WorldWideScience

Sample records for impact assessment models

  1. Underwater noise modelling for environmental impact assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Farcas, Adrian [Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science (Cefas), Pakefield Road, Lowestoft, NR33 0HT (United Kingdom); Thompson, Paul M. [Lighthouse Field Station, Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Cromarty IV11 8YL (United Kingdom); Merchant, Nathan D., E-mail: nathan.merchant@cefas.co.uk [Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science (Cefas), Pakefield Road, Lowestoft, NR33 0HT (United Kingdom)

    2016-02-15

    Assessment of underwater noise is increasingly required by regulators of development projects in marine and freshwater habitats, and noise pollution can be a constraining factor in the consenting process. Noise levels arising from the proposed activity are modelled and the potential impact on species of interest within the affected area is then evaluated. Although there is considerable uncertainty in the relationship between noise levels and impacts on aquatic species, the science underlying noise modelling is well understood. Nevertheless, many environmental impact assessments (EIAs) do not reflect best practice, and stakeholders and decision makers in the EIA process are often unfamiliar with the concepts and terminology that are integral to interpreting noise exposure predictions. In this paper, we review the process of underwater noise modelling and explore the factors affecting predictions of noise exposure. Finally, we illustrate the consequences of errors and uncertainties in noise modelling, and discuss future research needs to reduce uncertainty in noise assessments.

  2. Underwater noise modelling for environmental impact assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farcas, Adrian; Thompson, Paul M.; Merchant, Nathan D.

    2016-01-01

    Assessment of underwater noise is increasingly required by regulators of development projects in marine and freshwater habitats, and noise pollution can be a constraining factor in the consenting process. Noise levels arising from the proposed activity are modelled and the potential impact on species of interest within the affected area is then evaluated. Although there is considerable uncertainty in the relationship between noise levels and impacts on aquatic species, the science underlying noise modelling is well understood. Nevertheless, many environmental impact assessments (EIAs) do not reflect best practice, and stakeholders and decision makers in the EIA process are often unfamiliar with the concepts and terminology that are integral to interpreting noise exposure predictions. In this paper, we review the process of underwater noise modelling and explore the factors affecting predictions of noise exposure. Finally, we illustrate the consequences of errors and uncertainties in noise modelling, and discuss future research needs to reduce uncertainty in noise assessments.

  3. Agricultural climate impacts assessment for economic modeling and decision support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomson, A. M.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Beach, R.; Zhang, X.; Zhao, K.; Monier, E.

    2013-12-01

    A range of approaches can be used in the application of climate change projections to agricultural impacts assessment. Climate projections can be used directly to drive crop models, which in turn can be used to provide inputs for agricultural economic or integrated assessment models. These model applications, and the transfer of information between models, must be guided by the state of the science. But the methodology must also account for the specific needs of stakeholders and the intended use of model results beyond pure scientific inquiry, including meeting the requirements of agencies responsible for designing and assessing policies, programs, and regulations. Here we present methodology and results of two climate impacts studies that applied climate model projections from CMIP3 and from the EPA Climate Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) project in a crop model (EPIC - Environmental Policy Indicator Climate) in order to generate estimates of changes in crop productivity for use in an agricultural economic model for the United States (FASOM - Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model). The FASOM model is a forward-looking dynamic model of the US forest and agricultural sector used to assess market responses to changing productivity of alternative land uses. The first study, focused on climate change impacts on the UDSA crop insurance program, was designed to use available daily climate projections from the CMIP3 archive. The decision to focus on daily data for this application limited the climate model and time period selection significantly; however for the intended purpose of assessing impacts on crop insurance payments, consideration of extreme event frequency was critical for assessing periodic crop failures. In a second, coordinated impacts study designed to assess the relative difference in climate impacts under a no-mitigation policy and different future climate mitigation scenarios, the stakeholder specifically requested an assessment of a

  4. Toward a consistent modeling framework to assess multi-sectoral climate impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monier, Erwan; Paltsev, Sergey; Sokolov, Andrei; Chen, Y-H Henry; Gao, Xiang; Ejaz, Qudsia; Couzo, Evan; Schlosser, C Adam; Dutkiewicz, Stephanie; Fant, Charles; Scott, Jeffery; Kicklighter, David; Morris, Jennifer; Jacoby, Henry; Prinn, Ronald; Haigh, Martin

    2018-02-13

    Efforts to estimate the physical and economic impacts of future climate change face substantial challenges. To enrich the currently popular approaches to impact analysis-which involve evaluation of a damage function or multi-model comparisons based on a limited number of standardized scenarios-we propose integrating a geospatially resolved physical representation of impacts into a coupled human-Earth system modeling framework. Large internationally coordinated exercises cannot easily respond to new policy targets and the implementation of standard scenarios across models, institutions and research communities can yield inconsistent estimates. Here, we argue for a shift toward the use of a self-consistent integrated modeling framework to assess climate impacts, and discuss ways the integrated assessment modeling community can move in this direction. We then demonstrate the capabilities of such a modeling framework by conducting a multi-sectoral assessment of climate impacts under a range of consistent and integrated economic and climate scenarios that are responsive to new policies and business expectations.

  5. Multi-model approach to assess the impact of climate change on runoff

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dams, J.; Nossent, J.; Senbeta, T. B.; Willems, P.; Batelaan, O.

    2015-10-01

    The assessment of climate change impacts on hydrology is subject to uncertainties related to the climate change scenarios, stochastic uncertainties of the hydrological model and structural uncertainties of the hydrological model. This paper focuses on the contribution of structural uncertainty of hydrological models to the overall uncertainty of the climate change impact assessment. To quantify the structural uncertainty of hydrological models, four physically based hydrological models (SWAT, PRMS and a semi- and fully distributed version of the WetSpa model) are set up for a catchment in Belgium. Each model is calibrated using four different objective functions. Three climate change scenarios with a high, mean and low hydrological impact are statistically perturbed from a large ensemble of climate change scenarios and are used to force the hydrological models. This methodology allows assessing and comparing the uncertainty introduced by the climate change scenarios with the uncertainty introduced by the hydrological model structure. Results show that the hydrological model structure introduces a large uncertainty on both the average monthly discharge and the extreme peak and low flow predictions under the climate change scenarios. For the low impact climate change scenario, the uncertainty range of the mean monthly runoff is comparable to the range of these runoff values in the reference period. However, for the mean and high impact scenarios, this range is significantly larger. The uncertainty introduced by the climate change scenarios is larger than the uncertainty due to the hydrological model structure for the low and mean hydrological impact scenarios, but the reverse is true for the high impact climate change scenario. The mean and high impact scenarios project increasing peak discharges, while the low impact scenario projects increasing peak discharges only for peak events with return periods larger than 1.6 years. All models suggest for all scenarios a

  6. Assessing women's lacrosse head impacts using finite element modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, J Michio; Hoshizaki, T Blaine; Gilchrist, Michael D

    2018-04-01

    Recently studies have assessed the ability of helmets to reduce peak linear and rotational acceleration for women's lacrosse head impacts. However, such measures have had low correlation with injury. Maximum principal strain interprets loading curves which provide better injury prediction than peak linear and rotational acceleration, especially in compliant situations which create low magnitude accelerations but long impact durations. The purpose of this study was to assess head and helmet impacts in women's lacrosse using finite element modelling. Linear and rotational acceleration loading curves from women's lacrosse impacts to a helmeted and an unhelmeted Hybrid III headform were input into the University College Dublin Brain Trauma Model. The finite element model was used to calculate maximum principal strain in the cerebrum. The results demonstrated for unhelmeted impacts, falls and ball impacts produce higher maximum principal strain values than stick and shoulder collisions. The strain values for falls and ball impacts were found to be within the range of concussion and traumatic brain injury. The results also showed that men's lacrosse helmets reduced maximum principal strain for follow-through slashing, falls and ball impacts. These findings are novel and demonstrate that for high risk events, maximum principal strain can be reduced by implementing the use of helmets if the rules of the sport do not effectively manage such situations. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Hybrid LCA model for assessing the embodied environmental impacts of buildings in South Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jang, Minho; Hong, Taehoon; Ji, Changyoon

    2015-01-01

    The assessment of the embodied environmental impacts of buildings can help decision-makers plan environment-friendly buildings and reduce environmental impacts. For a more comprehensive assessment of the embodied environmental impacts of buildings, a hybrid life cycle assessment model was developed in this study. The developed model can assess the embodied environmental impacts (global warming, ozone layer depletion, acidification, eutrophication, photochemical ozone creation, abiotic depletion, and human toxicity) generated directly and indirectly in the material manufacturing, transportation, and construction phases. To demonstrate the application and validity of the developed model, the environmental impacts of an elementary school building were assessed using the developed model and compared with the results of a previous model used in a case study. The embodied environmental impacts from the previous model were lower than those from the developed model by 4.6–25.2%. Particularly, human toxicity potential (13 kg C 6 H 6 eq.) calculated by the previous model was much lower (1965 kg C 6 H 6 eq.) than what was calculated by the developed model. The results indicated that the developed model can quantify the embodied environmental impacts of buildings more comprehensively, and can be used by decision-makers as a tool for selecting environment-friendly buildings. - Highlights: • The model was developed to assess the embodied environmental impacts of buildings. • The model evaluates GWP, ODP, AP, EP, POCP, ADP, and HTP as environmental impacts. • The model presents more comprehensive results than the previous model by 4.6–100%. • The model can present the HTP of buildings, which the previous models cannot do. • Decision-makers can use the model for selecting environment-friendly buildings

  8. Modeling Of Construction Noise For Environmental Impact Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamed F. Hamoda

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available This study measured the noise levels generated at different construction sites in reference to the stage of construction and the equipment used, and examined the methods to predict such noise in order to assess the environmental impact of noise. It included 33 construction sites in Kuwait and used artificial neural networks (ANNs for the prediction of noise. A back-propagation neural network (BPNN model was compared with a general regression neural network (GRNN model. The results obtained indicated that the mean equivalent noise level was 78.7 dBA which exceeds the threshold limit. The GRNN model was superior to the BPNN model in its accuracy of predicting construction noise due to its ability to train quickly on sparse data sets. Over 93% of the predictions were within 5% of the observed values. The mean absolute error between the predicted and observed data was only 2 dBA. The ANN modeling proved to be a useful technique for noise predictions required in the assessment of environmental impact of construction activities.

  9. Hybrid LCA model for assessing the embodied environmental impacts of buildings in South Korea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jang, Minho, E-mail: minmin40@hanmail.net [Asset Management Division, Mate Plus Co., Ltd., 9th Fl., Financial News Bldg. 24-5 Yeouido-dong, Yeongdeungpo-gu, Seoul, 150-877 (Korea, Republic of); Hong, Taehoon, E-mail: hong7@yonsei.ac.kr [Department of Architectural Engineering, Yonsei University, Seoul, 120-749 (Korea, Republic of); Ji, Changyoon, E-mail: chnagyoon@yonsei.ac.kr [Department of Architectural Engineering, Yonsei University, Seoul, 120-749 (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-01-15

    The assessment of the embodied environmental impacts of buildings can help decision-makers plan environment-friendly buildings and reduce environmental impacts. For a more comprehensive assessment of the embodied environmental impacts of buildings, a hybrid life cycle assessment model was developed in this study. The developed model can assess the embodied environmental impacts (global warming, ozone layer depletion, acidification, eutrophication, photochemical ozone creation, abiotic depletion, and human toxicity) generated directly and indirectly in the material manufacturing, transportation, and construction phases. To demonstrate the application and validity of the developed model, the environmental impacts of an elementary school building were assessed using the developed model and compared with the results of a previous model used in a case study. The embodied environmental impacts from the previous model were lower than those from the developed model by 4.6–25.2%. Particularly, human toxicity potential (13 kg C{sub 6}H{sub 6} eq.) calculated by the previous model was much lower (1965 kg C{sub 6}H{sub 6} eq.) than what was calculated by the developed model. The results indicated that the developed model can quantify the embodied environmental impacts of buildings more comprehensively, and can be used by decision-makers as a tool for selecting environment-friendly buildings. - Highlights: • The model was developed to assess the embodied environmental impacts of buildings. • The model evaluates GWP, ODP, AP, EP, POCP, ADP, and HTP as environmental impacts. • The model presents more comprehensive results than the previous model by 4.6–100%. • The model can present the HTP of buildings, which the previous models cannot do. • Decision-makers can use the model for selecting environment-friendly buildings.

  10. An integrated model for the Environmental Impact Assessment of Highways in China

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cai, Hao

    2011-01-01

    In China, environmental issues caused by construction and operation of highway catch more and more attention, and thus environmental impact assessment of highway has become an important part of feasibility study. According to the Specifications for Environmental Impact Assessment of Highways...... in the People's Republic of China, this paper proposes an integrated model for Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) of highway. The model has two main characteristics. Firstly, the whole highway is divided into several sections, and then weight of each section is distributed by its importance. Secondly...

  11. Application for approval of the Cold Lake Expansion Project: volume 2: environmental impact assessment: Part 1: biophysical and resource use assessment. Part 2: impact model descriptions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Green, J.; Eccles, R.; Hegmann, G.; Morrison, L.; Salter, R.; van Egmond, T.; Vonk, P.; Ash, G.; Crowther, R.; Dance, T.; Edwards, W.; Veldman, W.

    1997-02-01

    An environmental assessment of the Cold Lake Expansion Project has been conducted to identify major issues of concern by public and government agencies, to determine means to eliminate or reduce those impacts, and to recommend any further efforts required to obtain missing information or monitor impacts. Volume 2 of the environmental impact assessment is divided into two parts. Part 1 (biophysical and resource use assessment) constitutes the primary environmental impact assessment document for the Cold Lake expansion project. It includes technical support documentation in regard to: (1) an assessment of noise impacts, (2) an assessment of greenhouse gas emissions, (3) a conceptual conservation and reclamation plan, (4) a historical resource impact assessment, and (5) a description of effects of oil spills on fish. Part 2 (impact model description) serves a reference document for part 1. It describes the approach taken in developing and assessing the impact models, discusses proposed methods for mitigation and management of residual impacts, and the recommended monitoring requirements for each of the major resource disciplines. The impact models describe the specific pathways through which impacts will occur as a result of interactions between project-related activities and important environmental components. 476 refs., 58 tabs., 23 figs

  12. High-resolution assessment of land use impacts on biodiversity in life cycle assessment using species habitat suitability models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Baan, Laura; Curran, Michael; Rondinini, Carlo; Visconti, Piero; Hellweg, Stefanie; Koellner, Thomas

    2015-02-17

    Agricultural land use is a main driver of global biodiversity loss. The assessment of land use impacts in decision-support tools such as life cycle assessment (LCA) requires spatially explicit models, but existing approaches are either not spatially differentiated or modeled at very coarse scales (e.g., biomes or ecoregions). In this paper, we develop a high-resolution (900 m) assessment method for land use impacts on biodiversity based on habitat suitability models (HSM) of mammal species. This method considers potential land use effects on individual species, and impacts are weighted by the species' conservation status and global rarity. We illustrate the method using a case study of crop production in East Africa, but the underlying HSMs developed by the Global Mammals Assessment are available globally. We calculate impacts of three major export crops and compare the results to two previously developed methods (focusing on local and regional impacts, respectively) to assess the relevance of the methodological innovations proposed in this paper. The results highlight hotspots of product-related biodiversity impacts that help characterize the links among agricultural production, consumption, and biodiversity loss.

  13. Quantifying the impact of model inaccuracy in climate change impact assessment studies using an agro-hydrological model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Droogers, P.; Loon, van A.F.; Immerzeel, W.W.

    2008-01-01

    Numerical simulation models are frequently applied to assess the impact of climate change on hydrology and agriculture. A common hypothesis is that unavoidable model errors are reflected in the reference situation as well as in the climate change situation so that by comparing reference to scenario

  14. Energy technology impacts on agriculture with a bibliography of models for impact assessment on crop ecosystems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rupp, E.M.; Luxmoore, R.J.; Parzyck, D.C.

    1979-09-01

    Possible impacts of energy technologies on agriculture are evaluated, and some of the available simulation models that can be used for predictive purposes are identified. An overview of energy technologies and impacts on the environment is presented to provide a framework for the commentary on the models. Coal combustion is shown to have major impacts on the environment and these will continue into the next century according to current Department of Energy projections. Air pollution effects will thus remain as the major impacts on crop ecosystems. Two hundred reports were evaluated, representing a wide range of models increasing in complexity from mathematical functions (fitted to data) through parametric models (which represent phenomena without describing the mechanisms) to mechanistic models (based on physical, chemical, and physiological principles). Many models were viewed as suitable for adaptation to technology assessment through the incorporation of representative dose-response relationships. It is clear that in many cases available models cannot be taken and directly applied in technology assessment. Very few models of air pollutant-crop interactions were identified, even though there is a considerable data base of pollutant effects on crops.

  15. Assessing Impacts of Climate Change on Forests: The State of Biological Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dale, V. H.; Rauscher, H. M.

    1993-04-06

    Models that address the impacts to forests of climate change are reviewed by four levels of biological organization: global, regional or landscape, community, and tree. The models are compared as to their ability to assess changes in greenhouse gas flux, land use, maps of forest type or species composition, forest resource productivity, forest health, biodiversity, and wildlife habitat. No one model can address all of these impacts, but landscape transition models and regional vegetation and land-use models consider the largest number of impacts. Developing landscape vegetation dynamics models of functional groups is suggested as a means to integrate the theory of both landscape ecology and individual tree responses to climate change. Risk assessment methodologies can be adapted to deal with the impacts of climate change at various spatial and temporal scales. Four areas of research development are identified: (1) linking socioeconomic and ecologic models, (2) interfacing forest models at different scales, (3) obtaining data on susceptibility of trees and forest to changes in climate and disturbance regimes, and (4) relating information from different scales.

  16. Identifying best existing practice for characterization modeling in life cycle impact assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hauschild, Michael Zwicky; Goedkoop, Mark; Guinée, Jeroen

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: Life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) is a field of active development. The last decade has seen prolific publication of new impact assessment methods covering many different impact categories and providing characterization factors that often deviate from each other for the same substance...... and impact. The LCA standard ISO 14044 is rather general and unspecific in its requirements and offers little help to the LCA practitioner who needs to make a choice. With the aim to identify the best among existing characterization models and provide recommendations to the LCA practitioner, a study...... was performed for the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission (JRC). Methods Existing LCIA methods were collected and their individual characterization models identified at both midpoint and endpoint levels and supplemented with other environmental models of potential use for LCIA. No new developments...

  17. A model for assessing social impacts of nuclear technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suzuki, Atsuyuki; Kiyose, Ryohei

    1981-01-01

    A theoretical framework is given for assessing the social or environmental impacts of nuclear technology. A two-act problem concerning the incentive-penalty system is supposed to formulate the principle of ALAP. An observation plan to make decision on the problem is optimized with the Bayseian decision theory. The optimized solution resting on the amount of incentive or penalty is compared with an actual or practical plan. Then, by finding the indifference between the two plans, an impact is assessed in monetary terms. As regards the third step, the model does not provide the details since it is beyond the scope of the description. If there exists an actual plan, it can be easily compared with the results from this theory. If there does not or in the process of making it, its feasibility must be studied by another model or by different approaches. (J.P.N.)

  18. DYNAMO-HIA--a Dynamic Modeling tool for generic Health Impact Assessments.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefan K Lhachimi

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Currently, no standard tool is publicly available that allows researchers or policy-makers to quantify the impact of policies using epidemiological evidence within the causal framework of Health Impact Assessment (HIA. A standard tool should comply with three technical criteria (real-life population, dynamic projection, explicit risk-factor states and three usability criteria (modest data requirements, rich model output, generally accessible to be useful in the applied setting of HIA. With DYNAMO-HIA (Dynamic Modeling for Health Impact Assessment, we introduce such a generic software tool specifically designed to facilitate quantification in the assessment of the health impacts of policies. METHODS AND RESULTS: DYNAMO-HIA quantifies the impact of user-specified risk-factor changes on multiple diseases and in turn on overall population health, comparing one reference scenario with one or more intervention scenarios. The Markov-based modeling approach allows for explicit risk-factor states and simulation of a real-life population. A built-in parameter estimation module ensures that only standard population-level epidemiological evidence is required, i.e. data on incidence, prevalence, relative risks, and mortality. DYNAMO-HIA provides a rich output of summary measures--e.g. life expectancy and disease-free life expectancy--and detailed data--e.g. prevalences and mortality/survival rates--by age, sex, and risk-factor status over time. DYNAMO-HIA is controlled via a graphical user interface and is publicly available from the internet, ensuring general accessibility. We illustrate the use of DYNAMO-HIA with two example applications: a policy causing an overall increase in alcohol consumption and quantifying the disease-burden of smoking. CONCLUSION: By combining modest data needs with general accessibility and user friendliness within the causal framework of HIA, DYNAMO-HIA is a potential standard tool for health impact assessment based

  19. Cumulative Impact Assessment: Approaching Environmental Capacity in Development Area Using Environmental Impact Assessment Information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cho, N.; Lee, M. J.; Maeng, J. H.

    2017-12-01

    Environmental impact assessment estimates the impact of development as a business unit and establishes mitigation plan. If the development is done, its economic effects can spread to the nearby areas. So that various developments can be distributed at different time intervals. The impact of the new developments can be combined with existing environmental impacts and can have a larger impact. That is, Cumulative impact assessment is needed to consider the environmental capacity of the Nearby area. Cumulative impact assessments require policy tools such as environmental impact assessment information and cumulative impact estimation models. In Korea, environmental information (water quality, air quality, etc.) of the development site is measured for environmental impact assessment and monitored for a certain period (generally 5 years) after the project. In addition, by constructing the environmental information as a spatial database, it is possible to express the environmental impact on a regional basis spatially and to intuitively use it for development site selection. Utilizing a composite model of environmental impact assessment information and Remote Sensing data for cumulative impact estimation, That can be used as a policy decision support tool that provides quantitative information for development area management, such as time series effect and sprawl phenomenon.

  20. State-of-the-art and research needs for oil spill impact assessment modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    French-McCay, D. [Applied Science Associates Inc., South Kingstown, RI (United States)

    2009-07-01

    Many oil spill models focus on trajectory and fate in aquatic environments. Models designed to address subsurface oil concentrations typically overlay fates model concentration results on maps or grids of biological distributions to assess impacts. This paper discussed a state-of-the-art biological effects model designed to evaluate the impacts and dose of oil spill hydrocarbons on aquatic biota including birds, mammals, reptiles, fish, invertebrates and plants. The biological effects model was coupled to an oil trajectory and fates spill impact model application package (SIMAP) in order to obtain accurate spatial and temporal quantifications of oil distributions and hydrocarbon component concentrations. Processes simulated in the model included slick spreading, evaporation of volatiles from surface oil, transport on the water surface, and various types of oil dispersion and emulsification. The design of the model was discussed, as well as strategies used for applying the model for hindcasts and risk assessments. 204 refs., 3 tabs., 5 figs.

  1. State-of-the-art and research needs for oil spill impact assessment modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    French-McCay, D.

    2009-01-01

    Many oil spill models focus on trajectory and fate in aquatic environments. Models designed to address subsurface oil concentrations typically overlay fates model concentration results on maps or grids of biological distributions to assess impacts. This paper discussed a state-of-the-art biological effects model designed to evaluate the impacts and dose of oil spill hydrocarbons on aquatic biota including birds, mammals, reptiles, fish, invertebrates and plants. The biological effects model was coupled to an oil trajectory and fates spill impact model application package (SIMAP) in order to obtain accurate spatial and temporal quantifications of oil distributions and hydrocarbon component concentrations. Processes simulated in the model included slick spreading, evaporation of volatiles from surface oil, transport on the water surface, and various types of oil dispersion and emulsification. The design of the model was discussed, as well as strategies used for applying the model for hindcasts and risk assessments. 204 refs., 3 tabs., 5 figs

  2. Environmental impact assessments and geological repositories: A model process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Webster, S.

    2000-01-01

    In a recent study carried out for the European Commission, the scope and application of environmental impact assessment (EIA) legislation and current EIA practice in European Union Member States and applicant countries of Central and Eastern Europe was investigated, specifically in relation to the geological disposal of radioactive waste. This paper reports the study's investigations into a model approach to EIA in the context of geological repositories, including the role of the assessment in the overall decision processes and public involvement. (author)

  3. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein, E-mail: mahmoudi@uni-hohenheim.de [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, G.C. (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Renn, Ortwin [Department of Technology and Environmental Sociology (and DIALOGIK), University of Stuttgart (Germany); Vanclay, Frank [Department of Cultural Geography, Faculty of Spatial Sciences, University of Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Hoffmann, Volker [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Karami, Ezatollah [College of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2013-11-15

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary.

  4. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-01-01

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary

  5. Impact Assessment of Abiotic Resources in LCA: Quantitative Comparison of Selected Characterization Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rørbech, Jakob Thaysen; Vadenbo, Carl; Hellweg, Stefanie

    2014-01-01

    Resources have received significant attention in recent years resulting in development of a wide range of resource depletion indicators within life cycle assessment (LCA). Understanding the differences in assessment principles used to derive these indicators and the effects on the impact assessment...... results is critical for indicator selection and interpretation of the results. Eleven resource depletion methods were evaluated quantitatively with respect to resource coverage, characterization factors (CF), impact contributions from individual resources, and total impact scores. We included 2247...... groups, according to method focus and modeling approach, to aid method selection within LCA....

  6. Enhanced science-stakeholder communication to improve ecosystem model performances for climate change impact assessments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jonsson, Anna Maria; Anderbrant, Olle; Holmer, Jennie

    2015-01-01

    In recent years, climate impact assessments of relevance to the agricultural and forestry sectors have received considerable attention. Current ecosystem models commonly capture the effect of a warmer climate on biomass production, but they rarely sufficiently capture potential losses caused...... by pests, pathogens and extreme weather events. In addition, alternative management regimes may not be integrated in the models. A way to improve the quality of climate impact assessments is to increase the science–stakeholder collaboration, and in a two-way dialog link empirical experience and impact...... a discussion among the science–stakeholder communities on how to quantify the potential for climate change adaptation by improving the realism in the models....

  7. A paradigm shift toward a consistent modeling framework to assess climate impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monier, E.; Paltsev, S.; Sokolov, A. P.; Fant, C.; Chen, H.; Gao, X.; Schlosser, C. A.; Scott, J. R.; Dutkiewicz, S.; Ejaz, Q.; Couzo, E. A.; Prinn, R. G.; Haigh, M.

    2017-12-01

    Estimates of physical and economic impacts of future climate change are subject to substantial challenges. To enrich the currently popular approaches of assessing climate impacts by evaluating a damage function or by multi-model comparisons based on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), we focus here on integrating impacts into a self-consistent coupled human and Earth system modeling framework that includes modules that represent multiple physical impacts. In a sample application we show that this framework is capable of investigating the physical impacts of climate change and socio-economic stressors. The projected climate impacts vary dramatically across the globe in a set of scenarios with global mean warming ranging between 2.4°C and 3.6°C above pre-industrial by 2100. Unabated emissions lead to substantial sea level rise, acidification that impacts the base of the oceanic food chain, air pollution that exceeds health standards by tenfold, water stress that impacts an additional 1 to 2 billion people globally and agricultural productivity that decreases substantially in many parts of the world. We compare the outcomes from these forward-looking scenarios against the common goal described by the target-driven scenario of 2°C, which results in much smaller impacts. It is challenging for large internationally coordinated exercises to respond quickly to new policy targets. We propose that a paradigm shift toward a self-consistent modeling framework to assess climate impacts is needed to produce information relevant to evolving global climate policy and mitigation strategies in a timely way.

  8. Computable general equilibrium models for sustainability impact assessment: Status quo and prospects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boehringer, Christoph; Loeschel, Andreas

    2006-01-01

    Sustainability Impact Assessment (SIA) of economic, environmental, and social effects triggered by governmental policies has become a central requirement for policy design. The three dimensions of SIA are inherently intertwined and subject to trade-offs. Quantification of trade-offs for policy decision support requires numerical models in order to assess systematically the interference of complex interacting forces that affect economic performance, environmental quality, and social conditions. This paper investigates the use of computable general equilibrium (CGE) models for measuring the impacts of policy interference on policy-relevant economic, environmental, and social (institutional) indicators. We find that operational CGE models used for energy-economy-environment (E3) analyses have a good coverage of central economic indicators. Environmental indicators such as energy-related emissions with direct links to economic activities are widely covered, whereas indicators with complex natural science background such as water stress or biodiversity loss are hardly represented. Social indicators stand out for very weak coverage, mainly because they are vaguely defined or incommensurable. Our analysis identifies prospects for future modeling in the field of integrated assessment that link standard E3-CGE-models to themespecific complementary models with environmental and social focus. (author)

  9. Assessing the impact of marine wind farms on birds through movement modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masden, Elizabeth A; Reeve, Richard; Desholm, Mark; Fox, Anthony D; Furness, Robert W; Haydon, Daniel T

    2012-09-07

    Advances in technology and engineering, along with European Union renewable energy targets, have stimulated a rapid growth of the wind power sector. Wind farms contribute to carbon emission reductions, but there is a need to ensure that these structures do not adversely impact the populations that interact with them, particularly birds. We developed movement models based on observed avoidance responses of common eider Somateria mollissima to wind farms to predict, and identify potential measures to reduce, impacts. Flight trajectory data that were collected post-construction of the Danish Nysted offshore wind farm were used to parameterize competing models of bird movements around turbines. The model most closely fitting the observed data incorporated individual variation in the minimum distance at which birds responded to the turbines. We show how such models can contribute to the spatial planning of wind farms by assessing their extent, turbine spacing and configurations on the probability of birds passing between the turbines. Avian movement models can make new contributions to environmental assessments of wind farm developments, and provide insights into how to reduce impacts that can be identified at the planning stage.

  10. Impact assessment revisited

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thiele, Jan; Kollmann, Johannes Christian; Markussen, Bo

    2010-01-01

    ; and (4) the total invaded range is an inappropriate measure for quantifying regional impact because the habitat area available for invasion can vary markedly among invasive species. Mathematical models and empirical data using an invasive alien plant species (Heracleum mantegazzianum) indicate......The theoretical underpinnings of the assessment of invasive alien species impacts need to be improved. At present most approaches are unreliable to quantify impact at regional scales and do not allow for comparison of different invasive species. There are four basic problems that need...... and we discuss the quantification of the invaded range. These improvements are crucial for impact assessment with the overall aim of prioritizing management of invasive species....

  11. Forensic DNA phenotyping: Developing a model privacy impact assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scudder, Nathan; McNevin, Dennis; Kelty, Sally F; Walsh, Simon J; Robertson, James

    2018-05-01

    Forensic scientists around the world are adopting new technology platforms capable of efficiently analysing a larger proportion of the human genome. Undertaking this analysis could provide significant operational benefits, particularly in giving investigators more information about the donor of genetic material, a particularly useful investigative lead. Such information could include predicting externally visible characteristics such as eye and hair colour, as well as biogeographical ancestry. This article looks at the adoption of this new technology from a privacy perspective, using this to inform and critique the application of a Privacy Impact Assessment to this emerging technology. Noting the benefits and limitations, the article develops a number of themes that would influence a model Privacy Impact Assessment as a contextual framework for forensic laboratories and law enforcement agencies considering implementing forensic DNA phenotyping for operational use. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. The AgMIP Wheat Pilot: A multi-model approach for climate change impact assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asseng, S.

    2012-12-01

    Asseng S., F. Ewert, C. Rosenzweig, J.W. Jones, J.L. Hatfield, A. Ruane, K.J. Boote, P. Thorburn, R.P. Rötter, D. Cammarano, N. Brisson, B. Basso, P. Martre, D. Ripoche, P. Bertuzzi, P. Steduto, L. Heng, M.A. Semenov, P. Stratonovitch, C. Stockle, G. O'Leary, P.K. Aggarwal, S. Naresh Kumar, C. Izaurralde, J.W. White, L.A. Hunt, R. Grant, K.C. Kersebaum, T. Palosuo, J. Hooker, T. Osborne, J. Wolf, I. Supit, J.E. Olesen, J. Doltra, C. Nendel, S. Gayler, J. Ingwersen, E. Priesack, T. Streck, F. Tao, C. Müller, K. Waha, R. Goldberg, C. Angulo, I. Shcherbak, C. Biernath, D. Wallach, M. Travasso, A. Challinor. Abstract: Crop simulation models have been used to assess the impact of climate change on agriculture. These assessments are often carried out with a single model in a limited number of environments and without determining the uncertainty of simulated impacts. There is a need for a coordinated effort bringing together multiple modeling teams which has been recognized by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP; www.agmip.org). AgMIP aims to provide more robust estimates of climate impacts on crop yields and agricultural trade, including estimates of associated uncertainties. Here, we present the AgMIP Wheat Pilot Study, the most comprehensive model intercomparison of the response of wheat crops to climate change to date, including 27 wheat models. Crop model uncertainties in assessing climate change impacts are explored and compared with field experimental and Global Circulation Model uncertainties. Causes of impact uncertainties and ways to reduce these are discussed.

  13. Quantitative assessment of biological impact using transcriptomic data and mechanistic network models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomson, Ty M.; Sewer, Alain; Martin, Florian; Belcastro, Vincenzo; Frushour, Brian P.; Gebel, Stephan; Park, Jennifer; Schlage, Walter K.; Talikka, Marja; Vasilyev, Dmitry M.; Westra, Jurjen W.; Hoeng, Julia; Peitsch, Manuel C.

    2013-01-01

    Exposure to biologically active substances such as therapeutic drugs or environmental toxicants can impact biological systems at various levels, affecting individual molecules, signaling pathways, and overall cellular processes. The ability to derive mechanistic insights from the resulting system responses requires the integration of experimental measures with a priori knowledge about the system and the interacting molecules therein. We developed a novel systems biology-based methodology that leverages mechanistic network models and transcriptomic data to quantitatively assess the biological impact of exposures to active substances. Hierarchically organized network models were first constructed to provide a coherent framework for investigating the impact of exposures at the molecular, pathway and process levels. We then validated our methodology using novel and previously published experiments. For both in vitro systems with simple exposure and in vivo systems with complex exposures, our methodology was able to recapitulate known biological responses matching expected or measured phenotypes. In addition, the quantitative results were in agreement with experimental endpoint data for many of the mechanistic effects that were assessed, providing further objective confirmation of the approach. We conclude that our methodology evaluates the biological impact of exposures in an objective, systematic, and quantifiable manner, enabling the computation of a systems-wide and pan-mechanistic biological impact measure for a given active substance or mixture. Our results suggest that various fields of human disease research, from drug development to consumer product testing and environmental impact analysis, could benefit from using this methodology. - Highlights: • The impact of biologically active substances is quantified at multiple levels. • The systems-level impact integrates the perturbations of individual networks. • The networks capture the relationships between

  14. Assessment of the Value, Impact, and Validity of the Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) Suite of Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Billman, L.; Keyser, D.

    2013-08-01

    The Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) models, developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), use input-output methodology to estimate gross (not net) jobs and economic impacts of building and operating selected types of renewable electricity generation and fuel plants. This analysis provides the DOE with an assessment of the value, impact, and validity of the JEDI suite of models. While the models produce estimates of jobs, earnings, and economic output, this analysis focuses only on jobs estimates. This validation report includes an introduction to JEDI models, an analysis of the value and impact of the JEDI models, and an analysis of the validity of job estimates generated by JEDI model through comparison to other modeled estimates and comparison to empirical, observed jobs data as reported or estimated for a commercial project, a state, or a region.

  15. Enhanced science-stakeholder communication to improve ecosystem model performances for climate change impact assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jönsson, Anna Maria; Anderbrant, Olle; Holmér, Jennie; Johansson, Jacob; Schurgers, Guy; Svensson, Glenn P; Smith, Henrik G

    2015-04-01

    In recent years, climate impact assessments of relevance to the agricultural and forestry sectors have received considerable attention. Current ecosystem models commonly capture the effect of a warmer climate on biomass production, but they rarely sufficiently capture potential losses caused by pests, pathogens and extreme weather events. In addition, alternative management regimes may not be integrated in the models. A way to improve the quality of climate impact assessments is to increase the science-stakeholder collaboration, and in a two-way dialog link empirical experience and impact modelling with policy and strategies for sustainable management. In this paper we give a brief overview of different ecosystem modelling methods, discuss how to include ecological and management aspects, and highlight the importance of science-stakeholder communication. By this, we hope to stimulate a discussion among the science-stakeholder communities on how to quantify the potential for climate change adaptation by improving the realism in the models.

  16. Groundwater Impacts of Radioactive Wastes and Associated Environmental Modeling Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ma, Rui; Zheng, Chunmiao; Liu, Chongxuan

    2012-11-01

    This article provides a review of the major sources of radioactive wastes and their impacts on groundwater contamination. The review discusses the major biogeochemical processes that control the transport and fate of radionuclide contaminants in groundwater, and describe the evolution of mathematical models designed to simulate and assess the transport and transformation of radionuclides in groundwater.

  17. Modelling future impacts of air pollution using the multi-scale UK Integrated Assessment Model (UKIAM).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oxley, Tim; Dore, Anthony J; ApSimon, Helen; Hall, Jane; Kryza, Maciej

    2013-11-01

    Integrated assessment modelling has evolved to support policy development in relation to air pollutants and greenhouse gases by providing integrated simulation tools able to produce quick and realistic representations of emission scenarios and their environmental impacts without the need to re-run complex atmospheric dispersion models. The UK Integrated Assessment Model (UKIAM) has been developed to investigate strategies for reducing UK emissions by bringing together information on projected UK emissions of SO2, NOx, NH3, PM10 and PM2.5, atmospheric dispersion, criteria for protection of ecosystems, urban air quality and human health, and data on potential abatement measures to reduce emissions, which may subsequently be linked to associated analyses of costs and benefits. We describe the multi-scale model structure ranging from continental to roadside, UK emission sources, atmospheric dispersion of emissions, implementation of abatement measures, integration with European-scale modelling, and environmental impacts. The model generates outputs from a national perspective which are used to evaluate alternative strategies in relation to emissions, deposition patterns, air quality metrics and ecosystem critical load exceedance. We present a selection of scenarios in relation to the 2020 Business-As-Usual projections and identify potential further reductions beyond those currently being planned. © 2013.

  18. Mathematical model for water quality impact assessment and its computer application in coal mine water

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sundararajan, M.; Chakraborty, M.K.; Gupta, J.P.; Saxena, N.C.; Dhar, B.B.

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents a mathematical model to assess the Water Quality Impact in coal mine or in river system by accurate and rational method. Algorithm, flowchart and computer programme have been developed upon this model to assess the quality of coal mine water. 3 refs., 2 figs., 2 tabs

  19. Sensitivity to Uncertainty in Asteroid Impact Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathias, D.; Wheeler, L.; Prabhu, D. K.; Aftosmis, M.; Dotson, J.; Robertson, D. K.

    2015-12-01

    The Engineering Risk Assessment (ERA) team at NASA Ames Research Center is developing a physics-based impact risk model for probabilistically assessing threats from potential asteroid impacts on Earth. The model integrates probabilistic sampling of asteroid parameter ranges with physics-based analyses of entry, breakup, and impact to estimate damage areas and casualties from various impact scenarios. Assessing these threats is a highly coupled, dynamic problem involving significant uncertainties in the range of expected asteroid characteristics, how those characteristics may affect the level of damage, and the fidelity of various modeling approaches and assumptions. The presented model is used to explore the sensitivity of impact risk estimates to these uncertainties in order to gain insight into what additional data or modeling refinements are most important for producing effective, meaningful risk assessments. In the extreme cases of very small or very large impacts, the results are generally insensitive to many of the characterization and modeling assumptions. However, the nature of the sensitivity can change across moderate-sized impacts. Results will focus on the value of additional information in this critical, mid-size range, and how this additional data can support more robust mitigation decisions.

  20. A state-impact-state methodology for assessing environmental impact in land use planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Longgao; Yang, Xiaoyan; Chen, Longqian; Potter, Rebecca; Li, Yingkui

    2014-01-01

    The implementation of land use planning (LUP) has a large impact on environmental quality. There lacks a widely accepted and consolidated approach to assess the LUP environmental impact using Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA). In this paper, we developed a state-impact-state (SIS) model employed in the LUP environmental impact assessment (LUPEA). With the usage of Matter-element (ME) and Extenics method, the methodology based on the SIS model was established and applied in the LUPEA of Zoucheng County, China. The results show that: (1) this methodology provides an intuitive and easy understanding logical model for both the theoretical analysis and application of LUPEA; (2) the spatial multi-temporal assessment from base year, near-future year to planning target year suggests the positive impact on the environmental quality in the whole County despite certain environmental degradation in some towns; (3) besides the spatial assessment, other achievements including the environmental elements influenced by land use and their weights, the identification of key indicators in LUPEA, and the appropriate environmental mitigation measures were obtained; and (4) this methodology can be used to achieve multi-temporal assessment of LUP environmental impact of County or Town level in other areas. - Highlights: • A State-Impact-State model for Land Use Planning Environmental Assessment (LUPEA). • Matter-element (ME) and Extenics methods were embedded in the LUPEA. • The model was applied to the LUPEA of Zoucheng County. • The assessment shows improving environment quality since 2000 in Zoucheng County. • The method provides a useful tool for the LUPEA in the county level

  1. A state-impact-state methodology for assessing environmental impact in land use planning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Longgao [Institute of land resources, Jiangsu Normal University, Xuzhou 221116 (China); Yang, Xiaoyan [Institute of land resources, Jiangsu Normal University, Xuzhou 221116 (China); School of Environmental Science and Spatial Informatics, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou 221116 (China); Chen, Longqian, E-mail: cumt_chenlongqian@163.com [School of Environmental Science and Spatial Informatics, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou 221116 (China); Potter, Rebecca; Li, Yingkui [Department of Geography, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN 37996 (United States)

    2014-04-01

    The implementation of land use planning (LUP) has a large impact on environmental quality. There lacks a widely accepted and consolidated approach to assess the LUP environmental impact using Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA). In this paper, we developed a state-impact-state (SIS) model employed in the LUP environmental impact assessment (LUPEA). With the usage of Matter-element (ME) and Extenics method, the methodology based on the SIS model was established and applied in the LUPEA of Zoucheng County, China. The results show that: (1) this methodology provides an intuitive and easy understanding logical model for both the theoretical analysis and application of LUPEA; (2) the spatial multi-temporal assessment from base year, near-future year to planning target year suggests the positive impact on the environmental quality in the whole County despite certain environmental degradation in some towns; (3) besides the spatial assessment, other achievements including the environmental elements influenced by land use and their weights, the identification of key indicators in LUPEA, and the appropriate environmental mitigation measures were obtained; and (4) this methodology can be used to achieve multi-temporal assessment of LUP environmental impact of County or Town level in other areas. - Highlights: • A State-Impact-State model for Land Use Planning Environmental Assessment (LUPEA). • Matter-element (ME) and Extenics methods were embedded in the LUPEA. • The model was applied to the LUPEA of Zoucheng County. • The assessment shows improving environment quality since 2000 in Zoucheng County. • The method provides a useful tool for the LUPEA in the county level.

  2. Assessing climate impact on reinforced concrete durability with a multi-physics model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Michel, Alexander; Flint, Madeleine M.

    to shorter-term fluctuations in boundary conditions and therefore may underestimate climate change impacts. A highly sensitive fully-coupled, validated, multi-physics model for heat, moisture and ion transport and corrosion was used to assess a reinforced concrete structure located in coastal Norfolk...

  3. Assessing the impacts of climate change on natural resource systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frederick, K.D.; Rosenberg, N.J. [eds.

    1994-11-30

    This volume is a collection of papers addressing the theme of potential impacts of climatic change. Papers are entitled Integrated Assessments of the Impacts of Climatic Change on Natural Resources: An Introductory Editorial; Framework for Integrated Assessments of Global Warming Impacts; Modeling Land Use and Cover as Part of Global Environmental Change; Assessing Impacts of Climatic Change on Forests: The State of Biological Modeling; Integrating Climatic Change and Forests: Economic and Ecological Assessments; Environmental Change in Grasslands: Assessment using Models; Assessing the Socio-economic Impacts of Climatic Change on Grazinglands; Modeling the Effects of Climatic Change on Water Resources- A Review; Assessing the Socioeconomic Consequences of Climate Change on Water Resources; and Conclusions, Remaining Issues, and Next Steps.

  4. Environmental impact assessment of decommissioning treatment about radioactive model plant waste ore storage site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bei Xinyu

    2012-01-01

    Aiming at decommissioning treatment project of radioactive model plant waste ore storage site, based on the detailed investigations of source terms and project description, systematic environmental impacts have been identified. The environmental impacts both during decommissioning treatment, radioactive waste transportation and after treatment are assessed. Some specific environmental protection measures are proposed so as to minimize the adverse environmental impacts. (author)

  5. Model Evaluation and Uncertainty in Agricultural Impacts Assessments: Results and Strategies from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenzweig, C.; Hatfield, J.; Jones, J. W.; Ruane, A. C.

    2012-12-01

    The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is an international effort to assess the state of global agricultural modeling and to understand climate impacts on the agricultural sector. AgMIP connects the climate science, crop modeling, and agricultural economic modeling communities to generate probabilistic projections of current and future climate impacts. The goals of AgMIP are to improve substantially the characterization of risk of hunger and world food security due to climate change and to enhance adaptation capacity in both developing and developed countries. This presentation will describe the general approach of AgMIP, highlight AgMIP efforts to evaluate climate, crop, and economic models, and discuss AgMIP uncertainty assessments. Model evaluation efforts will be outlined using examples from various facets of AgMIP, including climate scenario generation, the wheat crop model intercomparison, and the global agricultural economics model intercomparison being led in collaboration with the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP). Strategies developed to quantify uncertainty in each component of AgMIP, as well as the propagation of uncertainty through the climate-crop-economic modeling framework, will be detailed and preliminary uncertainty assessments that highlight crucial areas requiring improved models and data collection will be introduced.

  6. Modelling of the radiological impact of radioactive waste dumping in the Arctic Seas. Report of the Modelling and Assessment Working Group of the International Arctic Seas Assessment Project (IASAP)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    The work is summarized carried out by the Modelling and Assessment Working Group in 1994-1996. The Modelling and Assessment Working Group was established within the framework of the International Arctic Seas Assessment Project (IASAP) launched by the IAEA in 1993 with the objectives of modelling the environmental dispersal and transport of nuclides to be potentially released from the dumped objects and of assessing the associated radiological impact on man and biota. Models were developed to model the dispersal of the pollutants and for the assessment of the radiological consequences of the releases from the dumped wastes in the Arctic. The results of the model intercomparison exercise were used as a basis on which to evaluate the estimate of concentration fields when detailed source term scenarios were used and also to assess the uncertainties in ensuing dose calculations. The descriptions and modelling work was divided into three main phases: description of the area, collection of relevant and necessary information; extension to and development of predictive models including an extensive model inter-comparison and finally prediction of radiological impact, used in the evaluation of the need and options for remediation

  7. The use of models to assess environmental impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gustafson, P.F.

    1978-01-01

    Environmental impacts will include the effects on man as well as on other major segments of the natural or indigenous ecosystems. In their present state of development, the models used for environmental impact analysis give at least a semiquantitative estimate of the magnitude of such impacts. The methods used in the development of models are given, and their strengths and weaknesses are described. The relationship between predictive, before-the-fact models, and monitoring programs conducted during facility operation are also discussed

  8. Building a model based on scientific consensus for Life Cycle Impact Assessment of chemicals:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hauschild, Michael Zwicky; Huijbregts, Mark; Jolliet, Olivier

    2008-01-01

    Achieving consensus among scientists is often a challenge - particularly in model development. In this article we describe a recent scientific consensus-building process for Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) models applied to chemical emissions - including the strategy, execution, and results...

  9. Core Organizational Stakeholder Impact – An assessment model

    OpenAIRE

    Carvalho, João M. S.

    2013-01-01

    Measurement of organizational social impact is a pressing issue in corporate social responsibility research. This paper proposes an alternative measurement model – Core Organizational Stakeholder Impact (COSI) – based on economic, legal and ethical responsibilities of organizations. The model allows understanding organizational social footprint, i.e., how organizations impact each stakeholder. It has 40 indicators, easy to apply, dividing internal and external stakeholders in equa...

  10. Assessing the hydrological impacts of Tropical Cyclones on the Carolinas: An observational and modeling based investigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leeper, R. D.; Prat, O. P.; Blanton, B. O.

    2012-12-01

    During the warm season, the Carolinas are particularly prone to tropical cyclone (TC) activity and can be impacted in many different ways depending on storm track. The coasts of the Carolinas are the most vulnerable areas, but particular situations (Frances and Ivan 2004) affected communities far from the coasts (Prat and Nelson 2012). Regardless of where landfall occurs, TCs are often associated with intense precipitation and strong winds triggering a variety of natural hazards (storm surge, flooding, landslides). The assessment of societal and environmental impacts of TCs requires a suite of observations. The scarcity of station coverage, sensor limitations, and rainfall retrieval uncertainties are issues limiting the ability to assess accurately the impact of extreme precipitation events. Therefore, numerical models, such as the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), can be valuable tools to investigate those impacts at regional and local scales and bridge the gap between observations. The goal of this study is to investigate the impact of TCs across the Carolinas using both observational and modeling technologies, and explore the usefulness of numerical methods in data-scarce regions. To fully assess TC impacts on the Carolinas inhabitants, storms impacting both coastal and inner communities will be selected and high-resolution WRF ensemble simulations generated from a suite of physic schemes for each TC to investigate their impact at finer scales. The ensemble member performance will be evaluated with respect to ground-based and satellite observations. Furthermore, results from the high-resolution WRF simulations, including the average wind-speed and the sea level pressure, will be used with the ADCIRC storm-surge and wave-model (Westerink et al, 2008) to simulate storm surge and waves along the Carolinas coast for TCs travelling along the coast or making landfall. This work aims to provide an assessment of the various types of impacts TCs can have

  11. Impact of modelling scale on probabilistic flood risk assessment: the Malawi case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rudari Roberto

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In the early months of 2015, destructive floods hit Malawi, causing deaths and economic losses. Flood risk assessment outcomes can be used to increase scientific-supported awareness of risk. The recent increase in availability of high resolution data such as TanDEM-X at 12m resolution makes possible the use of detailed physical based flood hazard models in risk assessment. Nonetheless the scale of hazard modelling still remains an issue, which requires a compromise between level of detail and computational efforts. This work presents two different approaches on hazard modelling. Both methods rely on 32-years of numeric weather re-analysis and rainfall-runoff transformation through a fully distributed WFLOW-type hydrological model. The first method, applied at national scale, uses fast post-processing routines, which estimate flood water depth at a resolution of about 1×1km. The second method applies a full 2D hydraulic model to propagate water discharge into the flood plains and best suites for small areas where assets are concentrated. At the 12m resolution, three hot spots with a model area of approximately 10×10 km are analysed. Flood hazard maps obtained with both approaches are combined with flood impact models at the same resolution to generate indicators for flood risk. A quantitative comparison of the two approaches is presented in order to show the effects of modelling scale on both hazard and impact losses.

  12. Avian collision risk models for wind energy impact assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Masden, E.A.; Cook, A.S.C.P.

    2016-01-01

    With the increasing global development of wind energy, collision risk models (CRMs) are routinely used to assess the potential impacts of wind turbines on birds. We reviewed and compared the avian collision risk models currently available in the scientific literature, exploring aspects such as the calculation of a collision probability, inclusion of stationary components e.g. the tower, angle of approach and uncertainty. 10 models were cited in the literature and of these, all included a probability of collision of a single bird colliding with a wind turbine during passage through the rotor swept area, and the majority included a measure of the number of birds at risk. 7 out of the 10 models calculated the probability of birds colliding, whilst the remainder used a constant. We identified four approaches to calculate the probability of collision and these were used by others. 6 of the 10 models were deterministic and included the most frequently used models in the UK, with only 4 including variation or uncertainty in some way, the most recent using Bayesian methods. Despite their appeal, CRMs have their limitations and can be ‘data hungry’ as well as assuming much about bird movement and behaviour. As data become available, these assumptions should be tested to ensure that CRMs are functioning to adequately answer the questions posed by the wind energy sector. - Highlights: • We highlighted ten models available to assess avian collision risk. • Only 4 of the models included variability or uncertainty. • Collision risk models have limitations and can be ‘data hungry’. • It is vital that the most appropriate model is used for a given task.

  13. Avian collision risk models for wind energy impact assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Masden, E.A., E-mail: elizabeth.masden@uhi.ac.uk [Environmental Research Institute, North Highland College-UHI, University of the Highlands and Islands, Ormlie Road, Thurso, Caithness KW14 7EE (United Kingdom); Cook, A.S.C.P. [British Trust for Ornithology, The Nunnery, Thetford IP24 2PU (United Kingdom)

    2016-01-15

    With the increasing global development of wind energy, collision risk models (CRMs) are routinely used to assess the potential impacts of wind turbines on birds. We reviewed and compared the avian collision risk models currently available in the scientific literature, exploring aspects such as the calculation of a collision probability, inclusion of stationary components e.g. the tower, angle of approach and uncertainty. 10 models were cited in the literature and of these, all included a probability of collision of a single bird colliding with a wind turbine during passage through the rotor swept area, and the majority included a measure of the number of birds at risk. 7 out of the 10 models calculated the probability of birds colliding, whilst the remainder used a constant. We identified four approaches to calculate the probability of collision and these were used by others. 6 of the 10 models were deterministic and included the most frequently used models in the UK, with only 4 including variation or uncertainty in some way, the most recent using Bayesian methods. Despite their appeal, CRMs have their limitations and can be ‘data hungry’ as well as assuming much about bird movement and behaviour. As data become available, these assumptions should be tested to ensure that CRMs are functioning to adequately answer the questions posed by the wind energy sector. - Highlights: • We highlighted ten models available to assess avian collision risk. • Only 4 of the models included variability or uncertainty. • Collision risk models have limitations and can be ‘data hungry’. • It is vital that the most appropriate model is used for a given task.

  14. OMNIITOX - operational life-cycle impact assessment models and information tools for practitioners

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Molander, S; Lidholm, Peter; Schowanek, Diederik

    2004-01-01

    of the characterisation model(s) and limited input data on chemical properties, which often has resulted in the omission of toxicants from the LCIA, or at best focus on well characterised chemicals. The project addresses both problems and integrates models, as well as data, in an information system – the OMNIITOX IS....... There is also a need for clarification of the relations between the (environmental) risk assessments of toxicants and LCIA, in addition to investigating the feasibility of introducing LCA into European chemicals legislation, tasks that also were addressed in the project.......This article is the preamble to a set of articles describing initial results from an on-going European Commission funded, 5th Framework project called OMNIITOX, Operational Models aNd Information tools for Industrial applications of eco/TOXicological impact assessments. The different parts...

  15. Soil erosion fragility assessment using an impact model and geographic information system

    OpenAIRE

    Jorge,Luiz Alberto Blanco

    2009-01-01

    A study was taken in a 1566 ha watershed situated in the Capivara River basin, municipality of Botucatu, São Paulo State, Brazil. This environment is fragile and can be subjected to different forms of negative impacts, among them soil erosion by water. The main objective of the research was to develop a methodology for the assessment of soil erosion fragility at the various different watershed positions, using the geographic information system ILWIS version 3.3 for Windows. An impact model wa...

  16. The modelling and assessment of whale-watching impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    New, Leslie; Hall, Ailsa J.; Harcourt, Robert; Kaufman, Greg; Parsons, E.C.M.; Pearson, Heidi C.; Cosentino, A. Mel; Schick, Robert S

    2015-01-01

    In recent years there has been significant interest in modelling cumulative effects and the population consequences of individual changes in cetacean behaviour and physiology due to disturbance. One potential source of disturbance that has garnered particular interest is whale-watching. Though perceived as ‘green’ or eco-friendly tourism, there is evidence that whale-watching can result in statistically significant and biologically meaningful changes in cetacean behaviour, raising the question whether whale-watching is in fact a long term sustainable activity. However, an assessment of the impacts of whale-watching on cetaceans requires an understanding of the potential behavioural and physiological effects, data to effectively address the question and suitable modelling techniques. Here, we review the current state of knowledge on the viability of long-term whale-watching, as well as logistical limitations and potential opportunities. We conclude that an integrated, coordinated approach will be needed to further understanding of the possible effects of whale-watching on cetaceans.

  17. Use of mathematical modelling to assess the impact of vaccines on antibiotic resistance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atkins, Katherine E; Lafferty, Erin I; Deeny, Sarah R; Davies, Nicholas G; Robotham, Julie V; Jit, Mark

    2017-11-13

    Antibiotic resistance is a major global threat to the provision of safe and effective health care. To control antibiotic resistance, vaccines have been proposed as an essential intervention, complementing improvements in diagnostic testing, antibiotic stewardship, and drug pipelines. The decision to introduce or amend vaccination programmes is routinely based on mathematical modelling. However, few mathematical models address the impact of vaccination on antibiotic resistance. We reviewed the literature using PubMed to identify all studies that used an original mathematical model to quantify the impact of a vaccine on antibiotic resistance transmission within a human population. We reviewed the models from the resulting studies in the context of a new framework to elucidate the pathways through which vaccination might impact antibiotic resistance. We identified eight mathematical modelling studies; the state of the literature highlighted important gaps in our understanding. Notably, studies are limited in the range of pathways represented, their geographical scope, and the vaccine-pathogen combinations assessed. Furthermore, to translate model predictions into public health decision making, more work is needed to understand how model structure and parameterisation affects model predictions and how to embed these predictions within economic frameworks. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Best approach to impact assessment is to use empirically based or simulation models to forecast impacts. Environmental Sciences Division Publication No. 1538

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Christensen, S.W.

    1980-01-01

    This paper advocates the utility of mathematical models, as contrasted with statistical procedures and processional judgment, for assessing environmental impacts. While it would be desirable to use statistical tests to detect and estimate impacts, this is generally difficult or impossible to do, even with existing sources of impact. Empirical modeling, supported by statistical analyses when possible, is proffered as the logical alternative. Next, for purposes of forecasting impacts, the use of models as opposed to professional judgment or experience is considered. The conclusion is reached that, while models cannot answer all of the relevant questions, they can be used effectively and can address problems that are beyond the reach of statistical methods

  19. Review of regional economic models with special reference to labor impact assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ferris, G.; Mason, B.

    1979-06-01

    This paper reviews several regional economic models and examines the capabilities of these models for assessing the total employment impacts of solar energy adoption. Five generic analytic methods are discussed: economic base analysis, shift-share analysis, demographic-economic interaction models, input-output analysis, and industrial location analysis. Ten regional models incorporating some aspect of these methods are reviewed. From the model review, the conclusion is drawn that there is no single model that fits all of the necessary criteria for planned research efforts. Models that appear to hold promise are the Economic Activity Analysis (EAA) Model, the Regional Industrial Multipliers System (RIMS), the Multiregion, Multi-industry (MRMI) Model, and the MULTIREGION model.

  20. Conceptualising the effectiveness of impact assessment processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chanchitpricha, Chaunjit; Bond, Alan

    2013-01-01

    This paper aims at conceptualising the effectiveness of impact assessment processes through the development of a literature-based framework of criteria to measure impact assessment effectiveness. Four categories of effectiveness were established: procedural, substantive, transactive and normative, each containing a number of criteria; no studies have previously brought together all four of these categories into such a comprehensive, criteria-based framework and undertaken systematic evaluation of practice. The criteria can be mapped within a cycle/or cycles of evaluation, based on the ‘logic model’, at the stages of input, process, output and outcome to enable the identification of connections between the criteria across the categories of effectiveness. This framework is considered to have potential application in measuring the effectiveness of many impact assessment processes, including strategic environmental assessment (SEA), environmental impact assessment (EIA), social impact assessment (SIA) and health impact assessment (HIA). -- Highlights: • Conceptualising effectiveness of impact assessment processes. • Identification of factors influencing effectiveness of impact assessment processes. • Development of criteria within a framework for evaluating IA effectiveness. • Applying the logic model to examine connections between effectiveness criteria

  1. Conceptualising the effectiveness of impact assessment processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chanchitpricha, Chaunjit, E-mail: chaunjit@g.sut.ac.th [School of Environmental Health, Suranaree University of Technology, 111 University Avenue, Maung District, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 (Thailand); Bond, Alan, E-mail: alan.bond@uea.ac.uk [School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ (United Kingdom); Unit for Environmental Sciences and Management School of Geo and Spatial Sciences, Internal Box 375, North West University (Potchefstroom campus) (South Africa)

    2013-11-15

    This paper aims at conceptualising the effectiveness of impact assessment processes through the development of a literature-based framework of criteria to measure impact assessment effectiveness. Four categories of effectiveness were established: procedural, substantive, transactive and normative, each containing a number of criteria; no studies have previously brought together all four of these categories into such a comprehensive, criteria-based framework and undertaken systematic evaluation of practice. The criteria can be mapped within a cycle/or cycles of evaluation, based on the ‘logic model’, at the stages of input, process, output and outcome to enable the identification of connections between the criteria across the categories of effectiveness. This framework is considered to have potential application in measuring the effectiveness of many impact assessment processes, including strategic environmental assessment (SEA), environmental impact assessment (EIA), social impact assessment (SIA) and health impact assessment (HIA). -- Highlights: • Conceptualising effectiveness of impact assessment processes. • Identification of factors influencing effectiveness of impact assessment processes. • Development of criteria within a framework for evaluating IA effectiveness. • Applying the logic model to examine connections between effectiveness criteria.

  2. A Hydro-Economic Approach to Representing Water Resources Impacts in Integrated Assessment Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kirshen, Paul H.; Strzepek, Kenneth, M.

    2004-01-14

    Grant Number DE-FG02-98ER62665 Office of Energy Research of the U.S. Department of Energy Abstract Many Integrated Assessment Models (IAM) divide the world into a small number of highly aggregated regions. Non-OECD countries are aggregated geographically into continental and multiple-continental regions or economically by development level. Current research suggests that these large scale aggregations cannot accurately represent potential water resources-related climate change impacts. In addition, IAMs do not explicitly model the flow regulation impacts of reservoir and ground water systems, the economics of water supply, or the demand for water in economic activities. Using the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) model of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) as a case study, this research implemented a set of methodologies to provide accurate representation of water resource climate change impacts in Integrated Assessment Models. There were also detailed examinations of key issues related to aggregated modeling including: modeling water consumption versus water withdrawals; ground and surface water interactions; development of reservoir cost curves; modeling of surface areas of aggregated reservoirs for estimating evaporation losses; and evaluating the importance of spatial scale in river basin modeling. The major findings include: - Continental or national or even large scale river basin aggregation of water supplies and demands do not accurately capture the impacts of climate change in the water and agricultural sector in IAMs. - Fortunately, there now exist gridden approaches (0.5 X 0.5 degrees) to model streamflows in a global analysis. The gridded approach to hydrologic modeling allows flexibility in aligning basin boundaries with national boundaries. This combined with GIS tools, high speed computers, and the growing availability of socio-economic gridded data bases allows assignment of

  3. On the development and use of farm models for policy impact assessment in the European Union – A review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reidsma, Pytrik; Janssen, Sander; Jansen, Jacques; Ittersum, van Martin K.

    2018-01-01

    Farm models are potentially relevant tools for policy impact assessment. Governments and international organizations use impact assessment (IA) as an ex-ante policy process and procedure to evaluate impacts of policy options as part of the introduction of new policies. IA is increasingly used. This

  4. Life cycle impact assessment modeling for particulate matter: A new approach based on physico-chemical particle properties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Notter, Dominic A

    2015-09-01

    Particulate matter (PM) causes severe damage to human health globally. Airborne PM is a mixture of solid and liquid droplets suspended in air. It consists of organic and inorganic components, and the particles of concern range in size from a few nanometers to approximately 10μm. The complexity of PM is considered to be the reason for the poor understanding of PM and may also be the reason why PM in environmental impact assessment is poorly defined. Currently, life cycle impact assessment is unable to differentiate highly toxic soot particles from relatively harmless sea salt. The aim of this article is to present a new impact assessment for PM where the impact of PM is modeled based on particle physico-chemical properties. With the new method, 2781 characterization factors that account for particle mass, particle number concentration, particle size, chemical composition and solubility were calculated. Because particle sizes vary over four orders of magnitudes, a sound assessment of PM requires that the exposure model includes deposition of particles in the lungs and that the fate model includes coagulation as a removal mechanism for ultrafine particles. The effects model combines effects from particle size, solubility and chemical composition. The first results from case studies suggest that PM that stems from emissions generally assumed to be highly toxic (e.g. biomass combustion and fossil fuel combustion) might lead to results that are similar compared with an assessment of PM using established methods. However, if harmless PM emissions are emitted, established methods enormously overestimate the damage. The new impact assessment allows a high resolution of the damage allocatable to different size fractions or chemical components. This feature supports a more efficient optimization of processes and products when combating air pollution. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. A holistic model for the selection of environmental assessment indicators to assess the impact of industrialization on indigenous health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kryzanowski, Julie A; McIntyre, Lynn

    2011-01-01

    Mainstream environmental assessment (EA) methodologies often inadequately address health, social and cultural impacts of concern for Canadian indigenous communities affected by industrialization. Our objective is to present a holistic, culturally-appropriate framework for the selection of indigenous health indicators for baseline health assessment, impact prediction, or monitoring of impacts over time. We used a critical population health approach to explore the determinants of health and health inequities in indigenous communities and conceptualize the pathways by which industrialization affects these determinants. We integrated and extended key elements from three indigenous health frameworks into a new holistic model for the selection of indigenous EA indicators. The holistic model conceptualizes individual and community determinants of health within external social, economic and political contexts and thus provides a comprehensive framework for selecting indicators of indigenous health. Indigenous health is the product of interactions among multiple determinants of health and contexts. Potential applications are discussed using case study examples involving indigenous communities affected by industrialization. Industrialization can worsen indigenous health inequities by perpetuating the health, social and cultural impacts of historic environmental dispossession. To mitigate impacts, EA should explicitly recognize linkages between environmental dispossession and the determinants of health and health inequities and meaningfully involve indigenous communities in the process.

  6. Assessing climate change impact by integrated hydrological modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lajer Hojberg, Anker; Jørgen Henriksen, Hans; Olsen, Martin; der Keur Peter, van; Seaby, Lauren Paige; Troldborg, Lars; Sonnenborg, Torben; Refsgaard, Jens Christian

    2013-04-01

    Future climate may have a profound effect on the freshwater cycle, which must be taken into consideration by water management for future planning. Developments in the future climate are nevertheless uncertain, thus adding to the challenge of managing an uncertain system. To support the water managers at various levels in Denmark, the national water resources model (DK-model) (Højberg et al., 2012; Stisen et al., 2012) was used to propagate future climate to hydrological response under considerations of the main sources of uncertainty. The DK-model is a physically based and fully distributed model constructed on the basis of the MIKE SHE/MIKE11 model system describing groundwater and surface water systems and the interaction between the domains. The model has been constructed for the entire 43.000 km2 land area of Denmark only excluding minor islands. Future climate from General Circulation Models (GCM) was downscaled by Regional Climate Models (RCM) by a distribution-based scaling method (Seaby et al., 2012). The same dataset was used to train all combinations of GCM-RCMs and they were found to represent the mean and variance at the seasonal basis equally well. Changes in hydrological response were computed by comparing the short term development from the period 1990 - 2010 to 2021 - 2050, which is the time span relevant for water management. To account for uncertainty in future climate predictions, hydrological response from the DK-model using nine combinations of GCMs and RCMs was analysed for two catchments representing the various hydrogeological conditions in Denmark. Three GCM-RCM combinations displaying high, mean and low future impacts were selected as representative climate models for which climate impact studies were carried out for the entire country. Parameter uncertainty was addressed by sensitivity analysis and was generally found to be of less importance compared to the uncertainty spanned by the GCM-RCM combinations. Analysis of the simulations

  7. Assessing the impact of model spin-up on surface water-groundwater interactions using an integrated hydrologic model

    KAUST Repository

    Ajami, Hoori; McCabe, Matthew; Evans, Jason P.; Stisen, Simon

    2014-01-01

    is to minimize the impact of initialization while using the smallest spin-up time possible. In this study, multicriteria analysis was performed to assess the spin-up behavior of the ParFlow.CLM integrated groundwater-surface water-land surface model over a 208 km

  8. Radiological impact assessment within the IAEA Arctic Assessment Project (IASAP)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scott, E.M.; Gurbutt, P.; Harmes, I.

    1998-01-01

    As part of the International Arctic Seas Assessment Project (IASAP) of IAEA, a working group was created to model the dispersal and transfer of radionuclides released from radioactive waste disposed of in the Kara Sea and bays of Novaya Zemlya and to assess the radiological impact. Existing models...

  9. Assessing impact of changes in human resources features on enterprise activities: simulation model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kalmykova Svetlana

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The need for creating programs of human resources development is shown; the impact of these programs on organizational effectiveness is taken into account. The stages of development tools and HRD programs on the basis of cognitive modelling are disclosed; these stages will help assess the impact of HR-practices on the key indicators of organization activity at the design stage. The method of HR-practices’ pre-selection in professional development of the employees is represented.

  10. Site-dependent life-cycle impact assessment of acidification

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Potting, Josepha Maria Barbara; Schöpp, W.; Blok, Kornelis

    1998-01-01

    The lack of spatial differentiation in current life-cycle impact assessment (LCIA) affects the relevance of the assessed impact. This article first describes a framework for constructing factors relating the region of emission to the acidifying impact on its deposition areas. Next, these factors...... are established for 44 European regions with the help of the RAINS model, an integrated assessment model that combines information on regional emission levels with information on long-range atmospheric transport to estimate patterns of deposition and concentration for comparison with critical loads and thresholds...

  11. Coastal flooding impact evaluation using an INtegrated DisRuption Assessment (INDRA) model for Varna region, Western Black Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andreeva, Nataliya; Eftimova, Petya; Valchev, Nikolay; Prodanov, Bogdan

    2017-04-01

    The study presents evaluation and comparative analysis of storm induced flooding impacts on different coastal receptors at a scale of Varna region using INtegrated DisRuption Assessment (INDRA) model. The model was developed within the FP7 RISC-KIT project, as a part of Coastal Risk Assessment Framework (CRAF) consisting of two phases. CRAF Phase 1 is a screening process that evaluates coastal risk at a regional scale by means of coastal indices approach, which helps to identify potentially vulnerable coastal sectors: hot spots (HS). CRAF Phase 2 has the objective to assess and rank identified hotspots by detailed risk analysis done by jointly performing a hazard assessment and an impact evaluation on different categories (population, businesses, ecosystems, transport and utilities) using INDRA model at a regional level. Basically, the model assess the shock of events by estimating the impact on directly exposed to flooding hazard receptors of different vulnerability, as well as the potential ripple effects during an event in order to assess the "indirect" impacts, which occur outside the hazard area and/or continue after the event for all considered categories. The potential impacts are expressed in terms of uniform "Impact Indicators", which independently score the indirect impacts of these categories assessing disruption and recovery of the receptors. The ultimate hotspot ranking is obtained through the use of a Multi Criteria analysis (MCA) incorporated in the model, considering preferences of stakeholders. The case study area - Varna regional coast - is located on the western Black Sea, Bulgaria. The coastline, with a length of about 70 km, stretches from cape Ekrene to cape St. Atanas and includes Varna Bay. After application of CRAF Phase 1 three hotspots were selected for further analysis: Kabakum beach (HS1), Varna Central beach plus Port wall (HS2) and Artificial Island (HS3). For first two hotspots beaches and associated infrastructure are the assets

  12. Assessing the impacts of 1.5°C of global warming - The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frieler, Katja; Warszawski, Lila; Zhao, Fang

    2017-04-01

    In Paris, France, December 2015 the Conference of Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the IPCC to provide a "special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways". In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016 the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the model simulations planned within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to address the request by providing tailored cross-sectoral consistent impacts projections. The protocol is designed to allow for 1) a separation of the impacts of the historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from other human drivers such as historical land use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations), 2) a quantification of the effects of an additional warming to 1.5°C including a potential overshoot and long term effects up to 2300 in comparison to a no-mitigation scenario (based on the low emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation scenario RCP6.0) keeping socio-economic conditions fixed at year 2005 levels, and 3) an assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios but accounting for parallel changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle of the road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2) and differential bio-energy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to reach RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. To provide the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and an analysis of cross-sectoral interactions potentially damping or amplifying sectoral impacts the protocol is designed to provide consistent impacts projections across a range of impact models from different sectors (global and regional hydrological models, global gridded crop models, global vegetation models, regional forestry models, global and regional marine

  13. Environmental Modeling and Bayesian Analysis for Assessing Human Health Impacts from Radioactive Waste Disposal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stockton, T.; Black, P.; Tauxe, J.; Catlett, K.

    2004-12-01

    Bayesian decision analysis provides a unified framework for coherent decision-making. Two key components of Bayesian decision analysis are probability distributions and utility functions. Calculating posterior distributions and performing decision analysis can be computationally challenging, especially for complex environmental models. In addition, probability distributions and utility functions for environmental models must be specified through expert elicitation, stakeholder consensus, or data collection, all of which have their own set of technical and political challenges. Nevertheless, a grand appeal of the Bayesian approach for environmental decision- making is the explicit treatment of uncertainty, including expert judgment. The impact of expert judgment on the environmental decision process, though integral, goes largely unassessed. Regulations and orders of the Environmental Protection Agency, Department Of Energy, and Nuclear Regulatory Agency orders require assessing the impact on human health of radioactive waste contamination over periods of up to ten thousand years. Towards this end complex environmental simulation models are used to assess "risk" to human and ecological health from migration of radioactive waste. As the computational burden of environmental modeling is continually reduced probabilistic process modeling using Monte Carlo simulation is becoming routinely used to propagate uncertainty from model inputs through model predictions. The utility of a Bayesian approach to environmental decision-making is discussed within the context of a buried radioactive waste example. This example highlights the desirability and difficulties of merging the cost of monitoring, the cost of the decision analysis, the cost and viability of clean up, and the probability of human health impacts within a rigorous decision framework.

  14. LCA of contaminated site remediation - integration of site-specific impact assessment of local toxic impacts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lemming, Gitte; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky; Chambon, Julie Claire Claudia

    2011-01-01

    impacts have typically been assessed using site-generic characterization models representing a continental scale and excluding the groundwater compartment. Soil contaminants have therefore generally been assigned as emissions to surface soil or surface water compartments. However, such site-generic...... assessments poorly reflect the fate of frequent soil contaminants such as chloroethenes as they exclude the groundwater compartment and assume that the main part escapes to the atmosphere. Another important limitation of the generic impact assessment models is that they do not include the formation......The environmental impacts from remediation can be divided into primary and secondary impacts. Primary impacts cover the local impacts associated with the on-site contamination, whereas the secondary impacts are impacts on the local, regional and global scale generated by the remediation activities...

  15. Modeling prescribed burning experiments and assessing the fire impacts on local to regional air quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, L.; Baker, K. R.; Napelenok, S. L.; Elleman, R. A.; Urbanski, S. P.

    2016-12-01

    Biomass burning, including wildfires and prescribed burns, strongly impact the global carbon cycle and are of increasing concern due to the potential impacts on ambient air quality. This modelling study focuses on the evolution of carbonaceous compounds during a prescribed burning experiment and assesses the impacts of burning on local to regional air quality. The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model is used to conduct 4 and 2 km grid resolution simulations of prescribed burning experiments in southeast Washington state and western Idaho state in summer 2013. The ground and airborne measurements from the field experiment are used to evaluate the model performance in capturing surface and aloft impacts from the burning events. Phase partitioning of organic compounds in the plume are studied as it is a crucial step towards understanding the fate of carbonaceous compounds. The sensitivities of ambient concentrations and deposition to emissions are conducted for organic carbon, elemental carbon and ozone to estimate the impacts of fire on air quality.

  16. Regionalization of land use impact models for life cycle assessment: Recommendations for their use on the global scale and their applicability to Brazil

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pavan, Ana Laura Raymundo, E-mail: laurarpavan@gmail.com [Center for Water Resource and Environmental Studies, São Carlos School of Engineering, University of São Paulo, Av. Trabalhador São-Carlense 400, São Carlos 13566-590, SP (Brazil); Ometto, Aldo Roberto [Center for Water Resource and Environmental Studies, São Carlos School of Engineering, University of São Paulo, Av. Trabalhador São-Carlense 400, São Carlos 13566-590, SP (Brazil); Department of Production Engineering, São Carlos School of Engineering, University of São Paulo, Av. Trabalhador São-Carlense 400, São Carlos 13566-590, SP (Brazil)

    2016-09-15

    Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is the main technique for evaluate the environmental impacts of product life cycles. A major challenge in the field of LCA is spatial and temporal differentiation in Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) methods, especially impacts resulting from land occupation and land transformation. Land use characterization modeling has advanced considerably over the last two decades and many approaches have recently included crucial aspects such as geographic differentiation. Nevertheless, characterization models have so far not been systematically reviewed and evaluated to determine their applicability to South America. Given that Brazil is the largest country in South America, this paper analyzes the main international characterization models currently available in the literature, with a view to recommending regionalized models applicable on a global scale for land use life cycle impact assessments, and discusses their feasibility for regionalized assessment in Brazil. The analytical methodology involves classification based on the following criteria: midpoint/endpoint approach, scope of application, area of data collection, biogeographical differentiation, definition of recovery time and reference situation; followed by an evaluation of thirteen scientific robustness and environmental relevance subcriteria. The results of the scope of application are distributed among 25% of the models developed for the European context, and 50% have a global scope. There is no consensus in the literature about the definition of parameters such biogeographical differentiation and reference situation, and our review indicates that 35% of the models use ecoregion division while 40% use the concept of potential natural vegetation. Four characterization models show high scores in terms of scientific robustness and environmental relevance. These models are recommended for application in land use life cycle impact assessments, and also to serve as references for the

  17. Assessing the Impacts of Non-Ricardian Households in an Estimated New Keynesian DSGE Model

    OpenAIRE

    Ricardo Marto

    2014-01-01

    Using Bayesian maximum likelihood and data for Portugal, I estimate a New Keynesian DSGE model allowing for the presence of non-Ricardian households and test the stability of the model's prediction when the fraction of liquidity-constrained households changes. In particular, I assess the impacts on: (i) the model parameters posterior distributions; (ii) the impulse responses to six types of structural shocks; and (iii) the sources of fluctuations in output, inflation and the nominal interest ...

  18. Impact modelling for the postclosure safety assessment of OPG's DGR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Little, R.; Walke, R.; Towler, G.; Penfold, J.

    2011-01-01

    Ontario Power Generation (OPG) is proposing to build a Deep Geologic Repository (DGR) for Low and Intermediate Level Waste near the existing Western Waste Management Facility at the Bruce nuclear site in the Municipality of Kincardine, Ontario. As part of the safety assessment for the proposed DGR, calculations were undertaken to evaluate the repository's potential postclosure impacts. Impacts were evaluated for a Normal Evolution Scenario, describing the expected long-term evolution of the repository and site following closure, and four Disruptive Scenarios, which consider events that could lead to possible loss of containment. An assessment-level (system) model was implemented in AMBER, a compartment modelling code, that represents radioactive decay, waste package degradation, potential contaminant transport through the repository, sealed shafts, geosphere and surface environment, and the associated impacts. The model used input from detailed models implemented in the FRAC3DVS-OPG and T2GGM codes for the repository saturation, gas generation, and groundwater and gas flow processes. Both safety and performance indicators were calculated to assess the potential impact of the DGR. Safety indicators include radiation dose to humans and environmental concentrations of radionuclides and non-radioactive hazardous substances. Performance indicators include contaminant amounts within various spatial domains (e.g., the repository, the host rock, and the wider geosphere) and fluxes of contaminants at various points in the DGR system. The long timescales under consideration mean that there are uncertainties about the way the DGR system will evolve. In addition to assessing alternative future evolutions through different scenarios, uncertainties were addressed through the adoption of conservative assumptions, the evaluation of variant deterministic cases within each scenario, and probabilistic calculations. The results for the Normal Evolution Scenario indicate that the

  19. Assessing Regional-Scale Impacts of Short Rotation Coppices on Ecosystem Services by Modeling Land-Use Decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schulze, Jule; Frank, Karin; Priess, Joerg A; Meyer, Markus A

    2016-01-01

    Meeting the world's growing energy demand through bioenergy production involves extensive land-use change which could have severe environmental and social impacts. Second generation bioenergy feedstocks offer a possible solution to this problem. They have the potential to reduce land-use conflicts between food and bioenergy production as they can be grown on low quality land not suitable for food production. However, a comprehensive impact assessment that considers multiple ecosystem services (ESS) and biodiversity is needed to identify the environmentally best feedstock option, as trade-offs are inherent. In this study, we simulate the spatial distribution of short rotation coppices (SRCs) in the landscape of the Mulde watershed in Central Germany by modeling profit-maximizing farmers under different economic and policy-driven scenarios using a spatially explicit economic simulation model. This allows to derive general insights and a mechanistic understanding of regional-scale impacts on multiple ESS in the absence of large-scale implementation. The modeled distribution of SRCs, required to meet the regional demand of combined heat and power (CHP) plants for solid biomass, had little or no effect on the provided ESS. In the policy-driven scenario, placing SRCs on low or high quality soils to provide ecological focus areas, as required within the Common Agricultural Policy in the EU, had little effect on ESS. Only a substantial increase in the SRC production area, beyond the regional demand of CHP plants, had a relevant effect, namely a negative impact on food production as well as a positive impact on biodiversity and regulating ESS. Beneficial impacts occurred for single ESS. However, the number of sites with balanced ESS supply hardly increased due to larger shares of SRCs in the landscape. Regression analyses showed that the occurrence of sites with balanced ESS supply was more strongly driven by biophysical factors than by the SRC share in the landscape. This

  20. Adapting crop rotations to climate change in regional impact modelling assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teixeira, Edmar I; de Ruiter, John; Ausseil, Anne-Gaelle; Daigneault, Adam; Johnstone, Paul; Holmes, Allister; Tait, Andrew; Ewert, Frank

    2018-03-01

    The environmental and economic sustainability of future cropping systems depends on adaptation to climate change. Adaptation studies commonly rely on agricultural systems models to integrate multiple components of production systems such as crops, weather, soil and farmers' management decisions. Previous adaptation studies have mostly focused on isolated monocultures. However, in many agricultural regions worldwide, multi-crop rotations better represent local production systems. It is unclear how adaptation interventions influence crops grown in sequences. We develop a catchment-scale assessment to investigate the effects of tactical adaptations (choice of genotype and sowing date) on yield and underlying crop-soil factors of rotations. Based on locally surveyed data, a silage-maize followed by catch-crop-wheat rotation was simulated with the APSIM model for the RCP 8.5 emission scenario, two time periods (1985-2004 and 2080-2100) and six climate models across the Kaituna catchment in New Zealand. Results showed that direction and magnitude of climate change impacts, and the response to adaptation, varied spatially and were affected by rotation carryover effects due to agronomical (e.g. timing of sowing and harvesting) and soil (e.g. residual nitrogen, N) aspects. For example, by adapting maize to early-sowing dates under a warmer climate, there was an advance in catch crop establishment which enhanced residual soil N uptake. This dynamics, however, differed with local environment and choice of short- or long-cycle maize genotypes. Adaptation was insufficient to neutralize rotation yield losses in lowlands but consistently enhanced yield gains in highlands, where other constraints limited arable cropping. The positive responses to adaptation were mainly due to increases in solar radiation interception across the entire growth season. These results provide deeper insights on the dynamics of climate change impacts for crop rotation systems. Such knowledge can be used

  1. A comprehensive environmental impact assessment method for shale gas development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renjin Sun

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The great success of US commercial shale gas exploitation stimulates the shale gas development in China, subsequently, the corresponding supporting policies were issued in the 12th Five-Year Plan. But from the experience in the US shale gas development, we know that the resulted environmental threats are always an unavoidable issue, but no uniform and standard evaluation system has yet been set up in China. The comprehensive environment refers to the combination of natural ecological environment and external macro-environment. In view of this, we conducted a series of studies on how to set up a comprehensive environmental impact assessment system as well as the related evaluation methodology and models. First, we made an in-depth investigation into shale gas development procedures and any possible environmental impacts, and then compared, screened and modified environmental impact assessment methods for shale gas development. Also, we established an evaluating system and assessment models according to different status of the above two types of environment: the correlation matrix method was employed to assess the impacts on natural ecological environment and the optimization distance method was modified to evaluate the impacts on external macro-environment. Finally, we substitute the two subindexes into the comprehensive environmental impact assessment model and achieved the final numerical result of environmental impact assessment. This model can be used to evaluate if a shale gas project has any impact on environment, compare the impacts before and after a shale gas development project, or the impacts of different projects.

  2. Inspection of the Math Model Tools for On-Orbit Assessment of Impact Damage Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Charles E.; Raju, Ivatury S.; Piascik, Robert S> KramerWhite, Julie A.; KramerWhite, Julie A.; Labbe, Steve G.; Rotter, Hank A.

    2007-01-01

    In Spring of 2005, the NASA Engineering Safety Center (NESC) was engaged by the Space Shuttle Program (SSP) to peer review the suite of analytical tools being developed to support the determination of impact and damage tolerance of the Orbiter Thermal Protection Systems (TPS). The NESC formed an independent review team with the core disciplines of materials, flight sciences, structures, mechanical analysis and thermal analysis. The Math Model Tools reviewed included damage prediction and stress analysis, aeroheating analysis, and thermal analysis tools. Some tools are physics-based and other tools are empirically-derived. Each tool was created for a specific use and timeframe, including certification, real-time pre-launch assessments. In addition, the tools are used together in an integrated strategy for assessing the ramifications of impact damage to tile and RCC. The NESC teams conducted a peer review of the engineering data package for each Math Model Tool. This report contains the summary of the team observations and recommendations from these reviews.

  3. Hydrological modeling of the pipestone creek watershed using the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT: Assessing impacts of wetland drainage on hydrology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cesar Perez-Valdivia

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Study region: Prairie Pothole Region of North America. Study focus: The Prairie Pothole Region of North America has experienced extensive wetland drainage, potentially impacting peak flows and annual flow volumes. Some of this drainage has occurred in closed basins, possibly impacting lake water levels of these systems. In this study we investigated the potential impact of wetland drainage on peak flows and annual volumes in a 2242 km2 watershed located in southeastern Saskatchewan (Canada using the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT model. New hydrological insights: The SWAT model, which had been calibrated and validated at daily and monthly time steps for the 1997–2009 period, was used to assess the impact of wetland drainage using three hypothetical scenarios that drained 15, 30, and 50% of the non-contributing drainage area. Results of these simulations suggested that drainage increased spring peak flows by about 50, 79 and 113%, respectively while annual flow volumes increased by about 43, 68, and 98% in each scenario. Years that were wetter than normal presented increased peak flows and annual flow volumes below the average of the simulated period. Alternatively, summer peak flows presented smaller increases in terms of percentages during the simulated period. Keywords: Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT, Wetland drainage, Peak flow, Annual volume, Prairie Pothole Region

  4. Comparison of integrated assessment models: Carbon price impacts on U.S. energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilkerson, Jordan T.; Leibowicz, Benjamin D.; Turner, Delavane D.; Weyant, John P.

    2015-01-01

    Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are increasingly used to evaluate carbon policy impacts on energy structure, but different models can yield considerably different results. This paper seeks to frame model results for policymakers and other consumers of model outputs. In this analysis we compare three models: GCAM, MERGE, and EPPA. We apply diagnostic carbon price scenarios, such as ramps and shocks, to identify key differences in model behavior that drive inter-model variability in projected policy impacts on the U.S. energy system. We report model results using several economic parameterizations and find that variation in carbon emissions across models results primarily from differences in carbon intensity of energy supply. These differences arise because models include different low-carbon energy technology options and vary widely in how flexible the electricity supply sector is at adapting to a change in policy. The timing of emissions abatement is also strongly influenced by whether the model is a simulation or an inter-temporal optimization scheme and the amount of foresight exhibited in the model. Our analysis demonstrates the usefulness of novel IAM diagnostic indicators and clarifies model features that are highly relevant for consumers of model results. - Highlights: • We compare several IAMs and highlight differences between models types. • Structural difference between models leads to significantly different energy mix. • Primary driver of inter-model variability is changes in carbon intensity. • Intensity driven by technology options, constraints on adoption, and substitutability. • Policymakers need to understand model framework, inputs, and assumptions

  5. Activities of NASA's Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) in the Assessment of Subsonic Aircraft Impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriquez, J. M.; Logan, J. A.; Rotman, D. A.; Bergmann, D. J.; Baughcum, S. L.; Friedl, R. R.; Anderson, D. E.

    2004-01-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimated a peak increase in ozone ranging from 7-12 ppbv (zonal and annual average, and relative to a baseline with no aircraft), due to the subsonic aircraft in the year 2015, corresponding to aircraft emissions of 1.3 TgN/year. This range of values presumably reflects differences in model input (e.g., chemical mechanism, ground emission fluxes, and meteorological fields), and algorithms. The model implemented by the Global Modeling Initiative allows testing the impact of individual model components on the assessment calculations. We present results of the impact of doubling the 1995 aircraft emissions of NOx, corresponding to an extra 0.56 TgN/year, utilizing meteorological data from NASA's Data Assimilation Office (DAO), the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), and the Middle Atmosphere Community Climate Model, version 3 (MACCM3). Comparison of results to observations can be used to assess the model performance. Peak ozone perturbations ranging from 1.7 to 2.2 ppbv of ozone are calculated using the different fields. These correspond to increases in total tropospheric ozone ranging from 3.3 to 4.1 Tg/Os. These perturbations are consistent with the IPCC results, due to the difference in aircraft emissions. However, the range of values calculated is much smaller than in IPCC.

  6. [Exploring models for the assessment of the economic, social, political, and scientific impact of health research].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macías-Angel, Beatriz; Agudelo-Calderón, Carlos A

    2015-05-01

    Health research produces effects on the health of populations. This document approaches the frameworks and the models used by developed countries to assess the impact of health research through documentary analysis of research with the highest impact. With this, it was possible to identify two guiding axes of analysis: one having to do with focus, and the other having to do with emphasis. With these, the published models, their uses, their reach, and their origins are related. Our study brings awareness to the features they have and the areas in which Colombia could implement them. We found that the framework for evaluating health research known as the "payback model" is a model for monitoring research that tracks the process and research results with multidimensional categorization of the impacts of research.

  7. Concepts, methods and models to assess environmental impact

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pentreath, R.J.

    2002-01-01

    individual sites, is also planned in Canada. A somewhat conceptually different approach is that of an attempt to develop a hierarchical system for environmental protection based on a narrowly defined set of Reference Fauna and Flora analogous to that of Reference Man - consisting of defined dose models, data sets to estimate exposures, and data on biological effects, to provide a set of 'derived consideration levels' of dose-effect relationships for individual fauna and flora that could be used to help decision making (along with other relevant biological information) in different circumstances. Research work is also underway to produce systematic frameworks - also using a 'reference fauna and flora approach' - for assessing environmental impact in specific geographic areas, such as European and Arctic ecosystems. (author)

  8. A Hybrid Fuzzy Inference System Based on Dispersion Model for Quantitative Environmental Health Impact Assessment of Urban Transportation Planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Behnam Tashayo

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Characterizing the spatial variation of traffic-related air pollution has been and is a long-standing challenge in quantitative environmental health impact assessment of urban transportation planning. Advanced approaches are required for modeling complex relationships among traffic, air pollution, and adverse health outcomes by considering uncertainties in the available data. A new hybrid fuzzy model is developed and implemented through hierarchical fuzzy inference system (HFIS. This model is integrated with a dispersion model in order to model the effect of transportation system on the PM2.5 concentration. An improved health metric is developed as well based on a HFIS to model the impact of traffic-related PM2.5 on health. Two solutions are applied to improve the performance of both the models: the topologies of HFISs are selected according to the problem and used variables, membership functions, and rule set are determined through learning in a simultaneous manner. The capabilities of this proposed approach is examined by assessing the impacts of three traffic scenarios involved in air pollution in the city of Isfahan, Iran, and the model accuracy compared to the results of available models from literature. The advantages here are modeling the spatial variation of PM2.5 with high resolution, appropriate processing requirements, and considering the interaction between emissions and meteorological processes. These models are capable of using the available qualitative and uncertain data. These models are of appropriate accuracy, and can provide better understanding of the phenomena in addition to assess the impact of each parameter for the planners.

  9. Modelling the inventory and impact assessment of partitioning and transmutation approaches to spent nuclear fuel management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoggett-Jones, C.; Robbins, C.; Gettinby, G.; Blythe, S.

    2002-01-01

    An inventory modelling and impact assessment system to investigate the potential effects of partitioning and transmutation is proposed. It is founded on a mass based inventory analysis using the principles of basic nuclear physics and the international standards for assessing radiological health effects. It is specific to the back-end of the nuclear fuel cycle and is applied to four alternative spent fuel management strategies. The system accounts for the dynamic nature of post-irradiation scenarios and is being used to develop software for use within the nuclear power industry. Four example waste-disposal options are considered using the method. Impact assessments and parameter sensitivity analyses are presented

  10. Modelling the inventory and impact assessment of partitioning and transmutation approaches to spent nuclear fuel management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoggett-Jones, C. E-mail: craig@stams.strath.ac.uk; Robbins, C.; Gettinby, G.; Blythe, S

    2002-03-01

    An inventory modelling and impact assessment system to investigate the potential effects of partitioning and transmutation is proposed. It is founded on a mass based inventory analysis using the principles of basic nuclear physics and the international standards for assessing radiological health effects. It is specific to the back-end of the nuclear fuel cycle and is applied to four alternative spent fuel management strategies. The system accounts for the dynamic nature of post-irradiation scenarios and is being used to develop software for use within the nuclear power industry. Four example waste-disposal options are considered using the method. Impact assessments and parameter sensitivity analyses are presented.

  11. GIS based procedure of cumulative environmental impact assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balakrishna Reddy, M; Blah, Baiantimon

    2009-07-01

    Scale and spatial limits of impact assessment study in a GIS platform are two very important factors that could have a bearing on the genuineness and quality of impact assessment. While effect of scale has been documented and well understood, no significant study has been carried out on spatial considerations in an impact assessment study employing GIS technique. A novel technique of impact assessment demonstrable through GIS approach termed hereby as 'spatial data integrated GIS impact assessment method (SGIAM)' is narrated in this paper. The technique makes a fundamental presumption that the importance of environmental impacts is dependent, among other things, on spatial distribution of the effects of the proposed action and of the affected receptors in a study area. For each environmental component considered (e.g., air quality), impact indices are calculated through aggregation of impact indicators which are measures of the severity of the impact. The presence and spread of environmental descriptors are suitably quantified through modeling techniques and depicted. The environmental impact index is calculated from data exported from ArcINFO, thus giving significant importance to spatial data in the impact assessment exercise.

  12. Evaluating impact level of different factors in environmental impact assessment for incinerator plants using GM (1, N) model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pai, T Y; Chiou, R J; Wen, H H

    2008-01-01

    In this study, the impact levels in environmental impact assessment (EIA) reports of 10 incinerator plants were quantified and discussed. The relationship between the quantified impact levels and the plant scale factors of BeiTou, LiZe, BaLi, LuTsao, RenWu, PingTung, SiJhou and HsinChu were constructed, and the impact levels of the GangShan (GS) and YongKong (YK) plants were predicted using grey model GM (1, N). Finally, the effects of plant scale factors on impact levels were evaluated using grey model GM (1, N) too. According to the predicted results of GM, the relative errors of topography/geology/soil, air quality, hydrology/water quality, solid waste, noise, terrestrial fauna/flora, aquatic fauna/flora and traffic in the GS plant were 17%, 14%, 15%, 17%, 75%, 16%, 13%, and 37%, respectively. The relative errors of the same environmental items in the YK plant were 1%, 18%, 10%, 40%, 37%, 3%, 25% and 33%, respectively. According to GM (1, N), design capacity (DC) and heat value (HV) were the plant scale factors that affected the impact levels significantly in each environmental item, and thus were the most significant plant scale factors. GM (1, N) was effective in predicting the environmental impact and analyzing the reasonableness of the impact. If there is an EIA for a new incinerator plant to be reviewed in the future, the official committee of the Taiwan EPA could review the reasonableness of impact levels in EIA reports quickly.

  13. Assessment of lightning impact frequency for process equipment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Necci, Amos; Antonioni, Giacomo; Cozzani, Valerio; Krausmann, Elisabeth; Borghetti, Alberto; Nucci, Carlo Alberto

    2014-01-01

    Fires and explosions triggered by lightning strikes are among the most frequent Natech scenarios affecting the chemical and process industry. Although lightning hazard is well known, well accepted quantitative procedures to assess the contribution of accidents caused by lightning to industrial risk are still lacking. In the present study, a quantitative methodology for the assessment of the expected frequency of lightning capture by process equipment is presented. A specific model, based on Monte Carlo simulations, was developed to assess the capture frequency of lightning for equipment with a given geometry. The model allows the assessment of lay-out effects and the reduction of the capture probability due to the presence of other structures or equipment items. The results of the Monte Carlo simulations were also used to develop a simplified cell method allowing a straightforward assessment of the lightning impact probability in a quantitative risk assessment framework. The developed approach allows an in-depth analysis of the hazard due to lightning impact by identifying equipment items with the highest expected frequency of lightning impacts in a given lay-out. The model thus supplies useful data to approach the assessment of the quantitative contribution of lightning-triggered accidents to industrial risk. - Highlights: • A specific approach to storage tank lightning impact frequency calculation was developed. • The approach is suitable for the quantitative assessment of industrial risk due to lightning. • The models developed provide lightning capture frequency based on tank geometry. • Lay-out effects due to nearby structures are also accounted. • Capture frequencies may be as high as 10 −1 events/year for standalone unprotected tanks

  14. Curonian Lagoon drainage basin modelling and assessment of climate change impact

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalja Čerkasova

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The Curonian Lagoon, which is the largest European coastal lagoon with a surface area of 1578 km2 and a drainage area of 100,458 km2, is facing a severe eutrophication problem. With its increasing water management difficulties, the need for a sophisticated hydrological model of the Curonian Lagoon's drainage area arose, in order to assess possible changes resulting from local and global processes. In this study, we developed and calibrated a sophisticated hydrological model with the required accuracy, as an initial step for the future development of a modelling framework that aims to correctly predict the movement of pesticides, sediments or nutrients, and to evaluate water-management practices. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool was used to implement a model of the study area and to assess the impact of climate-change scenarios on the run-off of the Nemunas River and the Minija River, which are located in the Curonian Lagoons drainage basin. The models calibration and validation were performed using monthly streamflow data, and evaluated using the coefficient of determination (R2 and the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (NSE. The calculated values of the R2 and NSE for the Nemunas and Minija Rivers stations were 0.81 and 0.79 for the calibration, and 0.679 and 0.602 for the validation period. Two potential climate-change scenarios were developed within the general patterns of near-term climate projections, as defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report: both pessimistic (substantial changes in precipitation and temperature and optimistic (insubstantial changes in precipitation and temperature. Both simulations produce similar general patterns in river-discharge change: a strong increase (up to 22% in the winter months, especially in February, a decrease during the spring (up to 10% and summer (up to 18%, and a slight increase during the autumn (up to 10%.

  15. Applying a two-dimensional morphodynamic model to assess impacts to Chinook salmon spawning habitat from dam removal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, A. A.; Crosato, A.; Omer, A. Y. A.; Bregoli, F.

    2017-12-01

    The need for accurate and robust predictive methods of assessing fluvial ecosystems is highlighted by the accelerating practice of dam removal. Dam removal can be a restorative measure, but the sudden release of impounded sediment and change in flow regime may negatively impact aquatic biota and their habitat. This study assesses the performance of a quasi-three-dimensional morphodynamic numerical model, coupled with habitat suitability indices, to predict short-term impacts to Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) spawning habitat from dam removal. The 2007 removal of Marmot Dam on the Sandy River (Oregon, U.S.A.) is used as a case study. Delft3D-FLOW is employed to simulate changes in river channel topography, sediment composition and hydrodynamic conditions for a 20-kilometer reach of the Sandy River. The transport of non-uniform sediment and three-dimensional flow effects are included in the model. Output parameters such as flow depth, velocity and substrate are processed to evaluate habitat quality in the year following the Marmot Dam removal. Impacts are evaluated across four life-stages of Chinook salmon. As a hindcast analysis, the morphodynamic model sufficiently reproduces the evolution of river morphology at the reach-scale while requiring only a low level of calibration. The model performs well in predicting impacts to fish passage, but carries more uncertainty for developing life stages. By coupling flow-sediment-biota interactions, this method shows strong potential for habitat assessment in unsteady and non-uniform environments. Computation time is a primary constraint, as it limits grid-cell resolution, modelling of suspended sediment and capacity to characterize the sediment grain size distribution. Research on the effects of suspended sediment on habitat quality is ongoing, and further research is recommended for modelling reservoir erosion processes numerically.

  16. Assessment of Traffic Noise Impacts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rich, Jeppe Husted; Nielsen, Otto Anker

    2004-01-01

    A steady growth in traffic intensities in most urban areas throughout the world has forced planners and politicians to seriously consider the resulting environmental impact, such as traffic noise, accidents and air pollution. The assessment of such negative factors is needed in order to reveal...... the true social benefit of infrastructure plans. The paper presents a noise assessment model for the Copenhagen region, which brings together GIS technology and non-linear hedonic regression models to reveal the implicit costs of traffic noise measured as the marginal percentage loss in property values...

  17. Workshop: Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis: Modeling Climate Change Impacts and Associated Economic Damages (2010 - part 1)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The purpose of this workshop Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis. focused on conceptual and methodological issues - integrated assessment modeling and valuation.

  18. A Probabilistic Asteroid Impact Risk Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathias, Donovan L.; Wheeler, Lorien F.; Dotson, Jessie L.

    2016-01-01

    Asteroid threat assessment requires the quantification of both the impact likelihood and resulting consequence across the range of possible events. This paper presents a probabilistic asteroid impact risk (PAIR) assessment model developed for this purpose. The model incorporates published impact frequency rates with state-of-the-art consequence assessment tools, applied within a Monte Carlo framework that generates sets of impact scenarios from uncertain parameter distributions. Explicit treatment of atmospheric entry is included to produce energy deposition rates that account for the effects of thermal ablation and object fragmentation. These energy deposition rates are used to model the resulting ground damage, and affected populations are computed for the sampled impact locations. The results for each scenario are aggregated into a distribution of potential outcomes that reflect the range of uncertain impact parameters, population densities, and strike probabilities. As an illustration of the utility of the PAIR model, the results are used to address the question of what minimum size asteroid constitutes a threat to the population. To answer this question, complete distributions of results are combined with a hypothetical risk tolerance posture to provide the minimum size, given sets of initial assumptions. Model outputs demonstrate how such questions can be answered and provide a means for interpreting the effect that input assumptions and uncertainty can have on final risk-based decisions. Model results can be used to prioritize investments to gain knowledge in critical areas or, conversely, to identify areas where additional data has little effect on the metrics of interest.

  19. Scale issues in the assessment of ecological impacts using a GIS-based habitat model - A case study for the Stockholm region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gontier, Mikael

    2007-01-01

    Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) provide two interlinked platforms for the assessment of impacts on biodiversity caused by human developments. Although it might be too early to draw conclusions on the efficiency of SEA to assess such impacts, a number of persistent problems have been identified in the case of EIA. Some of these shortcomings concern the lack of proper prediction and impact quantification, and the inadequate/insufficient assessment of cumulative effects. A number of problems are related to the scale(s) at which the assessment is performed. SEA may provide a more adequate framework than EIA to discuss scale-related issues (i.e. cumulative impacts) but it also requires the use of adapted tools. This paper presents a case study where a GIS-based habitat model for the lesser spotted woodpecker is tested, validated and applied to a planning scenario in the Stockholm region in Sweden. The results show that the method adopted offers great prospects to contribute to a better assessment of biodiversity-related impacts. Even though some limitations remain in the form of data requirement and interpretation of the results, the model produced continuous, quantified predictions over the study area and provided a relevant basis for the assessment of cumulative effects. Furthermore, this paper discusses potential conflicts between different scales involved in the assessment - related to administrative boundaries, ecological processes, data availability, the method adopted to perform the assessment and temporal aspects

  20. Towards a meaningful assessment of marine ecological impacts in life cycle assessment (LCA).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woods, John S; Veltman, Karin; Huijbregts, Mark A J; Verones, Francesca; Hertwich, Edgar G

    2016-01-01

    Human demands on marine resources and space are currently unprecedented and concerns are rising over observed declines in marine biodiversity. A quantitative understanding of the impact of industrial activities on the marine environment is thus essential. Life cycle assessment (LCA) is a widely applied method for quantifying the environmental impact of products and processes. LCA was originally developed to assess the impacts of land-based industries on mainly terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems. As such, impact indicators for major drivers of marine biodiversity loss are currently lacking. We review quantitative approaches for cause-effect assessment of seven major drivers of marine biodiversity loss: climate change, ocean acidification, eutrophication-induced hypoxia, seabed damage, overexploitation of biotic resources, invasive species and marine plastic debris. Our review shows that impact indicators can be developed for all identified drivers, albeit at different levels of coverage of cause-effect pathways and variable levels of uncertainty and spatial coverage. Modeling approaches to predict the spatial distribution and intensity of human-driven interventions in the marine environment are relatively well-established and can be employed to develop spatially-explicit LCA fate factors. Modeling approaches to quantify the effects of these interventions on marine biodiversity are less well-developed. We highlight specific research challenges to facilitate a coherent incorporation of marine biodiversity loss in LCA, thereby making LCA a more comprehensive and robust environmental impact assessment tool. Research challenges of particular importance include i) incorporation of the non-linear behavior of global circulation models (GCMs) within an LCA framework and ii) improving spatial differentiation, especially the representation of coastal regions in GCMs and ocean-carbon cycle models. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Focus: Assessing the regional impacts of global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woo, Mingko

    1992-01-01

    Five studies are presented which assess the impacts of global warming on physical, economic, and social systems in Canada. A study on the use of climatic change scenarios to estimate ecoclimatic impacts was carried out. These scenarios may include synthetic scenarios produced from historical data, global climate model (GCM) simulations, and hybrid scenarios. The advantages and drawbacks of various scenarios are discussed along with the criteria for selecting impact assessment models. An examination of water resources in the Great Lakes and the Saskatchewan River subbasin uses case studies of two areas that have experienced wide hydrological variations due to climatic variability in order to determine the impacts of global warming scenarios on net basin supply. Problems of developing regional models are discussed and results of projected changes in net basin supply are presented for GCM-based simulations and hypothetical warming scenarios. A study of the impacts of climate warming on transportation and the regional economy in northern Canada uses stochastic models to provide examples of how Mackenzie River barge traffic will be affected. The economic impacts of the resultant lengthened shipping season are outlined under three scenarios. The implications of climatic change on Ontario agriculture are assessed according to GCM scenarios. Results are presented for crop yields and production as well as land resource suitability. Finally, sociocultural implications of global warming on the Arctic and the Inuit are summarized, with reference to a past warming episode occurring around the year 1000. 45 refs., 4 figs., 3 tabs

  2. Natural biotic resources in LCA: Towards an impact assessment model for sustainable supply chain management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crenna, Eleonora; Sozzo, Sara; Sala, Serenella

    2018-01-20

    Natural resources, biotic and abiotic, are fundamental from both the ecological and socio-economic point of view, being at the basis of life-support. However, since the demand for finite resources continues to increase, the sustainability of current production and consumption patterns is questioned both in developed and developing countries. A transition towards an economy based on biotic renewable resources (bio-economy) is considered necessary in order to support a steady provision of resources, representing an alternative to an economy based on fossil and abiotic resources. However, to ensure a sustainable use of biotic resources, there is the need of properly accounting for their use along supply chains as well as defining a robust and comprehensive impact assessment model. Since so far naturally occurring biotic resources have gained little attention in impact assessment methods, such as life cycle assessment, the aim of this study is to enable the inclusion of biotic resources in the assessment of products and supply chains. This paper puts forward a framework for biotic resources assessment, including: i) the definition of system boundaries between ecosphere and technosphere, namely between naturally occurring and man-made biotic resources; ii) a list of naturally occurring biotic resources which have a commercial value, as basis for building life cycle inventories (NOBR, e.g. wild animals, plants etc); iii) an impact pathway to identify potential impacts on both resource provision and ecosystem quality; iv) a renewability-based indicator (NOBRri) for the impact assessment of naturally occurring biotic resources, including a list of associated characterization factors. The study, building on a solid review of literature and of available statistical data, highlights and discusses the critical aspects and paradoxes related to biotic resource inclusion in LCA: from the system boundaries definition up to the resource characterization.

  3. Concerted action on assessment of health and environmental impacts. Modeller and experimentalists' forum: final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simmonds, J.

    2000-07-01

    The behaviour of radionuclides in the environment and the associated risks have to be determined through a combination of experimental and modelling studies. Modelling systems, such as those developed collaboratively in the European Union, are required: (a) to determine the potential consequences of accidental releases, (b) to help in emergency planning, (c) to determine the radiological impact of proposed routine radionuclide releases. Various experimental and environmental monitoring data are used as an input to such systems both directly through the choice of parameter values and indirectly through validation of the models. It is important to establish good contacts between the modelling and experimental communities to contribute towards the harmonisation of environmental modelling and to contribute to the maintenance of the European Commission modelling systems as state of the art. Such contacts are also beneficial in directing future experimental research and modelling programmes. The aspects of environmental transfer considered in this project are terrestrial food chains, external irradiation, resuspension, atmospheric dispersion, and aquatic transfer. To fulfil the objectives of the project, NRPB took the lead, with assistance from the other partners, in organising and hosting regular meetings of researchers in the experimental and modelling communities, setting key issues for discussion at each meeting, and drawing together the conclusions of each meeting. The emphasis of the meetings was on the adequacy of the three principal EC-sponsored computing systems, COSYMA and PC-COSYMA (probabilistic risk assessment systems), PC-CREAM (system for assessing the consequences of routine releases) and RODOS (the EC decision aiding system for emergency response). The meetings considered whether these systems make adequate use of the available experimental data and findings on environmental contamination and transfer. This aim of this study was to consider the models

  4. Road ecology in environmental impact assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karlson, Mårten; Mörtberg, Ulla; Balfors, Berit

    2014-01-01

    Transport infrastructure has a wide array of effects on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, and road and railway networks are increasingly being associated with a loss of biodiversity worldwide. Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) are two legal frameworks that concern physical planning, with the potential to identify, predict, mitigate and/or compensate transport infrastructure effects with negative impacts on biodiversity. The aim of this study was to review the treatment of ecological impacts in environmental assessment of transport infrastructure plans and projects. A literature review on the topic of EIA, SEA, biodiversity and transport infrastructure was conducted, and 17 problem categories on the treatment of biodiversity were formulated by means of a content analysis. A review of environmental impact statements and environmental reports (EIS/ER) produced between 2005 and 2013 in Sweden and the UK was then conducted using the list of problems as a checklist. The results show that the treatment of ecological impacts has improved substantially over the years, but that some impacts remain problematic; the treatment of fragmentation, the absence of quantitative analysis and that the impact assessment study area was in general delimited without consideration for the scales of ecological processes. Actions to improve the treatment of ecological impacts could include improved guidelines for spatial and temporal delimitation, and the establishment of a quantitative framework including tools, methods and threshold values. Additionally, capacity building and further method development of EIA and SEA friendly spatial ecological models can aid in clarifying the costs as well as the benefits in development/biodiversity tradeoffs. - Highlights: • The treatment of ecological impacts in EIA and SEA has improved. • Quantitative methods for ecological impact assessment were rarely used • Fragmentation effects were recognized

  5. Road ecology in environmental impact assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karlson, Mårten, E-mail: mkarlso@kth.se; Mörtberg, Ulla, E-mail: mortberg@kth.se; Balfors, Berit, E-mail: balfors@kth.se

    2014-09-15

    Transport infrastructure has a wide array of effects on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, and road and railway networks are increasingly being associated with a loss of biodiversity worldwide. Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) are two legal frameworks that concern physical planning, with the potential to identify, predict, mitigate and/or compensate transport infrastructure effects with negative impacts on biodiversity. The aim of this study was to review the treatment of ecological impacts in environmental assessment of transport infrastructure plans and projects. A literature review on the topic of EIA, SEA, biodiversity and transport infrastructure was conducted, and 17 problem categories on the treatment of biodiversity were formulated by means of a content analysis. A review of environmental impact statements and environmental reports (EIS/ER) produced between 2005 and 2013 in Sweden and the UK was then conducted using the list of problems as a checklist. The results show that the treatment of ecological impacts has improved substantially over the years, but that some impacts remain problematic; the treatment of fragmentation, the absence of quantitative analysis and that the impact assessment study area was in general delimited without consideration for the scales of ecological processes. Actions to improve the treatment of ecological impacts could include improved guidelines for spatial and temporal delimitation, and the establishment of a quantitative framework including tools, methods and threshold values. Additionally, capacity building and further method development of EIA and SEA friendly spatial ecological models can aid in clarifying the costs as well as the benefits in development/biodiversity tradeoffs. - Highlights: • The treatment of ecological impacts in EIA and SEA has improved. • Quantitative methods for ecological impact assessment were rarely used • Fragmentation effects were recognized

  6. Regional analysis and environmental impact assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parzyck, D.C.; Brocksen, R.W.; Emanuel, W.R.

    1976-01-01

    This paper presents a number of techniques that can be used to assess environmental impacts on a regional scale. Regional methodologies have been developed which examine impacts upon aquatic and terrestrial biota in regions through consideration of changes in land use, land cover, air quality, water resource use, and water quality. Techniques used to assess long-range atmospheric transport, water resources, effects on sensitive forest and animal species, and impacts on man are presented in this paper, along with an optimization approach which serves to integrate the analytical techniques in an overall assessment framework. A brief review of the research approach and certain modeling techniques used within one regional studies program is provided. While it is not an all inclusive report on regional analyses, it does present an illustration of the types of analyses that can be performed on a regional scale

  7. Impacts of Model Building Energy Codes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Athalye, Rahul A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Sivaraman, Deepak [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Elliott, Douglas B. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Liu, Bing [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Bartlett, Rosemarie [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2016-10-31

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Building Energy Codes Program (BECP) periodically evaluates national and state-level impacts associated with energy codes in residential and commercial buildings. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), funded by DOE, conducted an assessment of the prospective impacts of national model building energy codes from 2010 through 2040. A previous PNNL study evaluated the impact of the Building Energy Codes Program; this study looked more broadly at overall code impacts. This report describes the methodology used for the assessment and presents the impacts in terms of energy savings, consumer cost savings, and reduced CO2 emissions at the state level and at aggregated levels. This analysis does not represent all potential savings from energy codes in the U.S. because it excludes several states which have codes which are fundamentally different from the national model energy codes or which do not have state-wide codes. Energy codes follow a three-phase cycle that starts with the development of a new model code, proceeds with the adoption of the new code by states and local jurisdictions, and finishes when buildings comply with the code. The development of new model code editions creates the potential for increased energy savings. After a new model code is adopted, potential savings are realized in the field when new buildings (or additions and alterations) are constructed to comply with the new code. Delayed adoption of a model code and incomplete compliance with the code’s requirements erode potential savings. The contributions of all three phases are crucial to the overall impact of codes, and are considered in this assessment.

  8. Limitations to the Use of Species-Distribution Models for Environmental-Impact Assessments in the Amazon.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lorena Ribeiro de A Carneiro

    Full Text Available Species-distribution models (SDM are tools with potential to inform environmental-impact studies (EIA. However, they are not always appropriate and may result in improper and expensive mitigation and compensation if their limitations are not understood by decision makers. Here, we examine the use of SDM for frogs that were used in impact assessment using data obtained from the EIA of a hydroelectric project located in the Amazon Basin in Brazil. The results show that lack of knowledge of species distributions limits the appropriate use of SDM in the Amazon region for most target species. Because most of these targets are newly described and their distributions poorly known, data about their distributions are insufficient to be effectively used in SDM. Surveys that are mandatory for the EIA are often conducted only near the area under assessment, and so models must extrapolate well beyond the sampled area to inform decisions made at much larger spatial scales, such as defining areas to be used to offset the negative effects of the projects. Using distributions of better-known species in simulations, we show that geographical-extrapolations based on limited information of species ranges often lead to spurious results. We conclude that the use of SDM as evidence to support project-licensing decisions in the Amazon requires much greater area sampling for impact studies, or, alternatively, integrated and comparative survey strategies, to improve biodiversity sampling. When more detailed distribution information is unavailable, SDM will produce results that generate uncertain and untestable decisions regarding impact assessment. In many cases, SDM is unlikely to be better than the use of expert opinion.

  9. A comparison of Capri and SEAMLESS-IFas Integrated Modelling Systems, Chapter 11 in Environmental and Agricultural Modelling: Integrated Approaches for Policy Impact Assessement

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Britz, W.; Perez Dominguez, I.; Heckelei, T.

    2010-01-01

    SEAMLESS-IF and CAPRI are both integrated agricultural modelling systems for policy impact assessment at EU level, linking model components across scales and between the economic and bio-physical domains. However, the overall design, focus and representation of agricultural sub-systems vary between

  10. Assessment of impact due to entrainment of ichthyoplankton

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Horst, T.J.

    1975-01-01

    Three approaches to the assessment of impact associated with the entrainment of ichthyoplankton into power stations are discussed. The first is the estimation of the probability of mortality for those organisms entrained. The second is the assessment to the fish populations which have the egg and larvae life stages entrained. The third approach is the assessment of impact to the community or ecosystem. Some models are presented as examples for each of the three approaches. (U.S.)

  11. The inherent dangers of using computable general equilibrium models as a single integrated modelling framework for sustainability impact assessment. A critical note on Boehringer and Loeschel (2006)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scrieciu, S. Serban

    2007-01-01

    The search for methods of assessment that best evaluate and integrate the trade-offs and interactions between the economic, environmental and social components of development has been receiving a new impetus due to the requirement that sustainability concerns be incorporated into the policy formulation process. A paper forthcoming in Ecological Economics (Boehringer, C., Loeschel, A., in press. Computable general equilibrium models for sustainability impact assessment: status quo and prospects, Ecological Economics.) claims that Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models may potentially represent the much needed 'back-bone' tool to carry out reliable integrated quantitative Sustainability Impact Assessments (SIAs). While acknowledging the usefulness of CGE models for some dimensions of SIA, this commentary questions the legitimacy of employing this particular economic modelling tool as a single integrating modelling framework for a comprehensive evaluation of the multi-dimensional, dynamic and complex interactions between policy and sustainability. It discusses several inherent dangers associated with the advocated prospects for the CGE modelling approach to contribute to comprehensive and reliable sustainability impact assessments. The paper warns that this reductionist viewpoint may seriously infringe upon the basic values underpinning the SIA process, namely a transparent, heterogeneous, balanced, inter-disciplinary, consultative and participatory take to policy evaluation and building of the evidence-base. (author)

  12. Inspection of the Math Model Tools for On-Orbit Assessment of Impact Damage Report. Version 1.0

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Charles E.; Raju, Ivatury S.; Piascik, Robert S.; Kramer White, Julie; Labbe, Steve G.; Rotter, Hank A.

    2005-01-01

    In Spring of 2005, the NASA Engineering Safety Center (NESC) was engaged by the Space Shuttle Program (SSP) to peer review the suite of analytical tools being developed to support the determination of impact and damage tolerance of the Orbiter Thermal Protection Systems (TPS). The NESC formed an independent review team with the core disciplines of materials, flight sciences, structures, mechanical analysis and thermal analysis. The Math Model Tools reviewed included damage prediction and stress analysis, aeroheating analysis, and thermal analysis tools. Some tools are physics-based and other tools are empirically-derived. Each tool was created for a specific use and timeframe, including certification, real-time pre-launch assessments, and real-time on-orbit assessments. The tools are used together in an integrated strategy for assessing the ramifications of impact damage to tile and RCC. The NESC teams conducted a peer review of the engineering data package for each Math Model Tool. This report contains the summary of the team observations and recommendations from these reviews.

  13. Ecological impact assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, J.M.; Eberhardt, L.L.

    1975-01-01

    Quantitative problems in accomplishing ecological impact assessment with particular reference to defining population effects are discussed with some comments on the two approaches most commonly used, e.g., the experimental and simulation models. Some alternatives are suggested because both methods will probably fail to detect real population effects mostly due to poor understanding of ecosystems or because of the limitations inherent in field census methods. Most judgments of ecological impact are not quantitatively defensible but are qualitative, subjective, or political in nature. An examination of aggregates of data from various nuclear power plant sites may be one way to obtain enough replication to judge ecological impact. Thus, currently available data from such studies as well as appropriate demographic, vegetation, census, and bibliographic material could offer an interesting challenge to computer professionals if such an undertaking were contemplated. Present research programs at PNL and computer involvement are described. Future possibilities and directions are discussed. (U.S.)

  14. Evaluation of ecosystem simulation models as tools for assessment of power plant impacts on fish populations. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Swartzman, G.L.

    1984-07-01

    This report summarizes work on evaluating the usefulness of models in assessing power plant impacts. Models were found to be most useful in suggesting frequency and replication for monitoring programs. Models also were useful in indicating where further data are needed. The modeling work on Lake Ontario and Lake Keowee indicated difficulties in using monitoring data for model construction and validation

  15. Reconsidering the risk assessment concept: Standardizing the impact description as a building block for vulnerability assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Hollenstein

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessments for natural hazards are becoming more widely used and accepted. Using an extended definition of risk, it becomes obvious that performant procedures for vulnerability assessments are vital for the success of the risk concept. However, there are large gaps in knowledge about vulnerability. To alleviate the situation, a conceptual extension of the scope of existing and new models is suggested. The basis of the suggested concept is a stadardization of the output of hazard assessments. This is achieved by defining states of the target objects that depend on the impact and at the same time affect the object's performance characteristics. The possible state variables can be related to a limited set of impact descriptors termed generic impact description interface. The concept suggests that both hazard and vulnerability assessment models are developed according to the specification of this interface, thus facilitating modularized risk assessments. Potential problems related to the application of the concept include acceptance issues and the lacking accuracy of transformation of outputs of existing models. Potential applications and simple examples for adapting existing models are briefly discussed.

  16. Assessment of environmental impacts following alternative agricultural policy scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bárlund, I; Lehtonen, H; Tattari, S

    2005-01-01

    Abstract Finnish agriculture is likely to undergo major changes in the near and intermediate future. The ifuture policy context can be examined at a general level by strategic scenario building. Computer-based modelling in combination with agricultural policy scenarios can in turn create a basis for the assessments of changes in environmental quality following possible changes in Finnish agriculture. The analysis of economic consequences is based on the DREMFIA model, which is applied to study effects of various agricultural policies on land use, animal production, and farmers' income. The model is suitable for an impact analysis covering an extended time span--here up to the year 2015. The changes in land use, obtained with the DREMFIA model assuming rational economic behaviour, form the basis when evaluating environmental impacts of different agricultural policies. The environmental impact assessment is performed using the field scale nutrient transport model ICECREAM. The modelled variables are nitrogen and phosphorus losses in surface runoff and percolation. In this paper the modelling strategy will be presented and highlighted using two case study catchments with varying environmental conditions and land use as an example. In addition, the paper identifies issues arising when connecting policy scenarios with impact modelling.

  17. Assessing the impact of the Nitrate Directive on farming systems using a bio-economic modelling chain

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Belhouchette, H.; Louhichi, K.; Therond, O.; Mouratiadou, I.; Wery, J.; Ittersum, van M.K.; Flichman, G.

    2011-01-01

    Bio-economic models can be used to assess the impact of policy and environmental measures through economic and environmental indicators. Focusing on agricultural systems, farmers’ decisions in terms of cropping systems and the associated crop management at field scale are essential in such studies.

  18. Impact assessment modelling of matter-less stressors in the context of Life Cycle Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cucurachi, Stefano

    2014-01-01

    In the last three decades, the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) framework has grown to establish itself as the leading tool for the assessment of the environmental impacts of product systems.LCA studies are now conducted globally both in and outside the academia and also used as a basis for policy

  19. VTAC: virtual terrain assisted impact assessment for cyber attacks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Argauer, Brian J.; Yang, Shanchieh J.

    2008-03-01

    Overwhelming intrusion alerts have made timely response to network security breaches a difficult task. Correlating alerts to produce a higher level view of intrusion state of a network, thus, becomes an essential element in network defense. This work proposes to analyze correlated or grouped alerts and determine their 'impact' to services and users of the network. A network is modeled as 'virtual terrain' where cyber attacks maneuver. Overlaying correlated attack tracks on virtual terrain exhibits the vulnerabilities exploited by each track and the relationships between them and different network entities. The proposed impact assessment algorithm utilizes the graph-based virtual terrain model and combines assessments of damages caused by the attacks. The combined impact scores allow to identify severely damaged network services and affected users. Several scenarios are examined to demonstrate the uses of the proposed Virtual Terrain Assisted Impact Assessment for Cyber Attacks (VTAC).

  20. Multi-model assessment of health impacts of air pollution in Europe and the U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Im, Ulas; Brandt, Jørgen; Christensen, Jesper H.; Geels, Camilla; Hansen, Kaj M.; Andersen, Mikael S.; Solazzo, Efisio; Hogrefe, Christian; Galmarini, Stefano

    2017-04-01

    According to the World Health Organization (WHO), air pollution is now the world's largest single environmental health risk. Assessments of health impacts and the associated external costs related to air pollution are estimated based on observed and/or modelled air pollutant levels. Chemistry and transport models (CTMs) are useful tools to calculate the concentrations of health-related pollutants taking into account the non-linearities in the chemistry and the complex interactions between meteorology and chemistry. However, the CTMs include different chemical and aerosol schemes that introduce differences in the representation of the processes. Likewise, will differences in the emissions and boundary conditions used in the models add to the overall uncertainties. These uncertainties are introduced also into the health impact estimates using output from the CTMs. Multi-model (MM) ensembles can be useful to minimize these uncertainties introduced by the individual CTMs. In the present study, the simulated surface concentrations of health related air pollutants for the year 2010 from fifteen modelling groups participating in the AQMEII exercise, serve as input to the Economic Valuation of Air Pollution model (EVA), in order to calculate the impacts of these pollutants on human health and the associated external costs in Europe and U.S. In addition, the impacts of a 20% global emission reduction scenario on the human health and associated costs have been calculated. Preliminary results show that in Europe and U.S., the MM mean number of premature deaths due to air pollution is calculated to be 400 000 and 160 000, respectively. Estimated health impacts among different models can vary up to a factor of 3 and 1.2 in Europe and U.S., respectively. PM is calculated to be the major pollutant affecting the health impacts and the differences in models regarding the treatment of aerosol composition, physics and dynamics is a key factor. The total MM mean costs due to health

  1. A new approach for environmental justice impact assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilkinson, C.H.; Brumburgh, G.P.; Edmunds, T.A.; Kay, D.

    1996-03-01

    President Clinton's Executive Order 12898 calls for examination of disproportionately high and adverse impacts to minority and low-income communities. In addition to demographic mapping, environmental justice analyses should also include quantitative impact assessment to show presence or absence of disproportionate impacts. This study demonstrates use of a geographic information system (GIS) and a computer model. For this demonstration, a safety analysis report and a computer code were used to develop impact assessment data from a hypothetical facility accident producing a radiological airborne plume. The computer code modeled the plume, plotted dose contours, and provided latitude and longitude coordinates for transfer to the GIS. The GIS integrated and mapped the impact and demographic data toprovide a graphical representation of the plume with respect to the population. Impacts were then analyzed. The GIS was used to estimate the total dose to the exposed population under the plume, the dose to the low-income population under the plume, and the dose to the minority population under the plume. Impacts among the population groups were compared to determine whether a dispropotionate share of the impacts were borne by minority or low-income populations

  2. A Methodology for Safety Culture Impact Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Han, Kiyoon; Jae, Moosung [Hanyang Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-05-15

    The purpose of this study is to develop methodology for assessing safety culture impact on nuclear power plants. A new methodology for assessing safety culture impact index has been developed and applied for the reference nuclear power plants. The developed SCII model might contribute to comparing the level of safety culture among nuclear power plants as well as to improving the safety of nuclear power plants. Safety culture is defined to be fundamental attitudes and behaviors of the plant staff which demonstrate that nuclear safety is the most important consideration in all activities conducted in nuclear power operation. Through several accidents of nuclear power plant including the Fukusima Daiichi in 2011 and Chernovyl accidents in 1986, the safety of nuclear power plant is emerging into a matter of interest. From the accident review report, it can be easily found out that safety culture is important and one of dominant contributors to accidents. However, the impact methodology for assessing safety culture has not been established analytically yet. It is difficult to develop the methodology for assessing safety culture impact quantitatively.

  3. A Methodology for Safety Culture Impact Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Han, Kiyoon; Jae, Moosung

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to develop methodology for assessing safety culture impact on nuclear power plants. A new methodology for assessing safety culture impact index has been developed and applied for the reference nuclear power plants. The developed SCII model might contribute to comparing the level of safety culture among nuclear power plants as well as to improving the safety of nuclear power plants. Safety culture is defined to be fundamental attitudes and behaviors of the plant staff which demonstrate that nuclear safety is the most important consideration in all activities conducted in nuclear power operation. Through several accidents of nuclear power plant including the Fukusima Daiichi in 2011 and Chernovyl accidents in 1986, the safety of nuclear power plant is emerging into a matter of interest. From the accident review report, it can be easily found out that safety culture is important and one of dominant contributors to accidents. However, the impact methodology for assessing safety culture has not been established analytically yet. It is difficult to develop the methodology for assessing safety culture impact quantitatively

  4. Total environmental impacts of biofuels from corn stover using a hybrid life cycle assessment model combining process life cycle assessment and economic input-output life cycle assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Changqi; Huang, Yaji; Wang, Xinye; Tai, Yang; Liu, Lingqin; Liu, Hao

    2018-01-01

    Studies on the environmental analysis of biofuels by fast pyrolysis and hydroprocessing (BFPH) have so far focused only on the environmental impacts from direct emissions and have included few indirect emissions. The influence of ignoring some indirect emissions on the environmental performance of BFPH has not been well investigated and hence is not really understood. In addition, in order to avoid shifting environmental problems from one medium to another, a comprehensive assessment of environmental impacts caused by the processes must quantify the environmental emissions to all media (air, water, and land) in relation to each life cycle stage. A well-to-wheels assessment of the total environmental impacts resulting from direct emissions and indirect emissions of a BFPH system with corn stover is conducted using a hybrid life cycle assessment (LCA) model combining the economic input-output LCA and the process LCA. The Tool for the Reduction and Assessment of Chemical and other environmental Impacts (TRACI) has been used to estimate the environmental impacts in terms of acidification, eutrophication, global climate change, ozone depletion, human health criteria, photochemical smog formation, ecotoxicity, human health cancer, and human health noncancer caused by 1 MJ biofuel production. Taking account of all the indirect greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the net GHG emissions (81.8 g CO 2 eq/MJ) of the biofuels are still less than those of petroleum-based fuels (94 g CO 2 eq/MJ). Maize production and pyrolysis and hydroprocessing make major contributions to all impact categories except the human health criteria. All impact categories resulting from indirect emissions except eutrophication and smog air make more than 24% contribution to the total environmental impacts. Therefore, the indirect emissions are important and cannot be ignored. Sensitivity analysis has shown that corn stover yield and bio-oil yield affect the total environmental impacts of the biofuels

  5. Population Dynamics and Air Pollution: The Impact of Demographics on Health Impact Assessment of Air Pollution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Esben Meulengracht Flachs

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. To explore how three different assumptions on demographics affect the health impact of Danish emitted air pollution in Denmark from 2005 to 2030, with health impact modeled from 2005 to 2050. Methods. Modeled air pollution from Danish sources was used as exposure in a newly developed health impact assessment model, which models four major diseases and mortality causes in addition to all-cause mortality. The modeling was at the municipal level, which divides the approximately 5.5 M residents in Denmark into 99 municipalities. Three sets of demographic assumptions were used: (1 a static year 2005 population, (2 morbidity and mortality fixed at the year 2005 level, or (3 an expected development. Results. The health impact of air pollution was estimated at 672,000, 290,000, and 280,000 lost life years depending on demographic assumptions and the corresponding social costs at 430.4 M€, 317.5 M€, and 261.6 M€ through the modeled years 2005–2050. Conclusion. The modeled health impact of air pollution differed widely with the demographic assumptions, and thus demographics and assumptions on demographics played a key role in making health impact assessments on air pollution.

  6. Integrated earth system dynamic modeling for life cycle impact assessment of ecosystem services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arbault, Damien; Rivière, Mylène; Rugani, Benedetto; Benetto, Enrico; Tiruta-Barna, Ligia

    2014-02-15

    Despite the increasing awareness of our dependence on Ecosystem Services (ES), Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) does not explicitly and fully assess the damages caused by human activities on ES generation. Recent improvements in LCIA focus on specific cause-effect chains, mainly related to land use changes, leading to Characterization Factors (CFs) at the midpoint assessment level. However, despite the complexity and temporal dynamics of ES, current LCIA approaches consider the environmental mechanisms underneath ES to be independent from each other and devoid of dynamic character, leading to constant CFs whose representativeness is debatable. This paper takes a step forward and is aimed at demonstrating the feasibility of using an integrated earth system dynamic modeling perspective to retrieve time- and scenario-dependent CFs that consider the complex interlinkages between natural processes delivering ES. The GUMBO (Global Unified Metamodel of the Biosphere) model is used to quantify changes in ES production in physical terms - leading to midpoint CFs - and changes in human welfare indicators, which are considered here as endpoint CFs. The interpretation of the obtained results highlights the key methodological challenges to be solved to consider this approach as a robust alternative to the mainstream rationale currently adopted in LCIA. Further research should focus on increasing the granularity of environmental interventions in the modeling tools to match current standards in LCA and on adapting the conceptual approach to a spatially-explicit integrated model. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Experience and lessons from health impact assessment for human rights impact assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salcito, Kendyl; Utzinger, Jürg; Krieger, Gary R; Wielga, Mark; Singer, Burton H; Winkler, Mirko S; Weiss, Mitchell G

    2015-09-16

    As globalisation has opened remote parts of the world to foreign investment, global leaders at the United Nations and beyond have called on multinational companies to foresee and mitigate negative impacts on the communities surrounding their overseas operations. This movement towards corporate impact assessment began with a push for environmental and social inquiries. It has been followed by demands for more detailed assessments, including health and human rights. In the policy world the two have been joined as a right-to-health impact assessment. In the corporate world, the right-to-health approach fulfils neither managers' need to comprehensively understand impacts of a project, nor rightsholders' need to know that the full suite of their human rights will be safe from violation. Despite the limitations of a right-to-health tool for companies, integration of health into human rights provides numerous potential benefits to companies and the communities they affect. Here, a detailed health analysis through the human rights lens is carried out, drawing on a case study from the United Republic of Tanzania. This paper examines the positive and negative health and human rights impacts of a corporate operation in a low-income setting, as viewed through the human rights lens, considering observations on the added value of the approach. It explores the relationship between health impact assessment (HIA) and human rights impact assessment (HRIA). First, it considers the ways in which HIA, as a study directly concerned with human welfare, is a more appropriate guide than environmental or social impact assessment for evaluating human rights impacts. Second, it considers the contributions HRIA can make to HIA, by viewing determinants of health not as direct versus indirect, but as interrelated.

  8. Health impact assessment – A survey on quantifying tools

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fehr, Rainer, E-mail: rainer.fehr@uni-bielefeld.de [Fakultaet fuer Gesundheitswissenschaften, Universitaet Bielefeld, Universitaetsstr. 25, 33615 Bielefeld (Germany); Mekel, Odile C.L., E-mail: odile.mekel@lzg.nrw.de [Gesundheitsdaten und analysen, Versorgungsstrukturen, Landeszentrum Gesundheit Nordrhein-Westfalen (LZG.NRW), Westerfeldstr. 35-37, 33611 Bielefeld (Germany); Fintan Hurley, J., E-mail: fintan.hurley@iom-world.org [Institute of Occupational Medicine (IOM), Research Avenue North, Riccarton, Edinburgh EH14 4AP, Scotland (United Kingdom); Mackenbach, Johan P., E-mail: j.mackenbach@erasmusmc.nl [Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, P.O. Box 2040, 3000 CA Rotterdam (Netherlands)

    2016-02-15

    Integrating human health into prospective impact assessments is known to be challenging. This is true for both approaches: dedicated health impact assessments (HIA) as well as inclusion of health into more general impact assessments. Acknowledging the full range of participatory, qualitative, and quantitative approaches, this study focuses on the latter, especially on computational tools for quantitative health modelling. We conducted a survey among tool developers concerning the status quo of development and availability of such tools; experiences made with model usage in real-life situations; and priorities for further development. Responding toolmaker groups described 17 such tools, most of them being maintained and reported as ready for use and covering a wide range of topics, including risk & protective factors, exposures, policies, and health outcomes. In recent years, existing models have been improved and were applied in new ways, and completely new models emerged. There was high agreement among respondents on the need to further develop methods for assessment of inequalities and uncertainty. The contribution of quantitative modeling to health foresight would benefit from building joint strategies of further tool development, improving the visibility of quantitative tools and methods, and engaging continuously with actual and potential users. - Highlights: • A survey investigated computational tools for health impact quantification. • Formal evaluation of such tools has been rare. • Handling inequalities and uncertainties are priority areas for further development. • Health foresight would benefit from tool developers and users forming a community. • Joint development strategies across computational tools are needed.

  9. Health impact assessment – A survey on quantifying tools

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fehr, Rainer; Mekel, Odile C.L.; Fintan Hurley, J.; Mackenbach, Johan P.

    2016-01-01

    Integrating human health into prospective impact assessments is known to be challenging. This is true for both approaches: dedicated health impact assessments (HIA) as well as inclusion of health into more general impact assessments. Acknowledging the full range of participatory, qualitative, and quantitative approaches, this study focuses on the latter, especially on computational tools for quantitative health modelling. We conducted a survey among tool developers concerning the status quo of development and availability of such tools; experiences made with model usage in real-life situations; and priorities for further development. Responding toolmaker groups described 17 such tools, most of them being maintained and reported as ready for use and covering a wide range of topics, including risk & protective factors, exposures, policies, and health outcomes. In recent years, existing models have been improved and were applied in new ways, and completely new models emerged. There was high agreement among respondents on the need to further develop methods for assessment of inequalities and uncertainty. The contribution of quantitative modeling to health foresight would benefit from building joint strategies of further tool development, improving the visibility of quantitative tools and methods, and engaging continuously with actual and potential users. - Highlights: • A survey investigated computational tools for health impact quantification. • Formal evaluation of such tools has been rare. • Handling inequalities and uncertainties are priority areas for further development. • Health foresight would benefit from tool developers and users forming a community. • Joint development strategies across computational tools are needed.

  10. Characterization of waterborne nitrogen emissions for marine eutrophication modelling in life cycle impact assessment at the damage level and global scale

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cosme, Nuno Miguel Dias; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky

    2017-01-01

    Current life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) methods lack a consistent and globally applicable characterization model relating nitrogen (N, as dissolved inorganic nitrogen, DIN) enrichment of coastal waters to the marine eutrophication impacts at the endpoint level. This paper introduces a method...... to calculate spatially explicit characterization factors (CFs) at endpoint and damage to ecosystems levels, for waterborne nitrogen emissions, reflecting their hypoxia-related marine eutrophication impacts, modelled for 5772 river basins of the world....

  11. Using Water Quality Models in Management - A Multiple Model Assessment, Analysis of Confidence, and Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irby, Isaac David

    Human impacts on the Chesapeake Bay through increased nutrient run-off as a result of land-use change, urbanization, and industrialization, have resulted in a degradation of water quality over the last half-century. These direct impacts, compounded with human-induced climate changes such as warming, rising sea-level, and changes in precipitation, have elevated the conversation surrounding the future of water quality in the Bay. The overall goal of this dissertation project is to use a combination of models and data to better understand and quantify the impact of changes in nutrient loads and climate on water quality in the Chesapeake Bay. This research achieves that goal in three parts. First, a set of eight water quality models is used to establish a model mean and assess model skill. All models were found to exhibit similar skill in resolving dissolved oxygen concentrations as well as a number of dissolved oxygen-influencing variables (temperature, salinity, stratification, chlorophyll and nitrate) and the model mean exhibited the highest individual skill. The location of stratification within the water column was found to be a limiting factor in the models' ability to adequately simulate habitat compression resulting from low-oxygen conditions. Second, two of the previous models underwent the regulatory Chesapeake Bay pollution diet mandated by the Environmental Protection Agency. Both models exhibited a similar relative improvement in dissolved oxygen concentrations as a result of the reduction of nutrients stipulated in the pollution diet. A Confidence Index was developed to identify the locations of the Bay where the models are in agreement and disagreement regarding the impacts of the pollution diet. The models were least certain in the deep part of the upper main stem of the Bay and the uncertainty primarily stemmed from the post-processing methodology. Finally, by projecting the impacts of climate change in 2050 on the Bay, the potential success of the

  12. Models for environmental impact assessments of releases of radioactive substances from CERN facilities

    CERN Document Server

    Vojtyla, P

    2005-01-01

    The document describes generic models for environmental impact assessments of releases of radioactive substances from CERN facilities. Except for few models developed in the Safety Commission, the models are based on the 1997 Swiss directive HSK-R-41 and on the 2001 IAEA Safety Report No. 19. The writing style is descriptive, facilitating the practical implementation of the models at CERN. There are four scenarios assumed for airborne releases: (1) short-term releases for release limit calculations, (2) actual short-term releases, (3) short-term releases during incidents/accidents, and (4) chronic long-term releases during the normal operation of a facility. For water releases, two scenarios are considered: (1) a release into a river, and (2) a release into a water treatment plant. The document shall be understood as a reference for specific environmental studies involving radioactive releases and as a recommendation of the Safety Commission.

  13. Bayesian modeling to assess populated areas impacted by radiation from Fukushima

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hultquist, C.; Cervone, G.

    2017-12-01

    Citizen-led movements producing spatio-temporal big data are increasingly important sources of information about populations that are impacted by natural disasters. Citizen science can be used to fill gaps in disaster monitoring data, in addition to inferring human exposure and vulnerability to extreme environmental impacts. As a response to the 2011 release of radiation from Fukushima, Japan, the Safecast project began collecting open radiation data which grew to be a global dataset of over 70 million measurements to date. This dataset is spatially distributed primarily where humans are located and demonstrates abnormal patterns of population movements as a result of the disaster. Previous work has demonstrated that Safecast is highly correlated in comparison to government radiation observations. However, there is still a scientific need to understand the geostatistical variability of Safecast data and to assess how reliable the data are over space and time. The Bayesian hierarchical approach can be used to model the spatial distribution of datasets and flexibly integrate new flows of data without losing previous information. This enables an understanding of uncertainty in the spatio-temporal data to inform decision makers on areas of high levels of radiation where populations are located. Citizen science data can be scientifically evaluated and used as a critical source of information about populations that are impacted by a disaster.

  14. Assessment of Riparian Buffer Impacts Within the Little River Watershed in Georgia USA with the SWAT Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Computer based hydrologic and water quality models have proven to be useful tools for examining alternative management scenarios and their impact on the environment. This examination can be an important component of watershed-scale evaluations. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), is a water...

  15. Environmental impact assessment report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jung, K. J.; Paik, S. T.; Chung, U. S.; Jung, K. H.; Park, S. K.; Lee, D. G.; Kim, H. R.; Kim, J. K.; Yang, S. H.; Lee, B. J.; Kim, E. H.; Choi, K. S

    2000-10-01

    This report is the revised Environmental Impact Assessment Report which was made and submitted as one of the license documents for TRIGA Research Reactor D and D Project. The Environmental Impact Assessment Report includes introduction of decommissioning plan, status of reactors and environmental impact of surroundings. Also it was assessed and analyzed on radioactivity for environment, and the plan was established to minimize radioactive material release. Finally environmental monitoring plan was established to confirm whether contaminated or not from radioactivity during decommissioning period. According to the assessment results, the risk of excess exposure will be not on environment and public. The first Environmental Impact Assessment Report was submitted to the government for the license and reviewed by Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety. The first Report was revised including answers for the questions arising from review process.

  16. Social Impact Assessment in Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Sanne Vammen; Hansen, Anne Merrild; Lyhne, Ivar

    2015-01-01

    Social impact assessment (SIA) is applied worldwide to assess social impacts of plans and projects. In Europe, directives on environmental assessment (EA) require attention to social impacts, however, there is a need to investigate the implementation in practise. To this end, we study three Danish...... are not suggested or are postponed and the geographical distribution of impacts assessed is biased towards including negative local impacts. We discuss the scope and handling of social impacts, and possible implications. Based on this, we conclude with the view that EA might do the job of handling social impacts...... cases, which are characterised by debates and conflicts on social issues. Analysis of the EA statements shows inclusion of a broad range of social impacts. However, the EAs do not fully match the concerns of the public, and social impacts are not always analysed in depth, mitigation measures...

  17. Validity and sensitivity of a model for assessment of impacts of river floodplain reconstruction on protected and endangered species

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nooij, R.J.W. de; Lotterman, K.M.; Sande, P.H.J. van de; Pelsma, T.; Leuven, R.S.E.W.; Lenders, H.J.R.

    2006-01-01

    Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) must account for legally protected and endangered species. Uncertainties relating to the validity and sensitivity of EIA arise from predictions and valuation of effects on these species. This paper presents a validity and sensitivity analysis of a model (BIO-SAFE) for assessment of impacts of land use changes and physical reconstruction measures on legally protected and endangered river species. The assessment is based on links between species (higher plants, birds, mammals, reptiles and amphibians, butterflies and dragon- and damselflies) and ecotopes (landscape ecological units, e.g., river dune, soft wood alluvial forests), and on value assignment to protected and endangered species using different valuation criteria (i.e., EU Habitats and Birds directive, Conventions of Bern and Bonn and Red Lists). The validity of BIO-SAFE has been tested by comparing predicted effects of landscape changes on the diversity of protected and endangered species with observed changes in biodiversity in five reconstructed floodplains. The sensitivity of BIO-SAFE to value assignment has been analysed using data of a Strategic Environmental Assessment concerning the Spatial Planning Key Decision for reconstruction of the Dutch floodplains of the river Rhine, aimed at flood defence and ecological rehabilitation. The weights given to the valuation criteria for protected and endangered species were varied and the effects on ranking of alternatives were quantified. A statistically significant correlation (p < 0.01) between predicted and observed values for protected and endangered species was found. The sensitivity of the model to value assignment proved to be low. Comparison of five realistic valuation options showed that different rankings of scenarios predominantly occur when valuation criteria are left out of the assessment. Based on these results we conclude that linking species to ecotopes can be used for adequate impact assessments

  18. Challenges of electricity production scenarios modelling for life cycle assessment of environmental impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blanc, Isabelle; Beloin-Saint-Pierre, Didier

    2013-01-01

    This communication presents a first attempt at making a life cycle assessment of prospective electricity production scenarios which were designed in the EnerGEO project. We start by a basic review of system (in this case, scenario) modelling expectations in today's LCA study. We then review some of the challenges of implementation due to the lack of detailed description of present and future electricity production systems. The importance of a detailed description is then shown with an evaluation of uncertainty of life cycle impact assessment results for three scenarios of German electricity production in 2030. The significant uncertainties we found, prevent us from detecting a relevant trend or making any comparison between the three chosen scenarios. We finally come to the conclusion that the LCA methodology will become relevant for the environmental assessment of electricity production scenarios when many more detailed information are accounted to describe future technologies, structures and sources of energy. (orig.)

  19. Challenges of electricity production scenarios modelling for life cycle assessment of environmental impacts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blanc, Isabelle; Beloin-Saint-Pierre, Didier [MINES ParisTech, Sophia Antipolis (France). Observation, Impacts, Energy Center

    2013-07-01

    This communication presents a first attempt at making a life cycle assessment of prospective electricity production scenarios which were designed in the EnerGEO project. We start by a basic review of system (in this case, scenario) modelling expectations in today's LCA study. We then review some of the challenges of implementation due to the lack of detailed description of present and future electricity production systems. The importance of a detailed description is then shown with an evaluation of uncertainty of life cycle impact assessment results for three scenarios of German electricity production in 2030. The significant uncertainties we found, prevent us from detecting a relevant trend or making any comparison between the three chosen scenarios. We finally come to the conclusion that the LCA methodology will become relevant for the environmental assessment of electricity production scenarios when many more detailed information are accounted to describe future technologies, structures and sources of energy. (orig.)

  20. Risk assessment by dynamic representation of vulnerability, exploitation, and impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cam, Hasan

    2015-05-01

    Assessing and quantifying cyber risk accurately in real-time is essential to providing security and mission assurance in any system and network. This paper presents a modeling and dynamic analysis approach to assessing cyber risk of a network in real-time by representing dynamically its vulnerabilities, exploitations, and impact using integrated Bayesian network and Markov models. Given the set of vulnerabilities detected by a vulnerability scanner in a network, this paper addresses how its risk can be assessed by estimating in real-time the exploit likelihood and impact of vulnerability exploitation on the network, based on real-time observations and measurements over the network. The dynamic representation of the network in terms of its vulnerabilities, sensor measurements, and observations is constructed dynamically using the integrated Bayesian network and Markov models. The transition rates of outgoing and incoming links of states in hidden Markov models are used in determining exploit likelihood and impact of attacks, whereas emission rates help quantify the attack states of vulnerabilities. Simulation results show the quantification and evolving risk scores over time for individual and aggregated vulnerabilities of a network.

  1. Reporting, Visualization, and Modeling of Immunogenicity Data to Assess Its Impact on Pharmacokinetics, Efficacy, and Safety of Monoclonal Antibodies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Passey, Chaitali; Suryawanshi, Satyendra; Sanghavi, Kinjal; Gupta, Manish

    2018-02-26

    The rapidly increasing number of therapeutic biologics in development has led to a growing recognition of the need for improvements in immunogenicity assessment. Published data are often inadequate to assess the impact of an antidrug antibody (ADA) on pharmacokinetics, safety, and efficacy, and enable a fully informed decision about patient management in the event of ADA development. The recent introduction of detailed regulatory guidance for industry should help address many past inadequacies in immunogenicity assessment. Nonetheless, careful analysis of gathered data and clear reporting of results are critical to a full understanding of the clinical relevance of ADAs, but have not been widely considered in published literature to date. Here, we review visualization and modeling of immunogenicity data. We present several relatively simple visualization techniques that can provide preliminary information about the kinetics and magnitude of ADA responses, and their impact on pharmacokinetics and clinical endpoints for a given therapeutic protein. We focus on individual sample- and patient-level data, which can be used to build a picture of any trends, thereby guiding analysis of the overall study population. We also discuss methods for modeling ADA data to investigate the impact of immunogenicity on pharmacokinetics, efficacy, and safety.

  2. Impact assessment of agricultural innovations: a review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Carlos Barrientos-Fuentes

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available The current conditions of the markets and favorable policies, as well as the progress of science and communications, are promoting further development and diffusion of agricultural innovations, which have effects on different areas of agrarian development. The objective of this paper is to present a review of characteristics of agricultural innovations and their diffusion, adoption and impacts, as well as an update of the types and methods of assessment. Agricultural innovations are not only new or improved products, they are also models and systems, and should have a positive social effect. Innovation areas in developing countries are more concentrated on production and distribution, whereas developed countries concentrate on offering inputs. Investments from the private sector in agricultural innovations are growing faster than those from the public sector. The adoption of innovations is medium-term, and usually less than 100%. The impact of innovations includes intermediate areas, such as institutional, political, scientific and productive areas. The economic efficiency of the investment in innovations is the most often mentioned purpose of impact assessments in the literature. The efficiency analysis (ex-post and its surplus approach is still the most used method for assessing impact of agricultural innovations. Nevertheless, other goals are becoming more important, such as food security, environmental protection and poverty reduction. Livelihood, comprehensive and multidimensional approaches go beyond the economic approach. Moreover, specific models with advantages of prognosis and improved precision are replacing or complementing the classic socio-economic approach

  3. Bio-economic modelling to assess the impact of water pricing policies at the farm level in the Oum Zessar watershed, southern Tunisia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jeder, H.; Sghaier, M.; Louhchi, P.; Reidsma, P.

    2014-01-01

    For integrated assessment at farm level, the Farm System SIMulator model (FSSIM) was used. FSSIM is a bio-economic model developed for the European context, and was adapted and tested for Tunisian conditions to assess, ex-ante, impacts of water pricing policies at the farm level to the year 2015.

  4. Environmental impacts assessment: Instruments for environmental policy making and resource management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cavelli, C.M.; Sartori, S.

    1993-06-01

    This review of evaluation criteria for environmental impacts assessments in Italy covers the following aspects: the efficacy of current Italian normatives governing assessment methods, the current approach of regional public administrations, the necessity for the creation of a national regulating board, environmental impacts assessment for complex environmental systems, the application of impacts assessment recommendations to resource development modelling in the planning of integrated environmental-economic systems, the involvement of the general public in decision making, techniques to determine the monetary worth of environmental resources, the use of multi-criteria analysis techniques

  5. Errors and uncertainties introduced by a regional climate model in climate impact assessments: example of crop yield simulations in West Africa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramarohetra, Johanna; Pohl, Benjamin; Sultan, Benjamin

    2015-01-01

    The challenge of estimating the potential impacts of climate change has led to an increasing use of dynamical downscaling to produce fine spatial-scale climate projections for impact assessments. In this work, we analyze if and to what extent the bias in the simulated crop yield can be reduced by using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model to downscale ERA-Interim (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis) rainfall and radiation data. Then, we evaluate the uncertainties resulting from both the choice of the physical parameterizations of the WRF model and its internal variability. Impact assessments were performed at two sites in Sub-Saharan Africa and by using two crop models to simulate Niger pearl millet and Benin maize yields. We find that the use of the WRF model to downscale ERA-Interim climate data generally reduces the bias in the simulated crop yield, yet this reduction in bias strongly depends on the choices in the model setup. Among the physical parameterizations considered, we show that the choice of the land surface model (LSM) is of primary importance. When there is no coupling with a LSM, or when the LSM is too simplistic, the simulated precipitation and then the simulated yield are null, or respectively very low; therefore, coupling with a LSM is necessary. The convective scheme is the second most influential scheme for yield simulation, followed by the shortwave radiation scheme. The uncertainties related to the internal variability of the WRF model are also significant and reach up to 30% of the simulated yields. These results suggest that regional models need to be used more carefully in order to improve the reliability of impact assessments. (letter)

  6. Assessing and optimizing the economic and environmental impacts of cogeneration/district energy systems using an energy equilibrium model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Y.J.; Rosen, M.A.

    1999-01-01

    Energy equilibrium models can be valuable aids in energy planning and decision-making. In such models, supply is represented by a cost-minimizing linear submodel and demand by a smooth vector-valued function of prices. In this paper, we use the energy equilibrium model to study conventional systems and cogeneration-based district energy (DE) systems for providing heating, cooling and electrical services, not only to assess the potential economic and environmental benefits of cogeneration-based DE systems, but also to develop optimal configurations while accounting for such factors as economics and environmental impact. The energy equilibrium model is formulated and solved with software called WATEMS, which uses sequential non-linear programming to calculate the intertemporal equilibrium of energy supplies and demands. The methods of analysis and evaluation for the economic and environmental impacts are carefully explored. An illustrative energy equilibrium model of conventional and cogeneration-based DE systems is developed within WATEMS to compare quantitatively the economic and environmental impacts of those systems for various scenarios. (Copyright (c) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V., Amsterdam. All rights reserved.)

  7. Challenges in implementing a Planetary Boundaries based Life-Cycle Impact Assessment methodology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ryberg, Morten; Owsianiak, Mikolaj; Richardson, Katherine

    2016-01-01

    of resolving the challenges and developing such methodology is discussed. The challenges are related to technical issues, i.e., modelling and including the Earth System processes and their control variables as impact categories in Life-Cycle Impact Assessment and to theoretical considerations with respect...... to the interpretation and use of Life-Cycle Assessment results in accordance with the Planetary Boundary framework. The identified challenges require additional research before a Planetary Boundaries based Life-Cycle Impact Assessment method can be developed. Research on modelling the impacts on Earth System processes......Impacts on the environment from human activities are now threatening to exceed thresholds for central Earth System processes, potentially moving the Earth System out of the Holocene state. To avoid such consequences, the concept of Planetary Boundaries was defined in 2009, and updated in 2015...

  8. Assessing wetland loss impacts on watershed hydrology using an improved modeling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Despite the importance of wetland impacts on water cycling, the Chesapeake Bay Watershed (CBW) has experienced significant wetland losses. The resultant environmental degradation has not been fully characterized. Our aim is to assess wetland loss impacts on watershed hydrology for an agricultural wa...

  9. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

  10. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-01-01

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

  11. Global and local emission impact assessment of distributed cogeneration systems with partial-load models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mancarella, Pierluigi; Chicco, Gianfranco

    2009-01-01

    Small-scale distributed cogeneration technologies represent a key resource to increase generation efficiency and reduce greenhouse gas emissions with respect to conventional separate production means. However, the diffusion of distributed cogeneration within urban areas, where air quality standards are quite stringent, brings about environmental concerns on a local level. In addition, partial-load emission worsening is often overlooked, which could lead to biased evaluations of the energy system environmental performance. In this paper, a comprehensive emission assessment framework suitable for addressing distributed cogeneration systems is formulated. Local and global emission impact models are presented to identify upper and lower boundary values of the environmental pressure from pollutants that would be emitted from reference technologies, to be compared to the actual emissions from distributed cogeneration. This provides synthetic information on the relative environmental impact from small-scale CHP sources, useful for general indicative and non-site-specific studies. The emission models are formulated according to an electrical output-based emission factor approach, through which off-design operation and relevant performance are easily accounted for. In particular, in order to address the issues that could arise under off-design operation, an equivalent load model is incorporated within the proposed framework, by exploiting the duration curve of the cogenerator loading and the emissions associated to each loading level. In this way, it is possible to quantify the contribution to the emissions from cogeneration systems that might operate at partial loads for a significant portion of their operation time, as for instance in load-tracking applications. Suitability of the proposed methodology is discussed with respect to hazardous air pollutants such as NO x and CO, as well as to greenhouse gases such as CO 2 . Two case study applications based on the emission

  12. Assessing anthropogenic impact on boreal lakes with historical fish species distribution data and hydrogeochemical modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valinia, Salar; Englund, Göran; Moldan, Filip; Futter, Martyn N; Köhler, Stephan J; Bishop, Kevin; Fölster, Jens

    2014-09-01

    Quantifying the effects of human activity on the natural environment is dependent on credible estimates of reference conditions to define the state of the environment before the onset of adverse human impacts. In Europe, emission controls that aimed at restoring ecological status were based on hindcasts from process-based models or paleolimnological reconstructions. For instance, 1860 is used in Europe as the target for restoration from acidification concerning biological and chemical parameters. A more practical problem is that the historical states of ecosystems and their function cannot be observed directly. Therefore, we (i) compare estimates of acidification based on long-term observations of roach (Rutilus rutilus) populations with hindcast pH from the hydrogeochemical model MAGIC; (ii) discuss policy implications and possible scope for use of long-term archival data for assessing human impacts on the natural environment and (iii) present a novel conceptual model for interpreting the importance of physico-chemical and ecological deviations from reference conditions. Of the 85 lakes studied, 78 were coherently classified by both methods. In 1980, 28 lakes were classified as acidified with the MAGIC model, however, roach was present in 14 of these. In 2010, MAGIC predicted chemical recovery in 50% of the lakes, however roach only recolonized in five lakes after 1990, showing a lag between chemical and biological recovery. Our study is the first study of its kind to use long-term archival biological data in concert with hydrogeochemical modeling for regional assessments of anthropogenic acidification. Based on our results, we show how the conceptual model can be used to understand and prioritize management of physico-chemical and ecological effects of anthropogenic stressors on surface water quality. © 2014 The Authors Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  13. Predictions of models for environmental radiological assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peres, Sueli da Silva; Lauria, Dejanira da Costa; Mahler, Claudio Fernando

    2011-01-01

    In the field of environmental impact assessment, models are used for estimating source term, environmental dispersion and transfer of radionuclides, exposure pathway, radiation dose and the risk for human beings Although it is recognized that the specific information of local data are important to improve the quality of the dose assessment results, in fact obtaining it can be very difficult and expensive. Sources of uncertainties are numerous, among which we can cite: the subjectivity of modelers, exposure scenarios and pathways, used codes and general parameters. The various models available utilize different mathematical approaches with different complexities that can result in different predictions. Thus, for the same inputs different models can produce very different outputs. This paper presents briefly the main advances in the field of environmental radiological assessment that aim to improve the reliability of the models used in the assessment of environmental radiological impact. The intercomparison exercise of model supplied incompatible results for 137 Cs and 60 Co, enhancing the need for developing reference methodologies for environmental radiological assessment that allow to confront dose estimations in a common comparison base. The results of the intercomparison exercise are present briefly. (author)

  14. IMPACT 2002+, ReCiPe 2008 and ILCD’s recommended practice for characterization modelling in life cycle impact assessment: a case study-based comparison

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Owsianiak, Mikolaj; Laurent, Alexis; Bjørn, Anders

    2014-01-01

    Purpose The European Commission has launched a recommended set of characterization models and factors for application in life cycle impact assessment (LCIA). However, it is not known how this recommended practice, referred to as the ILCD 2009, performs relative to some of the most frequently used...... and ecosystems, all studied methodologies consistently identify the same window option as having the lowest and the highest environmental impact. This is mainly because few processes, associated with production of heat, dominate the total impacts, and there is a large difference in demand for heat between...... categories. The differences are somewhat smaller (within 1 order of magnitude) for the impact categories respiratory inorganics and photochemical ozone formation, and are within a factor of 3 for the remaining impact categories. The differences in impact scores in our case study are brought about...

  15. Sense-making and Impact Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lyhne, Ivar

    The poster integrates knowledge about how we make sense of situations into SEA methodology to strengthen the staging of impact assessments and the process of scoping impacts.......The poster integrates knowledge about how we make sense of situations into SEA methodology to strengthen the staging of impact assessments and the process of scoping impacts....

  16. Assessing the impact of the Lebanese National Polio Immunization Campaign using a population-based computational model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alawieh, Ali; Sabra, Zahraa; Langley, E Farris; Bizri, Abdul Rahman; Hamadeh, Randa; Zaraket, Fadi A

    2017-11-25

    After the re-introduction of poliovirus to Syria in 2013, Lebanon was considered at high transmission risk due to its proximity to Syria and the high number of Syrian refugees. However, after a large-scale national immunization initiative, Lebanon was able to prevent a potential outbreak of polio among nationals and refugees. In this work, we used a computational individual-simulation model to assess the risk of poliovirus threat to Lebanon prior and after the immunization campaign and to quantitatively assess the healthcare impact of the campaign and the required standards that need to be maintained nationally to prevent a future outbreak. Acute poliomyelitis surveillance in Lebanon was along with the design and coverage rate of the recent national polio immunization campaign were reviewed from the records of the Lebanese Ministry of Public Health. Lebanese population demographics including Syrian and Palestinian refugees were reviewed to design individual-based models that predicts the consequences of polio spread to Lebanon and evaluate the outcome of immunization campaigns. The model takes into account geographic, demographic and health-related features. Our simulations confirmed the high risk of polio outbreaks in Lebanon within 10 days of case introduction prior to the immunization campaign, and showed that the current immunization campaign significantly reduced the speed of the infection in the event poliomyelitis cases enter the country. A minimum of 90% national immunization coverage was found to be required to prevent exponential propagation of potential transmission. Both surveillance and immunization efforts should be maintained at high standards in Lebanon and other countries in the area to detect and limit any potential outbreak. The use of computational population simulation models can provide a quantitative approach to assess the impact of immunization campaigns and the burden of infectious diseases even in the context of population migration.

  17. Assessing the impact of the Lebanese National Polio Immunization Campaign using a population-based computational model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Alawieh

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background After the re-introduction of poliovirus to Syria in 2013, Lebanon was considered at high transmission risk due to its proximity to Syria and the high number of Syrian refugees. However, after a large-scale national immunization initiative, Lebanon was able to prevent a potential outbreak of polio among nationals and refugees. In this work, we used a computational individual-simulation model to assess the risk of poliovirus threat to Lebanon prior and after the immunization campaign and to quantitatively assess the healthcare impact of the campaign and the required standards that need to be maintained nationally to prevent a future outbreak. Methods Acute poliomyelitis surveillance in Lebanon was along with the design and coverage rate of the recent national polio immunization campaign were reviewed from the records of the Lebanese Ministry of Public Health. Lebanese population demographics including Syrian and Palestinian refugees were reviewed to design individual-based models that predicts the consequences of polio spread to Lebanon and evaluate the outcome of immunization campaigns. The model takes into account geographic, demographic and health-related features. Results Our simulations confirmed the high risk of polio outbreaks in Lebanon within 10 days of case introduction prior to the immunization campaign, and showed that the current immunization campaign significantly reduced the speed of the infection in the event poliomyelitis cases enter the country. A minimum of 90% national immunization coverage was found to be required to prevent exponential propagation of potential transmission. Conclusions Both surveillance and immunization efforts should be maintained at high standards in Lebanon and other countries in the area to detect and limit any potential outbreak. The use of computational population simulation models can provide a quantitative approach to assess the impact of immunization campaigns and the burden of

  18. Fish habitat simulation models and integrated assessment tools

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harby, A.; Alfredsen, K.

    1999-01-01

    Because of human development water use increases in importance, and this worldwide trend is leading to an increasing number of user conflicts with a strong need for assessment tools to measure the impacts both on the ecosystem and the different users and user groups. The quantitative tools must allow a comparison of alternatives, different user groups, etc., and the tools must be integrated while impact assessments includes different disciplines. Fish species, especially young ones, are indicators of the environmental state of a riverine system and monitoring them is a way to follow environmental changes. The direct and indirect impacts on the ecosystem itself are measured, and impacts on user groups is not included. Fish habitat simulation models are concentrated on, and methods and examples are considered from Norway. Some ideas on integrated modelling tools for impact assessment studies are included. One dimensional hydraulic models are rapidly calibrated and do not require any expert knowledge in hydraulics. Two and three dimensional models require a bit more skilled users, especially if the topography is very heterogeneous. The advantages of using two and three dimensional models include: they do not need any calibration, just validation; they are predictive; and they can be more cost effective than traditional habitat hydraulic models when combined with modern data acquisition systems and tailored in a multi-disciplinary study. Suitable modelling model choice should be based on available data and possible data acquisition, available manpower, computer, and software resources, and needed output and accuracy in the output. 58 refs

  19. Cyber threat impact assessment and analysis for space vehicle architectures

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGraw, Robert M.; Fowler, Mark J.; Umphress, David; MacDonald, Richard A.

    2014-06-01

    This paper covers research into an assessment of potential impacts and techniques to detect and mitigate cyber attacks that affect the networks and control systems of space vehicles. Such systems, if subverted by malicious insiders, external hackers and/or supply chain threats, can be controlled in a manner to cause physical damage to the space platforms. Similar attacks on Earth-borne cyber physical systems include the Shamoon, Duqu, Flame and Stuxnet exploits. These have been used to bring down foreign power generation and refining systems. This paper discusses the potential impacts of similar cyber attacks on space-based platforms through the use of simulation models, including custom models developed in Python using SimPy and commercial SATCOM analysis tools, as an example STK/SOLIS. The paper discusses the architecture and fidelity of the simulation model that has been developed for performing the impact assessment. The paper walks through the application of an attack vector at the subsystem level and how it affects the control and orientation of the space vehicle. SimPy is used to model and extract raw impact data at the bus level, while STK/SOLIS is used to extract raw impact data at the subsystem level and to visually display the effect on the physical plant of the space vehicle.

  20. Assessing the Impacts of Flooding Caused by Extreme Rainfall Events Through a Combined Geospatial and Numerical Modeling Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santillan, J. R.; Amora, A. M.; Makinano-Santillan, M.; Marqueso, J. T.; Cutamora, L. C.; Serviano, J. L.; Makinano, R. M.

    2016-06-01

    In this paper, we present a combined geospatial and two dimensional (2D) flood modeling approach to assess the impacts of flooding due to extreme rainfall events. We developed and implemented this approach to the Tago River Basin in the province of Surigao del Sur in Mindanao, Philippines, an area which suffered great damage due to flooding caused by Tropical Storms Lingling and Jangmi in the year 2014. The geospatial component of the approach involves extraction of several layers of information such as detailed topography/terrain, man-made features (buildings, roads, bridges) from 1-m spatial resolution LiDAR Digital Surface and Terrain Models (DTM/DSMs), and recent land-cover from Landsat 7 ETM+ and Landsat 8 OLI images. We then used these layers as inputs in developing a Hydrologic Engineering Center Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC HMS)-based hydrologic model, and a hydraulic model based on the 2D module of the latest version of HEC River Analysis System (RAS) to dynamically simulate and map the depth and extent of flooding due to extreme rainfall events. The extreme rainfall events used in the simulation represent 6 hypothetical rainfall events with return periods of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years. For each event, maximum flood depth maps were generated from the simulations, and these maps were further transformed into hazard maps by categorizing the flood depth into low, medium and high hazard levels. Using both the flood hazard maps and the layers of information extracted from remotely-sensed datasets in spatial overlay analysis, we were then able to estimate and assess the impacts of these flooding events to buildings, roads, bridges and landcover. Results of the assessments revealed increase in number of buildings, roads and bridges; and increase in areas of land-cover exposed to various flood hazards as rainfall events become more extreme. The wealth of information generated from the flood impact assessment using the approach can be very useful to the

  1. Methodologies for assessing socio-economic impacts of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smit, B.

    1993-01-01

    Much of the studies on climate change impacts have focused on physical and biological impacts, yet a knowledge of the social and economic impacts of climate change is likely to have a greater impact on the public and on policymakers. A conventional assessment of the impacts of climate change begins with scenarios of future climate, commonly derived from global climate models translated to a regional scale. Estimates of biophysical conditions provided by such scenarios provide a basis for analyses of human impacts, usually considered sector by sector. The scenario approach, although having considerable merit and appeal, has some noteworthy limitations. It encourages consideration of only a small set of scenarios, requires bold assumptions to be made about adjustments in human systems, provides little direct analysis of sensitivities of human social and economic systems to climate perturbations, and usually invokes the assumption that all factors other than climate are stable and have no synergistic effects on human systems. Conventional studies concentrate on average climate, yet climate is inherently variable. A common response to this situation is to propose further development of climate models, but this is not a sufficient or necessary condition for good and useful assessments of impacts on human activities. Different approaches to socioeconomic impact analysis are needed, and approaches should be considered that include identification of sensitivities in a social or ecological system, identification of critical threshold levels or critical speeds of change in variables, and exploration of alternative methodologies such as process studies, spatial and temporal analogues, and socio-economic systems modelling. 5 refs., 3 figs

  2. Assessing the impact of releases of radionuclides into sewage systems in urban environment - simulation, modelling and experimental studies - LUCIA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sundelll-Bergman, S. (Vattenfall Power Consultant, Stockholm (Sweden)); Avila, R.; Cruz, I. de la (Facilia AB, (Sweden)); Xu, S. (Swedish Radiation Safety Authority, (Sweden)); Puhakainen, M.; Heikkinene, T.; Rahola, T. (STUK (Finland)); Hosseini, A. (Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority (Norway)); Nielsen, Sven (Risoe National Laboratory for Sustainable Energy, DTU (Denmark)); Sigurgeirsson, M. (Geislavarnir rikisins (Iceland))

    2009-06-15

    This report summarises the findings of a project on assessing the impact of releases of radionuclides into sewage systems and was established to provide more knowledge and suitable tools for emergency preparedness purposes in urban areas. It was known that the design of sewage plants, and their wastewater treatments, is rather similar between the Nordic countries. One sewage plant in each of the five Nordic countries was selected for assessing the impact of radionuclide releases from hospitals into their sewerage systems. Measurements and model predictions of dose assessments to different potentially exposed members of the public were carried out. The results from the dose assessments indicate that in case of routine releases annual doses to the three hypothetical groups of individuals are most likely insignificant. Estimated doses for workers are below 10 muSv/y, for the two studied radionuclides 99mTc and 131I. If uncertainties in the predictions of activity concentrations in sludge are considered, then the probability of obtaining doses above 10 muSv/y may not be insignificant. The models and approaches developed can also be applied in case of accidental releases. A laboratory inter-comparison exercise was also organised to compare analytical results across the laboratories participating in the project, using both 131I, dominating man-made radionuclide in sewage systems due to the medical use. A process oriented model of the biological treatment is also proposed in the report that does not require as much input data as for the LUCIA model. This model is a combination of a simplified well known Activated Sludge Model No.1 (Henze, 1987) and the Kd concept used in the LUCIA model. The simplified model is able to estimate the concentrations and the retention time of the sludge in different parts of the treatment plant, which in turn, can be used as a tool for the dose assessment purpose.filled by the activity. (au)

  3. Assessing the impact of releases of radionuclides into sewage systems in urban environment - simulation, modelling and experimental studies - LUCIA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sundelll-Bergman, S.; Avila, R.; Cruz, I. de la; Xu, S.; Puhakainen, M.; Heikkinene, T.; Rahola, T.; Hosseini, A.; Nielsen, Sven; Sigurgeirsson, M.

    2009-06-01

    This report summarises the findings of a project on assessing the impact of releases of radionuclides into sewage systems and was established to provide more knowledge and suitable tools for emergency preparedness purposes in urban areas. It was known that the design of sewage plants, and their wastewater treatments, is rather similar between the Nordic countries. One sewage plant in each of the five Nordic countries was selected for assessing the impact of radionuclide releases from hospitals into their sewerage systems. Measurements and model predictions of dose assessments to different potentially exposed members of the public were carried out. The results from the dose assessments indicate that in case of routine releases annual doses to the three hypothetical groups of individuals are most likely insignificant. Estimated doses for workers are below 10 μSv/y, for the two studied radionuclides 99mTc and 131I. If uncertainties in the predictions of activity concentrations in sludge are considered, then the probability of obtaining doses above 10 μSv/y may not be insignificant. The models and approaches developed can also be applied in case of accidental releases. A laboratory inter-comparison exercise was also organised to compare analytical results across the laboratories participating in the project, using both 131I, dominating man-made radionuclide in sewage systems due to the medical use. A process oriented model of the biological treatment is also proposed in the report that does not require as much input data as for the LUCIA model. This model is a combination of a simplified well known Activated Sludge Model No.1 (Henze, 1987) and the Kd concept used in the LUCIA model. The simplified model is able to estimate the concentrations and the retention time of the sludge in different parts of the treatment plant, which in turn, can be used as a tool for the dose assessment purpose.filled by the activity. (au)

  4. Assessing the impacts of water abstractions on river ecosystem services: an eco-hydraulic modelling approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carolli, Mauro, E-mail: mauro.carolli@unitn.it; Geneletti, Davide, E-mail: davide.geneletti@unitn.it; Zolezzi, Guido, E-mail: guido.zolezzi@unitn.it

    2017-03-15

    The provision of important river ecosystem services (ES) is dependent on the flow regime. This requires methods to assess the impacts on ES caused by interventions on rivers that affect flow regime, such as water abstractions. This study proposes a method to i) quantify the provision of a set of river ES, ii) simulate the effects of water abstraction alternatives that differ in location and abstracted flow, and iii) assess the impact of water abstraction alternatives on the selected ES. The method is based on river modelling science, and integrates spatially distributed hydrological, hydraulic and habitat models at different spatial and temporal scales. The method is applied to the hydropeaked upper Noce River (Northern Italy), which is regulated by hydropower operations. We selected locally relevant river ES: habitat suitability for the adult marble trout, white-water rafting suitability, hydroelectricity production from run-of-river (RoR) plants. Our results quantify the seasonality of river ES response variables and their intrinsic non-linearity, which explains why the same abstracted flow can produce different effects on trout habitat and rafting suitability depending on the morphology of the abstracted reach. An economic valuation of the examined river ES suggests that incomes from RoR hydropower plants are of comparable magnitude to touristic revenue losses related to the decrease in rafting suitability.

  5. Assessing the impacts of water abstractions on river ecosystem services: an eco-hydraulic modelling approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carolli, Mauro; Geneletti, Davide; Zolezzi, Guido

    2017-01-01

    The provision of important river ecosystem services (ES) is dependent on the flow regime. This requires methods to assess the impacts on ES caused by interventions on rivers that affect flow regime, such as water abstractions. This study proposes a method to i) quantify the provision of a set of river ES, ii) simulate the effects of water abstraction alternatives that differ in location and abstracted flow, and iii) assess the impact of water abstraction alternatives on the selected ES. The method is based on river modelling science, and integrates spatially distributed hydrological, hydraulic and habitat models at different spatial and temporal scales. The method is applied to the hydropeaked upper Noce River (Northern Italy), which is regulated by hydropower operations. We selected locally relevant river ES: habitat suitability for the adult marble trout, white-water rafting suitability, hydroelectricity production from run-of-river (RoR) plants. Our results quantify the seasonality of river ES response variables and their intrinsic non-linearity, which explains why the same abstracted flow can produce different effects on trout habitat and rafting suitability depending on the morphology of the abstracted reach. An economic valuation of the examined river ES suggests that incomes from RoR hydropower plants are of comparable magnitude to touristic revenue losses related to the decrease in rafting suitability.

  6. Assessing the Impact of Equipment Aging on System Performance Using Simulation Modeling Methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gupta, N. K.

    2005-01-01

    The radiological Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometer (ICP-MS) is used to analyze the radioactive samples collected from different radioactive material processing operations at Savannah River Site (SRS). The expeditious processing of these samples is important for safe and reliable operations at SRS. As the radiological (RAD) ICP-MS machine ages, the experience shows that replacement parts and repairs are difficult to obtain on time for reliable operations after 5 years of service. A discrete event model using commercial software EXTEND was prepared to assess the impact on sample turn around times as the ICP-MS gets older. The model was prepared using the sample statistics from the previous 4 years. Machine utilization rates were calculated for the new machine, 5 year old machine, 10 year old machine, and a 12 year old machine. Computer simulations were run for these periods and the sample delay times calculated. The model was validated against the sample statistics collected from the previous 4 quarters. 90% confidence intervals were calculated for the 10th, 25th, 50th, and 90th quantiles of the samples. The simulation results show that if 50% of the samples are needed on time for efficient site operations, a 10 year old machine could take nearly 50 days longer to process these samples than a 5-year old machine. This simulation effort quantifies the impact on sample turn around time as the ICP-MS gets older

  7. Institutionalizing policy-level health impact assessment in Europe: is coupling health impact assessment with strategic environmental assessment the next step forward?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, John; Parry, Jayne; Scully, Edward

    2005-06-01

    European Union (EU) Member States are interested in using health impact assessment (HIA) as a means of safeguarding their obligations to protect human health under the 1997 Treaty of Amsterdam. However, several have encountered difficulties institutionalizing HIA with the policy-making process. As a consequence, the World Health Organization (WHO) Regional Office for Europe has suggested coupling HIA with strategic environmental assessment (SEA). Traditionally, the incorporation of HIA into other forms of impact assessment has been resisted, for fear of losing its focus on health issues to environmental concerns, and compromising its social model of health with the introduction of biophysical indicators. But can these fears be substantiated? In this paper, we investigate the grounds for such concerns by reviewing the relevant policy documents and departmental guidelines of four non-European countries that have considered the use of integrated assessment. We found that the case for associating HIA with SEA in Europe is strong, and offers potential solutions to problems of screening, theoretical framework, causal pathways and ready entry to the policy process. Coupling HIA with SEA may thus be the next step forward in a longer journey towards institutionalizing HIA as an independent policy-linked device.

  8. Development of an integrated generic model for multi-scale assessment of the impacts of agro-ecosystems on major ecosystem services in West Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belem, Mahamadou; Saqalli, Mehdi

    2017-11-01

    This paper presents an integrated model assessing the impacts of climate change, agro-ecosystem and demographic transition patterns on major ecosystem services in West-Africa along a partial overview of economic aspects (poverty reduction, food self-sufficiency and income generation). The model is based on an agent-based model associated with a soil model and multi-scale spatial model. The resulting Model for West-Africa Agro-Ecosystem Integrated Assessment (MOWASIA) is ecologically generic, meaning it is designed for all sudano-sahelian environments but may then be used as an experimentation facility for testing different scenarios combining ecological and socioeconomic dimensions. A case study in Burkina Faso is examined to assess the environmental and economic performances of semi-continuous and continuous farming systems. Results show that the semi-continuous system using organic fertilizer and fallowing practices contribute better to environment preservation and food security than the more economically performant continuous system. In addition, this study showed that farmers heterogeneity could play an important role in agricultural policies planning and assessment. In addition, the results showed that MOWASIA is an effective tool for designing, analysing the impacts of agro-ecosystems. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  9. Life Cycle Impact Assessment in the Arctic: Challenges and Research Needs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johan Berg Pettersen

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Life cycle assessment (LCA is increasingly used for environmental assessment of products and production processes to support environmental decision-making both worldwide and in the Arctic. However, there are several weaknesses in the impact assessment methodology in LCA, e.g., related to uncertainties of impact assessment results, absence of spatial differentiation in characterization modeling, and gaps in the coverage of impact pathways of different “archetypal” environments. Searching for a new resource base and areas for operation, marine and marine-based industries are continuously moving north, which underlines the need for better life cycle impact assessment in the Arctic, particularly to aid in industrial environmental management systems and stakeholder communications. This paper aims to investigate gaps and challenges in the application of the currently available impact assessment methods in the Arctic context. A simplified Arctic mining LCA case study was carried out to demonstrate the relevance of Arctic emissions at the midpoint and endpoint levels, as well as possible influences of the Arctic context on the impact assessment results. Results of this study showed that significant research gaps remain in Arctic-dependent life cycle impact assessment, particularly on: (i the possible influences of the Arctic-specific features on characterization factors for impact assessment (such as seasonality, cold climate, precipitation, and marine dependence; and (ii the coverage of impact pathways, especially on the under-addressed marine impacts and marine/near-shore dispersion processes. Addressing those identified research gaps and demand for future Arctic life cycle impact assessment could increase the credibility of LCA as an environmental decision-making support tool for Arctic industries and better support sustainable Arctic development.

  10. ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT AND MONITORING ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    protect the environment, it is imperative to conduct environmental impact assessment ... Ethiopia enacted the Environmental Impact Assessment Proclamation in 2002 ... flora, fauna, soil, air, water, climate, natural or cultural heritage, other.

  11. Accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty in impact assessments: The example of the BRACE study

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, B. C.

    2015-12-01

    Assessing climate change impacts often requires the use of multiple scenarios, types of models, and data sources, leading to a large number of potential sources of uncertainty. For example, a single study might require a choice of a forcing scenario, climate model, bias correction and/or downscaling method, societal development scenario, model (typically several) for quantifying elements of societal development such as economic and population growth, biophysical model (such as for crop yields or hydrology), and societal impact model (e.g. economic or health model). Some sources of uncertainty are reduced or eliminated by the framing of the question. For example, it may be useful to ask what an impact outcome would be conditional on a given societal development pathway, forcing scenario, or policy. However many sources of uncertainty remain, and it is rare for all or even most of these sources to be accounted for. I use the example of a recent integrated project on the Benefits of Reduced Anthropogenic Climate changE (BRACE) to explore useful approaches to uncertainty across multiple components of an impact assessment. BRACE comprises 23 papers that assess the differences in impacts between two alternative climate futures: those associated with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. It quantifies difference in impacts in terms of extreme events, health, agriculture, tropical cyclones, and sea level rise. Methodologically, it includes climate modeling, statistical analysis, integrated assessment modeling, and sector-specific impact modeling. It employs alternative scenarios of both radiative forcing and societal development, but generally uses a single climate model (CESM), partially accounting for climate uncertainty by drawing heavily on large initial condition ensembles. Strengths and weaknesses of the approach to uncertainty in BRACE are assessed. Options under consideration for improving the approach include the use of perturbed physics

  12. Environmental impact assessments of wind energy projects: An Alberta example

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, W.K.

    1993-01-01

    A description is presented of the environmental impact assessment for an Alberta windfarm, summarizing the rationale, process and results of the assessment, costs involved, and recommendations made. The Pe-kun-nee windfarm was designed as a 44 turbine, 9.9 kW windfarm. The assessment included consideration of the complete range of environmental impacts of the windfarm, including reviews of impacts associated with similar developments elsewhere. From an environmental perspective, the proposed site and transmission line route were exceedingly suitable for development. No major potential impacts were identified. Most impacts that could occur, including terrain and vegetation disturbance, were associated with the construction phase of the project. A series of mitigation measures were developed to minimize each identified impact. Monitoring during the operations phase of the development was recommended to: ensure that the revegetation of disturbed areas was adequate; verify the sound level model; and document the incidence of bird strikes. Potential aesthetic impacts were addressed through a proposed interpretive project designed to educate visitors, enhance the profile of the wind-energy industry, and provide local employment. The assessment was completed within 8 months of initiation at a cost less than $200,000

  13. Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on the Water Balances and Flooding Conditions of Peninsular Malaysia watersheds by a Coupled Numerical Climate Model - Watershed Hydrology Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ercan, A.; Kavvas, M. L.; Ishida, K.; Chen, Z. Q.; Amin, M. Z. M.; Shaaban, A. J.

    2017-12-01

    Impacts of climate change on the hydrologic processes under future climate change conditions were assessed over various watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia by means of a coupled regional climate and physically-based hydrology model that utilized an ensemble of future climate change projections. An ensemble of 15 different future climate realizations from coarse resolution global climate models' (GCMs) projections for the 21st century were dynamically downscaled to 6 km resolution over Peninsular Malaysia by a regional numerical climate model, which was then coupled with the watershed hydrology model WEHY through the atmospheric boundary layer over the selected watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia. Hydrologic simulations were carried out at hourly increments and at hillslope-scale in order to assess the impacts of climate change on the water balances and flooding conditions at the selected watersheds during the 21st century. The coupled regional climate and hydrology model was simulated for a duration of 90 years for each of the 15 realizations. It is demonstrated that the increase in mean monthly flows due to the impact of expected climate change during 2040-2100 is statistically significant at the selected watersheds. Furthermore, the flood frequency analyses for the selected watersheds indicate an overall increasing trend in the second half of the 21st century.

  14. Methodology for impact assessment in the estuarine/marine environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haven, K.F.

    1975-01-01

    Impacts on the estuarine/marine environment can be assessed in economic terms by tracing the impact flow out of the economic sector through the marine environment and back into the economic sector as changes in natural resource availability. An impact can then be measured by the changes created in the economic sector by changes in resource availability. Primary emphasis is placed on the development of an appropriate ecological model of the estuarine environment for this purpose. Two types, an ecological input/output model and a dynamic (difference equation) model, are proposed. Acceptability criteria for these models include the ability to track lethal and sublethal, direct and indirect (food web), and short- and long-term effects of a variety of pollutants related to the production and use of various energy resources

  15. A statistical proposal for environmental impact assessment of development projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Plazas C, Julian A; De J Lema T, Alvaro; Leon P, Juan Diego

    2009-01-01

    Environmental impact assessment of development projects is a fundamental process, which main goal is to avoid that their construction and functioning, lead to serious and negative consequences on the environment. Some of the most important limitations of the models employed to assess environmental impacts, are the subjectivity of its parameters and weights, and the multicolineality among the variables, which represent high quantities of similar information. This work presents a multivariate statistical-based method that tries to diminish such limitations. For this purpose, environmental impact assessment, is valuated through different environmental impact attributes and environmental elements, synthesized in an environmental quality index (ICA in Spanish). ICA can be applied at different levels, such as at a project level, or applied only at a partial level on one or some environmental components.

  16. Assessing Environmental Impact Indicators in Road Construction Projects in Developing Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamed Marzouk

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Environmental pollution is considered to be one of the main concerns in the construction industry. Environmental pollution has become a major challenge to construction projects due to the huge amount of pollution caused by construction projects. There are different types of environmental impact indicators, such as the greenhouse gas (GHG footprint, eutrophication potential (EP, acidification potential (AP, human health (HH particulate, ozone depletion, and smog. Each of these environmental impact indicators can be linked to different phases of the construction projects. The overall environmental impact indicators can be divided into direct, indirect, and operational emissions. This paper presents a Building Information Modeling (BIM-based methodology for the assessment of environmental impacts in road construction projects. The model takes into account the overall life cycle of the road construction project, which is divided into: manufacturing phase, transportation phase, construction phase, maintenance phase, operational phase, recycling phase, and deconstruction phase. A case study is presented to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed model. The proposed model solves a major problem for road construction project teams who want to assess the environmental impact indicators associated with their project prior to the start of the execution of their projects.

  17. A dynamic simulation model for assessing the overall impact of incentive policies on power system reliability, costs and environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ibanez-Lopez, A.S.; Martinez-Val, J.M.; Moratilla-Soria, B.Y.

    2017-01-01

    The liberalization of power markets has entailed dramatic changes in power system planning worldwide. The inception of new alternative technologies, smart grids and distributed generation and storage is expected to make system planning even more challenging. Government policies still play a major role in the evolution of a country's power generation mix, even in those countries with liberalized markets. This paper presents a System Dynamics model aimed at assessing the overall technical, economic and environmental impact of renewable energy incentives and capacity payment policies. The model has been used to simulate Spain's power industry in order to assess the impact of electric power policies with the goal of getting insights regarding how to achieve an optimum power generation mix. The main conclusions of the present paper are (i) the necessity of specific regulatory actions in Spain in order to keep adequate reliability levels, avoid price spikes and boom and bust investment cycles as well as to deploy specific technologies, (ii) the fact that capacity payments are a better instrument for keeping adequate reserve margins and avoiding power price spikes than renewable energy incentives and (iii) the evidence that both instruments entail additional system costs over the base case scenario. - Highlights: • A System Dynamics model of Spain's power generation mix is proposed. • The overall policy impact on system costs, environment and reliability is assessed. • Current policies are not enough to keep adequate reliability levels. • Capacity payments are an adequate instrument for guaranteeing system reliability. • RES incentives do not solve reliability issues and entail greater system costs.

  18. Impact induced damage assessment by means of Lamb wave image processing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kudela, Pawel; Radzienski, Maciej; Ostachowicz, Wieslaw

    2018-03-01

    The aim of this research is an analysis of full wavefield Lamb wave interaction with impact-induced damage at various impact energies in order to find out the limitation of the wavenumber adaptive image filtering method. In other words, the relation between impact energy and damage detectability will be shown. A numerical model based on the time domain spectral element method is used for modeling of Lamb wave propagation and interaction with barely visible impact damage in a carbon-epoxy laminate. Numerical studies are followed by experimental research on the same material with an impact damage induced by various energy and also a Teflon insert simulating delamination. Wavenumber adaptive image filtering and signal processing are used for damage visualization and assessment for both numerical and experimental full wavefield data. It is shown that it is possible to visualize and assess the impact damage location, size and to some extent severity by using the proposed technique.

  19. Change Agents & Impact Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kørnøv, Lone; Larsen, Sanne Vammen; Hansen, Anne Merrild

    2010-01-01

    One of the challenges facing impact assessment is finding ways to work in research and practice that allow appropriate action and critical interrogation og action to enable and support sustainable change.......One of the challenges facing impact assessment is finding ways to work in research and practice that allow appropriate action and critical interrogation og action to enable and support sustainable change....

  20. Model of environmental life cycle assessment for coal mining operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burchart-Korol, Dorota; Fugiel, Agata; Czaplicka-Kolarz, Krystyna; Turek, Marian

    2016-08-15

    This paper presents a novel approach to environmental assessment of coal mining operations, which enables assessment of the factors that are both directly and indirectly affecting the environment and are associated with the production of raw materials and energy used in processes. The primary novelty of the paper is the development of a computational environmental life cycle assessment (LCA) model for coal mining operations and the application of the model for coal mining operations in Poland. The LCA model enables the assessment of environmental indicators for all identified unit processes in hard coal mines with the life cycle approach. The proposed model enables the assessment of greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) based on the IPCC method and the assessment of damage categories, such as human health, ecosystems and resources based on the ReCiPe method. The model enables the assessment of GHGs for hard coal mining operations in three time frames: 20, 100 and 500years. The model was used to evaluate the coal mines in Poland. It was demonstrated that the largest environmental impacts in damage categories were associated with the use of fossil fuels, methane emissions and the use of electricity, processing of wastes, heat, and steel supports. It was concluded that an environmental assessment of coal mining operations, apart from direct influence from processing waste, methane emissions and drainage water, should include the use of electricity, heat and steel, particularly for steel supports. Because the model allows the comparison of environmental impact assessment for various unit processes, it can be used for all hard coal mines, not only in Poland but also in the world. This development is an important step forward in the study of the impacts of fossil fuels on the environment with the potential to mitigate the impact of the coal industry on the environment. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Explanation of Significant Differences Between Models used to Assess Groundwater Impacts for the Disposal of Greater-Than-Class C Low-Level Radioactive Waste and Greater-Than-Class C-Like Waste Environmental Impact Statement (DOE/EIS-0375-D) and the

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Annette Schafer; Arthur S. Rood; A. Jeffrey Sondrup

    2011-08-01

    Models have been used to assess the groundwater impacts to support the Draft Environmental Impact Statement for the Disposal of Greater-Than-Class C (GTCC) Low-Level Radioactive Waste and GTCC-Like Waste (DOE-EIS 2011) for a facility sited at the Idaho National Laboratory and the Environmental Assessment for the INL Remote-Handled Low-Level Waste Disposal Project (INL 2011). Groundwater impacts are primarily a function of (1) location determining the geologic and hydrologic setting, (2) disposal facility configuration, and (3) radionuclide source, including waste form and release from the waste form. In reviewing the assumptions made between the model parameters for the two different groundwater impacts assessments, significant differences were identified. This report presents the two sets of model assumptions and discusses their origins and implications for resulting dose predictions. Given more similar model parameters, predicted doses would be commensurate.

  2. Assessing the EC ILUC proposal. Dutch national ILUC Impact Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peters, D.; Toop, G.; Van den Bos, A.; Spoettle, M.

    2013-04-15

    Indirect Land Use Change (ILUC) is the effect that when existing agricultural land producing food is used for biofuel feedstock production, food production is reduced and this reduction is partially compensated by the conversion of non-agricultural land into new cropland elsewhere. ILUC can have a negative impact on the GHG performance of biofuels and can lead to loss of biodiversity. ILUC, its quantification and possible policy measures have been debated in the EU since 2008. The final legislative text to be negotiated on the basis of the ILUC proposal is likely to have a profound impact on the current EU biofuels market but especially on its future development. This report assesses the legal soundness and factual basis of the proposal. It also assesses the policy risks, effectiveness of, and economic consequences resulting from the four most important proposed measures. Alternative scenarios are explored for each of the proposed measures. The report starts with a description of the Dutch biofuels market as the current situation and future perspective of this market is naturally of specific concern for Dutch negotiators in Brussels. This report takes the IFPRI (International Food Policy Research Institute) 2011 modelling study as a starting point when assessing the ILUC impacts of EU biofuels. The IFPRI study modelling results assign high ILUC emissions to conventional biodiesel and assigns much lower ILUC emissions to conventional ethanol. The study does not model ILUC effects of advanced biofuels. The Dutch biofuels market is dominated by biodiesel, of which a large share is double counting. Following the IFPRI 2011 ILUC modelling, this means that a high share of biofuels with a high ILUC risk are supplied to the market but also a high share of advanced, double counting biofuels with a low to medium ILUC risk. The Netherlands hosts a relatively large oilseed crushing and biofuel production industry, of which an important share consists of advanced biofuel

  3. Enhancing a rainfall-runoff model to assess the impacts of BMPs and LID practices on storm runoff.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yaoze; Ahiablame, Laurent M; Bralts, Vincent F; Engel, Bernard A

    2015-01-01

    Best management practices (BMPs) and low impact development (LID) practices are increasingly being used as stormwater management techniques to reduce the impacts of urban development on hydrology and water quality. To assist planners and decision-makers at various stages of development projects (planning, implementation, and evaluation), user-friendly tools are needed to assess the effectiveness of BMPs and LID practices. This study describes a simple tool, the Long-Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment-LID (L-THIA-LID), which is enhanced with additional BMPs and LID practices, improved approaches to estimate hydrology and water quality, and representation of practices in series (meaning combined implementation). The tool was used to evaluate the performance of BMPs and LID practices individually and in series with 30 years of daily rainfall data in four types of idealized land use units and watersheds (low density residential, high density residential, industrial, and commercial). Simulation results were compared with the results of other published studies. The simulated results showed that reductions in runoff volume and pollutant loads after implementing BMPs and LID practices, both individually and in series, were comparable with the observed impacts of these practices. The L-THIA-LID 2.0 model is capable of assisting decision makers in evaluating environmental impacts of BMPs and LID practices, thereby improving the effectiveness of stormwater management decisions. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Assessment of Fluctuating Reservoir Elevations Using Hydraulic Models and Impacts to Larval Pacific Lamprey Rearing Habitat in the Bonneville Pool

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mueller, Robert P. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Rakowski, Cynthia L. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Perkins, William A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Richmond, Marshall C. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-02-24

    This report presents the results of a modeling assessment of likely lamprey larval habitat that may be impacted by dewatering of the major tributary delta regions in the Bonneville Pool of the Columbia River. This assessment was conducted by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Portland District (CENWP). The goal of the study was to provide baseline data about how the regions of interest would potentially be impacted at three river flows (10, 50, and 90 percent exceedance flow) for four different forebay elevations at Bonneville Dam. Impacts of unsteady flows at The Dalles Dam and changing forebay elevation at Bonneville Dam for a 2-week period were also assessed. The area of dewatered regions was calculated by importing modeled data outputs into a GIS and then calculating the change in inundated area near tributary deltas for the four Bonneville forebay surface elevations. From the modeled output we determined that the overall change in area is less sensitive to elevations changes during higher river discharges. Changing the forebay elevation at Bonneville and the resulting impact to total dewatered regions was greater at the lowest modeled river flow (97 kcfs) and showed the greatest variation at the White Salmon/Hood River delta regions followed by the Wind, Klickitat and the Little White Salmon rivers. To understand how inundation might change on a daily and hourly basis. Unsteady flow models were run for a 2-week period in 2002 and compared to 2014. The water surface elevation in the upstream pool closely follows that of the Bonneville Dam forebay with rapid changes of 1 to 2-ft possible. The data shows that 2.5-ft variation in water surface elevation occurred during this period in 2002 and a 3.7-ft change occurred in 2014. The duration of these changes were highly variable and generally did not stay constant for more than a 5-hr period.

  5. Assessing the influence of climate model uncertanty on EU-wide climate impact indicators

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lung, T.; Dosio, A.; Becker, W.; Lavalle, C.; Bouwer, L.M.

    2013-01-01

    Despite an increasing understanding of potential climate change impacts in Europe, the associated uncertainties remain a key challenge. In many impact studies, the assessment of uncertainties is underemphasised, or is not performed quantitatively. A key source of uncertainty is the variability of

  6. Modeling the impact of climate change in Germany with biosphere models for long-term safety assessment of nuclear waste repositories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Staudt, C.; Semiochkina, N.; Kaiser, J.C.; Pröhl, G.

    2013-01-01

    Biosphere models are used to evaluate the exposure of populations to radionuclides from a deep geological repository. Since the time frame for assessments of long-time disposal safety is 1 million years, potential future climate changes need to be accounted for. Potential future climate conditions were defined for northern Germany according to model results from the BIOCLIM project. Nine present day reference climate regions were defined to cover those future climate conditions. A biosphere model was developed according to the BIOMASS methodology of the IAEA and model parameters were adjusted to the conditions at the reference climate regions. The model includes exposure pathways common to those reference climate regions in a stylized biosphere and relevant to the exposure of a hypothetical self-sustaining population at the site of potential radionuclide contamination from a deep geological repository. The end points of the model are Biosphere Dose Conversion factors (BDCF) for a range of radionuclides and scenarios normalized for a constant radionuclide concentration in near-surface groundwater. Model results suggest an increased exposure of in dry climate regions with a high impact of drinking water consumption rates and the amount of irrigation water used for agriculture. - Highlights: ► We model Biosphere Dose Conversion Factors for a representative group exposed to radionuclides from a waste repository. ► The BDCF are modeled for different soil types. ► One model is used for the assessment of the influence of climate change during the disposal time frame.

  7. Environmental impact assessment for an OTEC plant in Martinique Island

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Auvray, Cedric; Ledoux, Sebastien; Diaz, Berenice; Yvon, Christophe; Pouget-Cuvelier, Adeline

    2015-01-01

    The Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) is a marine renewable energy system that uses the temperature difference between the cold deep waters and warm surface waters to produce electricity. DCNS, a world-expert in naval defence and an innovator in energy has conducted technical, juridical and environmental feasibility studies of a plant offshore Martinique under an agreement with the Regional Council. In this context, DCNS realised a preliminary Environmental Impact Assessment in order to prepare public debate to be done further. Due to innovation of such a project, a specific methodology has been done for that. First step was to study bibliography in details, for site assessment of course, but also for impacts of other projects in the world that should present relevant similarities with OTEC (coastal thermal power plants for example). This bibliographic study dealt with thematic synthesis for each topic of physical, biological and human field that could be impacted by the project (total of 28 topics). The aim was to define priorities for specific assessments that have been done further: acoustic impacts, biogeochemical impacts of artificial upwelling, biofouling impacts, etc. Some of these topics are now on course with specific scientific research programs that have been launched at the end of this study. For each new topic, a specific methodology has been used or adapted for OTEC. These methods are made step by step, with a preliminary approach followed by a specific research program when it is necessary. Noise prediction has been done with a specific tool used for ship construction industry and a 3D propagation modelling. Biofouling has been assessed by a bibliographic approach and will be precised further with experimental moorings. Biogeochemical and biological impacts due to artificial and localised upwelling are now being studied in details with a double skill approach (physical modelling and plankton analysis), after preliminary water chemicals

  8. Environmental impact assessment of transportation projects: An analysis using an integrated GIS, remote sensing, and spatial modeling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    El-Gafy, Mohamed Anwar

    Transportation projects will have impact on the environment. The general environmental pollution and damage caused by roads is closely associated with the level of economic activity. Although Environmental Impact Assessments (EIAs) are dependent on geo-spatial information in order to make an assessment, there are no rules per se how to conduct an environmental assessment. Also, the particular objective of each assessment is dictated case-by-case, based on what information and analyses are required. The conventional way of Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) study is a time consuming process because it has large number of dependent and independent variables which have to be taken into account, which also have different consequences. With the emergence of satellite remote sensing technology and Geographic Information Systems (GIS), this research presents a new framework for the analysis phase of the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) for transportation projects based on the integration between remote sensing technology, geographic information systems, and spatial modeling. By integrating the merits of the map overlay method and the matrix method, the framework analyzes comprehensively the environmental vulnerability around the road and its impact on the environment. This framework is expected to: (1) improve the quality of the decision making process, (2) be applied both to urban and inter-urban projects, regardless of transport mode, and (3) present the data and make the appropriate analysis to support the decision of the decision-makers and allow them to present these data to the public hearings in a simple manner. Case studies, transportation projects in the State of Florida, were analyzed to illustrate the use of the decision support framework and demonstrate its capabilities. This cohesive and integrated system will facilitate rational decisions through cost effective coordination of environmental information and data management that can be tailored to

  9. Quantitative assessment of aquatic impacts of power plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McKenzie, D.H.; Arnold, E.M.; Skalski, J.R.; Fickeisen, D.H.; Baker, K.S.

    1979-08-01

    Progress is reported in a continuing study of the design and analysis of aquatic environmental monitoring programs for assessing the impacts of nuclear power plants. Analysis of data from Calvert Cliffs, Pilgrim, and San Onofre nuclear power plants confirmed the generic applicability of the control-treatment pairing design suggested by McKenzie et al. (1977). Substantial progress was made on the simulation model evaluation task. A process notebook was compiled in which each model equation was translated into a standardized notation. Individual model testing and evaluating was started. The Aquatic Generalized Environmental Impact Simulator (AGEIS) was developed and will be tested using data from Lake Keowee, South Carolina. Further work is required to test the various models and perfect AGEIS for impact analyses at actual power plant sites. Efforts on the hydrologic modeling task resulted in a compendium of models commonly applied to nuclear power plants and the application of two well-received hydrodynamic models to data from the Surry Nuclear Power Plant in Virginia. Conclusions from the study of these models indicate that slight inaccuracies of boundary data have little influence on mass conservation and accurate bathymetry data are necessary for conservation of mass through the model calculations. The hydrologic modeling task provides valuable reference information for model users and monitoring program designers.

  10. Quantitative assessment of aquatic impacts of power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McKenzie, D.H.; Arnold, E.M.; Skalski, J.R.; Fickeisen, D.H.; Baker, K.S.

    1979-08-01

    Progress is reported in a continuing study of the design and analysis of aquatic environmental monitoring programs for assessing the impacts of nuclear power plants. Analysis of data from Calvert Cliffs, Pilgrim, and San Onofre nuclear power plants confirmed the generic applicability of the control-treatment pairing design suggested by McKenzie et al. (1977). Substantial progress was made on the simulation model evaluation task. A process notebook was compiled in which each model equation was translated into a standardized notation. Individual model testing and evaluating was started. The Aquatic Generalized Environmental Impact Simulator (AGEIS) was developed and will be tested using data from Lake Keowee, South Carolina. Further work is required to test the various models and perfect AGEIS for impact analyses at actual power plant sites. Efforts on the hydrologic modeling task resulted in a compendium of models commonly applied to nuclear power plants and the application of two well-received hydrodynamic models to data from the Surry Nuclear Power Plant in Virginia. Conclusions from the study of these models indicate that slight inaccuracies of boundary data have little influence on mass conservation and accurate bathymetry data are necessary for conservation of mass through the model calculations. The hydrologic modeling task provides valuable reference information for model users and monitoring program designers

  11. Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming - simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frieler, Katja; Lange, Stefan; Piontek, Franziska; Reyer, Christopher P. O.; Schewe, Jacob; Warszawski, Lila; Zhao, Fang; Chini, Louise; Denvil, Sebastien; Emanuel, Kerry; Geiger, Tobias; Halladay, Kate; Hurtt, George; Mengel, Matthias; Murakami, Daisuke; Ostberg, Sebastian; Popp, Alexander; Riva, Riccardo; Stevanovic, Miodrag; Suzuki, Tatsuo; Volkholz, Jan; Burke, Eleanor; Ciais, Philippe; Ebi, Kristie; Eddy, Tyler D.; Elliott, Joshua; Galbraith, Eric; Gosling, Simon N.; Hattermann, Fred; Hickler, Thomas; Hinkel, Jochen; Hof, Christian; Huber, Veronika; Jägermeyr, Jonas; Krysanova, Valentina; Marcé, Rafael; Müller Schmied, Hannes; Mouratiadou, Ioanna; Pierson, Don; Tittensor, Derek P.; Vautard, Robert; van Vliet, Michelle; Biber, Matthias F.; Betts, Richard A.; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Deryng, Delphine; Frolking, Steve; Jones, Chris D.; Lotze, Heike K.; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Sahajpal, Ritvik; Thonicke, Kirsten; Tian, Hanqin; Yamagata, Yoshiki

    2017-11-01

    In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways. In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the response devised within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to provide tailored, cross-sectorally consistent impact projections to broaden the scientific basis for the report. The simulation protocol is designed to allow for (1) separation of the impacts of historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from impacts of other drivers such as historical land-use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations); (2) quantification of the impacts of additional warming up to 1.5 °C, including a potential overshoot and long-term impacts up to 2299, and comparison to higher levels of global mean temperature change (based on the low-emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation pathway RCP6.0) with socio-economic conditions fixed at 2005 levels; and (3) assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios while accounting for simultaneous changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle-of-the-road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2, Fricko et al., 2016) and in particular differential bioenergy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to comply with RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. With the aim of providing the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and analysis of cross-sectoral interactions that may dampen or amplify sectoral impacts, the protocol is designed to facilitate consistent impact projections from a range of impact models across different sectors (global

  12. Assessing the impact of model spin-up on surface water-groundwater interactions using an integrated hydrologic model

    KAUST Repository

    Ajami, Hoori

    2014-03-01

    Integrated land surface-groundwater models are valuable tools in simulating the terrestrial hydrologic cycle as a continuous system and exploring the extent of land surface-subsurface interactions from catchment to regional scales. However, the fidelity of model simulations is impacted not only by the vegetation and subsurface parameterizations, but also by the antecedent condition of model state variables, such as the initial soil moisture, depth to groundwater, and ground temperature. In land surface modeling, a given model is often run repeatedly over a single year of forcing data until it reaches an equilibrium state: the point at which there is minimal artificial drift in the model state or prognostic variables (most often the soil moisture). For more complex coupled and integrated systems, where there is an increased computational cost of simulation and the number of variables sensitive to initialization is greater than in traditional uncoupled land surface modeling schemes, the challenge is to minimize the impact of initialization while using the smallest spin-up time possible. In this study, multicriteria analysis was performed to assess the spin-up behavior of the ParFlow.CLM integrated groundwater-surface water-land surface model over a 208 km2 subcatchment of the Ringkobing Fjord catchment in Denmark. Various measures of spin-up performance were computed for model state variables such as the soil moisture and groundwater storage, as well as for diagnostic variables such as the latent and sensible heat fluxes. The impacts of initial conditions on surface water-groundwater interactions were then explored. Our analysis illustrates that the determination of an equilibrium state depends strongly on the variable and performance measure used. Choosing an improper initialization of the model can generate simulations that lead to a misinterpretation of land surface-subsurface feedback processes and result in large biases in simulated discharge. Estimated spin

  13. Handbook for value-impact assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heaberlin, S.W.; Burnham, J.B.; Gallucci, R.H.V.

    1983-12-01

    The basic purpose of this handbook is to document a set of systematic procedures for providing information that can be used in performing value-impact assessments of Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) regulatory actions. The handbook describes a structured but flexible process for performing the assessment. Chapter 1 is an introduction to the value-impact assessment process. Chapter 2 describes the attributes most frequently affected by proposed NRC actions, provides guidance concerningthe appropriate level of effort to be devoted to the assessment, suggests a standard format for documenting the assessment, and discusses the treatment of uncertainty. Chapter 3 contains detailed methods for evaluating each of the attributes affected by a regulatory action. The handbook has five appendixes containing background information, technical data, and example applications of the value-impact assessment procedures. This edition of the handbook focuses primarily on assessing nuclear power reactor safety issues

  14. Bioregional Assessments: Determining the Impacts of Coal Resource Development on Water Resources in Australia through Groundwater, Surface Water and Ecological Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peeters, L. J.; Post, D. A.; Crosbie, R.; Holland, K.

    2017-12-01

    While extraction of methane from shale gas deposits has been the principal source of the recent expansion of the industry in the United States, in Australia extraction of methane from coal bed methane deposits (termed `coal seam gas' in Australia) has been the focus to date. The two sources of methane share many of the same characteristics including the potential requirement for hydraulic fracturing. However, as coal seam gas deposits generally occur at shallower depths than shale gas, the potential impacts of extraction on surface and groundwater resources may be of even greater concern. The Australian Federal Government commissioned a multi-disciplinary programme of bioregional assessments to improve understanding of the potential impacts of coal seam gas and large coal mining activities on water resources and water-dependent assets across six bioregions Australia. A bioregional assessment is a transparent scientific analysis of the ecology, hydrology, geology and hydrogeology of a bioregion with explicit assessment of the potential direct, indirect and cumulative impacts of coal seam gas and large coal mining development on water resources. The first step in the analysis is to establish the most likely scenario for coal development in each region and establish a causal pathway linking coal development to impacts to the social, economic and ecological functioning of water resources. This forms the basis for a sequence of probabilistic geological, hydrogeological, hydrological and ecological models to quantify the probability of potential impacts. This suite of models is developed independent of the proponents and regulators of coal resource developments and so can provide unbiased information to all stakeholders. To demonstrate transparency of the modelling, all inputs, outputs and executables will be available from http://www.bioregionalassessments.gov.au. The analysis delineated a zone of potential hydrological change for each region, outside of which impacts

  15. Model collaboration for improved assessment of biomass supply, demand and impacts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wicke, B.; et al, .

    2014-01-01

    Existing assessments of biomass supply and demand and their impacts face various types of limitations and uncertainties, partly due to the type of tools and methods applied (e.g., partial representation of sectors, lack of geographical details, and aggregated representation of technologies

  16. A multi-scale metrics approach to forest fragmentation for Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Eunyoung, E-mail: eykim@kei.re.kr [Korea Environment Institute, 215 Jinheungno, Eunpyeong-gu, Seoul 122-706 (Korea, Republic of); Song, Wonkyong, E-mail: wksong79@gmail.com [Suwon Research Institute, 145 Gwanggyo-ro, Yeongtong-gu, Suwon-si, Gyeonggi-do 443-270 (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Dongkun, E-mail: dklee7@snu.ac.kr [Department of Landscape Architecture and Rural System Engineering, Seoul National University, 599 Gwanakro, Gwanak-gu, Seoul 151-921 (Korea, Republic of); Research Institute for Agriculture and Life Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul 151-921 (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-09-15

    Forests are becoming severely fragmented as a result of land development. South Korea has responded to changing community concerns about environmental issues. The nation has developed and is extending a broad range of tools for use in environmental management. Although legally mandated environmental compliance requirements in South Korea have been implemented to predict and evaluate the impacts of land-development projects, these legal instruments are often insufficient to assess the subsequent impact of development on the surrounding forests. It is especially difficult to examine impacts on multiple (e.g., regional and local) scales in detail. Forest configuration and size, including forest fragmentation by land development, are considered on a regional scale. Moreover, forest structure and composition, including biodiversity, are considered on a local scale in the Environmental Impact Assessment process. Recently, the government amended the Environmental Impact Assessment Act, including the SEA, EIA, and small-scale EIA, to require an integrated approach. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to establish an impact assessment system that minimizes the impacts of land development using an approach that is integrated across multiple scales. This study focused on forest fragmentation due to residential development and road construction sites in selected Congestion Restraint Zones (CRZs) in the Greater Seoul Area of South Korea. Based on a review of multiple-scale impacts, this paper integrates models that assess the impacts of land development on forest ecosystems. The applicability of the integrated model for assessing impacts on forest ecosystems through the SEIA process is considered. On a regional scale, it is possible to evaluate the location and size of a land-development project by considering aspects of forest fragmentation, such as the stability of the forest structure and the degree of fragmentation. On a local scale, land-development projects should

  17. Let us make impact assessment more accessible

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alton, Charles C.; Underwood, P. Benjamin

    2003-01-01

    Impact assessment professionals have traditionally written documents for themselves. Often, their work appears to be received with indifference by business professionals and decision makers who have different needs and interests. The two groups conflict when they should be thinking and planning together at the 'big picture' level (including the understanding of the social factors at work in environmental impact assessment) and developing related and workable 'site-specific' implementation that characterizes socially acceptable decision making. To achieve this goal, the IA professional needs to rethink the approach. IA professionals often focus on the traditional 'physical' environment, confining the assessment to facts and figures about hard aspects of the environment. Reams of detailed data are compiled to demonstrate impact assessment and to achieve a degree of certainty and precision. However, the sheer bulk of data assures that it will not be read by those who most need to use it. The IA professional must learn to prepare assessments that effectively consider less quantifiable, 'softer' aspects of the environment. We advocate preparation of an impact analysis that management decision makers and environmental stewards can use as a reference tool. The goal is to reduce or eliminate the hundreds of unread pages containing lengthy modeling runs and obscure details, and instead to prepare documents that are useful in both courtroom and boardroom. This convenient and quick-study 'consumer report' style combines with a tiered decision making process that assures broad long-term thinking and planning, and focused short-term detailed implementation, using a level of detail appropriate to the decision at hand. This methodology integrates social factors into decision making, so as to provide meaningful discussion and analysis. These principles, which have been proven in US boardrooms and courtrooms, will be illustrated with actual examples from broad policy-level impact

  18. Impact assessment of tornado against nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sato, Daisuke

    2015-01-01

    The impact assessment of tornado against nuclear power plants conforms to the 'Assessment guide for tornado effect on nuclear power plants' stipulated by the Nuclear Regulation Authority. In face of the assessment, important items are the setting of the maximum wind speed considered in design, and the setting of a flying object evaluation model, on the basis of observation results. The Japan Society of Maintenology summarized the verification results of the concept on the setting of tornado design and flying object valuation model, the contents of which are explained here. The following are explained: (1) validity of the setting of tornado design in the Assessment Guide, (2) analysis of synoptic field, (3) study on the regional characteristics of tornado occurrence environmental field by means of the analysis of synoptic field and gust associated index, and (4) setting of tornado design based on the above (1)-(3). Next, on the flying object evaluation model, the authors picked up the Rankine vortex model and Fujita model, and verified the reproducibility of the models using the features of each and the actual state of tornado damage. (A.O.)

  19. Assessing the Impacts of Multiple Breadbasket Failures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casellas Connors, J. P.; Janetos, A.

    2016-12-01

    A relatively small area of the world accounts for a large proportion of total global cereal production, with most of the area devoted to the production of the world's three major cereal crops, rice, wheat and maize. An extensive literature of the sensitivity of agricultural productivity of these crops, and many others, has arisen over the past 25 years, with a general consensus that continued change in the physical climate system will very likely increase the difficulty of agricultural production in areas of the world that are already marginal with respect to production. But what this research only rarely does is assess the influence of extreme events in shocking agricultural production, and how the rest of the agricultural system reacts, in terms of prices, food insecurity, subsequent land-use change, and terrestrial carbon emissions, among many other possible responses. Because the agricultural system is interlinked with energy systems, food distribution and transportation systems, and economic systems, models that focus only on agricultural productivity can only provide a unidimensional view of the magnitude of potential impacts. We know such impacts can occur as a consequence of extreme climatic events, because they have - the impact of the severe regional drought and heat wave on the Russian and Ukrainian wheat harvests in 2010 had global consequences for food prices, just as one example. In this paper, we use an Integrated Assessment Model, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), to investigate the potential outcomes of both moderate and severe shocks to agricultural productivity in the major breadbaskets of the world - both singly and in combination. The results demonstrate clearly that there are likely to be multidimensional consequences from the kinds of shocks that are possible from a rapidly changing climate system, especially when combined with other demographic and economic trends in the coming decades. These results are only one aspect of

  20. Environmental impact and risk assessments and key factors contributing to the overall uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salbu, Brit

    2016-01-01

    There is a significant number of nuclear and radiological sources that have contributed, are still contributing, or have the potential to contribute to radioactive contamination of the environment in the future. To protect the environment from radioactive contamination, impact and risk assessments are performed prior to or during a release event, short or long term after deposition or prior and after implementation of countermeasures. When environmental impact and risks are assessed, however, a series of factors will contribute to the overall uncertainties. To provide environmental impact and risk assessments, information on processes, kinetics and a series of input variables is needed. Adding problems such as variability, questionable assumptions, gaps in knowledge, extrapolations and poor conceptual model structures, a series of factors are contributing to large and often unacceptable uncertainties in impact and risk assessments. Information on the source term and the release scenario is an essential starting point in impact and risk models; the source determines activity concentrations and atom ratios of radionuclides released, while the release scenario determine the physico-chemical forms of released radionuclides such as particle size distribution, structure and density. Releases will most often contain other contaminants such as metals, and due to interactions, contaminated sites should be assessed as a multiple stressor scenario. Following deposition, a series of stressors, interactions and processes will influence the ecosystem transfer of radionuclide species and thereby influence biological uptake (toxicokinetics) and responses (toxicodynamics) in exposed organisms. Due to the variety of biological species, extrapolation is frequently needed to fill gaps in knowledge e.g., from effects to no effects, from effects in one organism to others, from one stressor to mixtures. Most toxtests are, however, performed as short term exposure of adult organisms

  1. Environmental impact assessment of fish farm hatcheries ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Environmental impact assessment of fish farm hatcheries management in lower ... Environmental impact assessments were taken to determine the causes of ... Of significance of impact assessment were activities like air, traffic, noise, had ...

  2. Green Template for Life Cycle Assessment of Buildings Based on Building Information Modeling: Focus on Embodied Environmental Impact

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sungwoo Lee

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The increased popularity of building information modeling (BIM for application in the construction of eco-friendly green buildings has given rise to techniques for evaluating green buildings constructed using BIM features. Existing BIM-based green building evaluation techniques mostly rely on externally provided evaluation tools, which pose problems associated with interoperability, including a lack of data compatibility and the amount of time required for format conversion. To overcome these problems, this study sets out to develop a template (the “green template” for evaluating the embodied environmental impact of using a BIM design tool as part of BIM-based building life-cycle assessment (LCA technology development. Firstly, the BIM level of detail (LOD was determined to evaluate the embodied environmental impact, and constructed a database of the impact factors of the embodied environmental impact of the major building materials, thereby adopting an LCA-based approach. The libraries of major building elements were developed by using the established databases and compiled evaluation table of the embodied environmental impact of the building materials. Finally, the green template was developed as an embodied environmental impact evaluation tool and a case study was performed to test its applicability. The results of the green template-based embodied environmental impact evaluation of a test building were validated against those of its actual quantity takeoff (2D takeoff, and its reliability was confirmed by an effective error rate of ≤5%. This study aims to develop a system for assessing the impact of the substances discharged from concrete production process on six environmental impact categories, i.e., global warming (GWP, acidification (AP, eutrophication (EP, abiotic depletion (ADP, ozone depletion (ODP, and photochemical oxidant creation (POCP, using the life a cycle assessment (LCA method. To achieve this, we proposed an LCA method

  3. Encouraging translation and assessing impact of the Centre for Research Excellence in Integrated Quality Improvement: rationale and protocol for a research impact assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramanathan, Shanthi; Reeves, Penny; Deeming, Simon; Bailie, Ross Stewart; Bailie, Jodie; Bainbridge, Roxanne; Cunningham, Frances; Doran, Christopher; McPhail Bell, Karen; Searles, Andrew

    2017-12-04

    There is growing recognition among health researchers and funders that the wider benefits of research such as economic, social and health impacts ought to be assessed and valued alongside academic outputs such as peer-reviewed papers. Research translation needs to increase and the pathways to impact ought to be more transparent. These processes are particularly pertinent to the Indigenous health sector given continued concerns that Indigenous communities are over-researched with little corresponding improvement in health outcomes. This paper describes the research protocol of a mixed methods study to apply FAIT (Framework to Assess the Impact from Translational health research) to the Centre for Research Excellence in Integrated Quality Improvement (CRE-IQI). FAIT will be applied to five selected CRE-IQI Flagship projects to encourage research translation and assess the wider impact of that research. Phase I will develop a modified programme logic model for each Flagship project including identifying process, output and impact metrics so progress can be monitored. A scoping review will inform potential benefits. In phase II, programme logic models will be updated to account for changes in the research pathways over time. Audit and feedback will be used to encourage research translation and collect evidence of achievement of any process, output and interim impacts. In phase III, three proven methodologies for measuring research impact-Payback, economic assessment and narratives-will be applied. Data on the application of FAIT will be collected and analysed to inform and improve FAIT's performance. This study is funded by a nationally competitive grant (ID 1078927) from the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council. Ethics approval was obtained from the University of Newcastle's Human Research Ethics Committee (ID: H-2017-0026). The results from the study will be presented in several peer-reviewed publications, through conference presentations and via

  4. Environmental impact assessment: Process and implementation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, S.Y.; Tsai, S.Y.

    1989-01-01

    In this paper, the procedures and issues regarding the preparation of an environmental impact assessment in accordance with the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) as promulgated by the US Congress in 1969 are discussed. NEPA procedures and requirements are covered in general, while particular attention is given to the preparation of the environmental impact assessment. Also included is a discussion of the social impact assessment. The aim of the social impact assessment is to address the social issues involved in enhancing public understanding of the hazardous risks, thereby mitigating any conflicts that may arise in the NEPA process. 3 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab

  5. Developments in Social Impact Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vanclay, Frank

    2014-01-01

    Along with environmental impact assessment, social impact assessment (SIA) has its origins in the 1970s and has developed from being a tool to meet regulatory requirements, to a discipline that seeks to contribute proactively to better project and policy development and to enhance the wellbeing of

  6. SWAT Model Application to Assess the Impact of Intensive Corn‐farming on Runoff, Sediments and Phosphorous loss from an Agricultural Watershed in Wisconsin

    Science.gov (United States)

    The potential future increase in corn-based biofuel may be expected to have a negative impact on water quality in streams and lakes of the Midwestern US due to increased agricultural chemicals usage. This study used the SWAT model to assess the impact of continuous-corn farming o...

  7. How to assess extreme weather impacts - case European transport network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leviäkangas, P.

    2010-09-01

    To assess the impacts of climate change and preparing for impacts is a process. This process we must understand and learn to apply. EWENT (Extreme Weather impacts on European Networks of Transport) will be a test bench for one prospective approach. It has the following main components: 1) identifying what is "extreme", 2) assessing the change in the probabilities, 3) constructing the causal impact models, 4) finding appropriate methods of pricing and costing, 5) finding alternative strategy option, 6) assessing the efficiency of strategy option. This process follows actually the steps of standardized risk management process. Each step is challenging, but if EWENT project succeeds to assess the extreme weather impacts on European transport networks, it is one possible benchmark how to carry out similar analyses in other regions and on country level. EWENT approach could particularly useful for weather and climate information service providers, offering tools for transport authorities and financiers to assess weather risks, and then rationally managing the risks. EWENT project is financed by the European Commission and participated by met-service organisations and transport research institutes from different parts of Europe. The presentation will explain EWENT approach in detail and bring forth the findings of the first work packages.

  8. Environmental impact assessment - a selected bibliography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lawson, W.J.

    1989-01-01

    This bibliography of literature relevant to the environmental impact assessment process is essentially a list of material dealing with the environmental impact assessment process held by Griffith University Library. The list is however well supplemented with citations of material not held in the Griffith University Library. Some economic and social impact assessment citations have been included in the bibliography, as the the environmental impact assessment concept has been interpreted very broadly. The citations are arranged according to broad subject areas, such as methodology, critical reviews, social impacts etc. Citations in each of these subject areas, which are listed in the table of contents, are identified by prefixes which are given in parentheses before the subjects headings. Within each subject area the citations are arragend in alphabetic author sequence

  9. 40 CFR 227.22 - Assessment of impact.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... FOR THE EVALUATION OF PERMIT APPLICATIONS FOR OCEAN DUMPING OF MATERIALS Impact of the Proposed Dumping on Other Uses of the Ocean § 227.22 Assessment of impact. The assessment of impact on other uses... 40 Protection of Environment 24 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Assessment of impact. 227.22 Section...

  10. Impact assessment of land use planning driving forces on environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Longgao, E-mail: chenlonggao@163.com [Institute of Land Resources, Jiangsu Normal University (JSNU), Xuzhou 221116 (China); Yang, Xiaoyan [Institute of Land Resources, Jiangsu Normal University (JSNU), Xuzhou 221116 (China); School of Environment and Spatial Informatics, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou 221116 (China); Chen, Longqian [School of Environment and Spatial Informatics, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou 221116 (China); Li, Long [Department of Geography, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels 1050 (Belgium)

    2015-11-15

    Land use change may exert a negative impact on environmental quality. A state–impact–state (SIS) model describing a state transform under certain impacts has been integrated into land use planning (LUP) environmental impact assessment (LUPEA). This logical model is intuitive and easy to understand, but the exploration of impact is essential to establish the indicator system and to identify the scope of land use environmental impact when it is applied to a specific region. In this study, we investigated environmental driving forces from land use planning (LUPF), along with the conception, components, scope, and impact of LUPF. This method was illustrated by a case study in Zoucheng, China. Through the results, we concluded that (1) the LUPF on environment are impacts originated from the implementation of LUP on a regional environment, which are characterized by four aspects: magnitude, direction, action point, and its owner; (2) various scopes of LUPF on individual environmental elements based on different standards jointly define the final scope of LUPEA; (3) our case study in Zoucheng demonstrates the practicability of this proposed approach; (4) this method can be embedded into LUPEA with direction, magnitudes, and scopes of the LUPF on individual elements obtained, and the identified indicator system can be directly employed into LUPEA and (5) the assessment helps to identify key indicators and to set up a corresponding strategy to mitigate the negative impact of LUP on the environment, which are two important objectives of strategic environmental assessment (SEA) in LUP. - Highlights: • Environmental driving forces from land use planning (LUPF) are investigated and categorized. • Our method can obtains the direction, magnitudes and scopes of environmental driving forces. • The LUPEA scope is determined by the combination of various scopes of LUPF on individual elements. • LUPF assessment can be embedded into LUPEA. • The method can help to

  11. Modeling occupants in far-side impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douglas, Clay; Fildes, Brian; Gibson, Tom

    2011-10-01

    Far-side impacts are not part of any regulated NCAP, FMVSS, or similar test regime despite accounting for 43 percent of the seriously injured persons and 30 percent of the harm in U.S. side impact crashes. Furthermore, injuries to the head and thorax account for over half of the serious injuries sustained by occupants in far-side crashes. Despite this, there is no regulated or well-accepted anthropomorphic test device (ATD) or computer model available to investigate far-side impacts. As such, this presents an opportunity to assess a computer model that can be used to measure the effect of varying restraint parameters on occupant biomechanics in far-side impacts. This study sets out to demonstrate the modified TASS human facet model's (MOTHMO) capabilities in modeling whole-body response in far-side impacts. MOTHMO's dynamic response was compared to that of postmortem human subjects (PMHS), WorldSID, and Thor-NT in a series of far-side sled tests. The advantages, disadvantages, and differences of using MOTHMO compared to ATDs were highlighted and described in terms of model design and instrumentation. Potential applications and improvements for MOTHMO were also recommended. The results showed that MOTHMO is capable of replicating the seat belt-to-shoulder complex interaction, pelvis impacts, head displacement, neck and shoulder belt loading from inboard mounted belts, and impacts from multiple directions. Overall, the model performed better than Thor-NT and at least as well as WorldSID when compared to PMHS results. Though WorldSID and Thor-NT ATDs were capable of reproducing many of these impact loads, measuring the seat belt-to-shoulder complex interaction and thoracic deflection at multiple sites and directions was less accurately handled. This study demonstrated that MOTHMO is capable of modeling whole-body response in far-side impacts. Furthermore, MOTHMO can be used as a virtual design tool to explore the effect of varying restraint parameters on occupant

  12. Environmental Impact Assessment: A Procedure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stover, Lloyd V.

    Prepared by a firm of consulting engineers, this booklet outlines the procedural "whys and hows" of assessing environmental impact, particularly for the construction industry. Section I explores the need for environmental assessment and evaluation to determine environmental impact. It utilizes a review of the National Environmental Policy Act and…

  13. Fragility assessment method of Concrete Wall Subjected to Impact Loading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hahm, Daegi; Shin, Sang Shup; Choi, In-Kil

    2014-01-01

    These studies have been aimed to verify and ensure the safety of the targeted walls and structures especially in the viewpoint of the deterministic approach. However, recently, the regulation and the assessment of the safety of the nuclear power plants (NPPs) against to an aircraft impact are strongly encouraged to adopt a probabilistic approach, i.e., the probabilistic risk assessment of an aircraft impact. In Korea, research to develop aircraft impact risk quantification technology was initiated in 2012 by Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI). In this paper, for the one example of the probabilistic safety assessment approach, a method to estimate the failure probability and fragility of concrete wall subjected to impact loading caused by missiles or engine parts of aircrafts will be introduced. This method and the corresponding results will be used for the total technical roadmap and the procedure to assess the aircraft impact risk (Fig.1). A method and corresponding results of the estimation of the failure probability and fragility for a concrete wall subjected to impact loadings caused by missiles or engine parts of aircrafts was introduced. The detailed information of the target concrete wall in NPP, and the example aircraft engine model is considered safeguard information (SGI), and is not contained in this paper

  14. Environmental impact and risk assessments and key factors contributing to the overall uncertainties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salbu, Brit

    2016-01-01

    There is a significant number of nuclear and radiological sources that have contributed, are still contributing, or have the potential to contribute to radioactive contamination of the environment in the future. To protect the environment from radioactive contamination, impact and risk assessments are performed prior to or during a release event, short or long term after deposition or prior and after implementation of countermeasures. When environmental impact and risks are assessed, however, a series of factors will contribute to the overall uncertainties. To provide environmental impact and risk assessments, information on processes, kinetics and a series of input variables is needed. Adding problems such as variability, questionable assumptions, gaps in knowledge, extrapolations and poor conceptual model structures, a series of factors are contributing to large and often unacceptable uncertainties in impact and risk assessments. Information on the source term and the release scenario is an essential starting point in impact and risk models; the source determines activity concentrations and atom ratios of radionuclides released, while the release scenario determine the physico-chemical forms of released radionuclides such as particle size distribution, structure and density. Releases will most often contain other contaminants such as metals, and due to interactions, contaminated sites should be assessed as a multiple stressor scenario. Following deposition, a series of stressors, interactions and processes will influence the ecosystem transfer of radionuclide species and thereby influence biological uptake (toxicokinetics) and responses (toxicodynamics) in exposed organisms. Due to the variety of biological species, extrapolation is frequently needed to fill gaps in knowledge e.g., from effects to no effects, from effects in one organism to others, from one stressor to mixtures. Most toxtests are, however, performed as short term exposure of adult organisms

  15. Industry-Cost-Curve Approach for Modeling the Environmental Impact of Introducing New Technologies in Life Cycle Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kätelhön, Arne; von der Assen, Niklas; Suh, Sangwon; Jung, Johannes; Bardow, André

    2015-07-07

    The environmental costs and benefits of introducing a new technology depend not only on the technology itself, but also on the responses of the market where substitution or displacement of competing technologies may occur. An internationally accepted method taking both technological and market-mediated effects into account, however, is still lacking in life cycle assessment (LCA). For the introduction of a new technology, we here present a new approach for modeling the environmental impacts within the framework of LCA. Our approach is motivated by consequential life cycle assessment (CLCA) and aims to contribute to the discussion on how to operationalize consequential thinking in LCA practice. In our approach, we focus on new technologies producing homogeneous products such as chemicals or raw materials. We employ the industry cost-curve (ICC) for modeling market-mediated effects. Thereby, we can determine substitution effects at a level of granularity sufficient to distinguish between competing technologies. In our approach, a new technology alters the ICC potentially replacing the highest-cost producer(s). The technologies that remain competitive after the new technology's introduction determine the new environmental impact profile of the product. We apply our approach in a case study on a new technology for chlor-alkali electrolysis to be introduced in Germany.

  16. International Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (I-JEDI) Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2016-09-01

    International Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (I-JEDI) is a freely available economic model that estimates gross economic impacts from wind, solar, biomass, and geothermal energy projects. Building on a similar model for the United States, I-JEDI was developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory under the U.S. government's Enhancing Capacity for Low Emission Development Strategies (EC-LEDS) program to support partner countries in assessing economic impacts of LEDS actions in the energy sector.

  17. Multi-model assessment of the impact of soil moisture initialization on mid-latitude summer predictability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ardilouze, Constantin; Batté, L.; Bunzel, F.; Decremer, D.; Déqué, M.; Doblas-Reyes, F. J.; Douville, H.; Fereday, D.; Guemas, V.; MacLachlan, C.; Müller, W.; Prodhomme, C.

    2017-12-01

    Land surface initial conditions have been recognized as a potential source of predictability in sub-seasonal to seasonal forecast systems, at least for near-surface air temperature prediction over the mid-latitude continents. Yet, few studies have systematically explored such an influence over a sufficient hindcast period and in a multi-model framework to produce a robust quantitative assessment. Here, a dedicated set of twin experiments has been carried out with boreal summer retrospective forecasts over the 1992-2010 period performed by five different global coupled ocean-atmosphere models. The impact of a realistic versus climatological soil moisture initialization is assessed in two regions with high potential previously identified as hotspots of land-atmosphere coupling, namely the North American Great Plains and South-Eastern Europe. Over the latter region, temperature predictions show a significant improvement, especially over the Balkans. Forecast systems better simulate the warmest summers if they follow pronounced dry initial anomalies. It is hypothesized that models manage to capture a positive feedback between high temperature and low soil moisture content prone to dominate over other processes during the warmest summers in this region. Over the Great Plains, however, improving the soil moisture initialization does not lead to any robust gain of forecast quality for near-surface temperature. It is suggested that models biases prevent the forecast systems from making the most of the improved initial conditions.

  18. A Computer Program for Assessing Nuclear Safety Culture Impact

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Han, Kiyoon; Jae, Moosung [Hanyang Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-10-15

    Through several accidents of NPP including the Fukushima Daiichi in 2011 and Chernobyl accidents in 1986, a lack of safety culture was pointed out as one of the root cause of these accidents. Due to its latent influences on safety performance, safety culture has become an important issue in safety researches. Most of the researches describe how to evaluate the state of the safety culture of the organization. However, they did not include a possibility that the accident occurs due to the lack of safety culture. Because of that, a methodology for evaluating the impact of the safety culture on NPP's safety is required. In this study, the methodology for assessing safety culture impact is suggested and a computer program is developed for its application. SCII model which is the new methodology for assessing safety culture impact quantitatively by using PSA model. The computer program is developed for its application. This program visualizes the SCIs and the SCIIs. It might contribute to comparing the level of the safety culture among NPPs as well as improving the management safety of NPP.

  19. Economic risk assessment of drought impacts on irrigated agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopez-Nicolas, A.; Pulido-Velazquez, M.; Macian-Sorribes, H.

    2017-07-01

    In this paper we present an innovative framework for an economic risk analysis of drought impacts on irrigated agriculture. It consists on the integration of three components: stochastic time series modelling for prediction of inflows and future reservoir storages at the beginning of the irrigation season; statistical regression for the evaluation of water deliveries based on projected inflows and storages; and econometric modelling for economic assessment of the production value of agriculture based on irrigation water deliveries and crop prices. Therefore, the effect of the price volatility can be isolated from the losses due to water scarcity in the assessment of the drought impacts. Monte Carlo simulations are applied to generate probability functions of inflows, which are translated into probabilities of storages, deliveries, and finally, production value of agriculture. The framework also allows the assessment of the value of mitigation measures as reduction of economic losses during droughts. The approach was applied to the Jucar river basin, a complex system affected by multiannual severe droughts, with irrigated agriculture as the main consumptive demand. Probability distributions of deliveries and production value were obtained for each irrigation season. In the majority of the irrigation districts, drought causes a significant economic impact. The increase of crop prices can partially offset the losses from the reduction of production due to water scarcity in some districts. Emergency wells contribute to mitigating the droughts' impacts on the Jucar river system.

  20. Health impact assessment of particulate pollution in Tallinn using fine spatial resolution and modeling techniques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kimmel Veljo

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Health impact assessments (HIA use information on exposure, baseline mortality/morbidity and exposure-response functions from epidemiological studies in order to quantify the health impacts of existing situations and/or alternative scenarios. The aim of this study was to improve HIA methods for air pollution studies in situations where exposures can be estimated using GIS with high spatial resolution and dispersion modeling approaches. Methods Tallinn was divided into 84 sections according to neighborhoods, with a total population of approx. 390 000 persons. Actual baseline rates for total mortality and hospitalization with cardiovascular and respiratory diagnosis were identified. The exposure to fine particles (PM2.5 from local emissions was defined as the modeled annual levels. The model validation and morbidity assessment were based on 2006 PM10 or PM2.5 levels at 3 monitoring stations. The exposure-response coefficients used were for total mortality 6.2% (95% CI 1.6–11% per 10 μg/m3 increase of annual mean PM2.5 concentration and for the assessment of respiratory and cardiovascular hospitalizations 1.14% (95% CI 0.62–1.67% and 0.73% (95% CI 0.47–0.93% per 10 μg/m3 increase of PM10. The direct costs related to morbidity were calculated according to hospital treatment expenses in 2005 and the cost of premature deaths using the concept of Value of Life Year (VOLY. Results The annual population-weighted-modeled exposure to locally emitted PM2.5 in Tallinn was 11.6 μg/m3. Our analysis showed that it corresponds to 296 (95% CI 76528 premature deaths resulting in 3859 (95% CI 10236636 Years of Life Lost (YLL per year. The average decrease in life-expectancy at birth per resident of Tallinn was estimated to be 0.64 (95% CI 0.17–1.10 years. While in the polluted city centre this may reach 1.17 years, in the least polluted neighborhoods it remains between 0.1 and 0.3 years. When dividing the YLL by the number of

  1. Towards an integrated economic assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lotze-Campen, H.; Piontek, F.; Stevanovic, M.; Popp, A.; Bauer, N.; Dietrich, J.; Mueller, C.; Schmitz, C.

    2012-12-01

    For a detailed understanding of the effects of climate change on global agricultural production systems, it is essential to consider the variability of climate change patterns as projected by General Circulation Models (GCMs), their bio-physical impact on crops and the response in land-use patterns and markets. So far, approaches that account for the interaction of bio-physical and economic impacts are largely lacking. We present an integrative analysis by using a soft-coupled system of a biophysical impact model (LPJmL, Bondeau et al. 2007), an economically driven land use model (MAgPIE, Lotze-Campen et al. 2008) and an integrated assessment model (ReMIND-R, Leimbach et al. 2010) to study climate change impacts and economic damages in the agricultural sector. First, the dynamic global vegetation and hydrology model LPJmL is used to derive climate change impacts on crop yields for wheat, maize, soy, rice and other major crops. A range of different climate projections is used, taken from the dataset provided by the Intersectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP, www.isi-mip.org), which bias-corrected the latest CMIP5 climate data (Taylor et al. 2011). Crop yield impacts cover scenarios with and without CO2 fertilization as well as different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and different GCMs. With increasing temperature towards the end of the century yields generally decrease in tropical and subtropical regions, while they tend to benefit in higher latitudes. LPJmL results have been compared to other global crop models in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP, www.agmip.org). Second, changes in crop yields are analysed with the spatially explicit agro-economic model MAgPIE, which covers their interaction with economic development and changes in food demand. Changes in prices as well as welfare changes of producer and consumer surplus are taken as economic indicators. Due to climate-change related reductions in

  2. Model of environmental life cycle assessment for coal mining operations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burchart-Korol, Dorota, E-mail: dburchart@gig.eu; Fugiel, Agata, E-mail: afugiel@gig.eu; Czaplicka-Kolarz, Krystyna, E-mail: kczaplicka@gig.eu; Turek, Marian, E-mail: mturek@gig.eu

    2016-08-15

    This paper presents a novel approach to environmental assessment of coal mining operations, which enables assessment of the factors that are both directly and indirectly affecting the environment and are associated with the production of raw materials and energy used in processes. The primary novelty of the paper is the development of a computational environmental life cycle assessment (LCA) model for coal mining operations and the application of the model for coal mining operations in Poland. The LCA model enables the assessment of environmental indicators for all identified unit processes in hard coal mines with the life cycle approach. The proposed model enables the assessment of greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) based on the IPCC method and the assessment of damage categories, such as human health, ecosystems and resources based on the ReCiPe method. The model enables the assessment of GHGs for hard coal mining operations in three time frames: 20, 100 and 500 years. The model was used to evaluate the coal mines in Poland. It was demonstrated that the largest environmental impacts in damage categories were associated with the use of fossil fuels, methane emissions and the use of electricity, processing of wastes, heat, and steel supports. It was concluded that an environmental assessment of coal mining operations, apart from direct influence from processing waste, methane emissions and drainage water, should include the use of electricity, heat and steel, particularly for steel supports. Because the model allows the comparison of environmental impact assessment for various unit processes, it can be used for all hard coal mines, not only in Poland but also in the world. This development is an important step forward in the study of the impacts of fossil fuels on the environment with the potential to mitigate the impact of the coal industry on the environment. - Highlights: • A computational LCA model for assessment of coal mining operations • Identification of

  3. Model of environmental life cycle assessment for coal mining operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burchart-Korol, Dorota; Fugiel, Agata; Czaplicka-Kolarz, Krystyna; Turek, Marian

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents a novel approach to environmental assessment of coal mining operations, which enables assessment of the factors that are both directly and indirectly affecting the environment and are associated with the production of raw materials and energy used in processes. The primary novelty of the paper is the development of a computational environmental life cycle assessment (LCA) model for coal mining operations and the application of the model for coal mining operations in Poland. The LCA model enables the assessment of environmental indicators for all identified unit processes in hard coal mines with the life cycle approach. The proposed model enables the assessment of greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) based on the IPCC method and the assessment of damage categories, such as human health, ecosystems and resources based on the ReCiPe method. The model enables the assessment of GHGs for hard coal mining operations in three time frames: 20, 100 and 500 years. The model was used to evaluate the coal mines in Poland. It was demonstrated that the largest environmental impacts in damage categories were associated with the use of fossil fuels, methane emissions and the use of electricity, processing of wastes, heat, and steel supports. It was concluded that an environmental assessment of coal mining operations, apart from direct influence from processing waste, methane emissions and drainage water, should include the use of electricity, heat and steel, particularly for steel supports. Because the model allows the comparison of environmental impact assessment for various unit processes, it can be used for all hard coal mines, not only in Poland but also in the world. This development is an important step forward in the study of the impacts of fossil fuels on the environment with the potential to mitigate the impact of the coal industry on the environment. - Highlights: • A computational LCA model for assessment of coal mining operations • Identification of

  4. Evaluating confidence in the impact of regulatory nutrient reduction and assessing the competing impact of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irby, I.; Friedrichs, M. A. M.

    2017-12-01

    Human impacts on the Chesapeake Bay through increased nutrient run-off as a result of land-use change, urbanization, and industrialization, have resulted in a degradation of water quality over the last half-century. These direct impacts, compounded with human-induced climate changes such as warming, rising sea level, and changes in precipitation, have elevated the conversation surrounding the future of the Bay's water quality. As a result, in 2010, a Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) was established for the Chesapeake Bay that limited nutrient and sediment input in an effort to increase dissolved oxygen. This research utilizes a multiple model approach to evaluate confidence in the estuarine water quality modeling portion of the TMDL. One of the models is then used to assess the potential impact climate change may have on the success of currently mandated nutrient reduction levels in 2050. Results demonstrate that although the models examined differ structurally and in biogeochemical complexity, they project a similar attainment of regulatory water quality standards after nutrient reduction, while also establishing that meeting water quality standards is relatively independent of hydrologic conditions. By developing a Confidence Index, this research identifies the locations and causes of greatest uncertainty in modeled projections of water quality. Although there are specific locations and times where the models disagree, this research lends an increased degree of confidence in the appropriateness of the TMDL levels and in the general impact nutrient reductions will have on Chesapeake Bay water quality under current environmental conditions. However, when examining the potential impacts of climate change, this research shows that the combined impacts of increasing temperature, sea level, and river flow negatively affect dissolved oxygen throughout the Chesapeake Bay and impact progress towards meeting the water quality standards associated with the TMDL with

  5. High-resolution modelling of health impacts from air pollution using the integrated model system EVA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brandt, Jørgen; Andersen, Mikael S.; Bønløkke, Jakob; Christensen, Jesper H.; Geels, Camilla; Hansen, Kaj M.; Jensen, Steen S.; Ketzel, Matthias; Plejdrup, Marlene S.; Sigsgaard, Torben; Silver, Jeremy D.

    2014-05-01

    A high-resolution assessment of health impacts from air pollution and related external cost has been conducted for Denmark using the integrated EVA model system. The EVA system has been further developed by implementing an air quality model with a 1 km x 1 km resolution covering the whole of Denmark. New developments of the integrated model system will be presented as well as results for health impacts and related external costs over several decades. Furthermore, the sensitivity of health impacts to model resolution will be studied. We have developed an integrated model system EVA (Economic Valuation of Air pollution), based on the impact-pathway chain, to assess the health impacts and health-related economic externalities of air pollution resulting from specific emission sources or sectors. The system is used to support policymaking with respect to emission control. In Brandt et al. (2013a; 2013b), the EVA system was used to assess the impacts in Europe and Denmark from the past, present and future total air pollution levels as well as the contribution from the major anthropogenic emission sectors. The EVA system was applied using the hemispheric chemistry-transport model, the Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM), with nesting capability for higher resolution over Europe (50 km x 50 km) and Northern Europe (16.7 km x 16.7 km). In this study an Urban Background Model (UBM) has been further developed to cover the whole of Denmark with a 1 km x 1 km resolution and the model has been implemented as a part of the integrated model system, EVA. The EVA system is based on the impact-pathway methodology. The site-specific emissions will result (via atmospheric transport and chemistry) in a concentration distribution, which together with detailed population data, are used to estimate the population-level exposure. Using exposure-response functions and economic valuations, the exposure is transformed into impacts on human health and related external costs. In this study

  6. Analysis of methods and models for assessing the direct and indirect economic impacts of CO/sub 2/-induced environmental changes in the agricultural sector of the US economy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Callaway, J.M.; Cronin, F.J.; Currie, J.W.; Tawil, J.

    1982-08-01

    The overall purpose of this research was to assist the US Department of Energy (DOE) in developing methods for assessing the direct and indirect economic impacts due to the effects of increases in the ambient concentration of CO/sub 2/ on agricultural production. First, a comprehensive literature search was undertaken to determine what types of models and methods have been developed, which could be effectively used to conduct assessments of the direct and indirect economic impacts of CO/sub 2/ buildup. Specific attention was focused upon models and methods for assessing the physical impacts of CO/sub 2/-induced environmental changes on crop yields; national and multi-regional agricultural sector models; and macroeconomic models of the US economy. The second task involved a thorough investigation of the research efforts being conducted by other public and private sector organizations in order to determine how more recent analytical methods being developed outside of DOE could be effectively integrated into a more comprehensive analysis of the direct economic impacts of CO/sub 2/ buildup. The third and final task involved synthesizing the information gathered in the first two tasks into a systematic framework for assessing the direct and indirect economic impacts of CO/sub 2/-induced environmental changes originating in the agricultural sector of the US economy. It is concluded that the direct economic impacts of CO/sub 2/ on the agricultural sector and the indirect economic impacts caused by spillover effects from agriculture to other sectors of the economy will be pervasive; however, the direction and magnitude of these impacts on producers and consumers cannot be determined a priori.

  7. Climate change impact assessment on Veneto and Friuli plain groundwater. Part I: An integrated modeling approach for hazard scenario construction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baruffi, F.; Cisotto, A.; Cimolino, A.; Ferri, M.; Monego, M.; Norbiato, D.; Cappelletto, M.; Bisaglia, M.; Pretner, A.; Galli, A.; Scarinci, A.; Marsala, V.; Panelli, C.; Gualdi, S.; Bucchignani, E.; Torresan, S.; Pasini, S.; Critto, A.

    2012-01-01

    Climate change impacts on water resources, particularly groundwater, is a highly debated topic worldwide, triggering international attention and interest from both researchers and policy makers due to its relevant link with European water policy directives (e.g. 2000/60/EC and 2007/118/EC) and related environmental objectives. The understanding of long-term impacts of climate variability and change is therefore a key challenge in order to address effective protection measures and to implement sustainable management of water resources. This paper presents the modeling approach adopted within the Life + project TRUST (Tool for Regional-scale assessment of groUndwater Storage improvement in adaptation to climaTe change) in order to provide climate change hazard scenarios for the shallow groundwater of high Veneto and Friuli Plain, Northern Italy. Given the aim to evaluate potential impacts on water quantity and quality (e.g. groundwater level variation, decrease of water availability for irrigation, variations of nitrate infiltration processes), the modeling approach integrated an ensemble of climate, hydrologic and hydrogeologic models running from the global to the regional scale. Global and regional climate models and downscaling techniques were used to make climate simulations for the reference period 1961–1990 and the projection period 2010–2100. The simulation of the recent climate was performed using observed radiative forcings, whereas the projections have been done prescribing the radiative forcings according to the IPCC A1B emission scenario. The climate simulations and the downscaling, then, provided the precipitation, temperatures and evapo-transpiration fields used for the impact analysis. Based on downscaled climate projections, 3 reference scenarios for the period 2071–2100 (i.e. the driest, the wettest and the mild year) were selected and used to run a regional geomorphoclimatic and hydrogeological model. The final output of the model ensemble

  8. Climate change impact assessment on Veneto and Friuli plain groundwater. Part I: An integrated modeling approach for hazard scenario construction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baruffi, F. [Autorita di Bacino dei Fiumi dell' Alto Adriatico, Cannaregio 4314, 30121 Venice (Italy); Cisotto, A., E-mail: segreteria@adbve.it [Autorita di Bacino dei Fiumi dell' Alto Adriatico, Cannaregio 4314, 30121 Venice (Italy); Cimolino, A.; Ferri, M.; Monego, M.; Norbiato, D.; Cappelletto, M.; Bisaglia, M. [Autorita di Bacino dei Fiumi dell' Alto Adriatico, Cannaregio 4314, 30121 Venice (Italy); Pretner, A.; Galli, A. [SGI Studio Galli Ingegneria, via della Provvidenza 13, 35030 Sarmeola di Rubano (PD) (Italy); Scarinci, A., E-mail: andrea.scarinci@sgi-spa.it [SGI Studio Galli Ingegneria, via della Provvidenza 13, 35030 Sarmeola di Rubano (PD) (Italy); Marsala, V.; Panelli, C. [SGI Studio Galli Ingegneria, via della Provvidenza 13, 35030 Sarmeola di Rubano (PD) (Italy); Gualdi, S., E-mail: silvio.gualdi@bo.ingv.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Bucchignani, E., E-mail: e.bucchignani@cira.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Torresan, S., E-mail: torresan@cmcc.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Pasini, S., E-mail: sara.pasini@stud.unive.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca' Foscari Venice, Calle Larga S. Marta 2137, 30123 Venice (Italy); Critto, A., E-mail: critto@unive.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca' Foscari Venice, Calle Larga S. Marta 2137, 30123 Venice (Italy); and others

    2012-12-01

    Climate change impacts on water resources, particularly groundwater, is a highly debated topic worldwide, triggering international attention and interest from both researchers and policy makers due to its relevant link with European water policy directives (e.g. 2000/60/EC and 2007/118/EC) and related environmental objectives. The understanding of long-term impacts of climate variability and change is therefore a key challenge in order to address effective protection measures and to implement sustainable management of water resources. This paper presents the modeling approach adopted within the Life + project TRUST (Tool for Regional-scale assessment of groUndwater Storage improvement in adaptation to climaTe change) in order to provide climate change hazard scenarios for the shallow groundwater of high Veneto and Friuli Plain, Northern Italy. Given the aim to evaluate potential impacts on water quantity and quality (e.g. groundwater level variation, decrease of water availability for irrigation, variations of nitrate infiltration processes), the modeling approach integrated an ensemble of climate, hydrologic and hydrogeologic models running from the global to the regional scale. Global and regional climate models and downscaling techniques were used to make climate simulations for the reference period 1961-1990 and the projection period 2010-2100. The simulation of the recent climate was performed using observed radiative forcings, whereas the projections have been done prescribing the radiative forcings according to the IPCC A1B emission scenario. The climate simulations and the downscaling, then, provided the precipitation, temperatures and evapo-transpiration fields used for the impact analysis. Based on downscaled climate projections, 3 reference scenarios for the period 2071-2100 (i.e. the driest, the wettest and the mild year) were selected and used to run a regional geomorphoclimatic and hydrogeological model. The final output of the model ensemble produced

  9. Assessing the Impact of Imperfect Diagnosis on Service Reliability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grønbæk, Lars Jesper; Schwefel, Hans-Peter; Kjærgaard, Jens Kristian

    2010-01-01

    , representative diagnosis performance metrics have been defined and their closed-form solutions obtained for the Markov model. These equations enable model parameterization from traces of implemented diagnosis components. The diagnosis model has been integrated in a reliability model assessing the impact...... of the diagnosis functions for the studied reliability problem. In a simulation study we finally analyze trade-off properties of diagnosis heuristics from literature, map them to the analytic Markov model, and investigate its suitability for service reliability optimization....

  10. Representative Agricultural Pathways: A Trans-Disciplinary Approach to Agricultural Model Inter-comparison, Improvement, Climate Impact Assessment and Stakeholder Engagement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antle, J. M.; Valdivia, R. O.; Claessens, L.; Nelson, G. C.; Rosenzweig, C.; Ruane, A. C.; Vervoort, J.

    2013-12-01

    The global change research community has recognized that new pathway and scenario concepts are needed to implement impact and vulnerability assessment that is logically consistent across local, regional and global scales. For impact and vulnerability assessment, new socio-economic pathway and scenario concepts are being developed. Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs) are designed to extend global pathways to provide the detail needed for global and regional assessment of agricultural systems. In addition, research by the Agricultural Model Inter-comparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) shows that RAPs provide a powerful way to engage stakeholders in climate-related research throughout the research process and in communication of research results. RAPs are based on the integrated assessment framework developed by AgMIP. This framework shows that both bio-physical and socio-economic drivers are essential components of agricultural pathways and logically precede the definition of adaptation and mitigation scenarios that embody associated capabilities and challenges. This approach is based on a trans-disciplinary process for designing pathways and then translating them into parameter sets for bio-physical and economic models that are components of agricultural integrated assessments of climate impact, adaptation and mitigation. RAPs must be designed to be part of a logically consistent set of drivers and outcomes from global to regional and local. Global RAPs are designed to be consistent with higher-level global socio-economic pathways, but add key agricultural drivers such as agricultural growth trends that are not specified in more general pathways, as illustrated in a recent inter-comparison of global agricultural models. To create pathways at regional or local scales, further detail is needed. At this level, teams of scientists and other experts with knowledge of the agricultural systems and regions work together through a step-wise process. Experiences

  11. Environmental impact assessment screening tool

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-05-01

    An environmental assessment and impact planning software, SCREENER, was tested at a pilot project at the Cameco site (Port Hope). SCREENER was used to screen the impacts of a new construction project in accordance with the process and reporting requirements laid out in the Canadian Environmental Assessment Act. The software test concentrated on the activities that are directly involved with the structure construction and site preparation activities. In addition, a two and one half day training course was given to three AECB staff using the test case as a hands on example. The conclusion of this project is that an automated tool such as SCREENER (or Calyx, the new generation of environmental assessment tools from ESSA Software Ltd.), will help the AECB to standardize the approach to environmental assessment, assist in project planning, and save resources in the screening process. The new approach could allow to allocate AECB limited resources to the detailed assessments required for maximum impact activities. 2 figs. 7 refs.

  12. Environmental impact assessment screening tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-05-01

    An environmental assessment and impact planning software, SCREENER, was tested at a pilot project at the Cameco site (Port Hope). SCREENER was used to screen the impacts of a new construction project in accordance with the process and reporting requirements laid out in the Canadian Environmental Assessment Act. The software test concentrated on the activities that are directly involved with the structure construction and site preparation activities. In addition, a two and one half day training course was given to three AECB staff using the test case as a hands on example. The conclusion of this project is that an automated tool such as SCREENER (or Calyx, the new generation of environmental assessment tools from ESSA Software Ltd.), will help the AECB to standardize the approach to environmental assessment, assist in project planning, and save resources in the screening process. The new approach could allow to allocate AECB limited resources to the detailed assessments required for maximum impact activities

  13. Encouraging translation and assessing impact of the Centre for Research Excellence in Integrated Quality Improvement: rationale and protocol for a research impact assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramanathan, Shanthi; Reeves, Penny; Deeming, Simon; Bailie, Ross Stewart; Bailie, Jodie; Bainbridge, Roxanne; Cunningham, Frances; Doran, Christopher; McPhail Bell, Karen; Searles, Andrew

    2017-01-01

    Introduction There is growing recognition among health researchers and funders that the wider benefits of research such as economic, social and health impacts ought to be assessed and valued alongside academic outputs such as peer-reviewed papers. Research translation needs to increase and the pathways to impact ought to be more transparent. These processes are particularly pertinent to the Indigenous health sector given continued concerns that Indigenous communities are over-researched with little corresponding improvement in health outcomes. This paper describes the research protocol of a mixed methods study to apply FAIT (Framework to Assess the Impact from Translational health research) to the Centre for Research Excellence in Integrated Quality Improvement (CRE-IQI). FAIT will be applied to five selected CRE-IQI Flagship projects to encourage research translation and assess the wider impact of that research. Methods and analysis Phase I will develop a modified programme logic model for each Flagship project including identifying process, output and impact metrics so progress can be monitored. A scoping review will inform potential benefits. In phase II, programme logic models will be updated to account for changes in the research pathways over time. Audit and feedback will be used to encourage research translation and collect evidence of achievement of any process, output and interim impacts. In phase III, three proven methodologies for measuring research impact—Payback, economic assessment and narratives—will be applied. Data on the application of FAIT will be collected and analysed to inform and improve FAIT’s performance. Ethics and dissemination This study is funded by a nationally competitive grant (ID 1078927) from the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council. Ethics approval was obtained from the University of Newcastle’s Human Research Ethics Committee (ID: H-2017–0026). The results from the study will be presented in several

  14. Impact assessment of ionising radiation on wildlife

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Copplestone, D.; Bielby, S.; Jones, S.

    2001-01-01

    This R and D project was commissioned by the Environment Agency and English Nature in January 2001 to provide up-to-date information on the impacts of ionising radiation on wildlife, upon which a robust assessment approach may be developed. This approach will also feed into the European Commission funded project 'Framework for Assessment of Environmental Impact' (FASSET), due to complete in October 2003. This report describes the behaviour and transport of radionuclides in the environment, considers the impact of ionising radiation on wildlife, and makes recommendations on an approach for the impact assessment of ionising radiation on wildlife for England and Wales. The assessment approach focuses on three ecosystems representative of those considered potentially most at risk from the impact of authorised radioactive discharges, namely a coastal grassland (terrestrial ecosystem); estuarine and freshwater ecosystems. The likely scale of the impact on wildlife is also assessed in light of a preliminary analysis based on this assessment approach. The aims of the report are: to summarise the latest research on the behaviour, transfer and impact of ionising radiation effects on wildlife; an outline and review of the relevant European and national legislation which has impacts on the requirements for assessments of the impact of ionising radiation on wildlife in the UK; to consider the role of regulatory bodies in assessing the impact of ionising radiation on wildlife with respect to England and Wales; to make recommendations on the relative biological effectiveness of different types of radiation with respect to wildlife; and to recommend an approach to assess the impacts to wildlife from ionising radiation from authorised discharges in England and Wales, with spreadsheets to support the methodology. The report demonstrates the behaviour and transfer of radionuclides in a number of different ecosystem types. Particular emphasis is placed on exposure pathways in those

  15. Impact assessment: Eroding benefits through streamlining?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bond, Alan, E-mail: alan.bond@uea.ac.uk [School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia (United Kingdom); School of Geo and Spatial Sciences, North-West University (South Africa); Pope, Jenny, E-mail: jenny@integral-sustainability.net [Integral Sustainability (Australia); Curtin University Sustainability Policy Institute (Australia); Morrison-Saunders, Angus, E-mail: A.Morrison-Saunders@murdoch.edu.au [School of Geo and Spatial Sciences, North-West University (South Africa); Environmental Science, Murdoch University (Australia); Retief, Francois, E-mail: francois.retief@nwu.ac.za [School of Geo and Spatial Sciences, North-West University (South Africa); Gunn, Jill A.E., E-mail: jill.gunn@usask.ca [Department of Geography and Planning and School of Environment and Sustainability, University of Saskatchewan (Canada)

    2014-02-15

    This paper argues that Governments have sought to streamline impact assessment in recent years (defined as the last five years) to counter concerns over the costs and potential for delays to economic development. We hypothesise that this has had some adverse consequences on the benefits that subsequently accrue from the assessments. This hypothesis is tested using a framework developed from arguments for the benefits brought by Environmental Impact Assessment made in 1982 in the face of the UK Government opposition to its implementation in a time of economic recession. The particular benefits investigated are ‘consistency and fairness’, ‘early warning’, ‘environment and development’, and ‘public involvement’. Canada, South Africa, the United Kingdom and Western Australia are the jurisdictions tested using this framework. The conclusions indicate that significant streamlining has been undertaken which has had direct adverse effects on some of the benefits that impact assessment should deliver, particularly in Canada and the UK. The research has not examined whether streamlining has had implications for the effectiveness of impact assessment, but the causal link between streamlining and benefits does sound warning bells that merit further investigation. -- Highlights: • Investigation of the extent to which government has streamlined IA. • Evaluation framework was developed based on benefits of impact assessment. • Canada, South Africa, the United Kingdom, and Western Australia were examined. • Trajectory in last five years is attrition of benefits of impact assessment.

  16. Impact assessment: Eroding benefits through streamlining?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bond, Alan; Pope, Jenny; Morrison-Saunders, Angus; Retief, Francois; Gunn, Jill A.E.

    2014-01-01

    This paper argues that Governments have sought to streamline impact assessment in recent years (defined as the last five years) to counter concerns over the costs and potential for delays to economic development. We hypothesise that this has had some adverse consequences on the benefits that subsequently accrue from the assessments. This hypothesis is tested using a framework developed from arguments for the benefits brought by Environmental Impact Assessment made in 1982 in the face of the UK Government opposition to its implementation in a time of economic recession. The particular benefits investigated are ‘consistency and fairness’, ‘early warning’, ‘environment and development’, and ‘public involvement’. Canada, South Africa, the United Kingdom and Western Australia are the jurisdictions tested using this framework. The conclusions indicate that significant streamlining has been undertaken which has had direct adverse effects on some of the benefits that impact assessment should deliver, particularly in Canada and the UK. The research has not examined whether streamlining has had implications for the effectiveness of impact assessment, but the causal link between streamlining and benefits does sound warning bells that merit further investigation. -- Highlights: • Investigation of the extent to which government has streamlined IA. • Evaluation framework was developed based on benefits of impact assessment. • Canada, South Africa, the United Kingdom, and Western Australia were examined. • Trajectory in last five years is attrition of benefits of impact assessment

  17. Developing a Model to Assess the Potential Impact of TUM Hydropower Turbines on Small River Ecology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weiwei Yao

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Small hydropower is a renewable energy technology that is used for electricity generation worldwide, but still has potential for further development. However, during the installation of small hydropower, the ecological impacts of the power plants need to be thoroughly investigated. In addressing the challenges of energy production and minimizing the environmental impacts of small hydropower installation and operation, this study has applied an ecohydraulic model to investigate river hydrodynamics, hydromorphology, habitat, and the population impacts of small hydropower, and presented the Mum River as a case study. Two scenarios were implemented in this research to simulate the hydrodynamic, sedimentation, habitat, and population status in order to assess the potential effects caused by the TUM plant. At the Mum River, two scenarios were proposed: the TUM plant was not considered in scenario S1, but was considered in scenario S2. The model results for scenario S2 indicated that the habitat was suitable for fish species living in the Mum River, with fish population numbers between 4.6 × 103 and 6.6 × 103. The S2 results indicated that the impacts of the TUM plant were negligible when compared with S1. Although the impact of the TUM plant on the Mum River is relatively large when the discharge is high (19 m3/s, calculations based on stable flow shows that the TUM plant could function well on the river ecosystem when the discharge is low or at normal rates. Therefore, this study shows that the TUM plant would be a good option to meet the needs of energy generation whilst having a minimal impact on river habitats and changes in fish species population in similar small rivers and streams.

  18. Is Environmental Impact Assessment fulfilling its potential?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Sanne Vammen

    2014-01-01

    fuel with CO2-neutral energy sources. A variety of these projects are subject to environmental impact assessment (EIA), which raises the following questions: What role does an impact assessment play? When is the project environmentally friendly? How are climate change-related impacts assessed......One of the topics receiving much attention in recent years is climate change and the potential of its integration in impact assessment, both in terms of achieving mitigation and adaptation. Renewable energy projects are part of the efforts to mitigate climate change, replacing the use of fossil...... adaptation is absent. Also, the results show an emphasis on positive impacts in the reports, and in a few cases discussions of enhancements. Identification and assessment of negative climate change impacts are less apparent. This leads to a discussion of the results in the light of the purpose of EIA....

  19. Framework for assessment of environmental impact (Fasset)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Larsson, C.M.

    2002-01-01

    The overall aim of the FASSET project is to develop a framework within which assessment models, relevant to the impact of ionising radiation on the environment, can be applied and results analysed for European ecosystems. Complete documentation on the FASSET project can be found on the FASSET's web-site (www.fasset.org). This paper describes the current state of the project, based on the project's first Annual Report. Seven European ecosystems are considered; four terrestrial (natural forests, semi-natural pastures, agricultural ecosystems and wetlands) and three aquatic (marine, brackish and freshwater). In FASSET Deliverable 1 a list of candidate generic reference organisms has been drawn up on the basis of expert judgement of exposure situations in the selected ecosystems. They serve as a starting points for development of dosimetric models, and for pooling available information on ecological relevance and biological effects. Further analysis of the candidate reference organisms is performed to justify their choice and assess their applicability in different situations, taking into account modelling of radionuclide transfer, estimates of internal and external dose rates, ecological significance and biological effects. Four general 'umbrella' radiation effects on biota are considered that, when manifested in an individual, may have an impact at population level or at higher levels of the organisational hierarchy. The four 'umbrellas' are: morbidity (fitness or well-being), mortality (death directly attributable to radiation), reproductive success (changed number of offspring) and scorable cytogenetic effects (molecular actions, aberrations). A database is being assembled, compiling dose and dose rates data from the literature for a number of organism categories for each of these four umbrella effects. The database also considers the suitability of data to derive the relative biological efficiency (RBE) for different types of radiation. The work from the three

  20. Assessing the impact of aviation on climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karen Marais

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available We present an assessment of the marginal climate impacts of new aviation activities. We use impulse response functions derived from carbon-cycle and atmospheric models to estimate changes in surface temperature for various aviation impacts (CO2, NOx on methane, NOx on ozone, sulfates, soot, and contrails/induced cirrus. We use different damage functions and discount rates to explore health, welfare and ecological costs for a range of assumptions and scenarios. Since uncertainty is high regarding many aviation effects, we explicitly capture some uncertainty by representing several model parameters as probabilistic distributions. The uncertainties are then propagated using Monte Carlo analysis to derive estimates for the impact of these uncertainties on the marginal future climate impacts. Our goal is to provide a framework that will communicate the potential impacts of aviation on climate change under different scenarios and assumptions, and that will allow decision-makers to compare these potential impacts to other aviation environmental impacts. We present results to describe the influence of parametric uncertainties, scenarios, and assumptions for valuation on the expected marginal future costs of aviation impacts. Estimates of the change in global average surface temperature due to aviation are most sensitive to changes in climate sensitivity, the radiative forcing attributed to short-lived effects (in particular those related to contrails and aviation-induced cirrus, and the choice of emissions scenario. Estimates of marginal future costs of aviation are most sensitive to assumptions regarding the discount rate, followed by assumptions regarding climate sensitivity, and the choice of emissions scenario.

  1. Selection of a representative subset of global climate models that captures the profile of regional changes for integrated climate impacts assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alex C. Ruane

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract We present the Representative Temperature and Precipitation (T&P GCM Subsetting Approach developed within the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP to select a practical subset of global climate models (GCMs for regional integrated assessment of climate impacts when resource limitations do not permit the full ensemble of GCMs to be evaluated given the need to also focus on impacts sector and economics models. Subsetting inherently leads to a loss of information but can free up resources to explore important uncertainties in the integrated assessment that would otherwise be prohibitive. The Representative T&P GCM Subsetting Approach identifies five individual GCMs that capture a profile of the full ensemble of temperature and precipitation change within the growing season while maintaining information about the probability that basic classes of climate changes (relatively cool/wet, cool/dry, middle, hot/wet, and hot/dry are projected in the full GCM ensemble. We demonstrate the selection methodology for maize impacts in Ames, Iowa, and discuss limitations and situations when additional information may be required to select representative GCMs. We then classify 29 GCMs over all land areas to identify regions and seasons with characteristic diagonal skewness related to surface moisture as well as extreme skewness connected to snow-albedo feedbacks and GCM uncertainty. Finally, we employ this basic approach to recognize that GCM projections demonstrate coherence across space, time, and greenhouse gas concentration pathway. The Representative T&P GCM Subsetting Approach provides a quantitative basis for the determination of useful GCM subsets, provides a practical and coherent approach where previous assessments selected solely on availability of scenarios, and may be extended for application to a range of scales and sectoral impacts.

  2. Proposing an approach for the assessment of environmental impacts of offshore wind farms in Europe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luedeke, Jens

    2011-07-01

    Full text: Analyses of numerous EIS and EIA in the chosen countries, which have been worked out by the authors, have documented that the assessments failed to standardize both the prognosis and the assessment method. The assessment and the relevance of the manifold provided data tends to remain vague and can only hardly been used by the authorizing bodies. Thus, decision makers need an appropriate, transparent and comparable decision-making 'portfolio' to provide at best bullet-proofed EIA documents, based on a systematic analysis of research results, baseline surveys and a prognosis of the expected impacts. A satisfactory state of research or good practice for the assessment of the environmental impacts, which also enables comparability and cumulative considerations of the impacts of offshore wind farms in an international context, should be reached. A transparent evaluation approach of data for the analysis of the relevant issues therefore was essential. Carrying this in mind the Technische Universitaet Berlin developed proposals for semi-quantitative assessment models for migratory birds, sea and resting birds and harbour porpoises that, if used within the EIA, could provide the permit requirements more transparent with relevant data and assessments to the necessary decision-making basics. Because of the differences of impact correlations between the diverse natural assets and the offshore wind farms, individual models have been developed for several impact correlations, which have been identified as especially significant for the real decision making process. The numerous influencing factors of each impact therefore have been compiled. With the elaborated models these factors are linked systematically. The obtained data can be used for a comparison with the social given objectives (in form of legal thresholds). Therefore the presented models have to be established inside the EIS as well as in the approval system. So it could bring advantages in the

  3. Combining catchment and instream modelling to assess physical habitat quality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Martin

    Study objectives After the implementation of EU's Water Framework Directive (WFD) in Denmark ecological impacts from groundwater exploitation on surface waters has to receive additional consideration. Small streams in particular are susceptible to changes in run-off but have only recieved little...... attention in past studies of run-off impact on the quality of stream physical habitats. This study combined catchment and instream models with instream habitat observations to assess the ecological impacts from groundwater exploitation on a small stream. The main objectives of this study was; • to assess...... which factors are controlling the run-off conditions in stream Ledreborg and to what degree • to assess the run-off reference condition of stream Ledreborg where intensive groundwater abstraction has taken place in 67 years using a simple rainfall-run-off-model • to assess how stream run-off affect...

  4. Assessing flood risk at the global scale: model setup, results, and sensitivity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ward, Philip J; Jongman, Brenden; Weiland, Frederiek Sperna; Winsemius, Hessel C; Bouwman, Arno; Ligtvoet, Willem; Van Beek, Rens; Bierkens, Marc F P

    2013-01-01

    Globally, economic losses from flooding exceeded $19 billion in 2012, and are rising rapidly. Hence, there is an increasing need for global-scale flood risk assessments, also within the context of integrated global assessments. We have developed and validated a model cascade for producing global flood risk maps, based on numerous flood return-periods. Validation results indicate that the model simulates interannual fluctuations in flood impacts well. The cascade involves: hydrological and hydraulic modelling; extreme value statistics; inundation modelling; flood impact modelling; and estimating annual expected impacts. The initial results estimate global impacts for several indicators, for example annual expected exposed population (169 million); and annual expected exposed GDP ($1383 billion). These results are relatively insensitive to the extreme value distribution employed to estimate low frequency flood volumes. However, they are extremely sensitive to the assumed flood protection standard; developing a database of such standards should be a research priority. Also, results are sensitive to the use of two different climate forcing datasets. The impact model can easily accommodate new, user-defined, impact indicators. We envisage several applications, for example: identifying risk hotspots; calculating macro-scale risk for the insurance industry and large companies; and assessing potential benefits (and costs) of adaptation measures. (letter)

  5. Practitioners, professional cultures, and perceptions of impact assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morgan, Richard K.; Hart, Andrew; Freeman, Claire; Coutts, Brian; Colwill, David; Hughes, Andrew

    2012-01-01

    The very nature of impact assessment (IA) means that it often involves practitioners from a very wide range of disciplinary and professional backgrounds, which open the possibility that how IA is perceived and practised may vary according to the professional background of the practitioner. The purpose of this study is to investigate the extent to which a practitioner's professional background influences their perceptions of the adequacy of impact assessment in New Zealand under the Resource Management Act (RMA). Information gathered concerned professional affiliations, training, understanding of impact assessment practise, and perceptions of adequacy in relation to impact assessment. The results showed a dominance of a legalistic, operational perspective of impact assessment under the Resource Management Act, across all the main professions represented in the study. However, among preparers of impact assessments there was clear evidence of differences between the four main professional groups – surveyors, planners, engineers and natural scientists – in the way they see the nature and purpose of impact assessment, the practical steps involved, and what constitutes adequacy. Similarly, impact assessment reviewers – predominantly planners and lawyers – showed variations in their expectations of impact assessment depending on their respective professional affiliation. Although in many cases the differences seem to be more of a matter of emphasis, rather than major disputes on what constitutes a good process, even those differences can add up to rather distinct professional cultures of impact assessment. The following factors are seen as leading to the emergence of such professional cultures: different professions often contribute in different ways to an impact assessment, affecting their perception of the nature and purpose of the process; impact assessment training will usually be a secondary concern, compared with the core professional training, which will be

  6. THE MODEL FOR RISK ASSESSMENT ERP-SYSTEMS INFORMATION SECURITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. S. Oladko

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the problem assessment of information security risks in the ERP-system. ERP-system functions and architecture are studied. The model malicious impacts on levels of ERP-system architecture are composed. Model-based risk assessment, which is the quantitative and qualitative approach to risk assessment, built on the partial unification 3 methods for studying the risks of information security - security models with full overlapping technique CRAMM and FRAP techniques developed.

  7. Social Impact Assessment : Guidance for assessing and managing the social impacts of projects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vanclay, Francis; Esteves, Ana Maria; Aucamp, Ilse; Franks, Daniel

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this Guidance Note is to provide advice to various stakeholders about what is expected in good practice social impact assessment (SIA) and social impact management processes, especially in relation to project development. Project development refers to dams, mines, oil and gas

  8. Model collaboration for the improved assessment of biomass supply, demand, and impacts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wicke, Birka; van der Hilst, Floortje; Daioglou, Vasileios; Banse, Martin; Beringer, Tim; Gerssen - Gondelach, Sarah; Heijnen, Sanne; Karssenberg, Derek; Laborde, David; Lippe, Melvin; van Meijl, Hans; Nassar, André; Powell, Jeff; Prins, Anne Gerdien; Rose, Steve N K; Smeets, Edward M W; Stehfest, Elke; Tyner, Wallace E.; Verstegen, Judith A.; Valin, Hugo; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Yeh, Sonia; Faaij, André P C

    Existing assessments of biomass supply and demand and their impacts face various types of limitations and uncertainties, partly due to the type of tools and methods applied (e.g., partial representation of sectors, lack of geographical details, and aggregated representation of technologies

  9. Model collaboration for the improved assessment of biomass supply, demand, and impacts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wicke, B.; Hilst, van der F.; Daioglou, V.; Banse, M.; Beringer, T.; Gerssen-Gondelach, S.; Heijnen, S.; Karssenberg, D.; Laborde, D.; Lippe, M.; Meijl, van H.; Nassar, A.; Powell, J.P.; Prins, A.G.; Rose, S.N.K.; Smeets, E.M.W.; Stehfest, E.; Tyner, W.E.; Verstegen, J.A.; Valin, H.; Vuuren, van D.P.; Yeh, S.; Faaij, A.P.C.

    2015-01-01

    Existing assessments of biomass supply and demand and their impacts face various types of limitations and uncertainties, partly due to the type of tools and methods applied (e.g., partial representation of sectors, lack of geographical details, and aggregated representation of technologies

  10. Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming – simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Frieler

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC to provide a special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways. In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the response devised within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP to provide tailored, cross-sectorally consistent impact projections to broaden the scientific basis for the report. The simulation protocol is designed to allow for (1 separation of the impacts of historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from impacts of other drivers such as historical land-use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations; (2 quantification of the impacts of additional warming up to 1.5 °C, including a potential overshoot and long-term impacts up to 2299, and comparison to higher levels of global mean temperature change (based on the low-emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation pathway RCP6.0 with socio-economic conditions fixed at 2005 levels; and (3 assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios while accounting for simultaneous changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle-of-the-road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2, Fricko et al., 2016 and in particular differential bioenergy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to comply with RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. With the aim of providing the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and analysis of cross-sectoral interactions that may dampen or amplify sectoral impacts, the protocol is designed to facilitate consistent impact projections from a range of impact models across

  11. Understanding National Models for Climate Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dave, A.; Weingartner, K.

    2017-12-01

    National-level climate assessments have been produced or are underway in a number of countries. These efforts showcase a variety of approaches to mapping climate impacts onto human and natural systems, and involve a variety of development processes, organizational structures, and intended purposes. This presentation will provide a comparative overview of national `models' for climate assessments worldwide, drawing from a geographically diverse group of nations with varying capacities to conduct such assessments. Using an illustrative sampling of assessment models, the presentation will highlight the range of assessment mandates and requirements that drive this work, methodologies employed, focal areas, and the degree to which international dimensions are included for each nation's assessment. This not only allows the U.S. National Climate Assessment to be better understood within an international context, but provides the user with an entry point into other national climate assessments around the world, enabling a better understanding of the risks and vulnerabilities societies face.

  12. Life Cycle Impact Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rosenbaum, Ralph K.; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky; Boulay, Anne-Marie

    2018-01-01

    This chapter is dedicated to the third phase of an LCA study, the Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) where the life cycle inventory’s information on elementary flows is translated into environmental impact scores. In contrast to the three other LCA phases, LCIA is in practice largely automated...

  13. Modeling In-stream Tidal Energy Extraction and Its Potential Environmental Impacts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Zhaoqing; Wang, Taiping; Copping, Andrea; Geerlofs, Simon H.

    2014-09-30

    In recent years, there has been growing interest in harnessing in-stream tidal energy in response to concerns of increasing energy demand and to mitigate climate change impacts. While many studies have been conducted to assess and map tidal energy resources, efforts for quantifying the associated potential environmental impacts have been limited. This paper presents the development of a tidal turbine module within a three-dimensional unstructured-grid coastal ocean model and its application for assessing the potential environmental impacts associated with tidal energy extraction. The model is used to investigate in-stream tidal energy extraction and associated impacts on estuarine hydrodynamic and biological processes in a tidally dominant estuary. A series of numerical experiments with varying numbers and configurations of turbines installed in an idealized estuary were carried out to assess the changes in the hydrodynamics and biological processes due to tidal energy extraction. Model results indicated that a large number of turbines are required to extract the maximum tidal energy and cause significant reduction of the volume flux. Preliminary model results also indicate that extraction of tidal energy increases vertical mixing and decreases flushing rate in a stratified estuary. The tidal turbine model was applied to simulate tidal energy extraction in Puget Sound, a large fjord-like estuary in the Pacific Northwest coast.

  14. Development in methodologies for modelling of human and ecotoxic impacts in LCA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hauschild, Michael Zwicky; Huijbregts, Mark; Jolliet, Olivier

    2009-01-01

    Under the UNEP-SETAC Life Cycle Initiative there is an aim to develop an internationally backed recommended practice of life cycle impact assessment addressing methodological issues like choice of characterization model and characterization factors. In this context, an international comparison...... was performed of characterization models for toxic impacts from chemicals in life cycle assessment. Six commonly used characterization models were compared and in a sequence of workshops. Crucial fate, exposure and effect aspects were identified for which the models differed in their treatment. The models were....... The USEtox™ model has been used to calculate characterization factors for several thousand substances and is currently under review with the intention that it shall form the basis of the recommendations from the UNEP-SETAC Life Cycle Initiative regarding characterization of toxic impacts in Life Cycle...

  15. Health impact assessment of air pollution using a dynamic exposure profile: Implications for exposure and health impact estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dhondt, Stijn; Beckx, Carolien; Degraeuwe, Bart; Lefebvre, Wouter; Kochan, Bruno; Bellemans, Tom; Int Panis, Luc; Macharis, Cathy; Putman, Koen

    2012-01-01

    In both ambient air pollution epidemiology and health impact assessment an accurate assessment of the population exposure is crucial. Although considerable advances have been made in assessing human exposure outdoors, the assessments often do not consider the impact of individual travel behavior on such exposures. Population-based exposures to NO 2 and O 3 using only home addresses were compared with models that integrate all time-activity patterns—including time in commute—for Flanders and Brussels. The exposure estimates were used to estimate the air pollution impact on years of life lost due to respiratory mortality. Health impact of NO 2 using an exposure that integrates time-activity information was on average 1.2% higher than when assuming that people are always at their home address. For ozone the overall estimated health impact was 0.8% lower. Local differences could be much larger, with estimates that differ up to 12% from the exposure using residential addresses only. Depending on age and gender, deviations from the population average were seen. Our results showed modest differences on a regional level. At the local level, however, time-activity patterns indicated larger differences in exposure and health impact estimates, mainly for people living in more rural areas. These results suggest that for local analyses the dynamic approach can contribute to an improved assessment of the health impact of various types of pollution and to the understanding of exposure differences between population groups. - Highlights: ► Exposure to ambient air pollution was assessed integrating population mobility. ► This dynamic exposure was integrated into a health impact assessment. ► Differences between the dynamic and residential exposure were quantified. ► Modest differences in health impact were found at a regional level. ► At municipal level larger differences were found, influenced by gender and age.

  16. Environmental impact assessments and geological repositories for radioactive waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Sullivan, P.; McKirdy, B.; Askarieh, M.; Bond, A.; Russell, S.

    1999-01-01

    Since 1985 it has been obligatory that facilities in the European Union designed for the permanent storage or disposal of radioactive waste be assessed to determine their effects on the environment. This assessment must be undertaken in advance of any decision by national authorities to give consent for development work to proceed. Member States are given wide discretion on how the above requirements are implemented in practice, e.g. the relevant European Council Directives call for the results of the environmental assessment to be made available to the public before development consent is granted but the detailed arrangements for dissemination of such information and procedures for public consultation are determined by individual Member States. Although the Directives require an assessment of the direct and indirect effects of a project on human beings and on various elements of the natural environment, they are non-specific as to what particular impacts should be addressed, particularly as regards the effects of a project on human beings. Therefore, for example, each Member State may decide whether or not social, health and economic impacts should be included in the assessment. This paper discusses the above issues. It proposes a model approach to environmental impact assessment in the context of geological repositories, including the role of the assessment on the overall decision processes for repository development, the scope and content of the assessment report, and approaches to public involvement

  17. Modeling the impact of large-scale energy conversion systems on global climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, J.

    There are three energy options which could satisfy a projected energy requirement of about 30 TW and these are the solar, nuclear and (to a lesser extent) coal options. Climate models can be used to assess the impact of large scale deployment of these options. The impact of waste heat has been assessed using energy balance models and general circulation models (GCMs). Results suggest that the impacts are significant when the heat imput is very high and studies of more realistic scenarios are required. Energy balance models, radiative-convective models and a GCM have been used to study the impact of doubling the atmospheric CO 2 concentration. State-of-the-art models estimate a surface temperature increase of 1.5-3.0 0 C with large amplification near the poles, but much uncertainty remains. Very few model studies have been made of the impact of particles on global climate, more information on the characteristics of particle input are required. The impact of large-scale deployment of solar energy conversion systems has received little attention but model studies suggest that large scale changes in surface characteristics associated with such systems (surface heat balance, roughness and hydrological characteristics and ocean surface temperature) could have significant global climatic effects. (Auth.)

  18. Biodiversity impact assessment (BIA+) - methodological framework for screening biodiversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winter, Lisa; Pflugmacher, Stephan; Berger, Markus; Finkbeiner, Matthias

    2018-03-01

    For the past 20 years, the life cycle assessment (LCA) community has sought to integrate impacts on biodiversity into the LCA framework. However, existing impact assessment methods still fail to do so comprehensively because they quantify only a few impacts related to specific species and regions. This paper proposes a methodological framework that will allow LCA practitioners to assess currently missing impacts on biodiversity on a global scale. Building on existing models that seek to quantify the impacts of human activities on biodiversity, the herein proposed methodological framework consists of 2 components: a habitat factor for 14 major habitat types and the impact on the biodiversity status in those major habitat types. The habitat factor is calculated by means of indicators that characterize each habitat. The biodiversity status depends on parameters from impact categories. The impact functions, relating these different parameters to a given response in the biodiversity status, rely on expert judgments. To ensure the applicability for LCA practitioners, the components of the framework can be regionalized on a country scale for which LCA inventory data is more readily available. The weighting factors for the 14 major habitat types range from 0.63 to 1.82. By means of area weighting of the major habitat types in a country, country-specific weighting factors are calculated. In order to demonstrate the main part of the framework, examples of impact functions are given for the categories "freshwater eutrophication" and "freshwater ecotoxicity" in 1 major habitat type. The results confirm suitability of the methodological framework. The major advantages are the framework's user-friendliness, given that data can be used from LCA databases directly, and the complete inclusion of all levels of biodiversity (genetic, species, and ecosystem). It is applicable for the whole world and a wide range of impact categories. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2018;14:282-297.

  19. Regional flood impact assessment for Kiel and Eckernförde, Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shustikova, Iuliia; Viavattene, Christophe; Seiß, Guntram

    2017-04-01

    It is well-observed that extreme flood events bring considerable destruction to coastal communities. The estimates of damage increases when direct and indirect losses are both considered in the assessment. This study applied the INtegrated DisRuption Assessment (INDRA) model which is designed to estimate and compare not only tangible but also intangible losses such as risk to life, recovery mechanisms and household displacement. Multi-criteria analysis (MCA) was performed in order to compare hotspots of high flood risk on the regional scale and detect which impact indicators influence results the most. INDRA allowed assessing the following impact indicators: direct damages to buildings and roads, transport disruption, risk to life and financial recovery mechanisms of private households and businesses. The focus was on two hotspots of flood risk, where direct and indirect impacts from 200 years flood were assessed and analyzed in terms of relative importance to the region. The region here was defined as municipalities located on the Baltic Sea coast within the Schleswig-Holstein state, Germany. The hotspots are the towns of Kiel and Eckernförde. They are urban areas with a high concentration of people and assets, which previously experienced extreme flood events. From the performed investigation it was found out that modeled flood differently impacts Kiel and Eckernförde. The results produced by MCA show that the scores of direct and indirect damage are slightly higher in Eckernförde than in Kiel. Transport disruption is a compelling element in the performed regional impact assessment and demonstrated immense weight. Extreme events may pose significant direct and indirect impacts on the coastal roads, obstructing not only the access to important landmarks such as hospitals, train stations, harbors, etc. but also to contiguous municipalities. Yet, the analysis showed that other impact indicators are rather of local importance and would not cause vast damage on a

  20. Radiological Impacts Assessment during Normal Decommissioning Operation for EU-APR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hwang, Do Hyun; Lee, Keun Sung [KHNP CRI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Lee, ChongHui [KEPCO Engineering and Construction, Gimcheon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-10-15

    In this paper, radiological impacts on human beings during normal execution of the decommissioning operations from the current standard design of EU-APR which has been modified and improved from its original design of APR1400 to comply with EUR, are evaluated. Decommissioning is the final phase in the life cycle of a nuclear installation, covering all activities from shutdown and removal of fissile material to environmental restoration of the site. According to article 5.4 specified in chapter 2.20 of European Utility Requirements (EUR), all relevant radiological impacts on human being should be considered during the environmental assessment of decommissioning, including external exposure from direct radiation of plant and other radiation sources, and internal exposure due to inhalation and ingestion. In this paper, radiological impacts on human beings during normal circumstances of the decommissioning operation were evaluated from the current standard design of EU-APR based on the simple transport model and practical generic methodology for assessing the radiological impact provided by IAEA. The results of dose assessment fulfilled the dose limit for all scenarios.

  1. Assessing the welfare impact of foot disorders in dairy cattle by a modeling approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bruijnis, M.R.N.; Beerda, B.; Hogeveen, H.; Stassen, E.N.

    2012-01-01

    Foot disorders are the main cause of dairy cow lameness and are considered to have a major impact on the welfare of dairy cattle. This study adopts a modeling approach, using a dynamic stochastic model, to provide more insight into the welfare impact of different types of foot disorders, both

  2. An evaluation grid for the assessments of macro-economic impacts of energy transition. Working paper Nr 48

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ouvrard, Jean-Francois; Scapecchi, Pascale

    2014-05-01

    This study aims at comparing the main available macro-economic models used to assess the consequences of policies for energy transition, and at determining their scope and limitations of validity. More precisely, the authors study the impact of two categories of policy instruments (those aimed at modifying prices and incentive ones) and the role of the adopted modelling of technical progress and of the macro-economic closure of the model. In a first part, they present various tools or models used to assess economic impacts of energy transition: technical-economic, macro-economic, general balance, and hybrid models. Then, after a presentation of some principles adopted to analyse these various models, the authors discuss price-based tools, tools based on demand support, the key role of technological progress, the impact of the macro-economic closure on the reached objective. They finally discuss the results obtained by applying an evaluation grid to energy transition scenarios. A set of recommendations is finally proposed for a better assessment of these impacts

  3. Using the Five Domains Model to Assess the Adverse Impacts of Husbandry, Veterinary, and Equitation Interventions on Horse Welfare

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGreevy, Paul; Berger, Jeannine; de Brauwere, Nic; Doherty, Orla; Harrison, Anna; Fiedler, Julie; Jones, Claudia; McDonnell, Sue; McLean, Andrew; Nakonechny, Lindsay; Preshaw, Liane; Tzioumis, Vicky; Webster, John; Wolfensohn, Sarah; Yeates, James; Jones, Bidda

    2018-01-01

    Simple Summary Using an adaptation of the domain-based welfare assessment model, a panel of horse welfare professionals (with professional expertise in psychology, equitation science, veterinary science, education, welfare, equestrian coaching, advocacy, and community engagement) assessed the perceived harms, if any, resulting from 116 interventions that are commonly applied to horses. Scores for Domain 5 (the integrated mental impact) gathered after extensive discussion during a four-day workshop aligned well with overall impact scores assigned by the same panellists individually before the workshop, although some rankings changed after workshop participation. Domain 4 (Behaviour) had the strongest association with Domain 5, whilst Domain 1 (Nutrition) had the weakest association with Domain 5, implying that the panellists considered commonly applied nutritional interventions to have less of a bearing on subjective mental state than commonly applied behavioural restrictions. The workshop defined each intervention, and stated assumptions around each, resulting in a set of exemplar procedures that could be used in future equine welfare assessments. Abstract The aim of this study was to conduct a series of paper-based exercises in order to assess the negative (adverse) welfare impacts, if any, of common interventions on domestic horses across a broad range of different contexts of equine care and training. An international panel (with professional expertise in psychology, equitation science, veterinary science, education, welfare, equestrian coaching, advocacy, and community engagement; n = 16) met over a four-day period to define and assess these interventions, using an adaptation of the domain-based assessment model. The interventions were considered within 14 contexts: C1 Weaning; C2 Diet; C3 Housing; C4 Foundation training; C5 Ill-health and veterinary interventions (chiefly medical); C6 Ill-health and veterinary interventions (chiefly surgical); C7 Elective

  4. Improving Baseline Model Assumptions: Evaluating the Impacts of Typical Methodological Approaches in Watershed Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muenich, R. L.; Kalcic, M. M.; Teshager, A. D.; Long, C. M.; Wang, Y. C.; Scavia, D.

    2017-12-01

    Thanks to the availability of open-source software, online tutorials, and advanced software capabilities, watershed modeling has expanded its user-base and applications significantly in the past thirty years. Even complicated models like the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) are being used and documented in hundreds of peer-reviewed publications each year, and likely more applied in practice. These models can help improve our understanding of present, past, and future conditions, or analyze important "what-if" management scenarios. However, baseline data and methods are often adopted and applied without rigorous testing. In multiple collaborative projects, we have evaluated the influence of some of these common approaches on model results. Specifically, we examined impacts of baseline data and assumptions involved in manure application, combined sewer overflows, and climate data incorporation across multiple watersheds in the Western Lake Erie Basin. In these efforts, we seek to understand the impact of using typical modeling data and assumptions, versus using improved data and enhanced assumptions on model outcomes and thus ultimately, study conclusions. We provide guidance for modelers as they adopt and apply data and models for their specific study region. While it is difficult to quantitatively assess the full uncertainty surrounding model input data and assumptions, recognizing the impacts of model input choices is important when considering actions at the both the field and watershed scales.

  5. ASSESSMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT OF ENERGY FACILITIES IN THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF IRAN BY METHOD OF BUILDING COMPOSITE THREE-DIMENSIONAL MODELS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. A. Mehdizadeh

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The author represents the method of creating composite 3D-models employing technology of geographical information systems for environmental impact assessment of projected, constructed and operating energy facilities. The paper describes the techniques of applying bundled software ArcView with add-on modules ImageWarp and RASTRProfi for alignment of multiscale bit-mapped and direct-beam three-dimensional models with the object of evaluating ecological risks for diverse territories.The article evaluates the environmental impact of a thermal power plant near the city of Rasht (industrial area Saravan and demonstrates analysis of the territorial distribution of the soil contamination with varied pollutants at different wind structures. The paper demonstrates the method of building composite 3D-models applied for assessment of presumable incidents with radioactivity discharge at the nuclear power plant in Halileh, 20 km from the city of Bushehr. By analyzing the wind diagram in the territory being explored and determining the predominant wind directions in different periods, it is possible by way of employing this method to distinguish the territories and the objects with most unfavorable prognosis. This enables rendering a prompt decision on the measures minimizing unfavorable impact on the population and environment.Altering the point of topographical survey while synchronizing the scales, the researcher can place the designed project within any territory and analyze the necessary parameters for each variant.The author considers the presented in such a manner technique worth productive implementing while analyzing environmental impact of both operating and projected industrial facilities (industrial and agricultural enterprises, thermal and nuclear electric-power plants etc.. 

  6. Evaluation of the usefulness of ecological simulation models in power plant impact assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Swartzman, G.L.; Haar, R.T.; McKenzie, D.H.

    1981-05-01

    Comparisons were made of the equations, rationale, data sources and parameter values of 26 simulation models of fish and zooplankton population dynamics and energetics and results were compared in standard notation and units, process by process. The major process categories considered were consumption, predation, metabolic processes, assimilation, growth, fecundity, recruitment and mortality. A model simulation language, AEGIS (Aquatic Ecosystem General Impact Simulator) was built to compare model equations process by process allowing convenient interchange of model equations for any process module. This simulator was parameterized to a test site, Lake Keowee, South Carolina, on which resides the Oconee Nuclear Power Station. Model parameter estimation and comparison of these models with biological monitoring data allows eveluation of ecosystem models from the standpoint of prediction of behavior under normal and perturbed conditions, organization of data into an ecosystem framework, and evaluation of data to address impact questions

  7. Social impact assessment in energy projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koivujaervi, S.; Kantola, I.; Maekinen, P.

    1998-01-01

    The research report is based on literature and interviews on the social impact assessment (SIA) in energy projects in Finland, both before and after the EIA Act has been in force in Finland. The concept and content of SIA, the requirements set by the legislation, its relation with other environmental impacts, the assessment process and the used methods have been studied on the basis of the literature analysis. A total of 26 persons representing the coordination authorities, persons issuing statements, researchers, civil servants, consultants and project developers were interviewed for the research. The interviews were made by the University of Turku in the form of theme interviews, investigating the present status, practices and expectations of the SIA. The unestablished status was seen to be the problem in the SIA, which was reflected in the interviewers' varying views about the content of the SIA. Among the operators, the general character of the SIA criticism in the statements concerning the assessment programmes or reports was seen as a problem as well; the assessment of social impact has been considered to be insufficient, however, without any identification of the effects or how the effects should have been assessed. For the time preceding the EIA Act, the assessment of the social impact of hydraulic work, power plant and transmission line projects and the project of the fifth nuclear power plant have been studied. As to the power plant and transmission line projects after the validity of the EIA Act, all the 20 projects were gone through which had progressed during the spring 1998 at least to the assessment report stage. Of these projects, the assessment of the social impact of one transmission line and one power plant project was studied in detail. The report also studies the assessment of the social impact of the repository for nuclear waste on the basis of the experience gained in Finland and in other countries. On the basis of the literature study

  8. Background for spatial differentiation in life cycle impact assessment. The EDIP2003 methodology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Potting, José; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky

    2004-01-01

    The code of practice of the Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry and the recent international standards and technical reports from ISO are widely accepted as general frameworks for Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) but they are not detailed methodological references, since international...... between modelled impact and the occurrence of actual impact. This technical report aims to contribute to a solution of the poor accuracy of the assessed impact in typical LCA resulting from the present disregard of spatial information in LCA....

  9. EURASIAN MINERAL WATER: MATHEMATICAL MODELING, CLASSIFICATION AND ASSESSMENT OF THEIR IMPACT ON THE BIOCHEMICAL COMPOSITION OF HUMAN BLOOD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nikolay Kornilov

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available In the article the results of comparative analysis of the composition of the Eurasian hydromineral resources and the assessment of their impact on the physiological condition of a human organism according to biochemical studies of venous blood are presented. Processing of initial data on the composition and properties of mineral waters chloride-hydrocarbonate, sulphate- hydrocarbonate and chloride-sulphate types and venous blood are made using the method of mathematical modeling, developed by the authors of this article. It is shown that in the balneological impact of hydromineral resources on the body in the blood increases the hemoglobin and oxygen, decreases glucose, and acid-base pH shifted to high alkalinity.

  10. Generic models for use in assessing the impact of discharges of radioactive substances to the environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    The concern of society in general for the quality of the environment and the realization that all human activities have some environmental effect has led to the development of a procedure for environmental impact analysis. This procedure is a predictive one, which forecasts probable environmental effects before some action, such as the construction and operation of a nuclear power station, is decided upon. The method of prediction is by the application of models that describe the environmental processes in mathematical terms in order to produce a quantitative result which can be used in the decision making process. This report describes such a procedure for application to radioactive discharges and is addressed to the national regulatory bodies and technical and administrative personnel responsible for performing environmental impact analyses. The report is also intended to support the recently published IAEA Safety Guide on Regulatory Control of Radioactive Discharges to the Environment. It expands on and supersedes previous advice published in IAEA Safety Series No. 57 on Generic Models and Parameters for Assessing the Environmental Transfer of Radionuclides from Routine Releases. This Safety Report was developed through a series of consultants meetings and three Advisory Group Meetings

  11. Assessing the environmental impacts of soil compaction in Life Cycle Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stoessel, Franziska; Sonderegger, Thomas; Bayer, Peter; Hellweg, Stefanie

    2018-07-15

    Maintaining biotic capacity is of key importance with regard to global food and biomass provision. One reason for productivity loss is soil compaction. In this paper, we use a statistical empirical model to assess long-term yield losses through soil compaction in a regionalized manner, with global coverage and for different agricultural production systems. To facilitate the application of the model, we provide an extensive dataset including crop production data (with 81 crops and corresponding production systems), related machinery application, as well as regionalized soil texture and soil moisture data. Yield loss is modeled for different levels of soil depth (0-25cm, 25-40cm and >40cm depth). This is of particular relevance since compaction in topsoil is classified as reversible in the short term (approximately four years), while recovery of subsoil layers takes much longer. We derive characterization factors quantifying the future average annual yield loss as a fraction of the current yield for 100years and applicable in Life Cycle Assessment studies of agricultural production. The results show that crops requiring enhanced machinery inputs, such as potatoes, have a major influence on soil compaction and yield losses, while differences between mechanized production systems (organic and integrated production) are small. The spatial variations of soil moisture and clay content are reflected in the results showing global hotspot regions especially susceptible to soil compaction, e.g. the South of Brazil, the Caribbean Islands, Central Africa, and the Maharashtra district of India. The impacts of soil compaction can be substantial, with highest annual yield losses in the range of 0.5% (95% percentile) due to one year of potato production (cumulated over 100y this corresponds to a one-time loss of 50% of the present yield). These modeling results demonstrate the necessity for including soil compaction effects in Life Cycle Impact Assessment. Copyright © 2018

  12. The Impact of Credit Constraints on Housing Demand: Assessed with Endogenous Price and Expenditure

    OpenAIRE

    Li, Yarui; Leatham, David J.

    2013-01-01

    This article assesses the impact of credit constraints on housing demand with price and expenditure treated as endogenous variables. Using AIDS model, we find the model without controlling for endogeneities tends to underestimate the impact of credit constraint on the budget shares and the estimates are less significant.

  13. Uncertainties in assessing climate change impacts on the hydrology of Mediterranean basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludwig, Ralf

    2013-04-01

    There is substantial evidence in historical and recent observations that the Mediterranean and neighboring regions are especially vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Numerous climate projections, stemming from ensembles of global and regional climate models, agree on severe changes in the climate forcing which are likely to exacerbate subsequent ecological, economic and social impacts. Many of these causal connections are closely linked to the general expectation that water availability will decline in the already water-stressed basins of Africa, the Mediterranean region and the Near East, even though considerable regional variances must be expected. Consequently, climate change impacts on water resources are raising concerns regarding their possible management and security implications. Decreasing access to water resources and other related factors could be a cause or a 'multiplier' of tensions within and between countries. Whether security threats arise from climate impacts or options for cooperation evolve does not depend only on the severity of the impacts themselves, but on social, economic, and institutional vulnerabilities or resilience as well as factors that influence local, national and international relations. However, an assessment of vulnerability and risks hinges on natural, socio-economic, and political conditions and responses, all of which are uncertain. Multidisciplinary research is needed to tackle the multi-facet complexity of climate change impacts on water resources in the Mediterranean and neighboring countries. This is particularly true in a region of overall data scarcity and poor data management and exchange structures. The current potential to develop appropriate regional adaptation measures towards climate change impacts suffers heavily from large uncertainties. These spread along a long chain of components, starting from the definition of emission scenarios to global and regional climate modeling to impact models and a

  14. Modelling climate change impacts on crop production for food security

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Bindi, M.; Palosuo, T.; Trnka, Miroslav; Semenov, M. A.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 65, SEP (2015), s. 3-5 ISSN 0936-577X Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : Crop production Upscaling * Climate change impact and adaptation assessments * Upscaling * Model ensembles Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.690, year: 2015

  15. Catalysis-by-design impacts assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fassbender, L L; Young, J K [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (USA); Sen, R K [Sen (R.K.) and Associates, Washington, DC (USA)

    1991-05-01

    Catalyst researchers have always recognized the need to develop a detailed understanding of the mechanisms of catalytic processes, and have hoped that it would lead to developing a theoretical predictive base to guide the search for new catalysts. This understanding allows one to develop a set of hierarchical models, from fundamental atomic-level ab-initio models to detailed engineering simulations of reactor systems, to direct the search for optimized, efficient catalyst systems. During the last two decades, the explosions of advanced surface analysis techniques have helped considerably to develop the building blocks for understanding various catalytic reactions. An effort to couple these theoretical and experimental advances to develop a set of hierarchical models to predict the nature of catalytic materials is a program entitled Catalysis-by-Design (CRD).'' In assessing the potential impacts of CBD on US industry, the key point to remember is that the value of the program lies in developing a novel methodology to search for new catalyst systems. Industrial researchers can then use this methodology to develop proprietary catalysts. Most companies involved in catalyst R D have two types of ongoing projects. The first type, what we call market-driven R D,'' are projects that support and improve upon a company's existing product lines. Project of the second type, technology-driven R D,'' are longer term, involve the development of totally new catalysts, and are initiated through scientists' research ideas. The CBD approach will impact both types of projects. However, this analysis indicates that the near-term impacts will be on market-driven'' projects. The conclusions and recommendations presented in this report were obtained by the authors through personal interviews with individuals involved in a variety of industrial catalyst development programs and through the three CBD workshops held in the summer of 1989. 34 refs., 7 figs., 7 tabs.

  16. Application of the HBV model for assessment of climate change impacts on the elements of hydrological cycle for the Struma River Basin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stanev, Krassimir

    2004-01-01

    The model used in this report is a version of the HBV model developed for the project Climate Change and Energy Production, a Nordic project aimed at evaluating the impacts of climate change on the water resources. It has a simple vegetation parametrization including interception, temperature based evapotranspiration. calculations, lake evaporation, lake routing, glacier mass balance simulation, special functions for climate change simulations etc. The HBV model, originally developed at the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute in the first half of the seventies (Bergstroem 1976) has gained widespread use for a large range of applications both in Scandinavia and beyond. It can be classified as a semi-distributed conceptual model. The version described in this report was developed for the Nordic project 'Climate change and Energy Production' (Saelthun 1996), as a synthesis of several versions used in the different Nordic countries. The main input variables are the average daily temperature, daily totals of the precipitation, the potential evapotranspiration and the daily discharges. The HBV model was applied for assessment of climate change impacts on the elements of hydrological cycle for the Struma river basin. The river Struma flows from North to South up to the Aegean Sea. Considerable part of the river basin is situated in northwest part of Bulgaria, heaving an area of more than 10 000 km 2 and average elevation about 900m asl (cross-section Marino pole). The period of 16 years (1973-1988), four precipitation and temperature stations were used for the model parameters evaluation. The achieved value of R 2 (Nash criterion) is 0.55. The climate change impact calculations (monthly values of temperatures change in o C and precipitation change in %) for two scenarios were used for the input data correction to the HBV model. The obtained results are promising and they show the potential possibility for the HBV model use to assess the climate change

  17. ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF CORRUPTION UPON THE ROMANIAN ECONOMY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sorin-Daniel, MANOLE

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract: This paper is dedicated to estimating the influence of corruption upon Romania’s economic growth by means of an econometric model ARMA component. In order to quantify the impact, firstly some indicators have been identified to properly assess the economic condition and corruption. The most important economic growth indicator is real GDP growth rate (or chain index of real GDP. In order to estimate the level of corruption, the authors have used the Corruption Perceptions Index, annually launched and calculated by Transparency International. The model chosen for this paper has an ARMA component and expresses the dependence of the economic variable on the corruption variable by a straight-line relationship. The model shows that one of the factors having a significant negative impact upon the economic growth is corruption.

  18. Assessing dengue vaccination impact: Model challenges and future directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Recker, Mario; Vannice, Kirsten; Hombach, Joachim; Jit, Mark; Simmons, Cameron P

    2016-08-31

    In response to the sharp rise in the global burden caused by dengue virus (DENV) over the last few decades, the WHO has set out three specific key objectives in its disease control strategy: (i) to estimate the true burden of dengue by 2015; (ii) a reduction in dengue mortality by at least 50% by 2020 (used as a baseline); and (iii) a reduction in dengue morbidity by at least 25% by 2020. Although various elements will all play crucial parts in achieving this goal, from diagnosis and case management to integrated surveillance and outbreak response, sustainable vector control, vaccine implementation and finally operational and implementation research, it seems clear that new tools (e.g. a safe and effective vaccine and/or effective vector control) are key to success. The first dengue vaccine was licensed in December 2015, Dengvaxia® (CYD-TDV) developed by Sanofi Pasteur. The WHO has provided guidance on the use of CYD-TDV in endemic countries, for which there are a variety of considerations beyond the risk-benefit evaluation done by regulatory authorities, including public health impact and cost-effectiveness. Population-level vaccine impact and economic and financial aspects are two issues that can potentially be considered by means of mathematical modelling, especially for new products for which empirical data are still lacking. In December 2014 a meeting was convened by the WHO in order to revisit the current status of dengue transmission models and their utility for public health decision-making. Here, we report on the main points of discussion and the conclusions of this meeting, as well as next steps for maximising the use of mathematical models for vaccine decision-making. Copyright © 2016.

  19. Downscaling climate model output for water resources impacts assessment (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maurer, E. P.; Pierce, D. W.; Cayan, D. R.

    2013-12-01

    Water agencies in the U.S. and around the globe are beginning to wrap climate change projections into their planning procedures, recognizing that ongoing human-induced changes to hydrology can affect water management in significant ways. Future hydrology changes are derived using global climate model (GCM) projections, though their output is at a spatial scale that is too coarse to meet the needs of those concerned with local and regional impacts. Those investigating local impacts have employed a range of techniques for downscaling, the process of translating GCM output to a more locally-relevant spatial scale. Recent projects have produced libraries of publicly-available downscaled climate projections, enabling managers, researchers and others to focus on impacts studies, drawing from a shared pool of fine-scale climate data. Besides the obvious advantage to data users, who no longer need to develop expertise in downscaling prior to examining impacts, the use of the downscaled data by hundreds of people has allowed a crowdsourcing approach to examining the data. The wide variety of applications employed by different users has revealed characteristics not discovered during the initial data set production. This has led to a deeper look at the downscaling methods, including the assumptions and effect of bias correction of GCM output. Here new findings are presented related to the assumption of stationarity in the relationships between large- and fine-scale climate, as well as the impact of quantile mapping bias correction on precipitation trends. The validity of these assumptions can influence the interpretations of impacts studies using data derived using these standard statistical methods and help point the way to improved methods.

  20. Assessment of the potential impacts of plant traits across environments by combining global sensitivity analysis and dynamic modeling in wheat

    OpenAIRE

    Casadebaig, Pierre; Zheng, Bangyou; Chapman, Scott; Huth, Neil; Faivre, Robert; Chenu, Karine

    2015-01-01

    A crop can be viewed as a complex system with outputs (e.g. yield) that are affected by inputs of genetic, physiology, pedo-climatic and management information. Application of numerical methods for model exploration assist in evaluating the major most influential inputs, providing the simulation model is a credible description of the biological system. A sensitivity analysis was used to assess the simulated impact on yield of a suite of traits involved in major processes of crop growth and de...

  1. Models and parameters for environmental radiological assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miller, C W [ed.

    1984-01-01

    This book presents a unified compilation of models and parameters appropriate for assessing the impact of radioactive discharges to the environment. Models examined include those developed for the prediction of atmospheric and hydrologic transport and deposition, for terrestrial and aquatic food-chain bioaccumulation, and for internal and external dosimetry. Chapters have been entered separately into the data base. (ACR)

  2. Models and parameters for environmental radiological assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, C.W.

    1984-01-01

    This book presents a unified compilation of models and parameters appropriate for assessing the impact of radioactive discharges to the environment. Models examined include those developed for the prediction of atmospheric and hydrologic transport and deposition, for terrestrial and aquatic food-chain bioaccumulation, and for internal and external dosimetry. Chapters have been entered separately into the data base

  3. Economic Impact Assessment of Wind Power Integration: A Quasi-Public Goods Property Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huiru Zhao

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available The integration of wind power into power grid will bring some impacts on the multiple subjects of electric power system. Economic impacts of wind power integration on multiple subjects of China’s electric power system were quantitatively assessed from Quasi-public goods property perspective in this paper. Firstly, the Quasi-public goods property of transmission services provided by power grid corporations was elaborated. Secondly, the multiple subjects of China’s electric power system, which include electricity generation enterprises (EGEs, power grid corporations (PGCs, electricity consumers (ECs, and environment, were detailed analyzed. Thirdly, based on the OPF-based nodal price model and transmission service cost allocation model, the economic impact assessment model of wind power integration was built from Quasi-public goods property perspective. Then, the IEEE-24 bus system employed in this paper was introduced according to current status of China’s electric power system, and the modeling of wind turbine was also introduced. Finally, the simulation analysis was performed, and the economic impacts of wind power integration on EGEs, PGCs, ECs and Environment were calculated. The results indicate, from Quasi-public goods property perspective, the wind power integration will bring positive impacts on EGEs, PGCs and Environment, while negative impacts on ECs. The findings can provide references for power system managers, energy planners, and policy makers.

  4. Ground water impact assessment report for the 216-B-3 Pond system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, V.G.; Law, A.G.; Reidel, S.P.; Evelo, S.D.; Barnett, D.B.; Sweeney, M.D.

    1995-01-01

    Ground water impact assessments were required for a number of liquid effluent receiving sites according to the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order Milestones M-17-00A and M-17-00B, as agreed upon by the US Department of Energy. This report is one of the last three assessments required and addresses the impact of continued discharge of uncontaminated wastewater to the 216-B-3C expansion lobe of the B Pond system in the 200 East Area until June 1997. Evaluation of past and projected effluent volumes and composition, geohydrology of the receiving site, and contaminant plume distribution patterns, combined with ground water modeling, were used to assess both changes in ground water flow regime and contaminant-related impacts

  5. Environmental impact assessment - baseline noise survey and noise impact assessment for Aurora Mine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yee, S.

    1996-01-01

    A noise impact assessment was conducted at Syncrude's proposed Aurora Mine site to comply with Alberta Energy and Utilities Board (AEUB) Noise Control Directive ID 94-4. Noise assessments were conducted near a major noise source, i.e. the hydraulic and electric shovels. Noise levels at 50 meters away from the source varied from 72.3 to 79.7 dBA. The worst case noise level was 75 dBA measured at 100 meters away from a hydraulic shovel. This assessment was used to calculate the predicted design sound level from a noise source at the nearest or most impacted occupied dwelling. Two cabins located near the access road and along Kearl Lake respectively, were identified as the most impacted and nearest dwellings to the mine site. The predicted sound level at one cabin was 43 dBA, and 55 dBA at the other. Fort McKay was also assessed because it is the nearest community to the mine site. The sound level at Fort McKay was predicted to be 34 dBA. These results indicate that the sound level from Aurora Mine is not in compliance with the AEUB Noise Control Directive. Attenuation measures are required to reduce the noise to acceptable level at Cabin A and B. Predicted sound level at Fort McKay is lower than the permitted sound level

  6. Computer-generated video fly-through: an aid to visual impact assessment for windfarms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neilson, G.; Leeming, T.; Hall, S.

    1998-01-01

    Computer generated video fly-through provides a new method of assessing the visual impact of wind farms. With a PC, software and digital terrain model of the wind farm it is possible to produce videos ranging from wireframe to realistically shaded models. Using computer generated video fly-through visually sensitive corridors can be explored fully, wind turbine rotors can be seen in motion, critical viewpoints can be identified for photomontages and the context of the wind farm appreciated better. This paper describes the techniques of computer generated video fly through and examines its various applications in visual impact assessment of wind farms. (Author)

  7. Multi-basin, Multi-sector Drought Economic Impact Model in Python: Development and Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutenson, J. L.; Zhu, L.; Ernest, A. N. S.; Oubeidillah, A.; Bearden, B.; Johnson, T. G.

    2015-12-01

    Drought is one of the most economically disastrous natural hazards, one whose impacts are exacerbated by the lack of abrupt onset and offset that define tornados and hurricanes. In the United States, about 30 billion dollars losses is caused by drought in 2012, resulting in widespread economic impacts for societies, industries, agriculture, and recreation. And in California, the drought cost statewide economic losses about 2.2 billion, with a total loss of 17,100 seasonal and part-time jobs. Driven by a variety of factors including climate change, population growth, increased water demands, alteration to land cover, drought occurs widely all over the world. Drought economic consequence assessment tool are greatly needed to allow decision makers and stakeholders to anticipate and manage effectively. In this study, current drought economic impact modeling methods were reviewed. Most of these models only deal with the impact in the agricultural sector with a focus on a single basin; few of these models analyze long term impact. However, drought impacts are rarely restricted to basin boundaries, and cascading economic impacts are likely to be significant. A holistic approach to multi-basin, multi-sector drought economic impact assessment is needed.In this work, we developed a new model for drought economic impact assessment, Drought Economic Impact Model in Python (PyDEM). This model classified all business establishments into thirteen categories based on NAICS, and using a continuous dynamic social accounting matrix approach, coupled with calculation of the indirect consequences for the local and regional economies and the various resilience. In addition, Environmental Policy Integrated Climate model was combined for analyzing drought caused soil erosion together with agriculture production, and then the long term impacts of drought were achieved. A visible output of this model was presented in GIS. In this presentation, Choctawhatchee-Pea-Yellow River Basins, Alabama

  8. Modeling the impact of climate change in Germany with biosphere models for long-term safety assessment of nuclear waste repositories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staudt, C; Semiochkina, N; Kaiser, J C; Pröhl, G

    2013-01-01

    Biosphere models are used to evaluate the exposure of populations to radionuclides from a deep geological repository. Since the time frame for assessments of long-time disposal safety is 1 million years, potential future climate changes need to be accounted for. Potential future climate conditions were defined for northern Germany according to model results from the BIOCLIM project. Nine present day reference climate regions were defined to cover those future climate conditions. A biosphere model was developed according to the BIOMASS methodology of the IAEA and model parameters were adjusted to the conditions at the reference climate regions. The model includes exposure pathways common to those reference climate regions in a stylized biosphere and relevant to the exposure of a hypothetical self-sustaining population at the site of potential radionuclide contamination from a deep geological repository. The end points of the model are Biosphere Dose Conversion factors (BDCF) for a range of radionuclides and scenarios normalized for a constant radionuclide concentration in near-surface groundwater. Model results suggest an increased exposure of in dry climate regions with a high impact of drinking water consumption rates and the amount of irrigation water used for agriculture. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Evaluation of additional biogeochemical impacts on mitigation pathways in an energy sytem integrated assessment model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dessens, O.

    2017-12-01

    Within the last IPCC AR5 a large and systematic sensitivity study around available technologies and timing of policies applied in IAMs to achieve the 2°C target has been conducted. However the simple climate representations included in IAMs are generally tuned to the results of ensemble means. This may result in hiding within the ensemble mean results possible challenging mitigation pathways for the economy or the technology future scenarios. This work provides new insights on the sensitivity of the socio-economic response to different climate factors under a 2°C climate change target in order to help guide future efforts to reduce uncertainty in the climate mitigation decisions. The main objective is to understand and bring new insights on how future global warming will affect the natural biochemical feedbacks on the climate system and what could be the consequences of these feedbacks on the anthropogenic emission pathways with a specific focus on the energy-economy system. It specifically focuses on three issues of the climate representation affecting the energy system transformation and GHG emissions pathways: 1- Impacts of the climate sensitivity (or TCR); 2- Impacts of warming on the radiative forcing (cloudiness,...); 3- Impacts of warming on the carbon cycle (carbon cycle feedback). We use the integrated assessment model TIAM-UCL to examine the mitigation pathways compatible with the 2C target depending on assumptions regarding the 3 issues of the climate representation introduced above. The following key conclusions drawn from this study are that mitigation to 2°C is still possible under strong climate sensitivity (TCR), strong carbon cycle amplification or positive radiative forcing feedback. However, this level of climate mitigation will require a significant transformation in the way we produce and consume energy. Carbon capture and sequestration on electricity generation, industry and biomass is part of the technology pool needed to achieve this

  10. Dust impact on surface solar irradiance assessed with model simulations, satellite observations and ground-based measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kosmopoulos, Panagiotis G.; Kazadzis, Stelios; Taylor, Michael; Athanasopoulou, Eleni; Speyer, Orestis; Raptis, Panagiotis I.; Marinou, Eleni; Proestakis, Emmanouil; Solomos, Stavros; Gerasopoulos, Evangelos; Amiridis, Vassilis; Bais, Alkiviadis; Kontoes, Charalabos

    2017-07-01

    This study assesses the impact of dust on surface solar radiation focussing on an extreme dust event. For this purpose, we exploited the synergy of AERONET measurements and passive and active satellite remote sensing (MODIS and CALIPSO) observations, in conjunction with radiative transfer model (RTM) and chemical transport model (CTM) simulations and the 1-day forecasts from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS). The area of interest is the eastern Mediterranean where anomalously high aerosol loads were recorded between 30 January and 3 February 2015. The intensity of the event was extremely high, with aerosol optical depth (AOD) reaching 3.5, and optical/microphysical properties suggesting aged dust. RTM and CTM simulations were able to quantify the extent of dust impact on surface irradiances and reveal substantial reduction in solar energy exploitation capacity of PV and CSP installations under this high aerosol load. We found that such an extreme dust event can result in Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) attenuation by as much as 40-50 % and a much stronger Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI) decrease (80-90 %), while spectrally this attenuation is distributed to 37 % in the UV region, 33 % in the visible and around 30 % in the infrared. CAMS forecasts provided a reliable available energy assessment (accuracy within 10 % of that obtained from MODIS). Spatially, the dust plume resulted in a zonally averaged reduction of GHI and DNI of the order of 150 W m-2 in southern Greece, and a mean increase of 20 W m-2 in the northern Greece as a result of lower AOD values combined with local atmospheric processes. This analysis of a real-world scenario contributes to the understanding and quantification of the impact range of high aerosol loads on solar energy and the potential for forecasting power generation failures at sunshine-privileged locations where solar power plants exist, are under construction or are being planned.

  11. Dust impact on surface solar irradiance assessed with model simulations, satellite observations and ground-based measurements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. G. Kosmopoulos

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available This study assesses the impact of dust on surface solar radiation focussing on an extreme dust event. For this purpose, we exploited the synergy of AERONET measurements and passive and active satellite remote sensing (MODIS and CALIPSO observations, in conjunction with radiative transfer model (RTM and chemical transport model (CTM simulations and the 1-day forecasts from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS. The area of interest is the eastern Mediterranean where anomalously high aerosol loads were recorded between 30 January and 3 February 2015. The intensity of the event was extremely high, with aerosol optical depth (AOD reaching 3.5, and optical/microphysical properties suggesting aged dust. RTM and CTM simulations were able to quantify the extent of dust impact on surface irradiances and reveal substantial reduction in solar energy exploitation capacity of PV and CSP installations under this high aerosol load. We found that such an extreme dust event can result in Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI attenuation by as much as 40–50 % and a much stronger Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI decrease (80–90 %, while spectrally this attenuation is distributed to 37 % in the UV region, 33 % in the visible and around 30 % in the infrared. CAMS forecasts provided a reliable available energy assessment (accuracy within 10 % of that obtained from MODIS. Spatially, the dust plume resulted in a zonally averaged reduction of GHI and DNI of the order of 150 W m−2 in southern Greece, and a mean increase of 20 W m−2 in the northern Greece as a result of lower AOD values combined with local atmospheric processes. This analysis of a real-world scenario contributes to the understanding and quantification of the impact range of high aerosol loads on solar energy and the potential for forecasting power generation failures at sunshine-privileged locations where solar power plants exist, are under construction or are

  12. Impact assessment of ionising radiation in wildlife

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    This R and D project was commissioned by the Environment Agency and English Nature in January 2001 to provide up-to-date information on ionising radiation impact to wildlife, upon which a robust assessment approach may be developed. The methodology will provide an interim approach, whilst awaiting the outcome of the European Commission funded project 'Framework for Assessment of Environmental Impact' (FASSET) due to end in October 2003. The aims of the report were: to summarise the latest research on the behaviour, transfer and impact of ionising radiation effects on wildlife; to outline and review relevant European Directives which have impacted on the requirements to assess the impact to wildlife from ionising radiation in the UK; to consider the role of regulatory bodies in assessing the impact of ionising radiation on wildlife with respect to England and Wales; to make recommendations on the relative biological effectiveness of different types of radiation with respect to wildlife; and to recommend an approach with which to assess the 'scale of risk' to wildlife from the effects of ionising radiation, with spreadsheets to support the methodology. The report describes the behaviour and transfer of radionuclides in a number of different ecosystem types. Particular emphasis is placed on those ecosystems most likely to be impacted by the authorised discharges of radioactivity within the UK. As there is no international consensus on the approach to be taken to assess the impact of ionising radiation on wildlife, some countries have adopted their own legislation. The report evaluates these regulatory frameworks and describe the current UK position

  13. Representative Agricultural Pathways and Scenarios for Regional Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation. 5; Chapter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valdivia, Roberto O.; Antle, John M.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruane, Alexander C.; Vervoort, Joost; Ashfaq, Muhammad; Hathie, Ibrahima; Tui, Sabine Homann-Kee; Mulwa, Richard; Nhemachena, Charles; hide

    2015-01-01

    The global change research community has recognized that new pathway and scenario concepts are needed to implement impact and vulnerability assessment where precise prediction is not possible, and also that these scenarios need to be logically consistent across local, regional, and global scales. For global climate models, representative concentration pathways (RCPs) have been developed that provide a range of time-series of atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations into the future. For impact and vulnerability assessment, new socio-economic pathway and scenario concepts have also been developed, with leadership from the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC).This chapter presents concepts and methods for development of regional representative agricultural pathways (RAOs) and scenarios that can be used for agricultural model intercomparison, improvement, and impact assessment in a manner consistent with the new global pathways and scenarios. The development of agriculture-specific pathways and scenarios is motivated by the need for a protocol-based approach to climate impact, vulnerability, and adaptation assessment. Until now, the various global and regional models used for agricultural-impact assessment have been implemented with individualized scenarios using various data and model structures, often without transparent documentation, public availability, and consistency across disciplines. These practices have reduced the credibility of assessments, and also hampered the advancement of the science through model intercomparison, improvement, and synthesis of model results across studies. The recognition of the need for better coordination among the agricultural modeling community, including the development of standard reference scenarios with adequate agriculture-specific detail led to the creation of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) in 2010. The development of RAPs is one of the cross-cutting themes in AgMIP's work

  14. Assessing Animal Welfare Impacts in the Management of European Rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus), European Moles (Talpa europaea) and Carrion Crows (Corvus corone).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Sandra E; Sharp, Trudy M; Macdonald, David W

    2016-01-01

    Human-wildlife conflict is a global issue. Attempts to manage this conflict impact upon wild animal welfare, an issue receiving little attention until relatively recently. Where human activities harm animal welfare these effects should be minimised where possible. However, little is known about the welfare impacts of different wildlife management interventions, and opinions on impacts vary widely. Welfare impacts therefore need to be assessed objectively. Our objectives were to: 1) establish whether an existing welfare assessment model could differentiate and rank the impacts of different wildlife management interventions (for decision-making purposes); 2) identify and evaluate any additional benefits of making formal welfare assessments; and 3) illustrate issues raised by application of the model. We applied the welfare assessment model to interventions commonly used with rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus), moles (Talpa europaea) and crows (Corvus corone) in the UK. The model ranked interventions for rabbits (least impact first: fencing, head shot, chest shot) and crows (shooting, scaring, live trapping with cervical dislocation). For moles, managing molehills and tunnels scored least impact. Both spring trapping, and live trapping followed by translocation, scored greater impacts, but these could not be compared directly as they scored on different axes of the model. Some rankings appeared counter-intuitive, highlighting the need for objective formal welfare assessments. As well as ranking the humaneness of interventions, the model highlighted future research needs and how Standard Operating Procedures might be improved. The model is a milestone in assessing wildlife management welfare impacts, but our research revealed some limitations of the model and we discuss likely challenges in resolving these. In future, the model might be developed to improve its utility, e.g. by refining the time-scales. It might also be used to reach consensus among stakeholders about

  15. Assessing Animal Welfare Impacts in the Management of European Rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus), European Moles (Talpa europaea) and Carrion Crows (Corvus corone)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Sandra E.; Sharp, Trudy M.; Macdonald, David W.

    2016-01-01

    Human-wildlife conflict is a global issue. Attempts to manage this conflict impact upon wild animal welfare, an issue receiving little attention until relatively recently. Where human activities harm animal welfare these effects should be minimised where possible. However, little is known about the welfare impacts of different wildlife management interventions, and opinions on impacts vary widely. Welfare impacts therefore need to be assessed objectively. Our objectives were to: 1) establish whether an existing welfare assessment model could differentiate and rank the impacts of different wildlife management interventions (for decision-making purposes); 2) identify and evaluate any additional benefits of making formal welfare assessments; and 3) illustrate issues raised by application of the model. We applied the welfare assessment model to interventions commonly used with rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus), moles (Talpa europaea) and crows (Corvus corone) in the UK. The model ranked interventions for rabbits (least impact first: fencing, head shot, chest shot) and crows (shooting, scaring, live trapping with cervical dislocation). For moles, managing molehills and tunnels scored least impact. Both spring trapping, and live trapping followed by translocation, scored greater impacts, but these could not be compared directly as they scored on different axes of the model. Some rankings appeared counter-intuitive, highlighting the need for objective formal welfare assessments. As well as ranking the humaneness of interventions, the model highlighted future research needs and how Standard Operating Procedures might be improved. The model is a milestone in assessing wildlife management welfare impacts, but our research revealed some limitations of the model and we discuss likely challenges in resolving these. In future, the model might be developed to improve its utility, e.g. by refining the time-scales. It might also be used to reach consensus among stakeholders about

  16. Assessing Animal Welfare Impacts in the Management of European Rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus, European Moles (Talpa europaea and Carrion Crows (Corvus corone.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandra E Baker

    Full Text Available Human-wildlife conflict is a global issue. Attempts to manage this conflict impact upon wild animal welfare, an issue receiving little attention until relatively recently. Where human activities harm animal welfare these effects should be minimised where possible. However, little is known about the welfare impacts of different wildlife management interventions, and opinions on impacts vary widely. Welfare impacts therefore need to be assessed objectively. Our objectives were to: 1 establish whether an existing welfare assessment model could differentiate and rank the impacts of different wildlife management interventions (for decision-making purposes; 2 identify and evaluate any additional benefits of making formal welfare assessments; and 3 illustrate issues raised by application of the model. We applied the welfare assessment model to interventions commonly used with rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus, moles (Talpa europaea and crows (Corvus corone in the UK. The model ranked interventions for rabbits (least impact first: fencing, head shot, chest shot and crows (shooting, scaring, live trapping with cervical dislocation. For moles, managing molehills and tunnels scored least impact. Both spring trapping, and live trapping followed by translocation, scored greater impacts, but these could not be compared directly as they scored on different axes of the model. Some rankings appeared counter-intuitive, highlighting the need for objective formal welfare assessments. As well as ranking the humaneness of interventions, the model highlighted future research needs and how Standard Operating Procedures might be improved. The model is a milestone in assessing wildlife management welfare impacts, but our research revealed some limitations of the model and we discuss likely challenges in resolving these. In future, the model might be developed to improve its utility, e.g. by refining the time-scales. It might also be used to reach consensus among

  17. Health impact assessment of air pollution using a dynamic exposure profile: Implications for exposure and health impact estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dhondt, Stijn, E-mail: stijn.dhondt@vub.ac.be [Department of Medical Sociology and Health Sciences, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Laarbeeklaan 103, B-1090, Brussels (Belgium); Beckx, Carolien, E-mail: Carolien.Beckx@vito.be [Flemish Institute for Technological Research (VITO), Boeretang 200, 2400 Mol (Belgium); Degraeuwe, Bart, E-mail: Bart.Degraeuwe@vito.be [Flemish Institute for Technological Research (VITO), Boeretang 200, 2400 Mol (Belgium); Lefebvre, Wouter, E-mail: Wouter.Lefebvre@vito.be [Flemish Institute for Technological Research (VITO), Boeretang 200, 2400 Mol (Belgium); Kochan, Bruno, E-mail: Bruno.Kochan@uhasselt.be [Transportation Research Institute, Hasselt University, Wetenschapspark 5 bus 6, 3590 Diepenbeek (Belgium); Bellemans, Tom, E-mail: Tom.Bellemans@uhasselt.be [Transportation Research Institute, Hasselt University, Wetenschapspark 5 bus 6, 3590 Diepenbeek (Belgium); Int Panis, Luc, E-mail: Luc.intpanis@vito.be [Flemish Institute for Technological Research (VITO), Boeretang 200, 2400 Mol (Belgium); Transportation Research Institute, Hasselt University, Wetenschapspark 5 bus 6, 3590 Diepenbeek (Belgium); Macharis, Cathy, E-mail: cjmachar@vub.ac.be [Department MOSI-Transport and Logistics, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Pleinlaan 2, B-1050, Brussels (Belgium); Putman, Koen, E-mail: kputman@vub.ac.be [Department of Medical Sociology and Health Sciences, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Laarbeeklaan 103, B-1090, Brussels (Belgium); Interuniversity Centre for Health Economics Research (I-CHER), Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels (Belgium)

    2012-09-15

    In both ambient air pollution epidemiology and health impact assessment an accurate assessment of the population exposure is crucial. Although considerable advances have been made in assessing human exposure outdoors, the assessments often do not consider the impact of individual travel behavior on such exposures. Population-based exposures to NO{sub 2} and O{sub 3} using only home addresses were compared with models that integrate all time-activity patterns-including time in commute-for Flanders and Brussels. The exposure estimates were used to estimate the air pollution impact on years of life lost due to respiratory mortality. Health impact of NO{sub 2} using an exposure that integrates time-activity information was on average 1.2% higher than when assuming that people are always at their home address. For ozone the overall estimated health impact was 0.8% lower. Local differences could be much larger, with estimates that differ up to 12% from the exposure using residential addresses only. Depending on age and gender, deviations from the population average were seen. Our results showed modest differences on a regional level. At the local level, however, time-activity patterns indicated larger differences in exposure and health impact estimates, mainly for people living in more rural areas. These results suggest that for local analyses the dynamic approach can contribute to an improved assessment of the health impact of various types of pollution and to the understanding of exposure differences between population groups. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Exposure to ambient air pollution was assessed integrating population mobility. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer This dynamic exposure was integrated into a health impact assessment. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Differences between the dynamic and residential exposure were quantified. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Modest differences in health impact were found at a regional level. Black

  18. Evaluating the effectiveness of impact assessment instruments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cashmore, Matthew; Richardson, Tim; Hilding-Ryedvik, Tuija

    2010-01-01

    to sharpen effectiveness evaluation theory for impact assessment instruments this article critically examines the neglected issue of their political constitution. Analytical examples are used to concretely explore the nature and significance of the politicisation of impact assessment. It is argued......The central role of impact assessment instruments globally in policy integration initiatives has been cemented in recent years. Associated with this trend, but also reflecting political emphasis on greater accountability in certain policy sectors and a renewed focus on economic competitiveness...... that raising awareness about the political character of impact assessment instruments, in itself, is a vital step in advancing effectiveness evaluation theory. Broader theoretical lessons on the framing of evaluation research are also drawn from the political analysis. We conclude that, at least within...

  19. Assessing welfare impact of entry into power market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cho, In-Koo; Kim, Hyunsook

    2013-01-01

    This paper calculates the welfare impact of a new entrant based on the location of entry in the Korean electricity market. We use two different models. One is the optimal fuel mix model to estimate the effect of a new entry in the long run. The other is the variable cost minimization model to assess the contribution of an existing installed private generator in the short run. A specific private generator, which has a cost advantage, saves a substantial amount of system-wide variable costs. We show that the right location for a new entrant can save power generation costs significantly, even if a new entrant does not have a cost advantage. - Highlights: • This paper calculates the welfare impact of a new entrant based on the location of entry. • We use two different models to estimate the entry effect. • The minimum and maximum cost savings of a new entrant are about 0.3% and 0.84% of total generation cost. • Even if a new entrant has no cost advantage, its choice of location could save money

  20. Using Lagrangian Chemical Transport Modeling to Assess the Impact of Biomass Burning on Ozone and PM2.5

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alvarado, M. J.; Lonsdale, C. R.; Brodowski, C. M.

    2017-12-01

    One of the challenges of using in situ measurements to study the air quality and climate impacts of biomass burning is correctly determining the contribution of biomass burning sources to the measured ambient concentrations. This is especially important for policy purposes, as the ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) from natural wildfires should not be confused with that from controllable anthropogenic sources. We have developed a Lagrangian chemical transport model called STILT-ASP that is able to quantify the impact of wildfire events on O3 and PM2.5 measurements made at surface monitoring sites, by mobile laboratories, or by aircraft. STILT-ASP is built by coupling the Stochastic Time Inverted Lagrangian Transport (STILT) model with AER's Aerosol Simulation Program (ASP), which has been used in many studies of the gas and aerosol chemistry of biomass burning smoke. Here we present recent revisions made in STILT-ASP v2.0, including the use of more detailed chemical speciation of fire emissions and biogenic emissions calculated using the MEGAN model with meteorological inputs consistent with those used to drive STILT. We will present the results of an evaluation of the performance of STILT-ASP v2.0 using surface, mobile lab, and aircraft data from the 2013 Houston DISCOVER-AQ campaign. STILT-ASP v2.0 showed good average performance for O3 during the peak of the high O3 episodes on Sept. 25-26, 2013, with a mean bias of -4 ppbv. We will also demonstrate the use of STILT-ASP to evaluate the impact of biomass burning on O3 and PM2.5 in urban areas and to assess the impact of remote fires on the boundary conditions used in Eulerian chemical transport models like CAMx.

  1. Public participation in Malawi's environmental impact assessment ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Since the adoption of the Environmental Management Act of 1996, Malawi has been using environmental impact assessment (EIA) as a tool for predicting and assessing the impact of development projects on the environment. This study assessed the extent of public participation in Malawi's EIA process. Desktop study of ...

  2. River modeling and multi-level fish health assessment to evaluate impacts from oil sands water releases (Part 2)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shaw, R.; Swanson, S.M.; Lagimodiere, M.; Gulley, J.

    1995-01-01

    A multi-level, multi-scale approach was used to assess potential impacts to fish health from oil sands water releases. The method used to arrive at predicted impacts involved assembling experimental data on the effects of chronic exposure to oil sands wastewaters on biochemical, physiological and whole-organism endpoint. This information was used to determine no effect levels (NOELs) and lowest effect levels (LOELs) for the suite of fish health parameters used in laboratory experiments (primarily biochemical and physiological measurement endpoints). LOELs and NOELs were compared to modeled concentrations of wastewater in the Athabasca River for five time snapshots. For each time period, concentrations were predicted based on mean annual flows and 7Q10 flows (low flows). This comparison was used to predict impacts on biochemical/physiological endpoints. Impacts on at the whole-organism and population-level were determined by comparing what the laboratory data would predict with what was observed in the field. This process was used to draw a conclusion regarding the health and sustainability of fish populations

  3. Building-related health impacts in European and Chinese cities: a scalable assessment method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuomisto, Jouni T; Niittynen, Marjo; Pärjälä, Erkki; Asikainen, Arja; Perez, Laura; Trüeb, Stephan; Jantunen, Matti; Künzli, Nino; Sabel, Clive E

    2015-12-14

    Public health is often affected by societal decisions that are not primarily about health. Climate change mitigation requires intensive actions to minimise greenhouse gas emissions in the future. Many of these actions take place in cities due to their traffic, buildings, and energy consumption. Active climate mitigation policies will also, aside of their long term global impacts, have short term local impacts, both positive and negative, on public health. Our main objective was to develop a generic open impact model to estimate health impacts of emissions due to heat and power consumption of buildings. In addition, the model should be usable for policy comparisons by non-health experts on city level with city-specific data, it should give guidance on the particular climate mitigation questions but at the same time increase understanding on the related health impacts and the model should follow the building stock in time, make comparisons between scenarios, propagate uncertainties, and scale to different levels of detail. We tested The functionalities of the model in two case cities, namely Kuopio and Basel. We estimated the health and climate impacts of two actual policies planned or implemented in the cities. The assessed policies were replacement of peat with wood chips in co-generation of district heat and power, and improved energy efficiency of buildings achieved by renovations. Health impacts were not large in the two cities, but also clear differences in implementation and predictability between the two tested policies were seen. Renovation policies can improve the energy efficiency of buildings and reduce greenhouse gas emissions significantly, but this requires systematic policy sustained for decades. In contrast, fuel changes in large district heating facilities may have rapid and large impacts on emissions. However, the life cycle impacts of different fuels is somewhat an open question. In conclusion, we were able to develop a practical model for city

  4. Impact assessment at the submergence of radioactive materials during sea transport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsumune, Daisuke; Tsubono, Takaki; Saegusa, Toshiari; Ito, Chihiro

    2009-01-01

    Radioactive materials in Type B package have been transported safely on the sea under INF code and IAEA standard. Environmental and dose impact assessments have been made by assuming that a Type B package might be sunk into the sea since 1970s to enhance public understanding on safety of these transport. A method of the impact assessment consists of the estimation of release rates of radionuclide from a package, simulation of radionuclide concentration both in the coastal and global areas, and estimation of dose assessment for the public. We summarized the radiological impact at the submergence of Type B packages. The evaluated results of the dose equivalents by radiation exposure to the public for all materials were far below the dose equivalent limit of the ICRP recommendation (1mSv year -1 ). These assessments had a lot of uncertainties especially in the simulation of radionuclide concentration therefore the results might be overestimated. Estimations of ocean circulation and diffusion are important in this assessment. Ocean circulation model have been improved to simulate the material transport with higher resolutions. We developed more realistic methods to simulate both in the coastal and global areas to explain the evaluated results of the impacts to the public in an efficient manner. General circulation models around Japan and an ocean general circulation model were employed at the coastal and global areas respectively. It is impossible to validate the method directly because no accidents with release of radionuclide in the ocean have occurred since first sea transport of Type B packages. Therefore we simulated background radionuclide concentrations by fallouts ( 137 Cs) to validate the methods. Fallouts were input into ocean by nuclear weapon test since 1945 and mainly in 1960s. And their concentrations in the ocean have been measured to keep monitoring the artificial contaminations now. Observed database is useful to compare with simulated results in both

  5. The role of stand history in assessing forest impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dale, V.H.; Doyle, T.W.

    1987-01-01

    Air pollution, harvesting practices, and natural disturbances can affect the growth of trees and forest development. To make predictions about anthropogenic impacts on forests, we need to understand how these factors affect tree growth. In this study the effect of disturbance history on tree growth and stand structure was examined by using a computer model of forest development. The model was run under the climatic conditions of east Tennessee, USA, and the results compared to stand structure and tree growth data from a yellow poplar-white oak forest. Basal area growth and forest biomass were more accurately projected when rough approximations of the thinning and fire history typical of the measured plots were included in the simulation model. Stand history can influence tree growth rates and forest structure and should be included in any attempt to assess forest impacts.

  6. Environmental Impact Assessment and Space Activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viikari, L.

    least more open distribution of information about human enterprises in space, too.However, the "public concerned" in space activities may cover the entire humanity, which would most likely direct the possible spatial EIA procedures into the auspices of the UN, with states representing their portion of the "public". Despite the peculiarities in assessing the potential impacts of space activities, Environmental Impact Assessment, modified to answer thes e particular features, would seem as a tool worth considering for the above objectives of enhanced environmental protection and public involvement. This is particularly true, as any adverse environmental impacts of space activities are highly difficult to mitigate, once they have materialized. For the above mentioned reasons, and for the fact that space activities are regulated for a major part on policy level, particularly Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) would seem a viable option. As distinct from the project EIA, the SEA means carrying out EIAs of plans themselves, i.e. it directly addresses the environmental implications of proposed strategies and policies. Formerly, the governmental authorities tended to regard SEA with suspicion because of the public interest groups involvement in policy making that the SEA entails. However, currently the SEA is a highly topical issue in the international arena, particularly because of the ongoing discussions within the United Nations Economic Commision for Europe about adopting a Protocol on Strategic Environmental Assessment to amend the Espoo Convention, and of the recent EU Directive (2001/42/EC) on the assessment of the effects of certain plans and programmes on t he environment. These instruments could also serve as feasible models for SEA in the outer space environment.

  7. A new economic assessment index for the impact of climate change on grain yield

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Wenjie; Chou, Jieming; Feng, Guolin

    2007-03-01

    The impact of climate change on agriculture has received wide attention by the scientific community. This paper studies how to assess the grain yield impact of climate change, according to the climate change over a long time period in the future as predicted by a climate system model. The application of the concept of a traditional “yield impact of meteorological factor (YIMF)” or “yield impact of weather factor” to the grain yield assessment of a decadal or even a longer timescale would be suffocated at the outset because the YIMF is for studying the phenomenon on an interannual timescale, and it is difficult to distinguish between the trend caused by climate change and the one resulting from changes in non-climatic factors. Therefore, the concept of the yield impact of climatic change (YICC), which is defined as the difference in the per unit area yields (PUAY) of a grain crop under a changing and an envisaged invariant climate conditions, is presented in this paper to assess the impact of global climate change on grain yields. The climatic factor has been introduced into the renowned economic Cobb-Douglas model, yielding a quantitative assessment method of YICC using real data. The method has been tested using the historical data of Northeast China, and the results show that it has an encouraging application outlook.

  8. A New Economic Assessment Index for the Impact of Climate Change on Grain Yield

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    The impact of climate change on agriculture has received wide attention by the scientific community.This paper studies how to assess the grain yield impact of climate change, according to the climate change over a long time period in the future as predicted by a climate system model. The application of the concept of a traditional "yield impact of meteorological factor (YIMF)" or "yield impact of weather factor" to the grain yield assessment of a decadal or even a longer timescale would be suffocated at the outset because the YIMF is for studying the phenomenon on an interannual timescale, and it is difficult to distinguish between the trend caused by climate change and the one resulting from changes in non-climatic factors. Therefore,the concept of the yield impact of climatic change (YICC), which is defined as the difference in the per unit area yields (PUAY) of a grain crop under a changing and an envisaged invariant climate conditions, is presented in this paper to assess the impact of global climate change on grain yields. The climatic factor has been introduced into the renowned economic Cobb-Douglas model, yielding a quantitative assessment method of YICC using real data. The method has been tested using the historical data of Northeast China,and the results show that it has an encouraging application outlook.

  9. Modelling the Loktak Lake Basin to Assess Human Impact on Water Resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eliza, K.

    2015-12-01

    Loktak Lake is an internationally important, Ramsar designated, fresh water wetland system in the state of Manipur, India. The lake was also listed under Montreux Record on account of the ecological modifications that the lake system has witnessed over time. A characteristic feature of this lake is the extensive occurrence of coalesced, naturally or otherwise, vegetative masses floating over it. A contiguous 40 km2 area of Phumdis, as these vegetative masses are locally referred to, also constitutes the only natural home of the endemic and endangered species of Manipur's brow-antlered deer popularly known as Sangai. Appropriately notified as Keibul Lamjao National Park by Government of India, this natural feature is known to be the world's largest floating park. Water quality and sediment deposition on account of soil erosion in its catchments are some of the emerging concerns along with a reported enhanced frequency and duration of flooding of the shore areas, reduced fish catch within a visibly deteriorated overall natural ecosystem. Disturbances of watershed processes, command area management practices, ineffective as indeed largely absent, waste management practices and management interventions linked to the Loktak Hydroelectric Project are often cited as the principal triggers that are seen to be responsible for the damage. An effective management protocol for the Lake requires a rigorous understanding of its hydrobiology and eco-hydrodynamics. The present study is carried out to establish such a characterization of the various rivers systems draining directly into the Lake using MIKE SHE, MIKE 11 HD and MIKE 11 ECO Lab modelling platforms. Water quality modelling was limited to dissolved oxygen (DO), biological oxygen demand (BOD) and water temperature. Model calibration was done using the available measured water quality data. The derived results were then investigated for causal correlation with anthropogenic influences to assess human impact on water

  10. Impacts of Participatory Modeling on Climate Change-related Water Management Impacts in Sonora, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halvorsen, K. E.; Kossak, D. J.; Mayer, A. S.; Vivoni, E. R.; Robles-Morua, A.; Gamez Molina, V.; Dana, K.; Mirchi, A.

    2013-12-01

    Climate change-related impacts on water resources are expected to be particularly severe in the arid developing world. As a result, we conducted a series of participatory modeling workshops on hydrologic and water resources systems modeling in the face of climate change in Sonora, Mexico. Pre-surveys were administered to participants on Day 1 of a series of four workshops spaced out over three months in 2013. Post-surveys repeated many pre-survey questions and included questions assessing the quality of the workshops and models. We report on significant changes in participant perceptions of water resource models and problems and their assessment of the workshops. These findings will be of great value to future participatory modeling efforts, particularly within the developing world.

  11. Modeling inputs to computer models used in risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iman, R.L.

    1987-01-01

    Computer models for various risk assessment applications are closely scrutinized both from the standpoint of questioning the correctness of the underlying mathematical model with respect to the process it is attempting to model and from the standpoint of verifying that the computer model correctly implements the underlying mathematical model. A process that receives less scrutiny, but is nonetheless of equal importance, concerns the individual and joint modeling of the inputs. This modeling effort clearly has a great impact on the credibility of results. Model characteristics are reviewed in this paper that have a direct bearing on the model input process and reasons are given for using probabilities-based modeling with the inputs. The authors also present ways to model distributions for individual inputs and multivariate input structures when dependence and other constraints may be present

  12. A mathematical model for environmental risk assessment in manufacturing industry

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    何莉萍; 徐盛明; 陈大川; 党创寅

    2002-01-01

    Environmental conscious manufacturing has become an important issue in industry because of market pressure and environmental regulations. An environmental risk assessment model was developed based on the network analytic method and fuzzy set theory. The "interval analysis method" was applied to deal with the on-site monitoring data as basic information for assessment. In addition, the fuzzy set theory was employed to allow uncertain, interactive and dynamic information to be effectively incorporated into the environmental risk assessment. This model is a simple, practical and effective tool for evaluating the environmental risk of manufacturing industry and for analyzing the relative impacts of emission wastes, which are hazardous to both human and ecosystem health. Furthermore, the model is considered useful for design engineers and decision-maker to design and select processes when the costs, environmental impacts and performances of a product are taken into consideration.

  13. A Review of Cogent Reflection on the Economic Impact Assessment of Conferences – MICE Tourism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kumar J.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available MICE tourism has grown into an important economic sector in many places, and it is quite easy to understand the relevancy of estimating the economic impact of business tourists on the local and regional economies. Several industrial and academic researches has mentioned many methods for economic impact studies (direct, indirect and induced impacts of the conference - MICE tourism related events. Of these, the input-output (I-O model and general equilibrium models (REMI and REM II are widely used for the economic impact assessments. The current paper will review economic impact studies in the c conference - MICE tourism related events and then discusses the issues related to the I-O model and general equilibrium models framework

  14. Assessing climate change impacts on water balance in the Mount

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    A statistical downscaling known for producing station-scale climate information from GCM output was preferred to evaluate the impacts of climate change within the Mount Makiling forest watershed, Philippines. The lumped hydrologic BROOK90 model was utilized for the water balance assessment of climate change ...

  15. Planning Environmental Impact Assessment Orienting Sustainable Development:Opportunities and Challenges

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Sun Yanjun; Chen Xingeng; Bao Yun; Peng Xiaochun; Gao Changbo

    2005-01-01

    Strategic Environmental Assessment is a frontier subject in the field of Environmental Impact Assessment. In the past two decades, especially in recent years, much more importance has been attached to Strategic Environmental Assessment. The Environmental Impact Assessment Law of the P.R.China which was promulgated provides a great opportunity for the development of Planning Environmental Impact Assessment and brings great challenges for the development of traditional Project Environmental Impact Assessment and Planning Environmental Impact Assessment at the same time.In order to promote the implementation of"The EIA Law", the inherent limitations of Project Environmental Impact Assessment must be identified sufficiendy and the theory research and practice of Planning Environmental Impact Assessment should be strengthened as well. Measures should be taken currendy to enforce the operation system. The authors wish to offer a few references to the progress and implementation of Planning Environmental Impact Assessment in China.

  16. Assessment of land use impact on water-related ecosystem services capturing the integrated terrestrial-aquatic system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maes, Wouter H; Heuvelmans, Griet; Muys, Bart

    2009-10-01

    Although the importance of green (evaporative) water flows in delivering ecosystem services has been recognized, most operational impact assessment methods still focus only on blue water flows. In this paper, we present a new model to evaluate the effect of land use occupation and transformation on water quantity. Conceptually based on the supply of ecosystem services by terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, the model is developed for, but not limited to, land use impact assessment in life cycle assessment (LCA) and requires a minimum amount of input data. Impact is minimal when evapotranspiration is equal to that of the potential natural vegetation, and maximal when evapotranspiration is zero or when it exceeds a threshold value derived from the concept of environmental water requirement. Three refinements to the model, requiring more input data, are proposed. The first refinement considers a minimal impact over a certain range based on the boundary evapotranspiration of the potential natural vegetation. In the second refinement the effects of evaporation and transpiration are accounted for separately, and in the third refinement a more correct estimate of evaporation from a fully sealed surface is incorporated. The simplicity and user friendliness of the proposed impact assessment method are illustrated with two examples.

  17. Modelling climate impact on floods under future emission scenarios using an ensemble of climate model projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wetterhall, F.; Cloke, H. L.; He, Y.; Freer, J.; Pappenberger, F.

    2012-04-01

    Evidence provided by modelled assessments of climate change impact on flooding is fundamental to water resource and flood risk decision making. Impact models usually rely on climate projections from Global and Regional Climate Models, and there is no doubt that these provide a useful assessment of future climate change. However, cascading ensembles of climate projections into impact models is not straightforward because of problems of coarse resolution in Global and Regional Climate Models (GCM/RCM) and the deficiencies in modelling high-intensity precipitation events. Thus decisions must be made on how to appropriately pre-process the meteorological variables from GCM/RCMs, such as selection of downscaling methods and application of Model Output Statistics (MOS). In this paper a grand ensemble of projections from several GCM/RCM are used to drive a hydrological model and analyse the resulting future flood projections for the Upper Severn, UK. The impact and implications of applying MOS techniques to precipitation as well as hydrological model parameter uncertainty is taken into account. The resultant grand ensemble of future river discharge projections from the RCM/GCM-hydrological model chain is evaluated against a response surface technique combined with a perturbed physics experiment creating a probabilisic ensemble climate model outputs. The ensemble distribution of results show that future risk of flooding in the Upper Severn increases compared to present conditions, however, the study highlights that the uncertainties are large and that strong assumptions were made in using Model Output Statistics to produce the estimates of future discharge. The importance of analysing on a seasonal basis rather than just annual is highlighted. The inability of the RCMs (and GCMs) to produce realistic precipitation patterns, even in present conditions, is a major caveat of local climate impact studies on flooding, and this should be a focus for future development.

  18. A time dependent zonally averaged energy balance model to be incorporated into IMAGE (Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect). Collaborative Paper

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jonas, M.; Olendrzynski, K.; Elzen, M. den

    1991-10-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is placing increasing emphasis on the use of time-dependent impact models that are linked with energy-emission accounting frameworks and models that predict in a time-dependent fashion important variables such as atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, surface temperature and precipitation. Integrating these tools (greenhouse gas emission strategies, atmospheric processes, ecological impacts) into what is called an integrated assessment model will assist policymakers in the IPCC and elsewhere to assess the impacts of a wide variety of emission strategies. The Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect (IMAGE; developed at RIVM) represents such an integrated assessment model which already calculates historical and future effects of greenhouse gas emissions on global surface temperature, sea level rise and other ecological and socioeconomic impacts. However, to be linked to environmental impact models such as the Global Vegetation Model and the Timber Assessment Model, both of which are under development at RIVM and IIASA, IMAGE needs to be regionalized in terms of temperature and precipitation output. These key parameters will then enable the above environmental impact models to be run in a time-dependent mode. In this paper we lay the scientific and numerical basis for a two-dimensional Energy Balance Model (EBM) to be integrated into the climate module of IMAGE which will ultimately provide scenarios of surface temperature and precipitation, resolved with respect to latitude and height. This paper will deal specifically with temperature; following papers will deal with precipitation. So far, the relatively simple EBM set up in this paper resolves mean annual surface temperatures on a regional scale defined by 10 deg latitude bands. In addition, we can concentrate on the implementation of the EBM into IMAGE, i.e., on the steering mechanism itself. Both reasons justify the time and effort put into

  19. Interactive Rapid Dose Assessment Model (IRDAM): user's guide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poeton, R.W.; Moeller, M.P.; Laughlin, G.J.; Desrosiers, A.E.

    1983-05-01

    As part of the continuing emphasis on emergency preparedness the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) sponsored the development of a rapid dose assessment system by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL). This system, the Interactive Rapid Dose Assessment Model (IRDAM) is a micro-computer based program for rapidly assessing the radiological impact of accidents at nuclear power plants. This User's Guide provides instruction in the setup and operation of the equipment necessary to run IRDAM. Instructions are also given on how to load the magnetic disks and access the interactive part of the program. Two other companion volumes to this one provide additional information on IRDAM. Reactor Accident Assessment Methods (NUREG/CR-3012, Volume 2) describes the technical bases for IRDAM including methods, models and assumptions used in calculations. Scenarios for Comparing Dose Assessment Models (NUREG/CR-3012, Volume 3) provides the results of calculations made by IRDAM and other models for specific accident scenarios

  20. Introducing Life Cycle Impact Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hauschild, Michael Zwicky; Huijbregts, Mark AJ

    2015-01-01

    This chapter serves as an introduction to the presentation of the many aspects of life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) in this volume of the book series ‘LCA Compendium’. It starts with a brief historical overview of the development of life cycle impact assessment driven by numerous national LCIA...... methodology projects and presents the international scientific discussions and methodological consensus attempts in consecutive working groups under the auspices of the Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC) as well as the UNEP/ SETAC Life Cycle Initiative, and the (almost) parallel...

  1. Impact of Model Detail of Synchronous Machines on Real-time Transient Stability Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Weckesser, Johannes Tilman Gabriel; Jóhannsson, Hjörtur; Østergaard, Jacob

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, it is investigated how detailed the model of a synchronous machine needs to be in order to assess transient stability using a Single Machine Equivalent (SIME). The results will show how the stability mechanism and the stability assessment are affected by the model detail. In order...... of the machine models is varied. Analyses of the results suggest that a 4th-order model may be sufficient to represent synchronous machines in transient stability studies....

  2. An Update of the Analytical Groundwater Modeling to Assess Water Resource Impacts at the Afton Solar Energy Zone

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Quinn, John J. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Greer, Christopher B. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Carr, Adrianne E. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

    2014-10-01

    The purpose of this study is to update a one-dimensional analytical groundwater flow model to examine the influence of potential groundwater withdrawal in support of utility-scale solar energy development at the Afton Solar Energy Zone (SEZ) as a part of the Bureau of Land Management’s (BLM’s) Solar Energy Program. This report describes the modeling for assessing the drawdown associated with SEZ groundwater pumping rates for a 20-year duration considering three categories of water demand (high, medium, and low) based on technology-specific considerations. The 2012 modeling effort published in the Final Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement for Solar Energy Development in Six Southwestern States (Solar PEIS; BLM and DOE 2012) has been refined based on additional information described below in an expanded hydrogeologic discussion.

  3. Assessment of the impacts of the French nuclear program on the environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Naudet, G.

    1994-01-01

    This paper is an assessment of the impact of the French nuclear program on investments, on electricity price, on electricity and energy demand and especially on environment. The impact on atmosphere pollution which is based on a macro economic long term model (called MELODY), particularly detailed for the energy sector, is outlined. (TEC). 10 figs., 1 tab., 4 refs

  4. Review on Suitability of Available LCIA Methodologies for Assessing Environmental Impact of the Food Sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pegah Amani

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Production, processing, distribution, and consumption of a wide variety of products in the food sector have different ranges of environmental impacts. Methodologies used in environmental impact assessment differ in which set of impact categories is covered and which models are used to assess them. In the food sector, life cycle assessment results are mostly presented without any clear distinction of the principles applied to selecting the relevant methodology. In this paper, the most relevant life cycle impact assessment methodologies are determined from the list of recommended methodologies published recently in the international reference life cycle data system (ILCD handbook. The range of the relevant impacts covered is considered as the main indicator decisive in selecting a methodology. The selection of the relevant set of impact categories is performed through an overview of more than 50 recent LCA case studies of different products in the sector. The result of the research is a short list of three LCIA methodologies recommended to be used for environmental impact assessment of products in the food sector.

  5. Land use allocation model considering climate change impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, D. K.; Yoon, E. J.; Song, Y. I.

    2017-12-01

    In Korea, climate change adaptation plans are being developed for each administrative district based on impact assessments constructed in various fields. This climate change impact assessments are superimposed on the actual space, which causes problems in land use allocation because the spatial distribution of individual impacts may be different each other. This implies that trade-offs between climate change impacts can occur depending on the composition of land use. Moreover, the actual space is complexly intertwined with various factors such as required area, legal regulations, and socioeconomic values, so land use allocation in consideration of climate change can be very difficult problem to solve (Liu et al. 2012; Porta et al. 2013).Optimization techniques can generate a sufficiently good alternatives for land use allocation at the strategic level if only the fitness function of relationship between impact and land use composition are derived. It has also been noted that land use optimization model is more effective than the scenario-based prediction model in achieving the objectives for problem solving (Zhang et al. 2014). Therefore in this study, we developed a quantitative tool, MOGA (Multi Objective Genetic Algorithm), which can generate a comprehensive land use allocations considering various climate change impacts, and apply it to the Gangwon-do in Korea. Genetic Algorithms (GAs) are the most popular optimization technique to address multi-objective in land use allocation. Also, it allows for immediate feedback to stake holders because it can run a number of experiments with different parameter values. And it is expected that land use decision makers and planners can formulate a detailed spatial plan or perform additional analysis based on the result of optimization model. Acknowledgments: This work was supported by the Korea Ministry of Environment (MOE) as "Climate Change Correspondence Program (Project number: 2014001310006)"

  6. Current use of impact models for agri-environment schemes and potential for improvements of policy design and assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Primdahl, Jørgen; Vesterager, Jens Peter; Finn, John A; Vlahos, George; Kristensen, Lone; Vejre, Henrik

    2010-06-01

    Agri-Environment Schemes (AES) to maintain or promote environmentally-friendly farming practices were implemented on about 25% of all agricultural land in the EU by 2002. This article analyses and discusses the actual and potential use of impact models in supporting the design, implementation and evaluation of AES. Impact models identify and establish the causal relationships between policy objectives and policy outcomes. We review and discuss the role of impact models at different stages in the AES policy process, and present results from a survey of impact models underlying 60 agri-environmental schemes in seven EU member states. We distinguished among three categories of impact models (quantitative, qualitative or common sense), depending on the degree of evidence in the formal scheme description, additional documents, or key person interviews. The categories of impact models used mainly depended on whether scheme objectives were related to natural resources, biodiversity or landscape. A higher proportion of schemes dealing with natural resources (primarily water) were based on quantitative impact models, compared to those concerned with biodiversity or landscape. Schemes explicitly targeted either on particular parts of individual farms or specific areas tended to be based more on quantitative impact models compared to whole-farm schemes and broad, horizontal schemes. We conclude that increased and better use of impact models has significant potential to improve efficiency and effectiveness of AES. (c) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Parameter variation and scenario analysis in impact assessments of emerging energy technologies

    OpenAIRE

    Breunig, Hanna Marie

    2015-01-01

    There is a global need for energy technologies that reduce the adverse impacts of societal progress and that address today's challenges without creating tomorrow's problems. Life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) can support technology developers in achieving these prerequisites of sustainability by providing a systems perspective. However, modeling the early-stage scale up and impacts of technology systems may lead to unreliable or incomplete results due to a lack of representative technical, s...

  8. Radiation environmental impact assessment of copper exploitation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fan Guang; Wen Zhijian

    2010-01-01

    The radiation environmental impact of mineral exploitation on the surrounding environment has become a public concern. This paper presents the radiation environmental impact assessment of copper exploitation. Based on the project description and detailed investigations of surrounding environment, systematic radiation environmental impacts have been identified. The environmental impacts are assessed during both construction and operation phase. The environmental protection measures have also been proposed. The related conclusion and measures can play an active role in copper exploitation and environmental protection. (authors)

  9. Designing ecological climate change impact assessments to reflect key climatic drivers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sofaer, Helen R; Barsugli, Joseph J; Jarnevich, Catherine S; Abatzoglou, John T; Talbert, Marian K; Miller, Brian W; Morisette, Jeffrey T

    2017-07-01

    Identifying the climatic drivers of an ecological system is a key step in assessing its vulnerability to climate change. The climatic dimensions to which a species or system is most sensitive - such as means or extremes - can guide methodological decisions for projections of ecological impacts and vulnerabilities. However, scientific workflows for combining climate projections with ecological models have received little explicit attention. We review Global Climate Model (GCM) performance along different dimensions of change and compare frameworks for integrating GCM output into ecological models. In systems sensitive to climatological means, it is straightforward to base ecological impact assessments on mean projected changes from several GCMs. Ecological systems sensitive to climatic extremes may benefit from what we term the 'model space' approach: a comparison of ecological projections based on simulated climate from historical and future time periods. This approach leverages the experimental framework used in climate modeling, in which historical climate simulations serve as controls for future projections. Moreover, it can capture projected changes in the intensity and frequency of climatic extremes, rather than assuming that future means will determine future extremes. Given the recent emphasis on the ecological impacts of climatic extremes, the strategies we describe will be applicable across species and systems. We also highlight practical considerations for the selection of climate models and data products, emphasizing that the spatial resolution of the climate change signal is generally coarser than the grid cell size of downscaled climate model output. Our review illustrates how an understanding of how climate model outputs are derived and downscaled can improve the selection and application of climatic data used in ecological modeling. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  10. Assessment of the impact of frequency support on DFIG wind turbine loads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barahona Garzón, Braulio; You, Rui; Hansen, Anca Daniela

    2013-01-01

    This study presents models and tools for the assessment of the impact that providing frequency support has on doubly-fed generator (DFIG) wind turbine structural loads and drive train. The focus is on primary frequency support, aiming at quantifying the impact on wind turbines acting as frequency...... code and electrical models. In this simulation framework, the impact that power system conditions can have on wind turbines, and vice versa the support that wind turbines can offer to the power system can be investigated....... containment reserve and providing inertial response. The sensitivity of wind turbine load indicators—load duration- distribution and maximum load values—to inertial response control actions and different torsional models of drive train is investigated. The analysis is done by co-simulations of an aeroelastic...

  11. Hurricane Sandy Economic Impacts Assessment: A Computable General Equilibrium Approach and Validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boero, Riccardo [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Edwards, Brian Keith [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2017-08-07

    Economists use computable general equilibrium (CGE) models to assess how economies react and self-organize after changes in policies, technology, and other exogenous shocks. CGE models are equation-based, empirically calibrated, and inspired by Neoclassical economic theory. The focus of this work was to validate the National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC) CGE model and apply it to the problem of assessing the economic impacts of severe events. We used the 2012 Hurricane Sandy event as our validation case. In particular, this work first introduces the model and then describes the validation approach and the empirical data available for studying the event of focus. Shocks to the model are then formalized and applied. Finally, model results and limitations are presented and discussed, pointing out both the model degree of accuracy and the assessed total damage caused by Hurricane Sandy.

  12. User Guide for the International Jobs and Economic Development Impacts Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keyser, David [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Flores-Espino, Francisco [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Uriarte, Caroline [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Cox, Sadie [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2016-09-01

    The International Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (I-JEDI) model is a freely available economic model that estimates gross economic impacts from wind, solar, and geothermal energy projects for several different countries. Building on the original JEDI model, which was developed for the United States, I-JEDI was developed under the USAID Enhancing Capacity for Low Emission Development Strategies (EC-LEDS) program to support countries in assessing economic impacts of LEDS actions in the energy sector. I-JEDI estimates economic impacts by characterizing the construction and operation of energy projects in terms of expenditures and the portion of these expenditures made within the country of analysis. These data are then used in a country-specific input-output (I-O) model to estimate employment, earnings, gross domestic product (GDP), and gross output impacts. Total economic impacts are presented as well as impacts by industry. This user guide presents general information about how to use I-JEDI and interpret results as well as detailed information about methodology and model limitations.

  13. A Framework for Assessing the Impacts of Mining Development on Regional Water Resources in Colombia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neil McIntyre

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Developing its large-scale mining industry is an economic priority for Colombia. However, national capacity to assess and manage the water resource impacts of mining is currently limited. This includes lack of baseline data, lack of suitable hydrological models and lack of frameworks for evaluating risks. Furthermore, public opposition to large scale mining is high and is a barrier to many proposed new mining projects mainly because of concerns about impacts on water resources. There are also concerns about impacts on the uplands that are important water sources, particularly the páramo ecosystem. This paper argues the case for a new framework for Strategic Assessment of Regional Water Impacts of Mining, aiming to support land use planning decisions by government for selected mining and prospective mining regions. The proposed framework is modelled on the Australian Government’s Bioregional Assessments program, converted into seven stages plus supporting activities that meet the Colombian development context. The seven stages are: (1 Contextual information; (2 Scenario definition; (3 Risk scoping; (4 Model development; (5 Risk analysis; (6 Database development; and (7 Dissemination by government to stakeholders including the general public. It is emphasised that the process and results should be transparent, the data and models publicly accessible, and dissemination aimed at all levels of expertise.

  14. Binary logistic regression-Instrument for assessing museum indoor air impact on exhibits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bucur, Elena; Danet, Andrei Florin; Lehr, Carol Blaziu; Lehr, Elena; Nita-Lazar, Mihai

    2017-04-01

    This paper presents a new way to assess the environmental impact on historical artifacts using binary logistic regression. The prediction of the impact on the exhibits during certain pollution scenarios (environmental impact) was calculated by a mathematical model based on the binary logistic regression; it allows the identification of those environmental parameters from a multitude of possible parameters with a significant impact on exhibitions and ranks them according to their severity effect. Air quality (NO 2 , SO 2 , O 3 and PM 2.5 ) and microclimate parameters (temperature, humidity) monitoring data from a case study conducted within exhibition and storage spaces of the Romanian National Aviation Museum Bucharest have been used for developing and validating the binary logistic regression method and the mathematical model. The logistic regression analysis was used on 794 data combinations (715 to develop of the model and 79 to validate it) by a Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS 20.0). The results from the binary logistic regression analysis demonstrated that from six parameters taken into consideration, four of them present a significant effect upon exhibits in the following order: O 3 >PM 2.5 >NO 2 >humidity followed at a significant distance by the effects of SO 2 and temperature. The mathematical model, developed in this study, correctly predicted 95.1 % of the cumulated effect of the environmental parameters upon the exhibits. Moreover, this model could also be used in the decisional process regarding the preventive preservation measures that should be implemented within the exhibition space. The paper presents a new way to assess the environmental impact on historical artifacts using binary logistic regression. The mathematical model developed on the environmental parameters analyzed by the binary logistic regression method could be useful in a decision-making process establishing the best measures for pollution reduction and preventive

  15. Integrated assessment models of global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parson, E.A.; Fisher-Vanden, K.

    1997-01-01

    The authors review recent work in the integrated assessment modeling of global climate change. This field has grown rapidly since 1990. Integrated assessment models seek to combine knowledge from multiple disciplines in formal integrated representations; inform policy-making, structure knowledge, and prioritize key uncertainties; and advance knowledge of broad system linkages and feedbacks, particularly between socio-economic and bio-physical processes. They may combine simplified representations of the socio-economic determinants of greenhouse gas emissions, the atmosphere and oceans, impacts on human activities and ecosystems, and potential policies and responses. The authors summarize current projects, grouping them according to whether they emphasize the dynamics of emissions control and optimal policy-making, uncertainty, or spatial detail. They review the few significant insights that have been claimed from work to date and identify important challenges for integrated assessment modeling in its relationships to disciplinary knowledge and to broader assessment seeking to inform policy- and decision-making. 192 refs., 2 figs

  16. A state-of-the-art methodology for impact assessment of covered uranium mill tailings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mallants, D.; Dierckx, A.; Wang, L.; Volckaert, G.; Zeevaert, Th.

    2002-01-01

    An impact assessment methodology is being developed that integrates several advanced modelling and characterisation techniques for the purpose of assessing the current and future environmental and health impact of a surface repository containing wastes from uranium milling and radium processing. The former radium processing plant at Olen, Belgium, accumulated during nearly half a century considerable amounts of radium-containing wastes. Also present at the site are uranium mill tailings. These wastes were disposed of in a heavily engineered surface repository at the occasion of a remediation plan carried out in the mid eighties. The repository contains several concrete bunkers covered with a multi-layer hydraulic barrier. In the current impact assessment study the only exposure pathway discussed is by contamination of groundwater. For this purpose we calculated variably-saturated water flow in the multi-layer barrier and the underlying waste zones and used geochemical modelling to estimate the chemical species and their solubility's in the aqueous phase of the various waste forms. The assessment further includes modelling of contaminant leaching from the tailings towards the groundwater, contaminant transport in the surrounding groundwater towards a water well, and evaluation of the doses for ingestion, inhalation and external irradiation resulting from use of groundwater from the well. Details of the waste and site characterisation as well as contaminant modelling are discussed. (author)

  17. A New High Resolution Climate Dataset for Climate Change Impacts Assessments in New England

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komurcu, M.; Huber, M.

    2016-12-01

    Assessing regional impacts of climate change (such as changes in extreme events, land surface hydrology, water resources, energy, ecosystems and economy) requires much higher resolution climate variables than those available from global model projections. While it is possible to run global models in higher resolution, the high computational cost associated with these simulations prevent their use in such manner. To alleviate this problem, dynamical downscaling offers a method to deliver higher resolution climate variables. As part of an NSF EPSCoR funded interdisciplinary effort to assess climate change impacts on New Hampshire ecosystems, hydrology and economy (the New Hampshire Ecosystems and Society project), we create a unique high-resolution climate dataset for New England. We dynamically downscale global model projections under a high impact emissions scenario using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) with three nested grids of 27, 9 and 3 km horizontal resolution with the highest resolution innermost grid focusing over New England. We prefer dynamical downscaling over other methods such as statistical downscaling because it employs physical equations to progressively simulate climate variables as atmospheric processes interact with surface processes, emissions, radiation, clouds, precipitation and other model components, hence eliminates fix relationships between variables. In addition to simulating mean changes in regional climate, dynamical downscaling also allows for the simulation of climate extremes that significantly alter climate change impacts. We simulate three time slices: 2006-2015, 2040-2060 and 2080-2100. This new high-resolution climate dataset (with more than 200 variables saved in hourly (six hourly) intervals for the highest resolution domain (outer two domains)) along with model input and restart files used in our WRF simulations will be publicly available for use to the broader scientific community to support in-depth climate

  18. Aerosol cluster impact and break-up: model and implementation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lechman, Jeremy B.

    2010-01-01

    In this report a model for simulating aerosol cluster impact with rigid walls is presented. The model is based on JKR adhesion theory and is implemented as an enhancement to the granular (DEM) package within the LAMMPS code. The theory behind the model is outlined and preliminary results are shown. Modeling the interactions of small particles is relevant to a number of applications (e.g., soils, powders, colloidal suspensions, etc.). Modeling the behavior of aerosol particles during agglomeration and cluster dynamics upon impact with a wall is of particular interest. In this report we describe preliminary efforts to develop and implement physical models for aerosol particle interactions. Future work will consist of deploying these models to simulate aerosol cluster behavior upon impact with a rigid wall for the purpose of developing relationships for impact speed and probability of stick/bounce/break-up as well as to assess the distribution of cluster sizes if break-up occurs. These relationships will be developed consistent with the need for inputs into system-level codes. Section 2 gives background and details on the physical model as well as implementations issues. Section 3 presents some preliminary results which lead to discussion in Section 4 of future plans.

  19. Methods for land use impact assessment: A review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perminova, Tataina; Sirina, Natalia; Laratte, Bertrand; Baranovskaya, Natalia; Rikhvanov, Leonid

    2016-01-01

    Many types of methods to assess land use impact have been developed. Nevertheless a systematic synthesis of all these approaches is necessary to highlight the most commonly used and most effective methods. Given the growing interest in this area of research, a review of the different methods of assessing land use impact (LUI) was performed using bibliometric analysis. One hundred eighty seven articles of agricultural and biological science, and environmental sciences were examined. According to our results, the most frequently used land use assessment methods are Life-Cycle Assessment, Material Flow Analysis/Input–Output Analysis, Environmental Impact Assessment and Ecological Footprint. Comparison of the methods allowed their specific features to be identified and to arrive at the conclusion that a combination of several methods is the best basis for a comprehensive analysis of land use impact assessment. - Highlights: • We identified the most frequently used methods in land use impact assessment. • A comparison of the methods based on several criteria was carried out. • Agricultural land use is by far the most common area of study within the methods. • Incentive driven methods, like LCA, arouse the most interest in this field.

  20. Methods for land use impact assessment: A review

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Perminova, Tataina, E-mail: tatiana.perminova@utt.fr [Research Centre for Environmental Studies and Sustainability, University of Technology of Troyes, CNRS UMR 6281, 12 Rue Marie Curie CS 42060, F-10004 Troyes Cedex (France); Department of Geoecology and Geochemistry, Institute of Natural Resources, National Research Tomsk Polytechnic University, 30 Lenin Avenue, 634050 Tomsk (Russian Federation); Sirina, Natalia, E-mail: natalia.sirina@utt.fr [Research Centre for Environmental Studies and Sustainability, University of Technology of Troyes, CNRS UMR 6281, 12 Rue Marie Curie CS 42060, F-10004 Troyes Cedex (France); Laratte, Bertrand, E-mail: bertrand.laratte@utt.fr [Research Centre for Environmental Studies and Sustainability, University of Technology of Troyes, CNRS UMR 6281, 12 Rue Marie Curie CS 42060, F-10004 Troyes Cedex (France); Baranovskaya, Natalia, E-mail: natalya.baranovs@mail.ru [Department of Geoecology and Geochemistry, Institute of Natural Resources, National Research Tomsk Polytechnic University, 30 Lenin Avenue, 634050 Tomsk (Russian Federation); Rikhvanov, Leonid, E-mail: rikhvanov@tpu.ru [Department of Geoecology and Geochemistry, Institute of Natural Resources, National Research Tomsk Polytechnic University, 30 Lenin Avenue, 634050 Tomsk (Russian Federation)

    2016-09-15

    Many types of methods to assess land use impact have been developed. Nevertheless a systematic synthesis of all these approaches is necessary to highlight the most commonly used and most effective methods. Given the growing interest in this area of research, a review of the different methods of assessing land use impact (LUI) was performed using bibliometric analysis. One hundred eighty seven articles of agricultural and biological science, and environmental sciences were examined. According to our results, the most frequently used land use assessment methods are Life-Cycle Assessment, Material Flow Analysis/Input–Output Analysis, Environmental Impact Assessment and Ecological Footprint. Comparison of the methods allowed their specific features to be identified and to arrive at the conclusion that a combination of several methods is the best basis for a comprehensive analysis of land use impact assessment. - Highlights: • We identified the most frequently used methods in land use impact assessment. • A comparison of the methods based on several criteria was carried out. • Agricultural land use is by far the most common area of study within the methods. • Incentive driven methods, like LCA, arouse the most interest in this field.

  1. A Framework for the Assessment of Research and Its Impacts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cinzia Daraio

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a holistic framework for the development of models for the assessment of research activities and their impacts. It distinguishes three dimensions, including in an original way, data as a main dimension, together with theory and methodology. Each dimension of the framework is further characterized by three main building blocks: education, research, and innovation (theory; efficiency, effectiveness, and impact (methodology; and availability, interoperability, and “unit-free” property (data. The different dimensions and their nine constituent building blocks are attributes of an overarching concept, denoted as “quality.” Three additional quality attributes are identified as implementation factors (tailorability, transparency, and openness and three “enabling” conditions (convergence, mixed methods, and knowledge infrastructures complete the framework. A framework is required to develop models of metrics. Models of metrics are necessary to assess the meaning, validity, and robustness of metrics. The proposed framework can be a useful reference for the development of the ethics of research evaluation. It can act as a common denominator for different analytical levels and relevant aspects and is able to embrace many different and heterogeneous streams of literature. Directions for future research are provided.

  2. Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Wildfire Exposure in Mediterranean Areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lozano, Olga M; Salis, Michele; Ager, Alan A; Arca, Bachisio; Alcasena, Fermin J; Monteiro, Antonio T; Finney, Mark A; Del Giudice, Liliana; Scoccimarro, Enrico; Spano, Donatella

    2017-10-01

    We used simulation modeling to assess potential climate change impacts on wildfire exposure in Italy and Corsica (France). Weather data were obtained from a regional climate model for the period 1981-2070 using the IPCC A1B emissions scenario. Wildfire simulations were performed with the minimum travel time fire spread algorithm using predicted fuel moisture, wind speed, and wind direction to simulate expected changes in weather for three climatic periods (1981-2010, 2011-2040, and 2041-2070). Overall, the wildfire simulations showed very slight changes in flame length, while other outputs such as burn probability and fire size increased significantly in the second future period (2041-2070), especially in the southern portion of the study area. The projected changes fuel moisture could result in a lengthening of the fire season for the entire study area. This work represents the first application in Europe of a methodology based on high resolution (250 m) landscape wildfire modeling to assess potential impacts of climate changes on wildfire exposure at a national scale. The findings can provide information and support in wildfire management planning and fire risk mitigation activities. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  3. GPCC - A weather generator-based statistical downscaling tool for site-specific assessment of climate change impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Resolution of climate model outputs are too coarse to be used as direct inputs to impact models for assessing climate change impacts on agricultural production, water resources, and eco-system services at local or site-specific scales. Statistical downscaling approaches are usually used to bridge th...

  4. Health impact assessment in Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, Eunjeong; Lee, Youngsoo; Harris, Patrick; Koh, Kwangwook; Kim, Keonyeop

    2011-01-01

    Recently, Health Impact Assessment has gained great attention in Korea. First, the Ministry of Environment introduced HIA within existing Environment Impact Assessment. Second, the Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs began an HIA program in 2008 in alliance with Healthy Cities. In this short report, these two different efforts are introduced and their opportunities and challenges discussed. We believe these two approaches complement each other and both need to be strengthened. We also believe that both can contribute to the development of health in policy and project development and ultimately to improvements in the Korean population's health.

  5. Stimulating fuelwood consumption through public policies: An assessment of economic and resource impacts based on the French Forest Sector Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caurla, Sylvain; Delacote, Philippe; Lecocq, Franck; Barkaoui, Ahmed

    2013-01-01

    Stimulating renewable energy is a crucial objective in view of tackling climate change and coping with future fossil fuel scarcity. In France, fuelwood appears to be an important source for the renewable energy mix. Using the French Forest Sector Model, our paper aims to assess the impacts of three policy options to stimulate fuelwood consumption: a consumer subsidy, a producer subsidy and a fixed-demand contract policy. We explored their impacts in terms of five groups of criteria: (1) forest resource dynamics; (2) variations in wood products prices and quantities consumed and produced; (3) trade balance; (4) budgetary costs; and (5) variations in agent surpluses. We show that no policy option is more desirable than another on the basis of all of these criteria and that trade-offs will determine which is the best policy option to be implemented. - Highlights: • We compare the bio-economic impacts of policies to boost fuelwood consumption in France. • We simulate a producer subsidy, a consumer subsidy and fixed public demand contracts. • We explore their impacts until 2020 with a dynamic model of the forest sector. • Producer subsidy reduces the trade balance deficit and decreases forest stock. • Consumer subsidy increases consumer welfare and public contracts reduce budgetary costs

  6. E-IMPACT - A ROBUST HAZARD-BASED ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT APPROACH FOR PROCESS INDUSTRIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    KHANDOKER A. HOSSAIN

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a hazard-based environmental impact assessment approach (E-Impact, for evaluating the environmental impact during process design and retrofit stages. E-Impact replaces the normalisation step of the conventional impact assessment phase. This approach compares the impact scores for different options and assigns a relative score to each option. This eliminates the complexity of the normalisation step in the evaluation phase. The applicability of the E-Impact has been illustrated through a case study of solvent selection in an acrylic acid manufacturing plant. E-Impact is used in conjunction with Aspen-HYSYS process simulator to develop mass and heat balance data.

  7. Transport Infrastructure Planning: Assessment of Strategic Mobility by Use of the POINTER Impact Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kronbak, Jacob; Leleur, Steen

    2002-01-01

    of the societal importance of the examined project. The focus of this paper is to present the first results of a comparison of the use of a strategic impact measurement (the POINTER index) for road traffic on the Great Belt Link, the Øresund Link and the proposed Fehmarn Belt link. Specifically a number......When evaluating large infrastructure projects one point to be made is the importance of supplementing the more traditional effects captured by a cost-benefit analysis as presented for example by use of the benefit cost ratio (BCR) with strategic effect modelling to obtain a more comprehensive view...... of calculation scenarios have been made to assess the possibility of the POINTER approach to indicate the changes in strategic mobility (accessibility) associated with the implementing of one or more of the three fixed links. Finally, conclusions and a research perspective are outlined....

  8. Regional Persistent Organic Pollutants' Environmental Impact Assessment and Control Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jurgis Staniskis

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available The sources of formation, environmental distribution and fate of persistent organic pollutants (POPs are increasingly seen as topics to be addressed and solved at the global scale. Therefore, there are already two international agreements concerning persistent organic pollutants: the Protocol of 1998 to the 1979 Convention on the Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution on Persistent Organic Pollutants (Aarhus Protocol; and the Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants. For the assessment of environmental pollution of POPs, for the risk assessment, for the evaluation of new pollutants as potential candidates to be included in the POPs list of the Stokholmo or/and Aarhus Protocol, a set of different models are developed or under development. Multimedia models help describe and understand environmental processes leading to global contamination through POPs and actual risk to the environment and human health. However, there is a lack of the tools based on a systematic and integrated approach to POPs management difficulties in the region.

  9. Prediction and analysis of human thoracic impact responses and injuries in cadaver impacts using a full human body finite element model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruan, Jesse; El-Jawahri, Raed; Chai, Li; Barbat, Saeed; Prasad, Priya

    2003-10-01

    Human thoracic dynamic responses and injuries associated with frontal impact, side impact, and belt loading were investigated and predicted using a complete human body finite element model for an average adult male. The human body model was developed to study the impact biomechanics of a vehicular occupant. Its geometry was based on the Visible Human Project (National Library of Medicine) and the topographies from human body anatomical texts. The data was then scaled to an average adult male according to available biomechanical data from the literature. The model includes details of the head, neck, ribcage, abdomen, thoracic and lumbar spine, internal organs of the chest and abdomen, pelvis, and the upper and lower extremities. The present study is focused on the dynamic response and injuries of the thorax. The model was validated at various impact speeds by comparing predicted responses with available experimental cadaver data in frontal and side pendulum impacts, as well as belt loading. Model responses were compared with similar individual cadaver tests instead of using cadaver corridors because the large differences between the upper and lower bounds of the corridors may confound the model validation. The validated model was then used to study thorax dynamic responses and injuries in various simulated impact conditions. Parameters that could induce injuries such as force, deflection, and stress were computed from model simulations and were compared with previously proposed thoracic injury criteria to assess injury potential for the thorax. It has been shown that the model exhibited speed sensitive impact characteristics, and the compressibility of the internal organs significantly influenced the overall impact response in the simulated impact conditions. This study demonstrates that the development of a validated FE human body model could be useful for injury assessment in various cadaveric impacts reported in the literature. Internal organ injuries, which are

  10. Remote Sensing and Spatial Growth Modeling Coupled With Air Quality Modeling to Assess the Impact of Atlanta, Georgia on the Local and Regional Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quattrochi, D. A.; Estes, M. G.; Crosson, W. L.; Johnson, H.; Khan, M.

    2006-05-01

    The growth of cities, both in population and areal extent, appears as an inexorable process. Urbanization continues at a rapid rate, and it is estimated that by the year 2025, 60 percent of the world's population will live in cities. Urban expansion has profound impacts on a host of biophysical, environmental, and atmospheric processes within an urban ecosystems perspective. A reduction in air quality over cities is a major result of these impacts. Because of its complexity, the urban landscape is not adequately captured in air quality models such as the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model that is used to assess whether urban areas are in attainment of EPA air quality standards, primarily for ground level ozone. This inadequacy of the CMAQ model to sufficiently respond to the heterogeneous nature of the urban landscape can impact how well the model predicts ozone levels over metropolitan areas and ultimately, whether cities exceed EPA ozone air quality standards. We are exploring the utility of high-resolution remote sensing data and urban spatial growth modeling (SGM) projections as improved inputs to a meteorological/air quality modeling system focusing on the Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan area as a case study. These growth projections include "business as usual" and "smart growth" scenarios out to 2030. The growth projections illustrate the effects of employing urban heat island mitigation strategies, such as increasing tree canopy and albedo across the Atlanta metro area, which in turn, are used to model how air temperature can potentially be moderated as impacts on elevating ground-level ozone, as opposed to not utilizing heat island mitigation strategies. The National Land Cover Dataset at 30m resolution is being used as the land use/land cover input and aggregated to the 4km scale for the MM5 mesoscale meteorological model and the CMAQ modeling schemes. Use of these data has been found to better characterize low density/suburban development as

  11. Oil spill risk assessment : relative impact indices by oil type and location

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    French-McCay, D.; Beegle-Krause, C.J.; Rowe, J.; Rodriguez, W.; Schmidt Etkin, D.

    2009-01-01

    The aim of the study was to inform policies related to resource allocation for oil spill prevention, preparedness and response activities in Washington State. Oil spill reports and impact modelling studies were evaluated in order to determine major risk consequence factors including spill volume, location, timing, toxicity, persistence, and expected frequency of spills by sector. The Washington Compensation Schedule pre-assessment screening and oil spill compensation schedule regulations (WCS) designed to consider the sensitivity of oiled areas as well as the relative density and seasonal distributions of sensitive biota. Spill incidents were assigned per-gallon impact scores based on geographic location, oil type, and season. The WCS qualitative rating system was used to assess the potential impacts of spills in different geographic systems. Geographic zones were based on geography, circulation of currents, climate, and the WCS sub-regions in estuarine and marine areas on the Pacific coast of Washington State. Oil types included crude, heavy, and light oils; gasoline; jet fuel; and non-petroleum oils. A habitat index was calculated to represent existing stream conditions. It was concluded that the relative impact risk model is a reliable method for characterizing impacts based on spill volume, oil effects, and vulnerability rankings. 25 refs., 20 tabs., 3 figs

  12. Assessing the potential for fish predation to impact zebra mussels (Dreissena polymorpha): Insight from bioenergetics models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eggleton, M.A.; Miranda, L.E.; Kirk, J.P.

    2004-01-01

    Rates of annual food consumption and biomass were modeled for several fish species across representative rivers and lakes in eastern North America. Results were combined to assess the relative potential of fish predation to impact zebra mussels (Dreissena polymorpha). Predicted annual food consumption by fishes in southern waters was over 100% greater than that in northern systems because of warmer annual water temperatures and presumed increases in metabolic demand. Although generally increasing with latitude, biomasses of several key zebra mussel fish predators did not change significantly across latitudes. Biomasses of some less abundant fish predators did increase significantly with latitude, but increases were not of the magnitude to offset predicted decreases in food consumption. Our results generally support the premise that fishes in rivers and lakes of the southern United States (U.S.) have inherently greater potential to impact zebra mussels by predation. Our simulations may provide a partial explanation of why zebra mussel invasions have not been as rapid and widespread in southern U.S. waters compared to the Great Lakes region. ?? Blackwell Munksgaard, 2004.

  13. Confidence assessment. Site-descriptive modelling SDM-Site Laxemar

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-06-01

    independent data from different disciplines. While some aspects have lower confidence this lack of confidence is handled by providing wider uncertainty ranges, bounding estimates and/or alternative models to repository engineering and long term safety assessment. It is judged that most, of the low confidence aspects have little impact on repository engineering design or for long-term safety. It may also be noted that the feedback requirements from SR-Can to the site modelling are now met in the completed site investigations, subject to levels of uncertainty that are viewed as acceptable. Only a few data points and a few types of data have been omitted from the modelling, mainly because they are judged less relevant and reliable than the data considered. Inclusion of data from outside the Laxemar subarea might have enhanced confidence in the regional model, but only at the locations of the data and these changes in confidence would have been of little significance in relation to implications for the local model area and would not, therefore, have been of any real significance to design or safety assessment. These omissions are judged to have little or no negative impact on confidence in the Laxemar subarea model. In fact, identification of unreliable data and their elimination should have a positive effect on confidence. Poor precision in the measured data is judged to have a limited impact on uncertainties in the site descriptive model, with the exceptions of interpretation and combination of borehole and outcrop fracture data and general uncertainties in sorption data

  14. Confidence assessment. Site-descriptive modelling SDM-Site Laxemar

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2008-12-15

    independent data from different disciplines. While some aspects have lower confidence this lack of confidence is handled by providing wider uncertainty ranges, bounding estimates and/or alternative models to repository engineering and long term safety assessment. It is judged that most, of the low confidence aspects have little impact on repository engineering design or for long-term safety. It may also be noted that the feedback requirements from SR-Can to the site modelling are now met in the completed site investigations, subject to levels of uncertainty that are viewed as acceptable. Only a few data points and a few types of data have been omitted from the modelling, mainly because they are judged less relevant and reliable than the data considered. Inclusion of data from outside the Laxemar subarea might have enhanced confidence in the regional model, but only at the locations of the data and these changes in confidence would have been of little significance in relation to implications for the local model area and would not, therefore, have been of any real significance to design or safety assessment. These omissions are judged to have little or no negative impact on confidence in the Laxemar subarea model. In fact, identification of unreliable data and their elimination should have a positive effect on confidence. Poor precision in the measured data is judged to have a limited impact on uncertainties in the site descriptive model, with the exceptions of interpretation and combination of borehole and outcrop fracture data and general uncertainties in sorption data

  15. Probabilistic assessment of the impact of coal seam gas development on groundwater: Surat Basin, Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Tao; Moore, Catherine; Raiber, Matthias

    2018-05-01

    Modelling cumulative impacts of basin-scale coal seam gas (CSG) extraction is challenging due to the long time frames and spatial extent over which impacts occur combined with the need to consider local-scale processes. The computational burden of such models limits the ability to undertake calibration and sensitivity and uncertainty analyses. A framework is presented that integrates recently developed methods and tools to address the computational burdens of an assessment of drawdown impacts associated with rapid CSG development in the Surat Basin, Australia. The null space Monte Carlo method combined with singular value decomposition (SVD)-assisted regularisation was used to analyse the uncertainty of simulated drawdown impacts. The study also describes how the computational burden of assessing local-scale impacts was mitigated by adopting a novel combination of a nested modelling framework which incorporated a model emulator of drawdown in dual-phase flow conditions, and a methodology for representing local faulting. This combination provides a mechanism to support more reliable estimates of regional CSG-related drawdown predictions. The study indicates that uncertainties associated with boundary conditions are reduced significantly when expressing differences between scenarios. The results are analysed and distilled to enable the easy identification of areas where the simulated maximum drawdown impacts could exceed trigger points associated with legislative `make good' requirements; trigger points require that either an adjustment in the development scheme or other measures are implemented to remediate the impact. This report contributes to the currently small body of work that describes modelling and uncertainty analyses of CSG extraction impacts on groundwater.

  16. GIS-based models for ambient PM exposure and health impact assessment for the UK

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stedman, John R; Grice, Susannah; Kent, Andrew; Cooke, Sally

    2009-01-01

    GIS-based models have been developed to map ambient PM 10 and PM 25 mass concentrations across the UK. The resulting maps are used for the assessments of air quality required by the EU ambient air quality directives, health impact assessment and the development of UK air quality policy. Maps are presented for 2006 along with projections to 2020. The largest single contribution to the UK population-weighted mean annual mean background concentrations of PM 10 in 2006 is estimated to be from secondary PM (43%), followed by the contribution from primary PM (24%). Concentrations are predicted to decline by 15% for PM 10 and 13% for PM 25 over the period from 2006 to 2020. The extent of exceedence of the 24-hour limit value is predicted to decline from 1.9% to 0.1% of urban major roads over the same period. The potential health benefits of reductions in ambient PM are large. A reduction in concentration of 0.93 μg m -3 as a result of a possible package of measures has been estimated within the UK Air Quality Strategy to result in a reduction in life years lost of approximately 2 - 4 million over a period of 100 years.

  17. Assessment of winter wheat loss risk impacted by climate change from 1982 to 2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Xin

    2017-04-01

    The world's farmers will face increasing pressure to grow more food on less land in succeeding few decades, because it seems that the continuous population growth and agricultural products turning to biofuels would extend several decades into the future. Therefore, the increased demand for food supply worldwide calls for improved accuracy of crop productivity estimation and assessment of grain production loss risk. Extensive studies have been launched to evaluate the impacts of climate change on crop production based on various crop models drove with global or regional climate model (GCM/RCM) output. However, assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture productivity is plagued with uncertainties of the future climate change scenarios and complexity of crop model. Therefore, given uncertain climate conditions and a lack of model parameters, these methods are strictly limited in application. In this study, an empirical assessment approach for crop loss risk impacted by water stress has been established and used to evaluate the risk of winter wheat loss in China, United States, Germany, France and United Kingdom. The average value of winter wheat loss risk impacted by water stress for the three countries of Europe is about -931kg/ha, which is obviously higher in contrast with that in China (-570kg/ha) and in United States (-367kg/ha). Our study has important implications for further application of operational assessment of crop loss risk at a country or region scale. Future studies should focus on using higher spatial resolution remote sensing data, combining actual evapo-transpiration to estimate water stress, improving the method for downscaling of statistic crop yield data, and establishing much more rational and elaborate zoning method.

  18. Environmental impact assessment for surface coal mine - a case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sen, P.; Chakraborty, K.

    1994-01-01

    Surface coal mines being the largest contributor to the national coal production, the study of environmental impacts due to this becomes mandatory as it will help in proper planning and safe operations of the mine in an environmentally compatible manner. Within the scope of this paper, a model for preparation of comprehensive environmental impact assessment (EIA) by utilising a new evaluation methodology leading to determination of Environmental Quality Designation an index has been developed and this model has been validated by using data from a running surface coal mine in Wardha Valley Coalfield. Based on this exercise, the overall impact of the surface coal mine under consideration on environment indicates a medium level and accordingly the control measures have to be planned. Thus repair to the environment has to be made a concurrent activity with mining i.e. to say we have to design with nature not against it

  19. Conceptual Model of Climate Change Impacts at LANL

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dewart, Jean Marie [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2016-05-17

    Goal 9 of the LANL FY15 Site Sustainability Plan (LANL 2014a) addresses Climate Change Adaptation. As part of Goal 9, the plan reviews many of the individual programs the Laboratory has initiated over the past 20 years to address climate change impacts to LANL (e.g. Wildland Fire Management Plan, Forest Management Plan, etc.). However, at that time, LANL did not yet have a comprehensive approach to climate change adaptation. To fill this gap, the FY15 Work Plan for the LANL Long Term Strategy for Environmental Stewardship and Sustainability (LANL 2015) included a goal of (1) establishing a comprehensive conceptual model of climate change impacts at LANL and (2) establishing specific climate change indices to measure climate change and impacts at Los Alamos. Establishing a conceptual model of climate change impacts will demonstrate that the Laboratory is addressing climate change impacts in a comprehensive manner. This paper fulfills the requirement of goal 1. The establishment of specific indices of climate change at Los Alamos (goal 2), will improve our ability to determine climate change vulnerabilities and assess risk. Future work will include prioritizing risks, evaluating options/technologies/costs, and where appropriate, taking actions. To develop a comprehensive conceptual model of climate change impacts, we selected the framework provided in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Resilience Toolkit (http://toolkit.climate.gov/).

  20. Methodologies of environmental impact assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schroll, H.

    1994-01-01

    This article gives a brief introduction covering the objectives of environmental impact assessment (EIA) and sustainable development, before going on to describe the screening procedure to define the environmental and socio-economic impacts of projects. The EIA procedure outlined encompasses a description of the project, examination of all environmental effects (scoping), identification of existing and predicted environmental conditions and impacts, alternative measures and mitigating measures, co-ordination, with environmental regulations, public participation, and monitoring and approval of the EIA. (UK)

  1. Modelling the combined impact of radionuclide discharges reaching rivers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hilton, J.; Small, S.; Hornby, D.; Scarlett, P.; Harvey, M.; Simmonds, J.; Bexon, A.; Jones, A.

    2003-01-01

    The Agency currently authorises direct and indirect (via sewerage systems) discharges of liquid radioactive wastes to rivers from nuclear sites and other registered users of radioactivity. Discharges are normally authorised on a site-by-site basis, taking into account the radiological assessment. Radiological assessments are normally made using dilution models to estimate radionuclide activities in the effluents themselves and in the receiving rivers. These data are then combined with information on habits and dose factor information to give a dose assessment for individuals exposed to the discharge. For each site the highest radiological impact is expected immediately downstream of the disposal point where concentrations of radionuclides and resulting doses are highest. The concentration and doses are expected to decline with increasing distance downstream of the disposal point. However, if discharges are made into the river from other establishments higher up the catchment, the total dose may be higher. Recent Environment Agency research projects provided evidence of the potential radiological significance of multiple discharges to a single river. In the light of these studies, the Agency require a robust modelling tool to assist in the assessment of the effects of combined discharges to river systems. The aim of this R and D project was to develop and test modelling tools that could be used to make assessments of the impact of multiple radiological discharge into river systems and to trial them on the upper Thames river system

  2. Interactive Rapid Dose Assessment Model (IRDAM): reactor-accident assessment methods. Vol.2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poeton, R.W.; Moeller, M.P.; Laughlin, G.J.; Desrosiers, A.E.

    1983-05-01

    As part of the continuing emphasis on emergency preparedness, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) sponsored the development of a rapid dose assessment system by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL). This system, the Interactive Rapid Dose Assessment Model (IRDAM) is a micro-computer based program for rapidly assessing the radiological impact of accidents at nuclear power plants. This document describes the technical bases for IRDAM including methods, models and assumptions used in calculations. IRDAM calculates whole body (5-cm depth) and infant thyroid doses at six fixed downwind distances between 500 and 20,000 meters. Radionuclides considered primarily consist of noble gases and radioiodines. In order to provide a rapid assessment capability consistent with the capacity of the Osborne-1 computer, certain simplifying approximations and assumptions are made. These are described, along with default values (assumptions used in the absence of specific input) in the text of this document. Two companion volumes to this one provide additional information on IRDAM. The user's Guide (NUREG/CR-3012, Volume 1) describes the setup and operation of equipment necessary to run IRDAM. Scenarios for Comparing Dose Assessment Models (NUREG/CR-3012, Volume 3) provides the results of calculations made by IRDAM and other models for specific accident scenarios

  3. 34 CFR 75.601 - Applicant's assessment of environmental impact.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 34 Education 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Applicant's assessment of environmental impact. 75.601... Conditions Must Be Met by a Grantee? Construction § 75.601 Applicant's assessment of environmental impact. An applicant shall include with its application its assessment of the impact of the proposed construction on...

  4. Assessing Changes in Precipitation and Impacts on Groundwater in Southeastern Brazil using Regional Hydroclimate Reconstruction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nunes, A.; Fernandes, M.; Silva, G. C., Jr.

    2017-12-01

    Aquifers can be key players in regional water resources. Precipitation infiltration is the most relevant process in recharging the aquifers. In that regard, understanding precipitation changes and impacts on the hydrological cycle helps in the assessment of groundwater availability from the aquifers. Regional modeling systems can provide precipitation, near-surface air temperature, together with soil moisture at different ground levels from coupled land-surface schemes. More accurate those variables are better the evaluation of the precipitation impact on the groundwater. Downscaling of global reanalysis very often employs regional modeling systems, in order to give more detailed information for impact assessment studies at regional scales. In particular, the regional modeling system, Satellite-enhanced Regional Downscaling for Applied Studies (SRDAS), might improve the accuracy of hydrometeorological variables in regions with spatial and temporal scarcity of in-situ observations. SRDAS combines assimilation of precipitation estimates from gauge-corrected satellite-based products with spectral nudging technique. The SRDAS hourly outputs provide monthly means of atmospheric and land-surface variables, including precipitation, used in the calculations of the hydrological budget terms. Results show the impact of changes in precipitation on groundwater in the aquifer located near the southeastern coastline of Brazil, through the assessment of the water-cycle terms, using a hydrological model during dry and rainy periods found in the 15-year numerical integration of SRDAS.

  5. The AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruane, Alex; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Elliott, Joshua; Antle, John

    2015-01-01

    The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has been working since 2010 to construct a protocol-based framework enabling regional assessments (led by regional experts and modelers) that can provide consistent inputs to global economic and integrated assessment models. These global models can then relay important global-level information that drive regional decision-making and outcomes throughout an interconnected agricultural system. AgMIPs community of nearly 800 climate, crop, livestock, economics, and IT experts has improved the state-of-the-art through model intercomparisons, validation exercises, regional integrated assessments, and the launch of AgMIP programs on all six arable continents. AgMIP is now launching Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of climate change impacts on agriculture and food security to link global and regional crop and economic models using a protocol-based framework. The CGRA protocols are being developed to utilize historical observations, climate projections, and RCPsSSPs from CMIP5 (and potentially CMIP6), and will examine stakeholder-driven agricultural development and adaptation scenarios to provide cutting-edge assessments of climate changes impact on agriculture and food security. These protocols will build on the foundation of established protocols from AgMIPs 30+ activities, and will emphasize the use of multiple models, scenarios, and scales to enable an accurate assessment of related uncertainties. The CGRA is also designed to provide the outputs necessary to feed into integrated assessment models (IAMs), nutrition and food security assessments, nitrogen and carbon cycle models, and additional impact-sector assessments (e.g., water resources, land-use, biomes, urban areas). This presentation will describe the current status of CGRA planning and initial prototype experiments to demonstrate key aspects of the protocols before wider implementation ahead of the IPCC Sixth Assessment

  6. The AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruane, A. C.; Rosenzweig, C.; Antle, J. M.; Elliott, J. W.

    2015-12-01

    The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has been working since 2010 to construct a protocol-based framework enabling regional assessments (led by regional experts and modelers) that can provide consistent inputs to global economic and integrated assessment models. These global models can then relay important global-level information that drive regional decision-making and outcomes throughout an interconnected agricultural system. AgMIP's community of nearly 800 climate, crop, livestock, economics, and IT experts has improved the state-of-the-art through model intercomparisons, validation exercises, regional integrated assessments, and the launch of AgMIP programs on all six arable continents. AgMIP is now launching Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of climate change impacts on agriculture and food security to link global and regional crop and economic models using a protocol-based framework. The CGRA protocols are being developed to utilize historical observations, climate projections, and RCPs/SSPs from CMIP5 (and potentially CMIP6), and will examine stakeholder-driven agricultural development and adaptation scenarios to provide cutting-edge assessments of climate change's impact on agriculture and food security. These protocols will build on the foundation of established protocols from AgMIP's 30+ activities, and will emphasize the use of multiple models, scenarios, and scales to enable an accurate assessment of related uncertainties. The CGRA is also designed to provide the outputs necessary to feed into integrated assessment models (IAMs), nutrition and food security assessments, nitrogen and carbon cycle models, and additional impact-sector assessments (e.g., water resources, land-use, biomes, urban areas). This presentation will describe the current status of CGRA planning and initial prototype experiments to demonstrate key aspects of the protocols before wider implementation ahead of the IPCC Sixth Assessment

  7. Assessing the impact of a tutorial intervention when teaching the ray model of light in introductory physics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kesonen, M H P; Asikainen, M A; Hirvonen, P E

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a 90 min tutorial intervention which permits the use of the Tutorials in Introductory Physics curriculum in a conventional physics course. In addition, the paper describes the impact of the intervention on students' understanding of the ray model of light in the context of geometrical images. In 2011 and 2012 a total of 79 introductory students participated in the intervention, where they worked with the Light and Shadow tutorial after having received lecture-based instruction in a conventional physics course. The impact of the intervention on the students' learning was assessed by means of paper-and-pencil test questions at the beginning and end of the intervention. The results showed that the proportion of correct or nearly correct answers increased by 17 percentage points during the intervention. Thus, it can be claimed that the intervention was a useful supplement to a conventional physics course by helping students to improve their understanding of the ray model of light. In addition, the intervention may serve as an intermediate step towards adopting the tutorials, since it permits the curriculum of a conventional physics course to be tested without large changes being made to the course. This type of information is needed in support of institutional changes towards more research-based instructional practices. (paper)

  8. Environmental impact assessment in the Nordic Countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Broden, K.; Palsson, S.E.; Poroddsson, P.

    2000-12-01

    A meeting on Environmental Impact Assessment has been held in Iceland, September 2-6, 2000. It was held within the framework of the project NKS/SOS-3 (Radioactive waste), subproject NKS/SOS-3.1 (Environmental Impact Assessment). The meeting included presentations, discussions and a study trip to the Egilsstadir and Myvatn districts. (au)

  9. Are stormwater pollution impacts significant in life cycle assessment? A new methodology for quantifying embedded urban stormwater impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, Robert; Jeswani, Harish Kumar; Azapagic, Adisa; Apul, Defne

    2018-09-15

    Current life cycle assessment (LCA) models do not explicitly incorporate the impacts from urban stormwater pollution. To address this issue, a framework to estimate the impacts from urban stormwater pollution over the lifetime of a system has been developed, laying the groundwork for subsequent improvements in life cycle databases and LCA modelling. The proposed framework incorporates urban stormwater event mean concentration (EMC) data into existing LCA impact categories to account for the environmental impacts associated with urban land occupation across the whole life cycle of a system. It consists of five steps: (1) compilation of inventory of urban stormwater pollutants; (2) collection of precipitation data; (3) classification and characterisation within existing midpoint impact categories; (4) collation of inventory data for impermeable urban land occupation; and (5) impact assessment. The framework is generic and can be applied to any system using any LCA impact method. Its application is demonstrated by two illustrative case studies: electricity generation and production of construction materials. The results show that pollutants in urban stormwater have an influence on human toxicity, freshwater and marine ecotoxicity, marine eutrophication, freshwater eutrophication and terrestrial ecotoxicity. Among these, urban stormwater pollution has the highest relative contribution to the eutrophication potentials. The results also suggest that stormwater pollution from urban areas can have a substantial effect on the life cycle impacts of some systems (construction materials), while for some systems the effect is small (e.g. electricity generation). However, it is not possible to determine a priori which systems are affected so that the impacts from stormwater pollution should be considered routinely in future LCA studies. The paper also proposes ways to incorporate stormwater pollution burdens into the life cycle databases. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All

  10. Assessment of the impact of modeling axial compression on PET image reconstruction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belzunce, Martin A; Reader, Andrew J

    2017-10-01

    To comprehensively evaluate both the acceleration and image-quality impacts of axial compression and its degree of modeling in fully 3D PET image reconstruction. Despite being used since the very dawn of 3D PET reconstruction, there are still no extensive studies on the impact of axial compression and its degree of modeling during reconstruction on the end-point reconstructed image quality. In this work, an evaluation of the impact of axial compression on the image quality is performed by extensively simulating data with span values from 1 to 121. In addition, two methods for modeling the axial compression in the reconstruction were evaluated. The first method models the axial compression in the system matrix, while the second method uses an unmatched projector/backprojector, where the axial compression is modeled only in the forward projector. The different system matrices were analyzed by computing their singular values and the point response functions for small subregions of the FOV. The two methods were evaluated with simulated and real data for the Biograph mMR scanner. For the simulated data, the axial compression with span values lower than 7 did not show a decrease in the contrast of the reconstructed images. For span 11, the standard sinogram size of the mMR scanner, losses of contrast in the range of 5-10 percentage points were observed when measured for a hot lesion. For higher span values, the spatial resolution was degraded considerably. However, impressively, for all span values of 21 and lower, modeling the axial compression in the system matrix compensated for the spatial resolution degradation and obtained similar contrast values as the span 1 reconstructions. Such approaches have the same processing times as span 1 reconstructions, but they permit significant reduction in storage requirements for the fully 3D sinograms. For higher span values, the system has a large condition number and it is therefore difficult to recover accurately the higher

  11. Assessing the impact of future climate change on groundwater recharge in Galicia-Costa, Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raposo, Juan Ramón; Dafonte, Jorge; Molinero, Jorge

    2013-03-01

    Climate change can impact the hydrological processes of a watershed and may result in problems with future water supply for large sections of the population. Results from the FP5 PRUDENCE project suggest significant changes in temperature and precipitation over Europe. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to assess the potential impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge in the hydrological district of Galicia-Costa, Spain. Climate projections from two general circulation models and eight different regional climate models were used for the assessment and two climate-change scenarios were evaluated. Calibration and validation of the model were performed using a daily time-step in four representative catchments in the district. The effects on modeled mean annual groundwater recharge are small, partly due to the greater stomatal efficiency of plants in response to increased CO2 concentration. However, climate change strongly influences the temporal variability of modeled groundwater recharge. Recharge may concentrate in the winter season and dramatically decrease in the summer-autumn season. As a result, the dry-season duration may be increased on average by almost 30 % for the A2 emission scenario, exacerbating the current problems in water supply.

  12. Methodology for qualitative uncertainty assessment of climate impact indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otto, Juliane; Keup-Thiel, Elke; Rechid, Diana; Hänsler, Andreas; Pfeifer, Susanne; Roth, Ellinor; Jacob, Daniela

    2016-04-01

    The FP7 project "Climate Information Portal for Copernicus" (CLIPC) is developing an integrated platform of climate data services to provide a single point of access for authoritative scientific information on climate change and climate change impacts. In this project, the Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS) has been in charge of the development of a methodology on how to assess the uncertainties related to climate impact indicators. Existing climate data portals mainly treat the uncertainties in two ways: Either they provide generic guidance and/or express with statistical measures the quantifiable fraction of the uncertainty. However, none of the climate data portals give the users a qualitative guidance how confident they can be in the validity of the displayed data. The need for such guidance was identified in CLIPC user consultations. Therefore, we aim to provide an uncertainty assessment that provides the users with climate impact indicator-specific guidance on the degree to which they can trust the outcome. We will present an approach that provides information on the importance of different sources of uncertainties associated with a specific climate impact indicator and how these sources affect the overall 'degree of confidence' of this respective indicator. To meet users requirements in the effective communication of uncertainties, their feedback has been involved during the development process of the methodology. Assessing and visualising the quantitative component of uncertainty is part of the qualitative guidance. As visual analysis method, we apply the Climate Signal Maps (Pfeifer et al. 2015), which highlight only those areas with robust climate change signals. Here, robustness is defined as a combination of model agreement and the significance of the individual model projections. Reference Pfeifer, S., Bülow, K., Gobiet, A., Hänsler, A., Mudelsee, M., Otto, J., Rechid, D., Teichmann, C. and Jacob, D.: Robustness of Ensemble Climate Projections

  13. Simplified life cycle assessment models: methodological framework and applications to energy pathways

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Padey, Pierryves

    2013-01-01

    The energy transition debate is a key issue for today and the coming years. One of the challenges is to limit the environmental impacts of electricity production. Decision support tools, sufficiently accurate, simple to use, accounting for environmental aspects and favoring future energetic choices, must be implemented. However, the environmental assessment of the energy pathways is complex, and it means considering a two levels characterization. The 'energy pathway' is the first level and corresponds to its environmental distribution, to compare overall pathways. The 'system pathway' is the 2. level and compares environmental impacts of systems within each pathway. We have devised a generic methodology covering both necessary characterization levels by estimating the energy pathways environmental profiles while allowing a simple comparison of its systems environmental impacts. This methodology is based on the definition of a parameterized Life Cycle Assessment model and considers, through a Global Sensitivity Analysis, the environmental impacts of a large sample of systems representative of an energy pathway. As a second step, this methodology defines simplified models based on few key parameters identified as inducing the largest variability in the energy pathway environmental impacts. These models assess in a simple way the systems environmental impacts, avoiding any complex LCAs. This reduction methodology has been applied to the onshore wind power energy pathway in Europe and the photovoltaic energy pathway in France. (author)

  14. Assessment of co-composting of sludge and woodchips in the perspective of environmental impacts (EASETECH)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhao, Yan; Lu, Wenjing; Damgaard, Anders

    2015-01-01

    To reveal potential impacts to environment and human health quantitatively, co-composting and utilization of sludge and woodchips were investigated using a life-cycle-based model, EASETECH. Three scenarios were assessed through experiments using different material ratios. Emission amounts during ...... rather than farming. Trace gaseous compounds showed marginal impacts to global warming and toxicity categories. The results provide a new perspective and offer evidence for appropriate sludge treatment selection.......To reveal potential impacts to environment and human health quantitatively, co-composting and utilization of sludge and woodchips were investigated using a life-cycle-based model, EASETECH. Three scenarios were assessed through experiments using different material ratios. Emission amounts during co...... of phosphorus substitution. With the application of fewer woodchips, impacts to acidification and terrestrial eutrophication decreased because more ammonium was reserved rather than released. All impacts to human toxicity were not significant (8.2. ±. 0.6 PE) because the compost was used for urban landscaping...

  15. Modeling the assessment of the economic factors impact on the development of social entrepreneurship

    Science.gov (United States)

    Absalyamov, T.; Kundakchyan, R.; Zulfakarova, L.; Zapparova, Z.

    2017-12-01

    The article deals with the research of modern trends in the development of social entrepreneurship in Russia. The results of the research allow the authors to identify a system of factors that affect the development of entrepreneurship in the modern Russian economy. Moreover, the authors argue the regional specificity of the development of social entrepreneurship. The paper considers specific features and formulates the main limitations of the development of entrepreneurship and the competitive environment in the social sphere. The authors suggest an econometric model for assessing the influence of economic factors on the development of socially-oriented entrepreneurship and present an algorithm for calculating its components. The results of the econometric analysis identify the main factors of the change in the performance indicators of entrepreneurial activity and determine the degree of their impact on social entrepreneurship. The results and conclusions can serve as an estimation of the socioeconomic consequences of the sustainability disruption of the entrepreneurial potential realization in the social sphere.

  16. Progress in modelling agricultural impacts of and adaptations to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rötter, R P; Hoffmann, M P; Koch, M; Müller, C

    2018-06-01

    Modelling is a key tool to explore agricultural impacts of and adaptations to climate change. Here we report recent progress made especially referring to the large project initiatives MACSUR and AgMIP; in particular, in modelling potential crop impacts from field to global using multi-model ensembles. We identify two main fields where further progress is necessary: a more mechanistic understanding of climate impacts and management options for adaptation and mitigation; and focusing on cropping systems and integrative multi-scale assessments instead of single season and crops, especially in complex tropical and neglected but important cropping systems. Stronger linking of experimentation with statistical and eco-physiological crop modelling could facilitate the necessary methodological advances. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Analysis and study on generic models for use in assessing the impact of radioactive liquid effluent to the environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ma Wenlin; Cao Jianzu; Fang Dong

    2008-01-01

    The assessment of the impact of discharges of radioactive substances into surface water under normal condition of nuclear facilities is an important part of the environmental impact analysis. Generic methods for assessing the impact of radioactive liquid effluent release into surface water provided by IAEA Safety Reports Series 19 are studied in this paper, and also an example calculation that assesses the impact of radioactive surface water discharge of HTR-PM ( High Temperature Air-cooled Reactor demonstration unit) in Anhui is presented in this paper to illustrate that a simplified but conservative assessment can be used for the purpose of screening proposed radioactive discharges. If the results meet the relevant requirements specified by the relevant regulatory authority, the further calculations are not needed. If they fails to meet the requirements, the more field data are to be sampled for calculations by more sophisticated mode or otherwise. (authors)

  18. Assessment of impact distances for particulate matter dispersion: A stochastic approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Godoy, S.M.; Mores, P.L.; Santa Cruz, A.S.M. [CAIMI - Centro de Aplicaciones Informaticas y Modelado en Ingenieria, Universidad Tecnologica Nacional-Facultad Regional Rosario, Zeballos 1341-S2000 BQA Rosario, Santa Fe (Argentina); Scenna, N.J. [CAIMI - Centro de Aplicaciones Informaticas y Modelado en Ingenieria, Universidad Tecnologica Nacional-Facultad Regional Rosario, Zeballos 1341-S2000 BQA Rosario, Santa Fe (Argentina); INGAR - Instituto de Desarrollo y Diseno (Fundacion ARCIEN - CONICET), Avellaneda 3657, S3002 GJC Santa Fe (Argentina)], E-mail: nscenna@santafe-conicet.gov.ar

    2009-10-15

    It is known that pollutants can be dispersed from the emission sources by the wind, or settled on the ground. Particle size, stack height, topography and meteorological conditions strongly affect particulate matter (PM) dispersion. In this work, an impact distance calculation methodology considering different particulate sizes is presented. A Gaussian-type dispersion model for PM that handles size particles larger than 0.1 {mu}m is used. The model considers primary particles and continuous emissions. PM concentration distribution at every affected geographical point defined by a grid is computed. Stochastic uncertainty caused by the natural variability of atmospheric parameters is taken into consideration in the dispersion model by applying a Monte Carlo methodology. The prototype package (STRRAP) that takes into account the stochastic behaviour of atmospheric variables, developed for risk assessment and safe distances calculation [Godoy SM, Santa Cruz ASM, Scenna NJ. STRRAP SYSTEM - A software for hazardous materials risk assessment and safe distances calculation. Reliability Engineering and System Safety 2007;92(7):847-57] is enlarged for the analysis of the PM air dispersion. STRRAP computes distances from the source to every affected receptor in each trial and generates the impact distance distribution for each particulate size. In addition, a representative impact distance value to delimit the affected area can be obtained. Fuel oil stack effluents dispersion in Rosario city is simulated as a case study. Mass concentration distributions and impact distances are computed for the range of interest in environmental air quality evaluations (PM{sub 2.5}-PM{sub 10})

  19. Assessment of impact distances for particulate matter dispersion: A stochastic approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Godoy, S.M.; Mores, P.L.; Santa Cruz, A.S.M.; Scenna, N.J.

    2009-01-01

    It is known that pollutants can be dispersed from the emission sources by the wind, or settled on the ground. Particle size, stack height, topography and meteorological conditions strongly affect particulate matter (PM) dispersion. In this work, an impact distance calculation methodology considering different particulate sizes is presented. A Gaussian-type dispersion model for PM that handles size particles larger than 0.1 μm is used. The model considers primary particles and continuous emissions. PM concentration distribution at every affected geographical point defined by a grid is computed. Stochastic uncertainty caused by the natural variability of atmospheric parameters is taken into consideration in the dispersion model by applying a Monte Carlo methodology. The prototype package (STRRAP) that takes into account the stochastic behaviour of atmospheric variables, developed for risk assessment and safe distances calculation [Godoy SM, Santa Cruz ASM, Scenna NJ. STRRAP SYSTEM - A software for hazardous materials risk assessment and safe distances calculation. Reliability Engineering and System Safety 2007;92(7):847-57] is enlarged for the analysis of the PM air dispersion. STRRAP computes distances from the source to every affected receptor in each trial and generates the impact distance distribution for each particulate size. In addition, a representative impact distance value to delimit the affected area can be obtained. Fuel oil stack effluents dispersion in Rosario city is simulated as a case study. Mass concentration distributions and impact distances are computed for the range of interest in environmental air quality evaluations (PM 2.5 -PM 10 ).

  20. Assessing the impacts of livestock production on biodiversity in rangeland ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alkemade, Rob; Reid, Robin S.; van den Berg, Maurits; de Leeuw, Jan; Jeuken, Michel

    2013-01-01

    Biodiversity in rangelands is decreasing, due to intense utilization for livestock production and conversion of rangeland into cropland; yet the outlook of rangeland biodiversity has not been considered in view of future global demand for food. Here we assess the impact of future livestock production on the global rangelands area and their biodiversity. First we formalized existing knowledge about livestock grazing impacts on biodiversity, expressed in mean species abundance (MSA) of the original rangeland native species assemblages, through metaanalysis of peer-reviewed literature. MSA values, ranging from 1 in natural rangelands to 0.3 in man-made grasslands, were entered in the IMAGE-GLOBIO model. This model was used to assess the impact of change in food demand and livestock production on future rangeland biodiversity. The model revealed remarkable regional variation in impact on rangeland area and MSA between two agricultural production scenarios. The area of used rangelands slightly increases globally between 2000 and 2050 in the baseline scenario and reduces under a scenario of enhanced uptake of resource-efficient production technologies increasing production [high levels of agricultural knowledge, science, and technology (high-AKST)], particularly in Africa. Both scenarios suggest a global decrease in MSA for rangelands until 2050. The contribution of livestock grazing to MSA loss is, however, expected to diminish after 2030, in particular in Africa under the high-AKST scenario. Policies fostering agricultural intensification can reduce the overall pressure on rangeland biodiversity, but additional measures, addressing factors such as climate change and infrastructural development, are necessary to totally halt biodiversity loss. PMID:22308313

  1. New statistical methodology, mathematical models, and data bases relevant to the assessment of health impacts of energy technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ginevan, M.E.; Collins, J.J.; Brown, C.D.; Carnes, B.A.; Curtiss, J.B.; Devine, N.

    1981-01-01

    The present research develops new statistical methodology, mathematical models, and data bases of relevance to the assessment of health impacts of energy technologies, and uses these to identify, quantify, and pedict adverse health effects of energy related pollutants. Efforts are in five related areas including: (1) evaluation and development of statistical procedures for the analysis of death rate data, disease incidence data, and large scale data sets; (2) development of dose response and demographic models useful in the prediction of the health effects of energy technologies; (3) application of our method and models to analyses of the health risks of energy production; (4) a reanalysis of the Tri-State leukemia survey data, focusing on the relationship between myelogenous leukemia risk and diagnostic x-ray exposure; and (5) investigation of human birth weights as a possible early warning system for the effects of environmental pollution

  2. Can the combined use of an ensemble based modelling approach and the analysis of measured meteorological trends lead to increased confidence in climate change impact assessments?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gädeke, Anne; Koch, Hagen; Pohle, Ina; Grünewald, Uwe

    2014-05-01

    In anthropogenically heavily impacted river catchments, such as the Lusatian river catchments of Spree and Schwarze Elster (Germany), the robust assessment of possible impacts of climate change on the regional water resources is of high relevance for the development and implementation of suitable climate change adaptation strategies. Large uncertainties inherent in future climate projections may, however, reduce the willingness of regional stakeholder to develop and implement suitable adaptation strategies to climate change. This study provides an overview of different possibilities to consider uncertainties in climate change impact assessments by means of (1) an ensemble based modelling approach and (2) the incorporation of measured and simulated meteorological trends. The ensemble based modelling approach consists of the meteorological output of four climate downscaling approaches (DAs) (two dynamical and two statistical DAs (113 realisations in total)), which drive different model configurations of two conceptually different hydrological models (HBV-light and WaSiM-ETH). As study area serve three near natural subcatchments of the Spree and Schwarze Elster river catchments. The objective of incorporating measured meteorological trends into the analysis was twofold: measured trends can (i) serve as a mean to validate the results of the DAs and (ii) be regarded as harbinger for the future direction of change. Moreover, regional stakeholders seem to have more trust in measurements than in modelling results. In order to evaluate the nature of the trends, both gradual (Mann-Kendall test) and step changes (Pettitt test) are considered as well as both temporal and spatial correlations in the data. The results of the ensemble based modelling chain show that depending on the type (dynamical or statistical) of DA used, opposing trends in precipitation, actual evapotranspiration and discharge are simulated in the scenario period (2031-2060). While the statistical DAs

  3. Sources of uncertainty in hydrological climate impact assessment: a cross-scale study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hattermann, F. F.; Vetter, T.; Breuer, L.; Su, Buda; Daggupati, P.; Donnelly, C.; Fekete, B.; Flörke, F.; Gosling, S. N.; Hoffmann, P.; Liersch, S.; Masaki, Y.; Motovilov, Y.; Müller, C.; Samaniego, L.; Stacke, T.; Wada, Y.; Yang, T.; Krysnaova, V.

    2018-01-01

    Climate change impacts on water availability and hydrological extremes are major concerns as regards the Sustainable Development Goals. Impacts on hydrology are normally investigated as part of a modelling chain, in which climate projections from multiple climate models are used as inputs to multiple impact models, under different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, which result in different amounts of global temperature rise. While the goal is generally to investigate the relevance of changes in climate for the water cycle, water resources or hydrological extremes, it is often the case that variations in other components of the model chain obscure the effect of climate scenario variation. This is particularly important when assessing the impacts of relatively lower magnitudes of global warming, such as those associated with the aspirational goals of the Paris Agreement. In our study, we use ANOVA (analyses of variance) to allocate and quantify the main sources of uncertainty in the hydrological impact modelling chain. In turn we determine the statistical significance of different sources of uncertainty. We achieve this by using a set of five climate models and up to 13 hydrological models, for nine large scale river basins across the globe, under four emissions scenarios. The impact variable we consider in our analysis is daily river discharge. We analyze overall water availability and flow regime, including seasonality, high flows and low flows. Scaling effects are investigated by separately looking at discharge generated by global and regional hydrological models respectively. Finally, we compare our results with other recently published studies. We find that small differences in global temperature rise associated with some emissions scenarios have mostly significant impacts on river discharge—however, climate model related uncertainty is so large that it obscures the sensitivity of the hydrological system.

  4. Methodology for Environmental Impact Assessment; Metodik foer miljoekonsekvensbedoemning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Malmlund, Anna (Structor Miljoebyraan Stockholm AB (Sweden))

    2010-12-15

    This report is an appendix to 'Environmental Impact Assessment Interim storage, encapsulation and disposal of spent nuclear fuel'. The appendix presents the methodology and criteria used in support investigations to conduct impact assessments.

  5. Assessing the performance of reinforced concrete structures under impact loads

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sharma, Akanshu; Reddy, G.R.; Vaze, K.K.; Ozbolt, Josko; Hofmann, J.

    2011-01-01

    Reinforced concrete (RC) structures housing nuclear facilities must qualify against much stringent requirements of operating and accidental loads than conventional structures. One such accidental load that must be considered while assessing the performance of safety related RC structures is impact load. It is known that the behavior of concrete/reinforced concrete structures is strongly influenced by the loading rate. The RC structural members subjected to impact loads behave quite differently as compared to the same subjected to quasi-static loading due to the strain-rate influence on strength, stiffness, and ductility as well as to the activation of inertia forces. Moreover, for concrete structures, which exhibit damage and fracture phenomena, the failure mode and cracking pattern depend significantly on loading rate. In general, there is a tendency that with the increase of loading rate the failure mode changes from mode-I to mixed mode. In order to assess the performance of existing structures against impact loads that may be generated mainly due to man-made accidental conditions, it is important to have models that can realistically predict the impact behavior of concrete structures. The present paper focuses on a relatively new approach for 3D finite element analysis of RC structures under impact loads. The approach uses rate sensitive micro-plane model as constitutive law for concrete, while the strain-rate influence is captured by the activation energy. Inertia forces are implicitly accounted for through dynamic finite element analysis. It is shown with the help of different examples that the approach can very well simulate the behavior of RC structural elements under high rate loading. (author)

  6. Impact assessment and policy learning in the European Commission

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruddy, Thomas F.; Hilty, Lorenz M.

    2008-01-01

    Governance for sustainable development requires policy coherence and Environmental Policy Integration, which are being hindered by difficulties coordinating the two separate impact assessment processes being conducted in the European Commission. One of them, the Commission-wide Impact Assessment process, looks primarily at EU-internal impacts, whereas the other one, Sustainability Impact Assessment (SIA) in DG Trade, looks outward to other countries and intergovernmental organizations. Ideally, the two processes should complement one another, especially as the two are set to continue being done in parallel. The paper uses a case study of the reform of the European sugar regime under a World Trade Organization ruling to demonstrate how the two impact assessment processes could better complement one another. Feedback from the experience had with existing trade agreements could then promote policy learning and inform the negotiations on new agreements. The number of new bilateral and Regional Trade Agreements is expected to continue rising, thus increasing the importance of the Commission-wide Impact Assessment process required for them

  7. The Parallel System for Integrating Impact Models and Sectors (pSIMS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elliott, Joshua; Kelly, David; Chryssanthacopoulos, James; Glotter, Michael; Jhunjhnuwala, Kanika; Best, Neil; Wilde, Michael; Foster, Ian

    2014-01-01

    We present a framework for massively parallel climate impact simulations: the parallel System for Integrating Impact Models and Sectors (pSIMS). This framework comprises a) tools for ingesting and converting large amounts of data to a versatile datatype based on a common geospatial grid; b) tools for translating this datatype into custom formats for site-based models; c) a scalable parallel framework for performing large ensemble simulations, using any one of a number of different impacts models, on clusters, supercomputers, distributed grids, or clouds; d) tools and data standards for reformatting outputs to common datatypes for analysis and visualization; and e) methodologies for aggregating these datatypes to arbitrary spatial scales such as administrative and environmental demarcations. By automating many time-consuming and error-prone aspects of large-scale climate impacts studies, pSIMS accelerates computational research, encourages model intercomparison, and enhances reproducibility of simulation results. We present the pSIMS design and use example assessments to demonstrate its multi-model, multi-scale, and multi-sector versatility.

  8. Assessing Impact Submissions for REF 2014: An Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manville, Catriona; Guthrie, Susan; Henham, Marie-Louise; Garrod, Bryn; Sousa, Sonia; Kirtley, Anne; Castle-Clarke, Sophie; Ling, Tom

    2015-01-01

    The Research Excellence Framework (REF) is a new system for assessing the quality of research in UK higher education institutions (HEIs). For the first time, part of the assessment included the wider impact of research. RAND Europe was commissioned to evaluate the assessment process of the impact element of REF submissions, and to explore the…

  9. Development of a Watershed-Scale Long-Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment Model with the Asymptotic Curve Number Regression Equation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jichul Ryu

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available In this study, 52 asymptotic Curve Number (CN regression equations were developed for combinations of representative land covers and hydrologic soil groups. In addition, to overcome the limitations of the original Long-term Hydrologic Impact Assessment (L-THIA model when it is applied to larger watersheds, a watershed-scale L-THIA Asymptotic CN (ACN regression equation model (watershed-scale L-THIA ACN model was developed by integrating the asymptotic CN regressions and various modules for direct runoff/baseflow/channel routing. The watershed-scale L-THIA ACN model was applied to four watersheds in South Korea to evaluate the accuracy of its streamflow prediction. The coefficient of determination (R2 and Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE values for observed versus simulated streamflows over intervals of eight days were greater than 0.6 for all four of the watersheds. The watershed-scale L-THIA ACN model, including the asymptotic CN regression equation method, can simulate long-term streamflow sufficiently well with the ten parameters that have been added for the characterization of streamflow.

  10. AN OVERVIEW OF SWEDISH RESEARCH ON IMPACT ASSESSMENT

    OpenAIRE

    CHARLOTTA FAITH-ELL

    2015-01-01

    This statement aims at giving an overview of the research on impact assessment in Sweden. It takes a point of departure at the introduction of impact assessment in 1991 describing the Swedish research until today. Since the introduction of EIA in the Swedish legislation in the 1990s, a large number of PhD dissertations have been dealing with various aspects of impact assessment. An estimation based on the literature search is that about 20 PhD theses, in which the core of the research is rela...

  11. Ensemble catchment hydrological modelling for climate change impact analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vansteenkiste, Thomas; Ntegeka, Victor; Willems, Patrick

    2014-05-01

    , more than in high flow conditions. Hence, the mechanism of the slow flow component simulation requires further attention. It is concluded that a multi-model ensemble approach where different plausible model structures are applied, is extremely useful. It improves the reliability of climate change impact results and allows decision making to be based on uncertainty assessment that includes model structure related uncertainties. References: Ntegeka, V., Baguis, P., Roulin, E., Willems, P., 2014. Developing tailored climate change scenarios for hydrological impact assessments. Journal of Hydrology, 508C, 307-321 Vansteenkiste, Th., Tavakoli, M., Ntegeka, V., Willems, P., De Smedt, F., Batelaan, O., 2013. Climate change impact on river flows and catchment hydrology: a comparison of two spatially distributed models. Hydrological Processes, 27(25), 3649-3662. Vansteenkiste, Th., Tavakoli, M., Ntegeka, V., Van Steenbergen, N., De Smedt, F., Batelaan, O., Pereira, F., Willems, P., 2014. Intercomparison of five lumped and distributed models for catchment runoff and extreme flow simulation. Journal of Hydrology, in press. Vansteenkiste, Th., Tavakoli, M., Ntegeka, V., De Smedt, F., Batelaan, O., Pereira, F., Willems, P., 2014. Intercomparison of climate scenario impact predictions by a lumped and distributed model ensemble. Journal of Hydrology, in revision.

  12. Impacts of correcting the inter-variable correlation of climate model outputs on hydrological modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Jie; Li, Chao; Brissette, François P.; Chen, Hua; Wang, Mingna; Essou, Gilles R. C.

    2018-05-01

    Bias correction is usually implemented prior to using climate model outputs for impact studies. However, bias correction methods that are commonly used treat climate variables independently and often ignore inter-variable dependencies. The effects of ignoring such dependencies on impact studies need to be investigated. This study aims to assess the impacts of correcting the inter-variable correlation of climate model outputs on hydrological modeling. To this end, a joint bias correction (JBC) method which corrects the joint distribution of two variables as a whole is compared with an independent bias correction (IBC) method; this is considered in terms of correcting simulations of precipitation and temperature from 26 climate models for hydrological modeling over 12 watersheds located in various climate regimes. The results show that the simulated precipitation and temperature are considerably biased not only in the individual distributions, but also in their correlations, which in turn result in biased hydrological simulations. In addition to reducing the biases of the individual characteristics of precipitation and temperature, the JBC method can also reduce the bias in precipitation-temperature (P-T) correlations. In terms of hydrological modeling, the JBC method performs significantly better than the IBC method for 11 out of the 12 watersheds over the calibration period. For the validation period, the advantages of the JBC method are greatly reduced as the performance becomes dependent on the watershed, GCM and hydrological metric considered. For arid/tropical and snowfall-rainfall-mixed watersheds, JBC performs better than IBC. For snowfall- or rainfall-dominated watersheds, however, the two methods behave similarly, with IBC performing somewhat better than JBC. Overall, the results emphasize the advantages of correcting the P-T correlation when using climate model-simulated precipitation and temperature to assess the impact of climate change on watershed

  13. Environmental impact assessment for uranium mine, mill and in situ leach projects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-11-01

    Environmental impact assessments and/or statements are an inherent part of any uranium mining project and are a prerequisite for the future opening of an exploitation and its final closure and decommissioning. Since they contain all information related to the physical, biological, chemical and economic condition of the areas where industrial projects are proposed or planned, they present invaluable guidance for the planning and implementation of environmental mitigation as well as environmental restoration after the mine is closed. They further yield relevant data on the socio-economic impacts of a project. The present report provides guidance on the environmental impact assessment of uranium mining and milling projects, including in situ leach projects which will be useful for companies in the process of planning uranium developments as well as for the regional or national authorities who will assess such developments. Additional information and advice is given through environmental case histories from five different countries. Those case histories are not meant to be prescriptions for conducting assessments nor even firm recommendations, but should serve as examples for the type and extent of work involved in assessments. A model assessment and licensing process is recommended based on the experience of the five countries. 1 fig., 5 tabs.

  14. Environmental impact assessment for uranium mine, mill and in situ leach projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1997-11-01

    Environmental impact assessments and/or statements are an inherent part of any uranium mining project and are a prerequisite for the future opening of an exploitation and its final closure and decommissioning. Since they contain all information related to the physical, biological, chemical and economic condition of the areas where industrial projects are proposed or planned, they present invaluable guidance for the planning and implementation of environmental mitigation as well as environmental restoration after the mine is closed. They further yield relevant data on the socio-economic impacts of a project. The present report provides guidance on the environmental impact assessment of uranium mining and milling projects, including in situ leach projects which will be useful for companies in the process of planning uranium developments as well as for the regional or national authorities who will assess such developments. Additional information and advice is given through environmental case histories from five different countries. Those case histories are not meant to be prescriptions for conducting assessments nor even firm recommendations, but should serve as examples for the type and extent of work involved in assessments. A model assessment and licensing process is recommended based on the experience of the five countries

  15. Species for the screening assessment. Columbia River Comprehensive Impact Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Becker, J.M.; Brandt, C.A.; Dauble, D.D.; Maughan, A.D.; O'Neil, T.K.

    1996-03-01

    Because of past nuclear production operations along the Columbia River, there is intense public and tribal interest in assessing any residual Hanford Site related contamination along the river from the Hanford Reach to the Pacific Ocean. The Columbia River Comprehensive Impact Assessment was proposed to address these concerns. The assessment of the Columbia River is being conducted in phases. The initial phase is a screening assessment of the risk, which addresses current environmental conditions for a range of potential uses. One component of the screening assessment estimates the risk from contaminants in the Columbia River to the environment. The objective of the ecological risk assessment is to determine whether contaminants from the Columbia River pose a significant threat to selected receptor species that exist in the river and riparian communities of the study area. This report (1) identifies the receptor species selected for the screening assessment of ecological risk and (2) describes the selection process. The species selection process consisted of two tiers. In Tier 1, a master species list was developed that included many plant and animal species known to occur in the aquatic and riparian systems of the Columbia River between Priest Rapids Dam and the Columbia River estuary. This master list was reduced to 368 species that occur in the study area (Priest Rapids Dam to McNary Dam). In Tier 2, the 181 Tier 1 species were qualitatively ranked based on a scoring of their potential exposure and sensitivity to contaminants using a conceptual exposure model for the study area

  16. Species for the screening assessment. Columbia River Comprehensive Impact Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Becker, J.M.; Brandt, C.A.; Dauble, D.D.; Maughan, A.D.; O`Neil, T.K.

    1996-03-01

    Because of past nuclear production operations along the Columbia River, there is intense public and tribal interest in assessing any residual Hanford Site related contamination along the river from the Hanford Reach to the Pacific Ocean. The Columbia River Comprehensive Impact Assessment was proposed to address these concerns. The assessment of the Columbia River is being conducted in phases. The initial phase is a screening assessment of the risk, which addresses current environmental conditions for a range of potential uses. One component of the screening assessment estimates the risk from contaminants in the Columbia River to the environment. The objective of the ecological risk assessment is to determine whether contaminants from the Columbia River pose a significant threat to selected receptor species that exist in the river and riparian communities of the study area. This report (1) identifies the receptor species selected for the screening assessment of ecological risk and (2) describes the selection process. The species selection process consisted of two tiers. In Tier 1, a master species list was developed that included many plant and animal species known to occur in the aquatic and riparian systems of the Columbia River between Priest Rapids Dam and the Columbia River estuary. This master list was reduced to 368 species that occur in the study area (Priest Rapids Dam to McNary Dam). In Tier 2, the 181 Tier 1 species were qualitatively ranked based on a scoring of their potential exposure and sensitivity to contaminants using a conceptual exposure model for the study area.

  17. A Model to Assess the Behavioral Impacts of Consultative Knowledge Based Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mak, Brenda; Lyytinen, Kalle

    1997-01-01

    This research model studies the behavioral impacts of consultative knowledge based systems (KBS). A study of graduate students explored to what extent their decisions were affected by user participation in updating the knowledge base; ambiguity of decision setting; routinization of usage; and source credibility of the expertise embedded in the…

  18. Development of Computer Models for the Assessment of Foreign Body Impact Events on Composite Structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bucinell, Ronald B.

    1997-01-01

    The objective of this project was to model the 5-3/4 inch pressure vessels used on the NASA RTOP program in an attempt to learn more about how impact damage forms and what are the residual effects of the resulting damage. A global-local finite element model was developed for the bottle and the states of stress in the bottles were determined down to the constituent level. The experimental data that was generated on the NASA RTOP program was not in a form that enabled the model developed under this grant to be correlated with the experimental data. As a result of this exercise it is recommended that an experimental program be designed using statistical design of experiment techniques to generate data that can be used to isolate the phenomenon that control the formation of impact damage. This data should include residual property determinations so that models for post impact structural integrity can be developed. It is also recommended that the global-local methodology be integrated directly into the finite element code. This will require considerable code development.

  19. A system dynamics modelling approach to assess the impact of launching a new nicotine product on population health outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Andrew; Camacho, Oscar M

    2017-06-01

    In 2012 the US FDA suggested the use of mathematical models to assess the impact of releasing new nicotine or tobacco products on population health outcomes. A model based on system dynamics methodology was developed to project the potential effects of a new nicotine product at a population level. A model representing traditional smoking populations (never, current and former smokers) and calibrated using historical data was extended to a two-product model by including electronic cigarettes use statuses. Smoking mechanisms, such as product initiation, switching, transition to dual use, and cessation, were represented as flows between smoking statuses (stocks) and the potential effect of smoking renormalisation through a feedback system. Mortality over a 50-year period (2000-2050) was the health outcome of interest, and was compared between two scenarios, with and without e-cigarettes being introduced. The results suggest that by 2050, smoking prevalence in adults was 12.4% in the core model and 9.7% (including dual users) in the counterfactual. Smoking-related mortality was 8.4% and 8.1%, respectively. The results suggested an overall beneficial effect from launching e-cigarettes and that system dynamics could be a useful approach to assess the potential population health effects of nicotine products when epidemiological data are not available. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Life cycle assessment based environmental impact estimation model for pre-stressed concrete beam bridge in the early design phase

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Kyong Ju; Yun, Won Gun; Cho, Namho; Ha, Jikwang

    2017-01-01

    The late rise in global concern for environmental issues such as global warming and air pollution is accentuating the need for environmental assessments in the construction industry. Promptly evaluating the environmental loads of the various design alternatives during the early stages of a construction project and adopting the most environmentally sustainable candidate is therefore of large importance. Yet, research on the early evaluation of a construction project's environmental load in order to aid the decision making process is hitherto lacking. In light of this dilemma, this study proposes a model for estimating the environmental load by employing only the most basic information accessible during the early design phases of a project for the pre-stressed concrete (PSC) beam bridge, the most common bridge structure. Firstly, a life cycle assessment (LCA) was conducted on the data from 99 bridges by integrating the bills of quantities (BOQ) with a life cycle inventory (LCI) database. The processed data was then utilized to construct a case based reasoning (CBR) model for estimating the environmental load. The accuracy of the estimation model was then validated using five test cases; the model's mean absolute error rates (MAER) for the total environmental load was calculated as 7.09%. Such test results were shown to be superior compared to those obtained from a multiple-regression based model and a slab area base-unit analysis model. Henceforth application of this model during the early stages of a project is expected to highly complement environmentally friendly designs and construction by facilitating the swift evaluation of the environmental load from multiple standpoints. - Highlights: • This study is to develop the model of assessing the environmental impacts on LCA. • Bills of quantity from completed designs of PSC Beam were linked with the LCI DB. • Previous cases were used to estimate the environmental load of new case by CBR model. • CBR

  1. Life cycle assessment based environmental impact estimation model for pre-stressed concrete beam bridge in the early design phase

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Kyong Ju, E-mail: kjkim@cau.ac.kr; Yun, Won Gun, E-mail: ogun78@naver.com; Cho, Namho, E-mail: nhc51@cau.ac.kr; Ha, Jikwang, E-mail: wlrhkd29@gmail.com

    2017-05-15

    The late rise in global concern for environmental issues such as global warming and air pollution is accentuating the need for environmental assessments in the construction industry. Promptly evaluating the environmental loads of the various design alternatives during the early stages of a construction project and adopting the most environmentally sustainable candidate is therefore of large importance. Yet, research on the early evaluation of a construction project's environmental load in order to aid the decision making process is hitherto lacking. In light of this dilemma, this study proposes a model for estimating the environmental load by employing only the most basic information accessible during the early design phases of a project for the pre-stressed concrete (PSC) beam bridge, the most common bridge structure. Firstly, a life cycle assessment (LCA) was conducted on the data from 99 bridges by integrating the bills of quantities (BOQ) with a life cycle inventory (LCI) database. The processed data was then utilized to construct a case based reasoning (CBR) model for estimating the environmental load. The accuracy of the estimation model was then validated using five test cases; the model's mean absolute error rates (MAER) for the total environmental load was calculated as 7.09%. Such test results were shown to be superior compared to those obtained from a multiple-regression based model and a slab area base-unit analysis model. Henceforth application of this model during the early stages of a project is expected to highly complement environmentally friendly designs and construction by facilitating the swift evaluation of the environmental load from multiple standpoints. - Highlights: • This study is to develop the model of assessing the environmental impacts on LCA. • Bills of quantity from completed designs of PSC Beam were linked with the LCI DB. • Previous cases were used to estimate the environmental load of new case by CBR model. • CBR

  2. Uncertainty of a hydrological climate change impact assessment - Is it really all about climate uncertainty?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Honti, Mark; Reichert, Peter; Scheidegger, Andreas; Stamm, Christian

    2013-04-01

    Climate change impact assessments have become more and more popular in hydrology since the middle 1980's with another boost after the publication of the IPCC AR4 report. During hundreds of impact studies a quasi-standard methodology emerged, which is mainly shaped by the growing public demand for predicting how water resources management or flood protection should change in the close future. The ``standard'' workflow considers future climate under a specific IPCC emission scenario simulated by global circulation models (GCMs), possibly downscaled by a regional climate model (RCM) and/or a stochastic weather generator. The output from the climate models is typically corrected for bias before feeding it into a calibrated hydrological model, which is run on the past and future meteorological data to analyse the impacts of climate change on the hydrological indicators of interest. The impact predictions are as uncertain as any forecast that tries to describe the behaviour of an extremely complex system decades into the future. Future climate predictions are uncertain due to the scenario uncertainty and the GCM model uncertainty that is obvious on finer resolution than continental scale. Like in any hierarchical model system, uncertainty propagates through the descendant components. Downscaling increases uncertainty with the deficiencies of RCMs and/or weather generators. Bias correction adds a strong deterministic shift to the input data. Finally the predictive uncertainty of the hydrological model ends the cascade that leads to the total uncertainty of the hydrological impact assessment. There is an emerging consensus between many studies on the relative importance of the different uncertainty sources. The prevailing perception is that GCM uncertainty dominates hydrological impact studies. There are only few studies, which found that the predictive uncertainty of hydrological models can be in the same range or even larger than climatic uncertainty. We carried out a

  3. Economic assessment model architecture for AGC/AVLIS selection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoglund, R.L.

    1984-01-01

    The economic assessment model architecture described provides the flexibility and completeness in economic analysis that the selection between AGC and AVLIS demands. Process models which are technology-specific will provide the first-order responses of process performance and cost to variations in process parameters. The economics models can be used to test the impacts of alternative deployment scenarios for a technology. Enterprise models provide global figures of merit for evaluating the DOE perspective on the uranium enrichment enterprise, and business analysis models compute the financial parameters from the private investor's viewpoint

  4. Coupled water-energy modelling to assess climate change impacts on the Iberian Power System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pereira Cardenal, Silvio Javier; Madsen, H.; Riegels, N.

    and marginal costs of the power producers. Two effects of climate change on the power system were studied: changes in the hydropower production caused by changes in precipitation and temperature, and changes in the electricity demand over the year caused by temperature changes. A rainfall-runoff model......Water resources systems and power systems are strongly linked; water is needed for most power generation technologies, and electricity is required in every stage of water usage. In the Iberian Peninsula, climate change is expected to have a negative impact on the power system: changes in runoff...... was established to estimate the impact of precipitation and temperature changes on reservoir inflows. The model was calibrated using observed precipitation, temperature and river discharge time series. Potential evapotranspiration was estimated from temperature data, and snow accumulation/melt was modelled using...

  5. A climate robust integrated modelling framework for regional impact assessment of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janssen, Gijs; Bakker, Alexander; van Ek, Remco; Groot, Annemarie; Kroes, Joop; Kuiper, Marijn; Schipper, Peter; van Walsum, Paul; Wamelink, Wieger; Mol, Janet

    2013-04-01

    Decision making towards climate proofing the water management of regional catchments can benefit greatly from the availability of a climate robust integrated modelling framework, capable of a consistent assessment of climate change impacts on the various interests present in the catchments. In the Netherlands, much effort has been devoted to developing state-of-the-art regional dynamic groundwater models with a very high spatial resolution (25x25 m2). Still, these models are not completely satisfactory to decision makers because the modelling concepts do not take into account feedbacks between meteorology, vegetation/crop growth, and hydrology. This introduces uncertainties in forecasting the effects of climate change on groundwater, surface water, agricultural yields, and development of groundwater dependent terrestrial ecosystems. These uncertainties add to the uncertainties about the predictions on climate change itself. In order to create an integrated, climate robust modelling framework, we coupled existing model codes on hydrology, agriculture and nature that are currently in use at the different research institutes in the Netherlands. The modelling framework consists of the model codes MODFLOW (groundwater flow), MetaSWAP (vadose zone), WOFOST (crop growth), SMART2-SUMO2 (soil-vegetation) and NTM3 (nature valuation). MODFLOW, MetaSWAP and WOFOST are coupled online (i.e. exchange information on time step basis). Thus, changes in meteorology and CO2-concentrations affect crop growth and feedbacks between crop growth, vadose zone water movement and groundwater recharge are accounted for. The model chain WOFOST-MetaSWAP-MODFLOW generates hydrological input for the ecological prediction model combination SMART2-SUMO2-NTM3. The modelling framework was used to support the regional water management decision making process in the 267 km2 Baakse Beek-Veengoot catchment in the east of the Netherlands. Computations were performed for regionalized 30-year climate change

  6. Life Cycle Thinking in Impact Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bidstrup, Morten

    2015-01-01

    It has been advocated that life cycle thinking (LCT) should be applied in impact assessment (IA) to a greater extent, since some development proposals pose a risk of significant impacts throughout the interconnected activities of product systems. Multiple authors have proposed the usage of life...

  7. Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modeling (LUCHEM). I: Model intercomparison with current land use

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breuer, L.; Huisman, J.A.; Willems, P.; Bormann, H.; Bronstert, A.; Croke, B.F.W.; Frede, H.-G.; Graff, T.; Hubrechts, L.; Jakeman, A.J.; Kite, G.; Lanini, J.; Leavesley, G.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; Lindstrom, G.; Seibert, J.; Sivapalan, M.; Viney, N.R.

    2009-01-01

    This paper introduces the project on 'Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modeling (LUCHEM)' that aims at investigating the envelope of predictions on changes in hydrological fluxes due to land use change. As part of a series of four papers, this paper outlines the motivation and setup of LUCHEM, and presents a model intercomparison for the present-day simulation results. Such an intercomparison provides a valuable basis to investigate the effects of different model structures on model predictions and paves the ground for the analysis of the performance of multi-model ensembles and the reliability of the scenario predictions in companion papers. In this study, we applied a set of 10 lumped, semi-lumped and fully distributed hydrological models that have been previously used in land use change studies to the low mountainous Dill catchment, Germany. Substantial differences in model performance were observed with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies ranging from 0.53 to 0.92. Differences in model performance were attributed to (1) model input data, (2) model calibration and (3) the physical basis of the models. The models were applied with two sets of input data: an original and a homogenized data set. This homogenization of precipitation, temperature and leaf area index was performed to reduce the variation between the models. Homogenization improved the comparability of model simulations and resulted in a reduced average bias, although some variation in model data input remained. The effect of the physical differences between models on the long-term water balance was mainly attributed to differences in how models represent evapotranspiration. Semi-lumped and lumped conceptual models slightly outperformed the fully distributed and physically based models. This was attributed to the automatic model calibration typically used for this type of models. Overall, however, we conclude that there was no superior model if several measures of model

  8. Handbook for value-impact assessments of NRC regulatory actions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mullen, M.F.; DiPalo, A.J.

    1985-01-01

    According to current Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) procedures, value-impact (cost-benefit) assessments must be prepared for all rulemaking actions and for a broad range of other regulatory requirements and guidance. Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methods furnish an important part of the information base for these assessments. PRA methods are frequently the principal quantitative tool for estimating the benefits (e.g., public risk reduction) of proposed regulatory actions. In December 1983, the NRC published A Handbook for Value-Impact Assessment, NUREG/CR-3568, which provides a set of systematic procedures for performing value-impact assessments. The Handbook contains methods, data, and sources of information that can assist the regulatory analyst in conducting such assessments. The use of probabilistic risk analysis to estimate the benefits of proposed regulatory actions is described. Procedures and methods are also given for evaluating the costs and other consequences associated with regulatory actions. The Handbook has been adopted by the NRC as the recommended guideline for value impact assessments. This paper presents the background, objectives, and scope of the Handbook, describes the value-impact assessment methods (including the use of probabilistic risk assessment to estimate benefits), and discusses a selection of current and planned applications, with examples to illustrate how the methods are used

  9. Models and parameters for environmental radiological assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, C.W.

    1983-01-01

    This article reviews the forthcoming book Models and Parameters for Environmental Radiological Assessments, which presents a unified compilation of models and parameters for assessing the impact on man of radioactive discharges, both routine and accidental, into the environment. Models presented in this book include those developed for the prediction of atmospheric and hydrologic transport and deposition, for terrestrial and aquatic food-chain bioaccumulation, and for internal and external dosimetry. Summaries are presented for each of the transport and dosimetry areas previously for each of the transport and dosimetry areas previously mentioned, and details are available in the literature cited. A chapter of example problems illustrates many of the methodologies presented throughout the text. Models and parameters presented are based on the results of extensive literature reviews and evaluations performed primarily by the staff of the Health and Safety Research Division of Oak Ridge National Laboratory

  10. Improved GIS-based Methods for Traffic Noise Impact Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Otto Anker; Bloch, Karsten Sand

    1996-01-01

    When vector-based GIS-packages are used for traffic noise impact assessments, the buffer-technique is usually employed for the study: 1. For each road segment buffer-zones representing different noise-intervals are generated, 2. The buffers from all road segments are smoothed together, and 3....... The number of buildings within the buffers are enumerated. This technique provides an inaccurate assessment of the noise diffusion since it does not correct for buildings barrier and reflection to noise. The paper presents the results from a research project where the traditional noise buffer technique...... was compared with a new method which includes these corrections. Both methods follow the Common Nordic Noise Calculation Model, although the traditional buffer technique ignores parts of the model. The basis for the work was a digital map of roads and building polygons, combined with a traffic- and road...

  11. Implications of regional improvement in global climate models for agricultural impact research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramirez-Villegas, Julian; Thornton, Philip K; Jarvis, Andy; Challinor, Andrew J

    2013-01-01

    Global climate models (GCMs) have become increasingly important for climate change science and provide the basis for most impact studies. Since impact models are highly sensitive to input climate data, GCM skill is crucial for getting better short-, medium- and long-term outlooks for agricultural production and food security. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) phase 5 ensemble is likely to underpin the majority of climate impact assessments over the next few years. We assess 24 CMIP3 and 26 CMIP5 simulations of present climate against climate observations for five tropical regions, as well as regional improvements in model skill and, through literature review, the sensitivities of impact estimates to model error. Climatological means of seasonal mean temperatures depict mean errors between 1 and 18 ° C (2–130% with respect to mean), whereas seasonal precipitation and wet-day frequency depict larger errors, often offsetting observed means and variability beyond 100%. Simulated interannual climate variability in GCMs warrants particular attention, given that no single GCM matches observations in more than 30% of the areas for monthly precipitation and wet-day frequency, 50% for diurnal range and 70% for mean temperatures. We report improvements in mean climate skill of 5–15% for climatological mean temperatures, 3–5% for diurnal range and 1–2% in precipitation. At these improvement rates, we estimate that at least 5–30 years of CMIP work is required to improve regional temperature simulations and at least 30–50 years for precipitation simulations, for these to be directly input into impact models. We conclude with some recommendations for the use of CMIP5 in agricultural impact studies. (letter)

  12. Developing the RIAM method (rapid impact assessment matrix) in the context of impact significance assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ijaes, Asko; Kuitunen, Markku T.; Jalava, Kimmo

    2010-01-01

    In this paper the applicability of the RIAM method (rapid impact assessment matrix) is evaluated in the context of impact significance assessment. The methodological issues considered in the study are: 1) to test the possibilities of enlarging the scoring system used in the method, and 2) to compare the significance classifications of RIAM and unaided decision-making to estimate the consistency between these methods. The data used consisted of projects for which funding had been applied for via the European Union's Regional Development Trust in the area of Central Finland. Cases were evaluated with respect to their environmental, social and economic impacts using an assessment panel. The results showed the scoring framework used in RIAM could be modified according to the problem situation at hand, which enhances its application potential. However the changes made in criteria B did not significantly affect the final ratings of the method, which indicates the high importance of criteria A1 (importance) and A2 (magnitude) to the overall results. The significance classes obtained by the two methods diverged notably. In general the ratings given by RIAM tended to be smaller compared to intuitive judgement implying that the RIAM method may be somewhat conservative in character.

  13. Cross-border cooperation in inner Scandinavia: A territorial impact assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Medeiros, Eduardo, E-mail: emedeiros@campus.ul.pt

    2017-01-15

    The use of territorial impact assessment procedures is gaining increasing relevance in the European Union policy evaluation processes. However, no concrete territorial impact assessment tools have been applied to evaluating EU cross-border programmes. In this light, this article provides a pioneering analysis on how to make use of territorial impact assessment procedures on cross-border programmes. More specifically, it assesses the main territorial impacts of the Inner Scandinavian INTERREG-A sub-programme, in the last 20 years (1996–2016). It focuses on its impacts on reducing the barrier effect, in all its main dimensions, posed by the presence of the administrative border. The results indicate a quite positive impact of the analysed cross-border cooperation programme, in reducing the barrier effect in all its main dimensions. The obtained potential impact values for each analysed dimension indicate, however, that the ‘economy-technology’ dimension was particularly favoured, following its strategic intervention focus in stimulating the economic activity and the attractiveness of the border area. - Highlights: • A territorial impact assessment method to assess cross-border cooperation is proposed. • This method rationale is based on the main dimensions of the barrier effect. • This method identified positive impacts in all analysed dimensions. • The economy-technological dimension was the most positively impacted one.

  14. Impact assessment of the forest fires on Oarai Research and Development Center Waste Treatment Facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shimomura, Yusuke; Kitamura, Ryoichi; Hanari, Akira; Sato, Isamu

    2016-03-01

    In response to new standards for regulating waste treatment facility ('new regulatory standards'; December 18, 2013 enforcement), it was carried out impact assessment of forest fires on the Waste Treatment Facility existed in Oarai Research and Development Center of Japan Atomic Energy Agency. At first, a fire spread scenario of forest fires was assumed. The intensity of forest fires was evaluated from field surveys, forest fire evaluation models and so on. As models of forest fire intensity evaluation, Rothermel Model and Canadian Forest Fire Behavior Prediction (FBP) System were used. Impact assessment of radiant heat to the facility was carried out, and temperature change of outer walls for the assumed forest fires was estimated. The outer wall temperature of facility was estimated around 160degC at the maximum, it was revealed that it doesn't reach allowable temperature limit. Consequently, it doesn't influence the strength of concrete. In addition, a probability of fire breach was estimated to be about 20%. This report illustrates an example of evaluation of forest fires for the new regulatory standards through impact assessment of the forest fires on the Waste Treatment Facility. (author)

  15. Assessing the social impacts of the biofuel lifecycle

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Andreas; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky

    In order to assess the social impacts of the biofuel lifecycle, Social Life Cycle Assessment (SLCA) may be a promising tool. However, as this review study points out, several problems are still to be solved. SLCA can be defined as a tool for assessing a product’s or service’s total impact on human...... health and well-being throughout its life cycle. During the recent years several different approaches towards SLCA have been developing. This review reveals a broad variety in how the SLCAs address all methodological steps. One of the main differences is in the choice and formulation of social indicators....... The indicators address a wide variety of issues; some approaches focus on impacts created in the very close proximity of the processes included in the product system, whereas others focus on the more remote societal consequences. The perception of social impacts is thus very varying. An assessment focussing...

  16. The radiological impact of radionuclides dispersed on a regional and global scale: Methods for assessment and their application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1985-01-01

    The basic features of models, developed to assess the radiological impact of radionuclides that become dispersed on a regional or global scale, have been reviewed. Particular attention has been given to identifying the important processes that need to be modelled in order to make a reliable estimate of the radiological impact, rather than attempting to judge which models are the most appropriate. Judgements on the latter will be sensitive to the particular application; in some cases a very simple approach may be sufficient, whereas in others a more rigorous analysis may be necessary. Two aspects are important in assessing the radiological impact: these are the exposure of critical groups, and the collective dose in the exposed population

  17. Condensing a detailed groundwater flow and contaminant transport model into a geosphere model for environmental and safety assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chan Tin; Melnyk, Ted

    2004-01-01

    AECL (Atomic Energy of Canada Limited) is preparing an Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) to present its case to a federal environmental assessment panel for a concept for disposal of Canada's nuclear fuel waste. The concept is that of a sealed vault constructed at a depth of 500 to 1,000 m in plutonic rock of the Canadian Shield. An analysis of disposal system performance using a probabilistic system variability analysis code (SYVAC3-CC3) has been an important component of the assessment of the long-term safety and environmental impacts of the disposal system. In the assessment, the disposal system is divided into vault, geosphere and biosphere, each of which is represented by a computationally simplified model. This paper summarizes the procedure for condensing a detailed 3-D finite-element hydrogeological model into the SYVAC3-CC3 geosphere model, GEONET. (author)

  18. Development of an environmental impact model for the steel industry in Libya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaghinin, Mansur Salem

    The global demand for steel is rising due to the infrastructural development of emergent economies in countries such as India, China, Thailand and Libya. Consequently, global steel production has increased dramatically and is expected to grow further in the future. Processing iron and steel is associated with a number of sustainable development challenges, including various economic, environmental and social issues. The increasing prominence of environmental issues in international and national political discourse, including the developing countries, means that stakeholders demand that manufacturers minimise the negative impacts of their operations.The steel industry must be able to measure and assess its environmental impacts and demonstrate continuous improvements. This requires an environmental management strategy to manage and minimise impacts on the environment. This study focuses on developing an environmental impacts model in steel industry to investigate the most important environmental parameters and their importance in order to mitigate environmental impacts.Based on the literature review and the elements that are considered as waste (derived from the waste survey in Libyan iron and steel industry), the potential environmental impacts of the steel industry are identified as criteria and sub-criteria. Then, a model is built using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) software based on the identified criteria and sub-criteria.The model also illustrates the overall goal which is creating environmental impacts model for steel industry, in addition, criteria and sub-criteria are listed to clarify the situation and make the analysis clearer and understandable. Pair wise comparisons are used to derive accurate ratio scale priorities.The results are analysed and presented as prioritised list of environmental impacts. Moreover, a series of sensitivity analyses are conducted to investigate the impact of changing the priority of the criteria on the alternatives

  19. Privacy Impact Assessment (PIA) Repository

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Veterans Affairs — This repository contains Privacy Impact Assessments (PIA) that have been vetted/approved. Section 208 of the Electronic Government Act of 2002 (E-Gov Act) requires...

  20. Screening assessment and requirements for a comprehensive assessment: Volume 1, Draft. Columbia River comprehensive impact assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-04-01

    To evaluate the impact to the Columbia River from the Hanford Site-derived contaminants, the U.S. Department of Energy, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and Washington State Department of Ecology initiated a study referred to as the Columbia River Comprehensive Impact Assessment (CRCIA). To address concerns about the scope and direction of CRCIA as well as enhance regulator, tribal, stockholder, and public involvement, the CRCIA Management Team was formed in August 1995. The Team agreed to conduct CRCIA using a phased approach. The initial phase, includes two components: 1) a screening assessment to evaluate the potential impact to the river, resulting from current levels of Hanford-derived contaminants in order to support decisions on Interim Remedial Measures, and 2) a definition of the essential work remaining to provide an acceptable comprehensive river impact assessment. The screening assessment is described in Part I of this report. The essential work remaining is Part II of this report. The objective of the screening assessment is to identify areas where the greatest potential exists for adverse effects on humans or the environment. Part I of this report discusses the scope, technical approach, and results of the screening assessment. Part II defines a new paradigm for predecisional participation by those affected by Hanford cleanup decisions.

  1. Screening assessment and requirements for a comprehensive assessment: Volume 1, Draft. Columbia River comprehensive impact assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1997-04-01

    To evaluate the impact to the Columbia River from the Hanford Site-derived contaminants, the U.S. Department of Energy, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and Washington State Department of Ecology initiated a study referred to as the Columbia River Comprehensive Impact Assessment (CRCIA). To address concerns about the scope and direction of CRCIA as well as enhance regulator, tribal, stockholder, and public involvement, the CRCIA Management Team was formed in August 1995. The Team agreed to conduct CRCIA using a phased approach. The initial phase, includes two components: 1) a screening assessment to evaluate the potential impact to the river, resulting from current levels of Hanford-derived contaminants in order to support decisions on Interim Remedial Measures, and 2) a definition of the essential work remaining to provide an acceptable comprehensive river impact assessment. The screening assessment is described in Part I of this report. The essential work remaining is Part II of this report. The objective of the screening assessment is to identify areas where the greatest potential exists for adverse effects on humans or the environment. Part I of this report discusses the scope, technical approach, and results of the screening assessment. Part II defines a new paradigm for predecisional participation by those affected by Hanford cleanup decisions

  2. Integrated impact assessment of climate and socio-economic change on dairy farms in a watershed in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Paas, Wim; Kanellopoulos, Argyris; Ven, van de Gerrie; Reidsma, Pytrik

    2016-01-01

    Climate and socio-economic change will affect the land use and the economic viability of Dutch dairy farms. Explorations of future scenarios, which include different drivers and impacts, are needed to perform ex-ante policy assessment. This study uses a bio-economic farm model to assess impacts

  3. Impacts of model initialization on an integrated surface water - groundwater model

    KAUST Repository

    Ajami, Hoori

    2015-04-01

    Integrated hydrologic models characterize catchment responses by coupling the subsurface flow with land surface processes. One of the major areas of uncertainty in such models is the specification of the initial condition and its influence on subsequent simulations. A key challenge in model initialization is that it requires spatially distributed information on model states, groundwater levels and soil moisture, even when such data are not routinely available. Here, the impact of uncertainty in initial condition was explored across a 208 km2 catchment in Denmark using the ParFlow.CLM model. The initialization impact was assessed under two meteorological conditions (wet vs dry) using five depth to water table and soil moisture distributions obtained from various equilibrium states (thermal, root zone, discharge, saturated and unsaturated zone equilibrium) during the model spin-up. Each of these equilibrium states correspond to varying computation times to achieve stability in a particular aspect of the system state. Results identified particular sensitivity in modelled recharge and stream flow to the different initializations, but reduced sensitivity in modelled energy fluxes. Analysis also suggests that to simulate a year that is wetter than the spin-up period, an initialization based on discharge equilibrium is adequate to capture the direction and magnitude of surface water–groundwater exchanges. For a drier or hydrologically similar year to the spin-up period, an initialization based on groundwater equilibrium is required. Variability of monthly subsurface storage changes and discharge bias at the scale of a hydrological event show that the initialization impacts do not diminish as the simulations progress, highlighting the importance of robust and accurate initialization in capturing surface water–groundwater dynamics.

  4. Using the Five Domains Model to Assess the Adverse Impacts of Husbandry, Veterinary, and Equitation Interventions on Horse Welfare.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGreevy, Paul; Berger, Jeannine; de Brauwere, Nic; Doherty, Orla; Harrison, Anna; Fiedler, Julie; Jones, Claudia; McDonnell, Sue; McLean, Andrew; Nakonechny, Lindsay; Nicol, Christine; Preshaw, Liane; Thomson, Peter; Tzioumis, Vicky; Webster, John; Wolfensohn, Sarah; Yeates, James; Jones, Bidda

    2018-03-18

    The aim of this study was to conduct a series of paper-based exercises in order to assess the negative (adverse) welfare impacts, if any, of common interventions on domestic horses across a broad range of different contexts of equine care and training. An international panel (with professional expertise in psychology, equitation science, veterinary science, education, welfare, equestrian coaching, advocacy, and community engagement; n = 16) met over a four-day period to define and assess these interventions, using an adaptation of the domain-based assessment model. The interventions were considered within 14 contexts: C1 Weaning; C2 Diet; C3 Housing; C4 Foundation training; C5 Ill-health and veterinary interventions (chiefly medical); C6 Ill-health and veterinary interventions (chiefly surgical); C7 Elective procedures; C8 Care procedures; C9 Restraint for management procedures; C10 Road transport; C11 Activity-competition; C12 Activity-work; C13 Activity-breeding females; and C14 Activity-breeding males. Scores on a 1-10 scale for Domain 5 (the mental domain) gathered during the workshop were compared with overall impact scores on a 1-10 scale assigned by the same panellists individually before the workshop. The most severe (median and interquartile range, IQR) impacts within each context were identified during the workshop as: C1 abrupt, individual weaning (10 IQR 1); C2 feeding 100% low-energy concentrate (8 IQR 2.5); C3 indoor tie stalls with no social contact (9 IQR 1.5); C4 both (i) dropping horse with ropes (9 IQR 0.5) and forced flexion (9 IQR 0.5); C5 long-term curative medical treatments (8 IQR 3); C6 major deep intracavity surgery (8.5 IQR 1); C7 castration without veterinary supervision (10 IQR 1); C8 both (i) tongue ties (8 IQR 2.5) and (ii) restrictive nosebands (8 IQR 2.5); C9 ear twitch (8 IQR 1); C10 both (i) individual transport (7.00 IQR 1.5) and group transport with unfamiliar companions (7 IQR 1.5); C11 both (i) jumps racing (8 IQR 2.5) and

  5. Using the Five Domains Model to Assess the Adverse Impacts of Husbandry, Veterinary, and Equitation Interventions on Horse Welfare

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul McGreevy

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to conduct a series of paper-based exercises in order to assess the negative (adverse welfare impacts, if any, of common interventions on domestic horses across a broad range of different contexts of equine care and training. An international panel (with professional expertise in psychology, equitation science, veterinary science, education, welfare, equestrian coaching, advocacy, and community engagement; n = 16 met over a four-day period to define and assess these interventions, using an adaptation of the domain-based assessment model. The interventions were considered within 14 contexts: C1 Weaning; C2 Diet; C3 Housing; C4 Foundation training; C5 Ill-health and veterinary interventions (chiefly medical; C6 Ill-health and veterinary interventions (chiefly surgical; C7 Elective procedures; C8 Care procedures; C9 Restraint for management procedures; C10 Road transport; C11 Activity—competition; C12 Activity—work; C13 Activity—breeding females; and C14 Activity—breeding males. Scores on a 1–10 scale for Domain 5 (the mental domain gathered during the workshop were compared with overall impact scores on a 1–10 scale assigned by the same panellists individually before the workshop. The most severe (median and interquartile range, IQR impacts within each context were identified during the workshop as: C1 abrupt, individual weaning (10 IQR 1; C2 feeding 100% low-energy concentrate (8 IQR 2.5; C3 indoor tie stalls with no social contact (9 IQR 1.5; C4 both (i dropping horse with ropes (9 IQR 0.5 and forced flexion (9 IQR 0.5; C5 long-term curative medical treatments (8 IQR 3; C6 major deep intracavity surgery (8.5 IQR 1; C7 castration without veterinary supervision (10 IQR 1; C8 both (i tongue ties (8 IQR 2.5 and (ii restrictive nosebands (8 IQR 2.5; C9 ear twitch (8 IQR 1; C10 both (i individual transport (7.00 IQR 1.5 and group transport with unfamiliar companions (7 IQR 1.5; C11 both (i jumps racing (8 IQR 2

  6. Integrated environmental assessment of future energy scenarios based on economic equilibrium models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Igos, E.; Rugani, B.; Rege, S.; Benetto, E.; Drouet, L.; Zachary, D.; Haas, T.

    2014-01-01

    The future evolution of energy supply technologies strongly depends on (and affects) the economic and environmental systems, due to the high dependency of this sector on the availability and cost of fossil fuels, especially on the small regional scale. This paper aims at presenting the modeling system and preliminary results of a research project conducted on the scale of Luxembourg to assess the environmental impact of future energy scenarios for the country, integrating outputs from partial and computable general equilibrium models within hybrid Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) frameworks. The general equilibrium model for Luxembourg, LUXGEM, is used to evaluate the economic impacts of policy decisions and other economic shocks over the time horizon 2006-2030. A techno-economic (partial equilibrium) model for Luxembourg, ETEM, is used instead to compute operation levels of various technologies to meet the demand for energy services at the least cost along the same timeline. The future energy demand and supply are made consistent by coupling ETEM with LUXGEM so as to have the same macro-economic variables and energy shares driving both models. The coupling results are then implemented within a set of Environmentally-Extended Input-Output (EE-IO) models in historical time series to test the feasibility of the integrated framework and then to assess the environmental impacts of the country. Accordingly, a dis-aggregated energy sector was built with the different ETEM technologies in the EE-IO to allow hybridization with Life Cycle Inventory (LCI) and enrich the process detail. The results show that the environmental impact slightly decreased overall from 2006 to 2009. Most of the impacts come from some imported commodities (natural gas, used to produce electricity, and metalliferous ores and metal scrap). The main energy production technology is the combined-cycle gas turbine plant 'Twinerg', representing almost 80% of the domestic electricity production in Luxembourg

  7. Discussion of some issues in assessing nuclear and radiation environmental impacts and in related assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pan Ziqiang

    1998-01-01

    The author discusses some noticeable issues in drafting assessment report of nuclear and radiation environmental impacts and relevant aspects needed to be considered from the point of view of comprehensive environmental assessment. The considerable issue are principles of radioactive waste management, optimization of radiation protection and collective dose, and uncertainty of the assessment. Implementing reporting system on assessment of nuclear and radiation environmental impacts would improve environmental protection for nuclear and radiation facilities. However, trade's, regional , country and global assessment of environmental impacts has to be enhanced. For this purpose, it is necessary to develop methodology of qualitative and quantitative comprehensive assessment

  8. The value of environmental impact assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sohocki, D.D.

    1996-01-01

    The environment and the economy are inextricably linked. Today the environmental, economic, and social associated with project and program decisions are at times of such a magnitude and duration that they exceed our ability to understand, let alone mitigate them. Energy production, distribution, pricing, policies, end uses, and externalities demonstrate the need for wise planning and informed decision making. International cooperation, based upon mutually shared respect, responsibility, and innovative solutions is an essential component of addressing contemporary issues, impacts, and opportunities. Both egypt and the united states have laws requiring environmental impact assessments. Just as egypt can learn from our successes and failures in the environmental impact assessment field over the past 36 years, the united states and other nations can learn as egypt develops and innovates its own approaches and solutions

  9. Integrating Plant Science and Crop Modeling: Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on Soybean and Maize Production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fodor, Nándor; Challinor, Andrew; Droutsas, Ioannis; Ramirez-Villegas, Julian; Zabel, Florian; Koehler, Ann-Kristin; Foyer, Christine H

    2017-11-01

    Increasing global CO2 emissions have profound consequences for plant biology, not least because of direct influences on carbon gain. However, much remains uncertain regarding how our major crops will respond to a future high CO2 world. Crop model inter-comparison studies have identified large uncertainties and biases associated with climate change. The need to quantify uncertainty has drawn the fields of plant molecular physiology, crop breeding and biology, and climate change modeling closer together. Comparing data from different models that have been used to assess the potential climate change impacts on soybean and maize production, future yield losses have been predicted for both major crops. When CO2 fertilization effects are taken into account significant yield gains are predicted for soybean, together with a shift in global production from the Southern to the Northern hemisphere. Maize production is also forecast to shift northwards. However, unless plant breeders are able to produce new hybrids with improved traits, the forecasted yield losses for maize will only be mitigated by agro-management adaptations. In addition, the increasing demands of a growing world population will require larger areas of marginal land to be used for maize and soybean production. We summarize the outputs of crop models, together with mitigation options for decreasing the negative impacts of climate on the global maize and soybean production, providing an overview of projected land-use change as a major determining factor for future global crop production. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Japanese Society of Plant Physiologists.

  10. Transboundary Environmental Impact Assessment : An Introduction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bastmeijer, C.J.; Koivurova, T.; Bastmeijer, K.; Koivurova, T.

    2008-01-01

    Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) is a well-established instrument of environmental law and policy that aims to ensure that potential adverse environmental effects of human activities are assessed before decisions on such activities are made. The instrument is increasingly being applied in

  11. Gross national happiness as a framework for health impact assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pennock, Michael; Ura, Karma

    2011-01-01

    The incorporation of population health concepts and health determinants into Health Impact Assessments has created a number of challenges. The need for intersectoral collaboration has increased; the meaning of 'health' has become less clear; and the distinctions between health impacts, environmental impacts, social impacts and economic impacts have become increasingly blurred. The Bhutanese concept of Gross National Happiness may address these issues by providing an over-arching evidence-based framework which incorporates health, social, environmental and economic contributors as well as a number of other key contributors to wellbeing such as culture and governance. It has the potential to foster intersectoral collaboration by incorporating a more limited definition of health which places the health sector as one of a number of contributors to wellbeing. It also allows for the examination of the opportunity costs of health investments on wellbeing, is consistent with whole-of-government approaches to public policy and emerging models of social progress.

  12. Impact assessment and coastal climate change adaptation in a local transdisciplinary perspective

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Carlo Sass; Broge, N. H.; Knudsen, Per

    , private and public institutions, and the local communities provides: understanding of the immediate and potential future challenges; appreciation of different stakeholder motives, business agendas, legislative constraints etc., and common focus on how to cost-efficiently adapt to and manage impacts......From an applied point of view, the authors present and discuss inter- and transdisciplinary approaches to assess and deal with natural coastal hazards and climate change impacts. The construction of a shared working platform for knowledge integration across levels of governance and between research...... of climate change. The platform is dynamically updated with additional data and knowledge, e.g. from climate change evidence, or, by provision of updated regional models of future sea level rise. In order to integrate natural hazards and impact development over time, models on hydrology, geology...

  13. A multi-model assessment of terrestrial biosphere model data needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gardella, A.; Cowdery, E.; De Kauwe, M. G.; Desai, A. R.; Duveneck, M.; Fer, I.; Fisher, R.; Knox, R. G.; Kooper, R.; LeBauer, D.; McCabe, T.; Minunno, F.; Raiho, A.; Serbin, S.; Shiklomanov, A. N.; Thomas, A.; Walker, A.; Dietze, M.

    2017-12-01

    Terrestrial biosphere models provide us with the means to simulate the impacts of climate change and their uncertainties. Going beyond direct observation and experimentation, models synthesize our current understanding of ecosystem processes and can give us insight on data needed to constrain model parameters. In previous work, we leveraged the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer (PEcAn) to assess the contribution of different parameters to the uncertainty of the Ecosystem Demography model v2 (ED) model outputs across various North American biomes (Dietze et al., JGR-G, 2014). While this analysis identified key research priorities, the extent to which these priorities were model- and/or biome-specific was unclear. Furthermore, because the analysis only studied one model, we were unable to comment on the effect of variability in model structure to overall predictive uncertainty. Here, we expand this analysis to all biomes globally and a wide sample of models that vary in complexity: BioCro, CABLE, CLM, DALEC, ED2, FATES, G'DAY, JULES, LANDIS, LINKAGES, LPJ-GUESS, MAESPA, PRELES, SDGVM, SIPNET, and TEM. Prior to performing uncertainty analyses, model parameter uncertainties were assessed by assimilating all available trait data from the combination of the BETYdb and TRY trait databases, using an updated multivariate version of PEcAn's Hierarchical Bayesian meta-analysis. Next, sensitivity analyses were performed for all models across a range of sites globally to assess sensitivities for a range of different outputs (GPP, ET, SH, Ra, NPP, Rh, NEE, LAI) at multiple time scales from the sub-annual to the decadal. Finally, parameter uncertainties and model sensitivities were combined to evaluate the fractional contribution of each parameter to the predictive uncertainty for a specific variable at a specific site and timescale. Facilitated by PEcAn's automated workflows, this analysis represents the broadest assessment of the sensitivities and uncertainties in terrestrial

  14. Introduction: The effectiveness of impact assessment instruments

    OpenAIRE

    Cashmore, M; Bond, A; Sadler, B

    2009-01-01

    The global application of impact assessment instruments to achieve a variety of policy integration goals (e.g. the mainstreaming of environmental, gender or economic efficiency concerns) continues to proliferate. These instruments represent important components of contemporary political governance and hence are an important locus for applied research. This special issue of Impact Assessment and Project Appraisal critically examines 'state-of-the-art' knowledge and understanding of the effecti...

  15. Development and Exemplification of a Model for Teacher Assessment in Primary Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies, D. J.; Earle, S.; McMahon, K.; Howe, A.; Collier, C.

    2017-01-01

    The Teacher Assessment in Primary Science project is funded by the Primary Science Teaching Trust and based at Bath Spa University. The study aims to develop a whole-school model of valid, reliable and manageable teacher assessment to inform practice and make a positive impact on primary-aged children's learning in science. The model is based on a…

  16. Biogeography of seabirds within a high-latitude ecosystem: Use of a data-assimilative ocean model to assess impacts of mesoscale oceanography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santora, Jarrod A.; Eisner, Lisa B.; Kuletz, Kathy J.; Ladd, Carol; Renner, Martin; Hunt, George L., Jr.

    2018-02-01

    We assessed the biogeography of seabirds within the Bering Sea Large Marine Ecosystem (LME), a highly productive and extensive continental shelf system that supports important fishing grounds. Our objective was to investigate how physical ocean conditions impact distribution of seabirds along latitudinal gradients. We tested the hypothesis that seabird biogeographic patterns reflect differences in ocean conditions relating to the boundary between northern and southern shelf ecosystems. We used a grid-based approach to develop spatial means (1975-2014) of summertime seabird species' abundance, species' richness, and a multivariate seabird assemblage index to examine species composition. Seabird indices were linked to ocean conditions derived from a data-assimilative oceanographic model to quantify relationships between physics (e.g., temperature, salinity, and current velocity), bathymetry and seabirds along latitudinal gradients. Species assemblages reflected two main sources of variation, a mode for elevated richness and abundance, and a mode related to partitioning of inner/middle shelf species from outer shelf-slope species. Overall, species richness and abundance increased markedly at higher latitudes. We found that latitudinal changes in species assemblages, richness and abundance indicates a major shift around 59-60°N within inner and middle shelf regions, but not in the outer shelf. Within the middle shelf, latitudinal shifts in seabird assemblages strongly related to hydrographic structure, as opposed to the inner and outer shelf waters. As expected, elevated species richness and abundance was associated with major breeding colonies and within important coastal foraging areas. Our study also indicates that seabird observations supported the conclusion that the oceanographic model captured mesoscale variability of ocean conditions important for understanding seabird distributions and represents an important step for evaluating modeling and empirical studies

  17. Emergency management at the boundary between expertise and decision: which role for CBRN-E atmospheric dispersion and impact assessment modeling?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benamrane, Yasmine

    2015-01-01

    Environmental and health impact assessment of accidental or intentional releases of potentially hazardous materials in the atmosphere is increasingly supported by the development of modeling tools. Their potential to assess the spatial and temporal extent and severity of toxic plumes contributes to their growing development as CBRN-E emergency support tools. However, the Fukushima nuclear accident underlined that their support is not yet optimal regarding civil security organizations in charge of population protection. This research therefore tends to clarify the role of these modelling tools in emergency management. For this purpose, interviews and observations of crisis exercises have been conducted. This study suggests that nowadays, CBRN-E emergency management takes place in a sense making co-constructing process between CBRN-E experts and emergency managers contributing to the achievement of consensus in the decision making process. This study also highlights the key role played by the crisis center, regarding its proper organizational structure as a sharing place between actors with complementary expertise and experience, in the perception and response to changing circumstances. Thus, this study suggests that by providing situation assessment results, modeling tools meet the current practices both in terms of emergency support tools used for civilian protection organization and in respect of each actors' contributions. In this perspective, these modelling tools are likely to end up being part of the development of crisis management support tools for building a collective representation of the CBRN-E situation between expertise and decision. (author) [fr

  18. Model for impact assessment in human factors engineering project of PWR plants with digital control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roedel, Frederico G.; Schirru, Roberto

    2017-01-01

    New nuclear power plants are being designed with the digital Instrumentation and Control (I and C) as the backbone for the functions of protection, control, monitoring and display and with digital Human-System Interface (HSI). In this new environment, rather than play physical control actions, the operators begin to act as decision makers and, within this context, the Human Factors Engineering (HFE) has become an integral part of the projects. As the operational experience with the use of digital I and C systems and HSI is limited since, besides the small number of applications, it is proprietary, the objective of this work is to carry out an assessment in order to identify the most relevant aspects of a digital HSI project. The proposed model is based on concepts of fuzzy logic, uses MATLAB for data processing, defines criteria for evaluation and quantification of impacts in the project and has been applied to the General Principles and the Guidelines presented in the NUREG-0700. The assessment indicated that the Guidelines for User-Interface Interaction and Management, for Information Display and for Computer-Based Procedures System should be carefully evaluated in the design of a digital HSI considering the new Users Tasks Demand, the Organization of HSI Elements and the Work Environment. (author)

  19. Model for impact assessment in human factors engineering project of PWR plants with digital control

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roedel, Frederico G.; Schirru, Roberto, E-mail: froedel@nuclear.ufrj.br, E-mail: schirru@lmp.ufrj.br [Coordenacao de Pos-Graduacao e Pesquisa de Engenharia (COPPE/UFRJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Departamento de Engenharia Nuclear

    2017-07-01

    New nuclear power plants are being designed with the digital Instrumentation and Control (I and C) as the backbone for the functions of protection, control, monitoring and display and with digital Human-System Interface (HSI). In this new environment, rather than play physical control actions, the operators begin to act as decision makers and, within this context, the Human Factors Engineering (HFE) has become an integral part of the projects. As the operational experience with the use of digital I and C systems and HSI is limited since, besides the small number of applications, it is proprietary, the objective of this work is to carry out an assessment in order to identify the most relevant aspects of a digital HSI project. The proposed model is based on concepts of fuzzy logic, uses MATLAB for data processing, defines criteria for evaluation and quantification of impacts in the project and has been applied to the General Principles and the Guidelines presented in the NUREG-0700. The assessment indicated that the Guidelines for User-Interface Interaction and Management, for Information Display and for Computer-Based Procedures System should be carefully evaluated in the design of a digital HSI considering the new Users Tasks Demand, the Organization of HSI Elements and the Work Environment. (author)

  20. Assessment of psychosocial impact of dental aesthetics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Munizeh; Fida, Mubassar

    2008-09-01

    To assess the psychosocial impact of dental aesthetics using the 'Psychosocial Impact of Dental Aesthetics Questionnaire' (PIDAQ) and self-rated Aesthetic Component (AC) of the Index of Orthodontic Treatment Need (IOTN). Cross-sectional study. Dental Section, the Aga Khan University Hospital, Karachi, from August to September 2006. Adults with no prior orthodontic treatment were asked to complete a modified version of the 'Psychosocial Impact of Dental Aesthetics Questionnaire' (PIDAQ). A total of four variables including 'Dental Self-confidence', 'Social impact', 'Psychological impact' and 'Perceived orthodontic treatment need' were assessed by a series of statements, whereas dental aesthetics were assessed by the respondents using the IOTN Aesthetic Component (self-rated IOTN-AC). Kruskal-Walli's test was applied to determine significance. The respondents were 120 adults (70 females and 50 males; mean age 25.8 years), all four of the above-mentioned variables measuring psychosocial impact showed positive and significant correlations with the perceived severity of malocclusion as depicted by the Aesthetic Component (AC) of Index of Orthodontic Treatment Need (IOTN), with p-value of less than 0.01 for all variables. The results indicate the strong psychosocial impact of altered dental aesthetics on the emotional state of an individual. The association between self-rated IOTN-AC grading with psychosocial well-being stands established, indicating that the perceived aesthetics of malocclusion may be as significant a factor in determining treatment need as the degree of malocclusion.

  1. Assessing Ecosystem Model Performance in Semiarid Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, A.; Dietze, M.; Scott, R. L.; Biederman, J. A.

    2017-12-01

    In ecosystem process modelling, comparing outputs to benchmark datasets observed in the field is an important way to validate models, allowing the modelling community to track model performance over time and compare models at specific sites. Multi-model comparison projects as well as models themselves have largely been focused on temperate forests and similar biomes. Semiarid regions, on the other hand, are underrepresented in land surface and ecosystem modelling efforts, and yet will be disproportionately impacted by disturbances such as climate change due to their sensitivity to changes in the water balance. Benchmarking models at semiarid sites is an important step in assessing and improving models' suitability for predicting the impact of disturbance on semiarid ecosystems. In this study, several ecosystem models were compared at a semiarid grassland in southwestern Arizona using PEcAn, or the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer, an open-source eco-informatics toolbox ideal for creating the repeatable model workflows necessary for benchmarking. Models included SIPNET, DALEC, JULES, ED2, GDAY, LPJ-GUESS, MAESPA, CLM, CABLE, and FATES. Comparison between model output and benchmarks such as net ecosystem exchange (NEE) tended to produce high root mean square error and low correlation coefficients, reflecting poor simulation of seasonality and the tendency for models to create much higher carbon sources than observed. These results indicate that ecosystem models do not currently adequately represent semiarid ecosystem processes.

  2. Modeling Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Streamflow Using Projections of the 5th Assessment Report for the Bernam River Basin, Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nkululeko Simeon Dlamini

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Potential impacts of climate change on the streamflow of the Bernam River Basin in Malaysia are assessed using ten Global Climate Models (GCMs under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5. A graphical user interface was developed that integrates all of the common procedures of assessing climate change impacts, to generate high resolution climate variables (e.g., rainfall, temperature, etc. at the local scale from large-scale climate models. These are linked in one executable module to generate future climate sequences that can be used as inputs to various models, including hydrological and crop models. The generated outputs were used as inputs to the SWAT hydrological model to simulate the hydrological processes. The evaluation results indicated that the model performed well for the watershed with a monthly R2, Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE and Percent Bias (PBIAS values of 0.67, 0.62 and −9.4 and 0.62, 0.61 and −4.2 for the calibration and validation periods, respectively. The multi-model projections show an increase in future temperature (tmax and tmin in all respective scenarios, up to an average of 2.5 °C for under the worst-case scenario (RC8.5. Rainfall is also predicted to change with clear variations between the dry and wet season. Streamflow projections also followed rainfall pattern to a great extent with a distinct change between the dry and wet season possibly due to the increase in evapotranspiration in the watershed. In principle, the interface can be customized for the application to other watersheds by incorporating GCMs’ baseline data and their corresponding future data for those particular stations in the new watershed. Methodological limitations of the study are also discussed.

  3. [Health impact assessment of "white-collar exemption" in Japan].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujino, Yoshihisa; Matsuda, Shinya

    2007-03-01

    This work conducted a health impact assessment (HIA) of the Japanese Government's proposal concerning the introduction of so called "white-collar exemption" into the Japanese labor market. We adopted the Merseyside model and performed a rapid health impact assessment to assess the potential health effects of white-collar exemption. In this HIA, several health determinants which may possibly be affected, both positively and negatively, were identified based on experts' judgments. Literature evidence was assessed using PubMed and other databases. In addition, we searched for the opinions of those affected by white-collar exemption from internet web sites, and six concerns were identified. Long working hours were identified as the most serious concern by both experts and those affected. White-collar exemption may increase irregular working patterns which may be related to sleep disorder, stress, and cardiovascular disease. Family function and social participation will also be affected by irregular working patterns. On the other hand, in terms of stress, white-collar exemption may benefit from a higher degree of job control. There are possibilities that white-collar exemption may enable an improved work-life balance and enable access of some groups of the population, such as people with disabilities or parents looking after children, greater access to the labour market. However, it is uncertain whether the benefits of white-collar exemption would overcome those of the current free-time or flex-time systems. The present work provides a wide range of health impacts of white-collar exemption, and will hopefully attract the attentions of decision-makers and those likely to be affected in order to contribute to policy-making.

  4. Modelling Impacts of Climate Change: Case Studies using the New Generation of Erosion Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change is expected to impact upon a number of soil erosion drivers and processes, which should be taken into account when designing a modelling strategy. The fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) (Parry et al., 2007; Solomon et al., 2007) reviews a...

  5. Climate Change Impact Assessment of Hydro-Climate in Southern Peninsular Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ercan, A.; Ishida, K.; Kavvas, M. L.; Chen, Z. R.; Jang, S.; Amin, M. Z. M.; Shaaban, A. J.

    2017-12-01

    Impacts of climate change on the hydroclimate of the coastal region in the south of Peninsular Malaysia in the 21st century was assessed by means of a regional climate model utilizing an ensemble of 15 different future climate realizations. Coarse resolution Global Climate Models' future projections covering four emission scenarios based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) datasets were dynamically downscaled to 6 km resolution over the study area. The analyses were made in terms of rainfall, air temperature, evapotranporation, and soil water storage.

  6. Thermal impact assessment of multi power plant operations on estuaries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eraslan, A.H.; Kim, K.H.; Harris, J.L.

    1977-01-01

    The assessment of the thermal impact of multi power plant operations on large estuaries requires careful consideration of the problems associated with: re-entrainment, re-circulation, thermal interaction, delay in the attainment of thermal equilibrium state, and uncertainty in specifying open boundaries and open boundary conditions of the regions, which are critically important in the analysis of the thermal conditions in receiving water bodies with tidal dominated, periodically reversing flow conditions. The results of an extensive study in the Hudson River at Indian Point, 42 miles upstream of the ocean end at the Battery, concluded that the tidal-transient, multi-dimensional discrete-element (UTA) thermal transport models (ESTONE, FLOTWO, TMPTWO computer codes) and the near-field far-field zone-matching methodology can be employed with a high degree of reliability in the assessment of the thermal impact of multi power plant operations on tidal dominated estuaries

  7. IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF STRUCTURAL FLOOD MITIGATION MEASURES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ZVIJAKOVA LENKA

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The objective of the paper is to propose a methodology for assessing water constructions, which will allow impact assessment of water constructions on the environment and hence select the best option for the permission process. The result is “Guideline for environmental impact assessment of flood protection object”, which uses the method of UMRA (universal matrix of risk analysis, which is one of the methods of risk analysis proposed not only to enhance the transparency and sensitivity of the evaluation process, but also to cope with the requirements of the EIA system in the Slovakia and Europe Union.

  8. Rapid Assessment of Anthropogenic Impacts of Exposed Sandy ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    We applied a rapid assessment methodology to estimate the degree of human impact of exposed sandy beaches in Ghana using ghost crabs as ecological indicators. The use of size ranges of ghost crab burrows and their population density as ecological indicators to assess extent of anthropogenic impacts on beaches ...

  9. Assessing the observed impact of anthropogenic climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Hansen, G; Stone, D

    2016-01-01

    © 2016 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved. Impacts of recent regional changes in climate on natural and human systems are documented across the globe, yet studies explicitly linking these observations to anthropogenic forcing of the climate are scarce. Here we provide a systematic assessment of the role of anthropogenic climate change for the range of impacts of regional climate trends reported in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report. We find that almost two-thirds of the impacts...

  10. Assessment of Containment Structures Against Missile Impact Threats

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Q M

    2006-01-01

    In order to ensure the highest safety requirements,nuclear power plant structures (the containment structures,the fuel storages and transportation systems) should be assessed against all possible internal and external impact threats.The internal impact threats include kinetic missiles generated by the failure of high pressure vessels and pipes,the failure of high speed rotating machineries and accidental drops.The external impact threats may come from airborne missiles,aircraft impact,explosion blast and fragments.The impact effects of these threats on concrete and steel structures in a nuclear power plant are discussed.Methods and procedures for the impact assessment of nuclear power plants are introduced.Recent studies on penetration and perforation mechanics as well as progresses on dynamic properties of concrete-like materials are presented to increase the understanding of the impact effects on concrete containment structures.

  11. Impact assessment at a hypothetical submergence of a transport package of radioactive materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsumune, Daisuke; Saegusa, Toshiari; Ito, Chihiro

    2007-01-01

    Under INF code and IAEA standard, radioactive materials are transported safety on the sea. To gain the public acceptance for these transports additionally, impact assessments have been made by assuming that a radioactive material package might be sunk into the sea. A method of the impact assessment consists of the calculation of release rate of radionuclide from a package, calculation of radionuclide concentration in the ocean, and estimation of dose assessment for the public. An ocean general circulation model was used to calculate the radionuclide concentration in the ocean. Background radionuclide concentration by fallout was simulated by the ocean general circulation model in this method for the verification. Agreement between calculation and observation suggests that this method is appropriate for the assessment. In the both cases for a package sunk at the coastal region at the depth of two hundreds meters and for that sunk at the ocean at the depth of several thousands meters, the evaluated result of the dose equivalent by radiation exposure to the public are far below the dose equivalent limit of the ICRP recommendation (1 mSv/year). (author)

  12. Delineating the Impact of Weightlessness on Human Physiology Using Computational Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kassemi, Mohammad

    2015-01-01

    Microgravity environment has profound effects on several important human physiological systems. The impact of weightlessness is usually indirect as mediated by changes in the biological fluid flow and transport and alterations in the deformation and stress fields of the compliant tissues. In this context, Fluid-Structural and Fluid-Solid Interaction models provide a valuable tool in delineating the physical origins of the physiological changes so that systematic countermeasures can be devised to reduce their adverse effects. In this presentation, impact of gravity on three human physiological systems will be considered. The first case involves prediction of cardiac shape change and altered stress distributions in weightlessness. The second, presents a fluid-structural-interaction (FSI) analysis and assessment of the vestibular system and explores the reasons behind the unexpected microgravity caloric stimulation test results performed aboard the Skylab. The last case investigates renal stone development in microgravity and the possible impact of re-entry into partial gravity on the development and transport of nucleating, growing, and agglomerating renal calculi in the nephron. Finally, the need for model validation and verification and application of the FSI models to assess the effects of Artificial Gravity (AG) are also briefly discussed.

  13. Different levels of stakeholder participation for sustainability Impact Assessment Tools - A comparative requirement analysis of four research approaches

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sieber, S.; Konig, H.; Bezlepkina, I.; Reidsma, P.

    2012-01-01

    In the last decade, a wide range of new modeling approaches has been developed for sustainability impact assessment. They are often based on theoretical concepts on how to cope, process and apply pre-assessments on policy and project instrument-implementation. Experiences show that few models

  14. Environmental impacts of organic and conventional agricultural products--are the differences captured by life cycle assessment?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meier, Matthias S; Stoessel, Franziska; Jungbluth, Niels; Juraske, Ronnie; Schader, Christian; Stolze, Matthias

    2015-02-01

    Comprehensive assessment tools are needed that reliably describe environmental impacts of different agricultural systems in order to develop sustainable high yielding agricultural production systems with minimal impacts on the environment. Today, Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is increasingly used to assess and compare the environmental sustainability of agricultural products from conventional and organic agriculture. However, LCA studies comparing agricultural products from conventional and organic farming systems report a wide variation in the resource efficiency of products from these systems. The studies show that impacts per area farmed land are usually less in organic systems, but related to the quantity produced impacts are often higher. We reviewed 34 comparative LCA studies of organic and conventional agricultural products to analyze whether this result is solely due to the usually lower yields in organic systems or also due to inaccurate modeling within LCA. Comparative LCAs on agricultural products from organic and conventional farming systems often do not adequately differentiate the specific characteristics of the respective farming system in the goal and scope definition and in the inventory analysis. Further, often only a limited number of impact categories are assessed within the impact assessment not allowing for a comprehensive environmental assessment. The most critical points we identified relate to the nitrogen (N) fluxes influencing acidification, eutrophication, and global warming potential, and biodiversity. Usually, N-emissions in LCA inventories of agricultural products are based on model calculations. Modeled N-emissions often do not correspond with the actual amount of N left in the system that may result in potential emissions. Reasons for this may be that N-models are not well adapted to the mode of action of organic fertilizers and that N-emission models often are built on assumptions from conventional agriculture leading to even greater

  15. Study on the impact assessment for the life cycle assessment (LCA); Kankyo fuka bunseki ni okeru impact assessment ni kansuru chosa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-03-01

    This report describes the impact assessment which is an important step for LCA. For classification of the impact assessment, the existing literature was reviewed and a skeleton for the classification was proposed. The weighting factors for nine selected impact categories, which were used to calculate environmental load point (ELP) for the valuation, were obtained for two overseas groups, i.e., students of Amsterdam University and SETAC Europe members. It was found that the former provided the similar trends to general Japanese, however that the latter gave high weighting in the global warming and depletion of ozone layer. The ELP was proposed and applied to automatic washing machine, coffee maker, waste incineration power generation system, and co-generation system. As a result, its effectiveness was demonstrated. This report also describes problems for the LCA of thermal and material recycling of PS trays. 99 refs., 96 figs., 73 tabs.

  16. Modeling and Analysis on Radiological Safety Assessment of Low- and Intermediate Level Radioactive Waste Repository

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Youn Myoung; Jung, Jong Tae; Kang, Chul Hyung (and others)

    2008-04-15

    Modeling study and analysis for technical support for the safety and performance assessment of the low- and intermediate level (LILW) repository partially needed for radiological environmental impact reporting which is essential for the licenses for construction and operation of LILW has been fulfilled. Throughout this study such essential area for technical support for safety and performance assessment of the LILW repository and its licensing as gas generation and migration in and around the repository, risk analysis and environmental impact during transportation of LILW, biosphere modeling and assessment for the flux-to-dose conversion factors for human exposure as well as regional and global groundwater modeling and analysis has been carried out.

  17. Modeling and Analysis on Radiological Safety Assessment of Low- and Intermediate Level Radioactive Waste Repository

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Youn Myoung; Jung, Jong Tae; Kang, Chul Hyung

    2008-04-01

    Modeling study and analysis for technical support for the safety and performance assessment of the low- and intermediate level (LILW) repository partially needed for radiological environmental impact reporting which is essential for the licenses for construction and operation of LILW has been fulfilled. Throughout this study such essential area for technical support for safety and performance assessment of the LILW repository and its licensing as gas generation and migration in and around the repository, risk analysis and environmental impact during transportation of LILW, biosphere modeling and assessment for the flux-to-dose conversion factors for human exposure as well as regional and global groundwater modeling and analysis has been carried out

  18. Risk analysis within environmental impact assessment of proposed construction activity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zeleňáková, Martina; Zvijáková, Lenka

    2017-01-15

    Environmental impact assessment is an important process, prior to approval of the investment plan, providing a detailed examination of the likely and foreseeable impacts of proposed construction activity on the environment. The objective of this paper is to develop a specific methodology for the analysis and evaluation of environmental impacts of selected constructions – flood protection structures using risk analysis methods. The application of methodology designed for the process of environmental impact assessment will develop assumptions for further improvements or more effective implementation and performance of this process. The main objective of the paper is to improve the implementation of the environmental impact assessment process. Through the use of risk analysis methods in environmental impact assessment process, the set objective has been achieved. - Highlights: This paper is informed by an effort to develop research with the aim of: • Improving existing qualitative and quantitative methods for assessing the impacts • A better understanding of relations between probabilities and consequences • Methodology for the EIA of flood protection constructions based on risk analysis • Creative approaches in the search for environmentally friendly proposed activities.

  19. Risk analysis within environmental impact assessment of proposed construction activity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zeleňáková, Martina; Zvijáková, Lenka

    2017-01-01

    Environmental impact assessment is an important process, prior to approval of the investment plan, providing a detailed examination of the likely and foreseeable impacts of proposed construction activity on the environment. The objective of this paper is to develop a specific methodology for the analysis and evaluation of environmental impacts of selected constructions – flood protection structures using risk analysis methods. The application of methodology designed for the process of environmental impact assessment will develop assumptions for further improvements or more effective implementation and performance of this process. The main objective of the paper is to improve the implementation of the environmental impact assessment process. Through the use of risk analysis methods in environmental impact assessment process, the set objective has been achieved. - Highlights: This paper is informed by an effort to develop research with the aim of: • Improving existing qualitative and quantitative methods for assessing the impacts • A better understanding of relations between probabilities and consequences • Methodology for the EIA of flood protection constructions based on risk analysis • Creative approaches in the search for environmentally friendly proposed activities.

  20. The relation of risk assessment and health impact assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ádám, Balázs; Gulis, Gabriel

    2013-01-01

    than assessing a present situation. As part of this process, however, methods applied in risk assessment are used. Risk assessment typically characterises relation of a well-defined risk factor to a well-defined health outcome. Within HIA usually several individual risk assessments are needed...... of the causal chain from the proposal through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The stepwise analysis, systematic prioritization and consideration of horizontal interactions between the causal pathways make it feasible to use widely recognized risk assessment methods in the HIA......The level and distribution of health risks in a society is substantially influenced by measures of various policies, programmes or projects. Risk assessment can evaluate the nature, likelihood and severity of an adverse effect. Health impact assessment (HIA) provides similar function when used...

  1. Integrating subsistence practice and species distribution modeling: assessing invasive elodea's potential impact on Native Alaskan subsistence of Chinook salmon and whitefish

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luizza, Matthew W.; Evangelista, Paul H.; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; West, Amanda; Stewart, Heather

    2016-07-01

    Alaska has one of the most rapidly changing climates on earth and is experiencing an accelerated rate of human disturbance, including resource extraction and transportation infrastructure development. Combined, these factors increase the state's vulnerability to biological invasion, which can have acute negative impacts on ecological integrity and subsistence practices. Of growing concern is the spread of Alaska's first documented freshwater aquatic invasive plant Elodea spp. (elodea). In this study, we modeled the suitable habitat of elodea using global and state-specific species occurrence records and environmental variables, in concert with an ensemble of model algorithms. Furthermore, we sought to incorporate local subsistence concerns by using Native Alaskan knowledge and available statewide subsistence harvest data to assess the potential threat posed by elodea to Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and whitefish ( Coregonus nelsonii) subsistence. State models were applied to future climate (2040-2059) using five general circulation models best suited for Alaska. Model evaluations indicated that our results had moderate to strong predictability, with area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve values above 0.80 and classification accuracies ranging from 66 to 89 %. State models provided a more robust assessment of elodea habitat suitability. These ensembles revealed different levels of management concern statewide, based on the interaction of fish subsistence patterns, known spawning and rearing sites, and elodea habitat suitability, thus highlighting regions with additional need for targeted monitoring. Our results suggest that this approach can hold great utility for invasion risk assessments and better facilitate the inclusion of local stakeholder concerns in conservation planning and management.

  2. Assessing the likely impacts of climate change on infrastructure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holper, Paul; Nolan, Michael

    2007-01-01

    Full text: In 2005, the Victorian Government contracted CSIRO, Maunsell Australia and Phillips Fox to undertake an overview assessment of the likely impacts of climate change on the State's infrastructure, establish the categories of infrastructure most at risk and outline opportunities for adaptation responses. The Government released the assessment in May 2007. Climate change poses a significant risk to infrastructure and its owners, managers and long-term operators. The work was undertaken on the basis that it should not be assumed that future climate and its impacts will simply be an extension of what has been experienced in the past. Major infrastructure items have long useful life spans (20-100 years). A bridge built today is expected to still be in use in tens, if not hundreds, of years. This means that recognition of likely climate change impacts and appropriate adaptation measures should occur now. Recognition of the risks associated with climate change is a valuable first step towards better planning of new infrastructure investments and reducing potential damage to existing infrastructure.lnfrastructure types examined were water, power, telecommunications, transport and buildings. The climate change projections used in this report are based on CSIRO climate modelling, supported by findings from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climatic and other variables considered were temperature, rainfall, available moisture, humidity, winds, fire-weather frequency and intensity, solar radiation levels and sea-level rise. For each climate change variable identified, we described a worst-case impact for low and high climate change projections for the years 2030 and 2070. The assessment was made on the basis of 'business as usual' with no adaptation responses to climate change. The report also details the current governance structures associated with each infrastructure type. Overall, the report assessed the likely impact of climate change on

  3. Discussion on the post-project assessment of environmental impact for nuclear facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shang Zhaorong

    2013-01-01

    The paper introduces the background of post-project assessment of environmental impact in the world and focuses on the characteristic of environmental impact assessment for Chinese nuclear facilities construction projects, analyzes the necessity, principle and contents of post-project assessment of environmental impact on current Chinese nuclear facilities operation. It is considered that to start the post-project assessment of environmental impact, perfect the post-project assessment mechanism, introduce the post-project assessment into environmental impact assessment system are just at the night time. (author)

  4. Assessing corporate project impacts in changeable contexts: A human rights perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Salcito, Kendyl, E-mail: kendyl.salcito@unibas.ch [Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, P.O. Box, CH-4002 Basel (Switzerland); University of Basel, P.O. Box, CH-4003 Basel (Switzerland); NomoGaia, 1900 Wazee Street, Suite 303, Denver, CO 80202 (United States); NewFields, LLC, Denver, CO 80202 (United States); Singer, Burton H., E-mail: bhsinger@epi.ufl.edu [Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32610 (United States); Krieger, Gary R., E-mail: gkrieger@newfields.com [NewFields, LLC, Denver, CO 80202 (United States); Weiss, Mitchell G., E-mail: mitchell-g.weiss@unibas.ch [Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, P.O. Box, CH-4002 Basel (Switzerland); University of Basel, P.O. Box, CH-4003 Basel (Switzerland); Wielga, Mark, E-mail: wielga@nomogaia.org [NomoGaia, 1900 Wazee Street, Suite 303, Denver, CO 80202 (United States); NewFields, LLC, Denver, CO 80202 (United States); Utzinger, Jürg, E-mail: juerg.utzinger@unibas.ch [Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, P.O. Box, CH-4002 Basel (Switzerland); University of Basel, P.O. Box, CH-4003 Basel (Switzerland)

    2014-07-01

    Project-level impact assessment was originally conceived as a snapshot taken in advance of project implementation, contrasting current conditions with a likely future scenario involving a variety of predicted impacts. Current best practice guidance has encouraged a shift towards longitudinal assessments from the pre-project stage through the implementation and operating phases. Experience and study show, however, that assessment of infrastructure-intensive projects rarely endures past the project's construction phase. Negative consequences for environmental, social and health outcomes have been documented. Such consequences clarify the pressing need for longitudinal assessment in each of these domains, with human rights impact assessment (HRIA) as an umbrella over, and critical augmentation of, environmental, social and health assessments. Project impacts on human rights are more closely linked to political, economic and other factors beyond immediate effects of a company's policy and action throughout the project lifecycle. Delineating these processes requires an adequate framework, with strategies for collecting longitudinal data, protocols that provide core information for impact assessment and guidance for adaptive mitigation strategies as project-related effects change over time. This article presents general principles for the design and implementation of sustained, longitudinal HRIA, based on experience assessing and responding to human rights impact in a uranium mining project in Malawi. The case study demonstrates the value of longitudinal assessment both for limiting corporate risk and improving human welfare. - Graphical abstract: Assessing changes in human rights condition as affected by both project and context, over time. - Highlights: • Corporate capital projects affect human rights in myriad ways. • Ongoing, longitudinal impact assessment techniques are needed. • We present an approach for conducting longitudinal human rights impact

  5. Assessing corporate project impacts in changeable contexts: A human rights perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salcito, Kendyl; Singer, Burton H.; Krieger, Gary R.; Weiss, Mitchell G.; Wielga, Mark; Utzinger, Jürg

    2014-01-01

    Project-level impact assessment was originally conceived as a snapshot taken in advance of project implementation, contrasting current conditions with a likely future scenario involving a variety of predicted impacts. Current best practice guidance has encouraged a shift towards longitudinal assessments from the pre-project stage through the implementation and operating phases. Experience and study show, however, that assessment of infrastructure-intensive projects rarely endures past the project's construction phase. Negative consequences for environmental, social and health outcomes have been documented. Such consequences clarify the pressing need for longitudinal assessment in each of these domains, with human rights impact assessment (HRIA) as an umbrella over, and critical augmentation of, environmental, social and health assessments. Project impacts on human rights are more closely linked to political, economic and other factors beyond immediate effects of a company's policy and action throughout the project lifecycle. Delineating these processes requires an adequate framework, with strategies for collecting longitudinal data, protocols that provide core information for impact assessment and guidance for adaptive mitigation strategies as project-related effects change over time. This article presents general principles for the design and implementation of sustained, longitudinal HRIA, based on experience assessing and responding to human rights impact in a uranium mining project in Malawi. The case study demonstrates the value of longitudinal assessment both for limiting corporate risk and improving human welfare. - Graphical abstract: Assessing changes in human rights condition as affected by both project and context, over time. - Highlights: • Corporate capital projects affect human rights in myriad ways. • Ongoing, longitudinal impact assessment techniques are needed. • We present an approach for conducting longitudinal human rights impact assessment

  6. Assessing uncertainty in SRTM elevations for global flood modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawker, L. P.; Rougier, J.; Neal, J. C.; Bates, P. D.

    2017-12-01

    The SRTM DEM is widely used as the topography input to flood models in data-sparse locations. Understanding spatial error in the SRTM product is crucial in constraining uncertainty about elevations and assessing the impact of these upon flood prediction. Assessment of SRTM error was carried out by Rodriguez et al (2006), but this did not explicitly quantify the spatial structure of vertical errors in the DEM, and nor did it distinguish between errors over different types of landscape. As a result, there is a lack of information about spatial structure of vertical errors of the SRTM in the landscape that matters most to flood models - the floodplain. Therefore, this study attempts this task by comparing SRTM, an error corrected SRTM product (The MERIT DEM of Yamazaki et al., 2017) and near truth LIDAR elevations for 3 deltaic floodplains (Mississippi, Po, Wax Lake) and a large lowland region (the Fens, UK). Using the error covariance function, calculated by comparing SRTM elevations to the near truth LIDAR, perturbations of the 90m SRTM DEM were generated, producing a catalogue of plausible DEMs. This allows modellers to simulate a suite of plausible DEMs at any aggregated block size above native SRTM resolution. Finally, the generated DEM's were input into a hydrodynamic model of the Mekong Delta, built using the LISFLOOD-FP hydrodynamic model, to assess how DEM error affects the hydrodynamics and inundation extent across the domain. The end product of this is an inundation map with the probability of each pixel being flooded based on the catalogue of DEMs. In a world of increasing computer power, but a lack of detailed datasets, this powerful approach can be used throughout natural hazard modelling to understand how errors in the SRTM DEM can impact the hazard assessment.

  7. High-Resolution Modelling of Health Impacts from Air Pollution for Denmark using the Integrated Model System EVA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brandt, Jørgen; Andersen, Mikael S.; Bønløkke, Jakob; Christensen, Jesper H.; Hansen, Kaj M.; Hertel, Ole; Im, Ulas; Jensen, Steen S.; Ketzel, Matthias; Nielsen, Ole-Kenneth; Plejdrup, Marlene S.; Sigsgaard, Torben; Geels, Camilla

    2015-04-01

    We have developed an integrated health impact assessment system EVA (Economic Valuation of Air pollution; Brandt et al., 2013a; 2013b), based on the impact-pathway chain, to assess the health impacts and health-related economic externalities of air pollution resulting from specific emission sources or sectors. The system is used to support policymaking with respect to emission control. The EVA system has previously been used to assess the health impacts based on results from a regional model DEHM (the Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model; Brandt et al., 2012). In this study we have used a coupling of two chemistry transport models to calculate the air pollution concentration at different scales; the DEHM model to calculate the air pollution levels with a resolution down to 5.6 km x 5.6 km and the UBM model (Urban Background Model ; Berkowicz, 2000; Brandt et al., 2001) to further calculate the air pollution at 1 km x 1 km resolution for Denmark using results from DEHM as boundary conditions. Both the emission data based on the SPREAD model (Plejdrup and Gyldenkærne, 2011) as well as the population density has been represented in the model system with the same high resolution. The new developments of the integrated model system will be presented as well as results for health impacts and related external costs over the years 2006-2014 for Denmark. Furthermore, a sensitivity study of the health impact using coarse and fine resolutions in the model system has been carried out to evaluate the effect of improved description of the geographical population distribution with respect to location of local emissions. References Berkowicz, R., 2000. A Simple Model for Urban Background Pollution. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 65, 1/2, 259-267. Brandt, J., J. H. Christensen, L. M. Frohn, F. Palmgren, R. Berkowicz and Z. Zlatev, 2001: "Operational air pollution forecasts from European to local scale". Atmospheric Environment, Vol. 35, Sup. No. 1, pp. S91-S98, 2001 Brandt

  8. Application of the Aquifer Impact Model to support decisions at a CO 2 sequestration site: Modeling and Analysis: Application of the Aquifer Impact Model to support decisions at a CO 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bacon, Diana Holford [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Locke II, Randall A. [University of Illinois, Illinois State Geological Survey Champaign IL USA; Keating, Elizabeth [Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos NM USA; Carroll, Susan [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore CA USA; Iranmanesh, Abbas [University of Illinois, Illinois State Geological Survey Champaign IL USA; Mansoor, Kayyum [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore CA USA; Wimmer, Bracken [University of Illinois, Illinois State Geological Survey Champaign IL USA; Zheng, Liange [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley CA USA; Shao, Hongbo [University of Illinois, Illinois State Geological Survey Champaign IL USA; Greenberg, Sallie E. [University of Illinois, Illinois State Geological Survey Champaign IL USA

    2017-10-04

    The National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) has developed a suite of tools to assess and manage risk at CO2 sequestration sites (1). The NRAP tool suite includes the Aquifer Impact Model (AIM), based on reduced order models developed using site-specific data from two aquifers (alluvium and carbonate). The models accept aquifer parameters as a range of variable inputs so they may have more broad applicability. Guidelines have been developed for determining the aquifer types for which the ROMs should be applicable. This paper considers the applicability of the aquifer models in AIM to predicting the impact of CO2 or Brine leakage were it to occur at the Illinois Basin Decatur Project (IBDP). Based on the results of the sensitivity analysis, the hydraulic parameters and leakage source term magnitude are more sensitive than clay fraction or cation exchange capacity. Sand permeability was the only hydraulic parameter measured at the IBDP site. More information on the other hydraulic parameters, such as sand fraction and sand/clay correlation lengths, could reduce uncertainty in risk estimates. Some non-adjustable parameters, such as the initial pH and TDS and the pH no-impact threshold, are significantly different for the ROM than for the observations at the IBDP site. The reduced order model could be made more useful to a wider range of sites if the initial conditions and no-impact threshold values were adjustable parameters.

  9. Calculating Impacts of Energy Standards on Energy Demand in U.S. Buildings under Uncertainty with an Integrated Assessment Model: Technical Background Data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scott, Michael J. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Daly, Don S. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Hathaway, John E. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Lansing, Carina S. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Liu, Ying [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); McJeon, Haewon C. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Moss, Richard H. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Patel, Pralit L. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Peterson, Marty J. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Rice, Jennie S. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Zhou, Yuyu [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2014-12-06

    This report presents data and assumptions employed in an application of PNNL’s Global Change Assessment Model with a newly-developed Monte Carlo analysis capability. The model is used to analyze the impacts of more aggressive U.S. residential and commercial building-energy codes and equipment standards on energy consumption and energy service costs at the state level, explicitly recognizing uncertainty in technology effectiveness and cost, socioeconomics, presence or absence of carbon prices, and climate impacts on energy demand. The report provides a summary of how residential and commercial buildings are modeled, together with assumptions made for the distributions of state–level population, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per worker, efficiency and cost of residential and commercial energy equipment by end use, and efficiency and cost of residential and commercial building shells. The cost and performance of equipment and of building shells are reported separately for current building and equipment efficiency standards and for more aggressive standards. The report also details assumptions concerning future improvements brought about by projected trends in technology.

  10. A framework for modeling scenario-based barrier island storm impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mickey, Rangley; Long, Joseph W.; Dalyander, P. Soupy; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Thompson, David M.

    2018-01-01

    Methods for investigating the vulnerability of existing or proposed coastal features to storm impacts often rely on simplified parametric models or one-dimensional process-based modeling studies that focus on changes to a profile across a dune or barrier island. These simple studies tend to neglect the impacts to curvilinear or alongshore varying island planforms, influence of non-uniform nearshore hydrodynamics and sediment transport, irregular morphology of the offshore bathymetry, and impacts from low magnitude wave events (e.g. cold fronts). Presented here is a framework for simulating regionally specific, low and high magnitude scenario-based storm impacts to assess the alongshore variable vulnerabilities of a coastal feature. Storm scenarios based on historic hydrodynamic conditions were derived and simulated using the process-based morphologic evolution model XBeach. Model results show that the scenarios predicted similar patterns of erosion and overwash when compared to observed qualitative morphologic changes from recent storm events that were not included in the dataset used to build the scenarios. The framework model simulations were capable of predicting specific areas of vulnerability in the existing feature and the results illustrate how this storm vulnerability simulation framework could be used as a tool to help inform the decision-making process for scientists, engineers, and stakeholders involved in coastal zone management or restoration projects.

  11. 10 CFR 50.150 - Aircraft impact assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... maintained. (2) Aircraft impact characteristics.1 The assessment must be based on the beyond-design-basis... capabilities identified in paragraph (a)(1) of this section meet the assessment requirements in paragraph (a)(1... modified design features and functional capabilities continue to meet the assessment requirements in...

  12. Report on modelling the macroeconomic competitiveness impacts of EU climate change policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-01-01

    This report details the results of a study carried out by Oxford Economics on the macroeconomic impacts of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) on competitiveness in different sectors and different Member States. An economic model was used to assess the impacts of carbon pricing, building on previous work that looked at the effects on the UK economy. The model was used to estimate the impact on competitiveness and output associated with various carbon prices and assumptions for the proposed third EU ETS trading period (2013-2023) by sector for all countries. The model covered 30 sectors for each of the 27 EU Member states plus the USA, Japan and China. The report describes the EU model methodology (direct cost effects, second-round cost effects, cost effects without substitution, cost effects after substitution, pass through to prices, and output effects) and the key results in terms of: impacts of carbon-reduction policies unilateral EU action, sectoral impacts, electricity generation sector only; the non-power sector in the ETS; global action; developed world action; and a summary across all scenarios. The three annexes set out the UK Energy Industry Model (UKEIM), model equations for the EU-wide model and modelling assumptions for electricity generation

  13. Geomorphological hazards and environmental impact: Assessment and mapping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panizza, Mario

    In five sections the author develops the methods for the integration of geomorphological concepts into Environmental Impact and Mapping. The first section introduces the concepts of Impact and Risk through the relationships between Geomorphological Environment and Anthropical Element. The second section proposes a methodology for the determination of Geomorphological Hazard and the identification of Geomorphological Risk. The third section synthesizes the procedure for the compilation of a Geomorphological Hazards Map. The fourth section outlines the concepts of Geomorphological Resource Assessment for the analysis of the Environmental Impact. The fifth section considers the contribution of geomorphological studies and mapping in the procedure for Environmental Impact Assessment.

  14. Pathways and impacts of nitrogen in water bodies: establishing a framework for integrated assessment modelling of management benefits

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Mikael Skou; Kronvang, Brian; Carstensen, Jacob

    Monetization of environmental benefits has become relevant as an element of proportionality tests required for justifications under the EU’s Water Framework Directive article 4 (relating to benefits andcosts of measures). This study extends an impact pathway approach to analysis of aquatic...... the study demonstrates how state-of-the-art environmental modelling can be linked with valuation to provide an adequate cross-media assessment framework relevant to integrated water quality management. The results must be regarded as illustrative and more research is required in several areas to consolidate...... relationships relating to exposures. The findings nevertheless suggest the significance of health effects for overall monetary benefits related to ecological quality objectives for water....

  15. Rainfall-runoff modelling of the Okavango River catchment to assess impacts of land use change on runoff and downstream ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milzow, Christian; Bauer-Gottwein, Peter

    2010-05-01

    The competition between human water use and ecosystem water use is one of the major challenges for water resources management at the global scale. We analyse the situation for the Okavango River basin of southern Africa. The Okavango River is representative for many large rivers throughout the developing world in that it is ungauged and poorly studied. The Okavango basin - spanning over Angola, Namibia and Botswana - represents a multi-objective problem in an international setting. Economic benefits of agricultural development and conservation of ecosystem services call for opposed actions. A semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model of the Okavango catchment is set up using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The model is sufficiently physically based to simulate the impact on runoff of extent of agricultural use, crop types and management practices. Precipitation and temperature inputs are taken from datasets covering large parts of the globe. The methodology can thus easily be applied for other ungauged catchments. For temperature we use the ERA-Interim reanalysis product of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and for precipitation the Famine Early Warning Systems Network data (FEWS-Net). Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) data resulted in poor model performance compared to the FEWS-Net data. Presently, the upstream catchment in Angola is largely pristine and agriculture is basically restricted to dry land subsistence farming. But economic growth in Angola is likely to result in agricultural development and consequent impacts on catchment runoff. Land use scenarios that are simulated include large scale irrigated agriculture with water extractions from the river and the shallow aquifer. Climate change impacts are also studied and compared to land use change impacts. The downstream part of the basin consists of the large Okavango Wetlands, which are a biodiversity hotspot of global importance and, through tourism, an important

  16. PRACTICAL APPLICATION OF A MODEL FOR ASSESSING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petr NOVOTNÝ

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Rail transport is an important sub-sector of transport infrastructure. Disruption of its operation due to emergencies can result in a reduction in functional parameters of provided services with consequent impacts on society. Identification of critical elements of this system enables its timely and effective protection. On that ground, the article presents a draft model for assessing the criticality of railway infrastructure elements. This model uses a systems approach and multicriteria semi-quantitative analysis with weighted criteria for calculating the criticality of individual elements of the railway infrastructure. In the conclusion, it presents a practical application of the proposed model including the discussion of results.

  17. The Western Energy Corridor Initiative: Unconventional Fuel Development Issues, Impacts, and Management Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolfsberg, A.; Hagood, M.; Pasqualini, D.; Wood, T.; Wilson, C.; Witkowski, M.; Levitt, D.; Pawar, R.; Keating, G.; Ziock, H.

    2008-12-01

    The United States is increasingly dependent on imported oil and gas; commodities for which other nations are competing and for which future supply may be inadequate to support our transportation fuel needs. Therefore, a renewed interest in 'harder-to-get' unconventional fuels has emerged in both industry and government with directed focus on world class hydrocarbon resources within a corridor extending from Canada southward through the Rocky Mountain States. Within this Western Energy Corridor, co-located with significant conventional hydrocarbon and renewable energy resources, lie some of the world's richest unconventional hydrocarbon resources in oil shales, oil sands and coal for coal-to-liquid conversion. However, development of these resources poses substantial environmental concerns as well as increasing competition for limited resources of water and habitat. With large-scale energy development in the predominantly rural region, local communities, infrastructures, and economies will face increasing demands for roads, electricity, law enforcement, labor, and other support services. The Western Energy Corridor Initiative (WECI) seeks to develop an integrated assessment of the impacts of unconventional fuel development, the interrelationships of planned energy developments in different basins, and the resultant demands placed on the region. This initial WECI study focuses on two of the most important current issues for industry, regulators, and stakeholders -- the assessment of carbon and water resources issues, impacts, and management strategies. Through scenario analyses using coupled systems and process level models, this study investigates the viability of integrated development of multiple energy resources in a carbon neutral and environmentally acceptable manner, and the interrelationships of various energy resource development plans. The modeling framework is designed to extend to include infrastructure, employment, training, fiscal and economic demands

  18. Waste Isolation Pilot Plant environmental impact report: socioeconomic portion. An outline of the input-output model and the impact projections methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1978-07-01

    A static model in the form of a regional input-output model was constructed for Eddy and Lea Counties, New Mexico. This modeling process has been used to assess the economic impacts of the following activities and for the following agencies: San Juan Generating Units Nos. 1, 3, and 4 for Public Service Company of New Mexico, and general economic impacts (an ongoing process) for the Bureau of Business and Economic Research, University of New Mexico. The regional modeling process adjusts a national model by means of location quotients and aggregating techniques. The national model, or base model, used in this process contains 407 economic categories or subsectors of the economy, 389 of which represent the private economy, and 18 of which represent activities mostly dealing with the public sector. The 389 identified sub-sectors were used in the modeling process; the government impact was computed after the private sector analysis

  19. An Investigation of the Factors Affecting Performance of Environmental Impact Assessment Practices (EIA in Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shahbaz Hussain

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Environmental Impact Assessment is used to detect changes that a proposed project may have on environment. The intent of present study is to investigate impact of institutional capacity and legal framework on performance of Environmental Impact Assessment practices in Pakistan such as screening, scoping and mitigation, environmental management plan and reporting. Sample of 200 EIA professionals have been selected by using random sampling approach from all provinces of Pakistan. Data has been collected through structured questionnaire and analysed by using AMOS 19 (Analysis of Moment Structures software. Results of path analysis indicated that institutional capacity and legal framework have significant direct impact on performance of all EIA practices in Pakistan. Model fit statistics such as GFI, RMR, NFI, IFI, TLI, RFI, CFI indicate the fitness of research model in this context. It has been suggested that there must be relevant and sufficient human resources that can uplift institutional capacity and legal framework must be well implemented because it will lead to enhanced performance of EIA practices in Pakistan.

  20. Climate change impacts and adaptation options for the Greek agriculture in 2021–2050: A monetary assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Georgopoulou

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents a quantitative assessment of mid-term (2021–2050 climate change impacts on and potential adaptation options for selected crops in Greece that are of importance in terms of their share in national agricultural production and gross value added. Central points in the assessment are the monetary evaluation of impacts and the cost-benefit analysis of adaptation options. To address local variability in current and future climate conditions, analysis is spatially disaggregated into geographical regions using as an input downscaled results from climatic models. For some crops (cereals, vegetables, pulses, grapevines, changes in future agricultural yields are assessed by means of agronomic simulation models, while for the rest crops changes are assessed through regression models. The expected effects on crop yields of a number of potential adaptation options are also investigated through the same models, and the costs and benefits of these options are also quantitatively assessed. The findings indicate that climate change may create winners and losers depending on their agricultural activity and location, while adaptation can mitigate adverse effects of climate change under cost-effective terms.

  1. Construction of climate change scenarios from transient climate change experiments for the IPCC impacts assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Viner, D.; Hulme, M.; Raper, S.C.B.; Jones, P.D.

    1994-01-01

    This paper outlines the different methods which may be used for the construction of regional climate change scenarios. The main focus of the paper is the construction of global climate change scenarios from climate change experiments carried out using General Circulation Models (GCMS) An introduction to some GCM climate change experiments highlights the difference between model types and experiments (e.g., equilibrium or transient). The latest generation of climate change experiments has been performed using fully coupled ocean-atmosphere GCMS. These allow transient simulations of climate change to be performed with respect to a given greenhouse gas forcing scenario. There are, however, a number of problems with these simulations which pose difficulties for the construction of climate change scenarios for use in climate change impacts assessment. The characteristics of the transient climate change experiments which pose difficulties for the construction of climate change scenarios are discussed. Three examples of these problems are: different climate change experiments use different greenhouse gas concentration scenarios; the 'cold-start' problem makes it difficult to link future projections of climate change to a given calendar year; a drift of the climate is noticeable in the control simulations. In order to construct climate change scenarios for impacts assessment a method has therefore to be employed which addresses these problems. At present the climate modeling and climate change impacts communities are somewhat polarized in their approach to spatial scales. Current GCMs model the climate at resolutions larger than 2.5 x 3.75 degree, while the majority of impacts assessment studies are undertaken at scales below 50km (or 0.5 degree). This paper concludes by addressing the problems in bringing together these two different modeling perspectives by presenting a number of regional climate change scenarios. 35 refs., 8 figs., 2 tabs

  2. The Insignificance of Thresholds in Environmental Impact Assessment: An Illustrative Case Study in Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, Cathryn Clarke; Wong, Janson; Singh, Gerald G.; Mach, Megan; Lerner, Jackie; Ranieri, Bernardo; Peterson St-Laurent, Guillaume; Guimaraes, Alice; Chan, Kai M. A.

    2018-06-01

    Environmental assessment is the process that decision-makers rely on to predict, evaluate, and prevent biophysical, social, and economic impacts of potential project developments. The determination of significance in environmental assessment is central to environmental management in many nations. We reviewed ten recent environmental impact assessments from British Columbia, Canada and systematically reviewed and scored significance determination and the approaches used by assessors, the use of thresholds in significance determination, threshold exceedances, and the outcomes. Findings of significant impacts were exceedingly rare and practitioners used a combination of significance determination approaches, most commonly relying upon reasoned argumentation. Quantitative thresholds were rarely employed, with less than 10% of the valued components evaluated using thresholds. Even where quantitative thresholds for significance were exceeded, in every case practitioners used a variety of rationales to demote negative impacts to non-significance. These reasons include combinations of scale (temporal and spatial) of impacts, an already exceeded baseline, model uncertainty and/or substituting less stringent thresholds. Governments and agencies can better protect resources by requiring clear and defensible significance determinations, by making government-defined thresholds legally enforceable and accountable, and by requiring or encouraging significance determination through inclusive and collaborative approaches.

  3. The environmental impact assessment of uranium mining in Australia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morvell, G.

    2002-01-01

    Federal environmental impact assessment legislation has existed in Australia since 1974. A number of uranium mines have been developed in this time, utilizing a range of mining techniques, including opencut, underground and in-situ leach. Projects have also been undertaken in a variety of geographical areas requiring consideration of diverse biodiversity, cultural heritage and social impact issues. Assessment of uranium mining proposals in Australia is also conducted in a climate of political opposition from a cross section of the Australian community. This paper outlines some of the key issues that arose during recent assessments and which provide a lead to the role of environmental impact assessment in environmental policy development. Issues are also relevant to recent assessments on a replacement nuclear reactor, shipments of waste for reprocessing and proposed assessments on proposals for low and intermediate level nuclear waste facilities. (author)

  4. Assessing the demographic and public service impacts of repository siting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murdock, S.H.; Hamm, R.R.

    1983-01-01

    Demographic and public service impacts are likely to be among the most evident of those changes resulting from nuclear waste repository development. Knowledge of the characteristics of such impacts and of the means to assess them is critical. The first section of this chapter examines those likely to be unique to repositories. The second section describes the alternatives for assessing such impacts and the particular difficulties likely to affect the assessments. Given the state of development of techniques for assessing impacts and the range of factors that must be considered, perhaps their best use is as a means of sensitizing decision makers to the potential implications of their decisions. 2 tables

  5. Spatial Growth Modeling and High Resolution Remote Sensing Data Coupled with Air Quality Modeling to Assess the Impact of Atlanta, Georgia on the Local and Regional Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.; Crosson, William; Johnson, Hoyt; Khan, Maudood

    2006-01-01

    The growth of cities, both in population and areal extent, appears as an inexorable process. Urbanization continues at a rapid rate, and it is estimated that by the year 2025, 60 percent of the world s population will live in cities. Urban expansion has profound impacts on a host of biophysical, environmental, and atmospheric processes within an urban ecosystems perspective. A reduction in air quality over cities is a major result of these impacts. Because of its complexity, the urban landscape is not adequately captured in air quality models such as the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model that is used to assess whether urban areas are in attainment of EPA air quality standards, primarily for ground level ozone. This inadequacy of the CMAQ model to sufficiently respond to the heterogeneous nature of the urban landscape can impact how well the model predicts ozone levels over metropolitan areas and ultimately, whether cities exceed EPA ozone air quality standards. We are exploring the utility of high-resolution remote sensing data and urban spatial growth modeling (SGM) projections as improved inputs to a meteorological/air quality modeling system focusing on the Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan area as a case study. These growth projections include business as usual and smart growth scenarios out to 2030. The growth projections illustrate the effects of employing urban heat island mitigation strategies, such as increasing tree canopy and albedo across the Atlanta metro area, which in turn, are used to model how air temperature can potentially be moderated as impacts on elevating ground-level ozone, as opposed to not utilizing heat island mitigation strategies. The National Land Cover Dataset at 30m resolution is being used as the land use/land cover input and aggregated to the 4km scale for the MM5 mesoscale meteorological model and the CMAQ modeling schemes. Use of these data has been found to better characterize low density/suburban development as compared

  6. Economic Impact Assessment of Alternative Climate Policy Strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kemfert, C.

    2001-10-01

    This paper investigates the world economic implications of climate change policy strategies, especially the evaluation of impacts by an implementation of Clean Development Mechanisms, Joint Implementation and Emissions trading with a world integrated assessment model. Of special interest in this context are the welfare spill over and competitiveness effects that result from diverse climate policy strategies. In particular, this study elaborates and compares multi gas policy strategies and explores the impacts of the inclusion of sinks. Because of the recent decision of an isolated climate policy strategy by the United States of America, we examine the economic impacts of all world regions by a non cooperative and free rider position of the USA. It turns out that Clean Development Mechanisms and Joint Implementation show evidence of improvement in the economic development in the host countries and increase the share of new applied technologies. The decomposition of welfare effects demonstrates that the competitiveness effect including the spill over effects from trade have the strongest importance because of the intense trade relations between countries. Climatic effects have a significant impact within the next 50 years, cause considerable welfare losses to world regions and will intensify if some highly responsible nations like the USA do not reduce their emissions

  7. Life cycle modelling of environmental impacts from application of processed organic municipal solid waste on agricultural land (EASEWASTE)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Trine Lund; Bhander, Gurbakhash Singh; Christensen, Thomas Højlund

    2006-01-01

    and use of commercial fertilizers. The model is part of a larger model, Environmental Assessment of Solid Waste Systems and Technology (EASEWASTE), developed as a decisionsupport model, focusing on assessment of alternative waste management options. The environmental impacts of the land application......A model capable of quantifying the potential environmental impacts of agricultural application of composted or anaerobically digested source-separated organic municipal solid waste (MSW) is presented. In addition to the direct impacts, the model accounts for savings by avoiding the production...... of processed organic waste are quantified by emission coefficients referring to the composition of the processed waste and related to specific crop rotation as well as soil type. The model contains several default parameters based on literature data, field experiments and modelling by the agro-ecosystem model...

  8. Development Impact Assessment (DIA) Case Study. South Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cox, Sadie [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Nawaz, Kathleen [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sandor, Debra [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2015-05-19

    This case study reviews South Africa’s experience in considering the impacts of climate change action on development goals, focusing on the South African energy sector and development impact assessments (DIAs) that have and could be used to influence energy policy or inform the selection of energy activities. It includes a review of assessments—conducted by government ministries, technical partners, and academic institutes and non-governmental organizations (NGOs)—that consider employment, health, and water implications of possible energy sector actions, as well as multi-criteria impact assessments.

  9. Climate Change in Environmental Impact Assessment of Renewable Energy Projects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Sanne Vammen

    2012-01-01

    Many renewable energy projects are subject to EIA. However a question that surfaces is what use an impact assessment is when the project is ‘good for the environment’? One of the current topics receiving much attention in impact assessment is climate change and how this factor is integrated...... in impact assessments. This warrants the question: How do we assess the climate change related impacts of a project that inherently has a positive effect on climate? This paper is based on a document study of EIA reports from Denmark. The results show that climate change is included in most of the EIA...... reports reviewed, and that only climate change mitigation is in focus while adaptation is absent. Also the results point to focus on positive impacts, while the indirect negative impacts are less apparent. This leads to a discussion of the results in the light of the purpose of EIA....

  10. Bone hyperalgesia after mechanical impact stimulation: a human experimental pain model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finocchietti, Sara; Graven-Nielsen, Thomas; Arendt-Nielsen, Lars

    2014-12-01

    Hyperalgesia in different musculoskeletal structures including bones is a major clinical problem. An experimental bone hyperalgesia model was developed in the present study. Hyperalgesia was induced by three different weights impacted on the shinbone in 16 healthy male and female subjects. The mechanical impact pain threshold (IPT) was measured as the height from which three weights (165, 330, and 660 g) should be dropped to elicit pain at the shinbone. Temporal summation of pain to repeated impact stimuli was assessed. All these stimuli caused bone hyperalgesia. The pressure pain threshold (PPT) was assessed by a computerized pressure algometer using two different probes (1.0 and 0.5 cm(2)). All parameters were recorded before (0), 24, 72, and 96 h after the initial stimulations. The IPTs were lowest 24 h after hyperalgesia induction for all three weights and the effect lasted up to 72 h (p pain and hyperalgesia model may provide the basis for studying this fundamental mechanism of bone-related hyperalgesia and be used for profiling compounds developed for this target.

  11. Integrating Urban Infrastructure and Health System Impact Modeling for Disasters and Mass-Casualty Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balbus, J. M.; Kirsch, T.; Mitrani-Reiser, J.

    2017-12-01

    Over recent decades, natural disasters and mass-casualty events in United States have repeatedly revealed the serious consequences of health care facility vulnerability and the subsequent ability to deliver care for the affected people. Advances in predictive modeling and vulnerability assessment for health care facility failure, integrated infrastructure, and extreme weather events have now enabled a more rigorous scientific approach to evaluating health care system vulnerability and assessing impacts of natural and human disasters as well as the value of specific interventions. Concurrent advances in computing capacity also allow, for the first time, full integration of these multiple individual models, along with the modeling of population behaviors and mass casualty responses during a disaster. A team of federal and academic investigators led by the National Center for Disaster Medicine and Public Health (NCDMPH) is develoing a platform for integrating extreme event forecasts, health risk/impact assessment and population simulations, critical infrastructure (electrical, water, transportation, communication) impact and response models, health care facility-specific vulnerability and failure assessments, and health system/patient flow responses. The integration of these models is intended to develop much greater understanding of critical tipping points in the vulnerability of health systems during natural and human disasters and build an evidence base for specific interventions. Development of such a modeling platform will greatly facilitate the assessment of potential concurrent or sequential catastrophic events, such as a terrorism act following a severe heat wave or hurricane. This presentation will highlight the development of this modeling platform as well as applications not just for the US health system, but also for international science-based disaster risk reduction efforts, such as the Sendai Framework and the WHO SMART hospital project.

  12. A probabilistic assessment of climate change impacts on yield and nitrogen leaching from winter wheat in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Børgesen, Christen Duus; Olesen, Jørgen E

    2011-01-01

    Climate change will impact agricultural production both directly and indirectly, but uncertainties related to likely impacts constrain current political decision making on adaptation. This analysis focuses on a methodology for applying probabilistic climate change projections to assess modelled...... the importance of including soil information for regional studies of climate change impacts on cropping systems....

  13. Impact assessment of commodity standards

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ruben, Ruerd

    2017-01-01

    Voluntary commodity standards are widely used to enhance the performance of tropical agro-food chains and to support the welfare and sustainability of smallholder farmers. Different methods and approaches are used to assess the effectiveness and impact of these certification schemes at

  14. Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in Zarrinehrud Basin Using SWAT Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Mansouri

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper evaluate impacts of climate change on temperature, rainfall and runoff in the future Using statistical model, LARS-WG, and conceptual hydrological model, SWAT. In order to the Zarrinehrud river basin, as the biggest catchment of the Lake Urmia basin was selected as a case study. At first, for the generation of future weather data in the basin, LARS-WG model was calibrated using meteorological data and then 14 models of AOGCM were applied and results of these models were downscaled using LARS-WG model in 6 synoptic stations for period of 2015 to 2030. SWAT model was used for evaluation of climate change impacts on runoff in the basin. In order to, the model was calibrated and validated using 6 gauging stations for period of 1987-2007 and the value of R2 was between 0.49 and 0.71 for calibration and between 0.54 and 0.77 for validation. Then by introducing average of downscaled results of AOGCM models to the SWAT, runoff changes of the basin were simulated during 2015-2030. Average of results of LARS-WG model indicated that the monthly mean of minimum and maximum temperatures will increase compared to the baseline period. Also monthly average of precipitation will decrease in spring season but will increase in summer and autumn. The results showed that in addition to the amount of precipitation, its pattern will change in the future period, too. The results of runoff simulation showed that the amount of inflow to the Zarrinehrud reservoir will reduce 28.4 percent compared to the baseline period.

  15. An assessment of alternative agricultural management practice impacts on soil carbon in the corn belt

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barnwell, T.O. Jr.; Jackson, R.B.; Mulkey, L.A. [Environmental Research Laboratory, Athens, GA (United States)

    1993-12-31

    This impact of alternative management practices on agricultural soil C is estimated by a soil C mass balance modeling study that incorporates policy considerations in the analysis. A literature review of soil C modeling and impacts of management practices has been completed. The models selected for use and/or modification to meet the needs of representing soil C cycles in agroecosystems and impacts of management practices are CENTURY and DNDC. These models share a common ability to examine the impacts of alternative management practices on soil organic C, and are readily accessible. An important aspect of this effort is the development of the modeling framework and methodology that define the agricultural production systems and scenarios (i.e., crop-soil-climate combinations) to be assessed in terms of national policy, the integration of the model needs with available databases, and the operational mechanics of evaluating C sequestration potential with the integrated model/database system. We are working closely with EPA`s Office of Policy and Program Evaluation to define a reasonable set of policy alternatives for this assessment focusing on policy that might be affected through a revised Farm Bill, such as incentives to selectively promote conservation tillage, crop rotations, and/or good stewardship of the conservation reserve. Policy alternatives are translated into basic data for use in soil C models through economic models. These data, including such elements as agricultural practices, fertilization rates, and production levels are used in the soil C models to produce net carbon changes on a per unit area basis. The unit-area emissions are combined with areal-extent data in a GIS to produce an estimate of total carbon and nitrogen changes and thus estimate greenhouse benefits.

  16. Power station impacts: socio-economic impact assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glasson, John; Elson, Martin; Barrett, Brendan; Wee, D. Van der

    1987-01-01

    The aim of this study is to assess the local social and economic impacts of a proposed nuclear power station development at Hinkley Point in Somerset. The proposed development, Hinkley Point C, would be an addition to the existing Hinkley Point A Magnox station, commissioned in 1965, and the Hinkley Point B Advanced Gas Cooled Reactor (AGR) station, commissioned in 1976. It is hoped that the study will be of assistance to the CEGB, the Somerset County and District Councils and other agencies in their studies of the proposed development. In addition, the study seeks to apply and further develop the methodology and results from previous studies by the Power Station Impacts (PSI) team for predicting the social and economic effects of proposed power station developments on their localities. (author)

  17. Workshop: Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis: Modeling Climate Change Impacts and Associated Economic Damages (2011 - part 2)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The purpose of this workshop Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis. focused on conceptual and methodological issues - estimating impacts and valuing damages on a sectoral basis.

  18. Assessing the environmental impacts of freshwater consumption in LCA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfister, Stephan; Koehler, Annette; Hellweg, Stefanie

    2009-06-01

    A method for assessing the environmental impacts of freshwater consumption was developed. This method considers damages to three areas of protection: human health, ecosystem quality, and resources. The method can be used within most existing life-cycle impact assessment (LCIA) methods. The relative importance of water consumption was analyzed by integrating the method into the Eco-indicator-99 LCIA method. The relative impact of water consumption in LCIA was analyzed with a case study on worldwide cotton production. The importance of regionalized characterization factors for water use was also examined in the case study. In arid regions, water consumption may dominate the aggregated life-cycle impacts of cotton-textile production. Therefore, the consideration of water consumption is crucial in life-cycle assessment (LCA) studies that include water-intensive products, such as agricultural goods. A regionalized assessment is necessary, since the impacts of water use vary greatly as a function of location. The presented method is useful for environmental decision-support in the production of water-intensive products as well as for environmentally responsible value-chain management.

  19. A stepwise approach for introducing numerical modeling in Environmental Engineering MSc unit: The impact of clear assessment criteria and detailed feedback

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosolem, R.; Pritchard, J.

    2017-12-01

    An important aspect for the new generation of hydrologists and water resources managers is the understanding of hydrological processes through the application of numerical environmental models. Despite its importance, teaching numerical modeling subjects to young students in our MSc Water and Environment Management programme has been difficult, for instance, due to the wide range of student background and lack or poor contact with numerical modeling tools in the past. In previous years, this numerical skills concept has been introduced as a project assignment in our Terrestrial Hydrometeorology unit. However, previous efforts have shown non-optimal engagement by students with often signs of lack of interest or anxiety. Given our initial experience with this unit, we decided to make substantial changes to the coursework format with the aim to introduce a more efficient learning environment to the students. The proposed changes include: (1) a clear presentation and discussion of the assessment criteria at the beginning of the unit, (2) a stepwise approach in which students use our learning environment to acquire knowledge for individual components of the model step-by-step, and (3) access to timely and detailed feedback allowing for particular steps to be retraced or retested. In order to understand the overall impact on assessment and feedback, we carried out two surveys at the beginning and end of the module. Our results indicate a positive impact to student learning experience, as the students have clearly benefited from the early discussion on assignment criteria and appeared to have correctly identified the skills and knowledge required to carry out the assignment. In addition, we have observed a substantial increase in the quality of the reports. Our results results support that student engagement has increased since changes to the format of the coursework were introduced. Interestingly, we also observed a positive impact on the assignment to the final exam

  20. Spatial information in public consultation within environmental impact assessments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mwenda, A.N.

    2015-01-01

    Thesis Summary

    Spatial information in public consultation within Environmental Impact Assessments

    Angela N. Mwenda

    Established in the United States of America in 1970, Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) is an interdisciplinary approach that