoamerica through use of the NASA Nebula Cloud Computing Platform at Ames Research Center. Supported by experts at Ames, staff at SPoRT and SERVIR have established daily forecasts complete with web graphics and a user interface that allows SERVIR partners access to high resolution depictions of weather in the next 48 hours, useful for monitoring and mitigating meteorological hazards such as thunderstorms, heavy precipitation, and tropical weather that can lead to other disasters such as flooding and landslides. This presentation will describe the framework for establishing and providing WRF forecasts, example applications of output provided via the SERVIR web portal, and early results of forecast model verification against available surface ] and satellite ]based observations.

  14. Interpreting the impact of flood forecasts by combining policy analysis studies and flood defence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Slomp Robert

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Flood forecasting is necessary to save lives and reduce damages. Reducing damages is important to save livelihoods and to reduce the recovery time. Flood alerts should contain expected time of the event, location and extent of the event. A flood alert is not only one message but part of a rehearsed flow of information using multiple canals. First people have to accept the fact that there might be a threat and what the threat is about. People need a reference to understand the situation and be aware of possible measures they can take to assure their own safety and reduce damages. Information to the general public has to be consistent with the information used by emergency services and has to be very clear about consequences and context of possible measures (as shelter in place or preventive evacuation. Emergency services should monitor how the public is responding to adapt their communication en operation during a crisis. Flood warnings and emergency services are often coordinated by different government organisations. This is an extra handicap for having consistent information out on time for people to use. In an information based society, where everyone has twitter, email and a camera, public organisations may have to trust the public more and send out the correct information as it comes in. In the Netherlands Rijkswaterstaat, the National Water Authority and the National Public Works Department, is responsible for or involved in forecasting in case of floods, policy studies on flood risk, policy studies on maintenance, assessment and design of flood defences, elaborating rules and regulations for flood defences, advice on crisis management to the national government and for maintaining the main infrastructure in the Netherlands (high ways and water ways. The Water Management Center in the Netherlands (WMCN has developed a number of models to provide flood forecasts. WMCN is run for and by all managers of flood defences and is hosted by

  15. Impact of a high density GPS network on the operational forecast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Faccani

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Global Positioning System Zenith Total Delay (GPS ZTD can provide information about the water vapour in atmosphere. Its assimilation into the analysis used to initialize a model can then improve the weather forecast, giving the right amount of moisture and reducing the model spinup. In the last year, an high density GPS network has been created on the Basilicata region (south of Italy by the Italian Space Agency in the framework of a national project named MAGIC2. MAGIC2 is the Italian follow on of the EC project MAGIC has. Daily operational data assimilation experiments are performed since December 2003. The results show that the assimilation of GPS ZTD improves the forecast especially during the transition from winter to spring even if a no very high model resolution (9km is used.

  16. Forecasting day ahead electricity spot prices: The impact of the EXAA to other European electricity markets

    OpenAIRE

    Ziel, Florian; Steinert, Rick; Husmann, Sven

    2015-01-01

    In our paper we analyze the relationship between the day-ahead electricity price of the Energy Exchange Austria (EXAA) and other day-ahead electricity prices in Europe. We focus on markets, which settle their prices after the EXAA, which enables traders to include the EXAA price into their calculations. For each market we employ econometric models to incorporate the EXAA price and compare them with their counterparts without the price of the Austrian exchange. By employing a forecasting study...

  17. Pharmaceuticals and Their Impact on the Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomić, S

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Pharmaceuticals are a class of emerging environmental contaminants that are extensively and increasingly being used in human and veterinary medicine and are released continuously into the environment. A variety of pharmaceuticals have been detected in many environmental samples worldwide. The establishment of chemical analysis methods able to determine more polar compounds allow the determination and identification of trace quantities of drugs and their metabolites. Most regulatory agencies require that environmental risk assessment is performed as an integral part of their approval procedures for the marketing for medicinal products. Marketing approval for medicinal products in the European Union is regulated by the Directive 2001/83/EC. Based on the Directive, the European Medicines Agency (EMA has published guidelines describing the procedure for the environmental risk assessment for medicinal products marketed in the EU. The requirements for the Environmental risk assessment (ERA in Croatia are regulated by the Medicinal Products Act (Official Gazette No. 71/07 and the Ordinance on the Procedure and Method for Granting Marketing Authorisations for Medicinal Products (Official Gazette No. 113/08.

  18. Impact of data assimilation on ocean current forecasts in the Angola Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillipson, Luke; Toumi, Ralf

    2017-06-01

    The ocean current predictability in the data limited Angola Basin was investigated using the Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS) with four-dimensional variational data assimilation. Six experiments were undertaken comprising a baseline case of the assimilation of salinity/temperature profiles and satellite sea surface temperature, with the subsequent addition of altimetry, OSCAR (satellite-derived sea surface currents), drifters, altimetry and drifters combined, and OSCAR and drifters combined. The addition of drifters significantly improves Lagrangian predictability in comparison to the baseline case as well as the addition of either altimetry or OSCAR. OSCAR assimilation only improves Lagrangian predictability as much as altimetry assimilation. On average the assimilation of either altimetry or OSCAR with drifter velocities does not significantly improve Lagrangian predictability compared to the drifter assimilation alone, even degrading predictability in some cases. When the forecast current speed is large, it is more likely that the combination improves trajectory forecasts. Conversely, when the currents are weaker, it is more likely that the combination degrades the trajectory forecast.

  19. Radiation and environment - impact studies awareness

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boniface Ekechukwu; Mohd. Zohadie Bardaie

    2005-01-01

    Radiation, which is simply defined as energy, that travels in the form of waves or particles has both positive and negative effects on humans. This has necessitated a careful study on how to create awareness on the 'two-edge sword'. Since radiation cannot be removed from our environment we, however, reduce our risks by controlling our exposure to it through various ways. Understanding radiation and radioactivity will help us make informed decisions about our exposure. Many difference types of radiation have range of energy that form electromagnetic spectrum. Their sources include nuclear power plants, nuclear weapons, and medicine. Others include, microwaves, radar, electrical power lines, cellular phones, and sunlight' and so on. However, the radiation used in nuclear power, nuclear weapons, and medicine has enough energy to break chemical bonds, and is referred to as 'ionizing radiation', which is dangerous to life. Because of this negative effect of radiation there is common fear and myths related to radiation, radioactivity, uranium mining and milling, and the nuclear industry. This radiation education and energy-environmental education attempt to dispel the common fears and myths relating to them in so far as there is perfect protection from harmful exposure and abuse. The design of an integrated unit of study radiation and environmental energy uses arts of language, life skills, skill designs, social studies and mathematical skills in creating understanding and abilities necessary to do scientific inquiry by the students without abuse or danger. The education unit is designed to assess materials for, factual information and appropriate language and identification of potential bias in environmental education materials and evaluate materials in perspective of cultural and ethnic upbringing. (author)

  20. The Impacts of Satellite Remotely Sensed Winds and Total Precipitable Vapour in WRF Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diandong Ren

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This study assesses the impact assimilating the scatterometer near-surface wind observations and total precipitable water from the SSMI, into WRF on genesis and track forecasting of four tropical cyclones (TCs. These TCs are selected to be representative of different intensity categories and basins. Impact is via a series of data denial experiments that systematically exclude the remote sensed information. Compared with the control case, in which only the final analysis atmospheric variables are used to initialize and provide the lateral boundary conditions, the data assimilation runs performed consistently better, but with very different skill levels for the different TCs. Eliassen-Palm flux analyses are employed. It is confirmed that if a polar orbital satellite footprint passes over the TC’s critical genesis region, the forecast will profit most from assimilating the remotely sensed information. If the critical genesis region lies within an interorbital gap then, regardless of how strong the TC later becomes (e.g., Katrina 2005, the improvement from assimilating near-surface winds and total precipitable water in the model prediction is severely limited. This underpins the need for a synergy of data from different scatterometers/radiometers. Other approaches are suggested to improve the accuracy in the prediction of TC genesis and tracks.

  1. The impact of weather and ocean forecasting on hydrocarbon production and pollution management in the Gulf of Mexico

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaiser, Mark J.; Pulsipher, Allan G.

    2007-01-01

    Over the past 2 years, the vulnerability of offshore production in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) has been brought to light by extensive damage to oil and gas facilities and pipelines resulting from Hurricanes Ivan, Katrina, and Rita. The occurrences of extreme weather regularly force operators to shut-down production, cease drilling and construction activities, and evacuate personnel. Loop currents and eddies can also impact offshore operations and delay installation and drilling activities and reduce the effectiveness of oil spill response strategies. The purpose of this paper is to describe how weather and ocean forecasting impact production activities and pollution management in the GOM. Physical outcome and decision models in support of production and development activities and oil spill response management are presented, and the expected economic benefits that may result from the implementation of an integrated ocean observation network in the region are summarized. Improved ocean observation systems are expected to reduce the uncertainty of forecasting and to enhance the value of ocean/weather information throughout the Gulf region. The source of benefits and the size of activity from which improved ocean observation benefits may be derived are estimated for energy development and production activities and oil spill response management

  2. Impact of streamflow data assimilation and length of the verification period on the quality of short-term ensemble hydrologic forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randrianasolo, A.; Thirel, G.; Ramos, M. H.; Martin, E.

    2014-11-01

    Data assimilation has gained wide recognition in hydrologic forecasting due mainly to its capacity to improve the quality of short-term forecasts. In this study, a comparative analysis is conducted to assess the impact of discharge data assimilation on the quality of streamflow forecasts issued by two different modeling conceptualizations of catchment response. The sensitivity of the performance metrics to the length of the verification period is also investigated. The hydrological modeling approaches are: the coupled physically-based hydro-meteorological model SAFRAN-ISBA-MODCOU, a distributed model with a data assimilation procedure that uses streamflow measurements to assess the initial state of soil water content that optimizes discharge simulations, and the lumped soil moisture-accounting type rainfall-runoff model GRP, which assimilates directly the last observed discharge to update the state of the routing store. The models are driven by the weather ensemble prediction system PEARP of Météo-France, which is based on the global spectral ARPEGE model zoomed over France. It runs 11 perturbed members for a forecast range of 60 h. Forecast and observed data are available for 86 catchments over a 17-month period (March 2005-July 2006) for both models and for 82 catchments over a 52-month period (April 2005-July 2009) for the GRP model. The first dataset is used to investigate the impact of streamflow data assimilation on forecast quality, while the second is used to evaluate the impact of the length of the verification period on the assessment of forecast quality. Forecasts are compared to daily observed discharges and scores are computed for lead times 24 h and 48 h. Results indicate an overall good performance of both hydrological models forced by the PEARP ensemble predictions when the models are run with their data assimilation procedures. In general, when data assimilation is performed, the quality of the forecasts increases: median differences between

  3. Forecast Combinations

    OpenAIRE

    Timmermann, Allan G

    2005-01-01

    Forecast combinations have frequently been found in empirical studies to produce better forecasts on average than methods based on the ex-ante best individual forecasting model. Moreover, simple combinations that ignore correlations between forecast errors often dominate more refined combination schemes aimed at estimating the theoretically optimal combination weights. In this paper we analyse theoretically the factors that determine the advantages from combining forecasts (for example, the d...

  4. Forecast combinations

    OpenAIRE

    Aiolfi, Marco; Capistrán, Carlos; Timmermann, Allan

    2010-01-01

    We consider combinations of subjective survey forecasts and model-based forecasts from linear and non-linear univariate specifications as well as multivariate factor-augmented models. Empirical results suggest that a simple equal-weighted average of survey forecasts outperform the best model-based forecasts for a majority of macroeconomic variables and forecast horizons. Additional improvements can in some cases be gained by using a simple equal-weighted average of survey and model-based fore...

  5. Analysis of ecological environment impact of coal exploitation and utilization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Baoliu; Luo, Hong; Lv, Lianhong; Wang, Jian; Zhang, Baoshi

    2018-02-01

    Based on the theory of life cycle assessment, the ecological and environmental impacts of coal mining, processing, utilization and transportation will be analyzed, with analysing the status of china’s coal exploitation and utilization as the basis, it will find out the ecological and environmental impact in the development and utilization of coal, mainly consist of ecological impact including land damage, water resource destructionand biodiversity loss, etc., while the environmental impact include air, water, solid waste pollutions. Finally with a summary of the ecological and environmental problems, to propose solutionsand countermeasures to promote the rational development and consumption of coal, as well as to reduce the impact of coal production and consumption on the ecological environment, finally to achieve the coordinated development of energy and the environment.

  6. Impact of Three-Phase Relative Permeability and Hysteresis Models on Forecasts of Storage Associated With CO2-EOR

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Wei; McPherson, Brian; Pan, Feng; Dai, Zhenxue; Moodie, Nathan; Xiao, Ting

    2018-02-01

    Geological CO2 sequestration in conjunction with enhanced oil recovery (CO2-EOR) includes complex multiphase flow processes compared to CO2 storage in deep saline aquifers. Two of the most important factors affecting multiphase flow in CO2-EOR are three-phase relative permeability and associated hysteresis, both of which are difficult to measure and are usually represented by numerical interpolation models. The purpose of this study is to improve understanding of (1) the relative impacts of different three-phase relative permeability models and hysteresis models on CO2 trapping mechanisms, and (2) uncertainty associated with these two factors. Four different three-phase relative permeability models and three hysteresis models were applied to simulations of an active CO2-EOR site, the SACROC unit located in western Texas. To eliminate possible bias of deterministic parameters, we utilized a sequential Gaussian simulation technique to generate 50 realizations to describe heterogeneity of porosity and permeability, based on data obtained from well logs and seismic survey. Simulation results of forecasted CO2 storage suggested that (1) the choice of three-phase relative permeability model and hysteresis model led to noticeable impacts on forecasted CO2 sequestration capacity; (2) impacts of three-phase relative permeability models and hysteresis models on CO2 trapping are small during the CO2-EOR injection period, and increase during the post-EOR CO2 injection period; (3) the specific choice of hysteresis model is more important relative to the choice of three-phase relative permeability model; and (4) using the recommended three-phase WAG (Water-Alternating-Gas) hysteresis model may increase the impact of three-phase relative permeability models and uncertainty due to heterogeneity.

  7. Methodology for impact assessment in the estuarine/marine environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haven, K.F.

    1975-01-01

    Impacts on the estuarine/marine environment can be assessed in economic terms by tracing the impact flow out of the economic sector through the marine environment and back into the economic sector as changes in natural resource availability. An impact can then be measured by the changes created in the economic sector by changes in resource availability. Primary emphasis is placed on the development of an appropriate ecological model of the estuarine environment for this purpose. Two types, an ecological input/output model and a dynamic (difference equation) model, are proposed. Acceptability criteria for these models include the ability to track lethal and sublethal, direct and indirect (food web), and short- and long-term effects of a variety of pollutants related to the production and use of various energy resources

  8. Factors controlling storm impacts on coastal barriers and beaches - A preliminary basis for near real-time forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morton, R.A.

    2002-01-01

    Analysis of ground conditions and meteorological and oceanographic parameters for some of the most severe Atlantic and Gulf Coast storms in the U.S. reveals the primary factors affecting morphological storm responses of beaches and barrier islands. The principal controlling factors are storm characteristics, geographic position relative to storm path, timing of storm events, duration of wave exposure, wind stress, degree of flow confinement, antecedent topography and geologic framework, sediment textures, vegetative cover, and type and density of coastal development. A classification of commonly observed storm responses demonstrates the sequential interrelations among (1) land elevations, (2) water elevations in the ocean and adjacent lagoon (if present), and (3) stages of rising water during the storm. The predictable coastal responses, in relative order from high frequency beach erosion to low frequency barrier inundation, include: beach erosion, berm migration, dune erosion, washover terrace construction, perched fan deposition, sheetwash, washover channel incision, washout formation, and forced and unforced ebb flow. Near real-time forecasting of expected storm impacts is possible if the following information is available for the coast: a detailed morphological and topographic characterization, accurate storm-surge and wave-runup models, the real-time reporting of storm parameters, accurate forecasts of the storm position relative to a particular coastal segment, and a conceptual model of geological processes that encompasses observed morphological changes caused by extreme storms.

  9. Impact of multi-resolution analysis of artificial intelligence models inputs on multi-step ahead river flow forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badrzadeh, Honey; Sarukkalige, Ranjan; Jayawardena, A. W.

    2013-12-01

    Discrete wavelet transform was applied to decomposed ANN and ANFIS inputs.Novel approach of WNF with subtractive clustering applied for flow forecasting.Forecasting was performed in 1-5 step ahead, using multi-variate inputs.Forecasting accuracy of peak values and longer lead-time significantly improved.

  10. Study of the impact of satellite data in the analysis and forecasting of a SACZ episode using G3DVar

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Azevedo, H. B.; Goncalves, L.

    2013-05-01

    Earth observations from satellite have great importance and impact, in particular for operational weather and climate forecast centers in the Southern Hemisphere such as the Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies (CPTEC from its Portuguese acronym), a division of the Brazilian National Institute for Space Research (INPE from its Portuguese acronym). It is well known that such data is critical, in particular over Southern Hemisphere oceans where there is a lack of other information sources e.g. radiosonde and aircraft, where satellite data provides excellent spatial coverage with relatively frequent sampling in addition to sweeping continents, deserts, woodlands and other remote areas. Hence, studies like OSEs (Observing Systems Experiments) where we are able to test whether observational input data in an assimilation system degrades or improves analyzes and forecasts, are of great value. Furthermore OSEs applied to satellite observations are expected to show large impact due to its large amount of information compared to conventional observations. OSE also provides useful information on the efficiency of the system and this information can be used to improve the use of one or another observation system in the data assimilation process and to determine its relative importance compared to other observation systems. This is a technique where one or more observation systems are retained in the data assimilation process in order to assess the impact of the inclusion or exclusion of a particular observation on the quality of numerical weather prediction (NWP). One of the difficulties within the NWP nevertheless, is to predict the correct intensity of severe weather systems, which has great impact on the population. Over South America, an important weather system is the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ), which every year during summer yelds large amounts of rainfall over a band oriented northwest-southeast, extending from the Amazon to the Brazilian

  11. Generic models for use in assessing the impact of discharges of radioactive substances to the environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    The concern of society in general for the quality of the environment and the realization that all human activities have some environmental effect has led to the development of a procedure for environmental impact analysis. This procedure is a predictive one, which forecasts probable environmental effects before some action, such as the construction and operation of a nuclear power station, is decided upon. The method of prediction is by the application of models that describe the environmental processes in mathematical terms in order to produce a quantitative result which can be used in the decision making process. This report describes such a procedure for application to radioactive discharges and is addressed to the national regulatory bodies and technical and administrative personnel responsible for performing environmental impact analyses. The report is also intended to support the recently published IAEA Safety Guide on Regulatory Control of Radioactive Discharges to the Environment. It expands on and supersedes previous advice published in IAEA Safety Series No. 57 on Generic Models and Parameters for Assessing the Environmental Transfer of Radionuclides from Routine Releases. This Safety Report was developed through a series of consultants meetings and three Advisory Group Meetings

  12. Satellite based Ocean Forecasting, the SOFT project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stemmann, L.; Tintoré, J.; Moneris, S.

    2003-04-01

    The knowledge of future oceanic conditions would have enormous impact on human marine related areas. For such reasons, a number of international efforts are being carried out to obtain reliable and manageable ocean forecasting systems. Among the possible techniques that can be used to estimate the near future states of the ocean, an ocean forecasting system based on satellite imagery is developped through the Satelitte based Ocean ForecasTing project (SOFT). SOFT, established by the European Commission, considers the development of a forecasting system of the ocean space-time variability based on satellite data by using Artificial Intelligence techniques. This system will be merged with numerical simulation approaches, via assimilation techniques, to get a hybrid SOFT-numerical forecasting system of improved performance. The results of the project will provide efficient forecasting of sea-surface temperature structures, currents, dynamic height, and biological activity associated to chlorophyll fields. All these quantities could give valuable information on the planning and management of human activities in marine environments such as navigation, fisheries, pollution control, or coastal management. A detailed identification of present or new needs and potential end-users concerned by such an operational tool is being performed. The project would study solutions adapted to these specific needs.

  13. Vulnerability assessment of atmospheric environment driven by human impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yang; Shen, Jing; Ding, Feng; Li, Yu; He, Li

    2016-11-15

    Atmospheric environment quality worsening is a substantial threat to public health worldwide, and in many places, air pollution due to the intensification of the human activity is increasing dramatically. However, no studies have been investigated the integration of vulnerability assessment and atmospheric environment driven by human impacts. The objective of this study was to identify and prioritize the undesirable environmental changes as an early warning system for environment managers and decision makers in term of human, atmospheric environment, and social economic elements. We conduct a vulnerability assessment method of atmospheric environment associated with human impact, this method integrates spatial context of Geographic Information System (GIS) tool, multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) method, ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operators under the Exposure-Sensitivity- Adaptive Capacity (ESA) framework. Decision makers can find out relevant vulnerability assessment results with different vulnerable attitudes. In the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region, China, we further applied this developed method and proved it to be reliable and consistent with the China Environmental Status Bulletin. Results indicate that the vulnerability of atmospheric environment in the BTH region is not optimistic, and environment managers should do more about air pollution. Thus, the most appropriate strategic decision and development program of city or state can be picked out assisting by the vulnerable results. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Impact assessment of land use planning driving forces on environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Longgao, E-mail: chenlonggao@163.com [Institute of Land Resources, Jiangsu Normal University (JSNU), Xuzhou 221116 (China); Yang, Xiaoyan [Institute of Land Resources, Jiangsu Normal University (JSNU), Xuzhou 221116 (China); School of Environment and Spatial Informatics, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou 221116 (China); Chen, Longqian [School of Environment and Spatial Informatics, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou 221116 (China); Li, Long [Department of Geography, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels 1050 (Belgium)

    2015-11-15

    Land use change may exert a negative impact on environmental quality. A state–impact–state (SIS) model describing a state transform under certain impacts has been integrated into land use planning (LUP) environmental impact assessment (LUPEA). This logical model is intuitive and easy to understand, but the exploration of impact is essential to establish the indicator system and to identify the scope of land use environmental impact when it is applied to a specific region. In this study, we investigated environmental driving forces from land use planning (LUPF), along with the conception, components, scope, and impact of LUPF. This method was illustrated by a case study in Zoucheng, China. Through the results, we concluded that (1) the LUPF on environment are impacts originated from the implementation of LUP on a regional environment, which are characterized by four aspects: magnitude, direction, action point, and its owner; (2) various scopes of LUPF on individual environmental elements based on different standards jointly define the final scope of LUPEA; (3) our case study in Zoucheng demonstrates the practicability of this proposed approach; (4) this method can be embedded into LUPEA with direction, magnitudes, and scopes of the LUPF on individual elements obtained, and the identified indicator system can be directly employed into LUPEA and (5) the assessment helps to identify key indicators and to set up a corresponding strategy to mitigate the negative impact of LUP on the environment, which are two important objectives of strategic environmental assessment (SEA) in LUP. - Highlights: • Environmental driving forces from land use planning (LUPF) are investigated and categorized. • Our method can obtains the direction, magnitudes and scopes of environmental driving forces. • The LUPEA scope is determined by the combination of various scopes of LUPF on individual elements. • LUPF assessment can be embedded into LUPEA. • The method can help to

  15. Flood Foresight: A near-real time flood monitoring and forecasting tool for rapid and predictive flood impact assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Revilla-Romero, Beatriz; Shelton, Kay; Wood, Elizabeth; Berry, Robert; Bevington, John; Hankin, Barry; Lewis, Gavin; Gubbin, Andrew; Griffiths, Samuel; Barnard, Paul; Pinnell, Marc; Huyck, Charles

    2017-04-01

    The hours and days immediately after a major flood event are often chaotic and confusing, with first responders rushing to mobilise emergency responders, provide alleviation assistance and assess loss to assets of interest (e.g., population, buildings or utilities). Preparations in advance of a forthcoming event are becoming increasingly important; early warning systems have been demonstrated to be useful tools for decision markers. The extent of damage, human casualties and economic loss estimates can vary greatly during an event, and the timely availability of an accurate flood extent allows emergency response and resources to be optimised, reduces impacts, and helps prioritise recovery. In the insurance sector, for example, insurers are under pressure to respond in a proactive manner to claims rather than waiting for policyholders to report losses. Even though there is a great demand for flood inundation extents and severity information in different sectors, generating flood footprints for large areas from hydraulic models in real time remains a challenge. While such footprints can be produced in real time using remote sensing, weather conditions and sensor availability limit their ability to capture every single flood event across the globe. In this session, we will present Flood Foresight (www.floodforesight.com), an operational tool developed to meet the universal requirement for rapid geographic information, before, during and after major riverine flood events. The tool provides spatial data with which users can measure their current or predicted impact from an event - at building, basin, national or continental scales. Within Flood Foresight, the Screening component uses global rainfall predictions to provide a regional- to continental-scale view of heavy rainfall events up to a week in advance, alerting the user to potentially hazardous situations relevant to them. The Forecasting component enhances the predictive suite of tools by providing a local

  16. Impact Modelling for Circular Economy: Geodesign Discussion Support Environment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Šileryte, R.; Wandl, A.; van Timmeren, A.; Bregt, Arnold; Sarjakoski, Tapani; van Lammeren, Ron; Rip, Frans

    2017-01-01

    Transitioning towards circular economy requires changes in the current system which yield a number of impacts on such fundamental values as human health, natural environment, exhaustible resources, social well-being and prosperity. Moreover, this process involves multiple actors and requires careful

  17. Climate Change Impacts on the Built Environment in Nigeria ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The populations, infrastructure and ecology of cities are at risk from the impacts of climate change which affect urban ventilation and cooling, urban drainage and flood risk and water resources. Built areas exert considerable influence over their local climate and environment, and urban populations are already facing a ...

  18. Review: The impact of changing human environment and climate ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The impact of human-induced climate change through industrialization with the consequent depletion of the ozone layer of the environment is now observed to compromise the sustainability of human development as it threatens the ecological support system on which life depends in addition to encouraging the emergence ...

  19. The Impact of Military Exercises and Operations on Local Environment

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Among the non-conventional security matters, environment has emerged as a new sphere in which the military has been actively involved; as a benevolent and malevolent agent through its exercises and operations. Despite the notable positive contributions, the negative impact of military exercises and operations in the ...

  20. Forecasting Skill

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-01-01

    for the third and fourth day precipitation forecasts. A marked improvement was shown for the consensus 24 hour precipitation forecast, and small... Zuckerberg (1980) found a small long term skill increase in forecasts of heavy snow events for nine eastern cities. Other National Weather Service...and maximum temperature) are each awarded marks 2, 1, or 0 according to whether the forecast is correct, 8 - *- -**■*- ———"—- - -■ t0m 1 MM—IB I

  1. Regional hydrological models for distributed flash-floods forecasting: towards an estimation of potential impacts and damages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Bihan, Guillaume; Payrastre, Olivier; Gaume, Eric; Pons, Frederic; Moncoulon, David

    2016-04-01

    Hydrometeorological forecasting is an essential component of real-time flood management. The information it provides is of great help for crisis managers to anticipate the inundations and the associated risks. In the particular case of flash-floods, which may affect a large amount of small watersheds spread over the territory (up to 300 000 km of waterways considering a drained area of 5 km² minimum in France), appropriate flood forecasting systems are still under development. In France, highly distributed hydrological models have been implemented, enabling a real-time assessment of the potential intensity of flash-floods from the records of weather radars: AIGA-hydro system (Lavabre et al., 2005; Javelle et al., 2014), PreDiFlood project (Naulin et al., 2013). The approach presented here aims to go one step further by offering a direct assessment of the potential impacts of the simulated floods on inhabited areas. This approach is based on an a priori analysis of the study area in order (1) to evaluate with a simplified hydraulic approach (DTM treatment) the potentially flooded areas for different discharge levels, and (2) to identify the associated buildings and/or population at risk from geographic databases. This preliminary analysis enables to build an impact model (discharge-impact curve) on each river reach, which is then used to directly estimate the potentially affected assets based on a distributed rainfall runoff model. The overall principle of this approach was already presented at the 8th Hymex workshop. Therefore, the presentation will be here focused on the first validation results in terms of (1) accuracy of flooded areas simulated from DTM treatments, and (2) relevance of estimated impacts. The inundated areas simulated were compared to the European Directive cartography results (where available), showing an overall good correspondence in a large majority of cases, but also very significant errors for approximatively 10% of the river reaches

  2. Conservation tillage impacts on soil, crop and the environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mutiu Abolanle Busari

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available There is an urgent need to match food production with increasing world population through identification of sustainable land management strategies. However, the struggle to achieve food security should be carried out keeping in mind the soil where the crops are grown and the environment in which the living things survive. Conservation agriculture (CA, practising agriculture in such a way so as to cause minimum damage to the environment, is being advocated at a large scale world-wide. Conservation tillage, the most important aspect of CA, is thought to take care of the soil health, plant growth and the environment. This paper aims to review the work done on conservation tillage in different agro-ecological regions so as to understand its impact from the perspectives of the soil, the crop and the environment. Research reports have identified several benefits of conservation tillage over conventional tillage (CT with respect to soil physical, chemical and biological properties as well as crop yields. Not less than 25% of the greenhouse gas effluxes to the atmosphere are attributed to agriculture. Processes of climate change mitigation and adaptation found zero tillage (ZT to be the most environmental friendly among different tillage techniques. Therefore, conservation tillage involving ZT and minimum tillage which has potential to break the surface compact zone in soil with reduced soil disturbance offers to lead to a better soil environment and crop yield with minimal impact on the environment. Keywords: Atmosphere, Greenhouse gases, Conservation tillage, Sustainable crop yield

  3. Modeling of space environment impact on nanostructured materials. General principles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voronina, Ekaterina; Novikov, Lev

    2016-07-01

    In accordance with the resolution of ISO TC20/SC14 WG4/WG6 joint meeting, Technical Specification (TS) 'Modeling of space environment impact on nanostructured materials. General principles' which describes computer simulation methods of space environment impact on nanostructured materials is being prepared. Nanomaterials surpass traditional materials for space applications in many aspects due to their unique properties associated with nanoscale size of their constituents. This superiority in mechanical, thermal, electrical and optical properties will evidently inspire a wide range of applications in the next generation spacecraft intended for the long-term (~15-20 years) operation in near-Earth orbits and the automatic and manned interplanetary missions. Currently, ISO activity on developing standards concerning different issues of nanomaterials manufacturing and applications is high enough. Most such standards are related to production and characterization of nanostructures, however there is no ISO documents concerning nanomaterials behavior in different environmental conditions, including the space environment. The given TS deals with the peculiarities of the space environment impact on nanostructured materials (i.e. materials with structured objects which size in at least one dimension lies within 1-100 nm). The basic purpose of the document is the general description of the methodology of applying computer simulation methods which relate to different space and time scale to modeling processes occurring in nanostructured materials under the space environment impact. This document will emphasize the necessity of applying multiscale simulation approach and present the recommendations for the choice of the most appropriate methods (or a group of methods) for computer modeling of various processes that can occur in nanostructured materials under the influence of different space environment components. In addition, TS includes the description of possible

  4. Assessing the Impact of Surface and Upper-Air Observations on the Forecast Skill of the ACCESS Numerical Weather Prediction Model over Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergei Soldatenko

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The impact of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s in situ observations (land and sea surface observations, upper air observations by radiosondes, pilot balloons, wind profilers, and aircraft observations on the short-term forecast skill provided by the ACCESS (Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator global numerical weather prediction (NWP system is evaluated using an adjoint-based method. This technique makes use of the adjoint perturbation forecast model utilized within the 4D-Var assimilation system, and is able to calculate the individual impact of each assimilated observation in a cycling NWP system. The results obtained show that synoptic observations account for about 60% of the 24-h forecast error reduction, with the remainder accounted for by aircraft (12.8%, radiosondes (10.5%, wind profilers (3.9%, pilot balloons (2.8%, buoys (1.7% and ships (1.2%. In contrast, the largest impact per observation is from buoys and aircraft. Overall, all observation types have a positive impact on the 24-h forecast skill. Such results help to support the decision-making process regarding the evolution of the observing network, particularly at the national level. Consequently, this 4D-Var-based approach has great potential as a tool to assist the design and running of an efficient and effective observing network.

  5. Evaluation of Enhanced High Resolution MODIS/AMSR-E SSTs and the Impact on Regional Weather Forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schiferl, Luke D.; Fuell, Kevin K.; Case, Jonathan L.; Jedlovec, Gary J.

    2010-01-01

    , the discernable impacts on the WRF model were still somewhat limited. This paper explores several factors that may have contributed to this result. First, the original methodology to initialize the model used the most recent SST composite available in a hypothetical real ]time configuration, often matching the forecast initial time with an SST field that was 5-8 hours offset. To minimize the differences that result from the diurnal variations in SST, the previous day fs SST composite is incorporated at a time closest to the model initialization hour (e.g. 1600 UTC composite at 1500 UTC model initialization). Second, the diurnal change seen in the MODIS SST composites was not represented by the WRF model in previous simulations, since the SSTs were held constant throughout the model integration. To address this issue, we explore the use of a water skin-temperature diurnal cycle prediction capability within v3.1 of the WRF model to better represent fluctuations in marine surface forcing. Finally, the verification of the WRF model is limited to very few over-water sites, many of which are located near the coastlines. In order to measure the open ocean improvements from the AMSR-E, we could use an independent 2-dimensional, satellite-derived data set to validate the forecast model by applying an object-based verification method. Such a validation technique could aid in better understanding the benefits of the mesoscale SST spatial structure to regional models applications.

  6. Health Impacts from Human Interaction with the Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasan, S. E.

    2008-12-01

    Humans have produced far greater impact on the environment than any other living form. The impact has been so significant-particularly during the past 50 years-that a new word, Anthrposphere has started appearing in recent literature. It is now being used along with the four major components of the system earth to underscore humans' influence on the environment. Human activities have produced a myriad of impacts on the environment that span the scale from local to global. The slow process that brought humanity to the present environmental crisis began with the Industrial Revolution and has greatly accelerated since the World War II. The past 50 years mark a unique period in human history that is characterized by rapid technological advances and unprecedented population growth. While the use of technology has been very effective in meeting the needs of the growing population, it has also produced serious impact on the environment. Large scale exploitation of mineral, fuel, water, forest, and marine resources has led to severe environmental degradation; and the resulting pollution of air, water, and land has caused serious consequences to human and ecological health. The presentation deals with the adverse impact on human health associated with mining, dam and reservoir construction, improper waste management, use of fossil fuels, and climate change. Case studies are included to illustrate health impacts from metal and coal mining; dam and reservoir construction and preponderance of disease vectors; pollution caused by improper waste disposal and the resulting incidence of cancer and other diseases; and emergence of vector-borne diseases at hitherto unknown locations, cardiovascular and respiratory track ailments, and increased morbidity and mortality triggered by elevated temperatures associated with climate change. A brief discussion of possible measures to mitigate the health consequences is also included in the presentation.

  7. Operational hydrological forecasting in Bavaria. Part II: Ensemble forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehret, U.; Vogelbacher, A.; Moritz, K.; Laurent, S.; Meyer, I.; Haag, I.

    2009-04-01

    either an intermediate forecast between the extremes of the ensemble spread or a manually selected forecast based on a meteorologists advice. 2. Downstream catchments with low influence of weather forecast In downstream catchments with strong human impact on discharge (e.g. by reservoir operation) and large influence of upstream gauge observation quality on forecast quality, the 'overall error' may in most cases be larger than the combination of the 'model error' and an ensemble spread. Therefore, the overall forecast uncertainty bounds are calculated differently: a) A hydrological ensemble forecast is calculated using each of the meteorological forecast members as forcing. Here, additionally the corresponding inflow hydrograph from all upstream catchments must be used. b) As for an upstream catchment, the uncertainty range is determined by combination of 'model error' and the ensemble member forecasts c) In addition, the 'overall error' is superimposed on the 'lead forecast'. For reasons of consistency, the lead forecast must be based on the same meteorological forecast in the downstream and all upstream catchments. d) From the resulting two uncertainty ranges (one from the ensemble forecast and 'model error', one from the 'lead forecast' and 'overall error'), the envelope is taken as the most prudent uncertainty range. In sum, the uncertainty associated with each forecast run is calculated and communicated to the public in the form of 10% and 90% percentiles. As in part I of this study, the methodology as well as the useful- or uselessness of the resulting uncertainty ranges will be presented and discussed by typical examples.

  8. The Impact of Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) Cloud-Cleared Radiances on Hurricane Joaquin (2015) and Matthew (2016) Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Pei; Li, Jun; Li, Zhenglong; Lim, Agnes H. N.; Li, Jinlong; Schmit, Timothy J.; Goldberg, Mitchell D.

    2017-12-01

    Hyperspectral infrared (IR) sounders provide high vertical resolution atmospheric sounding information that can improve the forecast skill in numerical weather prediction. Commonly, only clear radiances are assimilated, because IR sounder observations are highly affected by clouds. A cloud-clearing (CC) technique, which removes the cloud effects from an IR cloudy field of view (FOV) and derives the cloud-cleared radiances (CCRs) or clear-sky equivalent radiances, can be an alternative yet effective way to take advantage of the thermodynamic information from cloudy skies in data assimilation. This study develops a Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS)-based CC method for deriving Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) CCRs under partially cloudy conditions. Due to the lack of absorption bands on VIIRS, two important quality control steps are implemented in the CC process. Validation using VIIRS clear radiances indicates that the CC method can effectively obtain the CrIS CCRs for FOVs with partial cloud cover. To compare the impacts from assimilation of CrIS original radiances and CCRs, three experiments are carried out on two storm cases, Hurricane Joaquin (2015) and Hurricane Matthew (2016), using Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation assimilation system and Weather Research and Forecasting-Advanced Research Version models. At the analysis time, more CrIS observations are assimilated when using CrIS CCRs than with CrIS original radiances. Comparing temperature, specific humidity, and U/V winds with radiosondes indicates that the data impacts are growing larger with longer time forecasts (beyond 72 h forecast). Hurricane track forecasts also show improvements from the assimilation of CrIS CCRs due to better weather system forecasts. The impacts of CCRs on intensity are basically neutral with mixed positive and negative results.

  9. Assessing the spatial impact of climate on wheat productivity and the potential value of climate forecasts at a regional level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Enli; Xu, J.; Jiang, Q.; Austin, J.

    2009-03-01

    Quantification of the spatial impact of climate on crop productivity and the potential value of seasonal climate forecasts can effectively assist the strategic planning of crop layout and help to understand to what extent climate risk can be managed through responsive management strategies at a regional level. A simulation study was carried out to assess the climate impact on the performance of a dryland wheat-fallow system and the potential value of seasonal climate forecasts in nitrogen management in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) of Australia. Daily climate data (1889-2002) from 57 stations were used with the agricultural systems simulator (APSIM) to simulate wheat productivity and nitrogen requirement as affected by climate. On a good soil, simulated grain yield ranged from 7 t/ha in the east border regions. Optimal nitrogen rates ranged from 200 kgN/ha/yr. Simulated gross margin was in the range of -20/ha to 700/ha, increasing eastwards. Wheat yield was closely related to rainfall in the growing season and the stored soil moisture at sowing time. The impact of stored soil moisture increased from southwest to northeast. Simulated annual deep drainage ranged from zero in western inland to >200 mm in the east. Nitrogen management, optimised based on ‘perfect’ knowledge of daily weather in the coming season, could add value of 26˜79/ha compared to management optimised based on historical climate, with the maximum occurring in central to western part of MDB. It would also reduce the nitrogen application by 5˜25 kgN/ha in the main cropping areas. Comparison of simulation results with the current land use mapping in MDB revealed that the western boundary of the current cropping zone approximated the isolines of 160 mm of growing season rainfall, 2.5t/ha of wheat grain yield, and 150/ha of gross margin in QLD and NSW. In VIC and SA, the 160-mm isohyets corresponded relatively lower simulated yield due to less stored soil water. Impacts of other factors like soil

  10. Forecasting age-related macular degeneration through the year 2050: the potential impact of new treatments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rein, David B; Wittenborn, John S; Zhang, Xinzhi; Honeycutt, Amanda A; Lesesne, Sarah B; Saaddine, Jinan

    2009-04-01

    To forecast age-related macular degeneration (AMD) and its consequences in the United States through the year 2050 with different treatment scenarios. We simulated cases of early AMD, choroidal neovascularization (CNV), geographic atrophy (GA), and AMD-attributable visual impairment and blindness with 5 universal treatment scenarios: (1) no treatment; (2) focal laser and photodynamic therapy (PDT) for CNV; (3) vitamin prophylaxis at early-AMD incidence with focal laser/PDT for CNV; (4) no vitamin prophylaxis followed by focal laser treatment for extra and juxtafoveal CNV and anti-vascular endothelial growth factor treatment; and (5) vitamin prophylaxis at early-AMD incidence followed by CNV treatment, as in scenario 4. Cases of early AMD increased from 9.1 million in 2010 to 17.8 million in 2050 across all scenarios. In non-vitamin-receiving scenarios, cases of CNV and GA increased from 1.7 million in 2010 to 3.8 million in 2050 (25% lower in vitamin-receiving scenarios). Cases of visual impairment and blindness increased from 620 000 in 2010 to 1.6 million in 2050 when given no treatment and were 2.4%, 22.0%, 16.9%, and 34.5% lower in scenarios 2, 3, 4, and 5, respectively. Prevalence of AMD will increase substantially by 2050, but the use of new therapies can mitigate its effects.

  11. Understanding land use change impacts on microclimate using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xia; Mitra, Chandana; Dong, Li; Yang, Qichun

    2018-02-01

    To explore potential climatic consequences of land cover change in the Kolkata Metropolitan Development area, we projected microclimate conditions in this area using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model driven by future land use scenarios. Specifically, we considered two land conversion scenarios including an urbanization scenario that all the wetlands and croplands would be converted to built-up areas, and an irrigation expansion scenario in which all wetlands and dry croplands would be replaced by irrigated croplands. Results indicated that land use and land cover (LULC) change would dramatically increase regional temperature in this area under the urbanization scenario, but expanded irrigation tended to have a cooling effect. In the urbanization scenario, precipitation center tended to move eastward and lead to increased rainfall in eastern parts of this region. Increased irrigation stimulated rainfall in central and eastern areas but reduced rainfall in southwestern and northwestern parts of the study area. This study also demonstrated that urbanization significantly reduced latent heat fluxes and albedo of land surface; while increased sensible heat flux changes following urbanization suggested that developed land surfaces mainly acted as heat sources. In this study, climate change projection not only predicts future spatiotemporal patterns of multiple climate factors, but also provides valuable insights into policy making related to land use management, water resource management, and agriculture management to adapt and mitigate future climate changes in this populous region.

  12. Updating known distribution models for forecasting climate change impact on endangered species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muñoz, Antonio-Román; Márquez, Ana Luz; Real, Raimundo

    2013-01-01

    To plan endangered species conservation and to design adequate management programmes, it is necessary to predict their distributional response to climate change, especially under the current situation of rapid change. However, these predictions are customarily done by relating de novo the distribution of the species with climatic conditions with no regard of previously available knowledge about the factors affecting the species distribution. We propose to take advantage of known species distribution models, but proceeding to update them with the variables yielded by climatic models before projecting them to the future. To exemplify our proposal, the availability of suitable habitat across Spain for the endangered Bonelli's Eagle (Aquila fasciata) was modelled by updating a pre-existing model based on current climate and topography to a combination of different general circulation models and Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Our results suggested that the main threat for this endangered species would not be climate change, since all forecasting models show that its distribution will be maintained and increased in mainland Spain for all the XXI century. We remark on the importance of linking conservation biology with distribution modelling by updating existing models, frequently available for endangered species, considering all the known factors conditioning the species' distribution, instead of building new models that are based on climate change variables only.

  13. Impact of meteorological data resolution on the forecasted ozone concentrations during the ESCOMPTE IOP2a and IOP2b

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menut, Laurent; Coll, Isabelle; Cautenet, Sylvie

    2005-03-01

    During the summer 2001, several photo-oxidant pollution episodes were documented around Marseilles-Fos-Berre in the South of France within the framework of the ESCOMPTE campaign. The site is composed of large cities (Marseilles, Aix, and Toulon), significant factories (Fos-Berre), a dense road network, and extensive rural area. Both biogenic and anthropogenic emissions are thus significative. Located close to the Mediterranean Sea and framed by the Pyrenees and the Alps Mountains, pollutant concentrations are under the influence of strong emissions as well as a complex meteorology. During the whole summer 2001, the chemistry-transport model CHIMERE was used to forecast pollutant concentrations. The ECMWF forecast meteorological fields were used as forcing, with a raw spatial and temporal resolution of 0.5° and 3 h, respectively. It was observed that even if the synoptic dynamic processes were correctly described, the resolution was not always able to detail small-scale dynamics (sea breezes and orographical winds). To estimate the impact of meteorological forcing on the modeled concentration accuracy, an intercomparison exercise has thus been carried out on the same episode but with two sets of meteorological data: ECMWF data (with horizontal and temporal resolution of 0.5° and 3 h) and data from the mesoscale model RAMS (3 km and 1 h). The two sets of meteorological data are compared and discussed in terms of raw differences as a function of time and location, and in terms of induced discrepancies between the modeled and observed ozone concentration fields. It was shown that even if the RAMS model provides a better description of land-sea breezes and nocturnal boundary layer processes, the simulated ozone time series are satisfactory with the two meteorological forcings. In the context of ozone forecast, the scores are better with ECMWF. This is attributed to the diffusive aspect of these data that will more easily catch localized peaks, while a small error in

  14. Environment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Valentini, Chiara

    2017-01-01

    The term environment refers to the internal and external context in which organizations operate. For some scholars, environment is defined as an arrangement of political, economic, social and cultural factors existing in a given context that have an impact on organizational processes and structures....... For others, environment is a generic term describing a large variety of stakeholders and how these interact and act upon organizations. Organizations and their environment are mutually interdependent and organizational communications are highly affected by the environment. This entry examines the origin...... and development of organization-environment interdependence, the nature of the concept of environment and its relevance for communication scholarships and activities....

  15. Forecast of environmental impact in the evaluation of Cerro Solo nuclear mine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gallucci, A.R.

    1993-01-01

    This work presents a project for the study of the environmental impact of the Cerro Solo uranium mine. The survey is to be carried out performing different kinds of studies: mineralization, tectonics, hydrogeology, preliminary studies on different exploitation methods, costs, reserves estimation, economical studies and preliminary studies on possible environmental impacts. (author). 24 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab

  16. Forecasting energy consumption of multi-family residential buildings using support vector regression: Investigating the impact of temporal and spatial monitoring granularity on performance accuracy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jain, Rishee K.; Smith, Kevin M.; Culligan, Patricia J.; Taylor, John E.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • We develop a building energy forecasting model using support vector regression. • Model is applied to data from a multi-family residential building in New York City. • We extend sensor based energy forecasting to multi-family residential buildings. • We examine the impact temporal and spatial granularity has on model accuracy. • Optimal granularity occurs at the by floor in hourly temporal intervals. - Abstract: Buildings are the dominant source of energy consumption and environmental emissions in urban areas. Therefore, the ability to forecast and characterize building energy consumption is vital to implementing urban energy management and efficiency initiatives required to curb emissions. Advances in smart metering technology have enabled researchers to develop “sensor based” approaches to forecast building energy consumption that necessitate less input data than traditional methods. Sensor-based forecasting utilizes machine learning techniques to infer the complex relationships between consumption and influencing variables (e.g., weather, time of day, previous consumption). While sensor-based forecasting has been studied extensively for commercial buildings, there is a paucity of research applying this data-driven approach to the multi-family residential sector. In this paper, we build a sensor-based forecasting model using Support Vector Regression (SVR), a commonly used machine learning technique, and apply it to an empirical data-set from a multi-family residential building in New York City. We expand our study to examine the impact of temporal (i.e., daily, hourly, 10 min intervals) and spatial (i.e., whole building, by floor, by unit) granularity have on the predictive power of our single-step model. Results indicate that sensor based forecasting models can be extended to multi-family residential buildings and that the optimal monitoring granularity occurs at the by floor level in hourly intervals. In addition to implications for

  17. Moisture Buffer Effect and its Impact on Indoor Environment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, Mingjie; Qin, Menghao; Chen, Zhi

    2017-01-01

    The moisture buffer effect of building materials may have great influence on indoor hygrothermal environment. In order to characterize the moisture buffering ability of materials, the basic concept of moisture buffer value (MBV) is adopted. Firstly, a theoretical correction factor is introduced...... in this paper. The moisture uptake/release by hygroscopic materials can be calculated with the factor and the basic MBV. Furthermore, the validation of the correction factor is carried out. The impact of moisture buffering on indoor environment is assessed by using numerical simulations. The results show...

  18. Methodology for assessing the radiological impact on environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Yongxing

    1988-01-01

    During the 1940s, the early stages of nuclear programmes, the assessment of the radionuclides released to the environment was first initiated for the large nuclear facilities, with emphasis placed on environmental monitoring. The radiological assessment is a quantitative process of estimating the impact on human, resulting from the releases of the radionuclides to the environment. It is a multidisciplinary subject including identification of source terms, environmental transport and dispersion, health effect evaluation and so on. This paper briefly, but comprehensively, describes the methodology for the assessment of the environmental radiological consequence, and discusses the trend of various research fields related to the subject

  19. A new Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer channel selection and assessment of its impact on Met Office NWP forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noh, Young-Chan; Sohn, Byung-Ju; Kim, Yoonjae; Joo, Sangwon; Bell, William; Saunders, Roger

    2017-11-01

    A new set of Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) channels was re-selected from 314 EUMETSAT channels. In selecting channels, we calculated the impact of the individually added channel on the improvement in the analysis outputs from a one-dimensional variational analysis (1D-Var) for the Unified Model (UM) data assimilation system at the Met Office, using the channel score index (CSI) as a figure of merit. Then, 200 channels were selected in order by counting each individual channel's CSI contribution. Compared with the operationally used 183 channels for the UM at the Met Office, the new set shares 149 channels, while the other 51 channels are new. Also examined is the selection from the entropy reduction method with the same 1D-Var approach. Results suggest that channel selection can be made in a more objective fashion using the proposed CSI method. This is because the most important channels can be selected across the whole IASI observation spectrum. In the experimental trial runs using the UM global assimilation system, the new channels had an overall neutral impact in terms of improvement in forecasts, as compared with results from the operational channels. However, upper-tropospheric moist biases shown in the control run with operational channels were significantly reduced in the experimental trial with the newly selected channels. The reduction of moist biases was mainly due to the additional water vapor channels, which are sensitive to the upper-tropospheric water vapor.

  20. A Time-Varying Potential-Based Demand Response Method for Mitigating the Impacts of Wind Power Forecasting Errors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jia Ning

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The uncertainty of wind power results in wind power forecasting errors (WPFE which lead to difficulties in formulating dispatching strategies to maintain the power balance. Demand response (DR is a promising tool to balance power by alleviating the impact of WPFE. This paper offers a control method of combining DR and automatic generation control (AGC units to smooth the system’s imbalance, considering the real-time DR potential (DRP and security constraints. A schematic diagram is proposed from the perspective of a dispatching center that manages smart appliances including air conditioner (AC, water heater (WH, electric vehicle (EV loads, and AGC units to maximize the wind accommodation. The presented model schedules the AC, WH, and EV loads without compromising the consumers’ comfort preferences. Meanwhile, the ramp constraint of generators and power flow transmission constraint are considered to guarantee the safety and stability of the power system. To demonstrate the performance of the proposed approach, simulations are performed in an IEEE 24-node system. The results indicate that considerable benefits can be realized by coordinating the DR and AGC units to mitigate the WPFE impacts.

  1. Forecasting the future of biodiversity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fitzpatrick, M. C.; Sanders, Nate; Ferrier, Simon

    2011-01-01

    , but their application to forecasting climate change impacts on biodiversity has been limited. Here we compare forecasts of changes in patterns of ant biodiversity in North America derived from ensembles of single-species models to those from a multi-species modeling approach, Generalized Dissimilarity Modeling (GDM...... climate change impacts on biodiversity....

  2. Gender and Leadership Aspiration: The Impact of the Organizational Environment

    OpenAIRE

    Fritz, Claudia

    2016-01-01

    markdownabstractSummary The aim of this dissertation is to examine gender differences in leadership aspiration. Although some important work regarding gender-specific aspiration has been done already, conditions fostering leadership aspiration – particularly among women – are not completely understood. Therefore, the focus of this dissertation is on assessing the potential impact of the organizational environment, including formal and informal elements, as well as relevant actors and their re...

  3. Preparing for climate change impacts in Norway's built environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robert Lisoe, K.; Aandahl, G.; Eriksen, S.; Alfsen, K.

    2003-01-01

    This paper provides an overview of the Norwegian climate policy and of the practical implications of preparing Norway for climate change, with special emphasis on the challenges confronting the built environment. Although the Norwegian government has been relatively proactive in instituting measures aimed at halting global climate change, less attention has been paid to the challenge of adapting to climate change. The global climate system is likely to undergo changes, regardless of the implementation of abatement policies under the Kyoto Protocol or other regimes. The full range of impacts resulting from these changes is still uncertain; however, it is becoming increasingly clear that adaptation to climate change is necessary and inevitable within several sectors. The potential impacts of climate change in the built environment are now being addressed. Both the functionality of the existing built environment and the design of future buildings are likely to be altered by climate change impacts, and the expected implications of these new conditions are now investigated. However, measures aimed at adjustments within individual sectors, such as altering the criteria and codes of practice for the design and construction of buildings, constitute only a partial adaptation to climate change. In order to adapt effectively, larger societal and intersectoral adjustments are necessary. (author)

  4. Impact experimentation and the microgravity environment: an overview

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grieve, R.A.F.

    1986-01-01

    Impact is an ubiquitous physical process in the solar system. It occurs on all solid bodies and operates over a spectrum of scales, influencing geologic processes ranging from accretion, the early evolution of planetary bodies, the petrogenetic and spatial relations of lunar samples, the surface characteristics and interpretation of spectral data of asteroidal bodies, to the nature of some meteorites. Understanding impact phenomena is therefore paramount in constraining and underpinning a large number of research efforts into fundamental planetary geology. Gravity is an important parameter in impact processes. The physical environment offered by the Space Station represents an unique opportunity to extend the experimental aspect of impact studies into the microgravity (less than 1 g) regime. Through the use of free floating targets, it may be possible to explore in detail phenomena associated with the collision of bodies. Such experiments can address questions regarding early and late accretional processes, catastrophic disruption and asteroidal evolution, as well as the effects of large impacts on the momentum and spin of the target bodies. The last question is of considerable topical interest with respect to the hypothesized origin of the moon by a Mars-sized impact on Earth

  5. The Impact of Weather Forecasts of Various Lead Times on Snowmaking Decisions Made for the 2010 Vancouver Olympic Winter Games

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doyle, Chris

    2014-01-01

    The Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympics were held from 12 to 28 February 2010, and the Paralympic events followed 2 weeks later. During the Games, the weather posed a grave threat to the viability of one venue and created significant complications for the event schedule at others. Forecasts of weather with lead times ranging from minutes to days helped organizers minimize disruptions to sporting events and helped ensure all medal events were successfully completed. Of comparable importance, however, were the scenarios and forecasts of probable weather for the winter in advance of the Games. Forecasts of mild conditions at the time of the Games helped the Games' organizers mitigate what would have been very serious potential consequences for at least one venue. Snowmaking was one strategy employed well in advance of the Games to prepare for the expected conditions. This short study will focus on how operational decisions were made by the Games' organizers on the basis of both climatological and snowmaking forecasts during the pre-Games winter. An attempt will be made to quantify, economically, the value of some of the snowmaking forecasts made for the Games' operators. The results obtained indicate that although the economic value of the snowmaking forecast was difficult to determine, the Games' organizers valued the forecast information greatly. This suggests that further development of probabilistic forecasts for applications like pre-Games snowmaking would be worthwhile.

  6. The impact of different sea-surface temperature prediction scenarios on Southern African seasonal climate forecast skill

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Landman, WA

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Retro-active forecasts produced at a 1-month lead-time by the ECHAM4.5 AGCM are statistically downscaled to South African district rainfall totals for the austral mid-summer season of December to February. The AGCM is forced with SST forecasts...

  7. Load forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mak, H.

    1995-01-01

    Slides used in a presentation at The Power of Change Conference in Vancouver, BC in April 1995 about the changing needs for load forecasting were presented. Technological innovations and population increase were said to be the prime driving forces behind the changing needs in load forecasting. Structural changes, market place changes, electricity supply planning changes, and changes in planning objectives were other factors discussed. It was concluded that load forecasting was a form of information gathering, that provided important market intelligence

  8. Minimal climate change impacts on natural organic matter forecasted for a potable water supply in Ireland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Driscoll, Connie; Ledesma, José L J; Coll, John; Murnane, John G; Nolan, Paul; Mockler, Eva M; Futter, Martyn N; Xiao, Liwen W

    2018-07-15

    Natural organic matter poses an increasing challenge to water managers because of its potential adverse impacts on water treatment and distribution, and subsequently human health. Projections were made of impacts of climate change on dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in the primarily agricultural Boyne catchment which is used as a potable water supply in Ireland. The results indicated that excluding a potential rise in extreme precipitation, future projected loads are not dissimilar to those observed under current conditions. This is because projected increases in DOC concentrations are offset by corresponding decreases in precipitation and hence river flow. However, the results presented assume no changes in land use and highlight the predicted increase in DOC loads from abstracted waters at water treatment plants. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  9. Modeling and Forecasting the Impact of Major Technological and Infrastructural Changes on Travel Demand

    OpenAIRE

    El Zarwi, Feras

    2017-01-01

    The transportation system is undergoing major technological and infrastructural changes, such as the introduction of autonomous vehicles, high speed rail, carsharing, ridesharing, flying cars, drones, and other app-driven on-demand services. While the changes are imminent, the impact on travel behavior is uncertain, as is the role of policy in shaping the future. Literature shows that even under the most optimistic scenarios, society’s environmental goals cannot be met by technology, operatio...

  10. Monitoring the impacts of trade agreements on food environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friel, S; Hattersley, L; Snowdon, W; Thow, A-M; Lobstein, T; Sanders, D; Barquera, S; Mohan, S; Hawkes, C; Kelly, B; Kumanyika, S; L'Abbe, M; Lee, A; Ma, J; Macmullan, J; Monteiro, C; Neal, B; Rayner, M; Sacks, G; Swinburn, B; Vandevijvere, S; Walker, C

    2013-10-01

    The liberalization of international trade and foreign direct investment through multilateral, regional and bilateral agreements has had profound implications for the structure and nature of food systems, and therefore, for the availability, nutritional quality, accessibility, price and promotion of foods in different locations. Public health attention has only relatively recently turned to the links between trade and investment agreements, diets and health, and there is currently no systematic monitoring of this area. This paper reviews the available evidence on the links between trade agreements, food environments and diets from an obesity and non-communicable disease (NCD) perspective. Based on the key issues identified through the review, the paper outlines an approach for monitoring the potential impact of trade agreements on food environments and obesity/NCD risks. The proposed monitoring approach encompasses a set of guiding principles, recommended procedures for data collection and analysis, and quantifiable 'minimal', 'expanded' and 'optimal' measurement indicators to be tailored to national priorities, capacity and resources. Formal risk assessment processes of existing and evolving trade and investment agreements, which focus on their impacts on food environments will help inform the development of healthy trade policy, strengthen domestic nutrition and health policy space and ultimately protect population nutrition. © 2013 The Authors. Obesity Reviews published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the International Association for the Study of Obesity.

  11. The challenge of forecasting impacts of flash floods: test of a simplified hydraulic approach and validation based on insurance claim data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Bihan, Guillaume; Payrastre, Olivier; Gaume, Eric; Moncoulon, David; Pons, Frédéric

    2017-11-01

    Up to now, flash flood monitoring and forecasting systems, based on rainfall radar measurements and distributed rainfall-runoff models, generally aimed at estimating flood magnitudes - typically discharges or return periods - at selected river cross sections. The approach presented here goes one step further by proposing an integrated forecasting chain for the direct assessment of flash flood possible impacts on inhabited areas (number of buildings at risk in the presented case studies). The proposed approach includes, in addition to a distributed rainfall-runoff model, an automatic hydraulic method suited for the computation of flood extent maps on a dense river network and over large territories. The resulting catalogue of flood extent maps is then combined with land use data to build a flood impact curve for each considered river reach, i.e. the number of inundated buildings versus discharge. These curves are finally used to compute estimated impacts based on forecasted discharges. The approach has been extensively tested in the regions of Alès and Draguignan, located in the south of France, where well-documented major flash floods recently occurred. The article presents two types of validation results. First, the automatically computed flood extent maps and corresponding water levels are tested against rating curves at available river gauging stations as well as against local reference or observed flood extent maps. Second, a rich and comprehensive insurance claim database is used to evaluate the relevance of the estimated impacts for some recent major floods.

  12. The challenge of forecasting impacts of flash floods: test of a simplified hydraulic approach and validation based on insurance claim data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Le Bihan

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Up to now, flash flood monitoring and forecasting systems, based on rainfall radar measurements and distributed rainfall–runoff models, generally aimed at estimating flood magnitudes – typically discharges or return periods – at selected river cross sections. The approach presented here goes one step further by proposing an integrated forecasting chain for the direct assessment of flash flood possible impacts on inhabited areas (number of buildings at risk in the presented case studies. The proposed approach includes, in addition to a distributed rainfall–runoff model, an automatic hydraulic method suited for the computation of flood extent maps on a dense river network and over large territories. The resulting catalogue of flood extent maps is then combined with land use data to build a flood impact curve for each considered river reach, i.e. the number of inundated buildings versus discharge. These curves are finally used to compute estimated impacts based on forecasted discharges. The approach has been extensively tested in the regions of Alès and Draguignan, located in the south of France, where well-documented major flash floods recently occurred. The article presents two types of validation results. First, the automatically computed flood extent maps and corresponding water levels are tested against rating curves at available river gauging stations as well as against local reference or observed flood extent maps. Second, a rich and comprehensive insurance claim database is used to evaluate the relevance of the estimated impacts for some recent major floods.

  13. Forecast of electricity consumption in Cyprus up to the year 2030. The potential impact of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zachariadis, Theodoros

    2010-01-01

    This paper provides a forecast of electricity consumption in Cyprus up to the year 2030, based on econometric analysis of energy use as a function of macroeconomic variables, prices and weather conditions. If past trends continue electricity use is expected to triple in the coming 20-25 years, with the residential and commercial sectors increasing their already high shares in total consumption. Besides this reference scenario it was attempted to assess the impact of climate change on electricity use. According to official projections, the average temperature in the Eastern Mediterranean is expected to rise by about 1 C by the year 2030. Using our econometrically estimated model, we calculated that electricity consumption in Cyprus may be about 2.9% higher in 2030 than in the reference scenario. This might lead to a welfare loss of 15 million Euros in 2020 and 45 million Euros in 2030; for the entire period 2008-2030 the present value of costs may exceed 200 million Euros (all expressed in constant Euros of 2007). Moreover, we assessed the additional peak electricity load requirements in the future because of climate change: extra load may amount to 65-75 Megawatts (MW) in the year 2020 and 85-95 MW in 2030. (author)

  14. Radiological impact of the PARR-1 operation on the environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bakhtyar, S.; Raza, S.S.; Tayyab, M.; Pervez, S.; Salahuddin, A.

    2005-01-01

    This paper presents a study related to the assessment of the radiological impact on the environment due to the operation of the Pakistan research reactor-1 (PARR-1) at the Pakistan Institute of Nuclear Sciences and Technology (PINSTECH), Islamabad. The parameters studied include the radioactivity releases in a gaseous form and also those originating from the liquid and solid wastes produced due to the operation of this research facility. The analysis is based on the environmental monitoring data for the last 10 years (1992-2002) and the conclusions have been drawn for the impact of the PARR-1 operation on the occupational workers as well as the general public living in the vicinity of the reactor site. Further, on the basis of this data, yearly average doses and the cumulative doses for the expected life of PARR-1, due to different radiation sources have been estimated. The analysis indicated that the maximum yearly doses at ground level for the occupational workers as well as for the public are a fraction of the International Atomic Energy Agency's (IAEA) defined limiting values. It is, therefore, concluded that the impact of the PARR-1 normal operation on the environment is negligible and it can be regarded as ''safe to the public as well as the occupational workers''. (orig.)

  15. Using Science Data and Models for Space Weather Forecasting - Challenges and Opportunities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hesse, Michael; Pulkkinen, Antti; Zheng, Yihua; Maddox, Marlo; Berrios, David; Taktakishvili, Sandro; Kuznetsova, Masha; Chulaki, Anna; Lee, Hyesook; Mullinix, Rick; hide

    2012-01-01

    Space research, and, consequently, space weather forecasting are immature disciplines. Scientific knowledge is accumulated frequently, which changes our understanding or how solar eruptions occur, and of how they impact targets near or on the Earth, or targets throughout the heliosphere. Along with continuous progress in understanding, space research and forecasting models are advancing rapidly in capability, often providing substantially increases in space weather value over time scales of less than a year. Furthermore, the majority of space environment information available today is, particularly in the solar and heliospheric domains, derived from research missions. An optimal forecasting environment needs to be flexible enough to benefit from this rapid development, and flexible enough to adapt to evolving data sources, many of which may also stem from non-US entities. This presentation will analyze the experiences obtained by developing and operating both a forecasting service for NASA, and an experimental forecasting system for Geomagnetically Induced Currents.

  16. The Impact of Ocean Data Assimilation on Seasonal-to-Interannual Forecasts: A Case Study of the 2006 El Nino Event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Shu-Chih; Rienecker, Michele; Keppenne, Christian

    2010-01-01

    This study investigates the impact of four different ocean analyses on coupled forecasts of the 2006 El Nino event. Forecasts initialized in June 2006 using ocean analyses from an assimilation that uses flow-dependent background error covariances are compared with those using static error covariances that are not flow dependent. The flow-dependent error covariances reflect the error structures related to the background ENSO instability and are generated by the coupled breeding method. The ocean analyses used in this study result from the assimilation of temperature and salinity, with the salinity data available from Argo floats. Of the analyses, the one using information from the coupled bred vectors (BV) replicates the observed equatorial long wave propagation best and exhibits more warming features leading to the 2006 El Nino event. The forecasts initialized from the BV-based analysis agree best with the observations in terms of the growth of the warm anomaly through two warming phases. This better performance is related to the impact of the salinity analysis on the state evolution in the equatorial thermocline. The early warming is traced back to salinity differences in the upper ocean of the equatorial central Pacific, while the second warming, corresponding to the mature phase, is associated with the effect of the salinity assimilation on the depth of the thermocline in the western equatorial Pacific. The series of forecast experiments conducted here show that the structure of the salinity in the initial conditions is important to the forecasts of the extension of the warm pool and the evolution of the 2006 El Ni o event.

  17. Inclusion of biomass burning in WRF-Chem: impact of wildfires on weather forecasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Grell

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available A plume rise algorithm for wildfires was included in WRF-Chem, and applied to look at the impact of intense wildfires during the 2004 Alaska wildfire season on weather simulations using model resolutions of 10 km and 2 km. Biomass burning emissions were estimated using a biomass burning emissions model. In addition, a 1-D, time-dependent cloud model was used online in WRF-Chem to estimate injection heights as well as the vertical distribution of the emission rates. It was shown that with the inclusion of the intense wildfires of the 2004 fire season in the model simulations, the interaction of the aerosols with the atmospheric radiation led to significant modifications of vertical profiles of temperature and moisture in cloud-free areas. On the other hand, when clouds were present, the high concentrations of fine aerosol (PM2.5 and the resulting large numbers of Cloud Condensation Nuclei (CCN had a strong impact on clouds and cloud microphysics, with decreased precipitation coverage and precipitation amounts during the first 12 h of the integration. During the afternoon, storms were of convective nature and appeared significantly stronger, probably as a result of both the interaction of aerosols with radiation (through an increase in CAPE as well as the interaction with cloud microphysics.

  18. The Impact of Urban Solid Waste Management on Urban Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    خالد عبد الوهاب

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The growing population and the rising standard of living in cities as well as the increased commercial, industrial and agricultural activities around the world led to massive production of waste containing different materials and one of them is the municipal solid waste (MSW, so there is a major problem facing the cities around the world about the waste, how to collect, transfer it and how to discard it. Because the accumulation of wastes, whether in the city alleys or in its squares and especially in its residential areas affect the health of their populations besides this situation will be a major indication of the deteriorating quality of life in the city, as hygiene considered a fundamental criterion for the city beauty as well as an indication of the protection provided by the city to their environment and the level of protection provided to the health of city residence. The accumulated waste which is left in the city without treatment significantly affects the psychological behavior of the residence of these areas towards their community and environment and therefore their behavior towards their regions and their cities. From here emerged the general research problem concerning the modern civilization and its lifestyle that produced great amounts of (municipal solid waste, which became a big problem facing the modern cities concerning their collection, transportation and finally their disposal, how can these great amounts of waste be used whether by recycling, energy recovery or transferring to plant fertilizers ... etc. To serve the sustainable growth of these modern cities, this lead to the specific research problem concerning the lack of clarity concerning the impact of waste collection, transporting and treating and city urban environment and its townscape. Research Hypothesis: The process of collecting, transporting and. treating city solid waste or using it has a great impact on city urban environment and its townscape.

  19. The impacts of radionuclide releases into the marine environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1981-01-01

    The impact of radiation on the marine environment has been of interest to the international community since the advent of nuclear fission. This interest continues with the increasing industrial use of nuclear power and the associated need for the disposal of nuclear waste. Continued dumping of low-level waste into the sea and direct discharge of liquid effluents into coastal waters, as well as potential radionuclide additions to the deep ocean from other sources, dictates that the possible long-term effects on the seas must be closely watched. By means of field studies in contaminated environments, our knowledge of long-lived radionuclides, especially the transuranium elements, is increasing. We are far from the goal, however, of being able to predict the behaviour of these elements in the marine environment, particularly in the deep sea. We know even less about other long-lived radionuclides such as technetium, whose inventory may be as high as 170 000 kg by the year 2000 according to some projections. Clearly, attempts to unravel the behaviour and fate of these long-lived radionuclides introduced into the sea will present a challenge to the environmental scientist during the next decade. In addition, the new philosophy of the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) as set out in Publication No.26, emphasizes justification and optimization both in the release of radioactive effluents into the sea and in the sea-dumping of radioactive solid wastes. To satisfy the demands of this new philosophy requires a broader range of environmental information than has previously been available. The papers assembled for this symposium represent an authoritative account of the subject's global status in 1980. The object of the meeting was to review the origins, measurements, behaviour, fate and impacts of artificial radioactive additions to the marine environment

  20. Fogs: Physical Basis, Characteristic Properties, and Impacts on the Environment and Human Health

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José L. Pérez-Díaz

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available This work presents a selective overview of natural fogs in terms of fog types, forms and states of occurrence, physical, micro-physical, chemical and dynamic properties, basic characterizing parameters, etc. In focus are related achievements and contributions reported mainly during the last decade and a half, as a result of both laboratory studies and field observations. Processes of homogeneous and heterogeneous nucleation are analyzed in the aspects of condensation, nuclei diversity and specifics, as related to the activation, growth and deposition of fog droplets. The effect is highlighted of the water vapor’s partial pressure on the surface tension of the liquid water–air interface and the freezing point of the water droplets. Some problems and aspects of fog modeling, parameterization, and forecasting are outlined and discussed on the examples of newly developed relevant 1D/3D theoretical models. Important issues of fog impacts on the air quality, ecosystems, water basins, societal life, and human health are also addressed and discussed, particularly in cases of anthropogenically modified (chemical, radioactive, etc. fogs. In view of reducing the possible negative effects of fogs, conclusions are drawn concerning the new demands and challenges to fog characterization imposed by the changing natural and social environment and the needs for new data on and approaches to more adequate observations of fog-related events.

  1. Financial Forecasting and Stochastic Modeling: Predicting the Impact of Business Decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubin, Geoffrey D; Patel, Bhavik N

    2017-05-01

    In health care organizations, effective investment of precious resources is critical to assure that the organization delivers high-quality and sustainable patient care within a supportive environment for patients, their families, and the health care providers. This holds true for organizations independent of size, from small practices to large health systems. For radiologists whose role is to oversee the delivery of imaging services and the interpretation, communication, and curation of imaging-informed information, business decisions influence where and how they practice, the tools available for image acquisition and interpretation, and ultimately their professional satisfaction. With so much at stake, physicians must understand and embrace the methods necessary to develop and interpret robust financial analyses so they effectively participate in and better understand decision making. This review discusses the financial drivers upon which health care organizations base investment decisions and the central role that stochastic financial modeling should play in support of strategically aligned capital investments. Given a health care industry that has been slow to embrace advanced financial analytics, a fundamental message of this review is that the skills and analytical tools are readily attainable and well worth the effort to implement in the interest of informed decision making. © RSNA, 2017 Online supplemental material is available for this article.

  2. Price (slump) forecast : the potential impact on pipelines, producers and marketers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duncan, J.

    2002-01-01

    Throughout this presentation, the speaker answers three basic questions: (1) why are the prices of natural gas so high?, (2) why were the prices of natural gas so high? and (3) will prices for natural gas ever go that high again? The evolution of gas supply and demand including the Canadian supply picture is briefly reviewed. The winter of 2000 and the paradox it presented was discussed, providing a history lesson of an industry taken for granted. The cold winter of 2000 saw industry players scrambling to determine where they would get gas, and the winter of 2001 witnessed them wondering where to put this gas. The new character of the market and the players is discussed, looking at the producer, pipeline expansion projects, and the end user. Neglected investment in the sector and its consequences are dealt with in the next stage of the presentation. The synthetic supply and demand theory are examined. The author concludes the presentation by discussing the factors affecting the market today, such as storage inventory creating volatility, decrease in production and imports due to lag in time when prices are depressed, increased participation by speculators due to increased uncertainty in the stock market, recent weather questions that magnify price movements, and the environment. figs

  3. Nutrition-labeling regulation impacts on restaurant environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saelens, Brian E; Chan, Nadine L; Krieger, James; Nelson, Young; Boles, Myde; Colburn, Trina A; Glanz, Karen; Ta, Myduc L; Bruemmer, Barbara

    2012-11-01

    Recent attempts to improve the healthfulness of away-from-home eating include regulations requiring restaurants to post nutrition information. The impact of such regulations on restaurant environments is unknown. To examine changes in restaurant environments from before to after nutrition-labeling regulation in a newly regulated county versus a nonregulated county. Using the Nutrition Environment Measures Survey-Restaurant version audit, environments within the same quick-service chain restaurants were evaluated in King County (regulated) before and 6 and 18 months after regulation enforcement and in Multnomah County (nonregulated) restaurants over a 6-month period. Data were collected in 2008-2010 and analyses conducted in 2011. Overall availability of healthy options and facilitation of healthy eating did not increase differentially in King County versus Multnomah County restaurants aside from the substantial increase in onsite nutrition information posting in King County restaurants required by the new regulation. Barriers to healthful eating decreased in King County relative to Multnomah County restaurants, particularly in food-oriented establishments. King County restaurants demonstrated modest increases in signage that promotes healthy eating, although the frequency of such promotion remained low, and the availability of reduced portions decreased in these restaurants. The healthfulness of children's menus improved modestly over time, but not differentially by county. A restaurant nutrition-labeling regulation was accompanied by some, but not uniform, improvements in other aspects of restaurant environments in the regulated compared to the nonregulated county. Additional opportunities exist for improving the healthfulness of away-from-home eating beyond menu labeling. Copyright © 2012 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Application of fuzzy – Neuro to model weather parameter variability impacts on electrical load based on long-term forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Danladi Ali

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Long-term load forecasting provides vital information about future load and it helps the power industries to make decision regarding electrical energy generation and delivery. In this work, fuzzy – neuro model is developed to forecast a year ahead load in relation to weather parameter (temperature and humidity in Mubi, Adamawa State. It is observed that: electrical load increased with increase in temperature and relative humidity does not show notable effect on electrical load. The accuracy of the prediction is obtained at 98.78% with the corresponding mean absolute percentage error (MAPE of 1.22%. This confirms that fuzzy – neuro is a good tool for load forecasting. Keywords: Electrical load, Load forecasting, Fuzzy logic, Back propagation, Neuro-fuzzy, Weather parameter

  5. Forecasted Impact of Climate Change on Infectious Disease and Health Security in Hawaii by 2050.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canyon, Deon V; Speare, Rick; Burkle, Frederick M

    2016-12-01

    Climate change is expected to cause extensive shifts in the epidemiology of infectious and vector-borne diseases. Scenarios on the effects of climate change typically attribute altered distribution of communicable diseases to a rise in average temperature and altered incidence of infectious diseases to weather extremes. Recent evaluations of the effects of climate change on Hawaii have not explored this link. It may be expected that Hawaii's natural geography and robust water, sanitation, and health care infrastructure renders residents less vulnerable to many threats that are the focus on smaller, lesser developed, and more vulnerable Pacific islands. In addition, Hawaii's communicable disease surveillance and response system can act rapidly to counter increases in any disease above baseline and to redirect resources to deal with changes, particularly outbreaks due to exotic pathogens. The evidence base examined in this article consistently revealed very low climate sensitivity with respect to infectious and mosquito-borne diseases. A community resilience model is recommended to increase adaptive capacity for all possible climate change impacts rather an approach that focuses specifically on communicable diseases. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2016;10:797-804).

  6. Forecasting the impact of an 1859-caliber superstorm on geosynchronous Earth-orbiting satellites: Transponder resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Odenwald, Sten F.; Green, James L.

    2007-06-01

    We calculate the economic impact on the existing geosynchronous Earth-orbiting satellite population of an 1859-caliber superstorm event were it to occur between 2008 and 2018 during the next solar activity cycle. From a detailed model for transponder capacity and leasing, we have investigated the total revenue loss over the entire solar cycle, as a function of superstorm onset year and intensity. Our Monte Carlo simulations of 1000 possible superstorms, of varying intensity and onset year, suggest that the minimum revenue loss could be of the order of 30 billion. The losses would be larger than this if more that 20 satellites are disabled, if future launch rates do not keep up with the expected rate of retirements, or if the number of spare transponders falls below ˜30%. Consequently, revenue losses can be significantly reduced below 30 billion if the current satellite population undergoes net growth beyond 300 units during Solar Cycle 24 and a larger margin of unused transponders is maintained.

  7. Ensemble Flow Forecasts for Risk Based Reservoir Operations of Lake Mendocino in Mendocino County, California: A Framework for Objectively Leveraging Weather and Climate Forecasts in a Decision Support Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delaney, C.; Hartman, R. K.; Mendoza, J.; Whitin, B.

    2017-12-01

    Forecast informed reservoir operations (FIRO) is a methodology that incorporates short to mid-range precipitation and flow forecasts to inform the flood operations of reservoirs. The Ensemble Forecast Operations (EFO) alternative is a probabilistic approach of FIRO that incorporates ensemble streamflow predictions (ESPs) made by NOAA's California-Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC). With the EFO approach, release decisions are made to manage forecasted risk of reaching critical operational thresholds. A water management model was developed for Lake Mendocino, a 111,000 acre-foot reservoir located near Ukiah, California, to evaluate the viability of the EFO alternative to improve water supply reliability but not increase downstream flood risk. Lake Mendocino is a dual use reservoir, which is owned and operated for flood control by the United States Army Corps of Engineers and is operated for water supply by the Sonoma County Water Agency. Due to recent changes in the operations of an upstream hydroelectric facility, this reservoir has suffered from water supply reliability issues since 2007. The EFO alternative was simulated using a 26-year (1985-2010) ESP hindcast generated by the CNRFC. The ESP hindcast was developed using Global Ensemble Forecast System version 10 precipitation reforecasts processed with the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System to generate daily reforecasts of 61 flow ensemble members for a 15-day forecast horizon. Model simulation results demonstrate that the EFO alternative may improve water supply reliability for Lake Mendocino yet not increase flood risk for downstream areas. The developed operations framework can directly leverage improved skill in the second week of the forecast and is extendable into the S2S time domain given the demonstration of improved skill through a reliable reforecast of adequate historical duration and consistent with operationally available numerical weather predictions.

  8. Impacts of cement industries on environment and control measure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hashmi, H.N.; Malik, H.N.; Naushad, Z.

    2005-01-01

    Utilization of cement as building material is gaining more importance. Cement industries around the world are contributing in global and as well as local pollution. In Pakistan most of the cement industries are constructed in remote areas without any proper environmental impact assessment. Unawareness of peoples toward sustainable environment and due to lack of job opportunities, dwellers are demanding employment rather than clean environment from title-holder of the industry. Air pollution caused by cement industries is harmful to the human's health, spoils and erodes building surface, corrodes metals, weakens textiles, deteriorates atmospheric visibility, affects plant life and leads to ecological imbalances. To investigate environmental impact of cement industries in Pakistan, environmental conditions around and inside the five cement industries in the vicinity of Taxila city are studied. To inspect the whole scenario, air pollution control devices in these industries were also examined in detail. These industries are using Electrostatic Precipitators and Baghouses to control air pollution (dust particulates). Proper caring of these equipment is necessary for better results. Detailed study shows that emissions from their stacks and dust particulates are causing problems. Health consultants in study area are much worry about the health of workers and environmental degradation in the vicinity of these industries. The comparison of air pollution control devices shows that Baghouses are environmental friendly. Considering the field conditions it is also concluded that involvement of government and environmental pollution control agencies is much more necessary. (author)

  9. Box Office Forecasting considering Competitive Environment and Word-of-Mouth in Social Networks: A Case Study of Korean Film Market.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Taegu; Hong, Jungsik; Kang, Pilsung

    2017-01-01

    Accurate box office forecasting models are developed by considering competition and word-of-mouth (WOM) effects in addition to screening-related information. Nationality, genre, ratings, and distributors of motion pictures running concurrently with the target motion picture are used to describe the competition, whereas the numbers of informative, positive, and negative mentions posted on social network services (SNS) are used to gauge the atmosphere spread by WOM. Among these candidate variables, only significant variables are selected by genetic algorithm (GA), based on which machine learning algorithms are trained to build forecasting models. The forecasts are combined to improve forecasting performance. Experimental results on the Korean film market show that the forecasting accuracy in early screening periods can be significantly improved by considering competition. In addition, WOM has a stronger influence on total box office forecasting. Considering both competition and WOM improves forecasting performance to a larger extent than when only one of them is considered.

  10. Box Office Forecasting considering Competitive Environment and Word-of-Mouth in Social Networks: A Case Study of Korean Film Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Taegu Kim

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Accurate box office forecasting models are developed by considering competition and word-of-mouth (WOM effects in addition to screening-related information. Nationality, genre, ratings, and distributors of motion pictures running concurrently with the target motion picture are used to describe the competition, whereas the numbers of informative, positive, and negative mentions posted on social network services (SNS are used to gauge the atmosphere spread by WOM. Among these candidate variables, only significant variables are selected by genetic algorithm (GA, based on which machine learning algorithms are trained to build forecasting models. The forecasts are combined to improve forecasting performance. Experimental results on the Korean film market show that the forecasting accuracy in early screening periods can be significantly improved by considering competition. In addition, WOM has a stronger influence on total box office forecasting. Considering both competition and WOM improves forecasting performance to a larger extent than when only one of them is considered.

  11. Multidisciplinary studies of the social, economic and political impact resulting from recent advances in satellite meteorology. Volume 6: Executive summary. [technological forecasting spacecraft control/attitude (inclination) -classical mechanics

    Science.gov (United States)

    1975-01-01

    An assessment of the technological impact of modern satellite weather forecasting for the United States is presented. Topics discussed are: (1) television broadcasting of weather; (2) agriculture (crop production); (3) water resources; (4) urban development; (5) recreation; and (6) transportation.

  12. Asymmetric competition impacts evolutionary rescue in a changing environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Den Elzen, Courtney L; Kleynhans, Elizabeth J; Otto, Sarah P

    2017-06-28

    Interspecific competition can strongly influence the evolutionary response of a species to a changing environment, impacting the chance that the species survives or goes extinct. Previous work has shown that when two species compete for a temporally shifting resource distribution, the species lagging behind the resource peak is the first to go extinct due to competitive exclusion. However, this work assumed symmetrically distributed resources and competition. Asymmetries can generate differences between species in population sizes, genetic variation and trait means. We show that asymmetric resource availability or competition can facilitate coexistence and even occasionally cause the leading species to go extinct first. Surprisingly, we also find cases where traits evolve in the opposite direction to the changing environment because of a 'vacuum of competitive release' created when the lagging species declines in number. Thus, the species exhibiting the slowest rate of trait evolution is not always the most likely to go extinct in a changing environment. Our results demonstrate that the extent to which species appear to be tracking environmental change and the extent to which they are preadapted to that change may not necessarily determine which species will be the winners and which will be the losers in a rapidly changing world. © 2017 The Author(s).

  13. Viral Aggregation: Impact on Virus Behavior in the Environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerba, Charles P; Betancourt, Walter Q

    2017-07-05

    Aggregates of viruses can have a significant impact on quantification and behavior of viruses in the environment. Viral aggregates may be formed in numerous ways. Viruses may form crystal like structures and aggregates in the host cell during replication or may form due to changes in environmental conditions after virus particles are released from the host cells. Aggregates tend to form near the isoelectric point of the virus, under the influence of certain salts and salt concentrations in solution, cationic polymers, and suspended organic matter. The given conditions under which aggregates form in the environment are highly dependent on the type of virus, type of salts in solution (cation, anion. monovalent, divalent) and pH. However, virus type greatly influences the conditions when aggregation/disaggregation will occur, making predictions difficult under any given set of water quality conditions. Most studies have shown that viral aggregates increase the survival of viruses in the environment and resistance to disinfectants, especially with more reactive disinfectants. The presence of viral aggregates may also result in overestimation of removal by filtration processes. Virus aggregation-disaggregation is a complex process and predicting the behavior of any individual virus is difficult under a given set of environmental circumstances without actual experimental data.

  14. Supercluster simulations: impact of baryons on the matter power spectrum and weak lensing forecasts for Super-CLASS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters, Aaron; Brown, Michael L.; Kay, Scott T.; Barnes, David J.

    2018-03-01

    We use a combination of full hydrodynamic and dark matter only simulations to investigate the effect that supercluster environments and baryonic physics have on the matter power spectrum, by re-simulating a sample of supercluster sub-volumes. On large scales we find that the matter power spectrum measured from our supercluster sample has at least twice as much power as that measured from our random sample. Our investigation of the effect of baryonic physics on the matter power spectrum is found to be in agreement with previous studies and is weaker than the selection effect over the majority of scales. In addition, we investigate the effect of targeting a cosmologically non-representative, supercluster region of the sky on the weak lensing shear power spectrum. We do this by generating shear and convergence maps using a line-of-sight integration technique, which intercepts our random and supercluster sub-volumes. We find the convergence power spectrum measured from our supercluster sample has a larger amplitude than that measured from the random sample at all scales. We frame our results within the context of the Super-CLuster Assisted Shear Survey (Super-CLASS), which aims to measure the cosmic shear signal in the radio band by targeting a region of the sky that contains five Abell clusters. Assuming the Super-CLASS survey will have a source density of 1.5 galaxies arcmin-2, we forecast a detection significance of 2.7^{+1.5}_{-1.2}, which indicates that in the absence of systematics the Super-CLASS project could make a cosmic shear detection with radio data alone.

  15. Ensemble hydromoeteorological forecasting in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lucatero Villasenor, Diana

    forecasts where a dampening of the differences of precipitation quality occurs. Seasonal meteorological forecasts are possible due to changes of large scale patterns of the ocean and land, such as el Niño, that evolve at a much slower pace than the atmosphere, which can have an impact on its evolution later...

  16. Now, Here's the Weather Forecast...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, Mathew

    2013-01-01

    The Met Office has a long history of weather forecasting, creating tailored weather forecasts for customers across the world. Based in Exeter, the Met Office is also home to the Met Office Hadley Centre, a world-leading centre for the study of climate change and its potential impacts. Climate information from the Met Office Hadley Centre is used…

  17. Big Data impacts on stochastic Forecast Models: Evidence from FX time series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sebastian Dietz

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available With the rise of the Big Data paradigm new tasks for prediction models appeared. In addition to the volume problem of such data sets nonlinearity becomes important, as the more detailed data sets contain also more comprehensive information, e.g. about non regular seasonal or cyclical movements as well as jumps in time series. This essay compares two nonlinear methods for predicting a high frequency time series, the USD/Euro exchange rate. The first method investigated is Autoregressive Neural Network Processes (ARNN, a neural network based nonlinear extension of classical autoregressive process models from time series analysis (see Dietz 2011. Its advantage is its simple but scalable time series process model architecture, which is able to include all kinds of nonlinearities based on the universal approximation theorem of Hornik, Stinchcombe and White 1989 and the extensions of Hornik 1993. However, restrictions related to the numeric estimation procedures limit the flexibility of the model. The alternative is a Support Vector Machine Model (SVM, Vapnik 1995. The two methods compared have different approaches of error minimization (Empirical error minimization at the ARNN vs. structural error minimization at the SVM. Our new finding is, that time series data classified as “Big Data” need new methods for prediction. Estimation and prediction was performed using the statistical programming language R. Besides prediction results we will also discuss the impact of Big Data on data preparation and model validation steps. Normal 0 21 false false false DE X-NONE X-NONE /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Normale Tabelle"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";}

  18. Evaluating the Impacts of NASA/SPoRT Daily Greenness Vegetation Fraction on Land Surface Model and Numerical Weather Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, Jordan R.; Case, Jonathan L.; Molthan, Andrew L.

    2011-01-01

    The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center develops new products and techniques that can be used in operational meteorology. The majority of these products are derived from NASA polar-orbiting satellite imagery from the Earth Observing System (EOS) platforms. One such product is a Greenness Vegetation Fraction (GVF) dataset, which is produced from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data aboard the NASA EOS Aqua and Terra satellites. NASA SPoRT began generating daily real-time GVF composites at 1-km resolution over the Continental United States (CONUS) on 1 June 2010. The purpose of this study is to compare the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) climatology GVF product (currently used in operational weather models) to the SPoRT-MODIS GVF during June to October 2010. The NASA Land Information System (LIS) was employed to study the impacts of the new SPoRT-MODIS GVF dataset on land surface models apart from a full numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. For the 2010 warm season, the SPoRT GVF in the western portion of the CONUS was generally higher than the NCEP climatology. The eastern CONUS GVF had variations both above and below the climatology during the period of study. These variations in GVF led to direct impacts on the rates of heating and evaporation from the land surface. The second phase of the project is to examine the impacts of the SPoRT GVF dataset on NWP using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Two separate WRF model simulations were made for individual severe weather case days using the NCEP GVF (control) and SPoRT GVF (experimental), with all other model parameters remaining the same. Based on the sensitivity results in these case studies, regions with higher GVF in the SPoRT model runs had higher evapotranspiration and lower direct surface heating, which typically resulted in lower (higher) predicted 2-m temperatures (2-m dewpoint temperatures). The opposite was true

  19. Evaluating the Impacts of NASA/SPoRT Daily Greenness Vegetation Fraction on Land Surface Model and Numerical Weather Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, Jordan R.; Case, Jonathan L.; LaFontaine, Frank J.; Kumar, Sujay V.

    2012-01-01

    The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has developed a Greenness Vegetation Fraction (GVF) dataset, which is updated daily using swaths of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data aboard the NASA EOS Aqua and Terra satellites. NASA SPoRT began generating daily real-time GVF composites at 1-km resolution over the Continental United States (CONUS) on 1 June 2010. The purpose of this study is to compare the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) climatology GVF product (currently used in operational weather models) to the SPoRT-MODIS GVF during June to October 2010. The NASA Land Information System (LIS) was employed to study the impacts of the SPoRT-MODIS GVF dataset on a land surface model (LSM) apart from a full numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. For the 2010 warm season, the SPoRT GVF in the western portion of the CONUS was generally higher than the NCEP climatology. The eastern CONUS GVF had variations both above and below the climatology during the period of study. These variations in GVF led to direct impacts on the rates of heating and evaporation from the land surface. In the West, higher latent heat fluxes prevailed, which enhanced the rates of evapotranspiration and soil moisture depletion in the LSM. By late Summer and Autumn, both the average sensible and latent heat fluxes increased in the West as a result of the more rapid soil drying and higher coverage of GVF. The impacts of the SPoRT GVF dataset on NWP was also examined for a single severe weather case study using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Two separate coupled LIS/WRF model simulations were made for the 17 July 2010 severe weather event in the Upper Midwest using the NCEP and SPoRT GVFs, with all other model parameters remaining the same. Based on the sensitivity results, regions with higher GVF in the SPoRT model runs had higher evapotranspiration and

  20. Impact of seasonal forecast use on agricultural income in a system with varying crop costs and returns: an empirically-grounded simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunda, T.; Bazuin, J. T.; Nay, J.; Yeung, K. L.

    2017-03-01

    Access to seasonal climate forecasts can benefit farmers by allowing them to make more informed decisions about their farming practices. However, it is unclear whether farmers realize these benefits when crop choices available to farmers have different and variable costs and returns; multiple countries have programs that incentivize production of certain crops while other crops are subject to market fluctuations. We hypothesize that the benefits of forecasts on farmer livelihoods will be moderated by the combined impact of differing crop economics and changing climate. Drawing upon methods and insights from both physical and social sciences, we develop a model of farmer decision-making to evaluate this hypothesis. The model dynamics are explored using empirical data from Sri Lanka; primary sources include survey and interview information as well as game-based experiments conducted with farmers in the field. Our simulations show that a farmer using seasonal forecasts has more diversified crop selections, which drive increases in average agricultural income. Increases in income are particularly notable under a drier climate scenario, when a farmer using seasonal forecasts is more likely to plant onions, a crop with higher possible returns. Our results indicate that, when water resources are scarce (i.e. drier climate scenario), farmer incomes could become stratified, potentially compounding existing disparities in farmers’ financial and technical abilities to use forecasts to inform their crop selections. This analysis highlights that while programs that promote production of certain crops may ensure food security in the short-term, the long-term implications of these dynamics need careful evaluation.

  1. Forecast of nuclear energetics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sikora, W

    1976-01-01

    The forecast concerning the development of nuclear energetics is presented. Some information on economics of nuclear power plants is given. The nuclear fuel reserves are estimated on the background of power resources of the world. The safety and environment protection problems are mentioned.

  2. Impact of thermal discharge on marine environment - an overview

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murugesan, A.G.; Rameshwari, S.; Sukumaran, N.

    2002-01-01

    Thermal pollution has been used to indicate the detrimental effects of heated effluents discharged by power plants and other industries. It denotes the impairment of quality and deterioration of aquatic and terrestrial environment through heated effluent and fly ash. Various industrial plants like thermal, atomic, nuclear, coal fired plants, oil field generators, factories and mills utilize water for cooling purposes. In India, there are about 60 thermal power plants, which produce 30 million tonnes of fly ash every year. The heated effluents from power plants is discharged at a temperature, which is 8-10 degC higher than that of intake marine water. The adverse effect of thermal discharge are visible in microorganism, fish, biotic life and the over all ecosystems. The discharge of heated effluents actually affects the fish respiration, metabolism and other physiological activities of marine organisms, which ultimately leads to death. This could be due to synergism because of toxic chemical such as copper, nickel, chromium and chlorine, which are used to remove slimes in the pipelines. The major waste material from thermal power station is the fly ash that creates enormous pollution problem to air, water and soil environment. Fly ash possess large amounts of lead, cobalt, chromium, cadmium etc. When this fly ash is released out through water carriage system it leads to turbidity, over deposition and flood also. Tuticorin Thermal Power Station (TTPS) has installed five power generation units each of 250 MW capacities. About 1.35 lakhs m 3 /hr water is drawn from the sea, utilized for cooling and then the heated effluent is discharged into the same environment. Therefore, this paper deals with various impacts associated with thermal discharge on marine environment. (author)

  3. Exposure Forecaster

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The Exposure Forecaster Database (ExpoCastDB) is EPA's database for aggregating chemical exposure information and can be used to help with chemical exposure...

  4. Strategic Forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Duus, Henrik Johannsen

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this article is to present an overview of the area of strategic forecasting and its research directions and to put forward some ideas for improving management decisions. Design/methodology/approach: This article is conceptual but also informed by the author’s long contact...... and collaboration with various business firms. It starts by presenting an overview of the area and argues that the area is as much a way of thinking as a toolbox of theories and methodologies. It then spells out a number of research directions and ideas for management. Findings: Strategic forecasting is seen...... as a rebirth of long range planning, albeit with new methods and theories. Firms should make the building of strategic forecasting capability a priority. Research limitations/implications: The article subdivides strategic forecasting into three research avenues and suggests avenues for further research efforts...

  5. The impact of convection in the West African monsoon region on global weather forecasts - explicit vs. parameterised convection simulations using the ICON model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pante, Gregor; Knippertz, Peter

    2017-04-01

    The West African monsoon is the driving element of weather and climate during summer in the Sahel region. It interacts with mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and the African easterly jet and African easterly waves. Poor representation of convection in numerical models, particularly its organisation on the mesoscale, can result in unrealistic forecasts of the monsoon dynamics. Arguably, the parameterisation of convection is one of the main deficiencies in models over this region. Overall, this has negative impacts on forecasts over West Africa itself but may also affect remote regions, as waves originating from convective heating are badly represented. Here we investigate those remote forecast impacts based on daily initialised 10-day forecasts for July 2016 using the ICON model. One set of simulations employs the default setup of the global model with a horizontal grid spacing of 13 km. It is compared with simulations using the 2-way nesting capability of ICON. A second model domain over West Africa (the nest) with 6.5 km grid spacing is sufficient to explicitly resolve MCSs in this region. In the 2-way nested simulations, the prognostic variables of the global model are influenced by the results of the nest through relaxation. The nest with explicit convection is able to reproduce single MCSs much more realistically compared to the stand-alone global simulation with parameterised convection. Explicit convection leads to cooler temperatures in the lower troposphere (below 500 hPa) over the northern Sahel due to stronger evaporational cooling. Overall, the feedback of dynamic variables from the nest to the global model shows clear positive effects when evaluating the output of the global domain of the 2-way nesting simulation and the output of the stand-alone global model with ERA-Interim re-analyses. Averaged over the 2-way nested region, bias and root mean squared error (RMSE) of temperature, geopotential, wind and relative humidity are significantly reduced in

  6. Impact of scatterometer wind (ASCAT-A/B) data assimilation on semi real-time forecast system at KIAPS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, H. J.; Kang, J. H.

    2016-12-01

    Since Jul. 2015, KIAPS (Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems) has been performing the semi real-time forecast system to assess the performance of their forecast system as a NWP model. KPOP (KIAPS Protocol for Observation Processing) is a part of KIAPS data assimilation system and has been performing well in KIAPS semi real-time forecast system. In this study, due to the fact that KPOP would be able to treat the scatterometer wind data, we analyze the effect of scatterometer wind (ASCAT-A/B) on KIAPS semi real-time forecast system. O-B global distribution and statistics of scatterometer wind give use two information which are the difference between background field and observation is not too large and KPOP processed the scatterometer wind data well. The changes of analysis increment because of O-B global distribution appear remarkably at the bottom of atmospheric field. It also shows that scatterometer wind data cover wide ocean where data would be able to short. Performance of scatterometer wind data can be checked through the vertical error reduction against IFS between background and analysis field and vertical statistics of O-A. By these analysis result, we can notice that scatterometer wind data will influence the positive effect on lower level performance of semi real-time forecast system at KIAPS. After, long-term result based on effect of scatterometer wind data will be analyzed.

  7. Road traffic flow and impact on environment in Hyderabad city

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Memon, Zaheer-ud-Din; Ansari, A.K.; Memon, S.A.

    2000-01-01

    In Hyderabad city due to dramatic increase in traffic intensity on the roads, traffic flow have been much beyond the comfortable limits. High values of traffic flow density have been recorded on Court Road (34.05%), Tilak Road (19.87%), Risala Road (22.91%) and Cafe George (23.14%) of Hyderabad city. Above 80% people are found to be annoyed due to traffic congestion, noise and smoke resulting in health ailments. Slow Moving Vehicles (SMVs) comprising of animal and hand drawn vehicles (rehras) cause serious disruption in the traffic stream on city roads, which are ultimately causing traffic-jam condition resulting a serious impact on environment. No definite parking places exist for public vehicles because of encroachment on roads. Proper foot paths are not available for pedestrian, which results in increase in accidents. (author)

  8. Impact of Interior Physical Environment on Academicians’ Productivity in Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ambreen Saleem

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This study empirically examines the impact of indoor physical environment on academicians‟ productivity in different higher education institutes of Khyber Pakhtoonkhawa (KPK province of Pakistan. The study is based on primary data collected from one hundred and forty four educationists‟ of various institutes in Pakistan namely, COMSATS Abbottabad campus, Hazara University, Mansehra campus, UET campus, Abbottabad, Hazara University, Havelian campus, Comwave university, Abbottabad campus and University of Peshawar. A structured questionnaire was used for data collection. The data was analyzed using the techniques of rank correlation coefficient and multiple regression analysis. All the findings were tested at 0.01 and 0.05 level of significance. The finding of this study shows that office design is very important in terms of increasing employees‟s productivity. The study opines that comfortable and contented office design motivates and energizes the employees to increase their performance.

  9. Long-Term Forecast 2012 - An impact analysis of existing policy instruments in energy- and climate area; Laangsiktsprognos 2012 - En konsekvensanalys av gaellande styrmedel inom energi- och klimatomraadet

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-08-01

    The Energy Agency has a mandate that under 'Ordinance on climate reporting' (SFS 2005:626) out projections for the energy sector of the European Parliament and Council Decision No 280/2004/EC concerning a 'Mechanism for monitoring the emissions of the Community greenhouse gas'. This report contains a reference trajectory until 2030, and two sensitivity scenarios. The forecast is based on existing instruments, which means that results of the report should not be regarded as a proper projection of future energy, but as the impact of current policy instruments given different conditions such as economic growth and fuel prices. The Energy Authority's long-term forecasts are studied energy system's long-term development on the basis of policy instruments and several assumed conditions. The conditions for this long-term prognosis was established in January 2012 and has its basis in the policy instruments decided until the turn of 2011/2012. The work was partially done in conjunction with the Environmental Protection Agency assignments 'Assignment to provide input to a Swedish road map for Sweden without greenhouse gas emissions in 2050' as reported in December 2012. For a short-term development of the energy system the reader is referred to the Energy Authority's short-term forecasts that extend two to three years into the future and that are produced twice a year. Energy Agency's long-term projections are impact assessments with time horizon of 10-20 years which aims to describe the energy system's future development, provided a range of assumed conditions. If any of these conditions change it will also change forecast results. Economic development is an important assumption for the assessment of future energy.

  10. Possible impacts of CO2 storage on the marine environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poremski, H.J.

    2005-01-01

    This study examined the potential impacts of deep-sea carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) sequestration on the marine environment. The upper layers of oceans are currently saturated with CO 2 , while deeper ocean waters remain undersaturated. Arctic and Antarctic waters have higher uptake rates of CO 2 due to their lower temperatures. CO 2 deposited in Arctic and Antarctic waters sinks to the bottom of the ocean, and is then transported to equatorial latitudes, where stored amounts of CO 2 that are not fixed by biochemical processes will be released and enter the atmosphere again after a period of approximately 1000 years. Nearly 50 per cent of CO 2 fixation occurs as a result of phytoplankton growth, which is dependent on the availability of a range of nutrients, essential trace metals, and optimal physical conditions. Fertilization-induced CO 2 fixation in the sediments of southern oceans will result in nutrient depletion of bottom layers, which will in turn result in lower primary production levels at equatorial latitudes. Current modelling approaches to CO 2 injection assume that the injected CO 2 will dissolve in a plume extending 100 m around a riser. Retention times of several hundred years are anticipated. However, further research is needed to investigate the efficacy of CO 2 deep ocean storage technologies. Increased CO 2 uptake can also increase the formation of bicarbonate (HCO 3 ) acidification, decrease pH values, and inhibit the formation of biomass in addition to impacting on the calcification of many organisms. It was concluded that ocean storage by injection or deep storage is an untenable option at present due to the fact that the effects of excessive CO 2 in marine environments are not fully understood. 22 refs., 2 tabs

  11. A preliminary study of the impact of the ERS 1 C band scatterometer wind data on the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts global data assimilation system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffman, Ross N.

    1993-01-01

    A preliminary assessment of the impact of the ERS 1 scatterometer wind data on the current European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts analysis and forecast system has been carried out. Although the scatterometer data results in changes to the analyses and forecasts, there is no consistent improvement or degradation. Our results are based on comparing analyses and forecasts from assimilation cycles. The two sets of analyses are very similar except for the low level wind fields over the ocean. Impacts on the analyzed wind fields are greater over the southern ocean, where other data are scarce. For the most part the mass field increments are too small to balance the wind increments. The effect of the nonlinear normal mode initialization on the analysis differences is quite small, but we observe that the differences tend to wash out in the subsequent 6-hour forecast. In the Northern Hemisphere, analysis differences are very small, except directly at the scatterometer locations. Forecast comparisons reveal large differences in the Southern Hemisphere after 72 hours. Notable differences in the Northern Hemisphere do not appear until late in the forecast. Overall, however, the Southern Hemisphere impacts are neutral. The experiments described are preliminary in several respects. We expect these data to ultimately prove useful for global data assimilation.

  12. Long-term forecast 2010; Laangsiktsprognos 2010

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2011-07-01

    This report presents the energy forecast to the year 2030, and two different sensitivity scenarios. The forecast is based on existing instruments, which means that the report's findings should not be considered a proper forecast of the future energy use, but as an impact assessment of existing policy instruments, given different circumstances such as economic growth and fuel prices

  13. Incubation environment impacts the social cognition of adult lizards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siviter, Harry; Deeming, D Charles; van Giezen, M F T; Wilkinson, Anna

    2017-11-01

    Recent work exploring the relationship between early environmental conditions and cognition has shown that incubation environment can influence both brain anatomy and performance in simple operant tasks in young lizards. It is currently unknown how it impacts other, potentially more sophisticated, cognitive processes. Social-cognitive abilities, such as gaze following and social learning, are thought to be highly adaptive as they provide a short-cut to acquiring new information. Here, we investigated whether egg incubation temperature influenced two aspects of social cognition, gaze following and social learning in adult reptiles ( Pogona vitticeps ). Incubation temperature did not influence the gaze following ability of the bearded dragons; however, lizards incubated at colder temperatures were quicker at learning a social task and faster at completing that task. These results are the first to show that egg incubation temperature influences the social cognitive abilities of an oviparous reptile species and that it does so differentially depending on the task. Further, the results show that the effect of incubation environment was not ephemeral but lasted long into adulthood. It could thus have potential long-term effects on fitness.

  14. Learning environment: the impact of clerkship location on instructional quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prunuske, Jacob P; Deci, David M

    2013-03-01

    Students provide variable feedback on instructional quality at ambulatory training sites. We hypothesized several strengths and weaknesses of placing students at resident and non-resident training sites, including differences in faculty behaviors, patient characteristics, work environment, learning opportunities, and levels of student engagement. We systematically assessed for differences in learning quality between clerkship sites with and without residents. Students completed the MedED IQ, a validated survey assessing four domains of instructional quality, after completing a required primary care rotation. We calculated descriptive and summary statistics and two sample tests of proportion analyzing student agreement with each MedEd IQ item with respect to the presence or absence of resident learners. Of 149 total, 113 (75.8%) students completed the MedEd IQ site survey. A greater percentage of students at resident training sites (25.8%) than at non-resident sites (7.3%) agreed with the statement "The opportunities were too diverse, preventing me from developing proficiency." A greater percentage of students at resident training sites (19.4%) than at non-resident sites (1.2%) agreed with the statement "The health care team was not supportive of my learning." There were no differences between sites with or without residents on 14 items measuring preceptor actions or seven items measuring student involvement. Ambulatory clerkship sites with and without residents provide comparable quality learning experiences and precepting. Students placed at resident training sites may be overwhelmed with diverse opportunities and have a less supportive learning environment than students placed at non-resident sites. Future research should evaluate the impact of health care team development programs designed to foster a more supportive training environment for medical students. Ways of aligning residency and medical student education goals within the training setting should be

  15. Impact of oil and related chemicals on the marine environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-01-01

    This review updates a previous review entitled ''Impact of Oil on the Marine Environment''. It covers oil and individual hydrocarbons, used lubricating oils, chemical control agents for oil spills, and wastes from offshore petroleum operations. It considers all major knowledge generated since the mid-1970s. The review covers its topics comprehensively, from a consideration of the composition, sources and inputs of oil to its ecological and human health effects and its effects on man's use of the sea. The review addresses several key questions on the present levels of contamination, the impact of hydrocarbons and related chemicals on marine biota, the recovery potential of marine ecosystems exposed to these contaminants, the degree of protection required for marine ecosystems known to be vulnerable and sensitive, and recommended research and other actions to fill gaps in knowledge. The review describes the hazards of marine oil pollution and associated chemicals and wastes as they are understood currently, and clarifies the importance of reducing oil inputs in coastal and offshore waters. It assists in considering fundamental questions, asked by the public and decision-makers alike, such as: how much oil is entering our oceans, and how much harm is it doing? (author)

  16. A Delphi forecast of technology in education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, B. E.

    1973-01-01

    The results are reported of a Delphi forecast of the utilization and social impacts of large-scale educational telecommunications technology. The focus is on both forecasting methodology and educational technology. The various methods of forecasting used by futurists are analyzed from the perspective of the most appropriate method for a prognosticator of educational technology, and review and critical analysis are presented of previous forecasts and studies. Graphic responses, summarized comments, and a scenario of education in 1990 are presented.

  17. Forecasting metal prices: Do forecasters herd?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pierdzioch, C.; Rulke, J. C.; Stadtmann, G.

    2013-01-01

    We analyze more than 20,000 forecasts of nine metal prices at four different forecast horizons. We document that forecasts are heterogeneous and report that anti-herding appears to be a source of this heterogeneity. Forecaster anti-herding reflects strategic interactions among forecasters...

  18. Forecasting Winter Storms in the Sierra: A Social Science Perspective in Keeping the Public Safe without Negatively Impacting the Local Tourism Industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milne, R.; Wallmann, J.; Myrick, D. T.

    2010-12-01

    The National Weather Service Office in Reno is responsible for issuing Blizzard Warnings, Winter Storm Warnings, and Winter Weather Advisories for the Sierra, including the Lake Tahoe Basin and heavily traveled routes such as Interstate 80, Highway 395 and Highway 50. These forecast products prepare motorists for harsh travel conditions as well as those venturing into the backcountry, which are essential to the NWS mission of saving lives and property. During the winter season, millions of people from around the world visit the numerous world class ski resorts in the Sierra and the Lake Tahoe Basin, which is vital to the local economy. This situation creates a challenging decision for the forecasters to provide appropriate wording in winter statements to keep the public safe, without significantly impacting the local tourism-based economy. Numerous text and graphical products, including online weather briefings, are utilized by NWS Reno to highlight hazards in ensuring the public, businesses, and other government agencies are prepared for winter storms and take appropriate safety measures. The effectiveness of these product types will be explored, with past snowstorms used as examples to show how forecasters determine which type of text or graphical product is most appropriate to convey the hazardous weather threats.

  19. Novel methodology for pharmaceutical expenditure forecast.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vataire, Anne-Lise; Cetinsoy, Laurent; Aballéa, Samuel; Rémuzat, Cécile; Urbinati, Duccio; Kornfeld, Åsa; Mzoughi, Olfa; Toumi, Mondher

    2014-01-01

    The value appreciation of new drugs across countries today features a disruption that is making the historical data that are used for forecasting pharmaceutical expenditure poorly reliable. Forecasting methods rarely addressed uncertainty. The objective of this project was to propose a methodology to perform pharmaceutical expenditure forecasting that integrates expected policy changes and uncertainty (developed for the European Commission as the 'EU Pharmaceutical expenditure forecast'; see http://ec.europa.eu/health/healthcare/key_documents/index_en.htm). 1) Identification of all pharmaceuticals going off-patent and new branded medicinal products over a 5-year forecasting period in seven European Union (EU) Member States. 2) Development of a model to estimate direct and indirect impacts (based on health policies and clinical experts) on savings of generics and biosimilars. Inputs were originator sales value, patent expiry date, time to launch after marketing authorization, price discount, penetration rate, time to peak sales, and impact on brand price. 3) Development of a model for new drugs, which estimated sales progression in a competitive environment. Clinical expected benefits as well as commercial potential were assessed for each product by clinical experts. Inputs were development phase, marketing authorization dates, orphan condition, market size, and competitors. 4) Separate analysis of the budget impact of products going off-patent and new drugs according to several perspectives, distribution chains, and outcomes. 5) Addressing uncertainty surrounding estimations via deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analysis. This methodology has proven to be effective by 1) identifying the main parameters impacting the variations in pharmaceutical expenditure forecasting across countries: generics discounts and penetration, brand price after patent loss, reimbursement rate, the penetration of biosimilars and discount price, distribution chains, and the time

  20. Operational hydrological forecasting in Bavaria. Part I: Forecast uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehret, U.; Vogelbacher, A.; Moritz, K.; Laurent, S.; Meyer, I.; Haag, I.

    2009-04-01

    In Bavaria, operational flood forecasting has been established since the disastrous flood of 1999. Nowadays, forecasts based on rainfall information from about 700 raingauges and 600 rivergauges are calculated and issued for nearly 100 rivergauges. With the added experience of the 2002 and 2005 floods, awareness grew that the standard deterministic forecast, neglecting the uncertainty associated with each forecast is misleading, creating a false feeling of unambiguousness. As a consequence, a system to identify, quantify and communicate the sources and magnitude of forecast uncertainty has been developed, which will be presented in part I of this study. In this system, the use of ensemble meteorological forecasts plays a key role which will be presented in part II. Developing the system, several constraints stemming from the range of hydrological regimes and operational requirements had to be met: Firstly, operational time constraints obviate the variation of all components of the modeling chain as would be done in a full Monte Carlo simulation. Therefore, an approach was chosen where only the most relevant sources of uncertainty were dynamically considered while the others were jointly accounted for by static error distributions from offline analysis. Secondly, the dominant sources of uncertainty vary over the wide range of forecasted catchments: In alpine headwater catchments, typically of a few hundred square kilometers in size, rainfall forecast uncertainty is the key factor for forecast uncertainty, with a magnitude dynamically changing with the prevailing predictability of the atmosphere. In lowland catchments encompassing several thousands of square kilometers, forecast uncertainty in the desired range (usually up to two days) is mainly dependent on upstream gauge observation quality, routing and unpredictable human impact such as reservoir operation. The determination of forecast uncertainty comprised the following steps: a) From comparison of gauge

  1. Bayesian flood forecasting methods: A review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Shasha; Coulibaly, Paulin

    2017-08-01

    Over the past few decades, floods have been seen as one of the most common and largely distributed natural disasters in the world. If floods could be accurately forecasted in advance, then their negative impacts could be greatly minimized. It is widely recognized that quantification and reduction of uncertainty associated with the hydrologic forecast is of great importance for flood estimation and rational decision making. Bayesian forecasting system (BFS) offers an ideal theoretic framework for uncertainty quantification that can be developed for probabilistic flood forecasting via any deterministic hydrologic model. It provides suitable theoretical structure, empirically validated models and reasonable analytic-numerical computation method, and can be developed into various Bayesian forecasting approaches. This paper presents a comprehensive review on Bayesian forecasting approaches applied in flood forecasting from 1999 till now. The review starts with an overview of fundamentals of BFS and recent advances in BFS, followed with BFS application in river stage forecasting and real-time flood forecasting, then move to a critical analysis by evaluating advantages and limitations of Bayesian forecasting methods and other predictive uncertainty assessment approaches in flood forecasting, and finally discusses the future research direction in Bayesian flood forecasting. Results show that the Bayesian flood forecasting approach is an effective and advanced way for flood estimation, it considers all sources of uncertainties and produces a predictive distribution of the river stage, river discharge or runoff, thus gives more accurate and reliable flood forecasts. Some emerging Bayesian forecasting methods (e.g. ensemble Bayesian forecasting system, Bayesian multi-model combination) were shown to overcome limitations of single model or fixed model weight and effectively reduce predictive uncertainty. In recent years, various Bayesian flood forecasting approaches have been

  2. The impact of nuclear waste disposals to the marine environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, P.J.

    1982-03-01

    This report provides a critical review of current scientific literature concerning the environmental impact of discharges and dumping of radioactive waste to the coastal marine and deep ocean environments. It concludes that although knowledge of the effects of dispersed radioactivity has greatly increased in the last two decades, there are still significant areas of uncertainty which have major implications for current and future nuclear waste management policy. For example, there is now evidence of discharged plutonium formerly thought to be locked on sediments returning to man via biogeochemical cycles. Discharges of this extremely toxic element have been banned elsewhere because of this eventuality, and the report recommends elimination of plutonium discharges, and in the light of recent radiobiological evidence, a fivefold reduction in exposures to the public as a result of the other Windscale discharges. In the case of ocean dumping, the report acknowledges that there is no evidence of health effects from past disposals. However, recent monitoring shows contamination of the ocean bed due to leaking containers, and it is argued that oceanographic and radioecological data are insufficient to predict future effects, especially having regard to the steadily increasing quantities dumped. (author)

  3. Pollution from tanneries effluents and its impact on environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rajput, A.A.; Memon, Hafeez-ur-Rahman; Sahto, M.H.

    1999-01-01

    The disposal of tanneries effluence has become one of the serious environmental problems. The effluents from tanneries contain highly toxic materials, including chromium salts, ammonium salts, acids, sodium sulphide and suspended solids. Hair, alkalinity, surfactants, dyes and oils are also present in these effluents. The extent of pollution depends upon the volume of the effluent discharged. Many studies have been carried out on the characteristics of these effluents in order to understand the nature of the effluents and their impact on environment. The present study shows measured values of different parameters like Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD) about 1950 mg/l, Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD) about 4500-4600 mg/l, suspended solids about 2600-2700 mg/l, dissolved solids 10000-12000 mg/l and lead, copper, chromium and cadmium about 2, 0.4, 64.4 and 0.31 mg/l respectively. The measured values are compared with that of previous. Some remedial measures for its treatment and disposal are also discussed. (author)

  4. Droplet Impact on a Heated Surface under a Depressurized Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatakenaka, Ryuta; Tagawa, Yoshiyuki

    2016-11-01

    Behavior of a water droplet of the diameter 1-3mm impacting on a heated surface under depressurized environment (100kPa -1kPa) has been studied. A syringe pump for droplet generation and a heated plate are set into a transparent acrylic vacuum chamber. The internal pressure of the chamber is automatically controlled at a target pressure with a rotary pump, a pressure transducer, and an electrical valve. A silicon wafer of the thickness 0.28 mm is mounted on the heater plate, whose temperature is directly measured by attaching a thermocouple on the backside. The droplet behavior is captured using a high-speed camera in a direction perpendicular to droplet velocity. Some unique behaviors of droplet are observed by decreasing the environmental pressure, which are considered to be due to two basic elements: Enhancement of evaporation due to the lowered saturation temperature, and shortage of pneumatic spring effect between the droplet and heated wall due to the lowered pressure of the air.

  5. Setting up an atmospheric-hydrologic model for seasonal forecasts of water flow into dams in a mountainous semi-arid environment (Cyprus)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camera, Corrado; Bruggeman, Adriana; Zittis, Georgios; Hadjinicolaou, Panos

    2017-04-01

    Due to limited rainfall concentrated in the winter months and long dry summers, storage and management of water resources is of paramount importance in Cyprus. For water storage purposes, the Cyprus Water Development Department is responsible for the operation of 56 large dams total volume of 310 Mm3) and 51 smaller reservoirs (total volume of 17 Mm3) over the island. Climate change is also expected to heavily affect Cyprus water resources with a 1.5%-12% decrease in mean annual rainfall (Camera et al., 2016) projected for the period 2020-2050, relative to 1980-2010. This will make reliable seasonal water inflow forecasts even more important for water managers. The overall aim of this study is to set-up the widely used Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with its hydrologic extension (WRF-hydro), for seasonal forecasts of water inflow in dams located in the Troodos Mountains of Cyprus. The specific objectives of this study are: i) the calibration and evaluation of WRF-Hydro for the simulation of stream flows, in the Troodos Mountains, for past rainfall seasons; ii) a sensitivity analysis of the model parameters; iii) a comparison of the application of the atmospheric-hydrologic modelling chain versus the use of climate observations as forcing. The hydrologic model is run in its off-line version with daily forcing over a 1-km grid, while the overland and channel routing is performed on a 100-m grid with a time-step of 6 seconds. Model outputs are exported on a daily base. First, WRF-Hydro is calibrated and validated over two 1-year periods (October-September), using a 1-km gridded observational precipitation dataset (Camera et al., 2014) as input. For the calibration and validation periods, years with annual rainfall close to the long-term average and with the presence of extreme rainfall and flow events were selected. A sensitivity analysis is performed, for the following parameters: partitioning of rainfall into runoff and infiltration (REFKDT), the

  6. Impact of soil moisture initialization on boreal summer subseasonal forecasts: mid-latitude surface air temperature and heat wave events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seo, Eunkyo; Lee, Myong-In; Jeong, Jee-Hoon; Koster, Randal D.; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Kim, Hye-Mi; Kim, Daehyun; Kang, Hyun-Suk; Kim, Hyun-Kyung; MacLachlan, Craig; Scaife, Adam A.

    2018-05-01

    This study uses a global land-atmosphere coupled model, the land-atmosphere component of the Global Seasonal Forecast System version 5, to quantify the degree to which soil moisture initialization could potentially enhance boreal summer surface air temperature forecast skill. Two sets of hindcast experiments are performed by prescribing the observed sea surface temperature as the boundary condition for a 15-year period (1996-2010). In one set of the hindcast experiments (noINIT), the initial soil moisture conditions are randomly taken from a long-term simulation. In the other set (INIT), the initial soil moisture conditions are taken from an observation-driven offline Land Surface Model (LSM) simulation. The soil moisture conditions from the offline LSM simulation are calibrated using the forecast model statistics to minimize the inconsistency between the LSM and the land-atmosphere coupled model in their mean and variability. Results show a higher boreal summer surface air temperature prediction skill in INIT than in noINIT, demonstrating the potential benefit from an accurate soil moisture initialization. The forecast skill enhancement appears especially in the areas in which the evaporative fraction—the ratio of surface latent heat flux to net surface incoming radiation—is sensitive to soil moisture amount. These areas lie in the transitional regime between humid and arid climates. Examination of the extreme 2003 European and 2010 Russian heat wave events reveal that the regionally anomalous soil moisture conditions during the events played an important role in maintaining the stationary circulation anomalies, especially those near the surface.

  7. The Quanzhou large earthquake: environment impact and deep process

    Science.gov (United States)

    WANG, Y.; Gao*, R.; Ye, Z.; Wang, C.

    2017-12-01

    The Quanzhou earthquake is the largest earthquake in China's southeast coast in history. The ancient city of Quanzhou and its adjacent areas suffered serious damage. Analysis of the impact of Quanzhou earthquake on human activities, ecological environment and social development will provide an example for the research on environment and human interaction.According to historical records, on the night of December 29, 1604, a Ms 8.0 earthquake occurred in the sea area at the east of Quanzhou (25.0°N, 119.5°E) with a focal depth of 25 kilometers. It affected to a maximum distance of 220 kilometers from the epicenter and caused serious damage. Quanzhou, which has been known as one of the world's largest trade ports during Song and Yuan periods was heavily destroyed by this earthquake. The destruction of the ancient city was very serious and widespread. The city wall collapsed in Putian, Nanan, Tongan and other places. The East and West Towers of Kaiyuan Temple, which are famous with magnificent architecture in history, were seriously destroyed.Therefore, an enormous earthquake can exert devastating effects on human activities and social development in the history. It is estimated that a more than Ms. 5.0 earthquake in the economically developed coastal areas in China can directly cause economic losses for more than one hundred million yuan. This devastating large earthquake that severely destroyed the Quanzhou city was triggered under a tectonic-extensional circumstance. In this coastal area of the Fujian Province, the crust gradually thins eastward from inland to coast (less than 29 km thick crust beneath the coast), the lithosphere is also rather thin (60 70 km), and the Poisson's ratio of the crust here appears relatively high. The historical Quanzhou Earthquake was probably correlated with the NE-striking Littoral Fault Zone, which is characterized by right-lateral slip and exhibiting the most active seismicity in the coastal area of Fujian. Meanwhile, tectonic

  8. Assessment of additional impacts to environment during Ukryttya object stabilization works

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klyuchnikov, A.A.; Shcherbin, V.N.; Rud'ko, V.M.; Batij, V.G.; Sizov, A.A.; Khavrus', V.G.

    2004-01-01

    Estimates of impact levels onto environment were made when implementing stabilization works of unstable building structures of Ukryttya object. The impact were evaluated to air water medium, as well to ground cover, social and technogenic environments. It was demonstrated, that impact levels to above environmental components under normal conditions of work implementation are negligible, and radioactive substance amount, which will penetrate into the environment, will make parts of percents to existing contamination of exclusion zone area. Estimates are also made of accident impacts onto environment, whose origination is probable during the stabilization works of Ukryttya object

  9. Forecasting the impact of global changes on the water resources of a mountainous catchment in the Chilean Andes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruelland, D.; Campéon, C.; Dezetter, A.; Jourde, H.

    2012-04-01

    This study aims to simulate the complex interrelationships between climate forcing, human pressure and dynamics of groundwater and surface water of the upper Elqui catchment (5 660 km2) in the Chilean Andes. The water resources of this mountainous, semi-arid catchment has been undergoing a growing pressure because of high climate variability and of the economic mutations of various sectors (agriculture, tourism), which have impacted water availability of the area. Due to the agriculture-based development in the region, water scarcity is thus a matter of great concern for this basin. Hydrological simulations were performed with a conceptual model that takes into account a shallow reservoir supplied by precipitation and feeding evapotranspiration, surface/sub-surface runoff and infiltration, and (ii) a deep reservoir fed by infiltration and generating the baseflow. A third reservoir, in which fluxes are controlled by temperature, has been introduced to account for the snowmelt regime of the catchment. A 30-year period (1979-2008) was chosen to capture long-term hydro-climatic variability due to alternating ENSO and LNSO events. Then water uses (dam functioning, agricultural and domestic withdrawals) were integrated into the model. The model was calibrated and validated with streamflow data on the basis of a multi-objective function that aggregates a variety of goodness-of-fit criteria. Prospective climatic and anthropogenic scenarios were finally elaborated and forced into the model in order to propose midterm (2050 horizon) simulations. The model correctly reproduces the observed discharge at the basin outlet. Depending on the modelling complexity, NSE coefficients are about 0.82-0.90 over the calibration period (1979-1990) and 0.78-0.84 over the validation period (1991-2008). The volume error between observation and simulation is lower than 15% over the whole period studied. The dynamics of both the water level in the deep conceptual reservoir and the water table

  10. Infrastructure Improvements for Snowmelt Runoff Forecasting and Assessments of Climate Change Impacts on Water Supplies in the Rio Grande Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rango, A.; Steele, C. M.; Demouche, L.

    2009-12-01

    In the Southwest US, the southern Rocky Mountains provide a significant orographic barrier to prevailing moisture-laden Westerly winds, which results in snow accumulation and melt, both vitally important to the region’s water resources. The inherent variability of meteorological conditions in the Southwest, during both snowpack buildup and depletion, requires improved spatially-distributed data. The population of ground-based networks (SNOTEL, SCAN, and weather stations) is sparse and does not satisfactorily represent the variability of snow accumulation and melt. Remote sensing can be used to supplement data from ground networks, but the most frequently available remotely sensed product with the highest temporal and spatial resolution, namely snow cover, only provides areal data and not snow volume. Fortunately, the Snowmelt Runoff Model(SRM), which was developed in mountainous regions of the world, including the Rio Grande basin, accepts snow covered area as one of its major input variables along with temperature and precipitation. With the growing awareness of atmospheric warming and the southerly location of Southwest watersheds, it has become apparent that the effects of climate change will be especially important for Southwestern water users. The NSF-funded EPSCoR project “Climate Change Impacts on New Mexico’s Mountain Sources of Water” (started in 2009) has focused on improving hydrometeorological measurements, developing basin-wide and sub-basin snow cover mapping methods, generating snowmelt runoff simulations, forecasts, and long-term climate change assessments, and informing the public of the results through outreach and educational activities. Five new SNOTEL and four new SCAN sites are being installed in 2009-2010 and 12 existing basic SNOTEL sites are being upgraded. In addition, 30 automated precipitation gages are being added to New Mexico measurement networks. The first phase of snow mapping and modeling has focused on four sub basins

  11. Impact of Multitasking on Listening Effectiveness in the Learning Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alla Kushniryk

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available This experimental study evaluated the impact of multitasking and social presence on students’ performances in the learning environment. In the first live-presenter group, the participants listened to a lecture in a face-to-face environment. In the second virtual-presenter group, the participants listened on their computers to a pre-recorded lecture. The participants of these groups listened to a lecture and simultaneously wrote responses to open-ended online survey questions. While the participants of the first two groups were multitasking, those in the third group completed listening and writing tasks sequentially. It was found that multitasking significantly decreased performances on both the listening and writing tasks. The experiment also uncovered that the degree of social presence did not affect students’ performances on the listening or writing tasks in the learning environment. The perceived degree of social presence was the same in the virtual- and live-presenter groups.La présente étude expérimentale évalue les conséquences de la multiplicité des tâches et de la présence sociale sur la performance des étudiants dans l’environnement d’apprentissage. Le premier groupe a assisté à une cours donnée par un conférencier sur place. Le deuxième groupe a écouté le cours préenregistrée à partir d’un ordinateur. Les participants de ces deux groupes ont répondu simultanément en ligne aux questions ouvertes d’un sondage. Alors que les participants des deux premiers groupes ont effectué des tâches multiples simultanément, ceux du troisième groupe ont d’abord écouté puis ont répondu au sondage de façon séquentielle. Les chercheurs ont découvert que le fait de réaliser des tâches multiples entraînent une baisse importante de la performance en ce qui a trait à l’écoute et à la rédaction des réponses. L’expérience a aussi permis de découvrir que la présence en classe n’influe pas sur la

  12. Value of Forecaster in the Loop

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-09-01

    forecast system IFR instrument flight rules IMC instrument meteorological conditions LAMP Localized Aviation Model Output Statistics Program METOC...obtaining valuable experience. Additional factors have impacted the Navy weather forecast process. There has been a the realignment of the meteorology...forecasts that are assessed, it may be a relatively small number that have direct impact on the decision-making process. Whether the value is minimal or

  13. Techniques for inventorying manmade impacts in roadway environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dale R. Potter; J. Alan. Wagar

    1971-01-01

    Four techniques for inventorying manmade impacts along roadway corridors were devised and compared. Ground surveillance and ground photography techniques recorded impacts within the corridor visible from the road. Techniques on large- and small-scale aerial photography recorded impacts within a more complete corridor that included areas screened from the road by...

  14. Contribution to forecast of environmental impact, in the long run, for fuel cells of low and average temperature using the Delphi methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ribeiro, Maria Alice Morato; Oliveira, Wagner dos Santos

    2007-01-01

    Assessing future energy systems is of major importance for providing information on potential environmental awareness of some life cycle stages of innovative technologies, for determining competitive advantages compared to conventional technologies and for developing scenarios of future. Today, intense activity of R and D in cells is verified in fuel cells, practiced in centers of research, university, and laboratories of great companies, what it seems to indicate the use in wide scale of these generating right-handers of energy, before long. The work has a main objective, in the long run, to make a forecast of the environmental impact of low and average temperature fuel cells, analyzing all the stages of their useful life and final disposal of the materials that constitute them, using the Delphi methodology. The results of the environmental impact evaluation of the main materials used in the stacks are presented, considering their manufacture, operation and final disposal after their useful life ends. (author)

  15. Trace elements in agroecosystems and impacts on the environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Zhenli L; Yang, Xiaoe E; Stoffella, Peter J

    2005-01-01

    Trace elements mean elements present at low concentrations (mg kg-1 or less) in agroecosystems. Some trace elements, including copper (Cu), zinc (Zn), manganese (Mn), iron (Fe), molybdenum (Mo), and boron (B) are essential to plant growth and are called micronutrients. Except for B, these elements are also heavy metals, and are toxic to plants at high concentrations. Some trace elements, such as cobalt (Co) and selenium (Se), are not essential to plant growth but are required by animals and human beings. Other trace elements such as cadmium (Cd), lead (Pb), chromium (Cr), nickel (Ni), mercury (Hg), and arsenic (As) have toxic effects on living organisms and are often considered as contaminants. Trace elements in an agroecosystem are either inherited from soil parent materials or inputs through human activities. Soil contamination with heavy metals and toxic elements due to parent materials or point sources often occurs in a limited area and is easy to identify. Repeated use of metal-enriched chemicals, fertilizers, and organic amendments such as sewage sludge as well as wastewater may cause contamination at a large scale. A good example is the increased concentration of Cu and Zn in soils under long-term production of citrus and other fruit crops. Many chemical processes are involved in the transformation of trace elements in soils, but precipitation-dissolution, adsorption-desorption, and complexation are the most important processes controlling bioavailability and mobility of trace elements in soils. Both deficiency and toxicity of trace elements occur in agroecosystems. Application of trace elements in fertilizers is effective in correcting micronutrient deficiencies for crop production, whereas remediation of soils contaminated with metals is still costly and difficult although phytoremediation appears promising as a cost-effective approach. Soil microorganisms are the first living organisms subjected to the impacts of metal contamination. Being responsive and

  16. The Impact of Multitasking Learning Environments in the Middle Grades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drinkwine, Timothy

    2013-01-01

    This research study considers the status of middle school students in the 21st century in terms of their tendency to multitask in their daily lives and the overall influence this multitasking has on teaching and learning environments. Student engagement in the learning environment and students' various learning styles are discussed as primary…

  17. Impact of the learning environment on career intentions of paediatric ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    training on career intentions, specifically in terms of paediatrics, in a ... SA paediatric interns work in an environment with a high ... already challenging learning environment (LE) for interns. ... doctors during internship may influence career trajectories in a direction that is discordant with .... Cronbach's alpha for the teaching,.

  18. Impact assessment of emission management strategies of the pharmaceuticals Metformin and Metoprolol to the aquatic environment using Bayesian networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brandmayr, Caterina; Kerber, Heide; Winker, Martina; Schramm, Engelbert

    2015-11-01

    The issue of pharmaceuticals in the environment has caused increasing concern in the recent years and various strategies have been proposed to tackle this problem. This work describes a Bayesian network (BN)-based socio-ecological impact assessment of a set of measures aimed at reducing the entry of pharmaceuticals in the aquatic environment. The measures investigated were selected across three sectors: public health market, environmental politics and drug design innovation. The BN model was developed for two drugs, Metformin and Metoprolol, and it models the distribution of the Predicted Environmental Concentration (PEC) values as a function of different measures. Results show that the sensitivity of the PEC for the two drugs to the measures investigated reflects the distinct drug characteristics, suggesting that in order to ensure the successful reduction of a broad range of substances, a spectrum of measures targeting the entire lifecycle of a pharmaceutical should be implemented. Furthermore, evaluation of two scenarios reflecting different emission management strategies highlights that the integrated implementation of a comprehensive set of measures across the three sectors results in a more extensive reduction of the contamination. Finally, the BN provides an initial forecasting tool to model the PEC of a drug as a function of a combination of measures in a context-specific manner and possible adaptations of the model are proposed. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. Road transportation impact on Ghana's future energy and environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Faah, George

    2008-11-07

    This research work explored the environmental and socio-economic benefits derived, if some proportion of daily passenger trips made using private cars in Ghana could be shifted to the use of public transport. The research applied the computer software COPERT III in estimating road transport Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and fuel consumption in Ghana for the base year 2005 and forecast years 2010 and 2020. The research reveals that if no major change occur in policies or economic determinants in meeting road transport and energy in Ghana, then the 2005 total emissions value is expected to rise by 36% in 2010 and over double in 2020 i.e. from 4.6 to 6.25 in 2010 and to 9.77 Mt CO{sub 2}e in 2020. However, if just 10% of daily passenger trips using private cars can be shifted towards the use of public transport, then the end results in reduction in emissions could earn Ghana about USD 6.6million/year under the Kyoto Protocol CDM initiative. The research also demonstrated that with a further 10% daily passenger trip shift, the outcome could be more promising, increasing to USD 13million/year. (orig.)

  20. Is the economic value of hydrological forecasts related to their quality? Case study of the hydropower sector.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassagnole, Manon; Ramos, Maria-Helena; Thirel, Guillaume; Gailhard, Joël; Garçon, Rémy

    2017-04-01

    The improvement of a forecasting system and the evaluation of the quality of its forecasts are recurrent steps in operational practice. However, the evaluation of forecast value or forecast usefulness for better decision-making is, to our knowledge, less frequent, even if it might be essential in many sectors such as hydropower and flood warning. In the hydropower sector, forecast value can be quantified by the economic gain obtained with the optimization of operations or reservoir management rules. Several hydropower operational systems use medium-range forecasts (up to 7-10 days ahead) and energy price predictions to optimize hydropower production. Hence, the operation of hydropower systems, including the management of water in reservoirs, is impacted by weather, climate and hydrologic variability as well as extreme events. In order to assess how the quality of hydrometeorological forecasts impact operations, it is essential to first understand if and how operations and management rules are sensitive to input predictions of different quality. This study investigates how 7-day ahead deterministic and ensemble streamflow forecasts of different quality might impact the economic gains of energy production. It is based on a research model developed by Irstea and EDF to investigate issues relevant to the links between quality and value of forecasts in the optimisation of energy production at the short range. Based on streamflow forecasts and pre-defined management constraints, the model defines the best hours (i.e., the hours with high energy prices) to produce electricity. To highlight the link between forecasts quality and their economic value, we built several synthetic ensemble forecasts based on observed streamflow time series. These inputs are generated in a controlled environment in order to obtain forecasts of different quality in terms of accuracy and reliability. These forecasts are used to assess the sensitivity of the decision model to forecast quality

  1. Wave forecasting in near real time basis by neural network

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Rao, S.; Mandal, S.; Prabaharan, N.

    ., forecasting of waves become an important aspect of marine environment. This paper presents application of the neural network (NN) with better update algorithms, namely rprop, quickprop and superSAB for wave forecasting. Measured waves off Marmagoa, Goa, India...

  2. Impact fretting wear in CO2-based environments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levy, G.; Morri, J.

    1985-01-01

    An impact wear model, based on the load-sliding distance proportionality of wear and the mechanical response of the impacting bodies, was derived and tested against experiment. The experimental work was carried out on a twin vibrator rig capable of repetitive impact of a moving specimen against a stationary target material. The impact wear characteristics of three materials (mild steel, 9Cr-1Mo steel and austenitic 316 steel) against 310 stainless steel were examined over a range of temperatures (18-600 0 C). Additionally the effects of variations in the mechanical parameters (incident energy, ξ i , number N of impacts and angle of incidence φ) as a function of temperature were evaluated for mild steel only. The model was verified for impacting within a stable wear regime at 100 0 C for 9Cr-1Mo steel. The emergence of a severe-to-mild wear transition at elevated temperatures (200-400 0 C), however, introduced an energy and a 'numbers of cycles' effect that caused apparent deviations from theory. It was concluded that for stable single-mechanism wear regimes (metallic, oxidative etc.) oblique elastic impacts with a gross slip component were accurately described by the proposed impact wear model. (orig.)

  3. Surface Pressure Dependencies in the GEOS-Chem-Adjoint System and the Impact of the GEOS-5 Surface Pressure on CO2 Model Forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Meemong; Weidner, Richard

    2016-01-01

    In the GEOS-Chem Adjoint (GCA) system, the total (wet) surface pressure of the GEOS meteorology is employed as dry surface pressure, ignoring the presence of water vapor. The Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) research team has been evaluating the impact of the above discrepancy on the CO2 model forecast and the CO2 flux inversion. The JPL CMS research utilizes a multi-mission assimilation framework developed by the Multi-Mission Observation Operator (M2O2) research team at JPL extending the GCA system. The GCA-M2O2 framework facilitates mission-generic 3D and 4D-variational assimilations streamlining the interfaces to the satellite data products and prior emission inventories. The GCA-M2O2 framework currently integrates the GCA system version 35h and provides a dry surface pressure setup to allow the CO2 model forecast to be performed with the GEOS-5 surface pressure directly or after converting it to dry surface pressure.

  4. The impact of business environment changes on recent costing techniques

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    林慧涓

    2011-01-01

    1.Introduction The acceleration of globalization and the prosperity of information technology benefit business a great deal.But with the speeding up of economic development,firms are facing more and more pressure from various aspects of their business.The heated debate is on about whether traditional management accounting practices and techniques are irrelevant to the current business environment and this essay will explore the causes for using some traditional management accounting practices and techniques in the current business environment are inappropriate and put forward some contemporary management accounting techniques which is relevant to the current business environment.Thus,the essay will be divided into three sections to discuss the traditional management accounting practices and techniques and contemporary management accounting techniques in current business environment.

  5. Nuclear energy in France: assessing its impacts on the economy and the environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Charmant, A.; Devezeaux de Lavergne, J.G.; Ladoux, N.; Vielle, M.

    1994-12-31

    As environmental matters become the focus of increasing concern, the implementation of major nuclear power programme has allowed France to enjoy the benefits of a comfortable position. Emissions of carbon dioxide per head in France are among the lowest in the industrialized world. On a worldwide level, Atomic Energy Commission forecasts have shown that the impact of the resumption of nuclear power programmes on the greenhouse effect would be limited. Nuclear power might have a useful role to play in the achievement of a more realistic reduction of these emissions.

  6. Nuclear energy in France: assessing its impacts on the economy and the environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Charmant, A.; Devezeaux de Lavergne, J.G.; Ladoux, N.; Vielle, M.

    1994-01-01

    As environmental matters become the focus of increasing concern, the implementation of major nuclear power programme has allowed France to enjoy the benefits of a comfortable position. Emissions of carbon dioxide per head in France are among the lowest in the industrialized world. On a worldwide level, Atomic Energy Commission forecasts have shown that the impact of the resumption of nuclear power programmes on the greenhouse effect would be limited. Nuclear power might have a useful role to play in the achievement of a more realistic reduction of these emissions

  7. General impact of robotics and automation in radiation environments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meghdari, A.; Salehi, M.

    1993-01-01

    Robotics and automation systems in nuclear environments require special design considerations. This paper presents an overview of selected robotic systems already designed and developed for use in nuclear applications at some U.S. laboratories. It will further emphasize on tasks identification, operational constraints, special considerations in materials selection, and a general guideline for robotic systems design in radiation environments. (author). 5 refs, 5 figs

  8. Hierarchical biodiversity and environment impact assessment of South-to-North Water Diversion Project of China

    OpenAIRE

    Youhua Chen

    2013-01-01

    In this brief review, the potential environmental and biodiversity impact of South-to-North Water Diversion (SNWD) project in China on regional environments was assessed. I used the hierarchical environmental impact assessment to classify the possible impacts into three orders caused by the construction of SNWD and then presented the current research advances on each order of the impacts. Further impact assessments should be reinforced during the construction period of SNDW project for the su...

  9. Forecasting military expenditure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tobias Böhmelt

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available To what extent do frequently cited determinants of military spending allow us to predict and forecast future levels of expenditure? The authors draw on the data and specifications of a recent model on military expenditure and assess the predictive power of its variables using in-sample predictions, out-of-sample forecasts and Bayesian model averaging. To this end, this paper provides guidelines for prediction exercises in general using these three techniques. More substantially, however, the findings emphasize that previous levels of military spending as well as a country’s institutional and economic characteristics particularly improve our ability to predict future levels of investment in the military. Variables pertaining to the international security environment also matter, but seem less important. In addition, the results highlight that the updated model, which drops weak predictors, is not only more parsimonious, but also slightly more accurate than the original specification.

  10. Physical Environment Comfort Impacts on Office Employee’s Performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chua Shirley Jin Lin

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Office workplaces today is now no longer only consisting of passive and fixed activity but also towards a more flexible environment activity. The number of office workplaces is hiking from day to day which leads to the increase of the office workers. The productivity will be improved by providing optimum physical environment. The physical environment comfort in a workplace is claimed to be vital as it will encourages healthier, more productive and lower absenteeism rate among employees. The physical environment comfort encompassed optimum room temperature, relative humidity and illuminance level. This research intend to investigate the importance of physical environment comfort by evaluating the comfort based on the existing workplace and determine its effect on employee’s performance. Evaluation between the selected case studies are made in the aspects of employee’s comfort perceive health and absenteeism rate by wielding the elements of physical comfort consisting room temperature, relative humidity and illuminance level. Field study was carried out for 3 institutional building particularly management department. High correlations are found between room temperature, lighting and relative humidity with health related issue such as stuffy, easily tired and difficulty in concentration which affect employees’ productivity and work performances.

  11. Atmospheric Motion Vectors from INSAT-3D: Initial quality assessment and its impact on track forecast of cyclonic storm NANAUK

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deb, S. K.; Kishtawal, C. M.; Kumar, Prashant; Kiran Kumar, A. S.; Pal, P. K.; Kaushik, Nitesh; Sangar, Ghansham

    2016-03-01

    The advanced Indian meteorological geostationary satellite INSAT-3D was launched on 26 July 2013 with an improved imager and an infrared sounder and is placed at 82°E over the Indian Ocean region. With the advancement in retrieval techniques of different atmospheric parameters and with improved imager data have enhanced the scope for better understanding of the different tropical atmospheric processes over this region. The retrieval techniques and accuracy of one such parameter, Atmospheric Motion Vectors (AMV) has improved significantly with the availability of improved spatial resolution data along with more options of spectral channels in the INSAT-3D imager. The present work is mainly focused on providing brief descriptions of INSAT-3D data and AMV derivation processes using these data. It also discussed the initial quality assessment of INSAT-3D AMVs for a period of six months starting from 01 February 2014 to 31 July 2014 with other independent observations: i) Meteosat-7 AMVs available over this region, ii) in-situ radiosonde wind measurements, iii) cloud tracked winds from Multi-angle Imaging Spectro-Radiometer (MISR) and iv) numerical model analysis. It is observed from this study that the qualities of newly derived INSAT-3D AMVs are comparable with existing two versions of Meteosat-7 AMVs over this region. To demonstrate its initial application, INSAT-3D AMVs are assimilated in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and it is found that the assimilation of newly derived AMVs has helped in reduction of track forecast errors of the recent cyclonic storm NANAUK over the Arabian Sea. Though, the present study is limited to its application to one case study, however, it will provide some guidance to the operational agencies for implementation of this new AMV dataset for future applications in the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) over the south Asia region.

  12. Combined use of weather forecasting and satellite remote sensing information for fire risk, fire and fire impact monitoring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wolfgang Knorr

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available The restoration of fire-affected forest areas needs to be combined with their future protection from renewed catastrophic fires, such as those that occurred in Greece during the 2007 summer season. The present work demonstrates that the use of various sources of satellite data in conjunction with weather forecast information is capable of providing valuable information for the characterization of fire danger with the purpose of protecting the Greek national forest areas. This study shows that favourable meteorological conditions have contributed to the fire outbreak during the days of the unusually damaging fires in Peloponnese as well as Euboia (modern Greek: Evia at the end of August 2007. During those days, Greece was located between an extended high pressure system in Central Europe and a low pressure system in the Middle East. Their combination resulted in strong north-northeasterly winds in the Aegean Sea. As a consequence, strong winds were also observed in the regions of Evia and Peloponnese, especially in mountainous areas. The analysis of satellite images showing smoke emitted from the fires corroborates the results from the weather forecasts. A further analysis using the Fraction of Absorbed Photosyntetically Active Radiation (FAPAR as an indicator of active vegetation shows the extent of the destruction caused by the fire. The position of the burned areas coincides with that of the active fires detected in the earlier satellite image. Using the annual maximum FAPAR as an indicator of regional vegetation density, it was found that only regions with relatively high FAPAR were burned.

  13. The impact of urban background on appreciation of natural environments

    OpenAIRE

    Mirza, Leila; Linzey, Michael; Byrd, Hugh; Dodd, George

    2012-01-01

    For the first time in human history, more than half of the world's population live in towns and cities. The acceleration of habitat alteration as well as modern lifestyles dramatically reduce the interaction with natural environments. To get an overview of this issue, a comparison was made between individuals who lived most of their childhoods in high-rise blocks and who experienced nature on a daily basis from living and playing in suburbia or a rural environment. Can a lack of contact with ...

  14. Impact of nuclear power station on environment and population

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bhide, M.G.

    1991-01-01

    Thermal pollution due to dumping of waste heat in the environment is the direct effect of the fossil-fuel power plants as well as of the nuclear power plants. The indirect effect is the industrial pollution caused by the growth of industries in the surrounding areas. Fossil-fuel power plants cause environmental pollution due to emission of smoke, oxides of sulfur and nitrogen, and carbon dioxide which cause greenhouse effect. Radioactivity generated in nuclear power plants is strictly contained, however in case of accidents it gets released to the environment. (R.G.). 3 refs., 1 appendix

  15. The impact of the economic environment on financial reports

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valentin Burcă

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Financial reporting represents a current issue of economic environment, given globalization and the recent economic crisis. Accounting -as profession - along with the investors and state institutions have started a comprehensive project of accounting convergence designed to improve the comparability of accounting information released by financial statements synthesis. The success of the project can only be provided by taking into account several constraints imposed by the economic environment, and not only. Therefore, attention must be paid to the voice of capital markets and large multinational corporations regarding the future development of financial reporting.

  16. Coupling the Canadian Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (CTEM v. 2.0 to Environment and Climate Change Canada's greenhouse gas forecast model (v.107-glb

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Badawy

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The Canadian Land Surface Scheme and the Canadian Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (CLASS-CTEM together form the land surface component in the family of Canadian Earth system models (CanESMs. Here, CLASS-CTEM is coupled to Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC's weather and greenhouse gas forecast model (GEM-MACH-GHG to consistently model atmosphere–land exchange of CO2. The coupling between the land and the atmospheric transport model ensures consistency between meteorological forcing of CO2 fluxes and CO2 transport. The procedure used to spin up carbon pools for CLASS-CTEM for multi-decadal simulations needed to be significantly altered to deal with the limited availability of consistent meteorological information from a constantly changing operational environment in the GEM-MACH-GHG model. Despite the limitations in the spin-up procedure, the simulated fluxes obtained by driving the CLASS-CTEM model with meteorological forcing from GEM-MACH-GHG were comparable to those obtained from CLASS-CTEM when it is driven with standard meteorological forcing from the Climate Research Unit (CRU combined with reanalysis fields from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP to form CRU-NCEP dataset. This is due to the similarity of the two meteorological datasets in terms of temperature and radiation. However, notable discrepancies in the seasonal variation and spatial patterns of precipitation estimates, especially in the tropics, were reflected in the estimated carbon fluxes, as they significantly affected the magnitude of the vegetation productivity and, to a lesser extent, the seasonal variations in carbon fluxes. Nevertheless, the simulated fluxes based on the meteorological forcing from the GEM-MACH-GHG model are consistent to some extent with other estimates from bottom-up or top-down approaches. Indeed, when simulated fluxes obtained by driving the CLASS-CTEM model with meteorological data from the GEM-MACH-GHG model are used as

  17. Coupling the Canadian Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (CTEM v. 2.0) to Environment and Climate Change Canada's greenhouse gas forecast model (v.107-glb)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badawy, Bakr; Polavarapu, Saroja; Jones, Dylan B. A.; Deng, Feng; Neish, Michael; Melton, Joe R.; Nassar, Ray; Arora, Vivek K.

    2018-02-01

    The Canadian Land Surface Scheme and the Canadian Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (CLASS-CTEM) together form the land surface component in the family of Canadian Earth system models (CanESMs). Here, CLASS-CTEM is coupled to Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC)'s weather and greenhouse gas forecast model (GEM-MACH-GHG) to consistently model atmosphere-land exchange of CO2. The coupling between the land and the atmospheric transport model ensures consistency between meteorological forcing of CO2 fluxes and CO2 transport. The procedure used to spin up carbon pools for CLASS-CTEM for multi-decadal simulations needed to be significantly altered to deal with the limited availability of consistent meteorological information from a constantly changing operational environment in the GEM-MACH-GHG model. Despite the limitations in the spin-up procedure, the simulated fluxes obtained by driving the CLASS-CTEM model with meteorological forcing from GEM-MACH-GHG were comparable to those obtained from CLASS-CTEM when it is driven with standard meteorological forcing from the Climate Research Unit (CRU) combined with reanalysis fields from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) to form CRU-NCEP dataset. This is due to the similarity of the two meteorological datasets in terms of temperature and radiation. However, notable discrepancies in the seasonal variation and spatial patterns of precipitation estimates, especially in the tropics, were reflected in the estimated carbon fluxes, as they significantly affected the magnitude of the vegetation productivity and, to a lesser extent, the seasonal variations in carbon fluxes. Nevertheless, the simulated fluxes based on the meteorological forcing from the GEM-MACH-GHG model are consistent to some extent with other estimates from bottom-up or top-down approaches. Indeed, when simulated fluxes obtained by driving the CLASS-CTEM model with meteorological data from the GEM-MACH-GHG model are used as prior estimates

  18. [Assessing the impact of the environment on human health].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Locatelli, Marine

    2016-05-01

    In public health, nurses are concerned with the global health of populations. A recently qualified nurse, interested in this area of health, enhanced her skills with a master's degree specialising in the links between the environment and health. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  19. kosh Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. kttd Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. pmdy Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. kont Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. kyng Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. kcwa Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. kflg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. krsw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. kmyl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. krbg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. kril Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. ksus Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. padq Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. kbil Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. krfd Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. kdug Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. ktix Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. kcod Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. kslk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. kgfl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. kguc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. kmlu Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. kbff Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. ksmn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. kdro Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. kmce Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. ktpa Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. kmot Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. kcre Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. klws Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. kotm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. khqm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. kabr Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. klal Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. kelp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. kecg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. khbg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. kpbf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. konp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. pkwa Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. ktvf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. paga Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. khks Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. kdsm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. kpsm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. kgrb Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. kgmu Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. papg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. kbgm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. pamc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. klrd Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. ksan Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. patk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. kowb Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. klru Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. kfxe Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. kjct Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. kcrg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. paaq Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. kaex Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. klbx Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. kmia Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. kpit Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. kcrw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. paen Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. kast Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. kuin Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. kmht Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. kcys Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. kflo Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. pakn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. pabt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. krdg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. khdn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. kjac Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. kphx Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. Environment, Health and Climate: Impact of African aerosols

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liousse, C.; Doumbia, T.; Assamoi, E.; Galy-Lacaux, C.; Baeza, A.; Penner, J. E.; Val, S.; Cachier, H.; Xu, L.; Criqui, P.

    2012-12-01

    Fossil fuel and biofuel emissions of particles in Africa are expected to significantly increase in the near future, particularly due to rapid growth of African cities. In addition to biomass burning emissions prevailing in these areas, air quality degradation is then expected with important consequences on population health and climatic/radiative impact. In our group, we are constructing a new integrated methodology to study the relations between emissions, air quality and their impacts. This approach includes: (1) African combustion emission characterizations; (2) joint experimental determination of aerosol chemistry from ultrafine to coarse fractions and health issues (toxicology and epidemiology). (3) integrated environmental, health and radiative modeling. In this work, we show some results illustrating our first estimates of African anthropogenic emission impacts: - a new African anthropogenic emission inventory adapted to regional specificities on traffic, biofuel and industrial emissions has been constructed for the years 2005 and 2030. Biomass burning inventories were also improved in the frame of AMMA (African Monsoon) program. - carbonaceous aerosol radiative impact in Africa has been modeled with TM5 model and Penner et al. (2011) radiative code for these inventories for 2005 and 2030 and for two scenarios of emissions : a reference scenario, with no further emission controls beyond those achieved in 2003 and a ccc* scenario including planned policies in Kyoto protocol and regulations as applied to African emission specificities. In this study we will show that enhanced heating is expected with the ccc* scenarios emissions in which the OC fraction is relatively lower than in the reference scenario. - results of short term POLCA intensive campaigns in Bamako and Dakar in terms of aerosol chemical characterization linked to specific emissions sources and their inflammatory impacts on the respiratory tract through in vitro studies. In this study, organic

  18. Robust forecast comparison

    OpenAIRE

    Jin, Sainan; Corradi, Valentina; Swanson, Norman

    2015-01-01

    Forecast accuracy is typically measured in terms of a given loss function. However, as a consequence of the use of misspecified models in multiple model comparisons, relative forecast rankings are loss function dependent. This paper addresses this issue by using a novel criterion for forecast evaluation which is based on the entire distribution of forecast errors. We introduce the concepts of general-loss (GL) forecast superiority and convex-loss (CL) forecast superiority, and we establish a ...

  19. Measuring Research Impact in an Open Access Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frank Scholze

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper focuses on electronic publication impact as a limited, but rather well defined sub-field of research impact. With Open Access, a much bigger corpus of data has become available for statistical analysis. Publication impact can be measured by author- or reader-generated data. Author-generated data would be citations. Reader-generated data would be usage. Usage data can be collected through webserver or linkresolver logs. It has to be normalized in order to be shared and analysed meaningfully. The paper presents current initiatives and projects aiming to provide a suitable infrastructure, including publisher data (COUNTER/SUSHI and data collected from Open Access repositories (using OAI-PMH and OpenURL ContextObjects. Citation and usage data can be analyzed quantitatively or structurally. These new metrics can enhance or complement existing metrics like the Journal Impact Factor (JIF. Services like decision support systems for collection management or recommender systems can also be built on this metrics.

  20. The Impact of Blatant Pay Disclosure in a University Environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manning, Michael R.; Avolio, Bruce J.

    1985-01-01

    University employees' reactions to the publication of their salaries in a local campus newspaper are described. Correlational analyses indicated associations between impact of the disclosure and salary level, salary equity/satisfaction, instrumentality of performance-reward outcomes, internal salary attributions, and salary discussion. (Author/MLW)

  1. Resources and Long-Range Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Waldo E.

    1973-01-01

    The author argues that forecasts of quick depletion of resources in the environment as a result of overpopulation and increased usage may not be free from error. Ignorance still exists in understanding the recovery mechanisms of nature. Long-range forecasts are likely to be wrong in such situations. (PS)

  2. Evolving impact of Ada on a production software environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mcgarry, F.; Esker, L.; Quimby, K.

    1988-01-01

    Many aspects of software development with Ada have evolved as our Ada development environment has matured and personnel have become more experienced in the use of Ada. The Software Engineering Laboratory (SEL) has seen differences in the areas of cost, reliability, reuse, size, and use of Ada features. A first Ada project can be expected to cost about 30 percent more than an equivalent FORTRAN project. However, the SEL has observed significant improvements over time as a development environment progresses to second and third uses of Ada. The reliability of Ada projects is initially similar to what is expected in a mature FORTRAN environment. However, with time, one can expect to gain improvements as experience with the language increases. Reuse is one of the most promising aspects of Ada. The proportion of reusable Ada software on our Ada projects exceeds the proportion of reusable FORTRAN software on our FORTRAN projects. This result was noted fairly early in our Ada projects, and experience shows an increasing trend over time.

  3. Impact of Modificated Asphalt Mixtures on Paving Functioning and Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gediminas Gribulis

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Atmospheric pollution began to increase in the beginning of 19th century, when the global economy and industrial development started the signal grow. The current problem of global warming is partly related with emission of carbon dioxide (CO2 to environment, which one of the sources are industrial production companies. Warm asphalt mix is usually used in the practice of Lithuania and the world for equipment of road paving. These mixes are produced in specialized asphalt mixers where stone dosing, drying and its mixing with bituminous binders are performed. The temperature of produced hot asphalt mix in mixer reach 150–180 °C and 120–160 °C of mixture laying on the road. Various pollutants, carbon dioxide, formaldehydes, and other are spread to the environment. The carried out researches in Lithuania and the world have showed that while using special additives it is possible to reduce the temperatures of warm asphalt production and laying on the road. Such reduction of temperature helps not to worsen the quality of asphalt layer, to lower the emission of pollutants to environment, to improve the conditions of road workers and to economically use the gas for production of asphalt mixes. Production technologies of different asphalt mixes, their advantages and disadvantages, and results of laboratory tests are analyzed in this article. Equipment samples of experimental road sections, using the warm mixing asphalt mixtures are given.

  4. Forecaster Behaviour and Bias in Macroeconomic Forecasts

    OpenAIRE

    Roy Batchelor

    2007-01-01

    This paper documents the presence of systematic bias in the real GDP and inflation forecasts of private sector forecasters in the G7 economies in the years 1990–2005. The data come from the monthly Consensus Economics forecasting service, and bias is measured and tested for significance using parametric fixed effect panel regressions and nonparametric tests on accuracy ranks. We examine patterns across countries and forecasters to establish whether the bias reflects the inefficient use of i...

  5. Low-wave number analysis of observations and ensemble forecasts to develop metrics for the selection of most realistic members to study multi-scale interactions between the environment and the convective organization of hurricanes: Focus on Rapid Intensification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hristova-Veleva, S. M.; Chen, H.; Gopalakrishnan, S.; Haddad, Z. S.

    2017-12-01

    Tropical cyclones (TCs) are the product of complex multi-scale processes and interactions. The role of the environment has long been recognized. However, recent research has shown that convective-scale processes in the hurricane core might also play a crucial role in determining TCs intensity and size. Several studies have linked Rapid Intensification to the characteristics of the convective clouds (shallow versus deep), their organization (isolated versus wide-spread) and their location with respect to dynamical controls (the vertical shear, the radius of maximum wind). Yet a third set of controls signifies the interaction between the storm-scale and large-scale processes. Our goal is to use observations and models to advance the still-lacking understanding of these processes. Recently, hurricane models have improved significantly. However, deterministic forecasts have limitations due to the uncertainty in the representation of the physical processes and initial conditions. A crucial step forward is the use of high-resolution ensembles. We adopt the following approach: i) generate a high resolution ensemble forecast using HWRF; ii) produce synthetic data (e.g. brightness temperature) from the model fields for direct comparison to satellite observations; iii) develop metrics to allow us to sub-select the realistic members of the ensemble, based on objective measures of the similarity between observed and forecasted structures; iv) for these most-realistic members, determine the skill in forecasting TCs to provide"guidance on guidance"; v) use the members with the best predictive skill to untangle the complex multi-scale interactions. We will report on the first three goals of our research, using forecasts and observations of hurricane Edouard (2014), focusing on RI. We will focus on describing the metrics for the selection of the most appropriate ensemble members, based on applying low-wave number analysis (WNA - Hristova-Veleva et al., 2016) to the observed and

  6. Weather forecast

    CERN Document Server

    Courtier, P

    1994-02-07

    Weather prediction is performed using the numerical model of the atmosphere evolution.The evolution equations are derived from the Navier Stokes equation for the adiabatic part but the are very much complicated by the change of phase of water, the radiation porocess and the boundary layer.The technique used operationally is described. Weather prediction is an initial value problem and accurate initial conditions need to be specified. Due to the small number of observations available (105 ) as compared to the dimension of the model state variable (107),the problem is largely underdetermined. Techniques of optimal control and inverse problems are used and have been adapted to the large dimension of our problem. our problem.The at mosphere is a chaotic system; the implication for weather prediction is discussed. Ensemble prediction is used operationally and the technique for generating initial conditions which lead to a numerical divergence of the subsequent forecasts is described.

  7. The radiological impact of the LEP project on the environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goebel, K.

    1981-01-01

    The siting of the large electron-positron (LEP) accelerator, its experimental areas, and its supporting infrastructure are discussed with respect to the radiological impact on the surrounding areas and on the population in the Pays de Gex and the Canton de Geneve. The final conclusions are based on work done by the former LEP Study Group and by the LEP Radiation Working Group. The calculations and estimates show that the stray ionizing radiation, the radioactivity, and the radiation-induced noxious chemical products released by the LEP installation will have only an insignificant impact on the area, the individual members of the public, and the population as a whole. This result for LEP 'phase 85' can also be extrapolated under reasonable assumptions for LEP 125 - a possible future development phase of the present project. (orig.)

  8. Socioeconomic impact assessment in a complex economic environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petterson, J.S.

    1988-01-01

    This presentation was to have been given in coordination with several others which shared, as a common focus, the analysis of potential socioeconomic impacts of a proposed high-level nuclear waste repository at the Hanford Site, Washington. In December of 1987, Congress removed the Hanford Site from consideration as a repository location and, effectively and immediately, terminated the socioeconomic study. The immediate drawback to all of this is that this paper cannot be presented in the context created by the other papers as intended. This paper presents one important aspect of the difficulties associated with long-term socioeconomic impact projections at the Hanford Site, and has a narrower focus than otherwise would have been the case

  9. The Impact of the Macroeconomic Environment on Insurance Companies

    OpenAIRE

    Čepeláková, Lenka

    2015-01-01

    i Abstract: This thesis assesses the impact of economic, institutional and demographic factors on the life and non-life gross written premiums of insurance companies. A dynamic panel data regression using the system generalized method of mo- ments is applied on data of 29 European countries collected by EIOPA covering the period from 2005 to 2013. The results reveal that economic and institutio- nal factors drive both life and non-life insurance industry. On the other hand, we cannot confirm ...

  10. Environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McIntyre, A.D.; Turnbull, R.G.H.

    1992-01-01

    The development of the hydrocarbon resources of the North Sea has resulted in both offshore and onshore environmental repercussions, involving the existing physical attributes of the sea and seabed, the coastline and adjoining land. The social and economic repercussions of the industry were equally widespread. The dramatic and speedy impact of the exploration and exploitation of the northern North Sea resources in the early 1970s, on the physical resources of Scotland was quickly realised together with the concern that any environmental and social damage to the physical and social fabric should be kept to a minimum. To this end, a wide range of research and other activities by central and local government, and other interested agencies was undertaken to extend existing knowledge on the marine and terrestrial environments that might be affected by the oil and gas industry. The outcome of these activities is summarized in this paper. The topics covered include a survey of the marine ecosystems of the North Sea, the fishing industry, the impact of oil pollution on seabirds and fish stocks, the ecology of the Scottish coastline and the impact of the petroleum industry on a selection of particular sites. (author)

  11. Stimulating innovation for global monitoring of agriculture and its impact on the environment in support of GEOGLAM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bydekerke, Lieven; Gilliams, Sven; Gobin, Anne

    2015-04-01

    There is an urgent need to ensure food supply for a growing global population. To enable a sustainable growth of agricultural production, effective and timely information is required to support decision making and to improve management of agricultural resources. This requires innovative ways and monitoring methods that will not only improve short-term crop production forecasts, but also allow to assess changes in cultivation practices, agricultural areas, agriculture in general and, its impact on the environment. The G20 launched in June 2011 the "GEO Global Agricultural Monitoring initiative (GEOGLAM), requesting the GEO (Group on Earth Observations) Agricultural Community of Practice to implement GEOGLAM with the main objective to improve crop yield forecasts as an input to the Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS), in order to foster stabilisation of markets and increase transparency on agricultural production. In response to this need, the European Commission decided in 2013 to fund an international partnership to contribute to GEOGLAM and its research agenda. The resulting SIGMA project (Stimulating Innovation for Global Monitoring of Agriculture), a partnership of 23 globally distributed expert organisations, focusses on developing datasets and innovative techniques in support of agricultural monitoring and its impact on the environment in support of GEOGLAM. SIGMA has 3 generic objectives which are: (i) develop and test methods to characterise cropland and assess its changes at various scales; (ii) develop and test methods to assess changes in agricultural production levels; and; (iii) study environmental impacts of agriculture. Firstly, multi-scale remote sensing data sets, in combination with field and other ancillary data, will be used to generate an improved (global) agro-ecological zoning map and crop mask. Secondly, a combination of agro-meteorological models, satellite-based information and long-term time series will be explored to assess crop

  12. Aligned composite structures for mitigation of impact damage and resistance to wear in dynamic environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mulligan, Anthony C.; Rigali, Mark J.; Sutaria, Manish P.; Popovich, Dragan; Halloran, Joseph P.; Fulcher, Michael L.; Cook, Randy C.

    2009-04-14

    Fibrous monolith composites having architectures that provide increased flaw insensitivity, improved hardness, wear resistance and damage tolerance and methods of manufacture thereof are provided for use in dynamic environments to mitigate impact damage and increase wear resistance.

  13. Radioactivity and its impact on the environment in the subject of study at FCHPT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hola, O.; Foeldesova, M.

    2010-01-01

    In this paper a review of teaching of radioactivity and its impact on the environment in the subject of study at the Faculty of Chemical and Food Technology of the Slovak Technical University in Bratislava is reviewed.

  14. Positive impact of electric vehicle and ngv on environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shahidul I Khan; Kannan, K.S.; Md Shah Majid

    1999-01-01

    Electric Vehicle uses electricity from batteries as fuel and is environment friendly with zero emission. The occurrence of haze in 1997 in Malaysia and neighbouring countries has called for new studies about motor vehicle emission as it aggravates the problem. In big cities like Kuala Lumpur, Penang and Johor Bahru where it is estimated that over 300,000 vehicles enter the city everyday, smoke pollution from vehicles is identified as the major contributor to air quality. One of the solutions to air pollution problem could be the use of Electric Vehicles (EV) and Natural Gas for Vehicle (NGV). The NGV uses compressed natural gas mainly methane, is lead free and clean burning with low emission. The electric vehicles use batteries as power source. These batteries are charged off-peak hour, specifically after mid-night when the electric load curve has its least demand period. The number of electric vehicles and NGV in future years is calculated considering the penetration level. The reduction in pollution is estimated considering the number of automobiles replaced by electric vehicles and NGV. Finally, it is concluded that EV and NGV could be the ultimate solution for pollution control and could improve the environment specifically that of congested cities of Malaysia. (Author)

  15. [Even cigarette butts can impact environment and health: preliminary considerations].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martino, Gianrocco; Gorini, Giuseppe; Chellini, Elisabetta

    2013-01-01

    In Italy, every year about 72 billion of cigarette butts are thrown away in the environment. Cigarette butts represent 50% of the wastes of urban areas (parks, roads) in the world, and 40% of Mediterranean Sea wastes. In particular, total polluting load is constituted of 1,872 Bq millions of Polonium-210, assuming 75 mBq per cigarette butt, and 1,800 tons of volatile organic compounds. As a matter of fact, according to several surveys, cigarette butts are considered by smokers and non-smokers as a common and acceptable waste in the environment. In 2008, European Union issued a Directive on wastes considering the «extended producer responsibility» (i.e., every industry is liable for costs of collection, transport and disposal of its own products). In October 2012, the Italian Parliament proposed a bill that classifies cigarette butts as special wastes in the frame of this responsibility. It could be interesting in the future to follow the legislative process of that bill in the Italian Parliament in order to show how strong it will be supported.

  16. Impact of mineral transformation on elemental mobility in aquatic environments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waite, T.D.; Payne, T.E.; Davis, J.A.

    1994-01-01

    While laboratory and field studies of uranium uptake on naturally occurring mineral substrates have indicated that interaction with amorphous oxide phases controls the steady state concentration of uranium in the dissolved phase, questions remain concerning the impact of crystallization of these amorphous phases on ability of the minerals to retain adsorbed uranium. Using isotope exchange techniques, the authors confirm that a portion of the adsorbed uranium is retained within the mineral structure on increasing crystallization. In addition, the relationship between increased crystallinity, decreased site density and lowered elemental uptake is discussed, with uranium partitioning to the solids of varying crystallinity successfully modelled using the surface complexation approach

  17. EU pharmaceutical expenditure forecast.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urbinati, Duccio; Rémuzat, Cécile; Kornfeld, Åsa; Vataire, Anne-Lise; Cetinsoy, Laurent; Aballéa, Samuel; Mzoughi, Olfa; Toumi, Mondher

    2014-01-01

    With constant incentives for healthcare payers to contain their pharmaceutical budgets, forecasting has become critically important. Some countries have, for instance, developed pharmaceutical horizon scanning units. The objective of this project was to build a model to assess the net effect of the entrance of new patented medicinal products versus medicinal products going off-patent, with a defined forecast horizon, on selected European Union (EU) Member States' pharmaceutical budgets. This model took into account population ageing, as well as current and future country-specific pricing, reimbursement, and market access policies (the project was performed for the European Commission; see http://ec.europa.eu/health/healthcare/key_documents/index_en.htm). In order to have a representative heterogeneity of EU Member States, the following countries were selected for the analysis: France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Poland, Portugal, and the United Kingdom. A forecasting period of 5 years (2012-2016) was chosen to assess the net pharmaceutical budget impact. A model for generics and biosimilars was developed for each country. The model estimated a separate and combined effect of the direct and indirect impacts of the patent cliff. A second model, estimating the sales development and the risk of development failure, was developed for new drugs. New drugs were reviewed individually to assess their clinical potential and translate it into commercial potential. The forecast was carried out according to three perspectives (healthcare public payer, society, and manufacturer), and several types of distribution chains (retail, hospital, and combined retail and hospital). Probabilistic and deterministic sensitivity analyses were carried out. According to the model, all countries experienced drug budget reductions except Poland (+€41 million). Savings were expected to be the highest in the United Kingdom (-€9,367 million), France (-€5,589 million), and, far behind them

  18. Assessment on ecological environment impact caused by the exploitation of a uranium mine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Xueli; Xu Lechang; Li Xianjie; Wang Erqi; Wei Guangzhi; Hu Penghua

    2008-01-01

    On the basis of investigation, the assessment index of ecological environment impact is determined from the aspects of natural eco-environment and social eco-environment. Both qualitative analysis and quantitative assessment are adopted for assessing the ecological environment impact during the exploitation of a uranium mine in Jiangxi province. The results show that some values of the assessment index in natural eco-subsystem decline slightly, while those of the assessment index in social eco-subsystem ascend so that the ecological environment quality around the uranium mine ascend slightly. Moreover, some reasonable advices on eco-environment protection measures are put forward in order to build a ecotype uranium mine. (authors)

  19. The impacts of fracking on the environment: A total environmental study paradigm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Qingmin

    2017-02-15

    Fracking has become a hot topic in the media and public discourse not only because of its economic benefit but also its environmental impacts. Recently, scientists have investigated the environmental impacts of fracking, and most studies focus on its air and ground water pollution. A systematic research structure and an overall evaluation of fracking's impacts on the environment are needed, because fracking does not only influence ground water but most environmental elements including but not limited to air, water, soil, rock, vegetation, wildlife, human, and many other ecosystem components. From the standpoint of the total environment, this communication assesses the overall impacts of fracking on the environment and then designs a total environmental study paradigm that effectively examines the complicated relationship among the total environment. Fracking dramatically changes the anthroposphere, which in turn significantly impacts the atmosphere, hydrosphere, lithosphere, and biosphere through the significant input or output of water, air, liquid or solid waste disposals, and the complex chemical components in fracking fluids. The proposed total environment study paradigm of fracking can be applied to other significant human activities that have dramatic impacts on the environment, such as mountain top coal mining or oil sands for environmental studies. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. THE IMPACT OF THE MINING EXPLOITATIONS FROM BUDOI ON THE NATURAL ENVIRONMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cătălin CREłU

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The work is an attempt to respond to what extent the environment affected by serious anthropogenic interventions (the mining exploitation from the Budoi tunnel and the Budoi Village is close to its original state or a similar one, as a result of cessation of anthropic impact and the conduct of a program of restoration and preservation of the environment.

  1. ABOUT INFLUENCE OF DIFFERENT SCHEMES IMPACT RADIATION ENVIRONMENTS AND LOADS ON REINFORCED LAMELLAR STRUCTURAL MEMBERS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rafail B. Garibov

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The article discusses the model of deformation of fiber-reinforced concrete rectangular plate under the influence of radiation environments. In the calculation of the plate was considered different schemes impact of the applied external loads and radiation environments.

  2. The COURAGE Built Environment Outdoor Checklist: an objective built environment instrument to investigate the impact of the environment on health and disability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quintas, Rui; Raggi, Alberto; Bucciarelli, Paola; Franco, Maria Grazia; Andreotti, Alessandra; Caballero, Francisco Félix; Olaya, Beatriz; Chatterji, Somnath; Galas, Aleksander; Meriläinen-Porras, Satu; Frisoni, Giovanni; Russo, Emanuela; Minicuci, Nadia; Power, Mick; Leonardi, Matilde

    2014-01-01

    A tool to assess the built environment, which takes into account issues of disability, accessibility and the need for data comparable across countries and populations, is much needed. The Collaborative Research on Ageing in Europe (COURAGE) in Europe Built Environment Outdoor Checklist (CBE-OUT) helps us to understand when features of the neighbourhood environment have either a positive or negative impact on the accessibility of neighbourhoods for healthy ageing. The CBE-OUT is composed of 128 items that can be recorded when present in the evaluated environment. Audits were performed in households randomly selected from each cluster of the sample for Finland, Poland and Spain, following precise rules defined by experts. Global scores were computed both section by section and in the overall checklist, rescaling the resulting scores from 0 (negative environment) to 100 (positive). The total number of completed CBE-OUT checklists was 2452 (Finland, 245; Poland, 972; and Spain, 1235). Mean global score for our sample is 49.3, suggesting an environment composed both of facilitating and hindering features. Significant differences were observed in the built environment features of the three countries and in particular between Finland and the other two. The assessment of features of built environment is crucial when thinking about ageing and enhanced participation. The COURAGE in Europe project developed this tool to collect information on built environment in an objective evaluation of environmental features and is a recommended methodology for future studies. The CBE-OUT checklist is an objective evaluation of the built environment and is centred on technical measurement of features present in the environment and has its foundations in the concepts of disability and accessibility operating in the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF) model. The CBE-OUT checklist can be analysed using both the total score and the single section score

  3. Impact of power plant KRSKO on the environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hak, Nena; Lulic, Stipe

    1993-01-01

    The Sava river is among the largest rivers in the Republic of Croatia. It drains 95.000 square kilometers before meeting the Danube River. The Sava river and its surroundings we being exploited in agriculture, forestry, power generation (one nuclear power plant and several thermal power plants), oil transportation, gravel extraction and recreation. At last, the Sava River is the major source of fresh water for industry and population. Different authorized institutions from the Republic of Slovenia and the Republic of Croatia are included in programs of nonradiological and radiological monitoring of Nuclear Power Plant Krsko (NPPK). Quarterly, the institutions from the Republic of Croatia, NPP Krsko and the Ministry of Energy of the Republic of Croatia, submit public information in the Republic of Croatia about NPP Krsko operation and its environmental impact

  4. Uranium mining and processing: their radiation impact into the environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ostapczuk, Peter; Zoriy, Petro; Dederichs, Herbert; Lennartz, Reinhard

    2008-01-01

    Based on Thorium and Uranium determination in soil and plants samples collected in the region of Aktau, Kazakhstan the distribution pattern of environmental pollution by these elements was correlated with the radiation dose. The main radiation source was the waste deposit of the equipment used by the uranium processing (dose higher than 5 μSv/h). The mining area and also the transportation way from mine to the uranium factory has also an radiation impact which is difficult to estimate. Based on the data found by plants and soil samples all the area under study has a higher pollution level by Thorium and Uranium than the control area (about 0.1μSv/h). Due to observed strong wind blowing in different directions it is possible that the particle of uranium ore has been transported for long distance and polluted the plants and upper soil layer. The further investigations should get more information about this supposition. (author)

  5. Environment impact of a very low level waste specific landfill

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brun-Yaba, C.; Peres, J.M.; Besnus, F.

    1996-01-01

    Operating enrichment plants, nuclear power plants and reprocessing plants and the decommissioning of nuclear facilities will give rise to large volumes of waste material (concrete, steel and others metals, technological wastes heat insulators...) and most of them, in term of quantities, will be categorized as very low level wastes. This paper deals with the environmental impact of a specific landfill as a final destination for the very low level radioactive waste (VLLW) with the aim of providing technical elements for safer workers practices during the operational and the monitoring phases and for a public occupation after closure of the site. This study has been made on the basis of inventories in terms of estimated quantities and spectra of the French VLLW for a set of scenarios which are representative of practices in a landfill. (author)

  6. National Forecast Charts

    Science.gov (United States)

    code. Press enter or select the go button to submit request Local forecast by "City, St" or Prediction Center on Twitter NCEP Quarterly Newsletter WPC Home Analyses and Forecasts National Forecast to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services. National Forecast Charts

  7. Are Forecast Updates Progressive?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractMacro-economic forecasts typically involve both a model component, which is replicable, as well as intuition, which is non-replicable. Intuition is expert knowledge possessed by a forecaster. If forecast updates are progressive, forecast updates should become more accurate, on average,

  8. Forecasting freight flows

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lyk-Jensen, Stéphanie

    2011-01-01

    Trade patterns and transport markets are changing as a result of the growth and globalization of international trade, and forecasting future freight flow has to rely on trade forecasts. Forecasting freight flows is critical for matching infrastructure supply to demand and for assessing investment...... constitute a valuable input to freight models for forecasting future capacity problems.......Trade patterns and transport markets are changing as a result of the growth and globalization of international trade, and forecasting future freight flow has to rely on trade forecasts. Forecasting freight flows is critical for matching infrastructure supply to demand and for assessing investment...

  9. Assessment of the impacts of the French nuclear program on the environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Naudet, G.

    1994-01-01

    This paper is an assessment of the impact of the French nuclear program on investments, on electricity price, on electricity and energy demand and especially on environment. The impact on atmosphere pollution which is based on a macro economic long term model (called MELODY), particularly detailed for the energy sector, is outlined. (TEC). 10 figs., 1 tab., 4 refs

  10. Impact of uranium tailings on the environment and population

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hladka, E.; Burian, I.; Svoboda, S.

    1991-01-01

    Air contamination measurements and water analysis from the surroundings of dumps of some mines were performed in the Pribram mining district. The dumps pose a hazard of potential exposure basically by two routes: by contamination of the environment and by population exposure due to the leak of radon and its daughter products, and also of dust, from the dumps into air and into rainwater and snow-water, thus bringing about contamination of surface and underground waters. Measurements of the concentration of latent energy of radon daughters and of the exposure rate of external gamma radiation gave evidence that the limits set by the Decree of the Ministry of Health of the Czech Republic No. 59/1972 for individuals in the population are reached neither at the foot of the dump nor in nearby villages, although the values are higher than the natural background. The most serious contamination of the hydrosphere in the locality examined is due to moisture seeping from the dumps. The concentrations of radionuclides, of uranium in particular, are considerably higher than as corresponds to the natural background. With respect to the dose equivalent limit for individuals from the population, the contributions from the tailings are mere fractions of the annual limits. The doses, however, are higher than the value set by IAEA as the ''de minimis'' criterion, which is 10 μSv/year. (Z.S.). 4 tabs., 9 refs

  11. Impact of the Chernobyl fallout in the alpine environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gastberger, M.; Lettner, H.; Hofmann, W.; Pohl-Rueling, J.; Steinhaeusler, N.F.; Hubmer, A.

    1997-01-01

    In Austria the alpine regions received the highest fallout contamination, showing a very inhomogeneous spatial distribution of the surface deposition. About half of the national territory is within alpine regions, which are very different in times of underlying bedrock and soil characteristic. Since this is the controlling factor for the radionuclide uptake of the vegetation, it is crucial for the long-term effects of radioactive fallout. Different studies have been carried out in the Province of Salzburg (area: 7154 km 2 ) over the past ten years, addressing a broad spectrum of issues, such as: measurement of the spatial distribution of the fallout, research in monitoring techniques comparison of theoretical calculations with actual in vivo-measurements of nuclide uptake by man for different population groups, and the investigation of biological effects. When considering the radioecological effects of the Chernobyl fallout a distinction has to be made between the short-term effects immediately following the fallout and the long-term effects. While the short term effects are controlled by the physical characteristics of the fallout, similar for the whole region, the long-term effects are more determined by the radioecological properties of the environments affected which are much more variable than the fallout-characteristics

  12. THE IMPACT OF LANGUAGES ON THE ONLINE BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    COANCA MARIANA

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with an analysis of the English language, as lingua franca of the Internet, mainly online business environment. If a business has already developed a Web site, it is important to translate the site into the target language of a particular foreign market. It sounds easy, but is a literal translation all that's required for a different culture? We shall see in the next parts of this paper. Indeed, nowadays, the whole humanity has at its disposal an exceptional, very powerful medium. The new communications technology is causing a revolution in many aspects of our lives, and its future effects are still unforeseeable English is an integral part of business communication, job opportunities and globalization. Cultural translation goes beyond mere linguistic translation, since it involves designing a Web site that is sensitive to the cultural differences, between the originated country and the target country. If you ask any search marketer what the main issue is when trying to optimize website(s for Europe he will tell you: language.

  13. Nanopatents and their impact on the medical environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lacour, Stéphanie

    2011-01-01

    The nano-medical field is seen, by governments as well as the business sector as a very promising one. The process of converting basic research in nanomedecine into commercially viable products has already begun, even if it might be long and difficult. Part of the difficulties that could occur comes from regulatory and safety issues. Some of them are also coming from patent uncertainty in the global nanotechnology field. Indeed, the rush towards patents in the nanotechnology arena has already begun. Nanopatents are about to alter the legal landscape of the innovation economy, of research and development, and of industry--no doubt to an unprecedented extent because of the scope covered by these technologies. From a global point of view, the very delineation of the scope of nanotechnologies confronts patent law with complex problems of definition. The emergence and characteristics of this technology are also giving rise to a reassessment of the criteria for patentability that could be prejudicial to innovation. In the medical environment, this issue is even exacerbated in the real challenges which pharmaceutical companies are running up against.

  14. Noise pollution in opencast mines - its impact on human environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tripathy, D.P.; Patnaik, N.K.

    1994-01-01

    Noise could be defined as sound without agreeable musical quality or as unwanted sound. The problem of noise has been accentuated in the mining industry due to increased mechanisation. In opencast mines, noise is generated in almost all the mining operations, becoming thereby an integral part of the mining environment. Prolonged exposure to high levels of noise (>90dBA) proves harmful and may culminate in NIHL. Noise may also bring about other physiological disorders which could lead to irritability and lowering of efficiency. Before initiating any administrative, engineering and medical measures against the noise hazards, noise surveys are essential. They help in identifying the noise pollution sources and quantifying the risk exposures of workers. Effective antinoise measures can accordingly be formulated and implemented. The present paper discusses the results of noise studies in a limestone and dolomite quarry and analyses the SPL (dBA) produced by different machinery in this mine. Further, it focuses on the adverse effects of noise and lists the instruments available for noise monitoring. It also presents the noise standards recommended in India and abroad and suggests the noise abatement strategies to be adopted for protecting the workers against NHL. 7 refs., 2 figs., 6 tabs., 1 app

  15. Sulphur in the Arctic environment (3): environmental impact

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kashulina, G.; Reimann, C.; Banks, D.

    2003-01-01

    The whole spectrum of emitted elements need to be studied in order to understand the effects of humans on the environment. - Long term, high level airborne emissions of pollutants from nickel industries on the Kola Peninsula (NW Russia) have resulted in widespread ecosystem injury up to almost complete vegetation eradication within nearest surroundings of the smelters. Although SO 2 is the prevailing component of the emissions, it is only part of a much more complex chemical emission spectrum in the region. In addition to acidic gases, industry also emits potentially toxic elements (e.g. metals) which being less volatile than SO 2 , are deposited within the immediate region in significant concentrations. Additionally, it appears that sources of base cations (co-emission by smelters, sea aerosols, other industries) are adequate to prevent environmental acidification on the regional scale. Acidification of soils and waters appeared only as single cases in the immediate vicinity of the smelters and is not believed to be a major mechanism of environmental deterioration. Proposed critical concentrations (5 μg/m 3 ) of SO 2 for the northern ecosystems are exceeded over a large area and direct exposure to SO 2 is believed to be the possible mechanism of vegetation damage

  16. Uncertainty and Disagreement in Forecasting Inflation : Evidence from the Laboratory (Revised version of CentER DP 2011-053)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pfajfar, D.; Zakelj, B.

    2012-01-01

    Abstract: This paper compares the behavior of subjects' uncertainty in different monetary policy environments when forecasting inflation in the laboratory. We find that inflation targeting produces lower uncertainty and higher accuracy of interval forecasts than inflation forecast targeting. We also

  17. Uncertainty and Disagreement in Forecasting Inflation : Evidence from the Laboratory (Revised version of EBC DP 2011-014)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pfajfar, D.; Zakelj, B.

    2012-01-01

    Abstract: This paper compares the behavior of subjects' uncertainty in different monetary policy environments when forecasting inflation in the laboratory. We find that inflation targeting produces lower uncertainty and higher accuracy of interval forecasts than inflation forecast targeting. We also

  18. Promotion demand forecast: A Case Study of Coca Cola Enterprise

    OpenAIRE

    Lai, Hoi-Yin Cecilia

    2007-01-01

    In this highly competitive business environment, forecasting becomes one of the hot topics. Every business organization uses forecasts for decision marking. Forecasting can help companies to determine the market strategy. It also helps in production planning and resources allocation. A good forecast can help the management team to make the best decision. Nowadays, it is important to develop a collaborative partnership within the supply chain. Coca Cola Enterprise (CCE) is working with its cus...

  19. Probabilistic energy forecasting: Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2014 and beyond

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hong, Tao; Pinson, Pierre; Fan, Shu

    2016-01-01

    The energy industry has been going through a significant modernization process over the last decade. Its infrastructure is being upgraded rapidly. The supply, demand and prices are becoming more volatile and less predictable than ever before. Even its business model is being challenged fundamenta......The energy industry has been going through a significant modernization process over the last decade. Its infrastructure is being upgraded rapidly. The supply, demand and prices are becoming more volatile and less predictable than ever before. Even its business model is being challenged...... fundamentally. In this competitive and dynamic environment, many decision-making processes rely on probabilistic forecasts to quantify the uncertain future. Although most of the papers in the energy forecasting literature focus on point or singlevalued forecasts, the research interest in probabilistic energy...

  20. Impacts of energy utilization in a tropical environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kleemann, M.; Penner, K.; Seele, U.

    1992-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to present the approach and the interim results of the Indonesian-German scientific co-operation on environmental impacts of future energy utilization in Indonesia. The aim of the planning study is to provide decision support for Indonesian authorities in order to develop environmentally compatible energy supply strategies. The environmental problems will focus on the island of Java with a population density of more than 800 inhabitants/km 2 which might reach 1200 within the next 25 years. Due to the further economic growth and the population increase the energy consumption of the industry, the traffic, and the household sector will increase significantly. In particular the polluting coal utilization will grow overproportionally because of declining oil reserves. Additionally, the industrial development is concentrated on the island of Java which covers only 8% of the land area of the country. A serious pollution of the sensitive tropical ecosystems in the future would be the consequence of this unbalanced developments if no efforts are made to reduce the pollutant emissions. Even today the air quality has already reached critical levels in many parts of Java. 3 figs., 3 tabs