Climate change and larval transport in the ocean: fractional effects from physical and physiological factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Kendall, Matthew S; Poti, Matt; Karnauskas, Kristopher B

2016-04-01

Changes in larval import, export, and self-seeding will affect the resilience of coral reef ecosystems. Climate change will alter the ocean currents that transport larvae and also increase sea surface temperatures (SST), hastening development, and shortening larval durations. Here, we use transport simulations to estimate future larval connectivity due to: (1) physical transport of larvae from altered circulation alone, and (2) the combined effects of altered currents plus physiological response to warming. Virtual larvae from islands throughout Micronesia were moved according to present-day and future ocean circulation models. The Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) spanning 2004-2012 represented present-day currents. For future currents, we altered HYCOM using analysis from the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model, version 1-Biogeochemistry, Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 experiment. Based on the NCAR model, regional SST is estimated to rise 2.74 °C which corresponds to a ~17% decline in larval duration for some taxa. This reduction was the basis for a separate set of simulations. Results predict an increase in self-seeding in 100 years such that 62-76% of islands experienced increased self-seeding, there was an average domainwide increase of ~1-3% points in self-seeding, and increases of up to 25% points for several individual islands. When changed currents alone were considered, approximately half (i.e., random) of all island pairs experienced decreased connectivity but when reduced PLD was added as an effect, ~65% of connections were weakened. Orientation of archipelagos relative to currents determined the directional bias in connectivity changes. There was no universal relationship between climate change and connectivity applicable to all taxa and settings. Islands that presently export large numbers of larvae but that also maintain or enhance this role into the future should be the focus of conservation

Ocean Data Assimilation in the Gulf of Mexico Using 3D VAR Approach - Preliminary Results

Science.gov (United States)

Paturi, S.; Garraffo, Z. D.; Cummings, J. A.; Rivin, I.; Mehra, A.; Kim, H. C.

2016-12-01

Approaches to ocean data assimilation vary widely, both in terms of the sophistication of the method and the observations assimilated.A three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) data assimilation system, part of the Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (NCODA) system developed at Navy Research Laboratory (NRL), is used for assimilating Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and Sea Surface Height (SSH) in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM). The NCODA 3DVAR produces simultaneous analyses of temperature, salinity, and vector velocity and uses all possible sources of ocean data observations.The Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) is used for the simulations, at 1/25o grid resolution for July 2011 period. After successful implementation of NCODA 3DVAR in the GoM, the system will be extended to the global ocean with the intent of making it operational.

The Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS)

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Hodur, Richard M; Hong, Xiaodong; Doyle, James D; Pullen, Julie; Cummings, James; Martin, Paul; Rennick, Mary Alice

2002-01-01

... of the Couple Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS). The goal of this modeling project is to gain predictive skill in simulating the ocean and atmosphere at high resolution on time-scales of hours to several days...

The Earth System Prediction Suite: Toward a Coordinated U.S. Modeling Capability

Science.gov (United States)

Theurich, Gerhard; DeLuca, C.; Campbell, T.; Liu, F.; Saint, K.; Vertenstein, M.; Chen, J.; Oehmke, R.; Doyle, J.; Whitcomb, T.;

The Coastal Ocean Prediction Systems program: Understanding and managing our coastal ocean

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1990-01-01

The proposed COPS (Coastal Ocean Prediction Systems) program is concerned with combining numerical models with observations (through data assimilation) to improve our predictive knowledge of the coastal ocean. It is oriented toward applied research and development and depends upon the continued pursuit of basic research in programs like COOP (Coastal Ocean Processes); i.e., to a significant degree it is involved with ''technology transfer'' from basic knowledge to operational and management applications. This predictive knowledge is intended to address a variety of societal problems: (1) ship routing, (2) trajectories for search and rescue operations, (3) oil spill trajectory simulations, (4) pollution assessments, (5) fisheries management guidance, (6) simulation of the coastal ocean's response to climate variability, (7) calculation of sediment transport, (8) calculation of forces on structures, and so forth. The initial concern is with physical models and observations in order to provide a capability for the estimation of physical forces and transports in the coastal ocean. For all these applications, there are common needs for physical field estimates: waves, tides, currents, temperature, and salinity, including mixed layers, thermoclines, fronts, jets, etc. However, the intent is to work with biologists, chemists, and geologists in developing integrated multidisciplinary prediction systems as it becomes feasible to do so. From another perspective, by combining observations with models through data assimilation, a modern approach to monitoring is provided through whole-field estimation

OceanNOMADS: Real-time and retrospective access to operational U.S. ocean prediction products

Science.gov (United States)

Harding, J. M.; Cross, S. L.; Bub, F.; Ji, M.

2011-12-01

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Operational Model Archive and Distribution System (NOMADS) provides both real-time and archived atmospheric model output from servers at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) respectively (http://nomads.ncep.noaa.gov/txt_descriptions/marRutledge-1.pdf). The NOAA National Ocean Data Center (NODC) with NCEP is developing a complementary capability called OceanNOMADS for operational ocean prediction models. An NCEP ftp server currently provides real-time ocean forecast output (http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/newNCOM/NCOM_currents.shtml) with retrospective access through NODC. A joint effort between the Northern Gulf Institute (NGI; a NOAA Cooperative Institute) and the NOAA National Coastal Data Development Center (NCDDC; a division of NODC) created the developmental version of the retrospective OceanNOMADS capability (http://www.northerngulfinstitute.org/edac/ocean_nomads.php) under the NGI Ecosystem Data Assembly Center (EDAC) project (http://www.northerngulfinstitute.org/edac/). Complementary funding support for the developmental OceanNOMADS from U.S. Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS) through the Southeastern University Research Association (SURA) Model Testbed (http://testbed.sura.org/) this past year provided NODC the analogue that facilitated the creation of an NCDDC production version of OceanNOMADS (http://www.ncddc.noaa.gov/ocean-nomads/). Access tool development and storage of initial archival data sets occur on the NGI/NCDDC developmental servers with transition to NODC/NCCDC production servers as the model archives mature and operational space and distribution capability grow. Navy operational global ocean forecast subsets for U.S waters comprise the initial ocean prediction fields resident on the NCDDC production server. The NGI/NCDDC developmental server currently includes the Naval Research Laboratory Inter-America Seas

Sea surface temperature predictions using a multi-ocean analysis ensemble scheme

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Ying; Zhu, Jieshun; Li, Zhongxian; Chen, Haishan; Zeng, Gang

2017-08-01

This study examined the global sea surface temperature (SST) predictions by a so-called multiple-ocean analysis ensemble (MAE) initialization method which was applied in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2). Different from most operational climate prediction practices which are initialized by a specific ocean analysis system, the MAE method is based on multiple ocean analyses. In the paper, the MAE method was first justified by analyzing the ocean temperature variability in four ocean analyses which all are/were applied for operational climate predictions either at the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts or at NCEP. It was found that these systems exhibit substantial uncertainties in estimating the ocean states, especially at the deep layers. Further, a set of MAE hindcasts was conducted based on the four ocean analyses with CFSv2, starting from each April during 1982-2007. The MAE hindcasts were verified against a subset of hindcasts from the NCEP CFS Reanalysis and Reforecast (CFSRR) Project. Comparisons suggested that MAE shows better SST predictions than CFSRR over most regions where ocean dynamics plays a vital role in SST evolutions, such as the El Niño and Atlantic Niño regions. Furthermore, significant improvements were also found in summer precipitation predictions over the equatorial eastern Pacific and Atlantic oceans, for which the local SST prediction improvements should be responsible. The prediction improvements by MAE imply a problem for most current climate predictions which are based on a specific ocean analysis system. That is, their predictions would drift towards states biased by errors inherent in their ocean initialization system, and thus have large prediction errors. In contrast, MAE arguably has an advantage by sampling such structural uncertainties, and could efficiently cancel these errors out in their predictions.

The Potential and Challenges of Using Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP Sea Surface Salinity to Monitor Arctic Ocean Freshwater Changes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wenqing Tang

2018-06-01

Full Text Available Sea surface salinity (SSS links various components of the Arctic freshwater system. SSS responds to freshwater inputs from river discharge, sea ice change, precipitation and evaporation, and oceanic transport through the open straits of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. However, in situ SSS data in the Arctic Ocean are very sparse and insufficient to depict the large-scale variability to address the critical question of how climate variability and change affect the Arctic Ocean freshwater. The L-band microwave radiometer on board the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP mission has been providing SSS measurements since April 2015, at approximately 60 km resolution with Arctic Ocean coverage in 1–2 days. With improved land/ice correction, the SMAP SSS algorithm that was developed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL is able to retrieve SSS in ice-free regions 35 km of the coast. SMAP observes a large-scale contrast in salinity between the Atlantic and Pacific sides of the Arctic Ocean, while retrievals within the Arctic Circle vary over time, depending on the sea ice coverage and river runoff. We assess the accuracy of SMAP SSS through comparative analysis with in situ salinity data collected by Argo floats, ships, gliders, and in field campaigns. Results derived from nearly 20,000 pairs of SMAP and in situ data North of 50°N collocated within a 12.5-km radius and daily time window indicate a Root Mean Square Difference (RMSD less than ~1 psu with a correlation coefficient of 0.82 and a near unity regression slope over the entire range of salinity. In contrast, the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM has a smaller RMSD with Argo. However, there are clear systematic biases in the HYCOM for salinity in the range of 25–30 psu, leading to a regression slope of about 0.5. In the region North of 65°N, the number of collocated samples drops more than 70%, resulting in an RMSD of about 1.2 psu. SMAP SSS in the Kara Sea shows a consistent

The Coastal Ocean Prediction Systems program: Understanding and managing our coastal ocean

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1990-01-01

This document is a compilation of summaries of papers presented at the Coastal Ocean Prediction Systems workshop. Topics include; marine forecasting, regulatory agencies and regulations, research and application models, research and operational observing, oceanic and atmospheric data assimilation, and coastal physical processes

Decadal climate predictions improved by ocean ensemble dispersion filtering

Science.gov (United States)

Kadow, C.; Illing, S.; Kröner, I.; Ulbrich, U.; Cubasch, U.

2017-06-01

Decadal predictions by Earth system models aim to capture the state and phase of the climate several years in advance. Atmosphere-ocean interaction plays an important role for such climate forecasts. While short-term weather forecasts represent an initial value problem and long-term climate projections represent a boundary condition problem, the decadal climate prediction falls in-between these two time scales. In recent years, more precise initialization techniques of coupled Earth system models and increased ensemble sizes have improved decadal predictions. However, climate models in general start losing the initialized signal and its predictive skill from one forecast year to the next. Here we show that the climate prediction skill of an Earth system model can be improved by a shift of the ocean state toward the ensemble mean of its individual members at seasonal intervals. We found that this procedure, called ensemble dispersion filter, results in more accurate results than the standard decadal prediction. Global mean and regional temperature, precipitation, and winter cyclone predictions show an increased skill up to 5 years ahead. Furthermore, the novel technique outperforms predictions with larger ensembles and higher resolution. Our results demonstrate how decadal climate predictions benefit from ocean ensemble dispersion filtering toward the ensemble mean.Plain Language SummaryDecadal predictions aim to predict the climate several years in advance. Atmosphere-ocean interaction plays an important role for such climate forecasts. The ocean memory due to its heat capacity holds big potential skill. In recent years, more precise initialization techniques of coupled Earth system models (incl. atmosphere and ocean) have improved decadal predictions. Ensembles are another important aspect. Applying slightly perturbed predictions to trigger the famous butterfly effect results in an ensemble. Instead of evaluating one prediction, but the whole ensemble with its

Moving Towards Dynamic Ocean Management: How Well Do Modeled Ocean Products Predict Species Distributions?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elizabeth A. Becker

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Species distribution models are now widely used in conservation and management to predict suitable habitat for protected marine species. The primary sources of dynamic habitat data have been in situ and remotely sensed oceanic variables (both are considered “measured data”, but now ocean models can provide historical estimates and forecast predictions of relevant habitat variables such as temperature, salinity, and mixed layer depth. To assess the performance of modeled ocean data in species distribution models, we present a case study for cetaceans that compares models based on output from a data assimilative implementation of the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS to those based on measured data. Specifically, we used seven years of cetacean line-transect survey data collected between 1991 and 2009 to develop predictive habitat-based models of cetacean density for 11 species in the California Current Ecosystem. Two different generalized additive models were compared: one built with a full suite of ROMS output and another built with a full suite of measured data. Model performance was assessed using the percentage of explained deviance, root mean squared error (RMSE, observed to predicted density ratios, and visual inspection of predicted and observed distributions. Predicted distribution patterns were similar for models using ROMS output and measured data, and showed good concordance between observed sightings and model predictions. Quantitative measures of predictive ability were also similar between model types, and RMSE values were almost identical. The overall demonstrated success of the ROMS-based models opens new opportunities for dynamic species management and biodiversity monitoring because ROMS output is available in near real time and can be forecast.

The Coastal Ocean Prediction Systems program: Understanding and managing our coastal ocean. Volume 1: Strategic summary

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1990-05-15

The proposed COPS (Coastal Ocean Prediction Systems) program is concerned with combining numerical models with observations (through data assimilation) to improve our predictive knowledge of the coastal ocean. It is oriented toward applied research and development and depends upon the continued pursuit of basic research in programs like COOP (Coastal Ocean Processes); i.e., to a significant degree it is involved with ``technology transfer`` from basic knowledge to operational and management applications. This predictive knowledge is intended to address a variety of societal problems: (1) ship routing, (2) trajectories for search and rescue operations, (3) oil spill trajectory simulations, (4) pollution assessments, (5) fisheries management guidance, (6) simulation of the coastal ocean`s response to climate variability, (7) calculation of sediment transport, (8) calculation of forces on structures, and so forth. The initial concern is with physical models and observations in order to provide a capability for the estimation of physical forces and transports in the coastal ocean. For all these applications, there are common needs for physical field estimates: waves, tides, currents, temperature, and salinity, including mixed layers, thermoclines, fronts, jets, etc. However, the intent is to work with biologists, chemists, and geologists in developing integrated multidisciplinary prediction systems as it becomes feasible to do so. From another perspective, by combining observations with models through data assimilation, a modern approach to monitoring is provided through whole-field estimation.

Advancing coastal ocean modelling, analysis, and prediction for the US Integrated Ocean Observing System

Science.gov (United States)

Wilkin, John L.; Rosenfeld, Leslie; Allen, Arthur; Baltes, Rebecca; Baptista, Antonio; He, Ruoying; Hogan, Patrick; Kurapov, Alexander; Mehra, Avichal; Quintrell, Josie; Schwab, David; Signell, Richard; Smith, Jane

2017-01-01

This paper outlines strategies that would advance coastal ocean modelling, analysis and prediction as a complement to the observing and data management activities of the coastal components of the US Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS®) and the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS). The views presented are the consensus of a group of US-based researchers with a cross-section of coastal oceanography and ocean modelling expertise and community representation drawn from Regional and US Federal partners in IOOS. Priorities for research and development are suggested that would enhance the value of IOOS observations through model-based synthesis, deliver better model-based information products, and assist the design, evaluation, and operation of the observing system itself. The proposed priorities are: model coupling, data assimilation, nearshore processes, cyberinfrastructure and model skill assessment, modelling for observing system design, evaluation and operation, ensemble prediction, and fast predictors. Approaches are suggested to accomplish substantial progress in a 3–8-year timeframe. In addition, the group proposes steps to promote collaboration between research and operations groups in Regional Associations, US Federal Agencies, and the international ocean research community in general that would foster coordination on scientific and technical issues, and strengthen federal–academic partnerships benefiting IOOS stakeholders and end users.

Accelerated Prediction of the Polar Ice and Global Ocean (APPIGO)

Science.gov (United States)

2014-09-30

APPIGO) Eric Chassignet Center for Ocean-Atmosphere Prediction Studies (COAPS) Florida State University PO Box 3062840 Tallahassee, FL 32306...PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) Florida Atlantic University,Center for Ocean-Atmosphere Prediction Studies (COAPS),PO Box 3062840...Cavalieri, D. J., C. I. Parkinson , P. Gloersen, and H. J. Zwally. 1997. Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice Concentrations from Multichannel Passive-Microwave

Stochastic Ocean Predictions with Dynamically-Orthogonal Primitive Equations

Science.gov (United States)

Subramani, D. N.; Haley, P., Jr.; Lermusiaux, P. F. J.

2017-12-01

The coastal ocean is a prime example of multiscale nonlinear fluid dynamics. Ocean fields in such regions are complex and intermittent with unstationary heterogeneous statistics. Due to the limited measurements, there are multiple sources of uncertainties, including the initial conditions, boundary conditions, forcing, parameters, and even the model parameterizations and equations themselves. For efficient and rigorous quantification and prediction of these uncertainities, the stochastic Dynamically Orthogonal (DO) PDEs for a primitive equation ocean modeling system with a nonlinear free-surface are derived and numerical schemes for their space-time integration are obtained. Detailed numerical studies with idealized-to-realistic regional ocean dynamics are completed. These include consistency checks for the numerical schemes and comparisons with ensemble realizations. As an illustrative example, we simulate the 4-d multiscale uncertainty in the Middle Atlantic/New York Bight region during the months of Jan to Mar 2017. To provide intitial conditions for the uncertainty subspace, uncertainties in the region were objectively analyzed using historical data. The DO primitive equations were subsequently integrated in space and time. The probability distribution function (pdf) of the ocean fields is compared to in-situ, remote sensing, and opportunity data collected during the coincident POSYDON experiment. Results show that our probabilistic predictions had skill and are 3- to 4- orders of magnitude faster than classic ensemble schemes.

The effect of ocean tides on the earth's rotation as predicted by the results of an ocean tide model

Science.gov (United States)

Gross, Richard S.

1993-01-01

The published ocean tidal angular momentum results of Seiler (1991) are used to predict the effects of the most important semidiurnal, diurnal, and long period ocean tides on the earth's rotation. The separate, as well as combined, effects of ocean tidal currents and sea level height changes on the length-of-day, UT1, and polar motion are computed. The predicted polar motion results reported here account for the presence of the free core nutation and are given in terms of the motion of the celestial ephemeris pole so that they can be compared directly to the results of observations. Outside the retrograde diurnal tidal band, the summed effect of the semidiurnal and diurnal ocean tides studied here predict peak-to-peak polar motion amplitudes as large as 2 mas. Within the retrograde diurnal tidal band, the resonant enhancement caused by the free core nutation leads to predicted polar motion amplitudes as large as 9 mas.

Predicting plankton net community production in the Atlantic Ocean

Science.gov (United States)

Serret, Pablo; Robinson, Carol; Fernández, Emilio; Teira, Eva; Tilstone, Gavin; Pérez, Valesca

2009-07-01

We present, test and implement two contrasting models to predict euphotic zone net community production (NCP), which are based on 14C primary production (PO 14CP) to NCP relationships over two latitudinal (ca. 30°S-45°N) transects traversing highly productive and oligotrophic provinces of the Atlantic Ocean (NADR, CNRY, BENG, NAST-E, ETRA and SATL, Longhurst et al., 1995 [An estimation of global primary production in the ocean from satellite radiometer data. Journal of Plankton Research 17, 1245-1271]). The two models include similar ranges of PO 14CP and community structure, but differ in the relative influence of allochthonous organic matter in the oligotrophic provinces. Both models were used to predict NCP from PO 14CP measurements obtained during 11 local and three seasonal studies in the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian Oceans, and from satellite-derived estimates of PO 14CP. Comparison of these NCP predictions with concurrent in situ measurements and geochemical estimates of NCP showed that geographic and annual patterns of NCP can only be predicted when the relative trophic importance of local vs. distant processes is similar in both modeled and predicted ecosystems. The system-dependent ability of our models to predict NCP seasonality suggests that trophic-level dynamics are stronger than differences in hydrodynamic regime, taxonomic composition and phytoplankton growth. The regional differences in the predictive power of both models confirm the existence of biogeographic differences in the scale of trophic dynamics, which impede the use of a single generalized equation to estimate global marine plankton NCP. This paper shows the potential of a systematic empirical approach to predict plankton NCP from local and satellite-derived P estimates.

Downscaling Ocean Conditions: Initial Results using a Quasigeostrophic and Realistic Ocean Model

Science.gov (United States)

Katavouta, Anna; Thompson, Keith

2014-05-01

Previous theoretical work (Henshaw et al, 2003) has shown that the small-scale modes of variability of solutions of the unforced, incompressible Navier-Stokes equation, and Burgers' equation, can be reconstructed with surprisingly high accuracy from the time history of a few of the large-scale modes. Motivated by this theoretical work we first describe a straightforward method for assimilating information on the large scales in order to recover the small scale oceanic variability. The method is based on nudging in specific wavebands and frequencies and is similar to the so-called spectral nudging method that has been used successfully for atmospheric downscaling with limited area models (e.g. von Storch et al., 2000). The validity of the method is tested using a quasigestrophic model configured to simulate a double ocean gyre separated by an unstable mid-ocean jet. It is shown that important features of the ocean circulation including the position of the meandering mid-ocean jet and associated pinch-off eddies can indeed be recovered from the time history of a small number of large-scales modes. The benefit of assimilating additional time series of observations from a limited number of locations, that alone are too sparse to significantly improve the recovery of the small scales using traditional assimilation techniques, is also demonstrated using several twin experiments. The final part of the study outlines the application of the approach using a realistic high resolution (1/36 degree) model, based on the NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) modeling framework, configured for the Scotian Shelf of the east coast of Canada. The large scale conditions used in this application are obtained from the HYCOM (HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model) + NCODA (Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation) global 1/12 degree analysis product. Henshaw, W., Kreiss, H.-O., Ystrom, J., 2003. Numerical experiments on the interaction between the larger- and the small-scale motion of

Ocean-Atmosphere Coupling Processes Affecting Predictability in the Climate System

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, A. J.; Subramanian, A. C.; Seo, H.; Eliashiv, J. D.

2017-12-01

Predictions of the ocean and atmosphere are often sensitive to coupling at the air-sea interface in ways that depend on the temporal and spatial scales of the target fields. We will discuss several aspects of these types of coupled interactions including oceanic and atmospheric forecast applications. For oceanic mesoscale eddies, the coupling can influence the energetics of the oceanic flow itself. For Madden-Julian Oscillation onset, the coupling timestep should resolve the diurnal cycle to properly raise time-mean SST and latent heat flux prior to deep convection. For Atmospheric River events, the evolving SST field can alter the trajectory and intensity of precipitation anomalies along the California coast. Improvements in predictions will also rely on identifying and alleviating sources of biases in the climate states of the coupled system. Surprisingly, forecast skill can also be improved by enhancing stochastic variability in the atmospheric component of coupled models as found in a multiscale ensemble modeling approach.

Altimetric observations and model simulations of coastal Kelvin waves in the Bay of Bengal

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Nienhaus, M.J.; Subrahmanyam, B; Murty, V.S.N.

Wavelet analyses of sea surface height (SSH) obtained from Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) reanalysis, satellite altimetry derived SSH anomalies during 1993–2006, and HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) simulations of SSH during 2003...

The Impact of Ocean Observations in Seasonal Climate Prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Rienecker, Michele; Keppenne, Christian; Kovach, Robin; Marshak, Jelena

2010-01-01

The ocean provides the most significant memory for the climate system. Hence, a critical element in climate forecasting with coupled models is the initialization of the ocean with states from an ocean data assimilation system. Remotely-sensed ocean surface fields (e.g., sea surface topography, SST, winds) are now available for extensive periods and have been used to constrain ocean models to provide a record of climate variations. Since the ocean is virtually opaque to electromagnetic radiation, the assimilation of these satellite data is essential to extracting the maximum information content. More recently, the Argo drifters have provided unprecedented sampling of the subsurface temperature and salinity. Although the duration of this observation set has been too short to provide solid statistical evidence of its impact, there are indications that Argo improves the forecast skill of coupled systems. This presentation will address the impact these different observations have had on seasonal climate predictions with the GMAO's coupled model.

Can decadal climate predictions be improved by ocean ensemble dispersion filtering?

Science.gov (United States)

Kadow, C.; Illing, S.; Kröner, I.; Ulbrich, U.; Cubasch, U.

2017-12-01

Decadal predictions by Earth system models aim to capture the state and phase of the climate several years inadvance. Atmosphere-ocean interaction plays an important role for such climate forecasts. While short-termweather forecasts represent an initial value problem and long-term climate projections represent a boundarycondition problem, the decadal climate prediction falls in-between these two time scales. The ocean memorydue to its heat capacity holds big potential skill on the decadal scale. In recent years, more precise initializationtechniques of coupled Earth system models (incl. atmosphere and ocean) have improved decadal predictions.Ensembles are another important aspect. Applying slightly perturbed predictions results in an ensemble. Insteadof using and evaluating one prediction, but the whole ensemble or its ensemble average, improves a predictionsystem. However, climate models in general start losing the initialized signal and its predictive skill from oneforecast year to the next. Here we show that the climate prediction skill of an Earth system model can be improvedby a shift of the ocean state toward the ensemble mean of its individual members at seasonal intervals. Wefound that this procedure, called ensemble dispersion filter, results in more accurate results than the standarddecadal prediction. Global mean and regional temperature, precipitation, and winter cyclone predictions showan increased skill up to 5 years ahead. Furthermore, the novel technique outperforms predictions with largerensembles and higher resolution. Our results demonstrate how decadal climate predictions benefit from oceanensemble dispersion filtering toward the ensemble mean. This study is part of MiKlip (fona-miklip.de) - a major project on decadal climate prediction in Germany.We focus on the Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model using the low-resolution version (MPI-ESM-LR) andMiKlip's basic initialization strategy as in 2017 published decadal climate forecast: http

The Coastal Ocean Prediction Systems program: Understanding and managing our coastal ocean. Volume 2: Overview and invited papers

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1990-05-15

This document is a compilation of summaries of papers presented at the Coastal Ocean Prediction Systems workshop. Topics include; marine forecasting, regulatory agencies and regulations, research and application models, research and operational observing, oceanic and atmospheric data assimilation, and coastal physical processes.

A Real-Time Coastal Ocean Prediction Experiment for MREA04

Science.gov (United States)

2008-01-01

coastal ocean prediction experiment for MREA04 Dong S. Ko *, Paul J. Martin, Clark D. Rowley, Ruth H. Preller Naval Research Laborator ,: S ’ntis Space...Jourml of Marine Svstem 69 t200S) 17 28 and various data streams for ocean bathymetry, clima - global ONFS or from a higher resolution regional ONFS

Developing an Automated Method for Detection of Operationally Relevant Ocean Fronts and Eddies

Science.gov (United States)

Rogers-Cotrone, J. D.; Cadden, D. D. H.; Rivera, P.; Wynn, L. L.

2016-02-01

Since the early 90's, the U.S. Navy has utilized an observation-based process for identification of frontal systems and eddies. These Ocean Feature Assessments (OFA) rely on trained analysts to identify and position ocean features using satellite-observed sea surface temperatures. Meanwhile, as enhancements and expansion of the navy's Hybrid Coastal Ocean Model (HYCOM) and Regional Navy Coastal Ocean Model (RNCOM) domains have proceeded, the Naval Oceanographic Office (NAVO) has provided Tactical Oceanographic Feature Assessments (TOFA) that are based on data-validated model output but also rely on analyst identification of significant features. A recently completed project has migrated OFA production to the ArcGIS-based Acoustic Reach-back Cell Ocean Analysis Suite (ARCOAS), enabling use of additional observational datasets and significantly decreasing production time; however, it has highlighted inconsistencies inherent to this analyst-based identification process. Current efforts are focused on development of an automated method for detecting operationally significant fronts and eddies that integrates model output and observational data on a global scale. Previous attempts to employ techniques from the scientific community have been unable to meet the production tempo at NAVO. Thus, a system that incorporates existing techniques (Marr-Hildreth, Okubo-Weiss, etc.) with internally-developed feature identification methods (from model-derived physical and acoustic properties) is required. Ongoing expansions to the ARCOAS toolset have shown promising early results.

Analysis of the Effects of SST and Model Resolutions on the Identification of the 1993 Superstorm Using an Ocean-Atmosphere Coupled Regional System

Science.gov (United States)

Aktas, D.; Velissariou, P.; Chassignet, E.; Bourassa, M. A.

2014-12-01

The non-tropical storm, the 12-14 March 1993 Superstorm, which called the Storm of the Century had a wide reaching effect on the Northern Gulf of Mexico region and the East Coast of the United States. Previous studies show that the initial development of the storm could not be simulated accurately enough to represent the intensity and the evolution of the storm over the Gulf of Mexico region. The aim of this study is to identify the effects of the air-sea fluxes, the sea surface temperature (SST) and the model resolution on determining the intensity and the track of the storm more accurately. To this end, the outputs from two-way coupled model runs were examined to analyze the storm characteristics. Model configurations have been set within a coupled system framework that includes the atmospheric model Weather Research & Forecasting Model (WRF) and the ocean model Regional Ocean Model (ROMS). Three WRF domains assigned 15 km, 5 km and ~1.6 km resolutions, respectively and an 8 km resolution ROMS domain were used in the coupled system. The initial and boundary conditions for WRF were extracted from the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) products and the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) generated SSTs while, the conditions for ROMS were extracted from HYCOM. Comparisons were performed against NOAA buoys and GridSAT brightness temperatures. Minimum mean sea level pressure (MSLP), maximum wind speed and storm locations were examined. Time series for MSLP and wind speed were used to illustrate how air-sea interaction and resolution changes storm intensity along the track. The results showing the RMS differences on the storm location and intensity of the storm are also presented.

Nature Run for the North Atlantic Ocean Hurricane Region: System Evaluation and Regional Applications

Science.gov (United States)

Kourafalou, V.; Androulidakis, I.; Halliwell, G. R., Jr.; Kang, H.; Mehari, M. F.; Atlas, R. M.

2016-02-01

A prototype ocean Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE) system, first developed and data validated in the Gulf of Mexico, has been applied on the extended North Atlantic Ocean hurricane region. The main objectives of this study are: a) to contribute toward a fully relocatable ocean OSSE system by expanding the Gulf of Mexico OSSE to the North Atlantic Ocean; b) demonstrate and quantify improvements in hurricane forecasting when the ocean component of coupled hurricane models is advanced through targeted observations and assimilation. The system is based on the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) and has been applied on a 1/250 Mercator mesh for the free-running Nature Run (NR) and on a 1/120 Mercator mesh for the data assimilative forecast model (FM). A "fraternal twin" system is employed, using two different realizations for NR and FM, each configured to produce substantially different physics and truncation errors. The NR has been evaluated using a variety of available observations, such as from AVISO, GDEM climatology and GHRSST observations, plus specific regional products (upper ocean profiles from air-borne instruments, surface velocity maps derived from the historical drifter data set and tropical cyclone heat potential maps derived from altimetry observations). The utility of the OSSE system to advance the knowledge of regional air-sea interaction processes related to hurricane activity is demonstrated in the Amazon region (salinity induced surface barrier layer) and the Gulf Stream region (hurricane impact on the Gulf Stream extension).

Testing Predictions of Continental Insulation using Oceanic Crustal Thicknesses

Science.gov (United States)

Hoggard, Mark; Shorttle, Oliver; White, Nicky

2016-04-01

The thermal blanketing effect of continental crust has been predicted to lead to elevated temperatures within the upper mantle beneath supercontinents. Initial break-up is associated with increased magmatism and the generation of flood basalts. Continued rifting and sea-floor spreading lead to a steady reduction of this thermal anomaly. Recently, evidence in support of this behaviour has come from the major element geochemistry of mid-ocean ridge basalts, which suggest excess rifting temperatures of ˜ 150 °C that decay over ˜ 100 Ma. We have collated a global inventory of ˜ 1000 seismic reflection profiles and ˜ 500 wide-angle refraction experiments from the oceanic realm. Data are predominantly located along passive margins, but there are also multiple surveys in the centres of the major oceanic basins. Oceanic crustal thickness has been mapped, taking care to avoid areas of secondary magmatic thickening near seamounts or later thinning such as across transform faults. These crustal thicknesses are a proxy for mantle potential temperature at the time of melt formation beneath a mid-ocean ridge system, allowing us to quantify the amplitude and duration of thermal anomalies generated beneath supercontinents. The Jurassic break-up of the Central Atlantic and the Cretaceous rifting that formed the South Atlantic Ocean are both associated with excess temperatures of ˜ 50 °C that have e-folding times of ˜ 50 Ma. In addition to this background trend, excess temperatures reach > 150 °C around the region of the Rio Grande Rise, associated with the present-day Tristan hotspot. The e-folding time of this more local event is ˜ 10 Ma, which mirrors results obtained for the North Atlantic Ocean south of Iceland. In contrast, crustal thicknesses from the Pacific Ocean reveal approximately constant potential temperature through time. This observation is in agreement with predictions, as the western Pacific was formed by rifting of an oceanic plate. In summary

Nudging atmosphere and ocean reanalyses for seasonal climate predictions

Science.gov (United States)

Piontek, Robert; Baehr, Johanna; Kornblueh, Luis; Müller, Wolfgang Alexander; Haak, Helmuth; Botzet, Michael; Matei, Daniela

2010-05-01

Seasonal climate forecasts based on state-of-the-art climate models have been developed recently. Here, we critically discuss the obstacles encountered in the setup of the ECHAM6/MPIOM global coupled climate model to perform climate predictions on seasonal to decadal time scales. We particularly focus on the initialization procedure, especially on the implementation of the nudging scheme, in which different reanalysis products are used in the atmosphere (e.g.ERA40), and the ocean (e.g., GECCO). Nudging in the atmosphere appears to be sensitive to the following choices: limiting the spectral range of nudging, whether or not temperature is nudged, the strength of the nudging coefficient for surface pressure, and the height at which the planetary boundary layer is excluded from nudging. We find that including nudging in both the atmosphere and the ocean gives improved results over nudging only the ocean or the atmosphere. For the implementation of the nudging in the atmosphere, we find the most significant improvements in the solution when either the planetary boundary layer is excluded, or if nudging of temperature is omitted. There are significant improvements in the solution when resolution is increased in both the atmosphere and in the ocean. Our tests form the basis for the prediction system introduced in the abstract of Müller et al., where hindcasts are analysed as well.

Ocean wave prediction using numerical and neural network models

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Mandal, S.; Prabaharan, N.

This paper presents an overview of the development of the numerical wave prediction models and recently used neural networks for ocean wave hindcasting and forecasting. The numerical wave models express the physical concepts of the phenomena...

Revised predictions of long-period ocean tidal effects on Earth's rotation rate

Science.gov (United States)

Dickman, S. R.; Nam, Young S.

1995-01-01

The rotational response of Earth to long-period tidal forces, embodied in a 'zonal response function,' can be expected to vary with frequency because of variable contributions by the oceans, mantle, and core. The zonal response function has been estimated from 9 years of International Radio Interferometric Surveying (IRIS) universal time (UT1) data and compared with theoretical predictions, using a spherical harmonic tide model to compute the oceans' dynamic response, at semiannual, monthly, fortnightly, and 9-day lunisolar tidal frequencies. Different amounts of mantle anelasticity have been considered for both the oceanic and soild earth responses; predictions have been made assuming axial core-mantle coupling which is either complete or absent. Additionally, an extensive recalibration of the ocean model's frictional parameters was performed using constraints derived in part from Space92 polar motion data; zonal response function predictions have also been made employing this recalibrated ocean tide model. Our results indicate that any amount of core coupling can be ruled out at a fortnightly period and probably at a 9-day period, but not at a monthly period. Our results also suggest that the mantle responds purely elastically at a 9-day period but may behave increasingly anelastically at longer periods. A simple dispersive rule is postulated for periods ranging up to the 14-month Chandler wobble period.

Black Sea Mixed Layer Sensitivity to Various Wind and Thermal Forcing Products on Climatological Time Scales

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Kara, A. B; Jurlburt, Harley; Wallcraft, Alan; Bourassa, Mark

2005-01-01

This study describes atmospheric forcing parameters constructed from different global climatologies, applied to the Black Sea, and investigates the sensitivity of HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM...

The Occurrence of Tidal Hybrid Kelvin-Edge Waves in the Global Ocean

Science.gov (United States)

Kaur, H.; Buijsman, M. C.; Yankovsky, A. E.; Zhang, T.; Jeon, C. H.

2017-12-01

This study presents the analysis of hybrid Kelvin-edge waves on the continental shelves in a global ocean model. Our objective is to find areas where the transition occurs from Kelvin waves to hybrid Kelvin-edge waves. The change in continental shelf width may convert a Kelvin wave into a hybrid Kelvin-edge wave. In this process the group velocity reaches a minimum and tidal energy is radiated on and/or offshore [Zhang 2016]. We extract M2 SSH (Sea Surface Height) and velocity from the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) and calculate barotropic energy fluxes. We analyze these three areas: the Bay of Biscay, the Amazon Shelf and North West Africa. In these three regions, the continental shelf widens in the propagation direction and the alongshore flux changes its direction towards the coast. A transect is taken at different points in these areas to compute the dispersion relations of the waves on the continental shelf. In model simulations, we change the bathymetry of the Bay of Biscay to study the behavior of the hybrid Kelvin-edge waves. BibliographyZhang, T., and A. E Yankovsky. (2016), On the nature of cross-isobath energy fluxes in topographically modified barotropic semidiurnal Kelvin waves, J. Geophys. Res. Oceans, 121, 3058-3074, doi:10.1002/2015JC011617.

Effects of ocean initial perturbation on developing phase of ENSO in a coupled seasonal prediction model

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Hyun-Chul; Kumar, Arun; Wang, Wanqiu

2018-03-01

Coupled prediction systems for seasonal and inter-annual variability in the tropical Pacific are initialized from ocean analyses. In ocean initial states, small scale perturbations are inevitably smoothed or distorted by the observational limits and data assimilation procedures, which tends to induce potential ocean initial errors for the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction. Here, the evolution and effects of ocean initial errors from the small scale perturbation on the developing phase of ENSO are investigated by an ensemble of coupled model predictions. Results show that the ocean initial errors at the thermocline in the western tropical Pacific grow rapidly to project on the first mode of equatorial Kelvin wave and propagate to the east along the thermocline. In boreal spring when the surface buoyancy flux weakens in the eastern tropical Pacific, the subsurface errors influence sea surface temperature variability and would account for the seasonal dependence of prediction skill in the NINO3 region. It is concluded that the ENSO prediction in the eastern tropical Pacific after boreal spring can be improved by increasing the observational accuracy of subsurface ocean initial states in the western tropical Pacific.

Predicting Sediment Thickness on Vanished Ocean Crust Since 200 Ma

Science.gov (United States)

Dutkiewicz, A.; Müller, R. D.; Wang, X.; O'Callaghan, S.; Cannon, J.; Wright, N. M.

2017-12-01

Tracing sedimentation through time on existing and vanished seafloor is imperative for constraining long-term eustasy and for calculating volumes of subducted deep-sea sediments that contribute to global geochemical cycles. We present regression algorithms that incorporate the age of the ocean crust and the mean distance to the nearest passive margin to predict sediment thicknesses and long-term decompacted sedimentation rates since 200 Ma. The mean sediment thickness decreases from ˜220 m at 200 Ma to a minimum of ˜140 m at 130 Ma, reflecting the replacement of old Panthalassic ocean floor with young sediment-poor mid-ocean ridges, followed by an increase to ˜365 m at present-day. This increase reflects the accumulation of sediments on ageing abyssal plains proximal to passive margins, coupled with a decrease in the mean distance of any parcel of ocean crust to the nearest passive margin by over 700 km, and a doubling of the total passive margin length at present-day. Mean long-term sedimentation rates increase from ˜0.5 cm/ky at 160 Ma to over 0.8 cm/ky today, caused by enhanced terrigenous sediment influx along lengthened passive margins, superimposed by the onset of ocean-wide carbonate sedimentation. Our predictive algorithms, coupled to a plate tectonic model, provide a framework for constraining the seafloor sediment-driven eustatic sea-level component, which has grown from ˜80 to 210 m since 120 Ma. This implies a long-term sea-level rise component of 130 m, partly counteracting the contemporaneous increase in ocean basin depth due to progressive crustal ageing.

A System of Oceanic Reanalysis (SOR) fot the Nordic Seas

Science.gov (United States)

Pnyushkov, A.

2009-04-01

A system of oceanic reanalysis of the Nordic seas (Norwegian, Greenland and Barents seas) directed to the investigations of long period changes in the oceanic climate of the Arctic sub-polar seas was developed. The system of oceanic reanalysys (SOR) includes hybrid coordinate 22-th level ocean model HYCOM [Bleck,2002] and modern oceanographic data assimilation technique based on spectral nudging method. A series of test experiments was carried out and optimal parameters for assimilation routine were choused. These parameters take into account the accuracy of spatial restoring by means objective analysis procedure and phase distortion in modeling fields during monotonous assimilation of monthly distributions. On the basis of modeling results a set of monthly mean hydrological distributions of thermohaline parameters was created for the Nordic seas that was used for climatic field compilations on the standard levels for period 1957-1990. The data of reanalysis system projections allow us to restore the information about structure and dynamic of oceanographic fields for the periods and areas with a small number of direct measurements, for example East-Greenland currents area, north and north-east parts of the Barents sea. A series of additional experiments with SOR were performed directed to the simple assimilation of sea ice concentration data. A significant improvement of the system of objectively analyzed field preparation was done during 2008 including additional validation procedure of gridded arrays with using the direct data of oceanographic stations. This work was supported by Russian Foundation for Basic Research (grant 07-05-00393).

Upper ocean response to the passage of two sequential typhoons

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Renhao; Li, Chunyan

2018-02-01

Two sequential typhoons, separated by five days, Chan-hom and Nangka in the summer of 2015, provided a unique opportunity to study the oceanic response and cold wake evolution. The upper ocean response to the passage of these two typhoons was investigated using multi-satellite, Argo float data and HYCOM global model output. The sea surface cooling (SSC) induced by Chan-hom was gradually enhanced along its track when the storm was intensified while moving over the ocean with shallow mixed layer. The location of maximum cooling of sea surface was determined by the storm's translation speed as well as pre-typhoon oceanic conditions. As a fast-moving storm, Chan-hom induced significant SSC on the right side of its track. Localized maximum cooling patches are found over a cyclonic eddy (CE). An analysis of data from Argo floats near the track of Chan-hom demonstrated that the mixed layer temperature (MLT) and mixed layer depth (MLD) had more variabilities on the right side than those on the left side of Chan-hom's track, while mixed layer salinity (MLS) response was different from those of MLT and MLD with an increase in salinity to the right side and a decrease in salinity to the left side of the track. Subsequently, because of the remnant effect of Chan-hom, the strong upwelling induced by Typhoon Nangka, the pre-existing CE as well as a slow translation speed (process. The enhancement of chlorophyll-a concentrations was also noticed at both the CE region and close to Chan-hom's track.

Influence of Met-Ocean Condition Forecasting Uncertainties on Weather Window Predictions for Offshore Operations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gintautas, Tomas; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

2017-01-01

The article briefly presents a novel methodology of weather window estimation for offshore operations and mainly focuses on effects of met-ocean condition forecasting uncertainties on weather window predictions when using the proposed methodology. It is demonstrated that the proposed methodology...... to include stochastic variables, representing met-ocean forecasting uncertainties and the results of such modification are given in terms of predicted weather windows for a selected test case....

Predicted net efflux of radiocarbon from the ocean and increase in atmospheric radiocarbon content

Science.gov (United States)

Caldeira, Ken; Rau, Greg H.; Duffy, Philip B.

Prior to changes introduced by man, production of radiocarbon (14C) in the stratosphere nearly balanced the flux of 14C from the atmosphere to the ocean and land biosphere, which in turn nearly balanced radioactive decay in these 14C reservoirs. This balance has been altered by land-use changes, fossil-fuel burning, and atmospheric nuclear detonations. Here, we use a model of the global carbon cycle to quantify these radiocarbon fluxes and make predictions about their magnitude in the future. Atmospheric nuclear detonations increased atmospheric 14C content by about 80% by the mid-1960's. Since that time, the 14C content of the atmosphere has been diminishing as this bomb radiocarbon has been entering the oceans and terrestrial biosphere. However, we predict that atmospheric 14C content will reach a minimum and start to increase within the next few years if fossil-fuel burning continues according to a “business-as-usual” scenario, even though fossil fuels are devoid of 14C. This will happen because fossil-fuel carbon diminishes the net flux of 14C from the atmosphere to the oceans and land biosphere, forcing 14C to accumulate in the atmosphere. Furthermore, the net flux of both bomb and natural 14C into the ocean are predicted to continue to slow and then, in the middle of the next century, to reverse, so that there will be a net flux of 14C from the ocean to the atmosphere. The predicted reversal of net 14C fluxes into the ocean is a further example of human impacts on the global carbon cycle.

Seasonal Variability of Salt Transports in the Northern Indian Ocean

Science.gov (United States)

D'Addezio, J. M.; Bulusu, S.

2016-02-01

Due to limited observational data in the Indian Ocean compared to other regions of the global ocean, past work on the Northern Indian Ocean (NIO) has relied heavily upon model analysis to study the variability of regional salinity advection caused by the monsoon seasons. With the launch of the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite in 2009 and the Aquarius SAC-D mission in 2011 (ended on June 7, 2011), remotely sensed, synoptic scale sea surface salinity (SSS) data is now readily available to study this dynamic region. The new observational data has allowed us to revisit the region to analyze seasonal variability of salinity advection in the NIO using several modeled products, the Aquarius and SMOS satellites, and Argo floats data. The model simulations include the Consortium for Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO2), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts - Ocean Reanalysis System 4 (ECMWF-ORSA4), Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) Reanalysis, and HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM). Our analyses of salinity at the surface and at depths up to 200 m, surface salt transport in the top 5 m layer, and depth-integrated salt transports revealed different salinity processes in the NIO that are dominantly related to the semi-annual monsoons. Aquarius and SMOS prove useful tools for observing this dynamic region, and reveal some aspects of SSS that Argo cannot resolve. Meridional depth-integrated salt transports using the modeled products along 6°N revealed dominant advective processes from the surface towards near-bottom depths. Finally, a difference in subsurface salinity stratification causes many of the modeled products to incorrectly estimate the magnitude and seasonality of NIO barrier layer thickness (BLT) when compared to the Argo solution. This problem is also evident in model output from the Seychelles-Chagos Thermocline Ridge (SCTR), a region with strong air-sea teleconnections with the Arabian Sea.

Sensitivity of decadal predictions to the initial atmospheric and oceanic perturbations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Du, H.; Garcia-Serrano, J.; Guemas, V.; Soufflet, Y. [Institut Catala de Ciencies del Clima (IC3), Barcelona (Spain); Doblas-Reyes, F.J. [Institut Catala de Ciencies del Clima (IC3), Barcelona (Spain); Institucio Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avancats (ICREA), Barcelona (Spain); Wouters, B. [Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt (Netherlands)

2012-10-15

A coupled global atmosphere-ocean model is employed to investigate the impact of initial perturbation methods on the behaviour of five-member ensemble decadal re-forecasts. Three initial-condition perturbation strategies, atmosphere only, ocean only and atmosphere-ocean, have been used and the impact on selected variables have been investigated. The impact has been assessed in terms of climate drift, forecast quality and spread. The simulated global means of near-surface air temperature (T2M), sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice area (SIA) for both Arctic and Antarctic show reasonably good quality, in spite of the non-negligible drift of the model. The skill in terms of correlation is not significantly affected by the particular perturbation method employed. The ensemble spread generated for T2M, SST and land surface precipitation (PCP) saturates quickly with any of the perturbation methods. However, for SIA, Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and ocean heat content (OHC), the spread increases substantially during the forecast time when ocean perturbations are applied. Ocean perturbations are particularly important for Antarctic SIA and OHC for the middle and deep layers of the ocean. The results will be helpful in the design of ensemble prediction experiments. (orig.)

Massive Cloud-Based Big Data Processing for Ocean Sensor Networks and Remote Sensing

Science.gov (United States)

Schwehr, K. D.

2017-12-01

Until recently, the work required to integrate and analyze data for global-scale environmental issues was prohibitive both in cost and availability. Traditional desktop processing systems are not able to effectively store and process all the data, and super computer solutions are financially out of the reach of most people. The availability of large-scale cloud computing has created tools that are usable by small groups and individuals regardless of financial resources or locally available computational resources. These systems give scientists and policymakers the ability to see how critical resources are being used across the globe with little or no barrier to entry. Google Earth Engine has the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Terra, MODIS Aqua, and Global Land Data Assimilation Systems (GLDAS) data catalogs available live online. Here we demonstrate these data to calculate the correlation between lagged chlorophyll and rainfall to identify areas of eutrophication, matching these events to ocean currents from datasets like HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) to check if there are constraints from oceanographic configurations. The system can provide addition ground truth with observations from sensor networks like the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set / Voluntary Observing Ship (ICOADS/VOS) and Argo floats. This presentation is intended to introduce users to the datasets, programming idioms, and functionality of Earth Engine for large-scale, data-driven oceanography.

Develop a Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model with Data Assimilation Capabilities

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Thacker, W. C

2003-01-01

.... The objectives of the research are as follows: (1) to develop a methodology for assimilating temperature and salinity profiles from XBT, CTD, and ARGO float data that accommodates the peculiarities of HYCOM's hybrid vertical coordinates, allowing...

Seychelles Dome variability in a high resolution ocean model

Science.gov (United States)

Nyadjro, E. S.; Jensen, T.; Richman, J. G.; Shriver, J. F.

2016-02-01

The Seychelles-Chagos Thermocline Ridge (SCTR; 5ºS-10ºS, 50ºE-80ºE) in the tropical Southwest Indian Ocean (SWIO) has been recognized as a region of prominence with regards to climate variability in the Indian Ocean. Convective activities in this region have regional consequences as it affect socio-economic livelihood of the people especially in the countries along the Indian Ocean rim. The SCTR is characterized by a quasi-permanent upwelling that is often associated with thermocline shoaling. This upwelling affects sea surface temperature (SST) variability. We present results on the variability and dynamics of the SCTR as simulated by the 1/12º high resolution HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM). It is observed that locally, wind stress affects SST via Ekman pumping of cooler subsurface waters, mixing and anomalous zonal advection. Remotely, wind stress curl in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean generates westward-propagating Rossby waves that impacts the depth of the thermocline which in turn impacts SST variability in the SCTR region. The variability of the contributions of these processes, especially with regard to the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are further examined. In a typical positive IOD (PIOD) year, the net vertical velocity in the SCTR is negative year-round as easterlies along the region are intensified leading to a strong positive curl. This vertical velocity is caused mainly by anomalous local Ekman downwelling (with peak during September-November), a direct opposite to the climatology scenario when local Ekman pumping is positive (upwelling favorable) year-round. The anomalous remote contribution to the vertical velocity changes is minimal especially during the developing and peak stages of PIOD events. In a typical negative IOD (NIOD) year, anomalous vertical velocity is positive almost year-round with peaks in May and October. The remote contribution is positive, in contrast to the climatology and most of the PIOD years.

Ice–ocean coupled computations for sea-ice prediction to support ice navigation in Arctic sea routes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Liyanarachchi Waruna Arampath De Silva

2015-11-01

Full Text Available With the recent rapid decrease in summer sea ice in the Arctic Ocean extending the navigation period in the Arctic sea routes (ASR, the precise prediction of ice distribution is crucial for safe and efficient navigation in the Arctic Ocean. In general, however, most of the available numerical models have exhibited significant uncertainties in short-term and narrow-area predictions, especially in marginal ice zones such as the ASR. In this study, we predict short-term sea-ice conditions in the ASR by using a mesoscale eddy-resolving ice–ocean coupled model that explicitly treats ice floe collisions in marginal ice zones. First, numerical issues associated with collision rheology in the ice–ocean coupled model (ice–Princeton Ocean Model [POM] are discussed and resolved. A model for the whole of the Arctic Ocean with a coarser resolution (about 25 km was developed to investigate the performance of the ice–POM model by examining the reproducibility of seasonal and interannual sea-ice variability. It was found that this coarser resolution model can reproduce seasonal and interannual sea-ice variations compared to observations, but it cannot be used to predict variations over the short-term, such as one to two weeks. Therefore, second, high-resolution (about 2.5 km regional models were set up along the ASR to investigate the accuracy of short-term sea-ice predictions. High-resolution computations were able to reasonably reproduce the sea-ice extent compared to Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer–Earth Observing System satellite observations because of the improved expression of the ice–albedo feedback process and the ice–eddy interaction process.

Thermodynamic ocean-atmosphere Coupling and the Predictability of Nordeste rainfall

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, P.; Saravanan, R.; Giannini, A.

2003-04-01

The interannual variability of rainfall in the northeastern region of Brazil, or Nordeste, is known to be very strongly correlated with sea surface temperature (SST) variability, of Atlantic and Pacific origin. For this reason the potential predictability of Nordeste rainfall is high. The current generation of state-of-the-art atmospheric models can replicate the observed rainfall variability with high skill when forced with the observed record of SST variability. The correlation between observed and modeled indices of Nordeste rainfall, in the AMIP-style integrations with two such models (NSIPP and CCM3) analyzed here, is of the order of 0.8, i.e. the models explain about 2/3 of the observed variability. Assuming that thermodynamic, ocean-atmosphere heat exchange plays the dominant role in tropical Atlantic SST variability on the seasonal to interannual time scale, we analyze its role in Nordeste rainfall predictability using an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a slab ocean model. Predictability experiments initialized with observed December SST show that thermodynamic coupling plays a significant role in enhancing the persistence of SST anomalies, both in the tropical Pacific and in the tropical Atlantic. We show that thermodynamic coupling is sufficient to provide fairly accurate forecasts of tropical Atlantic SST in the boreal spring that are significantly better than the persistence forecasts. The consequences for the prediction of Nordeste rainfall are analyzed.

Multi-Scale Three-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation System for Coastal Ocean Prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Zhijin; Chao, Yi; Li, P. Peggy

2012-01-01

A multi-scale three-dimensional variational data assimilation system (MS-3DVAR) has been formulated and the associated software system has been developed for improving high-resolution coastal ocean prediction. This system helps improve coastal ocean prediction skill, and has been used in support of operational coastal ocean forecasting systems and field experiments. The system has been developed to improve the capability of data assimilation for assimilating, simultaneously and effectively, sparse vertical profiles and high-resolution remote sensing surface measurements into coastal ocean models, as well as constraining model biases. In this system, the cost function is decomposed into two separate units for the large- and small-scale components, respectively. As such, data assimilation is implemented sequentially from large to small scales, the background error covariance is constructed to be scale-dependent, and a scale-dependent dynamic balance is incorporated. This scheme then allows effective constraining large scales and model bias through assimilating sparse vertical profiles, and small scales through assimilating high-resolution surface measurements. This MS-3DVAR enhances the capability of the traditional 3DVAR for assimilating highly heterogeneously distributed observations, such as along-track satellite altimetry data, and particularly maximizing the extraction of information from limited numbers of vertical profile observations.

Enabling Persistent Autonomy for Underwater Gliders with Ocean Model Predictions and Terrain Based Navigation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrew eStuntz

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Effective study of ocean processes requires sampling over the duration of long (weeks to months oscillation patterns. Such sampling requires persistent, autonomous underwater vehicles, that have a similarly long deployment duration. The spatiotemporal dynamics of the ocean environment, coupled with limited communication capabilities, make navigation and localization difficult, especially in coastal regions where the majority of interesting phenomena occur. In this paper, we consider the combination of two methods for reducing navigation and localization error; a predictive approach based on ocean model predictions and a prior information approach derived from terrain-based navigation. The motivation for this work is not only for real-time state estimation, but also for accurately reconstructing the actual path that the vehicle traversed to contextualize the gathered data, with respect to the science question at hand. We present an application for the practical use of priors and predictions for large-scale ocean sampling. This combined approach builds upon previous works by the authors, and accurately localizes the traversed path of an underwater glider over long-duration, ocean deployments. The proposed method takes advantage of the reliable, short-term predictions of an ocean model, and the utility of priors used in terrain-based navigation over areas of significant bathymetric relief to bound uncertainty error in dead-reckoning navigation. This method improves upon our previously published works by 1 demonstrating the utility of our terrain-based navigation method with multiple field trials, and 2 presenting a hybrid algorithm that combines both approaches to bound navigational error and uncertainty for long-term deployments of underwater vehicles. We demonstrate the approach by examining data from actual field trials with autonomous underwater gliders, and demonstrate an ability to estimate geographical location of an underwater glider to 2

Will high-resolution global ocean models benefit coupled predictions on short-range to climate timescales?

Science.gov (United States)

Hewitt, Helene T.; Bell, Michael J.; Chassignet, Eric P.; Czaja, Arnaud; Ferreira, David; Griffies, Stephen M.; Hyder, Pat; McClean, Julie L.; New, Adrian L.; Roberts, Malcolm J.

2017-12-01

As the importance of the ocean in the weather and climate system is increasingly recognised, operational systems are now moving towards coupled prediction not only for seasonal to climate timescales but also for short-range forecasts. A three-way tension exists between the allocation of computing resources to refine model resolution, the expansion of model complexity/capability, and the increase of ensemble size. Here we review evidence for the benefits of increased ocean resolution in global coupled models, where the ocean component explicitly represents transient mesoscale eddies and narrow boundary currents. We consider lessons learned from forced ocean/sea-ice simulations; from studies concerning the SST resolution required to impact atmospheric simulations; and from coupled predictions. Impacts of the mesoscale ocean in western boundary current regions on the large-scale atmospheric state have been identified. Understanding of air-sea feedback in western boundary currents is modifying our view of the dynamics in these key regions. It remains unclear whether variability associated with open ocean mesoscale eddies is equally important to the large-scale atmospheric state. We include a discussion of what processes can presently be parameterised in coupled models with coarse resolution non-eddying ocean models, and where parameterizations may fall short. We discuss the benefits of resolution and identify gaps in the current literature that leave important questions unanswered.

Development of wavelet-ANN models to predict water quality parameters in Hilo Bay, Pacific Ocean.

Science.gov (United States)

Alizadeh, Mohamad Javad; Kavianpour, Mohamad Reza

2015-09-15

The main objective of this study is to apply artificial neural network (ANN) and wavelet-neural network (WNN) models for predicting a variety of ocean water quality parameters. In this regard, several water quality parameters in Hilo Bay, Pacific Ocean, are taken under consideration. Different combinations of water quality parameters are applied as input variables to predict daily values of salinity, temperature and DO as well as hourly values of DO. The results demonstrate that the WNN models are superior to the ANN models. Also, the hourly models developed for DO prediction outperform the daily models of DO. For the daily models, the most accurate model has R equal to 0.96, while for the hourly model it reaches up to 0.98. Overall, the results show the ability of the model to monitor the ocean parameters, in condition with missing data, or when regular measurement and monitoring are impossible. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimation of the barrier layer thickness in the Indian Ocean using Aquarius Salinity.

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Felton, C.S.; Subrahmanyam, B.; Murty, V.S.N; Shriver, J.F.

, as well as the advantages and disadvantages of the current model are discussed. BLT estimations using HYCOM simulations display large errors that are related to model layer structure and the selected BLT methodology....

South African seasonal rainfall prediction performance by a coupled ocean-atmosphere model

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Landman, WA

2010-12-01

Full Text Available Evidence is presented that coupled ocean-atmosphere models can already outscore computationally less expensive atmospheric models. However, if the atmospheric models are forced with highly skillful SST predictions, they may still be a very strong...

Operational Ocean Modelling with the Harvard Ocean Prediction System

Science.gov (United States)

2008-11-01

tno.nl TNO-rapportnummer TNO-DV2008 A417 Opdrachtnummer Datum november 2008 Auteur (s) dr. F.P.A. Lam dr. ir. M.W. Schouten dr. L.A. te Raa...area of theory and implementation of numerical schemes and parameterizations, ocean models have grown from experimental tools to full-blown ocean...sound propagation through mesoscale features using 3-D coupled mode theory , Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, USA. 1992. [9] Robinson

Decadal climate predictability in the southern Indian Ocean captured by SINTEX-F using a simple SST-nudging scheme.

Science.gov (United States)

Morioka, Yushi; Doi, Takeshi; Behera, Swadhin K

2018-01-26

Decadal climate variability in the southern Indian Ocean has great influences on southern African climate through modulation of atmospheric circulation. Although many efforts have been made to understanding physical mechanisms, predictability of the decadal climate variability, in particular, the internally generated variability independent from external atmospheric forcing, remains poorly understood. This study investigates predictability of the decadal climate variability in the southern Indian Ocean using a coupled general circulation model, called SINTEX-F. The ensemble members of the decadal reforecast experiments were initialized with a simple sea surface temperature (SST) nudging scheme. The observed positive and negative peaks during late 1990s and late 2000s are well reproduced in the reforecast experiments initiated from 1994 and 1999, respectively. The experiments initiated from 1994 successfully capture warm SST and high sea level pressure anomalies propagating from the South Atlantic to the southern Indian Ocean. Also, the other experiments initiated from 1999 skillfully predict phase change from a positive to negative peak. These results suggest that the SST-nudging initialization has the essence to capture the predictability of the internally generated decadal climate variability in the southern Indian Ocean.

Natural Ocean Carbon Cycle Sensitivity to Parameterizations of the Recycling in a Climate Model

Science.gov (United States)

Romanou, A.; Romanski, J.; Gregg, W. W.

2014-01-01

Sensitivities of the oceanic biological pump within the GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies ) climate modeling system are explored here. Results are presented from twin control simulations of the air-sea CO2 gas exchange using two different ocean models coupled to the same atmosphere. The two ocean models (Russell ocean model and Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model, HYCOM) use different vertical coordinate systems, and therefore different representations of column physics. Both variants of the GISS climate model are coupled to the same ocean biogeochemistry module (the NASA Ocean Biogeochemistry Model, NOBM), which computes prognostic distributions for biotic and abiotic fields that influence the air-sea flux of CO2 and the deep ocean carbon transport and storage. In particular, the model differences due to remineralization rate changes are compared to differences attributed to physical processes modeled differently in the two ocean models such as ventilation, mixing, eddy stirring and vertical advection. GISSEH(GISSER) is found to underestimate mixed layer depth compared to observations by about 55% (10 %) in the Southern Ocean and overestimate it by about 17% (underestimate by 2%) in the northern high latitudes. Everywhere else in the global ocean, the two models underestimate the surface mixing by about 12-34 %, which prevents deep nutrients from reaching the surface and promoting primary production there. Consequently, carbon export is reduced because of reduced production at the surface. Furthermore, carbon export is particularly sensitive to remineralization rate changes in the frontal regions of the subtropical gyres and at the Equator and this sensitivity in the model is much higher than the sensitivity to physical processes such as vertical mixing, vertical advection and mesoscale eddy transport. At depth, GISSER, which has a significant warm bias, remineralizes nutrients and carbon faster thereby producing more nutrients and carbon at depth, which

Ocean surface waves in Hurricane Ike (2008) and Superstorm Sandy (2012): Coupled model predictions and observations

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Shuyi S.; Curcic, Milan

2016-07-01

Forecasting hurricane impacts of extreme winds and flooding requires accurate prediction of hurricane structure and storm-induced ocean surface waves days in advance. The waves are complex, especially near landfall when the hurricane winds and water depth varies significantly and the surface waves refract, shoal and dissipate. In this study, we examine the spatial structure, magnitude, and directional spectrum of hurricane-induced ocean waves using a high resolution, fully coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean model and observations. The coupled model predictions of ocean surface waves in Hurricane Ike (2008) over the Gulf of Mexico and Superstorm Sandy (2012) in the northeastern Atlantic and coastal region are evaluated with the NDBC buoy and satellite altimeter observations. Although there are characteristics that are general to ocean waves in both hurricanes as documented in previous studies, wave fields in Ike and Sandy possess unique properties due mostly to the distinct wind fields and coastal bathymetry in the two storms. Several processes are found to significantly modulate hurricane surface waves near landfall. First, the phase speed and group velocities decrease as the waves become shorter and steeper in shallow water, effectively increasing surface roughness and wind stress. Second, the bottom-induced refraction acts to turn the waves toward the coast, increasing the misalignment between the wind and waves. Third, as the hurricane translates over land, the left side of the storm center is characterized by offshore winds over very short fetch, which opposes incoming swell. Landfalling hurricanes produce broader wave spectra overall than that of the open ocean. The front-left quadrant is most complex, where the combination of windsea, swell propagating against the wind, increasing wind-wave stress, and interaction with the coastal topography requires a fully coupled model to meet these challenges in hurricane wave and surge prediction.

Intercomparison of the Gulf Stream in ocean reanalyses: 1993-2010

Science.gov (United States)

Chi, Lequan; Wolfe, Christopher L. P.; Hameed, Sultan

2018-05-01

In recent years, significant progress has been made in the development of high-resolution ocean reanalysis products. This paper compares aspects of the Gulf Stream (GS) from the Florida Straits to south of the Grand Banks-particularly Florida Strait transport, separation of the GS near Cape Hatteras, GS properties along the Oleander Line (from New Jersey to Bermuda), GS path, and the GS north wall positions-in 13 widely used global reanalysis products of various resolutions, including two unconstrained products. A large spread across reanalysis products is found. HYCOM and GLORYS2v4 stand out for their superior performance by most metrics. Some common biases are found in all discussed models; for example, the velocity structure of the GS near the Oleander Line is too symmetrical and the maximum velocity is too weak compared with observations. Less than half of the reanalysis products show significant correlations (at the 95% confidence level) with observations for the GS separation latitude at Cape Hatteras, the GS transport, and net transport across Oleander Line. The cross-stream velocity structure is further discussed by a theoretical model idealizing GS as a smoothed PV front.

Cross Validating Ocean Prediction and Monitoring Systems

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Mooers, Christopher; Meinen, Christopher; Baringer, Molly; Bang, Inkweon; Rhodes, Robert C; Barron, Charlie N; Bub, Frank

2005-01-01

With the ongoing development of ocean circulation models and real-time observing systems, routine estimation of the synoptic state of the ocean is becoming feasible for practical and scientific purposes...

Predicting Kenya Short Rains Using the Indian Ocean SST

Science.gov (United States)

Peng, X.; Albertson, J. D.; Steinschneider, S.

2017-12-01

The rainfall over the Eastern Africa is charaterized by the typical bimodal monsoon system. Literatures have shown that the monsoon system is closely connected with the large-scale atmospheric motion which is believed to be driven by sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA). Therefore, we may make use of the predictability of SSTA in estimating future Easter Africa monsoon. In this study, we tried predict the Kenya short rains (Oct, Nov and Dec rainfall) based on the Indian Ocean SSTA. The Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regression is used to avoid over-fitting issues. Models for different lead times are trained using a 28-year training set (2006-1979) and are tested using a 10-year test set (2007-2016). Satisfying prediciton skills are achieved at relatively long lead times (i.e., 8 and 10 months) in terms of correlation coefficient and sign accuracy. Unlike some of the previous work, the prediction models are obtained from a data-driven method. Limited predictors are selected for each model and can be used in understanding the underlying physical connection. Still, further investigation is needed since the sampling variability issue cannot be excluded due to the limited sample size.

Dynamical attribution of oceanic prediction uncertainty in the North Atlantic: application to the design of optimal monitoring systems

Science.gov (United States)

Sévellec, Florian; Dijkstra, Henk A.; Drijfhout, Sybren S.; Germe, Agathe

2017-11-01

In this study, the relation between two approaches to assess the ocean predictability on interannual to decadal time scales is investigated. The first pragmatic approach consists of sampling the initial condition uncertainty and assess the predictability through the divergence of this ensemble in time. The second approach is provided by a theoretical framework to determine error growth by estimating optimal linear growing modes. In this paper, it is shown that under the assumption of linearized dynamics and normal distributions of the uncertainty, the exact quantitative spread of ensemble can be determined from the theoretical framework. This spread is at least an order of magnitude less expensive to compute than the approximate solution given by the pragmatic approach. This result is applied to a state-of-the-art Ocean General Circulation Model to assess the predictability in the North Atlantic of four typical oceanic metrics: the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the intensity of its heat transport, the two-dimensional spatially-averaged Sea Surface Temperature (SST) over the North Atlantic, and the three-dimensional spatially-averaged temperature in the North Atlantic. For all tested metrics, except for SST, ˜ 75% of the total uncertainty on interannual time scales can be attributed to oceanic initial condition uncertainty rather than atmospheric stochastic forcing. The theoretical method also provide the sensitivity pattern to the initial condition uncertainty, allowing for targeted measurements to improve the skill of the prediction. It is suggested that a relatively small fleet of several autonomous underwater vehicles can reduce the uncertainty in AMOC strength prediction by 70% for 1-5 years lead times.

Climate Prediction Center (CPC)Oceanic Nino Index

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) is one of the primary indices used to monitor the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The ONI is calculated by averaging sea surface...

South African mid-summer seasonal rainfall prediction performance by a coupled ocean-atmosphere model

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Landman, WA

2011-01-01

Full Text Available . 2000; Goddard and Mason, 2002). Such a so-called two-tiered procedure to predict the outcome of the rainfall season has been employed in South Africa for a number of years already (e.g., Landman et al., 2001). The advent of fully coupled ocean...

Winter habitat predictions of a key Southern Ocean predator, the Antarctic fur seal (Arctocephalus gazella)

Science.gov (United States)

Arthur, Benjamin; Hindell, Mark; Bester, Marthan; De Bruyn, P. J. Nico; Trathan, Phil; Goebel, Michael; Lea, Mary-Anne

2017-06-01

Quantification of the physical and biological environmental factors that influence the spatial distribution of higher trophic species is central to inform management and develop ecosystem models, particularly in light of ocean changes. We used tracking data from 184 female Antarctic fur seals (Arctocephalus gazella) to develop habitat models for three breeding colonies for the poorly studied Southern Ocean winter period. Models were used to identify and predict the broadly important winter foraging habitat and to elucidate the environmental factors influencing these areas. Model predictions closely matched observations and several core areas of foraging habitat were identified for each colony, with notable areas of inter-colony overlap suggesting shared productive foraging grounds. Seals displayed clear choice of foraging habitat, travelling through areas of presumably poorer quality to access habitats that likely offer an energetic advantage in terms of prey intake. The relationships between environmental predictors and foraging habitat varied between colonies, with the principal predictors being wind speed, sea surface temperature, chlorophyll a concentration, bathymetry and distance to the colony. The availability of core foraging areas was not consistent throughout the winter period. The habitat models developed in this study not only reveal the core foraging habitats of Antarctic fur seals from multiple colonies, but can facilitate the hindcasting of historical foraging habitats as well as novel predictions of important habitat for other major colonies currently lacking information of the at-sea distribution of this major Southern Ocean consumer.

Intercomparison of Operational Ocean Forecasting Systems in the framework of GODAE

Science.gov (United States)

Hernandez, F.

2009-04-01

One of the main benefits of the GODAE 10-year activity is the implementation of ocean forecasting systems in several countries. In 2008, several systems are operated routinely, at global or basin scale. Among them, the BLUElink (Australia), HYCOM (USA), MOVE/MRI.COM (Japan), Mercator (France), FOAM (United Kingdom), TOPAZ (Norway) and C-NOOFS (Canada) systems offered to demonstrate their operational feasibility by performing an intercomparison exercise during a three months period (February to April 2008). The objectives were: a) to show that operational ocean forecasting systems are operated routinely in different countries, and that they can interact; b) to perform in a similar way a scientific validation aimed to assess the quality of the ocean estimates, the performance, and forecasting capabilities of each system; and c) to learn from this intercomparison exercise to increase inter-operability and collaboration in real time. The intercomparison relies on the assessment strategy developed for the EU MERSEA project, where diagnostics over the global ocean have been revisited by the GODAE contributors. This approach, based on metrics, allow for each system: a) to verify if ocean estimates are consistent with the current general knowledge of the dynamics; and b) to evaluate the accuracy of delivered products, compared to space and in-situ observations. Using the same diagnostics also allows one to intercompare the results from each system consistently. Water masses and general circulation description by the different systems are consistent with WOA05 Levitus climatology. The large scale dynamics (tropical, subtropical and subpolar gyres ) are also correctly reproduced. At short scales, benefit of high resolution systems can be evidenced on the turbulent eddy field, in particular when compared to eddy kinetic energy deduced from satellite altimetry of drifter observations. Comparisons to high resolution SST products show some discrepancies on ocean surface

Initial conditions and ENSO prediction using a coupled ocean-atmosphere model

Science.gov (United States)

Larow, T. E.; Krishnamurti, T. N.

1998-01-01

A coupled ocean-atmosphere initialization scheme using Newtonian relaxation has been developed for the Florida State University coupled ocean-atmosphere global general circulation model. The initialization scheme is used to initialize the coupled model for seasonal forecasting the boreal summers of 1987 and 1988. The atmosphere model is a modified version of the Florida State University global spectral model, resolution T-42. The ocean general circulation model consists of a slightly modified version of the Hamburg's climate group model described in Latif (1987) and Latif et al. (1993). The coupling is synchronous with information exchanged every two model hours. Using ECMWF atmospheric daily analysis and observed monthly mean SSTs, two, 1-year, time-dependent, Newtonian relaxation were performed using the coupled model prior to conducting the seasonal forecasts. The coupled initializations were conducted from 1 June 1986 to 1 June 1987 and from 1 June 1987 to 1 June 1988. Newtonian relaxation was applied to the prognostic atmospheric vorticity, divergence, temperature and dew point depression equations. In the ocean model the relaxation was applied to the surface temperature. Two, 10-member ensemble integrations were conducted to examine the impact of the coupled initialization on the seasonal forecasts. The initial conditions used for the ensembles are the ocean's final state after the initialization and the atmospheric initial conditions are ECMWF analysis. Examination of the SST root mean square error and anomaly correlations between observed and forecasted SSTs in the Niño-3 and Niño-4 regions for the 2 seasonal forecasts, show closer agreement between the initialized forecast than two, 10-member non-initialized ensemble forecasts. The main conclusion here is that a single forecast with the coupled initialization outperforms, in SST anomaly prediction, against each of the control forecasts (members of the ensemble) which do not include such an initialization

Studies of Ocean Predictability at Decade to Century Time Scales Using a Global Ocean General Circulation Model in a Parallel Computing Environment; FINAL

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barnett, T.P.

1998-01-01

The objectives of this report are to determine the structure of oceanic natural variability at time scales of decades to centuries, characterize the physical mechanisms responsible for the variability; determine the relative importance of heat, fresh water, and moment fluxes on the variability; determine the predictability of the variability on these times scales

Oceanic sources of predictability for MJO propagation across the Maritime Continent in a subset of S2S forecast models

Science.gov (United States)

DeMott, C. A.; Klingaman, N. P.

2017-12-01

Skillful prediction of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) passage across the Maritime Continent (MC) has important implications for global forecasts of high-impact weather events, such as atmospheric rivers and heat waves. The North American teleconnection response to the MJO is strongest when MJO convection is located in the western Pacific Ocean, but many climate and forecast models are deficient in their simulation of MC-crossing MJO events. Compared to atmosphere-only general circulation models (AGCMs), MJO simulation skill generally improves with the addition of ocean feedbacks in coupled GCMs (CGCMs). Using observations, previous studies have noted that the degree of ocean coupling may vary considerably from one MJO event to the next. The coupling mechanisms may be linked to the presence of ocean Equatorial Rossby waves, the sign and amplitude of Equatorial surface currents, and the upper ocean temperature and salinity profiles. In this study, we assess the role of ocean feedbacks to MJO prediction skill using a subset of CGCMs participating in the Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) Project database. Oceanic observational and reanalysis datasets are used to characterize the upper ocean background state for observed MJO events that do and do not propagate beyond the MC. The ability of forecast models to capture the oceanic influence on the MJO is first assessed by quantifying SST forecast skill. Next, a set of previously developed air-sea interaction diagnostics is applied to model output to measure the role of SST perturbations on the forecast MJO. The "SST effect" in forecast MJO events is compared to that obtained from reanalysis data. Leveraging all ensemble members of a given forecast helps disentangle oceanic model biases from atmospheric model biases, both of which can influence the expression of ocean feedbacks in coupled forecast systems. Results of this study will help identify areas of needed model improvement for improved MJO forecasts.

Addressing Common Cloud-Radiation Errors from 4-hour to 4-week Model Prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Benjamin, S.; Sun, S.; Grell, G. A.; Green, B.; Olson, J.; Kenyon, J.; James, E.; Smirnova, T. G.; Brown, J. M.

2017-12-01

Cloud-radiation representation in models for subgrid-scale clouds is a known gap from subseasonal-to-seasonal models down to storm-scale models applied for forecast duration of only a few hours. NOAA/ESRL has been applying common physical parameterizations for scale-aware deep/shallow convection and boundary-layer mixing over this wide range of time and spatial scales, with some progress to be reported in this presentation. The Grell-Freitas scheme (2014, Atmos. Chem. Phys.) and MYNN boundary-layer EDMF scheme (Olson / Benjamin et al. 2016 Mon. Wea. Rev.) have been applied and tested extensively for the NOAA hourly updated 3-km High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) and 13-km Rapid Refresh (RAP) model/assimilation systems over the United States and North America, with targeting toward improvement to boundary-layer evolution and cloud-radiation representation in all seasons. This representation is critical for both warm-season severe convective storm forecasting and for winter-storm prediction of snow and mixed precipitation. At the same time the Grell-Freitas scheme has been applied also as an option for subseasonal forecasting toward improved US week 3-4 prediction with the FIM-HYCOM coupled model (Green et al 2017, MWR). Cloud/radiation evaluation using CERES satellite-based estimates have been applied to both 12-h RAP (13km) and also during Weeks 1-4 from 32-day FIM-HYCOM (60km) forecasts. Initial results reveal that improved cloud representation is needed for both resolutions and now is guiding further refinement for cloud representation including with the Grell-Freitas scheme and with the updated MYNN-EDMF scheme (both now also in global testing as well as with the 3km HRRR and 13km RAP models).

Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Monthly Precipitation Reconstruction of Ocean(PRECO)at Spatial Resolution of 2.5 degree.

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This global monthly precipitation analysis is called the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Precipitation Reconstruction (PREC). This analysis consists of two...

Southern hemisphere ocean CO2 uptake: reconciling atmospheric and oceanic estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roy, T.; Matear, R.; Rayner, P.; Francey, R.

2003-01-01

Using an atmospheric inversion model we investigate the southern hemisphere ocean CO 2 uptake. From sensitivity studies that varied both the initial ocean flux distribution and the atmospheric data used in the inversion, our inversion predicted a total (ocean and land) uptake of 1.65-1.90 Gt C/yr. We assess the consistency between the mean southern hemisphere ocean uptake predicted by an atmospheric inversion model for the 1991-1997 period and the T99 ocean flux estimate based on observed pCO 2 in Takahashi et al. (2002; Deep-Sea Res II, 49, 1601-1622). The inversion can not match the large 1.8 Gt C/yr southern extratropical (20-90 deg S) uptake of the T99 ocean flux estimate without producing either unreasonable land fluxes in the southern mid-latitudes or by increasing the mismatches between observed and simulated atmospheric CO 2 data. The southern extratropical uptake is redistributed between the mid and high latitudes. Our results suggest that the T99 estimate of the Southern Ocean uptake south of 50 deg S is too large, and that the discrepancy reflects the inadequate representation of wintertime conditions in the T99 estimate

Space-for-time substitution in predicting the state of picoplankton and nanoplankton in a changing Arctic Ocean

Science.gov (United States)

Li, William K. W.; Carmack, Eddy C.; McLaughlin, Fiona A.; Nelson, R. John; Williams, William J.

2013-10-01

The Arctic Ocean is changing rapidly but there are no long-term time series observations on the state of the phytoplankton community that could allow a link to be made from physical/chemical pressures to the impact on marine ecosystems. Here, we test the idea that space-for-time (SFT) substitution might predict temporal change in the Canada Basin premised on differences in the present state of phytoplankton in other geographic zones, specifically the ratio in the abundance of picophytoplankton to nanophytoplankton (Pico:Nano). We compared the change in Pico:Nano observed in the Canada Basin from 2004 to 2012 to the different average states of this ratio in 26 other ocean ecological regions. Our results show that as upper ocean nitrate concentration changed in the Canada Basin from year to year, the concomitant change in Pico:Nano was statistically commensurate with the difference that this ratio exhibits between Longhurst ecological provinces in relation to nitrate concentration. Lower average concentration of nitrate in the upper water column is associated with a higher value of Pico:Nano, a result consistent with resource control of phytoplankton size structure in the ocean. We suggest that SFT substitution allows an explanation of temporal progression from spatial pattern as a test of mechanism, but such statistical prediction is not necessarily a projection of future states.

Southern Ocean Predicted Seafloor Topography Poster - MGG9

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This 36 by 48 inch full color poster is MGG Report 9. In many areas of the global ocean, the depth of the seafloor is not well known because survey lines by ships...

A conceptual prediction model for seasonal drought processes using atmospheric and oceanic standardized anomalies: application to regional drought processes in China

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Zhenchen; Lu, Guihua; He, Hai; Wu, Zhiyong; He, Jian

2018-01-01

Reliable drought prediction is fundamental for water resource managers to develop and implement drought mitigation measures. Considering that drought development is closely related to the spatial-temporal evolution of large-scale circulation patterns, we developed a conceptual prediction model of seasonal drought processes based on atmospheric and oceanic standardized anomalies (SAs). Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis is first applied to drought-related SAs at 200 and 500 hPa geopotential height (HGT) and sea surface temperature (SST). Subsequently, SA-based predictors are built based on the spatial pattern of the first EOF modes. This drought prediction model is essentially the synchronous statistical relationship between 90-day-accumulated atmospheric-oceanic SA-based predictors and SPI3 (3-month standardized precipitation index), calibrated using a simple stepwise regression method. Predictor computation is based on forecast atmospheric-oceanic products retrieved from the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2), indicating the lead time of the model depends on that of CFSv2. The model can make seamless drought predictions for operational use after a year-to-year calibration. Model application to four recent severe regional drought processes in China indicates its good performance in predicting seasonal drought development, despite its weakness in predicting drought severity. Overall, the model can be a worthy reference for seasonal water resource management in China.

Changing currents: a strategy for understanding and predicting the changing ocean circulation.

Science.gov (United States)

Bryden, Harry L; Robinson, Carol; Griffiths, Gwyn

2012-12-13

Within the context of UK marine science, we project a strategy for ocean circulation research over the next 20 years. We recommend a focus on three types of research: (i) sustained observations of the varying and evolving ocean circulation, (ii) careful analysis and interpretation of the observed climate changes for comparison with climate model projections, and (iii) the design and execution of focused field experiments to understand ocean processes that are not resolved in coupled climate models so as to be able to embed these processes realistically in the models. Within UK-sustained observations, we emphasize smart, cost-effective design of the observational network to extract maximum information from limited field resources. We encourage the incorporation of new sensors and new energy sources within the operational environment of UK-sustained observational programmes to bridge the gap that normally separates laboratory prototype from operational instrument. For interpreting the climate-change records obtained through a variety of national and international sustained observational programmes, creative and dedicated UK scientists should lead efforts to extract the meaningful signals and patterns of climate change and to interpret them so as to project future changes. For the process studies, individual scientists will need to work together in team environments to combine observational and process modelling results into effective improvements in the coupled climate models that will lead to more accurate climate predictions.

Japan Meteorological Agency/Meteorological Research Institute-Coupled Prediction System version 2 (JMA/MRI-CPS2): atmosphere-land-ocean-sea ice coupled prediction system for operational seasonal forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

Takaya, Yuhei; Hirahara, Shoji; Yasuda, Tamaki; Matsueda, Satoko; Toyoda, Takahiro; Fujii, Yosuke; Sugimoto, Hiroyuki; Matsukawa, Chihiro; Ishikawa, Ichiro; Mori, Hirotoshi; Nagasawa, Ryoji; Kubo, Yutaro; Adachi, Noriyuki; Yamanaka, Goro; Kuragano, Tsurane; Shimpo, Akihiko; Maeda, Shuhei; Ose, Tomoaki

2018-02-01

This paper describes the Japan Meteorological Agency/Meteorological Research Institute-Coupled Prediction System version 2 (JMA/MRI-CPS2), which was put into operation in June 2015 for the purpose of performing seasonal predictions. JMA/MRI-CPS2 has various upgrades from its predecessor, JMA/MRI-CPS1, including improved resolution and physics in its atmospheric and oceanic components, introduction of an interactive sea-ice model and realistic initialization of its land component. Verification of extensive re-forecasts covering a 30-year period (1981-2010) demonstrates that JMA/MRI-CPS2 possesses improved seasonal predictive skills for both atmospheric and oceanic interannual variability as well as key coupled variability such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). For ENSO prediction, the new system better represents the forecast uncertainty and transition/duration of ENSO phases. Our analysis suggests that the enhanced predictive skills are attributable to incremental improvements resulting from all of the changes, as is apparent in the beneficial effects of sea-ice coupling and land initialization on 2-m temperature predictions. JMA/MRI-CPS2 is capable of reasonably representing the seasonal cycle and secular trends of sea ice. The sea-ice coupling remarkably enhances the predictive capability for the Arctic 2-m temperature, indicating the importance of this factor, particularly for seasonal predictions in the Arctic region.

Changes in the C, N, and P cycles by the predicted salps-krill shift in the southern ocean

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Alcaraz, Miquel; Almeda, Rodrigo; Duarte, Carlos M.

2014-01-01

zooplankton biomass and their metabolic rates, each metabolic process showing a particular response that lead to different metabolic N:P ratios. The predicted change from krill to salps in the Southern Ocean would encompass not only the substitution of a pivotal group for Antarctic food webs (krill) by one...... and proportion of N and P in the nutrient pool, inducing quantitative and qualitative changes on primary producers that will translate to the whole Southern Ocean ecosystem....

Boundary Conditions, Data Assimilation, and Predictability in Coastal Ocean Models

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Samelson, Roger M; Allen, John S; Egbert, Gary D; Kindle, John C; Snyder, Chris

2007-01-01

...: The specific objectives of this research are to determine the impact on coastal ocean circulation models of open ocean boundary conditions from Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment (GODAE...

Experiences in multiyear combined state-parameter estimation with an ecosystem model of the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans using the Ensemble Kalman Filter

Science.gov (United States)

Simon, Ehouarn; Samuelsen, Annette; Bertino, Laurent; Mouysset, Sandrine

2015-12-01

A sequence of one-year combined state-parameter estimation experiments has been conducted in a North Atlantic and Arctic Ocean configuration of the coupled physical-biogeochemical model HYCOM-NORWECOM over the period 2007-2010. The aim is to evaluate the ability of an ensemble-based data assimilation method to calibrate ecosystem model parameters in a pre-operational setting, namely the production of the MyOcean pilot reanalysis of the Arctic biology. For that purpose, four biological parameters (two phyto- and two zooplankton mortality rates) are estimated by assimilating weekly data such as, satellite-derived Sea Surface Temperature, along-track Sea Level Anomalies, ice concentrations and chlorophyll-a concentrations with an Ensemble Kalman Filter. The set of optimized parameters locally exhibits seasonal variations suggesting that time-dependent parameters should be used in ocean ecosystem models. A clustering analysis of the optimized parameters is performed in order to identify consistent ecosystem regions. In the north part of the domain, where the ecosystem model is the most reliable, most of them can be associated with Longhurst provinces and new provinces emerge in the Arctic Ocean. However, the clusters do not coincide anymore with the Longhurst provinces in the Tropics due to large model errors. Regarding the ecosystem state variables, the assimilation of satellite-derived chlorophyll concentration leads to significant reduction of the RMS errors in the observed variables during the first year, i.e. 2008, compared to a free run simulation. However, local filter divergences of the parameter component occur in 2009 and result in an increase in the RMS error at the time of the spring bloom.

Extended-range prediction trials using the global cloud/cloud-system resolving model NICAM and its new ocean-coupled version NICOCO

Science.gov (United States)

Miyakawa, Tomoki

2017-04-01

The global cloud/cloud-system resolving model NICAM and its new fully-coupled version NICOCO is run on one of the worlds top-tier supercomputers, the K computer. NICOCO couples the full-3D ocean component COCO of the general circulation model MIROC using a general-purpose coupler Jcup. We carried out multiple MJO simulations using NICAM and the new ocean-coupled version NICOCO to examine their extended-range MJO prediction skills and the impact of ocean coupling. NICAM performs excellently in terms of MJO prediction, maintaining a valid skill up to 27 days after the model is initialized (Miyakawa et al 2014). As is the case in most global models, ocean coupling frees the model from being anchored by the observed SST and allows the model climate to drift away further from reality compared to the atmospheric version of the model. Thus, it is important to evaluate the model bias, and in an initial value problem such as the seasonal extended-range prediction, it is essential to be able to distinguish the actual signal from the early transition of the model from the observed state to its own climatology. Since NICAM is a highly resource-demanding model, evaluation and tuning of the model climatology (order of years) is challenging. Here we focus on the initial 100 days to estimate the early drift of the model, and subsequently evaluate MJO prediction skills of NICOCO. Results show that in the initial 100 days, NICOCO forms a La-Nina like SST bias compared to observation, with a warmer Maritime Continent warm pool and a cooler equatorial central Pacific. The enhanced convection over the Maritime Continent associated with this bias project on to the real-time multi-variate MJO indices (RMM, Wheeler and Hendon 2004), and contaminates the MJO skill score. However, the bias does not appear to demolish the MJO signal severely. The model maintains a valid MJO prediction skill up to nearly 4 weeks when evaluated after linearly removing the early drift component estimated from

Preparing to predict: The Second Autonomous Ocean Sampling Network (AOSN-II) experiment in the Monterey Bay

Science.gov (United States)

Ramp, S. R.; Davis, R. E.; Leonard, N. E.; Shulman, I.; Chao, Y.; Robinson, A. R.; Marsden, J.; Lermusiaux, P. F. J.; Fratantoni, D. M.; Paduan, J. D.; Chavez, F. P.; Bahr, F. L.; Liang, S.; Leslie, W.; Li, Z.

2009-02-01

The Autonomous Ocean Sampling Network Phase Two (AOSN-II) experiment was conducted in and offshore from the Monterey Bay on the central California coast during July 23-September 6, 2003. The objective of the experiment was to learn how to apply new tools, technologies, and analysis techniques to adaptively sample the coastal ocean in a manner demonstrably superior to traditional methodologies, and to use the information gathered to improve predictive skill for quantities of interest to end-users. The scientific goal was to study the upwelling/relaxation cycle near an open coastal bay in an eastern boundary current region, particularly as it developed and spread from a coastal headland. The suite of observational tools used included a low-flying aircraft, a fleet of underwater gliders, including several under adaptive autonomous control, and propeller-driven AUVs in addition to moorings, ships, and other more traditional hardware. The data were delivered in real time and assimilated into the Harvard Ocean Prediction System (HOPS), the Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM), and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory implementation of the Regional Ocean Modeling System (JPL/ROMS). Two upwelling events and one relaxation event were sampled during the experiment. The upwelling in both cases began when a pool of cold water less than 13 °C appeared near Cape Año Nuevo and subsequently spread offshore and southward across the bay as the equatorward wind stress continued. The primary difference between the events was that the first event spread offshore and southward, while the second event spread only southward and not offshore. The difference is attributed to the position and strength of meanders and eddies of the California Current System offshore, which blocked or steered the cold upwelled water. The space and time scales of the mesoscale variability were much shorter than have been previously observed in deep-water eddies offshore. Additional process studies are needed to elucidate

Predicting interactions among fishing, ocean warming, and ocean acidification in a marine system with whole-ecosystem models.

Science.gov (United States)

Griffith, Gary P; Fulton, Elizabeth A; Gorton, Rebecca; Richardson, Anthony J

2012-12-01

An important challenge for conservation is a quantitative understanding of how multiple human stressors will interact to mitigate or exacerbate global environmental change at a community or ecosystem level. We explored the interaction effects of fishing, ocean warming, and ocean acidification over time on 60 functional groups of species in the southeastern Australian marine ecosystem. We tracked changes in relative biomass within a coupled dynamic whole-ecosystem modeling framework that included the biophysical system, human effects, socioeconomics, and management evaluation. We estimated the individual, additive, and interactive effects on the ecosystem and for five community groups (top predators, fishes, benthic invertebrates, plankton, and primary producers). We calculated the size and direction of interaction effects with an additive null model and interpreted results as synergistic (amplified stress), additive (no additional stress), or antagonistic (reduced stress). Individually, only ocean acidification had a negative effect on total biomass. Fishing and ocean warming and ocean warming with ocean acidification had an additive effect on biomass. Adding fishing to ocean warming and ocean acidification significantly changed the direction and magnitude of the interaction effect to a synergistic response on biomass. The interaction effect depended on the response level examined (ecosystem vs. community). For communities, the size, direction, and type of interaction effect varied depending on the combination of stressors. Top predator and fish biomass had a synergistic response to the interaction of all three stressors, whereas biomass of benthic invertebrates responded antagonistically. With our approach, we were able to identify the regional effects of fishing on the size and direction of the interacting effects of ocean warming and ocean acidification. ©2012 Society for Conservation Biology.

Prediction of the Sun-Glint Locations for the Communication, Ocean and Meteorological Satellite

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jae-Ik Park

2005-09-01

Full Text Available For the Communication, Ocean and Meteorological Satellite (COMS which will be launched in 2008, an algorithm for finding the precise location of the sun-glint point on the ocean surface is studied. The precise locations of the sun-glint are estimated by considering azimuth and elevation angles of Sun-satellite-Earth geometric position and the law of reflection. The obtained nonlinear equations are solved by using the Newton-Raphson method. As a result, when COMS is located at 116.2°E or 128.2°E longitude, the sun-glint covers region of ±10° (N-S latitude and 80-150° (E-W longitude. The diurnal path of the sun-glint in the southern hemisphere is curved towards the North Pole, and the path in the northern hemisphere is forwards the south pole. The algorithm presented in this paper can be applied to predict the precise location of sun-glint region in any other geostationary satellites.

Impact of the initialisation on the predictability of the Southern Ocean sea ice at interannual to multi-decadal timescales

Science.gov (United States)

Zunz, Violette; Goosse, Hugues; Dubinkina, Svetlana

2015-04-01

In this study, we assess systematically the impact of different initialisation procedures on the predictability of the sea ice in the Southern Ocean. These initialisation strategies are based on three data assimilation methods: the nudging, the particle filter with sequential importance resampling and the nudging proposal particle filter. An Earth system model of intermediate complexity is used to perform hindcast simulations in a perfect model approach. The predictability of the Antarctic sea ice at interannual to multi-decadal timescales is estimated through two aspects: the spread of the hindcast ensemble, indicating the uncertainty of the ensemble, and the correlation between the ensemble mean and the pseudo-observations, used to assess the accuracy of the prediction. Our results show that at decadal timescales more sophisticated data assimilation methods as well as denser pseudo-observations used to initialise the hindcasts decrease the spread of the ensemble. However, our experiments did not clearly demonstrate that one of the initialisation methods systematically provides with a more accurate prediction of the sea ice in the Southern Ocean than the others. Overall, the predictability at interannual timescales is limited to 3 years ahead at most. At multi-decadal timescales, the trends in sea ice extent computed over the time period just after the initialisation are clearly better correlated between the hindcasts and the pseudo-observations if the initialisation takes into account the pseudo-observations. The correlation reaches values larger than 0.5 in winter. This high correlation has likely its origin in the slow evolution of the ocean ensured by its strong thermal inertia, showing the importance of the quality of the initialisation below the sea ice.

Improving MJO Prediction and Simulation Using AGCM Coupled Ocean Model with Refined Vertical Resolution

Science.gov (United States)

Tu, Chia-Ying; Tseng, Wan-Ling; Kuo, Pei-Hsuan; Lan, Yung-Yao; Tsuang, Ben-Jei; Hsu, Huang-Hsiung

2017-04-01

Precipitation in Taiwan area is significantly influenced by MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) in the boreal winter. This study is therefore conducted by toggling the MJO prediction and simulation with a unique model structure. The one-dimensional TKE (Turbulence Kinetic Energy) type ocean model SIT (Snow, Ice, Thermocline) with refined vertical resolution near surface is able to resolve cool skin, as well as diurnal warm layer. SIT can simulate accurate SST and hence give precise air-sea interaction. By coupling SIT with ECHAM5 (MPI-Meteorology), CAM5 (NCAR) and HiRAM (GFDL), the MJO simulations in 20-yrs climate integrations conducted by three SIT-coupled AGCMs are significant improved comparing to those driven by prescribed SST. The horizontal resolutions in ECHAM5, CAM5 and HiRAM are 2-deg., 1-deg and 0.5-deg., respectively. This suggests that the improvement of MJO simulation by coupling SIT is AGCM-resolution independent. This study further utilizes HiRAM coupled SIT to evaluate its MJO forecast skill. HiRAM has been recognized as one of the best model for seasonal forecasts of hurricane/typhoon activity (Zhao et al., 2009; Chen & Lin, 2011; 2013), but was not as successful in MJO forecast. The preliminary result of the HiRAM-SIT experiment during DYNAMO period shows improved success in MJO forecast. These improvements of MJO prediction and simulation in both hindcast experiments and climate integrations are mainly from better-simulated SST diurnal cycle and diurnal amplitude, which is contributed by the refined vertical resolution near ocean surface in SIT. Keywords: MJO Predictability, DYNAMO

Seasonal Variability of Aragonite Saturation State in the North Pacific Ocean Predicted by Multiple Linear Regression

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, T. W.; Park, G. H.

2014-12-01

Seasonal variation of aragonite saturation state (Ωarag) in the North Pacific Ocean (NPO) was investigated, using multiple linear regression (MLR) models produced from the PACIFICA (Pacific Ocean interior carbon) dataset. Data within depth ranges of 50-1200m were used to derive MLR models, and three parameters (potential temperature, nitrate, and apparent oxygen utilization (AOU)) were chosen as predictor variables because these parameters are associated with vertical mixing, DIC (dissolved inorganic carbon) removal and release which all affect Ωarag in water column directly or indirectly. The PACIFICA dataset was divided into 5° × 5° grids, and a MLR model was produced in each grid, giving total 145 independent MLR models over the NPO. Mean RMSE (root mean square error) and r2 (coefficient of determination) of all derived MLR models were approximately 0.09 and 0.96, respectively. Then the obtained MLR coefficients for each of predictor variables and an intercept were interpolated over the study area, thereby making possible to allocate MLR coefficients to data-sparse ocean regions. Predictability from the interpolated coefficients was evaluated using Hawaiian time-series data, and as a result mean residual between measured and predicted Ωarag values was approximately 0.08, which is less than the mean RMSE of our MLR models. The interpolated MLR coefficients were combined with seasonal climatology of World Ocean Atlas 2013 (1° × 1°) to produce seasonal Ωarag distributions over various depths. Large seasonal variability in Ωarag was manifested in the mid-latitude Western NPO (24-40°N, 130-180°E) and low-latitude Eastern NPO (0-12°N, 115-150°W). In the Western NPO, seasonal fluctuations of water column stratification appeared to be responsible for the seasonal variation in Ωarag (~ 0.5 at 50 m) because it closely followed temperature variations in a layer of 0-75 m. In contrast, remineralization of organic matter was the main cause for the seasonal

Assessment of prediction skill in equatorial Pacific Ocean in high resolution model of CFS

Science.gov (United States)

Arora, Anika; Rao, Suryachandra A.; Pillai, Prasanth; Dhakate, Ashish; Salunke, Kiran; Srivastava, Ankur

2018-01-01

The effect of increasing atmospheric resolution on prediction skill of El Niño southern oscillation phenomenon in climate forecast system model is explored in this paper. Improvement in prediction skill for sea surface temperature (SST) and winds at all leads compared to low resolution model in the tropical Indo-Pacific basin is observed. High resolution model is able to capture extreme events reasonably well. As a result, the signal to noise ratio is improved in the high resolution model. However, spring predictability barrier (SPB) for summer months in Nino 3 and Nino 3.4 region is stronger in high resolution model, in spite of improvement in overall prediction skill and dynamics everywhere else. Anomaly correlation coefficient of SST in high resolution model with observations in Nino 3.4 region targeting boreal summer months when predicted at lead times of 3-8 months in advance decreased compared its lower resolution counterpart. It is noted that higher variance of winds predicted in spring season over central equatorial Pacific compared to observed variance of winds results in stronger than normal response on subsurface ocean, hence increases SPB for boreal summer months in high resolution model.

A simple predictive model for the structure of the oceanic pycnocline

Science.gov (United States)

Gnanadesikan

1999-03-26

A simple theory for the large-scale oceanic circulation is developed, relating pycnocline depth, Northern Hemisphere sinking, and low-latitude upwelling to pycnocline diffusivity and Southern Ocean winds and eddies. The results show that Southern Ocean processes help maintain the global ocean structure and that pycnocline diffusion controls low-latitude upwelling.

Description and verification of a U.S. Naval Research Lab's loosely coupled data assimilation system for the Navy's Earth System Model

Science.gov (United States)

Barton, N. P.; Metzger, E. J.; Smedstad, O. M.; Ruston, B. C.; Wallcraft, A. J.; Whitcomb, T.; Ridout, J. A.; Zamudio, L.; Posey, P.; Reynolds, C. A.; Richman, J. G.; Phelps, M.

2017-12-01

The Naval Research Laboratory is developing an Earth System Model (NESM) to provide global environmental information to meet Navy and Department of Defense (DoD) operations and planning needs from the upper atmosphere to under the sea. This system consists of a global atmosphere, ocean, ice, wave, and land prediction models and the individual models include: atmosphere - NAVy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM); ocean - HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM); sea ice - Community Ice CodE (CICE); WAVEWATCH III™; and land - NAVGEM Land Surface Model (LSM). Data assimilation is currently loosely coupled between the atmosphere component using a 6-hour update cycle in the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) Atmospheric Variational Data Assimilation System - Accelerated Representer (NAVDAS-AR) and the ocean/ice components using a 24-hour update cycle in the Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (NCODA) with 3 hours of incremental updating. This presentation will describe the US Navy's coupled forecast model, the loosely coupled data assimilation, and compare results against stand-alone atmosphere and ocean/ice models. In particular, we will focus on the unique aspects of this modeling system, which includes an eddy resolving ocean model and challenges associated with different update-windows and solvers for the data assimilation in the atmosphere and ocean. Results will focus on typical operational diagnostics for atmosphere, ocean, and ice analyses including 500 hPa atmospheric height anomalies, low-level winds, temperature/salinity ocean depth profiles, ocean acoustical proxies, sea ice edge, and sea ice drift. Overall, the global coupled system is performing with comparable skill to the stand-alone systems.

Sub-seasonal prediction of significant wave heights over the Western Pacific and Indian Oceans, part II: The impact of ENSO and MJO

Science.gov (United States)

Shukla, Ravi P.; Kinter, James L.; Shin, Chul-Su

2018-03-01

This study evaluates the effect of El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) events on 14-day mean significant wave height (SWH) at 3 weeks lead time (Wk34) over the Western Pacific and Indian Oceans using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2). The WAVEWATCH-3 (WW3) model is forced with daily 10m-winds predicted by a modified version of CFSv2 that is initialized with multiple ocean analyses in both January and May for 1979-2008. A significant anomaly correlation of predicted and observed SWH anomalies (SWHA) at Wk34 lead-time is found over portions of the domain, including the central western Pacific, South China Sea (SCS), Bay of Bengal (BOB) and southern Indian Ocean (IO) in January cases, and over BOB, equatorial western Pacific, the Maritime Continent and southern IO in May cases. The model successfully predicts almost all the important features of the observed composite SWHA during El Niño events in January, including negative SWHA in the central IO where westerly wind anomalies act on an easterly mean state, and positive SWHA over the southern Ocean (SO) where westerly wind anomalies act on a westerly mean state. The model successfully predicts the sign and magnitude of SWHA at Wk34 lead-time in May over the BOB and SCS in composites of combined phases-2-3 and phases-6-7 of MJO. The observed leading mode of SWHA in May and the third mode of SWHA in January are influenced by the combined effects of ENSO and MJO. Based on spatial and temporal correlations, the spatial patterns of SWHA in the model at Wk34 in both January and May are in good agreement with the observations over the equatorial western Pacific, equatorial and southern IO, and SO.

Regional Ocean Data Assimilation

KAUST Repository

Edwards, Christopher A.

2015-01-03

This article reviews the past 15 years of developments in regional ocean data assimilation. A variety of scientific, management, and safety-related objectives motivate marine scientists to characterize many ocean environments, including coastal regions. As in weather prediction, the accurate representation of physical, chemical, and/or biological properties in the ocean is challenging. Models and observations alone provide imperfect representations of the ocean state, but together they can offer improved estimates. Variational and sequential methods are among the most widely used in regional ocean systems, and there have been exciting recent advances in ensemble and four-dimensional variational approaches. These techniques are increasingly being tested and adapted for biogeochemical applications.

OceanSITES RAMA daily in-situ data

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — OceanSITES daily in-situ data. OceanSITES Global Tropical Moored Buoy Array Research Moored Array for African-Asian-Australian Monsoon Analysis and Prediction (RAMA)...

Decadal prediction skill in the ocean with surface nudging in the IPSL-CM5A-LR climate model

Science.gov (United States)

Mignot, Juliette; García-Serrano, Javier; Swingedouw, Didier; Germe, Agathe; Nguyen, Sébastien; Ortega, Pablo; Guilyardi, Eric; Ray, Sulagna

2016-08-01

Two decadal prediction ensembles, based on the same climate model (IPSL-CM5A-LR) and the same surface nudging initialization strategy are analyzed and compared with a focus on upper-ocean variables in different regions of the globe. One ensemble consists of 3-member hindcasts launched every year since 1961 while the other ensemble benefits from 9 members but with start dates only every 5 years. Analysis includes anomaly correlation coefficients and root mean square errors computed against several reanalysis and gridded observational fields, as well as against the nudged simulation used to produce the hindcasts initial conditions. The last skill measure gives an upper limit of the predictability horizon one can expect in the forecast system, while the comparison with different datasets highlights uncertainty when assessing the actual skill. Results provide a potential prediction skill (verification against the nudged simulation) beyond the linear trend of the order of 10 years ahead at the global scale, but essentially associated with non-linear radiative forcings, in particular from volcanoes. At regional scale, we obtain 1 year in the tropical band, 10 years at midlatitudes in the North Atlantic and North Pacific, and 5 years at tropical latitudes in the North Atlantic, for both sea surface temperature (SST) and upper-ocean heat content. Actual prediction skill (verified against observational or reanalysis data) is overall more limited and less robust. Even so, large actual skill is found in the extratropical North Atlantic for SST and in the tropical to subtropical North Pacific for upper-ocean heat content. Results are analyzed with respect to the specific dynamics of the model and the way it is influenced by the nudging. The interplay between initialization and internal modes of variability is also analyzed for sea surface salinity. The study illustrates the importance of two key ingredients both necessary for the success of future coordinated decadal

Use of Ocean Remote Sensing Data to Enhance Predictions with a Coupled General Circulation Model

Science.gov (United States)

Rienecker, Michele M.

1999-01-01

Surface height, sea surface temperature and surface wind observations from satellites have given a detailed time sequence of the initiation and evolution of the 1997/98 El Nino. The data have beet complementary to the subsurface TAO moored data in their spatial resolution and extent. The impact of satellite observations on seasonal prediction in the tropical Pacific using a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model will be presented.

Climate variability and predictability associated with the Indo-Pacific Oceanic Channel Dynamics in the CCSM4 Coupled System Model

Science.gov (United States)

Yuan, Dongliang; Xu, Peng; Xu, Tengfei

2017-01-01

An experiment using the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4), a participant of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase-5 (CMIP5), is analyzed to assess the skills of this model in simulating and predicting the climate variabilities associated with the oceanic channel dynamics across the Indo-Pacific Oceans. The results of these analyses suggest that the model is able to reproduce the observed lag correlation between the oceanic anomalies in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean and those in the cold tongue in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean at a time lag of 1 year. This success may be largely attributed to the successful simulation of the interannual variations of the Indonesian Throughflow, which carries the anomalies of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) into the western equatorial Pacific Ocean to produce subsurface temperature anomalies, which in turn propagate to the eastern equatorial Pacific to generate ENSO. This connection is termed the "oceanic channel dynamics" and is shown to be consistent with the observational analyses. However, the model simulates a weaker connection between the IOD and the interannual variability of the Indonesian Throughflow transport than found in the observations. In addition, the model overestimates the westerly wind anomalies in the western-central equatorial Pacific in the year following the IOD, which forces unrealistic upwelling Rossby waves in the western equatorial Pacific and downwelling Kelvin waves in the east. This assessment suggests that the CCSM4 coupled climate system has underestimated the oceanic channel dynamics and overestimated the atmospheric bridge processes.

Predicting bycatch hotspots for endangered leatherback turtles on longlines in the Pacific Ocean.

Science.gov (United States)

Roe, John H; Morreale, Stephen J; Paladino, Frank V; Shillinger, George L; Benson, Scott R; Eckert, Scott A; Bailey, Helen; Tomillo, Pilar Santidrián; Bograd, Steven J; Eguchi, Tomoharu; Dutton, Peter H; Seminoff, Jeffrey A; Block, Barbara A; Spotila, James R

2014-02-22

Fisheries bycatch is a critical source of mortality for rapidly declining populations of leatherback turtles, Dermochelys coriacea. We integrated use-intensity distributions for 135 satellite-tracked adult turtles with longline fishing effort to estimate predicted bycatch risk over space and time in the Pacific Ocean. Areas of predicted bycatch risk did not overlap for eastern and western Pacific nesting populations, warranting their consideration as distinct management units with respect to fisheries bycatch. For western Pacific nesting populations, we identified several areas of high risk in the north and central Pacific, but greatest risk was adjacent to primary nesting beaches in tropical seas of Indo-Pacific islands, largely confined to several exclusive economic zones under the jurisdiction of national authorities. For eastern Pacific nesting populations, we identified moderate risk associated with migrations to nesting beaches, but the greatest risk was in the South Pacific Gyre, a broad pelagic zone outside national waters where management is currently lacking and may prove difficult to implement. Efforts should focus on these predicted hotspots to develop more targeted management approaches to alleviate leatherback bycatch.

Seasonality in ocean microbial communities.

Science.gov (United States)

Giovannoni, Stephen J; Vergin, Kevin L

2012-02-10

Ocean warming occurs every year in seasonal cycles that can help us to understand long-term responses of plankton to climate change. Rhythmic seasonal patterns of microbial community turnover are revealed when high-resolution measurements of microbial plankton diversity are applied to samples collected in lengthy time series. Seasonal cycles in microbial plankton are complex, but the expansion of fixed ocean stations monitoring long-term change and the development of automated instrumentation are providing the time-series data needed to understand how these cycles vary across broad geographical scales. By accumulating data and using predictive modeling, we gain insights into changes that will occur as the ocean surface continues to warm and as the extent and duration of ocean stratification increase. These developments will enable marine scientists to predict changes in geochemical cycles mediated by microbial communities and to gauge their broader impacts.

Comparison of full field and anomaly initialisation for decadal climate prediction: towards an optimal consistency between the ocean and sea-ice anomaly initialisation state

Science.gov (United States)

Volpi, Danila; Guemas, Virginie; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J.

2017-08-01

Decadal prediction exploits sources of predictability from both the internal variability through the initialisation of the climate model from observational estimates, and the external radiative forcings. When a model is initialised with the observed state at the initial time step (Full Field Initialisation—FFI), the forecast run drifts towards the biased model climate. Distinguishing between the climate signal to be predicted and the model drift is a challenging task, because the application of a-posteriori bias correction has the risk of removing part of the variability signal. The anomaly initialisation (AI) technique aims at addressing the drift issue by answering the following question: if the model is allowed to start close to its own attractor (i.e. its biased world), but the phase of the simulated variability is constrained toward the contemporaneous observed one at the initialisation time, does the prediction skill improve? The relative merits of the FFI and AI techniques applied respectively to the ocean component and the ocean and sea ice components simultaneously in the EC-Earth global coupled model are assessed. For both strategies the initialised hindcasts show better skill than historical simulations for the ocean heat content and AMOC along the first two forecast years, for sea ice and PDO along the first forecast year, while for AMO the improvements are statistically significant for the first two forecast years. The AI in the ocean and sea ice components significantly improves the skill of the Arctic sea surface temperature over the FFI.

Towards a suite of test cases and a pycomodo library to assess and improve numerical methods in ocean models

Science.gov (United States)

Garnier, Valérie; Honnorat, Marc; Benshila, Rachid; Boutet, Martial; Cambon, Gildas; Chanut, Jérome; Couvelard, Xavier; Debreu, Laurent; Ducousso, Nicolas; Duhaut, Thomas; Dumas, Franck; Flavoni, Simona; Gouillon, Flavien; Lathuilière, Cyril; Le Boyer, Arnaud; Le Sommer, Julien; Lyard, Florent; Marsaleix, Patrick; Marchesiello, Patrick; Soufflet, Yves

2016-04-01

The COMODO group (http://www.comodo-ocean.fr) gathers developers of global and limited-area ocean models (NEMO, ROMS_AGRIF, S, MARS, HYCOM, S-TUGO) with the aim to address well-identified numerical issues. In order to evaluate existing models, to improve numerical approaches and methods or concept (such as effective resolution) to assess the behavior of numerical model in complex hydrodynamical regimes and to propose guidelines for the development of future ocean models, a benchmark suite that covers both idealized test cases dedicated to targeted properties of numerical schemes and more complex test case allowing the evaluation of the kernel coherence is proposed. The benchmark suite is built to study separately, then together, the main components of an ocean model : the continuity and momentum equations, the advection-diffusion of the tracers, the vertical coordinate design and the time stepping algorithms. The test cases are chosen for their simplicity of implementation (analytic initial conditions), for their capacity to focus on a (few) scheme or part of the kernel, for the availability of analytical solutions or accurate diagnoses and lastly to simulate a key oceanic processus in a controlled environment. Idealized test cases allow to verify properties of numerical schemes advection-diffusion of tracers, - upwelling, - lock exchange, - baroclinic vortex, - adiabatic motion along bathymetry, and to put into light numerical issues that remain undetected in realistic configurations - trajectory of barotropic vortex, - interaction current - topography. When complexity in the simulated dynamics grows up, - internal wave, - unstable baroclinic jet, the sharing of the same experimental designs by different existing models is useful to get a measure of the model sensitivity to numerical choices (Soufflet et al., 2016). Lastly, test cases help in understanding the submesoscale influence on the dynamics (Couvelard et al., 2015). Such a benchmark suite is an interesting

Climate Ocean Modeling on Parallel Computers

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, P.; Cheng, B. N.; Chao, Y.

1998-01-01

Ocean modeling plays an important role in both understanding the current climatic conditions and predicting future climate change. However, modeling the ocean circulation at various spatial and temporal scales is a very challenging computational task.

Age and area predict patterns of species richness in pumice rafts contingent on oceanic climatic zone encountered.

Science.gov (United States)

Velasquez, Eleanor; Bryan, Scott E; Ekins, Merrick; Cook, Alex G; Hurrey, Lucy; Firn, Jennifer

2018-05-01

The theory of island biogeography predicts that area and age explain species richness patterns (or alpha diversity) in insular habitats. Using a unique natural phenomenon, pumice rafting, we measured the influence of area, age, and oceanic climate on patterns of species richness. Pumice rafts are formed simultaneously when submarine volcanoes erupt, the pumice clasts breakup irregularly, forming irregularly shaped pumice stones which while floating through the ocean are colonized by marine biota. We analyze two eruption events and more than 5,000 pumice clasts collected from 29 sites and three climatic zones. Overall, the older and larger pumice clasts held more species. Pumice clasts arriving in tropical and subtropical climates showed this same trend, where in temperate locations species richness (alpha diversity) increased with area but decreased with age. Beta diversity analysis of the communities forming on pumice clasts that arrived in different climatic zones showed that tropical and subtropical clasts transported similar communities, while species composition on temperate clasts differed significantly from both tropical and subtropical arrivals. Using these thousands of insular habitats, we find strong evidence that area and age but also climatic conditions predict the fundamental dynamics of species richness colonizing pumice clasts.

Real-Time Ocean Prediction System for the East Coast of India

Science.gov (United States)

Warrior, H. V.

2016-02-01

The primary objective of the research work reported in this abstract was to develop a Realtime Environmental model for Ocean Dispersion and Impact (as part of an already in-place Decision Support System) for the purpose of radiological safety for the area along Kalpakkam (East Indian) coast. This system involves combining real-time ocean observations with numerical models of ocean processes to provide hindcasts, nowcasts and forecasts of currents, tides and waves. In this work we present the development of an Automated Coupled Atmospheric - Ocean Model (we call it IIT-CAOM) used to forecast the sea surface currents, sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity etc of the Bay of Bengal region under the influence of transient and unsteady atmospheric conditions. This method uses a coupling of Atmosphere and Ocean model. The models used here are the WRF for atmospheric simulations and POM for the ocean counterpart. It has a 3 km X 3 km resolution. This Coupled Model uses GFS (Global Forecast System) Data or FNL (Final Analyses) Data as initial conditions for jump-starting the atmospheric model. The Atmospheric model is run first thus extracting air temperature, wind speed and relative humidity. The heat flux subroutine computes the net heat flux, using above mentioned parameters data. The net heat flux feeds to the ocean model by simply adding net heat flux subroutine to the ocean model code without changing the model original structure. The online forecast of the IIT-CAOM is currently available in the web. The whole system has been automized and runs without any more manual support. The IIT-CAOM simulations have been carried out for Kalpakkam region, which is located on the East coast of India, about 70 km south of Chennai in Tamilnadu State and a three day forecast of sea surface currents, sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity, etc have been obtained.

A conceptual prediction model for seasonal drought processes using atmospheric and oceanic standardized anomalies and its application to four recent severe regional drought events in China

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Z.; LU, G.; He, H.; Wu, Z.; He, J.

2017-12-01

Reliable drought prediction is fundamental for seasonal water management. Considering that drought development is closely related to the spatio-temporal evolution of large-scale circulation patterns, we develop a conceptual prediction model of seasonal drought processes based on atmospheric/oceanic Standardized Anomalies (SA). It is essentially the synchronous stepwise regression relationship between 90-day-accumulated atmospheric/oceanic SA-based predictors and 3-month SPI updated daily (SPI3). It is forced with forecasted atmospheric and oceanic variables retrieved from seasonal climate forecast systems, and it can make seamless drought prediction for operational use after a year-to-year calibration. Simulation and prediction of four severe seasonal regional drought processes in China were forced with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis datasets and the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) operationally forecasted datasets, respectively. With the help of real-time correction for operational application, model application during four recent severe regional drought events in China revealed that the model is good at development prediction but weak in severity prediction. In addition to weakness in prediction of drought peak, the prediction of drought relief is possible to be predicted as drought recession. This weak performance may be associated with precipitation-causing weather patterns during drought relief. Based on initial virtual analysis on predicted 90-day prospective SPI3 curves, it shows that the 2009/2010 drought in Southwest China and 2014 drought in North China can be predicted and simulated well even for the prospective 1-75 day. In comparison, the prospective 1-45 day may be a feasible and acceptable lead time for simulation and prediction of the 2011 droughts in Southwest China and East China, after which the simulated and predicted developments clearly change.

Predicting the Response of Molluscs to the Impact of Ocean Acidification

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

John M. Wright

2013-04-01

Full Text Available Elevations in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2 are anticipated to acidify oceans because of fundamental changes in ocean chemistry created by CO2 absorption from the atmosphere. Over the next century, these elevated concentrations of atmospheric CO2 are expected to result in a reduction of the surface ocean waters from 8.1 to 7.7 units as well as a reduction in carbonate ion (CO32− concentration. The potential impact that this change in ocean chemistry will have on marine and estuarine organisms and ecosystems is a growing concern for scientists worldwide. While species-specific responses to ocean acidification are widespread across a number of marine taxa, molluscs are one animal phylum with many species which are particularly vulnerable across a number of life-history stages. Molluscs make up the second largest animal phylum on earth with 30,000 species and are a major producer of CaCO3. Molluscs also provide essential ecosystem services including habitat structure and food for benthic organisms (i.e., mussel and oyster beds, purification of water through filtration and are economically valuable. Even sub lethal impacts on molluscs due to climate changed oceans will have serious consequences for global protein sources and marine ecosystems.

Predicting the Response of Molluscs to the Impact of Ocean Acidification

Science.gov (United States)

Parker, Laura M.; Ross, Pauline M.; O’Connor, Wayne A.; Pörtner, Hans O.; Scanes, Elliot; Wright, John M.

2013-01-01

Elevations in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) are anticipated to acidify oceans because of fundamental changes in ocean chemistry created by CO2 absorption from the atmosphere. Over the next century, these elevated concentrations of atmospheric CO2 are expected to result in a reduction of the surface ocean waters from 8.1 to 7.7 units as well as a reduction in carbonate ion (CO32−) concentration. The potential impact that this change in ocean chemistry will have on marine and estuarine organisms and ecosystems is a growing concern for scientists worldwide. While species-specific responses to ocean acidification are widespread across a number of marine taxa, molluscs are one animal phylum with many species which are particularly vulnerable across a number of life-history stages. Molluscs make up the second largest animal phylum on earth with 30,000 species and are a major producer of CaCO3. Molluscs also provide essential ecosystem services including habitat structure and food for benthic organisms (i.e., mussel and oyster beds), purification of water through filtration and are economically valuable. Even sub lethal impacts on molluscs due to climate changed oceans will have serious consequences for global protein sources and marine ecosystems. PMID:24832802

Ocean Observations of Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Chambers, Don

2016-01-01

The ocean influences climate by storing and transporting large amounts of heat, freshwater, and carbon, and exchanging these properties with the atmosphere. About 93% of the excess heat energy stored by the earth over the last 50 years is found in the ocean. More than three quarters of the total exchange of water between the atmosphere and the earth's surface through evaporation and precipitation takes place over the oceans. The ocean contains 50 times more carbon than the atmosphere and is at present acting to slow the rate of climate change by absorbing one quarter of human emissions of carbon dioxide from fossil fuel burning, cement production, deforestation and other land use change.Here I summarize the observational evidence of change in the ocean, with an emphasis on basin- and global-scale changes relevant to climate. These include: changes in subsurface ocean temperature and heat content, evidence for regional changes in ocean salinity and their link to changes in evaporation and precipitation over the oceans, evidence of variability and change of ocean current patterns relevant to climate, observations of sea level change and predictions over the next century, and biogeochemical changes in the ocean, including ocean acidification.

An Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System for Sea Level Prediction Considering Tide-Generating Forces and Oceanic Thermal Expansion

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Li-Ching Lin Hsien-Kuo Chang

2008-01-01

Full Text Available The paper presents an adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system for predicting sea level considering tide-generating forces and oceanic thermal expansion assuming a model of sea level dependence on sea surface temperature. The proposed model named TGFT-FN (Tide-Generating Forces considering sea surface Temperature and Fuzzy Neuro-network system is applied to predict tides at five tide gauge sites located in Taiwan and has the root mean square of error of about 7.3 - 15.0 cm. The capability of TGFT-FN model is superior in sea level prediction than the previous TGF-NN model developed by Chang and Lin (2006 that considers the tide-generating forces only. The TGFT-FN model is employed to train and predict the sea level of Hua-Lien station, and is also appropriate for the same prediction at the tide gauge sites next to Hua-Lien station.

Magnetically-driven oceans on Jovian satellites

Science.gov (United States)

Gissinger, C.; Petitdemange, L.

2017-12-01

During the last decade, data from Galileo space missions have added strong support for the existence of subsurface liquid oceans on several moons of Jupiter. For instance, it is now commonly accepted that an electrically conducting fluid beneath the icy crust of Europa's surface may explain the variations of the induced field measured near the satellite. These observations have raised many questions regarding the size and the salinity of such subsurface ocean, or how and why the water remains liquid. In addition, the hydrodynamics of such oceans is mostly unknown. These questions are of primary importance since Europa is often considered as a good candidate for the presence of life beyond the Earth. Here, we present the first numerical modeling of the rapidly-rotating magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) flow generated in Europa's interior: due to Jupiter's rotation with respect to Europa, we show that the Lorentz force induced by the time-varying Jovian magnetic field is able to generate an oceanic flow of a few km/h. Our results are understood in the framework of a simple theoretical model and we obtain a scaling law for the prediction of the mean oceanic velocity and the total heating generated inside the ocean of Europa. Finally, by comparing our simulations to Galileo observations, we make predictions on both the thickness and the electrical conductivity of the ocean of different Jovian's satellites.

Investigating the Potential Impact of the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) Altimeter on Ocean Mesoscale Prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Carrier, M.; Ngodock, H.; Smith, S. R.; Souopgui, I.

2016-02-01

NASA's Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite, scheduled for launch in 2020, will provide sea surface height anomaly (SSHA) observations with a wider swath width and higher spatial resolution than current satellite altimeters. It is expected that this will help to further constrain ocean models in terms of the mesoscale circulation. In this work, this expectation is investigated by way of twin data assimilation experiments using the Navy Coastal Ocean Model Four Dimensional Variational (NCOM-4DVAR) data assimilation system using a weak constraint formulation. Here, a nature run is created from which SWOT observations are sampled, as well as along-track SSHA observations from simulated Jason-2 tracks. The simulated SWOT data has appropriate spatial coverage, resolution, and noise characteristics based on an observation-simulator program provided by the SWOT science team. The experiment is run for a three-month period during which the analysis is updated every 24 hours and each analysis is used to initialize a 96 hour forecast. The forecasts in each experiment are compared to the available nature run to determine the impact of the assimilated data. It is demonstrated here that the SWOT observations help to constrain the model mesoscale in a more consistent manner than traditional altimeter observations. The findings of this study suggest that data from SWOT may have a substantial impact on improving the ocean model analysis and forecast of mesoscale features and surface ocean transport.

How ocean acidification can benefit calcifiers.

Science.gov (United States)

Connell, Sean D; Doubleday, Zoë A; Hamlyn, Sarah B; Foster, Nicole R; Harley, Christopher D G; Helmuth, Brian; Kelaher, Brendan P; Nagelkerken, Ivan; Sarà, Gianluca; Russell, Bayden D

2017-02-06

Reduction in seawater pH due to rising levels of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) in the world's oceans is a major force set to shape the future of marine ecosystems and the ecological services they provide [1,2]. In particular, ocean acidification is predicted to have a detrimental effect on the physiology of calcifying organisms [3]. Yet, the indirect effects of ocean acidification on calcifying organisms, which may counter or exacerbate direct effects, is uncertain. Using volcanic CO 2 vents, we tested the indirect effects of ocean acidification on a calcifying herbivore (gastropod) within the natural complexity of an ecological system. Contrary to predictions, the abundance of this calcifier was greater at vent sites (with near-future CO 2 levels). Furthermore, translocation experiments demonstrated that ocean acidification did not drive increases in gastropod abundance directly, but indirectly as a function of increased habitat and food (algal biomass). We conclude that the effect of ocean acidification on algae (primary producers) can have a strong, indirect positive influence on the abundance of some calcifying herbivores, which can overwhelm any direct negative effects. This finding points to the need to understand ecological processes that buffer the negative effects of environmental change. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multiple stressors for oceanic primary production

KAUST Repository

Agusti, Susana

2015-12-15

Marine ecosystems are increasingly exposed to stress factors of anthropogenic origin that change their function, structure and services they deliver society. Climate change occurs simultaneously with other changes in the environment acting jointly in a context of global environmental change. For oceanic phytoplankton communities, the research conducted so far has identified stress factors associated with global change and their impact individually (warming, acidification, increased UVB radiation, pollutants). But when several stressors act simultaneously interactions and responses are not equal to the sum of individual impacts, but may have synergistic effects (the effects are multiplied) or antagonistic (cancel out the effects) that hinder predictions of the vulnerability of ecosystems to global change. Here we will examine the vulnerability of oceanic primary producers to the accumulation of different stressors associated with global change. The trend for autotrophic picoplankton to increase with temperature in the ocean has led to predictions that autotrophic picoplankton abundance will increase with warming. However, it is documented a trend towards a decline in productivity, due to declined autotroph biomass and production with warming and the associated stratification in the subtropical ocean. Models predicting an increase in abundance are in contradiction with the reported decrease in productivity in several oceanic areas, and associate oligotrophication. Here we perform a global study to analyze the relationships of autotrophic picoplankton with oceanic temperature, nutrients, underwater light and ultraviolet B (UVB) radiation, and productivity. We built a model to project the future changes of autotrophic picoplankton considering multiple environmental changes in future climate scenarios for the subtropical gyres. We considered increased water temperature, and associated changes in productivity and underwater light and UVB. The model show that warming and

Multiple stressors for oceanic primary production

KAUST Repository

Agusti, Susana; Llabré s, Moira; Lubiá n, Luis M.; Moreno-Ostos, Enrique; Estrada, Marta; Duarte, Carlos M.; Cerezo, Maria I.

2015-01-01

Marine ecosystems are increasingly exposed to stress factors of anthropogenic origin that change their function, structure and services they deliver society. Climate change occurs simultaneously with other changes in the environment acting jointly in a context of global environmental change. For oceanic phytoplankton communities, the research conducted so far has identified stress factors associated with global change and their impact individually (warming, acidification, increased UVB radiation, pollutants). But when several stressors act simultaneously interactions and responses are not equal to the sum of individual impacts, but may have synergistic effects (the effects are multiplied) or antagonistic (cancel out the effects) that hinder predictions of the vulnerability of ecosystems to global change. Here we will examine the vulnerability of oceanic primary producers to the accumulation of different stressors associated with global change. The trend for autotrophic picoplankton to increase with temperature in the ocean has led to predictions that autotrophic picoplankton abundance will increase with warming. However, it is documented a trend towards a decline in productivity, due to declined autotroph biomass and production with warming and the associated stratification in the subtropical ocean. Models predicting an increase in abundance are in contradiction with the reported decrease in productivity in several oceanic areas, and associate oligotrophication. Here we perform a global study to analyze the relationships of autotrophic picoplankton with oceanic temperature, nutrients, underwater light and ultraviolet B (UVB) radiation, and productivity. We built a model to project the future changes of autotrophic picoplankton considering multiple environmental changes in future climate scenarios for the subtropical gyres. We considered increased water temperature, and associated changes in productivity and underwater light and UVB. The model show that warming and

Prediction of the fate of radioactive material in the South Pacific Ocean using a global high-resolution ocean model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hazell, Douglas R.; England, Matthew H.

2003-01-01

We investigate the release of radioactive contaminants from Moruroa Atoll in a global high-resolution off-line model. The spread of tracer is studied in a series of simulations with varying release depths and time-scales, and into ocean velocity fields corresponding to long-term annual mean, seasonal, and interannually varying scenarios. In the instantaneous surface release scenarios we find that the incorporation of a seasonal cycle greatly influences tracer advection, with maximum concentrations still found within the French Polynesia region after 10 years. In contrast, the maximum trace is located in the southeast Pacific when long-term annual mean fields are used. This emphasizes the importance of the seasonal cycle in models of pollution dispersion on large scales. We further find that during an El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event reduced currents in the region of Moruroa Atoll result in increased concentrations of radioactive material in French Polynesia, as direct flushing from the source is reduced. In terms of the sensitivity to tracer release time-rates, we find that a gradual input results in maximum concentrations in the near vicinity of French Polynesia. This contrasts the instantaneous-release scenarios, which see maximum concentrations and tracer spread across much of the South Pacific Ocean. For example, in as little as seven years radioactive contamination can reach the east coast of Australia diluted by only a factor of 1000 of the initial concentration. A comparison of results is made with previous studies. Overall, we find much higher concentrations of radionuclides in the South Pacific than has previously been predicted using coarser-resolution models

Application of a Reduced Order Kalman Filter to Initialize a Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Model: Impact on the Prediction of El Nino

Science.gov (United States)

Ballabrera-Poy, Joaquim; Busalacchi, Antonio J.; Murtugudde, Ragu

2000-01-01

A reduced order Kalman Filter, based on a simplification of the Singular Evolutive Extended Kalman (SEEK) filter equations, is used to assimilate observed fields of the surface wind stress, sea surface temperature and sea level into the nonlinear coupled ocean-atmosphere model. The SEEK filter projects the Kalman Filter equations onto a subspace defined by the eigenvalue decomposition of the error forecast matrix, allowing its application to high dimensional systems. The Zebiak and Cane model couples a linear reduced gravity ocean model with a single vertical mode atmospheric model of Zebiak. The compatibility between the simplified physics of the model and each observed variable is studied separately and together. The results show the ability of the model to represent the simultaneous value of the wind stress, SST and sea level, when the fields are limited to the latitude band 10 deg S - 10 deg N. In this first application of the Kalman Filter to a coupled ocean-atmosphere prediction model, the sea level fields are assimilated in terms of the Kelvin and Rossby modes of the thermocline depth anomaly. An estimation of the error of these modes is derived from the projection of an estimation of the sea level error over such modes. This method gives a value of 12 for the error of the Kelvin amplitude, and 6 m of error for the Rossby component of the thermocline depth. The ability of the method to reconstruct the state of the equatorial Pacific and predict its time evolution is demonstrated. The method is shown to be quite robust for predictions I up to six months, and able to predict the onset of the 1997 warm event fifteen months before its occurrence.

Ocean deoxygenation in a warming world.

Science.gov (United States)

Keeling, Ralph E; Körtzinger, Arne; Gruber, Nicolas

2010-01-01

Ocean warming and increased stratification of the upper ocean caused by global climate change will likely lead to declines in dissolved O2 in the ocean interior (ocean deoxygenation) with implications for ocean productivity, nutrient cycling, carbon cycling, and marine habitat. Ocean models predict declines of 1 to 7% in the global ocean O2 inventory over the next century, with declines continuing for a thousand years or more into the future. An important consequence may be an expansion in the area and volume of so-called oxygen minimum zones, where O2 levels are too low to support many macrofauna and profound changes in biogeochemical cycling occur. Significant deoxygenation has occurred over the past 50 years in the North Pacific and tropical oceans, suggesting larger changes are looming. The potential for larger O2 declines in the future suggests the need for an improved observing system for tracking ocean 02 changes.

Decadal predictions of Southern Ocean sea ice : testing different initialization methods with an Earth-system Model of Intermediate Complexity

Science.gov (United States)

Zunz, Violette; Goosse, Hugues; Dubinkina, Svetlana

2013-04-01

The sea ice extent in the Southern Ocean has increased since 1979 but the causes of this expansion have not been firmly identified. In particular, the contribution of internal variability and external forcing to this positive trend has not been fully established. In this region, the lack of observations and the overestimation of internal variability of the sea ice by contemporary General Circulation Models (GCMs) make it difficult to understand the behaviour of the sea ice. Nevertheless, if its evolution is governed by the internal variability of the system and if this internal variability is in some way predictable, a suitable initialization method should lead to simulations results that better fit the reality. Current GCMs decadal predictions are generally initialized through a nudging towards some observed fields. This relatively simple method does not seem to be appropriated to the initialization of sea ice in the Southern Ocean. The present study aims at identifying an initialization method that could improve the quality of the predictions of Southern Ocean sea ice at decadal timescales. We use LOVECLIM, an Earth-system Model of Intermediate Complexity that allows us to perform, within a reasonable computational time, the large amount of simulations required to test systematically different initialization procedures. These involve three data assimilation methods: a nudging, a particle filter and an efficient particle filter. In a first step, simulations are performed in an idealized framework, i.e. data from a reference simulation of LOVECLIM are used instead of observations, herein after called pseudo-observations. In this configuration, the internal variability of the model obviously agrees with the one of the pseudo-observations. This allows us to get rid of the issues related to the overestimation of the internal variability by models compared to the observed one. This way, we can work out a suitable methodology to assess the efficiency of the

Empirical Algorithms to Predict pH and Aragonite Saturation State on SOCCOM Biogeochemical Argo Floats in the Pacific Sector of the Southern Ocean

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, N. L.; Juranek, L. W.; Feely, R. A.; Johnson, K. S.; Russell, J. L.

2016-02-01

The Southern Ocean plays a major role in the global uptake, transport, and storage of both heat and carbon, yet it remains one of the least-sampled regions of the ocean. The Southern Ocean Carbon and Climate Observations and Modeling (SOCCOM) project aims to fill the observational gaps by deploying over 200 autonomous profiling floats in the Southern Ocean over the next several years. Initial float deployments have greatly expanded our observational capability to include wintertime measurements as well as under-ice measurements, and many of these floats include novel biogeochemical sensors (pH, nitrate, oxygen). Here we present empirical algorithms that can be used to predict pH and ΩAragonite from other float-measured parameters (temperature, salinity, pressure, nitrate, oxygen). These algorithms were trained using bottle measurements from high-quality repeat hydrographic GO-SHIP cruises. We obtained R2 values of 0.98 (pH) and 0.99 (ΩAragonite) and RMS errors of 0.007 (pH) and 0.052 (ΩAragonite) for data between 100-1500 m. These algorithms will allow us to both validate pH data from these sensors, as well as predict ΩAragonite and pH on floats that do not have pH sensors. Here we present estimated pH and ΩAragonite over 20 months of deployment for several SOCCOM floats in the Pacific Sector of the Southern Ocean. The results show seasonal ranges in surface pH and ΩAragonite of 0.05 and 0.1, respectively.

Coral mass spawning predicted by rapid seasonal rise in ocean temperature

KAUST Repository

Keith, Sally A.

2016-05-11

Coral spawning times have been linked to multiple environmental factors; however, to what extent these factors act as generalized cues across multiple species and large spatial scales is unknown. We used a unique dataset of coral spawning from 34 reefs in the Indian and Pacific Oceans to test if month of spawning and peak spawning month in assemblages of Acropora spp. can be predicted by sea surface temperature (SST), photosynthetically available radiation, wind speed, current speed, rainfall or sunset time. Contrary to the classic view that high mean SST initiates coral spawning, we found rapid increases in SST to be the best predictor in both cases (month of spawning: R2 = 0.73, peak: R2 = 0.62). Our findings suggest that a rapid increase in SST provides the dominant proximate cue for coral mass spawning over large geographical scales. We hypothesize that coral spawning is ultimately timed to ensure optimal fertilization success.

Coral mass spawning predicted by rapid seasonal rise in ocean temperature

KAUST Repository

Keith, Sally A.; Maynard, Jeffrey A.; Edwards, Alasdair J.; Guest, James R.; Bauman, Andrew G.; van Hooidonk, Ruben; Heron, Scott F.; Berumen, Michael L.; Bouwmeester, Jessica; Piromvaragorn, Srisakul; Rahbek, Carsten; Baird, Andrew H.

2016-01-01

Coral spawning times have been linked to multiple environmental factors; however, to what extent these factors act as generalized cues across multiple species and large spatial scales is unknown. We used a unique dataset of coral spawning from 34 reefs in the Indian and Pacific Oceans to test if month of spawning and peak spawning month in assemblages of Acropora spp. can be predicted by sea surface temperature (SST), photosynthetically available radiation, wind speed, current speed, rainfall or sunset time. Contrary to the classic view that high mean SST initiates coral spawning, we found rapid increases in SST to be the best predictor in both cases (month of spawning: R2 = 0.73, peak: R2 = 0.62). Our findings suggest that a rapid increase in SST provides the dominant proximate cue for coral mass spawning over large geographical scales. We hypothesize that coral spawning is ultimately timed to ensure optimal fertilization success.

Bet hedging in a warming ocean: predictability of maternal environment shapes offspring size variation in marine sticklebacks.

Science.gov (United States)

Shama, Lisa N S

2015-12-01

Bet hedging at reproduction is expected to evolve when mothers are exposed to unpredictable cues for future environmental conditions, whereas transgenerational plasticity (TGP) should be favoured when cues reliably predict the environment offspring will experience. Since climate predictions forecast an increase in both temperature and climate variability, both TGP and bet hedging are likely to become important strategies to mediate climate change effects. Here, the potential to produce variably sized offspring in both warming and unpredictable environments was tested by investigating whether stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) mothers adjusted mean offspring size and within-clutch variation in offspring size in response to experimental manipulation of maternal thermal environment and predictability (alternating between ambient and elevated water temperatures). Reproductive output traits of F1 females were influenced by both temperature and environmental predictability. Mothers that developed at ambient temperature (17 °C) produced larger, but fewer eggs than mothers that developed at elevated temperature (21 °C), implying selection for different-sized offspring in different environments. Mothers in unpredictable environments had smaller mean egg sizes and tended to have greater within-female egg size variability, especially at 21 °C, suggesting that mothers may have dynamically modified the variance in offspring size to spread the risk of incorrectly predicting future environmental conditions. Both TGP and diversification influenced F2 offspring body size. F2 offspring reared at 21 °C had larger mean body sizes if their mother developed at 21 °C, but this TGP benefit was not present for offspring of 17 °C mothers reared at 17 °C, indicating that maternal TGP will be highly relevant for ocean warming scenarios in this system. Offspring of variable environment mothers were smaller but more variable in size than offspring from constant environment

The impact on ocean ecosystems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Seymour, A.H.

1982-01-01

A nuclear war would have less impact on ocean ecosystems than on terrestrial systems. But damage to coastal regions and estuaries might be substantial. This chapter discusses the distribution, effects, and hazards of fallout radionuclides in the ocean, and attempts to assess the impact on ocean ecosystems of dust particles in the atmosphere, ozone depletion, and temperature change following a nuclear war. The information offers some insight into the impact of such a war, but does not provide definitive predictions. Two other consequences, however, do have the potential for devastating effects upon marine ecosystems. It has been predicted that a 100-fold reduction in solar light intensity at the earth's surface due to particles in the atmosphere is possible; this would result in death to most of the phytoplankton and herbivorous zooplankton in more than half of the oceans of the Northern Hemisphere, and under some circumstances, depletion of ozone in the stratosphere by NOsub(X) could increase UV radiation at the earth's surface, the magnitude of the change being sufficient to seriously reduce the populations of organisms at the base of the food web. Temperature changes would be of little consequence. (U.K.)

Using the Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS to improve the sea surface temperature predictions of the MERCATOR Ocean System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pedro Costa

2012-09-01

Full Text Available Global models are generally capable of reproducing the observed trends in the globally averaged sea surface temperature (SST. However, the global models do not perform as well on regional scales. Here, we present an ocean forecast system based on the Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS, the boundary conditions come from the MERCATOR ocean system for the North Atlantic (1/6° horizontal resolution. The system covers the region of the northwestern Iberian Peninsula with a horizontal resolution of 1/36°, forced with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF and the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT. The ocean model results from the regional ocean model are validated using real-time SST and observations from the MeteoGalicia, INTECMAR and Puertos Del Estado real-time observational networks. The validation results reveal that over a one-year period the mean absolute error of the SST is less than 1°C, and several sources of measured data reveal that the errors decrease near the coast. This improvement is related to the inclusion of local forcing not present in the boundary condition model.

Individual and population-level responses to ocean acidification.

Science.gov (United States)

Harvey, Ben P; McKeown, Niall J; Rastrick, Samuel P S; Bertolini, Camilla; Foggo, Andy; Graham, Helen; Hall-Spencer, Jason M; Milazzo, Marco; Shaw, Paul W; Small, Daniel P; Moore, Pippa J

2016-01-29

Ocean acidification is predicted to have detrimental effects on many marine organisms and ecological processes. Despite growing evidence for direct impacts on specific species, few studies have simultaneously considered the effects of ocean acidification on individuals (e.g. consequences for energy budgets and resource partitioning) and population level demographic processes. Here we show that ocean acidification increases energetic demands on gastropods resulting in altered energy allocation, i.e. reduced shell size but increased body mass. When scaled up to the population level, long-term exposure to ocean acidification altered population demography, with evidence of a reduction in the proportion of females in the population and genetic signatures of increased variance in reproductive success among individuals. Such increased variance enhances levels of short-term genetic drift which is predicted to inhibit adaptation. Our study indicates that even against a background of high gene flow, ocean acidification is driving individual- and population-level changes that will impact eco-evolutionary trajectories.

Ocean water cycle: its recent amplification and impact on ocean circulation

Science.gov (United States)

Vinogradova, Nadya

2016-04-01

Oceans are the largest reservoir of the world's water supply, accounting for 97% of the Earth's water and supplying more than 75% of the evaporated and precipitated water in the global water cycle. Therefore, in order to predict the future of the global hydrological cycle, it is essential to understand the changes in its largest component, which is the flux of freshwater over the oceans. Here we examine the change in the ocean water cycle and the ocean's response to such changes that were happening during the last two decades. The analysis is based on a data-constrained ocean state estimate that synthesizes all of the information available in the surface fluxes, winds, observations of sea level, temperature, salinity, geoid, etc., as well as in the physical constraints, dynamics, and conservation statements that are embedded in the equations of the MIT general circulation model. Closeness to observations and dynamical consistency of the solution ensures a physically realistic correspondence between the atmospheric forcing and oceanic fluxes, including the ocean's response to freshwater input. The results show a robust pattern of change in the ocean water cycle in the last twenty years. The pattern of changes indicates a general tendency of drying of the subtropics, and wetting in the tropics and mid-to-high latitudes, following the "rich get richer and the poor get poorer" paradigm in many ocean regions. Using a closed property budget analysis, we then investigate the changes in the oceanic state (salinity, temperature, sea level) during the same twenty-year period. The results are discussed in terms of the origin of surface signatures, and differentiated between those that are attributed to short-term natural variability and those that result from an intensified hydrological cycle due to warming climate.

The Role of the Indian Ocean Sector for Prediction of the Coupled Indo-Pacific System: Impact of Atmospheric Coupling

Science.gov (United States)

Hackert, E. C.; Busalacchi, A. J.; Carton, J.; Murtugudde, R.; Arkin, P.; Evans, M. N.

2017-01-01

Indian Ocean (IO) dynamics impact ENSO predictability by influencing wind and precipitation anomalies in the Pacific. To test if the upstream influence of the IO improves ENSO validation statistics, a combination of forced ocean, atmosphere, and coupled models are utilized. In one experiment, the full tropical Indo-Pacific region atmosphere is forced by observed interannual SST anomalies. In the other, the IO is forced by climatological SST. Differences between these two forced atmospheric model experiments spotlight a much richer wind response pattern in the Pacific than previous studies that used idealized forcing and simple linear atmospheric models. Weak westerlies are found near the equator similar to earlier literature. However, at initialization strong easterlies between 30 deg. S to 10 deg. S and 0 deg. N to 25 deg. N and equatorial convergence of the meridional winds across the entire Pacific are unique findings from this paper. The large-scale equatorial divergence west of the dateline and northeasterly-to-northwesterly cross-equatorial flow converging on the equator east of the dateline in the Pacific are generated from interannual IO SST coupling. In addition, off-equatorial downwelling curl impacts large-scale oceanic waves (i.e., Rossby waves reflect as western boundary Kelvin waves). After 3 months, these downwelling equatorial Kelvin waves propagate across the Pacific and strengthen the NINO3 SST. Eventually Bjerknes feedbacks take hold in the eastern Pacific which allows this warm anomaly to grow. Coupled forecasts for NINO3 SST anomalies for 1993-2014 demonstrate that including interannual IO forcing significantly improves predictions for 3-9 month lead times.

The role of the Indian Ocean sector for prediction of the coupled Indo-Pacific system: Impact of atmospheric coupling

Science.gov (United States)

Hackert, E. C.; Busalacchi, A. J.; Carton, J.; Murtugudde, R.; Arkin, P.; Evans, M. N.

2017-04-01

Indian Ocean (IO) dynamics impact ENSO predictability by influencing wind and precipitation anomalies in the Pacific. To test if the upstream influence of the IO improves ENSO validation statistics, a combination of forced ocean, atmosphere, and coupled models are utilized. In one experiment, the full tropical Indo-Pacific region atmosphere is forced by observed interannual SST anomalies. In the other, the IO is forced by climatological SST. Differences between these two forced atmospheric model experiments spotlight a much richer wind response pattern in the Pacific than previous studies that used idealized forcing and simple linear atmospheric models. Weak westerlies are found near the equator similar to earlier literature. However, at initialization strong easterlies between 30°S-10°S and 0°N-25°N and equatorial convergence of the meridional winds across the entire Pacific are unique findings from this paper. The large-scale equatorial divergence west of the dateline and northeasterly-to-northwesterly cross-equatorial flow converging on the equator east of the dateline in the Pacific are generated from interannual IO SST coupling. In addition, off-equatorial downwelling curl impacts large-scale oceanic waves (i.e., Rossby waves reflect as western boundary Kelvin waves). After 3 months, these downwelling equatorial Kelvin waves propagate across the Pacific and strengthen the NINO3 SST. Eventually Bjerknes feedbacks take hold in the eastern Pacific which allows this warm anomaly to grow. Coupled forecasts for NINO3 SST anomalies for 1993-2014 demonstrate that including interannual IO forcing significantly improves predictions for 3-9 month lead times.

Ocean warming ameliorates the negative effects of ocean acidification on Paracentrotus lividus larval development and settlement.

Science.gov (United States)

García, Eliseba; Clemente, Sabrina; Hernández, José Carlos

2015-09-01

Ocean warming and acidification both impact marine ecosystems. All organisms have a limited body temperature range, outside of which they become functionally constrained. Beyond the absolute extremes of this range, they cannot survive. It is hypothesized that some stressors can present effects that interact with other environmental variables, such as ocean acidification (OA) that have the potential to narrow the thermal range where marine species are functional. An organism's response to ocean acidification can therefore be highly dependent on thermal conditions. This study evaluated the combined effects of predicted ocean warming conditions and acidification, on survival, development, and settlement, of the sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus. Nine combined treatments of temperature (19.0, 20.5 and 22.5 °C) and pH (8.1, 7.7 and 7.4 units) were carried out. All of the conditions tested were either within the current natural ranges of seawater pH and temperature or are within the ranges that have been predicted for the end of the century, in the sampling region (Canary Islands). Our results indicated that the negative effects of low pH on P. lividus larval development and settlement will be mitigated by a rise in seawater temperature, up to a thermotolerance threshold. Larval development and settlement performance of the sea urchin P. lividus was enhanced by a slight increase in temperature, even under lowered pH conditions. However, the species did show negative responses to the levels of ocean warming and acidification that have been predicted for the turn of the century. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Numerical Modeling of Ocean Circulation

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, Robert N.

2007-01-01

The modelling of ocean circulation is important not only for its own sake, but also in terms of the prediction of weather patterns and the effects of climate change. This book introduces the basic computational techniques necessary for all models of the ocean and atmosphere, and the conditions they must satisfy. It describes the workings of ocean models, the problems that must be solved in their construction, and how to evaluate computational results. Major emphasis is placed on examining ocean models critically, and determining what they do well and what they do poorly. Numerical analysis is introduced as needed, and exercises are included to illustrate major points. Developed from notes for a course taught in physical oceanography at the College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences at Oregon State University, this book is ideal for graduate students of oceanography, geophysics, climatology and atmospheric science, and researchers in oceanography and atmospheric science. Features examples and critical examination of ocean modelling and results Demonstrates the strengths and weaknesses of different approaches Includes exercises to illustrate major points and supplement mathematical and physical details

Annual cycle of the upper-ocean circulation and properties in the ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

ocean dynamics and its influence on ocean properties in the tropical western Indian Ocean. Surface winds and heat fluxes from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis forced the model (Model_NCEP) with initial and ...

Climate change impact on future ocean acidification

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McNeil, Ben

2007-01-01

Full text: Elevated atmospheric C02 levels and associated uptake by the ocean is changing its carbon chemistry, leading to an acidification. The implications of future ocean acidification on the marine ecosystem are unclear but seemingly detrimental particularly to those organisms and phytoplankton that secrete calcium carbonate (like corals). Here we present new results from the Australian CSIRO General Circulation Model that predicts the changing nature of oceanic carbon chemistry in response to future climate change feedbacks (circulation, temperature and biological). We will discuss the implications of future ocean acidification and the potential implications on Australia's marine ecosystems

New perspectives in ocean acidification research: editor's introduction to the special feature on ocean acidification.

Science.gov (United States)

Munday, Philip L

2017-09-01

Ocean acidification, caused by the uptake of additional carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from the atmosphere, will have far-reaching impacts on marine ecosystems (Gattuso & Hansson 2011 Ocean acidification Oxford University Press). The predicted changes in ocean chemistry will affect whole biological communities and will occur within the context of global warming and other anthropogenic stressors; yet much of the biological research conducted to date has tested the short-term responses of single species to ocean acidification conditions alone. While an important starting point, these studies may have limited predictive power because they do not account for possible interactive effects of multiple climate change drivers or for ecological interactions with other species. Furthermore, few studies have considered variation in responses among populations or the evolutionary potential within populations. Therefore, our knowledge about the potential for marine organisms to adapt to ocean acidification is extremely limited. In 2015, two of the pioneers in the field, Ulf Riebesell and Jean-Pierre Gattuso, noted that to move forward as a field of study, future research needed to address critical knowledge gaps in three major areas: (i) multiple environmental drivers, (ii) ecological interactions and (iii) acclimation and adaptation (Riebesell and Gattuso 2015 Nat. Clim. Change 5 , 12-14 (doi:10.1038/nclimate2456)). In May 2016, more than 350 researchers, students and stakeholders met at the 4th International Symposium on the Ocean in a High-CO 2 World in Hobart, Tasmania, to discuss the latest advances in understanding ocean acidification and its biological consequences. Many of the papers presented at the symposium reflected this shift in focus from short-term, single species and single stressor experiments towards multi-stressor and multispecies experiments that address knowledge gaps about the ecological impacts of ocean acidification on marine communities. The nine papers in this

Decadal prediction skill in the ocean with surface nudging in the IPSL-CM5A-LR climate model

OpenAIRE

Mignot , Juliette; García-Serrano , Javier; Swingedouw , Didier; Germe , Agathe; Nguyen , Sébastien; Ortega , Pablo; Guilyardi , Éric; Ray , Sulagna

2016-01-01

International audience; Two decadal prediction ensembles, based on the same climate model (IPSL-CM5A-LR) and the same surface nudging initialization strategy are analyzed and compared with a focus on upper-ocean variables in different regions of the globe. One ensemble consists of 3-member hindcasts launched every year since 1961 while the other ensemble benefits from 9 members but with start dates only every 5 years. Analysis includes anomaly correlation coefficients and root mean square err...

Taking Poseidon's Measure from Space: Advances in our Understanding of the Ocean

Science.gov (United States)

Avery, S. K.

2017-12-01

In many ways the ocean defines our planet and makes it livable. It provides marine resources and ecosystem services that are critical to a sustainable society. Today we understand that there is a growing need to predict, manage, and adapt to changes on our planet - changes that occur not only in the atmosphere but also in the ocean. Over the last 40 years remarkable advances in measuring key ocean quantities have been made - through the development of new satellite technologies and successful missions as well as through in-situ observing systems enabled by advances in robotics, communications, navigation, and sensors. Ocean science (and atmospheric science) is a science of numbers, imaging, and numerical models. Predictability of the ocean is tied to the scale of variability in space and time. Satellite observations have spectacularly showed us the incredible structure and variability of the ocean. It has been the combination of satellites and in-situ sensors that have allowed us to advance understanding and prediction. This presentation will highlight some of the key scientific advances that have been enabled by satellites.

Modeling the ocean effect of geomagnetic storms

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Olsen, Nils; Kuvshinov, A.

2004-01-01

At coastal sites, geomagnetic variations for periods shorter than a few days are strongly distorted by the conductivity of the nearby sea-water. This phenomena, known as the ocean (or coast) effect, is strongest in the magnetic vertical component. We demonstrate the ability to predict the ocean...... if the oceans are considered. Our analysis also indicates a significant local time asymmetry (i.e., contributions from spherical harmonics other than P-I(0)), especially during the main phase of the storm....

Ocean tides for satellite geodesy

Science.gov (United States)

Dickman, S. R.

1990-01-01

Spherical harmonic tidal solutions have been obtained at the frequencies of the 32 largest luni-solar tides using prior theory of the author. That theory was developed for turbulent, nonglobal, self-gravitating, and loading oceans possessing realistic bathymetry and linearized bottom friction; the oceans satisfy no-flow boundary conditions at coastlines. In this theory the eddy viscosity and bottom drag coefficients are treated as spatially uniform. Comparison of the predicted degree-2 components of the Mf, P1, and M2 tides with those from numerical and satellite-based tide models allows the ocean friction parameters to be estimated at long and short periods. Using the 32 tide solutions, the frequency dependence of tidal admittance is investigated, and the validity of sideband tide models used in satellite orbit analysis is examined. The implications of admittance variability for oceanic resonances are also explored.

Indian Ocean Dipole and El Niño/Southern Oscillation impacts on regional chlorophyll anomalies in the Indian Ocean

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. C. Currie

2013-10-01

Full Text Available The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO are independent climate modes, which frequently co-occur, driving significant interannual changes within the Indian Ocean. We use a four-decade hindcast from a coupled biophysical ocean general circulation model, to disentangle patterns of chlorophyll anomalies driven by these two climate modes. Comparisons with remotely sensed records show that the simulation competently reproduces the chlorophyll seasonal cycle, as well as open-ocean anomalies during the 1997/1998 ENSO and IOD event. Results suggest that anomalous surface and euphotic-layer chlorophyll blooms in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean in fall, and southern Bay of Bengal in winter, are primarily related to IOD forcing. A negative influence of IOD on chlorophyll concentrations is shown in a region around the southern tip of India in fall. IOD also depresses depth-integrated chlorophyll in the 5–10° S thermocline ridge region, yet the signal is negligible in surface chlorophyll. The only investigated region where ENSO has a greater influence on chlorophyll than does IOD, is in the Somalia upwelling region, where it causes a decrease in fall and winter chlorophyll by reducing local upwelling winds. Yet unlike most other regions examined, the combined explanatory power of IOD and ENSO in predicting depth-integrated chlorophyll anomalies is relatively low in this region, suggestive that other drivers are important there. We show that the chlorophyll impact of climate indices is frequently asymmetric, with a general tendency for larger positive than negative chlorophyll anomalies. Our results suggest that ENSO and IOD cause significant and predictable regional re-organisation of chlorophyll via their influence on near-surface oceanography. Resolving the details of these effects should improve our understanding, and eventually gain predictability, of interannual changes in Indian Ocean productivity, fisheries

NOAA's Role in Sustaining Global Ocean Observations: Future Plans for OAR's Ocean Observing and Monitoring Division

Science.gov (United States)

Todd, James; Legler, David; Piotrowicz, Stephen; Raymond, Megan; Smith, Emily; Tedesco, Kathy; Thurston, Sidney

2017-04-01

The Ocean Observing and Monitoring Division (OOMD, formerly the Climate Observation Division) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Program Office provides long-term, high-quality global observations, climate information and products for researchers, forecasters, assessments and other users of environmental information. In this context, OOMD-supported activities serve a foundational role in an enterprise that aims to advance 1) scientific understanding, 2) monitoring and prediction of climate and 3) understanding of potential impacts to enable a climate resilient society. Leveraging approximately 50% of the Global Ocean Observing System, OOMD employs an internationally-coordinated, multi-institution global strategy that brings together data from multiple platforms including surface drifting buoys, Argo profiling floats, flux/transport moorings (RAMA, PIRATA, OceanSITES), GLOSS tide gauges, SOOP-XBT and SOOP-CO2, ocean gliders and repeat hydrographic sections (GO-SHIP). OOMD also engages in outreach, education and capacity development activities to deliver training on the social-economic applications of ocean data. This presentation will highlight recent activities and plans for 2017 and beyond.

Evidences of Seasonal Variation in Altimetry Derived Ocean Tides in the Subarctic Ocean

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hok Sum Fok

2013-01-01

Full Text Available While the barotropic ocean tides in the deep ocean are well modeled to ~2 cm RMS, accurate tidal prediction in the ice-covered polar oceans and near coastal regions remain elusive. A notable reason is that the most accurate satellite altimeters (TOPEX/Jason-1/-2, whose orbits are optimized to minimize the tidal aliasing effect, have spatial coverage limited to largely outside of the polar ocean. Here, we update the assessment of tidal models using 7 contemporary global and regional models, and show that the altimetry sea surface height (SSH anomaly residual after tidal correction is 9 - 12 cm RMS in the Subarctic Ocean. We then address the hypothesis whether plausible evidence of variable tidal signals exist in the seasonally ice-covered Subarctic Ocean, where the sea ice cover is undergoing rapid thinning. We first found a difference in variance reduction for multi-mission altimeter SSH anomaly residuals during the summer and winter seasons, with the residual during winter season 15 - 30% larger than that during the summer season. Experimental seasonal ocean tide solutions derived from satellite altimetry reveals that the recovered winter and summer tidal constituents generally differ by a few cm in amplitude and tens of degrees in phase. Relatively larger seasonal tidal patterns, in particular for M2, S2 and K1 tides, have been identified in the Chukchi Sea study region near eastern Siberia, coincident with the seasonal presence and movement of sea ice.

Monitoring and assessment of ocean acidification in the Arctic Ocean-A scoping paper

Science.gov (United States)

Robbins, Lisa L.; Yates, Kimberly K.; Feely, Richard; Fabry, Victoria

2010-01-01

Carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere is absorbed at the ocean surface by reacting with seawater to form a weak, naturally occurring acid called carbonic acid. As atmospheric carbon dioxide increases, the concentration of carbonic acid in seawater also increases, causing a decrease in ocean pH and carbonate mineral saturation states, a process known as ocean acidification. The oceans have absorbed approximately 525 billion tons of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, or about one-quarter to one-third of the anthropogenic carbon emissions released since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. Global surveys of ocean chemistry have revealed that seawater pH has decreased by about 0.1 units (from a pH of 8.2 to 8.1) since the 1700s due to absorption of carbon dioxide (Raven and others, 2005). Modeling studies, based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) CO2 emission scenarios, predict that atmospheric carbon dioxide levels could reach more than 500 parts per million (ppm) by the middle of this century and 800 ppm by the year 2100, causing an additional decrease in surface water pH of 0.3 pH units. Ocean acidification is a global threat and is already having profound and deleterious effects on the geology, biology, chemistry, and socioeconomic resources of coastal and marine habitats. The polar and sub-polar seas have been identified as the bellwethers for global ocean acidification.

Collaborative Project. Understanding the effects of tides and eddies on the ocean dynamics, sea ice cover and decadal/centennial climate prediction using the Regional Arctic Climate Model (RACM)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hutchings, Jennifer [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States); Joseph, Renu [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States)

2013-09-14

The goal of this project is to develop an eddy resolving ocean model (POP) with tides coupled to a sea ice model (CICE) within the Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) to investigate the importance of ocean tides and mesoscale eddies in arctic climate simulations and quantify biases associated with these processes and how their relative contribution may improve decadal to centennial arctic climate predictions. Ocean, sea ice and coupled arctic climate response to these small scale processes will be evaluated with regard to their influence on mass, momentum and property exchange between oceans, shelf-basin, ice-ocean, and ocean-atmosphere. The project will facilitate the future routine inclusion of polar tides and eddies in Earth System Models when computing power allows. As such, the proposed research addresses the science in support of the BER’s Climate and Environmental Sciences Division Long Term Measure as it will improve the ocean and sea ice model components as well as the fully coupled RASM and Community Earth System Model (CESM) and it will make them more accurate and computationally efficient.

Are Hydrostatic Models Still Capable of Simulating Oceanic Fronts

Science.gov (United States)

2016-11-10

Hydrostatic Models Still Capable of Simulating Oceanic Fronts Yalin Fan Zhitao Yu Ocean Dynamics and Prediction Branch Oceanography Division FengYan Shi...OF PAGES 17. LIMITATION OF ABSTRACT Are Hydrostatic Models Still Capable of Simulating Oceanic Fronts? Yalin Fan, Zhitao Yu, and, Fengyan Shi1 Naval...mixed layer and thermocline simulations as well as large scale circulations. Numerical experiments are conducted using hydrostatic (HY) and

Ecological niches of open ocean phytoplankton taxa

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Brun, Philipp Georg; Vogt, Meike; Payne, Mark

2015-01-01

We characterize the realized ecological niches of 133 phytoplankton taxa in the open ocean based on observations from the MAREDAT initiative and a statistical species distribution model (MaxEnt). The models find that the physical conditions (mixed layer depth, temperature, light) govern large...... conditions in the open ocean. Our estimates of the realized niches roughly match the predictions of Reynolds' C-S-R model for the global ocean, namely that taxa classified as nutrient stress tolerant have niches at lower nutrient and higher irradiance conditions than light stress tolerant taxa. Yet...

Ups and Downs in the Ocean: Effects of Biofouling on Vertical Transport of Microplastics.

Science.gov (United States)

Kooi, Merel; Nes, Egbert H van; Scheffer, Marten; Koelmans, Albert A

2017-07-18

Recent studies suggest size-selective removal of small plastic particles from the ocean surface, an observation that remains unexplained. We studied one of the hypotheses regarding this size-selective removal: the formation of a biofilm on the microplastics (biofouling). We developed the first theoretical model that is capable of simulating the effect of biofouling on the fate of microplastic. The model is based on settling, biofilm growth, and ocean depth profiles for light, water density, temperature, salinity, and viscosity. Using realistic parameters, the model simulates the vertical transport of small microplastic particles over time, and predicts that the particles either float, sink to the ocean floor, or oscillate vertically, depending on the size and density of the particle. The predicted size-dependent vertical movement of microplastic particles results in a maximum concentration at intermediate depths. Consequently, relatively low abundances of small particles are predicted at the ocean surface, while at the same time these small particles may never reach the ocean floor. Our results hint at the fate of "lost" plastic in the ocean, and provide a start for predicting risks of exposure to microplastics for potentially vulnerable species living at these depths.

Statistical downscaling of IPCC sea surface wind and wind energy predictions for U.S. east coastal ocean, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Yao, Zhigang; Xue, Zuo; He, Ruoying; Bao, Xianwen; Song, Jun

2016-08-01

A multivariate statistical downscaling method is developed to produce regional, high-resolution, coastal surface wind fields based on the IPCC global model predictions for the U.S. east coastal ocean, the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), and the Caribbean Sea. The statistical relationship is built upon linear regressions between the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) spaces of a cross- calibrated, multi-platform, multi-instrument ocean surface wind velocity dataset (predictand) and the global NCEP wind reanalysis (predictor) over a 10 year period from 2000 to 2009. The statistical relationship is validated before applications and its effectiveness is confirmed by the good agreement between downscaled wind fields based on the NCEP reanalysis and in-situ surface wind measured at 16 National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) buoys in the U.S. east coastal ocean and the GOM during 1992-1999. The predictand-predictor relationship is applied to IPCC GFDL model output (2.0°×2.5°) of downscaled coastal wind at 0.25°×0.25° resolution. The temporal and spatial variability of future predicted wind speeds and wind energy potential over the study region are further quantified. It is shown that wind speed and power would significantly be reduced in the high CO2 climate scenario offshore of the mid-Atlantic and northeast U.S., with the speed falling to one quarter of its original value.

The atmosphere and ocean: A physical introduction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wells, N.

1986-01-01

The book's contents are: The Earth within the solar system. Composition and physical properties of the ocean and atmosphere. Radiation, temperature and stability. Water in the atmosphere. Global budgets of heat, water and salt. Observations of winds and currents. The influence of the Earth's rotation on fluid motion. Waves and tides. Energy transfer in the ocean-atmosphere system. Climate variability and predictability. The atmosphere and ocean are two different environmental systems, yet both are interdependent, interacting and exchanging energy, heat and matter. This book attempts to bring the study of the atmosphere and ocean together. It is a descriptive account of physical properties, exploring their common bases, similarities, interactions and fundamental differences

Climate Modeling: Ocean Cavities below Ice Shelves

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Petersen, Mark Roger [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Computer, Computational, and Statistical Sciences Division

2016-09-12

The Accelerated Climate Model for Energy (ACME), a new initiative by the U.S. Department of Energy, includes unstructured-mesh ocean, land-ice, and sea-ice components using the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) framework. The ability to run coupled high-resolution global simulations efficiently on large, high-performance computers is a priority for ACME. Sub-ice shelf ocean cavities are a significant new capability in ACME, and will be used to better understand how changing ocean temperature and currents influence glacial melting and retreat. These simulations take advantage of the horizontal variable-resolution mesh and adaptive vertical coordinate in MPAS-Ocean, in order to place high resolution below ice shelves and near grounding lines.

Evaluation of Oceanic Surface Observation for Reproducing the Upper Ocean Structure in ECHAM5/MPI-OM

Science.gov (United States)

Luo, Hao; Zheng, Fei; Zhu, Jiang

2017-12-01

Better constraints of initial conditions from data assimilation are necessary for climate simulations and predictions, and they are particularly important for the ocean due to its long climate memory; as such, ocean data assimilation (ODA) is regarded as an effective tool for seasonal to decadal predictions. In this work, an ODA system is established for a coupled climate model (ECHAM5/MPI-OM), which can assimilate all available oceanic observations using an ensemble optimal interpolation approach. To validate and isolate the performance of different surface observations in reproducing air-sea climate variations in the model, a set of observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) was performed over 150 model years. Generally, assimilating sea surface temperature, sea surface salinity, and sea surface height (SSH) can reasonably reproduce the climate variability and vertical structure of the upper ocean, and assimilating SSH achieves the best results compared to the true states. For the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), assimilating different surface observations captures true aspects of ENSO well, but assimilating SSH can further enhance the accuracy of ENSO-related feedback processes in the coupled model, leading to a more reasonable ENSO evolution and air-sea interaction over the tropical Pacific. For ocean heat content, there are still limitations in reproducing the long time-scale variability in the North Atlantic, even if SSH has been taken into consideration. These results demonstrate the effectiveness of assimilating surface observations in capturing the interannual signal and, to some extent, the decadal signal but still highlight the necessity of assimilating profile data to reproduce specific decadal variability.

Impacts of dynamical ocean coupling in MJO experiments using NICAM/NICOCO

Science.gov (United States)

Miyakawa, T.

2016-12-01

The cloud-system resolving atmosphereic model NICAM has been successfull in producing Madden-Julian Oscillations(MJOs), having it's prediction skill estimated to be about 4 weeks in a series of hindcast experiments for winter MJO events during 2003-2012 (Miyakawa et al. 2014). A simple mixed-layer ocean model has been applied with nudging towards a prescribed "persistent anomaly SST", which maintains the initial anomaly with a time-varying climatological seasonal cycle. This setup enables the model to interact with an ocean with reasonably realistic SST, and also run in a "forecast mode", without using any observational information after the initial date. A limitation is that under this setup, the model skill drops if the oceanic anomaly rapidly changes after the initial date in the real world. Here we run a recently developed, full 3D-ocean coupled version NICAM-COCO (NICOCO) and explore its impact on MJO simulations. Dynamical ocean models can produce oceanic waves/currents, but will also have a bias and drift away from reality. In a sub-seasonal simulation (an initial problem), it is essential to compare the merit of having better represented oceanic signals and the demerit of bias/drift. A test case simulation series featuring an MJO that triggered the abrupt termination of a major El Nino in 1998 shows that the abrupt termination occurs in all 9 simulation members, highlighting the merit of ocean coupling. However, this is a case where oceanic signals are at its extremes. We carried out an estimation of MJO prediction skill for a preliminary 1-degree mesh ocean version of NICOCO in a similar manner to Miyakawa et al. (2014). The MJO skill was degraded for simulations that was initialized at RMM phases 1 and 2 (corresponding to the Indian Ocean), while those initialized at phase 8 (Africa) was not strongly affected. The tendency of the model ocean to overestimate the Maritime Continent warm pool SST possibly delays the eastward propagation of MJO convective

Carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide in the North Indian Ocean

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

DileepKumar, M.; Naqvi, S.W.A; Jayakumar, D.A; George, M.D.; Narvekar, P.V.; DeSousa, S

The understanding of biogeochemical cycling of carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide in the oceans is essential for predicting the fate of anthropogenically emitted components. The North Indian Ocean, with its diverse regimes, provides us with a natural...

Metagenomic exploration of viruses throughout the Indian Ocean.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shannon J Williamson

Full Text Available The characterization of global marine microbial taxonomic and functional diversity is a primary goal of the Global Ocean Sampling Expedition. As part of this study, 19 water samples were collected aboard the Sorcerer II sailing vessel from the southern Indian Ocean in an effort to more thoroughly understand the lifestyle strategies of the microbial inhabitants of this ultra-oligotrophic region. No investigations of whole virioplankton assemblages have been conducted on waters collected from the Indian Ocean or across multiple size fractions thus far. Therefore, the goals of this study were to examine the effect of size fractionation on viral consortia structure and function and understand the diversity and functional potential of the Indian Ocean virome. Five samples were selected for comprehensive metagenomic exploration; and sequencing was performed on the microbes captured on 3.0-, 0.8- and 0.1 µm membrane filters as well as the viral fraction (<0.1 µm. Phylogenetic approaches were also used to identify predicted proteins of viral origin in the larger fractions of data from all Indian Ocean samples, which were included in subsequent metagenomic analyses. Taxonomic profiling of viral sequences suggested that size fractionation of marine microbial communities enriches for specific groups of viruses within the different size classes and functional characterization further substantiated this observation. Functional analyses also revealed a relative enrichment for metabolic proteins of viral origin that potentially reflect the physiological condition of host cells in the Indian Ocean including those involved in nitrogen metabolism and oxidative phosphorylation. A novel classification method, MGTAXA, was used to assess virus-host relationships in the Indian Ocean by predicting the taxonomy of putative host genera, with Prochlorococcus, Acanthochlois and members of the SAR86 cluster comprising the most abundant predictions. This is the first study

Variability, interaction and change in the atmosphere-ocean-ecology system of the Western Indian Ocean.

Science.gov (United States)

Spencer, T; Laughton, A S; Flemming, N C

2005-01-15

Traditional ideas of intraseasonal and interannual climatic variability in the Western Indian Ocean, dominated by the mean cycle of seasonally reversing monsoon winds, are being replaced by a more complex picture, comprising air-sea interactions and feedbacks; atmosphere-ocean dynamics operating over intrannual to interdecadal time-scales; and climatological and oceanographic boundary condition changes at centennial to millennial time-scales. These forcings, which are mediated by the orography of East Africa and the Asian continent and by seafloor topography (most notably in this area by the banks and shoals of the Mascarene Plateau which interrupts the westward-flowing South Equatorial Current), determine fluxes of water, nutrients and biogeochemical constituents, the essential controls on ocean and shallow-sea productivity and ecosystem health. Better prediction of climatic variability for rain-fed agriculture, and the development of sustainable marine resource use, is of critical importance to the developing countries of this region but requires further basic information gathering and coordinated ocean observation systems.

Predicted radionuclide release from reactor-related unenclosed solid objects dumped in the Sea of Japan and the Pacific Ocean, east coast of Kamchatka

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mount, M.E.; Lynn, N.M.; Warden, J.M.

1996-06-01

Between 1978 and 1991 reactor-related solid radioactive waste was dumped by the former Soviet Union as unenclosed objects in the Pacific Ocean, east coast of Kamchatka, and the Sea of Japan. This paper presented estimates for the current (1994) inventory of activation and corrosion products contained in the reactor-related unenclosed solid objects. In addition, simple models derived for prediction of radionuclide release from marine reactors dumped in the Kara Sea are applied to certain of the dumped objects to provide estimates of radionuclide release to the Pacific Ocean, east coast of Kamchatka, and Sea of Japan environments. For the Pacific Ocean, east coast of Kamchatka, total release rates start below 0.01 GBq yr -1 and over 1,000 years, fall to 100 Bq yr -1 . In the Sea of Japan, the total release rate starts just above 1 GBq yr - 1 , dropping off to a level less than 0.1 GBq yr -1 , extending past the year 4,000

Magnetic Fields Induced in the Solid Earth and Oceans

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kuvshinov, Alexei; Olsen, Nils

, utilizing realistic 3-D conductivity models of the oceans, crust and mantle. In addition to these improvements in the prediction of 3-D induction effects, much attention has been paid to identifying magnetic signals of oceanic origin in observatory and satellite data. During the talk we will present...

Analysis of different atmospheric physical parameterizations in COAWST modeling system for the Tropical Storm Nock-ten application

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ren, Danqin; Du, Jianting; Hua, Feng

2016-01-01

the storm center area. As a result, using Kain–Fritsch cumulus scheme, Goddard shortwave radiation scheme and RRTM longwave radiation scheme in WRF may lead to much larger wind intensity, significant wave height, current intensity, as well as lower SST and sea surface pressure. Thus......A coupled ocean–atmosphere–wave–sediment transport modeling system was applied to study the atmosphere and ocean dynamics during Tropical Storm Nock-ten. Different atmospheric physical parameterizations in WRF model were investigated through ten groups of numerical experiments. Results...... of atmosphere, ocean wave and current features were compared with storm observations, ERA-Interim data, NOAA sea surface temperature data, AVISO current data and HYCOM data, respectively. It was found that the storm track and intensity are sensitive to the cumulus and radiation schemes in WRF, especially around...

Numerical model of the transition from continental rifting to oceanization: the case study of the Ligure-Piemontese ocean.

Science.gov (United States)

Roda, M.; Marotta, A. M.; Conte, K.; Spalla, M. I.

2015-12-01

The transition from continental rifting to oceanization has been investigated by mean of a 2D thermo-mechanical numerical model in which the formation of oceanic crust by mantle serpentinization, due to the hydration of the uprising peridotite, as been implemented. Model predictions have been compared with natural data related to the Permian-Triassic thinning affecting the continental lithosphere of the Alpine domain, in order to identify which portions of the present Alpine-Apennine system, preserving the imprints of Permian-Triassic high temperature (HT) metamorphism, is compatible, in terms of lithostratigraphy and tectono-metamorphic evolution, with a lithospheric extension preceding the opening of the Ligure-Piemontese oceanic basin. At this purpose age, petrological and structural data from the Alpine and Apennine ophiolite complexes are compared with model predictions from the oceanization stage. Our comparative analysis supports the thesis that the lithospheric extension preceding the opening of the Alpine Tethys did not start on a stable continental lithosphere, but developed by recycling part of the old Variscan collisional suture. The HT Permian-Triassic metamorphic re-equilibration overprints an inherited tectonic and metamorphic setting consequent to the Variscan subduction and collision, making the Alps a key case history to explore mechanisms responsible for the re-activation of orogenic scars.

Effects of Long Period Ocean Tides on the Earth's Rotation

Science.gov (United States)

Gross, Richard S.; Chao, Ben F.; Desai, Shailen D.

1996-01-01

The spectra of polar motion excitation functions exhibit enhanced power in the fortnightly tidal band. This enhanced power is attributed to ocean tidal excitation. Ocean tide models predict polar motion excitation effects that differ with each other, and with observations, by factors as large as 2-3. There is a need for inproved models for the effect of long-period ocean tides on Earth's rotation.

An Initial Assessment of the Impact of CYGNSS Ocean Surface Wind Assimilation on Navy Global and Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Baker, N. L.; Tsu, J.; Swadley, S. D.

2017-12-01

We assess the impact of assimilation of CYclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) ocean surface winds observations into the NAVGEM[i] global and COAMPS®[ii] mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems. Both NAVGEM and COAMPS® used the NRL 4DVar assimilation system NAVDAS-AR[iii]. Long term monitoring of the NAVGEM Forecast Sensitivity Observation Impact (FSOI) indicates that the forecast error reduction for ocean surface wind vectors (ASCAT and WindSat) are significantly larger than for SSMIS wind speed observations. These differences are larger than can be explained by simply two pieces of information (for wind vectors) versus one (wind speed). To help understand these results, we conducted a series of Observing System Experiments (OSEs) to compare the assimilation of ASCAT wind vectors with the equivalent (computed) ASCAT wind speed observations. We found that wind vector assimilation was typically 3 times more effective at reducing the NAVGEM forecast error, with a higher percentage of beneficial observations. These results suggested that 4DVar, in the absence of an additional nonlinear outer loop, has limited ability to modify the analysis wind direction. We examined several strategies for assimilating CYGNSS ocean surface wind speed observations. In the first approach, we assimilated CYGNSS as wind speed observations, following the same methodology used for SSMIS winds. The next two approaches converted CYGNSS wind speed to wind vectors, using NAVGEM sea level pressure fields (following Holton, 1979), and using NAVGEM 10-m wind fields with the AER Variational Analysis Method. Finally, we compared these methods to CYGNSS wind speed assimilation using multiple outer loops with NAVGEM Hybrid 4DVar. Results support the earlier studies suggesting that NAVDAS-AR wind speed assimilation is sub-optimal. We present detailed results from multi-month NAVGEM assimilation runs along with case studies using COAMPS®. Comparisons include the fit of

Comparative Analysis of Upper Ocean Heat Content Variability from Ensemble Operational Ocean Analyses

Science.gov (United States)

Xue, Yan; Balmaseda, Magdalena A.; Boyer, Tim; Ferry, Nicolas; Good, Simon; Ishikawa, Ichiro; Rienecker, Michele; Rosati, Tony; Yin, Yonghong; Kumar, Arun

2012-01-01

Upper ocean heat content (HC) is one of the key indicators of climate variability on many time-scales extending from seasonal to interannual to long-term climate trends. For example, HC in the tropical Pacific provides information on thermocline anomalies that is critical for the longlead forecast skill of ENSO. Since HC variability is also associated with SST variability, a better understanding and monitoring of HC variability can help us understand and forecast SST variability associated with ENSO and other modes such as Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Tropical Atlantic Variability (TAV) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). An accurate ocean initialization of HC anomalies in coupled climate models could also contribute to skill in decadal climate prediction. Errors, and/or uncertainties, in the estimation of HC variability can be affected by many factors including uncertainties in surface forcings, ocean model biases, and deficiencies in data assimilation schemes. Changes in observing systems can also leave an imprint on the estimated variability. The availability of multiple operational ocean analyses (ORA) that are routinely produced by operational and research centers around the world provides an opportunity to assess uncertainties in HC analyses, to help identify gaps in observing systems as they impact the quality of ORAs and therefore climate model forecasts. A comparison of ORAs also gives an opportunity to identify deficiencies in data assimilation schemes, and can be used as a basis for development of real-time multi-model ensemble HC monitoring products. The OceanObs09 Conference called for an intercomparison of ORAs and use of ORAs for global ocean monitoring. As a follow up, we intercompared HC variations from ten ORAs -- two objective analyses based on in-situ data only and eight model analyses based on ocean data assimilation systems. The mean, annual cycle, interannual variability and longterm trend of HC have

Effects of near-future ocean acidification, fishing, and marine protection on a temperate coastal ecosystem.

Science.gov (United States)

Cornwall, Christopher E; Eddy, Tyler D

2015-02-01

Understanding ecosystem responses to global and local anthropogenic impacts is paramount to predicting future ecosystem states. We used an ecosystem modeling approach to investigate the independent and cumulative effects of fishing, marine protection, and ocean acidification on a coastal ecosystem. To quantify the effects of ocean acidification at the ecosystem level, we used information from the peer-reviewed literature on the effects of ocean acidification. Using an Ecopath with Ecosim ecosystem model for the Wellington south coast, including the Taputeranga Marine Reserve (MR), New Zealand, we predicted ecosystem responses under 4 scenarios: ocean acidification + fishing; ocean acidification + MR (no fishing); no ocean acidification + fishing; no ocean acidification + MR for the year 2050. Fishing had a larger effect on trophic group biomasses and trophic structure than ocean acidification, whereas the effects of ocean acidification were only large in the absence of fishing. Mortality by fishing had large, negative effects on trophic group biomasses. These effects were similar regardless of the presence of ocean acidification. Ocean acidification was predicted to indirectly benefit certain species in the MR scenario. This was because lobster (Jasus edwardsii) only recovered to 58% of the MR biomass in the ocean acidification + MR scenario, a situation that benefited the trophic groups lobsters prey on. Most trophic groups responded antagonistically to the interactive effects of ocean acidification and marine protection (46%; reduced response); however, many groups responded synergistically (33%; amplified response). Conservation and fisheries management strategies need to account for the reduced recovery potential of some exploited species under ocean acidification, nonadditive interactions of multiple factors, and indirect responses of species to ocean acidification caused by declines in calcareous predators. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

Red coral extinction risk enhanced by ocean acidification.

Science.gov (United States)

Cerrano, Carlo; Cardini, Ulisse; Bianchelli, Silvia; Corinaldesi, Cinzia; Pusceddu, Antonio; Danovaro, Roberto

2013-01-01

The red coral Corallium rubrum is a habitat-forming species with a prominent and structural role in mesophotic habitats, which sustains biodiversity hotspots. This precious coral is threatened by both over-exploitation and temperature driven mass mortality events. We report here that biocalcification, growth rates and polyps' (feeding) activity of Corallium rubrum are significantly reduced at pCO2 scenarios predicted for the end of this century (0.2 pH decrease). Since C. rubrum is a long-living species (>200 years), our results suggest that ocean acidification predicted for 2100 will significantly increases the risk of extinction of present populations. Given the functional role of these corals in the mesophotic zone, we predict that ocean acidification might have cascading effects on the functioning of these habitats worldwide.

Volcanic signals in oceans

KAUST Repository

Stenchikov, Georgiy L.

2009-08-22

Sulfate aerosols resulting from strong volcanic explosions last for 2–3 years in the lower stratosphere. Therefore it was traditionally believed that volcanic impacts produce mainly short-term, transient climate perturbations. However, the ocean integrates volcanic radiative cooling and responds over a wide range of time scales. The associated processes, especially ocean heat uptake, play a key role in ongoing climate change. However, they are not well constrained by observations, and attempts to simulate them in current climate models used for climate predictions yield a range of uncertainty. Volcanic impacts on the ocean provide an independent means of assessing these processes. This study focuses on quantification of the seasonal to multidecadal time scale response of the ocean to explosive volcanism. It employs the coupled climate model CM2.1, developed recently at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration\\'s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, to simulate the response to the 1991 Pinatubo and the 1815 Tambora eruptions, which were the largest in the 20th and 19th centuries, respectively. The simulated climate perturbations compare well with available observations for the Pinatubo period. The stronger Tambora forcing produces responses with higher signal-to-noise ratio. Volcanic cooling tends to strengthen the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Sea ice extent appears to be sensitive to volcanic forcing, especially during the warm season. Because of the extremely long relaxation time of ocean subsurface temperature and sea level, the perturbations caused by the Tambora eruption could have lasted well into the 20th century.

Prediction of tropical cyclone over North Indian Ocean using WRF model: sensitivity to scatterometer winds, ATOVS and ATMS radiances

KAUST Repository

Dodla, Venkata B.

2016-05-03

Tropical cyclone prediction, in terms of intensification and movement, is important for disaster management and mitigation. Hitherto, research studies were focused on this issue that lead to improvement in numerical models, initial data with data assimilation, physical parameterizations and application of ensemble prediction. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is the state-of-art model for cyclone prediction. In the present study, prediction of tropical cyclone (Phailin, 2013) that formed in the North Indian Ocean (NIO) with and without data assimilation using WRF model has been made to assess impacts of data assimilation. WRF model was designed to have nested two domains of 15 and 5 km resolutions. In the present study, numerical experiments are made without and with the assimilation of scatterometer winds, and radiances from ATOVS and ATMS. The model performance was assessed in respect to the movement and intensification of cyclone. ATOVS data assimilation experiment had produced the best prediction with least errors less than 100 km up to 60 hours and producing pre-deepening and deepening periods accurately. The Control and SCAT wind assimilation experiments have shown good track but the errors were 150-200 km and gradual deepening from the beginning itself instead of sudden deepening.

Investigating Undergraduate Science Students' Conceptions and Misconceptions of Ocean Acidification

Science.gov (United States)

Danielson, Kathryn I.; Tanner, Kimberly D.

2015-01-01

Scientific research exploring ocean acidification has grown significantly in past decades. However, little science education research has investigated the extent to which undergraduate science students understand this topic. Of all undergraduate students, one might predict science students to be best able to understand ocean acidification. What…

Global ocean tides through assimilation of oceanographic and altimeter satellite data in a hydrodynamic model

Science.gov (United States)

Leprovost, Christian; Mazzega, P.; Vincent, P.

1991-01-01

Ocean tides must be considered in many scientific disciplines: astronomy, oceanography, geodesy, geophysics, meteorology, and space technologies. Progress in each of these disciplines leads to the need for greater knowledge and more precise predictions of the ocean tide contribution. This is particularly true of satellite altimetry. On one side, the present and future satellite altimetry missions provide and will supply new data that will contribute to the improvement of the present ocean tide solutions. On the other side, tidal corrections included in the Geophysical Data Records must be determined with the maximum possible accuracy. The valuable results obtained with satellite altimeter data thus far have not been penalized by the insufficiencies of the present ocean tide predictions included in the geophysical data records (GDR's) because the oceanic processes investigated have shorter wavelengths than the error field of the tidal predictions, so that the residual errors of the tidal corrections are absorbed in the empirical tilt and bias corrections of the satellite orbit. For future applications to large-scale oceanic phenomena, however, it will no longer be possible to ignore these insufficiencies.

Ocean Acidification | Smithsonian Ocean Portal

Science.gov (United States)

Natural History Blog For Educators At The Museum Media Archive Ocean Life & Ecosystems Mammals Sharks Mangroves Poles Census of Marine Life Planet Ocean Tides & Currents Waves & Storms The Seafloor ocean is affected. Such a relatively quick change in ocean chemistry doesn't give marine life, which

Mechanisms underlying recent decadal changes in subpolar North Atlantic Ocean heat content

Science.gov (United States)

Piecuch, Christopher G.; Ponte, Rui M.; Little, Christopher M.; Buckley, Martha W.; Fukumori, Ichiro

2017-09-01

The subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) is subject to strong decadal variability, with implications for surface climate and its predictability. In 2004-2005, SPNA decadal upper ocean and sea-surface temperature trends reversed from warming during 1994-2004 to cooling over 2005-2015. This recent decadal trend reversal in SPNA ocean heat content (OHC) is studied using a physically consistent, observationally constrained global ocean state estimate covering 1992-2015. The estimate's physical consistency facilitates quantitative causal attribution of ocean variations. Closed heat budget diagnostics reveal that the SPNA OHC trend reversal is the result of heat advection by midlatitude ocean circulation. Kinematic decompositions reveal that changes in the deep and intermediate vertical overturning circulation cannot account for the trend reversal, but rather ocean heat transports by horizontal gyre circulations render the primary contributions. The shift in horizontal gyre advection reflects anomalous circulation acting on the mean temperature gradients. Maximum covariance analysis (MCA) reveals strong covariation between the anomalous horizontal gyre circulation and variations in the local wind stress curl, suggestive of a Sverdrup response. Results have implications for decadal predictability.

Resolving high-frequency internal waves generated at an isolated coral atoll using an unstructured grid ocean model

Science.gov (United States)

Rayson, Matthew D.; Ivey, Gregory N.; Jones, Nicole L.; Fringer, Oliver B.

2018-02-01

We apply the unstructured grid hydrodynamic model SUNTANS to investigate the internal wave dynamics around Scott Reef, Western Australia, an isolated coral reef atoll located on the edge of the continental shelf in water depths of 500,m and more. The atoll is subject to strong semi-diurnal tidal forcing and consists of two relatively shallow lagoons separated by a 500 m deep, 2 km wide and 15 km long channel. We focus on the dynamics in this channel as the internal tide-driven flow and resulting mixing is thought to be a key mechanism controlling heat and nutrient fluxes into the reef lagoons. We use an unstructured grid to discretise the domain and capture both the complex topography and the range of internal wave length scales in the channel flow. The model internal wave field shows super-tidal frequency lee waves generated by the combination of the steep channel topography and strong tidal flow. We evaluate the model performance using observations of velocity and temperature from two through water-column moorings in the channel separating the two reefs. Three different global ocean state estimate datasets (global HYCOM, CSIRO Bluelink, CSIRO climatology atlas) were used to provide the model initial and boundary conditions, and the model outputs from each were evaluated against the field observations. The scenario incorporating the CSIRO Bluelink data performed best in terms of through-water column Murphy skill scores of water temperature and eastward velocity variability in the channel. The model captures the observed vertical structure of the tidal (M2) and super-tidal (M4) frequency temperature and velocity oscillations. The model also predicts the direction and magnitude of the M2 internal tide energy flux. An energy analysis reveals a net convergence of the M2 energy flux and a divergence of the M4 energy flux in the channel, indicating the channel is a region of either energy transfer to higher frequencies or energy loss to dissipation. This conclusion is

Deformation, Fluid Flow and Mantle Serpentinization at Oceanic Transform Faults

Science.gov (United States)

Rupke, L.; Hasenclever, J.

2017-12-01

Oceanic transform faults (OTF) and fracture zones have long been hypothesized to be sites of enhanced fluid flow and biogeochemical exchange. In this context, the serpentine forming interaction between seawater and cold lithospheric mantle rocks is particularly interesting. The transformation of peridotite to serpentinite not only leads to hydration of oceanic plates and is thereby an important agent of the geological water cycle, it is also a mechanism of abiotic hydrogen and methane formation, which can support archeal and bacterial communities at the seafloor. Inferring the likely amount of mantle undergoing serpentinization reactions therefore allows estimating the amount of biomass that may be autotrophically produced at and around oceanic transform faults and mid-ocean ridges Here we present results of 3-D geodynamic model simulations that explore the interrelations between deformation, fluid flow, and mantle serpentinization at oceanic transform faults. We investigate how slip rate and fault offset affect the predicted patterns of mantle serpentinization around oceanic transform faults. Global rates of mantle serpentinization and associated H2 production are calculated by integrating the modeling results with plate boundary data. The global additional OTF-related production of H2 is found to be between 6.1 and 10.7 x 1011 mol per year, which is comparable to the predicted background mid-ocean ridge rate of 4.1 - 15.0 x 1011 mol H2/yr. This points to oceanic transform faults as potential sites of intense fluid-rock interaction, where chemosynthetic life could be sustained by serpentinization reactions.

Future ocean hypercapnia driven by anthropogenic amplification of the natural CO2 cycle

Science.gov (United States)

McNeil, Ben I.; Sasse, Tristan P.

2016-01-01

High carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations in sea-water (ocean hypercapnia) can induce neurological, physiological and behavioural deficiencies in marine animals. Prediction of the onset and evolution of hypercapnia in the ocean requires a good understanding of annual variations in oceanic CO2 concentration, but there is a lack of relevant global observational data. Here we identify global ocean patterns of monthly variability in carbon concentration using observations that allow us to examine the evolution of surface-ocean CO2 levels over the entire annual cycle under increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. We predict that the present-day amplitude of the natural oscillations in oceanic CO2 concentration will be amplified by up to tenfold in some regions by 2100, if atmospheric CO2 concentrations continue to rise throughout this century (according to the RCP8.5 scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). The findings from our data are broadly consistent with projections from Earth system climate models. Our predicted amplification of the annual CO2 cycle displays distinct global patterns that may expose major fisheries in the Southern, Pacific and North Atlantic oceans to hypercapnia many decades earlier than is expected from average atmospheric CO2 concentrations. We suggest that these ocean ‘CO2 hotspots’ evolve as a combination of the strong seasonal dynamics of CO2 concentration and the long-term effective storage of anthropogenic CO2 in the oceans that lowers the buffer capacity in these regions, causing a nonlinear amplification of CO2 concentration over the annual cycle. The onset of ocean hypercapnia (when the partial pressure of CO2 in sea-water exceeds 1,000 micro-atmospheres) is forecast for atmospheric CO2 concentrations that exceed 650 parts per million, with hypercapnia expected in up to half the surface ocean by 2100, assuming a high-emissions scenario (RCP8.5). Such extensive ocean hypercapnia has detrimental implications for

Solving large linear systems in an implicit thermohaline ocean model

NARCIS (Netherlands)

de Niet, Arie Christiaan

2007-01-01

The climate on earth is largely determined by the global ocean circulation. Hence it is important to predict how the flow will react to perturbation by for example melting icecaps. To answer questions about the stability of the global ocean flow, a computer model has been developed that is able to

ATOP - The Advanced Taiwan Ocean Prediction System Based on the mpiPOM. Part 1: Model Descriptions, Analyses and Results

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Leo Oey

2013-01-01

Full Text Available A data-assimilated Taiwan Ocean Prediction (ATOP system is being developed at the National Central University, Taiwan. The model simulates sea-surface height, three-dimensional currents, temperature and salinity and turbulent mixing. The model has options for tracer and particle-tracking algorithms, as well as for wave-induced Stokes drift and wave-enhanced mixing and bottom drag. Two different forecast domains have been tested: a large-grid domain that encompasses the entire North Pacific Ocean at 0.1° × 0.1° horizontal resolution and 41 vertical sigma levels, and a smaller western North Pacific domain which at present also has the same horizontal resolution. In both domains, 25-year spin-up runs from 1988 - 2011 were first conducted, forced by six-hourly Cross-Calibrated Multi-Platform (CCMP and NCEP reanalysis Global Forecast System (GSF winds. The results are then used as initial conditions to conduct ocean analyses from January 2012 through February 2012, when updated hindcasts and real-time forecasts begin using the GFS winds. This paper describes the ATOP system and compares the forecast results against satellite altimetry data for assessing model skills. The model results are also shown to compare well with observations of (i the Kuroshio intrusion in the northern South China Sea, and (ii subtropical counter current. Review and comparison with other models in the literature of ¡§(i¡¨ are also given.

Ocean modelling aspects for drift applications

Science.gov (United States)

Stephane, L.; Pierre, D.

2010-12-01

Nowadays, many authorities in charge of rescue-at-sea operations lean on operational oceanography products to outline research perimeters. Moreover, current fields estimated with sophisticated ocean forecasting systems can be used as input data for oil spill/ adrift object fate models. This emphasises the necessity of an accurate sea state forecast, with a mastered level of reliability. This work focuses on several problems inherent to drift modeling, dealing in the first place with the efficiency of the oceanic current field representation. As we want to discriminate the relevance of a particular physical process or modeling option, the idea is to generate series of current fields of different characteristics and then qualify them in term of drift prediction efficiency. Benchmarked drift scenarios were set up from real surface drifters data, collected in the Mediterranean sea and off the coasts of Angola. The time and space scales that we are interested in are about 72 hr forecasts (typical timescale communicated in case of crisis), for distance errors that we hope about a few dozen of km around the forecast (acceptable for reconnaissance by aircrafts) For the ocean prediction, we used some regional oceanic configurations based on the NEMO 2.3 code, nested into Mercator 1/12° operational system. Drift forecasts were computed offline with Mothy (Météo France oil spill modeling system) and Ariane (B. Blanke, 1997), a Lagrangian diagnostic tool. We were particularly interested in the importance of the horizontal resolution, vertical mixing schemes, and any processes that may impact the surface layer. The aim of the study is to ultimately point at the most suitable set of parameters for drift forecast use inside operational oceanic systems. We are also motivated in assessing the relevancy of ensemble forecasts regarding determinist predictions. Several tests showed that mis-described observed trajectories can finally be modelled statistically by using uncertainties

Swell Propagation over Indian Ocean Region

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Suchandra A. Bhowmick

2011-06-01

Full Text Available Swells are the ocean surface gravity waves that have propagated out of their generating fetch to the distant coasts without significant attenuation. Therefore they contain a clear signature of the nature and intensity of wind at the generation location. This makes them a precursor to various atmospheric phenomena like distant storms, tropical cyclones, or even large scale sea breeze like monsoon. Since they are not affected by wind once they propagate out of their generating region, they cannot be described by regional wave models forced by local winds. However, their prediction is important, in particular, for ship routing and off shore structure designing. In the present work, the propagation of swell waves from the Southern Ocean and southern Indian Ocean to the central and northern Indian Ocean has been studied. For this purpose a spectral ocean Wave Model (WAM has been used to simulate significant wave height for 13 years from 1993–2005 using NCEP blended winds at a horizontal spatial resolution of 1° × 1°. It has been observed that Indian Ocean, with average wave height of approximately 2–3 m during July, is mostly dominated by swell waves generated predominantly under the extreme windy conditions prevailing over the Southern Ocean and southern Indian Ocean. In fact the swell waves reaching the Indian Ocean in early or mid May carry unique signatures of monsoon arriving over the Indian Subcontinent. Pre-monsoon month of April contains low swell waves ranging from 0.5–1 m. The amplitudes subsequently increase to approximately 1.5–2 meters around 7–15 days prior to the arrival of monsoon over the Indian Subcontinent. This embedded signature may be utilized as one of the important oceanographic precursor to the monsoon onset over the Indian Ocean.

Subsurface Ocean Tides in Enceladus and Other Icy Moons

Science.gov (United States)

Beuthe, M.

2016-12-01

Could tidal dissipation within Enceladus' subsurface ocean account for the observed heat flow? Earthlike models of dynamical tides give no definitive answer because they neglect the influence of the crust. I propose here the first model of dissipative tides in a subsurface ocean, by combining the Laplace Tidal Equations with the membrane approach. For the first time, it is possible to compute tidal dissipation rates within the crust, ocean, and mantle in one go. I show that oceanic dissipation is strongly reduced by the crustal constraint, and thus contributes little to Enceladus' present heat budget. Tidal resonances could have played a role in a forming or freezing ocean less than 100 meters deep. The model is general: it applies to all icy satellites with a thin crust and a shallow or stratified ocean. Scaling rules relate the resonances and dissipation rate of a subsurface ocean to the ones of a surface ocean. If the ocean has low viscosity, the westward obliquity tide does not move the crust. Therefore, crustal dissipation due to dynamical obliquity tides can differ from the static prediction by up to a factor of two.

Autonomous observations of the ocean biological carbon pump

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bishop, James K.B.

2009-03-01

Prediction of the substantial biologically mediated carbon flows in a rapidly changing and acidifying ocean requires model simulations informed by observations of key carbon cycle processes on the appropriate space and time scales. From 2000 to 2004, the National Oceanographic Partnership Program (NOPP) supported the development of the first low-cost fully-autonomous ocean profiling Carbon Explorers that demonstrated that year-round real-time observations of particulate organic carbon (POC) concentration and sedimentation could be achieved in the world's ocean. NOPP also initiated the development of a sensor for particulate inorganic carbon (PIC) suitable for operational deployment across all oceanographic platforms. As a result, PIC profile characterization that once required shipboard sample collection and shipboard or shore based laboratory analysis, is now possible to full ocean depth in real time using a 0.2W sensor operating at 24 Hz. NOPP developments further spawned US DOE support to develop the Carbon Flux Explorer, a free-vehicle capable of following hourly variations of particulate inorganic and organic carbon sedimentation from near surface to kilometer depths for seasons to years and capable of relaying contemporaneous observations via satellite. We have demonstrated the feasibility of real time - low cost carbon observations which are of fundamental value to carbon prediction and when further developed, will lead to a fully enhanced global carbon observatory capable of real time assessment of the ocean carbon sink, a needed constraint for assessment of carbon management policies on a global scale.

Role of Ocean Initial Conditions to Diminish Dry Bias in the Seasonal Prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall: A Case Study Using Climate Forecast System

Science.gov (United States)

Koul, Vimal; Parekh, Anant; Srinivas, G.; Kakatkar, Rashmi; Chowdary, Jasti S.; Gnanaseelan, C.

2018-03-01

Coupled models tend to underestimate Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall over most of the Indian subcontinent. Present study demonstrates that a part of dry bias is arising from the discrepancies in Oceanic Initial Conditions (OICs). Two hindcast experiments are carried out using Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) for summer monsoons of 2012-2014 in which two different OICs are utilized. With respect to first experiment (CTRL), second experiment (AcSAL) differs by two aspects: usage of high-resolution atmospheric forcing and assimilation of only ARGO observed temperature and salinity profiles for OICs. Assessment of OICs indicates that the quality of OICs is enhanced due to assimilation of actual salinity profiles. Analysis reveals that AcSAL experiment showed 10% reduction in the dry bias over the Indian land region during the ISM compared to CTRL. This improvement is consistently apparent in each month and is highest for June. The better representation of upper ocean thermal structure of tropical oceans at initial stage supports realistic upper ocean stability and mixing. Which in fact reduced the dominant cold bias over the ocean, feedback to air-sea interactions and land sea thermal contrast resulting better representation of monsoon circulation and moisture transport. This reduced bias of tropospheric moisture and temperature over the Indian land mass and also produced better tropospheric temperature gradient over land as well as ocean. These feedback processes reduced the dry bias in the ISM rainfall. Study concludes that initializing the coupled models with realistic OICs can reduce the underestimation of ISM rainfall prediction.

The emergence of modern sea ice cover in the Arctic Ocean.

Science.gov (United States)

Knies, Jochen; Cabedo-Sanz, Patricia; Belt, Simon T; Baranwal, Soma; Fietz, Susanne; Rosell-Melé, Antoni

2014-11-28

Arctic sea ice coverage is shrinking in response to global climate change and summer ice-free conditions in the Arctic Ocean are predicted by the end of the century. The validity of this prediction could potentially be tested through the reconstruction of the climate of the Pliocene epoch (5.33-2.58 million years ago), an analogue of a future warmer Earth. Here we show that, in the Eurasian sector of the Arctic Ocean, ice-free conditions prevailed in the early Pliocene until sea ice expanded from the central Arctic Ocean for the first time ca. 4 million years ago. Amplified by a rise in topography in several regions of the Arctic and enhanced freshening of the Arctic Ocean, sea ice expanded progressively in response to positive ice-albedo feedback mechanisms. Sea ice reached its modern winter maximum extension for the first time during the culmination of the Northern Hemisphere glaciation, ca. 2.6 million years ago.

Frequency of Tropical Ocean Deep Convection and Global Warming

Science.gov (United States)

Aumann, H. H.; Behrangi, A.; Ruzmaikin, A.

2017-12-01

The average of 36 CMIP5 models predicts about 3K of warming and a 4.7% increase in precipitation for the tropical oceans with a doubling of the CO2 by the end of this century. For this scenario we evaluate the increase in the frequency of Deep Convective Clouds (DCC) in the tropical oceans. We select only DCC which reach or penetrate the tropopause in the 15 km AIRS footprint. The evaluation is based on Probability Distribution Functions (PDFs) of the current temperatures of the tropical oceans, those predicted by the mean of the CMIP5 models and the PDF of the DCC process. The PDF of the DCC process is derived from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) between the years 2003 and 2016. During this time the variability due Enso years provided a 1 K p-p change in the mean tropical SST. The key parameter is the SST associated with the onset of the DCC process. This parameter shifts only 0.5 K for each K of warming of the oceans. As a result the frequency of DCC is expected to increases by the end of this century by about 50% above the current frequency.

Radioactivity in the ocean: laws and biological effects

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hunsaker, C.T.

1985-01-01

This paper summarizes the literature on US laws and international agreements, experimental and monitoring data, and ongoing studies to provide background information for environmental assessment and regulatory compliance activities for ocean dumping of low-level radioactive waste. The Marine Protection, Research, and Sanctuaries Act is the major US legislation governing ocean disposal of radioactive waste. The major international agreement on ocean dumping is the Convention on the Prevention of Marine Pollution by Dumping of Wastes and other Matter. The United States ended its ocean dumping of radioactive wastes in 1970, but other countries have continued ocean dumping under international supervision in the northeast Atlantic. Monitoring of former US disposal sites has neither revealed significant effects on marine biota nor indicated a hazard to human health. Also, no effects on marine organisms have been found that could be attributed to routine discharges into the Irish Sea from the Windscale reprocessing plant. We must improve our ability to predict the oceanic carrying capacity and the fate and effects of ionizing radiation in the marine environment.

Isotope composition and volume of Earth's early oceans.

Science.gov (United States)

Pope, Emily C; Bird, Dennis K; Rosing, Minik T

2012-03-20

Oxygen and hydrogen isotope compositions of Earth's seawater are controlled by volatile fluxes among mantle, lithospheric (oceanic and continental crust), and atmospheric reservoirs. Throughout geologic time the oxygen mass budget was likely conserved within these Earth system reservoirs, but hydrogen's was not, as it can escape to space. Isotopic properties of serpentine from the approximately 3.8 Ga Isua Supracrustal Belt in West Greenland are used to characterize hydrogen and oxygen isotope compositions of ancient seawater. Archaean oceans were depleted in deuterium [expressed as δD relative to Vienna standard mean ocean water (VSMOW)] by at most 25 ± 5‰, but oxygen isotope ratios were comparable to modern oceans. Mass balance of the global hydrogen budget constrains the contribution of continental growth and planetary hydrogen loss to the secular evolution of hydrogen isotope ratios in Earth's oceans. Our calculations predict that the oceans of early Earth were up to 26% more voluminous, and atmospheric CH(4) and CO(2) concentrations determined from limits on hydrogen escape to space are consistent with clement conditions on Archaean Earth.

Radioactivity in the ocean: laws and biological effects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hunsaker, C.T.

1985-01-01

This paper summarizes the literature on US laws and international agreements, experimental and monitoring data, and ongoing studies to provide background information for environmental assessment and regulatory compliance activities for ocean dumping of low-level radioactive waste. The Marine Protection, Research, and Sanctuaries Act is the major US legislation governing ocean disposal of radioactive waste. The major international agreement on ocean dumping is the Convention on the Prevention of Marine Pollution by Dumping of Wastes and other Matter. The United States ended its ocean dumping of radioactive wastes in 1970, but other countries have continued ocean dumping under international supervision in the northeast Atlantic. Monitoring of former US disposal sites has neither revealed significant effects on marine biota nor indicated a hazard to human health. Also, no effects on marine organisms have been found that could be attributed to routine discharges into the Irish Sea from the Windscale reprocessing plant. We must improve our ability to predict the oceanic carrying capacity and the fate and effects of ionizing radiation in the marine environment

Ocean forecasting in terrain-following coordinates: Formulation and skill assessment of the Regional Ocean Modeling System

Science.gov (United States)

Haidvogel, D.B.; Arango, H.; Budgell, W.P.; Cornuelle, B.D.; Curchitser, E.; Di, Lorenzo E.; Fennel, K.; Geyer, W.R.; Hermann, A.J.; Lanerolle, L.; Levin, J.; McWilliams, J.C.; Miller, A.J.; Moore, A.M.; Powell, T.M.; Shchepetkin, A.F.; Sherwood, C.R.; Signell, R.P.; Warner, J.C.; Wilkin, J.

2008-01-01

Systematic improvements in algorithmic design of regional ocean circulation models have led to significant enhancement in simulation ability across a wide range of space/time scales and marine system types. As an example, we briefly review the Regional Ocean Modeling System, a member of a general class of three-dimensional, free-surface, terrain-following numerical models. Noteworthy characteristics of the ROMS computational kernel include: consistent temporal averaging of the barotropic mode to guarantee both exact conservation and constancy preservation properties for tracers; redefined barotropic pressure-gradient terms to account for local variations in the density field; vertical interpolation performed using conservative parabolic splines; and higher-order, quasi-monotone advection algorithms. Examples of quantitative skill assessment are shown for a tidally driven estuary, an ice-covered high-latitude sea, a wind- and buoyancy-forced continental shelf, and a mid-latitude ocean basin. The combination of moderate-order spatial approximations, enhanced conservation properties, and quasi-monotone advection produces both more robust and accurate, and less diffusive, solutions than those produced in earlier terrain-following ocean models. Together with advanced methods of data assimilation and novel observing system technologies, these capabilities constitute the necessary ingredients for multi-purpose regional ocean prediction systems. 

Effects of dynamic long-period ocean tides on changes in earth's rotation rate

Science.gov (United States)

Nam, Young; Dickman, S. R.

1990-01-01

As a generalization of the zonal response coefficient first introduced by Agnew and Farrell (1978), the zonal response function kappa of the solid earth-ocean system is defined as the ratio, in the frequency domain, of the tidal change in earth's rotation rate to the tide-generating potential. Amplitudes and phases of kappa for the monthly, fortnightly, and nine-day lunar tides are estimated from 2 1/2 years of VLBI UT1 observations, corrected for atmospheric angular momentum effects using NMC wind and pressure series. Using the dynamic ocean tide model of Dickman (1988, 1989), amplitudes and phases of kappa for an elastic earth-ocean system are predicted. The predictions confirm earlier results which found that dynamic effects of the longer-period ocean tides reduce the amplitude of kappa by about 1 percent.

Ocean Modeling and Visualization on Massively Parallel Computer

Science.gov (United States)

Chao, Yi; Li, P. Peggy; Wang, Ping; Katz, Daniel S.; Cheng, Benny N.

1997-01-01

Climate modeling is one of the grand challenges of computational science, and ocean modeling plays an important role in both understanding the current climatic conditions and predicting future climate change.

Deep ocean model penetrator experiments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Freeman, T.J.; Burdett, J.R.F.

1986-01-01

Preliminary trials of experimental model penetrators in the deep ocean have been conducted as an international collaborative exercise by participating members (national bodies and the CEC) of the Engineering Studies Task Group of the Nuclear Energy Agency's Seabed Working Group. This report describes and gives the results of these experiments, which were conducted at two deep ocean study areas in the Atlantic: Great Meteor East and the Nares Abyssal Plain. Velocity profiles of penetrators of differing dimensions and weights have been determined as they free-fell through the water column and impacted the sediment. These velocity profiles are used to determine the final embedment depth of the penetrators and the resistance to penetration offered by the sediment. The results are compared with predictions of embedment depth derived from elementary models of a penetrator impacting with a sediment. It is tentatively concluded that once the resistance to penetration offered by a sediment at a particular site has been determined, this quantity can be used to sucessfully predict the embedment that penetrators of differing sizes and weights would achieve at the same site

Plutonium chemistry of the ocean

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Folsom, T.R.

1972-01-01

Plutonium is a man-made element whose behavior in the marine environment is inadequately known at present. It has been studied intensively in connection with production of weapons and power sources and has been characterized as an extremely toxic substance. Nevertheless, only a few dozen measurements have been made of concentrations in seawater and in the associated organisms and sediments. The first of these were as recent as 1964. There are reasons to believe its chemical behavior in the ocean is different from what has been observed on land, and that it will be difficult to predict how plutonium will distribute itself in the ocean. The consequences of increased environmental concentrations of Pu are discussed

75 FR 18778 - Safety Zone; Ocean City Air Show 2010, Atlantic Ocean, Ocean City, MD

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-13

...-AA00 Safety Zone; Ocean City Air Show 2010, Atlantic Ocean, Ocean City, MD AGENCY: Coast Guard, DHS... zone on the Atlantic Ocean in the vicinity of Ocean City, Maryland to support the Ocean City Air Show. This action is intended to restrict vessel traffic movement on the Atlantic Ocean to protect mariners...

Oceanic conditions and their variations affecting behavior of radionuclides in marine environment off Aomori prefecture

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shima, Shigeki

2009-01-01

In order to elucidate the behavior of radioactive nuclides liberated from the Rokkasho reprocessing plant into the ocean, the characteristics of oceanic region around this plant were clarified by the measurements of oceanic circulation, flow rate and its seasonal variation. Further the computer simulation model for the reconstruction and prediction of oceanic conditions off Rokkasho was prepared. The whole image on this oceanic region was therefore reconstructed using this model. (M.H.)

The great challenges in Arctic Ocean paleoceanography

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stein, Ruediger

2011-01-01

Despite the importance of the Arctic in the climate system, the data base we have from this area is still very weak, and large parts of the climate history have not been recovered at all in sedimentary sections. In order to fill this gap in knowledge, international, multidisciplinary expeditions and projects for scientific drilling/coring in the Arctic Ocean are needed. Key areas and approaches for drilling and recovering undisturbed and complete sedimentary sequences are depth transects across the major ocean ridge systems, i.e., the Lomonosov Ridge, the Alpha-Mendeleev Ridge, and the Chukchi Plateau/Northwind Ridge, the Beaufort, Kara and Laptev sea continental margins, as well as the major Arctic gateways towards the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. The new detailed climate records from the Arctic Ocean spanning time intervals from the Late Cretaceous/Paleogene Greenhouse world to the Neogene-Quaternary Icehouse world and representing short- and long-term climate variability on scales from 10 to 10 6 years, will give new insights into our understanding of the Arctic Ocean within the global climate system and provide an opportunity to test the performance of climate models used to predict future climate change. With this, studying the Arctic Ocean is certainly one of the major challenges in climate research for the coming decades.

Size structures sensory hierarchy in ocean life

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Martens, Erik Andreas; Wadhwa, Navish; Jacobsen, Nis Sand

2015-01-01

Life in the ocean is shaped by the trade-off between a need to encounter other organisms for feeding or mating, and to avoid encounters with predators. Avoiding or achieving encounters necessitates an efficient means of collecting the maximum possible information from the surroundings through...... predict the body size limits for various sensory modes, which align very well with size ranges found in literature. The treatise of all ocean life, from unicellular organisms to whales, demonstrates how body size determines available sensing modes, and thereby acts as a major structuring factor of aquatic...

Investigating Undergraduate Science Students’ Conceptions and Misconceptions of Ocean Acidification

Science.gov (United States)

Danielson, Kathryn I.; Tanner, Kimberly D.

2015-01-01

Scientific research exploring ocean acidification has grown significantly in past decades. However, little science education research has investigated the extent to which undergraduate science students understand this topic. Of all undergraduate students, one might predict science students to be best able to understand ocean acidification. What conceptions and misconceptions of ocean acidification do these students hold? How does their awareness and knowledge compare across disciplines? Undergraduate biology, chemistry/biochemistry, and environmental studies students, and science faculty for comparison, were assessed on their awareness and understanding. Results revealed low awareness and understanding of ocean acidification among students compared with faculty. Compared with biology or chemistry/biochemistry students, more environmental studies students demonstrated awareness of ocean acidification and identified the key role of carbon dioxide. Novel misconceptions were also identified. These findings raise the question of whether undergraduate science students are prepared to navigate socioenvironmental issues such as ocean acidification. PMID:26163563

The Navy’s Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean-Wave Prediction System

Science.gov (United States)

2011-04-15

7300 Security, Code 1226 Office of Counsel,Code 1008.3 ADOR/Director NCST E. R. Franchi , 7000 Public Affairs (Unclassified/ Unlimited Only...Office as both a global model and relocatable regional model. The wave components of the system are run operationally at production centers at both...utilizes meteorological observations including radiosondes, satellite data, ship reports, and ocean observations with time-dependent global

The Change in Oceanic O2 Inventory Associated with Recent Global Warming

Science.gov (United States)

Keeling, Ralph; Garcia, Hernan

2002-01-01

Oceans general circulation models predict that global warming may cause a decrease in the oceanic O2 inventory and an associated O2 outgassing. An independent argument is presented here in support of this prediction based on observational evidence of the ocean's biogeochemical response to natural warming. On time scales from seasonal to centennial, natural O2 flux/heat flux ratios are shown to occur in a range of 2 to 10 nmol O2 per Joule of warming, with larger ratios typically occurring at higher latitudes and over longer time scales. The ratios are several times larger than would be expected solely from the effect of heating on the O2 solubility, indicating that most of the O2 exchange is biologically mediated through links between heating and stratification. The change in oceanic O2 inventory through the 1990's is estimated to be 0.3 - 0.4 x 10(exp 14) mol O2 per year based on scaling the observed anomalous long-term ocean warming by natural O2 flux/heating ratios and allowing for uncertainty due to decadal variability. Implications are discussed for carbon budgets based on observed changes in atmospheric O2/N2 ratio and based on observed changes in ocean dissolved inorganic carbon.

Evidence for the role of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and the ocean heat uptake in hiatus prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Pasini, Antonello; Triacca, Umberto; Attanasio, Alessandro

2017-08-01

The recent hiatus in global temperature at the surface has been analysed by several studies, mainly using global climate models. The common accepted picture is that since the late 1990s, the increase in anthropogenic radiative forcings has been counterbalanced by other factors, e.g., a decrease in natural forcings, augmented ocean heat storage and negative phases of ocean-atmosphere-coupled oscillation patterns. Here, simple vector autoregressive models are used for forecasting the temperature hiatus in the period 2001-2014. This gives new insight into the problem of understanding the ocean contribution (in terms of heat uptake and atmosphere-ocean-coupled oscillations) to the appearance of this recent hiatus. In particular, considering data about the ocean heat content until a depth of 700 m and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation is necessary for correctly forecasting the hiatus, so catching both trend and interannual variability. Our models also show that the ocean heat uptake is substantially driven by the natural component of the total radiative forcing at a decadal time scale, confining the importance of the anthropogenic influences to a longer range warming of the ocean.

Fugitive carbon dioxide: It's not hiding in the ocean

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kerr, R.A.

1992-01-01

The fugitive carbon is the difference between the 7 billion or so tons that spew as carbon dioxide from smokestacks and burning tropical forests and the 3.4 billion tons known to stay in the atmosphere. Finding the other 3 billion or 4 billion tons has frustrated researchers for the past 15 years. The oceans certainly take up some of it. Any forecast of global warming has to be based on how much of the carbon dioxide released by human activity will remain in the atmosphere, and predictions vary by 30% depending on the mix of oceanic and terrestrial processes assumed to be removing the gas. What's more, those predictions assume that the processes at work today will go on operating. But not knowing where all the carbon is going raises the unnerving possibility that whatever processes are removing it may soon fall down on the job without warning, accelerating any warming. Such concerns add urgency to the question of whether the ocean harbors the missing carbon. But there's no simple way to find out. The obvious strategy might seem to be to measure the carbon content of the ocean repeatedly to see how much it increases year by year. The trouble is that several billion tons of added carbon, though impressive on a human scale, are undetectable against the huge swings in ocean carbon that occur from season to season, year to year, and place to place

The Second International Indian Ocean Expedition (IIOE-2)

Science.gov (United States)

Cowie, Greg; Hood, Raleigh

2015-04-01

The International Indian Ocean Expedition (IIOE) was one of the greatest international, interdisciplinary oceanographic research efforts of all time. Planning for the IIOE began in 1959 and the project officially continued through 1965, with forty-six research vessels participating under fourteen different flags. The IIOE motivated an unprecedented number of hydrographic surveys (and repeat surveys) over the course of the expedition covering the entire Indian Ocean basin. And it was an interdisciplinary endeavor that embraced physical oceanography, chemical oceanography, meteorology, marine biology, marine geology and geophysics. The end of 2015 will mark the 50th Anniversary of the completion of the IIOE. SCOR and the IOC are working to stimulate a new phase of coordinated international research focused on the Indian Ocean for a 5-year period beginning in late 2015 and continuing through 2020. The goal is to help to organize ongoing research and stimulate new initiatives in the 2015-2020 time frame as part of a larger expedition. Several International programs that have research ongoing or planned in the Indian Ocean during this time period and many countries are planning cruises in this time frame as well. These programs and national cruises will serve as a core for the new Indian Ocean research focus, which has been dubbed "IIOE-2." The overarching goal of the IIOE-2 is to advance our understanding of interactions between geological, oceanic and atmospheric processes that give rise to the complex physical dynamics of the Indian Ocean region, and to determine how those dynamics affect climate, extreme events, marine biogeochemical cycles, ecosystems and human populations. This understanding is required to predict the impacts of climate change, pollution, and increased fish harvesting on the Indian Ocean and its nations, as well as the influence of the Indian Ocean on other components of the Earth System. New understanding is also fundamental to policy makers for

Impacts of ocean acidification on marine seafood.

Science.gov (United States)

Branch, Trevor A; DeJoseph, Bonnie M; Ray, Liza J; Wagner, Cherie A

2013-03-01

Ocean acidification is a series of chemical reactions due to increased CO(2) emissions. The resulting lower pH impairs the senses of reef fishes and reduces their survival, and might similarly impact commercially targeted fishes that produce most of the seafood eaten by humans. Shelled molluscs will also be negatively affected, whereas cephalopods and crustaceans will remain largely unscathed. Habitat changes will reduce seafood production from coral reefs, but increase production from seagrass and seaweed. Overall effects of ocean acidification on primary productivity and, hence, on food webs will result in hard-to-predict winners and losers. Although adaptation, parental effects, and evolution can mitigate some effects of ocean acidification, future seafood platters will look rather different unless CO(2) emissions are curbed. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate, carbon cycling, and deep-ocean ecosystems.

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, K L; Ruhl, H A; Bett, B J; Billett, D S M; Lampitt, R S; Kaufmann, R S

2009-11-17

Climate variation affects surface ocean processes and the production of organic carbon, which ultimately comprises the primary food supply to the deep-sea ecosystems that occupy approximately 60% of the Earth's surface. Warming trends in atmospheric and upper ocean temperatures, attributed to anthropogenic influence, have occurred over the past four decades. Changes in upper ocean temperature influence stratification and can affect the availability of nutrients for phytoplankton production. Global warming has been predicted to intensify stratification and reduce vertical mixing. Research also suggests that such reduced mixing will enhance variability in primary production and carbon export flux to the deep sea. The dependence of deep-sea communities on surface water production has raised important questions about how climate change will affect carbon cycling and deep-ocean ecosystem function. Recently, unprecedented time-series studies conducted over the past two decades in the North Pacific and the North Atlantic at >4,000-m depth have revealed unexpectedly large changes in deep-ocean ecosystems significantly correlated to climate-driven changes in the surface ocean that can impact the global carbon cycle. Climate-driven variation affects oceanic communities from surface waters to the much-overlooked deep sea and will have impacts on the global carbon cycle. Data from these two widely separated areas of the deep ocean provide compelling evidence that changes in climate can readily influence deep-sea processes. However, the limited geographic coverage of these existing time-series studies stresses the importance of developing a more global effort to monitor deep-sea ecosystems under modern conditions of rapidly changing climate.

Predictability over the North Atlantic ocean in hindcast ensembles of MPI-ESM initialized by EnKF and three nudging systems

Science.gov (United States)

Brune, Sebastian; Pohlmann, Holger; Düsterhus, Andre; Kröger, Jürgen; Müller, Wolfgang; Baehr, Johanna

2016-04-01

We investigate hindcast skill for surface air temperature and upper ocean heat content (0-700m) in the North Atlantic for yearly mean values from 1960 to 2014 in four prediction systems based on the global coupled Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). We find that in the North Atlantic and within the four prediction systems under consideration only the EnKF initialized hindcasts reproduce the variability of the reference data well both in terms of anomaly correlation and representation of the probability density function. The systems under consideration only differ in the method how they incorporate surface and sub-surface oceanic temperatures and salinities during assimilation: ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF), anomaly nudging of ORA reanalysis (BS-1), full field nudging of ORA and GECCO reanalysis, respectively (PT-ORA, PT-GEC). We assess the hindcast skill of each prediction system with reference to HadCRUT4 near surface air temperature data (Morice et al. 2012) and NOAA OC5 upper ocean heat content data (Levitus et al. 2012) using anomaly correlation (ACC) and by analysing the interquartile range (IQR) of the probability density function (PDF). Firstly, we calculate hindcast skill in terms of ACC and IQR against reference data over the whole time period. Here, the hindcast skills of EnKF and BS-1 are better for both ACC and IQR in lead years 2 to 5 when compared to PT-ORA and PT-GEC, their hindcast skill drops off after lead year 1. Secondly, the PDF of the reference data is not uniformly distributed over time. We therefore calculate ACC and IQR for a 20 year moving window. We find hindcast skill in terms of ACC for EnKF and BS-1 in the 1960s and from the 1990s onwards, up to eight lead years in advance, with almost no skill for the time period inbetween. In contrast, there is no skill for PT-ORA and PT-GEC in any period after lead year one. The IQR of reference data is best captured by the EnKF, in the 1960s and 1990s up to lead year

Surface drift prediction in the Adriatic Sea using hyper-ensemble statistics on atmospheric, ocean and wave models: Uncertainties and probability distribution areas

Science.gov (United States)

Rixen, M.; Ferreira-Coelho, E.; Signell, R.

2008-01-01

Despite numerous and regular improvements in underlying models, surface drift prediction in the ocean remains a challenging task because of our yet limited understanding of all processes involved. Hence, deterministic approaches to the problem are often limited by empirical assumptions on underlying physics. Multi-model hyper-ensemble forecasts, which exploit the power of an optimal local combination of available information including ocean, atmospheric and wave models, may show superior forecasting skills when compared to individual models because they allow for local correction and/or bias removal. In this work, we explore in greater detail the potential and limitations of the hyper-ensemble method in the Adriatic Sea, using a comprehensive surface drifter database. The performance of the hyper-ensembles and the individual models are discussed by analyzing associated uncertainties and probability distribution maps. Results suggest that the stochastic method may reduce position errors significantly for 12 to 72??h forecasts and hence compete with pure deterministic approaches. ?? 2007 NATO Undersea Research Centre (NURC).

A distributed atmosphere-sea ice-ocean observatory in the central Arctic Ocean: concept and first results

Science.gov (United States)

Hoppmann, Mario; Nicolaus, Marcel; Rabe, Benjamin; Wenzhöfer, Frank; Katlein, Christian; Scholz, Daniel; Valcic, Lovro

2017-04-01

To understand the current evolution of the Arctic Ocean towards a less extensive, thinner and younger sea ice cover is one of the biggest challenges in climate research. Especially the lack of simultaneous in-situ observations of sea ice, ocean and atmospheric properties leads to significant knowledge gaps in their complex interactions, and how the associated processes impact the polar marine ecosystem. Here we present a concept for the implementation of a long-term strategy to monitor the most essential climate- and ecosystem parameters in the central Arctic Ocean, year round and synchronously. The basis of this strategy is the development and enhancement of a number of innovative autonomous observational platforms, such as rugged weather stations, ice mass balance buoys, ice-tethered bio-optical buoys and upper ocean profilers. The deployment of those complementing platforms in a distributed network enables the simultaneous collection of physical and biogeochemical in-situ data on basin scales and year round, including the largely undersampled winter periods. A key advantage over other observatory systems is that the data is sent via satellite in near-real time, contributing to numerical weather predictions through the Global Telecommunication System (GTS) and to the International Arctic Buoy Programme (IABP). The first instruments were installed on ice floes in the Eurasian Basin in spring 2015 and 2016, yielding exceptional records of essential climate- and ecosystem-relevant parameters in one of the most inaccessible regions of this planet. Over the next 4 years, and including the observational periods of the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP, 2017-2019) and the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of the Arctic Climate (MOSAiC, 2020), the distributed observatory will be maintained by deployment of additional instruments in the central Arctic each year, benefitting from international logistical efforts.

Effects of Ocean Ecosystem on Marine Aerosol-Cloud Interaction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nicholas Meskhidze

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Using satellite data for the surface ocean, aerosol optical depth (AOD, and cloud microphysical parameters, we show that statistically significant positive correlations exist between ocean ecosystem productivity, the abundance of submicron aerosols, and cloud microphysical properties over different parts of the remote oceans. The correlation coefficient for remotely sensed surface chlorophyll a concentration ([Chl-a] and liquid cloud effective radii over productive areas of the oceans varies between −0.2 and −0.6. Special attention is given to identifying (and addressing problems from correlation analysis used in the previous studies that can lead to erroneous conclusions. A new approach (using the difference between retrieved AOD and predicted sea salt aerosol optical depth, AODdiff is developed to explore causal links between ocean physical and biological systems and the abundance of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN in the remote marine atmosphere. We have found that over multiple time periods, 550 nm AODdiff (sensitive to accumulation mode aerosol, which is the prime contributor to CCN correlates well with [Chl-a] over the productive waters of the Southern Ocean. Since [Chl-a] can be used as a proxy of ocean biological productivity, our analysis demonstrates the role of ocean ecology in contributing CCN, thus shaping the microphysical properties of low-level marine clouds.

Impacts of Ocean Acidification

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bijma, Jelle (Alfred Wegener Inst., D-27570 Bremerhaven (Germany)) (and others)

2009-08-15

There is growing scientific evidence that, as a result of increasing anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) emissions, absorption of CO{sub 2} by the oceans has already noticeably increased the average oceanic acidity from pre-industrial levels. This global threat requires a global response. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), continuing CO{sub 2} emissions in line with current trends could make the oceans up to 150% more acidic by 2100 than they were at the beginning of the Anthropocene. Acidification decreases the ability of the ocean to absorb additional atmospheric CO{sub 2}, which implies that future CO{sub 2} emissions are likely to lead to more rapid global warming. Ocean acidification is also problematic because of its negative effects on marine ecosystems, especially marine calcifying organisms, and marine resources and services upon which human societies largely depend such as energy, water, and fisheries. For example, it is predicted that by 2100 around 70% of all cold-water corals, especially those in the higher latitudes, will live in waters undersaturated in carbonate due to ocean acidification. Recent research indicates that ocean acidification might also result in increasing levels of jellyfish in some marine ecosystems. Aside from direct effects, ocean acidification together with other global change-induced impacts such as marine and coastal pollution and the introduction of invasive alien species are likely to result in more fragile marine ecosystems, making them more vulnerable to other environmental impacts resulting from, for example, coastal deforestation and widescale fisheries. The Marine Board-ESF Position Paper on the Impacts of Climate Change on the European Marine and Coastal Environment - Ecosystems indicated that presenting ocean acidification issues to policy makers is a key issue and challenge. Indeed, as the consequences of ocean acidification are expected to emerge rapidly and drastically, but are

Forecast skill score assessment of a relocatable ocean prediction system, using a simplified objective analysis method

Science.gov (United States)

Onken, Reiner

2017-11-01

A relocatable ocean prediction system (ROPS) was employed to an observational data set which was collected in June 2014 in the waters to the west of Sardinia (western Mediterranean) in the framework of the REP14-MED experiment. The observational data, comprising more than 6000 temperature and salinity profiles from a fleet of underwater gliders and shipborne probes, were assimilated in the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS), which is the heart of ROPS, and verified against independent observations from ScanFish tows by means of the forecast skill score as defined by Murphy(1993). A simplified objective analysis (OA) method was utilised for assimilation, taking account of only those profiles which were located within a predetermined time window W. As a result of a sensitivity study, the highest skill score was obtained for a correlation length scale C = 12.5 km, W = 24 h, and r = 1, where r is the ratio between the error of the observations and the background error, both for temperature and salinity. Additional ROPS runs showed that (i) the skill score of assimilation runs was mostly higher than the score of a control run without assimilation, (i) the skill score increased with increasing forecast range, and (iii) the skill score for temperature was higher than the score for salinity in the majority of cases. Further on, it is demonstrated that the vast number of observations can be managed by the applied OA method without data reduction, enabling timely operational forecasts even on a commercially available personal computer or a laptop.

Ocean Acidification and the End-Permian Mass Extinction: To What Extent does Evidence Support Hypothesis?

OpenAIRE

Kershaw, Stephen; Crasquin, Sylvie; Li, Yue; Collin, Pierre-Yves; Forel, Marie-Béatrice

2012-01-01

Ocean acidification in modern oceans is linked to rapid increase in atmospheric CO2, raising concern about marine diversity, food security and ecosystem services. Proxy evidence for acidification during past crises may help predict future change, but three issues limit confidence of comparisons between modern and ancient ocean acidification, illustrated from the end-Permian extinction, 252 million years ago: (1) problems with evidence for ocean acidification preserved in sedimentary rocks, wh...

Ocean Acidification and the End-Permian Mass Extinction: To What Extent does Evidence Support Hypothesis?

OpenAIRE

Kershaw , Stephen; Crasquin , Sylvie; Li , Yue; Collin , Pierre-Yves; Forel , Marie-Béatrice

2012-01-01

International audience; Ocean acidification in modern oceans is linked to rapid increase in atmospheric CO 2 , raising concern about marine diversity, food security and ecosystem services. Proxy evidence for acidification during past crises may help predict future change, but three issues limit confidence of comparisons between modern and ancient ocean acidification, illustrated from the end-Permian extinction, 252 million years ago: (1) problems with evidence for ocean acidification preserve...

Estimating the Economic Benefits of Regional Ocean Observing Systems

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Kite-Powell, Hauke L; Colgan, Charles S; Wellman, Katharine F; Pelsoci, Thomas; Wieand, Kenneth; Pendleton, Linwood; Kaiser, Mark J; Pulsipher, Allan G; Luger, Michael

2005-01-01

... prediction, offshore energy, power generation, and commercial fishing. Our findings suggest that annual benefits to users from the deployment of ocean observing systems are likely to run in the multiple...

Excitation of the Earth's Chandler wobble by a turbulent oceanic double-gyre

Science.gov (United States)

Naghibi, S. E.; Jalali, M. A.; Karabasov, S. A.; Alam, M.-R.

2017-04-01

We develop a layer-averaged, multiple-scale spectral ocean model and show how an oceanic double-gyre can communicate with the Earth's Chandler wobble. The overall transfers of energy and angular momentum from the double-gyre to the Chandler wobble are used to calibrate the turbulence parameters of the layer-averaged model. Our model is tested against a multilayer quasi-geostrophic ocean model in turbulent regime, and base states used in parameter identification are obtained from mesoscale eddy resolving numerical simulations. The Chandler wobble excitation function obtained from the model predicts a small role of North Atlantic ocean region on the wobble dynamics as compared to all oceans, in agreement with the existing observations.

Introduction to Special Section on Oceanic Responses and Feedbacks to Tropical Cyclones

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Lei; Chen, Dake; Karnauskas, Kristopher B.; Wang, Chunzai; Lei, Xiaotu; Wang, Wei; Wang, Guihua; Han, Guijun

2018-02-01

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the most destructive natural hazards on Earth. The ocean can have dramatic responses to TCs and further imposes significant feedbacks to the atmosphere. A comprehensive understanding of the ocean-TC interaction is a challenging hindrance for improving the simulation and prediction of TCs and therefore avoidance of human and economic losses. A special section of JGR-Oceans was thus organized, in order to have a broad summary of latest progress in ocean-TC interactions. This introduction presents a brief overview of the contributions found in this collection. We hope it can also shed light on recent advance and future challenges in the studies on the oceanic responses and feedbacks to TCs.

The global marine phosphorus cycle: sensitivity to oceanic circulation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. P. Slomp

2007-01-01

Full Text Available A new mass balance model for the coupled marine cycles of phosphorus (P and carbon (C is used to examine the relationships between oceanic circulation, primary productivity, and sedimentary burial of reactive P and particulate organic C (POC, on geological time scales. The model explicitly represents the exchanges of water and particulate matter between the continental shelves and the open ocean, and it accounts for the redox-dependent burial of POC and the various forms of reactive P (iron(III-bound P, particulate organic P (POP, authigenic calcium phosphate, and fish debris. Steady state and transient simulations indicate that a slowing down of global ocean circulation decreases primary production in the open ocean, but increases that in the coastal ocean. The latter is due to increased transfer of soluble P from deep ocean water to the shelves, where it fuels primary production and causes increased reactive P burial. While authigenic calcium phosphate accounts for most reactive P burial ocean-wide, enhanced preservation of fish debris may become an important reactive P sink in deep-sea sediments during periods of ocean anoxia. Slower ocean circulation globally increases POC burial, because of enhanced POC preservation under anoxia in deep-sea depositional environments and higher primary productivity along the continental margins. In accordance with geological evidence, the model predicts increased accumulation of reactive P on the continental shelves during and following periods of ocean anoxia.

A comparison of the performance of the 3-D super-ensemble and an ensemble Kalman filter for short-range regional ocean prediction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Baptiste Mourre

2014-01-01

Full Text Available This study compares the ability of two approaches integrating models and data to forecast the Ligurian Sea regional oceanographic conditions in the short-term range (0–72 hours when constrained by a common observation dataset. The post-processing 3-D super-ensemble (3DSE algorithm, which uses observations to optimally combine multi-model forecasts into a single prediction of the oceanic variable, is first considered. The 3DSE predictive skills are compared to those of the Regional Ocean Modeling System model in which observations are assimilated through a more conventional ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF approach. Assimilated measurements include sea surface temperature maps, and temperature and salinity subsurface observations from a fleet of five underwater gliders. Retrospective analyses are carried out to produce daily predictions during the 11-d period of the REP10 sea trial experiment. The forecast skill evaluation based on a distributed multi-sensor validation dataset indicates an overall superior performance of the EnKF, both at the surface and at depth. While the 3DSE and EnKF perform comparably well in the area spanned by the incorporated measurements, the 3DSE accuracy is found to rapidly decrease outside this area. In particular, the univariate formulation of the method combined with the absence of regular surface salinity measurements produces large errors in the 3DSE salinity forecast. On the contrary, the EnKF leads to more homogeneous forecast errors over the modelling domain for both temperature and salinity. The EnKF is found to consistently improve the predictions with respect to the control solution without assimilation and to be positively skilled when compared to the climatological estimate. For typical regional oceanographic applications with scarce subsurface observations, the lack of physical spatial and multivariate error covariances applicable to the individual model weights in the 3DSE formulation constitutes a major

The prediction of surface temperature in the new seasonal prediction system based on the MPI-ESM coupled climate model

Science.gov (United States)

Baehr, J.; Fröhlich, K.; Botzet, M.; Domeisen, D. I. V.; Kornblueh, L.; Notz, D.; Piontek, R.; Pohlmann, H.; Tietsche, S.; Müller, W. A.

2015-05-01

A seasonal forecast system is presented, based on the global coupled climate model MPI-ESM as used for CMIP5 simulations. We describe the initialisation of the system and analyse its predictive skill for surface temperature. The presented system is initialised in the atmospheric, oceanic, and sea ice component of the model from reanalysis/observations with full field nudging in all three components. For the initialisation of the ensemble, bred vectors with a vertically varying norm are implemented in the ocean component to generate initial perturbations. In a set of ensemble hindcast simulations, starting each May and November between 1982 and 2010, we analyse the predictive skill. Bias-corrected ensemble forecasts for each start date reproduce the observed surface temperature anomalies at 2-4 months lead time, particularly in the tropics. Niño3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies show a small root-mean-square error and predictive skill up to 6 months. Away from the tropics, predictive skill is mostly limited to the ocean, and to regions which are strongly influenced by ENSO teleconnections. In summary, the presented seasonal prediction system based on a coupled climate model shows predictive skill for surface temperature at seasonal time scales comparable to other seasonal prediction systems using different underlying models and initialisation strategies. As the same model underlying our seasonal prediction system—with a different initialisation—is presently also used for decadal predictions, this is an important step towards seamless seasonal-to-decadal climate predictions.

Ocean disposal of heat generating radioactive waste

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1985-11-01

The detailed radiological assessment of any proposed operations for the disposal of heat-generating radioactive waste in deep ocean sediments would require data describing expected embedment depths and spacing of the waste. In this study a theoretical model which predicts penetrator trajectories from launch through to rest in the sediment has been produced and has been used to generate data for environmental models. The trajectory model has been used to study the effects of small imperfections and launch parameters on the motion of a reference penetrator through water and sediment. The model predicts that the horizontal displacements of the penetrators' final resting places in the sediment from their launch positions at the ocean surface could be limited to less than 15m by twisting their tail fins uniformly by just one degree to induce spinning. The reference penetrator is predicted to achieve satisfactory embedment depth for all the cases considered including allowance for the effect of curved penetration paths in the seabed. However, the ability of the model to represent highly non-linear sediment penetration paths is demonstrated. Distribution histograms of seabed impact points relative to specific release points are presented. The area of seabed required is calculated. (author)

Validation Test Report for the 1/8 deg Global Navy Coastal Ocean Model Nowcast/Forecast System

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Barron, Charlie N; Kara, A. B; Rhodes, Robert C; Rowley, Clark; Smedstad, Lucy F

2007-01-01

.... Global NCOM supports predictions of ocean currents, temperatures, salinity, sea surface height, and sound speed both directly and by providing initial and boundary conditions for higher-resolution nested ocean models...

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Cetacean and Sound Mapping Effort: Continuing Forward with an Integrated Ocean Noise Strategy.

Science.gov (United States)

Harrison, Jolie; Ferguson, Megan; Gedamke, Jason; Hatch, Leila; Southall, Brandon; Van Parijs, Sofie

2016-01-01

To help manage chronic and cumulative impacts of human activities on marine mammals, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) convened two working groups, the Underwater Sound Field Mapping Working Group (SoundMap) and the Cetacean Density and Distribution Mapping Working Group (CetMap), with overarching effort of both groups referred to as CetSound, which (1) mapped the predicted contribution of human sound sources to ocean noise and (2) provided region/time/species-specific cetacean density and distribution maps. Mapping products were presented at a symposium where future priorities were identified, including institutionalization/integration of the CetSound effort within NOAA-wide goals and programs, creation of forums and mechanisms for external input and funding, and expanded outreach/education. NOAA is subsequently developing an ocean noise strategy to articulate noise conservation goals and further identify science and management actions needed to support them.

Intraseasonal sea surface warming in the western Indian Ocean by oceanic equatorial Rossby waves

Science.gov (United States)

2017-05-09

USA, 2Naval Research Laboratory, Ocean Dynamics and Prediction Branch, Stennis Space Center, Hancock County, Mississippi, USA, 3Department of Physics ...IO and predominantly located south of the equator. The intraseasonal currents associated with downwelling ER waves act on the temperature gradient to...yield warm anomalies in the western IO, even in the presence of cooling by surface fluxes. The SST gradient is unique to the western IO and likely

Macroalgal spore dysfunction: ocean acidification delays and weakens adhesion.

Science.gov (United States)

Guenther, Rebecca; Miklasz, Kevin; Carrington, Emily; Martone, Patrick T

2018-04-01

Early life stages of marine organisms are predicted to be vulnerable to ocean acidification. For macroalgae, reproduction and population persistence rely on spores to settle, adhere and continue the algal life cycle, yet the effect of ocean acidification on this critical life stage has been largely overlooked. We explicitly tested the biomechanical impact of reduced pH on early spore adhesion. We developed a shear flume to examine the effect of reduced pH on spore attachment time and strength in two intertidal rhodophyte macroalgae, one calcified (Corallina vancouveriensis) and one noncalcified (Polyostea robusta). Reduced pH delayed spore attachment of both species by 40%-52% and weakened attachment strength in C. vancouveriensis, causing spores to dislodge at lower flow-induced shear forces, but had no effect on the attachment strength of P. robusta. Results are consistent with our prediction that reduced pH disrupts proper curing and gel formation of spore adhesives (anionic polysaccharides and glycoproteins) via protonation and cation displacement, although experimental verification is needed. Our results demonstrate that ocean acidification negatively, and differentially, impacts spore adhesion in two macroalgae. If results hold in field conditions, reduced ocean pH has the potential to impact macroalgal communities via spore dysfunction, regardless of the physiological tolerance of mature thalli. © 2017 Phycological Society of America.

Development and Implementation of Sargassum Early Advisory System (SEAS): Phase One By Brandon N. Hill Ocean and Coastal Resources bhill8901@yahoo.com Robert K. Webster Ph.D. Candidate, Marine Sciences Department captrwebster@aol.com Texas A & M University at Galveston P.O. Box 1675 Galveston, Texas 77553

Science.gov (United States)

Hill, B. N.; Webster, R.; Frazier, J.; Linton, T.

2013-12-01

Abstract: Sargassum is a crucial aspect of many oceanic and coastal environments. However, it can inundate a coast if the conditions permit excessive growth and landings. In nature this is not a detriment to the beaches, but actually serves to reduce erosion and provide nutrients. When beaches are relied upon to support the tourism industry abnormally excessive Sargassum landings can become an impediment. This creates a struggle between the environmental good of the beach and the economic good of the tourism industry. The Sargassum Early Advisory System (SEAS) Phase One focuses on increasing the efficiency of the current beach management practices. Phase One begins with the effort to employ NASA Landsat images as early warning devices of Sargassum's impending landfall. Oceanic currents as well as coastal wind patterns are hypothesized to be the primary drivers of Sargassum. The Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) as well as the Texas Automated Buoy System (TABS), Weatherbuoy, and beach cameras are used to receive real time data as well as future predictions to allow for the creation of accurate macroalgae forecasts. Landsat imagery has a sufficient resolution that slicks created by the Sargassum's disruption of the water surface can be differentiated. The Landsat's RGB array allows it to identify large Sargassum mats by a distinct green glow. The SEAS Team has created a 555 km X 516 km swath of monitoring that provides two to three week notices of eminent Sargasssum landfall. The remote sensing data is crosschecked with ground-truthing via mounted beach cameras and boating contacts. The SEAS Team creates advisories that are sent out to local beach managers and other stakeholders. These advisories allow for the beach managers to more efficiently allocate resources. If Sargassum is not observed in the Landsat images then beach managers are able to scale back the workforce and equipment committed to removing the Sargassum from the beach. If an excess of Sargassum is

Topographic control of oceanic flows in deep passages and straits

Science.gov (United States)

Whitehead, J. A.

1998-08-01

Saddle points between neighboring deep ocean basins are the sites of unidirectional flow from one basin to the next, depending on the source of bottom water. Flow in these sites appears to be topographically controlled so the interface between the bottom water and the water above adjusts itself to permit bottom water flow from the basin that contains a source of bottom water into the next. Examples in the Atlantic include flow in the Romanche Fracture Zone, the Vema Channel, the Ceara Abyssal Plain, the Anegada-Jungfern passage, and the Discovery Gap, but there are many more. Theoretical predictions of volume flux using a method that requires only conductivity-temperature-depth data archives and detailed knowledge of bathymetry near the saddle point are compared with volume flux estimates using current meters and/or geostrophic estimates for seven cases. The ratio of prediction to volume flux estimate ranges from 1.0 to 2.7. Some ocean straits that separate adjacent seas are also found to critically control bidirectional flows between basins. Theory of the influence of rotation on such critical flows is reviewed. Predictions of volume flux in eight cases are compared with ocean estimates of volume flux from traditional methods.

International organisation of ocean programs: Making a virtue of necessity

Science.gov (United States)

Mcewan, Angus

1992-01-01

When faced with the needs of climate prediction, a sharp contrast is revealed between existing networks for the observation of the atmosphere and for the ocean. Even the largest and longest-serving ocean data networks were created for their value to a specific user (usually with a defence, fishing or other maritime purpose) and the major compilations of historical data have needed extensive scientific input to reconcile the differences and deficiencies of the various sources. Vast amounts of such data remain inaccessible or unusable. Observations for research purposes have been generally short lived and funded on the basis of single initiatives. Even major programs such as FGGE, TOGA and WOCE have been driven by the dedicated interest of a surprisingly small number of individuals, and have been funded from a wide variety of temporary allocations. Recognising the global scale of ocean observations needed for climate research, international cooperation and coordination is an unavoidable necessity, resulting in the creation of such bodies as the Committee for Climatic Changes and the Ocean (CCCO), with the tasks of: (1) defining the scientific elements of research and ocean observation which meet the needs of climate prediction and amelioration; (2) translating these elements into terms of programs, projects or requirements that can be understood and participated in by individual nations and marine agencies; and (3) the sponsorship of specialist groups to facilitate the definition of research programs, the implementation of cooperative international activity and the dissemination of results.

Effects of Ocean Acidification on Phytoplankton Physiology and Nutrition for Fishery-based Food Webs

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Rising atmospheric concentrations of CO2 are predicted to decrease the pH of high-latitude oceans by 0.3–0.5 units by 2100. Because of their limited capacity for ion...

Geoengineering impact of open ocean dissolution of olivine on atmospheric CO2, surface ocean pH and marine biology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Köhler, Peter; Abrams, Jesse F; Völker, Christoph; Hauck, Judith; Wolf-Gladrow, Dieter A

2013-01-01

Ongoing global warming induced by anthropogenic emissions has opened the debate as to whether geoengineering is a ‘quick fix’ option. Here we analyse the intended and unintended effects of one specific geoengineering approach, which is enhanced weathering via the open ocean dissolution of the silicate-containing mineral olivine. This approach would not only reduce atmospheric CO 2 and oppose surface ocean acidification, but would also impact on marine biology. If dissolved in the surface ocean, olivine sequesters 0.28 g carbon per g of olivine dissolved, similar to land-based enhanced weathering. Silicic acid input, a byproduct of the olivine dissolution, alters marine biology because silicate is in certain areas the limiting nutrient for diatoms. As a consequence, our model predicts a shift in phytoplankton species composition towards diatoms, altering the biological carbon pumps. Enhanced olivine dissolution, both on land and in the ocean, therefore needs to be considered as ocean fertilization. From dissolution kinetics we calculate that only olivine particles with a grain size of the order of 1 μm sink slowly enough to enable a nearly complete dissolution. The energy consumption for grinding to this small size might reduce the carbon sequestration efficiency by ∼30%. (letter)

Impact of data assimilation on ocean current forecasts in the Angola Basin

Science.gov (United States)

Phillipson, Luke; Toumi, Ralf

2017-06-01

The ocean current predictability in the data limited Angola Basin was investigated using the Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS) with four-dimensional variational data assimilation. Six experiments were undertaken comprising a baseline case of the assimilation of salinity/temperature profiles and satellite sea surface temperature, with the subsequent addition of altimetry, OSCAR (satellite-derived sea surface currents), drifters, altimetry and drifters combined, and OSCAR and drifters combined. The addition of drifters significantly improves Lagrangian predictability in comparison to the baseline case as well as the addition of either altimetry or OSCAR. OSCAR assimilation only improves Lagrangian predictability as much as altimetry assimilation. On average the assimilation of either altimetry or OSCAR with drifter velocities does not significantly improve Lagrangian predictability compared to the drifter assimilation alone, even degrading predictability in some cases. When the forecast current speed is large, it is more likely that the combination improves trajectory forecasts. Conversely, when the currents are weaker, it is more likely that the combination degrades the trajectory forecast.

Divergent ecosystem responses within a benthic marine community to ocean acidification.

Science.gov (United States)

Kroeker, Kristy J; Micheli, Fiorenza; Gambi, Maria Cristina; Martz, Todd R

2011-08-30

Ocean acidification is predicted to impact all areas of the oceans and affect a diversity of marine organisms. However, the diversity of responses among species prevents clear predictions about the impact of acidification at the ecosystem level. Here, we used shallow water CO(2) vents in the Mediterranean Sea as a model system to examine emergent ecosystem responses to ocean acidification in rocky reef communities. We assessed in situ benthic invertebrate communities in three distinct pH zones (ambient, low, and extreme low), which differed in both the mean and variability of seawater pH along a continuous gradient. We found fewer taxa, reduced taxonomic evenness, and lower biomass in the extreme low pH zones. However, the number of individuals did not differ among pH zones, suggesting that there is density compensation through population blooms of small acidification-tolerant taxa. Furthermore, the trophic structure of the invertebrate community shifted to fewer trophic groups and dominance by generalists in extreme low pH, suggesting that there may be a simplification of food webs with ocean acidification. Despite high variation in individual species' responses, our findings indicate that ocean acidification decreases the diversity, biomass, and trophic complexity of benthic marine communities. These results suggest that a loss of biodiversity and ecosystem function is expected under extreme acidification scenarios.

Predicting dissolved lignin phenol concentrations in the coastal ocean from chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM absorption coefficients

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cédric G. Fichot

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Dissolved lignin is a well-established biomarker of terrigenous dissolved organic matter (DOM in the ocean, and a chromophoric component of DOM. Although evidence suggests there is a strong linkage between lignin concentrations and chromophoric DOM (CDOM absorption coefficients in coastal waters, the characteristics of this linkage and the existence of a relationship that is applicable across coastal oceans remain unclear. Here, 421 paired measurements of dissolved lignin concentrations (sum of 9 lignin phenols and CDOM absorption coefficients (ag(λ were used to examine their relationship along the river-ocean continuum (0-37 salinity and across contrasting coastal oceans (sub-tropical, temperate, high-latitude. Overall, lignin concentrations spanned four orders of magnitude and revealed a strong, non-linear relationship with ag(λ. The characteristics of the relationship (shape, wavelength dependency, lignin-composition dependency and evidence from degradation indicators were all consistent with lignin being an important driver of CDOM variability in coastal oceans, and suggested physical mixing and long-term photodegradation were important in shaping the relationship. These observations were used to develop two simple empirical models for estimating lignin concentrations from ag(λ with a +/- 20% error relative to measured values. The models are expected to be applicable in most coastal oceans influenced by terrigenous inputs.

Numerical studies on the interaction between atmosphere and ocean using different kinds of parallel computers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Soon-Hwan; Chino, Masamichi

2000-01-01

The coupling between atmosphere and ocean model has physical and computational difficulties for short-term forecasting of weather and ocean current. In this research, a combination system between high-resolution meso-scale atmospheric model and ocean model has been constructed using a new message-passing library, called Stampi (Seamless Thinking Aid Message Passing Interface), for prediction of particle dispersion at emergency nuclear accident. Stampi, which is based on the MPI (Message Passing Interface) 2 specification, makes us carry out parallel calculations of combination system without parallelization skill to model code. And it realizes dynamic process creation on different machines and communication between spawned one within the scope of MPI semantics. The models included in this combination system are PHYSIC as an atmosphere model, and POM (Princeton Ocean Model) as an ocean model. We applied this combination system to predict sea surface current at Sea of Japan in winter season. Simulation results indicate that the wind stress near the sea surface tends to be a predominant factor to determine surface ocean currents and dispersion of radioactive contamination in the ocean. The surface ocean current is well correspondent with wind direction, induced by high mountains at North Korea. The satellite data of NSCAT (NASA-SCATterometer), which is an image of sea surface current, also agrees well with the results of this system. (author)

Diversity and abundance of pteropods and heteropods along a latitudinal gradient across the Atlantic Ocean

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Burridge, A.K.; Goetze, E.; Wall-Palmer, D.; Le Double, S.L.; Huisman, J.; Peijnenburg, K.T.C.A.

2017-01-01

Shelled pteropods and heteropods are two independent groups of holoplanktonic gastropods that are potentially good indicators of the effects of ocean acidification. Although insight into their ecology and biogeography is important for predicting species-specific sensitivities to ocean change, the

Tropical teleconnections via the ocean and atmosphere induced by Southern Ocean deep convective events

Science.gov (United States)

Marinov, I.; Cabre, A.; Gunn, A.; Gnanadesikan, A.

2016-12-01

of the current ESMs with frequent deep-sea convection events in the control state predict a permanent shut down of this convection under climate change in the 21st century. We propose that the preindustrial convective state of the Southern Ocean and its evolution under climate warming will have implications for the SO-tropical teleconnections.

Ocean acidification alters fish populations indirectly through habitat modification

Science.gov (United States)

Nagelkerken, Ivan; Russell, Bayden D.; Gillanders, Bronwyn M.; Connell, Sean D.

2016-01-01

Ocean ecosystems are predicted to lose biodiversity and productivity from increasing ocean acidification. Although laboratory experiments reveal negative effects of acidification on the behaviour and performance of species, more comprehensive predictions have been hampered by a lack of in situ studies that incorporate the complexity of interactions between species and their environment. We studied CO2 vents from both Northern and Southern hemispheres, using such natural laboratories to investigate the effect of ocean acidification on plant-animal associations embedded within all their natural complexity. Although we substantiate simple direct effects of reduced predator-avoidance behaviour by fishes, as observed in laboratory experiments, we here show that this negative effect is naturally dampened when fish reside in shelter-rich habitats. Importantly, elevated CO2 drove strong increases in the abundance of some fish species through major habitat shifts, associated increases in resources such as habitat and prey availability, and reduced predator abundances. The indirect effects of acidification via resource and predator alterations may have far-reaching consequences for population abundances, and its study provides a framework for a more comprehensive understanding of increasing CO2 emissions as a driver of ecological change.

Improving NOAA's NWLON Through Enhanced Data Inputs from NASA's Ocean Surface Topography

Science.gov (United States)

Guest, DeNeice C.

2010-01-01

This report assesses the benefit of incorporating NASA's OSTM (Ocean Surface Topography Mission) altimeter data (C- and Ku-band) into NOAA's (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) NWLON (National Water Level Observation Network) DSS (Decision Support System). This data will enhance the NWLON DSS by providing additional inforrnation because not all stations collect all meteorological parameters (sea-surface height, ocean tides, wave height, and wind speed over waves). OSTM will also provide data where NWLON stations are not present. OSTM will provide data on seasurface heights for determining sea-level rise and ocean circulation. Researchers and operational users currently use satellite altimeter data products with the GSFCOO NASA data model to obtain sea-surface height and ocean circulation inforrnation. Accurate and tirnely inforrnation concerning sea-level height, tide, and ocean currents is needed to irnprove coastal tidal predictions, tsunarni and storm surge warnings, and wetland restoration.

Rapid shelf-wide cooling response of a stratified coastal ocean to hurricanes.

Science.gov (United States)

Seroka, Greg; Miles, Travis; Xu, Yi; Kohut, Josh; Schofield, Oscar; Glenn, Scott

2017-06-01

Large uncertainty in the predicted intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) persists compared to the steadily improving skill in the predicted TC tracks. This intensity uncertainty has its most significant implications in the coastal zone, where TC impacts to populated shorelines are greatest. Recent studies have demonstrated that rapid ahead-of-eye-center cooling of a stratified coastal ocean can have a significant impact on hurricane intensity forecasts. Using observation-validated, high-resolution ocean modeling, the stratified coastal ocean cooling processes observed in two U.S. Mid-Atlantic hurricanes were investigated: Hurricane Irene (2011)-with an inshore Mid-Atlantic Bight (MAB) track during the late summer stratified coastal ocean season-and Tropical Storm Barry (2007)-with an offshore track during early summer. For both storms, the critical ahead-of-eye-center depth-averaged force balance across the entire MAB shelf included an onshore wind stress balanced by an offshore pressure gradient. This resulted in onshore surface currents opposing offshore bottom currents that enhanced surface to bottom current shear and turbulent mixing across the thermocline, resulting in the rapid cooling of the surface layer ahead-of-eye-center. Because the same baroclinic and mixing processes occurred for two storms on opposite ends of the track and seasonal stratification envelope, the response appears robust. It will be critical to forecast these processes and their implications for a wide range of future storms using realistic 3-D coupled atmosphere-ocean models to lower the uncertainty in predictions of TC intensities and impacts and enable coastal populations to better respond to increasing rapid intensification threats in an era of rising sea levels.

Rapid shelf‐wide cooling response of a stratified coastal ocean to hurricanes

Science.gov (United States)

Miles, Travis; Xu, Yi; Kohut, Josh; Schofield, Oscar; Glenn, Scott

2017-01-01

Abstract Large uncertainty in the predicted intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) persists compared to the steadily improving skill in the predicted TC tracks. This intensity uncertainty has its most significant implications in the coastal zone, where TC impacts to populated shorelines are greatest. Recent studies have demonstrated that rapid ahead‐of‐eye‐center cooling of a stratified coastal ocean can have a significant impact on hurricane intensity forecasts. Using observation‐validated, high‐resolution ocean modeling, the stratified coastal ocean cooling processes observed in two U.S. Mid‐Atlantic hurricanes were investigated: Hurricane Irene (2011)—with an inshore Mid‐Atlantic Bight (MAB) track during the late summer stratified coastal ocean season—and Tropical Storm Barry (2007)—with an offshore track during early summer. For both storms, the critical ahead‐of‐eye‐center depth‐averaged force balance across the entire MAB shelf included an onshore wind stress balanced by an offshore pressure gradient. This resulted in onshore surface currents opposing offshore bottom currents that enhanced surface to bottom current shear and turbulent mixing across the thermocline, resulting in the rapid cooling of the surface layer ahead‐of‐eye‐center. Because the same baroclinic and mixing processes occurred for two storms on opposite ends of the track and seasonal stratification envelope, the response appears robust. It will be critical to forecast these processes and their implications for a wide range of future storms using realistic 3‐D coupled atmosphere‐ocean models to lower the uncertainty in predictions of TC intensities and impacts and enable coastal populations to better respond to increasing rapid intensification threats in an era of rising sea levels. PMID:28944132

The Naval Ocean Vertical Aerosol Model : Progress Report

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Leeuw, G. de; Gathman, S.G.; Davidson, K.L.; Jensen, D.R.

1990-01-01

The Naval Oceanic Vertical Aerosol Model (NOVAM) has been formulated to estimate the vertical structure of the optical and infrared extinction coefficients in the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL). NOVAM was designed to predict the non-uniform and non-logarithmic extinction profiles which are

Light penetration structures the deep acoustic scattering layers in the global ocean

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Aksnes, Dag L.; Rostad, Anders; Kaartvedt, Stein

2017-01-01

The deep scattering layer (DSL) is a ubiquitous acoustic signature found across all oceans and arguably the dominant feature structuring the pelagic open ocean ecosystem. It is formed by mesopelagic fishes and pelagic invertebrates. The DSL animals are an important food source for marine megafauna...... distributions with hypoxic waters. In enhancing understanding of this phenomenon, our results should improve the ability to predict and model the dynamics of one of the largest animal biomass components on earth, with key roles in the oceanic biological carbon pump and food web....

Initializing decadal climate predictions over the North Atlantic region

Science.gov (United States)

Matei, Daniela Mihaela; Pohlmann, Holger; Jungclaus, Johann; Müller, Wolfgang; Haak, Helmuth; Marotzke, Jochem

2010-05-01

Decadal climate prediction aims to predict the internally-generated decadal climate variability in addition to externally-forced climate change signal. In order to achieve this it is necessary to start the predictions from the current climate state. In this study we investigate the forecast skill of the North Atlantic decadal climate predictions using two different ocean initialization strategies. First we apply an assimilation of ocean synthesis data provided by the GECCO project (Köhl and Stammer, 2008) as initial conditions for the coupled model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. Hindcast experiments are then performed over the period 1952-2001. An alternative approach is one in which the subsurface ocean temperature and salinity are diagnosed from an ensemble of ocean model runs forced by the NCEP-NCAR atmospheric reanalyzes for the period 1948-2007, then nudge into the coupled model to produce initial conditions for the hindcast experiments. An anomaly coupling scheme is used in both approaches to avoid the hindcast drift and the associated initial shock. Differences between the two assimilation approaches are discussed by comparing them with the observational data in key regions and processes. We asses the skill of the initialized decadal hindcast experiments against the prediction skill of the non-initialized hindcasts simulation. We obtain an overview of the regions with the highest predictability from the regional distribution of the anomaly correlation coefficients and RMSE for the SAT. For the first year the hindcast skill is increased over almost all ocean regions in the NCEP-forced approach. This increase in the hindcast skill for the 1 year lead time is somewhat reduced in the GECCO approach. At lead time 5yr and 10yr, the skill enhancement is still found over the North Atlantic and North Pacific regions. We also consider the potential predictability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and Nordic Seas Overflow by comparing the predicted values to

Decadal Prediction Skill in the GEOS-5 Forecast System

Science.gov (United States)

Ham, Yoo-Geun; Rienecker, Michele M.; Suarez, Max J.; Vikhliaev, Yury; Zhao, Bin; Marshak, Jelena; Vernieres, Guillaume; Schubert, Siegfried D.

2013-01-01

A suite of decadal predictions has been conducted with the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office's (GMAO's) GEOS-5 Atmosphere-Ocean general circulation model. The hind casts are initialized every December 1st from 1959 to 2010, following the CMIP5 experimental protocol for decadal predictions. The initial conditions are from a multivariate ensemble optimal interpolation ocean and sea-ice reanalysis, and from GMAO's atmospheric reanalysis, the modern-era retrospective analysis for research and applications. The mean forecast skill of a three-member-ensemble is compared to that of an experiment without initialization but also forced with observed greenhouse gases. The results show that initialization increases the forecast skill of North Atlantic sea surface temperature compared to the uninitialized runs, with the increase in skill maintained for almost a decade over the subtropical and mid-latitude Atlantic. On the other hand, the initialization reduces the skill in predicting the warming trend over some regions outside the Atlantic. The annual-mean Atlantic meridional overturning circulation index, which is defined here as the maximum of the zonally-integrated overturning stream function at mid-latitude, is predictable up to a 4-year lead time, consistent with the predictable signal in upper ocean heat content over the North Atlantic. While the 6- to 9-year forecast skill measured by mean squared skill score shows 50 percent improvement in the upper ocean heat content over the subtropical and mid-latitude Atlantic, prediction skill is relatively low in the sub-polar gyre. This low skill is due in part to features in the spatial pattern of the dominant simulated decadal mode in upper ocean heat content over this region that differ from observations. An analysis of the large-scale temperature budget shows that this is the result of a model bias, implying that realistic simulation of the climatological fields is crucial for skillful decadal forecasts.

The Ocean Carbon States Database: a proof-of-concept application of cluster analysis in the ocean carbon cycle

Science.gov (United States)

Latto, Rebecca; Romanou, Anastasia

2018-03-01

In this paper, we present a database of the basic regimes of the carbon cycle in the ocean, the ocean carbon states, as obtained using a data mining/pattern recognition technique in observation-based as well as model data. The goal of this study is to establish a new data analysis methodology, test it and assess its utility in providing more insights into the regional and temporal variability of the marine carbon cycle. This is important as advanced data mining techniques are becoming widely used in climate and Earth sciences and in particular in studies of the global carbon cycle, where the interaction of physical and biogeochemical drivers confounds our ability to accurately describe, understand, and predict CO2 concentrations and their changes in the major planetary carbon reservoirs. In this proof-of-concept study, we focus on using well-understood data that are based on observations, as well as model results from the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) climate model. Our analysis shows that ocean carbon states are associated with the subtropical-subpolar gyre during the colder months of the year and the tropics during the warmer season in the North Atlantic basin. Conversely, in the Southern Ocean, the ocean carbon states can be associated with the subtropical and Antarctic convergence zones in the warmer season and the coastal Antarctic divergence zone in the colder season. With respect to model evaluation, we find that the GISS model reproduces the cold and warm season regimes more skillfully in the North Atlantic than in the Southern Ocean and matches the observed seasonality better than the spatial distribution of the regimes. Finally, the ocean carbon states provide useful information in the model error attribution. Model air-sea CO2 flux biases in the North Atlantic stem from wind speed and salinity biases in the subpolar region and nutrient and wind speed biases in the subtropics and tropics. Nutrient biases are shown to be most important in

Crustal control of dissipative ocean tides in Enceladus and other icy moons

Science.gov (United States)

Beuthe, Mikael

2016-12-01

Could tidal dissipation within Enceladus' subsurface ocean account for the observed heat flow? Earthlike models of dynamical tides give no definitive answer because they neglect the influence of the crust. I propose here the first model of dissipative tides in a subsurface ocean, by combining the Laplace Tidal Equations with the membrane approach. For the first time, it is possible to compute tidal dissipation rates within the crust, ocean, and mantle in one go. I show that oceanic dissipation is strongly reduced by the crustal constraint, and thus contributes little to Enceladus' present heat budget. Tidal resonances could have played a role in a forming or freezing ocean less than 100 m deep. The model is general: it applies to all icy satellites with a thin crust and a shallow ocean. Scaling rules relate the resonances and dissipation rate of a subsurface ocean to the ones of a surface ocean. If the ocean has low viscosity, the westward obliquity tide does not move the crust. Therefore, crustal dissipation due to dynamical obliquity tides can differ from the static prediction by up to a factor of two.

Measuring Ocean Literacy: What teens understand about the ocean using the Survey of Ocean Literacy and Engagement (SOLE)

Science.gov (United States)

Greely, T. M.; Lodge, A.

2009-12-01

Ocean issues with conceptual ties to science and global society have captured the attention, imagination, and concern of an international audience. Climate change, over fishing, marine pollution, freshwater shortages and alternative energy sources are a few ocean issues highlighted in our media and casual conversations. The ocean plays a role in our life in some way everyday, however, disconnect exists between what scientists know and the public understands about the ocean as revealed by numerous ocean and coastal literacy surveys. While the public exhibits emotive responses through care, concern and connection with the ocean, there remains a critical need for a baseline of ocean knowledge. However, knowledge about the ocean must be balanced with understanding about how to apply ocean information to daily decisions and actions. The present study analyzed underlying factors and patterns contributing to ocean literacy and reasoning within the context of an ocean education program, the Oceanography Camp for Girls. The OCG is designed to advance ocean conceptual understanding and decision making by engagement in a series of experiential learning and stewardship activities from authentic research settings in the field and lab. The present study measured a) what understanding teens currently hold about the ocean (content), b) how teens feel toward the ocean environment (environmental attitudes and morality), and c) how understanding and feelings are organized when reasoning about ocean socioscientific issues (e.g. climate change, over fishing, energy). The Survey of Ocean Literacy and Engagement (SOLE), was used to measure teens understanding about the ocean. SOLE is a 57-item survey instrument aligned with the Essential Principles and Fundamental Concepts of Ocean Literacy (NGS, 2007). Rasch analysis was used to refine and validate SOLE as a reasonable measure of ocean content knowledge (reliability, 0.91). Results revealed that content knowledge and environmental

Marine pollution. Plastic waste inputs from land into the ocean.

Science.gov (United States)

Jambeck, Jenna R; Geyer, Roland; Wilcox, Chris; Siegler, Theodore R; Perryman, Miriam; Andrady, Anthony; Narayan, Ramani; Law, Kara Lavender

2015-02-13

Plastic debris in the marine environment is widely documented, but the quantity of plastic entering the ocean from waste generated on land is unknown. By linking worldwide data on solid waste, population density, and economic status, we estimated the mass of land-based plastic waste entering the ocean. We calculate that 275 million metric tons (MT) of plastic waste was generated in 192 coastal countries in 2010, with 4.8 to 12.7 million MT entering the ocean. Population size and the quality of waste management systems largely determine which countries contribute the greatest mass of uncaptured waste available to become plastic marine debris. Without waste management infrastructure improvements, the cumulative quantity of plastic waste available to enter the ocean from land is predicted to increase by an order of magnitude by 2025. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Ocean acidification impairs crab foraging behaviour.

Science.gov (United States)

Dodd, Luke F; Grabowski, Jonathan H; Piehler, Michael F; Westfield, Isaac; Ries, Justin B

2015-07-07

Anthropogenic elevation of atmospheric CO2 is driving global-scale ocean acidification, which consequently influences calcification rates of many marine invertebrates and potentially alters their susceptibility to predation. Ocean acidification may also impair an organism's ability to process environmental and biological cues. These counteracting impacts make it challenging to predict how acidification will alter species interactions and community structure. To examine effects of acidification on consumptive and behavioural interactions between mud crabs (Panopeus herbstii) and oysters (Crassostrea virginica), oysters were reared with and without caged crabs for 71 days at three pCO2 levels. During subsequent predation trials, acidification reduced prey consumption, handling time and duration of unsuccessful predation attempt. These negative effects of ocean acidification on crab foraging behaviour more than offset any benefit to crabs resulting from a reduction in the net rate of oyster calcification. These findings reveal that efforts to evaluate how acidification will alter marine food webs should include quantifying impacts on both calcification rates and animal behaviour. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Fortnightly Ocean Tides, Earth Rotation, and Mantle Anelasticity

Science.gov (United States)

Ray, Richard; Egbert, Gary

2012-01-01

The fortnightly Mf ocean tide is the largest of the long-period tides (periods between 1 week and 18.6 years), but Mf is still very small, generally 2 cm or less. All long-period tides are thought to be near equilibrium with the astronomical tidal potential, with an almost pure zonal structure. However, several lines of evidence point to Mf having a significant dynamic response to forcing. We use a combination of numerical modeling, satellite altimetry, and observations of polar motion to determine the Mf ocean tide and to place constraints on certain global properties, such as angular momentum. Polar motion provides the only constraints on Mf tidal currents. With a model of the Mf ocean tide in hand, we use it to remove the effects of the ocean from estimates of fortnightly variations in length-of-day. The latter is dominated by the earth's body tide, but a small residual allows us to place new constraints on the anelasticity of the earth's mantle. The result gives the first experimental confirmation of theoretical predictions made by Wahr and Bergen in 1986.

Plankton networks driving carbon export in the oligotrophic ocean

Science.gov (United States)

Larhlimi, Abdelhalim; Roux, Simon; Darzi, Youssef; Audic, Stephane; Berline, Léo; Brum, Jennifer; Coelho, Luis Pedro; Espinoza, Julio Cesar Ignacio; Malviya, Shruti; Sunagawa, Shinichi; Dimier, Céline; Kandels-Lewis, Stefanie; Picheral, Marc; Poulain, Julie; Searson, Sarah; Stemmann, Lars; Not, Fabrice; Hingamp, Pascal; Speich, Sabrina; Follows, Mick; Karp-Boss, Lee; Boss, Emmanuel; Ogata, Hiroyuki; Pesant, Stephane; Weissenbach, Jean; Wincker, Patrick; Acinas, Silvia G.; Bork, Peer; de Vargas, Colomban; Iudicone, Daniele; Sullivan, Matthew B.; Raes, Jeroen; Karsenti, Eric; Bowler, Chris; Gorsky, Gabriel

2015-01-01

The biological carbon pump is the process by which CO2 is transformed to organic carbon via photosynthesis, exported through sinking particles, and finally sequestered in the deep ocean. While the intensity of the pump correlates with plankton community composition, the underlying ecosystem structure driving the process remains largely uncharacterised. Here we use environmental and metagenomic data gathered during the Tara Oceans expedition to improve our understanding of carbon export in the oligotrophic ocean. We show that specific plankton communities, from the surface and deep chlorophyll maximum, correlate with carbon export at 150 m and highlight unexpected taxa such as Radiolaria, alveolate parasites, as well as Synechococcus and their phages, as lineages most strongly associated with carbon export in the subtropical, nutrient-depleted, oligotrophic ocean. Additionally, we show that the relative abundance of just a few bacterial and viral genes can predict most of the variability in carbon export in these regions. PMID:26863193

Plankton networks driving carbon export in the oligotrophic ocean

Science.gov (United States)

2016-04-01

The biological carbon pump is the process by which CO2 is transformed to organic carbon via photosynthesis, exported through sinking particles, and finally sequestered in the deep ocean. While the intensity of the pump correlates with plankton community composition, the underlying ecosystem structure driving the process remains largely uncharacterized. Here we use environmental and metagenomic data gathered during the Tara Oceans expedition to improve our understanding of carbon export in the oligotrophic ocean. We show that specific plankton communities, from the surface and deep chlorophyll maximum, correlate with carbon export at 150 m and highlight unexpected taxa such as Radiolaria and alveolate parasites, as well as Synechococcus and their phages, as lineages most strongly associated with carbon export in the subtropical, nutrient-depleted, oligotrophic ocean. Additionally, we show that the relative abundance of a few bacterial and viral genes can predict a significant fraction of the variability in carbon export in these regions.

Effects of ocean acidification on the dissolution rates of reef-coral skeletons

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Robert van Woesik

2013-11-01

Full Text Available Ocean acidification threatens the foundation of tropical coral reefs. This study investigated three aspects of ocean acidification: (i the rates at which perforate and imperforate coral-colony skeletons passively dissolve when pH is 7.8, which is predicted to occur globally by 2100, (ii the rates of passive dissolution of corals with respect to coral-colony surface areas, and (iii the comparative rates of a vertical reef-growth model, incorporating passive dissolution rates, and predicted sea-level rise. By 2100, when the ocean pH is expected to be 7.8, perforate Montipora coral skeletons will lose on average 15 kg CaCO3 m−2 y−1, which is approximately −10.5 mm of vertical reduction of reef framework per year. This rate of passive dissolution is higher than the average rate of reef growth over the last several millennia and suggests that reefs composed of perforate Montipora coral skeletons will have trouble keeping up with sea-level rise under ocean acidification. Reefs composed of primarily imperforate coral skeletons will not likely dissolve as rapidly, but our model shows they will also have trouble keeping up with sea-level rise by 2050.

Pteropods in Southern Ocean ecosystems

Science.gov (United States)

Hunt, B. P. V.; Pakhomov, E. A.; Hosie, G. W.; Siegel, V.; Ward, P.; Bernard, K.

2008-09-01

To date, little research has been carried out on pelagic gastropod molluscs (pteropods) in Southern Ocean ecosystems. However, recent predictions are that, due to acidification resulting from a business as usual approach to CO 2 emissions (IS92a), Southern Ocean surface waters may begin to become uninhabitable for aragonite shelled thecosome pteropods by 2050. To gain insight into the potential impact that this would have on Southern Ocean ecosystems, we have here synthesized available data on pteropod distributions and densities, assessed current knowledge of pteropod ecology, and highlighted knowledge gaps and directions for future research on this zooplankton group. Six species of pteropod are typical of the Southern Ocean south of the Sub-Tropical Convergence, including the four Thecosomes Limacina helicina antarctica, Limacina retroversa australis, Clio pyramidata, and Clio piatkowskii, and two Gymnosomes Clione limacina antarctica and Spongiobranchaea australis. Limacina retroversa australis dominated pteropod densities north of the Polar Front (PF), averaging 60 ind m -3 (max = 800 ind m -3) and 11% of total zooplankton at the Prince Edward Islands. South of the PF L. helicina antarctica predominated, averaging 165 ind m -3 (max = 2681 ind m -3) and up to >35% of total zooplankton at South Georgia, and up to 1397 ind m -3 and 63% of total zooplankton in the Ross Sea. Combined pteropods contributed 40% of community grazing impact. Further research is required to quantify diet selectivity, the effect of phytoplankton composition on growth and reproductive success, and the role of carnivory in thecosomes. Life histories are a significant knowledge gap for Southern Ocean pteropods, a single study having been completed for L. retroversa australis, making population studies a priority for this group. Pteropods appear to be important in biogeochemical cycling, thecosome shells contributing >50% to carbonate flux in the deep ocean south of the PF. Pteropods may also

Air-Sea Momentum and Enthalpy Exchange in Coupled Atmosphere-Wave-Ocean Modeling of Tropical Cyclones

Science.gov (United States)

Curcic, M.; Chen, S. S.

2016-02-01

The atmosphere and ocean are coupled through momentum, enthalpy, and mass fluxes. Accurate representation of these fluxes in a wide range of weather and climate conditions is one of major challenges in prediction models. Their current parameterizations are based on sparse observations in low-to-moderate winds and are not suited for high wind conditions such as tropical cyclones (TCs) and winter storms. In this study, we use the Unified Wave INterface - Coupled Model (UWIN-CM), a high resolution, fully-coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean model, to better understand the role of ocean surface waves in mediating air-sea momentum and enthalpy exchange in TCs. In particular, we focus on the explicit treatment of wave growth and dissipation for calculating atmospheric and oceanic stress, and its role in upper ocean mixing and surface cooling in the wake of the storm. Wind-wave misalignment and local wave disequilibrium result in difference between atmospheric and oceanic stress being largest on the left side of the storm. We find that explicit wave calculation in the coupled model reduces momentum transfer into the ocean by more than 10% on average, resulting in reduced cooling in TC's wake and subsequent weakening of the storm. We also investigate the impacts of sea surface temperature and upper ocean parameterization on air-sea enthalpy fluxes in the fully coupled model. High-resolution UWIN-CM simulations of TCs with various intensities and structure are conducted in this study to better understand the complex TC-ocean interaction and improve the representation of air-sea coupling processes in coupled prediction models.

Quantifying the influence of CO2 seasonality on future ocean acidification

Science.gov (United States)

Sasse, T. P.; McNeil, B. I.; Matear, R. J.; Lenton, A.

2015-04-01

Ocean acidification is a predictable consequence of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), and is highly likely to impact the entire marine ecosystem - from plankton at the base to fish at the top. Factors which are expected to be impacted include reproductive health, organism growth and species composition and distribution. Predicting when critical threshold values will be reached is crucial for projecting the future health of marine ecosystems and for marine resources planning and management. The impacts of ocean acidification will be first felt at the seasonal scale, however our understanding how seasonal variability will influence rates of future ocean acidification remains poorly constrained due to current model and data limitations. To address this issue, we first quantified the seasonal cycle of aragonite saturation state utilizing new data-based estimates of global ocean surface dissolved inorganic carbon and alkalinity. This seasonality was then combined with earth system model projections under different emissions scenarios (RCPs 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5) to provide new insights into future aragonite under-saturation onset. Under a high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5), our results suggest accounting for seasonality will bring forward the initial onset of month-long under-saturation by 17 years compared to annual-mean estimates, with differences extending up to 35 ± 17 years in the North Pacific due to strong regional seasonality. Our results also show large-scale under-saturation once atmospheric CO2 reaches 486 ppm in the North Pacific and 511 ppm in the Southern Ocean independent of emission scenario. Our results suggest that accounting for seasonality is critical to projecting the future impacts of ocean acidification on the marine environment.

The Ocean Carbon States Database: A Proof-of-Concept Application of Cluster Analysis in the Ocean Carbon Cycle

Science.gov (United States)

Latto, Rebecca; Romanou, Anastasia

2018-01-01

In this paper, we present a database of the basic regimes of the carbon cycle in the ocean, the 'ocean carbon states', as obtained using a data mining/pattern recognition technique in observation-based as well as model data. The goal of this study is to establish a new data analysis methodology, test it and assess its utility in providing more insights into the regional and temporal variability of the marine carbon cycle. This is important as advanced data mining techniques are becoming widely used in climate and Earth sciences and in particular in studies of the global carbon cycle, where the interaction of physical and biogeochemical drivers confounds our ability to accurately describe, understand, and predict CO2 concentrations and their changes in the major planetary carbon reservoirs. In this proof-of-concept study, we focus on using well-understood data that are based on observations, as well as model results from the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) climate model. Our analysis shows that ocean carbon states are associated with the subtropical-subpolar gyre during the colder months of the year and the tropics during the warmer season in the North Atlantic basin. Conversely, in the Southern Ocean, the ocean carbon states can be associated with the subtropical and Antarctic convergence zones in the warmer season and the coastal Antarctic divergence zone in the colder season. With respect to model evaluation, we find that the GISS model reproduces the cold and warm season regimes more skillfully in the North Atlantic than in the Southern Ocean and matches the observed seasonality better than the spatial distribution of the regimes. Finally, the ocean carbon states provide useful information in the model error attribution. Model air-sea CO2 flux biases in the North Atlantic stem from wind speed and salinity biases in the subpolar region and nutrient and wind speed biases in the subtropics and tropics. Nutrient biases are shown to be most important

On the Predictability of Sea Ice

Science.gov (United States)

Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Edward

We investigate the persistence and predictability of sea ice in numerical models and observations. We first use the 3rd generation Community Climate System Model (CCSM3) General Circulation Model (GCM) to investigate the inherent persistence of sea-ice area and thickness. We find that sea-ice area anomalies have a seasonal decay timescale, exhibiting an initial decorrelation similar to a first order auto-regressive (AR1, or red noise) process. Beyond this initial loss of memory, there is a re-emergence of memory at certain times of the year. There are two distinct modes of re-emergence in the model, one driven by the seasonal coupling of area and thickness anomalies in the summer, the other by the persistence of upper ocean temperature anomalies that originate from ice anomalies in the melt season and then influence ice anomalies in the growth season. Comparison with satellite observations where available indicate these processes appear in nature. We then use the 4th generation CCSM (CCSM4) to investigate the partition of Arctic sea-ice predictability into its initial-value and boundary forced components under present day forcing conditions. We find that initial-value predictability lasts for 1-2 years for sea-ice area, and 3-4 years for sea-ice volume. Forced predictability arises after just 4-5 years for both area and volume. Initial-value predictability of sea-ice area during the summer hinges on the coupling between thickness and area anomalies during that season. We find that the loss of initial-value predictability with time is not uniform --- there is a rapid loss of predictability of sea-ice volume during the late spring early summer associated with snow melt and albedo feedbacks. At the same time, loss of predictability is not uniform across different regions. Given the usefulness of ice thickness as a predictor of summer sea-ice area, we obtain a hindcast of September sea-ice area initializing the GCM on May 1with an estimate of observed sea-ice thickness

Synthesis and Assimilation Systems - Essential Adjuncts to the Global Ocean Observing System

Science.gov (United States)

Rienecker, Michele M.; Balmaseda, Magdalena; Awaji, Toshiyuki; Barnier, Bernard; Behringer, David; Bell, Mike; Bourassa, Mark; Brasseur, Pierre; Breivik, Lars-Anders; Carton, James;

Automated sensor networks to advance ocean science

Science.gov (United States)

Schofield, O.; Orcutt, J. A.; Arrott, M.; Vernon, F. L.; Peach, C. L.; Meisinger, M.; Krueger, I.; Kleinert, J.; Chao, Y.; Chien, S.; Thompson, D. R.; Chave, A. D.; Balasuriya, A.

2010-12-01

The National Science Foundation has funded the Ocean Observatories Initiative (OOI), which over the next five years will deploy infrastructure to expand scientist’s ability to remotely study the ocean. The deployed infrastructure will be linked by a robust cyberinfrastructure (CI) that will integrate marine observatories into a coherent system-of-systems. OOI is committed to engaging the ocean sciences community during the construction pahse. For the CI, this is being enabled by using a “spiral design strategy” allowing for input throughout the construction phase. In Fall 2009, the OOI CI development team used an existing ocean observing network in the Mid-Atlantic Bight (MAB) to test OOI CI software. The objective of this CI test was to aggregate data from ships, autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs), shore-based radars, and satellites and make it available to five different data-assimilating ocean forecast models. Scientists used these multi-model forecasts to automate future glider missions in order to demonstrate the feasibility of two-way interactivity between the sensor web and predictive models. The CI software coordinated and prioritized the shared resources that allowed for the semi-automated reconfiguration of assett-tasking, and thus enabled an autonomous execution of observation plans for the fixed and mobile observation platforms. Efforts were coordinated through a web portal that provided an access point for the observational data and model forecasts. Researchers could use the CI software in tandem with the web data portal to assess the performance of individual numerical model results, or multi-model ensembles, through real-time comparisons with satellite, shore-based radar, and in situ robotic measurements. The resulting sensor net will enable a new means to explore and study the world’s oceans by providing scientists a responsive network in the world’s oceans that can be accessed via any wireless network.

Coordination and Integration of Global Ocean Observing through JCOMM

Science.gov (United States)

Legler, D. M.; Meldrum, D. T.; Hill, K. L.; Charpentier, E.

2016-02-01

The primary objective of the JCOMM Observations Coordination Group (OCG) is to provide technical coordination to implement fully integrated ocean observing system across the entire marine meteorology and oceanographic community. JCOMM OCG works in partnership with the Global Ocean Observing System, , which focusses on setting observing system requirements and conducting evalutions. JCOMM OCG initially focused on major global observing networks (e.g. Argo profiling floats, moored buoys, ship based observations, sea level stations, reference sites, etc), and is now expanding its horizon in recognition of new observing needs and new technologies/networks (e.g. ocean gliders). Over the next five years the JCOMM OCG is focusing its attention on integration and coordination in four major areas: observing network implementation particularly in response to integrated ocean observing requirements; observing system monitoring and metrics; standards and best practices; and improving integrated data management and access. This presentation will describe the scope and mission of JCOMM OCG; summarize the state of the global ocean observing system; highlight recent successes and resources for the research, prediction, and assessment communities; summarize our plans for the next several years; and suggest engagement opportunities.

Ocean heat content and Earth's radiation imbalance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Douglass, David H.; Knox, Robert S.

2009-01-01

Earth's radiation imbalance is determined from ocean heat content data and compared with results of direct measurements. Distinct time intervals of alternating positive and negative values are found: 1960-mid-1970s (-0.15), mid-1970s-2000 (+0.15), 2001-present (-0.2 W/m 2 ), and are consistent with prior reports. These climate shifts limit climate predictability.

Response of Ocean Circulation to Different Wind Forcing in Puerto Rico and US Virgin Islands

Science.gov (United States)

Solano, Miguel; Garcia, Edgardo; Leonardi, Stafano; Canals, Miguel; Capella, Jorge

2013-11-01

The response of the ocean circulation to various wind forcing products has been studied using the Regional Ocean Modeling System. The computational domain includes the main islands of Puerto Rico, Saint John and Saint Thomas, located on the continental shelf dividing the Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean. Data for wind forcing is provided by an anemometer located in a moored buoy, the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) model and the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD). Hindcast simulations have been validated using hydrographic data at different locations in the area of study. Three cases are compared to quantify the impact of high resolution wind forcing on the ocean circulation and the vertical structure of salinity, temperature and velocity. In the first case a constant wind velocity field is used to force the model as measured by an anemometer on top of a buoy. In the second case, a forcing field provided by the Navy's COAMPS model is used and in the third case, winds are taken from NDFD in collaboration with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. Validated results of ocean currents against data from Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers at different locations show better agreement using high resolution wind data as expected. Thanks to CariCOOS and NOAA.

A data-assimilative ocean forecasting system for the Prince William sound and an evaluation of its performance during sound Predictions 2009

Science.gov (United States)

Farrara, John D.; Chao, Yi; Li, Zhijin; Wang, Xiaochun; Jin, Xin; Zhang, Hongchun; Li, Peggy; Vu, Quoc; Olsson, Peter Q.; Schoch, G. Carl; Halverson, Mark; Moline, Mark A.; Ohlmann, Carter; Johnson, Mark; McWilliams, James C.; Colas, Francois A.

2013-07-01

The development and implementation of a three-dimensional ocean modeling system for the Prince William Sound (PWS) is described. The system consists of a regional ocean model component (ROMS) forced by output from a regional atmospheric model component (the Weather Research and Forecasting Model, WRF). The ROMS ocean model component has a horizontal resolution of 1km within PWS and utilizes a recently-developed multi-scale 3DVAR data assimilation methodology along with freshwater runoff from land obtained via real-time execution of a digital elevation model. During the Sound Predictions Field Experiment (July 19-August 3, 2009) the system was run in real-time to support operations and incorporated all available real-time streams of data. Nowcasts were produced every 6h and a 48-h forecast was performed once a day. In addition, a sixteen-member ensemble of forecasts was executed on most days. All results were published at a web portal (http://ourocean.jpl.nasa.gov/PWS) in real time to support decision making.The performance of the system during Sound Predictions 2009 is evaluated. The ROMS results are first compared with the assimilated data as a consistency check. RMS differences of about 0.7°C were found between the ROMS temperatures and the observed vertical profiles of temperature that are assimilated. The ROMS salinities show greater discrepancies, tending to be too salty near the surface. The overall circulation patterns observed throughout the Sound are qualitatively reproduced, including the following evolution in time. During the first week of the experiment, the weather was quite stormy with strong southeasterly winds. This resulted in strong north to northwestward surface flow in much of the central PWS. Both the observed drifter trajectories and the ROMS nowcasts showed strong surface inflow into the Sound through the Hinchinbrook Entrance and strong generally northward to northwestward flow in the central Sound that was exiting through the Knight

Evidence for Excitation of Polar Motion by Fortnightly Ocean Tides

Science.gov (United States)

Gross, Richard S.; Hamdan, Kamal H.; Boggs, Dale H.

1996-01-01

The second-degree zonal tide raising potential, which is responsible for tidal changes in the Earth's rotation rate and length-of-day, is symmetric about the polar axis and hence can excite the Earth's polar motion only through its action upon nonaxisymmetric features of the Earth such as the oceans. Ocean tidal excitation of polar motion in the diurnal and semidiurnal tidal bands has been previously detected and examined. Here, the detection of ocean tidal excitation of polar motion in the long-period tidal band, specifically at the Mf' (13.63-day) and Mf (13.66-day) tidal frequencies, is reported. Spectra of the SPACE94 polar motion excitation series exhibit peaks at the prograde and retrograde fortnightly tidal periods. After removing effects of atmospheric wind and pressure changes, an empirical model for the effect of the fortnightly ocean tides upon polar motion excitation is obtained by least-squares fitting periodic terms at the Mf and Mf' tidal frequencies to the residual polar motion excitation series. The resulting empirical model is then compared with the predictions of two hydrodynamic ocean tide models.

Isotope composition and volume of Earth´s early oceans

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pope, Emily Catherine; Bird, Dennis K.; Rosing, Minik Thorleif

2012-01-01

Oxygen and hydrogen isotope compositions of Earth´s seawater are controlled by volatile fluxes among mantle, lithospheric (oceanic and continental crust), and atmospheric reservoirs. Throughout geologic time the oxygen mass budget was likely conserved within these Earth system reservoirs, but hyd...... in Earth´s oceans. Our calculations predict that the oceans of early Earth were up to 26% more voluminous, and atmospheric CH4 and CO2 concentrations determined from limits on hydrogen escape to space are consistent with clement conditions on Archaean Earth.......Oxygen and hydrogen isotope compositions of Earth´s seawater are controlled by volatile fluxes among mantle, lithospheric (oceanic and continental crust), and atmospheric reservoirs. Throughout geologic time the oxygen mass budget was likely conserved within these Earth system reservoirs......, but hydrogen´s was not, as it can escape to space. Isotopic properties of serpentine from the approximately 3.8 Ga Isua Supracrustal Belt in West Greenland are used to characterize hydrogen and oxygen isotope compositions of ancient seawater. Archaean oceans were depleted in deuterium [expressed as Î...

Predicting the effects of ocean acidification on predator-prey interactions: a conceptual framework based on coastal molluscs.

Science.gov (United States)

Kroeker, Kristy J; Sanford, Eric; Jellison, Brittany M; Gaylord, Brian

2014-06-01

The influence of environmental change on species interactions will affect population dynamics and community structure in the future, but our current understanding of the outcomes of species interactions in a high-CO2 world is limited. Here, we draw upon emerging experimental research examining the effects of ocean acidification on coastal molluscs to provide hypotheses of the potential impacts of high-CO2 on predator-prey interactions. Coastal molluscs, such as oysters, mussels, and snails, allocate energy among defenses, growth, and reproduction. Ocean acidification increases the energetic costs of physiological processes such as acid-base regulation and calcification. Impacted molluscs can display complex and divergent patterns of energy allocation to defenses and growth that may influence predator-prey interactions; these include changes in shell properties, body size, tissue mass, immune function, or reproductive output. Ocean acidification has also been shown to induce complex changes in chemoreception, behavior, and inducible defenses, including altered cue detection and predator avoidance behaviors. Each of these responses may ultimately alter the susceptibility of coastal molluscs to predation through effects on predator handling time, satiation, and search time. While many of these effects may manifest as increases in per capita predation rates on coastal molluscs, the ultimate outcome of predator-prey interactions will also depend on how ocean acidification affects the specified predators, which also exhibit complex responses to ocean acidification. Changes in predator-prey interactions could have profound and unexplored consequences for the population dynamics of coastal molluscs in a high-CO2 ocean. © 2014 Marine Biological Laboratory.

Sensitivity of global ocean biogeochemical dynamics to ecosystem structure in a future climate

Science.gov (United States)

Manizza, Manfredi; Buitenhuis, Erik T.; Le Quéré, Corinne

2010-07-01

Terrestrial and oceanic ecosystem components of the Earth System models (ESMs) are key to predict the future behavior of the global carbon cycle. Ocean ecosystem models represent low complexity compared to terrestrial ecosystem models. In this study we use two ocean biogeochemical models based on the explicit representation of multiple planktonic functional types. We impose to the models the same future physical perturbation and compare the response of ecosystem dynamics, export production (EP) and ocean carbon uptake (OCU) to the same physical changes. Models comparison shows that: (1) EP changes directly translate into changes of OCU on decadal time scale, (2) the representation of ecosystem structure plays a pivotal role at linking OCU and EP, (3) OCU is highly sensitive to representation of ecosystem in the Equatorial Pacific and Southern Oceans.

Assessment of space sensors for ocean pollution monitoring

Science.gov (United States)

Alvarado, U. R.; Tomiyasu, K.; Gulatsi, R. L.

1980-01-01

Several passive and active microwave, as well as passive optical remote sensors, applicable to the monitoring of oil spills and waste discharges at sea, are considered. The discussed types of measurements relate to: (1) spatial distribution and properties of the pollutant, and (2) oceanic parameters needed to predict the movement of the pollutants and their impact upon land. The sensors, operating from satellite platforms at 700-900 km altitudes, are found to be useful in mapping the spread of oil in major oil spills and in addition, can be effective in producing wind and ocean parameters as inputs to oil trajectory and dispersion models. These capabilities can be used in countermeasures.

A numerical model for ocean ultra-low frequency noise: wave-generated acoustic-gravity and Rayleigh modes.

Science.gov (United States)

Ardhuin, Fabrice; Lavanant, Thibaut; Obrebski, Mathias; Marié, Louis; Royer, Jean-Yves; d'Eu, Jean-François; Howe, Bruce M; Lukas, Roger; Aucan, Jerome

2013-10-01

The generation of ultra-low frequency acoustic noise (0.1 to 1 Hz) by the nonlinear interaction of ocean surface gravity waves is well established. More controversial are the quantitative theories that attempt to predict the recorded noise levels and their variability. Here a single theoretical framework is used to predict the noise level associated with propagating pseudo-Rayleigh modes and evanescent acoustic-gravity modes. The latter are dominant only within 200 m from the sea surface, in shallow or deep water. At depths larger than 500 m, the comparison of a numerical noise model with hydrophone records from two open-ocean sites near Hawaii and the Kerguelen islands reveal: (a) Deep ocean acoustic noise at frequencies 0.1 to 1 Hz is consistent with the Rayleigh wave theory, in which the presence of the ocean bottom amplifies the noise by 10 to 20 dB; (b) in agreement with previous results, the local maxima in the noise spectrum support the theoretical prediction for the vertical structure of acoustic modes; and (c) noise level and variability are well predicted for frequencies up to 0.4 Hz. Above 0.6 Hz, the model results are less accurate, probably due to the poor estimation of the directional properties of wind-waves with frequencies higher than 0.3 Hz.

Initialization and Predictability of a Coupled ENSO Forecast Model

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Dake; Zebiak, Stephen E.; Cane, Mark A.; Busalacchi, Antonio J.

1997-01-01

The skill of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model in predicting ENSO has recently been improved using a new initialization procedure in which initial conditions are obtained from the coupled model, nudged toward observations of wind stress. The previous procedure involved direct insertion of wind stress observations, ignoring model feedback from ocean to atmosphere. The success of the new scheme is attributed to its explicit consideration of ocean-atmosphere coupling and the associated reduction of "initialization shock" and random noise. The so-called spring predictability barrier is eliminated, suggesting that such a barrier is not intrinsic to the real climate system. Initial attempts to generalize the nudging procedure to include SST were not successful; possible explanations are offered. In all experiments forecast skill is found to be much higher for the 1980s than for the 1970s and 1990s, suggesting decadal variations in predictability.

Studying ocean acidification in the Arctic Ocean

Science.gov (United States)

Robbins, Lisa

2012-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) partnership with the U.S. Coast Guard Ice Breaker Healey and its United Nations Convention Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) cruises has produced new synoptic data from samples collected in the Arctic Ocean and insights into the patterns and extent of ocean acidification. This framework of foundational geochemical information will help inform our understanding of potential risks to Arctic resources due to ocean acidification.

Role of coral reefs in global ocean production

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Crossland, C J; Hatcher, B G; Smith, S V [CSIRO Institute of Natural Resources and Environment, Dickson, ACT (Australia)

1991-01-01

Coral reefs cover some 600 thousand square kilometres of the earth's surface (0.17% of the ocean surface). First order estimates show coral reefs to contribute about 0.05% of the estimated net CO{sub 2} fixation rate of the global oceans. Gross CO{sub 2} fixation is relatively high (of the order 700 x 10{sup 12}g C year{sup -1}), but most of this material is recycled within the reefs. Excess (net) production of organic material (E) is much smaller, of the order 20 x 10{sup 12}g C year{sup -1}. 75% of E is available for export from coral reefs to adjacent areas. Comparison of estimates for net production by reefs and their surrounding oceans indicates that the excess production by coral reefs is similar to new production in the photic zone of oligotrophic oceans. Consequently, estimates for global ocean production should as a first approximation include reefal areas with the surrounding ocean when assigning average net production rates. It can be concluded that organic production by reefs plays a relatively minor role in the global scale of fluxes and storage of elements. In comparison, the companion process of biologically-mediated inorganic carbon precipitation represents a major role for reefs. While reef production does respond on local scales to variation in ocean climate, neither the absolute rates nor the amount accumulated into organic pools appear to be either sensitive indicators or accurate recorders of climatic change in most reef systems. Similarly, the productivity of most reefs should be little affected by currently predicted environmental changes resulting from the greenhouse effect. 86 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab.

Ocean barrier layers' effect on tropical cyclone intensification.

Science.gov (United States)

Balaguru, Karthik; Chang, Ping; Saravanan, R; Leung, L Ruby; Xu, Zhao; Li, Mingkui; Hsieh, Jen-Shan

2012-09-04

Improving a tropical cyclone's forecast and mitigating its destructive potential requires knowledge of various environmental factors that influence the cyclone's path and intensity. Herein, using a combination of observations and model simulations, we systematically demonstrate that tropical cyclone intensification is significantly affected by salinity-induced barrier layers, which are "quasi-permanent" features in the upper tropical oceans. When tropical cyclones pass over regions with barrier layers, the increased stratification and stability within the layer reduce storm-induced vertical mixing and sea surface temperature cooling. This causes an increase in enthalpy flux from the ocean to the atmosphere and, consequently, an intensification of tropical cyclones. On average, the tropical cyclone intensification rate is nearly 50% higher over regions with barrier layers, compared to regions without. Our finding, which underscores the importance of observing not only the upper-ocean thermal structure but also the salinity structure in deep tropical barrier layer regions, may be a key to more skillful predictions of tropical cyclone intensities through improved ocean state estimates and simulations of barrier layer processes. As the hydrological cycle responds to global warming, any associated changes in the barrier layer distribution must be considered in projecting future tropical cyclone activity.

Preparing to Predict: The Second Autonomous Ocean Sampling Network (AOSN-II) Experiment in the Monterey Bay

Science.gov (United States)

2008-06-06

MBARI buoy M2, profiling to 250 m depth (Figure 1). Instruments on board included a CTD, fluorometer, oxygen and nitrate sensors, bioluminescence, and...dimensional multiscale ocean variability: Massachusetts Bay. Journal of Marine Systems, Special issue on “Three-dimensional ocean circulation: Lagrangian...Oceanography”, T. Paluszkiewicz and S. Harper, Eds., Vol. 19, 1, 172-183. Liang, X.S. and Anderson, D.G.M. (2007) Multiscale Window Transform, SIAM J

Climate Prediction Center - Atlantic Hurricane Outlook

Science.gov (United States)

Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Prediction Center Home Site Map News ; Seasonal Climate Summary Archive The 2018 Atlantic hurricane season outlook is an official product of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC). The outlook is

Dispersal from deep ocean sources: physical and related scientific processes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Robinson, A.R.; Kupferman, S.L.

1985-02-01

This report presents the results of the workshop ''Dispersal from Deep Ocean Sources: Physical and Related Scientific Processes,'' together with subsequent developments and syntheses of the material discussed there. The project was undertaken to develop usable predictive descriptions of dispersal from deep oceanic sources. Relatively simple theoretical models embodying modern ocean physics were applied, and observational and experimental data bases were exploited. All known physical processes relevant to the dispersal of passive, conservative tracers were discussed, and contact points for inclusion of nonconservative processes (biological and chemical) were identified. Numerical estimates of the amplitude, space, and time scales of dispersion were made for various mechanisms that control the evolution of the dispersal as the material spreads from a bottom point source to small-, meso-, and world-ocean scales. Recommendations for additional work are given. The volume is presented as a handbook of dispersion processes. It is intended to be updated as new results become available

Ocean tides

Science.gov (United States)

Hendershott, M. C.

1975-01-01

A review of recent developments in the study of ocean tides and related phenomena is presented. Topics briefly discussed include: the mechanism by which tidal dissipation occurs; continental shelf, marginal sea, and baroclinic tides; estimation of the amount of energy stored in the tide; the distribution of energy over the ocean; the resonant frequencies and Q factors of oceanic normal modes; the relationship of earth tides and ocean tides; and numerical global tidal models.

Ocean acidification and marine microorganisms: responses and consequences

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Surajit Das

2015-10-01

Full Text Available Ocean acidification (OA is one of the global issues caused by rising atmospheric CO2. The rising pCO2 and resulting pH decrease has altered ocean carbonate chemistry. Microbes are key components of marine environments involved in nutrient cycles and carbon flow in marine ecosystems. However, these marine microbes and the microbial processes are sensitive to ocean pH shift. Thus, OA affects the microbial diversity, primary productivity and trace gases emission in oceans. Apart from that, it can also manipulate the microbial activities such as quorum sensing, extracellular enzyme activity and nitrogen cycling. Short-term laboratory experiments, mesocosm studies and changing marine diversity scenarios have illustrated undesirable effects of OA on marine microorganisms and ecosystems. However, from the microbial perspective, the current understanding on effect of OA is based mainly on limited experimental studies. It is challenging to predict response of marine microbes based on such experiments for this complex process. To study the response of marine microbes towards OA, multiple approaches should be implemented by using functional genomics, new generation microscopy, small-scale interaction among organisms and/or between organic matter and organisms. This review focuses on the response of marine microorganisms to OA and the experimental approaches to investigate the effect of changing ocean carbonate chemistry on microbial mediated processes.

Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall associated with ENSO and its Predictability

Science.gov (United States)

Shin, C. S.; Huang, B.; Zhu, J.; Marx, L.; Kinter, J. L.; Shukla, J.

2015-12-01

The leading modes of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) rainfall variability and their seasonal predictability are investigated using the CFSv2 hindcasts initialized from multiple ocean analyses over the period of 1979-2008 and observation-based analyses. It is shown that the two leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes of the observed ASM rainfall anomalies, which together account for about 34% of total variance, largely correspond to the ASM responses to the ENSO influences during the summers of the developing and decaying years of a Pacific anomalous event, respectively. These two ASM modes are then designated as the contemporary and delayed ENSO responses, respectively. It is demonstrated that the CFSv2 is capable of predicting these two dominant ASM modes up to the lead of 5 months. More importantly, the predictability of the ASM rainfall are much higher with respect to the delayed ENSO mode than the contemporary one, with the predicted principal component time series of the former maintaining high correlation skill and small ensemble spread with all lead months whereas the latter shows significant degradation in both measures with lead-time. A composite analysis for the ASM rainfall anomalies of all warm ENSO events in this period substantiates the finding that the ASM is more predictable following an ENSO event. The enhanced predictability mainly comes from the evolution of the warm SST anomalies over the Indian Ocean in the spring of the ENSO maturing phases and the persistence of the anomalous high sea surface pressure over the western Pacific in the subsequent summer, which the hindcasts are able to capture reasonably well. The results also show that the ensemble initialization with multiple ocean analyses improves the CFSv2's prediction skill of both ENSO and ASM rainfall. In fact, the skills of the ensemble mean hindcasts initialized from the four different ocean analyses are always equivalent to the best ones initialized from any individual ocean

The Ocean Carbon States Database: a proof-of-concept application of cluster analysis in the ocean carbon cycle

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Latto

2018-03-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we present a database of the basic regimes of the carbon cycle in the ocean, the ocean carbon states, as obtained using a data mining/pattern recognition technique in observation-based as well as model data. The goal of this study is to establish a new data analysis methodology, test it and assess its utility in providing more insights into the regional and temporal variability of the marine carbon cycle. This is important as advanced data mining techniques are becoming widely used in climate and Earth sciences and in particular in studies of the global carbon cycle, where the interaction of physical and biogeochemical drivers confounds our ability to accurately describe, understand, and predict CO2 concentrations and their changes in the major planetary carbon reservoirs. In this proof-of-concept study, we focus on using well-understood data that are based on observations, as well as model results from the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS climate model. Our analysis shows that ocean carbon states are associated with the subtropical–subpolar gyre during the colder months of the year and the tropics during the warmer season in the North Atlantic basin. Conversely, in the Southern Ocean, the ocean carbon states can be associated with the subtropical and Antarctic convergence zones in the warmer season and the coastal Antarctic divergence zone in the colder season. With respect to model evaluation, we find that the GISS model reproduces the cold and warm season regimes more skillfully in the North Atlantic than in the Southern Ocean and matches the observed seasonality better than the spatial distribution of the regimes. Finally, the ocean carbon states provide useful information in the model error attribution. Model air–sea CO2 flux biases in the North Atlantic stem from wind speed and salinity biases in the subpolar region and nutrient and wind speed biases in the subtropics and tropics. Nutrient biases are shown

Modeling study on nuclide transport in ocean - an ocean compartment method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Youn Myoung; Suh, Kyung Suk; Han, Kyoung Won

1991-01-01

An ocean compartment model simulating transport of nuclides by advection due to ocean circulation and interaction with suspended sediments is developed, by which concentration breakthrough curves of nuclides can be calculated as a function of time. Dividing ocean into arbitrary number of characteristic compartments and performing a balance of mass of nuclides in each ocean compartment, the governing equation for the concentration in the ocean is obtained and a solution by the numerical integration is obtained. The integration method is specially useful for general stiff systems. For transfer coefficients describing advective transport between adjacent compartments by ocean circulation, the ocean turnover time is calculated by a two-dimensional numerical ocean method. To exemplify the compartment model, a reference case calculation for breakthrough curves of three nuclides in low-level radioactive wastes, Tc-99, Cs-137, and Pu-238 released from hypothetical repository under the seabed is carried out with five ocean compartments. Sensitivity analysis studies for some parameters to the concentration breakthrough curves are also made, which indicates that parameters such as ocean turnover time and ocean water volume of compartments have an important effect on the breakthrough curves. (Author)

Ocean acidification impact on copepod swimming and mating behavior: consequences for population dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Seuront, L.

2010-12-01

There is now ample evidence that ocean acidification caused by the uptake of additional carbon dioxide from the atmosphere at the ocean surface will severely impact on marine ecosystem structure and function. To date, most research effort has focused on the impact of ocean acidification on calcifying marine organisms. These include the dissolution of calcifying plankton, reduced growth and shell thickness in gastropods and echinoderms and declining growth of reef-building corals. The effects of increasing the partial pressure in carbon dioxide and decreasing carbonate concentrations on various aspects of phytoplankton biology and ecology have received some attention. It has also recently been shown that the ability of fish larvae to discriminate between the olfactory cues of different habitat types at settlement and to detect predator olfactory cues are impaired at the level of ocean acidification predicted to occur around 2100 on a business-as-usual scenario of CO2 emissions. Average ocean pH has decreased by 0.1 units since the pre-industrial times, and it is predicted to decline another 0.3-0.4 units by 2100, which nearly corresponds to a doubling PCO2. In addition, some locations are expected to exhibit an even greater than predicted rate of decline. In this context, understanding the direct and indirect links between ocean acidification and the mortality of marine species is critical, especially for minute planktonic organisms such as copepods at the base of the ocean food chains. In this context, this work tested if ocean acidification could affect copepod swimming behavior, and subsequently affect, and ultimately disrupt, the ability of male copepods to detect and follow the pheromone plume produced by conspecific females. To ensure the generality and the ecological relevance of the present work, the species used for the experimentation are two of the most common zooplankton species found in estuarine and coastal waters of the Northern Hemisphere, the

UK Environmental Prediction - integration and evaluation at the convective scale

Science.gov (United States)

Fallmann, Joachim; Lewis, Huw; Castillo, Juan Manuel; Pearson, David; Harris, Chris; Saulter, Andy; Bricheno, Lucy; Blyth, Eleanor

2016-04-01

Traditionally, the simulation of regional ocean, wave and atmosphere components of the Earth System have been considered separately, with some information on other components provided by means of boundary or forcing conditions. More recently, the potential value of a more integrated approach, as required for global climate and Earth System prediction, for regional short-term applications has begun to gain increasing research effort. In the UK, this activity is motivated by an understanding that accurate prediction and warning of the impacts of severe weather requires an integrated approach to forecasting. The substantial impacts on individuals, businesses and infrastructure of such events indicate a pressing need to understand better the value that might be delivered through more integrated environmental prediction. To address this need, the Met Office, NERC Centre for Ecology & Hydrology and NERC National Oceanography Centre have begun to develop the foundations of a coupled high resolution probabilistic forecast system for the UK at km-scale. This links together existing model components of the atmosphere, coastal ocean, land surface and hydrology. Our initial focus has been on a 2-year Prototype project to demonstrate the UK coupled prediction concept in research mode. This presentation will provide an update on UK environmental prediction activities. We will present the results from the initial implementation of an atmosphere-land-ocean coupled system, including a new eddy-permitting resolution ocean component, and discuss progress and initial results from further development to integrate wave interactions in this relatively high resolution system. We will discuss future directions and opportunities for collaboration in environmental prediction, and the challenges to realise the potential of integrated regional coupled forecasting for improving predictions and applications.

Effect of horizontal displacements due to ocean tide loading on the determination of polar motion and UT1

Science.gov (United States)

Scherneck, Hans-Georg; Haas, Rüdiger

We show the influence of horizontal displacements due to ocean tide loading on the determination of polar motion and UT1 (PMU) on the daily and subdaily timescale. So called ‘virtual PMU variations’ due to modelling errors of ocean tide loading are predicted for geodetic Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) networks. This leads to errors of subdaily determination of PMU. The predicted effects are confirmed by the analysis of geodetic VLBI observations.

Coupled assimilation for an intermediated coupled ENSO prediction model

Science.gov (United States)

Zheng, Fei; Zhu, Jiang

2010-10-01

The value of coupled assimilation is discussed using an intermediate coupled model in which the wind stress is the only atmospheric state which is slavery to model sea surface temperature (SST). In the coupled assimilation analysis, based on the coupled wind-ocean state covariance calculated from the coupled state ensemble, the ocean state is adjusted by assimilating wind data using the ensemble Kalman filter. As revealed by a series of assimilation experiments using simulated observations, the coupled assimilation of wind observations yields better results than the assimilation of SST observations. Specifically, the coupled assimilation of wind observations can help to improve the accuracy of the surface and subsurface currents because the correlation between the wind and ocean currents is stronger than that between SST and ocean currents in the equatorial Pacific. Thus, the coupled assimilation of wind data can decrease the initial condition errors in the surface/subsurface currents that can significantly contribute to SST forecast errors. The value of the coupled assimilation of wind observations is further demonstrated by comparing the prediction skills of three 12-year (1997-2008) hindcast experiments initialized by the ocean-only assimilation scheme that assimilates SST observations, the coupled assimilation scheme that assimilates wind observations, and a nudging scheme that nudges the observed wind stress data, respectively. The prediction skills of two assimilation schemes are significantly better than those of the nudging scheme. The prediction skills of assimilating wind observations are better than assimilating SST observations. Assimilating wind observations for the 2007/2008 La Niña event triggers better predictions, while assimilating SST observations fails to provide an early warning for that event.

Ocean Acidification and Coral Reefs: An Emerging Big Picture

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

John E. N. Veron

2011-05-01

Full Text Available This article summarises the sometimes controversial contributions made by the different sciences to predict the path of ocean acidification impacts on the diversity of coral reefs during the present century. Although the seawater carbonate system has been known for a long time, the understanding of acidification impacts on marine biota is in its infancy. Most publications about ocean acidification are less than a decade old and over half are about coral reefs. Contributions from physiological studies, particularly of coral calcification, have covered such a wide spectrum of variables that no cohesive picture of the mechanisms involved has yet emerged. To date, these studies show that coral calcification varies with carbonate ion availability which, in turn controls aragonite saturation. They also reveal synergies between acidification and the better understood role of elevated temperature. Ecological studies are unlikely to reveal much detail except for the observations of the effects of carbon dioxide springs in reefs. Although ocean acidification events are not well constrained in the geological record, recent studies show that they are clearly linked to extinction events including four of the five greatest crises in the history of coral reefs. However, as ocean acidification is now occurring faster than at any know time in the past, future predictions based on past events are in unchartered waters. Pooled evidence to date indicates that ocean acidification will be severely affecting reefs by mid century and will have reduced them to ecologically collapsed carbonate platforms by the century’s end. This review concludes that most impacts will be synergistic and that the primary outcome will be a progressive reduction of species diversity correlated with habitat loss and widespread extinctions in most metazoan phyla.

Depth Dependent Relationships between Temperature and Ocean Heterotrophic Prokaryotic Production

KAUST Repository

Lønborg, Christian

2016-06-07

Marine prokaryotes play a key role in cycling of organic matter and nutrients in the ocean. Using a unique dataset (>14,500 samples), we applied a space-for-time substitution analysis to assess the temperature dependence of prokaryotic heterotrophic production (PHP) in epi- (0-200 m), meso- (201-1000 m) and bathypelagic waters (1001-4000 m) of the global ocean. Here, we show that the temperature dependence of PHP is fundamentally different between these major oceanic depth layers, with an estimated ecosystem-level activation energy (E) of 36 ± 7 kJ mol for the epipelagic, 72 ± 15 kJ mol for the mesopelagic and 274 ± 65 kJ mol for the bathypelagic realm. We suggest that the increasing temperature dependence with depth is related to the parallel vertical gradient in the proportion of recalcitrant organic compounds. These Ea predict an increased PHP of about 5, 12, and 55% in the epi-, meso-, and bathypelagic ocean, respectively, in response to a water temperature increase by 1°C. Hence, there is indication that a major thus far underestimated feedback mechanism exists between future bathypelagic ocean warming and heterotrophic prokaryotic activity.

Depth Dependent Relationships between Temperature and Ocean Heterotrophic Prokaryotic Production

KAUST Repository

Lø nborg, Christian; Cuevas, L. Antonio; Reinthaler, Thomas; Herndl, Gerhard J.; Gasol, Josep M.; Moran, Xose Anxelu G.; Bates, Nicholas R.; á lvarez-Salgado, Xosé A.

2016-01-01

Marine prokaryotes play a key role in cycling of organic matter and nutrients in the ocean. Using a unique dataset (>14,500 samples), we applied a space-for-time substitution analysis to assess the temperature dependence of prokaryotic heterotrophic production (PHP) in epi- (0-200 m), meso- (201-1000 m) and bathypelagic waters (1001-4000 m) of the global ocean. Here, we show that the temperature dependence of PHP is fundamentally different between these major oceanic depth layers, with an estimated ecosystem-level activation energy (E) of 36 ± 7 kJ mol for the epipelagic, 72 ± 15 kJ mol for the mesopelagic and 274 ± 65 kJ mol for the bathypelagic realm. We suggest that the increasing temperature dependence with depth is related to the parallel vertical gradient in the proportion of recalcitrant organic compounds. These Ea predict an increased PHP of about 5, 12, and 55% in the epi-, meso-, and bathypelagic ocean, respectively, in response to a water temperature increase by 1°C. Hence, there is indication that a major thus far underestimated feedback mechanism exists between future bathypelagic ocean warming and heterotrophic prokaryotic activity.

An assessment of ten ocean reanalyses in the polar regions

Science.gov (United States)

Uotila, Petteri

2017-04-01

Ocean reanalysis (ORA) combines observations either statistically or with a hydrodynamical model, to reconstruct historical changes in the ocean. Global and regional ORA products are increasingly used in polar research, but their quality remains to be systematically assessed. To address this, the Polar ORA Intercomparison Project (PORA-IP) has been established following on from the ORA-IP project (Balmaseda et al. 2015, with other papers in a special issue of Climate Dynamics). The PORA-IP is constituted under the COST EOS initiative with plans to review reanalyses products in both the Arctic and Antarctic, and is endorsed by YOPP - the Year of Polar Prediction project. Currently, the PORA-IP team consists of 21 researchers from 15 institutes and universities. The ORA-IP products with polar physics, such as sea ice, have been updated where necessary and collected in a public database. In addition to model output, available observational polar climatologies are collected and used in the assessments. Due to the extensive variety of products, this database should become a valuable resource outside the PORA-IP community. For a comprehensive evaluation of the ten ORA products (CGLORSv5, ECDA3.1, GECCO2, Glorys2v4, GloSea5_GO5, MOVEG2i, ORAP5, SODA3.3.1, TOPAZ4 and UR025.4) in the Arctic and Southern Oceans several specific diagnostics are assessed. The PORA-IP diagnostics target the following topics: hydrography; heat, salinity and freshwater content; ocean transports and surface currents; mixed layer depth; sea-ice concentration and thickness; and snow thickness over sea ice. Based on these diagnostics, ORA product biases against observed data and their mutual spread are quantified, and possible reasons for discrepancies discussed. So far, we have identified product outliers and evaluated the multi-model mean. We have identified the importance of the atmospheric forcing, air-ocean coupling protocol and sea-ice data assimilation for the product performance. Moreover, we

USGS Arctic Ocean carbon cruise 2010: field activity H-03-10-AR to collect carbon data in the Arctic Ocean, August - September 2010

Science.gov (United States)

Robbins, Lisa L.; Yates, Kimberly K.; Gove, Matthew D.; Knorr, Paul O.; Wynn, Jonathan; Byrne, Robert H.; Liu, Xuewu

2013-01-01

Carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere is absorbed at the surface of the ocean by reacting with seawater to form carbonic acid, a weak, naturally occurring acid. As atmospheric carbon dioxide increases, the concentration of carbonic acid in seawater also increases, causing a decrease in ocean pH and carbonate mineral saturation states, a process known as ocean acidification. The oceans have absorbed approximately 525 billion tons of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, or about one-quarter to one-third of the anthropogenic carbon emissions released since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution (Sabine and others, 2004). Global surveys of ocean chemistry have revealed that seawater pH has decreased by about 0.1 units (from a pH of 8.2 to 8.1) since the 1700s due to absorption of carbon dioxide (Caldeira and Wickett, 2003; Orr and others, 2005; Raven and others, 2005). Modeling studies, based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) CO2 emission scenarios, predict that atmospheric carbon dioxide levels could reach more than 500 parts per million (ppm) by the middle of this century and 800 ppm by the year 2100, causing an additional decrease in surface water pH of 0.3 pH units. Ocean acidification is a global threat and is already having profound and deleterious effects on the geology, biology, chemistry, and socioeconomic resources of coastal and marine habitats (Raven and others, 2005; Ruttiman, 2006). The polar and sub-polar seas have been identified as the bellwethers for global ocean acidification.

USGS Arctic Ocean carbon cruise 2011: field activity H-01-11-AR to collect carbon data in the Arctic Ocean, August - September 2011

Science.gov (United States)

Robbins, Lisa L.; Yates, Kimberly K.; Knorr, Paul O.; Wynn, Jonathan; Lisle, John; Buczkowski, Brian J.; Moore, Barbara; Mayer, Larry; Armstrong, Andrew; Byrne, Robert H.; Liu, Xuewu

2013-01-01

Carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere is absorbed at the surface of the ocean by reacting with seawater to form a weak, naturally occurring acid called carbonic acid. As atmospheric carbon dioxide increases, the concentration of carbonic acid in seawater also increases, causing a decrease in ocean pH and carbonate mineral saturation states, a process known as ocean acidification. The oceans have absorbed approximately 525 billion tons of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, or about one-quarter to one-third of the anthropogenic carbon emissions released since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution (Sabine and others, 2004). Global surveys of ocean chemistry have revealed that seawater pH has decreased by about 0.1 units (from a pH of 8.2 to 8.1) since the 1700s due to absorption of carbon dioxide (Caldeira and Wickett, 2003; Orr and others, 2005; Raven and others, 2005). Modeling studies, based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) CO2 emission scenarios, predict that atmospheric carbon dioxide levels could reach more than 500 parts per million (ppm) by the middle of this century and 800 ppm by the year 2100, causing an additional decrease in surface water pH of 0.3 pH units. Ocean acidification is a global threat and is already having profound and deleterious effects on the geology, biology, chemistry, and socioeconomic resources of coastal and marine habitats (Raven and others, 2005; Ruttiman, 2006). The polar and sub-polar seas have been identified as the bellwethers for global ocean acidification.

Calcification persists with CO2-induced ocean acidification but decreases with warming for the Caribbean coral Siderastrea siderea

Science.gov (United States)

Castillo, K. D.; Ries, J. B.; Westfield, I. T.; Weiss, J. M.; Bruno, J. F.

2012-12-01

Atmospheric carbon dioxide (pCO2) induced ocean acidification and rising seawater temperatures are identified as two of the greatest threats to modern coral reefs. Within this century, surface seawater pH is expected to decrease by at least 0.3 units, and sea surface temperature is predicted to rise by 1 to 3 °C. However, uncertainty remains as to whether ocean acidification or ocean warming will have a more deleterious impact on coral reefs by the end of the century. Here, we present results of 95-day laboratory experiments in which we investigated the impact of CO2-induced ocean acidification and temperature on the calcification rate of the tropical reef-building zooxanthellate scleractinian coral Siderastrea siderea. We found that calcification rates for S. siderea, estimated from buoyant weighing, increased as pCO2 increased from a pre-industrial value of 324 ppm to a near-present-day value of 477 ppm, remained unchanged as pCO2 increased from 477 ppm to the predicted end-of-century value of 604 ppm, and only declined at 6-times the modern pCO2 value of 2553 ppm. Corals reared at average pCO2 of 488 ppm and at temperatures of 25 and 32 °C, approximately the lower and upper temperature extremes for this species, calcified at lower rates relative to corals reared at 28 °C under equivalent pCO2. These results support the existing evidence that scleractinian corals such as S. siderea are able to manipulate the carbonate chemistry at their calcification site, enabling them to maintain their calcification rates under elevated pCO2 levels predicted for the end of this century. However, exposure of S. siderea corals to sea surface temperatures predicted for tropical waters for the end of this century grossly impaired their rate of calcification. These findings suggest that ocean warming poses a more immediate threat to the coral S. siderea than does ocean acidification, at least under scenarios (B1, A1T, and B2) predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Evolution of Planetary Ice-Ocean Systems: Effects of Salinity

Science.gov (United States)

Allu Peddinti, D.; McNamara, A. K.

2015-12-01

Planetary oceanography is enjoying renewed attention thanks to not only the detection of several exoplanetary ocean worlds but also due to the expanding family of ocean worlds within our own star system. Our solar system is now believed to host about nine ocean worlds including Earth, some dwarf planets and few moons of Jupiter and Saturn. Amongst them, Europa, like Earth is thought to have an ice Ih-liquid water system. However, the thickness of the Europan ice-ocean system is much larger than that of the Earth. The evolution of this system would determine the individual thicknesses of the ice shell and the ocean. In turn, these thicknesses can alter the course of evolution of the system. In a pure H2O system, the thickness of the ice shell would govern if heat loss occurs entirely by conduction or if the shell begins to convect as it attains a threshold thickness. This switch between conduction-convection regimes could determine the longevity of the subsurface ocean and hence define the astrobiological potential of the planetary body at any given time. In reality, however, the system is not pure water ice. The detected induced magnetic field infers a saline ocean layer. Salts are expected to act as an anti-freeze allowing a subsurface ocean to persist over long periods but the amount of salts would determine the extent of that effect. In our current study, we use geodynamic models to examine the effect of salinity on the evolution of ice-ocean system. An initial ocean with different salinities is allowed to evolve. The effect of salinity on thickness of the two layers at any time is examined. We also track how salinity controls the switch between conductive-convective modes. The study shows that for a given time period, larger salinities can maintain a thick vigorously convecting ocean while the smaller salinities behave similar to a pure H2O system leading to a thick convecting ice-shell. A range of salinities identified can potentially predict the current state

LIGHT SCATTERING FROM EXOPLANET OCEANS AND ATMOSPHERES

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zugger, M. E.; Kane, T. J.; Kasting, J. F.; Williams, D. M.; Philbrick, C. R.

2010-01-01

Orbital variation in reflected starlight from exoplanets could eventually be used to detect surface oceans. Exoplanets with rough surfaces, or dominated by atmospheric Rayleigh scattering, should reach peak brightness in full phase, orbital longitude (OL) = 180 0 , whereas ocean planets with transparent atmospheres should reach peak brightness in crescent phase near OL = 30 0 . Application of Fresnel theory to a planet with no atmosphere covered by a calm ocean predicts a peak polarization fraction of 1 at OL = 74 0 ; however, our model shows that clouds, wind-driven waves, aerosols, absorption, and Rayleigh scattering in the atmosphere and within the water column dilute the polarization fraction and shift the peak to other OLs. Observing at longer wavelengths reduces the obfuscation of the water polarization signature by Rayleigh scattering but does not mitigate the other effects. Planets with thick Rayleigh scattering atmospheres reach peak polarization near OL = 90 0 , but clouds and Lambertian surface scattering dilute and shift this peak to smaller OL. A shifted Rayleigh peak might be mistaken for a water signature unless data from multiple wavelength bands are available. Our calculations suggest that polarization alone may not positively identify the presence of an ocean under an Earth-like atmosphere; however, polarization adds another dimension which can be used, in combination with unpolarized orbital light curves and contrast ratios, to detect extrasolar oceans, atmospheric water aerosols, and water clouds. Additionally, the presence and direction of the polarization vector could be used to determine planet association with the star, and constrain orbit inclination.

A Trip Through the Virtual Ocean: Understanding Basic Oceanic Process Using Real Data and Collaborative Learning

Science.gov (United States)

Hastings, D. W.

2012-12-01

How can we effectively teach undergraduates the fundamentals of physical, chemical and biological processes in the ocean? Understanding physical circulation and biogeochemical processes is essential, yet it can be difficult for an undergraduate to easily grasp important concepts such as using temperature and salinity as conservative tracers, nutrient distribution, ageing of water masses, and thermocline variability. Like many other topics, it is best learned not in a lecture setting, but working with real data: plotting values, making predictions, and making mistakes. Part I: Using temperature and salinity values from any location in the world ocean (World Ocean Atlas), combined with an excellent user interface (http://ferret.pmel.noaa.gov), students are asked to answer a series of specific questions related to ocean circulation. Using established temperature and salinity values to characterize different water masses, students are able to identify various water masses and gain insight to physical circulation processes. Questions related to ocean circulation include: How far south and at what depth does NADW extend into the S. Atlantic? Is deep water formed in the North Pacific? How and why does the depth of the thermocline vary with latitude in the Atlantic Ocean? How deep does the Mediterranean Water descend as it leaves the Straits of Gibraltar? How far into the Atlantic can you see the influence of the Amazon River? Is there any Antarctic Bottom Water in the North Pacific? Collaborating with another student typically leads to increased engagement. Especially in large lecture settings, where one teacher is not able to address student questions or concerns, working in pairs or in groups of three is best. Part II: Using the same web-based viewer and data set students are subsequently assigned one oceanic property (phosphate, nitrate, silicate, O2, or AOU) and asked to construct three different plots: 1) vertical depth profile at one location; 2) latitude vs. depth

Ocean Tide Influences on the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets

Science.gov (United States)

Padman, Laurie; Siegfried, Matthew R.; Fricker, Helen A.

2018-03-01

Ocean tides are the main source of high-frequency variability in the vertical and horizontal motion of ice sheets near their marine margins. Floating ice shelves, which occupy about three quarters of the perimeter of Antarctica and the termini of four outlet glaciers in northern Greenland, rise and fall in synchrony with the ocean tide. Lateral motion of floating and grounded portions of ice sheets near their marine margins can also include a tidal component. These tide-induced signals provide insight into the processes by which the oceans can affect ice sheet mass balance and dynamics. In this review, we summarize in situ and satellite-based measurements of the tidal response of ice shelves and grounded ice, and spatial variability of ocean tide heights and currents around the ice sheets. We review sensitivity of tide heights and currents as ocean geometry responds to variations in sea level, ice shelf thickness, and ice sheet mass and extent. We then describe coupled ice-ocean models and analytical glacier models that quantify the effect of ocean tides on lower-frequency ice sheet mass loss and motion. We suggest new observations and model developments to improve the representation of tides in coupled models that are used to predict future ice sheet mass loss and the associated contribution to sea level change. The most critical need is for new data to improve maps of bathymetry, ice shelf draft, spatial variability of the drag coefficient at the ice-ocean interface, and higher-resolution models with improved representation of tidal energy sinks.

Ocean Robotic Networks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schofield, Oscar [Rutgers University

2012-05-23

We live on an ocean planet which is central to regulating the Earth’s climate and human society. Despite the importance of understanding the processes operating in the ocean, it remains chronically undersampled due to the harsh operating conditions. This is problematic given the limited long term information available about how the ocean is changing. The changes include rising sea level, declining sea ice, ocean acidification, and the decline of mega fauna. While the changes are daunting, oceanography is in the midst of a technical revolution with the expansion of numerical modeling techniques, combined with ocean robotics. Operating together, these systems represent a new generation of ocean observatories. I will review the evolution of these ocean observatories and provide a few case examples of the science that they enable, spanning from the waters offshore New Jersey to the remote waters of the Southern Ocean.

Assessing the potential long-term increase of oceanic fossil fuel CO2 uptake due to CO2-calcification feedback

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T. M. Lenton

2007-07-01

Full Text Available Plankton manipulation experiments exhibit a wide range of sensitivities of biogenic calcification to simulated anthropogenic acidification of the ocean, with the "lab rat" of planktic calcifiers, Emiliania huxleyi apparently not representative of calcification generally. We assess the implications of this observational uncertainty by creating an ensemble of realizations of an Earth system model that encapsulates a comparable range of uncertainty in calcification response to ocean acidification. We predict that a substantial reduction in marine carbonate production is possible in the future, with enhanced ocean CO2 sequestration across the model ensemble driving a 4–13% reduction in the year 3000 atmospheric fossil fuel CO2 burden. Concurrent changes in ocean circulation and surface temperatures in the model contribute about one third to the increase in CO2 uptake. We find that uncertainty in the predicted strength of CO2-calcification feedback seems to be dominated by the assumption as to which species of calcifier contribute most to carbonate production in the open ocean.

Applications of Data Assimilation to Analysis of the Ocean on Large Scales

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, Robert N.; Busalacchi, Antonio J.; Hackert, Eric C.

1997-01-01

It is commonplace to begin talks on this topic by noting that oceanographic data are too scarce and sparse to provide complete initial and boundary conditions for large-scale ocean models. Even considering the availability of remotely-sensed data such as radar altimetry from the TOPEX and ERS-1 satellites, a glance at a map of available subsurface data should convince most observers that this is still the case. Data are still too sparse for comprehensive treatment of interannual to interdecadal climate change through the use of models, since the new data sets have not been around for very long. In view of the dearth of data, we must note that the overall picture is changing rapidly. Recently, there have been a number of large scale ocean analysis and prediction efforts, some of which now run on an operational or at least quasi-operational basis, most notably the model based analyses of the tropical oceans. These programs are modeled on numerical weather prediction. Aside from the success of the global tide models, assimilation of data in the tropics, in support of prediction and analysis of seasonal to interannual climate change, is probably the area of large scale ocean modeling and data assimilation in which the most progress has been made. Climate change is a problem which is particularly suited to advanced data assimilation methods. Linear models are useful, and the linear theory can be exploited. For the most part, the data are sufficiently sparse that implementation of advanced methods is worthwhile. As an example of a large scale data assimilation experiment with a recent extensive data set, we present results of a tropical ocean experiment in which the Kalman filter was used to assimilate three years of altimetric data from Geosat into a coarsely resolved linearized long wave shallow water model. Since nonlinear processes dominate the local dynamic signal outside the tropics, subsurface dynamical quantities cannot be reliably inferred from surface height

The Ocean deserts:salt budgets of northern subtropical oceans and their

KAUST Repository

Carton, Jim

2011-04-09

The Ocean deserts: salt budgets of northern subtropical oceans and their relationship to climate variability The high salinity near surface pools of the subtropical oceans are the oceanic deserts, with high levels of evaporation and low levels of precip

National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 1997-01-01 to 2007-09-05

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) was developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center, the...

International Search for Life in Ocean Worlds

Science.gov (United States)

Sherwood, B.

2015-12-01

We now know that our solar system contains diverse "ocean worlds." One has abundant surface water and life; another had significant surface water in the distant past and has drawn significant exploration attention; several contain large amounts of water beneath ice shells; and several others evince unexpected, diverse transient or dynamic water-related processes. In this century, humanity will explore these worlds, searching for life beyond Earth and seeking thereby to understand the limits of habitability. Of our ocean worlds, Enceladus presents a unique combination of attributes: large reservoir of subsurface water already known to contain salts, organics, and silica nanoparticles originating from hydrothermal activity; and able to be sampled via a plume predictably expressed into space. These special circumstances immediately tag Enceladus as a key destination for potential missions to search for evidence of non-Earth life, and lead to a range of potential mission concepts: for orbital reconnaissance; in situ and returned-sample analysis of plume and surface-fallback material; and direct sulcus, vent, cavern, and ocean exploration. Each mission type can address a unique set of science questions, and would require a unique set of capabilities, most of which are not yet developed. Both the questions and the capability developments can be sequenced into a programmatic precedence network, the realization of which requires international cooperation. Three factors make this true: exploring remote oceans autonomously will cost a lot; the Outer Space Treaty governs planetary protection; and discovery of non-Earth life is an epochal human imperative. Results of current planning will be presented in AGU session 8599: how ocean-world science questions and capability requirements can be parsed into programmatically acceptable mission increments; how one mission proposed into the Discovery program in 2015 would take the next step on this path; the Decadal calendar of

Downscaling ocean conditions: Experiments with a quasi-geostrophic model

Science.gov (United States)

Katavouta, A.; Thompson, K. R.

2013-12-01

The predictability of small-scale ocean variability, given the time history of the associated large-scales, is investigated using a quasi-geostrophic model of two wind-driven gyres separated by an unstable, mid-ocean jet. Motivated by the recent theoretical study of Henshaw et al. (2003), we propose a straightforward method for assimilating information on the large-scale in order to recover the small-scale details of the quasi-geostrophic circulation. The similarity of this method to the spectral nudging of limited area atmospheric models is discussed. Results from the spectral nudging of the quasi-geostrophic model, and an independent multivariate regression-based approach, show that important features of the ocean circulation, including the position of the meandering mid-ocean jet and the associated pinch-off eddies, can be recovered from the time history of a small number of large-scale modes. We next propose a hybrid approach for assimilating both the large-scales and additional observed time series from a limited number of locations that alone are too sparse to recover the small scales using traditional assimilation techniques. The hybrid approach improved significantly the recovery of the small-scales. The results highlight the importance of the coupling between length scales in downscaling applications, and the value of assimilating limited point observations after the large-scales have been set correctly. The application of the hybrid and spectral nudging to practical ocean forecasting, and projecting changes in ocean conditions on climate time scales, is discussed briefly.

Wave hindcast experiments in the Indian Ocean using MIKE 21 SW ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Wave prediction and hindcast studies are important in ocean engineering, coastal ... wave data can be used for the assessment of wave climate in offshore and coastal areas. In the .... for the change in performance during SW monsoon.

Impact of ocean acidification and warming on the productivity of a rock pool community.

Science.gov (United States)

Legrand, Erwann; Riera, Pascal; Bohner, Olivier; Coudret, Jérôme; Schlicklin, Ferdinand; Derrien, Marie; Martin, Sophie

2018-05-01

This study examined experimentally the combined effect of ocean acidification and warming on the productivity of rock pool multi-specific assemblages, composed of coralline algae, fleshy algae, and grazers. Natural rock pool communities experience high environmental fluctuations. This may confer physiological advantage to rock pool communities when facing predicted acidification and warming. The effect of ocean acidification and warming have been assessed at both individual and assemblage level to examine the importance of species interactions in the response of assemblages. We hypothesized that rock pool assemblages have physiological advantage when facing predicted ocean acidification and warming. Species exhibited species-specific responses to increased temperature and pCO 2 . Increased temperature and pCO 2 have no effect on assemblage photosynthesis, which was mostly influenced by fleshy algal primary production. The response of coralline algae to ocean acidification and warming depended on the season, which evidenced the importance of physiological adaptations to their environment in their response to climate change. We suggest that rock pool assemblages are relatively robust to changes in temperature and pCO 2 , in terms of primary production. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Tropical Cyclone Induced Air-Sea Interactions Over Oceanic Fronts

Science.gov (United States)

Shay, L. K.

2012-12-01

Recent severe tropical cyclones underscore the inherent importance of warm background ocean fronts and their interactions with the atmospheric boundary layer. Central to the question of heat and moisture fluxes, the amount of heat available to the tropical cyclone is predicated by the initial mixed layer depth and strength of the stratification that essentially set the level of entrainment mixing at the base of the mixed layer. In oceanic regimes where the ocean mixed layers are thin, shear-induced mixing tends to cool the upper ocean to form cold wakes which reduces the air-sea fluxes. This is an example of negative feedback. By contrast, in regimes where the ocean mixed layers are deep (usually along the western part of the gyres), warm water advection by the nearly steady currents reduces the levels of turbulent mixing by shear instabilities. As these strong near-inertial shears are arrested, more heat and moisture transfers are available through the enthalpy fluxes (typically 1 to 1.5 kW m-2) into the hurricane boundary layer. When tropical cyclones move into favorable or neutral atmospheric conditions, tropical cyclones have a tendency to rapidly intensify as observed over the Gulf of Mexico during Isidore and Lili in 2002, Katrina, Rita and Wilma in 2005, Dean and Felix in 2007 in the Caribbean Sea, and Earl in 2010 just north of the Caribbean Islands. To predict these tropical cyclone deepening (as well as weakening) cycles, coupled models must have ocean models with realistic ocean conditions and accurate air-sea and vertical mixing parameterizations. Thus, to constrain these models, having complete 3-D ocean profiles juxtaposed with atmospheric profiler measurements prior, during and subsequent to passage is an absolute necessity framed within regional scale satellite derived fields.

Trends in continental temperature and humidity directly linked to ocean warming.

Science.gov (United States)

Byrne, Michael P; O'Gorman, Paul A

2018-05-08

In recent decades, the land surface has warmed substantially more than the ocean surface, and relative humidity has fallen over land. Amplified warming and declining relative humidity over land are also dominant features of future climate projections, with implications for climate-change impacts. An emerging body of research has shown how constraints from atmospheric dynamics and moisture budgets are important for projected future land-ocean contrasts, but these ideas have not been used to investigate temperature and humidity records over recent decades. Here we show how both the temperature and humidity changes observed over land between 1979 and 2016 are linked to warming over neighboring oceans. A simple analytical theory, based on atmospheric dynamics and moisture transport, predicts equal changes in moist static energy over land and ocean and equal fractional changes in specific humidity over land and ocean. The theory is shown to be consistent with the observed trends in land temperature and humidity given the warming over ocean. Amplified land warming is needed for the increase in moist static energy over drier land to match that over ocean, and land relative humidity decreases because land specific humidity is linked via moisture transport to the weaker warming over ocean. However, there is considerable variability about the best-fit trend in land relative humidity that requires further investigation and which may be related to factors such as changes in atmospheric circulations and land-surface properties.

Modeling selective pressures on phytoplankton in the global ocean.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jason G Bragg

Full Text Available Our view of marine microbes is transforming, as culture-independent methods facilitate rapid characterization of microbial diversity. It is difficult to assimilate this information into our understanding of marine microbe ecology and evolution, because their distributions, traits, and genomes are shaped by forces that are complex and dynamic. Here we incorporate diverse forces--physical, biogeochemical, ecological, and mutational--into a global ocean model to study selective pressures on a simple trait in a widely distributed lineage of picophytoplankton: the nitrogen use abilities of Synechococcus and Prochlorococcus cyanobacteria. Some Prochlorococcus ecotypes have lost the ability to use nitrate, whereas their close relatives, marine Synechococcus, typically retain it. We impose mutations for the loss of nitrogen use abilities in modeled picophytoplankton, and ask: in which parts of the ocean are mutants most disadvantaged by losing the ability to use nitrate, and in which parts are they least disadvantaged? Our model predicts that this selective disadvantage is smallest for picophytoplankton that live in tropical regions where Prochlorococcus are abundant in the real ocean. Conversely, the selective disadvantage of losing the ability to use nitrate is larger for modeled picophytoplankton that live at higher latitudes, where Synechococcus are abundant. In regions where we expect Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus populations to cycle seasonally in the real ocean, we find that model ecotypes with seasonal population dynamics similar to Prochlorococcus are less disadvantaged by losing the ability to use nitrate than model ecotypes with seasonal population dynamics similar to Synechococcus. The model predictions for the selective advantage associated with nitrate use are broadly consistent with the distribution of this ability among marine picocyanobacteria, and at finer scales, can provide insights into interactions between temporally varying

Modeling selective pressures on phytoplankton in the global ocean.

Science.gov (United States)

Bragg, Jason G; Dutkiewicz, Stephanie; Jahn, Oliver; Follows, Michael J; Chisholm, Sallie W

2010-03-10

Our view of marine microbes is transforming, as culture-independent methods facilitate rapid characterization of microbial diversity. It is difficult to assimilate this information into our understanding of marine microbe ecology and evolution, because their distributions, traits, and genomes are shaped by forces that are complex and dynamic. Here we incorporate diverse forces--physical, biogeochemical, ecological, and mutational--into a global ocean model to study selective pressures on a simple trait in a widely distributed lineage of picophytoplankton: the nitrogen use abilities of Synechococcus and Prochlorococcus cyanobacteria. Some Prochlorococcus ecotypes have lost the ability to use nitrate, whereas their close relatives, marine Synechococcus, typically retain it. We impose mutations for the loss of nitrogen use abilities in modeled picophytoplankton, and ask: in which parts of the ocean are mutants most disadvantaged by losing the ability to use nitrate, and in which parts are they least disadvantaged? Our model predicts that this selective disadvantage is smallest for picophytoplankton that live in tropical regions where Prochlorococcus are abundant in the real ocean. Conversely, the selective disadvantage of losing the ability to use nitrate is larger for modeled picophytoplankton that live at higher latitudes, where Synechococcus are abundant. In regions where we expect Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus populations to cycle seasonally in the real ocean, we find that model ecotypes with seasonal population dynamics similar to Prochlorococcus are less disadvantaged by losing the ability to use nitrate than model ecotypes with seasonal population dynamics similar to Synechococcus. The model predictions for the selective advantage associated with nitrate use are broadly consistent with the distribution of this ability among marine picocyanobacteria, and at finer scales, can provide insights into interactions between temporally varying ocean processes and

Intercomparison of Ocean Color Algorithms for Picophytoplankton Carbon in the Ocean

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Víctor Martínez-Vicente

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The differences among phytoplankton carbon (Cphy predictions from six ocean color algorithms are investigated by comparison with in situ estimates of phytoplankton carbon. The common satellite data used as input for the algorithms is the Ocean Color Climate Change Initiative merged product. The matching in situ data are derived from flow cytometric cell counts and per-cell carbon estimates for different types of pico-phytoplankton. This combination of satellite and in situ data provides a relatively large matching dataset (N > 500, which is independent from most of the algorithms tested and spans almost two orders of magnitude in Cphy. Results show that not a single algorithm outperforms any of the other when using all matching data. Concentrating on the oligotrophic regions (Chlorophyll-a concentration, B, less than 0.15 mg Chl m−3, where flow cytometric analysis captures most of the phytoplankton biomass, reveals significant differences in algorithm performance. The bias ranges from −35 to +150% and unbiased root mean squared difference from 5 to 10 mg C m−3 among algorithms, with chlorophyll-based algorithms performing better than the rest. The backscattering-based algorithms produce different results at the clearest waters and these differences are discussed in terms of the different algorithms used for optical particle backscattering coefficient (bbp retrieval.

Ocean One: A Robotic Avatar for Oceanic Discovery

KAUST Repository

Khatib, Oussama; Yeh, Xiyang; Brantner, Gerald; Soe, Brian; Kim, Boyeon; Ganguly, Shameek; Stuart, Hannah; Wang, Shiquan; Cutkosky, Mark; Edsinger, Aaron; Mullins, Phillip; Barham, Mitchell; Voolstra, Christian R.; Salama, Khaled N.; L'Hour, Michel; Creuze, Vincent

2016-01-01

The promise of oceanic discovery has long intrigued scientists and explorers, whether with the idea of studying underwater ecology and climate change or with the hope of uncovering natural resources and historic secrets buried deep in archaeological sites. This quest to explore the oceans requires skilled human access, yet much of the oceans are inaccessible to human divers; nearly ninetenths of the ocean floor is at 1 km or deeper [1]. Accessing these depths is imperative since factors such as pollution and deep-sea trawling threaten ecology and archaeological sites. While remotely operated vehicles (ROVs) are inadequate for the task, a robotic avatar could go where humans cannot and still embody human intelligence and intentions through immersive interfaces.

Ocean One: A Robotic Avatar for Oceanic Discovery

KAUST Repository

Khatib, Oussama

2016-11-11

The promise of oceanic discovery has long intrigued scientists and explorers, whether with the idea of studying underwater ecology and climate change or with the hope of uncovering natural resources and historic secrets buried deep in archaeological sites. This quest to explore the oceans requires skilled human access, yet much of the oceans are inaccessible to human divers; nearly ninetenths of the ocean floor is at 1 km or deeper [1]. Accessing these depths is imperative since factors such as pollution and deep-sea trawling threaten ecology and archaeological sites. While remotely operated vehicles (ROVs) are inadequate for the task, a robotic avatar could go where humans cannot and still embody human intelligence and intentions through immersive interfaces.

The self-consistent dynamic pole tide in non-global oceans

Science.gov (United States)

Dickman, S. R.

1988-01-01

The dynamic pole tide is determined by solving Laplace tide equations which take into account the presence of continents in oceans, oceanic self-gravitation and loading, and mantle elasticity. Dynamical effects are found to be only mild. It is shown that the dynamical pole tide contributes about one day more to the Chandler period than a static pole tide would, and dissipates wobble energy at a very weak rate. It is noted that, depending on the wobble period predicted for an oceanless elastic earth, mantle anelasticity at low frequencies may nevertheless contribute negligibly to the Chandler period.

Seasonal prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall in NCEP CFSv2: forecast and predictability error

Science.gov (United States)

Pokhrel, Samir; Saha, Subodh Kumar; Dhakate, Ashish; Rahman, Hasibur; Chaudhari, Hemantkumar S.; Salunke, Kiran; Hazra, Anupam; Sujith, K.; Sikka, D. R.

2016-04-01

A detailed analysis of sensitivity to the initial condition for the simulation of the Indian summer monsoon using retrospective forecast by the latest version of the Climate Forecast System version-2 (CFSv2) is carried out. This study primarily focuses on the tropical region of Indian and Pacific Ocean basin, with special emphasis on the Indian land region. The simulated seasonal mean and the inter-annual standard deviations of rainfall, upper and lower level atmospheric circulations and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) tend to be more skillful as the lead forecast time decreases (5 month lead to 0 month lead time i.e. L5-L0). In general spatial correlation (bias) increases (decreases) as forecast lead time decreases. This is further substantiated by their averaged value over the selected study regions over the Indian and Pacific Ocean basins. The tendency of increase (decrease) of model bias with increasing (decreasing) forecast lead time also indicates the dynamical drift of the model. Large scale lower level circulation (850 hPa) shows enhancement of anomalous westerlies (easterlies) over the tropical region of the Indian Ocean (Western Pacific Ocean), which indicates the enhancement of model error with the decrease in lead time. At the upper level circulation (200 hPa) biases in both tropical easterly jet and subtropical westerlies jet tend to decrease as the lead time decreases. Despite enhancement of the prediction skill, mean SST bias seems to be insensitive to the initialization. All these biases are significant and together they make CFSv2 vulnerable to seasonal uncertainties in all the lead times. Overall the zeroth lead (L0) seems to have the best skill, however, in case of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR), the 3 month lead forecast time (L3) has the maximum ISMR prediction skill. This is valid using different independent datasets, wherein these maximum skill scores are 0.64, 0.42 and 0.57 with respect to the Global Precipitation Climatology Project

Spacebased Observation of Water Balance Over Global Oceans

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, W.; Xie, X.

2008-12-01

We demonstrated that ocean surface fresh water flux less the water discharge into the ocean from river and ice melt balances the mass loss in the ocean both in magnitude and in the phase of annual variation. The surface water flux was computed from the divergence of the water transport integrated over the depth of the atmosphere. The atmospheric water transport is estimated from the precipitable water measured by Special Sensor Microwave Imager, the surface wind vector by QuikSCAT, and the NOAA cloud drift wind through a statistical model. The transport has been extensively validated using global radiosonde and data and operational numerical weather prediction results. Its divergence has been shown to agree with the difference between evaporation estimated from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer data and the precipitation measured by Tropical Rain Measuring Mission over the global tropical and subtropical oceans both in magnitude and geographical distribution for temporal scales ranging from intraseasonal to interannual. The water loss rate in the ocean is estimated by two methods, one is from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment and the other is by subtracting the climatological steric change from the sea level change measured by radar altimeter on Jason. Only climatological river discharge and ice melt from in situ measurements are available and the lack of temporal variation may contribute to discrepancies in the balance. We have successfully used the spacebased surface fluxes to estimate to climatological mean heat transport in the Atlantic ocean and is attempting to estimate the meridional fresh water (or salt) transport from the surface flux. The approximate closure of the water balance gives a powerful indirect validation of the spacebased products.

Signature of Europa's Ocean Density on Gravity Data

Science.gov (United States)

Castillo, J. C.; Rambaux, N.

2015-12-01

Observations by the Galileo mission at Europa and Cassini-Huygens mission at Europa, Ganymede, Callisto, Enceladus, and Titan have found deep oceans at these objects with evidence for the presence of salts. Salt compounds are the products of aqueous alteration of the rock phase under hydrothermal conditions and have been predicted theoretically for these objects per analogy with carbonaceous chondrite parent bodies. Evidence for salt enrichment comes from magnetometer measurements (Galilean satellites), direct detection in the case of Enceladus, and inversion of the gravity data obtained at Titan. While there is direct detection for the presence of chlorides in icy grains ejected from Enceladus, the chemistry of the oceans detected so far, or even their densities, remain mostly unconstrained. However the increased ocean density impacts the interpretation of the tidal Love number k2and this may introduce confusion in the inference of the icy shell thickness from that parameter. We will present estimates of k2for a range of assumptions on Europa's hydrospheric structure that build on geophysical observations obtained by the Galileo mission combined with new models of Europa's interior. These models keep track of the compositions of the hydrated core and oceanic composition in a self-consistent manner. We will also estimate the electrical conductivity corresponding to the modeled oceanic composition. Finally we will explore how combining electromagnetic, topographic, and gravity data can decouple the signatures of the shell thickness and ocean composition on these geophysical observations. Acknowledgement: This work is being carried out at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, under contract to NASA. Government sponsorship acknowledged.

A perspective on sustained marine observations for climate modelling and prediction.

Science.gov (United States)

Dunstone, Nick J

2014-09-28

Here, I examine some of the many varied ways in which sustained global ocean observations are used in numerical modelling activities. In particular, I focus on the use of ocean observations to initialize predictions in ocean and climate models. Examples are also shown of how models can be used to assess the impact of both current ocean observations and to simulate that of potential new ocean observing platforms. The ocean has never been better observed than it is today and similarly ocean models have never been as capable at representing the real ocean as they are now. However, there remain important unanswered questions that can likely only be addressed via future improvements in ocean observations. In particular, ocean observing systems need to respond to the needs of the burgeoning field of near-term climate predictions. Although new ocean observing platforms promise exciting new discoveries, there is a delicate balance to be made between their funding and that of the current ocean observing system. Here, I identify the need to secure long-term funding for ocean observing platforms as they mature, from a mainly research exercise to an operational system for sustained observation over climate change time scales. At the same time, considerable progress continues to be made via ship-based observing campaigns and I highlight some that are dedicated to addressing uncertainties in key ocean model parametrizations. The use of ocean observations to understand the prominent long time scale changes observed in the North Atlantic is another focus of this paper. The exciting first decade of monitoring of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation by the RAPID-MOCHA array is highlighted. The use of ocean and climate models as tools to further probe the drivers of variability seen in such time series is another exciting development. I also discuss the need for a concerted combined effort from climate models and ocean observations in order to understand the current slow

OceanSITES format and Ocean Observatory Output harmonisation: past, present and future

Science.gov (United States)

Pagnani, Maureen; Galbraith, Nan; Diggs, Stephen; Lankhorst, Matthias; Hidas, Marton; Lampitt, Richard

2015-04-01

The Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) initiative was launched in 1991, and was the first step in creating a global view of ocean observations. In 1999 oceanographers at the OceanObs conference envisioned a 'global system of eulerian observatories' which evolved into the OceanSITES project. OceanSITES has been generously supported by individual oceanographic institutes and agencies across the globe, as well as by the WMO-IOC Joint Technical Commission for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology (under JCOMMOPS). The project is directed by the needs of research scientists, but has a strong data management component, with an international team developing content standards, metadata specifications, and NetCDF templates for many types of in situ oceanographic data. The OceanSITES NetCDF format specification is intended as a robust data exchange and archive format specifically for time-series observatory data from the deep ocean. First released in February 2006, it has evolved to build on and extend internationally recognised standards such as the Climate and Forecast (CF) standard, BODC vocabularies, ISO formats and vocabularies, and in version 1.3, released in 2014, ACDD (Attribute Convention for Dataset Discovery). The success of the OceanSITES format has inspired other observational groups, such as autonomous vehicles and ships of opportunity, to also use the format and today it is fulfilling the original concept of providing a coherent set of data from eurerian observatories. Data in the OceanSITES format is served by 2 Global Data Assembly Centres (GDACs), one at Coriolis, in France, at ftp://ftp.ifremer.fr/ifremer/oceansites/ and one at the US NDBC, at ftp://data.ndbc.noaa.gov/data/oceansites/. These two centres serve over 26,800 OceanSITES format data files from 93 moorings. The use of standardised and controlled features enables the files held at the OceanSITES GDACs to be electronically discoverable and ensures the widest access to the data. The Ocean

Middle Range Sea Ice Prediction System of Voyage Environmental Information System in Arctic Sea Route

Science.gov (United States)

Lim, H. S.

2017-12-01

Due to global warming, the sea ice in the Arctic Ocean is melting dramatically in summer, which is providing a new opportunity to exploit the Northern Sea Route (NSR) connecting Asia and Europe ship route. Recent increases in logistics transportation through NSR and resource development reveal the possible threats of marine pollution and marine transportation accidents without real-time navigation system. To develop a safe Voyage Environmental Information System (VEIS) for vessels operating, the Korea Institute of Ocean Science and Technology (KIOST) which is supported by the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries, Korea has initiated the development of short-term and middle range prediction system for the sea ice concentration (SIC) and sea ice thickness (SIT) in NSR since 2014. The sea ice prediction system of VEIS consists of AMSR2 satellite composite images (a day), short-term (a week) prediction system, and middle range (a month) prediction system using a statistical method with re-analysis data (TOPAZ) and short-term predicted model data. In this study, the middle range prediction system for the SIC and SIT in NSR is calibrated with another middle range predicted atmospheric and oceanic data (NOAA CFSv2). The system predicts one month SIC and SIT on a daily basis, as validated with dynamic composite SIC data extracted from AMSR2 L2 satellite images.

Ocean tides from Seasat-A

Science.gov (United States)

Hendershott, M. C.; Munk, W. H.; Zetler, B. D.

1974-01-01

Two procedures for the evaluation of global tides from SEASAT-A altimetry data are elaborated: an empirical method leading to the response functions for a grid of about 500 points from which the tide can be predicted for any point in the oceans, and a dynamic method which consists of iteratively modifying the parameters in a numerical solution to Laplace tide equations. It is assumed that the shape of the received altimeter signal can be interpreted for sea state and that orbit calculations are available so that absolute sea levels can be obtained.

Ecological selectivity of the emerging mass extinction in the oceans.

Science.gov (United States)

Payne, Jonathan L; Bush, Andrew M; Heim, Noel A; Knope, Matthew L; McCauley, Douglas J

2016-09-16

To better predict the ecological and evolutionary effects of the emerging biodiversity crisis in the modern oceans, we compared the association between extinction threat and ecological traits in modern marine animals to associations observed during past extinction events using a database of 2497 marine vertebrate and mollusc genera. We find that extinction threat in the modern oceans is strongly associated with large body size, whereas past extinction events were either nonselective or preferentially removed smaller-bodied taxa. Pelagic animals were victimized more than benthic animals during previous mass extinctions but are not preferentially threatened in the modern ocean. The differential importance of large-bodied animals to ecosystem function portends greater future ecological disruption than that caused by similar levels of taxonomic loss in past mass extinction events. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Development of an Indian Ocean moored buoy array for climate studies

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

McPhaden, M.J.; Kuroda, Y.; Murty, V.S.N.

of measurements to societal benefit. Chief among the principles is the need to distributed data openly in a timely manner. There is a preference for communication of data in real time to make it available at climate analysis and prediction centers.... This is essential to demonstrate the value of IndOOS and capture the potential societal benefits. 1. Introduction The Indian Ocean is unique among the three tropical ocean basins in that it is blocked at 25°N by the Asian land mass. Seasonal heating over...

Ocean tidal signals in observatory and satellite magnetic measurements

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Maus, S.; Kuvshinov, A.

2004-01-01

, and P1 periods turn out to be dominated by unrelated external fields. In contrast, observed lunar M2 and N2 tidal signals are in fair agreement with predictions from motional induction. The lunar diurnal O1 signal, visible at some observatories, could be caused by ocean flow but disagrees in amplitude...

Decadel climate prediction: challenges and opportunities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hurrell, J W

2008-01-01

The scientific understanding of climate change is now sufficiently clear to show that climate change from global warming is already upon us, and the rate of change as projected exceeds anything seen in nature in the past 10,000 years. Uncertainties remain, however, especially regarding how climate will change at regional and local scales where the signal of natural variability is large. Addressing many of these uncertainties will require a movement toward high resolution climate system predictions, with a blurring of the distinction between shorter-term predictions and longer-term climate projections. The key is the realization that climate system predictions, regardless of timescale, will require initialization of coupled general circulation models with best estimates of the current observed state of the atmosphere, oceans, cryosphere, and land surface. Formidable challenges exist: for instance, what is the best method of initialization given imperfect observations and systematic errors in models? What effect does initialization have on climate predictions? What predictions should be attempted, and how would they be verified? Despite such challenges, the unrealized predictability that resides in slowly evolving phenomena, such as ocean current systems, is of paramount importance for society to plan and adapt for the next few decades. Moreover, initialized climate predictions will require stronger collaboration with shared knowledge, infrastructure and technical capabilities among those in the weather and climate prediction communities. The potential benefits include improved understanding and predictions on all time scales

The Ocean Literacy Campaign

Science.gov (United States)

Schoedinger, S. E.; Strang, C.

2008-12-01

"Ocean Literacy is an understanding of the ocean's influence on you and your influence on the ocean." This simple statement captures the spirit of a conceptual framework supporting ocean literacy (COSEE et al., 2005). The framework comprises 7 essential principles and 44 fundamental concepts an ocean literate person would know (COSEE et al., 2005). The framework is the result of an extensive grassroots effort to reach consensus on (1) a definition for ocean literacy and (2) an articulation of the most important concepts to be understood by ocean-literate citizen (Cava et al., 2005). In the process of reaching consensus on these "big ideas" about the ocean, what began as a series of workshops has emerged as a campaign "owned" by an ever-expanding community of individuals, organizations and networks involved in developing and promoting the framework. The Ocean Literacy Framework has provided a common language for scientists and educators working together and serves as key guidance for the ocean science education efforts. This presentation will focus on the impact this Ocean Literacy Campaign has had to date as well as efforts underway to provide additional tools to enable educators and educational policy makers to further integrate teaching and learning about the ocean and our coasts into formal K-12 education and informal education. COSEE, National Geographic Society, NOAA, College of Exploration (2005). Ocean Literacy: The Essential Principles of Ocean Sciences Grades K-12, a jointly published brochure, URL: http://www.coexploration.org/oceanliteracy/documents/OceanLitChart.pdf Cava, F., S. Schoedinger , C. Strang, and P. Tuddenham (2005). Science Content and Standards for Ocean Literacy: A Report on Ocean Literacy, URL: http://www.coexploration.org/oceanliteracy/documents/OLit2004-05_Final_Report.pdf.

Computational Ocean Acoustics

CERN Document Server

Jensen, Finn B; Porter, Michael B; Schmidt, Henrik

2011-01-01

Since the mid-1970s, the computer has played an increasingly pivotal role in the field of ocean acoustics. Faster and less expensive than actual ocean experiments, and capable of accommodating the full complexity of the acoustic problem, numerical models are now standard research tools in ocean laboratories. The progress made in computational ocean acoustics over the last thirty years is summed up in this authoritative and innovatively illustrated new text. Written by some of the field's pioneers, all Fellows of the Acoustical Society of America, Computational Ocean Acoustics presents the latest numerical techniques for solving the wave equation in heterogeneous fluid–solid media. The authors discuss various computational schemes in detail, emphasizing the importance of theoretical foundations that lead directly to numerical implementations for real ocean environments. To further clarify the presentation, the fundamental propagation features of the techniques are illustrated in color. Computational Ocean A...

How well does wind speed predict air-sea gas transfer in the sea ice zone? A synthesis of radon deficit profiles in the upper water column of the Arctic Ocean

Science.gov (United States)

Loose, B.; Kelly, R. P.; Bigdeli, A.; Williams, W.; Krishfield, R.; Rutgers van der Loeff, M.; Moran, S. B.

2017-05-01

We present 34 profiles of radon-deficit from the ice-ocean boundary layer of the Beaufort Sea. Including these 34, there are presently 58 published radon-deficit estimates of air-sea gas transfer velocity (k) in the Arctic Ocean; 52 of these estimates were derived from water covered by 10% sea ice or more. The average value of k collected since 2011 is 4.0 ± 1.2 m d-1. This exceeds the quadratic wind speed prediction of weighted kws = 2.85 m d-1 with mean-weighted wind speed of 6.4 m s-1. We show how ice cover changes the mixed-layer radon budget, and yields an "effective gas transfer velocity." We use these 58 estimates to statistically evaluate the suitability of a wind speed parameterization for k, when the ocean surface is ice covered. Whereas the six profiles taken from the open ocean indicate a statistically good fit to wind speed parameterizations, the same parameterizations could not reproduce k from the sea ice zone. We conclude that techniques for estimating k in the open ocean cannot be similarly applied to determine k in the presence of sea ice. The magnitude of k through gaps in the ice may reach high values as ice cover increases, possibly as a result of focused turbulence dissipation at openings in the free surface. These 58 profiles are presently the most complete set of estimates of k across seasons and variable ice cover; as dissolved tracer budgets they reflect air-sea gas exchange with no impact from air-ice gas exchange.

Calibration of Ocean Forcing with satellite Flux Estimates (COFFEE)

Science.gov (United States)

Barron, Charlie; Jan, Dastugue; Jackie, May; Rowley, Clark; Smith, Scott; Spence, Peter; Gremes-Cordero, Silvia

2016-04-01

Predicting the evolution of ocean temperature in regional ocean models depends on estimates of surface heat fluxes and upper-ocean processes over the forecast period. Within the COFFEE project (Calibration of Ocean Forcing with satellite Flux Estimates, real-time satellite observations are used to estimate shortwave, longwave, sensible, and latent air-sea heat flux corrections to a background estimate from the prior day's regional or global model forecast. These satellite-corrected fluxes are used to prepare a corrected ocean hindcast and to estimate flux error covariances to project the heat flux corrections for a 3-5 day forecast. In this way, satellite remote sensing is applied to not only inform the initial ocean state but also to mitigate errors in surface heat flux and model representations affecting the distribution of heat in the upper ocean. While traditional assimilation of sea surface temperature (SST) observations re-centers ocean models at the start of each forecast cycle, COFFEE endeavors to appropriately partition and reduce among various surface heat flux and ocean dynamics sources. A suite of experiments in the southern California Current demonstrates a range of COFFEE capabilities, showing the impact on forecast error relative to a baseline three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) assimilation using operational global or regional atmospheric forcing. Experiment cases combine different levels of flux calibration with assimilation alternatives. The cases use the original fluxes, apply full satellite corrections during the forecast period, or extend hindcast corrections into the forecast period. Assimilation is either baseline 3DVAR or standard strong-constraint 4DVAR, with work proceeding to add a 4DVAR expanded to include a weak constraint treatment of the surface flux errors. Covariance of flux errors is estimated from the recent time series of forecast and calibrated flux terms. While the California Current examples are shown, the approach is

Rapid nitrous oxide cycling in the suboxic ocean

Science.gov (United States)

Babbin, Andrew R.; Bianchi, Daniele; Jayakumar, Amal; Ward, Bess B.

2015-06-01

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is a powerful greenhouse gas and a major cause of stratospheric ozone depletion, yet its sources and sinks remain poorly quantified in the oceans. We used isotope tracers to directly measure N2O reduction rates in the eastern tropical North Pacific. Because of incomplete denitrification, N2O cycling rates are an order of magnitude higher than predicted by current models in suboxic regions, and the spatial distribution suggests strong dependence on both organic carbon and dissolved oxygen concentrations. Furthermore, N2O turnover is 20 times higher than the net atmospheric efflux. The rapid rate of this cycling coupled to an expected expansion of suboxic ocean waters implies future increases in N2O emissions.

Garnet Signatures in Geophysical and Geochemical Observations: Insights into the Thermo-Petrological Structure of Oceanic Upper Mantle

Science.gov (United States)

Grose, C. J.; Afonso, J. C.

2013-12-01

We have developed new physically comprehensive thermal plate models of the oceanic lithosphere which incorporate temperature- and pressure-dependent heat transport properties and thermal expansivity, melting beneath ridges, hydrothermal circulation near ridge axes, and insulating oceanic crust. These models provide good fits to global databases of seafloor topography and heat flow, and seismic evidence of thermal structure near ridge axes. We couple these thermal plate models with thermodynamic models to predict the petrology of oceanic lithosphere. Geoid height predictions from our models suggest that there is a strong anomaly in geoid slope (over age) above ~25 Ma lithosphere due to the topography of garnet-field mantle. A similar anomaly is also present in geoid data over fracture zones. In addition, we show that a new assessment of a large database of ocean island basalt Sm/Yb systematics indicates that there is an unmistakable step-like increase in Sm/Yb values around 15-20 Ma, indicating the presence of garnet. To explain this feature, we have attempted to couple our thermo-petrological models of oceanic upper mantle with an open system, non-modal, dynamic melting model with diffusion kinetics to investigate trace element partitioning in an ascending mantle column.

Blue ocean strategy.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, W Chan; Mauborgne, Renée

2004-10-01

Despite a long-term decline in the circus industry, Cirque du Soleil profitably increased revenue 22-fold over the last ten years by reinventing the circus. Rather than competing within the confines of the existing industry or trying to steal customers from rivals, Cirque developed uncontested market space that made the competition irrelevant. Cirque created what the authors call a blue ocean, a previously unknown market space. In blue oceans, demand is created rather than fought over. There is ample opportunity for growth that is both profitable and rapid. In red oceans--that is, in all the industries already existing--companies compete by grabbing for a greater share of limited demand. As the market space gets more crowded, prospects for profits and growth decline. Products turn into commodities, and increasing competition turns the water bloody. There are two ways to create blue oceans. One is to launch completely new industries, as eBay did with online auctions. But it's much more common for a blue ocean to be created from within a red ocean when a company expands the boundaries of an existing industry. In studying more than 150 blue ocean creations in over 30 industries, the authors observed that the traditional units of strategic analysis--company and industry--are of limited use in explaining how and why blue oceans are created. The most appropriate unit of analysis is the strategic move, the set of managerial actions and decisions involved in making a major market-creating business offering. Creating blue oceans builds brands. So powerful is blue ocean strategy, in fact, that a blue ocean strategic move can create brand equity that lasts for decades.

Verification of the Naval Oceanic Vertical Aerosol Model During Fire

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Davidson, K.L.; Leeuw, G. de; Gathman, S.G.; Jensen, D.R.

1990-01-01

The Naval Oceanic Vertical Aerosol Model (NOVAM) has been formulated to estimate the vertical structure of the optical and infrared extinction coefficients in the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL), for waverengths between 0,2 and 40 um. NOVAM was designed to predict, utilizing a set of

WSA-Enlil Solar Wind Prediction

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — WSA-Enlil is a large-scale, physics-based prediction model of the heliosphere, used by the Space Weather Forecast Office to provide 1-4 day advance warning of solar...

Ocean Warming and CO2-Induced Acidification Impact the Lipid Content of a Marine Predatory Gastropod

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Roselyn Valles-Regino

2015-09-01

Full Text Available Ocean warming and acidification are current global environmental challenges impacting aquatic organisms. A shift in conditions outside the optimal environmental range for marine species is likely to generate stress that could impact metabolic activity, with consequences for the biosynthesis of marine lipids. The aim of this study was to investigate differences in the lipid content of Dicathais orbita exposed to current and predicted future climate change scenarios. The whelks were exposed to a combination of temperature and CO2-induced acidification treatments in controlled flowthrough seawater mesocosms for 35 days. Under current conditions, D. orbita foot tissue has an average of 6 mg lipid/g tissue, but at predicted future ocean temperatures, the total lipid content dropped significantly, to almost half. The fatty acid composition is dominated by polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA 52% with an n-3:6 fatty acid ratio of almost 2, which remains unchanged under future ocean conditions. However, we detected an interactive effect of temperature and pCO2 on the % PUFAs and n-3 and n-6 fatty acids were significantly reduced by elevated water temperature, while both the saturated and monounsaturated fatty acids were significantly reduced under increased pCO2 acidifying conditions. The present study indicates the potential for relatively small predicted changes in ocean conditions to reduce lipid reserves and alter the fatty acid composition of a predatory marine mollusc. This has potential implications for the growth and survivorship of whelks under future conditions, but only minimal implications for human consumption of D. orbita as nutritional seafood are predicted.

Organophosphorus esters in the oceans and possible relation with ocean gyres

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cheng, Wenhan; Xie, Zhouqing; Blais, Jules M.; Zhang, Pengfei; Li, Ming; Yang, Chengyun; Huang, Wen; Ding, Rui; Sun, Liguang

2013-01-01

Four organophosphorus esters (OPEs) were detected in aerosol samples collected in the West Pacific, the Indian Ocean and the Southern Ocean from 2009 to 2010, suggesting their circumpolar and global distribution. In general, the highest concentrations were detected near populated regions in China, Australia and New Zealand. OPE concentrations in the Southern Ocean were about two orders of magnitude lower than those near major continents. Additionally, relatively high OPE concentrations were detected at the Antarctic Peninsula, where several scientific survey stations are located. The four OPEs investigated here are significantly correlated with each other, suggesting they may derive from the same source. In the circumpolar transect, OPE concentrations were associated with ocean gyres in the open ocean. Their concentrations were positively related with average vorticity in the sampling area suggesting that a major source of OPEs may be found in ocean gyres where plastic debris is known to accumulate. -- Highlights: •We provide OPE concentrations in aerosols in a circumpolar expedition. •We find strong anthropogenic source of OPE pollution. •We suggest potential relationship between ocean gyres and OPE pollution. -- Our work provides a circumpolar investigation on OPEs in the Southern Ocean and we suggest a possibility that ocean currents and gyres may act as important roles in global transport of OPEs

Inversion of Solid Earth's Varying Shape 2: Using Self-Consistency to Infer Static Ocean Topography

Science.gov (United States)

Blewitt, G.; Clarke, P. J.

2002-12-01

We have developed a spectral approach to invert for the redistribution of mass on the Earth's surface given precise global geodetic measurements of the solid Earth's geometrical shape. We used the elastic load Love number formalism to characterize the redistributed mass as a spherical harmonic expansion, truncated at some degree and order n. [Clarke and Blewitt, this meeting]. Here we incorporate the additional physical constraint that the sea surface in hydrostatic equilibrium corresponds to an equipotential surface, to infer the non-steric component of static ocean topography. Our model rigorously accounts for self-gravitation of the ocean, continental surface mass, and the deformed solid Earth, such that the sea surface adopts a new equipotential surface consistent with ocean-land mass exchange, deformation of the geoid, deformation of the sea floor, and the geographical configuration of the oceans and continents. We develop a self-consistent spectral inversion method to solve for the distribution of continental surface mass that would generate geographic variations in relative mean sea level such that the total (ocean plus continental) mass distribution agrees with the original geodetic estimates to degree and order n. We apply this theory to study the contribution of seasonal inter-hemispheric (degree-1) mass transfer to seasonal variation in static ocean topography, using a published empirical seasonal model for degree-1 surface loading derived using GPS coordinate time series from the global IGS network [Blewitt et al., Science 294, 2,342-2,345, 2001]. The resulting predictions of seasonal variations of relative sea level strongly depend on location, with peak variations ranging from 3 mm to 19 mm. The largest peak variations are predicted in mid-August around Antarctica and the southern hemisphere in general; the lowest variations are predicted in the northern hemisphere. Corresponding maximum continental loading occurs in Canada and Siberia at the water

Atmospheric and oceanic excitation of decadal-scale Earth orientation variations

Science.gov (United States)

Gross, Richard S.; Fukumori, Ichiro; Menemenlis, Dimitris

2005-09-01

The contribution of atmospheric wind and surface pressure and oceanic current and bottom pressure variations during 1949-2002 to exciting changes in the Earth's orientation on decadal timescales is investigated using an atmospheric angular momentum series computed from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis project and an oceanic angular momentum series computed from a near-global ocean model that was forced by surface fluxes from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis project. Not surprisingly, since decadal-scale variations in the length of day are caused mainly by interactions between the mantle and core, the effect of the atmosphere and oceans is found to be only about 14% of that observed. More surprisingly, it is found that the effect of atmospheric and oceanic processes on decadal-scale changes in polar motion is also only about 20% (x component) and 38% (y component) of that observed. Therefore redistribution of mass within the atmosphere and oceans does not appear to be the main cause of the Markowitz wobble. It is also found that on timescales between 10 days and 4 years the atmospheric and oceanic angular momentum series used here have very little skill in explaining Earth orientation variations before the mid to late 1970s. This is attributed to errors in both the Earth orientation observations prior to 1976 when measurements from the accurate space-geodetic techniques became available and to errors in the modeled atmospheric fields prior to 1979 when the satellite era of global weather observing systems began.

Automated Sargassum Detection for Landsat Imagery

Science.gov (United States)

McCarthy, S.; Gallegos, S. C.; Armstrong, D.

2016-02-01

We implemented a system to automatically detect Sargassum, a floating seaweed, in 30-meter LANDSAT-8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) imagery. Our algorithm for Sargassum detection is an extended form of Hu's approach to derive a floating algae index (FAI) [1]. Hu's algorithm was developed for Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data, but we extended it for use with the OLI bands centered at 655, 865, and 1609 nm, which are comparable to the MODIS bands located at 645, 859, and 1640 nm. We also developed a high resolution true color product to mask cloud pixels in the OLI scene by applying a threshold to top of the atmosphere (TOA) radiances in the red (655 nm), green (561 nm), and blue (443 nm) wavelengths, as well as a method for removing false positive identifications of Sargassum in the imagery. Hu's algorithm derives a FAI for each Sargassum identified pixel. Our algorithm is currently set to only flag the presence of Sargassum in an OLI pixel by classifying any pixel with a FAI > 0.0 as Sargassum. Additionally, our system geo-locates the flagged Sargassum pixels identified in the OLI imagery into the U.S. Navy Global HYCOM model grid. One element of the model grid covers an area 0.125 degrees of latitude by 0.125 degrees of longitude. To resolve the differences in spatial coverage between Landsat and HYCOM, a scheme was developed to calculate the percentage of pixels flagged within the grid element and if above a threshold, it will be flagged as Sargassum. This work is a part of a larger system, sponsored by NASA/Applied Science and Technology Project at J.C. Stennis Space Center, to forecast when and where Sargassum will land on shore. The focus area of this work is currently the Texas coast. Plans call for extending our efforts into the Caribbean. References: [1] Hu, Chuanmin. A novel ocean color index to detect floating algae in the global oceans. Remote Sensing of Environment 113 (2009) 2118-2129.

Application of a Subfilter-Scale Flux Model over the Ocean Using OHATS Field Data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kelly, Mark C.; Wyngaard, John C.; Sullivan, Peter P.

2009-01-01

the scalar flux model appeared to perform adequately over the ocean. Analysis of data from the Ocean Horizontal Array Turbulence Study (OHATS) reveals a need to account for the moving ocean–air interface in the subfilter stress model. The authors develop simple parameterizations for the effect of surface......-induced pressure fluctuations on the subfilter stress, leading to good predictions of subfilter momentum flux both over land and in OHATS....

A Blueprint for the Ecological Monitoring of Australia's Oceans.

Science.gov (United States)

Bax, N. J.; Hayes, K. R.; Dambacher, J. M.; Hosack, G. R.; Dunstan, P. K.; Fulton, E.; Thompson, P. A.; Hartog, J. R.; Hobday, A. J.; Bradford, R.; Foster, S.; Hedge, P.; Smith, D.; Marshall, C. M.

2016-02-01

Monitoring Australia's marine area is fundamental to understanding and documenting how the ocean is changing in response to human pressures. Fifty-four key ecological features (KEFs) were identified as areas of particular value to the Australian Government over the last 8 years. These were divided into six reporting groups: areas of enhanced pelagic productivity, canyons, deep seabeds, seamounts, shelf reefs and seabeds. Ecosystem models were built for 33 KEF systems that have the strongest datasets, based on a theoretical understanding of how they function. Human pressures were identified by regional specialists and combined with the KEF models to create a set of medium-term pressure scenarios for each KEF. Between four and 25 pressure scenarios were identified for each KEF. Examples of human pressures include the strengthening of the East Australian Current and shifts in ocean upwelling due to climate change, major fluctuations in pelagic fish and fur seal populations, and fishing, shipping and oil and gas activities. KEF models encompass parts of the ecosystem that have potential to be monitored as long-term indicators that increase, decrease, or remain unchanged under each pressure scenario. Suitable indicators are those that respond in predictable ways across all pressure scenarios for a KEF. Results from pressure scenarios developed to test indicators for Australia's nine enhanced pelagic productivity KEFs will be presented. Satellite observations were analysed to tease out the long-term trend in phytoplankton and ocean upwelling. The comparison of predicted and observed trends in indicators leads to an improved understanding of KEF systems and the utility of the indicators. A change in indicator is a signal that something was happening to a valued system. The prediction-observation process would explain why. This process is repeatable and can be updated as new information comes available.

Ocean-atmosphere interactions during cyclone Nargis

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Mc; Foltz, G.R.; Lee, T.; Murty, V.S.N.; Ravichandran, M.; Vecchi, G.A.; Vialard, J.; Wiggert, J.D.; Yu, L.

=UTF-8 Author version: EOS: Trans. Am. Geophys. Union: 90(7); 2009; 53-60; doi:10.1029/2009EO070001 Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions During Cyclone Nargis M. J. McPhaden (1) , G. R. Foltz (2) , T. Lee (3) , V. S. N. Murty (4) , M... Moored Array for African-Asian-Australian Monsoon Analysis and Prediction; McPhaden et al, 2008) designed to complement a constellation of earth observing satellites for key environmental parameters such as winds, sea surface temperature (SST), and sea...

Momentum Exchange Near Ice Keels in the Under Ice Ocean Boundary Layer

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Bleidorn, John C

2008-01-01

.... Understanding ice-ocean momentum exchange is important for accurate predictive ice modeling. Due to climate change, increased naval presence in the Arctic region is anticipated and ice models will become necessary for tactical and safety reasons...

DIOPS: A PC-Based Wave, Tide and Surf Prediction System

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Allard, Richard; Dykes, James; Kaihatu, James; Wakeham, Dean

2005-01-01

The Distributed Integrated Ocean Prediciton System (DIOPS) is a PC-based wave tide and surf prediction system designed to provide DoD accurate and timely surf predictions for essentially any world-wide location...

Economic Vulnerability Assessment of U.S. Fishery Revenues to Ocean Acidification

Science.gov (United States)

Cooley, S. R.; Doney, S. C.

2008-12-01

Ocean acidification, a predictable consequence of rising anthropogenic CO2 emissions, is poised to change marine ecosystems profoundly by decreasing average ocean pH and the carbonate mineral saturation state worldwide. These conditions slow or reverse marine plant and animal calcium carbonate shell growth, thereby harming economically valuable species. In 2006, shellfish and crustaceans provided 50% of the 4 billion U.S. domestic commercial harvest value; value added to commercial fishery products contributed 35 billion to the gross national product that year. Laboratory studies have shown that ocean acidification decreases shellfish calcification; ocean acidification--driven declines in commercial shellfish and crustacean harvests between now and 2060 could decrease nationwide time-integrated primary commercial revenues by 860 million to 14 billion (net present value, 2006 dollars), depending on CO2 emissions, discount rates, biological responses, and fishery structure. This estimate excludes losses from coral reef damage and possible fishery collapses if ocean acidification pushes ecosystems past ecological tipping points. Expanding job losses and indirect economic costs will follow harvest decreases as ocean acidification broadly damages marine habitats and alters marine resource availability. Losses will harm many regions already possessing little economic resilience. The only true solution to ocean acidification is reducing atmospheric CO2 emissions, but implementing regional adaptive responses now from an ecosystem-wide, fisheries perspective will help better preserve sustainable ecosystem function and economic yields. Comprehensive management strategies must include monitoring critical fisheries, explicitly accounting for ocean acidification in management models, reducing fishing pressure and environmental stresses, and supporting regional economies most sensitive to acidification's impacts.

Atlantic Ocean influence on a shift in European climate in the 1990s

OpenAIRE

Sutton, Rowan; Dong, Buwen

2012-01-01

European climate exhibits variability on a wide range of timescales. Understanding the nature and drivers of this variability is an essential step in developing robust climate predictions and risk assessments. The Atlantic Ocean has been suggested as an important driver of variability in European climate on decadal timescales1, but the importance of this influence in recent decades has been unclear, partly because of difficulties in separating the influence of the Atlantic Ocean from other co...

Evaluation of OSCAR ocean surface current product in the tropical ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Next, the evaluation has been carried out by comparing the OSCAR currents with currents measured by moored buoys ... measurements, to derive the surface current prod- uct, known ... ogy of surface currents based on drifter data. The ... and prediction (RAMA). ..... of satellite derived forcings on numerical ocean model sim-.

Bayesian Inference of High-Dimensional Dynamical Ocean Models

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, J.; Lermusiaux, P. F. J.; Lolla, S. V. T.; Gupta, A.; Haley, P. J., Jr.

2015-12-01

This presentation addresses a holistic set of challenges in high-dimension ocean Bayesian nonlinear estimation: i) predict the probability distribution functions (pdfs) of large nonlinear dynamical systems using stochastic partial differential equations (PDEs); ii) assimilate data using Bayes' law with these pdfs; iii) predict the future data that optimally reduce uncertainties; and (iv) rank the known and learn the new model formulations themselves. Overall, we allow the joint inference of the state, equations, geometry, boundary conditions and initial conditions of dynamical models. Examples are provided for time-dependent fluid and ocean flows, including cavity, double-gyre and Strait flows with jets and eddies. The Bayesian model inference, based on limited observations, is illustrated first by the estimation of obstacle shapes and positions in fluid flows. Next, the Bayesian inference of biogeochemical reaction equations and of their states and parameters is presented, illustrating how PDE-based machine learning can rigorously guide the selection and discovery of complex ecosystem models. Finally, the inference of multiscale bottom gravity current dynamics is illustrated, motivated in part by classic overflows and dense water formation sites and their relevance to climate monitoring and dynamics. This is joint work with our MSEAS group at MIT.

Understanding the predictability of seasonal precipitation over northeast Brazil

Science.gov (United States)

Misra, Vasubandhu

2006-05-01

Using multiple long-term simulations of the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) forced with observed sea surface temperature (SST), it is shown that the model has high skill in simulating the February-March-April (FMA) rainy season over northeast Brazil (Nordeste). Separate sensitivity experiments conducted with the same model that entails suppression of all variability except for the climatological annual cycle in SST over the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans reveal that this skill over Nordeste is sensitive to SST anomalies in the tropical Atlantic Ocean. However, the spatial pattern of SST anomalies in the tropical Atlantic Ocean that correlate with FMA Nordeste rainfall are in fact a manifestation of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean. This study also analyzes the failure of the COLA AGCM in capturing the correct FMA precipitation anomalies over Nordeste in several years of the simulation. It is found that this failure occurs when the SST anomalies over the northern tropical Atlantic Ocean are large and not significantly correlated with contemporaneous SST anomalies over the eastern Pacific Ocean. In two of the relatively large ENSO years when the model failed to capture the correct signal of the interannual variability of precipitation over Nordeste, it was found that the meridional gradient of SST anomalies over the tropical Atlantic Ocean was inconsistent with the canonical development of ENSO. The analysis of the probabilistic skill of the model revealed that it has more skill in predicting flood years than drought. Furthermore, the model has no skill in predicting normal seasons. These model features are consistent with the model systematic errors.

Simulated 21st century's increase in oceanic suboxia by CO2-enhanced biotic carbon export

Science.gov (United States)

Oschlies, Andreas; Schulz, Kai G.; Riebesell, Ulf; Schmittner, Andreas

2008-12-01

The primary impacts of anthropogenic CO2 emissions on marine biogeochemical cycles predicted so far include ocean acidification, global warming induced shifts in biogeographical provinces, and a possible negative feedback on atmospheric CO2 levels by CO2-fertilized biological production. Here we report a new potentially significant impact on the oxygen-minimum zones of the tropical oceans. Using a model of global climate, ocean circulation, and biogeochemical cycling, we extrapolate mesocosm-derived experimental findings of a pCO2-sensitive increase in biotic carbon-to-nitrogen drawdown to the global ocean. For a simulation run from the onset of the industrial revolution until A.D. 2100 under a "business-as-usual" scenario for anthropogenic CO2 emissions, our model predicts a negative feedback on atmospheric CO2 levels, which amounts to 34 Gt C by the end of this century. While this represents a small alteration of the anthropogenic perturbation of the carbon cycle, the model results reveal a dramatic 50% increase in the suboxic water volume by the end of this century in response to the respiration of excess organic carbon formed at higher CO2 levels. This is a significant expansion of the marine "dead zones" with severe implications not only for all higher life forms but also for oxygen-sensitive nutrient recycling and, hence, for oceanic nutrient inventories.

Longitudinal biases in the Seychelles Dome simulated by 35 ocean-atmosphere coupled general circulation models

Science.gov (United States)

Nagura, Motoki; Sasaki, Wataru; Tozuka, Tomoki; Luo, Jing-Jia; Behera, Swadhin K.; Yamagata, Toshio

2013-02-01

Seychelles Dome refers to the shallow climatological thermocline in the southwestern Indian Ocean, where ocean wave dynamics efficiently affect sea surface temperature, allowing sea surface temperature anomalies to be predicted up to 1-2 years in advance. Accurate reproduction of the dome by ocean-atmosphere coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) is essential for successful seasonal predictions in the Indian Ocean. This study examines the Seychelles Dome as simulated by 35 CGCMs, including models used in phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Among the 35 CGCMs, 14 models erroneously produce an upwelling dome in the eastern half of the basin whereas the observed Seychelles Dome is located in the southwestern tropical Indian Ocean. The annual mean Ekman pumping velocity in these models is found to be almost zero in the southern off-equatorial region. This result is inconsistent with observations, in which Ekman upwelling acts as the main cause of the Seychelles Dome. In the models reproducing an eastward-displaced dome, easterly biases are prominent along the equator in boreal summer and fall, which result in shallow thermocline biases along the Java and Sumatra coasts via Kelvin wave dynamics and a spurious upwelling dome in the region. Compared to the CMIP3 models, the CMIP5 models are even worse in simulating the dome longitudes.

Flagging optically shallow pixels for improved analysis of ocean color data

Science.gov (United States)

McKinna, L. I. W.; Werdell, J.; Knowles, D., Jr.

2016-02-01

Ocean color remote-sensing is routinely used to derive marine geophysical parameters from sensor-observed water-leaving radiances. However, in clear geometrically shallow regions, traditional ocean color algorithms can be confounded by light reflected from the seafloor. Such regions are typically referred to as "optically shallow". When performing spatiotemporal analyses of ocean color datasets, optically shallow features such as coral reefs can lead to unexpected regional biases. Benthic contamination of the water-leaving radiance is dependent on bathymetry, water clarity and seafloor albedo. Thus, a prototype ocean color processing flag called OPTSHAL has been developed that takes all three variables into account. In the method described here, the optical depth of the water column at 547 nm, ζ(547), is predicted from known bathymetry and estimated inherent optical properties. If ζ(547) is less then the pre-defined threshold, a pixel is flagged as optically shallow. Radiative transfer modeling was used to identify the appropriate threshold value of ζ(547) for a generic benthic sand albedo. OPTSHAL has been evaluated within the NASA Ocean Biology Processing Group's L2GEN code. Using MODIS Aqua imagery, OPTSHAL was tested in two regions: (i) the Pedro Bank south-west of Jamaica, and (ii) the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. It is anticipated that OPTSHAL will benefit end-users when quality controlling derived ocean color products. Further, OPTSHAL may prove useful as a mechanism for switching between optically deep and shallow algorithms during ocean color processing.

On Some Aspects of Precipitation over Tropical Indian Ocean Using Satellite Data

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

RameshKumar, M.R.; Sreejith, O.P.

The annual and inter-annual variability of precipitation over the tropical Indian Ocean is studied for the period 1979–1997, using satellite data from a variety of sensors. The Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis Precipitation (CMAP...

Predictability of Subsurface Temperature and the AMOC

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, Y.; Schubert, S. D.

2013-12-01

GEOS 5 coupled model is extensively used for experimental decadal climate prediction. Understanding the limits of decadal ocean predictability is critical for making progress in these efforts. Using this model, we study the subsurface temperature initial value predictability, the variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and its impacts on the global climate. Our approach is to utilize the idealized data assimilation technology developed at the GMAO. The technique 'replay' allows us to assess, for example, the impact of the surface wind stresses and/or precipitation on the ocean in a very well controlled environment. By running the coupled model in replay mode we can in fact constrain the model using any existing reanalysis data set. We replay the model constraining (nudging) it to the MERRA reanalysis in various fields from 1948-2012. The fields, u,v,T,q,ps, are adjusted towards the 6-hourly analyzed fields in atmosphere. The simulated AMOC variability is studied with a 400-year-long segment of replay integration. The 84 cases of 10-year hindcasts are initialized from 4 different replay cycles. Here, the variability and predictability are examined further by a measure to quantify how much the subsurface temperature and AMOC variability has been influenced by atmospheric forcing and by ocean internal variability. The simulated impact of the AMOC on the multi-decadal variability of the SST, sea surface height (SSH) and sea ice extent is also studied.

Detection of anthropogenic climate change in satellite records of ocean chlorophyll and productivity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. A. Henson

2010-02-01

Full Text Available Global climate change is predicted to alter the ocean's biological productivity. But how will we recognise the impacts of climate change on ocean productivity? The most comprehensive information available on its global distribution comes from satellite ocean colour data. Now that over ten years of satellite-derived chlorophyll and productivity data have accumulated, can we begin to detect and attribute climate change-driven trends in productivity? Here we compare recent trends in satellite ocean colour data to longer-term time series from three biogeochemical models (GFDL, IPSL and NCAR. We find that detection of climate change-driven trends in the satellite data is confounded by the relatively short time series and large interannual and decadal variability in productivity. Thus, recent observed changes in chlorophyll, primary production and the size of the oligotrophic gyres cannot be unequivocally attributed to the impact of global climate change. Instead, our analyses suggest that a time series of ~40 years length is needed to distinguish a global warming trend from natural variability. In some regions, notably equatorial regions, detection times are predicted to be shorter (~20–30 years. Analysis of modelled chlorophyll and primary production from 2001–2100 suggests that, on average, the climate change-driven trend will not be unambiguously separable from decadal variability until ~2055. Because the magnitude of natural variability in chlorophyll and primary production is larger than, or similar to, the global warming trend, a consistent, decades-long data record must be established if the impact of climate change on ocean productivity is to be definitively detected.

Understanding Climate Uncertainty with an Ocean Focus

Science.gov (United States)

Tokmakian, R. T.

2009-12-01

Uncertainty in climate simulations arises from various aspects of the end-to-end process of modeling the Earth’s climate. First, there is uncertainty from the structure of the climate model components (e.g. ocean/ice/atmosphere). Even the most complex models are deficient, not only in the complexity of the processes they represent, but in which processes are included in a particular model. Next, uncertainties arise from the inherent error in the initial and boundary conditions of a simulation. Initial conditions are the state of the weather or climate at the beginning of the simulation and other such things, and typically come from observations. Finally, there is the uncertainty associated with the values of parameters in the model. These parameters may represent physical constants or effects, such as ocean mixing, or non-physical aspects of modeling and computation. The uncertainty in these input parameters propagates through the non-linear model to give uncertainty in the outputs. The models in 2020 will no doubt be better than today’s models, but they will still be imperfect, and development of uncertainty analysis technology is a critical aspect of understanding model realism and prediction capability. Smith [2002] and Cox and Stephenson [2007] discuss the need for methods to quantify the uncertainties within complicated systems so that limitations or weaknesses of the climate model can be understood. In making climate predictions, we need to have available both the most reliable model or simulation and a methods to quantify the reliability of a simulation. If quantitative uncertainty questions of the internal model dynamics are to be answered with complex simulations such as AOGCMs, then the only known path forward is based on model ensembles that characterize behavior with alternative parameter settings [e.g. Rougier, 2007]. The relevance and feasibility of using "Statistical Analysis of Computer Code Output" (SACCO) methods for examining uncertainty in

Ocean acidification genetics - Genetics and genomics of response to ocean acidification

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — We are applying a variety of genetic tools to assess the response of our ocean resources to ocean acidification, including gene expression techniques, identification...

Food web changes under ocean acidification promote herring larvae survival.

Science.gov (United States)

Sswat, Michael; Stiasny, Martina H; Taucher, Jan; Algueró-Muñiz, Maria; Bach, Lennart T; Jutfelt, Fredrik; Riebesell, Ulf; Clemmesen, Catriona

2018-05-01

Ocean acidification-the decrease in seawater pH due to rising CO 2 concentrations-has been shown to lower survival in early life stages of fish and, as a consequence, the recruitment of populations including commercially important species. To date, ocean-acidification studies with fish larvae have focused on the direct physiological impacts of elevated CO 2 , but largely ignored the potential effects of ocean acidification on food web interactions. In an in situ mesocosm study on Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) larvae as top predators in a pelagic food web, we account for indirect CO 2 effects on larval survival mediated by changes in food availability. The community was exposed to projected end-of-the-century CO 2 conditions (~760 µatm pCO 2 ) over a period of 113 days. In contrast with laboratory studies that reported a decrease in fish survival, the survival of the herring larvae in situ was significantly enhanced by 19 ± 2%. Analysis of the plankton community dynamics suggested that the herring larvae benefitted from a CO 2 -stimulated increase in primary production. Such indirect effects may counteract the possible direct negative effects of ocean acidification on the survival of fish early life stages. These findings emphasize the need to assess the food web effects of ocean acidification on fish larvae before we can predict even the sign of change in fish recruitment in a high-CO 2 ocean.

Southern Ocean Phytoplankton in a Changing Climate

OpenAIRE

Deppeler, Stacy L.; Davidson, Andrew T.

2017-01-01

Phytoplankton are the base of the Antarctic food web, sustain the wealth and diversity of life for which Antarctica is renowned, and play a critical role in biogeochemical cycles that mediate global climate. Over the vast expanse of the Southern Ocean (SO), the climate is variously predicted to experience increased warming, strengthening wind, acidification, shallowing mixed layer depths, increased light (and UV), changes in upwelling and nutrient replenishment, declining sea ice, reduced sal...

Simulating the Oceanic Migration of Silver Japanese Eels.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yu-Lin Chang

Full Text Available The oceanic migration of silver Japanese eels starts from their continental growth habitats in East Asia and ends at the spawning area near the West Mariana Ridge seamount chain. However, the actual migration routes remain unknown. In this study, we examined the possible oceanic migration routes and strategies of silver Japanese eels using a particle tracking method in which virtual eels (v-eels were programmed to move vertically and horizontally in an ocean circulation model (Japan Coastal Ocean Predictability Experiment 2, JCOPE2. Four horizontal swimming strategies were tested: random heading, true navigation (readjusted heading, orientation toward the spawning area (fixed heading, and swimming against the Kuroshio. We found that all strategies, except random swimming, allowed v-eels swimming at 0.65 m s-1 to reach the spawning area within eight months after their departure from the south coast of Japan (end of the spawning season. The estimated minimum swimming speed required to reach the area spawning within eight months was 0.1 m s-1 for true navigation, 0.12 m s-1 for constant compass heading, and 0.35 m s-1 for swimming against the Kuroshio. The lowest swimming speed estimated from tracked Japanese eels at sea was 0.03 m.s-1, which would not allow them to reach the spawning area within eight months, through any of the tested orientation strategies. Our numerical experiments also showed that ocean circulation significantly affected the migration of Japanese v-eels. A strong Kuroshio could advect v-eels further eastward. In addition, western Pacific ocean currents accelerated the migration of navigating v-eels. The migration duration was shortened in years with a stronger southward flow, contributed by a stronger recirculation south of Japan, an enhanced subtropical gyre, or a higher southward Kuroshio velocity.

Simulating the Oceanic Migration of Silver Japanese Eels.

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, Yu-Lin; Miyazawa, Yasumasa; Béguer-Pon, Mélanie

2016-01-01

The oceanic migration of silver Japanese eels starts from their continental growth habitats in East Asia and ends at the spawning area near the West Mariana Ridge seamount chain. However, the actual migration routes remain unknown. In this study, we examined the possible oceanic migration routes and strategies of silver Japanese eels using a particle tracking method in which virtual eels (v-eels) were programmed to move vertically and horizontally in an ocean circulation model (Japan Coastal Ocean Predictability Experiment 2, JCOPE2). Four horizontal swimming strategies were tested: random heading, true navigation (readjusted heading), orientation toward the spawning area (fixed heading), and swimming against the Kuroshio. We found that all strategies, except random swimming, allowed v-eels swimming at 0.65 m s-1 to reach the spawning area within eight months after their departure from the south coast of Japan (end of the spawning season). The estimated minimum swimming speed required to reach the area spawning within eight months was 0.1 m s-1 for true navigation, 0.12 m s-1 for constant compass heading, and 0.35 m s-1 for swimming against the Kuroshio. The lowest swimming speed estimated from tracked Japanese eels at sea was 0.03 m.s-1, which would not allow them to reach the spawning area within eight months, through any of the tested orientation strategies. Our numerical experiments also showed that ocean circulation significantly affected the migration of Japanese v-eels. A strong Kuroshio could advect v-eels further eastward. In addition, western Pacific ocean currents accelerated the migration of navigating v-eels. The migration duration was shortened in years with a stronger southward flow, contributed by a stronger recirculation south of Japan, an enhanced subtropical gyre, or a higher southward Kuroshio velocity.

Vertical structure of predictability and information transport over the Northern Hemisphere

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Feng Ai-Xia; Wang Qi-Gang; Gong Zhi-Qiang; Feng Guo-Lin

2014-01-01

Based on nonlinear prediction and information theory, vertical heterogeneity of predictability and information loss rate in geopotential height field are obtained over the Northern Hemisphere. On a seasonal-to-interannual time scale, the predictability is low in the lower troposphere and high in the mid-upper troposphere. However, within mid-upper troposphere over the subtropics ocean area, there is a relatively poor predictability. These conclusions also fit the seasonal time scale. Moving to the interannual time scale, the predictability becomes high in the lower troposphere and low in the mid-upper troposphere, contrary to the former case. On the whole the interannual trend is more predictable than the seasonal trend. The average information loss rate is low over the mid-east Pacific, west of North America, Atlantic and Eurasia, and the atmosphere over other places has a relatively high information loss rate on all-time scales. Two channels are found steadily over the Pacific Ocean and Atlantic Ocean in subtropics. There are also unstable channels. The four-season influence on predictability and information communication are studied. The predictability is low, no matter which season data are removed and each season plays an important role in the existence of the channels, except for the winter. The predictability and teleconnections are paramount issues in atmospheric science, and the teleconnections may be established by communication channels. So, this work is interesting since it reveals the vertical structure of predictability distribution, channel locations, and the contributions of different time scales to them and their variations under different seasons. (geophysics, astronomy, and astrophysics)

Distribution of planktonic biogenic carbonate organisms in the Southern Ocean south of Australia: a baseline for ocean acidification impact assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Trull, Thomas W.; Passmore, Abraham; Davies, Diana M.; Smit, Tim; Berry, Kate; Tilbrook, Bronte

2018-01-01

restricted to subtropical and northern subantarctic waters. The cause of the strong southward decrease in PIC abundance in the Southern Ocean is not yet clear. The poleward decrease in pH is small, and while calcite saturation decreases strongly southward, it remains well above saturation ( > 2). Nitrate and phosphate variations would predict a poleward increase. Temperature and competition with diatoms for limiting iron appear likely to be important. While the future trajectory of coccolithophore distributions remains uncertain, their current low abundances suggest small impacts on overall Southern Ocean pelagic ecology.

Distribution of planktonic biogenic carbonate organisms in the Southern Ocean south of Australia: a baseline for ocean acidification impact assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T. W. Trull

2018-01-01

coccolithophores as overly restricted to subtropical and northern subantarctic waters. The cause of the strong southward decrease in PIC abundance in the Southern Ocean is not yet clear. The poleward decrease in pH is small, and while calcite saturation decreases strongly southward, it remains well above saturation ( > 2. Nitrate and phosphate variations would predict a poleward increase. Temperature and competition with diatoms for limiting iron appear likely to be important. While the future trajectory of coccolithophore distributions remains uncertain, their current low abundances suggest small impacts on overall Southern Ocean pelagic ecology.

78 FR 32556 - Safety Zone; 2013 Ocean City Air Show, Atlantic Ocean; Ocean City, MD

Science.gov (United States)

2013-05-31

... FR Federal Register NPRM Notice of Proposed Rulemaking A. Regulatory History and Information The... Atlantic Ocean in Ocean City, MD. In recent years, there have been unfortunate instances of jets and planes...

Ocean acidification and the loss of phenolic substances in marine plants.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thomas Arnold

Full Text Available Rising atmospheric CO(2 often triggers the production of plant phenolics, including many that serve as herbivore deterrents, digestion reducers, antimicrobials, or ultraviolet sunscreens. Such responses are predicted by popular models of plant defense, especially resource availability models which link carbon availability to phenolic biosynthesis. CO(2 availability is also increasing in the oceans, where anthropogenic emissions cause ocean acidification, decreasing seawater pH and shifting the carbonate system towards further CO(2 enrichment. Such conditions tend to increase seagrass productivity but may also increase rates of grazing on these marine plants. Here we show that high CO(2 / low pH conditions of OA decrease, rather than increase, concentrations of phenolic protective substances in seagrasses and eurysaline marine plants. We observed a loss of simple and polymeric phenolics in the seagrass Cymodocea nodosa near a volcanic CO(2 vent on the Island of Vulcano, Italy, where pH values decreased from 8.1 to 7.3 and pCO(2 concentrations increased ten-fold. We observed similar responses in two estuarine species, Ruppia maritima and Potamogeton perfoliatus, in in situ Free-Ocean-Carbon-Enrichment experiments conducted in tributaries of the Chesapeake Bay, USA. These responses are strikingly different than those exhibited by terrestrial plants. The loss of phenolic substances may explain the higher-than-usual rates of grazing observed near undersea CO(2 vents and suggests that ocean acidification may alter coastal carbon fluxes by affecting rates of decomposition, grazing, and disease. Our observations temper recent predictions that seagrasses would necessarily be "winners" in a high CO(2 world.

Topex/Poseidon: A United States/France mission. Oceanography from space: The oceans and climate

Science.gov (United States)

1992-01-01

The TOPEX/POSEIDON space mission, sponsored by NASA and France's space agency, the Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales (CNES), will give new observations of the Earth from space to gain a quantitative understanding of the role of ocean currents in climate change. Rising atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other 'greenhouse gases' produced as a result of human activities could generate a global warming, followed by an associated rise in sea level. The satellite will use radar altimetry to measure sea-surface height and will be tracked by three independent systems to yield accurate topographic maps over the dimensions of entire ocean basins. The satellite data, together with the Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere (TOGA) program and the World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) measurements, will be analyzed by an international scientific team. By merging the satellite observations with TOGA and WOCE findings, the scientists will establish the extensive data base needed for the quantitative description and computer modeling of ocean circulation. The ocean models will eventually be coupled with atmospheric models to lay the foundation for predictions of global climate change.

Anthropogenic ocean acidification over the twenty-first century and its impact on calcifying organisms.

Science.gov (United States)

Orr, James C; Fabry, Victoria J; Aumont, Olivier; Bopp, Laurent; Doney, Scott C; Feely, Richard A; Gnanadesikan, Anand; Gruber, Nicolas; Ishida, Akio; Joos, Fortunat; Key, Robert M; Lindsay, Keith; Maier-Reimer, Ernst; Matear, Richard; Monfray, Patrick; Mouchet, Anne; Najjar, Raymond G; Plattner, Gian-Kasper; Rodgers, Keith B; Sabine, Christopher L; Sarmiento, Jorge L; Schlitzer, Reiner; Slater, Richard D; Totterdell, Ian J; Weirig, Marie-France; Yamanaka, Yasuhiro; Yool, Andrew

2005-09-29

Today's surface ocean is saturated with respect to calcium carbonate, but increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations are reducing ocean pH and carbonate ion concentrations, and thus the level of calcium carbonate saturation. Experimental evidence suggests that if these trends continue, key marine organisms--such as corals and some plankton--will have difficulty maintaining their external calcium carbonate skeletons. Here we use 13 models of the ocean-carbon cycle to assess calcium carbonate saturation under the IS92a 'business-as-usual' scenario for future emissions of anthropogenic carbon dioxide. In our projections, Southern Ocean surface waters will begin to become undersaturated with respect to aragonite, a metastable form of calcium carbonate, by the year 2050. By 2100, this undersaturation could extend throughout the entire Southern Ocean and into the subarctic Pacific Ocean. When live pteropods were exposed to our predicted level of undersaturation during a two-day shipboard experiment, their aragonite shells showed notable dissolution. Our findings indicate that conditions detrimental to high-latitude ecosystems could develop within decades, not centuries as suggested previously.

A basal magma ocean dynamo to explain the early lunar magnetic field

Science.gov (United States)

Scheinberg, Aaron L.; Soderlund, Krista M.; Elkins-Tanton, Linda T.

2018-06-01

The source of the ancient lunar magnetic field is an unsolved problem in the Moon's evolution. Theoretical work invoking a core dynamo has been unable to explain the magnitude of the observed field, falling instead one to two orders of magnitude below it. Since surface magnetic field strength is highly sensitive to the depth and size of the dynamo region, we instead hypothesize that the early lunar dynamo was driven by convection in a basal magma ocean formed from the final stages of an early lunar magma ocean; this material is expected to be dense, radioactive, and metalliferous. Here we use numerical convection models to predict the longevity and heat flow of such a basal magma ocean and use scaling laws to estimate the resulting magnetic field strength. We show that, if sufficiently electrically conducting, a magma ocean could have produced an early dynamo with surface fields consistent with the paleomagnetic observations.

Oceanic Loading Eect near the European Coast

Science.gov (United States)

Spiridonov, E.; Vinogradova, O.; Boyarskiy, E.; Afanasieva, L.

2012-04-01

The dissipation, anisotropy, and rotation constraints of the total oceanic gravimetric effect are analysed. The dependence of the results on the selected P- and S-velocity model (i.e., on the structure of the crust and upper mantle of the Earth) is considered. For calculating the effect of oceanic loading, we apply the method of Legendre polynomial expansion of tidal heights. The CSR3 model data are expanded up to the 720th order. The results yielded by this method closely agree with those calculated from the Green's functions by the LOAD07 program of the ETERNA software. Remarkable advantage of our program over other approaches is that it provides high-speed processing and does not require introducing the near-field formalism. Application of the pre-computed expansions reduces the time of calculations by two orders of magnitude, compared to LOAD07. This is particularly important when analyzing the geographical distributions of the loading effect predicted by different models. Taking dissipation into account improves the total gravimetric effect calculated for the M2 wave near the coast of Europe by 0.1-0.2 mcGal in amplitude and by a few hundredths of degree in phase. Transition from the PREM model to the IASP91 model which is better suitable for Europe changes the model predictions by 0.1-0.4 mcGal in amplitude and by 0.1 to 5-7 degrees in phase. Thus, allowance for dissipation together with the use of the refined data on the crustal and upper-mantle structure of the Earth may contribute, at places, over 0.5 mcGal to the amplitude and a few degrees to the phase of the total oceanic gravimetric effect. In this relation, particular attention should be paid to the regions about the Land's End cape (Cape Cornwall) and Cape Saint Mathieu.

Proceedings of oceans '91

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1991-01-01

This volume contains the proceedings of the Oceans '91 Conference. Topics addressed include: ocean energy conversion, marine communications and navigation, ocean wave energy conversion, environmental modeling, global climate change, ocean minerals technology, oil spill technology, and submersible vehicles

Revealing skill of the MiKlip decadal prediction system by three-dimensional probabilistic evaluation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sophie Stolzenberger

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Decadal climate predictions and their verification are part of ongoing research. This article studies different methods applied to decadal hindcasts of three-dimensional atmospheric variables to evaluate the MiKlip (Mittelfristige Klimaprognosen prediction system. Variables such as upper air temperature are tight to the core of the prediction system and hence help to reveal its power and deficiencies. The verification uses both, necessary and sufficient probabilistic measures. We analyze annual and multi-year averages of air temperature and geopotential height and the parametrized quantity net water flux at the ocean surface, the so-called freshwater flux, also known as E‑P (evaporation minus precipitation, as an important variable for atmosphere-ocean coupling. The model data stem from various versions of the MiKlip prediction system and constitute different sets of ensemble hindcasts covering 1979–2012. The results reveal that the freshwater flux is far more sensitive to model deficiencies than the basic dynamical variables and the predictability decays much earlier with prediction lead time. Initializing the atmospheric component is more important for the predictability than the difference in resolution between two model versions. The combined initialization of atmosphere and ocean has the effect of increasing the predictability in the inner tropics from 1 to 2 years compared to the ocean only initialization. For prediction year 7–10, the hindcasts are still closer to each other than to the uninitialized historical runs indicating that the prediction system is still influenced by the initial conditions. The skill for prediction year 7–10 is, however, only marginally larger than the skill of the uninitialized ensemble. The three-dimensional skill analysis reveals a clear indication of a mid-tropospheric temperature error developing in the tropical Pacific area.

An inventory of Arctic Ocean data in the World Ocean Database

Science.gov (United States)

Zweng, Melissa M.; Boyer, Tim P.; Baranova, Olga K.; Reagan, James R.; Seidov, Dan; Smolyar, Igor V.

2018-03-01

The World Ocean Database (WOD) contains over 1.3 million oceanographic casts (where cast refers to an oceanographic profile or set of profiles collected concurrently at more than one depth between the ocean surface and ocean bottom) collected in the Arctic Ocean basin and its surrounding marginal seas. The data, collected from 1849 to the present, come from many submitters and countries, and were collected using a variety of instruments and platforms. These data, along with the derived products World Ocean Atlas (WOA) and the Arctic Regional Climatologies, are exceptionally useful - the data are presented in a standardized, easy to use format and include metadata and quality control information. Collecting data in the Arctic Ocean is challenging, and coverage in space and time ranges from excellent to nearly non-existent. WOD continues to compile a comprehensive collection of Arctic Ocean profile data, ideal for oceanographic, environmental and climatic analyses (https://doi.org/10.7289/V54Q7S16" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.7289/V54Q7S16).

Wagging the Pacific Dog by its Indian Tail? : A west Indian Ocean Precursor to El Niño

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wieners, C.E.

2018-01-01

Cool Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies tend to prevail in the Seychelles Dome region (Southwest Indian Ocean, NE of Madagascar) during the Northern hemisphere summer-autumn 1.5 years before El Niño. This West Indian Ocean precursor might potentially help to predict El Niño/Southern Oscillation

Oceans Melting Greenland: Early Results from NASA's Ocean-Ice Mission in Greenland

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fenty, Ian; Willis, Josh K.; Khazendar, Ala

2016-01-01

the continental shelf, and about the extent to which the ocean interacts with glaciers. Early results from NASA's five-year Oceans Melting Greenland (OMG) mission, based on extensive hydrographic and bathymetric surveys, suggest that many glaciers terminate in deep water and are hence vulnerable to increased...... melting due to ocean-ice interaction. OMG will track ocean conditions and ice loss at glaciers around Greenland through the year 2020, providing critical information about ocean-driven Greenland ice mass loss in a warming climate....

Ocean OSSEs: recent developments and future challenges

Science.gov (United States)

Kourafalou, V. H.

2012-12-01

Atmospheric OSSEs have had a much longer history of applications than OSSEs (and OSEs) in oceanography. Long standing challenges include the presence of coastlines and steep bathymetric changes, which require the superposition of a wide variety of space and time scales, leading to difficulties on ocean observation and prediction. For instance, remote sensing is critical for providing a quasi-synoptic oceanographic view, but the coverage is limited at the ocean surface. Conversely, in situ measurements are capable to monitor the entire water column, but at a single location and usually for a specific, short time. Despite these challenges, substantial progress has been made in recent years and international initiatives have provided successful OSSE/OSE examples and formed appropriate forums that helped define the future roadmap. These will be discussed, together with various challenges that require a community effort. Examples include: integrated (remote and in situ) observing system requirements for monitoring large scale and climatic changes, vs. short term variability that is particularly important on the regional and coastal spatial scales; satisfying the needs of both global and regional/coastal nature runs, from development to rigorous evaluation and under a clear definition of metrics; data assimilation in the presence of tides; estimation of real-time river discharges for Earth system modeling. An overview of oceanographic efforts that complement the standard OSSE methodology will also be given. These include ocean array design methods, such as representer-based analysis and adaptive sampling. Exciting new opportunities for both global and regional ocean OSSE/OSE studies have recently become possible with targeted periods of comprehensive data sets, such as the existing Gulf of Mexico observations from multiple sources in the aftermath of the DeepWater Horizon incident and the upcoming airborne AirSWOT, in preparation for the SWOT (Surface Water and Ocean

Ocean Acidification and the End-Permian Mass Extinction: To What Extent does Evidence Support Hypothesis?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marie-Béatrice Forel

2012-09-01

Full Text Available Ocean acidification in modern oceans is linked to rapid increase in atmospheric CO2, raising concern about marine diversity, food security and ecosystem services. Proxy evidence for acidification during past crises may help predict future change, but three issues limit confidence of comparisons between modern and ancient ocean acidification, illustrated from the end-Permian extinction, 252 million years ago: (1 problems with evidence for ocean acidification preserved in sedimentary rocks, where proposed marine dissolution surfaces may be subaerial. Sedimentary evidence that the extinction was partly due to ocean acidification is therefore inconclusive; (2 Fossils of marine animals potentially affected by ocean acidification are imperfect records of past conditions; selective extinction of hypercalcifying organisms is uncertain evidence for acidification; (3 The current high rates of acidification may not reflect past rates, which cannot be measured directly, and whose temporal resolution decreases in older rocks. Thus large increases in CO2 in the past may have occurred over a long enough time to have allowed assimilation into the oceans, and acidification may not have stressed ocean biota to the present extent. Although we acknowledge the very likely occurrence of past ocean acidification, obtaining support presents a continuing challenge for the Earth science community.

Fritz Schott's Contributions to the Understanding of the Ocean Circulation

Science.gov (United States)

Visbeck, M.

2009-04-01

The ocean circulation and its central significance for global climate lay at the heart of Fritz's research. In the context of hard-won data from his more than 30 research cruises to key regions of the Atlantic and Indian oceans, he made fundamental contributions to our understanding of the wind-driven and thermohaline ocean circulation. His insights and explorations of circulation and dynamics of the tropical Indian and Atlantic Oceans have led the field and provided a large part of the basis for planning large, international experiments. Fritz's work is also distinguished by his making exceptional use of modeling results, increasingly as the models have improved. His research has provided a much clearer correspondence between the observed ocean-structure and dynamical theory-noting both theoretical successes and limitations. Besides his general interest in the physical oceanography of the World Oceans, most of his research was devoted to the dynamics of tropical oceans with its intense and highly variable current systems. Concerning the Indian Ocean, Fritz's investigated the response of the Somali Current system to the variable monsoon winds in the early 1980's, obtaining high-quality, hydrographic surveys and the first long term direct measurement of ocean currents from moored arrays. His analyses and interpretations provided a synthesis of the complex circulations there. In the tropical Atlantic Ocean Fritz research focused on the western boundary circulation with important contributions to the understanding of the North Brazil Current retroflection, and the variability of the shallow and deep western boundary currents. Trying to solve the fundamental question ‘what is the role of the tropical ocean for climate variability', Fritz initiated large multinational research programs under the umbrella of the World Climate Research Projects WOCE (World Ocean Circulation Experiment) and CLIVAR (Climate Variability and Predictability). Fritz was the initiator and

Deep oceans may acidify faster than anticipated due to global warming

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Chen-Tung Arthur; Lui, Hon-Kit; Hsieh, Chia-Han; Yanagi, Tetsuo; Kosugi, Naohiro; Ishii, Masao; Gong, Gwo-Ching

2017-12-01

Oceans worldwide are undergoing acidification due to the penetration of anthropogenic CO2 from the atmosphere1-4. The rate of acidification generally diminishes with increasing depth. Yet, slowing down of the thermohaline circulation due to global warming could reduce the pH in the deep oceans, as more organic material would decompose with a longer residence time. To elucidate this process, a time-series study at a climatically sensitive region with sufficient duration and resolution is needed. Here we show that deep waters in the Sea of Japan are undergoing reduced ventilation, reducing the pH of seawater. As a result, the acidification rate near the bottom of the Sea of Japan is 27% higher than the rate at the surface, which is the same as that predicted assuming an air-sea CO2 equilibrium. This reduced ventilation may be due to global warming and, as an oceanic microcosm with its own deep- and bottom-water formations, the Sea of Japan provides an insight into how future warming might alter the deep-ocean acidification.

Predicting minimum uncertainties in the inversion of ocean color geophysical parameters based on Cramer-Rao bounds.

Science.gov (United States)

Jay, Sylvain; Guillaume, Mireille; Chami, Malik; Minghelli, Audrey; Deville, Yannick; Lafrance, Bruno; Serfaty, Véronique

2018-01-22

We present an analytical approach based on Cramer-Rao Bounds (CRBs) to investigate the uncertainties in estimated ocean color parameters resulting from the propagation of uncertainties in the bio-optical reflectance modeling through the inversion process. Based on given bio-optical and noise probabilistic models, CRBs can be computed efficiently for any set of ocean color parameters and any sensor configuration, directly providing the minimum estimation variance that can be possibly attained by any unbiased estimator of any targeted parameter. Here, CRBs are explicitly developed using (1) two water reflectance models corresponding to deep and shallow waters, resp., and (2) four probabilistic models describing the environmental noises observed within four Sentinel-2 MSI, HICO, Sentinel-3 OLCI and MODIS images, resp. For both deep and shallow waters, CRBs are shown to be consistent with the experimental estimation variances obtained using two published remote-sensing methods, while not requiring one to perform any inversion. CRBs are also used to investigate to what extent perfect a priori knowledge on one or several geophysical parameters can improve the estimation of remaining unknown parameters. For example, using pre-existing knowledge of bathymetry (e.g., derived from LiDAR) within the inversion is shown to greatly improve the retrieval of bottom cover for shallow waters. Finally, CRBs are shown to provide valuable information on the best estimation performances that may be achieved with the MSI, HICO, OLCI and MODIS configurations for a variety of oceanic, coastal and inland waters. CRBs are thus demonstrated to be an informative and efficient tool to characterize minimum uncertainties in inverted ocean color geophysical parameters.

Arctic Ocean Paleoceanography and Future IODP Drilling

Science.gov (United States)

Stein, Ruediger

2015-04-01

areas and approaches for drilling and recovering undisturbed and complete sedimentary sequences are depth transects across the major ocean ridge systems, such as the Lomonosov Ridge. These new detailed climate records spanning time intervals from the (late Cretaceous/)Paleogene Greenhouse world to the Neogene-Quaternary Icehouse world will give new insights into our understanding of the Arctic Ocean within the global climate system and provide an opportunity to test the performance of climate models used to predict future climate change. During the Polarstern Expedition PS87 in August-September 2014, new site survey data including detailed multibeam bathymetry, multi-channel seismic and Parasound profiling as well as geological coring, were obtained on Lomonosov Ridge (Stein, 2015), being the basis for a more precise planning and update for a future IODP drilling campaign. Reference: Stein, R. (Ed.), 2015. Cruise Report of Polarstern Expedition PS87-2014 (Arctic Ocean/Lomonosov Ridge). Reps. Pol. Mar. Res., in press. Stein, R. , Weller, P. , Backman, J. , Brinkhuis, H., Moran, K. , Pälike, H., 2014. Cenozoic Arctic Ocean Climate History: Some highlights from the IODP Arctic Coring Expedition (ACEX). Developments in Marine Geology 7, Elsevier Amsterdam/New York, pp. 259-293.

Oceanic archipelagos

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Triantis, Kostas A.; Whittaker, Robert James; Fernández-Palacios, José María

2016-01-01

Since the contributions of Charles Darwin and Alfred Russel Wallace, oceanic archipelagos have played a central role in the development of biogeography. However, despite the critical influence of oceanic islands on ecological and evolutionary theory, our focus has remained limited to either the i...... of the archipelagic geological dynamics that can affect diversity at both the island and the archipelagic level. We also reaffirm that oceanic archipelagos are appropriate spatiotemporal units to frame analyses in order to understand large scale patterns of biodiversity....

Creep of ocean sediments resulting from the isolation of radioactive wastes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dawson, P.R.; Chavez, P.F.; Lipkin, J.; Silva, A.J.

1980-01-01

Predictive models for the creep of deep ocean sediments resulting from the disposal of radioactive wastes are presented and preliminary observations of a program for evaluation of creep constitutive equation parameters are discussed. The models are used to provide calculated response of sediments under waste disposal conditions

Pb, Nd and Sr isotopes in oceanic ferromanganese deposits and ocean floor basalts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

O'Nions, R.K.; Carter, S.R.; Cohen, R.S.; Evensen, N.M.; Hamilton, P.J.

1978-01-01

The Pb-, Nd-, and Sr-isotope compositions of oceanic ferromanganese deposits, together with the Nd- and Sr-isotope compositions of altered ocean-floor basalts, are here reported. These data are used to evaluate these metals as sources in both the oceans and ocean ferromanganese deposits and the extent to which ocean-floor basalts may be a source of, or a sink for, these metals. (author)

Finding the missing plastic -resolving the global mass (im)balance for plastic pollution in the ocean

Science.gov (United States)

Wilcox, C.; van Sebille, E.

2016-02-01

Several global studies have attempted to estimate the standing stock of plastic debris in the oceans at the global scale. However, recent work estimating the amount lost from land on an annual basis suggests that the standing stock should be several orders of magnitude larger than the global estimates. We investigate the role of coastal deposition within the first few weeks after plastic enters the ocean and very near its sources, one of the hypothesized sinks for the missing plastic in this mass balance. We utilize a continental scale dataset of plastics collected along Australia's coast and in the offshore regions together with models of plastic release and transport based on Lagrangian tracking to investigate the role of local deposition in the coastal environment. Our models predict that the vast majority of positively buoyant plastic is deposited within a very short distance from its release point, with only a small fraction escaping into the open ocean. These predictions match our coastal and offshore observations, providing clear evidence that this mechanism of immediate coastal deposition is, at least in part, driving the apparent mismatch between coastal emissions and the standing stock in the ocean.

MERSEA, the European Gate to Ocean Data

Science.gov (United States)

Blanc, F. P.; Manzella, G.; Maudire, G.; Bahurel, P.; Bell, M.; Haines, K.

2004-12-01

Mersea ('Marine Environment and Security for the European Area'), a European project to manage the oceans, aims to develop by 2008 the GMES ocean component ('Global Monitoring for Environment and Security'), a system for operational monitoring and forecasting on global and regional scales of the ocean physics, bio-geochemistry and ecosystems. Mersea project started on April 1st, 2004. This ocean monitoring system is envisioned as an operational network that systematically acquires data and disseminates information to serve the needs of intermediate users and policy makers, in support of safe and efficient off-shore activities, environmental management, security, and sustainable use of marine resources. Three real-time data streams have been identified: remote sensed from satellites, in situ from ocean observing networks, and surface forcing fields from numerical weather prediction agencies. Mersea will ensure the availability of near real time and delayed mode products over the period 2004-2008, global and regional products optimised for supporting operational oceanography. Historical data sets for the last 15 years will also be prepared. Mersea is also the European center serving Godae goals ('Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment', 2003-2005). The timely delivery of high quality and reliable information to many user categories is essential for the success of such integrated project. There is consequently a large effort to coordinate all delivery actions giving special attention on the users' needs. This effort will cover many issues like product presentation, products and web services catalogue and how to deal for an interdisciplinary and integrated use. A first major difficulty is to reach at many levels product coherency and standardisation, which is needed to facilitate the visibility, understanding and exchange of the ocean observing data. A first task will therefore be to write a common unified framework guide, a kind of member chart, which will require

Ethane ocean on Titan

Science.gov (United States)

Lunine, J. I.; Stevenson, D. J.; Yung, Y.L.

1983-01-01

Voyager I radio occultation data is employed to develop a qualitative model of an ethane ocean on Titan. It is suggested that the ocean contains 25 percent CH4 and that the ocean is in dynamic equilibrium with an N2 atmosphere. Previous models of a CH4 ocean are discounted due to photolysis rates of CH4 gas. Tidal damping of Titan's orbital eccentricity is taken as evidence for an ocean layer approximately 1 km deep, with the ocean floor being covered with a solid C2H2 layer 100 to 200 m thick. The photolytic process disrupting the CH4, if the estimates of the oceanic content of CH4 are correct, could continue for at least one billion years. Verification of the model is dependent on detecting CH4 clouds in the lower atmosphere, finding C2H6 saturation in the lower troposphere, or obtaining evidence of a global ocean.

Quantifying and predicting historical and future patterns of carbon fluxes from the North American Continent to Ocean

Science.gov (United States)

Tian, H.; Zhang, B.; Xu, R.; Yang, J.; Yao, Y.; Pan, S.; Lohrenz, S. E.; Cai, W. J.; He, R.; Najjar, R. G.; Friedrichs, M. A. M.; Hofmann, E. E.

2017-12-01

Carbon export through river channels to coastal waters is a fundamental component of the global carbon cycle. Changes in the terrestrial environment, both natural (e.g., climatic change, enriched CO2 concentration, and elevated ozone concentration) and anthropogenic (e.g, deforestation, cropland expansion, and urbanization) have greatly altered carbon production, stocks, decomposition, movement and export from land to river and ocean systems. However, the magnitude and spatiotemporal patterns of lateral carbon fluxes from land to oceans and the underlying mechanisms responsible for these fluxes remain far from certain. Here we applied a process-based land model with explicit representation of carbon processes in stream and rivers (Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model: DLEM 2.0) to examine how changes in climate, land use, atmospheric CO2, and nitrogen deposition have affected the carbon fluxes from North American continent to Ocean during 1980-2015. Our simulated results indicated that terrestrial carbon export shows substantially spatial and temporal variability. Of the five sub-regions (Arctic coast, Pacific coast, Gulf of Mexico, Atlantic coast, and Great lakes), the Arctic sub-region provides the highest DOC flux, whereas the Gulf of Mexico sub-region provided the highest DIC flux. However, terrestrial carbon export to the arctic oceans showed increasing trends for both DOC and DIC, whereas DOC and DIC export to the Gulf of Mexico decreased in the recent decades. Future pattern of riverine carbon fluxes would be largely dependent on the climate change and land use scenarios.

Global Ocean Phytoplankton

Science.gov (United States)

Franz, B. A.; Behrenfeld, M. J.; Siegel, D. A.; Werdell, P. J.

2014-01-01

Marine phytoplankton are responsible for roughly half the net primary production (NPP) on Earth, fixing atmospheric CO2 into food that fuels global ocean ecosystems and drives the ocean's biogeochemical cycles. Phytoplankton growth is highly sensitive to variations in ocean physical properties, such as upper ocean stratification and light availability within this mixed layer. Satellite ocean color sensors, such as the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS; McClain 2009) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS; Esaias 1998), provide observations of sufficient frequency and geographic coverage to globally monitor physically-driven changes in phytoplankton distributions. In practice, ocean color sensors retrieve the spectral distribution of visible solar radiation reflected upward from beneath the ocean surface, which can then be related to changes in the photosynthetic phytoplankton pigment, chlorophyll- a (Chla; measured in mg m-3). Here, global Chla data for 2013 are evaluated within the context of the 16-year continuous record provided through the combined observations of SeaWiFS (1997-2010) and MODIS on Aqua (MODISA; 2002-present). Ocean color measurements from the recently launched Visible and Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS; 2011-present) are also considered, but results suggest that the temporal calibration of the VIIRS sensor is not yet sufficiently stable for quantitative global change studies. All MODISA (version 2013.1), SeaWiFS (version 2010.0), and VIIRS (version 2013.1) data presented here were produced by NASA using consistent Chla algorithms.

First evaluation of MyOcean altimetric data in the Arctic Ocean

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cheng, Yongcun; Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Knudsen, Per

2012-01-01

The MyOcean V2 preliminary (V2p) data set of weekly gridded sea level anomaly (SLA) maps from 1993 to 2009 over the Arctic region is evaluated against existing altimetric data sets and tide gauge data. Compared with DUACS V3.0.0 (Data Unification and Altimeter Combination System) data set, MyOcean...... V2p data set improves spatial coverage and quality as well as maximum temporal correlation coefficient between altimetry and tide gauge data. The estimated amplitude of sea level annual signal and linear sea level trend from MyOcean data set are evaluated against altimetry from DUACS and RADS (Radar...... Altimeter Database System), the SODA (Simple Ocean Data Assimilation) ocean reanalysis and tide gauge data sets from PSMSL (Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level). The results show that the MyOcean data set fits in-situ measurements better than DUACS data set with respect to amplitude of annual signal...

The Southern Ocean Observing System

OpenAIRE

Rintoul, Stephen R.; Meredith, Michael P.; Schofield, Oscar; Newman, Louise

2012-01-01

The Southern Ocean includes the only latitude band where the ocean circles the earth unobstructed by continental boundaries. This accident of geography has profound consequences for global ocean circulation, biogeochemical cycles, and climate. The Southern Ocean connects the ocean basins and links the shallow and deep limbs of the overturning circulation (Rintoul et al., 2001). The ocean's capacity to moderate the pace of climate change is therefore influenced strongly by the Southern Ocean's...

The Oceans 2015 Initiative, Part I - An updated synthesis of the observed and projected impacts of climate change on physical and biological processes in the oceans

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Howes, Ella L.; Joos, Fortunat; Eakin, Mark; Gattuso, Jean-Pierre

2015-01-01

The oceans have absorbed approximately 93% of the excess heat caused by global warming. Warming increases stratification, limiting the circulation of nutrients from deep waters to the surface. There is evidence that enhanced stratification and increasing temperature are causing a decline in dissolved oxygen concentration and expanding existing oxygen minimum zones (OMZs). Approximately 26% of anthropogenic CO 2 is absorbed by the oceans, resulting in a reduction in pH and carbonate ion concentration, termed ocean acidification. Anthropogenic CO 2 has caused global ocean pH to decrease by 0.1 units since the start of the Industrial Revolution. The ocean ecosystems are responding to the changing environment, but at different rates and magnitudes and with interspecific and geographic variation in responses. Warming causes shifts in species' geographic distribution, abundance, migration patterns and phenology. Organisms that produce shells and skeletons from calcium carbonate are at most risk from ocean acidification as it lowers the saturation state of the mineral, favouring a dissolution reaction. To date, there are few observations of ocean acidification effects in natural communities; however, experimental evidence suggests that the risk to ecosystems will increase over the coming decades. Decreasing dissolved oxygen concentrations and expanding OMZs will favour anaerobic metabolisers such as bacteria and small microbes whilst reducing habitat for larger, oxygen dependent organisms. The interaction of multiple drivers can amplify or alleviate each other's effects. It is likely that marine organisms will experience a combination of warming, acidification and declining oxygen concentrations as well as regionally specific local stressors. This makes it difficult to predict the responses of individual species to multiple drivers, and species interactions make ecosystem- based projections challenging. Using the available evidence, projections have been

Drift in ocean currents impacts intergenerational microbial exposure to temperature.

Science.gov (United States)

Doblin, Martina A; van Sebille, Erik

2016-05-17

Microbes are the foundation of marine ecosystems [Falkowski PG, Fenchel T, Delong EF (2008) Science 320(5879):1034-1039]. Until now, the analytical framework for understanding the implications of ocean warming on microbes has not considered thermal exposure during transport in dynamic seascapes, implying that our current view of change for these critical organisms may be inaccurate. Here we show that upper-ocean microbes experience along-trajectory temperature variability up to 10 °C greater than seasonal fluctuations estimated in a static frame, and that this variability depends strongly on location. These findings demonstrate that drift in ocean currents can increase the thermal exposure of microbes and suggests that microbial populations with broad thermal tolerance will survive transport to distant regions of the ocean and invade new habitats. Our findings also suggest that advection has the capacity to influence microbial community assemblies, such that regions with strong currents and large thermal fluctuations select for communities with greatest plasticity and evolvability, and communities with narrow thermal performance are found where ocean currents are weak or along-trajectory temperature variation is low. Given that fluctuating environments select for individual plasticity in microbial lineages, and that physiological plasticity of ancestors can predict the magnitude of evolutionary responses of subsequent generations to environmental change [Schaum CE, Collins S (2014) Proc Biol Soc 281(1793):20141486], our findings suggest that microbial populations in the sub-Antarctic (∼40°S), North Pacific, and North Atlantic will have the most capacity to adapt to contemporary ocean warming.

Spatial competition dynamics between reef corals under ocean acidification

Science.gov (United States)

Horwitz, Rael; Hoogenboom, Mia O.; Fine, Maoz

2017-01-01

Climate change, including ocean acidification (OA), represents a major threat to coral-reef ecosystems. Although previous experiments have shown that OA can negatively affect the fitness of reef corals, these have not included the long-term effects of competition for space on coral growth rates. Our multispecies year-long study subjected reef-building corals from the Gulf of Aqaba (Red Sea) to competitive interactions under present-day ocean pH (pH 8.1) and predicted end-of-century ocean pH (pH 7.6). Results showed coral growth is significantly impeded by OA under intraspecific competition for five out of six study species. Reduced growth from OA, however, is negligible when growth is already suppressed in the presence of interspecific competition. Using a spatial competition model, our analysis indicates shifts in the competitive hierarchy and a decrease in overall coral cover under lowered pH. Collectively, our case study demonstrates how modified competitive performance under increasing OA will in all likelihood change the composition, structure and functionality of reef coral communities.

Two new ways of mapping sea ice thickness using ocean waves

Science.gov (United States)

Wadhams, P.

2010-12-01

TWO NEW METHODS OF MAPPING SEA ICE THICKNESS USING OCEAN WAVES. P. Wadhams (1,2), Martin Doble (1,2) and F. Parmiggiani (3) (1) Dept. of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB3 0WA, UK. (2) Laboratoire d’Océanographie de Villefranche, Université Pierre et Marie Curie, 06234 Villefranche-sur-Mer, France (2) ISAC-CNR, Bologna, Italy Two new methods of mapping ice thickness have been recently developed and tested, both making use of the dispersion relation of ocean waves in ice of radically different types. In frazil-pancake ice, a young ice type in which cakes less than 5 m across float in a suspension of individual ice crystals, the propagation of waves has been successfully modelled by treating the ice layer as a highly viscous fluid. The model predicts a shortening of wavelengths within the ice. Two-dimensional Fourier analysis of successive SAR subscenes to track the directional spectrum of a wave field as it enters an ice edge shows that waves do indeed shorten within the ice, and the change has been successfully used to predict the thickness of the frazil-pancake layer. Concurrent shipborne sampling in the Antarctic has shown that the method is accurate, and we now propose its use throughout the important frazil-pancake regimes in the world ocean (Antarctic circumpolar ice edge zone, Greenland Sea, Bering Sea and others). A radically different type of dispersion occurs when ocean waves enter the continuous icefields of the central Arctic, when they couple with the elastic ice cover to propagate as a flexural-gravity wave. A two-axis tiltmeter array has been used to measure the resulting change in the dispersion relation for long ocean swell (15-30 s) originating from storms in the Greenland Sea. The dispersion relation is slightly different from swell in the open ocean, so if two such arrays are placed a substantial distance (100s of km) apart and used to observe the changing wave period of arrivals from a given

Ship Track for The Hidden Ocean Arctic 2005 - Office of Ocean Exploration

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Ship track of the US Coast Guard icebreaker Healy during the "Hidden Ocean Arctic 2005" expedition sponsored by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration...

Ocean technology

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Peshwe, V.B.

stream_size 2 stream_content_type text/plain stream_name Voices_Oceans_1996_113.pdf.txt stream_source_info Voices_Oceans_1996_113.pdf.txt Content-Encoding ISO-8859-1 Content-Type text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1 ...

Ocean surface partitioning strategies using ocean colour remote Sensing: A review

Science.gov (United States)

Krug, Lilian Anne; Platt, Trevor; Sathyendranath, Shubha; Barbosa, Ana B.

2017-06-01

The ocean surface is organized into regions with distinct properties reflecting the complexity of interactions between environmental forcing and biological responses. The delineation of these functional units, each with unique, homogeneous properties and underlying ecosystem structure and dynamics, can be defined as ocean surface partitioning. The main purposes and applications of ocean partitioning include the evaluation of particular marine environments; generation of more accurate satellite ocean colour products; assimilation of data into biogeochemical and climate models; and establishment of ecosystem-based management practices. This paper reviews the diverse approaches implemented for ocean surface partition into functional units, using ocean colour remote sensing (OCRS) data, including their purposes, criteria, methods and scales. OCRS offers a synoptic, high spatial-temporal resolution, multi-decadal coverage of bio-optical properties, relevant to the applications and value of ocean surface partitioning. In combination with other biotic and/or abiotic data, OCRS-derived data (e.g., chlorophyll-a, optical properties) provide a broad and varied source of information that can be analysed using different delineation methods derived from subjective, expert-based to unsupervised learning approaches (e.g., cluster, fuzzy and empirical orthogonal function analyses). Partition schemes are applied at global to mesoscale spatial coverage, with static (time-invariant) or dynamic (time-varying) representations. A case study, the highly heterogeneous area off SW Iberian Peninsula (NE Atlantic), illustrates how the selection of spatial coverage and temporal representation affects the discrimination of distinct environmental drivers of phytoplankton variability. Advances in operational oceanography and in the subject area of satellite ocean colour, including development of new sensors, algorithms and products, are among the potential benefits from extended use, scope and

Simulation of anthropogenic CO2 uptake in the CCSM3.1 ocean circulation-biogeochemical model: comparison with data-based estimates

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Khatiwala

2012-04-01

Full Text Available The global ocean has taken up a large fraction of the CO2 released by human activities since the industrial revolution. Quantifying the oceanic anthropogenic carbon (Cant inventory and its variability is important for predicting the future global carbon cycle. The detailed comparison of data-based and model-based estimates is essential for the validation and continued improvement of our prediction capabilities. So far, three global estimates of oceanic Cant inventory that are "data-based" and independent of global ocean circulation models have been produced: one based on the Δ C* method, and two that are based on constraining surface-to-interior transport of tracers, the TTD method and a maximum entropy inversion method (GF. The GF method, in particular, is capable of reconstructing the history of Cant inventory through the industrial era. In the present study we use forward model simulations of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM3.1 to estimate the Cant inventory and compare the results with the data-based estimates. We also use the simulations to test several assumptions of the GF method, including the assumption of constant climate and circulation, which is common to all the data-based estimates. Though the integrated estimates of global Cant inventories are consistent with each other, the regional estimates show discrepancies up to 50 %. The CCSM3 model underestimates the total Cant inventory, in part due to weak mixing and ventilation in the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean. Analyses of different simulation results suggest that key assumptions about ocean circulation and air-sea disequilibrium in the GF method are generally valid on the global scale, but may introduce errors in Cant estimates on regional scales. The GF method should also be used with caution when predicting future oceanic anthropogenic carbon uptake.

Ocean acidification postcards

Science.gov (United States)

Schreppel, Heather A.; Cimitile, Matthew J.

2011-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is conducting research on ocean acidification in polar, temperate, subtropical, and tropical regions including the Arctic, West Florida Shelf, and the Caribbean. Project activities include field assessment, experimental laboratory studies, and evaluation of existing data. The USGS is participating in international and interagency working groups to develop research strategies to increase understanding of the global implications of ocean acidification. Research strategies include new approaches for seawater chemistry observation and modeling, assessment of physiological effects on organisms, changes in marine ecosystem structure, new technologies, and information resources. These postcards highlight ongoing USGS research efforts in ocean acidification and carbon cycling in marine and coastal ecosystems in three different regions: polar, temperate, and tropical. To learn more about ocean acidification visit: http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/ocean-acidification/.

Environmental monitoring and deep ocean disposal of packaged radioactive waste

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mitchell, N.T.; Preston, A.

1980-01-01

Environmental monitoring in the context of the dumping of packaged radioactive waste in the deep ocean is discussed in detail. The principles and objectives laid down by the IAEA and the ICRP are reviewed. Monitoring and its relationships to radiation exposure, research, control measures and public information are described. Finally, the actual practice in the UK of environmental monitoring is detailed for the measurable case of liquid wastes in coastal waters and also for package waste in deep oceans which has to be calculated. It is concluded that better mathematical models are needed to predict the dose to man and that more research into oceanographic and biological transfer processes should be carried out. (UK)

Prediction on global warming-up. Chikyu ondanka wo yosokusuru

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Noda, A [Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba (Japan)

1993-05-01

This paper introduces models to predict global warming-up caused by greenhouse effect of the earth and increase in greenhouse effect gases, and the prediction results. As a result of CO2 doubling experiments using three-dimensional climate models in predicting the global warming-up, a model that predicted a sharp rise in annual average ground temperatures on the entire earth showed a larger increase in precipitation. According to the result of the CO2 doubling experiments using atmosphere-ocean coupling models, it was learned that the temperature rises higher in high latitude regions rather than rising uniformly over the earth on the whole. The fact that the temperature rise when CO2 has been doubled in a CO2 gradually increasing experiment is smaller than in the doubling experiment can be understood as a delaying effect of oceans generated from their thermal inertia. The former experiment showed a remarkable non-symmetry between the Southern and Northern hemispheres, reflecting the effect of the great oceanic circulation. Increase in cloud amount has an effect of either cooling or warming the earth, but the cooling effect surpasses the warming effect reportedly. Sulfuric acid aerosol in the troposphere is thought to influence the process of solar radiation transmitting through the atmosphere and have an effect to cool down the ground surface. 12 refs., 6 figs.

Possible impact of global warming and ocean acidification on underwater sound in northern oceans: another perfect storm

Science.gov (United States)

Browning, David

2011-04-01

The greatest ocean pH change, which will result in lower low frequency sound attenuation, is predicted for higher latitudes. Here shallow sound channel axies exist, allowing the impact on sound to be seen sooner and also more extensively since the principal propagation paths will be near the surface. However, at the same time, higher wind speeds and greater ice breakup,as well as increased ship traffic, could result in higher noise levels. Marine mammals in this environment may have, on one hand, improving communication conditions but also the possibility of increased background noise.

The viscous lee wave problem and its implications for ocean modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Shakespeare, Callum J.; Hogg, Andrew McC.

2017-05-01

Ocean circulation models employ 'turbulent' viscosity and diffusivity to represent unresolved sub-gridscale processes such as breaking internal waves. Computational power has now advanced sufficiently to permit regional ocean circulation models to be run at sufficiently high (100 m-1 km) horizontal resolution to resolve a significant part of the internal wave spectrum. Here we develop theory for boundary generated internal waves in such models, and in particular, where the waves dissipate their energy. We focus specifically on the steady lee wave problem where stationary waves are generated by a large-scale flow acting across ocean bottom topography. We generalise the energy flux expressions of [Bell, T., 1975. Topographically generated internal waves in the open ocean. J. Geophys. Res. 80, 320-327] to include the effect of arbitrary viscosity and diffusivity. Applying these results for realistic parameter choices we show that in the present generation of models with O(1) m2s-1 horizontal viscosity/diffusivity boundary-generated waves will inevitably dissipate the majority of their energy within a few hundred metres of the boundary. This dissipation is a direct consequence of the artificially high viscosity/diffusivity, which is not always physically justified in numerical models. Hence, caution is necessary in comparing model results to ocean observations. Our theory further predicts that O(10-2) m2s-1 horizontal and O(10-4) m2s-1 vertical viscosity/diffusivity is required to achieve a qualitatively inviscid representation of internal wave dynamics in ocean models.

Anthropogenic CO2 in the oceans estimated using transit time distributions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Waugh, D.W.; McNeil, B.I.

2006-01-01

The distribution of anthropogenic carbon (Cant) in the oceans is estimated using the transit time distribution (TTD) method applied to global measurements of chlorofluorocarbon-12 (CFC12). Unlike most other inference methods, the TTD method does not assume a single ventilation time and avoids the large uncertainty incurred by attempts to correct for the large natural carbon background in dissolved inorganic carbon measurements. The highest concentrations and deepest penetration of anthropogenic carbon are found in the North Atlantic and Southern Oceans. The estimated total inventory in 1994 is 134 Pg-C. To evaluate uncertainties the TTD method is applied to output from an ocean general circulation model (OGCM) and compared the results to the directly simulated Cant. Outside of the Southern Ocean the predicted Cant closely matches the directly simulated distribution, but in the Southern Ocean the TTD concentrations are biased high due to the assumption of 'constant disequilibrium'. The net result is a TTD overestimate of the global inventory by about 20%. Accounting for this bias and other centred uncertainties, an inventory range of 94-121 Pg-C is obtained. This agrees with the inventory of Sabine et al., who applied the DeltaC* method to the same data. There are, however, significant differences in the spatial distributions: The TTD estimates are smaller than DeltaC* in the upper ocean and larger at depth, consistent with biases expected in DeltaC* given its assumption of a single parcel ventilation time

Climate Prediction Center - Monitoring & Data Index

Science.gov (United States)

Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Prediction Center Site Map News Oceanic & Atmospheric Monitoring and Data Monitoring Weather & Climate in Realtime Climate Diagnostics Bulletin Preliminary Climate Diagnostics Bulletin Figures Monthly Atmospheric & Sea Surface

Ejecta from Ocean Impacts

Science.gov (United States)

Kyte, Frank T.

2003-01-01

Numerical simulations of deep-ocean impact provide some limits on the size of a projectile that will not mix with the ocean floor during a deep-ocean impact. For a vertical impact at asteroidal velocities (approx. 20 km/s), mixing is only likely when the projectile diameter is greater than 112 of the water depth. For oblique impacts, even larger projectiles will not mix with ocean floor silicates. Given the typical water depths of 4 to 5 km in deep-ocean basins, asteroidal projectiles with diameters as large as 2 or 3 km may commonly produce silicate ejecta that is composed only of meteoritic materials and seawater salts. However, the compressed water column beneath the projectile can still disrupt and shock metamorphose the ocean floor. Therefore, production of a separate, terrestrial ejecta component is not ruled out in the most extreme case. With increasing projectile size (or energy) relative to water depths, there must be a gradation between oceanic impacts and more conventional continental impacts. Given that 60% of the Earth's surface is covered by oceanic lithosphere and 500 m projectiles impact the Earth on 10(exp 5) y timescales, there must be hundreds of oceanic impact deposits in the sediment record awaiting discovery.

Dynamic patterns and ecological impacts of declining ocean pH in a high-resolution multi-year dataset.

Science.gov (United States)

Wootton, J Timothy; Pfister, Catherine A; Forester, James D

2008-12-02

Increasing global concentrations of atmospheric CO(2) are predicted to decrease ocean pH, with potentially severe impacts on marine food webs, but empirical data documenting ocean pH over time are limited. In a high-resolution dataset spanning 8 years, pH at a north-temperate coastal site declined with increasing atmospheric CO(2) levels and varied substantially in response to biological processes and physical conditions that fluctuate over multiple time scales. Applying a method to link environmental change to species dynamics via multispecies Markov chain models reveals strong links between in situ benthic species dynamics and variation in ocean pH, with calcareous species generally performing more poorly than noncalcareous species in years with low pH. The models project the long-term consequences of these dynamic changes, which predict substantial shifts in the species dominating the habitat as a consequence of both direct effects of reduced calcification and indirect effects arising from the web of species interactions. Our results indicate that pH decline is proceeding at a more rapid rate than previously predicted in some areas, and that this decline has ecological consequences for near shore benthic ecosystems.

Light penetration structures the deep acoustic scattering layers in the global ocean.

KAUST Repository

Aksnes, Dag L.; Rø stad, Anders; Kaartvedt, Stein; Martinez, Udane; Duarte, Carlos M.; Irigoien, Xabier

2017-01-01

The deep scattering layer (DSL) is a ubiquitous acoustic signature found across all oceans and arguably the dominant feature structuring the pelagic open ocean ecosystem. It is formed by mesopelagic fishes and pelagic invertebrates. The DSL animals are an important food source for marine megafauna and contribute to the biological carbon pump through the active flux of organic carbon transported in their daily vertical migrations. They occupy depths from 200 to 1000 m at daytime and migrate to a varying degree into surface waters at nighttime. Their daytime depth, which determines the migration amplitude, varies across the global ocean in concert with water mass properties, in particular the oxygen regime, but the causal underpinning of these correlations has been unclear. We present evidence that the broad variability in the oceanic DSL daytime depth observed during the Malaspina 2010 Circumnavigation Expedition is governed by variation in light penetration. We find that the DSL depth distribution conforms to a common optical depth layer across the global ocean and that a correlation between dissolved oxygen and light penetration provides a parsimonious explanation for the association of shallow DSL distributions with hypoxic waters. In enhancing understanding of this phenomenon, our results should improve the ability to predict and model the dynamics of one of the largest animal biomass components on earth, with key roles in the oceanic biological carbon pump and food web.

Light penetration structures the deep acoustic scattering layers in the global ocean.

KAUST Repository

Aksnes, Dag L.

2017-05-01

The deep scattering layer (DSL) is a ubiquitous acoustic signature found across all oceans and arguably the dominant feature structuring the pelagic open ocean ecosystem. It is formed by mesopelagic fishes and pelagic invertebrates. The DSL animals are an important food source for marine megafauna and contribute to the biological carbon pump through the active flux of organic carbon transported in their daily vertical migrations. They occupy depths from 200 to 1000 m at daytime and migrate to a varying degree into surface waters at nighttime. Their daytime depth, which determines the migration amplitude, varies across the global ocean in concert with water mass properties, in particular the oxygen regime, but the causal underpinning of these correlations has been unclear. We present evidence that the broad variability in the oceanic DSL daytime depth observed during the Malaspina 2010 Circumnavigation Expedition is governed by variation in light penetration. We find that the DSL depth distribution conforms to a common optical depth layer across the global ocean and that a correlation between dissolved oxygen and light penetration provides a parsimonious explanation for the association of shallow DSL distributions with hypoxic waters. In enhancing understanding of this phenomenon, our results should improve the ability to predict and model the dynamics of one of the largest animal biomass components on earth, with key roles in the oceanic biological carbon pump and food web.

Ocean acidification

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Gattuso, J.P; Hansson, L