WorldWideScience

Sample records for impact assessment models

  1. Underwater noise modelling for environmental impact assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Farcas, Adrian [Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science (Cefas), Pakefield Road, Lowestoft, NR33 0HT (United Kingdom); Thompson, Paul M. [Lighthouse Field Station, Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Cromarty IV11 8YL (United Kingdom); Merchant, Nathan D., E-mail: nathan.merchant@cefas.co.uk [Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science (Cefas), Pakefield Road, Lowestoft, NR33 0HT (United Kingdom)

    2016-02-15

    Assessment of underwater noise is increasingly required by regulators of development projects in marine and freshwater habitats, and noise pollution can be a constraining factor in the consenting process. Noise levels arising from the proposed activity are modelled and the potential impact on species of interest within the affected area is then evaluated. Although there is considerable uncertainty in the relationship between noise levels and impacts on aquatic species, the science underlying noise modelling is well understood. Nevertheless, many environmental impact assessments (EIAs) do not reflect best practice, and stakeholders and decision makers in the EIA process are often unfamiliar with the concepts and terminology that are integral to interpreting noise exposure predictions. In this paper, we review the process of underwater noise modelling and explore the factors affecting predictions of noise exposure. Finally, we illustrate the consequences of errors and uncertainties in noise modelling, and discuss future research needs to reduce uncertainty in noise assessments.

  2. Underwater noise modelling for environmental impact assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farcas, Adrian; Thompson, Paul M.; Merchant, Nathan D.

    2016-01-01

    Assessment of underwater noise is increasingly required by regulators of development projects in marine and freshwater habitats, and noise pollution can be a constraining factor in the consenting process. Noise levels arising from the proposed activity are modelled and the potential impact on species of interest within the affected area is then evaluated. Although there is considerable uncertainty in the relationship between noise levels and impacts on aquatic species, the science underlying noise modelling is well understood. Nevertheless, many environmental impact assessments (EIAs) do not reflect best practice, and stakeholders and decision makers in the EIA process are often unfamiliar with the concepts and terminology that are integral to interpreting noise exposure predictions. In this paper, we review the process of underwater noise modelling and explore the factors affecting predictions of noise exposure. Finally, we illustrate the consequences of errors and uncertainties in noise modelling, and discuss future research needs to reduce uncertainty in noise assessments.

  3. Agricultural climate impacts assessment for economic modeling and decision support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomson, A. M.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Beach, R.; Zhang, X.; Zhao, K.; Monier, E.

    2013-12-01

    A range of approaches can be used in the application of climate change projections to agricultural impacts assessment. Climate projections can be used directly to drive crop models, which in turn can be used to provide inputs for agricultural economic or integrated assessment models. These model applications, and the transfer of information between models, must be guided by the state of the science. But the methodology must also account for the specific needs of stakeholders and the intended use of model results beyond pure scientific inquiry, including meeting the requirements of agencies responsible for designing and assessing policies, programs, and regulations. Here we present methodology and results of two climate impacts studies that applied climate model projections from CMIP3 and from the EPA Climate Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) project in a crop model (EPIC - Environmental Policy Indicator Climate) in order to generate estimates of changes in crop productivity for use in an agricultural economic model for the United States (FASOM - Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model). The FASOM model is a forward-looking dynamic model of the US forest and agricultural sector used to assess market responses to changing productivity of alternative land uses. The first study, focused on climate change impacts on the UDSA crop insurance program, was designed to use available daily climate projections from the CMIP3 archive. The decision to focus on daily data for this application limited the climate model and time period selection significantly; however for the intended purpose of assessing impacts on crop insurance payments, consideration of extreme event frequency was critical for assessing periodic crop failures. In a second, coordinated impacts study designed to assess the relative difference in climate impacts under a no-mitigation policy and different future climate mitigation scenarios, the stakeholder specifically requested an assessment of a

  4. Assessing women's lacrosse head impacts using finite element modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, J Michio; Hoshizaki, T Blaine; Gilchrist, Michael D

    2018-04-01

    Recently studies have assessed the ability of helmets to reduce peak linear and rotational acceleration for women's lacrosse head impacts. However, such measures have had low correlation with injury. Maximum principal strain interprets loading curves which provide better injury prediction than peak linear and rotational acceleration, especially in compliant situations which create low magnitude accelerations but long impact durations. The purpose of this study was to assess head and helmet impacts in women's lacrosse using finite element modelling. Linear and rotational acceleration loading curves from women's lacrosse impacts to a helmeted and an unhelmeted Hybrid III headform were input into the University College Dublin Brain Trauma Model. The finite element model was used to calculate maximum principal strain in the cerebrum. The results demonstrated for unhelmeted impacts, falls and ball impacts produce higher maximum principal strain values than stick and shoulder collisions. The strain values for falls and ball impacts were found to be within the range of concussion and traumatic brain injury. The results also showed that men's lacrosse helmets reduced maximum principal strain for follow-through slashing, falls and ball impacts. These findings are novel and demonstrate that for high risk events, maximum principal strain can be reduced by implementing the use of helmets if the rules of the sport do not effectively manage such situations. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Groundwater Impacts of Radioactive Wastes and Associated Environmental Modeling Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ma, Rui; Zheng, Chunmiao; Liu, Chongxuan

    2012-11-01

    This article provides a review of the major sources of radioactive wastes and their impacts on groundwater contamination. The review discusses the major biogeochemical processes that control the transport and fate of radionuclide contaminants in groundwater, and describe the evolution of mathematical models designed to simulate and assess the transport and transformation of radionuclides in groundwater.

  6. Environmental impact assessments and geological repositories: A model process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Webster, S.

    2000-01-01

    In a recent study carried out for the European Commission, the scope and application of environmental impact assessment (EIA) legislation and current EIA practice in European Union Member States and applicant countries of Central and Eastern Europe was investigated, specifically in relation to the geological disposal of radioactive waste. This paper reports the study's investigations into a model approach to EIA in the context of geological repositories, including the role of the assessment in the overall decision processes and public involvement. (author)

  7. A model for assessing social impacts of nuclear technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suzuki, Atsuyuki; Kiyose, Ryohei

    1981-01-01

    A theoretical framework is given for assessing the social or environmental impacts of nuclear technology. A two-act problem concerning the incentive-penalty system is supposed to formulate the principle of ALAP. An observation plan to make decision on the problem is optimized with the Bayseian decision theory. The optimized solution resting on the amount of incentive or penalty is compared with an actual or practical plan. Then, by finding the indifference between the two plans, an impact is assessed in monetary terms. As regards the third step, the model does not provide the details since it is beyond the scope of the description. If there exists an actual plan, it can be easily compared with the results from this theory. If there does not or in the process of making it, its feasibility must be studied by another model or by different approaches. (J.P.N.)

  8. Forensic DNA phenotyping: Developing a model privacy impact assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scudder, Nathan; McNevin, Dennis; Kelty, Sally F; Walsh, Simon J; Robertson, James

    2018-05-01

    Forensic scientists around the world are adopting new technology platforms capable of efficiently analysing a larger proportion of the human genome. Undertaking this analysis could provide significant operational benefits, particularly in giving investigators more information about the donor of genetic material, a particularly useful investigative lead. Such information could include predicting externally visible characteristics such as eye and hair colour, as well as biogeographical ancestry. This article looks at the adoption of this new technology from a privacy perspective, using this to inform and critique the application of a Privacy Impact Assessment to this emerging technology. Noting the benefits and limitations, the article develops a number of themes that would influence a model Privacy Impact Assessment as a contextual framework for forensic laboratories and law enforcement agencies considering implementing forensic DNA phenotyping for operational use. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Modeling Of Construction Noise For Environmental Impact Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamed F. Hamoda

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available This study measured the noise levels generated at different construction sites in reference to the stage of construction and the equipment used, and examined the methods to predict such noise in order to assess the environmental impact of noise. It included 33 construction sites in Kuwait and used artificial neural networks (ANNs for the prediction of noise. A back-propagation neural network (BPNN model was compared with a general regression neural network (GRNN model. The results obtained indicated that the mean equivalent noise level was 78.7 dBA which exceeds the threshold limit. The GRNN model was superior to the BPNN model in its accuracy of predicting construction noise due to its ability to train quickly on sparse data sets. Over 93% of the predictions were within 5% of the observed values. The mean absolute error between the predicted and observed data was only 2 dBA. The ANN modeling proved to be a useful technique for noise predictions required in the assessment of environmental impact of construction activities.

  10. Avian collision risk models for wind energy impact assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Masden, E.A., E-mail: elizabeth.masden@uhi.ac.uk [Environmental Research Institute, North Highland College-UHI, University of the Highlands and Islands, Ormlie Road, Thurso, Caithness KW14 7EE (United Kingdom); Cook, A.S.C.P. [British Trust for Ornithology, The Nunnery, Thetford IP24 2PU (United Kingdom)

    2016-01-15

    With the increasing global development of wind energy, collision risk models (CRMs) are routinely used to assess the potential impacts of wind turbines on birds. We reviewed and compared the avian collision risk models currently available in the scientific literature, exploring aspects such as the calculation of a collision probability, inclusion of stationary components e.g. the tower, angle of approach and uncertainty. 10 models were cited in the literature and of these, all included a probability of collision of a single bird colliding with a wind turbine during passage through the rotor swept area, and the majority included a measure of the number of birds at risk. 7 out of the 10 models calculated the probability of birds colliding, whilst the remainder used a constant. We identified four approaches to calculate the probability of collision and these were used by others. 6 of the 10 models were deterministic and included the most frequently used models in the UK, with only 4 including variation or uncertainty in some way, the most recent using Bayesian methods. Despite their appeal, CRMs have their limitations and can be ‘data hungry’ as well as assuming much about bird movement and behaviour. As data become available, these assumptions should be tested to ensure that CRMs are functioning to adequately answer the questions posed by the wind energy sector. - Highlights: • We highlighted ten models available to assess avian collision risk. • Only 4 of the models included variability or uncertainty. • Collision risk models have limitations and can be ‘data hungry’. • It is vital that the most appropriate model is used for a given task.

  11. Avian collision risk models for wind energy impact assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Masden, E.A.; Cook, A.S.C.P.

    2016-01-01

    With the increasing global development of wind energy, collision risk models (CRMs) are routinely used to assess the potential impacts of wind turbines on birds. We reviewed and compared the avian collision risk models currently available in the scientific literature, exploring aspects such as the calculation of a collision probability, inclusion of stationary components e.g. the tower, angle of approach and uncertainty. 10 models were cited in the literature and of these, all included a probability of collision of a single bird colliding with a wind turbine during passage through the rotor swept area, and the majority included a measure of the number of birds at risk. 7 out of the 10 models calculated the probability of birds colliding, whilst the remainder used a constant. We identified four approaches to calculate the probability of collision and these were used by others. 6 of the 10 models were deterministic and included the most frequently used models in the UK, with only 4 including variation or uncertainty in some way, the most recent using Bayesian methods. Despite their appeal, CRMs have their limitations and can be ‘data hungry’ as well as assuming much about bird movement and behaviour. As data become available, these assumptions should be tested to ensure that CRMs are functioning to adequately answer the questions posed by the wind energy sector. - Highlights: • We highlighted ten models available to assess avian collision risk. • Only 4 of the models included variability or uncertainty. • Collision risk models have limitations and can be ‘data hungry’. • It is vital that the most appropriate model is used for a given task.

  12. The use of models to assess environmental impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gustafson, P.F.

    1978-01-01

    Environmental impacts will include the effects on man as well as on other major segments of the natural or indigenous ecosystems. In their present state of development, the models used for environmental impact analysis give at least a semiquantitative estimate of the magnitude of such impacts. The methods used in the development of models are given, and their strengths and weaknesses are described. The relationship between predictive, before-the-fact models, and monitoring programs conducted during facility operation are also discussed

  13. Assessing climate change impact by integrated hydrological modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lajer Hojberg, Anker; Jørgen Henriksen, Hans; Olsen, Martin; der Keur Peter, van; Seaby, Lauren Paige; Troldborg, Lars; Sonnenborg, Torben; Refsgaard, Jens Christian

    2013-04-01

    Future climate may have a profound effect on the freshwater cycle, which must be taken into consideration by water management for future planning. Developments in the future climate are nevertheless uncertain, thus adding to the challenge of managing an uncertain system. To support the water managers at various levels in Denmark, the national water resources model (DK-model) (Højberg et al., 2012; Stisen et al., 2012) was used to propagate future climate to hydrological response under considerations of the main sources of uncertainty. The DK-model is a physically based and fully distributed model constructed on the basis of the MIKE SHE/MIKE11 model system describing groundwater and surface water systems and the interaction between the domains. The model has been constructed for the entire 43.000 km2 land area of Denmark only excluding minor islands. Future climate from General Circulation Models (GCM) was downscaled by Regional Climate Models (RCM) by a distribution-based scaling method (Seaby et al., 2012). The same dataset was used to train all combinations of GCM-RCMs and they were found to represent the mean and variance at the seasonal basis equally well. Changes in hydrological response were computed by comparing the short term development from the period 1990 - 2010 to 2021 - 2050, which is the time span relevant for water management. To account for uncertainty in future climate predictions, hydrological response from the DK-model using nine combinations of GCMs and RCMs was analysed for two catchments representing the various hydrogeological conditions in Denmark. Three GCM-RCM combinations displaying high, mean and low future impacts were selected as representative climate models for which climate impact studies were carried out for the entire country. Parameter uncertainty was addressed by sensitivity analysis and was generally found to be of less importance compared to the uncertainty spanned by the GCM-RCM combinations. Analysis of the simulations

  14. Core Organizational Stakeholder Impact – An assessment model

    OpenAIRE

    Carvalho, João M. S.

    2013-01-01

    Measurement of organizational social impact is a pressing issue in corporate social responsibility research. This paper proposes an alternative measurement model – Core Organizational Stakeholder Impact (COSI) – based on economic, legal and ethical responsibilities of organizations. The model allows understanding organizational social footprint, i.e., how organizations impact each stakeholder. It has 40 indicators, easy to apply, dividing internal and external stakeholders in equa...

  15. Energy technology impacts on agriculture with a bibliography of models for impact assessment on crop ecosystems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rupp, E.M.; Luxmoore, R.J.; Parzyck, D.C.

    1979-09-01

    Possible impacts of energy technologies on agriculture are evaluated, and some of the available simulation models that can be used for predictive purposes are identified. An overview of energy technologies and impacts on the environment is presented to provide a framework for the commentary on the models. Coal combustion is shown to have major impacts on the environment and these will continue into the next century according to current Department of Energy projections. Air pollution effects will thus remain as the major impacts on crop ecosystems. Two hundred reports were evaluated, representing a wide range of models increasing in complexity from mathematical functions (fitted to data) through parametric models (which represent phenomena without describing the mechanisms) to mechanistic models (based on physical, chemical, and physiological principles). Many models were viewed as suitable for adaptation to technology assessment through the incorporation of representative dose-response relationships. It is clear that in many cases available models cannot be taken and directly applied in technology assessment. Very few models of air pollutant-crop interactions were identified, even though there is a considerable data base of pollutant effects on crops.

  16. Concepts, methods and models to assess environmental impact

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pentreath, R.J.

    2002-01-01

    individual sites, is also planned in Canada. A somewhat conceptually different approach is that of an attempt to develop a hierarchical system for environmental protection based on a narrowly defined set of Reference Fauna and Flora analogous to that of Reference Man - consisting of defined dose models, data sets to estimate exposures, and data on biological effects, to provide a set of 'derived consideration levels' of dose-effect relationships for individual fauna and flora that could be used to help decision making (along with other relevant biological information) in different circumstances. Research work is also underway to produce systematic frameworks - also using a 'reference fauna and flora approach' - for assessing environmental impact in specific geographic areas, such as European and Arctic ecosystems. (author)

  17. The modelling and assessment of whale-watching impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    New, Leslie; Hall, Ailsa J.; Harcourt, Robert; Kaufman, Greg; Parsons, E.C.M.; Pearson, Heidi C.; Cosentino, A. Mel; Schick, Robert S

    2015-01-01

    In recent years there has been significant interest in modelling cumulative effects and the population consequences of individual changes in cetacean behaviour and physiology due to disturbance. One potential source of disturbance that has garnered particular interest is whale-watching. Though perceived as ‘green’ or eco-friendly tourism, there is evidence that whale-watching can result in statistically significant and biologically meaningful changes in cetacean behaviour, raising the question whether whale-watching is in fact a long term sustainable activity. However, an assessment of the impacts of whale-watching on cetaceans requires an understanding of the potential behavioural and physiological effects, data to effectively address the question and suitable modelling techniques. Here, we review the current state of knowledge on the viability of long-term whale-watching, as well as logistical limitations and potential opportunities. We conclude that an integrated, coordinated approach will be needed to further understanding of the possible effects of whale-watching on cetaceans.

  18. Quantifying the impact of model inaccuracy in climate change impact assessment studies using an agro-hydrological model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Droogers, P.; Loon, van A.F.; Immerzeel, W.W.

    2008-01-01

    Numerical simulation models are frequently applied to assess the impact of climate change on hydrology and agriculture. A common hypothesis is that unavoidable model errors are reflected in the reference situation as well as in the climate change situation so that by comparing reference to scenario

  19. Downscaling climate model output for water resources impacts assessment (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maurer, E. P.; Pierce, D. W.; Cayan, D. R.

    2013-12-01

    Water agencies in the U.S. and around the globe are beginning to wrap climate change projections into their planning procedures, recognizing that ongoing human-induced changes to hydrology can affect water management in significant ways. Future hydrology changes are derived using global climate model (GCM) projections, though their output is at a spatial scale that is too coarse to meet the needs of those concerned with local and regional impacts. Those investigating local impacts have employed a range of techniques for downscaling, the process of translating GCM output to a more locally-relevant spatial scale. Recent projects have produced libraries of publicly-available downscaled climate projections, enabling managers, researchers and others to focus on impacts studies, drawing from a shared pool of fine-scale climate data. Besides the obvious advantage to data users, who no longer need to develop expertise in downscaling prior to examining impacts, the use of the downscaled data by hundreds of people has allowed a crowdsourcing approach to examining the data. The wide variety of applications employed by different users has revealed characteristics not discovered during the initial data set production. This has led to a deeper look at the downscaling methods, including the assumptions and effect of bias correction of GCM output. Here new findings are presented related to the assumption of stationarity in the relationships between large- and fine-scale climate, as well as the impact of quantile mapping bias correction on precipitation trends. The validity of these assumptions can influence the interpretations of impacts studies using data derived using these standard statistical methods and help point the way to improved methods.

  20. Regional Persistent Organic Pollutants' Environmental Impact Assessment and Control Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jurgis Staniskis

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available The sources of formation, environmental distribution and fate of persistent organic pollutants (POPs are increasingly seen as topics to be addressed and solved at the global scale. Therefore, there are already two international agreements concerning persistent organic pollutants: the Protocol of 1998 to the 1979 Convention on the Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution on Persistent Organic Pollutants (Aarhus Protocol; and the Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants. For the assessment of environmental pollution of POPs, for the risk assessment, for the evaluation of new pollutants as potential candidates to be included in the POPs list of the Stokholmo or/and Aarhus Protocol, a set of different models are developed or under development. Multimedia models help describe and understand environmental processes leading to global contamination through POPs and actual risk to the environment and human health. However, there is a lack of the tools based on a systematic and integrated approach to POPs management difficulties in the region.

  1. Assessing dengue vaccination impact: Model challenges and future directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Recker, Mario; Vannice, Kirsten; Hombach, Joachim; Jit, Mark; Simmons, Cameron P

    2016-08-31

    In response to the sharp rise in the global burden caused by dengue virus (DENV) over the last few decades, the WHO has set out three specific key objectives in its disease control strategy: (i) to estimate the true burden of dengue by 2015; (ii) a reduction in dengue mortality by at least 50% by 2020 (used as a baseline); and (iii) a reduction in dengue morbidity by at least 25% by 2020. Although various elements will all play crucial parts in achieving this goal, from diagnosis and case management to integrated surveillance and outbreak response, sustainable vector control, vaccine implementation and finally operational and implementation research, it seems clear that new tools (e.g. a safe and effective vaccine and/or effective vector control) are key to success. The first dengue vaccine was licensed in December 2015, Dengvaxia® (CYD-TDV) developed by Sanofi Pasteur. The WHO has provided guidance on the use of CYD-TDV in endemic countries, for which there are a variety of considerations beyond the risk-benefit evaluation done by regulatory authorities, including public health impact and cost-effectiveness. Population-level vaccine impact and economic and financial aspects are two issues that can potentially be considered by means of mathematical modelling, especially for new products for which empirical data are still lacking. In December 2014 a meeting was convened by the WHO in order to revisit the current status of dengue transmission models and their utility for public health decision-making. Here, we report on the main points of discussion and the conclusions of this meeting, as well as next steps for maximising the use of mathematical models for vaccine decision-making. Copyright © 2016.

  2. Hybrid LCA model for assessing the embodied environmental impacts of buildings in South Korea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jang, Minho, E-mail: minmin40@hanmail.net [Asset Management Division, Mate Plus Co., Ltd., 9th Fl., Financial News Bldg. 24-5 Yeouido-dong, Yeongdeungpo-gu, Seoul, 150-877 (Korea, Republic of); Hong, Taehoon, E-mail: hong7@yonsei.ac.kr [Department of Architectural Engineering, Yonsei University, Seoul, 120-749 (Korea, Republic of); Ji, Changyoon, E-mail: chnagyoon@yonsei.ac.kr [Department of Architectural Engineering, Yonsei University, Seoul, 120-749 (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-01-15

    The assessment of the embodied environmental impacts of buildings can help decision-makers plan environment-friendly buildings and reduce environmental impacts. For a more comprehensive assessment of the embodied environmental impacts of buildings, a hybrid life cycle assessment model was developed in this study. The developed model can assess the embodied environmental impacts (global warming, ozone layer depletion, acidification, eutrophication, photochemical ozone creation, abiotic depletion, and human toxicity) generated directly and indirectly in the material manufacturing, transportation, and construction phases. To demonstrate the application and validity of the developed model, the environmental impacts of an elementary school building were assessed using the developed model and compared with the results of a previous model used in a case study. The embodied environmental impacts from the previous model were lower than those from the developed model by 4.6–25.2%. Particularly, human toxicity potential (13 kg C{sub 6}H{sub 6} eq.) calculated by the previous model was much lower (1965 kg C{sub 6}H{sub 6} eq.) than what was calculated by the developed model. The results indicated that the developed model can quantify the embodied environmental impacts of buildings more comprehensively, and can be used by decision-makers as a tool for selecting environment-friendly buildings. - Highlights: • The model was developed to assess the embodied environmental impacts of buildings. • The model evaluates GWP, ODP, AP, EP, POCP, ADP, and HTP as environmental impacts. • The model presents more comprehensive results than the previous model by 4.6–100%. • The model can present the HTP of buildings, which the previous models cannot do. • Decision-makers can use the model for selecting environment-friendly buildings.

  3. Hybrid LCA model for assessing the embodied environmental impacts of buildings in South Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jang, Minho; Hong, Taehoon; Ji, Changyoon

    2015-01-01

    The assessment of the embodied environmental impacts of buildings can help decision-makers plan environment-friendly buildings and reduce environmental impacts. For a more comprehensive assessment of the embodied environmental impacts of buildings, a hybrid life cycle assessment model was developed in this study. The developed model can assess the embodied environmental impacts (global warming, ozone layer depletion, acidification, eutrophication, photochemical ozone creation, abiotic depletion, and human toxicity) generated directly and indirectly in the material manufacturing, transportation, and construction phases. To demonstrate the application and validity of the developed model, the environmental impacts of an elementary school building were assessed using the developed model and compared with the results of a previous model used in a case study. The embodied environmental impacts from the previous model were lower than those from the developed model by 4.6–25.2%. Particularly, human toxicity potential (13 kg C 6 H 6 eq.) calculated by the previous model was much lower (1965 kg C 6 H 6 eq.) than what was calculated by the developed model. The results indicated that the developed model can quantify the embodied environmental impacts of buildings more comprehensively, and can be used by decision-makers as a tool for selecting environment-friendly buildings. - Highlights: • The model was developed to assess the embodied environmental impacts of buildings. • The model evaluates GWP, ODP, AP, EP, POCP, ADP, and HTP as environmental impacts. • The model presents more comprehensive results than the previous model by 4.6–100%. • The model can present the HTP of buildings, which the previous models cannot do. • Decision-makers can use the model for selecting environment-friendly buildings

  4. Environmental impact assessment of decommissioning treatment about radioactive model plant waste ore storage site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bei Xinyu

    2012-01-01

    Aiming at decommissioning treatment project of radioactive model plant waste ore storage site, based on the detailed investigations of source terms and project description, systematic environmental impacts have been identified. The environmental impacts both during decommissioning treatment, radioactive waste transportation and after treatment are assessed. Some specific environmental protection measures are proposed so as to minimize the adverse environmental impacts. (author)

  5. Modelling future impacts of air pollution using the multi-scale UK Integrated Assessment Model (UKIAM).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oxley, Tim; Dore, Anthony J; ApSimon, Helen; Hall, Jane; Kryza, Maciej

    2013-11-01

    Integrated assessment modelling has evolved to support policy development in relation to air pollutants and greenhouse gases by providing integrated simulation tools able to produce quick and realistic representations of emission scenarios and their environmental impacts without the need to re-run complex atmospheric dispersion models. The UK Integrated Assessment Model (UKIAM) has been developed to investigate strategies for reducing UK emissions by bringing together information on projected UK emissions of SO2, NOx, NH3, PM10 and PM2.5, atmospheric dispersion, criteria for protection of ecosystems, urban air quality and human health, and data on potential abatement measures to reduce emissions, which may subsequently be linked to associated analyses of costs and benefits. We describe the multi-scale model structure ranging from continental to roadside, UK emission sources, atmospheric dispersion of emissions, implementation of abatement measures, integration with European-scale modelling, and environmental impacts. The model generates outputs from a national perspective which are used to evaluate alternative strategies in relation to emissions, deposition patterns, air quality metrics and ecosystem critical load exceedance. We present a selection of scenarios in relation to the 2020 Business-As-Usual projections and identify potential further reductions beyond those currently being planned. © 2013.

  6. Application for approval of the Cold Lake Expansion Project: volume 2: environmental impact assessment: Part 1: biophysical and resource use assessment. Part 2: impact model descriptions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Green, J.; Eccles, R.; Hegmann, G.; Morrison, L.; Salter, R.; van Egmond, T.; Vonk, P.; Ash, G.; Crowther, R.; Dance, T.; Edwards, W.; Veldman, W.

    1997-02-01

    An environmental assessment of the Cold Lake Expansion Project has been conducted to identify major issues of concern by public and government agencies, to determine means to eliminate or reduce those impacts, and to recommend any further efforts required to obtain missing information or monitor impacts. Volume 2 of the environmental impact assessment is divided into two parts. Part 1 (biophysical and resource use assessment) constitutes the primary environmental impact assessment document for the Cold Lake expansion project. It includes technical support documentation in regard to: (1) an assessment of noise impacts, (2) an assessment of greenhouse gas emissions, (3) a conceptual conservation and reclamation plan, (4) a historical resource impact assessment, and (5) a description of effects of oil spills on fish. Part 2 (impact model description) serves a reference document for part 1. It describes the approach taken in developing and assessing the impact models, discusses proposed methods for mitigation and management of residual impacts, and the recommended monitoring requirements for each of the major resource disciplines. The impact models describe the specific pathways through which impacts will occur as a result of interactions between project-related activities and important environmental components. 476 refs., 58 tabs., 23 figs

  7. An integrated model for the Environmental Impact Assessment of Highways in China

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cai, Hao

    2011-01-01

    In China, environmental issues caused by construction and operation of highway catch more and more attention, and thus environmental impact assessment of highway has become an important part of feasibility study. According to the Specifications for Environmental Impact Assessment of Highways...... in the People's Republic of China, this paper proposes an integrated model for Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) of highway. The model has two main characteristics. Firstly, the whole highway is divided into several sections, and then weight of each section is distributed by its importance. Secondly...

  8. Mathematical model for water quality impact assessment and its computer application in coal mine water

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sundararajan, M.; Chakraborty, M.K.; Gupta, J.P.; Saxena, N.C.; Dhar, B.B.

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents a mathematical model to assess the Water Quality Impact in coal mine or in river system by accurate and rational method. Algorithm, flowchart and computer programme have been developed upon this model to assess the quality of coal mine water. 3 refs., 2 figs., 2 tabs

  9. Multi-model approach to assess the impact of climate change on runoff

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dams, J.; Nossent, J.; Senbeta, T. B.; Willems, P.; Batelaan, O.

    2015-10-01

    The assessment of climate change impacts on hydrology is subject to uncertainties related to the climate change scenarios, stochastic uncertainties of the hydrological model and structural uncertainties of the hydrological model. This paper focuses on the contribution of structural uncertainty of hydrological models to the overall uncertainty of the climate change impact assessment. To quantify the structural uncertainty of hydrological models, four physically based hydrological models (SWAT, PRMS and a semi- and fully distributed version of the WetSpa model) are set up for a catchment in Belgium. Each model is calibrated using four different objective functions. Three climate change scenarios with a high, mean and low hydrological impact are statistically perturbed from a large ensemble of climate change scenarios and are used to force the hydrological models. This methodology allows assessing and comparing the uncertainty introduced by the climate change scenarios with the uncertainty introduced by the hydrological model structure. Results show that the hydrological model structure introduces a large uncertainty on both the average monthly discharge and the extreme peak and low flow predictions under the climate change scenarios. For the low impact climate change scenario, the uncertainty range of the mean monthly runoff is comparable to the range of these runoff values in the reference period. However, for the mean and high impact scenarios, this range is significantly larger. The uncertainty introduced by the climate change scenarios is larger than the uncertainty due to the hydrological model structure for the low and mean hydrological impact scenarios, but the reverse is true for the high impact climate change scenario. The mean and high impact scenarios project increasing peak discharges, while the low impact scenario projects increasing peak discharges only for peak events with return periods larger than 1.6 years. All models suggest for all scenarios a

  10. State-of-the-art and research needs for oil spill impact assessment modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    French-McCay, D.

    2009-01-01

    Many oil spill models focus on trajectory and fate in aquatic environments. Models designed to address subsurface oil concentrations typically overlay fates model concentration results on maps or grids of biological distributions to assess impacts. This paper discussed a state-of-the-art biological effects model designed to evaluate the impacts and dose of oil spill hydrocarbons on aquatic biota including birds, mammals, reptiles, fish, invertebrates and plants. The biological effects model was coupled to an oil trajectory and fates spill impact model application package (SIMAP) in order to obtain accurate spatial and temporal quantifications of oil distributions and hydrocarbon component concentrations. Processes simulated in the model included slick spreading, evaporation of volatiles from surface oil, transport on the water surface, and various types of oil dispersion and emulsification. The design of the model was discussed, as well as strategies used for applying the model for hindcasts and risk assessments. 204 refs., 3 tabs., 5 figs

  11. State-of-the-art and research needs for oil spill impact assessment modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    French-McCay, D. [Applied Science Associates Inc., South Kingstown, RI (United States)

    2009-07-01

    Many oil spill models focus on trajectory and fate in aquatic environments. Models designed to address subsurface oil concentrations typically overlay fates model concentration results on maps or grids of biological distributions to assess impacts. This paper discussed a state-of-the-art biological effects model designed to evaluate the impacts and dose of oil spill hydrocarbons on aquatic biota including birds, mammals, reptiles, fish, invertebrates and plants. The biological effects model was coupled to an oil trajectory and fates spill impact model application package (SIMAP) in order to obtain accurate spatial and temporal quantifications of oil distributions and hydrocarbon component concentrations. Processes simulated in the model included slick spreading, evaporation of volatiles from surface oil, transport on the water surface, and various types of oil dispersion and emulsification. The design of the model was discussed, as well as strategies used for applying the model for hindcasts and risk assessments. 204 refs., 3 tabs., 5 figs.

  12. Impact assessment modelling of matter-less stressors in the context of Life Cycle Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cucurachi, Stefano

    2014-01-01

    In the last three decades, the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) framework has grown to establish itself as the leading tool for the assessment of the environmental impacts of product systems.LCA studies are now conducted globally both in and outside the academia and also used as a basis for policy

  13. Assessment of the Value, Impact, and Validity of the Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) Suite of Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Billman, L.; Keyser, D.

    2013-08-01

    The Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) models, developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), use input-output methodology to estimate gross (not net) jobs and economic impacts of building and operating selected types of renewable electricity generation and fuel plants. This analysis provides the DOE with an assessment of the value, impact, and validity of the JEDI suite of models. While the models produce estimates of jobs, earnings, and economic output, this analysis focuses only on jobs estimates. This validation report includes an introduction to JEDI models, an analysis of the value and impact of the JEDI models, and an analysis of the validity of job estimates generated by JEDI model through comparison to other modeled estimates and comparison to empirical, observed jobs data as reported or estimated for a commercial project, a state, or a region.

  14. Impact Assessment of Abiotic Resources in LCA: Quantitative Comparison of Selected Characterization Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rørbech, Jakob Thaysen; Vadenbo, Carl; Hellweg, Stefanie

    2014-01-01

    Resources have received significant attention in recent years resulting in development of a wide range of resource depletion indicators within life cycle assessment (LCA). Understanding the differences in assessment principles used to derive these indicators and the effects on the impact assessment...... results is critical for indicator selection and interpretation of the results. Eleven resource depletion methods were evaluated quantitatively with respect to resource coverage, characterization factors (CF), impact contributions from individual resources, and total impact scores. We included 2247...... groups, according to method focus and modeling approach, to aid method selection within LCA....

  15. Toward linking demographic and economic models for impact assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, C.A.; Meenan, C.D.

    1991-01-01

    One of the objectives of the Yucca Mountain Project, in Southern Nevada, is to evaluate the effects of the development of a high-level nuclear waste repository. As described in the Section 175 Report to the Congress of the US, the temporal scope of this repository project encompasses approximately 70 years and includes four phases: Site characterization and licensing, construction, operation, and closure and decommissioning. If retrieval of the waste were to be required, the temporal scope of the repository project could be extended to approximately 100 years. The study of the potential socioeconomic effects of this project is the foundation for this paper. This paper focuses on the economic and demographic aspects and a possible method to interface the two. First, the authors briefly discuss general socioeconomic modeling theory from a county level view point, as well as methods for the apportionment of county level data to sub-county areas. Next, the authors describe the unique economic and demographic conditions which exist in Nevada at both the state and county levels. Finally, the authors evaluate a possible procedure for analyzing repository effects at a sub-county level; this involves discussion of an interface linking the economic and demographic aspects, which is based on the reconciliation of supply and demand for labor. The authors conclude that the basis for further model development may rely on the interaction of supply and demand to produce change in wage rates. These changes in expected wages should be a justification for allocating economic migrants (who may respond to Yucca Mountain Project development) into various communities

  16. High-resolution assessment of land use impacts on biodiversity in life cycle assessment using species habitat suitability models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Baan, Laura; Curran, Michael; Rondinini, Carlo; Visconti, Piero; Hellweg, Stefanie; Koellner, Thomas

    2015-02-17

    Agricultural land use is a main driver of global biodiversity loss. The assessment of land use impacts in decision-support tools such as life cycle assessment (LCA) requires spatially explicit models, but existing approaches are either not spatially differentiated or modeled at very coarse scales (e.g., biomes or ecoregions). In this paper, we develop a high-resolution (900 m) assessment method for land use impacts on biodiversity based on habitat suitability models (HSM) of mammal species. This method considers potential land use effects on individual species, and impacts are weighted by the species' conservation status and global rarity. We illustrate the method using a case study of crop production in East Africa, but the underlying HSMs developed by the Global Mammals Assessment are available globally. We calculate impacts of three major export crops and compare the results to two previously developed methods (focusing on local and regional impacts, respectively) to assess the relevance of the methodological innovations proposed in this paper. The results highlight hotspots of product-related biodiversity impacts that help characterize the links among agricultural production, consumption, and biodiversity loss.

  17. Building a model based on scientific consensus for Life Cycle Impact Assessment of chemicals:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hauschild, Michael Zwicky; Huijbregts, Mark; Jolliet, Olivier

    2008-01-01

    Achieving consensus among scientists is often a challenge - particularly in model development. In this article we describe a recent scientific consensus-building process for Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) models applied to chemical emissions - including the strategy, execution, and results...

  18. Enhanced science-stakeholder communication to improve ecosystem model performances for climate change impact assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jönsson, Anna Maria; Anderbrant, Olle; Holmér, Jennie; Johansson, Jacob; Schurgers, Guy; Svensson, Glenn P; Smith, Henrik G

    2015-04-01

    In recent years, climate impact assessments of relevance to the agricultural and forestry sectors have received considerable attention. Current ecosystem models commonly capture the effect of a warmer climate on biomass production, but they rarely sufficiently capture potential losses caused by pests, pathogens and extreme weather events. In addition, alternative management regimes may not be integrated in the models. A way to improve the quality of climate impact assessments is to increase the science-stakeholder collaboration, and in a two-way dialog link empirical experience and impact modelling with policy and strategies for sustainable management. In this paper we give a brief overview of different ecosystem modelling methods, discuss how to include ecological and management aspects, and highlight the importance of science-stakeholder communication. By this, we hope to stimulate a discussion among the science-stakeholder communities on how to quantify the potential for climate change adaptation by improving the realism in the models.

  19. Identifying best existing practice for characterization modeling in life cycle impact assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hauschild, Michael Zwicky; Goedkoop, Mark; Guinée, Jeroen

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: Life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) is a field of active development. The last decade has seen prolific publication of new impact assessment methods covering many different impact categories and providing characterization factors that often deviate from each other for the same substance...... and impact. The LCA standard ISO 14044 is rather general and unspecific in its requirements and offers little help to the LCA practitioner who needs to make a choice. With the aim to identify the best among existing characterization models and provide recommendations to the LCA practitioner, a study...... was performed for the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission (JRC). Methods Existing LCIA methods were collected and their individual characterization models identified at both midpoint and endpoint levels and supplemented with other environmental models of potential use for LCIA. No new developments...

  20. Impact assessment revisited

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thiele, Jan; Kollmann, Johannes Christian; Markussen, Bo

    2010-01-01

    ; and (4) the total invaded range is an inappropriate measure for quantifying regional impact because the habitat area available for invasion can vary markedly among invasive species. Mathematical models and empirical data using an invasive alien plant species (Heracleum mantegazzianum) indicate......The theoretical underpinnings of the assessment of invasive alien species impacts need to be improved. At present most approaches are unreliable to quantify impact at regional scales and do not allow for comparison of different invasive species. There are four basic problems that need...... and we discuss the quantification of the invaded range. These improvements are crucial for impact assessment with the overall aim of prioritizing management of invasive species....

  1. Modeling prescribed burning experiments and assessing the fire impacts on local to regional air quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, L.; Baker, K. R.; Napelenok, S. L.; Elleman, R. A.; Urbanski, S. P.

    2016-12-01

    Biomass burning, including wildfires and prescribed burns, strongly impact the global carbon cycle and are of increasing concern due to the potential impacts on ambient air quality. This modelling study focuses on the evolution of carbonaceous compounds during a prescribed burning experiment and assesses the impacts of burning on local to regional air quality. The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model is used to conduct 4 and 2 km grid resolution simulations of prescribed burning experiments in southeast Washington state and western Idaho state in summer 2013. The ground and airborne measurements from the field experiment are used to evaluate the model performance in capturing surface and aloft impacts from the burning events. Phase partitioning of organic compounds in the plume are studied as it is a crucial step towards understanding the fate of carbonaceous compounds. The sensitivities of ambient concentrations and deposition to emissions are conducted for organic carbon, elemental carbon and ozone to estimate the impacts of fire on air quality.

  2. Toward a consistent modeling framework to assess multi-sectoral climate impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monier, Erwan; Paltsev, Sergey; Sokolov, Andrei; Chen, Y-H Henry; Gao, Xiang; Ejaz, Qudsia; Couzo, Evan; Schlosser, C Adam; Dutkiewicz, Stephanie; Fant, Charles; Scott, Jeffery; Kicklighter, David; Morris, Jennifer; Jacoby, Henry; Prinn, Ronald; Haigh, Martin

    2018-02-13

    Efforts to estimate the physical and economic impacts of future climate change face substantial challenges. To enrich the currently popular approaches to impact analysis-which involve evaluation of a damage function or multi-model comparisons based on a limited number of standardized scenarios-we propose integrating a geospatially resolved physical representation of impacts into a coupled human-Earth system modeling framework. Large internationally coordinated exercises cannot easily respond to new policy targets and the implementation of standard scenarios across models, institutions and research communities can yield inconsistent estimates. Here, we argue for a shift toward the use of a self-consistent integrated modeling framework to assess climate impacts, and discuss ways the integrated assessment modeling community can move in this direction. We then demonstrate the capabilities of such a modeling framework by conducting a multi-sectoral assessment of climate impacts under a range of consistent and integrated economic and climate scenarios that are responsive to new policies and business expectations.

  3. Modelling the inventory and impact assessment of partitioning and transmutation approaches to spent nuclear fuel management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoggett-Jones, C.; Robbins, C.; Gettinby, G.; Blythe, S.

    2002-01-01

    An inventory modelling and impact assessment system to investigate the potential effects of partitioning and transmutation is proposed. It is founded on a mass based inventory analysis using the principles of basic nuclear physics and the international standards for assessing radiological health effects. It is specific to the back-end of the nuclear fuel cycle and is applied to four alternative spent fuel management strategies. The system accounts for the dynamic nature of post-irradiation scenarios and is being used to develop software for use within the nuclear power industry. Four example waste-disposal options are considered using the method. Impact assessments and parameter sensitivity analyses are presented

  4. Modelling the inventory and impact assessment of partitioning and transmutation approaches to spent nuclear fuel management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoggett-Jones, C. E-mail: craig@stams.strath.ac.uk; Robbins, C.; Gettinby, G.; Blythe, S

    2002-03-01

    An inventory modelling and impact assessment system to investigate the potential effects of partitioning and transmutation is proposed. It is founded on a mass based inventory analysis using the principles of basic nuclear physics and the international standards for assessing radiological health effects. It is specific to the back-end of the nuclear fuel cycle and is applied to four alternative spent fuel management strategies. The system accounts for the dynamic nature of post-irradiation scenarios and is being used to develop software for use within the nuclear power industry. Four example waste-disposal options are considered using the method. Impact assessments and parameter sensitivity analyses are presented.

  5. Assessing the Impacts of Non-Ricardian Households in an Estimated New Keynesian DSGE Model

    OpenAIRE

    Ricardo Marto

    2014-01-01

    Using Bayesian maximum likelihood and data for Portugal, I estimate a New Keynesian DSGE model allowing for the presence of non-Ricardian households and test the stability of the model's prediction when the fraction of liquidity-constrained households changes. In particular, I assess the impacts on: (i) the model parameters posterior distributions; (ii) the impulse responses to six types of structural shocks; and (iii) the sources of fluctuations in output, inflation and the nominal interest ...

  6. Assessing impact of changes in human resources features on enterprise activities: simulation model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kalmykova Svetlana

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The need for creating programs of human resources development is shown; the impact of these programs on organizational effectiveness is taken into account. The stages of development tools and HRD programs on the basis of cognitive modelling are disclosed; these stages will help assess the impact of HR-practices on the key indicators of organization activity at the design stage. The method of HR-practices’ pre-selection in professional development of the employees is represented.

  7. Enhanced science-stakeholder communication to improve ecosystem model performances for climate change impact assessments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jonsson, Anna Maria; Anderbrant, Olle; Holmer, Jennie

    2015-01-01

    In recent years, climate impact assessments of relevance to the agricultural and forestry sectors have received considerable attention. Current ecosystem models commonly capture the effect of a warmer climate on biomass production, but they rarely sufficiently capture potential losses caused...... by pests, pathogens and extreme weather events. In addition, alternative management regimes may not be integrated in the models. A way to improve the quality of climate impact assessments is to increase the science–stakeholder collaboration, and in a two-way dialog link empirical experience and impact...... a discussion among the science–stakeholder communities on how to quantify the potential for climate change adaptation by improving the realism in the models....

  8. Assessing Impacts of Climate Change on Forests: The State of Biological Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dale, V. H.; Rauscher, H. M.

    1993-04-06

    Models that address the impacts to forests of climate change are reviewed by four levels of biological organization: global, regional or landscape, community, and tree. The models are compared as to their ability to assess changes in greenhouse gas flux, land use, maps of forest type or species composition, forest resource productivity, forest health, biodiversity, and wildlife habitat. No one model can address all of these impacts, but landscape transition models and regional vegetation and land-use models consider the largest number of impacts. Developing landscape vegetation dynamics models of functional groups is suggested as a means to integrate the theory of both landscape ecology and individual tree responses to climate change. Risk assessment methodologies can be adapted to deal with the impacts of climate change at various spatial and temporal scales. Four areas of research development are identified: (1) linking socioeconomic and ecologic models, (2) interfacing forest models at different scales, (3) obtaining data on susceptibility of trees and forest to changes in climate and disturbance regimes, and (4) relating information from different scales.

  9. Assessing climate impact on reinforced concrete durability with a multi-physics model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Michel, Alexander; Flint, Madeleine M.

    to shorter-term fluctuations in boundary conditions and therefore may underestimate climate change impacts. A highly sensitive fully-coupled, validated, multi-physics model for heat, moisture and ion transport and corrosion was used to assess a reinforced concrete structure located in coastal Norfolk...

  10. Comparison of integrated assessment models: Carbon price impacts on U.S. energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilkerson, Jordan T.; Leibowicz, Benjamin D.; Turner, Delavane D.; Weyant, John P.

    2015-01-01

    Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are increasingly used to evaluate carbon policy impacts on energy structure, but different models can yield considerably different results. This paper seeks to frame model results for policymakers and other consumers of model outputs. In this analysis we compare three models: GCAM, MERGE, and EPPA. We apply diagnostic carbon price scenarios, such as ramps and shocks, to identify key differences in model behavior that drive inter-model variability in projected policy impacts on the U.S. energy system. We report model results using several economic parameterizations and find that variation in carbon emissions across models results primarily from differences in carbon intensity of energy supply. These differences arise because models include different low-carbon energy technology options and vary widely in how flexible the electricity supply sector is at adapting to a change in policy. The timing of emissions abatement is also strongly influenced by whether the model is a simulation or an inter-temporal optimization scheme and the amount of foresight exhibited in the model. Our analysis demonstrates the usefulness of novel IAM diagnostic indicators and clarifies model features that are highly relevant for consumers of model results. - Highlights: • We compare several IAMs and highlight differences between models types. • Structural difference between models leads to significantly different energy mix. • Primary driver of inter-model variability is changes in carbon intensity. • Intensity driven by technology options, constraints on adoption, and substitutability. • Policymakers need to understand model framework, inputs, and assumptions

  11. A paradigm shift toward a consistent modeling framework to assess climate impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monier, E.; Paltsev, S.; Sokolov, A. P.; Fant, C.; Chen, H.; Gao, X.; Schlosser, C. A.; Scott, J. R.; Dutkiewicz, S.; Ejaz, Q.; Couzo, E. A.; Prinn, R. G.; Haigh, M.

    2017-12-01

    Estimates of physical and economic impacts of future climate change are subject to substantial challenges. To enrich the currently popular approaches of assessing climate impacts by evaluating a damage function or by multi-model comparisons based on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), we focus here on integrating impacts into a self-consistent coupled human and Earth system modeling framework that includes modules that represent multiple physical impacts. In a sample application we show that this framework is capable of investigating the physical impacts of climate change and socio-economic stressors. The projected climate impacts vary dramatically across the globe in a set of scenarios with global mean warming ranging between 2.4°C and 3.6°C above pre-industrial by 2100. Unabated emissions lead to substantial sea level rise, acidification that impacts the base of the oceanic food chain, air pollution that exceeds health standards by tenfold, water stress that impacts an additional 1 to 2 billion people globally and agricultural productivity that decreases substantially in many parts of the world. We compare the outcomes from these forward-looking scenarios against the common goal described by the target-driven scenario of 2°C, which results in much smaller impacts. It is challenging for large internationally coordinated exercises to respond quickly to new policy targets. We propose that a paradigm shift toward a self-consistent modeling framework to assess climate impacts is needed to produce information relevant to evolving global climate policy and mitigation strategies in a timely way.

  12. [Exploring models for the assessment of the economic, social, political, and scientific impact of health research].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macías-Angel, Beatriz; Agudelo-Calderón, Carlos A

    2015-05-01

    Health research produces effects on the health of populations. This document approaches the frameworks and the models used by developed countries to assess the impact of health research through documentary analysis of research with the highest impact. With this, it was possible to identify two guiding axes of analysis: one having to do with focus, and the other having to do with emphasis. With these, the published models, their uses, their reach, and their origins are related. Our study brings awareness to the features they have and the areas in which Colombia could implement them. We found that the framework for evaluating health research known as the "payback model" is a model for monitoring research that tracks the process and research results with multidimensional categorization of the impacts of research.

  13. The AgMIP Wheat Pilot: A multi-model approach for climate change impact assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asseng, S.

    2012-12-01

    Asseng S., F. Ewert, C. Rosenzweig, J.W. Jones, J.L. Hatfield, A. Ruane, K.J. Boote, P. Thorburn, R.P. Rötter, D. Cammarano, N. Brisson, B. Basso, P. Martre, D. Ripoche, P. Bertuzzi, P. Steduto, L. Heng, M.A. Semenov, P. Stratonovitch, C. Stockle, G. O'Leary, P.K. Aggarwal, S. Naresh Kumar, C. Izaurralde, J.W. White, L.A. Hunt, R. Grant, K.C. Kersebaum, T. Palosuo, J. Hooker, T. Osborne, J. Wolf, I. Supit, J.E. Olesen, J. Doltra, C. Nendel, S. Gayler, J. Ingwersen, E. Priesack, T. Streck, F. Tao, C. Müller, K. Waha, R. Goldberg, C. Angulo, I. Shcherbak, C. Biernath, D. Wallach, M. Travasso, A. Challinor. Abstract: Crop simulation models have been used to assess the impact of climate change on agriculture. These assessments are often carried out with a single model in a limited number of environments and without determining the uncertainty of simulated impacts. There is a need for a coordinated effort bringing together multiple modeling teams which has been recognized by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP; www.agmip.org). AgMIP aims to provide more robust estimates of climate impacts on crop yields and agricultural trade, including estimates of associated uncertainties. Here, we present the AgMIP Wheat Pilot Study, the most comprehensive model intercomparison of the response of wheat crops to climate change to date, including 27 wheat models. Crop model uncertainties in assessing climate change impacts are explored and compared with field experimental and Global Circulation Model uncertainties. Causes of impact uncertainties and ways to reduce these are discussed.

  14. Review of regional economic models with special reference to labor impact assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ferris, G.; Mason, B.

    1979-06-01

    This paper reviews several regional economic models and examines the capabilities of these models for assessing the total employment impacts of solar energy adoption. Five generic analytic methods are discussed: economic base analysis, shift-share analysis, demographic-economic interaction models, input-output analysis, and industrial location analysis. Ten regional models incorporating some aspect of these methods are reviewed. From the model review, the conclusion is drawn that there is no single model that fits all of the necessary criteria for planned research efforts. Models that appear to hold promise are the Economic Activity Analysis (EAA) Model, the Regional Industrial Multipliers System (RIMS), the Multiregion, Multi-industry (MRMI) Model, and the MULTIREGION model.

  15. Quantitative assessment of biological impact using transcriptomic data and mechanistic network models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomson, Ty M.; Sewer, Alain; Martin, Florian; Belcastro, Vincenzo; Frushour, Brian P.; Gebel, Stephan; Park, Jennifer; Schlage, Walter K.; Talikka, Marja; Vasilyev, Dmitry M.; Westra, Jurjen W.; Hoeng, Julia; Peitsch, Manuel C.

    2013-01-01

    Exposure to biologically active substances such as therapeutic drugs or environmental toxicants can impact biological systems at various levels, affecting individual molecules, signaling pathways, and overall cellular processes. The ability to derive mechanistic insights from the resulting system responses requires the integration of experimental measures with a priori knowledge about the system and the interacting molecules therein. We developed a novel systems biology-based methodology that leverages mechanistic network models and transcriptomic data to quantitatively assess the biological impact of exposures to active substances. Hierarchically organized network models were first constructed to provide a coherent framework for investigating the impact of exposures at the molecular, pathway and process levels. We then validated our methodology using novel and previously published experiments. For both in vitro systems with simple exposure and in vivo systems with complex exposures, our methodology was able to recapitulate known biological responses matching expected or measured phenotypes. In addition, the quantitative results were in agreement with experimental endpoint data for many of the mechanistic effects that were assessed, providing further objective confirmation of the approach. We conclude that our methodology evaluates the biological impact of exposures in an objective, systematic, and quantifiable manner, enabling the computation of a systems-wide and pan-mechanistic biological impact measure for a given active substance or mixture. Our results suggest that various fields of human disease research, from drug development to consumer product testing and environmental impact analysis, could benefit from using this methodology. - Highlights: • The impact of biologically active substances is quantified at multiple levels. • The systems-level impact integrates the perturbations of individual networks. • The networks capture the relationships between

  16. DYNAMO-HIA--a Dynamic Modeling tool for generic Health Impact Assessments.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefan K Lhachimi

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Currently, no standard tool is publicly available that allows researchers or policy-makers to quantify the impact of policies using epidemiological evidence within the causal framework of Health Impact Assessment (HIA. A standard tool should comply with three technical criteria (real-life population, dynamic projection, explicit risk-factor states and three usability criteria (modest data requirements, rich model output, generally accessible to be useful in the applied setting of HIA. With DYNAMO-HIA (Dynamic Modeling for Health Impact Assessment, we introduce such a generic software tool specifically designed to facilitate quantification in the assessment of the health impacts of policies. METHODS AND RESULTS: DYNAMO-HIA quantifies the impact of user-specified risk-factor changes on multiple diseases and in turn on overall population health, comparing one reference scenario with one or more intervention scenarios. The Markov-based modeling approach allows for explicit risk-factor states and simulation of a real-life population. A built-in parameter estimation module ensures that only standard population-level epidemiological evidence is required, i.e. data on incidence, prevalence, relative risks, and mortality. DYNAMO-HIA provides a rich output of summary measures--e.g. life expectancy and disease-free life expectancy--and detailed data--e.g. prevalences and mortality/survival rates--by age, sex, and risk-factor status over time. DYNAMO-HIA is controlled via a graphical user interface and is publicly available from the internet, ensuring general accessibility. We illustrate the use of DYNAMO-HIA with two example applications: a policy causing an overall increase in alcohol consumption and quantifying the disease-burden of smoking. CONCLUSION: By combining modest data needs with general accessibility and user friendliness within the causal framework of HIA, DYNAMO-HIA is a potential standard tool for health impact assessment based

  17. Evaluating impact level of different factors in environmental impact assessment for incinerator plants using GM (1, N) model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pai, T Y; Chiou, R J; Wen, H H

    2008-01-01

    In this study, the impact levels in environmental impact assessment (EIA) reports of 10 incinerator plants were quantified and discussed. The relationship between the quantified impact levels and the plant scale factors of BeiTou, LiZe, BaLi, LuTsao, RenWu, PingTung, SiJhou and HsinChu were constructed, and the impact levels of the GangShan (GS) and YongKong (YK) plants were predicted using grey model GM (1, N). Finally, the effects of plant scale factors on impact levels were evaluated using grey model GM (1, N) too. According to the predicted results of GM, the relative errors of topography/geology/soil, air quality, hydrology/water quality, solid waste, noise, terrestrial fauna/flora, aquatic fauna/flora and traffic in the GS plant were 17%, 14%, 15%, 17%, 75%, 16%, 13%, and 37%, respectively. The relative errors of the same environmental items in the YK plant were 1%, 18%, 10%, 40%, 37%, 3%, 25% and 33%, respectively. According to GM (1, N), design capacity (DC) and heat value (HV) were the plant scale factors that affected the impact levels significantly in each environmental item, and thus were the most significant plant scale factors. GM (1, N) was effective in predicting the environmental impact and analyzing the reasonableness of the impact. If there is an EIA for a new incinerator plant to be reviewed in the future, the official committee of the Taiwan EPA could review the reasonableness of impact levels in EIA reports quickly.

  18. On the development and use of farm models for policy impact assessment in the European Union – A review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reidsma, Pytrik; Janssen, Sander; Jansen, Jacques; Ittersum, van Martin K.

    2018-01-01

    Farm models are potentially relevant tools for policy impact assessment. Governments and international organizations use impact assessment (IA) as an ex-ante policy process and procedure to evaluate impacts of policy options as part of the introduction of new policies. IA is increasingly used. This

  19. Assessing the hydrological impacts of Tropical Cyclones on the Carolinas: An observational and modeling based investigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leeper, R. D.; Prat, O. P.; Blanton, B. O.

    2012-12-01

    During the warm season, the Carolinas are particularly prone to tropical cyclone (TC) activity and can be impacted in many different ways depending on storm track. The coasts of the Carolinas are the most vulnerable areas, but particular situations (Frances and Ivan 2004) affected communities far from the coasts (Prat and Nelson 2012). Regardless of where landfall occurs, TCs are often associated with intense precipitation and strong winds triggering a variety of natural hazards (storm surge, flooding, landslides). The assessment of societal and environmental impacts of TCs requires a suite of observations. The scarcity of station coverage, sensor limitations, and rainfall retrieval uncertainties are issues limiting the ability to assess accurately the impact of extreme precipitation events. Therefore, numerical models, such as the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), can be valuable tools to investigate those impacts at regional and local scales and bridge the gap between observations. The goal of this study is to investigate the impact of TCs across the Carolinas using both observational and modeling technologies, and explore the usefulness of numerical methods in data-scarce regions. To fully assess TC impacts on the Carolinas inhabitants, storms impacting both coastal and inner communities will be selected and high-resolution WRF ensemble simulations generated from a suite of physic schemes for each TC to investigate their impact at finer scales. The ensemble member performance will be evaluated with respect to ground-based and satellite observations. Furthermore, results from the high-resolution WRF simulations, including the average wind-speed and the sea level pressure, will be used with the ADCIRC storm-surge and wave-model (Westerink et al, 2008) to simulate storm surge and waves along the Carolinas coast for TCs travelling along the coast or making landfall. This work aims to provide an assessment of the various types of impacts TCs can have

  20. A holistic model for the selection of environmental assessment indicators to assess the impact of industrialization on indigenous health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kryzanowski, Julie A; McIntyre, Lynn

    2011-01-01

    Mainstream environmental assessment (EA) methodologies often inadequately address health, social and cultural impacts of concern for Canadian indigenous communities affected by industrialization. Our objective is to present a holistic, culturally-appropriate framework for the selection of indigenous health indicators for baseline health assessment, impact prediction, or monitoring of impacts over time. We used a critical population health approach to explore the determinants of health and health inequities in indigenous communities and conceptualize the pathways by which industrialization affects these determinants. We integrated and extended key elements from three indigenous health frameworks into a new holistic model for the selection of indigenous EA indicators. The holistic model conceptualizes individual and community determinants of health within external social, economic and political contexts and thus provides a comprehensive framework for selecting indicators of indigenous health. Indigenous health is the product of interactions among multiple determinants of health and contexts. Potential applications are discussed using case study examples involving indigenous communities affected by industrialization. Industrialization can worsen indigenous health inequities by perpetuating the health, social and cultural impacts of historic environmental dispossession. To mitigate impacts, EA should explicitly recognize linkages between environmental dispossession and the determinants of health and health inequities and meaningfully involve indigenous communities in the process.

  1. Computable general equilibrium models for sustainability impact assessment: Status quo and prospects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boehringer, Christoph; Loeschel, Andreas

    2006-01-01

    Sustainability Impact Assessment (SIA) of economic, environmental, and social effects triggered by governmental policies has become a central requirement for policy design. The three dimensions of SIA are inherently intertwined and subject to trade-offs. Quantification of trade-offs for policy decision support requires numerical models in order to assess systematically the interference of complex interacting forces that affect economic performance, environmental quality, and social conditions. This paper investigates the use of computable general equilibrium (CGE) models for measuring the impacts of policy interference on policy-relevant economic, environmental, and social (institutional) indicators. We find that operational CGE models used for energy-economy-environment (E3) analyses have a good coverage of central economic indicators. Environmental indicators such as energy-related emissions with direct links to economic activities are widely covered, whereas indicators with complex natural science background such as water stress or biodiversity loss are hardly represented. Social indicators stand out for very weak coverage, mainly because they are vaguely defined or incommensurable. Our analysis identifies prospects for future modeling in the field of integrated assessment that link standard E3-CGE-models to themespecific complementary models with environmental and social focus. (author)

  2. Impact of modelling scale on probabilistic flood risk assessment: the Malawi case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rudari Roberto

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In the early months of 2015, destructive floods hit Malawi, causing deaths and economic losses. Flood risk assessment outcomes can be used to increase scientific-supported awareness of risk. The recent increase in availability of high resolution data such as TanDEM-X at 12m resolution makes possible the use of detailed physical based flood hazard models in risk assessment. Nonetheless the scale of hazard modelling still remains an issue, which requires a compromise between level of detail and computational efforts. This work presents two different approaches on hazard modelling. Both methods rely on 32-years of numeric weather re-analysis and rainfall-runoff transformation through a fully distributed WFLOW-type hydrological model. The first method, applied at national scale, uses fast post-processing routines, which estimate flood water depth at a resolution of about 1×1km. The second method applies a full 2D hydraulic model to propagate water discharge into the flood plains and best suites for small areas where assets are concentrated. At the 12m resolution, three hot spots with a model area of approximately 10×10 km are analysed. Flood hazard maps obtained with both approaches are combined with flood impact models at the same resolution to generate indicators for flood risk. A quantitative comparison of the two approaches is presented in order to show the effects of modelling scale on both hazard and impact losses.

  3. Use of mathematical modelling to assess the impact of vaccines on antibiotic resistance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atkins, Katherine E; Lafferty, Erin I; Deeny, Sarah R; Davies, Nicholas G; Robotham, Julie V; Jit, Mark

    2017-11-13

    Antibiotic resistance is a major global threat to the provision of safe and effective health care. To control antibiotic resistance, vaccines have been proposed as an essential intervention, complementing improvements in diagnostic testing, antibiotic stewardship, and drug pipelines. The decision to introduce or amend vaccination programmes is routinely based on mathematical modelling. However, few mathematical models address the impact of vaccination on antibiotic resistance. We reviewed the literature using PubMed to identify all studies that used an original mathematical model to quantify the impact of a vaccine on antibiotic resistance transmission within a human population. We reviewed the models from the resulting studies in the context of a new framework to elucidate the pathways through which vaccination might impact antibiotic resistance. We identified eight mathematical modelling studies; the state of the literature highlighted important gaps in our understanding. Notably, studies are limited in the range of pathways represented, their geographical scope, and the vaccine-pathogen combinations assessed. Furthermore, to translate model predictions into public health decision making, more work is needed to understand how model structure and parameterisation affects model predictions and how to embed these predictions within economic frameworks. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Soil erosion fragility assessment using an impact model and geographic information system

    OpenAIRE

    Jorge,Luiz Alberto Blanco

    2009-01-01

    A study was taken in a 1566 ha watershed situated in the Capivara River basin, municipality of Botucatu, São Paulo State, Brazil. This environment is fragile and can be subjected to different forms of negative impacts, among them soil erosion by water. The main objective of the research was to develop a methodology for the assessment of soil erosion fragility at the various different watershed positions, using the geographic information system ILWIS version 3.3 for Windows. An impact model wa...

  5. Assessing the impact of marine wind farms on birds through movement modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masden, Elizabeth A; Reeve, Richard; Desholm, Mark; Fox, Anthony D; Furness, Robert W; Haydon, Daniel T

    2012-09-07

    Advances in technology and engineering, along with European Union renewable energy targets, have stimulated a rapid growth of the wind power sector. Wind farms contribute to carbon emission reductions, but there is a need to ensure that these structures do not adversely impact the populations that interact with them, particularly birds. We developed movement models based on observed avoidance responses of common eider Somateria mollissima to wind farms to predict, and identify potential measures to reduce, impacts. Flight trajectory data that were collected post-construction of the Danish Nysted offshore wind farm were used to parameterize competing models of bird movements around turbines. The model most closely fitting the observed data incorporated individual variation in the minimum distance at which birds responded to the turbines. We show how such models can contribute to the spatial planning of wind farms by assessing their extent, turbine spacing and configurations on the probability of birds passing between the turbines. Avian movement models can make new contributions to environmental assessments of wind farm developments, and provide insights into how to reduce impacts that can be identified at the planning stage.

  6. Assessing the impact of model spin-up on surface water-groundwater interactions using an integrated hydrologic model

    KAUST Repository

    Ajami, Hoori; McCabe, Matthew; Evans, Jason P.; Stisen, Simon

    2014-01-01

    is to minimize the impact of initialization while using the smallest spin-up time possible. In this study, multicriteria analysis was performed to assess the spin-up behavior of the ParFlow.CLM integrated groundwater-surface water-land surface model over a 208 km

  7. Natural biotic resources in LCA: Towards an impact assessment model for sustainable supply chain management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crenna, Eleonora; Sozzo, Sara; Sala, Serenella

    2018-01-20

    Natural resources, biotic and abiotic, are fundamental from both the ecological and socio-economic point of view, being at the basis of life-support. However, since the demand for finite resources continues to increase, the sustainability of current production and consumption patterns is questioned both in developed and developing countries. A transition towards an economy based on biotic renewable resources (bio-economy) is considered necessary in order to support a steady provision of resources, representing an alternative to an economy based on fossil and abiotic resources. However, to ensure a sustainable use of biotic resources, there is the need of properly accounting for their use along supply chains as well as defining a robust and comprehensive impact assessment model. Since so far naturally occurring biotic resources have gained little attention in impact assessment methods, such as life cycle assessment, the aim of this study is to enable the inclusion of biotic resources in the assessment of products and supply chains. This paper puts forward a framework for biotic resources assessment, including: i) the definition of system boundaries between ecosphere and technosphere, namely between naturally occurring and man-made biotic resources; ii) a list of naturally occurring biotic resources which have a commercial value, as basis for building life cycle inventories (NOBR, e.g. wild animals, plants etc); iii) an impact pathway to identify potential impacts on both resource provision and ecosystem quality; iv) a renewability-based indicator (NOBRri) for the impact assessment of naturally occurring biotic resources, including a list of associated characterization factors. The study, building on a solid review of literature and of available statistical data, highlights and discusses the critical aspects and paradoxes related to biotic resource inclusion in LCA: from the system boundaries definition up to the resource characterization.

  8. OMNIITOX - operational life-cycle impact assessment models and information tools for practitioners

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Molander, S; Lidholm, Peter; Schowanek, Diederik

    2004-01-01

    of the characterisation model(s) and limited input data on chemical properties, which often has resulted in the omission of toxicants from the LCIA, or at best focus on well characterised chemicals. The project addresses both problems and integrates models, as well as data, in an information system – the OMNIITOX IS....... There is also a need for clarification of the relations between the (environmental) risk assessments of toxicants and LCIA, in addition to investigating the feasibility of introducing LCA into European chemicals legislation, tasks that also were addressed in the project.......This article is the preamble to a set of articles describing initial results from an on-going European Commission funded, 5th Framework project called OMNIITOX, Operational Models aNd Information tools for Industrial applications of eco/TOXicological impact assessments. The different parts...

  9. Workshop: Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis: Modeling Climate Change Impacts and Associated Economic Damages (2010 - part 1)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The purpose of this workshop Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis. focused on conceptual and methodological issues - integrated assessment modeling and valuation.

  10. Concerted action on assessment of health and environmental impacts. Modeller and experimentalists' forum: final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simmonds, J.

    2000-07-01

    The behaviour of radionuclides in the environment and the associated risks have to be determined through a combination of experimental and modelling studies. Modelling systems, such as those developed collaboratively in the European Union, are required: (a) to determine the potential consequences of accidental releases, (b) to help in emergency planning, (c) to determine the radiological impact of proposed routine radionuclide releases. Various experimental and environmental monitoring data are used as an input to such systems both directly through the choice of parameter values and indirectly through validation of the models. It is important to establish good contacts between the modelling and experimental communities to contribute towards the harmonisation of environmental modelling and to contribute to the maintenance of the European Commission modelling systems as state of the art. Such contacts are also beneficial in directing future experimental research and modelling programmes. The aspects of environmental transfer considered in this project are terrestrial food chains, external irradiation, resuspension, atmospheric dispersion, and aquatic transfer. To fulfil the objectives of the project, NRPB took the lead, with assistance from the other partners, in organising and hosting regular meetings of researchers in the experimental and modelling communities, setting key issues for discussion at each meeting, and drawing together the conclusions of each meeting. The emphasis of the meetings was on the adequacy of the three principal EC-sponsored computing systems, COSYMA and PC-COSYMA (probabilistic risk assessment systems), PC-CREAM (system for assessing the consequences of routine releases) and RODOS (the EC decision aiding system for emergency response). The meetings considered whether these systems make adequate use of the available experimental data and findings on environmental contamination and transfer. This aim of this study was to consider the models

  11. Activities of NASA's Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) in the Assessment of Subsonic Aircraft Impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriquez, J. M.; Logan, J. A.; Rotman, D. A.; Bergmann, D. J.; Baughcum, S. L.; Friedl, R. R.; Anderson, D. E.

    2004-01-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimated a peak increase in ozone ranging from 7-12 ppbv (zonal and annual average, and relative to a baseline with no aircraft), due to the subsonic aircraft in the year 2015, corresponding to aircraft emissions of 1.3 TgN/year. This range of values presumably reflects differences in model input (e.g., chemical mechanism, ground emission fluxes, and meteorological fields), and algorithms. The model implemented by the Global Modeling Initiative allows testing the impact of individual model components on the assessment calculations. We present results of the impact of doubling the 1995 aircraft emissions of NOx, corresponding to an extra 0.56 TgN/year, utilizing meteorological data from NASA's Data Assimilation Office (DAO), the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), and the Middle Atmosphere Community Climate Model, version 3 (MACCM3). Comparison of results to observations can be used to assess the model performance. Peak ozone perturbations ranging from 1.7 to 2.2 ppbv of ozone are calculated using the different fields. These correspond to increases in total tropospheric ozone ranging from 3.3 to 4.1 Tg/Os. These perturbations are consistent with the IPCC results, due to the difference in aircraft emissions. However, the range of values calculated is much smaller than in IPCC.

  12. A Hydro-Economic Approach to Representing Water Resources Impacts in Integrated Assessment Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kirshen, Paul H.; Strzepek, Kenneth, M.

    2004-01-14

    Grant Number DE-FG02-98ER62665 Office of Energy Research of the U.S. Department of Energy Abstract Many Integrated Assessment Models (IAM) divide the world into a small number of highly aggregated regions. Non-OECD countries are aggregated geographically into continental and multiple-continental regions or economically by development level. Current research suggests that these large scale aggregations cannot accurately represent potential water resources-related climate change impacts. In addition, IAMs do not explicitly model the flow regulation impacts of reservoir and ground water systems, the economics of water supply, or the demand for water in economic activities. Using the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) model of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) as a case study, this research implemented a set of methodologies to provide accurate representation of water resource climate change impacts in Integrated Assessment Models. There were also detailed examinations of key issues related to aggregated modeling including: modeling water consumption versus water withdrawals; ground and surface water interactions; development of reservoir cost curves; modeling of surface areas of aggregated reservoirs for estimating evaporation losses; and evaluating the importance of spatial scale in river basin modeling. The major findings include: - Continental or national or even large scale river basin aggregation of water supplies and demands do not accurately capture the impacts of climate change in the water and agricultural sector in IAMs. - Fortunately, there now exist gridden approaches (0.5 X 0.5 degrees) to model streamflows in a global analysis. The gridded approach to hydrologic modeling allows flexibility in aligning basin boundaries with national boundaries. This combined with GIS tools, high speed computers, and the growing availability of socio-economic gridded data bases allows assignment of

  13. Environmental Modeling and Bayesian Analysis for Assessing Human Health Impacts from Radioactive Waste Disposal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stockton, T.; Black, P.; Tauxe, J.; Catlett, K.

    2004-12-01

    Bayesian decision analysis provides a unified framework for coherent decision-making. Two key components of Bayesian decision analysis are probability distributions and utility functions. Calculating posterior distributions and performing decision analysis can be computationally challenging, especially for complex environmental models. In addition, probability distributions and utility functions for environmental models must be specified through expert elicitation, stakeholder consensus, or data collection, all of which have their own set of technical and political challenges. Nevertheless, a grand appeal of the Bayesian approach for environmental decision- making is the explicit treatment of uncertainty, including expert judgment. The impact of expert judgment on the environmental decision process, though integral, goes largely unassessed. Regulations and orders of the Environmental Protection Agency, Department Of Energy, and Nuclear Regulatory Agency orders require assessing the impact on human health of radioactive waste contamination over periods of up to ten thousand years. Towards this end complex environmental simulation models are used to assess "risk" to human and ecological health from migration of radioactive waste. As the computational burden of environmental modeling is continually reduced probabilistic process modeling using Monte Carlo simulation is becoming routinely used to propagate uncertainty from model inputs through model predictions. The utility of a Bayesian approach to environmental decision-making is discussed within the context of a buried radioactive waste example. This example highlights the desirability and difficulties of merging the cost of monitoring, the cost of the decision analysis, the cost and viability of clean up, and the probability of human health impacts within a rigorous decision framework.

  14. Models for environmental impact assessments of releases of radioactive substances from CERN facilities

    CERN Document Server

    Vojtyla, P

    2005-01-01

    The document describes generic models for environmental impact assessments of releases of radioactive substances from CERN facilities. Except for few models developed in the Safety Commission, the models are based on the 1997 Swiss directive HSK-R-41 and on the 2001 IAEA Safety Report No. 19. The writing style is descriptive, facilitating the practical implementation of the models at CERN. There are four scenarios assumed for airborne releases: (1) short-term releases for release limit calculations, (2) actual short-term releases, (3) short-term releases during incidents/accidents, and (4) chronic long-term releases during the normal operation of a facility. For water releases, two scenarios are considered: (1) a release into a river, and (2) a release into a water treatment plant. The document shall be understood as a reference for specific environmental studies involving radioactive releases and as a recommendation of the Safety Commission.

  15. Evaluation of ecosystem simulation models as tools for assessment of power plant impacts on fish populations. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Swartzman, G.L.

    1984-07-01

    This report summarizes work on evaluating the usefulness of models in assessing power plant impacts. Models were found to be most useful in suggesting frequency and replication for monitoring programs. Models also were useful in indicating where further data are needed. The modeling work on Lake Ontario and Lake Keowee indicated difficulties in using monitoring data for model construction and validation

  16. Challenges of electricity production scenarios modelling for life cycle assessment of environmental impacts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blanc, Isabelle; Beloin-Saint-Pierre, Didier [MINES ParisTech, Sophia Antipolis (France). Observation, Impacts, Energy Center

    2013-07-01

    This communication presents a first attempt at making a life cycle assessment of prospective electricity production scenarios which were designed in the EnerGEO project. We start by a basic review of system (in this case, scenario) modelling expectations in today's LCA study. We then review some of the challenges of implementation due to the lack of detailed description of present and future electricity production systems. The importance of a detailed description is then shown with an evaluation of uncertainty of life cycle impact assessment results for three scenarios of German electricity production in 2030. The significant uncertainties we found, prevent us from detecting a relevant trend or making any comparison between the three chosen scenarios. We finally come to the conclusion that the LCA methodology will become relevant for the environmental assessment of electricity production scenarios when many more detailed information are accounted to describe future technologies, structures and sources of energy. (orig.)

  17. Challenges of electricity production scenarios modelling for life cycle assessment of environmental impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blanc, Isabelle; Beloin-Saint-Pierre, Didier

    2013-01-01

    This communication presents a first attempt at making a life cycle assessment of prospective electricity production scenarios which were designed in the EnerGEO project. We start by a basic review of system (in this case, scenario) modelling expectations in today's LCA study. We then review some of the challenges of implementation due to the lack of detailed description of present and future electricity production systems. The importance of a detailed description is then shown with an evaluation of uncertainty of life cycle impact assessment results for three scenarios of German electricity production in 2030. The significant uncertainties we found, prevent us from detecting a relevant trend or making any comparison between the three chosen scenarios. We finally come to the conclusion that the LCA methodology will become relevant for the environmental assessment of electricity production scenarios when many more detailed information are accounted to describe future technologies, structures and sources of energy. (orig.)

  18. Developing a Model to Assess the Potential Impact of TUM Hydropower Turbines on Small River Ecology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weiwei Yao

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Small hydropower is a renewable energy technology that is used for electricity generation worldwide, but still has potential for further development. However, during the installation of small hydropower, the ecological impacts of the power plants need to be thoroughly investigated. In addressing the challenges of energy production and minimizing the environmental impacts of small hydropower installation and operation, this study has applied an ecohydraulic model to investigate river hydrodynamics, hydromorphology, habitat, and the population impacts of small hydropower, and presented the Mum River as a case study. Two scenarios were implemented in this research to simulate the hydrodynamic, sedimentation, habitat, and population status in order to assess the potential effects caused by the TUM plant. At the Mum River, two scenarios were proposed: the TUM plant was not considered in scenario S1, but was considered in scenario S2. The model results for scenario S2 indicated that the habitat was suitable for fish species living in the Mum River, with fish population numbers between 4.6 × 103 and 6.6 × 103. The S2 results indicated that the impacts of the TUM plant were negligible when compared with S1. Although the impact of the TUM plant on the Mum River is relatively large when the discharge is high (19 m3/s, calculations based on stable flow shows that the TUM plant could function well on the river ecosystem when the discharge is low or at normal rates. Therefore, this study shows that the TUM plant would be a good option to meet the needs of energy generation whilst having a minimal impact on river habitats and changes in fish species population in similar small rivers and streams.

  19. Integrated earth system dynamic modeling for life cycle impact assessment of ecosystem services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arbault, Damien; Rivière, Mylène; Rugani, Benedetto; Benetto, Enrico; Tiruta-Barna, Ligia

    2014-02-15

    Despite the increasing awareness of our dependence on Ecosystem Services (ES), Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) does not explicitly and fully assess the damages caused by human activities on ES generation. Recent improvements in LCIA focus on specific cause-effect chains, mainly related to land use changes, leading to Characterization Factors (CFs) at the midpoint assessment level. However, despite the complexity and temporal dynamics of ES, current LCIA approaches consider the environmental mechanisms underneath ES to be independent from each other and devoid of dynamic character, leading to constant CFs whose representativeness is debatable. This paper takes a step forward and is aimed at demonstrating the feasibility of using an integrated earth system dynamic modeling perspective to retrieve time- and scenario-dependent CFs that consider the complex interlinkages between natural processes delivering ES. The GUMBO (Global Unified Metamodel of the Biosphere) model is used to quantify changes in ES production in physical terms - leading to midpoint CFs - and changes in human welfare indicators, which are considered here as endpoint CFs. The interpretation of the obtained results highlights the key methodological challenges to be solved to consider this approach as a robust alternative to the mainstream rationale currently adopted in LCIA. Further research should focus on increasing the granularity of environmental interventions in the modeling tools to match current standards in LCA and on adapting the conceptual approach to a spatially-explicit integrated model. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Curonian Lagoon drainage basin modelling and assessment of climate change impact

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalja Čerkasova

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The Curonian Lagoon, which is the largest European coastal lagoon with a surface area of 1578 km2 and a drainage area of 100,458 km2, is facing a severe eutrophication problem. With its increasing water management difficulties, the need for a sophisticated hydrological model of the Curonian Lagoon's drainage area arose, in order to assess possible changes resulting from local and global processes. In this study, we developed and calibrated a sophisticated hydrological model with the required accuracy, as an initial step for the future development of a modelling framework that aims to correctly predict the movement of pesticides, sediments or nutrients, and to evaluate water-management practices. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool was used to implement a model of the study area and to assess the impact of climate-change scenarios on the run-off of the Nemunas River and the Minija River, which are located in the Curonian Lagoons drainage basin. The models calibration and validation were performed using monthly streamflow data, and evaluated using the coefficient of determination (R2 and the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (NSE. The calculated values of the R2 and NSE for the Nemunas and Minija Rivers stations were 0.81 and 0.79 for the calibration, and 0.679 and 0.602 for the validation period. Two potential climate-change scenarios were developed within the general patterns of near-term climate projections, as defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report: both pessimistic (substantial changes in precipitation and temperature and optimistic (insubstantial changes in precipitation and temperature. Both simulations produce similar general patterns in river-discharge change: a strong increase (up to 22% in the winter months, especially in February, a decrease during the spring (up to 10% and summer (up to 18%, and a slight increase during the autumn (up to 10%.

  1. Ecological impact assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, J.M.; Eberhardt, L.L.

    1975-01-01

    Quantitative problems in accomplishing ecological impact assessment with particular reference to defining population effects are discussed with some comments on the two approaches most commonly used, e.g., the experimental and simulation models. Some alternatives are suggested because both methods will probably fail to detect real population effects mostly due to poor understanding of ecosystems or because of the limitations inherent in field census methods. Most judgments of ecological impact are not quantitatively defensible but are qualitative, subjective, or political in nature. An examination of aggregates of data from various nuclear power plant sites may be one way to obtain enough replication to judge ecological impact. Thus, currently available data from such studies as well as appropriate demographic, vegetation, census, and bibliographic material could offer an interesting challenge to computer professionals if such an undertaking were contemplated. Present research programs at PNL and computer involvement are described. Future possibilities and directions are discussed. (U.S.)

  2. Assessing anthropogenic impact on boreal lakes with historical fish species distribution data and hydrogeochemical modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valinia, Salar; Englund, Göran; Moldan, Filip; Futter, Martyn N; Köhler, Stephan J; Bishop, Kevin; Fölster, Jens

    2014-09-01

    Quantifying the effects of human activity on the natural environment is dependent on credible estimates of reference conditions to define the state of the environment before the onset of adverse human impacts. In Europe, emission controls that aimed at restoring ecological status were based on hindcasts from process-based models or paleolimnological reconstructions. For instance, 1860 is used in Europe as the target for restoration from acidification concerning biological and chemical parameters. A more practical problem is that the historical states of ecosystems and their function cannot be observed directly. Therefore, we (i) compare estimates of acidification based on long-term observations of roach (Rutilus rutilus) populations with hindcast pH from the hydrogeochemical model MAGIC; (ii) discuss policy implications and possible scope for use of long-term archival data for assessing human impacts on the natural environment and (iii) present a novel conceptual model for interpreting the importance of physico-chemical and ecological deviations from reference conditions. Of the 85 lakes studied, 78 were coherently classified by both methods. In 1980, 28 lakes were classified as acidified with the MAGIC model, however, roach was present in 14 of these. In 2010, MAGIC predicted chemical recovery in 50% of the lakes, however roach only recolonized in five lakes after 1990, showing a lag between chemical and biological recovery. Our study is the first study of its kind to use long-term archival biological data in concert with hydrogeochemical modeling for regional assessments of anthropogenic acidification. Based on our results, we show how the conceptual model can be used to understand and prioritize management of physico-chemical and ecological effects of anthropogenic stressors on surface water quality. © 2014 The Authors Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. Assessing the impacts of water abstractions on river ecosystem services: an eco-hydraulic modelling approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carolli, Mauro, E-mail: mauro.carolli@unitn.it; Geneletti, Davide, E-mail: davide.geneletti@unitn.it; Zolezzi, Guido, E-mail: guido.zolezzi@unitn.it

    2017-03-15

    The provision of important river ecosystem services (ES) is dependent on the flow regime. This requires methods to assess the impacts on ES caused by interventions on rivers that affect flow regime, such as water abstractions. This study proposes a method to i) quantify the provision of a set of river ES, ii) simulate the effects of water abstraction alternatives that differ in location and abstracted flow, and iii) assess the impact of water abstraction alternatives on the selected ES. The method is based on river modelling science, and integrates spatially distributed hydrological, hydraulic and habitat models at different spatial and temporal scales. The method is applied to the hydropeaked upper Noce River (Northern Italy), which is regulated by hydropower operations. We selected locally relevant river ES: habitat suitability for the adult marble trout, white-water rafting suitability, hydroelectricity production from run-of-river (RoR) plants. Our results quantify the seasonality of river ES response variables and their intrinsic non-linearity, which explains why the same abstracted flow can produce different effects on trout habitat and rafting suitability depending on the morphology of the abstracted reach. An economic valuation of the examined river ES suggests that incomes from RoR hydropower plants are of comparable magnitude to touristic revenue losses related to the decrease in rafting suitability.

  4. Inspection of the Math Model Tools for On-Orbit Assessment of Impact Damage Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Charles E.; Raju, Ivatury S.; Piascik, Robert S> KramerWhite, Julie A.; KramerWhite, Julie A.; Labbe, Steve G.; Rotter, Hank A.

    2007-01-01

    In Spring of 2005, the NASA Engineering Safety Center (NESC) was engaged by the Space Shuttle Program (SSP) to peer review the suite of analytical tools being developed to support the determination of impact and damage tolerance of the Orbiter Thermal Protection Systems (TPS). The NESC formed an independent review team with the core disciplines of materials, flight sciences, structures, mechanical analysis and thermal analysis. The Math Model Tools reviewed included damage prediction and stress analysis, aeroheating analysis, and thermal analysis tools. Some tools are physics-based and other tools are empirically-derived. Each tool was created for a specific use and timeframe, including certification, real-time pre-launch assessments. In addition, the tools are used together in an integrated strategy for assessing the ramifications of impact damage to tile and RCC. The NESC teams conducted a peer review of the engineering data package for each Math Model Tool. This report contains the summary of the team observations and recommendations from these reviews.

  5. Assessing the impacts of water abstractions on river ecosystem services: an eco-hydraulic modelling approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carolli, Mauro; Geneletti, Davide; Zolezzi, Guido

    2017-01-01

    The provision of important river ecosystem services (ES) is dependent on the flow regime. This requires methods to assess the impacts on ES caused by interventions on rivers that affect flow regime, such as water abstractions. This study proposes a method to i) quantify the provision of a set of river ES, ii) simulate the effects of water abstraction alternatives that differ in location and abstracted flow, and iii) assess the impact of water abstraction alternatives on the selected ES. The method is based on river modelling science, and integrates spatially distributed hydrological, hydraulic and habitat models at different spatial and temporal scales. The method is applied to the hydropeaked upper Noce River (Northern Italy), which is regulated by hydropower operations. We selected locally relevant river ES: habitat suitability for the adult marble trout, white-water rafting suitability, hydroelectricity production from run-of-river (RoR) plants. Our results quantify the seasonality of river ES response variables and their intrinsic non-linearity, which explains why the same abstracted flow can produce different effects on trout habitat and rafting suitability depending on the morphology of the abstracted reach. An economic valuation of the examined river ES suggests that incomes from RoR hydropower plants are of comparable magnitude to touristic revenue losses related to the decrease in rafting suitability.

  6. Best approach to impact assessment is to use empirically based or simulation models to forecast impacts. Environmental Sciences Division Publication No. 1538

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Christensen, S.W.

    1980-01-01

    This paper advocates the utility of mathematical models, as contrasted with statistical procedures and processional judgment, for assessing environmental impacts. While it would be desirable to use statistical tests to detect and estimate impacts, this is generally difficult or impossible to do, even with existing sources of impact. Empirical modeling, supported by statistical analyses when possible, is proffered as the logical alternative. Next, for purposes of forecasting impacts, the use of models as opposed to professional judgment or experience is considered. The conclusion is reached that, while models cannot answer all of the relevant questions, they can be used effectively and can address problems that are beyond the reach of statistical methods

  7. Assessing the Impact of Equipment Aging on System Performance Using Simulation Modeling Methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gupta, N. K.

    2005-01-01

    The radiological Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometer (ICP-MS) is used to analyze the radioactive samples collected from different radioactive material processing operations at Savannah River Site (SRS). The expeditious processing of these samples is important for safe and reliable operations at SRS. As the radiological (RAD) ICP-MS machine ages, the experience shows that replacement parts and repairs are difficult to obtain on time for reliable operations after 5 years of service. A discrete event model using commercial software EXTEND was prepared to assess the impact on sample turn around times as the ICP-MS gets older. The model was prepared using the sample statistics from the previous 4 years. Machine utilization rates were calculated for the new machine, 5 year old machine, 10 year old machine, and a 12 year old machine. Computer simulations were run for these periods and the sample delay times calculated. The model was validated against the sample statistics collected from the previous 4 quarters. 90% confidence intervals were calculated for the 10th, 25th, 50th, and 90th quantiles of the samples. The simulation results show that if 50% of the samples are needed on time for efficient site operations, a 10 year old machine could take nearly 50 days longer to process these samples than a 5-year old machine. This simulation effort quantifies the impact on sample turn around time as the ICP-MS gets older

  8. A climate robust integrated modelling framework for regional impact assessment of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janssen, Gijs; Bakker, Alexander; van Ek, Remco; Groot, Annemarie; Kroes, Joop; Kuiper, Marijn; Schipper, Peter; van Walsum, Paul; Wamelink, Wieger; Mol, Janet

    2013-04-01

    Decision making towards climate proofing the water management of regional catchments can benefit greatly from the availability of a climate robust integrated modelling framework, capable of a consistent assessment of climate change impacts on the various interests present in the catchments. In the Netherlands, much effort has been devoted to developing state-of-the-art regional dynamic groundwater models with a very high spatial resolution (25x25 m2). Still, these models are not completely satisfactory to decision makers because the modelling concepts do not take into account feedbacks between meteorology, vegetation/crop growth, and hydrology. This introduces uncertainties in forecasting the effects of climate change on groundwater, surface water, agricultural yields, and development of groundwater dependent terrestrial ecosystems. These uncertainties add to the uncertainties about the predictions on climate change itself. In order to create an integrated, climate robust modelling framework, we coupled existing model codes on hydrology, agriculture and nature that are currently in use at the different research institutes in the Netherlands. The modelling framework consists of the model codes MODFLOW (groundwater flow), MetaSWAP (vadose zone), WOFOST (crop growth), SMART2-SUMO2 (soil-vegetation) and NTM3 (nature valuation). MODFLOW, MetaSWAP and WOFOST are coupled online (i.e. exchange information on time step basis). Thus, changes in meteorology and CO2-concentrations affect crop growth and feedbacks between crop growth, vadose zone water movement and groundwater recharge are accounted for. The model chain WOFOST-MetaSWAP-MODFLOW generates hydrological input for the ecological prediction model combination SMART2-SUMO2-NTM3. The modelling framework was used to support the regional water management decision making process in the 267 km2 Baakse Beek-Veengoot catchment in the east of the Netherlands. Computations were performed for regionalized 30-year climate change

  9. Bayesian modeling to assess populated areas impacted by radiation from Fukushima

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hultquist, C.; Cervone, G.

    2017-12-01

    Citizen-led movements producing spatio-temporal big data are increasingly important sources of information about populations that are impacted by natural disasters. Citizen science can be used to fill gaps in disaster monitoring data, in addition to inferring human exposure and vulnerability to extreme environmental impacts. As a response to the 2011 release of radiation from Fukushima, Japan, the Safecast project began collecting open radiation data which grew to be a global dataset of over 70 million measurements to date. This dataset is spatially distributed primarily where humans are located and demonstrates abnormal patterns of population movements as a result of the disaster. Previous work has demonstrated that Safecast is highly correlated in comparison to government radiation observations. However, there is still a scientific need to understand the geostatistical variability of Safecast data and to assess how reliable the data are over space and time. The Bayesian hierarchical approach can be used to model the spatial distribution of datasets and flexibly integrate new flows of data without losing previous information. This enables an understanding of uncertainty in the spatio-temporal data to inform decision makers on areas of high levels of radiation where populations are located. Citizen science data can be scientifically evaluated and used as a critical source of information about populations that are impacted by a disaster.

  10. Generic models for use in assessing the impact of discharges of radioactive substances to the environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    The concern of society in general for the quality of the environment and the realization that all human activities have some environmental effect has led to the development of a procedure for environmental impact analysis. This procedure is a predictive one, which forecasts probable environmental effects before some action, such as the construction and operation of a nuclear power station, is decided upon. The method of prediction is by the application of models that describe the environmental processes in mathematical terms in order to produce a quantitative result which can be used in the decision making process. This report describes such a procedure for application to radioactive discharges and is addressed to the national regulatory bodies and technical and administrative personnel responsible for performing environmental impact analyses. The report is also intended to support the recently published IAEA Safety Guide on Regulatory Control of Radioactive Discharges to the Environment. It expands on and supersedes previous advice published in IAEA Safety Series No. 57 on Generic Models and Parameters for Assessing the Environmental Transfer of Radionuclides from Routine Releases. This Safety Report was developed through a series of consultants meetings and three Advisory Group Meetings

  11. Assessing the welfare impact of foot disorders in dairy cattle by a modeling approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bruijnis, M.R.N.; Beerda, B.; Hogeveen, H.; Stassen, E.N.

    2012-01-01

    Foot disorders are the main cause of dairy cow lameness and are considered to have a major impact on the welfare of dairy cattle. This study adopts a modeling approach, using a dynamic stochastic model, to provide more insight into the welfare impact of different types of foot disorders, both

  12. Using Water Quality Models in Management - A Multiple Model Assessment, Analysis of Confidence, and Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irby, Isaac David

    Human impacts on the Chesapeake Bay through increased nutrient run-off as a result of land-use change, urbanization, and industrialization, have resulted in a degradation of water quality over the last half-century. These direct impacts, compounded with human-induced climate changes such as warming, rising sea-level, and changes in precipitation, have elevated the conversation surrounding the future of water quality in the Bay. The overall goal of this dissertation project is to use a combination of models and data to better understand and quantify the impact of changes in nutrient loads and climate on water quality in the Chesapeake Bay. This research achieves that goal in three parts. First, a set of eight water quality models is used to establish a model mean and assess model skill. All models were found to exhibit similar skill in resolving dissolved oxygen concentrations as well as a number of dissolved oxygen-influencing variables (temperature, salinity, stratification, chlorophyll and nitrate) and the model mean exhibited the highest individual skill. The location of stratification within the water column was found to be a limiting factor in the models' ability to adequately simulate habitat compression resulting from low-oxygen conditions. Second, two of the previous models underwent the regulatory Chesapeake Bay pollution diet mandated by the Environmental Protection Agency. Both models exhibited a similar relative improvement in dissolved oxygen concentrations as a result of the reduction of nutrients stipulated in the pollution diet. A Confidence Index was developed to identify the locations of the Bay where the models are in agreement and disagreement regarding the impacts of the pollution diet. The models were least certain in the deep part of the upper main stem of the Bay and the uncertainty primarily stemmed from the post-processing methodology. Finally, by projecting the impacts of climate change in 2050 on the Bay, the potential success of the

  13. Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modeling (LUCHEM). I: Model intercomparison with current land use

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breuer, L.; Huisman, J.A.; Willems, P.; Bormann, H.; Bronstert, A.; Croke, B.F.W.; Frede, H.-G.; Graff, T.; Hubrechts, L.; Jakeman, A.J.; Kite, G.; Lanini, J.; Leavesley, G.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; Lindstrom, G.; Seibert, J.; Sivapalan, M.; Viney, N.R.

    2009-01-01

    This paper introduces the project on 'Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modeling (LUCHEM)' that aims at investigating the envelope of predictions on changes in hydrological fluxes due to land use change. As part of a series of four papers, this paper outlines the motivation and setup of LUCHEM, and presents a model intercomparison for the present-day simulation results. Such an intercomparison provides a valuable basis to investigate the effects of different model structures on model predictions and paves the ground for the analysis of the performance of multi-model ensembles and the reliability of the scenario predictions in companion papers. In this study, we applied a set of 10 lumped, semi-lumped and fully distributed hydrological models that have been previously used in land use change studies to the low mountainous Dill catchment, Germany. Substantial differences in model performance were observed with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies ranging from 0.53 to 0.92. Differences in model performance were attributed to (1) model input data, (2) model calibration and (3) the physical basis of the models. The models were applied with two sets of input data: an original and a homogenized data set. This homogenization of precipitation, temperature and leaf area index was performed to reduce the variation between the models. Homogenization improved the comparability of model simulations and resulted in a reduced average bias, although some variation in model data input remained. The effect of the physical differences between models on the long-term water balance was mainly attributed to differences in how models represent evapotranspiration. Semi-lumped and lumped conceptual models slightly outperformed the fully distributed and physically based models. This was attributed to the automatic model calibration typically used for this type of models. Overall, however, we conclude that there was no superior model if several measures of model

  14. Modeling the assessment of the economic factors impact on the development of social entrepreneurship

    Science.gov (United States)

    Absalyamov, T.; Kundakchyan, R.; Zulfakarova, L.; Zapparova, Z.

    2017-12-01

    The article deals with the research of modern trends in the development of social entrepreneurship in Russia. The results of the research allow the authors to identify a system of factors that affect the development of entrepreneurship in the modern Russian economy. Moreover, the authors argue the regional specificity of the development of social entrepreneurship. The paper considers specific features and formulates the main limitations of the development of entrepreneurship and the competitive environment in the social sphere. The authors suggest an econometric model for assessing the influence of economic factors on the development of socially-oriented entrepreneurship and present an algorithm for calculating its components. The results of the econometric analysis identify the main factors of the change in the performance indicators of entrepreneurial activity and determine the degree of their impact on social entrepreneurship. The results and conclusions can serve as an estimation of the socioeconomic consequences of the sustainability disruption of the entrepreneurial potential realization in the social sphere.

  15. Impact modelling for the postclosure safety assessment of OPG's DGR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Little, R.; Walke, R.; Towler, G.; Penfold, J.

    2011-01-01

    Ontario Power Generation (OPG) is proposing to build a Deep Geologic Repository (DGR) for Low and Intermediate Level Waste near the existing Western Waste Management Facility at the Bruce nuclear site in the Municipality of Kincardine, Ontario. As part of the safety assessment for the proposed DGR, calculations were undertaken to evaluate the repository's potential postclosure impacts. Impacts were evaluated for a Normal Evolution Scenario, describing the expected long-term evolution of the repository and site following closure, and four Disruptive Scenarios, which consider events that could lead to possible loss of containment. An assessment-level (system) model was implemented in AMBER, a compartment modelling code, that represents radioactive decay, waste package degradation, potential contaminant transport through the repository, sealed shafts, geosphere and surface environment, and the associated impacts. The model used input from detailed models implemented in the FRAC3DVS-OPG and T2GGM codes for the repository saturation, gas generation, and groundwater and gas flow processes. Both safety and performance indicators were calculated to assess the potential impact of the DGR. Safety indicators include radiation dose to humans and environmental concentrations of radionuclides and non-radioactive hazardous substances. Performance indicators include contaminant amounts within various spatial domains (e.g., the repository, the host rock, and the wider geosphere) and fluxes of contaminants at various points in the DGR system. The long timescales under consideration mean that there are uncertainties about the way the DGR system will evolve. In addition to assessing alternative future evolutions through different scenarios, uncertainties were addressed through the adoption of conservative assumptions, the evaluation of variant deterministic cases within each scenario, and probabilistic calculations. The results for the Normal Evolution Scenario indicate that the

  16. Transport Infrastructure Planning: Assessment of Strategic Mobility by Use of the POINTER Impact Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kronbak, Jacob; Leleur, Steen

    2002-01-01

    of the societal importance of the examined project. The focus of this paper is to present the first results of a comparison of the use of a strategic impact measurement (the POINTER index) for road traffic on the Great Belt Link, the Øresund Link and the proposed Fehmarn Belt link. Specifically a number......When evaluating large infrastructure projects one point to be made is the importance of supplementing the more traditional effects captured by a cost-benefit analysis as presented for example by use of the benefit cost ratio (BCR) with strategic effect modelling to obtain a more comprehensive view...... of calculation scenarios have been made to assess the possibility of the POINTER approach to indicate the changes in strategic mobility (accessibility) associated with the implementing of one or more of the three fixed links. Finally, conclusions and a research perspective are outlined....

  17. Change Agents & Impact Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kørnøv, Lone; Larsen, Sanne Vammen; Hansen, Anne Merrild

    2010-01-01

    One of the challenges facing impact assessment is finding ways to work in research and practice that allow appropriate action and critical interrogation og action to enable and support sustainable change.......One of the challenges facing impact assessment is finding ways to work in research and practice that allow appropriate action and critical interrogation og action to enable and support sustainable change....

  18. Assessing the influence of climate model uncertanty on EU-wide climate impact indicators

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lung, T.; Dosio, A.; Becker, W.; Lavalle, C.; Bouwer, L.M.

    2013-01-01

    Despite an increasing understanding of potential climate change impacts in Europe, the associated uncertainties remain a key challenge. In many impact studies, the assessment of uncertainties is underemphasised, or is not performed quantitatively. A key source of uncertainty is the variability of

  19. Assessing wetland loss impacts on watershed hydrology using an improved modeling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Despite the importance of wetland impacts on water cycling, the Chesapeake Bay Watershed (CBW) has experienced significant wetland losses. The resultant environmental degradation has not been fully characterized. Our aim is to assess wetland loss impacts on watershed hydrology for an agricultural wa...

  20. Adapting crop rotations to climate change in regional impact modelling assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teixeira, Edmar I; de Ruiter, John; Ausseil, Anne-Gaelle; Daigneault, Adam; Johnstone, Paul; Holmes, Allister; Tait, Andrew; Ewert, Frank

    2018-03-01

    The environmental and economic sustainability of future cropping systems depends on adaptation to climate change. Adaptation studies commonly rely on agricultural systems models to integrate multiple components of production systems such as crops, weather, soil and farmers' management decisions. Previous adaptation studies have mostly focused on isolated monocultures. However, in many agricultural regions worldwide, multi-crop rotations better represent local production systems. It is unclear how adaptation interventions influence crops grown in sequences. We develop a catchment-scale assessment to investigate the effects of tactical adaptations (choice of genotype and sowing date) on yield and underlying crop-soil factors of rotations. Based on locally surveyed data, a silage-maize followed by catch-crop-wheat rotation was simulated with the APSIM model for the RCP 8.5 emission scenario, two time periods (1985-2004 and 2080-2100) and six climate models across the Kaituna catchment in New Zealand. Results showed that direction and magnitude of climate change impacts, and the response to adaptation, varied spatially and were affected by rotation carryover effects due to agronomical (e.g. timing of sowing and harvesting) and soil (e.g. residual nitrogen, N) aspects. For example, by adapting maize to early-sowing dates under a warmer climate, there was an advance in catch crop establishment which enhanced residual soil N uptake. This dynamics, however, differed with local environment and choice of short- or long-cycle maize genotypes. Adaptation was insufficient to neutralize rotation yield losses in lowlands but consistently enhanced yield gains in highlands, where other constraints limited arable cropping. The positive responses to adaptation were mainly due to increases in solar radiation interception across the entire growth season. These results provide deeper insights on the dynamics of climate change impacts for crop rotation systems. Such knowledge can be used

  1. Global and local emission impact assessment of distributed cogeneration systems with partial-load models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mancarella, Pierluigi; Chicco, Gianfranco

    2009-01-01

    Small-scale distributed cogeneration technologies represent a key resource to increase generation efficiency and reduce greenhouse gas emissions with respect to conventional separate production means. However, the diffusion of distributed cogeneration within urban areas, where air quality standards are quite stringent, brings about environmental concerns on a local level. In addition, partial-load emission worsening is often overlooked, which could lead to biased evaluations of the energy system environmental performance. In this paper, a comprehensive emission assessment framework suitable for addressing distributed cogeneration systems is formulated. Local and global emission impact models are presented to identify upper and lower boundary values of the environmental pressure from pollutants that would be emitted from reference technologies, to be compared to the actual emissions from distributed cogeneration. This provides synthetic information on the relative environmental impact from small-scale CHP sources, useful for general indicative and non-site-specific studies. The emission models are formulated according to an electrical output-based emission factor approach, through which off-design operation and relevant performance are easily accounted for. In particular, in order to address the issues that could arise under off-design operation, an equivalent load model is incorporated within the proposed framework, by exploiting the duration curve of the cogenerator loading and the emissions associated to each loading level. In this way, it is possible to quantify the contribution to the emissions from cogeneration systems that might operate at partial loads for a significant portion of their operation time, as for instance in load-tracking applications. Suitability of the proposed methodology is discussed with respect to hazardous air pollutants such as NO x and CO, as well as to greenhouse gases such as CO 2 . Two case study applications based on the emission

  2. Total environmental impacts of biofuels from corn stover using a hybrid life cycle assessment model combining process life cycle assessment and economic input-output life cycle assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Changqi; Huang, Yaji; Wang, Xinye; Tai, Yang; Liu, Lingqin; Liu, Hao

    2018-01-01

    Studies on the environmental analysis of biofuels by fast pyrolysis and hydroprocessing (BFPH) have so far focused only on the environmental impacts from direct emissions and have included few indirect emissions. The influence of ignoring some indirect emissions on the environmental performance of BFPH has not been well investigated and hence is not really understood. In addition, in order to avoid shifting environmental problems from one medium to another, a comprehensive assessment of environmental impacts caused by the processes must quantify the environmental emissions to all media (air, water, and land) in relation to each life cycle stage. A well-to-wheels assessment of the total environmental impacts resulting from direct emissions and indirect emissions of a BFPH system with corn stover is conducted using a hybrid life cycle assessment (LCA) model combining the economic input-output LCA and the process LCA. The Tool for the Reduction and Assessment of Chemical and other environmental Impacts (TRACI) has been used to estimate the environmental impacts in terms of acidification, eutrophication, global climate change, ozone depletion, human health criteria, photochemical smog formation, ecotoxicity, human health cancer, and human health noncancer caused by 1 MJ biofuel production. Taking account of all the indirect greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the net GHG emissions (81.8 g CO 2 eq/MJ) of the biofuels are still less than those of petroleum-based fuels (94 g CO 2 eq/MJ). Maize production and pyrolysis and hydroprocessing make major contributions to all impact categories except the human health criteria. All impact categories resulting from indirect emissions except eutrophication and smog air make more than 24% contribution to the total environmental impacts. Therefore, the indirect emissions are important and cannot be ignored. Sensitivity analysis has shown that corn stover yield and bio-oil yield affect the total environmental impacts of the biofuels

  3. Assessing the potential for fish predation to impact zebra mussels (Dreissena polymorpha): Insight from bioenergetics models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eggleton, M.A.; Miranda, L.E.; Kirk, J.P.

    2004-01-01

    Rates of annual food consumption and biomass were modeled for several fish species across representative rivers and lakes in eastern North America. Results were combined to assess the relative potential of fish predation to impact zebra mussels (Dreissena polymorpha). Predicted annual food consumption by fishes in southern waters was over 100% greater than that in northern systems because of warmer annual water temperatures and presumed increases in metabolic demand. Although generally increasing with latitude, biomasses of several key zebra mussel fish predators did not change significantly across latitudes. Biomasses of some less abundant fish predators did increase significantly with latitude, but increases were not of the magnitude to offset predicted decreases in food consumption. Our results generally support the premise that fishes in rivers and lakes of the southern United States (U.S.) have inherently greater potential to impact zebra mussels by predation. Our simulations may provide a partial explanation of why zebra mussel invasions have not been as rapid and widespread in southern U.S. waters compared to the Great Lakes region. ?? Blackwell Munksgaard, 2004.

  4. Evaluation of additional biogeochemical impacts on mitigation pathways in an energy sytem integrated assessment model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dessens, O.

    2017-12-01

    Within the last IPCC AR5 a large and systematic sensitivity study around available technologies and timing of policies applied in IAMs to achieve the 2°C target has been conducted. However the simple climate representations included in IAMs are generally tuned to the results of ensemble means. This may result in hiding within the ensemble mean results possible challenging mitigation pathways for the economy or the technology future scenarios. This work provides new insights on the sensitivity of the socio-economic response to different climate factors under a 2°C climate change target in order to help guide future efforts to reduce uncertainty in the climate mitigation decisions. The main objective is to understand and bring new insights on how future global warming will affect the natural biochemical feedbacks on the climate system and what could be the consequences of these feedbacks on the anthropogenic emission pathways with a specific focus on the energy-economy system. It specifically focuses on three issues of the climate representation affecting the energy system transformation and GHG emissions pathways: 1- Impacts of the climate sensitivity (or TCR); 2- Impacts of warming on the radiative forcing (cloudiness,...); 3- Impacts of warming on the carbon cycle (carbon cycle feedback). We use the integrated assessment model TIAM-UCL to examine the mitigation pathways compatible with the 2C target depending on assumptions regarding the 3 issues of the climate representation introduced above. The following key conclusions drawn from this study are that mitigation to 2°C is still possible under strong climate sensitivity (TCR), strong carbon cycle amplification or positive radiative forcing feedback. However, this level of climate mitigation will require a significant transformation in the way we produce and consume energy. Carbon capture and sequestration on electricity generation, industry and biomass is part of the technology pool needed to achieve this

  5. Health impact assessment of particulate pollution in Tallinn using fine spatial resolution and modeling techniques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kimmel Veljo

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Health impact assessments (HIA use information on exposure, baseline mortality/morbidity and exposure-response functions from epidemiological studies in order to quantify the health impacts of existing situations and/or alternative scenarios. The aim of this study was to improve HIA methods for air pollution studies in situations where exposures can be estimated using GIS with high spatial resolution and dispersion modeling approaches. Methods Tallinn was divided into 84 sections according to neighborhoods, with a total population of approx. 390 000 persons. Actual baseline rates for total mortality and hospitalization with cardiovascular and respiratory diagnosis were identified. The exposure to fine particles (PM2.5 from local emissions was defined as the modeled annual levels. The model validation and morbidity assessment were based on 2006 PM10 or PM2.5 levels at 3 monitoring stations. The exposure-response coefficients used were for total mortality 6.2% (95% CI 1.6–11% per 10 μg/m3 increase of annual mean PM2.5 concentration and for the assessment of respiratory and cardiovascular hospitalizations 1.14% (95% CI 0.62–1.67% and 0.73% (95% CI 0.47–0.93% per 10 μg/m3 increase of PM10. The direct costs related to morbidity were calculated according to hospital treatment expenses in 2005 and the cost of premature deaths using the concept of Value of Life Year (VOLY. Results The annual population-weighted-modeled exposure to locally emitted PM2.5 in Tallinn was 11.6 μg/m3. Our analysis showed that it corresponds to 296 (95% CI 76528 premature deaths resulting in 3859 (95% CI 10236636 Years of Life Lost (YLL per year. The average decrease in life-expectancy at birth per resident of Tallinn was estimated to be 0.64 (95% CI 0.17–1.10 years. While in the polluted city centre this may reach 1.17 years, in the least polluted neighborhoods it remains between 0.1 and 0.3 years. When dividing the YLL by the number of

  6. Environmental impact assessment report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jung, K. J.; Paik, S. T.; Chung, U. S.; Jung, K. H.; Park, S. K.; Lee, D. G.; Kim, H. R.; Kim, J. K.; Yang, S. H.; Lee, B. J.; Kim, E. H.; Choi, K. S

    2000-10-01

    This report is the revised Environmental Impact Assessment Report which was made and submitted as one of the license documents for TRIGA Research Reactor D and D Project. The Environmental Impact Assessment Report includes introduction of decommissioning plan, status of reactors and environmental impact of surroundings. Also it was assessed and analyzed on radioactivity for environment, and the plan was established to minimize radioactive material release. Finally environmental monitoring plan was established to confirm whether contaminated or not from radioactivity during decommissioning period. According to the assessment results, the risk of excess exposure will be not on environment and public. The first Environmental Impact Assessment Report was submitted to the government for the license and reviewed by Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety. The first Report was revised including answers for the questions arising from review process.

  7. Model for impact assessment in human factors engineering project of PWR plants with digital control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roedel, Frederico G.; Schirru, Roberto

    2017-01-01

    New nuclear power plants are being designed with the digital Instrumentation and Control (I and C) as the backbone for the functions of protection, control, monitoring and display and with digital Human-System Interface (HSI). In this new environment, rather than play physical control actions, the operators begin to act as decision makers and, within this context, the Human Factors Engineering (HFE) has become an integral part of the projects. As the operational experience with the use of digital I and C systems and HSI is limited since, besides the small number of applications, it is proprietary, the objective of this work is to carry out an assessment in order to identify the most relevant aspects of a digital HSI project. The proposed model is based on concepts of fuzzy logic, uses MATLAB for data processing, defines criteria for evaluation and quantification of impacts in the project and has been applied to the General Principles and the Guidelines presented in the NUREG-0700. The assessment indicated that the Guidelines for User-Interface Interaction and Management, for Information Display and for Computer-Based Procedures System should be carefully evaluated in the design of a digital HSI considering the new Users Tasks Demand, the Organization of HSI Elements and the Work Environment. (author)

  8. GIS-based models for ambient PM exposure and health impact assessment for the UK

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stedman, John R; Grice, Susannah; Kent, Andrew; Cooke, Sally

    2009-01-01

    GIS-based models have been developed to map ambient PM 10 and PM 25 mass concentrations across the UK. The resulting maps are used for the assessments of air quality required by the EU ambient air quality directives, health impact assessment and the development of UK air quality policy. Maps are presented for 2006 along with projections to 2020. The largest single contribution to the UK population-weighted mean annual mean background concentrations of PM 10 in 2006 is estimated to be from secondary PM (43%), followed by the contribution from primary PM (24%). Concentrations are predicted to decline by 15% for PM 10 and 13% for PM 25 over the period from 2006 to 2020. The extent of exceedence of the 24-hour limit value is predicted to decline from 1.9% to 0.1% of urban major roads over the same period. The potential health benefits of reductions in ambient PM are large. A reduction in concentration of 0.93 μg m -3 as a result of a possible package of measures has been estimated within the UK Air Quality Strategy to result in a reduction in life years lost of approximately 2 - 4 million over a period of 100 years.

  9. Model for impact assessment in human factors engineering project of PWR plants with digital control

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roedel, Frederico G.; Schirru, Roberto, E-mail: froedel@nuclear.ufrj.br, E-mail: schirru@lmp.ufrj.br [Coordenacao de Pos-Graduacao e Pesquisa de Engenharia (COPPE/UFRJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Departamento de Engenharia Nuclear

    2017-07-01

    New nuclear power plants are being designed with the digital Instrumentation and Control (I and C) as the backbone for the functions of protection, control, monitoring and display and with digital Human-System Interface (HSI). In this new environment, rather than play physical control actions, the operators begin to act as decision makers and, within this context, the Human Factors Engineering (HFE) has become an integral part of the projects. As the operational experience with the use of digital I and C systems and HSI is limited since, besides the small number of applications, it is proprietary, the objective of this work is to carry out an assessment in order to identify the most relevant aspects of a digital HSI project. The proposed model is based on concepts of fuzzy logic, uses MATLAB for data processing, defines criteria for evaluation and quantification of impacts in the project and has been applied to the General Principles and the Guidelines presented in the NUREG-0700. The assessment indicated that the Guidelines for User-Interface Interaction and Management, for Information Display and for Computer-Based Procedures System should be carefully evaluated in the design of a digital HSI considering the new Users Tasks Demand, the Organization of HSI Elements and the Work Environment. (author)

  10. Impact of Model Detail of Synchronous Machines on Real-time Transient Stability Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Weckesser, Johannes Tilman Gabriel; Jóhannsson, Hjörtur; Østergaard, Jacob

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, it is investigated how detailed the model of a synchronous machine needs to be in order to assess transient stability using a Single Machine Equivalent (SIME). The results will show how the stability mechanism and the stability assessment are affected by the model detail. In order...... of the machine models is varied. Analyses of the results suggest that a 4th-order model may be sufficient to represent synchronous machines in transient stability studies....

  11. Life Cycle Impact Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rosenbaum, Ralph K.; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky; Boulay, Anne-Marie

    2018-01-01

    This chapter is dedicated to the third phase of an LCA study, the Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) where the life cycle inventory’s information on elementary flows is translated into environmental impact scores. In contrast to the three other LCA phases, LCIA is in practice largely automated...

  12. Evaluation of the usefulness of ecological simulation models in power plant impact assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Swartzman, G.L.; Haar, R.T.; McKenzie, D.H.

    1981-05-01

    Comparisons were made of the equations, rationale, data sources and parameter values of 26 simulation models of fish and zooplankton population dynamics and energetics and results were compared in standard notation and units, process by process. The major process categories considered were consumption, predation, metabolic processes, assimilation, growth, fecundity, recruitment and mortality. A model simulation language, AEGIS (Aquatic Ecosystem General Impact Simulator) was built to compare model equations process by process allowing convenient interchange of model equations for any process module. This simulator was parameterized to a test site, Lake Keowee, South Carolina, on which resides the Oconee Nuclear Power Station. Model parameter estimation and comparison of these models with biological monitoring data allows eveluation of ecosystem models from the standpoint of prediction of behavior under normal and perturbed conditions, organization of data into an ecosystem framework, and evaluation of data to address impact questions

  13. Modelling the Loktak Lake Basin to Assess Human Impact on Water Resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eliza, K.

    2015-12-01

    Loktak Lake is an internationally important, Ramsar designated, fresh water wetland system in the state of Manipur, India. The lake was also listed under Montreux Record on account of the ecological modifications that the lake system has witnessed over time. A characteristic feature of this lake is the extensive occurrence of coalesced, naturally or otherwise, vegetative masses floating over it. A contiguous 40 km2 area of Phumdis, as these vegetative masses are locally referred to, also constitutes the only natural home of the endemic and endangered species of Manipur's brow-antlered deer popularly known as Sangai. Appropriately notified as Keibul Lamjao National Park by Government of India, this natural feature is known to be the world's largest floating park. Water quality and sediment deposition on account of soil erosion in its catchments are some of the emerging concerns along with a reported enhanced frequency and duration of flooding of the shore areas, reduced fish catch within a visibly deteriorated overall natural ecosystem. Disturbances of watershed processes, command area management practices, ineffective as indeed largely absent, waste management practices and management interventions linked to the Loktak Hydroelectric Project are often cited as the principal triggers that are seen to be responsible for the damage. An effective management protocol for the Lake requires a rigorous understanding of its hydrobiology and eco-hydrodynamics. The present study is carried out to establish such a characterization of the various rivers systems draining directly into the Lake using MIKE SHE, MIKE 11 HD and MIKE 11 ECO Lab modelling platforms. Water quality modelling was limited to dissolved oxygen (DO), biological oxygen demand (BOD) and water temperature. Model calibration was done using the available measured water quality data. The derived results were then investigated for causal correlation with anthropogenic influences to assess human impact on water

  14. Model collaboration for the improved assessment of biomass supply, demand, and impacts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wicke, Birka; van der Hilst, Floortje; Daioglou, Vasileios; Banse, Martin; Beringer, Tim; Gerssen - Gondelach, Sarah; Heijnen, Sanne; Karssenberg, Derek; Laborde, David; Lippe, Melvin; van Meijl, Hans; Nassar, André; Powell, Jeff; Prins, Anne Gerdien; Rose, Steve N K; Smeets, Edward M W; Stehfest, Elke; Tyner, Wallace E.; Verstegen, Judith A.; Valin, Hugo; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Yeh, Sonia; Faaij, André P C

    Existing assessments of biomass supply and demand and their impacts face various types of limitations and uncertainties, partly due to the type of tools and methods applied (e.g., partial representation of sectors, lack of geographical details, and aggregated representation of technologies

  15. Model collaboration for improved assessment of biomass supply, demand and impacts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wicke, B.; et al, .

    2014-01-01

    Existing assessments of biomass supply and demand and their impacts face various types of limitations and uncertainties, partly due to the type of tools and methods applied (e.g., partial representation of sectors, lack of geographical details, and aggregated representation of technologies

  16. Model collaboration for the improved assessment of biomass supply, demand, and impacts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wicke, B.; Hilst, van der F.; Daioglou, V.; Banse, M.; Beringer, T.; Gerssen-Gondelach, S.; Heijnen, S.; Karssenberg, D.; Laborde, D.; Lippe, M.; Meijl, van H.; Nassar, A.; Powell, J.P.; Prins, A.G.; Rose, S.N.K.; Smeets, E.M.W.; Stehfest, E.; Tyner, W.E.; Verstegen, J.A.; Valin, H.; Vuuren, van D.P.; Yeh, S.; Faaij, A.P.C.

    2015-01-01

    Existing assessments of biomass supply and demand and their impacts face various types of limitations and uncertainties, partly due to the type of tools and methods applied (e.g., partial representation of sectors, lack of geographical details, and aggregated representation of technologies

  17. Assessing the impact of model spin-up on surface water-groundwater interactions using an integrated hydrologic model

    KAUST Repository

    Ajami, Hoori

    2014-03-01

    Integrated land surface-groundwater models are valuable tools in simulating the terrestrial hydrologic cycle as a continuous system and exploring the extent of land surface-subsurface interactions from catchment to regional scales. However, the fidelity of model simulations is impacted not only by the vegetation and subsurface parameterizations, but also by the antecedent condition of model state variables, such as the initial soil moisture, depth to groundwater, and ground temperature. In land surface modeling, a given model is often run repeatedly over a single year of forcing data until it reaches an equilibrium state: the point at which there is minimal artificial drift in the model state or prognostic variables (most often the soil moisture). For more complex coupled and integrated systems, where there is an increased computational cost of simulation and the number of variables sensitive to initialization is greater than in traditional uncoupled land surface modeling schemes, the challenge is to minimize the impact of initialization while using the smallest spin-up time possible. In this study, multicriteria analysis was performed to assess the spin-up behavior of the ParFlow.CLM integrated groundwater-surface water-land surface model over a 208 km2 subcatchment of the Ringkobing Fjord catchment in Denmark. Various measures of spin-up performance were computed for model state variables such as the soil moisture and groundwater storage, as well as for diagnostic variables such as the latent and sensible heat fluxes. The impacts of initial conditions on surface water-groundwater interactions were then explored. Our analysis illustrates that the determination of an equilibrium state depends strongly on the variable and performance measure used. Choosing an improper initialization of the model can generate simulations that lead to a misinterpretation of land surface-subsurface feedback processes and result in large biases in simulated discharge. Estimated spin

  18. Assessing the impact of the Nitrate Directive on farming systems using a bio-economic modelling chain

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Belhouchette, H.; Louhichi, K.; Therond, O.; Mouratiadou, I.; Wery, J.; Ittersum, van M.K.; Flichman, G.

    2011-01-01

    Bio-economic models can be used to assess the impact of policy and environmental measures through economic and environmental indicators. Focusing on agricultural systems, farmers’ decisions in terms of cropping systems and the associated crop management at field scale are essential in such studies.

  19. Assessment of Riparian Buffer Impacts Within the Little River Watershed in Georgia USA with the SWAT Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Computer based hydrologic and water quality models have proven to be useful tools for examining alternative management scenarios and their impact on the environment. This examination can be an important component of watershed-scale evaluations. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), is a water...

  20. A Hybrid Fuzzy Inference System Based on Dispersion Model for Quantitative Environmental Health Impact Assessment of Urban Transportation Planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Behnam Tashayo

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Characterizing the spatial variation of traffic-related air pollution has been and is a long-standing challenge in quantitative environmental health impact assessment of urban transportation planning. Advanced approaches are required for modeling complex relationships among traffic, air pollution, and adverse health outcomes by considering uncertainties in the available data. A new hybrid fuzzy model is developed and implemented through hierarchical fuzzy inference system (HFIS. This model is integrated with a dispersion model in order to model the effect of transportation system on the PM2.5 concentration. An improved health metric is developed as well based on a HFIS to model the impact of traffic-related PM2.5 on health. Two solutions are applied to improve the performance of both the models: the topologies of HFISs are selected according to the problem and used variables, membership functions, and rule set are determined through learning in a simultaneous manner. The capabilities of this proposed approach is examined by assessing the impacts of three traffic scenarios involved in air pollution in the city of Isfahan, Iran, and the model accuracy compared to the results of available models from literature. The advantages here are modeling the spatial variation of PM2.5 with high resolution, appropriate processing requirements, and considering the interaction between emissions and meteorological processes. These models are capable of using the available qualitative and uncertain data. These models are of appropriate accuracy, and can provide better understanding of the phenomena in addition to assess the impact of each parameter for the planners.

  1. A Model to Assess the Behavioral Impacts of Consultative Knowledge Based Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mak, Brenda; Lyytinen, Kalle

    1997-01-01

    This research model studies the behavioral impacts of consultative knowledge based systems (KBS). A study of graduate students explored to what extent their decisions were affected by user participation in updating the knowledge base; ambiguity of decision setting; routinization of usage; and source credibility of the expertise embedded in the…

  2. IMPACT 2002+, ReCiPe 2008 and ILCD’s recommended practice for characterization modelling in life cycle impact assessment: a case study-based comparison

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Owsianiak, Mikolaj; Laurent, Alexis; Bjørn, Anders

    2014-01-01

    Purpose The European Commission has launched a recommended set of characterization models and factors for application in life cycle impact assessment (LCIA). However, it is not known how this recommended practice, referred to as the ILCD 2009, performs relative to some of the most frequently used...... and ecosystems, all studied methodologies consistently identify the same window option as having the lowest and the highest environmental impact. This is mainly because few processes, associated with production of heat, dominate the total impacts, and there is a large difference in demand for heat between...... categories. The differences are somewhat smaller (within 1 order of magnitude) for the impact categories respiratory inorganics and photochemical ozone formation, and are within a factor of 3 for the remaining impact categories. The differences in impact scores in our case study are brought about...

  3. Life cycle impact assessment modeling for particulate matter: A new approach based on physico-chemical particle properties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Notter, Dominic A

    2015-09-01

    Particulate matter (PM) causes severe damage to human health globally. Airborne PM is a mixture of solid and liquid droplets suspended in air. It consists of organic and inorganic components, and the particles of concern range in size from a few nanometers to approximately 10μm. The complexity of PM is considered to be the reason for the poor understanding of PM and may also be the reason why PM in environmental impact assessment is poorly defined. Currently, life cycle impact assessment is unable to differentiate highly toxic soot particles from relatively harmless sea salt. The aim of this article is to present a new impact assessment for PM where the impact of PM is modeled based on particle physico-chemical properties. With the new method, 2781 characterization factors that account for particle mass, particle number concentration, particle size, chemical composition and solubility were calculated. Because particle sizes vary over four orders of magnitudes, a sound assessment of PM requires that the exposure model includes deposition of particles in the lungs and that the fate model includes coagulation as a removal mechanism for ultrafine particles. The effects model combines effects from particle size, solubility and chemical composition. The first results from case studies suggest that PM that stems from emissions generally assumed to be highly toxic (e.g. biomass combustion and fossil fuel combustion) might lead to results that are similar compared with an assessment of PM using established methods. However, if harmless PM emissions are emitted, established methods enormously overestimate the damage. The new impact assessment allows a high resolution of the damage allocatable to different size fractions or chemical components. This feature supports a more efficient optimization of processes and products when combating air pollution. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Evaluation of HVDC interconnection models for considering its impact in real-time voltage stability assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Perez, Angel; Jóhannsson, Hjörtur; Lund, P.

    2015-01-01

    An approach to evaluate the HVDC interconnectionsmodels to be used in real-time voltage stability assessment is proposed.The existing models for the HVDC interconnections, thatare based on voltage source converter, were studied selecting theones that are suitable for its application in Thevenin...... equivalent ´methods for voltage stability assessment. The proposed methodis to evaluate the validity of the models by using synthetizedPMU measurements from simulations and from PMUs connectedto the danish system. Wide-area measurements are used toestimate the HVDC model parameters which are needed...

  5. Computer modeling of ceramic melters to assess impacts of process and design variables on performance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eyler, L.L.; Elliott, M.L.; Lowery, P.S.; Lessor, D.L.

    1991-01-01

    Numerical and physical simulation of existing and advanced melter designs conducted to assess impacts of process and design variables on performance of ceramic melters are presented. Coupled equations of flow, thermal, and electric fields were numerically solved in time-dependent three dimensional finite volume form. Recent simulation results of a three electrode melter design with sloped walls indicate the presence of bi-modal stable flow patterns dominated by boundary conditions

  6. Assessment of the potential impacts of plant traits across environments by combining global sensitivity analysis and dynamic modeling in wheat

    OpenAIRE

    Casadebaig, Pierre; Zheng, Bangyou; Chapman, Scott; Huth, Neil; Faivre, Robert; Chenu, Karine

    2015-01-01

    A crop can be viewed as a complex system with outputs (e.g. yield) that are affected by inputs of genetic, physiology, pedo-climatic and management information. Application of numerical methods for model exploration assist in evaluating the major most influential inputs, providing the simulation model is a credible description of the biological system. A sensitivity analysis was used to assess the simulated impact on yield of a suite of traits involved in major processes of crop growth and de...

  7. Coupled water-energy modelling to assess climate change impacts on the Iberian Power System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pereira Cardenal, Silvio Javier; Madsen, H.; Riegels, N.

    and marginal costs of the power producers. Two effects of climate change on the power system were studied: changes in the hydropower production caused by changes in precipitation and temperature, and changes in the electricity demand over the year caused by temperature changes. A rainfall-runoff model......Water resources systems and power systems are strongly linked; water is needed for most power generation technologies, and electricity is required in every stage of water usage. In the Iberian Peninsula, climate change is expected to have a negative impact on the power system: changes in runoff...... was established to estimate the impact of precipitation and temperature changes on reservoir inflows. The model was calibrated using observed precipitation, temperature and river discharge time series. Potential evapotranspiration was estimated from temperature data, and snow accumulation/melt was modelled using...

  8. Development of Computer Models for the Assessment of Foreign Body Impact Events on Composite Structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bucinell, Ronald B.

    1997-01-01

    The objective of this project was to model the 5-3/4 inch pressure vessels used on the NASA RTOP program in an attempt to learn more about how impact damage forms and what are the residual effects of the resulting damage. A global-local finite element model was developed for the bottle and the states of stress in the bottles were determined down to the constituent level. The experimental data that was generated on the NASA RTOP program was not in a form that enabled the model developed under this grant to be correlated with the experimental data. As a result of this exercise it is recommended that an experimental program be designed using statistical design of experiment techniques to generate data that can be used to isolate the phenomenon that control the formation of impact damage. This data should include residual property determinations so that models for post impact structural integrity can be developed. It is also recommended that the global-local methodology be integrated directly into the finite element code. This will require considerable code development.

  9. Theoretical Assessment of the Impact of Climatic Factors in a Vibrio Cholerae Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolaye, G; Damakoa, I; Bowong, S; Houe, R; Békollè, D

    2018-05-04

    A mathematical model for Vibrio Cholerae (V. Cholerae) in a closed environment is considered, with the aim of investigating the impact of climatic factors which exerts a direct influence on the bacterial metabolism and on the bacterial reservoir capacity. We first propose a V. Cholerae mathematical model in a closed environment. A sensitivity analysis using the eFast method was performed to show the most important parameters of the model. After, we extend this V. cholerae model by taking account climatic factors that influence the bacterial reservoir capacity. We present the theoretical analysis of the model. More precisely, we compute equilibria and study their stabilities. The stability of equilibria was investigated using the theory of periodic cooperative systems with a concave nonlinearity. Theoretical results are supported by numerical simulations which further suggest the necessity to implement sanitation campaigns of aquatic environments by using suitable products against the bacteria during the periods of growth of aquatic reservoirs.

  10. Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in Zarrinehrud Basin Using SWAT Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Mansouri

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper evaluate impacts of climate change on temperature, rainfall and runoff in the future Using statistical model, LARS-WG, and conceptual hydrological model, SWAT. In order to the Zarrinehrud river basin, as the biggest catchment of the Lake Urmia basin was selected as a case study. At first, for the generation of future weather data in the basin, LARS-WG model was calibrated using meteorological data and then 14 models of AOGCM were applied and results of these models were downscaled using LARS-WG model in 6 synoptic stations for period of 2015 to 2030. SWAT model was used for evaluation of climate change impacts on runoff in the basin. In order to, the model was calibrated and validated using 6 gauging stations for period of 1987-2007 and the value of R2 was between 0.49 and 0.71 for calibration and between 0.54 and 0.77 for validation. Then by introducing average of downscaled results of AOGCM models to the SWAT, runoff changes of the basin were simulated during 2015-2030. Average of results of LARS-WG model indicated that the monthly mean of minimum and maximum temperatures will increase compared to the baseline period. Also monthly average of precipitation will decrease in spring season but will increase in summer and autumn. The results showed that in addition to the amount of precipitation, its pattern will change in the future period, too. The results of runoff simulation showed that the amount of inflow to the Zarrinehrud reservoir will reduce 28.4 percent compared to the baseline period.

  11. Coastal flooding impact evaluation using an INtegrated DisRuption Assessment (INDRA) model for Varna region, Western Black Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andreeva, Nataliya; Eftimova, Petya; Valchev, Nikolay; Prodanov, Bogdan

    2017-04-01

    The study presents evaluation and comparative analysis of storm induced flooding impacts on different coastal receptors at a scale of Varna region using INtegrated DisRuption Assessment (INDRA) model. The model was developed within the FP7 RISC-KIT project, as a part of Coastal Risk Assessment Framework (CRAF) consisting of two phases. CRAF Phase 1 is a screening process that evaluates coastal risk at a regional scale by means of coastal indices approach, which helps to identify potentially vulnerable coastal sectors: hot spots (HS). CRAF Phase 2 has the objective to assess and rank identified hotspots by detailed risk analysis done by jointly performing a hazard assessment and an impact evaluation on different categories (population, businesses, ecosystems, transport and utilities) using INDRA model at a regional level. Basically, the model assess the shock of events by estimating the impact on directly exposed to flooding hazard receptors of different vulnerability, as well as the potential ripple effects during an event in order to assess the "indirect" impacts, which occur outside the hazard area and/or continue after the event for all considered categories. The potential impacts are expressed in terms of uniform "Impact Indicators", which independently score the indirect impacts of these categories assessing disruption and recovery of the receptors. The ultimate hotspot ranking is obtained through the use of a Multi Criteria analysis (MCA) incorporated in the model, considering preferences of stakeholders. The case study area - Varna regional coast - is located on the western Black Sea, Bulgaria. The coastline, with a length of about 70 km, stretches from cape Ekrene to cape St. Atanas and includes Varna Bay. After application of CRAF Phase 1 three hotspots were selected for further analysis: Kabakum beach (HS1), Varna Central beach plus Port wall (HS2) and Artificial Island (HS3). For first two hotspots beaches and associated infrastructure are the assets

  12. Assessing the impact of marine wind farms on birds through movement modelling

    OpenAIRE

    Masden, Elizabeth A.; Reeve, Richard; Desholm, Mark; Fox, Anthony D.; Furness, Robert W.; Haydon, Daniel T.

    2012-01-01

    Advances in technology and engineering, along with European Union renewable energy targets, have stimulated a rapid growth of the wind power sector. Wind farms contribute to carbon emission reductions, but there is a need to ensure that these structures do not adversely impact the populations that interact with them, particularly birds. We developed movement models based on observed avoidance responses of common eider Somateria mollissima to wind farms to predict, and identify potential measu...

  13. A comparison of Capri and SEAMLESS-IFas Integrated Modelling Systems, Chapter 11 in Environmental and Agricultural Modelling: Integrated Approaches for Policy Impact Assessement

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Britz, W.; Perez Dominguez, I.; Heckelei, T.

    2010-01-01

    SEAMLESS-IF and CAPRI are both integrated agricultural modelling systems for policy impact assessment at EU level, linking model components across scales and between the economic and bio-physical domains. However, the overall design, focus and representation of agricultural sub-systems vary between

  14. Green Template for Life Cycle Assessment of Buildings Based on Building Information Modeling: Focus on Embodied Environmental Impact

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sungwoo Lee

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The increased popularity of building information modeling (BIM for application in the construction of eco-friendly green buildings has given rise to techniques for evaluating green buildings constructed using BIM features. Existing BIM-based green building evaluation techniques mostly rely on externally provided evaluation tools, which pose problems associated with interoperability, including a lack of data compatibility and the amount of time required for format conversion. To overcome these problems, this study sets out to develop a template (the “green template” for evaluating the embodied environmental impact of using a BIM design tool as part of BIM-based building life-cycle assessment (LCA technology development. Firstly, the BIM level of detail (LOD was determined to evaluate the embodied environmental impact, and constructed a database of the impact factors of the embodied environmental impact of the major building materials, thereby adopting an LCA-based approach. The libraries of major building elements were developed by using the established databases and compiled evaluation table of the embodied environmental impact of the building materials. Finally, the green template was developed as an embodied environmental impact evaluation tool and a case study was performed to test its applicability. The results of the green template-based embodied environmental impact evaluation of a test building were validated against those of its actual quantity takeoff (2D takeoff, and its reliability was confirmed by an effective error rate of ≤5%. This study aims to develop a system for assessing the impact of the substances discharged from concrete production process on six environmental impact categories, i.e., global warming (GWP, acidification (AP, eutrophication (EP, abiotic depletion (ADP, ozone depletion (ODP, and photochemical oxidant creation (POCP, using the life a cycle assessment (LCA method. To achieve this, we proposed an LCA method

  15. Assessing the impacts of 1.5°C of global warming - The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frieler, Katja; Warszawski, Lila; Zhao, Fang

    2017-04-01

    In Paris, France, December 2015 the Conference of Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the IPCC to provide a "special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways". In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016 the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the model simulations planned within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to address the request by providing tailored cross-sectoral consistent impacts projections. The protocol is designed to allow for 1) a separation of the impacts of the historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from other human drivers such as historical land use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations), 2) a quantification of the effects of an additional warming to 1.5°C including a potential overshoot and long term effects up to 2300 in comparison to a no-mitigation scenario (based on the low emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation scenario RCP6.0) keeping socio-economic conditions fixed at year 2005 levels, and 3) an assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios but accounting for parallel changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle of the road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2) and differential bio-energy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to reach RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. To provide the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and an analysis of cross-sectoral interactions potentially damping or amplifying sectoral impacts the protocol is designed to provide consistent impacts projections across a range of impact models from different sectors (global and regional hydrological models, global gridded crop models, global vegetation models, regional forestry models, global and regional marine

  16. Using a Numerical Model to Assess the Geomorphic Impacts of Forest Management Scenarios on Streams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davidson, S. L.; Eaton, B. C.

    2014-12-01

    In-stream large wood governs the morphology of many small to intermediate streams, while riparian vegetation influences bank strength and channel pattern. Forest management practices such as harvesting and fire suppression therefore dramatically influence channel processes and associated aquatic habitat. The primary objective of this research is to compare the impacts of three common forest scenarios - natural fire disturbance, forest harvesting with a riparian buffer, and fire suppression - on the volume of in-channel wood and the complexity of aquatic habitat in channels at a range of scales. Each scenario is explored through Monte Carlo simulations run over a period of 1000 years using a numerical reach scale channel simulator (RSCS), with variations in tree toppling rate and forest density used to represent each forest management trajectory. The habitat complexity associated with each scenario is assessed based on the area of the bed occupied by pools and spawning sized sediment, the availability of wood cover, and the probability of avulsion. Within the fire scenario, we also use the model to separately investigate the effects of root decay and recovery on equilibrium channel geometry by varying the rooting depth and associated bank strength through time. The results show that wood loading and habitat complexity are influenced by the timing and magnitude of wood recruitment, as well as channel scale. The forest harvesting scenario produces the lowest wood loads and habitat complexity so long as the buffer width is less than the average mature tree height. The natural fire cycle produces the greatest wood loading and habitat complexity, but also the greatest variability because these streams experience significant periods without wood recruitment as forests regenerate. In reaches that experience recurrent fires, width increases in the post-fire period as roots decay, at times producing a change in channel pattern when a threshold width to depth ratio is

  17. Assessing the impact of model and climate uncertainty in malaria simulations for the Kenyan Highlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tompkins, A. M.; Thomson, M. C.

    2017-12-01

    Simulations of the impact of climate variations on a vector-bornedisease such as malaria are subject to a number of sources ofuncertainty. These include the model structure and parameter settingsin addition to errors in the climate data and the neglect of theirspatial heterogeneity, especially over complex terrain. We use aconstrained genetic algorithm to confront these two sources ofuncertainty for malaria transmission in the highlands of Kenya. Thetechnique calibrates the parameter settings of a process-based,mathematical model of malaria transmission to vary within theirassessed level of uncertainty and also allows the calibration of thedriving climate data. The simulations show that in highland settingsclose to the threshold for sustained transmission, the uncertainty inclimate is more important to address than the malaria modeluncertainty. Applications of the coupled climate-malaria modelling system are briefly presented.

  18. Assessing the impact of releases of radionuclides into sewage systems in urban environment - simulation, modelling and experimental studies - LUCIA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sundelll-Bergman, S.; Avila, R.; Cruz, I. de la; Xu, S.; Puhakainen, M.; Heikkinene, T.; Rahola, T.; Hosseini, A.; Nielsen, Sven; Sigurgeirsson, M.

    2009-06-01

    This report summarises the findings of a project on assessing the impact of releases of radionuclides into sewage systems and was established to provide more knowledge and suitable tools for emergency preparedness purposes in urban areas. It was known that the design of sewage plants, and their wastewater treatments, is rather similar between the Nordic countries. One sewage plant in each of the five Nordic countries was selected for assessing the impact of radionuclide releases from hospitals into their sewerage systems. Measurements and model predictions of dose assessments to different potentially exposed members of the public were carried out. The results from the dose assessments indicate that in case of routine releases annual doses to the three hypothetical groups of individuals are most likely insignificant. Estimated doses for workers are below 10 μSv/y, for the two studied radionuclides 99mTc and 131I. If uncertainties in the predictions of activity concentrations in sludge are considered, then the probability of obtaining doses above 10 μSv/y may not be insignificant. The models and approaches developed can also be applied in case of accidental releases. A laboratory inter-comparison exercise was also organised to compare analytical results across the laboratories participating in the project, using both 131I, dominating man-made radionuclide in sewage systems due to the medical use. A process oriented model of the biological treatment is also proposed in the report that does not require as much input data as for the LUCIA model. This model is a combination of a simplified well known Activated Sludge Model No.1 (Henze, 1987) and the Kd concept used in the LUCIA model. The simplified model is able to estimate the concentrations and the retention time of the sludge in different parts of the treatment plant, which in turn, can be used as a tool for the dose assessment purpose.filled by the activity. (au)

  19. Assessing the impact of releases of radionuclides into sewage systems in urban environment - simulation, modelling and experimental studies - LUCIA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sundelll-Bergman, S. (Vattenfall Power Consultant, Stockholm (Sweden)); Avila, R.; Cruz, I. de la (Facilia AB, (Sweden)); Xu, S. (Swedish Radiation Safety Authority, (Sweden)); Puhakainen, M.; Heikkinene, T.; Rahola, T. (STUK (Finland)); Hosseini, A. (Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority (Norway)); Nielsen, Sven (Risoe National Laboratory for Sustainable Energy, DTU (Denmark)); Sigurgeirsson, M. (Geislavarnir rikisins (Iceland))

    2009-06-15

    This report summarises the findings of a project on assessing the impact of releases of radionuclides into sewage systems and was established to provide more knowledge and suitable tools for emergency preparedness purposes in urban areas. It was known that the design of sewage plants, and their wastewater treatments, is rather similar between the Nordic countries. One sewage plant in each of the five Nordic countries was selected for assessing the impact of radionuclide releases from hospitals into their sewerage systems. Measurements and model predictions of dose assessments to different potentially exposed members of the public were carried out. The results from the dose assessments indicate that in case of routine releases annual doses to the three hypothetical groups of individuals are most likely insignificant. Estimated doses for workers are below 10 muSv/y, for the two studied radionuclides 99mTc and 131I. If uncertainties in the predictions of activity concentrations in sludge are considered, then the probability of obtaining doses above 10 muSv/y may not be insignificant. The models and approaches developed can also be applied in case of accidental releases. A laboratory inter-comparison exercise was also organised to compare analytical results across the laboratories participating in the project, using both 131I, dominating man-made radionuclide in sewage systems due to the medical use. A process oriented model of the biological treatment is also proposed in the report that does not require as much input data as for the LUCIA model. This model is a combination of a simplified well known Activated Sludge Model No.1 (Henze, 1987) and the Kd concept used in the LUCIA model. The simplified model is able to estimate the concentrations and the retention time of the sludge in different parts of the treatment plant, which in turn, can be used as a tool for the dose assessment purpose.filled by the activity. (au)

  20. Applying a two-dimensional morphodynamic model to assess impacts to Chinook salmon spawning habitat from dam removal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, A. A.; Crosato, A.; Omer, A. Y. A.; Bregoli, F.

    2017-12-01

    The need for accurate and robust predictive methods of assessing fluvial ecosystems is highlighted by the accelerating practice of dam removal. Dam removal can be a restorative measure, but the sudden release of impounded sediment and change in flow regime may negatively impact aquatic biota and their habitat. This study assesses the performance of a quasi-three-dimensional morphodynamic numerical model, coupled with habitat suitability indices, to predict short-term impacts to Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) spawning habitat from dam removal. The 2007 removal of Marmot Dam on the Sandy River (Oregon, U.S.A.) is used as a case study. Delft3D-FLOW is employed to simulate changes in river channel topography, sediment composition and hydrodynamic conditions for a 20-kilometer reach of the Sandy River. The transport of non-uniform sediment and three-dimensional flow effects are included in the model. Output parameters such as flow depth, velocity and substrate are processed to evaluate habitat quality in the year following the Marmot Dam removal. Impacts are evaluated across four life-stages of Chinook salmon. As a hindcast analysis, the morphodynamic model sufficiently reproduces the evolution of river morphology at the reach-scale while requiring only a low level of calibration. The model performs well in predicting impacts to fish passage, but carries more uncertainty for developing life stages. By coupling flow-sediment-biota interactions, this method shows strong potential for habitat assessment in unsteady and non-uniform environments. Computation time is a primary constraint, as it limits grid-cell resolution, modelling of suspended sediment and capacity to characterize the sediment grain size distribution. Research on the effects of suspended sediment on habitat quality is ongoing, and further research is recommended for modelling reservoir erosion processes numerically.

  1. Model Evaluation and Uncertainty in Agricultural Impacts Assessments: Results and Strategies from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenzweig, C.; Hatfield, J.; Jones, J. W.; Ruane, A. C.

    2012-12-01

    The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is an international effort to assess the state of global agricultural modeling and to understand climate impacts on the agricultural sector. AgMIP connects the climate science, crop modeling, and agricultural economic modeling communities to generate probabilistic projections of current and future climate impacts. The goals of AgMIP are to improve substantially the characterization of risk of hunger and world food security due to climate change and to enhance adaptation capacity in both developing and developed countries. This presentation will describe the general approach of AgMIP, highlight AgMIP efforts to evaluate climate, crop, and economic models, and discuss AgMIP uncertainty assessments. Model evaluation efforts will be outlined using examples from various facets of AgMIP, including climate scenario generation, the wheat crop model intercomparison, and the global agricultural economics model intercomparison being led in collaboration with the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP). Strategies developed to quantify uncertainty in each component of AgMIP, as well as the propagation of uncertainty through the climate-crop-economic modeling framework, will be detailed and preliminary uncertainty assessments that highlight crucial areas requiring improved models and data collection will be introduced.

  2. Object-Oriented Bayesian Networks (OOBN) for Aviation Accident Modeling and Technology Portfolio Impact Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shih, Ann T.; Ancel, Ersin; Jones, Sharon M.

    2012-01-01

    The concern for reducing aviation safety risk is rising as the National Airspace System in the United States transforms to the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). The NASA Aviation Safety Program is committed to developing an effective aviation safety technology portfolio to meet the challenges of this transformation and to mitigate relevant safety risks. The paper focuses on the reasoning of selecting Object-Oriented Bayesian Networks (OOBN) as the technique and commercial software for the accident modeling and portfolio assessment. To illustrate the benefits of OOBN in a large and complex aviation accident model, the in-flight Loss-of-Control Accident Framework (LOCAF) constructed as an influence diagram is presented. An OOBN approach not only simplifies construction and maintenance of complex causal networks for the modelers, but also offers a well-organized hierarchical network that is easier for decision makers to exploit the model examining the effectiveness of risk mitigation strategies through technology insertions.

  3. Environmental impact assessment of transportation projects: An analysis using an integrated GIS, remote sensing, and spatial modeling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    El-Gafy, Mohamed Anwar

    Transportation projects will have impact on the environment. The general environmental pollution and damage caused by roads is closely associated with the level of economic activity. Although Environmental Impact Assessments (EIAs) are dependent on geo-spatial information in order to make an assessment, there are no rules per se how to conduct an environmental assessment. Also, the particular objective of each assessment is dictated case-by-case, based on what information and analyses are required. The conventional way of Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) study is a time consuming process because it has large number of dependent and independent variables which have to be taken into account, which also have different consequences. With the emergence of satellite remote sensing technology and Geographic Information Systems (GIS), this research presents a new framework for the analysis phase of the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) for transportation projects based on the integration between remote sensing technology, geographic information systems, and spatial modeling. By integrating the merits of the map overlay method and the matrix method, the framework analyzes comprehensively the environmental vulnerability around the road and its impact on the environment. This framework is expected to: (1) improve the quality of the decision making process, (2) be applied both to urban and inter-urban projects, regardless of transport mode, and (3) present the data and make the appropriate analysis to support the decision of the decision-makers and allow them to present these data to the public hearings in a simple manner. Case studies, transportation projects in the State of Florida, were analyzed to illustrate the use of the decision support framework and demonstrate its capabilities. This cohesive and integrated system will facilitate rational decisions through cost effective coordination of environmental information and data management that can be tailored to

  4. Assessment of the impact of modeling axial compression on PET image reconstruction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belzunce, Martin A; Reader, Andrew J

    2017-10-01

    To comprehensively evaluate both the acceleration and image-quality impacts of axial compression and its degree of modeling in fully 3D PET image reconstruction. Despite being used since the very dawn of 3D PET reconstruction, there are still no extensive studies on the impact of axial compression and its degree of modeling during reconstruction on the end-point reconstructed image quality. In this work, an evaluation of the impact of axial compression on the image quality is performed by extensively simulating data with span values from 1 to 121. In addition, two methods for modeling the axial compression in the reconstruction were evaluated. The first method models the axial compression in the system matrix, while the second method uses an unmatched projector/backprojector, where the axial compression is modeled only in the forward projector. The different system matrices were analyzed by computing their singular values and the point response functions for small subregions of the FOV. The two methods were evaluated with simulated and real data for the Biograph mMR scanner. For the simulated data, the axial compression with span values lower than 7 did not show a decrease in the contrast of the reconstructed images. For span 11, the standard sinogram size of the mMR scanner, losses of contrast in the range of 5-10 percentage points were observed when measured for a hot lesion. For higher span values, the spatial resolution was degraded considerably. However, impressively, for all span values of 21 and lower, modeling the axial compression in the system matrix compensated for the spatial resolution degradation and obtained similar contrast values as the span 1 reconstructions. Such approaches have the same processing times as span 1 reconstructions, but they permit significant reduction in storage requirements for the fully 3D sinograms. For higher span values, the system has a large condition number and it is therefore difficult to recover accurately the higher

  5. Application of dynamic modeling for assessing the impact of radioactive releases to water sewer systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sundell-Bergman, Synnove; Avila, Rodolfo; Cruz, Idalmis de la

    2008-01-01

    Full text: Potential radiological emergencies due to accidental or malicious acts involving nuclear materials requires tools for emergency dose assessment to help in the planning of countermeasures. In urban areas, the municipal sewage systems will receive the wastewater from households, industries and hospitals as well as the run-off water. Investigations have shown that sewage sludge is a sensitive indicator for radionuclides released from hospitals or spread via the atmosphere and thus simulation modelling of the fate of radionuclides entering sewage treatment plants via urban drainage systems could prove useful in emergency situations. A dynamic model (LUCIA) has been developed to assess the radiological consequences of non-homogenous releases of radionuclides to the sewage plants. In the first step the focussing has been on radioactive liquid releases from hospitals and the predictions show that there is a significant probability (> 0,2) that the sewage worker doses exceed 10 μSv/y while doses to farmers or fishermen (downstream plants) are marginal. Comparison of measured and estimated concentration values for iodine-131 reveal that the predictions made by LUCIA are reasonably good and fall within a factor of 2. For the purpose of emergency preparedness, scenarios have been defined and the fate of released radionuclides has been assessed. The main features of the LUCIA model will be presented and the application of the tool for emergency preparedness will be discussed. (author)

  6. Modelling and assessment of the impact of radiocesium and radiostrontium contamination in the Thermaikos Gulf, Greece

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eleftheriou, G.; Monte, L.; Brittain, J.E.; Tsabaris, C.

    2015-01-01

    A radiological model for 137 Cs and 90 Sr dispersion in the marine environment of the Thermaikos Gulf, Greece, and the river catchments draining into the Gulf, is presented. The model, developed and implemented within the MOIRA-PLUS decision support system, integrates appropriate site-specific information. The model's performance has been tested using the available empirical 137 Cs activity concentration data in abiotic and biotic components of the gulf since the Chernobyl accident. Further, this paper describes the results of a modelling exercise performed within the IAEA's EMRAS II international modelling programme to estimate the environmental sensitivity of this characteristic Mediterranean coastal marine environment following radioactive contamination. The radiation doses to humans after a single hypothetical instantaneous deposition of 1000 Bq m −2 , assuming that all of their food intake from the marine pathway comes from the local environment, were calculated. The obtained results are consistent with estimates from other models for different coastal marine environments in the frame of the above-mentioned EMRAS exercise. - Highlights: • The Decision Support System (DSS) MOIRA-PLUS was customised to Thermaikos Gulf. • Model results were compared with empirical data to adjust parameter values. • The environmental sensitivity of the Gulf to 90 Sr and 137 Cs pollution was assessed. • Radiation doses from marine and fresh water pathways were compared. • The dose from fresh water pathways is notably higher than that from marine pathways

  7. Modelling and assessment of the impact of radiocesium and radiostrontium contamination in the Thermaikos Gulf, Greece

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eleftheriou, G., E-mail: gelefthe@central.ntua.gr [Department of Physics, National Technical University of Athens (Greece); Institute of Oceanography, Hellenic Centre for Marine Research (Greece); Monte, L., E-mail: monte.luigi@fastwebnet.it [ENEA, Roma (Italy); Brittain, J.E. [Natural History Museum, University of Oslo (Norway); Tsabaris, C. [Institute of Oceanography, Hellenic Centre for Marine Research (Greece)

    2015-11-15

    A radiological model for {sup 137}Cs and {sup 90}Sr dispersion in the marine environment of the Thermaikos Gulf, Greece, and the river catchments draining into the Gulf, is presented. The model, developed and implemented within the MOIRA-PLUS decision support system, integrates appropriate site-specific information. The model's performance has been tested using the available empirical {sup 137}Cs activity concentration data in abiotic and biotic components of the gulf since the Chernobyl accident. Further, this paper describes the results of a modelling exercise performed within the IAEA's EMRAS II international modelling programme to estimate the environmental sensitivity of this characteristic Mediterranean coastal marine environment following radioactive contamination. The radiation doses to humans after a single hypothetical instantaneous deposition of 1000 Bq m{sup −2}, assuming that all of their food intake from the marine pathway comes from the local environment, were calculated. The obtained results are consistent with estimates from other models for different coastal marine environments in the frame of the above-mentioned EMRAS exercise. - Highlights: • The Decision Support System (DSS) MOIRA-PLUS was customised to Thermaikos Gulf. • Model results were compared with empirical data to adjust parameter values. • The environmental sensitivity of the Gulf to {sup 90}Sr and {sup 137}Cs pollution was assessed. • Radiation doses from marine and fresh water pathways were compared. • The dose from fresh water pathways is notably higher than that from marine pathways.

  8. Assessment of Fluctuating Reservoir Elevations Using Hydraulic Models and Impacts to Larval Pacific Lamprey Rearing Habitat in the Bonneville Pool

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mueller, Robert P. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Rakowski, Cynthia L. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Perkins, William A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Richmond, Marshall C. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-02-24

    This report presents the results of a modeling assessment of likely lamprey larval habitat that may be impacted by dewatering of the major tributary delta regions in the Bonneville Pool of the Columbia River. This assessment was conducted by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Portland District (CENWP). The goal of the study was to provide baseline data about how the regions of interest would potentially be impacted at three river flows (10, 50, and 90 percent exceedance flow) for four different forebay elevations at Bonneville Dam. Impacts of unsteady flows at The Dalles Dam and changing forebay elevation at Bonneville Dam for a 2-week period were also assessed. The area of dewatered regions was calculated by importing modeled data outputs into a GIS and then calculating the change in inundated area near tributary deltas for the four Bonneville forebay surface elevations. From the modeled output we determined that the overall change in area is less sensitive to elevations changes during higher river discharges. Changing the forebay elevation at Bonneville and the resulting impact to total dewatered regions was greater at the lowest modeled river flow (97 kcfs) and showed the greatest variation at the White Salmon/Hood River delta regions followed by the Wind, Klickitat and the Little White Salmon rivers. To understand how inundation might change on a daily and hourly basis. Unsteady flow models were run for a 2-week period in 2002 and compared to 2014. The water surface elevation in the upstream pool closely follows that of the Bonneville Dam forebay with rapid changes of 1 to 2-ft possible. The data shows that 2.5-ft variation in water surface elevation occurred during this period in 2002 and a 3.7-ft change occurred in 2014. The duration of these changes were highly variable and generally did not stay constant for more than a 5-hr period.

  9. Review of uncertainty estimates associated with models for assessing the impact of breeder reactor radioactivity releases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, C.; Little, C.A.

    1982-08-01

    The purpose is to summarize estimates based on currently available data of the uncertainty associated with radiological assessment models. The models being examined herein are those recommended previously for use in breeder reactor assessments. Uncertainty estimates are presented for models of atmospheric and hydrologic transport, terrestrial and aquatic food-chain bioaccumulation, and internal and external dosimetry. Both long-term and short-term release conditions are discussed. The uncertainty estimates presented in this report indicate that, for many sites, generic models and representative parameter values may be used to calculate doses from annual average radionuclide releases when these calculated doses are on the order of one-tenth or less of a relevant dose limit. For short-term, accidental releases, especially those from breeder reactors located in sites dominated by complex terrain and/or coastal meteorology, the uncertainty in the dose calculations may be much larger than an order of magnitude. As a result, it may be necessary to incorporate site-specific information into the dose calculation under these circumstances to reduce this uncertainty. However, even using site-specific information, natural variability and the uncertainties in the dose conversion factor will likely result in an overall uncertainty of greater than an order of magnitude for predictions of dose or concentration in environmental media following shortterm releases

  10. Assessment of Traffic Noise Impacts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rich, Jeppe Husted; Nielsen, Otto Anker

    2004-01-01

    A steady growth in traffic intensities in most urban areas throughout the world has forced planners and politicians to seriously consider the resulting environmental impact, such as traffic noise, accidents and air pollution. The assessment of such negative factors is needed in order to reveal...... the true social benefit of infrastructure plans. The paper presents a noise assessment model for the Copenhagen region, which brings together GIS technology and non-linear hedonic regression models to reveal the implicit costs of traffic noise measured as the marginal percentage loss in property values...

  11. Coupling hydrological and impact assessment models to explore nutrient cycling in freshwater systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouwman, Lex; van Beek, Rens; Beusen, Arthur; Mogollón, José; Middelburg, Jack

    2016-04-01

    The IMAGE-Global Nutrient Model (GNM) is a new globally distributed, spatially explicit model in which the hydrology model PCR-GLOBWB is coupled to the integrated assessment model IMAGE to simulate nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) delivery, and then with a spiraling ecological approach to simulating instream biogeochemistry. Routing the water with dissolved and suspended N and P from upstream grid cells occurs simultaneous with N and P delivery to water bodies within grid cells from diffuse and point sources (wastewater). IMAGE-GNM describes the following diffuse sources associated with the water flow: surface runoff, shallow and deep groundwater, riparian zones. Depending on the landscape features, all these flows may be present within one grid cell. Furthermore, diffuse N and P inputs occur through allochtonous organic matter inputs via litterfall in (temporarily) inundated river floodplains, and atmospheric deposition. In the spiraling concept, the residence time of the water and nutrient uptake velocity determine N and P retention in water bodies. Validation of model results with observations yields acceptable agreement given the global scale of the uncalibrated model. Sensitivity analysis shows shifts in the importance of the different sources, with decreasing importance of natural sources and increasing influence of wastewater and agriculture. IMAGE-GNM can be employed to study the interaction between society and the environment over prolonged time periods. Here we show results for the full 20th century.

  12. Assessing Regional-Scale Impacts of Short Rotation Coppices on Ecosystem Services by Modeling Land-Use Decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schulze, Jule; Frank, Karin; Priess, Joerg A; Meyer, Markus A

    2016-01-01

    Meeting the world's growing energy demand through bioenergy production involves extensive land-use change which could have severe environmental and social impacts. Second generation bioenergy feedstocks offer a possible solution to this problem. They have the potential to reduce land-use conflicts between food and bioenergy production as they can be grown on low quality land not suitable for food production. However, a comprehensive impact assessment that considers multiple ecosystem services (ESS) and biodiversity is needed to identify the environmentally best feedstock option, as trade-offs are inherent. In this study, we simulate the spatial distribution of short rotation coppices (SRCs) in the landscape of the Mulde watershed in Central Germany by modeling profit-maximizing farmers under different economic and policy-driven scenarios using a spatially explicit economic simulation model. This allows to derive general insights and a mechanistic understanding of regional-scale impacts on multiple ESS in the absence of large-scale implementation. The modeled distribution of SRCs, required to meet the regional demand of combined heat and power (CHP) plants for solid biomass, had little or no effect on the provided ESS. In the policy-driven scenario, placing SRCs on low or high quality soils to provide ecological focus areas, as required within the Common Agricultural Policy in the EU, had little effect on ESS. Only a substantial increase in the SRC production area, beyond the regional demand of CHP plants, had a relevant effect, namely a negative impact on food production as well as a positive impact on biodiversity and regulating ESS. Beneficial impacts occurred for single ESS. However, the number of sites with balanced ESS supply hardly increased due to larger shares of SRCs in the landscape. Regression analyses showed that the occurrence of sites with balanced ESS supply was more strongly driven by biophysical factors than by the SRC share in the landscape. This

  13. Dynamic behavioural model for assessing impact of regeneration actions on system availability: Application to weapon systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monnin, Maxime; Iung, Benoit; Senechal, Olivier

    2011-01-01

    Mastering system availability all along the system life cycle is now a critical issue with regards to systems engineering. It is more true for military systems which operate in a battle context. Indeed as they must act in a hostile environment, they can become unavailable due to failures of or damage to the system. In both cases, system regeneration is required to restore its availability. Many approaches based on system modelling have been developed to assess availability. However, very few of them take battlefield damage into account and relevant methods for the model development are missing. In this paper, a modelling method for architecture of weapon system of systems that supports regeneration engineering is proposed. On the one hand, this method relies on a unified failure/damage approach to extend acknowledged availability models. It allows to integrate failures, damages, as well as the possibility of regeneration, into operational availability assessment. Architectures are modelled as a set of operational functions, supported by components that belong to platform (system). Modelling atoms (i.e. elementary units of modelling) for both the architecture components and functions are defined, based on state-space formalism. Monte Carlo method is used to estimate availability through simulation. Availability of the architecture is defined on the basis of the possible states of the required functions for a mission. The states of a function directly depend on the state of the corresponding components (i.e. the components that support the function). Aggregation rules define the state of the function knowing the states of each component. Aggregation is defined by means of combinatorial equations of the component states. The modelling approach is supported by means of stochastic activity network for the models simulation. Results are analysed in terms of graphs of availability for mission's days. Thus, given the simulation results, it is possible to plan combat

  14. Enhancing a rainfall-runoff model to assess the impacts of BMPs and LID practices on storm runoff.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yaoze; Ahiablame, Laurent M; Bralts, Vincent F; Engel, Bernard A

    2015-01-01

    Best management practices (BMPs) and low impact development (LID) practices are increasingly being used as stormwater management techniques to reduce the impacts of urban development on hydrology and water quality. To assist planners and decision-makers at various stages of development projects (planning, implementation, and evaluation), user-friendly tools are needed to assess the effectiveness of BMPs and LID practices. This study describes a simple tool, the Long-Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment-LID (L-THIA-LID), which is enhanced with additional BMPs and LID practices, improved approaches to estimate hydrology and water quality, and representation of practices in series (meaning combined implementation). The tool was used to evaluate the performance of BMPs and LID practices individually and in series with 30 years of daily rainfall data in four types of idealized land use units and watersheds (low density residential, high density residential, industrial, and commercial). Simulation results were compared with the results of other published studies. The simulated results showed that reductions in runoff volume and pollutant loads after implementing BMPs and LID practices, both individually and in series, were comparable with the observed impacts of these practices. The L-THIA-LID 2.0 model is capable of assisting decision makers in evaluating environmental impacts of BMPs and LID practices, thereby improving the effectiveness of stormwater management decisions. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Examining the Impact of Video Modeling Techniques on the Efficacy of Clinical Voice Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Werner, Cara; Bowyer, Samantha; Weinrich, Barbara; Gottliebson, Renee; Brehm, Susan Baker

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of the current study was to determine whether or not presenting patients with a video model improves efficacy of the assessment as defined by efficiency and decreased variability in trials during the acoustic component of voice evaluations. Twenty pediatric participants with a mean age of 7.6 years (SD = 1.50; range = 6-11 years), 32 college-age participants with a mean age of 21.32 years (SD = 1.61; range = 18-30 years), and 17 adult participants with a mean age of 54.29 years (SD = 2.78; range = 50-70 years) were included in the study and divided into experimental and control groups. The experimental group viewed a training video prior to receiving verbal instructions and performing acoustic assessment tasks, whereas the control group received verbal instruction only prior to completing the acoustic assessment. Primary measures included the number of clinician cues required and instructional time. Standard deviations of acoustic measurements (eg, minimum and maximum frequency) were also examined to determine effects on stability. Individuals in the experimental group required significantly less cues, P = 0.012, compared to the control group. Although some trends were observed in instructional time and stability of measurements, no significant differences were observed. The findings of this study may be useful for speech-language pathologists in regard to improving assessment of patients' voice disorders with the use of video modeling. Copyright © 2017 The Voice Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Reporting, Visualization, and Modeling of Immunogenicity Data to Assess Its Impact on Pharmacokinetics, Efficacy, and Safety of Monoclonal Antibodies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Passey, Chaitali; Suryawanshi, Satyendra; Sanghavi, Kinjal; Gupta, Manish

    2018-02-26

    The rapidly increasing number of therapeutic biologics in development has led to a growing recognition of the need for improvements in immunogenicity assessment. Published data are often inadequate to assess the impact of an antidrug antibody (ADA) on pharmacokinetics, safety, and efficacy, and enable a fully informed decision about patient management in the event of ADA development. The recent introduction of detailed regulatory guidance for industry should help address many past inadequacies in immunogenicity assessment. Nonetheless, careful analysis of gathered data and clear reporting of results are critical to a full understanding of the clinical relevance of ADAs, but have not been widely considered in published literature to date. Here, we review visualization and modeling of immunogenicity data. We present several relatively simple visualization techniques that can provide preliminary information about the kinetics and magnitude of ADA responses, and their impact on pharmacokinetics and clinical endpoints for a given therapeutic protein. We focus on individual sample- and patient-level data, which can be used to build a picture of any trends, thereby guiding analysis of the overall study population. We also discuss methods for modeling ADA data to investigate the impact of immunogenicity on pharmacokinetics, efficacy, and safety.

  17. Validity and sensitivity of a model for assessment of impacts of river floodplain reconstruction on protected and endangered species

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nooij, R.J.W. de; Lotterman, K.M.; Sande, P.H.J. van de; Pelsma, T.; Leuven, R.S.E.W.; Lenders, H.J.R.

    2006-01-01

    Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) must account for legally protected and endangered species. Uncertainties relating to the validity and sensitivity of EIA arise from predictions and valuation of effects on these species. This paper presents a validity and sensitivity analysis of a model (BIO-SAFE) for assessment of impacts of land use changes and physical reconstruction measures on legally protected and endangered river species. The assessment is based on links between species (higher plants, birds, mammals, reptiles and amphibians, butterflies and dragon- and damselflies) and ecotopes (landscape ecological units, e.g., river dune, soft wood alluvial forests), and on value assignment to protected and endangered species using different valuation criteria (i.e., EU Habitats and Birds directive, Conventions of Bern and Bonn and Red Lists). The validity of BIO-SAFE has been tested by comparing predicted effects of landscape changes on the diversity of protected and endangered species with observed changes in biodiversity in five reconstructed floodplains. The sensitivity of BIO-SAFE to value assignment has been analysed using data of a Strategic Environmental Assessment concerning the Spatial Planning Key Decision for reconstruction of the Dutch floodplains of the river Rhine, aimed at flood defence and ecological rehabilitation. The weights given to the valuation criteria for protected and endangered species were varied and the effects on ranking of alternatives were quantified. A statistically significant correlation (p < 0.01) between predicted and observed values for protected and endangered species was found. The sensitivity of the model to value assignment proved to be low. Comparison of five realistic valuation options showed that different rankings of scenarios predominantly occur when valuation criteria are left out of the assessment. Based on these results we conclude that linking species to ecotopes can be used for adequate impact assessments

  18. Assessing the Carbon Impact of ICT Measures: A Case Study Investigation Using Latis1 Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kathryn Stewart

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Fostering co-modality and consequently reducing carbon emissions is a leading objective of the Scottish and UK governments and the wider EU and worldwide community. The achievement of such goals can be facilitated by the adoption of ICT measures within the transport systems. Over recent years, many online and mobile applications have emerged which improve the usability and attractiveness of more sustainable transport modes (such as public transport, taxis, and cycling and can help to utilise private cars more effectively by promoting and enabling car-sharing and car-pooling. The recently completed FP7 funded EU project COMPASS has investigated the impact of a range of Information and Communication Technology (ICT tools which have the potential to improve co-modality. This paper discusses the results of Scotland specific modelling which demonstrates and quantifies the relative carbon/congestion reductions feasible from ICT measures to improve bus journey times and ICT measures to improve car-sharing. It may be seen that measures which act to decrease overall car usage have more impact on reduction of carbon emissions than measures to improve public transport travel-times.

  19. The inherent dangers of using computable general equilibrium models as a single integrated modelling framework for sustainability impact assessment. A critical note on Boehringer and Loeschel (2006)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scrieciu, S. Serban

    2007-01-01

    The search for methods of assessment that best evaluate and integrate the trade-offs and interactions between the economic, environmental and social components of development has been receiving a new impetus due to the requirement that sustainability concerns be incorporated into the policy formulation process. A paper forthcoming in Ecological Economics (Boehringer, C., Loeschel, A., in press. Computable general equilibrium models for sustainability impact assessment: status quo and prospects, Ecological Economics.) claims that Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models may potentially represent the much needed 'back-bone' tool to carry out reliable integrated quantitative Sustainability Impact Assessments (SIAs). While acknowledging the usefulness of CGE models for some dimensions of SIA, this commentary questions the legitimacy of employing this particular economic modelling tool as a single integrating modelling framework for a comprehensive evaluation of the multi-dimensional, dynamic and complex interactions between policy and sustainability. It discusses several inherent dangers associated with the advocated prospects for the CGE modelling approach to contribute to comprehensive and reliable sustainability impact assessments. The paper warns that this reductionist viewpoint may seriously infringe upon the basic values underpinning the SIA process, namely a transparent, heterogeneous, balanced, inter-disciplinary, consultative and participatory take to policy evaluation and building of the evidence-base. (author)

  20. Hydrological modeling of the pipestone creek watershed using the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT: Assessing impacts of wetland drainage on hydrology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cesar Perez-Valdivia

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Study region: Prairie Pothole Region of North America. Study focus: The Prairie Pothole Region of North America has experienced extensive wetland drainage, potentially impacting peak flows and annual flow volumes. Some of this drainage has occurred in closed basins, possibly impacting lake water levels of these systems. In this study we investigated the potential impact of wetland drainage on peak flows and annual volumes in a 2242 km2 watershed located in southeastern Saskatchewan (Canada using the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT model. New hydrological insights: The SWAT model, which had been calibrated and validated at daily and monthly time steps for the 1997–2009 period, was used to assess the impact of wetland drainage using three hypothetical scenarios that drained 15, 30, and 50% of the non-contributing drainage area. Results of these simulations suggested that drainage increased spring peak flows by about 50, 79 and 113%, respectively while annual flow volumes increased by about 43, 68, and 98% in each scenario. Years that were wetter than normal presented increased peak flows and annual flow volumes below the average of the simulated period. Alternatively, summer peak flows presented smaller increases in terms of percentages during the simulated period. Keywords: Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT, Wetland drainage, Peak flow, Annual volume, Prairie Pothole Region

  1. Assessing the Impact of Antidrug Advertising on Adolescent Drug Consumption: Results From a Behavioral Economic Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Block, Lauren G.; Morwitz, Vicki G.; Putsis, William P.; Sen, Subrata K.

    2002-01-01

    Objectives. This study examined whether adolescents’ recall of antidrug advertising is associated with a decreased probability of using illicit drugs and, given drug use, a reduced volume of use. Methods. A behavioral economic model of influences on drug consumption was developed with survey data from a nationally representative sample of adolescents to determine the incremental impact of antidrug advertising. Results. The findings provided evidence that recall of antidrug advertising was associated with a lower probability of marijuana and cocaine/crack use. Recall of such advertising was not associated with the decision of how much marijuana or cocaine/crack to use. Results suggest that individuals predisposed to try marijuana are also predisposed to try cocaine/crack. Conclusions. The present results provide support for the effectiveness of antidrug advertising programs. (Am J Public Health. 2002;92:1346–1351) PMID:12144995

  2. Assessing and optimizing the economic and environmental impacts of cogeneration/district energy systems using an energy equilibrium model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Y.J.; Rosen, M.A.

    1999-01-01

    Energy equilibrium models can be valuable aids in energy planning and decision-making. In such models, supply is represented by a cost-minimizing linear submodel and demand by a smooth vector-valued function of prices. In this paper, we use the energy equilibrium model to study conventional systems and cogeneration-based district energy (DE) systems for providing heating, cooling and electrical services, not only to assess the potential economic and environmental benefits of cogeneration-based DE systems, but also to develop optimal configurations while accounting for such factors as economics and environmental impact. The energy equilibrium model is formulated and solved with software called WATEMS, which uses sequential non-linear programming to calculate the intertemporal equilibrium of energy supplies and demands. The methods of analysis and evaluation for the economic and environmental impacts are carefully explored. An illustrative energy equilibrium model of conventional and cogeneration-based DE systems is developed within WATEMS to compare quantitatively the economic and environmental impacts of those systems for various scenarios. (Copyright (c) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V., Amsterdam. All rights reserved.)

  3. Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming – simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Frieler

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC to provide a special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways. In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the response devised within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP to provide tailored, cross-sectorally consistent impact projections to broaden the scientific basis for the report. The simulation protocol is designed to allow for (1 separation of the impacts of historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from impacts of other drivers such as historical land-use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations; (2 quantification of the impacts of additional warming up to 1.5 °C, including a potential overshoot and long-term impacts up to 2299, and comparison to higher levels of global mean temperature change (based on the low-emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation pathway RCP6.0 with socio-economic conditions fixed at 2005 levels; and (3 assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios while accounting for simultaneous changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle-of-the-road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2, Fricko et al., 2016 and in particular differential bioenergy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to comply with RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. With the aim of providing the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and analysis of cross-sectoral interactions that may dampen or amplify sectoral impacts, the protocol is designed to facilitate consistent impact projections from a range of impact models across

  4. Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming - simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frieler, Katja; Lange, Stefan; Piontek, Franziska; Reyer, Christopher P. O.; Schewe, Jacob; Warszawski, Lila; Zhao, Fang; Chini, Louise; Denvil, Sebastien; Emanuel, Kerry; Geiger, Tobias; Halladay, Kate; Hurtt, George; Mengel, Matthias; Murakami, Daisuke; Ostberg, Sebastian; Popp, Alexander; Riva, Riccardo; Stevanovic, Miodrag; Suzuki, Tatsuo; Volkholz, Jan; Burke, Eleanor; Ciais, Philippe; Ebi, Kristie; Eddy, Tyler D.; Elliott, Joshua; Galbraith, Eric; Gosling, Simon N.; Hattermann, Fred; Hickler, Thomas; Hinkel, Jochen; Hof, Christian; Huber, Veronika; Jägermeyr, Jonas; Krysanova, Valentina; Marcé, Rafael; Müller Schmied, Hannes; Mouratiadou, Ioanna; Pierson, Don; Tittensor, Derek P.; Vautard, Robert; van Vliet, Michelle; Biber, Matthias F.; Betts, Richard A.; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Deryng, Delphine; Frolking, Steve; Jones, Chris D.; Lotze, Heike K.; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Sahajpal, Ritvik; Thonicke, Kirsten; Tian, Hanqin; Yamagata, Yoshiki

    2017-11-01

    In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways. In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the response devised within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to provide tailored, cross-sectorally consistent impact projections to broaden the scientific basis for the report. The simulation protocol is designed to allow for (1) separation of the impacts of historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from impacts of other drivers such as historical land-use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations); (2) quantification of the impacts of additional warming up to 1.5 °C, including a potential overshoot and long-term impacts up to 2299, and comparison to higher levels of global mean temperature change (based on the low-emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation pathway RCP6.0) with socio-economic conditions fixed at 2005 levels; and (3) assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios while accounting for simultaneous changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle-of-the-road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2, Fricko et al., 2016) and in particular differential bioenergy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to comply with RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. With the aim of providing the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and analysis of cross-sectoral interactions that may dampen or amplify sectoral impacts, the protocol is designed to facilitate consistent impact projections from a range of impact models across different sectors (global

  5. Multi-model assessment of health impacts of air pollution in Europe and the U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Im, Ulas; Brandt, Jørgen; Christensen, Jesper H.; Geels, Camilla; Hansen, Kaj M.; Andersen, Mikael S.; Solazzo, Efisio; Hogrefe, Christian; Galmarini, Stefano

    2017-04-01

    According to the World Health Organization (WHO), air pollution is now the world's largest single environmental health risk. Assessments of health impacts and the associated external costs related to air pollution are estimated based on observed and/or modelled air pollutant levels. Chemistry and transport models (CTMs) are useful tools to calculate the concentrations of health-related pollutants taking into account the non-linearities in the chemistry and the complex interactions between meteorology and chemistry. However, the CTMs include different chemical and aerosol schemes that introduce differences in the representation of the processes. Likewise, will differences in the emissions and boundary conditions used in the models add to the overall uncertainties. These uncertainties are introduced also into the health impact estimates using output from the CTMs. Multi-model (MM) ensembles can be useful to minimize these uncertainties introduced by the individual CTMs. In the present study, the simulated surface concentrations of health related air pollutants for the year 2010 from fifteen modelling groups participating in the AQMEII exercise, serve as input to the Economic Valuation of Air Pollution model (EVA), in order to calculate the impacts of these pollutants on human health and the associated external costs in Europe and U.S. In addition, the impacts of a 20% global emission reduction scenario on the human health and associated costs have been calculated. Preliminary results show that in Europe and U.S., the MM mean number of premature deaths due to air pollution is calculated to be 400 000 and 160 000, respectively. Estimated health impacts among different models can vary up to a factor of 3 and 1.2 in Europe and U.S., respectively. PM is calculated to be the major pollutant affecting the health impacts and the differences in models regarding the treatment of aerosol composition, physics and dynamics is a key factor. The total MM mean costs due to health

  6. ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT AND MONITORING ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    protect the environment, it is imperative to conduct environmental impact assessment ... Ethiopia enacted the Environmental Impact Assessment Proclamation in 2002 ... flora, fauna, soil, air, water, climate, natural or cultural heritage, other.

  7. Plant functional modelling as a basis for assessing the impact of management on plant safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rasmussen, Birgitte; Petersen, Kurt E.

    1999-01-01

    A major objective of the present work is to provide means for representing a chemical process plant as a socio-technical system, so as to allow hazard identification at a high level in order to identify major targets for safety development. The main phases of the methodology are: (1) preparation of a plant functional model where a set of plant functions describes coherently hardware, software, operations, work organization and other safety related aspects. The basic principle is that any aspect of the plant can be represented by an object based upon an Intent and associated with each Intent are Methods, by which the Intent is realized, and Constraints, which limit the Intent. (2) Plant level hazard identification based on keywords/checklists and the functional model. (3) Development of incident scenarios and selection of hazardous situation with different safety characteristics. (4) Evaluation of the impact of management on plant safety through interviews. (5) Identification of safety critical ways of action in the management system, i.e. identification of possible error- and violation-producing conditions

  8. Assessment of environmental impact models in natural occurring radionuclides solid wastes disposal from the mineral industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pontedeiro, Elizabeth May Braga Dulley

    2006-07-01

    This work evaluates the behavior of wastes with naturally occurring radionuclides as generated by the mineral industry and their final disposal in landfills. An integrated methodology is used to predict the performance of an industrial landfill for disposal of wastes containing NORM/TENORM, and to define acceptable amounts that can be disposed at the landfill using long-term environmental assessment. The governing equations for radionuclide transport are solved analytically using the generalized integral transform technique. Results obtained for each compartment of the biogeosphere are validated with experimental results or compared to other classes of solutions. An impact analysis is performed in order to define the potential consequences of a landfill to the environment, considering not only the engineering characteristics of the waste deposit but also the exposure pathways and plausible scenarios in which the contaminants could migrate and reach the environment and the human population. The present work permits the development of a safety approach that can be used to derive quantitative waste acceptance criteria for the disposal of NORM/TENORM waste in landfills. (author)

  9. China's "energy revolution": measuring the status quo, modelling regional dynamics and assessing global impacts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mischke, Peggy

    As the world's largest economy in transition, China plays a growing role in global energy markets, clean technology deployment and climate change negotiations. The Chinese president Xi Jinping called in June 2014 for an “energy revolution” of the country’s “energy production and consumption habits......, expanded and applied in this regard. The theories underlying this research are stemming from various scientific disciplines, such as energy and power engineering, macro- and energy-economics, and power project finance. Cross-cutting aspects are the harmonization of Chinese and international energy...... top-down and bottom-up global energy planning tools to model future regional dynamics of China's energy sector; and (v) an assessment of electricity generation costs of the first operational concentrated solar power technologies in China. The results of this thesis are relevant for a broad scientific...

  10. Limitations to the Use of Species-Distribution Models for Environmental-Impact Assessments in the Amazon.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lorena Ribeiro de A Carneiro

    Full Text Available Species-distribution models (SDM are tools with potential to inform environmental-impact studies (EIA. However, they are not always appropriate and may result in improper and expensive mitigation and compensation if their limitations are not understood by decision makers. Here, we examine the use of SDM for frogs that were used in impact assessment using data obtained from the EIA of a hydroelectric project located in the Amazon Basin in Brazil. The results show that lack of knowledge of species distributions limits the appropriate use of SDM in the Amazon region for most target species. Because most of these targets are newly described and their distributions poorly known, data about their distributions are insufficient to be effectively used in SDM. Surveys that are mandatory for the EIA are often conducted only near the area under assessment, and so models must extrapolate well beyond the sampled area to inform decisions made at much larger spatial scales, such as defining areas to be used to offset the negative effects of the projects. Using distributions of better-known species in simulations, we show that geographical-extrapolations based on limited information of species ranges often lead to spurious results. We conclude that the use of SDM as evidence to support project-licensing decisions in the Amazon requires much greater area sampling for impact studies, or, alternatively, integrated and comparative survey strategies, to improve biodiversity sampling. When more detailed distribution information is unavailable, SDM will produce results that generate uncertain and untestable decisions regarding impact assessment. In many cases, SDM is unlikely to be better than the use of expert opinion.

  11. Stimulating fuelwood consumption through public policies: An assessment of economic and resource impacts based on the French Forest Sector Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caurla, Sylvain; Delacote, Philippe; Lecocq, Franck; Barkaoui, Ahmed

    2013-01-01

    Stimulating renewable energy is a crucial objective in view of tackling climate change and coping with future fossil fuel scarcity. In France, fuelwood appears to be an important source for the renewable energy mix. Using the French Forest Sector Model, our paper aims to assess the impacts of three policy options to stimulate fuelwood consumption: a consumer subsidy, a producer subsidy and a fixed-demand contract policy. We explored their impacts in terms of five groups of criteria: (1) forest resource dynamics; (2) variations in wood products prices and quantities consumed and produced; (3) trade balance; (4) budgetary costs; and (5) variations in agent surpluses. We show that no policy option is more desirable than another on the basis of all of these criteria and that trade-offs will determine which is the best policy option to be implemented. - Highlights: • We compare the bio-economic impacts of policies to boost fuelwood consumption in France. • We simulate a producer subsidy, a consumer subsidy and fixed public demand contracts. • We explore their impacts until 2020 with a dynamic model of the forest sector. • Producer subsidy reduces the trade balance deficit and decreases forest stock. • Consumer subsidy increases consumer welfare and public contracts reduce budgetary costs

  12. Animal welfare impact assessments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sandøe, Peter; Gamborg, Christian

    2017-01-01

    aimed at dealing with wild animals. McCulloch and Reiss argue that this could be remedied by means of a “mandatory application of formal and systematic Animal Welfare Impact Assessment (AWIA)”. Optimistically, they consider that an AWIA could help to resolve controversies involving wild animals. The aim...... is a welfare issue. Furthermore, we argue that AWIA is unlikely to prevent serious moral disagreements over how to weigh concerns about wild animals against priorities in human health, the health of domestic and farm animals, and biodiversity, but that it may nonetheless serve to limit harms imposed......Control of wild animals may give rise to controversy, as is seen in the case of badger control to manage TB in cattle in the UK. However, it is striking that concerns about the potential suffering of the affected animals themselves are often given little attention or completely ignored in policies...

  13. Inspection of the Math Model Tools for On-Orbit Assessment of Impact Damage Report. Version 1.0

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Charles E.; Raju, Ivatury S.; Piascik, Robert S.; Kramer White, Julie; Labbe, Steve G.; Rotter, Hank A.

    2005-01-01

    In Spring of 2005, the NASA Engineering Safety Center (NESC) was engaged by the Space Shuttle Program (SSP) to peer review the suite of analytical tools being developed to support the determination of impact and damage tolerance of the Orbiter Thermal Protection Systems (TPS). The NESC formed an independent review team with the core disciplines of materials, flight sciences, structures, mechanical analysis and thermal analysis. The Math Model Tools reviewed included damage prediction and stress analysis, aeroheating analysis, and thermal analysis tools. Some tools are physics-based and other tools are empirically-derived. Each tool was created for a specific use and timeframe, including certification, real-time pre-launch assessments, and real-time on-orbit assessments. The tools are used together in an integrated strategy for assessing the ramifications of impact damage to tile and RCC. The NESC teams conducted a peer review of the engineering data package for each Math Model Tool. This report contains the summary of the team observations and recommendations from these reviews.

  14. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein, E-mail: mahmoudi@uni-hohenheim.de [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, G.C. (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Renn, Ortwin [Department of Technology and Environmental Sociology (and DIALOGIK), University of Stuttgart (Germany); Vanclay, Frank [Department of Cultural Geography, Faculty of Spatial Sciences, University of Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Hoffmann, Volker [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Karami, Ezatollah [College of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2013-11-15

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary.

  15. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-01-01

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary

  16. A dynamic simulation model for assessing the overall impact of incentive policies on power system reliability, costs and environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ibanez-Lopez, A.S.; Martinez-Val, J.M.; Moratilla-Soria, B.Y.

    2017-01-01

    The liberalization of power markets has entailed dramatic changes in power system planning worldwide. The inception of new alternative technologies, smart grids and distributed generation and storage is expected to make system planning even more challenging. Government policies still play a major role in the evolution of a country's power generation mix, even in those countries with liberalized markets. This paper presents a System Dynamics model aimed at assessing the overall technical, economic and environmental impact of renewable energy incentives and capacity payment policies. The model has been used to simulate Spain's power industry in order to assess the impact of electric power policies with the goal of getting insights regarding how to achieve an optimum power generation mix. The main conclusions of the present paper are (i) the necessity of specific regulatory actions in Spain in order to keep adequate reliability levels, avoid price spikes and boom and bust investment cycles as well as to deploy specific technologies, (ii) the fact that capacity payments are a better instrument for keeping adequate reserve margins and avoiding power price spikes than renewable energy incentives and (iii) the evidence that both instruments entail additional system costs over the base case scenario. - Highlights: • A System Dynamics model of Spain's power generation mix is proposed. • The overall policy impact on system costs, environment and reliability is assessed. • Current policies are not enough to keep adequate reliability levels. • Capacity payments are an adequate instrument for guaranteeing system reliability. • RES incentives do not solve reliability issues and entail greater system costs.

  17. Assessment of nuclear power scenarios allowing for matrix behavior in radiological impact modeling of disposal scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tronche, E.; Boussier, H.

    2000-01-01

    Under the provisions of the 1991 French radioactive waste management law, various fuel cycle scenarios will be assessed and compared in terms of feasibility, flexibility, cost, and ultimate waste radio-toxic inventory. The latter criterion may be further broken down into 'potential radio-toxic inventory' (the radio-toxic inventory of all the radionuclides produced) and 'residual radio-toxic inventory' (the radionuclide fraction reaching the biosphere after migration from the repository). The innovative scientific contribution of this study is to consider a third type of radio-toxic inventory: the potential radio-toxic inventory after conditioning, i.e. taking into account the containment capacity of the radionuclide conditioning matrices. The matrix fraction subjected to alteration over time determines the potential for radionuclide release, hence the notion of the potential radio-toxic inventory after conditioning. An initial comparison of possible scenarios is proposed by considering orders of magnitude for the radionuclide containment capacity of the disposal matrices and for their mobilization potential. All the scenarios investigated are normalized to the same annual electric power production so that a legitimate comparison can be established for the ultimate wasteform produced per year of operation. This approach reveals significant differences among the scenarios considered that do not appear when only the raw potential radio-toxic inventory is taken into account. The matrix containment performance has a decisive effect on the final impact of a given scenario or type of scenario. Pu recycling scenarios thus reduce the potential radio-toxicity by roughly a factor of 50 compared with an open cycle; the gain rises to a factor of about 300 for scenarios in which Pu and the minor actinides are recycled. Interestingly, the results obtained by the use of a dedicated containment matrix for the minor actinides in a scenario limited to Pu recycling were comparable to

  18. An ensemble approach to assess hydrological models' contribution to uncertainties in the analysis of climate change impact on water resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velázquez, J. A.; Schmid, J.; Ricard, S.; Muerth, M. J.; Gauvin St-Denis, B.; Minville, M.; Chaumont, D.; Caya, D.; Ludwig, R.; Turcotte, R.

    2012-06-01

    Over the recent years, several research efforts investigated the impact of climate change on water resources for different regions of the world. The projection of future river flows is affected by different sources of uncertainty in the hydro-climatic modelling chain. One of the aims of the QBic3 project (Québec-Bavarian International Collaboration on Climate Change) is to assess the contribution to uncertainty of hydrological models by using an ensemble of hydrological models presenting a diversity of structural complexity (i.e. lumped, semi distributed and distributed models). The study investigates two humid, mid-latitude catchments with natural flow conditions; one located in Southern Québec (Canada) and one in Southern Bavaria (Germany). Daily flow is simulated with four different hydrological models, forced by outputs from regional climate models driven by a given number of GCMs' members over a reference (1971-2000) and a future (2041-2070) periods. The results show that the choice of the hydrological model does strongly affect the climate change response of selected hydrological indicators, especially those related to low flows. Indicators related to high flows seem less sensitive on the choice of the hydrological model. Therefore, the computationally less demanding models (usually simple, lumped and conceptual) give a significant level of trust for high and overall mean flows.

  19. Workshop: Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis: Modeling Climate Change Impacts and Associated Economic Damages (2011 - part 2)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The purpose of this workshop Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis. focused on conceptual and methodological issues - estimating impacts and valuing damages on a sectoral basis.

  20. An Update of the Analytical Groundwater Modeling to Assess Water Resource Impacts at the Afton Solar Energy Zone

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Quinn, John J. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Greer, Christopher B. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Carr, Adrianne E. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

    2014-10-01

    The purpose of this study is to update a one-dimensional analytical groundwater flow model to examine the influence of potential groundwater withdrawal in support of utility-scale solar energy development at the Afton Solar Energy Zone (SEZ) as a part of the Bureau of Land Management’s (BLM’s) Solar Energy Program. This report describes the modeling for assessing the drawdown associated with SEZ groundwater pumping rates for a 20-year duration considering three categories of water demand (high, medium, and low) based on technology-specific considerations. The 2012 modeling effort published in the Final Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement for Solar Energy Development in Six Southwestern States (Solar PEIS; BLM and DOE 2012) has been refined based on additional information described below in an expanded hydrogeologic discussion.

  1. New statistical methodology, mathematical models, and data bases relevant to the assessment of health impacts of energy technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ginevan, M.E.; Collins, J.J.; Brown, C.D.; Carnes, B.A.; Curtiss, J.B.; Devine, N.

    1981-01-01

    The present research develops new statistical methodology, mathematical models, and data bases of relevance to the assessment of health impacts of energy technologies, and uses these to identify, quantify, and pedict adverse health effects of energy related pollutants. Efforts are in five related areas including: (1) evaluation and development of statistical procedures for the analysis of death rate data, disease incidence data, and large scale data sets; (2) development of dose response and demographic models useful in the prediction of the health effects of energy technologies; (3) application of our method and models to analyses of the health risks of energy production; (4) a reanalysis of the Tri-State leukemia survey data, focusing on the relationship between myelogenous leukemia risk and diagnostic x-ray exposure; and (5) investigation of human birth weights as a possible early warning system for the effects of environmental pollution

  2. A simplified model for assessing the impact to groundwater of swine farms at regional level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massabo, Marco; Viterbo, Angelo

    2013-04-01

    Swine manure can be an excellent source of nutrients for crop production. Several swine farms are present in the territory of Regione Umbria and more than 200.000 of swine heads are present yearly in the whole territory while some municipalities host more than 30.000 heads over a relatively limited land. Municipality with elevated number of swine heads has registered particularly higher Nitrate concentration in groundwater that requires a management plan and intervention in order to determine the maximum allowed N loads in the specific region. Use of manure and fertilizers in agricultural field produce diffuse nitrogen (N) losses that are a major cause of excessive nitrate concentrations in ground and surface waters and have been of concern since decades. Excessive nitrate concentrations in groundwater can have toxic effects when used as drinking water and cause eutrophication in surface waters. For management and environmental planning purposes, it is necessary to assess the magnitude of diffuse N losses from agricultural fields and how they are influenced by factors such as management practices, type of fertilizers -organic or inorganic - climate and soil etc. There are several methods for assessing N leaching, they span from methods based on field test to complex models that require many input data. We use a simple index method that accounts for the type of fertilizer used - inorganic, swine or cattle manure- and hydrological and hydrogeological conditions. Hydrological conditions such as infiltration rates are estimated by a fully distributed hydrological model. Data on inorganic and organic fertilization are estimated at municipal level by using the nutrient crops needs and the statistics of swine and cattle heads within the municipality. The index method has been calibrated by using groundwater concentration as a proxy of N losses from agriculture. A time series of three years of data has been analyzed. The application of the simple index method allowed to

  3. EURASIAN MINERAL WATER: MATHEMATICAL MODELING, CLASSIFICATION AND ASSESSMENT OF THEIR IMPACT ON THE BIOCHEMICAL COMPOSITION OF HUMAN BLOOD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nikolay Kornilov

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available In the article the results of comparative analysis of the composition of the Eurasian hydromineral resources and the assessment of their impact on the physiological condition of a human organism according to biochemical studies of venous blood are presented. Processing of initial data on the composition and properties of mineral waters chloride-hydrocarbonate, sulphate- hydrocarbonate and chloride-sulphate types and venous blood are made using the method of mathematical modeling, developed by the authors of this article. It is shown that in the balneological impact of hydromineral resources on the body in the blood increases the hemoglobin and oxygen, decreases glucose, and acid-base pH shifted to high alkalinity.

  4. Using Lagrangian Chemical Transport Modeling to Assess the Impact of Biomass Burning on Ozone and PM2.5

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alvarado, M. J.; Lonsdale, C. R.; Brodowski, C. M.

    2017-12-01

    One of the challenges of using in situ measurements to study the air quality and climate impacts of biomass burning is correctly determining the contribution of biomass burning sources to the measured ambient concentrations. This is especially important for policy purposes, as the ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) from natural wildfires should not be confused with that from controllable anthropogenic sources. We have developed a Lagrangian chemical transport model called STILT-ASP that is able to quantify the impact of wildfire events on O3 and PM2.5 measurements made at surface monitoring sites, by mobile laboratories, or by aircraft. STILT-ASP is built by coupling the Stochastic Time Inverted Lagrangian Transport (STILT) model with AER's Aerosol Simulation Program (ASP), which has been used in many studies of the gas and aerosol chemistry of biomass burning smoke. Here we present recent revisions made in STILT-ASP v2.0, including the use of more detailed chemical speciation of fire emissions and biogenic emissions calculated using the MEGAN model with meteorological inputs consistent with those used to drive STILT. We will present the results of an evaluation of the performance of STILT-ASP v2.0 using surface, mobile lab, and aircraft data from the 2013 Houston DISCOVER-AQ campaign. STILT-ASP v2.0 showed good average performance for O3 during the peak of the high O3 episodes on Sept. 25-26, 2013, with a mean bias of -4 ppbv. We will also demonstrate the use of STILT-ASP to evaluate the impact of biomass burning on O3 and PM2.5 in urban areas and to assess the impact of remote fires on the boundary conditions used in Eulerian chemical transport models like CAMx.

  5. Assessing the Impacts of Flooding Caused by Extreme Rainfall Events Through a Combined Geospatial and Numerical Modeling Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santillan, J. R.; Amora, A. M.; Makinano-Santillan, M.; Marqueso, J. T.; Cutamora, L. C.; Serviano, J. L.; Makinano, R. M.

    2016-06-01

    In this paper, we present a combined geospatial and two dimensional (2D) flood modeling approach to assess the impacts of flooding due to extreme rainfall events. We developed and implemented this approach to the Tago River Basin in the province of Surigao del Sur in Mindanao, Philippines, an area which suffered great damage due to flooding caused by Tropical Storms Lingling and Jangmi in the year 2014. The geospatial component of the approach involves extraction of several layers of information such as detailed topography/terrain, man-made features (buildings, roads, bridges) from 1-m spatial resolution LiDAR Digital Surface and Terrain Models (DTM/DSMs), and recent land-cover from Landsat 7 ETM+ and Landsat 8 OLI images. We then used these layers as inputs in developing a Hydrologic Engineering Center Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC HMS)-based hydrologic model, and a hydraulic model based on the 2D module of the latest version of HEC River Analysis System (RAS) to dynamically simulate and map the depth and extent of flooding due to extreme rainfall events. The extreme rainfall events used in the simulation represent 6 hypothetical rainfall events with return periods of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years. For each event, maximum flood depth maps were generated from the simulations, and these maps were further transformed into hazard maps by categorizing the flood depth into low, medium and high hazard levels. Using both the flood hazard maps and the layers of information extracted from remotely-sensed datasets in spatial overlay analysis, we were then able to estimate and assess the impacts of these flooding events to buildings, roads, bridges and landcover. Results of the assessments revealed increase in number of buildings, roads and bridges; and increase in areas of land-cover exposed to various flood hazards as rainfall events become more extreme. The wealth of information generated from the flood impact assessment using the approach can be very useful to the

  6. Assessing the impact of the Lebanese National Polio Immunization Campaign using a population-based computational model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alawieh, Ali; Sabra, Zahraa; Langley, E Farris; Bizri, Abdul Rahman; Hamadeh, Randa; Zaraket, Fadi A

    2017-11-25

    After the re-introduction of poliovirus to Syria in 2013, Lebanon was considered at high transmission risk due to its proximity to Syria and the high number of Syrian refugees. However, after a large-scale national immunization initiative, Lebanon was able to prevent a potential outbreak of polio among nationals and refugees. In this work, we used a computational individual-simulation model to assess the risk of poliovirus threat to Lebanon prior and after the immunization campaign and to quantitatively assess the healthcare impact of the campaign and the required standards that need to be maintained nationally to prevent a future outbreak. Acute poliomyelitis surveillance in Lebanon was along with the design and coverage rate of the recent national polio immunization campaign were reviewed from the records of the Lebanese Ministry of Public Health. Lebanese population demographics including Syrian and Palestinian refugees were reviewed to design individual-based models that predicts the consequences of polio spread to Lebanon and evaluate the outcome of immunization campaigns. The model takes into account geographic, demographic and health-related features. Our simulations confirmed the high risk of polio outbreaks in Lebanon within 10 days of case introduction prior to the immunization campaign, and showed that the current immunization campaign significantly reduced the speed of the infection in the event poliomyelitis cases enter the country. A minimum of 90% national immunization coverage was found to be required to prevent exponential propagation of potential transmission. Both surveillance and immunization efforts should be maintained at high standards in Lebanon and other countries in the area to detect and limit any potential outbreak. The use of computational population simulation models can provide a quantitative approach to assess the impact of immunization campaigns and the burden of infectious diseases even in the context of population migration.

  7. Assessing the impact of the Lebanese National Polio Immunization Campaign using a population-based computational model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Alawieh

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background After the re-introduction of poliovirus to Syria in 2013, Lebanon was considered at high transmission risk due to its proximity to Syria and the high number of Syrian refugees. However, after a large-scale national immunization initiative, Lebanon was able to prevent a potential outbreak of polio among nationals and refugees. In this work, we used a computational individual-simulation model to assess the risk of poliovirus threat to Lebanon prior and after the immunization campaign and to quantitatively assess the healthcare impact of the campaign and the required standards that need to be maintained nationally to prevent a future outbreak. Methods Acute poliomyelitis surveillance in Lebanon was along with the design and coverage rate of the recent national polio immunization campaign were reviewed from the records of the Lebanese Ministry of Public Health. Lebanese population demographics including Syrian and Palestinian refugees were reviewed to design individual-based models that predicts the consequences of polio spread to Lebanon and evaluate the outcome of immunization campaigns. The model takes into account geographic, demographic and health-related features. Results Our simulations confirmed the high risk of polio outbreaks in Lebanon within 10 days of case introduction prior to the immunization campaign, and showed that the current immunization campaign significantly reduced the speed of the infection in the event poliomyelitis cases enter the country. A minimum of 90% national immunization coverage was found to be required to prevent exponential propagation of potential transmission. Conclusions Both surveillance and immunization efforts should be maintained at high standards in Lebanon and other countries in the area to detect and limit any potential outbreak. The use of computational population simulation models can provide a quantitative approach to assess the impact of immunization campaigns and the burden of

  8. Social Impact Assessment in Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Sanne Vammen; Hansen, Anne Merrild; Lyhne, Ivar

    2015-01-01

    Social impact assessment (SIA) is applied worldwide to assess social impacts of plans and projects. In Europe, directives on environmental assessment (EA) require attention to social impacts, however, there is a need to investigate the implementation in practise. To this end, we study three Danish...... are not suggested or are postponed and the geographical distribution of impacts assessed is biased towards including negative local impacts. We discuss the scope and handling of social impacts, and possible implications. Based on this, we conclude with the view that EA might do the job of handling social impacts...... cases, which are characterised by debates and conflicts on social issues. Analysis of the EA statements shows inclusion of a broad range of social impacts. However, the EAs do not fully match the concerns of the public, and social impacts are not always analysed in depth, mitigation measures...

  9. A system dynamics modelling approach to assess the impact of launching a new nicotine product on population health outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Andrew; Camacho, Oscar M

    2017-06-01

    In 2012 the US FDA suggested the use of mathematical models to assess the impact of releasing new nicotine or tobacco products on population health outcomes. A model based on system dynamics methodology was developed to project the potential effects of a new nicotine product at a population level. A model representing traditional smoking populations (never, current and former smokers) and calibrated using historical data was extended to a two-product model by including electronic cigarettes use statuses. Smoking mechanisms, such as product initiation, switching, transition to dual use, and cessation, were represented as flows between smoking statuses (stocks) and the potential effect of smoking renormalisation through a feedback system. Mortality over a 50-year period (2000-2050) was the health outcome of interest, and was compared between two scenarios, with and without e-cigarettes being introduced. The results suggest that by 2050, smoking prevalence in adults was 12.4% in the core model and 9.7% (including dual users) in the counterfactual. Smoking-related mortality was 8.4% and 8.1%, respectively. The results suggested an overall beneficial effect from launching e-cigarettes and that system dynamics could be a useful approach to assess the potential population health effects of nicotine products when epidemiological data are not available. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. River modeling and multi-level fish health assessment to evaluate impacts from oil sands water releases (Part 2)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shaw, R.; Swanson, S.M.; Lagimodiere, M.; Gulley, J.

    1995-01-01

    A multi-level, multi-scale approach was used to assess potential impacts to fish health from oil sands water releases. The method used to arrive at predicted impacts involved assembling experimental data on the effects of chronic exposure to oil sands wastewaters on biochemical, physiological and whole-organism endpoint. This information was used to determine no effect levels (NOELs) and lowest effect levels (LOELs) for the suite of fish health parameters used in laboratory experiments (primarily biochemical and physiological measurement endpoints). LOELs and NOELs were compared to modeled concentrations of wastewater in the Athabasca River for five time snapshots. For each time period, concentrations were predicted based on mean annual flows and 7Q10 flows (low flows). This comparison was used to predict impacts on biochemical/physiological endpoints. Impacts on at the whole-organism and population-level were determined by comparing what the laboratory data would predict with what was observed in the field. This process was used to draw a conclusion regarding the health and sustainability of fish populations

  11. Modelling methodology for assessing the impact of new technology on complex sociotechnical systems

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Oosthuizen, R

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Developing complex sociotechnical systems often involves integrating new technology into existing systems by applying systems engineering processes. This requires an understanding of the problem space and the possible impact of the new technology...

  12. Industry-Cost-Curve Approach for Modeling the Environmental Impact of Introducing New Technologies in Life Cycle Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kätelhön, Arne; von der Assen, Niklas; Suh, Sangwon; Jung, Johannes; Bardow, André

    2015-07-07

    The environmental costs and benefits of introducing a new technology depend not only on the technology itself, but also on the responses of the market where substitution or displacement of competing technologies may occur. An internationally accepted method taking both technological and market-mediated effects into account, however, is still lacking in life cycle assessment (LCA). For the introduction of a new technology, we here present a new approach for modeling the environmental impacts within the framework of LCA. Our approach is motivated by consequential life cycle assessment (CLCA) and aims to contribute to the discussion on how to operationalize consequential thinking in LCA practice. In our approach, we focus on new technologies producing homogeneous products such as chemicals or raw materials. We employ the industry cost-curve (ICC) for modeling market-mediated effects. Thereby, we can determine substitution effects at a level of granularity sufficient to distinguish between competing technologies. In our approach, a new technology alters the ICC potentially replacing the highest-cost producer(s). The technologies that remain competitive after the new technology's introduction determine the new environmental impact profile of the product. We apply our approach in a case study on a new technology for chlor-alkali electrolysis to be introduced in Germany.

  13. Bio-economic modelling to assess the impact of water pricing policies at the farm level in the Oum Zessar watershed, southern Tunisia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jeder, H.; Sghaier, M.; Louhchi, P.; Reidsma, P.

    2014-01-01

    For integrated assessment at farm level, the Farm System SIMulator model (FSSIM) was used. FSSIM is a bio-economic model developed for the European context, and was adapted and tested for Tunisian conditions to assess, ex-ante, impacts of water pricing policies at the farm level to the year 2015.

  14. Characterization of waterborne nitrogen emissions for marine eutrophication modelling in life cycle impact assessment at the damage level and global scale

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cosme, Nuno Miguel Dias; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky

    2017-01-01

    Current life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) methods lack a consistent and globally applicable characterization model relating nitrogen (N, as dissolved inorganic nitrogen, DIN) enrichment of coastal waters to the marine eutrophication impacts at the endpoint level. This paper introduces a method...... to calculate spatially explicit characterization factors (CFs) at endpoint and damage to ecosystems levels, for waterborne nitrogen emissions, reflecting their hypoxia-related marine eutrophication impacts, modelled for 5772 river basins of the world....

  15. Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on the Water Balances and Flooding Conditions of Peninsular Malaysia watersheds by a Coupled Numerical Climate Model - Watershed Hydrology Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ercan, A.; Kavvas, M. L.; Ishida, K.; Chen, Z. Q.; Amin, M. Z. M.; Shaaban, A. J.

    2017-12-01

    Impacts of climate change on the hydrologic processes under future climate change conditions were assessed over various watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia by means of a coupled regional climate and physically-based hydrology model that utilized an ensemble of future climate change projections. An ensemble of 15 different future climate realizations from coarse resolution global climate models' (GCMs) projections for the 21st century were dynamically downscaled to 6 km resolution over Peninsular Malaysia by a regional numerical climate model, which was then coupled with the watershed hydrology model WEHY through the atmospheric boundary layer over the selected watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia. Hydrologic simulations were carried out at hourly increments and at hillslope-scale in order to assess the impacts of climate change on the water balances and flooding conditions at the selected watersheds during the 21st century. The coupled regional climate and hydrology model was simulated for a duration of 90 years for each of the 15 realizations. It is demonstrated that the increase in mean monthly flows due to the impact of expected climate change during 2040-2100 is statistically significant at the selected watersheds. Furthermore, the flood frequency analyses for the selected watersheds indicate an overall increasing trend in the second half of the 21st century.

  16. Climate change impact assessment on Veneto and Friuli plain groundwater. Part I: An integrated modeling approach for hazard scenario construction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baruffi, F.; Cisotto, A.; Cimolino, A.; Ferri, M.; Monego, M.; Norbiato, D.; Cappelletto, M.; Bisaglia, M.; Pretner, A.; Galli, A.; Scarinci, A.; Marsala, V.; Panelli, C.; Gualdi, S.; Bucchignani, E.; Torresan, S.; Pasini, S.; Critto, A.

    2012-01-01

    Climate change impacts on water resources, particularly groundwater, is a highly debated topic worldwide, triggering international attention and interest from both researchers and policy makers due to its relevant link with European water policy directives (e.g. 2000/60/EC and 2007/118/EC) and related environmental objectives. The understanding of long-term impacts of climate variability and change is therefore a key challenge in order to address effective protection measures and to implement sustainable management of water resources. This paper presents the modeling approach adopted within the Life + project TRUST (Tool for Regional-scale assessment of groUndwater Storage improvement in adaptation to climaTe change) in order to provide climate change hazard scenarios for the shallow groundwater of high Veneto and Friuli Plain, Northern Italy. Given the aim to evaluate potential impacts on water quantity and quality (e.g. groundwater level variation, decrease of water availability for irrigation, variations of nitrate infiltration processes), the modeling approach integrated an ensemble of climate, hydrologic and hydrogeologic models running from the global to the regional scale. Global and regional climate models and downscaling techniques were used to make climate simulations for the reference period 1961–1990 and the projection period 2010–2100. The simulation of the recent climate was performed using observed radiative forcings, whereas the projections have been done prescribing the radiative forcings according to the IPCC A1B emission scenario. The climate simulations and the downscaling, then, provided the precipitation, temperatures and evapo-transpiration fields used for the impact analysis. Based on downscaled climate projections, 3 reference scenarios for the period 2071–2100 (i.e. the driest, the wettest and the mild year) were selected and used to run a regional geomorphoclimatic and hydrogeological model. The final output of the model ensemble

  17. Climate change impact assessment on Veneto and Friuli plain groundwater. Part I: An integrated modeling approach for hazard scenario construction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baruffi, F. [Autorita di Bacino dei Fiumi dell' Alto Adriatico, Cannaregio 4314, 30121 Venice (Italy); Cisotto, A., E-mail: segreteria@adbve.it [Autorita di Bacino dei Fiumi dell' Alto Adriatico, Cannaregio 4314, 30121 Venice (Italy); Cimolino, A.; Ferri, M.; Monego, M.; Norbiato, D.; Cappelletto, M.; Bisaglia, M. [Autorita di Bacino dei Fiumi dell' Alto Adriatico, Cannaregio 4314, 30121 Venice (Italy); Pretner, A.; Galli, A. [SGI Studio Galli Ingegneria, via della Provvidenza 13, 35030 Sarmeola di Rubano (PD) (Italy); Scarinci, A., E-mail: andrea.scarinci@sgi-spa.it [SGI Studio Galli Ingegneria, via della Provvidenza 13, 35030 Sarmeola di Rubano (PD) (Italy); Marsala, V.; Panelli, C. [SGI Studio Galli Ingegneria, via della Provvidenza 13, 35030 Sarmeola di Rubano (PD) (Italy); Gualdi, S., E-mail: silvio.gualdi@bo.ingv.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Bucchignani, E., E-mail: e.bucchignani@cira.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Torresan, S., E-mail: torresan@cmcc.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Pasini, S., E-mail: sara.pasini@stud.unive.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca' Foscari Venice, Calle Larga S. Marta 2137, 30123 Venice (Italy); Critto, A., E-mail: critto@unive.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca' Foscari Venice, Calle Larga S. Marta 2137, 30123 Venice (Italy); and others

    2012-12-01

    Climate change impacts on water resources, particularly groundwater, is a highly debated topic worldwide, triggering international attention and interest from both researchers and policy makers due to its relevant link with European water policy directives (e.g. 2000/60/EC and 2007/118/EC) and related environmental objectives. The understanding of long-term impacts of climate variability and change is therefore a key challenge in order to address effective protection measures and to implement sustainable management of water resources. This paper presents the modeling approach adopted within the Life + project TRUST (Tool for Regional-scale assessment of groUndwater Storage improvement in adaptation to climaTe change) in order to provide climate change hazard scenarios for the shallow groundwater of high Veneto and Friuli Plain, Northern Italy. Given the aim to evaluate potential impacts on water quantity and quality (e.g. groundwater level variation, decrease of water availability for irrigation, variations of nitrate infiltration processes), the modeling approach integrated an ensemble of climate, hydrologic and hydrogeologic models running from the global to the regional scale. Global and regional climate models and downscaling techniques were used to make climate simulations for the reference period 1961-1990 and the projection period 2010-2100. The simulation of the recent climate was performed using observed radiative forcings, whereas the projections have been done prescribing the radiative forcings according to the IPCC A1B emission scenario. The climate simulations and the downscaling, then, provided the precipitation, temperatures and evapo-transpiration fields used for the impact analysis. Based on downscaled climate projections, 3 reference scenarios for the period 2071-2100 (i.e. the driest, the wettest and the mild year) were selected and used to run a regional geomorphoclimatic and hydrogeological model. The final output of the model ensemble produced

  18. Multi-model assessment of the impact of soil moisture initialization on mid-latitude summer predictability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ardilouze, Constantin; Batté, L.; Bunzel, F.; Decremer, D.; Déqué, M.; Doblas-Reyes, F. J.; Douville, H.; Fereday, D.; Guemas, V.; MacLachlan, C.; Müller, W.; Prodhomme, C.

    2017-12-01

    Land surface initial conditions have been recognized as a potential source of predictability in sub-seasonal to seasonal forecast systems, at least for near-surface air temperature prediction over the mid-latitude continents. Yet, few studies have systematically explored such an influence over a sufficient hindcast period and in a multi-model framework to produce a robust quantitative assessment. Here, a dedicated set of twin experiments has been carried out with boreal summer retrospective forecasts over the 1992-2010 period performed by five different global coupled ocean-atmosphere models. The impact of a realistic versus climatological soil moisture initialization is assessed in two regions with high potential previously identified as hotspots of land-atmosphere coupling, namely the North American Great Plains and South-Eastern Europe. Over the latter region, temperature predictions show a significant improvement, especially over the Balkans. Forecast systems better simulate the warmest summers if they follow pronounced dry initial anomalies. It is hypothesized that models manage to capture a positive feedback between high temperature and low soil moisture content prone to dominate over other processes during the warmest summers in this region. Over the Great Plains, however, improving the soil moisture initialization does not lead to any robust gain of forecast quality for near-surface temperature. It is suggested that models biases prevent the forecast systems from making the most of the improved initial conditions.

  19. Modelling of the radiological impact of radioactive waste dumping in the Arctic Seas. Report of the Modelling and Assessment Working Group of the International Arctic Seas Assessment Project (IASAP)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    The work is summarized carried out by the Modelling and Assessment Working Group in 1994-1996. The Modelling and Assessment Working Group was established within the framework of the International Arctic Seas Assessment Project (IASAP) launched by the IAEA in 1993 with the objectives of modelling the environmental dispersal and transport of nuclides to be potentially released from the dumped objects and of assessing the associated radiological impact on man and biota. Models were developed to model the dispersal of the pollutants and for the assessment of the radiological consequences of the releases from the dumped wastes in the Arctic. The results of the model intercomparison exercise were used as a basis on which to evaluate the estimate of concentration fields when detailed source term scenarios were used and also to assess the uncertainties in ensuing dose calculations. The descriptions and modelling work was divided into three main phases: description of the area, collection of relevant and necessary information; extension to and development of predictive models including an extensive model inter-comparison and finally prediction of radiological impact, used in the evaluation of the need and options for remediation

  20. Life cycle assessment based environmental impact estimation model for pre-stressed concrete beam bridge in the early design phase

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Kyong Ju; Yun, Won Gun; Cho, Namho; Ha, Jikwang

    2017-01-01

    The late rise in global concern for environmental issues such as global warming and air pollution is accentuating the need for environmental assessments in the construction industry. Promptly evaluating the environmental loads of the various design alternatives during the early stages of a construction project and adopting the most environmentally sustainable candidate is therefore of large importance. Yet, research on the early evaluation of a construction project's environmental load in order to aid the decision making process is hitherto lacking. In light of this dilemma, this study proposes a model for estimating the environmental load by employing only the most basic information accessible during the early design phases of a project for the pre-stressed concrete (PSC) beam bridge, the most common bridge structure. Firstly, a life cycle assessment (LCA) was conducted on the data from 99 bridges by integrating the bills of quantities (BOQ) with a life cycle inventory (LCI) database. The processed data was then utilized to construct a case based reasoning (CBR) model for estimating the environmental load. The accuracy of the estimation model was then validated using five test cases; the model's mean absolute error rates (MAER) for the total environmental load was calculated as 7.09%. Such test results were shown to be superior compared to those obtained from a multiple-regression based model and a slab area base-unit analysis model. Henceforth application of this model during the early stages of a project is expected to highly complement environmentally friendly designs and construction by facilitating the swift evaluation of the environmental load from multiple standpoints. - Highlights: • This study is to develop the model of assessing the environmental impacts on LCA. • Bills of quantity from completed designs of PSC Beam were linked with the LCI DB. • Previous cases were used to estimate the environmental load of new case by CBR model. • CBR

  1. Life cycle assessment based environmental impact estimation model for pre-stressed concrete beam bridge in the early design phase

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Kyong Ju, E-mail: kjkim@cau.ac.kr; Yun, Won Gun, E-mail: ogun78@naver.com; Cho, Namho, E-mail: nhc51@cau.ac.kr; Ha, Jikwang, E-mail: wlrhkd29@gmail.com

    2017-05-15

    The late rise in global concern for environmental issues such as global warming and air pollution is accentuating the need for environmental assessments in the construction industry. Promptly evaluating the environmental loads of the various design alternatives during the early stages of a construction project and adopting the most environmentally sustainable candidate is therefore of large importance. Yet, research on the early evaluation of a construction project's environmental load in order to aid the decision making process is hitherto lacking. In light of this dilemma, this study proposes a model for estimating the environmental load by employing only the most basic information accessible during the early design phases of a project for the pre-stressed concrete (PSC) beam bridge, the most common bridge structure. Firstly, a life cycle assessment (LCA) was conducted on the data from 99 bridges by integrating the bills of quantities (BOQ) with a life cycle inventory (LCI) database. The processed data was then utilized to construct a case based reasoning (CBR) model for estimating the environmental load. The accuracy of the estimation model was then validated using five test cases; the model's mean absolute error rates (MAER) for the total environmental load was calculated as 7.09%. Such test results were shown to be superior compared to those obtained from a multiple-regression based model and a slab area base-unit analysis model. Henceforth application of this model during the early stages of a project is expected to highly complement environmentally friendly designs and construction by facilitating the swift evaluation of the environmental load from multiple standpoints. - Highlights: • This study is to develop the model of assessing the environmental impacts on LCA. • Bills of quantity from completed designs of PSC Beam were linked with the LCI DB. • Previous cases were used to estimate the environmental load of new case by CBR model. • CBR

  2. Statistical Downscaling and Bias Correction of Climate Model Outputs for Climate Change Impact Assessment in the U.S. Northeast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed, Kazi Farzan; Wang, Guiling; Silander, John; Wilson, Adam M.; Allen, Jenica M.; Horton, Radley; Anyah, Richard

    2013-01-01

    Statistical downscaling can be used to efficiently downscale a large number of General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs to a fine temporal and spatial scale. To facilitate regional impact assessments, this study statistically downscales (to 1/8deg spatial resolution) and corrects the bias of daily maximum and minimum temperature and daily precipitation data from six GCMs and four Regional Climate Models (RCMs) for the northeast United States (US) using the Statistical Downscaling and Bias Correction (SDBC) approach. Based on these downscaled data from multiple models, five extreme indices were analyzed for the future climate to quantify future changes of climate extremes. For a subset of models and indices, results based on raw and bias corrected model outputs for the present-day climate were compared with observations, which demonstrated that bias correction is important not only for GCM outputs, but also for RCM outputs. For future climate, bias correction led to a higher level of agreements among the models in predicting the magnitude and capturing the spatial pattern of the extreme climate indices. We found that the incorporation of dynamical downscaling as an intermediate step does not lead to considerable differences in the results of statistical downscaling for the study domain.

  3. Deep Impact: How a Job-Embedded Formative Assessment Professional Development Model Affected Teacher Practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas A. Stewart

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available This study supports the work of Black and Wiliam (1998, who demonstrated that when teachers effectively utilize formative assessment strategies, student learning increases significantly. However, the researchers also found a “poverty of practice” among teachers, in that few fully understood how to implement classroom formative assessment. This qualitative case study examined a series of voluntary workshops offered at one middle school designed to address this poverty of practice. Data were gathered via semi-structured interviews. These research questions framed the study: (1 What role did a professional learning community structure play in shaping workshop participants’ perceived effectiveness of a voluntary formative assessment initiative? (2 How did this initiative affect workshop participants’ perceptions of their knowledge of formative assessment and differentiation strategies? (3 How did it affect workshop participants’ perceptions of their abilities to teach others about formative assessment and differentiated instruction? (4 How did it affect school-wide use of classroom-level strategies? Results indicated that teacher workshop participants experienced a growth in their capacity to use and teach others various formative assessment strategies, and even non-participating teachers reported greater use of formative assessment in their own instruction. Workshop participants and non-participating teachers perceived little growth in the area of differentiation of instruction, which contradicted some administrator perceptions.

  4. Dust impact on surface solar irradiance assessed with model simulations, satellite observations and ground-based measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kosmopoulos, Panagiotis G.; Kazadzis, Stelios; Taylor, Michael; Athanasopoulou, Eleni; Speyer, Orestis; Raptis, Panagiotis I.; Marinou, Eleni; Proestakis, Emmanouil; Solomos, Stavros; Gerasopoulos, Evangelos; Amiridis, Vassilis; Bais, Alkiviadis; Kontoes, Charalabos

    2017-07-01

    This study assesses the impact of dust on surface solar radiation focussing on an extreme dust event. For this purpose, we exploited the synergy of AERONET measurements and passive and active satellite remote sensing (MODIS and CALIPSO) observations, in conjunction with radiative transfer model (RTM) and chemical transport model (CTM) simulations and the 1-day forecasts from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS). The area of interest is the eastern Mediterranean where anomalously high aerosol loads were recorded between 30 January and 3 February 2015. The intensity of the event was extremely high, with aerosol optical depth (AOD) reaching 3.5, and optical/microphysical properties suggesting aged dust. RTM and CTM simulations were able to quantify the extent of dust impact on surface irradiances and reveal substantial reduction in solar energy exploitation capacity of PV and CSP installations under this high aerosol load. We found that such an extreme dust event can result in Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) attenuation by as much as 40-50 % and a much stronger Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI) decrease (80-90 %), while spectrally this attenuation is distributed to 37 % in the UV region, 33 % in the visible and around 30 % in the infrared. CAMS forecasts provided a reliable available energy assessment (accuracy within 10 % of that obtained from MODIS). Spatially, the dust plume resulted in a zonally averaged reduction of GHI and DNI of the order of 150 W m-2 in southern Greece, and a mean increase of 20 W m-2 in the northern Greece as a result of lower AOD values combined with local atmospheric processes. This analysis of a real-world scenario contributes to the understanding and quantification of the impact range of high aerosol loads on solar energy and the potential for forecasting power generation failures at sunshine-privileged locations where solar power plants exist, are under construction or are being planned.

  5. Scale issues in the assessment of ecological impacts using a GIS-based habitat model - A case study for the Stockholm region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gontier, Mikael

    2007-01-01

    Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) provide two interlinked platforms for the assessment of impacts on biodiversity caused by human developments. Although it might be too early to draw conclusions on the efficiency of SEA to assess such impacts, a number of persistent problems have been identified in the case of EIA. Some of these shortcomings concern the lack of proper prediction and impact quantification, and the inadequate/insufficient assessment of cumulative effects. A number of problems are related to the scale(s) at which the assessment is performed. SEA may provide a more adequate framework than EIA to discuss scale-related issues (i.e. cumulative impacts) but it also requires the use of adapted tools. This paper presents a case study where a GIS-based habitat model for the lesser spotted woodpecker is tested, validated and applied to a planning scenario in the Stockholm region in Sweden. The results show that the method adopted offers great prospects to contribute to a better assessment of biodiversity-related impacts. Even though some limitations remain in the form of data requirement and interpretation of the results, the model produced continuous, quantified predictions over the study area and provided a relevant basis for the assessment of cumulative effects. Furthermore, this paper discusses potential conflicts between different scales involved in the assessment - related to administrative boundaries, ecological processes, data availability, the method adopted to perform the assessment and temporal aspects

  6. Developing Conceptual Models for Assessing Climate Change Impacts to Contaminant Availability in Terrestrial Ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-03-01

    Greenberg 2005), effects of dredged material (PIANC 2006), and ecosystem restoration (Fischenich 2008) among others. The process of developing a conceptual...Impacts to Contaminant Availability in Terrestrial Ecosystems by Burton C. Suedel, Nathan R. Beane, Eric R. Britzke, Cheryl R. Montgomery, and...are generally project or problem specific. Building a CM includes determining the components of the ecosystem , identifying relationships linking these

  7. Current use of impact models for agri-environment schemes and potential for improvements of policy design and assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Primdahl, Jørgen; Vesterager, Jens Peter; Finn, John A; Vlahos, George; Kristensen, Lone; Vejre, Henrik

    2010-06-01

    Agri-Environment Schemes (AES) to maintain or promote environmentally-friendly farming practices were implemented on about 25% of all agricultural land in the EU by 2002. This article analyses and discusses the actual and potential use of impact models in supporting the design, implementation and evaluation of AES. Impact models identify and establish the causal relationships between policy objectives and policy outcomes. We review and discuss the role of impact models at different stages in the AES policy process, and present results from a survey of impact models underlying 60 agri-environmental schemes in seven EU member states. We distinguished among three categories of impact models (quantitative, qualitative or common sense), depending on the degree of evidence in the formal scheme description, additional documents, or key person interviews. The categories of impact models used mainly depended on whether scheme objectives were related to natural resources, biodiversity or landscape. A higher proportion of schemes dealing with natural resources (primarily water) were based on quantitative impact models, compared to those concerned with biodiversity or landscape. Schemes explicitly targeted either on particular parts of individual farms or specific areas tended to be based more on quantitative impact models compared to whole-farm schemes and broad, horizontal schemes. We conclude that increased and better use of impact models has significant potential to improve efficiency and effectiveness of AES. (c) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Application of mathematical models in assessing environmental impacts of nuclear facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dlouhy, Z.

    Mathematical models are divided into atmospheric models which monitoring the migration of radioactive substances in the atmosphere, hydrological models which monitoring the discharge of radioactive substances into the hydrosphere and their concentrations in sediments, water flora and fauna, and hydrogeological models which monitoring the migration of radioactive substances in ground water. The application is described of the hydrogeological model in the evaluation of the radiation burden in the environment of the Dobronin radioactive waste disposal site. This model contains the determination of the maximal amounts of disposed radioactive substances, maximal design-basis accident, the amounts of leached radioactive substances, the calculation of the time of migration of substances in the soil, the determination of the dispersion in the aquifer and the determination of the radiation burden of the population. (H.S.)

  9. AN ENVIRON-ECONOMICAL MATHEMATICAL MODELING OF WATER POLLUTION IMPACT ASSESSMENT IN REFERENCE TO INDIAN SCENARIO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hemant PATHAK

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the application of the mathematical modeling to such a specific area as environ-economical interaction in prospect of big countries like India. A model of mutual interaction of dirty drinking water resulting water borne diseases, badly affected economy is proposed. For the description of some of these models illustrates drinking water resources, incapable municipal water treatment consequently expansion of diseases, World Bank loan, affected biggest labour forces (mankind and ultimate results in the form of decrease in GDP. These mathematical models may be used in the solving of similar type problems exist in south and eastern Asian economies.

  10. Assessing climate change impacts on the Iberian power system using a coupled water-power model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cardenal, Silvio Javier Pereira; Madsen, Henrik; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    2014-01-01

    Climate change is expected to have a negative impact on the power system of the Iberian Peninsula; changes in river runoff are expected to reduce hydropower generation, while higher temperatures are expected to increase summer electricity demand, when water resources are already limited. However,...... to balance agricultural, power, and environmental objectives in the operation of Iberian reservoirs, though some impacts could be mitigated by better alignment between temporal patterns of irrigation and power demands....... patterns of electricity demand caused by temperature changes, and changes in irrigation water use caused by temperature and precipitation changes. A stochastic dynamic programming approach was used to develop operating rules for the integrated system given hydrological uncertainty. We found that changes...

  11. Characterization modelling of aquatic ecotoxicity from metal emission to be applied in Life Cycle Impact Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dong, Yan

    water, Al(III) and Cu(II) have the highest CF of all the investigated metals, while Cd has the highest CF in other water types. The emission weighted freshwater CF was recommended to be applied as site-generic CF in the LCA studies where emission location and water chemistry of the receiving freshwater......Following the Apeldoorn Declaration (Aboussouan et al. 2004) and Clearwater Consensus (Diamond et al. 2010), Gandhi et al. (2010) developed a new method to calculate metals Characterization Factor (CF) in freshwater and applied it on six metals, considering metals speciation and its impacts...... is either lacking (e.g. USEtox, IMPACT 2002+), or derived by applying freshwater ecotoxicity data and ignoring metal speciation (e.g. USES-LCA). Moreover, the connection between freshwater and seawater, the estuary, which may act as a metal filter, is missing in the framework. To solve the problems...

  12. Assessing and exploiting the profit function by modeling the net impact of targeted marketing

    OpenAIRE

    W. BUCKINX; D. VAN DEN POEL

    2005-01-01

    The success of a direct marketing campaign is driven by the ability of companies to estimate customers’ future contribution to their profitability. Especially when considering that in retailing companies are wasting resources when targeting customers who will make purchases even in case they would not receive a mailing. We present an advanced profit evaluation, which rates customers for the net impact of a campaign on their buying behavior. Moreover, in contrast to current practices and theor...

  13. Modeling the impact of climate change in Germany with biosphere models for long-term safety assessment of nuclear waste repositories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Staudt, C.; Semiochkina, N.; Kaiser, J.C.; Pröhl, G.

    2013-01-01

    Biosphere models are used to evaluate the exposure of populations to radionuclides from a deep geological repository. Since the time frame for assessments of long-time disposal safety is 1 million years, potential future climate changes need to be accounted for. Potential future climate conditions were defined for northern Germany according to model results from the BIOCLIM project. Nine present day reference climate regions were defined to cover those future climate conditions. A biosphere model was developed according to the BIOMASS methodology of the IAEA and model parameters were adjusted to the conditions at the reference climate regions. The model includes exposure pathways common to those reference climate regions in a stylized biosphere and relevant to the exposure of a hypothetical self-sustaining population at the site of potential radionuclide contamination from a deep geological repository. The end points of the model are Biosphere Dose Conversion factors (BDCF) for a range of radionuclides and scenarios normalized for a constant radionuclide concentration in near-surface groundwater. Model results suggest an increased exposure of in dry climate regions with a high impact of drinking water consumption rates and the amount of irrigation water used for agriculture. - Highlights: ► We model Biosphere Dose Conversion Factors for a representative group exposed to radionuclides from a waste repository. ► The BDCF are modeled for different soil types. ► One model is used for the assessment of the influence of climate change during the disposal time frame.

  14. Development of a Watershed-Scale Long-Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment Model with the Asymptotic Curve Number Regression Equation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jichul Ryu

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available In this study, 52 asymptotic Curve Number (CN regression equations were developed for combinations of representative land covers and hydrologic soil groups. In addition, to overcome the limitations of the original Long-term Hydrologic Impact Assessment (L-THIA model when it is applied to larger watersheds, a watershed-scale L-THIA Asymptotic CN (ACN regression equation model (watershed-scale L-THIA ACN model was developed by integrating the asymptotic CN regressions and various modules for direct runoff/baseflow/channel routing. The watershed-scale L-THIA ACN model was applied to four watersheds in South Korea to evaluate the accuracy of its streamflow prediction. The coefficient of determination (R2 and Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE values for observed versus simulated streamflows over intervals of eight days were greater than 0.6 for all four of the watersheds. The watershed-scale L-THIA ACN model, including the asymptotic CN regression equation method, can simulate long-term streamflow sufficiently well with the ten parameters that have been added for the characterization of streamflow.

  15. Assessing Impact, DIF, and DFF in Accommodated Item Scores: A Comparison of Multilevel Measurement Model Parameterizations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beretvas, S. Natasha; Cawthon, Stephanie W.; Lockhart, L. Leland; Kaye, Alyssa D.

    2012-01-01

    This pedagogical article is intended to explain the similarities and differences between the parameterizations of two multilevel measurement model (MMM) frameworks. The conventional two-level MMM that includes item indicators and models item scores (Level 1) clustered within examinees (Level 2) and the two-level cross-classified MMM (in which item…

  16. Assessing the impact of different sources of topographic data on 1-D hydraulic modelling of floods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali, A. Md; Solomatine, D. P.; Di Baldassarre, G.

    2015-01-01

    Topographic data, such as digital elevation models (DEMs), are essential input in flood inundation modelling. DEMs can be derived from several sources either through remote sensing techniques (spaceborne or airborne imagery) or from traditional methods (ground survey). The Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER), the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), the light detection and ranging (lidar), and topographic contour maps are some of the most commonly used sources of data for DEMs. These DEMs are characterized by different precision and accuracy. On the one hand, the spatial resolution of low-cost DEMs from satellite imagery, such as ASTER and SRTM, is rather coarse (around 30 to 90 m). On the other hand, the lidar technique is able to produce high-resolution DEMs (at around 1 m), but at a much higher cost. Lastly, contour mapping based on ground survey is time consuming, particularly for higher scales, and may not be possible for some remote areas. The use of these different sources of DEM obviously affects the results of flood inundation models. This paper shows and compares a number of 1-D hydraulic models developed using HEC-RAS as model code and the aforementioned sources of DEM as geometric input. To test model selection, the outcomes of the 1-D models were also compared, in terms of flood water levels, to the results of 2-D models (LISFLOOD-FP). The study was carried out on a reach of the Johor River, in Malaysia. The effect of the different sources of DEMs (and different resolutions) was investigated by considering the performance of the hydraulic models in simulating flood water levels as well as inundation maps. The outcomes of our study show that the use of different DEMs has serious implications to the results of hydraulic models. The outcomes also indicate that the loss of model accuracy due to re-sampling the highest resolution DEM (i.e. lidar 1 m) to lower resolution is much less than the loss of model accuracy due

  17. A thermal impact assessment model with measured field data applied to the tidal river Weser

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haeuser, J.; Eppel, D.; Mueller, A.; Nehlsen, A.; Tanzer, F.

    1981-01-01

    This paper presents the fundamental principles, the general outline, and a specific application of the model UTRANS (unified transport system) with emphasis on the results of application. The model simulates the temperature distribution, generated by the nuclear power plant KKU (1300 MWsub(e)), in the lower Weser river (within tidal cycle) for october 3, 1979. The model was run for a period of 24 hours. The solution area of some 15 kilometers (km 44 to km 59) consists of about 1100 discrete elements (DE) of variable size and irregular shape. (orig.) [de

  18. SWAT Model Application to Assess the Impact of Intensive Corn‐farming on Runoff, Sediments and Phosphorous loss from an Agricultural Watershed in Wisconsin

    Science.gov (United States)

    The potential future increase in corn-based biofuel may be expected to have a negative impact on water quality in streams and lakes of the Midwestern US due to increased agricultural chemicals usage. This study used the SWAT model to assess the impact of continuous-corn farming o...

  19. Assessing the impact of a tutorial intervention when teaching the ray model of light in introductory physics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kesonen, M H P; Asikainen, M A; Hirvonen, P E

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a 90 min tutorial intervention which permits the use of the Tutorials in Introductory Physics curriculum in a conventional physics course. In addition, the paper describes the impact of the intervention on students' understanding of the ray model of light in the context of geometrical images. In 2011 and 2012 a total of 79 introductory students participated in the intervention, where they worked with the Light and Shadow tutorial after having received lecture-based instruction in a conventional physics course. The impact of the intervention on the students' learning was assessed by means of paper-and-pencil test questions at the beginning and end of the intervention. The results showed that the proportion of correct or nearly correct answers increased by 17 percentage points during the intervention. Thus, it can be claimed that the intervention was a useful supplement to a conventional physics course by helping students to improve their understanding of the ray model of light. In addition, the intervention may serve as an intermediate step towards adopting the tutorials, since it permits the curriculum of a conventional physics course to be tested without large changes being made to the course. This type of information is needed in support of institutional changes towards more research-based instructional practices. (paper)

  20. Assessing model characterization of single source secondary pollutant impacts using 2013 SENEX field study measurements

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The dataset consists of 4 comma-separated value (csv) text files and 3 netCDF data files. Each csv file contains the observed and CMAQ modeled gas and aerosol...

  1. A model validation framework for climate change projection and impact assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henrik; Refsgaard, Jens C.; Andréassian, Vazken

    2014-01-01

    methods for projection of climate change (single and ensemble model projections and space‐timesubstitution) and use of different data sources as proxy for future climate conditions (long historical records comprising non‐ stationarity, paleo data, and controlled experiments). The basic guiding principles...... proxy data, reflecting future conditions. This test can be used with both single and ensemble model projections as well as with space‐time‐substitutions. It is generally expected to be more powerful when applied to a model ensemble than to a single model. Since space‐timesubstitutions include...... a differential split‐sample test using best available proxy data that reflect the expected future conditions at the site being considered. Such proxy data may be obtained from long historical records comprising nonstationarity, paleo data, or controlled experiments. The test can be applied with different...

  2. Radiological impact assessment within the IAEA Arctic Assessment Project (IASAP)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scott, E.M.; Gurbutt, P.; Harmes, I.

    1998-01-01

    As part of the International Arctic Seas Assessment Project (IASAP) of IAEA, a working group was created to model the dispersal and transfer of radionuclides released from radioactive waste disposed of in the Kara Sea and bays of Novaya Zemlya and to assess the radiological impact. Existing models...

  3. Developments in Social Impact Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vanclay, Frank

    2014-01-01

    Along with environmental impact assessment, social impact assessment (SIA) has its origins in the 1970s and has developed from being a tool to meet regulatory requirements, to a discipline that seeks to contribute proactively to better project and policy development and to enhance the wellbeing of

  4. Environmental Impact Assessment: A Procedure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stover, Lloyd V.

    Prepared by a firm of consulting engineers, this booklet outlines the procedural "whys and hows" of assessing environmental impact, particularly for the construction industry. Section I explores the need for environmental assessment and evaluation to determine environmental impact. It utilizes a review of the National Environmental Policy Act and…

  5. Assessment of the biophysical impacts of utility-scale photovoltaics through observations and modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broadbent, A. M.; Georgescu, M.; Krayenhoff, E. S.; Sailor, D.

    2017-12-01

    Utility-scale solar power plants are a rapidly growing component of the solar energy sector. Utility-scale photovoltaic (PV) solar power generation in the United States has increased by 867% since 2012 (EIA, 2016). This expansion is likely to continue as the cost PV technologies decrease. While most agree that solar power can decrease greenhouse gas emissions, the biophysical effects of PV systems on surface energy balance (SEB), and implications for surface climate, are not well understood. To our knowledge, there has never been a detailed observational study of SEB at a utility-scale solar array. This study presents data from an eddy covariance observational tower, temporarily placed above a utility-scale PV array in Southern Arizona. Comparison of PV SEB with a reference (unmodified) site, shows that solar panels can alter the SEB and near surface climate. SEB observations are used to develop and validate a new and more complete SEB PV model. In addition, the PV model is compared to simpler PV modelling methods. The simpler PV models produce differing results to our newly developed model and cannot capture the more complex processes that influence PV SEB. Finally, hypothetical scenarios of PV expansion across the continental United States (CONUS) were developed using various spatial mapping criteria. CONUS simulations of PV expansion reveal regional variability in biophysical effects of PV expansion. The study presents the first rigorous and validated simulations of the biophysical effects of utility-scale PV arrays.

  6. Policy Research Using Agent-Based Modeling to Assess Future Impacts of Urban Expansion into Farmlands and Forests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael R. Guzy

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available The expansion of urban land uses into farmlands and forests requires an assessment of future ecological impacts. Spatially explicit agent-based models can represent the changes in resilience and ecological services that result from different land-use policies. When modeling complex adaptive systems, both the methods used to interpret results and the standards of rigor used to judge adequacy are complicated and require additional research. Recent studies suggest that it would be appropriate to use these models as an extension of exploratory analysis. This type of analysis generates ensembles of alternate plausible representations of future system conditions. User expertise steers interactive, stepwise system exploration toward inductive reasoning about potential changes to the system. In this study, we develop understanding of the potential alternative futures for a social-ecological system by way of successive simulations that test variations in the types and numbers of policies. The model addresses the agricultural-urban interface and the preservation of ecosystem services. The landscape analyzed is at the junction of the McKenzie and Willamette Rivers adjacent to the cities of Eugene and Springfield in Lane County, Oregon. Our exploration of alternative future scenarios suggests that policies that constrain urban growth and create incentives for farming and forest enterprises to preserve and enhance habitat can protect ecosystem resilience and services.

  7. Organic carbon recovery modeling for a rotating belt filter and its impact assessment on a plant-wide scale

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Behera, Chitta Ranjan; Santoro, Domenico; Gernaey, Krist V.

    2018-01-01

    In this study, we perform a systematic plant-wide assessment of the organic carbon recovery concept on wastewater treatment plants by an advanced cellulose recovery enabling technology called rotating belt filter (RBF). To this end, first, an empirical model is developed to describe organic carbon...... recovery by the RBF, which is then used for the plant-wide performance evaluation to further understand the impact of organic carbon recovery by framing four different scenarios. The key features of the scenario analysis are: (i) an RBF operating with thick mat increases methane production (around 10...... %) and brings down aeration energy demand (by 8 %) compared to the primary clarifier (PC) and, (ii) the sludge retention time (SRT) of the activated sludge (AS) tank increases by 55 % when an RBF runs with thick mat and therefore promotes higher nitrification rate, (iii) organic carbon recovery by the RBF does...

  8. Pathways and impacts of nitrogen in water bodies: establishing a framework for integrated assessment modelling of management benefits

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Mikael Skou; Kronvang, Brian; Carstensen, Jacob

    Monetization of environmental benefits has become relevant as an element of proportionality tests required for justifications under the EU’s Water Framework Directive article 4 (relating to benefits andcosts of measures). This study extends an impact pathway approach to analysis of aquatic...... the study demonstrates how state-of-the-art environmental modelling can be linked with valuation to provide an adequate cross-media assessment framework relevant to integrated water quality management. The results must be regarded as illustrative and more research is required in several areas to consolidate...... relationships relating to exposures. The findings nevertheless suggest the significance of health effects for overall monetary benefits related to ecological quality objectives for water....

  9. Analysis and study on generic models for use in assessing the impact of radioactive liquid effluent to the environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ma Wenlin; Cao Jianzu; Fang Dong

    2008-01-01

    The assessment of the impact of discharges of radioactive substances into surface water under normal condition of nuclear facilities is an important part of the environmental impact analysis. Generic methods for assessing the impact of radioactive liquid effluent release into surface water provided by IAEA Safety Reports Series 19 are studied in this paper, and also an example calculation that assesses the impact of radioactive surface water discharge of HTR-PM ( High Temperature Air-cooled Reactor demonstration unit) in Anhui is presented in this paper to illustrate that a simplified but conservative assessment can be used for the purpose of screening proposed radioactive discharges. If the results meet the relevant requirements specified by the relevant regulatory authority, the further calculations are not needed. If they fails to meet the requirements, the more field data are to be sampled for calculations by more sophisticated mode or otherwise. (authors)

  10. Integrating Plant Science and Crop Modeling: Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on Soybean and Maize Production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fodor, Nándor; Challinor, Andrew; Droutsas, Ioannis; Ramirez-Villegas, Julian; Zabel, Florian; Koehler, Ann-Kristin; Foyer, Christine H

    2017-11-01

    Increasing global CO2 emissions have profound consequences for plant biology, not least because of direct influences on carbon gain. However, much remains uncertain regarding how our major crops will respond to a future high CO2 world. Crop model inter-comparison studies have identified large uncertainties and biases associated with climate change. The need to quantify uncertainty has drawn the fields of plant molecular physiology, crop breeding and biology, and climate change modeling closer together. Comparing data from different models that have been used to assess the potential climate change impacts on soybean and maize production, future yield losses have been predicted for both major crops. When CO2 fertilization effects are taken into account significant yield gains are predicted for soybean, together with a shift in global production from the Southern to the Northern hemisphere. Maize production is also forecast to shift northwards. However, unless plant breeders are able to produce new hybrids with improved traits, the forecasted yield losses for maize will only be mitigated by agro-management adaptations. In addition, the increasing demands of a growing world population will require larger areas of marginal land to be used for maize and soybean production. We summarize the outputs of crop models, together with mitigation options for decreasing the negative impacts of climate on the global maize and soybean production, providing an overview of projected land-use change as a major determining factor for future global crop production. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Japanese Society of Plant Physiologists.

  11. Evaluating water management strategies with the Systems Impact Assessment Model: SIAM version 4

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartholow, John M.; Heasley, John; Hanna, Blair; Sandelin, Jeff; Flug, Marshall; Campbell, Sharon; Henriksen, Jim; Douglas, Aaron

    2005-01-01

    Water from many of California's coastal rivers has been used for a wide variety of development ventures, including major agricultural diversions, hydropower generation, and contaminant assimilation from industry, agriculture and logging. Anthropogenic impacts often degrade water quality and decrease the quantity and quality of aquatic habitat. Reallocating streamflow away from uses that degrade water quality to uses that foster higher water quality is a critical step in restoring riverine habitat and the anadromous fish that rely on that habitat for a portion of their life cycle. Reallocation always brings with it the need to examine the economic efficiency of the proposed changes. If the dollar benefits of improving water quality are greater than the costs, the criterion of improving economic efficiency is satisfied, a fact that can be highly persuasive to decision makers contemplating reallocation.

  12. Assessing ozone and nitrogen impact on net primary productivity with a Generalised non-Linear Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Marco, Alessandra; Screpanti, Augusto; Attorre, Fabio; Proietti, Chiara; Vitale, Marcello

    2013-01-01

    Some studies suggest that in Europe the majority of forest growth increment can be accounted for N deposition and very little by elevated CO 2 . High ozone (O 3 ) concentrations cause reductions in carbon fixation in native plants by offsetting the effects of elevated CO 2 or N deposition. The cause-effect relationships between primary productivity (NPP) of Quercus cerris, Q. ilex and Fagus sylvatica plant species and climate and pollutants (O 3 and N deposition) in Italy have been investigated by application of Generalised Linear/non-Linear regression model (GLZ model). The GLZ model highlighted: i) cumulative O 3 concentration-based indicator (AOT40F) did not significantly affect NPP; ii) a differential action of oxidised and reduced nitrogen depositions to NPP was linked to the geographical location; iii) the species-specific variation of NPP caused by combination of pollutants and climatic variables could be a potentially important drive-factor for the plant species' shift as response to the future climate change. - Highlights: ► GLZ Models emphasized the role of combination of variables affecting NPP. ► A differential action of ox-N and red-N deposition to NPP was observed for plants. ► Different responses to climate and pollutants could affect the plant species' shift. - Ozone and nitrogen depositions have non-linear effects on primary productivity of tree species differently distributed in Italy.

  13. A Groundwater Model to Assess Water Resource Impacts at the Brenda Solar Energy Zone

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Quinn, John [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Carr, Adrianne E. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Greer, Chris [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Bowen, Esther E. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

    2013-12-01

    The purpose of this study is to develop a groundwater flow model to examine the influence of potential groundwater withdrawal to support utility-scale solar energy development at the Brenda Solar Energy Zone (SEZ), as a part of the Bureau of Land Management’s (BLM’s) Solar Energy Program.

  14. A Groundwater Model to Assess Water Resource Impacts at the Imperial East Solar Energy Zone

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Quinn, John [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Greer, Chris [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); O' Connor, Ben L. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Tompson, Andrew F.B. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2013-12-01

    The purpose of this study is to develop a groundwater flow model to examine the influence of potential groundwater withdrawal to support the utility-scale solar energy development at the Imperial East Solar Energy Zone (SEZ) as a part of the Bureau of Land Management’s (BLM) solar energy program.

  15. Conceptualising the effectiveness of impact assessment processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chanchitpricha, Chaunjit; Bond, Alan

    2013-01-01

    This paper aims at conceptualising the effectiveness of impact assessment processes through the development of a literature-based framework of criteria to measure impact assessment effectiveness. Four categories of effectiveness were established: procedural, substantive, transactive and normative, each containing a number of criteria; no studies have previously brought together all four of these categories into such a comprehensive, criteria-based framework and undertaken systematic evaluation of practice. The criteria can be mapped within a cycle/or cycles of evaluation, based on the ‘logic model’, at the stages of input, process, output and outcome to enable the identification of connections between the criteria across the categories of effectiveness. This framework is considered to have potential application in measuring the effectiveness of many impact assessment processes, including strategic environmental assessment (SEA), environmental impact assessment (EIA), social impact assessment (SIA) and health impact assessment (HIA). -- Highlights: • Conceptualising effectiveness of impact assessment processes. • Identification of factors influencing effectiveness of impact assessment processes. • Development of criteria within a framework for evaluating IA effectiveness. • Applying the logic model to examine connections between effectiveness criteria

  16. Conceptualising the effectiveness of impact assessment processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chanchitpricha, Chaunjit, E-mail: chaunjit@g.sut.ac.th [School of Environmental Health, Suranaree University of Technology, 111 University Avenue, Maung District, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 (Thailand); Bond, Alan, E-mail: alan.bond@uea.ac.uk [School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ (United Kingdom); Unit for Environmental Sciences and Management School of Geo and Spatial Sciences, Internal Box 375, North West University (Potchefstroom campus) (South Africa)

    2013-11-15

    This paper aims at conceptualising the effectiveness of impact assessment processes through the development of a literature-based framework of criteria to measure impact assessment effectiveness. Four categories of effectiveness were established: procedural, substantive, transactive and normative, each containing a number of criteria; no studies have previously brought together all four of these categories into such a comprehensive, criteria-based framework and undertaken systematic evaluation of practice. The criteria can be mapped within a cycle/or cycles of evaluation, based on the ‘logic model’, at the stages of input, process, output and outcome to enable the identification of connections between the criteria across the categories of effectiveness. This framework is considered to have potential application in measuring the effectiveness of many impact assessment processes, including strategic environmental assessment (SEA), environmental impact assessment (EIA), social impact assessment (SIA) and health impact assessment (HIA). -- Highlights: • Conceptualising effectiveness of impact assessment processes. • Identification of factors influencing effectiveness of impact assessment processes. • Development of criteria within a framework for evaluating IA effectiveness. • Applying the logic model to examine connections between effectiveness criteria.

  17. Thermal Impact Assessment of Groundwater Heat Pumps (GWHPs: Rigorous vs. Simplified Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruno Piga

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Groundwater Heat Pumps (GWHPs are increasingly adopted for air conditioning in urban areas, thus reducing CO2 emissions, and this growth needs to be managed to ensure the sustainability of the thermal alteration of aquifers. However, few studies have addressed the propagation of thermal plumes from open-loop geothermal systems from a long-term perspective. We provide a comprehensive sensitivity analysis, performed with numerical finite-element simulations, to assess how the size of the thermally affected zone is driven by hydrodynamic and thermal subsurface properties, the vadose zone and aquifer thickness, and plant setup. In particular, we focus the analysis on the length and width of thermal plumes, and on their time evolution. Numerical simulations are compared with two simplified methods, namely (i replacing the time-varying thermal load with its yearly average and (ii analytical formulae for advective heat transport in the aquifer. The former proves acceptable for the assessment of plume length, while the latter can be used to estimate the width of the thermally affected zone. The results highlight the strong influence of groundwater velocity on the plume size and, especially for its long-term evolution, of ground thermal properties and of subsurface geometrical parameters.

  18. High resolution weather data for urban hydrological modelling and impact assessment, ICT requirements and future challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    ten Veldhuis, Marie-claire; van Riemsdijk, Birna

    2013-04-01

    Hydrological analysis of urban catchments requires high resolution rainfall and catchment information because of the small size of these catchments, high spatial variability of the urban fabric, fast runoff processes and related short response times. Rainfall information available from traditional radar and rain gauge networks does no not meet the relevant scales of urban hydrology. A new type of weather radars, based on X-band frequency and equipped with Doppler and dual polarimetry capabilities, promises to provide more accurate rainfall estimates at the spatial and temporal scales that are required for urban hydrological analysis. Recently, the RAINGAIN project was started to analyse the applicability of this new type of radars in the context of urban hydrological modelling. In this project, meteorologists and hydrologists work closely together in several stages of urban hydrological analysis: from the acquisition procedure of novel and high-end radar products to data acquisition and processing, rainfall data retrieval, hydrological event analysis and forecasting. The project comprises of four pilot locations with various characteristics of weather radar equipment, ground stations, urban hydrological systems, modelling approaches and requirements. Access to data processing and modelling software is handled in different ways in the pilots, depending on ownership and user context. Sharing of data and software among pilots and with the outside world is an ongoing topic of discussion. The availability of high resolution weather data augments requirements with respect to the resolution of hydrological models and input data. This has led to the development of fully distributed hydrological models, the implementation of which remains limited by the unavailability of hydrological input data. On the other hand, if models are to be used in flood forecasting, hydrological models need to be computationally efficient to enable fast responses to extreme event conditions. This

  19. Modelled surface ozone over southern africa during the cross border air pollution impact assessment project

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Zunckel, M

    2006-07-01

    Full Text Available , T.S., Kasibhatla, P., Hao, W., Sistla, G., Mathur, R., Mc Henry, J., 2001. Evaluating the performance of regional-scale photochemical modelling systems: Part II-ozone predictions. Atmospheric Environment 35, 4175e4188. Jenkins, M.J., Clemitshaw, K.... These conditions are favourable to the formation of ozone and suggest that ozone concentrations over southern Africa may be relatively high. Ozone is an important constituent in tropospheric chemistry (Jenkins and Clemitshaw, 2000). It is also associated...

  20. Applicability of ranked Regional Climate Models (RCM) to assess the impact of climate change on Ganges: A case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anand, Jatin; Devak, Manjula; Gosain, Ashvani Kumar; Khosa, Rakesh; Dhanya, Ct

    2017-04-01

    The negative impact of climate change is felt over wide range of spatial scales, ranging from small basins to large watershed area, which can possibly outweighs the benefits of natural water system. General Circulation Models (GCMs) has been widely used as an input to a hydrological models (HMs), to simulate different hydrological components of a river basin. However, the coarser scale of GCMs and spatio-temporal biases, restricted its use at finer resolution. If downscaled, adds one more level of uncertainty i.e., downscaling uncertainty together with model and scenario uncertainty. The outputs computed from Regional Climate Models (RCM) may aid the uncertainties arising from GCMs, as the RCMs are the miniatures of GCMs. However, the RCMs do have some inherent systematic biases, hence bias correction is a prerequisite process before it is fed to HMs. RCMs, together with the input from GCMs at later boundaries also takes topography of the area into account. Hence, RCMs need to be ranked a priori. In this study, impact of climate change on the Ganga basin, India, is assessed using the ranked RCMs. Firstly, bias correction of 14 RCM models are done using Quantile-Quantile mapping and Equidistant cumulative distribution method, for historic (1990-2004) and future scenario (2021-2100), respectively. The runoff simulations from Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), for historic scenario is used for ranking of RCMs. Entropy and PROMETHEE-2 method is employed to rank the RCMs based on five performance indicators namely, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), coefficient of determination (R2), normalised root mean square error (NRMSE), absolute normalised mean bias error (ANMBE) and average absolute relative error (AARE). The results illustrated that each of the performance indicators behaves differently for different RCMs. RCA 4 (CNRM-CERFACS) is found as the best model with the highest value of  (0.85), followed by RCA4 (MIROC) and RCA4 (ICHEC) with  values of 0.80 and 0

  1. Assessing the impact of intervention strategies against Taenia solium cysticercosis using the EPICYST transmission model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winskill, Peter; Harrison, Wendy E; French, Michael D; Dixon, Matthew A; Abela-Ridder, Bernadette; Basáñez, María-Gloria

    2017-02-09

    The pork tapeworm, Taenia solium, and associated human infections, taeniasis, cysticercosis and neurocysticercosis, are serious public health problems, especially in developing countries. The World Health Organization (WHO) has set goals for having a validated strategy for control and elimination of T. solium taeniasis/cysticercosis by 2015 and interventions scaled-up in selected countries by 2020. Timely achievement of these internationally-endorsed targets requires that the relative benefits and effectiveness of potential interventions be explored rigorously within a quantitative framework. A deterministic, compartmental transmission model (EPICYST) was developed to capture the dynamics of the taeniasis/cysticercosis disease system in the human and pig hosts. Cysticercosis prevalence in humans, an outcome of high epidemiological and clinical importance, was explicitly modelled. A next generation matrix approach was used to derive an expression for the basic reproduction number, R 0 . A full sensitivity analysis was performed using a methodology based on Latin-hypercube sampling partial rank correlation coefficient index. EPICYST outputs indicate that chemotherapeutic intervention targeted at humans or pigs would be highly effective at reducing taeniasis and cysticercosis prevalence when applied singly, with annual chemotherapy of humans and pigs resulting, respectively, in 94 and 74% of human cysticercosis cases averted. Improved sanitation, meat inspection and animal husbandry are less effective but are still able to reduce prevalence singly or in combination. The value of R 0 for taeniasis was estimated at 1.4 (95% Credible Interval: 0.5-3.6). Human- and pig-targeted drug-focussed interventions appear to be the most efficacious approach from the options currently available. The model presented is a forward step towards developing an informed control and elimination strategy for cysticercosis. Together with its validation against field data, EPICYST will be a

  2. A multi-model assessment of the impact of sea spray geoengineering on cloud droplet number

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. J. Pringle

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Artificially increasing the albedo of marine boundary layer clouds by the mechanical emission of sea spray aerosol has been proposed as a geoengineering technique to slow the warming caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gases. A previous global model study (Korhonen et al., 2010 found that only modest increases (< 20% and sometimes even decreases in cloud drop number (CDN concentrations would result from emission scenarios calculated using a windspeed dependent geoengineering flux parameterisation. Here we extend that work to examine the conditions under which decreases in CDN can occur, and use three independent global models to quantify maximum achievable CDN changes. We find that decreases in CDN can occur when at least three of the following conditions are met: the injected particle number is < 100 cm−3, the injected diameter is > 250–300 nm, the background aerosol loading is large (≥ 150 cm−3 and the in-cloud updraught velocity is low (< 0.2 m s−1. With lower background loadings and/or increased updraught velocity, significant increases in CDN can be achieved. None of the global models predict a decrease in CDN as a result of geoengineering, although there is considerable diversity in the calculated efficiency of geoengineering, which arises from the diversity in the simulated marine aerosol distributions. All three models show a small dependence of geoengineering efficiency on the injected particle size and the geometric standard deviation of the injected mode. However, the achievability of significant cloud drop enhancements is strongly dependent on the cloud updraught speed. With an updraught speed of 0.1 m s−1 a global mean CDN of 375 cm−3 (previously estimated to cancel the forcing caused by CO2 doubling is achievable in only about 50% of grid boxes which have > 50% cloud cover, irrespective of the amount of aerosol injected. But at stronger updraft speeds (0

  3. Assessment of the Potential Impacts of Wheat Plant Traits across Environments by Combining Crop Modeling and Global Sensitivity Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casadebaig, Pierre; Zheng, Bangyou; Chapman, Scott; Huth, Neil; Faivre, Robert; Chenu, Karine

    2016-01-01

    A crop can be viewed as a complex system with outputs (e.g. yield) that are affected by inputs of genetic, physiology, pedo-climatic and management information. Application of numerical methods for model exploration assist in evaluating the major most influential inputs, providing the simulation model is a credible description of the biological system. A sensitivity analysis was used to assess the simulated impact on yield of a suite of traits involved in major processes of crop growth and development, and to evaluate how the simulated value of such traits varies across environments and in relation to other traits (which can be interpreted as a virtual change in genetic background). The study focused on wheat in Australia, with an emphasis on adaptation to low rainfall conditions. A large set of traits (90) was evaluated in a wide target population of environments (4 sites × 125 years), management practices (3 sowing dates × 3 nitrogen fertilization levels) and CO2 (2 levels). The Morris sensitivity analysis method was used to sample the parameter space and reduce computational requirements, while maintaining a realistic representation of the targeted trait × environment × management landscape (∼ 82 million individual simulations in total). The patterns of parameter × environment × management interactions were investigated for the most influential parameters, considering a potential genetic range of +/- 20% compared to a reference cultivar. Main (i.e. linear) and interaction (i.e. non-linear and interaction) sensitivity indices calculated for most of APSIM-Wheat parameters allowed the identification of 42 parameters substantially impacting yield in most target environments. Among these, a subset of parameters related to phenology, resource acquisition, resource use efficiency and biomass allocation were identified as potential candidates for crop (and model) improvement. PMID:26799483

  4. Assessment of the Potential Impacts of Wheat Plant Traits across Environments by Combining Crop Modeling and Global Sensitivity Analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pierre Casadebaig

    Full Text Available A crop can be viewed as a complex system with outputs (e.g. yield that are affected by inputs of genetic, physiology, pedo-climatic and management information. Application of numerical methods for model exploration assist in evaluating the major most influential inputs, providing the simulation model is a credible description of the biological system. A sensitivity analysis was used to assess the simulated impact on yield of a suite of traits involved in major processes of crop growth and development, and to evaluate how the simulated value of such traits varies across environments and in relation to other traits (which can be interpreted as a virtual change in genetic background. The study focused on wheat in Australia, with an emphasis on adaptation to low rainfall conditions. A large set of traits (90 was evaluated in a wide target population of environments (4 sites × 125 years, management practices (3 sowing dates × 3 nitrogen fertilization levels and CO2 (2 levels. The Morris sensitivity analysis method was used to sample the parameter space and reduce computational requirements, while maintaining a realistic representation of the targeted trait × environment × management landscape (∼ 82 million individual simulations in total. The patterns of parameter × environment × management interactions were investigated for the most influential parameters, considering a potential genetic range of +/- 20% compared to a reference cultivar. Main (i.e. linear and interaction (i.e. non-linear and interaction sensitivity indices calculated for most of APSIM-Wheat parameters allowed the identification of 42 parameters substantially impacting yield in most target environments. Among these, a subset of parameters related to phenology, resource acquisition, resource use efficiency and biomass allocation were identified as potential candidates for crop (and model improvement.

  5. Assessment of the Potential Impacts of Wheat Plant Traits across Environments by Combining Crop Modeling and Global Sensitivity Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casadebaig, Pierre; Zheng, Bangyou; Chapman, Scott; Huth, Neil; Faivre, Robert; Chenu, Karine

    2016-01-01

    A crop can be viewed as a complex system with outputs (e.g. yield) that are affected by inputs of genetic, physiology, pedo-climatic and management information. Application of numerical methods for model exploration assist in evaluating the major most influential inputs, providing the simulation model is a credible description of the biological system. A sensitivity analysis was used to assess the simulated impact on yield of a suite of traits involved in major processes of crop growth and development, and to evaluate how the simulated value of such traits varies across environments and in relation to other traits (which can be interpreted as a virtual change in genetic background). The study focused on wheat in Australia, with an emphasis on adaptation to low rainfall conditions. A large set of traits (90) was evaluated in a wide target population of environments (4 sites × 125 years), management practices (3 sowing dates × 3 nitrogen fertilization levels) and CO2 (2 levels). The Morris sensitivity analysis method was used to sample the parameter space and reduce computational requirements, while maintaining a realistic representation of the targeted trait × environment × management landscape (∼ 82 million individual simulations in total). The patterns of parameter × environment × management interactions were investigated for the most influential parameters, considering a potential genetic range of +/- 20% compared to a reference cultivar. Main (i.e. linear) and interaction (i.e. non-linear and interaction) sensitivity indices calculated for most of APSIM-Wheat parameters allowed the identification of 42 parameters substantially impacting yield in most target environments. Among these, a subset of parameters related to phenology, resource acquisition, resource use efficiency and biomass allocation were identified as potential candidates for crop (and model) improvement.

  6. Using the Five Domains Model to Assess the Adverse Impacts of Husbandry, Veterinary, and Equitation Interventions on Horse Welfare.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGreevy, Paul; Berger, Jeannine; de Brauwere, Nic; Doherty, Orla; Harrison, Anna; Fiedler, Julie; Jones, Claudia; McDonnell, Sue; McLean, Andrew; Nakonechny, Lindsay; Nicol, Christine; Preshaw, Liane; Thomson, Peter; Tzioumis, Vicky; Webster, John; Wolfensohn, Sarah; Yeates, James; Jones, Bidda

    2018-03-18

    The aim of this study was to conduct a series of paper-based exercises in order to assess the negative (adverse) welfare impacts, if any, of common interventions on domestic horses across a broad range of different contexts of equine care and training. An international panel (with professional expertise in psychology, equitation science, veterinary science, education, welfare, equestrian coaching, advocacy, and community engagement; n = 16) met over a four-day period to define and assess these interventions, using an adaptation of the domain-based assessment model. The interventions were considered within 14 contexts: C1 Weaning; C2 Diet; C3 Housing; C4 Foundation training; C5 Ill-health and veterinary interventions (chiefly medical); C6 Ill-health and veterinary interventions (chiefly surgical); C7 Elective procedures; C8 Care procedures; C9 Restraint for management procedures; C10 Road transport; C11 Activity-competition; C12 Activity-work; C13 Activity-breeding females; and C14 Activity-breeding males. Scores on a 1-10 scale for Domain 5 (the mental domain) gathered during the workshop were compared with overall impact scores on a 1-10 scale assigned by the same panellists individually before the workshop. The most severe (median and interquartile range, IQR) impacts within each context were identified during the workshop as: C1 abrupt, individual weaning (10 IQR 1); C2 feeding 100% low-energy concentrate (8 IQR 2.5); C3 indoor tie stalls with no social contact (9 IQR 1.5); C4 both (i) dropping horse with ropes (9 IQR 0.5) and forced flexion (9 IQR 0.5); C5 long-term curative medical treatments (8 IQR 3); C6 major deep intracavity surgery (8.5 IQR 1); C7 castration without veterinary supervision (10 IQR 1); C8 both (i) tongue ties (8 IQR 2.5) and (ii) restrictive nosebands (8 IQR 2.5); C9 ear twitch (8 IQR 1); C10 both (i) individual transport (7.00 IQR 1.5) and group transport with unfamiliar companions (7 IQR 1.5); C11 both (i) jumps racing (8 IQR 2.5) and

  7. Using the Five Domains Model to Assess the Adverse Impacts of Husbandry, Veterinary, and Equitation Interventions on Horse Welfare

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul McGreevy

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to conduct a series of paper-based exercises in order to assess the negative (adverse welfare impacts, if any, of common interventions on domestic horses across a broad range of different contexts of equine care and training. An international panel (with professional expertise in psychology, equitation science, veterinary science, education, welfare, equestrian coaching, advocacy, and community engagement; n = 16 met over a four-day period to define and assess these interventions, using an adaptation of the domain-based assessment model. The interventions were considered within 14 contexts: C1 Weaning; C2 Diet; C3 Housing; C4 Foundation training; C5 Ill-health and veterinary interventions (chiefly medical; C6 Ill-health and veterinary interventions (chiefly surgical; C7 Elective procedures; C8 Care procedures; C9 Restraint for management procedures; C10 Road transport; C11 Activity—competition; C12 Activity—work; C13 Activity—breeding females; and C14 Activity—breeding males. Scores on a 1–10 scale for Domain 5 (the mental domain gathered during the workshop were compared with overall impact scores on a 1–10 scale assigned by the same panellists individually before the workshop. The most severe (median and interquartile range, IQR impacts within each context were identified during the workshop as: C1 abrupt, individual weaning (10 IQR 1; C2 feeding 100% low-energy concentrate (8 IQR 2.5; C3 indoor tie stalls with no social contact (9 IQR 1.5; C4 both (i dropping horse with ropes (9 IQR 0.5 and forced flexion (9 IQR 0.5; C5 long-term curative medical treatments (8 IQR 3; C6 major deep intracavity surgery (8.5 IQR 1; C7 castration without veterinary supervision (10 IQR 1; C8 both (i tongue ties (8 IQR 2.5 and (ii restrictive nosebands (8 IQR 2.5; C9 ear twitch (8 IQR 1; C10 both (i individual transport (7.00 IQR 1.5 and group transport with unfamiliar companions (7 IQR 1.5; C11 both (i jumps racing (8 IQR 2

  8. Using the Five Domains Model to Assess the Adverse Impacts of Husbandry, Veterinary, and Equitation Interventions on Horse Welfare

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGreevy, Paul; Berger, Jeannine; de Brauwere, Nic; Doherty, Orla; Harrison, Anna; Fiedler, Julie; Jones, Claudia; McDonnell, Sue; McLean, Andrew; Nakonechny, Lindsay; Preshaw, Liane; Tzioumis, Vicky; Webster, John; Wolfensohn, Sarah; Yeates, James; Jones, Bidda

    2018-01-01

    Simple Summary Using an adaptation of the domain-based welfare assessment model, a panel of horse welfare professionals (with professional expertise in psychology, equitation science, veterinary science, education, welfare, equestrian coaching, advocacy, and community engagement) assessed the perceived harms, if any, resulting from 116 interventions that are commonly applied to horses. Scores for Domain 5 (the integrated mental impact) gathered after extensive discussion during a four-day workshop aligned well with overall impact scores assigned by the same panellists individually before the workshop, although some rankings changed after workshop participation. Domain 4 (Behaviour) had the strongest association with Domain 5, whilst Domain 1 (Nutrition) had the weakest association with Domain 5, implying that the panellists considered commonly applied nutritional interventions to have less of a bearing on subjective mental state than commonly applied behavioural restrictions. The workshop defined each intervention, and stated assumptions around each, resulting in a set of exemplar procedures that could be used in future equine welfare assessments. Abstract The aim of this study was to conduct a series of paper-based exercises in order to assess the negative (adverse) welfare impacts, if any, of common interventions on domestic horses across a broad range of different contexts of equine care and training. An international panel (with professional expertise in psychology, equitation science, veterinary science, education, welfare, equestrian coaching, advocacy, and community engagement; n = 16) met over a four-day period to define and assess these interventions, using an adaptation of the domain-based assessment model. The interventions were considered within 14 contexts: C1 Weaning; C2 Diet; C3 Housing; C4 Foundation training; C5 Ill-health and veterinary interventions (chiefly medical); C6 Ill-health and veterinary interventions (chiefly surgical); C7 Elective

  9. Possible impact of climate change on meningitis in northwest Nigeria: an assessment using CMIP5 climate model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdussalam, Auwal; Monaghan, Andrew; Steinhoff, Daniel; Dukic, Vanja; Hayden, Mary; Hopson, Thomas; Thornes, John; Leckebusch, Gregor

    2014-05-01

    Meningitis remains a major health burden throughout Sahelian Africa, especially in heavily-populated northwest Nigeria. Cases exhibit strong sensitivity to intra- and inter-annual climate variability, peaking during the hot and dry boreal spring months, raising concern that future climate change may increase the incidence of meningitis in the region. The impact of future climate change on meningitis risk in northwest Nigeria is assessed by forcing an empirical model of meningitis with monthly simulations from an ensemble of thirteen statistically downscaled global climate model projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Experiment Phase 5 (CMIP5) for RCPs 2.6, 6.0 and 8.5 scenarios. The results suggest future temperature increases due to climate change has the potential to significantly increase meningitis cases in both the early and late 21st century, and to increase the length of the meningitis season in the late century. March cases may increase from 23 per 100,000 people for present day (1990-2005), to 29-30 per 100,000 (p<0.01) in the early century (2020-2035) and 31-42 per 100,000 (p<0.01) in the late century (2060-2075), the range being dependent on the emissions scenario. It is noteworthy that these results represent the climatological potential for increased cases due to climate change, as we assume current prevention and treatment strategies remain similar in the future.

  10. A modelling methodology for assessing the impact of climate variability and climatic change on hydroelectric generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Munoz, J.R.; Sailor, D.J.

    1998-01-01

    A new methodology relating basic climatic variables to hydroelectric generation was developed. The methodology can be implemented in large or small basins with any number of hydro plants. The method was applied to the Sacramento, Eel and Russian river basins in northern California where more than 100 hydroelectric plants are located. The final model predicts the availability of hydroelectric generation for the entire basin provided present and near past climate conditions, with about 90% accuracy. The results can be used for water management purposes or for analyzing the effect of climate variability on hydrogeneration availability in the basin. A wide range of results can be obtained depending on the climate change scenario used. (Author)

  11. Exposure factors for marine eutrophication impacts assessment based on a mechanistic biological model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cosme, Nuno Miguel Dias; Koski, Marja; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky

    2015-01-01

    marine ecosystem (LME), five climate zones, and site-generic. The XFs obtained range from 0.45 (Central Arctic Ocean) to 15.9kgO2kgN-1 (Baltic Sea). While LME resolution is recommended, aggregated PE or XF per climate zone can be adopted, but not global aggregation due to high variability. The XF......Emissions of nitrogen (N) from anthropogenic sources enrich marine waters and promote planktonic growth. This newly synthesised organic carbon is eventually exported to benthic waters where aerobic respiration by heterotrophic bacteria results in the consumption of dissolved oxygen (DO......). This pathway is typical of marine eutrophication. A model is proposed to mechanistically estimate the response of coastal marine ecosystems to N inputs. It addresses the biological processes of nutrient-limited primary production (PP), metazoan consumption, and bacterial degradation, in four distinct sinking...

  12. Dust impact on surface solar irradiance assessed with model simulations, satellite observations and ground-based measurements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. G. Kosmopoulos

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available This study assesses the impact of dust on surface solar radiation focussing on an extreme dust event. For this purpose, we exploited the synergy of AERONET measurements and passive and active satellite remote sensing (MODIS and CALIPSO observations, in conjunction with radiative transfer model (RTM and chemical transport model (CTM simulations and the 1-day forecasts from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS. The area of interest is the eastern Mediterranean where anomalously high aerosol loads were recorded between 30 January and 3 February 2015. The intensity of the event was extremely high, with aerosol optical depth (AOD reaching 3.5, and optical/microphysical properties suggesting aged dust. RTM and CTM simulations were able to quantify the extent of dust impact on surface irradiances and reveal substantial reduction in solar energy exploitation capacity of PV and CSP installations under this high aerosol load. We found that such an extreme dust event can result in Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI attenuation by as much as 40–50 % and a much stronger Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI decrease (80–90 %, while spectrally this attenuation is distributed to 37 % in the UV region, 33 % in the visible and around 30 % in the infrared. CAMS forecasts provided a reliable available energy assessment (accuracy within 10 % of that obtained from MODIS. Spatially, the dust plume resulted in a zonally averaged reduction of GHI and DNI of the order of 150 W m−2 in southern Greece, and a mean increase of 20 W m−2 in the northern Greece as a result of lower AOD values combined with local atmospheric processes. This analysis of a real-world scenario contributes to the understanding and quantification of the impact range of high aerosol loads on solar energy and the potential for forecasting power generation failures at sunshine-privileged locations where solar power plants exist, are under construction or are

  13. Assessment of climate change impacts on climate variables using probabilistic ensemble modeling and trend analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safavi, Hamid R.; Sajjadi, Sayed Mahdi; Raghibi, Vahid

    2017-10-01

    Water resources in snow-dependent regions have undergone significant changes due to climate change. Snow measurements in these regions have revealed alarming declines in snowfall over the past few years. The Zayandeh-Rud River in central Iran chiefly depends on winter falls as snow for supplying water from wet regions in high Zagrous Mountains to the downstream, (semi-)arid, low-lying lands. In this study, the historical records (baseline: 1971-2000) of climate variables (temperature and precipitation) in the wet region were chosen to construct a probabilistic ensemble model using 15 GCMs in order to forecast future trends and changes while the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) was utilized to project climate variables under two A2 and B1 scenarios to a future period (2015-2044). Since future snow water equivalent (SWE) forecasts by GCMs were not available for the study area, an artificial neural network (ANN) was implemented to build a relationship between climate variables and snow water equivalent for the baseline period to estimate future snowfall amounts. As a last step, homogeneity and trend tests were performed to evaluate the robustness of the data series and changes were examined to detect past and future variations. Results indicate different characteristics of the climate variables at upstream stations. A shift is observed in the type of precipitation from snow to rain as well as in its quantities across the subregions. The key role in these shifts and the subsequent side effects such as water losses is played by temperature.

  14. Regionalization of land use impact models for life cycle assessment: Recommendations for their use on the global scale and their applicability to Brazil

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pavan, Ana Laura Raymundo, E-mail: laurarpavan@gmail.com [Center for Water Resource and Environmental Studies, São Carlos School of Engineering, University of São Paulo, Av. Trabalhador São-Carlense 400, São Carlos 13566-590, SP (Brazil); Ometto, Aldo Roberto [Center for Water Resource and Environmental Studies, São Carlos School of Engineering, University of São Paulo, Av. Trabalhador São-Carlense 400, São Carlos 13566-590, SP (Brazil); Department of Production Engineering, São Carlos School of Engineering, University of São Paulo, Av. Trabalhador São-Carlense 400, São Carlos 13566-590, SP (Brazil)

    2016-09-15

    Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is the main technique for evaluate the environmental impacts of product life cycles. A major challenge in the field of LCA is spatial and temporal differentiation in Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) methods, especially impacts resulting from land occupation and land transformation. Land use characterization modeling has advanced considerably over the last two decades and many approaches have recently included crucial aspects such as geographic differentiation. Nevertheless, characterization models have so far not been systematically reviewed and evaluated to determine their applicability to South America. Given that Brazil is the largest country in South America, this paper analyzes the main international characterization models currently available in the literature, with a view to recommending regionalized models applicable on a global scale for land use life cycle impact assessments, and discusses their feasibility for regionalized assessment in Brazil. The analytical methodology involves classification based on the following criteria: midpoint/endpoint approach, scope of application, area of data collection, biogeographical differentiation, definition of recovery time and reference situation; followed by an evaluation of thirteen scientific robustness and environmental relevance subcriteria. The results of the scope of application are distributed among 25% of the models developed for the European context, and 50% have a global scope. There is no consensus in the literature about the definition of parameters such biogeographical differentiation and reference situation, and our review indicates that 35% of the models use ecoregion division while 40% use the concept of potential natural vegetation. Four characterization models show high scores in terms of scientific robustness and environmental relevance. These models are recommended for application in land use life cycle impact assessments, and also to serve as references for the

  15. Cumulative Impact Assessment: Approaching Environmental Capacity in Development Area Using Environmental Impact Assessment Information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cho, N.; Lee, M. J.; Maeng, J. H.

    2017-12-01

    Environmental impact assessment estimates the impact of development as a business unit and establishes mitigation plan. If the development is done, its economic effects can spread to the nearby areas. So that various developments can be distributed at different time intervals. The impact of the new developments can be combined with existing environmental impacts and can have a larger impact. That is, Cumulative impact assessment is needed to consider the environmental capacity of the Nearby area. Cumulative impact assessments require policy tools such as environmental impact assessment information and cumulative impact estimation models. In Korea, environmental information (water quality, air quality, etc.) of the development site is measured for environmental impact assessment and monitored for a certain period (generally 5 years) after the project. In addition, by constructing the environmental information as a spatial database, it is possible to express the environmental impact on a regional basis spatially and to intuitively use it for development site selection. Utilizing a composite model of environmental impact assessment information and Remote Sensing data for cumulative impact estimation, That can be used as a policy decision support tool that provides quantitative information for development area management, such as time series effect and sprawl phenomenon.

  16. Implementation of a module for risk of ozone impacts assessment to vegetation in the Integrated Assessment Modelling system for the Iberian Peninsula. Evaluation for wheat and Holm oak

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andrés, Juan Manuel de; Borge, Rafael; Paz, David de la; Lumbreras, Julio; Rodríguez, Encarnación

    2012-01-01

    A module to estimate risks of ozone damage to vegetation has been implemented in the Integrated Assessment Modelling system for the Iberian Peninsula. It was applied to compute three different indexes for wheat and Holm oak; daylight AOT40 (cumulative ozone concentration over 40 ppb), cumulative ozone exposure index according to the Directive 2008/50/EC (AOT40-D) and POD Y (Phytotoxic Ozone Dose over a given threshold of Y nmol m −2 s −1 ). The use of these indexes led to remarkable differences in spatial patterns of relative ozone risks on vegetation. Ozone critical levels were exceeded in most of the modelling domain and soil moisture content was found to have a significant impact on the results. According to the outputs of the model, daylight AOT40 constitutes a more conservative index than the AOT40-D. Additionally, flux-based estimations indicate high risk areas in Portugal for both wheat and Holm oak that are not identified by AOT-based methods. - Highlights: ► A modelling system to estimate the risk of ozone in the Iberian Peninsula is presented. ► Ozone exposure- and flux-based approaches lead to rather different conclusions. ► Available ozone critical levels were exceeded in most locations where wheat is present. ► Soil moisture content has a significant impact on the flux-based results in some areas. - Flux-based indexes are needed to provide an effective protection of the vegetation in the Iberian Peninsula; currently, available critical levels for wheat are widely exceeded.

  17. Privacy Impact Assessment (PIA) Repository

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Veterans Affairs — This repository contains Privacy Impact Assessments (PIA) that have been vetted/approved. Section 208 of the Electronic Government Act of 2002 (E-Gov Act) requires...

  18. Using an ensemble of regional climate models to assess climate change impacts on water scarcity in European river basins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gampe, David; Nikulin, Grigory; Ludwig, Ralf

    2016-12-15

    Climate change will likely increase pressure on the water balances of Mediterranean basins due to decreasing precipitation and rising temperatures. To overcome the issue of data scarcity the hydrological relevant variables total runoff, surface evaporation, precipitation and air temperature are taken from climate model simulations. The ensemble applied in this study consists of 22 simulations, derived from different combinations of four General Circulation Models (GCMs) forcing different Regional Climate Models (RCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) at ~12km horizontal resolution provided through the EURO-CORDEX initiative. Four river basins (Adige, Ebro, Evrotas and Sava) are selected and climate change signals for the future period 2035-2065 as compared to the reference period 1981-2010 are investigated. Decreased runoff and evaporation indicate increased water scarcity over the Ebro and the Evrotas, as well as the southern parts of the Adige and the Sava, resulting from a temperature increase of 1-3° and precipitation decrease of up to 30%. Most severe changes are projected for the summer months indicating further pressure on the river basins already at least partly characterized by flow intermittency. The widely used Falkenmark indicator is presented and confirms this tendency and shows the necessity for spatially distributed analysis and high resolution projections. Related uncertainties are addressed by the means of a variance decomposition and model agreement to determine the robustness of the projections. The study highlights the importance of high resolution climate projections and represents a feasible approach to assess climate impacts on water scarcity also in regions that suffer from data scarcity. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  19. Assessing the economic impact of paternal involvement: a comparison of the generalized linear model versus decision analysis trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salihu, Hamisu M; Salemi, Jason L; Nash, Michelle C; Chandler, Kristen; Mbah, Alfred K; Alio, Amina P

    2014-08-01

    Lack of paternal involvement has been shown to be associated with adverse pregnancy outcomes, including infant morbidity and mortality, but the impact on health care costs is unknown. Various methodological approaches have been used in cost minimization and cost effectiveness analyses and it remains unclear how cost estimates vary according to the analytic strategy adopted. We illustrate a methodological comparison of decision analysis modeling and generalized linear modeling (GLM) techniques using a case study that assesses the cost-effectiveness of potential father involvement interventions. We conducted a 12-year retrospective cohort study using a statewide enhanced maternal-infant database that contains both clinical and nonclinical information. A missing name for the father on the infant's birth certificate was used as a proxy for lack of paternal involvement, the main exposure of this study. Using decision analysis modeling and GLM, we compared all infant inpatient hospitalization costs over the first year of life. Costs were calculated from hospital charges using department-level cost-to-charge ratios and were adjusted for inflation. In our cohort of 2,243,891 infants, 9.2% had a father uninvolved during pregnancy. Lack of paternal involvement was associated with higher rates of preterm birth, small-for-gestational age, and infant morbidity and mortality. Both analytic approaches estimate significantly higher per-infant costs for father uninvolved pregnancies (decision analysis model: $1,827, GLM: $1,139). This paper provides sufficient evidence that healthcare costs could be significantly reduced through enhanced father involvement during pregnancy, and buttresses the call for a national program to involve fathers in antenatal care.

  20. Methodologies of environmental impact assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schroll, H.

    1994-01-01

    This article gives a brief introduction covering the objectives of environmental impact assessment (EIA) and sustainable development, before going on to describe the screening procedure to define the environmental and socio-economic impacts of projects. The EIA procedure outlined encompasses a description of the project, examination of all environmental effects (scoping), identification of existing and predicted environmental conditions and impacts, alternative measures and mitigating measures, co-ordination, with environmental regulations, public participation, and monitoring and approval of the EIA. (UK)

  1. Recommendations for Life Cycle Impact Assessment in the European context - based on existing environmental impact assessment models and factors (International Reference Life Cycle Data System - ILCD handbook)

    OpenAIRE

    HAUSCHILD Michael; GOEDKOOP Mark; GUINEE Jerome; HEIJUNGS Reinout; HUIJBREGTS Mark; JOLLIET Olivier; MARGNI Manuele; DE SCHRYVER An

    2010-01-01

    To achieve more sustainable production and consumption patterns, we must consider the environmental implications of the whole supply-chain of products, both goods and services, their use, and waste management, i.e. their entire life cycle from ¿cradle to grave¿. In the Communication on Integrated Product Policy (IPP), (EC, 2003), the European Commission committed to produce a handbook on best practice in Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). The Sustainable Consumption and Production (SCP) Action ...

  2. Environmental impact assessment screening tool

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-05-01

    An environmental assessment and impact planning software, SCREENER, was tested at a pilot project at the Cameco site (Port Hope). SCREENER was used to screen the impacts of a new construction project in accordance with the process and reporting requirements laid out in the Canadian Environmental Assessment Act. The software test concentrated on the activities that are directly involved with the structure construction and site preparation activities. In addition, a two and one half day training course was given to three AECB staff using the test case as a hands on example. The conclusion of this project is that an automated tool such as SCREENER (or Calyx, the new generation of environmental assessment tools from ESSA Software Ltd.), will help the AECB to standardize the approach to environmental assessment, assist in project planning, and save resources in the screening process. The new approach could allow to allocate AECB limited resources to the detailed assessments required for maximum impact activities. 2 figs. 7 refs.

  3. Environmental impact assessment screening tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-05-01

    An environmental assessment and impact planning software, SCREENER, was tested at a pilot project at the Cameco site (Port Hope). SCREENER was used to screen the impacts of a new construction project in accordance with the process and reporting requirements laid out in the Canadian Environmental Assessment Act. The software test concentrated on the activities that are directly involved with the structure construction and site preparation activities. In addition, a two and one half day training course was given to three AECB staff using the test case as a hands on example. The conclusion of this project is that an automated tool such as SCREENER (or Calyx, the new generation of environmental assessment tools from ESSA Software Ltd.), will help the AECB to standardize the approach to environmental assessment, assist in project planning, and save resources in the screening process. The new approach could allow to allocate AECB limited resources to the detailed assessments required for maximum impact activities

  4. Assessing the impact on chronic disease of incorporating the societal cost of greenhouse gases into the price of food: an econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briggs, Adam D M; Kehlbacher, Ariane; Tiffin, Richard; Garnett, Tara; Rayner, Mike; Scarborough, Peter

    2013-10-22

    To model the impact on chronic disease of a tax on UK food and drink that internalises the wider costs to society of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and to estimate the potential revenue. An econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study. The UK. The UK adult population. Two tax scenarios are modelled: (A) a tax of £2.72/tonne carbon dioxide equivalents (tCO2e)/100 g product applied to all food and drink groups with above average GHG emissions. (B) As with scenario (A) but food groups with emissions below average are subsidised to create a tax neutral scenario. Primary outcomes are change in UK population mortality from chronic diseases following the implementation of each taxation strategy, the change in the UK GHG emissions and the predicted revenue. Secondary outcomes are the changes to the micronutrient composition of the UK diet. Scenario (A) results in 7770 (95% credible intervals 7150 to 8390) deaths averted and a reduction in GHG emissions of 18 683 (14 665to 22 889) ktCO2e/year. Estimated annual revenue is £2.02 (£1.98 to £2.06) billion. Scenario (B) results in 2685 (1966 to 3402) extra deaths and a reduction in GHG emissions of 15 228 (11 245to 19 492) ktCO2e/year. Incorporating the societal cost of GHG into the price of foods could save 7770 lives in the UK each year, reduce food-related GHG emissions and generate substantial tax revenue. The revenue neutral scenario (B) demonstrates that sustainability and health goals are not always aligned. Future work should focus on investigating the health impact by population subgroup and on designing fiscal strategies to promote both sustainable and healthy diets.

  5. Modeling the impact of climate change in Germany with biosphere models for long-term safety assessment of nuclear waste repositories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staudt, C; Semiochkina, N; Kaiser, J C; Pröhl, G

    2013-01-01

    Biosphere models are used to evaluate the exposure of populations to radionuclides from a deep geological repository. Since the time frame for assessments of long-time disposal safety is 1 million years, potential future climate changes need to be accounted for. Potential future climate conditions were defined for northern Germany according to model results from the BIOCLIM project. Nine present day reference climate regions were defined to cover those future climate conditions. A biosphere model was developed according to the BIOMASS methodology of the IAEA and model parameters were adjusted to the conditions at the reference climate regions. The model includes exposure pathways common to those reference climate regions in a stylized biosphere and relevant to the exposure of a hypothetical self-sustaining population at the site of potential radionuclide contamination from a deep geological repository. The end points of the model are Biosphere Dose Conversion factors (BDCF) for a range of radionuclides and scenarios normalized for a constant radionuclide concentration in near-surface groundwater. Model results suggest an increased exposure of in dry climate regions with a high impact of drinking water consumption rates and the amount of irrigation water used for agriculture. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. The influence of model spatial resolution on simulated ozone and fine particulate matter for Europe: implications for health impact assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fenech, Sara; Doherty, Ruth M.; Heaviside, Clare; Vardoulakis, Sotiris; Macintyre, Helen L.; O'Connor, Fiona M.

    2018-04-01

    simulated at the coarse resolution compared to the finer resolution. Annual-average PM2.5 concentrations are higher across most of northern and eastern Europe but lower over parts of southwest Europe at the coarse compared to the finer resolution. Across Europe, differences in the AF associated with long-term exposure to population-weighted MDA8 O3 range between -0.9 and +2.6 % (largest positive differences in southern Europe), while differences in the AF associated with long-term exposure to population-weighted annual mean PM2.5 range from -4.7 to +2.8 % (largest positive differences in eastern Europe) of the total mortality. Therefore this study, with its unique focus on Europe, demonstrates that health impact assessments calculated using modelled pollutant concentrations, are sensitive to a change in model resolution by up to ˜ ±5 % of the total mortality across Europe.

  7. Managing uncertainty, ambiguity and ignorance in impact assessment by embedding evolutionary resilience, participatory modelling and adaptive management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bond, Alan; Morrison-Saunders, Angus; Gunn, Jill A E; Pope, Jenny; Retief, Francois

    2015-03-15

    In the context of continuing uncertainty, ambiguity and ignorance in impact assessment (IA) prediction, the case is made that existing IA processes are based on false 'normal' assumptions that science can solve problems and transfer knowledge into policy. Instead, a 'post-normal science' approach is needed that acknowledges the limits of current levels of scientific understanding. We argue that this can be achieved through embedding evolutionary resilience into IA; using participatory workshops; and emphasising adaptive management. The goal is an IA process capable of informing policy choices in the face of uncertain influences acting on socio-ecological systems. We propose a specific set of process steps to operationalise this post-normal science approach which draws on work undertaken by the Resilience Alliance. This process differs significantly from current models of IA, as it has a far greater focus on avoidance of, or adaptation to (through incorporating adaptive management subsequent to decisions), unwanted future scenarios rather than a focus on the identification of the implications of a single preferred vision. Implementing such a process would represent a culture change in IA practice as a lack of knowledge is assumed and explicit, and forms the basis of future planning activity, rather than being ignored. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Accessibility assessment of Houston's roadway network during Harvey through integration of observed flood impacts and hydrologic modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gidaris, I.; Gori, A.; Panakkal, P.; Padgett, J.; Bedient, P. B.

    2017-12-01

    The record-breaking rainfall produced over the Houston region by Hurricane Harvey resulted in catastrophic and unprecedented impacts on the region's infrastructure. Notably, Houston's transportation network was crippled, with almost every major highway flooded during the five-day event. Entire neighborhoods and subdivisions were inundated, rendering them completely inaccessible to rescue crews and emergency services. Harvey has tragically highlighted the vulnerability of major thoroughfares, as well as neighborhood roads, to severe inundation during extreme precipitation events. Furthermore, it has emphasized the need for detailed accessibility characterization of road networks under extreme event scenarios in order to determine which areas of the city are most vulnerable. This analysis assesses and tracks the accessibility of Houston's major highways during Harvey's evolution by utilizing road flood/closure data from the Texas DOT. In the absence of flooded/closure data for local roads, a hybrid approach is adopted that utilizes a physics-based hydrologic model to produce high-resolution inundation estimates for selected urban watersheds in the Houston area. In particular, hydrologic output in the form of inundation depths is used to estimate the operability of local roads. Ultimately, integration of hydrologic-based estimation of road conditions with observed data from DOT supports a network accessibility analysis of selected urban neighborhoods. This accessibility analysis can identify operable routes for emergency response (rescue crews, medical services, etc.) during the storm event.

  9. Assessing the impacts of sustainable agricultural practices for water quality improvements in the Vouga catchment (Portugal) using the SWAT model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rocha, João; Roebeling, Peter; Rial-Rivas, María Ermitas

    2015-12-01

    The extensive use of fertilizers has become one of the most challenging environmental issues in agricultural catchment areas. In order to reduce the negative impacts from agricultural activities and to accomplish the objectives of the European Water Framework Directive we must consider the implementation of sustainable agricultural practices. In this study, we assess sustainable agricultural practices based on reductions in N-fertilizer application rates (from 100% to 0%) and N-application methods (single, split and slow-release) across key agricultural land use classes in the Vouga catchment, Portugal. The SWAT model was used to relate sustainable agricultural practices, agricultural yields and N-NO3 water pollution deliveries. Results show that crop yields as well as N-NO3 exportation rates decrease with reductions in N-application rates and single N-application methods lead to lower crop yields and higher N-NO3 exportation rates as compared to split and slow-release N-application methods. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Assessment of Energy Removal Impacts on Physical Systems: Hydrodynamic Model Domain Expansion and Refinement, and Online Dissemination of Model Results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Zhaoqing; Khangaonkar, Tarang; Wang, Taiping

    2010-01-01

    In this report we describe the (1) the expansion of the PNNL hydrodynamic model domain to include the continental shelf along the coasts of Washington, Oregon, and Vancouver Island; and (2) the approach and progress in developing the online/Internet disseminations of model results and outreach efforts in support of the Puget Sound Operational Forecast System (PS-OPF). Submittal of this report completes the work on Task 2.1.2, Effects of Physical Systems, Subtask 2.1.2.1, Hydrodynamics, for fiscal year 2010 of the Environmental Effects of Marine and Hydrokinetic Energy project.

  11. Remote Sensing and Spatial Growth Modeling Coupled With Air Quality Modeling to Assess the Impact of Atlanta, Georgia on the Local and Regional Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quattrochi, D. A.; Estes, M. G.; Crosson, W. L.; Johnson, H.; Khan, M.

    2006-05-01

    The growth of cities, both in population and areal extent, appears as an inexorable process. Urbanization continues at a rapid rate, and it is estimated that by the year 2025, 60 percent of the world's population will live in cities. Urban expansion has profound impacts on a host of biophysical, environmental, and atmospheric processes within an urban ecosystems perspective. A reduction in air quality over cities is a major result of these impacts. Because of its complexity, the urban landscape is not adequately captured in air quality models such as the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model that is used to assess whether urban areas are in attainment of EPA air quality standards, primarily for ground level ozone. This inadequacy of the CMAQ model to sufficiently respond to the heterogeneous nature of the urban landscape can impact how well the model predicts ozone levels over metropolitan areas and ultimately, whether cities exceed EPA ozone air quality standards. We are exploring the utility of high-resolution remote sensing data and urban spatial growth modeling (SGM) projections as improved inputs to a meteorological/air quality modeling system focusing on the Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan area as a case study. These growth projections include "business as usual" and "smart growth" scenarios out to 2030. The growth projections illustrate the effects of employing urban heat island mitigation strategies, such as increasing tree canopy and albedo across the Atlanta metro area, which in turn, are used to model how air temperature can potentially be moderated as impacts on elevating ground-level ozone, as opposed to not utilizing heat island mitigation strategies. The National Land Cover Dataset at 30m resolution is being used as the land use/land cover input and aggregated to the 4km scale for the MM5 mesoscale meteorological model and the CMAQ modeling schemes. Use of these data has been found to better characterize low density/suburban development as

  12. Spatial Growth Modeling and High Resolution Remote Sensing Data Coupled with Air Quality Modeling to Assess the Impact of Atlanta, Georgia on the Local and Regional Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.; Crosson, William; Johnson, Hoyt; Khan, Maudood

    2006-01-01

    The growth of cities, both in population and areal extent, appears as an inexorable process. Urbanization continues at a rapid rate, and it is estimated that by the year 2025, 60 percent of the world s population will live in cities. Urban expansion has profound impacts on a host of biophysical, environmental, and atmospheric processes within an urban ecosystems perspective. A reduction in air quality over cities is a major result of these impacts. Because of its complexity, the urban landscape is not adequately captured in air quality models such as the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model that is used to assess whether urban areas are in attainment of EPA air quality standards, primarily for ground level ozone. This inadequacy of the CMAQ model to sufficiently respond to the heterogeneous nature of the urban landscape can impact how well the model predicts ozone levels over metropolitan areas and ultimately, whether cities exceed EPA ozone air quality standards. We are exploring the utility of high-resolution remote sensing data and urban spatial growth modeling (SGM) projections as improved inputs to a meteorological/air quality modeling system focusing on the Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan area as a case study. These growth projections include business as usual and smart growth scenarios out to 2030. The growth projections illustrate the effects of employing urban heat island mitigation strategies, such as increasing tree canopy and albedo across the Atlanta metro area, which in turn, are used to model how air temperature can potentially be moderated as impacts on elevating ground-level ozone, as opposed to not utilizing heat island mitigation strategies. The National Land Cover Dataset at 30m resolution is being used as the land use/land cover input and aggregated to the 4km scale for the MM5 mesoscale meteorological model and the CMAQ modeling schemes. Use of these data has been found to better characterize low density/suburban development as compared

  13. Environmental impact assessment of fish farm hatcheries ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Environmental impact assessment of fish farm hatcheries management in lower ... Environmental impact assessments were taken to determine the causes of ... Of significance of impact assessment were activities like air, traffic, noise, had ...

  14. Assessment of the phenology impact on SVAT modelling through a crop growth model over a Mediterranean crop site : Consequences on the water balance under climate change conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moulin, S.; Garrigues, S.; Olioso, A.; Ruget, F.; Desfonds, V.; Bertrand, N.; Lecharpentier, P.; Ripoche, D.; Launay, M.; Brisson, N.

    2012-04-01

    project, Brisson et al, 2010), we show that the range of phenology simulated by ISBA is much wider than the one simulated by STICS. The large variability obtained with ISBA is not realistic and does not match with the genetic characteristics of the studied crops. In a second step, STICS and ISBA-a-gs are run over the same field of durum wheat cultivated during 5 years on a well instrumented site (Avignon crop observatory site). Their simulations are compared, in terms of LAI (driven by phenology), biomass (crop production), and evapotranspiration (water balance). The last step consists in forcing the SVAT model with the LAI simulated by STICS and assess the impact on the water and energy balance simulation accuracy.

  15. Introducing Life Cycle Impact Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hauschild, Michael Zwicky; Huijbregts, Mark AJ

    2015-01-01

    This chapter serves as an introduction to the presentation of the many aspects of life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) in this volume of the book series ‘LCA Compendium’. It starts with a brief historical overview of the development of life cycle impact assessment driven by numerous national LCIA...... methodology projects and presents the international scientific discussions and methodological consensus attempts in consecutive working groups under the auspices of the Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC) as well as the UNEP/ SETAC Life Cycle Initiative, and the (almost) parallel...

  16. Health impact assessment in Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, Eunjeong; Lee, Youngsoo; Harris, Patrick; Koh, Kwangwook; Kim, Keonyeop

    2011-01-01

    Recently, Health Impact Assessment has gained great attention in Korea. First, the Ministry of Environment introduced HIA within existing Environment Impact Assessment. Second, the Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs began an HIA program in 2008 in alliance with Healthy Cities. In this short report, these two different efforts are introduced and their opportunities and challenges discussed. We believe these two approaches complement each other and both need to be strengthened. We also believe that both can contribute to the development of health in policy and project development and ultimately to improvements in the Korean population's health.

  17. Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources and Colorado Agriculture Using an Equilibrium Displacement Mathematical Programming Model

    OpenAIRE

    Fathelrahman, Eihab; Davies, Amalia; Davies, Stephen; Pritchett, James

    2014-01-01

    This research models selected impacts of climate change on Colorado agriculture several decades in the future, using an Economic Displacement Mathematical Programming model. The agricultural economy in Colorado is dominated by livestock, which accounts for 67% of total receipts. Crops, including feed grains and forages, account for the remainder. Most agriculture is based on irrigated production, which depends on both groundwater, especially from the Ogallala aquifer, and surface water that c...

  18. Model-based Impact Assessment of an Integrated Water Management Strategy on Ecosystem Services relevant to Food Security in Namibia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luetkemeier, R.; Liehr, S.

    2012-04-01

    North-central Namibia is characterized by seasonal alterations of drought and heavy rainfall, mostly saline groundwater resources and a lack of perennial rivers. Water scarcity poses a great challenge for freshwater supply, harvest and food security against the background of high population growth and climate change. CuveWaters project aims at poverty reduction and livelihood improvement on a long term basis by introducing a multi-resource-mix as part of an integrated water resources management (IWRM) approach. Herein, creating water buffers by rainwater harvesting (RWH) and subsurface water storage as well as reuse of treated wastewater facilitates micro-scale gardening activities. This link constitutes a major component of a sustainable adaptation strategy by contributing to the conservation and improvement of basic food and freshwater resources in order to reduce drought vulnerability. This paper presents main findings of an impact assessment carried out on the effect of integrated water resources management on ecosystem services (ESS) relevant to food security within the framework of CuveWaters project. North-central Namibia is perceived as a social-ecological system characterized by a strong mutual dependence between natural environment and anthropogenic system. This fundamental reliance on natural resources highlights the key role of ESS in semi-arid environments to sustain human livelihoods. Among other services, food provision was chosen for quantification as one of the most fundamental ESS in north-central Namibia. Different nutritional values were utilized as indicators to adopt a demand-supply approach (Ecosystem Service Profile) to illustrate the ability of the ecosystem to meet people's nutritional requirements. Calculations have been conducted using both Bayesian networks to incorporate uncertainty introduced by the variability of monthly precipitation and the application of plant specific water production functions. Results show that improving the

  19. Application of STORMTOOLS's simplified flood inundation model with sea level rise to assess impacts to RI coastal areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spaulding, M. L.

    2015-12-01

    The vision for STORMTOOLS is to provide access to a suite of coastal planning tools (numerical models et al), available as a web service, that allows wide spread accessibly and applicability at high resolution for user selected coastal areas of interest. The first product developed under this framework were flood inundation maps, with and without sea level rise, for varying return periods for RI coastal waters. The flood mapping methodology is based on using the water level vs return periods at a primary NOAA water level gauging station and then spatially scaling the values, based on the predictions of high resolution, storm and wave simulations performed by Army Corp of Engineers, North Atlantic Comprehensive Coastal Study (NACCS) for tropical and extratropical storms on an unstructured grid, to estimate inundation levels for varying return periods. The scaling for the RI application used Newport, RI water levels as the reference point. Predictions are provided for once in 25, 50, and 100 yr return periods (at the upper 95% confidence level), with sea level rises of 1, 2, 3, and 5 ft. Simulations have also been performed for historical hurricane events including 1938, Carol (1954), Bob (1991), and Sandy (2012) and nuisance flooding events with return periods of 1, 3, 5, and 10 yr. Access to the flooding maps is via a web based, map viewer that seamlessly covers all coastal waters of the state at one meter resolution. The GIS structure of the map viewer allows overlays of additional relevant data sets (roads and highways, wastewater treatment facilities, schools, hospitals, emergency evacuation routes, etc.) as desired by the user. The simplified flooding maps are publically available and are now being implemented for state and community resilience planning and vulnerability assessment activities in response to climate change impacts.

  20. The Development of Models for Assessment of the Geomagnetically Induced Currents Impact on Electric Power Grids during Geomagnetic Storms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    VAKHNINA, V. V.

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available A model and an algorithm for the calculation of the functioning of an electric power grid of arbitrary configuration and complexity during geomagnetic storms were developed. The calculations were performed in the MATLAB mathematical package and the Simulink environment. The binding of objects to geographical coordinates is realized in the model, which enables to determine the matrix of potentials of geoelectric fields in nodal points. In order to define the instantaneous magnetizing currents, the power transformers are designed on the basis of the T-shaped equivalent circuit with a nonlinear mutual inductance of magnetization branch. Calculation of RMS values of active, reactive and total power values in all the elements is done with regard to the impact of harmonic components of the current and voltage. The results of modeling of the impact of geomagnetic storms of various intensity with the west-east direction of the geoelectric field vector for Samara region electric power grid are given.

  1. Impact assessment in EU lawmaking

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meuwese, Anne Claartje Margreet

    2008-01-01

    The European Commission introduced impact assessment (IA) in 2002 following recommendations from the Mandelkern group on Better Regulation. The basic rationale of IA is that proposals must be prepared on the basis of an analysis of whether regulatory intervention is needed and whether it is

  2. Environmental Impact Assessment in Antarctica

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bastmeijer, C.J.; Roura, R.; Bastmeijer, K.; Koivurova, T.

    2008-01-01

    This publication focuses on the instrument of Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) that has been developed within the Antarctic Treaty System (ATS) as one of the tools to promote environmental protection. The states involved in the ATS already recognized the importance of this instrument in 1975

  3. Impact assessment of commodity standards

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ruben, Ruerd

    2017-01-01

    Voluntary commodity standards are widely used to enhance the performance of tropical agro-food chains and to support the welfare and sustainability of smallholder farmers. Different methods and approaches are used to assess the effectiveness and impact of these certification schemes at

  4. Road ecology in environmental impact assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karlson, Mårten; Mörtberg, Ulla; Balfors, Berit

    2014-01-01

    Transport infrastructure has a wide array of effects on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, and road and railway networks are increasingly being associated with a loss of biodiversity worldwide. Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) are two legal frameworks that concern physical planning, with the potential to identify, predict, mitigate and/or compensate transport infrastructure effects with negative impacts on biodiversity. The aim of this study was to review the treatment of ecological impacts in environmental assessment of transport infrastructure plans and projects. A literature review on the topic of EIA, SEA, biodiversity and transport infrastructure was conducted, and 17 problem categories on the treatment of biodiversity were formulated by means of a content analysis. A review of environmental impact statements and environmental reports (EIS/ER) produced between 2005 and 2013 in Sweden and the UK was then conducted using the list of problems as a checklist. The results show that the treatment of ecological impacts has improved substantially over the years, but that some impacts remain problematic; the treatment of fragmentation, the absence of quantitative analysis and that the impact assessment study area was in general delimited without consideration for the scales of ecological processes. Actions to improve the treatment of ecological impacts could include improved guidelines for spatial and temporal delimitation, and the establishment of a quantitative framework including tools, methods and threshold values. Additionally, capacity building and further method development of EIA and SEA friendly spatial ecological models can aid in clarifying the costs as well as the benefits in development/biodiversity tradeoffs. - Highlights: • The treatment of ecological impacts in EIA and SEA has improved. • Quantitative methods for ecological impact assessment were rarely used • Fragmentation effects were recognized

  5. Road ecology in environmental impact assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karlson, Mårten, E-mail: mkarlso@kth.se; Mörtberg, Ulla, E-mail: mortberg@kth.se; Balfors, Berit, E-mail: balfors@kth.se

    2014-09-15

    Transport infrastructure has a wide array of effects on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, and road and railway networks are increasingly being associated with a loss of biodiversity worldwide. Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) are two legal frameworks that concern physical planning, with the potential to identify, predict, mitigate and/or compensate transport infrastructure effects with negative impacts on biodiversity. The aim of this study was to review the treatment of ecological impacts in environmental assessment of transport infrastructure plans and projects. A literature review on the topic of EIA, SEA, biodiversity and transport infrastructure was conducted, and 17 problem categories on the treatment of biodiversity were formulated by means of a content analysis. A review of environmental impact statements and environmental reports (EIS/ER) produced between 2005 and 2013 in Sweden and the UK was then conducted using the list of problems as a checklist. The results show that the treatment of ecological impacts has improved substantially over the years, but that some impacts remain problematic; the treatment of fragmentation, the absence of quantitative analysis and that the impact assessment study area was in general delimited without consideration for the scales of ecological processes. Actions to improve the treatment of ecological impacts could include improved guidelines for spatial and temporal delimitation, and the establishment of a quantitative framework including tools, methods and threshold values. Additionally, capacity building and further method development of EIA and SEA friendly spatial ecological models can aid in clarifying the costs as well as the benefits in development/biodiversity tradeoffs. - Highlights: • The treatment of ecological impacts in EIA and SEA has improved. • Quantitative methods for ecological impact assessment were rarely used • Fragmentation effects were recognized

  6. Use of dispersion modelling for Environmental Impact Assessment of biological air pollution from composting: Progress, problems and prospects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douglas, P; Hayes, E T; Williams, W B; Tyrrel, S F; Kinnersley, R P; Walsh, K; O'Driscoll, M; Longhurst, P J; Pollard, S J T; Drew, G H

    2017-12-01

    With the increase in composting asa sustainable waste management option, biological air pollution (bioaerosols) from composting facilities have become a cause of increasing concern due to their potential health impacts. Estimating community exposure to bioaerosols is problematic due to limitations in current monitoring methods. Atmospheric dispersion modelling can be used to estimate exposure concentrations, however several issues arise from the lack of appropriate bioaerosol data to use as inputs into models, and the complexity of the emission sources at composting facilities. This paper analyses current progress in using dispersion models for bioaerosols, examines the remaining problems and provides recommendations for future prospects in this area. A key finding is the urgent need for guidance for model users to ensure consistent bioaerosol modelling practices. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  7. Development of an integrated generic model for multi-scale assessment of the impacts of agro-ecosystems on major ecosystem services in West Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belem, Mahamadou; Saqalli, Mehdi

    2017-11-01

    This paper presents an integrated model assessing the impacts of climate change, agro-ecosystem and demographic transition patterns on major ecosystem services in West-Africa along a partial overview of economic aspects (poverty reduction, food self-sufficiency and income generation). The model is based on an agent-based model associated with a soil model and multi-scale spatial model. The resulting Model for West-Africa Agro-Ecosystem Integrated Assessment (MOWASIA) is ecologically generic, meaning it is designed for all sudano-sahelian environments but may then be used as an experimentation facility for testing different scenarios combining ecological and socioeconomic dimensions. A case study in Burkina Faso is examined to assess the environmental and economic performances of semi-continuous and continuous farming systems. Results show that the semi-continuous system using organic fertilizer and fallowing practices contribute better to environment preservation and food security than the more economically performant continuous system. In addition, this study showed that farmers heterogeneity could play an important role in agricultural policies planning and assessment. In addition, the results showed that MOWASIA is an effective tool for designing, analysing the impacts of agro-ecosystems. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  8. Errors and uncertainties introduced by a regional climate model in climate impact assessments: example of crop yield simulations in West Africa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramarohetra, Johanna; Pohl, Benjamin; Sultan, Benjamin

    2015-01-01

    The challenge of estimating the potential impacts of climate change has led to an increasing use of dynamical downscaling to produce fine spatial-scale climate projections for impact assessments. In this work, we analyze if and to what extent the bias in the simulated crop yield can be reduced by using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model to downscale ERA-Interim (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis) rainfall and radiation data. Then, we evaluate the uncertainties resulting from both the choice of the physical parameterizations of the WRF model and its internal variability. Impact assessments were performed at two sites in Sub-Saharan Africa and by using two crop models to simulate Niger pearl millet and Benin maize yields. We find that the use of the WRF model to downscale ERA-Interim climate data generally reduces the bias in the simulated crop yield, yet this reduction in bias strongly depends on the choices in the model setup. Among the physical parameterizations considered, we show that the choice of the land surface model (LSM) is of primary importance. When there is no coupling with a LSM, or when the LSM is too simplistic, the simulated precipitation and then the simulated yield are null, or respectively very low; therefore, coupling with a LSM is necessary. The convective scheme is the second most influential scheme for yield simulation, followed by the shortwave radiation scheme. The uncertainties related to the internal variability of the WRF model are also significant and reach up to 30% of the simulated yields. These results suggest that regional models need to be used more carefully in order to improve the reliability of impact assessments. (letter)

  9. Impact of whole-building hygrothermal modelling on the assessment of indoor climate in a library building

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Steeman, M.; Janssens, A. [Ghent University, Department of Architecture and Urban Planning, Jozef Plateaustraat 22, B-9000 Gent (Belgium); De Paepe, M. [Ghent University, Department of Flow, Heat and Combustion Mechanics, Sint-Pietersnieuwstraat 41, B-9000 Gent (Belgium)

    2010-07-15

    This paper focuses on the importance of accurately modelling the hygrothermal interaction between the building and its hygroscopic content for the assessment of the indoor climate. Libraries contain a large amount of stored books which require a stable relative humidity to guarantee their preservation. On the other hand, visitors and staff must be comfortable with the indoor climate. The indoor climate of a new library building is evaluated by means of measurements and simulations. Complaints of the staff are confirmed by measured data during the winter and summer of 2007-2008. For the evaluation of the indoor climate, a building simulation model is used in which the porous books are either described by a HAM model or by a simplified isothermal model. Calculations demonstrate that the HAM model predicts a more stable indoor climate regarding both temperature and relative humidity variations in comparison to the estimations by the simplified model. This is attributed to the ability of the HAM model to account for the effect of temperature variations on moisture storage. Moreover, by applying the HAM model, a good agreement with the measured indoor climate is found. As expected, a larger exposed book surface ameliorates the indoor climate because a more stable indoor relative humidity is obtained. Finally, the building simulation model is used to improve the indoor climate with respect to the preservation of valuable books. Results demonstrate that more stringent interventions on the air handling unit are expected when a simplified approach is used to model the hygroscopic books. (author)

  10. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

  11. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-01-01

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

  12. Regional analysis and environmental impact assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parzyck, D.C.; Brocksen, R.W.; Emanuel, W.R.

    1976-01-01

    This paper presents a number of techniques that can be used to assess environmental impacts on a regional scale. Regional methodologies have been developed which examine impacts upon aquatic and terrestrial biota in regions through consideration of changes in land use, land cover, air quality, water resource use, and water quality. Techniques used to assess long-range atmospheric transport, water resources, effects on sensitive forest and animal species, and impacts on man are presented in this paper, along with an optimization approach which serves to integrate the analytical techniques in an overall assessment framework. A brief review of the research approach and certain modeling techniques used within one regional studies program is provided. While it is not an all inclusive report on regional analyses, it does present an illustration of the types of analyses that can be performed on a regional scale

  13. Infrastructure Damage/Fragility Models and Data Quality Issues Associated with Department of Defense Climate Vulnerability and Impact Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-01-26

    Jeffrey Donnelly, Richard Moss,  Joseph Donoghue, Steve Kish, Jim Elsner, Robert Evans, David LaBranche, Justin LaRose, Adam  Parris,  Chris  Weaver...Garrow, L.,  Higgins , M., and Meyer, M. (2013). ”Impacts of Climate Change on Scour‐ Vulnerable Bridges: Assessment Based on HYRISK.” J. Infrastruct...Adam Parris  NOAA Regional Integrated Sciences and  Assessments Program  Y  Chris  Weaver  U.S. Global Change Research Program  Y    83    Name

  14. Assessing the impacts of climate change on winter crop production in Uruguay and Argentina using crop simulation models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baethgen, W.E. [International Fertilizer Development Center, Muscle Shoals, AL (United States); Magrin, G.O. [Inst. Nacional de Tecnologia Agropecuaria Castelar, Buenos Aires (Argentina). Inst. de Clima y Agua

    1995-12-31

    Enhanced greenhouse effect caused by the increase in atmospheric concentration of CO{sub 2} and other trace gases could lead to higher global surface temperature and altered hydrological cycles. Most possible climate change scenarios include higher atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations, higher temperatures, and changes in precipitation. Three global climate models (GCMs) were applied to generate climate change scenarios for the Pampas region in southern South America. The generated scenarios were then used with crop simulation models to study the possible impact of climate change on wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) production in the Pampas. The authors evaluated the impact of possible climate change scenarios on wheat and barley production in Uruguay for a wide range of soil and crop management strategies including planting dates, cultivar types, fertilizer management, and tillage practices. They also studied the impact of climate change on wheat production across two transects of the Pampas: north to south transect with decreasing temperature, and east to west transect with decreasing precipitation. Finally, sensitivity analyses were conducted for both, the Uruguayan site and the transects, by increasing daily maximum and minimum temperature by 0, 2, and 4 C, and changing the precipitation by {minus}20, 0, and +20%.

  15. Application of the HBV model for assessment of climate change impacts on the elements of hydrological cycle for the Struma River Basin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stanev, Krassimir

    2004-01-01

    The model used in this report is a version of the HBV model developed for the project Climate Change and Energy Production, a Nordic project aimed at evaluating the impacts of climate change on the water resources. It has a simple vegetation parametrization including interception, temperature based evapotranspiration. calculations, lake evaporation, lake routing, glacier mass balance simulation, special functions for climate change simulations etc. The HBV model, originally developed at the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute in the first half of the seventies (Bergstroem 1976) has gained widespread use for a large range of applications both in Scandinavia and beyond. It can be classified as a semi-distributed conceptual model. The version described in this report was developed for the Nordic project 'Climate change and Energy Production' (Saelthun 1996), as a synthesis of several versions used in the different Nordic countries. The main input variables are the average daily temperature, daily totals of the precipitation, the potential evapotranspiration and the daily discharges. The HBV model was applied for assessment of climate change impacts on the elements of hydrological cycle for the Struma river basin. The river Struma flows from North to South up to the Aegean Sea. Considerable part of the river basin is situated in northwest part of Bulgaria, heaving an area of more than 10 000 km 2 and average elevation about 900m asl (cross-section Marino pole). The period of 16 years (1973-1988), four precipitation and temperature stations were used for the model parameters evaluation. The achieved value of R 2 (Nash criterion) is 0.55. The climate change impact calculations (monthly values of temperatures change in o C and precipitation change in %) for two scenarios were used for the input data correction to the HBV model. The obtained results are promising and they show the potential possibility for the HBV model use to assess the climate change

  16. Can the combined use of an ensemble based modelling approach and the analysis of measured meteorological trends lead to increased confidence in climate change impact assessments?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gädeke, Anne; Koch, Hagen; Pohle, Ina; Grünewald, Uwe

    2014-05-01

    In anthropogenically heavily impacted river catchments, such as the Lusatian river catchments of Spree and Schwarze Elster (Germany), the robust assessment of possible impacts of climate change on the regional water resources is of high relevance for the development and implementation of suitable climate change adaptation strategies. Large uncertainties inherent in future climate projections may, however, reduce the willingness of regional stakeholder to develop and implement suitable adaptation strategies to climate change. This study provides an overview of different possibilities to consider uncertainties in climate change impact assessments by means of (1) an ensemble based modelling approach and (2) the incorporation of measured and simulated meteorological trends. The ensemble based modelling approach consists of the meteorological output of four climate downscaling approaches (DAs) (two dynamical and two statistical DAs (113 realisations in total)), which drive different model configurations of two conceptually different hydrological models (HBV-light and WaSiM-ETH). As study area serve three near natural subcatchments of the Spree and Schwarze Elster river catchments. The objective of incorporating measured meteorological trends into the analysis was twofold: measured trends can (i) serve as a mean to validate the results of the DAs and (ii) be regarded as harbinger for the future direction of change. Moreover, regional stakeholders seem to have more trust in measurements than in modelling results. In order to evaluate the nature of the trends, both gradual (Mann-Kendall test) and step changes (Pettitt test) are considered as well as both temporal and spatial correlations in the data. The results of the ensemble based modelling chain show that depending on the type (dynamical or statistical) of DA used, opposing trends in precipitation, actual evapotranspiration and discharge are simulated in the scenario period (2031-2060). While the statistical DAs

  17. Modeling number of bacteria per food unit in comparison to bacterial concentration in quantitative risk assessment: impact on risk estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pouillot, Régis; Chen, Yuhuan; Hoelzer, Karin

    2015-02-01

    When developing quantitative risk assessment models, a fundamental consideration for risk assessors is to decide whether to evaluate changes in bacterial levels in terms of concentrations or in terms of bacterial numbers. Although modeling bacteria in terms of integer numbers may be regarded as a more intuitive and rigorous choice, modeling bacterial concentrations is more popular as it is generally less mathematically complex. We tested three different modeling approaches in a simulation study. The first approach considered bacterial concentrations; the second considered the number of bacteria in contaminated units, and the third considered the expected number of bacteria in contaminated units. Simulation results indicate that modeling concentrations tends to overestimate risk compared to modeling the number of bacteria. A sensitivity analysis using a regression tree suggests that processes which include drastic scenarios consisting of combinations of large bacterial inactivation followed by large bacterial growth frequently lead to a >10-fold overestimation of the average risk when modeling concentrations as opposed to bacterial numbers. Alternatively, the approach of modeling the expected number of bacteria in positive units generates results similar to the second method and is easier to use, thus potentially representing a promising compromise. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  18. A study on the assessment of safety culture impacts on risk of nuclear power plants using common uncertainty source model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Yong Suk; Bang, Young Suk; Chung, Chang Hyun; Jeong, Ji Hwan

    2004-01-01

    Since International Safety Advisory Group (INSAG) introduced term 'safety culture', it has been widely recognized that safety culture has an important role in safety of nuclear power plants. Research on the safety culture can be divided in the following two parts. 1) Assessment of safety culture (by interview, questionnaire, etc.) 2) Assessment of link between safety culture and safety of nuclear power plants. There is a substantial body of literature that addresses the first part, but there is much less work that addresses the second part. To address the second part, most work focused on the development of model incorporating safety culture into Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA). One of the most advanced methodology in the area of incorporating safety culture quantitatively into PSA is System Dynamics (SD) model developed by Kwak et al. It can show interactions among various factors which affect employees' productivity and job quality. Also various situations in nuclear power plant can be simulated and time-dependent risk can be recalculated with this model. But this model does not consider minimal cut set (MCS) dependency and uncertainty of risk. Another well-known methodology is Work Process Analysis Model (WPAM) developed by Davoudian. It considers MCS dependency by modifying conditional probability values using SLI methodology. But we found that the modified conditional probability values in WPAM are somewhat artificial and have no sound basis. WPAM tend to overestimate conditional probability of hardware failure, because it uses SLI methodology which is normally used in Human Reliability Analysis (HRA). WPAM also does not consider uncertainty of risk. In this study, we proposed methodology to incorporate safety culture into PSA quantitatively that can deal with MCS dependency and uncertainty of risk by applying the Common Uncertainty Source (CUS) model developed by Zhang. CUS is uncertainty source that is common to basic events, and this can be physical

  19. Assessing Drought Impacts on Water Storage using GRACE Satellites and Regional Groundwater Modeling in the Central Valley of California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scanlon, B. R.; Zhang, Z.; Save, H.; Faunt, C. C.; Dettinger, M. D.

    2015-12-01

    Increasing concerns about drought impacts on water resources in California underscores the need to better understand effects of drought on water storage and coping strategies. Here we use a new GRACE mascons solution with high spatial resolution (1 degree) developed at the Univ. of Texas Center for Space Research (CSR) and output from the most recent regional groundwater model developed by the U.S. Geological Survey to evaluate changes in water storage in response to recent droughts. We also extend the analysis of drought impacts on water storage back to the 1980s using modeling and monitoring data. The drought has been intensifying since 2012 with almost 50% of the state and 100% of the Central Valley under exceptional drought in 2015. Total water storage from GRACE data declined sharply during the current drought, similar to the rate of depletion during the previous drought in 2007 - 2009. However, only 45% average recovery between the two droughts results in a much greater cumulative impact of both droughts. The CSR GRACE Mascons data offer unprecedented spatial resolution with no leakage to the oceans and no requirement for signal restoration. Snow and reservoir storage declines contribute to the total water storage depletion estimated by GRACE with the residuals attributed to groundwater storage. Rates of groundwater storage depletion are consistent with the results of regional groundwater modeling in the Central Valley. Traditional approaches to coping with these climate extremes has focused on surface water reservoir storage; however, increasing conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater and storing excess water from wet periods in depleted aquifers is increasing in the Central Valley.

  20. Assessment of cooling tower impact

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1986-01-01

    This guideline describes the state of the art of the meteorological impact of wet cooling towers that are about 80 m to 170 m high, and have a waste heat power in the range of 1000 MW and 2500 MW. The physical processes occurring in the lowest layer of the atmosphere and their impact in the dispersion of cooling tower emissions are represented. On the basis of these facts, the impact on weather or climate in the vicinity of a high wet cooling tower is estimated. Thereby the results of the latest investigations (observations, measurements, and modeling) on the different locations of plants as well as their different power and construction types are taken into consideration. (orig.) [de

  1. Assessing the impacts of climate change on natural resource systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frederick, K.D.; Rosenberg, N.J. [eds.

    1994-11-30

    This volume is a collection of papers addressing the theme of potential impacts of climatic change. Papers are entitled Integrated Assessments of the Impacts of Climatic Change on Natural Resources: An Introductory Editorial; Framework for Integrated Assessments of Global Warming Impacts; Modeling Land Use and Cover as Part of Global Environmental Change; Assessing Impacts of Climatic Change on Forests: The State of Biological Modeling; Integrating Climatic Change and Forests: Economic and Ecological Assessments; Environmental Change in Grasslands: Assessment using Models; Assessing the Socio-economic Impacts of Climatic Change on Grazinglands; Modeling the Effects of Climatic Change on Water Resources- A Review; Assessing the Socioeconomic Consequences of Climate Change on Water Resources; and Conclusions, Remaining Issues, and Next Steps.

  2. Three-dimensional modeling of HCFC-123 in the atmosphere: assessing its potential environmental impacts and rationale for continued use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wuebbles, Donald J; Patten, Kenneth O

    2009-05-01

    HCFC-123 (C2HCl2F3) is used in large refrigeration systems and as a fire suppression agent blend. Like other hydrochlorofluorocarbons, production and consumption of HCFC-123 is limited under the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer. The purpose of this study is to update the understanding of the current and projected impacts of HCFC-123 on stratospheric ozone and on climate and to discuss the potential environmental effects from continued use of this chemical for specific applications. For the first time, the Ozone Depletion Potential (ODP) of a HCFC is determined using a three-dimensional model (MOZART-3) of atmospheric physics and chemistry. All previous studies have relied on results from two-dimensional models. The derived HCFC-123 ODP of 0.0098 is smaller than previous values. Analysis of the projected uses and emissions of HCFC-123, assuming reasonable levels of projected growth and use in centrifugal chiller and fire suppressant applications, suggests an extremely small impact on the environment due to its short atmospheric lifetime, low ODP, low Global Warming Potential (GWP), and the small production and emission of its limited applications. The current contribution of HCFC-123 to stratospheric reactive chlorine is too small to be measurable.

  3. The use of cartographic modeling to assess the impacts of coastal flooding: a case study of Port Said Governorate, Egypt.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abou Samra, Rasha M

    2017-09-01

    Low-set coastal areas are expected to aggravate inundation on account of sea level rise (SLR). The present study is planned to appraise the impacts of coastal flooding in Port Said city, Egypt by using remote sensing, GIS, and cartographic modeling techniques. To accomplish this scope, Landsat 8-OLI image dated 2016 and SRTM 1Arc-Second Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data were used. Landsat image was classified into seven land use and land cover (LULC) classes by using remote sensing and GIS's software. Different inundation scenarios 1.0, 2.0, and 3.0-m coastal elevation were used to figure the influence of SLR on the study area. Estimation of potential losses under SLR was made by overlaying the expected scenarios on land use. The inundation areas under the expected SLR scenarios of 1.0, 2.0, and 3.0 m were estimated at 827.49, 1072.67, and 1179.41 km 2 , respectively. In conclusion, this study demonstrated that expected coastal flooding scenarios will lead up to serious impacts on LULC classes and coastal features in the study area.

  4. Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in Three Representative Ukrainian Catchments Using Eco-Hydrological Modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iulii Didovets

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The information about climate change impact on river discharge is vitally important for planning adaptation measures. The future changes can affect different water-related sectors. The main goal of this study was to investigate the potential water resource changes in Ukraine, focusing on three mesoscale river catchments (Teteriv, Upper Western Bug, and Samara characteristic for different geographical zones. The catchment scale watershed model—Soil and Water Integrated Model (SWIM—was setup, calibrated, and validated for the three catchments under consideration. A set of seven GCM-RCM (General Circulation Model-Regional Climate Model coupled climate scenarios corresponding to RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5 were used to drive the hydrological catchment model. The climate projections, used in the study, were considered as three combinations of low, intermediate, and high end scenarios. Our results indicate the shifts in the seasonal distribution of runoff in all three catchments. The spring high flow occurs earlier as a result of temperature increases and earlier snowmelt. The fairly robust trend is an increase in river discharge in the winter season, and most of the scenarios show a potential decrease in river discharge in the spring.

  5. Assessing anthropogenic impacts on limited water resources under semi-arid conditions: three-dimensional transient regional modelling in Jordan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rödiger, Tino; Magri, Fabien; Geyer, Stefan; Morandage, Shehan Tharaka; Ali Subah, H. E.; Alraggad, Marwan; Siebert, Christian

    2017-11-01

    Both increasing aridity and population growth strongly stress freshwater resources in semi-arid areas such as Jordan. The country's second largest governorate, Irbid, with over 1 million inhabitants, is already suffering from an annual water deficit of 25 million cubic meters (MCM). The population is expected to double within the next 20 years. Even without the large number of refugees from Syria, the deficit will likely increase to more then 50 MCM per year by 2035 The Governorate's exclusive resource is groundwater, abstracted by the extensive Al Arab and Kufr Asad well fields. This study presents the first three-dimensional transient regional groundwater flow model of the entire Wadi al Arab to answer important questions regarding the dynamic quality and availability of water within the catchment. Emphasis is given to the calculation and validation of the dynamic groundwater recharge, derived from a multi-proxy approach, including (1) a hydrological model covering a 30-years dataset, (2) groundwater level measurements and (3) information about springs. The model enables evaluation of the impact of abstraction on the flow regime and the groundwater budget of the resource. Sensitivity analyses of controlling parameters indicate that intense abstraction in the southern part of the Wadi al Arab system can result in critical water-level drops of 10 m at a distance of 16 km from the production wells. Moreover, modelling results suggest that observed head fluctuations are strongly controlled by anthropogenic abstraction rather than variable recharge rates due to climate changes.

  6. Regional-scale geomechanical impact assessment of underground coal gasification by coupled 3D thermo-mechanical modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otto, Christopher; Kempka, Thomas; Kapusta, Krzysztof; Stańczyk, Krzysztof

    2016-04-01

    Underground coal gasification (UCG) has the potential to increase the world-wide coal reserves by utilization of coal deposits not mineable by conventional methods. The UCG process involves combusting coal in situ to produce a high-calorific synthesis gas, which can be applied for electricity generation or chemical feedstock production. Apart from its high economic potentials, UCG may induce site-specific environmental impacts such as fault reactivation, induced seismicity and ground subsidence, potentially inducing groundwater pollution. Changes overburden hydraulic conductivity resulting from thermo-mechanical effects may introduce migration pathways for UCG contaminants. Due to the financial efforts associated with UCG field trials, numerical modeling has been an important methodology to study coupled processes considering UCG performance. Almost all previous UCG studies applied 1D or 2D models for that purpose, that do not allow to predict the performance of a commercial-scale UCG operation. Considering our previous findings, demonstrating that far-field models can be run at a higher computational efficiency by using temperature-independent thermo-mechanical parameters, representative coupled simulations based on complex 3D regional-scale models were employed in the present study. For that purpose, a coupled thermo-mechanical 3D model has been developed to investigate the environmental impacts of UCG based on a regional-scale of the Polish Wieczorek mine located in the Upper Silesian Coal Basin. The model size is 10 km × 10 km × 5 km with ten dipping lithological layers, a double fault and 25 UCG reactors. Six different numerical simulation scenarios were investigated, considering the transpressive stress regime present in that part of the Upper Silesian Coal Basin. Our simulation results demonstrate that the minimum distance between the UCG reactors is about the six-fold of the coal seam thickness to avoid hydraulic communication between the single UCG

  7. Assessing the cumulative impacts of geographically isolated wetlands on watershed hydrology using the SWAT model coupled with improved wetland modules.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, S; Yeo, I-Y; Lang, M W; Sadeghi, A M; McCarty, G W; Moglen, G E; Evenson, G R

    2018-06-07

    Despite recognizing the importance of wetlands in the Coastal Plain of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed (CBW) in terms of ecosystem services, our understanding of wetland functions has mostly been limited to individual wetlands and overall catchment-scale wetland functions have rarely been investigated. This study is aimed at assessing the cumulative impacts of wetlands on watershed hydrology for an agricultural watershed within the Coastal Plain of the CBW using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). We employed two improved wetland modules for enhanced representation of physical processes and spatial distribution of riparian wetlands (RWs) and geographically isolated wetlands (GIWs). This study focused on GIWs as their hydrological impacts on watershed hydrology are poorly understood and GIWs are poorly protected. Multiple wetland scenarios were prepared by removing all or portions of the baseline GIW condition indicated by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service National Wetlands Inventory geospatial dataset. We further compared the impacts of GIWs and RWs on downstream flow (i.e., streamflow at the watershed outlet). Our simulation results showed that GIWs strongly influenced downstream flow by altering water transport mechanisms in upstream areas. Loss of all GIWs reduced both water routed to GIWs and water infiltrated into the soil through the bottom of GIWs, leading to an increase in surface runoff of 9% and a decrease in groundwater flow of 7% in upstream areas. These changes resulted in increased variability of downstream flow in response to extreme flow conditions. GIW loss also induced an increase in month to month variability of downstream flow and a decrease in the baseflow contribution to streamflow. Loss of all GIWs was shown to cause a greater fluctuation of downstream flow than loss of all RWs for this study site, due to a greater total water storage capacity of GIWs. Our findings indicate that GIWs play a significant role in controlling hydrological

  8. Impact of covariate models on the assessment of the air pollution-mortality association in a single- and multipollutant context.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sacks, Jason D; Ito, Kazuhiko; Wilson, William E; Neas, Lucas M

    2012-10-01

    With the advent of multicity studies, uniform statistical approaches have been developed to examine air pollution-mortality associations across cities. To assess the sensitivity of the air pollution-mortality association to different model specifications in a single and multipollutant context, the authors applied various regression models developed in previous multicity time-series studies of air pollution and mortality to data from Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (May 1992-September 1995). Single-pollutant analyses used daily cardiovascular mortality, fine particulate matter (particles with an aerodynamic diameter ≤2.5 µm; PM(2.5)), speciated PM(2.5), and gaseous pollutant data, while multipollutant analyses used source factors identified through principal component analysis. In single-pollutant analyses, risk estimates were relatively consistent across models for most PM(2.5) components and gaseous pollutants. However, risk estimates were inconsistent for ozone in all-year and warm-season analyses. Principal component analysis yielded factors with species associated with traffic, crustal material, residual oil, and coal. Risk estimates for these factors exhibited less sensitivity to alternative regression models compared with single-pollutant models. Factors associated with traffic and crustal material showed consistently positive associations in the warm season, while the coal combustion factor showed consistently positive associations in the cold season. Overall, mortality risk estimates examined using a source-oriented approach yielded more stable and precise risk estimates, compared with single-pollutant analyses.

  9. Entity-Based Landscape Modelling to Assess the Impacts of Different Incentives Mechanisms on Argan Forest Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farid El Wahidi

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Illegal occupation of argan forest parcels by local households is a new phenomenon in South West Morocco. This is primarily due to the weakening of traditional common control systems and to the boom of the argan oil price. The scope of this work is to develop a decision support system based on dynamic spatial modelling, allowing to anticipate the land tenure dynamics and their impact on forest stand degradation under different policy scenarios. The model simulates the change of land possession by locals and the forest stand degradation levels. The methodological approach combines a Markov chain analysis (MCA with stakeholders’ preferences for land tenure. First, parcels’ transition probabilities are computed using the MCA. Second, the acquiring suitability map is derived from multi-criteria evaluation procedure (AHP using biophysical and socio-economic data. Finally, uncertainty is introduced in the simulation based on probabilistic analysis for supporting socio-economic diversity and non-mechanistic human behavior. The modelling approach was successfully used to compare three scenarios: business as usual (continuation of illegal acquiring, total disengagement of the population and private/public partnership with incentives for restoring argan parcel. The model yields geographic information about (i the magnitude of the on-going process; (ii the potential occurrence of land use conflicts induced by new policies; and (iii the location of land conservation or degradation hot-spots. The outcomes of the “business as usual” and of the “total disengagement” models were similar over a 30-year simulation period: in both cases, the proportion of “highly degraded” parcels was doubled and the number of “quite degraded” parcels was increased by 50%. On the other hand, should the private/public partnership effectively work, about 40% of the parcels could be restored to a sustainable level.

  10. A model for assessing the radiological impacts of deep sea disposal of radioactive wastes: development of the model and preliminary results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poulin, M.; Chartier, M.; Durrieu de Madron, X.

    1987-10-01

    A new numerical model has been developed in France to assess the radiological consequences of low level radioactive waste disposal on the sea bottom of the Atlantic Ocean. It is a box model covering the world ocean with a finer resolution in the North Atlantic and near the Nuclear Energy Agency dumpsite. The main processes involved in the nuclides transfer from the drums to man are modelled or parameterized: time variations of the nuclides release, advection and diffusion by the ocean fluid, adsorption-desorption on particles, sedimentation and burial of sediments, transfers through organisms living in the sea (fishes, crustaceans, molluscs, seaweeds, plankton,...). The dose equivalent to critical group members and the collective dose equivalent are assessed. A sensitivity analysis of the model has been performed to assess the reliability of the dose calculations. An intercomparison exercise has been achieved with two other independent models on a benchmark problem

  11. Application of General Circulation Models to Assess the Potential Impact of Climate Change on Potential Distribution and Relative Abundance of Melanoplus sanguinipes (Fabricius (Orthoptera: Acrididae in North America

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. Olfert

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate is the dominant factor determining the distribution and abundance of most insect species. In recent years, the issue of climatic changes caused by human activities and the effects on agriculture has raised concern. General circulation model scenarios were applied to a bioclimatic model of Melanoplus sanguinipes to assess the potential impact of global warming on its distribution and relative abundance. Native to North America and widely distributed, M. sanguinipes is one of the grasshopper species of the continent most responsible for economic damage to grain, oilseed, pulse, and forage crops. Compared to predicted range and distribution under current climate conditions, model results indicated that M. sanguinipes would have increased range and relative abundance under the three general circulation model scenarios in more northern regions of North America. Conversely, model output predicted that the range of this crop pest could contract in regions where climate conditions became limiting.

  12. Impact assessment of agricultural innovations: a review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Carlos Barrientos-Fuentes

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available The current conditions of the markets and favorable policies, as well as the progress of science and communications, are promoting further development and diffusion of agricultural innovations, which have effects on different areas of agrarian development. The objective of this paper is to present a review of characteristics of agricultural innovations and their diffusion, adoption and impacts, as well as an update of the types and methods of assessment. Agricultural innovations are not only new or improved products, they are also models and systems, and should have a positive social effect. Innovation areas in developing countries are more concentrated on production and distribution, whereas developed countries concentrate on offering inputs. Investments from the private sector in agricultural innovations are growing faster than those from the public sector. The adoption of innovations is medium-term, and usually less than 100%. The impact of innovations includes intermediate areas, such as institutional, political, scientific and productive areas. The economic efficiency of the investment in innovations is the most often mentioned purpose of impact assessments in the literature. The efficiency analysis (ex-post and its surplus approach is still the most used method for assessing impact of agricultural innovations. Nevertheless, other goals are becoming more important, such as food security, environmental protection and poverty reduction. Livelihood, comprehensive and multidimensional approaches go beyond the economic approach. Moreover, specific models with advantages of prognosis and improved precision are replacing or complementing the classic socio-economic approach

  13. Assessing Receiving Water Quality Impacts due to Flow Path Alteration in Residential Catchments, using the Stormwater and Wastewater Management Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolosoff, S. E.; Duncan, J.; Endreny, T.

    2001-05-01

    The Croton water supply system, responsible for supplying approximately 10% of New York City's water, provides an opportunity for exploration into the impacts of significant terrestrial flow path alteration upon receiving water quality. Natural flow paths are altered during residential development in order to allow for construction at a given location, reductions in water table elevation in low lying areas and to provide drainage of increased overland flow volumes. Runoff conducted through an artificial drainage system, is prevented from being attenuated by the natural environment, thus the pollutant removal capacity inherent in most natural catchments is often limited to areas where flow paths are not altered by development. By contrasting the impacts of flow path alterations in two small catchments in the Croton system, with different densities of residential development, we can begin to identify appropriate limits to the re-routing of runoff in catchments draining into surface water supplies. The Stormwater and Wastewater Management Model (SWMM) will be used as a tool to predict the runoff quantity and quality generated from two small residential catchments and to simulate the potential benefits of changes to the existing drainage system design, which may improve water quality due to longer residence times.

  14. Assessing the regional impact of indonesian biomass burning emissions based on organic molecular tracers and chemical mass balance modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engling, G.; He, J.; Betha, R.; Balasubramanian, R.

    2014-08-01

    Biomass burning activities commonly occur in Southeast Asia (SEA), and are particularly intense in Indonesia during the dry seasons. The effect of biomass smoke emissions on air quality in the city state of Singapore was investigated during a haze episode in October 2006. Substantially increased levels of airborne particulate matter (PM) and associated chemical species were observed during the haze period. Specifically, the enhancement in the concentration of molecular tracers for biomass combustion such as levoglucosan by as much as two orders of magnitude and the diagnostic ratios of individual organic compounds indicated that biomass burning emissions caused a regional smoke haze episode due to their long-range transport by prevailing winds. With the aid of air mass backward trajectories and chemical mass balance modeling, large-scale forest and peat fires in Sumatra and Kalimantan were identified as the sources of the smoke aerosol, exerting a significant impact on air quality in downwind areas, such as Singapore.

  15. Using niche-based modelling to assess the impact of climate change on tree functional diversity in Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thuiller, Wilfried; Lavorel, Sandra; Sykes, Martin T.

    2006-01-01

    Rapid anthropogenic climate change is already affecting species distributions and ecosystem functioning worldwide. We applied niche-based models to analyse the impact of climate change on tree species and functional diversity in Europe. Present-day climate was used to predict the distributions...... of 122 tree species from different functional types (FT). We then explored projections of future distributions under one climate scenario for 2080, considering two alternative dispersal assumptions: no dispersal and unlimited dispersal. The species-rich broadleaved deciduous group appeared to play a key...... role in the future of different European regions. Temperate areas were projected to lose both species richness and functional diversity due to the loss of broadleaved deciduous trees. These were projected to migrate to boreal forests, thereby increasing their species richness and functional diversity...

  16. Assessment of climate change impact on the fates of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in the multimedia environment based on model prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Juan Juan; Song, Jee Hey; Lee, Yunah; Lee, Dong Soo

    2014-02-01

    The objective was to quantitatively understand the impacts of climate change (CC) under the A1B scenario on the contamination levels of 11 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) from pyrogenic sources in the environmental media based on model prediction. To predict the impacts of CC in South Korea, a revised version of KoEFT-PBTs, a dynamic multimedia model for persistent organic pollutants in South Korea, was used. Simulations were conducted for the period from 2000 to 2049 under the A1B scenario with the emission data for 2009 and the results for Seoul and Kangwon were compared to those under no climate change (NCC) scenario. Due to CC, the average of annual or monthly average concentration changes within a factor of two for the PAHs in air, soil and water. Time dependent comparison indicates that the maximum increase induced by CC in the monthly average concentration ranges from 10 to 10(2) in air and water. Change in advective flux due to wind speed difference between A1B and NCC dictates the change of the atmospheric PAHs levels while wet particle deposition due to rain rate difference contributes to some extent to the change of 5 and 6 ring PAHs. Whether the concentration change is positive or not depends primarily on the emission strength of internal sources relative to those in surrounding areas. The CC induced changes in atmospheric depositions and degradation rate in soil play a leading role in the change of soil concentration. In water, runoff and degradation are the key processes to the CC induced concentration change. Both in soil and water, the relative importance of individual key processes varies with PAHs. The difference between the two scenarios in wind speed and in rain rate shows stronger correlations with the concentration change than the temperature change. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Improving Hybrid III injury assessment in steering wheel rim to chest impacts using responses from finite element Hybrid III and human body model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmqvist, Kristian; Davidsson, Johan; Mendoza-Vazquez, Manuel; Rundberget, Peter; Svensson, Mats Y; Thorn, Stefan; Törnvall, Fredrik

    2014-01-01

    The main aim of this study was to improve the quality of injury risk assessments in steering wheel rim to chest impacts when using the Hybrid III crash test dummy in frontal heavy goods vehicle (HGV) collision tests. Correction factors for chest injury criteria were calculated as the model chest injury parameter ratios between finite element (FE) Hybrid III, evaluated in relevant load cases, and the Total Human Model for Safety (THUMS). This is proposed to be used to compensate Hybrid III measurements in crash tests where steering wheel rim to chest impacts occur. The study was conducted in an FE environment using an FE-Hybrid III model and the THUMS. Two impactor shapes were used, a circular hub and a long, thin horizontal bar. Chest impacts at velocities ranging from 3.0 to 6.0 m/s were simulated at 3 impact height levels. A ratio between FE-Hybrid III and THUMS chest injury parameters, maximum chest compression C max, and maximum viscous criterion VC max, were calculated for the different chest impact conditions to form a set of correction factors. The definition of the correction factor is based on the assumption that the response from a circular hub impact to the middle of the chest is well characterized and that injury risk measures are independent of impact height. The current limits for these chest injury criteria were used as a basis to develop correction factors that compensate for the limitations in biofidelity of the Hybrid III in steering wheel rim to chest impacts. The hub and bar impactors produced considerably higher C max and VC max responses in the THUMS compared to the FE-Hybrid III. The correction factor for the responses of the FE-Hybrid III showed that the criteria responses for the bar impactor were consistently overestimated. Ratios based on Hybrid III and THUMS responses provided correction factors for the Hybrid III responses ranging from 0.84 to 0.93. These factors can be used to estimate C max and VC max values when the Hybrid III is

  18. A Methodology for Safety Culture Impact Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Han, Kiyoon; Jae, Moosung [Hanyang Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-05-15

    The purpose of this study is to develop methodology for assessing safety culture impact on nuclear power plants. A new methodology for assessing safety culture impact index has been developed and applied for the reference nuclear power plants. The developed SCII model might contribute to comparing the level of safety culture among nuclear power plants as well as to improving the safety of nuclear power plants. Safety culture is defined to be fundamental attitudes and behaviors of the plant staff which demonstrate that nuclear safety is the most important consideration in all activities conducted in nuclear power operation. Through several accidents of nuclear power plant including the Fukusima Daiichi in 2011 and Chernovyl accidents in 1986, the safety of nuclear power plant is emerging into a matter of interest. From the accident review report, it can be easily found out that safety culture is important and one of dominant contributors to accidents. However, the impact methodology for assessing safety culture has not been established analytically yet. It is difficult to develop the methodology for assessing safety culture impact quantitatively.

  19. A Methodology for Safety Culture Impact Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Han, Kiyoon; Jae, Moosung

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to develop methodology for assessing safety culture impact on nuclear power plants. A new methodology for assessing safety culture impact index has been developed and applied for the reference nuclear power plants. The developed SCII model might contribute to comparing the level of safety culture among nuclear power plants as well as to improving the safety of nuclear power plants. Safety culture is defined to be fundamental attitudes and behaviors of the plant staff which demonstrate that nuclear safety is the most important consideration in all activities conducted in nuclear power operation. Through several accidents of nuclear power plant including the Fukusima Daiichi in 2011 and Chernovyl accidents in 1986, the safety of nuclear power plant is emerging into a matter of interest. From the accident review report, it can be easily found out that safety culture is important and one of dominant contributors to accidents. However, the impact methodology for assessing safety culture has not been established analytically yet. It is difficult to develop the methodology for assessing safety culture impact quantitatively

  20. Let us make impact assessment more accessible

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alton, Charles C.; Underwood, P. Benjamin

    2003-01-01

    Impact assessment professionals have traditionally written documents for themselves. Often, their work appears to be received with indifference by business professionals and decision makers who have different needs and interests. The two groups conflict when they should be thinking and planning together at the 'big picture' level (including the understanding of the social factors at work in environmental impact assessment) and developing related and workable 'site-specific' implementation that characterizes socially acceptable decision making. To achieve this goal, the IA professional needs to rethink the approach. IA professionals often focus on the traditional 'physical' environment, confining the assessment to facts and figures about hard aspects of the environment. Reams of detailed data are compiled to demonstrate impact assessment and to achieve a degree of certainty and precision. However, the sheer bulk of data assures that it will not be read by those who most need to use it. The IA professional must learn to prepare assessments that effectively consider less quantifiable, 'softer' aspects of the environment. We advocate preparation of an impact analysis that management decision makers and environmental stewards can use as a reference tool. The goal is to reduce or eliminate the hundreds of unread pages containing lengthy modeling runs and obscure details, and instead to prepare documents that are useful in both courtroom and boardroom. This convenient and quick-study 'consumer report' style combines with a tiered decision making process that assures broad long-term thinking and planning, and focused short-term detailed implementation, using a level of detail appropriate to the decision at hand. This methodology integrates social factors into decision making, so as to provide meaningful discussion and analysis. These principles, which have been proven in US boardrooms and courtrooms, will be illustrated with actual examples from broad policy-level impact

  1. Selection of a representative subset of global climate models that captures the profile of regional changes for integrated climate impacts assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alex C. Ruane

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract We present the Representative Temperature and Precipitation (T&P GCM Subsetting Approach developed within the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP to select a practical subset of global climate models (GCMs for regional integrated assessment of climate impacts when resource limitations do not permit the full ensemble of GCMs to be evaluated given the need to also focus on impacts sector and economics models. Subsetting inherently leads to a loss of information but can free up resources to explore important uncertainties in the integrated assessment that would otherwise be prohibitive. The Representative T&P GCM Subsetting Approach identifies five individual GCMs that capture a profile of the full ensemble of temperature and precipitation change within the growing season while maintaining information about the probability that basic classes of climate changes (relatively cool/wet, cool/dry, middle, hot/wet, and hot/dry are projected in the full GCM ensemble. We demonstrate the selection methodology for maize impacts in Ames, Iowa, and discuss limitations and situations when additional information may be required to select representative GCMs. We then classify 29 GCMs over all land areas to identify regions and seasons with characteristic diagonal skewness related to surface moisture as well as extreme skewness connected to snow-albedo feedbacks and GCM uncertainty. Finally, we employ this basic approach to recognize that GCM projections demonstrate coherence across space, time, and greenhouse gas concentration pathway. The Representative T&P GCM Subsetting Approach provides a quantitative basis for the determination of useful GCM subsets, provides a practical and coherent approach where previous assessments selected solely on availability of scenarios, and may be extended for application to a range of scales and sectoral impacts.

  2. Sense-making and Impact Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lyhne, Ivar

    The poster integrates knowledge about how we make sense of situations into SEA methodology to strengthen the staging of impact assessments and the process of scoping impacts.......The poster integrates knowledge about how we make sense of situations into SEA methodology to strengthen the staging of impact assessments and the process of scoping impacts....

  3. Evaluating the impact of climate policies on regional food availability and accessibility using an Integrated Assessment Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilmore, E.; Cui, Y. R.; Waldhoff, S.

    2015-12-01

    Beyond 2015, eradicating hunger will remain a critical part of the global development agenda through the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). Efforts to limit climate change through both mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and land use policies may interact with food availability and accessibility in complex and unanticipated ways. Here, we develop projections of regional food accessibility to 2050 under the alternative futures outlined by the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and under different climate policy targets and structures. We use the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), an integrated assessment model (IAM), for our projections. We calculate food access as the weighted average of consumption of five staples and the portion of income spend on those commodities and extend the GCAM calculated universal global producer price to regional consumer prices drawing on historical relationships of these prices. Along the SSPs, food access depends largely on expectations of increases in population and economic status. Under a more optimistic scenario, the pressures on food access from increasing demand and rising prices can be counterbalanced by faster economic development. Stringent climate policies that increase commodity prices, however, may hinder vulnerable regions, namely Sub-Saharan Africa, from achieving greater food accessibility.

  4. Linked models to assess the impacts of climate change on nitrogen in a Norwegian river basin and fjord system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaste, O.; Wright, R.F.; Barkved, L.J.; Bjerkeng, B.; Engen-Skaugen, T.; Magnusson, J.; Saelthun, N.R.

    2006-01-01

    Dynamically downscaled data from two Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs), ECHAM4 from the Max-Planck Institute (MPI), Germany and HadAm3H from the Hadley Centre (HAD), UK, driven with two scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions (IS92a and A2, respectively) were used to make climate change projections. These projections were then used to drive four effect models linked to assess the effects on hydrology, and nitrogen (N) concentrations and fluxes, in the Bjerkreim river basin (685-km 2 ) and its coastal fjord, southwestern Norway. The four effect models were the hydrological model HBV, the water quality models MAGIC, INCA-N and the NIVA FJORD model. The downscaled climate scenarios project a general temperature increase in the study region of approximately 1 deg. C by 2030-2049 (MPI IS92a) and approximately 3 deg. C by 2071-2100 (HAD A2). Both scenarios imply increased winter precipitation, whereas the projections of summer and autumn precipitation are quite different, with the MPI scenario projecting a slight increase and the HAD scenario a significant decrease. As a response to increased winter temperature, the HBV model simulates a dramatic reduction of snow accumulation in the upper parts of the catchment, which in turn lead to higher runoff during winter and lower runoff during snowmelt in the spring. With the HAD scenario, runoff in summer and early autumn is substantially reduced as a result of reduced precipitation, increased temperatures and thereby increased evapotranspiration. The water quality models, MAGIC and INCA-N project no major changes in nitrate (NO 3 - ) concentrations and fluxes within the MPI scenario, but a significant increase in concentrations and a 40-50% increase in fluxes in the HAD scenario. As a consequence, the acidification of the river could increase, thus offsetting ongoing recovery from acidification due to reductions in acid deposition. Additionally, the increased N loading may stimulate growth of N-limited benthic

  5. Assessing the impact of uncertainty on flood risk estimates with reliability analysis using 1-D and 2-D hydraulic models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Altarejos-García

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper addresses the use of reliability techniques such as Rosenblueth's Point-Estimate Method (PEM as a practical alternative to more precise Monte Carlo approaches to get estimates of the mean and variance of uncertain flood parameters water depth and velocity. These parameters define the flood severity, which is a concept used for decision-making in the context of flood risk assessment. The method proposed is particularly useful when the degree of complexity of the hydraulic models makes Monte Carlo inapplicable in terms of computing time, but when a measure of the variability of these parameters is still needed. The capacity of PEM, which is a special case of numerical quadrature based on orthogonal polynomials, to evaluate the first two moments of performance functions such as the water depth and velocity is demonstrated in the case of a single river reach using a 1-D HEC-RAS model. It is shown that in some cases, using a simple variable transformation, statistical distributions of both water depth and velocity approximate the lognormal. As this distribution is fully defined by its mean and variance, PEM can be used to define the full probability distribution function of these flood parameters and so allowing for probability estimations of flood severity. Then, an application of the method to the same river reach using a 2-D Shallow Water Equations (SWE model is performed. Flood maps of mean and standard deviation of water depth and velocity are obtained, and uncertainty in the extension of flooded areas with different severity levels is assessed. It is recognized, though, that whenever application of Monte Carlo method is practically feasible, it is a preferred approach.

  6. Bioregional Assessments: Determining the Impacts of Coal Resource Development on Water Resources in Australia through Groundwater, Surface Water and Ecological Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peeters, L. J.; Post, D. A.; Crosbie, R.; Holland, K.

    2017-12-01

    While extraction of methane from shale gas deposits has been the principal source of the recent expansion of the industry in the United States, in Australia extraction of methane from coal bed methane deposits (termed `coal seam gas' in Australia) has been the focus to date. The two sources of methane share many of the same characteristics including the potential requirement for hydraulic fracturing. However, as coal seam gas deposits generally occur at shallower depths than shale gas, the potential impacts of extraction on surface and groundwater resources may be of even greater concern. The Australian Federal Government commissioned a multi-disciplinary programme of bioregional assessments to improve understanding of the potential impacts of coal seam gas and large coal mining activities on water resources and water-dependent assets across six bioregions Australia. A bioregional assessment is a transparent scientific analysis of the ecology, hydrology, geology and hydrogeology of a bioregion with explicit assessment of the potential direct, indirect and cumulative impacts of coal seam gas and large coal mining development on water resources. The first step in the analysis is to establish the most likely scenario for coal development in each region and establish a causal pathway linking coal development to impacts to the social, economic and ecological functioning of water resources. This forms the basis for a sequence of probabilistic geological, hydrogeological, hydrological and ecological models to quantify the probability of potential impacts. This suite of models is developed independent of the proponents and regulators of coal resource developments and so can provide unbiased information to all stakeholders. To demonstrate transparency of the modelling, all inputs, outputs and executables will be available from http://www.bioregionalassessments.gov.au. The analysis delineated a zone of potential hydrological change for each region, outside of which impacts

  7. Assessing the impact of large-scale computing on the size and complexity of first-principles electromagnetic models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, E.K.

    1990-01-01

    There is a growing need to determine the electromagnetic performance of increasingly complex systems at ever higher frequencies. The ideal approach would be some appropriate combination of measurement, analysis, and computation so that system design and assessment can be achieved to a needed degree of accuracy at some acceptable cost. Both measurement and computation benefit from the continuing growth in computer power that, since the early 1950s, has increased by a factor of more than a million in speed and storage. For example, a CRAY2 has an effective throughput (not the clock rate) of about 10 11 floating-point operations (FLOPs) per hour compared with the approximate 10 5 provided by the UNIVAC-1. The purpose of this discussion is to illustrate the computational complexity of modeling large (in wavelengths) electromagnetic problems. In particular the author makes the point that simply relying on faster computers for increasing the size and complexity of problems that can be modeled is less effective than might be anticipated from this raw increase in computer throughput. He suggests that rather than depending on faster computers alone, various analytical and numerical alternatives need development for reducing the overall FLOP count required to acquire the information desired. One approach is to decrease the operation count of the basic model computation itself, by reducing the order of the frequency dependence of the various numerical operations or their multiplying coefficients. Another is to decrease the number of model evaluations that are needed, an example being the number of frequency samples required to define a wideband response, by using an auxiliary model of the expected behavior. 11 refs., 5 figs., 2 tabs

  8. Results of an adaptive environmental assessment modeling workshop concerning potential impacts of drilling muds and cuttings on the marine environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Auble, Gregor T.; Andrews, Austin K.; Ellison, Richard A.; Hamilton, David B.; Johnson, Richard A.; Roelle, James E.; Marmorek, David R.

    1983-01-01

    Drilling fluids or "muds" are essential components of modern drilling operations. They provide integrity for the well bore, a medium for removal of formation cuttings, and lubrication and cooling of the drill bit and pipe. The modeling workshop described in this report was conducted September 14-18, 1981 in Gulf Breeze, Florida to consider potential impacts of discharged drilling muds and cuttings on the marine environment. The broad goals of the workshop were synthesis of information on fate and effects, identification of general relationships between drilling fluids and the marine environment, and identification of site-specific variables likely to determine impacts of drilling muds and cuttings in various marine sites. The workshop was structured around construction of a model simulating fate and effects of discharges from a single rig into open water areas of the Gulf of Mexico, and discussion of factors that might produce different fate and effects in enclosed areas such as bays and estuaries. The simulation model was composed of four connected submodels. A Discharge/Fate submodel dealt with the discharge characteristics of the rig and the subsequent fate of discharged material. Three effects submodels then calculated biological responses at distances away from the rig for the water column, soft bottom benthos (assuming the rig was located over a soft bottom environment), and hard bottom benthos (assuming the rig was located over a hard bottom environment). The model focused on direct linkages between the discharge and various organisms rather than on how the marine ecosystem itself is interconnected. Behavior of the simulation model indicated relatively localized effects of drilling muds and cuttings discharged from a single platform into open water areas. Water column fate and effects were dominated by rapid dilution. Effects from deposition of spent mud and cuttings were spatially limited with relatively rapid recovery, especially in soft bottom benthic

  9. DRSPALL: Impact of the Modification of the Numerical Spallings Model on Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Performance Assessment.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kicker, Dwayne Curtis [Stoller Newport News Nuclear, Inc., Carlsbad, NM (United States); Herrick, Courtney G. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Carlsbad, NM (United States); Zeitler, Todd [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Carlsbad, NM (United States); Malama, Bwalya [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Carlsbad, NM (United States); Rudeen, David Keith [GRAM Inc., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Gilkey, Amy P. [GRAM Inc., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2016-01-01

    The numerical code DRSPALL (from direct release spallings) is written to calculate the volume of Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) solid waste subject to material failure and transport to the surface as a result of a hypothetical future inadvertent drilling intrusion. An error in the implementation of the DRSPALL finite difference equations was discovered as documented in Software Problem Report (SPR) 13-001. The modifications to DRSPALL to correct the finite difference equations are detailed, and verification and validation testing has been completed for the modified DRSPALL code. The complementary cumulative distribution function (CCDF) of spallings releases obtained using the modified DRSPALL is higher compared to that found in previous WIPP performance assessment (PA) calculations. Compared to previous PAs, there was an increase in the number of vectors that result in a nonzero spallings volume, which generally translates to an increase in spallings releases. The overall mean CCDFs for total releases using the modified DRSPALL are virtually unchanged, thus the modification to DRSPALL did not impact WIPP PA calculation results.

  10. ASSESSMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT OF ENERGY FACILITIES IN THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF IRAN BY METHOD OF BUILDING COMPOSITE THREE-DIMENSIONAL MODELS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. A. Mehdizadeh

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The author represents the method of creating composite 3D-models employing technology of geographical information systems for environmental impact assessment of projected, constructed and operating energy facilities. The paper describes the techniques of applying bundled software ArcView with add-on modules ImageWarp and RASTRProfi for alignment of multiscale bit-mapped and direct-beam three-dimensional models with the object of evaluating ecological risks for diverse territories.The article evaluates the environmental impact of a thermal power plant near the city of Rasht (industrial area Saravan and demonstrates analysis of the territorial distribution of the soil contamination with varied pollutants at different wind structures. The paper demonstrates the method of building composite 3D-models applied for assessment of presumable incidents with radioactivity discharge at the nuclear power plant in Halileh, 20 km from the city of Bushehr. By analyzing the wind diagram in the territory being explored and determining the predominant wind directions in different periods, it is possible by way of employing this method to distinguish the territories and the objects with most unfavorable prognosis. This enables rendering a prompt decision on the measures minimizing unfavorable impact on the population and environment.Altering the point of topographical survey while synchronizing the scales, the researcher can place the designed project within any territory and analyze the necessary parameters for each variant.The author considers the presented in such a manner technique worth productive implementing while analyzing environmental impact of both operating and projected industrial facilities (industrial and agricultural enterprises, thermal and nuclear electric-power plants etc.. 

  11. Using the SUBER model for assessing the impact of cork debarking rotation on equivalent annual annuity in Portuguese stands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paulo, J.A.; Tomé, M.

    2017-01-01

    Aim of study: Use the SUBER model to evaluate the influence of the cork debarking rotation period (CDR) on equivalent annual annuity (EAA) value. Area of study: Nine simulated stands, varying in site index (14.4, 15.6, 17.1) and cork quality characteristics (high, medium, low). Material and methods: EAA values were computed considering CDR periods varying from 9 to 14 years, two contrasting structures of cork prices (high and low cork price scenarios), and three discount rate values (0.5%, 2% and 5%). Main results: For discount rates of 0.5% and 2% the impact of different CDR on the EAA is similar. In stands characterized by high to average site index values or high to medium cork quality characteristics, CDR of 9 and 11 years are associated with similar values of EAA. The variation of the CDR in stands characterized by low site index values and/or low cork quality characteristics did not have a relevant effect on the variation of EAA. For the simulations carried out with a discount rate of 5% the EAA decreases with the increase of CDR, indicating that the minimum legal value of 9 years for CDR should be applied. Research highlights: In stands characterized by high to average site index values or high to medium cork quality characteristics, a delay in the debarking may result in a significant increase of cork thickness and, as a result, of cork price. Detailed knowledge of cork and stand characteristics and updated information on cork prices structure and values are essential for the best usage of management tools such as the SUBER model, which can contribute to the decision-making process concerning the debarking operation.

  12. Using the SUBER model for assessing the impact of cork debarking rotation on equivalent annual annuity in Portuguese stands

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paulo, J.A.; Tomé, M.

    2017-11-01

    Aim of study: Use the SUBER model to evaluate the influence of the cork debarking rotation period (CDR) on equivalent annual annuity (EAA) value. Area of study: Nine simulated stands, varying in site index (14.4, 15.6, 17.1) and cork quality characteristics (high, medium, low). Material and methods: EAA values were computed considering CDR periods varying from 9 to 14 years, two contrasting structures of cork prices (high and low cork price scenarios), and three discount rate values (0.5%, 2% and 5%). Main results: For discount rates of 0.5% and 2% the impact of different CDR on the EAA is similar. In stands characterized by high to average site index values or high to medium cork quality characteristics, CDR of 9 and 11 years are associated with similar values of EAA. The variation of the CDR in stands characterized by low site index values and/or low cork quality characteristics did not have a relevant effect on the variation of EAA. For the simulations carried out with a discount rate of 5% the EAA decreases with the increase of CDR, indicating that the minimum legal value of 9 years for CDR should be applied. Research highlights: In stands characterized by high to average site index values or high to medium cork quality characteristics, a delay in the debarking may result in a significant increase of cork thickness and, as a result, of cork price. Detailed knowledge of cork and stand characteristics and updated information on cork prices structure and values are essential for the best usage of management tools such as the SUBER model, which can contribute to the decision-making process concerning the debarking operation.

  13. Impact of the Fenton process in meat digestion as assessed using an in vitro gastro-intestinal model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oueslati, Khaled; de La Pomélie, Diane; Santé-Lhoutellier, Véronique; Gatellier, Philippe

    2016-10-15

    The production of oxygen free radicals catalysed by non-haem iron was investigated in an in vitro mimetic model of the digestive tract using specific chemical traps. Superoxide radicals (O2(∗-)) and their protonated form (hydroperoxyl radicals, HO2(∗)) were detected by the reduction of nitroblue tetrazolium into formazan, and hydroxyl radicals (OH(∗)) were detected by the hydroxylation of terephthalate. Under gastric conditions, O2(∗-)/HO2(∗) were detected in higher quantity than OH(∗). Increasing the pH from 3.5 to 6.5 poorly affected the kinetics of free radical production. The oxidations generated by these free radicals were estimated on myofibrils prepared from pork rectus femoris muscle. Myofibrillar lipid and protein oxidation increased with time and oxidant concentration, with a negative impact on the digestibility of myofibrillar proteins. Plant food antioxidants considerably decreased free radical production and lipid oxidation but not protein oxidation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Assessing the impact of aviation on climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karen Marais

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available We present an assessment of the marginal climate impacts of new aviation activities. We use impulse response functions derived from carbon-cycle and atmospheric models to estimate changes in surface temperature for various aviation impacts (CO2, NOx on methane, NOx on ozone, sulfates, soot, and contrails/induced cirrus. We use different damage functions and discount rates to explore health, welfare and ecological costs for a range of assumptions and scenarios. Since uncertainty is high regarding many aviation effects, we explicitly capture some uncertainty by representing several model parameters as probabilistic distributions. The uncertainties are then propagated using Monte Carlo analysis to derive estimates for the impact of these uncertainties on the marginal future climate impacts. Our goal is to provide a framework that will communicate the potential impacts of aviation on climate change under different scenarios and assumptions, and that will allow decision-makers to compare these potential impacts to other aviation environmental impacts. We present results to describe the influence of parametric uncertainties, scenarios, and assumptions for valuation on the expected marginal future costs of aviation impacts. Estimates of the change in global average surface temperature due to aviation are most sensitive to changes in climate sensitivity, the radiative forcing attributed to short-lived effects (in particular those related to contrails and aviation-induced cirrus, and the choice of emissions scenario. Estimates of marginal future costs of aviation are most sensitive to assumptions regarding the discount rate, followed by assumptions regarding climate sensitivity, and the choice of emissions scenario.

  15. Environmental impact assessment Geopressure Subprogram

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    1977-07-01

    This environmental impact assessment (EIA) addresses the expected programmatic activities of the Geopressure Subprogram of the Division of Geothermal Energy. The goal of the Geopressure Subprogram is to stimulate development of geopressured resources as an economic, reliable, operationally safe, and environmentally acceptable energy source. The subprogram includes activities in the areas of engineering research and development; resource exploration, assessment, and development; resource utilization including pilot and demonstration facilities; and environmental research and control technology development. It should be recognized that most of the subprogram activities extend over several years and are in their early stages of implementation at this time. The zones of potential geopressure development are in the region located along the Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coasts extending up to 200 miles (300 km) inland. Geopressured zones are sedimentary basins where water is trapped at high pressures within or below thick, nearly impermeable shale sequences. The confined water supports most or all of the weight of the overburden. This inhibits sediment compaction and causes formation pore pressure to exceed hydrostatic pressure. in sedimentary basins that are underlain by thin oceanic crust, upward thermal conduction from the mantle heats geopressured fluids and sediments to abnormally high temperatures, often in excess of 260 C (500 F).

  16. Modeling Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Streamflow Using Projections of the 5th Assessment Report for the Bernam River Basin, Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nkululeko Simeon Dlamini

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Potential impacts of climate change on the streamflow of the Bernam River Basin in Malaysia are assessed using ten Global Climate Models (GCMs under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5. A graphical user interface was developed that integrates all of the common procedures of assessing climate change impacts, to generate high resolution climate variables (e.g., rainfall, temperature, etc. at the local scale from large-scale climate models. These are linked in one executable module to generate future climate sequences that can be used as inputs to various models, including hydrological and crop models. The generated outputs were used as inputs to the SWAT hydrological model to simulate the hydrological processes. The evaluation results indicated that the model performed well for the watershed with a monthly R2, Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE and Percent Bias (PBIAS values of 0.67, 0.62 and −9.4 and 0.62, 0.61 and −4.2 for the calibration and validation periods, respectively. The multi-model projections show an increase in future temperature (tmax and tmin in all respective scenarios, up to an average of 2.5 °C for under the worst-case scenario (RC8.5. Rainfall is also predicted to change with clear variations between the dry and wet season. Streamflow projections also followed rainfall pattern to a great extent with a distinct change between the dry and wet season possibly due to the increase in evapotranspiration in the watershed. In principle, the interface can be customized for the application to other watersheds by incorporating GCMs’ baseline data and their corresponding future data for those particular stations in the new watershed. Methodological limitations of the study are also discussed.

  17. Assessings impact of drought on water resources management in the Middle East using the GRACE data and hydrological modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rateb, A., II; Kuo, C. Y.; Imani, M.; Kao, H. C.; Shum, C. K.; Ching, K. E.; Tseng, K. H.; Lan, W. H.; Tseng, T. P.

    2017-12-01

    The Middle East (ME) region experiences severe freshwater shortages in 90% of the region due primarily to its semi-arid landscape and climate setting, the growth of its population which outpaces world's average population rate by 3.7%, and rapid economic development. The prolonged and intense drought which started in 2007 resulted in the significant decline of surface water availability in the Tigris-Euphrates basin, and exacerbated the anthropogenic groundwater extraction rate, which declined the productivity of agriculture, and displaced hundreds of thousands of people. Therefore, evaluating the impact of the drought on the total water storage (TWS) and groundwater storage (GWS) decline is critical to quantify water availability, towards more effective water resources management in the region. In this study, we use the monthly Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) twin-satellite mission gravity solutions, covering April 2002 through December 2015, and hydrological models (GLDAS, CLM4.5, and WGHM2.2b) to monitor the TWS and GWS before and after the onset of the pronged drought which started in 2007. We built an effective Slepian basis concentrated over the Arabian Peninsula (AP) and six regions, including Iran, Iraq, North AP, South AP, Syria-Jordan, and Eastern Turkey, to characterize the impact of the drought at the country scale. The results show that the drought has resulted in further reducing the TWS and GWS depletion rate by more than 50%. The ME region experienced a small negative trend between 2002 and 2007, and then the trend dropped dramatically after 2007. The worst affected regions are northern Iraq, northwestern Iran, and North AP. We compared the estimates with agriculture irrigation maps and characterized the depletion rates have been primarily caused by agriculture irrigation, which is directly linked to the pronged drought. Droughts are arguably longer in duration, more frequency and more intense in an increasingly warmer climate. The

  18. Emergency management at the boundary between expertise and decision: which role for CBRN-E atmospheric dispersion and impact assessment modeling?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benamrane, Yasmine

    2015-01-01

    Environmental and health impact assessment of accidental or intentional releases of potentially hazardous materials in the atmosphere is increasingly supported by the development of modeling tools. Their potential to assess the spatial and temporal extent and severity of toxic plumes contributes to their growing development as CBRN-E emergency support tools. However, the Fukushima nuclear accident underlined that their support is not yet optimal regarding civil security organizations in charge of population protection. This research therefore tends to clarify the role of these modelling tools in emergency management. For this purpose, interviews and observations of crisis exercises have been conducted. This study suggests that nowadays, CBRN-E emergency management takes place in a sense making co-constructing process between CBRN-E experts and emergency managers contributing to the achievement of consensus in the decision making process. This study also highlights the key role played by the crisis center, regarding its proper organizational structure as a sharing place between actors with complementary expertise and experience, in the perception and response to changing circumstances. Thus, this study suggests that by providing situation assessment results, modeling tools meet the current practices both in terms of emergency support tools used for civilian protection organization and in respect of each actors' contributions. In this perspective, these modelling tools are likely to end up being part of the development of crisis management support tools for building a collective representation of the CBRN-E situation between expertise and decision. (author) [fr

  19. A Meramod® model approach for the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA of the off–shore aquaculture improvement in the Alghero Bay (North western Sardinia, Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Saroglia

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Marine fish farming generates particulate wastes which are dispersed in the sea environment. To deal with this problem, particulate waste dispersion models have been developed to predict the effects of fish cage culture. In this study, we evaluated the seabed deposition of a fish farming facility located in the central western Mediterranean by using the Meramod® model. The objectives where first to assess the actual scenario, and second to forecast the possible impact due to the forthcoming enlargement of the farming area with the addition of new fish cages. By computing the hydrodynamic measurements and the daily amount of feed recorded between July and December 2006, the impact seabed surfaces forecasted by the model increased from 5.6ha in the actual scenario, up to 7.3ha in the future. The model estimated a maximum level of total solid flux deposition of 3,800g/m2bed/year and a maximum level of total carbon flux deposition of 1,350g/m2bed/year for both scenarios. Furthermore, the model predicted that the installation of 4 new fish cages (with an hypothetical mean daily amount of feed of 50kg/cage will produce a total solid and carbon flux deposition levels ranging 0-400 and 0-150g/m2bed/year respectively, under the new fish cages location.

  20. A model for assessing habitat fragmentation caused by new infrastructures in extensive territories - evaluation of the impact of the Spanish strategic infrastructure and transport plan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mancebo Quintana, S; Martín Ramos, B; Casermeiro Martínez, M A; Otero Pastor, I

    2010-05-01

    The aim of the present work is to design a model for evaluating the impact of planned infrastructures on species survival at the territorial scale by calculating a connectivity index. The method developed involves determining the effective distance of displacement between patches of the same habitat, simplifying earlier models so that there is no dependence on specific variables for each species. A case study is presented in which the model was used to assess the impact of the forthcoming roads and railways included in the Spanish Strategic Infrastructure and Transport Plan (PEIT, in its Spanish initials). This study took into account the habitats of peninsular Spain, which occupies an area of some 500,000 km(2). In this territory, the areas deemed to provide natural habitats are defined by Directive 92/43/EEC. The impact of new infrastructures on connectivity was assessed by comparing two scenarios, with and without the plan, for the major new road and railway networks. The calculation of the connectivity index (CI) requires the use of a raster methodology based on the Arc/Info geographical information system (GIS). The actual calculation was performed using a program written in Arc/Info Macro Language (AML); this program is available in FragtULs (Mancebo Quintana, 2007), a set of tools for calculating indicators of fragmentation caused by transport infrastructure (http://topografia.montes.upm.es/fragtuls.html). The indicator of connectivity proposed allows the estimation of the connectivity between all the patches of a territory, with no artificial (non-ecologically based) boundaries imposed. The model proposed appears to be a useful tool for the analysis of fragmentation caused by plans for large territories. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. The relative impact of climate change mitigation policies and socioeconomic drivers on water scarcity - An integrated assessment modeling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hejazi, M. I.; Edmonds, J. A.; Clarke, L. E.; Kyle, P.; Davies, E. G.; Chaturvedi, V.; Patel, P.; Eom, J.; Wise, M.; Kim, S.; Calvin, K. V.; Moss, R. H.

    2012-12-01

    We investigate the relative effects of climate emission mitigation policies and socioeconomic drivers on water scarcity conditions over the 21st century both globally and regionally, by estimating both water availability and demand within a technologically-detailed global integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, and climate change - the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). We first develop a global gridded monthly hydrologic model that reproduces historical streamflow observations and simulates the future availability of freshwater under both a changing climate and an evolving landscape, and incorporate this model into GCAM. We then develop and incorporate technologically oriented representations of water demands for the agricultural (irrigation and livestock), energy (electricity generation, primary energy production and processing), industrial (manufacturing and mining), and municipal sectors. The energy, industrial, and municipal sectors are represented in fourteen geopolitical regions, with the agricultural sector further disaggregated into as many as eighteen agro-ecological zones (AEZs) within each region. To perform the water scarcity analysis at the grid scale, the global water demands for the six demand sectors are spatially downscaled to 0.5 o x 0.5o resolution to match the scale of GWAM. The water scarcity index (WSI) compares total water demand to the total amount of renewable water available, and defines extreme water scarcity in any region as demand greater than 40% of total water availability. Using a reference scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W/m2 by 2095 and a global population of 14 billion, global annual water demand grows from about 9% of total annual renewable freshwater in 2005 to about 32% by 2095. This results in almost half of the world population living under extreme water scarcity by the end of the 21st century. Regionally, the demands for water exceed the total

  2. A modelling framework to assess climate change and adaptation impact on heterogeneous crop-livestock farming communities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Descheemaeker, K.K.E.; Masikati, P.; Homann-Kee Tui, S.; Chibwana, G.A.; Crespo, O.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change will impact the productivity of maize-based crop-livestock systems and the livelihoods of smallholders depending on them in semi-arid Zimbabwe. The large diversity in resource endowment and production objectives in rural communities differentially influences this impact and the

  3. Impact Assessment of Cigarette Smoke Exposure on Organotypic Bronchial Epithelial Tissue Cultures: A Comparison of Mono-Culture and Coculture Model Containing Fibroblasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iskandar, Anita R.; Xiang, Yang; Frentzel, Stefan; Talikka, Marja; Leroy, Patrice; Kuehn, Diana; Guedj, Emmanuel; Martin, Florian; Mathis, Carole; Ivanov, Nikolai V.; Peitsch, Manuel C.; Hoeng, Julia

    2015-01-01

    Organotypic 3D cultures of epithelial cells are grown at the air–liquid interface (ALI) and resemble the in vivo counterparts. Although the complexity of in vivo cellular responses could be better manifested in coculture models in which additional cell types such as fibroblasts were incorporated, the presence of another cell type could mask the response of the other. This study reports the impact of whole cigarette smoke (CS) exposure on organotypic mono- and coculture models to evaluate the relevancy of organotypic models for toxicological assessment of aerosols. Two organotypic bronchial models were directly exposed to low and high concentrations of CS of the reference research cigarette 3R4F: monoculture of bronchial epithelial cells without fibroblasts (BR) and coculture with fibroblasts (BRF) models. Adenylate kinase (AK)-based cytotoxicity, cytochrome P450 (CYP) 1A1/1B1 activity, tissue histology, and concentrations of secreted mediators into the basolateral media, as well as transcriptomes were evaluated following the CS exposure. The results demonstrated similar impact of CS on the AK-based cytotoxicity, CYP1A1/1B1 activity, and tissue histology in both models. However, a greater number of secreted mediators was identified in the basolateral media of the monoculture than in the coculture models. Furthermore, annotation analysis and network-based systems biology analysis of the transcriptomic profiles indicated a more prominent cellular stress and tissue damage following CS in the monoculture epithelium model without fibroblasts. Finally, our results indicated that an in vivo smoking-induced xenobiotic metabolism response of bronchial epithelial cells was better reflected from the in vitro CS-exposed coculture model. PMID:26085348

  4. A comprehensive environmental impact assessment method for shale gas development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renjin Sun

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The great success of US commercial shale gas exploitation stimulates the shale gas development in China, subsequently, the corresponding supporting policies were issued in the 12th Five-Year Plan. But from the experience in the US shale gas development, we know that the resulted environmental threats are always an unavoidable issue, but no uniform and standard evaluation system has yet been set up in China. The comprehensive environment refers to the combination of natural ecological environment and external macro-environment. In view of this, we conducted a series of studies on how to set up a comprehensive environmental impact assessment system as well as the related evaluation methodology and models. First, we made an in-depth investigation into shale gas development procedures and any possible environmental impacts, and then compared, screened and modified environmental impact assessment methods for shale gas development. Also, we established an evaluating system and assessment models according to different status of the above two types of environment: the correlation matrix method was employed to assess the impacts on natural ecological environment and the optimization distance method was modified to evaluate the impacts on external macro-environment. Finally, we substitute the two subindexes into the comprehensive environmental impact assessment model and achieved the final numerical result of environmental impact assessment. This model can be used to evaluate if a shale gas project has any impact on environment, compare the impacts before and after a shale gas development project, or the impacts of different projects.

  5. Modeling the Vakhsh Cascade in the Amu Darya River Basin - Implementing Future Storage Facilities in a Hydrological Model for Impact Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steiner, J. F.; Siegfried, T.; Yakovlev, A.

    2014-12-01

    In the Amu Darya River Basin in Central Asia, the Vakhsh catchment in Tajikistan is a major source of hydropower energy for the country. With a number of large dams already constructed, upstream Tajikistan is interested in the construction of one more large dam and a number of smaller storage facilities with the prospect of supplying its neighboring states with hydropower through a newly planned power grid. The impact of new storage facilities along the river is difficult to estimate and causes considerable concern and consternation among the downstream users. Today, it is one of the vexing poster child studies in international water conflict that awaits resolution. With a lack of meteorological data and a complex topography that makes application of remote sensed data difficult it is a challenge to model runoff correctly. Large parts of the catchment is glacierized and ranges from just 500 m asl to peaks above 7000 m asl. Based on in-situ time series for temperature and precipitation we find local correction factors for remote sensed products. Using this data we employ a model based on the Budyko framework with an extension for snow and ice in the higher altitude bands. The model furthermore accounts for groundwater and soil storage. Runoff data from a number of stations are used for the calibration of the model parameters. With an accurate representation of the existing and planned reservoirs in the Vakhsh cascade we study the potential impacts from the construction of the new large reservoir in the river. Impacts are measured in terms of a) the timing and availability of new hydropower energy, also in light of its potential for export to South Asia, b) shifting challenges with regard to river sediment loads and siltation of reservoirs and c) impacts on downstream runoff and the timely availability of irrigation water there. With our coupled hydro-climatological approach, the challenges of optimal cascade management can be addressed so as to minimize detrimental

  6. Assessing the impacts of human activities and climate variations on grassland productivity by partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM)

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SHA Zongyao; XIE Yichun; TAN Xicheng; BAI Yongfei; LI Jonathan; LIU Xuefeng

    2017-01-01

    The cause-effect associations between geographical phenomena are an important focus in ecological research.Recent studies in structural equation modeling (SEM) demonstrated the potential for analyzing such associations.We applied the variance-based partial least squares SEM (PLS-SEM) and geographically-weighted regression (GWR) modeling to assess the human-climate impact on grassland productivity represented by above-ground biomass (AGB).The human and climate factors and their interaction were taken to explain the AGB variance by a PLS-SEM developed for the grassland ecosystem in Inner Mongolia,China.Results indicated that 65.5% of the AGB variance could be explained by the human and climate factors and their interaction.The case study showed that the human and climate factors imposed a significant and negative impact on the AGB and that their interaction alleviated to some extent the threat from the intensified human-climate pressure.The alleviation may be attributable to vegetation adaptation to high human-climate stresses,to human adaptation to climate conditions or/and to recent vegetation restoration programs in the highly degraded areas.Furthermore,the AGB response to the human and climate factors modeled by GWR exhibited significant spatial variations.This study demonstrated that the combination of PLS-SEM and GWR model is feasible to investigate the cause-effect relation in socio-ecological systems.

  7. Representative Agricultural Pathways: A Trans-Disciplinary Approach to Agricultural Model Inter-comparison, Improvement, Climate Impact Assessment and Stakeholder Engagement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antle, J. M.; Valdivia, R. O.; Claessens, L.; Nelson, G. C.; Rosenzweig, C.; Ruane, A. C.; Vervoort, J.

    2013-12-01

    The global change research community has recognized that new pathway and scenario concepts are needed to implement impact and vulnerability assessment that is logically consistent across local, regional and global scales. For impact and vulnerability assessment, new socio-economic pathway and scenario concepts are being developed. Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs) are designed to extend global pathways to provide the detail needed for global and regional assessment of agricultural systems. In addition, research by the Agricultural Model Inter-comparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) shows that RAPs provide a powerful way to engage stakeholders in climate-related research throughout the research process and in communication of research results. RAPs are based on the integrated assessment framework developed by AgMIP. This framework shows that both bio-physical and socio-economic drivers are essential components of agricultural pathways and logically precede the definition of adaptation and mitigation scenarios that embody associated capabilities and challenges. This approach is based on a trans-disciplinary process for designing pathways and then translating them into parameter sets for bio-physical and economic models that are components of agricultural integrated assessments of climate impact, adaptation and mitigation. RAPs must be designed to be part of a logically consistent set of drivers and outcomes from global to regional and local. Global RAPs are designed to be consistent with higher-level global socio-economic pathways, but add key agricultural drivers such as agricultural growth trends that are not specified in more general pathways, as illustrated in a recent inter-comparison of global agricultural models. To create pathways at regional or local scales, further detail is needed. At this level, teams of scientists and other experts with knowledge of the agricultural systems and regions work together through a step-wise process. Experiences

  8. Public participation in Malawi's environmental impact assessment ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Since the adoption of the Environmental Management Act of 1996, Malawi has been using environmental impact assessment (EIA) as a tool for predicting and assessing the impact of development projects on the environment. This study assessed the extent of public participation in Malawi's EIA process. Desktop study of ...

  9. Development of an instrument to assess the impact of an enhanced experiential model on pharmacy students' learning opportunities, skills and attitudes: A retrospective comparative-experimentalist study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Collins John B

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Pharmacy schools across North America have been charged to ensure their students are adequately skilled in the principles and practices of pharmaceutical care. Despite this mandate, a large percentage of students experience insufficient opportunities to practice the activities, tasks and processes essential to pharmaceutical care. The objective of this retrospective study of pharmacy students was to: (1 as "proof of concept", test the overall educational impact of an enhanced advanced pharmacy practice experiential (APPE model on student competencies; (2 develop an instrument to measure students' and preceptors' experiences; and (3 assess the psychometric properties of the instrument. Methods A comparative-experimental design, using student and preceptor surveys, was used to evaluate the impact of the enhanced community-based APPE over the traditional APPE model. The study was grounded in a 5-stage learning model: (1 an enhanced learning climate leads to (2 better utilization of learning opportunities, including (3 more frequent student/patient consultation, then to (4 improved skills acquisition, thence to (5 more favorable attitudes toward pharmaceutical care practice. The intervention included a one-day preceptor workshop, a comprehensive on-site student orientation and extending the experience from two four-week experiences in different pharmacies to one eight-week in one pharmacy. Results The 35 student and 38 preceptor survey results favored the enhanced model; with students conducting many more patient consultations and reporting greater skills improvement. In addition, the student self-assessment suggested changes in attitudes favoring pharmaceutical care principles. Psychometric testing showed the instrument to be sensitive, valid and reliable in ascertaining differences between the enhanced and traditional arms. Conclusion The enhanced experiential model positively affects learning opportunities and competency

  10. What is Health Impact Assessment?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmet Soysal

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Health Impact Assessment (HIA was disseminated by World Health Organization (WHO European Region in Gothenburg consensus paper in 1999. In this consensus, HIA is defined as ‘a combination of procedures, methods and tools by which a policy, program or project may be judged as to its potential effects on the health of population and the distribution of those effects within the population’. HIA was accepted as a goal for 4th phase of healthy city projects between 2003- 2008. HIA is a new process for our country and especially municipal boroughs, local authorities interest with it. There is no legal base for HIA in our country. EIA practices conducted since 1993 showed us that, environmental and public health was postponed. Functional and decisive implementation of HAI depends on legal basis and national acceptance. If legal basis is supplied, society must take care about it, work for strict application and have to put a crimp in going back. [TAF Prev Med Bull 2010; 9(6.000: 689-694

  11. Integrated Environmental Assessment Modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guardanz, R; Gimeno, B S; Bermejo, V; Elvira, S; Martin, F; Palacios, M; Rodriguez, E; Donaire, I [Ciemat, Madrid (Spain)

    2000-07-01

    This report describes the results of the Spanish participation in the project Coupling CORINAIR data to cost-effect emission reduction strategies based on critical threshold. (EU/LIFE97/ENV/FIN/336). The subproject has focused on three tasks. Develop tools to improve knowledge on the spatial and temporal details of emissions of air pollutants in Spain. Exploit existing experimental information on plant response to air pollutants in temperate ecosystem and Integrate these findings in a modelling framework that can asses with more accuracy the impact of air pollutants to temperate ecosystems. The results obtained during the execution of this project have significantly improved the models of the impact of alternative emission control strategies on ecosystems and crops in the Iberian Peninsula. (Author) 375 refs.

  12. Integrating subsistence practice and species distribution modeling: assessing invasive elodea's potential impact on Native Alaskan subsistence of Chinook salmon and whitefish

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luizza, Matthew W.; Evangelista, Paul H.; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; West, Amanda; Stewart, Heather

    2016-07-01

    Alaska has one of the most rapidly changing climates on earth and is experiencing an accelerated rate of human disturbance, including resource extraction and transportation infrastructure development. Combined, these factors increase the state's vulnerability to biological invasion, which can have acute negative impacts on ecological integrity and subsistence practices. Of growing concern is the spread of Alaska's first documented freshwater aquatic invasive plant Elodea spp. (elodea). In this study, we modeled the suitable habitat of elodea using global and state-specific species occurrence records and environmental variables, in concert with an ensemble of model algorithms. Furthermore, we sought to incorporate local subsistence concerns by using Native Alaskan knowledge and available statewide subsistence harvest data to assess the potential threat posed by elodea to Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and whitefish ( Coregonus nelsonii) subsistence. State models were applied to future climate (2040-2059) using five general circulation models best suited for Alaska. Model evaluations indicated that our results had moderate to strong predictability, with area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve values above 0.80 and classification accuracies ranging from 66 to 89 %. State models provided a more robust assessment of elodea habitat suitability. These ensembles revealed different levels of management concern statewide, based on the interaction of fish subsistence patterns, known spawning and rearing sites, and elodea habitat suitability, thus highlighting regions with additional need for targeted monitoring. Our results suggest that this approach can hold great utility for invasion risk assessments and better facilitate the inclusion of local stakeholder concerns in conservation planning and management.

  13. Integrating subsistence practice and species distribution modeling: assessing invasive elodea’s potential impact on Native Alaskan subsistence of Chinook salmon and whitefish

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luizza, Matthew; Evangelista, Paul; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; West, Amanda; Stewart, Heather

    2016-01-01

    Alaska has one of the most rapidly changing climates on earth and is experiencing an accelerated rate of human disturbance, including resource extraction and transportation infrastructure development. Combined, these factors increase the state’s vulnerability to biological invasion, which can have acute negative impacts on ecological integrity and subsistence practices. Of growing concern is the spread of Alaska’s first documented freshwater aquatic invasive plant Elodea spp. (elodea). In this study, we modeled the suitable habitat of elodea using global and state-specific species occurrence records and environmental variables, in concert with an ensemble of model algorithms. Furthermore, we sought to incorporate local subsistence concerns by using Native Alaskan knowledge and available statewide subsistence harvest data to assess the potential threat posed by elodea to Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and whitefish (Coregonus nelsonii) subsistence. State models were applied to future climate (2040–2059) using five general circulation models best suited for Alaska. Model evaluations indicated that our results had moderate to strong predictability, with area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve values above 0.80 and classification accuracies ranging from 66 to 89 %. State models provided a more robust assessment of elodea habitat suitability. These ensembles revealed different levels of management concern statewide, based on the interaction of fish subsistence patterns, known spawning and rearing sites, and elodea habitat suitability, thus highlighting regions with additional need for targeted monitoring. Our results suggest that this approach can hold great utility for invasion risk assessments and better facilitate the inclusion of local stakeholder concerns in conservation planning and management.

  14. Rainfall-runoff modelling of the Okavango River catchment to assess impacts of land use change on runoff and downstream ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milzow, Christian; Bauer-Gottwein, Peter

    2010-05-01

    The competition between human water use and ecosystem water use is one of the major challenges for water resources management at the global scale. We analyse the situation for the Okavango River basin of southern Africa. The Okavango River is representative for many large rivers throughout the developing world in that it is ungauged and poorly studied. The Okavango basin - spanning over Angola, Namibia and Botswana - represents a multi-objective problem in an international setting. Economic benefits of agricultural development and conservation of ecosystem services call for opposed actions. A semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model of the Okavango catchment is set up using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The model is sufficiently physically based to simulate the impact on runoff of extent of agricultural use, crop types and management practices. Precipitation and temperature inputs are taken from datasets covering large parts of the globe. The methodology can thus easily be applied for other ungauged catchments. For temperature we use the ERA-Interim reanalysis product of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and for precipitation the Famine Early Warning Systems Network data (FEWS-Net). Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) data resulted in poor model performance compared to the FEWS-Net data. Presently, the upstream catchment in Angola is largely pristine and agriculture is basically restricted to dry land subsistence farming. But economic growth in Angola is likely to result in agricultural development and consequent impacts on catchment runoff. Land use scenarios that are simulated include large scale irrigated agriculture with water extractions from the river and the shallow aquifer. Climate change impacts are also studied and compared to land use change impacts. The downstream part of the basin consists of the large Okavango Wetlands, which are a biodiversity hotspot of global importance and, through tourism, an important

  15. Species for the screening assessment. Columbia River Comprehensive Impact Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Becker, J.M.; Brandt, C.A.; Dauble, D.D.; Maughan, A.D.; O'Neil, T.K.

    1996-03-01

    Because of past nuclear production operations along the Columbia River, there is intense public and tribal interest in assessing any residual Hanford Site related contamination along the river from the Hanford Reach to the Pacific Ocean. The Columbia River Comprehensive Impact Assessment was proposed to address these concerns. The assessment of the Columbia River is being conducted in phases. The initial phase is a screening assessment of the risk, which addresses current environmental conditions for a range of potential uses. One component of the screening assessment estimates the risk from contaminants in the Columbia River to the environment. The objective of the ecological risk assessment is to determine whether contaminants from the Columbia River pose a significant threat to selected receptor species that exist in the river and riparian communities of the study area. This report (1) identifies the receptor species selected for the screening assessment of ecological risk and (2) describes the selection process. The species selection process consisted of two tiers. In Tier 1, a master species list was developed that included many plant and animal species known to occur in the aquatic and riparian systems of the Columbia River between Priest Rapids Dam and the Columbia River estuary. This master list was reduced to 368 species that occur in the study area (Priest Rapids Dam to McNary Dam). In Tier 2, the 181 Tier 1 species were qualitatively ranked based on a scoring of their potential exposure and sensitivity to contaminants using a conceptual exposure model for the study area

  16. Species for the screening assessment. Columbia River Comprehensive Impact Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Becker, J.M.; Brandt, C.A.; Dauble, D.D.; Maughan, A.D.; O`Neil, T.K.

    1996-03-01

    Because of past nuclear production operations along the Columbia River, there is intense public and tribal interest in assessing any residual Hanford Site related contamination along the river from the Hanford Reach to the Pacific Ocean. The Columbia River Comprehensive Impact Assessment was proposed to address these concerns. The assessment of the Columbia River is being conducted in phases. The initial phase is a screening assessment of the risk, which addresses current environmental conditions for a range of potential uses. One component of the screening assessment estimates the risk from contaminants in the Columbia River to the environment. The objective of the ecological risk assessment is to determine whether contaminants from the Columbia River pose a significant threat to selected receptor species that exist in the river and riparian communities of the study area. This report (1) identifies the receptor species selected for the screening assessment of ecological risk and (2) describes the selection process. The species selection process consisted of two tiers. In Tier 1, a master species list was developed that included many plant and animal species known to occur in the aquatic and riparian systems of the Columbia River between Priest Rapids Dam and the Columbia River estuary. This master list was reduced to 368 species that occur in the study area (Priest Rapids Dam to McNary Dam). In Tier 2, the 181 Tier 1 species were qualitatively ranked based on a scoring of their potential exposure and sensitivity to contaminants using a conceptual exposure model for the study area.

  17. Biogeography of seabirds within a high-latitude ecosystem: Use of a data-assimilative ocean model to assess impacts of mesoscale oceanography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santora, Jarrod A.; Eisner, Lisa B.; Kuletz, Kathy J.; Ladd, Carol; Renner, Martin; Hunt, George L., Jr.

    2018-02-01

    We assessed the biogeography of seabirds within the Bering Sea Large Marine Ecosystem (LME), a highly productive and extensive continental shelf system that supports important fishing grounds. Our objective was to investigate how physical ocean conditions impact distribution of seabirds along latitudinal gradients. We tested the hypothesis that seabird biogeographic patterns reflect differences in ocean conditions relating to the boundary between northern and southern shelf ecosystems. We used a grid-based approach to develop spatial means (1975-2014) of summertime seabird species' abundance, species' richness, and a multivariate seabird assemblage index to examine species composition. Seabird indices were linked to ocean conditions derived from a data-assimilative oceanographic model to quantify relationships between physics (e.g., temperature, salinity, and current velocity), bathymetry and seabirds along latitudinal gradients. Species assemblages reflected two main sources of variation, a mode for elevated richness and abundance, and a mode related to partitioning of inner/middle shelf species from outer shelf-slope species. Overall, species richness and abundance increased markedly at higher latitudes. We found that latitudinal changes in species assemblages, richness and abundance indicates a major shift around 59-60°N within inner and middle shelf regions, but not in the outer shelf. Within the middle shelf, latitudinal shifts in seabird assemblages strongly related to hydrographic structure, as opposed to the inner and outer shelf waters. As expected, elevated species richness and abundance was associated with major breeding colonies and within important coastal foraging areas. Our study also indicates that seabird observations supported the conclusion that the oceanographic model captured mesoscale variability of ocean conditions important for understanding seabird distributions and represents an important step for evaluating modeling and empirical studies

  18. Radiation environmental impact assessment of copper exploitation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fan Guang; Wen Zhijian

    2010-01-01

    The radiation environmental impact of mineral exploitation on the surrounding environment has become a public concern. This paper presents the radiation environmental impact assessment of copper exploitation. Based on the project description and detailed investigations of surrounding environment, systematic radiation environmental impacts have been identified. The environmental impacts are assessed during both construction and operation phase. The environmental protection measures have also been proposed. The related conclusion and measures can play an active role in copper exploitation and environmental protection. (authors)

  19. Environmental impact assessment: Process and implementation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, S.Y.; Tsai, S.Y.

    1989-01-01

    In this paper, the procedures and issues regarding the preparation of an environmental impact assessment in accordance with the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) as promulgated by the US Congress in 1969 are discussed. NEPA procedures and requirements are covered in general, while particular attention is given to the preparation of the environmental impact assessment. Also included is a discussion of the social impact assessment. The aim of the social impact assessment is to address the social issues involved in enhancing public understanding of the hazardous risks, thereby mitigating any conflicts that may arise in the NEPA process. 3 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab

  20. Calculating Impacts of Energy Standards on Energy Demand in U.S. Buildings under Uncertainty with an Integrated Assessment Model: Technical Background Data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scott, Michael J. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Daly, Don S. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Hathaway, John E. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Lansing, Carina S. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Liu, Ying [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); McJeon, Haewon C. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Moss, Richard H. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Patel, Pralit L. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Peterson, Marty J. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Rice, Jennie S. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Zhou, Yuyu [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2014-12-06

    This report presents data and assumptions employed in an application of PNNL’s Global Change Assessment Model with a newly-developed Monte Carlo analysis capability. The model is used to analyze the impacts of more aggressive U.S. residential and commercial building-energy codes and equipment standards on energy consumption and energy service costs at the state level, explicitly recognizing uncertainty in technology effectiveness and cost, socioeconomics, presence or absence of carbon prices, and climate impacts on energy demand. The report provides a summary of how residential and commercial buildings are modeled, together with assumptions made for the distributions of state–level population, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per worker, efficiency and cost of residential and commercial energy equipment by end use, and efficiency and cost of residential and commercial building shells. The cost and performance of equipment and of building shells are reported separately for current building and equipment efficiency standards and for more aggressive standards. The report also details assumptions concerning future improvements brought about by projected trends in technology.

  1. MODELKEY - Models for assessing and forecasting the impact of environmental key pollutants on freshwater and marine ecosystems and biodiversity

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Brack, W.; Bakker, J.; de Deckere, E.; Deerenberg, C.; van Gils, J.; Hein, M.; Jurajda, Pavel; Kooijman, B.; Lamoree, M.; Lek, S.; de Alda, M. J. L.; Marcomini, A.; Munoz, I.; Rattei, S.; Segner, H.; Thomas, K.; von der Ohe, P. C.; Westrich, B.; de Zwart, D.; Schmitt-Jansen, M.

    2005-01-01

    Roč. 12, č. 5 (2005), s. 252-256 ISSN 0944-1344 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60930519 Keywords : biodiversity * EU- Projects * fish communities Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 1.518, year: 2005

  2. A Probabilistic Asteroid Impact Risk Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathias, Donovan L.; Wheeler, Lorien F.; Dotson, Jessie L.

    2016-01-01

    Asteroid threat assessment requires the quantification of both the impact likelihood and resulting consequence across the range of possible events. This paper presents a probabilistic asteroid impact risk (PAIR) assessment model developed for this purpose. The model incorporates published impact frequency rates with state-of-the-art consequence assessment tools, applied within a Monte Carlo framework that generates sets of impact scenarios from uncertain parameter distributions. Explicit treatment of atmospheric entry is included to produce energy deposition rates that account for the effects of thermal ablation and object fragmentation. These energy deposition rates are used to model the resulting ground damage, and affected populations are computed for the sampled impact locations. The results for each scenario are aggregated into a distribution of potential outcomes that reflect the range of uncertain impact parameters, population densities, and strike probabilities. As an illustration of the utility of the PAIR model, the results are used to address the question of what minimum size asteroid constitutes a threat to the population. To answer this question, complete distributions of results are combined with a hypothetical risk tolerance posture to provide the minimum size, given sets of initial assumptions. Model outputs demonstrate how such questions can be answered and provide a means for interpreting the effect that input assumptions and uncertainty can have on final risk-based decisions. Model results can be used to prioritize investments to gain knowledge in critical areas or, conversely, to identify areas where additional data has little effect on the metrics of interest.

  3. Multistate matrix population model to assess the contributions and impacts on population abundance of domestic cats in urban areas including owned cats, unowned cats, and cats in shelters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coe, Jason B.

    2018-01-01

    Concerns over cat homelessness, over-taxed animal shelters, public health risks, and environmental impacts has raised attention on urban-cat populations. To truly understand cat population dynamics, the collective population of owned cats, unowned cats, and cats in the shelter system must be considered simultaneously because each subpopulation contributes differently to the overall population of cats in a community (e.g., differences in neuter rates, differences in impacts on wildlife) and cats move among categories through human interventions (e.g., adoption, abandonment). To assess this complex socio-ecological system, we developed a multistate matrix model of cats in urban areas that include owned cats, unowned cats (free-roaming and feral), and cats that move through the shelter system. Our model requires three inputs—location, number of human dwellings, and urban area—to provide testable predictions of cat abundance for any city in North America. Model-predicted population size of unowned cats in seven Canadian cities were not significantly different than published estimates (p = 0.23). Model-predicted proportions of sterile feral cats did not match observed sterile cat proportions for six USA cities (p = 0.001). Using a case study from Guelph, Ontario, Canada, we compared model-predicted to empirical estimates of cat abundance in each subpopulation and used perturbation analysis to calculate relative sensitivity of vital rates to cat abundance to demonstrate how management or mismanagement in one portion of the population could have repercussions across all portions of the network. Our study provides a general framework to consider cat population abundance in urban areas and, with refinement that includes city-specific parameter estimates and modeling, could provide a better understanding of population dynamics of cats in our communities. PMID:29489854

  4. Multistate matrix population model to assess the contributions and impacts on population abundance of domestic cats in urban areas including owned cats, unowned cats, and cats in shelters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flockhart, D T Tyler; Coe, Jason B

    2018-01-01

    Concerns over cat homelessness, over-taxed animal shelters, public health risks, and environmental impacts has raised attention on urban-cat populations. To truly understand cat population dynamics, the collective population of owned cats, unowned cats, and cats in the shelter system must be considered simultaneously because each subpopulation contributes differently to the overall population of cats in a community (e.g., differences in neuter rates, differences in impacts on wildlife) and cats move among categories through human interventions (e.g., adoption, abandonment). To assess this complex socio-ecological system, we developed a multistate matrix model of cats in urban areas that include owned cats, unowned cats (free-roaming and feral), and cats that move through the shelter system. Our model requires three inputs-location, number of human dwellings, and urban area-to provide testable predictions of cat abundance for any city in North America. Model-predicted population size of unowned cats in seven Canadian cities were not significantly different than published estimates (p = 0.23). Model-predicted proportions of sterile feral cats did not match observed sterile cat proportions for six USA cities (p = 0.001). Using a case study from Guelph, Ontario, Canada, we compared model-predicted to empirical estimates of cat abundance in each subpopulation and used perturbation analysis to calculate relative sensitivity of vital rates to cat abundance to demonstrate how management or mismanagement in one portion of the population could have repercussions across all portions of the network. Our study provides a general framework to consider cat population abundance in urban areas and, with refinement that includes city-specific parameter estimates and modeling, could provide a better understanding of population dynamics of cats in our communities.

  5. Is Environmental Impact Assessment fulfilling its potential?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Sanne Vammen

    2014-01-01

    fuel with CO2-neutral energy sources. A variety of these projects are subject to environmental impact assessment (EIA), which raises the following questions: What role does an impact assessment play? When is the project environmentally friendly? How are climate change-related impacts assessed......One of the topics receiving much attention in recent years is climate change and the potential of its integration in impact assessment, both in terms of achieving mitigation and adaptation. Renewable energy projects are part of the efforts to mitigate climate change, replacing the use of fossil...... adaptation is absent. Also, the results show an emphasis on positive impacts in the reports, and in a few cases discussions of enhancements. Identification and assessment of negative climate change impacts are less apparent. This leads to a discussion of the results in the light of the purpose of EIA....

  6. Testing landscape modeling approaches for environmental impact assessment of mining land use on grizzly bears (Ursus arctos horribilis) in the foothills region of west central Alberta

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Symbaluk, M.D. [Elk Valley Coal Corp., Hinton, AB (Canada). Cardinal River Operations

    2008-07-01

    The Cheviot open pit coal mine is located on the front range of the Rocky Mountains in Alberta. The environmental impact assessment (EIA) requirements for the mining project included an assessment of the cumulative effects of past, existing, and immanent activities on a 3040 km{sup 2} study area radiating approximately 25 km around the proposed project area. The grizzly bear was identified as a flagship valued ecosystem component (VEC) for assessing the regional cumulative effects of the proposed Cheviot project. In this portion of the study, a grizzly bear habitat effectiveness model was used to monitor grizzly bear response to mining land use in the study area. An investigation of grizzly bear movement paths prior to and during mine disturbances demonstrated that mining land use does not present significant barriers to grizzly bear activities. The study demonstrated the importance of using inductive modelling tools at appropriate scales, as well as the use of site-specific empirical data. It was concluded that continued monitoring of mining sites is needed to ensure that adaptive management processes are improved. A review of the Cheviot cumulative environmental effects (CEA) process was also provided. 17 refs., 1 fig.

  7. An integrated ecological modeling system for assessing impacts of multiple stressors on stream and riverine ecosystem services within river basins

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — We demonstrate a novel, spatially explicit assessment of the current condition of aquatic ecosystem services, with limited sensitivity analysis for the atmospheric...

  8. LCA of contaminated site remediation - integration of site-specific impact assessment of local toxic impacts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lemming, Gitte; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky; Chambon, Julie Claire Claudia

    2011-01-01

    impacts have typically been assessed using site-generic characterization models representing a continental scale and excluding the groundwater compartment. Soil contaminants have therefore generally been assigned as emissions to surface soil or surface water compartments. However, such site-generic...... assessments poorly reflect the fate of frequent soil contaminants such as chloroethenes as they exclude the groundwater compartment and assume that the main part escapes to the atmosphere. Another important limitation of the generic impact assessment models is that they do not include the formation......The environmental impacts from remediation can be divided into primary and secondary impacts. Primary impacts cover the local impacts associated with the on-site contamination, whereas the secondary impacts are impacts on the local, regional and global scale generated by the remediation activities...

  9. A class of non-linear exposure-response models suitable for health impact assessment applicable to large cohort studies of ambient air pollution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nasari, Masoud M; Szyszkowicz, Mieczysław; Chen, Hong; Crouse, Daniel; Turner, Michelle C; Jerrett, Michael; Pope, C Arden; Hubbell, Bryan; Fann, Neal; Cohen, Aaron; Gapstur, Susan M; Diver, W Ryan; Stieb, David; Forouzanfar, Mohammad H; Kim, Sun-Young; Olives, Casey; Krewski, Daniel; Burnett, Richard T

    2016-01-01

    The effectiveness of regulatory actions designed to improve air quality is often assessed by predicting changes in public health resulting from their implementation. Risk of premature mortality from long-term exposure to ambient air pollution is the single most important contributor to such assessments and is estimated from observational studies generally assuming a log-linear, no-threshold association between ambient concentrations and death. There has been only limited assessment of this assumption in part because of a lack of methods to estimate the shape of the exposure-response function in very large study populations. In this paper, we propose a new class of variable coefficient risk functions capable of capturing a variety of potentially non-linear associations which are suitable for health impact assessment. We construct the class by defining transformations of concentration as the product of either a linear or log-linear function of concentration multiplied by a logistic weighting function. These risk functions can be estimated using hazard regression survival models with currently available computer software and can accommodate large population-based cohorts which are increasingly being used for this purpose. We illustrate our modeling approach with two large cohort studies of long-term concentrations of ambient air pollution and mortality: the American Cancer Society Cancer Prevention Study II (CPS II) cohort and the Canadian Census Health and Environment Cohort (CanCHEC). We then estimate the number of deaths attributable to changes in fine particulate matter concentrations over the 2000 to 2010 time period in both Canada and the USA using both linear and non-linear hazard function models.

  10. Pairing Coral Geochemical Analyses with an Ecosystem Services Model to Assess Drivers and Impacts of Sediment Delivery within Micronesia's Largest Estuary, Ngeremeduu Bay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, S.; Dunbar, R. B.; Mucciarone, D.; Barkdull, M.

    2017-12-01

    Scientific tools assessing impacts to watershed and coastal ecosystem services, like those from land-use land conversion (LULC), are critical for sustainable land management strategies. Small island nations are particularly vulnerable to LULC threats, especially sediment delivery, given their small spatial size and reliance on natural resources. In the Republic of Palau, a small Pacific island country, three major land-use activities—construction, fires, and agriculture— have increased sediment delivery to important estuarine and coastal habitats (i.e., rivers, mangroves, coral reefs) over the past 30 years. This project examines the predictive capacity of an ecosystem services model, Natural Capital Project's InVEST, for sediment delivery using historic land-use and coral geochemical analysis. These refined model projections are used to assess ecosystem services tradeoffs under different future land development and management scenarios. Coral cores (20-41cm in length) were sampled along a high-to-low sedimentation gradient (i.e., near major rivers (high-impact) and ocean (low-impact)) in Micronesia's largest estuary, Ngeremeduu Bay. Isotopic indicators of seasonality (δ18O and δ13C values (% VPDB)) were used to construct the age model for each core. Barium, Manganese, and Yttrium were used as trace metal proxies for sedimentation and measured in each core using a laser ablation ICP-MS. Finally, the Natural Capital Project's InVEST sediment delivery model was paired with Geospatial data to examine the drivers of sediment delivery (i.e., construction, farms and fires) within these two watersheds. A thirty-year record of trace metal to calcium ratios in coral skeletons show a peak in sedimentation during 2006 and 2007, and in 2012. These results suggest historic peaks in sediment delivery correlating to large-scale road construction and support previous findings that Ngeremeduu Bay has reached a tipping point of retaining sediment. Natural Capital's project In

  11. Innovative energy technologies in energy-economy models: assessing economic, energy and environmental impacts of climate policy and technological change in Germany.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schumacher, K.

    2007-04-18

    Energy technologies and innovation are considered to play a crucial role in climate change mitigation. Yet, the representation of technologies in energy-economy models, which are used extensively to analyze the economic, energy and environmental impacts of alternative energy and climate policies, is rather limited. This dissertation presents advanced techniques of including technological innovations in energy-economy computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. New methods are explored and applied for improving the realism of energy production and consumption in such top-down models. The dissertation addresses some of the main criticism of general equilibrium models in the field of energy and climate policy analysis: The lack of detailed sectoral and technical disaggregation, the restricted view on innovation and technological change, and the lack of extended greenhouse gas mitigation options. The dissertation reflects on the questions of (1) how to introduce innovation and technological change in a computable general equilibrium model as well as (2) what additional and policy relevant information is gained from using these methodologies. Employing a new hybrid approach of incorporating technology-specific information for electricity generation and iron and steel production in a dynamic multi-sector computable equilibrium model it can be concluded that technology-specific effects are crucial for the economic assessment of climate policy, in particular the effects relating to process shifts and fuel input structure. Additionally, the dissertation shows that learning-by-doing in renewable energy takes place in the renewable electricity sector but is equally important in upstream sectors that produce technologies, i.e. machinery and equipment, for renewable electricity generation. The differentiation of learning effects in export sectors, such as renewable energy technologies, matters for the economic assessment of climate policies because of effects on international

  12. Site-dependent life-cycle impact assessment of acidification

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Potting, Josepha Maria Barbara; Schöpp, W.; Blok, Kornelis

    1998-01-01

    The lack of spatial differentiation in current life-cycle impact assessment (LCIA) affects the relevance of the assessed impact. This article first describes a framework for constructing factors relating the region of emission to the acidifying impact on its deposition areas. Next, these factors...... are established for 44 European regions with the help of the RAINS model, an integrated assessment model that combines information on regional emission levels with information on long-range atmospheric transport to estimate patterns of deposition and concentration for comparison with critical loads and thresholds...

  13. Assessing the impacts of 1.5°C global warming – simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Frieler, Katja; Betts, Richard; Burke, J.; Burke, Eleanor; Ciais, Philippe; Denvil, Sebastien; Deryng, Delphine; Ebi, Kristie; Eddy, Tyler; Emanuel, Kerry; Elliot, Joshua; Galbraith, Eric; Gosling, Simon N.; Halladay, Kate; Hattermann, F.; Hickler, T.; Hinkel, Jochen; Huber, Veronika; Jones, Chris D.; Krysanova, V.; Lange, Stefan; Lotze, Heike K.; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Mengel, Matthias; Mouratiadou, I.; Muller Schmied, Hannes; Ostberg, Sebastian; Piontek, Franziska; Popp, Alexander; Reyer, Christopher Paul Oliver; Schewe, Jacob; Stevanovic, Miodrag; Suzuki, T.; Thonicke, Kirsten; Tian, Hanqin; Tittensor, Derek P.; Vautard, Richard; Vliet, van M.T.H.; Warszawski, L.; Zhao, Fang

    2016-01-01

    In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a "special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial

  14. Assessment of impact due to entrainment of ichthyoplankton

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Horst, T.J.

    1975-01-01

    Three approaches to the assessment of impact associated with the entrainment of ichthyoplankton into power stations are discussed. The first is the estimation of the probability of mortality for those organisms entrained. The second is the assessment to the fish populations which have the egg and larvae life stages entrained. The third approach is the assessment of impact to the community or ecosystem. Some models are presented as examples for each of the three approaches. (U.S.)

  15. Old Dog New Tricks: Use of Point-based Crop Models in Grid-based Regional Assessment of Crop Management Technologies Impact on Future Food Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koo, J.; Wood, S.; Cenacchi, N.; Fisher, M.; Cox, C.

    2012-12-01

    HarvestChoice (harvestchoice.org) generates knowledge products to guide strategic investments to improve the productivity and profitability of smallholder farming systems in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). A keynote component of the HarvestChoice analytical framework is a grid-based overlay of SSA - a cropping simulation platform powered by process-based, crop models. Calibrated around the best available representation of cropping production systems in SSA, the simulation platform engages the DSSAT Crop Systems Model with the CENTURY Soil Organic Matter model (DSSAT-CENTURY) and provides a virtual experimentation module with which to explore the impact of a range of technological, managerial and environmental metrics on future crop productivity and profitability, as well as input use. For each of 5 (or 30) arc-minute grid cells in SSA, a stack of model input underlies it: datasets that cover soil properties and fertility, historic and future climate scenarios and farmers' management practices; all compiled from analyses of existing global and regional databases and consultations with other CGIAR centers. Running a simulation model is not always straightforward, especially when certain cropping systems or management practices are not even practiced by resource-poor farmers yet (e.g., precision agriculture) or they were never included in the existing simulation framework (e.g., water harvesting). In such cases, we used DSSAT-CENTURY as a function to iteratively estimate relative responses of cropping systems to technology-driven changes in water and nutrient balances compared to zero-adoption by farmers, while adjusting model input parameters to best mimic farmers' implementation of technologies in the field. We then fed the results of the simulation into to the economic and food trade model framework, IMPACT, to assess the potential implications on future food security. The outputs of the overall simulation analyses are packaged as a web-accessible database and published

  16. Environmental impact assessment in the Nordic Countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Broden, K.; Palsson, S.E.; Poroddsson, P.

    2000-12-01

    A meeting on Environmental Impact Assessment has been held in Iceland, September 2-6, 2000. It was held within the framework of the project NKS/SOS-3 (Radioactive waste), subproject NKS/SOS-3.1 (Environmental Impact Assessment). The meeting included presentations, discussions and a study trip to the Egilsstadir and Myvatn districts. (au)

  17. Assessment of the possible future climatic impact of carbon dioxide increases based on a coupled one-dimensional atmospheric-oceanic model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hunt, B.G.; Wells, N.C.

    1979-01-01

    A radiative-convective equilibrium model of the atmosphere has been coupled with a mixed layer model of the ocean to investigate the response of this one-dimensional system to increasing carbon dioxide amounts in the atmosphere. For global mean conditions a surface temperature rise of about 2 0 K was obtained for a doubling of the carbon dioxide amount, in reasonable agreement with the commonly accepted results of Manabe and Wetherald. This temperature rise was essentially invariant with season and indicates that including a shallow (300 m) ocean slab in this problem does not basically alter previous assessments. While the mixed layer depth of the ocean was only very slightly changed by the temperature increase, which extended throughout the depth of the mixed layer, the impact of this increase on the overall behavior of the ocean warrants further study. A calculation was also made of the temporal variation of the sea surface temperature for three possible carbon dioxide growth rates starting from an initial carbon dioxide content of 300 ppm. This indicated that the thermal inertia of the slab ocean provides a time lag of 8 years in the sea surface temperature response compared to a land situation. This is not considered to be of great significance as regards the likely future climatic impact of carbon dioxide increase

  18. Impacts of extreme heat and drought on crop yields in China: an assessment by using the DLEM-AG2 model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, J.; Yang, J.; Pan, S.; Tian, H.

    2016-12-01

    China is not only one of the major agricultural production countries with the largest population in the world, but it is also the most susceptible to climate change and extreme events. Much concern has been raised about how extreme climate has affected crop yield, which is crucial for China's food supply security. However, the quantitative assessment of extreme heat and drought impacts on crop yield in China has rarely been investigated. By using the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM-AG2), a highly integrated process-based ecosystem model with crop-specific simulation, here we quantified spatial and temporal patterns of extreme climatic heat and drought stress and their impacts on the yields of major food crops (rice, wheat, maize, and soybean) across China during 1981-2015, and further investigated the underlying mechanisms. Simulated results showed that extreme heat and drought stress significantly reduced national cereal production and increased the yield gaps between potential yield and rain-fed yield. The drought stress was the primary factor to reduce crop yields in the semi-arid and arid regions, and extreme heat stress slightly aggravated the yield loss. The yield gap between potential yield and rain-fed yield was larger at locations with lower precipitation. Our results suggest that a large exploitable yield gap in response to extreme climatic heat-drought stress offers an opportunity to increase productivity in China by optimizing agronomic practices, such as irrigation, fertilizer use, sowing density, and sowing date.

  19. GIS based procedure of cumulative environmental impact assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balakrishna Reddy, M; Blah, Baiantimon

    2009-07-01

    Scale and spatial limits of impact assessment study in a GIS platform are two very important factors that could have a bearing on the genuineness and quality of impact assessment. While effect of scale has been documented and well understood, no significant study has been carried out on spatial considerations in an impact assessment study employing GIS technique. A novel technique of impact assessment demonstrable through GIS approach termed hereby as 'spatial data integrated GIS impact assessment method (SGIAM)' is narrated in this paper. The technique makes a fundamental presumption that the importance of environmental impacts is dependent, among other things, on spatial distribution of the effects of the proposed action and of the affected receptors in a study area. For each environmental component considered (e.g., air quality), impact indices are calculated through aggregation of impact indicators which are measures of the severity of the impact. The presence and spread of environmental descriptors are suitably quantified through modeling techniques and depicted. The environmental impact index is calculated from data exported from ArcINFO, thus giving significant importance to spatial data in the impact assessment exercise.

  20. A stepwise approach for introducing numerical modeling in Environmental Engineering MSc unit: The impact of clear assessment criteria and detailed feedback

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosolem, R.; Pritchard, J.

    2017-12-01

    An important aspect for the new generation of hydrologists and water resources managers is the understanding of hydrological processes through the application of numerical environmental models. Despite its importance, teaching numerical modeling subjects to young students in our MSc Water and Environment Management programme has been difficult, for instance, due to the wide range of student background and lack or poor contact with numerical modeling tools in the past. In previous years, this numerical skills concept has been introduced as a project assignment in our Terrestrial Hydrometeorology unit. However, previous efforts have shown non-optimal engagement by students with often signs of lack of interest or anxiety. Given our initial experience with this unit, we decided to make substantial changes to the coursework format with the aim to introduce a more efficient learning environment to the students. The proposed changes include: (1) a clear presentation and discussion of the assessment criteria at the beginning of the unit, (2) a stepwise approach in which students use our learning environment to acquire knowledge for individual components of the model step-by-step, and (3) access to timely and detailed feedback allowing for particular steps to be retraced or retested. In order to understand the overall impact on assessment and feedback, we carried out two surveys at the beginning and end of the module. Our results indicate a positive impact to student learning experience, as the students have clearly benefited from the early discussion on assignment criteria and appeared to have correctly identified the skills and knowledge required to carry out the assignment. In addition, we have observed a substantial increase in the quality of the reports. Our results results support that student engagement has increased since changes to the format of the coursework were introduced. Interestingly, we also observed a positive impact on the assignment to the final exam

  1. AIDA: Asteroid Impact & Deflection Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, A. F.; Galvez, A.; Carnelli, I.; Michel, P.; Rivkin, A.; Reed, C.

    2012-12-01

    To protect the Earth from a hazardous asteroid impact, various mitigation methods have been proposed, including deflection of the asteroid by a spacecraft impact. AIDA, consisting of two mission elements, the Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) and the Asteroid Impact Monitoring (AIM) mission, is a demonstration of asteroid deflection. To date, there has been no such demonstration, and there is major uncertainty in the result of a spacecraft impact onto an asteroid, that is, the amount of deflection produced by a given momentum input from the impact. This uncertainty is in part due to unknown physical properties of the asteroid surface, such as porosity and strength, and in part due to poorly understood impact physics such that the momentum carried off by ejecta is highly uncertain. A first mission to demonstrate asteroid deflection would not only be a major step towards gaining the capability to mitigate an asteroid hazard, but in addition it would return unique information on an asteroid's strength, other surface properties, and internal structure. This information return would be highly relevant to future human exploration of asteroids. We report initial results of the AIDA joint mission concept study undertaken by the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory and ESA with support from NASA centers including Goddard, Johnson and Jet Propulsion Laboratory. For AIDA, the DART spacecraft impactor study is coordinated with an ESA study of the AIM mission, which would rendezvous with the same asteroid to measure effects of the impact. Unlike the previous Don Quijote mission study performed by ESA in 2005-2007, DART envisions an impactor spacecraft to intercept the secondary member of a binary near-Earth asteroid. DART includes ground-based observations to measure the deflection independently of the rendezvous spacecraft observations from AIM, which also measures deflection and provides detailed characterization of the target asteroid. The joint mission AIDA

  2. Energy recovery potential and life cycle impact assessment of municipal solid waste management technologies in Asian countries using ELP model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pandyaswargo, Andante Hadi; Onoda, Hiroshi; Nagata, Katsuya [Waseda Univ., Saitama (Japan). Graduate School of Environment and Energy Engineering

    2012-11-01

    Natural resource scarcity and the effects of environmental destruction have pushed societies to use and reuse resources more efficiently. Waste should no longer be seen as a burden but rather as another source of material such as energy fuel. This study analyzes the potential of three waste management technologies - incineration with energy recovery, composting, and sanitary landfill gas collection - as ways to recover energy and material from municipal solid waste. The study applies the environmental load point (ELP) method and utilizes municipal waste characteristics and composition from India, Indonesia, and China as case studies. The ELP methodology employs integrated weighting in the quantification process to get a one-unit result. This study particularly uses analytic hierarchical process questionnaires to get the weighting value of the nine impact categories: energy depletion, global warming, ozone depletion, resource consumption, ecosystem influence, water pollution, waste disposal, air pollution, and acid rain. The results show that the scenario which includes composting organic waste and sanitary landfill with gas collection for energy recovery has medium environmental impact and the highest practicability. The optimum material and energy potential is from the Chinese case study in which 254 tonnes of compost fertilizer and 60 MWh of electricity is the estimated output for every 1,000 tonnes of waste treated. (orig.)

  3. Population models for Greater Snow Geese: a comparison of different approaches to assess potential impacts of harvest

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gauthier, G.

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available Demographic models, which are a natural extension of capture-recapture (CR methodology, are a powerful tool to guide decisions when managing wildlife populations. We compare three different modelling approaches to evaluate the effect of increased harvest on the population growth of Greater Snow Geese (Chen caerulescens atlantica. Our first approach is a traditional matrix model where survival was reduced to simulate increased harvest. We included environmental stochasticity in the matrix projection model by simulating good, average, and bad years to account for the large inter-annual variation in fecundity and first-year survival, a common feature of birds nesting in the Arctic. Our second approach is based on the elasticity (or relative sensitivity of population growth rate (lambda to changes in survival as simple functions of generation time. Generation time was obtained from the mean transition matrix based on the observed proportion of good, average and bad years between 1985 and 1998. If we assume that hunting mortality is additive to natural mortality, then a simple formula predicts changes in lambda as a function of changes in harvest rate. This second approach can be viewed as a simplification of the matrix model because it uses formal sensitivity results derived from population projection. Our third, and potentially more powerful approach, uses the Kalman Filter to combine information on demographic parameters, i.e. the population mechanisms summarized in a transition matrix model, and the census information (i.e. annual survey within an overall Gaussian likelihood. The advantage of this approach is that it minimizes process and measured uncertainties associated with both the census and demographic parameters based on the variance of each estimate. This third approach, in contrast to the second, can be viewed as an extension of the matrix model, by combining its results with the independent census information.

  4. Integrated Assessment Model Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, S. J.; Clarke, L.; Edmonds, J. A.; Weyant, J. P.

    2012-12-01

    Integrated assessment models of climate change (IAMs) are widely used to provide insights into the dynamics of the coupled human and socio-economic system, including emission mitigation analysis and the generation of future emission scenarios. Similar to the climate modeling community, the integrated assessment community has a two decade history of model inter-comparison, which has served as one of the primary venues for model evaluation and confirmation. While analysis of historical trends in the socio-economic system has long played a key role in diagnostics of future scenarios from IAMs, formal hindcast experiments are just now being contemplated as evaluation exercises. Some initial thoughts on setting up such IAM evaluation experiments are discussed. Socio-economic systems do not follow strict physical laws, which means that evaluation needs to take place in a context, unlike that of physical system models, in which there are few fixed, unchanging relationships. Of course strict validation of even earth system models is not possible (Oreskes etal 2004), a fact borne out by the inability of models to constrain the climate sensitivity. Energy-system models have also been grappling with some of the same questions over the last quarter century. For example, one of "the many questions in the energy field that are waiting for answers in the next 20 years" identified by Hans Landsberg in 1985 was "Will the price of oil resume its upward movement?" Of course we are still asking this question today. While, arguably, even fewer constraints apply to socio-economic systems, numerous historical trends and patterns have been identified, although often only in broad terms, that are used to guide the development of model components, parameter ranges, and scenario assumptions. IAM evaluation exercises are expected to provide useful information for interpreting model results and improving model behavior. A key step is the recognition of model boundaries, that is, what is inside

  5. Strengthening the link between climate, hydrological and species distribution modeling to assess the impacts of climate change on freshwater biodiversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tisseuil, C; Vrac, M; Grenouillet, G; Wade, A J; Gevrey, M; Oberdorff, T; Grodwohl, J-B; Lek, S

    2012-05-01

    To understand the resilience of aquatic ecosystems to environmental change, it is important to determine how multiple, related environmental factors, such as near-surface air temperature and river flow, will change during the next century. This study develops a novel methodology that combines statistical downscaling and fish species distribution modeling, to enhance the understanding of how global climate changes (modeled by global climate models at coarse-resolution) may affect local riverine fish diversity. The novelty of this work is the downscaling framework developed to provide suitable future projections of fish habitat descriptors, focusing particularly on the hydrology which has been rarely considered in previous studies. The proposed modeling framework was developed and tested in a major European system, the Adour-Garonne river basin (SW France, 116,000 km(2)), which covers distinct hydrological and thermal regions from the Pyrenees to the Atlantic coast. The simulations suggest that, by 2100, the mean annual stream flow is projected to decrease by approximately 15% and temperature to increase by approximately 1.2 °C, on average. As consequence, the majority of cool- and warm-water fish species is projected to expand their geographical range within the basin while the few cold-water species will experience a reduction in their distribution. The limitations and potential benefits of the proposed modeling approach are discussed. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Economic impact of clinical mastitis in a dairy herd assessed by stochastic simulation using different methods to model yield losses

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hagnestam-Nielsen, Christel; Østergaard, Søren

    2009-01-01

    The main aim of the present study was to examine the economic consequences of a reduction in the incidence of clinical mastitis (CM) at herd level under current Swedish farming conditions. A second objective was to ask whether the estimated cost of CM alters depending upon whether the model...... with 150 cows (9000 kg of energy-corrected milk per cow-year). Four herd types, defined by production level and reproductive performance, were modelled to investigate possible interactions between herd type and response to a reduction in the risk of CM. Technical and economic results, given the initial...... incidence of CM (25.6 per 100 cow-years), were studied together with the consequences of reducing the initial risk of CM by 50% and 90% throughout lactation and the consequences of reducing the initial risk by 50% and 90% before peak yield. A conventional way of modelling yield losses - i.e. one employing...

  7. Advancing the climate data driven crop-modeling studies in the dry areas of Northern Syria and Lebanon: an important first step for assessing impact of future climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dixit, Prakash N; Telleria, Roberto

    2015-04-01

    Inter-annual and seasonal variability in climatic parameters, most importantly rainfall, have potential to cause climate-induced risk in long-term crop production. Short-term field studies do not capture the full nature of such risk and the extent to which modifications to crop, soil and water management recommendations may be made to mitigate the extent of such risk. Crop modeling studies driven by long-term daily weather data can predict the impact of climate-induced risk on crop growth and yield however, the availability of long-term daily weather data can present serious constraints to the use of crop models. To tackle this constraint, two weather generators namely, LARS-WG and MarkSim, were evaluated in order to assess their capabilities of reproducing frequency distributions, means, variances, dry spell and wet chains of observed daily precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, and solar radiation for the eight locations across cropping areas of Northern Syria and Lebanon. Further, the application of generated long-term daily weather data, with both weather generators, in simulating barley growth and yield was also evaluated. We found that overall LARS-WG performed better than MarkSim in generating daily weather parameters and in 50 years continuous simulation of barley growth and yield. Our findings suggest that LARS-WG does not necessarily require long-term e.g., >30 years observed weather data for calibration as generated results proved to be satisfactory with >10 years of observed data except in area with higher altitude. Evaluating these weather generators and the ability of generated weather data to perform long-term simulation of crop growth and yield is an important first step to assess the impact of future climate on yields, and to identify promising technologies to make agricultural systems more resilient in the given region. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Nation-wide assessment of climate change impacts on crops in the Philippines and Peru as part of multi-disciplinary modelling framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujisawa, Mariko; Kanamaru, Hideki

    2016-04-01

    Agriculture is vulnerable to environmental changes, and climate change has been recognized as one of the most devastating factors. In many developing countries, however, few studies have focused on nation-wide assessment of crop yield and crop suitability in the future, and hence there is a large pressure on science to provide policy makers with solid predictions for major crops in the countries in support of climate risk management policies and programmes. FAO has developed the tool MOSAICC (Modelling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change) where statistical climate downscaling is combined with crop yield projections under climate change scenarios. Three steps are required to get the results: 1. The historical meteorological data such as temperature and precipitation for about 30 years were collected, and future climates were statistically downscaled to the local scale, 2. The historical crop yield data were collected and regression functions were made to estimate the yield by using observed climatic data and water balance during the growing period for each crop, and 3. The yield changes in the future were estimated by using the future climate data, produced by the first step, as an input to the yield regression functions. The yield was first simulated at sub-national scale and aggregated to national scale, which is intended to provide national policies with adaptation options. The methodology considers future changes in characteristics of extreme weather events as the climate projections are on daily scale while crop simulations are on 10-daily scale. Yields were simulated with two greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCPs) for three GCMs per crop to account for uncertainties in projections. The crop assessment constitutes a larger multi-disciplinary assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture and vulnerability of livelihoods in terms of food security (e.g. water resources, agriculture market, household-level food security from socio

  9. Changing Arctic snow cover: A review of recent developments and assessment of future needs for observations, modelling, and impacts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bokhorst, Stef; Pedersen, Stine Højlund; Brucker, Ludovic

    2016-01-01

    on ecosystems and society in Arctic regions. Interdisciplinary activities are required to resolve the current limitations on measuring and modelling snow characteristics through the cold season and at different spatial scales to assure human well-being, economic stability, and improve the ability to predict...

  10. Framework for assessment of environmental impact (Fasset)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Larsson, C.M.

    2002-01-01

    The overall aim of the FASSET project is to develop a framework within which assessment models, relevant to the impact of ionising radiation on the environment, can be applied and results analysed for European ecosystems. Complete documentation on the FASSET project can be found on the FASSET's web-site (www.fasset.org). This paper describes the current state of the project, based on the project's first Annual Report. Seven European ecosystems are considered; four terrestrial (natural forests, semi-natural pastures, agricultural ecosystems and wetlands) and three aquatic (marine, brackish and freshwater). In FASSET Deliverable 1 a list of candidate generic reference organisms has been drawn up on the basis of expert judgement of exposure situations in the selected ecosystems. They serve as a starting points for development of dosimetric models, and for pooling available information on ecological relevance and biological effects. Further analysis of the candidate reference organisms is performed to justify their choice and assess their applicability in different situations, taking into account modelling of radionuclide transfer, estimates of internal and external dose rates, ecological significance and biological effects. Four general 'umbrella' radiation effects on biota are considered that, when manifested in an individual, may have an impact at population level or at higher levels of the organisational hierarchy. The four 'umbrellas' are: morbidity (fitness or well-being), mortality (death directly attributable to radiation), reproductive success (changed number of offspring) and scorable cytogenetic effects (molecular actions, aberrations). A database is being assembled, compiling dose and dose rates data from the literature for a number of organism categories for each of these four umbrella effects. The database also considers the suitability of data to derive the relative biological efficiency (RBE) for different types of radiation. The work from the three

  11. Habitat Modeling and Preferences of Marine Mammals as a Function of Oceanographic Characteristics; Development of Predictive Tools for Assessing the Risks and the Impacts Due to Sound Emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-09-30

    of vulnerable species, climate induced changes etc.). The environmental indicators need to be aggregated into impact indexes that will constitute...given to multicriteria analysis approaches to the environmental impact considerations. A spatial planning framework would have the potential to guide the...D. Vicinanza. 2011b. Strategic Environmental Assessment to evaluate WEC projects in the perspective of the environmental cost-benefit analysis

  12. Environmental Impact Assessment and Space Activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viikari, L.

    least more open distribution of information about human enterprises in space, too.However, the "public concerned" in space activities may cover the entire humanity, which would most likely direct the possible spatial EIA procedures into the auspices of the UN, with states representing their portion of the "public". Despite the peculiarities in assessing the potential impacts of space activities, Environmental Impact Assessment, modified to answer thes e particular features, would seem as a tool worth considering for the above objectives of enhanced environmental protection and public involvement. This is particularly true, as any adverse environmental impacts of space activities are highly difficult to mitigate, once they have materialized. For the above mentioned reasons, and for the fact that space activities are regulated for a major part on policy level, particularly Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) would seem a viable option. As distinct from the project EIA, the SEA means carrying out EIAs of plans themselves, i.e. it directly addresses the environmental implications of proposed strategies and policies. Formerly, the governmental authorities tended to regard SEA with suspicion because of the public interest groups involvement in policy making that the SEA entails. However, currently the SEA is a highly topical issue in the international arena, particularly because of the ongoing discussions within the United Nations Economic Commision for Europe about adopting a Protocol on Strategic Environmental Assessment to amend the Espoo Convention, and of the recent EU Directive (2001/42/EC) on the assessment of the effects of certain plans and programmes on t he environment. These instruments could also serve as feasible models for SEA in the outer space environment.

  13. Assessing the Impacts of Multiple Breadbasket Failures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casellas Connors, J. P.; Janetos, A.

    2016-12-01

    A relatively small area of the world accounts for a large proportion of total global cereal production, with most of the area devoted to the production of the world's three major cereal crops, rice, wheat and maize. An extensive literature of the sensitivity of agricultural productivity of these crops, and many others, has arisen over the past 25 years, with a general consensus that continued change in the physical climate system will very likely increase the difficulty of agricultural production in areas of the world that are already marginal with respect to production. But what this research only rarely does is assess the influence of extreme events in shocking agricultural production, and how the rest of the agricultural system reacts, in terms of prices, food insecurity, subsequent land-use change, and terrestrial carbon emissions, among many other possible responses. Because the agricultural system is interlinked with energy systems, food distribution and transportation systems, and economic systems, models that focus only on agricultural productivity can only provide a unidimensional view of the magnitude of potential impacts. We know such impacts can occur as a consequence of extreme climatic events, because they have - the impact of the severe regional drought and heat wave on the Russian and Ukrainian wheat harvests in 2010 had global consequences for food prices, just as one example. In this paper, we use an Integrated Assessment Model, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), to investigate the potential outcomes of both moderate and severe shocks to agricultural productivity in the major breadbaskets of the world - both singly and in combination. The results demonstrate clearly that there are likely to be multidimensional consequences from the kinds of shocks that are possible from a rapidly changing climate system, especially when combined with other demographic and economic trends in the coming decades. These results are only one aspect of

  14. Sensitivity to Uncertainty in Asteroid Impact Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathias, D.; Wheeler, L.; Prabhu, D. K.; Aftosmis, M.; Dotson, J.; Robertson, D. K.

    2015-12-01

    The Engineering Risk Assessment (ERA) team at NASA Ames Research Center is developing a physics-based impact risk model for probabilistically assessing threats from potential asteroid impacts on Earth. The model integrates probabilistic sampling of asteroid parameter ranges with physics-based analyses of entry, breakup, and impact to estimate damage areas and casualties from various impact scenarios. Assessing these threats is a highly coupled, dynamic problem involving significant uncertainties in the range of expected asteroid characteristics, how those characteristics may affect the level of damage, and the fidelity of various modeling approaches and assumptions. The presented model is used to explore the sensitivity of impact risk estimates to these uncertainties in order to gain insight into what additional data or modeling refinements are most important for producing effective, meaningful risk assessments. In the extreme cases of very small or very large impacts, the results are generally insensitive to many of the characterization and modeling assumptions. However, the nature of the sensitivity can change across moderate-sized impacts. Results will focus on the value of additional information in this critical, mid-size range, and how this additional data can support more robust mitigation decisions.

  15. Environmental impact assessment - a selected bibliography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lawson, W.J.

    1989-01-01

    This bibliography of literature relevant to the environmental impact assessment process is essentially a list of material dealing with the environmental impact assessment process held by Griffith University Library. The list is however well supplemented with citations of material not held in the Griffith University Library. Some economic and social impact assessment citations have been included in the bibliography, as the the environmental impact assessment concept has been interpreted very broadly. The citations are arranged according to broad subject areas, such as methodology, critical reviews, social impacts etc. Citations in each of these subject areas, which are listed in the table of contents, are identified by prefixes which are given in parentheses before the subjects headings. Within each subject area the citations are arragend in alphabetic author sequence

  16. Handbook for value-impact assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heaberlin, S.W.; Burnham, J.B.; Gallucci, R.H.V.

    1983-12-01

    The basic purpose of this handbook is to document a set of systematic procedures for providing information that can be used in performing value-impact assessments of Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) regulatory actions. The handbook describes a structured but flexible process for performing the assessment. Chapter 1 is an introduction to the value-impact assessment process. Chapter 2 describes the attributes most frequently affected by proposed NRC actions, provides guidance concerningthe appropriate level of effort to be devoted to the assessment, suggests a standard format for documenting the assessment, and discusses the treatment of uncertainty. Chapter 3 contains detailed methods for evaluating each of the attributes affected by a regulatory action. The handbook has five appendixes containing background information, technical data, and example applications of the value-impact assessment procedures. This edition of the handbook focuses primarily on assessing nuclear power reactor safety issues

  17. Assessing the impact of policy interventions on the adoption of plug-in electric vehicles: An agent-based model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silvia, Chris; Krause, Rachel M.

    2016-01-01

    Heightened concern regarding climate change and energy independence has increased interest in plug-in electric vehicles as one means to address these challenges and governments at all levels have considered policy interventions to encourage their adoption. This paper develops an agent-based model that simulates the introduction of four policy scenarios aimed at promoting electric vehicle adoption in an urban community and compares them against a baseline. These scenarios include reducing vehicle purchase price via subsidies, expanding the local public charging network, increasing the number and visibility of fully battery electric vehicles (BEVs) on the roadway through government fleet purchases, and a hybrid mix of these three approaches. The results point to the effectiveness of policy options that increased awareness of BEV technology. Specifically, the hybrid policy alternative was the most successful in encouraging BEV adoption. This policy increases the visibility and familiarity of BEV technology in the community and may help counter the idea that BEVs are not a viable alternative to gasoline-powered vehicles. - Highlights: •Various policy interventions to encourage electric vehicle adoption are examined. •An agent based model is used to simulate individual adoption decisions. •Policies that increase the familiarity of electric vehicles are most effective.

  18. Catalysis-by-design impacts assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fassbender, L L; Young, J K [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (USA); Sen, R K [Sen (R.K.) and Associates, Washington, DC (USA)

    1991-05-01

    Catalyst researchers have always recognized the need to develop a detailed understanding of the mechanisms of catalytic processes, and have hoped that it would lead to developing a theoretical predictive base to guide the search for new catalysts. This understanding allows one to develop a set of hierarchical models, from fundamental atomic-level ab-initio models to detailed engineering simulations of reactor systems, to direct the search for optimized, efficient catalyst systems. During the last two decades, the explosions of advanced surface analysis techniques have helped considerably to develop the building blocks for understanding various catalytic reactions. An effort to couple these theoretical and experimental advances to develop a set of hierarchical models to predict the nature of catalytic materials is a program entitled Catalysis-by-Design (CRD).'' In assessing the potential impacts of CBD on US industry, the key point to remember is that the value of the program lies in developing a novel methodology to search for new catalyst systems. Industrial researchers can then use this methodology to develop proprietary catalysts. Most companies involved in catalyst R D have two types of ongoing projects. The first type, what we call market-driven R D,'' are projects that support and improve upon a company's existing product lines. Project of the second type, technology-driven R D,'' are longer term, involve the development of totally new catalysts, and are initiated through scientists' research ideas. The CBD approach will impact both types of projects. However, this analysis indicates that the near-term impacts will be on market-driven'' projects. The conclusions and recommendations presented in this report were obtained by the authors through personal interviews with individuals involved in a variety of industrial catalyst development programs and through the three CBD workshops held in the summer of 1989. 34 refs., 7 figs., 7 tabs.

  19. Integrative Modeling of cap-rock Integrity in the Context of CO2 Storage: Evolution of Transport and Geochemical Properties and Impact on Performance and Safety Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bildstein, O.; Credoz, A.; Jullien, M.; Kervevan, C.; Audigane, P.; Jacquemet, N.; Lagneau, V.; Delaplace, P.; Perfetti, E.

    2010-01-01

    The objective of the 'Geocarbone-INTEGRITE' project (2005-2008) was to develop a methodology to assess the integrity of the cap-rock involved in the geological storage of CO 2 . A specific work package of the project (WP5) was dedicated to the integration of (1) the phenomenology describing the evolution of the storage system with a focus on the mechanisms occurring in the cap-rock and at the interface with the cap-rock, and (2) the data obtained from the investigation of petrographical, geomechanical, and geochemical properties, before and after reaction with CO 2 -rich solutions, performed in the other work packages (WP1 to WP4). This knowledge was introduced in numerical models and specific safety scenarios were defined in order to assess the performance of the CO 2 storage system. The results of the modeling show that the injection of CO 2 can potentially have a significant effect on the cap-rock by changing the porosity due to the dissolution and precipitation of minerals, but that the impact is limited to a zone from several decimeters to several meters of the cap-rock close to the interface with the reservoir depending on whether the supercritical carbon dioxide (SC-CO 2 ) plume enters into the cap-rock and if fractures are present at this location. The methodology used in this project can be applied to a pilot site for the injection of CO 2 in the Paris Basin. A key aspect of the safety of such a facility will be to look at the coupling of geochemical alteration and the evolution of geomechanical properties in the short and medium terms (several hundreds of years). The challenge for the future will be to structure and apply the safety assessment methodology with an operational finality, in order to support the robustness of the transition step to CGS projects at the industrial scale. (authors)

  20. Assessing the Impact of Model Parameter Uncertainty in Simulating Grass Biomass Using a Hybrid Carbon Allocation Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reyes, J. J.; Adam, J. C.; Tague, C.

    2016-12-01

    Grasslands play an important role in agricultural production as forage for livestock; they also provide a diverse set of ecosystem services including soil carbon (C) storage. The partitioning of C between above and belowground plant compartments (i.e. allocation) is influenced by both plant characteristics and environmental conditions. The objectives of this study are to 1) develop and evaluate a hybrid C allocation strategy suitable for grasslands, and 2) apply this strategy to examine the importance of various parameters related to biogeochemical cycling, photosynthesis, allocation, and soil water drainage on above and belowground biomass. We include allocation as an important process in quantifying the model parameter uncertainty, which identifies the most influential parameters and what processes may require further refinement. For this, we use the Regional Hydro-ecologic Simulation System, a mechanistic model that simulates coupled water and biogeochemical processes. A Latin hypercube sampling scheme was used to develop parameter sets for calibration and evaluation of allocation strategies, as well as parameter uncertainty analysis. We developed the hybrid allocation strategy to integrate both growth-based and resource-limited allocation mechanisms. When evaluating the new strategy simultaneously for above and belowground biomass, it produced a larger number of less biased parameter sets: 16% more compared to resource-limited and 9% more compared to growth-based. This also demonstrates its flexible application across diverse plant types and environmental conditions. We found that higher parameter importance corresponded to sub- or supra-optimal resource availability (i.e. water, nutrients) and temperature ranges (i.e. too hot or cold). For example, photosynthesis-related parameters were more important at sites warmer than the theoretical optimal growth temperature. Therefore, larger values of parameter importance indicate greater relative sensitivity in

  1. Tsunami hazard assessment in La Reunion and Mayotte Islands in the Indian Ocean : detailed modeling of tsunami impacts for the PREPARTOI project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quentel, E.; Loevenbruck, A.; Sahal, A.; Lavigne, F.

    2011-12-01

    Significant tsunamis have often affected the southwest Indian Ocean. The scientific project PREPARTOI (Prévention et REcherche pour l'Atténuation du Risque Tsunami dans l'Océan Indien), partly founded by the MAIF foundation, aims at assessing the tsunami risk on both french islands of this region, La Réunion and Mayotte. Further purpose of this project is the detailed hazard and vulnerability study for specific places of these islands, selected according to their environmental and human issues and observed impacts of past tsunamis. Tsunami hazard in this region, recently highlighted by major events in the southwest Indian Ocean, has never been thoroughly evaluated. Our study, within the PREPARTOI project, contributes to fill in this lack. It aims at examining transoceanic tsunami hazard related to earthquakes by modeling the scenarios of major historical events. We consider earthquakes with magnitude greater than Mw 7.7 located on the Sumatra (1833, 2004, 2010), Java (2006) and Makran (1945) subduction zones. First, our simulations allow us to compare the tsunami impact at regional scale according to the seismic sources; we thus identify earthquakes locations which most affect the islands and describe the impact distribution along their coastline. In general, we note that, for the same magnitude, events coming from the southern part of Sumatra subduction zone induce a larger impact than the north events. The studied tsunamis initiated along the Java and Makran subduction zones have limited effects on both French islands. Then, detailed models for the selected sites are performed based on high resolution bathymetric and topographic data; they provide estimations of the water currents, the water heights and the potential inundations. When available, field measurements and maregraphic records allow testing our models. Arrival time, amplitude of the first wave and impact on the tide gauge time series are well reproduced. Models are consistent with the observations

  2. Modeling pellet impact drilling process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kovalyov, A. V.; Ryabchikov, S. Ya; Isaev, Ye D.; Ulyanova, O. S.

    2016-03-01

    The paper describes pellet impact drilling which could be used to increase the drilling speed and the rate of penetration when drilling hard rocks. Pellet impact drilling implies rock destruction by metal pellets with high kinetic energy in the immediate vicinity of the earth formation encountered. The pellets are circulated in the bottom hole by a high velocity fluid jet, which is the principle component of the ejector pellet impact drill bit. The experiments conducted has allowed modeling the process of pellet impact drilling, which creates the scientific and methodological basis for engineering design of drilling operations under different geo-technical conditions.

  3. Impact assessment of ionising radiation on wildlife

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Copplestone, D.; Bielby, S.; Jones, S.

    2001-01-01

    This R and D project was commissioned by the Environment Agency and English Nature in January 2001 to provide up-to-date information on the impacts of ionising radiation on wildlife, upon which a robust assessment approach may be developed. This approach will also feed into the European Commission funded project 'Framework for Assessment of Environmental Impact' (FASSET), due to complete in October 2003. This report describes the behaviour and transport of radionuclides in the environment, considers the impact of ionising radiation on wildlife, and makes recommendations on an approach for the impact assessment of ionising radiation on wildlife for England and Wales. The assessment approach focuses on three ecosystems representative of those considered potentially most at risk from the impact of authorised radioactive discharges, namely a coastal grassland (terrestrial ecosystem); estuarine and freshwater ecosystems. The likely scale of the impact on wildlife is also assessed in light of a preliminary analysis based on this assessment approach. The aims of the report are: to summarise the latest research on the behaviour, transfer and impact of ionising radiation effects on wildlife; an outline and review of the relevant European and national legislation which has impacts on the requirements for assessments of the impact of ionising radiation on wildlife in the UK; to consider the role of regulatory bodies in assessing the impact of ionising radiation on wildlife with respect to England and Wales; to make recommendations on the relative biological effectiveness of different types of radiation with respect to wildlife; and to recommend an approach to assess the impacts to wildlife from ionising radiation from authorised discharges in England and Wales, with spreadsheets to support the methodology. The report demonstrates the behaviour and transfer of radionuclides in a number of different ecosystem types. Particular emphasis is placed on exposure pathways in those

  4. The potential impact on obesity of a 10% tax on sugar-sweetened beverages in Ireland, an effect assessment modelling study

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background Some governments have recently shown a willingness to introduce taxes on unhealthy foods and drinks. In 2011, the Irish Minister for Health proposed a 10% tax on sugar sweetened beverages (SSBs) as a measure to combat childhood obesity. Whilst this proposed tax received considerable support, the Irish Department of Finance requested a Health Impact Assessment of this measure. As part of this assessment we set out to model the impact on obesity. Methods We used price elasticity estimates to calculate the effect of a 10% SSB tax on SSB consumption. SSBs were assumed to have an own-price elasticity of −0.9 and we assumed a tax pass-on rate to consumers of 90%. Baseline SSB consumption and obesity prevalence, by age, sex and income-group, for Ireland were taken from the 2007 Survey on Lifestyle and Attitude to Nutrition. A comparative risk assessment model was used to estimate the effect on obesity arising from the predicted change in calorie consumption, both for the whole population and for sub-groups (age, sex, income). Sensitivity analyses were conducted on price-elasticity estimates and tax pass-on rates. Results We estimate that a 10% tax on SSBs will result in a mean reduction in energy intake of 2.1 kcal/person/day. After adjustment for self-reported data, the 10% tax is predicted to reduce the percentage of the obese adult population (body mass index [BMI] ≥30 kg/m2) by 1.3%, equating to 9,900 adults (95% credible intervals: 7,750 to 12,940), and the overweight or obese population (BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2) by 0.7%, or 14,380 adults (9,790 to 17,820). Reductions in obesity are similar for men (1.2%) and women (1.3%), and similar for each income group (between 1.1% and 1.4% across income groups). Reductions in obesity are greater in young adults than older adults (e.g. 2.9% in adults aged 18–24 years vs 0.6% in adults aged 65 years and over). Conclusions This study suggests that a tax on SSBs in Ireland would have a small but meaningful effect

  5. Impact assessment: Eroding benefits through streamlining?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bond, Alan, E-mail: alan.bond@uea.ac.uk [School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia (United Kingdom); School of Geo and Spatial Sciences, North-West University (South Africa); Pope, Jenny, E-mail: jenny@integral-sustainability.net [Integral Sustainability (Australia); Curtin University Sustainability Policy Institute (Australia); Morrison-Saunders, Angus, E-mail: A.Morrison-Saunders@murdoch.edu.au [School of Geo and Spatial Sciences, North-West University (South Africa); Environmental Science, Murdoch University (Australia); Retief, Francois, E-mail: francois.retief@nwu.ac.za [School of Geo and Spatial Sciences, North-West University (South Africa); Gunn, Jill A.E., E-mail: jill.gunn@usask.ca [Department of Geography and Planning and School of Environment and Sustainability, University of Saskatchewan (Canada)

    2014-02-15

    This paper argues that Governments have sought to streamline impact assessment in recent years (defined as the last five years) to counter concerns over the costs and potential for delays to economic development. We hypothesise that this has had some adverse consequences on the benefits that subsequently accrue from the assessments. This hypothesis is tested using a framework developed from arguments for the benefits brought by Environmental Impact Assessment made in 1982 in the face of the UK Government opposition to its implementation in a time of economic recession. The particular benefits investigated are ‘consistency and fairness’, ‘early warning’, ‘environment and development’, and ‘public involvement’. Canada, South Africa, the United Kingdom and Western Australia are the jurisdictions tested using this framework. The conclusions indicate that significant streamlining has been undertaken which has had direct adverse effects on some of the benefits that impact assessment should deliver, particularly in Canada and the UK. The research has not examined whether streamlining has had implications for the effectiveness of impact assessment, but the causal link between streamlining and benefits does sound warning bells that merit further investigation. -- Highlights: • Investigation of the extent to which government has streamlined IA. • Evaluation framework was developed based on benefits of impact assessment. • Canada, South Africa, the United Kingdom, and Western Australia were examined. • Trajectory in last five years is attrition of benefits of impact assessment.

  6. Impact assessment: Eroding benefits through streamlining?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bond, Alan; Pope, Jenny; Morrison-Saunders, Angus; Retief, Francois; Gunn, Jill A.E.

    2014-01-01

    This paper argues that Governments have sought to streamline impact assessment in recent years (defined as the last five years) to counter concerns over the costs and potential for delays to economic development. We hypothesise that this has had some adverse consequences on the benefits that subsequently accrue from the assessments. This hypothesis is tested using a framework developed from arguments for the benefits brought by Environmental Impact Assessment made in 1982 in the face of the UK Government opposition to its implementation in a time of economic recession. The particular benefits investigated are ‘consistency and fairness’, ‘early warning’, ‘environment and development’, and ‘public involvement’. Canada, South Africa, the United Kingdom and Western Australia are the jurisdictions tested using this framework. The conclusions indicate that significant streamlining has been undertaken which has had direct adverse effects on some of the benefits that impact assessment should deliver, particularly in Canada and the UK. The research has not examined whether streamlining has had implications for the effectiveness of impact assessment, but the causal link between streamlining and benefits does sound warning bells that merit further investigation. -- Highlights: • Investigation of the extent to which government has streamlined IA. • Evaluation framework was developed based on benefits of impact assessment. • Canada, South Africa, the United Kingdom, and Western Australia were examined. • Trajectory in last five years is attrition of benefits of impact assessment

  7. A Methodology for Modeling Nuclear Power Plant Passive Component Aging in Probabilistic Risk Assessment under the Impact of Operating Conditions, Surveillance and Maintenance Activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guler Yigitoglu, Askin

    In the context of long operation of nuclear power plants (NPPs) (i.e., 60-80 years, and beyond), investigation of the aging of passive systems, structures and components (SSCs) is important to assess safety margins and to decide on reactor life extension as indicated within the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program. In the traditional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodology, evaluating the potential significance of aging of passive SSCs on plant risk is challenging. Although passive SSC failure rates can be added as initiating event frequencies or basic event failure rates in the traditional event-tree/fault-tree methodology, these failure rates are generally based on generic plant failure data which means that the true state of a specific plant is not reflected in a realistic manner on aging effects. Dynamic PRA methodologies have gained attention recently due to their capability to account for the plant state and thus address the difficulties in the traditional PRA modeling of aging effects of passive components using physics-based models (and also in the modeling of digital instrumentation and control systems). Physics-based models can capture the impact of complex aging processes (e.g., fatigue, stress corrosion cracking, flow-accelerated corrosion, etc.) on SSCs and can be utilized to estimate passive SSC failure rates using realistic NPP data from reactor simulation, as well as considering effects of surveillance and maintenance activities. The objectives of this dissertation are twofold: The development of a methodology for the incorporation of aging modeling of passive SSC into a reactor simulation environment to provide a framework for evaluation of their risk contribution in both the dynamic and traditional PRA; and the demonstration of the methodology through its application to pressurizer surge line pipe weld and steam generator tubes in commercial nuclear power plants. In the proposed methodology, a

  8. Impacts of Aerosol Direct Effects on the South Asian climate: Assessment of Radiative Feedback Processes Using Model Simulations and Satellite/surface Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, S.; Gautam, R.; Lau, W. K.; Tsay, S.; Sun, W.; Kim, K.; Chern, J.; Colarco, P. R.; Hsu, N. C.; Lin, N.

    2011-12-01

    direct radiative forcing of aerosols at surface to be -19-23 Wm-2 (12-15 % of the surface solar insolation) over NW India is estimated using an observational approach. A comparison of aerosol radiative forcing between numerical simulation and observational estimate will be presented. Overall, this work will demonstrate the aerosol direct effects from both modeling and observation perspectives, and further to assess the physical processes underlying the aerosol radiative feedbacks and possible impacts on the large-scale South Asian monsoon system.

  9. Applicable international environmental impact assessment laws for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Lawrence Hart

    1971-05-28

    May 28, 1971 ... appraise selected International Environmental laws and the Nigerian Environmental Impact Assessment methodology ... maze of pipelines, delivery lines, flow lines, canals and .... Toxic Materials and international waterways.

  10. Integrating Ecosystem Services Into Health Impact Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Health Impact Assessment (HIA) provides a methodology for incorporating considerations of public health into planning and decision-making processes. HIA promotes interdisciplinary action, stakeholder participation, and timeliness and takes into account equity, sustainability, and...

  11. Evaluating the effectiveness of impact assessment instruments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cashmore, Matthew; Richardson, Tim; Hilding-Ryedvik, Tuija

    2010-01-01

    to sharpen effectiveness evaluation theory for impact assessment instruments this article critically examines the neglected issue of their political constitution. Analytical examples are used to concretely explore the nature and significance of the politicisation of impact assessment. It is argued......The central role of impact assessment instruments globally in policy integration initiatives has been cemented in recent years. Associated with this trend, but also reflecting political emphasis on greater accountability in certain policy sectors and a renewed focus on economic competitiveness...... that raising awareness about the political character of impact assessment instruments, in itself, is a vital step in advancing effectiveness evaluation theory. Broader theoretical lessons on the framing of evaluation research are also drawn from the political analysis. We conclude that, at least within...

  12. Assessing the Impacts of Agricultural Biotechnologies

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    The group has completed studies of applications in livestock production and .... into the design and application of impact assessment tools from the outset. ...... Corn producers in the United States, who supply the manufacturers of fructose. 4.

  13. Screening of external hazards for NPP with bank type reactor. Modeling of safety related systems and equipment for RBMK. Probabilistic assessment of NPP safety on aircraft impact. Progress report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kostarev, V.

    1999-01-01

    This progress report was produced within the frame of IAEA research project on screening the hazards for NPP with bank type reactor. It covers the following tasks; development of the model for the primary loop system of RBMK; developing the models for safety related equipment of RBMK; developing of models for safety related models of EGP-6 type reactor (Bilibinskaya Nuclear Co-generated heat and Power Plant); and probabilistic assessment of NPP safety on aircraft impact

  14. Assessing the Impact of Imperfect Diagnosis on Service Reliability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grønbæk, Lars Jesper; Schwefel, Hans-Peter; Kjærgaard, Jens Kristian

    2010-01-01

    , representative diagnosis performance metrics have been defined and their closed-form solutions obtained for the Markov model. These equations enable model parameterization from traces of implemented diagnosis components. The diagnosis model has been integrated in a reliability model assessing the impact...... of the diagnosis functions for the studied reliability problem. In a simulation study we finally analyze trade-off properties of diagnosis heuristics from literature, map them to the analytic Markov model, and investigate its suitability for service reliability optimization....

  15. Assessing the EC ILUC proposal. Dutch national ILUC Impact Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peters, D.; Toop, G.; Van den Bos, A.; Spoettle, M.

    2013-04-15

    Indirect Land Use Change (ILUC) is the effect that when existing agricultural land producing food is used for biofuel feedstock production, food production is reduced and this reduction is partially compensated by the conversion of non-agricultural land into new cropland elsewhere. ILUC can have a negative impact on the GHG performance of biofuels and can lead to loss of biodiversity. ILUC, its quantification and possible policy measures have been debated in the EU since 2008. The final legislative text to be negotiated on the basis of the ILUC proposal is likely to have a profound impact on the current EU biofuels market but especially on its future development. This report assesses the legal soundness and factual basis of the proposal. It also assesses the policy risks, effectiveness of, and economic consequences resulting from the four most important proposed measures. Alternative scenarios are explored for each of the proposed measures. The report starts with a description of the Dutch biofuels market as the current situation and future perspective of this market is naturally of specific concern for Dutch negotiators in Brussels. This report takes the IFPRI (International Food Policy Research Institute) 2011 modelling study as a starting point when assessing the ILUC impacts of EU biofuels. The IFPRI study modelling results assign high ILUC emissions to conventional biodiesel and assigns much lower ILUC emissions to conventional ethanol. The study does not model ILUC effects of advanced biofuels. The Dutch biofuels market is dominated by biodiesel, of which a large share is double counting. Following the IFPRI 2011 ILUC modelling, this means that a high share of biofuels with a high ILUC risk are supplied to the market but also a high share of advanced, double counting biofuels with a low to medium ILUC risk. The Netherlands hosts a relatively large oilseed crushing and biofuel production industry, of which an important share consists of advanced biofuel

  16. Ecological risk assessment as a framework for environmental impact assessments

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Claassen, Marius

    1999-01-01

    Full Text Available Environmental impact assessments in South Africa are usually conducted according to the integrated environmental management (IEM) procedure. The preliminary investigation reported here, indicated that most of the ecological requirements specified...

  17. Introduction: The effectiveness of impact assessment instruments

    OpenAIRE

    Cashmore, M; Bond, A; Sadler, B

    2009-01-01

    The global application of impact assessment instruments to achieve a variety of policy integration goals (e.g. the mainstreaming of environmental, gender or economic efficiency concerns) continues to proliferate. These instruments represent important components of contemporary political governance and hence are an important locus for applied research. This special issue of Impact Assessment and Project Appraisal critically examines 'state-of-the-art' knowledge and understanding of the effecti...

  18. Health Impact Assessment: Linking Public Health to ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    The goal of this presentation is to explore how HIA can help inform hazardous waste permitting regulations and incorporate community vulnerability and cumulative impacts to their potential health risks into permitting decision making by the California Department of Toxic Substances Control. Presented the Health Impact Assessment (HIA) at the State of California Cumulative Impacts and Community Vulnerability Symposium on July 27 in Diamond Bar, CA.

  19. Life Cycle Thinking in Impact Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bidstrup, Morten

    2015-01-01

    It has been advocated that life cycle thinking (LCT) should be applied in impact assessment (IA) to a greater extent, since some development proposals pose a risk of significant impacts throughout the interconnected activities of product systems. Multiple authors have proposed the usage of life...

  20. Environmental impact assessment of the nuclear reactor at Vinca, based on the data on emission of radioactivity from the literature: A modeling approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gršić Z.

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Research activities of Vinca Institite have been based on two heavy water research reactors: 10 MW one, RA and zero power RB. Reactor RA was operational from 1962 to 1982. In 2010, spent fuel have been sent to the country of origin, and reactor now is in decommissioning. During operational phase of the reactor there were no recorded accidental releases into the environment just operational ones. Results of the environmental impact assessment, of the assumed emission of radionuclides, from the ventilation of nuclear reactor "RA" in Vinca, to the atmospheric boundary layer are presented in this paper. Evaluation was done by using the Gaussian straight-line diffusion model and taking into account characteristics of the reactor ventilation system, the assumed emission release of radioactivity (from the literature, site-specific meteorological data for six-year period and local topography around nuclear reactor, and corresponding dose factors for inventory of radionuclides. Based on the described approach, and assuming that the range of appropriate meteorological data for six year period for the application of described mathematical model is enough for this kind of analysis, it can be concluded that the nuclear reactor "RA", in the course of its work from 1962 to 1982, had no influence on the surrounding environment through the air above regulatory limits. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. III 45003

  1. Mobile phone tracking: in support of modelling traffic-related air pollution contribution to individual exposure and its implications for public health impact assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    We propose a new approach to assess the impact of traffic-related air pollution on public health by mapping personal trajectories using mobile phone tracking technology in an urban environment. Although this approach is not based on any empirical studies, we believe that this method has great potential and deserves serious attention. Mobile phone tracking technology makes it feasible to generate millions of personal trajectories and thereby cover a large fraction of an urban population. Through analysis, personal trajectories are not only associated to persons, but it can also be associated with vehicles, vehicle type, vehicle speed, vehicle emission rates, and sources of vehicle emissions. Pollution levels can be estimated by dispersion models from calculated traffic emissions. Traffic pollution exposure to individuals can be estimated based on the exposure along the individual human trajectories in the estimated pollution concentration fields by utilizing modelling tools. By data integration, one may identify trajectory patterns of particularly exposed human groups. The approach of personal trajectories may open a new paradigm in understanding urban dynamics and new perspectives in population-wide empirical public health research. This new approach can be further applied to individual commuter route planning, land use planning, urban traffic network planning, and used by authorities to formulate air pollution mitigation policies and regulations. PMID:24188173

  2. Assessment of the impact of climate change on spatiotemporal variability of blue and green water resources under CMIP3 and CMIP5 models in a highly mountainous watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fazeli Farsani, Iman; Farzaneh, M. R.; Besalatpour, A. A.; Salehi, M. H.; Faramarzi, M.

    2018-04-01

    The variability and uncertainty of water resources associated with climate change are critical issues in arid and semi-arid regions. In this study, we used the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) to evaluate the impact of climate change on the spatial and temporal variability of water resources in the Bazoft watershed, Iran. The analysis was based on changes of blue water flow, green water flow, and green water storage for a future period (2010-2099) compared to a historical period (1992-2008). The r-factor, p-factor, R 2, and Nash-Sutcliff coefficients for discharge were 1.02, 0.89, 0.80, and 0.80 for the calibration period and 1.03, 0.76, 0.57, and 0.59 for the validation period, respectively. General circulation models (GCMs) under 18 emission scenarios from the IPCC's Fourth (AR4) and Fifth (AR5) Assessment Reports were fed into the SWAT model. At the sub-basin level, blue water tended to decrease, while green water flow tended to increase in the future scenario, and green water storage was predicted to continue its historical trend into the future. At the monthly time scale, the 95% prediction uncertainty bands (95PPUs) of blue and green water flows varied widely in the watershed. A large number (18) of climate change scenarios fell within the estimated uncertainty band of the historical period. The large differences among scenarios indicated high levels of uncertainty in the watershed. Our results reveal that the spatial patterns of water resource components and their uncertainties in the context of climate change are notably different between IPCC AR4 and AR5 in the Bazoft watershed. This study provides a strong basis for water supply-demand analyses, and the general analytical framework can be applied to other study areas with similar challenges.

  3. Hydrological and hydrogeological effects of an open repository in Forsmark. Final MIKE SHE flow modelling results for the Environmental Impact Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maartensson, Erik; Gustafsson, Lars-Goeran

    2010-07-01

    This report presents methodology and modelling results concerning a deep-rock repository for spent nuclear fuel in Forsmark. Specifically, the modelling tools MIKE SHE, MIKE 11 and MOUSE are used to quantify the groundwater inflow to the repository and associated hydrological and hydrogeological effects during the construction and operation phases. The modelling results presented in the report provide input to the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) that will be part of a permit application according to the Environmental Code. Based on an existing MIKE SHE model for Forsmark, the first step of the modelling process was to implement an updated hydrogeological model of the bedrock and to increase the vertical and horizontal extents of the model domain. Other model updates involve the vegetation classification, and implementation of SFR (final repository for short-lived radioactive waste) and the subsurface drainage system at the nearby nuclear power plant. The updated model was calibrated using measured data on groundwater levels in the Quaternary deposits and the bedrock, water levels in lakes, and stream discharges. The calibrated model was then used for simulation of undisturbed conditions (i.e. without the repository) as a reference for modelling results obtained for disturbed conditions (with the repository). The modelling results for undisturbed conditions that are presented in the report closely resemble those of the final MIKE SHE site descriptive modelling (SDM-Site Forsmark). The repository layout was implemented as pipe links (segments) in the modelling tool MOUSE, and the implemented layout was used for the modelling of disturbed conditions. The study uses an updated and verified MIKE SHE-MOUSE coupling routine that is specifically adapted for calculation of groundwater inflow to grouted rock tunnels. The vertical shafts of the repository are implemented in the form of MIKE SHE grid cells with atmospheric pressure. Modelling results for disturbed

  4. Hydrological and hydrogeological effects of an open repository in Forsmark. Final MIKE SHE flow modelling results for the Environmental Impact Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maartensson, Erik; Gustafsson, Lars-Goeran (DHI Sverige AB (Sweden))

    2010-07-15

    This report presents methodology and modelling results concerning a deep-rock repository for spent nuclear fuel in Forsmark. Specifically, the modelling tools MIKE SHE, MIKE 11 and MOUSE are used to quantify the groundwater inflow to the repository and associated hydrological and hydrogeological effects during the construction and operation phases. The modelling results presented in the report provide input to the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) that will be part of a permit application according to the Environmental Code. Based on an existing MIKE SHE model for Forsmark, the first step of the modelling process was to implement an updated hydrogeological model of the bedrock and to increase the vertical and horizontal extents of the model domain. Other model updates involve the vegetation classification, and implementation of SFR (final repository for short-lived radioactive waste) and the subsurface drainage system at the nearby nuclear power plant. The updated model was calibrated using measured data on groundwater levels in the Quaternary deposits and the bedrock, water levels in lakes, and stream discharges. The calibrated model was then used for simulation of undisturbed conditions (i.e. without the repository) as a reference for modelling results obtained for disturbed conditions (with the repository). The modelling results for undisturbed conditions that are presented in the report closely resemble those of the final MIKE SHE site descriptive modelling (SDM-Site Forsmark). The repository layout was implemented as pipe links (segments) in the modelling tool MOUSE, and the implemented layout was used for the modelling of disturbed conditions. The study uses an updated and verified MIKE SHE-MOUSE coupling routine that is specifically adapted for calculation of groundwater inflow to grouted rock tunnels. The vertical shafts of the repository are implemented in the form of MIKE SHE grid cells with atmospheric pressure. Modelling results for disturbed

  5. Impacts of Model Building Energy Codes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Athalye, Rahul A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Sivaraman, Deepak [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Elliott, Douglas B. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Liu, Bing [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Bartlett, Rosemarie [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2016-10-31

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Building Energy Codes Program (BECP) periodically evaluates national and state-level impacts associated with energy codes in residential and commercial buildings. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), funded by DOE, conducted an assessment of the prospective impacts of national model building energy codes from 2010 through 2040. A previous PNNL study evaluated the impact of the Building Energy Codes Program; this study looked more broadly at overall code impacts. This report describes the methodology used for the assessment and presents the impacts in terms of energy savings, consumer cost savings, and reduced CO2 emissions at the state level and at aggregated levels. This analysis does not represent all potential savings from energy codes in the U.S. because it excludes several states which have codes which are fundamentally different from the national model energy codes or which do not have state-wide codes. Energy codes follow a three-phase cycle that starts with the development of a new model code, proceeds with the adoption of the new code by states and local jurisdictions, and finishes when buildings comply with the code. The development of new model code editions creates the potential for increased energy savings. After a new model code is adopted, potential savings are realized in the field when new buildings (or additions and alterations) are constructed to comply with the new code. Delayed adoption of a model code and incomplete compliance with the code’s requirements erode potential savings. The contributions of all three phases are crucial to the overall impact of codes, and are considered in this assessment.

  6. Models and parameters for environmental radiological assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, C.W.

    1984-01-01

    This book presents a unified compilation of models and parameters appropriate for assessing the impact of radioactive discharges to the environment. Models examined include those developed for the prediction of atmospheric and hydrologic transport and deposition, for terrestrial and aquatic food-chain bioaccumulation, and for internal and external dosimetry. Chapters have been entered separately into the data base

  7. Models and parameters for environmental radiological assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miller, C W [ed.

    1984-01-01

    This book presents a unified compilation of models and parameters appropriate for assessing the impact of radioactive discharges to the environment. Models examined include those developed for the prediction of atmospheric and hydrologic transport and deposition, for terrestrial and aquatic food-chain bioaccumulation, and for internal and external dosimetry. Chapters have been entered separately into the data base. (ACR)

  8. Advancing the climate data driven crop-modeling studies in the dry areas of Northern Syria and Lebanon: An important first step for assessing impact of future climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dixit, Prakash N., E-mail: p.dixit@cgiar.org; Telleria, Roberto

    2015-04-01

    Inter-annual and seasonal variability in climatic parameters, most importantly rainfall, have potential to cause climate-induced risk in long-term crop production. Short-term field studies do not capture the full nature of such risk and the extent to which modifications to crop, soil and water management recommendations may be made to mitigate the extent of such risk. Crop modeling studies driven by long-term daily weather data can predict the impact of climate-induced risk on crop growth and yield however, the availability of long-term daily weather data can present serious constraints to the use of crop models. To tackle this constraint, two weather generators namely, LARS-WG and MarkSim, were evaluated in order to assess their capabilities of reproducing frequency distributions, means, variances, dry spell and wet chains of observed daily precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, and solar radiation for the eight locations across cropping areas of Northern Syria and Lebanon. Further, the application of generated long-term daily weather data, with both weather generators, in simulating barley growth and yield was also evaluated. We found that overall LARS-WG performed better than MarkSim in generating daily weather parameters and in 50 years continuous simulation of barley growth and yield. Our findings suggest that LARS-WG does not necessarily require long-term e.g., > 30 years observed weather data for calibration as generated results proved to be satisfactory with > 10 years of observed data except in area with higher altitude. Evaluating these weather generators and the ability of generated weather data to perform long-term simulation of crop growth and yield is an important first step to assess the impact of future climate on yields, and to identify promising technologies to make agricultural systems more resilient in the given region. - Highlights: • LARS-WG performed better than MarkSim in generating daily weather parameters. • LARS-WG can serve

  9. Advancing the climate data driven crop-modeling studies in the dry areas of Northern Syria and Lebanon: An important first step for assessing impact of future climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dixit, Prakash N.; Telleria, Roberto

    2015-01-01

    Inter-annual and seasonal variability in climatic parameters, most importantly rainfall, have potential to cause climate-induced risk in long-term crop production. Short-term field studies do not capture the full nature of such risk and the extent to which modifications to crop, soil and water management recommendations may be made to mitigate the extent of such risk. Crop modeling studies driven by long-term daily weather data can predict the impact of climate-induced risk on crop growth and yield however, the availability of long-term daily weather data can present serious constraints to the use of crop models. To tackle this constraint, two weather generators namely, LARS-WG and MarkSim, were evaluated in order to assess their capabilities of reproducing frequency distributions, means, variances, dry spell and wet chains of observed daily precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, and solar radiation for the eight locations across cropping areas of Northern Syria and Lebanon. Further, the application of generated long-term daily weather data, with both weather generators, in simulating barley growth and yield was also evaluated. We found that overall LARS-WG performed better than MarkSim in generating daily weather parameters and in 50 years continuous simulation of barley growth and yield. Our findings suggest that LARS-WG does not necessarily require long-term e.g., > 30 years observed weather data for calibration as generated results proved to be satisfactory with > 10 years of observed data except in area with higher altitude. Evaluating these weather generators and the ability of generated weather data to perform long-term simulation of crop growth and yield is an important first step to assess the impact of future climate on yields, and to identify promising technologies to make agricultural systems more resilient in the given region. - Highlights: • LARS-WG performed better than MarkSim in generating daily weather parameters. • LARS-WG can serve

  10. Transboundary Environmental Impact Assessment : An Introduction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bastmeijer, C.J.; Koivurova, T.; Bastmeijer, K.; Koivurova, T.

    2008-01-01

    Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) is a well-established instrument of environmental law and policy that aims to ensure that potential adverse environmental effects of human activities are assessed before decisions on such activities are made. The instrument is increasingly being applied in

  11. An investigation of human body model morphing for the assessment of abdomen responses to impact against a population of test subjects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beillas, Philippe; Berthet, Fabien

    2017-05-29

    Human body models have the potential to better describe the human anatomy and variability than dummies. However, data sets available to verify the human response to impact are typically limited in numbers, and they are not size or gender specific. The objective of this study was to investigate the use of model morphing methodologies within that context. In this study, a simple human model scaling methodology was developed to morph two detailed human models (Global Human Body Model Consortium models 50th male, M50, and 5th female, F05) to the dimensions of post mortem human surrogates (PMHS) used in published literature. The methodology was then successfully applied to 52 PMHS tested in 14 impact conditions loading the abdomen. The corresponding 104 simulations were compared to the responses of the PMHS and to the responses of the baseline models without scaling (28 simulations). The responses were analysed using the CORA method and peak values. The results suggest that model scaling leads to an improvement of the predicted force and deflection but has more marginal effects on the predicted abdominal compressions. M50 and F05 models scaled to the same PMHS were also found to have similar external responses, but large differences were found between the two sets of models for the strain energy densities in the liver and the spleen for mid-abdomen impact simulations. These differences, which were attributed to the anatomical differences in the abdomen of the baseline models, highlight the importance of the selection of the impact condition for simulation studies, especially if the organ location is not known in the test. While the methodology could be further improved, it shows the feasibility of using model scaling methodologies to compare human models of different sizes and to evaluate scaling approaches within the context of human model validation.

  12. Modeling dynamics of {sup 137}Cs in forest surface environments: Application to a contaminated forest site near Fukushima and assessment of potential impacts of soil organic matter interactions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ota, Masakazu, E-mail: ohta.masakazu@jaea.go.jp; Nagai, Haruyasu; Koarashi, Jun

    2016-05-01

    A process-based model for {sup 137}Cs transfer in forest surface environments was developed to assess the dynamic behavior of Fukushima-derived {sup 137}Cs in a Japanese forest. The model simulation successfully reproduced the observed data from 3 year migration of {sup 137}Cs in the organic and mineral soil layers at a contaminated forest near Fukushima. The migration of {sup 137}Cs from the organic layer to the mineral soil was explained by the direct deposition pattern on the forest floor and the turnover of litter materials in the organic layer under certain ecological conditions. Long-term predictions indicated that more than 90% of the deposited {sup 137}Cs would remain within the top 5 cm of the soil for up to 30 years after the accident, suggesting that the forest acts as an effective long-term reservoir of {sup 137}Cs with limited transfer via the groundwater pathway. The model was also used to explore the potential impacts of soil organic matter (SOM) interactions on the mobility and bioavailability of {sup 137}Cs in the soil–plant system. The simulation results for hypothetical organic soils with modified parameters of {sup 137}Cs turnover revealed that the SOM-induced reduction of {sup 137}Cs adsorption elevates the fraction of dissolved {sup 137}Cs in the soil solution, thereby increasing the soil-to-plant transfer of {sup 137}Cs without substantially altering the fractional distribution of {sup 137}Cs in the soil. Slower fixation of {sup 137}Cs on the flayed edge site of clay minerals and enhanced mobilization of the clay-fixed {sup 137}Cs in organic-rich soils also appeared to elevate the soil-to-plant transfer of {sup 137}Cs by increasing the fraction of the soil-adsorbed (exchangeable) {sup 137}Cs. A substantial proportion (approximate 30%–60%) of {sup 137}Cs in these organic-rich soils was transferred to layers deeper than 5 cm decades later. These results suggested that SOM influences the behavior of {sup 137}Cs in forests over a prolonged

  13. Unilateral emission reductions of the EU and multilateral emission reductions of the developed countries. Assessing the impact on Finland with TIMES model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ekholm, T.; Lehtilae, A.; Savolainen, I.

    2008-03-01

    This report assesses the impact of the unilateral greenhouse gas emission reductions proposed by the EU on the structure of European and Finnish energy systems with TIMES models. The two models used are techno-economical energy system models including an extensive description of technologies on energy production and consumption. The models derive the sectoral energy demand from given economic projections and calculate the optimal way of satisfying the energy demand through market equilibrium. The basis for EU wide calculations was the Common POLES-IMAGE economic scenarios which project a GDP growth of 2.4 % p.a. until 2020. A sensitivity analysis was conducted with a lower economic growth projection. The results indicated that a reduction of 20 % compared to 1990 emission levels by 2020 would lead to most reductions being conducted at the electricity sector. The consumption of coal in electricity generation would decrease considerably. In the long term some of the natural gas based production would incorporate carbon capture and storage (CCS), and the use of wind power would grow substantially. The value of carbon would lie at levels around 20 to 30 euro/t CO 2 by 2020 were the reductions carried out without flexibility mechanisms. With a reduction target of -30 % by 2050, the value of carbon would rise to 40 . 50 euro/t CO 2 by 2050, and nearly to 100 euro/t CO 2 with a target of -60 % in 2050. The calculations on Finland were based on economic projections by the Ministry of Finance and the Government Institute of Economic Research. The scenarios asses the optimal way of reducing Finnish emissions with a range of prices for emission rights between 20 and 50 euro/t CO 2 . The sectors not included in the emission trading scheme were assumed to conduct reductions with costs up to the value of emission rights. The use of coal was reduced after 2010, accompanied by an increase in the use of natural gas. The utilization of bioenergy increases considerable in the total

  14. Assessment of the impact of oxidation processes on indoor air pollution using the new time-resolved INCA-Indoor model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendez, Maxence; Blond, Nadège; Blondeau, Patrice; Schoemaecker, Coralie; Hauglustaine, Didier A.

    2015-12-01

    INCA-Indoor, a new indoor air quality (IAQ) model, has been developed to simulate the concentrations of volatile organic compounds (VOC) and oxidants considering indoor air specific processes such as: emission, ventilation, surface interactions (sorption, deposition, uptake). Based on the detailed version of SAPRC-07 chemical mechanism, INCA-Indoor is able to analyze the contribution of the production and loss pathways of key chemical species (VOCs, oxidants, radical species). The potential of this model has been tested through three complementary analyses: a comparison with the most detailed IAQ model found in the literature, focusing on oxidant species; realistic scenarios covering a large range of conditions, involving variable OH sources like HONO; and the investigation of alkenes ozonolysis under a large range of indoor conditions that can increase OH and HO2 concentrations. Simulations have been run changing nitrous acid (HONO) concentrations, NOx levels, photolysis rates and ventilation rates, showing that HONO can be the main source of indoor OH. Cleaning events using products containing D-limonene have been simulated at different periods of the day. These scenarios show that HOX concentrations can significantly increase in specific conditions. An assessment of the impact of indoor chemistry on the potential formation of secondary species such as formaldehyde (HCHO) and acetaldehyde (CH3CHO) has been carried out under various room configuration scenarios and a study of the HOx budget for different realistic scenarios has been performed. It has been shown that, under the simulation conditions, formaldehyde can be affected by oxidant concentrations via chemical production which can account for more than 10% of the total production, representing 6.5 ppb/h. On the other hand, acetaldehyde production is affected more by oxidation processes. When the photolysis rates are high, chemical processes are responsible for about 50% of the total production of

  15. Impact assessment of ionising radiation in wildlife

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    This R and D project was commissioned by the Environment Agency and English Nature in January 2001 to provide up-to-date information on ionising radiation impact to wildlife, upon which a robust assessment approach may be developed. The methodology will provide an interim approach, whilst awaiting the outcome of the European Commission funded project 'Framework for Assessment of Environmental Impact' (FASSET) due to end in October 2003. The aims of the report were: to summarise the latest research on the behaviour, transfer and impact of ionising radiation effects on wildlife; to outline and review relevant European Directives which have impacted on the requirements to assess the impact to wildlife from ionising radiation in the UK; to consider the role of regulatory bodies in assessing the impact of ionising radiation on wildlife with respect to England and Wales; to make recommendations on the relative biological effectiveness of different types of radiation with respect to wildlife; and to recommend an approach with which to assess the 'scale of risk' to wildlife from the effects of ionising radiation, with spreadsheets to support the methodology. The report describes the behaviour and transfer of radionuclides in a number of different ecosystem types. Particular emphasis is placed on those ecosystems most likely to be impacted by the authorised discharges of radioactivity within the UK. As there is no international consensus on the approach to be taken to assess the impact of ionising radiation on wildlife, some countries have adopted their own legislation. The report evaluates these regulatory frameworks and describe the current UK position

  16. IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF STRUCTURAL FLOOD MITIGATION MEASURES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ZVIJAKOVA LENKA

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The objective of the paper is to propose a methodology for assessing water constructions, which will allow impact assessment of water constructions on the environment and hence select the best option for the permission process. The result is “Guideline for environmental impact assessment of flood protection object”, which uses the method of UMRA (universal matrix of risk analysis, which is one of the methods of risk analysis proposed not only to enhance the transparency and sensitivity of the evaluation process, but also to cope with the requirements of the EIA system in the Slovakia and Europe Union.

  17. VTAC: virtual terrain assisted impact assessment for cyber attacks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Argauer, Brian J.; Yang, Shanchieh J.

    2008-03-01

    Overwhelming intrusion alerts have made timely response to network security breaches a difficult task. Correlating alerts to produce a higher level view of intrusion state of a network, thus, becomes an essential element in network defense. This work proposes to analyze correlated or grouped alerts and determine their 'impact' to services and users of the network. A network is modeled as 'virtual terrain' where cyber attacks maneuver. Overlaying correlated attack tracks on virtual terrain exhibits the vulnerabilities exploited by each track and the relationships between them and different network entities. The proposed impact assessment algorithm utilizes the graph-based virtual terrain model and combines assessments of damages caused by the attacks. The combined impact scores allow to identify severely damaged network services and affected users. Several scenarios are examined to demonstrate the uses of the proposed Virtual Terrain Assisted Impact Assessment for Cyber Attacks (VTAC).

  18. Assessment by regional modelling of the impact of monopile foundations on the hydrodynamics and sediment transport: case of Courseulles-sur-Mer (France) wind farm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rivier, Aurélie; Bennis, Anne-Claire; Pinon, Grégory; Magar, Vanesa; Gross, Markus

    2015-04-01

    Offshore monopile foundations of wind turbines modify hydrodynamics and sediment transport at local scale and also at regional scale. The aim of this work is to assess these changes and to parametrize them in a regional model. These modifications were previously evaluated using the regional circulation model MARS3D (Lazure and Dumas, 2008) in tests-cases (Rivier et al., 2014) using two approaches: in the first approach, monopiles are explicitly modelled in the mesh as dry cells and in the second approach a sub-grid parametrization which considers the drag force exerted by a monopile on the flow is used. The sub-grid parametrization is improved close to the bed in this paper by adding a drag force term in the momentum equations, source terms in the turbulence model and by increasing the bed shear stress at monopile location. Changes in hydrodynamics regime, especially near-bed, affect sediment transport regime and modifications due to monopiles on sediment dynamics is also investigated using the MARS3D sediment transport module (Le Hir et al., 2011) which solves the advection-diffusion equations. Test-cases are run using hydrodynamical conditions and sediment grain sizes typical from the area located off Courseulles-sur-Mer (Normandy, France) where an offshore wind farm is planned to be built. Velocity, turbulent kinetic energy and bed thickness changes due to the monopile simulated by both approaches are compared to each other and to experimental measurements made in a flume at the University of Caen or to published data (e.g. Roulund et al., 2005; Dargahi,1989). Then the model is applied in a real configuration on an area including the future offshore wind farm of Courseulles-sur-Mer. Four monopiles are represented in the model using both approaches and modifications of the hydrodynamics and sediment transport are assessed along a tidal cycle. Currents increase at the side edge of the monopile and decrease in front of and downstream the monopile. Turbulent kinetic

  19. Social impact assessment in energy projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koivujaervi, S.; Kantola, I.; Maekinen, P.

    1998-01-01

    The research report is based on literature and interviews on the social impact assessment (SIA) in energy projects in Finland, both before and after the EIA Act has been in force in Finland. The concept and content of SIA, the requirements set by the legislation, its relation with other environmental impacts, the assessment process and the used methods have been studied on the basis of the literature analysis. A total of 26 persons representing the coordination authorities, persons issuing statements, researchers, civil servants, consultants and project developers were interviewed for the research. The interviews were made by the University of Turku in the form of theme interviews, investigating the present status, practices and expectations of the SIA. The unestablished status was seen to be the problem in the SIA, which was reflected in the interviewers' varying views about the content of the SIA. Among the operators, the general character of the SIA criticism in the statements concerning the assessment programmes or reports was seen as a problem as well; the assessment of social impact has been considered to be insufficient, however, without any identification of the effects or how the effects should have been assessed. For the time preceding the EIA Act, the assessment of the social impact of hydraulic work, power plant and transmission line projects and the project of the fifth nuclear power plant have been studied. As to the power plant and transmission line projects after the validity of the EIA Act, all the 20 projects were gone through which had progressed during the spring 1998 at least to the assessment report stage. Of these projects, the assessment of the social impact of one transmission line and one power plant project was studied in detail. The report also studies the assessment of the social impact of the repository for nuclear waste on the basis of the experience gained in Finland and in other countries. On the basis of the literature study

  20. Assessment of psychosocial impact of dental aesthetics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Munizeh; Fida, Mubassar

    2008-09-01

    To assess the psychosocial impact of dental aesthetics using the 'Psychosocial Impact of Dental Aesthetics Questionnaire' (PIDAQ) and self-rated Aesthetic Component (AC) of the Index of Orthodontic Treatment Need (IOTN). Cross-sectional study. Dental Section, the Aga Khan University Hospital, Karachi, from August to September 2006. Adults with no prior orthodontic treatment were asked to complete a modified version of the 'Psychosocial Impact of Dental Aesthetics Questionnaire' (PIDAQ). A total of four variables including 'Dental Self-confidence', 'Social impact', 'Psychological impact' and 'Perceived orthodontic treatment need' were assessed by a series of statements, whereas dental aesthetics were assessed by the respondents using the IOTN Aesthetic Component (self-rated IOTN-AC). Kruskal-Walli's test was applied to determine significance. The respondents were 120 adults (70 females and 50 males; mean age 25.8 years), all four of the above-mentioned variables measuring psychosocial impact showed positive and significant correlations with the perceived severity of malocclusion as depicted by the Aesthetic Component (AC) of Index of Orthodontic Treatment Need (IOTN), with p-value of less than 0.01 for all variables. The results indicate the strong psychosocial impact of altered dental aesthetics on the emotional state of an individual. The association between self-rated IOTN-AC grading with psychosocial well-being stands established, indicating that the perceived aesthetics of malocclusion may be as significant a factor in determining treatment need as the degree of malocclusion.

  1. Modelling bark beetle disturbances in a large scale forest scenario model to assess climate change impacts and evaluate adaptive management strategies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Seidl, R.; Schelhaas, M.J.; Lindner, M.; Lexer, M.J.

    2009-01-01

    To study potential consequences of climate-induced changes in the biotic disturbance regime at regional to national scale we integrated a model of Ips typographus (L. Scol. Col.) damages into the large-scale forest scenario model EFISCEN. A two-stage multivariate statistical meta-model was used to

  2. Contribution to the economic impact assessment of policy options to regulate animal cloning for food production with an economic simulation model

    OpenAIRE

    Koen Dillen; Emanuele Ferrari; Pascal Tillie; George Philippidis; Sophie Helaine

    2013-01-01

    The EU is currently evaluating different policy options towards the use of cloning or products derived from cloned animals in the food chain. This study presents a first attempt to quantify the likely effects of different policy scenarios on international trade and EU domestic production. In the context of the Impact Asessment process the JRC was requested to simulate via a modelling study the economic impact of selected policy options. Based on a literature review and the specific constra...

  3. Analysis of methods and models for assessing the direct and indirect economic impacts of CO/sub 2/-induced environmental changes in the agricultural sector of the US economy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Callaway, J.M.; Cronin, F.J.; C