Towards methodical modelling: Differences between the structure and output dynamics of multiple conceptual models

Science.gov (United States)

Knoben, Wouter; Woods, Ross; Freer, Jim

2016-04-01

Conceptual hydrologic models consist of a certain arrangement of spatial and temporal dynamics consisting of stores, fluxes and transformation functions, depending on the modeller's choices and intended use. They have the advantages of being computationally efficient, being relatively easy model structures to reconfigure and having relatively low input data demands. This makes them well-suited for large-scale and large-sample hydrology, where appropriately representing the dominant hydrologic functions of a catchment is a main concern. Given these requirements, the number of parameters in the model cannot be too high, to avoid equifinality and identifiability issues. This limits the number and level of complexity of dominant hydrologic processes the model can represent. Specific purposes and places thus require a specific model and this has led to an abundance of conceptual hydrologic models. No structured overview of these models exists and there is no clear method to select appropriate model structures for different catchments. This study is a first step towards creating an overview of the elements that make up conceptual models, which may later assist a modeller in finding an appropriate model structure for a given catchment. To this end, this study brings together over 30 past and present conceptual models. The reviewed model structures are simply different configurations of three basic model elements (stores, fluxes and transformation functions), depending on the hydrologic processes the models are intended to represent. Differences also exist in the inner workings of the stores, fluxes and transformations, i.e. the mathematical formulations that describe each model element's intended behaviour. We investigate the hypothesis that different model structures can produce similar behavioural simulations. This can clarify the overview of model elements by grouping elements which are similar, which can improve model structure selection.

Understanding the Dynamics of Socio-Hydrological Environment: a Conceptual Framework

Science.gov (United States)

Woyessa, Y.; Welderufael, W.; Edossa, D.

2011-12-01

Human actions affect ecological systems and the services they provide through various activities, such as land use, water use, pollution and climate change. Climate change is perhaps one of the most important sustainable development challenges that threaten to undo many of the development efforts being made to reach the targets set for the Millennium Development Goals. Understanding the change of ecosystems under different scenarios of climate and biophysical conditions could assist in bringing the issue of ecosystem services into decision making process. Similarly, the impacts of land use change on ecosystems and biodiversity have received considerable attention from ecologists and hydrologists alike. Land use change in a catchment can impact on water supply by altering hydrological processes, such as infiltration, groundwater recharge, base flow and direct runoff. In the past a variety of models were used for predicting land-use changes. Recently the focus has shifted away from using mathematically oriented models to agent-based modelling (ABM) approach to simulate land use scenarios. A conceptual framework is being developed which integrates climate change scenarios and the human dimension of land use decision into a hydrological model in order to assess its impacts on the socio-hydrological dynamics of a river basin. The following figures present the framework for the analysis and modelling of the socio-hydrological dynamics. Keywords: climate change, land use, river basin

How much cryosphere model complexity is just right? Exploration using the conceptual cryosphere hydrology framework

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T. M. Mosier

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Making meaningful projections of the impacts that possible future climates would have on water resources in mountain regions requires understanding how cryosphere hydrology model performance changes under altered climate conditions and when the model is applied to ungaged catchments. Further, if we are to develop better models, we must understand which specific process representations limit model performance. This article presents a modeling tool, named the Conceptual Cryosphere Hydrology Framework (CCHF, that enables implementing and evaluating a wide range of cryosphere modeling hypotheses. The CCHF represents cryosphere hydrology systems using a set of coupled process modules that allows easily interchanging individual module representations and includes analysis tools to evaluate model outputs. CCHF version 1 (Mosier, 2016 implements model formulations that require only precipitation and temperature as climate inputs – for example variations on simple degree-index (SDI or enhanced temperature index (ETI formulations – because these model structures are often applied in data-sparse mountain regions, and perform relatively well over short periods, but their calibration is known to change based on climate and geography. Using CCHF, we implement seven existing and novel models, including one existing SDI model, two existing ETI models, and four novel models that utilize a combination of existing and novel module representations. The novel module representations include a heat transfer formulation with net longwave radiation and a snowpack internal energy formulation that uses an approximation of the cold content. We assess the models for the Gulkana and Wolverine glaciated watersheds in Alaska, which have markedly different climates and contain long-term US Geological Survey benchmark glaciers. Overall we find that the best performing models are those that are more physically consistent and representative, but no single model performs

Integrated hydrologic model of Pajaro Valley, Santa Cruz and Monterey Counties, California

Science.gov (United States)

Hanson, Randall T.; Schmid, Wolfgang; Faunt, Claudia C.; Lear, Jonathan; Lockwood, Brian

2014-01-01

Increasing population, agricultural development (including shifts to more water-intensive crops), and climate variability are placing increasingly larger demands on available groundwater resources in the Pajaro Valley, one of the most productive agricultural regions in the world. This study provided a refined conceptual model, geohydrologic framework, and integrated hydrologic model of the Pajaro Valley. The goal of this study was to produce a model capable of being accurate at scales relevant to water management decisions that are being considered in the revision and updates to the Basin Management Plan (BMP). The Pajaro Valley Hydrologic Model (PVHM) was designed to reproduce the most important natural and human components of the hydrologic system and related climatic factors, permitting an accurate assessment of groundwater conditions and processes that can inform the new BMP and help to improve planning for long-term sustainability of water resources. Model development included a revision of the conceptual model of the flow system, reevaluation of the previous model transformed into MODFLOW, implementation of the new geohydrologic model and conceptual model, and calibration of the transient hydrologic model.

Model Calibration in Watershed Hydrology

Science.gov (United States)

Yilmaz, Koray K.; Vrugt, Jasper A.; Gupta, Hoshin V.; Sorooshian, Soroosh

2009-01-01

Hydrologic models use relatively simple mathematical equations to conceptualize and aggregate the complex, spatially distributed, and highly interrelated water, energy, and vegetation processes in a watershed. A consequence of process aggregation is that the model parameters often do not represent directly measurable entities and must, therefore, be estimated using measurements of the system inputs and outputs. During this process, known as model calibration, the parameters are adjusted so that the behavior of the model approximates, as closely and consistently as possible, the observed response of the hydrologic system over some historical period of time. This Chapter reviews the current state-of-the-art of model calibration in watershed hydrology with special emphasis on our own contributions in the last few decades. We discuss the historical background that has led to current perspectives, and review different approaches for manual and automatic single- and multi-objective parameter estimation. In particular, we highlight the recent developments in the calibration of distributed hydrologic models using parameter dimensionality reduction sampling, parameter regularization and parallel computing.

Putting hydrological modelling practice to the test

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Melsen, Lieke Anna

2017-01-01

Six steps can be distinguished in the process of hydrological modelling: the perceptual model (deciding on the processes), the conceptual model (deciding on the equations), the procedural model (get the code to run on a computer), calibration (identify the parameters), evaluation (confronting

Sensitivity of hydrological performance assessment analysis to variations in material properties, conceptual models, and ventilation models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sobolik, S.R.; Ho, C.K.; Dunn, E. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Robey, T.H. [Spectra Research Inst., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Cruz, W.T. [Univ. del Turabo, Gurabo (Puerto Rico)

1996-07-01

The Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project is studying Yucca Mountain in southwestern Nevada as a potential site for a high-level nuclear waste repository. Site characterization includes surface- based and underground testing. Analyses have been performed to support the design of an Exploratory Studies Facility (ESF) and the design of the tests performed as part of the characterization process, in order to ascertain that they have minimal impact on the natural ability of the site to isolate waste. The information in this report pertains to sensitivity studies evaluating previous hydrological performance assessment analyses to variation in the material properties, conceptual models, and ventilation models, and the implications of this sensitivity on previous recommendations supporting ESF design. This document contains information that has been used in preparing recommendations for Appendix I of the Exploratory Studies Facility Design Requirements document.

Sensitivity of hydrological performance assessment analysis to variations in material properties, conceptual models, and ventilation models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sobolik, S.R.; Ho, C.K.; Dunn, E.; Robey, T.H.; Cruz, W.T.

1996-07-01

The Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project is studying Yucca Mountain in southwestern Nevada as a potential site for a high-level nuclear waste repository. Site characterization includes surface- based and underground testing. Analyses have been performed to support the design of an Exploratory Studies Facility (ESF) and the design of the tests performed as part of the characterization process, in order to ascertain that they have minimal impact on the natural ability of the site to isolate waste. The information in this report pertains to sensitivity studies evaluating previous hydrological performance assessment analyses to variation in the material properties, conceptual models, and ventilation models, and the implications of this sensitivity on previous recommendations supporting ESF design. This document contains information that has been used in preparing recommendations for Appendix I of the Exploratory Studies Facility Design Requirements document

Socio-Hydrology: Conceptual and Methodological Challenges in the Bidirectional Coupling of Human and Water Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Scott, C. A.

2014-12-01

This presentation reviews conceptual advances in the emerging field of socio-hydrology that focuses on coupled human and water systems. An important current challenge is how to better couple the bidirectional influences between human and water systems, which lead to emergent dynamics. The interactions among (1) the structure and dynamics of systems with (2) human values and norms lead to (3) outcomes, which in turn influence subsequent interactions. Human influences on hydrological systems are relatively well understood, chiefly resulting from developments in the field of water resources. The ecosystem-service concept of cultural value has expanded understanding of decision-making beyond economic rationality criteria. Hydrological impacts on social processes are less well developed conceptually, but this is changing with growing attention to vulnerability, adaptation, and resilience, particularly in the face of climate change. Methodological limitations, especially in characterizing the range of human responses to hydrological events and drivers, still pose challenges to modeling bidirectional human-water influences. Evidence from multiple case studies, synthesized in more broadly generic syndromes, helps surmount these methodological limitations and offers the potential to improve characterization and quantification of socio-hydrological systems.

A conceptual socio-hydrological model of the co-evolution of humans and water: case study of the Tarim River basin, western China

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, D.; Tian, F.; Lin, M.; Sivapalan, M.

2015-02-01

The complex interactions and feedbacks between humans and water are critically important issues but remain poorly understood in the newly proposed discipline of socio-hydrology (Sivapalan et al., 2012). An exploratory model with the appropriate level of simplification can be valuable for improving our understanding of the co-evolution and self-organization of socio-hydrological systems driven by interactions and feedbacks operating at different scales. In this study, a simplified conceptual socio-hydrological model based on logistic growth curves is developed for the Tarim River basin in western China and is used to illustrate the explanatory power of such a co-evolutionary model. The study area is the main stream of the Tarim River, which is divided into two modeling units. The socio-hydrological system is composed of four sub-systems, i.e., the hydrological, ecological, economic, and social sub-systems. In each modeling unit, the hydrological equation focusing on water balance is coupled to the other three evolutionary equations to represent the dynamics of the social sub-system (denoted by population), the economic sub-system (denoted by irrigated crop area ratio), and the ecological sub-system (denoted by natural vegetation cover), each of which is expressed in terms of a logistic growth curve. Four feedback loops are identified to represent the complex interactions among different sub-systems and different spatial units, of which two are inner loops occurring within each separate unit and the other two are outer loops linking the two modeling units. The feedback mechanisms are incorporated into the constitutive relations for model parameters, i.e., the colonization and mortality rates in the logistic growth curves that are jointly determined by the state variables of all sub-systems. The co-evolution of the Tarim socio-hydrological system is then analyzed with this conceptual model to gain insights into the overall system dynamics and its sensitivity to the

Information on Hydrologic Conceptual Models, Parameters, Uncertainty Analysis, and Data Sources for Dose Assessments at Decommissioning Sites

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Meyer, Philip D.; Gee, Glendon W.; Nicholson, Thomas J.

1999-01-01

This report addresses issues related to the analysis of uncertainty in dose assessments conducted as part of decommissioning analyses. The analysis is limited to the hydrologic aspects of the exposure pathway involving infiltration of water at the ground surface, leaching of contaminants, and transport of contaminants through the groundwater to a point of exposure. The basic conceptual models and mathematical implementations of three dose assessment codes are outlined along with the site-specific conditions under which the codes may provide inaccurate, potentially nonconservative results. In addition, the hydrologic parameters of the codes are identified and compared. A methodology for parameter uncertainty assessment is outlined that considers the potential data limitations and modeling needs of decommissioning analyses. This methodology uses generic parameter distributions based on national or regional databases, sensitivity analysis, probabilistic modeling, and Bayesian updating to incorporate site-specific information. Data sources for best-estimate parameter values and parameter uncertainty information are also reviewed. A follow-on report will illustrate the uncertainty assessment methodology using decommissioning test cases

Information on Hydrologic Conceptual Models, Parameters, Uncertainty Analysis, and Data Sources for Dose Assessments at Decommissioning Sites

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Meyer D, Philip; Gee W, Glendon

2000-01-01

This report addresses issues related to the analysis of uncertainty in dose assessments conducted as part of decommissioning analyses. The analysis is limited to the hydrologic aspects of the exposure pathway involving infiltration of water at the ground surface, leaching of contaminants, and transport of contaminants through the groundwater to a point of exposure. The basic conceptual models and mathematical implementations of three dose assessment codes are outlined along with the site-specific conditions under which the codes may provide inaccurate, potentially nonconservative results. In addition, the hydrologic parameters of the codes are identified and compared. A methodology for parameter uncertainty assessment is outlined that considers the potential data limitations and modeling needs of decommissioning analyses. This methodology uses generic parameter distributions based on national or regional databases, sensitivity analysis, probabilistic modeling, and Bayesian updating to incorporate site-specific information. Data sources for best-estimate parameter values and parameter uncertainty information are also reviewed. A follow-on report will illustrate the uncertainty assessment methodology using decommissioning test cases

Probabilistic graphs as a conceptual and computational tool in hydrology and water management

Science.gov (United States)

Schoups, Gerrit

2014-05-01

Originally developed in the fields of machine learning and artificial intelligence, probabilistic graphs constitute a general framework for modeling complex systems in the presence of uncertainty. The framework consists of three components: 1. Representation of the model as a graph (or network), with nodes depicting random variables in the model (e.g. parameters, states, etc), which are joined together by factors. Factors are local probabilistic or deterministic relations between subsets of variables, which, when multiplied together, yield the joint distribution over all variables. 2. Consistent use of probability theory for quantifying uncertainty, relying on basic rules of probability for assimilating data into the model and expressing unknown variables as a function of observations (via the posterior distribution). 3. Efficient, distributed approximation of the posterior distribution using general-purpose algorithms that exploit model structure encoded in the graph. These attributes make probabilistic graphs potentially useful as a conceptual and computational tool in hydrology and water management (and beyond). Conceptually, they can provide a common framework for existing and new probabilistic modeling approaches (e.g. by drawing inspiration from other fields of application), while computationally they can make probabilistic inference feasible in larger hydrological models. The presentation explores, via examples, some of these benefits.

Chance-constrained overland flow modeling for improving conceptual distributed hydrologic simulations based on scaling representation of sub-daily rainfall variability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Han, Jing-Cheng; Huang, Guohe; Huang, Yuefei; Zhang, Hua; Li, Zhong; Chen, Qiuwen

2015-01-01

Lack of hydrologic process representation at the short time-scale would lead to inadequate simulations in distributed hydrological modeling. Especially for complex mountainous watersheds, surface runoff simulations are significantly affected by the overland flow generation, which is closely related to the rainfall characteristics at a sub-time step. In this paper, the sub-daily variability of rainfall intensity was considered using a probability distribution, and a chance-constrained overland flow modeling approach was proposed to capture the generation of overland flow within conceptual distributed hydrologic simulations. The integrated modeling procedures were further demonstrated through a watershed of China Three Gorges Reservoir area, leading to an improved SLURP-TGR hydrologic model based on SLURP. Combined with rainfall thresholds determined to distinguish various magnitudes of daily rainfall totals, three levels of significance were simultaneously employed to examine the hydrologic-response simulation. Results showed that SLURP-TGR could enhance the model performance, and the deviation of runoff simulations was effectively controlled. However, rainfall thresholds were so crucial for reflecting the scaling effect of rainfall intensity that optimal levels of significance and rainfall threshold were 0.05 and 10 mm, respectively. As for the Xiangxi River watershed, the main runoff contribution came from interflow of the fast store. Although slight differences of overland flow simulations between SLURP and SLURP-TGR were derived, SLURP-TGR was found to help improve the simulation of peak flows, and would improve the overall modeling efficiency through adjusting runoff component simulations. Consequently, the developed modeling approach favors efficient representation of hydrological processes and would be expected to have a potential for wide applications. - Highlights: • We develop an improved hydrologic model considering the scaling effect of rainfall. • A

Chance-constrained overland flow modeling for improving conceptual distributed hydrologic simulations based on scaling representation of sub-daily rainfall variability

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Han, Jing-Cheng [State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience & Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); Huang, Guohe, E-mail: huang@iseis.org [Institute for Energy, Environment and Sustainable Communities, University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan S4S 0A2 (Canada); Huang, Yuefei [State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience & Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); Zhang, Hua [College of Science and Engineering, Texas A& M University — Corpus Christi, Corpus Christi, TX 78412-5797 (United States); Li, Zhong [Institute for Energy, Environment and Sustainable Communities, University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan S4S 0A2 (Canada); Chen, Qiuwen [Center for Eco-Environmental Research, Nanjing Hydraulics Research Institute, Nanjing 210029 (China)

2015-08-15

Lack of hydrologic process representation at the short time-scale would lead to inadequate simulations in distributed hydrological modeling. Especially for complex mountainous watersheds, surface runoff simulations are significantly affected by the overland flow generation, which is closely related to the rainfall characteristics at a sub-time step. In this paper, the sub-daily variability of rainfall intensity was considered using a probability distribution, and a chance-constrained overland flow modeling approach was proposed to capture the generation of overland flow within conceptual distributed hydrologic simulations. The integrated modeling procedures were further demonstrated through a watershed of China Three Gorges Reservoir area, leading to an improved SLURP-TGR hydrologic model based on SLURP. Combined with rainfall thresholds determined to distinguish various magnitudes of daily rainfall totals, three levels of significance were simultaneously employed to examine the hydrologic-response simulation. Results showed that SLURP-TGR could enhance the model performance, and the deviation of runoff simulations was effectively controlled. However, rainfall thresholds were so crucial for reflecting the scaling effect of rainfall intensity that optimal levels of significance and rainfall threshold were 0.05 and 10 mm, respectively. As for the Xiangxi River watershed, the main runoff contribution came from interflow of the fast store. Although slight differences of overland flow simulations between SLURP and SLURP-TGR were derived, SLURP-TGR was found to help improve the simulation of peak flows, and would improve the overall modeling efficiency through adjusting runoff component simulations. Consequently, the developed modeling approach favors efficient representation of hydrological processes and would be expected to have a potential for wide applications. - Highlights: • We develop an improved hydrologic model considering the scaling effect of rainfall. • A

High flows in the 21st Century: analysis with a simple conceptual hydrological models using the input of 3 GCMs (A2 scenario)

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lanen, H.A.J.; Wanders, N.

2011-01-01

The study on high flows with a conceptual hydrological model leads to the following conclusions for about 1500 randomly selected land points across the world that have an intermediate soil water supply capacity and an intermediary responding groundwater system: · the probability distributions of

Towards a conceptual model of hydrological change on an abandoned cutover bog, Quebec

Science.gov (United States)

van Seters, Tim E.; Price, Jonathan S.

2002-07-01

Cutover bogs do not return to functional peatland ecosystems after abandonment because re-establishment of peat-forming mosses is poor. This paper presents a conceptual model of bog disturbance caused by peat harvesting (1942-1972), and the hydrological evolution that occurred after abandonment (1973-1998). Two adjacent bogs of similar size and origin, one harvested and the other essentially undisturbed, provide the basis for understanding what changes occurred. The model is based on historical trends evident from previous surveys of land-use, bog ecology and resource mapping; and from recent hydrological and ecological data that characterize the current condition. Water balance data and historical information suggest that runoff increased and evapotranspiration decreased following drainage, but tended towards pre-disturbance levels following abandonment, as vegetation recolonized the surface and drainage became less efficient over time. Dewatering of soil pores after drainage caused shrinkage and oxidation of the peat and surface subsidence of approximately 80 cm over 57 years. Comparisons with a nearby natural bog suggest that bulk density in the upper 50 cm of cutover peat increased from 0·07 to 0·13 g cm-3, specific yield declined from 0·14 to 0·07, water table fluctuations were 67% greater, and mean saturated hydraulic conductivity declined from 4·1 × 10-5 to 1·3 × 10-5 cm s-1. More than 25 years after abandonment, Sphagnum mosses were distributed over broad areas but covered less than 15% of the surface. Areas with good Sphagnum regeneration (>10% cover) were strongly correlated with high water tables (mean -22 cm), especially in zones of seasonal groundwater discharge, artefacts of the extraction history. Forest cover expanded from 5 to 20% of the study area following abandonment. The effect of forest growth (transpiration and interception) and drainage on lowering water levels eventually will be countered by slower water movement through the

Conceptual Modeling Framework for E-Area PA HELP Infiltration Model Simulations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dyer, J. A. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL)

2017-11-30

A conceptual modeling framework based on the proposed E-Area Low-Level Waste Facility (LLWF) closure cap design is presented for conducting Hydrologic Evaluation of Landfill Performance (HELP) model simulations of intact and subsided cap infiltration scenarios for the next E-Area Performance Assessment (PA).

Virtual experiments: a new approach for improving process conceptualization in hillslope hydrology

Science.gov (United States)

Weiler, Markus; McDonnell, Jeff

2004-01-01

We present an approach for process conceptualization in hillslope hydrology. We develop and implement a series of virtual experiments, whereby the interaction between water flow pathways, source and mixing at the hillslope scale is examined within a virtual experiment framework. We define these virtual experiments as 'numerical experiments with a model driven by collective field intelligence'. The virtual experiments explore the first-order controls in hillslope hydrology, where the experimentalist and modeler work together to cooperatively develop and analyze the results. Our hillslope model for the virtual experiments (HillVi) in this paper is based on conceptualizing the water balance within the saturated and unsaturated zone in relation to soil physical properties in a spatially explicit manner at the hillslope scale. We argue that a virtual experiment model needs to be able to capture all major controls on subsurface flow processes that the experimentalist might deem important, while at the same time being simple with few 'tunable parameters'. This combination makes the approach, and the dialog between experimentalist and modeler, a useful hypothesis testing tool. HillVi simulates mass flux for different initial conditions under the same flow conditions. We analyze our results in terms of an artificial line source and isotopic hydrograph separation of water and subsurface flow. Our results for this first set of virtual experiments showed how drainable porosity and soil depth variability exert a first order control on flow and transport at the hillslope scale. We found that high drainable porosity soils resulted in a restricted water table rise, resulting in more pronounced channeling of lateral subsurface flow along the soil-bedrock interface. This in turn resulted in a more anastomosing network of tracer movement across the slope. The virtual isotope hydrograph separation showed higher proportions of event water with increasing drainable porosity. When

Testing the Structure of Hydrological Models using Genetic Programming

Science.gov (United States)

Selle, B.; Muttil, N.

2009-04-01

Genetic Programming is able to systematically explore many alternative model structures of different complexity from available input and response data. We hypothesised that genetic programming can be used to test the structure hydrological models and to identify dominant processes in hydrological systems. To test this, genetic programming was used to analyse a data set from a lysimeter experiment in southeastern Australia. The lysimeter experiment was conducted to quantify the deep percolation response under surface irrigated pasture to different soil types, water table depths and water ponding times during surface irrigation. Using genetic programming, a simple model of deep percolation was consistently evolved in multiple model runs. This simple and interpretable model confirmed the dominant process contributing to deep percolation represented in a conceptual model that was published earlier. Thus, this study shows that genetic programming can be used to evaluate the structure of hydrological models and to gain insight about the dominant processes in hydrological systems.

A question driven socio-hydrological modeling process

Science.gov (United States)

Garcia, M.; Portney, K.; Islam, S.

2016-01-01

Human and hydrological systems are coupled: human activity impacts the hydrological cycle and hydrological conditions can, but do not always, trigger changes in human systems. Traditional modeling approaches with no feedback between hydrological and human systems typically cannot offer insight into how different patterns of natural variability or human-induced changes may propagate through this coupled system. Modeling of coupled human-hydrological systems, also called socio-hydrological systems, recognizes the potential for humans to transform hydrological systems and for hydrological conditions to influence human behavior. However, this coupling introduces new challenges and existing literature does not offer clear guidance regarding model conceptualization. There are no universally accepted laws of human behavior as there are for the physical systems; furthermore, a shared understanding of important processes within the field is often used to develop hydrological models, but there is no such consensus on the relevant processes in socio-hydrological systems. Here we present a question driven process to address these challenges. Such an approach allows modeling structure, scope and detail to remain contingent on and adaptive to the question context. We demonstrate the utility of this process by revisiting a classic question in water resources engineering on reservoir operation rules: what is the impact of reservoir operation policy on the reliability of water supply for a growing city? Our example model couples hydrological and human systems by linking the rate of demand decreases to the past reliability to compare standard operating policy (SOP) with hedging policy (HP). The model shows that reservoir storage acts both as a buffer for variability and as a delay triggering oscillations around a sustainable level of demand. HP reduces the threshold for action thereby decreasing the delay and the oscillation effect. As a result, per capita demand decreases during

Pursuing the method of multiple working hypotheses for hydrological modeling

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Clark, M.P.; Kavetski, D.; Fenicia, F.

2011-01-01

Ambiguities in the representation of environmental processes have manifested themselves in a plethora of hydrological models, differing in almost every aspect of their conceptualization and implementation. The current overabundance of models is symptomatic of an insufficient scientific understanding

Regime shifts under forcing of non-stationary attractors: Conceptual model and case studies in hydrologic systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Jeryang; Rao, P Suresh C

2014-11-15

We present here a conceptual model and analysis of complex systems using hypothetical cases of regime shifts resulting from temporal non-stationarity in attractor strengths, and then present selected published cases to illustrate such regime shifts in hydrologic systems (shallow aquatic ecosystems; water table shifts; soil salinization). Complex systems are dynamic and can exist in two or more stable states (or regimes). Temporal variations in state variables occur in response to fluctuations in external forcing, which are modulated by interactions among internal processes. Combined effects of external forcing and non-stationary strengths of alternative attractors can lead to shifts from original to alternate regimes. In systems with bi-stable states, when the strengths of two competing attractors are constant in time, or are non-stationary but change in a linear fashion, regime shifts are found to be temporally stationary and only controlled by the characteristics of the external forcing. However, when attractor strengths change in time non-linearly or vary stochastically, regime shifts in complex systems are characterized by non-stationary probability density functions (pdfs). We briefly discuss implications and challenges to prediction and management of hydrologic complex systems. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Integration of Local Hydrology into Regional Hydrologic Simulation Model

Science.gov (United States)

Van Zee, R. J.; Lal, W. A.

2002-05-01

South Florida hydrology is dominated by the Central and South Florida (C&SF) Project that is managed to provide flood protection, water supply and environmental protection. A complex network of levees canals and structures provide these services to the individual drainage basins. The landscape varies widely across the C&SF system, with corresponding differences in the way water is managed within each basin. Agricultural areas are managed for optimal crop production. Urban areas maximize flood protection while maintaining minimum water levels to protect adjacent wetlands and local water supplies. "Natural" areas flood and dry out in response to the temporal distribution of rainfall. The evaluation of planning, regulation and operational issues require access to a simulation model that captures the effects of both regional and local hydrology. The Regional Simulation Model (RSM) uses a "pseudo-cell" approach to integrate local hydrology within the context of a regional hydrologic system. A 2-dimensional triangulated mesh is used to represent the regional surface and ground water systems and a 1-dimensional canal network is superimposed onto this mesh. The movement of water is simulated using a finite volume formulation with a diffusive wave approximation. Each cell in the triangulated mesh has a "pseudo-cell" counterpart, which represents the same area as the cell, but it is conceptualized such that it simulates the localized hydrologic conditions Protocols have been established to provide an interface between a cell and its pseudo-cell counterpart. . A number of pseudo-cell types have already been developed and tested in the simulation of Water Conservation Area 1 and several have been proposed to deal with specific local issues in the Southwest Florida Feasibility Study. This presentation will provide an overview of the overall RSM design, describe the relationship between cells and pseudo-cells, and illustrate how pseudo-cells are be used to simulate agriculture

Testing the structure of a hydrological model using Genetic Programming

Science.gov (United States)

Selle, Benny; Muttil, Nitin

2011-01-01

SummaryGenetic Programming is able to systematically explore many alternative model structures of different complexity from available input and response data. We hypothesised that Genetic Programming can be used to test the structure of hydrological models and to identify dominant processes in hydrological systems. To test this, Genetic Programming was used to analyse a data set from a lysimeter experiment in southeastern Australia. The lysimeter experiment was conducted to quantify the deep percolation response under surface irrigated pasture to different soil types, watertable depths and water ponding times during surface irrigation. Using Genetic Programming, a simple model of deep percolation was recurrently evolved in multiple Genetic Programming runs. This simple and interpretable model supported the dominant process contributing to deep percolation represented in a conceptual model that was published earlier. Thus, this study shows that Genetic Programming can be used to evaluate the structure of hydrological models and to gain insight about the dominant processes in hydrological systems.

Conceptual geohydrological model of the separations area

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Root, R.W.; Marine, I.W.

1977-01-01

Subsurface drilling in and around the Separations Areas (F-Area and H-Area of the Savannah River Plant) is providing detailed information for a conceptual model of the geology and hydrology underlying these areas. This conceptual model will provide the framework needed for a mathematical model of groundwater movement beneath these areas. Existing information substantiates the presence of two areally extensive clay layers and several discontinuous clay and sandy-clay layers. These layers occur in and between beds of clayey and silty sand that make up most of the subsurface material. Within these sand beds are geologic units of differing hydraulic conductivity. For the present scale of the model, the subsurface information is considered adequate in H-Area, but additional drilling is planned in F-Area

HESS Opinions: A conceptual framework for assessing socio-hydrological resilience under change

Science.gov (United States)

Mao, Feng; Clark, Julian; Karpouzoglou, Timothy; Dewulf, Art; Buytaert, Wouter; Hannah, David

2017-07-01

Despite growing interest in resilience, there is still significant scope for increasing its conceptual clarity and practical relevance in socio-hydrological contexts: specifically, questions of how socio-hydrological systems respond to and cope with perturbations and how these connect to resilience remain unanswered. In this opinion paper, we propose a novel conceptual framework for understanding and assessing resilience in coupled socio-hydrological contexts, and encourage debate on the inter-connections between socio-hydrology and resilience. Taking a systems perspective, we argue that resilience is a set of systematic properties with three dimensions: absorptive, adaptive, and transformative, and contend that socio-hydrological systems can be viewed as various forms of human-water couplings, reflecting different aspects of these interactions. We propose a framework consisting of two parts. The first part addresses the identity of socio-hydrological resilience, answering questions such as resilience of what in relation to what. We identify three existing framings of resilience for different types of human-water systems and subsystems, which have been used in different fields: (1) the water subsystem, highlighting hydrological resilience to anthropogenic hazards; (2) the human subsystem, foregrounding social resilience to hydrological hazards; and (3) the coupled human-water system, exhibiting socio-hydrological resilience. We argue that these three system types and resiliences afford new insights into the clarification and evaluation of different water management challenges. The first two types address hydrological and social states, while the third type emphasises the feedbacks and interactions between human and water components within complex systems subject to internal or external disturbances. In the second part, we focus on resilience management and develop the notion of the resilience canvas, a novel heuristic device to identify possible pathways and to

On modeling complex interplay in small-scale self-organized socio-hydrological systems

Science.gov (United States)

Muneepeerakul, Rachata

2017-04-01

Successful and sustainable socio-hydrological systems, as in any coupled natural human-systems, require effective governance, which depends on the existence of proper infrastructure (both hard and soft). Recent work has addressed systems in which resource users and the organization responsible for maintaining the infrastructure are separate entities. However, many socio-hydrological systems, especially in developing countries, are small and without such formal division of labor; rather, such division of labor typically arises from self-organization within the population. In this work, we modify and mathematically operationalize a conceptual framework by developing a system of differential equations that capture the strategic behavior within such a self-organized population, its interplay with infrastructure characteristics and hydrological dynamics, and feedbacks between these elements. The model yields a number of insightful conditions related to long-term sustainability and collapse of the socio-hydrological system in the form of relationships between biophysical and social factors. These relationships encapsulate nonlinear interactions of these factors. The modeling framework is grounded in a solid conceptual foundation upon which additional modifications and realism can be built for potential reconciliation between socio-hydrology with other related fields and further applications.

Hydrological Process Simulation of Inland River Watershed: A Case Study of the Heihe River Basin with Multiple Hydrological Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lili Wang

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Simulating the hydrological processes of an inland river basin can help provide the scientific guidance to the policies of water allocation among different subbasins and water resource management groups within the subbasins. However, it is difficult to simulate the hydrological processes of an inland river basin with hydrological models due to the non-consistent hydrological characteristics of the entire basin. This study presents a solution to this problem with a case study about the hydrological process simulation in an inland river basin in China, Heihe River basin. It is divided into the upper, middle, and lower reaches based on the distinctive hydrological characteristics in the Heihe River basin, and three hydrological models are selected, applied, and tested to simulate the hydrological cycling processes for each reach. The upper reach is the contributing area with the complex runoff generation processes, therefore, the hydrological informatic modeling system (HIMS is utilized due to its combined runoff generation mechanisms. The middle reach has strong impacts of intensive human activities on the interactions of surface and subsurface flows, so a conceptual water balance model is applied to simulate the water balance process. For the lower reach, as the dissipative area with groundwater dominating the hydrological process, a groundwater modeling system with the embedment of MODFLOW model is applied to simulate the groundwater dynamics. Statistical parameters and water balance analysis prove that the three models have excellent performances in simulating the hydrological process of the three reaches. Therefore, it is an effective way to simulate the hydrological process of inland river basin with multiple hydrological models according to the characteristics of each subbasin.

Conceptual and Numerical Models for UZ Flow and Transport

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu, H.

2000-01-01

The purpose of this Analysis/Model Report (AMR) is to document the conceptual and numerical models used for modeling of unsaturated zone (UZ) fluid (water and air) flow and solute transport processes. This is in accordance with ''AMR Development Plan for U0030 Conceptual and Numerical Models for Unsaturated Zone (UZ) Flow and Transport Processes, Rev 00''. The conceptual and numerical modeling approaches described in this AMR are used for models of UZ flow and transport in fractured, unsaturated rock under ambient and thermal conditions, which are documented in separate AMRs. This AMR supports the UZ Flow and Transport Process Model Report (PMR), the Near Field Environment PMR, and the following models: Calibrated Properties Model; UZ Flow Models and Submodels; Mountain-Scale Coupled Processes Model; Thermal-Hydrologic-Chemical (THC) Seepage Model; Drift Scale Test (DST) THC Model; Seepage Model for Performance Assessment (PA); and UZ Radionuclide Transport Models

Approaches to modelling hydrology and ecosystem interactions

Science.gov (United States)

Silberstein, Richard P.

2014-05-01

As the pressures of industry, agriculture and mining on groundwater resources increase there is a burgeoning un-met need to be able to capture these multiple, direct and indirect stresses in a formal framework that will enable better assessment of impact scenarios. While there are many catchment hydrological models and there are some models that represent ecological states and change (e.g. FLAMES, Liedloff and Cook, 2007), these have not been linked in any deterministic or substantive way. Without such coupled eco-hydrological models quantitative assessments of impacts from water use intensification on water dependent ecosystems under changing climate are difficult, if not impossible. The concept would include facility for direct and indirect water related stresses that may develop around mining and well operations, climate stresses, such as rainfall and temperature, biological stresses, such as diseases and invasive species, and competition such as encroachment from other competing land uses. Indirect water impacts could be, for example, a change in groundwater conditions has an impact on stream flow regime, and hence aquatic ecosystems. This paper reviews previous work examining models combining ecology and hydrology with a view to developing a conceptual framework linking a biophysically defensable model that combines ecosystem function with hydrology. The objective is to develop a model capable of representing the cumulative impact of multiple stresses on water resources and associated ecosystem function.

Regionalising Parameters of a Conceptual Rainfall-Runoff Model for ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

IHACRES, a lumped conceptual rainfall-runoff model, was calibrated to six catchments ranging in size from 49km2 to 600 km2 within the upper Tana River basin to obtain a set of model parameters that characterise the hydrological behaviour within the region. Physical catchment attributes indexing topography, soil and ...

Integrated hydrological modelling of a managed coastal Mediterranean wetland (Rhone delta, France: initial calibration

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. Chauvelon

2003-01-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a model of a heavily managed coastal Mediterranean wetland. The hydrosystem studied , called ``Ile de Camargue', is the central part of the Rhone river delta. It comprises flat agricultural drainage basins, marshes, and shallow brackish lagoons whose connection to the sea is managed. This hydrosystem is subject to strong natural hydrological variability due to the combination of a Mediterranean climate and the artificial hydrological regime imposed by flooded rice cultivation. To quantify the hydrological balance at different spatial and temporal scales, a simplified model is developed — including the basin and the lagoons — using a time step that enables the temporal dynamic to be reproduced that is adapted to data availability. This modelling task takes into account the functioning of the natural and anthropogenic components of the hydrosystem. A conceptual approach is used for modelling drainage from the catchment, using a GIS to estimate water input for rice irrigation. The lagoon system is modelled using a two-dimensional finite element hydrodynamic model. Simulated results from the hydrodynamic model run under various hydro-climatic forcing conditions (water level, wind speed and direction, sea connection are used to calculate hydraulic exchanges between lagoon sub units considered as boxes. Finally, the HIC ('Hydrologie de l’Ile de Camargue' conceptual model is applied to simulate the water inputs and exchanges between the different units, together with the salt balance in the hydrosystem during a calibration period. Keywords: water management,conceptual hydrological model, hydrodynamic model, box model, GIS, Rhone delta, Camargue.

Assessment of a conceptual hydrological model and artificial neural networks for daily outflows forecasting

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rezaeianzadeh, M.; Stein, A.; Tabari, H.; Abghari, H.; Jalalkamali, N.; Hosseinipour, E.Z.; Singh, V.P.

2013-01-01

Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are used by hydrologists and engineers to forecast flows at the outlet of a watershed. They are employed in particular where hydrological data are limited. Despite these developments, practitioners still prefer conventional hydrological models. This study applied

Technical note: Representing glacier geometry changes in a semi-distributed hydrological model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Seibert

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Glaciers play an important role in high-mountain hydrology. While changing glacier areas are considered of highest importance for the understanding of future changes in runoff, glaciers are often only poorly represented in hydrological models. Most importantly, the direct coupling between the simulated glacier mass balances and changing glacier areas needs feasible solutions. The use of a complex glacier model is often not possible due to data and computational limitations. The Δh parameterization is a simple approach to consider the spatial variation of glacier thickness and area changes. Here, we describe a conceptual implementation of the Δh parameterization in the semi-distributed hydrological model HBV-light, which also allows for the representation of glacier advance phases and for comparison between the different versions of the implementation. The coupled glacio-hydrological simulation approach, which could also be implemented in many other semi-distributed hydrological models, is illustrated based on an example application.

Development of the Conceptual Models for Chemical Conditions and Hydrology Used in the 1996 Performance Assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

LARSON, KURT W.

2000-01-01

The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is a US Department of Energy (DOE) facility for the permanent disposal of defense-related transuranic (TRU) waste. US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regulations specify that the DOE must demonstrate on a sound basis that the WIPP disposal system will effectively contain long-lived alpha-emitting radionuclides within its boundaries for 10,000 years following closure. In 1996, the DOE submitted the ''40 CFR Part 191 Compliance Certification Application for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant'' (CCA) to the EPA. The CCA proposed that the WIPP site complies with EPA's regulatory requirements. Contained within the CCA are descriptions of the scientific research conducted to characterize the properties of the WIPP site and the probabilistic performance assessment (PA) conducted to predict the containment properties of the WIPP disposal system. In May 1998, the EPA certified that the TRU waste disposal at the WIPP complies with its regulations. Waste disposal operations at WIPP commenced on March 28, 1999. The 1996 WIPP PA model of the disposal system included conceptual and mathematical representations of key hydrologic and geochemical processes. These key processes were identified over a 22-year period involving data collection, data interpretation, computer models, and sensitivity studies to evaluate the importance of uncertainty and of processes that were difficult to evaluate by other means. Key developments in the area of geochemistry were the evaluation of gas generation mechanisms in the repository; development of a model of chemical conditions in the repository and actinide concentrations in brine; selecting MgO backfill and demonstrating its effects experimentally; and determining the chemical retardation capability of the Culebra. Key developments in the area of hydrology were evacuating the potential for groundwater to dissolve the Salado Formation (the repository host formation), development of a regional model for

Development of the conceptual models for chemical conditions and hydrology used in the 1996 performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Larson, K.W.

2000-01-01

The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is a US Department of Energy (DOE) facility for the permanent disposal of defense-related transuranic (TRU) waste. US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regulations specify that the DOE must demonstrate on a sound basis that the WIPP disposal system will effectively contain long-lived alpha-emitting radionuclides within its boundaries for 10,000 years following closure. In 1996, the DOE submitted the 40 CFR Part 191 Compliance Certification Application for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (CCA) to the EPA. The CCA proposed that the WIPP site complies with EPA's regulatory requirements. Contained within the CCA are descriptions of the scientific research conducted to characterize the properties of the WIPP site and the probabilistic performance assessment (PA) conducted to predict the containment properties of the WIPP disposal system. In May 1998, the EPA certified that the TRU waste disposal at the WIPP complies with its regulations. Waste disposal operations at WIPP commenced on 28 March 1999. The 1996 WIPP PA model of the disposal system included conceptual and mathematical representations of key hydrologic and geochemical processes. These key processes were identified over a 22-year period involving data collection, data interpretation, computer models, and sensitivity studies to evaluate the importance of uncertainty and of processes that were difficult to evaluate by other means. Key developments in the area of geochemistry were the evaluation of gas generation mechanisms in the repository; development of a model of chemical conditions in the repository and actinide concentrations in brine; selecting MgO backfill and demonstrating its effects experimentally; and, determining the chemical retardation capability of the Culebra. Key developments in the area of hydrology were evaluating the potential for groundwater to dissolve the Salado Formation (the repository host formation); development of a regional model for

A conceptual precipitation-runoff modeling suite: Model selection, calibration and predictive uncertainty assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Tyler Jon Smith

2008-01-01

In Montana and much of the Rocky Mountain West, the single most important parameter in forecasting the controls on regional water resources is snowpack. Despite the heightened importance of snowpack, few studies have considered the representation of uncertainty in coupled snowmelt/hydrologic conceptual models. Uncertainty estimation provides a direct interpretation of...

A coupled stochastic rainfall-evapotranspiration model for hydrological impact analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Pham, Minh Tu; Vernieuwe, Hilde; De Baets, Bernard; Verhoest, Niko E. C.

2018-02-01

A hydrological impact analysis concerns the study of the consequences of certain scenarios on one or more variables or fluxes in the hydrological cycle. In such an exercise, discharge is often considered, as floods originating from extremely high discharges often cause damage. Investigating the impact of extreme discharges generally requires long time series of precipitation and evapotranspiration to be used to force a rainfall-runoff model. However, such kinds of data may not be available and one should resort to stochastically generated time series, even though the impact of using such data on the overall discharge, and especially on the extreme discharge events, is not well studied. In this paper, stochastically generated rainfall and corresponding evapotranspiration time series, generated by means of vine copulas, are used to force a simple conceptual hydrological model. The results obtained are comparable to the modelled discharge using observed forcing data. Yet, uncertainties in the modelled discharge increase with an increasing number of stochastically generated time series used. Notwithstanding this finding, it can be concluded that using a coupled stochastic rainfall-evapotranspiration model has great potential for hydrological impact analysis.

Comparison of a Conceptual Groundwater Model and Physically Based Groundwater Mode

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, J.; Zammit, C.; Griffiths, J.; Moore, C.; Woods, R. A.

2017-12-01

Groundwater is a vital resource for human activities including agricultural practice and urban water demand. Hydrologic modelling is an important way to study groundwater recharge, movement and discharge, and its response to both human activity and climate change. To understand the groundwater hydrologic processes nationally in New Zealand, we have developed a conceptually based groundwater flow model, which is fully integrated into a national surface-water model (TopNet), and able to simulate groundwater recharge, movement, and interaction with surface water. To demonstrate the capability of this groundwater model (TopNet-GW), we applied the model to an irrigated area with water shortage and pollution problems in the upper Ruamahanga catchment in Great Wellington Region, New Zealand, and compared its performance with a physically-based groundwater model (MODFLOW). The comparison includes river flow at flow gauging sites, and interaction between groundwater and river. Results showed that the TopNet-GW produced similar flow and groundwater interaction patterns as the MODFLOW model, but took less computation time. This shows the conceptually-based groundwater model has the potential to simulate national groundwater process, and could be used as a surrogate for the more physically based model.

The influence of conceptual model uncertainty on management decisions for a groundwater-dependent ecosystem in karst

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gondwe, Bibi Ruth Neuman; Merediz-Alonso, Gonzalo; Bauer-Gottwein, Peter

2011-01-01

abstractions and pollution threatens the fresh water resource, and consequently the ecosystem integrity of both Sian Ka’an and the adjacent coastal environment. Seven different catchment-scale conceptual models were implemented in a distributed hydrological modelling approach. Equivalent porous medium...... to preserve water resources and maintain ecosystem services. Multiple Model Simulation highlights the impact of model structure uncertainty on management decisions using several plausible conceptual models. Multiple Model Simulation was used for this purpose on the Yucatan Peninsula, which is one of the world......Groundwater management in karst is often based on limited hydrologic understanding of the aquifer. The geologic heterogeneities controlling the water flow are often insufficiently mapped. As karst aquifers are very vulnerable to pollution, groundwater protection and land use management are crucial...

The transferability of hydrological models under nonstationary climatic conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. Z. Li

2012-04-01

Full Text Available This paper investigates issues involved in calibrating hydrological models against observed data when the aim of the modelling is to predict future runoff under different climatic conditions. To achieve this objective, we tested two hydrological models, DWBM and SIMHYD, using data from 30 unimpaired catchments in Australia which had at least 60 yr of daily precipitation, potential evapotranspiration (PET, and streamflow data. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE, modified index of agreement (d₁ and water balance error (WBE were used as performance criteria. We used a differential split-sample test to split up the data into 120 sub-periods and 4 different climatic sub-periods in order to assess how well the calibrated model could be transferred different periods. For each catchment, the models were calibrated for one sub-period and validated on the other three. Monte Carlo simulation was used to explore parameter stability compared to historic climatic variability. The chi-square test was used to measure the relationship between the distribution of the parameters and hydroclimatic variability. The results showed that the performance of the two hydrological models differed and depended on the model calibration. We found that if a hydrological model is set up to simulate runoff for a wet climate scenario then it should be calibrated on a wet segment of the historic record, and similarly a dry segment should be used for a dry climate scenario. The Monte Carlo simulation provides an effective and pragmatic approach to explore uncertainty and equifinality in hydrological model parameters. Some parameters of the hydrological models are shown to be significantly more sensitive to the choice of calibration periods. Our findings support the idea that when using conceptual hydrological models to assess future climate change impacts, a differential split-sample test and Monte Carlo simulation should be used to quantify uncertainties due to

Development and comparison of Bayesian modularization method in uncertainty assessment of hydrological models

Science.gov (United States)

Li, L.; Xu, C.-Y.; Engeland, K.

2012-04-01

With respect to model calibration, parameter estimation and analysis of uncertainty sources, different approaches have been used in hydrological models. Bayesian method is one of the most widely used methods for uncertainty assessment of hydrological models, which incorporates different sources of information into a single analysis through Bayesian theorem. However, none of these applications can well treat the uncertainty in extreme flows of hydrological models' simulations. This study proposes a Bayesian modularization method approach in uncertainty assessment of conceptual hydrological models by considering the extreme flows. It includes a comprehensive comparison and evaluation of uncertainty assessments by a new Bayesian modularization method approach and traditional Bayesian models using the Metropolis Hasting (MH) algorithm with the daily hydrological model WASMOD. Three likelihood functions are used in combination with traditional Bayesian: the AR (1) plus Normal and time period independent model (Model 1), the AR (1) plus Normal and time period dependent model (Model 2) and the AR (1) plus multi-normal model (Model 3). The results reveal that (1) the simulations derived from Bayesian modularization method are more accurate with the highest Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency value, and (2) the Bayesian modularization method performs best in uncertainty estimates of entire flows and in terms of the application and computational efficiency. The study thus introduces a new approach for reducing the extreme flow's effect on the discharge uncertainty assessment of hydrological models via Bayesian. Keywords: extreme flow, uncertainty assessment, Bayesian modularization, hydrological model, WASMOD

Parameterization of a Hydrological Model for a Large, Ungauged Urban Catchment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gerald Krebs

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Urbanization leads to the replacement of natural areas by impervious surfaces and affects the catchment hydrological cycle with adverse environmental impacts. Low impact development tools (LID that mimic hydrological processes of natural areas have been developed and applied to mitigate these impacts. Hydrological simulations are one possibility to evaluate the LID performance but the associated small-scale processes require a highly spatially distributed and explicit modeling approach. However, detailed data for model development are often not available for large urban areas, hampering the model parameterization. In this paper we propose a methodology to parameterize a hydrological model to a large, ungauged urban area by maintaining at the same time a detailed surface discretization for direct parameter manipulation for LID simulation and a firm reliance on available data for model conceptualization. Catchment delineation was based on a high-resolution digital elevation model (DEM and model parameterization relied on a novel model regionalization approach. The impact of automated delineation and model regionalization on simulation results was evaluated for three monitored study catchments (5.87–12.59 ha. The simulated runoff peak was most sensitive to accurate catchment discretization and calibration, while both the runoff volume and the fit of the hydrograph were less affected.

Development and evaluation of a watershed-scale hybrid hydrologic model

OpenAIRE

Cho, Younghyun

2016-01-01

A watershed-scale hybrid hydrologic model (Distributed-Clark), which is a lumped conceptual and distributed feature model, was developed to predict spatially distributed short- and long-term rainfall runoff generation and routing using relatively simple methodologies and state-of-the-art spatial data in a GIS environment. In Distributed-Clark, spatially distributed excess rainfall estimated with the SCS curve number method and a GIS-based set of separated unit hydrographs (spatially distribut...

A prototype framework for models of socio-hydrology: identification of key feedback loops and parameterisation approach

Science.gov (United States)

Elshafei, Y.; Sivapalan, M.; Tonts, M.; Hipsey, M. R.

2014-06-01

It is increasingly acknowledged that, in order to sustainably manage global freshwater resources, it is critical that we better understand the nature of human-hydrology interactions at the broader catchment system scale. Yet to date, a generic conceptual framework for building models of catchment systems that include adequate representation of socioeconomic systems - and the dynamic feedbacks between human and natural systems - has remained elusive. In an attempt to work towards such a model, this paper outlines a generic framework for models of socio-hydrology applicable to agricultural catchments, made up of six key components that combine to form the coupled system dynamics: namely, catchment hydrology, population, economics, environment, socioeconomic sensitivity and collective response. The conceptual framework posits two novel constructs: (i) a composite socioeconomic driving variable, termed the Community Sensitivity state variable, which seeks to capture the perceived level of threat to a community's quality of life, and acts as a key link tying together one of the fundamental feedback loops of the coupled system, and (ii) a Behavioural Response variable as the observable feedback mechanism, which reflects land and water management decisions relevant to the hydrological context. The framework makes a further contribution through the introduction of three macro-scale parameters that enable it to normalise for differences in climate, socioeconomic and political gradients across study sites. In this way, the framework provides for both macro-scale contextual parameters, which allow for comparative studies to be undertaken, and catchment-specific conditions, by way of tailored "closure relationships", in order to ensure that site-specific and application-specific contexts of socio-hydrologic problems can be accommodated. To demonstrate how such a framework would be applied, two socio-hydrological case studies, taken from the Australian experience, are presented

Upscaling Empirically Based Conceptualisations to Model Tropical Dominant Hydrological Processes for Historical Land Use Change

Science.gov (United States)

Toohey, R.; Boll, J.; Brooks, E.; Jones, J.

2009-12-01

Surface runoff and percolation to ground water are two hydrological processes of concern to the Atlantic slope of Costa Rica because of their impacts on flooding and drinking water contamination. As per legislation, the Costa Rican Government funds land use management from the farm to the regional scale to improve or conserve hydrological ecosystem services. In this study, we examined how land use (e.g., forest, coffee, sugar cane, and pasture) affects hydrological response at the point, plot (1 m2), and the field scale (1-6ha) to empirically conceptualize the dominant hydrological processes in each land use. Using our field data, we upscaled these conceptual processes into a physically-based distributed hydrological model at the field, watershed (130 km2), and regional (1500 km2) scales. At the point and plot scales, the presence of macropores and large roots promoted greater vertical percolation and subsurface connectivity in the forest and coffee field sites. The lack of macropores and large roots, plus the addition of management artifacts (e.g., surface compaction and a plough layer), altered the dominant hydrological processes by increasing lateral flow and surface runoff in the pasture and sugar cane field sites. Macropores and topography were major influences on runoff generation at the field scale. Also at the field scale, antecedent moisture conditions suggest a threshold behavior as a temporal control on surface runoff generation. However, in this tropical climate with very intense rainstorms, annual surface runoff was less than 10% of annual precipitation at the field scale. Significant differences in soil and hydrological characteristics observed at the point and plot scales appear to have less significance when upscaled to the field scale. At the point and plot scales, percolation acted as the dominant hydrological process in this tropical environment. However, at the field scale for sugar cane and pasture sites, saturation-excess runoff increased as

DUAL STATE-PARAMETER UPDATING SCHEME ON A CONCEPTUAL HYDROLOGIC MODEL USING SEQUENTIAL MONTE CARLO FILTERS

Science.gov (United States)

Noh, Seong Jin; Tachikawa, Yasuto; Shiiba, Michiharu; Kim, Sunmin

Applications of data assimilation techniques have been widely used to improve upon the predictability of hydrologic modeling. Among various data assimilation techniques, sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) filters, known as "particle filters" provide the capability to handle non-linear and non-Gaussian state-space models. This paper proposes a dual state-parameter updating scheme (DUS) based on SMC methods to estimate both state and parameter variables of a hydrologic model. We introduce a kernel smoothing method for the robust estimation of uncertain model parameters in the DUS. The applicability of the dual updating scheme is illustrated using the implementation of the storage function model on a middle-sized Japanese catchment. We also compare performance results of DUS combined with various SMC methods, such as SIR, ASIR and RPF.

Corruption of accuracy and efficiency of Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation by inaccurate numerical implementation of conceptual hydrologic models

Science.gov (United States)

Schoups, G.; Vrugt, J. A.; Fenicia, F.; van de Giesen, N. C.

2010-10-01

Conceptual rainfall-runoff models have traditionally been applied without paying much attention to numerical errors induced by temporal integration of water balance dynamics. Reliance on first-order, explicit, fixed-step integration methods leads to computationally cheap simulation models that are easy to implement. Computational speed is especially desirable for estimating parameter and predictive uncertainty using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. Confirming earlier work of Kavetski et al. (2003), we show here that the computational speed of first-order, explicit, fixed-step integration methods comes at a cost: for a case study with a spatially lumped conceptual rainfall-runoff model, it introduces artificial bimodality in the marginal posterior parameter distributions, which is not present in numerically accurate implementations of the same model. The resulting effects on MCMC simulation include (1) inconsistent estimates of posterior parameter and predictive distributions, (2) poor performance and slow convergence of the MCMC algorithm, and (3) unreliable convergence diagnosis using the Gelman-Rubin statistic. We studied several alternative numerical implementations to remedy these problems, including various adaptive-step finite difference schemes and an operator splitting method. Our results show that adaptive-step, second-order methods, based on either explicit finite differencing or operator splitting with analytical integration, provide the best alternative for accurate and efficient MCMC simulation. Fixed-step or adaptive-step implicit methods may also be used for increased accuracy, but they cannot match the efficiency of adaptive-step explicit finite differencing or operator splitting. Of the latter two, explicit finite differencing is more generally applicable and is preferred if the individual hydrologic flux laws cannot be integrated analytically, as the splitting method then loses its advantage.

From spatially variable streamflow to distributed hydrological models: Analysis of key modeling decisions

Science.gov (United States)

Fenicia, Fabrizio; Kavetski, Dmitri; Savenije, Hubert H. G.; Pfister, Laurent

2016-02-01

This paper explores the development and application of distributed hydrological models, focusing on the key decisions of how to discretize the landscape, which model structures to use in each landscape element, and how to link model parameters across multiple landscape elements. The case study considers the Attert catchment in Luxembourg—a 300 km2 mesoscale catchment with 10 nested subcatchments that exhibit clearly different streamflow dynamics. The research questions are investigated using conceptual models applied at hydrologic response unit (HRU) scales (1-4 HRUs) on 6 hourly time steps. Multiple model structures are hypothesized and implemented using the SUPERFLEX framework. Following calibration, space/time model transferability is tested using a split-sample approach, with evaluation criteria including streamflow prediction error metrics and hydrological signatures. Our results suggest that: (1) models using geology-based HRUs are more robust and capture the spatial variability of streamflow time series and signatures better than models using topography-based HRUs; this finding supports the hypothesis that, in the Attert, geology exerts a stronger control than topography on streamflow generation, (2) streamflow dynamics of different HRUs can be represented using distinct and remarkably simple model structures, which can be interpreted in terms of the perceived dominant hydrologic processes in each geology type, and (3) the same maximum root zone storage can be used across the three dominant geological units with no loss in model transferability; this finding suggests that the partitioning of water between streamflow and evaporation in the study area is largely independent of geology and can be used to improve model parsimony. The modeling methodology introduced in this study is general and can be used to advance our broader understanding and prediction of hydrological behavior, including the landscape characteristics that control hydrologic response, the

Maximum entropy production: Can it be used to constrain conceptual hydrological models?

Science.gov (United States)

M.C. Westhoff; E. Zehe

2013-01-01

In recent years, optimality principles have been proposed to constrain hydrological models. The principle of maximum entropy production (MEP) is one of the proposed principles and is subject of this study. It states that a steady state system is organized in such a way that entropy production is maximized. Although successful applications have been reported in...

Predicting Phosphorus Dynamics Across Physiographic Regions Using a Mixed Hortonian Non-Hortonian Hydrology Model

Science.gov (United States)

Collick, A.; Easton, Z. M.; Auerbach, D.; Buchanan, B.; Kleinman, P. J. A.; Fuka, D.

2017-12-01

Predicting phosphorus (P) loss from agricultural watersheds depends on accurate representation of the hydrological and chemical processes governing P mobility and transport. In complex landscapes, P predictions are complicated by a broad range of soils with and without restrictive layers, a wide variety of agricultural management, and variable hydrological drivers. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a watershed model commonly used to predict runoff and non-point source pollution transport, but is commonly only used with Hortonian (traditional SWAT) or non-Hortonian (SWAT-VSA) initializations. Many shallow soils underlain by a restricting layer commonly generate saturation excess runoff from variable source areas (VSA), which is well represented in a re-conceptualized version, SWAT-VSA. However, many watersheds exhibit traits of both infiltration excess and saturation excess hydrology internally, based on the hydrologic distance from the stream, distribution of soils across the landscape, and characteristics of restricting layers. The objective of this research is to provide an initial look at integrating distributed predictive capabilities that consider both Hortonian and Non-Hortonian solutions simultaneously within a single SWAT-VSA initialization. We compare results from all three conceptual watershed initializations against measured surface runoff and stream P loads and to highlight the model's ability to drive sub-field management of P. All three initializations predict discharge similarly well (daily Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiencies above 0.5), but the new conceptual SWAT-VSA initialization performed best in predicting P export from the watershed, while also identifying critical source areas - those areas generating large runoff and P losses at the sub field level. These results support the use of mixed Hortonian non-Hortonian SWAT-VSA initializations in predicting watershed-scale P losses and identifying critical source areas of P loss in landscapes

Modeling post-wildfire hydrological processes with ParFlow

Science.gov (United States)

Escobar, I. S.; Lopez, S. R.; Kinoshita, A. M.

2017-12-01

Wildfires alter the natural processes within a watershed, such as surface runoff, evapotranspiration rates, and subsurface water storage. Post-fire hydrologic models are typically one-dimensional, empirically-based models or two-dimensional, conceptually-based models with lumped parameter distributions. These models are useful for modeling and predictions at the watershed outlet; however, do not provide detailed, distributed hydrologic processes at the point scale within the watershed. This research uses ParFlow, a three-dimensional, distributed hydrologic model to simulate post-fire hydrologic processes by representing the spatial and temporal variability of soil burn severity (via hydrophobicity) and vegetation recovery. Using this approach, we are able to evaluate the change in post-fire water components (surface flow, lateral flow, baseflow, and evapotranspiration). This work builds upon previous field and remote sensing analysis conducted for the 2003 Old Fire Burn in Devil Canyon, located in southern California (USA). This model is initially developed for a hillslope defined by a 500 m by 1000 m lateral extent. The subsurface reaches 12.4 m and is assigned a variable cell thickness to explicitly consider soil burn severity throughout the stages of recovery and vegetation regrowth. We consider four slope and eight hydrophobic layer configurations. Evapotranspiration is used as a proxy for vegetation regrowth and is represented by the satellite-based Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBOP) product. The pre- and post-fire surface runoff, subsurface storage, and surface storage interactions are evaluated at the point scale. Results will be used as a basis for developing and fine-tuning a watershed-scale model. Long-term simulations will advance our understanding of post-fire hydrological partitioning between water balance components and the spatial variability of watershed processes, providing improved guidance for post-fire watershed management. In reference

Bayesian analysis of data and model error in rainfall-runoff hydrological models

Science.gov (United States)

Kavetski, D.; Franks, S. W.; Kuczera, G.

2004-12-01

A major unresolved issue in the identification and use of conceptual hydrologic models is realistic description of uncertainty in the data and model structure. In particular, hydrologic parameters often cannot be measured directly and must be inferred (calibrated) from observed forcing/response data (typically, rainfall and runoff). However, rainfall varies significantly in space and time, yet is often estimated from sparse gauge networks. Recent work showed that current calibration methods (e.g., standard least squares, multi-objective calibration, generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation) ignore forcing uncertainty and assume that the rainfall is known exactly. Consequently, they can yield strongly biased and misleading parameter estimates. This deficiency confounds attempts to reliably test model hypotheses, to generalize results across catchments (the regionalization problem) and to quantify predictive uncertainty when the hydrologic model is extrapolated. This paper continues the development of a Bayesian total error analysis (BATEA) methodology for the calibration and identification of hydrologic models, which explicitly incorporates the uncertainty in both the forcing and response data, and allows systematic model comparison based on residual model errors and formal Bayesian hypothesis testing (e.g., using Bayes factors). BATEA is based on explicit stochastic models for both forcing and response uncertainty, whereas current techniques focus solely on response errors. Hence, unlike existing methods, the BATEA parameter equations directly reflect the modeler's confidence in all the data. We compare several approaches to approximating the parameter distributions: a) full Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods and b) simplified approaches based on linear approximations. Studies using synthetic and real data from the US and Australia show that BATEA systematically reduces the parameter bias, leads to more meaningful model fits and allows model comparison taking

Robust estimation of hydrological model parameters

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Bárdossy

2008-11-01

Full Text Available The estimation of hydrological model parameters is a challenging task. With increasing capacity of computational power several complex optimization algorithms have emerged, but none of the algorithms gives a unique and very best parameter vector. The parameters of fitted hydrological models depend upon the input data. The quality of input data cannot be assured as there may be measurement errors for both input and state variables. In this study a methodology has been developed to find a set of robust parameter vectors for a hydrological model. To see the effect of observational error on parameters, stochastically generated synthetic measurement errors were applied to observed discharge and temperature data. With this modified data, the model was calibrated and the effect of measurement errors on parameters was analysed. It was found that the measurement errors have a significant effect on the best performing parameter vector. The erroneous data led to very different optimal parameter vectors. To overcome this problem and to find a set of robust parameter vectors, a geometrical approach based on Tukey's half space depth was used. The depth of the set of N randomly generated parameters was calculated with respect to the set with the best model performance (Nash-Sutclife efficiency was used for this study for each parameter vector. Based on the depth of parameter vectors, one can find a set of robust parameter vectors. The results show that the parameters chosen according to the above criteria have low sensitivity and perform well when transfered to a different time period. The method is demonstrated on the upper Neckar catchment in Germany. The conceptual HBV model was used for this study.

Simulating Complex, Cold-region Process Interactions Using a Multi-scale, Variable-complexity Hydrological Model

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Marsh, C.; Pomeroy, J. W.; Wheater, H. S.

2017-12-01

Accurate management of water resources is necessary for social, economic, and environmental sustainability worldwide. In locations with seasonal snowcovers, the accurate prediction of these water resources is further complicated due to frozen soils, solid-phase precipitation, blowing snow transport, and snowcover-vegetation-atmosphere interactions. Complex process interactions and feedbacks are a key feature of hydrological systems and may result in emergent phenomena, i.e., the arising of novel and unexpected properties within a complex system. One example is the feedback associated with blowing snow redistribution, which can lead to drifts that cause locally-increased soil moisture, thus increasing plant growth that in turn subsequently impacts snow redistribution, creating larger drifts. Attempting to simulate these emergent behaviours is a significant challenge, however, and there is concern that process conceptualizations within current models are too incomplete to represent the needed interactions. An improved understanding of the role of emergence in hydrological systems often requires high resolution distributed numerical hydrological models that incorporate the relevant process dynamics. The Canadian Hydrological Model (CHM) provides a novel tool for examining cold region hydrological systems. Key features include efficient terrain representation, allowing simulations at various spatial scales, reduced computational overhead, and a modular process representation allowing for an alternative-hypothesis framework. Using both physics-based and conceptual process representations sourced from long term process studies and the current cold regions literature allows for comparison of process representations and importantly, their ability to produce emergent behaviours. Examining the system in a holistic, process-based manner can hopefully derive important insights and aid in development of improved process representations.

Moving university hydrology education forward with community-based geoinformatics, data and modeling resources

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V. Merwade

2012-08-01

Full Text Available In this opinion paper, we review recent literature related to data and modeling driven instruction in hydrology, and present our findings from surveying the hydrology education community in the United States. This paper presents an argument that that data and modeling driven geoscience cybereducation (DMDGC approaches are essential for teaching the conceptual and applied aspects of hydrology, as a part of the broader effort to improve science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM education at the university level. The authors have undertaken a series of surveys and a workshop involving university hydrology educators to determine the state of the practice of DMDGC approaches to hydrology. We identify the most common tools and approaches currently utilized, quantify the extent of the adoption of DMDGC approaches in the university hydrology classroom, and explain the community's views on the challenges and barriers preventing DMDGC approaches from wider use. DMDGC approaches are currently emphasized at the graduate level of the curriculum, and only the most basic modeling and visualization tools are in widespread use. The community identifies the greatest barriers to greater adoption as a lack of access to easily adoptable curriculum materials and a lack of time and training to learn constantly changing tools and methods. The community's current consensus is that DMDGC approaches should emphasize conceptual learning, and should be used to complement rather than replace lecture-based pedagogies. Inadequate online material publication and sharing systems, and a lack of incentives for faculty to develop and publish materials via such systems, is also identified as a challenge. Based on these findings, we suggest that a number of steps should be taken by the community to develop the potential of DMDGC in university hydrology education, including formal development and assessment of curriculum materials, integrating lecture-format and DMDGC

Integrating remote sensing, geographic information systems and global positioning system techniques with hydrological modeling

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Thakur, Jay Krishna; Singh, Sudhir Kumar; Ekanthalu, Vicky Shettigondahalli

2017-07-01

Integration of remote sensing (RS), geographic information systems (GIS) and global positioning system (GPS) are emerging research areas in the field of groundwater hydrology, resource management, environmental monitoring and during emergency response. Recent advancements in the fields of RS, GIS, GPS and higher level of computation will help in providing and handling a range of data simultaneously in a time- and cost-efficient manner. This review paper deals with hydrological modeling, uses of remote sensing and GIS in hydrological modeling, models of integrations and their need and in last the conclusion. After dealing with these issues conceptually and technically, we can develop better methods and novel approaches to handle large data sets and in a better way to communicate information related with rapidly decreasing societal resources, i.e. groundwater.

Debates—Perspectives on socio-hydrology: Modeling flood risk as a public policy problem

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Gober, Patricia; Wheater, Howard S.

2015-06-01

Socio-hydrology views human activities as endogenous to water system dynamics; it is the interaction between human and biophysical processes that threatens the viability of current water systems through positive feedbacks and unintended consequences. Di Baldassarre et al. implement socio-hydrology as a flood risk problem using the concept of social memory as a vehicle to link human perceptions to flood damage. Their mathematical model has heuristic value in comparing potential flood damages in green versus technological societies. It can also support communities in exploring the potential consequences of policy decisions and evaluating critical policy tradeoffs, for example, between flood protection and economic development. The concept of social memory does not, however, adequately capture the social processes whereby public perceptions are translated into policy action, including the pivotal role played by the media in intensifying or attenuating perceived flood risk, the success of policy entrepreneurs in keeping flood hazard on the public agenda during short windows of opportunity for policy action, and different societal approaches to managing flood risk that derive from cultural values and economic interests. We endorse the value of seeking to capture these dynamics in a simplified conceptual framework, but favor a broader conceptualization of socio-hydrology that includes a knowledge exchange component, including the way modeling insights and scientific results are communicated to floodplain managers. The social processes used to disseminate the products of socio-hydrological research are as important as the research results themselves in determining whether modeling is used for real-world decision making.

Precipitation-centered Conceptual Model for Sub-humid Uplands in Lampasas Cut Plains, TX

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Potter, S. R.; Tu, M.; Wilcox, B. P.

2011-12-01

Conceptual understandings of dominant hydrological processes, system interactions and feedbacks, and external forcings operating within catchments often defy simple definition and explanation, especially catchments encompassing transition zones, degraded landscapes, rapid development, and where climate forcings exhibit large variations across time and space. However, it is precisely those areas for which understanding and knowledge are most needed to innovate sustainable management strategies and counter past management blunders and failed restoration efforts. The cut plain of central Texas is one such area. Complex geographic and climatic factors lead to spatially and temporally variable precipitation having frequent dry periods interrupted by intense high-volume precipitation. Fort Hood, an army post located in the southeast cut plain contains landscapes ranging from highly degraded to nearly pristine with a topography mainly comprised of flat-topped mesas separated by broad u-shaped valleys. To understand the hydrology of the area and responses to wet-dry cycles we analyzed 4-years of streamflow and rainfall from 8 catchments, sized between 1819 and 16,000 ha. Since aquifer recharge/discharge and surface stream-groundwater interactions are unimportant, we hypothesized a simple conceptual model driven by precipitation and radiative forcings and having stormflow, baseflow, ET, and two hypothetical storage components. The key storage component was conceptualized as a buffer that was highly integrated with the ET component and exerted controls on baseflow. Radiative energy controlled flux from the buffer to ET. We used the conceptual model in making a bimonthly hydrologic budget, which included buffer volumes and a deficit-surplus indicator. Through the analysis, we were led to speculate that buffer capacity plays key roles in these landscapes and even relatively minor changes in capacity, due to soil compaction for example, might lead to ecological shifts. The

Does model performance improve with complexity? A case study with three hydrological models

Science.gov (United States)

Orth, Rene; Staudinger, Maria; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Seibert, Jan; Zappa, Massimiliano

2015-04-01

In recent decades considerable progress has been made in climate model development. Following the massive increase in computational power, models became more sophisticated. At the same time also simple conceptual models have advanced. In this study we validate and compare three hydrological models of different complexity to investigate whether their performance varies accordingly. For this purpose we use runoff and also soil moisture measurements, which allow a truly independent validation, from several sites across Switzerland. The models are calibrated in similar ways with the same runoff data. Our results show that the more complex models HBV and PREVAH outperform the simple water balance model (SWBM) in case of runoff but not for soil moisture. Furthermore the most sophisticated PREVAH model shows an added value compared to the HBV model only in case of soil moisture. Focusing on extreme events we find generally improved performance of the SWBM during drought conditions and degraded agreement with observations during wet extremes. For the more complex models we find the opposite behavior, probably because they were primarily developed for prediction of runoff extremes. As expected given their complexity, HBV and PREVAH have more problems with over-fitting. All models show a tendency towards better performance in lower altitudes as opposed to (pre-) alpine sites. The results vary considerably across the investigated sites. In contrast, the different metrics we consider to estimate the agreement between models and observations lead to similar conclusions, indicating that the performance of the considered models is similar at different time scales as well as for anomalies and long-term means. We conclude that added complexity does not necessarily lead to improved performance of hydrological models, and that performance can vary greatly depending on the considered hydrological variable (e.g. runoff vs. soil moisture) or hydrological conditions (floods vs. droughts).

Ensemble catchment hydrological modelling for climate change impact analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Vansteenkiste, Thomas; Ntegeka, Victor; Willems, Patrick

2014-05-01

It is vital to investigate how the hydrological model structure affects the climate change impact given that future changes not in the range for which the models were calibrated or validated are likely. Thus an ensemble modelling approach which involves a diversity of models with different structures such as spatial resolutions and process descriptions is crucial. The ensemble modelling approach was applied to a set of models: from the lumped conceptual models NAM, PDM and VHM, an intermediate detailed and distributed model WetSpa, to the highly detailed and fully distributed model MIKE-SHE. Explicit focus was given to the high and low flow extremes. All models were calibrated for sub flows and quick flows derived from rainfall and potential evapotranspiration (ETo) time series. In general, all models were able to produce reliable estimates of the flow regimes under the current climate for extreme peak and low flows. An intercomparison of the low and high flow changes under changed climatic conditions was made using climate scenarios tailored for extremes. Tailoring was important for two reasons. First, since the use of many scenarios was not feasible it was necessary to construct few scenarios that would reasonably represent the range of extreme impacts. Second, scenarios would be more informative as changes in high and low flows would be easily traced to changes of ETo and rainfall; the tailored scenarios are constructed using seasonal changes that are defined using different levels of magnitude (high, mean and low) for rainfall and ETo. After simulation of these climate scenarios in the five hydrological models, close agreement was found among the models. The different models predicted similar range of peak flow changes. For the low flows, however, the differences in the projected impact range by different hydrological models was larger, particularly for the drier scenarios. This suggests that the hydrological model structure is critical in low flow predictions

Virtual hydrology observatory: an immersive visualization of hydrology modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Su, Simon; Cruz-Neira, Carolina; Habib, Emad; Gerndt, Andreas

2009-02-01

The Virtual Hydrology Observatory will provide students with the ability to observe the integrated hydrology simulation with an instructional interface by using a desktop based or immersive virtual reality setup. It is the goal of the virtual hydrology observatory application to facilitate the introduction of field experience and observational skills into hydrology courses through innovative virtual techniques that mimic activities during actual field visits. The simulation part of the application is developed from the integrated atmospheric forecast model: Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF), and the hydrology model: Gridded Surface/Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA). Both the output from WRF and GSSHA models are then used to generate the final visualization components of the Virtual Hydrology Observatory. The various visualization data processing techniques provided by VTK are 2D Delaunay triangulation and data optimization. Once all the visualization components are generated, they are integrated into the simulation data using VRFlowVis and VR Juggler software toolkit. VR Juggler is used primarily to provide the Virtual Hydrology Observatory application with fully immersive and real time 3D interaction experience; while VRFlowVis provides the integration framework for the hydrologic simulation data, graphical objects and user interaction. A six-sided CAVETM like system is used to run the Virtual Hydrology Observatory to provide the students with a fully immersive experience.

Urban Hydrology and Water Quality Modeling - Resolution Modeling Comparison for Water Quantity and Quality

Science.gov (United States)

Fry, T. J.; Maxwell, R. M.

2014-12-01

Urbanization presents challenging water resource problems for communities worldwide. The hydromodifications associated with urbanization results in increased runoff rates and volumes and increased peak flows. These hydrologic changes can lead to increased erosion and stream destabilization, decreased evapotranspiration, decreased ground water recharge, increases in pollutant loading, and localized anthropogenic climate change or Urban Heat Islands. Stormwater represents a complex and dynamic component of the urban water cycle that requires careful mitigation. With the implementation of Phase II rules under the CWA, stormwater management is shifting from a drainage-efficiency focus to a natural systems focus. The natural system focus, referred to as Low Impact Development (LID), or Green Infrastructure, uses best management practices (BMPs) to reduce the impacts caused by urbanization hydromodification. Large-scale patterns of stormwater runoff from urban environments are complex and it is unclear what the large-scale impacts of green infrastructure are on the water cycle. High resolution physically based hydrologic models can be used to more accurately simulate the urban hydrologic cycle. These types of models tend to be more dynamic and allow for greater flexibility in evaluating and accounting for various hydrologic processes in the urban environment that may be lost with lower resolution conceptual models. We propose to evaluate the effectiveness of high resolution models to accurately represent and determine the urban hydrologic cycle with the overall goal of being able to accurately assess the impacts of LID BMPs in urban environments. We propose to complete a rigorous model intercomparison between ParFlow and FLO-2D. Both of these models can be scaled to higher resolutions, allow for rainfall to be spatially and temporally input, and solve the shallow water equations. Each model is different in the way it accounts for infiltration, initial abstraction losses

Modeling Feedbacks Between Individual Human Decisions and Hydrology Using Interconnected Physical and Social Models

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Murphy, J.; Lammers, R. B.; Proussevitch, A. A.; Ozik, J.; Altaweel, M.; Collier, N. T.; Alessa, L.; Kliskey, A. D.

2014-12-01

The global hydrological cycle intersects with human decision making at multiple scales, from dams and irrigation works to the taps in individuals' homes. Residential water consumers are commonly encouraged to conserve; these messages are heard against a background of individual values and conceptions about water quality, uses, and availability. The degree to which these values impact the larger-hydrological dynamics, the way that changes in those values have impacts on the hydrological cycle through time, and the feedbacks by which water availability and quality in turn shape those values, are not well explored. To investigate this domain we employ a global-scale water balance model (WBM) coupled with a social-science-grounded agent-based model (ABM). The integration of a hydrological model with an agent-based model allows us to explore driving factors in the dynamics in coupled human-natural systems. From the perspective of the physical hydrologist, the ABM offers a richer means of incorporating the human decisions that drive the hydrological system; from the view of the social scientist, a physically-based hydrological model allows the decisions of the agents to play out against constraints faithful to the real world. We apply the interconnected models to a study of Tucson, Arizona, USA, and its role in the larger Colorado River system. Our core concept is Technology-Induced Environmental Distancing (TIED), which posits that layers of technology can insulate consumers from direct knowledge of a resource. In Tucson, multiple infrastructure and institutional layers have arguably increased the conceptual distance between individuals and their water supply, offering a test case of the TIED framework. Our coupled simulation allows us to show how the larger system transforms a resource with high temporal and spatial variability into a consumer constant, and the effects of this transformation on the regional system. We use this to explore how pricing, messaging, and

The treatment of conceptual model uncertainty for Yucca Mountain, Nevada

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boak, J.M.; Flint, A.; Dockery, H.A.

1995-01-01

A reasonable risk assessment of radioactive waste disposals faces three main problems : 1) the ability of the conceptual model to account for the effective repository process ; 2) the boundary conditions ; 3) the parameters values that model the particular site. Yucca mountain Site Characterization Project deals with these problems through two major approaches that are described here : 1) the evolution of models for the recurrence rate of volcanism ; 2) the nominal hydrologic performance for the site. These two approaches are expected to lead to a reasonable demonstration of the suitability of the site. (D.L.). 13 refs., 2 figs

Conceptual modeling coupled thermal-hydrological-chemical processes in bentonite buffer for high-level nuclear waste repository

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Choi, Byoung Young; Park, Jin Young [Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Ryu, Ji Hun [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2016-03-15

In this study, thermal-hydrological-chemical modeling for the alteration of a bentonite buffer is carried out using a simulation code TOUGHREACT. The modeling results show that the water saturation of bentonite steadily increases and finally the bentonite is fully saturated after 10 years. In addition, the temperature rapidly increases and stabilizes after 0.5 year, exhibiting a constant thermal gradient as a function of distance from the copper tube. The change of thermal-hydrological conditions mainly results in the alteration of anhydrite and calcite. Anhydrite and calcite are dissolved along with the inflow of groundwater. They then tend to precipitate in the vicinity of the copper tube due to its high temperature. This behavior induces a slight decrease in porosity and permeability of bentonite near the copper tube. Furthermore, this study finds that the diffusion coefficient can significantly affect the alteration of anhydrite and calcite, which causes changes in the hydrological properties of bentonite such as porosity and permeability. This study may facilitate the safety assessment of high-level radioactive waste repositories.

Applicability of Hydrologic Landscapes for Model Calibration ...

Science.gov (United States)

The Pacific Northwest Hydrologic Landscapes (PNW HL) at the assessment unit scale has provided a solid conceptual classification framework to relate and transfer hydrologically meaningful information between watersheds without access to streamflow time series. A collection of techniques were applied to the HL assessment unit composition in watersheds across the Pacific Northwest to aggregate the hydrologic behavior of the Hydrologic Landscapes from the assessment unit scale to the watershed scale. This non-trivial solution both emphasizes HL classifications within the watershed that provide that majority of moisture surplus/deficit and considers the relative position (upstream vs. downstream) of these HL classifications. A clustering algorithm was applied to the HL-based characterization of assessment units within 185 watersheds to help organize watersheds into nine classes hypothesized to have similar hydrologic behavior. The HL-based classes were used to organize and describe hydrologic behavior information about watershed classes and both predictions and validations were independently performed with regard to the general magnitude of six hydroclimatic signature values. A second cluster analysis was then performed using the independently calculated signature values as similarity metrics, and it was found that the six signature clusters showed substantial overlap in watershed class membership to those in the HL-based classes. One hypothesis set forward from thi

Using large hydrological datasets to create a robust, physically based, spatially distributed model for Great Britain

Science.gov (United States)

Lewis, Elizabeth; Kilsby, Chris; Fowler, Hayley

2014-05-01

The impact of climate change on hydrological systems requires further quantification in order to inform water management. This study intends to conduct such analysis using hydrological models. Such models are of varying forms, of which conceptual, lumped parameter models and physically-based models are two important types. The majority of hydrological studies use conceptual models calibrated against measured river flow time series in order to represent catchment behaviour. This method often shows impressive results for specific problems in gauged catchments. However, the results may not be robust under non-stationary conditions such as climate change, as physical processes and relationships amenable to change are not accounted for explicitly. Moreover, conceptual models are less readily applicable to ungauged catchments, in which hydrological predictions are also required. As such, the physically based, spatially distributed model SHETRAN is used in this study to develop a robust and reliable framework for modelling historic and future behaviour of gauged and ungauged catchments across the whole of Great Britain. In order to achieve this, a large array of data completely covering Great Britain for the period 1960-2006 has been collated and efficiently stored ready for model input. The data processed include a DEM, rainfall, PE and maps of geology, soil and land cover. A desire to make the modelling system easy for others to work with led to the development of a user-friendly graphical interface. This allows non-experts to set up and run a catchment model in a few seconds, a process that can normally take weeks or months. The quality and reliability of the extensive dataset for modelling hydrological processes has also been evaluated. One aspect of this has been an assessment of error and uncertainty in rainfall input data, as well as the effects of temporal resolution in precipitation inputs on model calibration. SHETRAN has been updated to accept gridded rainfall

Scale effect challenges in urban hydrology highlighted with a distributed hydrological model

Science.gov (United States)

Ichiba, Abdellah; Gires, Auguste; Tchiguirinskaia, Ioulia; Schertzer, Daniel; Bompard, Philippe; Ten Veldhuis, Marie-Claire

2018-01-01

Hydrological models are extensively used in urban water management, development and evaluation of future scenarios and research activities. There is a growing interest in the development of fully distributed and grid-based models. However, some complex questions related to scale effects are not yet fully understood and still remain open issues in urban hydrology. In this paper we propose a two-step investigation framework to illustrate the extent of scale effects in urban hydrology. First, fractal tools are used to highlight the scale dependence observed within distributed data input into urban hydrological models. Then an intensive multi-scale modelling work is carried out to understand scale effects on hydrological model performance. Investigations are conducted using a fully distributed and physically based model, Multi-Hydro, developed at Ecole des Ponts ParisTech. The model is implemented at 17 spatial resolutions ranging from 100 to 5 m. Results clearly exhibit scale effect challenges in urban hydrology modelling. The applicability of fractal concepts highlights the scale dependence observed within distributed data. Patterns of geophysical data change when the size of the observation pixel changes. The multi-scale modelling investigation confirms scale effects on hydrological model performance. Results are analysed over three ranges of scales identified in the fractal analysis and confirmed through modelling. This work also discusses some remaining issues in urban hydrology modelling related to the availability of high-quality data at high resolutions, and model numerical instabilities as well as the computation time requirements. The main findings of this paper enable a replacement of traditional methods of model calibration by innovative methods of model resolution alteration based on the spatial data variability and scaling of flows in urban hydrology.

Identifying influential data points in hydrological model calibration and their impact on streamflow predictions

Science.gov (United States)

Wright, David; Thyer, Mark; Westra, Seth

2015-04-01

Highly influential data points are those that have a disproportionately large impact on model performance, parameters and predictions. However, in current hydrological modelling practice the relative influence of individual data points on hydrological model calibration is not commonly evaluated. This presentation illustrates and evaluates several influence diagnostics tools that hydrological modellers can use to assess the relative influence of data. The feasibility and importance of including influence detection diagnostics as a standard tool in hydrological model calibration is discussed. Two classes of influence diagnostics are evaluated: (1) computationally demanding numerical "case deletion" diagnostics; and (2) computationally efficient analytical diagnostics, based on Cook's distance. These diagnostics are compared against hydrologically orientated diagnostics that describe changes in the model parameters (measured through the Mahalanobis distance), performance (objective function displacement) and predictions (mean and maximum streamflow). These influence diagnostics are applied to two case studies: a stage/discharge rating curve model, and a conceptual rainfall-runoff model (GR4J). Removing a single data point from the calibration resulted in differences to mean flow predictions of up to 6% for the rating curve model, and differences to mean and maximum flow predictions of up to 10% and 17%, respectively, for the hydrological model. When using the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency in calibration, the computationally cheaper Cook's distance metrics produce similar results to the case-deletion metrics at a fraction of the computational cost. However, Cooks distance is adapted from linear regression with inherit assumptions on the data and is therefore less flexible than case deletion. Influential point detection diagnostics show great potential to improve current hydrological modelling practices by identifying highly influential data points. The findings of this

Upscaling from research watersheds: an essential stage of trustworthy general-purpose hydrologic model building

Science.gov (United States)

McNamara, J. P.; Semenova, O.; Restrepo, P. J.

2011-12-01

Highly instrumented research watersheds provide excellent opportunities for investigating hydrologic processes. A danger, however, is that the processes observed at a particular research watershed are too specific to the watershed and not representative even of the larger scale watershed that contains that particular research watershed. Thus, models developed based on those partial observations may not be suitable for general hydrologic use. Therefore demonstrating the upscaling of hydrologic process from research watersheds to larger watersheds is essential to validate concepts and test model structure. The Hydrograph model has been developed as a general-purpose process-based hydrologic distributed system. In its applications and further development we evaluate the scaling of model concepts and parameters in a wide range of hydrologic landscapes. All models, either lumped or distributed, are based on a discretization concept. It is common practice that watersheds are discretized into so called hydrologic units or hydrologic landscapes possessing assumed homogeneous hydrologic functioning. If a model structure is fixed, the difference in hydrologic functioning (difference in hydrologic landscapes) should be reflected by a specific set of model parameters. Research watersheds provide the possibility for reasonable detailed combining of processes into some typical hydrologic concept such as hydrologic units, hydrologic forms, and runoff formation complexes in the Hydrograph model. And here by upscaling we imply not the upscaling of a single process but upscaling of such unified hydrologic functioning. The simulation of runoff processes for the Dry Creek research watershed, Idaho, USA (27 km2) was undertaken using the Hydrograph model. The information on the watershed was provided by Boise State University and included a GIS database of watershed characteristics and a detailed hydrometeorological observational dataset. The model provided good simulation results in

Development of a Coupled Hydrological/Sediment Yield Model for a Watershed at Regional Level

Science.gov (United States)

Rajbhandaril, Narayan; Crosson, William; Tsegaye, Teferi; Coleman, Tommy; Liu, Yaping; Soman, Vishwas

1998-01-01

Development of a hydrologic model for the study of environmental conservation requires a comprehensive understanding of individual-storm affecting hydrologic and sedimentologic processes. The hydrologic models that we are currently coupling are the Simulator for Hydrology and Energy Exchange at the Land Surface (SHEELS) and the Distributed Runoff Model (DRUM). SHEELS runs continuously to estimate surface energy fluxes and sub-surface soil water fluxes, while DRUM operates during and following precipitation events to predict surface runoff and peak flow through channel routing. The lateral re-distribution of surface water determined by DRUM is passed to SHEELS, which then adjusts soil water contents throughout the profile. The model SHEELS is well documented in Smith et al. (1993) and Laymen and Crosson (1995). The model DRUM is well documented in Vieux et al. (1990) and Vieux and Gauer (1994). The coupled hydrologic model, SHEELS/DRUM, does not simulate sedimentologic processes. The simulation of the sedimentologic process is important for environmental conservation planning and management. Therefore, we attempted to develop a conceptual frame work for coupling a sediment yield model with SHEELS/DRUM to estimate individual-storm sediment yield from a watershed at a regional level. The sediment yield model that will be used for this study is the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) with some modifications to enable the model to predict individual-storm sediment yield. The predicted sediment yield does not include wind erosion and erosion caused by irrigation and snow melt. Units used for this study are those given by Foster et al. (1981) for SI units.

Calibration of hydrological model with programme PEST

Science.gov (United States)

Brilly, Mitja; Vidmar, Andrej; Kryžanowski, Andrej; Bezak, Nejc; Šraj, Mojca

2016-04-01

PEST is tool based on minimization of an objective function related to the root mean square error between the model output and the measurement. We use "singular value decomposition", section of the PEST control file, and Tikhonov regularization method for successfully estimation of model parameters. The PEST sometimes failed if inverse problems were ill-posed, but (SVD) ensures that PEST maintains numerical stability. The choice of the initial guess for the initial parameter values is an important issue in the PEST and need expert knowledge. The flexible nature of the PEST software and its ability to be applied to whole catchments at once give results of calibration performed extremely well across high number of sub catchments. Use of parallel computing version of PEST called BeoPEST was successfully useful to speed up calibration process. BeoPEST employs smart slaves and point-to-point communications to transfer data between the master and slaves computers. The HBV-light model is a simple multi-tank-type model for simulating precipitation-runoff. It is conceptual balance model of catchment hydrology which simulates discharge using rainfall, temperature and estimates of potential evaporation. Version of HBV-light-CLI allows the user to run HBV-light from the command line. Input and results files are in XML form. This allows to easily connecting it with other applications such as pre and post-processing utilities and PEST itself. The procedure was applied on hydrological model of Savinja catchment (1852 km2) and consists of twenty one sub-catchments. Data are temporary processed on hourly basis.

Estimation of hydrologic properties of an unsaturated, fractured rock mass

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Klavetter, E.A.; Peters, R.R.

1986-07-01

In this document, two distinctly different approaches are used to develop continuum models to evaluate water movement in a fractured rock mass. Both models provide methods for estimating rock-mass hydrologic properties. Comparisons made over a range of different tuff properties show good qualitative and quantitative agreement between estimates of rock-mass hydrologic properties made by the two models. This document presents a general discussion of: (1) the hydrology of Yucca Mountain, and the conceptual hydrological model currently being used for the Yucca Mountain site, (2) the development of two models that may be used to estimate the hydrologic properties of a fractured, porous rock mass, and (3) a comparison of the hydrologic properties estimated by these two models. Although the models were developed in response to hydrologic characterization requirements at Yucca Mountain, they can be applied to water movement in any fractured rock mass that satisfies the given assumptions

Moving horizon estimation for assimilating H-SAF remote sensing data into the HBV hydrological model

Science.gov (United States)

Montero, Rodolfo Alvarado; Schwanenberg, Dirk; Krahe, Peter; Lisniak, Dmytro; Sensoy, Aynur; Sorman, A. Arda; Akkol, Bulut

2016-06-01

Remote sensing information has been extensively developed over the past few years including spatially distributed data for hydrological applications at high resolution. The implementation of these products in operational flow forecasting systems is still an active field of research, wherein data assimilation plays a vital role on the improvement of initial conditions of streamflow forecasts. We present a novel implementation of a variational method based on Moving Horizon Estimation (MHE), in application to the conceptual rainfall-runoff model HBV, to simultaneously assimilate remotely sensed snow covered area (SCA), snow water equivalent (SWE), soil moisture (SM) and in situ measurements of streamflow data using large assimilation windows of up to one year. This innovative application of the MHE approach allows to simultaneously update precipitation, temperature, soil moisture as well as upper and lower zones water storages of the conceptual model, within the assimilation window, without an explicit formulation of error covariance matrixes and it enables a highly flexible formulation of distance metrics for the agreement of simulated and observed variables. The framework is tested in two data-dense sites in Germany and one data-sparse environment in Turkey. Results show a potential improvement of the lead time performance of streamflow forecasts by using perfect time series of state variables generated by the simulation of the conceptual rainfall-runoff model itself. The framework is also tested using new operational data products from the Satellite Application Facility on Support to Operational Hydrology and Water Management (H-SAF) of EUMETSAT. This study is the first application of H-SAF products to hydrological forecasting systems and it verifies their added value. Results from assimilating H-SAF observations lead to a slight reduction of the streamflow forecast skill in all three cases compared to the assimilation of streamflow data only. On the other hand

Uncertainty in hydrological change modelling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Seaby, Lauren Paige

applied at the grid scale. Flux and state hydrological outputs which integrate responses over time and space showed more sensitivity to precipitation mean spatial biases and less so on extremes. In the investigated catchments, the projected change of groundwater levels and basin discharge between current......Hydrological change modelling methodologies generally use climate models outputs to force hydrological simulations under changed conditions. There are nested sources of uncertainty throughout this methodology, including choice of climate model and subsequent bias correction methods. This Ph.......D. study evaluates the uncertainty of the impact of climate change in hydrological simulations given multiple climate models and bias correction methods of varying complexity. Three distribution based scaling methods (DBS) were developed and benchmarked against a more simplistic and commonly used delta...

Assessing The Performance of Hydrological Models

Science.gov (United States)

van der Knijff, Johan

The performance of hydrological models is often characterized using the coefficient of efficiency, E. The sensitivity of E to extreme streamflow values, and the difficulty of deciding what value of E should be used as a threshold to identify 'good' models or model parameterizations, have proven to be serious shortcomings of this index. This paper reviews some alternative performance indices that have appeared in the litera- ture. Legates and McCabe (1999) suggested a more generalized form of E, E'(j,B). Here, j is a parameter that controls how much emphasis is put on extreme streamflow values, and B defines a benchmark or 'null hypothesis' against which the results of the model are tested. E'(j,B) was used to evaluate a large number of parameterizations of a conceptual rainfall-runoff model, using 6 different combinations of j and B. First, the effect of j and B is explained. Second, it is demonstrated how the index can be used to explicitly test hypotheses about the model and the data. This approach appears to be particularly attractive if the index is used as a likelihood measure within a GLUE-type analysis.

Comparing the Applicability of Commonly Used Hydrological Ecosystem Services Models for Integrated Decision-Support

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anna Lüke

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Different simulation models are used in science and practice in order to incorporate hydrological ecosystem services in decision-making processes. This contribution compares three simulation models, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, a traditional hydrological model and two ecosystem services models, the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs model and the Resource Investment Optimization System model. The three models are compared on a theoretical and conceptual basis as well in a comparative case study application. The application of the models to a study area in Nicaragua reveals that a practical benefit to apply these models for different questions in decision-making generally exists. However, modelling of hydrological ecosystem services is associated with a high application effort and requires input data that may not always be available. The degree of detail in temporal and spatial variability in ecosystem service provision is higher when using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool compared to the two ecosystem service models. In contrast, the ecosystem service models have lower requirements on input data and process knowledge. A relationship between service provision and beneficiaries is readily produced and can be visualized as a model output. The visualization is especially useful for a practical decision-making context.

Sediment carbon fate in phreatic karst (Part 1): Conceptual model development

Science.gov (United States)

Husic, A.; Fox, J.; Agouridis, C.; Currens, J.; Ford, W.; Taylor, C.

2017-06-01

Recent research has paid increased attention to quantifying the fate of carbon pools within fluvial networks, but few, if any, studies consider the fate of sediment organic carbon in fluviokarst systems despite that karst landscapes cover 12% of the earth's land surface. The authors develop a conceptual model of sediment carbon fate in karst terrain with specific emphasis upon phreatic karst conduits, i.e., those located below the groundwater table that have the potential to trap surface-derived sediment and turnover carbon. To assist with their conceptual model development, the authors study a phreatic system and apply a mixture of methods traditional and novel to karst studies, including electrical resistivity imaging, well drilling, instantaneous velocimetry, dye tracing, stage recording, discrete and continuous sediment and water quality sampling, and elemental and stable carbon isotope fingerprinting. Results show that the sediment transport carrying capacity of the phreatic karst water is orders of magnitude less than surface streams during storm-activated periods promoting deposition of fine sediments in the phreatic karst. However, the sediment transport carrying capacity is sustained long after the hydrologic event has ended leading to sediment resuspension and prolonged transport. The surficial fine grained laminae occurs in the subsurface karst system; but unlike surface streams, the light-limited conditions of the subsurface karst promotes constant heterotrophy leading to carbon turnover. The coupling of the hydrological processes leads to a conceptual model that frames phreatic karst as a biologically active conveyor of sediment carbon that recharges degraded organic carbon back to surface streams. For example, fluvial sediment is estimated to lose 30% of its organic carbon by mass during a one year temporary residence within the phreatic karst. It is recommended that scientists consider karst pathways when attempting to estimate organic matter stocks

Combined effects of climate models, hydrological model structures and land use scenarios on hydrological impacts of climate change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Karlsson, Ida B.; Sonnenborg, Torben O.; Refsgaard, Jens Christian

2016-01-01

Impact studies of the hydrological response of future climate change are important for the water authorities when risk assessment, management and adaptation to a changing climate are carried out. The objective of this study was to model the combined effect of land use and climate changes...... use scenarios. The results revealed that even though the hydrological models all showed similar performance during calibration, the mean discharge response to climate change varied up to 30%, and the variations were even higher for extreme events (1th and 99th percentile). Land use changes appeared...... to cause little change in mean hydrological responses and little variation between hydrological models. Differences in hydrological model responses to land use were, however, significant for extremes due to dissimilarities in hydrological model structure and process equations. The climate model choice...

Operational use of distributed hydrological models. Experiences and challenges at a Norwegian hydropower company (Agder Energi).

Science.gov (United States)

Viggo Matheussen, Bernt; Andresen, Arne; Weisser, Claudia

2014-05-01

The Scandinavian hydropower industry has traditionally adopted the lumped conceptual hydrological model - HBV, as the tool for producing forecasts of inflows and mountain snow packs. Such forecasting systems - based on lumped conceptual models - have several drawbacks. Firstly, a lumped model does not produce spatial data, and comparisons with remote sensed snow cover data (which are now available) are complicated. Secondly, several climate parameters such as wind speed are now becoming more available and can potentially improve forecasts due to improved estimates of precipitation gauge efficiency, and more physically correct calculation of turbulent heat fluxes. At last, when the number of catchments increases, it is cumbersome and slow to run multiple hydrology models compared to running one model for all catchments. With the drawbacks of the lumped hydrology models in mind, and with inspiration from other forecasting systems using distributed models, Agder Energy decided to develop a forecasting system applying a physically based distributed model. In this paper we describe an operational inflow and snowpack forecast system developed for the Scandinavian mountain range. The system applies a modern macroscale land surface hydrology model (VIC) which in combination with historical climate data and weather predictions can be used to produce both short-term, and seasonal forecasts of inflow and mountain snowpack. Experiences with the forecast system are illustrated using results from individual subcatchments as well as aggregated regional forecasts of inflow and snowpack. Conversion of water volumes into effective energy inflow are also presented and compared to data from the Nordic hydropower system. Further on, we document several important "lessons-learned" that may be of interest to the hydrological research community. Specifically a semi-automatic data cleansing system combining spatial and temporal visualization techniques with statistical procedures are

Aspects of Hydrological Modelling In The Punjab Himalayan and Karakoram Ranges, Pakistan

Science.gov (United States)

Loukas, A.; Khan, M. I.; Quick, M. C.

Various aspects of hydrologic modelling of high mountainous basins in the Punjab Hi- malayan and Karakoram ranges of Northern Pakistan were studied. The runoff from three basins in this region was simulated using the U.B.C. watershed model, which re- quires limited meteorological data of minimum and maximum daily temperature and precipitation. The structure of the model is based on the concept that the hydrolog- ical behavior is a function of elevation and thus, a watershed is conceptualized as a number of elevational zones. A simplified energy budget approach, which is based on daily maximum and minimum temperature and can account for forested and open areas, and aspect and latitude, is used in the U.B.C. model for the estimation of the snowmelt and glacier melt. The studied basins have different hydrological responses and limited data. The runoff from the first basin, the Astore basin, is mainly gener- ated by snowmelt. In the second basin, the Kunhar basin, the runoff is generated by snowmelt but significant redistribution of snow, caused by snow avalanches, affect the runoff generation. The third basin, the Hunza basin, is a highly glacierized basin and its runoff is mainly generated by glacier melt. The application of the U.B.C. watershed model to these three basins showed that the model could estimate reasonably well the runoff generated by the different components.

Hydrological model parameter dimensionality is a weak measure of prediction uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Pande, S.; Arkesteijn, L.; Savenije, H.; Bastidas, L. A.

2015-04-01

This paper shows that instability of hydrological system representation in response to different pieces of information and associated prediction uncertainty is a function of model complexity. After demonstrating the connection between unstable model representation and model complexity, complexity is analyzed in a step by step manner. This is done measuring differences between simulations of a model under different realizations of input forcings. Algorithms are then suggested to estimate model complexity. Model complexities of the two model structures, SAC-SMA (Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting) and its simplified version SIXPAR (Six Parameter Model), are computed on resampled input data sets from basins that span across the continental US. The model complexities for SIXPAR are estimated for various parameter ranges. It is shown that complexity of SIXPAR increases with lower storage capacity and/or higher recession coefficients. Thus it is argued that a conceptually simple model structure, such as SIXPAR, can be more complex than an intuitively more complex model structure, such as SAC-SMA for certain parameter ranges. We therefore contend that magnitudes of feasible model parameters influence the complexity of the model selection problem just as parameter dimensionality (number of parameters) does and that parameter dimensionality is an incomplete indicator of stability of hydrological model selection and prediction problems.

Estimating of the impact of land use changes using the conceptual hydrological model THESEUS??a case study

Science.gov (United States)

Wegehenkel, Martin

As a result of a new agricultural funding policy established in 1992 by the European Community, it was assumed that up to 15-20% of arable land would have been set aside in the next years in the new federal states of north-eastern Germany, for example, Brandenburg. As one potential land use option, afforestation of these set aside areas was discussed to obtain deciduous forests. Since the mean annual precipitation in north-eastern Germany, Brandenburg is relatively low (480-530 mm y -1), an increase in interception and evapotranspiration loss by forests compared to arable land would lead to a reduction in ground water recharge. Experimental evidence to determine effects of such land use changes are rarely available. Therefore, there is a need for indirect methods to estimate the impact of afforestation on the water balance of catchments. In this paper, a conceptual hydrological model was verified and calibrated in two steps using data from the Stobber-catchment located in Brandenburg. In the first step, model outputs like daily evapotranspiration rates and soil water contents were verified on the basis of experimental data sets from two test locations. One test site with the land use arable land was located within the Stobber-catchment. The other test site with pine forest was located near by the catchment. In the second step, the model was used to estimate the impact of afforestation on catchment water balance and discharge. For that purpose, the model was calibrated against daily discharge measurements for the period 1995-1997. For a simple afforestation scenario, it was assumed that the area of forest increases from 34% up to 80% of the catchment area. The impact of this change in forest cover proportion was analyzed using the calibrated model. In case of increasing the proportion of forest cover in the catchment due to the scenario afforestation, the model predicts a reduction in discharge and an increase in evapotranspiration.

Stochastic Modelling of Hydrologic Systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jonsdottir, Harpa

2007-01-01

In this PhD project several stochastic modelling methods are studied and applied on various subjects in hydrology. The research was prepared at Informatics and Mathematical Modelling at the Technical University of Denmark. The thesis is divided into two parts. The first part contains...... an introduction and an overview of the papers published. Then an introduction to basic concepts in hydrology along with a description of hydrological data is given. Finally an introduction to stochastic modelling is given. The second part contains the research papers. In the research papers the stochastic methods...... are described, as at the time of publication these methods represent new contribution to hydrology. The second part also contains additional description of software used and a brief introduction to stiff systems. The system in one of the papers is stiff....

netherland hydrological modeling instrument

Science.gov (United States)

Hoogewoud, J. C.; de Lange, W. J.; Veldhuizen, A.; Prinsen, G.

2012-04-01

Netherlands Hydrological Modeling Instrument A decision support system for water basin management. J.C. Hoogewoud , W.J. de Lange ,A. Veldhuizen , G. Prinsen , The Netherlands Hydrological modeling Instrument (NHI) is the center point of a framework of models, to coherently model the hydrological system and the multitude of functions it supports. Dutch hydrological institutes Deltares, Alterra, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, RWS Waterdienst, STOWA and Vewin are cooperating in enhancing the NHI for adequate decision support. The instrument is used by three different ministries involved in national water policy matters, for instance the WFD, drought management, manure policy and climate change issues. The basis of the modeling instrument is a state-of-the-art on-line coupling of the groundwater system (MODFLOW), the unsaturated zone (metaSWAP) and the surface water system (MOZART-DM). It brings together hydro(geo)logical processes from the column to the basin scale, ranging from 250x250m plots to the river Rhine and includes salt water flow. The NHI is validated with an eight year run (1998-2006) with dry and wet periods. For this run different parts of the hydrology have been compared with measurements. For instance, water demands in dry periods (e.g. for irrigation), discharges at outlets, groundwater levels and evaporation. A validation alone is not enough to get support from stakeholders. Involvement from stakeholders in the modeling process is needed. There fore to gain sufficient support and trust in the instrument on different (policy) levels a couple of actions have been taken: 1. a transparent evaluation of modeling-results has been set up 2. an extensive program is running to cooperate with regional waterboards and suppliers of drinking water in improving the NHI 3. sharing (hydrological) data via newly setup Modeling Database for local and national models 4. Enhancing the NHI with "local" information. The NHI is and has been used for many

Hydrologic consistency as a basis for assessing complexity of monthly water balance models for the continental United States

Science.gov (United States)

Martinez, Guillermo F.; Gupta, Hoshin V.

2011-12-01

Methods to select parsimonious and hydrologically consistent model structures are useful for evaluating dominance of hydrologic processes and representativeness of data. While information criteria (appropriately constrained to obey underlying statistical assumptions) can provide a basis for evaluating appropriate model complexity, it is not sufficient to rely upon the principle of maximum likelihood (ML) alone. We suggest that one must also call upon a "principle of hydrologic consistency," meaning that selected ML structures and parameter estimates must be constrained (as well as possible) to reproduce desired hydrological characteristics of the processes under investigation. This argument is demonstrated in the context of evaluating the suitability of candidate model structures for lumped water balance modeling across the continental United States, using data from 307 snow-free catchments. The models are constrained to satisfy several tests of hydrologic consistency, a flow space transformation is used to ensure better consistency with underlying statistical assumptions, and information criteria are used to evaluate model complexity relative to the data. The results clearly demonstrate that the principle of consistency provides a sensible basis for guiding selection of model structures and indicate strong spatial persistence of certain model structures across the continental United States. Further work to untangle reasons for model structure predominance can help to relate conceptual model structures to physical characteristics of the catchments, facilitating the task of prediction in ungaged basins.

A new moving strategy for the sequential Monte Carlo approach in optimizing the hydrological model parameters

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Gaofeng; Li, Xin; Ma, Jinzhu; Wang, Yunquan; Liu, Shaomin; Huang, Chunlin; Zhang, Kun; Hu, Xiaoli

2018-04-01

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) samplers have become increasing popular for estimating the posterior parameter distribution with the non-linear dependency structures and multiple modes often present in hydrological models. However, the explorative capabilities and efficiency of the sampler depends strongly on the efficiency in the move step of SMC sampler. In this paper we presented a new SMC sampler entitled the Particle Evolution Metropolis Sequential Monte Carlo (PEM-SMC) algorithm, which is well suited to handle unknown static parameters of hydrologic model. The PEM-SMC sampler is inspired by the works of Liang and Wong (2001) and operates by incorporating the strengths of the genetic algorithm, differential evolution algorithm and Metropolis-Hasting algorithm into the framework of SMC. We also prove that the sampler admits the target distribution to be a stationary distribution. Two case studies including a multi-dimensional bimodal normal distribution and a conceptual rainfall-runoff hydrologic model by only considering parameter uncertainty and simultaneously considering parameter and input uncertainty show that PEM-SMC sampler is generally superior to other popular SMC algorithms in handling the high dimensional problems. The study also indicated that it may be important to account for model structural uncertainty by using multiplier different hydrological models in the SMC framework in future study.

Future discharge drought across climate regions around the world modelled with a synthetic hydrological modelling approach forced by three general circulation models

Science.gov (United States)

Wanders, N.; Van Lanen, H. A. J.

2015-03-01

Hydrological drought characteristics (drought in groundwater and streamflow) likely will change in the 21st century as a result of climate change. The magnitude and directionality of these changes and their dependency on climatology and catchment characteristics, however, is uncertain. In this study a conceptual hydrological model was forced by downscaled and bias-corrected outcome from three general circulation models for the SRES A2 emission scenario (GCM forced models), and the WATCH Forcing Data set (reference model). The threshold level method was applied to investigate drought occurrence, duration and severity. Results for the control period (1971-2000) show that the drought characteristics of each GCM forced model reasonably agree with the reference model for most of the climate types, suggesting that the climate models' results after post-processing produce realistic outcomes for global drought analyses. For the near future (2021-2050) and far future (2071-2100) the GCM forced models show a decrease in drought occurrence for all major climates around the world and increase of both average drought duration and deficit volume of the remaining drought events. The largest decrease in hydrological drought occurrence is expected in cold (D) climates where global warming results in a decreased length of the snow season and an increased precipitation. In the dry (B) climates the smallest decrease in drought occurrence is expected to occur, which probably will lead to even more severe water scarcity. However, in the extreme climate regions (desert and polar), the drought analysis for the control period showed that projections of hydrological drought characteristics are most uncertain. On a global scale the increase in hydrological drought duration and severity in multiple regions will lead to a higher impact of drought events, which should motivate water resource managers to timely anticipate the increased risk of more severe drought in groundwater and streamflow

A simple rainfall-runoff model for the single and long term hydrological performance of green roofs

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Locatelli, Luca; Mark, Ole; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

Green roofs are being widely implemented for storm water control and runoff reduction. There is need for incorporating green roofs into urban drainage models in order to evaluate their impact. These models must have low computational costs and fine time resolution. This paper aims to develop...... a model of green roof hydrological performance. A simple conceptual model for the long term and single event hydrological performance of green roofs, shows to be capable of reproducing observed runoff measurements. The model has surface and subsurface storage components representing the overall retention...... capacity of the green roof. The runoff from the system is described by the non-linear reservoir method and the storage capacity of the green roof is continuously re-established by evapotranspiration. Runoff data from a green roof in Denmark are collected and used for parameter calibration....

An ensemble approach to assess hydrological models' contribution to uncertainties in the analysis of climate change impact on water resources

Science.gov (United States)

Velázquez, J. A.; Schmid, J.; Ricard, S.; Muerth, M. J.; Gauvin St-Denis, B.; Minville, M.; Chaumont, D.; Caya, D.; Ludwig, R.; Turcotte, R.

2012-06-01

Over the recent years, several research efforts investigated the impact of climate change on water resources for different regions of the world. The projection of future river flows is affected by different sources of uncertainty in the hydro-climatic modelling chain. One of the aims of the QBic3 project (Québec-Bavarian International Collaboration on Climate Change) is to assess the contribution to uncertainty of hydrological models by using an ensemble of hydrological models presenting a diversity of structural complexity (i.e. lumped, semi distributed and distributed models). The study investigates two humid, mid-latitude catchments with natural flow conditions; one located in Southern Québec (Canada) and one in Southern Bavaria (Germany). Daily flow is simulated with four different hydrological models, forced by outputs from regional climate models driven by a given number of GCMs' members over a reference (1971-2000) and a future (2041-2070) periods. The results show that the choice of the hydrological model does strongly affect the climate change response of selected hydrological indicators, especially those related to low flows. Indicators related to high flows seem less sensitive on the choice of the hydrological model. Therefore, the computationally less demanding models (usually simple, lumped and conceptual) give a significant level of trust for high and overall mean flows.

Modelling past hydrology of an interfluve area in the Campine region (NE Belgium)

Science.gov (United States)

Leterme, Bertrand; Beerten, Koen; Gedeon, Matej; Vandersteen, Katrijn

2015-04-01

This study aims at hydrological model verification of a small lowland interfluve area (18.6 km²) in NE Belgium, for conditions that are different than today. We compare the current state with five reference periods in the past (AD 1500, 1770, 1854, 1909 and 1961) representing important stages of landscape evolution in the study area. Historical information and proxy data are used to derive conceptual model features and boundary conditions specific to each period: topography, surface water geometry (canal, drains and lakes), land use, soils, vegetation and climate. The influence of landscape evolution on the hydrological cycle is assessed using numerical simulations of a coupled unsaturated zone - groundwater model (HYDRUS-MODFLOW). The induced hydrological changes are assessed in terms of groundwater level, recharge, evapotranspiration, and surface water discharge. HYDRUS-MODFLOW coupling allows including important processes such as the groundwater contribution to evapotranspiration. Major land use change occurred between AD 1854 and 1909, with about 41% of the study area being converted from heath to coniferous forest, together with the development of a drainage network. Results show that this led to a significant decrease of groundwater recharge and lowering of the groundwater table. A limitation of the study lies in the comparison of simulated past hydrology with appropriate palaeo-records. Examples are given as how some indicators (groundwater head, swamp zones) can be used to tend to model validation. Quantifying the relative impact of land use and climate changes requires running sensitivity simulations where the models using alternative land use are run with the climate forcing of other periods. A few examples of such sensitivity runs are presented in order to compare the influence of land use and climate change on the study area hydrology.

Quantifying the performance of two conceptual models for snow dominated catchments in Austria and Turkey

Science.gov (United States)

Sensoy, Aynur; Parajka, Juraj; Coskun, Cihan; Sorman, Arda; Ertas, Cansaran

2014-05-01

In many mountainous regions, snowmelt makes significant contribution to streamflow, particularly during spring and summer months. Understanding the magnitude and timing of this contribution and hydrological forecasts are essential for a range of purposes concerning the implications with water resources management. Conceptual hydrological models have been widely applied for mountain catchments both for operational and scientific applications. Hydrologiska Byran Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) and Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) are selected in this study as the commonly used conceptual models in hydrological modeling forecasting for a number of basins in several countries. Moreover, this selection is also supported by the experiences on the improvement and application in remote sensing techniques in snow dominated regions. The greatest similarity between the two models is that each uses a temperature index method to predict melt rate whereas the greatest difference lies in the way snow cover is handled. In mountainous regions, data limitations prevent detailed understanding of the variability of snow cover and melt. In situ snowpack measurements are sparsely distributed relative to snowpack heterogeneity therefore, to supplement ground measurements; remotely sensed images of snow covered area (SCA) provide useful information for runoff prediction during the snowmelt season. SCA has been used as a direct input to SRM and as a means of checking the internal validity for HBV model. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) daily snow cover products with 500 m spatial resolution are used to derive SCA data in this study. A number of studies have been reported in the literature indicated that the model performance can vary depending on several factors, including the scale and characteristics of the catchment, availability of the data required and runoff producing mechanism. Therefore, five different catchments including data scare and rich basins, areas and reliefs

Investigating impacts of natural and human-induced environmental changes on hydrological processes and flood hazards using a GIS-based hydrological/hydraulic model and remote sensing data

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Lei

Natural and human-induced environmental changes have been altering the earth's surface and hydrological processes, and thus directly contribute to the severity of flood hazards. To understand these changes and their impacts, this research developed a GIS-based hydrological and hydraulic modeling system, which incorporates state-of-the-art remote sensing data to simulate flood under various scenarios. The conceptual framework and technical issues of incorporating multi-scale remote sensing data have been addressed. This research develops an object-oriented hydrological modeling framework. Compared with traditional lumped or cell-based distributed hydrological modeling frameworks, the object-oriented framework allows basic spatial hydrologic units to have various size and irregular shape. This framework is capable of assimilating various GIS and remotely-sensed data with different spatial resolutions. It ensures the computational efficiency, while preserving sufficient spatial details of input data and model outputs. Sensitivity analysis and comparison of high resolution LIDAR DEM with traditional USGS 30m resolution DEM suggests that the use of LIDAR DEMs can greatly reduce uncertainty in calibration of flow parameters in the hydrologic model and hence increase the reliability of modeling results. In addition, subtle topographic features and hydrologic objects like surface depressions and detention basins can be extracted from the high resolution LiDAR DEMs. An innovative algorithm has been developed to efficiently delineate surface depressions and detention basins from LiDAR DEMs. Using a time series of Landsat images, a retrospective analysis of surface imperviousness has been conducted to assess the hydrologic impact of urbanization. The analysis reveals that with rapid urbanization the impervious surface has been increased from 10.1% to 38.4% for the case study area during 1974--2002. As a result, the peak flow for a 100-year flood event has increased by 20% and

Integrating 3D geological information with a national physically-based hydrological modelling system

Science.gov (United States)

Lewis, Elizabeth; Parkin, Geoff; Kessler, Holger; Whiteman, Mark

2016-04-01

Robust numerical models are an essential tool for informing flood and water management and policy around the world. Physically-based hydrological models have traditionally not been used for such applications due to prohibitively large data, time and computational resource requirements. Given recent advances in computing power and data availability, a robust, physically-based hydrological modelling system for Great Britain using the SHETRAN model and national datasets has been created. Such a model has several advantages over less complex systems. Firstly, compared with conceptual models, a national physically-based model is more readily applicable to ungauged catchments, in which hydrological predictions are also required. Secondly, the results of a physically-based system may be more robust under changing conditions such as climate and land cover, as physical processes and relationships are explicitly accounted for. Finally, a fully integrated surface and subsurface model such as SHETRAN offers a wider range of applications compared with simpler schemes, such as assessments of groundwater resources, sediment and nutrient transport and flooding from multiple sources. As such, SHETRAN provides a robust means of simulating numerous terrestrial system processes which will add physical realism when coupled to the JULES land surface model. 306 catchments spanning Great Britain have been modelled using this system. The standard configuration of this system performs satisfactorily (NSE > 0.5) for 72% of catchments and well (NSE > 0.7) for 48%. Many of the remaining 28% of catchments that performed relatively poorly (NSE land cover change studies and integrated assessments of groundwater and surface water resources.

Development of a regional hydrologic soil model and application to the Beerze-Reusel drainage basin

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kolditz, O.; Du, Y.; Buerger, C.; Delfs, J.; Kuntz, D.; Beinhorn, M.; Hess, M.; Wang, W.; Grift, B. van der; Stroet, C. te

2007-01-01

The soil compartment is an important interface between the atmosphere and the subsurface hydrosphere. In this paper a conceptual approach for regional hydrologic soil modelling (RHSM) is presented, which provides two important qualities for modelling. First, the soil compartment is directly coupled to the atmosphere via the land surface and to the aquifers. Second, extremely fine (5 cm vertical) resolutions of the soil system can be realized at regional scales (several hundreds of km 2 ). This high-resolution modelling could be achieved by parallel computation techniques. The RHSM approach is applied to the Beerze-Reusel drainage basin, which belongs to the Meuse River basin. Moisture transport in the soil system was calculated with extremely high vertical resolution at a regional scale based on rainfall-evaporation data for the year 2000. As a result, highly resolved regional groundwater recharge pattern addressing the heterogeneity of soil systems could be determined. - A real case application of concept of regional hydrologic soil modelling is presented

A Community Data Model for Hydrologic Observations

Science.gov (United States)

Tarboton, D. G.; Horsburgh, J. S.; Zaslavsky, I.; Maidment, D. R.; Valentine, D.; Jennings, B.

2006-12-01

The CUAHSI Hydrologic Information System project is developing information technology infrastructure to support hydrologic science. Hydrologic information science involves the description of hydrologic environments in a consistent way, using data models for information integration. This includes a hydrologic observations data model for the storage and retrieval of hydrologic observations in a relational database designed to facilitate data retrieval for integrated analysis of information collected by multiple investigators. It is intended to provide a standard format to facilitate the effective sharing of information between investigators and to facilitate analysis of information within a single study area or hydrologic observatory, or across hydrologic observatories and regions. The observations data model is designed to store hydrologic observations and sufficient ancillary information (metadata) about the observations to allow them to be unambiguously interpreted and used and provide traceable heritage from raw measurements to usable information. The design is based on the premise that a relational database at the single observation level is most effective for providing querying capability and cross dimension data retrieval and analysis. This premise is being tested through the implementation of a prototype hydrologic observations database, and the development of web services for the retrieval of data from and ingestion of data into the database. These web services hosted by the San Diego Supercomputer center make data in the database accessible both through a Hydrologic Data Access System portal and directly from applications software such as Excel, Matlab and ArcGIS that have Standard Object Access Protocol (SOAP) capability. This paper will (1) describe the data model; (2) demonstrate the capability for representing diverse data in the same database; (3) demonstrate the use of the database from applications software for the performance of hydrologic analysis

Hydrology model evaluation at the Hanford Nuclear Waste Facility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1977-04-01

One and two-dimensional flow and contaminant transport computer models have been developed at Hanford to assess the rate and direction of contaminant movement from waste disposal sites. The primary objective of this work was to evaluate the potential improvement in accuracy that a three-dimensional model might offer over the simpler one and two-dimensional models. INTERA's hydrology contaminant transport model was used for this evaluation. Although this study was conceptual in nature, an attempt was made to relate it as closely as possible to Hanford conditions. Two-dimensional model runs were performed over the period of 1968 to 1973 using estimates of waste discharge flows, tritium concentrations, vertically averaged values of aquifer properties and boundary conditions. The well test interpretation runs confirmed the applicability of the areal hydraulic conductivity distribution. Velocity fields calculated by the two-dimensional and three-dimensional models and surface concentration profiles calculated by the two-dimensional and three-dimensional models show significant differences. Vertical concentration profiles calculated by a three-dimensional model show better qualitative agreement with the limited observed concentration profile data supplied by ARHCO

Data assimilation in integrated hydrological modelling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, Jørn

Integrated hydrological models are useful tools for water resource management and research, and advances in computational power and the advent of new observation types has resulted in the models generally becoming more complex and distributed. However, the models are often characterized by a high...... degree of parameterization which results in significant model uncertainty which cannot be reduced much due to observations often being scarce and often taking the form of point measurements. Data assimilation shows great promise for use in integrated hydrological models , as it allows for observations...... to be efficiently combined with models to improve model predictions, reduce uncertainty and estimate model parameters. In this thesis, a framework for assimilating multiple observation types and updating multiple components and parameters of a catchment scale integrated hydrological model is developed and tested...

A conceptual model for the blooming behavior and persistence of the benthic mat-forming diatom Didymosphenia geminata in oligotrophic streams

Science.gov (United States)

Cullis, James D. S.; Gillis, Carole-Anne; Bothwell, Max L.; Kilroy, Cathy; Packman, Aaron; Hassan, Marwan

2012-06-01

The benthic, mat-forming diatomDidymosphenia geminata has the unique ability to produce large amounts of algal biomass under oligotrophic conditions in cold, fast flowing streams and rivers. This presents an ecological paradox that challenges our current understanding of stream ecosystem dynamics. Our understanding of the drivers of D. geminata ecology is still limited. Here we present a conceptual model for the blooming behavior and persistence of this species to advance scientific understanding of strategies for life in fast flowing oligotrophic waters and support the design of future research and mitigation measures for nuisance algal blooms. The conceptual model is based on a synthesis of data and ideas from a range of disciplines including hydrology, geomorphology, biogeochemistry, and ecology. The conceptual model highlights the role of water chemistry, river morphology, and flow thresholds in defining the habitat window for D. geminata. We propose that bed disturbance is a primary control on accumulation and persistence of D. geminataand that the removal threshold can be determined by synthesizing site-specific information on hydrology and geomorphology. Further, we propose that a key to understanding the didymo paradox is the separation of cellular reproduction and mat morphology with specific controls acting in respect of the different processes.

Calibration and Validation Parameter of Hydrologic Model HEC-HMS using Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithms – Single Objective

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Garmeh

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Planning and management of water resource and river basins needs use of conceptual hydrologic models which play a significant role in predicting basins response to different climatic and meteorological processes. Evaluating watershed response through mathematical hydrologic models requires finding a set of parameter values of the model which provides thebest fit between observed and estimated hydrographs in a procedure called calibration. Asmanual calibration is tedious, time consuming and requires personal experience, automaticcalibration methods make application of more significant CRR models which are based onusing a systematic search procedure to find good parameter sets in terms of at least oneobjective function. Materials and Methods: Conceptual hydrologic models play a significant role inpredicting a basin’s response to different climatic and meteorological processes within natural systems. However, these models require a number of estimated parameters. Model calibration is the procedure of adjusting the parametervalues until the model predictions match the observed data. Manual calibration of high-fidelity hydrologic (simulation models is tedious, time consuming and sometimesimpractical, especially when the number of parameters islarge. Moreover, the high degrees of nonlinearity involved in different hydrologic processes and non-uniqueness ofinverse-type calibration problems make it difficult to find asingle set of parameter values. In this research, the conceptual HEC-HMS model is integrated with the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO algorithm.The HEC-HMS model was developed as areplacement for HEC-1, which has long been considered as astandard model for hydrologic simulation. Most of thehydrologic models employed in HEC-HMS are event-basedmodels simulating a single storm requiring the specificationof all conditions at the beginning of the simulation. The soil moistureaccounting model in the HEC-HMS is the onlycontinuous

Hydrological land surface modelling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ridler, Marc-Etienne Francois

Recent advances in integrated hydrological and soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer (SVAT) modelling have led to improved water resource management practices, greater crop production, and better flood forecasting systems. However, uncertainty is inherent in all numerical models ultimately leading...... temperature are explored in a multi-objective calibration experiment to optimize the parameters in a SVAT model in the Sahel. The two satellite derived variables were effective at constraining most land-surface and soil parameters. A data assimilation framework is developed and implemented with an integrated...... and disaster management. The objective of this study is to develop and investigate methods to reduce hydrological model uncertainty by using supplementary data sources. The data is used either for model calibration or for model updating using data assimilation. Satellite estimates of soil moisture and surface...

Regionalization Study of Satellite based Hydrological Model (SHM) in Hydrologically Homogeneous River Basins of India

Science.gov (United States)

Kumari, Babita; Paul, Pranesh Kumar; Singh, Rajendra; Mishra, Ashok; Gupta, Praveen Kumar; Singh, Raghvendra P.

2017-04-01

A new semi-distributed conceptual hydrological model, namely Satellite based Hydrological Model (SHM), has been developed under 'PRACRITI-2' program of Space Application Centre (SAC), Ahmedabad for sustainable water resources management of India by using data from Indian Remote Sensing satellites. Entire India is divided into 5km x 5km grid cells and properties at the center of the cells are assumed to represent the property of the cells. SHM contains five modules namely surface water, forest, snow, groundwater and routing. Two empirical equations (SCS-CN and Hargreaves) and water balance method have been used in the surface water module; the forest module is based on the calculations of water balancing & dynamics of subsurface. 2-D Boussinesq equation is used for groundwater modelling which is solved using implicit finite-difference. The routing module follows a distributed routing approach which requires flow path and network with the key point of travel time estimation. The aim of this study is to evaluate the performance of SHM using regionalization technique which also checks the usefulness of a model in data scarce condition or for ungauged basins. However, homogeneity analysis is pre-requisite to regionalization. Similarity index (Φ) and hierarchical agglomerative cluster analysis are adopted to test the homogeneity in terms of physical attributes of three basins namely Brahmani (39,033 km km^2)), Baitarani (10,982 km km^2)) and Kangsabati (9,660 km km^2)) with respect to Subarnarekha (29,196 km km^2)) basin. The results of both homogeneity analysis show that Brahmani basin is the most homogeneous with respect to Subarnarekha river basin in terms of physical characteristics (land use land cover classes, soiltype and elevation). The calibration and validation of model parameters of Brahmani basin is in progress which are to be transferred into the SHM set up of Subarnarekha basin and results are to be compared with the results of calibrated and validated

Embedding complex hydrology in the climate system - towards fully coupled climate-hydrology models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Butts, M.; Rasmussen, S.H.; Ridler, M.

2013-01-01

Motivated by the need to develop better tools to understand the impact of future management and climate change on water resources, we present a set of studies with the overall aim of developing a fully dynamic coupling between a comprehensive hydrological model, MIKE SHE, and a regional climate...... distributed parameters using satellite remote sensing. Secondly, field data are used to investigate the effects of model resolution and parameter scales for use in a coupled model. Finally, the development of the fully coupled climate-hydrology model is described and some of the challenges associated...... with coupling models for hydrological processes on sub-grid scales of the regional climate model are presented....

Modelling food-web mediated effects of hydrological variability and environmental flows.

Science.gov (United States)

Robson, Barbara J; Lester, Rebecca E; Baldwin, Darren S; Bond, Nicholas R; Drouart, Romain; Rolls, Robert J; Ryder, Darren S; Thompson, Ross M

2017-11-01

Environmental flows are designed to enhance aquatic ecosystems through a variety of mechanisms; however, to date most attention has been paid to the effects on habitat quality and life-history triggers, especially for fish and vegetation. The effects of environmental flows on food webs have so far received little attention, despite food-web thinking being fundamental to understanding of river ecosystems. Understanding environmental flows in a food-web context can help scientists and policy-makers better understand and manage outcomes of flow alteration and restoration. In this paper, we consider mechanisms by which flow variability can influence and alter food webs, and place these within a conceptual and numerical modelling framework. We also review the strengths and weaknesses of various approaches to modelling the effects of hydrological management on food webs. Although classic bioenergetic models such as Ecopath with Ecosim capture many of the key features required, other approaches, such as biogeochemical ecosystem modelling, end-to-end modelling, population dynamic models, individual-based models, graph theory models, and stock assessment models are also relevant. In many cases, a combination of approaches will be useful. We identify current challenges and new directions in modelling food-web responses to hydrological variability and environmental flow management. These include better integration of food-web and hydraulic models, taking physiologically-based approaches to food quality effects, and better representation of variations in space and time that may create ecosystem control points. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

ERM model analysis for adaptation to hydrological model errors

Science.gov (United States)

Baymani-Nezhad, M.; Han, D.

2018-05-01

Hydrological conditions are changed continuously and these phenomenons generate errors on flood forecasting models and will lead to get unrealistic results. Therefore, to overcome these difficulties, a concept called model updating is proposed in hydrological studies. Real-time model updating is one of the challenging processes in hydrological sciences and has not been entirely solved due to lack of knowledge about the future state of the catchment under study. Basically, in terms of flood forecasting process, errors propagated from the rainfall-runoff model are enumerated as the main source of uncertainty in the forecasting model. Hence, to dominate the exciting errors, several methods have been proposed by researchers to update the rainfall-runoff models such as parameter updating, model state updating, and correction on input data. The current study focuses on investigations about the ability of rainfall-runoff model parameters to cope with three types of existing errors, timing, shape and volume as the common errors in hydrological modelling. The new lumped model, the ERM model, has been selected for this study to evaluate its parameters for its use in model updating to cope with the stated errors. Investigation about ten events proves that the ERM model parameters can be updated to cope with the errors without the need to recalibrate the model.

Intercomparison of hydrological model structures and calibration approaches in climate scenario impact projections

Science.gov (United States)

Vansteenkiste, Thomas; Tavakoli, Mohsen; Ntegeka, Victor; De Smedt, Florimond; Batelaan, Okke; Pereira, Fernando; Willems, Patrick

2014-11-01

The objective of this paper is to investigate the effects of hydrological model structure and calibration on climate change impact results in hydrology. The uncertainty in the hydrological impact results is assessed by the relative change in runoff volumes and peak and low flow extremes from historical and future climate conditions. The effect of the hydrological model structure is examined through the use of five hydrological models with different spatial resolutions and process descriptions. These were applied to a medium sized catchment in Belgium. The models vary from the lumped conceptual NAM, PDM and VHM models over the intermediate detailed and distributed WetSpa model to the fully distributed MIKE SHE model. The latter model accounts for the 3D groundwater processes and interacts bi-directionally with a full hydrodynamic MIKE 11 river model. After careful and manual calibration of these models, accounting for the accuracy of the peak and low flow extremes and runoff subflows, and the changes in these extremes for changing rainfall conditions, the five models respond in a similar way to the climate scenarios over Belgium. Future projections on peak flows are highly uncertain with expected increases as well as decreases depending on the climate scenario. The projections on future low flows are more uniform; low flows decrease (up to 60%) for all models and for all climate scenarios. However, the uncertainties in the impact projections are high, mainly in the dry season. With respect to the model structural uncertainty, the PDM model simulates significantly higher runoff peak flows under future wet scenarios, which is explained by its specific model structure. For the low flow extremes, the MIKE SHE model projects significantly lower low flows in dry scenario conditions in comparison to the other models, probably due to its large difference in process descriptions for the groundwater component, the groundwater-river interactions. The effect of the model

Flood Modelling of Banjir Kanal Barat (Integration of Hydrology Model and GIS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Muhammad Aris Marfai

2004-01-01

Full Text Available Hydrological modelling has an advantage on river flood study. Hydrological factors can be easily determined and calculated using hydrological model. HEC-RAS (Hydrological Engineering Centre-River Analysis System software is well known as hydrological modelling software for flood simulation and encroachment analysis of the floodplain area. For spatial performance and analysis of flood, the integration of the Geographic Information Systems (GIS and hydrological model is needed. The aims of this research are 1 to perform a flood encroachment using HEC-RAS software, and 2 to generate a flood hazard map. The methodology for this research omprise of 1 generating geometric data as a requirement of the data input on HEC-RAS hydrological model, 2 Hydrological data inputting, 3 generating of the flood encroachment analysis, and 4 transformation of flood encroachment into flood hazard map. The spatial pattern of the flood hazard is illustrated in a map. The result shows that hydrological model as integration with GIS can be used for flood hazard map generation. This method has advantages on the calculation of the hydrological factors of flood and spatial performance of the flood hazard map. For further analysis, the landuse map can be used on the overlay operation with the flood hazard map in order to obtain the impact of the flood on the landuse.

Hydrological Modeling in Alaska with WRF-Hydro

Science.gov (United States)

Elmer, N. J.; Zavodsky, B.; Molthan, A.

2017-12-01

The operational National Water Model (NWM), implemented in August 2016, is an instantiation of the Weather Research and Forecasting hydrological extension package (WRF-Hydro). Currently, the NWM only covers the contiguous United States, but will be expanded to include an Alaska domain in the future. It is well known that Alaska presents several hydrological modeling challenges, including unique arctic/sub-arctic hydrological processes not observed elsewhere in the United States and a severe lack of in-situ observations for model initialization. This project sets up an experimental version of WRF-Hydro in Alaska mimicking the NWM to gauge the ability of WRF-Hydro to represent hydrological processes in Alaska and identify model calibration challenges. Recent and upcoming launches of hydrology-focused NASA satellite missions such as the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) and Surface Water Ocean Topography (SWOT) expand the spatial and temporal coverage of observations in Alaska, so this study also lays the groundwork for assimilating these NASA datasets into WRF-Hydro in the future.

Event-Based Conceptual Modeling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bækgaard, Lars

2009-01-01

The purpose of the paper is to obtain insight into and provide practical advice for event-based conceptual modeling. We analyze a set of event concepts and use the results to formulate a conceptual event model that is used to identify guidelines for creation of dynamic process models and static...... information models. We characterize events as short-duration processes that have participants, consequences, and properties, and that may be modeled in terms of information structures. The conceptual event model is used to characterize a variety of event concepts and it is used to illustrate how events can...... be used to integrate dynamic modeling of processes and static modeling of information structures. The results are unique in the sense that no other general event concept has been used to unify a similar broad variety of seemingly incompatible event concepts. The general event concept can be used...

The evolution of process-based hydrologic models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Clark, Martyn P.; Bierkens, Marc F.P.; Samaniego, Luis; Woods, Ross A.; Uijlenhoet, Remko; Bennett, Katrina E.; Pauwels, Valentijn R.N.; Cai, Xitian; Wood, Andrew W.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.

2017-01-01

The diversity in hydrologic models has historically led to great controversy on the "correct" approach to process-based hydrologic modeling, with debates centered on the adequacy of process parameterizations, data limitations and uncertainty, and computational constraints on model analysis. In this

Network analysis applications in hydrology

Science.gov (United States)

Price, Katie

2017-04-01

Applied network theory has seen pronounced expansion in recent years, in fields such as epidemiology, computer science, and sociology. Concurrent development of analytical methods and frameworks has increased possibilities and tools available to researchers seeking to apply network theory to a variety of problems. While water and nutrient fluxes through stream systems clearly demonstrate a directional network structure, the hydrological applications of network theory remain under­explored. This presentation covers a review of network applications in hydrology, followed by an overview of promising network analytical tools that potentially offer new insights into conceptual modeling of hydrologic systems, identifying behavioral transition zones in stream networks and thresholds of dynamical system response. Network applications were tested along an urbanization gradient in Atlanta, Georgia, USA. Peachtree Creek and Proctor Creek. Peachtree Creek contains a nest of five long­term USGS streamflow and water quality gages, allowing network application of long­term flow statistics. The watershed spans a range of suburban and heavily urbanized conditions. Summary flow statistics and water quality metrics were analyzed using a suite of network analysis techniques, to test the conceptual modeling and predictive potential of the methodologies. Storm events and low flow dynamics during Summer 2016 were analyzed using multiple network approaches, with an emphasis on tomogravity methods. Results indicate that network theory approaches offer novel perspectives for understanding long­ term and event­based hydrological data. Key future directions for network applications include 1) optimizing data collection, 2) identifying "hotspots" of contaminant and overland flow influx to stream systems, 3) defining process domains, and 4) analyzing dynamic connectivity of various system components, including groundwater­surface water interactions.

Modelling hydrological processes and dissolved organic carbon dynamics in a rehabilitated Sphagnum-dominated peatland

Science.gov (United States)

Bernard-Jannin, Léonard; Binet, Stéphane; Gogo, Sébastien; Leroy, Fabien; Perdereau, Laurent; Laggoun-Défarge, Fatima

2017-04-01

exports at the peatland scale before and after the restoration. This simple conceptual model requires few data to operate. Its application on different sites with contrasted settings (hydrological and climatic conditions) could provide insight on the dominant hydrological processes and their impact on DOC dynamics in peatlands. Binet S., Gogo S., Laggoun-Défarge F., A water-table dependent reservoir model to investigate the effect of drought and vascular plant invasion on peatland hydrology, Journal of Hydrology, Volume 499, 30 August 2013, Pages 132-139, ISSN 0022-1694, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.06.035.

Assimilation of remote sensing observations into a continuous distributed hydrological model: impacts on the hydrologic cycle

Science.gov (United States)

Laiolo, Paola; Gabellani, Simone; Campo, Lorenzo; Cenci, Luca; Silvestro, Francesco; Delogu, Fabio; Boni, Giorgio; Rudari, Roberto

2015-04-01

The reliable estimation of hydrological variables (e.g. soil moisture, evapotranspiration, surface temperature) in space and time is of fundamental importance in operational hydrology to improve the forecast of the rainfall-runoff response of catchments and, consequently, flood predictions. Nowadays remote sensing can offer a chance to provide good space-time estimates of several hydrological variables and then improve hydrological model performances especially in environments with scarce in-situ data. This work investigates the impact of the assimilation of different remote sensing products on the hydrological cycle by using a continuous physically based distributed hydrological model. Three soil moisture products derived by ASCAT (Advanced SCATterometer) are used to update the model state variables. The satellite-derived products are assimilated into the hydrological model using different assimilation techniques: a simple nudging and the Ensemble Kalman Filter. Moreover two assimilation strategies are evaluated to assess the impact of assimilating the satellite products at model spatial resolution or at the satellite scale. The experiments are carried out for three Italian catchments on multi year period. The benefits on the model predictions of discharge, LST, evapotranspiration and soil moisture dynamics are tested and discussed.

Multi-criteria decision analysis using hydrological indicators for decision support - a conceptual framework.

Science.gov (United States)

Butchart-Kuhlmann, Daniel; Kralisch, Sven; Meinhardt, Markus; Fleischer, Melanie

2017-04-01

Assessing the quantity and quality of water available in water stressed environments under various potential climate and land-use changes is necessary for good water and environmental resources management and governance. Within the region covered by the Southern African Science Service Centre for Climate Change and Adaptive Land Management (SASSCAL) project, such areas are common. One goal of the SASSCAL project is to develop and provide an integrated decision support system (DSS) with which decision makers (DMs) within a given catchment can obtain objective information regarding potential changes in water flow quantity and timing. The SASSCAL DSS builds upon existing data storage and distribution capability, through the SASSCAL Information System (IS), as well as the J2000 hydrological model. Using output from validated J2000 models, the SASSCAL DSS incorporates the calculation of a range of hydrological indicators based upon Indicators of Hydrological Alteration/Environmental Flow Components (IHA/EFC) calculated for a historic time series (pre-impact) and a set of model simulations based upon a selection of possible climate and land-use change scenarios (post-impact). These indicators, obtained using the IHA software package, are then used as input for a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) undertaken using the open source diviz software package. The results of these analyses will provide DMs with an indication as to how various hydrological indicators within a catchment may be altered under different future scenarios, as well providing a ranking of how each scenario is preferred according to different DM preferences. Scenarios are represented through a combination of model input data and parameter settings in J2000, and preferences are represented through criteria weighting in the MCDA. Here, the methodology is presented and applied to the J2000 Luanginga model results using a set of hypothetical decision maker preference values as input for an MCDA based on

Hydrological system dynamics of glaciated Karnali River Basin Nepal Himalaya using J2000 Hydrological model

Science.gov (United States)

Khatiwada, K. R.; Nepal, S.; Panthi, J., Sr.; Shrestha, M.

2015-12-01

Hydrological modelling plays an important role in understanding hydrological processes of a catchment. In the context of climate change, the understanding of hydrological characteristic of the catchment is very vital to understand how the climate change will affect the hydrological regime. This research facilitates in better understanding of the hydrological system dynamics of a himalayan mountainous catchment in western Nepal. The Karnali River, longest river flowing inside Nepal, is one of the three major basins of Nepal, having the area of 45269 sq. km. is unique. The basin has steep topography and high mountains to the northern side. The 40% of the basin is dominated by forest land while other land cover are: grass land, bare rocky land etc. About 2% of the areas in basin is covered by permanent glacier apart from that about 12% of basin has the snow and ice cover. There are 34 meteorological stations distributed across the basin. A process oriented distributed J2000 hydrologial model has been applied to understand the hydrological system dynamics. The model application provides distributed output of various hydrological components. The J2000 model applies Hydrological Response Unit (HRU) as a modelling entity. With 6861 HRU and 1010 reaches, the model was calibrated (1981-1999) and validated (2000-2004) at a daily scale using split-sample test. The model is able to capture the overall hydrological dynamics well. The rising limbs and recession limbs are simulated equally and with satisfactory ground water conditions. Based on the graphical and statistical evaluation of the model performance the model is able to simulate hydrological processes fairly well. Calibration shows that Nash Sutcliffe efficiency is 0.91, coefficient of determination is 0.92 Initial observation shows that during the pre-monsoon season(March to May) the glacial runoff is 25% of the total discharge while in the monsoon(June to September) season it is only 13%. The surface runoff

Modeling urbanized watershed flood response changes with distributed hydrological model: key hydrological processes, parameterization and case studies

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Y.

2017-12-01

Urbanization is the world development trend for the past century, and the developing countries have been experiencing much rapider urbanization in the past decades. Urbanization brings many benefits to human beings, but also causes negative impacts, such as increasing flood risk. Impact of urbanization on flood response has long been observed, but quantitatively studying this effect still faces great challenges. For example, setting up an appropriate hydrological model representing the changed flood responses and determining accurate model parameters are very difficult in the urbanized or urbanizing watershed. In the Pearl River Delta area, rapidest urbanization has been observed in China for the past decades, and dozens of highly urbanized watersheds have been appeared. In this study, a physically based distributed watershed hydrological model, the Liuxihe model is employed and revised to simulate the hydrological processes of the highly urbanized watershed flood in the Pearl River Delta area. A virtual soil type is then defined in the terrain properties dataset, and its runoff production and routing algorithms are added to the Liuxihe model. Based on a parameter sensitive analysis, the key hydrological processes of a highly urbanized watershed is proposed, that provides insight into the hydrological processes and for parameter optimization. Based on the above analysis, the model is set up in the Songmushan watershed where there is hydrological data observation. A model parameter optimization and updating strategy is proposed based on the remotely sensed LUC types, which optimizes model parameters with PSO algorithm and updates them based on the changed LUC types. The model parameters in Songmushan watershed are regionalized at the Pearl River Delta area watersheds based on the LUC types of the other watersheds. A dozen watersheds in the highly urbanized area of Dongguan City in the Pearl River Delta area were studied for the flood response changes due to

Coupled hydrological-mechanical effects due to excavation of underground openings in unsaturated fractured rocks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Montazer, P.

1985-01-01

One of the effects of excavating an underground opening in fractured rocks is a modification of the state of the stress in the rock mass in the vicinity of the opening. This effect causes changes in the geometry of the cross sections of the fracture planes, which in turn results in modification of the hydrologic properties of the fractures of the rock mass. The significance of the orientation of the fractures and their stiffness on the extent of the modification of the hydrologic properties as a result of excavation of underground openings is demonstrated. A conceptual model is presented to illustrate the complexity of the coupled hydrological-mechanical phenomena in the unsaturated zone. This conceptual model is used to develop an investigative program to assess the extent of the effect at a proposed repository site for storing high-level nuclear wastes

iTree-Hydro: Snow hydrology update for the urban forest hydrology model

Science.gov (United States)

Yang Yang; Theodore A. Endreny; David J. Nowak

2011-01-01

This article presents snow hydrology updates made to iTree-Hydro, previously called the Urban Forest Effects—Hydrology model. iTree-Hydro Version 1 was a warm climate model developed by the USDA Forest Service to provide a process-based planning tool with robust water quantity and quality predictions given data limitations common to most urban areas. Cold climate...

Hydrological functioning of West-African inland valleys explored with a critical zone model

Science.gov (United States)

Hector, B.; Cohard, J. M.; Séguis, L.; Peugeot, C.; Galle, S.

2017-12-01

In west Africa, recurrent floods are still a major issue, and hydropower has been recognized as an important development pathway. Furthermore, inland valleys carry an important agronomic potential, which could meet the necessary increase of the crop production associated with the strong demographic rates of the region. This can lead to land cover and subsequent hydrologic changes. However, the hydrological role of the inland valleys in the humid, hard rock-dominated Sudanian area is not yet well understood, specifically for streamflow (Q) generation processes. We address both the questions of the hydrological functioning of inland valleys in the Sudanian area of West-Africa and the impact of land cover changes on these systems through deterministic sensitivity experiments using a physically-based critical zone model (ParFlow-CLM) applied on a synthetic catchment which comprises an inland valley. The conceptual lithological/pedological model for the catchment includes the main features of such a hydrological elementary unit derived from the literature and from a previously published model based on data from a highly instrumented elementary catchment. Model forcings and parameters are based on data from the AMMA-CATCH observation service and multiple field experiments. We found yearly water budgets were much more sensitive to vegetation distribution than lithology features of the inland valley (presence of the low permeability layer commonly found below the inland valley and the hydrodynamic properties of upstream and lateral areas). Yearly evapotranspiration budget between a fully tree-covered and an herbaceous-covered catchment increases between 6 and 21% of the precipitation of the year (depending on the tested cases) which reduces considerably the yearly streamflow budgets ( 30%). On the other hand, the lithology distribution has clear impacts on the spatial distribution of water storage dynamics.

Subdivision of Texas watersheds for hydrologic modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

2009-06-01

The purpose of this report is to present a set of findings and examples for subdivision of watersheds for hydrologic modeling. Three approaches were used to examine the impact of watershed subdivision on modeled hydrologic response: (1) An equal-area...

The development of a surface hydrology model for use in radiological safety assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Little, R.H.; Ashton, J.

1991-01-01

A detailed understanding and quantification of geosphere and biosphere water movements is vital when assessing the impact of a radioactive waste repository. Not only is water important in the transport of radionuclides from the repository into the geosphere and hence into the biosphere, but it is also important in the transport of radionuclides within the biosphere and their transport to humans. Although geosphere water fluxes have traditionally been rigorously quantified, the quantification of biosphere water fluxes has been far less rigorous. In order to redress the balance, Associated Nuclear Services Ltd (ANS) have proposed to develop a surface hydrology model for use within radiological assessments undertaken by Her Majesty's Inspectorate of Pollution (HMIP) of the United Kingdom Department of the Environment (UKDoE). It is proposed that the deterministic, lumped, quasi-physical/semi-empirical approach of conceptual models should be adopted for the model. The model will be sufficiently flexible to be applicable to a wide range of catchments, as well as a variety of temporal and spatial scales. It is envisaged that the model will have a variety of uses within the HMIP assessment methodology including the identification of significant surface hydrological processes, the provision of input data for assessment codes and the study of the biosphere-geosphere interface. (17 refs., 4 figs.)

Conceptual Model for Simulating the Adjustments of Bankfull Characteristics in the Lower Yellow River, China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yuanjian Wang

2014-01-01

Full Text Available We present a conceptual model for simulating the temporal adjustments in the banks of the Lower Yellow River (LYR. Basic conservation equations for mass, friction, and sediment transport capacity and the Exner equation were adopted to simulate the hydrodynamics underlying fluvial processes. The relationship between changing rates in bankfull width and depth, derived from quasiuniversal hydraulic geometries, was used as a closure for the hydrodynamic equations. On inputting the daily flow discharge and sediment load, the conceptual model successfully simulated the 30-year adjustments in the bankfull geometries of typical reaches of the LYR. The square of the correlating coefficient reached 0.74 for Huayuankou Station in the multiple-thread reach and exceeded 0.90 for Lijin Station in the meandering reach. This proposed model allows multiple dependent variables and the input of daily hydrological data for long-term simulations. This links the hydrodynamic and geomorphic processes in a fluvial river and has potential applicability to fluvial rivers undergoing significant adjustments.

Do we really use rainfall observations consistent with reality in hydrological modelling?

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Ciampalini, Rossano; Follain, Stéphane; Raclot, Damien; Crabit, Armand; Pastor, Amandine; Moussa, Roger; Le Bissonnais, Yves

2017-04-01

Spatial and temporal patterns in rainfall control how water reaches soil surface and interacts with soil properties (i.e., soil wetting, infiltration, saturation). Once a hydrological event is defined by a rainfall with its spatiotemporal variability and by some environmental parameters such as soil properties (including land use, topographic and anthropic features), the evidence shows that each parameter variation produces different, specific outputs (e.g., runoff, flooding etc.). In this study, we focus on the effect of rainfall patterns because, due to the difficulty to dispose of detailed data, their influence in modelling is frequently underestimated or neglected. A rainfall event affects a catchment non uniformly, it is spatially localized and its pattern moves in space and time. The way and the time how the water reaches the soil and saturates it respect to the geometry of the catchment deeply influences soil saturation, runoff, and then sediment delivery. This research, approaching a hypothetical, simple case, aims to stimulate the debate on the reliability of the rainfall quality used in hydrological / soil erosion modelling. We test on a small catchment of the south of France (Roujan, Languedoc Roussillon) the influence of rainfall variability with the use of a HD hybrid hydrological - soil erosion model, combining a cinematic wave with the St. Venant equation and a simplified "bucket" conceptual model for ground water, able to quantify the effect of different spatiotemporal patterns of a very-high-definition synthetic rainfall. Results indicate that rainfall spatiotemporal patterns are crucial simulating an erosive event: differences between spatially uniform rainfalls, as frequently adopted in simulations, and some hypothetical rainfall patterns here applied, reveal that the outcome of a simulated event can be highly underestimated.

Simulation of green roof runoff under different substrate depths and vegetation covers by coupling a simple conceptual and a physically based hydrological model.

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Soulis, Konstantinos X; Valiantzas, John D; Ntoulas, Nikolaos; Kargas, George; Nektarios, Panayiotis A

2017-09-15

In spite of the well-known green roof benefits, their widespread adoption in the management practices of urban drainage systems requires the use of adequate analytical and modelling tools. In the current study, green roof runoff modeling was accomplished by developing, testing, and jointly using a simple conceptual model and a physically based numerical simulation model utilizing HYDRUS-1D software. The use of such an approach combines the advantages of the conceptual model, namely simplicity, low computational requirements, and ability to be easily integrated in decision support tools with the capacity of the physically based simulation model to be easily transferred in conditions and locations other than those used for calibrating and validating it. The proposed approach was evaluated with an experimental dataset that included various green roof covers (either succulent plants - Sedum sediforme, or xerophytic plants - Origanum onites, or bare substrate without any vegetation) and two substrate depths (either 8 cm or 16 cm). Both the physically based and the conceptual models matched very closely the observed hydrographs. In general, the conceptual model performed better than the physically based simulation model but the overall performance of both models was sufficient in most cases as it is revealed by the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency index which was generally greater than 0.70. Finally, it was showcased how a physically based and a simple conceptual model can be jointly used to allow the use of the simple conceptual model for a wider set of conditions than the available experimental data and in order to support green roof design. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling the Hydrological Regime of Turkana Lake (Kenya, Ethiopia) by Combining Spatially Distributed Hydrological Modeling and Remote Sensing Datasets

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Anghileri, D.; Kaelin, A.; Peleg, N.; Fatichi, S.; Molnar, P.; Roques, C.; Longuevergne, L.; Burlando, P.

2017-12-01

Hydrological modeling in poorly gauged basins can benefit from the use of remote sensing datasets although there are challenges associated with the mismatch in spatial and temporal scales between catchment scale hydrological models and remote sensing products. We model the hydrological processes and long-term water budget of the Lake Turkana catchment, a transboundary basin between Kenya and Ethiopia, by integrating several remote sensing products into a spatially distributed and physically explicit model, Topkapi-ETH. Lake Turkana is the world largest desert lake draining a catchment of 145'500 km2. It has three main contributing rivers: the Omo river, which contributes most of the annual lake inflow, the Turkwel river, and the Kerio rivers, which contribute the remaining part. The lake levels have shown great variations in the last decades due to long-term climate fluctuations and the regulation of three reservoirs, Gibe I, II, and III, which significantly alter the hydrological seasonality. Another large reservoir is planned and may be built in the next decade, generating concerns about the fate of Lake Turkana in the long run because of this additional anthropogenic pressure and increasing evaporation driven by climate change. We consider different remote sensing datasets, i.e., TRMM-V7 for precipitation, MERRA-2 for temperature, as inputs to the spatially distributed hydrological model. We validate the simulation results with other remote sensing datasets, i.e., GRACE for total water storage anomalies, GLDAS-NOAH for soil moisture, ERA-Interim/Land for surface runoff, and TOPEX/Poseidon for satellite altimetry data. Results highlight how different remote sensing products can be integrated into a hydrological modeling framework accounting for their relative uncertainties. We also carried out simulations with the artificial reservoirs planned in the north part of the catchment and without any reservoirs, to assess their impacts on the catchment hydrological

Hydrologic modeling of the Columbia Plateau basalts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dove, F.H.; Cole, C.R.; Bond, F.W.; Zimmerman, D.A.

1982-09-01

The Office of Nuclear Waste Isolation (ONWI) directed the Assessment of Effectiveness of Geologic Isolation Systems (AEGIS) Program to conduct a technology demonstration of current performance assessment techniques for the Department of Energy (DOE) as applied to a nuclear waste repository in the Columbia Plateau Basalts. Hypothetical repository coordinates were selected for an actual geographical setting on the Hanford Reservation in the state of Washington. Published hydrologic and geologic data used in the analyses were gathered in 1979 or earlier. The hydrologic simulation was divided into three major parts: (1) aquifer recharge calculations, (2) a regional hydrologic model, and (3) a local hydrologic model of the Pasco Basin. The presentation discusses the regional model. An estimate of the amount of water transmitted through the groundwater system was required to bound the transmissivity values and to estimate the transmissivity distributions for the deeper basalts. The multiple layer two-dimensional Variable Thickness Transient (VTT) code was selected as appropriate for the amount of data available and for the conditions existing in the regional systems. This model uses a finite difference formulation to represent the partial differential flow equation. The regional study area as defined for the VTT model was divided into 55 by 55 square pattern with each grid 5 kilometers on a side. The regional system was modeled as a held potential surface layer and two underlying basalt layers. The regional model established the boundary conditions for the hydrologic model the Pasco Basin

The conceptualization model problem—surprise

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Bredehoeft, John

2005-03-01

The foundation of model analysis is the conceptual model. Surprise is defined as new data that renders the prevailing conceptual model invalid; as defined here it represents a paradigm shift. Limited empirical data indicate that surprises occur in 20-30% of model analyses. These data suggest that groundwater analysts have difficulty selecting the appropriate conceptual model. There is no ready remedy to the conceptual model problem other than (1) to collect as much data as is feasible, using all applicable methods—a complementary data collection methodology can lead to new information that changes the prevailing conceptual model, and (2) for the analyst to remain open to the fact that the conceptual model can change dramatically as more information is collected. In the final analysis, the hydrogeologist makes a subjective decision on the appropriate conceptual model. The conceptualization problem does not render models unusable. The problem introduces an uncertainty that often is not widely recognized. Conceptual model uncertainty is exacerbated in making long-term predictions of system performance. C'est le modèle conceptuel qui se trouve à base d'une analyse sur un modèle. On considère comme une surprise lorsque le modèle est invalidé par des données nouvelles; dans les termes définis ici la surprise est équivalente à un change de paradigme. Des données empiriques limitées indiquent que les surprises apparaissent dans 20 à 30% des analyses effectuées sur les modèles. Ces données suggèrent que l'analyse des eaux souterraines présente des difficultés lorsqu'il s'agit de choisir le modèle conceptuel approprié. Il n'existe pas un autre remède au problème du modèle conceptuel que: (1) rassembler autant des données que possible en utilisant toutes les méthodes applicables—la méthode des données complémentaires peut conduire aux nouvelles informations qui vont changer le modèle conceptuel, et (2) l'analyste doit rester ouvert au fait

Advancing the Implementation of Hydrologic Models as Web-based Applications

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Dahal, P.; Tarboton, D. G.; Castronova, A. M.

2017-12-01

Advanced computer simulations are required to understand hydrologic phenomenon such as rainfall-runoff response, groundwater hydrology, snow hydrology, etc. Building a hydrologic model instance to simulate a watershed requires investment in data (diverse geospatial datasets such as terrain, soil) and computer resources, typically demands a wide skill set from the analyst, and the workflow involved is often difficult to reproduce. This work introduces a web-based prototype infrastructure in the form of a web application that provides researchers with easy to use access to complete hydrological modeling functionality. This includes creating the necessary geospatial and forcing data, preparing input files for a model by applying complex data preprocessing, running the model for a user defined watershed, and saving the results to a web repository. The open source Tethys Platform was used to develop the web app front-end Graphical User Interface (GUI). We used HydroDS, a webservice that provides data preparation processing capability to support backend computations used by the app. Results are saved in HydroShare, a hydrologic information system that supports the sharing of hydrologic data, model and analysis tools. The TOPographic Kinematic APproximation and Integration (TOPKAPI) model served as the example for which we developed a complete hydrologic modeling service to demonstrate the approach. The final product is a complete modeling system accessible through the web to create input files, and run the TOPKAPI hydrologic model for a watershed of interest. We are investigating similar functionality for the preparation of input to Regional Hydro-Ecological Simulation System (RHESSys). Key Words: hydrologic modeling, web services, hydrologic information system, HydroShare, HydroDS, Tethys Platform

Coupling Hydrologic and Hydrodynamic Models to Estimate PMF

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Felder, G.; Weingartner, R.

2015-12-01

Most sophisticated probable maximum flood (PMF) estimations derive the PMF from the probable maximum precipitation (PMP) by applying deterministic hydrologic models calibrated with observed data. This method is based on the assumption that the hydrological system is stationary, meaning that the system behaviour during the calibration period or the calibration event is presumed to be the same as it is during the PMF. However, as soon as a catchment-specific threshold is reached, the system is no longer stationary. At or beyond this threshold, retention areas, new flow paths, and changing runoff processes can strongly affect downstream peak discharge. These effects can be accounted for by coupling hydrologic and hydrodynamic models, a technique that is particularly promising when the expected peak discharge may considerably exceed the observed maximum discharge. In such cases, the coupling of hydrologic and hydraulic models has the potential to significantly increase the physical plausibility of PMF estimations. This procedure ensures both that the estimated extreme peak discharge does not exceed the physical limit based on riverbed capacity and that the dampening effect of inundation processes on peak discharge is considered. Our study discusses the prospect of considering retention effects on PMF estimations by coupling hydrologic and hydrodynamic models. This method is tested by forcing PREVAH, a semi-distributed deterministic hydrological model, with randomly generated, physically plausible extreme precipitation patterns. The resulting hydrographs are then used to externally force the hydraulic model BASEMENT-ETH (riverbed in 1D, potential inundation areas in 2D). Finally, the PMF estimation results obtained using the coupled modelling approach are compared to the results obtained using ordinary hydrologic modelling.

Our evolving conceptual model of the coastal eutrophication problem

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Cloern, James E.

2001-01-01

A primary focus of coastal science during the past 3 decades has been the question: How does anthropogenic nutrient enrichment cause change in the structure or function of nearshore coastal ecosystems? This theme of environmental science is recent, so our conceptual model of the coastal eutrophication problem continues to change rapidly. In this review, I suggest that the early (Phase I) conceptual model was strongly influenced by limnologists, who began intense study of lake eutrophication by the 1960s. The Phase I model emphasized changing nutrient input as a signal, and responses to that signal as increased phytoplankton biomass and primary production, decomposition of phytoplankton-derived organic matter, and enhanced depletion of oxygen from bottom waters. Coastal research in recent decades has identified key differences in the responses of lakes and coastal-estuarine ecosystems to nutrient enrichment. The contemporary (Phase II) conceptual model reflects those differences and includes explicit recognition of (1) system-specific attributes that act as a filter to modulate the responses to enrichment (leading to large differences among estuarine-coastal systems in their sensitivity to nutrient enrichment); and (2) a complex suite of direct and indirect responses including linked changes in: water transparency, distribution of vascular plants and biomass of macroalgae, sediment biogeochemistry and nutrient cycling, nutrient ratios and their regulation of phytoplankton community composition, frequency of toxic/harmful algal blooms, habitat quality for metazoans, reproduction/growth/survival of pelagic and benthic invertebrates, and subtle changes such as shifts in the seasonality of ecosystem functions. Each aspect of the Phase II model is illustrated here with examples from coastal ecosystems around the world. In the last section of this review I present one vision of the next (Phase III) stage in the evolution of our conceptual model, organized around 5

Open source data assimilation framework for hydrological modeling

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Ridler, Marc; Hummel, Stef; van Velzen, Nils; Katrine Falk, Anne; Madsen, Henrik

2013-04-01

An open-source data assimilation framework is proposed for hydrological modeling. Data assimilation (DA) in hydrodynamic and hydrological forecasting systems has great potential to improve predictions and improve model result. The basic principle is to incorporate measurement information into a model with the aim to improve model results by error minimization. Great strides have been made to assimilate traditional in-situ measurements such as discharge, soil moisture, hydraulic head and snowpack into hydrologic models. More recently, remotely sensed data retrievals of soil moisture, snow water equivalent or snow cover area, surface water elevation, terrestrial water storage and land surface temperature have been successfully assimilated in hydrological models. The assimilation algorithms have become increasingly sophisticated to manage measurement and model bias, non-linear systems, data sparsity (time & space) and undetermined system uncertainty. It is therefore useful to use a pre-existing DA toolbox such as OpenDA. OpenDA is an open interface standard for (and free implementation of) a set of tools to quickly implement DA and calibration for arbitrary numerical models. The basic design philosophy of OpenDA is to breakdown DA into a set of building blocks programmed in object oriented languages. To implement DA, a model must interact with OpenDA to create model instances, propagate the model, get/set variables (or parameters) and free the model once DA is completed. An open-source interface for hydrological models exists capable of all these tasks: OpenMI. OpenMI is an open source standard interface already adopted by key hydrological model providers. It defines a universal approach to interact with hydrological models during simulation to exchange data during runtime, thus facilitating the interactions between models and data sources. The interface is flexible enough so that models can interact even if the model is coded in a different language, represent

Integrating hydrologic modeling web services with online data sharing to prepare, store, and execute models in hydrology

Science.gov (United States)

Gan, T.; Tarboton, D. G.; Dash, P. K.; Gichamo, T.; Horsburgh, J. S.

2017-12-01

Web based apps, web services and online data and model sharing technology are becoming increasingly available to support research. This promises benefits in terms of collaboration, platform independence, transparency and reproducibility of modeling workflows and results. However, challenges still exist in real application of these capabilities and the programming skills researchers need to use them. In this research we combined hydrologic modeling web services with an online data and model sharing system to develop functionality to support reproducible hydrologic modeling work. We used HydroDS, a system that provides web services for input data preparation and execution of a snowmelt model, and HydroShare, a hydrologic information system that supports the sharing of hydrologic data, model and analysis tools. To make the web services easy to use, we developed a HydroShare app (based on the Tethys platform) to serve as a browser based user interface for HydroDS. In this integration, HydroDS receives web requests from the HydroShare app to process the data and execute the model. HydroShare supports storage and sharing of the results generated by HydroDS web services. The snowmelt modeling example served as a use case to test and evaluate this approach. We show that, after the integration, users can prepare model inputs or execute the model through the web user interface of the HydroShare app without writing program code. The model input/output files and metadata describing the model instance are stored and shared in HydroShare. These files include a Python script that is automatically generated by the HydroShare app to document and reproduce the model input preparation workflow. Once stored in HydroShare, inputs and results can be shared with other users, or published so that other users can directly discover, repeat or modify the modeling work. This approach provides a collaborative environment that integrates hydrologic web services with a data and model sharing

Blueprint for a coupled model of sedimentology, hydrology, and hydrogeology in streambeds

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Partington, Daniel; Therrien, Rene; Simmons, Craig T.; Brunner, Philip

2017-06-01

The streambed constitutes the physical interface between the surface and the subsurface of a stream. Across all spatial scales, the physical properties of the streambed control surface water-groundwater interactions. Continuous alteration of streambed properties such as topography or hydraulic conductivity occurs through erosion and sedimentation processes. Recent studies from the fields of ecology, hydrogeology, and sedimentology provide field evidence that sedimentological processes themselves can be heavily influenced by surface water-groundwater interactions, giving rise to complex feedback mechanisms between sedimentology, hydrology, and hydrogeology. More explicitly, surface water-groundwater exchanges play a significant role in the deposition of fine sediments, which in turn modify the hydraulic properties of the streambed. We explore these feedback mechanisms and critically review the extent of current interaction between the different disciplines. We identify opportunities to improve current modeling practices. For example, hydrogeological models treat the streambed as a static rather than a dynamic entity, while sedimentological models do not account for critical catchment processes such as surface water-groundwater exchange. We propose a blueprint for a new modeling framework that bridges the conceptual gaps between sedimentology, hydrogeology, and hydrology. Specifically, this blueprint (1) fully integrates surface-subsurface flows with erosion, transport, and deposition of sediments and (2) accounts for the dynamic changes in surface elevation and hydraulic conductivity of the streambed. Finally, we discuss the opportunities for new research within the coupled framework.

Multi-model analysis in hydrological prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Lanthier, M.; Arsenault, R.; Brissette, F.

2017-12-01

Hydrologic modelling, by nature, is a simplification of the real-world hydrologic system. Therefore ensemble hydrological predictions thus obtained do not present the full range of possible streamflow outcomes, thereby producing ensembles which demonstrate errors in variance such as under-dispersion. Past studies show that lumped models used in prediction mode can return satisfactory results, especially when there is not enough information available on the watershed to run a distributed model. But all lumped models greatly simplify the complex processes of the hydrologic cycle. To generate more spread in the hydrologic ensemble predictions, multi-model ensembles have been considered. In this study, the aim is to propose and analyse a method that gives an ensemble streamflow prediction that properly represents the forecast probabilities and reduced ensemble bias. To achieve this, three simple lumped models are used to generate an ensemble. These will also be combined using multi-model averaging techniques, which generally generate a more accurate hydrogram than the best of the individual models in simulation mode. This new predictive combined hydrogram is added to the ensemble, thus creating a large ensemble which may improve the variability while also improving the ensemble mean bias. The quality of the predictions is then assessed on different periods: 2 weeks, 1 month, 3 months and 6 months using a PIT Histogram of the percentiles of the real observation volumes with respect to the volumes of the ensemble members. Initially, the models were run using historical weather data to generate synthetic flows. This worked for individual models, but not for the multi-model and for the large ensemble. Consequently, by performing data assimilation at each prediction period and thus adjusting the initial states of the models, the PIT Histogram could be constructed using the observed flows while allowing the use of the multi-model predictions. The under-dispersion has been

airGRteaching: an R-package designed for teaching hydrology with lumped hydrological models

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Thirel, Guillaume; Delaigue, Olivier; Coron, Laurent; Andréassian, Vazken; Brigode, Pierre

2017-04-01

Lumped hydrological models are useful and convenient tools for research, engineering and educational purposes. They propose catchment-scale representations of the precipitation-discharge relationship. Thanks to their limited data requirements, they can be easily implemented and run. With such models, it is possible to simulate a number of hydrological key processes over the catchment with limited structural and parametric complexity, typically evapotranspiration, runoff, underground losses, etc. The Hydrology Group at Irstea (Antony) has been developing a suite of rainfall-runoff models over the past 30 years. This resulted in a suite of models running at different time steps (from hourly to annual) applicable for various issues including water balance estimation, forecasting, simulation of impacts and scenario testing. Recently, Irstea has developed an easy-to-use R-package (R Core Team, 2016), called airGR (Coron et al., 2016, 2017), to make these models widely available. Although its initial target public was hydrological modellers, the package is already used for educational purposes. Indeed, simple models allow for rapidly visualising the effects of parameterizations and model components on flows hydrographs. In order to avoid the difficulties that students may have when manipulating R and datasets, we developed (Delaigue and Coron, 2016): - Three simplified functions to prepare data, calibrate a model and run a simulation - Simplified and dynamic plot functions - A shiny (Chang et al., 2016) interface that connects this R-package to a browser-based visualisation tool. On this interface, the students can use different hydrological models (including the possibility to use a snow-accounting model), manually modify their parameters and automatically calibrate their parameters with diverse objective functions. One of the visualisation tabs of the interface includes observed precipitation and temperature, simulated snowpack (if any), observed and simulated

Insights about data assimilation frameworks for integrating GRACE with hydrological models

Science.gov (United States)

Schumacher, Maike; Kusche, Jürgen; Van Dijk, Albert I. J. M.; Döll, Petra; Schuh, Wolf-Dieter

2016-04-01

Improving the understanding of changes in the water cycle represents a challenging objective that requires merging information from various disciplines. Debates exist on selecting an appropriate assimilation technique to integrate GRACE-derived terrestrial water storage changes (TWSC) into hydrological models in order to downscale and disaggregate GRACE TWSC, overcome model limitations, and improve monitoring and forecast skills. Yet, the effect of the specific data assimilation technique in conjunction with ill-conditioning, colored noise, resolution mismatch between GRACE and model, and other complications is still unclear. Due to its simplicity, ensemble Kalman filters or smoothers (EnKF/S) are often applied. In this study, we show that modification of the filter approach might open new avenues to improve the integration process. Particularly, we discuss an improved calibration and data assimilation (C/DA) framework (Schumacher et al., 2016), which is based on the EnKF and was extended by the square root analysis scheme (SQRA) and the singular evolutive interpolated Kalman (SEIK) filter. In addition, we discuss an off-line data blending approach (Van Dijk et al., 2014) that offers the chance to merge multi-model ensembles with GRACE observations. The investigations include: (i) a theoretical comparison, focusing on similarities and differences of the conceptual formulation of the filter algorithms, (ii) a practical comparison, for which the approaches were applied to an ensemble of runs of the WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model (WGHM), as well as (iii) an impact assessment of the GRACE error structure on C/DA results. First, a synthetic experiment over the Mississippi River Basin (USA) was used to gain insights about the C/DA set-up before applying it to real data. The results indicated promising performances when considering alternative methods, e.g. applying the SEIK algorithm improved the correlation coefficient and root mean square error (RMSE) of TWSC by 0

Nonisothermal hydrologic transport experimental plan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rasmussen, T.C.; Evans, D.D.

1992-09-01

A field heater experimental plan is presented for investigating hydrologic transport processes in unsaturated fractured rock related to the disposal of high-level radioactive waste (HLW) in an underground repository. The experimental plan provides a methodology for obtaining data required for evaluating conceptual and computer models related to HLW isolation in an environment where significant heat energy is produced. Coupled-process models are currently limited by the lack of validation data appropriate for field scales that incorporate relevant transport processes. Presented in this document is a discussion of previous nonisothermal experiments. Processes expected to dominate heat-driven liquid, vapor, gas, and solute flow during the experiment are explained, and the conceptual model for nonisothermal flow and transport in unsaturated, fractured rock is described. Of particular concern is the ability to confirm the hypothesized conceptual model specifically, the establishment of higher water saturation zones within the host rock around the heat source, and the establishment of countercurrent flow conditions within the host rock near the heat source. Field experimental plans are presented using the Apache Leap Tuff Site to illustrate the implementation of the proposed methodology. Both small-scale preliminary experiments and a long-term experiment are described

Spatially Distributed Assimilation of Remotely Sensed Leaf Area Index and Potential Evapotranspiration for Hydrologic Modeling in Wetland Landscapes

Science.gov (United States)

Rajib, A.; Evenson, G. R.; Golden, H. E.; Lane, C.

2017-12-01

Evapotranspiration (ET), a highly dynamic flux in wetland landscapes, regulates the accuracy of surface/sub-surface runoff simulation in a hydrologic model. Accordingly, considerable uncertainty in simulating ET-related processes remains, including our limited ability to incorporate realistic ground conditions, particularly those involved with complex land-atmosphere feedbacks, vegetation growth, and energy balances. Uncertainty persists despite using high resolution topography and/or detailed land use data. Thus, a good hydrologic model can produce right answers for wrong reasons. In this study, we develop an efficient approach for multi-variable assimilation of remotely sensed earth observations (EOs) into a hydrologic model and apply it in the 1700 km2 Pipestem Creek watershed in the Prairie Pothole Region of North Dakota, USA. Our goal is to employ EOs, specifically Leaf Area Index (LAI) and Potential Evapotranspiration (PET), as surrogates for the aforementioned processes without overruling the model's built-in physical/semi-empirical process conceptualizations. To do this, we modified the source code of an already-improved version of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for wetland hydrology (Evenson et al. 2016 HP 30(22):4168) to directly assimilate remotely-sensed LAI and PET (obtained from the 500 m and 1 km Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) gridded products, respectively) into each model Hydrologic Response Unit (HRU). Two configurations of the model, one with and one without EO assimilation, are calibrated against streamflow observations at the watershed outlet. Spatio-temporal changes in the HRU-level water balance, based on calibrated outputs, are evaluated using MODIS Actual Evapotranspiration (AET) as a reference. It is expected that the model configuration having remotely sensed LAI and PET, will simulate more realistic land-atmosphere feedbacks, vegetation growth and energy balance. As a result, this will decrease simulated

Cyberinfrastructure to Support Collaborative and Reproducible Computational Hydrologic Modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Goodall, J. L.; Castronova, A. M.; Bandaragoda, C.; Morsy, M. M.; Sadler, J. M.; Essawy, B.; Tarboton, D. G.; Malik, T.; Nijssen, B.; Clark, M. P.; Liu, Y.; Wang, S. W.

2017-12-01

Creating cyberinfrastructure to support reproducibility of computational hydrologic models is an important research challenge. Addressing this challenge requires open and reusable code and data with machine and human readable metadata, organized in ways that allow others to replicate results and verify published findings. Specific digital objects that must be tracked for reproducible computational hydrologic modeling include (1) raw initial datasets, (2) data processing scripts used to clean and organize the data, (3) processed model inputs, (4) model results, and (5) the model code with an itemization of all software dependencies and computational requirements. HydroShare is a cyberinfrastructure under active development designed to help users store, share, and publish digital research products in order to improve reproducibility in computational hydrology, with an architecture supporting hydrologic-specific resource metadata. Researchers can upload data required for modeling, add hydrology-specific metadata to these resources, and use the data directly within HydroShare.org for collaborative modeling using tools like CyberGIS, Sciunit-CLI, and JupyterHub that have been integrated with HydroShare to run models using notebooks, Docker containers, and cloud resources. Current research aims to implement the Structure For Unifying Multiple Modeling Alternatives (SUMMA) hydrologic model within HydroShare to support hypothesis-driven hydrologic modeling while also taking advantage of the HydroShare cyberinfrastructure. The goal of this integration is to create the cyberinfrastructure that supports hypothesis-driven model experimentation, education, and training efforts by lowering barriers to entry, reducing the time spent on informatics technology and software development, and supporting collaborative research within and across research groups.

Revisiting an interdisciplinary hydrological modelling project. A socio-hydrology (?) example from the early 2000s

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Seidl, Roman; Barthel, Roland

2016-04-01

Interdisciplinary scientific and societal knowledge plays an increasingly important role in global change research. Also, in the field of water resources interdisciplinarity as well as cooperation with stakeholders from outside academia have been recognized as important. In this contribution, we revisit an integrated regional modelling system (DANUBIA), which was developed by an interdisciplinary team of researchers and relied on stakeholder participation in the framework of the GLOWA-Danube project from 2001 to 2011 (Mauser and Prasch 2016). As the model was developed before the current increase in literature on participatory modelling and interdisciplinarity, we ask how a socio-hydrology approach would have helped and in what way it would have made the work different. The present contribution firstly presents the interdisciplinary concept of DANUBIA, mainly with focus on the integration of human behaviour in a spatially explicit, process-based numerical modelling system (Roland Barthel, Janisch, Schwarz, Trifkovic, Nickel, Schulz, and Mauser 2008; R. Barthel, Nickel, Meleg, Trifkovic, and Braun 2005). Secondly, we compare the approaches to interdisciplinarity in GLOWA-Danube with concepts and ideas presented by socio-hydrology. Thirdly, we frame DANUBIA and a review of key literature on socio-hydrology in the context of a survey among hydrologists (N = 184). This discussion is used to highlight gaps and opportunities of the socio-hydrology approach. We show that the interdisciplinary aspect of the project and the participatory process of stakeholder integration in DANUBIA were not entirely successful. However, important insights were gained and important lessons were learnt. Against the background of these experiences we feel that in its current state, socio-hydrology is still lacking a plan for knowledge integration. Moreover, we consider necessary that socio-hydrology takes into account the lessons learnt from these earlier examples of knowledge integration

The relation between geometry, hydrology and stability of complex hillslopes examined using low-dimensional hydrological models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Talebi, A.

2008-01-01

Key words: Hillslope geometry, Hillslope hydrology, Hillslope stability, Complex hillslopes, Modeling shallow landslides, HSB model, HSB-SM model.

The hydrologic response of a hillslope to rainfall involves a complex, transient saturated-unsaturated interaction that usually leads to a

Macroscale hydrologic modeling of ecologically relevant flow metrics

Science.gov (United States)

Wenger, Seth J.; Luce, Charles H.; Hamlet, Alan F.; Isaak, Daniel J.; Neville, Helen M.

2010-09-01

Stream hydrology strongly affects the structure of aquatic communities. Changes to air temperature and precipitation driven by increased greenhouse gas concentrations are shifting timing and volume of streamflows potentially affecting these communities. The variable infiltration capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrologic model has been employed at regional scales to describe and forecast hydrologic changes but has been calibrated and applied mainly to large rivers. An important question is how well VIC runoff simulations serve to answer questions about hydrologic changes in smaller streams, which are important habitat for many fish species. To answer this question, we aggregated gridded VIC outputs within the drainage basins of 55 streamflow gages in the Pacific Northwest United States and compared modeled hydrographs and summary metrics to observations. For most streams, several ecologically relevant aspects of the hydrologic regime were accurately modeled, including center of flow timing, mean annual and summer flows and frequency of winter floods. Frequencies of high and low flows in the summer were not well predicted, however. Predictions were worse for sites with strong groundwater influence, and some sites showed errors that may result from limitations in the forcing climate data. Higher resolution (1/16th degree) modeling provided small improvements over lower resolution (1/8th degree). Despite some limitations, the VIC model appears capable of representing several ecologically relevant hydrologic characteristics in streams, making it a useful tool for understanding the effects of hydrology in delimiting species distributions and predicting the potential effects of climate shifts on aquatic organisms.

Green roof rainfall-runoff modelling: is the comparison between conceptual and physically based approaches relevant?

Science.gov (United States)

Versini, Pierre-Antoine; Tchiguirinskaia, Ioulia; Schertzer, Daniel

2017-04-01

Green roofs are commonly considered as efficient tools to mitigate urban runoff as they can store precipitation, and consequently provide retention and detention performances. Designed as a compromise between water holding capacity, weight and hydraulic conductivity, their substrate is usually an artificial media differentiating significantly from a traditional soil. In order to assess green roofs hydrological performances, many models have been developed. Classified into two categories (conceptual and physically based), they are usually applied to reproduce the discharge of a particular monitored green roof considered as homogeneous. Although the resulted simulations could be satisfactory, the question of robustness and consistency of the calibrated parameters is often not addressed. Here, a modeling framework has been developed to assess the efficiency and the robustness of both modelling approaches (conceptual and physically based) in reproducing green roof hydrological behaviour. SWMM and VS2DT models have been used for this purpose. This work also benefits from an experimental setup where several green roofs differentiated by their substrate thickness and vegetation cover are monitored. Based on the data collected for several rainfall events, it has been studied how the calibrated parameters are effectively linked to their physical properties and how they can vary from one green roof configuration to another. Although both models reproduce correctly the observed discharges in most of the cases, their calibrated parameters exhibit a high inconsistency. For a same green roof configuration, these parameters can vary significantly from one rainfall event to another, even if they are supposed to be linked to the green roof characteristics (roughness, residual moisture content for instance). They can also be different from one green roof configuration to another although the implemented substrate is the same. Finally, it appears very difficult to find any

Hydrological Modelling Using a Rainfall Simulator over an Experimental Hillslope Plot

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Arpit Chouksey

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Hydrological processes are complex to compute in hilly areas when compared to plain areas. The governing processes behind runoff generation on hillslopes are subsurface storm flow, saturation excess flow, overland flow, return flow and pipe storage. The simulations of the above processes in the soil matrix require detailed hillslope hydrological modelling. In the present study, a hillslope experimental plot has been designed to study the runoff generation processes on the plot scale. The setup is designed keeping in view the natural hillslope conditions prevailing in the Northwestern Himalayas, India where high intensity rainfall events occur frequently. A rainfall simulator was installed over the experimental hillslope plot to generate rainfall with an intensity of 100 mm/h, which represents the dominating rainfall intensity range in the region. Soil moisture sensors were also installed at variable depths from 100 to 1000 mm at different locations of the plot to observe the soil moisture regime. From the experimental observations it was found that once the soil is saturated, it remains at field capacity for the next 24–36 h. Such antecedent moisture conditions are most favorable for the generation of rapid stormflow from hillslopes. A dye infiltration test was performed on the undisturbed soil column to observe the macropore fraction variability over the vegetated hillslopes. The estimated macropore fractions are used as essential input for the hillslope hydrological model. The main objective of the present study was to develop and test a method for estimating runoff responses from natural rainfall over hillslopes of the Northwestern Himalayas using a portable rainfall simulator. Using the experimental data and the developed conceptual model, the overland flow and the subsurface flow through a macropore-dominated area have been estimated/analyzed. The surface and subsurface runoff estimated using the developed hillslope hydrological model

Land-surface modelling in hydrological perspective

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Overgaard, Jesper; Rosbjerg, Dan; Butts, M.B.

2006-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to provide a review of the different types of energy-based land-surface models (LSMs) and discuss some of the new possibilities that will arise when energy-based LSMs are combined with distributed hydrological modelling. We choose to focus on energy-based approaches......, and the difficulties inherent in various evaluation procedures are presented. Finally, the dynamic coupling of hydrological and atmospheric models is explored, and the perspectives of such efforts are discussed......., because in comparison to the traditional potential evapotranspiration models, these approaches allow for a stronger link to remote sensing and atmospheric modelling. New opportunities for evaluation of distributed land-surface models through application of remote sensing are discussed in detail...

Using hydrological modelling for a preliminary assessment of under-catch of precipitation in some Alpine Catchments of Sierra Nevada (Spain). Sensitivity to different conceptual approaches and spatio-temporal scale

Science.gov (United States)

Jimeno-Saez, Patricia; Pulido-Velazquez, David; Pegalajar-Cuellar, Manuel; Collados-Lara, Antonio-Juan; Pardo-Iguzquiza, Eulogio

2017-04-01

Precipitation (P) measurements show important biases due to under-catch, especially in windy conditions. Gauges modify the wind fields, producing important under-catch in solid P. In this work we intent to perform a global assessment of the under-catch phenomenon in some alpine catchments of Sierra Nevada Mountain Range (Spain) by using different conceptual hydrological models. They are based on the available information about daily natural streamflow and daily fields of P and temperature (T) in each catchment. We want to analyse long time periods (more than 20 years at daily scale) in order to obtain conclusions taking into account the stochastic behaviour of the natural streamflow and P and T variables. The natural streamflowin each basin has been obtained from the streamflow measurements in the gauges by making some simple mathematical operations to eliminate the anthropic influences. The daily climatic fieldswere estimated with spatial resolution of 1kmx1km by applying geostatistic techniques using data coming from 119climatic gauges existing in the area.We have considered to model options: Monthly and yearly variogram to characterize the spatial data correlation. The Elevation has been considered as secondary variable for the estimation. The analysis of the experimental data showed a linear relationhip between mean T and elevation. Therefore, we decided to apply a kriging with linear external drift to estimate the P and T fields. The mean daily P data show a quadratic relationship with the elevation. Different hypothesis have been considered to approach these P fields by applying kriging with linear drift, with quadratic drift, and regression kriging. A cross-validation analysis showed that the best approximation to the data is obtained with the kriging with linear drift. The P and T fields obtained with this technique were employed to feed different hydrological models in which different conceptual approaches of the hydrological processes related with the

Advancing Collaboration through Hydrologic Data and Model Sharing

Science.gov (United States)

Tarboton, D. G.; Idaszak, R.; Horsburgh, J. S.; Ames, D. P.; Goodall, J. L.; Band, L. E.; Merwade, V.; Couch, A.; Hooper, R. P.; Maidment, D. R.; Dash, P. K.; Stealey, M.; Yi, H.; Gan, T.; Castronova, A. M.; Miles, B.; Li, Z.; Morsy, M. M.

2015-12-01

HydroShare is an online, collaborative system for open sharing of hydrologic data, analytical tools, and models. It supports the sharing of and collaboration around "resources" which are defined primarily by standardized metadata, content data models for each resource type, and an overarching resource data model based on the Open Archives Initiative's Object Reuse and Exchange (OAI-ORE) standard and a hierarchical file packaging system called "BagIt". HydroShare expands the data sharing capability of the CUAHSI Hydrologic Information System by broadening the classes of data accommodated to include geospatial and multidimensional space-time datasets commonly used in hydrology. HydroShare also includes new capability for sharing models, model components, and analytical tools and will take advantage of emerging social media functionality to enhance information about and collaboration around hydrologic data and models. It also supports web services and server/cloud based computation operating on resources for the execution of hydrologic models and analysis and visualization of hydrologic data. HydroShare uses iRODS as a network file system for underlying storage of datasets and models. Collaboration is enabled by casting datasets and models as "social objects". Social functions include both private and public sharing, formation of collaborative groups of users, and value-added annotation of shared datasets and models. The HydroShare web interface and social media functions were developed using the Django web application framework coupled to iRODS. Data visualization and analysis is supported through the Tethys Platform web GIS software stack. Links to external systems are supported by RESTful web service interfaces to HydroShare's content. This presentation will introduce the HydroShare functionality developed to date and describe ongoing development of functionality to support collaboration and integration of data and models.

Conceptual models of information processing

Science.gov (United States)

Stewart, L. J.

1983-01-01

The conceptual information processing issues are examined. Human information processing is defined as an active cognitive process that is analogous to a system. It is the flow and transformation of information within a human. The human is viewed as an active information seeker who is constantly receiving, processing, and acting upon the surrounding environmental stimuli. Human information processing models are conceptual representations of cognitive behaviors. Models of information processing are useful in representing the different theoretical positions and in attempting to define the limits and capabilities of human memory. It is concluded that an understanding of conceptual human information processing models and their applications to systems design leads to a better human factors approach.

Hydrologic behaviour of the Lake of Monate (Italy): a parsimonious modelling strategy

Science.gov (United States)

Tomesani, Giulia; Soligno, Irene; Castellarin, Attilio; Baratti, Emanuele; Cervi, Federico; Montanari, Alberto

2016-04-01

The Lake of Monate (province of Varese, Northern Italy), is a unique example of ecosystem in equilibrium. The lake water quality is deemed excellent notwithstanding the intensive agricultural cultivation, industrial assets and mining activities characterising the surrounding areas. The lake has a true touristic vocation and is the only swimmable water body of the province of Varese, which counts several natural lakes. Lake of Monate has no tributary and its overall watershed area is equal to c.a. 6.6 km2 including the lake surface (i.e. 2.6 km2), of which 3.3 out of c.a. 4.0 km2 belong to the topographical watershed, while the remaining 0.7 km2 belong to the underground watershed. The latter is larger than the topographical watershed due to the presence of moraine formations on top of the limestone bedrock. The local administration recently promoted an intensive environmental monitoring campaign that aims to reach a better understanding of the hydrology of the lake and the subsurface water fluxes. The monitoring campaign started in October 2013 and, as a result, several meteoclimatic and hydrologic data have been collected up to now at daily and hourly timescales. Our study focuses on a preliminary representation of the hydrological behaviour of the lake through a modified version of HyMOD, a conceptual 5-parameter lumped rainfall-runoff model based on the probability-distributed soil storage capacity. The modified model is a semi-distributed application of HyMOD that uses the same five parameters of the original version and simulates the rainfall-runoff transformation for the whole lake watershed at daily time scale in terms of: direct precipitation on, and evaporation from, the lake surface; overall lake inflow, by separating the runoff component (topographic watershed) from the groundwater component (overall watershed); lake water-level oscillation; streamflow at the lake outlet. We used the first year of hydrometeorological observations as calibration data and

Publishing and sharing of hydrologic models through WaterHUB

Science.gov (United States)

Merwade, V.; Ruddell, B. L.; Song, C.; Zhao, L.; Kim, J.; Assi, A.

2011-12-01

Most hydrologists use hydrologic models to simulate the hydrologic processes to understand hydrologic pathways and fluxes for research, decision making and engineering design. Once these tasks are complete including publication of results, the models generally are not published or made available to the public for further use and improvement. Although publication or sharing of models is not required for journal publications, sharing of models may open doors for new collaborations, and avoids duplication of efforts if other researchers are interested in simulating a particular watershed for which a model already exists. For researchers, who are interested in sharing models, there are limited avenues to publishing their models to the wider community. Towards filling this gap, a prototype cyberinfrastructure (CI), called WaterHUB, is developed for sharing hydrologic data and modeling tools in an interactive environment. To test the utility of WaterHUB for sharing hydrologic models, a system to publish and share SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool) is developed. Users can utilize WaterHUB to search and download existing SWAT models, and also upload new SWAT models. Metadata such as the name of the watershed, name of the person or agency who developed the model, simulation period, time step, and list of calibrated parameters also published with individual model.

PATHS groundwater hydrologic model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nelson, R.W.; Schur, J.A.

1980-04-01

A preliminary evaluation capability for two-dimensional groundwater pollution problems was developed as part of the Transport Modeling Task for the Waste Isolation Safety Assessment Program (WISAP). Our approach was to use the data limitations as a guide in setting the level of modeling detail. PATHS Groundwater Hydrologic Model is the first level (simplest) idealized hybrid analytical/numerical model for two-dimensional, saturated groundwater flow and single component transport; homogeneous geology. This document consists of the description of the PATHS groundwater hydrologic model. The preliminary evaluation capability prepared for WISAP, including the enhancements that were made because of the authors' experience using the earlier capability is described. Appendixes A through D supplement the report as follows: complete derivations of the background equations are provided in Appendix A. Appendix B is a comprehensive set of instructions for users of PATHS. It is written for users who have little or no experience with computers. Appendix C is for the programmer. It contains information on how input parameters are passed between programs in the system. It also contains program listings and test case listing. Appendix D is a definition of terms.

Mathematical modelling of fracture hydrology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Herbert, A.W.; Hodgkinson, D.P.; Lever, D.A.; Robinson, P.C.; Rae, J.

1985-06-01

This report summarises the work performed between January 1983 and December 1984 for the CEC/DOE contract 'Mathematical Modelling of Fracture Hydrology', under the following headings: 1) Statistical fracture network modelling, 2) Continuum models of flow and transport, 3) Simplified models, 4) Analysis of laboratory experiments and 5) Analysis of field experiments. (author)

A distributed eco-hydrological model and its application

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zong-xue Xu

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Eco-hydrological processes in arid areas are the focus of many hydrological and water resources studies. However, the hydrological cycle and the ecological system have usually been considered separately in most previous studies, and the correlation between the two has not been fully understood. Interdisciplinary research on eco-hydrological processes using multidisciplinary knowledge has been insufficient. In order to quantitatively analyze and evaluate the interaction between the ecosystem and the hydrological cycle, a new kind of eco-hydrological model, the ecology module for a grid-based integrated surface and groundwater model (Eco-GISMOD, is proposed with a two-way coupling approach, which combines the ecological model (EPIC and hydrological model (GISMOD by considering water exchange in the soil layer. Water interaction between different soil layers is simply described through a generalized physical process in various situations. A special method was used to simulate the water exchange between plants and the soil layer, taking into account precipitation, evapotranspiration, infiltration, soil water replenishment, and root water uptake. In order to evaluate the system performance, the Heihe River Basin in northwestern China was selected for a case study. The results show that forests and crops were generally growing well with sufficient water supply, but water shortages, especially in the summer, inhibited the growth of grass and caused grass degradation. This demonstrates that water requirements and water consumption for different kinds of vegetation can be estimated by considering the water-supply rules of Eco-GISMOD, which will be helpful for the planning and management of water resources in the future.

Improving the temporal transposability of lumped hydrological models on twenty diversified U.S. watersheds

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. Seiller

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Study region: Twenty diversified U.S. watersheds. Study focus: Identifying optimal parameter sets for hydrological modeling on a specific catchment remains an important challenge for numerous applied and research projects. This is particularly the case when working under contrasted climate conditions that question the temporal transposability of the parameters. Methodologies exist, mainly based on Differential Split Sample Tests, to examine this concern. This work assesses the improved temporal transposability of a multimodel implementation, based on twenty dissimilar lumped conceptual structures and on twenty U.S. watersheds, over the performance of the individual models. New hydrological insights for the region: Individual and collective temporal transposabilities are analyzed and compared on the twenty studied watersheds. Results show that individual models performances on contrasted climate conditions are very dissimilar depending on test period and watershed, without the possibility to identify a best solution in all circumstances. They also confirm that performance and robustness are clearly enhanced using an ensemble of rainfall-runoff models instead of individual ones. The use of (calibrated weight averaged multimodels further improves temporal transposability over simple averaged ensemble, in most instances, confirming added-value of this approach but also the need to evaluate how individual models compensate each other errors. Keywords: Rainfall-runoff modeling, Multimodel approach, Differential Split Sample Test, Deterministic combination, Outputs averaging

Gsflow-py: An integrated hydrologic model development tool

Science.gov (United States)

Gardner, M.; Niswonger, R. G.; Morton, C.; Henson, W.; Huntington, J. L.

2017-12-01

Integrated hydrologic modeling encompasses a vast number of processes and specifications, variable in time and space, and development of model datasets can be arduous. Model input construction techniques have not been formalized or made easily reproducible. Creating the input files for integrated hydrologic models (IHM) requires complex GIS processing of raster and vector datasets from various sources. Developing stream network topology that is consistent with the model resolution digital elevation model is important for robust simulation of surface water and groundwater exchanges. Distribution of meteorologic parameters over the model domain is difficult in complex terrain at the model resolution scale, but is necessary to drive realistic simulations. Historically, development of input data for IHM models has required extensive GIS and computer programming expertise which has restricted the use of IHMs to research groups with available financial, human, and technical resources. Here we present a series of Python scripts that provide a formalized technique for the parameterization and development of integrated hydrologic model inputs for GSFLOW. With some modifications, this process could be applied to any regular grid hydrologic model. This Python toolkit automates many of the necessary and laborious processes of parameterization, including stream network development and cascade routing, land coverages, and meteorological distribution over the model domain.

Development of Hydrological Model of Klang River Valley for flood forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

Mohammad, M.; Andras, B.

2012-12-01

This study is to review the impact of climate change and land used on flooding through the Klang River and to compare the changes in the existing river system in Klang River Basin with the Storm water Management and Road Tunnel (SMART) which is now already operating in the city centre of Kuala Lumpur. Klang River Basin is the most urbanized region in Malaysia. More than half of the basin has been urbanized on the land that is prone to flooding. Numerous flood mitigation projects and studies have been carried out to enhance the existing flood forecasting and mitigation project. The objective of this study is to develop a hydrological model for flood forecasting in Klang Basin Malaysia. Hydrological modelling generally requires large set of input data and this is more often a challenge for a developing country. Due to this limitation, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) rainfall measurement, initiated by the US space agency NASA and Japanese space agency JAXA was used in this study. TRMM data was transformed and corrected by quantile to quantile transformation. However, transforming the data based on ground measurement doesn't make any significant improvement and the statistical comparison shows only 10% difference. The conceptual HYMOD model was used in this study and calibrated using ROPE algorithm. But, using the whole time series of the observation period in this area resulted in insufficient performance. The depth function which used in ROPE algorithm are then used to identified and calibrated using only unusual event to observed the improvement and efficiency of the model.

Integrated climate and hydrology modelling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsen, Morten Andreas Dahl

To ensure optimal management and sustainable strategies for water resources, infrastructures, food production and ecosystems there is a need for an improved understanding of feedback and interaction mechanisms between the atmosphere and the land surface. This is especially true in light of expected...... global warming and increased frequency of extreme events. The skill in developing projections of both the present and future climate depends essentially on the ability to numerically simulate the processes of atmospheric circulation, hydrology, energy and ecology. Previous modelling efforts of climate...... and hydrology models to more directly include the interaction between the atmosphere and the land surface. The present PhD study is motivated by an ambition of developing and applying a modelling tool capable of including the interaction and feedback mechanisms between the atmosphere and the land surface...

Hydrological models for environmental management

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Bolgov, Mikhail V

2002-01-01

.... Stochastic modelling and forecasting cannot at present adequately represent the characteristics of hydrological regimes, nor analyze the influence of water on processes that arise in biological...

Thermal-hydrological models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Buscheck, T., LLNL

1998-04-29

This chapter describes the physical processes and natural and engineered system conditions that affect thermal-hydrological (T-H) behavior in the unsaturated zone (UZ) at Yucca Mountain and how these effects are represented in mathematical and numerical models that are used to predict T-H conditions in the near field, altered zone, and engineered barrier system (EBS), and on waste package (WP) surfaces.

Evaluating spatial patterns in hydrological modelling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Koch, Julian

the contiguous United Sates (10^6 km2). To this end, the thesis at hand applies a set of spatial performance metrics on various hydrological variables, namely land-surface-temperature (LST), evapotranspiration (ET) and soil moisture. The inspiration for the applied metrics is found in related fields...... is not fully exploited by current modelling frameworks due to the lack of suitable spatial performance metrics. Furthermore, the traditional model evaluation using discharge is found unsuitable to lay confidence on the predicted catchment inherent spatial variability of hydrological processes in a fully...

Incorporating modelled subglacial hydrology into inversions for basal drag

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. P. Koziol

2017-12-01

Full Text Available A key challenge in modelling coupled ice-flow–subglacial hydrology is initializing the state and parameters of the system. We address this problem by presenting a workflow for initializing these values at the start of a summer melt season. The workflow depends on running a subglacial hydrology model for the winter season, when the system is not forced by meltwater inputs, and ice velocities can be assumed constant. Key parameters of the winter run of the subglacial hydrology model are determined from an initial inversion for basal drag using a linear sliding law. The state of the subglacial hydrology model at the end of winter is incorporated into an inversion of basal drag using a non-linear sliding law which is a function of water pressure. We demonstrate this procedure in the Russell Glacier area and compare the output of the linear sliding law with two non-linear sliding laws. Additionally, we compare the modelled winter hydrological state to radar observations and find that it is in line with summer rather than winter observations.

Improving student comprehension of the interconnectivity of the hydrologic cycle with a novel 'hydrology toolbox', integrated watershed model, and companion textbook

Science.gov (United States)

Huning, L. S.; Margulis, S. A.

2013-12-01

Concepts in introductory hydrology courses are often taught in the context of process-based modeling that ultimately is integrated into a watershed model. In an effort to reduce the learning curve associated with applying hydrologic concepts to real-world applications, we developed and incorporated a 'hydrology toolbox' that complements a new, companion textbook into introductory undergraduate hydrology courses. The hydrology toolbox contains the basic building blocks (functions coded in MATLAB) for an integrated spatially-distributed watershed model that makes hydrologic topics (e.g. precipitation, snow, radiation, evaporation, unsaturated flow, infiltration, groundwater, and runoff) more user-friendly and accessible for students. The toolbox functions can be used in a modular format so that students can study individual hydrologic processes and become familiar with the hydrology toolbox. This approach allows such courses to emphasize understanding and application of hydrologic concepts rather than computer coding or programming. While topics in introductory hydrology courses are often introduced and taught independently or semi-independently, they are inherently interconnected. These toolbox functions are therefore linked together at the end of the course to reinforce a holistic understanding of how these hydrologic processes are measured, interconnected, and modeled. They are integrated into a spatially-distributed watershed model or numerical laboratory where students can explore a range of topics such as rainfall-runoff modeling, urbanization, deforestation, watershed response to changes in parameters or forcings, etc. Model output can readily be visualized and analyzed by students to understand watershed response in a real river basin or a simple 'toy' basin. These tools complement the textbook, each of which has been well received by students in multiple hydrology courses with various disciplinary backgrounds. The same governing equations that students have

Description of the National Hydrologic Model for use with the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS)

Science.gov (United States)

Regan, R. Steven; Markstrom, Steven L.; Hay, Lauren E.; Viger, Roland J.; Norton, Parker A.; Driscoll, Jessica M.; LaFontaine, Jacob H.

2018-01-08

This report documents several components of the U.S. Geological Survey National Hydrologic Model of the conterminous United States for use with the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS). It provides descriptions of the (1) National Hydrologic Model, (2) Geospatial Fabric for National Hydrologic Modeling, (3) PRMS hydrologic simulation code, (4) parameters and estimation methods used to compute spatially and temporally distributed default values as required by PRMS, (5) National Hydrologic Model Parameter Database, and (6) model extraction tool named Bandit. The National Hydrologic Model Parameter Database contains values for all PRMS parameters used in the National Hydrologic Model. The methods and national datasets used to estimate all the PRMS parameters are described. Some parameter values are derived from characteristics of topography, land cover, soils, geology, and hydrography using traditional Geographic Information System methods. Other parameters are set to long-established default values and computation of initial values. Additionally, methods (statistical, sensitivity, calibration, and algebraic) were developed to compute parameter values on the basis of a variety of nationally-consistent datasets. Values in the National Hydrologic Model Parameter Database can periodically be updated on the basis of new parameter estimation methods and as additional national datasets become available. A companion ScienceBase resource provides a set of static parameter values as well as images of spatially-distributed parameters associated with PRMS states and fluxes for each Hydrologic Response Unit across the conterminuous United States.

Decomposition of the Mean Squared Error and NSE Performance Criteria: Implications for Improving Hydrological Modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Gupta, Hoshin V.; Kling, Harald; Yilmaz, Koray K.; Martinez-Baquero, Guillermo F.

2009-01-01

The mean squared error (MSE) and the related normalization, the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), are the two criteria most widely used for calibration and evaluation of hydrological models with observed data. Here, we present a diagnostically interesting decomposition of NSE (and hence MSE), which facilitates analysis of the relative importance of its different components in the context of hydrological modelling, and show how model calibration problems can arise due to interactions among these components. The analysis is illustrated by calibrating a simple conceptual precipitation-runoff model to daily data for a number of Austrian basins having a broad range of hydro-meteorological characteristics. Evaluation of the results clearly demonstrates the problems that can be associated with any calibration based on the NSE (or MSE) criterion. While we propose and test an alternative criterion that can help to reduce model calibration problems, the primary purpose of this study is not to present an improved measure of model performance. Instead, we seek to show that there are systematic problems inherent with any optimization based on formulations related to the MSE. The analysis and results have implications to the manner in which we calibrate and evaluate environmental models; we discuss these and suggest possible ways forward that may move us towards an improved and diagnostically meaningful approach to model performance evaluation and identification.

Conceptual Models Core to Good Design

CERN Document Server

Johnson, Jeff

2011-01-01

People make use of software applications in their activities, applying them as tools in carrying out tasks. That this use should be good for people--easy, effective, efficient, and enjoyable--is a principal goal of design. In this book, we present the notion of Conceptual Models, and argue that Conceptual Models are core to achieving good design. From years of helping companies create software applications, we have come to believe that building applications without Conceptual Models is just asking for designs that will be confusing and difficult to learn, remember, and use. We show how Concept

Can climate variability information constrain a hydrological model for an ungauged Costa Rican catchment?

Science.gov (United States)

Quesada-Montano, Beatriz; Westerberg, Ida K.; Fuentes-Andino, Diana; Hidalgo-Leon, Hugo; Halldin, Sven

2017-04-01

Long-term hydrological data are key to understanding catchment behaviour and for decision making within water management and planning. Given the lack of observed data in many regions worldwide, hydrological models are an alternative for reproducing historical streamflow series. Additional types of information - to locally observed discharge - can be used to constrain model parameter uncertainty for ungauged catchments. Climate variability exerts a strong influence on streamflow variability on long and short time scales, in particular in the Central-American region. We therefore explored the use of climate variability knowledge to constrain the simulated discharge uncertainty of a conceptual hydrological model applied to a Costa Rican catchment, assumed to be ungauged. To reduce model uncertainty we first rejected parameter relationships that disagreed with our understanding of the system. We then assessed how well climate-based constraints applied at long-term, inter-annual and intra-annual time scales could constrain model uncertainty. Finally, we compared the climate-based constraints to a constraint on low-flow statistics based on information obtained from global maps. We evaluated our method in terms of the ability of the model to reproduce the observed hydrograph and the active catchment processes in terms of two efficiency measures, a statistical consistency measure, a spread measure and 17 hydrological signatures. We found that climate variability knowledge was useful for reducing model uncertainty, in particular, unrealistic representation of deep groundwater processes. The constraints based on global maps of low-flow statistics provided more constraining information than those based on climate variability, but the latter rejected slow rainfall-runoff representations that the low flow statistics did not reject. The use of such knowledge, together with information on low-flow statistics and constraints on parameter relationships showed to be useful to

How to handle spatial heterogeneity in hydrological models.

Science.gov (United States)

Loritz, Ralf; Neuper, Malte; Gupta, Hoshin; Zehe, Erwin

2017-04-01

The amount of data we observe in our environmental systems is larger than ever. This leads to a new kind of problem where hydrological modelers can have access to large datasets with various quantitative and qualitative observations but are uncertain about the information content with respect to the hydrological functioning of a landscape. For example digital elevation models obviously contain plenty of information about the topography of a landscape; however the question of relevance for Hydrology is how much of this information is important for the hydrological functioning of a landscape. This kind of question is not limited to topography and we can ask similar questions when handling distributed rainfall data or geophysical images. In this study we would like to show how one can separate dominant patterns in the landscape from idiosyncratic system details. We use a 2D numerical hillslope model in combination with an extensive research data set to test a variety of different model setups that are built upon different landscape characteristics and run by different rainfalls measurements. With the help of information theory based measures we can identify and learn how much heterogeneity is really necessary for successful hydrological simulations and how much of it we can neglect.

An integrated crop and hydrologic modeling system to estimate hydrologic impacts of crop irrigation demands

Science.gov (United States)

R.T. McNider; C. Handyside; K. Doty; W.L. Ellenburg; J.F. Cruise; J.R. Christy; D. Moss; V. Sharda; G. Hoogenboom; Peter Caldwell

2015-01-01

The present paper discusses a coupled gridded crop modeling and hydrologic modeling system that can examine the benefits of irrigation and costs of irrigation and the coincident impact of the irrigation water withdrawals on surface water hydrology. The system is applied to the Southeastern U.S. The system tools to be discussed include a gridded version (GriDSSAT) of...

SWAT Modeling for Depression-Dominated Areas: How Do Depressions Manipulate Hydrologic Modeling?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohsen Tahmasebi Nasab

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Modeling hydrologic processes for depression-dominated areas such as the North American Prairie Pothole Region is complex and reliant on a clear understanding of dynamic filling-spilling-merging-splitting processes of numerous depressions over the surface. Puddles are spatially distributed over a watershed and their sizes, storages, and interactions vary over time. However, most hydrologic models fail to account for these dynamic processes. Like other traditional methods, depressions are filled as a required preprocessing step in the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT. The objective of this study was to facilitate hydrologic modeling for depression-dominated areas by coupling SWAT with a Puddle Delineation (PD algorithm. In the coupled PD-SWAT model, the PD algorithm was utilized to quantify topographic details, including the characteristics, distribution, and hierarchical relationships of depressions, which were incorporated into SWAT at the hydrologic response unit (HRU scale. The new PD-SWAT model was tested for a large watershed in North Dakota under real precipitation events. In addition, hydrologic modeling of a small watershed was conducted under two extreme high and low synthetic precipitation conditions. In particular, the PD-SWAT was compared against the regular SWAT based on depressionless DEMs. The impact of depressions on the hydrologic modeling of the large and small watersheds was evaluated. The simulation results for the large watershed indicated that SWAT systematically overestimated the outlet discharge, which can be attributed to the failure to account for the hydrologic effects of depressions. It was found from the PD-SWAT modeling results that at the HRU scale surface runoff initiation was significantly delayed due to the threshold control of depressions. Under the high precipitation scenario, depressions increased the surface runoff peak. However, the low precipitation scenario could not fully fill depressions to reach

Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modeling (LUCHEM). I: Model intercomparison with current land use

Science.gov (United States)

Breuer, L.; Huisman, J.A.; Willems, P.; Bormann, H.; Bronstert, A.; Croke, B.F.W.; Frede, H.-G.; Graff, T.; Hubrechts, L.; Jakeman, A.J.; Kite, G.; Lanini, J.; Leavesley, G.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; Lindstrom, G.; Seibert, J.; Sivapalan, M.; Viney, N.R.

2009-01-01

This paper introduces the project on 'Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modeling (LUCHEM)' that aims at investigating the envelope of predictions on changes in hydrological fluxes due to land use change. As part of a series of four papers, this paper outlines the motivation and setup of LUCHEM, and presents a model intercomparison for the present-day simulation results. Such an intercomparison provides a valuable basis to investigate the effects of different model structures on model predictions and paves the ground for the analysis of the performance of multi-model ensembles and the reliability of the scenario predictions in companion papers. In this study, we applied a set of 10 lumped, semi-lumped and fully distributed hydrological models that have been previously used in land use change studies to the low mountainous Dill catchment, Germany. Substantial differences in model performance were observed with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies ranging from 0.53 to 0.92. Differences in model performance were attributed to (1) model input data, (2) model calibration and (3) the physical basis of the models. The models were applied with two sets of input data: an original and a homogenized data set. This homogenization of precipitation, temperature and leaf area index was performed to reduce the variation between the models. Homogenization improved the comparability of model simulations and resulted in a reduced average bias, although some variation in model data input remained. The effect of the physical differences between models on the long-term water balance was mainly attributed to differences in how models represent evapotranspiration. Semi-lumped and lumped conceptual models slightly outperformed the fully distributed and physically based models. This was attributed to the automatic model calibration typically used for this type of models. Overall, however, we conclude that there was no superior model if several measures of model

Ensemble Analysis of Variational Assimilation of Hydrologic and Hydrometeorological Data into Distributed Hydrologic Model

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, H.; Seo, D.; Koren, V.

2008-12-01

A prototype 4DVAR (four-dimensional variational) data assimilator for gridded Sacramento soil-moisture accounting and kinematic-wave routing models in the Hydrology Laboratory's Research Distributed Hydrologic Model (HL-RDHM) has been developed. The prototype assimilates streamflow and in-situ soil moisture data and adjusts gridded precipitation and climatological potential evaporation data to reduce uncertainty in the model initial conditions for improved monitoring and prediction of streamflow and soil moisture at the outlet and interior locations within the catchment. Due to large degrees of freedom involved, data assimilation (DA) into distributed hydrologic models is complex. To understand and assess sensitivity of the performance of DA to uncertainties in the model initial conditions and in the data, two synthetic experiments have been carried out in an ensemble framework. Results from the synthetic experiments shed much light on the potential and limitations with DA into distributed models. For initial real-world assessment, the prototype DA has also been applied to the headwater basin at Eldon near the Oklahoma-Arkansas border. We present these results and describe the next steps.

Evaluating Hydrologic Transience in Watershed Delineation, Numerical Modeling and Solute Transport in the Great Basin. Clayton Valley, Nevada

Science.gov (United States)

Underdown, C. G.; Boutt, D. F.; Hynek, S. A.; Munk, L. A.

2017-12-01

Importance of transience in managed groundwater systems is generally determined by timeframe of management decisions. Watersheds with management times shorter than the aquifer (watershed) response time, or the time it takes a watershed to recover from a change in hydrologic state, would not include the new state and are treated as steady-state. However, these watersheds will experience transient response between hydrologic states. Watershed response time is a function of length. Therefore flat, regional watersheds characteristic of the Great Basin have long response times. Defining watershed extents as the area in which the water budget is balanced means inputs equal outputs. Steady-state budgets in the Great Basin have been balanced by extending watershed boundaries to include more area for recharge; however, the length and age of requisite flow paths are poorly constrained and often unrealistic. Inclusion of stored water in hydrologic budget calculations permits water balance within smaller contributing areas. As groundwater flow path lengths, depths, and locations differ between steady-state and transient systems, so do solute transport mechanisms. To observe how transience affects response time and solute transport, a refined (transient) version of the USGS steady-state groundwater flow model of the Great Basin is evaluated. This model is used to assess transient changes in contributing area for Clayton Valley, a lithium-brine producing endorheic basin in southwestern Nevada. Model runs of various recharge, discharge and storage bounds are created from conceptual models based upon historical climate data. Comparing results of the refined model to USGS groundwater observations allows for model validation and comparison against the USGS steady-state model. The transient contributing area to Clayton Valley is 85% smaller than that calculated from the steady-state solution, however several long flow paths important to both water and solute budgets at Clayton Valley

Modeling the hydrological cycle on Mars

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ghada Machtoub

2012-03-01

Full Text Available The study provides a detailed analysis of the hydrological cycle on Mars simulated with a newly developed microphysical model, incorporated in a spectral Mars General Circulation Model. The modeled hydrological cycle is compared well with simulations of other global climate models. The simulated seasonal migration ofwater vapor, circulation instability, and the high degree of temporal variability of localized water vapor outbursts are shown closely consistent with recent observations. The microphysical parameterization provides a significant improvement in the modeling of ice clouds evolved over the tropics and major ancient volcanoes on Mars. The most significant difference between the simulations presented here and other GCM results is the level at which the water ice clouds are found. The model findings also support interpretation of observed thermal anomalies in the Martian tropics during northern spring and summer seasons.

Findings and Challenges in Fine-Resolution Large-Scale Hydrological Modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Her, Y. G.

2017-12-01

Fine-resolution large-scale (FL) modeling can provide the overall picture of the hydrological cycle and transport while taking into account unique local conditions in the simulation. It can also help develop water resources management plans consistent across spatial scales by describing the spatial consequences of decisions and hydrological events extensively. FL modeling is expected to be common in the near future as global-scale remotely sensed data are emerging, and computing resources have been advanced rapidly. There are several spatially distributed models available for hydrological analyses. Some of them rely on numerical methods such as finite difference/element methods (FDM/FEM), which require excessive computing resources (implicit scheme) to manipulate large matrices or small simulation time intervals (explicit scheme) to maintain the stability of the solution, to describe two-dimensional overland processes. Others make unrealistic assumptions such as constant overland flow velocity to reduce the computational loads of the simulation. Thus, simulation efficiency often comes at the expense of precision and reliability in FL modeling. Here, we introduce a new FL continuous hydrological model and its application to four watersheds in different landscapes and sizes from 3.5 km2 to 2,800 km2 at the spatial resolution of 30 m on an hourly basis. The model provided acceptable accuracy statistics in reproducing hydrological observations made in the watersheds. The modeling outputs including the maps of simulated travel time, runoff depth, soil water content, and groundwater recharge, were animated, visualizing the dynamics of hydrological processes occurring in the watersheds during and between storm events. Findings and challenges were discussed in the context of modeling efficiency, accuracy, and reproducibility, which we found can be improved by employing advanced computing techniques and hydrological understandings, by using remotely sensed hydrological

Temperature as a tracer of hydrological dynamics in an anchialine cave system with a submarine spring

Science.gov (United States)

Domínguez-Villar, David; Cukrov, Neven; Krklec, Kristina

2018-01-01

Although temperature is a nonconservative tracer, it often provides useful information to understand hydrological processes. This study explores the potential of temperature to characterize the hydrological dynamics of a submarine spring and its coastal karst aquifer in Krka Estuary (Croatia). The estuary is well stratified and its water column has a clear thermocline. A network of loggers was designed to monitor the temperature along vertical profiles in the estuary and the coastal aquifer, taking advantage of an anchialine cave that enabled access to the subterranean estuary. The location of the thermocline in the groundwater, which defines the upper boundary of the saline intrusion, depends on (1) the recharge of the aquifer via infiltration of precipitation, (2) the evolution of the thermocline in the estuary, and (3) the tidal oscillations. The sources of water flowing though the anchialine cave were identified: brackish water from the estuary above the thermocline, saline water from the estuary below the thermocline, and freshwater from infiltrated precipitation. A conceptual model is described that characterizes the hydrological dynamics of this coastal aquifer and its interactions with the estuary. Thus, at least for some hydrological settings, temperature is a valid tracer to characterize the main hydrological processes. The measurement of temperature is inexpensive compared to other (conservative) tracers. Therefore, for those hydrological settings that have water masses with distinct temperatures, the use of temperature as a tracer to establish conceptual models of the hydrological dynamics is encouraged.

visCOS: An R-package to evaluate model performance of hydrological models

Science.gov (United States)

Klotz, Daniel; Herrnegger, Mathew; Wesemann, Johannes; Schulz, Karsten

2016-04-01

The evaluation of model performance is a central part of (hydrological) modelling. Much attention has been given to the development of evaluation criteria and diagnostic frameworks. (Klemeš, 1986; Gupta et al., 2008; among many others). Nevertheless, many applications exist for which objective functions do not yet provide satisfying summaries. Thus, the necessity to visualize results arises in order to explore a wider range of model capacities, be it strengths or deficiencies. Visualizations are usually devised for specific projects and these efforts are often not distributed to a broader community (e.g. via open source software packages). Hence, the opportunity to explicitly discuss a state-of-the-art presentation technique is often missed. We therefore present a comprehensive R-package for evaluating model performance by visualizing and exploring different aspects of hydrological time-series. The presented package comprises a set of useful plots and visualization methods, which complement existing packages, such as hydroGOF (Zambrano-Bigiarini et al., 2012). It is derived from practical applications of the hydrological models COSERO and COSEROreg (Kling et al., 2014). visCOS, providing an interface in R, represents an easy-to-use software package for visualizing and assessing model performance and can be implemented in the process of model calibration or model development. The package provides functions to load hydrological data into R, clean the data, process, visualize, explore and finally save the results in a consistent way. Together with an interactive zoom function of the time series, an online calculation of the objective functions for variable time-windows is included. Common hydrological objective functions, such as the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency and the Kling-Gupta Efficiency, can also be evaluated and visualized in different ways for defined sub-periods like hydrological years or seasonal sections. Many hydrologists use long-term water-balances as a

Hydrological model uncertainty due to spatial evapotranspiration estimation methods

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Xuan; Lamačová, Anna; Duffy, Christopher; Krám, Pavel; Hruška, Jakub

2016-05-01

Evapotranspiration (ET) continues to be a difficult process to estimate in seasonal and long-term water balances in catchment models. Approaches to estimate ET typically use vegetation parameters (e.g., leaf area index [LAI], interception capacity) obtained from field observation, remote sensing data, national or global land cover products, and/or simulated by ecosystem models. In this study we attempt to quantify the uncertainty that spatial evapotranspiration estimation introduces into hydrological simulations when the age of the forest is not precisely known. The Penn State Integrated Hydrologic Model (PIHM) was implemented for the Lysina headwater catchment, located 50°03‧N, 12°40‧E in the western part of the Czech Republic. The spatial forest patterns were digitized from forest age maps made available by the Czech Forest Administration. Two ET methods were implemented in the catchment model: the Biome-BGC forest growth sub-model (1-way coupled to PIHM) and with the fixed-seasonal LAI method. From these two approaches simulation scenarios were developed. We combined the estimated spatial forest age maps and two ET estimation methods to drive PIHM. A set of spatial hydrologic regime and streamflow regime indices were calculated from the modeling results for each method. Intercomparison of the hydrological responses to the spatial vegetation patterns suggested considerable variation in soil moisture and recharge and a small uncertainty in the groundwater table elevation and streamflow. The hydrologic modeling with ET estimated by Biome-BGC generated less uncertainty due to the plant physiology-based method. The implication of this research is that overall hydrologic variability induced by uncertain management practices was reduced by implementing vegetation models in the catchment models.

Model complexity control for hydrologic prediction

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schoups, G.; Van de Giesen, N.C.; Savenije, H.H.G.

2008-01-01

A common concern in hydrologic modeling is overparameterization of complex models given limited and noisy data. This leads to problems of parameter nonuniqueness and equifinality, which may negatively affect prediction uncertainties. A systematic way of controlling model complexity is therefore

On Lack of Robustness in Hydrological Model Development Due to Absence of Guidelines for Selecting Calibration and Evaluation Data: Demonstration for Data-Driven Models

Science.gov (United States)

Zheng, Feifei; Maier, Holger R.; Wu, Wenyan; Dandy, Graeme C.; Gupta, Hoshin V.; Zhang, Tuqiao

2018-02-01

Hydrological models are used for a wide variety of engineering purposes, including streamflow forecasting and flood-risk estimation. To develop such models, it is common to allocate the available data to calibration and evaluation data subsets. Surprisingly, the issue of how this allocation can affect model evaluation performance has been largely ignored in the research literature. This paper discusses the evaluation performance bias that can arise from how available data are allocated to calibration and evaluation subsets. As a first step to assessing this issue in a statistically rigorous fashion, we present a comprehensive investigation of the influence of data allocation on the development of data-driven artificial neural network (ANN) models of streamflow. Four well-known formal data splitting methods are applied to 754 catchments from Australia and the U.S. to develop 902,483 ANN models. Results clearly show that the choice of the method used for data allocation has a significant impact on model performance, particularly for runoff data that are more highly skewed, highlighting the importance of considering the impact of data splitting when developing hydrological models. The statistical behavior of the data splitting methods investigated is discussed and guidance is offered on the selection of the most appropriate data splitting methods to achieve representative evaluation performance for streamflow data with different statistical properties. Although our results are obtained for data-driven models, they highlight the fact that this issue is likely to have a significant impact on all types of hydrological models, especially conceptual rainfall-runoff models.

Development of hydrological models and surface process modelization Study case in High Mountain slopes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Loaiza, Juan Carlos; Pauwels, Valentijn R

2011-01-01

Hydrological models are useful because allow to predict fluxes into the hydrological systems, which is useful to predict foods and violent phenomenon associated to water fluxes, especially in materials under a high meteorization level. The combination of these models with meteorological predictions, especially with rainfall models, allow to model water behavior into the soil. On most of cases, this type of models is really sensible to evapotranspiration. On climatic studies, the superficial processes have to be represented adequately. Calibration and validation of these models is necessary to obtain reliable results. This paper is a practical exercise of application of complete hydrological information at detailed scale in a high mountain catchment, considering the soil use and types more representatives. The information of soil moisture, infiltration, runoff and rainfall is used to calibrate and validate TOPLATS hydrological model to simulate the behavior of soil moisture. The finds show that is possible to implement an hydrological model by means of soil moisture information use and an equation of calibration by Extended Kalman Filter (EKF).

Technological developments in real-time operational hydrologic forecasting in the United States

Science.gov (United States)

Hudlow, Michael D.

1988-09-01

The hydrologic forecasting service of the United States spans applications and scales ranging from those associated with the issuance of flood and flash warnings to those pertaining to seasonal water supply forecasts. New technological developments (underway in or planned by the National Weather Service (NWS) in support of the Hydrologic Program) are carried out as combined efforts by NWS headquarters and field personnel in cooperation with other organizations. These developments fall into two categories: hardware and software systems technology, and hydrometeorological analysis and prediction technology. Research, development, and operational implementation in progress in both of these areas are discussed. Cornerstones of an overall NWS modernization effort include implementation of state-of-the-art data acquisition systems (including the Next Generation Weather Radar) and communications and computer processing systems. The NWS Hydrologic Service will capitalize on these systems and will incorporate results from specific hydrologic projects including collection and processing of multivariate data sets, conceptual hydrologic modeling systems, integrated hydrologic modeling systems with meteorological interfaces and automatic updating of model states, and extended streamflow prediction techniques. The salient aspects of ongoing work in these areas are highlighted in this paper, providing some perspective on the future U.S. hydrologic forecasting service and its transitional period into the 1990s.

Hydrologic models and analysis of water availability in Cuyama Valley, California

Science.gov (United States)

Hanson, R.T.; Flint, Lorraine E.; Faunt, Claudia C.; Gibbs, Dennis R.; Schmid, Wolfgang

2014-01-01

Changes in population, agricultural development practices (including shifts to more water-intensive crops), and climate variability are placing increasingly larger demands on available water resources, particularly groundwater, in the Cuyama Valley, one of the most productive agricultural regions in Santa Barbara County. The goal of this study was to produce a model capable of being accurate at scales relevant to water management decisions that could be considered in the evaluation of the sustainable water supply. The Cuyama Valley Hydrologic Model (CUVHM) was designed to simulate the most important natural and human components of the hydrologic system, including components dependent on variations in climate, thereby providing a reliable assessment of groundwater conditions and processes that can inform water users and help to improve planning for future conditions. Model development included a revision of the conceptual model of the flow system, construction of a precipitation-runoff model using the Basin Characterization Model (BCM), and construction of an integrated hydrologic flow model with MODFLOW-One-Water Hydrologic Flow Model (MF-OWHM). The hydrologic models were calibrated to historical conditions of water and land use and, then, used to assess the use and movement of water throughout the Valley. These tools provide a means to understand the evolution of water use in the Valley, its availability, and the limits of sustainability. The conceptual model identified inflows and outflows that include the movement and use of water in both natural and anthropogenic systems. The groundwater flow system is characterized by a layered geologic sedimentary sequence that—in combination with the effects of groundwater pumping, natural recharge, and the application of irrigation water at the land surface—displays vertical hydraulic-head gradients. Overall, most of the agricultural demand for water in the Cuyama Valley in the initial part of the growing season is

Use of hydrologic and hydrodynamic modeling for ecosystem restoration

Science.gov (United States)

Obeysekera, J.; Kuebler, L.; Ahmed, S.; Chang, M.-L.; Engel, V.; Langevin, C.; Swain, E.; Wan, Y.

2011-01-01

Planning and implementation of unprecedented projects for restoring the greater Everglades ecosystem are underway and the hydrologic and hydrodynamic modeling of restoration alternatives has become essential for success of restoration efforts. In view of the complex nature of the South Florida water resources system, regional-scale (system-wide) hydrologic models have been developed and used extensively for the development of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan. In addition, numerous subregional-scale hydrologic and hydrodynamic models have been developed and are being used for evaluating project-scale water management plans associated with urban, agricultural, and inland costal ecosystems. The authors provide a comprehensive summary of models of all scales, as well as the next generation models under development to meet the future needs of ecosystem restoration efforts in South Florida. The multiagency efforts to develop and apply models have allowed the agencies to understand the complex hydrologic interactions, quantify appropriate performance measures, and use new technologies in simulation algorithms, software development, and GIS/database techniques to meet the future modeling needs of the ecosystem restoration programs. Copyright ?? 2011 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.

Hydrological Modelling the Middle Magdalena Valley (Colombia)

Science.gov (United States)

Arenas, M. C.; Duque, N.; Arboleda, P.; Guadagnini, A.; Riva, M.; Donado-Garzon, L. D.

2017-12-01

Hydrological distributed modeling is key point for a comprehensive assessment of the feedback between the dynamics of the hydrological cycle, climate conditions and land use. Such modeling results are markedly relevant in the fields of water resources management, natural hazards and oil and gas industry. Here, we employ TopModel (TOPography based hydrological MODEL) for the hydrological modeling of an area in the Middle Magdalena Valley (MMV), a tropical basin located in Colombia. This study is located over the intertropical convergence zone and is characterized by special meteorological conditions, with fast water fluxes over the year. It has been subject to significant land use changes, as a result of intense economical activities, i.e., and agriculture, energy and oil & gas production. The model employees a record of 12 years of daily precipitation and evapotranspiration data as inputs. Streamflow data monitored across the same time frame are used for model calibration. The latter is performed by considering data from 2000 to 2008. Model validation then relies on observations from 2009 to 2012. The robustness of our analyses is based on the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (values of this metric being 0.62 and 0.53, respectively for model calibration and validation). Our results reveal high water storage capacity in the soil, and a marked subsurface runoff, consistent with the characteristics of the soil types in the regions. A significant influence on runoff response of the basin to topographical factors represented in the model is evidenced. Our calibrated model provides relevant indications about recharge in the region, which is important to quantify the interaction between surface water and groundwater, specially during the dry season, which is more relevant in climate-change and climate-variability scenarios.

Legacy model integration for enhancing hydrologic interdisciplinary research

Science.gov (United States)

Dozier, A.; Arabi, M.; David, O.

2013-12-01

Many challenges are introduced to interdisciplinary research in and around the hydrologic science community due to advances in computing technology and modeling capabilities in different programming languages, across different platforms and frameworks by researchers in a variety of fields with a variety of experience in computer programming. Many new hydrologic models as well as optimization, parameter estimation, and uncertainty characterization techniques are developed in scripting languages such as Matlab, R, Python, or in newer languages such as Java and the .Net languages, whereas many legacy models have been written in FORTRAN and C, which complicates inter-model communication for two-way feedbacks. However, most hydrologic researchers and industry personnel have little knowledge of the computing technologies that are available to address the model integration process. Therefore, the goal of this study is to address these new challenges by utilizing a novel approach based on a publish-subscribe-type system to enhance modeling capabilities of legacy socio-economic, hydrologic, and ecologic software. Enhancements include massive parallelization of executions and access to legacy model variables at any point during the simulation process by another program without having to compile all the models together into an inseparable 'super-model'. Thus, this study provides two-way feedback mechanisms between multiple different process models that can be written in various programming languages and can run on different machines and operating systems. Additionally, a level of abstraction is given to the model integration process that allows researchers and other technical personnel to perform more detailed and interactive modeling, visualization, optimization, calibration, and uncertainty analysis without requiring deep understanding of inter-process communication. To be compatible, a program must be written in a programming language with bindings to a common

Human impact parameterizations in global hydrological models improve estimates of monthly discharges and hydrological extremes: a multi-model validation study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Veldkamp, T I E; Zhao, F; Ward, P J; Moel, H de; Aerts, J C J H; Schmied, H Müller; Portmann, F T; Masaki, Y; Pokhrel, Y; Liu, X; Satoh, Yusuke; Gerten, Dieter; Gosling, S N; Zaherpour, J; Wada, Yoshihide

2018-01-01

Human activity has a profound influence on river discharges, hydrological extremes and water-related hazards. In this study, we compare the results of five state-of-the-art global hydrological models (GHMs) with observations to examine the role of human impact parameterizations (HIP) in the

Integrated climate and hydrology modelling - Coupling of the HIRHAM regional climate model and the MIKE SHE hydrological model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dahl Larsen, M.A. [Technical Univ. of Denmark. DTU Management Engineering, DTU Risoe Campus, Roskilde (Denmark)

2013-10-15

To ensure optimal management and sustainable strategies for water resources, infrastructures, food production and ecosystems there is a need for an improved understanding of feedback and interaction mechanisms between the atmosphere and the land surface. This is especially true in light of expected global warming and increased frequency of extreme events. The skill in developing projections of both the present and future climate depends essentially on the ability to numerically simulate the processes of atmospheric circulation, hydrology, energy and ecology. Previous modelling efforts of climate and hydrology have used each model component in an offline mode where the models are run in sequential steps and one model serves as a boundary condition or data input source to the other. Within recent years a new field of research has emerged where efforts have been made to dynamically couple existing climate and hydrology models to more directly include the interaction between the atmosphere and the land surface. The present PhD study is motivated by an ambition of developing and applying a modelling tool capable of including the interaction and feedback mechanisms between the atmosphere and the land surface. The modelling tool consists of a fully dynamic two-way coupling of the HIRHAM regional climate model and the MIKE SHE hydrological model. The expected gain is twofold. Firstly, HIRHAM utilizes the land surface component of the combined MIKE SHE/SWET hydrology and land surface model (LSM), which is superior to the LSM in HIRHAM. A wider range of processes are included at the land surface, subsurface flow is distributed in three dimensions and the temporal and spatial resolution is higher. Secondly, the feedback mechanisms of e.g. soil moisture and precipitation between the two models are included. The preparation of the HIRHAM and MIKE SHE models for the coupled study revealed several findings. The performance of HIRHAM was highly affected by the domain size, domain

Conceptual IT model

Science.gov (United States)

Arnaoudova, Kristina; Stanchev, Peter

2015-11-01

The business processes are the key asset for every organization. The design of the business process models is the foremost concern and target among an organization's functions. Business processes and their proper management are intensely dependent on the performance of software applications and technology solutions. The paper is attempt for definition of new Conceptual model of IT service provider, it could be examined as IT focused Enterprise model, part of Enterprise Architecture (EA) school.

Seasonal Gravity Field Variations from GRACE and Hydrological Models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Hinderer, Jacques; Lemoine, Frank G.

2004-01-01

. Four global hydrological models covering the same period in 2002–2003 as the GRACE observations were investigated to for their mutual consistency in estimates of annual variation in terrestrial water storage and related temporal changes in gravity field. The hydrological models differ by a maximum of 2...... µGal or nearly 5 cm equivalent water storage in selected regions. Integrated over all land masses the standard deviation among the annual signal from the four hydrological models are 0.6 µGal equivalent to around 1.4 cm in equivalent water layer thickness. The estimated accuracy of the annual...

Hydrologic investigations to evaluate a potential site for a nuclear-waste repository, Yucca Mountain, Nevada Test Site

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wilson, W.E.

1985-01-01

Yucca Mountain, Nevada Test Site, is being evaluated by the U.S. Department of Energy for its suitability as a site for a mined geologic respository for high-level nuclear wastes. The repository facility would be constructed in densely welded tuffs in the unsaturated zone. In support of the evaluation, the U.S. Geological Survey is conducting hydrologic investigations of both the saturated and unsaturated zones, as well as paleohydrologic studies. Investigation in saturated-zone hydrology will help define one component of ground-water flow paths and travel times to the accessible environment. A two-dimensional, steady-state, finite-element model was developed to describe the regional hydrogeologic framework. The unsaturated zone is 450 to 700 meters thick at Yucca Mountain; precipitation averages about 150 millimeters per year. A conceptual hydrologic model of the unsaturated zone incorporates the following features: minimal net infiltration, variable distribution of flux, lateral flow, potential for perched-water zones, fracture and matrix flow, and flow along faults. The conceptual model is being tested primarily by specialized test drilling; plans also are being developed for in-situ testing in a proposed exploratory shaft. Quaternary climatic and hydrologic conditions are being evaluated to develop estimates of the hydrologic effects of potential climatic changes during the next 10,000 years. Evaluation approaches include analysis of plant macrofossils in packrat middens, evaluation of lake and playa sediments, infiltration tests, and modeling effects of potential increased recharge on the potentiometric surface

Hydrological model in STEALTH 2-D code

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hart, R.; Hofmann, R.

1979-10-01

Porous media fluid flow logic has been added to the two-dimensional version of the STEALTH explicit finite-difference code. It is a first-order hydrological model based upon Darcy's Law. Anisotropic permeability can be prescribed through x and y directional permeabilities. The fluid flow equations are formulated for either two-dimensional translation symmetry or two-dimensional axial symmetry. The addition of the hydrological model to STEALTH is a first step toward analyzing a physical system's response to the coupling of thermal, mechanical, and fluid flow phenomena

Conceptualizing Telehealth in Nursing Practice: Advancing a Conceptual Model to Fill a Virtual Gap.

Science.gov (United States)

Nagel, Daniel A; Penner, Jamie L

2016-03-01

Increasingly nurses use various telehealth technologies to deliver health care services; however, there has been a lag in research and generation of empirical knowledge to support nursing practice in this expanding field. One challenge to generating knowledge is a gap in development of a comprehensive conceptual model or theoretical framework to illustrate relationships of concepts and phenomena inherent to adoption of a broad range of telehealth technologies to holistic nursing practice. A review of the literature revealed eight published conceptual models, theoretical frameworks, or similar entities applicable to nursing practice. Many of these models focus exclusively on use of telephones and four were generated from qualitative studies, but none comprehensively reflect complexities of bridging nursing process and elements of nursing practice into use of telehealth. The purpose of this article is to present a review of existing conceptual models and frameworks, discuss predominant themes and features of these models, and present a comprehensive conceptual model for telehealth nursing practice synthesized from this literature for consideration and further development. This conceptual model illustrates characteristics of, and relationships between, dimensions of telehealth practice to guide research and knowledge development in provision of holistic person-centered care delivery to individuals by nurses through telehealth technologies. © The Author(s) 2015.

Coupled Crop/Hydrology Model to Estimate Expanded Irrigation Impact on Water Resources

Science.gov (United States)

Handyside, C. T.; Cruise, J.

2017-12-01

A coupled agricultural and hydrologic systems model is used to examine the environmental impact of irrigation in the Southeast. A gridded crop model for the Southeast is used to determine regional irrigation demand. This irrigation demand is used in a regional hydrologic model to determine the hydrologic impact of irrigation. For the Southeast to maintain/expand irrigated agricultural production and provide adaptation to climate change and climate variability it will require integrated agricultural and hydrologic system models that can calculate irrigation demand and the impact of the this demand on the river hydrology. These integrated models can be used as (1) historical tools to examine vulnerability of expanded irrigation to past climate extremes (2) future tools to examine the sustainability of expanded irrigation under future climate scenarios and (3) a real-time tool to allow dynamic water resource management. Such tools are necessary to assure stakeholders and the public that irrigation can be carried out in a sustainable manner. The system tools to be discussed include a gridded version of the crop modeling system (DSSAT). The gridded model is referred to as GriDSSAT. The irrigation demand from GriDSSAT is coupled to a regional hydrologic model developed by the Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center of the USDA Forest Service) (WaSSI). The crop model provides the dynamic irrigation demand which is a function of the weather. The hydrologic model includes all other competing uses of water. Examples of use the crop model coupled with the hydrologic model include historical analyses which show the change in hydrology as additional acres of irrigated land are added to water sheds. The first order change in hydrology is computed in terms of changes in the Water Availability Stress Index (WASSI) which is the ratio of water demand (irrigation, public water supply, industrial use, etc.) and water availability from the hydrologic model. Also

Evaluating long-term cumulative hydrologic effects of forest management: a conceptual approach

Science.gov (United States)

Robert R. Ziemer

1992-01-01

It is impractical to address experimentally many aspects of cumulative hydrologic effects, since to do so would require studying large watersheds for a century or more. Monte Carlo simulations were conducted using three hypothetical 10,000-ha fifth-order forested watersheds. Most of the physical processes expressed by the model are transferable from temperate to...

Conceptual modelling of human resource evaluation process

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Negoiţă Doina Olivia

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Taking into account the highly diverse tasks which employees have to fulfil due to complex requirements of nowadays consumers, the human resource within an enterprise has become a strategic element for developing and exploiting products which meet the market expectations. Therefore, organizations encounter difficulties when approaching the human resource evaluation process. Hence, the aim of the current paper is to design a conceptual model of the aforementioned process, which allows the enterprises to develop a specific methodology. In order to design the conceptual model, Business Process Modelling instruments were employed - Adonis Community Edition Business Process Management Toolkit using the ADONIS BPMS Notation. The conceptual model was developed based on an in-depth secondary research regarding the human resource evaluation process. The proposed conceptual model represents a generic workflow (sequential and/ or simultaneously activities, which can be extended considering the enterprise’s needs regarding their requirements when conducting a human resource evaluation process. Enterprises can benefit from using software instruments for business process modelling as they enable process analysis and evaluation (predefined / specific queries and also model optimization (simulations.

Conceptual model for regional radionuclide transport from a salt dome repository: a technical memorandum

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kier, R.S.; Showalter, P.A.; Dettinger, M.D.

1980-01-01

Disposal of high-level radioactive wastes is a major environmental problem influencing further development of nuclear energy in this country. Salt domes in the Gulf Coast Basin are being investigated as repository sites. A major concern is geologic and hydrologic stability of candidate domes and potential transport of radionuclides by groundwater to the biosphere prior to their degradation to harmless levels of activity. This report conceptualizes a regional geohydrologic model for transport of radionuclides from a salt dome repository. The model considers transport pathways and the physical and chemical changes that would occur through time prior to the radionuclides reaching the biosphere. Necessary, but unknown inputs to the regional model involve entry and movement of fluids through the repository dome and across the dome-country rock interface and the effect on the dome and surrounding strata of heat generated by the radioactive wastes

A "total parameter estimation" method in the varification of distributed hydrological models

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, M.; Qin, D.; Wang, H.

2011-12-01

Conventionally hydrological models are used for runoff or flood forecasting, hence the determination of model parameters are common estimated based on discharge measurements at the catchment outlets. With the advancement in hydrological sciences and computer technology, distributed hydrological models based on the physical mechanism such as SWAT, MIKESHE, and WEP, have gradually become the mainstream models in hydrology sciences. However, the assessments of distributed hydrological models and model parameter determination still rely on runoff and occasionally, groundwater level measurements. It is essential in many countries, including China, to understand the local and regional water cycle: not only do we need to simulate the runoff generation process and for flood forecasting in wet areas, we also need to grasp the water cycle pathways and consumption process of transformation in arid and semi-arid regions for the conservation and integrated water resources management. As distributed hydrological model can simulate physical processes within a catchment, we can get a more realistic representation of the actual water cycle within the simulation model. Runoff is the combined result of various hydrological processes, using runoff for parameter estimation alone is inherits problematic and difficult to assess the accuracy. In particular, in the arid areas, such as the Haihe River Basin in China, runoff accounted for only 17% of the rainfall, and very concentrated during the rainy season from June to August each year. During other months, many of the perennial rivers within the river basin dry up. Thus using single runoff simulation does not fully utilize the distributed hydrological model in arid and semi-arid regions. This paper proposed a "total parameter estimation" method to verify the distributed hydrological models within various water cycle processes, including runoff, evapotranspiration, groundwater, and soil water; and apply it to the Haihe river basin in

Different methods for spatial interpolation of rainfall data for operational hydrology and hydrological modeling at watershed scale: a review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ly, S.

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Watershed management and hydrological modeling require data related to the very important matter of precipitation, often measured using raingages or weather stations. Hydrological models often require a preliminary spatial interpolation as part of the modeling process. The success of spatial interpolation varies according to the type of model chosen, its mode of geographical management and the resolution used. The quality of a result is determined by the quality of the continuous spatial rainfall, which ensues from the interpolation method used. The objective of this article is to review the existing methods for interpolation of rainfall data that are usually required in hydrological modeling. We review the basis for the application of certain common methods and geostatistical approaches used in interpolation of rainfall. Previous studies have highlighted the need for new research to investigate ways of improving the quality of rainfall data and ultimately, the quality of hydrological modeling.

Green roof hydrologic performance and modeling: a review.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Yanling; Babcock, Roger W

2014-01-01

Green roofs reduce runoff from impervious surfaces in urban development. This paper reviews the technical literature on green roof hydrology. Laboratory experiments and field measurements have shown that green roofs can reduce stormwater runoff volume by 30 to 86%, reduce peak flow rate by 22 to 93% and delay the peak flow by 0 to 30 min and thereby decrease pollution, flooding and erosion during precipitation events. However, the effectiveness can vary substantially due to design characteristics making performance predictions difficult. Evaluation of the most recently published study findings indicates that the major factors affecting green roof hydrology are precipitation volume, precipitation dynamics, antecedent conditions, growth medium, plant species, and roof slope. This paper also evaluates the computer models commonly used to simulate hydrologic processes for green roofs, including stormwater management model, soil water atmosphere and plant, SWMS-2D, HYDRUS, and other models that are shown to be effective for predicting precipitation response and economic benefits. The review findings indicate that green roofs are effective for reduction of runoff volume and peak flow, and delay of peak flow, however, no tool or model is available to predict expected performance for any given anticipated system based on design parameters that directly affect green roof hydrology.

Combined Economic and Hydrologic Modeling to Support Collaborative Decision Making Processes

Science.gov (United States)

Sheer, D. P.

2008-12-01

For more than a decade, the core concept of the author's efforts in support of collaborative decision making has been a combination of hydrologic simulation and multi-objective optimization. The modeling has generally been used to support collaborative decision making processes. The OASIS model developed by HydroLogics Inc. solves a multi-objective optimization at each time step using a mixed integer linear program (MILP). The MILP can be configured to include any user defined objective, including but not limited too economic objectives. For example, an estimated marginal value for water for crops and M&I use were included in the objective function to drive trades in a model of the lower Rio Grande. The formulation of the MILP, constraints and objectives, in any time step is conditional: it changes based on the value of state variables and dynamic external forcing functions, such as rainfall, hydrology, market prices, arrival of migratory fish, water temperature, etc. It therefore acts as a dynamic short term multi-objective economic optimization for each time step. MILP is capable of solving a general problem that includes a very realistic representation of the physical system characteristics in addition to the normal multi-objective optimization objectives and constraints included in economic models. In all of these models, the short term objective function is a surrogate for achieving long term multi-objective results. The long term performance for any alternative (especially including operating strategies) is evaluated by simulation. An operating rule is the combination of conditions, parameters, constraints and objectives used to determine the formulation of the short term optimization in each time step. Heuristic wrappers for the simulation program have been developed improve the parameters of an operating rule, and are initiating research on a wrapper that will allow us to employ a genetic algorithm to improve the form of the rule (conditions, constraints

Hydrological Modeling Reproducibility Through Data Management and Adaptors for Model Interoperability

Science.gov (United States)

Turner, M. A.

2015-12-01

Because of a lack of centralized planning and no widely-adopted standards among hydrological modeling research groups, research communities, and the data management teams meant to support research, there is chaos when it comes to data formats, spatio-temporal resolutions, ontologies, and data availability. All this makes true scientific reproducibility and collaborative integrated modeling impossible without some glue to piece it all together. Our Virtual Watershed Integrated Modeling System provides the tools and modeling framework hydrologists need to accelerate and fortify new scientific investigations by tracking provenance and providing adaptors for integrated, collaborative hydrologic modeling and data management. Under global warming trends where water resources are under increasing stress, reproducible hydrological modeling will be increasingly important to improve transparency and understanding of the scientific facts revealed through modeling. The Virtual Watershed Data Engine is capable of ingesting a wide variety of heterogeneous model inputs, outputs, model configurations, and metadata. We will demonstrate one example, starting from real-time raw weather station data packaged with station metadata. Our integrated modeling system will then create gridded input data via geostatistical methods along with error and uncertainty estimates. These gridded data are then used as input to hydrological models, all of which are available as web services wherever feasible. Models may be integrated in a data-centric way where the outputs too are tracked and used as inputs to "downstream" models. This work is part of an ongoing collaborative Tri-state (New Mexico, Nevada, Idaho) NSF EPSCoR Project, WC-WAVE, comprised of researchers from multiple universities in each of the three states. The tools produced and presented here have been developed collaboratively alongside watershed scientists to address specific modeling problems with an eye on the bigger picture of

Hydrologic characteristics of freshwater mussel habitat: novel insights from modeled flows

Science.gov (United States)

Drew, C. Ashton; Eddy, Michele; Kwak, Thomas J.; Cope, W. Gregory; Augspurger, Tom

2018-01-01

The ability to model freshwater stream habitat and species distributions is limited by the spatially sparse flow data available from long-term gauging stations. Flow data beyond the immediate vicinity of gauging stations would enhance our ability to explore and characterize hydrologic habitat suitability. The southeastern USA supports high aquatic biodiversity, but threats, such as landuse alteration, climate change, conflicting water-resource demands, and pollution, have led to the imperilment and legal protection of many species. The ability to distinguish suitable from unsuitable habitat conditions, including hydrologic suitability, is a key criterion for successful conservation and restoration of aquatic species. We used the example of the critically endangered Tar River Spinymussel (Parvaspina steinstansana) and associated species to demonstrate the value of modeled flow data (WaterFALL™) to generate novel insights into population structure and testable hypotheses regarding hydrologic suitability. With ordination models, we: 1) identified all catchments with potentially suitable hydrology, 2) identified 2 distinct hydrologic environments occupied by the Tar River Spinymussel, and 3) estimated greater hydrological habitat niche breadth of assumed surrogate species associates at the catchment scale. Our findings provide the first demonstrated application of complete, continuous, regional modeled hydrologic data to freshwater mussel distribution and management. This research highlights the utility of modeling and data-mining methods to facilitate further exploration and application of such modeled environmental conditions to inform aquatic species management. We conclude that such an approach can support landscape-scale management decisions that require spatial information at fine resolution (e.g., enhanced National Hydrology Dataset catchments) and broad extent (e.g., multiple river basins).

R-HyMOD: an R-package for the hydrological model HyMOD

Science.gov (United States)

Baratti, Emanuele; Montanari, Alberto

2015-04-01

A software code for the implementation of the HyMOD hydrological model [1] is presented. HyMOD is a conceptual lumped rainfall-runoff model that is based on the probability-distributed soil storage capacity principle introduced by R. J. Moore 1985 [2]. The general idea behind this model is to describe the spatial variability of some process parameters as, for instance, the soil structure or the water storage capacities, through probability distribution functions. In HyMOD, the rainfall-runoff process is represented through a nonlinear tank connected with three identical linear tanks in parallel representing the surface flow and a slow-flow tank representing groundwater flow. The model requires the optimization of five parameters: Cmax (the maximum storage capacity within the watershed), β (the degree of spatial variability of the soil moisture capacity within the watershed), α (a factor for partitioning the flow between two series of tanks) and the two residence time parameters of quick-flow and slow-flow tanks, kquick and kslow respectively. Given its relatively simplicity but robustness, the model is widely used in the literature. The input data consist of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration at the given time scale. The R-HyMOD package is composed by a 'canonical' R-function of HyMOD and a fast FORTRAN implementation. The first one can be easily modified and can be used, for instance, for educational purposes; the second part combines the R user friendly interface with a fast processing unit. [1] Boyle D.P. (2000), Multicriteria calibration of hydrological models, Ph.D. dissertation, Dep. of Hydrol. and Water Resour., Univ of Arizona, Tucson. [2] Moore, R.J., (1985), The probability-distributed principle and runoff production at point and basin scale, Hydrol. Sci. J., 30(2), 273-297.

On the role of model structure in hydrological modeling : Understanding models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Gharari, S.

2016-01-01

Modeling is an essential part of the science of hydrology. Models enable us to formulate what we know and perceive from the real world into a neat package. Rainfall-runoff models are abstract simplifications of how a catchment works. Within the research field of scientific rainfall-runoff modeling,

Teaching geographical hydrology in a non-stationary world

Science.gov (United States)

Hendriks, Martin R.; Karssenberg, Derek

2010-05-01

cooperate. Besides fieldwork, a student should also learn to make use of the many available data sets, such as google earth, or as provided by remote sensing, or automatic data loggers. In our opinion the following sequence of activities should be applied for a student to attain a desirable working knowledge level. As mentioned earlier, a student first of all needs to have sufficient classical hydrological knowledge. After this a student should be educated in using simple models, in which field knowledge is incorporated. After this, a student should learn how to build models for solving typical hydrological problems. Modelling is especially worthwhile when the model is applied to a known area, as this certifies integration of fieldwork and modelling activities. To learn how to model, tailored courses with software that provides a set of easily learned functions to match the student's conceptual thought processes are needed. It is not easy to bring theoretical, field, and modelling knowledge together, and a pitfall may be the lack of knowledge of one or more of the above. Also, a student must learn to be able to deal with uncertainties in data and models, and must be trained to deal with unpredictability. Therefore, in our opinion a modern student should strive to become an integrating specialist in all of the above mentioned fields if we are to take geographical hydrology to a higher level and if we want to come to grips with it in a non-stationary world. A student must learn to think and act in an integrative way, and for this combining classical hydrology, field hydrology and modelling at a high education level in our hydrology curricula, in our opinion, is the way to proceed.

National Identity: Conceptual models, discourses and political change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Harder, Peter

2014-01-01

of conceptual models or discourses. This is especially important in cases that involve conflictive political issues such as national and ethnic identity. The article reports on a historical project with a linguistic dimension in my department (PI Stuart Ward, cf. Ward 2004), which aims to throw light......Cognitive Linguistics has demonstrated the applicability of a conceptual approach to the understanding of political issues, cf. Lakoff (2008) and many others. From a different perspective, critical discourse analysis has approached political concepts with a focus on issues involving potentially...... divisive features such as race, class, gender and ethnic identity. Although discourses are not identical to conceptual models, conceptual models are typically manifested in discourse, and discourses are typically reflections of conceptualizations, a theme explored e.g. in Hart and Lukes (2007). As argued...

Grid based calibration of SWAT hydrological models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. Gorgan

2012-07-01

Full Text Available The calibration and execution of large hydrological models, such as SWAT (soil and water assessment tool, developed for large areas, high resolution, and huge input data, need not only quite a long execution time but also high computation resources. SWAT hydrological model supports studies and predictions of the impact of land management practices on water, sediment, and agricultural chemical yields in complex watersheds. The paper presents the gSWAT application as a web practical solution for environmental specialists to calibrate extensive hydrological models and to run scenarios, by hiding the complex control of processes and heterogeneous resources across the grid based high computation infrastructure. The paper highlights the basic functionalities of the gSWAT platform, and the features of the graphical user interface. The presentation is concerned with the development of working sessions, interactive control of calibration, direct and basic editing of parameters, process monitoring, and graphical and interactive visualization of the results. The experiments performed on different SWAT models and the obtained results argue the benefits brought by the grid parallel and distributed environment as a solution for the processing platform. All the instances of SWAT models used in the reported experiments have been developed through the enviroGRIDS project, targeting the Black Sea catchment area.

Diagnosing the impact of alternative calibration strategies on coupled hydrologic models

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, T. J.; Perera, C.; Corrigan, C.

2017-12-01

Hydrologic models represent a significant tool for understanding, predicting, and responding to the impacts of water on society and society on water resources and, as such, are used extensively in water resources planning and management. Given this important role, the validity and fidelity of hydrologic models is imperative. While extensive focus has been paid to improving hydrologic models through better process representation, better parameter estimation, and better uncertainty quantification, significant challenges remain. In this study, we explore a number of competing model calibration scenarios for simple, coupled snowmelt-runoff models to better understand the sensitivity / variability of parameterizations and its impact on model performance, robustness, fidelity, and transferability. Our analysis highlights the sensitivity of coupled snowmelt-runoff model parameterizations to alterations in calibration approach, underscores the concept of information content in hydrologic modeling, and provides insight into potential strategies for improving model robustness / fidelity.

Using the object modeling system for hydrological model development and application

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Kralisch

2005-01-01

Full Text Available State of the art challenges in sustainable management of water resources have created demand for integrated, flexible and easy to use hydrological models which are able to simulate the quantitative and qualitative aspects of the hydrological cycle with a sufficient degree of certainty. Existing models which have been de-veloped to fit these needs are often constrained to specific scales or purposes and thus can not be easily adapted to meet different challenges. As a solution for flexible and modularised model development and application, the Object Modeling System (OMS has been developed in a joint approach by the USDA-ARS, GPSRU (Fort Collins, CO, USA, USGS (Denver, CO, USA, and the FSU (Jena, Germany. The OMS provides a modern modelling framework which allows the implementation of single process components to be compiled and applied as custom tailored model assemblies. This paper describes basic principles of the OMS and its main components and explains in more detail how the problems during coupling of models or model components are solved inside the system. It highlights the integration of different spatial and temporal scales by their representation as spatial modelling entities embedded into time compound components. As an exam-ple the implementation of the hydrological model J2000 is discussed.

Towards simplification of hydrologic modeling: Identification of dominant processes

Science.gov (United States)

Markstrom, Steven; Hay, Lauren E.; Clark, Martyn P.

2016-01-01

The Precipitation–Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), a distributed-parameter hydrologic model, has been applied to the conterminous US (CONUS). Parameter sensitivity analysis was used to identify: (1) the sensitive input parameters and (2) particular model output variables that could be associated with the dominant hydrologic process(es). Sensitivity values of 35 PRMS calibration parameters were computed using the Fourier amplitude sensitivity test procedure on 110 000 independent hydrologically based spatial modeling units covering the CONUS and then summarized to process (snowmelt, surface runoff, infiltration, soil moisture, evapotranspiration, interflow, baseflow, and runoff) and model performance statistic (mean, coefficient of variation, and autoregressive lag 1). Identified parameters and processes provide insight into model performance at the location of each unit and allow the modeler to identify the most dominant process on the basis of which processes are associated with the most sensitive parameters. The results of this study indicate that: (1) the choice of performance statistic and output variables has a strong influence on parameter sensitivity, (2) the apparent model complexity to the modeler can be reduced by focusing on those processes that are associated with sensitive parameters and disregarding those that are not, (3) different processes require different numbers of parameters for simulation, and (4) some sensitive parameters influence only one hydrologic process, while others may influence many

OWL references in ORM conceptual modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Matula, Jiri; Belunek, Roman; Hunka, Frantisek

2017-07-01

Object Role Modelling methodology is the fact-based type of conceptual modelling. The aim of the paper is to emphasize a close connection to OWL documents and its possible mutual cooperation. The definition of entities or domain values is an indispensable part of the conceptual schema design procedure defined by the ORM methodology. Many of these entities are already defined in OWL documents. Therefore, it is not necessary to declare entities again, whereas it is possible to utilize references from OWL documents during modelling of information systems.

Design and experimentation of an empirical multistructure framework for accurate, sharp and reliable hydrological ensembles

Science.gov (United States)

Seiller, G.; Anctil, F.; Roy, R.

2017-09-01

This paper outlines the design and experimentation of an Empirical Multistructure Framework (EMF) for lumped conceptual hydrological modeling. This concept is inspired from modular frameworks, empirical model development, and multimodel applications, and encompasses the overproduce and select paradigm. The EMF concept aims to reduce subjectivity in conceptual hydrological modeling practice and includes model selection in the optimisation steps, reducing initial assumptions on the prior perception of the dominant rainfall-runoff transformation processes. EMF generates thousands of new modeling options from, for now, twelve parent models that share their functional components and parameters. Optimisation resorts to ensemble calibration, ranking and selection of individual child time series based on optimal bias and reliability trade-offs, as well as accuracy and sharpness improvement of the ensemble. Results on 37 snow-dominated Canadian catchments and 20 climatically-diversified American catchments reveal the excellent potential of the EMF in generating new individual model alternatives, with high respective performance values, that may be pooled efficiently into ensembles of seven to sixty constitutive members, with low bias and high accuracy, sharpness, and reliability. A group of 1446 new models is highlighted to offer good potential on other catchments or applications, based on their individual and collective interests. An analysis of the preferred functional components reveals the importance of the production and total flow elements. Overall, results from this research confirm the added value of ensemble and flexible approaches for hydrological applications, especially in uncertain contexts, and open up new modeling possibilities.

Infrastructure to Support Hydrologic Research: Information Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Lall, U.; Duffy, C j

2001-12-01

systems developed, with the goal of addressing specific hydrologic puzzles. This initiative will also support the development of methods to improve our ability to formulate conceptual and operational models for estimating hydrologic fluxes at ungaged and poorly gaged locations and time periods. Operational modeling of large scale hydrologic systems coupled to other earth systems is just now coming into vogue, and will be aggressively supported by the data initiatives at the LTHOs, and by the investment in new Measurement Technology. While we recognize that new ways of problem formulation and reduction are crucial to progress in modeling such systems, methods of "data assimilation" hold the promise for correcting the trajectories of existing models and for checking key modeling assumptions. Hence, we advance this component as part of an information system (defined through data, access and visualization tools, and numerical and statistical modeling tools) that may provide immediate improvements in hydrologic forecasting and applications. Finally, an HIS facility that embodies the components enumerated above, provides an excellent venue for the training of scientists and as a meeting place for scientists to plan new experiments, test hypothesis with data, explore improvements in models or visualization tools, and to generate new research ideas. This "think tank" component will add to the vitality of the field of hydrology as a scientific discipline.

Hydrological application of the INCA model with varying spatial resolution and nitrogen dynamics in a northern river basin

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. Rankinen

2002-01-01

Full Text Available As a first step in applying the Integrated Nitrogen model for CAtchments (INCA to the Simojoki river basin (3160 km2, this paper focuses on calibration of the hydrological part of the model and nitrogen (N dynamics in the river during the 1980s and 1990s. The model application utilised the GIS land-use and forest classification of Finland together with a recent forest inventory based on remote sensing. In the INCA model, the Hydrologically Effective Rainfall (HER is used to drive the water flow and N fluxes through the catchment system. HER was derived from the Watershed Simulation and Forecast System (WSFS. The basic component of the WSFS is a conceptual hydrological model which simulates runoff using precipitation, potential evapotranspiration and temperature data as inputs. Spatially uniform, lumped input data were calculated for the whole river basin and spatially semi-distributed input data were calculated for each of the nine sub-basins. When comparing discharges simulated by the INCA model with observed values, a better fit was obtained with the semi-distributed data than with the spatially uniform data (R2 0.78 v. 0.70 at Hosionkoski and 0.88 v. 0.78 at the river outlet. The timing of flow peaks was simulated rather well with both approaches, although the semi-distributed input data gave a more realistic simulation of low flow periods and the magnitude of spring flow peaks. The river basin has a relatively closed N cycle with low input and output fluxes of inorganic N. During 1982-2000, the average total N flux to the sea was 715 tonnes yr–1, of which 6% was NH4-N, 14% NO3-N, and 80% organic N. Annual variation in river flow and the concentrations of major N fractions in river water, and factors affecting this variation are discussed. Keywords: northern river basin, nitrogen, forest management, hydrology, dynamic modelling, semi-distributed modelling

JAMS - a software platform for modular hydrological modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Kralisch, Sven; Fischer, Christian

2015-04-01

Current challenges of understanding and assessing the impacts of climate and land use changes on environmental systems demand for an ever-increasing integration of data and process knowledge in corresponding simulation models. Software frameworks that allow for a seamless creation of integrated models based on less complex components (domain models, process simulation routines) have therefore gained increasing attention during the last decade. JAMS is an Open-Source software framework that has been especially designed to cope with the challenges of eco-hydrological modelling. This is reflected by (i) its flexible approach for representing time and space, (ii) a strong separation of process simulation components from the declarative description of more complex models using domain specific XML, (iii) powerful analysis and visualization functions for spatial and temporal input and output data, and (iv) parameter optimization and uncertainty analysis functions commonly used in environmental modelling. Based on JAMS, different hydrological and nutrient-transport simulation models were implemented and successfully applied during the last years. We will present the JAMS core concepts and give an overview of models, simulation components and support tools available for that framework. Sample applications will be used to underline the advantages of component-based model designs and to show how JAMS can be used to address the challenges of integrated hydrological modelling.

Hydrology under change: an evaluation protocol to investigate how hydrological models deal with changing catchments

Science.gov (United States)

G. Thirel; V. Andreassian; C. Perrin; J.-N. Audouy; L. Berthet; Pamela Edwards; N. Folton; C. Furusho; A. Kuentz; J. Lerat; G. Lindstrom; E. Martin; T. Mathevet; R. Merz; J. Parajka; D. Ruelland; J. Vaze

2015-01-01

Testing hydrological models under changing conditions is essential to evaluate their ability to cope with changing catchments and their suitability for impact studies. With this perspective in mind, a workshop dedicated to this issue was held at the 2013 General Assembly of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) in Göteborg, Sweden, in July 2013...

Towards simplification of hydrologic modeling: identification of dominant processes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. L. Markstrom

2016-11-01

Full Text Available parameter hydrologic model, has been applied to the conterminous US (CONUS. Parameter sensitivity analysis was used to identify: (1 the sensitive input parameters and (2 particular model output variables that could be associated with the dominant hydrologic process(es. Sensitivity values of 35 PRMS calibration parameters were computed using the Fourier amplitude sensitivity test procedure on 110 000 independent hydrologically based spatial modeling units covering the CONUS and then summarized to process (snowmelt, surface runoff, infiltration, soil moisture, evapotranspiration, interflow, baseflow, and runoff and model performance statistic (mean, coefficient of variation, and autoregressive lag 1. Identified parameters and processes provide insight into model performance at the location of each unit and allow the modeler to identify the most dominant process on the basis of which processes are associated with the most sensitive parameters. The results of this study indicate that: (1 the choice of performance statistic and output variables has a strong influence on parameter sensitivity, (2 the apparent model complexity to the modeler can be reduced by focusing on those processes that are associated with sensitive parameters and disregarding those that are not, (3 different processes require different numbers of parameters for simulation, and (4 some sensitive parameters influence only one hydrologic process, while others may influence many.

Dealing with regional hydrologic data-base limitations. Case example: the Columbia River basalts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schalla, R.; Leonhart, L.S.

1981-01-01

Limitations are encountered in assembling hydrologic data for a broad geographic region, such as the Columbia Plateau in the northwestern US, into a conceptual model of the hydrologic system. These limitations may become resonant in subsequent numerical simulations of hydrologic system behavior. Included among such data limitations are irregular spatial distributions of data, decreases in information with increasing depth from the land surface, uncertainties about the reliability of reported hydrologic data, disparities in time-dependent parameters, and lack of field verification of data. The preparation of a regional hydrologic system description, therefore, first involves a comprehensive data evaluation, wherein the data are classified and ranked in terms of their utility to the study. The results of this evaluation are essential in planning future data acquisition activities, as well as in selecting and developing models. In turn, iterative use of modeling, data refinement, and data acquisition is considered to be highly effective. The case example of preparing a hydrologic system description for the Columbia Plateau, as required for repository siting, illustrates methods of determining the accuracy of certain data, compensating for data limitations, evaluating the need for acquiring additional data, and refining data through iterative techniques. Emphasis is placed on professional subjectivity, which has proven to be essential in data base evaluation and refinement

A sensitivity analysis of regional and small watershed hydrologic models

Science.gov (United States)

Ambaruch, R.; Salomonson, V. V.; Simmons, J. W.

1975-01-01

Continuous simulation models of the hydrologic behavior of watersheds are important tools in several practical applications such as hydroelectric power planning, navigation, and flood control. Several recent studies have addressed the feasibility of using remote earth observations as sources of input data for hydrologic models. The objective of the study reported here was to determine how accurately remotely sensed measurements must be to provide inputs to hydrologic models of watersheds, within the tolerances needed for acceptably accurate synthesis of streamflow by the models. The study objective was achieved by performing a series of sensitivity analyses using continuous simulation models of three watersheds. The sensitivity analysis showed quantitatively how variations in each of 46 model inputs and parameters affect simulation accuracy with respect to five different performance indices.

Hunting Solomonoff's Swans: Exploring the Boundary Between Physics and Statistics in Hydrological Modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Nearing, G. S.

2014-12-01

Statistical models consistently out-perform conceptual models in the short term, however to account for a nonstationary future (or an unobserved past) scientists prefer to base predictions on unchanging and commutable properties of the universe - i.e., physics. The problem with physically-based hydrology models is, of course, that they aren't really based on physics - they are based on statistical approximations of physical interactions, and we almost uniformly lack an understanding of the entropy associated with these approximations. Thermodynamics is successful precisely because entropy statistics are computable for homogeneous (well-mixed) systems, and ergodic arguments explain the success of Newton's laws to describe systems that are fundamentally quantum in nature. Unfortunately, similar arguments do not hold for systems like watersheds that are heterogeneous at a wide range of scales. Ray Solomonoff formalized the situation in 1968 by showing that given infinite evidence, simultaneously minimizing model complexity and entropy in predictions always leads to the best possible model. The open question in hydrology is about what happens when we don't have infinite evidence - for example, when the future will not look like the past, or when one watershed does not behave like another. How do we isolate stationary and commutable components of watershed behavior? I propose that one possible answer to this dilemma lies in a formal combination of physics and statistics. In this talk I outline my recent analogue (Solomonoff's theorem was digital) of Solomonoff's idea that allows us to quantify the complexity/entropy tradeoff in a way that is intuitive to physical scientists. I show how to formally combine "physical" and statistical methods for model development in a way that allows us to derive the theoretically best possible model given any given physics approximation(s) and available observations. Finally, I apply an analogue of Solomonoff's theorem to evaluate the

Using Modeling Tools to Better Understand Permafrost Hydrology

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Clément Fabre

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Modification of the hydrological cycle and, subsequently, of other global cycles is expected in Arctic watersheds owing to global change. Future climate scenarios imply widespread permafrost degradation caused by an increase in air temperature, and the expected effect on permafrost hydrology is immense. This study aims at analyzing, and quantifying the daily water transfer in the largest Arctic river system, the Yenisei River in central Siberia, Russia, partially underlain by permafrost. The semi-distributed SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool hydrological model has been calibrated and validated at a daily time step in historical discharge simulations for the 2003–2014 period. The model parameters have been adjusted to embrace the hydrological features of permafrost. SWAT is shown capable to estimate water fluxes at a daily time step, especially during unfrozen periods, once are considered specific climatic and soils conditions adapted to a permafrost watershed. The model simulates average annual contribution to runoff of 263 millimeters per year (mm yr−1 distributed as 152 mm yr−1 (58% of surface runoff, 103 mm yr−1 (39% of lateral flow and 8 mm yr−1 (3% of return flow from the aquifer. These results are integrated on a reduced basin area downstream from large dams and are closer to observations than previous modeling exercises.

Hydrological catchment modelling: past, present and future

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

2007-01-01

Full Text Available This paper discusses basic issues in hydrological modelling and flood forecasting, ranging from the roles of physically-based and data-driven rainfall runoff models, to the concepts of predictive uncertainty and equifinality and their implications. The evolution of a wide range of hydrological catchment models employing the physically meaningful and data-driven approaches introduces the need for objective test beds or benchmarks to assess the merits of the different models in reconciling the alternative approaches. In addition, the paper analyses uncertainty in models and predictions by clarifying the meaning of uncertainty, by distinguishing between parameter and predictive uncertainty and by demonstrating how the concept of equifinality must be addressed by appropriate and robust inference approaches. Finally, the importance of predictive uncertainty in the decision making process is highlighted together with possible approaches aimed at overcoming the diffidence of end-users.

Improving Permafrost Hydrology Prediction Through Data-Model Integration

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, C. J.; Andresen, C. G.; Atchley, A. L.; Bolton, W. R.; Busey, R.; Coon, E.; Charsley-Groffman, L.

2017-12-01

The CMIP5 Earth System Models were unable to adequately predict the fate of the 16GT of permafrost carbon in a warming climate due to poor representation of Arctic ecosystem processes. The DOE Office of Science Next Generation Ecosystem Experiment, NGEE-Arctic project aims to reduce uncertainty in the Arctic carbon cycle and its impact on the Earth's climate system by improved representation of the coupled physical, chemical and biological processes that drive how much buried carbon will be converted to CO2 and CH4, how fast this will happen, which form will dominate, and the degree to which increased plant productivity will offset increased soil carbon emissions. These processes fundamentally depend on permafrost thaw rate and its influence on surface and subsurface hydrology through thermal erosion, land subsidence and changes to groundwater flow pathways as soil, bedrock and alluvial pore ice and massive ground ice melts. LANL and its NGEE colleagues are co-developing data and models to better understand controls on permafrost degradation and improve prediction of the evolution of permafrost and its impact on Arctic hydrology. The LANL Advanced Terrestrial Simulator was built using a state of the art HPC software framework to enable the first fully coupled 3-dimensional surface-subsurface thermal-hydrology and land surface deformation simulations to simulate the evolution of the physical Arctic environment. Here we show how field data including hydrology, snow, vegetation, geochemistry and soil properties, are informing the development and application of the ATS to improve understanding of controls on permafrost stability and permafrost hydrology. The ATS is being used to inform parameterizations of complex coupled physical, ecological and biogeochemical processes for implementation in the DOE ACME land model, to better predict the role of changing Arctic hydrology on the global climate system. LA-UR-17-26566.

Sharing hydrological knowledge: an international comparison of hydrological models in the Meuse River Basin

Science.gov (United States)

Bouaziz, Laurène; Sperna Weiland, Frederiek; Drogue, Gilles; Brauer, Claudia; Weerts, Albrecht

2015-04-01

International collaboration between institutes and universities working and studying the same transboundary basin is needed for consensus building around possible effects of climate change and climate adaptation measures. Education, experience and expert knowledge of the hydrological community have resulted in the development of a great variety of model concepts, calibration and analysis techniques. Intercomparison could be a first step into consensus modeling or an ensemble based modeling strategy. Besides these practical objectives, such an intercomparison offers the opportunity to explore different ranges of models and learn from each other, hopefully increasing the insight into the hydrological processes that play a role in the transboundary basin. In this experiment, different international research groups applied their rainfall-runoff model in the Ourthe, a Belgium sub-catchment of the Meuse. Data preparation involved the interpolation of hourly precipitation station data collected and owned by the Service Public de Wallonie1 and the freely available E-OBS dataset for daily temperature (Haylock et al., 2008). Daily temperature was disaggregated to hourly values and potential evaporation was derived with the Hargreaves formula. The data was made available to the researchers through an FTP server. The protocol for the modeling involved a split-sample calibration and validation for pre-defined periods. Objective functions for calibration were fixed but the calibration algorithm was a free choice of the research groups. The selection of calibration algorithm was considered model dependent because lumped as well as computationally less efficient distributed models were used. For each model, an ensemble of best performing parameter sets was selected and several performance metrics enabled to assess the models' abilities to simulate discharge. The aim of this experiment is to identify those model components and structures that increase model performance and may best

Evaluation of drought propagation in an ensemble mean of large-scale hydrological models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Loon, van A.F.; Huijgevoort, van M.H.J.; Lanen, van H.A.J.

2012-01-01

Hydrological drought is increasingly studied using large-scale models. It is, however, not sure whether large-scale models reproduce the development of hydrological drought correctly. The pressing question is how well do large-scale models simulate the propagation from meteorological to hydrological

An approach to measure parameter sensitivity in watershed hydrologic modeling

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Abstract Hydrologic responses vary spatially and temporally according to watershed characteristics. In this study, the hydrologic models that we developed earlier...

A framework for human-hydrologic system model development integrating hydrology and water management: application to the Cutzamala water system in Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

Wi, S.; Freeman, S.; Brown, C.

2017-12-01

This study presents a general approach to developing computational models of human-hydrologic systems where human modification of hydrologic surface processes are significant or dominant. A river basin system is represented by a network of human-hydrologic response units (HHRUs) identified based on locations where river regulations happen (e.g., reservoir operation and diversions). Natural and human processes in HHRUs are simulated in a holistic framework that integrates component models representing rainfall-runoff, river routing, reservoir operation, flow diversion and water use processes. We illustrate the approach in a case study of the Cutzamala water system (CWS) in Mexico, a complex inter-basin water transfer system supplying the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA). The human-hydrologic system model for CWS (CUTZSIM) is evaluated in terms of streamflow and reservoir storages measured across the CWS and to water supplied for MCMA. The CUTZSIM improves the representation of hydrology and river-operation interaction and, in so doing, advances evaluation of system-wide water management consequences under altered climatic and demand regimes. The integrated modeling framework enables evaluation and simulation of model errors throughout the river basin, including errors in representation of the human component processes. Heretofore, model error evaluation, predictive error intervals and the resultant improved understanding have been limited to hydrologic processes. The general framework represents an initial step towards fuller understanding and prediction of the many and varied processes that determine the hydrologic fluxes and state variables in real river basins.

Simulating runoff under changing climatic conditions: Revisiting an apparent deficiency of conceptual rainfall-runoff models

Science.gov (United States)

Fowler, Keirnan J. A.; Peel, Murray C.; Western, Andrew W.; Zhang, Lu; Peterson, Tim J.

2016-03-01

Hydrologic models have potential to be useful tools in planning for future climate variability. However, recent literature suggests that the current generation of conceptual rainfall runoff models tend to underestimate the sensitivity of runoff to a given change in rainfall, leading to poor performance when evaluated over multiyear droughts. This research revisited this conclusion, investigating whether the observed poor performance could be due to insufficient model calibration and evaluation techniques. We applied an approach based on Pareto optimality to explore trade-offs between model performance in different climatic conditions. Five conceptual rainfall runoff model structures were tested in 86 catchments in Australia, for a total of 430 Pareto analyses. The Pareto results were then compared with results from a commonly used model calibration and evaluation method, the Differential Split Sample Test. We found that the latter often missed potentially promising parameter sets within a given model structure, giving a false negative impression of the capabilities of the model. This suggests that models may be more capable under changing climatic conditions than previously thought. Of the 282[347] cases of apparent model failure under the split sample test using the lower [higher] of two model performance criteria trialed, 155[120] were false negatives. We discuss potential causes of remaining model failures, including the role of data errors. Although the Pareto approach proved useful, our aim was not to suggest an alternative calibration strategy, but to critically assess existing methods of model calibration and evaluation. We recommend caution when interpreting split sample results.

Hydrological Modeling of the Jiaoyi Watershed (China) Using HSPF Model

Science.gov (United States)

Yan, Chang-An; Zhang, Wanchang; Zhang, Zhijie

2014-01-01

A watershed hydrological model, hydrological simulation program-Fortran (HSPF), was applied to simulate the spatial and temporal variation of hydrological processes in the Jiaoyi watershed of Huaihe River Basin, the heaviest shortage of water resources and polluted area in China. The model was calibrated using the years 2001–2004 and validated with data from 2005 to 2006. Calibration and validation results showed that the model generally simulated mean monthly and daily runoff precisely due to the close matching hydrographs between simulated and observed runoff, as well as the excellent evaluation indicators such as Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), coefficient of correlation (R 2), and the relative error (RE). The similar simulation results between calibration and validation period showed that all the calibrated parameters had a certain representation in Jiaoyi watershed. Additionally, the simulation in rainy months was more accurate than the drought months. Another result in this paper was that HSPF was also capable of estimating the water balance components reasonably and realistically in space through the whole watershed. The calibrated model can be used to explore the effects of climate change scenarios and various watershed management practices on the water resources and water environment in the basin. PMID:25013863

WEB-DHM: A distributed biosphere hydrological model developed by coupling a simple biosphere scheme with a hillslope hydrological model

Science.gov (United States)

The coupling of land surface models and hydrological models potentially improves the land surface representation, benefiting both the streamflow prediction capabilities as well as providing improved estimates of water and energy fluxes into the atmosphere. In this study, the simple biosphere model 2...

Hydrological Process Simulation of Inland River Watershed: A Case Study of the Heihe River Basin with Multiple Hydrological Models

OpenAIRE

Lili Wang; Zhonggen Wang; Jingjie Yu; Yichi Zhang; Suzhen Dang

2018-01-01

Simulating the hydrological processes of an inland river basin can help provide the scientific guidance to the policies of water allocation among different subbasins and water resource management groups within the subbasins. However, it is difficult to simulate the hydrological processes of an inland river basin with hydrological models due to the non-consistent hydrological characteristics of the entire basin. This study presents a solution to this problem with a case study about the hydrolo...

Advances in Applications of Hierarchical Bayesian Methods with Hydrological Models

Science.gov (United States)

Alexander, R. B.; Schwarz, G. E.; Boyer, E. W.

2017-12-01

Mechanistic and empirical watershed models are increasingly used to inform water resource decisions. Growing access to historical stream measurements and data from in-situ sensor technologies has increased the need for improved techniques for coupling models with hydrological measurements. Techniques that account for the intrinsic uncertainties of both models and measurements are especially needed. Hierarchical Bayesian methods provide an efficient modeling tool for quantifying model and prediction uncertainties, including those associated with measurements. Hierarchical methods can also be used to explore spatial and temporal variations in model parameters and uncertainties that are informed by hydrological measurements. We used hierarchical Bayesian methods to develop a hybrid (statistical-mechanistic) SPARROW (SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes) model of long-term mean annual streamflow across diverse environmental and climatic drainages in 18 U.S. hydrological regions. Our application illustrates the use of a new generation of Bayesian methods that offer more advanced computational efficiencies than the prior generation. Evaluations of the effects of hierarchical (regional) variations in model coefficients and uncertainties on model accuracy indicates improved prediction accuracies (median of 10-50%) but primarily in humid eastern regions, where model uncertainties are one-third of those in arid western regions. Generally moderate regional variability is observed for most hierarchical coefficients. Accounting for measurement and structural uncertainties, using hierarchical state-space techniques, revealed the effects of spatially-heterogeneous, latent hydrological processes in the "localized" drainages between calibration sites; this improved model precision, with only minor changes in regional coefficients. Our study can inform advances in the use of hierarchical methods with hydrological models to improve their integration with stream

A Structural Equation Model of Conceptual Change in Physics

Science.gov (United States)

Taasoobshirazi, Gita; Sinatra, Gale M.

2011-01-01

A model of conceptual change in physics was tested on introductory-level, college physics students. Structural equation modeling was used to test hypothesized relationships among variables linked to conceptual change in physics including an approach goal orientation, need for cognition, motivation, and course grade. Conceptual change in physics…

eWaterCycle: A global operational hydrological forecasting model

Science.gov (United States)

van de Giesen, Nick; Bierkens, Marc; Donchyts, Gennadii; Drost, Niels; Hut, Rolf; Sutanudjaja, Edwin

2015-04-01

Development of an operational hyper-resolution hydrological global model is a central goal of the eWaterCycle project (www.ewatercycle.org). This operational model includes ensemble forecasts (14 days) to predict water related stress around the globe. Assimilation of near-real time satellite data is part of the intended product that will be launched at EGU 2015. The challenges come from several directions. First, there are challenges that are mainly computer science oriented but have direct practical hydrological implications. For example, we aim to make use as much as possible of existing standards and open-source software. For example, different parts of our system are coupled through the Basic Model Interface (BMI) developed in the framework of the Community Surface Dynamics Modeling System (CSDMS). The PCR-GLOBWB model, built by Utrecht University, is the basic hydrological model that is the engine of the eWaterCycle project. Re-engineering of parts of the software was needed for it to run efficiently in a High Performance Computing (HPC) environment, and to be able to interface using BMI, and run on multiple compute nodes in parallel. The final aim is to have a spatial resolution of 1km x 1km, which is currently 10 x 10km. This high resolution is computationally not too demanding but very memory intensive. The memory bottleneck becomes especially apparent for data assimilation, for which we use OpenDA. OpenDa allows for different data assimilation techniques without the need to build these from scratch. We have developed a BMI adaptor for OpenDA, allowing OpenDA to use any BMI compatible model. To circumvent memory shortages which would result from standard applications of the Ensemble Kalman Filter, we have developed a variant that does not need to keep all ensemble members in working memory. At EGU, we will present this variant and how it fits well in HPC environments. An important step in the eWaterCycle project was the coupling between the hydrological and

Hydrologic and Water Quality Model Development Using Simulink

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

James D. Bowen

2014-11-01

Full Text Available A stormwater runoff model based on the Soil Conservation Service (SCS method and a finite-volume based water quality model have been developed to investigate the use of Simulink for use in teaching and research. Simulink, a MATLAB extension, is a graphically based model development environment for system modeling and simulation. Widely used for mechanical and electrical systems, Simulink has had less use for modeling of hydrologic systems. The watershed model is being considered for use in teaching graduate-level courses in hydrology and/or stormwater modeling. Simulink’s block (data process and arrow (data transfer object model, the copy and paste user interface, the large number of existing blocks, and the absence of computer code allows students to become model developers almost immediately. The visual depiction of systems, their component subsystems, and the flow of data through the systems are ideal attributes for hands-on teaching of hydrologic and mass balance processes to today’s computer-savvy visual learners. Model development with Simulink for research purposes is also investigated. A finite volume, multi-layer pond model using the water quality kinetics present in CE-QUAL-W2 has been developed using Simulink. The model is one of the first uses of Simulink for modeling eutrophication dynamics in stratified natural systems. The model structure and a test case are presented. One use of the model for teaching a graduate-level water quality modeling class is also described.

eWaterCycle: A high resolution global hydrological model

Science.gov (United States)

van de Giesen, Nick; Bierkens, Marc; Drost, Niels; Hut, Rolf; Sutanudjaja, Edwin

2014-05-01

In 2013, the eWaterCycle project was started, which has the ambitious goal to run a high resolution global hydrological model. Starting point was the PCR-GLOBWB built by Utrecht University. The software behind this model will partially be re-engineered in order to enable to run it in a High Performance Computing (HPC) environment. The aim is to have a spatial resolution of 1km x 1km. The idea is also to run the model in real-time and forecasting mode, using data assimilation. An on-demand hydraulic model will be available for detailed flow and flood forecasting in support of navigation and disaster management. The project faces a set of scientific challenges. First, to enable the model to run in a HPC environment, model runs were analyzed to examine on which parts of the program most CPU time was spent. These parts were re-coded in Open MPI to allow for parallel processing. Different parallelization strategies are thinkable. In our case, it was decided to use watershed logic as a first step to distribute the analysis. There is rather limited recent experience with HPC in hydrology and there is much to be learned and adjusted, both on the hydrological modeling side and the computer science side. For example, an interesting early observation was that hydrological models are, due to their localized parameterization, much more memory intensive than models of sister-disciplines such as meteorology and oceanography. Because it would be deadly to have to swap information between CPU and hard drive, memory management becomes crucial. A standard Ensemble Kalman Filter (enKF) would, for example, have excessive memory demands. To circumvent these problems, an alternative to the enKF was developed that produces equivalent results. This presentation shows the most recent results from the model, including a 5km x 5km simulation and a proof of concept for the new data assimilation approach. Finally, some early ideas about financial sustainability of an operational global

Land surface modelling in hydrology and meteorology – lessons learned from the Baltic Basin

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. P. Graham

2000-01-01

Full Text Available By both tradition and purpose, the land parameterization schemes of hydrological and meteorological models differ greatly. Meteorologists are concerned primarily with solving the energy balance, whereas hydrologists are most interested in the water balance. Meteorological climate models typically have multi-layered soil parameterisation that solves temperature fluxes numerically with diffusive equations. The same approach is carried over to a similar treatment of water transport. Hydrological models are not usually so interested in soil temperatures, but must provide a reasonable representation of soil moisture to get runoff right. To treat the heterogeneity of the soil, many hydrological models use only one layer with a statistical representation of soil variability. Such a hydrological model can be used on large scales while taking subgrid variability into account. Hydrological models also include lateral transport of water – an imperative if' river discharge is to be estimated. The concept of a complexity chain for coupled modelling systems is introduced, together with considerations for mixing model components. Under BALTEX (Baltic Sea Experiment and SWECLIM (Swedish Regional Climate Modelling Programme, a large-scale hydrological model of runoff in the Baltic Basin is used to review atmospheric climate model simulations. This incorporates both the runoff record and hydrological modelling experience into atmospheric model development. Results from two models are shown. A conclusion is that the key to improved models may be less complexity. Perhaps the meteorological models should keep their multi-layered approach for modelling soil temperature, but add a simpler, yet physically consistent, hydrological approach for modelling snow processes and water transport in the soil. Keywords: land surface modelling; hydrological modelling; atmospheric climate models; subgrid variability; Baltic Basin

Numerical modeling of the agricultural-hydrologic system in Punjab, India

Science.gov (United States)

Nyblade, M.; Russo, T. A.; Zikatanov, L.; Zipp, K.

2017-12-01

The goal of food security for India's growing population is threatened by the decline in freshwater resources due to unsustainable water use for irrigation. The issue is acute in parts of Punjab, India, where small landholders produce a major quantity of India's food with declining groundwater resources. To further complicate this problem, other regions of the state are experiencing groundwater logging and salinization, and are reliant on canal systems for fresh water delivery. Due to the lack of water use records, groundwater consumption for this study is estimated with available data on crop yields, climate, and total canal water delivery. The hydrologic and agricultural systems are modeled using appropriate numerical methods and software. This is a state-wide hydrologic numerical model of Punjab that accounts for multiple aquifer layers, agricultural water demands, and interactions between the surface canal system and groundwater. To more accurately represent the drivers of agricultural production and therefore water use, we couple an economic crop optimization model with the hydrologic model. These tools will be used to assess and optimize crop choice scenarios based on farmer income, food production, and hydrologic system constraints. The results of these combined models can be used to further understand the hydrologic system response to government crop procurement policies and climate change, and to assess the effectiveness of possible water conservation solutions.

Research on Multi Hydrological Models Applicability and Modelling Data Uncertainty Analysis for Flash Flood Simulation in Hilly Area

Science.gov (United States)

Ye, L.; Wu, J.; Wang, L.; Song, T.; Ji, R.

2017-12-01

Flooding in small-scale watershed in hilly area is characterized by short time periods and rapid rise and recession due to the complex underlying surfaces, various climate type and strong effect of human activities. It is almost impossible for a single hydrological model to describe the variation of flooding in both time and space accurately for all the catchments in hilly area because the hydrological characteristics can vary significantly among different catchments. In this study, we compare the performance of 5 hydrological models with varying degrees of complexity for simulation of flash flood for 14 small-scale watershed in China in order to find the relationship between the applicability of the hydrological models and the catchments characteristics. Meanwhile, given the fact that the hydrological data is sparse in hilly area, the effect of precipitation data, DEM resolution and their interference on the uncertainty of flood simulation is also illustrated. In general, the results showed that the distributed hydrological model (HEC-HMS in this study) performed better than the lumped hydrological models. Xinajiang and API models had good simulation for the humid catchments when long-term and continuous rainfall data is provided. Dahuofang model can simulate the flood peak well while the runoff generation module is relatively poor. In addition, the effect of diverse modelling data on the simulations is not simply superposed, and there is a complex interaction effect among different modelling data. Overall, both the catchment hydrological characteristics and modelling data situation should be taken into consideration in order to choose the suitable hydrological model for flood simulation for small-scale catchment in hilly area.

Modeling the hydrologic impacts of forest harvesting on Florida flatwoods

Science.gov (United States)

Ge Sun; Hans Rierkerk; Nicholas B. Comerford

1998-01-01

The great temporal and spatial variability of pine flatwoods hydrology suggests traditional short-term field methods may not be effective in evaluating the hydrologic effects of forest management. The flatwoods model was developed, calibrated and validated specifically for the cypress wetland-pine upland landscape. The model was applied to two typical flatwoods sites...

Sensitivity of hydrological modeling to meteorological data and implications for climate change studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roy, L.G.; Roy, R.; Desrochers, G.E.; Vaillancourt, C.; Chartier, I.

2008-01-01

There are uncertainties associated with the use of hydrological models. This study aims to analyse one source of uncertainty associated with hydrological modeling, particularly in the context of climate change studies on water resources. Additional intent of this study is to compare the ability of some meteorological data sources, used in conjunction with an hydrological model, to reproduce the hydrologic regime of a watershed. A case study on a watershed of south-western Quebec, Canada using five different sources of meteorological data as input to an offline hydrological model are presented in this paper. Data used came from weather stations, NCEP reanalysis, ERA40 reanalysis and two Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) runs driven by NCEP and ERA40 reanalysis, providing atmospheric driving boundary conditions to this limited-area climate model. To investigate the sensitivity of simulated streamflow to different sources of meteorological data, we first calibrated the hydrological model with each of the meteorological data sets over the 1961-1980 period. The five different sets of parameters of the hydrological model were then used to simulate streamflow of the 1981-2000 validation period with the five meteorological data sets as inputs. The 25 simulated streamflow series have been compared to the observed streamflow of the watershed. The five meteorological data sets do not have the same ability, when used with the hydrological model, to reproduce streamflow. Our results show also that the hydrological model parameters used may have an important influence on results such as water balance, but it is linked with the differences that may have in the characteristics of the meteorological data used. For climate change impacts assessments on water resources, we have found that there is an uncertainty associated with the meteorological data used to calibrate the model. For expected changes on mean annual flows of the Chateauguay River, our results vary from a small

A fully integrated SWAT-MODFLOW hydrologic model

Science.gov (United States)

The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and MODFLOW models are being used worldwide for managing surface and groundwater water resources. The SWAT models hydrological processes occurring at the surface including shallow aquifers, while MODFLOW simulate groundwater processes. However, neither SWAT ...

Interpolation of Missing Precipitation Data Using Kernel Estimations for Hydrologic Modeling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hyojin Lee

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Precipitation is the main factor that drives hydrologic modeling; therefore, missing precipitation data can cause malfunctions in hydrologic modeling. Although interpolation of missing precipitation data is recognized as an important research topic, only a few methods follow a regression approach. In this study, daily precipitation data were interpolated using five different kernel functions, namely, Epanechnikov, Quartic, Triweight, Tricube, and Cosine, to estimate missing precipitation data. This study also presents an assessment that compares estimation of missing precipitation data through Kth nearest neighborhood (KNN regression to the five different kernel estimations and their performance in simulating streamflow using the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT hydrologic model. The results show that the kernel approaches provide higher quality interpolation of precipitation data compared with the KNN regression approach, in terms of both statistical data assessment and hydrologic modeling performance.

Modelling the effect of land use change on hydrological model ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Modelling the effect of land use change on hydrological model parameters via linearized calibration method in the upstream of Huaihe River Basin, China. ... is presented, based on the analysis of the problems of the objective function of the ...

Flexible hydrological modeling - Disaggregation from lumped catchment scale to higher spatial resolutions

Science.gov (United States)

Tran, Quoc Quan; Willems, Patrick; Pannemans, Bart; Blanckaert, Joris; Pereira, Fernando; Nossent, Jiri; Cauwenberghs, Kris; Vansteenkiste, Thomas

2015-04-01

Based on an international literature review on model structures of existing rainfall-runoff and hydrological models, a generalized model structure is proposed. It consists of different types of meteorological components, storage components, splitting components and routing components. They can be spatially organized in a lumped way, or on a grid, spatially interlinked by source-to-sink or grid-to-grid (cell-to-cell) routing. The grid size of the model can be chosen depending on the application. The user can select/change the spatial resolution depending on the needs and/or the evaluation of the accuracy of the model results, or use different spatial resolutions in parallel for different applications. Major research questions addressed during the study are: How can we assure consistent results of the model at any spatial detail? How can we avoid strong or sudden changes in model parameters and corresponding simulation results, when one moves from one level of spatial detail to another? How can we limit the problem of overparameterization/equifinality when we move from the lumped model to the spatially distributed model? The proposed approach is a step-wise one, where first the lumped conceptual model is calibrated using a systematic, data-based approach, followed by a disaggregation step where the lumped parameters are disaggregated based on spatial catchment characteristics (topography, land use, soil characteristics). In this way, disaggregation can be done down to any spatial scale, and consistently among scales. Only few additional calibration parameters are introduced to scale the absolute spatial differences in model parameters, but keeping the relative differences as obtained from the spatial catchment characteristics. After calibration of the spatial model, the accuracies of the lumped and spatial models were compared for peak, low and cumulative runoff total and sub-flows (at downstream and internal gauging stations). For the distributed models, additional

Modelling water use in global hydrological models: review, challenges and directions

Science.gov (United States)

Bierkens, M. F.; de Graaf, I.; Wada, Y.; Wanders, N.; Van Beek, L. P.

2017-12-01

During the late 1980s and early 1990s, awareness of the shortage of global water resources lead to the first detailed global water resources assessments using regional statistics of water use and observations of meteorological and hydrological variables. Shortly thereafter, the first macroscale hydrological models (MHM) appeared. In these models, blue water (i.e., surface water and renewable groundwater) availability was calculated by accumulating runoff over a stream network and comparing it with population densities or with estimated water demand for agriculture, industry and households. In this talk we review the evolution of human impact modelling in global land models with a focus on global water resources, touching upon developments of the last 15 years: i.e. calculating human water scarcity; estimating groundwater depletion; adding dams and reservoirs; fully integrating water use (demand, withdrawal, consumption, return flow) in the hydrology; simulating the effects of land use change. We show example studies for each of these steps. We identify We identify major challenges that hamper the further development of integrated water resources modelling. Examples of these are: 1) simulating reservoir operations; 2) including local infrastructure and redistribution; 3) using the correct allocations rules; 4) projecting future water demand and water use. For each of these challenges we signify promising directions for further research.

Preliminary subsurface hydrologic considerations: Columbia River Plateau Physiographic Province. Assessment of effectiveness of geologic isolation systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Veatch, M.D.

1980-04-01

This report contains a discussion of the hydrologic conditions of the Columbia River Plateau physiographic province. The Columbia River Plateau is underlain by a thick basalt sequence. The Columbia River basalt sequence contains both basalt flows and sedimentary interbeds. These sedimentary interbeds, which are layers of sedimentary rock between lava flows, are the main aquifer zones in the basalt sequence. Permeable interflow zones, involving the permeable top and/or rubble bottom of a flow, are also water-transmitting zones. A number of stratigraphic units are present in the Pasco Basin, which is in the central part of the Columbia River Plateau. At a conceptual level, the stratigraphic sequence from the surface downward can be separated into four hydrostratigraphic systems. These are: (1) the unsaturated zone, (2) the unconfined aquifer, (3) the uppermost confined aquifers, and (4) the lower Yakima basalt hydrologic sequence. A conceptual layered earth model (LEM) has been developed. The LEM represents the major types of porous media (LEM units) that may be encountered at a number of places on the Columbia Plateau, and specifically in the Pasco Basin. The conceptual LEM is not representative of the actual three-dimensional hydrostratigraphic sequence and hydrologic conditions existing at any specific site within the Columbia Plateau physiographic province. However, the LEM may be useful for gaining a better understanding of how the hydrologic regime may change as a result of disruptive events that may interact with a waste repository in geologic media

Estimation of climate change impacts on hydrology and floods in Finland

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Veijalainen, N.

2012-07-01

Climate scenarios project increases in air temperature and precipitation in Finland during the 21st century and these will results in changes in hydrology. In this thesis climate change impacts on hydrology and floods in Finland were estimated with hydrological modelling and several climate scenarios. One of the goals was to understand the influence of different processes and catchment characteristics on the hydrological response to climate change in boreal conditions. The tool of the climate change impact assessment was the conceptual hydrological model WSFS (Watershed Simulation and Forecasting System). The studies employed and compared two methods of transferring the climate change signal from climate models to the WSFS hydrological model (delta change approach and direct bias corrected Regional Climate Model (RCM) data). Direct RCM data was used to simulate transient hydrological scenarios for 1951- 2100 and the simulation results were analysed to detect changes in water balance components and trends in discharge series. The results revealed that seasonal changes in discharges in Finland were the clearest impacts of climate change. Air temperature increase will affect snow accumulation and melt, increase winter discharge and decrease spring snowmelt discharge. The impacts of climate change on floods in Finland by 2070-2099 varied considerably depending on the location, catchment characteristics, timing of the floods and climate scenario. Floods caused by spring snowmelt decreased or remained unchanged, whereas autumn and winter floods caused by precipitation increased especially in large lakes and their outflow rivers. Since estimation of climate change impacts includes uncertainties in every step of the long modelling process, the accumulated uncertainties by the end of the process become large. The large differences between results from different climate scenarios highlight the need to use several climate scenarios in climate change impact studies

Integrating retention soil filters into urban hydrologic models - Relevant processes and important parameters

Science.gov (United States)

Bachmann-Machnik, Anna; Meyer, Daniel; Waldhoff, Axel; Fuchs, Stephan; Dittmer, Ulrich

2018-04-01

Retention Soil Filters (RSFs), a form of vertical flow constructed wetlands specifically designed for combined sewer overflow (CSO) treatment, have proven to be an effective tool to mitigate negative impacts of CSOs on receiving water bodies. Long-term hydrologic simulations are used to predict the emissions from urban drainage systems during planning of stormwater management measures. So far no universally accepted model for RSF simulation exists. When simulating hydraulics and water quality in RSFs, an appropriate level of detail must be chosen for reasonable balancing between model complexity and model handling, considering the model input's level of uncertainty. The most crucial parameters determining the resultant uncertainties of the integrated sewer system and filter bed model were identified by evaluating a virtual drainage system with a Retention Soil Filter for CSO treatment. To determine reasonable parameter ranges for RSF simulations, data of 207 events from six full-scale RSF plants in Germany were analyzed. Data evaluation shows that even though different plants with varying loading and operation modes were examined, a simple model is sufficient to assess relevant suspended solids (SS), chemical oxygen demand (COD) and NH4 emissions from RSFs. Two conceptual RSF models with different degrees of complexity were assessed. These models were developed based on evaluation of data from full scale RSF plants and column experiments. Incorporated model processes are ammonium adsorption in the filter layer and degradation during subsequent dry weather period, filtration of SS and particulate COD (XCOD) to a constant background concentration and removal of solute COD (SCOD) by a constant removal rate during filter passage as well as sedimentation of SS and XCOD in the filter overflow. XCOD, SS and ammonium loads as well as ammonium concentration peaks are discharged primarily via RSF overflow not passing through the filter bed. Uncertainties of the integrated

Adaptable Web Modules to Stimulate Active Learning in Engineering Hydrology using Data and Model Simulations of Three Regional Hydrologic Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Habib, E. H.; Tarboton, D. G.; Lall, U.; Bodin, M.; Rahill-Marier, B.; Chimmula, S.; Meselhe, E. A.; Ali, A.; Williams, D.; Ma, Y.

2013-12-01

The hydrologic community has long recognized the need for broad reform in hydrologic education. A paradigm shift is critically sought in undergraduate hydrology and water resource education by adopting context-rich, student-centered, and active learning strategies. Hydrologists currently deal with intricate issues rooted in complex natural ecosystems containing a multitude of interconnected processes. Advances in the multi-disciplinary field include observational settings such as Critical Zone and Water, Sustainability and Climate Observatories, Hydrologic Information Systems, instrumentation and modeling methods. These research advances theory and practices call for similar efforts and improvements in hydrologic education. The typical, text-book based approach in hydrologic education has focused on specific applications and/or unit processes associated with the hydrologic cycle with idealizations, rather than the contextual relations in the physical processes and the spatial and temporal dynamics connecting climate and ecosystems. An appreciation of the natural variability of these processes will lead to graduates with the ability to develop independent learning skills and understanding. This appreciation cannot be gained in curricula where field components such as observational and experimental data are deficient. These types of data are also critical when using simulation models to create environments that support this type of learning. Additional sources of observations in conjunction with models and field data are key to students understanding of the challenges associated with using models to represent such complex systems. Recent advances in scientific visualization and web-based technologies provide new opportunities for the development of active learning techniques utilizing ongoing research. The overall goal of the current study is to develop visual, case-based, data and simulation driven learning experiences to instructors and students through a web

Nonlinear Prediction Model for Hydrologic Time Series Based on Wavelet Decomposition

Science.gov (United States)

Kwon, H.; Khalil, A.; Brown, C.; Lall, U.; Ahn, H.; Moon, Y.

2005-12-01

Traditionally forecasting and characterizations of hydrologic systems is performed utilizing many techniques. Stochastic linear methods such as AR and ARIMA and nonlinear ones such as statistical learning theory based tools have been extensively used. The common difficulty to all methods is the determination of sufficient and necessary information and predictors for a successful prediction. Relationships between hydrologic variables are often highly nonlinear and interrelated across the temporal scale. A new hybrid approach is proposed for the simulation of hydrologic time series combining both the wavelet transform and the nonlinear model. The present model employs some merits of wavelet transform and nonlinear time series model. The Wavelet Transform is adopted to decompose a hydrologic nonlinear process into a set of mono-component signals, which are simulated by nonlinear model. The hybrid methodology is formulated in a manner to improve the accuracy of a long term forecasting. The proposed hybrid model yields much better results in terms of capturing and reproducing the time-frequency properties of the system at hand. Prediction results are promising when compared to traditional univariate time series models. An application of the plausibility of the proposed methodology is provided and the results conclude that wavelet based time series model can be utilized for simulating and forecasting of hydrologic variable reasonably well. This will ultimately serve the purpose of integrated water resources planning and management.

Socio-hydrological modelling of floods: investigating community resilience, adaptation capacity and risk

Science.gov (United States)

Ciullo, Alessio; Viglione, Alberto; Castellarin, Attilio

2016-04-01

Changes in flood risk occur because of changes in climate and hydrology, and in societal exposure and vulnerability. Research on change in flood risk has demonstrated that the mutual interactions and continuous feedbacks between floods and societies has to be taken into account in flood risk management. The present work builds on an existing conceptual model of an hypothetical city located in the proximity of a river, along whose floodplains the community evolves over time. The model reproduces the dynamic co-evolution of four variables: flooding, population density of the flooplain, amount of structural protection measures and memory of floods. These variables are then combined in a way to mimic the temporal change of community resilience, defined as the (inverse of the) amount of time for the community to recover from a shock, and adaptation capacity, defined as ratio between damages due to subsequent events. Also, temporal changing exposure, vulnerability and probability of flooding are also modelled, which results in a dynamically varying flood-risk. Examples are provided that show how factors such as collective memory and risk taking attitude influence the dynamics of community resilience, adaptation capacity and risk.

Uncertainty analysis of hydrological modeling in a tropical area using different algorithms

Science.gov (United States)

Rafiei Emam, Ammar; Kappas, Martin; Fassnacht, Steven; Linh, Nguyen Hoang Khanh

2018-01-01

Hydrological modeling outputs are subject to uncertainty resulting from different sources of errors (e.g., error in input data, model structure, and model parameters), making quantification of uncertainty in hydrological modeling imperative and meant to improve reliability of modeling results. The uncertainty analysis must solve difficulties in calibration of hydrological models, which further increase in areas with data scarcity. The purpose of this study is to apply four uncertainty analysis algorithms to a semi-distributed hydrological model, quantifying different source of uncertainties (especially parameter uncertainty) and evaluate their performance. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tools (SWAT) eco-hydrological model was implemented for the watershed in the center of Vietnam. The sensitivity of parameters was analyzed, and the model was calibrated. The uncertainty analysis for the hydrological model was conducted based on four algorithms: Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE), Sequential Uncertainty Fitting (SUFI), Parameter Solution method (ParaSol) and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO). The performance of the algorithms was compared using P-factor and Rfactor, coefficient of determination (R 2), the Nash Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (NSE) and Percent Bias (PBIAS). The results showed the high performance of SUFI and PSO with P-factor>0.83, R-factor 0.91, NSE>0.89, and 0.18model use for policy or management decisions.

Role of conceptual models in nuclear power plant operation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Williams, M.D.; Moran, T.P.; Brown, J.S.

1982-01-01

A crucial objective in plant operation (and perhaps licensing) ought to be to explicitly train operators to develop, perhaps with computer aids, robust conceptual models of the plants they control. The question is whether we are actually able to develop robust conceptual models and validate their robustness. Cognitive science is just beginning to come to grips with this problem. This paper describes some of the evolving technology for building conceptual models of physical mechanisms and some of the implications of such models in the context of nuclear power plant operation

Modeling of hydrological processes in arid agricultural regions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jiang LI,Xiaomin MAO,Shaozhong KANG,David A. BARRY

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Understanding of hydrological processes, including consideration of interactions between vegetation growth and water transfer in the root zone, underpins efficient use of water resources in arid-zone agriculture. Water transfers take place in the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum, and include groundwater dynamics, unsaturated zone flow, evaporation/transpiration from vegetated/bare soil and surface water, agricultural canal/surface water flow and seepage, and well pumping. Models can be categorized into three classes: (1 regional distributed hydrological models with various land uses, (2 groundwater-soil-plant-atmosphere continuum models that neglect lateral water fluxes, and (3 coupled models with groundwater flow and unsaturated zone water dynamics. This review highlights, in addition, future research challenges in modeling arid-zone agricultural systems, e.g., to effectively assimilate data from remote sensing, and to fully reflect climate change effects at various model scales.

COSMO: a conceptual framework for service modelling and refinement

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Quartel, Dick; Steen, Maarten W.A.; Pokraev, S.; van Sinderen, Marten J.

This paper presents a conceptual framework for service modelling and refinement, called the COSMO (COnceptual Service MOdelling) framework. This framework provides concepts to model and reason about services, and to support operations, such as composition and discovery, which are performed on them

Impacts of correcting the inter-variable correlation of climate model outputs on hydrological modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Jie; Li, Chao; Brissette, François P.; Chen, Hua; Wang, Mingna; Essou, Gilles R. C.

2018-05-01

Bias correction is usually implemented prior to using climate model outputs for impact studies. However, bias correction methods that are commonly used treat climate variables independently and often ignore inter-variable dependencies. The effects of ignoring such dependencies on impact studies need to be investigated. This study aims to assess the impacts of correcting the inter-variable correlation of climate model outputs on hydrological modeling. To this end, a joint bias correction (JBC) method which corrects the joint distribution of two variables as a whole is compared with an independent bias correction (IBC) method; this is considered in terms of correcting simulations of precipitation and temperature from 26 climate models for hydrological modeling over 12 watersheds located in various climate regimes. The results show that the simulated precipitation and temperature are considerably biased not only in the individual distributions, but also in their correlations, which in turn result in biased hydrological simulations. In addition to reducing the biases of the individual characteristics of precipitation and temperature, the JBC method can also reduce the bias in precipitation-temperature (P-T) correlations. In terms of hydrological modeling, the JBC method performs significantly better than the IBC method for 11 out of the 12 watersheds over the calibration period. For the validation period, the advantages of the JBC method are greatly reduced as the performance becomes dependent on the watershed, GCM and hydrological metric considered. For arid/tropical and snowfall-rainfall-mixed watersheds, JBC performs better than IBC. For snowfall- or rainfall-dominated watersheds, however, the two methods behave similarly, with IBC performing somewhat better than JBC. Overall, the results emphasize the advantages of correcting the P-T correlation when using climate model-simulated precipitation and temperature to assess the impact of climate change on watershed

Comparison of global optimization approaches for robust calibration of hydrologic model parameters

Science.gov (United States)

Jung, I. W.

2015-12-01

Robustness of the calibrated parameters of hydrologic models is necessary to provide a reliable prediction of future performance of watershed behavior under varying climate conditions. This study investigated calibration performances according to the length of calibration period, objective functions, hydrologic model structures and optimization methods. To do this, the combination of three global optimization methods (i.e. SCE-UA, Micro-GA, and DREAM) and four hydrologic models (i.e. SAC-SMA, GR4J, HBV, and PRMS) was tested with different calibration periods and objective functions. Our results showed that three global optimization methods provided close calibration performances under different calibration periods, objective functions, and hydrologic models. However, using the agreement of index, normalized root mean square error, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency as the objective function showed better performance than using correlation coefficient and percent bias. Calibration performances according to different calibration periods from one year to seven years were hard to generalize because four hydrologic models have different levels of complexity and different years have different information content of hydrological observation. Acknowledgements This research was supported by a grant (14AWMP-B082564-01) from Advanced Water Management Research Program funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of Korean government.

Calibration process of highly parameterized semi-distributed hydrological model

Science.gov (United States)

Vidmar, Andrej; Brilly, Mitja

2017-04-01

Hydrological phenomena take place in the hydrological system, which is governed by nature, and are essentially stochastic. These phenomena are unique, non-recurring, and changeable across space and time. Since any river basin with its own natural characteristics and any hydrological event therein, are unique, this is a complex process that is not researched enough. Calibration is a procedure of determining the parameters of a model that are not known well enough. Input and output variables and mathematical model expressions are known, while only some parameters are unknown, which are determined by calibrating the model. The software used for hydrological modelling nowadays is equipped with sophisticated algorithms for calibration purposes without possibility to manage process by modeler. The results are not the best. We develop procedure for expert driven process of calibration. We use HBV-light-CLI hydrological model which has command line interface and coupling it with PEST. PEST is parameter estimation tool which is used widely in ground water modeling and can be used also on surface waters. Process of calibration managed by expert directly, and proportionally to the expert knowledge, affects the outcome of the inversion procedure and achieves better results than if the procedure had been left to the selected optimization algorithm. First step is to properly define spatial characteristic and structural design of semi-distributed model including all morphological and hydrological phenomena, like karstic area, alluvial area and forest area. This step includes and requires geological, meteorological, hydraulic and hydrological knowledge of modeler. Second step is to set initial parameter values at their preferred values based on expert knowledge. In this step we also define all parameter and observation groups. Peak data are essential in process of calibration if we are mainly interested in flood events. Each Sub Catchment in the model has own observations group

Determining hydrological changes in a small Arctic treeline basin using cold regions hydrological modelling and a pseudo-global warming approach

Science.gov (United States)

Krogh, S. A.; Pomeroy, J. W.

2017-12-01

Increasing temperatures are producing higher rainfall ratios, shorter snow-covered periods, permafrost thaw, more shrub coverage, more northerly treelines and greater interaction between groundwater and surface flow in Arctic basins. How these changes will impact the hydrology of the Arctic treeline environment represents a great challenge. To diagnose the future hydrology along the current Arctic treeline, a physically based cold regions model was used to simulate the hydrology of a small basin near Inuvik, Northwest Territories, Canada. The hydrological model includes hydrological processes such as snow redistribution and sublimation by wind, canopy interception of snow/rain and sublimation/evaporation, snowmelt energy balance, active layer freeze/thaw, infiltration into frozen and unfrozen soils, evapotranspiration, horizontal flow through organic terrain and snowpack, subsurface flow and streamflow routing. The model was driven with weather simulated by a high-resolution (4 km) numerical weather prediction model under two scenarios: (1) control run, using ERA-Interim boundary conditions (2001-2013) and (2) future, using a Pseudo-Global Warming (PGW) approach based on the RCP8.5 projections perturbing the control run. Transient changes in vegetation based on recent observations and ecological expectations were then used to re-parameterise the model. Historical hydrological simulations were validated against daily streamflow, snow water equivalent and active layer thickness records, showing the model's suitability in this environment. Strong annual warming ( 6 °C) and more precipitation ( 20%) were simulated by the PGW scenario, with winter precipitation and fall temperature showing the largest seasonal increase. The joint impact of climate and transient vegetation changes on snow accumulation and redistribution, evapotranspiration, active layer development, runoff generation and hydrograph characteristics are analyzed and discussed.

Evaluating post-wildfire hydrologic recovery using ParFlow in southern California

Science.gov (United States)

Lopez, S. R.; Kinoshita, A. M.; Atchley, A. L.

2016-12-01

Wildfires are naturally occurring hazards that can have catastrophic impacts. They can alter the natural processes within a watershed, such as surface runoff and subsurface water storage. Generally, post-fire hydrologic models are either one-dimensional, empirically-based models, or two-dimensional, conceptually-based models with lumped parameter distributions. These models are useful in providing runoff measurements at the watershed outlet; however, do not provide distributed hydrologic simulation at each point within the watershed. This research demonstrates how ParFlow, a three-dimensional, distributed hydrologic model can simulate post-fire hydrologic processes by representing soil burn severity (via hydrophobicity) and vegetation recovery as they vary both spatially and temporally. Using this approach, we are able to evaluate the change in post-fire water components (surface flow, lateral flow, baseflow, and evapotranspiration). This model is initially developed for a hillslope in Devil Canyon, burned in 2003 by the Old Fire in southern California (USA). The domain uses a 2m-cell size resolution over a 25 m by 25 m lateral extent. The subsurface reaches 2 m and is assigned a variable cell thickness, allowing an explicit consideration of the soil burn severity throughout the stages of recovery and vegetation regrowth. Vegetation regrowth is incorporated represented by satellite-based Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) products. The pre- and post-fire surface runoff, subsurface storage, and surface storage interactions are evaluated and will be used as a basis for developing a watershed-scale model. Long-term continuous simulations will advance our understanding of post-fire hydrological partitioning between water balance components and the spatial variability of watershed processes, providing improved guidance for post-fire watershed management.

Educational game models: conceptualization and evaluation ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Educational game models: conceptualization and evaluation. ... The Game Object Model (GOM), that marries educational theory and game design, forms the basis for the development of the Persona Outlining ... AJOL African Journals Online.

Is there a need for hydrological modelling in decision support systems for nuclear emergencies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Raskob, W.; Heling, R.; Zheleznyak, M.

2004-01-01

This paper discusses the role of hydrological modelling in decision support systems for nuclear emergencies. In particular, most recent developments such as, the radionuclide transport models integrated in to the decision support system RODOS will be explored. Recent progress in the implementation of physically-based distributed hydrological models for operational forecasting in national and supranational centres, may support a closer cooperation between national hydrological services and therefore, strengthen the use of hydrological and radiological models implemented in decision support systems. (authors)

Improving Long-term Post-wildfire hydrologic simulations using ParFlow

Science.gov (United States)

Lopez, S. R.; Kinoshita, A. M.

2015-12-01

Wildfires alter the natural hydrologic processes within a watershed. After vegetation is burned, the combustion of organic material and debris settles into the soil creating a hydrophobic layer beneath the soil surface with varying degree of thickness and depth. Vegetation regrowth rates vary as a function of radiative exposure, burn severity, and precipitation patterns. Hydrologic models used by the Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) teams use input data and model calibration constraints that are generally either one-dimensional, empirically-based models, or two-dimensional, conceptually-based models with lumped parameter distributions. These models estimate runoff measurements at the watershed outlet; however, do not provide a distributed hydrologic simulation at each point within the watershed. This work uses ParFlow, a three-dimensional, distributed hydrologic model to (1) correlate burn severity with hydrophobicity, (2) evaluate vegetation recovery rate on water components, and (3) improve flood prediction for managers to help with resource allocation and management operations in burned watersheds. ParFlow is applied to Devil Canyon (43 km2) in San Bernardino, California, which was 97% burned in the 2003 Old Fire. The model set-up uses a 30m-cell size resolution over a 6.7 km by 6.4 km lateral extent. The subsurface reaches 30 m and is assigned a variable cell thickness. Variable subsurface thickness allows users to explicitly consider the degree of recovery throughout the stages of regrowth. Burn severity maps from remotely sensed imagery are used to assign initial hydrophobic layer parameters and thickness. Vegetation regrowth is represented with satellite an Enhanced Vegetation Index. Pre and post-fire hydrologic response is evaluated using runoff measurements at the watershed outlet, and using water component (overland flow, lateral flow, baseflow) measurements.

Hydrological scenarios of future seasonal runoff distribution in Central Slovakia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hlavcova, K; Szolgay, J; Kohnova, S; Balint, G

2008-01-01

The hydrological scenarios of future seasonal distributions of runoff in the upper Hron River basin, which was chosen as a representative mountainous region in Central Slovakia, were evaluated. Changes in the future climate were expressed by three different climate change scenarios developed within the framework of the Central and Eastern Europe Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability Assessment Project (CECILIA). The climate change scenarios were constructed using the pattern scaling method from the outputs of transient simulations made by 3 GCMs - ECHAM4/OPYC3, HadCM2 and NCAR DOE-PCM. A conceptual hydrological balance model calibrated with data from the period 1971-2000 was used for modelling changes in runoff with monthly time steps. The runoff change scenarios for the selected basin in the future time horizons of 2025, 2050 and 2100 show changes in the seasonal runoff distribution.

Coupling meteorological and hydrological models for flood forecasting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bartholmes

2005-01-01

Full Text Available This paper deals with the problem of analysing the coupling of meteorological meso-scale quantitative precipitation forecasts with distributed rainfall-runoff models to extend the forecasting horizon. Traditionally, semi-distributed rainfall-runoff models have been used for real time flood forecasting. More recently, increased computer capabilities allow the utilisation of distributed hydrological models with mesh sizes from tenths of metres to a few kilometres. On the other hand, meteorological models, providing the quantitative precipitation forecast, tend to produce average values on meshes ranging from slightly less than 10 to 200 kilometres. Therefore, to improve the quality of flood forecasts, the effects of coupling the meteorological and the hydrological models at different scales were analysed. A distributed hydrological model (TOPKAPI was developed and calibrated using a 1x1 km mesh for the case of the river Po closed at Ponte Spessa (catchment area c. 37000 km2. The model was then coupled with several other European meteorological models ranging from the Limited Area Models (provided by DMI and DWD with resolutions from 0.0625° * 0.0625°, to the ECMWF ensemble predictions with a resolution of 1.85° * 1.85°. Interesting results, describing the coupled model behaviour, are available for a meteorological extreme event in Northern Italy (Nov. 1994. The results demonstrate the poor reliability of the quantitative precipitation forecasts produced by meteorological models presently available; this is not resolved using the Ensemble Forecasting technique, when compared with results obtainable with measured rainfall.

A conceptual framework for assessing cumulative impacts on the hydrology of nontidal wetlands

Science.gov (United States)

Winter, Thomas C.

1988-01-01

Wetlands occur in geologic and hydrologic settings that enhance the accumulation or retention of water. Regional slope, local relief, and permeability of the land surface are major controls on the formation of wetlands by surface-water sources. However, these landscape features also have significant control over groundwater flow systems, which commonly play a role in the formation of wetlands. Because the hydrologic system is a continuum, any modification of one component will have an effect on contiguous components. Disturbances commonly affecting the hydrologic system as it relates to wetlands include weather modification, alteration of plant communities, storage of surface water, road construction, drainage of surface water and soil water, alteration of groundwater recharge and discharge areas, and pumping of groundwater. Assessments of the cumulative effects of one or more of these disturbances on the hydrologic system as related to wetlands must take into account uncertainty in the measurements and in the assumptions that are made in hydrologic studies. For example, it may be appropriate to assume that regional groundwater flow systems are recharged in uplands and discharged in lowlands. However, a similar assumption commonly does not apply on a local scale, because of the spatial and temporal dynamics of groundwater recharge. Lack of appreciation of such hydrologic factors can lead to misunderstanding of the hydrologic function of wetlands within various parts of the landscape and mismanagement of wetland ecosystems.

Impact of vegetation dynamics on hydrological processes in a semi-arid basin by using a land surface-hydrology coupled model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jiao, Yang; Lei, Huimin; Yang, Dawen; Huang, Maoyi; Liu, Dengfeng; Yuan, Xing

2017-08-01

Land surface models (LSMs) are widely used to understand the interactions between hydrological processes and vegetation dynamics, which is important for the attribution and prediction of regional hydrological variations. However, most LSMs have large uncertainties in their representations of ecohydrological processes due to deficiencies in hydrological parameterizations. In this study, the Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) LSM was modified with an advanced runoff generation and flow routing scheme, resulting in a new land surface-hydrology coupled model, CLM-GBHM. Both models were implemented in the Wudinghe River Basin (WRB), which is a semi-arid basin located in the middle reaches of the Yellow River, China. Compared with CLM, CLM-GBHM increased the Nash Sutcliffe efficiency for daily river discharge simulation (1965–1969) from 0.03 to 0.23 and reduced the relative bias in water table depth simulations (2010–2012) from 32.4% to 13.4%. The CLM-GBHM simulations with static, remotely sensed and model-predicted vegetation conditions showed that the vegetation in the WRB began to recover in the 2000s due to the Grain for Green Program but had not reached the same level of vegetation cover as regions in natural eco-hydrological equilibrium. Compared with a simulation using remotely sensed vegetation cover, the simulation with a dynamic vegetation model that considers only climate-induced change showed a 10.3% increase in evapotranspiration, a 47.8% decrease in runoff, and a 62.7% and 71.3% deceleration in changing trend of the outlet river discharge before and after the year 2000, respectively. This result suggests that both natural and anthropogenic factors should be incorporated in dynamic vegetation models to better simulate the eco-hydrological cycle.

Conceptual Models in Health Informatics Research: A Literature Review and Suggestions for Development.

Science.gov (United States)

Gray, Kathleen; Sockolow, Paulina

2016-02-24

Contributing to health informatics research means using conceptual models that are integrative and explain the research in terms of the two broad domains of health science and information science. However, it can be hard for novice health informatics researchers to find exemplars and guidelines in working with integrative conceptual models. The aim of this paper is to support the use of integrative conceptual models in research on information and communication technologies in the health sector, and to encourage discussion of these conceptual models in scholarly forums. A two-part method was used to summarize and structure ideas about how to work effectively with conceptual models in health informatics research that included (1) a selective review and summary of the literature of conceptual models; and (2) the construction of a step-by-step approach to developing a conceptual model. The seven-step methodology for developing conceptual models in health informatics research explained in this paper involves (1) acknowledging the limitations of health science and information science conceptual models; (2) giving a rationale for one's choice of integrative conceptual model; (3) explicating a conceptual model verbally and graphically; (4) seeking feedback about the conceptual model from stakeholders in both the health science and information science domains; (5) aligning a conceptual model with an appropriate research plan; (6) adapting a conceptual model in response to new knowledge over time; and (7) disseminating conceptual models in scholarly and scientific forums. Making explicit the conceptual model that underpins a health informatics research project can contribute to increasing the number of well-formed and strongly grounded health informatics research projects. This explication has distinct benefits for researchers in training, research teams, and researchers and practitioners in information, health, and other disciplines.

Mathematical modelling of fracture hydrology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rae, J.; Hodgkinson, D.P.; Robinson, P.C.; Herbert, A.W.

1984-04-01

This progress report contains notes on three aspects of hydrological modelling. Work on hydrodynamic dispersion in fractured media has been extended to transverse dispersion. Further work has been done on diffusion into the rock matrix and its effect on solute transport. The program NAMSOL has been used for the MIRAGE code comparison exercise being organised by Atkins R and D. (author)

Hillslope hydrological modeling : the role of bedrock geometry and hillslope-stream interaction

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Shahedi, K.

2008-01-01

Keywords: Hillslope hydrology, hydrological modeling, bedrock geometry, boundary condition, numerical solution.

This thesis focuses on hillslope subsurface flow as a dominant control on the hydrological processes defining the catchment response to rainfall. Due to the difficulties

Improved Regional Climate Model Simulation of Precipitation by a Dynamical Coupling to a Hydrology Model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsen, Morten Andreas Dahl; Drews, Martin; Hesselbjerg Christensen, Jens

convective precipitation systems. As a result climate model simulations let alone future projections of precipitation often exhibit substantial biases. Here we show that the dynamical coupling of a regional climate model to a detailed fully distributed hydrological model - including groundwater-, overland...... of local precipitation dynamics are seen for time scales of app. Seasonal duration and longer. We show that these results can be attributed to a more complete treatment of land surface feedbacks. The local scale effect on the atmosphere suggests that coupled high-resolution climate-hydrology models...... including a detailed 3D redistribution of sub- and land surface water have a significant potential for improving climate projections even diminishing the need for bias correction in climate-hydrology studies....

Investigation of the transferability of hydrological models and a method to improve model calibration

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. Hartmann

2005-01-01

Full Text Available In order to find a model parameterization such that the hydrological model performs well even under different conditions, appropriate model performance measures have to be determined. A common performance measure is the Nash Sutcliffe efficiency. Usually it is calculated comparing observed and modelled daily values. In this paper a modified version is suggested in order to calibrate a model on different time scales simultaneously (days up to years. A spatially distributed hydrological model based on HBV concept was used. The modelling was applied on the Upper Neckar catchment, a mesoscale river in south western Germany with a basin size of about 4000 km2. The observation period 1961-1990 was divided into four different climatic periods, referred to as "warm", "cold", "wet" and "dry". These sub periods were used to assess the transferability of the model calibration and of the measure of performance. In a first step, the hydrological model was calibrated on a certain period and afterwards applied on the same period. Then, a validation was performed on the climatologically opposite period than the calibration, e.g. the model calibrated on the cold period was applied on the warm period. Optimal parameter sets were identified by an automatic calibration procedure based on Simulated Annealing. The results show, that calibrating a hydrological model that is supposed to handle short as well as long term signals becomes an important task. Especially the objective function has to be chosen very carefully.

Simulations of ecosystem hydrological processes using a unified multi-scale model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yang, Xiaofan; Liu, Chongxuan; Fang, Yilin; Hinkle, Ross; Li, Hong-Yi; Bailey, Vanessa; Bond-Lamberty, Ben

2015-01-01

This paper presents a unified multi-scale model (UMSM) that we developed to simulate hydrological processes in an ecosystem containing both surface water and groundwater. The UMSM approach modifies the Navier–Stokes equation by adding a Darcy force term to formulate a single set of equations to describe fluid momentum and uses a generalized equation to describe fluid mass balance. The advantage of the approach is that the single set of the equations can describe hydrological processes in both surface water and groundwater where different models are traditionally required to simulate fluid flow. This feature of the UMSM significantly facilitates modelling of hydrological processes in ecosystems, especially at locations where soil/sediment may be frequently inundated and drained in response to precipitation, regional hydrological and climate changes. In this paper, the UMSM was benchmarked using WASH123D, a model commonly used for simulating coupled surface water and groundwater flow. Disney Wilderness Preserve (DWP) site at the Kissimmee, Florida, where active field monitoring and measurements are ongoing to understand hydrological and biogeochemical processes, was then used as an example to illustrate the UMSM modelling approach. The simulations results demonstrated that the DWP site is subject to the frequent changes in soil saturation, the geometry and volume of surface water bodies, and groundwater and surface water exchange. All the hydrological phenomena in surface water and groundwater components including inundation and draining, river bank flow, groundwater table change, soil saturation, hydrological interactions between groundwater and surface water, and the migration of surface water and groundwater interfaces can be simultaneously simulated using the UMSM. Overall, the UMSM offers a cross-scale approach that is particularly suitable to simulate coupled surface and ground water flow in ecosystems with strong surface water and groundwater interactions.

Analysing the temporal dynamics of model performance for hydrological models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Reusser, D.E.; Blume, T.; Schaefli, B.; Zehe, E.

2009-01-01

The temporal dynamics of hydrological model performance gives insights into errors that cannot be obtained from global performance measures assigning a single number to the fit of a simulated time series to an observed reference series. These errors can include errors in data, model parameters, or

Advancements in Hydrology and Erosion Process Understanding and Post-Fire Hydrologic and Erosion Model Development for Semi-Arid Landscapes

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, C. Jason; Pierson, Frederick B.; Al-Hamdan, Osama Z.; Robichaud, Peter R.; Nearing, Mark A.; Hernandez, Mariano; Weltz, Mark A.; Spaeth, Kenneth E.; Goodrich, David C.

2017-04-01

Fire activity continues to increase in semi-arid regions around the globe. Private and governmental land management entities are challenged with predicting and mitigating post-fire hydrologic and erosion responses on these landscapes. For more than a decade, a team of scientists with the US Department of Agriculture has collaborated on extensive post-fire hydrologic field research and the application of field research to development of post-fire hydrology and erosion predictive technologies. Experiments funded through this research investigated the impacts of fire on vegetation and soils and the effects of these fire-induced changes on infiltration, runoff generation, erodibility, and soil erosion processes. The distribution of study sites spans diverse topography across grassland, shrubland, and woodland landscapes throughout the western United States. Knowledge gleaned from the extensive field experiments was applied to develop and enhance physically-based models for hillslope- to watershed-scale runoff and erosion prediction. Our field research and subsequent data syntheses have identified key knowledge gaps and challenges regarding post-fire hydrology and erosion modeling. Our presentation details some consistent trends across a diverse domain and varying landscape conditions based on our extensive field campaigns. We demonstrate how field data have advanced our understanding of post-fire hydrology and erosion for semi-arid landscapes and highlight remaining key knowledge gaps. Lastly, we briefly show how our well-replicated experimental methodologies have contributed to advancements in hydrologic and erosion model development for the post-fire environment.

Distributed Hydrologic Modeling Apps for Decision Support in the Cloud

Science.gov (United States)

Swain, N. R.; Latu, K.; Christiensen, S.; Jones, N.; Nelson, J.

2013-12-01

Advances in computation resources and greater availability of water resources data represent an untapped resource for addressing hydrologic uncertainties in water resources decision-making. The current practice of water authorities relies on empirical, lumped hydrologic models to estimate watershed response. These models are not capable of taking advantage of many of the spatial datasets that are now available. Physically-based, distributed hydrologic models are capable of using these data resources and providing better predictions through stochastic analysis. However, there exists a digital divide that discourages many science-minded decision makers from using distributed models. This divide can be spanned using a combination of existing web technologies. The purpose of this presentation is to present a cloud-based environment that will offer hydrologic modeling tools or 'apps' for decision support and the web technologies that have been selected to aid in its implementation. Compared to the more commonly used lumped-parameter models, distributed models, while being more intuitive, are still data intensive, computationally expensive, and difficult to modify for scenario exploration. However, web technologies such as web GIS, web services, and cloud computing have made the data more accessible, provided an inexpensive means of high-performance computing, and created an environment for developing user-friendly apps for distributed modeling. Since many water authorities are primarily interested in the scenario exploration exercises with hydrologic models, we are creating a toolkit that facilitates the development of a series of apps for manipulating existing distributed models. There are a number of hurdles that cloud-based hydrologic modeling developers face. One of these is how to work with the geospatial data inherent with this class of models in a web environment. Supporting geospatial data in a website is beyond the capabilities of standard web frameworks and it

Diagnosis of the hydrology of a small Arctic basin at the tundra-taiga transition using a physically based hydrological model

Science.gov (United States)

Krogh, Sebastian A.; Pomeroy, John W.; Marsh, Philip

2017-07-01

A better understanding of cold regions hydrological processes and regimes in transitional environments is critical for predicting future Arctic freshwater fluxes under climate and vegetation change. A physically based hydrological model using the Cold Regions Hydrological Model platform was created for a small Arctic basin in the tundra-taiga transition region. The model represents snow redistribution and sublimation by wind and vegetation, snowmelt energy budget, evapotranspiration, subsurface flow through organic terrain, infiltration to frozen soils, freezing and thawing of soils, permafrost and streamflow routing. The model was used to reconstruct the basin water cycle over 28 years to understand and quantify the mass fluxes controlling its hydrological regime. Model structure and parameters were set from the current understanding of Arctic hydrology, remote sensing, field research in the basin and region, and calibration against streamflow observations. Calibration was restricted to subsurface hydraulic and storage parameters. Multi-objective evaluation of the model using observed streamflow, snow accumulation and ground freeze/thaw state showed adequate simulation. Significant spatial variability in the winter mass fluxes was found between tundra, shrubs and forested sites, particularly due to the substantial blowing snow redistribution and sublimation from the wind-swept upper basin, as well as sublimation of canopy intercepted snow from the forest (about 17% of snowfall). At the basin scale, the model showed that evapotranspiration is the largest loss of water (47%), followed by streamflow (39%) and sublimation (14%). The models streamflow performance sensitivity to a set of parameter was analysed, as well as the mean annual mass balance uncertainty associated with these parameters.

Significant uncertainty in global scale hydrological modeling from precipitation data erros

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sperna Weiland, F.; Vrugt, J.A.; Beek, van P.H.; Weerts, A.H.; Bierkens, M.F.P.

2015-01-01

In the past decades significant progress has been made in the fitting of hydrologic models to data. Most of this work has focused on simple, CPU-efficient, lumped hydrologic models using discharge, water table depth, soil moisture, or tracer data from relatively small river basins. In this paper, we

Significant uncertainty in global scale hydrological modeling from precipitation data errors

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Weiland, Frederiek C. Sperna; Vrugt, Jasper A.; van Beek, Rens (L. ) P. H.; Weerts, Albrecht H.; Bierkens, Marc F. P.

2015-01-01

In the past decades significant progress has been made in the fitting of hydrologic models to data. Most of this work has focused on simple, CPU-efficient, lumped hydrologic models using discharge, water table depth, soil moisture, or tracer data from relatively small river basins. In this paper, we

Calibration by Hydrological Response Unit of a National Hydrologic Model to Improve Spatial Representation and Distribution of Parameters

Science.gov (United States)

Norton, P. A., II

2015-12-01

The U. S. Geological Survey is developing a National Hydrologic Model (NHM) to support consistent hydrologic modeling across the conterminous United States (CONUS). The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) simulates daily hydrologic and energy processes in watersheds, and is used for the NHM application. For PRMS each watershed is divided into hydrologic response units (HRUs); by default each HRU is assumed to have a uniform hydrologic response. The Geospatial Fabric (GF) is a database containing initial parameter values for input to PRMS and was created for the NHM. The parameter values in the GF were derived from datasets that characterize the physical features of the entire CONUS. The NHM application is composed of more than 100,000 HRUs from the GF. Selected parameter values commonly are adjusted by basin in PRMS using an automated calibration process based on calibration targets, such as streamflow. Providing each HRU with distinct values that captures variability within the CONUS may improve simulation performance of the NHM. During calibration of the NHM by HRU, selected parameter values are adjusted for PRMS based on calibration targets, such as streamflow, snow water equivalent (SWE) and actual evapotranspiration (AET). Simulated SWE, AET, and runoff were compared to value ranges derived from multiple sources (e.g. the Snow Data Assimilation System, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (i.e. MODIS) Global Evapotranspiration Project, the Simplified Surface Energy Balance model, and the Monthly Water Balance Model). This provides each HRU with a distinct set of parameter values that captures the variability within the CONUS, leading to improved model performance. We present simulation results from the NHM after preliminary calibration, including the results of basin-level calibration for the NHM using: 1) default initial GF parameter values, and 2) parameter values calibrated by HRU.

Long Memory Models to Generate Synthetic Hydrological Series

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Guilherme Armando de Almeida Pereira

2014-01-01

Full Text Available In Brazil, much of the energy production comes from hydroelectric plants whose planning is not trivial due to the strong dependence on rainfall regimes. This planning is accomplished through optimization models that use inputs such as synthetic hydrologic series generated from the statistical model PAR(p (periodic autoregressive. Recently, Brazil began the search for alternative models able to capture the effects that the traditional model PAR(p does not incorporate, such as long memory effects. Long memory in a time series can be defined as a significant dependence between lags separated by a long period of time. Thus, this research develops a study of the effects of long dependence in the series of streamflow natural energy in the South subsystem, in order to estimate a long memory model capable of generating synthetic hydrologic series.

Hydrologic modeling and field testing at Yucca mountain, Nevada

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoxie, D.T.

1991-01-01

Yucca Mountain, Nevada, is being evaluated as a possible site for a mined geologic repository for the disposal of high-level nuclear waste. The repository is proposed to be constructed in fractured, densely welded tuff within the thick (500 to 750 meters) unsaturated zone at the site. Characterization of the site unsaturated-zone hydrogeologic system requires quantitative specification of the existing state of the system and the development of numerical hydrologic models to predict probable evolution of the hydrogeologic system over the lifetime of the repository. To support development of hydrologic models for the system, a testing program has been designed to characterize the existing state of the system, to measure hydrologic properties for the system and to identify and quantify those processes that control system dynamics. 12 refs

Hydrological modelling of a slope covered with shallow pyroclastic deposits from field monitoring data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Greco

2013-10-01

Full Text Available A one-dimensional hydrological model of a slope covered with pyroclastic materials is proposed. The soil cover is constituted by layers of loose volcanic ashes and pumices, with a total thickness between 1.8 m and 2.5 m, lying upon a fractured limestone bedrock. The mean inclination of the slope is around 40°, slightly larger than the friction angle of the ashes. Thus, the equilibrium of the slope, significantly affected by the cohesive contribution exerted by soil suction in unsaturated conditions, may be altered by rainfall infiltration. The model assumes a single homogeneous soil layer occupying the entire depth of the cover, and takes into account seasonally variable canopy interception of precipitation and root water uptake by vegetation, mainly constituted by deciduous chestnut woods with a dense underbrush growing during late spring and summer. The bottom boundary condition links water potential at the soil–bedrock interface with the fluctuations of the water table of the aquifer located in the fractured limestone, which is conceptually modelled as a linear reservoir. Most of the model parameters have been assigned according to literature indications or from experimental data. Soil suction and water content data measured between 1 January 2011 and 20 July 2011 at a monitoring station installed along the slope allowed the remaining parameters to be identified. The calibrated model, which reproduced very closely the data of the calibration set, has been applied to the simulation of the hydrological response of the slope to the hourly precipitation record of 1999, when a large flow-like landslide was triggered close to the monitored location. The simulation results show that the lowest soil suction ever attained occurred just at the time the landslide was triggered, indicating that the model is capable of predicting slope failure conditions.

Conceptual models in the field of library catalogues

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marija Petek

2000-01-01

Full Text Available The publishing world is changing quickly and so must also bibliographic control. It is tirne to re-examine cataloguing rules and MARC formats. This can be done by the method of conceptual modelling. Some conceptual models are presented; an IFLA study on the functional requirements for bibliographic records is described in detail.

Assessing climate change impact by integrated hydrological modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Lajer Hojberg, Anker; Jørgen Henriksen, Hans; Olsen, Martin; der Keur Peter, van; Seaby, Lauren Paige; Troldborg, Lars; Sonnenborg, Torben; Refsgaard, Jens Christian

2013-04-01

Future climate may have a profound effect on the freshwater cycle, which must be taken into consideration by water management for future planning. Developments in the future climate are nevertheless uncertain, thus adding to the challenge of managing an uncertain system. To support the water managers at various levels in Denmark, the national water resources model (DK-model) (Højberg et al., 2012; Stisen et al., 2012) was used to propagate future climate to hydrological response under considerations of the main sources of uncertainty. The DK-model is a physically based and fully distributed model constructed on the basis of the MIKE SHE/MIKE11 model system describing groundwater and surface water systems and the interaction between the domains. The model has been constructed for the entire 43.000 km2 land area of Denmark only excluding minor islands. Future climate from General Circulation Models (GCM) was downscaled by Regional Climate Models (RCM) by a distribution-based scaling method (Seaby et al., 2012). The same dataset was used to train all combinations of GCM-RCMs and they were found to represent the mean and variance at the seasonal basis equally well. Changes in hydrological response were computed by comparing the short term development from the period 1990 - 2010 to 2021 - 2050, which is the time span relevant for water management. To account for uncertainty in future climate predictions, hydrological response from the DK-model using nine combinations of GCMs and RCMs was analysed for two catchments representing the various hydrogeological conditions in Denmark. Three GCM-RCM combinations displaying high, mean and low future impacts were selected as representative climate models for which climate impact studies were carried out for the entire country. Parameter uncertainty was addressed by sensitivity analysis and was generally found to be of less importance compared to the uncertainty spanned by the GCM-RCM combinations. Analysis of the simulations

On the importance of methods in hydrological modelling. Perspectives from a case study

Science.gov (United States)

Fenicia, Fabrizio; Kavetski, Dmitri

2017-04-01

The hydrological community generally appreciates that developing any non-trivial hydrological model requires a multitude of modelling choices. These choices may range from a (seemingly) straightforward application of mass conservation, to the (often) guesswork-like selection of constitutive functions, parameter values, etc. The application of a model itself requires a myriad of methodological choices - the selection of numerical solvers, objective functions for model calibration, validation approaches, performance metrics, etc. Not unreasonably, hydrologists embarking on ever ambitious projects prioritize hydrological insight over the morass of methodological choices. Perhaps to emphasize "ideas" over "methods", some journals have even reduced the fontsize of the methodology sections of its articles. However, the very nature of modelling is that seemingly routine methodological choices can significantly affect the conclusions of case studies and investigations - making it dangerous to skimp over methodological details in an enthusiastic rush towards the next great hydrological idea. This talk shares modelling insights from a hydrological study of a 300 km2 catchment in Luxembourg, where the diversity of hydrograph dynamics observed at 10 locations begs the question of whether external forcings or internal catchment properties act as dominant controls on streamflow generation. The hydrological insights are fascinating (at least to us), but in this talk we emphasize the impact of modelling methodology on case study conclusions and recommendations. How did we construct our prior set of hydrological model hypotheses? What numerical solver was implemented and why was an objective function based on Bayesian theory deployed? And what would have happened had we omitted model cross-validation, or not used a systematic hypothesis testing approach?

Use of Isotopic Techniques for the Assessment of Hydrological Interaction Surface Water and Groundwater. Rio Man - Cienaga Colombia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Palacio B, P.; Betancur V, T.; Dapena, C.

2011-01-01

This job integrates the first results from the studies ''Conceptual Hydrological Model for the middle and lower parts of the Man River basin using hydrological, hydrochemical and isotopic techniques'' (Palacio, 2011) and ''Hydrochemical and Isotopic techniques for the assessment of hydrological processes in the the wetlands of Bajo Cauca Antioquia'' (University of Antioquia and International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The Man river basin covers an area of 688 km 2 ; with temperatures ranging from 25 to 30 o C; The average annual rainfall is 2.800 mm. The geology of the area is composed mainly of clastic sedimentary rocks of continental origin. A hydrological model of interaction between surface water and groundwater for the lower middle of the Man River basin was obtained by the use of hydrological analysis techniques. This model was refined, adjusted and validated using isotope techniques based mainly on the analysis of spatial and temporal variance of stable isotopes found in rain water, surface bodies of water such as streams and wetlands, and in an unconfined aquifer.

Climate change impact on available water resources obtained using multiple global climate and hydrology models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Hagemann

2013-05-01

Full Text Available Climate change is expected to alter the hydrological cycle resulting in large-scale impacts on water availability. However, future climate change impact assessments are highly uncertain. For the first time, multiple global climate (three and hydrological models (eight were used to systematically assess the hydrological response to climate change and project the future state of global water resources. This multi-model ensemble allows us to investigate how the hydrology models contribute to the uncertainty in projected hydrological changes compared to the climate models. Due to their systematic biases, GCM outputs cannot be used directly in hydrological impact studies, so a statistical bias correction has been applied. The results show a large spread in projected changes in water resources within the climate–hydrology modelling chain for some regions. They clearly demonstrate that climate models are not the only source of uncertainty for hydrological change, and that the spread resulting from the choice of the hydrology model is larger than the spread originating from the climate models over many areas. But there are also areas showing a robust change signal, such as at high latitudes and in some midlatitude regions, where the models agree on the sign of projected hydrological changes, indicative of higher confidence in this ensemble mean signal. In many catchments an increase of available water resources is expected but there are some severe decreases in Central and Southern Europe, the Middle East, the Mississippi River basin, southern Africa, southern China and south-eastern Australia.

Hydrological Modelling using HEC-HMS for Flood Risk Assessment of Segamat Town, Malaysia

Science.gov (United States)

Romali, N. S.; Yusop, Z.; Ismail, A. Z.

2018-03-01

This paper presents an assessment of the applicability of using Hydrologic Modelling System developed by the Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC-HMS) for hydrological modelling of Segamat River. The objective of the model application is to assist in the assessment of flood risk by providing the peak flows of 2011 Segamat flood for the generation of flood mapping of Segamat town. The capability of the model was evaluated by comparing the historical observed data with the simulation results of the selected flood events. The model calibration and validation efficiency was verified using Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient. The results demonstrate the interest to implement the hydrological model for assessing flood risk where the simulated peak flow result is in agreement with historical observed data. The model efficiency of the calibrated and validated exercises is 0.90 and 0.76 respectively, which is acceptable.

HESS Opinions: Hydrologic predictions in a changing environment: behavioral modeling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. J. Schymanski

2011-02-01

Full Text Available Most hydrological models are valid at most only in a few places and cannot be reasonably transferred to other places or to far distant time periods. Transfer in space is difficult because the models are conditioned on past observations at particular places to define parameter values and unobservable processes that are needed to fully characterize the structure and functioning of the landscape. Transfer in time has to deal with the likely temporal changes to both parameters and processes under future changed conditions. This remains an important obstacle to addressing some of the most urgent prediction questions in hydrology, such as prediction in ungauged basins and prediction under global change. In this paper, we propose a new approach to catchment hydrological modeling, based on universal principles that do not change in time and that remain valid across many places. The key to this framework, which we call behavioral modeling, is to assume that there are universal and time-invariant organizing principles that can be used to identify the most appropriate model structure (including parameter values and responses for a given ecosystem at a given moment in time. These organizing principles may be derived from fundamental physical or biological laws, or from empirical laws that have been demonstrated to be time-invariant and to hold at many places and scales. Much fundamental research remains to be undertaken to help discover these organizing principles on the basis of exploration of observed patterns of landscape structure and hydrological behavior and their interpretation as legacy effects of past co-evolution of climate, soils, topography, vegetation and humans. Our hope is that the new behavioral modeling framework will be a step forward towards a new vision for hydrology where models are capable of more confidently predicting the behavior of catchments beyond what has been observed or experienced before.

Template for Conceptual Model Construction: Model Review and Corps Applications

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Henderson, Jim E; O'Neil, L. J

2007-01-01

.... The template will expedite conceptual model construction by providing users with model parameters and potential model components, building on a study team's knowledge and experience, and promoting...

Agricultural watershed modeling: a review for hydrology and soil erosion processes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carlos Rogério de Mello

2016-02-01

Full Text Available ABSTRACT Models have been used by man for thousands of years to control his environment in a favorable way to better human living conditions. The use of hydrologic models has been a widely effective tool in order to support decision makers dealing with watersheds related to several economic and social activities, like public water supply, energy generation, and water availability for agriculture, among others. The purpose of this review is to briefly discuss some models on soil and water movement on landscapes (RUSLE, WEPP, GeoWEPP, LASH, DHSVM and AnnAGNPS to provide information about them to help and serve in a proper manner in order to discuss particular problems related to hydrology and soil erosion processes. Models have been changed and evaluated significantly in recent years, highlighting the use of remote sense, GIS and automatic calibration process, allowing them capable of simulating watersheds under a given land-use and climate change effects. However, hydrology models have almost the same physical structure, which is not enough for simulating problems related to the long-term effects of different land-uses. That has been our challenge for next future: to understand entirely the hydrology cycle, having as reference the critical zone, in which the hydrological processes act together from canopy to the bottom of aquifers.

Roles of Fog and Topography in Redwood Forest Hydrology

Science.gov (United States)

Francis, E. J.; Asner, G. P.

2017-12-01

Spatial variability of water in forests is a function of both climatic gradients that control water inputs and topo-edaphic variation that determines the flows of water belowground, as well as interactions of climate with topography. Coastal redwood forests are hydrologically unique because they are influenced by coastal low clouds, or fog, that is advected onto land by a strong coastal-to-inland temperature difference. Where fog intersects the land surface, annual water inputs from summer fog drip can be greater than that of winter rainfall. In this study, we take advantage of mapped spatial gradients in forest canopy water storage, topography, and fog cover in California to better understand the roles and interactions of fog and topography in the hydrology of redwood forests. We test a conceptual model of redwood forest hydrology with measurements of canopy water content derived from high-resolution airborne imaging spectroscopy, topographic variables derived from high-resolution LiDAR data, and fog cover maps derived from NASA MODIS data. Landscape-level results provide insight into hydrological processes within redwood forests, and cross-site analyses shed light on their generality.

Development of a hydrogeological conceptual wetland model in the data-scarce north-eastern region of Kilombero Valley, Tanzania

Science.gov (United States)

Burghof, Sonja; Gabiri, Geofrey; Stumpp, Christine; Chesnaux, Romain; Reichert, Barbara

2018-02-01

Understanding groundwater/surface-water interactions in wetlands is crucial because wetlands provide not only a high potential for agricultural production, but also sensitive and valuable ecosystems. This is especially true for the Kilombero floodplain wetland in Tanzania, which represents a data-scarce region in terms of hydrological and hydrogeological data. A comprehensive approach combining hydrogeological with tracer-based assessments was conducted, in order to develop a conceptual hydrogeological wetland model of the area around the city of Ifakara in the north-eastern region of Kilombero catchment. Within the study site, a heterogeneous porous aquifer, with a range of hydraulic conductivities, is underlain by a fractured-rock aquifer. Groundwater chemistry is mainly influenced by silicate weathering and depends on groundwater residence times related to the hydraulic conductivities of the porous aquifer. Groundwater flows from the hillside to the river during most of the year. While floodwater close to the river is mainly derived from overbank flow of the river, floodwater at a greater distance from the river mainly originates from precipitation and groundwater discharge. Evaporation effects in floodwater increase with increasing distance from the river. In general, the contribution of flood and stream water to groundwater recharge is negligible. In terms of an intensification of agricultural activities in the wetland, several conclusions can be drawn from the conceptual model. Results of this study are valuable as a base for further research related to groundwater/surface-water interactions and the conceptual model can be used in the future to set up numerical flow and transport models.

Use of remote sensing data in distributed hydrological models: applications in the Senegal River basin

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sandholt, Inge; Andersen, Jens Asger; Gybkjær, Gorm

1999-01-01

Earth observation, remote sensing, hydrology, distributed hydrological modelling, West Africa, Senegal river basin, land cover, soil moisture, NOAA AVHRR, SPOT, Mike-she......Earth observation, remote sensing, hydrology, distributed hydrological modelling, West Africa, Senegal river basin, land cover, soil moisture, NOAA AVHRR, SPOT, Mike-she...

Implications of the methodological choices for hydrologic portrayals of climate change over the contiguous United States: Statistically downscaled forcing data and hydrologic models

Science.gov (United States)

Mizukami, Naoki; Clark, Martyn P.; Gutmann, Ethan D.; Mendoza, Pablo A.; Newman, Andrew J.; Nijssen, Bart; Livneh, Ben; Hay, Lauren E.; Arnold, Jeffrey R.; Brekke, Levi D.

2016-01-01

Continental-domain assessments of climate change impacts on water resources typically rely on statistically downscaled climate model outputs to force hydrologic models at a finer spatial resolution. This study examines the effects of four statistical downscaling methods [bias-corrected constructed analog (BCCA), bias-corrected spatial disaggregation applied at daily (BCSDd) and monthly scales (BCSDm), and asynchronous regression (AR)] on retrospective hydrologic simulations using three hydrologic models with their default parameters (the Community Land Model, version 4.0; the Variable Infiltration Capacity model, version 4.1.2; and the Precipitation–Runoff Modeling System, version 3.0.4) over the contiguous United States (CONUS). Biases of hydrologic simulations forced by statistically downscaled climate data relative to the simulation with observation-based gridded data are presented. Each statistical downscaling method produces different meteorological portrayals including precipitation amount, wet-day frequency, and the energy input (i.e., shortwave radiation), and their interplay affects estimations of precipitation partitioning between evapotranspiration and runoff, extreme runoff, and hydrologic states (i.e., snow and soil moisture). The analyses show that BCCA underestimates annual precipitation by as much as −250 mm, leading to unreasonable hydrologic portrayals over the CONUS for all models. Although the other three statistical downscaling methods produce a comparable precipitation bias ranging from −10 to 8 mm across the CONUS, BCSDd severely overestimates the wet-day fraction by up to 0.25, leading to different precipitation partitioning compared to the simulations with other downscaled data. Overall, the choice of downscaling method contributes to less spread in runoff estimates (by a factor of 1.5–3) than the choice of hydrologic model with use of the default parameters if BCCA is excluded.

Conceptual model for regional radionuclide transport from a basalt repository site. Final draft, technical memorandum

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Walton, W.C.; Voorhees, M.L.; Prickett, T.A.

1980-01-01

This technical memorandum was prepared to: (1) describe a typical basalt radionuclide repository site, (2) describe geologic and hydrologic processes associated with regional radionuclide transport in basalts, (3) define the parameters required to model regional radionuclide transport from a basalt repository site, and (4) develop a ''conceptual model'' of radionuclide transport from a basalt repository site. In a general hydrological sense, basalts may be described as layered sequences of aquifers and aquitards. The Columbia River Basalt, centered near the semi-arid Pasco Basin, is considered by many to be typical basalt repository host rock. Detailed description of the flow system including flow velocities with high-low hydraulic conductivity sequences are not possible with existing data. However, according to theory, waste-transport routes are ultimately towards the Columbia River and the lengths of flow paths from the repository to the biosphere may be relatively short. There are many physical, chemical, thermal, and nuclear processes with associated parameters that together determine the possible pattern of radionuclide migration in basalts and surrounding formations. Brief process descriptions and associated parameter lists are provided. Emphasis has been placed on the use of the distribution coefficient in simulating ion exchange. The use of the distribution coefficient approach is limited because it takes into account only relatively fast mass transfer processes. In general, knowledge of hydrogeochemical processes is primitive

Conceptual model for regional radionuclide transport from a basalt repository site. Final draft, technical memorandum

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Walton, W.C.; Voorhees, M.L.; Prickett, T.A.

1980-05-23

This technical memorandum was prepared to: (1) describe a typical basalt radionuclide repository site, (2) describe geologic and hydrologic processes associated with regional radionuclide transport in basalts, (3) define the parameters required to model regional radionuclide transport from a basalt repository site, and (4) develop a ''conceptual model'' of radionuclide transport from a basalt repository site. In a general hydrological sense, basalts may be described as layered sequences of aquifers and aquitards. The Columbia River Basalt, centered near the semi-arid Pasco Basin, is considered by many to be typical basalt repository host rock. Detailed description of the flow system including flow velocities with high-low hydraulic conductivity sequences are not possible with existing data. However, according to theory, waste-transport routes are ultimately towards the Columbia River and the lengths of flow paths from the repository to the biosphere may be relatively short. There are many physical, chemical, thermal, and nuclear processes with associated parameters that together determine the possible pattern of radionuclide migration in basalts and surrounding formations. Brief process descriptions and associated parameter lists are provided. Emphasis has been placed on the use of the distribution coefficient in simulating ion exchange. The use of the distribution coefficient approach is limited because it takes into account only relatively fast mass transfer processes. In general, knowledge of hydrogeochemical processes is primitive.

Conceptual Frameworks in the Doctoral Research Process: A Pedagogical Model

Science.gov (United States)

Berman, Jeanette; Smyth, Robyn

2015-01-01

This paper contributes to consideration of the role of conceptual frameworks in the doctoral research process. Through reflection on the two authors' own conceptual frameworks for their doctoral studies, a pedagogical model has been developed. The model posits the development of a conceptual framework as a core element of the doctoral…

Hydrological excitation of polar motion by different variables from the GLDAS models

Science.gov (United States)

Winska, Malgorzata; Nastula, Jolanta; Salstein, David

2017-12-01

Continental hydrological loading by land water, snow and ice is a process that is important for the full understanding of the excitation of polar motion. In this study, we compute different estimations of hydrological excitation functions of polar motion (as hydrological angular momentum, HAM) using various variables from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) models of the land-based hydrosphere. The main aim of this study is to show the influence of variables from different hydrological processes including evapotranspiration, runoff, snowmelt and soil moisture, on polar motion excitations at annual and short-term timescales. Hydrological excitation functions of polar motion are determined using selected variables of these GLDAS realizations. Furthermore, we use time-variable gravity field solutions from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) to determine the hydrological mass effects on polar motion excitation. We first conduct an intercomparison of the maps of variations of regional hydrological excitation functions, timing and phase diagrams of different regional and global HAMs. Next, we estimate the hydrological signal in geodetically observed polar motion excitation as a residual by subtracting the contributions of atmospheric angular momentum and oceanic angular momentum. Finally, the hydrological excitations are compared with those hydrological signals determined from residuals of the observed polar motion excitation series. The results will help us understand the relative importance of polar motion excitation within the individual hydrological processes, based on hydrological modeling. This method will allow us to estimate how well the polar motion excitation budget in the seasonal and inter-annual spectral ranges can be closed.

Towards a regional climate model coupled to a comprehensive hydrological model

Science.gov (United States)

Rasmussen, S. H.; Drews, M.; Christensen, J. H.; Butts, M. B.; Jensen, K. H.; Refsgaard, J.; Hydrological ModellingAssessing Climate Change Impacts At Different Scales (Hyacints)

2010-12-01

When planing new ground water abstractions wells, building areas, roads or other land use activities information about expected future groundwater table location for the lifetime of the construction may be critical. The life time of an abstraction well can be expected to be more than 50 years, while if for buildings may be up to 100 years or more. The construction of an abstraction well is expensive and it is important to know if clean groundwater is available for its expected life time. The future groundwater table is depending on the future climate. With climate change the hydrology is expected to change as well. Traditionally, this assessment has been done by driving hydrological models with output from a climate model. In this way feedback between the groundwater hydrology and the climate is neglected. Neglecting this feedback can lead to imprecise or wrong results. The goal of this work is to couple the regional climate model HIRHAM (Christensen et al. 2006) to the hydrological model MIKE SHE (Graham and Butts, 2006). The coupling exploits the new OpenMI technology that provides a standardized interface to define, describe and transfer data on a time step basis between software components that run simultaneously (Gregersen et al., 2007). HIRHAM runs on a UNIX platform whereas MIKE SHE and OpenMI are under WINDOWS. Therefore the first critical task has been to develop an effective communication link between the platforms. The first step towards assessing the coupled models performance are addressed by looking at simulated land-surface atmosphere feedback through variables such as evapotranspiration, sensible heat flux and soil moisture content. Christensen, O.B., Drews, M., Christensen, J.H., Dethloff, K., Ketelsen, K., Hebestadt, I. and Rinke, A. (2006) The HIRHAM Regional Climate Model. Version 5; DMI Scientific Report 0617. Danish Meteorological Institute. Graham, D.N. and Butts, M.B. (2005) Flexible, integrated watershed modelling with MIKE SHE, In

Mathematical modelling of fracture hydrology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Herbert, A.W.; Hodgkindon, D.P.; Lever, D.A.; Robinson, P.C.; Rae, J.

1985-01-01

This report reviews work carried out between January 1983 and December 1984 for the CEC/DOE contract 'Mathematical Modelling of Fracture Hydrology' which forms part of the CEC Mirage project (CEC 1984. Come 1985. Bourke et. al. 1983). It describes the development and use of a variety of mathematical models for the flow of water and transport of radionuclides in flowing groundwater. These models have an important role to play in assessing the long-term safety of radioactive waste burial, and in the planning and interpretation of associated experiments. The work is reported under five headings, namely 1) Statistical fracture network modelling, 2) Continuum models of flow and transport, 3) Simplified models, 4) Analysis of laboratory experiments, 5) Analysis of field experiments

airGR: an R-package suitable for large sample hydrology presenting a suite of lumped hydrological models

Science.gov (United States)

Thirel, G.; Delaigue, O.; Coron, L.; Perrin, C.; Andreassian, V.

2016-12-01

Lumped hydrological models are useful and convenient tools for research, engineering and educational purposes. They propose catchment-scale representations of the precipitation-discharge relationship. Thanks to their limited data requirements, they can be easily implemented and run. With such models, it is possible to simulate a number of hydrological key processes over the catchment with limited structural and parametric complexity, typically evapotranspiration, runoff, underground losses, etc. The Hydrology Group at Irstea (Antony) has been developing a suite of rainfall-runoff models over the past 30 years with the main objectives of designing models as efficient as possible in terms of streamflow simulation, applicable to a wide range of catchments and having low data requirements. This resulted in a suite of models running at different time steps (from hourly to annual) applicable for various issues including water balance estimation, forecasting, simulation of impacts and scenario testing. Recently, Irstea has developed an easy-to-use R-package (R Core Team, 2015; Coron et al., 2016), called airGR, to make these models widely available. It includes: - the water balance annual GR1A (Mouehli et al., 2006), - the monthly GR2M (Mouehli, 2003) models, - three versions of the daily model, namely GR4J (Perrin et al., 2003), GR5J (Le Moine, 2008) and GR6J (Pushpalatha et al., 2011), - the hourly GR4H model (Mathevet, 2005), - a degree-day snow module CemaNeige (Valéry et al., 2014). The airGR package has been designed to facilitate the use by non-expert users and allow the addition of evaluation criteria, models or calibration algorithm selected by the end-user. Each model core is coded in FORTRAN to ensure low computational time. The other package functions (i.e. mainly the calibration algorithm and the efficiency criteria) are coded in R. The package is already used for educational purposes. It allows for convenient implementation of model inter-comparisons and