WorldWideScience

Sample records for hycom ocean prediction

  1. Ocean U.S. GODAE: Global Ocean Prediction with the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-10-01

    Ocean U.S. GODAE: Global Ocean Prediction with the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) By Eric P. Chassignet1 and Harley E. Hurlburt2 1 COAPS ...UAcademia:U Florida State University/Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies ( COAPS ); University of Miami/Rosenstiel School of Marine and

  2. US GODAE: Global Ocean Prediction with the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-06-01

    coastal application was to assess the impact of open boundary conditions from the HYCOM ocean prediction system on the dynamics and accuracy of a...near the Florida Keys when hurricane Katrina crossed South Florida in late August 2005. iMPact In summary, 25 institutions (nine from academia, nine...example, detailed surface current information derived from HYCOM is summarized by OCENS (Ocean and Coastal ENviromental Sensing, http

  3. Ocean Prediction with the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-01-01

    Smedstad, George R. Hlalliwpll, Patrick J. Hogan, Alan J. Wallcraft, Rainer Bleck 5e. TASK NUMBER 5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER 73-7840-04-5 . •PERFORMING...OCEAN MODEL (HYCOM) Eric P. Chassignet’, Harley E. Hurlburt2, Ole Martin Smedstad 3, George R. Halliwell’, Patrick J. Hogan2, Alan J. Wallcraft2, and...Tellus, 19, 98-106. Large, W.G., G. Danabasoglu, S.C. Doney and J.C. McWilliams , 1997: Sensitivity to surface forcing and boundary layer mixing in a global

  4. The Tsushima Warm Current from a High Resolution Ocean Prediction Model, HYCOM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seongbong Seo

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the characteristic of the Tsushima Warm Current from an assimilated high resolution global ocean prediction model, 1/12o Global HYbrid Coordiate Ocean Model (HYCOM. The model results were verified through a comparison with current measurements obtained by acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP mounted on the passenger ferryboat between Busan, Korea, and Hakata, Japan. The annual mean transport of the Tsushima Warm Current was 2.56 Sverdrup (Sv (1 Sv = 106 m3s−1, which is similar to those from previous studies (Takikawa et al. 1999; Teague et al. 2002. The volume transport time series of the Tsushima Warm Current from HYCOM correlates to a high degree with that from the ADCP observation (the correlation coefficient between the two is 0.82. The spatiotemporal structures of the currents as well as temperature and salinity from HYCOM are comparable to the observed ones.

  5. HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM): Global

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Global HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) and U.S. Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (NCODA) 3-day, daily forecast at approximately 9-km (1/12-degree)...

  6. Ocean Data Impacts in Global HYCOM

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-08-01

    Ocean Data Impacts in Global HYCOM* JAMES A. CUMMINGS Oceanography Division, Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, California OLE MARTIN SMEDSTAD...separated into horizontal and vertical components. Horizontal corre- lation length scales are proportional to the first baro - clinic Rossby radius of...review and amodel with a nonlocal boundary layer parameterization.Rev. Geophys., 32, 363–403, doi:10.1029/ 94RG01872. Lea, D. J., M. J. Martin , and P

  7. Tracer Modeling with the Hybrid Coordinates Ocean Model (hycom)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garraffo, Z. D.; Kim, H.; Li, B.; Mehra, A.; Rivin, I.; Spindler, T.; Tolman, H. L.

    2012-12-01

    A series of tracer simulations have been started at NCEP/NWS aiming to a variety of applications, from dispersion of contaminants in estimations motivated by the Japanese nuclear accident near Fukushima, to nutrient estimations. The tracer capabilities of HYCOM are used, in regional domains, nested to daily nowcast/forecast fields from 1/12 HYCOM (RTOFS-Global) model output. A Fukushima Cs-137 simulation is now run in operational mode (RTOFS_ET). The simulation was initialized at the time of the Fukushima nuclear accident, and includes atmospheric deposition of Cs-137 and coastal discharge from a high resolution coastal model (ROMS done at NOAA/NOS). Almost all tracer moved offshore before the end of the first year after the accident. The tracer initially deposited in the Pacific ocean through the atmosphere slowly moves eastward and to deeper waters following the 3D ocean circulation. A series of simulations were started for nutrient estimations in the Gulf Stream and Mid Atlantic Bight region. Initially the capabilities implemented in HYCOM are used. The work aims to monitoring nutrients in the chosen region. Work is done in collaboration with Victoria Coles of U. Maryland.

  8. Improved Subseasonal Prediction with Advanced Coupled Models including the 30km FIM-HYCOM Coupled Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benjamin, Stan; Sun, Shan; Grell, Georg; Green, Benjamin; Bleck, Rainer; Li, Haiqin

    2017-04-01

    Extreme events for subseasonal duration have been linked to multi-week processes related to onset, duration, and cessation of blocking events or, more generally, quasi-stationary waves. Results will be shown from different sets of 32-day prediction experiments (3200 runs each) over a 16-year period for earth system processes key for subseasonal prediction for different resolution, numerics, and physics using the FIM-HYCOM coupled model. The coupled atmosphere (FIM) and ocean (HYCOM) modeling system is a relatively new coupled atmosphere-ocean model developed for subseasonal to seasonal prediction (Green et al. 2017 Mon.Wea.Rev. accepted, Bleck et al 2015 Mon. Wea. Rev.). Both component models operate on a common icosahedral horizontal grid and use an adaptive hybrid vertical coordinate (sigma-isentropic in FIM and sigma-isopycnic in HYCOM). FIM-HYCOM has been used to conduct 16 years of subseasonal retrospective forecasts following the NOAA Subseasonal (SubX) NMME protocol (32-day forward integrations), run with 4 ensemble members per week. Results from this multi-year FIM-HYCOM hindcast include successful forecasts out to 14-20 days for stratospheric warming events (from archived 10 hPa fields), improved MJO predictability (Green et al. 2017) using the Grell-Freitas (2014, ACP) scale-aware cumulus scheme instead of the Simplified Arakawa-Schubert scheme, and little sensitivity to resolution for blocking frequency. Forecast skill of metrics from FIM-HYCOM including 500 hPa heights and MJO index is at least comparable to that of the operational Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) used by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. Subseasonal skill is improved with a limited multi-model (FIM-HYCOM and CFSv2), consistent with previous seasonal multi-model ensemble results. Ongoing work will also be reported on for adding inline aerosol/chemistry treatment to the coupled FIM-HYCOM model and for advanced approaches to subgrid-scale clouds to address regional biases

  9. Aerosol impact on seasonal prediction using FIM-Chem-iHYCOM coupled model

    Science.gov (United States)

    sun, shan; Grell, Georg; Bleck, Rainer

    2016-04-01

    A coupled model consisting of the weather model FIM and the ocean model iHYCOM, both operating on an icosahedral horizontal grid, is being developed for subseasonal to seasonal prediction. Initial results indicate that the model skill is comparable to that of the operational model CFSv2 used by NCEP. In addition, an online atmospheric chemistry module is coupled to FIM. The purpose of onging experiments with the FIM-Chem-iHYCOM combination is to investigate the aerosol impact on the atmospheric and oceanic circulation at the seasonal scale. We compare the model sensitivity with various chemistry emissions, including aerosols, fire and anthropogenic emissions. Additional emphasis of this work is on the effect of aerosols on cloudiness and precipitation, either directly or indirectly through changes in SST. To isolate the latter effect, we conduct parallel experiments with observed SST.

  10. Validation Test Report for the Global Ocean Prediction System V3.0 - 1/12 Degree HYCOM/NCODA: Phase I

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-11-26

    climatological products. The last available NOGAPS forecast field is then gradually blended toward climatology to provide forcing over the entire...addition, Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSMI) ice concentration observations from NCODA are directly inserted into the model. 8 2.4 The HYCOM...activity are seen in the western boundary current regions, Agulhas Retroflection region, Gulf of Mexico, Brazil-Malvinas region, along the Antarctic

  11. A Comparison of Sequential Assimilation Schemes for Ocean Prediction with the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM): Twin Experiments with Static Forecast Error Covariances

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Numerical Modeling of the Global Atmosphere in the Climate System. Kluwer Academic Press. Bi.mk.irt. J.M.. Testut , C.E.. Brasseur, P., Verron. J...2001JC001198. Itr.ink.irt, J.M., Testut , C.E., Parent, L, 2003b. An integrated system of sequential assimilation modules. sesam3.2 reference manual. MEOM...Fukumori. I.. Kamachi. M.. Martin. M.J., Mogensen, K., Oke. P.. Testut . C.E., Verroa J.. Weaver, A., 2009. Ocean data assimilation systems for GODAE

  12. The HYCOM (HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model) Data Assimilative System

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-06-01

    Harley E. Hurlburt, Ole Martin Smedstad, George R. Halliwell, Patrick J. Hogan, Alan J. Wallcraft, Remy Baraille, Rainer Bleck 5.. TASK NUMBER 5f. WORK...assimilative system Eric P. Chassignet a,*, Harley E. Hurlburt b Ole Martin Smedstad C George R. Halliwell a Patrick J. Hogan b, Alan J. Wallcraft b...coordinate. J. Comput. Phys. Large, W.G., McWilliams , J.C., Doney, S.C., 1994. Oceanic vertical 115, 228-244. mixing: a review and a model with a nonlocal

  13. Upper Ocean Mixing Processes and Circulation in the Arabian Sea during Monsoons using Remote Sensing, Hydrographic Observations and HYCOM Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-30

    1 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Upper Ocean Mixing Processes and Circulation in the...3° degree resolution will be used to study the western boundary currents and circulation pattern in the Arabian Sea National Oceanic and Atmospheric...System 3.0 (HYCOM Version 2.2.19). 3 3.4 SODA Reanalysis The SODA reanalysis is produced from a general ocean circulation model, driven by surface

  14. Argo data assimilation into HYCOM with an EnOI method in the Atlantic Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mignac, D.; Tanajura, C. A. S.; Santana, A. N.; Lima, L. N.; Xie, J.

    2015-02-01

    An ocean data assimilation system to assimilate Argo temperature (T) and salinity (S) profiles into the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) was constructed, implemented and evaluated for the first time in the Atlantic Ocean (78° S to 50° N and 98° W to 20° E). The system is based on the ensemble optimal interpolation (EnOI) algorithm proposed by Xie and Zhu (2010), especially made to deal with the hybrid nature of the HYCOM vertical coordinate system with multiple steps. The Argo T-S profiles were projected to the model vertical space to create pseudo-observed layer thicknesses (Δ pobs), which correspond to the model target densities. The first step was to assimilate Δ pobs considering the sub-state vector composed by the model layer thickness (Δ p) and the baroclinic velocity components. After that, T and S were assimilated separately. Finally, T was diagnosed below the mixed layer to preserve the density of the model isopycnal layers. Five experiments were performed from 1 January 2010 to 31 December 2012: a control run without assimilation, and four assimilation runs considering the different vertical localizations of T, S and Δ p. The assimilation experiments were able to significantly improve the thermohaline structure produced by the control run. They reduced the root mean square deviation (RMSD) of T and S calculated with respect to Argo independent data in 34 and 44%, respectively, in comparison to the control run. In some regions, such as the western North Atlantic, substantial corrections in the 20 °C isotherm depth and the upper ocean heat content towards climatological states were achieved. The runs with a vertical localization of Δ p showed positive impacts in the correction of the thermohaline structure and reduced the RMSD of T (S) from 0.993 °C (0.149 psu) to 0.905 °C (0.138 psu) for the whole domain with respect to the other assimilation runs.

  15. Towards the Use of HYCOM in Coupled ENSO Prediction: Assessment of ENSO Skill in Forced Global HYCOM

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-09-30

    atmosphere variability in the tropical Pacific, through El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is a major contributor to fluctuations in North American and...between the occurrence of westerly wind events in the western Pacific and the equatorial warming that triggers the Bjerknes feedback has been a major...how well HYCOM depicts the diversity of ENSO events over an extended period. A recent study has shown that most of the El Niño events in the 21st

  16. Seasonal variability of salinity budget and water exchange in the northern Indian Ocean from HYCOM assimilation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Yuhong; DU Yan

    2012-01-01

    Based on HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) assimilation and observations,we analyzed seasonal variability of the salinity budget in the southeastern Arabian Sea (AS) and the southern part of the Bay of Bengal (BOB),as well as water exchange between the two basins.Results show that fresh water flux cannot explain salinity changes in salinity budget of both regions.Oceanic advection decreases salinity in the southeastern AS during the winter monsoon season and increases salinity in the southern BOB during the summer monsoon season.In winter,the Northeast Monsoon Current (NMC) carries fresher water from the BOB westward into the southern AS; this westward advection is confined to 4°-6°N and the upper 180 m south of the Indian peninsula.Part of the less saline water then turns northward,decreasing salinity in the southeastern AS.In summer,the Southwest Monsoon Current (SMC) advects high-salinity water from the AS eastward into the BOB,increasing salinity along its path.This eastward advection of high-salinity water south of the India Peninsula extends southward to 2°N,and the layer becomes shallower than in winter.In addition to the monsoon current,the salinity difference between the two basins is important for salinity advection.

  17. Northern Indian Ocean Salt Transport (NIOST): Estimation of Fresh and Salt Water Transports in the Indian Ocean using Remote Sensing, Hydrographic Observations and HYCOM Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-09-30

    adjustment in the thermocline brings with it salty waters from below and allows for the entrainment of higher salinity values into the upper 50 m of...This layer of salty water likely originates in the AS. Vinayachandran et al., (2013) showed that salty AS water transported into the BoB tends to sink...Estimation of Fresh and Salt Water Transports in the Indian Ocean using Remote Sensing, Hydrographic Observations and HYCOM Simulations PI: Dr

  18. Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) Version 2.1. User’s Guide

    Science.gov (United States)

    2003-01-01

    path. The path and possibly the machinetype definition may need modifying for the user’s particular setup. The Gnuplot plot package is also used by...resulting plain text barotropic velocity profiles can be plotted by many graphics packages, including gnuplot . 18.1.2 TRANSPORT The program TRANSPORT is...and possibly the machinetype definition may need modifing for your particular setup. The gnuplot plot package is also used by hycom sigma and its

  19. Final Report for DOE Grant DE-FG02-07ER64470 [“Incorporation of the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) into the Community Climate System Model (CCSM): Evaluation and Climate Applications”

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chassignet, Eric P

    2013-03-18

    The primary goal of the project entitled “Incorporation of the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) into the Community Climate System Model (CCSM): Evaluation and Climate Applications” was to systematically investigate the performance of the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) as an alternative oceanic component of the NCAR’s Community Climate System Model (CCSM). We have configured two versions of the fully coupled CCSM3/HYCOM: one with a medium resolution (T42) Community Atmospheric Model (CAM) and the other with higher resolution (T85). We have performed a comprehensive analysis of the 400-year fully coupled CCSM3/HYCOM simulations and compared the results with those from CCSM3/POP and with climatological observations, and also we have performed tuning of critical model parameters, including Smagorinsky viscosity, isopycnal diffusivity, and background vertical diffusivity. The analysis shows that most oceanic features are well represented in the CCSM3/HYCOM. The coupled CCSM3/HYCOM (T42) has been integrated for 400 years, and the results have been archived and transferred to the High Performance Computer in the Florida State Univesity. In the last year, we have made comprehensive diagnostics of the long-term simulations by the comparison with the original CCSM3/POP simulation and with the observations. To gain some understanding of the model biases, the mean climate and modes of climate variability of the two models are compared with observations. The examination includes the Northern and Southern Annular Modes (NAM and SAM), the Pacific-North-American (PNA) pattern, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and the main Southern Ocean SST mode. We also compared the performance of ENSO simulation in the coupled models. This report summarizes the main findings from the comparison of long-term CCSM3/HYCOM and CCSM3/POP simulations.

  20. HYCOM Initial and Boundary Conditions for Coupled COAMPS/NCOM

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-06-07

    conditions (BCs and ICs) into globally- relocatable coupled COAMPS/NCOM, (2) quantitatively evaluate HYCOM sources of ICs and BCs against other...HYCOM Initial and Boundary Conditions for Coupled COAMPS/NCOM Julie Pullen Naval Research Laboratory 7 Grace Hopper Ave. Stop 2 Monterey, CA...long-term goal of this effort is to evaluate HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) initial and boundary conditions supplied to the air-ocean coupled

  1. U.S. GODAE: Global Ocean Prediction with the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-06-07

    assimilation of sea surface height ( SSH ) from satellite altimeters, sea surface temperature (SST) and temperature (T)/salinity (S) profiles and the...and H.-S. Kang (U. Miami). 3DVAR is a planned upgrade to NCODA, which also includes advanced data QC. The primary data types are SSH from satellite...for downward projection of SSH and SST. 3. Ocean model and prediction system configurations: The primary model domain is a fully global HYCOM

  2. Comparison of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation behaviors in HYCOM and POP within the CESM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bozec, A.; Chassignet, E. P.

    2016-02-01

    For the Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiment (CORE), the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) had been implemented in, what was then, the Community Climate System Model (CCSM3). While the results were reasonable when using the CORE-I climatology as an atmospheric forcing, they showed an almost collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) when using the CORE-II interannual atmospheric forcing. To understand that behavior, extensive tests were performed using a HYCOM-CICE stand-alone configuration and a more suitable set of parameters was found to improve the AMOC strength. As part of the Earth System Prediction Capability (ESPC), the newest version of HYCOM has been (re-)introduced as an alternative ocean component to POP2 in the latest version of the Community Earth System Model (CESM). The response of HYCOM and POP identically configured (bathymetry, grid and CORE-I forcing) is described in 500-year simulations. Special attention is given to the AMOC strength and variability.

  3. The 1/12 degree Global HYCOM Nowcast/Forecast System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smedstad, O. M.; Cummings, J. A.; Metzger, E. J.; Hurlburt, H. E.; Wallcraft, A. J.; Franklin, D. S.; Shriver, J. F.; Thoppil, P. G.

    2010-05-01

    The 1/12 degree global HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) has been running daily since 22 December 2006. With ~7 km mid-latitude resolution (3-4 km near the poles), the system depicts the location of mesoscale features such as oceanic eddies and fronts and provides the three dimensional ocean temperature, salinity and current structure. An efficient assimilation scheme is necessary in order to run within the time constraints of an operational center. The Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (NCODA) system is used to assimilate available observations. An important component of the NCODA system is the quality control of the observations. NCODA uses a multivariate optimal interpolation scheme (MVOI) that assimilates surface observations from satellite altimeter tracks and available SST data. A 3 dimensional variational analysis scheme is in the process of being implemented as a replacement for MVOI. NCODA also assimilates in situ observations, including profile data from BT's and Argo floats. The daily run consists of a 5-day hindcast with an NCODA analysis each day and then a 5-day forecast. Over the last couple of years a series of validation tasks have been performed to evaluate the HYCOM/NCODA system. Independent observations are used whenever possible in the evaluation of assimilation system performance. A subset of these evaluations will be presented. The prediction system provides boundary conditions for higher resolution nested models. An accurate representation of the oceanographic fields at the open boundaries of a model is important for a successful ocean prediction system. Results from the global system can be viewed on the HYCOM web page http://www.hycom.org. The hindcast and the real time model output can also be accessed through this web page.

  4. Toward a Global 1/25degree HYCOM Ocean Prediction System with Tides

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ice. Within the AOMIP, COAPS will participate in coordinated AOMIP experiments and provide model results for community model intercomparisons and...bathymetry of the ARCc0.72. Left: model domain in experiment 040 ( COAPS ) bathymetry: open Bering Strait, shallow coastline (10 m) resulting in a

  5. Seasonal Variability of Salt Transport During the Indian Ocean Monsoons

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-08-27

    PJCDW was computed from the Florida State University’s (FSU) Center for Ocean-Atmosphere Prediction Studies ( COAPS ) 1° x 1° gridded pseudostress...Ekman transports using COAPS winds data. The annual mean meridional Ekman volume transport from HYCOM was computed following similar methods of

  6. Nesting the Gulf of Mexico in Atlantic HYCOM: Oceanographic Processes Generated by Hurricane Ivan

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-01-01

    of the National Data Sea using HYCOM. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 35, 33-54. Buoy Center. This paper is NRL contribution number Large, W.G., McWilliams , J.C...Doney, S.C., 1994. Oceanic vertical NRL/JA/7320-07-7185. Thanks are extended to Dr. Alan mixing: a review and a model with a nonlocal boundary layer

  7. Performance Evaluation of HYCOM-GOM for Hydrokinetic Resource Assessment in the Florida Strait

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Neary, Vincent S [ORNL; Gunawan, Budi [ORNL; Ryou, Albert S [ORNL

    2012-06-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DoE) is assessing and mapping the potential off-shore ocean current hydrokinetic energy resources along the U.S. coastline, excluding tidal currents, to facilitate market penetration of water power technologies. This resource assessment includes information on the temporal and three-dimensional spatial distribution of the daily averaged power density, and the overall theoretical hydrokinetic energy production, based on modeled historical simulations spanning a 7-year period of record using HYCOM-GOM, an ocean current observation assimilation model that generates a spatially distributed three-dimensional representation of daily averaged horizontal current magnitude and direction time series from which power density time series and their statistics can be derived. This study ascertains the deviation of HYCOM-GOM outputs, including transport (flow) and power density, from outputs based on three independent observation sources to evaluate HYCOM-GOM performance. The three independent data sources include NOAA s submarine cable data of transport, ADCP data at a high power density location, and HF radar data in the high power density region of the Florida Strait. Comparisons with these three independent observation sets indicate discrepancies with HYCOM model outputs, but overall indicate that the HYCOM-GOM model can provide an adequate assessment of the ocean current hydrokinetic resource in high power density regions like the Florida Strait. Additional independent observational data, in particular stationary ADCP measurements, would be useful for expanding this model performance evaluation study. ADCP measurements are rare in ocean environments not influenced by tides, and limited to one location in the Florida Strait. HF radar data, although providing great spatial coverage, is limited to surface currents only.

  8. Regional Model Studies Nested in HYCOM. Application to the West Florida Shelf and the Cariaco Basin using ROMS

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-09-30

    Marchesiello, P. (1995). Thermal forcing for global ocean circulation model using a 3-year climatology of ECMWF analyses. Journal of Marine Systems 6...R. (2007). The HYCOM (Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model) Data Assimilative System. Journal of Marine Systems 65 (1-4), 60–83. Ducet, N., Le Traon, P

  9. Eddy Resolving Global Ocean Prediction including Tides

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-30

    collaborate with a core team of similar size at FSU COAPS , with other parties interested in HYCOM development, and ONR field programs to test and...are two related ONR funded projects, one at FSU COAPS under Eric Chassignet and the other at U. Michigan under Brian Arbic. Partnering projects at NRL

  10. Quantifying Uncertainties in Ocean Predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-03-01

    Journal of Marine Systems 40:171–212. Bishop, C.H., B.J. Etherton, and S.J. Majumdar. 2001. Adaptive...80. Dickey, T. 2003. Emerging ocean observations for in- terdisciplinary data assimilation systems. Journal of Marine Systems 40–41:5–48 Egbert, G.D...subspace of the three-dimensional multiscale ocean variability: Mas- sachusetts Bay. Journal of Marine Systems 29(1-4; special issue):385–422.

  11. HYCOM High-resolution Eddying Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-07-01

    number of vertical profiles of temperature and salinity in place of XBT temperature profiles. The reanalysis was completed in February 2014. As noted...10.1016/j.ocemod.2011.02.011. Metzger, E. J., and Coauthors, 2014a: US Navy operational global ocean and Arctic ice prediction systems. Oceanography...has collaborated on developing and demonstrating the performance and application of eddy-resolving, real-time global and basin-scale ocean prediction

  12. Application of Argo-derived background diapycnal mixing in HYCOM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Zengan; Yu, Ting

    2014-09-01

    Internal wave-induced background diapycnal mixing (DM) in the upper 2000 m of the global ocean, which primarily depends on the local inertial frequency, is calculated based on Argo observations using the newly published Thermodynamic Equation of Seawater-2010 (IOC, SCOR and IAPSO, 2010). This spatially dependent background DM agrees well with previous theoretical and observational mixing estimates. More importantly, the DM data are gridded, which renders the data suitable for modeling applications. The implementation of these data in the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) demonstrates the potential for their application in numerical ocean models. Three numerical experiments that are specifically designed with different DM settings reveal that the meridional overturning circulation (MOC), temperature and salinity in the Atlantic change substantially when the constant background DM is replaced with Argo-derived mixing. Tropical and high-latitude regions that are considered important for global climate are identified as the areas that are most sensitive to the magnitude of the background DM. Compared with constant background DM, the enhanced mid-latitude DM most likely contributes substantially to the MOC transport. Thus, although room remains for improvement, the spatially varying DM derived in the present study may facilitate global circulation and climate modeling.

  13. Understanding Predictability of the Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-09-30

    We developed a coupled biological model that helped show that the mixing effects helped to sequester the bacteria away from the UV light that killed...Tide and Nonlinear Internal Wave Behaviour at the Continental Slope in the Northern South China Sea. J. Ocean. Eng., 29(4): 1105–1130, October 2004

  14. Adaptive nonlinear prediction of ocean reverberation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    GAN Weiming; LI Fenghua

    2009-01-01

    An adaptive nonlinear prediction algorithm is proposed to predict ocean reverber-ation based on the phase space reconstruction of nonlinear dynamic system. The prediction algorithm is tested by experimental reverberation data measured in two areas, and the one-step forward prediction results are in good agreement with the experimental data. If the errors between the predicted and experimental data are chosen as the variable to detect the target in the reverberation series, the reverberation is suppressed and the signal-to-reverberation ratio is improved.

  15. Predictability Horizon of Oceanic Rogue Waves

    CERN Document Server

    Alam, Reza

    2014-01-01

    Prediction is a central goal and a yet-unresolved challenge in the investigation of oceanic rogue waves. Here we define a horizon of predictability for oceanic rogue waves and derive, via extensive computational experiments, the first statistically-converged predictability time-scale for these structures. We show that this time-scale is a function of the sea state as well as the strength (i.e. overall height) of the expected rogue wave. The presented predictability time-scale establishes a quantitative metric on the combined temporal effect of the variety of mechanisms that together lead to the formation of a rogue wave, and is crucial for the assessment of validity of rogue waves predictions, as well as for the critical evaluation of results from the widely-used model equations. The methodology and presented results can have similar implications in other systems admitting rogue waves, e.g. nonlinear optics and plasma physics.

  16. Sea Ice Sensitivities in the 0.72 deg and 0.08 deg Arctic Cap Coupled HYCOM/CICE Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-09-30

    the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) and the Los Alamos National Laboratory ( LANL ) CICE model. OBJECTIVES The objectives of this project... Documentation Page Form ApprovedOMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for the collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response

  17. Enhanced Ocean Predictability Through Optimal Observing Strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-06-14

    Enhanced Ocean Predictability Through Optimal Observing Strategies A. D. Kirwan, Jr. College of Marine Studies University of Delaware Robinson Hall...observation strategies that will maximize the capacity to predict mesoscale and submesoscale conditions so as to provide the best possible nowcasts and...systems approaches on developing optimal observing strategies . The common thread linking both approaches is Lagrangian data, so this phase of the work

  18. Accelerated Prediction of the Polar Ice and Global Ocean (APPIGO)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-09-30

    projects/espc-appigo/ Other investigators: Phil Jones (co-PI) Los Alamos National Laboratory ( LANL ) Rob Aulwes Los Alamos National Laboratory... Documentation Page Form ApprovedOMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for the collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response...these new systems. HYCOM Performance (Alan Wallcraft, NRL-SSC; Louis Vernon, LANL ) During the first year, some initial refactoring of HYCOM at

  19. Evaluating two numerical advection schemes in HYCOM for eddy-resolving modelling of the Agulhas Current

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. C. Backeberg

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available A 4th order advection scheme is applied in a nested eddy-resolving Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM of the greater Agulhas Current system for the purpose of testing advanced numerics as a means for improving the model simulation for eventual operational implementation. Model validation techniques comparing sea surface height variations, sea level skewness and variogram analyses to satellite altimetry measurements quantify that generally the 4th order advection scheme improves the realism of the model simulation. The most striking improvement over the standard 2nd order momentum advection scheme, is that the Southern Agulhas Current is simulated as a well-defined meandering current, rather than a train of successive eddies. A better vertical structure and stronger poleward transports in the Agulhas Current core contribute toward a better southwestward penetration of the current, and its temperature field, implying a stronger Indo-Atlantic inter-ocean exchange. It is found that the transport, and hence this exchange, is sensitive to the occurrences of mesoscale features originating upstream in the Mozambique Channel and Southern East Madagascar Current, and that the improved HYCOM simulation is well suited for further studies of these inter-actions.

  20. US Navy Operational Global Ocean and Arctic Ice Prediction Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-09-01

    Oceanography Society. All rights reserved. USAGE Permission is granted to copy this article for use in teaching and research. Republication... thermodynamic “energy-loan” ice model within HYCOM is a component of the global system discussed here. It allows ice to grow/melt in response to changes in

  1. Sea Ice Sensitivities in the 0.72 degrees and 0.08 degrees Arctic Cap Coupled HYCOM/CICE Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-30

    Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) and the Los Alamos National Laboratory ( LANL ) CICE model. OBJECTIVES The objectives of the project are to optimize...together with NRL implement and test new versions of CICE in these coupled model set-ups as they become available from the LANL developers. APPROACH...fields will be compared with independent ice Report Documentation Page Form ApprovedOMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for the collection of

  2. Navy Global Predictions for the Dynamo Time Period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reynolds, C. A.; Ridout, J. A.; Flatau, M. K.; Chen, J.; Richman, J. G.; Jensen, T. G.; Shriver, J. F.

    2014-12-01

    The performance of 30-day simulations of the Navy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM) is evaluated under several metrics. The time period of interest is the DYNAMO (Dynamics of Madden Julian Oscillation) field experiment period, starting late October 2011. The NAVGEM experiments are run at an effective 37-km resolution with several different SST configurations. The in the first set of experiments, the initial SST analysis, provided by the NCODA (Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation) system, is either held fixed to the initial value (fixed SST) or updated every 6 hours. These forecasts are compared with forecasts in which the SST is updated with 3-h analyses from the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM), and forecasts in which NAVGEM is interactively coupled to HYCOM. Experiments are also performed with different physical parameterization options. The extended integrations are verified using observed OLR, TRMM precipitation estimates, and global analyses. The use of fixed SSTs is clearly sub-optimal. Biases in monthly mean fields are far more pronounced in the simulations where the SST is held fixed as compared to those in simulations where updated SST analyses are used. Biases in the monthly mean fields are further reduced when NAVGEM is coupled to HYCOM. Differences in SST can "migrate" to substantial changes in the time-mean land-surface temperatures, illustrating the substantial impact of SSTs over the full domain. Concerning the simulation of the MJO, some improvement is noted when the system is fully coupled, although the simulations still exhibit deficiencies such as eastward propagation that is too slow, and difficulty propagating over the maritime continent. Simulations that are started every 5 days indicate that the NAVGEM uncoupled system has difficulty predicting MJO initiation, but simulations started when the MJO is active in the Indian Ocean are able to capture eastward propagation characteristics. The coupled NAVGEM-HYCOM system shows ability to

  3. Ocean Observing Public-Private Collaboration to Improve Tropical Storm and Hurricane Predictions in the Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, R.; Leung, P.; McCall, W.; Martin, K. M.; Howden, S. D.; Vandermeulen, R. A.; Kim, H. S. S.; Kirkpatrick, B. A.; Watson, S.; Smith, W.

    2016-02-01

    In 2008, Shell partnered with NOAA to explore opportunities for improving storm predictions in the Gulf of Mexico. Since, the collaboration has grown to include partners from Shell, NOAA National Data Buoy Center and National Center for Environmental Information, National Center for Environmental Prediction, University of Southern Mississippi, and the Gulf of Mexico Coastal Ocean Observing System. The partnership leverages complementary strengths of each collaborator to build a comprehensive and sustainable monitoring and data program to expand observing capacity and protect offshore assets and Gulf communities from storms and hurricanes. The program combines in situ and autonomous platforms with remote sensing and numerical modeling. Here we focus on profiling gliders and the benefits of a public-private partnership model for expanding regional ocean observing capacity. Shallow and deep gliders measure ocean temperature to derive ocean heat content (OHC), along with salinity, dissolved oxygen, fluorescence, and CDOM, in the central and eastern Gulf shelf and offshore. Since 2012, gliders have collected 4500+ vertical profiles and surveyed 5000+ nautical miles. Adaptive sampling and mission coordination with NCEP modelers provides specific datasets to assimilate into EMC's coupled HYCOM-HWRF model and 'connect-the-dots' between well-established Eulerian metocean measurements by obtaining (and validating) data between fixed stations (e.g. platform and buoy ADCPs) . Adaptive sampling combined with remote sensing provides satellite-derived OHC validation and the ability to sample productive coastal waters advected offshore by the Loop Current. Tracking coastal waters with remote sensing provides another verification of estimate Loop Current and eddy boundaries, as well as quantifying productivity and analyzing water quality on the Gulf coast, shelf break and offshore. Incorporating gliders demonstrates their value as tools to better protect offshore oil and gas assets

  4. Eddy Resolving Global Ocean Prediction including Tides

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-09-30

    Trasviña-Castro, A., Gaxiola-Castro, G., Zamudio, L., and R. Cervantes- Duarte , 2012: Net primary productivity, upwelling and coastal currents in...the Gulf of Ulloa, Baja California , Mexico, Ocean Sci., 8, 703–711, 2012, www.ocean-sci.net/8/703/2012/, doi:10.5194/os-8-703-2012. [published

  5. HYCOM Consortium for Data-Assimilation Ocean Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-09-30

    for data assimilation in oceanography. Journal of Marine Systems , 16, 323-340. Wang, Y.M., 2000: The satellite altimeter data derived mean sea surface GSFC98, Geophysical Research Letters, 27, 701-704. 6

  6. Impact of Atmospheric Forcing on the Ocean Prediction under Typhoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ko, D. S.; Wu, C.

    2012-12-01

    The impact of atmospheric forcing on the ocean prediction under Typhoon Fanapi and Typhoon Megi (2010) is investigated applying an ocean nowcast/forecast system (EASNFS) that covers the northwestern Pacific Ocean and the East Asian marginal seas. The model resolution is ~ 8 km at the study area. There are 40 vertical layers with dense upper layers to better resolve upper ocean variations. Ocean model assimilates the altimetry data to produce important subsurface oceanic mesoscale features for the impact study. The atmospheric forcing is provided by an atmospheric model on a triple (54/18/6 km) nested grid that moves with typhoon. The 10-m wind and sea level air pressure are applied to drive ocean model. The wind and air pressure are interpolated onto the ocean model grid and meshed with prediction from NOGAPS (Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System) to account for the area that the triple nested grid does not cover. The simulation is conducted for the time period from September 1 to October 1, 2010 for the duration of Typhoon Fanapi and from October 1 to November 1, 2010 for Megi. To compare, a parallel simulation driven by NOGAPS forcing alone for the same periods is also conducted. The impact of atmospheric forcing is examined by comparison of ocean model predictions with remote sensing and in-situ data taken during ITOP 2010 Intensive Observation Period.

  7. An example of defense service using HYCOM output of the bay of Biscay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maraldi, Claire; Corréard, Stéphanie; Louazel, Stéphanie; Faillot, Mathilde; Jourdan, Didier

    2013-04-01

    With the continuous improvement of both ocean physics description by numerical models and operational information systems in oceanography to process and analyze coastal observations and forecasts, it becomes now feasible to support defense applications with appropriate production and service at regional scale. On one hand, a real time system based on the HYCOM model has been set up in the bay of Biscay. This system, without assimilation, is run daily. The purpose is to well describe all the processes which occur in this area : the large scale and the mesoscale circulation (eddies, thermal fronts,...), the tidal circulation (the well-known homogeneous one but also the stratified case), the mixing processes... The system provides everyday forecasts of temperature, salinity, currents and sea surface height. Moreover, the system includes a validation component. This validation is automatically performed everyday. In term of temperature and salinity, the model is compared with in-situ profiles, the modeled sea surface height is compared with tide gauge data and the modeled currents are compared with HF radar data in the Iroise sea. On the other hand, SHOM has developped a System for Operational Analysis and Forecast (SOAP) to support French Navy activities. Primarily designed and developed to support anti-submarine warfare at operative level (description of the synoptic scale), the Soap System is dedicated to routinely compute, qualify, prepare and deliver added-value military products. The final version of the Soap System (Soap-3) entered service early 2010 and has become the core component of the oceanographic support for naval operations. It relies on various functionalities ranging from observations and/or model retrieval to the processing and layout of the products. In this talk, we propose to present the real time HYCOM system and we will show how its outputs can be used as inputs of SOAP. Examples of defense products provided in the framework of the the SPONTEX

  8. Value of Bulk Heat Flux Parameterizations for Ocean SST Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-03-01

    Value of bulk heat flux parameterizations for ocean SST prediction Alan J. Wallcraft a,⁎, A. Birol Kara a, Harley E. Hurlburt a, Eric P. Chassignet b...G., Doney, S.C., McWilliams , J.C., 1997. Sensitivity to surface forcing and boundary layer mixing in a global ocean model: annual-mean climatology. J

  9. Decadal climate predictions improved by ocean ensemble dispersion filtering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kadow, C.; Illing, S.; Kröner, I.; Ulbrich, U.; Cubasch, U.

    2017-06-01

    Decadal predictions by Earth system models aim to capture the state and phase of the climate several years in advance. Atmosphere-ocean interaction plays an important role for such climate forecasts. While short-term weather forecasts represent an initial value problem and long-term climate projections represent a boundary condition problem, the decadal climate prediction falls in-between these two time scales. In recent years, more precise initialization techniques of coupled Earth system models and increased ensemble sizes have improved decadal predictions. However, climate models in general start losing the initialized signal and its predictive skill from one forecast year to the next. Here we show that the climate prediction skill of an Earth system model can be improved by a shift of the ocean state toward the ensemble mean of its individual members at seasonal intervals. We found that this procedure, called ensemble dispersion filter, results in more accurate results than the standard decadal prediction. Global mean and regional temperature, precipitation, and winter cyclone predictions show an increased skill up to 5 years ahead. Furthermore, the novel technique outperforms predictions with larger ensembles and higher resolution. Our results demonstrate how decadal climate predictions benefit from ocean ensemble dispersion filtering toward the ensemble mean.type="synopsis">type="main">Plain Language SummaryDecadal predictions aim to predict the climate several years in advance. Atmosphere-ocean interaction plays an important role for such climate forecasts. The ocean memory due to its heat capacity holds big potential skill. In recent years, more precise initialization techniques of coupled Earth system models (incl. atmosphere and ocean) have improved decadal predictions. Ensembles are another important aspect. Applying slightly perturbed predictions to trigger the famous butterfly effect results in an ensemble. Instead of evaluating one prediction, but the

  10. Tuning and assessment of the HYCOM-NORWECOM V2.1 modeling system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Samuelsen

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available The HYCOM-NORWECOM modeling system is used both for basic research and as a part of the forecasting system for the Arctic Marine Forecasting Centre through the MyOcean project. Here we present a revised version of this model. The present model, as well as the sensitivity simulations leading up to this version, has been compared to a dataset of in-situ measurements of nutrient and chlorophyll from the Norwegian Sea and the Atlantic sector of the Arctic Ocean. The revisions having most impact included adding diatoms to the diet of micro-zooplankton, increasing micro-zooplankton grazing rate and decreased silicate-to-nitrate ratio in diatoms. Model runs are performed both with a coarse- (~50 km and higher-resolution (~15 km model configuration, both covering the North Atlantic and Arctic Ocean. While the new model formulation improves the results in both the coarse- and high-resolution model, the nutrient bias is smaller in the high-resolution model, probably as a result of the better resolution of the main processes and with that improved circulation. The final revised version delivers satisfactory results for all three nutrients as well as improved result for chlorophyll in terms of the annual cycle amplitude. However, for chlorophyll the correlation with in-situ data remains relatively low. Besides the large uncertainties associated with observational data this is possibly caused by the fact that constant C / N and Chl / N ratios are implemented in the model.

  11. Tuning and assessment of the HYCOM-NORWECOM V2.1 modeling system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samuelsen, A.; Hansen, C.; Wehde, H.

    2014-11-01

    The HYCOM-NORWECOM modeling system is used both for basic research and as a part of the forecasting system for the Arctic Marine Forecasting Centre through the MyOcean project. Here we present a revised version of this model. The present model, as well as the sensitivity simulations leading up to this version, has been compared to a dataset of in-situ measurements of nutrient and chlorophyll from the Norwegian Sea and the Atlantic sector of the Arctic Ocean. The revisions having most impact included adding diatoms to the diet of micro-zooplankton, increasing micro-zooplankton grazing rate and decreased silicate-to-nitrate ratio in diatoms. Model runs are performed both with a coarse- (~50 km) and higher-resolution (~15 km) model configuration, both covering the North Atlantic and Arctic Ocean. While the new model formulation improves the results in both the coarse- and high-resolution model, the nutrient bias is smaller in the high-resolution model, probably as a result of the better resolution of the main processes and with that improved circulation. The final revised version delivers satisfactory results for all three nutrients as well as improved result for chlorophyll in terms of the annual cycle amplitude. However, for chlorophyll the correlation with in-situ data remains relatively low. Besides the large uncertainties associated with observational data this is possibly caused by the fact that constant C / N and Chl / N ratios are implemented in the model.

  12. The Impact of Ocean Observations in Seasonal Climate Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rienecker, Michele; Keppenne, Christian; Kovach, Robin; Marshak, Jelena

    2010-01-01

    The ocean provides the most significant memory for the climate system. Hence, a critical element in climate forecasting with coupled models is the initialization of the ocean with states from an ocean data assimilation system. Remotely-sensed ocean surface fields (e.g., sea surface topography, SST, winds) are now available for extensive periods and have been used to constrain ocean models to provide a record of climate variations. Since the ocean is virtually opaque to electromagnetic radiation, the assimilation of these satellite data is essential to extracting the maximum information content. More recently, the Argo drifters have provided unprecedented sampling of the subsurface temperature and salinity. Although the duration of this observation set has been too short to provide solid statistical evidence of its impact, there are indications that Argo improves the forecast skill of coupled systems. This presentation will address the impact these different observations have had on seasonal climate predictions with the GMAO's coupled model.

  13. Basin-Scale Ocean Prediction System

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-06-07

    primitive equation ocean model in existence in terms of computer time per model year. Altimetric sea surface height ( SSH ) will be assimilated using a...unassimilated BTs (both dynamic height and synthetic T/S profiles), tide guage sea level time series, and drifter data. Mean SSH from the model was compared...with mean surface dynamic height from the MODAS hydrographic climatology (4 cm rms agreement). Synoptic model SSH fields were also compared with MODAS

  14. The Coastal Ocean Prediction Systems program: Understanding and managing our coastal ocean. Volume 1: Strategic summary

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1990-05-15

    The proposed COPS (Coastal Ocean Prediction Systems) program is concerned with combining numerical models with observations (through data assimilation) to improve our predictive knowledge of the coastal ocean. It is oriented toward applied research and development and depends upon the continued pursuit of basic research in programs like COOP (Coastal Ocean Processes); i.e., to a significant degree it is involved with ``technology transfer`` from basic knowledge to operational and management applications. This predictive knowledge is intended to address a variety of societal problems: (1) ship routing, (2) trajectories for search and rescue operations, (3) oil spill trajectory simulations, (4) pollution assessments, (5) fisheries management guidance, (6) simulation of the coastal ocean`s response to climate variability, (7) calculation of sediment transport, (8) calculation of forces on structures, and so forth. The initial concern is with physical models and observations in order to provide a capability for the estimation of physical forces and transports in the coastal ocean. For all these applications, there are common needs for physical field estimates: waves, tides, currents, temperature, and salinity, including mixed layers, thermoclines, fronts, jets, etc. However, the intent is to work with biologists, chemists, and geologists in developing integrated multidisciplinary prediction systems as it becomes feasible to do so. From another perspective, by combining observations with models through data assimilation, a modern approach to monitoring is provided through whole-field estimation.

  15. Global Bathymetric Prediction For Ocean Modeling and Marine Geophysics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandwell, David T.; Smith, Walter H. F.; Sichoix, Lydie; Frey, Herbert V. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    We proposed to construct a complete bathymetric map of the oceans at a 3-10 km resolution by combining all of the available depth soundings collected over the past 30 years with high resolution marine gravity information provided by the Geosat, ERS-1/2, and Topex/Poseidon altimeters. Detailed bathymetry is essential for understanding physical oceanography and marine geophysics. Currents and tides are controlled by the overall shapes of the ocean basins as well as the smaller sharp ocean ridges and seamounts. Because erosion rates are low in the deep oceans, detailed bathymetry reveals the mantle convection patterns, the plate boundaries, the cooling/subsidence of the oceanic lithosphere, the oceanic plateaus, and the distribution of off-ridge volcanoes. We proposed to: (1) Accumulate all available depth soundings collected over the past 30 years; (2) Use the short wavelength (< 160 km) satellite gravity information to interpolate between sparse ship soundings; (3) Improve the resolution of the marine gravity field using enhanced estimates along repeat altimeter profiles together with the dense altimeter measurements; (4) Refine/improve bathymetric predictions using the improved resolution gravity field and also by investigating computer-intensive methods for bathymetric prediction such as inverse theory; and (5) Produce a 'Globe of the Earth' similar to the globe of Venus prepared by the NASA Magellan investigation. This will also include the best available digital land data.

  16. Seasonal predictions using a simple ocean initialization scheme

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Jieshun; Kumar, Arun; Lee, Hyun-Chul; Wang, Hui

    2017-02-01

    In this study, a simple ocean data assimilation scheme was applied to initialize a set of seasonal hindcasts, which started from each January, April, July and October during 1982-2010 with six ensemble members. In the scheme, sea surface temperature (SST) was the only observed information used to estimate the ocean initial states. Predictions of SST, 2-m temperature (T2m) and precipitation (Prate) over land were assessed and compared with hindcasts from the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) project which were all based on sophisticated ocean initialization schemes with subsurface observations assimilated. The skill comparison indicated that, for all variables evaluated, the prediction skill by the simple ocean initialization procedure was well within the range of skills from individual NMME models. The result suggests that even though sophisticated initialization schemes have the potential to best capture the seasonal climate predictability, most present-day capabilities of seasonal predictions can also be accomplished by utilizing SST only. Further, significant seasonal dependence of prediction skill was also identified in hindcasts by the simple initialization scheme. Specifically, the ENSO SST predictions were featured by the significant "spring barrier" problem. It is argued that the ENSO prediction skill seasonality could be due to "double dip" contribution from the seasonality of climatic feedbacks in the tropical Pacific. In particular, these feedbacks not only play a role during the forecast leading to the largest errors in spring, but also cause the largest errors in the SST-derived ocean initial conditions in spring. Complementary aspects of seasonal forecasts based on simple initialization scheme, and use of low-resolution models are also discussed.

  17. Nonlinear Dependence of Global Warming Prediction on Ocean State

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, M.; Lin, L.; Tung, K. K.; Yung, Y. L.; Sun, S.

    2010-12-01

    Global temperature has increased by 0.8 C since the pre-industrial era, and is likely to increase further if greenhouse gas emission continues unchecked. Various mitigation efforts are being negotiated among nations to keep the increase under 2 C, beyond which the outcome is believed to be catastrophic. Such policy efforts are currently based on predictions by the state-of-the-art coupled atmosphere ocean models (AOGCM). Caution is advised for their use for the purpose of short-term (less than a century) climate prediction as the predicted warming and spatial patterns vary depending on the initial state of the ocean, even in an ensemble mean. The range of uncertainty in such predictions by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) models may be underreported when models were run with their oceans at various stages of adjustment with their atmospheres. By comparing a very long run (> 1000 years) of the coupled Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) model with what was reported to IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), we show that the fully adjusted model transient climate sensitivity should be 30% higher for the same model, and the 2 C warming should occur sooner than previously predicted. Using model archives we further argue that this may be a common problem for the IPCC AR4 models, since few, if any, of the models has a fully adjusted ocean. For all models, multi-decadal climate predictions to 2050 are highly dependent on the initial ocean state (and so are unreliable). Such dependence cannot be removed simply by subtracting the climate drift from control runs.

  18. Predictability of the Indian Ocean Dipole in the coupled models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Huafeng; Tang, Youmin; Chen, Dake; Lian, Tao

    2017-03-01

    In this study, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) predictability, measured by the Indian Dipole Mode Index (DMI), is comprehensively examined at the seasonal time scale, including its actual prediction skill and potential predictability, using the ENSEMBLES multiple model ensembles and the recently developed information-based theoretical framework of predictability. It was found that all model predictions have useful skill, which is normally defined by the anomaly correlation coefficient larger than 0.5, only at around 2-3 month leads. This is mainly because there are more false alarms in predictions as leading time increases. The DMI predictability has significant seasonal variation, and the predictions whose target seasons are boreal summer (JJA) and autumn (SON) are more reliable than that for other seasons. All of models fail to predict the IOD onset before May and suffer from the winter (DJF) predictability barrier. The potential predictability study indicates that, with the model development and initialization improvement, the prediction of IOD onset is likely to be improved but the winter barrier cannot be overcome. The IOD predictability also has decadal variation, with a high skill during the 1960s and the early 1990s, and a low skill during the early 1970s and early 1980s, which is very consistent with the potential predictability. The main factors controlling the IOD predictability, including its seasonal and decadal variations, are also analyzed in this study.

  19. Hycom Pre - Feasibility study. Final report[Hydrogen communities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lacobazzi, A.; Mario, F di [ENEA, (Italy); Hasenauer, U. [Fraunhofer IS, (Germany); Joergensen, B.H.; Bromand Noergaard, P. [Risoe National Lab., (Denmark)

    2005-07-01

    The Quick-start Programme of the European Union Initiative for Growth identifies the hydrogen economy as one of the key areas for investment in the medium term (2004-2015). In this context the HyCOM (Hydrogen Communities) programme has been initiated. The main goal of this programme is the creation of a limited number of strategically sited stand-alone hydrogen communities producing hydrogen from various primary sources (mostly renewables) and using it for heat and electricity production and as fuel for vehicles. This report looks at the establishment of such hydrogen communities, analysing the main technical, economic, social, and environmental aspects as well as financial and regulatory barriers associated with the creation and operation of hydrogen communities. It also proposes a number of concepts for Hydrogen Communities and criteria with which a Hydrogen Community should be evaluated. The study is not in any way intended to be prescriptive. (ln)

  20. Moving Towards Dynamic Ocean Management: How Well Do Modeled Ocean Products Predict Species Distributions?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elizabeth A. Becker

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Species distribution models are now widely used in conservation and management to predict suitable habitat for protected marine species. The primary sources of dynamic habitat data have been in situ and remotely sensed oceanic variables (both are considered “measured data”, but now ocean models can provide historical estimates and forecast predictions of relevant habitat variables such as temperature, salinity, and mixed layer depth. To assess the performance of modeled ocean data in species distribution models, we present a case study for cetaceans that compares models based on output from a data assimilative implementation of the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS to those based on measured data. Specifically, we used seven years of cetacean line-transect survey data collected between 1991 and 2009 to develop predictive habitat-based models of cetacean density for 11 species in the California Current Ecosystem. Two different generalized additive models were compared: one built with a full suite of ROMS output and another built with a full suite of measured data. Model performance was assessed using the percentage of explained deviance, root mean squared error (RMSE, observed to predicted density ratios, and visual inspection of predicted and observed distributions. Predicted distribution patterns were similar for models using ROMS output and measured data, and showed good concordance between observed sightings and model predictions. Quantitative measures of predictive ability were also similar between model types, and RMSE values were almost identical. The overall demonstrated success of the ROMS-based models opens new opportunities for dynamic species management and biodiversity monitoring because ROMS output is available in near real time and can be forecast.

  1. Testing Predictions of Continental Insulation using Oceanic Crustal Thicknesses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoggard, Mark; Shorttle, Oliver; White, Nicky

    2016-04-01

    The thermal blanketing effect of continental crust has been predicted to lead to elevated temperatures within the upper mantle beneath supercontinents. Initial break-up is associated with increased magmatism and the generation of flood basalts. Continued rifting and sea-floor spreading lead to a steady reduction of this thermal anomaly. Recently, evidence in support of this behaviour has come from the major element geochemistry of mid-ocean ridge basalts, which suggest excess rifting temperatures of ˜ 150 °C that decay over ˜ 100 Ma. We have collated a global inventory of ˜ 1000 seismic reflection profiles and ˜ 500 wide-angle refraction experiments from the oceanic realm. Data are predominantly located along passive margins, but there are also multiple surveys in the centres of the major oceanic basins. Oceanic crustal thickness has been mapped, taking care to avoid areas of secondary magmatic thickening near seamounts or later thinning such as across transform faults. These crustal thicknesses are a proxy for mantle potential temperature at the time of melt formation beneath a mid-ocean ridge system, allowing us to quantify the amplitude and duration of thermal anomalies generated beneath supercontinents. The Jurassic break-up of the Central Atlantic and the Cretaceous rifting that formed the South Atlantic Ocean are both associated with excess temperatures of ˜ 50 °C that have e-folding times of ˜ 50 Ma. In addition to this background trend, excess temperatures reach > 150 °C around the region of the Rio Grande Rise, associated with the present-day Tristan hotspot. The e-folding time of this more local event is ˜ 10 Ma, which mirrors results obtained for the North Atlantic Ocean south of Iceland. In contrast, crustal thicknesses from the Pacific Ocean reveal approximately constant potential temperature through time. This observation is in agreement with predictions, as the western Pacific was formed by rifting of an oceanic plate. In summary

  2. Seasonal variability of salinity and salt transport in the northern Indian Ocean

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    D’Addezio, J.M.; Subrahmanyam, B.; Nyadjro, E.S.; Murty, V.S.N.

    and Climate of the Ocean, Phase II (ECCO2), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts–Ocean Reanalysis System 4 (ECMWF–ORAS4), Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) reanalysis, and the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM). The analyses...

  3. Statistical characteristics of irreversible predictability time in regional ocean models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. C. Chu

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Probabilistic aspects of regional ocean model predictability is analyzed using the probability density function (PDF of the irreversible predictability time (IPT (called τ-PDF computed from an unconstrained ensemble of stochastic perturbations in initial conditions, winds, and open boundary conditions. Two-attractors (a chaotic attractor and a small-amplitude stable limit cycle are found in the wind-driven circulation. Relationship between attractor's residence time and IPT determines the τ-PDF for the short (up to several weeks and intermediate (up to two months predictions. The τ-PDF is usually non-Gaussian but not multi-modal for red-noise perturbations in initial conditions and perturbations in the wind and open boundary conditions. Bifurcation of τ-PDF occurs as the tolerance level varies. Generally, extremely successful predictions (corresponding to the τ-PDF's tail toward large IPT domain are not outliers and share the same statistics as a whole ensemble of predictions.

  4. Enhanced Ocean Prediction using Ensemble Kalman Filter Techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-06-13

    WORK UNIT NUMBER 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO),Marine and...range prediction of mesoscale circulation. OBJECTIVES The immediate scientific objective of this research project is to develop a data...Miller. All have a long history of research in the area of ocean data assimilation. WORK COMPLETED We have completed a study that compared the

  5. A Parallel Ocean Model With Adaptive Mesh Refinement Capability For Global Ocean Prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Herrnstein, Aaron R. [Univ. of California, Davis, CA (United States)

    2005-12-01

    An ocean model with adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) capability is presented for simulating ocean circulation on decade time scales. The model closely resembles the LLNL ocean general circulation model with some components incorporated from other well known ocean models when appropriate. Spatial components are discretized using finite differences on a staggered grid where tracer and pressure variables are defined at cell centers and velocities at cell vertices (B-grid). Horizontal motion is modeled explicitly with leapfrog and Euler forward-backward time integration, and vertical motion is modeled semi-implicitly. New AMR strategies are presented for horizontal refinement on a B-grid, leapfrog time integration, and time integration of coupled systems with unequal time steps. These AMR capabilities are added to the LLNL software package SAMRAI (Structured Adaptive Mesh Refinement Application Infrastructure) and validated with standard benchmark tests. The ocean model is built on top of the amended SAMRAI library. The resulting model has the capability to dynamically increase resolution in localized areas of the domain. Limited basin tests are conducted using various refinement criteria and produce convergence trends in the model solution as refinement is increased. Carbon sequestration simulations are performed on decade time scales in domains the size of the North Atlantic and the global ocean. A suggestion is given for refinement criteria in such simulations. AMR predicts maximum pH changes and increases in CO2 concentration near the injection sites that are virtually unattainable with a uniform high resolution due to extremely long run times. Fine scale details near the injection sites are achieved by AMR with shorter run times than the finest uniform resolution tested despite the need for enhanced parallel performance. The North Atlantic simulations show a reduction in passive tracer errors when AMR is applied instead of a uniform coarse resolution. No

  6. An ENSO prediction approach based on ocean conditions and ocean-atmosphere coupling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tseng, Yu-heng; Hu, Zeng-Zhen; Ding, Ruiqiang; Chen, Han-ching

    2016-05-01

    A simple statistical model for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction is derived based on the evolution of the ocean heat condition and the oceanic Kelvin wave propagation associated with westerly wind events (WWEs) and easterly wind surges (EWSs) in the tropical Pacific. The multivariate linear regression model solely relies on the pentad thermocline depth anomaly evolution in 25 days along with the zonal surface wind modulation. It successfully hindcasts all ENSOs except for the 2000/01 La Niña, using the pentad (or monthly) mean tropical atmosphere ocean array data since 1994 with an averaged skill (measured by anomaly correlation) of 0.62 (or 0.67) with a 6-month lead. The exception is mainly due to the long-lasting cold sea surface temperature anomalies in the subtropics resulting from the strong 1998/99 La Niña, even though the tropical warm water volume (WWV) had rebounded and turned phases after 2000. We also note that the hindcast skill is comparable using pentad or monthly mean NCEP global ocean data assimilation system data for the same time period. The hindcast skill of the proposed statistical model is better than that based on the WWV index in terms of the monthly correlation, normalized RMSEs and ENSO occurrences, which suggest that including the evolution of the subsurface ocean temperature anomaly and the WWEs/EWSs in the central tropical Pacific can enhance the ability to predict ENSO. The hindcast skill is also comparable to the predictions using other dynamical and statistical models, indicating that these processes are the keys to ENSO development. The dynamics behind the statistical model are consistent with the physical processes of ENSO development as follows: the tropical WWV resulting from the interannually-varying meridional subtropical cell transport provides a sufficient heat source. When the seasonal phase lock of ocean-atmosphere coupling triggers the positive (negative) zonal wind anomaly in boreal summer and fall, an

  7. An ENSO prediction approach based on ocean conditions and ocean-atmosphere coupling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tseng, Yu-heng; Hu, Zeng-Zhen; Ding, Ruiqiang; Chen, Han-ching

    2017-03-01

    A simple statistical model for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction is derived based on the evolution of the ocean heat condition and the oceanic Kelvin wave propagation associated with westerly wind events (WWEs) and easterly wind surges (EWSs) in the tropical Pacific. The multivariate linear regression model solely relies on the pentad thermocline depth anomaly evolution in 25 days along with the zonal surface wind modulation. It successfully hindcasts all ENSOs except for the 2000/01 La Niña, using the pentad (or monthly) mean tropical atmosphere ocean array data since 1994 with an averaged skill (measured by anomaly correlation) of 0.62 (or 0.67) with a 6-month lead. The exception is mainly due to the long-lasting cold sea surface temperature anomalies in the subtropics resulting from the strong 1998/99 La Niña, even though the tropical warm water volume (WWV) had rebounded and turned phases after 2000. We also note that the hindcast skill is comparable using pentad or monthly mean NCEP global ocean data assimilation system data for the same time period. The hindcast skill of the proposed statistical model is better than that based on the WWV index in terms of the monthly correlation, normalized RMSEs and ENSO occurrences, which suggest that including the evolution of the subsurface ocean temperature anomaly and the WWEs/EWSs in the central tropical Pacific can enhance the ability to predict ENSO. The hindcast skill is also comparable to the predictions using other dynamical and statistical models, indicating that these processes are the keys to ENSO development. The dynamics behind the statistical model are consistent with the physical processes of ENSO development as follows: the tropical WWV resulting from the interannually-varying meridional subtropical cell transport provides a sufficient heat source. When the seasonal phase lock of ocean-atmosphere coupling triggers the positive (negative) zonal wind anomaly in boreal summer and fall, an

  8. Initial value predictability of intrinsic oceanic modes and implications for decadal prediction over North America

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Branstator, Grant [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)

    2014-12-09

    The overall aim of our project was to quantify and characterize predictability of the climate as it pertains to decadal time scale predictions. By predictability we mean the degree to which a climate forecast can be distinguished from the climate that exists at initial forecast time, taking into consideration the growth of uncertainty that occurs as a result of the climate system being chaotic. In our project we were especially interested in predictability that arises from initializing forecasts from some specific state though we also contrast this predictability with predictability arising from forecasting the reaction of the system to external forcing – for example changes in greenhouse gas concentration. Also, we put special emphasis on the predictability of prominent intrinsic patterns of the system because they often dominate system behavior. Highlights from this work include: • Development of novel methods for estimating the predictability of climate forecast models. • Quantification of the initial value predictability limits of ocean heat content and the overturning circulation in the Atlantic as they are represented in various state of the art climate models. These limits varied substantially from model to model but on average were about a decade with North Atlantic heat content tending to be more predictable than North Pacific heat content. • Comparison of predictability resulting from knowledge of the current state of the climate system with predictability resulting from estimates of how the climate system will react to changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. It turned out that knowledge of the initial state produces a larger impact on forecasts for the first 5 to 10 years of projections. • Estimation of the predictability of dominant patterns of ocean variability including well-known patterns of variability in the North Pacific and North Atlantic. For the most part these patterns were predictable for 5 to 10 years. • Determination of

  9. Ocean Model, Analysis and Prediction System version 3: operational global ocean forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brassington, Gary; Sandery, Paul; Sakov, Pavel; Freeman, Justin; Divakaran, Prasanth; Beckett, Duan

    2017-04-01

    The Ocean Model, Analysis and Prediction System version 3 (OceanMAPSv3) is a near-global (75S-75N; no sea-ice), uniform horizontal resolution (0.1°x0.1°), 51 vertical level ocean forecast system producing daily analyses and 7 day forecasts. This system was declared operational at the Bureau of Meteorology in April 2016 and subsequently upgraded to include ACCESS-G APS2 in June 2016 and finally ported to the Bureau's new supercomputer in Sep 2016. This system realises the original vision of the BLUElink projects (2003-2015) to provide global forecasts of the ocean geostrophic turbulence (eddies and fronts) in support of Naval operations as well as other national services. The analysis system has retained an ensemble-based optimal interpolation method with 144 stationary ensemble members derived from a multi-year hindcast. However, the BODAS code has been upgraded to a new code base ENKF-C. A new strategy for initialisation has been introduced leading to greater retention of analysis increments and reduced shock. The analysis cycle has been optimised for a 3-cycle system with 3 day observation windows retaining an advantage as a multi-cycle time-lagged ensemble. The sea surface temperature and sea surface height anomaly analysis errors in the Australian region are 0.34 degC and 6.2 cm respectively an improvement of 10% and 20% respectively over version 2. In addition, the RMSE of the 7 day forecast has lower error than the 1 day forecast from the previous system (version 2). International intercomparisons have shown that this system is comparable in performance with the two leading systems and is often the leading performer for surface temperature and upper ocean temperature. We present an overview of the system, the data assimilation and initialisation, demonstrate the performance and outline future directions.

  10. Quantifying the role of ocean initial conditions in decadal prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matei, D.; Pohlmann, H.; Müller, W.; Haak, H.; Jungclaus, J.; Marotzke, J.

    2009-04-01

    The forecast skill of decadal climate predictions is investigated using two different initialization strategies. First we apply an assimilation of ocean synthesis data provided by the GECCO project (Köhl and Stammer 2008) as initial conditions for the coupled model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. The results show promising skill up to decadal time scales particularly over the North Atlantic (see also Pohlmann et al. 2009). However, mismatches between the ocean climates of GECCO and the MPI-OM model may lead to inconsistencies in the representation of water masses. Therefore, we pursue an alternative approach to the representation of the observed North Atlantic climate for the period 1948-2007. Using the same MPI-OM ocean model as in the coupled system, we perform an ensemble of four NCEP integrations. The ensemble mean temperature and salinity anomalies are then nudged into the coupled model, followed by hindcast/forecast experiments. The model gives dynamically consistent three-dimensional temperature and salinity fields, thereby avoiding the problems of model drift that were encountered when the assimilation experiment was only driven by reconstructed SSTs (Keenlyside et al. 2008, Pohlmann et al. 2009). Differences between the two assimilation approaches are discussed by comparing them with the observational data in key regions and processes, such as North Atlantic and Tropical Pacific climate, MOC variability, Subpolar Gyre variability.

  11. The Coastal Ocean Prediction Systems program: Understanding and managing our coastal ocean. Volume 2: Overview and invited papers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1990-05-15

    This document is a compilation of summaries of papers presented at the Coastal Ocean Prediction Systems workshop. Topics include; marine forecasting, regulatory agencies and regulations, research and application models, research and operational observing, oceanic and atmospheric data assimilation, and coastal physical processes.

  12. Towards the use of HYCOM in Coupled ENSO Prediction: Assessment of ENSO Skill in Forced Global HYCOM

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-08-10

    are available. 2 2. Equatorial Pacific mean Conductivity-Temperature-Depth (CTD)/ Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) sections by Johnson et...temperature and salinity biases do not compensate in such as way that the pycnocline tilt matches that of Argo. A complete set of mean and RMS misfits were

  13. Predicting The Intrusion Layer From Deep Ocean Oil Spills

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Dayang; Chow, Aaron; Adams, E. Eric

    2015-11-01

    Oil spills from deep ocean blowout events motivate our study of multiphase plumes in a water column. Key to understanding the long-term fate of these plumes is the ability to predict the depth and persistence of intrusion layers. While intrusion layers from multiphase plumes have been studied under stagnant conditions, their behavior in the presence of crossflow, especially in mild crossflow, remains poorly understood. The classical classification of plume behavior identifies two regimes: crossflow-dominant and stratification-dominant--but it does not account for the interplay between the two effects, leaving the transition region unexplored. We conduct laboratory tank experiments to investigate the behavior of intrusion layers under the simultaneous action of crossflow and stratification. Our experiments use an inverted frame of reference, using glass beads with a range of sizes to simulate oil droplets. We find that crossflow creates enhanced mixing, which in turn leads to a shallower intrusion layer of the released fluid (correspondingly, a deeper layer in the case of a deep ocean blowout). We develop a mathematical formulation that extends previous models to account for crossflow effects, and use field observations to validate the analytical and experimental findings.

  14. Climate Prediction Center (CPC)Oceanic Nino Index

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) is one of the primary indices used to monitor the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The ONI is calculated by averaging sea surface...

  15. OceanNOMADS: Real-time and retrospective access to operational U.S. ocean prediction products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harding, J. M.; Cross, S. L.; Bub, F.; Ji, M.

    2011-12-01

    The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Operational Model Archive and Distribution System (NOMADS) provides both real-time and archived atmospheric model output from servers at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) respectively (http://nomads.ncep.noaa.gov/txt_descriptions/marRutledge-1.pdf). The NOAA National Ocean Data Center (NODC) with NCEP is developing a complementary capability called OceanNOMADS for operational ocean prediction models. An NCEP ftp server currently provides real-time ocean forecast output (http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/newNCOM/NCOM_currents.shtml) with retrospective access through NODC. A joint effort between the Northern Gulf Institute (NGI; a NOAA Cooperative Institute) and the NOAA National Coastal Data Development Center (NCDDC; a division of NODC) created the developmental version of the retrospective OceanNOMADS capability (http://www.northerngulfinstitute.org/edac/ocean_nomads.php) under the NGI Ecosystem Data Assembly Center (EDAC) project (http://www.northerngulfinstitute.org/edac/). Complementary funding support for the developmental OceanNOMADS from U.S. Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS) through the Southeastern University Research Association (SURA) Model Testbed (http://testbed.sura.org/) this past year provided NODC the analogue that facilitated the creation of an NCDDC production version of OceanNOMADS (http://www.ncddc.noaa.gov/ocean-nomads/). Access tool development and storage of initial archival data sets occur on the NGI/NCDDC developmental servers with transition to NODC/NCCDC production servers as the model archives mature and operational space and distribution capability grow. Navy operational global ocean forecast subsets for U.S waters comprise the initial ocean prediction fields resident on the NCDDC production server. The NGI/NCDDC developmental server currently includes the Naval Research Laboratory Inter-America Seas

  16. Mesoscale variability in the Arabian Sea from HYCOM model results and observations: impact on the Persian Gulf Water path

    Science.gov (United States)

    L'Hégaret, P.; Duarte, R.; Carton, X.; Vic, C.; Ciani, D.; Baraille, R.; Corréard, S.

    2015-09-01

    The Arabian Sea and Sea of Oman circulation and water masses, subject to monsoon forcing, reveal a strong seasonal variability and intense mesoscale features. We describe and analyze this variability and these features, using both meteorological data (from ECMWF reanalyses), in situ observations (from the ARGO float program and the GDEM - Generalized Digital Environmental mode - climatology), satellite altimetry (from AVISO) and a regional simulation with a primitive equation model (HYCOM - the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model). The model and observations display comparable variability, and the model is then used to analyze the three-dimensional structure of eddies and water masses with higher temporal and spatial resolutions than the available observations. The mesoscale features are highly seasonal, with the formation of coastal currents, destabilizing into eddies, or the radiation of Rossby waves from the Indian coast. The mesoscale eddies have a deep dynamical influence and strongly drive the water masses at depth. In particular, in the Sea of Oman, the Persian Gulf Water presents several offshore ejection sites and a complex recirculation, depending on the mesoscale eddies. The associated mechanisms range from coastal ejection via dipoles, alongshore pulses due to a cyclonic eddy, to the formation of lee eddies downstream of Ra's Al Hamra. This water mass is also captured inside the eddies via several mechanisms, keeping high thermohaline characteristics in the Arabian Sea. The variations of the outflow characteristics near the Strait of Hormuz are compared with variations downstream.

  17. Southern Ocean Predicted Seafloor Topography Poster - MGG9

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This 36 by 48 inch full color poster is MGG Report 9. In many areas of the global ocean, the depth of the seafloor is not well known because survey lines by ships...

  18. Decadal potential predictability of upper ocean heat content over the twentieth century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Shujun; Zhang, Liping; Wu, Lixin

    2017-02-01

    The statistical method, Average Predictability Time (APT) decomposition, is used in the present paper to estimate the decadal predictability of upper ocean heat content over the global ocean, North Pacific and North Atlantic, respectively. The twentieth century simulations from CMIP5 outputs are the main data sources in this study. On global scale, the leading predictable component is characterized by a warming trend over the majority of oceans, which is related to the anthropogenic forced response. The second predictable component has significant loadings in the North Atlantic, especially in the subtropical region, which originates from the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) predictability. To separate interactions among different ocean basins, we further maximize APT in individual North Pacific and North Atlantic oceans. It is found that the second and the third predictable component in North Pacific are significantly correlated with the well-known North Pacific Gyre Oscillation mode and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation respectively. Upper limit prediction skill of these two components are on the order of 6 years. In contrast, the most predictable component derived from the North Atlantic features an AMO-like spatial structure with its prediction skill up to 18 years, while the basin mode due to global warming only exists as the third component. This indicates the interdecadal variability in the North Atlantic is strong enough to mask the anthropogenic climate signals. Furthermore, predictability in the real world is also investigated and compared with model results by using observation-based data.

  19. South African seasonal rainfall prediction performance by a coupled ocean-atmosphere model

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Landman, WA

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Evidence is presented that coupled ocean-atmosphere models can already outscore computationally less expensive atmospheric models. However, if the atmospheric models are forced with highly skillful SST predictions, they may still be a very strong...

  20. Influence of Met-Ocean Condition Forecasting Uncertainties on Weather Window Predictions for Offshore Operations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gintautas, Tomas; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2017-01-01

    The article briefly presents a novel methodology of weather window estimation for offshore operations and mainly focuses on effects of met-ocean condition forecasting uncertainties on weather window predictions when using the proposed methodology. It is demonstrated that the proposed methodology...... to include stochastic variables, representing met-ocean forecasting uncertainties and the results of such modification are given in terms of predicted weather windows for a selected test case....

  1. The Dependence of Global Ocean Modeling on Background Diapycnal Mixing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zengan Deng

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The Argo-derived background diapycnal mixing (BDM proposed by Deng et al. (in publish is introduced to and applied in Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM. Sensitive experiments are carried out using HYCOM to detect the responses of ocean surface temperature and Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC to BDM in a global context. Preliminary results show that utilizing a constant BDM, with the same order of magnitude as the realistic one, may cause significant deviation in temperature and MOC. It is found that the dependence of surface temperature and MOC on BDM is prominent. Surface temperature is decreased with the increase of BDM, because diapycnal mixing can promote the deep cold water return to the upper ocean. Comparing to the control run, more striking MOC changes can be caused by the larger variation in BDM.

  2. Dynamics of Eddies in the Southeastern Tropical Indian Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanifah, F.; Ningsih, N. S.; Sofian, I.

    2016-08-01

    A holistic study was done on eddies in the Southeastern Tropical Indian Ocean (SETIO) using the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) for 64 years (from 1950 to 2013). The results from the model were verified against the current and the Sea Surface Height Anomaly (SSHA) from Ocean Surface Current Analyses - Real time (OSCAR) and Archiving, Validation and Interpretation of Satellite Oceanographic Data (AVISO) respectively. The verification showed that the model simulates the condition in the area of study relatively well. We discovered that the local wind was not the only factor that contributed to the formation of eddies in the area. The difference in South Java Current (SJC) flow compared to the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) and South Equatorial Current (SEC) flow as well as the difference in the relative velocity between the currents in the area led us to suspect that shear velocity may be responsible for the formation of eddies. The results from our model corroborated our prediction about shear velocity. Therefore, we attempted to explain the appearance of eddies in the SETIO based on the concept of shear velocity. By observing and documenting the occurrences of eddies in the area, we found that there are 8 cyclonic and 7 anticyclonic eddies in the SETIO. The distribution and frequency of the appearance of eddies varies, depending on the season.

  3. Seasonal streamflow prediction in Colombia using atmospheric and oceanic patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Córdoba-Machado, Samir; Palomino-Lemus, Reiner; Gámiz-Fortis, Sonia Raquel; Castro-Díez, Yolanda; Esteban-Parra, María Jesús

    2016-07-01

    The predictability of the Magdalena River seasonal streamflow anomalies is evaluated using previous Sea Surface Temperature (SST), Precipitation (Pt) and Temperature over land (Tm) seasonal anomalies. Through a moving correlation analysis of 30 years, several regions that show stable significant teleconnections between the seasonal streamflow and SST, Pt and Tm from previous seasons have been identified during the period 1936-2009. For lags from one to four 3-month seasons (i.e. up to one year) for the SST and one to two seasons (i.e. up to six months) for Pt and Tm, the Magdalena River seasonal streamflow presents significant and stable correlations with the tropical Pacific SST (El Niño region), with Pt in South America and with Tm over the north of South America, mainly at lags of one and two seasons. The first PCs resulting from the significant and stable regions of the SST, Pt, and Tm fields are used in a forecast scheme to predict seasonal streamflow anomalies. The prediction based on this scheme shows an acceptable prediction skill and represents a relative improvement compared with the predictability of teleconnection indices associated with El Niño, which are traditionally used to predict streamflow in the country. This improvement is particularly more noticeable when lag between streamflow and predictors increases.

  4. Empirical approaches to more accurately predict benthic-pelagic coupling in biogeochemical ocean models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dale, Andy; Stolpovsky, Konstantin; Wallmann, Klaus

    2016-04-01

    The recycling and burial of biogenic material in the sea floor plays a key role in the regulation of ocean chemistry. Proper consideration of these processes in ocean biogeochemical models is becoming increasingly recognized as an important step in model validation and prediction. However, the rate of organic matter remineralization in sediments and the benthic flux of redox-sensitive elements are difficult to predict a priori. In this communication, examples of empirical benthic flux models that can be coupled to earth system models to predict sediment-water exchange in the open ocean are presented. Large uncertainties hindering further progress in this field include knowledge of the reactivity of organic carbon reaching the sediment, the importance of episodic variability in bottom water chemistry and particle rain rates (for both the deep-sea and margins) and the role of benthic fauna. How do we meet the challenge?

  5. Uncertainty quantification for large-scale ocean circulation predictions.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Safta, Cosmin; Debusschere, Bert J.; Najm, Habib N.; Sargsyan, Khachik

    2010-09-01

    Uncertainty quantificatio in climate models is challenged by the sparsity of the available climate data due to the high computational cost of the model runs. Another feature that prevents classical uncertainty analyses from being easily applicable is the bifurcative behavior in the climate data with respect to certain parameters. A typical example is the Meridional Overturning Circulation in the Atlantic Ocean. The maximum overturning stream function exhibits discontinuity across a curve in the space of two uncertain parameters, namely climate sensitivity and CO{sub 2} forcing. We develop a methodology that performs uncertainty quantificatio in the presence of limited data that have discontinuous character. Our approach is two-fold. First we detect the discontinuity location with a Bayesian inference, thus obtaining a probabilistic representation of the discontinuity curve location in presence of arbitrarily distributed input parameter values. Furthermore, we developed a spectral approach that relies on Polynomial Chaos (PC) expansions on each sides of the discontinuity curve leading to an averaged-PC representation of the forward model that allows efficient uncertainty quantification and propagation. The methodology is tested on synthetic examples of discontinuous data with adjustable sharpness and structure.

  6. A survey of models for the prediction of ambient ocean noise: Circa 1995

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Doolittle, R.

    1996-01-01

    The state of the art of model development for application to computer studies of undersea search systems utilizing acoustics is surveyed in this document. Due to the demands for surveillance of submarines operating in ocean basins, the development of noise models for application in deep oceans is fairly advanced and somewhat generic. This is due to the deep sound channel, discovered during World War II, which when present allows for long-range sound propagation with little or no interaction with the bottom. Exceptions to this channel, also well understood, are found in both the high latitudes where the sound is upward refracting and in tropical ocean areas with downward refracting sound transmission. The controlling parameter is the sound speed as a function of depth within the ocean, the sound speed profile. When independent of range, this profile may be converted to a noise-versus-depth profile with well-validated consequences for deep-ocean ambient noise. When considering ocean areas of shallow water, the littoral regions, the idea of a genenic ocean channel advisedly is abandoned. The locally unique nature of both the noise production mechanisms and of the channel carrying the sound, obviates the generic treatment. Nevertheless, idealizations of this case exist and promote the understanding if not the exact predictability of the statistics of shallow water ambient noise. Some examples of these models are given in this document.

  7. Predicting the distribution of oceanic-stage Kemp's ridley sea turtles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Putman, Nathan F; Mansfield, Katherine L; He, Ruoying; Shaver, Donna J; Verley, Philippe

    2013-10-23

    The inaccessibility of open ocean habitat and the cryptic nature of small animals are fundamental problems when assessing the distribution of oceanic-stage sea turtles and other marine animals sharing similar life-history traits. Most methods that estimate patterns of abundance cannot be applied in situations that are extremely data limited. Here, we use a movement ecology framework to generate the first predicted distributions for the oceanic stage of the Kemp's ridley sea turtle (Lepidochelys kempii). Our simulations of particle dispersal within ocean circulation models reveal substantial annual variation in distribution and survival among simulated cohorts. Such techniques can help prioritize areas for conservation, and supply inputs for more realistic demographic models attempting to characterize population trends.

  8. North Atlantic thermohaline circulation predictability in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model

    CERN Document Server

    Griffies, S M; Griffies, Stephen M.; Bryan, Kirk

    1995-01-01

    Predictability of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) variability as simulated in the GFDL coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model is established for a set of ensemble experiments. The ensembles consist of identical oceanic initial conditions underneath a model atmosphere chosen randomly from the model climatology. This experimental design is based on the separation in time scales present in the model which motivates the assumption that the predictability deduced from these ensembles provides an upper limit to the model's THC predictability. The climatology is taken from a multi-century model integration whose THC variability has power concentrated at the 40-60 year time scale. A linear stochastic perspective is shown to be generally consistent with the ensemble statistics. The linear theory suggests a natural measure of ensemble predictability as the time at which the ensemble variance becomes a subjectively defined fraction (0.5 used here) of the climatological variance. It is furth...

  9. Enabling Persistent Autonomy for Underwater Gliders with Ocean Model Predictions and Terrain Based Navigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew eStuntz

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Effective study of ocean processes requires sampling over the duration of long (weeks to months oscillation patterns. Such sampling requires persistent, autonomous underwater vehicles, that have a similarly long deployment duration. The spatiotemporal dynamics of the ocean environment, coupled with limited communication capabilities, make navigation and localization difficult, especially in coastal regions where the majority of interesting phenomena occur. In this paper, we consider the combination of two methods for reducing navigation and localization error; a predictive approach based on ocean model predictions and a prior information approach derived from terrain-based navigation. The motivation for this work is not only for real-time state estimation, but also for accurately reconstructing the actual path that the vehicle traversed to contextualize the gathered data, with respect to the science question at hand. We present an application for the practical use of priors and predictions for large-scale ocean sampling. This combined approach builds upon previous works by the authors, and accurately localizes the traversed path of an underwater glider over long-duration, ocean deployments. The proposed method takes advantage of the reliable, short-term predictions of an ocean model, and the utility of priors used in terrain-based navigation over areas of significant bathymetric relief to bound uncertainty error in dead-reckoning navigation. This method improves upon our previously published works by 1 demonstrating the utility of our terrain-based navigation method with multiple field trials, and 2 presenting a hybrid algorithm that combines both approaches to bound navigational error and uncertainty for long-term deployments of underwater vehicles. We demonstrate the approach by examining data from actual field trials with autonomous underwater gliders, and demonstrate an ability to estimate geographical location of an underwater glider to 2

  10. South African mid-summer seasonal rainfall prediction performance by a coupled ocean-atmosphere model

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Landman, WA

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available . 2000; Goddard and Mason, 2002). Such a so-called two-tiered procedure to predict the outcome of the rainfall season has been employed in South Africa for a number of years already (e.g., Landman et al., 2001). The advent of fully coupled ocean...

  11. Ocean surface waves in Hurricane Ike (2008) and Superstorm Sandy (2012): Coupled model predictions and observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Shuyi S.; Curcic, Milan

    2016-07-01

    Forecasting hurricane impacts of extreme winds and flooding requires accurate prediction of hurricane structure and storm-induced ocean surface waves days in advance. The waves are complex, especially near landfall when the hurricane winds and water depth varies significantly and the surface waves refract, shoal and dissipate. In this study, we examine the spatial structure, magnitude, and directional spectrum of hurricane-induced ocean waves using a high resolution, fully coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean model and observations. The coupled model predictions of ocean surface waves in Hurricane Ike (2008) over the Gulf of Mexico and Superstorm Sandy (2012) in the northeastern Atlantic and coastal region are evaluated with the NDBC buoy and satellite altimeter observations. Although there are characteristics that are general to ocean waves in both hurricanes as documented in previous studies, wave fields in Ike and Sandy possess unique properties due mostly to the distinct wind fields and coastal bathymetry in the two storms. Several processes are found to significantly modulate hurricane surface waves near landfall. First, the phase speed and group velocities decrease as the waves become shorter and steeper in shallow water, effectively increasing surface roughness and wind stress. Second, the bottom-induced refraction acts to turn the waves toward the coast, increasing the misalignment between the wind and waves. Third, as the hurricane translates over land, the left side of the storm center is characterized by offshore winds over very short fetch, which opposes incoming swell. Landfalling hurricanes produce broader wave spectra overall than that of the open ocean. The front-left quadrant is most complex, where the combination of windsea, swell propagating against the wind, increasing wind-wave stress, and interaction with the coastal topography requires a fully coupled model to meet these challenges in hurricane wave and surge prediction.

  12. Prediction of winter precipitation over northwest India using ocean heat fluxes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nageswararao, M. M.; Mohanty, U. C.; Osuri, Krishna K.; Ramakrishna, S. S. V. S.

    2016-10-01

    The winter precipitation (December-February) over northwest India (NWI) is highly variable in terms of time and space. The maximum precipitation occurs over the Himalaya region and decreases towards south of NWI. The winter precipitation is important for water resources and agriculture sectors over the region and for the economy of the country. It is an exigent task to the scientific community to provide a seasonal outlook for the regional scale precipitation. The oceanic heat fluxes are known to have a strong linkage with the ocean and atmosphere. Henceforth, in this study, we obtained the relationship of NWI winter precipitation with total downward ocean heat fluxes at the global ocean surface, 15 regions with significant correlations are identified from August to November at 90 % confidence level. These strong relations encourage developing an empirical model for predicting winter precipitation over NWI. The multiple linear regression (MLR) and principal component regression (PCR) models are developed and evaluated using leave-one-out cross-validation. The developed regression models are able to predict the winter precipitation patterns over NWI with significant (99 % confidence level) index of agreement and correlations. Moreover, these models capture the signals of extremes, but could not reach the peaks (excess and deficit) of the observations. PCR performs better than MLR for predicting winter precipitation over NWI. Therefore, the total downward ocean heat fluxes at surface from August to November are having a significant impact on seasonal winter precipitation over the NWI. It concludes that these interrelationships are more useful for the development of empirical models and feasible to predict the winter precipitation over NWI with sufficient lead-time (in advance) for various risk management sectors.

  13. Surface salinity fields in the Arctic Ocean and statistical approaches to predicting anomalies and patterns

    CERN Document Server

    Chernyavskaya, Ekaterina A; Golden, Kenneth M; Timokhov, Leonid A

    2014-01-01

    Significant salinity anomalies have been observed in the Arctic Ocean surface layer during the last decade. Using gridded data of winter salinity in the upper 50 m layer of the Arctic Ocean for the period 1950-1993 and 2007-2012, we investigated the inter-annual variability of the salinity fields, attempted to identify patterns and anomalies, and developed a statistical model for the prediction of surface layer salinity. The statistical model is based on linear regression equations linking the principal components with environmental factors, such as atmospheric circulation, river runoff, ice processes, and water exchange with neighboring oceans. Using this model, we obtained prognostic fields of the surface layer salinity for the winter period 2013-2014. The prognostic fields demonstrated the same tendencies of surface layer freshening that were observed previously. A phase portrait analysis involving the first two principal components exhibits a dramatic shift in behavior of the 2007-2012 data in comparison ...

  14. Seasonality and Predictability of the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode: ENSO Forcing and Internal Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Y.

    2015-12-01

    This study evaluates the relative contributions to the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mode of interannual variability from the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forcing and ocean-atmosphere feedbacks internal to the Indian Ocean. The ENSO forcing and internal variability is extracted by conducting a 10-member coupled simulation for 1950-2012 where sea surface temperature (SST) is restored to the observed anomalies over the tropical Pacific but interactive with the atmosphere over the rest of the world ocean. In these experiments, the ensemble mean is due to ENSO forcing and the inter-member difference arises from internal variability of the climate system independent of ENSO. These elements contribute one third and two thirds of the total IOD variance, respectively. Both types of IOD variability develop into an east-west dipole pattern due to Bjerknes feedback and peak in September-November. The ENSO forced and internal IOD modes differ in several important ways. The forced IOD mode develops in August with a broad meridional pattern, and eventually evolves into the Indian Ocean Basin mode; while the internal IOD mode grows earlier in June, is more confined to the equator and decays rapidly after October. The internal IOD mode is more skewed than the ENSO forced response. The destructive interference of ENSO forcing and internal variability can explain early-terminating IOD events, referred to IOD-like perturbations that fail to grow during boreal summer. Our results have implications for predictability. Internal variability, as represented by pre-season sea surface height anomalies off Sumatra, contributes to predictability considerably. Including this indicator of internal variability, together with ENSO, improves the predictability of IOD.

  15. Predictive Understanding of the Oceans' Wind-Driven Circulation on Interdecadal Time Scales

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ghil, Michael [Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (United States). Dept. of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and IGPP; Temam, Roger [Indiana Univ., Bloomington, IN (United States). Dept. of Mathematics; Feliks, Y. [IIBR (France); Simonnet, E. [INLN (France); Tachim-Medjo, T. [Florida International Univ. (FIU), Miami, FL (United States)

    2008-09-30

    The goal of this project was to obtain a predictive understanding of a major component of the climate system's interdecadal variability: the oceans' wind-driven circulation. To do so, we developed and applied advanced computational and statistical methods to the problem of climate variability and climate change. The methodology was developed first for models of intermediate complexity, such as the quasi-geostrophic and the primitive equations, which describe the wind-driven, near-surface flow in mid-latitude ocean basins. Our computational work consisted in developing efficient multi-level methods to simulate this flow and study its dependence on physically relevant parameters. Our oceanographic and climate work consisted in applying these methods to study the bifurcations in the wind-driven circulation and their relevance to the flows observed at present and those that might occur in a warmer climate. Both aspects of the work are crucial for the efficient treatment of large-scale, eddy-resolving numerical simulations of the oceans and an increased understanding and better prediction of climate change. Considerable progress has been achieved in understanding ocean-atmosphere interaction in the mid-latitudes. An important by-product of this research is a novel approach to explaining the North Atlantic Oscillation.

  16. Use of Ocean Remote Sensing Data to Enhance Predictions with a Coupled General Circulation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rienecker, Michele M.

    1999-01-01

    Surface height, sea surface temperature and surface wind observations from satellites have given a detailed time sequence of the initiation and evolution of the 1997/98 El Nino. The data have beet complementary to the subsurface TAO moored data in their spatial resolution and extent. The impact of satellite observations on seasonal prediction in the tropical Pacific using a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model will be presented.

  17. Improving Surface Flux Parameterizations in the Navy’s Coastal Ocean Atmosphere Prediction System

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-06-07

    Improving Surface Flux Parameterizations in the Navy’s Coastal Ocean Atmosphere Prediction System Shouping Wang Naval Research Laboratory...this research is to improve the surface flux and boundary layer turbulence parameteri- zation in COAMPS®1 for low- and high-wind events over the...processes and developing new parameterizations for the surface and boundary layer turbulence mixing. We pro- vide real-time COAMPS weather forecasts

  18. Novel biogeochemical theory predicts ocean carbon reservoir response to changes in MOC strength and diapycnal mixing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunn, A.; Marinov, I.; Nikurashin, M.

    2016-12-01

    Physical ocean processes strongly regulate atmospheric carbon on ocean equilibrium timescales such as those associated with glacial terminations. Here we propose a novel analytical theory for linking changes in global ocean circulation with air-sea CO2 exchange, as well as an intriguing application of this theory to deglaciation dynamics. The theory relies on a Lagrangian analysis of biogeochemical processes affecting air-sea carbon partitioning within MOC water parcels. Our theory accounts for biological uptake, remineralization and air-sea CO2 exchange. The theory predicts analytically atmospheric CO2 and the amount of carbon stored in each cell as a function of the competing roles of the time scales associated with biological uptake, remineralization, gas-exchange and surface circulation. Additionally, the strength of the overturning in each of the cells is calculated from pycnocline depth, wind strength, diapycnal mixing, buoyancy fluxes and eddies based on the analytical theory of Nikurashin and Vallis (2011, 2012). With the combined physical-biogeochemistry theoretical framework we predict how atmospheric and ocean carbon change with diapycnal mixing and the resulting MOC variations. Our theory compares well with the output from a set of 7 steady-state simulations with varying diapycnal mixings using the global ocean-only 2.8o MITgcm with a simple biogeochemical package. Our theoretical and modeling results present an interesting application and conundrum for deglaciation dynamics. Tidal models indicate that diapyncal mixing was far stronger during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) compared to the present. Ice melt during deglaciations significantly increases ocean volume relative to the LGM, decreasing the diapycnal mixing over most of the ocean and slowing down the MOC (Schmittner 2015). Using the proposed diapycnal diffusivity values from Schmittner (2015) (while disregarding all other possible mechanisms), our model would then predict a decreased atmospheric

  19. Winter habitat predictions of a key Southern Ocean predator, the Antarctic fur seal (Arctocephalus gazella)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arthur, Benjamin; Hindell, Mark; Bester, Marthan; De Bruyn, P. J. Nico; Trathan, Phil; Goebel, Michael; Lea, Mary-Anne

    2017-06-01

    Quantification of the physical and biological environmental factors that influence the spatial distribution of higher trophic species is central to inform management and develop ecosystem models, particularly in light of ocean changes. We used tracking data from 184 female Antarctic fur seals (Arctocephalus gazella) to develop habitat models for three breeding colonies for the poorly studied Southern Ocean winter period. Models were used to identify and predict the broadly important winter foraging habitat and to elucidate the environmental factors influencing these areas. Model predictions closely matched observations and several core areas of foraging habitat were identified for each colony, with notable areas of inter-colony overlap suggesting shared productive foraging grounds. Seals displayed clear choice of foraging habitat, travelling through areas of presumably poorer quality to access habitats that likely offer an energetic advantage in terms of prey intake. The relationships between environmental predictors and foraging habitat varied between colonies, with the principal predictors being wind speed, sea surface temperature, chlorophyll a concentration, bathymetry and distance to the colony. The availability of core foraging areas was not consistent throughout the winter period. The habitat models developed in this study not only reveal the core foraging habitats of Antarctic fur seals from multiple colonies, but can facilitate the hindcasting of historical foraging habitats as well as novel predictions of important habitat for other major colonies currently lacking information of the at-sea distribution of this major Southern Ocean consumer.

  20. Impact of Targeted Ocean Observations for Improving Ocean Model Initialization for Coupled Hurricane Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halliwell, G. R.; Srinivasan, A.; Kourafalou, V. H.; Yang, H.; Le Henaff, M.; Atlas, R. M.

    2012-12-01

    The accuracy of hurricane intensity forecasts produced by coupled forecast models is influenced by errors and biases in SST forecasts produced by the ocean model component and the resulting impact on the enthalpy flux from ocean to atmosphere that powers the storm. Errors and biases in fields used to initialize the ocean model seriously degrade SST forecast accuracy. One strategy for improving ocean model initialization is to design a targeted observing program using airplanes and in-situ devices such as floats and drifters so that assimilation of the additional data substantially reduces errors in the ocean analysis system that provides the initial fields. Given the complexity and expense of obtaining these additional observations, observing system design methods such as OSSEs are attractive for designing efficient observing strategies. A new fraternal-twin ocean OSSE system based on the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) is used to assess the impact of targeted ocean profiles observed by hurricane research aircraft, and also by in-situ float and drifter deployments, on reducing errors in initial ocean fields. A 0.04-degree HYCOM simulation of the Gulf of Mexico is evaluated as the nature run by determining that important ocean circulation features such as the Loop Current and synoptic cyclones and anticyclones are realistically simulated. The data-assimilation system is run on a 0.08-degree HYCOM mesh with substantially different model configuration than the nature run, and it uses a new ENsemble Kalman Filter (ENKF) algorithm optimized for the ocean model's hybrid vertical coordinates. The OSSE system is evaluated and calibrated by first running Observing System Experiments (OSEs) to evaluate existing observing systems, specifically quantifying the impact of assimilating more than one satellite altimeter, and also the impact of assimilating targeted ocean profiles taken by the NOAA WP-3D hurricane research aircraft in the Gulf of Mexico during the Deepwater

  1. Decadal predictability of extreme fresh water export events from the Arctic Ocean into the Nordic Seas and subpolar North Atlantic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmith, Torben; Olsen, Steffen M.; Ringgaard, Ida M.; May, Wilhelm

    2016-04-01

    Abrupt fresh water releases originating in the Arctic Ocean have been documented to affect ocean circulation and climate in the North Atlantic area. Therefore, in this study, we investigate prospects for predicting such events up to one decade ahead. This is done in a perfect model setup by a combination of analyzing a 500 year control experiment and dedicated ensemble experiment aimed at predicting selected 10 year long segments of the control experiment. The selected segments are characterized by a large positive or negative trend in the total fresh water content in the Arctic Ocean. The analysis of the components (liquid fresh water and sea ice) reveals that they develop in a near random walk manner. From this we conclude that the main mechanism is integration of fresh water in the Beaufort Gyre through Ekman pumping from the randomly varying atmosphere. Therefore, the predictions from the ensemble experiments are on average not better than a damped persistence predictions. By running two different families of ensemble predictions, one starting from the 'observed' ocean globally, and one starting from climatology in the Arctic Ocean and from the observed ocean elsewhere, we conclude that the former outperforms the latter for the first few years as regards liquid fresh water and for the first year as regards sea ice. Analysis of the model experiments in terms of the fresh water export from the Arctic Ocean into Nordic seas and the subpolar North Atlantic reveals a very modest potential for predictability.

  2. Ocean circulation model predicts high genetic structure observed in a long-lived pelagic developer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sunday, J M; Popovic, I; Palen, W J; Foreman, M G G; Hart, M W

    2014-10-01

    Understanding the movement of genes and individuals across marine seascapes is a long-standing challenge in marine ecology and can inform our understanding of local adaptation, the persistence and movement of populations, and the spatial scale of effective management. Patterns of gene flow in the ocean are often inferred based on population genetic analyses coupled with knowledge of species' dispersive life histories. However, genetic structure is the result of time-integrated processes and may not capture present-day connectivity between populations. Here, we use a high-resolution oceanographic circulation model to predict larval dispersal along the complex coastline of western Canada that includes the transition between two well-studied zoogeographic provinces. We simulate dispersal in a benthic sea star with a 6-10 week pelagic larval phase and test predictions of this model against previously observed genetic structure including a strong phylogeographic break within the zoogeographical transition zone. We also test predictions with new genetic sampling in a site within the phylogeographic break. We find that the coupled genetic and circulation model predicts the high degree of genetic structure observed in this species, despite its long pelagic duration. High genetic structure on this complex coastline can thus be explained through ocean circulation patterns, which tend to retain passive larvae within 20-50 km of their parents, suggesting a necessity for close-knit design of Marine Protected Area networks. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Monthly Precipitation Reconstruction of Ocean(PRECO)at Spatial Resolution of 2.5 degree.

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This global monthly precipitation analysis is called the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Precipitation Reconstruction (PREC). This analysis consists of two...

  4. Dynamics and predictability of a low-order wind-driven ocean - atmosphere model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vannitsem, Stéphane

    2013-04-01

    The dynamics of a low order coupled wind-driven Ocean-Atmosphere (OA) system is investigated with emphasis on its predictability properties. The low-order coupled deterministic system is composed of a baroclinic atmosphere for which 12 dominant dynamical modes are only retained (Charney and Straus, 1980) and a wind-driven, quasi-geostrophic and reduced-gravity shallow ocean whose field is truncated to four dominant modes able to reproduce the large scale oceanic gyres (Pierini, 2011). The two models are coupled through mechanical forcings only. The analysis of its dynamics reveals first that under aperiodic atmospheric forcings only dominant single gyres (clockwise or counterclockwise) appear. This feature is expected to be related with the specific domain choice over which the coupled system is defined. Second the dynamical quantities characterizing the short-term predictability (Lyapunov exponents, Lyapunov dimension, Kolmogorov-Sinaï (KS) entropy) displays a complex dependence as a function of the key parameters of the system, namely the coupling strength and the external thermal forcing. In particular, the KS-entropy is increasing as a function of the coupling in most of the experiments, implying an increase of the rate of loss of information about the localization of the system on his attractor. Finally the dynamics of the error is explored and indicates, in particular, a rich variety of short term behaviors of the error in the atmosphere depending on the (relative) amplitude of the initial error affecting the ocean, from polynomial (at2 + bt3 + ct4) up to purely exponential evolutions. These features are explained and analyzed in the light of the recent findings on error growth (Nicolis et al, 2009). References Charney J G, Straus DM (1980) Form-Drag Instability, Multiple Equilibria and Propagating Planetary Waves in Baroclinic, Orographically Forced, Planetary Wave Systems. J Atmos Sci 37: 1157-1176. Nicolis C, Perdigao RAP, Vannitsem S (2009) Dynamics of

  5. Predicting East African spring droughts using Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature indices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Funk

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available In southern Ethiopia, Eastern Kenya, and southern Somalia, poor boreal spring rains in 1999, 2000, 2004, 2007, 2008, 2009, and 2011 contributed to severe food insecurity and high levels of malnutrition. Predicting rainfall deficits in this region on seasonal and decadal time frames can help decision makers implement disaster risk reduction measures while guiding climate-smart adaptation and agricultural development. Building on recent research that links more frequent droughts in that region to a stronger Walker Circulation, warming in the Indo-Pacific warm pool, and an increased western Pacific sea surface temperature (SST gradient, we show that the two dominant modes of East African boreal spring rainfall variability are tied, respectively, to western-central Pacific and central Indian Ocean SST. Variations in these rainfall modes can be predicted using two previously defined SST indices – the West Pacific Gradient (WPG and Central Indian Ocean index (CIO, with the WPG and CIO being used, respectively, to predict the first and second rainfall modes. These simple indices can be used in concert with more sophisticated coupled modeling systems and land surface data assimilations to help inform early warning and guide climate outlooks.

  6. Predicting interactions among fishing, ocean warming, and ocean acidification in a marine system with whole-ecosystem models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffith, Gary P; Fulton, Elizabeth A; Gorton, Rebecca; Richardson, Anthony J

    2012-12-01

    An important challenge for conservation is a quantitative understanding of how multiple human stressors will interact to mitigate or exacerbate global environmental change at a community or ecosystem level. We explored the interaction effects of fishing, ocean warming, and ocean acidification over time on 60 functional groups of species in the southeastern Australian marine ecosystem. We tracked changes in relative biomass within a coupled dynamic whole-ecosystem modeling framework that included the biophysical system, human effects, socioeconomics, and management evaluation. We estimated the individual, additive, and interactive effects on the ecosystem and for five community groups (top predators, fishes, benthic invertebrates, plankton, and primary producers). We calculated the size and direction of interaction effects with an additive null model and interpreted results as synergistic (amplified stress), additive (no additional stress), or antagonistic (reduced stress). Individually, only ocean acidification had a negative effect on total biomass. Fishing and ocean warming and ocean warming with ocean acidification had an additive effect on biomass. Adding fishing to ocean warming and ocean acidification significantly changed the direction and magnitude of the interaction effect to a synergistic response on biomass. The interaction effect depended on the response level examined (ecosystem vs. community). For communities, the size, direction, and type of interaction effect varied depending on the combination of stressors. Top predator and fish biomass had a synergistic response to the interaction of all three stressors, whereas biomass of benthic invertebrates responded antagonistically. With our approach, we were able to identify the regional effects of fishing on the size and direction of the interacting effects of ocean warming and ocean acidification. ©2012 Society for Conservation Biology.

  7. Studies of Ocean Predictability at Decade to Century Time Scales Using a Global Ocean General Circulation Model in a Parallel Computing Environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barnett, T.P.

    1998-11-30

    The objectives of this report are to determine the structure of oceanic natural variability at time scales of decades to centuries, characterize the physical mechanisms responsible for the variability; determine the relative importance of heat, fresh water, and moment fluxes on the variability; determine the predictability of the variability on these times scales. (B204)

  8. Changing currents: a strategy for understanding and predicting the changing ocean circulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bryden, Harry L; Robinson, Carol; Griffiths, Gwyn

    2012-12-13

    Within the context of UK marine science, we project a strategy for ocean circulation research over the next 20 years. We recommend a focus on three types of research: (i) sustained observations of the varying and evolving ocean circulation, (ii) careful analysis and interpretation of the observed climate changes for comparison with climate model projections, and (iii) the design and execution of focused field experiments to understand ocean processes that are not resolved in coupled climate models so as to be able to embed these processes realistically in the models. Within UK-sustained observations, we emphasize smart, cost-effective design of the observational network to extract maximum information from limited field resources. We encourage the incorporation of new sensors and new energy sources within the operational environment of UK-sustained observational programmes to bridge the gap that normally separates laboratory prototype from operational instrument. For interpreting the climate-change records obtained through a variety of national and international sustained observational programmes, creative and dedicated UK scientists should lead efforts to extract the meaningful signals and patterns of climate change and to interpret them so as to project future changes. For the process studies, individual scientists will need to work together in team environments to combine observational and process modelling results into effective improvements in the coupled climate models that will lead to more accurate climate predictions.

  9. Stochastic modelling and predictability: analysis of a low-order coupled ocean-atmosphere model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vannitsem, Stéphane

    2014-06-28

    There is a growing interest in developing stochastic schemes for the description of processes that are poorly represented in atmospheric and climate models, in order to increase their variability and reduce the impact of model errors. The use of such noise could however have adverse effects by modifying in undesired ways a certain number of moments of their probability distributions. In this work, the impact of developing a stochastic scheme (based on stochastic averaging) for the ocean is explored in the context of a low-order coupled (deterministic) ocean-atmosphere system. After briefly analysing its variability, its ability in predicting the oceanic flow generated by the coupled system is investigated. Different phases in the error dynamics are found: for short lead times, an initial overdispersion of the ensemble forecast is present while the ensemble mean follows a dynamics reminiscent of the combined amplification of initial condition and model errors for deterministic systems; for longer lead times, a reliable diffusive ensemble spread is observed. These different phases are also found for ensemble-oriented skill measures like the Brier score and the rank histogram. The implications of these features on building stochastic models are then briefly discussed.

  10. Predicting Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Modes with a Climate Modeling Hierarchy -- Final Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Michael Ghil, UCLA; Andrew W. Robertson, IRI, Columbia Univ.; Sergey Kravtsov, U. of Wisconsin, Milwaukee; Padhraic Smyth, UC Irvine

    2006-08-04

    The goal of the project was to determine midlatitude climate predictability associated with tropical-extratropical interactions on interannual-to-interdecadal time scales. Our strategy was to develop and test a hierarchy of climate models, bringing together large GCM-based climate models with simple fluid-dynamical coupled ocean-ice-atmosphere models, through the use of advanced probabilistic network (PN) models. PN models were used to develop a new diagnostic methodology for analyzing coupled ocean-atmosphere interactions in large climate simulations made with the NCAR Parallel Climate Model (PCM), and to make these tools user-friendly and available to other researchers. We focused on interactions between the tropics and extratropics through atmospheric teleconnections (the Hadley cell, Rossby waves and nonlinear circulation regimes) over both the North Atlantic and North Pacific, and the ocean’s thermohaline circulation (THC) in the Atlantic. We tested the hypothesis that variations in the strength of the THC alter sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic, and that the latter influence the atmosphere in high latitudes through an atmospheric teleconnection, feeding back onto the THC. The PN model framework was used to mediate between the understanding gained with simplified primitive equations models and multi-century simulations made with the PCM. The project team is interdisciplinary and built on an existing synergy between atmospheric and ocean scientists at UCLA, computer scientists at UCI, and climate researchers at the IRI.

  11. Dynamics and predictability of a low-order wind-driven ocean-atmosphere coupled model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vannitsem, Stéphane

    2014-04-01

    The dynamics of a low-order coupled wind-driven ocean-atmosphere system is investigated with emphasis on its predictability properties. The low-order coupled deterministic system is composed of a baroclinic atmosphere for which 12 dominant dynamical modes are only retained (Charney and Straus in J Atmos Sci 37:1157-1176, 1980) and a wind-driven, quasi-geostrophic and reduced-gravity shallow ocean whose field is truncated to four dominant modes able to reproduce the large scale oceanic gyres (Pierini in J Phys Oceanogr 41:1585-1604, 2011). The two models are coupled through mechanical forcings only. The analysis of its dynamics reveals first that under aperiodic atmospheric forcings only dominant single gyres (clockwise or counterclockwise) appear, while for periodic atmospheric solutions the double gyres emerge. In the present model domain setting context, this feature is related to the level of truncation of the atmospheric fields, as indicated by a preliminary analysis of the impact of higher wavenumber ("synoptic" scale) modes on the development of oceanic gyres. In the latter case, double gyres appear in the presence of a chaotic atmosphere. Second the dynamical quantities characterizing the short-term predictability (Lyapunov exponents, Lyapunov dimension, Kolmogorov-Sinaï (KS) entropy) displays a complex dependence as a function of the key parameters of the system, namely the coupling strength and the external thermal forcing. In particular, the KS-entropy is increasing as a function of the coupling in most of the experiments, implying an increase of the rate of loss of information about the localization of the system on its attractor. Finally the dynamics of the error is explored and indicates, in particular, a rich variety of short term behaviors of the error in the atmosphere depending on the (relative) amplitude of the initial error affecting the ocean, from polynomial ( at 2 + bt 3 + ct 4) up to exponential-like evolutions. These features are explained

  12. Long-Term Predictions of Global Climate Using the Ocean Conveyor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ray, P.; Wilson, J.R.

    2003-01-01

    Many have attributed the Great Ocean Conveyor as a major driver of global climate change over millennia as well as a possible explanation for shorter (multidecadal) oscillations. The conveyor is thought to have a cycle time on the order of 1000 years, however recent research has suggested that it is much faster than previously believed (about 100 years). A faster conveyor leads to the possibility of the conveyor's role in even shorter oscillations such as the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The conveyor is primarily density driven. In this study the salty outflow of the Red Sea is used to predict its behavior ten years into the future. A successful model could lead to a long-term prediction (ten years) of El Ninos, Atlantic hurricane season intensity, as well as global temperature and precipitation patterns.

  13. Climate variability and predictability associated with the Indo-Pacific Oceanic Channel Dynamics in the CCSM4 Coupled System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Dongliang; Xu, Peng; Xu, Tengfei

    2017-01-01

    An experiment using the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4), a participant of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase-5 (CMIP5), is analyzed to assess the skills of this model in simulating and predicting the climate variabilities associated with the oceanic channel dynamics across the Indo-Pacific Oceans. The results of these analyses suggest that the model is able to reproduce the observed lag correlation between the oceanic anomalies in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean and those in the cold tongue in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean at a time lag of 1 year. This success may be largely attributed to the successful simulation of the interannual variations of the Indonesian Throughflow, which carries the anomalies of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) into the western equatorial Pacific Ocean to produce subsurface temperature anomalies, which in turn propagate to the eastern equatorial Pacific to generate ENSO. This connection is termed the "oceanic channel dynamics" and is shown to be consistent with the observational analyses. However, the model simulates a weaker connection between the IOD and the interannual variability of the Indonesian Throughflow transport than found in the observations. In addition, the model overestimates the westerly wind anomalies in the western-central equatorial Pacific in the year following the IOD, which forces unrealistic upwelling Rossby waves in the western equatorial Pacific and downwelling Kelvin waves in the east. This assessment suggests that the CCSM4 coupled climate system has underestimated the oceanic channel dynamics and overestimated the atmospheric bridge processes.

  14. Regional boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation over Indian Ocean and Western Pacific: comparison and predictability study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sun-Seon; Wang, Bin

    2016-04-01

    The boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) has two major activity centers, the northern Indian Ocean and tropical Western North Pacific, which dominate the monsoon intraseasonal variability over South Asia and East Asia, respectively. The spatial-temporal structures of BSISO over the Indian Ocean (10°S-30°N, 60°-105°E) (IOISO) and Western Pacific (10°S-30°N, 105°-150°E) (WPISO) are examined by corresponding the leading modes of daily OLR and 850-hPa zonal wind (U850). The IOISO features a northeastward propagation with a 30-45 days energy peak and the first principal component (PC1) has maximum variance in May, while the WPISO propagates northward with a broad spectral peak on 10-60 days and the PC1 has maximum variance in August. Because of the large regional differences, two regional indices, the IOISO index and WPISO index, are defined by their corresponding first two leading PCs. The combined IOISO-WPISO index captures about 30 % (10 %) of U850 (OLR) daily variance over the entire IO-WP region (10°S-30°N, 60°-150°E), which doubles that captured by the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) index (Wheeler and Hendon 2004) and is 50 % higher than that captured by the BSISO index (Lee et al. 2013). The combined index also shows superior performance in representing biweekly and pentad-mean variations in the Asian-Pacific summer monsoon region (north of 10°N). The predictability/prediction skill and simulated principal modes of two regional BSISO indices are explored by using data derived from the Intraseasonal Variability Hindcast Experiment project. The major regional modes are reasonably well captured, but the forecasted fractional variances of the leading modes and variability center's locations exhibit significant deficiencies. The multi-model mean estimate of the predictability is 40-45 days for the IOISO index, whereas 33-37 days for the WPISO index. The less predictable WPISO is likely due to the existence of its significant biweekly component

  15. Ocean current estimation using a Multi-Model Ensemble Kalman Filter during the Grand Lagrangian Deployment experiment (GLAD)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coelho, Emanuel F.; Hogan, P.; Jacobs, G.; Thoppil, P.; Huntley, H. S.; Haus, B. K.; Lipphardt, B. L.; Kirwan, A. D.; Ryan, E. H.; Olascoaga, J.; Beron-Vera, F.; Poje, A. C.; Griffa, A.; Özgökmen, T. M.; Mariano, A. J.; Novelli, G.; Haza, A. C.; Bogucki, D.; Chen, S. S.; Curcic, M.; Iskandarani, M.; Judt, F.; Laxague, N.; Reniers, A. J. H. M.; Valle-Levinson, A.; Wei, M.

    2015-03-01

    In the summer and fall of 2012, during the GLAD experiment in the Gulf of Mexico, the Consortium for Advanced Research on Transport of Hydrocarbon in the Environment (CARTHE) used several ocean models to assist the deployment of more than 300 surface drifters. The Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM) at 1 km and 3 km resolutions, the US Navy operational NCOM at 3 km resolution (AMSEAS), and two versions of the Hybrid Coordinates Ocean Model (HYCOM) set at 4 km were running daily and delivering 72-h range forecasts. They all assimilated remote sensing and local profile data but they were not assimilating the drifter's observations. This work presents a non-intrusive methodology named Multi-Model Ensemble Kalman Filter that allows assimilating the local drifter data into such a set of models, to produce improved ocean currents forecasts. The filter is to be used when several modeling systems or ensembles are available and/or observations are not entirely handled by the operational data assimilation process. It allows using generic in situ measurements over short time windows to improve the predictability of local ocean dynamics and associated high-resolution parameters of interest for which a forward model exists (e.g. oil spill plumes). Results can be used for operational applications or to derive enhanced background fields for other data assimilation systems, thus providing an expedite method to non-intrusively assimilate local observations of variables with complex operators. Results for the GLAD experiment show the method can improve water velocity predictions along the observed drifter trajectories, hence enhancing the skills of the models to predict individual trajectories.

  16. Development of an ensemble prediction system for ocean surface waves in a coastal area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Behrens, Arno

    2015-04-01

    An ensemble prediction system for ocean surface waves has been developed and applied on a local scale to the German Bight and the western Baltic Sea. U10-wind fields generated by the COSMO-DE-EPS upstream forecast chain of the German Met Service (DWD: Deutscher Wetterdienst) have been used as the driving force for the third-generation spectral wave model WAM. The atmospheric chain includes four different global models that provide boundary values for four regional COSMO-EU realisations. Each of those drive five COSMO-DE members, respectively, with different sets of physical parameterisations, so that finally 20 members are available to run 20 corresponding wave ensemble members of the coastal wave model CWAM (Coastal WAve Model) for the German Bight and the western Baltic Sea. It is the first time that in an ensemble prediction system for ocean waves, an atmospheric model of such a fine spatial resolution of 2.8 km has been combined with a wave model running on a model grid with a mesh size of 900 m only. Test runs with the wave ensemble prediction system have been executed for two entire months (April 2013 and June 2014) and for an 8-day storm case (Xaver) in December 2013 in order to check whether such a system could be a reasonable step to improve the future operational wave forecasts of the DWD. The results computed by the different wave model members agree fairly well with available buoy data. The differences between the results for the integrated wave parameters of the individual members are small only, but more pronounced in extreme storm situations. Finally, the statistical analysis of the comparisons with measurements show without exception slightly improved values for the ensemble mean of the wave ensemble members compared with the usual deterministic routine control run.

  17. Predicting Effects of Ocean Acidification and Warming on Algae Lacking Carbon Concentrating Mechanisms.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Janet E Kübler

    Full Text Available Seaweeds that lack carbon-concentrating mechanisms are potentially inorganic carbon-limited under current air equilibrium conditions. To estimate effects of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and ocean acidification on photosynthetic rates, we modeled rates of photosynthesis in response to pCO2, temperature, and their interaction under limiting and saturating photon flux densities. We synthesized the available data for photosynthetic responses of red seaweeds lacking carbon-concentrating mechanisms to light and temperature. The model was parameterized with published data and known carbonate system dynamics. The model predicts that direction and magnitude of response to pCO2 and temperature, depend on photon flux density. At sub-saturating light intensities, photosynthetic rates are predicted to be low and respond positively to increasing pCO2, and negatively to increasing temperature. Consequently, pCO2 and temperature are predicted to interact antagonistically to influence photosynthetic rates at low PFD. The model predicts that pCO2 will have a much larger effect than temperature at sub-saturating light intensities. However, photosynthetic rates under low light will not increase proportionately as pCO2 in seawater continues to rise. In the range of light saturation (Ik, both CO2 and temperature have positive effects on photosynthetic rate and correspondingly strong predicted synergistic effects. At saturating light intensities, the response of photosynthetic rates to increasing pCO2 approaches linearity, but the model also predicts increased importance of thermal over pCO2 effects, with effects acting additively. Increasing boundary layer thickness decreased the effect of added pCO2 and, for very thick boundary layers, overwhelmed the effect of temperature on photosynthetic rates. The maximum photosynthetic rates of strictly CO2-using algae are low, so even large percentage increases in rates with climate change will not

  18. A Real-time, Coupled, Refined Forecasting System for Coastal Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armstrong, B. N.; Warner, J. C.; Signell, R. P.

    2010-12-01

    In the coastal zone, storms are one of the primary environmental forces causing coastal change. These discrete events often produce large waves, storm surges, and flooding, resulting in coastal erosion. In addition, strong storm-generated currents may pose threats to life, property, and navigation. The ability to predict these events, their location, duration, and magnitude allows resource managers to better prepare for the storm impacts as well as guide post-storm survey assessments and recovery efforts. As a step towards increasing our capability for prediction of these events and to help us study the physical processes that occur we have developed an automated system to run components of the Coupled Ocean - Atmosphere - Wave - Sediment Transport (COAWST) Modeling System as a daily forecast. The current daily system couples Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS) and Simulation Waves Nearshore (SWAN) models to predict currents, salinity, temperature, wave height and direction, and sediment transport for the US East Coast and Gulf of Mexico on a 5 km scale. As part of the system a refined grid for the area of Cape Hatteras, NC at a resolution of 1 km is included. Management of the system is controlled by the Windows Scheduler to start Matlab® and run scripts and functions. Data required by the modeling system include daily modeled wave, wind, atmospheric surface inputs, and climatology fields. The Unidata Internet Data Distribution/Local Data Manager (http://www.unidata.ucar.edu/software/ldm/) is used to download National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) GFS global 5 degree data and NCEP NAM Conus 12km data to a local server. The Matlab “structs” tool and NJ-Toolbox (http://njtbx.sourceforge.net/njdocs/njtbxhelp/njtbxhelp.html) are used to access these large data sets on the local server as well as Wave Watch 3 (WW3) and NCEP model data sets available remotely on the Nomads http://nomads.ncep.noaa.gov site and Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) data

  19. Predicting bycatch hotspots for endangered leatherback turtles on longlines in the Pacific Ocean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roe, John H; Morreale, Stephen J; Paladino, Frank V; Shillinger, George L; Benson, Scott R; Eckert, Scott A; Bailey, Helen; Tomillo, Pilar Santidrián; Bograd, Steven J; Eguchi, Tomoharu; Dutton, Peter H; Seminoff, Jeffrey A; Block, Barbara A; Spotila, James R

    2014-02-22

    Fisheries bycatch is a critical source of mortality for rapidly declining populations of leatherback turtles, Dermochelys coriacea. We integrated use-intensity distributions for 135 satellite-tracked adult turtles with longline fishing effort to estimate predicted bycatch risk over space and time in the Pacific Ocean. Areas of predicted bycatch risk did not overlap for eastern and western Pacific nesting populations, warranting their consideration as distinct management units with respect to fisheries bycatch. For western Pacific nesting populations, we identified several areas of high risk in the north and central Pacific, but greatest risk was adjacent to primary nesting beaches in tropical seas of Indo-Pacific islands, largely confined to several exclusive economic zones under the jurisdiction of national authorities. For eastern Pacific nesting populations, we identified moderate risk associated with migrations to nesting beaches, but the greatest risk was in the South Pacific Gyre, a broad pelagic zone outside national waters where management is currently lacking and may prove difficult to implement. Efforts should focus on these predicted hotspots to develop more targeted management approaches to alleviate leatherback bycatch.

  20. Coral mass spawning predicted by rapid seasonal rise in ocean temperature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keith, Sally A; Maynard, Jeffrey A; Edwards, Alasdair J; Guest, James R; Bauman, Andrew G; van Hooidonk, Ruben; Heron, Scott F; Berumen, Michael L; Bouwmeester, Jessica; Piromvaragorn, Srisakul; Rahbek, Carsten; Baird, Andrew H

    2016-05-11

    Coral spawning times have been linked to multiple environmental factors; however, to what extent these factors act as generalized cues across multiple species and large spatial scales is unknown. We used a unique dataset of coral spawning from 34 reefs in the Indian and Pacific Oceans to test if month of spawning and peak spawning month in assemblages of Acropora spp. can be predicted by sea surface temperature (SST), photosynthetically available radiation, wind speed, current speed, rainfall or sunset time. Contrary to the classic view that high mean SST initiates coral spawning, we found rapid increases in SST to be the best predictor in both cases (month of spawning: R(2) = 0.73, peak: R(2) = 0.62). Our findings suggest that a rapid increase in SST provides the dominant proximate cue for coral mass spawning over large geographical scales. We hypothesize that coral spawning is ultimately timed to ensure optimal fertilization success.

  1. Coral mass spawning predicted by rapid seasonal rise in ocean temperature

    KAUST Repository

    Keith, Sally A.

    2016-05-11

    Coral spawning times have been linked to multiple environmental factors; however, to what extent these factors act as generalized cues across multiple species and large spatial scales is unknown. We used a unique dataset of coral spawning from 34 reefs in the Indian and Pacific Oceans to test if month of spawning and peak spawning month in assemblages of Acropora spp. can be predicted by sea surface temperature (SST), photosynthetically available radiation, wind speed, current speed, rainfall or sunset time. Contrary to the classic view that high mean SST initiates coral spawning, we found rapid increases in SST to be the best predictor in both cases (month of spawning: R2 = 0.73, peak: R2 = 0.62). Our findings suggest that a rapid increase in SST provides the dominant proximate cue for coral mass spawning over large geographical scales. We hypothesize that coral spawning is ultimately timed to ensure optimal fertilization success.

  2. Exploring the Ocean Through Climate Indicators: What Do Research, Predictions, and Decision-makers Need to Know?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arrigo, J. S.

    2015-12-01

    There are several new and ongoing efforts around communicating climate and global change and variability by developing Climate Indicators (e.g. the US Global Change Research Project's Pilot Indicators Program, the US EPA's Climate Change Indicators, and the Ocean Observations Panel for Climate State of the Ocean indicators). Indicators provide information tailored to identified stakeholders and facilitate monitoring status, trends, extremes and variability of important climate features or processes. NOAA's Climate Monitoring program is in the middle of a three-year initiative toward supporting research toward the development of Ocean Climate Indicators for research, prediction, and decision makers. These indices combine ocean observations, climate data and products from platforms like (but not limited to) the drifting buoy, Argo, satellite, and buoy arrays that provide fundamental observations that contribute towards climate understanding, predictions, and projections. The program is supporting eight distinct projects that focus on primarily regional indices that target varied stakeholders and outreach strategies - from public awareness and education to targeted model performance improvement. This presentation will discuss the diverse set of projects, initial results, and discuss possibilities for and examples of using the indicators and processes for developing them for broader science outreach and education, with an eye toward the aim of organizing the ocean climate and observing community around developing a comprehensive ocean monitoring and indicators system.

  3. Ice–ocean coupled computations for sea-ice prediction to support ice navigation in Arctic sea routes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liyanarachchi Waruna Arampath De Silva

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available With the recent rapid decrease in summer sea ice in the Arctic Ocean extending the navigation period in the Arctic sea routes (ASR, the precise prediction of ice distribution is crucial for safe and efficient navigation in the Arctic Ocean. In general, however, most of the available numerical models have exhibited significant uncertainties in short-term and narrow-area predictions, especially in marginal ice zones such as the ASR. In this study, we predict short-term sea-ice conditions in the ASR by using a mesoscale eddy-resolving ice–ocean coupled model that explicitly treats ice floe collisions in marginal ice zones. First, numerical issues associated with collision rheology in the ice–ocean coupled model (ice–Princeton Ocean Model [POM] are discussed and resolved. A model for the whole of the Arctic Ocean with a coarser resolution (about 25 km was developed to investigate the performance of the ice–POM model by examining the reproducibility of seasonal and interannual sea-ice variability. It was found that this coarser resolution model can reproduce seasonal and interannual sea-ice variations compared to observations, but it cannot be used to predict variations over the short-term, such as one to two weeks. Therefore, second, high-resolution (about 2.5 km regional models were set up along the ASR to investigate the accuracy of short-term sea-ice predictions. High-resolution computations were able to reasonably reproduce the sea-ice extent compared to Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer–Earth Observing System satellite observations because of the improved expression of the ice–albedo feedback process and the ice–eddy interaction process.

  4. Predicting the Isotopic Composition of Subduction-Filtered Subducted Oceanic Crust and Sediment

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, W. M.

    2010-12-01

    The chemical and isotopic character of mantle plumes, which produce oceanic island volcanoes, are widely thought to reflect the presence of recycled oceanic crust and sediment. Isotopic systematics suggest the “cycle time” for this process is 1 Ga or longer, but it should be possible to use a simple mass balance approach to discern how the presently operating subduction zone filter affects the ratios of radioactive parent to radiogenic daughter isotopes. Simple uniformitarian assumptions can then be used to predict the present isotopic composition of anciently subducted lithosphere. Our underlying assumption in deciphering the subduction zone filter is that the flux of an element into the deep mantle is simply equal to the flux of element into the subduction zone less the flux of that element into subduction zone magmas. The former is readily calculated from published data. The latter can be calculated by estimating parental magma compositions, arc accretion rates, and the assumption that arc magma compositions differ from MORB only because of material derived from subducting crust and sediment. Using this approach for 8 intra-oceanic subduction zones, we find 73% of Th and Pb, 79% of U, 80% of Rb and Sr, 93% of Nd and 98% of Sm survive the subduction zone filter. The subduction zone filter systematically increases Sm/Nd ratios in all subduction zones, but the effect is small, with a weighted mean increase of 1.5%. The effect of subduction is to decrease the Sm/Nd of the mantle, but only slightly. The effect of subduction is to increase the Rb/Sr of the mantle, but the subduction zone filter does not have a systematic effect on Rb/Sr ratios: it significantly increases in Rb/Sr in 3 subduction zones and significantly decreases it in one; the weighted mean shows no significant change. The effect of the subduction zone filter on U/Pb is also not systematic. U/Pb ratios in the mantle fluxes are bimodal, with values equal to or lower than the bulk Earth value in 4

  5. Marine biogeochemical influence on primary sea spray aerosol composition in the Southern Ocean: predictions from a mechanistic model

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCoy, D.; Burrows, S. M.; Elliott, S.; Frossard, A. A.; Russell, L. M.; Liu, X.; Ogunro, O. O.; Easter, R. C.; Rasch, P. J.

    2014-12-01

    Remote marine clouds, such as those over the Southern Ocean, are particularly sensitive to variations in the concentration and chemical composition of aerosols that serve as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). Observational evidence indicates that the organic content of fine marine aerosol is greatly increased during the biologically active season near strong phytoplankton blooms in certain locations, while being nearly constant in other locations. We have recently developed a novel modeling framework that mechanistically links the organic fraction of submicron sea spray to ocean biogeochemistry (Burrows et al., in discussion, ACPD, 2014; Elliott et al., ERL, 2014). Because of its combination of large phytoplankton blooms and high wind speeds, the Southern Ocean is an ideal location for testing our understanding of the processes driving the enrichment of organics in sea spray aerosol. Comparison of the simulated OM fraction with satellite observations shows that OM fraction is a statistically significant predictor of cloud droplet number concentration over the Southern Ocean. This presentation will focus on predictions from our modeling framework for the Southern Ocean, specifically, the predicted geographic gradients and seasonal cycles in the aerosol organic matter and its functional group composition. The timing and location of a Southern Ocean field campaign will determine its utility in observing the effects of highly localized and seasonal phytoplankton blooms on aerosol composition and clouds. Reference cited: Burrows, S. M., Ogunro, O., Frossard, A. A., Russell, L. M., Rasch, P. J., and Elliott, S.: A physically-based framework for modelling the organic fractionation of sea spray aerosol from bubble film Langmuir equilibria, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 14, 5375-5443, doi:10.5194/acpd-14-5375-2014, 2014. Elliott, S., Burrows, S. M., Deal, C., Liu, X., Long, M., Ogunro, O., Russell, L. M., and Wingenter O.. "Prospects for simulating macromolecular surfactant

  6. The integration of remote sensing data into global weather prediction, wave forecasting, and ocean circulation computer based systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierson, W. J., Jr.

    1970-01-01

    Data from infrared imaging systems and satellite infrared spectrometer (SIRS) for determining sea surface temperature and the atmospheric structure in cloudless areas over the oceans are discussed. Although some interpretations differ, it is clear that simultaneous measurements of radar sea return and passive microwave temperature will provide estimates of the wind speed, and perhaps wind direction, over the oceans, especially in cloudless areas, for a wide range of wind speeds. The problem of integrating the data that would be obtained by a spacecraft, especially one with a combination radar-radiometer, into global analysis procedures for meteorological, wave, and oceanographic predictions is described.

  7. Seasonal prediction of tropical cyclone activity over the north Indian Ocean using three artificial neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nath, Sankar; Kotal, S. D.; Kundu, P. K.

    2016-12-01

    Three artificial neural network (ANN) methods, namely, multilayer perceptron (MLP), radial basis function (RBF) and generalized regression neural network (GRNN) are utilized to predict the seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the north Indian Ocean (NIO) during the post-monsoon season (October, November, December). The frequency of TC and large-scale climate variables derived from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset of resolution 2.5° × 2.5° were analyzed for the period 1971-2013. Data for the years 1971-2002 were used for the development of the models, which were tested with independent sample data for the year 2003-2013. Using the correlation analysis, the five large-scale climate variables, namely, geopotential height at 500 hPa, relative humidity at 500 hPa, sea-level pressure, zonal wind at 700 hPa and 200 hPa for the preceding month September, are selected as potential predictors of the post-monsoon season TC activity. The result reveals that all the three different ANN methods are able to provide satisfactory forecast in terms of the various metrics, such as root mean-square error (RMSE), standard deviation (SD), correlation coefficient ( r), and bias and index of agreement ( d). Additionally, leave-one-out cross validation (LOOCV) method is also performed and the forecast skill is evaluated. The results show that the MLP model is found to be superior to the other two models (RBF, GRNN). The (MLP) is expected to be very useful to operational forecasters for prediction of TC activity.

  8. Upper-Ocean Response to Hurricane Ivan in a 1/25 degree Nested Gulf of Mexico HYCOM

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-04-18

    the assimilation run [Browning and Kreiss, 1982, 1986] is used for the baro - agrees with the observations while the northern edge of LC tropic open...difference (see Kara et al. layers [ Martin , 1985] (2) the number of adjustable para- [2002] for details). Briefly, latent heat flux (QL) and sensible...202. computer time from the DoD High Performance Computer Modernization Martin , P. J. (1985), Simulation of the mixed layer at OWS November and Papa

  9. Ship accessibility predictions for the Arctic Ocean based on IPCC CO2 emission scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oh, Jai-Ho; Woo, Sumin; Yang, Sin-Il

    2017-02-01

    Changes in the extent of Arctic sea ice, which have resulted from climate change, offer new opportunities to use the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and Northwest Passage (NWP) for shipping. However, choosing to navigate the Arctic Ocean remains challenging due to the limited accessibility of ships and the balance between economic gain and potential risk. As a result, more precise and detailed information on both weather and sea ice change in the Arctic are required. In this study, a high-resolution global AGCM was used to provide detailed information on the extent and thickness of Arctic sea ice. For this simulation, we have simulated the AMIP-type simulation for the present-day climate during 31 years from 1979 to 2009 with observed SST and Sea Ice concentration. For the future climate projection, we have performed the historical climate during 1979-2005 and subsequently the future climate projection during 2010-2099 with mean of four CMIP5 models due to the two Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5). First, the AMIP-type simulation was evaluated by comparison with observations from the Hadley Centre sea-ice and Sea Surface Temperature (HadlSST) dataset. The model reflects the maximum (in March) and minimum (in September) sea ice extent and annual cycle. Based on this validation, the future sea ice extents show the decreasing trend for both the maximum and minimum seasons and RCP 8.5 shows more sharply decreasing patterns of sea ice than RCP 4.5. Under both scenarios, ships classified as Polar Class (PC) 3 and Open-Water (OW) were predicted to have the largest and smallest number of ship-accessible days (in any given year) for the NSR and NWP, respectively. Based on the RCP 8.5 scenario, the projections suggest that after 2070, PC3 and PC6 vessels will have year-round access across to the Arctic Ocean. In contrast, OW vessels will continue to have a seasonal handicap, inhibiting their ability to pass through the NSR and NWP.

  10. Oceanic circulation models help to predict global biogeography of pelagic yellow-bellied sea snake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brischoux, François; Cotté, Cédric; Lillywhite, Harvey B; Bailleul, Frédéric; Lalire, Maxime; Gaspar, Philippe

    2016-08-01

    It is well recognized that most marine vertebrates, and especially tetrapods, precisely orient and actively move in apparently homogeneous oceanic environments. Here, we investigate the presumptive role of oceanic currents in biogeographic patterns observed in a secondarily marine tetrapod, the yellow-bellied sea snake (Hydrophis [Pelamis] platurus). State-of-the-art world ocean circulation models show how H. platurus, the only pelagic species of sea snake, can potentially exploit oceanic currents to disperse and maintain population mixing between localities that spread over two-thirds of the Earth's circumference. The very close association of these snakes with surface currents seems to provide a highly efficient dispersal mechanism that allowed this species to range extensively and relatively quickly well beyond the central Indo-Pacific area, the centre of origin, abundance and diversity of sea snakes. Our results further suggest that the pan-oceanic population of this species must be extraordinarily large. © 2016 The Author(s).

  11. An Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System for Sea Level Prediction Considering Tide-Generating Forces and Oceanic Thermal Expansion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li-Ching Lin Hsien-Kuo Chang

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents an adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system for predicting sea level considering tide-generating forces and oceanic thermal expansion assuming a model of sea level dependence on sea surface temperature. The proposed model named TGFT-FN (Tide-Generating Forces considering sea surface Temperature and Fuzzy Neuro-network system is applied to predict tides at five tide gauge sites located in Taiwan and has the root mean square of error of about 7.3 - 15.0 cm. The capability of TGFT-FN model is superior in sea level prediction than the previous TGF-NN model developed by Chang and Lin (2006 that considers the tide-generating forces only. The TGFT-FN model is employed to train and predict the sea level of Hua-Lien station, and is also appropriate for the same prediction at the tide gauge sites next to Hua-Lien station.

  12. SAR202 Genomes from the Dark Ocean Predict Pathways for the Oxidation of Recalcitrant Dissolved Organic Matter.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landry, Zachary; Swan, Brandon K; Herndl, Gerhard J; Stepanauskas, Ramunas; Giovannoni, Stephen J

    2017-04-18

    Deep-ocean regions beyond the reach of sunlight contain an estimated 615 Pg of dissolved organic matter (DOM), much of which persists for thousands of years. It is thought that bacteria oxidize DOM until it is too dilute or refractory to support microbial activity. We analyzed five single-amplified genomes (SAGs) from the abundant SAR202 clade of dark-ocean bacterioplankton and found they encode multiple families of paralogous enzymes involved in carbon catabolism, including several families of oxidative enzymes that we hypothesize participate in the degradation of cyclic alkanes. The five partial genomes encoded 152 flavin mononucleotide/F420-dependent monooxygenases (FMNOs), many of which are predicted to be type II Baeyer-Villiger monooxygenases (BVMOs) that catalyze oxygen insertion into semilabile alicyclic alkanes. The large number of oxidative enzymes, as well as other families of enzymes that appear to play complementary roles in catabolic pathways, suggests that SAR202 might catalyze final steps in the biological oxidation of relatively recalcitrant organic compounds to refractory compounds that persist.IMPORTANCE Carbon in the ocean is massively sequestered in a complex mixture of biologically refractory molecules that accumulate as the chemical end member of biological oxidation and diagenetic change. However, few details are known about the biochemical machinery of carbon sequestration in the deep ocean. Reconstruction of the metabolism of a deep-ocean microbial clade, SAR202, led to postulation of new biochemical pathways that may be the penultimate stages of DOM oxidation to refractory forms that persist. These pathways are tied to a proliferation of oxidative enzymes. This research illuminates dark-ocean biochemistry that is broadly consequential for reconstructing the global carbon cycle. Copyright © 2017 Landry et al.

  13. New ERP predictions based on (sub-)daily ocean tides from satellite altimetry data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madzak, Matthias; Böhm, Sigrid; Böhm, Johannes; Bosch, Wolfgang; Schuh, Harald

    2013-04-01

    A new model for Earth rotation variations based on ocean tide models is highly desirable in order to close the gap between geophysical Earth rotation models and geodetic observations. We have started a project, SPOT (Short Period Ocean Tidal variations in Earth Rotation), with the goal to develop a new model of short period Earth rotation variations based on one of the best currently available empirical ocean tide models obtained from satellite altimetry. We employ the EOT11a model which is an upgrade of EOT08a, developed at DGFI, Munich. As EOT11a does not provide the tidal current velocities which are fundamental contributors to Earth rotation excitation, the calculation of current velocities from the tidal elevations is one of three main areas of research in project SPOT. The second key aspect is the conversion from ocean tidal angular momentum to the corresponding ERP variations using state-of-the-art transfer functions. A peculiar innovation at this step will be to consider the Earth's response to ocean tidal loading based on a realistic Earth model, including an anelastic mantle. The third part of the project deals with the introduction of the effect of minor tides. Ocean tide models usually only provide major semi-diurnal and diurnal tidal terms and the minor tides have to be inferred through admittance assumptions. Within the proposed project, selected minor tidal terms and the corresponding ERP variations shall be derived directly from satellite altimetry data. We determine ocean tidal angular momentum of four diurnal and five sub-daily tides from EOT11a and apply the angular momentum approach to derive a new model of ocean tidal Earth rotation variations. This poster gives a detailed description of project SPOT as well as the status of work progress. First results are presented as well.

  14. Predicting the Response of Molluscs to the Impact of Ocean Acidification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Laura M.; Ross, Pauline M.; O’Connor, Wayne A.; Pörtner, Hans O.; Scanes, Elliot; Wright, John M.

    2013-01-01

    Elevations in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) are anticipated to acidify oceans because of fundamental changes in ocean chemistry created by CO2 absorption from the atmosphere. Over the next century, these elevated concentrations of atmospheric CO2 are expected to result in a reduction of the surface ocean waters from 8.1 to 7.7 units as well as a reduction in carbonate ion (CO32−) concentration. The potential impact that this change in ocean chemistry will have on marine and estuarine organisms and ecosystems is a growing concern for scientists worldwide. While species-specific responses to ocean acidification are widespread across a number of marine taxa, molluscs are one animal phylum with many species which are particularly vulnerable across a number of life-history stages. Molluscs make up the second largest animal phylum on earth with 30,000 species and are a major producer of CaCO3. Molluscs also provide essential ecosystem services including habitat structure and food for benthic organisms (i.e., mussel and oyster beds), purification of water through filtration and are economically valuable. Even sub lethal impacts on molluscs due to climate changed oceans will have serious consequences for global protein sources and marine ecosystems. PMID:24832802

  15. Predicting the response of molluscs to the impact of ocean acidification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Laura M; Ross, Pauline M; O'Connor, Wayne A; Pörtner, Hans O; Scanes, Elliot; Wright, John M

    2013-04-02

    Elevations in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) are anticipated to acidify oceans because of fundamental changes in ocean chemistry created by CO2 absorption from the atmosphere. Over the next century, these elevated concentrations of atmospheric CO2 are expected to result in a reduction of the surface ocean waters from 8.1 to 7.7 units as well as a reduction in carbonate ion (CO32-) concentration. The potential impact that this change in ocean chemistry will have on marine and estuarine organisms and ecosystems is a growing concern for scientists worldwide. While species-specific responses to ocean acidification are widespread across a number of marine taxa, molluscs are one animal phylum with many species which are particularly vulnerable across a number of life-history stages. Molluscs make up the second largest animal phylum on earth with 30,000 species and are a major producer of CaCO3. Molluscs also provide essential ecosystem services including habitat structure and food for benthic organisms (i.e., mussel and oyster beds), purification of water through filtration and are economically valuable. Even sub lethal impacts on molluscs due to climate changed oceans will have serious consequences for global protein sources and marine ecosystems.

  16. Predicting the Response of Molluscs to the Impact of Ocean Acidification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John M. Wright

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Elevations in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2 are anticipated to acidify oceans because of fundamental changes in ocean chemistry created by CO2 absorption from the atmosphere. Over the next century, these elevated concentrations of atmospheric CO2 are expected to result in a reduction of the surface ocean waters from 8.1 to 7.7 units as well as a reduction in carbonate ion (CO32− concentration. The potential impact that this change in ocean chemistry will have on marine and estuarine organisms and ecosystems is a growing concern for scientists worldwide. While species-specific responses to ocean acidification are widespread across a number of marine taxa, molluscs are one animal phylum with many species which are particularly vulnerable across a number of life-history stages. Molluscs make up the second largest animal phylum on earth with 30,000 species and are a major producer of CaCO3. Molluscs also provide essential ecosystem services including habitat structure and food for benthic organisms (i.e., mussel and oyster beds, purification of water through filtration and are economically valuable. Even sub lethal impacts on molluscs due to climate changed oceans will have serious consequences for global protein sources and marine ecosystems.

  17. Coupled Ocean-Acoustic Prediction of Transmission Loss in a Continental Shelfbreak Region: Predictive Skill, Uncertainty Quantification and Dynamical Sensitivities

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    DRAFT 21 Pierre F.J. Lermusiaux received B.&M. in Mech. Eng. degrees (highest honors and Jurybs congratulations) from Liege University, Liege , Belgium...awarded a Doherty Associate Professorship in Ocean Utilization by MIT in 2009. He is a member of the Association of Engineers of Liege University...Friends of the University of Liege , Royal Meteorological Society, American Geophysical Union, Oceanography Society, American Association for the

  18. Snapshot prediction of carbon productivity, carbon and protein content in a Southern Ocean diatom using FTIR spectroscopy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sackett, Olivia; Petrou, Katherina; Reedy, Brian; Hill, Ross; Doblin, Martina; Beardall, John; Ralph, Peter; Heraud, Philip

    2016-02-01

    Diatoms, an important group of phytoplankton, bloom annually in the Southern Ocean, covering thousands of square kilometers and dominating the region's phytoplankton communities. In their role as the major food source to marine grazers, diatoms supply carbon, nutrients and energy to the Southern Ocean food web. Prevailing environmental conditions influence diatom phenotypic traits (for example, photophysiology, macromolecular composition and morphology), which in turn affect the transfer of energy, carbon and nutrients to grazers and higher trophic levels, as well as oceanic biogeochemical cycles. The paucity of phenotypic data on Southern Ocean phytoplankton limits our understanding of the ecosystem and how it may respond to future environmental change. Here we used a novel approach to create a 'snapshot' of cell phenotype. Using mass spectrometry, we measured nitrogen (a proxy for protein), total carbon and carbon-13 enrichment (carbon productivity), then used this data to build spectroscopy-based predictive models. The models were used to provide phenotypic data for samples from a third sample set. Importantly, this approach enabled the first ever rate determination of carbon productivity from a single time point, circumventing the need for time-series measurements. This study showed that Chaetoceros simplex was less productive and had lower protein and carbon content during short-term periods of high salinity. Applying this new phenomics approach to natural phytoplankton samples could provide valuable insight into understanding phytoplankton productivity and function in the marine system.

  19. THE IMPACT OF INITIAL FORCED WIND ON THE PREDICTABILITY OF THE ZEBIAK-CANE COUPLED OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE MODEL

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YUE Cai-jun; LU Wei-song; LI Qing-quan

    2006-01-01

    With simultaneous observed sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA), the difference between NCEP/NCAR 925hPa reanalysis wind stress anomaly (NCEPWSA) and FSU wind stress anomaly (FSUWSA) is analyzed, and the prediction abilities of Zebiak-Cane coupled ocean-atmosphere model (ZC coupled model) with NCEPWSA and FSUWSA serving respectively as initialization wind are compared. The results are as follows.The distribution feature of NCEPWSA matches better with that of the observed SSTA than counterpart of FSUWSA both in 1980s and in 1990s; The ZC ocean model has a better skill under the forcing of NCEPWSA than that of FSUWSA, especially in 1990s. Meanwhile, the forecast abilities of the ZC coupled model in 1990s as well as in 1980s have been improved employing NCEPWSA as initialization wind instead of FSUWSA.Particularly, it succeeded in predicting 1997/1998 El Ni(n)o 6 to 8 months ahead; further analysis shows that on the antecedent and onset stages of the 1997/1998 El Ni(n)o event, the horizontal cold and warm distribution characteristics of the simulated SSTA from ZC ocean model, with NCEPWSA forcing compared to FSUWSA forcing, match better with counterparts of the corresponding observed SSTA, whereby providing better predication initialization conditions for ZC coupled model, which, in turn, is favorable to improve the forecast ability of the coupled model.

  20. CHANGES IN THE C, N AND P CYCLES BY THE PREDICTED SALPS-KRILL SHIFT IN THE SOUTHERN OCEAN.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miquel eAlcaraz

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The metabolic carbon requirements and excretion rates of three major zooplankton groups in the Southern Ocean were studied in February 2009. The research was conducted in the framework of the ATOS research project as part of the Spanish contribution to the International Polar Year. The objective was to ascertain the possible consequences of the predicted zooplankton shift from krill to salps in the Southern Ocean for the cycling of biogenic carbon and the concentration and stoichiometry of dissolved inorganic nutrients. The carbon respiratory demands and NH4-N and PO4-P excretion rates of < 5 mm size copepods, krill and salps were estimated by incubation experiments. The carbon-specific metabolic rates and N:P metabolic quotients of salps were higher than those of krill (furcilia spp. and adults and copepods, and as expected there was a significant negative relation between average individual zooplankton biomass and their metabolic rates, each metabolic process showing a particular response that lead to different metabolic N:P ratios. The predicted change from krill to salps in the Southern Ocean would encompass not only the substitution of a pivotal group for Antarctic food webs (krill by one with an indifferent trophic role (salps. In a zooplankton community dominated by salps the respiratory carbon demand by zooplankton will significantly increase, and therefore the proportion of primary production that should be allocated to compensate for the global respiratory C-losses of zooplankton. At the same time, the higher production by salps of larger, faster sinking fecal pellets will increase the sequestration rate of biogenic carbon. Similarly, the higher N and P excretion rates of zooplankton and the changes in the N:P stoichiometry of the metabolic products will modify the concentration and proportion of N and P in the nutrient pool, inducing quantitative and qualitative changes on primary producers that will translate to the whole Southern

  1. Reconstruction and deterministic prediction of ocean waves from synthetic radar images

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wijaya, Andreas Parama

    2017-01-01

    A marine X-band radar is a device that scans the surrounding ocean waves up to distances of some 2 km. A rotating antenna emits electromagnetic beams that are reflected at the water surface and partly received by the antenna and stored as intensity plots every radar rotation time. The coverage of a

  2. ATOP - The Advanced Taiwan Ocean Prediction System Based on the mpiPOM. Part 1: Model Descriptions, Analyses and Results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leo Oey

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available A data-assimilated Taiwan Ocean Prediction (ATOP system is being developed at the National Central University, Taiwan. The model simulates sea-surface height, three-dimensional currents, temperature and salinity and turbulent mixing. The model has options for tracer and particle-tracking algorithms, as well as for wave-induced Stokes drift and wave-enhanced mixing and bottom drag. Two different forecast domains have been tested: a large-grid domain that encompasses the entire North Pacific Ocean at 0.1° × 0.1° horizontal resolution and 41 vertical sigma levels, and a smaller western North Pacific domain which at present also has the same horizontal resolution. In both domains, 25-year spin-up runs from 1988 - 2011 were first conducted, forced by six-hourly Cross-Calibrated Multi-Platform (CCMP and NCEP reanalysis Global Forecast System (GSF winds. The results are then used as initial conditions to conduct ocean analyses from January 2012 through February 2012, when updated hindcasts and real-time forecasts begin using the GFS winds. This paper describes the ATOP system and compares the forecast results against satellite altimetry data for assessing model skills. The model results are also shown to compare well with observations of (i the Kuroshio intrusion in the northern South China Sea, and (ii subtropical counter current. Review and comparison with other models in the literature of ¡§(i¡¨ are also given.

  3. Causes and Predictability of the Negative Indian Ocean Dipole and Its Impact on La Niña During 2016.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Eun-Pa; Hendon, Harry H

    2017-10-03

    In the latter half of 2016 Indonesia and Australia experienced extreme wet conditions and East Africa suffered devastating drought, which have largely been attributed to the occurrence of strong negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and weak La Niña. Here we examine the causes and predictability of the strong negative IOD and its impact on the development of La Niña in 2016. Analysis on atmosphere and ocean reanalyses and forecast sensitivity experiments using the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's dynamical seasonal forecast system reveals that this strong negative IOD, which peaked in July-September, developed primarily by the Indian Ocean surface and subsurface conditions. The long-term trend over the last 55 years in sea surface and subsurface temperatures, which is characterised by warming of the tropical Indian and western Pacific and cooling in the equatorial eastern Pacific, contributed positively to the extraordinary strength of this IOD. We further show that the strong negative IOD was a key promoter of the weak La Niña of 2016. Without the remote forcing from the IOD, this weak La Niña may have been substantially weaker because of the extraordinarily long-lasting warm surface condition over the dateline from the tail end of strong El Niño of 2015-16.

  4. Do Assimilated Drifter Velocities Improve Lagrangian Predictability in an Operational Ocean Model?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-05-01

    mass field, thus influencing only the baro - tropic component of the flow, their impact on trajectory forecast skill is unclear. In addition, SSH...the U.S. Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM), a free- surface primitive equation model that uses hybrid gen- eralized vertical coordinates ( Martin 2000...method for assimilation of Lagrangian data.Mon.Wea. Rev., 131, 2247–2260, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(2003)131,2247:AMFAOL.2.0.CO;2. Martin , P. J., 2000

  5. Data Assimilation Considerations for Improved Ocean Predictability During the Gulf of Mexico Grand Lagrangian Deployment (GLAD)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-09-16

    Matthew Gough d, Brian K. Haus d, Angelique C. Haza d, Robert W. Helber a, Patrick J. Hogan a, Helga S. Huntley g, Mohamed Iskandarani d, Falko Judt d, A.D... Hurricane Isaac inflicts damage on the observation system in lateAugust. The slowdegradationover time is G.A. Jacobs et al. / Ocean Modelling 83 (2014...deployment Large Scale Survey deployment Hurricane Isaac Inially over-zealous fishermen Fig. 3. The number of actively reporting GLAD surface drifters

  6. Improved atmosphere-ocean coupled modeling in the tropics for climate prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Minghua [State Univ. of New York (SUNY), Stony Brook, NY (United States)

    2015-01-01

    We investigated the initial development of the double ITCZ in the Community Climate System Model (CCSM Version 3) in the central Pacific. Starting from a resting initial condition of the ocean in January, the model developed a warm bias of sea-surface temperature (SST) in the central Pacific from 5oS to 10oS in the first three months. We found this initial bias to be caused by excessive surface shortwave radiation that is also present in the standalone atmospheric model. The initial bias is further amplified by biases in both surface latent heat flux and horizontal heat transport in the upper ocean. These biases are caused by the responses of surface winds to SST bias and the thermocline structure to surface wind curls. We also showed that the warming biases in surface solar radiation and latent heat fluxes are seasonally offset by cooling biases from reduced solar radiation after the austral summer due to cloud responses and in the austral fall due to enhanced evaporation when the maximum SST is closest to the equator. The warming biases from the dynamic heat transport by ocean currents however stay throughout all seasons once they are developed, which are eventually balanced by enhanced energy exchange and penetration of solar radiation below the mixed layer. Our results also showed that the equatorial cold tongue develops after the warm biases in the south central Pacific, and the overestimation of surface shortwave radiation recurs in the austral summer in each year.

  7. Ocean Data Assimilation in the Gulf of Mexico Using 3D VAR Approach - Preliminary Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paturi, S.; Garraffo, Z. D.; Cummings, J. A.; Rivin, I.; Mehra, A.; Kim, H. C.

    2016-12-01

    Approaches to ocean data assimilation vary widely, both in terms of the sophistication of the method and the observations assimilated.A three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) data assimilation system, part of the Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (NCODA) system developed at Navy Research Laboratory (NRL), is used for assimilating Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and Sea Surface Height (SSH) in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM). The NCODA 3DVAR produces simultaneous analyses of temperature, salinity, and vector velocity and uses all possible sources of ocean data observations.The Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) is used for the simulations, at 1/25o grid resolution for July 2011 period. After successful implementation of NCODA 3DVAR in the GoM, the system will be extended to the global ocean with the intent of making it operational.

  8. The Impact of Ocean Mixed Layer on Regional NWP Model around the Korea Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Min, Jae-Sik; Jee, Joon-Bum; Park, Jeong-Gyun; Lee, Hankyung; Lee, Jung-Hoon

    2017-04-01

    Ocean mixed layer (OML) affects diurnal cycle of sea surface temperature (SST) induced by change of solar radiation absorption and heat budget in ocean surface. The diurnal SST variation can lead to convection in ocean, which can impact on localized precipitation both over coastal and inland. In this study, we investigate The OML characteristics affecting the diurnal cycle of SST for the Korea Peninsula and surrounding areas. To analyze OML characteristics, HYCOM oceanic mixed layer depth (MLD) and 10 m wind fields of ERA-interim during the period of 2008-2016 are used. In the winter season, oceanic MLD is deeply formed when the strong wind field is formed perpendicular to continental slope over deep seafloor areas. Besides, cooling SST-induced vertical mixing in OML is reinforced by cold and dry air originated from Siberia. The OML in summer is shallowly distributed about 20 m over the analyzed areas. To estimate the impact of adapting OML model in high horizontal resolution (1 km) NWP model, four sensitivity tests are performed. At this time, the prognostic scheme of skin SST is applied in NWP to simulate diurnal SST variation. The simulation results of summer case show that CNTL (off-OML) overestimates diurnal SST variation, while EXPs (on-OML) indicate similar results to observations. And, the prediction of precipitation for the performance of EXPs shows improvement compared with CNTL over coastal as well as inland. In winter, on the other hand, there is no significant difference in CNTL and EXPs. The average heat budget at sea surface in February, which is the case period, is close to zero. As a results, it is considered that radiation balance at the sea surface occurs and diurnal SST variation due to net radiation in the prognostic scheme is small. This results suggest that the application of the OML model in the summer season properly that simulates diurnal SST variation, can contribute to improving the prediction for performance of SST and precipitation

  9. Decadal prediction skill in the ocean with surface nudging in the IPSL-CM5A-LR climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mignot, Juliette; García-Serrano, Javier; Swingedouw, Didier; Germe, Agathe; Nguyen, Sébastien; Ortega, Pablo; Guilyardi, Eric; Ray, Sulagna

    2016-08-01

    Two decadal prediction ensembles, based on the same climate model (IPSL-CM5A-LR) and the same surface nudging initialization strategy are analyzed and compared with a focus on upper-ocean variables in different regions of the globe. One ensemble consists of 3-member hindcasts launched every year since 1961 while the other ensemble benefits from 9 members but with start dates only every 5 years. Analysis includes anomaly correlation coefficients and root mean square errors computed against several reanalysis and gridded observational fields, as well as against the nudged simulation used to produce the hindcasts initial conditions. The last skill measure gives an upper limit of the predictability horizon one can expect in the forecast system, while the comparison with different datasets highlights uncertainty when assessing the actual skill. Results provide a potential prediction skill (verification against the nudged simulation) beyond the linear trend of the order of 10 years ahead at the global scale, but essentially associated with non-linear radiative forcings, in particular from volcanoes. At regional scale, we obtain 1 year in the tropical band, 10 years at midlatitudes in the North Atlantic and North Pacific, and 5 years at tropical latitudes in the North Atlantic, for both sea surface temperature (SST) and upper-ocean heat content. Actual prediction skill (verified against observational or reanalysis data) is overall more limited and less robust. Even so, large actual skill is found in the extratropical North Atlantic for SST and in the tropical to subtropical North Pacific for upper-ocean heat content. Results are analyzed with respect to the specific dynamics of the model and the way it is influenced by the nudging. The interplay between initialization and internal modes of variability is also analyzed for sea surface salinity. The study illustrates the importance of two key ingredients both necessary for the success of future coordinated decadal

  10. Prediction of tropical cyclone over North Indian Ocean using WRF model: sensitivity to scatterometer winds, ATOVS and ATMS radiances

    KAUST Repository

    Dodla, Venkata B.

    2016-05-03

    Tropical cyclone prediction, in terms of intensification and movement, is important for disaster management and mitigation. Hitherto, research studies were focused on this issue that lead to improvement in numerical models, initial data with data assimilation, physical parameterizations and application of ensemble prediction. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is the state-of-art model for cyclone prediction. In the present study, prediction of tropical cyclone (Phailin, 2013) that formed in the North Indian Ocean (NIO) with and without data assimilation using WRF model has been made to assess impacts of data assimilation. WRF model was designed to have nested two domains of 15 and 5 km resolutions. In the present study, numerical experiments are made without and with the assimilation of scatterometer winds, and radiances from ATOVS and ATMS. The model performance was assessed in respect to the movement and intensification of cyclone. ATOVS data assimilation experiment had produced the best prediction with least errors less than 100 km up to 60 hours and producing pre-deepening and deepening periods accurately. The Control and SCAT wind assimilation experiments have shown good track but the errors were 150-200 km and gradual deepening from the beginning itself instead of sudden deepening.

  11. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 1998-03 (NODC Accession 0001531)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  12. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2005-12 (NODC Accession 0002659)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  13. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2005-06 (NODC Accession 0002406)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  14. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 1997-07 (NODC Accession 0001523)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  15. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 1997-09 (NODC Accession 0001525)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  16. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 1997-04 (NODC Accession 0001520)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  17. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 1997-06 (NODC Accession 0001522)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  18. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 1998-05 (NODC Accession 0001533)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  19. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 1997-03 (NODC Accession 0001519)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  20. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 1999-05 (NODC Accession 0001545)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  1. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2006-10 (NODC Accession 0043271)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  2. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2006-03 (NODC Accession 0002742)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  3. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 1998-04 (NODC Accession 0001532)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  4. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 1997-11 (NODC Accession 0001527)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  5. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2006-09 (NODC Accession 0043270)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  6. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 1999-10 (NODC Accession 0001550)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  7. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2006-12 (NODC Accession 0043273)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  8. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2000-02 (NODC Accession 0001554)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  9. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 1999-09 (NODC Accession 0001549)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  10. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 1999-02 (NODC Accession 0001542)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  11. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 1998-02 (NODC Accession 0001530)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  12. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2002-11 (NODC Accession 0001587)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  13. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2001-05 (NODC Accession 0001569)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  14. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 1997-08 (NODC Accession 0001524)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  15. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 1998-01 (NODC Accession 0001529)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  16. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2004-03 (NODC Accession 0001603)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  17. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2007-05 (NODC Accession 0043281)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  18. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2001-07 (NODC Accession 0001571)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  19. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 1997-05 (NODC Accession 0001521)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  20. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2001-04 (NODC Accession 0001568)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  1. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2000-07 (NODC Accession 0001559)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  2. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2003-03 (NODC Accession 0001591)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  3. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2007-08 (NODC Accession 0043284)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  4. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2000-10 (NODC Accession 0001562)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  5. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 1997-01 (NODC Accession 0001517)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  6. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2005-03 (NODC Accession 0002162)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  7. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2006-04 (NODC Accession 0043262)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  8. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2002-01 (NODC Accession 0001577)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  9. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2002-12 (NODC Accession 0001588)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  10. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2001-09 (NODC Accession 0001573)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  11. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2001-01 (NODC Accession 0001565)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  12. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2005-08 (NODC Accession 0002504)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  13. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2003-02 (NODC Accession 0001590)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  14. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2007-06 (NODC Accession 0043282)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  15. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2002-07 (NODC Accession 0001583)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  16. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2000-08 (NODC Accession 0001560)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  17. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2006-08 (NODC Accession 0043268)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  18. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2002-09 (NODC Accession 0001585)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  19. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2000-06 (NODC Accession 0001558)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  20. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2006-07 (NODC Accession 0043267)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  1. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2002-03 (NODC Accession 0001579)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  2. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2002-06 (NODC Accession 0001582)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  3. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2001-03 (NODC Accession 0001567)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  4. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 1999-11 (NODC Accession 0001551)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  5. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2006-01 (NODC Accession 0002660)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  6. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 1997-02 (NODC Accession 0001518)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  7. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2001-12 (NODC Accession 0001576)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  8. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2003-08 (NODC Accession 0001596)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  9. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2000-12 (NODC Accession 0001564)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  10. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2003-09 (NODC Accession 0001597)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  11. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2000-04 (NODC Accession 0001556)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  12. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2004-04 (NODC Accession 0001604)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  13. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2001-02 (NODC Accession 0001566)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  14. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2007-07 (NODC Accession 0043283)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  15. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2003-05 (NODC Accession 0001593)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  16. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2003-11 (NODC Accession 0001599)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  17. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2003-06 (NODC Accession 0001594)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  18. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2003-12 (NODC Accession 0001600)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  19. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2002-08 (NODC Accession 0001584)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  20. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2005-04 (NODC Accession 0002340)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  1. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2000-09 (NODC Accession 0001561)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  2. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2003-04 (NODC Accession 0001592)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  3. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2005-02 (NODC Accession 0002160)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  4. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2001-08 (NODC Accession 0001572)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  5. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2005-01 (NODC Accession 0002159)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  6. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2004-01 (NODC Accession 0001601)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  7. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2001-11 (NODC Accession 0001575)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  8. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2000-11 (NODC Accession 0001563)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  9. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2003-10 (NODC Accession 0001598)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  10. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2006-05 (NODC Accession 0043265)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  11. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2001-06 (NODC Accession 0001570)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  12. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2003-07 (NODC Accession 0001595)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  13. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 1998-07 (NODC Accession 0001535)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  14. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 1997-12 (NODC Accession 0001528)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  15. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2002-05 (NODC Accession 0001581)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  16. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2004-08 (NODC Accession 0002154)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  17. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2005-05 (NODC Accession 0002373)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  18. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2002-02 (NODC Accession 0001578)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  19. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2003-01 (NODC Accession 0001589)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  20. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2004-06 (NODC Accession 0002151)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  1. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2006-06 (NODC Accession 0043266)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  2. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2005-09 (NODC Accession 0002505)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  3. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 1997-10 (NODC Accession 0001526)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  4. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 1998-06 (NODC Accession 0001534)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  5. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 1999-08 (NODC Accession 0001548)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  6. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 1999-04 (NODC Accession 0001544)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  7. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 1999-07 (NODC Accession 0001547)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  8. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2004-02 (NODC Accession 0001602)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  9. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2002-10 (NODC Accession 0001586)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  10. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 1999-01 (NODC Accession 0001541)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  11. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 1998-12 (NODC Accession 0001540)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  12. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2002-04 (NODC Accession 0001580)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  13. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 1999-06 (NODC Accession 0001546)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  14. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 1999-03 (NODC Accession 0001543)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  15. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 1998-09 (NODC Accession 0001537)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  16. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2004-10 (NODC Accession 0002156)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  17. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 2005-11 (NODC Accession 0002652)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...

  18. Predictions and Studies with a One-Dimensional Ice/Ocean Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1987-04-01

    This polar mixed layer is represefited by a level-2 I S 1 S turbulent closure model (Mellor and Durbin , 1975; Clancy and Martin, 1981). This model...P. A. Durbin (1975). The Struc- ture and Dynamics of the Ocean Surface Mixed Layer. Journal of Physical Oceanography, v. 5, pp. 718-725.9. Re-ferences... algebraics let F X -fvg + ax + C u cose - C v sine ,X g ig g (AS) Y ug aY + C v cose + CUsie (A6) and V - f C sine (A-) III Next substituting Eqs. (A

  19. Accuracy of sea level predictions with lead time of one week: a comparison between Prognocean and MyOcean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swierczynska, Malgorzata; Mizinski, Bartlomiej; Niedzielski, Tomasz

    2015-04-01

    There exist several systems which produce sea level forecasts in real time, with lead times ranging from hours to two weeks in the future. One of the recently developed solutions is Prognocean, the system that has been built and implemented at the University of Wroclaw, Poland. Its main feature is that it uses simple time series models to predict sea level anomaly maps, and does it for lead times ranging from 1 to 14 days with daily update. The empirical data-based models are fitted in real time both to individual grids (polynomial-harmonic model, polynomial-harmonic model combined with autoregressive model, polynomial-harmonic model combined with threshold autoregressive model) and to numerous grids forming a spatial latitude x longitude window of 3˚ x 5˚ (polynomial-harmonic model combined with multivariate autoregressive model). Although their simplicity, the approaches have already been shown to produce sea level anomaly predictions of reasonable accuracy. However, none of the analyses targeted at the comparative study which would present the skills of the Prognocean system against a background of the performance of other systems that use physically-based models. This study aims to fill this gap by comparing Prognocean-based predictions for one week into the future with the corresponding prognoses calculated by MyOcean. The reader is provided with the objectively-calculated set of statistics, presented as maps, which describes prediction errors (mean absolute error, root mean square error, index of agreement) and prediction skills (prediction efficiency, coefficient of determination) of the two systems. The exercise enables to compare the skills of the approaches, and the gridwise comparison allows one to identify areas of superior performance of each system.

  20. Climate extremes in the Pacific: improving seasonal prediction of tropical cyclones and extreme ocean temperatures to improve resilience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuleshov, Y.; Jones, D.; Spillman, C. M.

    2012-04-01

    Climate change and climate extremes have a major impact on Australia and Pacific Island countries. Of particular concern are tropical cyclones and extreme ocean temperatures, the first being the most destructive events for terrestrial systems, while the latter has the potential to devastate ocean ecosystems through coral bleaching. As a practical response to climate change, under the Pacific-Australia Climate Change Science and Adaptation Planning program (PACCSAP), we are developing enhanced web-based information tools for providing seasonal forecasts for climatic extremes in the Western Pacific. Tropical cyclones are the most destructive weather systems that impact on coastal areas. Interannual variability in the intensity and distribution of tropical cyclones is large, and presently greater than any trends that are ascribable to climate change. In the warming environment, predicting tropical cyclone occurrence based on historical relationships, with predictors such as sea surface temperatures (SSTs) now frequently lying outside of the range of past variability meaning that it is not possible to find historical analogues for the seasonal conditions often faced by Pacific countries. Elevated SSTs are the primary trigger for mass coral bleaching events, which can lead to widespread damage and mortality on reef systems. Degraded coral reefs present many problems, including long-term loss of tourism and potential loss or degradation of fisheries. The monitoring and prediction of thermal stress events enables the support of a range of adaptive and management activities that could improve reef resilience to extreme conditions. Using the climate model POAMA (Predictive Ocean-Atmosphere Model for Australia), we aim to improve accuracy of seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone activity and extreme SSTs for the regions of Western Pacific. Improved knowledge of extreme climatic events, with the assistance of tailored forecast tools, will help enhance the resilience and

  1. Using annually-resolved bivalve records and biogeochemical models to understand and predict climate impacts in coastal oceans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmes, Sarah

    2017-04-01

    It is more important than ever to study the oceans and especially the shelf seas, which are disproportionately productive, sustaining over 90% of global fisheries . The economic and societal significance of these shallow oceans, as the interface through which society interacts with the marine environment, makes them highly relevant to the decisions of policy-makers and stakeholders. These decision-makers rely upon empirical data informed by consistent and extensive monitoring and assessment from experts in the field, yet long-term, spatially-extensive datasets of the marine environment do not exist or are of poor quality. Modelling the shelf seas with biogeochemical models can provide valuable data, allowing scientists to look at both past and future scenarios to estimate ecosystem response to change. In particular, the European Regional Sea Ecosystem Model or ERSEM combines not only the complex hydrographical aspects of the North West European shelf, but also vast numbers of biological and chemical parameters. Though huge efforts across the modelling community are invested into developing and ultimately increasing the reliability of models such as the ERSEM, this is typically achieved by looking at relationships with aforementioned observed datasets, restricting model accuracy and our understanding of ecosystem processes. It is for this reason that proxy data of the marine environment is so valuable. Of all marine proxies available, sclerochronology, the study of the growth bands on long-lived marine molluscs, is the only proven to provide novel, high resolution, multi-centennial, annually-resolved, absolutely-dated archives of past ocean environment, analogous to dendrochronology. For the first time, this PhD project will combine the proxy data of sclerochronology with model hindcast data from the ERSEM with the aim to better understand the North West European shelf sea environment and potentially improve predictions of future climate change in this region and

  2. Bet hedging in a warming ocean: predictability of maternal environment shapes offspring size variation in marine sticklebacks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shama, Lisa N S

    2015-12-01

    Bet hedging at reproduction is expected to evolve when mothers are exposed to unpredictable cues for future environmental conditions, whereas transgenerational plasticity (TGP) should be favoured when cues reliably predict the environment offspring will experience. Since climate predictions forecast an increase in both temperature and climate variability, both TGP and bet hedging are likely to become important strategies to mediate climate change effects. Here, the potential to produce variably sized offspring in both warming and unpredictable environments was tested by investigating whether stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) mothers adjusted mean offspring size and within-clutch variation in offspring size in response to experimental manipulation of maternal thermal environment and predictability (alternating between ambient and elevated water temperatures). Reproductive output traits of F1 females were influenced by both temperature and environmental predictability. Mothers that developed at ambient temperature (17 °C) produced larger, but fewer eggs than mothers that developed at elevated temperature (21 °C), implying selection for different-sized offspring in different environments. Mothers in unpredictable environments had smaller mean egg sizes and tended to have greater within-female egg size variability, especially at 21 °C, suggesting that mothers may have dynamically modified the variance in offspring size to spread the risk of incorrectly predicting future environmental conditions. Both TGP and diversification influenced F2 offspring body size. F2 offspring reared at 21 °C had larger mean body sizes if their mother developed at 21 °C, but this TGP benefit was not present for offspring of 17 °C mothers reared at 17 °C, indicating that maternal TGP will be highly relevant for ocean warming scenarios in this system. Offspring of variable environment mothers were smaller but more variable in size than offspring from constant environment

  3. Predicting land cover changes in the Amazon rainforest: An ocean-atmosphere-biosphere problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereira, Marcos Paulo Santos; Malhado, Ana Cláudia Mendes; Costa, Marcos Heil

    2012-05-01

    Accurate studies of the impacts of climate change on the distribution of major vegetation types are essential for developing effective conservation and land use policy. Such studies require the development of models that accurately represent the complex and interacting biophysical factors that influence regional patterns of vegetation. Here we investigate the impacts of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) on the vegetation of the Amazon, testing the hypothesis that changes in Amazonian vegetation structure are a consequence of an ocean-atmosphere-biosphere interaction. We design a numerical experiment in which we force a coupled climate-biosphere model by 10 SST patterns produced by different IPCC AR4 models, for the A2 scenario for the period 2000-2050. Simulations for 2011-2050 show that certain patterns of SST are likely to decrease the ensemble for tropical evergreen rainforest and savanna, and that these areas will be occupied mainly by tropical deciduous rainforest, emitting an average of 0.53 Pg-C.yr-1 during the transition.

  4. Analyses of the predicted changes of the global oceans under the increased greenhouse gases scenarios

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    MU Lin; WU Dexing; CHEN Xue'en; J Jungclaus

    2006-01-01

    A new climate model (ECHAM5/MPIOM1) developed for the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) at Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology is used to study the climate changes under the different increased CO2 scenarios (B1, A1B and A2). Based on the corresponding model results, the sea surface temperature and salinity structure, the variations of the thermohaline circulation (THC) and the changes of sea ice in the northern hemisphere are analyzed. It is concluded that from the year of 2000 to 2100, under the B1, A1B and A2 scenarios, the global mean sea surface temperatures (SST) would increase by 2.5℃, 3.5℃ and 4.0℃ respectively, especially in the region of the Arctic, the increase of SST would be even above 10.0℃; the maximal negative value of the variation of the fresh water flux is located in the subtropical oceans, while the precipitation in the eastern tropical Pacific increases. The strength of THC decreases under the B1, A1B and A2 scenarios, and the reductions would be about 20%, 25% and 25.1% of the present THC strength respectively. In the northern hemisphere, the area of the sea ice cover would decrease by about 50% under the A1B scenario.

  5. (Studies of ocean predictability at decade to century time scales using a global ocean general circulation model in a parallel competing environment). [Large Scale Geostrophic Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1992-03-10

    The first phase of the proposed work is largely completed on schedule. Scientists at the San Diego Supercomputer Center (SDSC) succeeded in putting a version of the Hamburg isopycnal coordinate ocean model (OPYC) onto the INTEL parallel computer. Due to the slow run speeds of the OPYC on the parallel machine, another ocean is being model used during the first part of phase 2. The model chosen is the Large Scale Geostrophic (LSG) model form the Max Planck Institute.

  6. [Studies of ocean predictability at decade to century time scales using a global ocean general circulation model in a parallel competing environment]. Progress report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1992-03-10

    The first phase of the proposed work is largely completed on schedule. Scientists at the San Diego Supercomputer Center (SDSC) succeeded in putting a version of the Hamburg isopycnal coordinate ocean model (OPYC) onto the INTEL parallel computer. Due to the slow run speeds of the OPYC on the parallel machine, another ocean is being model used during the first part of phase 2. The model chosen is the Large Scale Geostrophic (LSG) model form the Max Planck Institute.

  7. Predicting East African spring droughts using Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funk, Christopher C.; Hoell, Andrew; Shukla, Shraddhanand; Blade, Ileana; Liebmann, Brant; Roberts, Jason B.; Robertson, Franklin R.

    2014-01-01

    In southern Ethiopia, Eastern Kenya, and southern Somalia poor boreal spring rains in 1999, 2000, 2004, 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2011 contributed to severe food insecurity and high levels of malnutrition. Predicting rainfall deficits in this region on seasonal and decadal time frames can help decision makers support disaster risk reduction while guiding climate-smart adaptation and agricultural development. Building on recent research that links more frequent droughts to a stronger Walker Circulation, warming in the Indo-Pacific warm pool, and an increased western Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) gradient, we explore the dominant modes of East African rainfall variability, links between these modes and sea surface temperatures, and a simple index-based monitoring-prediction system suitable for drought early warning.

  8. The Role of Moist Processes in the Intrinsic Predictability of Indian Ocean Cyclones

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Taraphdar, Sourav; Mukhopadhyay, P.; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Zhang, Fuqing; Abhilash, S.; Goswami, B. N.

    2014-07-16

    The role of moist processes and the possibility of error cascade from cloud scale processes affecting the intrinsic predictable time scale of a high resolution convection permitting model within the environment of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the Indian region are investigated. Consistent with past studies of extra-tropical cyclones, it is demonstrated that moist processes play a major role in forecast error growth which may ultimately limit the intrinsic predictability of the TCs. Small errors in the initial conditions may grow rapidly and cascades from smaller scales to the larger scales through strong diabatic heating and nonlinearities associated with moist convection. Results from a suite of twin perturbation experiments for four tropical cyclones suggest that the error growth is significantly higher in cloud permitting simulation at 3.3 km resolutions compared to simulations at 3.3 km and 10 km resolution with parameterized convection. Convective parameterizations with prescribed convective time scales typically longer than the model time step allows the effects of microphysical tendencies to average out so convection responds to a smoother dynamical forcing. Without convective parameterizations, the finer-scale instabilities resolved at 3.3 km resolution and stronger vertical motion that results from the cloud microphysical parameterizations removing super-saturation at each model time step can ultimately feed the error growth in convection permitting simulations. This implies that careful considerations and/or improvements in cloud parameterizations are needed if numerical predictions are to be improved through increased model resolution. Rapid upscale error growth from convective scales may ultimately limit the intrinsic mesoscale predictability of the TCs, which further supports the needs for probabilistic forecasts of these events, even at the mesoscales.

  9. Trajectory Design for Autonomous Underwater Vehicles Based on Ocean Model Predictions for Feature Tracking

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-07-01

    the right conditions. Harmful algal blooms (HABs) can cause harm via toxin production, or by their accumulated biomass. Such blooms can cause severe...microorganisms. It is of interest to predict when and where HABs may form, and which coastal areas they may affect. Harmful algal blooms are an active area...significant fresh water plume is detected via direct observation or remotely sensed data such as satellite imagery. repeat A set of points (D) is chosen

  10. Ocean Circulation and Water Mass Characteristics around the Galápagos Archipelago Simulated by a Multiscale Nested Ocean Circulation Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanyun Liu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Ocean circulation and water mass characteristics around the Galápagos Archipelago are studied using a four-level nested-domain ocean system (HYCOM. The model sensitivity to atmospheric forcing frequency and spatial resolution is examined. Results show, that with prescribed atmospheric forcing, HYCOM can generally simulate the major El Niño events especially the strong 1997-1998 events. Waters surrounding the archipelago show a large range of temperature and salinity in association with four different current systems. West zones of Isabella and Fernandina Islands are the largest upwelling zones, resulting from the collision of the Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC with the islands, bringing relatively colder, salty waters to the surface and marking the location of the highest biological production. Model results, which agree well with observations, show a seasonal cycle in the transport of the EUC, reaching a maximum during the late spring/early summer and minimum in the late fall. The far northern region is characterized by warmer, fresher water with the greatest mixed layer depth as a result of Panama Current waters entering from the northeast. Water masses over the remainder of the region result from mixing of cool Peru Current waters and upwelled Cold Tongue waters entering from the east.

  11. The Performance of the US Navy’s RELO Ensemble, NCOM, HYCOM During the Period of GLAD At-Sea Experiment in the Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    study for the coast of Florida. Physica D 210, 1–20. Lermusiaux, P.F.J., 1999. Estimation and study of mesoscale variability in the Strait of Sicily . Dyn...Predictability of drifter trajectories in the tropical Pacific Ocean. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 31, 2691–2720. Reynolds, C.A., Ridout, J., McLay, J., 2011

  12. Soil Plug Effect Prediction and Pile Driveability Analysis for Large-Diameter Steel Piles in Ocean Engineering

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU Run; YAN Shu-wang; LI Zhi-hua

    2009-01-01

    Long steel piles with large diameters have been more widely used in the field of ocean engineering.Owing to the pile with a large diameter,soil plug development during pile driving has great influences on pile driveability and beating capacity.The response of soil plug developed inside the open-ended pipe pile during the dynamic condition of pile-driving is different from the response under the static condition of loading during service.This paper addresses the former aspect.A numerical procedure for soil plng effect prediction and pile driveability analysis is proposed and described.By taking into consideration of the pile dimension effect on side and tip resistance,this approach introduces a dimensional coefficient to the conventional static equilibrium equations for the plug differential unit and proposes an improved static equity method for the plug effect prediction.At the same time,this approach introduces a simplified model by use of one-dimensional stress wave equation to simulate the interaction between soft ping and pile inner wall.The proposed approach has been applied in practical engineering analyses.Results show that the calculated plug effect and pile driveability based on the proposed approach agree well with the observed data.

  13. Preparing to Predict: The Second Autonomous Ocean Sampling Network (AOSN-II) Experiment in the Monterey Bay

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-06-06

    Journal of Marine Systems , 40, 171-212 Bogden et al, 2001...dimensional multiscale ocean variability: Massachusetts Bay. Journal of Marine Systems , Special issue on “Three-dimensional ocean circulation: Lagrangian...System Using Multiply-Nested Ocean Models and Distributed Data Systems, Journal of Marine Systems , 56, 45-66. Paduan, J. D., and L. K.

  14. Comparison of full field and anomaly initialisation for decadal climate prediction: towards an optimal consistency between the ocean and sea-ice anomaly initialisation state

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volpi, Danila; Guemas, Virginie; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J.

    2017-08-01

    Decadal prediction exploits sources of predictability from both the internal variability through the initialisation of the climate model from observational estimates, and the external radiative forcings. When a model is initialised with the observed state at the initial time step (Full Field Initialisation—FFI), the forecast run drifts towards the biased model climate. Distinguishing between the climate signal to be predicted and the model drift is a challenging task, because the application of a-posteriori bias correction has the risk of removing part of the variability signal. The anomaly initialisation (AI) technique aims at addressing the drift issue by answering the following question: if the model is allowed to start close to its own attractor (i.e. its biased world), but the phase of the simulated variability is constrained toward the contemporaneous observed one at the initialisation time, does the prediction skill improve? The relative merits of the FFI and AI techniques applied respectively to the ocean component and the ocean and sea ice components simultaneously in the EC-Earth global coupled model are assessed. For both strategies the initialised hindcasts show better skill than historical simulations for the ocean heat content and AMOC along the first two forecast years, for sea ice and PDO along the first forecast year, while for AMO the improvements are statistically significant for the first two forecast years. The AI in the ocean and sea ice components significantly improves the skill of the Arctic sea surface temperature over the FFI.

  15. Comparison of full field and anomaly initialisation for decadal climate prediction: towards an optimal consistency between the ocean and sea-ice anomaly initialisation state

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volpi, Danila; Guemas, Virginie; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J.

    2016-10-01

    Decadal prediction exploits sources of predictability from both the internal variability through the initialisation of the climate model from observational estimates, and the external radiative forcings. When a model is initialised with the observed state at the initial time step (Full Field Initialisation—FFI), the forecast run drifts towards the biased model climate. Distinguishing between the climate signal to be predicted and the model drift is a challenging task, because the application of a-posteriori bias correction has the risk of removing part of the variability signal. The anomaly initialisation (AI) technique aims at addressing the drift issue by answering the following question: if the model is allowed to start close to its own attractor (i.e. its biased world), but the phase of the simulated variability is constrained toward the contemporaneous observed one at the initialisation time, does the prediction skill improve? The relative merits of the FFI and AI techniques applied respectively to the ocean component and the ocean and sea ice components simultaneously in the EC-Earth global coupled model are assessed. For both strategies the initialised hindcasts show better skill than historical simulations for the ocean heat content and AMOC along the first two forecast years, for sea ice and PDO along the first forecast year, while for AMO the improvements are statistically significant for the first two forecast years. The AI in the ocean and sea ice components significantly improves the skill of the Arctic sea surface temperature over the FFI.

  16. Improving the Forecast Accuracy of an Ocean Observation and Prediction System by Adaptive Control of the Sensor Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Talukder, A.; Panangadan, A. V.; Blumberg, A. F.; Herrington, T.; Georgas, N.

    2008-12-01

    The New York Harbor Observation and Prediction System (NYHOPS) is a real-time, estuarine and coastal ocean observing and modeling system for the New York Harbor and surrounding waters. Real-time measurements from in-situ mobile and stationary sensors in the NYHOPS networks are assimilated into marine forecasts in order to reduce the discrepancy with ground truth. The forecasts are obtained from the ECOMSED hydrodynamic model, a shallow water derivative of the Princeton Ocean Model. Currently, all sensors in the NYHOPS system are operated in a fixed mode with uniform sampling rates. This technology infusion effort demonstrates the use of Model Predictive Control (MPC) to autonomously adapt the operation of both mobile and stationary sensors in response to changing events that are -automatically detected from the ECOMSED forecasts. The controller focuses sensing resources on those regions that are expected to be impacted by the detected events. The MPC approach involves formulating the problem of calculating the optimal sensor parameters as a constrained multi-objective optimization problem. We have developed an objective function that takes into account the spatiotemporal relationship of the in-situ sensor locations and the locations of events detected by the model. Experiments in simulation were carried out using data collected during a freshwater flooding event. The location of the resulting freshwater plume was calculated from the corresponding model forecasts and was used by the MPC controller to derive control parameters for the sensing assets. The operational parameters that are controlled include the sampling rates of stationary sensors, paths of unmanned underwater vehicles (UUVs), and data transfer routes between sensors and the central modeling computer. The simulation experiments show that MPC-based sensor control reduces the RMS error in the forecast by a factor of 380% as compared to uniform sampling. The paths of multiple UUVs were simultaneously

  17. Relative importance of the processes contributing to the development of SST anomalies in the eastern pole of the Indian Ocean Dipole and its implication for predictability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanizaki, Chiho; Tozuka, Tomoki; Doi, Takeshi; Yamagata, Toshio

    2017-08-01

    Using outputs from an ocean general circulation model, the relative importance of the processes contributing to the development of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is examined systematically based on two metrics. One metric quantifies the relative importance of the surface heat flux term against the oceanic terms, while the other metric compares the contribution from the horizontal advection and vertical diabatic terms. It is revealed that the anomalous cooling in the eastern tropical Indian Ocean associated with the positive IOD varies with events and four representative events are investigated in more detail. During the 1991 IOD, the horizontal advection term made the largest contribution to the eastern cooling, and the vertical diabatic term was equally important in the early stage of the development. In the 1994 event, negative SST anomalies were generated by the surface heat flux term at first, and then matured by the vertical diabatic term. Anomalous cooling during the 1997 IOD was mainly produced by the vertical diabatic term. In 2012, anomalous surface heat flux and horizontal advection played the crucial role in the development of the eastern pole, but the vertical diabatic term opposed to the anomalous cooling. Furthermore, the dependence of the seasonal prediction skill by a global ocean-atmosphere coupled general circulation model on the generation mechanisms was examined. It is demonstrated that events with the vertical diabatic term playing a more important role in the development of the eastern pole are better predicted than those with the vertical diabatic term making relatively small contribution or opposing the occurrence.

  18. Natural ocean carbon cycle sensitivity to parameterizations of the recycling in a climate model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Romanou

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Sensitivities of the oceanic biological pump within the GISS climate modeling system are explored here. Results are presented from twin control simulations of the air-sea CO2 gas exchange using two different ocean models coupled to the same atmosphere. The two ocean models (Russell ocean model and Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model, HYCOM use different vertical coordinate systems, and therefore different representations of column physics. Both variants of the GISS climate model are coupled to the same ocean biogeochemistry module (the NASA Ocean Biogeochemistry Model, NOBM which computes prognostic distributions for biotic and abiotic fields that influence the air-sea flux of CO2 and the deep ocean carbon transport and storage. In particular, the model differences due to remineralization rate changes are compared to differences attributed to physical processes modeled differently in the two ocean models such as ventilation, mixing, eddy stirring and vertical advection. The Southern Ocean emerges as a key region where the CO2 flux is as sensitive to biological parameterizations as it is to physical parameterizations. Mixing in the Southern Ocean is shown to be a~good indicator of the magnitude of the biological pump efficiency regardless of physical model choice.

  19. Improving the Operational Methodology of Tropical Cyclone Seasonal Prediction in the Australian and the South Pacific Ocean Regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. S. Wijnands

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Tropical cyclones (TCs can have a major impact on the coastal communities of Australia and Pacific Island countries. Preparedness is one of the key factors to limit TC impacts and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology issues an outlook of TC seasonal activity ahead of TC season for the Australian Region (AR; 5°S to 40°S, 90°E to 160°E and the South Pacific Ocean (SPO; 5°S to 40°S, 142.5°E to 120°W. This paper investigates the use of support vector regression models and new explanatory variables to improve the accuracy of seasonal TC predictions. Correlation analysis and subsequent cross-validation of the generated models showed that the Dipole Mode Index (DMI performs well as an explanatory variable for TC prediction in both AR and SPO, Niño4 SST anomalies—in AR and Niño1+2 SST anomalies—in SPO. For both AR and SPO, the developed model which utilised the combination of Niño1+2 SST anomalies, Niño4 SST anomalies, and DMI had the best forecasting performance. The support vector regression models outperform the current models based on linear discriminant analysis approach for both regions, improving the standard deviation of errors in cross-validation from 2.87 to 2.27 for AR and from 4.91 to 3.92 for SPO.

  20. Predicting Where a Radiation Will Occur: Acoustic and Molecular Surveys Reveal Overlooked Diversity in Indian Ocean Island Crickets (Mogoplistinae: Ornebius).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warren, Ben H; Baudin, Rémy; Franck, Antoine; Hugel, Sylvain; Strasberg, Dominique

    2016-01-01

    Recent theory suggests that the geographic location of island radiations (local accumulation of species diversity due to cladogenesis) can be predicted based on island area and isolation. Crickets are a suitable group for testing these predictions, as they show both the ability to reach some of the most isolated islands in the world, and to speciate at small spatial scales. Despite substantial song variation between closely related species in many island cricket lineages worldwide, to date this characteristic has not received attention in the western Indian Ocean islands; existing species descriptions are based on morphology alone. Here we use a combination of acoustics and DNA sequencing to survey these islands for Ornebius crickets. We uncover a small but previously unknown radiation in the Mascarenes, constituting a three-fold increase in the Ornebius species diversity of this archipelago (from two to six species). A further new species is detected in the Comoros. Although double archipelago colonisation is the best explanation for species diversity in the Seychelles, in situ cladogenesis is the best explanation for the six species in the Mascarenes and two species of the Comoros. Whether the radiation of Mascarene Ornebius results from intra- or purely inter- island speciation cannot be determined on the basis of the phylogenetic data alone. However, the existence of genetic, song and ecological divergence at the intra-island scale is suggestive of an intra-island speciation scenario in which ecological and mating traits diverge hand-in-hand. Our results suggest that the geographic location of Ornebius radiations is partially but not fully explained by island area and isolation. A notable anomaly is Madagascar, where our surveys are consistent with existing accounts in finding no Ornebius species present. Possible explanations are discussed, invoking ecological differences between species and differences in environmental history between islands.

  1. Predicting Where a Radiation Will Occur: Acoustic and Molecular Surveys Reveal Overlooked Diversity in Indian Ocean Island Crickets (Mogoplistinae: Ornebius.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ben H Warren

    Full Text Available Recent theory suggests that the geographic location of island radiations (local accumulation of species diversity due to cladogenesis can be predicted based on island area and isolation. Crickets are a suitable group for testing these predictions, as they show both the ability to reach some of the most isolated islands in the world, and to speciate at small spatial scales. Despite substantial song variation between closely related species in many island cricket lineages worldwide, to date this characteristic has not received attention in the western Indian Ocean islands; existing species descriptions are based on morphology alone. Here we use a combination of acoustics and DNA sequencing to survey these islands for Ornebius crickets. We uncover a small but previously unknown radiation in the Mascarenes, constituting a three-fold increase in the Ornebius species diversity of this archipelago (from two to six species. A further new species is detected in the Comoros. Although double archipelago colonisation is the best explanation for species diversity in the Seychelles, in situ cladogenesis is the best explanation for the six species in the Mascarenes and two species of the Comoros. Whether the radiation of Mascarene Ornebius results from intra- or purely inter- island speciation cannot be determined on the basis of the phylogenetic data alone. However, the existence of genetic, song and ecological divergence at the intra-island scale is suggestive of an intra-island speciation scenario in which ecological and mating traits diverge hand-in-hand. Our results suggest that the geographic location of Ornebius radiations is partially but not fully explained by island area and isolation. A notable anomaly is Madagascar, where our surveys are consistent with existing accounts in finding no Ornebius species present. Possible explanations are discussed, invoking ecological differences between species and differences in environmental history between

  2. Japan Meteorological Agency/Meteorological Research Institute-Coupled Prediction System version 2 (JMA/MRI-CPS2): atmosphere-land-ocean-sea ice coupled prediction system for operational seasonal forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takaya, Yuhei; Hirahara, Shoji; Yasuda, Tamaki; Matsueda, Satoko; Toyoda, Takahiro; Fujii, Yosuke; Sugimoto, Hiroyuki; Matsukawa, Chihiro; Ishikawa, Ichiro; Mori, Hirotoshi; Nagasawa, Ryoji; Kubo, Yutaro; Adachi, Noriyuki; Yamanaka, Goro; Kuragano, Tsurane; Shimpo, Akihiko; Maeda, Shuhei; Ose, Tomoaki

    2017-04-01

    This paper describes the Japan Meteorological Agency/Meteorological Research Institute-Coupled Prediction System version 2 (JMA/MRI-CPS2), which was put into operation in June 2015 for the purpose of performing seasonal predictions. JMA/MRI-CPS2 has various upgrades from its predecessor, JMA/MRI-CPS1, including improved resolution and physics in its atmospheric and oceanic components, introduction of an interactive sea-ice model and realistic initialization of its land component. Verification of extensive re-forecasts covering a 30-year period (1981-2010) demonstrates that JMA/MRI-CPS2 possesses improved seasonal predictive skills for both atmospheric and oceanic interannual variability as well as key coupled variability such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). For ENSO prediction, the new system better represents the forecast uncertainty and transition/duration of ENSO phases. Our analysis suggests that the enhanced predictive skills are attributable to incremental improvements resulting from all of the changes, as is apparent in the beneficial effects of sea-ice coupling and land initialization on 2-m temperature predictions. JMA/MRI-CPS2 is capable of reasonably representing the seasonal cycle and secular trends of sea ice. The sea-ice coupling remarkably enhances the predictive capability for the Arctic 2-m temperature, indicating the importance of this factor, particularly for seasonal predictions in the Arctic region.

  3. Evidence for the role of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and the ocean heat uptake in hiatus prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pasini, Antonello; Triacca, Umberto; Attanasio, Alessandro

    2017-08-01

    The recent hiatus in global temperature at the surface has been analysed by several studies, mainly using global climate models. The common accepted picture is that since the late 1990s, the increase in anthropogenic radiative forcings has been counterbalanced by other factors, e.g., a decrease in natural forcings, augmented ocean heat storage and negative phases of ocean-atmosphere-coupled oscillation patterns. Here, simple vector autoregressive models are used for forecasting the temperature hiatus in the period 2001-2014. This gives new insight into the problem of understanding the ocean contribution (in terms of heat uptake and atmosphere-ocean-coupled oscillations) to the appearance of this recent hiatus. In particular, considering data about the ocean heat content until a depth of 700 m and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation is necessary for correctly forecasting the hiatus, so catching both trend and interannual variability. Our models also show that the ocean heat uptake is substantially driven by the natural component of the total radiative forcing at a decadal time scale, confining the importance of the anthropogenic influences to a longer range warming of the ocean.

  4. Evidence for the role of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and the ocean heat uptake in hiatus prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pasini, Antonello; Triacca, Umberto; Attanasio, Alessandro

    2016-05-01

    The recent hiatus in global temperature at the surface has been analysed by several studies, mainly using global climate models. The common accepted picture is that since the late 1990s, the increase in anthropogenic radiative forcings has been counterbalanced by other factors, e.g., a decrease in natural forcings, augmented ocean heat storage and negative phases of ocean-atmosphere-coupled oscillation patterns. Here, simple vector autoregressive models are used for forecasting the temperature hiatus in the period 2001-2014. This gives new insight into the problem of understanding the ocean contribution (in terms of heat uptake and atmosphere-ocean-coupled oscillations) to the appearance of this recent hiatus. In particular, considering data about the ocean heat content until a depth of 700 m and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation is necessary for correctly forecasting the hiatus, so catching both trend and interannual variability. Our models also show that the ocean heat uptake is substantially driven by the natural component of the total radiative forcing at a decadal time scale, confining the importance of the anthropogenic influences to a longer range warming of the ocean.

  5. Multiresolution in CROCO (Coastal and Regional Ocean Community model)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Debreu, Laurent; Auclair, Francis; Benshila, Rachid; Capet, Xavier; Dumas, Franck; Julien, Swen; Marchesiello, Patrick

    2016-04-01

    CROCO (Coastal and Regional Ocean Community model [1]) is a new oceanic modeling system built upon ROMS_AGRIF and the non-hydrostatic kernel of SNH, gradually including algorithms from MARS3D (sediments)and HYCOM (vertical coordinates). An important objective of CROCO is to provide the possibility of running truly multiresolution simulations. Our previous work on structured mesh refinement [2] allowed us to run two-way nesting with the following major features: conservation, spatial and temporal refinement, coupling at the barotropic level. In this presentation, we will expose the current developments in CROCO towards multiresolution simulations: connection between neighboring grids at the same level of resolution and load balancing on parallel computers. Results of preliminary experiments will be given both on an idealized test case and on a realistic simulation of the Bay of Biscay with high resolution along the coast. References: [1] : CROCO : http://www.croco-ocean.org [2] : Debreu, L., P. Marchesiello, P. Penven, and G. Cambon, 2012: Two-way nesting in split-explicit ocean models: algorithms, implementation and validation. Ocean Modelling, 49-50, 1-21.

  6. Validation Test Report for the Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere MesoscalePrediction System (COAMPS) Version 5.0: Ocean/Wave Component Validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-12-31

    CP2 , and CP3 (Figure 3.4-1). The DART06 observations consisted of surface drifting floats, satellite remote sensing products, and several new...Mean Directional Error VR1 VR2 VR4 VR5 VR6 CP2 CP3 KB1 Coupled w/wave (NAVDAS and NCODA) 2.12 1.30 15.17 7.15 4.26 2.89 0.40 12.13 Coupled w...Uncoupled (ocean only) 1.75 0.54 16.30 7.86 4.76 1.69 1.23 11.14 Complex Correlation Coefficient (CCC) VR1 VR2 VR4 VR5 VR6 CP2 CP3 KB1 Coupled w

  7. Predicting dissolved lignin phenol concentrations in the coastal ocean from chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM absorption coefficients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cédric G. Fichot

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Dissolved lignin is a well-established biomarker of terrigenous dissolved organic matter (DOM in the ocean, and a chromophoric component of DOM. Although evidence suggests there is a strong linkage between lignin concentrations and chromophoric DOM (CDOM absorption coefficients in coastal waters, the characteristics of this linkage and the existence of a relationship that is applicable across coastal oceans remain unclear. Here, 421 paired measurements of dissolved lignin concentrations (sum of 9 lignin phenols and CDOM absorption coefficients (ag(λ were used to examine their relationship along the river-ocean continuum (0-37 salinity and across contrasting coastal oceans (sub-tropical, temperate, high-latitude. Overall, lignin concentrations spanned four orders of magnitude and revealed a strong, non-linear relationship with ag(λ. The characteristics of the relationship (shape, wavelength dependency, lignin-composition dependency and evidence from degradation indicators were all consistent with lignin being an important driver of CDOM variability in coastal oceans, and suggested physical mixing and long-term photodegradation were important in shaping the relationship. These observations were used to develop two simple empirical models for estimating lignin concentrations from ag(λ with a +/- 20% error relative to measured values. The models are expected to be applicable in most coastal oceans influenced by terrigenous inputs.

  8. PREDICTION AND VERIFICATION OF THE 1997-1999 EL NINO AND LA NINA BY USING AN INTERMEDIATE OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE COUPLED MODEL

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李清泉; 赵宗慈; 丁一汇

    2001-01-01

    The numerical simulations, hindcasts and verifications of the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) have been conducted by using a dynamical tropical Pacific ocean atmosphere coupled model named NCCo. The results showed that the model had performed reasonable simulations of the major El Nino episodes in the history, and the model forecast skill in 1990s had been significantly improved. NCCo model has been used to predict the tropical Pacific SSTA since January 1997. The comparisons between predictions and observations indicated that the occurrence, evolution and ending of the 1997/1998 El Nino episode have been predicted fairly well by using this model. Also, the La Nina episode that began in the autumn of 1998 and the developing tendency of the tropical Pacific SSTA during the year 1999 have been predicted successfully. The forecast skills of NCCo model during the 1997-1999 El Nino and La Nina events are above 0. 5 at 0- 14 lead months.

  9. Extended-range prediction trials using the global cloud/cloud-system resolving model NICAM and its new ocean-coupled version NICOCO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miyakawa, Tomoki

    2017-04-01

    The global cloud/cloud-system resolving model NICAM and its new fully-coupled version NICOCO is run on one of the worlds top-tier supercomputers, the K computer. NICOCO couples the full-3D ocean component COCO of the general circulation model MIROC using a general-purpose coupler Jcup. We carried out multiple MJO simulations using NICAM and the new ocean-coupled version NICOCO to examine their extended-range MJO prediction skills and the impact of ocean coupling. NICAM performs excellently in terms of MJO prediction, maintaining a valid skill up to 27 days after the model is initialized (Miyakawa et al 2014). As is the case in most global models, ocean coupling frees the model from being anchored by the observed SST and allows the model climate to drift away further from reality compared to the atmospheric version of the model. Thus, it is important to evaluate the model bias, and in an initial value problem such as the seasonal extended-range prediction, it is essential to be able to distinguish the actual signal from the early transition of the model from the observed state to its own climatology. Since NICAM is a highly resource-demanding model, evaluation and tuning of the model climatology (order of years) is challenging. Here we focus on the initial 100 days to estimate the early drift of the model, and subsequently evaluate MJO prediction skills of NICOCO. Results show that in the initial 100 days, NICOCO forms a La-Nina like SST bias compared to observation, with a warmer Maritime Continent warm pool and a cooler equatorial central Pacific. The enhanced convection over the Maritime Continent associated with this bias project on to the real-time multi-variate MJO indices (RMM, Wheeler and Hendon 2004), and contaminates the MJO skill score. However, the bias does not appear to demolish the MJO signal severely. The model maintains a valid MJO prediction skill up to nearly 4 weeks when evaluated after linearly removing the early drift component estimated from

  10. Statistical downscaling of IPCC sea surface wind and wind energy predictions for U.S. east coastal ocean, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Zhigang; Xue, Zuo; He, Ruoying; Bao, Xianwen; Song, Jun

    2016-08-01

    A multivariate statistical downscaling method is developed to produce regional, high-resolution, coastal surface wind fields based on the IPCC global model predictions for the U.S. east coastal ocean, the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), and the Caribbean Sea. The statistical relationship is built upon linear regressions between the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) spaces of a cross- calibrated, multi-platform, multi-instrument ocean surface wind velocity dataset (predictand) and the global NCEP wind reanalysis (predictor) over a 10 year period from 2000 to 2009. The statistical relationship is validated before applications and its effectiveness is confirmed by the good agreement between downscaled wind fields based on the NCEP reanalysis and in-situ surface wind measured at 16 National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) buoys in the U.S. east coastal ocean and the GOM during 1992-1999. The predictand-predictor relationship is applied to IPCC GFDL model output (2.0°×2.5°) of downscaled coastal wind at 0.25°×0.25° resolution. The temporal and spatial variability of future predicted wind speeds and wind energy potential over the study region are further quantified. It is shown that wind speed and power would significantly be reduced in the high CO2 climate scenario offshore of the mid-Atlantic and northeast U.S., with the speed falling to one quarter of its original value.

  11. Application of a Reduced Order Kalman Filter to Initialize a Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Model: Impact on the Prediction of El Nino

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballabrera-Poy, Joaquim; Busalacchi, Antonio J.; Murtugudde, Ragu

    2000-01-01

    A reduced order Kalman Filter, based on a simplification of the Singular Evolutive Extended Kalman (SEEK) filter equations, is used to assimilate observed fields of the surface wind stress, sea surface temperature and sea level into the nonlinear coupled ocean-atmosphere model. The SEEK filter projects the Kalman Filter equations onto a subspace defined by the eigenvalue decomposition of the error forecast matrix, allowing its application to high dimensional systems. The Zebiak and Cane model couples a linear reduced gravity ocean model with a single vertical mode atmospheric model of Zebiak. The compatibility between the simplified physics of the model and each observed variable is studied separately and together. The results show the ability of the model to represent the simultaneous value of the wind stress, SST and sea level, when the fields are limited to the latitude band 10 deg S - 10 deg N. In this first application of the Kalman Filter to a coupled ocean-atmosphere prediction model, the sea level fields are assimilated in terms of the Kelvin and Rossby modes of the thermocline depth anomaly. An estimation of the error of these modes is derived from the projection of an estimation of the sea level error over such modes. This method gives a value of 12 for the error of the Kelvin amplitude, and 6 m of error for the Rossby component of the thermocline depth. The ability of the method to reconstruct the state of the equatorial Pacific and predict its time evolution is demonstrated. The method is shown to be quite robust for predictions I up to six months, and able to predict the onset of the 1997 warm event fifteen months before its occurrence.

  12. Predicting the effects of ocean acidification on predator-prey interactions: a conceptual framework based on coastal molluscs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kroeker, Kristy J; Sanford, Eric; Jellison, Brittany M; Gaylord, Brian

    2014-06-01

    The influence of environmental change on species interactions will affect population dynamics and community structure in the future, but our current understanding of the outcomes of species interactions in a high-CO2 world is limited. Here, we draw upon emerging experimental research examining the effects of ocean acidification on coastal molluscs to provide hypotheses of the potential impacts of high-CO2 on predator-prey interactions. Coastal molluscs, such as oysters, mussels, and snails, allocate energy among defenses, growth, and reproduction. Ocean acidification increases the energetic costs of physiological processes such as acid-base regulation and calcification. Impacted molluscs can display complex and divergent patterns of energy allocation to defenses and growth that may influence predator-prey interactions; these include changes in shell properties, body size, tissue mass, immune function, or reproductive output. Ocean acidification has also been shown to induce complex changes in chemoreception, behavior, and inducible defenses, including altered cue detection and predator avoidance behaviors. Each of these responses may ultimately alter the susceptibility of coastal molluscs to predation through effects on predator handling time, satiation, and search time. While many of these effects may manifest as increases in per capita predation rates on coastal molluscs, the ultimate outcome of predator-prey interactions will also depend on how ocean acidification affects the specified predators, which also exhibit complex responses to ocean acidification. Changes in predator-prey interactions could have profound and unexplored consequences for the population dynamics of coastal molluscs in a high-CO2 ocean. © 2014 Marine Biological Laboratory.

  13. Tropical cyclone activity over the Southwest Tropical Indian Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burns, Jessica M.; Subrahmanyam, Bulusu; Nyadjro, Ebenezer S.; Murty, V. S. N.

    2016-08-01

    The Southwest Tropical Indian Ocean (SWTIO) is a key region for air-sea interaction. Tropical cyclones (TCs) regularly form over the SWTIO and subsurface ocean variability influences the cyclogenesis of this region. Tropical cyclone days for this region span from November through April, and peak in January and February during austral summer. Past research provides evidence for more tropical cyclone days over the SWTIO during austral summer (December-June) with a deep thermocline ridge than in austral summer with a shallow thermocline ridge. We have analyzed the Argo temperature data and HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) outputs while focusing on the austral summer of 2012/2013 (a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) year and neutral El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) year) when seven named tropical cyclones developed over the SWTIO region. This study reveals that the climatic events like the IOD and ENSO influence the cyclonic activity and number of TC days over the SWTIO. We ascertain that the IOD events have linkages with the Barrier Layer Thickness (BLT) in the SWTIO region through propagating Rossby waves, and further show that the BLT variability influences the cyclonic activity in this region.

  14. Changes in the C, N, and P cycles by the predicted salps-krill shift in the southern ocean

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alcaraz, Miquel; Almeda, Rodrigo; Duarte, Carlos M.

    2014-01-01

    The metabolic carbon requirements and excretion rates of three major zooplankton groups in the Southern Ocean were studied in February 2009. The research was conducted in the framework of the ATOS research project as part of the Spanish contribution to the International Polar Year. The objective ...

  15. Regional ocean data assimilation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Christopher A; Moore, Andrew M; Hoteit, Ibrahim; Cornuelle, Bruce D

    2015-01-01

    This article reviews the past 15 years of developments in regional ocean data assimilation. A variety of scientific, management, and safety-related objectives motivate marine scientists to characterize many ocean environments, including coastal regions. As in weather prediction, the accurate representation of physical, chemical, and/or biological properties in the ocean is challenging. Models and observations alone provide imperfect representations of the ocean state, but together they can offer improved estimates. Variational and sequential methods are among the most widely used in regional ocean systems, and there have been exciting recent advances in ensemble and four-dimensional variational approaches. These techniques are increasingly being tested and adapted for biogeochemical applications.

  16. Regional Ocean Data Assimilation

    KAUST Repository

    Edwards, Christopher A.

    2015-01-03

    This article reviews the past 15 years of developments in regional ocean data assimilation. A variety of scientific, management, and safety-related objectives motivate marine scientists to characterize many ocean environments, including coastal regions. As in weather prediction, the accurate representation of physical, chemical, and/or biological properties in the ocean is challenging. Models and observations alone provide imperfect representations of the ocean state, but together they can offer improved estimates. Variational and sequential methods are among the most widely used in regional ocean systems, and there have been exciting recent advances in ensemble and four-dimensional variational approaches. These techniques are increasingly being tested and adapted for biogeochemical applications.

  17. Predicted radionuclide release from reactor-related unenclosed solid objects dumped in the Sea of Japan and the Pacific Ocean, east coast of Kamchatka

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mount, M.E. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States); Lynn, N.M.; Warden, J.M. [Royal Naval Coll., Greenwich (United Kingdom)

    1996-06-01

    Between 1978 and 1991 reactor-related solid radioactive waste was dumped by the former Soviet Union as unenclosed objects in the Pacific Ocean, east coast of Kamchatka, and the Sea of Japan. This paper presented estimates for the current (1994) inventory of activation and corrosion products contained in the reactor-related unenclosed solid objects. In addition, simple models derived for prediction of radionuclide release from marine reactors dumped in the Kara Sea are applied to certain of the dumped objects to provide estimates of radionuclide release to the Pacific Ocean, east coast of Kamchatka, and Sea of Japan environments. For the Pacific Ocean, east coast of Kamchatka, total release rates start below 0.01 GBq yr{sup -1} and over 1,000 years, fall to 100 Bq yr{sup -1}. In the Sea of Japan, the total release rate starts just above 1 GBq yr{sup - 1}, dropping off to a level less than 0.1 GBq yr{sup -1}, extending past the year 4,000.

  18. 1/32 Degree Real-Time Global Ocean Prediction and Value-Added Over 1/16 Degree Resolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-07-30

    altimeter SSH deviations from a temporal mean temperature Tm rather than layer 1 temperature, and (3) plus the mean SSH described in the next subsection...This SSH field is added to the altimeter SSH deviations from a temporal mean. inter-annual simulations with 6-hourly forcing, Kara and the period June...indicate that globally and in many regions of the world ocean the 30-day SSH forecasts are 0.6. not very sensitive to the difference between the clima

  19. Predictive habitat modelling of humpback (Megaptera novaeangliae) and Antarctic minke (Balaenoptera bonaerensis) whales in the Southern Ocean as a planning tool for seismic surveys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bombosch, Annette; Zitterbart, Daniel P.; Van Opzeeland, Ilse; Frickenhaus, Stephan; Burkhardt, Elke; Wisz, Mary S.; Boebel, Olaf

    2014-09-01

    Seismic surveys are frequently a matter of concern regarding their potentially negative impacts on marine mammals. In the Southern Ocean, which provides a critical habitat for several endangered cetacean species, seismic research activities are undertaken at a circumpolar scale. In order to minimize impacts of these surveys, pre-cruise planning requires detailed, spatio-temporally resolved knowledge on the likelihood of encountering these species in the survey area. In this publication we present predictive habitat modelling as a potential tool to support decisions for survey planning. We associated opportunistic sightings (2005-2011) of humpback (Megaptera novaeangliae, N=93) and Antarctic minke whales (Balaenoptera bonaerensis, N=139) with a range of static and dynamic environmental variables. A maximum entropy algorithm (Maxent) was used to develop habitat models and to calculate daily basinwide/circumpolar prediction maps to evaluate how species-specific habitat conditions evolved throughout the spring and summer months. For both species, prediction maps revealed considerable changes in habitat suitability throughout the season. Suitable humpback whale habitat occurred predominantly in ice-free areas, expanding southwards with the retreating sea ice edge, whereas suitable Antarctic minke whale habitat was consistently predicted within sea ice covered areas. Daily, large-scale prediction maps provide a valuable tool to design layout and timing of seismic surveys as they allow the identification and consideration of potential spatio-temporal hotspots to minimize potential impacts of seismic surveys on Antarctic cetacean species.

  20. "Going with the flow" or not: evidence of positive rheotaxis in oceanic juvenile loggerhead turtles (Caretta caretta in the South Pacific Ocean Using Satellite Tags and Ocean Circulation Data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Donald R Kobayashi

    Full Text Available The movement of juvenile loggerhead turtles (n = 42 out-fitted with satellite tags and released in oceanic waters off New Caledonia was examined and compared with ocean circulation data. Merging of the daily turtle movement data with drifter buoy movements, OSCAR (Ocean Surface Current Analyses--Real time circulation data, and three different vertical strata (0-5 m, 0-40 m, 0-100 m of HYCOM (HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model circulation data indicated the turtles were swimming against the prevailing current in a statistically significant pattern. This was not an artifact of prevailing directions of current and swimming, nor was it an artifact of frictional slippage. Generalized additive modeling was used to decompose the pattern of swimming into spatial and temporal components. The findings are indicative of a positive rheotaxis whereby an organism is able to detect the current flow and orient itself to swim into the current flow direction or otherwise slow down its movement. Potential mechanisms for the means and adaptive significance of rheotaxis in oceanic juvenile loggerhead turtles are discussed.

  1. "Going with the flow" or not: evidence of positive rheotaxis in oceanic juvenile loggerhead turtles (Caretta caretta) in the South Pacific Ocean Using Satellite Tags and Ocean Circulation Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kobayashi, Donald R; Farman, Richard; Polovina, Jeffrey J; Parker, Denise M; Rice, Marc; Balazs, George H

    2014-01-01

    The movement of juvenile loggerhead turtles (n = 42) out-fitted with satellite tags and released in oceanic waters off New Caledonia was examined and compared with ocean circulation data. Merging of the daily turtle movement data with drifter buoy movements, OSCAR (Ocean Surface Current Analyses--Real time) circulation data, and three different vertical strata (0-5 m, 0-40 m, 0-100 m) of HYCOM (HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model) circulation data indicated the turtles were swimming against the prevailing current in a statistically significant pattern. This was not an artifact of prevailing directions of current and swimming, nor was it an artifact of frictional slippage. Generalized additive modeling was used to decompose the pattern of swimming into spatial and temporal components. The findings are indicative of a positive rheotaxis whereby an organism is able to detect the current flow and orient itself to swim into the current flow direction or otherwise slow down its movement. Potential mechanisms for the means and adaptive significance of rheotaxis in oceanic juvenile loggerhead turtles are discussed.

  2. Current meter data from moored current meter casts in the Northeast Pacific Ocean as part of the Ocean Prediction Through Observation Modeling and Analysis (OPTOMA) project, 26 September 1984 - 16 July 1985 (NODC Accession 9600075)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Current meter data were collected using moored current meter casts in the Northeast Pacific Ocean from September 26, 1984 to July 16, 1985. Data were submitted by...

  3. Predictive Habitat Modelling as a Tool to Assess the Change in Distribution and Extent of an OSPAR Priority Habitat under an Increased Ocean Temperature Scenario: Consequences for Marine Protected Area Networks and Management

    OpenAIRE

    Gormley, Kate S. G.; Porter, Joanne S.; Bell, Michael C.; Angela D Hull; Sanderson, William G.

    2013-01-01

    The aims of this study were to determine the extent and distribution of an OSPAR priority habitat under current baseline ocean temperatures; to illustrate the prospect for habitat loss under a changing ocean temperature scenario; and to demonstrate the potential application of predictive habitat mapping in "future-proofing" conservation and biodiversity management. Maxent modelling and GIS environmental envelope analysis of the biogenic bed forming species, Modiolus modiolus was carried out. ...

  4. Prediction efficiency of the hydrographical parameters as related to distribution patterns of the Pleuromamma species in the Indian Ocean

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Jayalakshmy, K.V.; Saraswathy, M.

    . Multiple regression model of P. indica abundance on the parameters: temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen and phosphate-phosphorus could explain more than 85% of the variation in the predicted abundance, while those of 8 species obtained from...

  5. DIAGNOSTIC PREDICTIONS OF SST IN THE EQUATORIAL EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN BASED ON FUZZY INFERRING AND WAVELET DECOMPOSITION

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张韧; 周林; 董兆俊; 李训强

    2002-01-01

    Methods and approaches are discussed that identify and filter off affecting factors (noise) above primary signals, based on the Adaptive-Network-Based Fuzzy Inference System. Influences of the zonal winds in equatorial castern and middle/western Pacific on the SSTA in the equatorial region and their contribution to the latter are diagnosed and verified with observations of a number of significant El Nino and La Nina episodes. New viewpoints are proposed. The method of wavelet decomposition and reconstruction are used to build a predictive model based on independent domains of frequency, which shows some advantages in composite prediction and prediction validity. The methods presented above are of non-linearity, error-allowing and auto-adaptive / learning.in addition to rapid and easy access, illustrative and quantitative presentation, and analyzed results that agree generally with facts. They are useful in diagnosing and predicting the El Nino and La Nina problems that are just roughly described in dynamics.

  6. The Use of Oceanic Indices Variations Due to Climate Change to Predict Annual Discharge Variations in Northeastern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berton, R.; Shaw, S. B.; Chandler, D. G.; Driscoll, C. T.

    2014-12-01

    Climatic change affects streamflow in watersheds with winter snowpack and an annual snowmelt hydrograph. In the northeastern US, changes in streamflow are driven by both the advanced timing of snowmelt and increasing summer precipitation. Projections of climate for the region in the 21st century is for warmer winters and wetter summers. Water planners need to understand future changes in flow metrics to determine if the current water resources are capable of fulfilling future demands or adapting to future changes in climate. The study of teleconnection patterns between oceanic indices variations and hydrologic variables may help improve the understanding of future water resources conditions in a watershed. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the correlation between oceanic indices and discharge variations in the Merrimack Watershed. The Merrimack Watershed is the fourth largest basin in New England which drains much of New Hampshire and northeastern portions of Massachusetts, USA. Variations in sea surface temperature (SST) and sea level pressure (SLP) are defined by the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), respectively. We hypothesize that temporal changes in discharge are related to AMO and NAO variations since precipitation and discharge are highly correlated in the Merrimack. The Merrimack Watershed consists of undisturbed (reference) catchments and disturbed (developed) basins with long stream gauge records (> 100 years). Developed basins provide an opportunity to evaluate the impacts of river regulation and land development on teleconnection patterns as well as changing climate. Time series of AMO and NAO indices over the past 150 years along with Merrimack annual precipitation and discharge time series have shown a 1 to 2-year watershed hydrologic memory; higher correlation between Merrimack‎ annual precipitation and discharge with AMO and NAO are observed when a 1 to 2-year lag is given to AMO and NAO

  7. Predictability over the North Atlantic ocean in hindcast ensembles of MPI-ESM initialized by EnKF and three nudging systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brune, Sebastian; Pohlmann, Holger; Düsterhus, Andre; Kröger, Jürgen; Müller, Wolfgang; Baehr, Johanna

    2016-04-01

    We investigate hindcast skill for surface air temperature and upper ocean heat content (0-700m) in the North Atlantic for yearly mean values from 1960 to 2014 in four prediction systems based on the global coupled Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). We find that in the North Atlantic and within the four prediction systems under consideration only the EnKF initialized hindcasts reproduce the variability of the reference data well both in terms of anomaly correlation and representation of the probability density function. The systems under consideration only differ in the method how they incorporate surface and sub-surface oceanic temperatures and salinities during assimilation: ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF), anomaly nudging of ORA reanalysis (BS-1), full field nudging of ORA and GECCO reanalysis, respectively (PT-ORA, PT-GEC). We assess the hindcast skill of each prediction system with reference to HadCRUT4 near surface air temperature data (Morice et al. 2012) and NOAA OC5 upper ocean heat content data (Levitus et al. 2012) using anomaly correlation (ACC) and by analysing the interquartile range (IQR) of the probability density function (PDF). Firstly, we calculate hindcast skill in terms of ACC and IQR against reference data over the whole time period. Here, the hindcast skills of EnKF and BS-1 are better for both ACC and IQR in lead years 2 to 5 when compared to PT-ORA and PT-GEC, their hindcast skill drops off after lead year 1. Secondly, the PDF of the reference data is not uniformly distributed over time. We therefore calculate ACC and IQR for a 20 year moving window. We find hindcast skill in terms of ACC for EnKF and BS-1 in the 1960s and from the 1990s onwards, up to eight lead years in advance, with almost no skill for the time period inbetween. In contrast, there is no skill for PT-ORA and PT-GEC in any period after lead year one. The IQR of reference data is best captured by the EnKF, in the 1960s and 1990s up to lead year

  8. Machine Learning Methods for the Understanding and Prediction of Climate Systems: Tropical Pacific Ocean Thermocline and ENSO events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lima, C. H.; Lall, U.

    2012-12-01

    In this work we explore recently developed methods from the machine learning community for dimensionality reduction and model selection of very large datasets. We apply the nonlinear maximum variance unfolding (MVU) method to find a short dimensional space for the thermocline of the Tropical Pacific Ocean as indicated by the ocean depth of the 200C isotherm from the NOAA/NCEP GODAS dataset. The leading modes are then used as covariates in an ENSO forecast model based on LASSO regression, where parameters are shrunk in order to find the best subset of predictors. A comparison with Principal Component Analysis (PCA) reveals that MVU is able to reduce the thermocline data from 21009 dimensions to three main components that collectively explain 77% of the system variance, whereas the first three PCs respond to 47% of the variance only. The series of the first three leading MVU and PCA based modes and their associated spatial patterns show also different features, including an enhanced monotonic upward trend in the first MVU mode that is hardly detected in the correspondent first PCA mode. Correlation analysis between the MVU components and the NINO3 index shows that each of the modes has peak correlations across different lag times, with statistically significant correlation coefficients up to two years. After combining the three MVU components across several lag times, a forecast model for NINO3 based on LASSO regression was built and tested using the ten-fold cross-validation method. Based on metrics such as the RMSE and correlation scores, the results show appreciable skills for lead times that go beyond ten months, particularly for the December NINO3, which is responsible for several floods and droughts across the globe.; Spatial signature of the first MVU mode. ; First MVU series featuring the upward trend.

  9. World Ocean Circulation Experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clarke, R. Allyn

    1992-01-01

    The oceans are an equal partner with the atmosphere in the global climate system. The World Ocean Circulation Experiment is presently being implemented to improve ocean models that are useful for climate prediction both by encouraging more model development but more importantly by providing quality data sets that can be used to force or to validate such models. WOCE is the first oceanographic experiment that plans to generate and to use multiparameter global ocean data sets. In order for WOCE to succeed, oceanographers must establish and learn to use more effective methods of assembling, quality controlling, manipulating and distributing oceanographic data.

  10. The DoD's High Performance Computing Modernization Program - Ensuing the National Earth Systems Prediction Capability Becomes Operational

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burnett, W.

    2016-12-01

    The Department of Defense's (DoD) High Performance Computing Modernization Program (HPCMP) provides high performance computing to address the most significant challenges in computational resources, software application support and nationwide research and engineering networks. Today, the HPCMP has a critical role in ensuring the National Earth System Prediction Capability (N-ESPC) achieves initial operational status in 2019. A 2015 study commissioned by the HPCMP found that N-ESPC computational requirements will exceed interconnect bandwidth capacity due to the additional load from data assimilation and passing connecting data between ensemble codes. Memory bandwidth and I/O bandwidth will continue to be significant bottlenecks for the Navy's Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) scalability - by far the major driver of computing resource requirements in the N-ESPC. The study also found that few of the N-ESPC model developers have detailed plans to ensure their respective codes scale through 2024. Three HPCMP initiatives are designed to directly address and support these issues: Productivity Enhancement, Technology, Transfer and Training (PETTT), the HPCMP Applications Software Initiative (HASI), and Frontier Projects. PETTT supports code conversion by providing assistance, expertise and training in scalable and high-end computing architectures. HASI addresses the continuing need for modern application software that executes effectively and efficiently on next-generation high-performance computers. Frontier Projects enable research and development that could not be achieved using typical HPCMP resources by providing multi-disciplinary teams access to exceptional amounts of high performance computing resources. Finally, the Navy's DoD Supercomputing Resource Center (DSRC) currently operates a 6 Petabyte system, of which Naval Oceanography receives 15% of operational computational system use, or approximately 1 Petabyte of the processing capability. The DSRC will

  11. Prediction of daily modes of South Asian monsoon variability and its association with Indian and Pacific Ocean SST in the NCEP CFS V2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shahi, Namendra Kumar; Rai, Shailendra; Pandey, D. K.

    2016-02-01

    The prediction capability of daily modes of variability for South Asian monsoon from climate forecast system version 2 of national centers for environmental prediction with respect to observed precipitation has been assessed. The space-time structure of the daily modes for summer monsoon rainfall has been identified by using multi-channel singular spectrum analysis (MSSA). The MSSA is applied on daily anomalies of rainfall data over the South Asian monsoon region (40°E-160°E, 30°S-35°N) for the period of 2001-2013 with a lag window of 61 days for June-July-August-September season. The broad spectrum around 45 and 50 days was obtained from the observed and model data during the time domain of our study. The space-time structure of the modes obtained from the model shows good resemblance with respect to the observation. The observed northeastward propagation of oscillatory mode is well simulated by the model. The significant improvement in the space-time structure, period of oscillation, and propagation of oscillatory modes was found in the model. The observed connectivity of oscillatory and persisting modes with the sea surface temperature of Indian and Pacific Ocean has also been investigated and it was found that the model is able to predict it reasonably well.

  12. Seasonal cycle of volume transport through Kerama Gap revealed by a 20-year global HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Zhitao; Metzger, E. Joseph; Thoppil, Prasad; Hurlburt, Harley E.; Zamudio, Luis; Smedstad, Ole Martin; Na, Hanna; Nakamura, Hirohiko; Park, Jae-Hun

    2015-12-01

    The temporal variability of volume transport from the North Pacific Ocean to the East China Sea (ECS) through Kerama Gap (between Okinawa Island and Miyakojima Island - a part of Ryukyu Islands Arc) is investigated using a 20-year global HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) reanalysis with the Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation from 1993 to 2012. The HYCOM mean transport is 2.1 Sv (positive into the ECS, 1 Sv = 106 m3/s) from June 2009 to June 2011, in good agreement with the observed 2.0 Sv transport during the same period. This is similar to the 20-year mean Kerama Gap transport of 1.95 ± 4.0 Sv. The 20-year monthly mean volume transport (transport seasonal cycle) is maximum in October (3.0 Sv) and minimum in November (0.5 Sv). The annual variation component (345-400 days), mesoscale eddy component (70-345 days), and Kuroshio meander component (< 70 days) are separated to determine their contributions to the transport seasonal cycle. The annual variation component has a close relation with the local wind field and increases (decreases) transport into the ECS through Kerama Gap in summer (winter). Most of the variations in the transport seasonal cycle come from the mesoscale eddy component. The impinging mesoscale eddies increase the transport into the ECS during January, February, May, and October, and decrease it in March, April, November, and December, but have little effect in summer (June-September). The Kuroshio meander components cause smaller transport variations in summer than in winter.

  13. A comparison of the performance of the 3-D super-ensemble and an ensemble Kalman filter for short-range regional ocean prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baptiste Mourre

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This study compares the ability of two approaches integrating models and data to forecast the Ligurian Sea regional oceanographic conditions in the short-term range (0–72 hours when constrained by a common observation dataset. The post-processing 3-D super-ensemble (3DSE algorithm, which uses observations to optimally combine multi-model forecasts into a single prediction of the oceanic variable, is first considered. The 3DSE predictive skills are compared to those of the Regional Ocean Modeling System model in which observations are assimilated through a more conventional ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF approach. Assimilated measurements include sea surface temperature maps, and temperature and salinity subsurface observations from a fleet of five underwater gliders. Retrospective analyses are carried out to produce daily predictions during the 11-d period of the REP10 sea trial experiment. The forecast skill evaluation based on a distributed multi-sensor validation dataset indicates an overall superior performance of the EnKF, both at the surface and at depth. While the 3DSE and EnKF perform comparably well in the area spanned by the incorporated measurements, the 3DSE accuracy is found to rapidly decrease outside this area. In particular, the univariate formulation of the method combined with the absence of regular surface salinity measurements produces large errors in the 3DSE salinity forecast. On the contrary, the EnKF leads to more homogeneous forecast errors over the modelling domain for both temperature and salinity. The EnKF is found to consistently improve the predictions with respect to the control solution without assimilation and to be positively skilled when compared to the climatological estimate. For typical regional oceanographic applications with scarce subsurface observations, the lack of physical spatial and multivariate error covariances applicable to the individual model weights in the 3DSE formulation constitutes a major

  14. Collaborative Project. Understanding the effects of tides and eddies on the ocean dynamics, sea ice cover and decadal/centennial climate prediction using the Regional Arctic Climate Model (RACM)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hutchings, Jennifer [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States); Joseph, Renu [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States)

    2013-09-14

    The goal of this project is to develop an eddy resolving ocean model (POP) with tides coupled to a sea ice model (CICE) within the Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) to investigate the importance of ocean tides and mesoscale eddies in arctic climate simulations and quantify biases associated with these processes and how their relative contribution may improve decadal to centennial arctic climate predictions. Ocean, sea ice and coupled arctic climate response to these small scale processes will be evaluated with regard to their influence on mass, momentum and property exchange between oceans, shelf-basin, ice-ocean, and ocean-atmosphere. The project will facilitate the future routine inclusion of polar tides and eddies in Earth System Models when computing power allows. As such, the proposed research addresses the science in support of the BER’s Climate and Environmental Sciences Division Long Term Measure as it will improve the ocean and sea ice model components as well as the fully coupled RASM and Community Earth System Model (CESM) and it will make them more accurate and computationally efficient.

  15. An Intercomparison of Predicted Sea Ice Concentration from Global Ocean Forecast System & Arctic Cap Nowcast/Forecast System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosemond, K.

    2015-12-01

    The objective of this research is to provide an evaluation of improvements in marginal ice zone (MIZ) and pack ice estimations from the Global Ocean Forecast System (GOFS) model compared to the current operational model, the Arctic Cap Nowcast/Forecast System (ACNFS). This will be determined by an intercomparison between the subjectively estimated operational ice concentration data from the National Ice Center (NIC) MIZ analysis and the ice concentration estimates from GOFS and ACNFS. This will help ascertain which nowcast from the models compares best to the NIC operational data stream needed for vessel support. It will also provide a quantitative assessment of GOFS and ACNFS performance and be used in the Operational Evaluation (OPEVAL) report from the NIC to NRL. The intercomparison results are based on statistical evaluations through a series of map overlays from both models ACNFS, GOFS with the NIC's MIZ data. All data was transformed to a common grid and difference maps were generated to determine which model had the greatest difference compared to the MIZ ice concentrations. This was provided daily for both the freeze-up and meltout seasons. Results indicated the GOFS model surpassed the ACNFS model, however both models were comparable. These results will help US Navy and NWS Anchorage ice forecasters understand model biases and know which model guidance is likely to provide the best estimate of future ice conditions.The objective of this research is to provide an evaluation of improvements in marginal ice zone (MIZ) and pack ice estimations from the Global Ocean Forecast System (GOFS) model compared to the current operational model, the Arctic Cap Nowcast/Forecast System (ACNFS). This will be determined by an intercomparison between the subjectively estimated operational ice concentration data from the National Ice Center (NIC) MIZ analysis and the ice concentration estimates from GOFS and ACNFS. This will help ascertain which nowcast from the models

  16. Documentation for the NOAA Atlantic Real-Time Ocean Forecast System (RTOFS) models from the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) (NODC Accession 0026419)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This NODC accession contains documentation files that apply to all data collections archived at NODC relating to the NOAA Atlantic Real-Time Ocean Forecast System...

  17. Robust Prediction of pH and Carbonate Mineral Saturation State in the North Pacific Ocean Using Empirical Relationships with Hydrographic Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juranek, L. W.; Feely, R. A.; Alin, S. R.; Emerson, S. R.; Quay, P.

    2010-12-01

    The subarctic North Pacific has recently attracted attention as a region particularly sensitive to ocean acidification, warranting ongoing observing and monitoring efforts. Here, cold surface waters drive an enhanced solubility pump which aids surface ocean uptake of anthropogenic CO2, while intermediate-depth waters bearing the signature of the biological pump (CO2-rich, O2-poor) accumulated over basin-transit timescales penetrate upwards to depths of 200-300m. Thus, the surface pelagic community is subject to acidification from above and below, arising from both natural and anthropogenic causes. Unfortunately, detailed time-series of water-column carbon measurements are not available for this region, hindering efforts to understand scales of natural variability and vulnerability to future change. In order to parlay available carbon data toward this end, we developed empirical relationships between commonly available hydrographic parameters (i.e., temperature, O2) and pH, aragonite saturation state (Ωarag), and calcite saturation state (Ωcalc) using high-quality data from two recent cruises along 152°W: CLIVAR P16N (March 2006) and STUD08 (September, 2008). For the subarctic region (40-55°N), r2 values of >0.98 and root mean square errors of 0.016 (pH), 0.049 (Ωarag), and 0.078 (Ωcalc) were attained for data between 50-500m, with O2 explaining the majority ( >95%) of the variability. Comparable statistics are achieved for subtropical data, although temperature plays an increasingly prominent role in explaining observed variability compared to the subarctic region. Although the errors of this approach prohibit it from being used to resolve secular trends in carbon system parameters, the relationships will provide insight into seasonal controls on pH, Ωarag, and Ωcalc,and could be used to predict these variables from autonomous platforms.

  18. Multilevel vector autoregressive prediction of sea surface temperature in the North Tropical Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Dong Eun; Chapman, David; Henderson, Naomi; Chen, Chen; Cane, Mark A.

    2016-07-01

    We use a multilevel vector autoregressive model (VAR-L), to forecast sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the Atlantic hurricane Main Development Region (MDR). VAR-L is a linear regression model using global SSTA data from L prior months as predictors. In hindcasts for the recent 30 years, the multilevel VAR-L outperforms a state-of-the-art dynamic forecast model, as well as the commonly used linear inverse model (LIM). The multilevel VAR-L model shows skill in 6-12 month forecasts, with its greatest skill in the months of the active hurricane season. The optimized model for the best long-range skill score in the MDR, chosen by a cross-validation procedure, has 12 time levels and 12 empirical orthogonal function modes. We investigate the optimal initial conditions for MDR SSTA prediction using a generalized singular vector decomposition of the propagation matrix. We find that the added temporal degrees of freedom for the predictands in VAR12 as compared with a LIM model, which allow the model to capture both the local wind-evaporation-SST feedback in the Tropical Atlantic and the impact on the Atlantic of an improved medium-range ENSO forecast, elevate the long-range forecast skill in the MDR.

  19. Argo大洋观测资料的同化及其在短期气候预测和海洋分析中的应用%Argo Global Ocean Data Assimilation and Its Applications in Short-Term Climate Prediction and Oceanic Analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张人禾; 朱江; 许建平; 刘益民; 李清泉; 牛涛

    2013-01-01

    The implementation of the international Array for Real-time Geostrophic Oceanography (Argo) Project facilitates unprecedented global ocean observations of sea-water temperature and salinity from the sea surface to a depth of 2000 m. Application of these new oceanic data in atmospheric and oceanic research and operation is essential for understanding the atmospheric and oceanic variability and increasing the accuracy of climate prediction and oceanic monitoring and analysis. The global ocean data assimilation systems are set up by developing a nonlinear temperature-salinity coordinated assimilation scheme and adjusting the temperature and salinity on the basis of altimetry data, which enhances the monitoring and analyzing capability for the global ocean. The global ocean data assimilation systems are integrated with coupled atmosphere-ocean models, which increases the forecast skills for short-term climate prediction. Argo data are applied for improving physical parameterization schemes in oceanic models, and the model capability of describing the real oceans and forecasting El Nino/Southern Oscillation is increased. A novel method has been developed for estimating surface and mid-layer ocean currents on the basis of the trajectories of Argo float drifting, which improves the accuracy of estimation of global surface and mid-layer ocean currents and makes up the insufficiency in observed ocean currents.%国际Argo(Array for Real-time Geostrophic Oceanography)计划的实施,提供了前所未有的全球深海大洋0~2000 m水深范围内的海水温度和盐度观测资料,在大气和海洋科研业务中应用这一全新的资料,是深入认识大气和海洋变异、提高我国气候预测、海洋监测分析和预报能力的一个关键所在.通过开发非线性温—盐协调同化方案和利用同化高度计资料来调整模式的温度和盐度场,建立了可同化包括Argo等多种海洋观测资料的全球海洋资料变分同化系统,提

  20. Natural Ocean Carbon Cycle Sensitivity to Parameterizations of the Recycling in a Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romanou, A.; Romanski, J.; Gregg, W. W.

    2014-01-01

    Sensitivities of the oceanic biological pump within the GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies ) climate modeling system are explored here. Results are presented from twin control simulations of the air-sea CO2 gas exchange using two different ocean models coupled to the same atmosphere. The two ocean models (Russell ocean model and Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model, HYCOM) use different vertical coordinate systems, and therefore different representations of column physics. Both variants of the GISS climate model are coupled to the same ocean biogeochemistry module (the NASA Ocean Biogeochemistry Model, NOBM), which computes prognostic distributions for biotic and abiotic fields that influence the air-sea flux of CO2 and the deep ocean carbon transport and storage. In particular, the model differences due to remineralization rate changes are compared to differences attributed to physical processes modeled differently in the two ocean models such as ventilation, mixing, eddy stirring and vertical advection. GISSEH(GISSER) is found to underestimate mixed layer depth compared to observations by about 55% (10 %) in the Southern Ocean and overestimate it by about 17% (underestimate by 2%) in the northern high latitudes. Everywhere else in the global ocean, the two models underestimate the surface mixing by about 12-34 %, which prevents deep nutrients from reaching the surface and promoting primary production there. Consequently, carbon export is reduced because of reduced production at the surface. Furthermore, carbon export is particularly sensitive to remineralization rate changes in the frontal regions of the subtropical gyres and at the Equator and this sensitivity in the model is much higher than the sensitivity to physical processes such as vertical mixing, vertical advection and mesoscale eddy transport. At depth, GISSER, which has a significant warm bias, remineralizes nutrients and carbon faster thereby producing more nutrients and carbon at depth, which

  1. Data Assimilation in Ocean Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-06-07

    contour plots of the estimates of the sea surface height ( SSH ) for the top layer after 5 Topex/ Poseidon simulated repeat cycles. The top plot in Figure... SSH ): Top: SSH for the actual truth; middle: SSH with no data assimilation; and bottom: SSH with data assimilation from satellite altimetry. Darker...regions are deeper, lighter regions are higher. 2: RMSE of the SSH for the top two layers. The lower curve is the RMSE for the surface layer while the

  2. Navy Nearshore Ocean Prediction Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-09-01

    it does often indicate significantly lower wave energy levels than those estimated by SWAN from the WW3 boundary spectra. In this case, the...presented at the 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, April 20, 2012, Ponte Vedra Beach, FL, abstract at https://ams.confex.com/ams

  3. A numerical estimation of the impact of Stokes drift on upper ocean temperature

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Xiaoshuang; WANG Zhifeng; WANG Bin; WU Kejian; HAN Guijun; LI Wei

    2014-01-01

    The impact of Stokes drift on the mixed layer temperature variation was estimated by taking into account an advective heat transport term induced by the Stokes drift in the equation of mixed layer temperature and using the oceanic and wave parameters from a global ocean circulation model (HYCOM) and a wave model ( Wave Watch III). The dimensional analysis and quantitative estimation method were conducted to assess the importance of the effect induced by the Stokes drift and to analyze its spatial distribution and seasonal variation characteristics. Results show that the contribution of the Stokes drift to the mixed layer tempera-ture variation at mid-to-high latitudes is comparable with that of the mean current, and a substantial part of mixed layer temperature change is induced by taking the Stokes drift effect into account. Although the advection heat transport induced by the Stokes drift is not the leading term for the mixed layer temperature equation, it cannot be neglected and even becomes critical in some regions for the simulation of the upper-ocean temperature.

  4. Experimental Confirmation of Nonlinear-Model- Predictive Control Applied Offline to a Permanent Magnet Linear Generator for Ocean-Wave Energy Conversion

    KAUST Repository

    Tom, Nathan

    2015-01-01

    To further maximize power absorption in both regular and irregular ocean wave environments, nonlinear-model-predictive control (NMPC) was applied to a model-scale point absorber developed at the University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA. The NMPC strategy requires a power-takeoff (PTO) unit that could be turned on and off, as the generator would be inactive for up to 60% of the wave period. To confirm the effectiveness of this NMPC strategy, an in-house-designed permanent magnet linear generator (PMLG) was chosen as the PTO. The time-varying performance of the PMLG was first characterized by dry-bench tests, using mechanical relays to control the electromagnetic conversion process. The on/off sequencing of the PMLG was tested under regular and irregular wave excitation to validate NMPC simulations using control inputs obtained from running the choice optimizer offline. Experimental results indicate that successful implementation was achieved and absorbed power using NMPC was up to 50% greater than the passive system, which utilized no controller. Previous investigations into MPC applied to wave energy converters have lacked the experimental results to confirm the reported gains in power absorption. However, after considering the PMLG mechanical-to-electrical conversion efficiency, the electrical power output was not consistently maximized. To improve output power, a mathematical relation between the efficiency and damping magnitude of the PMLG was inserted in the system model to maximize the electrical power output through continued use of NMPC which helps separate this work from previous investigators. Of significance, results from latter simulations provided a damping time series that was active over a larger portion of the wave period requiring the actuation of the applied electrical load, rather than on/off control.

  5. Preface to: Indian Ocean biogeochemical processes and ecological variability

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Hood, R.R.; Naqvi, S.W.A.; Wiggert, J.D.

    . This is partly because the Indian Ocean re mains substantially under sampled, in both space and time, compared to the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. The situation is compounded by the Indian Ocean being a dynamically complex and highly variable system under... derstanding of the atmospheric and oceanic variability in the Indian Ocean, the Climate Variability and Predictability pro gram (CL1VAR) and the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) are deploying a basin-wide observing system in the Indian Ocean. As well...

  6. Prediction

    CERN Document Server

    Sornette, Didier

    2010-01-01

    This chapter first presents a rather personal view of some different aspects of predictability, going in crescendo from simple linear systems to high-dimensional nonlinear systems with stochastic forcing, which exhibit emergent properties such as phase transitions and regime shifts. Then, a detailed correspondence between the phenomenology of earthquakes, financial crashes and epileptic seizures is offered. The presented statistical evidence provides the substance of a general phase diagram for understanding the many facets of the spatio-temporal organization of these systems. A key insight is to organize the evidence and mechanisms in terms of two summarizing measures: (i) amplitude of disorder or heterogeneity in the system and (ii) level of coupling or interaction strength among the system's components. On the basis of the recently identified remarkable correspondence between earthquakes and seizures, we present detailed information on a class of stochastic point processes that has been found to be particu...

  7. Quality-Controlled Underway Oceanographic and Meteorological Data from the Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Predictions Center (COAPS) - Shipboard Automated Meteorological and Oceanographic System (SAMOS)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Florida State University has been operating a data assembly center (DAC) to collect, quality evaluate, and distribute Shipboard Automated Meteorological and...

  8. Mississippi State University Center for Air Sea Technology. FY93 and FY 94 Research Program in Navy Ocean Modeling and Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    1994-09-30

    model to the Navy. The Co-Principal Investigators are CAST researchers Dr. David E. Dietrich and Mr. Alberto Mestas - Nunez. With the Navy’s new...Applications Mr. Alberto Mestas -Nunez An Evaluation of ECMWF-Based 20 May 93 College of Oceanic Sci. Climatological Wind Stress Fields Oregon State...to assist in data browser applications. Oregon State UniversiLy. CAST employed graduate student Mr. Alberto Mestas - Nunez to assist in ocean modeling

  9. Ocean Observations of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chambers, Don

    2016-01-01

    The ocean influences climate by storing and transporting large amounts of heat, freshwater, and carbon, and exchanging these properties with the atmosphere. About 93% of the excess heat energy stored by the earth over the last 50 years is found in the ocean. More than three quarters of the total exchange of water between the atmosphere and the earth's surface through evaporation and precipitation takes place over the oceans. The ocean contains 50 times more carbon than the atmosphere and is at present acting to slow the rate of climate change by absorbing one quarter of human emissions of carbon dioxide from fossil fuel burning, cement production, deforestation and other land use change.Here I summarize the observational evidence of change in the ocean, with an emphasis on basin- and global-scale changes relevant to climate. These include: changes in subsurface ocean temperature and heat content, evidence for regional changes in ocean salinity and their link to changes in evaporation and precipitation over the oceans, evidence of variability and change of ocean current patterns relevant to climate, observations of sea level change and predictions over the next century, and biogeochemical changes in the ocean, including ocean acidification.

  10. Ocean technology

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Peshwe, V.B.

    stream_size 2 stream_content_type text/plain stream_name Voices_Oceans_1996_113.pdf.txt stream_source_info Voices_Oceans_1996_113.pdf.txt Content-Encoding ISO-8859-1 Content-Type text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1 ...

  11. Oceanic archipelagos

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Triantis, Kostas A.; Whittaker, Robert James; Fernández-Palacios, José María;

    2016-01-01

    Since the contributions of Charles Darwin and Alfred Russel Wallace, oceanic archipelagos have played a central role in the development of biogeography. However, despite the critical influence of oceanic islands on ecological and evolutionary theory, our focus has remained limited to either the i...

  12. Ocean acidification

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Gattuso, J.P; Hansson, L

    2011-01-01

    The fate of much of the CO 2 we produce will be to enter the ocean. In a sense, we are fortunate that ocean water is endowed with the capacity to absorb far more CO 2 per litre than were it salt free...

  13. Volcanic signals in oceans

    KAUST Repository

    Stenchikov, Georgiy L.

    2009-08-22

    Sulfate aerosols resulting from strong volcanic explosions last for 2–3 years in the lower stratosphere. Therefore it was traditionally believed that volcanic impacts produce mainly short-term, transient climate perturbations. However, the ocean integrates volcanic radiative cooling and responds over a wide range of time scales. The associated processes, especially ocean heat uptake, play a key role in ongoing climate change. However, they are not well constrained by observations, and attempts to simulate them in current climate models used for climate predictions yield a range of uncertainty. Volcanic impacts on the ocean provide an independent means of assessing these processes. This study focuses on quantification of the seasonal to multidecadal time scale response of the ocean to explosive volcanism. It employs the coupled climate model CM2.1, developed recently at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration\\'s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, to simulate the response to the 1991 Pinatubo and the 1815 Tambora eruptions, which were the largest in the 20th and 19th centuries, respectively. The simulated climate perturbations compare well with available observations for the Pinatubo period. The stronger Tambora forcing produces responses with higher signal-to-noise ratio. Volcanic cooling tends to strengthen the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Sea ice extent appears to be sensitive to volcanic forcing, especially during the warm season. Because of the extremely long relaxation time of ocean subsurface temperature and sea level, the perturbations caused by the Tambora eruption could have lasted well into the 20th century.

  14. How well does wind speed predict air-sea gas transfer in the sea ice zone? A synthesis of radon deficit profiles in the upper water column of the Arctic Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loose, B.; Kelly, R. P.; Bigdeli, A.; Williams, W.; Krishfield, R.; Rutgers van der Loeff, M.; Moran, S. B.

    2017-05-01

    We present 34 profiles of radon-deficit from the ice-ocean boundary layer of the Beaufort Sea. Including these 34, there are presently 58 published radon-deficit estimates of air-sea gas transfer velocity (k) in the Arctic Ocean; 52 of these estimates were derived from water covered by 10% sea ice or more. The average value of k collected since 2011 is 4.0 ± 1.2 m d-1. This exceeds the quadratic wind speed prediction of weighted kws = 2.85 m d-1 with mean-weighted wind speed of 6.4 m s-1. We show how ice cover changes the mixed-layer radon budget, and yields an "effective gas transfer velocity." We use these 58 estimates to statistically evaluate the suitability of a wind speed parameterization for k, when the ocean surface is ice covered. Whereas the six profiles taken from the open ocean indicate a statistically good fit to wind speed parameterizations, the same parameterizations could not reproduce k from the sea ice zone. We conclude that techniques for estimating k in the open ocean cannot be similarly applied to determine k in the presence of sea ice. The magnitude of k through gaps in the ice may reach high values as ice cover increases, possibly as a result of focused turbulence dissipation at openings in the free surface. These 58 profiles are presently the most complete set of estimates of k across seasons and variable ice cover; as dissolved tracer budgets they reflect air-sea gas exchange with no impact from air-ice gas exchange.

  15. Ocean deoxygenation in a warming world.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keeling, Ralph E; Körtzinger, Arne; Gruber, Nicolas

    2010-01-01

    Ocean warming and increased stratification of the upper ocean caused by global climate change will likely lead to declines in dissolved O2 in the ocean interior (ocean deoxygenation) with implications for ocean productivity, nutrient cycling, carbon cycling, and marine habitat. Ocean models predict declines of 1 to 7% in the global ocean O2 inventory over the next century, with declines continuing for a thousand years or more into the future. An important consequence may be an expansion in the area and volume of so-called oxygen minimum zones, where O2 levels are too low to support many macrofauna and profound changes in biogeochemical cycling occur. Significant deoxygenation has occurred over the past 50 years in the North Pacific and tropical oceans, suggesting larger changes are looming. The potential for larger O2 declines in the future suggests the need for an improved observing system for tracking ocean 02 changes.

  16. Oceanic archipelagos

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Triantis, Kostas A.; Whittaker, Robert James; Fernández-Palacios, José María

    2016-01-01

    Since the contributions of Charles Darwin and Alfred Russel Wallace, oceanic archipelagos have played a central role in the development of biogeography. However, despite the critical influence of oceanic islands on ecological and evolutionary theory, our focus has remained limited to either...... the island-level of specific archipelagos or single archipelagos. Recently, it was proposed that oceanic archipelagos qualify as biotic provinces, with diversity primarily reflecting a balance between speciation and extinction, with colonization having a minor role. Here we focus on major attributes...... of the archipelagic geological dynamics that can affect diversity at both the island and the archipelagic level. We also reaffirm that oceanic archipelagos are appropriate spatiotemporal units to frame analyses in order to understand large scale patterns of biodiversity....

  17. Ocean Acidification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ocean and coastal acidification is an emerging issue caused by increasing amounts of carbon dioxide being absorbed by seawater. Changing seawater chemistry impacts marine life, ecosystem services, and humans. Learn what EPA is doing and what you can do.

  18. Ocean Color

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Satellite-derived Ocean Color Data sets from historical and currently operational NASA and International Satellite missions including the NASA Coastal Zone Color...

  19. Predictive habitat modelling as a tool to assess the change in distribution and extent of an OSPAR priority habitat under an increased ocean temperature scenario: consequences for marine protected area networks and management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gormley, Kate S G; Porter, Joanne S; Bell, Michael C; Hull, Angela D; Sanderson, William G

    2013-01-01

    The aims of this study were to determine the extent and distribution of an OSPAR priority habitat under current baseline ocean temperatures; to illustrate the prospect for habitat loss under a changing ocean temperature scenario; and to demonstrate the potential application of predictive habitat mapping in "future-proofing" conservation and biodiversity management. Maxent modelling and GIS environmental envelope analysis of the biogenic bed forming species, Modiolus modiolus was carried out. The Maxent model was tested and validated using 75%/25% training/test occurrence records and validated against two sampling biases (the whole study area and a 20km buffer). The model was compared to the envelope analysis and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (Area Under the curve; AUC) was evaluated. The performance of the Maxent model was rated as 'good' to 'excellent' on all replicated runs and low variation in the runs was recorded from the AUC values. The extent of "most suitable", "less suitable" and "unsuitable" habitat was calculated for the baseline year (2009) and the projected increased ocean temperature scenarios (2030, 2050, 2080 and 2100). A loss of 100% of "most suitable" habitat was reported by 2080. Maintaining a suitable level of protection of marine habitats/species of conservation importance may require management of the decline and migration rather than maintenance of present extent. Methods applied in this study provide the initial application of a plausible "conservation management tool".

  20. Predictive habitat modelling as a tool to assess the change in distribution and extent of an OSPAR priority habitat under an increased ocean temperature scenario: consequences for marine protected area networks and management.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kate S G Gormley

    Full Text Available The aims of this study were to determine the extent and distribution of an OSPAR priority habitat under current baseline ocean temperatures; to illustrate the prospect for habitat loss under a changing ocean temperature scenario; and to demonstrate the potential application of predictive habitat mapping in "future-proofing" conservation and biodiversity management. Maxent modelling and GIS environmental envelope analysis of the biogenic bed forming species, Modiolus modiolus was carried out. The Maxent model was tested and validated using 75%/25% training/test occurrence records and validated against two sampling biases (the whole study area and a 20km buffer. The model was compared to the envelope analysis and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (Area Under the curve; AUC was evaluated. The performance of the Maxent model was rated as 'good' to 'excellent' on all replicated runs and low variation in the runs was recorded from the AUC values. The extent of "most suitable", "less suitable" and "unsuitable" habitat was calculated for the baseline year (2009 and the projected increased ocean temperature scenarios (2030, 2050, 2080 and 2100. A loss of 100% of "most suitable" habitat was reported by 2080. Maintaining a suitable level of protection of marine habitats/species of conservation importance may require management of the decline and migration rather than maintenance of present extent. Methods applied in this study provide the initial application of a plausible "conservation management tool".

  1. Impacts of Ocean Acidification

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bijma, Jelle (Alfred Wegener Inst., D-27570 Bremerhaven (Germany)) (and others)

    2009-08-15

    There is growing scientific evidence that, as a result of increasing anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) emissions, absorption of CO{sub 2} by the oceans has already noticeably increased the average oceanic acidity from pre-industrial levels. This global threat requires a global response. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), continuing CO{sub 2} emissions in line with current trends could make the oceans up to 150% more acidic by 2100 than they were at the beginning of the Anthropocene. Acidification decreases the ability of the ocean to absorb additional atmospheric CO{sub 2}, which implies that future CO{sub 2} emissions are likely to lead to more rapid global warming. Ocean acidification is also problematic because of its negative effects on marine ecosystems, especially marine calcifying organisms, and marine resources and services upon which human societies largely depend such as energy, water, and fisheries. For example, it is predicted that by 2100 around 70% of all cold-water corals, especially those in the higher latitudes, will live in waters undersaturated in carbonate due to ocean acidification. Recent research indicates that ocean acidification might also result in increasing levels of jellyfish in some marine ecosystems. Aside from direct effects, ocean acidification together with other global change-induced impacts such as marine and coastal pollution and the introduction of invasive alien species are likely to result in more fragile marine ecosystems, making them more vulnerable to other environmental impacts resulting from, for example, coastal deforestation and widescale fisheries. The Marine Board-ESF Position Paper on the Impacts of Climate Change on the European Marine and Coastal Environment - Ecosystems indicated that presenting ocean acidification issues to policy makers is a key issue and challenge. Indeed, as the consequences of ocean acidification are expected to emerge rapidly and drastically, but are

  2. The Predictability of Large-Scale, Short-Period Ocean Variability in the Philippine Sea and the Influence of Such Variability on Long-Range Acoustic Propagation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-09-30

    forward problem for calculating travel times of the early ray arrivals and late mode arrivals in long-range acoustic transmissions and to understand the...sampling associated with those arrivals. The better the understanding of the forward problem , the better acoustic data can be used to understand...general aim has been to use the acoustic data to test and improve such models. These models or state estimates do not resolve the ocean down to the

  3. Performance of a Dynamic Initialization Scheme in the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System for Tropical Cyclones (COAMPS-TC)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-10-01

    hypotenuse of the black right triangle indicates the approximate location of the ocean surface. 654 W E A T H E R A N D F O R E C A S T I N G VOLUME 26...become a category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 115 kt at 0600 UTC 19 August. After passing approxi- mately 125 n mi west of Bermuda , Bill

  4. Oceanographic and surface meteorological data collected from station tas by University of South Florida (USF) Coastal Ocean Monitoring and Prediction System (USF) and assembled by Southeast Coastal Ocean Observing Regional Association (SECOORA) in the Coastal Waters of Florida and North Atlantic Ocean from 2014-02-13 to 2015-01-22 (NODC Accession 0118792)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NODC Accession 0118792 contains oceanographic and surface meteorological data in netCDF formatted files, which follow the Climate and Forecast metadata convention...

  5. Oceanographic and surface meteorological data collected from station shp by University of South Florida (USF) Coastal Ocean Monitoring and Prediction System (USF) and assembled by Southeast Coastal Ocean Observing Regional Association (SECOORA) in the Coastal Waters of Florida and North Atlantic Ocean from 2014-02-13 to 2015-01-29 (NODC Accession 0118791)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NODC Accession 0118791 contains oceanographic and surface meteorological data in netCDF formatted files, which follow the Climate and Forecast metadata convention...

  6. Oceanographic and surface meteorological data collected from station apk by University of South Florida (USF) Coastal Ocean Monitoring and Prediction System (USF) and assembled by Southeast Coastal Ocean Observing Regional Association (SECOORA) in the Coastal Waters of Florida and North Atlantic Ocean from 2014-02-13 to 2015-01-29 (NODC Accession 0118740)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NODC Accession 0118740 contains oceanographic and surface meteorological data in netCDF formatted files, which follow the Climate and Forecast metadata convention...

  7. Oceanographic and surface meteorological data collected from station bcp by University of South Florida (USF) Coastal Ocean Monitoring and Prediction System (USF) and assembled by Southeast Coastal Ocean Observing Regional Association (SECOORA) in the Coastal Waters of Florida, Gulf of Mexico and North Atlantic Ocean from 2014-02-13 to 2015-01-29 (NODC Accession 0118786)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NODC Accession 0118786 contains oceanographic and surface meteorological data in netCDF formatted files, which follow the Climate and Forecast metadata convention...

  8. Oceanographic and surface meteorological data collected from station nfb by University of South Florida (USF) Coastal Ocean Monitoring and Prediction System (USF) and assembled by Southeast Coastal Ocean Observing Regional Association (SECOORA) in the Coastal Waters of Florida, Gulf of Mexico and North Atlantic Ocean from 2014-02-13 to 2015-01-29 (NODC Accession 0118790)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NODC Accession 0118790 contains oceanographic and surface meteorological data in netCDF formatted files, which follow the Climate and Forecast metadata convention...

  9. Oceanographic and surface meteorological data collected from station sun2 by Carolinas Coastal Ocean Observing and Prediction System (Caro-COOPS) and assembled by Southeast Coastal Ocean Observing Regional Association (SECOORA) in the North Atlantic Ocean from 2014-02-13 to 2016-05-31 (NODC Accession 0118741)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NCEI Accession 0118741 contains oceanographic and surface meteorological data in netCDF formatted files, which follow the Climate and Forecast metadata convention...

  10. Arctic Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parkinson, Claire L.; Zukor, Dorothy J. (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    The Arctic Ocean is the smallest of the Earth's four major oceans, covering 14x10(exp 6) sq km located entirely within the Arctic Circle (66 deg 33 min N). It is a major player in the climate of the north polar region and has a variable sea ice cover that tends to increase its sensitivity to climate change. Its temperature, salinity, and ice cover have all undergone changes in the past several decades, although it is uncertain whether these predominantly reflect long-term trends, oscillations within the system, or natural variability. Major changes include a warming and expansion of the Atlantic layer, at depths of 200-900 m, a warming of the upper ocean in the Beaufort Sea, a considerable thinning (perhaps as high as 40%) of the sea ice cover, a lesser and uneven retreat of the ice cover (averaging approximately 3% per decade), and a mixed pattern of salinity increases and decreases.

  11. Estimation of the barrier layer thickness in the Indian Ocean using Aquarius Salinity.

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Felton, C.S.; Subrahmanyam, B.; Murty, V.S.N; Shriver, J.F.

    , as well as the advantages and disadvantages of the current model are discussed. BLT estimations using HYCOM simulations display large errors that are related to model layer structure and the selected BLT methodology....

  12. Oceans Past

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Based on research for the History of Marine Animal Populations project, Oceans Past examines the complex relationship our forebears had with the sea and the animals that inhabit it. It presents eleven studies ranging from fisheries and invasive species to offshore technology and the study of marine...... environmental history, bringing together the perspectives of historians and marine scientists to enhance understanding of ocean management of the past, present and future. In doing so, it also highlights the influence that changes in marine ecosystems have upon the politics, welfare and culture of human...

  13. Electrical conductivity of old oceanic mantle in the northwestern Pacific I: 1-D profiles suggesting differences in thermal structure not predictable from a plate cooling model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baba, Kiyoshi; Tada, Noriko; Matsuno, Tetsuo; Liang, Pengfei; Li, Ruibai; Zhang, Luolei; Shimizu, Hisayoshi; Abe, Natsue; Hirano, Naoto; Ichiki, Masahiro; Utada, Hisashi

    2017-08-01

    Seafloor magnetotelluric (MT) experiments were recently conducted in two areas of the northwestern Pacific to investigate the nature of the old oceanic upper mantle. The areas are far from any tectonic activity, and "normal" mantle structure is therefore expected. The data were carefully analyzed to reduce the effects of coastlines and seafloor topographic changes, which are significant boundaries in electrical conductivity and thus distort seafloor MT data. An isotropic, one-dimensional electrical conductivity profile was estimated for each area. The profiles were compared with those obtained from two previous study areas in the northwestern Pacific. Between the four profiles, significant differences were observed in the thickness of the resistive layer beyond expectations based on cooling of homogeneous oceanic lithosphere over time. This surprising feature is now further clarified from what was suggested in a previous study. To explain the observed spatial variation, dynamic processes must be introduced, such as influence of the plume associated with the formation of the Shatsky Rise, or spatially non-uniform, small-scale convection in the asthenosphere. There is significant room of further investigation to determine a reasonable and comprehensive interpretation of the lithosphere-asthenosphere system beneath the northwestern Pacific. The present results demonstrate that electrical conductivity provides key information for such investigation.[Figure not available: see fulltext.

  14. Carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide in the North Indian Ocean

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    DileepKumar, M.; Naqvi, S.W.A.; Jayakumar, D.A.; George, M.D.; Narvekar, P.V.; DeSousa, S.N.

    The understanding of biogeochemical cycling of carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide in the oceans is essential for predicting the fate of anthropogenically emitted components. The North Indian Ocean, with its diverse regimes, provides us with a natural...

  15. 海潮模型在珠江口潮位预测中的精度评估%Accuracy Assessment of Tide Prediction Using Ocean Surge Model at Estuary of the Pearl River

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    尹小玲; 朱磊; 江辽

    2014-01-01

    结合卫星测高技术的海潮模型能方便、精确地模拟大洋潮汐,可用于缺乏观测资料的地区。为评估该方法在珠江河口潮位预测应用中的精度,本文采用NAO.99b、OTPS和WWT等3种海潮模型预测珠江口不同验潮站的潮位过程,与实测数据对比并计算误差均方根。分析结果表明,海潮模型可以较好地预测珠江河口区潮汐基本时间特征,潮位预测精度在一定区域、一定时段不低于传统的预测方法。口门附近尤其口外的预测精度明显高于口内;在洪水期精度下降但口外开阔区域影响较小;在口门处,潮优型河口湾的预测精度高于径流型河口。3种模型中,推荐使用WWT。%Using satel ite altimetry technique ,ocean tide model is able to simulate the oceanic tide conveniently and precisely and can be applied to the zones without observational data. In this paper, three models of NAO.99b, OTPS and WWT are used to predict the tidal processes at the stations around the mouths of the Pearl River estuaries in order to evaluate accuracy of the model method in this area. The errors of root mean square RMS of the predictions to the observations are calculated. The results demonstrate that the ocean models can forecast the basic time characteristics of the tides and have a higher precision than the traditional methods in certain areas during certain periods. The accuracy at the entrances, especial y just outside of the mouths, is evidently higher than that within. During flood season, the accuracy decreases but has less influence on the open areas outside of the mouths. The tidal dominant entrances have better predictions than the river dominant estuary. Among the three models, WWT model is recommended for its higher accuracy and greater adaptation.

  16. Evaluation of an ocean data assimilation system for Chinese marginal seas with a focus on the South China Sea

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XU Dazhi; LI Xichen; ZHU Jiang; QI Yiquan

    2011-01-01

    Data assimilation is a powerful tool to improve ocean forecasting by reducing uncertainties in forecast initial conditions. Recently, an ocean data assimilation system based on the ensemble optimal interpolation (EnOI) scheme and HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) for marginal seas around China was developed. This system can assimilate both satellite observations of sea surface temperature (SST) and along-track sea level anomaly (SLA) data. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the performance of the system. Two experiments were performed, which spanned a 3-year period from January 1, 2004 to December 30, 2006, with and without data assimilation. The data assimilation results were promising, with a positive impact on the modeled fields. The SST and SLA were clearly improved in terms of bias and root mean square error over the whole domain. In addition, the assimilations provided improvements in some regions to the surface field where mesoscale processes are not well simulated by the model. Comparisons with surface drifter trajectories showed that assimilated SST and SLA also better represent surface currents, with drifter trajectories fitting better to the contours of SLA field than that without assimilation. The forecasting capacity of this assimilation system was also evaluated through a case study of a birth-and-death process of an anticyclone eddy in the Northern South China Sea (NSCS), in which the anticyclone eddy was successfully hindcasted by the assimilation system. This study suggests the data assimilation system gives reasonable descriptions of the near-surface ocean state and can be applied to forecast mesoscale ocean processes in the marginal seas around China.

  17. Ocean circulation: its effects on seasonal sea-ice simulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hibler, W D; Bryan, K

    1984-05-04

    A diagnostic ice-ocean model of the Arctic, Greenland, and Norwegian seas is constructed and used to examine the role of ocean circulation in seasonal sea-ice simulations. The model includes lateral ice motion and three-dimensional ocean circulation. The ocean portion of the model is weakly forced by observed temperature and salinity data. Simulation results show that including modeled ocean circulation in seasonal sea-ice simulations substantially improves the predicted ice drift and ice margin location. Simulations that do not include lateral ocean movment predict a much less realistic ice edge.

  18. Modeling the ocean effect of geomagnetic storms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Nils; Kuvshinov, A.

    2004-01-01

    At coastal sites, geomagnetic variations for periods shorter than a few days are strongly distorted by the conductivity of the nearby sea-water. This phenomena, known as the ocean (or coast) effect, is strongest in the magnetic vertical component. We demonstrate the ability to predict the ocean...... if the oceans are considered. Our analysis also indicates a significant local time asymmetry (i.e., contributions from spherical harmonics other than P-I(0)), especially during the main phase of the storm....

  19. The microbial ocean from genomes to biomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeLong, Edward F

    2009-05-14

    Numerically, microbial species dominate the oceans, yet their population dynamics, metabolic complexity and synergistic interactions remain largely uncharted. A full understanding of life in the ocean requires more than knowledge of marine microbial taxa and their genome sequences. The latest experimental techniques and analytical approaches can provide a fresh perspective on the biological interactions within marine ecosystems, aiding in the construction of predictive models that can interrelate microbial dynamics with the biogeochemical matter and energy fluxes that make up the ocean ecosystem.

  20. S-N secular ocean tide: explanation of observably coastal velocities of increase of a global mean sea level and mean sea levels in northern and southern hemispheres and prediction of erroneous altimetry velocities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barkin, Yury

    2010-05-01

    The phenomenon of contrast secular changes of sea levels in the southern and northern hemispheres, predicted on the basis of geodynamic model about the forced relative oscillations and displacements of the Earth shells, has obtained a theoretical explanation. In northern hemisphere the mean sea level of ocean increases with velocity about 2.45±0.32 mm/yr, and in a southern hemisphere the mean sea level increases with velocity about 0.67±0.30 mm/yr. Theoretical values of velocity of increase of global mean sea level of ocean has been estimated in 1.61±0.36 mm/yr. 1 Introduction. The secular drift of the centre of mass of the Earth in the direction of North Pole with velocity about 12-20 mm/yr has been predicted by author in 1995 [1], [2], and now has confirmed with methods of space geodesy. For example the DORIS data in period 1999-2008 let us to estimate velocity of polar drift in 5.24±0.29 mm/yr [3]. To explain this fundamental planetary phenomenon it is possible only, having admitted, that similar northern drift tests the centre of mass of the liquid core relatively to the centre of mass of viscous-elastic and thermodynamically changeable mantle with velocity about 2-3 cm/yr in present [4]. The polar drift of the Earth core with huge superfluous mass results in slow increase of a gravity in northern hemisphere with a mean velocity about 1.4 ?Gal and to its decrease approximately with the same mean velocity in southern hemisphere [5]. This conclusion-prediction has obtained already a number of confirmations in precision gravimetric observations fulfilled in last decade around the world [6]. Naturally, a drift of the core is accompanied by the global changes (deformations) of all layers of the mantle and the core, by inversion changes of their tension states when in one hemisphere the tension increases and opposite on the contrary - decreases. Also it is possible that thermodynamical mechanism actively works with inversion properties of molting and

  1. A Prediction of Increase in Subglacial Volcanism Beneath the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) as Future Deglaciation Caused by Ocean Circulation Proceeds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Behrendt, J. C.; LeMasurier, W. E.

    2015-12-01

    Many decades of aeromagnetic surveying (e.g. Behrendt, 1964; 2013; and others) over the West Antarctic Ice sheet (WAIS) have shown >1000 high amplitude, shallow source magnetic anomalies interpreted as as indicating subglacial volcanic centers of late Cenozoic age to presently active. Similar anomalies exist over exposed volcanic rocks bordering the WAIS in places.Recent papers (e.g. Wouters et al., 2015; Paolo, et al.; 2015 and others) based on satellite altimetry have shown dramatic thinning and retreat of ice shelves, particularly those bordering the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas, caused by melting from circulation of warming sea water. Previous workers have shown that when ice shelves collapse, the ice streams previously dammed by them accelerate an order of magnitude higher velocity, and surface elevation decreases. GRACE satellite interpretations (e.g. Velicogna et al., and others) indicate mass loss of WAIS in recent years.The bed elevation beneath the WAIS deepens inland from the Amundsen and Bellingshausen coasts, although high relief volcanic topography is present in a number of areas beneath the ice.Crowley et a. (2015) have shown that glacial cycles may drive production of oceanic crust by lowering pressure in the mantle resulting in increased melting and magma production. Increased volcanism due to deglaciation in Iceland has apparently produced increased in volcanic activity there. Deglaciation of the Norwegian continental shelf has resulted in faulting of the sea floor and similar faulting has been reported of the Ross Sea shelf following deglaciation there.I suggest here that as the WAIS collapses in the future resulting from climate change, an increase in volcanic activity beneath the ice might be expected. This may provide a feedback mechanism for increase in ice melting.

  2. The ocean's role in climate variability

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CHEN Dake

    2008-01-01

    Because of its vast volume and heat capacity, the ocean contains most of the memory of the earth's ocean - atmosphere coupled system. It has been suggested that the ocean may delay global warming by absorbing large amounts of heat, that it may cause ab- rupt climate change due to its disrupted thermohaline circulation, and that it may set the time-scales for various climate oscilla- tions. Although the slow pace and persistence of oceanic variations give hope to long-range prediction, there still exist large uncer- tainties in climate predictability. Presently available observations and models are generally inadequate for studying and predicting long-term climate changes. However, some short-term fluctuations such as ENSO have been well studied and shown to be highly predictable even with simplified models.

  3. Planet Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Afonso, Isabel

    2014-05-01

    A more adequate name for Planet Earth could be Planet Ocean, seeing that ocean water covers more than seventy percent of the planet's surface and plays a fundamental role in the survival of almost all living species. Actually, oceans are aqueous solutions of extraordinary importance due to its direct implications in the current living conditions of our planet and its potential role on the continuity of life as well, as long as we know how to respect the limits of its immense but finite capacities. We may therefore state that natural aqueous solutions are excellent contexts for the approach and further understanding of many important chemical concepts, whether they be of chemical equilibrium, acid-base reactions, solubility and oxidation-reduction reactions. The topic of the 2014 edition of GIFT ('Our Changing Planet') will explore some of the recent complex changes of our environment, subjects that have been lately included in Chemistry teaching programs. This is particularly relevant on high school programs, with themes such as 'Earth Atmosphere: radiation, matter and structure', 'From Atmosphere to the Ocean: solutions on Earth and to Earth', 'Spring Waters and Public Water Supply: Water acidity and alkalinity'. These are the subjects that I want to develop on my school project with my pupils. Geographically, our school is located near the sea in a region where a stream flows into the sea. Besides that, our school water comes from a borehole which shows that the quality of the water we use is of significant importance. This project will establish and implement several procedures that, supported by physical and chemical analysis, will monitor the quality of water - not only the water used in our school, but also the surrounding waters (stream and beach water). The samples will be collected in the borehole of the school, in the stream near the school and in the beach of Carcavelos. Several physical-chemical characteristics related to the quality of the water will

  4. Development and Implementation of Sargassum Early Advisory System (SEAS): Phase One By Brandon N. Hill Ocean and Coastal Resources bhill8901@yahoo.com Robert K. Webster Ph.D. Candidate, Marine Sciences Department captrwebster@aol.com Texas A & M University at Galveston P.O. Box 1675 Galveston, Texas 77553

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, B. N.; Webster, R.; Frazier, J.; Linton, T.

    2013-12-01

    Abstract: Sargassum is a crucial aspect of many oceanic and coastal environments. However, it can inundate a coast if the conditions permit excessive growth and landings. In nature this is not a detriment to the beaches, but actually serves to reduce erosion and provide nutrients. When beaches are relied upon to support the tourism industry abnormally excessive Sargassum landings can become an impediment. This creates a struggle between the environmental good of the beach and the economic good of the tourism industry. The Sargassum Early Advisory System (SEAS) Phase One focuses on increasing the efficiency of the current beach management practices. Phase One begins with the effort to employ NASA Landsat images as early warning devices of Sargassum's impending landfall. Oceanic currents as well as coastal wind patterns are hypothesized to be the primary drivers of Sargassum. The Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) as well as the Texas Automated Buoy System (TABS), Weatherbuoy, and beach cameras are used to receive real time data as well as future predictions to allow for the creation of accurate macroalgae forecasts. Landsat imagery has a sufficient resolution that slicks created by the Sargassum's disruption of the water surface can be differentiated. The Landsat's RGB array allows it to identify large Sargassum mats by a distinct green glow. The SEAS Team has created a 555 km X 516 km swath of monitoring that provides two to three week notices of eminent Sargasssum landfall. The remote sensing data is crosschecked with ground-truthing via mounted beach cameras and boating contacts. The SEAS Team creates advisories that are sent out to local beach managers and other stakeholders. These advisories allow for the beach managers to more efficiently allocate resources. If Sargassum is not observed in the Landsat images then beach managers are able to scale back the workforce and equipment committed to removing the Sargassum from the beach. If an excess of Sargassum is

  5. Ocean Uses: Hawaii (PROUA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This Pacific Regional Ocean Uses Atlas (PROUA) Project is an innovative partnership between NOAA and the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) designed to...

  6. Integrating biogeochemistry and ecology into ocean data assimilation systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brasseur, Pierre; Gruber, Nicolas; Barciela, Rosa

    2009-01-01

    Monitoring and predicting the biogeochemical state of the ocean and marine ecosystems is an important application of operational oceanography that needs to be expanded. The accurate depiction of the ocean's physical environment enabled by Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment (GODAE) systems...

  7. Water exchange through the Kerama Gap estimated with a 25-year Pacific HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Wenzheng; Yu, Fei; Nan, Feng

    2017-03-01

    V ariations in water exchange through the Kerama Gap (between Okinawa Island and Miyakojima Island) from 1979 to 2003 were estimated with the 0.08° Pacific HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM). The model results show that the mean transport through the Kerama Gap (KGT) from the Pacific Ocean to the East China Sea (ECS) was 2.1 Sv, which agrees well with the observed mean KGT (2.0 Sv) for 2009-2010. Over the time period examined, the monthly KGT varied from -10.9 Sv to 15.8 Sv and had a standard deviation of ± 5.0 Sv. The water mainly enters the ECS via the subsurface layer (300-500 m) along the northeastern slope of the Kerama Gap and mainly flows out of the ECS into the southwest of the Kerama Gap. The seasonal and interannual variations of the KGT and the Kuroshio upstream transport were negatively correlated. The Kuroshio upstream transport was largest in summer and smallest in autumn while the KGT was smallest in summer (1.02 Sv) and largest in spring (2.94 Sv) and autumn (2.44 Sv). The seasonal and interannual variations in the Kuroshio downstream (across the PN-line) transport differed significantly from the Kuroshio upstream transport but corresponded well with the KGT and the sum of the transport through the Kerama Gap and the Kuroshio upstream, which indicates that information about variation in the KGT is important for determining variation in the Kuroshio transport along the PN-line.

  8. A "Dressed" Ensemble Kalman Filter Using the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model in the Pacific

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WAN Liying; ZHU Jiang; WANG Hui; YAN Changxiang; Laurent BERTINO

    2009-01-01

    The computational cost required by the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) is much larger than that of some simpler assimilation schemes,such as Optimal Interpolation (OI) or three-dimension variational assimilation (3DVAR).Ensemble optimal interpolation (EnOI),a crudely simplified implementation of EnKF,is sometimes used as a substitute in some oceanic applications and requires much less computational time than EnKF.In this paper,to compromise between computational cost and dynamic covaxiance,we use the idea of "dressing" a small size dynamical ensemble with a larger number of static ensembles in order to form an approximate dynamic covaxiance.The term "dressing" means that a dynamical ensemble seed from model runs is perturbed by adding the anomalies of some static ensembles.This dressing EnKF (DrEnKF for short) scheme is tested in assimilation of real altimetry data in the Pacific using the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) over a four-year period.Ten dynamical ensemble seeds are each dressed by 10 static ensemble members selected from a 100-member static ensemble.Results are compared to two EnKF assimilation runs that use 10 and 100 dynamical ensemble members.Both temperature and salinity fields from the DrEnKF and the EnKF are compared to observations from Argo floats and an OI SST dataset.The results show that the DrEnKF and the 100-member EnKF yield similar root mean square errors (RMSE)at every model level. Error covariance matrices from the DrEnKF and the 100-member EnKF are also compared and show good agreement.

  9. Operational Ocean Modelling with the Harvard Ocean Prediction System

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-11-01

    Ongerubriceerd Copy no 8 No. of copies 30 Number of pages 42 ( exel RDP& dislribulion li: The classification designation Ongerubriceerd is equivalent to... ORGANIZATION REPORT NO TD2008-0174 - TNO-DV 2008 A417 4. PROJECT/TASK/WORK UNIT NO 5. CONTRACT NO 6. REPORT DATE 032.11199 - November 2008 7 NUMBER... ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) TNO Defence, Security and Safety. P.O. Box 96864. 2509 JG The Hague, The Netherlands Oude Waalsdorperweg 63, The Hague

  10. Responses of mesopelagic fish assemblages to environmental disturbance: ocean deoxygenation and oceanic fronts

    OpenAIRE

    Netburn, Amanda Nicole

    2016-01-01

    Throughout the global ocean, there is an abundant and diverse assemblage of fishes aggregated at mesopelagic (200-1000 m) depths. These fishes are critical to pelagic food webs and carbon transport. In the southern California Current Ecosystem, with naturally hypoxic mesopelagic waters, mesopelagic fishes may be vulnerable to predicted ocean deoxygenation. Additionally, water property discontinuities at oceanic fronts can disproportionately affect abundance, compositions, and reproduction o...

  11. Projections of ocean climate for northwestern Pacific Ocean

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CHOI Byung Ho; KIM Dong Hoon; CHOI Young Jin; YUK Jin Hee

    2005-01-01

    The long-term adjustment processes of atmosphere and ocean in response to gradually increased atmospheric CO2 concentration havebeen analyzed in 70 and 140 a integrations with NCAR fully-coupled climate system model (CSM). In these experiments the CO2concentration has been increased to double and quadruples the initial concentration, respectively. After 70 a, at the time of CO2doubling, the model predicts surface air temperature rises by 1.2 and 1.5 K for the globe and the northwestern Pacific Ocean,respectively. The behavior of the quadrupling run is similar: each global and regional mean surface air temperatures increase by 2.8 and 3.0K at the time of CO2 quadrupling. From the experiments, surface air temperature changes in the northwestern Pacific Ocean will be more distinctive compared with the global average, mainly due to exceptionally large warming and sea level change near the entrance of the Kuroshio extension.

  12. Ocean optics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Spinard, R.W.; Carder, K.L.; Perry, M.J.

    1994-12-31

    This volume is the twenty fifth in the series of Oxford Monographs in Geology and Geophysics. The propagation off light in the hydra-atmosphere systems is governed by the integral-differential Radiative Transfer Equation (RTE). Closure and inversion are the most common techniques in optical oceanography to understand the most basic principles of natural variability. Three types of closure are dealt with: scale closure, experimental closure, and instrument closure. The subject is well introduced by Spinard et al. in the Preface while Howard Gordon in Chapter 1 provides an in-depth introduction to the RTE and its inherent problems. Inherent and apparent optical properties are dealt with in Chapter 2 by John Kirk and the realities of optical closure are presented in the following chapter by Ronald Zaneveld. The balance of the papers in this volume is quite varied. The early papers deal in a very mathematical manner with the basics of radiative transfer and the relationship between inherent and optical properties. Polarization of sea water is discussed in a chapter that contains a chronological listing of discoveries in polarization, starting at about 1000 AD with the discovery of dichroic properties of crystals by the Vikings and ending with the demonstration of polarotaxis in certain marine organisms by Waterman in 1972. Chapter 12 on Raman scattering in pure water and the pattern recognition techniques presented in Chapter 13 on the optical effects of large particles may be of relevance to fields outside ocean optics.

  13. Overview of Operational Ocean Forecasting in the U.S. Navy: Past, Present and Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-09-01

    teaching and research. Republication, systematic reproduction, or collective redistribution of any portion of this article by photocopy machine...data, and (2) use multilayer, open ocean boundary circulation and thermodynamic models to predict ocean state in a region where ocean fronts or...Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation (4DVAR) Circulation » Thermodynamic Ocean Prediction System (TOPS) » Navy Layered Ocean Model (NLOM) » Navy Coastal

  14. Intercomparison of Several Ocean Surface Wind Products over the Nordic Seas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dukhovskoy, Dmitry; Bourassa, Mark

    2014-05-01

    CFSR has a much higher spatial (0.25° at the equator, extending to a global 0.5° beyond the tropics) and temporal (1 hour) resolutions. The ASR was produced by the Polar Meteorology Group, Ohio State University as a data source of major atmospheric parameters for the Arctic region. The ASR is based on the polar-optimized version of the WRF model that assimilates historical data along with measurements of the physical components of the Arctic Observing Network developed as part of the International Polar Year. Results from several model experiments driven by different wind forcing are presented. Numerical experiments are conducted with the fully coupled 1/12° resolution HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) and CICE sea ice model. The impact of discrepancies in the wind fields on ocean processes is discussed. Model results demonstrate high sensitivity of the ocean to different wind products especially during strong wind events due to differences in momentum and heat fluxes resulted from the wind data.

  15. Studying ocean acidification in the Arctic Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robbins, Lisa

    2012-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) partnership with the U.S. Coast Guard Ice Breaker Healey and its United Nations Convention Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) cruises has produced new synoptic data from samples collected in the Arctic Ocean and insights into the patterns and extent of ocean acidification. This framework of foundational geochemical information will help inform our understanding of potential risks to Arctic resources due to ocean acidification.

  16. Global Ocean Storage of Anthropogenic Carbon (GOSAC)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Orr, J C

    2002-04-02

    GOSAC was an EC-funded project (1998-2001) focused on improving the predictive capacity and accelerating development of global-scale, three-dimensional, ocean carbon-cycle models by means of standardized model evaluation and model intercomparison. Through the EC Environment and Climate Programme, GOSAC supported the participation of seven European modeling groups in the second phase of the larger international effort OCMIP (the Ocean Carbon-Cycle Model Intercomparison Project). OCMIP included model comparison and validation for both CO{sub 2} and other ocean circulation and biogeochemical tracers. Beyond the international OCMIP effort, GOSAC also supported the same EC ocean carbon cycle modeling groups to make simulations to evaluate the efficiency of purposeful sequestration of CO{sub 2} in the ocean. Such sequestration, below the thermocline has been proposed as a strategy to help mitigate the increase of CO{sub 2} in the atmosphere. Some technical and scientific highlights of GOSAC are given.

  17. Six centuries of changing oceanic mercury

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yanxu; Jaeglé, Lyatt; Thompson, LuAnne; Streets, David G.

    2014-11-01

    Mercury (Hg) is a global and persistent contaminant, affecting human health primarily via marine fish consumption. Large anthropogenic releases of Hg to the atmosphere by mining and coal combustion have resulted in a significant perturbation to the biogeochemical cycling of Hg. The magnitude of this perturbation and the relative roles of the ocean and land as sinks for anthropogenic Hg remain unclear. Here we use a 3-D global ocean biogeochemical model to show that surface ocean Hg concentrations have increased fourfold over the last 600 years. We find that anthropogenic Hg enters the ocean's interior predominantly by absorption onto sinking organic matter particulates, which decompose and release Hg at a depth of 500-800 m, implying that the human perturbation is largest in subsurface waters of biologically productive regions. Our model simulation predicts that over the last six centuries half of emitted anthropogenic Hg has accumulated in the oceans and marine sediments.

  18. Simulating Conditional Deterministic Predictability within Ocean Frontogenesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-03-26

    in small patches as would be expected from coincidental correlation. The areas of maximal correlation are the area south of the Kuroshio and west of...dx.doi.org/10.1029/2004JC002712. Pallàs-Sanz, E., Johnston , T.M.S., Rudnick, D.L., 2010. Frontal dynamics in a California current system shallow front: 1

  19. Eddy-Resolving Global Ocean Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-07-01

    Cummings, Ahmet Birol Kara, E. Joseph Metzger, Jay Shriver, Ole Martin Smedstad, Alan J. Wallcraft, Charlie N. Barron 5d. PROJECT NUMBER 5e...8217, Alan J. Wallcraft’. and Charlie N. Barron’ ’Naval Research Laboratory: Oceanography Division. Stennis Space Center. Mississippi. I SA 1Centerfor...Distribution and move- ment of Gulf Stream rings. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 7(5), 670 683. Large. W. G.. G. Danabasoglu. S. C. Doney. and J. C. McWilliams

  20. Stochastic Forcing for Ocean Uncertainty Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-30

    shallow water waves governed by Korteweg-de Vries ( KdV ) dynamics with stochastic forcing. Uncertain Boundary Conditions and DO Equations: A...schemes to time-integrate shallow water surface waves governed by KdV equations with external stochastic forcing. We find that the DO scheme is

  1. Statistical Prediction of Ocean Circulation and Trajectories

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-06-07

    direction of the arrows. Entropy gradients calculated in this manner vanish when entropy attains its highest realizable value, indicated by the tick mark in...guide development of equations for the pdf moments, simulations of quasigeostrophic flow ensembles are being conducted. In these calculations , we...quasigeostrophic flows, which presume infinitesimal topography. This has rendered speculative the application of entropy-gradient concepts to large

  2. A Rapidly Relocatable Ocean Prediction System

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-05-01

    bias 0423 da12-rl,046 bias=1 4C 1.50 0.402.4 Om ii 6.00 27.,1110 6.0 &0 I6.0 M2.0 14.0 1.0 18.0 201, 6.0 S.o 6 e M0. 14.0 c. 0 1..0 20.6 6 .0 10. 4 1...Laboratory. 42 pp. Peggion G., 2005: La matematica in difesa dell’ambiente. Mateatiica e cultura 2004. M. Emmer Ed. Vol VIII. Springer-Verlag. 89- 97

  3. An overview of Arctic Ocean acoustics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hutt, Dan

    2012-11-01

    This paper presents a review of the underwater acoustics of the Arctic Ocean. It discusses the main features of the underwater acoustic environment and how they are so strongly affected by the presence of ice cover. The paper also discusses the history of Arctic Ocean acoustics research, how the motivation was originally military in character during the Cold War and how it changed to being driven by environmental considerations today. Originally, the physics of the Arctic Ocean was studied in order to predict its acoustic properties, and now acoustic techniques are used to help understand its physical environment.

  4. Ecological niches of open ocean phytoplankton taxa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brun, Philipp Georg; Vogt, Meike; Payne, Mark;

    2015-01-01

    We characterize the realized ecological niches of 133 phytoplankton taxa in the open ocean based on observations from the MAREDAT initiative and a statistical species distribution model (MaxEnt). The models find that the physical conditions (mixed layer depth, temperature, light) govern large...... conditions in the open ocean. Our estimates of the realized niches roughly match the predictions of Reynolds' C-S-R model for the global ocean, namely that taxa classified as nutrient stress tolerant have niches at lower nutrient and higher irradiance conditions than light stress tolerant taxa. Yet...

  5. The Ocean Literacy Campaign

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schoedinger, S. E.; Strang, C.

    2008-12-01

    "Ocean Literacy is an understanding of the ocean's influence on you and your influence on the ocean." This simple statement captures the spirit of a conceptual framework supporting ocean literacy (COSEE et al., 2005). The framework comprises 7 essential principles and 44 fundamental concepts an ocean literate person would know (COSEE et al., 2005). The framework is the result of an extensive grassroots effort to reach consensus on (1) a definition for ocean literacy and (2) an articulation of the most important concepts to be understood by ocean-literate citizen (Cava et al., 2005). In the process of reaching consensus on these "big ideas" about the ocean, what began as a series of workshops has emerged as a campaign "owned" by an ever-expanding community of individuals, organizations and networks involved in developing and promoting the framework. The Ocean Literacy Framework has provided a common language for scientists and educators working together and serves as key guidance for the ocean science education efforts. This presentation will focus on the impact this Ocean Literacy Campaign has had to date as well as efforts underway to provide additional tools to enable educators and educational policy makers to further integrate teaching and learning about the ocean and our coasts into formal K-12 education and informal education. COSEE, National Geographic Society, NOAA, College of Exploration (2005). Ocean Literacy: The Essential Principles of Ocean Sciences Grades K-12, a jointly published brochure, URL: http://www.coexploration.org/oceanliteracy/documents/OceanLitChart.pdf Cava, F., S. Schoedinger , C. Strang, and P. Tuddenham (2005). Science Content and Standards for Ocean Literacy: A Report on Ocean Literacy, URL: http://www.coexploration.org/oceanliteracy/documents/OLit2004-05_Final_Report.pdf.

  6. Ocean acidification in the Western Arctic Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, W.; Chen, B.; Chen, L.

    2011-12-01

    We report carbonate chemistry and ocean acidification status in the western Arctic Ocean from 65-88οN based on data collected in summer 2008 and 2010. In the marginal seas, surface waters have high pH and high carbonate saturation state (Ω) due to intensive biological uptake of CO2. In the southern Canada Basin, surface waters have low pH and low Ω due to the uptake of atmospheric CO2 and sea-ice melt. In the northern Arctic Ocean basin, there is no serious ocean acidification in surface water due to heavy ice-coverage but pH and Ω in the subsurface waters at the oxygen minimum and nutrient maximum zone (at 100-150 m) are low due mostly to respiration-derived CO2 and an increased biological production and export in surface waters. Such multitude responses of ocean carbonate chemistry (northern vs. southern basin, basins vs. margins, and surface vs. subsurface) to climate changes are unique to the Arctic Ocean system. We will explore biogeochemical control mechanisms on carbonate chemistry and ocean acidification in the Arctic Ocean environments in the context of recent warming and sea-ice retreat.

  7. Application of a hybrid EnKF-OI to ocean forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Counillon

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Data assimilation methods often use an ensemble to represent the background error covariance. Two approaches are commonly used; a simple one with a static ensemble, or a more advanced one with a dynamic ensemble. The latter is often non-practical due to its high computational requirements. Some recent studies suggested using a hybrid covariance, which is a linear combination of the covariances represented by a static and a dynamic ensemble. Here, the use of the hybrid covariance is first extensively tested with a quasi-geostrophic model and with different analysis schemes, namely the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF and the Ensemble Square Root Filter (ESRF. The hybrid covariance ESRF (ESRF-OI is more accurate and more stable than the hybrid covariance EnKF (EnKF-OI, but the overall conclusions are similar regardless of the analysis scheme used. The benefits of using the hybrid covariance are large compared to both the static and the dynamic methods with a small dynamic ensemble. The benefits over the dynamic methods become negligible, but remain, for large dynamic ensembles. The optimal value of the hybrid blending coefficient appears to decrease exponentially with the size of the dynamic ensemble. Finally, we consider a realistic application with the assimilation of altimetry data in a hybrid coordinate ocean model (HYCOM for the Gulf of Mexico, during the shedding of Eddy Yankee (2006. A 10-member EnKF-OI is compared to a 10-member EnKF and a static method called the Ensemble Optimal Interpolation (EnOI. While 10 members seem insufficient for running the EnKF, the 10-member EnKF-OI reduces the forecast error compared to the EnOI, and improves the positions of the fronts.

  8. Ocean Acidification Product Suite

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Scientists within the ACCRETE (Acidification, Climate, and Coral Reef Ecosystems Team) Lab of AOML_s Ocean Chemistry and Ecosystems Division (OCED) have constructed...

  9. Ocean Robotic Networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schofield, Oscar [Rutgers University

    2012-05-23

    We live on an ocean planet which is central to regulating the Earth’s climate and human society. Despite the importance of understanding the processes operating in the ocean, it remains chronically undersampled due to the harsh operating conditions. This is problematic given the limited long term information available about how the ocean is changing. The changes include rising sea level, declining sea ice, ocean acidification, and the decline of mega fauna. While the changes are daunting, oceanography is in the midst of a technical revolution with the expansion of numerical modeling techniques, combined with ocean robotics. Operating together, these systems represent a new generation of ocean observatories. I will review the evolution of these ocean observatories and provide a few case examples of the science that they enable, spanning from the waters offshore New Jersey to the remote waters of the Southern Ocean.

  10. Ocean Sediment Thickness Contours

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Ocean sediment thickness contours in 200 meter intervals for water depths ranging from 0 - 18,000 meters. These contours were derived from a global sediment...

  11. Ocean Disposal Sites

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — In 1972, Congress enacted the Marine Protection, Research, and Sanctuaries Act (MPRSA, also known as the Ocean Dumping Act) to prohibit the dumping of material into...

  12. Indian Ocean margins

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Naqvi, S.W.A.

    The most important biogeochemical transformations and boundary exchanges in the Indian Ocean seem to occur in the northern region, where the processes originating at the land-ocean boundary extend far beyond the continental margins. Exchanges across...

  13. Ocean Uses: California

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This Ocean Uses Atlas Project is an innovative partnership between NOAA's National Marine Protected Areas Center and Marine Conservation Biology Institute. The...

  14. Ocean Disposal Site Monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA is responsible for managing all designated ocean disposal sites. Surveys are conducted to identify appropriate locations for ocean disposal sites and to monitor the impacts of regulated dumping at the disposal sites.

  15. California Ocean Uses Atlas

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset is a result of the California Ocean Uses Atlas Project: a collaboration between NOAA's National Marine Protected Areas Center and Marine Conservation...

  16. ESPC Coupled Global Prediction System

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-30

    interactions between these processes. Both short term (10 day) and long term (30 day) tests will be conducted for this work. We will perform tests on...tripole grid version of WW3 has been run on the DSRC with binary file input from HYCOM that includes water levels, 10-m wind speed , surface currents and...The currents impact the wave model through 1) shifting energy in frequency space, 2) changing effective wind speed , and 3) refracting wave energy

  17. Deep Water Ocean Acoustics

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-04-30

    OASIS, INC. 1 Report No. QSR-14C0172-Ocean Acoustics-043016 Quarterly Progress Report Technical and Financial Deep Water Ocean Acoustics...understanding of the impact of the ocean and seafloor environmental variability on deep- water (long-range) ocean acoustic propagation and to...improve our understanding. During the past few years, the physics effects studied have been three-dimensional propagation on global scales, deep water

  18. Characterization of the northern Red Sea's oceanic features with remote sensing data and outputs from a global circulation model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmed Eladawy

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Sea surface temperature (SST and surface wind (SW are considered the most important components in air–sea interactions. This study examines the relationships between SST, SW and various oceanic variables in the northern Red Sea (NRS during the period of 2000–2014. The current study is the first attempt to identify the SST fronts and their relationship with the dominant circulation patterns. SST fronts are mapped using the Cayula and Cornillon algorithms. The analysis is performed with available remote sensing and reanalyzed data together with 1/12° HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM outputs. Seasonal-trend decomposition procedure based on loess (STL is applied for trend analysis, and Principal Component Analysis (PCA is run for the atmospheric parameters. The SST, SW speed and Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a changes show insignificant trends during the period of 2000–2014. Meridional SST fronts are more significant during the month of January, and fronts that are perpendicular to the sea's axis occur from February to May. Distinct monthly and spatial variations are present in all the examined parameters, although these variations are less pronounced for the wind direction. The SST is mainly controlled by the air temperature and sea level pressure. Significant correlations exist between the SST and the studied parameters (alongshore wind stress rather than the cross-shore wind stress, surface circulation, MLD, and Chl-a. Surface winds generally flow southeastward parallel to the Red Sea's axis explaining that alongshore wind stress is highly correlated with the studied parameters.

  19. Ocean, Spreading Centre

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Krishna, K.S.

    the lithospheric plates on either side in order to accommodate newly accreted crust. Many of the oceanic ridges in the world oceans have been abandoned in the geologic past and led to resume the activity elsewhere either in the intra-oceanic or intracontinental...

  20. Activity Book: Ocean Ecology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Learning, 1992

    1992-01-01

    Presents a collection of activities to help elementary students study ocean ecology. The activities have students investigate ocean inhabitants, analyze animal adaptations, examine how temperature and saltiness affect ocean creatures, and learn about safeguarding the sea. Student pages offer reproducible learning sheets. (SM)

  1. NOAA's Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Realtime El Nino and La Nina data from the tropical Pacific Ocean is provided by the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean / Triangle Trans-Ocean buoy network (TAO/TRITON) of...

  2. An assessment of the Brazil Current baroclinic structure and variability near 22° S in Distinct Ocean Forecasting and Analysis Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lima, Mateus O.; Cirano, Mauro; Mata, Mauricio M.; Goes, Marlos; Goni, Gustavo; Baringer, Molly

    2016-07-01

    The Brazil Current (BC) is the Western Boundary Current of the South Atlantic subtropical gyre, the dominant dynamic feature in the South Atlantic Ocean. The importance of this current lies in that it is the main conduit of subtropical waters to higher latitudes in the South Atlantic Ocean. This study assesses the structure and variability of the BC across the nominal latitude of 22° S using data from the high-density eXpendable BathyThermograph (XBT) AX97 transect and from three numerical ocean models with data assimilation. This XBT transect was implemented in 2004 and represents one of the longer-term monitoring systems of the BC in existence. The goal of this work is to enhance the understanding of the temporal and spatial variability of the ocean dynamics in the southwestern South Atlantic Ocean by using a suite of hydrographic observations and numerical model outputs. In the present work, 37 XBT transect realizations using data collected between 2004 and 2012 are used. Daily outputs covering the same time period are evaluated from Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model with the Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (HYCOM-NCODA) with a 1/12° horizontal resolution, and GLORYS2V3 and FOAM, both with a 1/4° horizontal resolution. These Ocean Forecasting and Analysis Systems (OFAS) are able to capture the mean observed features in the 22° S region, showing a BC core confined to the west of 39° W and an Intermediate Western Boundary Current between the depths of 200 and 800 m. However, the OFAS tend to overestimate the mean BC baroclinic volume transport across the AX97 reference transect and underestimate its variability. The OFAS show that the coastal region between the coastline and the western edge of the AX97 transect plays an important role in the mean BC total transport, contributing to up to 23 % of its value, and further that this transport is not sampled by the XBT observations with its current sampling strategy. In order to understand the variability of the

  3. Computational Ocean Acoustics

    CERN Document Server

    Jensen, Finn B; Porter, Michael B; Schmidt, Henrik

    2011-01-01

    Since the mid-1970s, the computer has played an increasingly pivotal role in the field of ocean acoustics. Faster and less expensive than actual ocean experiments, and capable of accommodating the full complexity of the acoustic problem, numerical models are now standard research tools in ocean laboratories. The progress made in computational ocean acoustics over the last thirty years is summed up in this authoritative and innovatively illustrated new text. Written by some of the field's pioneers, all Fellows of the Acoustical Society of America, Computational Ocean Acoustics presents the latest numerical techniques for solving the wave equation in heterogeneous fluid–solid media. The authors discuss various computational schemes in detail, emphasizing the importance of theoretical foundations that lead directly to numerical implementations for real ocean environments. To further clarify the presentation, the fundamental propagation features of the techniques are illustrated in color. Computational Ocean A...

  4. Swell Propagation over Indian Ocean Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suchandra A. Bhowmick

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Swells are the ocean surface gravity waves that have propagated out of their generating fetch to the distant coasts without significant attenuation. Therefore they contain a clear signature of the nature and intensity of wind at the generation location. This makes them a precursor to various atmospheric phenomena like distant storms, tropical cyclones, or even large scale sea breeze like monsoon. Since they are not affected by wind once they propagate out of their generating region, they cannot be described by regional wave models forced by local winds. However, their prediction is important, in particular, for ship routing and off shore structure designing. In the present work, the propagation of swell waves from the Southern Ocean and southern Indian Ocean to the central and northern Indian Ocean has been studied. For this purpose a spectral ocean Wave Model (WAM has been used to simulate significant wave height for 13 years from 1993–2005 using NCEP blended winds at a horizontal spatial resolution of 1° × 1°. It has been observed that Indian Ocean, with average wave height of approximately 2–3 m during July, is mostly dominated by swell waves generated predominantly under the extreme windy conditions prevailing over the Southern Ocean and southern Indian Ocean. In fact the swell waves reaching the Indian Ocean in early or mid May carry unique signatures of monsoon arriving over the Indian Subcontinent. Pre-monsoon month of April contains low swell waves ranging from 0.5–1 m. The amplitudes subsequently increase to approximately 1.5–2 meters around 7–15 days prior to the arrival of monsoon over the Indian Subcontinent. This embedded signature may be utilized as one of the important oceanographic precursor to the monsoon onset over the Indian Ocean.

  5. How ocean acidification can benefit calcifiers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Connell, Sean D; Doubleday, Zoë A; Hamlyn, Sarah B; Foster, Nicole R; Harley, Christopher D G; Helmuth, Brian; Kelaher, Brendan P; Nagelkerken, Ivan; Sarà, Gianluca; Russell, Bayden D

    2017-02-06

    Reduction in seawater pH due to rising levels of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) in the world's oceans is a major force set to shape the future of marine ecosystems and the ecological services they provide [1,2]. In particular, ocean acidification is predicted to have a detrimental effect on the physiology of calcifying organisms [3]. Yet, the indirect effects of ocean acidification on calcifying organisms, which may counter or exacerbate direct effects, is uncertain. Using volcanic CO2 vents, we tested the indirect effects of ocean acidification on a calcifying herbivore (gastropod) within the natural complexity of an ecological system. Contrary to predictions, the abundance of this calcifier was greater at vent sites (with near-future CO2 levels). Furthermore, translocation experiments demonstrated that ocean acidification did not drive increases in gastropod abundance directly, but indirectly as a function of increased habitat and food (algal biomass). We conclude that the effect of ocean acidification on algae (primary producers) can have a strong, indirect positive influence on the abundance of some calcifying herbivores, which can overwhelm any direct negative effects. This finding points to the need to understand ecological processes that buffer the negative effects of environmental change. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Ocean feedback to pulses of the Madden–Julian Oscillation in the equatorial Indian Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moum, James N.; Pujiana, Kandaga; Lien, Ren-Chieh; Smyth, William D.

    2016-01-01

    Dynamical understanding of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) has been elusive, and predictive capabilities therefore limited. New measurements of the ocean's response to the intense surface winds and cooling by two successive MJO pulses, separated by several weeks, show persistent ocean currents and subsurface mixing after pulse passage, thereby reducing ocean heat energy available for later pulses by an amount significantly greater than via atmospheric surface cooling alone. This suggests that thermal mixing in the upper ocean from a particular pulse might affect the amplitude of the following pulse. Here we test this hypothesis by comparing 18 pulse pairs, each separated by <55 days, measured over a 33-year period. We find a significant tendency for weak (strong) pulses, associated with low (high) cooling rates, to be followed by stronger (weaker) pulses. We therefore propose that the ocean introduces a memory effect into the MJO, whereby each event is governed in part by the previous event. PMID:27759016

  7. The pH of Enceladus' ocean

    CERN Document Server

    Glein, Christopher; Waite, Hunter

    2015-01-01

    Observational data from the Cassini spacecraft are used to obtain a chemical model of ocean water on Enceladus. The model indicates that Enceladus' ocean is a Na-Cl-CO3 solution with an alkaline pH of ~11-12. The dominance of aqueous NaCl is a feature that Enceladus' ocean shares with terrestrial seawater, but the ubiquity of dissolved Na2CO3 suggests that soda lakes are more analogous to the Enceladus ocean. The high pH implies that the hydroxide ion should be relatively abundant, while divalent metals should be present at low concentrations owing to buffering by clays and carbonates on the ocean floor. The high pH is interpreted to be a key consequence of serpentinization of chondritic rock, as predicted by prior geochemical reaction path models; although degassing of CO2 from the ocean may also play a role depending on the efficiency of mixing processes in the ocean. Serpentinization leads to the generation of H2, a geochemical fuel that can support both abiotic and biological synthesis of organic molecule...

  8. Numerical simulation of the world ocean circulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takano, K.; Mintz, Y.; Han, Y. J.

    1973-01-01

    A multi-level model, based on the primitive equations, is developed for simulating the temperature and velocity fields produced in the world ocean by differential heating and surface wind stress. The model ocean has constant depth, free slip at the lower boundary, and neglects momentum advection; so that there is no energy exchange between the barotropic and baroclinic components of the motion, although the former influences the latter through temperature advection. The ocean model was designed to be coupled to the UCLA atmospheric general circulation model, for the study of the dynamics of climate and climate changes. But here, the model is tested by prescribing the observed seasonally varying surface wind stress and the incident solar radiation, the surface air temperature and humidity, cloudiness and the surface wind speed, which, together with the predicted ocean surface temperature, determine the surface flux of radiant energy, sensible heat and latent heat.

  9. Climate Modeling: Ocean Cavities below Ice Shelves

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Petersen, Mark Roger [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Computer, Computational, and Statistical Sciences Division

    2016-09-12

    The Accelerated Climate Model for Energy (ACME), a new initiative by the U.S. Department of Energy, includes unstructured-mesh ocean, land-ice, and sea-ice components using the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) framework. The ability to run coupled high-resolution global simulations efficiently on large, high-performance computers is a priority for ACME. Sub-ice shelf ocean cavities are a significant new capability in ACME, and will be used to better understand how changing ocean temperature and currents influence glacial melting and retreat. These simulations take advantage of the horizontal variable-resolution mesh and adaptive vertical coordinate in MPAS-Ocean, in order to place high resolution below ice shelves and near grounding lines.

  10. Investigating Undergraduate Science Students' Conceptions and Misconceptions of Ocean Acidification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danielson, Kathryn I.; Tanner, Kimberly D.

    2015-01-01

    Scientific research exploring ocean acidification has grown significantly in past decades. However, little science education research has investigated the extent to which undergraduate science students understand this topic. Of all undergraduate students, one might predict science students to be best able to understand ocean acidification. What…

  11. Investigating Undergraduate Science Students' Conceptions and Misconceptions of Ocean Acidification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danielson, Kathryn I.; Tanner, Kimberly D.

    2015-01-01

    Scientific research exploring ocean acidification has grown significantly in past decades. However, little science education research has investigated the extent to which undergraduate science students understand this topic. Of all undergraduate students, one might predict science students to be best able to understand ocean acidification. What…

  12. Performance of Mixed Layer Models in Simulating SST in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-02-23

    of mooring buoy SSTs. variety of temporal and spatial scales in the equatorial The evaluation of the MLSs is based on the accuracy of the Pacific [e.g...forcing introduced earlier. For that purpose, monthly clima - etc.) to determine the statistical equilibrium in each model tological mean HYCOM SSTs were

  13. Blue ocean strategy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, W Chan; Mauborgne, Renée

    2004-10-01

    Despite a long-term decline in the circus industry, Cirque du Soleil profitably increased revenue 22-fold over the last ten years by reinventing the circus. Rather than competing within the confines of the existing industry or trying to steal customers from rivals, Cirque developed uncontested market space that made the competition irrelevant. Cirque created what the authors call a blue ocean, a previously unknown market space. In blue oceans, demand is created rather than fought over. There is ample opportunity for growth that is both profitable and rapid. In red oceans--that is, in all the industries already existing--companies compete by grabbing for a greater share of limited demand. As the market space gets more crowded, prospects for profits and growth decline. Products turn into commodities, and increasing competition turns the water bloody. There are two ways to create blue oceans. One is to launch completely new industries, as eBay did with online auctions. But it's much more common for a blue ocean to be created from within a red ocean when a company expands the boundaries of an existing industry. In studying more than 150 blue ocean creations in over 30 industries, the authors observed that the traditional units of strategic analysis--company and industry--are of limited use in explaining how and why blue oceans are created. The most appropriate unit of analysis is the strategic move, the set of managerial actions and decisions involved in making a major market-creating business offering. Creating blue oceans builds brands. So powerful is blue ocean strategy, in fact, that a blue ocean strategic move can create brand equity that lasts for decades.

  14. Ocean worlds exploration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lunine, Jonathan I.

    2017-02-01

    Ocean worlds is the label given to objects in the solar system that host stable, globe-girdling bodies of liquid water-"oceans". Of these, the Earth is the only one to support its oceans on the surface, making it a model for habitable planets around other stars but not for habitable worlds elsewhere in the solar system. Elsewhere in the solar system, three objects-Jupiter's moon Europa, and Saturn's moons Enceladus and Titan-have subsurface oceans whose existence has been detected or inferred by two independent spacecraft techniques. A host of other bodies in the outer solar system are inferred by a single type of observation or by theoretical modeling to have subsurface oceans. This paper focusses on the three best-documented water oceans beyond Earth: those within Europa, Titan and Enceladus. Of these, Europa's is closest to the surface (less than 10 km and possibly less than 1 km in places), and hence potentially best suited for eventual direct exploration. Enceladus' ocean is deeper-5-40 km below its surface-but fractures beneath the south pole of this moon allow ice and gas from the ocean to escape to space where it has been sampled by mass spectrometers aboard the Cassini Saturn Orbiter. Titan's ocean is the deepest-perhaps 50-100 km-and no evidence for plumes or ice volcanism exist on the surface. In terms of the search for evidence of life within these oceans, the plume of ice and gas emanating from Enceladus makes this the moon of choice for a fast-track program to search for life. If plumes exist on Europa-yet to be confirmed-or places can be located where ocean water is extruded onto the surface, then the search for life on this lunar-sized body can also be accomplished quickly by the standards of outer solar system exploration.

  15. Indian Ocean Rim Cooperation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wippel, Steffen

    Since the mid-1990s, the Indian Ocean has been experiencing increasing economic cooperation among its rim states. Middle Eastern countries, too, participate in the work of the Indian Ocean Rim Association, which received new impetus in the course of the current decade. Notably Oman is a very active...

  16. Communicating Ocean Acidification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pope, Aaron; Selna, Elizabeth

    2013-01-01

    Participation in a study circle through the National Network of Ocean and Climate Change Interpretation (NNOCCI) project enabled staff at the California Academy of Sciences to effectively engage visitors on climate change and ocean acidification topics. Strategic framing tactics were used as staff revised the scripted Coral Reef Dive program,…

  17. Global Ocean Phytoplankton

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franz, B. A.; Behrenfeld, M. J.; Siegel, D. A.; Werdell, P. J.

    2014-01-01

    Marine phytoplankton are responsible for roughly half the net primary production (NPP) on Earth, fixing atmospheric CO2 into food that fuels global ocean ecosystems and drives the ocean's biogeochemical cycles. Phytoplankton growth is highly sensitive to variations in ocean physical properties, such as upper ocean stratification and light availability within this mixed layer. Satellite ocean color sensors, such as the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS; McClain 2009) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS; Esaias 1998), provide observations of sufficient frequency and geographic coverage to globally monitor physically-driven changes in phytoplankton distributions. In practice, ocean color sensors retrieve the spectral distribution of visible solar radiation reflected upward from beneath the ocean surface, which can then be related to changes in the photosynthetic phytoplankton pigment, chlorophyll- a (Chla; measured in mg m-3). Here, global Chla data for 2013 are evaluated within the context of the 16-year continuous record provided through the combined observations of SeaWiFS (1997-2010) and MODIS on Aqua (MODISA; 2002-present). Ocean color measurements from the recently launched Visible and Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS; 2011-present) are also considered, but results suggest that the temporal calibration of the VIIRS sensor is not yet sufficiently stable for quantitative global change studies. All MODISA (version 2013.1), SeaWiFS (version 2010.0), and VIIRS (version 2013.1) data presented here were produced by NASA using consistent Chla algorithms.

  18. Blue Ocean Thinking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orem, Donna

    2016-01-01

    This article describes a concept called the "blue ocean thinking strategy," developed by W. Chan Kim and Renée Mauborgne, professors at INSEAD, an international graduate school of business in France. The "blue ocean" thinking strategy considers opportunities to create new markets for services, rather than focusing solely on…

  19. Indian Ocean Rim Cooperation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wippel, Steffen

    Since the mid-1990s, the Indian Ocean has been experiencing increasing economic cooperation among its rim states. Middle Eastern countries, too, participate in the work of the Indian Ocean Rim Association, which received new impetus in the course of the current decade. Notably Oman is a very active...

  20. Introduction to ocean optics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordon, H. R.; Smith, R. C.; Zaneveld, J. R. V.

    1984-01-01

    In this introductory survey of optical oceanography, the fundamental inherent and apparent optical properties of natural waters are presented. Relationships between these inherent and apparent optical properties, as related through the radiative transfer equation, are then examined. Following the first three theoretical sections, brief discussions describing the application of ocean optics to geophysics, biological oceanography, and ocean remote sensing are then presented.

  1. Communicating Ocean Acidification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pope, Aaron; Selna, Elizabeth

    2013-01-01

    Participation in a study circle through the National Network of Ocean and Climate Change Interpretation (NNOCCI) project enabled staff at the California Academy of Sciences to effectively engage visitors on climate change and ocean acidification topics. Strategic framing tactics were used as staff revised the scripted Coral Reef Dive program,…

  2. Ocean acidification postcards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schreppel, Heather A.; Cimitile, Matthew J.

    2011-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is conducting research on ocean acidification in polar, temperate, subtropical, and tropical regions including the Arctic, West Florida Shelf, and the Caribbean. Project activities include field assessment, experimental laboratory studies, and evaluation of existing data. The USGS is participating in international and interagency working groups to develop research strategies to increase understanding of the global implications of ocean acidification. Research strategies include new approaches for seawater chemistry observation and modeling, assessment of physiological effects on organisms, changes in marine ecosystem structure, new technologies, and information resources. These postcards highlight ongoing USGS research efforts in ocean acidification and carbon cycling in marine and coastal ecosystems in three different regions: polar, temperate, and tropical. To learn more about ocean acidification visit: http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/ocean-acidification/.

  3. The great challenges in Arctic Ocean paleoceanography

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stein, Ruediger, E-mail: Ruediger.Stein@awi.de [Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, 27568 Bremerhaven (Germany)

    2011-05-15

    Despite the importance of the Arctic in the climate system, the data base we have from this area is still very weak, and large parts of the climate history have not been recovered at all in sedimentary sections. In order to fill this gap in knowledge, international, multidisciplinary expeditions and projects for scientific drilling/coring in the Arctic Ocean are needed. Key areas and approaches for drilling and recovering undisturbed and complete sedimentary sequences are depth transects across the major ocean ridge systems, i.e., the Lomonosov Ridge, the Alpha-Mendeleev Ridge, and the Chukchi Plateau/Northwind Ridge, the Beaufort, Kara and Laptev sea continental margins, as well as the major Arctic gateways towards the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. The new detailed climate records from the Arctic Ocean spanning time intervals from the Late Cretaceous/Paleogene Greenhouse world to the Neogene-Quaternary Icehouse world and representing short- and long-term climate variability on scales from 10 to 10{sup 6} years, will give new insights into our understanding of the Arctic Ocean within the global climate system and provide an opportunity to test the performance of climate models used to predict future climate change. With this, studying the Arctic Ocean is certainly one of the major challenges in climate research for the coming decades.

  4. Ocean water cycle: its recent amplification and impact on ocean circulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vinogradova, Nadya

    2016-04-01

    Oceans are the largest reservoir of the world's water supply, accounting for 97% of the Earth's water and supplying more than 75% of the evaporated and precipitated water in the global water cycle. Therefore, in order to predict the future of the global hydrological cycle, it is essential to understand the changes in its largest component, which is the flux of freshwater over the oceans. Here we examine the change in the ocean water cycle and the ocean's response to such changes that were happening during the last two decades. The analysis is based on a data-constrained ocean state estimate that synthesizes all of the information available in the surface fluxes, winds, observations of sea level, temperature, salinity, geoid, etc., as well as in the physical constraints, dynamics, and conservation statements that are embedded in the equations of the MIT general circulation model. Closeness to observations and dynamical consistency of the solution ensures a physically realistic correspondence between the atmospheric forcing and oceanic fluxes, including the ocean's response to freshwater input. The results show a robust pattern of change in the ocean water cycle in the last twenty years. The pattern of changes indicates a general tendency of drying of the subtropics, and wetting in the tropics and mid-to-high latitudes, following the "rich get richer and the poor get poorer" paradigm in many ocean regions. Using a closed property budget analysis, we then investigate the changes in the oceanic state (salinity, temperature, sea level) during the same twenty-year period. The results are discussed in terms of the origin of surface signatures, and differentiated between those that are attributed to short-term natural variability and those that result from an intensified hydrological cycle due to warming climate.

  5. OW CCMP ocean surface wind

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Cross-Calibrated Multi-Platform (CCMP) Ocean Surface Wind Vector Analyses (Atlas et al., 2011) provide a consistent, gap-free long-term time-series of ocean...

  6. The Navy’s Application of Ocean Forecasting to Decision Support

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-09-01

    A FULLY COUPLED MODELING ENVIRONMENT, WHERE EXCHANGES BETWEEN THE OCEAN, ATMOSPHERE, ICE, LAND, HYDROSPHERE, BIOSPHERE , AND SPACE OCCUR IN REAL...successful step toward a fully coupled modeling environment, where exchanges between the ocean, atmo- sphere, ice, land, hydrosphere, biosphere , and...Naval Oceanographic Office (NAVOCEANO) provides daily operational global, regional, and coastal ocean model forecasts and their associated prediction

  7. Magnetic Fields Induced in the Solid Earth and Oceans

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kuvshinov, Alexei; Olsen, Nils

    Electromagnetic induction in the Earth's interior is an important contributor to the near-Earth magnetic field. Oceans play a special role in the induction, due to their relatively high conductance of large lateral variability. Electric currents that generate secondary magnetic fields are induced...... in the oceans by two different sources: by time varying external magnetic fields, and by motion of the conducting ocean water through the Earth's main magnetic field. Significant progress in the accurate and detailed prediction of magnetic fields induced by these sources has been achieved during the last years......, utilizing realistic 3-D conductivity models of the oceans, crust and mantle. In addition to these improvements in the prediction of 3-D induction effects, much attention has been paid to identifying magnetic signals of oceanic origin in observatory and satellite data. During the talk we will present...

  8. Ocean tidal signals in observatory and satellite magnetic measurements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Maus, S.; Kuvshinov, A.

    2004-01-01

    Ocean flow moves sea water through the Earth's magnetic field, inducing electric fields, currents and secondary magnetic fields. These motionally induced magnetic fields have a potential for the remote sensing of ocean flow variability. A first goal must be to gain a better understanding...... of magnetic field generation by tidal ocean flow. We predict the motionally induced magnetic fields for the six major tidal constituents and compare their amplitudes with the spectra of night time observatory and satellite magnetic measurements for the Indian Ocean. The magnetic variations at the solar S2, K1......, and P1 periods turn out to be dominated by unrelated external fields. In contrast, observed lunar M2 and N2 tidal signals are in fair agreement with predictions from motional induction. The lunar diurnal O1 signal, visible at some observatories, could be caused by ocean flow but disagrees in amplitude...

  9. An Ocean-Based Potential Intensity Index for Tropical Cyclones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, I. I.; Black, P. G.; Price, J. F.; Yang, C.; Chen, S. S.; Chi, N.; Harr, P.; Lien, C.; D'Asaro, E. A.; Wu, C.

    2012-12-01

    Improvement in tropical cyclones' intensity prediction is an important ongoing effort. Cooling of the ocean by storm mixing reduces storm intensity by reducing the air-sea enthalpy flux. Here, we modify the widely used Sea Surface Temperature Potential Intensity (SST_PI) index by including information from the upper subsurface ocean to form a new Ocean Cooling Potential Intensity index, OC_PI. Applied to a 14-year (1998-2011) Western Pacific typhoon archive, the correlation coefficient between the predicted maximum intensity and the observed peak intensity increased from 0.08 to 0.31. For the sub group of slow-moving TCs that has the strongest interaction with subsurface ocean, r2 increases to 0.56. OC_PI thus contributes to the improvement on the existing PI through incorporation of ocean's subsurface information.

  10. The Mercator-Ocean Forecasting Service: a 4D vision of the Global Ocean, Serving the Ocean Services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toumazou, V.; Baudel, S.; Vinay, G.; Nouel, L.

    2005-12-01

    Mercator-Ocean is a public interest grouping formed in Toulouse in early 2002 by six major players in the French oceanography community: the space agency CNES, the scientific research centre CNRS, IFREMER (the institute of marine research and exploration), the development research institute IRD, the Meteo-France weather service, and SHOM (the French Navy's hydrography & oceanography department). In 1995, these same organizations gave themselves seven years to achieve a challenging objective: to conceive, develop and implement France's first operational oceanography system. The unique system would be capable of describing, analysing and predicting conditions at the ocean surface and subsurface in real time, anytime, anywhere in the world, even in the most inhospitable seas. That objective was met on 17 January 2001 with the release of the first Mercator ocean bulletin, providing a two-week forecast for the entire North Atlantic. Two thousands new forecast charts are now added to the MERCATOR bulletin every week. Building on these successes, a dedicated operational oceanography team, Mercator Ocean, was set up in 2002. Mercator-Ocean's mission is to deliver incremental improvements in the service provided by this new operational oceanography capability by increasing the resolution and the geographic coverage of the models used. The current high-resolution model offers a 6 km grid resolution, and the first models offering global ocean coverage has been implemented early 2004. A 1/4(°) model will be operated by the end of 2006. Objective 1- Develop an operational oceanography system using three-dimensional simulation and a high-resolution primitive-equation model capable of assimilating satellite data (from the Jason altimetry satellite in particular) and in-situ ocean observation data (particularly those gathered by the CORIOLIS centre). 2- Support applications for commercial shipping and naval forces, promote sustainable stewardship of the world's oceans

  11. Investigating Undergraduate Science Students’ Conceptions and Misconceptions of Ocean Acidification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danielson, Kathryn I.; Tanner, Kimberly D.

    2015-01-01

    Scientific research exploring ocean acidification has grown significantly in past decades. However, little science education research has investigated the extent to which undergraduate science students understand this topic. Of all undergraduate students, one might predict science students to be best able to understand ocean acidification. What conceptions and misconceptions of ocean acidification do these students hold? How does their awareness and knowledge compare across disciplines? Undergraduate biology, chemistry/biochemistry, and environmental studies students, and science faculty for comparison, were assessed on their awareness and understanding. Results revealed low awareness and understanding of ocean acidification among students compared with faculty. Compared with biology or chemistry/biochemistry students, more environmental studies students demonstrated awareness of ocean acidification and identified the key role of carbon dioxide. Novel misconceptions were also identified. These findings raise the question of whether undergraduate science students are prepared to navigate socioenvironmental issues such as ocean acidification. PMID:26163563

  12. OCEAN: Optimized Cross rEActivity estimatioN.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Czodrowski, Paul; Bolick, Wolf-Guido

    2016-10-24

    The prediction of molecular targets is highly beneficial during the drug discovery process, be it for off-target elucidation or deconvolution of phenotypic screens. Here, we present OCEAN, a target prediction tool exclusively utilizing publically available ChEMBL data. OCEAN uses a heuristics approach based on a validation set containing almost 1000 drug ← → target relationships. New ChEMBL data (ChEMBL20 as well as ChEMBL21) released after the validation was used for a prospective OCEAN performance check. The success rates of OCEAN to predict correctly the targets within the TOP10 ranks are 77% for recently marketed drugs and 62% for all new ChEMBL20 compounds and 51% for all new ChEMBL21 compounds. OCEAN is also capable of identifying polypharmacological compounds; the success rate for molecules simultaneously hitting at least two targets is 64% to be correctly predicted within the TOP10 ranks. The source code of OCEAN can be found at http://www.github.com/rdkit/OCEAN.

  13. Internal tide oceanic tomography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Zhongxiang

    2016-09-01

    A concept of internal tide oceanic tomography (ITOT) is proposed to monitor ocean warming on a global scale. ITOT is similar to acoustic tomography, but that work waves are internal tides. ITOT detects ocean temperature changes by precisely measuring travel time changes of long-range propagating internal tides. The underlying principle is that upper ocean warming strengthens ocean stratification and thus increases the propagation speed of internal tides. This concept is inspired by recent advances in observing internal tides by satellite altimetry. In particular, a plane wave fit method can separately resolve multiple internal tidal waves and thus accurately determines the phase of each wave. Two examples are presented to demonstrate the feasibility and usefulness of ITOT. In the eastern tropical Pacific, the yearly time series of travel time changes of the M2 internal tide is closely correlated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation index. In the North Atlantic, significant interannual variations and bidecadal trends are observed and consistent with the changes in ocean heat content measured by Argo floats. ITOT offers a long-term, cost-effective, environmentally friendly technique for monitoring global ocean warming. Future work is needed to quantify the accuracy of this technique.

  14. Monitoring and assessment of ocean acidification in the Arctic Ocean-A scoping paper

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robbins, Lisa L.; Yates, Kimberly K.; Feely, Richard; Fabry, Victoria

    2010-01-01

    Carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere is absorbed at the ocean surface by reacting with seawater to form a weak, naturally occurring acid called carbonic acid. As atmospheric carbon dioxide increases, the concentration of carbonic acid in seawater also increases, causing a decrease in ocean pH and carbonate mineral saturation states, a process known as ocean acidification. The oceans have absorbed approximately 525 billion tons of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, or about one-quarter to one-third of the anthropogenic carbon emissions released since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. Global surveys of ocean chemistry have revealed that seawater pH has decreased by about 0.1 units (from a pH of 8.2 to 8.1) since the 1700s due to absorption of carbon dioxide (Raven and others, 2005). Modeling studies, based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) CO2 emission scenarios, predict that atmospheric carbon dioxide levels could reach more than 500 parts per million (ppm) by the middle of this century and 800 ppm by the year 2100, causing an additional decrease in surface water pH of 0.3 pH units. Ocean acidification is a global threat and is already having profound and deleterious effects on the geology, biology, chemistry, and socioeconomic resources of coastal and marine habitats. The polar and sub-polar seas have been identified as the bellwethers for global ocean acidification.

  15. Distribution of [sup 32]Si in the world ocean: Model compared to observation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peng, T.H. (Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States)); Maier-Reimer, E. (Max-Planck Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany)); Broecker, W.S. (Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY (United States))

    1993-06-01

    The most difficult measurement of the GEOSECS survey was that of silicon 32. This paper compares the observed distribution from the survey with the distributions predicted from two global ocean models. Existing measurements show little surface to bottom or ocean to ocean variations where as the models predict three to five fold greater ratios in the deep Atlantic Ocean than in the deep Pacific and Indian oceans. A flaw in the measurements is one possibility for the discrepancy. 9 refs., 8 figs., 5 tabs.

  16. Ocean margins workshop

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1990-12-31

    The Department of Energy (DOE) is announcing the refocusing of its marine research program to emphasize the study of ocean margins and their role in modulating, controlling, and driving Global Change phenomena. This is a proposal to conduct a workshop that will establish priorities and an implementation plan for a new research initiative by the Department of Energy on the ocean margins. The workshop will be attended by about 70 scientists who specialize in ocean margin research. The workshop will be held in the Norfolk, Virginia area in late June 1990.

  17. Analysis of CHAMP scalar magnetic data to identify ocean circulation signals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manoj, C.; Maus, S.; Kuvshinov, Alexei

    Unlike tidal ocean signals, the magnetic signal of ocean circulation has not yet been identified in satellite magnetic data. In particular, the steady signal of mean ocean flow is indistinguishable from time invariant crustal signals. One option, therefore, is to predict the seasonal and annual...... variations in the ocean flow signal from ocean circulation models and compare them with the corresponding variations in satellite magnetic residuals. We used the 11 year ECCO-1 simulation data to derive the ocean transport. A 3D EM induction code in its low frequency limit, was used to simulate the magnetic...... signals at satellite altitude. We predict annual variation amplitudes in the scalar anomaly of the order of 0.3 nT. We compare these predictions with the particularly quiet CHAMP night-time scalar data, subtracting core, mantle, crustal, ocean tidal, and magnetospheric contributions to the field...

  18. Multiple stressors for oceanic primary production

    KAUST Repository

    Agusti, Susana

    2015-12-15

    Marine ecosystems are increasingly exposed to stress factors of anthropogenic origin that change their function, structure and services they deliver society. Climate change occurs simultaneously with other changes in the environment acting jointly in a context of global environmental change. For oceanic phytoplankton communities, the research conducted so far has identified stress factors associated with global change and their impact individually (warming, acidification, increased UVB radiation, pollutants). But when several stressors act simultaneously interactions and responses are not equal to the sum of individual impacts, but may have synergistic effects (the effects are multiplied) or antagonistic (cancel out the effects) that hinder predictions of the vulnerability of ecosystems to global change. Here we will examine the vulnerability of oceanic primary producers to the accumulation of different stressors associated with global change. The trend for autotrophic picoplankton to increase with temperature in the ocean has led to predictions that autotrophic picoplankton abundance will increase with warming. However, it is documented a trend towards a decline in productivity, due to declined autotroph biomass and production with warming and the associated stratification in the subtropical ocean. Models predicting an increase in abundance are in contradiction with the reported decrease in productivity in several oceanic areas, and associate oligotrophication. Here we perform a global study to analyze the relationships of autotrophic picoplankton with oceanic temperature, nutrients, underwater light and ultraviolet B (UVB) radiation, and productivity. We built a model to project the future changes of autotrophic picoplankton considering multiple environmental changes in future climate scenarios for the subtropical gyres. We considered increased water temperature, and associated changes in productivity and underwater light and UVB. The model show that warming and

  19. Towards Quantitative Ocean Precipitation Validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klepp, C.; Bakan, S.; Andersson, A.

    2009-04-01

    A thorough knowledge of global ocean precipitation is an indispensable prerequisite for the understanding and successful modelling of the global climate system as it is an important component of the water cycle. However, reliable detection of quantitative precipitation over the global oceans, especially at high latitudes during the cold season remains a challenging task for remote sensing and model based estimates. Quantitative ship validation data using reliable instruments for measuring rain and snowfall hardly exist but are highly demanded for ground validation of such products. The satellite based HOAPS (Hamburg Ocean Atmosphere Parameters and Fluxes from Satellite Data) climatology contains fields of precipitation, evaporation and the resulting freshwater flux along with 12 additional atmospheric parameters over the global ice-free ocean between 1987 and 2005. Except for the NOAA Pathfinder SST, all basic state variables are calculated from SSM/I passive microwave radiometer measurements. HOAPS contains three main data subsets that originate from one common pixel-level data source. Gridded 0.5 degree monthly, pentad and twice daily data products are freely available from www.hoaps.org. Especially for North Atlantic mid-latitude mix-phase precipitation, the HOAPS precipitation retrieval has been investigated in some depth. This analysis revealed that the HOAPS retrieval qualitatively well represents cyclonic and intense mesoscale precipitation in agreement with ship observations and Cloudsat data, while GPCP, ECMWF forecast, ERA-40 and regional model data miss mesoscale precipitation substantially. As the differences between the investigated data sets are already large under mix-phase precipitation conditions, further work is carried out on snowfall validation during the cold season at high-latitudes. A Norwegian Sea field campaign in winter 2005 was carried out using an optical disdrometer capable of measuring quantitative amounts of snowfall over the ocean

  20. Altimetric observations and model simulations of coastal Kelvin waves in the Bay of Bengal

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Nienhaus, M.J.; Subrahmanyam, B.; Murty, V.S.N.

    Wavelet analyses of sea surface height (SSH) obtained from Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) reanalysis, satellite altimetry derived SSH anomalies during 1993–2006, and HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) simulations of SSH during 2003...

  1. Ocean iron fertilization

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Naqvi, S.W.A.; Smetacek, V.

    In 2009 and 2010, an Indo-German scientific expedition dusted the ocean with iron to stimulate the biological pump that captures atmosphereic carbon dioxide. Two onboard scientists tell the story of this controversial project. Besides raising...

  2. Ocean Technology Development Tank

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — The new SWFSC laboratory in La Jolla incorporates a large sea- and fresh-water Ocean Technology Development Tank. This world-class facility expands NOAA's ability to...

  3. Loggerhead oceanic stage duration

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This study involves analysis of skeletal growth marks in humerus bones of 246 juvenile loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) stranded dead along the Atlantic US...

  4. Ocean Dumping: International Treaties

    Science.gov (United States)

    The London Convention and London Protocol are global treaties to protect the marine environment from pollution caused by the ocean dumping of wastes. The Marine, Protection, Research and Sanctuaries Act implements the requirements of the LC.

  5. Wind Generated Ocean Waves

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frigaard, Peter

    2001-01-01

    Book review: I. R. Young, Elsevier Ocean Engineering Series, Vol 2. Elsevier Science, Oxford, UK, 1999, 306 pages, hardbound, ISBN 0-08-043317-0, Dfl. 275,00 (US$ 139.50)......Book review: I. R. Young, Elsevier Ocean Engineering Series, Vol 2. Elsevier Science, Oxford, UK, 1999, 306 pages, hardbound, ISBN 0-08-043317-0, Dfl. 275,00 (US$ 139.50)...

  6. Ocean circulation studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koblinsky, C. J.

    1984-01-01

    Remotely sensed signatures of ocean surface characteristics from active and passive satellite-borne radiometers in conjunction with in situ data were utilized to examine the large scale, low frequency circulation of the world's oceans. Studies of the California Current, the Gulf of California, and the Kuroshio Extension Current in the western North Pacific were reviewed briefly. The importance of satellite oceanographic tools was emphasized.

  7. Ocean Dynamics: Dynamo

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-09-30

    1 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Ocean Dynamics: Dynamo Robert Pinkel Marine Physical...execution of the Dynamo Leg IV Experiment in December 2011. Our objective was to document the development of the diurnal surface layer and its...2. REPORT TYPE N/A 3. DATES COVERED - 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Ocean Dynamics: Dynamo 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM

  8. Microplast in the ocean

    OpenAIRE

    Jedal, Jonathan Yngve Bech; Lynderup, Martine Pedersen; Nielsen, Lykke Bebbie; Paul, Maj Wilborg

    2015-01-01

    This paper deals with the complex problems followed by the presence of microplastic in ocean, and its negative effects on the marine environment. This is specified in the following problem: Which problems do the presence of microplast, and the toxins present in the ocean, provide for the marine environment? An increased amount of microplastic from both primary and secondary sources disrupts the marine environment. Due to its amorphous structure, plastic is able to release toxic monomers and a...

  9. Dynamics of Oceanic Motions

    Science.gov (United States)

    1999-09-30

    Journal of Marine Systems , 20, 129-156, 1999. [9] Rothschild...Robinson, A.R., J.J. McCarthy, and B.J. Rothschild. Interdisciplinary Ocean Science is Evolving and a Systems Approach is Essential. Journal of Marine Systems , 1999...Astrophysical Fluid Dynamics, 1999. [17] Lermusiaux, P.F.J. Evolving the sub-space of the three-dimensional ocean variability, Journal of Marine Systems ,

  10. Ocean microbial metagenomics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerkhof, Lee J.; Goodman, Robert M.

    2009-09-01

    Technology for accessing the genomic DNA of microorganisms, directly from environmental samples without prior cultivation, has opened new vistas to understanding microbial diversity and functions. Especially as applied to soils and the oceans, environments on Earth where microbial diversity is vast, metagenomics and its emergent approaches have the power to transform rapidly our understanding of environmental microbiology. Here we explore select recent applications of the metagenomic suite to ocean microbiology.

  11. Ocean surface wind stress

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrison, D. E.

    1984-01-01

    The need for improved surface wind and wind stress data is discussed. The collection of wind data using ship reports, research buoys, and cloud motion vectors is examined. The need for data on surface-wind stress fields is emphasized. Accurate stress data are required for studying: (1) the normal seasonal cycle and the intraannual events; (2) wind stress curls and the forcing of ocean circulation; (3) El Nino events; and (4) the low response of the midlatitude ocean circulation.

  12. Deep Water Ocean Acoustics

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-07-17

    understanding. During the past few years, the physics effects studied have been three-dimensional propagation on global scales, deep water ambient noise ...and Climate of the Ocean, Phase II (ECCO2): High-Resolution Global-Ocean and Sea-Ice Data Synthesis) model re- analysis for the years 1992 and 1993...the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm) to the available satellite and in-situ data5. The ECCO2 product is the

  13. Diagnosing oceanic nutrient deficiency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, C. Mark

    2016-11-01

    The supply of a range of nutrient elements to surface waters is an important driver of oceanic production and the subsequent linked cycling of the nutrients and carbon. Relative deficiencies of different nutrients with respect to biological requirements, within both surface and internal water masses, can be both a key indicator and driver of the potential for these nutrients to become limiting for the production of new organic material in the upper ocean. The availability of high-quality, full-depth and global-scale datasets on the concentrations of a wide range of both macro- and micro-nutrients produced through the international GEOTRACES programme provides the potential for estimation of multi-element deficiencies at unprecedented scales. Resultant coherent large-scale patterns in diagnosed deficiency can be linked to the interacting physical-chemical-biological processes which drive upper ocean nutrient biogeochemistry. Calculations of ranked deficiencies across multiple elements further highlight important remaining uncertainties in the stoichiometric plasticity of nutrient ratios within oceanic microbial systems and caveats with regards to linkages to upper ocean nutrient limitation. This article is part of the themed issue 'Biological and climatic impacts of ocean trace element chemistry'.

  14. Towards a suite of test cases and a pycomodo library to assess and improve numerical methods in ocean models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garnier, Valérie; Honnorat, Marc; Benshila, Rachid; Boutet, Martial; Cambon, Gildas; Chanut, Jérome; Couvelard, Xavier; Debreu, Laurent; Ducousso, Nicolas; Duhaut, Thomas; Dumas, Franck; Flavoni, Simona; Gouillon, Flavien; Lathuilière, Cyril; Le Boyer, Arnaud; Le Sommer, Julien; Lyard, Florent; Marsaleix, Patrick; Marchesiello, Patrick; Soufflet, Yves

    2016-04-01

    The COMODO group (http://www.comodo-ocean.fr) gathers developers of global and limited-area ocean models (NEMO, ROMS_AGRIF, S, MARS, HYCOM, S-TUGO) with the aim to address well-identified numerical issues. In order to evaluate existing models, to improve numerical approaches and methods or concept (such as effective resolution) to assess the behavior of numerical model in complex hydrodynamical regimes and to propose guidelines for the development of future ocean models, a benchmark suite that covers both idealized test cases dedicated to targeted properties of numerical schemes and more complex test case allowing the evaluation of the kernel coherence is proposed. The benchmark suite is built to study separately, then together, the main components of an ocean model : the continuity and momentum equations, the advection-diffusion of the tracers, the vertical coordinate design and the time stepping algorithms. The test cases are chosen for their simplicity of implementation (analytic initial conditions), for their capacity to focus on a (few) scheme or part of the kernel, for the availability of analytical solutions or accurate diagnoses and lastly to simulate a key oceanic processus in a controlled environment. Idealized test cases allow to verify properties of numerical schemes advection-diffusion of tracers, - upwelling, - lock exchange, - baroclinic vortex, - adiabatic motion along bathymetry, and to put into light numerical issues that remain undetected in realistic configurations - trajectory of barotropic vortex, - interaction current - topography. When complexity in the simulated dynamics grows up, - internal wave, - unstable baroclinic jet, the sharing of the same experimental designs by different existing models is useful to get a measure of the model sensitivity to numerical choices (Soufflet et al., 2016). Lastly, test cases help in understanding the submesoscale influence on the dynamics (Couvelard et al., 2015). Such a benchmark suite is an interesting

  15. New perspectives in ocean acidification research: editor's introduction to the special feature on ocean acidification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munday, Philip L

    2017-09-01

    Ocean acidification, caused by the uptake of additional carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere, will have far-reaching impacts on marine ecosystems (Gattuso & Hansson 2011 Ocean acidification Oxford University Press). The predicted changes in ocean chemistry will affect whole biological communities and will occur within the context of global warming and other anthropogenic stressors; yet much of the biological research conducted to date has tested the short-term responses of single species to ocean acidification conditions alone. While an important starting point, these studies may have limited predictive power because they do not account for possible interactive effects of multiple climate change drivers or for ecological interactions with other species. Furthermore, few studies have considered variation in responses among populations or the evolutionary potential within populations. Therefore, our knowledge about the potential for marine organisms to adapt to ocean acidification is extremely limited. In 2015, two of the pioneers in the field, Ulf Riebesell and Jean-Pierre Gattuso, noted that to move forward as a field of study, future research needed to address critical knowledge gaps in three major areas: (i) multiple environmental drivers, (ii) ecological interactions and (iii) acclimation and adaptation (Riebesell and Gattuso 2015 Nat. Clim. Change5, 12-14 (doi:10.1038/nclimate2456)). In May 2016, more than 350 researchers, students and stakeholders met at the 4th International Symposium on the Ocean in a High-CO2 World in Hobart, Tasmania, to discuss the latest advances in understanding ocean acidification and its biological consequences. Many of the papers presented at the symposium reflected this shift in focus from short-term, single species and single stressor experiments towards multi-stressor and multispecies experiments that address knowledge gaps about the ecological impacts of ocean acidification on marine communities. The nine papers in this

  16. Is global warming already changing ocean productivity?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. A. Henson

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Global warming is predicted to alter the ocean's biological productivity. But how will we recognise the impacts of climate change on ocean productivity? The most comprehensive information available on the global distribution of ocean productivity comes from satellite ocean colour data. Now that over ten years of SeaWiFS data have accumulated, can we begin to detect and attribute global warming trends in productivity? Here we compare recent trends in SeaWiFS data to longer-term records from three biogeochemical models (GFDL, IPSL and NCAR. We find that detection of real trends in the satellite data is confounded by the relatively short time series and large interannual and decadal variability in productivity. Thus, recent observed changes in chlorophyll, primary production and the size of the oligotrophic gyres cannot be unequivocally attributed to the impact of global warming. Instead, our analyses suggest that a time series of ~40 yr length is needed to distinguish a global warming trend from natural variability. Analysis of modelled chlorophyll and primary production from 2001–2100 suggests that, on average, the global warming trend will not be unambiguously separable from decadal variability until ~2055. Because the magnitude of natural variability in chlorophyll and primary production is larger than, or similar to, the global warming trend, a consistent, decades-long data record must be established if the impact of climate change on ocean productivity is to be definitively detected.

  17. Ocean (De)oxygenation Across the Last Deglaciation: Insights for the Future

    OpenAIRE

    Jaccard, Samuel; Galbraith, Eric D.; Frölicher, Thomas L.; Gruber, Nicolas

    2014-01-01

    Anthropogenic warming is expected to drive oxygen out of the ocean as the water temperature rises and the rate of exchange between subsurface waters and the atmosphere slows due to enhanced upper ocean density stratification. Observations from recent decades are tantalizingly consistent with this prediction, though these changes remain subtle in the face of natural variability. Earth system model projections unanimously predict a long-term decrease in the global ocean oxygen inventory, but sh...

  18. Ocean Physicochemistry versus Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Góralski, Bogdan

    2014-01-01

    It is the dwindling ocean productivity which leaves dissolved carbon dioxide in the seawater. Its solubility is diminished by the rise in ocean water temperature (by one degree Celsius since 1910, according to IPCC). Excess carbon dioxide is emitted into the atmosphere, while its growing concentration in seawater leads to ocean acidification. Ocean acidification leading to lowering pH of surface ocean water remains an unsolved problem of science. My today’s lecture will mark an attempt at ...

  19. Ocean fertilization: a potential means of geoengineering?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lampitt, R S; Achterberg, E P; Anderson, T R; Hughes, J A; Iglesias-Rodriguez, M D; Kelly-Gerreyn, B A; Lucas, M; Popova, E E; Sanders, R; Shepherd, J G; Smythe-Wright, D; Yool, A

    2008-11-13

    The oceans sequester carbon from the atmosphere partly as a result of biological productivity. Over much of the ocean surface, this productivity is limited by essential nutrients and we discuss whether it is likely that sequestration can be enhanced by supplying limiting nutrients. Various methods of supply have been suggested and we discuss the efficacy of each and the potential side effects that may develop as a result. Our conclusion is that these methods have the potential to enhance sequestration but that the current level of knowledge from the observations and modelling carried out to date does not provide a sound foundation on which to make clear predictions or recommendations. For ocean fertilization to become a viable option to sequester CO2, we need more extensive and targeted fieldwork and better mathematical models of ocean biogeochemical processes. Models are needed both to interpret field observations and to make reliable predictions about the side effects of large-scale fertilization. They would also be an essential tool with which to verify that sequestration has effectively taken place. There is considerable urgency to address climate change mitigation and this demands that new fieldwork plans are developed rapidly. In contrast to previous experiments, these must focus on the specific objective which is to assess the possibilities of CO2 sequestration through fertilization.

  20. Source regions of stratospheric VSLS in the Indian Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quack, Birgit; Hepach, Helmke; Atlas, Elliot; Bracher, Astrid; Endres, Sonja; Arevalo-Martinez, Damian; Bange, Hermann; Lennartz, Sinikka; Steinhoff, Tobias; Booge, Dennis; Zarvasky, Alexander; Marandino, Christa; Patey, Matt; Achterberg, Eric; Dengler, Markus; Fiehn, Alina; Tegtmeier, Susann; Krüger, Kirstin

    2016-04-01

    Halogenated very-short-lived substances (VSLS), which are naturally produced in the ocean, play a significant role in present day ozone depletion, in particular in combination with enhanced stratospheric sulfate aerosol, which is also partly derived from oceanic VSLS. The decline of anthropogenic chlorine in the stratosphere within the 21st century will increase the relative importance of the natural emissions on stratospheric ozone destruction. Especially, oceanic sources and source regions of the compounds need to be better constrained, in order to improve the future prediction. During boreal summer the Asian monsoon circulation transports air masses from the Indian Ocean to the stratosphere, while the contribution of VSLS from this ocean to stratospheric halogen and sulfur is unknown. During the research cruises SO 234/2 and SO 235 in July-August 2014 onboard RV SONNE oceanic and atmospheric halogenated VSLS such as bromoform (CHBr3), dibromomethane (CH2Br2) and methyl iodide (CH3I) were measured in the subtropical and tropical West Indian Ocean for the first time. Here we present the oceanic sources of the halogenated compounds and their relation to other biogeochemical parameters (short- and longlived trace gases, phytoplankton and nutrients) along the cruise track, which covered coastal, upwelling and open ocean regimes and the Seychelles-Chagos thermocline ridge as important source region for stratospheric bromine.

  1. Addressing Geohazards Through Ocean Drilling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Craig Shipp

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available Natural geohazards, such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, landslides, and volcanic collapse, are of immediate societal concern. In an oceanic setting (Fig. 1, all are capable of generating tsunami that threaten coastal zones at distances of many thousands of kilometers. This power and its effects were forcefully shown by the giant earthquake (Mw 9.2 and tsunami of 26 December 2004 off the coast of northern Sumatra. Smaller magnitude submarine earthquakes andlandslides occur with shorter recurrence intervals and the capability of tsunami generation, creating hazards for local coastal communities as well as for offshore industry and infrastructure. At the other end of the scale, the geologic record suggests that less common, large-volume volcanic collapses and extraterrestrial meteorite and comet impacts in ocean basins have the potential to initiate tsunami ofextraordinary power that can threaten huge sections of coastlines with growing populations. These events also disperse enormous volumes of ash, steam, and ejecta into the atmosphere, with short- and long-term consequences, including climate change. All of these processes, which have operated throughout the Earth’s history, are instrumental in shaping the Earth system today. However, they are characteristically difficult to predict, and viable risk assessmentand hazard mitigation depend on a clearer understanding of the causes, distributions, and consequences of such natural events.

  2. NOAA's Role in Sustaining Global Ocean Observations: Future Plans for OAR's Ocean Observing and Monitoring Division

    Science.gov (United States)

    Todd, James; Legler, David; Piotrowicz, Stephen; Raymond, Megan; Smith, Emily; Tedesco, Kathy; Thurston, Sidney

    2017-04-01

    The Ocean Observing and Monitoring Division (OOMD, formerly the Climate Observation Division) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Program Office provides long-term, high-quality global observations, climate information and products for researchers, forecasters, assessments and other users of environmental information. In this context, OOMD-supported activities serve a foundational role in an enterprise that aims to advance 1) scientific understanding, 2) monitoring and prediction of climate and 3) understanding of potential impacts to enable a climate resilient society. Leveraging approximately 50% of the Global Ocean Observing System, OOMD employs an internationally-coordinated, multi-institution global strategy that brings together data from multiple platforms including surface drifting buoys, Argo profiling floats, flux/transport moorings (RAMA, PIRATA, OceanSITES), GLOSS tide gauges, SOOP-XBT and SOOP-CO2, ocean gliders and repeat hydrographic sections (GO-SHIP). OOMD also engages in outreach, education and capacity development activities to deliver training on the social-economic applications of ocean data. This presentation will highlight recent activities and plans for 2017 and beyond.

  3. Ocean circulation using altimetry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minster, Jean-Francois; Brossier, C.; Gennero, M. C.; Mazzega, P.; Remy, F.; Letraon, P. Y.; Blanc, F.

    1991-01-01

    Our group has been very actively involved in promoting satellite altimetry as a unique tool for observing ocean circulation and its variability. TOPEX/POSEIDON is particularly interesting as it is optimized for this purpose. It will probably be the first instrument really capable of observing the seasonal and interannual variability of subtropical and polar gyres and the first to eventually document the corresponding variability of their heat flux transport. The studies of these phenomena require data of the best quality, unbiased extraction of the signal, mixing of these satellite data with in situ measurements, and assimilation of the whole set into a dynamic description of ocean circulation. Our group intends to develop responses to all these requirements. We will concentrate mostly on the circulation of the South Atlantic and Indian Oceans: This will be done in close connection with other groups involved in the study of circulation of the tropical Atlantic Ocean, in the altimetry measurements (in particular, those of the tidal issue), and in the techniques of data assimilation in ocean circulation models.

  4. The ocean planet.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hinrichsen, D

    1998-01-01

    The Blue Planet is 70% water, and all but 3% of it is salt water. Life on earth first evolved in the primordial soup of ancient seas, and though today's seas provide 99% of all living space on the planet, little is known about the world's oceans. However, the fact that the greatest threats to the integrity of our oceans come from land-based activities is becoming clear. Humankind is in the process of annihilating the coastal and ocean ecosystems and the wealth of biodiversity they harbor. Mounting population and development pressures have taken a grim toll on coastal and ocean resources. The trend arising from such growth is the chronic overexploitation of marine resources, whereby rapidly expanding coastal populations and the growth of cities have contributed to a rising tide of pollution in nearly all of the world's seas. This crisis is made worse by government inaction and a frustrating inability to enforce existing coastal and ocean management regulations. Such inability is mainly because concerned areas contain so many different types of regulations and involve so many levels of government, that rational planning and coordination of efforts are rendered impossible. Concerted efforts are needed by national governments and the international community to start preserving the ultimate source of all life on earth.

  5. Bottom Interaction in Ocean Acoustic Propagation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-30

    to thousands of kilometers in the deep ocean where the sound channel is not bottom limited. The specific goal is to study the role of bottom...They are barely observable when the ambient noise and PE predicted arrivals are loud (such as in the sound 2 channel), but become the dominant...obvious seafloor feature. Figures 2 to 5 show maps of the transmission locations that excite BDSRs. Essentially no BDSR arrivals are observed on the

  6. Comparative Analysis of Upper Ocean Heat Content Variability from Ensemble Operational Ocean Analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Yan; Balmaseda, Magdalena A.; Boyer, Tim; Ferry, Nicolas; Good, Simon; Ishikawa, Ichiro; Rienecker, Michele; Rosati, Tony; Yin, Yonghong; Kumar, Arun

    2012-01-01

    Upper ocean heat content (HC) is one of the key indicators of climate variability on many time-scales extending from seasonal to interannual to long-term climate trends. For example, HC in the tropical Pacific provides information on thermocline anomalies that is critical for the longlead forecast skill of ENSO. Since HC variability is also associated with SST variability, a better understanding and monitoring of HC variability can help us understand and forecast SST variability associated with ENSO and other modes such as Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Tropical Atlantic Variability (TAV) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). An accurate ocean initialization of HC anomalies in coupled climate models could also contribute to skill in decadal climate prediction. Errors, and/or uncertainties, in the estimation of HC variability can be affected by many factors including uncertainties in surface forcings, ocean model biases, and deficiencies in data assimilation schemes. Changes in observing systems can also leave an imprint on the estimated variability. The availability of multiple operational ocean analyses (ORA) that are routinely produced by operational and research centers around the world provides an opportunity to assess uncertainties in HC analyses, to help identify gaps in observing systems as they impact the quality of ORAs and therefore climate model forecasts. A comparison of ORAs also gives an opportunity to identify deficiencies in data assimilation schemes, and can be used as a basis for development of real-time multi-model ensemble HC monitoring products. The OceanObs09 Conference called for an intercomparison of ORAs and use of ORAs for global ocean monitoring. As a follow up, we intercompared HC variations from ten ORAs -- two objective analyses based on in-situ data only and eight model analyses based on ocean data assimilation systems. The mean, annual cycle, interannual variability and longterm trend of HC have

  7. assessing contributions of jgofs; previewing Studies in Ocean Ecology, Biogeochemistry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinberg, Deborah K.; Ducklow, Hugh W.; Buesseler, Ken O.; Bowles, Margaret C.

    Despite impediments to travel imposed by global political and health concerns, 332 scientists and students from 32 countries gathered in Washington, D.C. in early May to celebrate the conclusion of the Joint Global Ocean Flux Study (JGOFS), and to assess both its accomplishments and the future course of research in ocean ecology and biogeochemistry.Launched in 1987 under the auspices of the Scientific Committee on Oceanic Research (SCOR), JGOFS became the first core project of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) 2 years later as its first field studies were getting underway. Global in scope and multinational and interdisciplinary from its inception, JGOFS adopted two major goals: to understand the processes controlling the cycling of carbon and other biogenic elements in the ocean and their exchange with the atmosphere and the sea floor, and to advance our capacity to predict the response of ocean systems to anthropogenic perturbations.

  8. Eastern Pacific Ocean Conference

    Science.gov (United States)

    The promotion of interaction among investigators of all oceanographic disciplines studying the eastern Pacific Ocean was the goal of the 1990 Eastern Pacific Ocean Conference (EPOC), held October 17-19 on the snow-covered slopes of Mt. Hood, Oreg. Thirty oceanographers representing all disciplines attended.Dick Barber, Duke University Marine Lab, Beaufort, N.C., chaired a session on the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, emphasizing issues related to biological activity. Steve Ramp of the Naval Postgraduate School in Montery, Calif., chaired a session on recent results from northern and central California experiments. On October 19, following an early morning earthquake, a business meeting and discussions regarding a collaboration in future experiments were held.

  9. Indian Ocean Traffic: Introduction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lola Sharon Davidson

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Like the Mediterranean, the Indian Ocean has been a privileged site of cross-cultural contact since ancient times. In this special issue, our contributors track disparate movements of people and ideas around the Indian Ocean region and explore the cultural implications of these contacts and their role in processes that we would come to call transnationalization and globalisation. The nation is a relatively recent phenomenon anywhere on the globe, and in many countries around the Indian Ocean it was a product of colonisation and independence. So the processes of exchange, migration and cultural influence going on there for many centuries were mostly based on the economics of goods and trade routes, rather than on national identity and state policy.

  10. Bottom friction optimization for barotropic tide modelling using the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boutet, Martial; Lathuilière, Cyril; Baraille, Rémy; Son Hoang, Hong; Morel, Yves

    2014-05-01

    tested and validated with the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) in barotropic mode (one isopycnal layer), using twin experiments (the observations are obtained with the direct model, prescribing the reference parameter distribution). The modeled area is the Bay of Biscay and the English Channel and the estimated parameter is the bottom roughness (z0).

  11. Impact of synthetic abyssal hill roughness on resolved motions in numerical global ocean tide models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timko, Patrick G.; Arbic, Brian K.; Goff, John A.; Ansong, Joseph K.; Smith, Walter H. F.; Melet, Angélique; Wallcraft, Alan J.

    2017-04-01

    Global models of seafloor topography have incomplete and inconsistent resolution at horizontal wavelengths less than about 10-20 km, notably due to their inability to resolve abyssal hills in areas unsurveyed by ships (that is, about 90% of the global seafloor). We investigated the impact of this unresolved bottom roughness on global numerical simulations of the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) that are forced exclusively by the M2 and K1 internal tides. Simulations were run with horizontal resolutions of 0.08° and 0.04°, 10 isopycnal layers in the vertical direction, and two versions of bathymetry: one derived from the SRTM30_PLUS global bathymetry model, and one merging SRTM30_PLUS with a synthetic fractal surface simulating the expected roughness of abyssal hills in the 2-10 km horizontal wavelength band. Power spectra of the two bathymetry versions diverge at wavenumbers of order 4*10-4 radians/m and higher (wavelengths of order 15 km and lower), with more pronounced differences evident on the 0.04° grid, as the 0.08° grid has a more limited ability to capture bathymetric details at the abyssal hill scale. Our simulations show an increase in the amount of kinetic and potential energy in higher vertical modes, especially in the 0.04° simulation, when the synthetic roughness is added. Adding abyssal hills to the 0.04° simulation increases the M2 kinetic energy for modes 3 and 4 by 12-18% and the potential energy by 5 - 15%. Adding abyssal hills to the 0.08° simulation yields a reduced, though still measurable, impact on simulated baroclinic tidal energies. Baroclinic tidal energy conversion rates increase by up to 16% in regions of high roughness, and by up to 3.4% in the global integral. The 3.4% increase in global conversion rates in the numerical simulations is less than the 10% increase computed from a linear analysis on a 0.008° grid because of the resolution limitations of the numerical simulations. The results obtained in the present study

  12. Ocean iron cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyd, Philip W.

    Interest in the biogeochemical cycle of iron has grown rapidly over the last two decades, due to the potential role of this element in modulating global climate in the geological past and ocean productivity in the present day. This trace metal has a disproportionately large effect (1 × 105 C:Fe) on photosynthetic carbon fixation by phytoplankton. In around one third of the open ocean, so-called high-nitrate low-chlorophyll (HNLC) regions, the resident phytoplankton have low growth rates despite an abundance of plant nutrients. This is due to the low supply of iron. Iron is present in the ocean in three phases, dissolved, colloidal, and particulate (biogenic and lithogenic). However, iron chemistry is complex with interactions between chemistry and biology such as the production of iron-binding siderophores by oceanic bacteria. This results in the interplay of inorganic chemistry, photochemistry, and organic complexation. Sources of new iron include dust deposition, upwelling of iron-rich deep waters, and the resuspension and lateral transport of sediments. Sinks for iron are mainly biological as evidenced by the vertical nutrient-like profile for dissolved iron in the ocean. Iron is rapidly recycled by the upper ocean biota within a so-called "ferrous wheel." The fe ratio [(new iron)/(new + regenerated iron)] provides an index of the relative supply of iron to the biota by new versus recycled iron. Over the last 15 years, interest in the potential role of iron in shaping climate in the geological past resulted in some of the most ambitious experiments in oceanography: large-scale (i.e., 50-1000 km2) iron enrichment of HNLC waters. They have provided valuable insights into how iron supply influences the biogeochemical cycles of elements such as carbon, sulfur, silicon, nitrogen, and phosphate.

  13. A Review of Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction Studies in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    A large number of papers have been published and great efforts have been made in the recent 20 years by the Chinese oceanographic and meteorological scientists in the ocean-atmosphere interaction studies. The present paper is an overview of the major achievements made by Chinese scientists and their collaborators in studies of larger scale ocean-atmosphere interaction in the following oceans: the South China Sea, the Tropical Pacific, the Indian Ocean and the North Pacific. Many interesting phenomena and dynamic mechanisms have been discovered and studied in these papers. These achievements have improved our understanding of climate variability and have great implications in climate prediction, and thus are highly relevant to the ongoing international Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR)efforts.

  14. Postglacial Indian Ocean

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Naidu, P.D.

    stream_size 37509 stream_content_type text/plain stream_name Encyclopedia_Quatern_Sci_2006_1831.pdf.txt stream_source_info Encyclopedia_Quatern_Sci_2006_1831.pdf.txt Content-Encoding UTF-8 Content-Type text/plain; charset=UTF-8... Encyclopedia of Quaternary Sciences -. - - -. - -- - PALEOCEANOGRAPHY. RECORDS/Postglacial Indian Ocean 1831 Atlantic Ocean. Paleocea~zography 20, PA1017, (doi:10.1029/ 2004PA001021). Diekmann, B., Fiitterer, D. K., Grobe, H., et al. (2004). Terrigenous...

  15. Downscaling ocean conditions with application to the Gulf of Maine, Scotian Shelf and adjacent deep ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katavouta, Anna; Thompson, Keith R.

    2016-08-01

    The overall goal is to downscale ocean conditions predicted by an existing global prediction system and evaluate the results using observations from the Gulf of Maine, Scotian Shelf and adjacent deep ocean. The first step is to develop a one-way nested regional model and evaluate its predictions using observations from multiple sources including satellite-borne sensors of surface temperature and sea level, CTDs, Argo floats and moored current meters. It is shown that the regional model predicts more realistic fields than the global system on the shelf because it has higher resolution and includes tides that are absent from the global system. However, in deep water the regional model misplaces deep ocean eddies and meanders associated with the Gulf Stream. This is not because the regional model's dynamics are flawed but rather is the result of internally generated variability in deep water that leads to decoupling of the regional model from the global system. To overcome this problem, the next step is to spectrally nudge the regional model to the large scales (length scales > 90 km) of the global system. It is shown this leads to more realistic predictions off the shelf. Wavenumber spectra show that even though spectral nudging constrains the large scales, it does not suppress the variability on small scales; on the contrary, it favours the formation of eddies with length scales below the cutoff wavelength of the spectral nudging.

  16. Near coastal ocean attributes of salmon - Ocean Survival of Salmonids

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A study to evaluate the role of changing ocean conditions on growth and survival of juvenile salmon from the Columbia River basin as they enter the Columbia River...

  17. Effects of near-future ocean acidification, fishing, and marine protection on a temperate coastal ecosystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cornwall, Christopher E; Eddy, Tyler D

    2015-02-01

    Understanding ecosystem responses to global and local anthropogenic impacts is paramount to predicting future ecosystem states. We used an ecosystem modeling approach to investigate the independent and cumulative effects of fishing, marine protection, and ocean acidification on a coastal ecosystem. To quantify the effects of ocean acidification at the ecosystem level, we used information from the peer-reviewed literature on the effects of ocean acidification. Using an Ecopath with Ecosim ecosystem model for the Wellington south coast, including the Taputeranga Marine Reserve (MR), New Zealand, we predicted ecosystem responses under 4 scenarios: ocean acidification + fishing; ocean acidification + MR (no fishing); no ocean acidification + fishing; no ocean acidification + MR for the year 2050. Fishing had a larger effect on trophic group biomasses and trophic structure than ocean acidification, whereas the effects of ocean acidification were only large in the absence of fishing. Mortality by fishing had large, negative effects on trophic group biomasses. These effects were similar regardless of the presence of ocean acidification. Ocean acidification was predicted to indirectly benefit certain species in the MR scenario. This was because lobster (Jasus edwardsii) only recovered to 58% of the MR biomass in the ocean acidification + MR scenario, a situation that benefited the trophic groups lobsters prey on. Most trophic groups responded antagonistically to the interactive effects of ocean acidification and marine protection (46%; reduced response); however, many groups responded synergistically (33%; amplified response). Conservation and fisheries management strategies need to account for the reduced recovery potential of some exploited species under ocean acidification, nonadditive interactions of multiple factors, and indirect responses of species to ocean acidification caused by declines in calcareous predators. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

  18. Bio-Physical Ocean Modeling in the Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-01-01

    SS11/G (Rev. 12- efl ] (o) Bio-Physical Ocean Modeling in the Gulf of Mexico Sergio deRada, Robert A. Arnone, Stephanie Anderson Naval Research...for viewing the model results interactively and dynamically in real-time. Initial assessment of the model prediction skill is presented along with...comprehensive picture of the ocean environment. In mutual benefit, the numerical solution gains skill from the assimilation of observational data which are

  19. Evolutionary change during experimental ocean acidification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pespeni, Melissa H; Sanford, Eric; Gaylord, Brian; Hill, Tessa M; Hosfelt, Jessica D; Jaris, Hannah K; LaVigne, Michèle; Lenz, Elizabeth A; Russell, Ann D; Young, Megan K; Palumbi, Stephen R

    2013-04-23

    Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) conditions are driving unprecedented changes in seawater chemistry, resulting in reduced pH and carbonate ion concentrations in the Earth's oceans. This ocean acidification has negative but variable impacts on individual performance in many marine species. However, little is known about the adaptive capacity of species to respond to an acidified ocean, and, as a result, predictions regarding future ecosystem responses remain incomplete. Here we demonstrate that ocean acidification generates striking patterns of genome-wide selection in purple sea urchins (Strongylocentrotus purpuratus) cultured under different CO2 levels. We examined genetic change at 19,493 loci in larvae from seven adult populations cultured under realistic future CO2 levels. Although larval development and morphology showed little response to elevated CO2, we found substantial allelic change in 40 functional classes of proteins involving hundreds of loci. Pronounced genetic changes, including excess amino acid replacements, were detected in all populations and occurred in genes for biomineralization, lipid metabolism, and ion homeostasis--gene classes that build skeletons and interact in pH regulation. Such genetic change represents a neglected and important impact of ocean acidification that may influence populations that show few outward signs of response to acidification. Our results demonstrate the capacity for rapid evolution in the face of ocean acidification and show that standing genetic variation could be a reservoir of resilience to climate change in this coastal upwelling ecosystem. However, effective response to strong natural selection demands large population sizes and may be limited in species impacted by other environmental stressors.

  20. Trace metal evidence for a poorly ventilated glacial Southern Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagner, Meghan; Hendy, Ingrid L.

    2017-08-01

    Glacial benthic δ13C and Δ14C measurements from the Atlantic Ocean have been interpreted to indicate the existence of a poorly ventilated Southern Ocean with greater CO2 and nutrient contents compared to present. Enhanced storage of CO2 in the deep ocean predicts that oxygen concentrations should have declined at the same time-a prediction increasingly supported by evidence for oxygen depletion in the glacial Southern Ocean. Here we take a novel approach by using a suite of redox-sensitive trace metals (Ag, Cd, Re and Mo) to show that Southern Ocean sediments from two cores in the Atlantic sector were suboxic during and prior to deglaciation, implying changes to ocean circulation and/or elevated export production that significantly altered deep water chemistry. In the Cape Basin, enrichments of the authigenically deposited trace metal Re are comparable to those found in oxygen minimum zones, pointing to substantial decreases in oxygenation. Furthermore, trace metal results suggest potential spatial heterogeneity in the glacial Southern Ocean, and a more complicated oceanographic and oxygenation history than has previously been assumed.

  1. Deep ocean influence on upper ocean baroclinic instability saturation

    CERN Document Server

    Olascoaga, M J; Sheinbaum, J

    2003-01-01

    In this paper we extend earlier results regarding the effects of the lower layer of the ocean (below the thermocline) on the baroclinic instability within the upper layer (above the thermocline). We confront quasigeostrophic baroclinic instability properties of a 2.5-layer model with those of a 3-layer model with a very thick deep layer, which has been shown to predict spectral instability for basic state parameters for which the 2.5-layer model predicts nonlinear stability. We compute and compare maximum normal-mode perturbation growth rates, as well as rigorous upper bounds on the nonlinear growth of perturbations to unstable basic states, paying particular attention to the region of basic state parameters where the stability properties of the 2.5- and 3-layer model differ substantially. We found that normal-mode perturbation growth rates in the 3-layer model tend to maximize in this region. We also found that the size of state space available for eddy-amplitude growth tends to minimize in this same region....

  2. Ensuring Continuity of Coastal Ocean Optical Products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crout, Richard L.; Ladner, Sherwin; Lawson, Adam; Martinolich, Paul; Arnone, Bob; Vandermeulen, Ryan; Bowers, Jennifer

    2015-12-01

    Satellite ocean colour remote sensing evolved rapidly following the 1978 launch of the Color Zone Coastal Scanner (CZCS). Since that launch, the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) has developed and transitioned tactical ocean optical products (diver visibility, laser penetration depth, chlorophyll concentration, and inherent optical products) from polar-orbiting ocean color sensors to the Naval Oceanographic Office (NAVOCEANO). Beginning with CZCS, NRL exploited the succession of ocean color sensors, including Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS), Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (Aqua MODIS), MEdium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS), and the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership Visible Infra Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite (S-NPP VIIRS). Additionally, the geostationary Communication, Ocean, and Meteorological Satellite Geostationary Ocean Color Imager (COMS GOCI) is also being exploited. Future sensors of interest include the Sentinel-3 series Ocean and Land Color Imager (OLCI) and the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) VIIRS. NRL’s Automated Optical Processing System (AOPS) processes ocean color satellite data to provide an operational near-real time depiction of the bio-optical ocean environment. These products are also used for validation of/or assimilation into ocean forecast models and to predict the impact of the environment on Navy coastal operations. NRL contributes to advancements in satellite processing techniques, atmospheric correction for coastal waters, enhanced resolution optical properties using imaging bands, cloud masking, and sensor merging for optimal operational products. Multiple satellites are necessary to provide changing conditions throughout the day allowing for detection of rapid optical temporal and spatial changes due to tides, winds, and river outflow. The Sentinel-3A and -3B OLCIs are critical to Navy coastal operations due to the quality of the data and the morning orbit that complements MODIS Aqua and

  3. Oceans from Space

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aage, Christian; Allan, T.D.; Lindgren, G.

    , as well as by those responsible for the planning or operation of any offshore activity. This book describes, primarily for university students studying the design of offshore structures, the statistics of ocean waves and the significant advances in the measurement of waves which have resulted over...

  4. Investigating Ocean Pollution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    LeBeau, Sue

    1998-01-01

    Describes a fifth-grade class project to investigate two major forms of ocean pollution: plastics and oil. Students work in groups and read, discuss, speculate, offer opinions, and participate in activities such as keeping a plastics journal, testing the biodegradability of plastics, and simulating oil spills. Activities culminate in…

  5. Deep Water Ocean Acoustics

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-08-03

    Award No.: N00014-14-C-0172 Report No. QSR-14C0172-Ocean Acoustics-063016 Prepared for: Office of Naval Research For the period: April 1...The source level in this overlay is a free parameter (but is estimated to be ~215 dB) re 1uPa2/m2). This agreement is exceptional. It shows the dip

  6. Fukushima and the ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buesseler, Ken

    2013-04-01

    The triple disaster of the March 11, 2011 earthquake, tsunami, and subsequent radiation releases at Fukushima Dai-ichi were unprecedented events for the ocean and society. The earthquake was the fourth largest ever recorded; the tsunami resulted in over 20,000 dead or missing and destroyed entire towns; and the radiation releases from the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plants created the largest accidental release of man-made radionuclides to the oceans in history— a release that continues to this day. Compared to monitoring on land, studies of the ocean are far fewer, yet the area impacted and quantity delivered- 80% of all radioactivity released- is far greater. For oceanographers, this presents a challenge of unprecedented scope and complexity: to understand exactly how these events played out, how radiation continues to move through the marine system (including important seafood items), and, in turn, how best to communicate scientific findings that will inform public policy decisions far into the future. This presentation will provide an overview of the sources and fate of radionuclides released from Fukushima to the ocean. An emphasis will be given on the sources of cesium, its transport in waters, and fluxes associated with sinking particles and accumulation in sediments.

  7. Investigating Ocean Pollution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    LeBeau, Sue

    1998-01-01

    Describes a fifth-grade class project to investigate two major forms of ocean pollution: plastics and oil. Students work in groups and read, discuss, speculate, offer opinions, and participate in activities such as keeping a plastics journal, testing the biodegradability of plastics, and simulating oil spills. Activities culminate in…

  8. An Ocean of Possibilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Doug

    2010-01-01

    For more than one hundred years teachers have paddled beside the great ocean of mathematical adventure. Between them they have taught millions of young people. A few have dived in and kept swimming, some have lingered on the shore playing in pools, but most have dipped their toes in and run like heck in the other direction never to return. There…

  9. An Ocean of Possibilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Doug

    2010-01-01

    For more than one hundred years teachers have paddled beside the great ocean of mathematical adventure. Between them they have taught millions of young people. A few have dived in and kept swimming, some have lingered on the shore playing in pools, but most have dipped their toes in and run like heck in the other direction never to return. There…

  10. Enhanced Ocean Scatterometry

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fois, F.

    2015-01-01

    An ocean scatterometer is an active microwave instrument which is designed to determine the normalized radar cross section (NRCS) of the sea surface. Scatterometers transmit pulses towards the sea surface and measure the reflected energy. The primary objective of spaceborne scatterometers is to meas

  11. CFOSAT: A new Chinese-French satellite for joint observations of ocean wind vector and directional spectra of ocean waves

    OpenAIRE

    Hauser, Danièle; Tison, Céline; Amiot, Thierry; Delaye, Lauriane; Mouche, Alexis; Guitton, Gilles; Aouf, Lotfi; Castillan, Patrick

    2016-01-01

    International audience; CFOSAT (the China France Oceanography Satellite) is a joint mission from the Chinese and French Space Agencies, devoted to the observation ocean surface wind and waves so as to improve wind and wave forecast for marine meteorology, ocean dynamics modeling and prediction, climate variability knowledge, fundamental knowledge of surface processes. Currently under Phase D (manufacturing phase), the launch is now planned for mid-2018 the later. The CFOSAT will carry two pay...

  12. Effects of Ocean Ecosystem on Marine Aerosol-Cloud Interaction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicholas Meskhidze

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Using satellite data for the surface ocean, aerosol optical depth (AOD, and cloud microphysical parameters, we show that statistically significant positive correlations exist between ocean ecosystem productivity, the abundance of submicron aerosols, and cloud microphysical properties over different parts of the remote oceans. The correlation coefficient for remotely sensed surface chlorophyll a concentration ([Chl-a] and liquid cloud effective radii over productive areas of the oceans varies between −0.2 and −0.6. Special attention is given to identifying (and addressing problems from correlation analysis used in the previous studies that can lead to erroneous conclusions. A new approach (using the difference between retrieved AOD and predicted sea salt aerosol optical depth, AODdiff is developed to explore causal links between ocean physical and biological systems and the abundance of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN in the remote marine atmosphere. We have found that over multiple time periods, 550 nm AODdiff (sensitive to accumulation mode aerosol, which is the prime contributor to CCN correlates well with [Chl-a] over the productive waters of the Southern Ocean. Since [Chl-a] can be used as a proxy of ocean biological productivity, our analysis demonstrates the role of ocean ecology in contributing CCN, thus shaping the microphysical properties of low-level marine clouds.

  13. ocean_city_md.grd

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NGDC builds and distributes high-resolution, coastal digital elevation models (DEMs) that integrate ocean bathymetry and land topography to support NOAA's mission to...

  14. Ocean energy conversion - A reality

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Sarkar, A.

    This chapter presents an overview of ocean energy conversion in respect of its significance as the renewable energy resources. It deals with the thermodynamic principles relating to ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC). Besides, it provides an in...

  15. World Ocean Atlas 2005, Temperature

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — World Ocean Atlas 2005 (WOA05) is a set of objectively analyzed (1° grid) climatological fields of in situ temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen, Apparent Oxygen...

  16. World Ocean Atlas 2005, Temperature

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — World Ocean Atlas 2005 (WOA05) is a set of objectively analyzed (1° grid) climatological fields of in situ temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen, Apparent Oxygen...

  17. Zoogeography of the Indian Ocean

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Rao, T.S.S.

    The distribution pattern of zooplankton in the Indian Ocean is briefly reviewed on a within and between ocean patterns and is limited to species within a quite restricted sort of groups namely, Copepoda, Chaetognatha, Pteropoda and Euphausiacea...

  18. World Ocean Atlas 2005, Salinity

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — World Ocean Atlas 2005 (WOA05) is a set of objectively analyzed (1° grid) climatological fields of in situ temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen, Apparent Oxygen...

  19. World Ocean Atlas 2005, Salinity

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — World Ocean Atlas 2005 (WOA05) is a set of objectively analyzed (1° grid) climatological fields of in situ temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen, Apparent Oxygen...

  20. Harnessing Ocean Energy by Tidal Current Technologies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nasir Mehmood

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The world is heavily dependent on fossil fuels since most of its energy requirements are fulfilled by conventional methods of burning these fuels. The energy demand is increasing by day with growing population. The energy production by fossil fuels is devastating the environment and survival of life on globe is endangered. The renewal energy technologies are vital to ensure future energy sustenance and environmental issues. Ocean is a vast resource of renewable energy. The technology today makes it possible to extract energy from tides. The growing interest in exploring tidal current technologies has compelling reasons such as security and diversity of supply, intermittent but predictable and limited social and environmental impacts. The purpose of this study is to present a comprehensive review of tidal current technologies to harness ocean energy. The ocean energy resources are presented. The author discusses tidal energy technologies. The tidal current turbines are discussed in detail. The author reviews today’s popular tidal current technologies. The present status of ocean energy development is also reported.