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Sample records for hydrocarbon supply model

  1. Find-rate methodology and resource base estimates of the Hydrocarbon Supply Model (1990 update). Topical report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woods, T.

    1991-02-01

    The Hydrocarbon Supply Model is used to develop long-term trends in Lower-48 gas production and costs. The model utilizes historical find-rate patterns to predict the discovery rate and size distribution of future oil and gas field discoveries. The report documents the methodologies used to quantify historical oil and gas field find-rates and to project those discovery patterns for future drilling. It also explains the theoretical foundations for the find-rate approach. The new field and reserve growth resource base is documented and compared to other published estimates. The report has six sections. Section 1 provides background information and an overview of the model. Sections 2, 3, and 4 describe the theoretical foundations of the model, the databases, and specific techniques used. Section 5 presents the new field resource base by region and depth. Section 6 documents the reserve growth model components

  2. Supply chain reliability modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eugen Zaitsev

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: Today it is virtually impossible to operate alone on the international level in the logistics business. This promotes the establishment and development of new integrated business entities - logistic operators. However, such cooperation within a supply chain creates also many problems related to the supply chain reliability as well as the optimization of the supplies planning. The aim of this paper was to develop and formulate the mathematical model and algorithms to find the optimum plan of supplies by using economic criterion and the model for the probability evaluating of non-failure operation of supply chain. Methods: The mathematical model and algorithms to find the optimum plan of supplies were developed and formulated by using economic criterion and the model for the probability evaluating of non-failure operation of supply chain. Results and conclusions: The problem of ensuring failure-free performance of goods supply channel analyzed in the paper is characteristic of distributed network systems that make active use of business process outsourcing technologies. The complex planning problem occurring in such systems that requires taking into account the consumer's requirements for failure-free performance in terms of supply volumes and correctness can be reduced to a relatively simple linear programming problem through logical analysis of the structures. The sequence of the operations, which should be taken into account during the process of the supply planning with the supplier's functional reliability, was presented.

  3. Mechanistic model for microbial growth on hydrocarbons

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mallee, F M; Blanch, H W

    1977-12-01

    Based on available information describing the transport and consumption of insoluble alkanes, a mechanistic model is proposed for microbial growth on hydrocarbons. The model describes the atypical growth kinetics observed, and has implications in the design of large scale equipment for single cell protein (SCP) manufacture from hydrocarbons. The model presents a framework for comparison of the previously published experimental kinetic data.

  4. Statistical evaluation of variables affecting occurrence of hydrocarbons in aquifers used for public supply, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landon, Matthew K.; Burton, Carmen A.; Davis, Tracy A.; Belitz, Kenneth; Johnson, Tyler D.

    2014-01-01

    The variables affecting the occurrence of hydrocarbons in aquifers used for public supply in California were assessed based on statistical evaluation of three large statewide datasets; gasoline oxygenates also were analyzed for comparison with hydrocarbons. Benzene is the most frequently detected (1.7%) compound among 17 hydrocarbons analyzed at generally low concentrations (median detected concentration 0.024 μg/l) in groundwater used for public supply in California; methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE) is the most frequently detected (5.8%) compound among seven oxygenates analyzed (median detected concentration 0.1 μg/l). At aquifer depths used for public supply, hydrocarbons and MTBE rarely co-occur and are generally related to different variables; in shallower groundwater, co-occurrence is more frequent and there are similar relations to the density or proximity of potential sources. Benzene concentrations are most strongly correlated with reducing conditions, regardless of groundwater age and depth. Multiple lines of evidence indicate that benzene and other hydrocarbons detected in old, deep, and/or brackish groundwater result from geogenic sources of oil and gas. However, in recently recharged (since ~1950), generally shallower groundwater, higher concentrations and detection frequencies of benzene and hydrocarbons were associated with a greater proportion of commercial land use surrounding the well, likely reflecting effects of anthropogenic sources, particularly in combination with reducing conditions.

  5. Effects of oxygen supply on the biodegradation rate in oil hydrocarbons contaminated soil

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zawierucha, I [Institute of Chemistry and Environment Protection, Jan Dlugosz University of Czestochowa, Waszyngtona 4/8, 42-200 Czestochowa (Poland); Malina, G, E-mail: iwona_zawierucha@o2.pl [Faculty of Hydrogeology and Geology Engineering, Department of Geology, Geophysics and Environment Protection, AGH University of Science and Technology, Mickiewicza 30, 30-059 Cracow (Poland)

    2011-04-01

    Respirometry studies using the 10-chamber Micro-Oxymax respirometer (Columbus, Ohio) were conducted to determine the effect of biostimulation (by diverse ways of O{sub 2} supply) on enhancing biodegradation in soils contaminated with oil hydrocarbons. Soil was collected from a former military airport in Kluczewo, Poland. Oxygen was supplied by means of aerated water, aqueous solutions of H{sub 2}O{sub 2} and KMnO{sub 4}. The biodegradation was evaluated on the basis of O{sub 2} uptake and CO{sub 2} production. The O{sub 2} consumption and CO{sub 2} production rates during hydrocarbons biodegradation were estimated from the slopes of cumulative curve linear regressions. The pertinent intrinsic and enhanced biodegradation rates were calculated on the basis of mass balance equation and O{sub 2} uptake and CO{sub 2} production rates. The biodegradation rates of 5-7 times higher as compared to a control were observed when the aqueous solution of KMnO{sub 4} in concentration of 20 g L{sup -1} was applied. Permanganate is known to readily oxidize alkene carbon - carbon double bonds; so it can be successfully applied in remediation technology for soils contaminated with oil hydrocarbons. While hydrocarbons are not completely mineralized by permanganate oxidation reactions, their structure is altered by polar functional groups providing vast improvements in aqueous solubility and availability for biodegradation. The 3% aqueous solution of H{sub 2}O{sub 2} caused significant improvement of the biodegradation rates as compared to a control (on average about 260%). Aerobic biodegradation of hydrocarbons can benefit from the presence of oxygen released during H{sub 2}O{sub 2} decomposition. Adding of aerated water resulted in an increase of biodegradation rates (about 114 - 229%) as compared to a control. The aerated water can both be the source of oxygen for microorganisms and determine the transport of substrate to bacteria cells.

  6. European oil product supply modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saint-Antonin, V.

    1998-01-01

    Over the last few years, trends in European oil product consumption (in terms of level as structure and quality) has important implications of the refining industry. In this context, the purpose of this thesis consists in building a mathematical programming model applied to the European refineries in order to determine oil product supply prices, European refining industry investments and oil product exchanges of the European Union. The first part presents the reason for our choice for a long-term aggregate multi-refineries linear programming model, based on European refineries characteristics and the objectives of our model. Its dual properties are studied in detail and we focus particularly on the European exchange modelling. In the second part, an analysis of the European refining trends leads us to identify parameters and variables of the model that are essential to the aggregate representation of the European oil product supply. The third part is devoted to the use of this model, regarding two scenarios of increasingly stringent specifications for gasoline and diesel oil. Our interest for these products is due to their important share of the European oil product consumption and the not insignificant responsibility of the transport sector for atmospheric pollution. Finally, in order to have the use of an overall picture of the European refining industry, we build a regression model summarizing, though a few equations, the main relations between the major endogenous and exogenous variables o the LP model. Based on pseudo-data, this kind of model provides a simple and robust representation of the oil product supply. But a more specialized analysis of the refining industry operations, turning on a technical assessment of processing units, is reliant on the use of an optimization model such as the model we have built. (author)

  7. Modeling the fate of polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons in the rhizosphere

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Santharam, S.K.; Erickson, L.E.; Fan, L.T.

    1994-01-01

    Polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are major contaminants associated with wastes from manufactured gas plants, wood treating operations, and petroleum refining; they are potentially carcinogenic and mutagenic. It has been known that vegetation can enhance the rate and extent of degradation of PAHs in contaminated soil. Plant roots release exudates capable of supplying carbon and energy to microflora for degrading PAHs. It has also been well established that the population of microorganisms in the rhizosphere is significantly greater than that in the non-vegetated soil; these microorganisms are apparently responsible for the enhanced biodegradation of PAHs. A model has been derived for describing the rate of disappearance of a non-aqueous phase contaminant in the rhizosphere, which takes into account dissolution, adsorption, desorption and biodegradation of the contaminant, without neglecting the size distribution of the organic-phase droplets; the rate of biodegradation is expressed in terms of the Monod kinetics. The model is validated with the available experimental data for pyrene

  8. Supply chain strategies, issues and models

    CERN Document Server

    Ramanathan, Ramakrishnan

    2014-01-01

    In the 21st century, supply chain operations and relationships among supply chain partners have become highly challenging, necessitating new approaches, e.g., the development of new models. Supply Chain Strategies, Issues and Models discusses supply chain issues and models with examples from actual industrial cases. Expert authors with a wide spectrum of knowledge working in various areas of supply chain management from various geographical locations offer refreshing, novel and insightful ideas and address possible solutions using established theories and models. Supply Chain Strategies, Issues and Models features studies that have used mathematical modeling, statistical analyses and also descriptive qualitative studies. The chapters cover many relevant themes related to supply chains and logistics including supply chain complexity, information sharing, quality (six sigma), electronic Kanbans, inventory models, scheduling, purchasing and contracts. To facilitate easy reading, the chapters that deal with suppl...

  9. Coordinated supply chain dynamic production planning model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chandra, Charu; Grabis, Janis

    2001-10-01

    Coordination of different and often contradicting interests of individual supply chain members is one of the important issues in supply chain management because the individual members can not succeed without success of the supply chain and vice versa. This paper investigates a supply chain dynamic production planning problem with emphasis on coordination. A planning problem is formally described using a supply chain kernel, which defines supply chain configuration, management policies, available resources and objectives both at supply chain or macro and supply chain member or micro levels. The coordinated model is solved in order to balance decisions made at the macro and micro levels and members' profitability is used as the coordination criterion. The coordinated model is used to determine inventory levels and production capacity across the supply chain. Application of the coordinated model distributes costs burden uniformly among supply chain members and preserves overall efficiency of the supply chain. Influence of the demand series uncertainty is investigated. The production planning model is a part of the integrated supply chain decision modeling system, which is shared among the supply chain members across the Internet.

  10. New method dynamically models hydrocarbon fractionation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kesler, M.G.; Weissbrod, J.M.; Sheth, B.V. [Kesler Engineering, East Brunswick, NJ (United States)

    1995-10-01

    A new method for calculating distillation column dynamics can be used to model time-dependent effects of independent disturbances for a range of hydrocarbon fractionation. It can model crude atmospheric and vacuum columns, with relatively few equilibrium stages and a large number of components, to C{sub 3} splitters, with few components and up to 300 equilibrium stages. Simulation results are useful for operations analysis, process-control applications and closed-loop control in petroleum, petrochemical and gas processing plants. The method is based on an implicit approach, where the time-dependent variations of inventory, temperatures, liquid and vapor flows and compositions are superimposed at each time step on the steady-state solution. Newton-Raphson (N-R) techniques are then used to simultaneously solve the resulting finite-difference equations of material, equilibrium and enthalpy balances that characterize distillation dynamics. The important innovation is component-aggregation and tray-aggregation to contract the equations without compromising accuracy. This contraction increases the N-R calculations` stability. It also significantly increases calculational speed, which is particularly important in dynamic simulations. This method provides a sound basis for closed-loop, supervisory control of distillation--directly or via multivariable controllers--based on a rigorous, phenomenological column model.

  11. Coal supply and transportation model (CSTM)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-11-01

    The Coal Supply and Transportation Model (CSTM) forecasts annual coal supply and distribution to domestic and foreign markets. The model describes US coal production, national and international coal transportation industries. The objective of this work is to provide a technical description of the current version of the model

  12. Hydrocarbons

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1927-02-22

    Coal tar, mineral oils, bitumens, coal extraction products, hydrogenation products of coal, oil schists can be atomized and heated with steam to decompose pyrogenetically and form gases rich in olefins which may be heated with or without pressure and with or without catalysts to produce liquid hydrocarbons of low boiling point, some of which may be aromatic. The apparatus should be lined with copper, silica, or ferrosilicon to prevent contact of the bases with iron which causes deposition of soot. Catalysts used may be metal oxides, silica, graphite, active charcoal, mica, pumice, porcelain, barium carbonate, copper, silver, gold, chromium, boron, or their compounds. At temperatures from 300 to 400/sup 0/C, olefins are produced. At higher temperatures, naphthenes and benzene hydrocarbons are produced.

  13. Modelling green and lean supply chains

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Govindan, Kannan; Carvalho, Helena; Azevedo, Susana G.

    2017-01-01

    This manuscript proposes a model to support decision making and to help managers identify the best set of green and lean supply chain management practices to improve their eco-efficiency. To attain this objective, a mathematical model based on eco-efficiency concepts is suggested to overcome...... a strategic framework to support the design of eco-efficient supply chains....

  14. Business Modeling - Supply Chain Management

    OpenAIRE

    Abdillah, Leon

    2017-01-01

    BM-SCM consists of: 1) Introduction, 2) Basic Concepts, 3) Inventory Management, 4) Forecasting Material, 5) Requirements, ) Transportation Management, 7) Vendor Management, 8) Warehouse Management, 9) Cross Docking, 10) Third Party Logistics (3PLs), 11) IT in Supply Chain, and 12) Presentations.

  15. Mathematical modelling on transport of petroleum hydrocarbons

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    A brief theory has been included on the composition and transport of petroleum hydrocarbons following an onshore oil spill in order to demonstrate the level of complexity associated with the LNAPL dissolution mass transfer even in a classical porous medium. However, such studies in saturated fractured rocks are highly ...

  16. The fishing industry - toward supply chain modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Toke Koldborg; Nielsen, Jette; Larsen, Erling P.

    Mathematical models for simulating and optimizing supply chain aspects such as distribution planning and optimal use of raw materials are widely used. However, modelling based on a holistic chain view is less studied, and food-related aspects such as quality and shelf life issues enforce additional...... requirements onto the chains. In this paper, we consider the supply chain structure of the Danish fishing industry and illustrate the potential of using mathematical models to identify quality and value-adding activities. This is a first step toward innovative supply chain modelling aimed to identify benefits...... for actors along chains in the fishing industry....

  17. A Capacity Supply Model for Virtualized Servers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander PINNOW

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with determining the capacity supply for virtualized servers. First, a server is modeled as a queue based on a Markov chain. Then, the effect of server virtualization on the capacity supply will be analyzed with the distribution function of the server load.

  18. The fish industry - toward supply chain modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Toke Koldborg; Nielsen, Jette; Larsen, Erling

    2010-01-01

    such as quality and shelf-life issues enforce additional requirements onto the chains. In this article, we consider the supply chain structure of the fish industry. We discuss and illustrate the potential of using mathematical models to identify quality and value-adding activities. The article provides a first......Mathematical models for simulating and optimizing aspects of supply chains such as distribution, planning, and optimal handling of raw materials are widely used. However, modeling based on a holistic chain view including several or all supply chain agents is less studied, and food-related aspects...... step toward innovative supply chain modeling aimed to identify benefits for all agents along chains in the fish industry....

  19. Population Model with a Dynamic Food Supply

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickman, Ronald; da Silva Nascimento, Jonas

    2009-09-01

    We propose a simple population model including the food supply as a dynamic variable. In the model, survival of an organism depends on a certain minimum rate of food consumption; a higher rate of consumption is required for reproduction. We investigate the stationary behavior under steady food input, and the transient behavior of growth and decay when food is present initially but is not replenished. Under a periodic food supply, the system exhibits period-doubling bifurcations and chaos in certain ranges of the reproduction rate. Bifurcations and chaos are favored by a slow reproduction rate and a long period of food-supply oscillation.

  20. Modelling Lean and Green Supply Chain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duarte, Susana Carla Vieira Lino Medina

    The success of an organization depends on the effective control of its supply chain. It is important to recognize new opportunities for organization and its supply chain. In the last few years the approach to lean, agile, resilient and green supply chain paradigms has been addressed in the scientific literature. Research in this field shows that the integration of these concepts revealed some contradictions among so many paradigms. This thesis is mainly focused on the lean and green approaches. Thirteen different management frameworks, embodied in awards, standards and tools were studied to understand if they could contribute for the modelling process of a lean and green approach. The study reveals a number of categories that are common in most management frameworks, providing adequate conditions for a lean and green supply chain transformation. A conceptual framework for the evaluation of a lean and green organization`s supply chain was proposed. The framework considers six key criteria, namely, leadership, people, strategic planning, stakeholders, processes and results. It was proposed an assessment method considering a criteria score for each criterion. The purpose is to understand how lean and green supply chain can be compatible, using principles, practices, techniques or tools (i.e. elements) that support both, a lean and a green approach, in all key criteria. A case study in the automotive upstream supply chain was performed to understand more deeply if the elements proposed for the conceptual framework could be implemented in a real-scenario. Based on the conceptual framework and the case study, a roadmap to achieve a lean-green transformation is presented. The proposed roadmap revealed its contribution to the understanding on how and when an organization`s supply chain should apply the lean and green elements. This study is relevant to practice, as it may assist managers in the adoption of a lean and green supply chain approach, giving insights for the

  1. Model feedstock supply processing plants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. M. Bautin

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The model of raw providing the processing enterprises entering into vertically integrated structure on production and processing of dairy raw materials, differing by an orientation on achievement of cumulative effect by the integrated structure acting as criterion function which maximizing is reached by optimization of capacities, volumes of deliveries of raw materials and its qualitative characteristics, costs of industrial processing of raw materials and demand for dairy production is developed.

  2. Modeling of Antenna for Deep Target Hydrocarbon Exploration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nadeem Nasir

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays control source electromagnetic method is used for offshore hydrocarbon exploration. Hydrocarbon detection in sea bed logging (SBL is a very challenging task for deep target hydrocarbon reservoir. Response of electromagnetic (EM field from marine environment is very low and it is very difficult to predict deep target reservoir below 2km from the sea floor. This work premise deals with modeling of new antenna for deep water deep target hydrocarbon exploration. Conventional and new EM antennas at 0.125Hz frequency are used in modeling for the detection of deep target hydrocarbon  reservoir.  The  proposed  area  of  the  seabed model   (40km ´ 40km   was   simulated   by using CST (computer simulation technology EM studio based on Finite Integration Method (FIM. Electromagnetic field components were compared at 500m target depth and it was concluded that Ex and Hz components shows better resistivity contrast. Comparison of conventional and new antenna for different target  depths  was  done in  our  proposed  model.  From  the results, it was observed that conventional antenna at 0.125Hz shows 70% ,86% resistivity contrast at target depth of 1000m where   as   new   antenna   showed   329%, 355%   resistivity contrast at the same target depth for Ex and Hz field respectively.  It  was  also  investigated  that  at  frequency of0.125Hz, new antenna gave 46% better delineation of hydrocarbon at 4000m target depth. This is due to focusing of electromagnetic waves by using new antenna. New antenna design gave 125% more extra depth than straight antenna for deep target hydrocarbon detection. Numerical modeling for straight  and  new antenna  was also done to know general equation for electromagnetic field behavior with target depth. From this numerical model it was speculated that this new antenna can detect up to 4.5 km target depth. This new EM antenna may open new frontiers for oil and gas

  3. Teaching Aggregate Demand and Supply Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wells, Graeme

    2010-01-01

    The author analyzes the inflation-targeting model that underlies recent textbook expositions of the aggregate demand-aggregate supply approach used in introductory courses in macroeconomics. He shows how numerical simulations of a model with inflation inertia can be used as a tool to help students understand adjustments in response to demand and…

  4. Security Modeling on the Supply Chain Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marn-Ling Shing

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available In order to keep the price down, a purchaser sends out the request for quotation to a group of suppliers in a supply chain network. The purchaser will then choose a supplier with the best combination of price and quality. A potential supplier will try to collect the related information about other suppliers so he/she can offer the best bid to the purchaser. Therefore, confidentiality becomes an important consideration for the design of a supply chain network. Chen et al. have proposed the application of the Bell-LaPadula model in the design of a secured supply chain network. In the Bell-LaPadula model, a subject can be in one of different security clearances and an object can be in one of various security classifications. All the possible combinations of (Security Clearance, Classification pair in the Bell-LaPadula model can be thought as different states in the Markov Chain model. This paper extends the work done by Chen et al., provides more details on the Markov Chain model and illustrates how to use it to monitor the security state transition in the supply chain network.

  5. A new biodegradation prediction model specific to petroleum hydrocarbons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howard, Philip; Meylan, William; Aronson, Dallas; Stiteler, William; Tunkel, Jay; Comber, Michael; Parkerton, Thomas F

    2005-08-01

    A new predictive model for determining quantitative primary biodegradation half-lives of individual petroleum hydrocarbons has been developed. This model uses a fragment-based approach similar to that of several other biodegradation models, such as those within the Biodegradation Probability Program (BIOWIN) estimation program. In the present study, a half-life in days is estimated using multiple linear regression against counts of 31 distinct molecular fragments. The model was developed using a data set consisting of 175 compounds with environmentally relevant experimental data that was divided into training and validation sets. The original fragments from the Ministry of International Trade and Industry BIOWIN model were used initially as structural descriptors and additional fragments were then added to better describe the ring systems found in petroleum hydrocarbons and to adjust for nonlinearity within the experimental data. The training and validation sets had r2 values of 0.91 and 0.81, respectively.

  6. Influence of performance characteristic of a gaseous fuel supply system on hydrocarbon emissions of a dual-fuel engine

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ren, J.; Wang, Z.Y.; Zhong, H.; Hao, S.H. [Xi' an Jiaotong Univ., Dept. of Automobile Engineering, Xi' an (China)

    2000-11-01

    The performance of the gaseous fuel supply and its influence on hydrocarbon (HC) emissions of dual-fuel engines have been investigated. A new design of manifold respirators with mixers is also presented in the paper. The design of the gaseous fuel supply system has a great influence on HC emissions in the dual-fuel engine at light load. The problem of scavenging is discussed and solved by using the manifold respirators in the dual-fuel engine. It performs the function of retarding the gaseous fuel entry timing from the moment of intake valve opening, and its delaying effects have been measured and tested. Experimental results show that the manifold respirator gives the best performance in reducing HC emissions compared with a common pipe mixer and a respirator with bo miser. In addition, the mixing effects are sensitive to the mixer configuration. (Author)

  7. Quantitative models for sustainable supply chain management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brandenburg, M.; Govindan, Kannan; Sarkis, J.

    2014-01-01

    and directions of this research area, this paper provides a content analysis of 134 carefully identified papers on quantitative, formal models that address sustainability aspects in the forward SC. It was found that a preponderance of the publications and models appeared in a limited set of six journals......Sustainability, the consideration of environmental factors and social aspects, in supply chain management (SCM) has become a highly relevant topic for researchers and practitioners. The application of operations research methods and related models, i.e. formal modeling, for closed-loop SCM...... and reverse logistics has been effectively reviewed in previously published research. This situation is in contrast to the understanding and review of mathematical models that focus on environmental or social factors in forward supply chains (SC), which has seen less investigation. To evaluate developments...

  8. Modeling of air toxics from hydrocarbon pool fires

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harvey, K.A.; Aydil, M.L.; Barone, J.B.

    1996-01-01

    While there is guidance for estimating the radiation hazards of fires (ARCHIE), there is little guidance on modeling the dispersion of hazardous materials from fires. The objective of this paper is to provide a review of the methodology used for modeling the impacts of liquid hydrocarbon pool fires. The required input variables for modeling of hydrocarbon pool fires include emission strength, emission duration, and dispersion characteristics. Methods for predicting the products of combustion including the use of literature values, test data, and thermodynamic equilibrium calculations are discussed. The use of energy balances coupled to radiative heat transfer calculations are presented as a method for determining flame temperature. Fire modeling literature is reviewed in order to determine other source release variables such as mass burn rate and duration and flame geometry

  9. Modeling for Green Supply Chain Evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elham Falatoonitoosi

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Green supply chain management (GSCM has become a practical approach to develop environmental performance. Under strict regulations and stakeholder pressures, enterprises need to enhance and improve GSCM practices, which are influenced by both traditional and green factors. This study developed a causal evaluation model to guide selection of qualified suppliers by prioritizing various criteria and mapping causal relationships to find effective criteria to improve green supply chain. The aim of the case study was to model and examine the influential and important main GSCM practices, namely, green logistics, organizational performance, green organizational activities, environmental protection, and green supplier evaluation. In the case study, decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory technique is applied to test the developed model. The result of the case study shows only “green supplier evaluation” and “green organizational activities” criteria of the model are in the cause group and the other criteria are in the effect group.

  10. Interactive physically-based structural modeling of hydrocarbon systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bosson, Mael; Grudinin, Sergei; Bouju, Xavier; Redon, Stephane

    2012-01-01

    Hydrocarbon systems have been intensively studied via numerical methods, including electronic structure computations, molecular dynamics and Monte Carlo simulations. Typically, these methods require an initial structural model (atomic positions and types, topology, etc.) that may be produced using scripts and/or modeling tools. For many systems, however, these building methods may be ineffective, as the user may have to specify the positions of numerous atoms while maintaining structural plausibility. In this paper, we present an interactive physically-based modeling tool to construct structural models of hydrocarbon systems. As the user edits the geometry of the system, atomic positions are also influenced by the Brenner potential, a well-known bond-order reactive potential. In order to be able to interactively edit systems containing numerous atoms, we introduce a new adaptive simulation algorithm, as well as a novel algorithm to incrementally update the forces and the total potential energy based on the list of updated relative atomic positions. The computational cost of the adaptive simulation algorithm depends on user-defined error thresholds, and our potential update algorithm depends linearly with the number of updated bonds. This allows us to enable efficient physically-based editing, since the computational cost is decoupled from the number of atoms in the system. We show that our approach may be used to effectively build realistic models of hydrocarbon structures that would be difficult or impossible to produce using other tools.

  11. SOLID FUEL OF HYDROCARBON, WOOD AND AGRICULTURAL WASTE FOR LOCAL HEAT SUPPLY SYSTEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. M. Khroustalev

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In Belarus oil refining and oil producing industries are paid close attention. On the background of the active maintaining the level of oil processing and volume of oil extraction in our country and in the countries of the Eurasian Economic Union there is a steady formation of hydrocarbon-containing waste; therefore recycling of the latter is an urgent task to improve the competitiveness of production. The most cost-effective way of using hydrocarbon waste is the conversion of it into power resources. In this case it is possible to obtain significant power-saving and economic effect of the combined use of a hydrocarbon, wood, agricultural and other combustible waste, meanwhile improving the ecological situation at the sites of waste storage and creating a solid fuel with the necessary energy and specified physical-and-chemical properties. A comprehensive solution of a recycling problem makes it possible to use as energy resources a lot of waste that has not found application in other technologies, to produce alternative multi-component fuel which structure meets environmental and energy requirement for local heating systems. In addition, the implementation of such technology will make it possible to reduce power consumption of enterprises of various kinds that consume fuel and will also increase the share of local fuels in the energy balance of a particular region.

  12. Maturity models in supply chain sustainability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Correia, Elisabete; Carvalho, Helena; Azevedo, Susana G.

    2017-01-01

    A systematic literature review of supply chain maturity models with sustainability concerns is presented. The objective is to give insights into methodological issues related to maturity models, namely the research objectives; the research methods used to develop, validate and test them; the scope...... of maturity levels. The comprehensive review, analysis, and synthesis of the maturity model literature represent an important contribution to the organization of this research area, making possible to clarify some confusion that exists about concepts, approaches and components of maturity models...

  13. MODELING GALACTIC EXTINCTION WITH DUST AND 'REAL' POLYCYCLIC AROMATIC HYDROCARBONS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mulas, Giacomo; Casu, Silvia; Cecchi-Pestellini, Cesare; Zonca, Alberto

    2013-01-01

    We investigate the remarkable apparent variety of galactic extinction curves by modeling extinction profiles with core-mantle grains and a collection of single polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. Our aim is to translate a synthetic description of dust into physically well-grounded building blocks through the analysis of a statistically relevant sample of different extinction curves. All different flavors of observed extinction curves, ranging from the average galactic extinction curve to virtually 'bumpless' profiles, can be described by the present model. We prove that a mixture of a relatively small number (54 species in 4 charge states each) of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons can reproduce the features of the extinction curve in the ultraviolet, dismissing an old objection to the contribution of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons to the interstellar extinction curve. Despite the large number of free parameters (at most the 54 × 4 column densities of each species in each ionization state included in the molecular ensemble plus the 9 parameters defining the physical properties of classical particles), we can strongly constrain some physically relevant properties such as the total number of C atoms in all species and the mean charge of the mixture. Such properties are found to be largely independent of the adopted dust model whose variation provides effects that are orthogonal to those brought about by the molecular component. Finally, the fitting procedure, together with some physical sense, suggests (but does not require) the presence of an additional component of chemically different very small carbonaceous grains.

  14. Security of Supply of Hydrocarbonates and Differences in Approach to the Issue Definition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dragicevic, T.

    2006-01-01

    Security of Supply became an issue during the First World War when First Lord of Admiralty, W. Churchill, decided to modernize the Navy by replacing coal with oil as a propelling fuel for ships. Crude oil that arrived from the then Persia opened up the question of Security. First Lord of Admiralty defined it in the following way: S afety and certainty in oil lie in variety and variety alone... . This concept of diversification of supply became topical again during the oil crises in 1973. It is topical even today as the world faces disruptions in supply caused by war intervention in Iraq, Al-Qaeda terrorist threats, hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico or difficulties in natural gas supply caused by disputes between Russia and Ukraine. The important element of security of supply is the own oil and gas production from domestic fields or foreign concessions. The countries that have their own oil industry regard highly the strategic importance of their own reserves. Private ownership of shares in oil companies or sources of capital does not diminish this strategic importance. Participation of renewable energy sources is important not only for environmental protection but for mitigating dependence on energy imports. Croatian energy strategy should be adjusted to new challenges and conditions on the energy market, taking also into account the relevant EU regulations.(author)

  15. Supply chain modeling of forest fuel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gunnarsson, Helene; Lundgren, Jan T.; Roennqvist, Mikael

    2001-04-01

    We study the problem of deciding when and where forest residues are to be converted into forest fuel, and how the residues are to be transported and stored in order to satisfy demand at heating plants. Decisions also include whether or not additional harvest areas and saw-mills are to be contracted. In addition, we consider the flow of products from saw-mills and import harbors, and address the question about which terminals to use. The planning horizon is one year and monthly time periods are considered. The supply chain problem is formulated as a large mixed integer linear programming model. In order to obtain solutions within reasonable time we have developed a heuristic solution approach. Computational results from a large Swedish supplying entrepreneur are reported.

  16. Supply chain modeling of forest fuel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gunnarsson, Helene; Lundgren, Jan T.; Roennqvist, Mikael

    2001-04-01

    We study the problem of deciding when and where forest residues are to be converted into forest fuel, and how the residues are to be transported and stored in order to satisfy demand at heating plants. Decisions also include whether or not additional harvest areas and saw-mills are to be contracted. In addition, we consider the flow of products from saw-mills and import harbors, and address the question about which terminals to use. The planning horizon is one year and monthly time periods are considered. The supply chain problem is formulated as a large mixed integer linear programming model. In order to obtain solutions within reasonable time we have developed a heuristic solution approach. Computational results from a large Swedish supplying entrepreneur are reported

  17. Analytical Modeling Tool for Design of Hydrocarbon Sensitive Optical Fibers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khalil Al Handawi

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Pipelines are the main transportation means for oil and gas products across large distances. Due to the severe conditions they operate in, they are regularly inspected using conventional Pipeline Inspection Gages (PIGs for corrosion damage. The motivation for researching a real-time distributed monitoring solution arose to mitigate costs and provide a proactive indication of potential failures. Fiber optic sensors with polymer claddings provide a means of detecting contact with hydrocarbons. By coating the fibers with a layer of metal similar in composition to that of the parent pipeline, corrosion of this coating may be detected when the polymer cladding underneath is exposed to the surrounding hydrocarbons contained within the pipeline. A Refractive Index (RI change occurs in the polymer cladding causing a loss in intensity of a traveling light pulse due to a reduction in the fiber’s modal capacity. Intensity losses may be detected using Optical Time Domain Reflectometry (OTDR while pinpointing the spatial location of the contact via time delay calculations of the back-scattered pulses. This work presents a theoretical model for the above sensing solution to provide a design tool for the fiber optic cable in the context of hydrocarbon sensing following corrosion of an external metal coating. Results are verified against the experimental data published in the literature.

  18. Analytical Modeling Tool for Design of Hydrocarbon Sensitive Optical Fibers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al Handawi, Khalil; Vahdati, Nader; Shiryayev, Oleg; Lawand, Lydia

    2017-09-28

    Pipelines are the main transportation means for oil and gas products across large distances. Due to the severe conditions they operate in, they are regularly inspected using conventional Pipeline Inspection Gages (PIGs) for corrosion damage. The motivation for researching a real-time distributed monitoring solution arose to mitigate costs and provide a proactive indication of potential failures. Fiber optic sensors with polymer claddings provide a means of detecting contact with hydrocarbons. By coating the fibers with a layer of metal similar in composition to that of the parent pipeline, corrosion of this coating may be detected when the polymer cladding underneath is exposed to the surrounding hydrocarbons contained within the pipeline. A Refractive Index (RI) change occurs in the polymer cladding causing a loss in intensity of a traveling light pulse due to a reduction in the fiber's modal capacity. Intensity losses may be detected using Optical Time Domain Reflectometry (OTDR) while pinpointing the spatial location of the contact via time delay calculations of the back-scattered pulses. This work presents a theoretical model for the above sensing solution to provide a design tool for the fiber optic cable in the context of hydrocarbon sensing following corrosion of an external metal coating. Results are verified against the experimental data published in the literature.

  19. Neutron generator power supply modeling in EMMA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robinson, A.C.; Farnsworth, A.V.; Montgomery, S.T.; Peery, J.S.; Merewether, K.O.

    1996-01-01

    Sandia National Laboratories has prime responsibility for neutron generator design and manufacturing, and is committed to developing predictive tools for modeling neutron generator performance. An important aspect of understanding component performance is explosively driven ferroelectric power supply modeling. EMMA (ElectroMechanical Modeling in ALEGRA) is a three dimensional compile time version of Sandia's ALEGRA code. The code is built on top of the general ALEGRA framework for parallel shock-physics computations but also includes additional capability for modeling the electric potential field in dielectrics. The overall package includes shock propagation due to explosive detonation, depoling of ferroelectric ceramics, electric field calculation and coupling with a general lumped element circuit equation system. The AZTEC parallel iterative solver is used to solve for the electric potential. The DASPK differential algebraic equation package is used to solve the circuit equation system. Sample calculations are described

  20. Projecting surgeon supply using a dynamic model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fraher, Erin P; Knapton, Andy; Sheldon, George F; Meyer, Anthony; Ricketts, Thomas C

    2013-05-01

    To develop a projection model to forecast the head count and full-time equivalent supply of surgeons by age, sex, and specialty in the United States from 2009 to 2028. The search for the optimal number and specialty mix of surgeons to care for the United States population has taken on increased urgency under health care reform. Expanded insurance coverage and an aging population will increase demand for surgical and other medical services. Accurate forecasts of surgical service capacity are crucial to inform the federal government, training institutions, professional associations, and others charged with improving access to health care. The study uses a dynamic stock and flow model that simulates future changes in numbers and specialty type by factoring in changes in surgeon demographics and policy factors. : Forecasts show that overall surgeon supply will decrease 18% during the period form 2009 to 2028 with declines in all specialties except colorectal, pediatric, neurological surgery, and vascular surgery. Model simulations suggest that none of the proposed changes to increase graduate medical education currently under consideration will be sufficient to offset declines. The length of time it takes to train surgeons, the anticipated decrease in hours worked by surgeons in younger generations, and the potential decreases in graduate medical education funding suggest that there may be an insufficient surgeon workforce to meet population needs. Existing maldistribution patterns are likely to be exacerbated, leading to delayed or lost access to time-sensitive surgical procedures, particularly in rural areas.

  1. A strategic model of European gas supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holz, Franziska; Hirschhausen, Christian von; Kemfert, Claudia

    2005-01-01

    Structural changes in the European natural gas market such as liberalization, increasing demand, and growing import dependency have triggered new attempts to model these markets accurately. This paper proposes a model of the European natural gas supply including the possibility of strategic behavior of the agents along the value-added chain. We structure it as a two-stage-game of successive natural gas exports to Europe (first stage) and wholesale trade within Europe (second stage). In the case of non-cooperative Cournot competition at both stages, which is the most realistic scenario, this yields a market outcome with double marginalization, that is suppliers at both stages generate a mark-up, at the expense of the final customers. Our results suggest that the main suppliers of natural gas to Europe remain dominant (Norway, the Netherlands), although some lose market shares (Algeria, UK, and especially Russia). Traditional exports will be complemented in the future by overseas supplies of LNG from the Middle East, Nigeria, Trinidad and Tobago which are becoming competitive. The model also enables us to identify transport infrastructure bottlenecks; we find that transport capacity on the upstream market is sufficient but the capacity constraint is binding for many intra-EU trade relations. (Author)

  2. Performance of an auto refrigerant cascade refrigerator operating in gas refrigerant supply (GRS) mode with nitrogen-hydrocarbon and argon-hydrocarbon refrigerants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gurudath Nayak, H.; Venkatarathnam, G.

    2009-07-01

    There is a worldwide interest in the development of auto refrigerant cascade (ARC) refrigerators operating with refrigerant mixtures. Both flammable and non-flammable refrigerant mixtures can be used in these systems. The performance of an ARC system with optimum nitrogen-hydrocarbon and argon-hydrocarbon mixtures between 90 and 160 K is presented in this paper.

  3. Building aggregate timber supply models from individual harvest choice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maksym Polyakov; David N. Wear; Robert Huggett

    2009-01-01

    Timber supply has traditionally been modelled using aggregate data. In this paper, we build aggregate supply models for four roundwood products for the US state of North Carolina from a stand-level harvest choice model applied to detailed forest inventory. The simulated elasticities of pulpwood supply are much lower than reported by previous studies. Cross price...

  4. Developing Model for Supply Chain Management - the Case of Croatia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Jurun

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes a model of supply chain management (SCM. It explains overall supply chain issues, strategic importance of SCM, supply chain strategies and an example of mathematical formulation. A supply chain is a global network of organizations that cooperate to improve the flows of material and information between suppliers and customers at the lowest cost and the highest speed. The objective of a supply chain is customer satisfaction. At the strategic level, a supply chain can be considered as being composed of five activities: buy, make, move, store and sell. Each activity is a module. The set of modules, along with its links, constitutes a model of the supply chain. Our paper presents some insights into the supply chain strategies of companies in Croatia. The major goal of this paper is to show a model for supply chain management in mathematical terms, with an example of mathematical formulation.

  5. The composite supply chain efficiency model: A case study of the Sishen-Saldanha supply chain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leila L. Goedhals-Gerber

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available As South Africa strives to be a major force in global markets, it is essential that South African supply chains achieve and maintain a competitive advantage. One approach to achieving this is to ensure that South African supply chains maximise their levels of efficiency. Consequently, the efficiency levels of South Africa’s supply chains must be evaluated. The objective of this article is to propose a model that can assist South African industries in becoming internationally competitive by providing them with a tool for evaluating their levels of efficiency both as individual firms and as a component in an overall supply chain. The Composite Supply Chain Efficiency Model (CSCEM was developed to measure supply chain efficiency across supply chains using variables identified as problem areas experienced by South African supply chains. The CSCEM is tested in this article using the Sishen-Saldanda iron ore supply chain as a case study. The results indicate that all three links or nodes along the Sishen-Saldanha iron ore supply chain performed well. The average efficiency of the rail leg was 97.34%, while the average efficiency of the mine and the port were 97% and 95.44%, respectively. The results also show that the CSCEM can be used by South African firms to measure their levels of supply chain efficiency. This article concludes with the benefits of the CSCEM.

  6. A tactical supply chain planning model with multiple flexibility options

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Esmaeilikia, Masoud; Fahimnia, Behnam; Sarkis, Joeseph

    2016-01-01

    Supply chain flexibility is widely recognized as an approach to manage uncertainty. Uncertainty in the supply chain may arise from a number of sources such as demand and supply interruptions and lead time variability. A tactical supply chain planning model with multiple flexibility options...... incorporated in sourcing, manufacturing and logistics functions can be used for the analysis of flexibility adjustment in an existing supply chain. This paper develops such a tactical supply chain planning model incorporating a realistic range of flexibility options. A novel solution method is designed...

  7. Detailed modeling of hydrocarbon nanoparticle nucleation in acetylene discharges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bleecker, Kathleen de; Bogaerts, Annemie; Goedheer, Wim

    2006-01-01

    The initial stage of nanoparticle formation and growth in radiofrequency acetylene (C 2 H 2 ) plasmas is investigated by means of a self-consistent one-dimensional fluid model. A detailed chemical kinetic scheme, containing electron impact, ion-neutral, and neutral-neutral reactions, has been developed in order to predict the underlying dust growth mechanisms and the most important dust precursors. The model considers 41 different species (neutrals, radicals, ions, and electrons) describing hydrocarbons (C n H m ) containing up to 12 carbon atoms. Possible routes for particle growth are discussed. Both positive and negative ion reaction pathways are considered, as consecutive anion- and cation-molecule reactions seem to lead to a fast build up of the carbon skeleton

  8. System Dynamics Modeling for Supply Chain Information Sharing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Yang

    In this paper, we try to use the method of system dynamics to model supply chain information sharing. Firstly, we determine the model boundaries, establish system dynamics model of supply chain before information sharing, analyze the model's simulation results under different changed parameters and suggest improvement proposal. Then, we establish system dynamics model of supply chain information sharing and make comparison and analysis on the two model's simulation results, to show the importance of information sharing in supply chain management. We wish that all these simulations would provide scientific supports for enterprise decision-making.

  9. A modeling framework for supply chain simulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Zee, D.J.; van der Vorst, J.G.A.J.

    2002-01-01

    In many industries logistic optimization on a company scale is no longer sufficient to meet the competition. Nowadays, competition takes place between supply chains. Intrinsic to the concept and success of a supply chain is the tuning of the activities of the companies involved. Given the complexity

  10. A maturity model for industrial supply chains

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hameri, A.P.; McKay, K.N.; Wiers, V.C.S.

    2013-01-01

    This article takes an evolutionary view of supply chains to suggest a series of distinct, contextual phases for supply chain execution and what maturity might mean at each phase. For example, what is best practice in a mature industry might not be best practice in a pioneering situation.Three

  11. Electron localization in liquid hydrocarbons: The Anderson model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hug, Gordon L.; Mozumder, A.

    2008-01-01

    Anderson's model is applied for initial localization in liquid hydrocarbons (particularly n-alkanes) in conjunction with certain results of scaling theory. Medium connectivity is calculated using experimental X-ray data on liquid structure, from which critical disorder (W/V) c is computed, where W is diagonal disorder and V is the transfer energy. Actual W prevailing in the liquid is computed from anisotropic molecular polarizability. V is estimated by a heuristic procedure originating in scaling theory. These values are used to compute the percentage of initially delocalized states available for low-energy electrons in alkane liquids. This percentage decreases monotonically from methane (100%) to n-pentane and beyond (0%). In ethane and propane, the initial states are highly delocalized (97.6% and 83.9%, respectively). Subsequent trapping changes the situation as evidenced in mobility studies. Butane presents a partially, intermediate delocalized case (53.2%)

  12. Developing a Model for Agile Supply: an Empirical Study from Iranian Pharmaceutical Supply Chain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajabzadeh Ghatari, Ali; Mehralian, Gholamhossein; Zarenezhad, Forouzandeh; Rasekh, Hamid Reza

    2013-01-01

    Agility is the fundamental characteristic of a supply chain needed for survival in turbulent markets, where environmental forces create additional uncertainty resulting in higher risk in the supply chain management. In addition, agility helps providing the right product, at the right time to the consumer. The main goal of this research is therefore to promote supplier selection in pharmaceutical industry according to the formative basic factors. Moreover, this paper can configure its supply network to achieve the agile supply chain. The present article analyzes the supply part of supply chain based on SCOR model, used to assess agile supply chains by highlighting their specific characteristics and applicability in providing the active pharmaceutical ingredient (API). This methodology provides an analytical modeling; the model enables potential suppliers to be assessed against the multiple criteria using both quantitative and qualitative measures. In addition, for making priority of critical factors, TOPSIS algorithm has been used as a common technique of MADM model. Finally, several factors such as delivery speed, planning and reorder segmentation, trust development and material quantity adjustment are identified and prioritized as critical factors for being agile in supply of API. PMID:24250689

  13. Developing a model for agile supply: an empirical study from Iranian pharmaceutical supply chain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajabzadeh Ghatari, Ali; Mehralian, Gholamhossein; Zarenezhad, Forouzandeh; Rasekh, Hamid Reza

    2013-01-01

    Agility is the fundamental characteristic of a supply chain needed for survival in turbulent markets, where environmental forces create additional uncertainty resulting in higher risk in the supply chain management. In addition, agility helps providing the right product, at the right time to the consumer. The main goal of this research is therefore to promote supplier selection in pharmaceutical industry according to the formative basic factors. Moreover, this paper can configure its supply network to achieve the agile supply chain. The present article analyzes the supply part of supply chain based on SCOR model, used to assess agile supply chains by highlighting their specific characteristics and applicability in providing the active pharmaceutical ingredient (API). This methodology provides an analytical modeling; the model enables potential suppliers to be assessed against the multiple criteria using both quantitative and qualitative measures. In addition, for making priority of critical factors, TOPSIS algorithm has been used as a common technique of MADM model. Finally, several factors such as delivery speed, planning and reorder segmentation, trust development and material quantity adjustment are identified and prioritized as critical factors for being agile in supply of API.

  14. Towards an Empirical-Relational Model of Supply Chain Flexibility

    OpenAIRE

    Santanu Mandal

    2015-01-01

    Supply chains are prone to disruptions and associated risks. To develop capabilities for risk mitigation, supply chains need to be flexible. A flexible supply chain can respond better to environmental contingencies. Based on the theoretical tenets of resource-based view, relational view and dynamic capabilities theory, the current study develops a relational model of supply chain flexibility comprising trust, commitment, communication, co-operation, adaptation and interdependence. Subsequentl...

  15. First principles modeling of hydrocarbons conversion in non-equilibrium plasma

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deminsky, M.A.; Strelkova, M.I.; Durov, S.G.; Jivotov, V.K.; Rusanov, V.D.; Potapkin, B.V. [Russian Research Centre Kurchatov Inst., Moscow (Russian Federation)

    2001-07-01

    Theoretical justification of catalytic activity of non-equilibrium plasma in hydrocarbons conversion process is presented in this paper. The detailed model of highest hydrocarbons conversion includes the gas-phase reactions, chemistry of the growth of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), precursor of soot particles formation, neutral, charged clusters and soot particle formation, ion-molecular gas-phase and heterogeneous chemistry. The results of theoretical analysis are compared with experimental results. (authors)

  16. UNCERTAINTY SUPPLY CHAIN MODEL AND TRANSPORT IN ITS DEPLOYMENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabiana Lucena Oliveira

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available This article discusses the Model Uncertainty of Supply Chain, and proposes a matrix with their transportation modes best suited to their chains. From the detailed analysis of the matrix of uncertainty, it is suggested transportation modes best suited to the management of these chains, so that transport is the most appropriate optimization of the gains previously proposed by the original model, particularly when supply chains are distant from suppliers of raw materials and / or supplies.Here we analyze in detail Agile Supply Chains, which is a result of Uncertainty Supply Chain Model, with special attention to Manaus Industrial Center. This research was done at Manaus Industrial Pole, which is a model of industrial agglomerations, based in Manaus, State of Amazonas (Brazil, which contemplates different supply chains and strategies sharing same infrastructure of transport, handling and storage and clearance process and uses inbound for suppliers of raw material.  The state of art contemplates supply chain management, uncertainty supply chain model, agile supply chains, Manaus Industrial Center (MIC and Brazilian legislation, as a business case, and presents concepts and features, of each one. The main goal is to present and discuss how transport is able to support Uncertainty Supply Chain Model, in order to complete management model. The results obtained confirms the hypothesis of integrated logistics processes are able to guarantee attractivity for industrial agglomerations, and open discussions when the suppliers are far from the manufacturer center, in a logistics management.

  17. Harvest choice and timber supply models for forest forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maksym Polyakov; David N Wear

    2010-01-01

    Timber supply has traditionally been modeled using aggregate data, whereas individual harvest choices have been shown to be sensitive to the vintage and condition of forest capital stocks. In this article, we build aggregate supply models for four roundwood products in a seven-state region of the US South directly from stand-level harvest choice models applied to...

  18. Modeling of shallot supply decisions: the case of Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prabawati, N. F.; Pujawan, I. N.; Widodo, E.

    2018-04-01

    To optimize supply chain role, the players of supply chain need to integrate its function. One of the general problems in supply chain was the unbalanced quantity of sales and quantity of supply. This paper focused on modelling a simple method to manage the gap between the demand and the supply. The gap might cause an overstock or a loss. This paper propose a buffer quantity in order to handle the gap by using import decision. The case study was about shallot supply - demand in Indonesia. In this study we model the supply decisions of shallot in Indonesia. While the demand was quite stable over time, the supply was heavily affected by the yield from the farms. The shortage could result in the government importing shallot from other countries. Hence, the government also needed to have a proper buffering mechanism in order to ensure the supply was sufficient and the price was quite stable. The initial model of this research was built by stochastic parameters and the extended model to gain pricing mechanism was built by Shapley value principal with modification. The primary variables were supply quantity, demand quantity, buffer and purchased quantity (stock needed), actual consumption, and price for three players. The validation proved that the result of price at each player presented a significant difference. Therefore, the model could be applied to decide the stock quantity needed and to keep the price stable at each player especially at the end player which would influence the market price.

  19. Model of service-oriented catering supply chain performance evaluation

    OpenAIRE

    Gou, Juanqiong; Shen, Guguan; Chai, Rui

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: The aim of this paper is constructing a performance evaluation model for service-oriented catering supply chain. Design/methodology/approach: With the research on the current situation of catering industry, this paper summarized the characters of the catering supply chain, and then presents the service-oriented catering supply chain model based on the platform of logistics and information. At last, the fuzzy AHP method is used to evaluate the performance of service-oriented catering ...

  20. Hydrocarbon Fuel Thermal Performance Modeling based on Systematic Measurement and Comprehensive Chromatographic Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-07-31

    distribution unlimited Hydrocarbon Fuel Thermal Performance Modeling based on Systematic Measurement and Comprehensive Chromatographic Analysis Matthew...vital importance for hydrocarbon -fueled propulsion systems: fuel thermal performance as indicated by physical and chemical effects of cooling passage... analysis . The selection and acquisition of a set of chemically diverse fuels is pivotal for a successful outcome since test method validation and

  1. Mathematical modelling on transport of petroleum hydrocarbons in ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Groundwater being the world's most extracted raw material, with withdrawal rates .... and analytical results, while Petroleum Hydro-Carbons (PHC) generally ... and pipeline ruptures form the major source of groundwater contamination by ...

  2. System Dynamics Model for VMI&TPL Integrated Supply Chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guo Li

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper establishes VMI-APIOBPCS II model by extending VMI-APIOBPCS model from serial supply chain to distribution supply chain. Then TPL is introduced to this VMI distribution supply chain, and operational framework and process of VMI&TPL integrated supply chain are analyzed deeply. On this basis VMI-APIOBPCS II model is then changed to VMI&TPL-APIOBPCS model and VMI&TPL integrated operation mode is simulated. Finally, compared with VMI-APIOBPCS model, the TPL’s important role of goods consolidation and risk sharing in VMI&TPL integrated supply chain is analyzed in detail from the aspects of bullwhip effect, inventory level, service level, and so on.

  3. A supply and demand based volatility model for energy prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kanamura, Takashi

    2009-01-01

    This paper proposes a new volatility model for energy prices using the supply-demand relationship, which we call a supply and demand based volatility model. We show that the supply curve shape in the model determines the characteristics of the volatility in energy prices. It is found that the inverse Box-Cox transformation supply curve reflecting energy markets causes the inverse leverage effect, i.e., positive correlation between energy prices and volatility. The model is also used to show that an existing (G)ARCH-M model has the foundations on the supply-demand relationship. Additionally, we conduct the empirical studies analyzing the volatility in the U.S. natural gas prices. (author)

  4. A supply and demand based volatility model for energy prices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kanamura, Takashi [J-POWER, 15-1, Ginza 6-Chome, Chuo-ku, Tokyo 104-8165 (Japan)

    2009-09-15

    This paper proposes a new volatility model for energy prices using the supply-demand relationship, which we call a supply and demand based volatility model. We show that the supply curve shape in the model determines the characteristics of the volatility in energy prices. It is found that the inverse Box-Cox transformation supply curve reflecting energy markets causes the inverse leverage effect, i.e., positive correlation between energy prices and volatility. The model is also used to show that an existing (G)ARCH-M model has the foundations on the supply-demand relationship. Additionally, we conduct the empirical studies analyzing the volatility in the U.S. natural gas prices. (author)

  5. Innovative supply chain optimization models with multiple uncertainty factors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Choi, Tsan Ming; Govindan, Kannan; Li, Xiang

    2017-01-01

    Uncertainty is an inherent factor that affects all dimensions of supply chain activities. In today’s business environment, initiatives to deal with one specific type of uncertainty might not be effective since other types of uncertainty factors and disruptions may be present. These factors relate...... to supply chain competition and coordination. Thus, to achieve a more efficient and effective supply chain requires the deployment of innovative optimization models and novel methods. This preface provides a concise review of critical research issues regarding innovative supply chain optimization models...

  6. Partner Selection Optimization Model of Agricultural Enterprises in Supply Chain

    OpenAIRE

    Feipeng Guo; Qibei Lu

    2013-01-01

    With more and more importance of correctly selecting partners in supply chain of agricultural enterprises, a large number of partner evaluation techniques are widely used in the field of agricultural science research. This study established a partner selection model to optimize the issue of agricultural supply chain partner selection. Firstly, it constructed a comprehensive evaluation index system after analyzing the real characteristics of agricultural supply chain. Secondly, a heuristic met...

  7. Model of service-oriented catering supply chain performance evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juanqiong Gou

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The aim of this paper is constructing a performance evaluation model for service-oriented catering supply chain. Design/methodology/approach: With the research on the current situation of catering industry, this paper summarized the characters of the catering supply chain, and then presents the service-oriented catering supply chain model based on the platform of logistics and information. At last, the fuzzy AHP method is used to evaluate the performance of service-oriented catering supply chain. Findings: With the analysis of the characteristics of catering supply chain, we construct the performance evaluation model in order to guarantee the food safety, logistics efficiency, price stability and so on. Practical implications: In order to evolve an efficient and effective service supply chain, it can not only used to own enterprise improvement, but also can be used for selecting different customers, to choose a different model of development. Originality/value: This paper has a new definition of service-oriented catering supply chain. And it offers a model to evaluate the performance of this catering supply chain.

  8. Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in model bacterial membranes - Langmuir monolayer studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broniatowski, Marcin; Binczycka, Martyna; Wójcik, Aneta; Flasiński, Michał; Wydro, Paweł

    2017-12-01

    High molecular weight polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (HMW-PAHs) are persistent organic pollutants which due to their limited biodegradability accumulate in soils where their increased presence can lead to the impoverishment of the decomposer organisms. As very hydrophobic PAHs easily penetrate cellular membranes of soil bacteria and can be incorporated therein, changing the membrane fluidity and other functions which in consequence can lead to the death of the organism. The structure and size of PAH molecule can be crucial for its membrane activity; however the correlation between PAH structure and its interaction with phospholipids have not been investigated so far. In our studies we applied phospholipid Langmuir monolayers as model bacterial membranes and investigated how the incorporation of six structurally different PAH molecules change the membrane texture and physical properties. In our studies we registered surface pressure and surface potential isotherms upon the monolayer compression, visualized the monolayer texture with the application of Brewster angle microscopy and searched the ordering of the film-forming molecules with molecular resolution with the application of grazing incidence X-ray diffraction (GIXD) method. It turned out that the phospholipid-PAH interactions are strictly structure dependent. Four and five-ring PAHs of the angular or cluster geometry can be incorporated into the model membranes changing profoundly their textures and fluidity; whereas linear or large cluster PAHs cannot be incorporated and separate from the lipid matrix. The observed phenomena were explained based on structural similarities of the applied PAHs with membrane steroids and hopanoids. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  9. A simulation model of a coordinated decentralized linear supply chain

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ashayeri, Jalal; Cannella, S.; Lopez Campos, M.; Miranda, P.A.

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents a simulation-based study of a coordinated, decentralized linear supply chain (SC) system. In the proposed model, any supply tier considers its successors as part of its inventory system and generates replenishment orders on the basis of its partners’ operational information. We

  10. Modeling methodology for supply chain synthesis and disruption analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Teresa; Blackhurst, Jennifer

    2004-11-01

    The concept of an integrated or synthesized supply chain is a strategy for managing today's globalized and customer driven supply chains in order to better meet customer demands. Synthesizing individual entities into an integrated supply chain can be a challenging task due to a variety of factors including conflicting objectives, mismatched incentives and constraints of the individual entities. Furthermore, understanding the effects of disruptions occurring at any point in the system is difficult when working toward synthesizing supply chain operations. Therefore, the goal of this research is to present a modeling methodology to manage the synthesis of a supply chain by linking hierarchical levels of the system and to model and analyze disruptions in the integrated supply chain. The contribution of this research is threefold: (1) supply chain systems can be modeled hierarchically (2) the performance of synthesized supply chain system can be evaluated quantitatively (3) reachability analysis is used to evaluate the system performance and verify whether a specific state is reachable, allowing the user to understand the extent of effects of a disruption.

  11. Near omni-conductors and insulators: Alternant hydrocarbons in the SSP model of ballistic conduction

    OpenAIRE

    Fowler, P.W.; Sciriha, I.; Borg, M.; Seville, V.E.; Pickup, B.T.

    2017-01-01

    Within the source-and-sink-potential model, a complete characterisation is obtained for the conduction behaviour of alternant π-conjugated hydrocarbons (conjugated hydrocarbons without odd cycles). In this model, an omni-conductor has a molecular graph that conducts at the Fermi level irrespective of the choice of connection vertices. Likewise, an omni-insulator is a molecular graph that fails to conduct for any choice of connections. We give a comprehensive classification of possible combina...

  12. Receptor Model Source Apportionment of Nonmethane Hydrocarbons in Mexico City

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Mugica

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available With the purpose of estimating the source contributions of nonmethane hydrocarbons (NMHC to the atmosphere at three different sites in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area, 92 ambient air samples were measured from February 23 to March 22 of 1997. Light- and heavy-duty vehicular profiles were determined to differentiate the NMHC contribution of diesel and gasoline to the atmosphere. Food cooking source profiles were also determined for chemical mass balance receptor model application. Initial source contribution estimates were carried out to determine the adequate combination of source profiles and fitting species. Ambient samples of NMHC were apportioned to motor vehicle exhaust, gasoline vapor, handling and distribution of liquefied petroleum gas (LP gas, asphalt operations, painting operations, landfills, and food cooking. Both gasoline and diesel motor vehicle exhaust were the major NMHC contributors for all sites and times, with a percentage of up to 75%. The average motor vehicle exhaust contributions increased during the day. In contrast, LP gas contribution was higher during the morning than in the afternoon. Apportionment for the most abundant individual NMHC showed that the vehicular source is the major contributor to acetylene, ethylene, pentanes, n-hexane, toluene, and xylenes, while handling and distribution of LP gas was the major source contributor to propane and butanes. Comparison between CMB estimates of NMHC and the emission inventory showed a good agreement for vehicles, handling and distribution of LP gas, and painting operations; nevertheless, emissions from diesel exhaust and asphalt operations showed differences, and the results suggest that these emissions could be underestimated.

  13. Performance analysis of Supply Chain Management with Supply Chain Operation reference model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasibuan, Abdurrozzaq; Arfah, Mahrani; Parinduri, Luthfi; Hernawati, Tri; Suliawati; Harahap, Bonar; Rahmah Sibuea, Siti; Krianto Sulaiman, Oris; purwadi, Adi

    2018-04-01

    This research was conducted at PT. Shamrock Manufacturing Corpora, the company is required to think creatively to implement competition strategy by producing goods/services that are more qualified, cheaper. Therefore, it is necessary to measure the performance of Supply Chain Management in order to improve the competitiveness. Therefore, the company is required to optimize its production output to meet the export quality standard. This research begins with the creation of initial dimensions based on Supply Chain Management process, ie Plan, Source, Make, Delivery, and Return with hierarchy based on Supply Chain Reference Operation that is Reliability, Responsiveness, Agility, Cost, and Asset. Key Performance Indicator identification becomes a benchmark in performance measurement whereas Snorm De Boer normalization serves to equalize Key Performance Indicator value. Analiytical Hierarchy Process is done to assist in determining priority criteria. Measurement of Supply Chain Management performance at PT. Shamrock Manufacturing Corpora produces SC. Responsiveness (0.649) has higher weight (priority) than other alternatives. The result of performance analysis using Supply Chain Reference Operation model of Supply Chain Management performance at PT. Shamrock Manufacturing Corpora looks good because its monitoring system between 50-100 is good.

  14. Modelling of just-in-sequence supply of manufacturing processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bányai Tamás

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The customer oriented production led to the growth of complexity of manufacturing and connected logistics processes. In many production companies one of the largest asset on balance sheet is inventory. To avoid inventory problems and to be the winners of today’s market situation manufacturing companies try to decrease heavy inventory levels through just-in-time based supply strategies. The aim of this research work is to analyse these supply strategies. The first part of the paper describes the just-in-time based supply and summarises the most important characteristics of them. The second part focuses on the modelling of just-in-sequence based in-plant supply. The models makes it possible to determine different in-plant supply strategies.

  15. Hybrid modeling and empirical analysis of automobile supply chain network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Jun-yan; Tang, Jian-ming; Fu, Wei-ping; Wu, Bing-ying

    2017-05-01

    Based on the connection mechanism of nodes which automatically select upstream and downstream agents, a simulation model for dynamic evolutionary process of consumer-driven automobile supply chain is established by integrating ABM and discrete modeling in the GIS-based map. Firstly, the rationality is proved by analyzing the consistency of sales and changes in various agent parameters between the simulation model and a real automobile supply chain. Second, through complex network theory, hierarchical structures of the model and relationships of networks at different levels are analyzed to calculate various characteristic parameters such as mean distance, mean clustering coefficients, and degree distributions. By doing so, it verifies that the model is a typical scale-free network and small-world network. Finally, the motion law of this model is analyzed from the perspective of complex self-adaptive systems. The chaotic state of the simulation system is verified, which suggests that this system has typical nonlinear characteristics. This model not only macroscopically illustrates the dynamic evolution of complex networks of automobile supply chain but also microcosmically reflects the business process of each agent. Moreover, the model construction and simulation of the system by means of combining CAS theory and complex networks supplies a novel method for supply chain analysis, as well as theory bases and experience for supply chain analysis of auto companies.

  16. Feedstock Supply System Design and Economics for Conversion of Lignocellulosic Biomass to Hydrocarbon Fuels: Conversion Pathway: Biological Conversion of Sugars to Hydrocarbons The 2017 Design Case

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kevin Kenney; Kara G. Cafferty; Jacob J. Jacobson; Ian J Bonner; Garold L. Gresham; William A. Smith; David N. Thompson; Vicki S. Thompson; Jaya Shankar Tumuluru; Neal Yancey

    2013-09-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy promotes the production of a range of liquid fuels and fuel blendstocks from lignocellulosic biomass feedstocks by funding fundamental and applied research that advances the state of technology in biomass collection, conversion, and sustainability. As part of its involvement in this program, the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) investigates the feedstock logistics economics and sustainability of these fuels. Between 2000 and 2012, INL conducted a campaign to quantify the economics and sustainability of moving biomass from standing in the field or stand to the throat of the biomass conversion process. The goal of this program was to establish the current costs based on conventional equipment and processes, design improvements to the current system, and to mark annual improvements based on higher efficiencies or better designs. The 2012 programmatic target was to demonstrate a delivered biomass logistics cost of $35/dry ton. This goal was successfully achieved in 2012 by implementing field and process demonstration unit-scale data from harvest, collection, storage, preprocessing, handling, and transportation operations into INL’s biomass logistics model. Looking forward to 2017, the programmatic target is to supply biomass to the conversion facilities at a total cost of $80/dry ton and on specification with in-feed requirements. The goal of the 2017 Design Case is to enable expansion of biofuels production beyond highly productive resource areas by breaking the reliance of cost-competitive biofuel production on a single, abundant, low-cost feedstock. If this goal is not achieved, biofuel plants are destined to be small and/or clustered in select regions of the country that have a lock on low-cost feedstock. To put the 2017 cost target into perspective of past accomplishments of the cellulosic ethanol pathway, the $80 target encompasses total delivered feedstock cost, including both grower payment and logistics costs, while meeting all

  17. Modeling sustainability in renewable energy supply chain systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Fei

    This dissertation aims at modeling sustainability of renewable fuel supply chain systems against emerging challenges. In particular, the dissertation focuses on the biofuel supply chain system design, and manages to develop advanced modeling framework and corresponding solution methods in tackling challenges in sustaining biofuel supply chain systems. These challenges include: (1) to integrate "environmental thinking" into the long-term biofuel supply chain planning; (2) to adopt multimodal transportation to mitigate seasonality in biofuel supply chain operations; (3) to provide strategies in hedging against uncertainty from conversion technology; and (4) to develop methodologies in long-term sequential planning of the biofuel supply chain under uncertainties. All models are mixed integer programs, which also involves multi-objective programming method and two-stage/multistage stochastic programming methods. In particular for the long-term sequential planning under uncertainties, to reduce the computational challenges due to the exponential expansion of the scenario tree, I also developed efficient ND-Max method which is more efficient than CPLEX and Nested Decomposition method. Through result analysis of four independent studies, it is found that the proposed modeling frameworks can effectively improve the economic performance, enhance environmental benefits and reduce risks due to systems uncertainties for the biofuel supply chain systems.

  18. Hydropower recovery in water supply systems: Models and case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vilanova, Mateus Ricardo Nogueira; Balestieri, José Antônio Perrella

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • We present hydropower recovery models for water supply systems. • Hydropower recovery potential in water supply systems is highly variable. • The case studied could make the supply systems self-sufficient in terms of energy. • Hydropower recovery can reduce GHGs emissions and generate carbon credits. - Abstract: The energy efficiency of water supply systems can be increased through the recovery of hydraulic energy implicit to the volumes of water transported in various stages of the supply process, which can be converted into electricity through hydroelectric recovery systems. Such a process allows the use of a clean energy source that is usually neglected in water supplies, reducing its dependence on energy from the local network and the system’s operation costs. This article evaluates the possibilities and benefits of the use of water supply facilities, structures and equipment for hydraulic energy recovery, addressing several applicable hydroelectric models. A real case study was developed in Brazil to illustrate the technical, economic and environmental aspects of hydropower recovery in water supply systems

  19. Model analyses for sustainable energy supply under CO2 restrictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsuhashi, Ryuji; Ishitani, Hisashi.

    1995-01-01

    This paper aims at clarifying key points for realizing sustainable energy supply under restrictions on CO 2 emissions. For this purpose, possibility of solar breeding system is investigated as a key technology for the sustainable energy supply. The authors describe their mathematical model simulating global energy supply and demand in ultra-long term. Depletion of non-renewable resources and constraints on CO 2 emissions are taken into consideration in the model. Computed results have shown that present energy system based on non-renewable resources shifts to a system based on renewable resources in the ultra-long term with appropriate incentives

  20. Supply and Demand Model for the Malaysian Cocoa Market

    OpenAIRE

    Abdel Hameed, Amna Awad; Hasanov, Akram; Idris, Nurjihan; Abdullah, Amin Mahir; Mohamed Arshad, Fatimah; Shamsudin, Mad Nasir

    2009-01-01

    This paper investigates a system of supply, demand, and price equations for Malaysian cocoa using annual data over the period 1975-2008. Theoretically, in supply and demand models, the price variable is treated as endogenous. However, Hausman specification test result indicates that there is no simultaneity problem in the model. Thus, we estimate the system of equations utilizing the Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) estimation technique which might be considered a more effi...

  1. Supply based on demand dynamical model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levi, Asaf; Sabuco, Juan; Sanjuán, Miguel A. F.

    2018-04-01

    We propose and numerically analyze a simple dynamical model that describes the firm behaviors under uncertainty of demand. Iterating this simple model and varying some parameter values, we observe a wide variety of market dynamics such as equilibria, periodic, and chaotic behaviors. Interestingly, the model is also able to reproduce market collapses.

  2. Systems thinking benefits in supply change management:an illustration of the viable systems model in a supply chain

    OpenAIRE

    Chronéer, Diana; Mirijamdotter, Anita

    2009-01-01

    Existing product development models are solely an organisational matter. They do not take into consideration the whole supply chain and its different actors. We investigate in this paper how Supply Chain Management (SCM) and Viable System Model (VSM) can support and create an effective use of information in product development and hence identify critical linkages in the supply chain. The aim is to introduce VSM as a framework that enable an analysis of company's supply chains and visualize vi...

  3. A Model for Sustainable Value Creation in Supply Chain

    OpenAIRE

    KORDİTABAR, Seyed Behzad

    2015-01-01

    Abstract. In order to survive, every company needs to achieve sustainable profitability, which is impossible unless there is sustainable value creation. Regarding the fact that sustainability is closely related with concepts of supply chain management, the present paper intends to propose through a conceptual theorization approach a new comprehensive model drawing on concepts of value creation and sustainability from the perspective of supply chain, specifying the dimensions contributing to s...

  4. A Multiobjective Optimization Model in Automotive Supply Chain Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdolhossein Sadrnia

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In the new decade, green investment decisions are attracting more interest in design supply chains due to the hidden economic benefits and environmental legislative barriers. In this paper, a supply chain network design problem with both economic and environmental concerns is presented. Therefore, a multiobjective optimization model that captures the trade-off between the total logistics cost and CO2 emissions is proposed. With regard to the complexity of logistic networks, a new multiobjective swarm intelligence algorithm known as a multiobjective Gravitational search algorithm (MOGSA has been implemented for solving the proposed mathematical model. To evaluate the effectiveness of the model, a comprehensive set of numerical experiments is explained. The results obtained show that the proposed model can be applied as an effective tool in strategic planning for optimizing cost and CO2 emissions in an environmentally friendly automotive supply chain.

  5. Modelling the long-run supply of coal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Steenblik, R.P.

    1992-01-01

    There are many issues facing policy-makers in the fields of energy and the environment that require knowledge of coal supply and cost. Such questions arise in relation to decisions concerning, for example, the discontinuation of subsidies, or the effects of new environmental laws. The very complexity of these questions makes them suitable for analysis by models. Indeed, models have been used for analysing the behaviour of coal markets and the effects of public policies on them for many years. For estimating short-term responses econometric models are the most suitable. For estimating the supply of coal over the longer term, however - i.e., coal that would come from mines as yet not developed - depletion has to be taken into account. Underlying the normal supply curve relating cost to the rate of production is a curve that increases with cumulative production - what mineral economists refer to as the potential supply curve. To derive such a curve requires at some point in the analysis using process-oriented modelling techniques. Because coal supply curves can convey so succinctly information about the resource's long-run supply potential and costs, they have been influential in several major public debates on energy policy. And, within the coal industry itself, they have proved to be powerful tools for undertaking market research and long-range planning. The purpose of this paper is to describe in brief the various approaches that have been used to model long-run coal supply, to highlight their strengths, and to identify areas in which further progress is needed. (author)

  6. Modeling of materials supply, demand and prices

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-01-01

    The societal, economic, and policy tradeoffs associated with materials processing and utilization, are discussed. The materials system provides the materials engineer with the system analysis required for formulate sound materials processing, utilization, and resource development policies and strategies. Materials system simulation and modeling research program including assessments of materials substitution dynamics, public policy implications, and materials process economics was expanded. This effort includes several collaborative programs with materials engineers, economists, and policy analysts. The technical and socioeconomic issues of materials recycling, input-output analysis, and technological change and productivity are examined. The major thrust areas in materials systems research are outlined.

  7. A global water supply reservoir yield model with uncertainty analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuria, Faith W; Vogel, Richard M

    2014-01-01

    Understanding the reliability and uncertainty associated with water supply yields derived from surface water reservoirs is central for planning purposes. Using a global dataset of monthly river discharge, we introduce a generalized model for estimating the mean and variance of water supply yield, Y, expected from a reservoir for a prespecified reliability, R, and storage capacity, S assuming a flow record of length n. The generalized storage–reliability–yield (SRY) relationships reported here have numerous water resource applications ranging from preliminary water supply investigations, to economic and climate change impact assessments. An example indicates how our generalized SRY relationship can be combined with a hydroclimatic model to determine the impact of climate change on surface reservoir water supply yields. We also document that the variability of estimates of water supply yield are invariant to characteristics of the reservoir system, including its storage capacity and reliability. Standardized metrics of the variability of water supply yields are shown to depend only on the sample size of the inflows and the statistical characteristics of the inflow series. (paper)

  8. How altruism works: An evolutionary model of supply networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ge, Zehui; Zhang, Zi-Ke; Lü, Linyuan; Zhou, Tao; Xi, Ning

    2012-02-01

    Recently, supply networks have attracted increasing attention from the scientific community. However, it lacks serious consideration of social preference in Supply Chain Management. In this paper, we develop an evolutionary decision-making model to characterize the effects of suppliers' altruism in supply networks, and find that the performances of both suppliers and supply chains are improved by introducing the role of altruism. Furthermore, an interesting and reasonable phenomenon is discovered that the suppliers' and whole network's profits do not change monotonously with suppliers' altruistic preference, η, but reach the best at η=0.6 and η=0.4, respectively. This work may shed some light on the in-depth understanding of the effects of altruism for both research and commercial applications.

  9. Using Supply, Demand, and the Cournot Model to Understand Corruption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayford, Marc D.

    2007-01-01

    The author combines the supply and demand model of taxes with a Cournot model of bribe takers to develop a simple and useful framework for understanding the effect of corruption on economic activity. There are many examples of corruption in both developed and developing countries. Because corruption decreases the level of economic activity and…

  10. Reliability modelling - PETROBRAS 2010 integrated gas supply chain

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Faertes, Denise; Heil, Luciana; Saker, Leonardo; Vieira, Flavia; Risi, Francisco; Domingues, Joaquim; Alvarenga, Tobias; Carvalho, Eduardo; Mussel, Patricia

    2010-09-15

    The purpose of this paper is to present the innovative reliability modeling of Petrobras 2010 integrated gas supply chain. The model represents a challenge in terms of complexity and software robustness. It was jointly developed by PETROBRAS Gas and Power Department and Det Norske Veritas. It was carried out with the objective of evaluating security of supply of 2010 gas network design that was conceived to connect Brazilian Northeast and Southeast regions. To provide best in class analysis, state of the art software was used to quantify the availability and the efficiency of the overall network and its individual components.

  11. Dealing with uncertainty in modeling intermittent water supply

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lieb, A. M.; Rycroft, C.; Wilkening, J.

    2015-12-01

    Intermittency in urban water supply affects hundreds of millions of people in cities around the world, impacting water quality and infrastructure. Building on previous work to dynamically model the transient flows in water distribution networks undergoing frequent filling and emptying, we now consider the hydraulic implications of uncertain input data. Water distribution networks undergoing intermittent supply are often poorly mapped, and household metering frequently ranges from patchy to nonexistent. In the face of uncertain pipe material, pipe slope, network connectivity, and outflow, we investigate how uncertainty affects dynamical modeling results. We furthermore identify which parameters exert the greatest influence on uncertainty, helping to prioritize data collection.

  12. Understanding forest-derived biomass supply with GIS modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hock, B. K.; Blomqvist, L.; Hall, P.

    2012-01-01

    distribution, and the cost of delivery as forests are frequently remote from energy users. A GIS-based model was developed to predict supply curves of forest biomass material for a site or group of sites, both now and in the future. The GIS biomass supply model was used to assist the New Zealand Energy...... Efficiency and Conservation Authority's development of a national target for biomass use for industrial heat production, to determine potential forest residue volumes for industrial heat and their delivery costs for 19 processing plants of the dairy company Fonterra, and towards investigating options...

  13. Quantitative Model for Supply Chain Visibility: Process Capability Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Youngsu Lee

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Currently, the intensity of enterprise competition has increased as a result of a greater diversity of customer needs as well as the persistence of a long-term recession. The results of competition are becoming severe enough to determine the survival of company. To survive global competition, each firm must focus on achieving innovation excellence and operational excellence as core competency for sustainable competitive advantage. Supply chain management is now regarded as one of the most effective innovation initiatives to achieve operational excellence, and its importance has become ever more apparent. However, few companies effectively manage their supply chains, and the greatest difficulty is in achieving supply chain visibility. Many companies still suffer from a lack of visibility, and in spite of extensive research and the availability of modern technologies, the concepts and quantification methods to increase supply chain visibility are still ambiguous. Based on the extant researches in supply chain visibility, this study proposes an extended visibility concept focusing on a process capability perspective and suggests a more quantitative model using Z score in Six Sigma methodology to evaluate and improve the level of supply chain visibility.

  14. Model Design on Emergency Power Supply of Electric Vehicle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuanliang Zhao

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available According to the mobile storage characteristic of electric vehicles, an emergency power supply model about the electric vehicles is presented through analyzing its storage characteristic. The model can ensure important consumer loss minimization during power failure or emergency and can make electric vehicles cost minimization about running, scheduling, and vindicating. In view of the random dispersion feature in one area, an emergency power supply scheme using the electric vehicles is designed based on the K-means algorithm. The purpose is to improve the electric vehicles initiative gathering ability and reduce the electric vehicles gathering time. The study can reduce the number of other emergency power supply equipment and improve the urban electricity reliability.

  15. Integrated Supply Network Maturity Model: Water Scarcity Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ekaterina Yatskovskaya

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Today’s supply chains (SCs are more than ever prone to disruptions caused by natural and man-made events with water scarcity identified as one of the highest impact events among these. Leading businesses, understanding that natural resource scarcity (NRS has become a critical supply chain risk factor, extensively incorporate sustainable water management programmes into their corporate social responsibility and environmental management agenda. The question of how industries can efficiently evaluate the progress of these water scarcity mitigation practices, however, remains open. In order to address this question, the present study proposes a conceptual maturity model. The model is rooted in strategies for water scarcity mitigation using a framework developed by Yatskovskaya and Srai and develops an extensive literature review of recent publications on maturity frameworks in the fields of sustainability and operations management. In order to test the proposed proposed, model an exploratory case study with a leading pharmaceutical company was conducted. The proposed maturity model presents an evaluation tool that allows systematic assessment and visualisation of organisational routines and practices relevant to sustainable manufacturing in the context of water scarcity. This model was designed to help illustrate mitigation capabilities evolution over time, where future state desired capabilities were considered through alternative supply network (SN configurations, network structure, process flow, product architecture, and supply partnerships.

  16. New flow boiling heat transfer model for hydrocarbons evaporating inside horizontal tubes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, G. F.; Gong, M. Q.; Wu, J. F.; Zou, X.; Wang, S.

    2014-01-01

    Hydrocarbons have high thermodynamic performances, belong to the group of natural refrigerants, and they are the main components in mixture Joule-Thomson low temperature refrigerators (MJTR). New evaluations of nucleate boiling contribution and nucleate boiling suppression factor in flow boiling heat transfer have been proposed for hydrocarbons. A forced convection heat transfer enhancement factor correlation incorporating liquid velocity has also been proposed. In addition, the comparisons of the new model and other classic models were made to evaluate its accuracy in heat transfer prediction

  17. Closed-Loop Supply Chain Planning Model of Rare Metals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dongmin Son

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Rare metals (RMs are becoming increasingly important in high-tech industries associated with the Fourth Industrial Revolution, such as the electric vehicle (EV and 3D printer industries. As the growth of these industries accelerates in the near future, manufacturers will also face greater RM supply risks. For this reason, many countries are putting considerable effort into securing the RM supply. For example, countries including Japan, Korea, and the USA have adopted two major policies: the stockpile system and Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR. Therefore, it is necessary for the manufacturers with RMs to establish a suitable supply chain plan that reflects this situation. In this study, the RM classification matrix is created based on the stockpile and recycling level in Korea. Accordingly, three different types of supply chain are designed in order to develop the closed-loop supply chain (CLSC planning model of RM, and the CLSC planning models of RM are validated through experimental analysis. The results show that the stockpiling and the EPR recycling obligation increase the amount of recycled flow and reduce the total cost of the part manufacturing, which means that these two factors are significant for obtaining sustainability of the RMs’ CLSC. In addition, the government needs to set an appropriate sharing cost for promoting the manufacturer’s recycling. Also, from the manufacturer’s perspective, it is better to increase the return rate by making a contract with the collectors to guarantee the collection of used products.

  18. Application of Geographic Information System (GIS) to Model the Hydrocarbon Migration: Case Study from North-East Malay Basin, Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudini; Nasir Matori, Abd; Talib, Jasmi Ab; Balogun, Abdul-Lateef

    2018-03-01

    The purpose of this study is to model the migration of hydrocarbon using Geographic Information System (GIS). Understanding hydrocarbon migration is important since it can mean the difference between success and failure in oil and gas exploration project. The hydrocarbon migration modeling using geophysical method is still not accurate due to the limitations of available data. In recent years, GIS has emerged as a powerful tool for subsurface mapping and analysis. Recent studies have been carried out about the abilities of GIS to model hydrocarbon migration. Recent advances in GIS support the establishment and monitoring of prediction hydrocarbon migration. The concept, model, and calculation are based on the current geological situation. The spatial data of hydrocarbon reservoirs is determined by its geometry of lithology and geophysical attributes. Top of Group E horizon of north-east Malay basin was selected as the study area due to the occurrence of hydrocarbon migration. Spatial data and attributes data such as seismic data, wells log data and lithology were acquired and processed. Digital Elevation Model (DEM) was constructed from the selected horizon as a result of seismic interpretation using the Petrel software. Furthermore, DEM was processed in ArcGIS as a base map to shown hydrocarbon migration in north-east Malay Basin. Finally, all the data layers were overlaid to produce a map of hydrocarbon migration. A good data was imported to verify the model is correct.

  19. Application of Geographic Information System (GIS to Model the Hydrocarbon Migration: Case Study from North-East Malay Basin, Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rudini

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to model the migration of hydrocarbon using Geographic Information System (GIS. Understanding hydrocarbon migration is important since it can mean the difference between success and failure in oil and gas exploration project. The hydrocarbon migration modeling using geophysical method is still not accurate due to the limitations of available data. In recent years, GIS has emerged as a powerful tool for subsurface mapping and analysis. Recent studies have been carried out about the abilities of GIS to model hydrocarbon migration. Recent advances in GIS support the establishment and monitoring of prediction hydrocarbon migration. The concept, model, and calculation are based on the current geological situation. The spatial data of hydrocarbon reservoirs is determined by its geometry of lithology and geophysical attributes. Top of Group E horizon of north-east Malay basin was selected as the study area due to the occurrence of hydrocarbon migration. Spatial data and attributes data such as seismic data, wells log data and lithology were acquired and processed. Digital Elevation Model (DEM was constructed from the selected horizon as a result of seismic interpretation using the Petrel software. Furthermore, DEM was processed in ArcGIS as a base map to shown hydrocarbon migration in north-east Malay Basin. Finally, all the data layers were overlaid to produce a map of hydrocarbon migration. A good data was imported to verify the model is correct.

  20. Quantitative model of New Zealand's energy supply industry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, B. R. [Victoria Univ., Wellington, (New Zealand); Lucas, P. D. [Ministry of Energy Resources (New Zealand)

    1977-10-15

    A mathematical model is presented to assist in an analysis of energy policy options available. The model is based on an engineering orientated description of New Zealand's energy supply and distribution system. The system is cast as a linear program, in which energy demand is satisfied at least cost. The capacities and operating modes of process plant (such as power stations, oil refinery units, and LP-gas extraction plants) are determined by the model, as well as the optimal mix of fuels supplied to the final consumers. Policy analysis with the model enables a wide ranging assessment of the alternatives and uncertainties within a consistent quantitative framework. It is intended that the model be used as a tool to investigate the relative effects of various policy options, rather than to present a definitive plan for satisfying the nation's energy requirements.

  1. Profit Analysis and Supply Chain Planning Model for Closed-Loop Supply Chain in Fashion Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jisoo Oh

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In recent decades, due to market growth and use of synthetic fiber, the fashion industry faces a rapid increase of CO2 emission throughout the production cycle and raises environmental issues in recovery processing. This study proposes a closed-loop supply chain (CLSC structure in fashion industry and develops its planning model as multi-objective mixed integer linear programming to find an optimal trade-off between CLSC profit and CO2 emission. The planning model is associated with the profit analysis of each member in CLSC to find the optimal price of products on CLSC network. The model determines optimal production, transportation, and inventory quantities on CLSC network. The proposed models are validated using numerical experiments and sensitivity analyses, and from the results some managerial insights are addressed.

  2. Tactical supply chain planning models with inherent flexibility

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Esmaeilikia, Masoud; Fahimnia, Behnam; Sarkis, Joeseph

    2016-01-01

    Supply chains (SCs) can be managed at many levels. The use of tactical SC planning models with multiple flexibility options can help manage the usual operations efficiently and effectively, whilst improve the SC resiliency in response to inherent environmental uncertainties. This paper defines ta...

  3. Trade and compliance cost model in the international supply chain

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arsyida, Tuty; van Delft, Selma; Rukanova, B.D.; Tan, Y.

    2017-01-01

    Trade costs for international supply chain are huge, even in the absence of formal barriers. It is necessary for all the stakeholders, both private and public organizations, to support an effective and efficient border compliance process. Very little trade cost model research has been done at the

  4. Land transportation model for supply chain manufacturing industries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurniawan, Fajar

    2017-12-01

    Supply chain is a system that integrates production, inventory, distribution and information processes for increasing productivity and minimize costs. Transportation is an important part of the supply chain system, especially for supporting the material distribution process, work in process products and final products. In fact, Jakarta as the distribution center of manufacturing industries for the industrial area. Transportation system has a large influences on the implementation of supply chain process efficiency. The main problem faced in Jakarta is traffic jam that will affect on the time of distribution. Based on the system dynamic model, there are several scenarios that can provide solutions to minimize timing of distribution that will effect on the cost such as the construction of ports approaching industrial areas other than Tanjung Priok, widening road facilities, development of railways system, and the development of distribution center.

  5. Supply chain management models, applications, and research directions

    CERN Document Server

    Pardalos, Panos; Romeijn, H

    2005-01-01

    This work brings together some of the most up to date research in the application of operations research and mathematical modeling te- niques to problems arising in supply chain management and e-Commerce. While research in the broad area of supply chain management enc- passes a wide range of topics and methodologies, we believe this book provides a good snapshot of current quantitative modeling approaches, issues, and trends within the field. Each chapter is a self-contained study of a timely and relevant research problem in supply chain mana- ment. The individual works place a heavy emphasis on the application of modeling techniques to real world management problems. In many instances, the actual results from applying these techniques in practice are highlighted. In addition, each chapter provides important mana- rial insights that apply to general supply chain management practice. The book is divided into three parts. The first part contains ch- ters that address the new and rapidly growing role of the inte...

  6. Model-Based Engineering for Supply Chain Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-30

    Design Language (AADL), which has tools for modeling and compliance verification, provides an effective capability to model and describe all component...the outsourced units in a supply chain can be an impossible task where the product might be composed of 10,000 individual components at the 4th or...can be used to guide the process of monitoring the award and assurance of the outsourced work. Safety-critical verification of cyber-physical

  7. Utilization of biomass: Conversion of model compounds to hydrocarbons over zeolite H-ZSM-5

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mentzel, Uffe Vie; Holm, Martin Spangsberg

    2011-01-01

    Zeolite catalyzed deoxygenation of small oxygenates present in bio-oil or selected as model compounds was performed under Methanol-to-Hydrocarbons (MTH) like reaction conditions using H-ZSM-5 as the catalyst. Co-feeding of the oxygenates with methanol generally decreases catalyst lifetime due...

  8. Quantitative Methods in Supply Chain Management Models and Algorithms

    CERN Document Server

    Christou, Ioannis T

    2012-01-01

    Quantitative Methods in Supply Chain Management presents some of the most important methods and tools available for modeling and solving problems arising in the context of supply chain management. In the context of this book, “solving problems” usually means designing efficient algorithms for obtaining high-quality solutions. The first chapter is an extensive optimization review covering continuous unconstrained and constrained linear and nonlinear optimization algorithms, as well as dynamic programming and discrete optimization exact methods and heuristics. The second chapter presents time-series forecasting methods together with prediction market techniques for demand forecasting of new products and services. The third chapter details models and algorithms for planning and scheduling with an emphasis on production planning and personnel scheduling. The fourth chapter presents deterministic and stochastic models for inventory control with a detailed analysis on periodic review systems and algorithmic dev...

  9. Applying a Dynamic Resource Supply Model in a Smart Grid

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kaiyu Wan

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Dynamic resource supply is a complex issue to resolve in a cyber-physical system (CPS. In our previous work, a resource model called the dynamic resource supply model (DRSM has been proposed to handle resources specification, management and allocation in CPS. In this paper, we are integrating the DRSM with service-oriented architecture and applying it to a smart grid (SG, one of the most complex CPS examples. We give the detailed design of the SG for electricity charging request and electricity allocation between plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV and DRSM through the Android system. In the design, we explain a mechanism for electricity consumption with data collection and re-allocation through ZigBee network. In this design, we verify the correctness of this resource model for expected electricity allocation.

  10. Modeling Turkey’s future LNG supply security strategy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Efe Biresselioglu, Mehmet; Hakan Demir, Muhittin; Kandemir, Cansu

    2012-01-01

    Turkey was among those countries which decided to increase its natural gas consumption in the 1990s, due to its relative low cost and lack of impact on the environment. However, a heavy dependence on imports, from Algeria, Qatar and Nigeria, respectively, creates a threat to energy security, both in terms of source and supply diversity. Accordingly, we follow an analytical approach to identify the accuracy of our assumption, considering the current economic, political and security risk. To this end, we formulate and solve a mixed integer programming model that determines the optimal sourcing strategy for Turkey’s increasing LNG demand. This model demonstrates a number of alternative policy options for LNG supply. Furthermore, we consider that increasing the proportion of LNG in the overall gas supply will contribute to the aim of improving Turkey’s level of energy security. - Highlights: ► Turkey’s best policy option is to increase the share of LNG. ► Turkey’s main suppliers of LNG will be Algeria, Egypt, Nigeria, and Trinidad and Tobago. ► Norway, Libya, and Oman contribute to the supply with rather smaller shares. ► With high risk scenario Algeria, Egypt, Nigeria and Libya will not be suppliers. ► Oman and Qatar will cover; even though they are high-cost suppliers.

  11. An energy supply and demand model for South Africa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silberberg, R.B.

    1981-08-01

    The topic of this thesis is the development of a model of energy supply and demand in South Africa to project energy flows up to the year 2005 and also to assess the implications of policy actions. In this thesis, a method of determining energy flows taking generally accepted economic and technological factors into account is developed. Also, various situations are tested, in order to determine the following: 1) Likely energy flows up to 2005, as well as possible upper and lower bounds. 2) Significant final demand sectors, in terms of energy requirements. 3) The effects of changes in supply and demand sector technology. 4) The implications of policy options such as enengy independence. Owing to the different characteristics of the energy supply and demand sectors, the following techniques were used: 1) Energy demand sectors. 2) Energy supply sectors. 3) Supply/demand equilibration 4) Output. Through successive runs of the model, the policy-maker is able to indentify likely values of energy flows, as well as upper and lower boundaries given the described set of assumptions. The following statements are made as conclusions: 1) The growth rate of domectic coal demand is likely to be 5,5 % per annum up to 2005. 2) The Iron and Steel industry and the Mining industry have the greatest potential effect on coal demand. 3) The coal growth rate stated above implies certain improvements in coal to liquid fuel and electricity conversion. 4) The coal demands of oil energy independence are listed, highlighting the fact that major coal exports and energy independence may be mutually exclusive. Other conclusions regarding capital requirements, oil imports and coking coal utilization are described. The model permits a consistent and inteqrated forecast of national energy flows to be made, providing the policymaker with projections that include the effects of uncertainty with regard to future technologies and economic output. This feature is crucial for policy formulation

  12. Effective food supply chains : generating, modelling and evaluating supply chain scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vorst, van der J.G.A.J.

    2000-01-01

    Logistical co-ordination in FMCG supply chains

    The overall objectives of the research described in this thesis were to obtain insight into the applicability of the concept Supply Chain Management (SCM) in food supply chains (SCs) from a logistical point of view, and to

  13. Transport-location model of mine supply with timber. [Poland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Krause, E; Piasecki, B; Srutwa, J

    1981-01-01

    Underground black coal mines in Poland consume about 2 million m/sup 3/ of wood per year. Wood supply to coal mines will remain constant in spite of the planned coal output increase and assumed deterioration of mining conditions. An economic analysis of cost of rock strata control in coal mines is presented. The analysis concentrates on the proportion of wood cost in the total cost of strata control. Methods for reducing cost of wood supply to coal mines are analyzed using mathematical models. Transport system of wood to coal mines and within coal mines is analyzed. Site selection for storage facilities for wood, particularly wooden props, is evaluated. A mathematical model used for optimizing site selection is described. Economic effects associated with optimizing site selection of storage facilities for wood on mining cost and strata conrol cost in underground mining are described. (4 refs.)

  14. Modeling and Optimization for Management of Intermittent Water Supply

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lieb, A. M.; Wilkening, J.; Rycroft, C.

    2014-12-01

    In many urban areas, piped water is supplied only intermittently, as valves direct water to different parts of the water distribution system at different times. The flow is transient, and may transition between free-surface and pressurized, resulting in complex dynamical features with important consequences for water suppliers and users. These consequences include degradation of distribution system components, compromised water quality, and inequitable water availability. The goal of this work is to model the important dynamics and identify operating conditions that mitigate certain negative effects of intermittent water supply. Specifically, we will look at controlling valve parameters occurring as boundary conditions in a network model of transient, transition flow through closed pipes. Gradient-based optimization will be used to find boundary values to minimize pressure gradients and ensure equitable water availability at system endpoints.

  15. The security of energy infrastructure and supply in North Africa: Hydrocarbons and renewable energies in comparative perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lacher, Wolfram, E-mail: wolfram.lacher@swp-berlin.org [Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik/German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), Berlin (Germany); Kumetat, Dennis, E-mail: d.kumetat@lse.ac.uk [Department of Geography and Environment, London School of Economics and Political Science, London (United Kingdom)

    2011-08-15

    While security risks to energy infrastructure and supply are frequently cited as a source of concern in the public debate on Europe's energy relationships with North Africa, few academic publications have addressed the issue to date. This article focuses on two potential threats to energy security in the North African context: first, intenational disruption of energy supplies by governments; second, attacks by non-state actors on energy infrastructure. Based on an analysis of North African security and energy geopolitics, the article provides an assessment of these threats as they have materialized with regard to existing energy industries, particularly oil and gas. The article then seeks to apply the findings to renewable energy schemes that are currently being discussed and developed, gauging the likelihood and impact of such threats materializing in respect to various technologies, and differentiating between different states of the region. Finally, the article provides recommendations for policy and further research needs for a successful common European-North African energy future. - Research Highlights: >Interest for investments into renewable energy projects in North Africa is growing. >Perceptions of political/security risks to renewables in North Africa are exaggerated. >Investment in renewables would boost interdependencies between Europe, North Africa. >Terrorist attacks unlikely to pose a major threat to renewables projects in North Africa.

  16. The security of energy infrastructure and supply in North Africa: Hydrocarbons and renewable energies in comparative perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lacher, Wolfram; Kumetat, Dennis

    2011-01-01

    While security risks to energy infrastructure and supply are frequently cited as a source of concern in the public debate on Europe's energy relationships with North Africa, few academic publications have addressed the issue to date. This article focuses on two potential threats to energy security in the North African context: first, intenational disruption of energy supplies by governments; second, attacks by non-state actors on energy infrastructure. Based on an analysis of North African security and energy geopolitics, the article provides an assessment of these threats as they have materialized with regard to existing energy industries, particularly oil and gas. The article then seeks to apply the findings to renewable energy schemes that are currently being discussed and developed, gauging the likelihood and impact of such threats materializing in respect to various technologies, and differentiating between different states of the region. Finally, the article provides recommendations for policy and further research needs for a successful common European-North African energy future. - Research Highlights: →Interest for investments into renewable energy projects in North Africa is growing. →Perceptions of political/security risks to renewables in North Africa are exaggerated. →Investment in renewables would boost interdependencies between Europe, North Africa. →Terrorist attacks unlikely to pose a major threat to renewables projects in North Africa.

  17. A coordination theoretic model for three level supply chains using ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    city in fashion industry (Lee & Rhee 2007); two period contract model in case of decentralized assembly system (Zou et al 2008); .... p: Price of product qr : Optimal quantity of retailer Q. ∗ sc: Optimal order quantity of supply chain. S(q): Expected sales at the end of period which can be defined as: S(q) = q(1 − F(q)) −. ∫ q. 0.

  18. Modelling and analysis of workflow for lean supply chains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Jinping; Wang, Kanliang; Xu, Lida

    2011-11-01

    Cross-organisational workflow systems are a component of enterprise information systems which support collaborative business process among organisations in supply chain. Currently, the majority of workflow systems is developed in perspectives of information modelling without considering actual requirements of supply chain management. In this article, we focus on the modelling and analysis of the cross-organisational workflow systems in the context of lean supply chain (LSC) using Petri nets. First, the article describes the assumed conditions of cross-organisation workflow net according to the idea of LSC and then discusses the standardisation of collaborating business process between organisations in the context of LSC. Second, the concept of labelled time Petri nets (LTPNs) is defined through combining labelled Petri nets with time Petri nets, and the concept of labelled time workflow nets (LTWNs) is also defined based on LTPNs. Cross-organisational labelled time workflow nets (CLTWNs) is then defined based on LTWNs. Third, the article proposes the notion of OR-silent CLTWNS and a verifying approach to the soundness of LTWNs and CLTWNs. Finally, this article illustrates how to use the proposed method by a simple example. The purpose of this research is to establish a formal method of modelling and analysis of workflow systems for LSC. This study initiates a new perspective of research on cross-organisational workflow management and promotes operation management of LSC in real world settings.

  19. Modified allocation capacitated planning model in blood supply chain management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mansur, A.; Vanany, I.; Arvitrida, N. I.

    2018-04-01

    Blood supply chain management (BSCM) is a complex process management that involves many cooperating stakeholders. BSCM involves four echelon processes, which are blood collection or procurement, production, inventory, and distribution. This research develops an optimization model of blood distribution planning. The efficiency of decentralization and centralization policies in a blood distribution chain are compared, by optimizing the amount of blood delivered from a blood center to a blood bank. This model is developed based on allocation problem of capacitated planning model. At the first stage, the capacity and the cost of transportation are considered to create an initial capacitated planning model. Then, the inventory holding and shortage costs are added to the model. These additional parameters of inventory costs lead the model to be more realistic and accurate.

  20. Modelling Commodity Demands and Labour Supply with m-Demands

    OpenAIRE

    Browning, Martin

    1999-01-01

    In the empirical modelling of demands and labour supply we often lack data on a full set of goods. The usual response is to invoke separability assumptions. Here we present an alternative based on modelling demands as a function of prices and the quantity of a reference good rather than total expenditure. We term such demands m-demands. The advantage of this approach is that we make maximum use of the data to hand without invoking implausible separability assumptions. In the theory section qu...

  1. Developing a Model for Agile Supply: an Empirical Study from Iranian Pharmaceutical Supply Chain

    OpenAIRE

    Rajabzadeh Ghatari, Ali; Mehralian, Gholamhossein; Zarenezhad, Forouzandeh; Rasekh, Hamid Reza

    2013-01-01

    Agility is the fundamental characteristic of a supply chain needed for survival in turbulent markets, where environmental forces create additional uncertainty resulting in higher risk in the supply chain management. In addition, agility helps providing the right product, at the right time to the consumer. The main goal of this research is therefore to promote supplier selection in pharmaceutical industry according to the formative basic factors. Moreover, this paper can configure its supply n...

  2. Levels & Barriers to Supply Chain Integration: A conceptual model of Supply Chain Performance

    OpenAIRE

    RajaIrfan Sabir; Muhammad Irfan

    2014-01-01

    In modern business scenario Supply chain has become the back bone for every business organization. All supply chain partners are joined together in value delivery network of company that no one can perform better without support of other. The ultimate objective of this cohesive relationship is to deliver value to customers and gets desired state of customer satisfaction & loyalty for the organization. For this purpose it is necessary to integrate the internal and external partners of Supply c...

  3. Chemical kinetic models for combustion of hydrocarbons and formation of nitric oxide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jachimowski, C. J.; Wilson, C. H.

    1980-01-01

    The formation of nitrogen oxides NOx during combustion of methane, propane, and a jet fuel, JP-4, was investigated in a jet stirred combustor. The results of the experiments were interpreted using reaction models in which the nitric oxide (NO) forming reactions were coupled to the appropriate hydrocarbon combustion reaction mechanisms. Comparison between the experimental data and the model predictions reveals that the CH + N2 reaction process has a significant effect on NO formation especially in stoichiometric and fuel rich mixtures. Reaction models were assembled that predicted nitric oxide levels that were in reasonable agreement with the jet stirred combustor data and with data obtained from a high pressure (5.9 atm (0.6 MPa)), prevaporized, premixed, flame tube type combustor. The results also suggested that the behavior of hydrocarbon mixtures, like JP-4, may not be significantly different from that of pure hydrocarbons. Application of the propane combustion and nitric oxide formation model to the analysis of NOx emission data reported for various aircraft gas turbines showed the contribution of the various nitric oxide forming processes to the total NOx formed.

  4. An economic model of international wood supply, forest stock and forest area change

    Science.gov (United States)

    James A. Turner; Joseph Buongiorno; Shushuai Zhu

    2006-01-01

    Wood supply, the link between roundwood removals and forest resources, is an important component of forest sector models. This paper develops a model of international wood supply within the structure of the spatial equilibrium Global Forest Products Model. The wood supply model determines, for each country, the annual forest harvest, the annual change of forest stock...

  5. Formation of radical cations in a model for the metabolism of aromatic hydrocarbons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lehner, Andreas F.; Horn, Jamie; Flesher, James W.

    2004-01-01

    To test the hypothesis that electrophilic radical cations are the major ultimate electrophilic and carcinogenic forms of benz[a]anthracene (BA), dibenz[a,h]anthracene (DBA), and benzo[a]pyrene (BP), we have focused on a chemical model of metabolism which parallels and duplicates known or potential metabolites of some polycyclic hydrocarbons formed in cells. Studies of this model system show that radical cations are hardly formed, if at all, in the case of BA or DBA but are definitely formed in the cases of the carcinogen BP as well as the non-carcinogenic hydrocarbons, pyrene and perylene. We conclude that the carcinogenicities of BA, DBA, BP, pyrene, and perylene are independent of one-electron oxidation to radical cation intermediates

  6. Formalization of hydrocarbon conversion scheme of catalytic cracking for mathematical model development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nazarova, G.; Ivashkina, E.; Ivanchina, E.; Kiseleva, S.; Stebeneva, V.

    2015-11-01

    The issue of improving the energy and resource efficiency of advanced petroleum processing can be solved by the development of adequate mathematical model based on physical and chemical regularities of process reactions with a high predictive potential in the advanced petroleum refining. In this work, the development of formalized hydrocarbon conversion scheme of catalytic cracking was performed using thermodynamic parameters of reaction defined by the Density Functional Theory. The list of reaction was compiled according to the results of feedstock structural-group composition definition, which was done by the n-d-m-method, the Hazelvuda method, qualitative composition of feedstock defined by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry and individual composition of catalytic cracking gasoline fraction. Formalized hydrocarbon conversion scheme of catalytic cracking will become the basis for the development of the catalytic cracking kinetic model.

  7. Modelling a flows in supply chain with analytical models: Case of a chemical industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benhida, Khalid; Azougagh, Yassine; Elfezazi, Said

    2016-02-01

    This study is interested on the modelling of the logistics flows in a supply chain composed on a production sites and a logistics platform. The contribution of this research is to develop an analytical model (integrated linear programming model), based on a case study of a real company operating in the phosphate field, considering a various constraints in this supply chain to resolve the planning problems for a better decision-making. The objectives of this model is to determine and define the optimal quantities of different products to route, to and from the various entities in the supply chain studied.

  8. The role of nuclear energy for Korean long-term energy supply strategy : application of energy demand-supply model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chae, Kyu Nam

    1995-02-01

    An energy demand and supply analysis is carried out to establish the future nuclear energy system of Korea in the situation of environmental restriction and resource depletion. Based on the useful energy intensity concept, a long-term energy demand forecasting model FIN2USE is developed to integrate with a supply model. The energy supply optimization model MESSAGE is improved to evaluate the role of nuclear energy system in Korean long-term energy supply strategy. Long-term demand for useful energy used as an exogeneous input of the energy supply model is derived from the trend of useful energy intensity by sectors and energy carriers. Supply-side optimization is performed for the overall energy system linked with the reactor and nuclear fuel cycle strategy. The limitation of fossil fuel resources and the CO 2 emission constraints are reflected as determinants of the future energy system. As a result of optimization of energy system using linear programming with the objective of total discounted system cost, the optimal energy system is obtained with detailed results on the nuclear sector for various scenarios. It is shown that the relative importance of nuclear energy would increase especially in the cases of CO 2 emission constraint. It is concluded that nuclear reactor strategy and fuel cycle strategy should be incorporated with national energy strategy and be changed according to environmental restriction and energy demand scenarios. It is shown that this modelling approach is suitable for a decision support system of nuclear energy policy

  9. Approximate dynamic fault tree calculations for modelling water supply risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lindhe, Andreas; Norberg, Tommy; Rosén, Lars

    2012-01-01

    Traditional fault tree analysis is not always sufficient when analysing complex systems. To overcome the limitations dynamic fault tree (DFT) analysis is suggested in the literature as well as different approaches for how to solve DFTs. For added value in fault tree analysis, approximate DFT calculations based on a Markovian approach are presented and evaluated here. The approximate DFT calculations are performed using standard Monte Carlo simulations and do not require simulations of the full Markov models, which simplifies model building and in particular calculations. It is shown how to extend the calculations of the traditional OR- and AND-gates, so that information is available on the failure probability, the failure rate and the mean downtime at all levels in the fault tree. Two additional logic gates are presented that make it possible to model a system's ability to compensate for failures. This work was initiated to enable correct analyses of water supply risks. Drinking water systems are typically complex with an inherent ability to compensate for failures that is not easily modelled using traditional logic gates. The approximate DFT calculations are compared to results from simulations of the corresponding Markov models for three water supply examples. For the traditional OR- and AND-gates, and one gate modelling compensation, the errors in the results are small. For the other gate modelling compensation, the error increases with the number of compensating components. The errors are, however, in most cases acceptable with respect to uncertainties in input data. The approximate DFT calculations improve the capabilities of fault tree analysis of drinking water systems since they provide additional and important information and are simple and practically applicable.

  10. A Structural Model of Intellectual Capital in Supply Chains

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Parisi, Cristiana

    Intellectual capital (IC) is probably one of the most critical resources of the knowledge society. However, the discipline of IC still needs empirically grounded research, especially with regards to the interrelations between the different component of IC and how these enable or impinge upon the ...... performance. This result both contributes to the IC and SCM literature, as it offers a better understanding of the multiple interrelations between the IC components from a SCM perspective and provides evidence of their impact on the value creation process of supply chains....... the internal organisational value creation process. The present paper helps to address the need for empirical investigation about the interconnections between the components of IC and their value creation, by assessing the structural effects of intellectual capital on firms’ financial performance from a supply...... chain management perspective. A model composed by five constructs describing intellectual capital and three constructs describing firms’ internal performance is proposed. The theoretical model is then tested through a structural equation modeling technique. The components of intellectual capital...

  11. MODELING GALACTIC EXTINCTION WITH DUST AND 'REAL' POLYCYCLIC AROMATIC HYDROCARBONS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mulas, Giacomo; Casu, Silvia; Cecchi-Pestellini, Cesare [INAF-Osservatorio Astronomico di Cagliari, Strada n.54, Loc. Poggio dei Pini, I-09012 Capoterra (Italy); Zonca, Alberto, E-mail: gmulas@oa-cagliari.inaf.it, E-mail: silvia@oa-cagliari.inaf.it, E-mail: ccp@oa-cagliari.inaf.it, E-mail: azonca@oa-cagliari.inaf.it [Dipartimento di Fisica, Universita di Cagliari, Strada Prov.le Monserrato-Sestu Km 0.700, I-09042 Monserrato (Italy)

    2013-07-01

    We investigate the remarkable apparent variety of galactic extinction curves by modeling extinction profiles with core-mantle grains and a collection of single polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. Our aim is to translate a synthetic description of dust into physically well-grounded building blocks through the analysis of a statistically relevant sample of different extinction curves. All different flavors of observed extinction curves, ranging from the average galactic extinction curve to virtually 'bumpless' profiles, can be described by the present model. We prove that a mixture of a relatively small number (54 species in 4 charge states each) of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons can reproduce the features of the extinction curve in the ultraviolet, dismissing an old objection to the contribution of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons to the interstellar extinction curve. Despite the large number of free parameters (at most the 54 Multiplication-Sign 4 column densities of each species in each ionization state included in the molecular ensemble plus the 9 parameters defining the physical properties of classical particles), we can strongly constrain some physically relevant properties such as the total number of C atoms in all species and the mean charge of the mixture. Such properties are found to be largely independent of the adopted dust model whose variation provides effects that are orthogonal to those brought about by the molecular component. Finally, the fitting procedure, together with some physical sense, suggests (but does not require) the presence of an additional component of chemically different very small carbonaceous grains.

  12. Description of Supply Openings in Numerical Models for Room Air Distribution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Peter V.

    This paper discusses various possibilities for describing supply openings in numerical models of room air distribution.......This paper discusses various possibilities for describing supply openings in numerical models of room air distribution....

  13. Teaching Supply Chain Management Complexities: A SCOR Model Based Classroom Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, G. Scott; Thomas, Stephanie P.; Liao-Troth, Sara

    2014-01-01

    The SCOR (Supply Chain Operations Reference) Model Supply Chain Classroom Simulation is an in-class experiential learning activity that helps students develop a holistic understanding of the processes and challenges of supply chain management. The simulation has broader learning objectives than other supply chain related activities such as the…

  14. Soft computing techniques toward modeling the water supplies of Cyprus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iliadis, L; Maris, F; Tachos, S

    2011-10-01

    This research effort aims in the application of soft computing techniques toward water resources management. More specifically, the target is the development of reliable soft computing models capable of estimating the water supply for the case of "Germasogeia" mountainous watersheds in Cyprus. Initially, ε-Regression Support Vector Machines (ε-RSVM) and fuzzy weighted ε-RSVMR models have been developed that accept five input parameters. At the same time, reliable artificial neural networks have been developed to perform the same job. The 5-fold cross validation approach has been employed in order to eliminate bad local behaviors and to produce a more representative training data set. Thus, the fuzzy weighted Support Vector Regression (SVR) combined with the fuzzy partition has been employed in an effort to enhance the quality of the results. Several rational and reliable models have been produced that can enhance the efficiency of water policy designers. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. An integrated supply chain model for new products with imprecise production and supply under scenario dependent fuzzy random demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagar, Lokesh; Dutta, Pankaj; Jain, Karuna

    2014-05-01

    In the present day business scenario, instant changes in market demand, different source of materials and manufacturing technologies force many companies to change their supply chain planning in order to tackle the real-world uncertainty. The purpose of this paper is to develop a multi-objective two-stage stochastic programming supply chain model that incorporates imprecise production rate and supplier capacity under scenario dependent fuzzy random demand associated with new product supply chains. The objectives are to maximise the supply chain profit, achieve desired service level and minimise financial risk. The proposed model allows simultaneous determination of optimum supply chain design, procurement and production quantities across the different plants, and trade-offs between inventory and transportation modes for both inbound and outbound logistics. Analogous to chance constraints, we have used the possibility measure to quantify the demand uncertainties and the model is solved using fuzzy linear programming approach. An illustration is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model. Sensitivity analysis is performed for maximisation of the supply chain profit with respect to different confidence level of service, risk and possibility measure. It is found that when one considers the service level and risk as robustness measure the variability in profit reduces.

  16. The role of uncertainty in supply chains under dynamic modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Fera

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The uncertainty in the supply chains (SCs for manufacturing and services firms is going to be, over the coming decades, more important for the companies that are called to compete in a new globalized economy. Risky situations for manufacturing are considered in trying to individuate the optimal positioning of the order penetration point (OPP. It aims at defining the best level of information of the client’s order going back through the several supply chain (SC phases, i.e. engineering, procurement, production and distribution. This work aims at defining a system dynamics model to assess competitiveness coming from the positioning of the order in different SC locations. A Taguchi analysis has been implemented to create a decision map for identifying possible strategic decisions under different scenarios and with alternatives for order location in the SC levels. Centralized and decentralized strategies for SC integration are discussed. In the model proposed, the location of OPP is influenced by the demand variation, production time, stock-outs and stock amount. Results of this research are as follows: (i customer-oriented strategies are preferable under high volatility of demand, (ii production-focused strategies are suggested when the probability of stock-outs is high, (iii no specific location is preferable if a centralized control architecture is implemented, (iv centralization requires cooperation among partners to achieve the SC optimum point, (v the producer must not prefer the OPP location at the Retailer level when the general strategy is focused on a decentralized approach.

  17. Modelling and genetic algorithm based optimisation of inverse supply chain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bányai, T.

    2009-04-01

    (Recycling of household appliances with emphasis on reuse options). The purpose of this paper is the presentation of a possible method for avoiding the unnecessary environmental risk and landscape use through unprovoked large supply chain of collection systems of recycling processes. In the first part of the paper the author presents the mathematical model of recycling related collection systems (applied especially for wastes of electric and electronic products) and in the second part of the work a genetic algorithm based optimisation method will be demonstrated, by the aid of which it is possible to determine the optimal structure of the inverse supply chain from the point of view economical, ecological and logistic objective functions. The model of the inverse supply chain is based on a multi-level, hierarchical collection system. In case of this static model it is assumed that technical conditions are permanent. The total costs consist of three parts: total infrastructure costs, total material handling costs and environmental risk costs. The infrastructure-related costs are dependent only on the specific fixed costs and the specific unit costs of the operation points (collection, pre-treatment, treatment, recycling and reuse plants). The costs of warehousing and transportation are represented by the material handling related costs. The most important factors determining the level of environmental risk cost are the number of out of time recycled (treated or reused) products, the number of supply chain objects and the length of transportation routes. The objective function is the minimization of the total cost taking into consideration the constraints. However a lot of research work discussed the design of supply chain [8], but most of them concentrate on linear cost functions. In the case of this model non-linear cost functions were used. The non-linear cost functions and the possible high number of objects of the inverse supply chain leaded to the problem of choosing a

  18. The Economics of Timber Supply: An Analytical Synthesis of Modeling Approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    David N. Wear; Peter J. Parks

    1994-01-01

    The joint supply of timber and other services from forest environments plays a central role in most forest land debates. This paper defines a general conceptual model of timber supply that provides the context for discussing both individual harvest choice and aggregate supply models. While the structure and breadth of these models has developed considerably over the...

  19. Near omni-conductors and insulators: Alternant hydrocarbons in the SSP model of ballistic conduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fowler, Patrick W.; Sciriha, Irene; Borg, Martha; Seville, Victoria E.; Pickup, Barry T.

    2017-10-01

    Within the source-and-sink-potential model, a complete characterisation is obtained for the conduction behaviour of alternant π-conjugated hydrocarbons (conjugated hydrocarbons without odd cycles). In this model, an omni-conductor has a molecular graph that conducts at the Fermi level irrespective of the choice of connection vertices. Likewise, an omni-insulator is a molecular graph that fails to conduct for any choice of connections. We give a comprehensive classification of possible combinations of omni-conducting and omni-insulating behaviour for molecular graphs, ranked by nullity (number of non-bonding orbitals). Alternant hydrocarbons are those that have bipartite molecular graphs; they cannot be full omni-conductors or full omni-insulators but may conduct or insulate within well-defined subsets of vertices (unsaturated carbon centres). This leads to the definition of "near omni-conductors" and "near omni-insulators." Of 81 conceivable classes of conduction behaviour for alternants, only 14 are realisable. Of these, nine are realised by more than one chemical graph. For example, conduction of all Kekulean benzenoids (nanographenes) is described by just two classes. In particular, the catafused benzenoids (benzenoids in which no carbon atom belongs to three hexagons) conduct when connected to leads via one starred and one unstarred atom, and otherwise insulate, corresponding to conduction type CII in the near-omni classification scheme.

  20. Uncertainty Categorization, Modeling, and Management for Regional Water Supply Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fletcher, S.; Strzepek, K. M.; AlSaati, A.; Alhassan, A.

    2016-12-01

    Many water planners face increased pressure on water supply systems from growing demands, variability in supply and a changing climate. Short-term variation in water availability and demand; long-term uncertainty in climate, groundwater storage, and sectoral competition for water; and varying stakeholder perspectives on the impacts of water shortages make it difficult to assess the necessity of expensive infrastructure investments. We categorize these uncertainties on two dimensions: whether they are the result of stochastic variation or epistemic uncertainty, and whether the uncertainties can be described probabilistically or are deep uncertainties whose likelihood is unknown. We develop a decision framework that combines simulation for probabilistic uncertainty, sensitivity analysis for deep uncertainty and Bayesian decision analysis for uncertainties that are reduced over time with additional information. We apply this framework to two contrasting case studies - drought preparedness in Melbourne, Australia and fossil groundwater depletion in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia - to assess the impacts of different types of uncertainty on infrastructure decisions. Melbourne's water supply system relies on surface water, which is impacted by natural variation in rainfall, and a market-based system for managing water rights. Our results show that small, flexible investment increases can mitigate shortage risk considerably at reduced cost. Riyadh, by contrast, relies primarily on desalination for municipal use and fossil groundwater for agriculture, and a centralized planner makes allocation decisions. Poor regional groundwater measurement makes it difficult to know when groundwater pumping will become uneconomical, resulting in epistemic uncertainty. However, collecting more data can reduce the uncertainty, suggesting the need for different uncertainty modeling and management strategies in Riyadh than in Melbourne. We will categorize the two systems and propose appropriate

  1. An Empirical Competence-Capability Model of Supply Chain Innovation

    OpenAIRE

    Mandal, Santanu

    2016-01-01

    Supply chain innovation has become the new pre-requisite for the survival of firms in developing capabilities and strategies for sustaining their operations and performance in the market. This study investigates the influence of supply and demand competence on supply chain innovation and its influence on a firm’s operational and relational performance. While the former competence refers to production and supply management related activities, the latter refers to distribution and demand manage...

  2. Maturity Models in Supply Chain Sustainability: A Systematic Literature Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elisabete Correia

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available A systematic literature review of supply chain maturity models with sustainability concerns is presented. The objective is to give insights into methodological issues related to maturity models, namely the research objectives; the research methods used to develop, validate and test them; the scope; and the main characteristics associated with their design. The literature review was performed based on journal articles and conference papers from 2000 to 2015 using the SCOPUS, Emerald Insight, EBSCO and Web of Science databases. Most of the analysed papers have as main objective the development of maturity models and their validation. The case study is the methodology that is most widely used by researchers to develop and validate maturity models. From the sustainability perspective, the scope of the analysed maturity models is the Triple Bottom Line (TBL and environmental dimension, focusing on a specific process (eco-design and new product development and without a broad SC perspective. The dominant characteristics associated with the design of the maturity models are the maturity grids and a continuous representation. In addition, results do not allow identifying a trend for a specific number of maturity levels. The comprehensive review, analysis, and synthesis of the maturity model literature represent an important contribution to the organization of this research area, making possible to clarify some confusion that exists about concepts, approaches and components of maturity models in sustainability. Various aspects associated with the maturity models (i.e., research objectives, research methods, scope and characteristics of the design of models are explored to contribute to the evolution and significance of this multidimensional area.

  3. Modelling Poly-Aromatic Hydrocarbons "online" with the GEOS-Chem Europe and Asia regional models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivatt, P.; Evans, M. J.

    2017-12-01

    Poly-Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) are carcinogens and so are restricted by international treaties. PAHs are mainly emitted into the atmosphere by domestic (heating and cooking), natural (forest fires burning), as well as some industrial processes (coke ovens). PAHs partition between the gas and particle phase (notably carbonaceous particles) based on their volatility. In recent years, interest has turned to the possible health effects of their oxidation products (both nitrogenated and oxygenated) as it has been suggested that these oxidation products may be even more carcinogenic than the parent PAHs. To increase our understanding of the processes controlling the regional concentrations of PAHs and their oxidation products an "online" PAH model has been developed within the GEOS-Chem framework. This provides for the representation of the coupled aerosol/gas phase chemistry of the parent PAH and its secondary oxidation products. Benzo[a]pyrene is used as an exemplar but the methodology is flexible and the approach can be used for any PAH species. Comparisons are made with observations and the sources of variability discussed.

  4. The Development and Empirical Validation of an E-based Supply Chain Strategy Optimization Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kotzab, Herbert; Skjoldager, Niels; Vinum, Thorkil

    2003-01-01

    Examines the formulation of supply chain strategies in complex environments. Argues that current state‐of‐the‐art e‐business and supply chain management, combined into the concept of e‐SCM, as well as the use of transaction cost theory, network theory and resource‐based theory, altogether can...... be used to form a model for analyzing supply chains with the purpose of reducing the uncertainty of formulating supply chain strategies. Presents e‐supply chain strategy optimization model (e‐SOM) as a way to analyze supply chains in a structured manner as regards strategic preferences for supply chain...... design, relations and resources in the chains with the ultimate purpose of enabling the formulation of optimal, executable strategies for specific supply chains. Uses research results for a specific supply chain to validate the usefulness of the model....

  5. A coordination theoretic model for three level supply chains using ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Typically, supply chain members are dependent on each other to manage various resources and information. The conflicting objectives and lack of coordination between supply chain members may often cause uncertainties in supply and demand. The basic elements of coordination theory like interdependency, coherency ...

  6. A strategic model of European gas supply (GASMOD)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holz, Franziska; Hirschhausen, Christian von; Kemfert, Claudia

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents a model of the European natural gas supply, GASMOD, which is structured as a two-stage-game of successive natural gas exports to Europe (upstream market) and wholesale trade within Europe (downstream market) and which explicitly includes infrastructure capacities. We compare three possible market scenarios: Cournot competition in both markets, perfect competition in both markets, and perfect competition in the downstream with Cournot competition in the upstream market (EU liberalization). We find that Cournot competition in both markets is the most accurate representation of today's European natural gas market, where suppliers at both stages generate a mark-up at the expense of the final customer (double marginalization). Our results yield a diversified supply portfolio with newly emerging (LNG) exporters gaining market shares. Enforcing competition in the European downstream market would lead to lower prices and higher quantities by avoiding the welfare-reducing effects of double marginalization. Binding infrastructure capacity restrictions strongly influence the results, and we identify bottlenecks mainly for intra-European trade relations whereas transport capacity in the upstream market is globally sufficient in the Cournot scenario. (author)

  7. Consequence and Resilience Modeling for Chemical Supply Chains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stamber, Kevin L.; Vugrin, Eric D.; Ehlen, Mark A.; Sun, Amy C.; Warren, Drake E.; Welk, Margaret E.

    2011-01-01

    The U.S. chemical sector produces more than 70,000 chemicals that are essential material inputs to critical infrastructure systems, such as the energy, public health, and food and agriculture sectors. Disruptions to the chemical sector can potentially cascade to other dependent sectors, resulting in serious national consequences. To address this concern, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) tasked Sandia National Laboratories to develop a predictive consequence modeling and simulation capability for global chemical supply chains. This paper describes that capability , which includes a dynamic supply chain simulation platform called N_ABLE(tm). The paper also presents results from a case study that simulates the consequences of a Gulf Coast hurricane on selected segments of the U.S. chemical sector. The case study identified consequences that include impacted chemical facilities, cascading impacts to other parts of the chemical sector. and estimates of the lengths of chemical shortages and recovery . Overall. these simulation results can DHS prepare for and respond to actual disruptions.

  8. Reflections about the modelling of unconfined explosions of air-hydrocarbon mixtures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hendrickx, S.; Lannoy, A.

    1983-01-01

    To design nuclear power plants structures, an evaluation of hazards which can be induced by the industrial activities is needed. These hazards namely involve explosions of flamable air-hydrocarbon gas clouds. Such clouds can drift before ignition, and, when ignited, the generated pressure wave can cause serious damage, even far from the initial accident location. When the designs an industrial plant, the designer has to predict the overpressures capable of jeopardizing the safety functions of the plant. The analysis of real accidental explosions which have actually occurred, on the basis of a total explosion yield and the TNT equivalency concept, is a first step. Indeed, it allows a total explosion yield to be calculated, an empirical TNT equivalent of hydrocarbon to be deducted. Unfortunately, this TNT equivalency concept is scientifically not satisfying. The modelling of an unconfined air-hydrocarbon detonation can be used for safety analysis, if we assume that an unconfined explosion can be a detonation, which is unlikely. (orig./WL)

  9. Application of numerical modeling of selective NOx reduction by hydrocarbon under diesel transient conditions in consideration of hydrocarbon adsorption and desorption process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watanabe, Y.; Asano, A.; Banno, K.; Yokota, K.; Sugiura, M.

    2001-01-01

    A model of NO x selective reduction by hydrocarbon (HC) was developed, which takes into account the adsorption and desorption of HC. The model was applied for predicting the performance of a De-NO x catalytic reactor, working under transient conditions such as a legislative driving cycle. Diesel fuel was used as a supplemental reductant. The behavior of HC and NO x reactions and HC adsorption and desorption has been simulated successfully by our numerical approach under the transient conditions of the simulated Japanese 10-15 driving cycle. Our model is expected to optimize the design of selective diesel NO x reduction systems using a diesel fuel as a supplemental reductant

  10. Effect of turbulence models on predicting convective heat transfer to hydrocarbon fuel at supercritical pressure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tao Zhi

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available A variety of turbulence models were used to perform numerical simulations of heat transfer for hydrocarbon fuel flowing upward and downward through uniformly heated vertical pipes at supercritical pressure. Inlet temperatures varied from 373 K to 663 K, with heat flux ranging from 300 kW/m2 to 550 kW/m2. Comparative analyses between predicted and experimental results were used to evaluate the ability of turbulence models to respond to variable thermophysical properties of hydrocarbon fuel at supercritical pressure. It was found that the prediction performance of turbulence models is mainly determined by the damping function, which enables them to respond differently to local flow conditions. Although prediction accuracy for experimental results varied from condition to condition, the shear stress transport (SST and launder and sharma models performed better than all other models used in the study. For very small buoyancy-influenced runs, the thermal-induced acceleration due to variations in density lead to the impairment of heat transfer occurring in the vicinity of pseudo-critical points, and heat transfer was enhanced at higher temperatures through the combined action of four thermophysical properties: density, viscosity, thermal conductivity and specific heat. For very large buoyancy-influenced runs, the thermal-induced acceleration effect was over predicted by the LS and AB models.

  11. Modeling integrated water user decisions in intermittent supply systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenberg, David E.; Tarawneh, Tarek; Abdel-Khaleq, Rania; Lund, Jay R.

    2007-07-01

    We apply systems analysis to estimate household water use in an intermittent supply system considering numerous interdependent water user behaviors. Some 39 household actions include conservation; improving local storage or water quality; and accessing sources having variable costs, availabilities, reliabilities, and qualities. A stochastic optimization program with recourse decisions identifies the infrastructure investments and short-term coping actions a customer can adopt to cost-effectively respond to a probability distribution of piped water availability. Monte Carlo simulations show effects for a population of customers. Model calibration reproduces the distribution of billed residential water use in Amman, Jordan. Parametric analyses suggest economic and demand responses to increased availability and alternative pricing. It also suggests potential market penetration for conservation actions, associated water savings, and subsidies to entice further adoption. We discuss new insights to size, target, and finance conservation.

  12. Modelling the Effects of a Predictable Money Supply of Bitcoin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jakub Jedlinský

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper examines effects of a predefined and immutable money supply using a simulation performed in Minsky. It uses the cryptocurrency Bitcoin as an example and compares its settings and outcomes with Euro as a credit based fiat currency. Minsky is a specialized software for creating SFC economic models. It operates in continuous time. Unlike Euro, Bitcoin is a non-liability currency. It is not being issued against debt and it does not allow a fiduciary issue. The study examines the economy of the EU complexly, focusing on its monetary system, using Eurostat data. Then it changes the rules of the system so that they comply with the rules of Bitcoin’s protocol. The performed simulations show different effects of these monetary settings on wealth distribution among particular groups of economic subjects as well as on the stability of the economy as a whole after some time has passed.

  13. Risk of the Maritime Supply Chain System Based on Interpretative Structural Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiang He

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Marine transportation is the most important transport mode of in the international trade, but the maritime supply chain is facing with many risks. At present, most of the researches on the risk of the maritime supply chain focus on the risk identification and risk management, and barely carry on the quantitative analysis of the logical structure of each influencing factor. This paper uses the interpretative structure model to analysis the maritime supply chain risk system. On the basis of comprehensive literature analysis and expert opinion, this paper puts forward 16 factors of maritime supply chain risk system. Using the interpretative structure model to construct maritime supply chain risk system, and then optimize the model. The model analyzes the structure of the maritime supply chain risk system and its forming process, and provides a scientific basis for the controlling the maritime supply chain risk, and puts forward some corresponding suggestions for the prevention and control the maritime supply chain risk.

  14. Global Expanded Nutrient Supply (GENuS Model: A New Method for Estimating the Global Dietary Supply of Nutrients.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew R Smith

    Full Text Available Insufficient data exist for accurate estimation of global nutrient supplies. Commonly used global datasets contain key weaknesses: 1 data with global coverage, such as the FAO food balance sheets, lack specific information about many individual foods and no information on micronutrient supplies nor heterogeneity among subnational populations, while 2 household surveys provide a closer approximation of consumption, but are often not nationally representative, do not commonly capture many foods consumed outside of the home, and only provide adequate information for a few select populations. Here, we attempt to improve upon these datasets by constructing a new model--the Global Expanded Nutrient Supply (GENuS model--to estimate nutrient availabilities for 23 individual nutrients across 225 food categories for thirty-four age-sex groups in nearly all countries. Furthermore, the model provides historical trends in dietary nutritional supplies at the national level using data from 1961-2011. We determine supplies of edible food by expanding the food balance sheet data using FAO production and trade data to increase food supply estimates from 98 to 221 food groups, and then estimate the proportion of major cereals being processed to flours to increase to 225. Next, we estimate intake among twenty-six demographic groups (ages 20+, both sexes in each country by using data taken from the Global Dietary Database, which uses nationally representative surveys to relate national averages of food consumption to individual age and sex-groups; for children and adolescents where GDD data does not yet exist, average calorie-adjusted amounts are assumed. Finally, we match food supplies with nutrient densities from regional food composition tables to estimate nutrient supplies, running Monte Carlo simulations to find the range of potential nutrient supplies provided by the diet. To validate our new method, we compare the GENuS estimates of nutrient supplies against

  15. Adapting transport modes to supply chains classified by the uncertainty supply chain model: A case study at Manaus Industrial Pole

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabiana Lucena Oliveira

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper discusses transport modes supporting Uncertainty Supply Chain Model (USCM in the case of Manaus Industrial Pole (PIM, an industrial cluster in the Brazilian Amazon that hosts six hundred factories with diverse logistics and supply chain managerial strategies. USCM (Lee, 2002; Fisher, 1997develops a dot matrix classification of the supply chains considering several attributes (e.g., agility, cost, security, responsiveness and argues that emergent economies industrial clusters, in the effort to keep attractiveness for technological frontier firms, need to adapt supply chain strategies according to USCM attributes. The paper takes a further step, discussing which transport modes are suitable to each supply chain classified at the USCM in PIM´s case. The research´s methods covered the use of PIM´s statistical official database (secondary data, interviews with the main logistical services providers of PIM and phone survey with a sample of firms (primary data. Findings confirm the theoretical argument that different supply chains will demand different transport modes running at the same time in the same industrial cluster (Oliveira, 2009. In the case of PIM, this implies investments on port and airport infrastructure and a strategic focus on air transport mode, due to (1 short life cycle of products, (2 distance from suppliers, (3 quick response to demand and (4 the fact that even PIM´s standard products use, in average, forty per cent of air transport at inbound logistics.

  16. Modelling Fresh Strawberry Supply “From-Farm-to-Fork” as a Complex Adaptive Network

    OpenAIRE

    Engelseth, Per; Karlsen, Anniken; Verwaart, Tim

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to model and thereby enable simulation of the complete business entity of fresh food supply. A case narrative of fresh strawberry supply provides basis for this modelling. Lamming et al. (2000) point to the importance of discerning industry-specific product features (or particularities) regarding managing supply networks when discussing elements in “an initial classification of a supply network” while Fisher (1997) and Christopher et al. (2006, 2009) point to the ...

  17. Hydrocarbon migration and accumulation in the Upper Cretaceous Qingshankou Formation, Changling Sag, southern Songliao Basin: Insights from integrated analyses of fluid inclusion, oil source correlation and basin modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Tian; He, Sheng; Wang, Dexi; Hou, Yuguang

    2014-08-01

    The Upper Cretaceous Qingshankou Formation acts as both the source and reservoir sequence in the Changling Sag, situated in the southern end of the Songliao Basin, northeast China. An integrated approach involving determination of hydrocarbon charging history, oil source correlation and hydrocarbon generation dynamic modeling was used to investigate hydrocarbon migration processes and further predict the favorable targets of hydrocarbon accumulations in the Qingshankou Formation. The hydrocarbon generation and charge history was investigated using fluid inclusion analysis, in combination with stratigraphic burial and thermal modeling. The source rocks began to generate hydrocarbons at around 82 Ma and the hydrocarbon charge event occurred from approximately 78 Ma to the end of Cretaceous (65.5 Ma) when a large tectonic uplift took place. Correlation of stable carbon isotopes of oils and extracts of source rocks indicates that oil was generated mainly from the first member of Qingshankou Formation (K2qn1), suggesting that hydrocarbon may have migrated vertically. Three dimensional (3D) petroleum system modeling was used to evaluate the processes of secondary hydrocarbon migration in the Qingshankou Formation since the latest Cretaceous. During the Late Cretaceous, hydrocarbon, mainly originated from the Qianan depression, migrated laterally to adjacent structural highs. Subsequent tectonic inversion, defined as the late Yanshan Orogeny, significantly changed hydrocarbon migration patterns, probably causing redistribution of primary hydrocarbon reservoirs. In the Tertiary, the Heidimiao depression was buried much deeper than the Qianan depression and became the main source kitchen. Hydrocarbon migration was primarily controlled by fluid potential and generally migrated from relatively high potential areas to low potential areas. Structural highs and lithologic transitions are potential traps for current oil and gas exploration. Finally, several preferred hydrocarbon

  18. Assessment of atmospheric distribution of polychlorinated biphenyls and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons using polyparameter model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Turk-Sekulić Maja M.

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Results of partial or total destruction of industrial plants, military targets, infrastructure, uncontrolled fires and explosions during the conflict period from 1991 to 1999, at the area of Western Balkans, were large amounts of hazardous organic matter that have been generated and emitted in the environment. In order to assess gas/particle partition of seven EPA polychlorinated biphenyls and sixteen EPA polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, twenty air samples have been collected at six urban, industrial and highly contaminated localities in Vojvodina. Hi-Vol methodology has been used for collecting ambiental air samples, that simultaneously collects gaseous and particulate phase with polyurethane foam filters (PUF and glass fiber filters (GFF. PUF and GFF filters have been analyzed, and concentration levels of gaseous PCBs and PAHs molecules in gaseous and particulate phase were obtained, converted and expressed through fraction of individual compounds sorbed onto particulate phase of the sample, in total detected quantity. Experimentally gained gas/particle partitioning values of PCBs and PAHs molecules have been compared with PP-LFER model estimated values. Significant deviation has been noticed during comparative analysis of estimated polyparameter model values for complete set of seven PCBs congeners. Much better agreement of experimental and estimated values is for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, especially for molecules with four rings. These results are in a good correlation with literature data where polyparameter model has been used for predicting gas/particle partition of studied group of organic molecules.

  19. Novel extension of the trap model for electrons in liquid hydrocarbons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jamal, M.A.; Watt, D.E.

    1981-01-01

    A novel extension for the trap model of electron mobilities in liquid hydrocarbons is described. The new model assumes: (a) two main types of electron trap exist in liquid hydrocarbons, one is deep and the second is shallow; (b) these traps are the same in all liquid alkanes. The difference in electron mobilities in different alkanes is accounted for by the difference in the frequency of electron trapping in each state. The probability of trapping in each state has been evaluated from the known structures of the normal alkanes. Electron mobilities in normal alkanes (C 3 -C 10 ) show a very good correlation with the probability of trapping in deep traps, suggesting that the C-C bonds are the main energy sinks of the electron. A mathematical formula which expresses the electron mobility in terms of the probability of trapping in deep traps has been found from the Arrhenius relationship between electron mobilities and probability of trapping. The model has been extended for branched alkanes and the relatively high electron mobilities in globular alkanes has been explained by the fact that each branch provides some degree of screening to the skeleton structure of the molecule resulting in reduction of the probability of electron interaction with the molecular skeleton. (author)

  20. A Geochemical Model of Fluids and Mineral Interactions for Deep Hydrocarbon Reservoirs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jun Li

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available A mutual solubility model for CO2-CH4-brine systems is constructed in this work as a fundamental research for applications of deep hydrocarbon exploration and production. The model is validated to be accurate for wide ranges of temperature (0–250°C, pressure (1–1500 bar, and salinity (NaCl molality from 0 to more than 6 mole/KgW. Combining this model with PHREEQC functionalities, CO2-CH4-brine-carbonate-sulfate equilibrium is calculated. From the calculations, we conclude that, for CO2-CH4-brine-carbonate systems, at deeper positions, magnesium is more likely to be dissolved in aqueous phase and calcite can be more stable than dolomite and, for CO2-CH4-brine-sulfate systems, with a presence of CH4, sulfate ions are likely to be reduced to S2− and H2S in gas phase could be released after S2− saturated in the solution. The hydrocarbon “souring” process could be reproduced from geochemical calculations in this work.

  1. A simple one-step chemistry model for partially premixed hydrocarbon combustion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fernandez-Tarrazo, Eduardo [Instituto Nacional de Tecnica Aeroespacial, Madrid (Spain); Sanchez, Antonio L. [Area de Mecanica de Fluidos, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, Leganes 28911 (Spain); Linan, Amable [ETSI Aeronauticos, Pl. Cardenal Cisneros 3, Madrid 28040 (Spain); Williams, Forman A. [Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093-0411 (United States)

    2006-10-15

    This work explores the applicability of one-step irreversible Arrhenius kinetics with unity reaction order to the numerical description of partially premixed hydrocarbon combustion. Computations of planar premixed flames are used in the selection of the three model parameters: the heat of reaction q, the activation temperature T{sub a}, and the preexponential factor B. It is seen that changes in q with equivalence ratio f need to be introduced in fuel-rich combustion to describe the effect of partial fuel oxidation on the amount of heat released, leading to a universal linear variation q(f) for f>1 for all hydrocarbons. The model also employs a variable activation temperature T{sub a}(f) to mimic changes in the underlying chemistry in rich and very lean flames. The resulting chemistry description is able to reproduce propagation velocities of diluted and undiluted flames accurately over the whole flammability limit. Furthermore, computations of methane-air counterflow diffusion flames are used to test the proposed chemistry under nonpremixed conditions. The model not only predicts the critical strain rate at extinction accurately but also gives near-extinction flames with oxygen leakage, thereby overcoming known predictive limitations of one-step Arrhenius kinetics. (author)

  2. Using an Integrated Hydrologic-Economic Model to Develop Minimum Cost Water Supply Portfolios and Manage Supply Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Characklis, G. W.; Ramsey, J.

    2004-12-01

    Water scarcity has become a reality in many areas as a result of population growth, fewer available sources, and reduced tolerance for the environmental impacts of developing the new supplies that do exist. As a result, successfully managing future water supply risk will become more dependent on coordinating the use of existing resources. Toward that end, flexible supply strategies that can rapidly respond to hydrologic variability will provide communities with increasing economic advantages, particularly if the frequency of more extreme events (e.g., drought) increases due to global climate change. Markets for established commodities (e.g., oil, gas) often provide a framework for efficiently responding to changes in supply and demand. Water markets, however, have remained relatively crude, with most transactions involving permanent transfers and long regulatory processes. Recently, interest in the use of flexible short-term transfers (e.g., leases, options) has begun to motivate consideration of more sophisticated strategies for managing supply risk, strategies similar to those used in more mature markets. In this case, communities can benefit from some of the advantages that water enjoys over other commodities, in particular, the ability to accurately characterize the stochastic nature of supply and demand through hydrologic modeling. Hydrologic-economic models are developed for two different water scarce regions supporting active water markets: Edward Aquifer and Lower Rio Grande Valley. These models are used to construct portfolios of water supply transfers (e.g., permanent transfers, options, and spot leases) that minimize the cost of meeting a probabilistic reliability constraint. Real and simulated spot price distributions allow each type of transfer to be priced in a manner consistent with financial theory (e.g., Black-Scholes). Market simulations are integrated with hydrologic models such that variability in supply and demand are linked with price behavior

  3. Statistical model for expected un supplied energy; Statistisk modell for forventet ILE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2005-07-01

    Results from a statistical analysis of expected un supplied energy for Norwegian network companies are presented. The data are from the years 1996-2004. The estimation model includes several explanatory variables that together reflect the characteristics of the network, climatic aspects and other geographical conditions. The model has a high degree of accuracy when compared to the historical number of un supplied energy for about 90 percent of the network companies. But for 12 companies there are substantial, negative deviances that are not compatible with the available data. There is reason to believe that improved data for some types of variables can improve the accuracy of the model. In addition to establishing a norm for expected un supplied energy in the revenue estimations, the model can be used to reflect geographical constraints in NVEs (Norwegian Water and Energy directorate) efficiency analyses (ml)

  4. Operational modeling of a sustainable gas supply chain

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bekkering, Jan; Broekhuis, A. A.; van Gemert, Wim

    2010-01-01

    Biogas production from codigestion of cattle manure and biomass can have a significant contribution to a sustainable gas supply when this gas is upgraded to specifications prescribed for injection into the national gas grid and injected into this grid. In this study, we analyzed such a gas supply

  5. Network evolution model for supply chain with manufactures as the core

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Dali; Fang, Ling; Yang, Jian; Li, Wu; Zhao, Jing

    2018-01-01

    Building evolution model of supply chain networks could be helpful to understand its development law. However, specific characteristics and attributes of real supply chains are often neglected in existing evolution models. This work proposes a new evolution model of supply chain with manufactures as the core, based on external market demand and internal competition-cooperation. The evolution model assumes the external market environment is relatively stable, considers several factors, including specific topology of supply chain, external market demand, ecological growth and flow conservation. The simulation results suggest that the networks evolved by our model have similar structures as real supply chains. Meanwhile, the influences of external market demand and internal competition-cooperation to network evolution are analyzed. Additionally, 38 benchmark data sets are applied to validate the rationality of our evolution model, in which, nine manufacturing supply chains match the features of the networks constructed by our model. PMID:29370201

  6. Network evolution model for supply chain with manufactures as the core.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Haiyang; Jiang, Dali; Yang, Tinghong; Fang, Ling; Yang, Jian; Li, Wu; Zhao, Jing

    2018-01-01

    Building evolution model of supply chain networks could be helpful to understand its development law. However, specific characteristics and attributes of real supply chains are often neglected in existing evolution models. This work proposes a new evolution model of supply chain with manufactures as the core, based on external market demand and internal competition-cooperation. The evolution model assumes the external market environment is relatively stable, considers several factors, including specific topology of supply chain, external market demand, ecological growth and flow conservation. The simulation results suggest that the networks evolved by our model have similar structures as real supply chains. Meanwhile, the influences of external market demand and internal competition-cooperation to network evolution are analyzed. Additionally, 38 benchmark data sets are applied to validate the rationality of our evolution model, in which, nine manufacturing supply chains match the features of the networks constructed by our model.

  7. Network evolution model for supply chain with manufactures as the core.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haiyang Fang

    Full Text Available Building evolution model of supply chain networks could be helpful to understand its development law. However, specific characteristics and attributes of real supply chains are often neglected in existing evolution models. This work proposes a new evolution model of supply chain with manufactures as the core, based on external market demand and internal competition-cooperation. The evolution model assumes the external market environment is relatively stable, considers several factors, including specific topology of supply chain, external market demand, ecological growth and flow conservation. The simulation results suggest that the networks evolved by our model have similar structures as real supply chains. Meanwhile, the influences of external market demand and internal competition-cooperation to network evolution are analyzed. Additionally, 38 benchmark data sets are applied to validate the rationality of our evolution model, in which, nine manufacturing supply chains match the features of the networks constructed by our model.

  8. The computer simulation of the resonant network for the B-factory model power supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhou, W.; Endo, K.

    1993-07-01

    A high repetition model power supply and the resonant magnet network are simulated with the computer in order to check and improve the design of the power supply for the B-factory booster. We put our key point on a transient behavior of the power supply and the resonant magnet network. The results of the simulation are given. (author)

  9. Designing Leadership models in a Three Level Unlimited Supply Chain: Non-Cooperative Game Theory Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmad Jaafarnehad

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The role and importance of supply chain management, has faced with many challenges and problems. Although a comprehensive model of supply chain issues, has not been explained, we have to indicate that issues such as reviewing the theoretical foundations of information systems, marketing, financial management, logistical and organizational relations have been considered by many researchers. The objective of supply chain management is to improve various activities and components to increase overall supply chain system benefits. In order to achieve the overall objectives, many contradictions may occur between the components and different levels of supply chain and the contradictions that these disorders over time, result in decreased strength and competitiveness of the supply chain. Such conflicts, like marketing costs (advertising, pricing and inventory can occur during the supply chain life cycle. A Game Theory approach with respect to property is the appropriate tool for collaboration in the supply chain. This tool is used for collaborative making in any kind of supply chain such as cooperative supply chain and non-cooperative supply chain. In the present study and assuming a lack of cooperation between different levels of a supply chain, a dynamic game with complete information has been generated. In addition identifying appropriate leaders of various levels of the supply chain is considered. Non-Cooperative dynamic game mode (Stackelberg Game, for each of the three levels of supply chain including retailers, suppliers and manufacturers are modeled. Depending on the bargaining power and its position in the market, any level of supply chain can make a leader of the following rule. In the present study, the equilibrium model to play Stackelberg game may be led by a leader or leading players and ultimately identifying and modeling the appropriate unlimited three level supply chain are determined.

  10. Supply Chain Simulation using Business Process Modeling in Service Oriented Architecture

    OpenAIRE

    Taejong Yoo

    2015-01-01

    For supply chain optimization, as a key determinant of strategic resources mobility along the value-added chain, simulation is widely used to test the impact on supply chain performance for the strategic level decisions, such as the number of plants, the modes of transport, or the relocation of warehouses. Traditionally, a single centralized model that encompasses multiple participants in the supply chain is built when optimization of the supply chain through simulation is required. However, ...

  11. Research on Knowledge-Oriented Supply ChainRisk Management System Model

    OpenAIRE

    Yingchun Guo

    2011-01-01

    Based on analyzing the characteristics of supply chain risk management under the influences of knowledge, in this paper integrates basic theories and methods of knowledge management into the process of risk management, builds a knowledge-oriented supply chain risk management system model, and proposes relevant strategies, presenting references for practical application of knowledge-oriented supply chain risk management. By means of acquiring, storing, sharing, and transferring supply chain ri...

  12. Modelling the water energy nexus: should variability in water supply impact on decision making for future energy supply options?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. D. S. Cullis

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Many countries, like South Africa, Australia, India, China and the United States, are highly dependent on coal fired power stations for energy generation. These power stations require significant amounts of water, particularly when fitted with technology to reduce pollution and climate change impacts. As water resources come under stress it is important that spatial variability in water availability is taken into consideration for future energy planning particularly with regards to motivating for a switch from coal fired power stations to renewable technologies. This is particularly true in developing countries where there is a need for increased power production and associated increasing water demands for energy. Typically future energy supply options are modelled using a least cost optimization model such as TIMES that considers water supply as an input cost, but is generally constant for all technologies. Different energy technologies are located in different regions of the country with different levels of water availability and associated infrastructure development and supply costs. In this study we develop marginal cost curves for future water supply options in different regions of a country where different energy technologies are planned for development. These water supply cost curves are then used in an expanded version of the South Africa TIMES model called SATIM-W that explicitly models the water-energy nexus by taking into account the regional nature of water supply availability associated with different energy supply technologies. The results show a significant difference in the optimal future energy mix and in particular an increase in renewables and a demand for dry-cooling technologies that would not have been the case if the regional variability of water availability had not been taken into account. Choices in energy policy, such as the introduction of a carbon tax, will also significantly impact on future water resources, placing

  13. Modelling the water energy nexus: should variability in water supply impact on decision making for future energy supply options?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cullis, James D. S.; Walker, Nicholas J.; Ahjum, Fadiel; Juan Rodriguez, Diego

    2018-02-01

    Many countries, like South Africa, Australia, India, China and the United States, are highly dependent on coal fired power stations for energy generation. These power stations require significant amounts of water, particularly when fitted with technology to reduce pollution and climate change impacts. As water resources come under stress it is important that spatial variability in water availability is taken into consideration for future energy planning particularly with regards to motivating for a switch from coal fired power stations to renewable technologies. This is particularly true in developing countries where there is a need for increased power production and associated increasing water demands for energy. Typically future energy supply options are modelled using a least cost optimization model such as TIMES that considers water supply as an input cost, but is generally constant for all technologies. Different energy technologies are located in different regions of the country with different levels of water availability and associated infrastructure development and supply costs. In this study we develop marginal cost curves for future water supply options in different regions of a country where different energy technologies are planned for development. These water supply cost curves are then used in an expanded version of the South Africa TIMES model called SATIM-W that explicitly models the water-energy nexus by taking into account the regional nature of water supply availability associated with different energy supply technologies. The results show a significant difference in the optimal future energy mix and in particular an increase in renewables and a demand for dry-cooling technologies that would not have been the case if the regional variability of water availability had not been taken into account. Choices in energy policy, such as the introduction of a carbon tax, will also significantly impact on future water resources, placing additional water

  14. Artificial neural network for modeling the extraction of aromatic hydrocarbons from lube oil cuts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mehrkesh, A.H.; Hajimirzaee, S. [Islamic Azad University, Majlesi Branch, Isfahan (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Hatamipour, M.S.; Tavakoli, T. [Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Isfahan, Isfahan (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2011-03-15

    An artificial neural network (ANN) approach was used to obtain a simulation model to predict the rotating disc contactor (RDC) performance during the extraction of aromatic hydrocarbons from lube oil cuts, to produce a lubricating base oil using furfural as solvent. The field data used for training the ANN model was obtained from a lubricating oil production company. The input parameters of the ANN model were the volumetric flow rates of feed and solvent, the temperatures of feed and solvent, and the disc rotation rate. The output parameters were the volumetric flow rate of the raffinate phase and the extraction yield. In this study, a feed-forward multi-layer perceptron neural network was successfully used to demonstrate the complex relationship between the mentioned input and output parameters. (Copyright copyright 2011 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH and Co. KGaA, Weinheim)

  15. Aromatic hydrocarbons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roder, M.

    1985-01-01

    Papers dealing with radiolysis of aromatic hydrocarbons of different composition (from benzene to terphenyls and hydrocarbons with condensed rings) as well as their mixtures (with alkanes, alkenes, other aromatic hydrocarbons) are reviewed. High radiation stability of aromatic hydrocarbons in condensed phases associated with peculiarities of molecular structure of compounds is underlined. Mechanisms of radiolytic processes, vaues of product yields are considered

  16. Simulation modeling of domestic and international intermodal supply paths.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-07-01

    supply of material to a manufacturing facility obviously has a major impact on enterprise : performance, whether measured in terms of cost, timeliness, quality, etc. Most material that is : input to a manufacturing process is transported to the manuf...

  17. To develop an integrated model for green supply chain | Tajabadi ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Supply chain management is a set of techniques used for effective and efficient integration of suppliers, manufacturers, warehouses and dealers in such a ... Since the important role of three factors of localization, routing and assignment is not ...

  18. A Model of U.S. Army Recruit Labor Supply

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Wargelin, Mark

    1997-01-01

    .... This paper reviews previous military manpower research and critically examines two recruit labor supply experiments the Multiple Option Recruiting Experiment of 1979, and the Educational Assistance Test Program of 1981...

  19. A new HYSYS model for underground gasification of hydrocarbons under hydrothermal conditions

    KAUST Repository

    Alshammari, Y.M.

    2014-08-01

    A new subsurface process model was developed using the ASPEN HYSYS simulation environment to analyse the process energy and gasification efficiency at steady-state equilibrium conditions. Injection and production wells were simulated using the HYSYS pipe flow utilities which makes use of the Beggs and Brill flow correlation applicable for vertical pipes. The downhole reservoir hydrothermal reactions were assumed to be in equilibrium, and hence, the Gibbs reactor was used. It was found that high W/C ratios and low O/C ratios are required to maximise gasification efficiency at a constant hydrocarbon feed flowrate, while the opposite is true for the energy efficiency. This occurs due to the dependence of process energy efficiency on the gas pressure and temperature at surface, while the gasification efficiency depends on the gas composition which is determined by the reservoir reaction conditions which affects production distribution. Another effect of paramount importance is the increase in reservoir production rate which was found to directly enhance both energy and gasification efficiency showing conditions where the both efficiencies are theoretically maximised. Results open new routes for techno-economic assessment of commercial implementation of underground gasification of hydrocarbons. © 2014, Hydrogen Energy Publications, LLC. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Removal of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in soil spiked with model mixtures of petroleum hydrocarbons and heterocycles using biosurfactants from Rhodococcus ruber IEGM 231.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivshina, Irina; Kostina, Ludmila; Krivoruchko, Anastasiya; Kuyukina, Maria; Peshkur, Tatyana; Anderson, Peter; Cunningham, Colin

    2016-07-15

    Removal of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in soil using biosurfactants (BS) produced by Rhodococcus ruber IEGM 231 was studied in soil columns spiked with model mixtures of major petroleum constituents. A crystalline mixture of single PAHs (0.63g/kg), a crystalline mixture of PAHs (0.63g/kg) and polycyclic aromatic sulfur heterocycles (PASHs), and an artificially synthesized non-aqueous phase liquid (NAPL) containing PAHs (3.00g/kg) dissolved in alkanes C10-C19 were used for spiking. Percentage of PAH removal with BS varied from 16 to 69%. Washing activities of BS were 2.5 times greater than those of synthetic surfactant Tween 60 in NAPL-spiked soil and similar to Tween 60 in crystalline-spiked soil. At the same time, amounts of removed PAHs were equal and consisted of 0.3-0.5g/kg dry soil regardless the chemical pattern of a model mixture of petroleum hydrocarbons and heterocycles used for spiking. UV spectra for soil before and after BS treatment were obtained and their applicability for differentiated analysis of PAH and PASH concentration changes in remediated soil was shown. The ratios A254nm/A288nm revealed that BS increased biotreatability of PAH-contaminated soils. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. S/O modeling technique for optimal containment of light hydrocarbons in contaminated unconfined aquifers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cooper, G.S. Jr.; Kaluarachchi, J.J.; Peralta, R.C.

    1993-01-01

    An innovative approach is presented to minimize pumping for immobilizing a floating plume of a light non-aqueous phase liquid (LNAPL). The best pumping strategy is determined to contain the free oil product and provide for gradient control of the water table. This approach combined detailed simulation, statistical analysis, and optimization. This modeling technique uses regression equations that describe system response to variable pumping stimuli. The regression equations were developed from analysis of systematically performed simulations of multiphase flow in an areal region of an unconfined aquifer. Simulations were performed using ARMOS, a finite element model. ARMOS can be used to simulate a spill, leakage from subsurface storage facilities and recovery of hydrocarbons from trenches or pumping wells to design remediation schemes

  2. Feedstock Supply System Design and Economics for Conversion of Lignocellulosic Biomass to Hydrocarbon Fuels Conversion Pathway: Fast Pyrolysis and Hydrotreating Bio-Oil Pathway "The 2017 Design Case"

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kevin L. Kenney; Kara G. Cafferty; Jacob J. Jacobson; Ian J. Bonner; Garold L. Gresham; J. Richard Hess; William A. Smith; David N. Thompson; Vicki S. Thompson; Jaya Shankar Tumuluru; Neal Yancey

    2014-01-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy promotes the production of liquid fuels from lignocellulosic biomass feedstocks by funding fundamental and applied research that advances the state of technology in biomass sustainable supply, logistics, conversion, and overall system sustainability. As part of its involvement in this program, Idaho National Laboratory (INL) investigates the feedstock logistics economics and sustainability of these fuels. Between 2000 and 2012, INL quantified and the economics and sustainability of moving biomass from the field or stand to the throat of the conversion process using conventional equipment and processes. All previous work to 2012 was designed to improve the efficiency and decrease costs under conventional supply systems. The 2012 programmatic target was to demonstrate a biomass logistics cost of $55/dry Ton for woody biomass delivered to fast pyrolysis conversion facility. The goal was achieved by applying field and process demonstration unit-scale data from harvest, collection, storage, preprocessing, handling, and transportation operations into INL’s biomass logistics model.

  3. The research on optimization of auto supply chain network robust model under macroeconomic fluctuations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guo, Chunxiang; Liu, Xiaoli; Jin, Maozhu; Lv, Zhihan

    2016-01-01

    Considering the uncertainty of the macroeconomic environment, the robust optimization method is studied for constructing and designing the automotive supply chain network, and based on the definition of robust solution a robust optimization model is built for integrated supply chain network design that consists of supplier selection problem and facility location–distribution problem. The tabu search algorithm is proposed for supply chain node configuration, analyzing the influence of the level of uncertainty on robust results, and by comparing the performance of supply chain network design through the stochastic programming model and robustness optimize model, on this basis, determining the rational layout of supply chain network under macroeconomic fluctuations. At last the contrastive test result validates that the performance of tabu search algorithm is outstanding on convergence and computational time. Meanwhile it is indicated that the robust optimization model can reduce investment risks effectively when it is applied to supply chain network design.

  4. A Review of the Wood Pellet Value Chain, Modern Value/Supply Chain Management Approaches, and Value/Supply Chain Models

    OpenAIRE

    Hughes, Natalie M.; Shahi, Chander; Pulkki, Reino

    2014-01-01

    We reviewed 153 peer-reviewed sources to provide identification of modern supply chain management techniques and exploration of supply chain modeling, to offer decision support to managers. Ultimately, the review is intended to assist member-companies of supply chains, mainly producers, improve their current management approaches, by directing them to studies that may be suitable for direct application to their supply chains and value chains for improved efficiency and profitability. We found...

  5. Optimization and Simulation Modeling of Disaster Relief Supply Chain: A Literature Review

    OpenAIRE

    Feng, Keli; Bizimana, Emmanuel; Agu, Deedee D.; Issac, Tana T.

    2012-01-01

    Recent natural and man-made disasters underscore the need of a resilient and agile disaster relief supply chain to mitigate the damages and save people’s lives. Optimization and simulation modeling have become powerful and useful tools to help decision makers tackle problems related to disaster relief supply chain. This paper reviews optimization and simulation models used in the field of disaster relief supply chain. We review the literature of the facility location optimization problems of ...

  6. The Timber Resource Inventory Model (TRIM): a projection model for timber supply and policy analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    P.L. Tedder; R.N. La Mont; J.C. Kincaid

    1987-01-01

    TRIM (Timber Resource Inventory Model) is a yield table projection system developed for timber supply projections and policy analysis. TRIM simulates timber growth, inventories, management and area changes, and removals over the projection period. Programs in the TRIM system, card-by-card descriptions of required inputs, table formats, and sample results are presented...

  7. An IT-enabled supply chain model: a simulation study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cannella, Salvatore; Framinan, Jose M.; Barbosa-Póvoa, Ana

    2014-11-01

    During the last decades, supply chain collaboration practices and the underlying enabling technologies have evolved from the classical electronic data interchange (EDI) approach to a web-based and radio frequency identification (RFID)-enabled collaboration. In this field, most of the literature has focused on the study of optimal parameters for reducing the total cost of suppliers, by adopting operational research (OR) techniques. Herein we are interested in showing that the considered information technology (IT)-enabled structure is resilient, that is, it works well across a reasonably broad range of parameter settings. By adopting a methodological approach based on system dynamics, we study a multi-tier collaborative supply chain. Results show that the IT-enabled supply chain improves operational performance and customer service level. Nonetheless, benefits for geographically dispersed networks are of minor entity.

  8. Modeling Integrated Water-User Decisions with Intermittent Supplies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lund, J. R.; Rosenberg, D.

    2006-12-01

    We present an economic-engineering method to estimate urban water use demands with intermittent water supplies. A two-stage, probabilistic optimization formulation includes a wide variety of water supply enhancement and conservation actions that individual households can adopt to meet multiple water quality uses with uncertain water availability. We embed the optimization in Monte-Carlo simulations to show aggregate effects at a utility (citywide) scale for a population of user conditions and decisions. Parametric analysis provides derivations of supply curves to subsidize conservation, demand responses to alternative pricing, and customer willingness-to-pay to avoid shortages. Results show a good empirical fit for the average and distribution of billed residential water use in Amman, Jordan. Additional outputs give likely market penetration rates for household conservation actions, associated water savings, and subsidies required to entice further adoption. We discuss new insights to size, target, market, and finance conservation programs and interpret a demand curve with block pricing.

  9. The Knowledge Supply Model: A Framework for Developing Education and Training in the New Economy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burton-Jones, Alan

    2001-01-01

    The knowledge supply model depicts the dynamics of change and patterns of knowledge supply and demand in economic sectors. Its elements are knowledge characteristics, organizational specificity of knowlwege, value of knowledge, and level of suppliers' knowledge. Learning organizations can use the model to tailor products and servers to knowledge…

  10. Assessing the polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) pollution of urban stormwater runoff: a dynamic modeling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Yi; Lin, Zhongrong; Li, Hao; Ge, Yan; Zhang, Wei; Ye, Youbin; Wang, Xuejun

    2014-05-15

    Urban stormwater runoff delivers a significant amount of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), mostly of atmospheric origin, to receiving water bodies. The PAH pollution of urban stormwater runoff poses serious risk to aquatic life and human health, but has been overlooked by environmental modeling and management. This study proposed a dynamic modeling approach for assessing the PAH pollution and its associated environmental risk. A variable time-step model was developed to simulate the continuous cycles of pollutant buildup and washoff. To reflect the complex interaction among different environmental media (i.e. atmosphere, dust and stormwater), the dependence of the pollution level on antecedent weather conditions was investigated and embodied in the model. Long-term simulations of the model can be efficiently performed, and probabilistic features of the pollution level and its risk can be easily determined. The applicability of this approach and its value to environmental management was demonstrated by a case study in Beijing, China. The results showed that Beijing's PAH pollution of road runoff is relatively severe, and its associated risk exhibits notable seasonal variation. The current sweeping practice is effective in mitigating the pollution, but the effectiveness is both weather-dependent and compound-dependent. The proposed modeling approach can help identify critical timing and major pollutants for monitoring, assessing and controlling efforts to be focused on. The approach is extendable to other urban areas, as well as to other contaminants with similar fate and transport as PAHs. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Improved predictive model for n-decane kinetics across species, as a component of hydrocarbon mixtures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merrill, E A; Gearhart, J M; Sterner, T R; Robinson, P J

    2008-07-01

    n-Decane is considered a major component of various fuels and industrial solvents. These hydrocarbon products are complex mixtures of hundreds of components, including straight-chain alkanes, branched chain alkanes, cycloalkanes, diaromatics, and naphthalenes. Human exposures to the jet fuel, JP-8, or to industrial solvents in vapor, aerosol, and liquid forms all have the potential to produce health effects, including immune suppression and/or neurological deficits. A physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model has previously been developed for n-decane, in which partition coefficients (PC), fitted to 4-h exposure kinetic data, were used in preference to measured values. The greatest discrepancy between fitted and measured values was for fat, where PC values were changed from 250-328 (measured) to 25 (fitted). Such a large change in a critical parameter, without any physiological basis, greatly impedes the model's extrapolative abilities, as well as its applicability for assessing the interactions of n-decane or similar alkanes with other compounds in a mixture model. Due to these limitations, the model was revised. Our approach emphasized the use of experimentally determined PCs because many tissues had not approached steady-state concentrations by the end of the 4-h exposures. Diffusion limitation was used to describe n-decane kinetics for the brain, perirenal fat, skin, and liver. Flow limitation was used to describe the remaining rapidly and slowly perfused tissues. As expected from the high lipophilicity of this semivolatile compound (log K(ow) = 5.25), sensitivity analyses showed that parameters describing fat uptake were next to blood:air partitioning and pulmonary ventilation as critical in determining overall systemic circulation and uptake in other tissues. In our revised model, partitioning into fat took multiple days to reach steady state, which differed considerably from the previous model that assumed steady-state conditions in fat at 4 h post

  12. Impact of Supply Chain Alignment on Construction Performance: A developed model for Vietnam

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huy Troung Quang

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available There are many articles mentioning the advantages and benefits of supply chain alignment none, however, describe how to model such alignment in the supply chain. This paper offers a framework for examining and understanding the impact supply chain alignment has on performance. Based on supply chain mapping approach, a model describing alignment between processes/ flows in the supply chain network is developed. The model is then validated using a dataset of 316 enterprises operating in the Vietnam construction sector. Evidence indicates that the supply chain processes and flows were aligned. According to the results, the proposed supply chain alignment model is able to explain a 59.9% variance in operational performance, 58.9% in customer satisfaction, 34.5% in operating costs and 67.4% in business performance. To successfully align the supply chain network, companies can use the proposed model as a “road-map” to reduce high costs, to avoid the loss of control, management difficulties and/or vulnerability to opportunistic action, all of which may hinder efforts to align the supply chains.

  13. A Data Mining Approach to Modelling of Water Supply Assets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Babovic, V.; Drecourt, J.; Keijzer, M.

    2002-01-01

    supply assets are mainly situated underground, and therefore not visible and under the influence of various highly unpredictable forces. This paper proposes the use of advanced data mining methods in order to determine the risks of pipe bursts. For example, analysis of the database of already occurred...

  14. A formal modeling approach for supply chain event management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Liu, R.; Kumar, Akhil; Aalst, van der W.M.P.

    2007-01-01

    As supply chains become more dynamic, there is a need for a sense-and-respond capability to react to events in a real-time manner. In this paper, we propose Petri nets extended with time and color (to represent case data) as a formalism for managing events. We designed seven basic patterns to

  15. A control model for object virtualization in supply chain management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verdouw, C.N.; Beulens, A.J.M.; Reijers, H.A.; van der Vorst, J.G.A.J.

    2015-01-01

    Due to the emergence of the Internet of Things, supply chain control can increasingly be based on virtual objects instead of on the direct observation of physical objects. Object virtualization allows the decoupling of control activities from the handling and observing of physical products and

  16. Business model innovation in electricity supply markets: The role of complex value in the United Kingdom

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hall, Stephen; Roelich, Katy

    2016-01-01

    This research investigates the new opportunities that business model innovations are creating in electricity supply markets at the sub-national scale. These local supply business models can offer significant benefits to the electricity system, but also generate economic, social, and environmental values that are not well accounted for in current policy or regulation. This paper uses the UK electricity supply market to investigate new business models which rely on more complex value propositions than the incumbent utility model. Nine archetypal local supply business models are identified and their value propositions, value capture methods, and barriers to market entry are analysed. This analysis defines 'complex value' as a key concept in understanding business model innovation in the energy sector. The process of complex value identification poses a challenge to energy researchers, commercial firms and policymakers in liberalised markets; to investigate the opportunities for system efficiency and diverse outcomes that new supplier business models can offer to the electricity system. - Highlights: •Business models of energy supply markets shape energy transitions. •The British system misses four opportunities of local electricity supply. •Nine new business model archetypes of local supply are analysed. •New electricity business models have complex value propositions. •A process for policy response to business model innovation is presented.

  17. Effect of concentration gradients on biodegradation in bench-scale sand columns with HYDRUS modeling of hydrocarbon transport and degradation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horel, Agota; Schiewer, Silke; Misra, Debasmita

    2015-09-01

    The present research investigated to what extent results obtained in small microcosm experiments can be extrapolated to larger settings with non-uniform concentrations. Microbial hydrocarbon degradation in sandy sediments was compared for column experiments versus homogenized microcosms with varying concentrations of diesel, Syntroleum, and fish biodiesel as contaminants. Syntroleum and fish biodiesel had higher degradation rates than diesel fuel. Microcosms showed significantly higher overall hydrocarbon mineralization percentages (p transport and degradation of the investigated fuels in vadose zone conditions similar to those in laboratory column experiments. The numerical model was used to evaluate the impact of different degradation rate constants from microcosm versus column experiments.

  18. A Model-Based Analysis of Chemical and Temporal Patterns of Cuticular Hydrocarbons in Male Drosophila melanogaster

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kent, Clement; Azanchi, Reza; Smith, Ben; Chu, Adrienne; Levine, Joel

    2007-01-01

    Drosophila Cuticular Hydrocarbons (CH) influence courtship behaviour, mating, aggregation, oviposition, and resistance to desiccation. We measured levels of 24 different CH compounds of individual male D. melanogaster hourly under a variety of environmental (LD/DD) conditions. Using a model-based analysis of CH variation, we developed an improved normalization method for CH data, and show that CH compounds have reproducible cyclic within-day temporal patterns of expression which differ between LD and DD conditions. Multivariate clustering of expression patterns identified 5 clusters of co-expressed compounds with common chemical characteristics. Turnover rate estimates suggest CH production may be a significant metabolic cost. Male cuticular hydrocarbon expression is a dynamic trait influenced by light and time of day; since abundant hydrocarbons affect male sexual behavior, males may present different pheromonal profiles at different times and under different conditions. PMID:17896002

  19. A model-based analysis of chemical and temporal patterns of cuticular hydrocarbons in male Drosophila melanogaster.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clement Kent

    Full Text Available Drosophila Cuticular Hydrocarbons (CH influence courtship behaviour, mating, aggregation, oviposition, and resistance to desiccation. We measured levels of 24 different CH compounds of individual male D. melanogaster hourly under a variety of environmental (LD/DD conditions. Using a model-based analysis of CH variation, we developed an improved normalization method for CH data, and show that CH compounds have reproducible cyclic within-day temporal patterns of expression which differ between LD and DD conditions. Multivariate clustering of expression patterns identified 5 clusters of co-expressed compounds with common chemical characteristics. Turnover rate estimates suggest CH production may be a significant metabolic cost. Male cuticular hydrocarbon expression is a dynamic trait influenced by light and time of day; since abundant hydrocarbons affect male sexual behavior, males may present different pheromonal profiles at different times and under different conditions.

  20. Improved bioavailability and biodegradation of a model polyaromatic hydrocarbon by a biosurfactant producing bacterium of marine origin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Palashpriya; Mukherjee, Soumen; Sen, Ramkrishna

    2008-07-01

    Polyaromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are organic pollutants mostly derived from the processing and combustion of fossil fuels and cause human health hazards. In the present study a marine biosurfactant producing strain of Bacillus circulans was used to increase the bioavailability and consequent degradation of a model polyaromatic hydrocarbon, anthracene. Although the organism could not utilize anthracene as the sole carbon source, it showed better growth and biosurfactant production in an anthracene supplemented glycerol mineral salts medium (AGlyMSM) compared to a normal glycerol mineral salts medium (GlyMSM). The biosurfactant product showed high degree of emulsification of various hydrocarbons. Analysis by gas chromatography (GC), high performance thin layer chromatography (HPTLC) and Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) showed that the biosurfactant could effectively entrap and solubilize PAH. Thin layer chromatographic analysis showed that anthracene was utilized as a carbon substrate for the production of biosurfactant. Thus organic pollutant anthracene was metabolized and converted to biosurfactants facilitating its own bioremediation.

  1. A robust optimization model for agile and build-to-order supply chain planning under uncertainties

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lalmazloumian, Morteza; Wong, Kuan Yew; Govindan, Kannan

    2016-01-01

    Supply chain planning as one of the most important processes within the supply chain management concept, has a great impact on firms' success or failure. This paper considers a supply chain planning problem of an agile manufacturing company operating in a build-to-order environment under various....... The formulation is a robust optimization model with the objective of minimizing the expected total supply chain cost while maintaining customer service level. The developed multi-product, multi-period, multi-echelon robust mixed-integer linear programming model is then solved using the CPLEX optimization studio...

  2. Evaluating officially reported polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon emissions in the Athabasca oil sands region with a multimedia fate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parajulee, Abha; Wania, Frank

    2014-01-01

    Emissions of organic substances with potential toxicity to humans and the environment are a major concern surrounding the rapid industrial development in the Athabasca oil sands region (AOSR). Although concentrations of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in some environmental samples have been reported, a comprehensive picture of organic contaminant sources, pathways, and sinks within the AOSR has yet to be elucidated. We sought to use a dynamic multimedia environmental fate model to reconcile the emissions and residue levels reported for three representative PAHs in the AOSR. Data describing emissions to air compiled from two official sources result in simulated concentrations in air, soil, water, and foliage that tend to fall close to or below the minimum measured concentrations of phenanthrene, pyrene, and benzo(a)pyrene in the environment. Accounting for evaporative emissions (e.g., from tailings pond disposal) provides a more realistic representation of PAH distribution in the AOSR. Such indirect emissions to air were found to be a greater contributor of PAHs to the AOSR atmosphere relative to reported direct emissions to air. The indirect pathway transporting uncontrolled releases of PAHs to aquatic systems via the atmosphere may be as significant a contributor of PAHs to aquatic systems as other supply pathways. Emission density estimates for the three PAHs that account for tailings pond disposal are much closer to estimated global averages than estimates based on the available emissions datasets, which fall close to the global minima. Our results highlight the need for improved accounting of PAH emissions from oil sands operations, especially in light of continued expansion of these operations. PMID:24596429

  3. Modeling unburned hydrocarbon formation due to absorption/desorption processes into the wall oil film

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shih, L.K.; Assanis, D.N.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reports that as a result of continuing air pollution problems, very stringent regulations are being enforced to control emissions of unburned hydrocarbons (HC) from premixed-charge, spark-ignition engines. A number of attempts have been reported on modeling sources of HC emissions using various analytical tools. Over the past decade, the development of multi-dimensional reacting flow codes has advanced considerably. Perhaps the most widely used multi-dimensional engine simulation code is KIVA-II, which was developed at Lost Alamos National Laboratory. The ability to deal with moving boundary conditions caused by the piston movement is built in this code. This code also includes models for turbulent fluid flow, turbulent interaction between spray drops and gas, heat transfer, chemical reaction, and fuel spray. A standard k-ε turbulence model is used for gas flow. The fuel spray model is based on the stochastic particle technique, and includes sub-models for droplet injection, breakup, collision and coalescence, and evaporation

  4. Optimization of operating conditions in oxidation of dibenzothiophene in the light hydrocarbon model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akbari Azam

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In this research, the effects of process variables on the efficiency and mechanism of dibenzothiophene oxidation in formicacid/H2O2 system for deep desulfurization of a light hydrocarbon model were systematically studied by statistical modelling and optimization using response surface methodology and implementing the central composite design. A quadratic regression model was developed to predict the yield of sulfur oxidation as the model response. The model indicated that temperature was the most significant effective factor and suggested an important interaction between temperature and H2O2/sulfur ratio; at temperatures above 56°C, more excess oxidant was necessary because of instability of active peroxo intermediates and loss of H2O2 due to thermal decomposition. In contrast, the water hindrance effect of H2O2 aqueous solution in desulfurization progress was more significant at temperatures bellow 56°C. In the optimization process, minimizing H2O2/sulfur ratio and catalyst consumption for maximum yield of desulfurization was economically considerable. The optimal condition was obtained at temperature of 57 °C, H2O2/sulfur ratio of 2.5 mol/mol and catalyst dosage of 0.82 mL in 50 mL solution of DBT in n-hexane leading to a maximum oxidation yield of 95% after 1 hour reaction. Good agreement between predicted and experimental results (less than 4% error was found.

  5. Model studies for evaluating the acute neurobehavioral effects of complex hydrocarbon solvents. I. Validation of methods with ethanol

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    McKee, R.H.; Lammers, J.H.C.M.; Hoogendijk, E.M.G.; Emmen, H.H.; Muijser, H.; Barsotti, D.A.; Owen, D.E.; Kulig, B.M.

    2006-01-01

    As a preliminary step to evaluating the acute neurobehavioral effects of hydrocarbon solvents and to establish a working model for extrapolating animal test data to humans, joint neurobehavioral/toxicokinetic studies were conducted which involved administering ethanol to rats and volunteers. The

  6. A Review of the Wood Pellet Value Chain, Modern Value/Supply Chain Management Approaches, and Value/Supply Chain Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalie M. Hughes

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We reviewed 153 peer-reviewed sources to provide identification of modern supply chain management techniques and exploration of supply chain modeling, to offer decision support to managers. Ultimately, the review is intended to assist member-companies of supply chains, mainly producers, improve their current management approaches, by directing them to studies that may be suitable for direct application to their supply chains and value chains for improved efficiency and profitability. We found that information on supply chain management and modeling techniques in general is available. However, few Canadian-based published studies exist regarding a demand-driven modeling approach to value/supply chain management for wood pellet production. Only three papers were found specifically on wood pellet value chain analysis. We propose that more studies should be carried out on the value chain of wood pellet manufacturing, as well as demand-driven management and modeling approaches with improved demand forecasting methods.

  7. A collaborative scheduling model for the supply-hub with multiple suppliers and multiple manufacturers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Guo; Lv, Fei; Guan, Xu

    2014-01-01

    This paper investigates a collaborative scheduling model in the assembly system, wherein multiple suppliers have to deliver their components to the multiple manufacturers under the operation of Supply-Hub. We first develop two different scenarios to examine the impact of Supply-Hub. One is that suppliers and manufacturers make their decisions separately, and the other is that the Supply-Hub makes joint decisions with collaborative scheduling. The results show that our scheduling model with the Supply-Hub is a NP-complete problem, therefore, we propose an auto-adapted differential evolution algorithm to solve this problem. Moreover, we illustrate that the performance of collaborative scheduling by the Supply-Hub is superior to separate decision made by each manufacturer and supplier. Furthermore, we also show that the algorithm proposed has good convergence and reliability, which can be applicable to more complicated supply chain environment.

  8. A Collaborative Scheduling Model for the Supply-Hub with Multiple Suppliers and Multiple Manufacturers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guo Li

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates a collaborative scheduling model in the assembly system, wherein multiple suppliers have to deliver their components to the multiple manufacturers under the operation of Supply-Hub. We first develop two different scenarios to examine the impact of Supply-Hub. One is that suppliers and manufacturers make their decisions separately, and the other is that the Supply-Hub makes joint decisions with collaborative scheduling. The results show that our scheduling model with the Supply-Hub is a NP-complete problem, therefore, we propose an auto-adapted differential evolution algorithm to solve this problem. Moreover, we illustrate that the performance of collaborative scheduling by the Supply-Hub is superior to separate decision made by each manufacturer and supplier. Furthermore, we also show that the algorithm proposed has good convergence and reliability, which can be applicable to more complicated supply chain environment.

  9. A Collaborative Scheduling Model for the Supply-Hub with Multiple Suppliers and Multiple Manufacturers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lv, Fei; Guan, Xu

    2014-01-01

    This paper investigates a collaborative scheduling model in the assembly system, wherein multiple suppliers have to deliver their components to the multiple manufacturers under the operation of Supply-Hub. We first develop two different scenarios to examine the impact of Supply-Hub. One is that suppliers and manufacturers make their decisions separately, and the other is that the Supply-Hub makes joint decisions with collaborative scheduling. The results show that our scheduling model with the Supply-Hub is a NP-complete problem, therefore, we propose an auto-adapted differential evolution algorithm to solve this problem. Moreover, we illustrate that the performance of collaborative scheduling by the Supply-Hub is superior to separate decision made by each manufacturer and supplier. Furthermore, we also show that the algorithm proposed has good convergence and reliability, which can be applicable to more complicated supply chain environment. PMID:24892104

  10. Business process modelling in demand-driven agri-food supply chains : a reference framework

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verdouw, C.N.

    2010-01-01

    Keywords: Business process models; Supply chain management; Information systems; Reference information models; Market orientation; Mass customisation; Configuration; Coordination; Control; SCOR; Pot plants; Fruit industry

    Abstract

    The increasing volatility and diversity of

  11. Risk of the Maritime Supply Chain System Based on Interpretative Structural Model

    OpenAIRE

    Jiang He; Xiong Wei; Cao Yonghui

    2017-01-01

    Marine transportation is the most important transport mode of in the international trade, but the maritime supply chain is facing with many risks. At present, most of the researches on the risk of the maritime supply chain focus on the risk identification and risk management, and barely carry on the quantitative analysis of the logical structure of each influencing factor. This paper uses the interpretative structure model to analysis the maritime supply chain risk system. On the basis of com...

  12. Designing Leadership models in a Three Level Unlimited Supply Chain: Non-Cooperative Game Theory Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Ahmad Jaafarnehad; Ali Mohaghar; Mohammad Modarres Yazdi; Hannan Amoozad Mahdiraji

    2015-01-01

    The role and importance of supply chain management, has faced with many challenges and problems. Although a comprehensive model of supply chain issues, has not been explained, we have to indicate that issues such as reviewing the theoretical foundations of information systems, marketing, financial management, logistical and organizational relations have been considered by many researchers. The objective of supply chain management is to improve various activities and components to increase ove...

  13. Establishment of Grain Farmers' Supply Response Model and Empirical Analysis under Minimum Grain Purchase Price Policy

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, Shuang

    2012-01-01

    Based on farmers' supply behavior theory and price expectations theory, this paper establishes grain farmers' supply response model of two major grain varieties (early indica rice and mixed wheat) in the major producing areas, to test whether the minimum grain purchase price policy can have price-oriented effect on grain production and supply in the major producing areas. Empirical analysis shows that the minimum purchase price published annually by the government has significant positive imp...

  14. DESIGNING A SUPPLY CHAIN MODEL WITH CONSIDERATION DEMAND FORECASTING AND INFORMATION SHARING

    OpenAIRE

    S.M.T. Fatemi Ghomi; N. Azad

    2012-01-01

    ENGLISH ABSTRACT: In traditional supply chain inventory management, orders are the only information firms exchange, but information technology now allows firms to share demand and inventory data quickly and inexpensively. To have an integrated plan, a manufacturer not only needs to know demand information from its customers but also supply information from its suppliers. In this paper, information flow is incorporated in a three-echelon supply chain model. Also to decrease the risk o...

  15. Degradation of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons : model simulation for bioavailability and biodegradation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Owabor, C.N.; Ogbeide, S.E. [Benin Univ. (Nigeria). Dept. of Chemical Engineering; Susu, A.A. [Lagos Univ. (Nigeria). Dept. of Chemical Engineering

    2010-04-15

    Research has indicated that the biodegradation of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) is influenced by the molecular size of the PAHs as well as by soil properties. This study presented a model for a 1-D convective-dispersive solute transport in a soil matrix. The model was designed to consider the gas-liquid interface film and the biofilm between the liquid and solid interface as well as to account for interparticle; intraparticle, and interphase mass transport. A soil microcosm reactor was used to evaluate substrate bioavailability and biodegradation in a contaminated aqueous solids system. The numerical model involved the discretization of depth, radial distance, and time into mesh or grid points with constant intervals. Dimensionless variables were defined using a backward finite difference (BFD) method. Results of the study suggested that PAH occlusion occurred in the micropores of the soil particle. The non-steady state model adequately predicted the concentration profiles of PAHs within the soil matrix. 26 refs., 5 tabs., 7 figs.

  16. Parsing pyrogenic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons: forensic chemistry, receptor models, and source control policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Reilly, Kirk T; Pietari, Jaana; Boehm, Paul D

    2014-04-01

    A realistic understanding of contaminant sources is required to set appropriate control policy. Forensic chemical methods can be powerful tools in source characterization and identification, but they require a multiple-lines-of-evidence approach. Atmospheric receptor models, such as the US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA)'s chemical mass balance (CMB), are increasingly being used to evaluate sources of pyrogenic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in sediments. This paper describes the assumptions underlying receptor models and discusses challenges in complying with these assumptions in practice. Given the variability within, and the similarity among, pyrogenic PAH source types, model outputs are sensitive to specific inputs, and parsing among some source types may not be possible. Although still useful for identifying potential sources, the technical specialist applying these methods must describe both the results and their inherent uncertainties in a way that is understandable to nontechnical policy makers. The authors present an example case study concerning an investigation of a class of parking-lot sealers as a significant source of PAHs in urban sediment. Principal component analysis is used to evaluate published CMB model inputs and outputs. Targeted analyses of 2 areas where bans have been implemented are included. The results do not support the claim that parking-lot sealers are a significant source of PAHs in urban sediments. © 2013 SETAC.

  17. A Time Efficient Supply Chain Model for an Apparel Company

    OpenAIRE

    Gustafson, Annika; Ng, Sze Lit (Philip); von Schmiesing-Korff, Alice

    2005-01-01

    In most market places today competition has become stronger, not only between single companies but between networks of linked partners, known as supply chains. Consumer demands are changing more often and companies have to react quickly when new trends and consumer requirements appear, thus the competition becomes more time-sensitive. This is especially true in the apparel fashion industry because time is a crucial factor and can make the difference between the success or failure of a company...

  18. Control of enterprise interfaces for supply chain enterprise modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Interrante, L.D. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Macfarlane, J.F. [Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States). Information and Computing Sciences Div.

    1995-04-01

    There is a current trend for manufacturing enterprises in a supply chain of a particular industry to join forces in an attempt to promote efficiencies and improve competitive position. Such alliances occur in the context of specific legal and business agreements such that each enterprise retains a majority of its business and manufacturing information as private and shares other information with its trading partners. Shared information may include enterprise demand projections, capacities, finished goods inventories, and aggregate production schedules. Evidence of the trend toward information sharing includes the recent emphases on vendor-managed inventories, quick response, and Electronic Data Interchange (EDI) standards. The increased competition brought on by the global marketplace is driving industries to consider the advantages of trading partner agreements. Aggregate-level forecasts, supply-chain production smoothing, and aggregate-level inventory policies can reduce holding costs, record-keeping overhead, and lead time in product development. The goal of this research is to orchestrate information exchange among trading partners to allow for aggregate-level analysis to enhance supply chain efficiency. The notion of Enterprise Interface Control (EIC) is introduced as a means of accomplishing this end.

  19. An oil demand and supply model incorporating monetary policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Askari, Hossein; Krichene, Noureddine

    2010-01-01

    Oil price inflation may have had a significant role in pushing the world economy into its worst post-war recession during 2008-2009. Reserve currency central banks pursued an overly expansionary monetary policy during 2001-2009, in the form of low or negative real interest rates and accompanied by a rapidly falling US dollar, while paying inadequate attention to the destabilizing effects on oil markets. In this paper, we show that monetary policy variables, namely key interest rates and the US dollar exchange rate, had a powerful effect on oil markets. World oil demand was significantly influenced by interest and dollar exchange rates, while oil supply was rigid. Oil demand and supply have very low price elasticity and this characteristic makes oil prices highly volatile and subject to wider fluctuations than the prices of other commodities. Aggressive monetary policy would stimulate oil demand, however, it would be met with rigid oil supply and would turn inflationary and disruptive to economic growth if there was little excess capacity in oil output. We argue that a measure of stability in oil markets cannot be achieved unless monetary policy is restrained and real interest rates become significantly positive. Monetary tightening during 1979-1982 might imply that monetary policy has to be restrained for a long period and with high interest rates in order to bring stability back to oil markets. (author)

  20. Validation of groundwater modelling for DDT and petroleum hydrocarbons at Border Pump Station and Rainy Hollow, northern British Columbia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dodd, M.; Bright, D.; Hartshorne, B.

    2001-01-01

    Border Station and Rainy Hollow are inactive booster pumping stations along the Haines-Fairbanks Pipeline in northern British Columbia. An emergency site cleanup was conducted in 1994 after canisters containing DDT [1,1,1-trichloro-2,2-bis(p-chloro phenyl)ethane] were discovered buried in a dump. A detailed site investigation showed that hydrocarbons and DDT were present in soil and groundwater. The major contaminants of concern were DDTs in surface soil, DDTs in subsurface soils and groundwater, and light hydrocarbons in subsurface soils and groundwater. Remedial action took place in the summer of 1997. The canisters, along with soils and other contaminated materials, were excavated and shipped off-site for disposal. A conceptual groundwater model was developed to predict future contaminant releases to the nearby Klehini River. A monitoring program was initiated to validate the groundwater model. From 1997 to 2000, the groundwater was sampled analyzed annually for DDT, metals and hydrocarbons. Results indicated a striking overall consistency in the concentrations of DDT and hydrocarbons in both groundwater and surface water samples, confirming the validity of the 1996 model predictions. 12 refs., 1 tab., 4 figs

  1. Modeling of biomass-to-energy supply chain operations: Applications, challenges and research directions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mafakheri, Fereshteh; Nasiri, Fuzhan

    2014-01-01

    Reducing dependency on fossil fuels and mitigating their environmental impacts are among the most promising aspects of utilizing renewable energy sources. The availability of various biomass resources has made it an appealing source of renewable energy. Given the variability of supply and sources of biomass, supply chains play an important role in the efficient provisioning of biomass resources for energy production. This paper provides a comprehensive review and classification of the excising literature in modeling of biomass supply chain operations while linking them to the wider strategic challenges and issues with the design, planning and management of biomass supply chains. On that basis, we will present an analysis of the existing gaps and the potential future directions for research in modeling of biomass supply chain operations. - Highlights: • An extensive review of biomass supply chain operations management models presented in the literature is provided. • The models are classified in line with biomass supply chain activities from harvesting to conversion. • The issues surrounding biomass supply chains are investigated manifesting the need to novel modeling approaches. • Our gap analysis has identified a number of existing shortcomings and opportunities for future research

  2. Receptor modeling for source apportionment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in urban atmosphere.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Kunwar P; Malik, Amrita; Kumar, Ranjan; Saxena, Puneet; Sinha, Sarita

    2008-01-01

    This study reports source apportionment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in particulate depositions on vegetation foliages near highway in the urban environment of Lucknow city (India) using the principal components analysis/absolute principal components scores (PCA/APCS) receptor modeling approach. The multivariate method enables identification of major PAHs sources along with their quantitative contributions with respect to individual PAH. The PCA identified three major sources of PAHs viz. combustion, vehicular emissions, and diesel based activities. The PCA/APCS receptor modeling approach revealed that the combustion sources (natural gas, wood, coal/coke, biomass) contributed 19-97% of various PAHs, vehicular emissions 0-70%, diesel based sources 0-81% and other miscellaneous sources 0-20% of different PAHs. The contributions of major pyrolytic and petrogenic sources to the total PAHs were 56 and 42%, respectively. Further, the combustion related sources contribute major fraction of the carcinogenic PAHs in the study area. High correlation coefficient (R2 > 0.75 for most PAHs) between the measured and predicted concentrations of PAHs suggests for the applicability of the PCA/APCS receptor modeling approach for estimation of source contribution to the PAHs in particulates.

  3. The More Supply Chain Control Power, the Better? A Comparison among Four Kinds of Cooperation Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weihua Liu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper introduces the parameter of supply chain control power into existing supply chain coordination models and explores the impacts of control power on the profits of manufacturer, retailer, and the overall supply chain under four modes of decision-making, including the decentralized decision-making dominated by manufacturer, the decentralized decision-making dominated by retailer, centralized decision-making, and Nash negotiation decision-making. Some significant conclusions are obtained. Firstly, supply chain control power does have great impact on the supply chain profits. The profit of the whole supply chain with centralized decision-making is higher than those of the other three modes, while the overall profit of supply chain with decentralized decision-making is superior to the profit when retailer and manufacturer dominate the supply chain together. Secondly, with decentralized decision-making, for manufacturer and retailer, it is beneficial to gain the control powers of the supply chain; however, control power has an optimal value, not the bigger, the better. Thirdly, under certain circumstances, order quantity will increase and the wholesale price will decrease when control power is transferred from manufacturer to retailer. In this case, the total profit of supply chain dominated by retailer will be greater than that dominated by manufacturer.

  4. Optimizing bi-objective, multi-echelon supply chain model using particle swarm intelligence algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sathish Kumar, V. R.; Anbuudayasankar, S. P.; Rameshkumar, K.

    2018-02-01

    In the current globalized scenario, business organizations are more dependent on cost effective supply chain to enhance profitability and better handle competition. Demand uncertainty is an important factor in success or failure of a supply chain. An efficient supply chain limits the stock held at all echelons to the extent of avoiding a stock-out situation. In this paper, a three echelon supply chain model consisting of supplier, manufacturing plant and market is developed and the same is optimized using particle swarm intelligence algorithm.

  5. Modeling and forecasting the supply of oil and gas: a survey of existing approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walls, M.A.

    1992-01-01

    This paper surveys the literature on empirical oil and gas supply modeling. The models fall into two broad categories: geologic/engineering and econometric. Two types of geologic/engineering models are surveyed - play analysis, or simulation models and discovery process models. A third category of supply models, 'hybrids', which contain features of both econometric and discovery process models are also discussed. Particular attention is paid to whether or not the models have linkages between a dynamic model of producer optimizing behaviour and the factors governing supply of the resource; whether or not expectations of future prices, costs, and other stochastic variables are incorporated; whether the physical characteristics of non-renewable resources are captured; and how well the models perform. The paper concludes that the best path for future research efforts is a hybrid approach where the econometric component is derived from a stochastic dynamic optimization model of exploration behaviour. 51 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab

  6. Critical evaluation of paradigms for modelling integrated supply chains

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Dam, K.H.; Adhitya, A.; Srinivasan, R.; Lukszo, Z.

    2009-01-01

    Contemporary problems in process systems engineering often require model-based decision support tool. Among the various modelling paradigms, equation-based models and agent-based models are widely used to develop dynamic models of systems. Which is the most appropriate modelling paradigm for a

  7. Household Labour Supply in Britain and Denmark: Some Interpretations Using a Model of Pareto Optimal Behaviour

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barmby, Tim; Smith, Nina

    1996-01-01

    This paper analyses the labour supply behaviour of households in Denmark and Britain. It employs models in which the preferences of individuals within the household are explicitly represented. The households are then assumed to decide on their labour supply in a Pareto-Optimal fashion. Describing...

  8. Risk management in organic coffee supply chains : testing the usefulness of critical risk models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brusselaers, J.F.; Benninga, J.; Hennen, W.H.G.J.

    2011-01-01

    This report documents the findings of the analysis of the supply chain of organic coffee from Uganda to the Netherlands using a Chain Risk Model (CRM). The CRM considers contamination of organic coffee with chemicals as a threat for the supply chain, and analyses the consequences of contamination in

  9. A Modeling Framework for Supply Chain Simulation: Opportunities for Improved Decision Making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zee, van der D.J.; Vorst, van der J.G.A.J.

    2005-01-01

    Owing to its inherent modeling flexibility, simulation is often regarded as the proper means for supporting decision making on supply chain design. The ultimate success of supply chain simulation, however, is determined by a combination of the analyst's skills, the chain members' involvement, and

  10. A modeling framework for supply chain simulation : opportunities for improved decision-making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Zee, D.J.; van der Vorst, J.G.A.J.

    Owing to its inherent modeling flexibility, simulation is often regarded as the proper means for supporting decision making on supply chain design. The ultimate success of supply chain simulation, however, is determined by a combination of the analyst's skills, the chain members' involvement, and

  11. Linear programming models with planned lead times for supply chain operations planning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Spitter, J.M.; Hurkens, C.A.J.; Kok, de A.G.; Lenstra, J.K.; Negenman, E.G.

    2005-01-01

    This paper contributes to the development of models for capacity constrained Supply Chain Operations Planning (SCOP). We focus on production environments with arbitrary supply chain structures. The demand for the end items is assumed to be exogenously determined. We solve the SCOP problem with

  12. Evolutionary Game Model Study of Construction Green Supply Chain Management under the Government Intervention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xing, Yuanzhi; Deng, Xiaoyi

    2017-11-01

    The paper first has defined the concepts of green supply chain management and evolution game theory, and pointed out the characteristics of green supply chain management in construction. The main participants and key links of the construction green supply chain management are determined by constructing the organization framework. This paper established the evolutionary game model between construction enterprises and recycling enterprises for the green supply chain closed-loop structure. The waste recycling evolutionary stability equilibrium solution is obtained to explore the principle and effective scope of government policy intervention. This paper put forward the relevant countermeasures to the green supply chain management in construction recycling stage from the government point of view. The conclusion has reference value and guidance to the final product construction enterprises, recycling enterprises and the government during green supply chain.

  13. Modelling inter-supply chain competition with resource limitation and demand disruption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Zhaobo; Teng, Chunxian; Zhang, Ding; Sun, Jiayi

    2016-05-01

    This paper proposes a comprehensive model for studying supply chain versus supply chain competition with resource limitation and demand disruption. We assume that there are supply chains with heterogeneous supply network structures that compete at multiple demand markets. Each supply chain is comprised of internal and external firms. The internal firms are coordinated in production and distribution and share some common but limited resources within the supply chain, whereas the external firms are independent and do not share the internal resources. The supply chain managers strive to develop optimal strategies in terms of production level and resource allocation in maximising their profit while facing competition at the end market. The Cournot-Nash equilibrium of this inter-supply chain competition is formulated as a variational inequality problem. We further study the case when there is demand disruption in the plan-execution phase. In such a case, the managers need to revise their planned strategy in order to maximise their profit with the new demand under disruption and minimise the cost of change. We present a bi-criteria decision-making model for supply chain managers and develop the optimal conditions in equilibrium, which again can be formulated by another variational inequality problem. Numerical examples are presented for illustrative purpose.

  14. Uninterruptible power supply model of independent voltage inverter of NPP electrical equipment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rozhkov, V.V.; Ajdaralieva, V.Eh.

    2010-01-01

    A package of main transforming units models of advanced uninterruptible power supply systems of NPP electrical equipment was developed. The package of models allows investigating the basic modes of uninterruptible power supply systems operation by computer modeling. Simulation results were presented. Recommendations on choice of parameters of power circuit elements as well as on diagnostics and adjustment of regulators of converters control systems were given [ru

  15. A Stochastic Model for Improving Information Security in Supply Chain Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Ibrahim Al Kattan; Ahmed Al Nunu; Kassem Saleh

    2009-01-01

    This article presents a probabilistic security model for supply chain management systems (SCM) in which the basic goals of security (including confidentiality, integrity, availability and accountability, CIAA) are modeled and analyzed. Consequently, the weak points in system security are identified. A stochastic model using measurable values to describe the information system security of a SCM is introduced. Information security is a crucial and integral part of the network of supply chains. ...

  16. Model Titan atmospheric hydrocarbon analysis by Ion Mobility Spectrometry in dry helium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kojiro, D.R.; Stimac, R.M.; Wernlund, R.F.; Cohen, M.J.

    1990-01-01

    Ion Mobility Spectrometry (IMS) is one analytical technique being investigated for the in situ analysis of the atmosphere of Titan. Any hydrocarbon ions that may form react immediately, in microseconds, with the high concentration of water vapor normally present in conventional IMS. By reducing the water concentration to the parts-per-billion range, the lifetime of the hydrocarbon ions may be increased to the milliseconds required for measurement. At low water level concentrations, other species may become the reactant ion. This study focuses on IMS analysis of expected Titan atmospheric hydrocarbons under very dry, low water concentration conditions

  17. Coordination of pricing and co-op advertising models in supply chain: A game theoretic approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amin Alirezaei

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Co-op advertising is an interactive relationship between manufacturer and retailer(s supply chain and makes up the majority of marketing budget in many product lines for manufacturers and retailers. This paper considers pricing and co-op advertising decisions in two-stage supply chain and develops a monopolistic retailer and duopolistic retailer's model. In these models, the manufacturer and the retailers play the Nash, Manufacturer-Stackelberg and cooperative game to make optimal pricing and co-op advertising decisions. A bargaining model is utilized for determine the best pricing and co-op advertising scheme for achieving full coordination in the supply chain.

  18. Numerical investigation of CO2 storage in hydrocarbon field using a geomechanical-fluid coupling model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guang Li

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Increasing pore pressure due to CO2 injection can lead to stress and strain changes of the reservoir. One of the safely standards for long term CO2 storage is whether stress and strain changes caused by CO2 injection will lead to irreversible mechanical damages of the reservoir and impact the integrity of caprock which could lead to CO2 leakage through previously sealing structures. Leakage from storage will compromise both the storage capacity and the perceived security of the project, therefore, a successful CO2 storage project requires large volumes of CO2 to be injected into storage site in a reliable and secure manner. Yougou hydrocarbon field located in Orods basin was chosen as storage site based on it's stable geological structure and low leakage risks. In this paper, we present a fluid pressure and stress-strain variations analysis for CO2 geological storage based on a geomechanical-fluid coupling model. Using nonlinear elasticity theory to describe the geomechanical part of the model, while using the Darcy's law to describe the fluid flow. Two parts are coupled together using the poroelasticity theory. The objectives of our work were: 1 evaluation of the geomechanical response of the reservoir to different CO2 injection scenarios. 2 assessment of the potential leakage risk of the reservoir caused by CO2 injection.

  19. The Implementation of Vendor Managed Inventory In the Supply Chain with Simple Probabilistic Inventory Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Ika Deefi

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Numerous studies show that the implementation of Vendor Managed Inventory (VMI benefits all members of the supply chain. This research develops model to prove the benefits obtained from implementing VMI to supplier-buyer partnership analytically. The model considers a two-level supply chain which consists of a single supplier and a single buyer. The analytical model is developed to supply chain inventory with probabilistic demand which follows normal distribution. The model also incorporates lead time as a decision variable and investigates the impacts of inventory management before and after the implementation of the VMI. The result shows that the analytical model has the ability to reduce the supply chain expected cost, improve the service level and increase the inventory replenishment. Numerical examples are given to prove them.

  20. Dynamics of global supply chain and electric power networks: Models, pricing analysis, and computations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsypura, Dmytro

    In this dissertation, I develop a new theoretical framework for the modeling, pricing analysis, and computation of solutions to electric power supply chains with power generators, suppliers, transmission service providers, and the inclusion of consumer demands. In particular, I advocate the application of finite-dimensional variational inequality theory, projected dynamical systems theory, game theory, network theory, and other tools that have been recently proposed for the modeling and analysis of supply chain networks (cf. Nagurney (2006)) to electric power markets. This dissertation contributes to the extant literature on the modeling, analysis, and solution of supply chain networks, including global supply chains, in general, and electric power supply chains, in particular, in the following ways. It develops a theoretical framework for modeling, pricing analysis, and computation of electric power flows/transactions in electric power systems using the rationale for supply chain analysis. The models developed include both static and dynamic ones. The dissertation also adds a new dimension to the methodology of the theory of projected dynamical systems by proving that, irrespective of the speeds of adjustment, the equilibrium of the system remains the same. Finally, I include alternative fuel suppliers, along with their behavior into the supply chain modeling and analysis framework. This dissertation has strong practical implications. In an era in which technology and globalization, coupled with increasing risk and uncertainty, complicate electricity demand and supply within and between nations, the successful management of electric power systems and pricing become increasingly pressing topics with relevance not only for economic prosperity but also national security. This dissertation addresses such related topics by providing models, pricing tools, and algorithms for decentralized electric power supply chains. This dissertation is based heavily on the following

  1. A review of agent-based modeling approach in the supply chain collaboration context

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arvitrida, N. I.

    2018-04-01

    Collaboration is considered as the key aspect of supply chain management (SCM) success. This issue has been addressed by many studies in recent years, but there are still few research employs agent-based modeling (ABM) approach to study business partnerships in SCM. This paper reviews the use of ABM in modeling collaboration in supply chains and inform the scope of ABM application in the existing literature. The review reveals that ABM can be an effective tool to address various aspects in supply chain relationships, but its applications in SCM studies are still limited. Moreover, where ABM is applied in the SCM context, most of the studies focus on software architecture rather than analyzing the supply chain issues. This paper also provides insights to SCM researchers about the opportunity uses of ABM in studying complexity in supply chain collaboration.

  2. SCRL-Model for Human Space Flight Operations Enterprise Supply Chain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tucker, Brian; Paxton, Joseph

    2010-01-01

    This paper will present a Supply Chain Readiness Level (SCRL) model that can be used to evaluate and configure adaptable and sustainable program and mission supply chains at an enterprise level. It will also show that using SCRL in conjunction with Technology Readiness Levels (TRLs), Manufacturing Readiness Levels (MRLs) and National Aeronautics Space Administrations (NASA s) Project Lifecycle Process will provide a more complete means of developing and evaluating a robust sustainable supply chain that encompasses the entire product, system and mission lifecycle. In addition, it will be shown that by implementing the SCRL model, NASA can additionally define supplier requirements to enable effective supply chain management (SCM). Developing and evaluating overall supply chain readiness for any product, system and mission lifecycle is critical for mission success. Readiness levels are presently being used to evaluate the maturity of technology and manufacturing capability during development and deployment phases of products and systems. For example, TRLs are used to support the assessment of the maturity of a particular technology and compare maturity of different types of technologies. MRLs are designed to assess the maturity and risk of a given technology from a manufacturing perspective. In addition, when these measurement systems are used collectively they can offer a more comprehensive view of the maturity of the system. While some aspects of the supply chain and supply chain planning are considered in these familiar metric systems, certain characteristics of an effective supply chain, when evaluated in more detail, will provide an improved insight into the readiness and risk throughout the supply chain. Therefore, a system that concentrates particularly on supply chain attributes is required to better assess enterprise supply chain readiness.

  3. Optimal design of supply chain network under uncertainty environment using hybrid analytical and simulation modeling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiadamrong, N.; Piyathanavong, V.

    2017-12-01

    Models that aim to optimize the design of supply chain networks have gained more interest in the supply chain literature. Mixed-integer linear programming and discrete-event simulation are widely used for such an optimization problem. We present a hybrid approach to support decisions for supply chain network design using a combination of analytical and discrete-event simulation models. The proposed approach is based on iterative procedures until the difference between subsequent solutions satisfies the pre-determined termination criteria. The effectiveness of proposed approach is illustrated by an example, which shows closer to optimal results with much faster solving time than the results obtained from the conventional simulation-based optimization model. The efficacy of this proposed hybrid approach is promising and can be applied as a powerful tool in designing a real supply chain network. It also provides the possibility to model and solve more realistic problems, which incorporate dynamism and uncertainty.

  4. Capacity modelling of the coal value chain at Sasol Coal Supply

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Harmse, M

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available plants. The plants must be supplied with adequate coal to sustain production. A simulation model was built to test the feasibility of blending the coal from the mines according to a weekly blend plan....

  5. Development of oil supply and demand planning model for mid- and long-term

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Sung Hyun [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea)

    1997-10-01

    Despite the liberalization of oil market, a systematic model is required for reasonable supply and demand of oil, which still has an important influence on industry and state economy. It is required a demand model deriving prospects of each sector and product and a supply model examining the optimum rate of operation, production mix of products, stock, export and import, and the size of equipment investment to meet given demand. As the first phase for the development of supply and demand model, the existing oil and energy models in domestic and overseas were reviewed and recommendations for establishing a Korean oil supply and demand model were derived in this study. Based on these, a principle for establishing a model and a rough framework were set up. In advance of mid- and long-term prospects, a short-term prospect model was established and the short-term prospects for the first quarter of 1999 and for the year 1999 were presented on trial. Due to the size and characters of a supply model, a plan for an ideal model was first explained and then a plan for creating a model step by step was presented as a realistic scheme. (author). 16 refs., 9 figs., 19 tabs.

  6. Mathematical supply-chain modelling: Product analysis of cost and time

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Easters, D J

    2014-01-01

    Establishing a mathematical supply-chain model is a proposition that has received attention due to its inherent benefits of evolving global supply-chain efficiencies. This paper discusses the prevailing relationships found within apparel supply-chain environments, and contemplates the complex issues indicated for constituting a mathematical model. Principal results identified within the data suggest, that the multifarious nature of global supply-chain activities require a degree of simplification in order to fully dilate the necessary factors which affect, each sub-section of the chain. Subsequently, the research findings allowed the division of supply-chain components into sub-sections, which amassed a coherent method of product development activity. Concurrently, the supply-chain model was found to allow systematic mathematical formulae analysis, of cost and time, within the multiple contexts of each subsection encountered. The paper indicates the supply-chain model structure, the mathematics, and considers how product analysis of cost and time can improve the comprehension of product lifecycle management

  7. Mathematical supply-chain modelling: Product analysis of cost and time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Easters, D. J.

    2014-03-01

    Establishing a mathematical supply-chain model is a proposition that has received attention due to its inherent benefits of evolving global supply-chain efficiencies. This paper discusses the prevailing relationships found within apparel supply-chain environments, and contemplates the complex issues indicated for constituting a mathematical model. Principal results identified within the data suggest, that the multifarious nature of global supply-chain activities require a degree of simplification in order to fully dilate the necessary factors which affect, each sub-section of the chain. Subsequently, the research findings allowed the division of supply-chain components into sub-sections, which amassed a coherent method of product development activity. Concurrently, the supply-chain model was found to allow systematic mathematical formulae analysis, of cost and time, within the multiple contexts of each subsection encountered. The paper indicates the supply-chain model structure, the mathematics, and considers how product analysis of cost and time can improve the comprehension of product lifecycle management.

  8. MEASUREMENT FOR ACCEPTANCE OF SUPPLY CHAIN SIMULATOR APPLICATION USING TECHNOLOGY ACCEPTANCE MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mulyati E.

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this research for was to measure the user acceptance of simulator application which was built as a tool for student in learning of supply chain, particularly in bullwhip effect problem. The measurements used for the acceptance of supply chain simulator application in this research was the Technology Acceptance Model from 162 samples which were analyzed with Confirmatory Factor Analysis and Structural Equation Modelling. The result of this research indicated that the user acceptance (shown by customer participation of supply chain simulator was directly influence by perceived usefulness of supply chain simulator application used (positive and significant; the user acceptance of supply chain simulator was indirectly influenced by perceived ease of use in using supply chain simulator application (positive but not significant; the user acceptance of supply chain simulator was indirectly influenced by perceived enjoyment when the supply chain simulator application was used. The research would give a better understanding about a bullwhip effect and better experience for students, which would not be obtained through conventional learning, when the tools were not used.

  9. Modelling Reliability of Supply and Infrastructural Dependency in Energy Distribution Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Helseth, Arild

    2008-01-01

    This thesis presents methods and models for assessing reliability of supply and infrastructural dependency in energy distribution systems with multiple energy carriers. The three energy carriers of electric power, natural gas and district heating are considered. Models and methods for assessing reliability of supply in electric power systems are well documented, frequently applied in the industry and continuously being subject to research and improvement. On the contrary, there are compar...

  10. Polygonal current models for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and graphene sheets of various shapes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pelloni, Stefano; Lazzeretti, Paolo

    2018-01-05

    Assuming that graphene is an "infinite alternant" polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon resulting from tessellation of a surface by only six-membered carbon rings, planar fragments of various size and shape (hexagon, triangle, rectangle, and rhombus) have been considered to investigate their response to a magnetic field applied perpendicularly. Allowing for simple polygonal current models, the diatropicity of a series of polycyclic textures has been reliably determined by comparing quantitative indicators, the π-electron contribution to I B , the magnetic field-induced current susceptibility of the peripheral circuit, to ξ∥ and to σ∥(CM)=-NICS∥(CM), respectively the out-of-plane components of the magnetizability tensor and of the magnetic shielding tensor at the center of mass. Extended numerical tests and the analysis based on the polygonal model demonstrate that (i) ξ∥ and σ∥(CM) yield inadequate and sometimes erroneous measures of diatropicity, as they are heavily flawed by spurious geometrical factors, (ii) I B values computed by simple polygonal models are valid quantitative indicators of aromaticity on the magnetic criterion, preferable to others presently available, whenever current susceptibility cannot be calculated ab initio as a flux integral, (iii) the hexagonal shape is the most effective to maximize the strength of π-electron currents over the molecular perimeter, (iv) the edge current strength of triangular and rhombic graphene fragments is usually much smaller than that of hexagonal ones, (v) doping by boron and nitrogen nuclei can regulate and even inhibit peripheral ring currents, (vi) only for very large rectangular fragments can substantial current strengths be expected. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  11. How do salt withdrawal minibasins form? Insights from forward modelling, and implications for hydrocarbon migration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peel, Frank J.

    2014-09-01

    Existing models for the initiation of salt withdrawal minibasins focus on the role of triggers that exist within the minibasin, either stratigraphic (e.g. differential deposition) or tectonic (extension, translation or contraction). Existing studies tend to focus on complex settings, such as continental margins, which contain many different potential triggering mechanisms. It can be difficult in these settings to identify which process is responsible for minibasin initiation, or the influence of individual factors on their subsequent development. Salt withdrawal minibasins also exist in simpler settings, without any obvious intrinsic trigger; the region of the North German Basin used by Trusheim (1960) in the classic definition of salt withdrawal geometries was of this nature. There is no overall basal or surface slope, no major lateral movement, and there is no depositional heterogeneity. Previously recognized trigger processes for minibasin initiation do not apply in this benign setting, suggesting that other, potentially more fundamental, influences may be at work. A simple forward-modelling approach shows how, in the absence of any other mechanism, a new minibasin can develop as the consequence of salt movement driven by its neighbour, and families of withdrawal minibasins can propagate across a region from a single seed point. This new mechanism may explain how some minibasins appear to initiate before the sediment density has exceeded that of the underlying salt. The forward modelling also indicates that some minibasins begin to invert to form turtle anticlines before the underlying salt has been evacuated, so that the timing of turtle formation may not be diagnostic of weld formation. This mechanism may also give rise to salt-cored turtles that have a lens of salt trapped beneath their cores. These new findings have implications for hydrocarbon migration and trapping.

  12. Evaluation of the phototoxicity of unsubstituted and alkylated polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons to mysid shrimp (Americamysis bahia): Validation of predictive models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finch, Bryson E; Marzooghi, Solmaz; Di Toro, Dominic M; Stubblefield, William A

    2017-08-01

    Crude oils are composed of an assortment of hydrocarbons, some of which are polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons are of particular interest due to their narcotic and potential phototoxic effects. Several studies have examined the phototoxicity of individual PAHs and fresh and weathered crude oils, and several models have been developed to predict PAH toxicity. Fingerprint analyses of oils have shown that PAHs in crude oils are predominantly alkylated. However, current models for estimating PAH phototoxicity assume toxic equivalence between unsubstituted (i.e., parent) and alkyl-substituted compounds. This approach may be incorrect if substantial differences in toxic potency exist between unsubstituted and substituted PAHs. The objective of the present study was to examine the narcotic and photo-enhanced toxicity of commercially available unsubstituted and alkylated PAHs to mysid shrimp (Americamysis bahia). Data were used to validate predictive models of phototoxicity based on the highest occupied molecular orbital-lowest unoccupied molecular orbital (HOMO-LUMO) gap approach and to develop relative effect potencies. Results demonstrated that photo-enhanced toxicity increased with increasing methylation and that phototoxic PAH potencies vary significantly among unsubstituted compounds. Overall, predictive models based on the HOMO-LUMO gap were relatively accurate in predicting phototoxicity for unsubstituted PAHs but are limited to qualitative assessments. Environ Toxicol Chem 2017;36:2043-2049. © 2017 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.

  13. Modelling of Sudan’s Energy Supply, Transformation, and Demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali A. Rabah

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The study aimed to develop energy flow diagram (Sankey diagram of Sudan for the base year 2014. The developed Sankey diagram is the first of its kind in Sudan. The available energy balance for the base year 2012 is a simple line draw and did not count the energy supply by private and mixed sectors such as sugar and oil industries and marine and civil aviation. The private and mixed sectors account for about 7% of the national grid electric power. Four energy modules are developed: resources, transformation, demand, and export and import modules. The data are obtained from relevant Sudanese ministries and directorates and Sudan Central Bank. “e!Sankey 4 pro” software is used to develop the Sankey diagram. The main primary types of energy in Sudan are oil, hydro, biomass, and renewable energy. Sudan has a surplus of gasoline, petroleum coke, and biomass and deficit in electric power, gasoil, jet oil, and LPG. The surplus of gasoline is exported; however, the petroleum coke is kept as reserve. The deficit is covered by import. The overall useful energy is 76% and the loss is 24%. The useful energy is distributed among residential (38%, transportation (33%, industry (12%, services (16%, and agriculture (1% sectors.

  14. The Export Supply Model of Bangladesh: An Application of Cointegration and Vector Error Correction Approaches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahmudul Mannan Toy

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The broad objective of this study is to empirically estimate the export supply model of Bangladesh. The techniques of cointegration, Engle-Granger causality and Vector Error Correction are applied to estimate the export supply model. The econometric analysis is done by using the time series data of the variables of interest which is collected from various secondary sources. The study has empirically tested the hypothesis, long run relationship and casualty between variables of the model. The cointegration analysis shows that all the variables of the study are co-integrated at their first differences meaning that there exists long run relationship among the variables. The VECM estimation shows the dynamics of variables in the export supply function and the short run and long run elasticities of export supply with respect to each independent variable. The error correction term is found negative which indicates that any short run disequilibrium will be turned into equilibrium in the long run.

  15. Development of S-ARIMA Model for Forecasting Demand in a Beverage Supply Chain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mircetic, Dejan; Nikolicic, Svetlana; Maslaric, Marinko; Ralevic, Nebojsa; Debelic, Borna

    2016-11-01

    Demand forecasting is one of the key activities in planning the freight flows in supply chains, and accordingly it is essential for planning and scheduling of logistic activities within observed supply chain. Accurate demand forecasting models directly influence the decrease of logistics costs, since they provide an assessment of customer demand. Customer demand is a key component for planning all logistic processes in supply chain, and therefore determining levels of customer demand is of great interest for supply chain managers. In this paper we deal with exactly this kind of problem, and we develop the seasonal Autoregressive IntegratedMoving Average (SARIMA) model for forecasting demand patterns of a major product of an observed beverage company. The model is easy to understand, flexible to use and appropriate for assisting the expert in decision making process about consumer demand in particular periods.

  16. Revenue-Sharing Contract Models for Logistics Service Supply Chains with Mass Customization Service

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weihua Liu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The revenue-sharing contract is one of the most important supply chain coordination contracts; it has been applied in various supply chains. However, studies related to service supply chains with mass customization (MC are lacking. Considering the equity of benefit distribution between the members of service supply chains, in this paper, we designed two revenue-sharing contracts. The first contract for the maximum equity of a single logistics service integrator (LSI and single functional logistics service provider (FLSP in a two-echelon logistics service supply chain was designed by introducing the fair entropy function (“one to one” model. Furthermore, the method is extended to a more complex supply chain, which consists of a single LSI and multiple FLSPs. A new contract was designed not only for considering the equity of an LSI and each FLSP but also for the equity between each FLSP (“one to N” model. The “one to one” model in three-echelon LSSC is also provided. The result exemplifies that, whether in the “one to one” model or “one to N” model, there exists a best interval of customized level when the revenue-sharing coefficient reaches its maximum.

  17. Statistical Modeling of Occupational Exposure to Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons Using OSHA Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Derrick G; Lavoué, Jérôme; Spinelli, John J; Burstyn, Igor

    2015-01-01

    Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are a group of pollutants with multiple variants classified as carcinogenic. The Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) provided access to two PAH exposure databanks of United States workplace compliance testing data collected between 1979 and 2010. Mixed-effects logistic models were used to predict the exceedance fraction (EF), i.e., the probability of exceeding OSHA's Permissible Exposure Limit (PEL = 0.2 mg/m3) for PAHs based on industry and occupation. Measurements of coal tar pitch volatiles were used as a surrogate for PAHs. Time, databank, occupation, and industry were included as fixed-effects while an identifier for the compliance inspection number was included as a random effect. Analyses involved 2,509 full-shift personal measurements. Results showed that the majority of industries had an estimated EF < 0.5, although several industries, including Standardized Industry Classification codes 1623 (Water, Sewer, Pipeline, and Communication and Powerline Construction), 1711 (Plumbing, Heating, and Air-Conditioning), 2824 (Manmade Organic Fibres), 3496 (Misc. Fabricated Wire products), and 5812 (Eating Places), and Major group's 13 (Oil and Gas Extraction) and 30 (Rubber and Miscellaneous Plastic Products), were estimated to have more than an 80% likelihood of exceeding the PEL. There was an inverse temporal trend of exceeding the PEL, with lower risk in most recent years, albeit not statistically significant. Similar results were shown when incorporating occupation, but varied depending on the occupation as the majority of industries predicted at the administrative level, e.g., managers, had an estimated EF < 0.5 while at the minimally skilled/laborer level there was a substantial increase in the estimated EF. These statistical models allow the prediction of PAH exposure risk through individual occupational histories and will be used to create a job-exposure matrix for use in a population-based case

  18. A System Dynamics Modeling of Water Supply and Demand in Las Vegas Valley

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parajuli, R.; Kalra, A.; Mastino, L.; Velotta, M.; Ahmad, S.

    2017-12-01

    The rise in population and change in climate have posed the uncertainties in the balance between supply and demand of water. The current study deals with the water management issues in Las Vegas Valley (LVV) using Stella, a system dynamics modeling software, to model the feedback based relationship between supply and demand parameters. Population parameters were obtained from Center for Business and Economic Research while historical water demand and conservation practices were modeled as per the information provided by local authorities. The water surface elevation of Lake Mead, which is the prime source of water supply to the region, was modeled as the supply side whereas the water demand in LVV was modeled as the demand side. The study was done from the period of 1989 to 2049 with 1989 to 2012 as the historical one and the period from 2013 to 2049 as the future period. This study utilizes Coupled Model Intercomparison Project data sets (2013-2049) (CMIP3&5) to model different future climatic scenarios. The model simulates the past dynamics of supply and demand, and then forecasts the future water budget for the forecasted future population and future climatic conditions. The results can be utilized by the water authorities in understanding the future water status and hence plan suitable conservation policies to allocate future water budget and achieve sustainable water management.

  19. A computer model of the MFTF-B neutral beam accel dc power supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilson, J.H.

    1983-01-01

    Using the SCEPTRE circuit modeling code, a computer model was developed for the MFTF Neutral Beam Power Supply System (NBPSS) Accel DC Power Supply (ADCPS). The ADCPS provides 90 kV, 88 A, to the Accel Modulator. Because of the complex behavior of the power supply, use of the computer model is necessary to adequately understand the power supply's behavior over a wide range of load conditions and faults. The model developed includes all the circuit components and parameters, and some of the stray values. The model has been well validated for transients with times on the order of milliseconds, and with one exception, for steady-state operation. When using a circuit modeling code for a system with a wide range of time constants, it can become impossible to obtain good solutions for all time ranges at once. The present model concentrates on the millisecond-range transients because the compensating capacitor bank tends to isolate the power supply from the load for faster transients. Attempts to include stray circuit elements with time constants in the microsecond and shorter range have had little success because of hugh increases in computing time that result. The model has been successfully extended to include the accel modulator

  20. Computer model of the MFTF-B neutral beam Accel dc power supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilson, J.H.

    1983-01-01

    Using the SCEPTRE circuit modeling code, a computer model was developed for the MFTF Neutral Beam Power Supply System (NBPSS) Accel dc Power Supply (ADCPS). The ADCPS provides 90 kV, 88 A, to the Accel Modulator. Because of the complex behavior of the power supply, use of the computer model is necessary to adequately understand the power supply's behavior over a wide range of load conditions and faults. The model developed includes all the circuit components and parameters, and some of the stray values. The model has been well validated for transients with times on the order of milliseconds, and with one exception, for steady-state operation. When using a circuit modeling code for a system with a wide range of time constants, it can become impossible to obtain good solutions for all time ranges at once. The present model concentrates on the millisecond-range transients because the compensating capacitor bank tends to isolate the power supply from the load for faster transients. Attempts to include stray circuit elements with time constants in the microsecond and shorter range have had little success because of huge increases in computing time that result. The model has been successfully extended to include the accel modulator

  1. Petroleum hydrocarbons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farrington, J.W.; Teal, J.M.; Parker, P.L.

    1976-01-01

    Methods for analysis of petroleum hydrocarbons in marine samples are presented. Types of hydrocarbons present and their origins are discussed. Principles and methods of analysis are outlined. Infrared spectrometry, uv spectrometry, gas chromatography, mass spectroscopy, and carbon 14 measurements are described

  2. e-Commerce and supply chains: Modelling of dynamics through ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    R. Narasimhan (Krishtel eMaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22

    The dynamics associated with two production planning and control policies are modelled, viz. .... Hence, there is a strong need to design a dynamic knowledge inference system .... sell a variety of components to the subassembly manufacturer.

  3. Regional modelling of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons: WRF-Chem-PAH model development and East Asia case studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mu, Qing; Lammel, Gerhard; Gencarelli, Christian N.; Hedgecock, Ian M.; Chen, Ying; Přibylová, Petra; Teich, Monique; Zhang, Yuxuan; Zheng, Guangjie; van Pinxteren, Dominik; Zhang, Qiang; Herrmann, Hartmut; Shiraiwa, Manabu; Spichtinger, Peter; Su, Hang; Pöschl, Ulrich; Cheng, Yafang

    2017-10-01

    Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are hazardous pollutants, with increasing emissions in pace with economic development in East Asia, but their distribution and fate in the atmosphere are not yet well understood. We extended the regional atmospheric chemistry model WRF-Chem (Weather Research Forecast model with Chemistry module) to comprehensively study the atmospheric distribution and the fate of low-concentration, slowly degrading semivolatile compounds. The WRF-Chem-PAH model reflects the state-of-the-art understanding of current PAHs studies with several new or updated features. It was applied for PAHs covering a wide range of volatility and hydrophobicity, i.e. phenanthrene, chrysene and benzo[a]pyrene, in East Asia. Temporally highly resolved PAH concentrations and particulate mass fractions were evaluated against observations. The WRF-Chem-PAH model is able to reasonably well simulate the concentration levels and particulate mass fractions of PAHs near the sources and at a remote outflow region of East Asia, in high spatial and temporal resolutions. Sensitivity study shows that the heterogeneous reaction with ozone and the homogeneous reaction with the nitrate radical significantly influence the fate and distributions of PAHs. The methods to implement new species and to correct the transport problems can be applied to other newly implemented species in WRF-Chem.

  4. A genetic algorithm for solving supply chain network design model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Firoozi, Z.; Ismail, N.; Ariafar, S. H.; Tang, S. H.; Ariffin, M. K. M. A.

    2013-09-01

    Network design is by nature costly and optimization models play significant role in reducing the unnecessary cost components of a distribution network. This study proposes a genetic algorithm to solve a distribution network design model. The structure of the chromosome in the proposed algorithm is defined in a novel way that in addition to producing feasible solutions, it also reduces the computational complexity of the algorithm. Computational results are presented to show the algorithm performance.

  5. SUPPLIES COSTS: AN EXPLORATORY STUDY WITH APPLICATION OF MEASUREMENT MODEL OF LOGISTICS COSTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Paula Ferreira Alves

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available One of the main reasons for the difficulty in adopting an integrated method of calculation of logistics costs is still a lack of adequate information about costs. The management of the supply chain and identify its costs can provide information for their managers, with regard to decision making, generating competitive advantage. Some models of calculating logistics costs are proposed by Uelze (1974, Dias (1996, Goldratt (2002, Christopher (2007, Castiglioni (2009 and Borba & Gibbon (2009, with little disclosure of the results. In this context, this study aims to evaluate the costs of supplies, applying a measurement model of logistics costs. Methodologically, the study characterized as exploratory. The model applied pointed, in original condition, that about R$ 2.5 million were being applied in the process of management of supplies, with replacement costs and storage imbalance. Upgrading the company's data, it is possible obtain a 52% reduction in costs to replace and store supplies. Thus, the cost model applied to logistical supplies showed feasibility of implementation, as well as providing information to assist in management and decision-making in logistics supply.

  6. Upgrade of DC power supply system in ITER CS model coil test facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shimono, Mitsugu; Uno, Yasuhiro; Yamazaki, Keita; Kawano, Katsumi; Isono, Takaaki

    2014-03-01

    Objective of the ITER CS Model Coil Test Facility is to evaluate a large scale superconducting conductor for fusion using the Central Solenoid (CS) Model Coil, which can generate a 13T magnetic field in the inner bore with a 1.5 m diameter. The facility is composed of a helium refrigerator / liquefier system, a DC power supply system, a vacuum system and a data acquisition system. The DC power supply system supplies currents to two superconducting coils, the CS Model Coil and an insert coil. A 50-kA DC power supply is installed for the CS Model Coil and two 30 kA DC power supplies are installed for an insert coil. In order to evaluate superconducting performance of a conductor used for ITER Toroidal Field (TF) coils whose operating current is 68 kA, the line for an insert coil is upgraded. A 10 kA DC power supply was added, DC circuit breakers were upgraded, bus bars and current measuring instrument were replaced. In accordance to the upgrade, operation manual was revised. (author)

  7. Analisis Strategi Mitigasi Resiko Pada Supply Chain CV Surya Cip Dengan House of Risk Model

    OpenAIRE

    Pertiwi, Yoana Ellen; Susanty, Aries

    2017-01-01

    Analysis of Risk Mitigation Strategies on CV Surya CIP's Supply Chain Using House of Risk Model. In the supply chain activities always has the potential of risk, therefore risk management is necessary for handling the risks. At the company that produces plastic molding machine such as CV Surya CIP, in its supply chain activities have a chance to arise risks. The purpose of this study is to identify the various risks that occur in the CV Surya CIP and its causes, severity and determine the ...

  8. The spread model of food safety risk under the supply-demand disturbance

    OpenAIRE

    Wang, Jining; Chen, Tingqiang

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, based on the imbalance of the supply-demand relationship of food, we design a spreading model of food safety risk, which is about from food producers to consumers in the food supply chain. We use theoretical analysis and numerical simulation to describe the supply-demand relationship and government supervision behaviors? influence on the risk spread of food safety and the behaviors of the food producers and the food retailers. We also analyze the influence of the awareness of c...

  9. Hedging Rules for Water Supply Reservoir Based on the Model of Simulation and Optimization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi Ji

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This study proposes a hedging rule model which is composed of a two-period reservior operation model considering the damage depth and hedging rule parameter optimization model. The former solves hedging rules based on a given poriod’s water supply weighting factor and carryover storage target, while the latter optimization model is used to optimize the weighting factor and carryover storage target based on the hedging rules. The coupling model gives the optimal poriod’s water supply weighting factor and carryover storage target to guide release. The conclusions achieved from this study as follows: (1 the water supply weighting factor and carryover storage target have a direct impact on the three elements of the hedging rule; (2 parameters can guide reservoirs to supply water reasonably after optimization of the simulation and optimization model; and (3 in order to verify the utility of the hedging rule, the Heiquan reservoir is used as a case study and particle swarm optimization algorithm with a simulation model is adopted for optimizing the parameter. The results show that the proposed hedging rule can improve the operation performances of the water supply reservoir.

  10. An automotive supply chain model for a demand-driven environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Intaher M. Ambe

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to demonstrate the development of a supply chain model for the automotive industry that would respond to changing consumer demand. Now more than ever, businesses need to improve the efficiency of their supply chains in order to maintain a competitive advantage. The principles of lean manufacturing and just-intime (JIT inventory control that were renowned for helping companies like Toyota, Dell and Walmart to rise to the top of their respective industries are no longer adequate. Leading companies are applying new technologies and sophisticated analytics to make their supply chains more responsive to customer demand. This challenge is driven by fierce competition, fluctuating market demand and rising customer requirements that have led to customers becoming more demanding with increased preferences. The article is based on theoretical reviews and suggests guidelines for the implementation of an automotive supply chain model for a demand-driven environment.

  11. A stochastic inventory management model for a dual sourcing supply chain with disruptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iakovou, Eleftherios; Vlachos, Dimitrios; Xanthopoulos, Anastasios

    2010-03-01

    As companies continue to globalise their operations and outsource significant portion of their value chain activities, they often end up relying heavily on order replenishments from distant suppliers. The explosion in long-distance sourcing is exposing supply chains and shareholder value at ever increasing operational and disruption risks. It is well established, both in academia and in real-world business environments, that resource flexibility is an effective method for hedging against supply chain disruption risks. In this contextual framework, we propose a single period stochastic inventory decision-making model that could be employed for capturing the trade-off between inventory policies and disruption risks for an unreliable dual sourcing supply network for both the capacitated and uncapacitated cases. Through the developed model, we obtain some important managerial insights and evaluate the merit of contingency strategies in managing uncertain supply chains.

  12. Control Theory Concepts Applied to Retail Supply Chain: A System Dynamics Modeling Environment Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Balaji Janamanchi

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Control theory concepts have been long used to successfully manage and optimize complex systems. Using system dynamics (SD modeling methodology, which is continuous deterministic simulation modeling methodology, we apply control theory concepts to develop a suitable performance functional (or objective function that optimizes the performance of a retail supply chain. The focus is to develop insights for inventory management to prevent stock-outs and unfilled orders and to fill customer orders at the lowest possible cost to supply chain partners under different scenarios, in a two-player supplier-retailer supply chain. Moderate levels of inventory, defining appropriate performance functional, appear to be crucial in choosing the right policies for managing retail supply chain systems. The study also demonstrated how multiple objectives can be combined in a single performance functional (or objective function by carefully assigning suitable weights to the components of objectives based on their priority and the existence of possible trade off opportunities.

  13. Pharmaceutical supply chain models: A synthesis from a systems view of operations research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ettore Settanni

    Full Text Available This research evaluates reconfiguration opportunities in Pharmaceutical Supply Chains (PSC resulting from technology interventions in manufacturing, and new, more patient-centric delivery models. A critical synthesis of the academic and practice literature is used to identify, conceptualise, analyse and categorise PSC models. From a theoretical perspective, a systems view of operations research is adopted to provide insights on a broader range of OR activities, from conceptual to mathematical modelling and model solving, up to implementation.The research demonstrates that: 1 current definitions of the PSC are largely production-centric and fail to capture patient consumption, and hence healthcare outcomes; 2 most PSC mathematical models lack adequate conceptualisation of the structure and behaviour of the supply chain, and the boundary conditions that need to be considered for a given problem; 3 models do not adequately specify current unit operations or future production technology options, and are therefore unable to address the critical questions around alternative product or process technologies; 4 economic evaluations are limited to direct costing, rather than systemic approaches such as supply chain costing and total cost of ownership.While current models of the PSC may help with the optimisation of specific unit operations, their theoretical benefits could be offset by the dynamics of complex upstream (supply and downstream (distribution and healthcare delivery systems. To overcome these limitations, this research provides initial directions towards an integrated systems approach to PSC modelling. This perspective involves problem conceptualisation and boundary definition; design, formulation and solution of mathematical models, through to practical implementation of identified solutions. For both academics and practitioners, research findings suggest a systems approach to PSC modelling can provide improved conceptualisation and

  14. Managing Risk in Supply Chain: A Model for the Classification of Potential Threats to Efficient Supply Chain Operation

    OpenAIRE

    H.P. Borgman; Wilfred Rachan

    2009-01-01

    This article resulted from our study of 3 manufacturing centric supply chain operations in Singapore through 4 iterations of Action Research (AR) guided by Gowin’s V (Rachan, 2007). Although, there is substantial volume of literature on the topic of Supply Chain Management, it came to our attention during the literature review stage of research process, that major concentration of literature was in SCM design and optimization or supply chain performance benchmarking. Almost all of the liter...

  15. Modeling of China's cassava-based bioethanol supply chain operation and coordination

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ye, Fei; Li, Yina; Lin, Qiang; Zhan, Yuanzhu

    2017-01-01

    As a useful alternative to petroleum-based fuel, biofuels are playing an increasingly important role due to their economic, environmental, and social benefits. Cassava is viewed as an important and highly attractive nonedible feedstock for the production of biofuels. In this paper, a game-theoretic approach is proposed to explore decision behavior within a cassava-based bioethanol supply chain under the condition of yield uncertainty. In addition, a production cost sharing contract is proposed to overcome the double marginalization effect due to competition between supply chain players. With data from China's cassava-based bioethanol industry, the paper analyzes the effects of the farmer's capacity, risk aversion, yield uncertainty, the conversion ratio, the bioethanol's market price and ethanol plant's operation cost on optimal decisions within the supply chain and its overall performance. In addition, the effectiveness of the proposed production cost sharing contract is tested, and the results show that it can enhance the supply of cassava, increase the utility of the whole supply chain and reduce the level of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The implications are set out for policy makers regarding how to promote the development of the biofuel industry, to guarantee the supply of feedstock, to reduce GHG emissions and to promote rural development. - Highlights: • Decision behavior within the cassava-based bioethanol supply chain is modeled. • Yield uncertainty and farmers' capacity and risk aversion are considered. • A production cost sharing contract is proposed to coordinate the supply chain. • The cassava supply, the utility and reduction on GHG emissions are increased. • Policy implications regarding how to promote biofuel supply chains are set out.

  16. Supply Chain Sustainability Analysis of Renewable Hydrocarbon Fuels via Indirect Liquefaction, Fast Pyrolysis, and Hydrothermal Liquefaction: Update of the 2016 State-of-Technology Cases and Design Cases

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cai, Hao [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States; Dunn, Jennifer [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States; Pegallapati, Ambica [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States; Li, Qianfeng [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States; Canter, Christina [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States; Tan, Eric [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Biddy, Mary [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Davis, Ryan [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Markham, Jennifer [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Talmadge, Michael [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Hartley, Damon [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Thompson, David [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Meyer, Pimphan A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Zhu, Yunhua [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Snowden-Swan, Lesley [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Jones, Susanne [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2017-02-01

    The Department of Energy’s (DOE) Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) aims to develop and deploy technologies to transform renewable biomass resources into commercially viable, high-performance biofuels, bioproducts and biopower through public and private partnerships (DOE, 2016). BETO and its national laboratory teams conduct in-depth technoeconomic assessments (TEA) of biomass feedstock supply and logistics and conversion technologies to produce biofuels, and life-cycle analysis of overall system sustainability.

  17. An automotive supply chain model for a demand-driven environment

    OpenAIRE

    Intaher M. Ambe; Johanna A. Badenhorst-Weiss

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to demonstrate the development of a supply chain model for the automotive industry that would respond to changing consumer demand. Now more than ever, businesses need to improve the efficiency of their supply chains in order to maintain a competitive advantage. The principles of lean manufacturing and just-intime (JIT) inventory control that were renowned for helping companies like Toyota, Dell and Walmart to rise to the top of their respective industries are no...

  18. Effects of supply chain management on tomato export in Iran : application of structural equation modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Fatemi, Matin; Azadi, Hossein; Rafiaani, Parisa; Taheri, Fatemeh; Dubois, Thomas; Passel, Van, Steven; Witlox, Frank

    2018-01-01

    Although Iran is one of the top 10 countries in the world that produce tomatoes, the level that they are exported into the global market is low. This issue may have resulted from a major problem within tomatoes’ supply chain management. This paper aims to develop an empirical model of the supply chain management (SCM) of tomato companies. Throughout the reviewed literature, a SCM construct with different six indi- cators has been developed, including information sharing, long-term relationshi...

  19. Performance metric optimization advocates CPFR in supply chains: A system dynamics model based study

    OpenAIRE

    Balaji Janamanchi; James R. Burns

    2016-01-01

    Background: Supply Chain partners often find themselves in rather helpless positions, unable to improve their firm’s performance and profitability because their partners although willing to share production information do not fully collaborate in tackling customer order variations as they don’t seem to appreciate the benefits of such collaboration. Methods: We use a two-player (supplier-manufacturer) System Dynamics model to study the dynamics to assess the impact and usefulness of supply cha...

  20. Unraveling Supply-Driven Business Models of Architectural Firms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bos-De Vos, M.; Volker, L.; Wamelink, J.W.F.; Kaminsky, Jessica; Zerjav, Vedran

    2016-01-01

    Architectural firms deliver services for various, unique projects that are all characterized by a high level of uncertainty. To successfully propose, create and capture value, they need business models that are able to deal with this variety and uncertainty. So far, little is known about the

  1. A Simulation Model of a Tandem Coordinated Supply Chain

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cannella, S.; Ciancimino, E.; Ashayeri, J.

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents a study of a coordinated production inventory-system. In the proposed model, any echelon considers its successors as part of its inventory system and generates the replenishment order on the basis of operational information of its partners. We show that the coordinated decision

  2. A Structural Labor Supply Model with Nonparametric Preferences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Soest, A.H.O.; Das, J.W.M.; Gong, X.

    2000-01-01

    Nonparametric techniques are usually seen as a statistic device for data description and exploration, and not as a tool for estimating models with a richer economic structure, which are often required for policy analysis.This paper presents an example where nonparametric flexibility can be attained

  3. Profit Analysis Model of Smart Item Implementation in Integrated Supply Chain Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tritularsih, Yustina; Rinanto, Andhy; Prasetyo, Hoedi; Nur Rosyidi, Cucuk

    2018-03-01

    Nowadays all links of the entire supply chain need to integrate their different infrastructures and they have better control of them to drive better profits. This integration should offer the ability for companies in order to have an overall and transparent insight to its supply chain activities. An intelligent supply chain which is mainly supported by Smart Items technology can satisfy the need of those integration. By means of Smart Items, a company can benefit some advantages. Those are cost reduction and value creation. However, currently there is no comprehensive Smart Item infrastructure exists yet so it is difficult to calculate the true benefit information. This paper attempts to recommend a model for estimating the benefits of implementing Smart Items in a company which has an integrated supply chain process. The integrated supply chain means that three echelons (supplier, shipper and retailer) of supply chain are belonged to a company. The proposed model was used to determine the shrinkage value and RFID tag price which can give the maximum benefit of Smart Items implementation. A numerical example is also provided to give a better comprehension on model calculation.

  4. Biomass supply from alternative cellulosic crops and crop residues: A spatially explicit bioeconomic modeling approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Egbendewe-Mondzozo, Aklesso; Swinton, Scott M.; Izaurralde, César R.; Manowitz, David H.; Zhang, Xuesong

    2011-01-01

    This paper introduces a spatially-explicit bioeconomic model for the study of potential cellulosic biomass supply. For biomass crops to begin to replace current crops, farmers must earn more from them than from current crops. Using weather, topographic and soil data, the terrestrial ecosystem model, EPIC, dynamically simulates multiple cropping systems that vary by crop rotation, tillage, fertilization and residue removal rate. EPIC generates predicted crop yield and environmental outcomes over multiple watersheds. These EPIC results are used to parameterize a regional profit-maximization mathematical programming model that identifies profitable cropping system choices. The bioeconomic model is calibrated to 2007–09 crop production in a 9-county region of southwest Michigan. A simulation of biomass supply in response to rising biomass prices shows that cellulosic residues from corn stover and wheat straw begin to be supplied at minimum delivered biomass:corn grain price ratios of 0.15 and 0.18, respectively. At the mean corn price of $162.6/Mg ($4.13 per bushel) at commercial moisture content during 2007–2009, these ratios correspond to stover and straw prices of $24 and $29 per dry Mg. Perennial bioenergy crops begin to be supplied at price levels 2–3 times higher. Average biomass transport costs to the biorefinery plant range from $6 to $20/Mg compared to conventional crop production practices in the area, biomass supply from annual crop residues increased greenhouse gas emissions and reduced water quality through increased nutrient loss. By contrast, perennial cellulosic biomass crop production reduced greenhouse gas emissions and improved water quality. -- Highlights: ► A new bioeconomic model predicts biomass supply and its environmental impacts. ► The model captures the opportunity cost of switching to new cellulosic crops. ► Biomass from crop residues is supplied at lower biomass price than cellulosic crops. ► Biomass from cellulosic crops has

  5. Modeling and analysing storage systems in agricultural biomass supply chain for cellulosic ethanol production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ebadian, Mahmood; Sowlati, Taraneh; Sokhansanj, Shahab; Townley-Smith, Lawrence; Stumborg, Mark

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► Studied the agricultural biomass supply chain for cellulosic ethanol production. ► Evaluated the impact of storage systems on different supply chain actors. ► Developed a combined simulation/optimization model to evaluate storage systems. ► Compared two satellite storage systems with roadside storage in terms of costs and emitted CO 2 . ► SS would lead to a more cost-efficient supply chain compared to roadside storage. -- Abstract: In this paper, a combined simulation/optimization model is developed to better understand and evaluate the impact of the storage systems on the costs incurred by each actor in the agricultural biomass supply chain including farmers, hauling contractors and the cellulosic ethanol plant. The optimization model prescribes the optimum number and location of farms and storages. It also determines the supply radius, the number of farms required to secure the annual supply of biomass and also the assignment of farms to storage locations. Given the specific design of the supply chain determined by the optimization model, the simulation model determines the number of required machines for each operation, their daily working schedule and utilization rates, along with the capacities of storages. To evaluate the impact of the storage systems on the delivered costs, three storage systems are molded and compared: roadside storage (RS) system and two satellite storage (SS) systems including SS with fixed hauling distance (SF) and SS with variable hauling distance (SV). In all storage systems, it is assumed the loading equipment is dedicated to storage locations. The obtained results from a real case study provide detailed cost figures for each storage system since the developed model analyses the supply chain on an hourly basis and considers time-dependence and stochasticity of the supply chain. Comparison of the storage systems shows SV would outperform SF and RS by reducing the total delivered cost by 8% and 6%, respectively

  6. MODEL DINAMIS SUPPLY CHAIN BERAS BERKELANJUTAN DALAM UPAYA KETAHANAN PANGAN NASIONAL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akhmad Mahbubi

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACTThis study was aimed to 1 identify the basic system of rice supply chain, 2 design a conceptual system and formulate a model of rice supply chain to achieve rice food security and 3 identify the sustainability behavior of the rice supply chain systems for the next 30 years from the aspects of economical revenue, social welfare and environment. Dynamic model was used to analyze the data. Referring to a variety of technical indicators achievement in the blueprint of national food security, several policy scenarios were used in the analysis of the behavior of rice supply chain systems until 2042 in economical revenue, social welfare and the environment aspects. The results of this study showed that the self-sufficiency of rice will continue until 2042 (the end of the study’s simulation. It also showed that in the long run, national rice food security will be disrupted if the government does not stop the conversion of agricultural land. Therefore, the government needs to issue a policy related to the conversion of agricultural land, especially paddy fields for infrastructure development.Keywords: rice, sustainable, food security, dynamic models, supply chainABSTRAKTujuan Penelitian adalah 1 mengidentifikasi sistem dasar supply chain beras, 2 menyusun konseptual sistem dan formulasi model supply chain beras untuk pencapaian ketahanan pangan nasional, serta 3 mengetahui perilaku sistem supply chain beras untuk 30 tahun kedepan tetap berkelanjutan dilihat dari aspek pendapatan ekonomi, sosial dan lingkungan. Analisis data menggunakan model dinamis. Beberapa skenario dalam analisis perilaku supply chain beras sampai tahun 2042 dilihat dari aspek pendapatan ekonomi, sosial dan lingkungan mengacu pada indikator pencapaian dalam blue print ketahanan pangan nasional. Hasil penelitian ini, swasembada pangan beras akan berkelanjutan sampai 2042 (akhir dari simulasi penelitian ini. Dalam jangka panjang, ketahanan pangan beras nasional akan terganggu

  7. A Hybrid Method for Modeling and Solving Supply Chain Optimization Problems with Soft and Logical Constraints

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paweł Sitek

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a hybrid method for modeling and solving supply chain optimization problems with soft, hard, and logical constraints. Ability to implement soft and logical constraints is a very important functionality for supply chain optimization models. Such constraints are particularly useful for modeling problems resulting from commercial agreements, contracts, competition, technology, safety, and environmental conditions. Two programming and solving environments, mathematical programming (MP and constraint logic programming (CLP, were combined in the hybrid method. This integration, hybridization, and the adequate multidimensional transformation of the problem (as a presolving method helped to substantially reduce the search space of combinatorial models for supply chain optimization problems. The operation research MP and declarative CLP, where constraints are modeled in different ways and different solving procedures are implemented, were linked together to use the strengths of both. This approach is particularly important for the decision and combinatorial optimization models with the objective function and constraints, there are many decision variables, and these are summed (common in manufacturing, supply chain management, project management, and logistic problems. The ECLiPSe system with Eplex library was proposed to implement a hybrid method. Additionally, the proposed hybrid transformed model is compared with the MILP-Mixed Integer Linear Programming model on the same data instances. For illustrative models, its use allowed finding optimal solutions eight to one hundred times faster and reducing the size of the combinatorial problem to a significant extent.

  8. Analyzing Supply Chain Uncertainty to Deliver Sustainable Operational Performance: Symmetrical and Asymmetrical Modeling Approaches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Asif Salam

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to analyze different types of supply chain uncertainties and suggest strategies to deal with unexpected contingencies to deliver superior operational performance (OP using symmetrical and asymmetrical modeling approaches. The data were collected through a survey given to 146 supply chain managers within the fast moving consumer goods industry in Thailand. Symmetrical modeling is applied via partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM in order to assess the theoretical relationships among the latent variables, while asymmetrical modeling is applied via fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA to emphasize their combinatory causal relation. The empirical results support the theory by highlighting the mediating effect of supply chain strategy (SCS in the relation between supply chain uncertainty (SCU and firms’ OP and, hence, deliver business sustainability for the firms, demonstrating that the choice of SCS should not be an “either-or” decision. This research contributes by providing an illustration of a PLS-SEM and fsQCA based estimation for the rapidly emerging field of sustainable supply chain management. This study provides empirical support for resource dependence theory (RDT in explaining the relation between SCU and SCS, which leads to sustainable OP. From a methodological standpoint, this study also illustrates predictive validation testing of models using holdout samples and testing for causal asymmetry.

  9. Development of an Assessment Model for Sustainable Supply Chain Management in Batik Industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mubiena, G. F.; Ma’ruf, A.

    2018-03-01

    This research proposes a dynamic assessment model for sustainable supply chain management in batik industry. The proposed model identifies the dynamic relationship between economic aspect, environment aspect and social aspect. The economic aspect refers to the supply chain operation reference model. The environment aspect uses carbon emissions and liquid waste as the attribute assessment, while the social aspect focus on employee’s welfare. Lean manufacturing concept was implemented as an alternative approach to sustainability. The simulation result shows that the average of sustainability score for 5 years increased from 65,3% to 70%. Future experiments will be conducted on design improvements to reach the company target on sustainability score.

  10. Technoeconomic assumptions adopted for the development of a long-term electricity supply model for Cyprus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taliotis, Constantinos; Taibi, Emanuele; Howells, Mark; Rogner, Holger; Bazilian, Morgan; Welsch, Manuel

    2017-10-01

    The generation mix of Cyprus has been dominated by oil products for decades. In order to conform with European Union and international legislation, a transformation of the supply system is called for. Energy system models can facilitate energy planning into the future, but a large volume of data is required to populate such models. The present data article provides information on key modelling assumptions and input data adopted with the aim of representing the electricity supply system of Cyprus in a separate research article. Data in regards to renewable energy technoeconomic characteristics and investment cost projections, fossil fuel price projections, storage technology characteristics and system operation assumptions are described in this article.

  11. A Four-Type Decision-Variable MINLP Model for a Supply Chain Network Design

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. M. Monteiro

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available We propose a mixed integer nonlinear programming model for the design of a one-period planning horizon supply chain with integrated and flexible decisions on location of plants and of warehouses, on levels of production and of inventory, and on transportation models, considering stochastic demand and the ABC classification for finished goods, which is an NP-hard industrial engineering optimization problem. Furthermore, computational implementation of the proposed model is presented through the direct application of the outer approximation algorithm on some randomly generated supply chain data.

  12. Long-term trends in US gas supply and prices: 1993 edition of the GRI baseline projection of US energy supply and demand to 2010

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woods, T.J.

    1993-03-01

    A Summary of the gas supply outlook in the 1993 Edition of the GRI Baseline Projection of U.S. Energy Supply and Demand, adopted as a major input to the planning cycle of the 1994 research and development program, is presented. Significant changes were made in developing the gas supply and price trends for the 1993 edition of the projection. The GRI Hydrocarbon Model was expanded to include the Canadian hydrocarbon resource base. Thus, Canadian and lower-48 gas production and prices were developed on a fully integrated basis in the 1993 projection. The lower-48 hydrocarbon resource estimate was increased, reflecting the results of the recent National Petroleum Council gas study and ongoing GRI resource work. The effects of new technology and practice on drilling costs and exploration efficiency were included for the first time. Appendices include comparisons of supply and price trends

  13. Reduced combustion mechanism for C1-C4 hydrocarbons and its application in computational fluid dynamics flare modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damodara, Vijaya; Chen, Daniel H; Lou, Helen H; Rasel, Kader M A; Richmond, Peyton; Wang, Anan; Li, Xianchang

    2017-05-01

    Emissions from flares constitute unburned hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide (CO), soot, and other partially burned and altered hydrocarbons along with carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and water. Soot or visible smoke is of particular concern for flare operators/regulatory agencies. The goal of the study is to develop a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model capable of predicting flare combustion efficiency (CE) and soot emission. Since detailed combustion mechanisms are too complicated for (CFD) application, a 50-species reduced mechanism, LU 3.0.1, was developed. LU 3.0.1 is capable of handling C 4 hydrocarbons and soot precursor species (C 2 H 2 , C 2 H 4 , C 6 H 6 ). The new reduced mechanism LU 3.0.1 was first validated against experimental performance indicators: laminar flame speed, adiabatic flame temperature, and ignition delay. Further, CFD simulations using LU 3.0.1 were run to predict soot emission and CE of air-assisted flare tests conducted in 2010 in Tulsa, Oklahoma, using ANSYS Fluent software. Results of non-premixed probability density function (PDF) model and eddy dissipation concept (EDC) model are discussed. It is also noteworthy that when used in conjunction with the EDC turbulence-chemistry model, LU 3.0.1 can reasonably predict volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions as well. A reduced combustion mechanism containing 50 C 1 -C 4 species and soot precursors has been developed and validated against experimental data. The combustion mechanism is then employed in the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) of modeling of soot emission and combustion efficiency (CE) of controlled flares for which experimental soot and CE data are available. The validated CFD modeling tools are useful for oil, gas, and chemical industries to comply with U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) mandate to achieve smokeless flaring with a high CE.

  14. The spread model of food safety risk under the supply-demand disturbance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jining; Chen, Tingqiang

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, based on the imbalance of the supply-demand relationship of food, we design a spreading model of food safety risk, which is about from food producers to consumers in the food supply chain. We use theoretical analysis and numerical simulation to describe the supply-demand relationship and government supervision behaviors' influence on the risk spread of food safety and the behaviors of the food producers and the food retailers. We also analyze the influence of the awareness of consumer rights protection and the level of legal protection of consumer rights on the risk spread of food safety. This model contributes to the explicit investigation of the influence relationship among supply-demand factors, the regulation behavioral choice of government, the behavioral choice of food supply chain members and food safety risk spread. And this paper provides a new viewpoint for considering food safety risk spread in the food supply chain, which has a great reference for food safety management.

  15. A robust optimization model for blood supply chain in emergency situations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meysam Fereiduni

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a multi-period model for blood supply chain in emergency situation is presented to optimize decisions related to locate blood facilities and distribute blood products after natural disasters. In disastrous situations, uncertainty is an inseparable part of humanitarian logistics and blood supply chain as well. This paper proposes a robust network to capture the uncertain nature of blood supply chain during and after disasters. This study considers donor points, blood facilities, processing and testing labs, and hospitals as the components of blood supply chain. In addition, this paper makes location and allocation decisions for multiple post disaster periods through real data. The study compares the performances of “p-robust optimization” approach and “robust optimization” approach and the results are discussed.

  16. APLIKASI MODEL HOUSE OF RISK (HOR UNTUK MITIGASI RISIKO PADA SUPPLY CHAIN BAHAN BAKU KULIT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bayu Rizki Kristanto

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Dalam aktivitas supply chain selalu berpotensi untuk timbul risiko, oleh sebab itu manajemen risiko sangat diperlukan untuk penanganan risiko. Pada perusahaan yang memproduksi sepatu kulit seperti PT. Karyamitra Budisentosa, dalam aktivitas supply chain bahan baku kulit memiliki peluang untuk timbul risiko. Oleh sebab itu perlu dilakukan analisa risiko dan rancangan aksi mitigasi, untuk memitigasi risiko atau gangguan yang berpeluang timbul pada supply chain bahan baku kulit tersebut. Penelitian ini dilakukan dengan menggunakan model house of risk yang terdiri dari 2 fase. Fase pertama yaitu pengidentifikasian risiko dan agen risiko, yang kemudian dilakukan pengukuran tingkat severity dan occurance serta perhitungan nilai aggregate risk priority (ARP. Fase kedua yaitu penanganan risiko. Setelah dilakukan penelitian diperoleh hasil bahwa terdapat 27 kejadian risiko dan 52 agen risiko. Terdapat 6 aksi mitigasi yang dapat digunakan, dengan harapan mampu memitigasi risiko pada supply chain bahan baku kulit.

  17. An Improved Inventory Control Model for the Brazilian Navy Supply System

    Science.gov (United States)

    2001-12-01

    Portuguese Centro de Controle de Inventario da Marinha, the Brazilian Navy Inventory Control Point (ICP) developed an empirical model called SPAADA...NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL Monterey, California THESIS Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited AN IMPROVED INVENTORY CONTROL ...AN IMPROVED INVENTORY CONTROL MODEL FOR THE BRAZILIAN NAVY SUPPLY SYSTEM Contract Number Grant Number Program Element Number Author(s) Moreira

  18. Modeling plan-form deltaic response to changes in fluvial sediment supply

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nienhuis, J.H.; Ashton, A.D.; Roos, Pieter C.; Hulscher, Suzanne J.M.H.; Giosan, L.; Kranenburg, W.M.; Horstman, E.M.; Wijnberg, K.M.

    2012-01-01

    This study focuses on the effects of changes in fluvial sediment supply on the plan-form shape of wave-dominated deltas. We apply a one-line numerical shoreline model to calculate shoreline evolution after (I) elimination and (II) time-periodic variation of fluvial input. Model results suggest four

  19. Applying the International Medical Graduate Program Model to Alleviate the Supply Shortage of Accounting Doctoral Faculty

    Science.gov (United States)

    HassabElnaby, Hassan R.; Dobrzykowski, David D.; Tran, Oanh Thikie

    2012-01-01

    Accounting has been faced with a severe shortage in the supply of qualified doctoral faculty. Drawing upon the international mobility of foreign scholars and the spirit of the international medical graduate program, this article suggests a model to fill the demand in accounting doctoral faculty. The underlying assumption of the suggested model is…

  20. Profiles of fertility, labour supply and wages of married women: a complete life-cycle model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moffitt, R

    1984-01-01

    Trends in fertility and female labor supply have changed dramatically since World War II. Fertility rates rose steadily from the 1940's until the early 1960's and thereafter declined, while female laborforce participation rates have continually grown since the 1950's. These 2 rates are closely linked. Labor supply and fertility decisions are also life-cycle decisions. In addition, wage and job prospects are related to job choice and in turn to fertility decisions. Labor supply, fertility, and wages are linked in an econometric model which takes into account the problems of heterogeneity of tastes, the problem of missing wage rates through nonworking, and the problem of simultaneous-equations bias. Past works are critiqued, mainly on the basis that few analyses recognize the interrelatedness of fertility and labor supply in any sense--static or dynamic. Nor do most researchers consider age-specific fertility equations in analyzing female labor supply. Moffitt's model is a beginning analysis of fertility and labor supply as a joint consumer-demand choice. Patterns of a couple's future consumption, wife's labor supply, and births are assumed to be planned at the beginning of marriage. These patterns depend on the constraints of budget, fertility, and of inverse production (the differing amounts of time it takes to care for a child as the child matures) as well as wage accumulation. Exogenous wealth and beginning wages are considered as well. This model does not account for a woman's work experience prior to marriage. According to the model, fertility rates rise in the 1st year of marriage and subsequently fall off. Employment rates drop off at an accelerating rate until the 6th year of marriage and then increase. A rise in wage level decreases the probability of birth and increases the probability ow working. Also, changes in fertility rates have more to do with wage changes than with a woman's cohort.

  1. Probabilistic modelling of security of supply in gas networks and evaluation of new infrastructure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Praks, Pavel; Kopustinskas, Vytis; Masera, Marcelo

    2015-01-01

    The paper presents a probabilistic model to study security of supply in a gas network. The model is based on Monte-Carlo simulations with graph theory, and is implemented in the software tool ProGasNet. The software allows studying gas networks in various aspects including identification of weakest links and nodes, vulnerability analysis, bottleneck analysis, evaluation of new infrastructure etc. In this paper ProGasNet is applied to a benchmark network based on a real EU gas transmission network of several countries with the purpose of evaluating the security of supply effects of new infrastructure, either under construction, recently completed or under planning. The probabilistic model enables quantitative evaluations by comparing the reliability of gas supply in each consuming node of the network. - Highlights: • A Monte-Carlo algorithm for stochastic flow networks is presented. • Network elements can fail according to a given probabilistic model. • Priority supply pattern of gas transmission networks is assumed. • A real-world EU gas transmission network is presented and analyzed. • A risk ratio is used for security of supply quantification of a new infrastructure.

  2. A Case Study Using Modeling and Simulation to Predict Logistics Supply Chain Issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tucker, David A.

    2007-01-01

    Optimization of critical supply chains to deliver thousands of parts, materials, sub-assemblies, and vehicle structures as needed is vital to the success of the Constellation Program. Thorough analysis needs to be performed on the integrated supply chain processes to plan, source, make, deliver, and return critical items efficiently. Process modeling provides simulation technology-based, predictive solutions for supply chain problems which enable decision makers to reduce costs, accelerate cycle time and improve business performance. For example, United Space Alliance, LLC utilized this approach in late 2006 to build simulation models that recreated shuttle orbiter thruster failures and predicted the potential impact of thruster removals on logistics spare assets. The main objective was the early identification of possible problems in providing thruster spares for the remainder of the Shuttle Flight Manifest. After extensive analysis the model results were used to quantify potential problems and led to improvement actions in the supply chain. Similarly the proper modeling and analysis of Constellation parts, materials, operations, and information flows will help ensure the efficiency of the critical logistics supply chains and the overall success of the program.

  3. Determination of Parameters to Model Seafarers’ Supply in Latvia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberts Gailitis

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The Automatic Identification System (AIS is an important maritime safety device, which is populous in inland rivers. Compared with that in open sea, the Package Error Rate (PER of AIS in inland river has increased sharply due to its complex environment. With the help of hardware in loop simulation, it is possible to make statistical calculation on the PER under a given field strength and describe the data by quadratic rational fraction. Meanwhile, in the three dimensional software environments, the signal field strength is able to be calculated by the ray tracking method, which exhausts all the possible propagation paths, including direct way, reflection, diffractions, and the other medium attenuation matters. Beyond that, in the model, the propagation geography information in inland rivers is required to be simplified in some way, or the computation of the ray tracking is too hard to get. The paper set the Changjiang Wuhan channel as the field testing region, and all the deviations are less than 5% in sunny weather, which proves the method accurate and effective.

  4. A decision model for cost effective design of biomass based green energy supply chains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yılmaz Balaman, Şebnem; Selim, Hasan

    2015-09-01

    The core driver of this study is to deal with the design of anaerobic digestion based biomass to energy supply chains in a cost effective manner. In this concern, a decision model is developed. The model is based on fuzzy multi objective decision making in order to simultaneously optimize multiple economic objectives and tackle the inherent uncertainties in the parameters and decision makers' aspiration levels for the goals. The viability of the decision model is explored with computational experiments on a real-world biomass to energy supply chain and further analyses are performed to observe the effects of different conditions. To this aim, scenario analyses are conducted to investigate the effects of energy crop utilization and operational costs on supply chain structure and performance measures. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Modelling a sector undergoing structural change: The case of Danish energy supply

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Klinge Jacobsen, Henrik

    2000-01-01

    for the demand of the produced goods. Environmental priorities and targets for emission reductions are important for defining energy policy in Denmark. As the energy supply sector at present is a major contributor to emissions of CO2 and SO2, knowledge of this sector is vital for reducing these emissions......This paper examines structural change in the power and heat producing sector (energy supply) and its implications for the economy. An integrated approach is used to describe the interactions between this sector and the rest of the economy. Thus, a very detailed model of the sector for Denmark has...... been linked to a macroeconometric model of the Danish economy. It is argued that analysing sectors that undergo radical changes, for example, the energy supply sector should be undertaken by using a model that describes the technological and organisational changes in production along with implications...

  6. A supply function model for representing the strategic bidding of the producers in constrained electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bompard, Ettore; Napoli, Roberto; Lu, Wene; Jiang, Xiuchen

    2010-01-01

    The modeling of the bidding behaviour of the producer is a key-point in the modeling and simulation of the competitive electricity markets. In our paper, the linear supply function model is applied so as to find the Supply Function Equilibrium analytically. It also proposed a new and efficient approach to find SFEs for the network constrained electricity markets by finding the best slope of the supply function with the help of changing the intercept, and the method can be applied on the large systems. The approach proposed is applied to study IEEE-118 bus test systems and the comparison between bidding slope and bidding intercept is presented, as well, with reference to the test system. (author)

  7. Simulation-optimization model for production planning in the blood supply chain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osorio, Andres F; Brailsford, Sally C; Smith, Honora K; Forero-Matiz, Sonia P; Camacho-Rodríguez, Bernardo A

    2017-12-01

    Production planning in the blood supply chain is a challenging task. Many complex factors such as uncertain supply and demand, blood group proportions, shelf life constraints and different collection and production methods have to be taken into account, and thus advanced methodologies are required for decision making. This paper presents an integrated simulation-optimization model to support both strategic and operational decisions in production planning. Discrete-event simulation is used to represent the flows through the supply chain, incorporating collection, production, storing and distribution. On the other hand, an integer linear optimization model running over a rolling planning horizon is used to support daily decisions, such as the required number of donors, collection methods and production planning. This approach is evaluated using real data from a blood center in Colombia. The results show that, using the proposed model, key indicators such as shortages, outdated units, donors required and cost are improved.

  8. Example models of building trust in supply chains of metalurgical enterprises

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Gajdzik

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available The article is an introduction to the notion of building trust in supply chains. Foreign publishers offer many articles connected with trust and some of the most important ones were quoted in this article. In business world there are models based on trust of the companies which are connected with one another and such models are very popular. Trust becomes the key link in the organisation of supply chains. It is one of the basic mechanisms of action co-ordination which provides the correctness of functioning in the whole chain. The growth of importance of trust between the links of the chain is also observed in metallurgy sector. For the purpose of this publication example models of supply chains structures were constructed in which relationships are based on mutual trust with characteristics of the metallurgical sector taken into account.

  9. Receptor modeling of C2─C7 hydrocarbon sources at an urban background site in Zurich, Switzerland: changes between 1993─1994 and 2005─2006

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Reimann

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available Hourly measurements of 13 volatile hydrocarbons (C2–C7 were performed at an urban background site in Zurich (Switzerland in the years 1993–1994 and again in 2005–2006. For the separation of the volatile organic compounds by gas-chromatography (GC, an identical chromatographic column was used in both campaigns. Changes in hydrocarbon profiles and source strengths were recovered by positive matrix factorization (PMF. Eight and six factors could be related to hydrocarbon sources in 1993–1994 and in 2005–2006, respectively. The modeled source profiles were verified by hydrocarbon profiles reported in the literature. The source strengths were validated by independent measurements, such as inorganic trace gases (NOx, CO, SO2, methane (CH4, oxidized hydrocarbons (OVOCs and meteorological data (temperature, wind speed etc.. Our analysis suggests that the contribution of most hydrocarbon sources (i.e. road traffic, solvents use and wood burning decreased by a factor of about two to three between the early 1990s and 2005–2006. On the other hand, hydrocarbon losses from natural gas leakage remained at relatively constant levels (−20%. The estimated emission trends are in line with the results from different receptor-based approaches reported for other European cities. Their differences to national emission inventories are discussed.

  10. Modelling the Effects of Parking Charge and Supply Policy Using System Dynamics Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhenyu Mei

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Reasonable parking charge and supply policy are essential for the regular operation of the traffic in city center. This paper develops an evaluation model for parking policies using system dynamics. A quantitative study is conducted to examine the effects of parking charge and supply policy on traffic speed. The model, which is composed of three interrelated subsystems, first summarizes the travel cost of each travel mode and then calibrates the travel choice model through the travel mode subsystem. Finally, the subsystem that evaluates the state of traffic forecasts future car speed based on bureau of public roads (BPR function and generates new travel cost until the entire model reaches a steady state. The accuracy of the model is verified in Hangzhou Wulin business district. The related error of predicted speed is only 2.2%. The results indicate that the regular pattern of traffic speed and parking charge can be illustrated using the proposed model based on system dynamics, and the model infers that reducing the parking supply in core area will increase its congestion level and, under certain parking supply conditions, there exists an interval of possible pricing at which the service reaches a level that is fairly stable.

  11. DESIGNING A SUPPLY CHAIN MODEL WITH CONSIDERATION DEMAND FORECASTING AND INFORMATION SHARING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.M.T. Fatemi Ghomi

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available

    ENGLISH ABSTRACT: In traditional supply chain inventory management, orders are the only information firms exchange, but information technology now allows firms to share demand and inventory data quickly and inexpensively. To have an integrated plan, a manufacturer not only needs to know demand information from its customers but also supply information from its suppliers. In this paper, information flow is incorporated in a three-echelon supply chain model. Also to decrease the risk of the supply chain system, the customers’ demands are predicted first and this prediction is then used as an input to the supply chain model. In this paper a proposed evolving fuzzy predictor model will be used to predict the customers’ demands. For solving the supply chain model, a hybrid heuristic combining tabu search with simulated annealing sharing the same tabu list is developed.

    AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: In tradisionele voorsieningskettingvoorraadbestuur verteenwoordig bestellings die enigste vorm van van inligting wat deur ondernemings uitgeruil word. Inligtingstegnologie laat ondernemings egter deesdae toe om vraag- en voorraadata vinnig en goedkoop uit te ruil. Om 'n geïntegreerde plan te hê, het 'n vervaardiger nie alleen aanvraaginligting nodig van sy klante nie, maar ook aanbodinligting van sy leweransiers. In hierdie artikel word inligtingvloei geinkorporeer in 'n drie-vlakvoorsieningskettingmodel. Voorts, om die risiko in die voorsieningskettingmodel te verminder, word die klante se aanvraag eers vooruitgeskat en die vooruitskatting word dan gebruik as 'n inset tot die model. Hierdie artikel gebruik 'n groeiende wasige vooruitskattingsmodel om die klantebehoeftes voor uit te skat. Om die model op te los, word 'n hibriede heuristiese metode gekombineer met 'n "tabu"-soektog gebruik.

  12. Network design and operational modelling for construction green supply chain management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pengfei Zhou Dong Chen

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on studying organizational structure of Construction Green Supply Chain Management (CGSCM, a mathematical programming model of CGSCM was proposed. The model aimed to maximize the aggregate profits of normalized construction logistics, the reverse logistics and the environmental performance. Numerical experiments show that the proposed approach can improve the aggregate profit effectively. In addition, return ratio, subsidies from governmental organizations, and environmental performance were analyzed for CGSCM performance. Herein, the proper return, subsidy and control strategy could optimize construction green supply chain.

  13. Mixed Integer Linear Programming model for Crude Palm Oil Supply Chain Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sembiring, Pasukat; Mawengkang, Herman; Sadyadharma, Hendaru; Bu'ulolo, F.; Fajriana

    2018-01-01

    The production process of crude palm oil (CPO) can be defined as the milling process of raw materials, called fresh fruit bunch (FFB) into end products palm oil. The process usually through a series of steps producing and consuming intermediate products. The CPO milling industry considered in this paper does not have oil palm plantation, therefore the FFB are supplied by several public oil palm plantations. Due to the limited availability of FFB, then it is necessary to choose from which plantations would be appropriate. This paper proposes a mixed integer linear programming model the supply chain integrated problem, which include waste processing. The mathematical programming model is solved using neighborhood search approach.

  14. Coopetitive Supply Chain Relationship Model: Application to the Smartphone Manufacturing Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwok, Jeremy Jie Ming; Lee, Dong-Yup

    2015-01-01

    Previous researches for understanding supply chain relationship have mostly focused on its vertical collaboration between buyers and suppliers. However, there have been some instances of volatile and stable collaborative relationships amongst competitors such as Apple-Samsung product manufacturer-component supplier relationship and airline alliances, respectively, which is recognized as coopetition. Even though there have been several qualitative studies and a number of game theory models on coopetition, it is rare to find any attempts on quantitative characterization of such coopetitive dynamic behavior in supply chain relationship. Hence, in this work, we formulated a MINLP model mathematically representing coopetitive relationships in a cost efficient supply chain network. In particular, the coopetition factor was newly introduced to measure the degree of coopetition among supply chain players and determine the optimal level of coopetition to engage in. The utility and practicality of the model were strongly demonstrated using a case study of a hypothetical smartphone supply chain network under different scenarios, thus proposing their strategically viable optimal interactions. Therefore, this exploratory study can herald a new era of global coopetitive business. PMID:26186227

  15. Coopetitive Supply Chain Relationship Model: Application to the Smartphone Manufacturing Network.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeremy Jie Ming Kwok

    Full Text Available Previous researches for understanding supply chain relationship have mostly focused on its vertical collaboration between buyers and suppliers. However, there have been some instances of volatile and stable collaborative relationships amongst competitors such as Apple-Samsung product manufacturer-component supplier relationship and airline alliances, respectively, which is recognized as coopetition. Even though there have been several qualitative studies and a number of game theory models on coopetition, it is rare to find any attempts on quantitative characterization of such coopetitive dynamic behavior in supply chain relationship. Hence, in this work, we formulated a MINLP model mathematically representing coopetitive relationships in a cost efficient supply chain network. In particular, the coopetition factor was newly introduced to measure the degree of coopetition among supply chain players and determine the optimal level of coopetition to engage in. The utility and practicality of the model were strongly demonstrated using a case study of a hypothetical smartphone supply chain network under different scenarios, thus proposing their strategically viable optimal interactions. Therefore, this exploratory study can herald a new era of global coopetitive business.

  16. Coopetitive Supply Chain Relationship Model: Application to the Smartphone Manufacturing Network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwok, Jeremy Jie Ming; Lee, Dong-Yup

    2015-01-01

    Previous researches for understanding supply chain relationship have mostly focused on its vertical collaboration between buyers and suppliers. However, there have been some instances of volatile and stable collaborative relationships amongst competitors such as Apple-Samsung product manufacturer-component supplier relationship and airline alliances, respectively, which is recognized as coopetition. Even though there have been several qualitative studies and a number of game theory models on coopetition, it is rare to find any attempts on quantitative characterization of such coopetitive dynamic behavior in supply chain relationship. Hence, in this work, we formulated a MINLP model mathematically representing coopetitive relationships in a cost efficient supply chain network. In particular, the coopetition factor was newly introduced to measure the degree of coopetition among supply chain players and determine the optimal level of coopetition to engage in. The utility and practicality of the model were strongly demonstrated using a case study of a hypothetical smartphone supply chain network under different scenarios, thus proposing their strategically viable optimal interactions. Therefore, this exploratory study can herald a new era of global coopetitive business.

  17. Simulation Modeling of Resilience Assessment in Indonesian Fertiliser Industry Supply Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Utami, I. D.; Holt, R. J.; McKay, A.

    2018-01-01

    Supply network resilience is a significant aspect in the performance of the Indonesian fertiliser industry. Decision makers use risk assessment and port management reports to evaluate the availability of infrastructure. An opportunity was identified to incorporate both types of data into an approach for the measurement of resilience. A framework, based on a synthesis of literature and interviews with industry practitioners, covering both social and technical factors is introduced. A simulation model was then built to allow managers to explore implications for resilience and predict levels of risk in different scenarios. Result of interview with respondens from Indonesian fertiliser industry indicated that the simulation model could be valuable in the assessment. This paper provides details of the simulation model for decision makers to explore levels of risk in supply networks. For practitioners, the model could be used by government to assess the current condition of supply networks in Indonesian industries. On the other hand, for academia, the approach provides a new application of agent-based models in research on supply network resilience and presents a real example of how agent-based modeling could be used as to support the assessment approach.

  18. An Innovative Interactive Modeling Tool to Analyze Scenario-Based Physician Workforce Supply and Demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Saurabh; Black-Schaffer, W. Stephen; Crawford, James M.; Gross, David; Karcher, Donald S.; Kaufman, Jill; Knapman, Doug; Prystowsky, Michael B.; Wheeler, Thomas M.; Bean, Sarah; Kumar, Paramhans; Sharma, Raghav; Chamoli, Vaibhav; Ghai, Vikrant; Gogia, Vineet; Weintraub, Sally; Cohen, Michael B.

    2015-01-01

    Effective physician workforce management requires that the various organizations comprising the House of Medicine be able to assess their current and future workforce supply. This information has direct relevance to funding of graduate medical education. We describe a dynamic modeling tool that examines how individual factors and practice variables can be used to measure and forecast the supply and demand for existing and new physician services. The system we describe, while built to analyze the pathologist workforce, is sufficiently broad and robust for use in any medical specialty. Our design provides a computer-based software model populated with data from surveys and best estimates by specialty experts about current and new activities in the scope of practice. The model describes the steps needed and data required for analysis of supply and demand. Our modeling tool allows educators and policy makers, in addition to physician specialty organizations, to assess how various factors may affect demand (and supply) of current and emerging services. Examples of factors evaluated include types of professional services (3 categories with 16 subcategories), service locations, elements related to the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, new technologies, aging population, and changing roles in capitated, value-based, and team-based systems of care. The model also helps identify where physicians in a given specialty will likely need to assume new roles, develop new expertise, and become more efficient in practice to accommodate new value-based payment models. PMID:28725751

  19. An Innovative Interactive Modeling Tool to Analyze Scenario-Based Physician Workforce Supply and Demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saurabh Gupta BPharm

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Effective physician workforce management requires that the various organizations comprising the House of Medicine be able to assess their current and future workforce supply. This information has direct relevance to funding of graduate medical education. We describe a dynamic modeling tool that examines how individual factors and practice variables can be used to measure and forecast the supply and demand for existing and new physician services. The system we describe, while built to analyze the pathologist workforce, is sufficiently broad and robust for use in any medical specialty. Our design provides a computer-based software model populated with data from surveys and best estimates by specialty experts about current and new activities in the scope of practice. The model describes the steps needed and data required for analysis of supply and demand. Our modeling tool allows educators and policy makers, in addition to physician specialty organizations, to assess how various factors may affect demand (and supply of current and emerging services. Examples of factors evaluated include types of professional services (3 categories with 16 subcategories, service locations, elements related to the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, new technologies, aging population, and changing roles in capitated, value-based, and team-based systems of care. The model also helps identify where physicians in a given specialty will likely need to assume new roles, develop new expertise, and become more efficient in practice to accommodate new value-based payment models.

  20. An Innovative Interactive Modeling Tool to Analyze Scenario-Based Physician Workforce Supply and Demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Saurabh; Black-Schaffer, W Stephen; Crawford, James M; Gross, David; Karcher, Donald S; Kaufman, Jill; Knapman, Doug; Prystowsky, Michael B; Wheeler, Thomas M; Bean, Sarah; Kumar, Paramhans; Sharma, Raghav; Chamoli, Vaibhav; Ghai, Vikrant; Gogia, Vineet; Weintraub, Sally; Cohen, Michael B; Robboy, Stanley J

    2015-01-01

    Effective physician workforce management requires that the various organizations comprising the House of Medicine be able to assess their current and future workforce supply. This information has direct relevance to funding of graduate medical education. We describe a dynamic modeling tool that examines how individual factors and practice variables can be used to measure and forecast the supply and demand for existing and new physician services. The system we describe, while built to analyze the pathologist workforce, is sufficiently broad and robust for use in any medical specialty. Our design provides a computer-based software model populated with data from surveys and best estimates by specialty experts about current and new activities in the scope of practice. The model describes the steps needed and data required for analysis of supply and demand. Our modeling tool allows educators and policy makers, in addition to physician specialty organizations, to assess how various factors may affect demand (and supply) of current and emerging services. Examples of factors evaluated include types of professional services (3 categories with 16 subcategories), service locations, elements related to the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, new technologies, aging population, and changing roles in capitated, value-based, and team-based systems of care. The model also helps identify where physicians in a given specialty will likely need to assume new roles, develop new expertise, and become more efficient in practice to accommodate new value-based payment models.

  1. Natural gas supply in Denmark - A model of natural gas transmission and the liberalized gas market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bregnbaek, L.

    2005-01-01

    In the wake of the liberalization of European energy markets a large area of research has spawned. This area includes the development of mathematical models to analyze the impact of liberalization with respect to efficiency, supply security and environment, to name but a few subjects. This project describes the development of such a model. In Denmark the parallel liberalization of the markets of natural gas and electricity and the existence of an abundance of de-centralized combined heat and power generators of which most are natural gas fired, leads to the natural assumption that the future holds a greater deal of interdependency for these markets. A model is developed describing network flows in the natural gas transmission system, the main arteries of natural gas supply, from a technical viewpoint. This yields a technical bounding on the supply available in different parts of the country. Additionally the economic structure of the Danish natural gas market is formulated mathematically giving a description of the transmission, distribution and storage options available to the market. The supply and demand of natural gas is put into a partial equilibrium context by integrating the developed model with the Balmorel model, which describes the markets for electricity and district heat. Specifically on the demand side the consumption of natural gas for heat and power generation is emphasized. General results and three demonstration cases are presented to illustrate how the developed model can be used to analyze various energy policy issues, and to disclose the strengths and weaknesses in the formulation. (au)

  2. An analysis of Belgian Cannabis Social Clubs' supply practices: A shapeshifting model?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pardal, Mafalda

    2018-04-13

    Cannabis Social Clubs (CSCs) are associations of cannabis users that collectively organize the cultivation and distribution of cannabis. As this middle ground supply model has been active in Belgium for over a decade, this paper aims to examine CSCs' supply practices, noting any shifts from previously reported features of the model. We draw on interviews with directors of seven currently active Belgian CSCs (n = 21) and their cannabis growers (n = 23). This data was complemented by additional fieldwork, as well as a review of CSCs' key internal documents. Most Belgian CSCs are formally registered non-profit associations. One of the Belgian CSCs has developed a structure of sub-divisions and regional chapters. The Belgian CSCs supply cannabis to members only, and in some cases only medical users are admitted. CSCs rely on in-house growers, ensuring supply in a cooperative and closed-circuit way, despite changes to the distribution methods The associations are relatively small-scale and non-commercially driven. The introduction of formal quality control practices remains challenging. As the CSC model is often included in discussions about cannabis policy, but remains in most cases driven by self-regulatory efforts, it is important to take stock of how CSCs' supply function has been implemented in practice - as doing so will improve our understanding of the model and of the wider range of cannabis 'supply architectures'. This paper highlights the continuity and changes in CSC practices, noting the emergence of several different variants of the CSC model, which are classified in a first CSC typology. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Identifying the optimal supply temperature in district heating networks - A modelling approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mohammadi, Soma; Bojesen, Carsten

    2014-01-01

    of this study is to develop a model for thermo-hydraulic calculation of low temperature DH system. The modelling is performed with emphasis on transient heat transfer in pipe networks. The pseudo-dynamic approach is adopted to model the District Heating Network [DHN] behaviour which estimates the temperature...... dynamically while the flow and pressure are calculated on the basis of steady state conditions. The implicit finite element method is applied to simulate the transient temperature behaviour in the network. Pipe network heat losses, pressure drop in the network and return temperature to the plant...... are calculated in the developed model. The model will serve eventually as a basis to find out the optimal supply temperature in an existing DHN in later work. The modelling results are used as decision support for existing DHN; proposing possible modifications to operate at optimal supply temperature....

  4. Scenario optimization modeling approach for design and management of biomass-to-biorefinery supply chain system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Bhavna; Ingalls, Ricki G; Jones, Carol L; Huhnke, Raymond L; Khanchi, Amit

    2013-12-01

    The aim of this study was to develop a scenario optimization model to address weather uncertainty in the Biomass Supply Chain (BSC). The modeling objective was to minimize the cost of biomass supply to biorefineries over a one-year planning period using monthly time intervals under different weather scenarios. The model is capable of making strategic, tactical and operational decisions related to BSC system. The performance of the model was demonstrated through a case study developed for Abengoa biorefinery in Kansas. Sensitivity analysis was done to demonstrate the effect of input uncertainty in yield, land rent and storage dry matter loss on the model outputs. The model results show that available harvest work hours influence major cost-related decisions in the BSC. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Applying Fuzzy Multiobjective Integrated Logistics Model to Green Supply Chain Problems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chui-Yu Chiu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is attempting to explore the optimal way of supply chain management within the domain of environmental responsibility and concerns. The background of this research involves the issue of green supply chain management (GSCM and the concept of the multiobjective integrated logistics model. More specifically, in this paper, we suggest the fuzzy multiobjective integrated logistics model with the transportation cost and demand fuzziness to solve green supply chain problems in the uncertain environment which is illustrated via the detailed numerical example. Results and the sensitivity analysis of the numerical example indicate that when the governmental subsidy value increased the profits of the reverse chain also increased. The finding shows that the governmental subsidy policy could remain of significant influence for used-product reverse logistics chain.

  6. Multi-scale process and supply chain modelling: from lignocellulosic feedstock to process and products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hosseini, Seyed Ali; Shah, Nilay

    2011-04-06

    There is a large body of literature regarding the choice and optimization of different processes for converting feedstock to bioethanol and bio-commodities; moreover, there has been some reasonable technological development in bioconversion methods over the past decade. However, the eventual cost and other important metrics relating to sustainability of biofuel production will be determined not only by the performance of the conversion process, but also by the performance of the entire supply chain from feedstock production to consumption. Moreover, in order to ensure world-class biorefinery performance, both the network and the individual components must be designed appropriately, and allocation of resources over the resulting infrastructure must effectively be performed. The goal of this work is to describe the key challenges in bioenergy supply chain modelling and then to develop a framework and methodology to show how multi-scale modelling can pave the way to answer holistic supply chain questions, such as the prospects for second generation bioenergy crops.

  7. Modelling supply and demand of bioenergy from short rotation coppice and Miscanthus in the UK.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauen, A W; Dunnett, A J; Richter, G M; Dailey, A G; Aylott, M; Casella, E; Taylor, G

    2010-11-01

    Biomass from lignocellulosic energy crops can contribute to primary energy supply in the short term in heat and electricity applications and in the longer term in transport fuel applications. This paper estimates the optimal feedstock allocation of herbaceous and woody lignocellulosic energy crops for England and Wales based on empirical productivity models. Yield maps for Miscanthus, willow and poplar, constrained by climatic, soil and land use factors, are used to estimate the potential resource. An energy crop supply-cost curve is estimated based on the resource distribution and associated production costs. The spatial resource model is then used to inform the supply of biomass to geographically distributed demand centres, with co-firing plants used as an illustration. Finally, the potential contribution of energy crops to UK primary energy and renewable energy targets is discussed. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Potential supply system for uranium based upon a crustal abundance model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chavez-Martinez, M.L.

    1982-01-01

    The design of a computerized system for the estimation of uranium potential supply in the US was the primary objective of this study. Once completed, this system performs for various levels of economic variables, such as prices and estimation of potential uranium supply, without requiring the appraisal by geologists, area by area, of undiscovered uranium endowment. The main components that form the system are explicit models of endowment, exploration, and production. These component models are derived from engineering and geological data, and together, they comprise the system. This system is unique in that it likes physical attributes of endowment to time series of price and production. This linkage is made by simulating the activities of the US uranium industry, activities (exploration, mine development, and production) that are involved in the transformation of endowment to potential supply

  9. Modelling consumer demand and household labour supply: Welfare effects of increasing carbon taxes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Braennlund, R.; Nordstroem, J.

    2001-01-01

    The main objective of this paper is to analyse consumer response and welfare effects due to changes in energy or environmental policy. To achieve this objective we formulate and estimate an econometric model for non-durable consumer demand in Sweden that utilises micro- and macro-data. In the demand model male and female labour supply is included as conditioning goods. To account for possible changes in labour supply due to increasing carbon taxes we estimate separate labour supply functions for men and women. In the simulations we consider two revenue neutral scenarios that both imply a doubling of the CO 2 tax; one that returns the revenues in the form of a lower VAT and one that subsidise public transport. One conclusion from the simulations is that the CO 2 tax has regional distribution effects, in the sense that household living in sparsely populated areas carry a larger share of the tax burden

  10. Estimating future dental services' demand and supply: a model for Northern Germany.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jäger, Ralf; van den Berg, Neeltje; Hoffmann, Wolfgang; Jordan, Rainer A; Schwendicke, Falk

    2016-04-01

    To plan dental services, a spatial estimation of future demands and supply is required. We aimed at estimating demand and supply in 2030 in Northern Germany based on the expected local socio-demography and oral-health-related morbidity, and the predicted number of dentists and their working time. All analyses were performed on zip-code level. Register data were used to determine the number of retiring dentists and to construct regression models for estimating the number of dentists moving into each zip-code area until 2030. Demand was modelled using projected demography and morbidities. Demand-supply ratios were evaluated and spatial analyses applied. Sensitivity analyses were employed to assess robustness of our findings. Compared with 2011, the population decreased (-7% to -11%) and aged (from mean 46 to 51 years) until 2030. Oral-health-related morbidity changed, leading to more periodontal and fewer prosthetic treatments needs, with the overall demand decreasing in all scenarios (-25% to -33%). In contrast, the overall number of dentists did only limitedly change, resulting in moderate decrease in the supplied service quantities (max. -22%). Thus, the demand-supply ratio increased in all but the worst case scenario, but was unequally distributed between spatial units, with several areas being over- and some being under- or none-serviced in 2030. Within the limitations of the underlying data and the required assumptions, this study expects an increasingly polarized ratio of dental services demand and supply in Northern Germany. Our estimation allows to assess the impact of different influence factors on demand or supply and to specifically identify potential challenges for workforce planning and regulation in different spatial units. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. Hybrid supply chain model for material requirement planning under financial constraints: A case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curci, Vita; Dassisti, Michele; Josefa, Mula Bru; Manuel, Díaz Madroñero

    2014-10-01

    Supply chain model (SCM) are potentially capable to integrate different aspects in supporting decision making for enterprise management tasks. The aim of the paper is to propose an hybrid mathematical programming model for optimization of production requirements resources planning. The preliminary model was conceived bottom-up from a real industrial case analysed oriented to maximize cash flow. Despite the intense computational effort required to converge to a solution, optimisation done brought good result in solving the objective function.

  12. The chaos and control of a food chain model supplying additional food to top-predator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sahoo, Banshidhar; Poria, Swarup

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • We propose a chaotic food chain model supplying additional food to top-predator. • Local and global stability conditions are derived in presence of additional food. • Chaos is controlled only by increasing quantity of additional food. • System enters into periodic region and depicts Hopf bifurcations supplying additional food. • This an application of non-chemical methods for controlling chaos. -- Abstract: The control and management of chaotic population is one of the main objectives for constructing mathematical model in ecology today. In this paper, we apply a technique of controlling chaotic predator–prey population dynamics by supplying additional food to top-predator. We formulate a three species predator–prey model supplying additional food to top-predator. Existence conditions and local stability criteria of equilibrium points are determined analytically. Persistence conditions for the system are derived. Global stability conditions of interior equilibrium point is calculated. Theoretical results are verified through numerical simulations. Phase diagram is presented for various quality and quantity of additional food. One parameter bifurcation analysis is done with respect to quality and quantity of additional food separately keeping one of them fixed. Using MATCONT package, we derive the bifurcation scenarios when both the parameters quality and quantity of additional food vary together. We predict the existence of Hopf point (H), limit point (LP) and branch point (BP) in the model for suitable supply of additional food. We have computed the regions of different dynamical behaviour in the quantity–quality parametric plane. From our study we conclude that chaotic population dynamics of predator prey system can be controlled to obtain regular population dynamics only by supplying additional food to top predator. This study is aimed to introduce a new non-chemical chaos control mechanism in a predator–prey system with the

  13. The generalized model of organization and planning of regional gas supply monitoring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria V. Shevchenko

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available At the moment, gas is one of the most promising types of fuel in Ukraine. In this regard, the problems associated with its transportation in the regional system of gas supply are relevant. Now it is not completely solved and needs detailed study the problem of monitoring the regional gas supply system. Aim: The aim of the study is to improve the efficiency of the regional gas supply system at the expense of the organization and planning of gas transport monitoring and, in the future, the synthesis of the monitoring system of regional gas supply. Materials and Methods: The generalized model of organization and planning of monitoring regional gas suppliers were developed to achieve this goal. It allows making decisions on the organization of the monitoring system. In addition, this model makes it possible to plan under conditions of multicriteriality and uncertainty of the source data. Results: The basic criteria and constraints for solving the problem of organizing and planning the monitoring system of regional gas supply are proposed in this work. The corresponding computations were made to confirm the assumptions. The calculations were carried out in context of uncertainty of input data using a set of methods for the analysis of hierarchies, exhaustive search, as well as the methods of decision making in context of uncertainty.

  14. Optimization models of the supply of power structures’ organizational units with centralized procurement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sysoiev Volodymyr

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Management of the state power structures’ organizational units for materiel and technical support requires the use of effective tools for supporting decisions, due to the complexity, interdependence, and dynamism of supply in the market economy. The corporate nature of power structures is of particular interest to centralized procurement management, as it provides significant advantages through coordination, eliminating duplication, and economy of scale. This article presents optimization models of the supply of state power structures’ organizational units with centralized procurement, for different levels of simulated materiel and technical support processes. The models allow us to find the most profitable options for state power structures’ organizational supply units in a centre-oriented logistics system in conditions of the changing needs, volume of allocated funds, and logistics costs that accompany the process of supply, by maximizing the provision level of organizational units with necessary material and technical resources for the entire planning period of supply by minimizing the total logistical costs, taking into account the diverse nature and the different priorities of organizational units and material and technical resources.

  15. Simulation model of multi-compartment distribution in the catering supply chain

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jansen, D.R.; Weert, van A.; Beulens, A.J.M.; Huirne, R.B.M.

    2001-01-01

    An efficient distribution system of high performance is needed to anticipate market developments in the catering supply chain (CSC) in the Netherlands. A simulation model was developed to analyse a multi-compartment distribution system which should satisfy customer demands for shorter lead times,

  16. Business Process Modelling in Demand-Driven Agri-Food Supply Chains

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verdouw, C.N.; Beulens, A.J.M.; Trienekens, J.H.; Wolfert, J.

    2010-01-01

    Agri-food companies increasingly participate in demand-driven supply chains that are able to adapt flexibly to changes in the marketplace. The objective of this presentation is to discuss a process modelling framework, which enhances the interoperability and agility of information systems as

  17. Generalized Simulation Model for a Switched-Mode Power Supply Design Course Using MATLAB/SIMULINK

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, Wei-Hsin; Wang, Shun-Chung; Liu, Yi-Hua

    2012-01-01

    Switched-mode power supplies (SMPS) are becoming an essential part of many electronic systems as the industry drives toward miniaturization and energy efficiency. However, practical SMPS design courses are seldom offered. In this paper, a generalized MATLAB/SIMULINK modeling technique is first presented. A proposed practical SMPS design course at…

  18. Addressing stakeholder conflicts in rural South Africa using a water supply model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D' Hont, F.M.; Clifford-Holmes, J.K.; Slinger, J.H.

    2013-01-01

    A system dynamics modelling approach is adopted to deepen understanding of the effects of operational management on the performance of the Greater Kirkwood water supply system in South Africa. Currently, the interrupted operation of the system has led to perceptions of systemic social injustice on

  19. On A Two-Stage Supply Chain Model In The Manufacturing Industry ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    We model a two-stage supply chain where the upstream stage (stage 2) always meet demand from the downstream stage (stage 1).Demand is stochastic hence shortages will occasionally occur at stage 2. Stage 2 must fill these shortages by expediting using overtime production and/or backordering. We derive optimal ...

  20. Model simulation of the Manasquan water-supply system in Monmouth County, New Jersey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Ming; Tasker, Gary D.; Nieswand, Steven

    2001-01-01

    Model simulation of the Manasquan Water Supply System in Monmouth County, New Jersey, was completed using historic hydrologic data to evaluate the effects of operational and withdrawal alternatives on the Manasquan reservoir and pumping system. Changes in the system operations can be simulated with the model using precipitation forecasts. The Manasquan Reservoir system model operates by using daily streamflow values, which were reconstructed from historical U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging station records. The model is able to run in two modes--General Risk analysis Model (GRAM) and Position Analysis Model (POSA). The GRAM simulation procedure uses reconstructed historical streamflow records to provide probability estimates of certain events, such as reservoir storage levels declining below a specific level, when given an assumed set of operating rules and withdrawal rates. POSA can be used to forecast the likelihood of specified outcomes, such as streamflows falling below statutory passing flows, associated with a specific working plan for the water-supply system over a period of months. The user can manipulate the model and generate graphs and tables of streamflows and storage, for example. This model can be used as a management tool to facilitate the development of drought warning and drought emergency rule curves and safe yield values for the water-supply system.

  1. Use of multilevel modeling for determining optimal parameters of heat supply systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stennikov, V. A.; Barakhtenko, E. A.; Sokolov, D. V.

    2017-07-01

    The problem of finding optimal parameters of a heat-supply system (HSS) is in ensuring the required throughput capacity of a heat network by determining pipeline diameters and characteristics and location of pumping stations. Effective methods for solving this problem, i.e., the method of stepwise optimization based on the concept of dynamic programming and the method of multicircuit optimization, were proposed in the context of the hydraulic circuit theory developed at Melentiev Energy Systems Institute (Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences). These methods enable us to determine optimal parameters of various types of piping systems due to flexible adaptability of the calculation procedure to intricate nonlinear mathematical models describing features of used equipment items and methods of their construction and operation. The new and most significant results achieved in developing methodological support and software for finding optimal parameters of complex heat supply systems are presented: a new procedure for solving the problem based on multilevel decomposition of a heat network model that makes it possible to proceed from the initial problem to a set of interrelated, less cumbersome subproblems with reduced dimensionality; a new algorithm implementing the method of multicircuit optimization and focused on the calculation of a hierarchical model of a heat supply system; the SOSNA software system for determining optimum parameters of intricate heat-supply systems and implementing the developed methodological foundation. The proposed procedure and algorithm enable us to solve engineering problems of finding the optimal parameters of multicircuit heat supply systems having large (real) dimensionality, and are applied in solving urgent problems related to the optimal development and reconstruction of these systems. The developed methodological foundation and software can be used for designing heat supply systems in the Central and the Admiralty regions in

  2. H∞ Control of Supply Chain Based on Switched Model of Stock Level

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junzhi Luo

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper is concerned with the problem of H∞ control for a class of discrete supply chain systems. A new method based on network control technique is presented to address this issue. Supply chain systems are modeled as networked systems with stochastic time delay. Sufficient conditions for H∞ controller design are given in terms of a set of linear matrix inequalities, based on which the mean-square asymptotic stability as well as H∞ performance is satisfied for such systems. Simulation results are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  3. The Life Cycle Evaluation Model of External Diseconomy of Open-loop Supply Chain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Qian; Hu, Tianjun

    2017-08-01

    In recent years, with the continuous deterioration of pollution, resource space is gradually narrowed, the number of waste items increased, people began to use the method of recycling on waste products to ease the pressure on the environment. This paper adopted the external diseconomy of open-loop supply chain as the research object and constructed the model by the life cycle evaluation method, comparative analysis through the case. This paper also concludes that the key to solving the problem is to realize the closed-loop supply chain and building reverse logistics system is of great significance.

  4. Differential Dynamic Evolutionary Model of Emergency Financial Service Supply Chain in Natural Disaster Risk Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shujian Ma

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A government-market-public partnership (GMPP could be a feasible arrangement for providing insurance coverage for natural disaster. Firstly, we put forward GMPP management mode. Secondly, the emergency financial service supply chain for natural disaster risk is built from the view of supply chain. Finally, the objective of this paper is to obtain insights into the cooperative and competitive relationship in GMPP system. We establish the cooperative and competitive differential dynamic evolutionary models and prove the existence of equilibrium solutions in order to solve the coordination problems. In conclusion, the equilibrium solutions can be achieved among the insurers, the operating governments, and the public.

  5. Process modelling in demand-driven supply chains: A reference model for the fruit industry

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verdouw, C.N.; Beulens, A.J.M.; Trienekens, J.H.; Wolfert, J.

    2010-01-01

    The growing importance of health in consumption is expected to result in a significant increase of European fruit demand. However, the current fruit supply does not yet sufficiently meet demand requirements. This urges fruit supply chains to become more demand-driven, that is, able to continuously

  6. Modeling the resilience of urban water supply using the capital portfolio approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krueger, E. H.; Klammler, H.; Borchardt, D.; Frank, K.; Jawitz, J. W.; Rao, P. S.

    2017-12-01

    The dynamics of global change challenge the resilience of cities in a multitude of ways, including pressures resulting from population and consumption changes, production patterns, climate and landuse change, as well as environmental hazards. Responses to these challenges aim to improve urban resilience, but lack an adequate understanding of 1) the elements and processes that lead to the resilience of coupled natural-human-engineered systems, 2) the complex dynamics emerging from the interaction of these elements, including the availability of natural resources, infrastructure, and social capital, which may lead to 3) unintended consequences resulting from management responses. We propose a new model that simulates the coupled dynamics of five types of capitals (water resources, infrastructure, finances, political capital /management, and social adaptive capacity) that are necessary for the provision of water supply to urban residents. We parameterize the model based on data for a case study city, which is limited by constraints in water availability, financial resources, and faced with degrading infrastructure, as well as population increase, which challenge the urban management institutions. Our model analyzes the stability of the coupled system, and produces time series of the capital dynamics to quantify its resilience as a result of the portfolio of capitals available to usher adaptive capacity and to secure water supply subjected to multiple recurring shocks. We apply our model to one real urban water supply system located in an arid environment, as well as a wide range of hypothetical case studies, which demonstrates its applicability to various types of cities, and its ability to quantify and compare water supply resilience. The analysis of a range of urban water systems provides valuable insights into guiding more sustainable responses for maintaining the resilience of urban water supply around the globe, by showing how unsustainable responses risk the

  7. Purifying hydrocarbons

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Demoulins, H D; Garner, F H

    1923-02-07

    Hydrocarbon distillates, including natural gases and vapors produced by cracking hydrocarbon oils, are desulfurized etc. by treating the vapor with an aqueous alkaline solution of an oxidizing agent. The hydrocarbons may be previously purified by sulfuric acid. In examples aqueous solutions of sodium or calcium hydrochlorite containing 1.5 to 5.0 grams per liter of available chlorine and sufficient alkali to give an excess of 0.1 percent in the spent reagent are preheated to the temperature of the vapor, and either sprayed or atomized into the vapors near the outlet of the dephlegmator or fractionating tower, or passed in countercurrent to the vapors through one or a series of scrubbers.

  8. Physicians' perception of demand-induced supply in the information age: a latent class model analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shih, Ya-Chen Tina; Tai-Seale, Ming

    2012-03-01

    This paper introduces a concept called 'demand-induced supply' that reflects the excess supply of services due to an increase in demand initiated by patients. We examine its association with the proportion of information-savvy patients in physicians' practice. Using data from a national representative physician survey, we apply latent class models to analyze this association. Our analyses categorize physicians into three 'types' according to the frequency with which they provided additional medical services at their patients' requests: frequent, occasional, and rare. The proportion of information-savvy patients is significantly and positively correlated with demand-induced supply for the frequent or occasional type, but not among physicians in the rare type. Efforts to contain healthcare costs through utilization control need to recognize the pattern of responses from physicians who treat an increasing number of information-savvy patients. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  9. A cost optimization model for 100% renewable residential energy supply systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Milan, Christian; Bojesen, Carsten; Nielsen, Mads Pagh

    2012-01-01

    The concept of net zero energy buildings (Net ZEB) has received increased attention throughout the last years. A well adapted and optimized design of the energy supply system is crucial for the performance of these buildings. To achieve this, a holistic approach is needed which accounts for the i......The concept of net zero energy buildings (Net ZEB) has received increased attention throughout the last years. A well adapted and optimized design of the energy supply system is crucial for the performance of these buildings. To achieve this, a holistic approach is needed which accounts......'s involving on-site production of heat and electricity in combination with electricity exchanged with the public grid. The model is based on linear programming and determines the optimal capacities for each relevant supply technology in terms of the overall system costs. It has been successfully applied...

  10. A multi-objective reliable programming model for disruption in supply chain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emran Mohammadi

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available One of the primary concerns on supply chain management is to handle risk components, properly. There are various reasons for having risk in supply chain such as natural disasters, unexpected incidents, etc. When a series of facilities are built and deployed, one or a number of them could probably fail at any time due to bad weather conditions, labor strikes, economic crises, sabotage or terrorist attacks and changes in ownership of the system. The objective of risk management is to reduce the effects of different domains to an acceptable level. To overcome the risk, we propose a reliable capacitated supply chain network design (RSCND model by considering random disruptions risk in both distribution centers and suppliers. The proposed study of this paper considers three objective functions and the implementation is verified using some instance.

  11. Documentation of the Oil and Gas Supply Module (OGSM). Appendix, Model developers report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-01-01

    The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting (OIAF) is required to provide complete model documentation to meet the EIA Model Acceptance Standards. The Documentation for the Oil and Gas Supply Module (OGSM) provides a complete description of the OGSM methodology, structure, and relation to other modules in the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). This Model Developers Report (MDR) serves as an appendix to the methodology documentation. This report provides an overview of the model and an assessment of the sensitivity of OGSM results to changes in input data or parameters

  12. A new multi objective optimization model for designing a green supply chain network under uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Mahdi Saffar

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Recently, researchers have focused on how to minimize the negative effects of industrial activities on environment. Consequently, they work on mathematical models, which minimize the environmental issues as well as optimizing the costs. In the field of supply chain network design, most managers consider economic and environmental issues, simultaneously. This paper introduces a bi-objective supply chain network design, which uses fuzzy programming to obtain the capability of resisting uncertain conditions. The design considers production, recovery, and distribution centers. The advantage of using this model includes the optimal facilities, locating them and assigning the optimal facilities to them. It also chooses the type and the number of technologies, which must be bought. The fuzzy programming converts the multi objective model to an auxiliary crisp model by Jimenez approach and solves it with ε-constraint. For solving large size problems, the Multi Objective Differential Evolutionary algorithm (MODE is applied.

  13. Lean production in improving supply chain performance through hybrid model SCOR 11.0 - system dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saleh, Chairul; Fatcha Mubiena, Ghaida; Immawan, Taufiq; Hassan, Azmi

    2016-02-01

    Supply Chain Operation Reference (SCOR) is a method to measure supply chain serving the business process framework, performance indicators and unique technologies to support communication and collaboration among supply chain partners. The objective of this paper is to measure Supply Chain Management performance by using SCOR version 11.0 for production typology of MTS-MTO in Indonesian Batik Industry. This research combines SCOR's model and System Dynamics in order to predict the complex activities on batik industry. The hybrid SCOR-SD could identify the interaction among five attributes with the associated variables simultaneously. The results are obtained after the performance of lean production application is increased and the targets are achieved, even exceeding the target. For reliability attributes that associated with perfect order fulfilment started from 2015 to 2019 respectively are calculated as 80.06%, 103.53%, 105.58%, 93.76%, and 72.17%. Responsiveness attributes associated with the order fulfilment cycle time, respectively 122.45%, 149.10%, 159.26%, 131.53%, and 119.36%. Attributes associated with the total cost of service charge respectively 93.46%, 93.53%, 93.45%, 93.49, and 93.49%. Attributes associated with cash management assets to cash cycle time in a row were 160%, 153%, 146.3%, 150%, and 126.7%. The latter attribute is agility attributes associated with supply chain flexibility upside respectively 100%, 87.2%, 100%, 82%, and 82%.

  14. Fuzzy Control Model and Simulation for Nonlinear Supply Chain System with Lead Times

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Songtao Zhang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available A new fuzzy robust control strategy for the nonlinear supply chain system in the presence of lead times is proposed. Based on Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy control system, the fuzzy control model of the nonlinear supply chain system with lead times is constructed. Additionally, we design a fuzzy robust H∞ control strategy taking the definition of maximal overlapped-rules group into consideration to restrain the impacts such as those caused by lead times, switching actions among submodels, and customers’ stochastic demands. This control strategy can not only guarantee that the nonlinear supply chain system is robustly asymptotically stable but also realize soft switching among subsystems of the nonlinear supply chain to make the less fluctuation of the system variables by introducing the membership function of fuzzy system. The comparisons between the proposed fuzzy robust H∞ control strategy and the robust H∞ control strategy are finally illustrated through numerical simulations on a two-stage nonlinear supply chain with lead times.

  15. Inferred demand and supply elasticities from a comparison of world oil models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huntington, H.G.

    1992-01-01

    This paper summarizes the responses of oil supply and demand to prices and income in 11 world oil models that were compared in a recent Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) study. In May 1989, the EMF commenced a study of international oil supplies and demands (hereafter, EMF-11) to compare alternative perspectives on supply and demand issues and how these developments influence the level and direction of world oil prices. In analysing these issues, the EMF-11 working group relied partly upon results from 11 world oil models, using standardized assumptions about oil prices and gross domestic product (GDP). During the study, inferred price elasticities of supply and demand were derived from a comparison of results across different oil price scenarios with the same GDP growth path. Inferred income elasticities of demand were derived from a comparison of results across different economic growth scenarios with the same oil price-path. Together, these estimates summarize several important relationships for understanding oil markets. The first section provides some background on the EMF study and on general trends in the scenarios of interest that help to understand the results. Following sections explain the derivation and qualifications of the inferred estimates, report the results and summarize the key conclusions. (author)

  16. Reactivity of hydrocarbons in response to injection of a CO2/O2 mixture under depleted reservoir conditions: experimental and numerical modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pacini-Petitjean, Claire

    2015-01-01

    The geological storage of CO 2 (CO 2 Capture-Storage - CCS) and the Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) by CO 2 injection into petroleum reservoirs could limit CO 2 atmospheric accumulation. However, CO 2 can be associated with oxygen. To predict the hydrocarbon evolution under these conditions involves the study of oxidation mechanisms. Oxidation experiment and kinetic detailed modeling were carried out with pure compounds. The comparison between experimental and modeling results led to the construction of a hydrocarbon oxidation kinetic model and emphasized the parameters leading to auto ignition. The good agreement between our experiments and modeling are promising for the development of a tool predicting the critical temperature leading to auto-ignition and the evolution of hydrocarbon composition, to estimate the stability of a petroleum system in CO 2 injection context. (author) [fr

  17. Activity coefficients at infinite dilution of hydrocarbons in glycols: Experimental data and thermodynamic modeling with the GCA-EoS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    González Prieto, Mariana; Williams-Wynn, Mark D.; Bahadur, Indra; Sánchez, Francisco A.; Mohammadi, Amir H.

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • Experimental infinite dilution activity coefficients of hydrocarbons in glycols. • Inverse gas-liquid chromatography technique. • Solutes investigated include n-alkanes, 1-alkenes, and cycloalkanes. • Highly non-ideal systems are modeled with the GCA-EoS. - Abstract: The infinite dilution activity coefficients for 12 non-polar hydrocarbon solutes in the solvents, monoethylene and diethylene glycol, were measured using the gas-liquid chromatography technique. Pre-saturation of the carrier gas was required to avoid solvent loss from the chromatographic column during the measurements that were carried out at T = (303.15, 313.15 and 323.15) K for monoethylene glycol and at T = (304.15, 313.15 and 323.15) K for diethylene glycol. The solutes investigated include n-alkanes, 1-alkenes, and cycloalkanes. The new data are compared with the highly scattered data that is available in the open literature. Finally, these highly non-ideal systems are modeled with the GCA-EoS.

  18. MODELING OF THE CONTROLLED TRACTION POWER SUPPLY SYSTEM IN THE SPACE-TIME COORDINATES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dmitry BOSYI

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The problems of the traction power supply system calculation are considered in the article. The authors proposed the space-time model, which is based on the analytical functions of the current- and voltage-drop distributions in the contact network. The usage of the proposed model is shown for the control law calculation both to stabilize the voltage at the pantographs of the electric rolling stocks and to reduce the power losses.

  19. Conceptual Framework for Agent-Based Modeling of Customer-Oriented Supply Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Solano-Vanegas , Clara ,; Carrillo-Ramos , Angela; Montoya-Torres , Jairo ,

    2015-01-01

    Part 3: Collaboration Frameworks; International audience; Supply Networks (SN) are complex systems involving the interaction of different actors, very often, with different objectives and goals. Among the different existing modeling approaches, agent-based systems can properly represent the autonomous behavior of SN links and, simultaneously, observe the general response of the system as a result of individual actions. Most of research using agent-based modeling in SN focuses on production is...

  20. Revised models for hydrocarbon generation, migration and accumulation in Jurassic coal measures of the Turpan basin, NW China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li Maowen; Stasiuk, L.D. [Geological Survey of Canada, Calgary, Alberta (Canada); Bao Jianping [Jianghan Petroleum University, Hubei (China); Lin, R. [Petroleum University (Beijing), Changping (China); Yuan Mingsheng [PetroChina Tu-Ha Oilfield Company, Xingjiang (China)

    2001-07-01

    Whether or not the Lower-Middle Jurassic coal measures in the Turpan basin of NW China have generated commercial quantities of liquid petroleums is a problem of considerable importance that remains contentious as it has not yet been resolved unequivocally. This study provides evidence against the Jurassic humic coals as the only major source for the oils discovered in the Taibei depression of this basin and suggests additional significant contributions from the Upper Permian and Middle-Lower Jurassic lacustrine source rocks. The Carboniferous-Permian marine source rocks may have been important also in limited locations along the major basement faults. Molecular and petrographic data indicate that the majority of the Middle Jurassic strata are currently immature or marginally mature with respect to hydrocarbon generation. Within the major depocenters, the Middle-Lower Jurassic coal-bearing strata of the Baodaowan and Xishanyao formations has reached the conventional oil window (i.e. with vitrinite reflectance >0.7 per cent Ro). Pre-Jurassic (Upper Permian in particular) derived hydrocarbons appear to be widespread in extracts of fractured Jurassic coal and fine-grained rocks. Large differences have been observed in the absolute concentrations of biomarker compounds in rock extracts of various source intervals. Thus, 'coaly' biomarker signatures of the oils most likely resulted from mixing and migration contamination when hydrocarbons derived from mature source rocks migrated up through highly fractured coal seams along deep-seated faults. In addition to conventional exploration targets, revised petroleum generation and accumulation models predict that the focus in the Turpan basin should also include deep structures within the Carboniferous-Permian strata and subtle, low magnitude anticlines and stratigraphic traps within thr Triassic-Jurassic sections. (author)

  1. MODEL BASED BIOMASS SYSTEM DESIGN OF FEEDSTOCK SUPPLY SYSTEMS FOR BIOENERGY PRODUCTION

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    David J. Muth, Jr.; Jacob J. Jacobson; Kenneth M. Bryden

    2013-08-01

    Engineering feedstock supply systems that deliver affordable, high-quality biomass remains a challenge for the emerging bioenergy industry. Cellulosic biomass is geographically distributed and has diverse physical and chemical properties. Because of this feedstock supply systems that deliver cellulosic biomass resources to biorefineries require integration of a broad set of engineered unit operations. These unit operations include harvest and collection, storage, preprocessing, and transportation processes. Design decisions for each feedstock supply system unit operation impact the engineering design and performance of the other system elements. These interdependencies are further complicated by spatial and temporal variances such as climate conditions and biomass characteristics. This paper develops an integrated model that couples a SQL-based data management engine and systems dynamics models to design and evaluate biomass feedstock supply systems. The integrated model, called the Biomass Logistics Model (BLM), includes a suite of databases that provide 1) engineering performance data for hundreds of equipment systems, 2) spatially explicit labor cost datasets, and 3) local tax and regulation data. The BLM analytic engine is built in the systems dynamics software package PowersimTM. The BLM is designed to work with thermochemical and biochemical based biofuel conversion platforms and accommodates a range of cellulosic biomass types (i.e., herbaceous residues, short- rotation woody and herbaceous energy crops, woody residues, algae, etc.). The BLM simulates the flow of biomass through the entire supply chain, tracking changes in feedstock characteristics (i.e., moisture content, dry matter, ash content, and dry bulk density) as influenced by the various operations in the supply chain. By accounting for all of the equipment that comes into contact with biomass from the point of harvest to the throat of the conversion facility and the change in characteristics, the

  2. A SURVEY OF STACKELBERG DIFFERENTIAL GAME MODELS IN SUPPLY AND MARKETING CHANNELS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xiuli HE; Ashutosh PRASAD; Suresh P. SETHI; Genaro J. GUTIERREZ

    2007-01-01

    Stackelberg differential game models have been used to study sequential decision making in noncooperative games in diverse fields. In this paper, we survey recent applications of Stackelberg differential game models to the supply chain management and marketing channels literatures. A common feature of these applications is the specification of the game structure: a decentralized channel composed of a manufacturer and independent retailers, and a sequential decision procedure with demand and supply dynamics and coordination issues. In supply chain management, Stackelberg differential games have been used to investigate inventory issues, wholesale and retail pricing strategies, and outsourcing in dynamic environments. The underlying demand typically has growth dynamics or seasonal variation. In marketing, Stackelberg differential games have been used to model cooperative advertising programs, store brand and national brand advertising strategies, shelf space allocation, and pricing and advertising decisions. The demand dynamics are usually extensions of the classical advertising capital models or sales-advertising response models. We begin by explaining the Stackelberg differential game solution methodology and then provide a description of the models and results reported in the literature.

  3. The INCOTUR model : estimation of losses in the tourism sector in Alcudia due to a hydrocarbon spill

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bergueiro, J.R.; Moreno, S.; Guijarro, S.; Santos, A.; Serr, F.

    2006-01-01

    This paper presented a computer model that calculates the economic losses incurred by a hydrocarbon spill on a coastal area. In particular, it focused on the Balearic Islands in the Bay of Alcudia where the economy depends mainly on tourism. A large number of oil tankers carrying crude oil and petroleum products pass through the Balearic Sea. Any pollution resulting from a fuel spill can have a significant economic impact on both the tourism sector and the Balearic society in general. This study focused on the simulation of 18 spills of Jet A1 fuel oil, unleaded gasoline and Bunker C fuel oil. Simulations of the study area were produced with OILMAP, MIKE21, GNOME and ADIOS models which estimated the trajectories of various spills and the amount of oil washed ashore. The change in physical and chemical properties of the spilled hydrocarbons was also determined. The simulation models considered the trajectory followed by spills according to the type and amount of spill, weather conditions prevailing during the spill and the period immediately following the spill. The INCOTUR model was then used to calculate the economic losses resulting from an oil spill by considering the number of tonnes of oil washed ashore; number of days needed to organize cleanup; the percentage of tourism that will be maintained despite the effects of the spill; number of hotel beds; percentage of hotel occupancy by month; cost of package holidays; petty cash expenses; and, cost of advertising campaign for the affected area. With this data, the model can determine the number of days needed to clean and restore the coastline; monthly rate of recovery in tourism levels; and, losses in tourism sector. According to the INCOTUR model, the total losses incurred by a spill of 40,000 tonnes of Bunker C fuel, was estimated at 472 million Euros. 9 refs., 2 tabs., 12 figs

  4. The INCOTUR model : estimation of losses in the tourism sector in Alcudia due to a hydrocarbon spill

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bergueiro, J.R.; Moreno, S.; Guijarro, S.; Santos, A.; Serr, F. [Iles Balears Univ., Palma de Mallorca, Balearic Islands (Spain). Dept. of Chemistry

    2006-07-01

    This paper presented a computer model that calculates the economic losses incurred by a hydrocarbon spill on a coastal area. In particular, it focused on the Balearic Islands in the Bay of Alcudia where the economy depends mainly on tourism. A large number of oil tankers carrying crude oil and petroleum products pass through the Balearic Sea. Any pollution resulting from a fuel spill can have a significant economic impact on both the tourism sector and the Balearic society in general. This study focused on the simulation of 18 spills of Jet A1 fuel oil, unleaded gasoline and Bunker C fuel oil. Simulations of the study area were produced with OILMAP, MIKE21, GNOME and ADIOS models which estimated the trajectories of various spills and the amount of oil washed ashore. The change in physical and chemical properties of the spilled hydrocarbons was also determined. The simulation models considered the trajectory followed by spills according to the type and amount of spill, weather conditions prevailing during the spill and the period immediately following the spill. The INCOTUR model was then used to calculate the economic losses resulting from an oil spill by considering the number of tonnes of oil washed ashore; number of days needed to organize cleanup; the percentage of tourism that will be maintained despite the effects of the spill; number of hotel beds; percentage of hotel occupancy by month; cost of package holidays; petty cash expenses; and, cost of advertising campaign for the affected area. With this data, the model can determine the number of days needed to clean and restore the coastline; monthly rate of recovery in tourism levels; and, losses in tourism sector. According to the INCOTUR model, the total losses incurred by a spill of 40,000 tonnes of Bunker C fuel, was estimated at 472 million Euros. 9 refs., 2 tabs., 12 figs.

  5. Introducing a model for competitiveness of suppliers in supply chain through game theory approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hengameh Cighary Deljavan

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Cighary Deljavan and Fariba Sadeghi PDF (300 KAbstract: The purpose of the present study is to introduce a model for competitiveness of suppliers in supply chain through game theory approach in one of the automobile companies of Iran. In this study, the game is based on price and non-price factors and this company is going to estimate the real profit obtained from collaboration with each of supply chain members. This happens by considering the governing competitive condition based on game theory before entering a bit for purchase of α piece as spare part among 8 companies supplying this piece as the supply chain members. According to experts in this industry, the quality is the main non-price competitiveness factor after price. In the current research models, the model introduced by Lu and Tsao (2011 [Lu, J.C., Tsao, Y.C., & Charoensiriwath, C. (2011. Competition Under manufacturer Service and retail price. Economic Modeling, 28,1256-1264.] with two manufacturers- one distributer, being appropriate for the research data, has been considered as the basis and implemented for case study and then it has been extended to n-manufacturers-one common retailer. Following price elasticity of demand, potential size of market or maximum product demand, retailer price, production price, wholesale price, demand amount, manufacturer and retailer profit are estimated under three scenario of manufacturer Stackelberg, Retailer Sackelberg and Vertical Nash. Therefore, by comparing them, price balance points and optimum level of services are specified and the better optimum scenario can be determined. Sensitivity analysis is performed for new model and manufacturers are ranked based on manufacture profit, Retailer profit and customer satisfaction. Finally, in this research in addition to introducing-person game model, customer satisfaction, which has been presented in the previous models as a missed circle are analyzed.

  6. Modelling and simulation of the integration of the supply chain of forward and backward type

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roman Domański

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: The integration, besides synergy and convergence, is regarded as a leading orientation in modern logistics. The connection of various participants within supply chains enables the integration of actions and allows to fulfill growing customers' demands in an effective and economically efficient way.  In times of a concept of the balanced development, growing interest in utilization of recycled material, connected with possibilities to consolidate  logistic activities, can be observed. According to the scientific literature (integration models as well as practical business cases, supply chains of forward and backward type (two-directional are the area of logistics of the intensive development.    Material and methods: The paper presents the Authors' model and methodology of modeling of the integration of supply chains, which realizes the flows of forward and backward type (two-directions. The empirical material was obtained during modeling and simulation of processes in the environment of iGrafx Process 2013 for Six Sigma with the support of Minitab 17 (for planning of experiments.  The method of the verification of statistical hypotheses was used. As a first step, the correlation between the level of the integration and the global service level for the supply chain was conducted using the method of Pearson's coefficient. The test of relevance of correlation coefficient was conducted by the use of t-distribution method. Then the verification of statistical hypotheses was made, based on the method using the Z-statistics. Results: The obtained results indicate clearly the strong relationship between the level of the integration of a supply chain and the obtained service level (values of Pearson's correlation coefficient and results of t-test. The detailed statistical researches of authors indicate that the increased level of the integration leads to the increase of the average value of service level coefficient (results of Z

  7. River longitudinal profiles and bedrock incision models: Stream power and the influence of sediment supply

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sklar, Leonard; Dietrich, William E.

    The simplicity and apparent mechanistic basis of the stream power river incision law have led to its wide use in empirical and theoretical studies. Here we identify constraints on its calibration and application, and present a mechanistic theory for the effects of sediment supply on incision rates which spotlights additional limitations on the applicability of the stream power law. On channels steeper than about 20%, incision is probably dominated by episodic debris flows, and on sufficiently gentle slopes, sediment may bury the bedrock and prevent erosion. These two limits bound the application of the stream power law and strongly constrain the possible combination of parameters in the law. In order to avoid infinite slopes at the drainage divide in numerical models of river profiles using the stream power law it is commonly assumed that the first grid cell is unchanneled. We show, however, that the size of the grid may strongly influence the calculated equilibrium relief. Analysis of slope-drainage area relationships for a river network in a Northern California watershed using digital elevation data and review of data previously reported by Hack reveal that non-equilibrium profiles may produce well defined slope-area relationships (as expected in equilibrium channels), but large differences between tributaries may point to disequilibrium conditions. To explore the role of variations in sediment supply and transport capacity in bedrock incision we introduce a mechanistic model for abrasion of bedrock by saltating bedload. The model predicts that incision rates reach a maximum at intermediate levels of sediment supply and transport capacity. Incision rates decline away from the maximum with either decreasing supply (due to a shortage of tools) or increasing supply (due to gradual bed alluviation), and with either decreasing transport capacity (due to less energetic particle movement) or increasing transport capacity (due less frequent particle impacts per unit bed

  8. Technoeconomic assumptions adopted for the development of a long-term electricity supply model for Cyprus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Constantinos Taliotis

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The generation mix of Cyprus has been dominated by oil products for decades. In order to conform with European Union and international legislation, a transformation of the supply system is called for. Energy system models can facilitate energy planning into the future, but a large volume of data is required to populate such models. The present data article provides information on key modelling assumptions and input data adopted with the aim of representing the electricity supply system of Cyprus in a separate research article. Data in regards to renewable energy technoeconomic characteristics and investment cost projections, fossil fuel price projections, storage technology characteristics and system operation assumptions are described in this article.

  9. An Integer Programming Model for Multi-Echelon Supply Chain Decision Problem Considering Inventories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harahap, Amin; Mawengkang, Herman; Siswadi; Effendi, Syahril

    2018-01-01

    In this paper we address a problem that is of significance to the industry, namely the optimal decision of a multi-echelon supply chain and the associated inventory systems. By using the guaranteed service approach to model the multi-echelon inventory system, we develop a mixed integer; programming model to simultaneously optimize the transportation, inventory and network structure of a multi-echelon supply chain. To solve the model we develop a direct search approach using a strategy of releasing nonbasic variables from their bounds, combined with the “active constraint” method. This strategy is used to force the appropriate non-integer basic variables to move to their neighbourhood integer points.

  10. Equilibrium Model of Discrete Dynamic Supply Chain Network with Random Demand and Advertisement Strategy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guitao Zhang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The advertisement can increase the consumers demand; therefore it is one of the most important marketing strategies in the operations management of enterprises. This paper aims to analyze the impact of advertising investment on a discrete dynamic supply chain network which consists of suppliers, manufactures, retailers, and demand markets associated at different tiers under random demand. The impact of advertising investment will last several planning periods besides the current period due to delay effect. Based on noncooperative game theory, variational inequality, and Lagrange dual theory, the optimal economic behaviors of the suppliers, the manufactures, the retailers, and the consumers in the demand markets are modeled. In turn, the supply chain network equilibrium model is proposed and computed by modified project contraction algorithm with fixed step. The effectiveness of the model is illustrated by numerical examples, and managerial insights are obtained through the analysis of advertising investment in multiple periods and advertising delay effect among different periods.

  11. A conceptual mitigation model for asymmetric information of supply chain in seaweed cultivation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teniwut, Wellem A.; Betaubun, Kamilius D.; Marimin; Djatna, Taufik

    2017-10-01

    Seaweed cultivation has a better advantage over other fisheries activity in terms of easiness on conducting the production and multiplier effect on coastal community welfare. The effect of seaweed farming on the prosperity of coastal community in Southeast Maluku started to take place in 2008, although in 2012 either number of production and workforce is declining rapidly. By solving this problem, this article also provided with identifying and analyzing the supply chain of seaweed cultivation in Southeast Maluku. Based on this analysis we have found that one of the main reasons of declining seaweed production and the number seaweed farmers was asymmetric information that occurred on seaweed supply chain in Southeast Maluku. The component of asymmetric risk was the quality of the seeds, price, information and technology and the knowledge of actual market of seaweed, especially by seaweed farmers. Therefore, it is essential to make a conceptual model on mitigation of asymmetric information on the supply chain of seaweed production. We proposed a conceptual model based on four perspectives, first was goal, criteria and sub-criteria, actor and the solution to mitigate asymmetric information supply chain on seaweed cultivation.

  12. Determination of aggregated load power consumption, under non-sinusoidal supply using an improved load model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bagheri, R.; Moghani, J.S.; Gharehpetian, G.B.; Mirtalaei, S.M.M.

    2009-01-01

    The harmonic content of supply voltage results in additional power losses and hence increases the load power consumption. The role of the power quality equipments on the power consumption without using an accurate model cannot be determined, too. In this paper, an improved model for aggregated loads proposed, which estimates the effects of voltage harmonics on the power consumption. The distinguished aspect of the proposed model is its parameters identification method which is based on the practical techniques, such as employing a capacitor bank or varying dummy loads in steps. The proposed model has been verified by the comparison of measured and simulated results.

  13. A GENERIC TACTICAL PLANNING MODEL TO SUPPLY A BIOREFINERY WITH BIOMASS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Birome Holo Ba

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT The supply chains which bring biomass to biorefineries play a critical role in biofuel production. Optimization models can help decision makers to design more efficient chains and minimize the cost of biomass delivered to the refineries. This article based on a French national research project on biomass logistics considers one refinery, able to process several crops and several parts of the same crop, over a one-year horizon divided into days or weeks. A network model and a data model are first developed to let the decision maker describe the supply chain structure and its data, without affecting the underlying mathematical model. The latter is a mixed integer linear program which combines for the first time various features, either original or tackled separately in the literature. Knowing the refinery demands, it determines the activity levels in the network (amounts harvested, baled, transported, stored, etc. and the required equipment, in order to minimize a total cost including harvesting costs, transport costs and storage costs. Numerical evaluations based on real data show that the proposed model can optimize large supply chains in reasonable running times.

  14. Purifying hydrocarbons

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dunstan, A E

    1918-06-03

    Ligroin, kerosene, and other distillates from petroleum and shale oil, are purified by treatment with a solution of a hypochlorite containing an excess of alkali. The hydrocarbon may be poured into brine, the mixture stirred, and an electric current passed through. Heat may be applied.

  15. European oil product supply modelling; Modelisation de l`offre de produits petroliers en Europe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saint-Antonin, V

    1998-12-11

    Over the last few years, trends in European oil product consumption (in terms of level as structure and quality) has important implications of the refining industry. In this context, the purpose of this thesis consists in building a mathematical programming model applied to the European refineries in order to determine oil product supply prices, European refining industry investments and oil product exchanges of the European Union. The first part presents the reason for our choice for a long-term aggregate multi-refineries linear programming model, based on European refineries characteristics and the objectives of our model. Its dual properties are studied in detail and we focus particularly on the European exchange modelling. In the second part, an analysis of the European refining trends leads us to identify parameters and variables of the model that are essential to the aggregate representation of the European oil product supply. The third part is devoted to the use of this model, regarding two scenarios of increasingly stringent specifications for gasoline and diesel oil. Our interest for these products is due to their important share of the European oil product consumption and the not insignificant responsibility of the transport sector for atmospheric pollution. Finally, in order to have the use of an overall picture of the European refining industry, we build a regression model summarizing, though a few equations, the main relations between the major endogenous and exogenous variables o the LP model. Based on pseudo-data, this kind of model provides a simple and robust representation of the oil product supply. But a more specialized analysis of the refining industry operations, turning on a technical assessment of processing units, is reliant on the use of an optimization model such as the model we have built. (author) 102 refs.

  16. Modeling potential migration of petroleum hydrocarbons from a mixed-waste disposal site in the vadose zone

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rawson, S.A.; Walton, J.C.; Baca, R.G.

    1989-01-01

    Environmental monitoring of a mixed-waste disposal site at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory has confirmed release and migration into the vadose zone of: (1) chlorinated hydrocarbons in the vapor phase and (2) trace levels of certain transuranic elements. The finding has prompted an evaluation of the potential role of waste petroleum hydrocarbons in mediating or influencing contaminant migration from the disposal site. Disposal records indicate that a large volume of machine oil contaminated with transuranic isotopes was disposed at the site along with the chlorinated solvents and other radioactive wastes. A multiphase flow model was used to assess the possible extent of oil and vapor movement through the 177 m thick vadose zone. One dimensional simulations were performed to estimate the vertical distribution of the vapor phase, the aqueous phase, and immiscible free liquid as a function of time. The simulations indicate that the oil may migrate slowly through the vadose zone, to potentially significant depths. Calculated transport rates support the following ranking with regard to relative mobility: vapor phase > aqueous phase > free liquid. 21 refs., 7 figs., 2 tabs

  17. Evaluation of gastrointestinal solubilization of petroleum hydrocarbon residues in soil using an in vitro physiologically based model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holman, Hoi-Ying N; Goth-Goldstein, Regine; Aston, David; Yun, Mao; Kengsoontra, Jenny

    2002-03-15

    Petroleum hydrocarbon residues in weathered soils may pose risks to humans through the ingestion pathway. To understand the factors controlling their gastrointestinal (GI) absorption, a newly developed experimental extraction protocol was used to model the GI solubility of total petroleum hydrocarbon (TPH) residues in highly weathered soils from different sites. The GI solubility of TPH residues was significantly higher for soil contaminated with diesel than with crude oil. Compared to the solubility of TPH residues during fasted state,the solubility of TPH residues during fat digestion was much greater. Diesel solubility increased from an average of 8% during the "gallbladder empty" phase of fasting (and less than 0.2% during the otherfasting phase) to an average of 16% during fat digestion. For crude oil, the solubility increased from an average of 1.2% during the gallbladder empty phase of fasting (and undetectable during the other fasting phase) to an average of 4.5% during fat digestion. Increasing the concentration of bile salts also increased GI solubility. GI solubility was reduced by soil organic carbon but enhanced by the TPH content.

  18. Modeling and simulation of the power demand and supply of a hydrothermal power generating system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pronini, R.A.

    1996-01-01

    Security of supply of electric energy is measured by the capacity to cover the energy demand and power of a supply grid. This coverage is important because the winter peak load period in Switzerland will become problematical in the near future. The objective of this research project is to analyze the ability of a power generating system to satisfy the power requirements of the corresponding supply network. The behaviour of the energy system in critical cases (loss of the largest generator, lack of available power from an external supplier or reduced capacity for energy storage) is tested for the present situation and for the rise in the annual load. The simulation of the load of the supply network is carried out by using a model developed for this project. This model is based on the analysis of half-hourly changes of load and on the statistical maximum values. The power generating system consists of nuclear generating units, hydro units with large reservoirs, run of the river installations and imported energy. Standby units such as gas turbines, spot market and coal-fired power stations are also available. Stochastic and deterministic energy and power models have been developed for the various power stations of the hydrothermal power system. In the case of nuclear power stations, a model has been developed on the basis of the output level, production losses and time and length of outages. The possible feeder streams of the run of the river installations and of the hydro units with a large reservoir are simulated using stochastic methods based on the historical values of the last 35 years. The commitment of the hydro units depends on the peak load requirements. The load and capacity over a period of several days and weeks have been simulated with stochastic models based on the Monte Carlo method and constantly (by half hour intervals) compared. In this manner each month can be simulated. (author) figs., tabs., 46 refs

  19. The long-term forecast of Taiwan's energy supply and demand: LEAP model application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, Yophy; Bor, Yunchang Jeffrey; Peng, Chieh-Yu

    2011-01-01

    The long-term forecasting of energy supply and demand is an extremely important topic of fundamental research in Taiwan due to Taiwan's lack of natural resources, dependence on energy imports, and the nation's pursuit of sustainable development. In this article, we provide an overview of energy supply and demand in Taiwan, and a summary of the historical evolution and current status of its energy policies, as background to a description of the preparation and application of a Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model of Taiwan's energy sector. The Taiwan LEAP model is used to compare future energy demand and supply patterns, as well as greenhouse gas emissions, for several alternative scenarios of energy policy and energy sector evolution. Results of scenarios featuring 'business-as-usual' policies, aggressive energy-efficiency improvement policies, and on-schedule retirement of Taiwan's three existing nuclear plants are provided and compared, along with sensitivity cases exploring the impacts of lower economic growth assumptions. A concluding section provides an interpretation of the implications of model results for future energy and climate policies in Taiwan. - Research highlights: → The LEAP model is useful for international energy policy comparison. → Nuclear power plants have significant, positive impacts on CO 2 emission. → The most effective energy policy is to adopt demand-side management. → Reasonable energy pricing provides incentives for energy efficiency and conservation. → Financial crisis has less impact on energy demand than aggressive energy policy.

  20. A new fuzzy mathematical model for green supply chain network design

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohsen Sadegh Amalnick

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The environmental changes caused by industrial activities have spurred a significant interest in designing supply chain networks by considering environmental issues such as CO2 emission. The pivotal role of taking uncertainty and risk into account in closed-loop supply chain networks has induced numerous researchers and practitioners to develop appropriate decision making tools to cope with these issues in such networks. To design a supply chain regarding environmental impacts under uncertainty of the input data and to cope with the operational risks, this paper proposes a multi objective possibilistic optimization model. The proposed model minimizes traditional costs such as cost of products shipment, purchasing machines and so on, as well as minimizing the environmental impact, and as a results strikes a balance between the two objective functions. Furthermore, in order to solve the proposed multi objective fuzzy mathematical programming model, an interactive fuzzy solution approach is applied. Numerical experiments are used to prove the applicability and feasibility of the developed possibilistic programming model and the usefulness of the applied hybrid solution approach.

  1. 2Dbasin modelling of the hydrocarbon systems in the forearc basin of Sumatra; 2D-Beckenmodellierung des Kohlenwasserstoff-Systems im Forearc-Bereich von Sumatra

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stratmann, V.; Berglar, K.; Lutz, R.; Schloemer, S. [Bundesanstalt fuer Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe, Hannover (Germany); Djajadihardja, Y.S. [Agency for the Assessment and Application of Technology, Jakarta (Indonesia)

    2008-10-23

    In the forearc basin of Sumatra, individual industrial drillings indicated the existence of hydrocarbons. The authors of the contribution under consideration report on an investigation of the hydrocarbon system within this forearc basin by means of a two-dimensional modelling of this basin. The structural development of the basins in the forearc area proceeded differently. Therefore, geophysical data for the investigation of the geological structures as well as geological/geochemical data were raised. The preliminary results of the two-dimensional modelling of the Simeulue basin northwest from Sumatra are presented.

  2. Model studies in hydrocarbon oxidation. Progress report, April 1--November 31, 1993

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Parkin, G.

    1993-12-31

    The research performed during the period 1 April--31 November 1993 has centered on an investigation of the chemistry of molecular terminal oxo complexes. In the long term, it is hoped that this research will provide results that are relevant to systems concerned with hydrocarbon oxidation. The authors have also carried studies of transition metal complexes that contain terminal sulfido, selenido and tellurido ligands, since a knowledge of the chemistry of the heavier congeners of this group will help provide a more complete understanding of the chemistry of transition metal oxo complexes. Furthermore, the chemistry of the metal sulfido derivatives will be directly related to hydrodesulfurization, an extremely important industrial process, for which transition metal-sulfido derivatives, e.g. MoS{sub 2}, are active catalysts.

  3. The quasi-ballistic model of electron mobility in liquid hydrocarbons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mozumder, A.

    1996-01-01

    A phenomenological theory of low-mobility liquid hydrocarbons is developed which includes electron ballistic motion in the quasi-free state, in competition with diffusion and trapping. For most low-mobility liquids the theory predicts consistently the effective mobility and activation energy, in agreement with experiments, using quasi-free mobility and trap density respectively as ∼ 100 cm 2 v -1 s -1 and ∼ 10 19 cm -3 . Field dependence of mobility if theoretically of quadratic type for relatively small fields, agreeing approximately with experimental data for n-hexane. Electron scavenging with ''good'' scavengers occurs via the quasi-free state at nearly diffusion-controlled rate; however the effect of large mean free path is seen clearly. (author)

  4. Uranium metallogenic model related to CO2 and hydrocarbon in granite type uranium deposits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ou Guangxi; Chen Anfu; Cui Jianyong; Xu Yinhuan; Wang Chunhua; Xu Yan

    2001-01-01

    The report is concerned with the inseparable connections between the uranium migration, enrichment rule and the geochemical characteristics of CO 2 and hydrocarbon gas, as well as the relations between the deposit locations and the gas abnormal distribution in rocky body, which are based on the analysis of some data and phenomena in 11 typical deposits in 2 granite type uranium ore fields, including the observations of 250 rocky fluid inclusion sections and the analyzed data of which 2470 are in gas composition, 200 in uranium content, 50 in thermometry. All the conclusions are drawn from different angles for the first time and this new exploration and advancement fills up the blank of gas geochemistry study in uranium deposits or other metal deposits

  5. Integration of environmental aspects in modelling and optimisation of water supply chains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koleva, Mariya N; Calderón, Andrés J; Zhang, Di; Styan, Craig A; Papageorgiou, Lazaros G

    2018-04-26

    Climate change becomes increasingly more relevant in the context of water systems planning. Tools are necessary to provide the most economic investment option considering the reliability of the infrastructure from technical and environmental perspectives. Accordingly, in this work, an optimisation approach, formulated as a spatially-explicit multi-period Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP) model, is proposed for the design of water supply chains at regional and national scales. The optimisation framework encompasses decisions such as installation of new purification plants, capacity expansion, and raw water trading schemes. The objective is to minimise the total cost incurring from capital and operating expenditures. Assessment of available resources for withdrawal is performed based on hydrological balances, governmental rules and sustainable limits. In the light of the increasing importance of reliability of water supply, a second objective, seeking to maximise the reliability of the supply chains, is introduced. The epsilon-constraint method is used as a solution procedure for the multi-objective formulation. Nash bargaining approach is applied to investigate the fair trade-offs between the two objectives and find the Pareto optimality. The models' capability is addressed through a case study based on Australia. The impact of variability in key input parameters is tackled through the implementation of a rigorous global sensitivity analysis (GSA). The findings suggest that variations in water demand can be more disruptive for the water supply chain than scenarios in which rainfalls are reduced. The frameworks can facilitate governmental multi-aspect decision making processes for the adequate and strategic investments of regional water supply infrastructure. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  6. A chemical and thermodynamic model of oil generation in hydrocarbon source rocks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helgeson, Harold C.; Richard, Laurent; McKenzie, William F.; Norton, Denis L.; Schmitt, Alexandra

    2009-02-01

    Thermodynamic calculations and Gibbs free energy minimization computer experiments strongly support the hypothesis that kerogen maturation and oil generation are inevitable consequences of oxidation/reduction disproportionation reactions caused by prograde metamorphism of hydrocarbon source rocks with increasing depth of burial.These experiments indicate that oxygen and hydrogen are conserved in the process.Accordingly, if water is stable and present in the source rock at temperatures ≳25 but ≲100 °C along a typical US Gulf Coast geotherm, immature (reduced) kerogen with a given atomic hydrogen to carbon ratio (H/C) melts incongruently with increasing temperature and depth of burial to produce a metastable equilibrium phase assemblage consisting of naphthenic/biomarker-rich crude oil, a type-II/III kerogen with an atomic hydrogen/carbon ratio (H/C) of ˜1, and water. Hence, this incongruent melting process promotes diagenetic reaction of detritus in the source rock to form authigenic mineral assemblages.However, in the water-absent region of the system CHO (which is extensive), any water initially present or subsequently entering the source rock is consumed by reaction with the most mature kerogen with the lowest H/C it encounters to form CO 2 gas and a new kerogen with higher H/C and O/C, both of which are in metastable equilibrium with one another.This hydrolytic disproportionation process progressively increases both the concentration of the solute in the aqueous phase, and the oil generation potential of the source rock; i.e., the new kerogen can then produce more crude oil.Petroleum is generated with increasing temperature and depth of burial of hydrocarbon source rocks in which water is not stable in the system CHO by a series of irreversible disproportionation reactions in which kerogens with higher (H/C)s melt incongruently to produce metastable equilibrium assemblages consisting of crude oil, CO 2 gas, and a more mature (oxidized) kerogen with a lower

  7. Customer involvement in greening the supply chain: an interpretive structural modeling methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Sanjay; Luthra, Sunil; Haleem, Abid

    2013-04-01

    The role of customers in green supply chain management needs to be identified and recognized as an important research area. This paper is an attempt to explore the involvement aspect of customers towards greening of the supply chain (SC). An empirical research approach has been used to collect primary data to rank different variables for effective customer involvement in green concept implementation in SC. An interpretive structural-based model has been presented, and variables have been classified using matrice d' impacts croises- multiplication appliqué a un classement analysis. Contextual relationships among variables have been established using experts' opinions. The research may help practicing managers to understand the interaction among variables affecting customer involvement. Further, this understanding may be helpful in framing the policies and strategies to green SC. Analyzing interaction among variables for effective customer involvement in greening SC to develop the structural model in the Indian perspective is an effort towards promoting environment consciousness.

  8. Simulation and Modeling Efforts to Support Decision Making in Healthcare Supply Chain Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eman AbuKhousa

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Recently, most healthcare organizations focus their attention on reducing the cost of their supply chain management (SCM by improving the decision making pertaining processes’ efficiencies. The availability of products through healthcare SCM is often a matter of life or death to the patient; therefore, trial and error approaches are not an option in this environment. Simulation and modeling (SM has been presented as an alternative approach for supply chain managers in healthcare organizations to test solutions and to support decision making processes associated with various SCM problems. This paper presents and analyzes past SM efforts to support decision making in healthcare SCM and identifies the key challenges associated with healthcare SCM modeling. We also present and discuss emerging technologies to meet these challenges.

  9. Simulation and modeling efforts to support decision making in healthcare supply chain management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    AbuKhousa, Eman; Al-Jaroodi, Jameela; Lazarova-Molnar, Sanja; Mohamed, Nader

    2014-01-01

    Recently, most healthcare organizations focus their attention on reducing the cost of their supply chain management (SCM) by improving the decision making pertaining processes' efficiencies. The availability of products through healthcare SCM is often a matter of life or death to the patient; therefore, trial and error approaches are not an option in this environment. Simulation and modeling (SM) has been presented as an alternative approach for supply chain managers in healthcare organizations to test solutions and to support decision making processes associated with various SCM problems. This paper presents and analyzes past SM efforts to support decision making in healthcare SCM and identifies the key challenges associated with healthcare SCM modeling. We also present and discuss emerging technologies to meet these challenges.

  10. Two-echelon competitive integrated supply chain model with price and credit period dependent demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pal, Brojeswar; Sankar Sana, Shib; Chaudhuri, Kripasindhu

    2016-04-01

    This study considers a two-echelon competitive supply chain consisting of two rivaling retailers and one common supplier with trade credit policy. The retailers hope that they can enhance their market demand by offering a credit period to the customers and the supplier also offers a credit period to the retailers. We assume that the market demand of the products of one retailer depends not only on their own market price and offering a credit period to the customers, but also on the market price and offering a credit period of the other retailer. The supplier supplies the product with a common wholesale price and offers the same credit period to the retailers. We study the model under a centralised (integrated) case and a decentralised (Vertical Nash) case and compare them numerically. Finally, we investigate the model by the collected numerical data.

  11. A Fuzzy Linear Programming Model for Improving Productivity of Electrical Energy in Potable Water Supply Facilities (Case study: Sistan Water Supply Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vahid Baradaran

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available One of the most important operational issues in urban drinking water production and distribution systems is to assign a plan for running hours of water supplying electric pumps. The cost of consuming electricity in these pumps allocates most of water and wastewater companies operational costs to itself which is dependent to their running hours. In this paper, meanwhile having a field study in Sistan rural water and wastewater company, the constraints for specifying electric pumps operational time in water supplying resources such as restrictions in fulfilling demand, supply potable water with suitable quality and uselessness of electric pumps have been identified. Due to uncertainty and fuzziness of the constraints, a linear programming model with fuzzy restrictions for determining electric pumps running hours per day is submitted with the aim to minimize electricity consumption and cost. After collecting and using required data for model, it proved that using the proposed model could reduce the costs of electrical energy and increase productivity up to 23 percent per month. The proposed mathematical fuzzy programming is able to specify electric pumps scheduling plan for water supply resources with the aim to reduce the costs of consuming energy.

  12. A bargaining model of regulated markets' integration with an application to electricity supply market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wei Jingyuan; Smeers, Y.; Canon, E.

    1995-01-01

    An integrated market organized by regulated electric utilities is modelled. It is assumed that, given a price vector for the exchange of electricity between each pair of neighboring utilities, utilities independently maximize their own domestic social welfare subject to the zero profit constraint. An equilibrium price vector for exchanges among utilities is defined as the one which clears the exchanges for all pair of business partners. A single piecewise linear model is formulated for computing market equilibria. The model is used to simulate the electricity supply market organized by 11 western European countries

  13. A methodology and supply chain management inspired reference ontology for modeling healthcare teams.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuziemsky, Craig E; Yazdi, Sara

    2011-01-01

    Numerous studies and strategic plans are advocating more team based healthcare delivery that is facilitated by information and communication technologies (ICTs). However before we can design ICTs to support teams we need a solid conceptual model of team processes and a methodology for using such a model in healthcare settings. This paper draws upon success in the supply chain management domain to develop a reference ontology of healthcare teams and a methodology for modeling teams to instantiate the ontology in specific settings. This research can help us understand how teams function and how we can design ICTs to support teams.

  14. A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF SIMULATION AND TIME SERIES MODEL IN QUANTIFYING BULLWHIP EFFECT IN SUPPLY CHAIN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. V. O. Fabson

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Bullwhip (or whiplash effect is an observed phenomenon in forecast driven distribution channeland careful management of these effects is of great importance to managers of supply chain.Bullwhip effect refers to situations where orders to the suppliers tend to have larger variance thansales to the buyer (demand distortion and the distortion increases as we move up the supply chain.Due to the fact that demand of customer for product is unstable, business managers must forecast inorder to properly position inventory and other resources. Forecasts are statistically based and in mostcases, are not very accurate. The existence of forecast errors made it necessary for organizations tooften carry an inventory buffer called “safety stock”. Moving up the supply chain from the end userscustomers to raw materials supplier there is a lot of variation in demand that can be observed, whichcall for greater need for safety stock.This study compares the efficacy of simulation and Time Series model in quantifying the bullwhipeffects in supply chain management.

  15. The reference model of supply chain operational controlling in value management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available The systemic approach of the controlling function to supporting the operations management results from its complex analysis of the supply chain business and operating results and from influencing the operations management factors - products, processes and resources that determine the achieved result (revenues, costs, profitability and assets turnover as well as the return on invested capital. All product features which stand for customer value and its competitiveness are the basis for designing, planning and controlling the interconnected processes responsible for manufacturing and delivery of products. The effectiveness of methods applied in developing products, processes and resources depends on the precise analysis and appraisal of the operating conditions that justify their application. Supporting the operations management, focused on the product value and improving the company's financial result, apart from financial, technical and economic analyses requires transferring the product value to activities control methods and to developing the resources in the product supply chain already at the stage of planning. As a result of an analysis of requirements supporting the development of processes and resources in the supply chain, a reference model of operational controlling in product value management was developed. The multicriterion selection and appropriate application of material flow management methods in the supply chain is each time preceded by an operating and financial analysis as well as by an appraisal of operating conditions that influence the choice of control methods.

  16. Metabolic modelling to support long term strategic decisions on water supply systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciriello, Valentina; Felisa, Giada; Lauriola, Ilaria; Pomanti, Flavio; Di Federico, Vittorio

    2017-04-01

    Water resources are essential for the economic development and sustenance of anthropic activities belonging to the civil, agricultural and industrial sectors. Nevertheless, availability of water resources is not uniformly distributed in space and time. Moreover, the increasing water demand, mainly due to population growth and expansion of agricultural crops, may cause increasing water stress conditions, if combined with the effects of climate change. Under these circumstances, it is necessary to improve the resilience of water supply systems both in terms of infrastructures and environmental compliance. Metabolic modelling approaches represent a flexible tool able to provide support to decision making in the long term, based on sustainability criteria. These approaches mimic the water supply network through a set of material and energy fluxes that interact and influence each other. By analyzing these fluxes, a suite of key performance indicators is evaluated in order to identify which kind of interventions may be applied to increase the sustainability of the system. Here, we adopt these concepts to analyze the water supply network of Reggio-Emilia (Italy) which is supported by water withdrawals from both surface water and groundwater bodies. We analyze different scenarios, including possible reduction of water withdrawals from one of the different sources as a consequence of a decrease in water availability under present and future scenarios. On these basis, we identify preventive strategies for a dynamic management of the water supply system.

  17. Modelling and Risk Management in the Offshore and Marine Industry Supply Chain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carman Lee

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Supply chain risk management is primarily a process that involves the identification, assessment and mitigation of risks that arise in a particular supply chain system. Pertaining to that, the offshore and marine industry is one of the many industries that have seldom received much consideration when it comes to management of the supply chain system. The rig building facet of the offshore and marine industry was thus chosen as the main focus of the project to manage the risks that arise in a particular oil rig building project. A risk mitigation plan framework was proposed to act as a guideline to identify as much risk as possible, eliminate trivial ones, and subsequently, prioritizing the remaining ones. The final step involves the formulation of a mathematical model based on the selected risk. In this case, the risk of raw material price fluctuation is studied. The demonstration of the Monte Carlo simulation using the Risk Solver program was also done to quantify the risks. Two case scenarios were then developed along with the implementation of risk management techniques in order to observe the effectiveness of the risk management of the overall rig building supply chain.

  18. A General Simulation Framework for Supply Chain Modeling: State of the Art and Case Study

    OpenAIRE

    Antonio Cimino; Francesco Longo; Giovanni Mirabelli

    2010-01-01

    Nowadays there is a large availability of discrete event simulation software that can be easily used in different domains: from industry to supply chain, from healthcare to business management, from training to complex systems design. Simulation engines of commercial discrete event simulation software use specific rules and logics for simulation time and events management. Difficulties and limitations come up when commercial discrete event simulation software are used for modeling complex rea...

  19. A SUSTAINABLE SUPPLY CHAIN MODEL OF RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN WOOD SUPPLIER AND FURNITURE INDUSTRY IN INDONESIA

    OpenAIRE

    and Shalihuddin Djalal Tandjung, Muh. Hisjam Adi Djoko Guritno

    2012-01-01

    Wooden furniture industry is an important industry sector in Indonesia, because many people’s welfare relyon this industry sector and the industry has a big social and environmental impacts. Many wooden furnitureindustries in Indonesia, especially in Central Java Province face problems related to the sustainability. The relationbetween wood suppliers and furniture industry is studied in this paper. A sustainable supply chain management (s-SCM) model is proposed as an approach for solutions fo...

  20. The project finance model in the supply of residential and commercial premises

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Damir Juričić

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available A supply of dwellings greater than the demand, a reduction in the availability of housing loans and increased credit risk, caused, inter alia, by the financial crisis: these are the basic features of today’s residential property and commercial premises markets in Croatia today. Built but unsold housing units have exposed private investors, who have organised the supply of units within the balance sheet of their firms, to significant risk of underinvestment. The materialisation of this risk is most manifested in the impossibility of funding the core business because of loans that they have agreed on for the construction of dwelling units meant for sale on the market. The paper then proposes a model that, if it were applied, could insure investors to a greater extent against the risk of underinvestment. The supply of dwelling units with protected rentals by the local public sector organised in the traditional manner, i.e. according to a model in which the local public sector figures in the role of investor, distributes the burden of development costs onto the future generations as well. However, practice has shown that traditional models inequitably expose future generations to the risk of a reduction in the quality of this kind of public service. From this point of view the proposed model transfers to the future generation not only the costs but also the obligations to secure equal qualities of public service in such a way that the private investor long-term assumes the risk of the availability of public building.The problem in this kind of organisation of the supply of a public service is double taxation via VAT, changes in the law concerning which are accordingly proposed.

  1. SUPPLIES COSTS: AN EXPLORATORY STUDY WITH APPLICATION OF MEASUREMENT MODEL OF LOGISTICS COSTS

    OpenAIRE

    Ana Paula Ferreira Alves; José Vanderlei Silva Borba; Gilberto Tavares dos Santos; Artur Roberto Gibbon

    2013-01-01

    One of the main reasons for the difficulty in adopting an integrated method of calculation of logistics costs is still a lack of adequate information about costs. The management of the supply chain and identify its costs can provide information for their managers, with regard to decision making, generating competitive advantage. Some models of calculating logistics costs are proposed by Uelze (1974), Dias (1996), Goldratt (2002), Christopher (2007), Castiglioni (2009) and Borba & Gibbon (2009...

  2. Accelerating the deployment of supply chain strategies through the adoption of standard operations reference model for supply chains producing capacity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Toews, A. [Project Plato Inc., Calgary, AB (Canada)

    2004-07-01

    This PowerPoint presentation provided information on how to build a procurement organization in the energy sector with reference to aligning supply chain management with corporate objectives to enhance response time in transactions with suppliers and customers. The paper examined the degree to which procurement functions are centralized versus decentralized and which combinations work best. It also examined how e-commerce can improve the efficiency and effectiveness of the procurement function and add value to an organization. The author emphasized the importance of a multi-functional team to create a successful sourcing strategy and develop strong purchasing capabilities within the organization. tabs., figs.

  3. Seasonal storage and alternative carriers: A flexible hydrogen supply chain model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reuß, M.; Grube, T.; Robinius, M.; Preuster, P.; Wasserscheid, P.; Stolten, D.

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: •Techno-economic model of future hydrogen supply chains. •Implementation of liquid organic hydrogen carriers into a hydrogen mobility analysis. •Consideration of large-scale seasonal storage for fluctuating renewable hydrogen production. •Implementation of different technologies for hydrogen storage and transportation. -- Abstract: A viable hydrogen infrastructure is one of the main challenges for fuel cells in mobile applications. Several studies have investigated the most cost-efficient hydrogen supply chain structure, with a focus on hydrogen transportation. However, supply chain models based on hydrogen produced by electrolysis require additional seasonal hydrogen storage capacity to close the gap between fluctuation in renewable generation from surplus electricity and fuelling station demand. To address this issue, we developed a model that draws on and extends approaches in the literature with respect to long-term storage. Thus, we analyse Liquid Organic Hydrogen Carriers (LOHC) and show their potential impact on future hydrogen mobility. We demonstrate that LOHC-based pathways are highly promising especially for smaller-scale hydrogen demand and if storage in salt caverns remains uncompetitive, but emit more greenhouse gases (GHG) than other gaseous or hydrogen ones. Liquid hydrogen as a seasonal storage medium offers no advantage compared to LOHC or cavern storage since lower electricity prices for flexible operation cannot balance the investment costs of liquefaction plants. A well-to-wheel analysis indicates that all investigated pathways have less than 30% GHG-emissions compared to conventional fossil fuel pathways within a European framework.

  4. Modeling sustainable long-term electricity supply-demand in Africa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ouedraogo, Nadia S.

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • This study is one of the first detailed and complete representation of the African power system. • It models, within LEAP, possible future paths for the regional power systems. • All the end-users and supply side activities and actors are considered. • Three scenarios are examined: the baseline, the renewable energy, and the energy efficiency. • The energy efficiency scenario has allowed to draw a sustainable pathway for electrification. - Abstract: This paper develops a scenario-based model to identify and provide an array of electricity demand in Africa, and to derive them from the African power system of development. A system-based approach is performed by applying the scenario methodology developed by Schwartz in the context of the energy-economic modeling platform ‘Long-range Energy Alternative Planning’. Four scenarios are investigated. The Business as Usual scenario (BAU) replicates the regional and national Master Plans. The renewable-promotion scenario increases the share of renewable energy in the electricity mix. The demand and supply side efficiency scenarios investigate the impact of energy efficiency measures on the power system. The results show an increase in electricity demand by 4% by 2040, supply shortages and high emissions of Greenhouse Gases. Contrary to expectations, the renewable energy scenario did not emerge as the best solution to a sustainable electrification of the region. The energy efficiency scenarios have allowed us to draw a sustainable pathway for electrification.

  5. A distribution planning model for natural gas supply chain: A case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamedi, Maryam; Zanjirani Farahani, Reza; Husseini, Mohammad Moattar; Esmaeilian, Gholam Reza

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, a real-world case study of a natural gas supply chain is investigated. By using concepts related to natural gas industry and the relations among the components of transmission and distribution network, a six-level supply chain has been introduced and presented schematically. The defined supply chain is a single-objective, multi-period, and single-product problem that is formulated as a mixed integer non-linear programming model, which can easily be linearized. The objective of this model is to minimize direct or indirect distribution costs. There are six groups of constraints including capacity, input and output balancing, demand satisfaction, network flow continuity, and relative constraints to the required binary variables. The solution algorithm of the problem is hierarchical; in each step, one section of the problem is solved using an exact method; the outputs of this section are passed to the next relative section as inputs. Finally, it is shown that the problem has been solved in a reasonable time and desirable results are attained. The use of proposed model and its solution approach have been studied in two gas trunk lines, to present the priority of its cost saving

  6. Informed Principal Model and Contract in Supply Chain with Demand Disruption Asymmetric Information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huan Zhang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Because of the frequency and disastrous influence, the supply chain disruption has caused extensive concern both in the industry and in the academia. In a supply chain with one manufacturer and one retailer, the demand of the retailer is uncertain and meanwhile may suffer disruption with a probability. Taking the demand disruption probability as the retailer’s asymmetric information, an informed principal model with the retailer as the principal is explored to make the contract. The retailer can show its information to the manufacturer through the contract. It is found out that the high-risk retailer intends to pretend to be the low-risk one. So the separating contract is given through the low-information-intensity allocation, in which the order quantity and the transferring payment for the low-risk retailer distort upwards, but those of high-risk retailer do not distort. In order to reduce the signaling cost which the low-risk retailer pays, the interim efficient model is introduced, which ends up with the order quantity and transferring payment distorting upwards again but less than before. In the numerical examples, with two different mutation probabilities, the informed principal contracts show the application of the informed principal model in the supply chain with demand disruption.

  7. Burial history, thermal history and hydrocarbon generation modelling of the Jurassic source rocks in the basement of the Polish Carpathian Foredeep and Outer Carpathians (SE Poland)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kosakowski, Paweł; Wróbel, Magdalena

    2012-08-01

    Burial history, thermal maturity, and timing of hydrocarbon generation were modelled for the Jurassic source rocks in the basement of the Carpathian Foredeep and marginal part of the Outer Carpathians. The area of investigation was bounded to the west by Kraków, to the east by Rzeszów. The modelling was carried out in profiles of wells: Będzienica 2, Dębica 10K, Góra Ropczycka 1K, Goleszów 5, Nawsie 1, Pławowice E1 and Pilzno 40. The organic matter, containing gas-prone Type III kerogen with an admixture of Type II kerogen, is immature or at most, early mature to 0.7 % in the vitrinite reflectance scale. The highest thermal maturity is recorded in the south-eastern part of the study area, where the Jurassic strata are buried deeper. The thermal modelling showed that the obtained organic matter maturity in the initial phase of the "oil window" is connected with the stage of the Carpathian overthrusting. The numerical modelling indicated that the onset of hydrocarbon generation from the Middle Jurassic source rocks was also connected with the Carpathian thrust belt. The peak of hydrocarbon generation took place in the orogenic stage of the overthrusting. The amount of generated hydrocarbons is generally small, which is a consequence of the low maturity and low transformation degree of kerogen. The generated hydrocarbons were not expelled from their source rock. An analysis of maturity distribution and transformation degree of the Jurassic organic matter shows that the best conditions for hydrocarbon generation occurred most probably in areas deeply buried under the Outer Carpathians. It is most probable that the "generation kitchen" should be searched for there.

  8. Decision-making for supplying energy projects: A four-dimensional model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith Stegen, Karen; Palovic, Martin

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Extant pipeline evaluation models offer insufficient supplier analysis tools. • We offer a four-dimensional decision-making tool to augment extant models. • Model employs four filters to help decision makers eliminate unsuitable suppliers. • Aids in prioritization of best courses of action for overcoming obstacles. • Case study of Nabucco pipeline shows Azerbaijan would have been best supply option. - Abstract: Importing states and regions employ myriad strategies to enhance energy security, from stockpiling to diversification to efficiency programs. As has occurred in recent years, importers can seek diversification by initiating pipeline and liquefied natural gas projects, meaning they may also have to select suppliers. However, most extant pipeline evaluation models erroneously assume suppliers are known and thus neglect supplier selection. We propose a decision-making tool to augment these older models: a systematic and replicable four-dimensional model to help policymakers and managers identify suitable suppliers and prioritize the best courses of action for overcoming obstacles. The first three dimensions—timeframe, supply availability and infrastructure constraints—filter out unsuitable suppliers. The fourth dimension then assesses the political, geopolitical and commercial stability of the remaining candidates. To demonstrate the model in practice, we assess the original Nabucco pipeline proposal, which was designed to transport gas from the Caspian and Middle East regions to Europe

  9. A Linkage Model of Supply Chain Operation and Financial Performance for Economic Sustainability of Firm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suk Ho Jin

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Although several studies have explored the relationship between the operation and performance of a supply chain (SC, a general SC model cannot deliver the expected financial results at a company-wide level. In this paper, we argue that this cannot guarantee the maximization of a firm’s overall value because short-term financial performance metrics do not reflect the risk to businesses and the invested capital. Owing to the varying natures of risk and the capital invested, firms with multiple divisions should assess each division separately, and the results can be compared for decisions concerning the allocation of the firm’s capital and resources to maximize the overall value of its businesses. We propose a linkage model to consider operational activities and financial performance simultaneously in a firm’s supply chain model. To exhibit the superiority of the proposed model that connects SC operation and financial indicators, we first compare the differences between models for maximizing profit and enterprise-wise economic value added (EVA as objective functions. To examine uncertainty in the operational and financial parameters of the SC, the results of sensitivity analyses are then reported. Experimental results showed that our model, using the EVA approach, is more effective and superior in terms of maximizing the firm’s overall value from the long-term perspective while satisfying the target values for financial ratios set by the firm’s executives and shareholders for all periods, unlike the results of the general model.

  10. Security of supply and retail competition in the European gas market. Some model-based insights

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abada, Ibrahim; Massol, Olivier

    2011-04-01

    In this paper, we analyze the impact of uncertain disruptions in gas supply upon gas retailer contracting behavior and consequent price and welfare implications in a gas market characterized by long-term gas contracts using a static Cournot model. In order to most realistically describe the economical situation, our representation divides the market into two stages: the upstream market that links, by means of long-term contracts, producers in exporting countries (Russia, Algeria, etc.) to local retailers who bring gas to the consuming countries to satisfy local demands in the downstream market. Disruption costs are modeled using short-run demand functions. First we mathematically develop a general model and write the associated KKT conditions, then we propose some case studies, under iso-elasticity assumptions, for the long-short-run inverse-demand curves in order to predict qualitatively and quantitatively the impacts of supply disruptions on Western European gas trade. In the second part, we study in detail the German gas market of the 1980's to explain the supply choices of the German retailer, and we derive interesting conclusions and insights concerning the amounts and prices of natural gas brought to the market. The last part of the paper is dedicated to a study of the Bulgarian gas market, which is greatly dependent on the Russian gas supplies and hence very sensitive to interruption risks. Some interesting conclusions are derived concerning the necessity to economically regulate the market, by means of gas amounts control, if the disruption probability is high enough. (authors)

  11. A subjective supply-demand model: the maximum Boltzmann/Shannon entropy solution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piotrowski, Edward W.; Sładkowski, Jan

    2009-03-01

    The present authors have put forward a projective geometry model of rational trading. The expected (mean) value of the time that is necessary to strike a deal and the profit strongly depend on the strategies adopted. A frequent trader often prefers maximal profit intensity to the maximization of profit resulting from a separate transaction because the gross profit/income is the adopted/recommended benchmark. To investigate activities that have different periods of duration we define, following the queuing theory, the profit intensity as a measure of this economic category. The profit intensity in repeated trading has a unique property of attaining its maximum at a fixed point regardless of the shape of demand curves for a wide class of probability distributions of random reverse transactions (i.e. closing of the position). These conclusions remain valid for an analogous model based on supply analysis. This type of market game is often considered in research aiming at finding an algorithm that maximizes profit of a trader who negotiates prices with the Rest of the World (a collective opponent), possessing a definite and objective supply profile. Such idealization neglects the sometimes important influence of an individual trader on the demand/supply profile of the Rest of the World and in extreme cases questions the very idea of demand/supply profile. Therefore we put forward a trading model in which the demand/supply profile of the Rest of the World induces the (rational) trader to (subjectively) presume that he/she lacks (almost) all knowledge concerning the market but his/her average frequency of trade. This point of view introduces maximum entropy principles into the model and broadens the range of economic phenomena that can be perceived as a sort of thermodynamical system. As a consequence, the profit intensity has a fixed point with an astonishing connection with Fibonacci classical works and looking for the quickest algorithm for obtaining the extremum of a

  12. Combined prediction model for supply risk in nuclear power equipment manufacturing industry based on support vector machine and decision tree

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shi Chunsheng; Meng Dapeng

    2011-01-01

    The prediction index for supply risk is developed based on the factor identifying of nuclear equipment manufacturing industry. The supply risk prediction model is established with the method of support vector machine and decision tree, based on the investigation on 3 important nuclear power equipment manufacturing enterprises and 60 suppliers. Final case study demonstrates that the combination model is better than the single prediction model, and demonstrates the feasibility and reliability of this model, which provides a method to evaluate the suppliers and measure the supply risk. (authors)

  13. Investigation of Effectiveness of Order Review and Release Models in Make to Order Supply Chain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kundu Kaustav

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays customisation becomes more common due to vast requirement from the customers for which industries are trying to use make-to-order (MTO strategy. Due to high variation in the process, workload control models are extensively used for jobshop companies which usually adapt MTO strategy. Some authors tried to implement workload control models, order review and release systems, in non-repetitive manufacturing companies, where there is a dominant flow in production. Those models are better in shop floor but their performances are never been investigated in high variation situations like MTO supply chain. This paper starts with the introduction of particular issues in MTO companies and a general overview of order review and release systems widely used in the industries. Two order review and release systems, the Limited and Balanced models, particularly suitable for flow shop system are applied to MTO supply chain, where the processing times are difficult to estimate due to high variation. Simulation results show that the Balanced model performs much better than the Limited model if the processing times can be estimated preciously.

  14. Prediction of cold start hydrocarbon emissions of air cooled two wheeler spark ignition engines by simple fuzzy logic simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samuel Raja Ayyanan

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The cold start hydrocarbon emission from the increasing population of two wheelers in countries like India is one of the research issues to be addressed. This work describes the prediction of cold start hydrocarbon emissions from air cooled spark ignition engines through fuzzy logic technique. Hydrocarbon emissions were experimentally measured from test engines of different cubic capacity, at different lubricating oil temperature and at different idling speeds with and without secondary air supply in exhaust. The experimental data were used as input for modeling average hydrocarbon emissions for 180 seconds counted from cold start and warm start of gasoline bike engines. In fuzzy logic simulation, member functions were assigned for input variables (cubic capacity and idling rpm and output variables (average hydrocarbon emission for first 180 seconds at cold start and warm start. The knowledge based rules were adopted from the analyzed experimental data and separate simulations were carried out for predicting hydrocarbon emissions from engines equipped with and without secondary air supply. The simulation yielded the average hydrocarbon emissions of air cooled gasoline engine for a set of given input data with accuracy over 90%.

  15. Analysis of bullwhip effect on supply chain with Q model using Hadley-Within approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siregar, I.; Nasution, A. A.; Matondang, N.; Persada, M. R.; Syahputri, K.

    2018-02-01

    This research held on a tapioca flour industry company that uses cassava as raw material to produce tapioca starch product. Problems that occur in this company is inaccurate planning, consequently there is a shortage of variation between the number of requests with the total supply is met, so it is necessary to do research with the formulation of the problem that is how to analyze the Bullwhip Effect on the supply chain using Q model through Hadley-Within approach so as not to disturb the product distribution system at the company. Product distribution system at the company, obtained by the number of requests. The 2015 forecast result is lower than actual demand for distributors and manufactures in 2016 with average percentage difference for Supermarket A distributor, Supermarket B and manufacturing respectively 38.24%, 89.57% and 43.11%. The occurrence of information distortion to the demand of this product can identify the existence of bullwhip effect on the supply chain. The proposed improvement to overcome the bullwhip effect is by doing inventory control policy with Q model using Hadley-Within approach.

  16. Arterial Blood Supply to the Spinal Cord in Animal Models of Spinal Cord Injury. A Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazensky, David; Flesarova, Slavka; Sulla, Igor

    2017-12-01

    Animal models are used to examine the results of experimental spinal cord injury. Alterations in spinal cord blood supply caused by complex spinal cord injuries contribute significantly to the diversity and severity of the spinal cord damage, particularly ischemic changes. However, the literature has not completely clarified our knowledge of anatomy of the complex three-dimensional arterial system of the spinal cord in experimental animals, which can impede the translation of experimental results to human clinical applications. As the literary sources dealing with the spinal cord arterial blood supply in experimental animals are limited and scattered, the authors performed a review of the anatomy of the arterial blood supply to the spinal cord in several experimental animals, including pigs, dogs, cats, rabbits, guinea pigs, rats, and mice and created a coherent format discussing the interspecies differences. This provides researchers with a valuable tool for the selection of the most suitable animal model for their experiments in the study of spinal cord ischemia and provides clinicians with a basis for the appropriate translation of research work to their clinical applications. Anat Rec, 300:2091-2106, 2017. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  17. Multi-scale process and supply chain modelling: from lignocellulosic feedstock to process and products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hosseini, Seyed Ali; Shah, Nilay

    2011-01-01

    There is a large body of literature regarding the choice and optimization of different processes for converting feedstock to bioethanol and bio-commodities; moreover, there has been some reasonable technological development in bioconversion methods over the past decade. However, the eventual cost and other important metrics relating to sustainability of biofuel production will be determined not only by the performance of the conversion process, but also by the performance of the entire supply chain from feedstock production to consumption. Moreover, in order to ensure world-class biorefinery performance, both the network and the individual components must be designed appropriately, and allocation of resources over the resulting infrastructure must effectively be performed. The goal of this work is to describe the key challenges in bioenergy supply chain modelling and then to develop a framework and methodology to show how multi-scale modelling can pave the way to answer holistic supply chain questions, such as the prospects for second generation bioenergy crops. PMID:22482032

  18. SCRL-Model for Human Space Flight Operations Enterprise Supply Chain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tucker, Brian

    2010-01-01

    Standard approach to evaluate and configure adaptable and sustainable program and mission supply chains at an enterprise level. End-to-end view. Total Lifecycle. Evaluate the readiness of the supply chain during the supply chain development phase.

  19. New models needed to manage gas supply, APPrO conference hears

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    2005-01-01

    Details of a 1 day conference designed to create more efficient interactions between the gas supply and electricity systems in Ontario and new models for gas supply and the electricity system were presented. Market efficiency, generators' perspectives on critical gas issues, an overview of the North American gas and an outline of issues concerning Ontario were discussed. A natural gas industry forecast and issues concerning marketers and producers were presented. The terms on which gas is bought and sold were discussed. Regulatory tools, cost allocation and issues relating to unbundling were also presented. Infrastructure needs were reviewed, as well as basic market structures. It was suggested that appropriate commercial service options need to be developed and approved, including cross-utility services

  20. An integrated multi-stage supply chain inventory model with imperfect production process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Soumita Kundu

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with an integrated multi-stage supply chain inventory model with the objective of cost minimization by synchronizing the replenishment decisions for procurement, production and delivery activities. The supply chain structure examined here consists of a single manufacturer with multi-buyer where manufacturer orders a fixed quantity of raw material from outside suppliers, processes the materials and delivers the finished products in unequal shipments to each customer. In this paper, we consider an imperfect production system, which produces defective items randomly and assumes that all defective items could be reworked. A simple algorithm is developed to obtain an optimal production policy, which minimizes the expected average total cost of the integrated production-inventory system.

  1. Warehousing in the Global Supply Chain Advanced Models, Tools and Applications for Storage Systems

    CERN Document Server

    2012-01-01

    With increased globalization and offshore sourcing, global supply chain management is becoming an important issue for many businesses as it involves a company's worldwide interests and suppliers rather than simply a local or national orientation. The storage systems significantly affect the level of quality of products, the customer’s service level, and the global logistic cost. The mission of warehousing systems design, control and optimization is to effectively ship products in the right place, at the right time, and in the right quantity (i.e. in any configuration) without any damages or alterations, and minimizing costs. Warehousing in the Global Supply Chain presents and discusses a set of models, tools and real applications, including a few case studies rarely presented with a sufficient detail by other literature, to illustrate the main challenges in warehousing activities. This includes all warehouse operations (from receiving to shipping), problems and issues (e.g. storage allocation, assignment,...

  2. Distribution of MEG and methanol in well-defined hydrocarbon and water systems: Experimental measurement and modeling using the CPA EoS

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Riaz, Muhammad; Yussuf, Mustafe A.; Kontogeorgis, Georgios

    2013-01-01

    + water. These data are satisfactorily correlated (binaries) and predicted (ternaries) using Cubic Plus Association (CPA) equation of state (EoS). CPA is also applied to binary LLE of aromatic hydrocarbon + water and VLE of methane + methanol. Finally the distribution of water and inhibitors (methanol...... and MEG) in various phases is modeled using CPA. The hydrocarbon phase consists of mixture-1 (methane, ethane, n-butane) or mixture-2 (methane, ethane, propane, n-butane, n-heptane, toluene and n-decane). CPA can satisfactorily predict the water content in the gas phase of the multicomponent systems...

  3. Receptor modelling study of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alghamdi, Mansour A; Alam, Mohammed S; Yin, Jianxin; Stark, Christopher; Jang, Eunhwa; Harrison, Roy M; Shamy, Magdy; Khoder, Mamdouh I; Shabbaj, Ibrahim I

    2015-02-15

    Measurements of 14 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) have been made in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, with a view to establishing the concentrations in this major city, and quantifying the contributions of major sources. Particulate and vapour forms have been sampled and analysed separately. The concentrations are compared to measurements from other sites in the Middle Eastern region and are towards the lower end of the range, being far lower than concentrations reported from Riyadh (Saudi Arabia), Assiut (Egypt) and Tehran (Iran) but broadly similar to those measured in Damascus (Syria) and higher than those measured in Kuwait. The partitioning between vapour and particle phases is similar to that in data from Egypt and China, but with many compounds showing a higher particle-associated percentage than in Birmingham (UK) possibly reflecting a higher concentration of airborne particulate matter in the former countries. Concentrations in Jeddah were significantly higher at a site close to the oil refinery and a site close to a major ring road than at a suburban site to the north of the city. Application of positive matrix factorisation to the pooled data elicited three factors accounting respectively for 17%, 33% and 50% of the measured sum of PAH and these are interpreted as arising from gasoline vehicles, industrial sources, particularly the oil refinery, and to diesel/fuel oil combustion. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Permian-Triassic maturation and multistage migration of hydrocarbons in the Assistência Formation (Irati Subgroup, Paraná Basin, Brazil: implications for the exploration model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    António Mateus

    Full Text Available New lines of geological evidence strongly suggest that the main period of hydrocarbon maturation within Assistência Formation should be Permian-Triassic, stimulated by a high geothermal gradient that also sustained various manifestations of hydrothermal activity. Three main stages of fluid/hydrocarbon migration can also be inferred on the basis of multiscale observations: confined flow in late Permian to Triassic times, depending on the local build-up of fluid pressures; heterogeneous flow in Lower Cretaceous, triggered by a rejuvenated temperature gradient assisted by the early developed permeability conditions; and a late flow possibly driven by local pressure gradients, after complete cooling of dolerite dykes/sills. The early maturation and multistage migration of hydrocarbons have significant consequences in the design of exploration models to be applied in Paraná Basin.

  5. Large-scale modeling on the fate and transport of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in multimedia over China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Y.; Liu, M.; Wada, Y.; He, X.; Sun, X.

    2017-12-01

    In recent decades, with rapid economic growth, industrial development and urbanization, expanding pollution of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) has become a diversified and complicated phenomenon in China. However, the availability of sufficient monitoring activities for PAHs in multi-compartment and the corresponding multi-interface migration processes are still limited, especially at a large geographic area. In this study, we couple the Multimedia Fate Model (MFM) to the Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model in order to consider the fugacity and the transient contamination processes. This coupled dynamic contaminant model can evaluate the detailed local variations and mass fluxes of PAHs in different environmental media (e.g., air, surface film, soil, sediment, water and vegetation) across different spatial (a county to country) and temporal (days to years) scales. This model has been applied to a large geographical domain of China at a 36 km by 36 km grid resolution. The model considers response characteristics of typical environmental medium to complex underlying surface. Results suggest that direct emission is the main input pathway of PAHs entering the atmosphere, while advection is the main outward flow of pollutants from the environment. In addition, both soil and sediment act as the main sink of PAHs and have the longest retention time. Importantly, the highest PAHs loadings are found in urbanized and densely populated regions of China, such as Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta. This model can provide a good scientific basis towards a better understanding of the large-scale dynamics of environmental pollutants for land conservation and sustainable development. In a next step, the dynamic contaminant model will be integrated with the continental-scale hydrological and water resources model (i.e., Community Water Model, CWatM) to quantify a more accurate representation and feedbacks between the hydrological cycle and water quality at

  6. Modelling silicon supply during the Last Interglacial (MIS 5e) at Lake Baikal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panizzo, V. N.; Swann, G. E. A.; Mackay, A. W.; Pashley, V.; Horstwood, M. S. A.

    2018-06-01

    Limnological reconstructions of primary productivity have demonstrated its response over Quaternary timescales to drivers such as climate change, landscape evolution and lake ontogeny. In particular, sediments from Lake Baikal, Siberia, provide a valuable uninterrupted and continuous sequence of biogenic silica (BSi) records, which document orbital and sub-orbital frequencies of regional climate change. We here extend these records via the application of stable isotope analysis of silica in diatom opal (δ30Sidiatom) from sediments covering the Last Interglacial cycle (Marine Isotope Stage [MIS] 5e; c. 130 to 115 ka BP) as a means to test the hypothesis that it was more productive than the Holocene. δ30Sidiatom data for the Last Interglacial range between +1.29 and +1.78‰, with highest values between c. 127 to 124 ka BP (+1.57 to +1.78‰). Results show that diatom dissolved silicon (DSi) utilisation, was significantly higher (p = 0.001) during MIS 5e than the current interglacial, which reflects increased diatom productivity over this time (concomitant with high diatom biovolume accumulation rates [BVAR] and warmer pollen-inferred vegetation reconstructions). Diatom BVAR are used, in tandem with δ30Sidiatom data, to model DSi supply to Lake Baikal surface waters, which shows that highest delivery was between c. 123 to 120 ka BP (reaching peak supply at c. 120 ka BP). When constrained by sedimentary mineralogical archives of catchment weathering indices (e.g. the Hydrolysis Index), data highlight the small degree of weathering intensity and therefore representation that catchment-weathering DSi sources had, over the duration of MIS 5e. Changes to DSi supply are therefore attributed to variations in within-lake conditions (e.g. turbulent mixing) over the period, where periods of both high productivity and modelled-DSi supply (e.g. strong convective mixing) account for the decreasing trend in δ30Sidiatom compositions (after c. 124 ka BP).

  7. Process modeling and supply chain design for advanced biofuel production based on bio-oil gasification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Qi

    As a potential substitute for petroleum-based fuel, second generation biofuels are playing an increasingly important role due to their economic, environmental, and social benefits. With the rapid development of biofuel industry, there has been an increasing literature on the techno-economic analysis and supply chain design for biofuel production based on a variety of production pathways. A recently proposed production pathway of advanced biofuel is to convert biomass to bio-oil at widely distributed small-scale fast pyrolysis plants, then gasify the bio-oil to syngas and upgrade the syngas to transportation fuels in centralized biorefinery. This thesis aims to investigate two types of assessments on this bio-oil gasification pathway: techno-economic analysis based on process modeling and literature data; supply chain design with a focus on optimal decisions for number of facilities to build, facility capacities and logistic decisions considering uncertainties. A detailed process modeling with corn stover as feedstock and liquid fuels as the final products is presented. Techno-economic analysis of the bio-oil gasification pathway is also discussed to assess the economic feasibility. Some preliminary results show a capital investment of 438 million dollar and minimum fuel selling price (MSP) of $5.6 per gallon of gasoline equivalent. The sensitivity analysis finds that MSP is most sensitive to internal rate of return (IRR), biomass feedstock cost, and fixed capital cost. A two-stage stochastic programming is formulated to solve the supply chain design problem considering uncertainties in biomass availability, technology advancement, and biofuel price. The first-stage makes the capital investment decisions including the locations and capacities of the decentralized fast pyrolysis plants and the centralized biorefinery while the second-stage determines the biomass and biofuel flows. The numerical results and case study illustrate that considering uncertainties can be

  8. Mathematical modeling of biotransformations of oil hydrocarbons in the marine environment of Karkinitskii Bay in the Black Sea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leonov, A.V.; Chicherina, O.V.; Fashchuk, D.Y.

    2008-01-01

    Mathematical modelling is routinely used to study the behaviour of oil hydrocarbons (OHCs) during spills. In this study, mathematical modelling was used to examine the conditions of marine environmental pollution by OHCs and its self-purification as a result of transport by water flows and biochemical decomposition. The waters of Karkinitskii Bay in the Black Sea was chosen as the study site the because the exploitation of gas deposits since the 1980s has resulted in higher OHC concentrations. The conditions of marine environmental pollution by OHCs and water self-purification were reproduced based on available data and estimates of long-term mean monthly values of temperature, transparency, total light intensity, atmospheric precipitation, photo-period, water regime, and data on concentrations of biogenic substances and OHCs in the Danube water. OHC biotransformations in the marine environment were simulated by reproducing the biochemical activity of microflora and effecting substrate consumption processes, metabolic product excretions and biomass decay. The model provided estimates of the rates of decomposition of OHCs and oxygen consumption. The model results were in good agreement with experimental data. The model estimated the time needed for OHC concentrations to reach the maximum admissible concentration after pollution of the marine environment. 41 refs., 2 tabs., 6 figs

  9. Mathematical modeling of biotransformations of oil hydrocarbons in the marine environment of Karkinitskii Bay in the Black Sea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leonov, A.V.; Chicherina, O.V. [Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow (Russian Federation). Inst. of Oceanology; Fashchuk, D.Y. [Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow (Russian Federation). Inst. of Geography

    2008-07-01

    Mathematical modelling is routinely used to study the behaviour of oil hydrocarbons (OHCs) during spills. In this study, mathematical modelling was used to examine the conditions of marine environmental pollution by OHCs and its self-purification as a result of transport by water flows and biochemical decomposition. The waters of Karkinitskii Bay in the Black Sea was chosen as the study site the because the exploitation of gas deposits since the 1980s has resulted in higher OHC concentrations. The conditions of marine environmental pollution by OHCs and water self-purification were reproduced based on available data and estimates of long-term mean monthly values of temperature, transparency, total light intensity, atmospheric precipitation, photo-period, water regime, and data on concentrations of biogenic substances and OHCs in the Danube water. OHC biotransformations in the marine environment were simulated by reproducing the biochemical activity of microflora and effecting substrate consumption processes, metabolic product excretions and biomass decay. The model provided estimates of the rates of decomposition of OHCs and oxygen consumption. The model results were in good agreement with experimental data. The model estimated the time needed for OHC concentrations to reach the maximum admissible concentration after pollution of the marine environment. 41 refs., 2 tabs., 6 figs.

  10. Simulating the dynamics of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) in contaminated soil through composting by COP-Compost model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yuan; Guan, Yidong; Shi, Qi

    2015-02-01

    Organic pollutants (OPs) are potentially present in composts, and the assessment of their content and bioaccessibility in these composts is of paramount importance to minimize the risk of soil contamination and improve soil fertility. In this work, integration of the dynamics of organic carbon (OC) and OPs in an overall experimental framework is first proposed and adopted to validate the applicability of the COP-Compost model and to calibrate the model parameters on the basis of what has been achieved with the COP-Compost model. The COP-Compost model was evaluated via composting experiments containing 16 US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and the sorption coefficient (Kd) values of two types of OP: fluorenthene (FLT) and pyrene (PHE). In our study, these compounds are used to characterize the sequential extraction and are quantified as soluble, sorbed, and non-extractable fractions. The model was calibrated, and coupling the OC and OP modules improved the simulation of the OP behavior and bioaccessibility during composting. The results show good agreement between the simulated and experimental results describing the evolution of different organic pollutants using the OP module, as well as the coupling module. However, no clear relationship is found between the Kd and the property of organic fractions. Further estimation of parameters is still necessary to modify the insufficiency of this present research.

  11. Development of a global electricity supply model and investigation of electricity supply by renewable energies with a focus on energy storage requirements for Europe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Troendle, Tobias Wolfgang

    2014-12-12

    Electricity supply at present requires about 38% of the global primary energy demand and it is likely to rise further in the coming decades. Facing major problems, such as limited resources of fuels and an ongoing anthropogenic climate change, a sustainable electricity supply based on renewable energies is absolutely vital. Wind and solar power will play an extensive role in future supplies but require energy storage capacities to meet electricity demand. To investigate the relationship of power plant mix and required energy storage capacity, a computer model based on global weather data has been developed to enable the simulation of electricity supply scenarios by up to ten different power plant types for various regions. The focus of the investigation has been on the energy storage requirements of an electricity supply for Europe by wind and solar power. The minimum required energy storage capacity for a totally weather dependent electricity supply occurs at a ratio of 30% wind and 70% photovoltaic (PV) power plant capacity installed. Thus, the required energy storage capacity rises from a transition of to-day's electricity supply to the afore-mentioned 100% renewable wind and PV scenario exponentially to about 150 TWh (3.8% of the annual electricity demand). The installation of additional excess wind and PV power plant capacity was seen to be an efficient way to reduce the required energy storage. Already 10% excess capacity lead to a reduction by 50% of the required storage capacity. To use different storage technologies in an optimised way in terms of storage capacity and efficiency, the storage tasks can be separated into a daily and a seasonal usage. While the seasonal storage capacity has to be about two orders of magnitude larger than the required capacity of the storage for the daily cycle, the sum of stored energy during one year is almost equal for the long and short time storage. In summary, an electricity supply by wind and PV power was shown to

  12. Development of a global electricity supply model and investigation of electricity supply by renewable energies with a focus on energy storage requirements for Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Troendle, Tobias Wolfgang

    2014-01-01

    Electricity supply at present requires about 38% of the global primary energy demand and it is likely to rise further in the coming decades. Facing major problems, such as limited resources of fuels and an ongoing anthropogenic climate change, a sustainable electricity supply based on renewable energies is absolutely vital. Wind and solar power will play an extensive role in future supplies but require energy storage capacities to meet electricity demand. To investigate the relationship of power plant mix and required energy storage capacity, a computer model based on global weather data has been developed to enable the simulation of electricity supply scenarios by up to ten different power plant types for various regions. The focus of the investigation has been on the energy storage requirements of an electricity supply for Europe by wind and solar power. The minimum required energy storage capacity for a totally weather dependent electricity supply occurs at a ratio of 30% wind and 70% photovoltaic (PV) power plant capacity installed. Thus, the required energy storage capacity rises from a transition of to-day's electricity supply to the afore-mentioned 100% renewable wind and PV scenario exponentially to about 150 TWh (3.8% of the annual electricity demand). The installation of additional excess wind and PV power plant capacity was seen to be an efficient way to reduce the required energy storage. Already 10% excess capacity lead to a reduction by 50% of the required storage capacity. To use different storage technologies in an optimised way in terms of storage capacity and efficiency, the storage tasks can be separated into a daily and a seasonal usage. While the seasonal storage capacity has to be about two orders of magnitude larger than the required capacity of the storage for the daily cycle, the sum of stored energy during one year is almost equal for the long and short time storage. In summary, an electricity supply by wind and PV power was shown to

  13. Managing risks in the fisheries supply chain using House of Risk Framework (HOR) and Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, T. L. T.; Tran, T. T.; Huynh, T. P.; Ho, T. K. D.; Le, A. T.; Do, T. K. H.

    2018-04-01

    One of the sectors which contributes importantly to the development of Vietnam economy is fishery industry. However, during recent year, it has been witnessed many difficulties on managing the performance of the fishery supply chain operations as a whole. In this paper, a framework for supply chain risk management (SCRM) is proposed. Initially, all the activities are mapped by using Supply Chain Operations Reference (SCOR) model. Next, the risk ranking is analyzed in House of Risk. Furthermore, interpretive structural modeling (ISM) is used to identify inter-relationships among supply chain risks and to visualize the risks according to their levels. For illustration, the model has been tested in several case studies with fishery companies in Can Tho, Mekong Delta. This study identifies 22 risk events and 20 risk agents through the supply chain. Also, the risk priority could be used for further House of Risk with proactive actions in future studies.

  14. Change within Purchasing and Supply Management Organisations – Assessing the Claims from Maturity Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holm Andreasen, Peter; Gammelgaard, Britta

    2018-01-01

    It is a wide-held assumption that professional development and change within purchasing and supply management (PSM) organisations can be explained and guided by a maturity model. In this paper the guidance which the maturity model concept offers to understand a PSM organisation's performance...... an organisational change framework, composing 1) movement transitions, 2) scalability of change, 3) acceptability of change, and 4) the substantive element of change. The research found that extant PSM maturity models are too rigid for PSM managers to apply, and although maturity models are commonly accepted in PSM...... is assessed. The methodology is based on the outcomes of a literature review of PSM maturity models, development of an organisational change framework and the learning from three qualitative case studies. An alternative understanding of the development of the PSM organisation is offered through...

  15. Supply Chain Model with Stochastic Lead Time, Trade-Credit Financing, and Transportation Discounts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sung Jun Kim

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This model extends a two-echelon supply chain model by considering the trade-credit policy, transportations discount to make a coordination mechanism between transportation discounts, trade-credit financing, number of shipments, quality improvement of products, and reduced setup cost in such a way that the total cost of the whole system can be reduced, where the supplier offers trade-credit-period to the buyer. For buyer, the backorder rate is considered as variable. There are two investments to reduce setup cost and to improve quality of products. The model assumes lead time-dependent backorder rate, where the lead time is stochastic in nature. By using the trade-credit policy, the model gives how the credit-period would be determined to achieve the win-win outcome. An iterative algorithm is designed to obtain the global optimum results. Numerical example and sensitivity analysis are given to illustrate the model.

  16. Model studies for evaluating the neurobehavioral effects of complex hydrocarbon solvents. II. Neurobehavioral effects of white spirit in rat and human

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lammers, J.H.C.M.; Emmen, H.H.; Muijser, H.; Hoogendijk, E.M.G.; McKee, R.H.; Owen, D.E.; Kulig, B.M.

    2007-01-01

    To evaluate the neurobehavioral effects of hydrocarbon solvents and to establish a working model for extrapolating animal test data to humans, studies were conducted which involved inhalation exposure of rats and humans to white spirit (WS). The specific objectives of these studies were to evaluate

  17. Comparing risk of failure models in water supply networks using ROC curves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Debon, A.; Carrion, A.; Cabrera, E.; Solano, H.

    2010-01-01

    The problem of predicting the failure of water mains has been considered from different perspectives and using several methodologies in engineering literature. Nowadays, it is important to be able to accurately calculate the failure probabilities of pipes over time, since water company profits and service quality for citizens depend on pipe survival; forecasting pipe failures could have important economic and social implications. Quantitative tools (such as managerial or statistical indicators and reliable databases) are required in order to assess the current and future state of networks. Companies managing these networks are trying to establish models for evaluating the risk of failure in order to develop a proactive approach to the renewal process, instead of using traditional reactive pipe substitution schemes. The main objective of this paper is to compare models for evaluating the risk of failure in water supply networks. Using real data from a water supply company, this study has identified which network characteristics affect the risk of failure and which models better fit data to predict service breakdown. The comparison using the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) graph leads us to the conclusion that the best model is a generalized linear model. Also, we propose a procedure that can be applied to a pipe failure database, allowing the most appropriate decision rule to be chosen.

  18. Comparing risk of failure models in water supply networks using ROC curves

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Debon, A., E-mail: andeau@eio.upv.e [Centro de Gestion de la Calidad y del Cambio, Dpt. Estadistica e Investigacion Operativa Aplicadas y Calidad, Universidad Politecnica de Valencia, E-46022 Valencia (Spain); Carrion, A. [Centro de Gestion de la Calidad y del Cambio, Dpt. Estadistica e Investigacion Operativa Aplicadas y Calidad, Universidad Politecnica de Valencia, E-46022 Valencia (Spain); Cabrera, E. [Dpto. De Ingenieria Hidraulica Y Medio Ambiente, Instituto Tecnologico del Agua, Universidad Politecnica de Valencia, E-46022 Valencia (Spain); Solano, H. [Universidad Diego Portales, Santiago (Chile)

    2010-01-15

    The problem of predicting the failure of water mains has been considered from different perspectives and using several methodologies in engineering literature. Nowadays, it is important to be able to accurately calculate the failure probabilities of pipes over time, since water company profits and service quality for citizens depend on pipe survival; forecasting pipe failures could have important economic and social implications. Quantitative tools (such as managerial or statistical indicators and reliable databases) are required in order to assess the current and future state of networks. Companies managing these networks are trying to establish models for evaluating the risk of failure in order to develop a proactive approach to the renewal process, instead of using traditional reactive pipe substitution schemes. The main objective of this paper is to compare models for evaluating the risk of failure in water supply networks. Using real data from a water supply company, this study has identified which network characteristics affect the risk of failure and which models better fit data to predict service breakdown. The comparison using the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) graph leads us to the conclusion that the best model is a generalized linear model. Also, we propose a procedure that can be applied to a pipe failure database, allowing the most appropriate decision rule to be chosen.

  19. Simulation modelling of central order processing system under resource sharing strategy in demand-driven garment supply chains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, K.; Thomassey, S.; Zeng, X.

    2017-10-01

    In this paper we proposed a central order processing system under resource sharing strategy for demand-driven garment supply chains to increase supply chain performances. We examined this system by using simulation technology. Simulation results showed that significant improvement in various performance indicators was obtained in new collaborative model with proposed system.

  20. An open source hydroeconomic model for California's water supply system: PyVIN

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dogan, M. S.; White, E.; Herman, J. D.; Hart, Q.; Merz, J.; Medellin-Azuara, J.; Lund, J. R.

    2016-12-01

    Models help operators and decision makers explore and compare different management and policy alternatives, better allocate scarce resources, and predict the future behavior of existing or proposed water systems. Hydroeconomic models are useful tools to increase benefits or decrease costs of managing water. Bringing hydrology and economics together, these models provide a framework for different disciplines that share similar objectives. This work proposes a new model to evaluate operation and adaptation strategies under existing and future hydrologic conditions for California's interconnected water system. This model combines the network structure of CALVIN, a statewide optimization model for California's water infrastructure, along with an open source solver written in the Python programming language. With the flexibilities of the model, reservoir operations, including water supply and hydropower, groundwater pumping, and the Delta water operations and requirements can now be better represented. Given time series of hydrologic inputs to the model, typical outputs include urban, agricultural and wildlife refuge water deliveries and shortage costs, conjunctive use of surface and groundwater systems, and insights into policy and management decisions, such as capacity expansion and groundwater management policies. Water market operations also represented in the model, allocating water from lower-valued users to higher-valued users. PyVIN serves as a cross-platform, extensible model to evaluate systemwide water operations. PyVIN separates data from the model structure, enabling model to be easily applied to other parts of the world where water is a scarce resource.

  1. A mixed integer linear programming model for operational planning of a biodiesel supply chain network from used cooking oil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jonrinaldi, Hadiguna, Rika Ampuh; Salastino, Rades

    2017-11-01

    Environmental consciousness has paid many attention nowadays. It is not only about how to recycle, remanufacture or reuse used end products but it is also how to optimize the operations of the reverse system. A previous research has proposed a design of reverse supply chain of biodiesel network from used cooking oil. However, the research focused on the design of the supply chain strategy not the operations of the supply chain. It only decided how to design the structure of the supply chain in the next few years, and the process of each stage will be conducted in the supply chain system in general. The supply chain system has not considered operational policies to be conducted by the companies in the supply chain. Companies need a policy for each stage of the supply chain operations to be conducted so as to produce the optimal supply chain system, including how to use all the resources that have been designed in order to achieve the objectives of the supply chain system. Therefore, this paper proposes a model to optimize the operational planning of a biodiesel supply chain network from used cooking oil. A mixed integer linear programming is developed to model the operational planning of biodiesel supply chain in order to minimize the total operational cost of the supply chain. Based on the implementation of the model developed, the total operational cost of the biodiesel supply chain incurred by the system is less than the total operational cost of supply chain based on the previous research during seven days of operational planning about amount of 2,743,470.00 or 0.186%. Production costs contributed to 74.6 % of total operational cost and the cost of purchasing the used cooking oil contributed to 24.1 % of total operational cost. So, the system should pay more attention to these two aspects as changes in the value of these aspects will cause significant effects to the change in the total operational cost of the supply chain.

  2. Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons - fate and long-range atmospheric transport studied using a global model, EMAC-SVOC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Octaviani, Mega; Tost, Holger; Lammel, Gerhard

    2017-04-01

    Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are emitted by incomplete combustion from fossil fuel, vehicles, and biomass burning. They may persist in environmental compartments, pose a health hazard and may bio accumulate along food chains. The ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model had been used to simulate global tropospheric, stratospheric chemistry and climate. In this study, we improve the model to include simulations of the transport and fate of semi-volatile organic compounds (SVOC). The EMAC-SVOC model takes into account essential environmental processes including gas-particle partitioning, dry and wet deposition, chemical and bio-degradation, and volatilization from sea surface, soils, vegetation, and snow. The model was evaluated against observational data in the Arctic, mid-latitudes, and tropics, and further applied to study total environmental lifetime and long-range transport potential (LRTP) of PAHs. We selected four compounds for study, spanning a wide range of volatility, i.e., phenanthrene, fluoranthene, pyrene, and benzo[a]pyrene. Several LRTP indicators were investigated, including the Arctic contamination potential, meridional spreading, and zonal and meridional fluxes to remote regions.

  3. Receptor modelling study of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alghamdi, Mansour A. [Department of Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Meteorology, Environment and Arid Land Agriculture, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah (Saudi Arabia); Alam, Mohammed S., E-mail: m.s.alam@bham.ac.uk [Division of Environmental Health and Risk Management, School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham B15 2TT (United Kingdom); Yin, Jianxin; Stark, Christopher; Jang, Eunhwa [Division of Environmental Health and Risk Management, School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham B15 2TT (United Kingdom); Harrison, Roy M., E-mail: r.m.harrison@bham.ac.uk [Department of Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Meteorology, Environment and Arid Land Agriculture, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah (Saudi Arabia); Division of Environmental Health and Risk Management, School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham B15 2TT (United Kingdom); Shamy, Magdy; Khoder, Mamdouh I.; Shabbaj, Ibrahim I. [Department of Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Meteorology, Environment and Arid Land Agriculture, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah (Saudi Arabia)

    2015-02-15

    Measurements of 14 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) have been made in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, with a view to establishing the concentrations in this major city, and quantifying the contributions of major sources. Particulate and vapour forms have been sampled and analysed separately. The concentrations are compared to measurements from other sites in the Middle Eastern region and are towards the lower end of the range, being far lower than concentrations reported from Riyadh (Saudi Arabia), Assiut (Egypt) and Tehran (Iran) but broadly similar to those measured in Damascus (Syria) and higher than those measured in Kuwait. The partitioning between vapour and particle phases is similar to that in data from Egypt and China, but with many compounds showing a higher particle-associated percentage than in Birmingham (UK) possibly reflecting a higher concentration of airborne particulate matter in the former countries. Concentrations in Jeddah were significantly higher at a site close to the oil refinery and a site close to a major ring road than at a suburban site to the north of the city. Application of positive matrix factorisation to the pooled data elicited three factors accounting respectively for 17%, 33% and 50% of the measured sum of PAH and these are interpreted as arising from gasoline vehicles, industrial sources, particularly the oil refinery, and to diesel/fuel oil combustion. - Highlights: • Measurements of 14 PAH compounds in vapour and particulate phases at three sites. • Comparison of concentrations across Jeddah and Middle Eastern regions. • Application of positive matrix factorisation to identify possible sources.

  4. Receptor modelling study of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alghamdi, Mansour A.; Alam, Mohammed S.; Yin, Jianxin; Stark, Christopher; Jang, Eunhwa; Harrison, Roy M.; Shamy, Magdy; Khoder, Mamdouh I.; Shabbaj, Ibrahim I.

    2015-01-01

    Measurements of 14 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) have been made in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, with a view to establishing the concentrations in this major city, and quantifying the contributions of major sources. Particulate and vapour forms have been sampled and analysed separately. The concentrations are compared to measurements from other sites in the Middle Eastern region and are towards the lower end of the range, being far lower than concentrations reported from Riyadh (Saudi Arabia), Assiut (Egypt) and Tehran (Iran) but broadly similar to those measured in Damascus (Syria) and higher than those measured in Kuwait. The partitioning between vapour and particle phases is similar to that in data from Egypt and China, but with many compounds showing a higher particle-associated percentage than in Birmingham (UK) possibly reflecting a higher concentration of airborne particulate matter in the former countries. Concentrations in Jeddah were significantly higher at a site close to the oil refinery and a site close to a major ring road than at a suburban site to the north of the city. Application of positive matrix factorisation to the pooled data elicited three factors accounting respectively for 17%, 33% and 50% of the measured sum of PAH and these are interpreted as arising from gasoline vehicles, industrial sources, particularly the oil refinery, and to diesel/fuel oil combustion. - Highlights: • Measurements of 14 PAH compounds in vapour and particulate phases at three sites. • Comparison of concentrations across Jeddah and Middle Eastern regions. • Application of positive matrix factorisation to identify possible sources

  5. The risk management of perishable supply chain based on coloured Petri Net modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lu Liu

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The supply chain of perishable products is a combination of information organization, sharing and integration. The information modeling of supply chain is constructed to abstract key quality information including environment information, processing procedures and product quality assessments based on principle of quality safety factors and property of decay rate. The coloured Petri Net is applied for integrated description of independent information classification, aiming at risk identification and risk management framework. Well, according to the quality deterioration tendency, risk grades management and decision-making system are established. Practically, the circulation system of aquatic products is studied in this paper for full processing description. The simulation experiments are manipulated on environmental information, processing information and product quality information by the coloured Petri Net. Eventually, the conclusion turns out precisely as such that the coloured Petri Net conclusive for information classification and information transmission while integrated information management is available of efficient risk identification and decision-making system in supply chain of perishable products. Meanwhile, the validity of evaluating management and shelf-life estimation of perishable products are technically feasible.

  6. Marrying project deliverability models and labour supply for the oil sands

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Albright, R.; Whitaker, C.A. [Fluor Canada Ltd., Calgary, AB (Canada)

    2005-07-01

    Alberta is predicting a labour shortage to support the construction and operation of planned oil sands projects in the region. This paper provided a framework of options available to stakeholders in addressing resource constraints from the viewpoint of Fluor Canada Ltd. A background of previous projects was presented, which highlighted various strategies used in the management of human resources issues. Strategies included local hiring through the Alberta-based trade unions; recruitment from other Canadian provinces; a higher ratio of apprentices; extremely high utilization crew schedules; and extended use of overtime. It was noted that these strategies resulted in some cost overruns and lower productivity levels. A productivity analysis was used to determine and resolve productivity issues. Various regulations in Alberta were discussed in relation to training programs and skilled immigrants. Various international training facilities operated by Fluor were reviewed. A factor model of human resources issues was presented. Summaries of supply chain management, systems, and technologies were presented. Issues concerning prefabrication, pre-assembly, modularization and offsite fabrication were discussed. It was concluded that by taking advantage of lessons learned in previous projects a solid foundation is set from which to plan for future requirements. Successful project execution is achieved by taking advantage of current technology; enhancing modular construction standards; and using supply chain management techniques and enhanced labour supply solutions. tabs., figs.

  7. Interorganizational Knowledge Division Decision Model Based on Cooperative Innovation of Supply Chain System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Zhang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Within interorganizational cooperative innovation of construction supply chain system, the achievement of project value-adding could be reflected by several factors, such as project-based organizational effect level, and the relationship between project cooperative innovation objectives. In this paper, based on the assumption of equal cooperation between project-based organizations, we selected the knowledge cooperation between the owner and contractor in construction supply chain system as research object. From the perspective of maximizing project value-adding and the relationship of effort cost between knowledge input and innovation stage in consideration, we established the knowledge collaborative incentive model for interorganizational cooperative innovation of construction supply chain system and proposed the first-order and second-order approaches. Then we conducted the digital simulation and example analysis, its results showed that if the owner has the capability to achieve project value-adding in knowledge cooperation, he would adopt a part commissioned way. Otherwise, a fully commissioned way would be better.

  8. A supply chain model to improve the beef quality distribution using investment analysis: A case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lupita, Alessandra; Rangkuti, Sabrina Heriza; Sutopo, Wahyudi; Hisjam, Muh.

    2017-11-01

    There are significant differences related to the quality and price of the beef commodity in traditional market and modern market in Indonesia. Those are caused by very different treatments of the commodity. The different treatments are in the slaughter lines, the transportation from the abattoir to the outlet, the display system, and the control system. If the problem is not solved by the Government, the gap will result a great loss of the consumer regarding to the quality and sustainability of traditional traders business because of the declining interest in purchasing beef in the traditional markets. This article aims to improve the quality of beef in traditional markets. This study proposed A Supply Chain Model that involves the schemes of investment and government incentive for improving the distribution system. The supply chain model is can be formulated using the Mix Integer Linear Programming (MILP) and solved using the IBM®ILOG®CPLEX software. The results show that the proposed model can be used to determine the priority of programs for improving the quality and sustainability business of traditional beef merchants. By using the models, The Government can make a decision to consider incentives for improving the condition.

  9. Long-term trends in U.S. gas supply and prices: 1991 edition of the GRI baseline projection of U.S. energy supply and demand to 2010, April 1991. Gas research insights

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woods, T.J.

    1991-04-01

    The report summarizes the gas supply and price outlook in the 1991 Edition of the GRI Baseline Projection of U.S. Energy Supply and Demand. Projected U.S. gas production, gas imports, and other sources of gas supply are discussed along with the sensitivity of the outlook to changes in price expectations. The critical uncertainties and issues affecting the gas supply and price outlook are discussed. Appendixes include a comparison of the 1991 and the 1989 projections of gas supply and price trends; and a description of the GRI Hydrocarbon Model

  10. Regional differences of outpatient physician supply as a theoretical economic and empirical generalized linear model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scholz, Stefan; Graf von der Schulenburg, Johann-Matthias; Greiner, Wolfgang

    2015-11-17

    Regional differences in physician supply can be found in many health care systems, regardless of their organizational and financial structure. A theoretical model is developed for the physicians' decision on office allocation, covering demand-side factors and a consumption time function. To test the propositions following the theoretical model, generalized linear models were estimated to explain differences in 412 German districts. Various factors found in the literature were included to control for physicians' regional preferences. Evidence in favor of the first three propositions of the theoretical model could be found. Specialists show a stronger association to higher populated districts than GPs. Although indicators for regional preferences are significantly correlated with physician density, their coefficients are not as high as population density. If regional disparities should be addressed by political actions, the focus should be to counteract those parameters representing physicians' preferences in over- and undersupplied regions.

  11. Cracking hydrocarbons

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Forwood, G F; Lane, M; Taplay, J G

    1921-10-07

    In cracking and hydrogenating hydrocarbon oils by passing their vapors together with steam over heated carbon derived from shale, wood, peat or other vegetable or animal matter, the gases from the condenser are freed from sulfuretted hydrogen, and preferably also from carbon dioxide, and passed together with oil vapors and steam through the retort. Carbon dioxide may be removed by passage through slaked lime, and sulfuretted hydrogen by means of hydrated oxide of iron. Vapors from high-boiling oils and those from low-boiling oils are passed alternately through the retort, so that carbon deposited from the high-boiling oils is used up during treatment of low-boiling oils.

  12. Distilling hydrocarbons

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bataafsche, N V; de Brey, J H.C.

    1918-10-30

    Hydrocarbons containing a very volatile constituent and less volatile constituents, such as casing-head gases, still gases from the distillation of crude petroleum and bituminous shale are separated into their constituents by rectification under pressure; a pressure of 20 atmospheres and limiting temperatures of 150/sup 0/C and 40/sup 0/C are mentioned as suitable. The mixture may be subjected to a preliminary treatment consisting in heating to a temperature below the maximum rectification temperature at a pressure greater than that proposed to be used in the rectification.

  13. A capacity expansion planning model for integrated water desalination and power supply chain problem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saif, Y.; Almansoori, A.

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Water and power supply chain is considered by a discrete optimization model. • The model examines the capacity expansion and operation of the supply chain problem. • Renewable/alternative power technologies and carbon mitigation are considered. • A case study of Abu Dhabi in UAE is examined as an application of the model. - Abstract: Cogeneration of water and power in integrated cogeneration production plants is a common practice in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries. There are several combinations of water desalination and power technologies which give significant adverse environmental impact. Renewable and alternative energy technologies have been recently proposed as alternative power production paths in the water and power sector. In this study, we examine the optimal capacity expansion of water and power infrastructure over an extended planning horizon. A generic mixed integer linear programming model is developed to assist in the decision making process on: (1) optimal installation of cogeneration expansion capacities; (2) optimal installation of renewable and alternative power plants; (3) optimal operation of the integrated water and power supply chain over large geographical areas. Furthermore, the model considers the installation of carbon capture methods in fossil-based power plants. A case study will be presented to illustrate the mathematical programming application for the Emirate of Abu Dhabi (AD) in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The case study is solved reflecting different scenarios: base case scenario, integration of renewable and alternative technologies scenario, and CO_2 reduction targets scenario. The results show that increased carbon tax values up to 150 $/ton-CO_2 gives a maximum 3% cost increase for the supply chain net present value. The installation of carbon capture methods is not an economical solution due to its high operation energy requirements in the order of 370 kW h per ton of captured CO_2

  14. Modelling renewable supply chain for electricity generation with forest, fossil, and wood-waste fuels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Palander, Teijo

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, a multiple objective model to large-scale and long-term industrial energy supply chain scheduling problems is considered. The problems include the allocation of a number of fossil, peat, and wood-waste fuel procurement chains to an energy plant during different periods. This decision environment is further complicated by sequence-dependent procurement chains for forest fuels. A dynamic linear programming model can be efficiently used for modelling energy flows in fuel procurement planning. However, due to the complex nature of the problem, the resulting model cannot be directly used to solve the combined heat and electricity production problem in a manner that is relevant to the energy industry. Therefore, this approach was used with a multiple objective programming model to better describe the combinatorial complexity of the scheduling task. The properties of this methodology are discussed and four examples of how the model works based on real-world data and optional peat fuel tax, feed-in tariff of electricity and energy efficiency constraints are presented. The energy industry as a whole is subject to policy decisions regarding renewable energy production and energy efficiency regulation. These decisions should be made on the basis of comprehensive techno-economic analysis using local energy supply chain models. -- Highlights: → The energy policy decisions are made using comprehensive techno-economic analysis. → Peat tax, feed-in tariff and energy efficiency increases renewable energy production. → The potential of peat procurement deviates from the current assumptions of managers. → The dynamic MOLP model could easily be adapted to a changing decision environment.

  15. Source apportionment of the carcinogenic potential of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) associated to airborne PM10 by a PMF model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Callén, M S; Iturmendi, A; López, J M; Mastral, A M

    2014-02-01

    In order to perform a study of the carcinogenic potential of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH), benzo(a)pyrene equivalent (BaP-eq) concentration was calculated and modelled by a receptor model based on positive matrix factorization (PMF). Nineteen PAH associated to airborne PM10 of Zaragoza, Spain, were quantified during the sampling period 2001-2009 and used as potential variables by the PMF model. Afterwards, multiple linear regression analysis was used to quantify the potential sources of BaP-eq. Five sources were obtained as the optimal solution and vehicular emission was identified as the main carcinogenic source (35 %) followed by heavy-duty vehicles (28 %), light-oil combustion (18 %), natural gas (10 %) and coal combustion (9 %). Two of the most prevailing directions contributing to this carcinogenic character were the NE and N directions associated with a highway, industrial parks and a paper factory. The lifetime lung cancer risk exceeded the unit risk of 8.7 x 10(-5) per ng/m(3) BaP in both winter and autumn seasons and the most contributing source was the vehicular emission factor becoming an important issue in control strategies.

  16. The General Evolving Model for Energy Supply-Demand Network with Local-World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Mei; Han, Dun; Li, Dandan; Fang, Cuicui

    2013-10-01

    In this paper, two general bipartite network evolving models for energy supply-demand network with local-world are proposed. The node weight distribution, the "shifting coefficient" and the scaling exponent of two different kinds of nodes are presented by the mean-field theory. The numerical results of the node weight distribution and the edge weight distribution are also investigated. The production's shifted power law (SPL) distribution of coal enterprises and the installed capacity's distribution of power plants in the US are obtained from the empirical analysis. Numerical simulations and empirical results are given to verify the theoretical results.

  17. A GRASP model in network design for two-stage supply chain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hassan Javanshir

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available We consider a capacitated facility location problem (CFLP which contains a production facility and distribution centers (DCs supplying retailers' demand. The primary purpose is to locate distribution centres in the network and the objective is the minimization of the sum of fixed facility location, pipeline inventory, safety stock and lost sales. We use Greedy randomized adaptive search procedures (GRASP to solve the model. The preliminary results indicate that the proposed method of this paper could provide competitive results in reasonable amount time.

  18. Models of supply function equilibrium with applications to the electricity industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aromi, J. Daniel

    Electricity market design requires tools that result in a better understanding of incentives of generators and consumers. Chapter 1 and 2 provide tools and applications of these tools to analyze incentive problems in electricity markets. In chapter 1, models of supply function equilibrium (SFE) with asymmetric bidders are studied. I prove the existence and uniqueness of equilibrium in an asymmetric SFE model. In addition, I propose a simple algorithm to calculate numerically the unique equilibrium. As an application, a model of investment decisions is considered that uses the asymmetric SFE as an input. In this model, firms can invest in different technologies, each characterized by distinct variable and fixed costs. In chapter 2, option contracts are introduced to a supply function equilibrium (SFE) model. The uniqueness of the equilibrium in the spot market is established. Comparative statics results on the effect of option contracts on the equilibrium price are presented. A multi-stage game where option contracts are traded before the spot market stage is considered. When contracts are optimally procured by a central authority, the selected profile of option contracts is such that the spot market price equals marginal cost for any load level resulting in a significant reduction in cost. If load serving entities (LSEs) are price takers, in equilibrium, there is no trade of option contracts. Even when LSEs have market power, the central authority's solution cannot be implemented in equilibrium. In chapter 3, we consider a game in which a buyer must repeatedly procure an input from a set of firms. In our model, the buyer is able to sign long term contracts that establish the likelihood with which the next period contract is awarded to an entrant or the incumbent. We find that the buyer finds it optimal to favor the incumbent, this generates more intense competition between suppliers. In a two period model we are able to completely characterize the optimal mechanism.

  19. A split-path schema-based RFID data storage model in supply chain management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Hua; Wu, Quanyuan; Lin, Yisong; Zhang, Jianfeng

    2013-05-03

    In modern supply chain management systems, Radio Frequency IDentification (RFID) technology has become an indispensable sensor technology and massive RFID data sets are expected to become commonplace. More and more space and time are needed to store and process such huge amounts of RFID data, and there is an increasing realization that the existing approaches cannot satisfy the requirements of RFID data management. In this paper, we present a split-path schema-based RFID data storage model. With a data separation mechanism, the massive RFID data produced in supply chain management systems can be stored and processed more efficiently. Then a tree structure-based path splitting approach is proposed to intelligently and automatically split the movement paths of products . Furthermore, based on the proposed new storage model, we design the relational schema to store the path information and time information of tags, and some typical query templates and SQL statements are defined. Finally, we conduct various experiments to measure the effect and performance of our model and demonstrate that it performs significantly better than the baseline approach in both the data expression and path-oriented RFID data query performance.

  20. SUPPLY –CHAIN AND LOGIC MODELS FOR THE TEXTILE AND CLOTHING COMPANIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    VISILEANU Emilia

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The textile and clothing industry is characterized by specific supply-chain models with companies situated in a complex cluster type structure. Depending on the size, the volume and the variety of production, companies can be classified as follows: large companies, griffes, medium size companies and subcontracting companies. The logic of companies is defined by the main feature of the textile and clothing field, namely the logic of collections, determined by the seasonality and classified into several types: planning, fast-fashion, fast fashion/ planning. The market share defined by stylistic content, product quality and price determine their typology: mass-market, bridge, diffusion, prêt-a-porter/haute-couture. The study conducted on a number of companies in the textile-clothing industry revealed the following: high share of SMEs (75%, dominant role of garments in the production (74.5%, fast-fashion logic of imitating companies is predominant (94% and mass-market type products have the highest market share (71%. Success in national and international challenges that must be faced by the textile - clothing sector: complete liberalization of world trade, the implementation of quality standards, the adoption of the EU Customs Code and relocation can be provided only by changing the supply -chain models and business strategies with a focus on short series products with high customization and fictionalization, new models of e-commerce services, e-business, etc

  1. The Development of a Canine Anorectal Autotransplantation Model Based on Blood Supply: A Preliminary Case Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakamura, Tatsuo; Sato, Tomoyuki; Naito, Munekazu; Fujii, Satoshi; Mihara, Makoto; Koshima, Isao

    2012-01-01

    Colostomy is conventionally the only treatment for anal dysfunction. Recently, a few trials of anorectal transplantation in animals have been published; however, further development of this technique is required. Moreover, it is crucial to perform this research in dogs, which resemble humans in anorectal anatomy and biology. We designed a canine anorectal transplantation model, wherein anorectal autotransplantation was performed by anastomoses of the rectum, inferior mesenteric artery (IMA) and vein, and pudendal nerves. Resting pressure in the anal canal and anal canal pressure fluctuation were measured before and after surgery. Graft pathology was examined three days after surgery. The anal blood supply was compared with that in three beagles using indocyanine green (ICG) fluorescence angiography. The anorectal graft had sufficient arterial blood supply from the IMA; however, the graft’s distal end was congested and necrotized. Functional examination demonstrated reduced resting pressure and the appearance of an irregular anal canal pressure wave after surgery. ICG angiography showed that the pudendal arteries provided more blood flow than the IMA to the anal segment. This is the first canine model of preliminary anorectal autotransplantation, and it demonstrates the possibility of establishing a transplantation model in dogs using appropriate vascular anastomoses, thus contributing to the progress of anorectal transplantation. PMID:22970198

  2. A hydrologic-economic modeling approach for analysis of urban water supply dynamics in Chennai, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srinivasan, Veena; Gorelick, Steven M.; Goulder, Lawrence

    2010-07-01

    In this paper, we discuss a challenging water resources problem in a developing world city, Chennai, India. The goal is to reconstruct past system behavior and diagnose the causes of a major water crisis. In order to do this, we develop a hydrologic-engineering-economic model to address the complexity of urban water supply arising from consumers' dependence on multiple interconnected sources of water. We integrate different components of the urban water system: water flowing into the reservoir system; diversion and distribution by the public water utility; groundwater flow in the aquifer beneath the city; supply, demand, and prices in the informal tanker-truck-based water market; and consumer behavior. Both the economic and physical impacts of consumers' dependence on multiple sources of water are quantified. The model is calibrated over the period 2002-2006 using a range of hydrologic and socio-economic data. The model's results highlight the inadequacy of the reservoir system and the buffering role played by the urban aquifer and consumers' coping investments during multiyear droughts.

  3. A Split-Path Schema-Based RFID Data Storage Model in Supply Chain Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianfeng Zhang

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available In modern supply chain management systems, Radio Frequency IDentification (RFID technology has become an indispensable sensor technology and massive RFID data sets are expected to become commonplace. More and more space and time are needed to store and process such huge amounts of RFID data, and there is an increasing realization that the existing approaches cannot satisfy the requirements of RFID data management. In this paper, we present a split-path schema-based RFID data storage model. With a data separation mechanism, the massive RFID data produced in supply chain management systems can be stored and processed more efficiently. Then a tree structure-based path splitting approach is proposed to intelligently and automatically split the movement paths of products . Furthermore, based on the proposed new storage model, we design the relational schema to store the path information and time information of tags, and some typical query templates and SQL statements are defined. Finally, we conduct various experiments to measure the effect and performance of our model and demonstrate that it performs significantly better than the baseline approach in both the data expression and path-oriented RFID data query performance.

  4. Elastic Labour Supply and Home Production in a Monetary Growth Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei-Bin Zhang

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available This study constructs a monetary gender growth model with capital accumulation and endogenous labour supply. The real aspects of the model are based on the neoclassical growth theory and monetary aspects of the model are based on the cash-in-advance (CIA approach. We show that the dynamics of the economy can be described by 2-dimensional differential equations. We simulate equilibrium and motion of the economy with specified monetary policies, household preference and technology. As the monetary economic system is unstable, the economy may either experience unlimited growth or economic crisis. We also study effects of changes in some parameters on the economic equilibrium. For instance, as the woman raises her propensity to stay at home, the capital intensity is not affected, which results in that the wage rates, the rate and output level per unit of labour input are not affected. Nevertheless, the man increases his work time and the woman reduces her work time, resulting in the fall of the labour supply. The money holing, durable goods used at home and consumption level per household are reduced; also the total wealth, total capital inputs, total durable goods and total output levels are reduced.

  5. An order insertion scheduling model of logistics service supply chain considering capacity and time factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Weihua; Yang, Yi; Wang, Shuqing; Liu, Yang

    2014-01-01

    Order insertion often occurs in the scheduling process of logistics service supply chain (LSSC), which disturbs normal time scheduling especially in the environment of mass customization logistics service. This study analyses order similarity coefficient and order insertion operation process and then establishes an order insertion scheduling model of LSSC with service capacity and time factors considered. This model aims to minimize the average unit volume operation cost of logistics service integrator and maximize the average satisfaction degree of functional logistics service providers. In order to verify the viability and effectiveness of our model, a specific example is numerically analyzed. Some interesting conclusions are obtained. First, along with the increase of completion time delay coefficient permitted by customers, the possible inserting order volume first increases and then trends to be stable. Second, supply chain performance reaches the best when the volume of inserting order is equal to the surplus volume of the normal operation capacity in mass service process. Third, the larger the normal operation capacity in mass service process is, the bigger the possible inserting order's volume will be. Moreover, compared to increasing the completion time delay coefficient, improving the normal operation capacity of mass service process is more useful.

  6. A Comprehensive Mathematical Programming Model for Minimizing Costs in A Multiple-Item Reverse Supply Chain with Sensitivity Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahmoudi Hoda

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available These instructions give you guidelines for preparing papers for IFAC conferences. A reverse supply chain is configured by a sequence of elements forming a continuous process to treat return-products until they are properly recovered or disposed. The activities in a reverse supply chain include collection, cleaning, disassembly, test and sorting, storage, transport, and recovery operations. This paper presents a mathematical programming model with the objective of minimizing the total costs of reverse supply chain including transportation, fixed opening, operation, maintenance and remanufacturing costs of centers. The proposed model considers the design of a multi-layer, multi-product reverse supply chain that consists of returning, disassembly, processing, recycling, remanufacturing, materials and distribution centers. This integer linear programming model is solved by using Lingo 9 software and the results are reported. Finally, a sensitivity analysis of the proposed model is also presented.

  7. Designing a mathematical model for integrating dynamic cellular manufacturing into supply chain system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aalaei, Amin; Davoudpour, Hamid

    2012-11-01

    This article presents designing a new mathematical model for integrating dynamic cellular manufacturing into supply chain system with an extensive coverage of important manufacturing features consideration of multiple plants location, multi-markets allocation, multi-period planning horizons with demand and part mix variation, machine capacity, and the main constraints are demand of markets satisfaction in each period, machine availability, machine time-capacity, worker assignment, available time of worker, production volume for each plant and the amounts allocated to each market. The aim of the proposed model is to minimize holding and outsourcing costs, inter-cell material handling cost, external transportation cost, procurement & maintenance and overhead cost of machines, setup cost, reconfiguration cost of machines installation and removal, hiring, firing and salary worker costs. Aimed to prove the potential benefits of such a design, presented an example is shown using a proposed model.

  8. Using microorganisms to aid in hydrocarbon degradation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Black, W.; Zamora, J.

    1993-01-01

    Aliphatic hydrocarbons are threatening the potable water supply and the aquatic ecosystem. Given the right microbial inhabitant(s), a large portion of these aliphatic hydrocarbons could be biodegraded before reaching the water supply. The authors' purpose is to isolate possible oil-degrading organisms. Soil samples were taken from hydrocarbon-laden soils at petroleum terminals, a petroleum refinery waste-treatment facility, a sewage-treatment plant grease collector, a site of previous bioremediation, and various other places. Some isolates known to be good degraders were obtained from culture collection services. These samples were plated on a 10w-30 multigrade motor oil solid medium to screen for aliphatic hydrocarbon degraders. The degrading organisms were isolated, identified, and tested (CO 2 evolution, BOD, and COD) to determine the most efficient degrader(s). Thirty-seven organisms were tested, and the most efficient degraders were Serratia marcescens, Escherichia coli, and Enterobacter agglomerans

  9. Linking state-and-transition simulation and timber supply models for forest biomass production scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer K. Costanza

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available We linked state-and-transition simulation models (STSMs with an economics-based timber supply model to examine landscape dynamics in North Carolina through 2050 for three scenarios of forest biomass production. Forest biomass could be an important source of renewable energy in the future, but there is currently much uncertainty about how biomass production would impact landscapes. In the southeastern US, if forests become important sources of biomass for bioenergy, we expect increased land-use change and forest management. STSMs are ideal for simulating these landscape changes, but the amounts of change will depend on drivers such as timber prices and demand for forest land, which are best captured with forest economic models. We first developed state-and-transition model pathways in the ST-Sim software platform for 49 vegetation and land-use types that incorporated each expected type of landscape change. Next, for the three biomass production scenarios, the SubRegional Timber Supply Model (SRTS was used to determine the annual areas of thinning and harvest in five broad forest types, as well as annual areas converted among those forest types, agricultural, and urban lands. The SRTS output was used to define area targets for STSMs in ST-Sim under two scenarios of biomass production and one baseline, business-as-usual scenario. We show that ST-Sim output matched SRTS targets in most cases. Landscape dynamics results indicate that, compared with the baseline scenario, forest biomass production leads to more forest and, specifically, more intensively managed forest on the landscape by 2050. Thus, the STSMs, informed by forest economics models, provide important information about potential landscape effects of bioenergy production.

  10. Linking state-and-transition simulation and timber supply models for forest biomass production scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costanza, Jennifer; Abt, Robert C.; McKerrow, Alexa; Collazo, Jaime

    2015-01-01

    We linked state-and-transition simulation models (STSMs) with an economics-based timber supply model to examine landscape dynamics in North Carolina through 2050 for three scenarios of forest biomass production. Forest biomass could be an important source of renewable energy in the future, but there is currently much uncertainty about how biomass production would impact landscapes. In the southeastern US, if forests become important sources of biomass for bioenergy, we expect increased land-use change and forest management. STSMs are ideal for simulating these landscape changes, but the amounts of change will depend on drivers such as timber prices and demand for forest land, which are best captured with forest economic models. We first developed state-and-transition model pathways in the ST-Sim software platform for 49 vegetation and land-use types that incorporated each expected type of landscape change. Next, for the three biomass production scenarios, the SubRegional Timber Supply Model (SRTS) was used to determine the annual areas of thinning and harvest in five broad forest types, as well as annual areas converted among those forest types, agricultural, and urban lands. The SRTS output was used to define area targets for STSMs in ST-Sim under two scenarios of biomass production and one baseline, business-as-usual scenario. We show that ST-Sim output matched SRTS targets in most cases. Landscape dynamics results indicate that, compared with the baseline scenario, forest biomass production leads to more forest and, specifically, more intensively managed forest on the landscape by 2050. Thus, the STSMs, informed by forest economics models, provide important information about potential landscape effects of bioenergy production.

  11. Simulation Modeling of Intelligent Control Algorithms for Constructing Autonomous Power Supply Systems with Improved Energy Efficiency

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gimazov Ruslan

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper considers the issue of supplying autonomous robots by solar batteries. Low efficiency of modern solar batteries is a critical issue for the whole industry of renewable energy. The urgency of solving the problem of improved energy efficiency of solar batteries for supplying the robotic system is linked with the task of maximizing autonomous operation time. Several methods to improve the energy efficiency of solar batteries exist. The use of MPPT charge controller is one these methods. MPPT technology allows increasing the power generated by the solar battery by 15 – 30%. The most common MPPT algorithm is the perturbation and observation algorithm. This algorithm has several disadvantages, such as power fluctuation and the fixed time of the maximum power point tracking. These problems can be solved by using a sufficiently accurate predictive and adaptive algorithm. In order to improve the efficiency of solar batteries, autonomous power supply system was developed, which included an intelligent MPPT charge controller with the fuzzy logic-based perturbation and observation algorithm. To study the implementation of the fuzzy logic apparatus in the MPPT algorithm, in Matlab/Simulink environment, we developed a simulation model of the system, including solar battery, MPPT controller, accumulator and load. Results of the simulation modeling established that the use of MPPT technology had increased energy production by 23%; introduction of the fuzzy logic algorithm to MPPT controller had greatly increased the speed of the maximum power point tracking and neutralized the voltage fluctuations, which in turn reduced the power underproduction by 2%.

  12. Modeling nitrate at domestic and public-supply well depths in the Central Valley, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nolan, Bernard T.; Gronberg, JoAnn M.; Faunt, Claudia C.; Eberts, Sandra M.; Belitz, Ken

    2014-01-01

    Aquifer vulnerability models were developed to map groundwater nitrate concentration at domestic and public-supply well depths in the Central Valley, California. We compared three modeling methods for ability to predict nitrate concentration >4 mg/L: logistic regression (LR), random forest classification (RFC), and random forest regression (RFR). All three models indicated processes of nitrogen fertilizer input at the land surface, transmission through coarse-textured, well-drained soils, and transport in the aquifer to the well screen. The total percent correct predictions were similar among the three models (69–82%), but RFR had greater sensitivity (84% for shallow wells and 51% for deep wells). The results suggest that RFR can better identify areas with high nitrate concentration but that LR and RFC may better describe bulk conditions in the aquifer. A unique aspect of the modeling approach was inclusion of outputs from previous, physically based hydrologic and textural models as predictor variables, which were important to the models. Vertical water fluxes in the aquifer and percent coarse material above the well screen were ranked moderately high-to-high in the RFR models, and the average vertical water flux during the irrigation season was highly significant (p < 0.0001) in logistic regression.

  13. Development of a model for activated sludge aeration systems: linking air supply, distribution, and demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schraa, Oliver; Rieger, Leiv; Alex, Jens

    2017-02-01

    During the design of a water resource recovery facility, it is becoming industry practice to use simulation software to assist with process design. Aeration is one of the key components of the activated sludge process, and is one of the most important aspects of modelling wastewater treatment systems. However, aeration systems are typically not modelled in detail in most wastewater treatment process modelling studies. A comprehensive dynamic aeration system model has been developed that captures both air supply and demand. The model includes sub-models for blowers, pipes, fittings, and valves. An extended diffuser model predicts both oxygen transfer efficiency within an aeration basin and pressure drop across the diffusers. The aeration system model allows engineers to analyse aeration systems as a whole to determine biological air requirements, blower performance, air distribution, control valve impacts, controller design and tuning, and energy costs. This enables engineers to trouble-shoot the entire aeration system including process, equipment and controls. It also allows much more realistic design of these highly complex systems.

  14. Modeling nitrate at domestic and public-supply well depths in the Central Valley, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nolan, Bernard T.; Gronberg, JoAnn M.; Faunt, Claudia C.; Eberts, Sandra M.; Belitz, Ken

    2014-01-01

    Aquifer vulnerability models were developed to map groundwater nitrate concentration at domestic and public-supply well depths in the Central Valley, California. We compared three modeling methods for ability to predict nitrate concentration >4 mg/L: logistic regression (LR), random forest classification (RFC), and random forest regression (RFR). All three models indicated processes of nitrogen fertilizer input at the land surface, transmission through coarse-textured, well-drained soils, and transport in the aquifer to the well screen. The total percent correct predictions were similar among the three models (69–82%), but RFR had greater sensitivity (84% for shallow wells and 51% for deep wells). The results suggest that RFR can better identify areas with high nitrate concentration but that LR and RFC may better describe bulk conditions in the aquifer. A unique aspect of the modeling approach was inclusion of outputs from previous, physically based hydrologic and textural models as predictor variables, which were important to the models. Vertical water fluxes in the aquifer and percent coarse material above the well screen were ranked moderately high-to-high in the RFR models, and the average vertical water flux during the irrigation season was highly significant (p in logistic regression.

  15. Dispersion modeling of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons from combustion of biomass and fossil fuels and production of coke in Tianjin, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, Shu; Li, Xinrong; Yang, Yu; Coveney, Raymond M; Lu, Xiaoxia; Chen, Haitao; Shen, Weiran

    2006-08-01

    A USEPA, procedure, ISCLT3 (Industrial Source Complex Long-Term), was applied to model the spatial distribution of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) emitted from various sources including coal, petroleum, natural gas, and biomass into the atmosphere of Tianjin, China. Benzo[a]pyrene equivalent concentrations (BaPeq) were calculated for risk assessment. Model results were provisionally validated for concentrations and profiles based on the observed data at two monitoring stations. The dominant emission sources in the area were domestic coal combustion, coke production, and biomass burning. Mainly because of the difference in the emission heights, the contributions of various sources to the average concentrations at receptors differ from proportions emitted. The shares of domestic coal increased from approximately 43% at the sources to 56% at the receptors, while the contributions of coking industry decreased from approximately 23% at the sources to 7% at the receptors. The spatial distributions of gaseous and particulate PAHs were similar, with higher concentrations occurring within urban districts because of domestic coal combustion. With relatively smaller contributions, the other minor sources had limited influences on the overall spatial distribution. The calculated average BaPeq value in air was 2.54 +/- 2.87 ng/m3 on an annual basis. Although only 2.3% of the area in Tianjin exceeded the national standard of 10 ng/m3, 41% of the entire population lives within this area.

  16. Model-based evaluation of the use of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons molecular diagnostic ratios as a source identification tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Katsoyiannis, Athanasios; Breivik, Knut

    2014-01-01

    Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) molecular diagnostic ratios (MDRs) are unitless concentration ratios of pair-PAHs with the same molecular weight (MW); MDRs have long been used as a tool for PAHs source identification purposes. In the present paper, the efficiency of the MDR methodology is evaluated through the use of a multimedia fate model, the calculation of characteristic travel distances (CTD) and the estimation of air concentrations for individual PAHs as a function of distance from an initial point source. The results show that PAHs with the same MW are sometimes characterized by substantially different CTDs and therefore their air concentrations and hence MDRs are predicted to change as the distance from the original source increases. From the assessed pair-PAHs, the biggest CTD difference is seen for Fluoranthene (107 km) vs. Pyrene (26 km). This study provides a strong indication that MDRs are of limited use as a source identification tool. -- Highlights: • Model-based evaluation of the PAHs molecular diagnostic ratios efficiency. • Individual PAHs are characterized by different characteristic travel distances. • MDRs are proven to be a limited tool for source identification. • Use of MDRs for other environmental media is likely unfeasible. -- PAHs molecular diagnostic ratios which change greatly as a function of distance from the emitting source are improper for source identification purposes

  17. Tectonic controls on preservation of Middle Triassic Halfway reservoir facies, Peejay Field, northeastern British Columbia: a new hydrocarbon exploration model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caplan, M. L. [British Columbia Univ., Vancouver, BC (Canada). Dept. of Geological Sciences; Moslow, T. F. [Calgary Univ., AB (Canada). Dept. of Geology and Geophysics

    1997-12-01

    The Peejay Field in northeastern British Columbia was chosen as the site of a detailed study to establish the paleogeography, geological history and genesis of reservoir facies of Middle Triassic strata. A total of 132 cores and well logs from 345 wells were examined to establish the depositional model, to identify the origin of all reservoir facies and to construct an exploration model to improve the prediction of reservoir facies. Results show that the Middle Triassic Halfway Formation of northeastern British Columbia is comprised of at least four west-southwest prograding paleoshorelines. The Lithofacies Succession One quartz-arenites paleoshore faces have less porosity and permeability and are laterally discontinuous. For these reasons shoreface facies have minimal reservoir quality. The tidal inlet fill successions were found to have the greatest observed porosity, permeability and lateral continuity in the Peejay Field. The geometry and orientation of these tidal inlet fill deposits are controlled by tectonic processes. It was suggested that the success of hydrocarbon exploration in this structurally complex area of northeastern British Columbia and west-central Alberta depends on further stratigraphic and sedimentological examination of Middle Triassic strata on a regional scale to obtain a complete understanding of the geological history of the area. 39 refs., 13 refs.

  18. Fate of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons from the North Pacific to the Arctic: Field measurements and fugacity model simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ke, Hongwei; Chen, Mian; Liu, Mengyang; Chen, Meng; Duan, Mengshan; Huang, Peng; Hong, Jiajun; Lin, Yan; Cheng, Shayen; Wang, Xuran; Huang, Mengxue; Cai, Minggang

    2017-10-01

    Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) have accumulated ubiquitously inArctic environments, where re-volatilization of certain organic pollutants as a result of climate change has been observed. To investigate the fate of semivolatile organic compounds in the Arctic, dissolved PAHs in the surface seawaters from the temperate Pacific Ocean to the Arctic Ocean, as well as a water column in the Arctic Ocean, were collected during the 4th Chinese National Arctic Research Expedition in summer 2010. The total concentrations of seven dissolved PAHs in surface water ranged from 1.0 to 5.1 ng L -1 , decreasing with increasing latitude. The vertical profile of PAHs in the Arctic Ocean was generally characteristic of surface enrichment and depth depletion, which emphasized the role of vertical water stratification and particle settling processes. A level III fugacity model was developed in the Bering Sea under steady state assumption. Model results quantitatively simulated the transfer processes and fate of PAHs in the air and water compartments, and highlighted a summer air-to-sea flux of PAHs in the Bering Sea, which meant that the ocean served as a sink for PAHs, at least in summer. Acenaphthylene and acenaphthene reached equilibrium in air-water diffusive exchange, and any perturbation, such as a rise in temperature, might lead to disequilibrium and remobilize these compounds from their Arctic reservoirs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Testing the Logistics Model of Supplying Military Vehicles with Spare Parts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Spudić

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available The use of advanced transport means understands alsotheir supply by spare and consumable parts. In order to solvethe problem of the required quantities, costs of purchase andstorage of the parts, it is necessary to solve the problem of stocksmanagement. The wear of tyres for military vehicles in extremeexploitation conditions is of random character. How fast thetyres will wear on the all-ten·ain and heavy motor vehicle dependson the driver's skill and the external conditions (weather,terrain. All the conditions are of random character and in orderto determine as accurately as possible the wear of tyres it isnecessary to monitor the wear of tyres within a certain time period,and to find the approximate probability of tyre wear in thefuture period of time. When the probability of tyre wear is determined,stochastic supply management model is used to calculatethe value of the stocks which allows optimal planning ofstocks of spare parts at minimal costs. The stochastic model allowsoptimal calculation for the purchase of consumable partsof transport means whose consumption depends on the randomconditions and events.

  20. Closed-loop supply chain models with considering the environmental impact.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohajeri, Amir; Fallah, Mohammad

    2014-01-01

    Global warming and climate changes created by large scale emissions of greenhouse gases are a worldwide concern. Due to this, the issue of green supply chain management has received more attention in the last decade. In this study, a closed-loop logistic concept which serves the purposes of recycling, reuse, and recovery required in a green supply chain is applied to integrate the environmental issues into a traditional logistic system. Here, we formulate a comprehensive closed-loop model for the logistics planning considering profitability and ecological goals. In this way, we can achieve the ecological goal reducing the overall amount of CO2 emitted from journeys. Moreover, the profitability criterion can be supported in the cyclic network with the minimum costs and maximum service level. We apply three scenarios and develop problem formulations for each scenario corresponding to the specified regulations and investigate the effect of the regulation on the preferred transport mode and the emissions. To validate the models, some numerical experiments are worked out and a comparative analysis is investigated.

  1. Closed-Loop Supply Chain Models with Considering the Environmental Impact

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amir Mohajeri

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Global warming and climate changes created by large scale emissions of greenhouse gases are a worldwide concern. Due to this, the issue of green supply chain management has received more attention in the last decade. In this study, a closed-loop logistic concept which serves the purposes of recycling, reuse, and recovery required in a green supply chain is applied to integrate the environmental issues into a traditional logistic system. Here, we formulate a comprehensive closed-loop model for the logistics planning considering profitability and ecological goals. In this way, we can achieve the ecological goal reducing the overall amount of CO2 emitted from journeys. Moreover, the profitability criterion can be supported in the cyclic network with the minimum costs and maximum service level. We apply three scenarios and develop problem formulations for each scenario corresponding to the specified regulations and investigate the effect of the regulation on the preferred transport mode and the emissions. To validate the models, some numerical experiments are worked out and a comparative analysis is investigated.

  2. A SUSTAINABLE SUPPLY CHAIN MODEL OF RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN WOOD SUPPLIER AND FURNITURE INDUSTRY IN INDONESIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muh. Hisjam Adi Djoko Guritno and Shalihuddin Djalal Tandjung

    2012-06-01

    between wood suppliers and furniture industry is studied in this paper. A sustainable supply chain management (s-SCM model is proposed as an approach for solutions for the problems. The approach is chosen due to the characteristics of the problems that related to economic, social, and environmental problems. This aim of this paper is to determine how much supply teak wood must be provided by PP to satisfy furniture industry demand, how much production capacity that must be increased and how large forest area that must be planted in order to achieve environmental and social goals without sacrificing economical goals much. Goal programming (GP is chosen for solving the problems, because the goals are to maximize the total benefit,minimize the total loss and anticipate the conflicts between goals. Numerical trial based on observation in teak wooden furniture industry in Central Java was used to illustrate our findings. Using pareto efficient principle, the model can satisfy all goals that need to be achieved. Numerical results can be used by decision makers in teak wood industry to analyze the trade-off among several set of alternative solutions.

  3. A SUSTAINABLE SUPPLY CHAIN MODEL OF RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN WOOD SUPPLIER AND FURNITURE INDUSTRY IN INDONESIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muh. Hisjam Adi Djoko Guritno and Shalihuddin Djalal Tandjung

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Wooden furniture industry is an important industry sector in Indonesia, because many people’s welfare relyon this industry sector and the industry has a big social and environmental impacts. Many wooden furnitureindustries in Indonesia, especially in Central Java Province face problems related to the sustainability. The relationbetween wood suppliers and furniture industry is studied in this paper. A sustainable supply chain management (s-SCM model is proposed as an approach for solutions for the problems. The approach is chosen due to the characteristics of the problems that related to economic, social, and environmental problems. This aim of this paper is to determine how much supply teak wood must be provided by PP to satisfy furniture industry demand, how much production capacity that must be increased and how large forest area that must be planted in order to achieve environmental and social goals without sacrificing economical goals much. Goal programming (GP is chosen for solving the problems, because the goals are to maximize the total benefit,minimize the total loss and anticipate the conflicts between goals. Numerical trial based on observation in teak wooden furniture industry in Central Java was used to illustrate our findings. Using pareto efficient principle, the model can satisfy all goals that need to be achieved. Numerical results can be used by decision makers in teak wood industry to analyze the trade-off among several set of alternative solutions.

  4. The Estuaries Contribution for Supplying Nutrients (N and P) in Jepara Using Numerical Modelling Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maslukah, Lilik; Yulina Wulandari, Sri; Budi Prasetyawan, Indra

    2018-02-01

    Coastal water is dynamic area since it is influenced by both ocean and land. It has high primary productivity that determined fishing ground area. Increased supply of nutrients in coastal water is significantly influenced by seasons and the presence of the river estuaries carrying water masses from the mainland. This study focused on the rivers (Serang, Wiso, Grenjengan Mlonggo and Pasokan rivers) contributed nutrients supply spatially and temporally to Jepara water using numerical modeling. The results showed nutrients content of N (Nitrate) and P (Phosphate) from those rivers were 39.19 tons N/month and 2.26 tons P/month in June, 19.94 tons N/month and 1.96 tons P/month in August. From simulation modeling nutrient of N and P showed that the distribution pattern of N and P was larger during the neap tide than the spring tide. Furthermore, compared with the other rivers, Serang river was the highest nutrient supplier to Jepara water.

  5. System Dynamics Modeling on Integrated Supply Chain Management of Potato Agribusiness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lukman Hakim

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The objectives of this study is to design a model of integrated supply chain management of potato agribusiness in an effort to increase revenue and bargaining position of farmers in Aceh Province. The method applied to achieve these objectives was the methodology of system dynamics. Formulation of the models was conducted by using Vensim DSS Software, followed by simulation. The result of this study showed the role of five major scenarios which were important to actualize the integrated supply chain management of potato agribusiness in Aceh Province, those were: scenario 1, increasing the productive land area, resulting in the increasing of production volume; scenario 2, using the certified potato seed named “umbi G2”, generating the higher level of production; scenario 3, providing the certified potato seed based on the needs, showing that the quantity of production increased; scenario 4, shortening the payment receivables interval of farmers and cooperatives, which showing the increasing of cash amount; scenario 5, doing certification to the potato from synergistic partnerships farmers, showing the increasing of acceptance, profitability, R/C, and cash.

  6. Aggregate supply and demand modeling using GIS methods for the front range urban corridor, Colorado

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karakas, Ahmet; Turner, Keith

    2004-07-01

    The combined use of allocation modeling and geographical information system (GIS) technologies for providing quantitative assessments of aggregate supply and demand is evaluated using representative data for the Front Range Urban Corridor (FRUC) in Colorado. The FRUC extends from the Colorado-Wyoming border to south of Colorado Springs, and includes Denver and the major urban growth regions of Colorado. In this area, aggregate demand is high and is increasing in response to population growth. Neighborhood opposition to the establishment of new pits and quarries and the depletion of many deposits are limiting aggregate supplies. Many sources are already covered by urban development or eliminated from production by zoning. Transport of aggregate by rail from distant resources may be required in the future. Two allocation-modeling procedures are tested in this study. Network analysis procedures provided within the ARC/INFO software, are unsatisfactory. Further aggregate allocation modeling used a model specifically designed for this task; a modified version of an existing Colorado School of Mines allocation model allows for more realistic market analyses. This study evaluated four scenarios. The entire region was evaluated with a scenario reflecting the current market and by a second scenario in which some existing suppliers were closed down and new potential suppliers were activated. The conditions within the Denver metropolitan area were studied before and after the introduction of three possible rail-to-truck aggregate distribution centers. GIS techniques are helpful in developing the required database to describe the Front Range Urban Corridor aggregate market conditions. GIS methods allow the digital representation of the regional road network, and the development of a distance matrix relating all suppliers and purchasers.

  7. Heavy oil supply economics and supply response to low oil prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fisher, L.

    1999-01-01

    The dynamics of the heavy oil industry are examined, including prices, market demand, supply and supply costs. Price assumptions are provided for the reference case oil price (west Texas intermediate at Cushing). Supply cost methodology is explained. Capital and operating costs for various heavy oil and synthetic sources are derived from modeling results. The range of supply costs for heavy oil and bitumen from various sources, supply costs in terms of reference case market values and in terms of 1995-1996 average market values for Bow River crude, are derived. The CERI long term supply forecast model is explained. Western Canada upstream oil and gas cash flow and capital expenditures, eastern Canada exploration and expenditures by hydrocarbon type, and Canadian heavy oil and bitumen production based on reference case prices are estimated. Based on these projections the outlook for heavy oil at reference case prices for better than average quality resources is judged to be economic. Lower quality resources will require technology gains for successful commercialization. SAGD is a likely candidate in this respect. Again based on reference prices, production is forecast to decline by 100 Kb/d over the next five years. Diluent supply is considered to be adequate throughout the forecast period. As far as thermal bitumen is concerned, the growth could, in fact, exceed the projection, but if so, more upgrading will be required. 11 figs

  8. Source characterization and exposure modeling of gas-phase polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) concentrations in Southern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masri, Shahir; Li, Lianfa; Dang, Andy; Chung, Judith H.; Chen, Jiu-Chiuan; Fan, Zhi-Hua (Tina); Wu, Jun

    2018-03-01

    Airborne exposures to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are associated with adverse health outcomes. Because personal air measurements of PAHs are labor intensive and costly, spatial PAH exposure models are useful for epidemiological studies. However, few studies provide adequate spatial coverage to reflect intra-urban variability of ambient PAHs. In this study, we collected 39-40 weekly gas-phase PAH samples in southern California twice in summer and twice in winter, 2009, in order to characterize PAH source contributions and develop spatial models that can estimate gas-phase PAH concentrations at a high resolution. A spatial mixed regression model was constructed, including such variables as roadway, traffic, land-use, vegetation index, commercial cooking facilities, meteorology, and population density. Cross validation of the model resulted in an R2 of 0.66 for summer and 0.77 for winter. Results showed higher total PAH concentrations in winter. Pyrogenic sources, such as fossil fuels and diesel exhaust, were the most dominant contributors to total PAHs. PAH sources varied by season, with a higher fossil fuel and wood burning contribution in winter. Spatial autocorrelation accounted for a substantial amount of the variance in total PAH concentrations for both winter (56%) and summer (19%). In summer, other key variables explaining the variance included meteorological factors (9%), population density (15%), and roadway length (21%). In winter, the variance was also explained by traffic density (16%). In this study, source characterization confirmed the dominance of traffic and other fossil fuel sources to total measured gas-phase PAH concentrations while a spatial exposure model identified key predictors of PAH concentrations. Gas-phase PAH source characterization and exposure estimation is of high utility to epidemiologist and policy makers interested in understanding the health impacts of gas-phase PAHs and strategies to reduce emissions.

  9. Toward an Elasticity of Chip-N-Saw: Demand and Supply Models of Chip-N-Saw Stumpage in Louisiana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shaun M. Tanger

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Softwood chip-n-saw (CNS is a relatively new stumpage product in the sawtimber- and pulpwood-dominated stumpage markets in the U.S. South. Based on a quarterly data series from 2003 to 2016, this study estimates the demand and supply models of the softwood CNS stumpage market in Louisiana. The two-stage least squares (2SLS results reveal that own price elasticity of demand (PED is price elastic, and the cross-price elasticity (XEDwith sawtimber approaches unit elasticity. On the supply side, CNS is price inelastic in supply (PES, but more responsive to own price changesthan sawtimber quantity supplied. Further, severance tax increases are found to decrease the supply of CNS, indicating that suppliers are responsive to severance tax incidence. As the first empirical estimation of CNS, the findings should be of interest to those involved in the analysis of Southeastern stumpage markets.

  10. Hydrocarbon oils

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Foorwood, G F; Taplay, J G

    1916-12-12

    Hydrocarbon oils are hydrogenated, cracked, or treated for the removal of sulfur by bringing their vapors mixed with steam at temperatures between 450 and 600/sup 0/C into contact with a form of carbon that is capable of decomposing steam with the production of nascent hydrogen at those temperatures. The forms of carbon used include lamp-black, soot, charcoals derived from wood, cellulose, and lignite, and carbons obtained by carbonizing oil residues and other organic bodies at temperatures below 600/sup 0/C. The process is applied to the treatment of coal oil, shale oil, petroleum, and lignite oil. In examples, kerosene is cracked at 570/sup 0/C, cracked spirit is hydrogenated at 500/sup 0/C, and shale spirit is desulfurized at 530/sup 0/C. The products are led to a condenser and thence to a scrubber, where they are washed with creosote oil. After desulfurization, the products are washed with dilute caustic soda to remove sulfurretted hydrogen.

  11. Hydrocarbon exploration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lerche, I. (South Carolina Univ., Columbia, SC (United States). Dept. of Geological Sciences)

    1993-01-01

    This special issue of the journal examines various aspects of the on-going search for hydrocarbons, ranging from frontier basins where little data are available, to more mature areas where considerable data are available. The incentives underlying the search for oil are roughly: the social, economic and industrial needs of a nation; the incentive of a corporation to be profitable; and the personal incentives of individuals in the oil industry and governments, which range from financial wealth to power and which are as diverse as the individuals who are involved. From a geopolitical perspective, the needs, requirements, goals, strategies, and philosophies of nations, and groups of nations, also impact on the oil exploration game. Strategies that have been employed have ranged from boycott to austerity and rationing, to physical intervention, to global ''flooding'' with oil by over-production. (author)

  12. A Mixed Integer Linear Programming Model for the Design of Remanufacturing Closed–loop Supply Chain Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mbarek Elbounjimi

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Closed-loop supply chain network design is a critical issue due to its impact on both economic and environmental performances of the supply chain. In this paper, we address the problem of designing a multi-echelon, multi-product and capacitated closed-loop supply chain network. First, a mixed-integer linear programming formulation is developed to maximize the total profit. The main contribution of the proposed model is addressing two economic viability issues of closed-loop supply chain. The first issue is the collection of sufficient quantity of end-of-life products are assured by retailers against an acquisition price. The second issue is exploiting the benefits of colocation of forward facilities and reverse facilities. The presented model is solved by LINGO for some test problems. Computational results and sensitivity analysis are conducted to show the performance of the proposed model.

  13. ANFIS-based modelling for photovoltaic power supply system: A case study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mellit, Adel [Faculty of Sciences and Technology, Department of Electronics, LAMEL, Jijel University, Ouled-Aissa, P.O. Box 98, Jijel 18000 (Algeria); Kalogirou, Soteris A. [Department of Mechanical Engineering and Materials Science and Engineering, Cyprus University of Technology, P.O. Box 50329, Limassol 3603 (Cyprus)

    2011-01-15

    Due to the various seasonal, monthly and daily changes in meteorological data, it is relatively difficult to find a suitable model for Photovoltaic power supply (PVPS) system. This paper deals with the modelling and simulation of a PVPS system using an Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Scheme (ANFIS) and the proposition of a new expert configuration PVPS system. For the modelling of the PVPS system, it is required to find suitable models for its different components (ANFIS PV generator, ANFIS battery and ANFIS regulator) that could give satisfactory results under variable climatic conditions in order to test its performance and reliability. A database of measured climate data (global radiation, temperature and humidity) and electrical data (photovoltaic, battery and regulator voltage and current) of a PVPS system installed in Tahifet (south of Algeria) has been recorded for the period from 1992 to 1997. These data have been used for the modelling and simulation of the PVPS system. The results indicated that the reliability and the accuracy of the simulated system are excellent and the correlation coefficient between measured values and those estimated by the ANFIS gave a good prediction accuracy of 98%. Additionally, test results show that the ANFIS performed better than the Artificial Neural Network (ANN), which has also being tried to model the system. In addition, a new configuration of an expert PVPS system is proposed in this work. The predicted electrical data by the ANFIS model can be used for several applications in PV systems. (author)

  14. a Multi Objective Model for Optimization of a Green Supply Chain Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paksoy, Turan; Özceylan, Eren; Weber, Gerhard-Wilhelm

    2010-06-01

    This study develops a model of a closed-loop supply chain (CLSC) network which starts with the suppliers and recycles with the decomposition centers. As a traditional network design, we consider minimizing the all transportation costs and the raw material purchasing costs. To pay attention for the green impacts, different transportation choices are presented between echelons according to their CO2 emissions. The plants can purchase different raw materials in respect of their recyclable ratios. The focuses of this paper are conducting the minimizing total CO2 emissions. Also we try to encourage the customers to use recyclable materials as an environmental performance viewpoint besides minimizing total costs. A multi objective linear programming model is developed via presenting a numerical example. We close the paper with recommendations for future researches.

  15. An Inventory Controlled Supply Chain Model Based on Improved BP Neural Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei He

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Inventory control is a key factor for reducing supply chain cost and increasing customer satisfaction. However, prediction of inventory level is a challenging task for managers. As one of the widely used techniques for inventory control, standard BP neural network has such problems as low convergence rate and poor prediction accuracy. Aiming at these problems, a new fast convergent BP neural network model for predicting inventory level is developed in this paper. By adding an error offset, this paper deduces the new chain propagation rule and the new weight formula. This paper also applies the improved BP neural network model to predict the inventory level of an automotive parts company. The results show that the improved algorithm not only significantly exceeds the standard algorithm but also outperforms some other improved BP algorithms both on convergence rate and prediction accuracy.

  16. Modelling, stability and control of voltage behaviour in power supply systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hill, David J [Sydney Univ., NSW (Australia). Dept. of Electrical Engineering; Hisken, Ian A [Newcastle Univ., NSW (Australia). Dept. of Electrical and Computer Engineering

    1994-12-31

    This paper gives an overview of a line of work on mid to long term voltages stability analysis and control in power systems. The results are based on use of a novel approach to dynamic load modelling using aggregate nonlinear structures. In general, the model for the transmission network and supply end dynamics is of the hybrid differential - algebraic - discrete kind. Various stability questions are precisely formulated and analysed in terms of network and load characteristics (steady-state and transient). The results are shown to be a useful framework for deriving criteria of the where, when and how much kind for various control actions such as load Thedding and tap-blocking. (author) 47 refs., 15 figs., 1 tab.

  17. The Effect of Modeling Qualities, Tones and Gages in Ceramic Supply Chains' Master Planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isabel MUNDI

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Ceramic production processes are characterized by providing quantities of the same finished goods that differ in qualities, tones and gages. This aspect becomes a problem for ceramic supply chains (SCs that should promise and serve customer orders with homogeneous quantities of the same finished good. In this paper a mathematical programming model for the cen-tralized master planning of ceramic SC is proposed. Inputs to the master plan include demand forecasts in terms of customer order classes based on their order size and splitting percentages of a lot into homogeneous sub-lots. Then, the master plan defines the size and loading of lots to production lines and their distribution with the aim of maximizing the number of customer orders fulfilled with homogeneous quantities in the most efficient manner for the SC. Finally, the effect of modeling qualities, tones and gages in master planning is assessed.

  18. THE HYDROCARBON SPILL SCREENING MODEL (HSSM), VOLUME 2: THEORETICAL BACKGROUND AND SOURCE CODES

    Science.gov (United States)

    A screening model for subsurface release of a nonaqueous phase liquid which is less dense than water (LNAPL) is presented. The model conceptualizes the release as consisting of 1) vertical transport from near the surface to the capillary fringe, 2) radial spreading of an LNAPL l...

  19. Maternal Supply of Cas9 to Zygotes Facilitates the Efficient Generation of Site-Specific Mutant Mouse Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cebrian-Serrano, Alberto; Zha, Shijun; Hanssen, Lars; Biggs, Daniel; Preece, Christopher

    2017-01-01

    Genome manipulation in the mouse via microinjection of CRISPR/Cas9 site-specific nucleases has allowed the production time for genetically modified mouse models to be significantly reduced. Successful genome manipulation in the mouse has already been reported using Cas9 supplied by microinjection of a DNA construct, in vitro transcribed mRNA and recombinant protein. Recently the use of transgenic strains of mice overexpressing Cas9 has been shown to facilitate site-specific mutagenesis via maternal supply to zygotes and this route may provide an alternative to exogenous supply. We have investigated the feasibility of supplying Cas9 genetically in more detail and for this purpose we report the generation of a transgenic mice which overexpress Cas9 ubiquitously, via a CAG-Cas9 transgene targeted to the Gt(ROSA26)Sor locus. We show that zygotes prepared from female mice harbouring this transgene are sufficiently loaded with maternally contributed Cas9 for efficient production of embryos and mice harbouring indel, genomic deletion and knock-in alleles by microinjection of guide RNAs and templates alone. We compare the mutagenesis rates and efficacy of mutagenesis using this genetic supply with exogenous Cas9 supply by either mRNA or protein microinjection. In general, we report increased generation rates of knock-in alleles and show that the levels of mutagenesis at certain genome target sites are significantly higher and more consistent when Cas9 is supplied genetically relative to exogenous supply. PMID:28081254

  20. A new HYSYS model for underground gasification of hydrocarbons under hydrothermal conditions

    KAUST Repository

    Alshammari, Y.M.; Hellgardt, K.

    2014-01-01

    A new subsurface process model was developed using the ASPEN HYSYS simulation environment to analyse the process energy and gasification efficiency at steady-state equilibrium conditions. Injection and production wells were simulated using the HYSYS