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Sample records for hybrid models predict

  1. Model predictive control of hybrid systems : stability and robustness

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lazar, M.

    2006-01-01

    This thesis considers the stabilization and the robust stabilization of certain classes of hybrid systems using model predictive control. Hybrid systems represent a broad class of dynamical systems in which discrete behavior (usually described by a finite state machine) and continuous behavior

  2. Model Predictive Control of the Hybrid Ventilation for Livestock

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wu, Zhuang; Stoustrup, Jakob; Trangbæk, Klaus

    2006-01-01

    In this paper, design and simulation results of Model Predictive Control (MPC) strategy for livestock hybrid ventilation systems and associated indoor climate through variable valve openings and exhaust fans are presented. The design is based on thermal comfort parameters for poultry in barns...

  3. Active diagnosis of hybrid systems - A model predictive approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tabatabaeipour, Seyed Mojtaba; Ravn, Anders P.; Izadi-Zamanabadi, Roozbeh

    2009-01-01

    A method for active diagnosis of hybrid systems is proposed. The main idea is to predict the future output of both normal and faulty model of the system; then at each time step an optimization problem is solved with the objective of maximizing the difference between the predicted normal and fault...... can be used as a test signal for sanity check at the commissioning or for detection of faults hidden by regulatory actions of the controller. The method is tested on the two tank benchmark example. ©2009 IEEE....

  4. Model Predictive Control for Connected Hybrid Electric Vehicles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kaijiang Yu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a new model predictive control system for connected hybrid electric vehicles to improve fuel economy. The new features of this study are as follows. First, the battery charge and discharge profile and the driving velocity profile are simultaneously optimized. One is energy management for HEV for Pbatt; the other is for the energy consumption minimizing problem of acc control of two vehicles. Second, a system for connected hybrid electric vehicles has been developed considering varying drag coefficients and the road gradients. Third, the fuel model of a typical hybrid electric vehicle is developed using the maps of the engine efficiency characteristics. Fourth, simulations and analysis (under different parameters, i.e., road conditions, vehicle state of charge, etc. are conducted to verify the effectiveness of the method to achieve higher fuel efficiency. The model predictive control problem is solved using numerical computation method: continuation and generalized minimum residual method. Computer simulation results reveal improvements in fuel economy using the proposed control method.

  5. Hybrid CFD/CAA Modeling for Liftoff Acoustic Predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strutzenberg, Louise L.; Liever, Peter A.

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents development efforts at the NASA Marshall Space flight Center to establish a hybrid Computational Fluid Dynamics and Computational Aero-Acoustics (CFD/CAA) simulation system for launch vehicle liftoff acoustics environment analysis. Acoustic prediction engineering tools based on empirical jet acoustic strength and directivity models or scaled historical measurements are of limited value in efforts to proactively design and optimize launch vehicles and launch facility configurations for liftoff acoustics. CFD based modeling approaches are now able to capture the important details of vehicle specific plume flow environment, identifY the noise generation sources, and allow assessment of the influence of launch pad geometric details and sound mitigation measures such as water injection. However, CFD methodologies are numerically too dissipative to accurately capture the propagation of the acoustic waves in the large CFD models. The hybrid CFD/CAA approach combines the high-fidelity CFD analysis capable of identifYing the acoustic sources with a fast and efficient Boundary Element Method (BEM) that accurately propagates the acoustic field from the source locations. The BEM approach was chosen for its ability to properly account for reflections and scattering of acoustic waves from launch pad structures. The paper will present an overview of the technology components of the CFD/CAA framework and discuss plans for demonstration and validation against test data.

  6. Numerical weather prediction (NWP) and hybrid ARMA/ANN model to predict global radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Voyant, Cyril; Muselli, Marc; Paoli, Christophe; Nivet, Marie-Laure

    2012-01-01

    We propose in this paper an original technique to predict global radiation using a hybrid ARMA/ANN model and data issued from a numerical weather prediction model (NWP). We particularly look at the multi-layer perceptron (MLP). After optimizing our architecture with NWP and endogenous data previously made stationary and using an innovative pre-input layer selection method, we combined it to an ARMA model from a rule based on the analysis of hourly data series. This model has been used to forecast the hourly global radiation for five places in Mediterranean area. Our technique outperforms classical models for all the places. The nRMSE for our hybrid model MLP/ARMA is 14.9% compared to 26.2% for the naïve persistence predictor. Note that in the standalone ANN case the nRMSE is 18.4%. Finally, in order to discuss the reliability of the forecaster outputs, a complementary study concerning the confidence interval of each prediction is proposed. -- Highlights: ► Time series forecasting with hybrid method based on the use of ALADIN numerical weather model, ANN and ARMA. ► Innovative pre-input layer selection method. ► Combination of optimized MLP and ARMA model obtained from a rule based on the analysis of hourly data series. ► Stationarity process (method and control) for the global radiation time series.

  7. Hybrid ATDL-gamma distribution model for predicting area source acid gas concentrations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jakeman, A J; Taylor, J A

    1985-01-01

    An air quality model is developed to predict the distribution of concentrations of acid gas in an urban airshed. The model is hybrid in character, combining reliable features of a deterministic ATDL-based model with statistical distributional approaches. The gamma distribution was identified from a range of distributional models as the best model. The paper shows that the assumptions of a previous hybrid model may be relaxed and presents a methodology for characterizing the uncertainty associated with model predictions. Results are demonstrated for the 98-percentile predictions of 24-h average data over annual periods at six monitoring sites. This percentile relates to the World Health Organization goal for acid gas concentrations.

  8. Hybrid Corporate Performance Prediction Model Considering Technical Capability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joonhyuck Lee

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Many studies have tried to predict corporate performance and stock prices to enhance investment profitability using qualitative approaches such as the Delphi method. However, developments in data processing technology and machine-learning algorithms have resulted in efforts to develop quantitative prediction models in various managerial subject areas. We propose a quantitative corporate performance prediction model that applies the support vector regression (SVR algorithm to solve the problem of the overfitting of training data and can be applied to regression problems. The proposed model optimizes the SVR training parameters based on the training data, using the genetic algorithm to achieve sustainable predictability in changeable markets and managerial environments. Technology-intensive companies represent an increasing share of the total economy. The performance and stock prices of these companies are affected by their financial standing and their technological capabilities. Therefore, we apply both financial indicators and technical indicators to establish the proposed prediction model. Here, we use time series data, including financial, patent, and corporate performance information of 44 electronic and IT companies. Then, we predict the performance of these companies as an empirical verification of the prediction performance of the proposed model.

  9. Finite-Control-Set Model Predictive Control (FCS-MPC) for Islanded Hybrid Microgrids

    OpenAIRE

    Yi, Zhehan; Babqi, Abdulrahman J.; Wang, Yishen; Shi, Di; Etemadi, Amir H.; Wang, Zhiwei; Huang, Bibin

    2018-01-01

    Microgrids consisting of multiple distributed energy resources (DERs) provide a promising solution to integrate renewable energies, e.g., solar photovoltaic (PV) systems. Hybrid AC/DC microgrids leverage the merits of both AC and DC power systems. In this paper, a control strategy for islanded multi-bus hybrid microgrids is proposed based on the Finite-Control-Set Model Predictive Control (FCS-MPC) technologies. The control loops are expedited by predicting the future states and determining t...

  10. Model-on-Demand Predictive Control for Nonlinear Hybrid Systems With Application to Adaptive Behavioral Interventions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nandola, Naresh N.; Rivera, Daniel E.

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents a data-centric modeling and predictive control approach for nonlinear hybrid systems. System identification of hybrid systems represents a challenging problem because model parameters depend on the mode or operating point of the system. The proposed algorithm applies Model-on-Demand (MoD) estimation to generate a local linear approximation of the nonlinear hybrid system at each time step, using a small subset of data selected by an adaptive bandwidth selector. The appeal of the MoD approach lies in the fact that model parameters are estimated based on a current operating point; hence estimation of locations or modes governed by autonomous discrete events is achieved automatically. The local MoD model is then converted into a mixed logical dynamical (MLD) system representation which can be used directly in a model predictive control (MPC) law for hybrid systems using multiple-degree-of-freedom tuning. The effectiveness of the proposed MoD predictive control algorithm for nonlinear hybrid systems is demonstrated on a hypothetical adaptive behavioral intervention problem inspired by Fast Track, a real-life preventive intervention for improving parental function and reducing conduct disorder in at-risk children. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed algorithm can be useful for adaptive intervention problems exhibiting both nonlinear and hybrid character. PMID:21874087

  11. Physical and JIT Model Based Hybrid Modeling Approach for Building Thermal Load Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iino, Yutaka; Murai, Masahiko; Murayama, Dai; Motoyama, Ichiro

    Energy conservation in building fields is one of the key issues in environmental point of view as well as that of industrial, transportation and residential fields. The half of the total energy consumption in a building is occupied by HVAC (Heating, Ventilating and Air Conditioning) systems. In order to realize energy conservation of HVAC system, a thermal load prediction model for building is required. This paper propose a hybrid modeling approach with physical and Just-in-Time (JIT) model for building thermal load prediction. The proposed method has features and benefits such as, (1) it is applicable to the case in which past operation data for load prediction model learning is poor, (2) it has a self checking function, which always supervises if the data driven load prediction and the physical based one are consistent or not, so it can find if something is wrong in load prediction procedure, (3) it has ability to adjust load prediction in real-time against sudden change of model parameters and environmental conditions. The proposed method is evaluated with real operation data of an existing building, and the improvement of load prediction performance is illustrated.

  12. Prediction of CO concentrations based on a hybrid Partial Least Square and Support Vector Machine model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeganeh, B.; Motlagh, M. Shafie Pour; Rashidi, Y.; Kamalan, H.

    2012-08-01

    Due to the health impacts caused by exposures to air pollutants in urban areas, monitoring and forecasting of air quality parameters have become popular as an important topic in atmospheric and environmental research today. The knowledge on the dynamics and complexity of air pollutants behavior has made artificial intelligence models as a useful tool for a more accurate pollutant concentration prediction. This paper focuses on an innovative method of daily air pollution prediction using combination of Support Vector Machine (SVM) as predictor and Partial Least Square (PLS) as a data selection tool based on the measured values of CO concentrations. The CO concentrations of Rey monitoring station in the south of Tehran, from Jan. 2007 to Feb. 2011, have been used to test the effectiveness of this method. The hourly CO concentrations have been predicted using the SVM and the hybrid PLS-SVM models. Similarly, daily CO concentrations have been predicted based on the aforementioned four years measured data. Results demonstrated that both models have good prediction ability; however the hybrid PLS-SVM has better accuracy. In the analysis presented in this paper, statistic estimators including relative mean errors, root mean squared errors and the mean absolute relative error have been employed to compare performances of the models. It has been concluded that the errors decrease after size reduction and coefficients of determination increase from 56 to 81% for SVM model to 65-85% for hybrid PLS-SVM model respectively. Also it was found that the hybrid PLS-SVM model required lower computational time than SVM model as expected, hence supporting the more accurate and faster prediction ability of hybrid PLS-SVM model.

  13. Ultra-Short-Term Wind Power Prediction Using a Hybrid Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammed, E.; Wang, S.; Yu, J.

    2017-05-01

    This paper aims to develop and apply a hybrid model of two data analytical methods, multiple linear regressions and least square (MLR&LS), for ultra-short-term wind power prediction (WPP), for example taking, Northeast China electricity demand. The data was obtained from the historical records of wind power from an offshore region, and from a wind farm of the wind power plant in the areas. The WPP achieved in two stages: first, the ratios of wind power were forecasted using the proposed hybrid method, and then the transformation of these ratios of wind power to obtain forecasted values. The hybrid model combines the persistence methods, MLR and LS. The proposed method included two prediction types, multi-point prediction and single-point prediction. WPP is tested by applying different models such as autoregressive moving average (ARMA), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and artificial neural network (ANN). By comparing results of the above models, the validity of the proposed hybrid model is confirmed in terms of error and correlation coefficient. Comparison of results confirmed that the proposed method works effectively. Additional, forecasting errors were also computed and compared, to improve understanding of how to depict highly variable WPP and the correlations between actual and predicted wind power.

  14. Predicting Jakarta composite index using hybrid of fuzzy time series and support vector regression models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Febrian Umbara, Rian; Tarwidi, Dede; Budi Setiawan, Erwin

    2018-03-01

    The paper discusses the prediction of Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) in Indonesia Stock Exchange. The study is based on JCI historical data for 1286 days to predict the value of JCI one day ahead. This paper proposes predictions done in two stages., The first stage using Fuzzy Time Series (FTS) to predict values of ten technical indicators, and the second stage using Support Vector Regression (SVR) to predict the value of JCI one day ahead, resulting in a hybrid prediction model FTS-SVR. The performance of this combined prediction model is compared with the performance of the single stage prediction model using SVR only. Ten technical indicators are used as input for each model.

  15. Prediction of Chl-a concentrations in an eutrophic lake using ANN models with hybrid inputs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aksoy, A.; Yuzugullu, O.

    2017-12-01

    Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentrations in water bodies exhibit both spatial and temporal variations. As a result, frequent sampling is required with higher number of samples. This motivates the use of remote sensing as a monitoring tool. Yet, prediction performances of models that convert radiance values into Chl-a concentrations can be poor in shallow lakes. In this study, Chl-a concentrations in Lake Eymir, a shallow eutrophic lake in Ankara (Turkey), are determined using artificial neural network (ANN) models that use hybrid inputs composed of water quality and meteorological data as well as remotely sensed radiance values to improve prediction performance. Following a screening based on multi-collinearity and principal component analysis (PCA), dissolved-oxygen concentration (DO), pH, turbidity, and humidity were selected among several parameters as the constituents of the hybrid input dataset. Radiance values were obtained from QuickBird-2 satellite. Conversion of the hybrid input into Chl-a concentrations were studied for two different periods in the lake. ANN models were successful in predicting Chl-a concentrations. Yet, prediction performance declined for low Chl-a concentrations in the lake. In general, models with hybrid inputs were superior over the ones that solely used remotely sensed data.

  16. A hybrid model for dissolved oxygen prediction in aquaculture based on multi-scale features

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chen Li

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available To increase prediction accuracy of dissolved oxygen (DO in aquaculture, a hybrid model based on multi-scale features using ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD is proposed. Firstly, original DO datasets are decomposed by EEMD and we get several components. Secondly, these components are used to reconstruct four terms including high frequency term, intermediate frequency term, low frequency term and trend term. Thirdly, according to the characteristics of high and intermediate frequency terms, which fluctuate violently, the least squares support vector machine (LSSVR is used to predict the two terms. The fluctuation of low frequency term is gentle and periodic, so it can be modeled by BP neural network with an optimal mind evolutionary computation (MEC-BP. Then, the trend term is predicted using grey model (GM because it is nearly linear. Finally, the prediction values of DO datasets are calculated by the sum of the forecasting values of all terms. The experimental results demonstrate that our hybrid model outperforms EEMD-ELM (extreme learning machine based on EEMD, EEMD-BP and MEC-BP models based on the mean absolute error (MAE, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE, mean square error (MSE and root mean square error (RMSE. Our hybrid model is proven to be an effective approach to predict aquaculture DO.

  17. Predictive simulation of bidirectional Glenn shunt using a hybrid blood vessel model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Hao; Leow, Wee Kheng; Chiu, Ing-Sh

    2009-01-01

    This paper proposes a method for performing predictive simulation of cardiac surgery. It applies a hybrid approach to model the deformation of blood vessels. The hybrid blood vessel model consists of a reference Cosserat rod and a surface mesh. The reference Cosserat rod models the blood vessel's global bending, stretching, twisting and shearing in a physically correct manner, and the surface mesh models the surface details of the blood vessel. In this way, the deformation of blood vessels can be computed efficiently and accurately. Our predictive simulation system can produce complex surgical results given a small amount of user inputs. It allows the surgeon to easily explore various surgical options and evaluate them. Tests of the system using bidirectional Glenn shunt (BDG) as an application example show that the results produc by the system are similar to real surgical results.

  18. Driving-behavior-aware stochastic model predictive control for plug-in hybrid electric buses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Liang; You, Sixiong; Yang, Chao; Yan, Bingjie; Song, Jian; Chen, Zheng

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • The novel approximated global optimal energy management strategy has been proposed for hybrid powertrains. • Eight typical driving behaviors have been classified with K-means to deal with the multiplicative traffic conditions. • The stochastic driver models of different driving behaviors were established based on the Markov chains. • ECMS was used to modify the SMPC-based energy management strategy to improve its fuel economy. • The approximated global optimal energy management strategy for plug-in hybrid electric buses has been verified and analyzed. - Abstract: Driving cycles of a city bus is statistically characterized by some repetitive features, which makes the predictive energy management strategy very desirable to obtain approximate optimal fuel economy of a plug-in hybrid electric bus. But dealing with the complicated traffic conditions and finding an approximated global optimal strategy which is applicable to the plug-in hybrid electric bus still remains a challenging technique. To solve this problem, a novel driving-behavior-aware modified stochastic model predictive control method is proposed for the plug-in hybrid electric bus. Firstly, the K-means is employed to classify driving behaviors, and the driver models based on Markov chains is obtained under different kinds of driving behaviors. While the obtained driver behaviors are regarded as stochastic disturbance inputs, the local minimum fuel consumption might be obtained with a traditional stochastic model predictive control at each step, taking tracking the reference battery state of charge trajectory into consideration in the finite predictive horizons. However, this technique is still accompanied by some working points with reduced/worsened fuel economy. Thus, the stochastic model predictive control is modified with the equivalent consumption minimization strategy to eliminate these undesirable working points. The results in real-world city bus routines show that the

  19. A hybrid model to predict the entrainment and subsurface transport of oil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spaulding, M.L.; Odulo, A.; Kolluru, V.S.

    1992-01-01

    The entrainment of surface oil into the water column and its subsequent subsurface transport and dispersion are predicted by a hybrid analytic-numerical solution to the advective diffusion equation. Total oil or selected hydrocarbon component concentrations in the water column are predicted. Assuming that the principal mechanism for entrainment is due to breaking waves, the oil entrainment rate is specified using the empirically based algorithm of Delvigne and Sweeney (1988). The subsurface transport model explicitly accounts for buoyant forces on dispersed oil by droplet size. Application of the model to an analytic test case and several hypothetical scenarios illustrates the model's utility. 35 refs., 8 figs., 2 tabs

  20. Deep Belief Network Based Hybrid Model for Building Energy Consumption Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chengdong Li

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available To enhance the prediction performance for building energy consumption, this paper presents a modified deep belief network (DBN based hybrid model. The proposed hybrid model combines the outputs from the DBN model with the energy-consuming pattern to yield the final prediction results. The energy-consuming pattern in this study represents the periodicity property of building energy consumption and can be extracted from the observed historical energy consumption data. The residual data generated by removing the energy-consuming pattern from the original data are utilized to train the modified DBN model. The training of the modified DBN includes two steps, the first one of which adopts the contrastive divergence (CD algorithm to optimize the hidden parameters in a pre-train way, while the second one determines the output weighting vector by the least squares method. The proposed hybrid model is applied to two kinds of building energy consumption data sets that have different energy-consuming patterns (daily-periodicity and weekly-periodicity. In order to examine the advantages of the proposed model, four popular artificial intelligence methods—the backward propagation neural network (BPNN, the generalized radial basis function neural network (GRBFNN, the extreme learning machine (ELM, and the support vector regressor (SVR are chosen as the comparative approaches. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed DBN based hybrid model has the best performance compared with the comparative techniques. Another thing to be mentioned is that all the predictors constructed by utilizing the energy-consuming patterns perform better than those designed only by the original data. This verifies the usefulness of the incorporation of the energy-consuming patterns. The proposed approach can also be extended and applied to some other similar prediction problems that have periodicity patterns, e.g., the traffic flow forecasting and the electricity consumption

  1. Swarm Intelligence-Based Hybrid Models for Short-Term Power Load Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianzhou Wang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Swarm intelligence (SI is widely and successfully applied in the engineering field to solve practical optimization problems because various hybrid models, which are based on the SI algorithm and statistical models, are developed to further improve the predictive abilities. In this paper, hybrid intelligent forecasting models based on the cuckoo search (CS as well as the singular spectrum analysis (SSA, time series, and machine learning methods are proposed to conduct short-term power load prediction. The forecasting performance of the proposed models is augmented by a rolling multistep strategy over the prediction horizon. The test results are representative of the out-performance of the SSA and CS in tuning the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA and support vector regression (SVR in improving load forecasting, which indicates that both the SSA-based data denoising and SI-based intelligent optimization strategy can effectively improve the model’s predictive performance. Additionally, the proposed CS-SSA-SARIMA and CS-SSA-SVR models provide very impressive forecasting results, demonstrating their strong robustness and universal forecasting capacities in terms of short-term power load prediction 24 hours in advance.

  2. Performance and robustness of hybrid model predictive control for controllable dampers in building models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Erik A.; Elhaddad, Wael M.; Wojtkiewicz, Steven F.

    2016-04-01

    A variety of strategies have been developed over the past few decades to determine controllable damping device forces to mitigate the response of structures and mechanical systems to natural hazards and other excitations. These "smart" damping devices produce forces through passive means but have properties that can be controlled in real time, based on sensor measurements of response across the structure, to dramatically reduce structural motion by exploiting more than the local "information" that is available to purely passive devices. A common strategy is to design optimal damping forces using active control approaches and then try to reproduce those forces with the smart damper. However, these design forces, for some structures and performance objectives, may achieve high performance by selectively adding energy, which cannot be replicated by a controllable damping device, causing the smart damper performance to fall far short of what an active system would provide. The authors have recently demonstrated that a model predictive control strategy using hybrid system models, which utilize both continuous and binary states (the latter to capture the switching behavior between dissipative and non-dissipative forces), can provide reductions in structural response on the order of 50% relative to the conventional clipped-optimal design strategy. This paper explores the robustness of this newly proposed control strategy through evaluating controllable damper performance when the structure model differs from the nominal one used to design the damping strategy. Results from the application to a two-degree-of-freedom structure model confirms the robustness of the proposed strategy.

  3. Hybrid Model Predictive Control as a LFC solution in Hydropower Plants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Donaisky Emerson

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available For Electric Power System safety and stable operation, planning and analysis by using simulation environments are necessary. An important point for frequency stability analysis is, on one hand, an adequate representation of Load-Frequency Control (LFC loops and, on the other hand, the design of advanced control strategies to deal with the power system dynamic complexity. Therefore, in this paper we propose to represent the group turbine/penstock, found in hydropower plants, in a Piecewise Affine (PWA modelling structure. Based on such modelling, we also propose the use of a Hybrid Model Predictive algorithm to be use as a control law in LFC loops. Among the advantages of this PWA representation is the use of this model in the controller algorithm, thereby improving the Load-Frequency Control performance. Simulation results, on a 200 MW hydropower plant compares the performance of predictive control strategy presented with the classical PID control strategy in an isolated condition.

  4. Predicting Freeway Work Zone Delays and Costs with a Hybrid Machine-Learning Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bo Du

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available A hybrid machine-learning model, integrating an artificial neural network (ANN and a support vector machine (SVM model, is developed to predict spatiotemporal delays, subject to road geometry, number of lane closures, and work zone duration in different periods of a day and in the days of a week. The model is very user friendly, allowing the least inputs from the users. With that the delays caused by a work zone on any location of a New Jersey freeway can be predicted. To this end, tremendous amounts of data from different sources were collected to establish the relationship between the model inputs and outputs. A comparative analysis was conducted, and results indicate that the proposed model outperforms others in terms of the least root mean square error (RMSE. The proposed hybrid model can be used to calculate contractor penalty in terms of cost overruns as well as incentive reward schedule in case of early work competition. Additionally, it can assist work zone planners in determining the best start and end times of a work zone for developing and evaluating traffic mitigation and management plans.

  5. Metabolic robustness in young roots underpins a predictive model of maize hybrid performance in the field.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Abreu E Lima, Francisco; Westhues, Matthias; Cuadros-Inostroza, Álvaro; Willmitzer, Lothar; Melchinger, Albrecht E; Nikoloski, Zoran

    2017-04-01

    Heterosis has been extensively exploited for yield gain in maize (Zea mays L.). Here we conducted a comparative metabolomics-based analysis of young roots from in vitro germinating seedlings and from leaves of field-grown plants in a panel of inbred lines from the Dent and Flint heterotic patterns as well as selected F 1 hybrids. We found that metabolite levels in hybrids were more robust than in inbred lines. Using state-of-the-art modeling techniques, the most robust metabolites from roots and leaves explained up to 37 and 44% of the variance in the biomass from plants grown in two distinct field trials. In addition, a correlation-based analysis highlighted the trade-off between defense-related metabolites and hybrid performance. Therefore, our findings demonstrated the potential of metabolic profiles from young maize roots grown under tightly controlled conditions to predict hybrid performance in multiple field trials, thus bridging the greenhouse-field gap. © 2017 The Authors The Plant Journal © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  6. A Novel Model for Stock Price Prediction Using Hybrid Neural Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Senapati, Manas Ranjan; Das, Sumanjit; Mishra, Sarojananda

    2018-06-01

    The foremost challenge for investors is to select stock price by analyzing financial data which is a menial task as of distort associated and massive pattern. Thereby, selecting stock poses one of the greatest difficulties for investors. Nowadays, prediction of financial market like stock market, exchange rate and share value are very challenging field of research. The prediction and scrutinization of stock price is also a potential area of research due to its vital significance in decision making by financial investors. This paper presents an intelligent and an optimal model for prophecy of stock market price using hybridization of Adaline Neural Network (ANN) and modified Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO). The connoted model hybrid of Adaline and PSO uses fluctuations of stock market as a factor and employs PSO to optimize and update weights of Adaline representation to depict open price of Bombay stock exchange. The prediction performance of the proposed model is compared with different representations like interval measurements, CMS-PSO and Bayesian-ANN. The result indicates that proposed scheme has an edge over all the juxtaposed schemes in terms of mean absolute percentage error.

  7. Inhibition, Updating Working Memory, and Shifting Predict Reading Disability Symptoms in a Hybrid Model: Project KIDS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daucourt, Mia C; Schatschneider, Christopher; Connor, Carol M; Al Otaiba, Stephanie; Hart, Sara A

    2018-01-01

    Recent achievement research suggests that executive function (EF), a set of regulatory processes that control both thought and action necessary for goal-directed behavior, is related to typical and atypical reading performance. This project examines the relation of EF, as measured by its components, Inhibition, Updating Working Memory, and Shifting, with a hybrid model of reading disability (RD). Our sample included 420 children who participated in a broader intervention project when they were in KG-third grade (age M = 6.63 years, SD = 1.04 years, range = 4.79-10.40 years). At the time their EF was assessed, using a parent-report Behavior Rating Inventory of Executive Function (BRIEF), they had a mean age of 13.21 years ( SD = 1.54 years; range = 10.47-16.63 years). The hybrid model of RD was operationalized as a composite consisting of four symptoms, and set so that any child could have any one, any two, any three, any four, or none of the symptoms included in the hybrid model. The four symptoms include low word reading achievement, unexpected low word reading achievement, poorer reading comprehension compared to listening comprehension, and dual-discrepancy response-to-intervention, requiring both low achievement and low growth in word reading. The results of our multilevel ordinal logistic regression analyses showed a significant relation between all three components of EF (Inhibition, Updating Working Memory, and Shifting) and the hybrid model of RD, and that the strength of EF's predictive power for RD classification was the highest when RD was modeled as having at least one or more symptoms. Importantly, the chances of being classified as having RD increased as EF performance worsened and decreased as EF performance improved. The question of whether any one EF component would emerge as a superior predictor was also examined and results showed that Inhibition, Updating Working Memory, and Shifting were equally valuable as predictors of the hybrid model of RD

  8. Inhibition, Updating Working Memory, and Shifting Predict Reading Disability Symptoms in a Hybrid Model: Project KIDS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mia C. Daucourt

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Recent achievement research suggests that executive function (EF, a set of regulatory processes that control both thought and action necessary for goal-directed behavior, is related to typical and atypical reading performance. This project examines the relation of EF, as measured by its components, Inhibition, Updating Working Memory, and Shifting, with a hybrid model of reading disability (RD. Our sample included 420 children who participated in a broader intervention project when they were in KG-third grade (age M = 6.63 years, SD = 1.04 years, range = 4.79–10.40 years. At the time their EF was assessed, using a parent-report Behavior Rating Inventory of Executive Function (BRIEF, they had a mean age of 13.21 years (SD = 1.54 years; range = 10.47–16.63 years. The hybrid model of RD was operationalized as a composite consisting of four symptoms, and set so that any child could have any one, any two, any three, any four, or none of the symptoms included in the hybrid model. The four symptoms include low word reading achievement, unexpected low word reading achievement, poorer reading comprehension compared to listening comprehension, and dual-discrepancy response-to-intervention, requiring both low achievement and low growth in word reading. The results of our multilevel ordinal logistic regression analyses showed a significant relation between all three components of EF (Inhibition, Updating Working Memory, and Shifting and the hybrid model of RD, and that the strength of EF’s predictive power for RD classification was the highest when RD was modeled as having at least one or more symptoms. Importantly, the chances of being classified as having RD increased as EF performance worsened and decreased as EF performance improved. The question of whether any one EF component would emerge as a superior predictor was also examined and results showed that Inhibition, Updating Working Memory, and Shifting were equally valuable as predictors of the

  9. Prediction of Coal Face Gas Concentration by Multi-Scale Selective Ensemble Hybrid Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    WU Xiang

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available A selective ensemble hybrid modeling prediction method based on wavelet transformation is proposed to improve the fitting and generalization capability of the existing prediction models of the coal face gas concentration, which has a strong stochastic volatility. Mallat algorithm was employed for the multi-scale decomposition and single-scale reconstruction of the gas concentration time series. Then, it predicted every subsequence by sparsely weighted multi unstable ELM(extreme learning machine predictor within method SERELM(sparse ensemble regressors of ELM. At last, it superimposed the predicted values of these models to obtain the predicted values of the original sequence. The proposed method takes advantage of characteristics of multi scale analysis of wavelet transformation, accuracy and fast characteristics of ELM prediction and the generalization ability of L1 regularized selective ensemble learning method. The results show that the forecast accuracy has large increase by using the proposed method. The average relative error is 0.65%, the maximum relative error is 4.16% and the probability of relative error less than 1% reaches 0.785.

  10. Model predictive control of an air suspension system with damping multi-mode switching damper based on hybrid model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Xiaoqiang; Yuan, Chaochun; Cai, Yingfeng; Wang, Shaohua; Chen, Long

    2017-09-01

    This paper presents the hybrid modeling and the model predictive control of an air suspension system with damping multi-mode switching damper. Unlike traditional damper with continuously adjustable damping, in this study, a new damper with four discrete damping modes is applied to vehicle semi-active air suspension. The new damper can achieve different damping modes by just controlling the on-off statuses of two solenoid valves, which makes its damping adjustment more efficient and more reliable. However, since the damping mode switching induces different modes of operation, the air suspension system with the new damper poses challenging hybrid control problem. To model both the continuous/discrete dynamics and the switching between different damping modes, the framework of mixed logical dynamical (MLD) systems is used to establish the system hybrid model. Based on the resulting hybrid dynamical model, the system control problem is recast as a model predictive control (MPC) problem, which allows us to optimize the switching sequences of the damping modes by taking into account the suspension performance requirements. Numerical simulations results demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed control method finally.

  11. Number of Clusters and the Quality of Hybrid Predictive Models in Analytical CRM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Łapczyński Mariusz

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Making more accurate marketing decisions by managers requires building effective predictive models. Typically, these models specify the probability of customer belonging to a particular category, group or segment. The analytical CRM categories refer to customers interested in starting cooperation with the company (acquisition models, customers who purchase additional products (cross- and up-sell models or customers intending to resign from the cooperation (churn models. During building predictive models researchers use analytical tools from various disciplines with an emphasis on their best performance. This article attempts to build a hybrid predictive model combining decision trees (C&RT algorithm and cluster analysis (k-means. During experiments five different cluster validity indices and eight datasets were used. The performance of models was evaluated by using popular measures such as: accuracy, precision, recall, G-mean, F-measure and lift in the first and in the second decile. The authors tried to find a connection between the number of clusters and models' quality.

  12. Hybrid model predictive control applied to switching control of burner load for a compact marine boiler design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Solberg, Brian; Andersen, Palle; Maciejowski, Jan

    2008-01-01

    This paper discusses the application of hybrid model predictive control to control switching between different burner modes in a novel compact marine boiler design. A further purpose of the present work is to point out problems with finite horizon model predictive control applied to systems for w...

  13. Prediction of hot spots in protein interfaces using a random forest model with hybrid features.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Lin; Liu, Zhi-Ping; Zhang, Xiang-Sun; Chen, Luonan

    2012-03-01

    Prediction of hot spots in protein interfaces provides crucial information for the research on protein-protein interaction and drug design. Existing machine learning methods generally judge whether a given residue is likely to be a hot spot by extracting features only from the target residue. However, hot spots usually form a small cluster of residues which are tightly packed together at the center of protein interface. With this in mind, we present a novel method to extract hybrid features which incorporate a wide range of information of the target residue and its spatially neighboring residues, i.e. the nearest contact residue in the other face (mirror-contact residue) and the nearest contact residue in the same face (intra-contact residue). We provide a novel random forest (RF) model to effectively integrate these hybrid features for predicting hot spots in protein interfaces. Our method can achieve accuracy (ACC) of 82.4% and Matthew's correlation coefficient (MCC) of 0.482 in Alanine Scanning Energetics Database, and ACC of 77.6% and MCC of 0.429 in Binding Interface Database. In a comparison study, performance of our RF model exceeds other existing methods, such as Robetta, FOLDEF, KFC, KFC2, MINERVA and HotPoint. Of our hybrid features, three physicochemical features of target residues (mass, polarizability and isoelectric point), the relative side-chain accessible surface area and the average depth index of mirror-contact residues are found to be the main discriminative features in hot spots prediction. We also confirm that hot spots tend to form large contact surface areas between two interacting proteins. Source data and code are available at: http://www.aporc.org/doc/wiki/HotSpot.

  14. Reservoir Inflow Prediction under GCM Scenario Downscaled by Wavelet Transform and Support Vector Machine Hybrid Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gusfan Halik

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change has significant impacts on changing precipitation patterns causing the variation of the reservoir inflow. Nowadays, Indonesian hydrologist performs reservoir inflow prediction according to the technical guideline of Pd-T-25-2004-A. This technical guideline does not consider the climate variables directly, resulting in significant deviation to the observation results. This research intends to predict the reservoir inflow using the statistical downscaling (SD of General Circulation Model (GCM outputs. The GCM outputs are obtained from the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research Reanalysis (NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis. A new proposed hybrid SD model named Wavelet Support Vector Machine (WSVM was utilized. It is a combination of the Multiscale Principal Components Analysis (MSPCA and nonlinear Support Vector Machine regression. The model was validated at Sutami Reservoir, Indonesia. Training and testing were carried out using data of 1991–2008 and 2008–2012, respectively. The results showed that MSPCA produced better extracting data than PCA. The WSVM generated better reservoir inflow prediction than the one of technical guideline. Moreover, this research also applied WSVM for future reservoir inflow prediction based on GCM ECHAM5 and scenario SRES A1B.

  15. H2RM: A Hybrid Rough Set Reasoning Model for Prediction and Management of Diabetes Mellitus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rahman Ali

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Diabetes is a chronic disease characterized by high blood glucose level that results either from a deficiency of insulin produced by the body, or the body’s resistance to the effects of insulin. Accurate and precise reasoning and prediction models greatly help physicians to improve diagnosis, prognosis and treatment procedures of different diseases. Though numerous models have been proposed to solve issues of diagnosis and management of diabetes, they have the following drawbacks: (1 restricted one type of diabetes; (2 lack understandability and explanatory power of the techniques and decision; (3 limited either to prediction purpose or management over the structured contents; and (4 lack competence for dimensionality and vagueness of patient’s data. To overcome these issues, this paper proposes a novel hybrid rough set reasoning model (H2RM that resolves problems of inaccurate prediction and management of type-1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM and type-2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM. For verification of the proposed model, experimental data from fifty patients, acquired from a local hospital in semi-structured format, is used. First, the data is transformed into structured format and then used for mining prediction rules. Rough set theory (RST based techniques and algorithms are used to mine the prediction rules. During the online execution phase of the model, these rules are used to predict T1DM and T2DM for new patients. Furthermore, the proposed model assists physicians to manage diabetes using knowledge extracted from online diabetes guidelines. Correlation-based trend analysis techniques are used to manage diabetic observations. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model outperforms the existing methods with 95.9% average and balanced accuracies.

  16. H2RM: A Hybrid Rough Set Reasoning Model for Prediction and Management of Diabetes Mellitus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali, Rahman; Hussain, Jamil; Siddiqi, Muhammad Hameed; Hussain, Maqbool; Lee, Sungyoung

    2015-07-03

    Diabetes is a chronic disease characterized by high blood glucose level that results either from a deficiency of insulin produced by the body, or the body's resistance to the effects of insulin. Accurate and precise reasoning and prediction models greatly help physicians to improve diagnosis, prognosis and treatment procedures of different diseases. Though numerous models have been proposed to solve issues of diagnosis and management of diabetes, they have the following drawbacks: (1) restricted one type of diabetes; (2) lack understandability and explanatory power of the techniques and decision; (3) limited either to prediction purpose or management over the structured contents; and (4) lack competence for dimensionality and vagueness of patient's data. To overcome these issues, this paper proposes a novel hybrid rough set reasoning model (H2RM) that resolves problems of inaccurate prediction and management of type-1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) and type-2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). For verification of the proposed model, experimental data from fifty patients, acquired from a local hospital in semi-structured format, is used. First, the data is transformed into structured format and then used for mining prediction rules. Rough set theory (RST) based techniques and algorithms are used to mine the prediction rules. During the online execution phase of the model, these rules are used to predict T1DM and T2DM for new patients. Furthermore, the proposed model assists physicians to manage diabetes using knowledge extracted from online diabetes guidelines. Correlation-based trend analysis techniques are used to manage diabetic observations. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model outperforms the existing methods with 95.9% average and balanced accuracies.

  17. A hybrid convection scheme for use in non-hydrostatic numerical weather prediction models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Volker Kuell

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available The correct representation of convection in numerical weather prediction (NWP models is essential for quantitative precipitation forecasts. Due to its small horizontal scale convection usually has to be parameterized, e.g. by mass flux convection schemes. Classical schemes originally developed for use in coarse grid NWP models assume zero net convective mass flux, because the whole circulation of a convective cell is confined to the local grid column and all convective mass fluxes cancel out. However, in contemporary NWP models with grid sizes of a few kilometers this assumption becomes questionable, because here convection is partially resolved on the grid. To overcome this conceptual problem we propose a hybrid mass flux convection scheme (HYMACS in which only the convective updrafts and downdrafts are parameterized. The generation of the larger scale environmental subsidence, which may cover several grid columns, is transferred to the grid scale equations. This means that the convection scheme now has to generate a net convective mass flux exerting a direct dynamical forcing to the grid scale model via pressure gradient forces. The hybrid convection scheme implemented into the COSMO model of Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD is tested in an idealized simulation of a sea breeze circulation initiating convection in a realistic manner. The results are compared with analogous simulations with the classical Tiedtke and Kain-Fritsch convection schemes.

  18. A Model Predictive Control Approach for Fuel Economy Improvement of a Series Hydraulic Hybrid Vehicle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tri-Vien Vu

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available This study applied a model predictive control (MPC framework to solve the cruising control problem of a series hydraulic hybrid vehicle (SHHV. The controller not only regulates vehicle velocity, but also engine torque, engine speed, and accumulator pressure to their corresponding reference values. At each time step, a quadratic programming problem is solved within a predictive horizon to obtain the optimal control inputs. The objective is to minimize the output error. This approach ensures that the components operate at high efficiency thereby improving the total efficiency of the system. The proposed SHHV control system was evaluated under urban and highway driving conditions. By handling constraints and input-output interactions, the MPC-based control system ensures that the system operates safely and efficiently. The fuel economy of the proposed control scheme shows a noticeable improvement in comparison with the PID-based system, in which three Proportional-Integral-Derivative (PID controllers are used for cruising control.

  19. Bridge Deterioration Prediction Model Based On Hybrid Markov-System Dynamic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Widodo Soetjipto Jojok

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Instantaneous bridge failure tends to increase in Indonesia. To mitigate this condition, Indonesia’s Bridge Management System (I-BMS has been applied to continuously monitor the condition of bridges. However, I-BMS only implements visual inspection for maintenance priority of the bridge structure component instead of bridge structure system. This paper proposes a new bridge failure prediction model based on hybrid Markov-System Dynamic (MSD. System dynamic is used to represent the correlation among bridge structure components while Markov chain is used to calculate temporal probability of the bridge failure. Around 235 data of bridges in Indonesia were collected from Directorate of Bridge the Ministry of Public Works and Housing for calculating transition probability of the model. To validate the model, a medium span concrete bridge was used as a case study. The result shows that the proposed model can accurately predict the bridge condition. Besides predicting the probability of the bridge failure, this model can also be used as an early warning system for bridge monitoring activity.

  20. A new solar power output prediction based on hybrid forecast engine and decomposition model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Weijiang; Dang, Hongshe; Simoes, Rolando

    2018-06-12

    Regarding to the growing trend of photovoltaic (PV) energy as a clean energy source in electrical networks and its uncertain nature, PV energy prediction has been proposed by researchers in recent decades. This problem is directly effects on operation in power network while, due to high volatility of this signal, an accurate prediction model is demanded. A new prediction model based on Hilbert Huang transform (HHT) and integration of improved empirical mode decomposition (IEMD) with feature selection and forecast engine is presented in this paper. The proposed approach is divided into three main sections. In the first section, the signal is decomposed by the proposed IEMD as an accurate decomposition tool. To increase the accuracy of the proposed method, a new interpolation method has been used instead of cubic spline curve (CSC) fitting in EMD. Then the obtained output is entered into the new feature selection procedure to choose the best candidate inputs. Finally, the signal is predicted by a hybrid forecast engine composed of support vector regression (SVR) based on an intelligent algorithm. The effectiveness of the proposed approach has been verified over a number of real-world engineering test cases in comparison with other well-known models. The obtained results prove the validity of the proposed method. Copyright © 2018 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Properties predictive modeling through the concept of a hybrid interphase existing between phases in contact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Portan, D. V.; Papanicolaou, G. C.

    2018-02-01

    From practical point of view, predictive modeling based on the physics of composite material behavior is wealth generating; by guiding material system selection and process choices, by cutting down on experimentation and associated costs; and by speeding up the time frame from the research stage to the market place. The presence of areas with different properties and the existence of an interphase between them have a pronounced influence on the behavior of a composite system. The Viscoelastic Hybrid Interphase Model (VHIM), considers the existence of a non-homogeneous viscoelastic and anisotropic interphase having properties depended on the degree of adhesion between the two phases in contact. The model applies for any physical/mechanical property (e.g. mechanical, thermal, electrical and/or biomechanical). Knowing the interphasial variation of a specific property one can predict the corresponding macroscopic behavior of the composite. Moreover, the model acts as an algorithm and a two-way approach can be used: (i) phases in contact may be chosen to get the desired properties of the final composite system or (ii) the initial phases in contact determine the final behavior of the composite system, that can be approximately predicted. The VHIM has been proven, amongst others, to be extremely useful in biomaterial designing for improved contact with human tissues.

  2. Lower hybrid current drive: an overview of simulation models, benchmarking with experiment, and predictions for future devices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bonoli, P.T.; Barbato, E.; Imbeaux, F.

    2003-01-01

    This paper reviews the status of lower hybrid current drive (LHCD) simulation and modeling. We first discuss modules used for wave propagation, absorption, and current drive with particular emphasis placed on comparing exact numerical solutions of the Fokker Planck equation in 2-dimension with solution methods that employ 1-dimensional and adjoint approaches. We also survey model predictions for LHCD in past and present experiments showing detailed comparisons between simulated and observed current drive efficiencies and hard X-ray profiles. Finally we discuss several model predictions for lower hybrid current profile control in proposed next step reactor options. (authors)

  3. Prediction Errors of Molecular Machine Learning Models Lower than Hybrid DFT Error.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faber, Felix A; Hutchison, Luke; Huang, Bing; Gilmer, Justin; Schoenholz, Samuel S; Dahl, George E; Vinyals, Oriol; Kearnes, Steven; Riley, Patrick F; von Lilienfeld, O Anatole

    2017-11-14

    evidence that ML model predictions deviate from DFT (B3LYP) less than DFT (B3LYP) deviates from experiment for all properties. Furthermore, out-of-sample prediction errors with respect to hybrid DFT reference are on par with, or close to, chemical accuracy. The results suggest that ML models could be more accurate than hybrid DFT if explicitly electron correlated quantum (or experimental) data were available.

  4. Genomic Prediction of Barley Hybrid Performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Norman Philipp

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Hybrid breeding in barley ( L. offers great opportunities to accelerate the rate of genetic improvement and to boost yield stability. A crucial requirement consists of the efficient selection of superior hybrid combinations. We used comprehensive phenotypic and genomic data from a commercial breeding program with the goal of examining the potential to predict the hybrid performances. The phenotypic data were comprised of replicated grain yield trials for 385 two-way and 408 three-way hybrids evaluated in up to 47 environments. The parental lines were genotyped using a 3k single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP array based on an Illumina Infinium assay. We implemented ridge regression best linear unbiased prediction modeling for additive and dominance effects and evaluated the prediction ability using five-fold cross validations. The prediction ability of hybrid performances based on general combining ability (GCA effects was moderate, amounting to 0.56 and 0.48 for two- and three-way hybrids, respectively. The potential of GCA-based hybrid prediction requires that both parental components have been evaluated in a hybrid background. This is not necessary for genomic prediction for which we also observed moderate cross-validated prediction abilities of 0.51 and 0.58 for two- and three-way hybrids, respectively. This exemplifies the potential of genomic prediction in hybrid barley. Interestingly, prediction ability using the two-way hybrids as training population and the three-way hybrids as test population or vice versa was low, presumably, because of the different genetic makeup of the parental source populations. Consequently, further research is needed to optimize genomic prediction approaches combining different source populations in barley.

  5. Prediction of Sliding Friction Coefficient Based on a Novel Hybrid Molecular-Mechanical Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiaogang; Zhang, Yali; Wang, Jianmei; Sheng, Chenxing; Li, Zhixiong

    2018-08-01

    Sliding friction is a complex phenomenon which arises from the mechanical and molecular interactions of asperities when examined in a microscale. To reveal and further understand the effects of micro scaled mechanical and molecular components of friction coefficient on overall frictional behavior, a hybrid molecular-mechanical model is developed to investigate the effects of main factors, including different loads and surface roughness values, on the sliding friction coefficient in a boundary lubrication condition. Numerical modelling was conducted using a deterministic contact model and based on the molecular-mechanical theory of friction. In the contact model, with given external loads and surface topographies, the pressure distribution, real contact area, and elastic/plastic deformation of each single asperity contact were calculated. Then asperity friction coefficient was predicted by the sum of mechanical and molecular components of friction coefficient. The mechanical component was mainly determined by the contact width and elastic/plastic deformation, and the molecular component was estimated as a function of the contact area and interfacial shear stress. Numerical results were compared with experimental results and a good agreement was obtained. The model was then used to predict friction coefficients in different operating and surface conditions. Numerical results explain why applied load has a minimum effect on the friction coefficients. They also provide insight into the effect of surface roughness on the mechanical and molecular components of friction coefficients. It is revealed that the mechanical component dominates the friction coefficient when the surface roughness is large (Rq > 0.2 μm), while the friction coefficient is mainly determined by the molecular component when the surface is relatively smooth (Rq < 0.2 μm). Furthermore, optimal roughness values for minimizing the friction coefficient are recommended.

  6. Prediction of Natural Gas Consumption in Different Regions of China Using a Hybrid MVO-NNGBM Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoyu Wang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The accurate and reasonable prediction of natural gas consumption is significant for the government to formulate energy planning. To this end, we use the multiverse optimizer (MVO algorithm to optimize the parameters of the Nash nonlinear grey Bernoulli model (NNGBM (1,1 and propose a hybrid MVO-NNGBM model to predict the natural gas consumption in 30 regions of China. The results indicate that the prediction precision of the hybrid MVO-NNGBM model is better than that of other grey-based models. According to the forecast results, China’s natural gas consumption will grow rapidly over the next five years and reach 354.1 billion cubic meters (bcm by 2020. Moreover, the spatial distribution of natural gas consumption will shift from being supply oriented towards being demand driven and will be mainly concentrated in coastal and developed provinces.

  7. Neural and hybrid modeling: an alternative route to efficiently predict the behavior of biotechnological processes aimed at biofuels obtainment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curcio, Stefano; Saraceno, Alessandra; Calabrò, Vincenza; Iorio, Gabriele

    2014-01-01

    The present paper was aimed at showing that advanced modeling techniques, based either on artificial neural networks or on hybrid systems, might efficiently predict the behavior of two biotechnological processes designed for the obtainment of second-generation biofuels from waste biomasses. In particular, the enzymatic transesterification of waste-oil glycerides, the key step for the obtainment of biodiesel, and the anaerobic digestion of agroindustry wastes to produce biogas were modeled. It was proved that the proposed modeling approaches provided very accurate predictions of systems behavior. Both neural network and hybrid modeling definitely represented a valid alternative to traditional theoretical models, especially when comprehensive knowledge of the metabolic pathways, of the true kinetic mechanisms, and of the transport phenomena involved in biotechnological processes was difficult to be achieved.

  8. Neural and Hybrid Modeling: An Alternative Route to Efficiently Predict the Behavior of Biotechnological Processes Aimed at Biofuels Obtainment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefano Curcio

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The present paper was aimed at showing that advanced modeling techniques, based either on artificial neural networks or on hybrid systems, might efficiently predict the behavior of two biotechnological processes designed for the obtainment of second-generation biofuels from waste biomasses. In particular, the enzymatic transesterification of waste-oil glycerides, the key step for the obtainment of biodiesel, and the anaerobic digestion of agroindustry wastes to produce biogas were modeled. It was proved that the proposed modeling approaches provided very accurate predictions of systems behavior. Both neural network and hybrid modeling definitely represented a valid alternative to traditional theoretical models, especially when comprehensive knowledge of the metabolic pathways, of the true kinetic mechanisms, and of the transport phenomena involved in biotechnological processes was difficult to be achieved.

  9. Model predictive control for power fluctuation supression in hybrid wind/PV/battery systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    You, Shi; Liu, Zongyu; Zong, Yi

    2015-01-01

    A hybrid energy system, the combination of wind turbines, PV panels and battery storage with effective control mechanism, represents a promising solution to the power fluctuation problem when integrating renewable energy resources (RES) into conventional power systems. This paper proposes a model...

  10. A hybrid discrete-continuum mathematical model of pattern prediction in the developing retinal vasculature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDougall, S R; Watson, M G; Devlin, A H; Mitchell, C A; Chaplain, M A J

    2012-10-01

    by means of a system of five coupled partial differential equations (Aubert et al. in Bull. Math. Biol. 73:2430-2451, 2011). However, this approach was unable to generate spatial information and structural detail for the entire retinal surface. Building upon this earlier work, a more realistic two-dimensional hybrid PDE-discrete model is derived here that tracks the migration of individual astrocytes and endothelial tip cells towards the outer retinal boundary. Blood perfusion is included throughout plexus development and the emergent retinal architectures adapt and remodel in response to various biological factors. The resulting in silico RVP structures are compared with whole-mounted retinal vasculatures at various stages of development, and the agreement is found to be excellent. Having successfully benchmarked the model against wild-type data, the effect of transgenic over-expression of various genes is predicted, based on the ocular-specific expression of VEGF-A during murine development. These results can be used to help inform future experimental investigations of signalling pathways in ocular conditions characterised by aberrant angiogenesis.

  11. High-Fidelity Battery Model for Model Predictive Control Implemented into a Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicolas Sockeel

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Power management strategies have impacts on fuel economy, greenhouse gasses (GHG emission, as well as effects on the durability of power-train components. This is why different off-line and real-time optimal control approaches are being developed. However, real-time control seems to be more attractive than off-line control because it can be directly implemented for managing power and energy flows inside an actual vehicle. One interesting illustration of these power management strategies is the model predictive control (MPC based algorithm. Inside a MPC, a cost function is optimized while system constraints are validated in real time. The MPC algorithm relies on dynamic models of the vehicle and the battery. The complexity and accuracy of the battery model are usually neglected to benefit the development of new cost functions or better MPC algorithms. The contribution of this manuscript consists of developing and evaluating a high-fidelity battery model of a plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV that has been used for MPC. Via empirical work and simulation, the impact of a high-fidelity battery model has been evaluated and compared to a simpler model in the context of MPC. It is proven that the new battery model reduces the absolute voltage, state of charge (SoC, and battery power loss error by a factor of 3.2, 1.9 and 2.1 on average respectively, compared to the simpler battery model.

  12. Hybrid Prediction Model of the Temperature Field of a Motorized Spindle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lixiu Zhang

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The thermal characteristics of a motorized spindle are the main determinants of its performance, and influence the machining accuracy of computer numerical control machine tools. It is important to accurately predict the thermal field of a motorized spindle during its operation to improve its thermal characteristics. This paper proposes a model to predict the temperature field of a high-speed and high-precision motorized spindle under different working conditions using a finite element model and test data. The finite element model considers the influence of the parameters of the cooling system and the lubrication system, and that of environmental conditions on the coefficient of heat transfer based on test data for the surface temperature of the motorized spindle. A genetic algorithm is used to optimize the coefficient of heat transfer of the spindle, and its temperature field is predicted using a three-dimensional model that employs this optimal coefficient. A prediction model of the 170MD30 temperature field of the motorized spindle is created and simulation data for the temperature field are compared with the test data. The results show that when the speed of the spindle is 10,000 rpm, the relative mean prediction error is 1.5%, and when its speed is 15,000 rpm, the prediction error is 3.6%. Therefore, the proposed prediction model can predict the temperature field of the motorized spindle with high accuracy.

  13. Predictability and interpretability of hybrid link-level crash frequency models for urban arterials compared to cluster-based and general negative binomial regression models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Najaf, Pooya; Duddu, Venkata R; Pulugurtha, Srinivas S

    2018-03-01

    Machine learning (ML) techniques have higher prediction accuracy compared to conventional statistical methods for crash frequency modelling. However, their black-box nature limits the interpretability. The objective of this research is to combine both ML and statistical methods to develop hybrid link-level crash frequency models with high predictability and interpretability. For this purpose, M5' model trees method (M5') is introduced and applied to classify the crash data and then calibrate a model for each homogenous class. The data for 1134 and 345 randomly selected links on urban arterials in the city of Charlotte, North Carolina was used to develop and validate models, respectively. The outputs from the hybrid approach are compared with the outputs from cluster-based negative binomial regression (NBR) and general NBR models. Findings indicate that M5' has high predictability and is very reliable to interpret the role of different attributes on crash frequency compared to other developed models.

  14. Neuro-Fuzzy Prediction of Cooperation Interaction Profile of Flexible Road Train Based on Hybrid Automaton Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Banjanovic-Mehmedovic Lejla

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Accurate prediction of traffic information is important in many applications in relation to Intelligent Transport systems (ITS, since it reduces the uncertainty of future traffic states and improves traffic mobility. There is a lot of research done in the field of traffic information predictions such as speed, flow and travel time. The most important research was done in the domain of cooperative intelligent transport system (C-ITS. The goal of this paper is to introduce the novel cooperation behaviour profile prediction through the example of flexible Road Trains useful road cooperation parameter, which contributes to the improvement of traffic mobility in Intelligent Transportation Systems. This paper presents an approach towards the control and cooperation behaviour modelling of vehicles in the flexible Road Train based on hybrid automaton and neuro-fuzzy (ANFIS prediction of cooperation profile of the flexible Road Train. Hybrid automaton takes into account complex dynamics of each vehicle as well as discrete cooperation approach. The ANFIS is a particular class of the ANN family with attractive estimation and learning potentials. In order to provide statistical analysis, RMSE (root mean square error, coefficient of determination (R2 and Pearson coefficient (r, were utilized. The study results suggest that ANFIS would be an efficient soft computing methodology, which could offer precise predictions of cooperative interactions between vehicles in Road Train, which is useful for prediction mobility in Intelligent Transport systems.

  15. A Hybrid Short-Term Traffic Flow Prediction Model Based on Singular Spectrum Analysis and Kernel Extreme Learning Machine.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qiang Shang

    Full Text Available Short-term traffic flow prediction is one of the most important issues in the field of intelligent transport system (ITS. Because of the uncertainty and nonlinearity, short-term traffic flow prediction is a challenging task. In order to improve the accuracy of short-time traffic flow prediction, a hybrid model (SSA-KELM is proposed based on singular spectrum analysis (SSA and kernel extreme learning machine (KELM. SSA is used to filter out the noise of traffic flow time series. Then, the filtered traffic flow data is used to train KELM model, the optimal input form of the proposed model is determined by phase space reconstruction, and parameters of the model are optimized by gravitational search algorithm (GSA. Finally, case validation is carried out using the measured data of an expressway in Xiamen, China. And the SSA-KELM model is compared with several well-known prediction models, including support vector machine, extreme learning machine, and single KLEM model. The experimental results demonstrate that performance of the proposed model is superior to that of the comparison models. Apart from accuracy improvement, the proposed model is more robust.

  16. Framework for developing hybrid process-driven, artificial neural network and regression models for salinity prediction in river systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunter, Jason M.; Maier, Holger R.; Gibbs, Matthew S.; Foale, Eloise R.; Grosvenor, Naomi A.; Harders, Nathan P.; Kikuchi-Miller, Tahali C.

    2018-05-01

    to account for the flushing of the different floodplain storages. The resulting hybrid model performs very well on approximately 3 years of daily validation data, with a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 0.89 and a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 12.62 mg L-1 (over a range from approximately 50 to 250 mg L-1). Each component of the hybrid model results in noticeable improvements in model performance corresponding to the range of flows for which they are developed. The predictive performance of the hybrid model is significantly better than that of a benchmark process-driven model (NSE = -0.14, RMSE = 41.10 mg L-1, Gbench index = 0.90) and slightly better than that of a benchmark data-driven (ANN) model (NSE = 0.83, RMSE = 15.93 mg L-1, Gbench index = 0.36). Apart from improved predictive performance, the hybrid model also has advantages over the ANN benchmark model in terms of increased capacity for improving system understanding and greater ability to support management decisions.

  17. A hybrid model to predict the onset of gas entrainment with surface tension effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saleh, W.; Bowden, R.C.; Hassan, I.G.; Kadem, L.

    2008-01-01

    The onset of gas entrainment, in a single downward oriented discharge from a stratified gas-liquid region with was modeled. The assumptions made in the development of the model reduced the problem to that of a potential flow. The discharge was modeled as a point-sink. Through use of the Kelvin-Laplace equation the model included the effects of surface tension. The resulting model required further knowledge of the flow field, specifically the dip radius of curvature prior to the onset of gas entrainment. The dip shape and size was investigated experimentally and correlations were provided to characterize the dip in terms of the discharge Froude number. The experimental correlation was used in conjunction with the theoretical model to predict the critical height. The results showed that by including surface tension effects the predicted critical height showed excellent agreement with experimental data. Surface tension reduces the critical height through the Bond number

  18. Using a hybrid model to predict solute transfer from initially saturated soil into surface runoff with controlled drainage water.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tong, Juxiu; Hu, Bill X; Yang, Jinzhong; Zhu, Yan

    2016-06-01

    The mixing layer theory is not suitable for predicting solute transfer from initially saturated soil to surface runoff water under controlled drainage conditions. By coupling the mixing layer theory model with the numerical model Hydrus-1D, a hybrid solute transfer model has been proposed to predict soil solute transfer from an initially saturated soil into surface water, under controlled drainage water conditions. The model can also consider the increasing ponding water conditions on soil surface before surface runoff. The data of solute concentration in surface runoff and drainage water from a sand experiment is used as the reference experiment. The parameters for the water flow and solute transfer model and mixing layer depth under controlled drainage water condition are identified. Based on these identified parameters, the model is applied to another initially saturated sand experiment with constant and time-increasing mixing layer depth after surface runoff, under the controlled drainage water condition with lower drainage height at the bottom. The simulation results agree well with the observed data. Study results suggest that the hybrid model can accurately simulate the solute transfer from initially saturated soil into surface runoff under controlled drainage water condition. And it has been found that the prediction with increasing mixing layer depth is better than that with the constant one in the experiment with lower drainage condition. Since lower drainage condition and deeper ponded water depth result in later runoff start time, more solute sources in the mixing layer are needed for the surface water, and larger change rate results in the increasing mixing layer depth.

  19. Model predictive control-based efficient energy recovery control strategy for regenerative braking system of hybrid electric bus

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Liang; Zhang, Yuanbo; Yang, Chao; Yan, Bingjie; Marina Martinez, C.

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • A 7-degree-of-freedom model of hybrid electric vehicle with regenerative braking system is built. • A modified nonlinear model predictive control strategy is developed. • The particle swarm optimization algorithm is employed to solve the optimization problem. • The proposed control strategy is verified by simulation and hardware-in-loop tests. • Test results verify the effectiveness of the proposed control strategy. - Abstract: As one of the main working modes, the energy recovered with regenerative braking system provides an effective approach so as to greatly improve fuel economy of hybrid electric bus. However, it is still a challenging issue to ensure braking stability while maximizing braking energy recovery. To solve this problem, an efficient energy recovery control strategy is proposed based on the modified nonlinear model predictive control method. Firstly, combined with the characteristics of the compound braking process of single-shaft parallel hybrid electric bus, a 7 degrees of freedom model of the vehicle longitudinal dynamics is built. Secondly, considering nonlinear characteristic of the vehicle model and the efficiency of regenerative braking system, the particle swarm optimization algorithm within the modified nonlinear model predictive control is adopted to optimize the torque distribution between regenerative braking system and pneumatic braking system at the wheels. So as to reduce the computational time of modified nonlinear model predictive control, a nearest point method is employed during the braking process. Finally, the simulation and hardware-in-loop test are carried out on road conditions with different tire–road adhesion coefficients, and the proposed control strategy is verified by comparing it with the conventional control method employed in the baseline vehicle controller. The simulation and hardware-in-loop test results show that the proposed strategy can ensure vehicle safety during emergency braking

  20. Genomic Prediction of Sunflower Hybrids Oil Content

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brigitte Mangin

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Prediction of hybrid performance using incomplete factorial mating designs is widely used in breeding programs including different heterotic groups. Based on the general combining ability (GCA of the parents, predictions are accurate only if the genetic variance resulting from the specific combining ability is small and both parents have phenotyped descendants. Genomic selection (GS can predict performance using a model trained on both phenotyped and genotyped hybrids that do not necessarily include all hybrid parents. Therefore, GS could overcome the issue of unknown parent GCA. Here, we compared the accuracy of classical GCA-based and genomic predictions for oil content of sunflower seeds using several GS models. Our study involved 452 sunflower hybrids from an incomplete factorial design of 36 female and 36 male lines. Re-sequencing of parental lines allowed to identify 468,194 non-redundant SNPs and to infer the hybrid genotypes. Oil content was observed in a multi-environment trial (MET over 3 years, leading to nine different environments. We compared GCA-based model to different GS models including female and male genomic kinships with the addition of the female-by-male interaction genomic kinship, the use of functional knowledge as SNPs in genes of oil metabolic pathways, and with epistasis modeling. When both parents have descendants in the training set, the predictive ability was high even for GCA-based prediction, with an average MET value of 0.782. GS performed slightly better (+0.2%. Neither the inclusion of the female-by-male interaction, nor functional knowledge of oil metabolism, nor epistasis modeling improved the GS accuracy. GS greatly improved predictive ability when one or both parents were untested in the training set, increasing GCA-based predictive ability by 10.4% from 0.575 to 0.635 in the MET. In this scenario, performing GS only considering SNPs in oil metabolic pathways did not improve whole genome GS prediction but

  1. Hybrid model predictive control of a residential HVAC system with on-site thermal energy generation and storage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fiorentini, Massimo; Wall, Josh; Ma, Zhenjun; Braslavsky, Julio H.; Cooper, Paul

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • A comprehensive approach to managing thermal energy in residential buildings. • Solar-assisted HVAC system with on-site energy generation and storage. • Mixed logic-dynamical building model identified using experimental data. • Design and implementation of a logic-dynamical model predictive control strategy. • MPC applied to the Net-Zero Energy house winner of the Solar Decathlon China 2013. - Abstract: This paper describes the development, implementation and experimental investigation of a Hybrid Model Predictive Control (HMPC) strategy to control solar-assisted heating, ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems with on-site thermal energy generation and storage. A comprehensive approach to the thermal energy management of a residential building is presented to optimise the scheduling of the available thermal energy resources to meet a comfort objective. The system has a hybrid nature with both continuous variables and discrete, logic-driven operating modes. The proposed control strategy is organized in two hierarchical levels. At the high-level, an HMPC controller with a 24-h prediction horizon and a 1-h control step is used to select the operating mode of the HVAC system. At the low-level, each operating mode is optimised using a 1-h rolling prediction horizon with a 5-min control step. The proposed control strategy has been practically implemented on the Building Management and Control System (BMCS) of a Net Zero-Energy Solar Decathlon house. This house features a sophisticated HVAC system comprising of an air-based photovoltaic thermal (PVT) collector and a phase change material (PCM) thermal storage integrated with the air-handling unit (AHU) of a ducted reverse-cycle heat pump system. The simulation and experimental results demonstrated the high performance achievable using an HMPC approach to optimising complex multimode HVAC systems in residential buildings, illustrating efficient selection of the appropriate operating modes

  2. A hybrid machine learning model to predict and visualize nitrate concentration throughout the Central Valley aquifer, California, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ransom, Katherine M.; Nolan, Bernard T.; Traum, Jonathan A.; Faunt, Claudia; Bell, Andrew M.; Gronberg, Jo Ann M.; Wheeler, David C.; Zamora, Celia; Jurgens, Bryant; Schwarz, Gregory E.; Belitz, Kenneth; Eberts, Sandra; Kourakos, George; Harter, Thomas

    2017-01-01

    Intense demand for water in the Central Valley of California and related increases in groundwater nitrate concentration threaten the sustainability of the groundwater resource. To assess contamination risk in the region, we developed a hybrid, non-linear, machine learning model within a statistical learning framework to predict nitrate contamination of groundwater to depths of approximately 500 m below ground surface. A database of 145 predictor variables representing well characteristics, historical and current field and landscape-scale nitrogen mass balances, historical and current land use, oxidation/reduction conditions, groundwater flow, climate, soil characteristics, depth to groundwater, and groundwater age were assigned to over 6000 private supply and public supply wells measured previously for nitrate and located throughout the study area. The boosted regression tree (BRT) method was used to screen and rank variables to predict nitrate concentration at the depths of domestic and public well supplies. The novel approach included as predictor variables outputs from existing physically based models of the Central Valley. The top five most important predictor variables included two oxidation/reduction variables (probability of manganese concentration to exceed 50 ppb and probability of dissolved oxygen concentration to be below 0.5 ppm), field-scale adjusted unsaturated zone nitrogen input for the 1975 time period, average difference between precipitation and evapotranspiration during the years 1971–2000, and 1992 total landscape nitrogen input. Twenty-five variables were selected for the final model for log-transformed nitrate. In general, increasing probability of anoxic conditions and increasing precipitation relative to potential evapotranspiration had a corresponding decrease in nitrate concentration predictions. Conversely, increasing 1975 unsaturated zone nitrogen leaching flux and 1992 total landscape nitrogen input had an increasing relative

  3. Multiple Model Predictive Hybrid Feedforward Control of Fuel Cell Power Generation System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Long Wu

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC is widely considered as an alternative solution among the family of the sustainable distributed generation. Its load flexibility enables it adjusting the power output to meet the requirements from power grid balance. Although promising, its control is challenging when faced with load changes, during which the output voltage is required to be maintained as constant and fuel utilization rate kept within a safe range. Moreover, it makes the control even more intractable because of the multivariable coupling and strong nonlinearity within the wide-range operating conditions. To this end, this paper developed a multiple model predictive control strategy for reliable SOFC operation. The resistance load is regarded as a measurable disturbance, which is an input to the model predictive control as feedforward compensation. The coupling is accommodated by the receding horizon optimization. The nonlinearity is mitigated by the multiple linear models, the weighted sum of which serves as the final control execution. The merits of the proposed control structure are demonstrated by the simulation results.

  4. A hybrid prognostic model for multistep ahead prediction of machine condition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roulias, D.; Loutas, T. H.; Kostopoulos, V.

    2012-05-01

    Prognostics are the future trend in condition based maintenance. In the current framework a data driven prognostic model is developed. The typical procedure of developing such a model comprises a) the selection of features which correlate well with the gradual degradation of the machine and b) the training of a mathematical tool. In this work the data are taken from a laboratory scale single stage gearbox under multi-sensor monitoring. Tests monitoring the condition of the gear pair from healthy state until total brake down following several days of continuous operation were conducted. After basic pre-processing of the derived data, an indicator that correlated well with the gearbox condition was obtained. Consecutively the time series is split in few distinguishable time regions via an intelligent data clustering scheme. Each operating region is modelled with a feed-forward artificial neural network (FFANN) scheme. The performance of the proposed model is tested by applying the system to predict the machine degradation level on unseen data. The results show the plausibility and effectiveness of the model in following the trend of the timeseries even in the case that a sudden change occurs. Moreover the model shows ability to generalise for application in similar mechanical assets.

  5. More electric aircraft starter-generator system with utilization of hybrid modulated model predictive control

    OpenAIRE

    Yoeh, Seang Shen; Yang, Tao; Tarisciotti, Luca; Hill, Christopher Ian; Bozhko, Serhiy

    2016-01-01

    The current trend for future aircraft is the adoption of the More Electric Aircraft (MEA) concept. The electrical based starter-generator (S/G) system is one of the core ideas from the MEA concept. The PI based control scheme has been investigated in various papers for the permanent magnet based S/G system. Different control schemes are to be considered to improve the control performance of the S/G system. A type of non-linear control called Model Predictive Control (MPC) is considered for it...

  6. A Multi-Compartment Hybrid Computational Model Predicts Key Roles for Dendritic Cells in Tuberculosis Infection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simeone Marino

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Tuberculosis (TB is a world-wide health problem with approximately 2 billion people infected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb, the causative bacterium of TB. The pathologic hallmark of Mtb infection in humans and Non-Human Primates (NHPs is the formation of spherical structures, primarily in lungs, called granulomas. Infection occurs after inhalation of bacteria into lungs, where resident antigen-presenting cells (APCs, take up bacteria and initiate the immune response to Mtb infection. APCs traffic from the site of infection (lung to lung-draining lymph nodes (LNs where they prime T cells to recognize Mtb. These T cells, circulating back through blood, migrate back to lungs to perform their immune effector functions. We have previously developed a hybrid agent-based model (ABM, labeled GranSim describing in silico immune cell, bacterial (Mtb and molecular behaviors during tuberculosis infection and recently linked that model to operate across three physiological compartments: lung (infection site where granulomas form, lung draining lymph node (LN, site of generation of adaptive immunity and blood (a measurable compartment. Granuloma formation and function is captured by a spatio-temporal model (i.e., ABM, while LN and blood compartments represent temporal dynamics of the whole body in response to infection and are captured with ordinary differential equations (ODEs. In order to have a more mechanistic representation of APC trafficking from the lung to the lymph node, and to better capture antigen presentation in a draining LN, this current study incorporates the role of dendritic cells (DCs in a computational fashion into GranSim. Results: The model was calibrated using experimental data from the lungs and blood of NHPs. The addition of DCs allowed us to investigate in greater detail mechanisms of recruitment, trafficking and antigen presentation and their role in tuberculosis infection. Conclusion: The main conclusion of this study is

  7. Prediction of China's coal production-environmental pollution based on a hybrid genetic algorithm-system dynamics model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu Shiwei; Wei Yiming

    2012-01-01

    This paper proposes a hybrid model based on genetic algorithm (GA) and system dynamics (SD) for coal production–environmental pollution load in China. GA has been utilized in the optimization of the parameters of the SD model to reduce implementation subjectivity. The chain of “Economic development–coal demand–coal production–environmental pollution load” of China in 2030 was predicted, and scenarios were analyzed. Results show that: (1) GA performs well in optimizing the parameters of the SD model objectively and in simulating the historical data; (2) The demand for coal energy continuously increases, although the coal intensity has actually decreased because of China's persistent economic development. Furthermore, instead of reaching a turning point by 2030, the environmental pollution load continuously increases each year even under the scenario where coal intensity decreased by 20% and investment in pollution abatement increased by 20%; (3) For abating the amount of “three types of wastes”, reducing the coal intensity is more effective than reducing the polluted production per tonne of coal and increasing investment in pollution control. - Highlights: ► We propos a GA-SD model for China's coal production-pollution prediction. ► Genetic algorithm (GA) can objectively and accurately optimize parameters of system dynamics (SD) model. ► Environmental pollution in China is projected to grow in our scenarios by 2030. ► The mechanism of reducing waste production per tonne of coal mining is more effective than others.

  8. Frequency Transient Suppression in Hybrid Electric Ship Power Systems: A Model Predictive Control Strategy for Converter Control with Energy Storage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Viknash Shagar

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to understand how the common phenomenon of fluctuations in propulsion and service load demand contribute to frequency transients in hybrid electric ship power systems. These fluctuations arise mainly due to changes in sea conditions resulting in significant variations in the propulsion load demand of ships. This leads to poor power quality for the power system that can potentially cause hazardous conditions such as blackout on board the ship. Effects of these fluctuations are analysed using a hybrid electric ship power system model and a proposed Model Predictive Control (MPC strategy to prevent propagation of transients from the propellers into the shipboard power system. A battery energy storage system, which is directly connected to the DC-link of the frequency converter, is used as the smoothing element. Case studies that involve propulsion and service load changes have been carried out to investigate the efficacy of the proposed solution. Simulation results show that the proposed solution with energy storage and MPC is able to contain frequency transients in the shipboard power system within the permissible levels stipulated by the relevant power quality standards. These findings will help ship builders and operators to consider using battery energy storage systems controlled by advanced control techniques such as MPC to improve the power quality on board ships.

  9. Predicting the impact of combined therapies on myeloma cell growth using a hybrid multi-scale agent-based model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ji, Zhiwei; Su, Jing; Wu, Dan; Peng, Huiming; Zhao, Weiling; Nlong Zhao, Brian; Zhou, Xiaobo

    2017-01-31

    Multiple myeloma is a malignant still incurable plasma cell disorder. This is due to refractory disease relapse, immune impairment, and development of multi-drug resistance. The growth of malignant plasma cells is dependent on the bone marrow (BM) microenvironment and evasion of the host's anti-tumor immune response. Hence, we hypothesized that targeting tumor-stromal cell interaction and endogenous immune system in BM will potentially improve the response of multiple myeloma (MM). Therefore, we proposed a computational simulation of the myeloma development in the complicated microenvironment which includes immune cell components and bone marrow stromal cells and predicted the effects of combined treatment with multi-drugs on myeloma cell growth. We constructed a hybrid multi-scale agent-based model (HABM) that combines an ODE system and Agent-based model (ABM). The ODEs was used for modeling the dynamic changes of intracellular signal transductions and ABM for modeling the cell-cell interactions between stromal cells, tumor, and immune components in the BM. This model simulated myeloma growth in the bone marrow microenvironment and revealed the important role of immune system in this process. The predicted outcomes were consistent with the experimental observations from previous studies. Moreover, we applied this model to predict the treatment effects of three key therapeutic drugs used for MM, and found that the combination of these three drugs potentially suppress the growth of myeloma cells and reactivate the immune response. In summary, the proposed model may serve as a novel computational platform for simulating the formation of MM and evaluating the treatment response of MM to multiple drugs.

  10. Model Predictive Control techniques with application to photovoltaic, DC Microgrid, and a multi-sourced hybrid energy system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shadmand, Mohammad Bagher

    Renewable energy sources continue to gain popularity. However, two major limitations exist that prevent widespread adoption: availability and variability of the electricity generated and the cost of the equipment. The focus of this dissertation is Model Predictive Control (MPC) for optimal sized photovoltaic (PV), DC Microgrid, and multi-sourced hybrid energy systems. The main considered applications are: maximum power point tracking (MPPT) by MPC, droop predictive control of DC microgrid, MPC of grid-interaction inverter, MPC of a capacitor-less VAR compensator based on matrix converter (MC). This dissertation firstly investigates a multi-objective optimization technique for a hybrid distribution system. The variability of a high-penetration PV scenario is also studied when incorporated into the microgrid concept. Emerging (PV) technologies have enabled the creation of contoured and conformal PV surfaces; the effect of using non-planar PV modules on variability is also analyzed. The proposed predictive control to achieve maximum power point for isolated and grid-tied PV systems speeds up the control loop since it predicts error before the switching signal is applied to the converter. The low conversion efficiency of PV cells means we want to ensure always operating at maximum possible power point to make the system economical. Thus the proposed MPPT technique can capture more energy compared to the conventional MPPT techniques from same amount of installed solar panel. Because of the MPPT requirement, the output voltage of the converter may vary. Therefore a droop control is needed to feed multiple arrays of photovoltaic systems to a DC bus in microgrid community. Development of a droop control technique by means of predictive control is another application of this dissertation. Reactive power, denoted as Volt Ampere Reactive (VAR), has several undesirable consequences on AC power system network such as reduction in power transfer capability and increase in

  11. A Structurally Simplified Hybrid Model of Genetic Algorithm and Support Vector Machine for Prediction of Chlorophyll a in Reservoirs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jieqiong Su

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available With decreasing water availability as a result of climate change and human activities, analysis of the influential factors and variation trends of chlorophyll a has become important to prevent reservoir eutrophication and ensure water supply safety. In this paper, a structurally simplified hybrid model of the genetic algorithm (GA and the support vector machine (SVM was developed for the prediction of monthly concentration of chlorophyll a in the Miyun Reservoir of northern China over the period from 2000 to 2010. Based on the influence factor analysis, the four most relevant influence factors of chlorophyll a (i.e., total phosphorus, total nitrogen, permanganate index, and reservoir storage were extracted using the method of feature selection with the GA, which simplified the model structure, making it more practical and efficient for environmental management. The results showed that the developed simplified GA-SVM model could solve nonlinear problems of complex system, and was suitable for the simulation and prediction of chlorophyll a with better performance in accuracy and efficiency in the Miyun Reservoir.

  12. Hybrid2 - The hybrid power system simulation model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baring-Gould, E.I.; Green, H.J.; Dijk, V.A.P. van [National Renewable Energy Lab., Golden, CO (United States); Manwell, J.F. [Univ. of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA (United States)

    1996-12-31

    There is a large-scale need and desire for energy in remote communities, especially in the developing world; however the lack of a user friendly, flexible performance prediction model for hybrid power systems incorporating renewables hindered the analysis of hybrids as options to conventional solutions. A user friendly model was needed with the versatility to simulate the many system locations, widely varying hardware configurations, and differing control options for potential hybrid power systems. To meet these ends, researchers from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the University of Massachusetts (UMass) developed the Hybrid2 software. This paper provides an overview of the capabilities, features, and functionality of the Hybrid2 code, discusses its validation and future plans. Model availability and technical support provided to Hybrid2 users are also discussed. 12 refs., 3 figs., 4 tabs.

  13. A hybrid mathematical modeling approach of the metabolic fate of a fluorescent sphingolipid analogue to predict cancer chemosensitivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molina-Mora, J A; Kop-Montero, M; Quirós-Fernández, I; Quiros, S; Crespo-Mariño, J L; Mora-Rodríguez, R A

    2018-04-13

    Sphingolipid (SL) metabolism is a complex biological system that produces and transforms ceramides and other molecules able to modulate other cellular processes, including survival or death pathways key to cell fate decisions. This signaling pathway integrates several types of stress signals, including chemotherapy, into changes in the activity of its metabolic enzymes, altering thereby the cellular composition of bioactive SLs. Therefore, the SL pathway is a promising sensor of chemosensitivity in cancer and a target hub to overcome resistance. However, there is still a gap in our understanding of how chemotherapeutic drugs can disturb the SL pathway in order to control cellular fate. We propose to bridge this gap by a systems biology approach to integrate i) a dynamic model of SL analogue (BODIPY-FL fluorescent-sphingomyelin analogue, SM-BOD) metabolism, ii) a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) of the fluorescence features to identify how the SL pathway senses the effect of chemotherapy and iii) a fuzzy logic model (FLM) to associate SL composition with cell viability by semi-quantitative rules. Altogether, this hybrid model approach was able to predict the cell viability of double experimental perturbations with chemotherapy, indicating that the SL pathway is a promising sensor to design strategies to overcome drug resistance in cancer. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Chromosomal regions involved in hybrid performance and heterosis : their AFLP-based identification and practical use in prediction models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vuylsteke, M.; Kuiper, M.; Stam, P.

    2000-01-01

    In this paper, a novel approach towards the prediction of hybrid performance and heterosis is presented. Here, we describe an approach based on: (i) the assessment of associations between AFLPÒ22 AFLPÒ is a registered trademark of Keygene N.V. ,33 The methylation AFLPÒ method is subject to a patent

  15. Modeling and state-of-charge prediction of lithium-ion battery and ultracapacitor hybrids with a co-estimator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Yujie; Liu, Chang; Pan, Rui; Chen, Zonghai

    2017-01-01

    The modeling and state-of-charge estimation of the batteries and ultracapacitors are crucial to the battery/ultracapacitor hybrid energy storage system. In recent years, the model based state estimators are welcomed widely, since they can adjust the gain according to the error between the model predictions and measurements timely. In most of the existing algorithms, the model parameters are either configured by theoretical values or identified off-line without adaption. But in fact, the model parameters always change continuously with loading wave or self-aging, and the lack of adaption will reduce the estimation accuracy significantly. To overcome this drawback, a novel co-estimator is proposed to estimate the model parameters and state-of-charge simultaneously. The extended Kalman filter is employed for parameter updating. To reduce the convergence time, the recursive least square algorithm and the off-line identification method are used to provide initial values with small deviation. The unscented Kalman filter is employed for the state-of-charge estimation. Because the unscented Kalman filter takes not only the measurement uncertainties but also the process uncertainties into account, it is robust to the noise. Experiments are executed to explore the robustness, stability and precision of the proposed method. - Highlights: • A co-estimator is proposed to estimate the model parameters and state-of-charge. • The extended Kalman filter is used for model parameter adaption. • The unscented Kalman filter is designed for state estimation with strong robust. • The dynamic profiles are employed to verify the proposed co-estimator.

  16. Model Predictive Control of Hybrid Thermal Energy Systems in Transport Refrigeration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shafiei, Seyed Ehsan; Alleyne, Andrew

    2015-01-01

    A predictive control scheme is designed to control a transport refrigeration system, such as a delivery truck, that includes a vapor compression cycle configured in parallel with a thermal energy storage (TES) unit. A novel approach to TES utilization is introduced and is based on the current...

  17. River flow prediction using hybrid models of support vector regression with the wavelet transform, singular spectrum analysis and chaotic approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baydaroğlu, Özlem; Koçak, Kasım; Duran, Kemal

    2018-06-01

    Prediction of water amount that will enter the reservoirs in the following month is of vital importance especially for semi-arid countries like Turkey. Climate projections emphasize that water scarcity will be one of the serious problems in the future. This study presents a methodology for predicting river flow for the subsequent month based on the time series of observed monthly river flow with hybrid models of support vector regression (SVR). Monthly river flow over the period 1940-2012 observed for the Kızılırmak River in Turkey has been used for training the method, which then has been applied for predictions over a period of 3 years. SVR is a specific implementation of support vector machines (SVMs), which transforms the observed input data time series into a high-dimensional feature space (input matrix) by way of a kernel function and performs a linear regression in this space. SVR requires a special input matrix. The input matrix was produced by wavelet transforms (WT), singular spectrum analysis (SSA), and a chaotic approach (CA) applied to the input time series. WT convolutes the original time series into a series of wavelets, and SSA decomposes the time series into a trend, an oscillatory and a noise component by singular value decomposition. CA uses a phase space formed by trajectories, which represent the dynamics producing the time series. These three methods for producing the input matrix for the SVR proved successful, while the SVR-WT combination resulted in the highest coefficient of determination and the lowest mean absolute error.

  18. Predicting fuelwood prices in Greece with the use of ARIMA models, artificial neural networks and a hybrid ARIMA-ANN model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koutroumanidis, Theodoros; Ioannou, Konstantinos; Arabatzis, Garyfallos

    2009-01-01

    Throughout history, energy resources have acquired a strategic significance for the economic growth and social welfare of any country. The large-scale oil crisis of 1973 coupled with various environmental protection issues, have led many countries to look for new, alternative energy sources. Biomass and fuelwood in particular, constitutes a major renewable energy source (RES) that can make a significant contribution, as a substitute for oil. This paper initially provides a description of the contribution of renewable energy sources to the production of electricity, and also examines the role of forests in the production of fuelwood in Greece. Following this, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models, artificial neural networks (ANN) and a hybrid model are used to predict the future selling prices of the fuelwood (from broadleaved and coniferous species) produced by Greek state forest farms. The use of the ARIMA-ANN hybrid model provided the optimum prediction results, thus enabling decision-makers to proceed with a more rational planning for the production and fuelwood market. (author)

  19. Development of a hybrid model to predict construction and demolition waste: China as a case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Yiliao; Wang, Yong; Liu, Feng; Zhang, Yixin

    2017-01-01

    Construction and demolition waste (C&DW) is currently a worldwide issue, and the situation is the worst in China due to a rapid increase in the construction industry and the short life span of China's buildings. To create an opportunity out of this problem, comprehensive prevention measures and effective management strategies are urgently needed. One major gap in the literature of waste management is a lack of estimations on future C&DW generation. Therefore, this paper presents a forecasting procedure for C&DW in China that can forecast the quantity of each component in such waste. The proposed approach is based on a GM-SVR model that improves the forecasting effectiveness of the gray model (GM), which is achieved by adjusting the residual series by a support vector regression (SVR) method and a transition matrix that aims to estimate the discharge of each component in the C&DW. Through the proposed method, future C&DW volume are listed and analyzed containing their potential components and distribution in different provinces in China. Besides, model testing process provides mathematical evidence to validate the proposed model is an effective way to give future information of C&DW for policy makers. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Developing a Hybrid Model to Predict Student First Year Retention in STEM Disciplines Using Machine Learning Techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alkhasawneh, Ruba; Hargraves, Rosalyn Hobson

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this research was to develop a hybrid framework to model first year student retention for underrepresented minority (URM) students comprising African Americans, Hispanic Americans, and Native Americans. Identifying inputs that best contribute to student retention provides significant information for institutions to learn about…

  1. Evaporator modeling - A hybrid approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ding Xudong; Cai Wenjian; Jia Lei; Wen Changyun

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, a hybrid modeling approach is proposed to model two-phase flow evaporators. The main procedures for hybrid modeling includes: (1) Based on the energy and material balance, and thermodynamic principles to formulate the process fundamental governing equations; (2) Select input/output (I/O) variables responsible to the system performance which can be measured and controlled; (3) Represent those variables existing in the original equations but are not measurable as simple functions of selected I/Os or constants; (4) Obtaining a single equation which can correlate system inputs and outputs; and (5) Identify unknown parameters by linear or nonlinear least-squares methods. The method takes advantages of both physical and empirical modeling approaches and can accurately predict performance in wide operating range and in real-time, which can significantly reduce the computational burden and increase the prediction accuracy. The model is verified with the experimental data taken from a testing system. The testing results show that the proposed model can predict accurately the performance of the real-time operating evaporator with the maximum error of ±8%. The developed models will have wide applications in operational optimization, performance assessment, fault detection and diagnosis

  2. A Mixed Logical Dynamical-Model Predictive Control (MLD-MPC Energy Management Control Strategy for Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jing Lian

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs can be considered as a hybrid system (HS which includes the continuous state variable, discrete event, and operation constraint. Thus, a model predictive control (MPC strategy for PHEVs based on the mixed logical dynamical (MLD model and short-term vehicle speed prediction is proposed in this paper. Firstly, the mathematical model of the controlled PHEV is set-up to evaluate the energy consumption using the linearized models of core power components. Then, based on the recognition of driving intention and the past vehicle speed data, a nonlinear auto-regressive (NAR neural network structure is designed to predict the vehicle speed for known driving profiles of city buses and the predicted vehicle speed is used to calculate the total required torque. Next, a MLD model is established with appropriate constraints for six possible driving modes. By solving the objective function with the Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP algorithm, the optimal motor torque and the corresponding driving mode sequence within the speed prediction horizon can be obtained. Finally, the proposed energy control strategy shows substantial improvement in fuel economy in the simulation results.

  3. Hybrid Model of Content Extraction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Qureshi, Pir Abdul Rasool; Memon, Nasrullah

    2012-01-01

    We present a hybrid model for content extraction from HTML documents. The model operates on Document Object Model (DOM) tree of the corresponding HTML document. It evaluates each tree node and associated statistical features like link density and text distribution across the node to predict...... significance of the node towards overall content provided by the document. Once significance of the nodes is determined, the formatting characteristics like fonts, styles and the position of the nodes are evaluated to identify the nodes with similar formatting as compared to the significant nodes. The proposed...

  4. Hybrid Predictive Control for Dynamic Transport Problems

    CERN Document Server

    Núñez, Alfredo A; Cortés, Cristián E

    2013-01-01

    Hybrid Predictive Control for Dynamic Transport Problems develops methods for the design of predictive control strategies for nonlinear-dynamic hybrid discrete-/continuous-variable systems. The methodology is designed for real-time applications, particularly the study of dynamic transport systems. Operational and service policies are considered, as well as cost reduction. The control structure is based on a sound definition of the key variables and their evolution. A flexible objective function able to capture the predictive behaviour of the system variables is described. Coupled with efficient algorithms, mainly drawn from the area of computational intelligence, this is shown to optimize performance indices for real-time applications. The framework of the proposed predictive control methodology is generic and, being able to solve nonlinear mixed-integer optimization problems dynamically, is readily extendable to other industrial processes. The main topics of this book are: ●hybrid predictive control (HPC) ...

  5. A hybrid small-world network/semi-physical model for predicting wildfire spread in heterogeneous landscapes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Billaud, Y; Kaiss, A; Drissi, M; Pizzo, Y; Porterie, B; Zekri, N; Acem, Z; Collin, A; Boulet, P; Santoni, P-A; Bosseur, F

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents the latest developments and validation results of a hybrid model which combines a broad-scale stochastic small-world network model with a macroscopic deterministic approach, to simulate the effects of large fires burning in heterogeneous landscapes. In the extended version of the model, vegetation is depicted as an amorphous network of combustible cells, and both radiation and convection from the flaming zone are considered in the preheating process of unburned cells. Examples are given to illustrate small-world effects and fire behavior near the percolation threshold. The model is applied to a Mediterranean fire that occurred in Corsica in 2009 showing a good agreement in terms of rate of spread, and area and shape of the burn. A study, based on a fractional factorial plan, is conducted to evaluate the influence of variations of model parameters on fire propagation.

  6. Integration of Distributed Services and Hybrid Models Based on Process Choreography to Predict and Detect Type 2 Diabetes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez-Millana, Antonio; Bayo-Monton, Jose-Luis; Argente-Pla, María; Fernandez-Llatas, Carlos; Merino-Torres, Juan Francisco; Traver-Salcedo, Vicente

    2017-12-29

    Life expectancy is increasing and, so, the years that patients have to live with chronic diseases and co-morbidities. Type 2 diabetes is one of the most prevalent chronic diseases, specifically linked to being overweight and ages over sixty. Recent studies have demonstrated the effectiveness of new strategies to delay and even prevent the onset of type 2 diabetes by a combination of active and healthy lifestyle on cohorts of mid to high risk subjects. Prospective research has been driven on large groups of the population to build risk scores that aim to obtain a rule for the classification of patients according to the odds for developing the disease. Currently, there are more than two hundred models and risk scores for doing this, but a few have been properly evaluated in external groups and integrated into a clinical application for decision support. In this paper, we present a novel system architecture based on service choreography and hybrid modeling, which enables a distributed integration of clinical databases, statistical and mathematical engines and web interfaces to be deployed in a clinical setting. The system was assessed during an eight-week continuous period with eight endocrinologists of a hospital who evaluated up to 8080 patients with seven different type 2 diabetes risk models implemented in two mathematical engines. Throughput was assessed as a matter of technical key performance indicators, confirming the reliability and efficiency of the proposed architecture to integrate hybrid artificial intelligence tools into daily clinical routine to identify high risk subjects.

  7. A Lithium-Ion Battery Simulator Based on a Diffusion and Switching Overpotential Hybrid Model for Dynamic Discharging Behavior and Runtime Predictions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lan-Rong Dung

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A new battery simulator based on a hybrid model is proposed in this paper for dynamic discharging behavior and runtime predictions in existing electronic simulation environments, e.g., PSIM, so it can help power circuit designers to develop and optimize their battery-powered electronic systems. The hybrid battery model combines a diffusion model and a switching overpotential model, which automatically switches overpotential resistance mode or overpotential voltage mode to accurately describe the voltage difference between battery electro-motive force (EMF and terminal voltage. Therefore, this simulator can simply run in an electronic simulation software with less computational efforts and estimate battery performances by further considering nonlinear capacity effects. A linear extrapolation technique is adopted for extracting model parameters from constant current discharging tests, so the EMF hysteresis problem is avoided. For model validation, experiments and simulations in MATLAB and PSIM environments are conducted with six different profiles, including constant loads, an interrupted load, increasing and decreasing loads and a varying load. The results confirm the usefulness and accuracy of the proposed simulator. The behavior and runtime prediction errors can be as low as 3.1% and 1.2%, respectively.

  8. A hybrid self-adaptive Particle Swarm Optimization–Genetic Algorithm–Radial Basis Function model for annual electricity demand prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu, Shiwei; Wang, Ke; Wei, Yi-Ming

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • A hybrid self-adaptive PSO–GA-RBF model is proposed for electricity demand prediction. • Each mixed-coding particle is composed by two coding parts of binary and real. • Five independent variables have been selected to predict future electricity consumption in Wuhan. • The proposed model has a simpler structure or higher estimating precision than other ANN models. • No matter what the scenario, the electricity consumption of Wuhan will grow rapidly. - Abstract: The present study proposes a hybrid Particle Swarm Optimization and Genetic Algorithm optimized Radial Basis Function (PSO–GA-RBF) neural network for prediction of annual electricity demand. In the model, each mixed-coding particle (or chromosome) is composed of two coding parts, binary and real, which optimizes the structure of the RBF by GA operation and the parameters of the basis and weights by a PSO–GA implementation. Five independent variables have been selected to predict future electricity consumption in Wuhan by using optimized networks. The results shows that (1) the proposed PSO–GA-RBF model has a simpler network structure (fewer hidden neurons) or higher estimation precision than other selected ANN models; and (2) no matter what the scenario, the electricity consumption of Wuhan will grow rapidly at average annual growth rates of about 9.7–11.5%. By 2020, the electricity demand in the planning scenario, the highest among the scenarios, will be 95.85 billion kW h. The lowest demand is estimated for the business-as-usual scenario, and will be 88.45 billion kW h

  9. Hybrid Active/Passive Control of Sound Radiation from Panels with Constrained Layer Damping and Model Predictive Feedback Control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cabell, Randolph H.; Gibbs, Gary P.

    2000-01-01

    make the controller adaptive. For example, a mathematical model of the plant could be periodically updated as the plant changes, and the feedback gains recomputed from the updated model. To be practical, this approach requires a simple plant model that can be updated quickly with reasonable computational requirements. A recent paper by the authors discussed one way to simplify a feedback controller, by reducing the number of actuators and sensors needed for good performance. The work was done on a tensioned aircraft-style panel excited on one side by TBL flow in a low speed wind tunnel. Actuation was provided by a piezoelectric (PZT) actuator mounted on the center of the panel. For sensing, the responses of four accelerometers, positioned to approximate the response of the first radiation mode of the panel, were summed and fed back through the controller. This single input-single output topology was found to have nearly the same noise reduction performance as a controller with fifteen accelerometers and three PZT patches. This paper extends the previous results by looking at how constrained layer damping (CLD) on a panel can be used to enhance the performance of the feedback controller thus providing a more robust and efficient hybrid active/passive system. The eventual goal is to use the CLD to reduce sound radiation at high frequencies, then implement a very simple, reduced order, low sample rate adaptive controller to attenuate sound radiation at low frequencies. Additionally this added damping smoothes phase transitions over the bandwidth which promotes robustness to natural frequency shifts. Experiments were conducted in a transmission loss facility on a clamped-clamped aluminum panel driven on one side by a loudspeaker. A generalized predictive control (GPC) algorithm, which is suited to online adaptation of its parameters, was used in single input-single output and multiple input-single output configurations. Because this was a preliminary look at the potential

  10. WholeCellSimDB: a hybrid relational/HDF database for whole-cell model predictions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karr, Jonathan R; Phillips, Nolan C; Covert, Markus W

    2014-01-01

    Mechanistic 'whole-cell' models are needed to develop a complete understanding of cell physiology. However, extracting biological insights from whole-cell models requires running and analyzing large numbers of simulations. We developed WholeCellSimDB, a database for organizing whole-cell simulations. WholeCellSimDB was designed to enable researchers to search simulation metadata to identify simulations for further analysis, and quickly slice and aggregate simulation results data. In addition, WholeCellSimDB enables users to share simulations with the broader research community. The database uses a hybrid relational/hierarchical data format architecture to efficiently store and retrieve both simulation setup metadata and results data. WholeCellSimDB provides a graphical Web-based interface to search, browse, plot and export simulations; a JavaScript Object Notation (JSON) Web service to retrieve data for Web-based visualizations; a command-line interface to deposit simulations; and a Python API to retrieve data for advanced analysis. Overall, we believe WholeCellSimDB will help researchers use whole-cell models to advance basic biological science and bioengineering. http://www.wholecellsimdb.org SOURCE CODE REPOSITORY: URL: http://github.com/CovertLab/WholeCellSimDB. © The Author(s) 2014. Published by Oxford University Press.

  11. Body Fat Percentage Prediction Using Intelligent Hybrid Approaches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuehjen E. Shao

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Excess of body fat often leads to obesity. Obesity is typically associated with serious medical diseases, such as cancer, heart disease, and diabetes. Accordingly, knowing the body fat is an extremely important issue since it affects everyone’s health. Although there are several ways to measure the body fat percentage (BFP, the accurate methods are often associated with hassle and/or high costs. Traditional single-stage approaches may use certain body measurements or explanatory variables to predict the BFP. Diverging from existing approaches, this study proposes new intelligent hybrid approaches to obtain fewer explanatory variables, and the proposed forecasting models are able to effectively predict the BFP. The proposed hybrid models consist of multiple regression (MR, artificial neural network (ANN, multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS, and support vector regression (SVR techniques. The first stage of the modeling includes the use of MR and MARS to obtain fewer but more important sets of explanatory variables. In the second stage, the remaining important variables are served as inputs for the other forecasting methods. A real dataset was used to demonstrate the development of the proposed hybrid models. The prediction results revealed that the proposed hybrid schemes outperformed the typical, single-stage forecasting models.

  12. Predictions for Boson-Jet Observables and Fragmentation Function Ratios from a Hybrid Strong/Weak Coupling Model for Jet Quenching

    CERN Document Server

    Casalderrey-Solana, Jorge; Milhano, José Guilherme; Pablos, Daniel; Rajagopal, Krishna

    2016-01-01

    We have previously introduced a hybrid strong/weak coupling model for jet quenching in heavy ion collisions that describes the production and fragmentation of jets at weak coupling, using PYTHIA, and describes the rate at which each parton in the jet shower loses energy as it propagates through the strongly coupled plasma, dE/dx, using an expression computed holographically at strong coupling. The model has a single free parameter that we fit to a single experimental measurement. We then confront our model with experimental data on many other jet observables, focusing here on boson-jet observables, finding that it provides a good description of present jet data. Next, we provide the predictions of our hybrid model for many measurements to come, including those for inclusive jet, dijet, photon-jet and Z-jet observables in heavy ion collisions with energy $\\sqrt{s}=5.02$ ATeV coming soon at the LHC. As the statistical uncertainties on near-future measurements of photon-jet observables are expected to be much sm...

  13. Hybrid robust model based on an improved functional link neural network integrating with partial least square (IFLNN-PLS) and its application to predicting key process variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Yan-Lin; Xu, Yuan; Geng, Zhi-Qiang; Zhu, Qun-Xiong

    2016-03-01

    In this paper, a hybrid robust model based on an improved functional link neural network integrating with partial least square (IFLNN-PLS) is proposed. Firstly, an improved functional link neural network with small norm of expanded weights and high input-output correlation (SNEWHIOC-FLNN) was proposed for enhancing the generalization performance of FLNN. Unlike the traditional FLNN, the expanded variables of the original inputs are not directly used as the inputs in the proposed SNEWHIOC-FLNN model. The original inputs are attached to some small norm of expanded weights. As a result, the correlation coefficient between some of the expanded variables and the outputs is enhanced. The larger the correlation coefficient is, the more relevant the expanded variables tend to be. In the end, the expanded variables with larger correlation coefficient are selected as the inputs to improve the performance of the traditional FLNN. In order to test the proposed SNEWHIOC-FLNN model, three UCI (University of California, Irvine) regression datasets named Housing, Concrete Compressive Strength (CCS), and Yacht Hydro Dynamics (YHD) are selected. Then a hybrid model based on the improved FLNN integrating with partial least square (IFLNN-PLS) was built. In IFLNN-PLS model, the connection weights are calculated using the partial least square method but not the error back propagation algorithm. Lastly, IFLNN-PLS was developed as an intelligent measurement model for accurately predicting the key variables in the Purified Terephthalic Acid (PTA) process and the High Density Polyethylene (HDPE) process. Simulation results illustrated that the IFLNN-PLS could significant improve the prediction performance. Copyright © 2015 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Hybrid rocket engine, theoretical model and experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chelaru, Teodor-Viorel; Mingireanu, Florin

    2011-06-01

    The purpose of this paper is to build a theoretical model for the hybrid rocket engine/motor and to validate it using experimental results. The work approaches the main problems of the hybrid motor: the scalability, the stability/controllability of the operating parameters and the increasing of the solid fuel regression rate. At first, we focus on theoretical models for hybrid rocket motor and compare the results with already available experimental data from various research groups. A primary computation model is presented together with results from a numerical algorithm based on a computational model. We present theoretical predictions for several commercial hybrid rocket motors, having different scales and compare them with experimental measurements of those hybrid rocket motors. Next the paper focuses on tribrid rocket motor concept, which by supplementary liquid fuel injection can improve the thrust controllability. A complementary computation model is also presented to estimate regression rate increase of solid fuel doped with oxidizer. Finally, the stability of the hybrid rocket motor is investigated using Liapunov theory. Stability coefficients obtained are dependent on burning parameters while the stability and command matrixes are identified. The paper presents thoroughly the input data of the model, which ensures the reproducibility of the numerical results by independent researchers.

  15. Hybrid equation/agent-based model of ischemia-induced hyperemia and pressure ulcer formation predicts greater propensity to ulcerate in subjects with spinal cord injury.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexey Solovyev

    Full Text Available Pressure ulcers are costly and life-threatening complications for people with spinal cord injury (SCI. People with SCI also exhibit differential blood flow properties in non-ulcerated skin. We hypothesized that a computer simulation of the pressure ulcer formation process, informed by data regarding skin blood flow and reactive hyperemia in response to pressure, could provide insights into the pathogenesis and effective treatment of post-SCI pressure ulcers. Agent-Based Models (ABM are useful in settings such as pressure ulcers, in which spatial realism is important. Ordinary Differential Equation-based (ODE models are useful when modeling physiological phenomena such as reactive hyperemia. Accordingly, we constructed a hybrid model that combines ODEs related to blood flow along with an ABM of skin injury, inflammation, and ulcer formation. The relationship between pressure and the course of ulcer formation, as well as several other important characteristic patterns of pressure ulcer formation, was demonstrated in this model. The ODE portion of this model was calibrated to data related to blood flow following experimental pressure responses in non-injured human subjects or to data from people with SCI. This model predicted a higher propensity to form ulcers in response to pressure in people with SCI vs. non-injured control subjects, and thus may serve as novel diagnostic platform for post-SCI ulcer formation.

  16. Real Time Hybrid Model Predictive Control for the Current Profile of the Tokamak à Configuration Variable (TCV

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Izaskun Garrido

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Plasma stability is one of the obstacles in the path to the successful operation of fusion devices. Numerical control-oriented codes as it is the case of the widely accepted RZIp may be used within Tokamak simulations. The novelty of this article relies in the hierarchical development of a dynamic control loop. It is based on a current profile Model Predictive Control (MPC algorithm within a multiloop structure, where a MPC is developed at each step so as to improve the Proportional Integral Derivative (PID global scheme. The inner control loop is composed of a PID-based controller that acts over the Multiple Input Multiple Output (MIMO system resulting from the RZIp plasma model of the Tokamak à Configuration Variable (TCV. The coefficients of this PID controller are initially tuned using an eigenmode reduction over the passive structure model. The control action corresponding to the state of interest is then optimized in the outer MPC loop. For the sake of comparison, both the traditionally used PID global controller as well as the multiloop enhanced MPC are applied to the same TCV shot. The results show that the proposed control algorithm presents a superior performance over the conventional PID algorithm in terms of convergence. Furthermore, this enhanced MPC algorithm contributes to extend the discharge length and to overcome the limited power availability restrictions that hinder the performance of advanced tokamaks.

  17. Genome-Wide Prediction of the Performance of Three-Way Hybrids in Barley

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zuo Li

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Predicting the grain yield performance of three-way hybrids is challenging. Three-way crosses are relevant for hybrid breeding in barley ( L. and maize ( L. adapted to East Africa. The main goal of our study was to implement and evaluate genome-wide prediction approaches of the performance of three-way hybrids using data of single-cross hybrids for a scenario in which parental lines of the three-way hybrids originate from three genetically distinct subpopulations. We extended the ridge regression best linear unbiased prediction (RRBLUP and devised a genomic selection model allowing for subpopulation-specific marker effects (GSA-RRBLUP: general and subpopulation-specific additive RRBLUP. Using an empirical barley data set, we showed that applying GSA-RRBLUP tripled the prediction ability of three-way hybrids from 0.095 to 0.308 compared with RRBLUP, modeling one additive effect for all three subpopulations. The experimental findings were further substantiated with computer simulations. Our results emphasize the potential of GSA-RRBLUP to improve genome-wide hybrid prediction of three-way hybrids for scenarios of genetically diverse parental populations. Because of the advantages of the GSA-RRBLUP model in dealing with hybrids from different parental populations, it may also be a promising approach to boost the prediction ability for hybrid breeding programs based on genetically diverse heterotic groups.

  18. Hybrid methods for airframe noise numerical prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Terracol, M.; Manoha, E.; Herrero, C.; Labourasse, E.; Redonnet, S. [ONERA, Department of CFD and Aeroacoustics, BP 72, Chatillon (France); Sagaut, P. [Laboratoire de Modelisation en Mecanique - UPMC/CNRS, Paris (France)

    2005-07-01

    This paper describes some significant steps made towards the numerical simulation of the noise radiated by the high-lift devices of a plane. Since the full numerical simulation of such configuration is still out of reach for present supercomputers, some hybrid strategies have been developed to reduce the overall cost of such simulations. The proposed strategy relies on the coupling of an unsteady nearfield CFD with an acoustic propagation solver based on the resolution of the Euler equations for midfield propagation in an inhomogeneous field, and the use of an integral solver for farfield acoustic predictions. In the first part of this paper, this CFD/CAA coupling strategy is presented. In particular, the numerical method used in the propagation solver is detailed, and two applications of this coupling method to the numerical prediction of the aerodynamic noise of an airfoil are presented. Then, a hybrid RANS/LES method is proposed in order to perform some unsteady simulations of complex noise sources. This method allows for significant reduction of the cost of such a simulation by considerably reducing the extent of the LES zone. This method is described and some results of the numerical simulation of the three-dimensional unsteady flow in the slat cove of a high-lift profile are presented. While these results remain very difficult to validate with experiments on similar configurations, they represent up to now the first 3D computations of this kind of flow. (orig.)

  19. Optimal Real-Time Scheduling for Hybrid Energy Storage Systems and Wind Farms Based on Model Predictive Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meng Xiong

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Energy storage devices are expected to be more frequently implemented in wind farms in near future. In this paper, both pumped hydro and fly wheel storage systems are used to assist a wind farm to smooth the power fluctuations. Due to the significant difference in the response speeds of the two storages types, the wind farm coordination with two types of energy storage is a problem. This paper presents two methods for the coordination problem: a two-level hierarchical model predictive control (MPC method and a single-level MPC method. In the single-level MPC method, only one MPC controller coordinates the wind farm and the two storage systems to follow the grid scheduling. Alternatively, in the two-level MPC method, two MPC controllers are used to coordinate the wind farm and the two storage systems. The structure of two level MPC consists of outer level and inner level MPC. They run alternatively to perform real-time scheduling and then stop, thus obtaining long-term scheduling results and sending some results to the inner level as input. The single-level MPC method performs both long- and short-term scheduling tasks in each interval. The simulation results show that the methods proposed can improve the utilization of wind power and reduce wind power spillage. In addition, the single-level MPC and the two-level MPC are not interchangeable. The single-level MPC has the advantage of following the grid schedule while the two-level MPC can reduce the optimization time by 60%.

  20. Compositional Modelling of Stochastic Hybrid Systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Strubbe, S.N.

    2005-01-01

    In this thesis we present a modelling framework for compositional modelling of stochastic hybrid systems. Hybrid systems consist of a combination of continuous and discrete dynamics. The state space of a hybrid system is hybrid in the sense that it consists of a continuous component and a discrete

  1. Hybrid dynamics for currency modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Theodosopoulos, Ted; Trifunovic, Alex

    2006-01-01

    We present a simple hybrid dynamical model as a tool to investigate behavioral strategies based on trend following. The multiplicative symbolic dynamics are generated using a lognormal diffusion model for the at-the-money implied volatility term structure. Thus, are model exploits information from derivative markets to obtain qualititative properties of the return distribution for the underlier. We apply our model to the JPY-USD exchange rate and the corresponding 1mo., 3mo., 6mo. and 1yr. im...

  2. A Novel Hybrid Similarity Calculation Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoping Fan

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper addresses the problems of similarity calculation in the traditional recommendation algorithms of nearest neighbor collaborative filtering, especially the failure in describing dynamic user preference. Proceeding from the perspective of solving the problem of user interest drift, a new hybrid similarity calculation model is proposed in this paper. This model consists of two parts, on the one hand the model uses the function fitting to describe users’ rating behaviors and their rating preferences, and on the other hand it employs the Random Forest algorithm to take user attribute features into account. Furthermore, the paper combines the two parts to build a new hybrid similarity calculation model for user recommendation. Experimental results show that, for data sets of different size, the model’s prediction precision is higher than the traditional recommendation algorithms.

  3. A hybrid scheme for real-time prediction of bus trajectories

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fadaei, Masoud; Cats, O.; Bhaskar, Ashish

    2016-01-01

    The uncertainty associated with public transport services can be partially counteracted by developing real-time models to predict downstream service conditions. In this study, a hybrid approach for predicting bus trajectories by integrating multiple predictors is proposed. The prediction model

  4. Hybrid discrete choice models: Gained insights versus increasing effort

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mariel, Petr; Meyerhoff, Jürgen

    2016-01-01

    Hybrid choice models expand the standard models in discrete choice modelling by incorporating psychological factors as latent variables. They could therefore provide further insights into choice processes and underlying taste heterogeneity but the costs of estimating these models often significantly increase. This paper aims at comparing the results from a hybrid choice model and a classical random parameter logit. Point of departure for this analysis is whether researchers and practitioners should add hybrid choice models to their suite of models routinely estimated. Our comparison reveals, in line with the few prior studies, that hybrid models gain in efficiency by the inclusion of additional information. The use of one of the two proposed approaches, however, depends on the objective of the analysis. If disentangling preference heterogeneity is most important, hybrid model seems to be preferable. If the focus is on predictive power, a standard random parameter logit model might be the better choice. Finally, we give recommendations for an adequate use of hybrid choice models based on known principles of elementary scientific inference. - Highlights: • The paper compares performance of a Hybrid Choice Model (HCM) and a classical Random Parameter Logit (RPL) model. • The HCM indeed provides insights regarding preference heterogeneity not gained from the RPL. • The RPL has similar predictive power as the HCM in our data. • The costs of estimating HCM seem to be justified when learning more on taste heterogeneity is a major study objective.

  5. Hybrid discrete choice models: Gained insights versus increasing effort

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mariel, Petr, E-mail: petr.mariel@ehu.es [UPV/EHU, Economía Aplicada III, Avda. Lehendakari Aguire, 83, 48015 Bilbao (Spain); Meyerhoff, Jürgen [Institute for Landscape Architecture and Environmental Planning, Technical University of Berlin, D-10623 Berlin, Germany and The Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Duesternbrooker Weg 120, 24105 Kiel (Germany)

    2016-10-15

    Hybrid choice models expand the standard models in discrete choice modelling by incorporating psychological factors as latent variables. They could therefore provide further insights into choice processes and underlying taste heterogeneity but the costs of estimating these models often significantly increase. This paper aims at comparing the results from a hybrid choice model and a classical random parameter logit. Point of departure for this analysis is whether researchers and practitioners should add hybrid choice models to their suite of models routinely estimated. Our comparison reveals, in line with the few prior studies, that hybrid models gain in efficiency by the inclusion of additional information. The use of one of the two proposed approaches, however, depends on the objective of the analysis. If disentangling preference heterogeneity is most important, hybrid model seems to be preferable. If the focus is on predictive power, a standard random parameter logit model might be the better choice. Finally, we give recommendations for an adequate use of hybrid choice models based on known principles of elementary scientific inference. - Highlights: • The paper compares performance of a Hybrid Choice Model (HCM) and a classical Random Parameter Logit (RPL) model. • The HCM indeed provides insights regarding preference heterogeneity not gained from the RPL. • The RPL has similar predictive power as the HCM in our data. • The costs of estimating HCM seem to be justified when learning more on taste heterogeneity is a major study objective.

  6. Prediction of settled water turbidity and optimal coagulant dosage in drinking water treatment plant using a hybrid model of k-means clustering and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Chan Moon; Parnichkun, Manukid

    2017-11-01

    Coagulation is an important process in drinking water treatment to attain acceptable treated water quality. However, the determination of coagulant dosage is still a challenging task for operators, because coagulation is nonlinear and complicated process. Feedback control to achieve the desired treated water quality is difficult due to lengthy process time. In this research, a hybrid of k-means clustering and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system ( k-means-ANFIS) is proposed for the settled water turbidity prediction and the optimal coagulant dosage determination using full-scale historical data. To build a well-adaptive model to different process states from influent water, raw water quality data are classified into four clusters according to its properties by a k-means clustering technique. The sub-models are developed individually on the basis of each clustered data set. Results reveal that the sub-models constructed by a hybrid k-means-ANFIS perform better than not only a single ANFIS model, but also seasonal models by artificial neural network (ANN). The finally completed model consisting of sub-models shows more accurate and consistent prediction ability than a single model of ANFIS and a single model of ANN based on all five evaluation indices. Therefore, the hybrid model of k-means-ANFIS can be employed as a robust tool for managing both treated water quality and production costs simultaneously.

  7. Model Reduction of Hybrid Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shaker, Hamid Reza

    gramians. Generalized gramians are the solutions to the observability and controllability Lyapunov inequalities. In the first framework the projection matrices are found based on the common generalized gramians. This framework preserves the stability of the original switched system for all switching...... is guaranteed to be preserved for arbitrary switching signal. To compute the common generalized gramians linear matrix inequalities (LMI’s) need to be solved. These LMI’s are not always feasible. In order to solve the problem of conservatism, the second framework is presented. In this method the projection......High-Technological solutions of today are characterized by complex dynamical models. A lot of these models have inherent hybrid/switching structure. Hybrid/switched systems are powerful models for distributed embedded systems design where discrete controls are applied to continuous processes...

  8. Improved hybrid optimization algorithm for 3D protein structure prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Changjun; Hou, Caixia; Wei, Xiaopeng; Zhang, Qiang

    2014-07-01

    A new improved hybrid optimization algorithm - PGATS algorithm, which is based on toy off-lattice model, is presented for dealing with three-dimensional protein structure prediction problems. The algorithm combines the particle swarm optimization (PSO), genetic algorithm (GA), and tabu search (TS) algorithms. Otherwise, we also take some different improved strategies. The factor of stochastic disturbance is joined in the particle swarm optimization to improve the search ability; the operations of crossover and mutation that are in the genetic algorithm are changed to a kind of random liner method; at last tabu search algorithm is improved by appending a mutation operator. Through the combination of a variety of strategies and algorithms, the protein structure prediction (PSP) in a 3D off-lattice model is achieved. The PSP problem is an NP-hard problem, but the problem can be attributed to a global optimization problem of multi-extremum and multi-parameters. This is the theoretical principle of the hybrid optimization algorithm that is proposed in this paper. The algorithm combines local search and global search, which overcomes the shortcoming of a single algorithm, giving full play to the advantage of each algorithm. In the current universal standard sequences, Fibonacci sequences and real protein sequences are certified. Experiments show that the proposed new method outperforms single algorithms on the accuracy of calculating the protein sequence energy value, which is proved to be an effective way to predict the structure of proteins.

  9. Customer churn prediction using a hybrid method and censored data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Reza Tavakkoli-Moghaddam

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Customers are believed to be the main part of any organization’s assets and customer retention as well as customer churn management are important responsibilities of organizations. In today’s competitive environment, organization must do their best to retain their existing customers since attracting new customers cost significantly more than taking care of existing ones. In this paper, we present a hybrid method based on neural network and Cox regression analysis where neural network is used for outlier data and Cox regression method is implemented for prediction of future events. The proposed model of this paper has been implemented on some data and the results are compared based on five criteria including prediction accuracy, errors’ type I and II, root mean square error and mean absolute deviation. The preliminary results indicate that the proposed model of this paper performs better than alternative methods.

  10. Beam-column joint shear prediction using hybridized deep learning neural network with genetic algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mundher Yaseen, Zaher; Abdulmohsin Afan, Haitham; Tran, Minh-Tung

    2018-04-01

    Scientifically evidenced that beam-column joints are a critical point in the reinforced concrete (RC) structure under the fluctuation loads effects. In this novel hybrid data-intelligence model developed to predict the joint shear behavior of exterior beam-column structure frame. The hybrid data-intelligence model is called genetic algorithm integrated with deep learning neural network model (GA-DLNN). The genetic algorithm is used as prior modelling phase for the input approximation whereas the DLNN predictive model is used for the prediction phase. To demonstrate this structural problem, experimental data is collected from the literature that defined the dimensional and specimens’ properties. The attained findings evidenced the efficitveness of the hybrid GA-DLNN in modelling beam-column joint shear problem. In addition, the accurate prediction achived with less input variables owing to the feasibility of the evolutionary phase.

  11. Hybrid model of steam boiler

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rusinowski, Henryk; Stanek, Wojciech

    2010-01-01

    In the case of big energy boilers energy efficiency is usually determined with the application of the indirect method. Flue gas losses and unburnt combustible losses have a significant influence on the boiler's efficiency. To estimate these losses the knowledge of the operating parameters influence on the flue gases temperature and the content of combustible particles in the solid combustion products is necessary. A hybrid model of a boiler developed with the application of both analytical modelling and artificial intelligence is described. The analytical part of the model includes the balance equations. The empirical models express the dependence of the flue gas temperature and the mass fraction of the unburnt combustibles in solid combustion products on the operating parameters of a boiler. The empirical models have been worked out by means of neural and regression modelling.

  12. Predictive cruise control in hybrid electric vehicles

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Keulen, T. van; Naus, M.J.G.; Jager, B. de; Molengraft, G.J.L. van de; Steinbuch, M.; Aneke, N.P.I.

    2009-01-01

    Deceleration rates have considerable influence on the fuel economy of hybrid electric vehicles. Given the vehicle characteristics and actual/measured operating conditions, as well as upcoming route information, optimal velocity trajectories can be constructed that maximize energy recovery. To

  13. HAMDA: Hybrid Approach for MiRNA-Disease Association prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Xing; Niu, Ya-Wei; Wang, Guang-Hui; Yan, Gui-Ying

    2017-12-01

    For decades, enormous experimental researches have collectively indicated that microRNA (miRNA) could play indispensable roles in many critical biological processes and thus also the pathogenesis of human complex diseases. Whereas the resource and time cost required in traditional biology experiments are expensive, more and more attentions have been paid to the development of effective and feasible computational methods for predicting potential associations between disease and miRNA. In this study, we developed a computational model of Hybrid Approach for MiRNA-Disease Association prediction (HAMDA), which involved the hybrid graph-based recommendation algorithm, to reveal novel miRNA-disease associations by integrating experimentally verified miRNA-disease associations, disease semantic similarity, miRNA functional similarity, and Gaussian interaction profile kernel similarity into a recommendation algorithm. HAMDA took not only network structure and information propagation but also node attribution into consideration, resulting in a satisfactory prediction performance. Specifically, HAMDA obtained AUCs of 0.9035 and 0.8395 in the frameworks of global and local leave-one-out cross validation, respectively. Meanwhile, HAMDA also achieved good performance with AUC of 0.8965 ± 0.0012 in 5-fold cross validation. Additionally, we conducted case studies about three important human cancers for performance evaluation of HAMDA. As a result, 90% (Lymphoma), 86% (Prostate Cancer) and 92% (Kidney Cancer) of top 50 predicted miRNAs were confirmed by recent experiment literature, which showed the reliable prediction ability of HAMDA. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Deriving simulators for hybrid Chi models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beek, van D.A.; Man, K.L.; Reniers, M.A.; Rooda, J.E.; Schiffelers, R.R.H.

    2006-01-01

    The hybrid Chi language is formalism for modeling, simulation and verification of hybrid systems. The formal semantics of hybrid Chi allows the definition of provably correct implementations for simulation, verification and realtime control. This paper discusses the principles of deriving an

  15. Predictive control strategies for energy saving of hybrid electric vehicles based on traffic light information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kaijiang YU

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available As the conventional control method for hybrid electric vehicle doesn’t consider the effect of known traffic light information on the vehicle energy management, this paper proposes a model predictive control intelligent optimization strategies based on traffic light information for hybrid electric vehicles. By building the simplified model of the hybrid electric vehicle and adopting the continuation/generalized minimum residual method, the model prediction problem is solved. The simulation is conducted by using MATLAB/Simulink platform. The simulation results show the effectiveness of the proposed model of the traffic light information, and that the proposed model predictive control method can improve fuel economy and the real-time control performance significantly. The research conclusions show that the proposed control strategy can achieve optimal control of the vehicle trajectory, significantly improving fuel economy of the vehicle, and meet the system requirements for the real-time optimal control.

  16. Univariate Time Series Prediction of Solar Power Using a Hybrid Wavelet-ARMA-NARX Prediction Method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nazaripouya, Hamidreza; Wang, Yubo; Chu, Chi-Cheng; Pota, Hemanshu; Gadh, Rajit

    2016-05-02

    This paper proposes a new hybrid method for super short-term solar power prediction. Solar output power usually has a complex, nonstationary, and nonlinear characteristic due to intermittent and time varying behavior of solar radiance. In addition, solar power dynamics is fast and is inertia less. An accurate super short-time prediction is required to compensate for the fluctuations and reduce the impact of solar power penetration on the power system. The objective is to predict one step-ahead solar power generation based only on historical solar power time series data. The proposed method incorporates discrete wavelet transform (DWT), Auto-Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) models, and Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN), while the RNN architecture is based on Nonlinear Auto-Regressive models with eXogenous inputs (NARX). The wavelet transform is utilized to decompose the solar power time series into a set of richer-behaved forming series for prediction. ARMA model is employed as a linear predictor while NARX is used as a nonlinear pattern recognition tool to estimate and compensate the error of wavelet-ARMA prediction. The proposed method is applied to the data captured from UCLA solar PV panels and the results are compared with some of the common and most recent solar power prediction methods. The results validate the effectiveness of the proposed approach and show a considerable improvement in the prediction precision.

  17. Development of a partial least squares-artificial neural network (PLS-ANN) hybrid model for the prediction of consumer liking scores of ready-to-drink green tea beverages.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Peigen; Low, Mei Yin; Zhou, Weibiao

    2018-01-01

    In order to develop products that would be preferred by consumers, the effects of the chemical compositions of ready-to-drink green tea beverages on consumer liking were studied through regression analyses. Green tea model systems were prepared by dosing solutions of 0.1% green tea extract with differing concentrations of eight flavour keys deemed to be important for green tea aroma and taste, based on a D-optimal experimental design, before undergoing commercial sterilisation. Sensory evaluation of the green tea model system was carried out using an untrained consumer panel to obtain hedonic liking scores of the samples. Regression models were subsequently trained to objectively predict the consumer liking scores of the green tea model systems. A linear partial least squares (PLS) regression model was developed to describe the effects of the eight flavour keys on consumer liking, with a coefficient of determination (R 2 ) of 0.733, and a root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 3.53%. The PLS model was further augmented with an artificial neural network (ANN) to establish a PLS-ANN hybrid model. The established hybrid model was found to give a better prediction of consumer liking scores, based on its R 2 (0.875) and RMSE (2.41%). Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Predictive modeling of complications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osorio, Joseph A; Scheer, Justin K; Ames, Christopher P

    2016-09-01

    Predictive analytic algorithms are designed to identify patterns in the data that allow for accurate predictions without the need for a hypothesis. Therefore, predictive modeling can provide detailed and patient-specific information that can be readily applied when discussing the risks of surgery with a patient. There are few studies using predictive modeling techniques in the adult spine surgery literature. These types of studies represent the beginning of the use of predictive analytics in spine surgery outcomes. We will discuss the advancements in the field of spine surgery with respect to predictive analytics, the controversies surrounding the technique, and the future directions.

  19. A Hybrid Lumped Parameters/Finite Element/Boundary Element Model to Predict the Vibroacoustic Characteristics of an Axial Piston Pump

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shaogan Ye

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Low noise axial piston pumps become the rapid increasing demand in modern hydraulic fluid power systems. This paper proposes a systematic approach to simulate the vibroacoustic characteristics of an axial piston pump using a hybrid lumped parameters/finite element/boundary element (LP/FE/BE model, and large amount of experimental work was performed to validate the model. The LP model was developed to calculate the excitation forces and was validated by a comparison of outlet flow ripples. The FE model was developed to calculate the vibration of the pump, in which the modeling of main friction pairs using different spring elements was presented in detail, and the FE model was validated using experimental modal analysis and measured vibrations. The BE model was used to calculate the noise emitted from the pump, and a measurement of sound pressure level at representative field points in a hemianechoic chamber was conducted to validate the BE model. Comparisons between the simulated and measured results show that the developed LP/FE/BE model is effective in capturing the vibroacoustic characteristics of the pump. The presented approach can be extended to other types of fluid power components and contributes to the development of quieter fluid power systems.

  20. A novel hybrid evidential belief function-based fuzzy logic model in spatial prediction of rainfall-induced shallow landslides in the Lang Son city area (Vietnam

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dieu Tien Bui

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The main objective of this study is to investigate potential application of an integrated evidential belief function (EBF-based fuzzy logic model for spatial prediction of rainfall-induced shallow landslides in the Lang Son city area (Vietnam. First, a landslide inventory map was constructed from various sources. Then the landslide inventory map was randomly partitioned as a ratio of 70/30 for training and validation of the models, respectively. Second, six landslide conditioning factors (slope angle, slope aspect, lithology, distance to faults, soil type, land use were prepared and fuzzy membership values for these factors classes were estimated using the EBF. Subsequently, fuzzy operators were used to generate landslide susceptibility maps. Finally, the susceptibility maps were validated and compared using the validation dataset. The results show that the lowest prediction capability is the fuzzy SUM (76.6%. The prediction capability is almost the same for the fuzzy PRODUCT and fuzzy GAMMA models (79.6%. Compared to the frequency-ratio based fuzzy logic models, the EBF-based fuzzy logic models showed better result in both the success rate and prediction rate. The results from this study may be useful for local planner in areas prone to landslides. The modelling approach can be applied for other areas.

  1. Archaeological predictive model set.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-03-01

    This report is the documentation for Task 7 of the Statewide Archaeological Predictive Model Set. The goal of this project is to : develop a set of statewide predictive models to assist the planning of transportation projects. PennDOT is developing t...

  2. Hybridization properties of long nucleic acid probes for detection of variable target sequences, and development of a hybridization prediction algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Öhrmalm, Christina; Jobs, Magnus; Eriksson, Ronnie; Golbob, Sultan; Elfaitouri, Amal; Benachenhou, Farid; Strømme, Maria; Blomberg, Jonas

    2010-01-01

    One of the main problems in nucleic acid-based techniques for detection of infectious agents, such as influenza viruses, is that of nucleic acid sequence variation. DNA probes, 70-nt long, some including the nucleotide analog deoxyribose-Inosine (dInosine), were analyzed for hybridization tolerance to different amounts and distributions of mismatching bases, e.g. synonymous mutations, in target DNA. Microsphere-linked 70-mer probes were hybridized in 3M TMAC buffer to biotinylated single-stranded (ss) DNA for subsequent analysis in a Luminex® system. When mismatches interrupted contiguous matching stretches of 6 nt or longer, it had a strong impact on hybridization. Contiguous matching stretches are more important than the same number of matching nucleotides separated by mismatches into several regions. dInosine, but not 5-nitroindole, substitutions at mismatching positions stabilized hybridization remarkably well, comparable to N (4-fold) wobbles in the same positions. In contrast to shorter probes, 70-nt probes with judiciously placed dInosine substitutions and/or wobble positions were remarkably mismatch tolerant, with preserved specificity. An algorithm, NucZip, was constructed to model the nucleation and zipping phases of hybridization, integrating both local and distant binding contributions. It predicted hybridization more exactly than previous algorithms, and has the potential to guide the design of variation-tolerant yet specific probes. PMID:20864443

  3. Fluid and hybrid models for streamers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonaventura, Zdeněk

    2016-09-01

    Streamers are contracted ionizing waves with self-generated field enhancement that propagate into a low-ionized medium exposed to high electric field leaving filamentary trails of plasma behind. The widely used model to study streamer dynamics is based on drift-diffusion equations for electrons and ions, assuming local field approximation, coupled with Poisson's equation. For problems where presence of energetic electrons become important a fluid approach needs to be extended by a particle model, accompanied also with Monte Carlo Collision technique, that takes care of motion of these electrons. A combined fluid-particle approach is used to study an influence of surface emission processes on a fast-pulsed dielectric barrier discharge in air at atmospheric pressure. It is found that fluid-only model predicts substantially faster reignition dynamics compared to coupled fluid-particle model. Furthermore, a hybrid model can be created in which the population of electrons is divided in the energy space into two distinct groups: (1) low energy `bulk' electrons that are treated with fluid model, and (2) high energy `beam' electrons, followed as particles. The hybrid model is then capable not only to deal with streamer discharges in laboratory conditions, but also allows us to study electron acceleration in streamer zone of lighting leaders. There, the production of fast electrons from streamers is investigated, since these (runaway) electrons act as seeds for the relativistic runaway electron avalanche (RREA) mechanism, important for high-energy atmospheric physics phenomena. Results suggest that high energy electrons effect the streamer propagation, namely the velocity, the peak electric field, and thus also the production rate of runaway electrons. This work has been supported by the Czech Science Foundation research project 15-04023S.

  4. Wind power prediction models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, R.; Mcginness, H.

    1976-01-01

    Investigations were performed to predict the power available from the wind at the Goldstone, California, antenna site complex. The background for power prediction was derived from a statistical evaluation of available wind speed data records at this location and at nearby locations similarly situated within the Mojave desert. In addition to a model for power prediction over relatively long periods of time, an interim simulation model that produces sample wind speeds is described. The interim model furnishes uncorrelated sample speeds at hourly intervals that reproduce the statistical wind distribution at Goldstone. A stochastic simulation model to provide speed samples representative of both the statistical speed distributions and correlations is also discussed.

  5. A Hybrid Prognostic Approach for Remaining Useful Life Prediction of Lithium-Ion Batteries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wen-An Yang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Lithium-ion battery is a core component of many systems such as satellite, spacecraft, and electric vehicles and its failure can lead to reduced capability, downtime, and even catastrophic breakdowns. Remaining useful life (RUL prediction of lithium-ion batteries before the future failure event is extremely crucial for proactive maintenance/safety actions. This study proposes a hybrid prognostic approach that can predict the RUL of degraded lithium-ion batteries using physical laws and data-driven modeling simultaneously. In this hybrid prognostic approach, the relevant vectors obtained with the selective kernel ensemble-based relevance vector machine (RVM learning algorithm are fitted to the physical degradation model, which is then extrapolated to failure threshold for estimating the RUL of the lithium-ion battery of interest. The experimental results indicated that the proposed hybrid prognostic approach can accurately predict the RUL of degraded lithium-ion batteries. Empirical comparisons show that the proposed hybrid prognostic approach using the selective kernel ensemble-based RVM learning algorithm performs better than the hybrid prognostic approaches using the popular learning algorithms of feedforward artificial neural networks (ANNs like the conventional backpropagation (BP algorithm and support vector machines (SVMs. In addition, an investigation is also conducted to identify the effects of RVM learning algorithm on the proposed hybrid prognostic approach.

  6. Combination of equilibrium models and hybrid life cycle-input–output analysis to predict the environmental impacts of energy policy scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Igos, Elorri; Rugani, Benedetto; Rege, Sameer; Benetto, Enrico; Drouet, Laurent; Zachary, Daniel S.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • The environmental impacts of two energy policy scenarios in Luxembourg are assessed. • Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) and Partial Equilibrium (PE) models are used. • Results from coupling of CGE and PE are integrated in hybrid Life Cycle Assessment. • Impacts due to energy related production and imports are likely to grow over time. • Carbon mitigation policies seem to not substantially decrease the impacts’ trend. - Abstract: Nowadays, many countries adopt an active agenda to mitigate the impact of greenhouse gas emissions by moving towards less polluting energy generation technologies. The environmental costs, directly or indirectly generated to achieve such a challenging objective, remain however largely underexplored. Until now, research has focused either on pure economic approaches such as Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) and partial equilibrium (PE) models, or on (physical) energy supply scenarios. These latter could be used to evaluate the environmental impacts of various energy saving or cleaner technologies via Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methodology. These modelling efforts have, however, been pursued in isolation, without exploring the possible complementarities and synergies. In this study, we have undertaken a practical combination of these approaches into a common framework: on the one hand, by coupling a CGE with a PE model, and, on the other hand, by linking the outcomes from the coupling with a hybrid input–output−process based life cycle inventory. The methodological framework aimed at assessing the environmental consequences of two energy policy scenarios in Luxembourg between 2010 and 2025. The study highlights the potential of coupling CGE and PE models but also the related methodological difficulties (e.g. small number of available technologies in Luxembourg, intrinsic limitations of the two approaches, etc.). The assessment shows both environmental synergies and trade-offs due to the implementation of

  7. Hybrid Modeling Improves Health and Performance Monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-01-01

    Scientific Monitoring Inc. was awarded a Phase I Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) project by NASA's Dryden Flight Research Center to create a new, simplified health-monitoring approach for flight vehicles and flight equipment. The project developed a hybrid physical model concept that provided a structured approach to simplifying complex design models for use in health monitoring, allowing the output or performance of the equipment to be compared to what the design models predicted, so that deterioration or impending failure could be detected before there would be an impact on the equipment's operational capability. Based on the original modeling technology, Scientific Monitoring released I-Trend, a commercial health- and performance-monitoring software product named for its intelligent trending, diagnostics, and prognostics capabilities, as part of the company's complete ICEMS (Intelligent Condition-based Equipment Management System) suite of monitoring and advanced alerting software. I-Trend uses the hybrid physical model to better characterize the nature of health or performance alarms that result in "no fault found" false alarms. Additionally, the use of physical principles helps I-Trend identify problems sooner. I-Trend technology is currently in use in several commercial aviation programs, and the U.S. Air Force recently tapped Scientific Monitoring to develop next-generation engine health-management software for monitoring its fleet of jet engines. Scientific Monitoring has continued the original NASA work, this time under a Phase III SBIR contract with a joint NASA-Pratt & Whitney aviation security program on propulsion-controlled aircraft under missile-damaged aircraft conditions.

  8. Prediction of temperature and HAZ in thermal-based processes with Gaussian heat source by a hybrid GA-ANN model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fazli Shahri, Hamid Reza; Mahdavinejad, Ramezanali

    2018-02-01

    Thermal-based processes with Gaussian heat source often produce excessive temperature which can impose thermally-affected layers in specimens. Therefore, the temperature distribution and Heat Affected Zone (HAZ) of materials are two critical factors which are influenced by different process parameters. Measurement of the HAZ thickness and temperature distribution within the processes are not only difficult but also expensive. This research aims at finding a valuable knowledge on these factors by prediction of the process through a novel combinatory model. In this study, an integrated Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and genetic algorithm (GA) was used to predict the HAZ and temperature distribution of the specimens. To end this, a series of full factorial design of experiments were conducted by applying a Gaussian heat flux on Ti-6Al-4 V at first, then the temperature of the specimen was measured by Infrared thermography. The HAZ width of each sample was investigated through measuring the microhardness. Secondly, the experimental data was used to create a GA-ANN model. The efficiency of GA in design and optimization of the architecture of ANN was investigated. The GA was used to determine the optimal number of neurons in hidden layer, learning rate and momentum coefficient of both output and hidden layers of ANN. Finally, the reliability of models was assessed according to the experimental results and statistical indicators. The results demonstrated that the combinatory model predicted the HAZ and temperature more effective than a trial-and-error ANN model.

  9. Evaluation of models generated via hybrid evolutionary algorithms ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2016-04-02

    Apr 2, 2016 ... Evaluation of models generated via hybrid evolutionary algorithms for the prediction of Microcystis ... evolutionary algorithms (HEA) proved to be highly applica- ble to the hypertrophic reservoirs of South Africa. .... discovered and optimised using a large-scale parallel computational device and relevant soft-.

  10. A hybrid model for electricity spot prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anderson, C.L.D.

    2004-01-01

    Electricity prices were highly regulated prior to the deregulation of the electric power industry. Prices were predictable, allowing generators and wholesalers to calculate their production costs and revenues. With deregulation, electricity has become the most volatile of all commodities. Electricity must be consumed as soon as it is generated due to the inability to store it in any sufficient quantity. Economic uncertainty exists because the supply of electricity cannot shift as quickly as the demand, which is highly variable. When demand increases quickly, the price must respond. Therefore, price spikes occur that are orders of magnitude higher than the base electricity price. This paper presents a robust and realistic model for spot market electricity prices used to manage risk in volatile markets. The model is a hybrid of a top down data driven method commonly used for financial applications, and a bottom up system driven method commonly used in regulated electricity markets. The advantage of the model is that it incorporates primary system drivers and demonstrates their effects on final prices. The 4 primary modules of the model are: (1) a model for forced outages, (2) a model for maintenance outages, (3) an electrical load model, and (4) a price model which combines the results of the previous 3 models. The performance of each model was tested. The forced outage model is the first of its kind to simulate the system on an aggregate basis using Weibull distributions. The overall spot price model was calibrated to, and tested with, data from the electricity market in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Maryland. The model performed well in simulated market prices and adapted readily to changing system conditions and new electricity markets. This study examined the pricing of derivative contracts on electrical power. It also compared a range of portfolio scenarios using a Cash Flow at Risk approach

  11. A hybrid model for electricity spot prices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, C.L.D.

    2004-07-01

    Electricity prices were highly regulated prior to the deregulation of the electric power industry. Prices were predictable, allowing generators and wholesalers to calculate their production costs and revenues. With deregulation, electricity has become the most volatile of all commodities. Electricity must be consumed as soon as it is generated due to the inability to store it in any sufficient quantity. Economic uncertainty exists because the supply of electricity cannot shift as quickly as the demand, which is highly variable. When demand increases quickly, the price must respond. Therefore, price spikes occur that are orders of magnitude higher than the base electricity price. This paper presents a robust and realistic model for spot market electricity prices used to manage risk in volatile markets. The model is a hybrid of a top down data driven method commonly used for financial applications, and a bottom up system driven method commonly used in regulated electricity markets. The advantage of the model is that it incorporates primary system drivers and demonstrates their effects on final prices. The 4 primary modules of the model are: (1) a model for forced outages, (2) a model for maintenance outages, (3) an electrical load model, and (4) a price model which combines the results of the previous 3 models. The performance of each model was tested. The forced outage model is the first of its kind to simulate the system on an aggregate basis using Weibull distributions. The overall spot price model was calibrated to, and tested with, data from the electricity market in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Maryland. The model performed well in simulated market prices and adapted readily to changing system conditions and new electricity markets. This study examined the pricing of derivative contracts on electrical power. It also compared a range of portfolio scenarios using a Cash Flow at Risk approach.

  12. A study on the predictability of acute lymphoblastic leukaemia response to treatment using a hybrid oncosimulator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ouzounoglou, Eleftherios; Kolokotroni, Eleni; Stanulla, Martin; Stamatakos, Georgios S

    2018-02-06

    Efficient use of Virtual Physiological Human (VPH)-type models for personalized treatment response prediction purposes requires a precise model parameterization. In the case where the available personalized data are not sufficient to fully determine the parameter values, an appropriate prediction task may be followed. This study, a hybrid combination of computational optimization and machine learning methods with an already developed mechanistic model called the acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) Oncosimulator which simulates ALL progression and treatment response is presented. These methods are used in order for the parameters of the model to be estimated for retrospective cases and to be predicted for prospective ones. The parameter value prediction is based on a regression model trained on retrospective cases. The proposed Hybrid ALL Oncosimulator system has been evaluated when predicting the pre-phase treatment outcome in ALL. This has been correctly achieved for a significant percentage of patient cases tested (approx. 70% of patients). Moreover, the system is capable of denying the classification of cases for which the results are not trustworthy enough. In that case, potentially misleading predictions for a number of patients are avoided, while the classification accuracy for the remaining patient cases further increases. The results obtained are particularly encouraging regarding the soundness of the proposed methodologies and their relevance to the process of achieving clinical applicability of the proposed Hybrid ALL Oncosimulator system and VPH models in general.

  13. Predicting Energy Consumption for Potential Effective Use in Hybrid Vehicle Powertrain Management Using Driver Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magnuson, Brian

    A proof-of-concept software-in-the-loop study is performed to assess the accuracy of predicted net and charge-gaining energy consumption for potential effective use in optimizing powertrain management of hybrid vehicles. With promising results of improving fuel efficiency of a thermostatic control strategy for a series, plug-ing, hybrid-electric vehicle by 8.24%, the route and speed prediction machine learning algorithms are redesigned and implemented for real- world testing in a stand-alone C++ code-base to ingest map data, learn and predict driver habits, and store driver data for fast startup and shutdown of the controller or computer used to execute the compiled algorithm. Speed prediction is performed using a multi-layer, multi-input, multi- output neural network using feed-forward prediction and gradient descent through back- propagation training. Route prediction utilizes a Hidden Markov Model with a recurrent forward algorithm for prediction and multi-dimensional hash maps to store state and state distribution constraining associations between atomic road segments and end destinations. Predicted energy is calculated using the predicted time-series speed and elevation profile over the predicted route and the road-load equation. Testing of the code-base is performed over a known road network spanning 24x35 blocks on the south hill of Spokane, Washington. A large set of training routes are traversed once to add randomness to the route prediction algorithm, and a subset of the training routes, testing routes, are traversed to assess the accuracy of the net and charge-gaining predicted energy consumption. Each test route is traveled a random number of times with varying speed conditions from traffic and pedestrians to add randomness to speed prediction. Prediction data is stored and analyzed in a post process Matlab script. The aggregated results and analysis of all traversals of all test routes reflect the performance of the Driver Prediction algorithm. The

  14. Inverse and Predictive Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Syracuse, Ellen Marie [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-09-27

    The LANL Seismo-Acoustic team has a strong capability in developing data-driven models that accurately predict a variety of observations. These models range from the simple – one-dimensional models that are constrained by a single dataset and can be used for quick and efficient predictions – to the complex – multidimensional models that are constrained by several types of data and result in more accurate predictions. Team members typically build models of geophysical characteristics of Earth and source distributions at scales of 1 to 1000s of km, the techniques used are applicable for other types of physical characteristics at an even greater range of scales. The following cases provide a snapshot of some of the modeling work done by the Seismo- Acoustic team at LANL.

  15. HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM): Global

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Global HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) and U.S. Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (NCODA) 3-day, daily forecast at approximately 9-km (1/12-degree)...

  16. Travelling Waves in Hybrid Chemotaxis Models

    KAUST Repository

    Franz, Benjamin

    2013-12-18

    Hybrid models of chemotaxis combine agent-based models of cells with partial differential equation models of extracellular chemical signals. In this paper, travelling wave properties of hybrid models of bacterial chemotaxis are investigated. Bacteria are modelled using an agent-based (individual-based) approach with internal dynamics describing signal transduction. In addition to the chemotactic behaviour of the bacteria, the individual-based model also includes cell proliferation and death. Cells consume the extracellular nutrient field (chemoattractant), which is modelled using a partial differential equation. Mesoscopic and macroscopic equations representing the behaviour of the hybrid model are derived and the existence of travelling wave solutions for these models is established. It is shown that cell proliferation is necessary for the existence of non-transient (stationary) travelling waves in hybrid models. Additionally, a numerical comparison between the wave speeds of the continuum models and the hybrid models shows good agreement in the case of weak chemotaxis and qualitative agreement for the strong chemotaxis case. In the case of slow cell adaptation, we detect oscillating behaviour of the wave, which cannot be explained by mean-field approximations. © 2013 Society for Mathematical Biology.

  17. A hybrid measure-correlate-predict method for long-term wind condition assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Jie; Chowdhury, Souma; Messac, Achille; Hodge, Bri-Mathias

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • A hybrid measure-correlate-predict (MCP) methodology with greater accuracy is developed. • Three sets of performance metrics are proposed to evaluate the hybrid MCP method. • Both wind speed and direction are considered in the hybrid MCP method. • The best combination of MCP algorithms is determined. • The developed hybrid MCP method is uniquely helpful for long-term wind resource assessment. - Abstract: This paper develops a hybrid measure-correlate-predict (MCP) strategy to assess long-term wind resource variations at a farm site. The hybrid MCP method uses recorded data from multiple reference stations to estimate long-term wind conditions at a target wind plant site with greater accuracy than is possible with data from a single reference station. The weight of each reference station in the hybrid strategy is determined by the (i) distance and (ii) elevation differences between the target farm site and each reference station. In this case, the wind data is divided into sectors according to the wind direction, and the MCP strategy is implemented for each wind direction sector separately. The applicability of the proposed hybrid strategy is investigated using five MCP methods: (i) the linear regression; (ii) the variance ratio; (iii) the Weibull scale; (iv) the artificial neural networks; and (v) the support vector regression. To implement the hybrid MCP methodology, we use hourly averaged wind data recorded at five stations in the state of Minnesota between 07-01-1996 and 06-30-2004. Three sets of performance metrics are used to evaluate the hybrid MCP method. The first set of metrics analyze the statistical performance, including the mean wind speed, wind speed variance, root mean square error, and mean absolute error. The second set of metrics evaluate the distribution of long-term wind speed; to this end, the Weibull distribution and the Multivariate and Multimodal Wind Distribution models are adopted. The third set of metrics analyze

  18. Toward a Smart Car: Hybrid Nonlinear Predictive Controller With Adaptive Horizon

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Pčolka, M.; Žáčeková, E.; Čelikovský, Sergej; Šebek, M.

    (2018), č. článku 08059760. ISSN 1063-6536 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA17-04682S Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Autonomous vehicles * hybrid systems * nonlinear model predictive control (MPC) * optimization * vehicle control Subject RIV: BC - Control Systems Theory Impact factor: 3.882, year: 2016 http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/8059760/

  19. Forest cover change prediction using hybrid methodology of geoinformatics and Markov chain model: A case study on sub-Himalayan town Gangtok, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukhopadhyay, Anirban; Mondal, Arun; Mukherjee, Sandip; Khatua, Dipam; Ghosh, Subhajit; Mitra, Debasish; Ghosh, Tuhin

    2014-08-01

    In the Himalayan states of India, with increasing population and activities, large areas of forested land are being converted into other land-use features. There is a definite cause and effect relationship between changing practice for development and changes in land use. So, an estimation of land use dynamics and a futuristic trend pattern is essential. A combination of geospatial and statistical techniques were applied to assess the present and future land use/land cover scenario of Gangtok, the subHimalayan capital of Sikkim. Multi-temporal satellite imageries of the Landsat series were used to map the changes in land use of Gangtok from 1990 to 2010. Only three major land use classes (built-up area and bare land, step cultivated area, and forest) were considered as the most dynamic land use practices of Gangtok. The conventional supervised classification, and spectral indices-based thresholding using NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) and SAVI (Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index) were applied along with the accuracy assessments. Markov modelling was applied for prediction of land use/land cover change and was validated. SAVI provides the most accurate estimate, i.e., the difference between predicted and actual data is minimal. Finally, a combination of Markov modelling and SAVI was used to predict the probable land-use scenario in Gangtok in 2020 AD, which indicted that more forest areas will be converted for step cultivation by the year 2020.

  20. Towards Modelling of Hybrid Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wisniewski, Rafal

    2006-01-01

    system consists of a number of dynamical systems that are glued together according to information encoded in the discrete part of the system. We develop a definition of a hybrid system as a functor from the category generated by a transition system to the category of directed topological spaces. Its...

  1. Hybrid computer modelling in plasma physics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hromadka, J; Ibehej, T; Hrach, R

    2016-01-01

    Our contribution is devoted to development of hybrid modelling techniques. We investigate sheath structures in the vicinity of solids immersed in low temperature argon plasma of different pressures by means of particle and fluid computer models. We discuss the differences in results obtained by these methods and try to propose a way to improve the results of fluid models in the low pressure area. There is a possibility to employ Chapman-Enskog method to find appropriate closure relations of fluid equations in a case when particle distribution function is not Maxwellian. We try to follow this way to enhance fluid model and to use it in hybrid plasma model further. (paper)

  2. Dynamic Modeling and Simulation of a Switched Reluctance Motor in a Series Hybrid Electric Vehicle

    OpenAIRE

    Siavash Sadeghi; Mojtaba Mirsalim; Arash Hassanpour Isfahani

    2010-01-01

    Dynamic behavior analysis of electric motors is required in order to accuratelyevaluate the performance, energy consumption and pollution level of hybrid electricvehicles. Simulation tools for hybrid electric vehicles are divided into steady state anddynamic models. Tools with steady-state models are useful for system-level analysiswhereas tools that utilize dynamic models give in-depth information about the behavior ofsublevel components. For the accurate prediction of hybrid electric vehicl...

  3. Reactor systems modeling for ICF hybrids

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berwald, D.H.; Meier, W.R.

    1980-10-01

    The computational models of ICF reactor subsystems developed by LLNL and TRW are described and a computer program was incorporated for use in the EPRI-sponsored Feasibility Assessment of Fusion-Fission Hybrids. Representative parametric variations have been examined. Many of the ICF subsystem models are very preliminary and more quantitative models need to be developed and included in the code

  4. A hybrid mammalian cell cycle model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vincent Noël

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Hybrid modeling provides an effective solution to cope with multiple time scales dynamics in systems biology. Among the applications of this method, one of the most important is the cell cycle regulation. The machinery of the cell cycle, leading to cell division and proliferation, combines slow growth, spatio-temporal re-organisation of the cell, and rapid changes of regulatory proteins concentrations induced by post-translational modifications. The advancement through the cell cycle comprises a well defined sequence of stages, separated by checkpoint transitions. The combination of continuous and discrete changes justifies hybrid modelling approaches to cell cycle dynamics. We present a piecewise-smooth version of a mammalian cell cycle model, obtained by hybridization from a smooth biochemical model. The approximate hybridization scheme, leading to simplified reaction rates and binary event location functions, is based on learning from a training set of trajectories of the smooth model. We discuss several learning strategies for the parameters of the hybrid model.

  5. Hybrid photovoltaic–thermal solar collectors dynamic modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amrizal, N.; Chemisana, D.; Rosell, J.I.

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► A hybrid photovoltaic/thermal dynamic model is presented. ► The model, once calibrated, can predict the power output for any set of climate data. ► The physical electrical model includes explicitly thermal and irradiance dependences. ► The results agree with those obtained through steady-state characterization. ► The model approaches the junction cell temperature through the system energy balance. -- Abstract: A hybrid photovoltaic/thermal transient model has been developed and validated experimentally. The methodology extends the quasi-dynamic thermal model stated in the EN 12975 in order to involve the electrical performance and consider the dynamic behavior minimizing constraints when characterizing the collector. A backward moving average filtering procedure has been applied to improve the model response for variable working conditions. Concerning the electrical part, the model includes the thermal and radiation dependences in its variables. The results revealed that the characteristic parameters included in the model agree reasonably well with the experimental values obtained from the standard steady-state and IV characteristic curve measurements. After a calibration process, the model is a suitable tool to predict the thermal and electrical performance of a hybrid solar collector, for a specific weather data set.

  6. A Hybrid 3D Indoor Space Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Jamali

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available GIS integrates spatial information and spatial analysis. An important example of such integration is for emergency response which requires route planning inside and outside of a building. Route planning requires detailed information related to indoor and outdoor environment. Indoor navigation network models including Geometric Network Model (GNM, Navigable Space Model, sub-division model and regular-grid model lack indoor data sources and abstraction methods. In this paper, a hybrid indoor space model is proposed. In the proposed method, 3D modeling of indoor navigation network is based on surveying control points and it is less dependent on the 3D geometrical building model. This research proposes a method of indoor space modeling for the buildings which do not have proper 2D/3D geometrical models or they lack semantic or topological information. The proposed hybrid model consists of topological, geometrical and semantical space.

  7. Hybrid simulation models of production networks

    CERN Document Server

    Kouikoglou, Vassilis S

    2001-01-01

    This book is concerned with a most important area of industrial production, that of analysis and optimization of production lines and networks using discrete-event models and simulation. The book introduces a novel approach that combines analytic models and discrete-event simulation. Unlike conventional piece-by-piece simulation, this method observes a reduced number of events between which the evolution of the system is tracked analytically. Using this hybrid approach, several models are developed for the analysis of production lines and networks. The hybrid approach combines speed and accuracy for exceptional analysis of most practical situations. A number of optimization problems, involving buffer design, workforce planning, and production control, are solved through the use of hybrid models.

  8. Modelling dependable systems using hybrid Bayesian networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neil, Martin; Tailor, Manesh; Marquez, David; Fenton, Norman; Hearty, Peter

    2008-01-01

    A hybrid Bayesian network (BN) is one that incorporates both discrete and continuous nodes. In our extensive applications of BNs for system dependability assessment, the models are invariably hybrid and the need for efficient and accurate computation is paramount. We apply a new iterative algorithm that efficiently combines dynamic discretisation with robust propagation algorithms on junction tree structures to perform inference in hybrid BNs. We illustrate its use in the field of dependability with two example of reliability estimation. Firstly we estimate the reliability of a simple single system and next we implement a hierarchical Bayesian model. In the hierarchical model we compute the reliability of two unknown subsystems from data collected on historically similar subsystems and then input the result into a reliability block model to compute system level reliability. We conclude that dynamic discretisation can be used as an alternative to analytical or Monte Carlo methods with high precision and can be applied to a wide range of dependability problems

  9. A Gaussian process regression based hybrid approach for short-term wind speed prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Chi; Wei, Haikun; Zhao, Xin; Liu, Tianhong; Zhang, Kanjian

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • A novel hybrid approach is proposed for short-term wind speed prediction. • This method combines the parametric AR model with the non-parametric GPR model. • The relative importance of different inputs is considered. • Different types of covariance functions are considered and combined. • It can provide both accurate point forecasts and satisfactory prediction intervals. - Abstract: This paper proposes a hybrid model based on autoregressive (AR) model and Gaussian process regression (GPR) for probabilistic wind speed forecasting. In the proposed approach, the AR model is employed to capture the overall structure from wind speed series, and the GPR is adopted to extract the local structure. Additionally, automatic relevance determination (ARD) is used to take into account the relative importance of different inputs, and different types of covariance functions are combined to capture the characteristics of the data. The proposed hybrid model is compared with the persistence model, artificial neural network (ANN), and support vector machine (SVM) for one-step ahead forecasting, using wind speed data collected from three wind farms in China. The forecasting results indicate that the proposed method can not only improve point forecasts compared with other methods, but also generate satisfactory prediction intervals.

  10. Weather forecasting based on hybrid neural model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saba, Tanzila; Rehman, Amjad; AlGhamdi, Jarallah S.

    2017-11-01

    Making deductions and expectations about climate has been a challenge all through mankind's history. Challenges with exact meteorological directions assist to foresee and handle problems well in time. Different strategies have been investigated using various machine learning techniques in reported forecasting systems. Current research investigates climate as a major challenge for machine information mining and deduction. Accordingly, this paper presents a hybrid neural model (MLP and RBF) to enhance the accuracy of weather forecasting. Proposed hybrid model ensure precise forecasting due to the specialty of climate anticipating frameworks. The study concentrates on the data representing Saudi Arabia weather forecasting. The main input features employed to train individual and hybrid neural networks that include average dew point, minimum temperature, maximum temperature, mean temperature, average relative moistness, precipitation, normal wind speed, high wind speed and average cloudiness. The output layer composed of two neurons to represent rainy and dry weathers. Moreover, trial and error approach is adopted to select an appropriate number of inputs to the hybrid neural network. Correlation coefficient, RMSE and scatter index are the standard yard sticks adopted for forecast accuracy measurement. On individual standing MLP forecasting results are better than RBF, however, the proposed simplified hybrid neural model comes out with better forecasting accuracy as compared to both individual networks. Additionally, results are better than reported in the state of art, using a simple neural structure that reduces training time and complexity.

  11. Cultural Resource Predictive Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-10-01

    CR cultural resource CRM cultural resource management CRPM Cultural Resource Predictive Modeling DoD Department of Defense ESTCP Environmental...resource management ( CRM ) legal obligations under NEPA and the NHPA, military installations need to demonstrate that CRM decisions are based on objective...maxim “one size does not fit all,” and demonstrate that DoD installations have many different CRM needs that can and should be met through a variety

  12. Candidate Prediction Models and Methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg; Nielsen, Torben Skov; Madsen, Henrik

    2005-01-01

    This document lists candidate prediction models for Work Package 3 (WP3) of the PSO-project called ``Intelligent wind power prediction systems'' (FU4101). The main focus is on the models transforming numerical weather predictions into predictions of power production. The document also outlines...... the possibilities w.r.t. different numerical weather predictions actually available to the project....

  13. Hybrid ANN–PLS approach to scroll compressor thermodynamic performance prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tian, Z.; Gu, B.; Yang, L.; Lu, Y.

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, a scroll compressor thermodynamic performance prediction was carried out by applying a hybrid ANN–PLS model. Firstly, an experimental platform with second-refrigeration calorimeter was set up and steady-state scroll compressor data sets were collected from experiments. Then totally 148 data sets were introduced to train and verify the validity of the ANN–PLS model for predicting the scroll compressor parameters such as volumetric efficiency, refrigerant mass flow rate, discharge temperature and power consumption. The ANN–PLS model was determined with 5 hidden neurons and 7 latent variables through the training process. Ultimately, the ANN–PLS model showed better performance than the ANN model and the PLS model working separately. ANN–PLS predictions agree well with the experimental values with mean relative errors (MREs) in the range of 0.34–1.96%, correlation coefficients (R 2 ) in the range of 0.9703–0.9999 and very low root mean square errors (RMSEs). - Highlights: • Hybrid ANN–PLS is utilized to predict the thermodynamic performance of scroll compressor. • ANN–PLS model is determined with 5 hidden neurons and 7 latent variables. • ANN–PLS model demonstrates better performance than ANN and PLS working separately. • The values of MRE and RMSE are in the range of 0.34–1.96% and 0.9703–0.9999, respectively

  14. Predictive Surface Complexation Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sverjensky, Dimitri A. [Johns Hopkins Univ., Baltimore, MD (United States). Dept. of Earth and Planetary Sciences

    2016-11-29

    Surface complexation plays an important role in the equilibria and kinetics of processes controlling the compositions of soilwaters and groundwaters, the fate of contaminants in groundwaters, and the subsurface storage of CO2 and nuclear waste. Over the last several decades, many dozens of individual experimental studies have addressed aspects of surface complexation that have contributed to an increased understanding of its role in natural systems. However, there has been no previous attempt to develop a model of surface complexation that can be used to link all the experimental studies in order to place them on a predictive basis. Overall, my research has successfully integrated the results of the work of many experimentalists published over several decades. For the first time in studies of the geochemistry of the mineral-water interface, a practical predictive capability for modeling has become available. The predictive correlations developed in my research now enable extrapolations of experimental studies to provide estimates of surface chemistry for systems not yet studied experimentally and for natural and anthropogenically perturbed systems.

  15. Hybrid quantum teleportation: A theoretical model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Takeda, Shuntaro; Mizuta, Takahiro; Fuwa, Maria; Yoshikawa, Jun-ichi; Yonezawa, Hidehiro; Furusawa, Akira [Department of Applied Physics, School of Engineering, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-8656 (Japan)

    2014-12-04

    Hybrid quantum teleportation – continuous-variable teleportation of qubits – is a promising approach for deterministically teleporting photonic qubits. We propose how to implement it with current technology. Our theoretical model shows that faithful qubit transfer can be achieved for this teleportation by choosing an optimal gain for the teleporter’s classical channel.

  16. Modelling of data uncertainties on hybrid computers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schneider, Anke (ed.)

    2016-06-15

    The codes d{sup 3}f and r{sup 3}t are well established for modelling density-driven flow and nuclide transport in the far field of repositories for hazardous material in deep geological formations. They are applicable in porous media as well as in fractured rock or mudstone, for modelling salt- and heat transport as well as a free groundwater surface. Development of the basic framework of d{sup 3}f and r{sup 3}t had begun more than 20 years ago. Since that time significant advancements took place in the requirements for safety assessment as well as for computer hardware development. The period of safety assessment for a repository of high-level radioactive waste was extended to 1 million years, and the complexity of the models is steadily growing. Concurrently, the demands on accuracy increase. Additionally, model and parameter uncertainties become more and more important for an increased understanding of prediction reliability. All this leads to a growing demand for computational power that requires a considerable software speed-up. An effective way to achieve this is the use of modern, hybrid computer architectures which requires basically the set-up of new data structures and a corresponding code revision but offers a potential speed-up by several orders of magnitude. The original codes d{sup 3}f and r{sup 3}t were applications of the software platform UG /BAS 94/ whose development had begun in the early nineteennineties. However, UG had recently been advanced to the C++ based, substantially revised version UG4 /VOG 13/. To benefit also in the future from state-of-the-art numerical algorithms and to use hybrid computer architectures, the codes d{sup 3}f and r{sup 3}t were transferred to this new code platform. Making use of the fact that coupling between different sets of equations is natively supported in UG4, d{sup 3}f and r{sup 3}t were combined to one conjoint code d{sup 3}f++. A direct estimation of uncertainties for complex groundwater flow models with the

  17. Comparative Study of Bancruptcy Prediction Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isye Arieshanti

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Early indication of bancruptcy is important for a company. If companies aware of  potency of their bancruptcy, they can take a preventive action to anticipate the bancruptcy. In order to detect the potency of a bancruptcy, a company can utilize a a model of bancruptcy prediction. The prediction model can be built using a machine learning methods. However, the choice of machine learning methods should be performed carefully. Because the suitability of a model depends on the problem specifically. Therefore, in this paper we perform a comparative study of several machine leaning methods for bancruptcy prediction. According to the comparative study, the performance of several models that based on machine learning methods (k-NN, fuzzy k-NN, SVM, Bagging Nearest Neighbour SVM, Multilayer Perceptron(MLP, Hybrid of MLP + Multiple Linear Regression, it can be showed that fuzzy k-NN method achieve the best performance with accuracy 77.5%

  18. A Hybrid Model for Forecasting Sales in Turkish Paint Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alp Ustundag

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Sales forecasting is important for facilitating effective and efficient allocation of scarce resources. However, how to best model and forecast sales has been a long-standing issue. There is no best forecasting method that is applicable in all circumstances. Therefore, confidence in the accuracy of sales forecasts is achieved by corroborating the results using two or more methods. This paper proposes a hybrid forecasting model that uses an artificial intelligence method (AI with multiple linear regression (MLR to predict product sales for the largest Turkish paint producer. In the hybrid model, three different AI methods, fuzzy rule-based system (FRBS, artificial neural network (ANN and adaptive neuro fuzzy network (ANFIS, are used and compared to each other. The results indicate that FRBS yields better forecasting accuracy in terms of root mean squared error (RMSE and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE.

  19. Hybrid Energy System Modeling in Modelica

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    William R. Binder; Christiaan J. J. Paredis; Humberto E. Garcia

    2014-03-01

    In this paper, a Hybrid Energy System (HES) configuration is modeled in Modelica. Hybrid Energy Systems (HES) have as their defining characteristic the use of one or more energy inputs, combined with the potential for multiple energy outputs. Compared to traditional energy systems, HES provide additional operational flexibility so that high variability in both energy production and consumption levels can be absorbed more effectively. This is particularly important when including renewable energy sources, whose output levels are inherently variable, determined by nature. The specific HES configuration modeled in this paper include two energy inputs: a nuclear plant, and a series of wind turbines. In addition, the system produces two energy outputs: electricity and synthetic fuel. The models are verified through simulations of the individual components, and the system as a whole. The simulations are performed for a range of component sizes, operating conditions, and control schemes.

  20. The Hybrid of Classification Tree and Extreme Learning Machine for Permeability Prediction in Oil Reservoir

    KAUST Repository

    Prasetyo Utomo, Chandra

    2011-06-01

    Permeability is an important parameter connected with oil reservoir. Predicting the permeability could save millions of dollars. Unfortunately, petroleum engineers have faced numerous challenges arriving at cost-efficient predictions. Much work has been carried out to solve this problem. The main challenge is to handle the high range of permeability in each reservoir. For about a hundred year, mathematicians and engineers have tried to deliver best prediction models. However, none of them have produced satisfying results. In the last two decades, artificial intelligence models have been used. The current best prediction model in permeability prediction is extreme learning machine (ELM). It produces fairly good results but a clear explanation of the model is hard to come by because it is so complex. The aim of this research is to propose a way out of this complexity through the design of a hybrid intelligent model. In this proposal, the system combines classification and regression models to predict the permeability value. These are based on the well logs data. In order to handle the high range of the permeability value, a classification tree is utilized. A benefit of this innovation is that the tree represents knowledge in a clear and succinct fashion and thereby avoids the complexity of all previous models. Finally, it is important to note that the ELM is used as a final predictor. Results demonstrate that this proposed hybrid model performs better when compared with support vector machines (SVM) and ELM in term of correlation coefficient. Moreover, the classification tree model potentially leads to better communication among petroleum engineers concerning this important process and has wider implications for oil reservoir management efficiency.

  1. Mathematical Modeling of Hybrid Electrical Engineering Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. A. Lobaty

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A large class of systems that have found application in various industries and households, electrified transportation facilities and energy sector has been classified as electrical engineering systems. Their characteristic feature is a combination of continuous and discontinuous modes of operation, which is reflected in the appearance of a relatively new term “hybrid systems”. A wide class of hybrid systems is pulsed DC converters operating in a pulse width modulation, which are non-linear systems with variable structure. Using various methods for linearization it is possible to obtain linear mathematical models that rather accurately simulate behavior of such systems. However, the presence in the mathematical models of exponential nonlinearities creates considerable difficulties in the implementation of digital hardware. The solution can be found while using an approximation of exponential functions by polynomials of the first order, that, however, violates the rigor accordance of the analytical model with characteristics of a real object. There are two practical approaches to synthesize algorithms for control of hybrid systems. The first approach is based on the representation of the whole system by a discrete model which is described by difference equations that makes it possible to synthesize discrete algorithms. The second approach is based on description of the system by differential equations. The equations describe synthesis of continuous algorithms and their further implementation in a digital computer included in the control loop system. The paper considers modeling of a hybrid electrical engineering system using differential equations. Neglecting the pulse duration, it has been proposed to describe behavior of vector components in phase coordinates of the hybrid system by stochastic differential equations containing generally non-linear differentiable random functions. A stochastic vector-matrix equation describing dynamics of the

  2. Application of soft computing based hybrid models in hydrological variables modeling: a comprehensive review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fahimi, Farzad; Yaseen, Zaher Mundher; El-shafie, Ahmed

    2017-05-01

    Since the middle of the twentieth century, artificial intelligence (AI) models have been used widely in engineering and science problems. Water resource variable modeling and prediction are the most challenging issues in water engineering. Artificial neural network (ANN) is a common approach used to tackle this problem by using viable and efficient models. Numerous ANN models have been successfully developed to achieve more accurate results. In the current review, different ANN models in water resource applications and hydrological variable predictions are reviewed and outlined. In addition, recent hybrid models and their structures, input preprocessing, and optimization techniques are discussed and the results are compared with similar previous studies. Moreover, to achieve a comprehensive view of the literature, many articles that applied ANN models together with other techniques are included. Consequently, coupling procedure, model evaluation, and performance comparison of hybrid models with conventional ANN models are assessed, as well as, taxonomy and hybrid ANN models structures. Finally, current challenges and recommendations for future researches are indicated and new hybrid approaches are proposed.

  3. A Prediction Method of Airport Noise Based on Hybrid Ensemble Learning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tao XU

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Using monitoring history data to build and to train a prediction model for airport noise is a normal method in recent years. However, the single model built in different ways has various performances in the storage, efficiency and accuracy. In order to predict the noise accurately in some complex environment around airport, this paper presents a prediction method based on hybrid ensemble learning. The proposed method ensembles three algorithms: artificial neural network as an active learner, nearest neighbor as a passive leaner and nonlinear regression as a synthesized learner. The experimental results show that the three learners can meet forecast demands respectively in on- line, near-line and off-line. And the accuracy of prediction is improved by integrating these three learners’ results.

  4. Optimization of hybrid model on hajj travel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cahyandari, R.; Ariany, R. L.; Sukono

    2018-03-01

    Hajj travel insurance is an insurance product offered by the insurance company in preparing funds to perform the pilgrimage. This insurance product helps would-be pilgrims to set aside a fund of saving hajj with regularly, but also provides funds of profit sharing (mudharabah) and insurance protection. Scheme of insurance product fund management is largely using the hybrid model, which is the fund from would-be pilgrims will be divided into three account management, that is personal account, tabarru’, and ujrah. Scheme of hybrid model on hajj travel insurance was already discussed at the earlier paper with titled “The Hybrid Model Algorithm on Sharia Insurance”, taking the example case of Mitra Mabrur Plus product from Bumiputera company. On these advanced paper, will be made the previous optimization model design, with partition of benefit the tabarru’ account. Benefits such as compensation for 40 critical illness which initially only for participants of insurance only, on optimization is intended for participants of the insurance and his heir, also to benefit the hospital bills. Meanwhile, the benefits of death benefit is given if the participant is fixed die.

  5. Mfold web server for nucleic acid folding and hybridization prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zuker, Michael

    2003-07-01

    The abbreviated name, 'mfold web server', describes a number of closely related software applications available on the World Wide Web (WWW) for the prediction of the secondary structure of single stranded nucleic acids. The objective of this web server is to provide easy access to RNA and DNA folding and hybridization software to the scientific community at large. By making use of universally available web GUIs (Graphical User Interfaces), the server circumvents the problem of portability of this software. Detailed output, in the form of structure plots with or without reliability information, single strand frequency plots and 'energy dot plots', are available for the folding of single sequences. A variety of 'bulk' servers give less information, but in a shorter time and for up to hundreds of sequences at once. The portal for the mfold web server is http://www.bioinfo.rpi.edu/applications/mfold. This URL will be referred to as 'MFOLDROOT'.

  6. Gravitational waves in hybrid quintessential inflationary models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sa, Paulo M [Departamento de Fisica, Faculdade de Ciencias e Tecnologia, Universidade do Algarve, Campus de Gambelas, 8005-139 Faro (Portugal); Henriques, Alfredo B, E-mail: pmsa@ualg.pt, E-mail: alfredo.henriques@ist.utl.pt [Centro Multidisciplinar de Astrofisica - CENTRA and Departamento de Fisica, Instituto Superior Tecnico, UTL, Av. Rovisco Pais, 1049-001 Lisboa (Portugal)

    2011-09-22

    The generation of primordial gravitational waves is investigated within the hybrid quintessential inflationary model. Using the method of continuous Bogoliubov coefficients, we calculate the full gravitational-wave energy spectrum. The post-inflationary kination period, characteristic of quintessential inflationary models, leaves a clear signature on the spectrum, namely, a sharp rise of the gravitational-wave spectral energy density {Omega}{sub GW} at high frequencies. For appropriate values of the parameters of the model, {Omega}{sub GW} can be as high as 10{sup -12} in the MHz-GHz range of frequencies.

  7. Gravitational waves in hybrid quintessential inflationary models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sa, Paulo M; Henriques, Alfredo B

    2011-01-01

    The generation of primordial gravitational waves is investigated within the hybrid quintessential inflationary model. Using the method of continuous Bogoliubov coefficients, we calculate the full gravitational-wave energy spectrum. The post-inflationary kination period, characteristic of quintessential inflationary models, leaves a clear signature on the spectrum, namely, a sharp rise of the gravitational-wave spectral energy density Ω GW at high frequencies. For appropriate values of the parameters of the model, Ω GW can be as high as 10 -12 in the MHz-GHz range of frequencies.

  8. Modelling Chemical Preservation of Plantain Hybrid Fruits

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ogueri Nwaiwu

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available New plantain hybrids plants have been developed but not much has been done on the post-harvest keeping quality of the fruits and how they are affected by microbial colonization. Hence fruits from a tetraploid hybrid PITA 2 (TMPx 548-9 obtained by crossing plantain varieties Obino l’Ewai and Calcutta 4 (AA and two local triploid (AAB plantain landraces Agbagba and Obino l’Ewai were subjected to various concentrations of acetic, sorbic and propionic acid to determine the impact of chemical concentration, chemical type and plantain variety on ripening and weight loss of plantain fruits. Analysis of titratable acidity, moisture content and total soluble solids showed that there were no significant differences between fruits of hybrid and local varieties. The longest time to ripening from harvest (24 days was achieved with fruits of Agbagba treated with 3% propionic acid. However, fruits of PITA 2 hybrid treated with propionic and sorbic acid at 3% showed the longest green life which indicated that the chemicals may work better at higher concentrations. The Obino l’Ewai cultivar had the highest weight loss for all chemical types used. Modelling data obtained showed that plantain variety had the most significant effect on ripening and indicates that ripening of the fruits may depend on the plantain variety. It appears that weight loss of fruits from the plantain hybrid and local cultivars was not affected by the plantain variety, chemical type. The chemicals at higher concentrations may have an effect on ripening of the fruits and will need further investigation.

  9. Hybrid perturbation methods based on statistical time series models

    Science.gov (United States)

    San-Juan, Juan Félix; San-Martín, Montserrat; Pérez, Iván; López, Rosario

    2016-04-01

    In this work we present a new methodology for orbit propagation, the hybrid perturbation theory, based on the combination of an integration method and a prediction technique. The former, which can be a numerical, analytical or semianalytical theory, generates an initial approximation that contains some inaccuracies derived from the fact that, in order to simplify the expressions and subsequent computations, not all the involved forces are taken into account and only low-order terms are considered, not to mention the fact that mathematical models of perturbations not always reproduce physical phenomena with absolute precision. The prediction technique, which can be based on either statistical time series models or computational intelligence methods, is aimed at modelling and reproducing missing dynamics in the previously integrated approximation. This combination results in the precision improvement of conventional numerical, analytical and semianalytical theories for determining the position and velocity of any artificial satellite or space debris object. In order to validate this methodology, we present a family of three hybrid orbit propagators formed by the combination of three different orders of approximation of an analytical theory and a statistical time series model, and analyse their capability to process the effect produced by the flattening of the Earth. The three considered analytical components are the integration of the Kepler problem, a first-order and a second-order analytical theories, whereas the prediction technique is the same in the three cases, namely an additive Holt-Winters method.

  10. Comments On Clock Models In Hybrid Automata And Hybrid Control Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Virginia Ecaterina OLTEAN

    2001-12-01

    Full Text Available Hybrid systems have received a lot of attention in the past decade and a number of different models have been proposed in order to establish mathematical framework that is able to handle both continuous and discrete aspects. This contribution is focused on two models: hybrid automata and hybrid control systems with continuous-discrete interface and the importance of clock models is emphasized. Simple and relevant examples, some taken from the literature, accompany the presentation.

  11. Confidence scores for prediction models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gerds, Thomas Alexander; van de Wiel, MA

    2011-01-01

    In medical statistics, many alternative strategies are available for building a prediction model based on training data. Prediction models are routinely compared by means of their prediction performance in independent validation data. If only one data set is available for training and validation,...

  12. Design of Xen Hybrid Multiple Police Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Lei; Lin, Renhao; Zhu, Xianwei

    2017-10-01

    Virtualization Technology has attracted more and more attention. As a popular open-source virtualization tools, XEN is used more and more frequently. Xsm, XEN security model, has also been widespread concern. The safety status classification has not been established in the XSM, and it uses the virtual machine as a managed object to make Dom0 a unique administrative domain that does not meet the minimum privilege. According to these questions, we design a Hybrid multiple police model named SV_HMPMD that organically integrates multiple single security policy models include DTE,RBAC,BLP. It can fullfill the requirement of confidentiality and integrity for security model and use different particle size to different domain. In order to improve BLP’s practicability, the model introduce multi-level security labels. In order to divide the privilege in detail, we combine DTE with RBAC. In order to oversize privilege, we limit the privilege of domain0.

  13. Infectious disease modeling a hybrid system approach

    CERN Document Server

    Liu, Xinzhi

    2017-01-01

    This volume presents infectious diseases modeled mathematically, taking seasonality and changes in population behavior into account, using a switched and hybrid systems framework. The scope of coverage includes background on mathematical epidemiology, including classical formulations and results; a motivation for seasonal effects and changes in population behavior, an investigation into term-time forced epidemic models with switching parameters, and a detailed account of several different control strategies. The main goal is to study these models theoretically and to establish conditions under which eradication or persistence of the disease is guaranteed. In doing so, the long-term behavior of the models is determined through mathematical techniques from switched systems theory. Numerical simulations are also given to augment and illustrate the theoretical results and to help study the efficacy of the control schemes.

  14. PREDICTED PERCENTAGE DISSATISFIED (PPD) MODEL ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    HOD

    their low power requirements, are relatively cheap and are environment friendly. ... PREDICTED PERCENTAGE DISSATISFIED MODEL EVALUATION OF EVAPORATIVE COOLING ... The performance of direct evaporative coolers is a.

  15. Craniomandibular form and body size variation of first generation mouse hybrids: A model for hominin hybridization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warren, Kerryn A; Ritzman, Terrence B; Humphreys, Robyn A; Percival, Christopher J; Hallgrímsson, Benedikt; Ackermann, Rebecca Rogers

    2018-03-01

    Hybridization occurs in a number of mammalian lineages, including among primate taxa. Analyses of ancient genomes have shown that hybridization between our lineage and other archaic hominins in Eurasia occurred numerous times in the past. However, we still have limited empirical data on what a hybrid skeleton looks like, or how to spot patterns of hybridization among fossils for which there are no genetic data. Here we use experimental mouse models to supplement previous studies of primates. We characterize size and shape variation in the cranium and mandible of three wild-derived inbred mouse strains and their first generation (F 1 ) hybrids. The three parent taxa in our analysis represent lineages that diverged over approximately the same period as the human/Neanderthal/Denisovan lineages and their hybrids are variably successful in the wild. Comparisons of body size, as quantified by long bone measurements, are also presented to determine whether the identified phenotypic effects of hybridization are localized to the cranium or represent overall body size changes. The results indicate that hybrid cranial and mandibular sizes, as well as limb length, exceed that of the parent taxa in all cases. All three F 1 hybrid crosses display similar patterns of size and form variation. These results are generally consistent with earlier studies on primates and other mammals, suggesting that the effects of hybridization may be similar across very different scenarios of hybridization, including different levels of hybrid fitness. This paper serves to supplement previous studies aimed at identifying F 1 hybrids in the fossil record and to introduce further research that will explore hybrid morphologies using mice as a proxy for better understanding hybridization in the hominin fossil record. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. A hybrid modeling approach for option pricing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hajizadeh, Ehsan; Seifi, Abbas

    2011-11-01

    The complexity of option pricing has led many researchers to develop sophisticated models for such purposes. The commonly used Black-Scholes model suffers from a number of limitations. One of these limitations is the assumption that the underlying probability distribution is lognormal and this is so controversial. We propose a couple of hybrid models to reduce these limitations and enhance the ability of option pricing. The key input to option pricing model is volatility. In this paper, we use three popular GARCH type model for estimating volatility. Then, we develop two non-parametric models based on neural networks and neuro-fuzzy networks to price call options for S&P 500 index. We compare the results with those of Black-Scholes model and show that both neural network and neuro-fuzzy network models outperform Black-Scholes model. Furthermore, comparing the neural network and neuro-fuzzy approaches, we observe that for at-the-money options, neural network model performs better and for both in-the-money and an out-of-the money option, neuro-fuzzy model provides better results.

  17. Numerical modeling of hybrid fiber-reinforced concrete (hyfrc)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hameed, R.; Turatsinze, A.

    2015-01-01

    A model for numerical simulation of mechanical response of concrete reinforced with slipping and non slipping metallic fibers in hybrid form is presented in this paper. Constitutive law used to model plain concrete behaviour is based on plasticity and damage theories, and is capable to determine localized crack opening in three dimensional (3-D) systems. Behaviour law used for slipping metallic fibers is formulated based on effective stress carried by these fibers after when concrete matrix is cracked. A continuous approach is proposed to model the effect of addition of non-slipping metallic fibers in plain concrete. This approach considers the constitutive law of concrete matrix with increased fracture energy in tension obtained experimentally in direct tension tests on Fiber Reinforced Concrete (FRC). To simulate the mechanical behaviour of hybrid fiber-reinforced concrete (HyFRC), proposed approaches to model non-slipping metallic fibers and constitutive law of plain concrete and slipping fibers are used simultaneously without any additive equation. All the parameters used by the proposed model have physical meanings and are determined through experiments or drawn from literature. The model was implemented in Finite Element (FE) Code CASTEM and tested on FRC prismatic notched specimens in flexure. Model prediction showed good agreement with experimental results. (author)

  18. Parametric Linear Hybrid Automata for Complex Environmental Systems Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samar Hayat Khan Tareen

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Environmental systems, whether they be weather patterns or predator-prey relationships, are dependent on a number of different variables, each directly or indirectly affecting the system at large. Since not all of these factors are known, these systems take on non-linear dynamics, making it difficult to accurately predict meaningful behavioral trends far into the future. However, such dynamics do not warrant complete ignorance of different efforts to understand and model close approximations of these systems. Towards this end, we have applied a logical modeling approach to model and analyze the behavioral trends and systematic trajectories that these systems exhibit without delving into their quantification. This approach, formalized by René Thomas for discrete logical modeling of Biological Regulatory Networks (BRNs and further extended in our previous studies as parametric biological linear hybrid automata (Bio-LHA, has been previously employed for the analyses of different molecular regulatory interactions occurring across various cells and microbial species. As relationships between different interacting components of a system can be simplified as positive or negative influences, we can employ the Bio-LHA framework to represent different components of the environmental system as positive or negative feedbacks. In the present study, we highlight the benefits of hybrid (discrete/continuous modeling which lead to refinements among the fore-casted behaviors in order to find out which ones are actually possible. We have taken two case studies: an interaction of three microbial species in a freshwater pond, and a more complex atmospheric system, to show the applications of the Bio-LHA methodology for the timed hybrid modeling of environmental systems. Results show that the approach using the Bio-LHA is a viable method for behavioral modeling of complex environmental systems by finding timing constraints while keeping the complexity of the model

  19. Forest cover change prediction using hybrid methodology of ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    to assess the present and future land use/land cover scenario of Gangtok, the subHimalayan capital of ... data is minimal. Finally, a combination of Markov modelling and SAVI was used to predict the probable land-use scenario in Gangtok in 2020 AD, which indicted that more ... to develop resource allocation strategies.

  20. Low speed hybrid generalized predictive control of a gasoline-propelled car.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romero, M; de Madrid, A P; Mañoso, C; Milanés, V

    2015-07-01

    Low-speed driving in traffic jams causes significant pollution and wasted time for commuters. Additionally, from the passengers׳ standpoint, this is an uncomfortable, stressful and tedious scene that is suitable to be automated. The highly nonlinear dynamics of car engines at low-speed turn its automation in a complex problem that still remains as unsolved. Considering the hybrid nature of the vehicle longitudinal control at low-speed, constantly switching between throttle and brake pedal actions, hybrid control is a good candidate to solve this problem. This work presents the analytical formulation of a hybrid predictive controller for automated low-speed driving. It takes advantage of valuable characteristics supplied by predictive control strategies both for compensating un-modeled dynamics and for keeping passengers security and comfort analytically by means of the treatment of constraints. The proposed controller was implemented in a gas-propelled vehicle to experimentally validate the adopted solution. To this end, different scenarios were analyzed varying road layouts and vehicle speeds within a private test track. The production vehicle is a commercial Citroën C3 Pluriel which has been modified to automatically act over its throttle and brake pedals. Copyright © 2015 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Prediction of Currency Volume Issued in Taiwan Using a Hybrid Artificial Neural Network and Multiple Regression Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuehjen E. Shao

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Because the volume of currency issued by a country always affects its interest rate, price index, income levels, and many other important macroeconomic variables, the prediction of currency volume issued has attracted considerable attention in recent years. In contrast to the typical single-stage forecast model, this study proposes a hybrid forecasting approach to predict the volume of currency issued in Taiwan. The proposed hybrid models consist of artificial neural network (ANN and multiple regression (MR components. The MR component of the hybrid models is established for a selection of fewer explanatory variables, wherein the selected variables are of higher importance. The ANN component is then designed to generate forecasts based on those important explanatory variables. Subsequently, the model is used to analyze a real dataset of Taiwan's currency from 1996 to 2011 and twenty associated explanatory variables. The prediction results reveal that the proposed hybrid scheme exhibits superior forecasting performance for predicting the volume of currency issued in Taiwan.

  2. SNBRFinder: A Sequence-Based Hybrid Algorithm for Enhanced Prediction of Nucleic Acid-Binding Residues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Xiaoxia; Wang, Jia; Sun, Jun; Liu, Rong

    2015-01-01

    Protein-nucleic acid interactions are central to various fundamental biological processes. Automated methods capable of reliably identifying DNA- and RNA-binding residues in protein sequence are assuming ever-increasing importance. The majority of current algorithms rely on feature-based prediction, but their accuracy remains to be further improved. Here we propose a sequence-based hybrid algorithm SNBRFinder (Sequence-based Nucleic acid-Binding Residue Finder) by merging a feature predictor SNBRFinderF and a template predictor SNBRFinderT. SNBRFinderF was established using the support vector machine whose inputs include sequence profile and other complementary sequence descriptors, while SNBRFinderT was implemented with the sequence alignment algorithm based on profile hidden Markov models to capture the weakly homologous template of query sequence. Experimental results show that SNBRFinderF was clearly superior to the commonly used sequence profile-based predictor and SNBRFinderT can achieve comparable performance to the structure-based template methods. Leveraging the complementary relationship between these two predictors, SNBRFinder reasonably improved the performance of both DNA- and RNA-binding residue predictions. More importantly, the sequence-based hybrid prediction reached competitive performance relative to our previous structure-based counterpart. Our extensive and stringent comparisons show that SNBRFinder has obvious advantages over the existing sequence-based prediction algorithms. The value of our algorithm is highlighted by establishing an easy-to-use web server that is freely accessible at http://ibi.hzau.edu.cn/SNBRFinder.

  3. Modeling of renewable hybrid energy sources

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dumitru Cristian Dragos

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Recent developments and trends in the electric power consumption indicate an increasing use of renewable energy. Renewable energy technologies offer the promise of clean, abundant energy gathered from self-renewing resources such as the sun, wind, earth and plants. Virtually all regions of the world have renewable resources of one type or another. By this point of view studies on renewable energies focuses more and more attention. The present paper intends to present different mathematical models related to different types of renewable energy sources such as: solar energy and wind energy. It is also presented the validation and adaptation of such models to hybrid systems working in geographical and meteorological conditions specific to central part of Transylvania region. The conclusions based on validation of such models are also shown.

  4. A Four-Stage Hybrid Model for Hydrological Time Series Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di, Chongli; Yang, Xiaohua; Wang, Xiaochao

    2014-01-01

    Hydrological time series forecasting remains a difficult task due to its complicated nonlinear, non-stationary and multi-scale characteristics. To solve this difficulty and improve the prediction accuracy, a novel four-stage hybrid model is proposed for hydrological time series forecasting based on the principle of ‘denoising, decomposition and ensemble’. The proposed model has four stages, i.e., denoising, decomposition, components prediction and ensemble. In the denoising stage, the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) method is utilized to reduce the noises in the hydrological time series. Then, an improved method of EMD, the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD), is applied to decompose the denoised series into a number of intrinsic mode function (IMF) components and one residual component. Next, the radial basis function neural network (RBFNN) is adopted to predict the trend of all of the components obtained in the decomposition stage. In the final ensemble prediction stage, the forecasting results of all of the IMF and residual components obtained in the third stage are combined to generate the final prediction results, using a linear neural network (LNN) model. For illustration and verification, six hydrological cases with different characteristics are used to test the effectiveness of the proposed model. The proposed hybrid model performs better than conventional single models, the hybrid models without denoising or decomposition and the hybrid models based on other methods, such as the wavelet analysis (WA)-based hybrid models. In addition, the denoising and decomposition strategies decrease the complexity of the series and reduce the difficulties of the forecasting. With its effective denoising and accurate decomposition ability, high prediction precision and wide applicability, the new model is very promising for complex time series forecasting. This new forecast model is an extension of nonlinear prediction models. PMID:25111782

  5. A four-stage hybrid model for hydrological time series forecasting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di, Chongli; Yang, Xiaohua; Wang, Xiaochao

    2014-01-01

    Hydrological time series forecasting remains a difficult task due to its complicated nonlinear, non-stationary and multi-scale characteristics. To solve this difficulty and improve the prediction accuracy, a novel four-stage hybrid model is proposed for hydrological time series forecasting based on the principle of 'denoising, decomposition and ensemble'. The proposed model has four stages, i.e., denoising, decomposition, components prediction and ensemble. In the denoising stage, the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) method is utilized to reduce the noises in the hydrological time series. Then, an improved method of EMD, the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD), is applied to decompose the denoised series into a number of intrinsic mode function (IMF) components and one residual component. Next, the radial basis function neural network (RBFNN) is adopted to predict the trend of all of the components obtained in the decomposition stage. In the final ensemble prediction stage, the forecasting results of all of the IMF and residual components obtained in the third stage are combined to generate the final prediction results, using a linear neural network (LNN) model. For illustration and verification, six hydrological cases with different characteristics are used to test the effectiveness of the proposed model. The proposed hybrid model performs better than conventional single models, the hybrid models without denoising or decomposition and the hybrid models based on other methods, such as the wavelet analysis (WA)-based hybrid models. In addition, the denoising and decomposition strategies decrease the complexity of the series and reduce the difficulties of the forecasting. With its effective denoising and accurate decomposition ability, high prediction precision and wide applicability, the new model is very promising for complex time series forecasting. This new forecast model is an extension of nonlinear prediction models.

  6. Hybrid Models of Alternative Current Filter for Hvdc

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ufa Ruslan A.

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on a hybrid simulation concept of HVDC, the developed hybrid AC filter models, providing the sufficiently full and adequate modeling of all single continuous spectrum of quasi-steady-state and transient processes in the filter, are presented. The obtained results suggest that usage of the hybrid simulation approach is carried out a methodically accurate with guaranteed instrumental error solution of differential equation systems of mathematical models of HVDC.

  7. Ionocovalency and Applications 1. Ionocovalency Model and Orbital Hybrid Scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yonghe Zhang

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Ionocovalency (IC, a quantitative dual nature of the atom, is defined and correlated with quantum-mechanical potential to describe quantitatively the dual properties of the bond. Orbiotal hybrid IC model scale, IC, and IC electronegativity scale, XIC, are proposed, wherein the ionicity and the covalent radius are determined by spectroscopy. Being composed of the ionic function I and the covalent function C, the model describes quantitatively the dual properties of bond strengths, charge density and ionic potential. Based on the atomic electron configuration and the various quantum-mechanical built-up dual parameters, the model formed a Dual Method of the multiple-functional prediction, which has much more versatile and exceptional applications than traditional electronegativity scales and molecular properties. Hydrogen has unconventional values of IC and XIC, lower than that of boron. The IC model can agree fairly well with the data of bond properties and satisfactorily explain chemical observations of elements throughout the Periodic Table.

  8. Analysis of chromosome aberration data by hybrid-scale models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Indrawati, Iwiq; Kumazawa, Shigeru

    2000-02-01

    This paper presents a new methodology for analyzing data of chromosome aberrations, which is useful to understand the characteristics of dose-response relationships and to construct the calibration curves for the biological dosimetry. The hybrid scale of linear and logarithmic scales brings a particular plotting paper, where the normal section paper, two types of semi-log papers and the log-log paper are continuously connected. The hybrid-hybrid plotting paper may contain nine kinds of linear relationships, and these are conveniently called hybrid scale models. One can systematically select the best-fit model among the nine models by among the conditions for a straight line of data points. A biological interpretation is possible with some hybrid-scale models. In this report, the hybrid scale models were applied to separately reported data on chromosome aberrations in human lymphocytes as well as on chromosome breaks in Tradescantia. The results proved that the proposed models fit the data better than the linear-quadratic model, despite the demerit of the increased number of model parameters. We showed that the hybrid-hybrid model (both variables of dose and response using the hybrid scale) provides the best-fit straight lines to be used as the reliable and readable calibration curves of chromosome aberrations. (author)

  9. A Hybrid Ground-Motion Prediction Equation for Earthquakes in Western Alberta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spriggs, N.; Yenier, E.; Law, A.; Moores, A. O.

    2015-12-01

    Estimation of ground-motion amplitudes that may be produced by future earthquakes constitutes the foundation of seismic hazard assessment and earthquake-resistant structural design. This is typically done by using a prediction equation that quantifies amplitudes as a function of key seismological variables such as magnitude, distance and site condition. In this study, we develop a hybrid empirical prediction equation for earthquakes in western Alberta, where evaluation of seismic hazard associated with induced seismicity is of particular interest. We use peak ground motions and response spectra from recorded seismic events to model the regional source and attenuation attributes. The available empirical data is limited in the magnitude range of engineering interest (M>4). Therefore, we combine empirical data with a simulation-based model in order to obtain seismologically informed predictions for moderate-to-large magnitude events. The methodology is two-fold. First, we investigate the shape of geometrical spreading in Alberta. We supplement the seismic data with ground motions obtained from mining/quarry blasts, in order to gain insights into the regional attenuation over a wide distance range. A comparison of ground-motion amplitudes for earthquakes and mining/quarry blasts show that both event types decay at similar rates with distance and demonstrate a significant Moho-bounce effect. In the second stage, we calibrate the source and attenuation parameters of a simulation-based prediction equation to match the available amplitude data from seismic events. We model the geometrical spreading using a trilinear function with attenuation rates obtained from the first stage, and calculate coefficients of anelastic attenuation and site amplification via regression analysis. This provides a hybrid ground-motion prediction equation that is calibrated for observed motions in western Alberta and is applicable to moderate-to-large magnitude events.

  10. A Hybrid Teaching and Learning Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juhary, Jowati Binti

    This paper aims at analysing the needs for a specific teaching and learning model for the National Defence University of Malaysia (NDUM). The main argument is that whether there are differences between teaching and learning for academic component versus military component at the university. It is further argued that in order to achieve excellence, there should be one teaching and learning culture. Data were collected through interviews with military cadets. It is found that there are variations of teaching and learning strategies for academic courses, in comparison to a dominant teaching and learning style for military courses. Thus, in the interest of delivering quality education and training for students at the university, the paper argues that possibly a hybrid model for teaching and learning is fundamental in order to generate a one culture of academic and military excellence for the NDUM.

  11. Modelling supervisory controller for hybrid power systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pereira, A; Bindner, H; Lundsager, P [Risoe National Lab., Roskilde (Denmark); Jannerup, O [Technical Univ. of Denmark, Dept. of Automation, Lyngby (Denmark)

    1999-03-01

    Supervisory controllers are important to achieve optimal operation of hybrid power systems. The performance and economics of such systems depend mainly on the control strategy for switching on/off components. The modular concept described in this paper is an attempt to design standard supervisory controllers that could be used in different applications, such as village power and telecommunication applications. This paper presents some basic aspects of modelling and design of modular supervisory controllers using the object-oriented modelling technique. The functional abstraction hierarchy technique is used to formulate the control requirements and identify the functions of the control system. The modular algorithm is generic and flexible enough to be used with any system configuration and several goals (different applications). The modularity includes accepting modification of system configuration and goals during operation with minor or no changes in the supervisory controller. (au)

  12. Bootstrap prediction and Bayesian prediction under misspecified models

    OpenAIRE

    Fushiki, Tadayoshi

    2005-01-01

    We consider a statistical prediction problem under misspecified models. In a sense, Bayesian prediction is an optimal prediction method when an assumed model is true. Bootstrap prediction is obtained by applying Breiman's `bagging' method to a plug-in prediction. Bootstrap prediction can be considered to be an approximation to the Bayesian prediction under the assumption that the model is true. However, in applications, there are frequently deviations from the assumed model. In this paper, bo...

  13. Hybrid intelligent methodology to design translation invariant morphological operators for Brazilian stock market prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Araújo, Ricardo de A

    2010-12-01

    This paper presents a hybrid intelligent methodology to design increasing translation invariant morphological operators applied to Brazilian stock market prediction (overcoming the random walk dilemma). The proposed Translation Invariant Morphological Robust Automatic phase-Adjustment (TIMRAA) method consists of a hybrid intelligent model composed of a Modular Morphological Neural Network (MMNN) with a Quantum-Inspired Evolutionary Algorithm (QIEA), which searches for the best time lags to reconstruct the phase space of the time series generator phenomenon and determines the initial (sub-optimal) parameters of the MMNN. Each individual of the QIEA population is further trained by the Back Propagation (BP) algorithm to improve the MMNN parameters supplied by the QIEA. Also, for each prediction model generated, it uses a behavioral statistical test and a phase fix procedure to adjust time phase distortions observed in stock market time series. Furthermore, an experimental analysis is conducted with the proposed method through four Brazilian stock market time series, and the achieved results are discussed and compared to results found with random walk models and the previously introduced Time-delay Added Evolutionary Forecasting (TAEF) and Morphological-Rank-Linear Time-lag Added Evolutionary Forecasting (MRLTAEF) methods. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Hybrid model for forecasting time series with trend, seasonal and salendar variation patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suhartono; Rahayu, S. P.; Prastyo, D. D.; Wijayanti, D. G. P.; Juliyanto

    2017-09-01

    Most of the monthly time series data in economics and business in Indonesia and other Moslem countries not only contain trend and seasonal, but also affected by two types of calendar variation effects, i.e. the effect of the number of working days or trading and holiday effects. The purpose of this research is to develop a hybrid model or a combination of several forecasting models to predict time series that contain trend, seasonal and calendar variation patterns. This hybrid model is a combination of classical models (namely time series regression and ARIMA model) and/or modern methods (artificial intelligence method, i.e. Artificial Neural Networks). A simulation study was used to show that the proposed procedure for building the hybrid model could work well for forecasting time series with trend, seasonal and calendar variation patterns. Furthermore, the proposed hybrid model is applied for forecasting real data, i.e. monthly data about inflow and outflow of currency at Bank Indonesia. The results show that the hybrid model tend to provide more accurate forecasts than individual forecasting models. Moreover, this result is also in line with the third results of the M3 competition, i.e. the hybrid model on average provides a more accurate forecast than the individual model.

  15. A Hybrid Tsunami Risk Model for Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haseemkunju, A. V.; Smith, D. F.; Khater, M.; Khemici, O.; Betov, B.; Scott, J.

    2014-12-01

    Around the margins of the Pacific Ocean, denser oceanic plates slipping under continental plates cause subduction earthquakes generating large tsunami waves. The subducting Pacific and Philippine Sea plates create damaging interplate earthquakes followed by huge tsunami waves. It was a rupture of the Japan Trench subduction zone (JTSZ) and the resultant M9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake that caused the unprecedented tsunami along the Pacific coast of Japan on March 11, 2011. EQECAT's Japan Earthquake model is a fully probabilistic model which includes a seismo-tectonic model describing the geometries, magnitudes, and frequencies of all potential earthquake events; a ground motion model; and a tsunami model. Within the much larger set of all modeled earthquake events, fault rupture parameters for about 24000 stochastic and 25 historical tsunamigenic earthquake events are defined to simulate tsunami footprints using the numerical tsunami model COMCOT. A hybrid approach using COMCOT simulated tsunami waves is used to generate inundation footprints, including the impact of tides and flood defenses. Modeled tsunami waves of major historical events are validated against observed data. Modeled tsunami flood depths on 30 m grids together with tsunami vulnerability and financial models are then used to estimate insured loss in Japan from the 2011 tsunami. The primary direct report of damage from the 2011 tsunami is in terms of the number of buildings damaged by municipality in the tsunami affected area. Modeled loss in Japan from the 2011 tsunami is proportional to the number of buildings damaged. A 1000-year return period map of tsunami waves shows high hazard along the west coast of southern Honshu, on the Pacific coast of Shikoku, and on the east coast of Kyushu, primarily associated with major earthquake events on the Nankai Trough subduction zone (NTSZ). The highest tsunami hazard of more than 20m is seen on the Sanriku coast in northern Honshu, associated with the JTSZ.

  16. MODEL PREDICTIVE CONTROL FUNDAMENTALS

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2012-07-02

    Jul 2, 2012 ... signal based on a process model, coping with constraints on inputs and ... paper, we will present an introduction to the theory and application of MPC with Matlab codes ... section 5 presents the simulation results and section 6.

  17. Interior Noise Prediction of the Automobile Based on Hybrid FE-SEA Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. M. Chen

    2011-01-01

    created using hybrid FE-SEA method. The modal density was calculated using analytical method and finite element method; the damping loss factors of the structural and acoustic cavity subsystems were also calculated with analytical method; the coupling loss factors between structure and structure, structure and acoustic cavity were both calculated. Four different kinds of excitations including road excitations, engine mount excitations, sound radiation excitations of the engine, and wind excitations are exerted on the body of automobile when the automobile is running on the road. All the excitations were calculated using virtual prototype technology, computational fluid dynamics (CFD, and experiments realized in the design and development stage. The interior noise of the automobile was predicted and verified at speed of 120 km/h. The predicted and tested overall SPLs of the interior noise were 73.79 and 74.44 dB(A respectively. The comparison results also show that the prediction precision is satisfied, and the effectiveness and reliability of the hybrid FE-SEA model of the automobile is verified.

  18. Adaptive control using a hybrid-neural model: application to a polymerisation reactor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cubillos F.

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available This work presents the use of a hybrid-neural model for predictive control of a plug flow polymerisation reactor. The hybrid-neural model (HNM is based on fundamental conservation laws associated with a neural network (NN used to model the uncertain parameters. By simulations, the performance of this approach was studied for a peroxide-initiated styrene tubular reactor. The HNM was synthesised for a CSTR reactor with a radial basis function neural net (RBFN used to estimate the reaction rates recursively. The adaptive HNM was incorporated in two model predictive control strategies, a direct synthesis scheme and an optimum steady state scheme. Tests for servo and regulator control showed excellent behaviour following different setpoint variations, and rejecting perturbations. The good generalisation and training capacities of hybrid models, associated with the simplicity and robustness characteristics of the MPC formulations, make an attractive combination for the control of a polymerisation reactor.

  19. A muscle model for hybrid muscle activation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Klauer Christian

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available To develop model-based control strategies for Functional Electrical Stimulation (FES in order to support weak voluntary muscle contractions, a hybrid model for describing joint motions induced by concurrent voluntary-and FES induced muscle activation is proposed. It is based on a Hammerstein model – as commonly used in feedback controlled FES – and exemplarily applied to describe the shoulder abduction joint angle. Main component of a Hammerstein muscle model is usually a static input nonlinearity depending on the stimulation intensity. To additionally incorporate voluntary contributions, we extended the static non-linearity by a second input describing the intensity of the voluntary contribution that is estimated by electromyography (EMG measurements – even during active FES. An Artificial Neural Network (ANN is used to describe the static input non-linearity. The output of the ANN drives a second-order linear dynamical system that describes the combined muscle activation and joint angle dynamics. The tunable parameters are adapted to the individual subject by a system identification approach using previously recorded I/O-data. The model has been validated in two healthy subjects yielding RMS values for the joint angle error of 3.56° and 3.44°, respectively.

  20. Hybrid Prediction Method for Aircraft Interior Noise, Phase II

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The goal of the project is research and development of methods for application of the Hybrid FE-SEA method to aircraft vibro-acoustic problems. This proposal...

  1. Melanoma Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing melanoma cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  2. Prediction of monthly regional groundwater levels through hybrid soft-computing techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Fi-John; Chang, Li-Chiu; Huang, Chien-Wei; Kao, I.-Feng

    2016-10-01

    Groundwater systems are intrinsically heterogeneous with dynamic temporal-spatial patterns, which cause great difficulty in quantifying their complex processes, while reliable predictions of regional groundwater levels are commonly needed for managing water resources to ensure proper service of water demands within a region. In this study, we proposed a novel and flexible soft-computing technique that could effectively extract the complex high-dimensional input-output patterns of basin-wide groundwater-aquifer systems in an adaptive manner. The soft-computing models combined the Self Organized Map (SOM) and the Nonlinear Autoregressive with Exogenous Inputs (NARX) network for predicting monthly regional groundwater levels based on hydrologic forcing data. The SOM could effectively classify the temporal-spatial patterns of regional groundwater levels, the NARX could accurately predict the mean of regional groundwater levels for adjusting the selected SOM, the Kriging was used to interpolate the predictions of the adjusted SOM into finer grids of locations, and consequently the prediction of a monthly regional groundwater level map could be obtained. The Zhuoshui River basin in Taiwan was the study case, and its monthly data sets collected from 203 groundwater stations, 32 rainfall stations and 6 flow stations during 2000 and 2013 were used for modelling purpose. The results demonstrated that the hybrid SOM-NARX model could reliably and suitably predict monthly basin-wide groundwater levels with high correlations (R2 > 0.9 in both training and testing cases). The proposed methodology presents a milestone in modelling regional environmental issues and offers an insightful and promising way to predict monthly basin-wide groundwater levels, which is beneficial to authorities for sustainable water resources management.

  3. Modelling bankruptcy prediction models in Slovak companies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kovacova Maria

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available An intensive research from academics and practitioners has been provided regarding models for bankruptcy prediction and credit risk management. In spite of numerous researches focusing on forecasting bankruptcy using traditional statistics techniques (e.g. discriminant analysis and logistic regression and early artificial intelligence models (e.g. artificial neural networks, there is a trend for transition to machine learning models (support vector machines, bagging, boosting, and random forest to predict bankruptcy one year prior to the event. Comparing the performance of this with unconventional approach with results obtained by discriminant analysis, logistic regression, and neural networks application, it has been found that bagging, boosting, and random forest models outperform the others techniques, and that all prediction accuracy in the testing sample improves when the additional variables are included. On the other side the prediction accuracy of old and well known bankruptcy prediction models is quiet high. Therefore, we aim to analyse these in some way old models on the dataset of Slovak companies to validate their prediction ability in specific conditions. Furthermore, these models will be modelled according to new trends by calculating the influence of elimination of selected variables on the overall prediction ability of these models.

  4. Wind Power Ramp Events Prediction with Hybrid Machine Learning Regression Techniques and Reanalysis Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Cornejo-Bueno

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Wind Power Ramp Events (WPREs are large fluctuations of wind power in a short time interval, which lead to strong, undesirable variations in the electric power produced by a wind farm. Its accurate prediction is important in the effort of efficiently integrating wind energy in the electric system, without affecting considerably its stability, robustness and resilience. In this paper, we tackle the problem of predicting WPREs by applying Machine Learning (ML regression techniques. Our approach consists of using variables from atmospheric reanalysis data as predictive inputs for the learning machine, which opens the possibility of hybridizing numerical-physical weather models with ML techniques for WPREs prediction in real systems. Specifically, we have explored the feasibility of a number of state-of-the-art ML regression techniques, such as support vector regression, artificial neural networks (multi-layer perceptrons and extreme learning machines and Gaussian processes to solve the problem. Furthermore, the ERA-Interim reanalysis from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts is the one used in this paper because of its accuracy and high resolution (in both spatial and temporal domains. Aiming at validating the feasibility of our predicting approach, we have carried out an extensive experimental work using real data from three wind farms in Spain, discussing the performance of the different ML regression tested in this wind power ramp event prediction problem.

  5. Predictive models of moth development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Degree-day models link ambient temperature to insect life-stages, making such models valuable tools in integrated pest management. These models increase management efficacy by predicting pest phenology. In Wisconsin, the top insect pest of cranberry production is the cranberry fruitworm, Acrobasis v...

  6. Exploratory Topology Modelling of Form-Active Hybrid Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holden Deleuran, Anders; Pauly, Mark; Tamke, Martin

    2016-01-01

    The development of novel form-active hybrid structures (FAHS) is impeded by a lack of modelling tools that allow for exploratory topology modelling of shaped assemblies. We present a flexible and real-time computational design modelling pipeline developed for the exploratory modelling of FAHS...... that enables designers and engineers to iteratively construct and manipulate form-active hybrid assembly topology on the fly. The pipeline implements Kangaroo2's projection-based methods for modelling hybrid structures consisting of slender beams and cable networks. A selection of design modelling sketches...

  7. Predictive Models and Computational Embryology

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA’s ‘virtual embryo’ project is building an integrative systems biology framework for predictive models of developmental toxicity. One schema involves a knowledge-driven adverse outcome pathway (AOP) framework utilizing information from public databases, standardized ontologies...

  8. HybridGO-Loc: mining hybrid features on gene ontology for predicting subcellular localization of multi-location proteins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, Shibiao; Mak, Man-Wai; Kung, Sun-Yuan

    2014-01-01

    Protein subcellular localization prediction, as an essential step to elucidate the functions in vivo of proteins and identify drugs targets, has been extensively studied in previous decades. Instead of only determining subcellular localization of single-label proteins, recent studies have focused on predicting both single- and multi-location proteins. Computational methods based on Gene Ontology (GO) have been demonstrated to be superior to methods based on other features. However, existing GO-based methods focus on the occurrences of GO terms and disregard their relationships. This paper proposes a multi-label subcellular-localization predictor, namely HybridGO-Loc, that leverages not only the GO term occurrences but also the inter-term relationships. This is achieved by hybridizing the GO frequencies of occurrences and the semantic similarity between GO terms. Given a protein, a set of GO terms are retrieved by searching against the gene ontology database, using the accession numbers of homologous proteins obtained via BLAST search as the keys. The frequency of GO occurrences and semantic similarity (SS) between GO terms are used to formulate frequency vectors and semantic similarity vectors, respectively, which are subsequently hybridized to construct fusion vectors. An adaptive-decision based multi-label support vector machine (SVM) classifier is proposed to classify the fusion vectors. Experimental results based on recent benchmark datasets and a new dataset containing novel proteins show that the proposed hybrid-feature predictor significantly outperforms predictors based on individual GO features as well as other state-of-the-art predictors. For readers' convenience, the HybridGO-Loc server, which is for predicting virus or plant proteins, is available online at http://bioinfo.eie.polyu.edu.hk/HybridGoServer/.

  9. A Lookahead Behavior Model for Multi-Agent Hybrid Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mei Yang

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available In the military field, multi-agent simulation (MAS plays an important role in studying wars statistically. For a military simulation system, which involves large-scale entities and generates a very large number of interactions during the runtime, the issue of how to improve the running efficiency is of great concern for researchers. Current solutions mainly use hybrid simulation to gain fewer updates and synchronizations, where some important continuous models are maintained implicitly to keep the system dynamics, and partial resynchronization (PR is chosen as the preferable state update mechanism. However, problems, such as resynchronization interval selection and cyclic dependency, remain unsolved in PR, which easily lead to low update efficiency and infinite looping of the state update process. To address these problems, this paper proposes a lookahead behavior model (LBM to implement a PR-based hybrid simulation. In LBM, a minimal safe time window is used to predict the interactions between implicit models, upon which the resynchronization interval can be efficiently determined. Moreover, the LBM gives an estimated state value in the lookahead process so as to break the state-dependent cycle. The simulation results show that, compared with traditional mechanisms, LBM requires fewer updates and synchronizations.

  10. Predictive Modeling in Race Walking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krzysztof Wiktorowicz

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the use of linear and nonlinear multivariable models as tools to support training process of race walkers. These models are calculated using data collected from race walkers’ training events and they are used to predict the result over a 3 km race based on training loads. The material consists of 122 training plans for 21 athletes. In order to choose the best model leave-one-out cross-validation method is used. The main contribution of the paper is to propose the nonlinear modifications for linear models in order to achieve smaller prediction error. It is shown that the best model is a modified LASSO regression with quadratic terms in the nonlinear part. This model has the smallest prediction error and simplified structure by eliminating some of the predictors.

  11. A hybrid spatiotemporal drought forecasting model for operational use

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vasiliades, L.; Loukas, A.

    2010-09-01

    Drought forecasting plays an important role in the planning and management of natural resources and water resource systems in a river basin. Early and timelines forecasting of a drought event can help to take proactive measures and set out drought mitigation strategies to alleviate the impacts of drought. Spatiotemporal data mining is the extraction of unknown and implicit knowledge, structures, spatiotemporal relationships, or patterns not explicitly stored in spatiotemporal databases. As one of data mining techniques, forecasting is widely used to predict the unknown future based upon the patterns hidden in the current and past data. This study develops a hybrid spatiotemporal scheme for integrated spatial and temporal forecasting. Temporal forecasting is achieved using feed-forward neural networks and the temporal forecasts are extended to the spatial dimension using a spatial recurrent neural network model. The methodology is demonstrated for an operational meteorological drought index the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) calculated at multiple timescales. 48 precipitation stations and 18 independent precipitation stations, located at Pinios river basin in Thessaly region, Greece, were used for the development and spatiotemporal validation of the hybrid spatiotemporal scheme. Several quantitative temporal and spatial statistical indices were considered for the performance evaluation of the models. Furthermore, qualitative statistical criteria based on contingency tables between observed and forecasted drought episodes were calculated. The results show that the lead time of forecasting for operational use depends on the SPI timescale. The hybrid spatiotemporal drought forecasting model could be operationally used for forecasting up to three months ahead for SPI short timescales (e.g. 3-6 months) up to six months ahead for large SPI timescales (e.g. 24 months). The above findings could be useful in developing a drought preparedness plan in the region.

  12. Modeling the geometric formation and powder deposition mass in laser induction hybrid cladding

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, Yong Jun; Yuan, Sheng Fa

    2012-01-01

    A new laser induction hybrid cladding technique on cylinder work piece is presented. Based on a series of laser induction hybrid experiments by off axial powder feeding, the predicting models of individual clad geometric formation and powder catchment were developed in terms of powder feeding rate, laser special energy and induction energy density using multiple regression analysis. In addition, confirmation tests were performed to make a comparison between the predicting results and measured ones. Via the experiments and analysis, the conclusions can be lead to that the process parameters have crucial influence on the clad geometric formation and powder catchment, and that the predicting model reflects well the relationship between the clad geometric formation and process parameters in laser induction hybrid cladding

  13. Hybrid modeling approach to improve the forecasting capability for the gaseous radionuclide in a nuclear site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeong, Hyojoon; Hwang, Wontae; Kim, Eunhan; Han, Moonhee

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► This study is to improve the reliability of air dispersion modeling. ► Tracer experiments assumed gaseous radionuclides were conducted at a nuclear site. ► The performance of a hybrid modeling combined ISC with ANFIS was investigated.. ► Hybrid modeling approach shows better performance rather than a single ISC model. - Abstract: Predicted air concentrations of radioactive materials are important for an environmental impact assessment for the public health. In this study, the performance of a hybrid modeling combined with the industrial source complex (ISC) model and an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) for predicting tracer concentrations was investigated. Tracer dispersion experiments were performed to produce the field data assuming the accidental release of radioactive material. ANFIS was trained in order that the outputs of the ISC model are similar to the measured data. Judging from the higher correlation coefficients between the measured and the calculated ones, the hybrid modeling approach could be an appropriate technique for an improvement of the modeling capability to predict the air concentrations for radioactive materials.

  14. Daily air quality index forecasting with hybrid models: A case in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhu, Suling; Lian, Xiuyuan; Liu, Haixia; Hu, Jianming; Wang, Yuanyuan; Che, Jinxing

    2017-01-01

    proposed hybrid models can be used as effective and simple tools for air pollution forecasting and warning as well as for management. - Highlights: • Effective information in AQI series is extracted by EMD. • EMD-IMFs-Hybrid and EMD-SVR-Hybrid models are firstly proposed for AQI prediction. • The proposed hybrid models are superior to other forecasting models. • The hybrid model can be used to forecast other pollution indexes.

  15. Modelling of JET hybrid scenarios with GLF23 transport model: E × B shear stabilization of anomalous transport

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Voitsekhovitch, I.; Belo, da Silva Ares; Citrin, J.; Fable, E.; Ferreira, J.; Garcia, J.; Garzotti, L.; Hobirk, J.; Hogeweij, G. M. D.; Joffrin, E.; Kochl, F.; Litaudon, X.; Moradi, S.; Nabais, F.; JET-EFDA Contributors,; EU-ITM ITER Scenario Modelling group,

    2014-01-01

    The E × B shear stabilization of anomalous transport in JET hybrid discharges is studied via self-consistent predictive modelling of electron and ion temperature, ion density and toroidal rotation velocity performed with the GLF23 model. The E × B shear

  16. A Probability-Based Hybrid User Model for Recommendation System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jia Hao

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available With the rapid development of information communication technology, the available information or knowledge is exponentially increased, and this causes the well-known information overload phenomenon. This problem is more serious in product design corporations because over half of the valuable design time is consumed in knowledge acquisition, which highly extends the design cycle and weakens the competitiveness. Therefore, the recommender systems become very important in the domain of product domain. This research presents a probability-based hybrid user model, which is a combination of collaborative filtering and content-based filtering. This hybrid model utilizes user ratings and item topics or classes, which are available in the domain of product design, to predict the knowledge requirement. The comprehensive analysis of the experimental results shows that the proposed method gains better performance in most of the parameter settings. This work contributes a probability-based method to the community for implement recommender system when only user ratings and item topics are available.

  17. Identification and Prediction of Large Pedestrian Flow in Urban Areas Based on a Hybrid Detection Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kaisheng Zhang

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Recently, population density has grown quickly with the increasing acceleration of urbanization. At the same time, overcrowded situations are more likely to occur in populous urban areas, increasing the risk of accidents. This paper proposes a synthetic approach to recognize and identify the large pedestrian flow. In particular, a hybrid pedestrian flow detection model was constructed by analyzing real data from major mobile phone operators in China, including information from smartphones and base stations (BS. With the hybrid model, the Log Distance Path Loss (LDPL model was used to estimate the pedestrian density from raw network data, and retrieve information with the Gaussian Progress (GP through supervised learning. Temporal-spatial prediction of the pedestrian data was carried out with Machine Learning (ML approaches. Finally, a case study of a real Central Business District (CBD scenario in Shanghai, China using records of millions of cell phone users was conducted. The results showed that the new approach significantly increases the utility and capacity of the mobile network. A more reasonable overcrowding detection and alert system can be developed to improve safety in subway lines and other hotspot landmark areas, such as the Bundle, People’s Square or Disneyland, where a large passenger flow generally exists.

  18. SNBRFinder: A Sequence-Based Hybrid Algorithm for Enhanced Prediction of Nucleic Acid-Binding Residues.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoxia Yang

    Full Text Available Protein-nucleic acid interactions are central to various fundamental biological processes. Automated methods capable of reliably identifying DNA- and RNA-binding residues in protein sequence are assuming ever-increasing importance. The majority of current algorithms rely on feature-based prediction, but their accuracy remains to be further improved. Here we propose a sequence-based hybrid algorithm SNBRFinder (Sequence-based Nucleic acid-Binding Residue Finder by merging a feature predictor SNBRFinderF and a template predictor SNBRFinderT. SNBRFinderF was established using the support vector machine whose inputs include sequence profile and other complementary sequence descriptors, while SNBRFinderT was implemented with the sequence alignment algorithm based on profile hidden Markov models to capture the weakly homologous template of query sequence. Experimental results show that SNBRFinderF was clearly superior to the commonly used sequence profile-based predictor and SNBRFinderT can achieve comparable performance to the structure-based template methods. Leveraging the complementary relationship between these two predictors, SNBRFinder reasonably improved the performance of both DNA- and RNA-binding residue predictions. More importantly, the sequence-based hybrid prediction reached competitive performance relative to our previous structure-based counterpart. Our extensive and stringent comparisons show that SNBRFinder has obvious advantages over the existing sequence-based prediction algorithms. The value of our algorithm is highlighted by establishing an easy-to-use web server that is freely accessible at http://ibi.hzau.edu.cn/SNBRFinder.

  19. Transient Model of Hybrid Concentrated Photovoltaic with Thermoelectric Generator

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mahmoudi Nezhad, Sajjad; Qing, Shaowei; Rezaniakolaei, Alireza

    2017-01-01

    Transient performance of a concentrated photovoltaic thermoelectric (CPV-TEG) hybrid system is modeled and investigated. A heat sink with water, as the working fluid has been implemented as the cold reservoir of the hybrid system to harvest the heat loss from CPV cell and to increase the efficiency...

  20. Genomic Prediction of Single Crosses in the Early Stages of a Maize Hybrid Breeding Pipeline

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dnyaneshwar C. Kadam

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Prediction of single-cross performance has been a major goal of plant breeders since the beginning of hybrid breeding. Recently, genomic prediction has shown to be a promising approach, but only limited studies have examined the accuracy of predicting single-cross performance. Moreover, no studies have examined the potential of predicting single crosses among random inbreds derived from a series of biparental families, which resembles the structure of germplasm comprising the initial stages of a hybrid maize breeding pipeline. The main objectives of this study were to evaluate the potential of genomic prediction for identifying superior single crosses early in the hybrid breeding pipeline and optimize its application. To accomplish these objectives, we designed and analyzed a novel population of single crosses representing the Iowa Stiff Stalk synthetic/non-Stiff Stalk heterotic pattern commonly used in the development of North American commercial maize hybrids. The performance of single crosses was predicted using parental combining ability and covariance among single crosses. Prediction accuracies were estimated using cross-validation and ranged from 0.28 to 0.77 for grain yield, 0.53 to 0.91 for plant height, and 0.49 to 0.94 for staygreen, depending on the number of tested parents of the single cross and genomic prediction method used. The genomic estimated general and specific combining abilities showed an advantage over genomic covariances among single crosses when one or both parents of the single cross were untested. Overall, our results suggest that genomic prediction of single crosses in the early stages of a hybrid breeding pipeline holds great potential to redesign hybrid breeding and increase its efficiency.

  1. Design, analysis and modeling of a novel hybrid powertrain system based on hybridized automated manual transmission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Guang; Dong, Zuomin

    2017-09-01

    Hybrid electric vehicles are widely accepted as a promising short to mid-term technical solution due to noticeably improved efficiency and lower emissions at competitive costs. In recent years, various hybrid powertrain systems were proposed and implemented based on different types of conventional transmission. Power-split system, including Toyota Hybrid System and Ford Hybrid System, are well-known examples. However, their relatively low torque capacity, and the drive of alternative and more advanced designs encouraged other innovative hybrid system designs. In this work, a new type of hybrid powertrain system based hybridized automated manual transmission (HAMT) is proposed. By using the concept of torque gap filler (TGF), this new hybrid powertrain type has the potential to overcome issue of torque gap during gearshift. The HAMT design (patent pending) is described in details, from gear layout and design of gear ratios (EV mode and HEV mode) to torque paths at different gears. As an analytical tool, mutli-body model of vehicle equipped with this HAMT was built to analyze powertrain dynamics at various steady and transient modes. A gearshift was decomposed and analyzed based basic modes. Furthermore, a Simulink-SimDriveline hybrid vehicle model was built for the new transmission, driveline and vehicle modular. Control strategy has also been built to harmonically coordinate different powertrain components to realize TGF function. A vehicle launch simulation test has been completed under 30% of accelerator pedal position to reveal details during gearshift. Simulation results showed that this HAMT can eliminate most torque gap that has been persistent issue of traditional AMT, improving both drivability and performance. This work demonstrated a new type of transmission that features high torque capacity, high efficiency and improved drivability.

  2. Performance modeling of hybrid MPI/OpenMP scientific applications on large-scale multicore supercomputers

    KAUST Repository

    Wu, Xingfu; Taylor, Valerie

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we present a performance modeling framework based on memory bandwidth contention time and a parameterized communication model to predict the performance of OpenMP, MPI and hybrid applications with weak scaling on three large-scale multicore supercomputers: IBM POWER4, POWER5+ and BlueGene/P, and analyze the performance of these MPI, OpenMP and hybrid applications. We use STREAM memory benchmarks and Intel's MPI benchmarks to provide initial performance analysis and model validation of MPI and OpenMP applications on these multicore supercomputers because the measured sustained memory bandwidth can provide insight into the memory bandwidth that a system should sustain on scientific applications with the same amount of workload per core. In addition to using these benchmarks, we also use a weak-scaling hybrid MPI/OpenMP large-scale scientific application: Gyrokinetic Toroidal Code (GTC) in magnetic fusion to validate our performance model of the hybrid application on these multicore supercomputers. The validation results for our performance modeling method show less than 7.77% error rate in predicting the performance of hybrid MPI/OpenMP GTC on up to 512 cores on these multicore supercomputers. © 2013 Elsevier Inc.

  3. Performance modeling of hybrid MPI/OpenMP scientific applications on large-scale multicore supercomputers

    KAUST Repository

    Wu, Xingfu

    2013-12-01

    In this paper, we present a performance modeling framework based on memory bandwidth contention time and a parameterized communication model to predict the performance of OpenMP, MPI and hybrid applications with weak scaling on three large-scale multicore supercomputers: IBM POWER4, POWER5+ and BlueGene/P, and analyze the performance of these MPI, OpenMP and hybrid applications. We use STREAM memory benchmarks and Intel\\'s MPI benchmarks to provide initial performance analysis and model validation of MPI and OpenMP applications on these multicore supercomputers because the measured sustained memory bandwidth can provide insight into the memory bandwidth that a system should sustain on scientific applications with the same amount of workload per core. In addition to using these benchmarks, we also use a weak-scaling hybrid MPI/OpenMP large-scale scientific application: Gyrokinetic Toroidal Code (GTC) in magnetic fusion to validate our performance model of the hybrid application on these multicore supercomputers. The validation results for our performance modeling method show less than 7.77% error rate in predicting the performance of hybrid MPI/OpenMP GTC on up to 512 cores on these multicore supercomputers. © 2013 Elsevier Inc.

  4. MPC-based energy management with adaptive Markov-chain prediction for a dual-mode hybrid electric vehicle

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XIANG; ChangLe; DING; Feng; WANG; WeiDa; HE; Wei; QI; YunLong

    2017-01-01

    The and energy to management strategy battery is state an important part of a hybrid electrical vehicle design.It is used to improve various fuel economy sustain a proper of charge an by controlling control the power components is while satisfying to constraints and driving demands.However,achieving optimal and performance challenging due the nonlinearities of the hybrid powertrain,conflicting vehicle the time varying constraints,the dilemma capable in which controller control complexity and real-time capability are generally objectives.In this paper,a of real-time cascaded complies strategy is proposed for a dual-mode hybrid electric that considers controller based nonlinearities based the system model and with all time-varying with constraints.sampling The strategy consists of a supervisory controller on a non-linear predictive control short(MPC)sampling a long time with future strategy interval and a coordinating on linear model predictive based control with a time interval to deal different load dynamics of the system.The Additionally,a novel data methodology using adaptive Markov chains to predict demand is introduced.predictive future information is used to improve controller cycles performance.conducted.The The proposed is implemented validity on a real test-bed approach and experimental trials using economy unknown is driving are results other demonstrate the of the proposed and show that fuel significantly improved compared with methods.

  5. MPC-based energy management with adaptive Markov-chain prediction for a dual-mode hybrid electric vehicle

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XIANG ChangLe; DING Feng; WANG WeiDa; HE Wei; QI YunLong

    2017-01-01

    The energy management strategy is an important part of a hybrid electrical vehicle design.It is used to improve fuel economy and to sustain a proper battery state of charge by controlling the power components while satisfying various constraints and driving demands.However,achieving an optimal control performance is challenging due to the nonlinearities of the hybrid powertrain,the time varying constraints,and the dilemma in which controller complexity and real-time capability are generally conflicting objectives.In this paper,a real-time capable cascaded control strategy is proposed for a dual-mode hybrid electric vehicle that considers nonlinearities of the system and complies with all time-varying constraints.The strategy consists of a supervisory controller based on a non-linear model predictive control (MPC) with a long sampling time interval and a coordinating controller based on linear model predictive control with a short sampling time interval to deal with different dynamics of the system.Additionally,a novel data based methodology using adaptive Markov chains to predict future load demand is introduced.The predictive future information is used to improve controller performance.The proposed strategy is implemented on a real test-bed and experimental trials using unknown driving cycles are conducted.The results demonstrate the validity of the proposed approach and show that fuel economy is significantly improved compared with other methods.

  6. Developing hybrid approaches to predict pKa values of ionizable groups

    Science.gov (United States)

    Witham, Shawn; Talley, Kemper; Wang, Lin; Zhang, Zhe; Sarkar, Subhra; Gao, Daquan; Yang, Wei

    2011-01-01

    Accurate predictions of pKa values of titratable groups require taking into account all relevant processes associated with the ionization/deionization. Frequently, however, the ionization does not involve significant structural changes and the dominating effects are purely electrostatic in origin allowing accurate predictions to be made based on the electrostatic energy difference between ionized and neutral forms alone using a static structure. On another hand, if the change of the charge state is accompanied by a structural reorganization of the target protein, then the relevant conformational changes have to be taken into account in the pKa calculations. Here we report a hybrid approach that first predicts the titratable groups, which ionization is expected to cause conformational changes, termed “problematic” residues, then applies a special protocol on them, while the rest of the pKa’s are predicted with rigid backbone approach as implemented in multi-conformation continuum electrostatics (MCCE) method. The backbone representative conformations for “problematic” groups are generated with either molecular dynamics simulations with charged and uncharged amino acid or with ab-initio local segment modeling. The corresponding ensembles are then used to calculate the pKa of the “problematic” residues and then the results are averaged. PMID:21744395

  7. Bond graph model-based fault diagnosis of hybrid systems

    CERN Document Server

    Borutzky, Wolfgang

    2015-01-01

    This book presents a bond graph model-based approach to fault diagnosis in mechatronic systems appropriately represented by a hybrid model. The book begins by giving a survey of the fundamentals of fault diagnosis and failure prognosis, then recalls state-of-art developments referring to latest publications, and goes on to discuss various bond graph representations of hybrid system models, equations formulation for switched systems, and simulation of their dynamic behavior. The structured text: • focuses on bond graph model-based fault detection and isolation in hybrid systems; • addresses isolation of multiple parametric faults in hybrid systems; • considers system mode identification; • provides a number of elaborated case studies that consider fault scenarios for switched power electronic systems commonly used in a variety of applications; and • indicates that bond graph modelling can also be used for failure prognosis. In order to facilitate the understanding of fault diagnosis and the presented...

  8. Hybrid model for simulation of plasma jet injection in tokamak

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galkin, Sergei A.; Bogatu, I. N.

    2016-10-01

    Hybrid kinetic model of plasma treats the ions as kinetic particles and the electrons as charge neutralizing massless fluid. The model is essentially applicable when most of the energy is concentrated in the ions rather than in the electrons, i.e. it is well suited for the high-density hyper-velocity C60 plasma jet. The hybrid model separates the slower ion time scale from the faster electron time scale, which becomes disregardable. That is why hybrid codes consistently outperform the traditional PIC codes in computational efficiency, still resolving kinetic ions effects. We discuss 2D hybrid model and code with exact energy conservation numerical algorithm and present some results of its application to simulation of C60 plasma jet penetration through tokamak-like magnetic barrier. We also examine the 3D model/code extension and its possible applications to tokamak and ionospheric plasmas. The work is supported in part by US DOE DE-SC0015776 Grant.

  9. A hybrid approach to predict the relationship between tablet tensile strength and compaction pressure using analytical powder compression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Persson, Ann-Sofie; Alderborn, Göran

    2018-04-01

    The objective was to present a hybrid approach to predict the strength-pressure relationship (SPR) of tablets using common compression parameters and a single measurement of tablet tensile strength. Experimental SPR were derived for six pharmaceutical powders with brittle and ductile properties and compared to predicted SPR based on a three-stage approach. The prediction was based on the Kawakita b -1 parameter and the in-die Heckel yield stress, an estimate of maximal tensile strength, and a parameter proportionality factor α. Three values of α were used to investigate the influence of the parameter on the SPR. The experimental SPR could satisfactorily be described by the three stage model, however for sodium bicarbonate the tensile strength plateau could not be observed experimentally. The shape of the predicted SPR was to a minor extent influenced by the Kawakita b -1 but the width of the linear region was highly influenced by α. An increased α increased the width of the linear region and thus also the maximal predicted tablet tensile strength. Furthermore, the correspondence between experimental and predicted SPR was influenced by the α value and satisfactory predictions were in general obtained for α = 4.1 indicating the predictive potential of the hybrid approach. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. A new approach to flow simulation using hybrid models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solgi, Abazar; Zarei, Heidar; Nourani, Vahid; Bahmani, Ramin

    2017-11-01

    The necessity of flow prediction in rivers, for proper management of water resource, and the need for determining the inflow to the dam reservoir, designing efficient flood warning systems and so forth, have always led water researchers to think about models with high-speed response and low error. In the recent years, the development of Artificial Neural Networks and Wavelet theory and using the combination of models help researchers to estimate the river flow better and better. In this study, daily and monthly scales were used for simulating the flow of Gamasiyab River, Nahavand, Iran. The first simulation was done using two types of ANN and ANFIS models. Then, using wavelet theory and decomposing input signals of the used parameters, sub-signals were obtained and were fed into the ANN and ANFIS to obtain hybrid models of WANN and WANFIS. In this study, in addition to the parameters of precipitation and flow, parameters of temperature and evaporation were used to analyze their effects on the simulation. The results showed that using wavelet transform improved the performance of the models in both monthly and daily scale. However, it had a better effect on the monthly scale and the WANFIS was the best model.

  11. A hybrid genetic algorithm and linear regression for prediction of NOx emission in power generation plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bunyamin, Muhammad Afif; Yap, Keem Siah; Aziz, Nur Liyana Afiqah Abdul; Tiong, Sheih Kiong; Wong, Shen Yuong; Kamal, Md Fauzan

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a new approach of gas emission estimation in power generation plant using a hybrid Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Linear Regression (LR) (denoted as GA-LR). The LR is one of the approaches that model the relationship between an output dependant variable, y, with one or more explanatory variables or inputs which denoted as x. It is able to estimate unknown model parameters from inputs data. On the other hand, GA is used to search for the optimal solution until specific criteria is met causing termination. These results include providing good solutions as compared to one optimal solution for complex problems. Thus, GA is widely used as feature selection. By combining the LR and GA (GA-LR), this new technique is able to select the most important input features as well as giving more accurate prediction by minimizing the prediction errors. This new technique is able to produce more consistent of gas emission estimation, which may help in reducing population to the environment. In this paper, the study's interest is focused on nitrous oxides (NOx) prediction. The results of the experiment are encouraging.

  12. Web tools for predictive toxicology model building.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeliazkova, Nina

    2012-07-01

    The development and use of web tools in chemistry has accumulated more than 15 years of history already. Powered by the advances in the Internet technologies, the current generation of web systems are starting to expand into areas, traditional for desktop applications. The web platforms integrate data storage, cheminformatics and data analysis tools. The ease of use and the collaborative potential of the web is compelling, despite the challenges. The topic of this review is a set of recently published web tools that facilitate predictive toxicology model building. The focus is on software platforms, offering web access to chemical structure-based methods, although some of the frameworks could also provide bioinformatics or hybrid data analysis functionalities. A number of historical and current developments are cited. In order to provide comparable assessment, the following characteristics are considered: support for workflows, descriptor calculations, visualization, modeling algorithms, data management and data sharing capabilities, availability of GUI or programmatic access and implementation details. The success of the Web is largely due to its highly decentralized, yet sufficiently interoperable model for information access. The expected future convergence between cheminformatics and bioinformatics databases provides new challenges toward management and analysis of large data sets. The web tools in predictive toxicology will likely continue to evolve toward the right mix of flexibility, performance, scalability, interoperability, sets of unique features offered, friendly user interfaces, programmatic access for advanced users, platform independence, results reproducibility, curation and crowdsourcing utilities, collaborative sharing and secure access.

  13. Simulation of hybrid vehicle propulsion with an advanced battery model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nallabolu, S.; Kostetzer, L.; Rudnyi, E. [CADFEM GmbH, Grafing (Germany); Geppert, M.; Quinger, D. [LION Smart GmbH, Frieding (Germany)

    2011-07-01

    In the recent years there has been observed an increasing concern about global warming and greenhouse gas emissions. In addition to the environmental issues the predicted scarcity of oil supplies and the dramatic increase in oil price puts new demands on vehicle design. As a result energy efficiency and reduced emission have become one of main selling point for automobiles. Hybrid electric vehicles (HEV) have therefore become an interesting technology for the governments and automotive industries. HEV are more complicated compared to conventional vehicles due to the fact that these vehicles contain more electrical components such as electric machines, power electronics, electronic continuously variable transmissions (CVT), and embedded powertrain controllers. Advanced energy storage devices and energy converters, such as Li-ion batteries, ultracapacitors, and fuel cells are also considered. A detailed vehicle model used for an energy flow analysis and vehicle performance simulation is necessary. Computer simulation is indispensible to facilitate the examination of the vast hybrid electric vehicle design space with the aim to predict the vehicle performance over driving profiles, estimate fuel consumption and the pollution emissions. There are various types of mathematical models and simulators available to perform system simulation of vehicle propulsion. One of the standard methods to model the complete vehicle powertrain is ''backward quasistatic modeling''. In this method vehicle subsystems are defined based on experiential models in the form of look-up tables and efficiency maps. The interaction between adjacent subsystems of the vehicle is defined through the amount of power flow. Modeling the vehicle subsystems like motor, engine, gearbox and battery is under this technique is based on block diagrams. The vehicle model is applied in two case studies to evaluate the vehicle performance and fuel consumption. In the first case study the affect

  14. Numerical Prediction of Combustion-induced Noise using a hybrid LES/CAA approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ihme, Matthias; Pitsch, Heinz; Kaltenbacher, Manfred

    2006-11-01

    Noise generation in technical devices is an increasingly important problem. Jet engines in particular produce sound levels that not only are a nuisance but may also impair hearing. The noise emitted by such engines is generated by different sources such as jet exhaust, fans or turbines, and combustion. Whereas the former acoustic mechanisms are reasonably well understood, combustion-generated noise is not. A methodology for the prediction of combustion-generated noise is developed. In this hybrid approach unsteady acoustic source terms are obtained from an LES and the propagation of pressure perturbations are obtained using acoustic analogies. Lighthill's acoustic analogy and a non-linear wave equation, accounting for variable speed of sound, have been employed. Both models are applied to an open diffusion flame. The effects on the far field pressure and directivity due to the variation of speed of sound are analyzed. Results for the sound pressure level will be compared with experimental data.

  15. Predictive integrated modelling for ITER scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Artaud, J.F.; Imbeaux, F.; Aniel, T.; Basiuk, V.; Eriksson, L.G.; Giruzzi, G.; Hoang, G.T.; Huysmans, G.; Joffrin, E.; Peysson, Y.; Schneider, M.; Thomas, P.

    2005-01-01

    The uncertainty on the prediction of ITER scenarios is evaluated. 2 transport models which have been extensively validated against the multi-machine database are used for the computation of the transport coefficients. The first model is GLF23, the second called Kiauto is a model in which the profile of dilution coefficient is a gyro Bohm-like analytical function, renormalized in order to get profiles consistent with a given global energy confinement scaling. The package of codes CRONOS is used, it gives access to the dynamics of the discharge and allows the study of interplay between heat transport, current diffusion and sources. The main motivation of this work is to study the influence of parameters such plasma current, heat, density, impurities and toroidal moment transport. We can draw the following conclusions: 1) the target Q = 10 can be obtained in ITER hybrid scenario at I p = 13 MA, using either the DS03 two terms scaling or the GLF23 model based on the same pedestal; 2) I p = 11.3 MA, Q = 10 can be reached only assuming a very peaked pressure profile and a low pedestal; 3) at fixed Greenwald fraction, Q increases with density peaking; 4) achieving a stationary q-profile with q > 1 requires a large non-inductive current fraction (80%) that could be provided by 20 to 40 MW of LHCD; and 5) owing to the high temperature the q-profile penetration is delayed and q = 1 is reached about 600 s in ITER hybrid scenario at I p = 13 MA, in the absence of active q-profile control. (A.C.)

  16. A Structural Model Decomposition Framework for Hybrid Systems Diagnosis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daigle, Matthew; Bregon, Anibal; Roychoudhury, Indranil

    2015-01-01

    Nowadays, a large number of practical systems in aerospace and industrial environments are best represented as hybrid systems that consist of discrete modes of behavior, each defined by a set of continuous dynamics. These hybrid dynamics make the on-line fault diagnosis task very challenging. In this work, we present a new modeling and diagnosis framework for hybrid systems. Models are composed from sets of user-defined components using a compositional modeling approach. Submodels for residual generation are then generated for a given mode, and reconfigured efficiently when the mode changes. Efficient reconfiguration is established by exploiting causality information within the hybrid system models. The submodels can then be used for fault diagnosis based on residual generation and analysis. We demonstrate the efficient causality reassignment, submodel reconfiguration, and residual generation for fault diagnosis using an electrical circuit case study.

  17. Model for optimum design of standalone hybrid renewable energy ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    An optimization model for the design of a hybrid renewable energy microgrid ... and increasing the rated power of the wind energy conversion system (WECS) or solar ... a 70% reduction in gas emissions and an 80% reduction in energy costs.

  18. Hybrid Modelling of Individual Movement and Collective Behaviour

    KAUST Repository

    Franz, Benjamin

    2013-01-01

    Mathematical models of dispersal in biological systems are often written in terms of partial differential equations (PDEs) which describe the time evolution of population-level variables (concentrations, densities). A more detailed modelling approach is given by individual-based (agent-based) models which describe the behaviour of each organism. In recent years, an intermediate modelling methodology - hybrid modelling - has been applied to a number of biological systems. These hybrid models couple an individual-based description of cells/animals with a PDE-model of their environment. In this chapter, we overview hybrid models in the literature with the focus on the mathematical challenges of this modelling approach. The detailed analysis is presented using the example of chemotaxis, where cells move according to extracellular chemicals that can be altered by the cells themselves. In this case, individual-based models of cells are coupled with PDEs for extracellular chemical signals. Travelling waves in these hybrid models are investigated. In particular, we show that in contrary to the PDEs, hybrid chemotaxis models only develop a transient travelling wave. © 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

  19. Nuclear Hybrid Energy System Modeling: RELAP5 Dynamic Coupling Capabilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Piyush Sabharwall; Nolan Anderson; Haihua Zhao; Shannon Bragg-Sitton; George Mesina

    2012-09-01

    The nuclear hybrid energy systems (NHES) research team is currently developing a dynamic simulation of an integrated hybrid energy system. A detailed simulation of proposed NHES architectures will allow initial computational demonstration of a tightly coupled NHES to identify key reactor subsystem requirements, identify candidate reactor technologies for a hybrid system, and identify key challenges to operation of the coupled system. This work will provide a baseline for later coupling of design-specific reactor models through industry collaboration. The modeling capability addressed in this report focuses on the reactor subsystem simulation.

  20. Coupled thermal model of photovoltaic-thermoelectric hybrid panel for sample cities in Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rezaniakolaei, Alireza; Sera, Dezso; Rosendahl, Lasse Aistrup

    2016-01-01

    of the hybrid system under different weather conditions. The model takes into account solar irradiation, wind speed and ambient temperature as well as convective and radiated heat losses from the front and rear surfaces of the panel. The model is developed for three sample cities in Europe with different......In general, modeling of photovoltaic-thermoelectric (PV/TEG) hybrid panels have been mostly simplified and disconnected from the actual ambient conditions and thermal losses from the panel. In this study, a thermally coupled model of PV/TEG panel is established to precisely predict performance...... weather conditions. The results show that radiated heat loss from the front surface and the convective heat loss due to the wind speed are the most critical parameters on performance of the hybrid panel performance. The results also indicate that, with existing thermoelectric materials, the power...

  1. Modelling biochemical networks with intrinsic time delays: a hybrid semi-parametric approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oliveira Rui

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background This paper presents a method for modelling dynamical biochemical networks with intrinsic time delays. Since the fundamental mechanisms leading to such delays are many times unknown, non conventional modelling approaches become necessary. Herein, a hybrid semi-parametric identification methodology is proposed in which discrete time series are incorporated into fundamental material balance models. This integration results in hybrid delay differential equations which can be applied to identify unknown cellular dynamics. Results The proposed hybrid modelling methodology was evaluated using two case studies. The first of these deals with dynamic modelling of transcriptional factor A in mammalian cells. The protein transport from the cytosol to the nucleus introduced a delay that was accounted for by discrete time series formulation. The second case study focused on a simple network with distributed time delays that demonstrated that the discrete time delay formalism has broad applicability to both discrete and distributed delay problems. Conclusions Significantly better prediction qualities of the novel hybrid model were obtained when compared to dynamical structures without time delays, being the more distinctive the more significant the underlying system delay is. The identification of the system delays by studies of different discrete modelling delays was enabled by the proposed structure. Further, it was shown that the hybrid discrete delay methodology is not limited to discrete delay systems. The proposed method is a powerful tool to identify time delays in ill-defined biochemical networks.

  2. A hybrid Scatter/Transform cloaking model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gad Licht

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A new Scatter/Transform cloak is developed that combines the light bending of refraction characteristic of a Transform cloak with the scatter cancellation characteristic of a Scatter cloak. The hybrid cloak incorporates both Transform’s variable index of refraction with modified linear intrusions to maximize the Scatter cloak effect. Scatter/Transform improved the scattering cross-section of cloaking in a 2-dimensional space to 51.7% compared to only 39.6% or 45.1% respectively with either Scatter or Transform alone. Metamaterials developed with characteristics based on the new ST hybrid cloak will exhibit superior cloaking capabilities.

  3. Prediction of AL and Dst Indices from ACE Measurements Using Hybrid Physics/Black-Box Techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spencer, E.; Rao, A.; Horton, W.; Mays, L.

    2008-12-01

    ACE measurements of the solar wind velocity, IMF and proton density is used to drive a hybrid Physics/Black- Box model of the nightside magnetosphere. The core physics is contained in a low order nonlinear dynamical model of the nightside magnetosphere called WINDMI. The model is augmented by wavelet based nonlinear mappings between the solar wind quantities and the input into the physics model, followed by further wavelet based mappings of the model output field aligned currents onto the ground based magnetometer measurements of the AL index and Dst index. The black box mappings are introduced at the input stage to account for uncertainties in the way the solar wind quantities are transported from the ACE spacecraft at L1 to the magnetopause. Similar mappings are introduced at the output stage to account for a spatially and temporally varying westward auroral electrojet geometry. The parameters of the model are tuned using a genetic algorithm, and trained using the large geomagnetic storm dataset of October 3-7 2000. It's predictive performance is then evaluated on subsequent storm datasets, in particular the April 15-24 2002 storm. This work is supported by grant NSF 7020201

  4. Predicting Hybrid Performances for Quality Traits through Genomic-Assisted Approaches in Central European Wheat

    KAUST Repository

    Liu, Guozheng

    2016-07-06

    Bread-making quality traits are central targets for wheat breeding. The objectives of our study were to (1) examine the presence of major effect QTLs for quality traits in a Central European elite wheat population, (2) explore the optimal strategy for predicting the hybrid performance for wheat quality traits, and (3) investigate the effects of marker density and the composition and size of the training population on the accuracy of prediction of hybrid performance. In total 135 inbred lines of Central European bread wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and 1,604 hybrids derived from them were evaluated for seven quality traits in up to six environments. The 135 parental lines were genotyped using a 90k single-nucleotide polymorphism array. Genome-wide association mapping initially suggested presence of several quantitative trait loci (QTLs), but cross-validation rather indicated the absence of major effect QTLs for all quality traits except of 1000-kernel weight. Genomic selection substantially outperformed marker-assisted selection in predicting hybrid performance. A resampling study revealed that increasing the effective population size in the estimation set of hybrids is relevant to boost the accuracy of prediction for an unrelated test population.

  5. Predicting Hybrid Performances for Quality Traits through Genomic-Assisted Approaches in Central European Wheat.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guozheng Liu

    Full Text Available Bread-making quality traits are central targets for wheat breeding. The objectives of our study were to (1 examine the presence of major effect QTLs for quality traits in a Central European elite wheat population, (2 explore the optimal strategy for predicting the hybrid performance for wheat quality traits, and (3 investigate the effects of marker density and the composition and size of the training population on the accuracy of prediction of hybrid performance. In total 135 inbred lines of Central European bread wheat (Triticum aestivum L. and 1,604 hybrids derived from them were evaluated for seven quality traits in up to six environments. The 135 parental lines were genotyped using a 90k single-nucleotide polymorphism array. Genome-wide association mapping initially suggested presence of several quantitative trait loci (QTLs, but cross-validation rather indicated the absence of major effect QTLs for all quality traits except of 1000-kernel weight. Genomic selection substantially outperformed marker-assisted selection in predicting hybrid performance. A resampling study revealed that increasing the effective population size in the estimation set of hybrids is relevant to boost the accuracy of prediction for an unrelated test population.

  6. Predicting Hybrid Performances for Quality Traits through Genomic-Assisted Approaches in Central European Wheat

    KAUST Repository

    Liu, Guozheng; Zhao, Yusheng; Gowda, Manje; Longin, C. Friedrich H.; Reif, Jochen C.; Mette, Michael F.

    2016-01-01

    Bread-making quality traits are central targets for wheat breeding. The objectives of our study were to (1) examine the presence of major effect QTLs for quality traits in a Central European elite wheat population, (2) explore the optimal strategy for predicting the hybrid performance for wheat quality traits, and (3) investigate the effects of marker density and the composition and size of the training population on the accuracy of prediction of hybrid performance. In total 135 inbred lines of Central European bread wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and 1,604 hybrids derived from them were evaluated for seven quality traits in up to six environments. The 135 parental lines were genotyped using a 90k single-nucleotide polymorphism array. Genome-wide association mapping initially suggested presence of several quantitative trait loci (QTLs), but cross-validation rather indicated the absence of major effect QTLs for all quality traits except of 1000-kernel weight. Genomic selection substantially outperformed marker-assisted selection in predicting hybrid performance. A resampling study revealed that increasing the effective population size in the estimation set of hybrids is relevant to boost the accuracy of prediction for an unrelated test population.

  7. Predicting Hybrid Performances for Quality Traits through Genomic-Assisted Approaches in Central European Wheat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Guozheng; Zhao, Yusheng; Gowda, Manje; Longin, C. Friedrich H.; Reif, Jochen C.; Mette, Michael F.

    2016-01-01

    Bread-making quality traits are central targets for wheat breeding. The objectives of our study were to (1) examine the presence of major effect QTLs for quality traits in a Central European elite wheat population, (2) explore the optimal strategy for predicting the hybrid performance for wheat quality traits, and (3) investigate the effects of marker density and the composition and size of the training population on the accuracy of prediction of hybrid performance. In total 135 inbred lines of Central European bread wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and 1,604 hybrids derived from them were evaluated for seven quality traits in up to six environments. The 135 parental lines were genotyped using a 90k single-nucleotide polymorphism array. Genome-wide association mapping initially suggested presence of several quantitative trait loci (QTLs), but cross-validation rather indicated the absence of major effect QTLs for all quality traits except of 1000-kernel weight. Genomic selection substantially outperformed marker-assisted selection in predicting hybrid performance. A resampling study revealed that increasing the effective population size in the estimation set of hybrids is relevant to boost the accuracy of prediction for an unrelated test population. PMID:27383841

  8. Fuzzy logic-based analogue forecasting and hybrid modelling of horizontal visibility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuba, Zoltán; Bottyán, Zsolt

    2018-04-01

    Forecasting visibility is one of the greatest challenges in aviation meteorology. At the same time, high accuracy visibility forecasts can significantly reduce or make avoidable weather-related risk in aviation as well. To improve forecasting visibility, this research links fuzzy logic-based analogue forecasting and post-processed numerical weather prediction model outputs in hybrid forecast. Performance of analogue forecasting model was improved by the application of Analytic Hierarchy Process. Then, linear combination of the mentioned outputs was applied to create ultra-short term hybrid visibility prediction which gradually shifts the focus from statistical to numerical products taking their advantages during the forecast period. It gives the opportunity to bring closer the numerical visibility forecast to the observations even it is wrong initially. Complete verification of categorical forecasts was carried out; results are available for persistence and terminal aerodrome forecasts (TAF) as well in order to compare. The average value of Heidke Skill Score (HSS) of examined airports of analogue and hybrid forecasts shows very similar results even at the end of forecast period where the rate of analogue prediction in the final hybrid output is 0.1-0.2 only. However, in case of poor visibility (1000-2500 m), hybrid (0.65) and analogue forecasts (0.64) have similar average of HSS in the first 6 h of forecast period, and have better performance than persistence (0.60) or TAF (0.56). Important achievement that hybrid model takes into consideration physics and dynamics of the atmosphere due to the increasing part of the numerical weather prediction. In spite of this, its performance is similar to the most effective visibility forecasting methods and does not follow the poor verification results of clearly numerical outputs.

  9. A hybrid approach for predicting promiscuous MHC class I restricted ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Prakash

    2006-09-15

    Sep 15, 2006 ... with existing MHC binder prediction methods for alleles studied by both ... in locating the promiscuous MHC binding regions from antigen sequence. ... Artificial neural network; MHC class I alleles; promiscuous binders; ... this problem by developing methods for prediction for ... In case equal number of.

  10. Hybrid neural intelligent system to predict business failure in small-to-medium-size enterprises.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borrajo, M Lourdes; Baruque, Bruno; Corchado, Emilio; Bajo, Javier; Corchado, Juan M

    2011-08-01

    During the last years there has been a growing need of developing innovative tools that can help small to medium sized enterprises to predict business failure as well as financial crisis. In this study we present a novel hybrid intelligent system aimed at monitoring the modus operandi of the companies and predicting possible failures. This system is implemented by means of a neural-based multi-agent system that models the different actors of the companies as agents. The core of the multi-agent system is a type of agent that incorporates a case-based reasoning system and automates the business control process and failure prediction. The stages of the case-based reasoning system are implemented by means of web services: the retrieval stage uses an innovative weighted voting summarization of self-organizing maps ensembles-based method and the reuse stage is implemented by means of a radial basis function neural network. An initial prototype was developed and the results obtained related to small and medium enterprises in a real scenario are presented.

  11. Genomic prediction in early selection stages using multi-year data in a hybrid rye breeding program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernal-Vasquez, Angela-Maria; Gordillo, Andres; Schmidt, Malthe; Piepho, Hans-Peter

    2017-05-31

    The use of multiple genetic backgrounds across years is appealing for genomic prediction (GP) because past years' data provide valuable information on marker effects. Nonetheless, single-year GP models are less complex and computationally less demanding than multi-year GP models. In devising a suitable analysis strategy for multi-year data, we may exploit the fact that even if there is no replication of genotypes across years, there is plenty of replication at the level of marker loci. Our principal aim was to evaluate different GP approaches to simultaneously model genotype-by-year (GY) effects and breeding values using multi-year data in terms of predictive ability. The models were evaluated under different scenarios reflecting common practice in plant breeding programs, such as different degrees of relatedness between training and validation sets, and using a selected fraction of genotypes in the training set. We used empirical grain yield data of a rye hybrid breeding program. A detailed description of the prediction approaches highlighting the use of kinship for modeling GY is presented. Using the kinship to model GY was advantageous in particular for datasets disconnected across years. On average, predictive abilities were 5% higher for models using kinship to model GY over models without kinship. We confirmed that using data from multiple selection stages provides valuable GY information and helps increasing predictive ability. This increase is on average 30% higher when the predicted genotypes are closely related with the genotypes in the training set. A selection of top-yielding genotypes together with the use of kinship to model GY improves the predictive ability in datasets composed of single years of several selection cycles. Our results clearly demonstrate that the use of multi-year data and appropriate modeling is beneficial for GP because it allows dissecting GY effects from genomic estimated breeding values. The model choice, as well as ensuring

  12. Superconductivity in the periodic Anderson model with anisotropic hybridization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sarasua, L.G.; Continentino, Mucio A.

    2003-01-01

    In this work we study superconductivity in the periodic Anderson model with both on-site and intersite hybridization, including the interband Coulomb repulsion. We show that the presence of the intersite hybridization together with the on-site hybridization significantly affects the superconducting properties of the system. The symmetry of the hybridization has a strong influence in the symmetry of the superconducting order parameter of the ground state. The interband Coulomb repulsion may increase or decrease the superconducting critical temperature at small values of this interaction, while is detrimental to superconductivity for strong values. We show that the present model can give rise to positive or negative values of dT c /dP, depending on the values of the system parameters

  13. Modelling and Verifying Communication Failure of Hybrid Systems in HCSP

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, Shuling; Nielson, Flemming; Nielson, Hanne Riis

    2016-01-01

    Hybrid systems are dynamic systems with interacting discrete computation and continuous physical processes. They have become ubiquitous in our daily life, e.g. automotive, aerospace and medical systems, and in particular, many of them are safety-critical. For a safety-critical hybrid system......, in the presence of communication failure, the expected control from the controller will get lost and as a consequence the physical process cannot behave as expected. In this paper, we mainly consider the communication failure caused by the non-engagement of one party in communication action, i.......e. the communication itself fails to occur. To address this issue, this paper proposes a formal framework by extending HCSP, a formal modeling language for hybrid systems, for modeling and verifying hybrid systems in the absence of receiving messages due to communication failure. We present two inference systems...

  14. Modeling and design of a high-performance hybrid actuator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aloufi, Badr; Behdinan, Kamran; Zu, Jean

    2016-12-01

    This paper presents the model and design of a novel hybrid piezoelectric actuator which provides high active and passive performances for smart structural systems. The actuator is composed of a pair of curved pre-stressed piezoelectric actuators, so-called commercially THUNDER actuators, installed opposite each other using two clamping mechanisms constructed of in-plane fixable hinges, grippers and solid links. A fully mathematical model is developed to describe the active and passive dynamics of the actuator and investigate the effects of its geometrical parameters on the dynamic stiffness, free displacement and blocked force properties. Among the literature that deals with piezoelectric actuators in which THUNDER elements are used as a source of electromechanical power, the proposed study is unique in that it presents a mathematical model that has the ability to predict the actuator characteristics and achieve other phenomena, such as resonances, mode shapes, phase shifts, dips, etc. For model validation, the measurements of the free dynamic response per unit voltage and passive acceleration transmissibility of a particular actuator design are used to check the accuracy of the results predicted by the model. The results reveal that there is a good agreement between the model and experiment. Another experiment is performed to teste the linearity of the actuator system by examining the variation of the output dynamic responses with varying forces and voltages at different frequencies. From the results, it can be concluded that the actuator acts approximately as a linear system at frequencies up to 1000 Hz. A parametric study is achieved here by applying the developed model to analyze the influence of the geometrical parameters of the fixable hinges on the active and passive actuator properties. The model predictions in the frequency range of 0-1000 Hz show that the hinge thickness, radius, and opening angle parameters have great effects on the frequency dynamic

  15. Modeling Hybridization Kinetics of Gene Probes in a DNA Biochip Using FEMLAB

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munir, Ahsan; Waseem, Hassan; Williams, Maggie R.; Stedtfeld, Robert D.; Gulari, Erdogan; Tiedje, James M.; Hashsham, Syed A.

    2017-01-01

    Microfluidic DNA biochips capable of detecting specific DNA sequences are useful in medical diagnostics, drug discovery, food safety monitoring and agriculture. They are used as miniaturized platforms for analysis of nucleic acids-based biomarkers. Binding kinetics between immobilized single stranded DNA on the surface and its complementary strand present in the sample are of interest. To achieve optimal sensitivity with minimum sample size and rapid hybridization, ability to predict the kinetics of hybridization based on the thermodynamic characteristics of the probe is crucial. In this study, a computer aided numerical model for the design and optimization of a flow-through biochip was developed using a finite element technique packaged software tool (FEMLAB; package included in COMSOL Multiphysics) to simulate the transport of DNA through a microfluidic chamber to the reaction surface. The model accounts for fluid flow, convection and diffusion in the channel and on the reaction surface. Concentration, association rate constant, dissociation rate constant, recirculation flow rate, and temperature were key parameters affecting the rate of hybridization. The model predicted the kinetic profile and signal intensities of eighteen 20-mer probes targeting vancomycin resistance genes (VRGs). Predicted signal intensities and hybridization kinetics strongly correlated with experimental data in the biochip (R2 = 0.8131). PMID:28555058

  16. Modeling Hybridization Kinetics of Gene Probes in a DNA Biochip Using FEMLAB

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahsan Munir

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Microfluidic DNA biochips capable of detecting specific DNA sequences are useful in medical diagnostics, drug discovery, food safety monitoring and agriculture. They are used as miniaturized platforms for analysis of nucleic acids-based biomarkers. Binding kinetics between immobilized single stranded DNA on the surface and its complementary strand present in the sample are of interest. To achieve optimal sensitivity with minimum sample size and rapid hybridization, ability to predict the kinetics of hybridization based on the thermodynamic characteristics of the probe is crucial. In this study, a computer aided numerical model for the design and optimization of a flow-through biochip was developed using a finite element technique packaged software tool (FEMLAB; package included in COMSOL Multiphysics to simulate the transport of DNA through a microfluidic chamber to the reaction surface. The model accounts for fluid flow, convection and diffusion in the channel and on the reaction surface. Concentration, association rate constant, dissociation rate constant, recirculation flow rate, and temperature were key parameters affecting the rate of hybridization. The model predicted the kinetic profile and signal intensities of eighteen 20-mer probes targeting vancomycin resistance genes (VRGs. Predicted signal intensities and hybridization kinetics strongly correlated with experimental data in the biochip (R2 = 0.8131.

  17. A novel hybrid approach for predicting wind farm power production based on wavelet transform, hybrid neural networks and imperialist competitive algorithm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aghajani, Afshin; Kazemzadeh, Rasool; Ebrahimi, Afshin

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Proposing a novel hybrid method for short-term prediction of wind farms with high accuracy. • Investigating the prediction accuracy for proposed method in comparison with other methods. • Investigating the effect of six types of parameters as input data on predictions. • Comparing results for 6 & 4 types of the input parameters – addition of pressure and air humidity. - Abstract: This paper proposes a novel hybrid approach to forecast electric power production in wind farms. Wavelet transform (WT) is employed to filter input data of wind power, while radial basis function (RBF) neural network is utilized for primary prediction. For better predictions the main forecasting engine is comprised of three multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural networks by different learning algorithms of Levenberg–Marquardt (LM), Broyden–Fletcher–Goldfarb–Shanno (BFGS), and Bayesian regularization (BR). Meta-heuristic technique Imperialist Competitive Algorithm (ICA) is used to optimize neural networks’ weightings in order to escape from local minima. In the forecast process, the real data of wind farms located in the southern part of Alberta, Canada, are used to train and test the proposed model. The data are a complete set of six meteorological and technical characteristics, including wind speed, wind power, wind direction, temperature, pressure, and air humidity. In order to demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed method, it is compared with several other wind power forecast techniques. Results of optimizations indicate the superiority of the proposed method over the other mentioned techniques; and, forecasting error is remarkably reduced. For instance, the average normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) and average mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) are respectively 11% and 14% lower for the proposed method in 1-h-ahead forecasts over a 24-h period with six types of input than those for the best of the compared models.

  18. Fluid Survival Tool: A Model Checker for Hybrid Petri Nets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Postema, Björn Frits; Remke, Anne Katharina Ingrid; Haverkort, Boudewijn R.H.M.; Ghasemieh, Hamed

    2014-01-01

    Recently, algorithms for model checking Stochastic Time Logic (STL) on Hybrid Petri nets with a single general one-shot transition (HPNG) have been introduced. This paper presents a tool for model checking HPNG models against STL formulas. A graphical user interface (GUI) not only helps to

  19. Nuclear Hybrid Energy System Model Stability Testing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Greenwood, Michael Scott [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Cetiner, Sacit M. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Fugate, David W. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2017-04-01

    A Nuclear Hybrid Energy System (NHES) uses a nuclear reactor as the basic power generation unit, and the power generated is used by multiple customers as combinations of thermal power or electrical power. The definition and architecture of a particular NHES can be adapted based on the needs and opportunities of different localities and markets. For example, locations in need of potable water may be best served by coupling a desalination plant to the NHES. Similarly, a location near oil refineries may have a need for emission-free hydrogen production. Using the flexible, multi-domain capabilities of Modelica, Argonne National Laboratory, Idaho National Laboratory, and Oak Ridge National Laboratory are investigating the dynamics (e.g., thermal hydraulics and electrical generation/consumption) and cost of a hybrid system. This paper examines the NHES work underway, emphasizing the control system developed for individual subsystems and the overall supervisory control system.

  20. Hybrid Modeling and Optimization of Yogurt Starter Culture Continuous Fermentation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silviya Popova

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available The present paper presents a hybrid model of yogurt starter mixed culture fermentation. The main nonlinearities within a classical structure of continuous process model are replaced by neural networks. The new hybrid model accounts for the dependence of the two microorganisms' kinetics from the on-line measured characteristics of the culture medium - pH. Then the model was used further for calculation of the optimal time profile of pH. The obtained results are with agreement with the experimental once.

  1. Mechanisms Underlying Mammalian Hybrid Sterility in Two Feline Interspecies Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Brian W; Seabury, Christopher M; Brashear, Wesley A; Li, Gang; Roelke-Parker, Melody; Murphy, William J

    2015-10-01

    The phenomenon of male sterility in interspecies hybrids has been observed for over a century, however, few genes influencing this recurrent phenotype have been identified. Genetic investigations have been primarily limited to a small number of model organisms, thus limiting our understanding of the underlying molecular basis of this well-documented "rule of speciation." We utilized two interspecies hybrid cat breeds in a genome-wide association study employing the Illumina 63 K single-nucleotide polymorphism array. Collectively, we identified eight autosomal genes/gene regions underlying associations with hybrid male sterility (HMS) involved in the function of the blood-testis barrier, gamete structural development, and transcriptional regulation. We also identified several candidate hybrid sterility regions on the X chromosome, with most residing in close proximity to complex duplicated regions. Differential gene expression analyses revealed significant chromosome-wide upregulation of X chromosome transcripts in testes of sterile hybrids, which were enriched for genes involved in chromatin regulation of gene expression. Our expression results parallel those reported in Mus hybrids, supporting the "Large X-Effect" in mammalian HMS and the potential epigenetic basis for this phenomenon. These results support the value of the interspecies feline model as a powerful tool for comparison to rodent models of HMS, demonstrating unique aspects and potential commonalities that underpin mammalian reproductive isolation. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  2. A Novel Hybrid Model for Drawing Trace Reconstruction from Multichannel Surface Electromyographic Activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yumiao; Yang, Zhongliang

    2017-01-01

    Recently, several researchers have considered the problem of reconstruction of handwriting and other meaningful arm and hand movements from surface electromyography (sEMG). Although much progress has been made, several practical limitations may still affect the clinical applicability of sEMG-based techniques. In this paper, a novel three-step hybrid model of coordinate state transition, sEMG feature extraction and gene expression programming (GEP) prediction is proposed for reconstructing drawing traces of 12 basic one-stroke shapes from multichannel surface electromyography. Using a specially designed coordinate data acquisition system, we recorded the coordinate data of drawing traces collected in accordance with the time series while 7-channel EMG signals were recorded. As a widely-used time domain feature, Root Mean Square (RMS) was extracted with the analysis window. The preliminary reconstruction models can be established by GEP. Then, the original drawing traces can be approximated by a constructed prediction model. Applying the three-step hybrid model, we were able to convert seven channels of EMG activity recorded from the arm muscles into smooth reconstructions of drawing traces. The hybrid model can yield a mean accuracy of 74% in within-group design (one set of prediction models for all shapes) and 86% in between-group design (one separate set of prediction models for each shape), averaged for the reconstructed x and y coordinates. It can be concluded that it is feasible for the proposed three-step hybrid model to improve the reconstruction ability of drawing traces from sEMG.

  3. Development and evaluation of a watershed-scale hybrid hydrologic model

    OpenAIRE

    Cho, Younghyun

    2016-01-01

    A watershed-scale hybrid hydrologic model (Distributed-Clark), which is a lumped conceptual and distributed feature model, was developed to predict spatially distributed short- and long-term rainfall runoff generation and routing using relatively simple methodologies and state-of-the-art spatial data in a GIS environment. In Distributed-Clark, spatially distributed excess rainfall estimated with the SCS curve number method and a GIS-based set of separated unit hydrographs (spatially distribut...

  4. A Hybrid Wind-Farm Parametrization for Mesoscale and Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Yang; Archer, Cristina L.

    2018-04-01

    To better understand the potential impact of wind farms on weather and climate at the regional to global scales, a new hybrid wind-farm parametrization is proposed for mesoscale and climate models. The proposed parametrization is a hybrid model because it is not based on physical processes or conservation laws, but on the multiple linear regression of the results of large-eddy simulations (LES) with the geometric properties of the wind-farm layout (e.g., the blockage ratio and blockage distance). The innovative aspect is that each wind turbine is treated individually based on its position in the farm and on the wind direction by predicting the velocity upstream of each turbine. The turbine-induced forces and added turbulence kinetic energy (TKE) are first derived analytically and then implemented in the Weather Research and Forecasting model. Idealized simulations of the offshore Lillgrund wind farm are conducted. The wind-speed deficit and TKE predicted with the hybrid model are in excellent agreement with those from the LES results, while the wind-power production estimated with the hybrid model is within 10% of that observed. Three additional wind farms with larger inter-turbine spacing than at Lillgrund are also considered, and a similar agreement with LES results is found, proving that the hybrid parametrization works well with any wind farm regardless of the spacing between turbines. These results indicate the wind-turbine position, wind direction, and added TKE are essential in accounting for the wind-farm effects on the surroundings, for which the hybrid wind-farm parametrization is a promising tool.

  5. Churn prediction on huge telecom data using hybrid firefly based classification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ammar A.Q. Ahmed

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Churn prediction in telecom has become a major requirement due to the increase in the number of telecom providers. However due to the hugeness, sparsity and imbalanced nature of the data, churn prediction in telecom has always been a complex task. This paper presents a metaheuristic based churn prediction technique that performs churn prediction on huge telecom data. A hybridized form of Firefly algorithm is used as the classifier. It has been identified that the compute intensive component of the Firefly algorithm is the comparison block, where every firefly is compared with every other firefly to identify the one with the highest light intensity. This component is replaced by Simulated Annealing and the classification process is carried out. Experiments were conducted on the Orange dataset. It was observed that Firefly algorithm works best on churn data and the hybridized Firefly algorithm provides effective and faster results.

  6. Are more complex physiological models of forest ecosystems better choices for plot and regional predictions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wenchi Jin; Hong S. He; Frank R. Thompson

    2016-01-01

    Process-based forest ecosystem models vary from simple physiological, complex physiological, to hybrid empirical-physiological models. Previous studies indicate that complex models provide the best prediction at plot scale with a temporal extent of less than 10 years, however, it is largely untested as to whether complex models outperform the other two types of models...

  7. Hybrid Scheme for Modeling Local Field Potentials from Point-Neuron Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagen, Espen; Dahmen, David; Stavrinou, Maria L; Lindén, Henrik; Tetzlaff, Tom; van Albada, Sacha J; Grün, Sonja; Diesmann, Markus; Einevoll, Gaute T

    2016-12-01

    With rapidly advancing multi-electrode recording technology, the local field potential (LFP) has again become a popular measure of neuronal activity in both research and clinical applications. Proper understanding of the LFP requires detailed mathematical modeling incorporating the anatomical and electrophysiological features of neurons near the recording electrode, as well as synaptic inputs from the entire network. Here we propose a hybrid modeling scheme combining efficient point-neuron network models with biophysical principles underlying LFP generation by real neurons. The LFP predictions rely on populations of network-equivalent multicompartment neuron models with layer-specific synaptic connectivity, can be used with an arbitrary number of point-neuron network populations, and allows for a full separation of simulated network dynamics and LFPs. We apply the scheme to a full-scale cortical network model for a ∼1 mm 2 patch of primary visual cortex, predict laminar LFPs for different network states, assess the relative LFP contribution from different laminar populations, and investigate effects of input correlations and neuron density on the LFP. The generic nature of the hybrid scheme and its public implementation in hybridLFPy form the basis for LFP predictions from other and larger point-neuron network models, as well as extensions of the current application with additional biological detail. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press.

  8. Some hybrid models applicable to dose-response relationships

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kumazawa, Shigeru

    1992-01-01

    A new type of models of dose-response relationships has been studied as an initial stage to explore a reliable extrapolation of the relationships decided by high dose data to the range of low dose covered by radiation protection. The approach is to use a 'hybrid scale' of linear and logarithmic scales; the first model is that the normalized surviving fraction (ρ S > 0) in a hybrid scale decreases linearly with dose in a linear scale, and the second is that the induction in a log scale increases linearly with the normalized dose (τ D > 0) in a hybrid scale. The hybrid scale may reflect an overall effectiveness of a complex system against adverse events caused by various agents. Some data of leukemia in the atomic bomb survivors and of rodent experiments were used to show the applicability of hybrid scale models. The results proved that proposed models fit these data not less than the popular linear-quadratic models, providing the possible interpretation of shapes of dose-response curves, e.g. shouldered survival curves varied by recovery time. (author)

  9. A hybrid agent-based approach for modeling microbiological systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Zaiyi; Sloot, Peter M A; Tay, Joc Cing

    2008-11-21

    Models for systems biology commonly adopt Differential Equations or Agent-Based modeling approaches for simulating the processes as a whole. Models based on differential equations presuppose phenomenological intracellular behavioral mechanisms, while models based on Multi-Agent approach often use directly translated, and quantitatively less precise if-then logical rule constructs. We propose an extendible systems model based on a hybrid agent-based approach where biological cells are modeled as individuals (agents) while molecules are represented by quantities. This hybridization in entity representation entails a combined modeling strategy with agent-based behavioral rules and differential equations, thereby balancing the requirements of extendible model granularity with computational tractability. We demonstrate the efficacy of this approach with models of chemotaxis involving an assay of 10(3) cells and 1.2x10(6) molecules. The model produces cell migration patterns that are comparable to laboratory observations.

  10. A hybrid simulation model for a stable auroral arc

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Janhunen

    Full Text Available We present a new type of hybrid simulation model, intended to simulate a single stable auroral arc in the latitude/altitude plane. The ionospheric ions are treated as particles, the electrons are assumed to follow a Boltzmann response and the magnetospheric ions are assumed to be so hot that they form a background population unaffected by the electric fields that arise. The system is driven by assumed parallel electron energisation causing a primary negative charge cloud and an associated potential structure to build up. The results show how a closed potential structure and density depletion of an auroral arc build up and how they decay after the driver is turned off. The model also produces upgoing energetic ion beams and predicts strong static perpendicular electric fields to be found in a relatively narrow altitude range (~ 5000–11 000 km.

    Key words. Magnetospheric physics (magnetosphere-ionosphere interactions; auroral phenomena – Space plasma physics (numerical simulation studies

  11. Hybrid CMS methods with model reduction for assembly of structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farhat, Charbel

    1991-01-01

    Future on-orbit structures will be designed and built in several stages, each with specific control requirements. Therefore there must be a methodology which can predict the dynamic characteristics of the assembled structure, based on the dynamic characteristics of the subassemblies and their interfaces. The methodology developed by CSC to address this issue is Hybrid Component Mode Synthesis (HCMS). HCMS distinguishes itself from standard component mode synthesis algorithms in the following features: (1) it does not require the subcomponents to have displacement compatible models, which makes it ideal for analyzing the deployment of heterogeneous flexible multibody systems, (2) it incorporates a second-level model reduction scheme at the interface, which makes it much faster than other algorithms and therefore suitable for control purposes, and (3) it does answer specific questions such as 'how does the global fundamental frequency vary if I change the physical parameters of substructure k by a specified amount?'. Because it is based on an energy principle rather than displacement compatibility, this methodology can also help the designer to define an assembly process. Current and future efforts are devoted to applying the HCMS method to design and analyze docking and berthing procedures in orbital construction.

  12. An SVM model with hybrid kernels for hydrological time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, C.; Wang, H.; Zhao, X.; Xie, Q.

    2017-12-01

    Support Vector Machine (SVM) models have been widely applied to the forecast of climate/weather and its impact on other environmental variables such as hydrologic response to climate/weather. When using SVM, the choice of the kernel function plays the key role. Conventional SVM models mostly use one single type of kernel function, e.g., radial basis kernel function. Provided that there are several featured kernel functions available, each having its own advantages and drawbacks, a combination of these kernel functions may give more flexibility and robustness to SVM approach, making it suitable for a wide range of application scenarios. This paper presents such a linear combination of radial basis kernel and polynomial kernel for the forecast of monthly flowrate in two gaging stations using SVM approach. The results indicate significant improvement in the accuracy of predicted series compared to the approach with either individual kernel function, thus demonstrating the feasibility and advantages of such hybrid kernel approach for SVM applications.

  13. Hybrid robust predictive optimization method of power system dispatch

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chandra, Ramu Sharat [Niskayuna, NY; Liu, Yan [Ballston Lake, NY; Bose, Sumit [Niskayuna, NY; de Bedout, Juan Manuel [West Glenville, NY

    2011-08-02

    A method of power system dispatch control solves power system dispatch problems by integrating a larger variety of generation, load and storage assets, including without limitation, combined heat and power (CHP) units, renewable generation with forecasting, controllable loads, electric, thermal and water energy storage. The method employs a predictive algorithm to dynamically schedule different assets in order to achieve global optimization and maintain the system normal operation.

  14. A hybrid modeling with data assimilation to evaluate human exposure level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koo, Y. S.; Cheong, H. K.; Choi, D.; Kim, A. L.; Yun, H. Y.

    2015-12-01

    Exposure models are designed to better represent human contact with PM (Particulate Matter) and other air pollutants such as CO, SO2, O3, and NO2. The exposure concentrations of the air pollutants to human are determined by global and regional long range transport of global and regional scales from Europe and China as well as local emissions from urban and road vehicle sources. To assess the exposure level in detail, the multiple scale influence from background to local sources should be considered. A hybrid air quality modeling methodology combing a grid-based chemical transport model with a local plume dispersion model was used to provide spatially and temporally resolved air quality concentration for human exposure levels in Korea. In the hybrid modeling approach, concentrations from a grid-based chemical transport model and a local plume dispersion model are added to provide contributions from photochemical interactions, long-range (regional) transport and local-scale dispersion. The CAMx (Comprehensive Air quality Model with Extensions was used for the background concentrations from anthropogenic and natural emissions in East Asia including Korea while the road dispersion by vehicle emission was calculated by CALPUFF model. The total exposure level of the pollutants was finally assessed by summing the background and road contributions. In the hybrid modeling, the data assimilation method based on the optimal interpolation was applied to overcome the discrepancies between the model predicted concentrations and observations. The air quality data from the air quality monitoring stations in Korea. The spatial resolution of the hybrid model was 50m for the Seoul Metropolitan Ares. This example clearly demonstrates that the exposure level could be estimated to the fine scale for the exposure assessment by using the hybrid modeling approach with data assimilation.

  15. Short-Term Wind Speed Prediction Using EEMD-LSSVM Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aiqing Kang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Hybrid Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD and Least Square Support Vector Machine (LSSVM is proposed to improve short-term wind speed forecasting precision. The EEMD is firstly utilized to decompose the original wind speed time series into a set of subseries. Then the LSSVM models are established to forecast these subseries. Partial autocorrelation function is adopted to analyze the inner relationships between the historical wind speed series in order to determine input variables of LSSVM models for prediction of every subseries. Finally, the superposition principle is employed to sum the predicted values of every subseries as the final wind speed prediction. The performance of hybrid model is evaluated based on six metrics. Compared with LSSVM, Back Propagation Neural Networks (BP, Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA, combination of Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD with LSSVM, and hybrid EEMD with ARIMA models, the wind speed forecasting results show that the proposed hybrid model outperforms these models in terms of six metrics. Furthermore, the scatter diagrams of predicted versus actual wind speed and histograms of prediction errors are presented to verify the superiority of the hybrid model in short-term wind speed prediction.

  16. Prediction of Creep Behaviour of the Hybrid Composite Material Using the Accelerated Characterisation Method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Larbi, S.; Berradj, M.; Djebbar, A.; Bilek, A.

    2011-01-01

    We present in this study a creep behavior in flexure of a hybrid composite consisting of a polyester matrix containing methyl methacrylate reinforced by two bidirectional fabrics. The first one is made with E-glass fibers and the second one is made of a knitted polyamide 66. The mass fractions are 13% for the glass fabric and 9% for the polyamide fabric. The specimens, of dimensions (L = 60, l = 15 and h = 2.3 mm) containing 06 alternating layers (2P/2V/2P) were fabricated by using the vacuum bag molding method. Bending tests performed at different temperatures allowed us first to determine the load levels for the creep tests. Creep tests at different loads (5 to 43 MPa) and different temperatures (23'deg' to 80'deg' C) show a noticeable increase of creep deformation for both tests under the same load and different temperatures just as those carried out at different loads under the same temperature. The initial deformation varies significantly with the load but very little with temperature. The application of the Findley model shows good correlation with experimental results. Model parameters were identified. Creep deformation satisfies the principle of superposition time-temperature-stress (TTSSP). Findley's model has subsequently been coupled with the principle of superposition of time-temperature-stress to plot master curves at different stresses and temperatures; this enables prediction of creep deformation in the long term. (author)

  17. Model predictive control using fuzzy decision functions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kaymak, U.; Costa Sousa, da J.M.

    2001-01-01

    Fuzzy predictive control integrates conventional model predictive control with techniques from fuzzy multicriteria decision making, translating the goals and the constraints to predictive control in a transparent way. The information regarding the (fuzzy) goals and the (fuzzy) constraints of the

  18. A new adaptive hybrid electromagnetic damper: modelling, optimization, and experiment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Asadi, Ehsan; Ribeiro, Roberto; Behrad Khamesee, Mir; Khajepour, Amir

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents the development of a new electromagnetic hybrid damper which provides regenerative adaptive damping force for various applications. Recently, the introduction of electromagnetic technologies to the damping systems has provided researchers with new opportunities for the realization of adaptive semi-active damping systems with the added benefit of energy recovery. In this research, a hybrid electromagnetic damper is proposed. The hybrid damper is configured to operate with viscous and electromagnetic subsystems. The viscous medium provides a bias and fail-safe damping force while the electromagnetic component adds adaptability and the capacity for regeneration to the hybrid design. The electromagnetic component is modeled and analyzed using analytical (lumped equivalent magnetic circuit) and electromagnetic finite element method (FEM) (COMSOL ® software package) approaches. By implementing both modeling approaches, an optimization for the geometric aspects of the electromagnetic subsystem is obtained. Based on the proposed electromagnetic hybrid damping concept and the preliminary optimization solution, a prototype is designed and fabricated. A good agreement is observed between the experimental and FEM results for the magnetic field distribution and electromagnetic damping forces. These results validate the accuracy of the modeling approach and the preliminary optimization solution. An analytical model is also presented for viscous damping force, and is compared with experimental results The results show that the damper is able to produce damping coefficients of 1300 and 0–238 N s m −1 through the viscous and electromagnetic components, respectively. (paper)

  19. A Hybrid Supervised/Unsupervised Machine Learning Approach to Solar Flare Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benvenuto, Federico; Piana, Michele; Campi, Cristina; Massone, Anna Maria

    2018-01-01

    This paper introduces a novel method for flare forecasting, combining prediction accuracy with the ability to identify the most relevant predictive variables. This result is obtained by means of a two-step approach: first, a supervised regularization method for regression, namely, LASSO is applied, where a sparsity-enhancing penalty term allows the identification of the significance with which each data feature contributes to the prediction; then, an unsupervised fuzzy clustering technique for classification, namely, Fuzzy C-Means, is applied, where the regression outcome is partitioned through the minimization of a cost function and without focusing on the optimization of a specific skill score. This approach is therefore hybrid, since it combines supervised and unsupervised learning; realizes classification in an automatic, skill-score-independent way; and provides effective prediction performances even in the case of imbalanced data sets. Its prediction power is verified against NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center data, using as a test set, data in the range between 1996 August and 2010 December and as training set, data in the range between 1988 December and 1996 June. To validate the method, we computed several skill scores typically utilized in flare prediction and compared the values provided by the hybrid approach with the ones provided by several standard (non-hybrid) machine learning methods. The results showed that the hybrid approach performs classification better than all other supervised methods and with an effectiveness comparable to the one of clustering methods; but, in addition, it provides a reliable ranking of the weights with which the data properties contribute to the forecast.

  20. Hybrid programming model for implicit PDE simulations on multicore architectures

    KAUST Repository

    Kaushik, Dinesh; Keyes, David E.; Balay, Satish; Smith, Barry F.

    2011-01-01

    The complexity of programming modern multicore processor based clusters is rapidly rising, with GPUs adding further demand for fine-grained parallelism. This paper analyzes the performance of the hybrid (MPI+OpenMP) programming model in the context of an implicit unstructured mesh CFD code. At the implementation level, the effects of cache locality, update management, work division, and synchronization frequency are studied. The hybrid model presents interesting algorithmic opportunities as well: the convergence of linear system solver is quicker than the pure MPI case since the parallel preconditioner stays stronger when hybrid model is used. This implies significant savings in the cost of communication and synchronization (explicit and implicit). Even though OpenMP based parallelism is easier to implement (with in a subdomain assigned to one MPI process for simplicity), getting good performance needs attention to data partitioning issues similar to those in the message-passing case. © 2011 Springer-Verlag.

  1. A Hybrid FEM-ANN Approach for Slope Instability Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verma, A. K.; Singh, T. N.; Chauhan, Nikhil Kumar; Sarkar, K.

    2016-09-01

    Assessment of slope stability is one of the most critical aspects for the life of a slope. In any slope vulnerability appraisal, Factor Of Safety (FOS) is the widely accepted index to understand, how close or far a slope from the failure. In this work, an attempt has been made to simulate a road cut slope in a landslide prone area in Rudrapryag, Uttarakhand, India which lies near Himalayan geodynamic mountain belt. A combination of Finite Element Method (FEM) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) has been adopted to predict FOS of the slope. In ANN, a three layer, feed- forward back-propagation neural network with one input layer and one hidden layer with three neurons and one output layer has been considered and trained using datasets generated from numerical analysis of the slope and validated with new set of field slope data. Mean absolute percentage error estimated as 1.04 with coefficient of correlation between the FOS of FEM and ANN as 0.973, which indicates that the system is very vigorous and fast to predict FOS for any slope.

  2. Comparison of new hybrid FEEMD-MLP, FEEMD-ANFIS, Wavelet Packet-MLP and Wavelet Packet-ANFIS for wind speed predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Hui; Tian, Hong-qi; Li, Yan-fei

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Four algorithms [EMD/FEEMD/WD/WPD] are proposed for the wind speed decomposition. • Two new hybrid forecasting algorithms [FEEMD-MLP/ANFIS] are presented. • The contributions of the FEEMD/WPD algorithms are both significant. • The MLP has better forecasting performance than the ANFIS in these cases. • All the proposed hybrid algorithms are suitable for the wind speed predictions. - Abstract: The technology of wind speed prediction is important to guarantee the safety of wind power utilization. Compared to the single algorithms, the hybrid ones always have better performance in the wind speed predictions. In this paper, three most important decomposing algorithms [Wavelet Decomposition – WD/Wavelet Packet Decomposition – WPD/Empirical Mode Decomposition – EMD] and a latest decomposing algorithm [Fast Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition – FEEMD] are all adopted to realize the wind speed high-precision predictions with two representative networks [MLP Neural Network/ANFIS Neural Network]. Based on the hybrid forecasting framework, two new wind speed forecasting methods [FEEMD-MLP and FEEMD-ANFIS] are proposed. Additionally, a series of performance comparison is provided, which includes EMD-MLP, FEEMD-MLP, EDM-ANFIS, FEEMD-ANFIS, WD-MLP, WD-ANFIS, WPD-MLP and WPD-ANFIS. The aim of the study is to investigate the decomposing and forecasting performance of the different hybrid models. Two experimental results show that: (1) Due to the inclusion of the decomposing algorithms, the hybrid ANN algorithms have better performance than their corresponding single ANN algorithms; (2) the proposed new FEEMD-MLP hybrid model has the best performance in the three-step predictions while the WPD-MLP hybrid model has the best performance in the one-step predictions; (3) among the decomposing algorithms, the FEEMD and WPD have better performance than the EMD and WD, respectively; (4) in the forecasting neural networks, the MLP has better performance

  3. A new hybrid method for the prediction of the remaining useful life of a lithium-ion battery

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, Yang; Fang, Huajing; Zhang, Yong

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: •The proposed prognostic method can make full use of historical information. •The method of obtaining historical error data is discussed in detail. •Comparative experiments based on data-driven and model-based methods are performed. •Battery working with different discharging currents is considered. -- Abstract: The lithium-ion battery has become the main power source of many electronic devices, it is necessary to know its state-of-health and remaining useful life to ensure the reliability of electronic device. In this paper, a novel hybrid method with the thought of error-correction is proposed to predict the remaining useful life of lithium-ion battery, which fuses the algorithms of unscented Kalman filter, complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition (CEEMD) and relevance vector machine. Firstly, the unscented Kalman filter algorithm is adopted to obtain a prognostic result based on an estimated model and produce a raw error series. Secondly, a new error series is constructed by analyzing the decomposition results of the raw error series obtained by CEEMD method. Finally, the new error series is utilized by relevance vector machine regression model to predict the prognostic error which is adopted to correct the prognostic result obtained by unscented Kalman filter. Remaining useful life prediction experiments for batteries with different rated capacities and discharging currents are performed to show the high reliability of the proposed hybrid method.

  4. Nuclear Hybrid Energy Systems FY16 Modeling Efforts at ORNL

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cetiner, Sacit M. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Greenwood, Michael Scott [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Harrison, Thomas J. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Qualls, A. L. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Guler Yigitoglu, Askin [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Fugate, David W. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2016-09-01

    A nuclear hybrid system uses a nuclear reactor as the basic power generation unit. The power generated by the nuclear reactor is utilized by one or more power customers as either thermal power, electrical power, or both. In general, a nuclear hybrid system will couple the nuclear reactor to at least one thermal power user in addition to the power conversion system. The definition and architecture of a particular nuclear hybrid system is flexible depending on local markets needs and opportunities. For example, locations in need of potable water may be best served by coupling a desalination plant to the nuclear system. Similarly, an area near oil refineries may have a need for emission-free hydrogen production. A nuclear hybrid system expands the nuclear power plant from its more familiar central power station role by diversifying its immediately and directly connected customer base. The definition, design, analysis, and optimization work currently performed with respect to the nuclear hybrid systems represents the work of three national laboratories. Idaho National Laboratory (INL) is the lead lab working with Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) and Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Each laboratory is providing modeling and simulation expertise for the integration of the hybrid system.

  5. Prediction of the neutrons subcritical multiplication using the diffusion hybrid equation with external neutron sources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Costa da Silva, Adilson; Carvalho da Silva, Fernando [COPPE/UFRJ, Programa de Engenharia Nuclear, Caixa Postal 68509, 21941-914, Rio de Janeiro (Brazil); Senra Martinez, Aquilino, E-mail: aquilino@lmp.ufrj.br [COPPE/UFRJ, Programa de Engenharia Nuclear, Caixa Postal 68509, 21941-914, Rio de Janeiro (Brazil)

    2011-07-15

    Highlights: > We proposed a new neutron diffusion hybrid equation with external neutron source. > A coarse mesh finite difference method for the adjoint flux and reactivity calculation was developed. > 1/M curve to predict the criticality condition is used. - Abstract: We used the neutron diffusion hybrid equation, in cartesian geometry with external neutron sources to predict the subcritical multiplication of neutrons in a pressurized water reactor, using a 1/M curve to predict the criticality condition. A Coarse Mesh Finite Difference Method was developed for the adjoint flux calculation and to obtain the reactivity values of the reactor. The results obtained were compared with benchmark values in order to validate the methodology presented in this paper.

  6. Prediction of the neutrons subcritical multiplication using the diffusion hybrid equation with external neutron sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Costa da Silva, Adilson; Carvalho da Silva, Fernando; Senra Martinez, Aquilino

    2011-01-01

    Highlights: → We proposed a new neutron diffusion hybrid equation with external neutron source. → A coarse mesh finite difference method for the adjoint flux and reactivity calculation was developed. → 1/M curve to predict the criticality condition is used. - Abstract: We used the neutron diffusion hybrid equation, in cartesian geometry with external neutron sources to predict the subcritical multiplication of neutrons in a pressurized water reactor, using a 1/M curve to predict the criticality condition. A Coarse Mesh Finite Difference Method was developed for the adjoint flux calculation and to obtain the reactivity values of the reactor. The results obtained were compared with benchmark values in order to validate the methodology presented in this paper.

  7. Comparison of a hybrid model to a global model of atmospheric pressure radio-frequency capacitive discharges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lazzaroni, C; Lieberman, M A; Lichtenberg, A J; Chabert, P

    2012-01-01

    A one-dimensional hybrid analytical-numerical global model of atmospheric pressure radio-frequency (rf) driven capacitive discharges, previously developed, is compared with a basic global model. A helium feed gas with small admixtures of oxygen is studied. For the hybrid model, the electrical characteristics are calculated analytically as a current-driven homogeneous discharge. The electron power balance is solved analytically to determine a time-varying Maxwellian electron temperature, which oscillates on the rf timescale. Averaging over the rf period yields effective rate coefficients for gas phase activated processes. For the basic global model, the electron temperature is constant in time and the sheath physics is neglected. For both models, the particle balance relations for all species are integrated numerically to determine the equilibrium discharge parameters. Variations of discharge parameters with composition and rf power are determined and compared. The rate coefficients for electron-activated processes are strongly temperature dependent, leading to significantly larger neutral and charged particle densities for the hybrid model. For small devices, finite sheath widths limit the operating regimes to low O 2 fractions. This is captured by the hybrid model but cannot be predicted from the basic global model.

  8. Modeling and Simulation of Multi-scale Environmental Systems with Generalized Hybrid Petri Nets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mostafa eHerajy

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Predicting and studying the dynamics and properties of environmental systems necessitates the construction and simulation of mathematical models entailing different levels of complexities. Such type of computational experiments often require the combination of discrete and continuous variables as well as processes operating at different time scales. Furthermore, the iterative steps of constructing and analyzing environmental models might involve researchers with different background. Hybrid Petri nets may contribute in overcoming such challenges as they facilitate the implementation of systems integrating discrete and continuous dynamics. Additionally, the visual depiction of model components will inevitably help to bridge the gap between scientists with distinct expertise working on the same problem. Thus, modeling environmental systems with hybrid Petri nets enables the construction of complex processes while keeping the models comprehensible for researchers working on the same project with significantly divergent education path. In this paper we propose the utilization of a special class of hybrid Petri nets, Generalized Hybrid Petri Nets (GHPN, to model and simulate environmental systems exposing processes interacting at different time-scales. GHPN integrate stochastic and deterministic semantics as well as other types of special basic events. Moreover, a case study is presented to illustrate the use of GHPN in constructing and simulating multi-timescale environmental scenarios.

  9. A control-oriented cycle-life model for hybrid electric vehicle lithium-ion batteries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suri, Girish; Onori, Simona

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, a semi-empirical Lithium-iron phosphate-graphite battery aging model is identified over data mimicking actual cycling conditions that a hybrid electric vehicle battery encounters under real driving scenarios. The aging model is then used to construct the severity factor map, used to characterize relative aging of the battery under different operating conditions. This is used as a battery degradation criterion within a multi-objective optimization problem where battery aging minimization is to be achieved along with fuel consumption minimization. The method proposed is general and can be applied to other battery chemistry as well as different vehicular applications. Finally, simulations conducted using a hybrid electric vehicle simulator show how the two modeling tools developed in this paper, i.e., the severity factor map and the aging model, can be effectively used in a multi-objective optimization problem to predict and control battery degradation. - Highlights: • Battery aging model for hybrid electric vehicles using real driving conditions data. • Development of a modeling tool to assess battery degradation for real time optimization. • "3"1P NMR analysis of an enzyme-treated extract showed expected hydrolysis of P forms. • Development of an energy management strategy to minimize battery degradation. • Simulation results from hybrid electric vehicle simulator.

  10. Static stiffness modeling of a novel hybrid redundant robot machine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Ming; Wu Huapeng; Handroos, Heikki

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents a modeling method to study the stiffness of a hybrid serial-parallel robot IWR (Intersector Welding Robot) for the assembly of ITER vacuum vessel. The stiffness matrix of the basic element in the robot is evaluated using matrix structural analysis (MSA); the stiffness of the parallel mechanism is investigated by taking account of the deformations of both hydraulic limbs and joints; the stiffness of the whole integrated robot is evaluated by employing the virtual joint method and the principle of virtual work. The obtained stiffness model of the hybrid robot is analytical and the deformation results of the robot workspace under certain external load are presented.

  11. Comparison of Two Hybrid Models for Forecasting the Incidence of Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome in Jiangsu Province, China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Wu

    Full Text Available Cases of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS are widely distributed in eastern Asia, especially in China, Russia, and Korea. It is proved to be a difficult task to eliminate HFRS completely because of the diverse animal reservoirs and effects of global warming. Reliable forecasting is useful for the prevention and control of HFRS.Two hybrid models, one composed of nonlinear autoregressive neural network (NARNN and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA the other composed of generalized regression neural network (GRNN and ARIMA were constructed to predict the incidence of HFRS in the future one year. Performances of the two hybrid models were compared with ARIMA model.The ARIMA, ARIMA-NARNN ARIMA-GRNN model fitted and predicted the seasonal fluctuation well. Among the three models, the mean square error (MSE, mean absolute error (MAE and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE of ARIMA-NARNN hybrid model was the lowest both in modeling stage and forecasting stage. As for the ARIMA-GRNN hybrid model, the MSE, MAE and MAPE of modeling performance and the MSE and MAE of forecasting performance were less than the ARIMA model, but the MAPE of forecasting performance did not improve.Developing and applying the ARIMA-NARNN hybrid model is an effective method to make us better understand the epidemic characteristics of HFRS and could be helpful to the prevention and control of HFRS.

  12. A modeling method for hybrid energy behaviors in flexible machining systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Yufeng; He, Yan; Wang, Yan; Wang, Yulin; Yan, Ping; Lin, Shenlong

    2015-01-01

    Increasingly environmental and economic pressures have led to great concerns regarding the energy consumption of machining systems. Understanding energy behaviors of flexible machining systems is a prerequisite for improving energy efficiency of these systems. This paper proposes a modeling method to predict energy behaviors in flexible machining systems. The hybrid energy behaviors not only depend on the technical specification related of machine tools and workpieces, but are significantly affected by individual production scenarios. In the method, hybrid energy behaviors are decomposed into Structure-related energy behaviors, State-related energy behaviors, Process-related energy behaviors and Assignment-related energy behaviors. The modeling method for the hybrid energy behaviors is proposed based on Colored Timed Object-oriented Petri Net (CTOPN). The former two types of energy behaviors are modeled by constructing the structure of CTOPN, whist the latter two types of behaviors are simulated by applying colored tokens and associated attributes. Machining on two workpieces in the experimental workshop were undertaken to verify the proposed modeling method. The results showed that the method can provide multi-perspective transparency on energy consumption related to machine tools, workpieces as well as production management, and is particularly suitable for flexible manufacturing system when frequent changes in machining systems are often encountered. - Highlights: • Energy behaviors in flexible machining systems are modeled in this paper. • Hybrid characteristics of energy behaviors are examined from multiple viewpoints. • Flexible modeling method CTOPN is used to predict the hybrid energy behaviors. • This work offers a multi-perspective transparency on energy consumption

  13. Modeling of hybrid vehicle fuel economy and fuel engine efficiency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Wei

    "Near-CV" (i.e., near-conventional vehicle) hybrid vehicles, with an internal combustion engine, and a supplementary storage with low-weight, low-energy but high-power capacity, are analyzed. This design avoids the shortcoming of the "near-EV" and the "dual-mode" hybrid vehicles that need a large energy storage system (in terms of energy capacity and weight). The small storage is used to optimize engine energy management and can provide power when needed. The energy advantage of the "near-CV" design is to reduce reliance on the engine at low power, to enable regenerative braking, and to provide good performance with a small engine. The fuel consumption of internal combustion engines, which might be applied to hybrid vehicles, is analyzed by building simple analytical models that reflect the engines' energy loss characteristics. Both diesel and gasoline engines are modeled. The simple analytical models describe engine fuel consumption at any speed and load point by describing the engine's indicated efficiency and friction. The engine's indicated efficiency and heat loss are described in terms of several easy-to-obtain engine parameters, e.g., compression ratio, displacement, bore and stroke. Engine friction is described in terms of parameters obtained by fitting available fuel measurements on several diesel and spark-ignition engines. The engine models developed are shown to conform closely to experimental fuel consumption and motored friction data. A model of the energy use of "near-CV" hybrid vehicles with different storage mechanism is created, based on simple algebraic description of the components. With powertrain downsizing and hybridization, a "near-CV" hybrid vehicle can obtain a factor of approximately two in overall fuel efficiency (mpg) improvement, without considering reductions in the vehicle load.

  14. A New Hybrid Method for Improving the Performance of Myocardial Infarction Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hojatollah Hamidi

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Introduction: Myocardial Infarction, also known as heart attack, normally occurs due to such causes as smoking, family history, diabetes, and so on. It is recognized as one of the leading causes of death in the world. Therefore, the present study aimed to evaluate the performance of classification models in order to predict Myocardial Infarction, using a feature selection method that includes Forward Selection and Genetic Algorithm. Materials & Methods: The Myocardial Infarction data set used in this study contains the information related to 519 visitors to Shahid Madani Specialized Hospital of Khorramabad, Iran. This data set includes 33 features. The proposed method includes a hybrid feature selection method in order to enhance the performance of classification algorithms. The first step of this method selects the features using Forward Selection. At the second step, the selected features were given to a genetic algorithm, in order to select the best features. Classification algorithms entail Ada Boost, Naïve Bayes, J48 decision tree and simpleCART are applied to the data set with selected features, for predicting Myocardial Infarction. Results: The best results have been achieved after applying the proposed feature selection method, which were obtained via simpleCART and J48 algorithms with the accuracies of 96.53% and 96.34%, respectively. Conclusion: Based on the results, the performances of classification algorithms are improved. So, applying the proposed feature selection method, along with classification algorithms seem to be considered as a confident method with respect to predicting the Myocardial Infarction.

  15. Hybrid attacks on model-based social recommender systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Junliang; Gao, Min; Rong, Wenge; Li, Wentao; Xiong, Qingyu; Wen, Junhao

    2017-10-01

    With the growing popularity of the online social platform, the social network based approaches to recommendation emerged. However, because of the open nature of rating systems and social networks, the social recommender systems are susceptible to malicious attacks. In this paper, we present a certain novel attack, which inherits characteristics of the rating attack and the relation attack, and term it hybrid attack. Furtherly, we explore the impact of the hybrid attack on model-based social recommender systems in multiple aspects. The experimental results show that, the hybrid attack is more destructive than the rating attack in most cases. In addition, users and items with fewer ratings will be influenced more when attacked. Last but not the least, the findings suggest that spammers do not depend on the feedback links from normal users to become more powerful, the unilateral links can make the hybrid attack effective enough. Since unilateral links are much cheaper, the hybrid attack will be a great threat to model-based social recommender systems.

  16. Thermal modeling of a hydraulic hybrid vehicle transmission based on thermodynamic analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kwon, Hyukjoon; Sprengel, Michael; Ivantysynova, Monika

    2016-01-01

    Hybrid vehicles have become a popular alternative to conventional powertrain architectures by offering improved fuel efficiency along with a range of environmental benefits. Hydraulic Hybrid Vehicles (HHV) offer one approach to hybridization with many benefits over competing technologies. Among these benefits are lower component costs, more environmentally friendly construction materials, and the ability to recover a greater quantity of energy during regenerative braking which make HHVs partially well suited to urban environments. In order to further the knowledge base regarding HHVs, this paper explores the thermodynamic characteristics of such a system. A system model is detailed for both the hydraulic and thermal components of a closed circuit hydraulic hybrid transmission following the FTP-72 driving cycle. Among the new techniques proposed in this paper is a novel method for capturing rapid thermal transients. This paper concludes by comparing the results of this model with experimental data gathered on a Hardware-in-the-Loop (HIL) transmission dynamometer possessing the same architecture, components, and driving cycle used within the simulation model. This approach can be used for several applications such as thermal stability analysis of HHVs, optimal thermal management, and analysis of the system's thermodynamic efficiency. - Highlights: • Thermal modeling for HHVs is introduced. • A model for the hydraulic and thermal system is developed for HHVs. • A novel method for capturing rapid thermal transients is proposed. • The thermodynamic system diagram of a series HHV is predicted.

  17. Hybrid Reynolds-Averaged/Large Eddy Simulation of a Cavity Flameholder; Assessment of Modeling Sensitivities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baurle, R. A.

    2015-01-01

    Steady-state and scale-resolving simulations have been performed for flow in and around a model scramjet combustor flameholder. The cases simulated corresponded to those used to examine this flowfield experimentally using particle image velocimetry. A variety of turbulence models were used for the steady-state Reynolds-averaged simulations which included both linear and non-linear eddy viscosity models. The scale-resolving simulations used a hybrid Reynolds-averaged / large eddy simulation strategy that is designed to be a large eddy simulation everywhere except in the inner portion (log layer and below) of the boundary layer. Hence, this formulation can be regarded as a wall-modeled large eddy simulation. This effort was undertaken to formally assess the performance of the hybrid Reynolds-averaged / large eddy simulation modeling approach in a flowfield of interest to the scramjet research community. The numerical errors were quantified for both the steady-state and scale-resolving simulations prior to making any claims of predictive accuracy relative to the measurements. The steady-state Reynolds-averaged results showed a high degree of variability when comparing the predictions obtained from each turbulence model, with the non-linear eddy viscosity model (an explicit algebraic stress model) providing the most accurate prediction of the measured values. The hybrid Reynolds-averaged/large eddy simulation results were carefully scrutinized to ensure that even the coarsest grid had an acceptable level of resolution for large eddy simulation, and that the time-averaged statistics were acceptably accurate. The autocorrelation and its Fourier transform were the primary tools used for this assessment. The statistics extracted from the hybrid simulation strategy proved to be more accurate than the Reynolds-averaged results obtained using the linear eddy viscosity models. However, there was no predictive improvement noted over the results obtained from the explicit

  18. Hybrid RPA-cluster model for the dipole strength function of sup(11)Li

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Teruya, N.; Bertulani, C.A.; Krewald, S.

    1990-09-01

    A hybrid RPA-cluster model is developed and applied to the calculation of the dipole response of sup(11)L1. A strong collective state at 1.81 MeV is found. Its width is predicted to be 4.0 MeV. The electromagnetic excitation cross section was found to be 700 mb for sup(11)L1 + sup(208)Pb (E = 800 MeV/n), close to the experimental result. (author)

  19. Simulation of Mercury's magnetosheath with a combined hybrid-paraboloid model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parunakian, David; Dyadechkin, Sergey; Alexeev, Igor; Belenkaya, Elena; Khodachenko, Maxim; Kallio, Esa; Alho, Markku

    2017-08-01

    In this paper we introduce a novel approach for modeling planetary magnetospheres that involves a combination of the hybrid model and the paraboloid magnetosphere model (PMM); we further refer to it as the combined hybrid model. While both of these individual models have been successfully applied in the past, their combination enables us both to overcome the traditional difficulties of hybrid models to develop a self-consistent magnetic field and to compensate the lack of plasma simulation in the PMM. We then use this combined model to simulate Mercury's magnetosphere and investigate the geometry and configuration of Mercury's magnetosheath controlled by various conditions in the interplanetary medium. The developed approach provides a unique comprehensive view of Mercury's magnetospheric environment for the first time. Using this setup, we compare the locations of the bow shock and the magnetopause as determined by simulations with the locations predicted by stand-alone PMM runs and also verify the magnetic and dynamic pressure balance at the magnetopause. We also compare the results produced by these simulations with observational data obtained by the magnetometer on board the MErcury Surface, Space ENvironment, GEochemistry, and Ranging (MESSENGER) spacecraft along a dusk-dawn orbit and discuss the signatures of the magnetospheric features that appear in these simulations. Overall, our analysis suggests that combining the semiempirical PMM with a self-consistent global kinetic model creates new modeling possibilities which individual models cannot provide on their own.

  20. Computation of the Lyapunov exponents in the compass-gait model under OGY control via a hybrid Poincaré map

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gritli, Hassène; Belghith, Safya

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • A numerical calculation method of the Lyapunov exponents in the compass-gait model under OGY control is proposed. • A new linearization method of the impulsive hybrid dynamics around a one-periodic hybrid limit cycle is achieved. • We develop a simple analytical expression of a controlled hybrid Poincaré map. • A dimension reduction of the hybrid Poincaré map is realized. • We describe the numerical computation procedure of the Lyapunov exponents via the designed hybrid Poincaré map. - Abstract: This paper aims at providing a numerical calculation method of the spectrum of Lyapunov exponents in a four-dimensional impulsive hybrid nonlinear dynamics of a passive compass-gait model under the OGY control approach by means of a controlled hybrid Poincaré map. We present a four-dimensional simplified analytical expression of such hybrid map obtained by linearizing the uncontrolled impulsive hybrid nonlinear dynamics around a desired one-periodic passive hybrid limit cycle. In order to compute the spectrum of Lyapunov exponents, a dimension reduction of the controlled hybrid Poincaré map is realized. The numerical calculation of the spectrum of Lyapunov exponents using the reduced-dimension controlled hybrid Poincaré map is given in detail. In order to show the effectiveness of the developed method, the spectrum of Lyapunov exponents is calculated as the slope (bifurcation) parameter varies and hence used to predict the walking dynamics behavior of the compass-gait model under the OGY control.

  1. A New Model for Baryogenesis through Hybrid Inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delepine, D.; Prieto, C. Martinez; Lopez, L. A. Urena

    2009-01-01

    We propose a hybrid inflation model with a complex waterfall field which contains an interaction term that breaks the U(1) global symmetry associated to the waterfall field charge. The asymmetric evolution of the real and imaginary parts of the complex field during the phase transition at the end of inflation translates into a charge asymmetry.

  2. A novel Monte Carlo approach to hybrid local volatility models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A.W. van der Stoep (Anton); L.A. Grzelak (Lech Aleksander); C.W. Oosterlee (Cornelis)

    2017-01-01

    textabstractWe present in a Monte Carlo simulation framework, a novel approach for the evaluation of hybrid local volatility [Risk, 1994, 7, 18–20], [Int. J. Theor. Appl. Finance, 1998, 1, 61–110] models. In particular, we consider the stochastic local volatility model—see e.g. Lipton et al. [Quant.

  3. New Models of Hybrid Leadership in Global Higher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tonini, Donna C.; Burbules, Nicholas C.; Gunsalus, C. K.

    2016-01-01

    This manuscript highlights the development of a leadership preparation program known as the Nanyang Technological University Leadership Academy (NTULA), exploring the leadership challenges unique to a university undergoing rapid growth in a highly multicultural context, and the hybrid model of leadership it developed in response to globalization.…

  4. Modeling of Hybrid Growth Wastewater Bio-reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    EI Nashaei, S.; Garhyan, P.; Prasad, P.; Abdel Halim, H.S.; Ibrahim, G.

    2004-01-01

    The attached/suspended growth mixed reactors are considered one of the recently tried approaches to improve the performance of the biological treatment by increasing the volume of the accumulated biomass in terms of attached growth as well as suspended growth. Moreover, the domestic WW can be easily mixed with a high strength non-hazardous industrial wastewater and treated together in these bio-reactors if the need arises. Modeling of Hybrid hybrid growth wastewater reactor addresses the need of understanding the rational of such system in order to achieve better design and operation parameters. This paper aims at developing a heterogeneous mathematical model for hybrid growth system considering the effect of diffusion, external mass transfer, and power input to the system in a rational manner. The model will be based on distinguishing between liquid/solid phase (bio-film and bio-floc). This model would be a step ahead to the fine tuning the design of hybrid systems based on the experimental data of a pilot plant to be implemented in near future

  5. Hybrid time/frequency domain modeling of nonlinear components

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wiechowski, Wojciech Tomasz; Lykkegaard, Jan; Bak, Claus Leth

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents a novel, three-phase hybrid time/frequency methodology for modelling of nonlinear components. The algorithm has been implemented in the DIgSILENT PowerFactory software using the DIgSILENT Programming Language (DPL), as a part of the work described in [1]. Modified HVDC benchmark...

  6. Efficient Proof Engines for Bounded Model Checking of Hybrid Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fränzle, Martin; Herde, Christian

    2005-01-01

    In this paper we present HySat, a new bounded model checker for linear hybrid systems, incorporating a tight integration of a DPLL-based pseudo-Boolean SAT solver and a linear programming routine as core engine. In contrast to related tools like MathSAT, ICS, or CVC, our tool exploits all...

  7. Travelling Waves in Hybrid Chemotaxis Models

    KAUST Repository

    Franz, Benjamin; Xue, Chuan; Painter, Kevin J.; Erban, Radek

    2013-01-01

    . Bacteria are modelled using an agent-based (individual-based) approach with internal dynamics describing signal transduction. In addition to the chemotactic behaviour of the bacteria, the individual-based model also includes cell proliferation and death

  8. Hybrid modelling of soil-structure interaction for embedded structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gupta, S.; Penzien, J.

    1981-01-01

    The basic methods currently being used for the analysis of soil-structure interaction fail to properly model three-dimensional embedded structures with flexible foundations. A hybrid model for the analysis of soil-structure interaction is developed in this investigation which takes advantage of the desirable features of both the finite element and substructure methods and which minimizes their undesirable features. The hybrid model is obtained by partitioning the total soil-structure system into a nearfield and a far-field with a smooth hemispherical interface. The near-field consists of the structure and a finite region of soil immediately surrounding its base. The entire near-field may be modelled in three-dimensional form using the finite element method; thus, taking advantage of its ability to model irregular geometries, and the non-linear soil behavior in the immediate vicinity of the structure. (orig./WL)

  9. Characterizing haploinsufficiency of SHELL gene to improve fruit form prediction in introgressive hybrids of oil palm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teh, Chee-Keng; Muaz, Siti Dalila; Tangaya, Praveena; Fong, Po-Yee; Ong, Ai-Ling; Mayes, Sean; Chew, Fook-Tim; Kulaveerasingam, Harikrishna; Appleton, David

    2017-06-08

    The fundamental trait in selective breeding of oil palm (Eleais guineensis Jacq.) is the shell thickness surrounding the kernel. The monogenic shell thickness is inversely correlated to mesocarp thickness, where the crude palm oil accumulates. Commercial thin-shelled tenera derived from thick-shelled dura × shell-less pisifera generally contain 30% higher oil per bunch. Two mutations, sh MPOB (M1) and sh AVROS (M2) in the SHELL gene - a type II MADS-box transcription factor mainly present in AVROS and Nigerian origins, were reported to be responsible for different fruit forms. In this study, we have tested 1,339 samples maintained in Sime Darby Plantation using both mutations. Five genotype-phenotype discrepancies and eight controls were then re-tested with all five reported mutations (sh AVROS , sh MPOB , sh MPOB2 , sh MPOB3 and sh MPOB4 ) within the same gene. The integration of genotypic data, pedigree records and shell formation model further explained the haploinsufficiency effect on the SHELL gene with different number of functional copies. Some rare mutations were also identified, suggesting a need to further confirm the existence of cis-compound mutations in the gene. With this, the prediction accuracy of fruit forms can be further improved, especially in introgressive hybrids of oil palm. Understanding causative variant segregation is extremely important, even for monogenic traits such as shell thickness in oil palm.

  10. A hybrid modelling approach to simulating foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks in Australian livestock

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard A Bradhurst

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD is a highly contagious and economically important viral disease of cloven-hoofed animals. Australia's freedom from FMD underpins a valuable trade in live animals and animal products. An outbreak of FMD would result in the loss of export markets and cause severe disruption to domestic markets. The prevention of, and contingency planning for, FMD are of key importance to government, industry, producers and the community. The spread and control of FMD is complex and dynamic due to a highly contagious multi-host pathogen operating in a heterogeneous environment across multiple jurisdictions. Epidemiological modelling is increasingly being recognized as a valuable tool for investigating the spread of disease under different conditions and the effectiveness of control strategies. Models of infectious disease can be broadly classified as: population-based models that are formulated from the top-down and employ population-level relationships to describe individual-level behaviour, individual-based models that are formulated from the bottom-up and aggregate individual-level behaviour to reveal population-level relationships, or hybrid models which combine the two approaches into a single model.The Australian Animal Disease Spread (AADIS hybrid model employs a deterministic equation-based model (EBM to model within-herd spread of FMD, and a stochastic, spatially-explicit agent-based model (ABM to model between-herd spread and control. The EBM provides concise and computationally efficient predictions of herd prevalence and clinical signs over time. The ABM captures the complex, stochastic and heterogeneous environment in which an FMD epidemic operates. The AADIS event-driven hybrid EBM/ABM architecture is a flexible, efficient and extensible framework for modelling the spread and control of disease in livestock on a national scale. We present an overview of the AADIS hybrid approach and a description of the model

  11. A hybrid method of prediction of the void fraction during depressurization of diabatic systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Inayatullah, G.; Nicoll, W.B.; Hancox, W.T.

    1977-01-01

    The variation in vapour volumetric fraction during transient pressure, flow and power is of considerable importance in water-cooled nuclear power-reactor safety analysis. The commonly adopted procedure to predict the transient void is to solve the conservation equations using finite differences. This present method is intermediate between numerical and analytic, hence 'hybrid'. Space and time are divided into discrete intervals. Their size, however, is dictated by the imposed heat flux and pressure variations, and not by truncation error, stability or convergence, because within an interval, the solutions applied are analytic. The relatively simple hybrid method presented here can predict the void distribution in a variety of transient, diabatic, two-phase flows with simplicity, accuracy and speed. (Auth.)

  12. REVIEW OF HEART DISEASE PREDICTION SYSTEM USING DATA MINING AND HYBRID INTELLIGENT TECHNIQUES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Chitra

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The Healthcare industry generally clinical diagnosis is done mostly by doctor’s expertise and experience. Computer Aided Decision Support System plays a major role in medical field. With the growing research on heart disease predicting system, it has become important to categories the research outcomes and provides readers with an overview of the existing heart disease prediction techniques in each category. Neural Networks are one of many data mining analytical tools that can be utilized to make predictions for medical data. From the study it is observed that Hybrid Intelligent Algorithm improves the accuracy of the heart disease prediction system. The commonly used techniques for Heart Disease Prediction and their complexities are summarized in this paper.

  13. Artificial Neural Network and Genetic Algorithm Hybrid Intelligence for Predicting Thai Stock Price Index Trend

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boonjing, Veera; Intakosum, Sarun

    2016-01-01

    This study investigated the use of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Genetic Algorithm (GA) for prediction of Thailand's SET50 index trend. ANN is a widely accepted machine learning method that uses past data to predict future trend, while GA is an algorithm that can find better subsets of input variables for importing into ANN, hence enabling more accurate prediction by its efficient feature selection. The imported data were chosen technical indicators highly regarded by stock analysts, each represented by 4 input variables that were based on past time spans of 4 different lengths: 3-, 5-, 10-, and 15-day spans before the day of prediction. This import undertaking generated a big set of diverse input variables with an exponentially higher number of possible subsets that GA culled down to a manageable number of more effective ones. SET50 index data of the past 6 years, from 2009 to 2014, were used to evaluate this hybrid intelligence prediction accuracy, and the hybrid's prediction results were found to be more accurate than those made by a method using only one input variable for one fixed length of past time span. PMID:27974883

  14. Electricity market price spike analysis by a hybrid data model and feature selection technique

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amjady, Nima; Keynia, Farshid

    2010-01-01

    In a competitive electricity market, energy price forecasting is an important activity for both suppliers and consumers. For this reason, many techniques have been proposed to predict electricity market prices in the recent years. However, electricity price is a complex volatile signal owning many spikes. Most of electricity price forecast techniques focus on the normal price prediction, while price spike forecast is a different and more complex prediction process. Price spike forecasting has two main aspects: prediction of price spike occurrence and value. In this paper, a novel technique for price spike occurrence prediction is presented composed of a new hybrid data model, a novel feature selection technique and an efficient forecast engine. The hybrid data model includes both wavelet and time domain variables as well as calendar indicators, comprising a large candidate input set. The set is refined by the proposed feature selection technique evaluating both relevancy and redundancy of the candidate inputs. The forecast engine is a probabilistic neural network, which are fed by the selected candidate inputs of the feature selection technique and predict price spike occurrence. The efficiency of the whole proposed method for price spike occurrence forecasting is evaluated by means of real data from the Queensland and PJM electricity markets. (author)

  15. A hybrid parallel framework for the cellular Potts model simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jiang, Yi [Los Alamos National Laboratory; He, Kejing [SOUTH CHINA UNIV; Dong, Shoubin [SOUTH CHINA UNIV

    2009-01-01

    The Cellular Potts Model (CPM) has been widely used for biological simulations. However, most current implementations are either sequential or approximated, which can't be used for large scale complex 3D simulation. In this paper we present a hybrid parallel framework for CPM simulations. The time-consuming POE solving, cell division, and cell reaction operation are distributed to clusters using the Message Passing Interface (MPI). The Monte Carlo lattice update is parallelized on shared-memory SMP system using OpenMP. Because the Monte Carlo lattice update is much faster than the POE solving and SMP systems are more and more common, this hybrid approach achieves good performance and high accuracy at the same time. Based on the parallel Cellular Potts Model, we studied the avascular tumor growth using a multiscale model. The application and performance analysis show that the hybrid parallel framework is quite efficient. The hybrid parallel CPM can be used for the large scale simulation ({approx}10{sup 8} sites) of complex collective behavior of numerous cells ({approx}10{sup 6}).

  16. Modelling and analysis of real-time and hybrid systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Olivero, A

    1994-09-29

    This work deals with the modelling and analysis of real-time and hybrid systems. We first present the timed-graphs as model for the real-time systems and we recall the basic notions of the analysis of real-time systems. We describe the temporal properties on the timed-graphs using TCTL formulas. We consider two methods for property verification: in one hand we study the symbolic model-checking (based on backward analysis) and in the other hand we propose a verification method derived of the construction of the simulation graph (based on forward analysis). Both methods have been implemented within the KRONOS verification tool. Their application for the automatic verification on several real-time systems confirms the practical interest of our approach. In a second part we study the hybrid systems, systems combining discrete components with continuous ones. As in the general case the analysis of this king of systems is not decidable, we identify two sub-classes of hybrid systems and we give a construction based method for the generation of a timed-graph from an element into the sub-classes. We prove that in one case the timed-graph obtained is bi-similar with the considered system and that there exists a simulation in the other case. These relationships allow the application of the described technics on the hybrid systems into the defined sub-classes. (authors). 60 refs., 43 figs., 8 tabs., 2 annexes.

  17. Model Prediction Control For Water Management Using Adaptive Prediction Accuracy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tian, X.; Negenborn, R.R.; Van Overloop, P.J.A.T.M.; Mostert, E.

    2014-01-01

    In the field of operational water management, Model Predictive Control (MPC) has gained popularity owing to its versatility and flexibility. The MPC controller, which takes predictions, time delay and uncertainties into account, can be designed for multi-objective management problems and for

  18. A 'simple' hybrid model for power derivatives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lyle, Matthew R.; Elliott, Robert J.

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents a method for valuing power derivatives using a supply-demand approach. Our method extends work in the field by incorporating randomness into the base load portion of the supply stack function and equating it with a noisy demand process. We obtain closed form solutions for European option prices written on average spot prices considering two different supply models: a mean-reverting model and a Markov chain model. The results are extensions of the classic Black-Scholes equation. The model provides a relatively simple approach to describe the complicated price behaviour observed in electricity spot markets and also allows for computationally efficient derivatives pricing. (author)

  19. Wind speed forecasting in three different regions of Mexico, using a hybrid ARIMA-ANN model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cadenas, Erasmo [Facultad de Ingenieria Mecanica, Universidad Michoacana de San Nicolas de Hidalgo, Santiago Tapia No. 403, Centro (Mexico); Rivera, Wilfrido [Centro de Ivestigacion en Energia, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Apartado Postal 34, Temixco 62580, Morelos (Mexico)

    2010-12-15

    In this paper the wind speed forecasting in the Isla de Cedros in Baja California, in the Cerro de la Virgen in Zacatecas and in Holbox in Quintana Roo is presented. The time series utilized are average hourly wind speed data obtained directly from the measurements realized in the different sites during about one month. In order to do wind speed forecasting Hybrid models consisting of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models were developed. The ARIMA models were first used to do the wind speed forecasting of the time series and then with the obtained errors ANN were built taking into account the nonlinear tendencies that the ARIMA technique could not identify, reducing with this the final errors. Once the Hybrid models were developed 48 data out of sample for each one of the sites were used to do the wind speed forecasting and the results were compared with the ARIMA and the ANN models working separately. Statistical error measures such as the mean error (ME), the mean square error (MSE) and the mean absolute error (MAE) were calculated to compare the three methods. The results showed that the Hybrid models predict the wind velocities with a higher accuracy than the ARIMA and ANN models in the three examined sites. (author)

  20. On the Likely Utility of Hybrid Weights Optimized for Variances in Hybrid Error Covariance Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satterfield, E.; Hodyss, D.; Kuhl, D.; Bishop, C. H.

    2017-12-01

    Because of imperfections in ensemble data assimilation schemes, one cannot assume that the ensemble covariance is equal to the true error covariance of a forecast. Previous work demonstrated how information about the distribution of true error variances given an ensemble sample variance can be revealed from an archive of (observation-minus-forecast, ensemble-variance) data pairs. Here, we derive a simple and intuitively compelling formula to obtain the mean of this distribution of true error variances given an ensemble sample variance from (observation-minus-forecast, ensemble-variance) data pairs produced by a single run of a data assimilation system. This formula takes the form of a Hybrid weighted average of the climatological forecast error variance and the ensemble sample variance. Here, we test the extent to which these readily obtainable weights can be used to rapidly optimize the covariance weights used in Hybrid data assimilation systems that employ weighted averages of static covariance models and flow-dependent ensemble based covariance models. Univariate data assimilation and multi-variate cycling ensemble data assimilation are considered. In both cases, it is found that our computationally efficient formula gives Hybrid weights that closely approximate the optimal weights found through the simple but computationally expensive process of testing every plausible combination of weights.

  1. A hybrid society model for simulating residential electricity consumption

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xu, Minjie [School of Electrical Engineering, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing (China); State Power Economic Research Institute, Beijing (China); Hu, Zhaoguang [State Power Economic Research Institute, Beijing (China); Wu, Junyong; Zhou, Yuhui [School of Electrical Engineering, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing (China)

    2008-12-15

    In this paper, a hybrid social model of econometric model and social influence model is proposed for evaluating the influence of pricing policy and public education policy on residential habit of electricity using in power resources management. And, a hybrid society simulation platform based on the proposed model, called residential electricity consumption multi-agent systems (RECMAS), is designed for simulating residential electricity consumption by multi-agent system. RECMAS is composed of consumer agent, power supplier agent, and policy maker agent. It provides the policy makers with a useful tool to evaluate power price policies and public education campaigns in different scenarios. According to an influenced diffusion mechanism, RECMAS can simulate the residential electricity demand-supply chain and analyze impacts of the factors on residential electricity consumption. Finally, the proposed method is used to simulate urban residential electricity consumption in China. (author)

  2. A hybrid society model for simulating residential electricity consumption

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xu, Minjie; Hu, Zhaoguang; Wu, Junyong; Zhou, Yuhui

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, a hybrid social model of econometric model and social influence model is proposed for evaluating the influence of pricing policy and public education policy on residential habit of electricity using in power resources management. And, a hybrid society simulation platform based on the proposed model, called residential electricity consumption multi-agent systems (RECMAS), is designed for simulating residential electricity consumption by multi-agent system. RECMAS is composed of consumer agent, power supplier agent, and policy maker agent. It provides the policy makers with a useful tool to evaluate power price policies and public education campaigns in different scenarios. According to an influenced diffusion mechanism, RECMAS can simulate the residential electricity demand-supply chain and analyze impacts of the factors on residential electricity consumption. Finally, the proposed method is used to simulate urban residential electricity consumption in China. (author)

  3. Hybrid nested sampling algorithm for Bayesian model selection applied to inverse subsurface flow problems

    KAUST Repository

    Elsheikh, Ahmed H.; Wheeler, Mary Fanett; Hoteit, Ibrahim

    2014-01-01

    A Hybrid Nested Sampling (HNS) algorithm is proposed for efficient Bayesian model calibration and prior model selection. The proposed algorithm combines, Nested Sampling (NS) algorithm, Hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) sampling and gradient estimation using

  4. Modelling and simulation of a hybrid solar heating system for greenhouse applications using Matlab/Simulink

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kıyan, Metin; Bingöl, Ekin; Melikoğlu, Mehmet; Albostan, Ayhan

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • Matlab/Simulink modelling of a solar hybrid greenhouse. • Estimation of greenhouse gas emission reductions. • Feasibility and cost analysis of the system. - Abstract: Solar energy is a major renewable energy source and hybrid solar systems are gaining increased academic and industrial attention due to the unique advantages they offer. In this paper, a mathematical model has been developed to investigate the thermal behavior of a greenhouse heated by a hybrid solar collector system. This hybrid system contains an evacuated tube solar heat collector unit, an auxiliary fossil fuel heating unit, a hot water storage unit, control and piping units. A Matlab/Simulink based model and software has been developed to predict the storage water temperature, greenhouse indoor temperature and the amount of auxiliary fuel, as a function of various design parameters of the greenhouse such as location, dimensions, and meteorological data of the region. As a case study, a greenhouse located in Şanlıurfa/Turkey has been simulated based on recent meteorological data and aforementioned hybrid system. The results of simulations performed on an annual basis indicate that revising the existing fossil fuel system with the proposed hybrid system, is economically feasible for most cases, however it requires a slightly longer payback period than expected. On the other hand, by reducing the greenhouse gas emissions significantly, it has a considerable positive environmental impact. The developed dynamic simulation method can be further used for designing heating systems for various solar greenhouses and optimizing the solar collector and thermal storage sizes

  5. A Hybrid Physical and Maximum-Entropy Landslide Susceptibility Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jerry Davis

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The clear need for accurate landslide susceptibility mapping has led to multiple approaches. Physical models are easily interpreted and have high predictive capabilities but rely on spatially explicit and accurate parameterization, which is commonly not possible. Statistical methods can include other factors influencing slope stability such as distance to roads, but rely on good landslide inventories. The maximum entropy (MaxEnt model has been widely and successfully used in species distribution mapping, because data on absence are often uncertain. Similarly, knowledge about the absence of landslides is often limited due to mapping scale or methodology. In this paper a hybrid approach is described that combines the physically-based landslide susceptibility model “Stability INdex MAPping” (SINMAP with MaxEnt. This method is tested in a coastal watershed in Pacifica, CA, USA, with a well-documented landslide history including 3 inventories of 154 scars on 1941 imagery, 142 in 1975, and 253 in 1983. Results indicate that SINMAP alone overestimated susceptibility due to insufficient data on root cohesion. Models were compared using SINMAP stability index (SI or slope alone, and SI or slope in combination with other environmental factors: curvature, a 50-m trail buffer, vegetation, and geology. For 1941 and 1975, using slope alone was similar to using SI alone; however in 1983 SI alone creates an Areas Under the receiver operator Curve (AUC of 0.785, compared with 0.749 for slope alone. In maximum-entropy models created using all environmental factors, the stability index (SI from SINMAP represented the greatest contributions in all three years (1941: 48.1%; 1975: 35.3; and 1983: 48%, with AUC of 0.795, 0822, and 0.859, respectively; however; using slope instead of SI created similar overall AUC values, likely due to the combined effect with plan curvature indicating focused hydrologic inputs and vegetation identifying the effect of root cohesion

  6. The semantics of hybrid process models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Slaats, T.; Schunselaar, D.M.M.; Maggi, F.M.; Reijers, H.A.; Debruyne, C.; Panetto, H.; Meersman, R.; Dillon, T.; Kuhn, E.; O'Sullivan, D.; Agostino Ardagna, C.

    2016-01-01

    In the area of business process modelling, declarative notations have been proposed as alternatives to notations that follow the dominant, imperative paradigm. Yet, the choice between an imperative or declarative style of modelling is not always easy to make. Instead, a mixture of these styles is

  7. A hybrid PSO-ANFIS approach for short-term wind power prediction in Portugal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pousinho, H.M.I.; Mendes, V.M.F.; Catalao, J.P.S.

    2011-01-01

    The increased integration of wind power into the electric grid, as nowadays occurs in Portugal, poses new challenges due to its intermittency and volatility. Wind power prediction plays a key role in tackling these challenges. The contribution of this paper is to propose a new hybrid approach, combining particle swarm optimization and adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system, for short-term wind power prediction in Portugal. Significant improvements regarding forecasting accuracy are attainable using the proposed approach, in comparison with the results obtained with five other approaches.

  8. A hybrid PSO-ANFIS approach for short-term wind power prediction in Portugal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pousinho, H.M.I. [Department of Electromechanical Engineering, University of Beira Interior, R. Fonte do Lameiro, 6201-001 Covilha (Portugal); Mendes, V.M.F. [Department of Electrical Engineering and Automation, Instituto Superior de Engenharia de Lisboa, R. Conselheiro Emidio Navarro, 1950-062 Lisbon (Portugal); Catalao, J.P.S. [Department of Electromechanical Engineering, University of Beira Interior, R. Fonte do Lameiro, 6201-001 Covilha (Portugal); Center for Innovation in Electrical and Energy Engineering, Instituto Superior Tecnico, Technical University of Lisbon, Av. Rovisco Pais, 1049-001 Lisbon (Portugal)

    2011-01-15

    The increased integration of wind power into the electric grid, as nowadays occurs in Portugal, poses new challenges due to its intermittency and volatility. Wind power prediction plays a key role in tackling these challenges. The contribution of this paper is to propose a new hybrid approach, combining particle swarm optimization and adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system, for short-term wind power prediction in Portugal. Significant improvements regarding forecasting accuracy are attainable using the proposed approach, in comparison with the results obtained with five other approaches. (author)

  9. Preliminary analysis on hybrid Box-Jenkins - GARCH modeling in forecasting gold price

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yaziz, Siti Roslindar; Azizan, Noor Azlinna; Ahmad, Maizah Hura; Zakaria, Roslinazairimah; Agrawal, Manju; Boland, John

    2015-02-01

    Gold has been regarded as a valuable precious metal and the most popular commodity as a healthy return investment. Hence, the analysis and prediction of gold price become very significant to investors. This study is a preliminary analysis on gold price and its volatility that focuses on the performance of hybrid Box-Jenkins models together with GARCH in analyzing and forecasting gold price. The Box-Cox formula is used as the data transformation method due to its potential best practice in normalizing data, stabilizing variance and reduces heteroscedasticity using 41-year daily gold price data series starting 2nd January 1973. Our study indicates that the proposed hybrid model ARIMA-GARCH with t-innovation can be a new potential approach in forecasting gold price. This finding proves the strength of GARCH in handling volatility in the gold price as well as overcomes the non-linear limitation in the Box-Jenkins modeling.

  10. A computational model for lower hybrid current drive

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Englade, R.C.; Bonoli, P.T.; Porkolab, M.

    1983-01-01

    A detailed simulation model for lower hybrid (LH) current drive in toroidal devices is discussed. This model accounts reasonably well for the magnitude of radio frequency (RF) current observed in the PLT and Alcator C devices. It also reproduces the experimental dependencies of RF current generation on toroidal magnetic field and has provided insights about mechanisms which may underlie the observed density limit of current drive. (author)

  11. A Hybrid Model for Forecasting Sales in Turkish Paint Industry

    OpenAIRE

    Alp Ustundag

    2009-01-01

    Sales forecasting is important for facilitating effective and efficient allocation of scarce resources. However, how to best model and forecast sales has been a long-standing issue. There is no best forecasting method that is applicable in all circumstances. Therefore, confidence in the accuracy of sales forecasts is achieved by corroborating the results using two or more methods. This paper proposes a hybrid forecasting model that uses an artificial intelligence method (AI) w...

  12. Hybrid Neuro-Fuzzy Classifier Based On Nefclass Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bogdan Gliwa

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents hybrid neuro-fuzzy classifier, based on NEFCLASS model, which wasmodified. The presented classifier was compared to popular classifiers – neural networks andk-nearest neighbours. Efficiency of modifications in classifier was compared with methodsused in original model NEFCLASS (learning methods. Accuracy of classifier was testedusing 3 datasets from UCI Machine Learning Repository: iris, wine and breast cancer wisconsin.Moreover, influence of ensemble classification methods on classification accuracy waspresented.

  13. Apricot - An Object-Oriented Modeling Language for Hybrid Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Fang, Huixing; Zhu, Huibiao; Shi, Jianqi

    2013-01-01

    We propose Apricot as an object-oriented language for modeling hybrid systems. The language combines the features in domain specific language and object-oriented language, that fills the gap between design and implementation, as a result, we put forward the modeling language with simple and distinct syntax, structure and semantics. In addition, we introduce the concept of design by convention into Apricot.As the characteristic of object-oriented and the component architecture in Apricot, we c...

  14. Hierarchical models and iterative optimization of hybrid systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rasina, Irina V. [Ailamazyan Program Systems Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, Peter One str. 4a, Pereslavl-Zalessky, 152021 (Russian Federation); Baturina, Olga V. [Trapeznikov Control Sciences Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, Profsoyuznaya str. 65, 117997, Moscow (Russian Federation); Nasatueva, Soelma N. [Buryat State University, Smolina str.24a, Ulan-Ude, 670000 (Russian Federation)

    2016-06-08

    A class of hybrid control systems on the base of two-level discrete-continuous model is considered. The concept of this model was proposed and developed in preceding works as a concretization of the general multi-step system with related optimality conditions. A new iterative optimization procedure for such systems is developed on the base of localization of the global optimality conditions via contraction the control set.

  15. Hybrid incompatibility arises in a sequence-based bioenergetic model of transcription factor binding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tulchinsky, Alexander Y; Johnson, Norman A; Watt, Ward B; Porter, Adam H

    2014-11-01

    hybrid incompatibility than F1's to the extent that the bioenergetic properties favored dominant regulatory interactions. The present model is a mechanistically explicit case of the Bateson-Dobzhansky-Muller model, connecting environmental selective pressure to hybrid incompatibility through the molecular mechanism of regulatory divergence. The bioenergetic parameters that determine expression represent measurable properties of transcriptional regulation, providing a predictive framework for empirical studies of how phenotypic evolution results in epistatic incompatibility at the molecular level in hybrids. Copyright © 2014 by the Genetics Society of America.

  16. A Generalized Hybrid Multiscale Modeling Approach for Flow and Reactive Transport in Porous Media

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, X.; Meng, X.; Tang, Y. H.; Guo, Z.; Karniadakis, G. E.

    2017-12-01

    Using emerging understanding of biological and environmental processes at fundamental scales to advance predictions of the larger system behavior requires the development of multiscale approaches, and there is strong interest in coupling models at different scales together in a hybrid multiscale simulation framework. A limited number of hybrid multiscale simulation methods have been developed for subsurface applications, mostly using application-specific approaches for model coupling. The proposed generalized hybrid multiscale approach is designed with minimal intrusiveness to the at-scale simulators (pre-selected) and provides a set of lightweight C++ scripts to manage a complex multiscale workflow utilizing a concurrent coupling approach. The workflow includes at-scale simulators (using the lattice-Boltzmann method, LBM, at the pore and Darcy scale, respectively), scripts for boundary treatment (coupling and kriging), and a multiscale universal interface (MUI) for data exchange. The current study aims to apply the generalized hybrid multiscale modeling approach to couple pore- and Darcy-scale models for flow and mixing-controlled reaction with precipitation/dissolution in heterogeneous porous media. The model domain is packed heterogeneously that the mixing front geometry is more complex and not known a priori. To address those challenges, the generalized hybrid multiscale modeling approach is further developed to 1) adaptively define the locations of pore-scale subdomains, 2) provide a suite of physical boundary coupling schemes and 3) consider the dynamic change of the pore structures due to mineral precipitation/dissolution. The results are validated and evaluated by comparing with single-scale simulations in terms of velocities, reactive concentrations and computing cost.

  17. Iowa calibration of MEPDG performance prediction models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-06-01

    This study aims to improve the accuracy of AASHTO Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG) pavement : performance predictions for Iowa pavement systems through local calibration of MEPDG prediction models. A total of 130 : representative p...

  18. A model for particle acceleration in lower hybrid collapse

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Retterer, J.M.

    1997-01-01

    A model for particle acceleration during the nonlinear collapse of lower hybrid waves is described. Using the Musher-Sturman wave equation to describe the effects of nonlinear processes and a velocity diffusion equation for the particle velocity distribution, the model self-consistently describes the exchange of energy between the fields and the particles in the local plasma. Two-dimensional solutions are presented for the modulational instability of a plane wave and the collapse of a cylindrical wave packet. These calculations were motivated by sounding rocket observations in the vicinity of auroral arcs in the Earth close-quote s ionosphere, which have revealed the existence of large-amplitude lower-hybrid wave packets associated with ions accelerated to energies of 100 eV. The scaling of the sizes of these wave packets is consistent with the theory of lower-hybrid collapse and the observed lower-hybrid field amplitudes are adequate to accelerate the ionospheric ions to the observed energies

  19. Hybrid reduced order modeling for assembly calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bang, Youngsuk; Abdel-Khalik, Hany S.; Jessee, Matthew A.; Mertyurek, Ugur

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Reducing computational cost in engineering calculations. • Reduced order modeling algorithm for multi-physics problem like assembly calculation. • Non-intrusive algorithm with random sampling. • Pattern recognition in the components with high sensitive and large variation. - Abstract: While the accuracy of assembly calculations has considerably improved due to the increase in computer power enabling more refined description of the phase space and use of more sophisticated numerical algorithms, the computational cost continues to increase which limits the full utilization of their effectiveness for routine engineering analysis. Reduced order modeling is a mathematical vehicle that scales down the dimensionality of large-scale numerical problems to enable their repeated executions on small computing environment, often available to end users. This is done by capturing the most dominant underlying relationships between the model's inputs and outputs. Previous works demonstrated the use of the reduced order modeling for a single physics code, such as a radiation transport calculation. This manuscript extends those works to coupled code systems as currently employed in assembly calculations. Numerical tests are conducted using realistic SCALE assembly models with resonance self-shielding, neutron transport, and nuclides transmutation/depletion models representing the components of the coupled code system.

  20. Hybrid reduced order modeling for assembly calculations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bang, Youngsuk, E-mail: ysbang00@fnctech.com [FNC Technology, Co. Ltd., Yongin-si (Korea, Republic of); Abdel-Khalik, Hany S., E-mail: abdelkhalik@purdue.edu [Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN (United States); Jessee, Matthew A., E-mail: jesseema@ornl.gov [Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Mertyurek, Ugur, E-mail: mertyurek@ornl.gov [Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2015-12-15

    Highlights: • Reducing computational cost in engineering calculations. • Reduced order modeling algorithm for multi-physics problem like assembly calculation. • Non-intrusive algorithm with random sampling. • Pattern recognition in the components with high sensitive and large variation. - Abstract: While the accuracy of assembly calculations has considerably improved due to the increase in computer power enabling more refined description of the phase space and use of more sophisticated numerical algorithms, the computational cost continues to increase which limits the full utilization of their effectiveness for routine engineering analysis. Reduced order modeling is a mathematical vehicle that scales down the dimensionality of large-scale numerical problems to enable their repeated executions on small computing environment, often available to end users. This is done by capturing the most dominant underlying relationships between the model's inputs and outputs. Previous works demonstrated the use of the reduced order modeling for a single physics code, such as a radiation transport calculation. This manuscript extends those works to coupled code systems as currently employed in assembly calculations. Numerical tests are conducted using realistic SCALE assembly models with resonance self-shielding, neutron transport, and nuclides transmutation/depletion models representing the components of the coupled code system.

  1. Model complexity control for hydrologic prediction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schoups, G.; Van de Giesen, N.C.; Savenije, H.H.G.

    2008-01-01

    A common concern in hydrologic modeling is overparameterization of complex models given limited and noisy data. This leads to problems of parameter nonuniqueness and equifinality, which may negatively affect prediction uncertainties. A systematic way of controlling model complexity is therefore

  2. Modeling and control of a hybrid-electric vehicle for drivability and fuel economy improvements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koprubasi, Kerem

    The gradual decline of oil reserves and the increasing demand for energy over the past decades has resulted in automotive manufacturers seeking alternative solutions to reduce the dependency on fossil-based fuels for transportation. A viable technology that enables significant improvements in the overall tank-to-wheel vehicle energy conversion efficiencies is the hybridization of electrical and conventional drive systems. Sophisticated hybrid powertrain configurations require careful coordination of the actuators and the onboard energy sources for optimum use of the energy saving benefits. The term optimality is often associated with fuel economy, although other measures such as drivability and exhaust emissions are also equally important. This dissertation focuses on the design of hybrid-electric vehicle (HEV) control strategies that aim to minimize fuel consumption while maintaining good vehicle drivability. In order to facilitate the design of controllers based on mathematical models of the HEV system, a dynamic model that is capable of predicting longitudinal vehicle responses in the low-to-mid frequency region (up to 10 Hz) is developed for a parallel HEV configuration. The model is validated using experimental data from various driving modes including electric only, engine only and hybrid. The high fidelity of the model makes it possible to accurately identify critical drivability issues such as time lags, shunt, shuffle, torque holes and hesitation. Using the information derived from the vehicle model, an energy management strategy is developed and implemented on a test vehicle. The resulting control strategy has a hybrid structure in the sense that the main mode of operation (the hybrid mode) is occasionally interrupted by event-based rules to enable the use of the engine start-stop function. The changes in the driveline dynamics during this transition further contribute to the hybrid nature of the system. To address the unique characteristics of the HEV

  3. Validating predictions from climate envelope models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James I Watling

    Full Text Available Climate envelope models are a potentially important conservation tool, but their ability to accurately forecast species' distributional shifts using independent survey data has not been fully evaluated. We created climate envelope models for 12 species of North American breeding birds previously shown to have experienced poleward range shifts. For each species, we evaluated three different approaches to climate envelope modeling that differed in the way they treated climate-induced range expansion and contraction, using random forests and maximum entropy modeling algorithms. All models were calibrated using occurrence data from 1967-1971 (t1 and evaluated using occurrence data from 1998-2002 (t2. Model sensitivity (the ability to correctly classify species presences was greater using the maximum entropy algorithm than the random forest algorithm. Although sensitivity did not differ significantly among approaches, for many species, sensitivity was maximized using a hybrid approach that assumed range expansion, but not contraction, in t2. Species for which the hybrid approach resulted in the greatest improvement in sensitivity have been reported from more land cover types than species for which there was little difference in sensitivity between hybrid and dynamic approaches, suggesting that habitat generalists may be buffered somewhat against climate-induced range contractions. Specificity (the ability to correctly classify species absences was maximized using the random forest algorithm and was lowest using the hybrid approach. Overall, our results suggest cautious optimism for the use of climate envelope models to forecast range shifts, but also underscore the importance of considering non-climate drivers of species range limits. The use of alternative climate envelope models that make different assumptions about range expansion and contraction is a new and potentially useful way to help inform our understanding of climate change effects on

  4. Validating predictions from climate envelope models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watling, J.; Bucklin, D.; Speroterra, C.; Brandt, L.; Cabal, C.; Romañach, Stephanie S.; Mazzotti, Frank J.

    2013-01-01

    Climate envelope models are a potentially important conservation tool, but their ability to accurately forecast species’ distributional shifts using independent survey data has not been fully evaluated. We created climate envelope models for 12 species of North American breeding birds previously shown to have experienced poleward range shifts. For each species, we evaluated three different approaches to climate envelope modeling that differed in the way they treated climate-induced range expansion and contraction, using random forests and maximum entropy modeling algorithms. All models were calibrated using occurrence data from 1967–1971 (t1) and evaluated using occurrence data from 1998–2002 (t2). Model sensitivity (the ability to correctly classify species presences) was greater using the maximum entropy algorithm than the random forest algorithm. Although sensitivity did not differ significantly among approaches, for many species, sensitivity was maximized using a hybrid approach that assumed range expansion, but not contraction, in t2. Species for which the hybrid approach resulted in the greatest improvement in sensitivity have been reported from more land cover types than species for which there was little difference in sensitivity between hybrid and dynamic approaches, suggesting that habitat generalists may be buffered somewhat against climate-induced range contractions. Specificity (the ability to correctly classify species absences) was maximized using the random forest algorithm and was lowest using the hybrid approach. Overall, our results suggest cautious optimism for the use of climate envelope models to forecast range shifts, but also underscore the importance of considering non-climate drivers of species range limits. The use of alternative climate envelope models that make different assumptions about range expansion and contraction is a new and potentially useful way to help inform our understanding of climate change effects on species.

  5. Hybrid Clustering-GWO-NARX neural network technique in predicting stock price

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Debashish; Safa Sadiq, Ali; Mirjalili, Seyedali; Noraziah, A.

    2017-09-01

    Prediction of stock price is one of the most challenging tasks due to nonlinear nature of the stock data. Though numerous attempts have been made to predict the stock price by applying various techniques, yet the predicted price is not always accurate and even the error rate is high to some extent. Consequently, this paper endeavours to determine an efficient stock prediction strategy by implementing a combinatorial method of Grey Wolf Optimizer (GWO), Clustering and Non Linear Autoregressive Exogenous (NARX) Technique. The study uses stock data from prominent stock market i.e. New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), NASDAQ and emerging stock market i.e. Malaysian Stock Market (Bursa Malaysia), Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE). It applies K-means clustering algorithm to determine the most promising cluster, then MGWO is used to determine the classification rate and finally the stock price is predicted by applying NARX neural network algorithm. The prediction performance gained through experimentation is compared and assessed to guide the investors in making investment decision. The result through this technique is indeed promising as it has shown almost precise prediction and improved error rate. We have applied the hybrid Clustering-GWO-NARX neural network technique in predicting stock price. We intend to work with the effect of various factors in stock price movement and selection of parameters. We will further investigate the influence of company news either positive or negative in stock price movement. We would be also interested to predict the Stock indices.

  6. Prediction of genetic gain from selection indices for disease resistance in papaya hybrids

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcelo Vivas

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available In order to select superior hybrids for the concentration of favorable alleles for resistance to papaya black spot, powdery mildew and phoma spot, 67 hybrids were evaluated in two seasons, in 2007, in a randomized block design with two replications. Genetic gains were estimated from the selection indices of Smith & Hazel, Pesek & Baker, Williams, Mulamba & Mock, with selection intensity of 22.39%, corresponding to 15 hybrids. The index of Mulamba & Mock showed gains more suitable for the five traits assessed when it was used the criterion of economic weight tentatively assigned. Together, severity of black spot on leaves and on fruits, characteristics considered most relevant to the selection of resistant materials, expressed percentage gain of -44.15%. In addition, there were gains for other characteristics, with negative predicted selective percentage gain. The results showed that the index of Mulamba & Mock is the most efficient procedure for simultaneous selection of papaya hybrid resistant to black spot, powdery mildew and phoma spot.

  7. Hybrid reduced order modeling for assembly calculations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bang, Y.; Abdel-Khalik, H. S. [North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC (United States); Jessee, M. A.; Mertyurek, U. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2013-07-01

    While the accuracy of assembly calculations has considerably improved due to the increase in computer power enabling more refined description of the phase space and use of more sophisticated numerical algorithms, the computational cost continues to increase which limits the full utilization of their effectiveness for routine engineering analysis. Reduced order modeling is a mathematical vehicle that scales down the dimensionality of large-scale numerical problems to enable their repeated executions on small computing environment, often available to end users. This is done by capturing the most dominant underlying relationships between the model's inputs and outputs. Previous works demonstrated the use of the reduced order modeling for a single physics code, such as a radiation transport calculation. This manuscript extends those works to coupled code systems as currently employed in assembly calculations. Numerical tests are conducted using realistic SCALE assembly models with resonance self-shielding, neutron transport, and nuclides transmutation/depletion models representing the components of the coupled code system. (authors)

  8. Hybrid neural network bushing model for vehicle dynamics simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sohn, Jeong Hyun; Lee, Seung Kyu; Yoo, Wan Suk

    2008-01-01

    Although the linear model was widely used for the bushing model in vehicle suspension systems, it could not express the nonlinear characteristics of bushing in terms of the amplitude and the frequency. An artificial neural network model was suggested to consider the hysteretic responses of bushings. This model, however, often diverges due to the uncertainties of the neural network under the unexpected excitation inputs. In this paper, a hybrid neural network bushing model combining linear and neural network is suggested. A linear model was employed to represent linear stiffness and damping effects, and the artificial neural network algorithm was adopted to take into account the hysteretic responses. A rubber test was performed to capture bushing characteristics, where sine excitation with different frequencies and amplitudes is applied. Random test results were used to update the weighting factors of the neural network model. It is proven that the proposed model has more robust characteristics than a simple neural network model under step excitation input. A full car simulation was carried out to verify the proposed bushing models. It was shown that the hybrid model results are almost identical to the linear model under several maneuvers

  9. A Toolkit for Building Hybrid, Multi-Resolution PMESII Models

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Bachman, John A; Harper, Karen A

    2007-01-01

    ...) models in support of a Commander's Predictive Environment (CPE) was developed. This development environment is based upon Charles River Analytic's Graphical Agent Development Environment (GRADE...

  10. Nonlinear chaotic model for predicting storm surges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Siek

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper addresses the use of the methods of nonlinear dynamics and chaos theory for building a predictive chaotic model from time series. The chaotic model predictions are made by the adaptive local models based on the dynamical neighbors found in the reconstructed phase space of the observables. We implemented the univariate and multivariate chaotic models with direct and multi-steps prediction techniques and optimized these models using an exhaustive search method. The built models were tested for predicting storm surge dynamics for different stormy conditions in the North Sea, and are compared to neural network models. The results show that the chaotic models can generally provide reliable and accurate short-term storm surge predictions.

  11. The Cheshire Cat principle for hybrid bag models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nielsen, H.B.

    1987-05-01

    The Cheshire Cat point of view where the bag in the chiral bag model has no physical significance, but only a notational one is argued for. It is explained how a fermion - in, say, a 1+1 dimensional exact Cheshire Cat model - escapes the bag by means of an anomaly. The possibility to construct sophisticated hybrid bag models is suggested which use the lack of physical significance of the bag to fix the many parameters so as to anyway give hope of a phenomenologically sensible model. (orig.)

  12. Modelling of a Hybrid Energy System for Autonomous Application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang He

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available A hybrid energy system (HES is a trending power supply solution for autonomous devices. With the help of an accurate system model, the HES development will be efficient and oriented. In spite of various precise unit models, a HES system is hardly developed. This paper proposes a system modelling approach, which applies the power flux conservation as the governing equation and adapts and modifies unit models of solar cells, piezoelectric generators, a Li-ion battery and a super-capacitor. A generalized power harvest, storage and management strategy is also suggested to adapt to various application scenarios.

  13. Staying Power of Churn Prediction Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Risselada, Hans; Verhoef, Peter C.; Bijmolt, Tammo H. A.

    In this paper, we study the staying power of various churn prediction models. Staying power is defined as the predictive performance of a model in a number of periods after the estimation period. We examine two methods, logit models and classification trees, both with and without applying a bagging

  14. Predictive user modeling with actionable attributes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zliobaite, I.; Pechenizkiy, M.

    2013-01-01

    Different machine learning techniques have been proposed and used for modeling individual and group user needs, interests and preferences. In the traditional predictive modeling instances are described by observable variables, called attributes. The goal is to learn a model for predicting the target

  15. Thermal conductivity prediction of nanoscale phononic crystal slabs using a hybrid lattice dynamics-continuum mechanics technique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles M. Reinke

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Recent work has demonstrated that nanostructuring of a semiconductor material to form a phononic crystal (PnC can significantly reduce its thermal conductivity. In this paper, we present a classical method that combines atomic-level information with the application of Bloch theory at the continuum level for the prediction of the thermal conductivity of finite-thickness PnCs with unit cells sized in the micron scale. Lattice dynamics calculations are done at the bulk material level, and the plane-wave expansion method is implemented at the macrosale PnC unit cell level. The combination of the lattice dynamics-based and continuum mechanics-based dispersion information is then used in the Callaway-Holland model to calculate the thermal transport properties of the PnC. We demonstrate that this hybrid approach provides both accurate and efficient predictions of the thermal conductivity.

  16. Spatial prediction of landslides using a hybrid machine learning approach based on Random Subspace and Classification and Regression Trees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pham, Binh Thai; Prakash, Indra; Tien Bui, Dieu

    2018-02-01

    A hybrid machine learning approach of Random Subspace (RSS) and Classification And Regression Trees (CART) is proposed to develop a model named RSSCART for spatial prediction of landslides. This model is a combination of the RSS method which is known as an efficient ensemble technique and the CART which is a state of the art classifier. The Luc Yen district of Yen Bai province, a prominent landslide prone area of Viet Nam, was selected for the model development. Performance of the RSSCART model was evaluated through the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve, statistical analysis methods, and the Chi Square test. Results were compared with other benchmark landslide models namely Support Vector Machines (SVM), single CART, Naïve Bayes Trees (NBT), and Logistic Regression (LR). In the development of model, ten important landslide affecting factors related with geomorphology, geology and geo-environment were considered namely slope angles, elevation, slope aspect, curvature, lithology, distance to faults, distance to rivers, distance to roads, and rainfall. Performance of the RSSCART model (AUC = 0.841) is the best compared with other popular landslide models namely SVM (0.835), single CART (0.822), NBT (0.821), and LR (0.723). These results indicate that performance of the RSSCART is a promising method for spatial landslide prediction.

  17. A hybrid numerical prediction scheme for solar radiation estimation in un-gauged catchments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shamim, M. A.; Bray, M.; Ishak, A. M.; Remesan, R.; Han, D.

    2009-09-01

    The importance of solar radiation on earth's surface is depicted in its wide range of applications in the fields of meteorology, agricultural sciences, engineering, hydrology, crop water requirements, climatic changes and energy assessment. It is quite random in nature as it has to go through different processes of assimilation and dispersion while on its way to earth. Compared to other meteorological parameters, solar radiation is quite infrequently measured, for example, the worldwide ratio of stations collecting solar radiation to those collecting temperature is 1:500 (Badescu, 2008). Researchers, therefore, have to rely on indirect techniques of estimation that include nonlinear models, artificial intelligence (e.g. neural networks), remote sensing and numerical weather predictions (NWP). This study proposes a hybrid numerical prediction scheme for solar radiation estimation in un-gauged catchments. It uses the PSU/NCAR's Mesoscale Modelling system (MM5) (Grell et al., 1995) to parameterise the cloud effect on extraterrestrial radiation by dividing the atmosphere into four layers of very high (6-12 km), high (3-6 km), medium (1.5-3) and low (0-1.5) altitudes from earth. It is believed that various cloud forms exist within each of these layers. An hourly time series of upper air pressure and relative humidity data sets corresponding to all of these layers is determined for the Brue catchment, southwest UK, using MM5. Cloud Index (CI) was then determined using (Yang and Koike, 2002): 1 p?bi [ (Rh - Rh )] ci =------- max 0.0,---------cri dp pbi - ptipti (1- Rhcri) where, pbi and pti represent the air pressure at the top and bottom of each layer and Rhcri is the critical value of relative humidity at which a certain cloud type is formed. Output from a global clear sky solar radiation model (MRM v-5) (Kambezidis and Psiloglu, 2008) is used along with meteorological datasets of temperature and precipitation and astronomical information. The analysis is aided by the

  18. Country Selection Model for Sustainable Construction Businesses Using Hybrid of Objective and Subjective Information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kang-Wook Lee

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available An important issue for international businesses and academia is selecting countries in which to expand in order to achieve entrepreneurial sustainability. This study develops a country selection model for sustainable construction businesses using both objective and subjective information. The objective information consists of 14 variables related to country risk and project performance in 32 countries over 25 years. This hybrid model applies subjective weighting from industrial experts to objective information using a fuzzy LinPreRa-based Analytic Hierarchy Process. The hybrid model yields a more accurate country selection compared to a purely objective information-based model in experienced countries. Interestingly, the hybrid model provides some different predictions with only subjective opinions in unexperienced countries, which implies that expert opinion is not always reliable. In addition, feedback from five experts in top international companies is used to validate the model’s completeness, effectiveness, generality, and applicability. The model is expected to aid decision makers in selecting better candidate countries that lead to sustainable business success.

  19. Hybrid modeling of microbial exopolysaccharide (EPS) production: The case of Enterobacter A47.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marques, Rodolfo; von Stosch, Moritz; Portela, Rui M C; Torres, Cristiana A V; Antunes, Sílvia; Freitas, Filomena; Reis, Maria A M; Oliveira, Rui

    2017-03-20

    Enterobacter A47 is a bacterium that produces high amounts of a fucose-rich exopolysaccharide (EPS) from glycerol residue of the biodiesel industry. The fed-batch process is characterized by complex non-linear dynamics with highly viscous pseudo-plastic rheology due to the accumulation of EPS in the culture medium. In this paper, we study hybrid modeling as a methodology to increase the predictive power of models for EPS production optimization. We compare six hybrid structures that explore different levels of knowledge-based and machine-learning model components. Knowledge-based components consist of macroscopic material balances, Monod type kinetics, cardinal temperature and pH (CTP) dependency and power-law viscosity models. Unknown dependencies are set to be identified by a feedforward artificial neural network (ANN). A semiparametric identification schema is applied resorting to a data set of 13 independent fed-batch experiments. A parsimonious hybrid model was identified that describes the dynamics of the 13 experiments with the same parameterization. The final model is specific to Enterobacter A47 but can be easily extended to other microbial EPS processes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. EFFICIENT PREDICTIVE MODELLING FOR ARCHAEOLOGICAL RESEARCH

    OpenAIRE

    Balla, A.; Pavlogeorgatos, G.; Tsiafakis, D.; Pavlidis, G.

    2014-01-01

    The study presents a general methodology for designing, developing and implementing predictive modelling for identifying areas of archaeological interest. The methodology is based on documented archaeological data and geographical factors, geospatial analysis and predictive modelling, and has been applied to the identification of possible Macedonian tombs’ locations in Northern Greece. The model was tested extensively and the results were validated using a commonly used predictive gain, which...

  1. A hybrid condenser model for real-time applications in performance monitoring, control and optimization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ding Xudong; Cai Wenjian; Jia Lei; Wen Changyun; Zhang Guiqing

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, a simple, yet accurate hybrid modeling technique for condensers is presented. The method starts with fundamental physical principles but captures only few key operational characteristic parameters to predict the system performances. The advantages of the methods lie that linear or non-linear least-squares methods can be directly used to determine no more than four key operational characteristic parameters in the model, which can significantly reduce the computational burden. The developed model is verified with the experimental data taken from a pilot system. The testing results confirm that the proposed model can predict accurately the performance of the real-time operating condenser with the maximum error of less than ±10%. The model technique proposed will have wide applications not only in condenser operating optimization, but also in performance assessment and fault detection and diagnosis.

  2. Simulation-optimization framework for multi-site multi-season hybrid stochastic streamflow modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srivastav, Roshan; Srinivasan, K.; Sudheer, K. P.

    2016-11-01

    able to predict the characteristics of the multi-site multi-season streamflows under uncertain future. Also, the AMHMABB model is found to perform better than the linear multi-site disaggregation model (MDM) in preserving the statistical as well as the multi-site critical deficit run characteristics of the observed flows. However, a major drawback of the hybrid models persists in case of the AMHMABB model as well, of not being able to synthetically generate enough number of flows beyond the observed extreme flows, and not being able to generate values that are quite different from the observed flows.

  3. HYBRID WAYS OF DOING: A MODEL FOR TEACHING PUBLIC SPACE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabrielle Bendiner-Viani

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper addresses an exploratory practice undertaken by the authors in a co-taught class to hybridize theory, research and practice. This experiment in critical transdisciplinary design education took the form of a “critical studio + practice-based seminar on public space”, two interlinked classes co-taught by landscape architect Elliott Maltby and environmental psychologist Gabrielle Bendiner-Viani at the Parsons, The New School for Design. This design process was grounded in the political and social context of the contested East River waterfront of New York City and valued both intensive study (using a range of social science and design methods and a partnership with a local community organization, engaging with the politics, issues and human needs of a complex site. The paper considers how we encouraged interdisciplinary collaboration and dialogue between teachers as well as between liberal arts and design students and developed strategies to overcome preconceived notions of traditional “studio” and “seminar” work. By exploring the challenges and adjustments made during the semester and the process of teaching this class, this paper addresses how we moved from a model of intertwining theory, research and practice, to a hybrid model of multiple ways of doing, a model particularly apt for teaching public space. Through examples developed for and during our course, the paper suggests practical ways of supporting this transdisciplinary hybrid model.

  4. Modelling the solar wind interaction with Mercury by a quasi-neutral hybrid model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Kallio

    2003-11-01

    Full Text Available Quasi-neutral hybrid model is a self-consistent modelling approach that includes positively charged particles and an electron fluid. The approach has received an increasing interest in space plasma physics research because it makes it possible to study several plasma physical processes that are difficult or impossible to model by self-consistent fluid models, such as the effects associated with the ions’ finite gyroradius, the velocity difference between different ion species, or the non-Maxwellian velocity distribution function. By now quasi-neutral hybrid models have been used to study the solar wind interaction with the non-magnetised Solar System bodies of Mars, Venus, Titan and comets. Localized, two-dimensional hybrid model runs have also been made to study terrestrial dayside magnetosheath. However, the Hermean plasma environment has not yet been analysed by a global quasi-neutral hybrid model. In this paper we present a new quasi-neutral hybrid model developed to study various processes associated with the Mercury-solar wind interaction. Emphasis is placed on addressing advantages and disadvantages of the approach to study different plasma physical processes near the planet. The basic assumptions of the approach and the algorithms used in the new model are thoroughly presented. Finally, some of the first three-dimensional hybrid model runs made for Mercury are presented. The resulting macroscopic plasma parameters and the morphology of the magnetic field demonstrate the applicability of the new approach to study the Mercury-solar wind interaction globally. In addition, the real advantage of the kinetic hybrid model approach is to study the property of individual ions, and the study clearly demonstrates the large potential of the approach to address these more detailed issues by a quasi-neutral hybrid model in the future.Key words. Magnetospheric physics (planetary magnetospheres; solar wind-magnetosphere interactions – Space plasma

  5. Modeling level change in Lake Urmia using hybrid artificial intelligence approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esbati, M.; Ahmadieh Khanesar, M.; Shahzadi, Ali

    2017-06-01

    The investigation of water level fluctuations in lakes for protecting them regarding the importance of these water complexes in national and regional scales has found a special place among countries in recent years. The importance of the prediction of water level balance in Lake Urmia is necessary due to several-meter fluctuations in the last decade which help the prevention from possible future losses. For this purpose, in this paper, the performance of adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) for predicting the lake water level balance has been studied. In addition, for the training of the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system, particle swarm optimization (PSO) and hybrid backpropagation-recursive least square method algorithm have been used. Moreover, a hybrid method based on particle swarm optimization and recursive least square (PSO-RLS) training algorithm for the training of ANFIS structure is introduced. In order to have a more fare comparison, hybrid particle swarm optimization and gradient descent are also applied. The models have been trained, tested, and validated based on lake level data between 1991 and 2014. For performance evaluation, a comparison is made between these methods. Numerical results obtained show that the proposed methods with a reasonable error have a good performance in water level balance prediction. It is also clear that with continuing the current trend, Lake Urmia will experience more drop in the water level balance in the upcoming years.

  6. Performance Modeling of Hybrid MPI/OpenMP Scientific Applications on Large-scale Multicore Cluster Systems

    KAUST Repository

    Wu, Xingfu

    2011-08-01

    In this paper, we present a performance modeling framework based on memory bandwidth contention time and a parameterized communication model to predict the performance of OpenMP, MPI and hybrid applications with weak scaling on three large-scale multicore clusters: IBM POWER4, POWER5+ and Blue Gene/P, and analyze the performance of these MPI, OpenMP and hybrid applications. We use STREAM memory benchmarks to provide initial performance analysis and model validation of MPI and OpenMP applications on these multicore clusters because the measured sustained memory bandwidth can provide insight into the memory bandwidth that a system should sustain on scientific applications with the same amount of workload per core. In addition to using these benchmarks, we also use a weak-scaling hybrid MPI/OpenMP large-scale scientific application: Gyro kinetic Toroidal Code in magnetic fusion to validate our performance model of the hybrid application on these multicore clusters. The validation results for our performance modeling method show less than 7.77% error rate in predicting the performance of hybrid MPI/OpenMP GTC on up to 512 cores on these multicore clusters. © 2011 IEEE.

  7. Performance Modeling of Hybrid MPI/OpenMP Scientific Applications on Large-scale Multicore Cluster Systems

    KAUST Repository

    Wu, Xingfu; Taylor, Valerie

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, we present a performance modeling framework based on memory bandwidth contention time and a parameterized communication model to predict the performance of OpenMP, MPI and hybrid applications with weak scaling on three large-scale multicore clusters: IBM POWER4, POWER5+ and Blue Gene/P, and analyze the performance of these MPI, OpenMP and hybrid applications. We use STREAM memory benchmarks to provide initial performance analysis and model validation of MPI and OpenMP applications on these multicore clusters because the measured sustained memory bandwidth can provide insight into the memory bandwidth that a system should sustain on scientific applications with the same amount of workload per core. In addition to using these benchmarks, we also use a weak-scaling hybrid MPI/OpenMP large-scale scientific application: Gyro kinetic Toroidal Code in magnetic fusion to validate our performance model of the hybrid application on these multicore clusters. The validation results for our performance modeling method show less than 7.77% error rate in predicting the performance of hybrid MPI/OpenMP GTC on up to 512 cores on these multicore clusters. © 2011 IEEE.

  8. Properties of hybrid stars in an extended MIT bag model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bao Tmurbagan; Liu Guangzhou; Zhu Mingfeng

    2009-01-01

    The properties of hybrid stars are investigated in the framework of the relativistic mean field theory (RMFT) and an MIT bag model with density-dependent bag constant to describe the hadron phase (HP) and quark phase (QP), respectively. We find that the density-dependent B(ρ) decreases with baryon density ρ; this decrement makes the strange quark matter become more energetically favorable than ever; which makes the threshold densities of the hadron-quark phase transition lower than those of the original bag constant case. In this case, the hyperon degrees of freedom can not be considered. As a result, the equations of state of a star in the mixed phase (MP) become softer whereas those in the QP become stiffer, and the radii of the star obviously decrease. This indicates that the extended MIT bag model is more suitable to describe hybrid stars with small radii. (authors)

  9. Robust predictions of the interacting boson model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Casten, R.F.; Koeln Univ.

    1994-01-01

    While most recognized for its symmetries and algebraic structure, the IBA model has other less-well-known but equally intrinsic properties which give unavoidable, parameter-free predictions. These predictions concern central aspects of low-energy nuclear collective structure. This paper outlines these ''robust'' predictions and compares them with the data

  10. Comparison of Prediction-Error-Modelling Criteria

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, John Bagterp; Jørgensen, Sten Bay

    2007-01-01

    Single and multi-step prediction-error-methods based on the maximum likelihood and least squares criteria are compared. The prediction-error methods studied are based on predictions using the Kalman filter and Kalman predictors for a linear discrete-time stochastic state space model, which is a r...

  11. A light neutralino in hybrid models of supersymmetry breaking

    CERN Document Server

    Dudas, Emilian; Parmentier, Jeanne; 10.1016

    2008-01-01

    We show that in gauge mediation models where heavy messenger masses are provided by the adjoint Higgs field of an underlying SU(5) theory, a generalized gauge mediation spectrum arises with the characteristic feature of having a neutralino much lighter than in the standard gauge or gravity mediation schemes. This naturally fits in a hybrid scenario where gravity mediation, while subdominant with respect to gauge mediation, provides mu and B mu parameters in the TeV range.

  12. A Novel of Hybrid Maintenance Management Models for Industrial Applications

    OpenAIRE

    Tahir, Zulkifli

    2010-01-01

    It is observed through empirical studies that the effectiveness of industrial process have been increased by a well organized of machines maintenance structure. In current research, a novel of maintenance concept has been designed by hybrid several maintenance management models with Decision Making Grid (DMG), Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Fuzzy Logic. The concept is designed for maintenance personnel to evaluate and benchmark the maintenance operations and to reveal important maintena...

  13. A light neutralino in hybrid models of supersymmetry breaking

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dudas, Emilian; Lavignac, Stephane; Parmentier, Jeanne

    2009-01-01

    We show that in gauge mediation models where heavy messenger masses are provided by the adjoint Higgs field of an underlying SU(5) theory, a generalized gauge mediation spectrum arises with the characteristic feature of having a neutralino LSP much lighter than in the standard gauge or gravity mediation schemes. This naturally fits in a hybrid scenario where gravity mediation, while subdominant with respect to gauge mediation, provides μ and Bμ parameters of the appropriate size for electroweak symmetry breaking

  14. Hybrid Model for e-Learning Quality Evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suzana M. Savic

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available E-learning is becoming increasingly important for the competitive advantage of economic organizations and higher education institutions. Therefore, it is becoming a significant aspect of quality which has to be integrated into the management system of every organization or institution. The paper examines e-learning quality characteristics, standards, criteria and indicators and presents a multi-criteria hybrid model for e-learning quality evaluation based on the method of Analytic Hierarchy Process, trend analysis, and data comparison.

  15. Hybrid Speaker Recognition Using Universal Acoustic Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nishimura, Jun; Kuroda, Tadahiro

    We propose a novel speaker recognition approach using a speaker-independent universal acoustic model (UAM) for sensornet applications. In sensornet applications such as “Business Microscope”, interactions among knowledge workers in an organization can be visualized by sensing face-to-face communication using wearable sensor nodes. In conventional studies, speakers are detected by comparing energy of input speech signals among the nodes. However, there are often synchronization errors among the nodes which degrade the speaker recognition performance. By focusing on property of the speaker's acoustic channel, UAM can provide robustness against the synchronization error. The overall speaker recognition accuracy is improved by combining UAM with the energy-based approach. For 0.1s speech inputs and 4 subjects, speaker recognition accuracy of 94% is achieved at the synchronization error less than 100ms.

  16. Stochastic linear hybrid systems: Modeling, estimation, and application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seah, Chze Eng

    Hybrid systems are dynamical systems which have interacting continuous state and discrete state (or mode). Accurate modeling and state estimation of hybrid systems are important in many applications. We propose a hybrid system model, known as the Stochastic Linear Hybrid System (SLHS), to describe hybrid systems with stochastic linear system dynamics in each mode and stochastic continuous-state-dependent mode transitions. We then develop a hybrid estimation algorithm, called the State-Dependent-Transition Hybrid Estimation (SDTHE) algorithm, to estimate the continuous state and discrete state of the SLHS from noisy measurements. It is shown that the SDTHE algorithm is more accurate or more computationally efficient than existing hybrid estimation algorithms. Next, we develop a performance analysis algorithm to evaluate the performance of the SDTHE algorithm in a given operating scenario. We also investigate sufficient conditions for the stability of the SDTHE algorithm. The proposed SLHS model and SDTHE algorithm are illustrated to be useful in several applications. In Air Traffic Control (ATC), to facilitate implementations of new efficient operational concepts, accurate modeling and estimation of aircraft trajectories are needed. In ATC, an aircraft's trajectory can be divided into a number of flight modes. Furthermore, as the aircraft is required to follow a given flight plan or clearance, its flight mode transitions are dependent of its continuous state. However, the flight mode transitions are also stochastic due to navigation uncertainties or unknown pilot intents. Thus, we develop an aircraft dynamics model in ATC based on the SLHS. The SDTHE algorithm is then used in aircraft tracking applications to estimate the positions/velocities of aircraft and their flight modes accurately. Next, we develop an aircraft conformance monitoring algorithm to detect any deviations of aircraft trajectories in ATC that might compromise safety. In this application, the SLHS

  17. Hybrid forecasting of chaotic processes: Using machine learning in conjunction with a knowledge-based model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pathak, Jaideep; Wikner, Alexander; Fussell, Rebeckah; Chandra, Sarthak; Hunt, Brian R.; Girvan, Michelle; Ott, Edward

    2018-04-01

    A model-based approach to forecasting chaotic dynamical systems utilizes knowledge of the mechanistic processes governing the dynamics to build an approximate mathematical model of the system. In contrast, machine learning techniques have demonstrated promising results for forecasting chaotic systems purely from past time series measurements of system state variables (training data), without prior knowledge of the system dynamics. The motivation for this paper is the potential of machine learning for filling in the gaps in our underlying mechanistic knowledge that cause widely-used knowledge-based models to be inaccurate. Thus, we here propose a general method that leverages the advantages of these two approaches by combining a knowledge-based model and a machine learning technique to build a hybrid forecasting scheme. Potential applications for such an approach are numerous (e.g., improving weather forecasting). We demonstrate and test the utility of this approach using a particular illustrative version of a machine learning known as reservoir computing, and we apply the resulting hybrid forecaster to a low-dimensional chaotic system, as well as to a high-dimensional spatiotemporal chaotic system. These tests yield extremely promising results in that our hybrid technique is able to accurately predict for a much longer period of time than either its machine-learning component or its model-based component alone.

  18. The Cheshire Cat principle applied to hybrid bag models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nielsen, H.B.; Wirzba, A.

    1987-05-01

    Here is argued for the Cheshire Cat point of view according to which the bag (itself) has only notational, but no physical significance. It is explained in a 1+1 dimensional exact Cheshire Cat model how a fermion can escape from the bag by means of an anomaly. We also suggest that suitably constructed hybrid bag models may be used to fix such parameters of effective Lagrangians that can otherwise be obtained from experiments only. This idea is illustrated in a calculation of the mass of the pseudoscalar η' meson in 1+1 dimension. Thus there is hope to find a construction principle for a phenomenologically sensible model. (orig.)

  19. Hybrid model for the decay of nuclear giant resonances

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hussein, M.S.

    1986-12-01

    The decay properties of nuclear giant multipole resonances are discussed within a hybrid model that incorporates, in a unitary consistent way, both the coherent and statistical features. It is suggested that the 'direct' decay of the GR is described with continuum first RPA and the statistical decay calculated with a modified Hauser-Feshbach model. Application is made to the decay of the giant monopole resonance in 208 Pb. Suggestions are made concerning the calculation of the mixing parameter using the statistical properties of the shell model eigenstates at high excitation energies. (Author) [pt

  20. Treatment of early and late reflections in a hybrid computer model for room acoustics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Naylor, Graham

    1992-01-01

    The ODEON computer model for acoustics in large rooms is intended for use both in design (by predicting room acoustical indices quickly and easily) and in research (by forming the basis of an auralization system and allowing study of various room acoustical phenomena). These conflicting demands...... preclude the use of both ``pure'' image source and ``pure'' particle tracing methods. A hybrid model has been developed, in which rays discover potential image sources up to a specified order. Thereafter, the same ray tracing process is used in a different way to rapidly generate a dense reverberant decay...

  1. Hybrid neural network for density limit disruption prediction and avoidance on J-TEXT tokamak

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, W.; Hu, F. R.; Zhang, M.; Chen, Z. Y.; Zhao, X. Q.; Wang, X. L.; Shi, P.; Zhang, X. L.; Zhang, X. Q.; Zhou, Y. N.; Wei, Y. N.; Pan, Y.; J-TEXT team

    2018-05-01

    Increasing the plasma density is one of the key methods in achieving an efficient fusion reaction. High-density operation is one of the hot topics in tokamak plasmas. Density limit disruptions remain an important issue for safe operation. An effective density limit disruption prediction and avoidance system is the key to avoid density limit disruptions for long pulse steady state operations. An artificial neural network has been developed for the prediction of density limit disruptions on the J-TEXT tokamak. The neural network has been improved from a simple multi-layer design to a hybrid two-stage structure. The first stage is a custom network which uses time series diagnostics as inputs to predict plasma density, and the second stage is a three-layer feedforward neural network to predict the probability of density limit disruptions. It is found that hybrid neural network structure, combined with radiation profile information as an input can significantly improve the prediction performance, especially the average warning time ({{T}warn} ). In particular, the {{T}warn} is eight times better than that in previous work (Wang et al 2016 Plasma Phys. Control. Fusion 58 055014) (from 5 ms to 40 ms). The success rate for density limit disruptive shots is above 90%, while, the false alarm rate for other shots is below 10%. Based on the density limit disruption prediction system and the real-time density feedback control system, the on-line density limit disruption avoidance system has been implemented on the J-TEXT tokamak.

  2. Extracting falsifiable predictions from sloppy models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutenkunst, Ryan N; Casey, Fergal P; Waterfall, Joshua J; Myers, Christopher R; Sethna, James P

    2007-12-01

    Successful predictions are among the most compelling validations of any model. Extracting falsifiable predictions from nonlinear multiparameter models is complicated by the fact that such models are commonly sloppy, possessing sensitivities to different parameter combinations that range over many decades. Here we discuss how sloppiness affects the sorts of data that best constrain model predictions, makes linear uncertainty approximations dangerous, and introduces computational difficulties in Monte-Carlo uncertainty analysis. We also present a useful test problem and suggest refinements to the standards by which models are communicated.

  3. The prediction of epidemics through mathematical modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaus, Catherine

    2014-01-01

    Mathematical models may be resorted to in an endeavor to predict the development of epidemics. The SIR model is one of the applications. Still too approximate, the use of statistics awaits more data in order to come closer to reality.

  4. Calibration of PMIS pavement performance prediction models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-02-01

    Improve the accuracy of TxDOTs existing pavement performance prediction models through calibrating these models using actual field data obtained from the Pavement Management Information System (PMIS). : Ensure logical performance superiority patte...

  5. Evaluating Predictive Uncertainty of Hyporheic Exchange Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chow, R.; Bennett, J.; Dugge, J.; Wöhling, T.; Nowak, W.

    2017-12-01

    Hyporheic exchange is the interaction of water between rivers and groundwater, and is difficult to predict. One of the largest contributions to predictive uncertainty for hyporheic fluxes have been attributed to the representation of heterogeneous subsurface properties. This research aims to evaluate which aspect of the subsurface representation - the spatial distribution of hydrofacies or the model for local-scale (within-facies) heterogeneity - most influences the predictive uncertainty. Also, we seek to identify data types that help reduce this uncertainty best. For this investigation, we conduct a modelling study of the Steinlach River meander, in Southwest Germany. The Steinlach River meander is an experimental site established in 2010 to monitor hyporheic exchange at the meander scale. We use HydroGeoSphere, a fully integrated surface water-groundwater model, to model hyporheic exchange and to assess the predictive uncertainty of hyporheic exchange transit times (HETT). A highly parameterized complex model is built and treated as `virtual reality', which is in turn modelled with simpler subsurface parameterization schemes (Figure). Then, we conduct Monte-Carlo simulations with these models to estimate the predictive uncertainty. Results indicate that: Uncertainty in HETT is relatively small for early times and increases with transit times. Uncertainty from local-scale heterogeneity is negligible compared to uncertainty in the hydrofacies distribution. Introducing more data to a poor model structure may reduce predictive variance, but does not reduce predictive bias. Hydraulic head observations alone cannot constrain the uncertainty of HETT, however an estimate of hyporheic exchange flux proves to be more effective at reducing this uncertainty. Figure: Approach for evaluating predictive model uncertainty. A conceptual model is first developed from the field investigations. A complex model (`virtual reality') is then developed based on that conceptual model

  6. Scalability of Sustainable Business Models in Hybrid Organizations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam Jabłoński

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The dynamics of change in modern business create new mechanisms for company management to determine their pursuit and the achievement of their high performance. This performance maintained over a long period of time becomes a source of ensuring business continuity by companies. An ontological being enabling the adoption of such assumptions is such a business model that has the ability to generate results in every possible market situation and, moreover, it has the features of permanent adaptability. A feature that describes the adaptability of the business model is its scalability. Being a factor ensuring more work and more efficient work with an increasing number of components, scalability can be applied to the concept of business models as the company’s ability to maintain similar or higher performance through it. Ensuring the company’s performance in the long term helps to build the so-called sustainable business model that often balances the objectives of stakeholders and shareholders, and that is created by the implemented principles of value-based management and corporate social responsibility. This perception of business paves the way for building hybrid organizations that integrate business activities with pro-social ones. The combination of an approach typical of hybrid organizations in designing and implementing sustainable business models pursuant to the scalability criterion seems interesting from the cognitive point of view. Today, hybrid organizations are great spaces for building effective and efficient mechanisms for dialogue between business and society. This requires the appropriate business model. The purpose of the paper is to present the conceptualization and operationalization of scalability of sustainable business models that determine the performance of a hybrid organization in the network environment. The paper presents the original concept of applying scalability in sustainable business models with detailed

  7. Case studies in archaeological predictive modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verhagen, Jacobus Wilhelmus Hermanus Philippus

    2007-01-01

    In this thesis, a collection of papers is put together dealing with various quantitative aspects of predictive modelling and archaeological prospection. Among the issues covered are the effects of survey bias on the archaeological data used for predictive modelling, and the complexities of testing

  8. Clinical Prediction Models for Cardiovascular Disease: Tufts Predictive Analytics and Comparative Effectiveness Clinical Prediction Model Database.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wessler, Benjamin S; Lai Yh, Lana; Kramer, Whitney; Cangelosi, Michael; Raman, Gowri; Lutz, Jennifer S; Kent, David M

    2015-07-01

    Clinical prediction models (CPMs) estimate the probability of clinical outcomes and hold the potential to improve decision making and individualize care. For patients with cardiovascular disease, there are numerous CPMs available although the extent of this literature is not well described. We conducted a systematic review for articles containing CPMs for cardiovascular disease published between January 1990 and May 2012. Cardiovascular disease includes coronary heart disease, heart failure, arrhythmias, stroke, venous thromboembolism, and peripheral vascular disease. We created a novel database and characterized CPMs based on the stage of development, population under study, performance, covariates, and predicted outcomes. There are 796 models included in this database. The number of CPMs published each year is increasing steadily over time. Seven hundred seventeen (90%) are de novo CPMs, 21 (3%) are CPM recalibrations, and 58 (7%) are CPM adaptations. This database contains CPMs for 31 index conditions, including 215 CPMs for patients with coronary artery disease, 168 CPMs for population samples, and 79 models for patients with heart failure. There are 77 distinct index/outcome pairings. Of the de novo models in this database, 450 (63%) report a c-statistic and 259 (36%) report some information on calibration. There is an abundance of CPMs available for a wide assortment of cardiovascular disease conditions, with substantial redundancy in the literature. The comparative performance of these models, the consistency of effects and risk estimates across models and the actual and potential clinical impact of this body of literature is poorly understood. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

  9. A hybrid SEA/modal technique for modeling structural-acoustic interior noise in rotorcraft.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jayachandran, V; Bonilha, M W

    2003-03-01

    This paper describes a hybrid technique that combines Statistical Energy Analysis (SEA) predictions for structural vibration with acoustic modal summation techniques to predict interior noise levels in rotorcraft. The method was applied for predicting the sound field inside a mock-up of the interior panel system of the Sikorsky S-92 helicopter. The vibration amplitudes of the frame and panel systems were predicted using a detailed SEA model and these were used as inputs to the model of the interior acoustic space. The spatial distribution of the vibration field on individual panels, and their coupling to the acoustic space were modeled using stochastic techniques. Leakage and nonresonant transmission components were accounted for using space-averaged values obtained from a SEA model of the complete structural-acoustic system. Since the cabin geometry was quite simple, the modeling of the interior acoustic space was performed using a standard modal summation technique. Sound pressure levels predicted by this approach at specific microphone locations were compared with measured data. Agreement within 3 dB in one-third octave bands above 40 Hz was observed. A large discrepancy in the one-third octave band in which the first acoustic mode is resonant (31.5 Hz) was observed. Reasons for such a discrepancy are discussed in the paper. The developed technique provides a method for modeling helicopter cabin interior noise in the frequency mid-range where neither FEA nor SEA is individually effective or accurate.

  10. Modelling and control of a light-duty hybrid electric truck

    OpenAIRE

    Park, Jong-Kyu

    2006-01-01

    This study is concentrated on modelling and developing the controller for the light-duty hybrid electric truck. The hybrid electric vehicle has advantages in fuel economy. However, there have been relatively few studies on commercial HEVs, whilst a considerable number of studies on the hybrid electric system have been conducted in the field of passenger cars. So the current status and the methodologies to develop the LD hybrid electric truck model have been studied through the ...

  11. Maximum Mass of Hybrid Stars in the Quark Bag Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alaverdyan, G. B.; Vartanyan, Yu. L.

    2017-12-01

    The effect of model parameters in the equation of state for quark matter on the magnitude of the maximum mass of hybrid stars is examined. Quark matter is described in terms of the extended MIT bag model including corrections for one-gluon exchange. For nucleon matter in the range of densities corresponding to the phase transition, a relativistic equation of state is used that is calculated with two-particle correlations taken into account based on using the Bonn meson-exchange potential. The Maxwell construction is used to calculate the characteristics of the first order phase transition and it is shown that for a fixed value of the strong interaction constant αs, the baryon concentrations of the coexisting phases grow monotonically as the bag constant B increases. It is shown that for a fixed value of the strong interaction constant αs, the maximum mass of a hybrid star increases as the bag constant B decreases. For a given value of the bag parameter B, the maximum mass rises as the strong interaction constant αs increases. It is shown that the configurations of hybrid stars with maximum masses equal to or exceeding the mass of the currently known most massive pulsar are possible for values of the strong interaction constant αs > 0.6 and sufficiently low values of the bag constant.

  12. MODEL APLIKASI FIKIH MUAMALAH PADA FORMULASI HYBRID CONTRACT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Murtadho

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Modern literatures of fiqh mu’āmalah talk alot about various contract formulation with capability of maximizing profit in shariah finance industry. This new contract modification is the synthesis among existing contracts which is formulated in such a way to be an integrated contract. This formulation is known as a hybrid contract or multicontract (al-'uqūd al-murakkabah. Some of them are, bay' bi thaman 'ājil, Ijārah muntahiyah bi ’l-tamlīk dan mushārakah mutanāqiṣah. This study intends to further describe models of hybrid contract, and explore the shari'ah principles in modern financial institutions. This study found a potential shift from the ideal values of the spirit of shari'ah into the spirit of competition based shari'ah formally.

  13. The Weighted Support Vector Machine Based on Hybrid Swarm Intelligence Optimization for Icing Prediction of Transmission Line

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaomin Xu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Not only can the icing coat on transmission line cause the electrical fault of gap discharge and icing flashover but also it will lead to the mechanical failure of tower, conductor, insulators, and others. It will bring great harm to the people’s daily life and work. Thus, accurate prediction of ice thickness has important significance for power department to control the ice disaster effectively. Based on the analysis of standard support vector machine, this paper presents a weighted support vector machine regression model based on the similarity (WSVR. According to the different importance of samples, this paper introduces the weighted support vector machine and optimizes its parameters by hybrid swarm intelligence optimization algorithm with the particle swarm and ant colony (PSO-ACO, which improves the generalization ability of the model. In the case study, the actual data of ice thickness and climate in a certain area of Hunan province have been used to predict the icing thickness of the area, which verifies the validity and applicability of this proposed method. The predicted results show that the intelligent model proposed in this paper has higher precision and stronger generalization ability.

  14. Finite element modeling of reinforced concrete beams with a hybrid combination of steel and aramid reinforcement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hawileh, R.A.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Modeling of concrete beams reinforced steel and FRP bars. • Developed finite element models achieved good results. • The models are validated via comparison with experimental results. • Parametric studies are performed. - Abstract: Corrosion of steel bars has an adverse effect on the life-span of reinforced concrete (RC) members and is usually associated with crack development in RC beams. Fiber reinforced polymer (FRP) bars have been recently used to reinforce concrete members in flexure due to their high tensile strength and superior corrosion resistance properties. However, FRP materials are brittle in nature, thus RC beams reinforced with such materials would exhibit a less ductile behavior when compared to similar members reinforced with conventional steel reinforcement. Recently, researchers investigated the performance of concrete beams reinforced with a hybrid combination of steel and Aramid Fiber Reinforced Polymer (AFRP) reinforcement to maintain a reasonable level of ductility in such members. The function of the AFRP bars is to increase the load-carrying capacity, while the function of the steel bars is to ensure ductility of the flexural member upon yielding in tension. This paper presents a three-dimensional (3D) finite element (FE) model that predicted the load versus mid-span deflection response of tested RC beams conducted by other researchers with a hybrid combination of steel and AFRP bars. The developed FE models account for the constituent material nonlinearities and bond–slip behavior between the reinforcing bars and adjacent concrete surfaces. It was concluded that the developed models can accurately capture the behavior and predicts the load-carrying capacity of such RC members. In addition, a parametric study is conducted using the validated models to investigate the effect of AFRP bar size, FRP material type, bond–slip action, and concrete compressive strength on the performance of concrete beams when reinforced

  15. Artificial Neural Network and Genetic Algorithm Hybrid Intelligence for Predicting Thai Stock Price Index Trend

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Montri Inthachot

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This study investigated the use of Artificial Neural Network (ANN and Genetic Algorithm (GA for prediction of Thailand’s SET50 index trend. ANN is a widely accepted machine learning method that uses past data to predict future trend, while GA is an algorithm that can find better subsets of input variables for importing into ANN, hence enabling more accurate prediction by its efficient feature selection. The imported data were chosen technical indicators highly regarded by stock analysts, each represented by 4 input variables that were based on past time spans of 4 different lengths: 3-, 5-, 10-, and 15-day spans before the day of prediction. This import undertaking generated a big set of diverse input variables with an exponentially higher number of possible subsets that GA culled down to a manageable number of more effective ones. SET50 index data of the past 6 years, from 2009 to 2014, were used to evaluate this hybrid intelligence prediction accuracy, and the hybrid’s prediction results were found to be more accurate than those made by a method using only one input variable for one fixed length of past time span.

  16. Optimization of arterial age prediction models based in pulse wave

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scandurra, A G [Bioengineering Laboratory, Electronic Department, Mar del Plata University (Argentina); Meschino, G J [Bioengineering Laboratory, Electronic Department, Mar del Plata University (Argentina); Passoni, L I [Bioengineering Laboratory, Electronic Department, Mar del Plata University (Argentina); Dai Pra, A L [Engineering Aplied Artificial Intelligence Group, Mathematics Department, Mar del Plata University (Argentina); Introzzi, A R [Bioengineering Laboratory, Electronic Department, Mar del Plata University (Argentina); Clara, F M [Bioengineering Laboratory, Electronic Department, Mar del Plata University (Argentina)

    2007-11-15

    We propose the detection of early arterial ageing through a prediction model of arterial age based in the coherence assumption between the pulse wave morphology and the patient's chronological age. Whereas we evaluate several methods, a Sugeno fuzzy inference system is selected. Models optimization is approached using hybrid methods: parameter adaptation with Artificial Neural Networks and Genetic Algorithms. Features selection was performed according with their projection on main factors of the Principal Components Analysis. The model performance was tested using the bootstrap error type .632E. The model presented an error smaller than 8.5%. This result encourages including this process as a diagnosis module into the device for pulse analysis that has been developed by the Bioengineering Laboratory staff.

  17. Optimization of arterial age prediction models based in pulse wave

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scandurra, A G; Meschino, G J; Passoni, L I; Dai Pra, A L; Introzzi, A R; Clara, F M

    2007-01-01

    We propose the detection of early arterial ageing through a prediction model of arterial age based in the coherence assumption between the pulse wave morphology and the patient's chronological age. Whereas we evaluate several methods, a Sugeno fuzzy inference system is selected. Models optimization is approached using hybrid methods: parameter adaptation with Artificial Neural Networks and Genetic Algorithms. Features selection was performed according with their projection on main factors of the Principal Components Analysis. The model performance was tested using the bootstrap error type .632E. The model presented an error smaller than 8.5%. This result encourages including this process as a diagnosis module into the device for pulse analysis that has been developed by the Bioengineering Laboratory staff

  18. Incorporating uncertainty in predictive species distribution modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beale, Colin M; Lennon, Jack J

    2012-01-19

    Motivated by the need to solve ecological problems (climate change, habitat fragmentation and biological invasions), there has been increasing interest in species distribution models (SDMs). Predictions from these models inform conservation policy, invasive species management and disease-control measures. However, predictions are subject to uncertainty, the degree and source of which is often unrecognized. Here, we review the SDM literature in the context of uncertainty, focusing on three main classes of SDM: niche-based models, demographic models and process-based models. We identify sources of uncertainty for each class and discuss how uncertainty can be minimized or included in the modelling process to give realistic measures of confidence around predictions. Because this has typically not been performed, we conclude that uncertainty in SDMs has often been underestimated and a false precision assigned to predictions of geographical distribution. We identify areas where development of new statistical tools will improve predictions from distribution models, notably the development of hierarchical models that link different types of distribution model and their attendant uncertainties across spatial scales. Finally, we discuss the need to develop more defensible methods for assessing predictive performance, quantifying model goodness-of-fit and for assessing the significance of model covariates.

  19. Protein loop modeling using a new hybrid energy function and its application to modeling in inaccurate structural environments.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hahnbeom Park

    Full Text Available Protein loop modeling is a tool for predicting protein local structures of particular interest, providing opportunities for applications involving protein structure prediction and de novo protein design. Until recently, the majority of loop modeling methods have been developed and tested by reconstructing loops in frameworks of experimentally resolved structures. In many practical applications, however, the protein loops to be modeled are located in inaccurate structural environments. These include loops in model structures, low-resolution experimental structures, or experimental structures of different functional forms. Accordingly, discrepancies in the accuracy of the structural environment assumed in development of the method and that in practical applications present additional challenges to modern loop modeling methods. This study demonstrates a new strategy for employing a hybrid energy function combining physics-based and knowledge-based components to help tackle this challenge. The hybrid energy function is designed to combine the strengths of each energy component, simultaneously maintaining accurate loop structure prediction in a high-resolution framework structure and tolerating minor environmental errors in low-resolution structures. A loop modeling method based on global optimization of this new energy function is tested on loop targets situated in different levels of environmental errors, ranging from experimental structures to structures perturbed in backbone as well as side chains and template-based model structures. The new method performs comparably to force field-based approaches in loop reconstruction in crystal structures and better in loop prediction in inaccurate framework structures. This result suggests that higher-accuracy predictions would be possible for a broader range of applications. The web server for this method is available at http://galaxy.seoklab.org/loop with the PS2 option for the scoring function.

  20. Model Predictive Control for Smart Energy Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halvgaard, Rasmus

    pumps, heat tanks, electrical vehicle battery charging/discharging, wind farms, power plants). 2.Embed forecasting methodologies for the weather (e.g. temperature, solar radiation), the electricity consumption, and the electricity price in a predictive control system. 3.Develop optimization algorithms....... Chapter 3 introduces Model Predictive Control (MPC) including state estimation, filtering and prediction for linear models. Chapter 4 simulates the models from Chapter 2 with the certainty equivalent MPC from Chapter 3. An economic MPC minimizes the costs of consumption based on real electricity prices...... that determined the flexibility of the units. A predictive control system easily handles constraints, e.g. limitations in power consumption, and predicts the future behavior of a unit by integrating predictions of electricity prices, consumption, and weather variables. The simulations demonstrate the expected...

  1. A Simple Hybrid Model for Short-Term Load Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suseelatha Annamareddi

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper proposes a simple hybrid model to forecast the electrical load data based on the wavelet transform technique and double exponential smoothing. The historical noisy load series data is decomposed into deterministic and fluctuation components using suitable wavelet coefficient thresholds and wavelet reconstruction method. The variation characteristics of the resulting series are analyzed to arrive at reasonable thresholds that yield good denoising results. The constitutive series are then forecasted using appropriate exponential adaptive smoothing models. A case study performed on California energy market data demonstrates that the proposed method can offer high forecasting precision for very short-term forecasts, considering a time horizon of two weeks.

  2. Calibrated and Interactive Modelling of Form-Active Hybrid Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Quinn, Gregory; Holden Deleuran, Anders; Piker, Daniel

    2016-01-01

    Form-active hybrid structures (FAHS) couple two or more different structural elements of low self weight and low or negligible bending flexural stiffness (such as slender beams, cables and membranes) into one structural assembly of high global stiffness. They offer high load-bearing capacity...... software packages which introduce interruptions and data exchange issues in the modelling pipeline. The mechanical precision, stability and open software architecture of Kangaroo has facilitated the development of proof-of-concept modelling pipelines which tackle this challenge and enable powerful...... materially-informed sketching. Making use of a projection-based dynamic relaxation solver for structural analysis, explorative design has proven to be highly effective....

  3. Evaluating the Predictive Value of Growth Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, Daniel L.; Gaertner, Matthew N.

    2014-01-01

    This study evaluates four growth prediction models--projection, student growth percentile, trajectory, and transition table--commonly used to forecast (and give schools credit for) middle school students' future proficiency. Analyses focused on vertically scaled summative mathematics assessments, and two performance standards conditions (high…

  4. Ground Motion Prediction Model Using Artificial Neural Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dhanya, J.; Raghukanth, S. T. G.

    2018-03-01

    This article focuses on developing a ground motion prediction equation based on artificial neural network (ANN) technique for shallow crustal earthquakes. A hybrid technique combining genetic algorithm and Levenberg-Marquardt technique is used for training the model. The present model is developed to predict peak ground velocity, and 5% damped spectral acceleration. The input parameters for the prediction are moment magnitude ( M w), closest distance to rupture plane ( R rup), shear wave velocity in the region ( V s30) and focal mechanism ( F). A total of 13,552 ground motion records from 288 earthquakes provided by the updated NGA-West2 database released by Pacific Engineering Research Center are utilized to develop the model. The ANN architecture considered for the model consists of 192 unknowns including weights and biases of all the interconnected nodes. The performance of the model is observed to be within the prescribed error limits. In addition, the results from the study are found to be comparable with the existing relations in the global database. The developed model is further demonstrated by estimating site-specific response spectra for Shimla city located in Himalayan region.

  5. Hybrid Modeling of Intra-DCT Coefficients for Real-Time Video Encoding

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Jin

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The two-dimensional discrete cosine transform (2-D DCT and its subsequent quantization are widely used in standard video encoders. However, since most DCT coefficients become zeros after quantization, a number of redundant computations are performed. This paper proposes a hybrid statistical model used to predict the zeroquantized DCT (ZQDCT coefficients for intratransform and to achieve better real-time performance. First, each pixel block at the input of DCT is decomposed into a series of mean values and a residual block. Subsequently, a statistical model based on Gaussian distribution is used to predict the ZQDCT coefficients of the residual block. Then, a sufficient condition under which each quantized coefficient becomes zero is derived from the mean values. Finally, a hybrid model to speed up the DCT and quantization calculations is proposed. Experimental results show that the proposed model can reduce more redundant computations and achieve better real-time performance than the reference in the literature at the cost of negligible video quality degradation. Experiments also show that the proposed model significantly reduces multiplications for DCT and quantization. This is particularly suitable for processors in portable devices where multiplications consume more power than additions. Computational reduction implies longer battery lifetime and energy economy.

  6. Model predictive control classical, robust and stochastic

    CERN Document Server

    Kouvaritakis, Basil

    2016-01-01

    For the first time, a textbook that brings together classical predictive control with treatment of up-to-date robust and stochastic techniques. Model Predictive Control describes the development of tractable algorithms for uncertain, stochastic, constrained systems. The starting point is classical predictive control and the appropriate formulation of performance objectives and constraints to provide guarantees of closed-loop stability and performance. Moving on to robust predictive control, the text explains how similar guarantees may be obtained for cases in which the model describing the system dynamics is subject to additive disturbances and parametric uncertainties. Open- and closed-loop optimization are considered and the state of the art in computationally tractable methods based on uncertainty tubes presented for systems with additive model uncertainty. Finally, the tube framework is also applied to model predictive control problems involving hard or probabilistic constraints for the cases of multiplic...

  7. Modeling, robust and distributed model predictive control for freeway networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Liu, S.

    2016-01-01

    In Model Predictive Control (MPC) for traffic networks, traffic models are crucial since they are used as prediction models for determining the optimal control actions. In order to reduce the computational complexity of MPC for traffic networks, macroscopic traffic models are often used instead of

  8. Hybrid Adaptive Flight Control with Model Inversion Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Nhan

    2011-01-01

    This study investigates a hybrid adaptive flight control method as a design possibility for a flight control system that can enable an effective adaptation strategy to deal with off-nominal flight conditions. The hybrid adaptive control blends both direct and indirect adaptive control in a model inversion flight control architecture. The blending of both direct and indirect adaptive control provides a much more flexible and effective adaptive flight control architecture than that with either direct or indirect adaptive control alone. The indirect adaptive control is used to update the model inversion controller by an on-line parameter estimation of uncertain plant dynamics based on two methods. The first parameter estimation method is an indirect adaptive law based on the Lyapunov theory, and the second method is a recursive least-squares indirect adaptive law. The model inversion controller is therefore made to adapt to changes in the plant dynamics due to uncertainty. As a result, the modeling error is reduced that directly leads to a decrease in the tracking error. In conjunction with the indirect adaptive control that updates the model inversion controller, a direct adaptive control is implemented as an augmented command to further reduce any residual tracking error that is not entirely eliminated by the indirect adaptive control.

  9. Deep Predictive Models in Interactive Music

    OpenAIRE

    Martin, Charles P.; Ellefsen, Kai Olav; Torresen, Jim

    2018-01-01

    Automatic music generation is a compelling task where much recent progress has been made with deep learning models. In this paper, we ask how these models can be integrated into interactive music systems; how can they encourage or enhance the music making of human users? Musical performance requires prediction to operate instruments, and perform in groups. We argue that predictive models could help interactive systems to understand their temporal context, and ensemble behaviour. Deep learning...

  10. Springback prediction in sheet metal forming process based on the hybrid SA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guo Yuqin; Jiang Hong; Wang Xiaochun; Li Fuzhu

    2005-01-01

    In terms of the intensive similarity between the sheet metal forming-springback process and that of the annealing of metals, it is suggested that the simulation of the sheet metal forming process is performed with the Nonlinear FEM and the springback prediction is implemented by solving the large-scale combinational optimum problem established on the base of the energy descending and balancing in deformed part. The BFGS-SA hybrid SA approach is proposed to solve this problem and improve the computing efficiency of the traditional SA and its capability of obtaining the global optimum solution. At the same time, the correlative annealing strategies for the SA algorithm are determined in here. By comparing the calculation results of sample part with those of experiment measurement at the specified sections, the rationality of the schedule of springback prediction used and the validity of the BFGS-SA algorithm proposed are verified

  11. Advanced state prediction of lithium-ion traction batteries in hybrid and battery electric vehicle applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jadidi, Yasser

    2011-07-01

    Automotive power trains with high energy efficiencies - particularly to be found in battery and hybrid electric vehicles - find increasing attention in the focus of reduction of exhaust emissions and increase of mileage. The underlying concept, the electrification of the power train, is subject to the traction battery and its battery management system since the capability of the battery permits and restricts electric propulsion. Consequently, the overall vehicle efficiency and in particular the operation strategy performance strongly depends on the quality of information about the battery. Besides battery technology, the key challenges are given by both the accurate prediction of battery behaviour and the electrochemical battery degradation that leads to power and capacity fade of the traction battery. This book provides the methodology for development of a battery state monitoring and prediction algorithm for application in a battery management system that accounts for the effects of electrochemical degradation. (orig.)

  12. Design, test and model of a hybrid magnetostrictive hydraulic actuator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chaudhuri, Anirban; Yoo, Jin-Hyeong; Wereley, Norman M

    2009-01-01

    The basic operation of hybrid hydraulic actuators involves high frequency bi-directional operation of an active material that is converted to uni-directional motion of hydraulic fluid using valves. A hybrid actuator was developed using magnetostrictive material Terfenol-D as the driving element and hydraulic oil as the working fluid. Two different lengths of Terfenol-D rod, 51 and 102 mm, with the same diameter, 12.7 mm, were used. Tests with no load and with load were carried out to measure the performance for uni-directional motion of the output piston at different pumping frequencies. The maximum no-load flow rates were 24.8 cm 3 s −1 and 22.7 cm 3 s −1 with the 51 mm and 102 mm long rods respectively, and the peaks were noted around 325 Hz pumping frequency. The blocked force of the actuator was close to 89 N in both cases. A key observation was that, at these high pumping frequencies, the inertial effects of the fluid mass dominate over the viscous effects and the problem becomes unsteady in nature. In this study, we also develop a mathematical model of the hydraulic hybrid actuator in the time domain to show the basic operational principle under varying conditions and to capture phenomena affecting system performance. Governing equations for the pumping piston and output shaft were obtained from force equilibrium considerations, while compressibility of the working fluid was taken into account by incorporating the bulk modulus. Fluid inertia was represented by a lumped parameter approach to the transmission line model, giving rise to strongly coupled ordinary differential equations. The model was then used to calculate the no-load velocities of the actuator at different pumping frequencies and simulation results were compared with experimental data for model validation

  13. A Hybrid Instance Selection Using Nearest-Neighbor for Cross-Project Defect Prediction

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Duksan Ryu; Jong-In Jang; Jongmoon Baik; Member; ACM; IEEE

    2015-01-01

    Software defect prediction (SDP) is an active research field in software engineering to identify defect-prone modules. Thanks to SDP, limited testing resources can be effectively allocated to defect-prone modules. Although SDP requires suffcient local data within a company, there are cases where local data are not available, e.g., pilot projects. Companies without local data can employ cross-project defect prediction (CPDP) using external data to build classifiers. The major challenge of CPDP is different distributions between training and test data. To tackle this, instances of source data similar to target data are selected to build classifiers. Software datasets have a class imbalance problem meaning the ratio of defective class to clean class is far low. It usually lowers the performance of classifiers. We propose a Hybrid Instance Selection Using Nearest-Neighbor (HISNN) method that performs a hybrid classification selectively learning local knowledge (via k-nearest neighbor) and global knowledge (via na¨ıve Bayes). Instances having strong local knowledge are identified via nearest-neighbors with the same class label. Previous studies showed low PD (probability of detection) or high PF (probability of false alarm) which is impractical to use. The experimental results show that HISNN produces high overall performance as well as high PD and low PF.

  14. Design of a hybrid model for cardiac arrhythmia classification based on Daubechies wavelet transform.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajagopal, Rekha; Ranganathan, Vidhyapriya

    2018-06-05

    Automation in cardiac arrhythmia classification helps medical professionals make accurate decisions about the patient's health. The aim of this work was to design a hybrid classification model to classify cardiac arrhythmias. The design phase of the classification model comprises the following stages: preprocessing of the cardiac signal by eliminating detail coefficients that contain noise, feature extraction through Daubechies wavelet transform, and arrhythmia classification using a collaborative decision from the K nearest neighbor classifier (KNN) and a support vector machine (SVM). The proposed model is able to classify 5 arrhythmia classes as per the ANSI/AAMI EC57: 1998 classification standard. Level 1 of the proposed model involves classification using the KNN and the classifier is trained with examples from all classes. Level 2 involves classification using an SVM and is trained specifically to classify overlapped classes. The final classification of a test heartbeat pertaining to a particular class is done using the proposed KNN/SVM hybrid model. The experimental results demonstrated that the average sensitivity of the proposed model was 92.56%, the average specificity 99.35%, the average positive predictive value 98.13%, the average F-score 94.5%, and the average accuracy 99.78%. The results obtained using the proposed model were compared with the results of discriminant, tree, and KNN classifiers. The proposed model is able to achieve a high classification accuracy.

  15. Modeling and predicting historical volatility in exchange rate markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lahmiri, Salim

    2017-04-01

    Volatility modeling and forecasting of currency exchange rate is an important task in several business risk management tasks; including treasury risk management, derivatives pricing, and portfolio risk evaluation. The purpose of this study is to present a simple and effective approach for predicting historical volatility of currency exchange rate. The approach is based on a limited set of technical indicators as inputs to the artificial neural networks (ANN). To show the effectiveness of the proposed approach, it was applied to forecast US/Canada and US/Euro exchange rates volatilities. The forecasting results show that our simple approach outperformed the conventional GARCH and EGARCH with different distribution assumptions, and also the hybrid GARCH and EGARCH with ANN in terms of mean absolute error, mean of squared errors, and Theil's inequality coefficient. Because of the simplicity and effectiveness of the approach, it is promising for US currency volatility prediction tasks.

  16. Unreachable Setpoints in Model Predictive Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rawlings, James B.; Bonné, Dennis; Jørgensen, John Bagterp

    2008-01-01

    In this work, a new model predictive controller is developed that handles unreachable setpoints better than traditional model predictive control methods. The new controller induces an interesting fast/slow asymmetry in the tracking response of the system. Nominal asymptotic stability of the optimal...... steady state is established for terminal constraint model predictive control (MPC). The region of attraction is the steerable set. Existing analysis methods for closed-loop properties of MPC are not applicable to this new formulation, and a new analysis method is developed. It is shown how to extend...

  17. Bayesian Predictive Models for Rayleigh Wind Speed

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shahirinia, Amir; Hajizadeh, Amin; Yu, David C

    2017-01-01

    predictive model of the wind speed aggregates the non-homogeneous distributions into a single continuous distribution. Therefore, the result is able to capture the variation among the probability distributions of the wind speeds at the turbines’ locations in a wind farm. More specifically, instead of using...... a wind speed distribution whose parameters are known or estimated, the parameters are considered as random whose variations are according to probability distributions. The Bayesian predictive model for a Rayleigh which only has a single model scale parameter has been proposed. Also closed-form posterior...... and predictive inferences under different reasonable choices of prior distribution in sensitivity analysis have been presented....

  18. Bayesian inference for hybrid discrete-continuous stochastic kinetic models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sherlock, Chris; Golightly, Andrew; Gillespie, Colin S

    2014-01-01

    We consider the problem of efficiently performing simulation and inference for stochastic kinetic models. Whilst it is possible to work directly with the resulting Markov jump process (MJP), computational cost can be prohibitive for networks of realistic size and complexity. In this paper, we consider an inference scheme based on a novel hybrid simulator that classifies reactions as either ‘fast’ or ‘slow’ with fast reactions evolving as a continuous Markov process whilst the remaining slow reaction occurrences are modelled through a MJP with time-dependent hazards. A linear noise approximation (LNA) of fast reaction dynamics is employed and slow reaction events are captured by exploiting the ability to solve the stochastic differential equation driving the LNA. This simulation procedure is used as a proposal mechanism inside a particle MCMC scheme, thus allowing Bayesian inference for the model parameters. We apply the scheme to a simple application and compare the output with an existing hybrid approach and also a scheme for performing inference for the underlying discrete stochastic model. (paper)

  19. Hybrid microscopic depletion model in nodal code DYN3D

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bilodid, Y.; Kotlyar, D.; Shwageraus, E.; Fridman, E.; Kliem, S.

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • A new hybrid method of accounting for spectral history effects is proposed. • Local concentrations of over 1000 nuclides are calculated using micro depletion. • The new method is implemented in nodal code DYN3D and verified. - Abstract: The paper presents a general hybrid method that combines the micro-depletion technique with correction of micro- and macro-diffusion parameters to account for the spectral history effects. The fuel in a core is subjected to time- and space-dependent operational conditions (e.g. coolant density), which cannot be predicted in advance. However, lattice codes assume some average conditions to generate cross sections (XS) for nodal diffusion codes such as DYN3D. Deviation of local operational history from average conditions leads to accumulation of errors in XS, which is referred as spectral history effects. Various methods to account for the spectral history effects, such as spectral index, burnup-averaged operational parameters and micro-depletion, were implemented in some nodal codes. Recently, an alternative method, which characterizes fuel depletion state by burnup and 239 Pu concentration (denoted as Pu-correction) was proposed, implemented in nodal code DYN3D and verified for a wide range of history effects. The method is computationally efficient, however, it has applicability limitations. The current study seeks to improve the accuracy and applicability range of Pu-correction method. The proposed hybrid method combines the micro-depletion method with a XS characterization technique similar to the Pu-correction method. The method was implemented in DYN3D and verified on multiple test cases. The results obtained with DYN3D were compared to those obtained with Monte Carlo code Serpent, which was also used to generate the XS. The observed differences are within the statistical uncertainties.

  20. Prediction of the optimum hybridization conditions of dot-blot-SNP analysis using estimated melting temperature of oligonucleotide probes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiokai, Sachiko; Kitashiba, Hiroyasu; Nishio, Takeshi

    2010-08-01

    Although the dot-blot-SNP technique is a simple cost-saving technique suitable for genotyping of many plant individuals, optimization of hybridization and washing conditions for each SNP marker requires much time and labor. For prediction of the optimum hybridization conditions for each probe, we compared T (m) values estimated from nucleotide sequences using the DINAMelt web server, measured T (m) values, and hybridization conditions yielding allele-specific signals. The estimated T (m) values were comparable to the measured T (m) values with small differences of less than 3 degrees C for most of the probes. There were differences of approximately 14 degrees C between the specific signal detection conditions and estimated T (m) values. Change of one level of SSC concentrations of 0.1, 0.2, 0.5, and 1.0x SSC corresponded to a difference of approximately 5 degrees C in optimum signal detection temperature. Increasing the sensitivity of signal detection by shortening the exposure time to X-ray film changed the optimum hybridization condition for specific signal detection. Addition of competitive oligonucleotides to the hybridization mixture increased the suitable hybridization conditions by 1.8. Based on these results, optimum hybridization conditions for newly produced dot-blot-SNP markers will become predictable.

  1. Predictive Modelling and Time: An Experiment in Temporal Archaeological Predictive Models

    OpenAIRE

    David Ebert

    2006-01-01

    One of the most common criticisms of archaeological predictive modelling is that it fails to account for temporal or functional differences in sites. However, a practical solution to temporal or functional predictive modelling has proven to be elusive. This article discusses temporal predictive modelling, focusing on the difficulties of employing temporal variables, then introduces and tests a simple methodology for the implementation of temporal modelling. The temporal models thus created ar...

  2. Fingerprint verification prediction model in hand dermatitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Chew K; Chang, Choong C; Johor, Asmah; Othman, Puwira; Baba, Roshidah

    2015-07-01

    Hand dermatitis associated fingerprint changes is a significant problem and affects fingerprint verification processes. This study was done to develop a clinically useful prediction model for fingerprint verification in patients with hand dermatitis. A case-control study involving 100 patients with hand dermatitis. All patients verified their thumbprints against their identity card. Registered fingerprints were randomized into a model derivation and model validation group. Predictive model was derived using multiple logistic regression. Validation was done using the goodness-of-fit test. The fingerprint verification prediction model consists of a major criterion (fingerprint dystrophy area of ≥ 25%) and two minor criteria (long horizontal lines and long vertical lines). The presence of the major criterion predicts it will almost always fail verification, while presence of both minor criteria and presence of one minor criterion predict high and low risk of fingerprint verification failure, respectively. When none of the criteria are met, the fingerprint almost always passes the verification. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.937, and the goodness-of-fit test showed agreement between the observed and expected number (P = 0.26). The derived fingerprint verification failure prediction model is validated and highly discriminatory in predicting risk of fingerprint verification in patients with hand dermatitis. © 2014 The International Society of Dermatology.

  3. Massive Predictive Modeling using Oracle R Enterprise

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2014-01-01

    R is fast becoming the lingua franca for analyzing data via statistics, visualization, and predictive analytics. For enterprise-scale data, R users have three main concerns: scalability, performance, and production deployment. Oracle's R-based technologies - Oracle R Distribution, Oracle R Enterprise, Oracle R Connector for Hadoop, and the R package ROracle - address these concerns. In this talk, we introduce Oracle's R technologies, highlighting how each enables R users to achieve scalability and performance while making production deployment of R results a natural outcome of the data analyst/scientist efforts. The focus then turns to Oracle R Enterprise with code examples using the transparency layer and embedded R execution, targeting massive predictive modeling. One goal behind massive predictive modeling is to build models per entity, such as customers, zip codes, simulations, in an effort to understand behavior and tailor predictions at the entity level. Predictions...

  4. Multi-model analysis in hydrological prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lanthier, M.; Arsenault, R.; Brissette, F.

    2017-12-01

    Hydrologic modelling, by nature, is a simplification of the real-world hydrologic system. Therefore ensemble hydrological predictions thus obtained do not present the full range of possible streamflow outcomes, thereby producing ensembles which demonstrate errors in variance such as under-dispersion. Past studies show that lumped models used in prediction mode can return satisfactory results, especially when there is not enough information available on the watershed to run a distributed model. But all lumped models greatly simplify the complex processes of the hydrologic cycle. To generate more spread in the hydrologic ensemble predictions, multi-model ensembles have been considered. In this study, the aim is to propose and analyse a method that gives an ensemble streamflow prediction that properly represents the forecast probabilities and reduced ensemble bias. To achieve this, three simple lumped models are used to generate an ensemble. These will also be combined using multi-model averaging techniques, which generally generate a more accurate hydrogram than the best of the individual models in simulation mode. This new predictive combined hydrogram is added to the ensemble, thus creating a large ensemble which may improve the variability while also improving the ensemble mean bias. The quality of the predictions is then assessed on different periods: 2 weeks, 1 month, 3 months and 6 months using a PIT Histogram of the percentiles of the real observation volumes with respect to the volumes of the ensemble members. Initially, the models were run using historical weather data to generate synthetic flows. This worked for individual models, but not for the multi-model and for the large ensemble. Consequently, by performing data assimilation at each prediction period and thus adjusting the initial states of the models, the PIT Histogram could be constructed using the observed flows while allowing the use of the multi-model predictions. The under-dispersion has been

  5. A viable D-term hybrid inflation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kadota, Kenji; Kobayashi, Tatsuo; Sumita, Keigo

    2017-11-01

    We propose a new model of the D-term hybrid inflation in the framework of supergravity. Although our model introduces, analogously to the conventional D-term inflation, the inflaton and a pair of scalar fields charged under a U(1) gauge symmetry, we study the logarithmic and exponential dependence on the inflaton field, respectively, for the Kähler and superpotential. This results in a characteristic one-loop scalar potential consisting of linear and exponential terms, which realizes the small-field inflation dominated by the Fayet-Iliopoulos term. With the reasonable values for the coupling coefficients and, in particular, with the U(1) gauge coupling constant comparable to that of the Standard Model, our D-term inflation model can solve the notorious problems in the conventional D-term inflation, namely, the CMB constraints on the spectral index and the generation of cosmic strings.

  6. Prostate Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing prostate cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  7. Colorectal Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing colorectal cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  8. Esophageal Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing esophageal cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  9. Bladder Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing bladder cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  10. Lung Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing lung cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  11. Breast Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing breast cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  12. Pancreatic Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing pancreatic cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  13. Ovarian Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing ovarian cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  14. Liver Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing liver cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  15. Testicular Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of testicular cervical cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  16. Cervical Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing cervical cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  17. Modeling and Prediction Using Stochastic Differential Equations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juhl, Rune; Møller, Jan Kloppenborg; Jørgensen, John Bagterp

    2016-01-01

    Pharmacokinetic/pharmakodynamic (PK/PD) modeling for a single subject is most often performed using nonlinear models based on deterministic ordinary differential equations (ODEs), and the variation between subjects in a population of subjects is described using a population (mixed effects) setup...... deterministic and can predict the future perfectly. A more realistic approach would be to allow for randomness in the model due to e.g., the model be too simple or errors in input. We describe a modeling and prediction setup which better reflects reality and suggests stochastic differential equations (SDEs...

  18. Predictive Model of Systemic Toxicity (SOT)

    Science.gov (United States)

    In an effort to ensure chemical safety in light of regulatory advances away from reliance on animal testing, USEPA and L’Oréal have collaborated to develop a quantitative systemic toxicity prediction model. Prediction of human systemic toxicity has proved difficult and remains a ...

  19. Quality prediction modeling for sintered ores based on mechanism models of sintering and extreme learning machine based error compensation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tiebin, Wu; Yunlian, Liu; Xinjun, Li; Yi, Yu; Bin, Zhang

    2018-06-01

    Aiming at the difficulty in quality prediction of sintered ores, a hybrid prediction model is established based on mechanism models of sintering and time-weighted error compensation on the basis of the extreme learning machine (ELM). At first, mechanism models of drum index, total iron, and alkalinity are constructed according to the chemical reaction mechanism and conservation of matter in the sintering process. As the process is simplified in the mechanism models, these models are not able to describe high nonlinearity. Therefore, errors are inevitable. For this reason, the time-weighted ELM based error compensation model is established. Simulation results verify that the hybrid model has a high accuracy and can meet the requirement for industrial applications.

  20. A novel hybrid decomposition-and-ensemble model based on CEEMD and GWO for short-term PM2.5 concentration forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niu, Mingfei; Wang, Yufang; Sun, Shaolong; Li, Yongwu

    2016-06-01

    To enhance prediction reliability and accuracy, a hybrid model based on the promising principle of "decomposition and ensemble" and a recently proposed meta-heuristic called grey wolf optimizer (GWO) is introduced for daily PM2.5 concentration forecasting. Compared with existing PM2.5 forecasting methods, this proposed model has improved the prediction accuracy and hit rates of directional prediction. The proposed model involves three main steps, i.e., decomposing the original PM2.5 series into several intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) via complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition (CEEMD) for simplifying the complex data; individually predicting each IMF with support vector regression (SVR) optimized by GWO; integrating all predicted IMFs for the ensemble result as the final prediction by another SVR optimized by GWO. Seven benchmark models, including single artificial intelligence (AI) models, other decomposition-ensemble models with different decomposition methods and models with the same decomposition-ensemble method but optimized by different algorithms, are considered to verify the superiority of the proposed hybrid model. The empirical study indicates that the proposed hybrid decomposition-ensemble model is remarkably superior to all considered benchmark models for its higher prediction accuracy and hit rates of directional prediction.

  1. On The Modelling Of Hybrid Aerostatic - Gas Journal Bearings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Morosi, Stefano; Santos, Ilmar

    2011-01-01

    modeling for hybrid lubrication of a compressible fluid film journal bearing. Additional forces are generated by injecting pressurized air into the bearing gap through orifices located on the bearing walls. A modified form of the compressible Reynolds equation for active lubrication is derived. By solving......Gas journal bearing have been increasingly adopted in modern turbo-machinery applications, as they meet the demands of operation at higher rotational speeds, in clean environment and great efficiency. Due to the fact that gaseous lubricants, typically air, have much lower viscosity than more...

  2. Software development infrastructure for the HYBRID modeling and simulation project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Epiney, Aaron S.; Kinoshita, Robert A.; Kim, Jong Suk; Rabiti, Cristian; Greenwood, M. Scott

    2016-01-01

    One of the goals of the HYBRID modeling and simulation project is to assess the economic viability of hybrid systems in a market that contains renewable energy sources like wind. The idea is that it is possible for the nuclear plant to sell non-electric energy cushions, which absorb (at least partially) the volatility introduced by the renewable energy sources. This system is currently modeled in the Modelica programming language. To assess the economics of the system, an optimization procedure is trying to find the minimal cost of electricity production. The RAVEN code is used as a driver for the whole problem. It is assumed that at this stage, the HYBRID modeling and simulation framework can be classified as non-safety “research and development” software. The associated quality level is Quality Level 3 software. This imposes low requirements on quality control, testing and documentation. The quality level could change as the application development continues.Despite the low quality requirement level, a workflow for the HYBRID developers has been defined that include a coding standard and some documentation and testing requirements. The repository performs automated unit testing of contributed models. The automated testing is achieved via an open-source python script called BuildingsP from Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. BuildingsPy runs Modelica simulation tests using Dymola in an automated manner and generates and runs unit tests from Modelica scripts written by developers. In order to assure effective communication between the different national laboratories a biweekly videoconference has been set-up, where developers can report their progress and issues. In addition, periodic face-face meetings are organized intended to discuss high-level strategy decisions with management. A second means of communication is the developer email list. This is a list to which everybody can send emails that will be received by the collective of the developers and managers

  3. The Hybrid Airline Model. Generating Quality for Passengers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bogdan AVRAM

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This research aims to investigate the different strategies adopted by the airline companies in adapting to the ongoing changes while developing products and services for passengers in order to increase their yield, load factor and passenger satisfaction. Finding a balance between costs and services quality in the airline industry is a crucial task for every airline wanting to gain a competitive advantage on the market. Also, the rise of the hybrid business operating model has brought up many challenges for airlines as the line between legacy carriers and low-cost carriers is getting thinner in terms of costs and innovative ideas to create a superior product for the passengers.

  4. Software development infrastructure for the HYBRID modeling and simulation project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Epiney, Aaron S. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Kinoshita, Robert A. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Kim, Jong Suk [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Rabiti, Cristian [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Greenwood, M. Scott [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2016-09-01

    One of the goals of the HYBRID modeling and simulation project is to assess the economic viability of hybrid systems in a market that contains renewable energy sources like wind. The idea is that it is possible for the nuclear plant to sell non-electric energy cushions, which absorb (at least partially) the volatility introduced by the renewable energy sources. This system is currently modeled in the Modelica programming language. To assess the economics of the system, an optimization procedure is trying to find the minimal cost of electricity production. The RAVEN code is used as a driver for the whole problem. It is assumed that at this stage, the HYBRID modeling and simulation framework can be classified as non-safety “research and development” software. The associated quality level is Quality Level 3 software. This imposes low requirements on quality control, testing and documentation. The quality level could change as the application development continues.Despite the low quality requirement level, a workflow for the HYBRID developers has been defined that include a coding standard and some documentation and testing requirements. The repository performs automated unit testing of contributed models. The automated testing is achieved via an open-source python script called BuildingsP from Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. BuildingsPy runs Modelica simulation tests using Dymola in an automated manner and generates and runs unit tests from Modelica scripts written by developers. In order to assure effective communication between the different national laboratories a biweekly videoconference has been set-up, where developers can report their progress and issues. In addition, periodic face-face meetings are organized intended to discuss high-level strategy decisions with management. A second means of communication is the developer email list. This is a list to which everybody can send emails that will be received by the collective of the developers and managers

  5. Prediction of total organic carbon content in shale reservoir based on a new integrated hybrid neural network and conventional well logging curves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Linqi; Zhang, Chong; Zhang, Chaomo; Wei, Yang; Zhou, Xueqing; Cheng, Yuan; Huang, Yuyang; Zhang, Le

    2018-06-01

    There is increasing interest in shale gas reservoirs due to their abundant reserves. As a key evaluation criterion, the total organic carbon content (TOC) of the reservoirs can reflect its hydrocarbon generation potential. The existing TOC calculation model is not very accurate and there is still the possibility for improvement. In this paper, an integrated hybrid neural network (IHNN) model is proposed for predicting the TOC. This is based on the fact that the TOC information on the low TOC reservoir, where the TOC is easy to evaluate, comes from a prediction problem, which is the inherent problem of the existing algorithm. By comparing the prediction models established in 132 rock samples in the shale gas reservoir within the Jiaoshiba area, it can be seen that the accuracy of the proposed IHNN model is much higher than that of the other prediction models. The mean square error of the samples, which were not joined to the established models, was reduced from 0.586 to 0.442. The results show that TOC prediction is easier after logging prediction has been improved. Furthermore, this paper puts forward the next research direction of the prediction model. The IHNN algorithm can help evaluate the TOC of a shale gas reservoir.

  6. Spent fuel: prediction model development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Almassy, M.Y.; Bosi, D.M.; Cantley, D.A.

    1979-07-01

    The need for spent fuel disposal performance modeling stems from a requirement to assess the risks involved with deep geologic disposal of spent fuel, and to support licensing and public acceptance of spent fuel repositories. Through the balanced program of analysis, diagnostic testing, and disposal demonstration tests, highlighted in this presentation, the goal of defining risks and of quantifying fuel performance during long-term disposal can be attained

  7. Navy Recruit Attrition Prediction Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-09-01

    have high correlation with attrition, such as age, job characteristics, command climate, marital status, behavior issues prior to recruitment, and the...the additive model. glm(formula = Outcome ~ Age + Gender + Marital + AFQTCat + Pay + Ed + Dep, family = binomial, data = ltraining) Deviance ...0.1 ‘ ‘ 1 (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1) Null deviance : 105441 on 85221 degrees of freedom Residual deviance

  8. Predicting and Modeling RNA Architecture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westhof, Eric; Masquida, Benoît; Jossinet, Fabrice

    2011-01-01

    SUMMARY A general approach for modeling the architecture of large and structured RNA molecules is described. The method exploits the modularity and the hierarchical folding of RNA architecture that is viewed as the assembly of preformed double-stranded helices defined by Watson-Crick base pairs and RNA modules maintained by non-Watson-Crick base pairs. Despite the extensive molecular neutrality observed in RNA structures, specificity in RNA folding is achieved through global constraints like lengths of helices, coaxiality of helical stacks, and structures adopted at the junctions of helices. The Assemble integrated suite of computer tools allows for sequence and structure analysis as well as interactive modeling by homology or ab initio assembly with possibilities for fitting within electronic density maps. The local key role of non-Watson-Crick pairs guides RNA architecture formation and offers metrics for assessing the accuracy of three-dimensional models in a more useful way than usual root mean square deviation (RMSD) values. PMID:20504963

  9. Hybrid Reynolds-Averaged/Large Eddy Simulation of the Flow in a Model SCRamjet Cavity Flameholder

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baurle, R. A.

    2016-01-01

    Steady-state and scale-resolving simulations have been performed for flow in and around a model scramjet combustor flameholder. Experimental data available for this configuration include velocity statistics obtained from particle image velocimetry. Several turbulence models were used for the steady-state Reynolds-averaged simulations which included both linear and non-linear eddy viscosity models. The scale-resolving simulations used a hybrid Reynolds-averaged/large eddy simulation strategy that is designed to be a large eddy simulation everywhere except in the inner portion (log layer and below) of the boundary layer. Hence, this formulation can be regarded as a wall-modeled large eddy simulation. This e ort was undertaken to not only assess the performance of the hybrid Reynolds-averaged / large eddy simulation modeling approach in a flowfield of interest to the scramjet research community, but to also begin to understand how this capability can best be used to augment standard Reynolds-averaged simulations. The numerical errors were quantified for the steady-state simulations, and at least qualitatively assessed for the scale-resolving simulations prior to making any claims of predictive accuracy relative to the measurements. The steady-state Reynolds-averaged results displayed a high degree of variability when comparing the flameholder fuel distributions obtained from each turbulence model. This prompted the consideration of applying the higher-fidelity scale-resolving simulations as a surrogate "truth" model to calibrate the Reynolds-averaged closures in a non-reacting setting prior to their use for the combusting simulations. In general, the Reynolds-averaged velocity profile predictions at the lowest fueling level matched the particle imaging measurements almost as well as was observed for the non-reacting condition. However, the velocity field predictions proved to be more sensitive to the flameholder fueling rate than was indicated in the measurements.

  10. Predictive Models and Computational Toxicology (II IBAMTOX)

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA’s ‘virtual embryo’ project is building an integrative systems biology framework for predictive models of developmental toxicity. One schema involves a knowledge-driven adverse outcome pathway (AOP) framework utilizing information from public databases, standardized ontologies...

  11. Finding furfural hydrogenation catalysts via predictive modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Strassberger, Z.; Mooijman, M.; Ruijter, E.; Alberts, A.H.; Maldonado, A.G.; Orru, R.V.A.; Rothenberg, G.

    2010-01-01

    We combine multicomponent reactions, catalytic performance studies and predictive modelling to find transfer hydrogenation catalysts. An initial set of 18 ruthenium-carbene complexes were synthesized and screened in the transfer hydrogenation of furfural to furfurol with isopropyl alcohol complexes

  12. FINITE ELEMENT MODEL FOR PREDICTING RESIDUAL ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    FINITE ELEMENT MODEL FOR PREDICTING RESIDUAL STRESSES IN ... the transverse residual stress in the x-direction (σx) had a maximum value of 375MPa ... the finite element method are in fair agreement with the experimental results.

  13. Evaluation of CASP8 model quality predictions

    KAUST Repository

    Cozzetto, Domenico; Kryshtafovych, Andriy; Tramontano, Anna

    2009-01-01

    established a prediction category to evaluate their performance in 2006. In 2008 the experiment was repeated and its results are reported here. Participants were invited to infer the correctness of the protein models submitted by the registered automatic

  14. Causality in Psychiatry: A Hybrid Symptom Network Construct Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gerald eYoung

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Causality or etiology in psychiatry is marked by standard biomedical, reductionistic models (symptoms reflect the construct involved that inform approaches to nosology, or classification, such as in the DSM-5 (Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fifth Edition; American Psychiatric Association, 2013. However, network approaches to symptom interaction (i.e., symptoms are formative of the construct; e.g., McNally, Robinaugh, Wu, Wang, Deserno, & Borsboom, 2014, for PTSD (posttraumatic stress disorder are being developed that speak to bottom-up processes in mental disorder, in contrast to the typical top-down psychological construct approach. The present article presents a hybrid top-down, bottom-up model of the relationship between symptoms and mental disorder, viewing symptom expression and their causal complex as a reciprocally dynamic system with multiple levels, from lower-order symptoms in interaction to higher-order constructs affecting them. The hybrid model hinges on good understanding of systems theory in which it is embedded, so that the article reviews in depth nonlinear dynamical systems theory (NLDST. The article applies the concept of emergent circular causality (Young, 2011 to symptom development, as well. Conclusions consider that symptoms vary over several dimensions, including: subjectivity; objectivity; conscious motivation effort; and unconscious influences, and the degree to which individual (e.g., meaning and universal (e.g., causal processes are involved. The opposition between science and skepticism is a complex one that the article addresses in final comments.

  15. Hybrid 2D-3D modelling of GTA welding with filler wire addition

    KAUST Repository

    Traidia, Abderrazak

    2012-07-01

    A hybrid 2D-3D model for the numerical simulation of Gas Tungsten Arc welding is proposed in this paper. It offers the possibility to predict the temperature field as well as the shape of the solidified weld joint for different operating parameters, with relatively good accuracy and reasonable computational cost. Also, an original approach to simulate the effect of immersing a cold filler wire in the weld pool is presented. The simulation results reveal two important observations. First, the weld pool depth is locally decreased in the presence of filler metal, which is due to the energy absorption by the cold feeding wire from the hot molten pool. In addition, the weld shape, maximum temperature and thermal cycles in the workpiece are relatively well predicted even when a 2D model for the arc plasma region is used. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Hybrid ABC Optimized MARS-Based Modeling of the Milling Tool Wear from Milling Run Experimental Data

    OpenAIRE

    Garc?a Nieto, Paulino Jos?; Garc?a-Gonzalo, Esperanza; Ord??ez Gal?n, Celestino; Bernardo S?nchez, Antonio

    2016-01-01

    Milling cutters are important cutting tools used in milling machines to perform milling operations, which are prone to wear and subsequent failure. In this paper, a practical new hybrid model to predict the milling tool wear in a regular cut, as well as entry cut and exit cut, of a milling tool is proposed. The model was based on the optimization tool termed artificial bee colony (ABC) in combination with multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) technique. This optimization mechanism i...

  17. Efficient Vaccine Distribution Based on a Hybrid Compartmental Model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhiwen Yu

    Full Text Available To effectively and efficiently reduce the morbidity and mortality that may be caused by outbreaks of emerging infectious diseases, it is very important for public health agencies to make informed decisions for controlling the spread of the disease. Such decisions must incorporate various kinds of intervention strategies, such as vaccinations, school closures and border restrictions. Recently, researchers have paid increased attention to searching for effective vaccine distribution strategies for reducing the effects of pandemic outbreaks when resources are limited. Most of the existing research work has been focused on how to design an effective age-structured epidemic model and to select a suitable vaccine distribution strategy to prevent the propagation of an infectious virus. Models that evaluate age structure effects are common, but models that additionally evaluate geographical effects are less common. In this paper, we propose a new SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious šC recovered model, named the hybrid SEIR-V model (HSEIR-V, which considers not only the dynamics of infection prevalence in several age-specific host populations, but also seeks to characterize the dynamics by which a virus spreads in various geographic districts. Several vaccination strategies such as different kinds of vaccine coverage, different vaccine releasing times and different vaccine deployment methods are incorporated into the HSEIR-V compartmental model. We also design four hybrid vaccination distribution strategies (based on population size, contact pattern matrix, infection rate and infectious risk for controlling the spread of viral infections. Based on data from the 2009-2010 H1N1 influenza epidemic, we evaluate the effectiveness of our proposed HSEIR-V model and study the effects of different types of human behaviour in responding to epidemics.

  18. Mental models accurately predict emotion transitions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thornton, Mark A; Tamir, Diana I

    2017-06-06

    Successful social interactions depend on people's ability to predict others' future actions and emotions. People possess many mechanisms for perceiving others' current emotional states, but how might they use this information to predict others' future states? We hypothesized that people might capitalize on an overlooked aspect of affective experience: current emotions predict future emotions. By attending to regularities in emotion transitions, perceivers might develop accurate mental models of others' emotional dynamics. People could then use these mental models of emotion transitions to predict others' future emotions from currently observable emotions. To test this hypothesis, studies 1-3 used data from three extant experience-sampling datasets to establish the actual rates of emotional transitions. We then collected three parallel datasets in which participants rated the transition likelihoods between the same set of emotions. Participants' ratings of emotion transitions predicted others' experienced transitional likelihoods with high accuracy. Study 4 demonstrated that four conceptual dimensions of mental state representation-valence, social impact, rationality, and human mind-inform participants' mental models. Study 5 used 2 million emotion reports on the Experience Project to replicate both of these findings: again people reported accurate models of emotion transitions, and these models were informed by the same four conceptual dimensions. Importantly, neither these conceptual dimensions nor holistic similarity could fully explain participants' accuracy, suggesting that their mental models contain accurate information about emotion dynamics above and beyond what might be predicted by static emotion knowledge alone.

  19. Mental models accurately predict emotion transitions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thornton, Mark A.; Tamir, Diana I.

    2017-01-01

    Successful social interactions depend on people’s ability to predict others’ future actions and emotions. People possess many mechanisms for perceiving others’ current emotional states, but how might they use this information to predict others’ future states? We hypothesized that people might capitalize on an overlooked aspect of affective experience: current emotions predict future emotions. By attending to regularities in emotion transitions, perceivers might develop accurate mental models of others’ emotional dynamics. People could then use these mental models of emotion transitions to predict others’ future emotions from currently observable emotions. To test this hypothesis, studies 1–3 used data from three extant experience-sampling datasets to establish the actual rates of emotional transitions. We then collected three parallel datasets in which participants rated the transition likelihoods between the same set of emotions. Participants’ ratings of emotion transitions predicted others’ experienced transitional likelihoods with high accuracy. Study 4 demonstrated that four conceptual dimensions of mental state representation—valence, social impact, rationality, and human mind—inform participants’ mental models. Study 5 used 2 million emotion reports on the Experience Project to replicate both of these findings: again people reported accurate models of emotion transitions, and these models were informed by the same four conceptual dimensions. Importantly, neither these conceptual dimensions nor holistic similarity could fully explain participants’ accuracy, suggesting that their mental models contain accurate information about emotion dynamics above and beyond what might be predicted by static emotion knowledge alone. PMID:28533373

  20. Hybrid Modeling Method for a DEP Based Particle Manipulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamad Sawan

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a new modeling approach for Dielectrophoresis (DEP based particle manipulation is presented. The proposed method fulfills missing links in finite element modeling between the multiphysic simulation and the biological behavior. This technique is amongst the first steps to develop a more complex platform covering several types of manipulations such as magnetophoresis and optics. The modeling approach is based on a hybrid interface using both ANSYS and MATLAB to link the propagation of the electrical field in the micro-channel to the particle motion. ANSYS is used to simulate the electrical propagation while MATLAB interprets the results to calculate cell displacement and send the new information to ANSYS for another turn. The beta version of the proposed technique takes into account particle shape, weight and its electrical properties. First obtained results are coherent with experimental results.

  1. Return Predictability, Model Uncertainty, and Robust Investment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lukas, Manuel

    Stock return predictability is subject to great uncertainty. In this paper we use the model confidence set approach to quantify uncertainty about expected utility from investment, accounting for potential return predictability. For monthly US data and six representative return prediction models, we...... find that confidence sets are very wide, change significantly with the predictor variables, and frequently include expected utilities for which the investor prefers not to invest. The latter motivates a robust investment strategy maximizing the minimal element of the confidence set. The robust investor...... allocates a much lower share of wealth to stocks compared to a standard investor....

  2. Model predictive Controller for Mobile Robot

    OpenAIRE

    Alireza Rezaee

    2017-01-01

    This paper proposes a Model Predictive Controller (MPC) for control of a P2AT mobile robot. MPC refers to a group of controllers that employ a distinctly identical model of process to predict its future behavior over an extended prediction horizon. The design of a MPC is formulated as an optimal control problem. Then this problem is considered as linear quadratic equation (LQR) and is solved by making use of Ricatti equation. To show the effectiveness of the proposed method this controller is...

  3. The influence of nonlocal hybridization on ground-state properties of the Falicov-Kimball model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farkasovsky, Pavol

    2005-01-01

    The density matrix renormalization group is used to examine effects of nonlocal hybridization on ground-state properties of the Falicov-Kimball model (FKM) in one dimension. Special attention is devoted to the problem of hybridization-induced insulator-metal transition. It is shown that the picture of insulator-metal transitions found for the FKM with nonlocal hybridization strongly differs from one found for the FKM without hybridization (as well as with local hybridization). The effect of nonlocal hybridization is so strong that it can induce the insulator-metal transition, even in the half-filled band case where the ground states of the FKM without hybridization are insulating for all finite Coulomb interactions. Outside the half-filled band case the metal-insulator transition driven by pressure is found for finite values of nonlocal hybridization

  4. Spatial Economics Model Predicting Transport Volume

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lu Bo

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available It is extremely important to predict the logistics requirements in a scientific and rational way. However, in recent years, the improvement effect on the prediction method is not very significant and the traditional statistical prediction method has the defects of low precision and poor interpretation of the prediction model, which cannot only guarantee the generalization ability of the prediction model theoretically, but also cannot explain the models effectively. Therefore, in combination with the theories of the spatial economics, industrial economics, and neo-classical economics, taking city of Zhuanghe as the research object, the study identifies the leading industry that can produce a large number of cargoes, and further predicts the static logistics generation of the Zhuanghe and hinterlands. By integrating various factors that can affect the regional logistics requirements, this study established a logistics requirements potential model from the aspect of spatial economic principles, and expanded the way of logistics requirements prediction from the single statistical principles to an new area of special and regional economics.

  5. Accuracy assessment of landslide prediction models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Othman, A N; Mohd, W M N W; Noraini, S

    2014-01-01

    The increasing population and expansion of settlements over hilly areas has greatly increased the impact of natural disasters such as landslide. Therefore, it is important to developed models which could accurately predict landslide hazard zones. Over the years, various techniques and models have been developed to predict landslide hazard zones. The aim of this paper is to access the accuracy of landslide prediction models developed by the authors. The methodology involved the selection of study area, data acquisition, data processing and model development and also data analysis. The development of these models are based on nine different landslide inducing parameters i.e. slope, land use, lithology, soil properties, geomorphology, flow accumulation, aspect, proximity to river and proximity to road. Rank sum, rating, pairwise comparison and AHP techniques are used to determine the weights for each of the parameters used. Four (4) different models which consider different parameter combinations are developed by the authors. Results obtained are compared to landslide history and accuracies for Model 1, Model 2, Model 3 and Model 4 are 66.7, 66.7%, 60% and 22.9% respectively. From the results, rank sum, rating and pairwise comparison can be useful techniques to predict landslide hazard zones

  6. Background-Modeling-Based Adaptive Prediction for Surveillance Video Coding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xianguo; Huang, Tiejun; Tian, Yonghong; Gao, Wen

    2014-02-01

    The exponential growth of surveillance videos presents an unprecedented challenge for high-efficiency surveillance video coding technology. Compared with the existing coding standards that were basically developed for generic videos, surveillance video coding should be designed to make the best use of the special characteristics of surveillance videos (e.g., relative static background). To do so, this paper first conducts two analyses on how to improve the background and foreground prediction efficiencies in surveillance video coding. Following the analysis results, we propose a background-modeling-based adaptive prediction (BMAP) method. In this method, all blocks to be encoded are firstly classified into three categories. Then, according to the category of each block, two novel inter predictions are selectively utilized, namely, the background reference prediction (BRP) that uses the background modeled from the original input frames as the long-term reference and the background difference prediction (BDP) that predicts the current data in the background difference domain. For background blocks, the BRP can effectively improve the prediction efficiency using the higher quality background as the reference; whereas for foreground-background-hybrid blocks, the BDP can provide a better reference after subtracting its background pixels. Experimental results show that the BMAP can achieve at least twice the compression ratio on surveillance videos as AVC (MPEG-4 Advanced Video Coding) high profile, yet with a slightly additional encoding complexity. Moreover, for the foreground coding performance, which is crucial to the subjective quality of moving objects in surveillance videos, BMAP also obtains remarkable gains over several state-of-the-art methods.

  7. An Interactive Personalized Recommendation System Using the Hybrid Algorithm Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yan Guo

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available With the rapid development of e-commerce, the contradiction between the disorder of business information and customer demand is increasingly prominent. This study aims to make e-commerce shopping more convenient, and avoid information overload, by an interactive personalized recommendation system using the hybrid algorithm model. The proposed model first uses various recommendation algorithms to get a list of original recommendation results. Combined with the customer’s feedback in an interactive manner, it then establishes the weights of corresponding recommendation algorithms. Finally, the synthetic formula of evidence theory is used to fuse the original results to obtain the final recommendation products. The recommendation performance of the proposed method is compared with that of traditional methods. The results of the experimental study through a Taobao online dress shop clearly show that the proposed method increases the efficiency of data mining in the consumer coverage, the consumer discovery accuracy and the recommendation recall. The hybrid recommendation algorithm complements the advantages of the existing recommendation algorithms in data mining. The interactive assigned-weight method meets consumer demand better and solves the problem of information overload. Meanwhile, our study offers important implications for e-commerce platform providers regarding the design of product recommendation systems.

  8. Hybrid quantum-classical modeling of quantum dot devices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kantner, Markus; Mittnenzweig, Markus; Koprucki, Thomas

    2017-11-01

    The design of electrically driven quantum dot devices for quantum optical applications asks for modeling approaches combining classical device physics with quantum mechanics. We connect the well-established fields of semiclassical semiconductor transport theory and the theory of open quantum systems to meet this requirement. By coupling the van Roosbroeck system with a quantum master equation in Lindblad form, we introduce a new hybrid quantum-classical modeling approach, which provides a comprehensive description of quantum dot devices on multiple scales: it enables the calculation of quantum optical figures of merit and the spatially resolved simulation of the current flow in realistic semiconductor device geometries in a unified way. We construct the interface between both theories in such a way, that the resulting hybrid system obeys the fundamental axioms of (non)equilibrium thermodynamics. We show that our approach guarantees the conservation of charge, consistency with the thermodynamic equilibrium and the second law of thermodynamics. The feasibility of the approach is demonstrated by numerical simulations of an electrically driven single-photon source based on a single quantum dot in the stationary and transient operation regime.

  9. Axelrod Model of Social Influence with Cultural Hybridization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radillo-Díaz, Alejandro; Pérez, Luis A.; Del Castillo-Mussot, Marcelo

    2012-10-01

    Since cultural interactions between a pair of social agents involve changes in both individuals, we present simulations of a new model based on Axelrod's homogenization mechanism that includes hybridization or mixture of the agents' features. In this new hybridization model, once a cultural feature of a pair of agents has been chosen for the interaction, the average of the values for this feature is reassigned as the new value for both agents after interaction. Moreover, a parameter representing social tolerance is implemented in order to quantify whether agents are similar enough to engage in interaction, as well as to determine whether they belong to the same cluster of similar agents after the system has reached the frozen state. The transitions from a homogeneous state to a fragmented one decrease in abruptness as tolerance is increased. Additionally, the entropy associated to the system presents a maximum within the transition, the width of which increases as tolerance does. Moreover, a plateau was found inside the transition for a low-tolerance system of agents with only two cultural features.

  10. A Vertically Flow-Following, Icosahedral Grid Model for Medium-Range and Seasonal Prediction. Part 1: Model Description

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bleck, Rainer; Bao, Jian-Wen; Benjamin, Stanley G.; Brown, John M.; Fiorino, Michael; Henderson, Thomas B.; Lee, Jin-Luen; MacDonald, Alexander E.; Madden, Paul; Middlecoff, Jacques; hide

    2015-01-01

    A hydrostatic global weather prediction model based on an icosahedral horizontal grid and a hybrid terrain following/ isentropic vertical coordinate is described. The model is an extension to three spatial dimensions of a previously developed, icosahedral, shallow-water model featuring user-selectable horizontal resolution and employing indirect addressing techniques. The vertical grid is adaptive to maximize the portion of the atmosphere mapped into the isentropic coordinate subdomain. The model, best described as a stacked shallow-water model, is being tested extensively on real-time medium-range forecasts to ready it for possible inclusion in operational multimodel ensembles for medium-range to seasonal prediction.

  11. Prediction of BP Reactivity to Talking Using Hybrid Soft Computing Approaches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gurmanik Kaur

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available High blood pressure (BP is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular diseases. Therefore, optimal precision in measurement of BP is appropriate in clinical and research studies. In this work, anthropometric characteristics including age, height, weight, body mass index (BMI, and arm circumference (AC were used as independent predictor variables for the prediction of BP reactivity to talking. Principal component analysis (PCA was fused with artificial neural network (ANN, adaptive neurofuzzy inference system (ANFIS, and least square-support vector machine (LS-SVM model to remove the multicollinearity effect among anthropometric predictor variables. The statistical tests in terms of coefficient of determination (R2, root mean square error (RMSE, and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE revealed that PCA based LS-SVM (PCA-LS-SVM model produced a more efficient prediction of BP reactivity as compared to other models. This assessment presents the importance and advantages posed by PCA fused prediction models for prediction of biological variables.

  12. Prediction of BP reactivity to talking using hybrid soft computing approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaur, Gurmanik; Arora, Ajat Shatru; Jain, Vijender Kumar

    2014-01-01

    High blood pressure (BP) is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular diseases. Therefore, optimal precision in measurement of BP is appropriate in clinical and research studies. In this work, anthropometric characteristics including age, height, weight, body mass index (BMI), and arm circumference (AC) were used as independent predictor variables for the prediction of BP reactivity to talking. Principal component analysis (PCA) was fused with artificial neural network (ANN), adaptive neurofuzzy inference system (ANFIS), and least square-support vector machine (LS-SVM) model to remove the multicollinearity effect among anthropometric predictor variables. The statistical tests in terms of coefficient of determination (R (2)), root mean square error (RMSE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) revealed that PCA based LS-SVM (PCA-LS-SVM) model produced a more efficient prediction of BP reactivity as compared to other models. This assessment presents the importance and advantages posed by PCA fused prediction models for prediction of biological variables.

  13. Modelling the solar wind interaction with Mercury by a quasi-neutral hybrid model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Kallio

    Full Text Available Quasi-neutral hybrid model is a self-consistent modelling approach that includes positively charged particles and an electron fluid. The approach has received an increasing interest in space plasma physics research because it makes it possible to study several plasma physical processes that are difficult or impossible to model by self-consistent fluid models, such as the effects associated with the ions’ finite gyroradius, the velocity difference between different ion species, or the non-Maxwellian velocity distribution function. By now quasi-neutral hybrid models have been used to study the solar wind interaction with the non-magnetised Solar System bodies of Mars, Venus, Titan and comets. Localized, two-dimensional hybrid model runs have also been made to study terrestrial dayside magnetosheath. However, the Hermean plasma environment has not yet been analysed by a global quasi-neutral hybrid model.

    In this paper we present a new quasi-neutral hybrid model developed to study various processes associated with the Mercury-solar wind interaction. Emphasis is placed on addressing advantages and disadvantages of the approach to study different plasma physical processes near the planet. The basic assumptions of the approach and the algorithms used in the new model are thoroughly presented. Finally, some of the first three-dimensional hybrid model runs made for Mercury are presented.

    The resulting macroscopic plasma parameters and the morphology of the magnetic field demonstrate the applicability of the new approach to study the Mercury-solar wind interaction globally. In addition, the real advantage of the kinetic hybrid model approach is to study the property of individual ions, and the study clearly demonstrates the large potential of the approach to address these more detailed issues by a quasi-neutral hybrid model in the future.

    Key words. Magnetospheric physics

  14. Hybrid Scheme for Modeling Local Field Potentials from Point-Neuron Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hagen, Espen; Dahmen, David; Stavrinou, Maria L

    2016-01-01

    on populations of network-equivalent multicompartment neuron models with layer-specific synaptic connectivity, can be used with an arbitrary number of point-neuron network populations, and allows for a full separation of simulated network dynamics and LFPs. We apply the scheme to a full-scale cortical network......With rapidly advancing multi-electrode recording technology, the local field potential (LFP) has again become a popular measure of neuronal activity in both research and clinical applications. Proper understanding of the LFP requires detailed mathematical modeling incorporating the anatomical...... and electrophysiological features of neurons near the recording electrode, as well as synaptic inputs from the entire network. Here we propose a hybrid modeling scheme combining efficient point-neuron network models with biophysical principles underlying LFP generation by real neurons. The LFP predictions rely...

  15. An Investigation of a Hybrid Mixing Model for PDF Simulations of Turbulent Premixed Flames

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Hua; Li, Shan; Wang, Hu; Ren, Zhuyin

    2015-11-01

    Predictive simulations of turbulent premixed flames over a wide range of Damköhler numbers in the framework of Probability Density Function (PDF) method still remain challenging due to the deficiency in current micro-mixing models. In this work, a hybrid micro-mixing model, valid in both the flamelet regime and broken reaction zone regime, is proposed. A priori testing of this model is first performed by examining the conditional scalar dissipation rate and conditional scalar diffusion in a 3-D direct numerical simulation dataset of a temporally evolving turbulent slot jet flame of lean premixed H2-air in the thin reaction zone regime. Then, this new model is applied to PDF simulations of the Piloted Premixed Jet Burner (PPJB) flames, which are a set of highly shear turbulent premixed flames and feature strong turbulence-chemistry interaction at high Reynolds and Karlovitz numbers. Supported by NSFC 51476087 and NSFC 91441202.

  16. Predictive validation of an influenza spread model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ayaz Hyder

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Modeling plays a critical role in mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. Complex simulation models are currently at the forefront of evaluating optimal mitigation strategies at multiple scales and levels of organization. Given their evaluative role, these models remain limited in their ability to predict and forecast future epidemics leading some researchers and public-health practitioners to question their usefulness. The objective of this study is to evaluate the predictive ability of an existing complex simulation model of influenza spread. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used extensive data on past epidemics to demonstrate the process of predictive validation. This involved generalizing an individual-based model for influenza spread and fitting it to laboratory-confirmed influenza infection data from a single observed epidemic (1998-1999. Next, we used the fitted model and modified two of its parameters based on data on real-world perturbations (vaccination coverage by age group and strain type. Simulating epidemics under these changes allowed us to estimate the deviation/error between the expected epidemic curve under perturbation and observed epidemics taking place from 1999 to 2006. Our model was able to forecast absolute intensity and epidemic peak week several weeks earlier with reasonable reliability and depended on the method of forecasting-static or dynamic. CONCLUSIONS: Good predictive ability of influenza epidemics is critical for implementing mitigation strategies in an effective and timely manner. Through the process of predictive validation applied to a current complex simulation model of influenza spread, we provided users of the model (e.g. public-health officials and policy-makers with quantitative metrics and practical recommendations on mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. This methodology may be applied to other models of communicable infectious diseases to test and potentially improve

  17. Predictive Validation of an Influenza Spread Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hyder, Ayaz; Buckeridge, David L.; Leung, Brian

    2013-01-01

    Background Modeling plays a critical role in mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. Complex simulation models are currently at the forefront of evaluating optimal mitigation strategies at multiple scales and levels of organization. Given their evaluative role, these models remain limited in their ability to predict and forecast future epidemics leading some researchers and public-health practitioners to question their usefulness. The objective of this study is to evaluate the predictive ability of an existing complex simulation model of influenza spread. Methods and Findings We used extensive data on past epidemics to demonstrate the process of predictive validation. This involved generalizing an individual-based model for influenza spread and fitting it to laboratory-confirmed influenza infection data from a single observed epidemic (1998–1999). Next, we used the fitted model and modified two of its parameters based on data on real-world perturbations (vaccination coverage by age group and strain type). Simulating epidemics under these changes allowed us to estimate the deviation/error between the expected epidemic curve under perturbation and observed epidemics taking place from 1999 to 2006. Our model was able to forecast absolute intensity and epidemic peak week several weeks earlier with reasonable reliability and depended on the method of forecasting-static or dynamic. Conclusions Good predictive ability of influenza epidemics is critical for implementing mitigation strategies in an effective and timely manner. Through the process of predictive validation applied to a current complex simulation model of influenza spread, we provided users of the model (e.g. public-health officials and policy-makers) with quantitative metrics and practical recommendations on mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. This methodology may be applied to other models of communicable infectious diseases to test and potentially improve their predictive

  18. An efficient hybrid technique in RCS predictions of complex targets at high frequencies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Algar, María-Jesús; Lozano, Lorena; Moreno, Javier; González, Iván; Cátedra, Felipe

    2017-09-01

    Most computer codes in Radar Cross Section (RCS) prediction use Physical Optics (PO) and Physical theory of Diffraction (PTD) combined with Geometrical Optics (GO) and Geometrical Theory of Diffraction (GTD). The latter approaches are computationally cheaper and much more accurate for curved surfaces, but not applicable for the computation of the RCS of all surfaces of a complex object due to the presence of caustic problems in the analysis of concave surfaces or flat surfaces in the far field. The main contribution of this paper is the development of a hybrid method based on a new combination of two asymptotic techniques: GTD and PO, considering the advantages and avoiding the disadvantages of each of them. A very efficient and accurate method to analyze the RCS of complex structures at high frequencies is obtained with the new combination. The proposed new method has been validated comparing RCS results obtained for some simple cases using the proposed approach and RCS using the rigorous technique of Method of Moments (MoM). Some complex cases have been examined at high frequencies contrasting the results with PO. This study shows the accuracy and the efficiency of the hybrid method and its suitability for the computation of the RCS at really large and complex targets at high frequencies.

  19. Experiments, modeling and simulation of the magnetic behavior of inhomogeneously coated nickel/aluminum hybrid foams

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jung, A., E-mail: anne.jung@mx.uni-saarland.de [Universität des Saarlandes, Institute of Applied Mechanics, Campus A4 2, 66123 Saarbrücken (Germany); Klis, D., E-mail: d.klis@lte.uni-saarland.de [Universität des Saarlandes, Laboratory for Electromagnetic Theory, Campus C6 3, 66123 Saarbrücken (Germany); Goldschmidt, F., E-mail: f.goldschmidt@mx.uni-saarland.de [Universität des Saarlandes, Institute of Applied Mechanics, Campus A4 2, 66123 Saarbrücken (Germany)

    2015-03-15

    Open-cell metal foams are used as lightweight construction elements, energy absorbers or as support for catalytic coatings. Coating of open-cell metal foams is not only used for catalytic applications, but it leads also to tremendous increase in stiffness and energy absorption capacity. A non-line of sight coating technique for complex 3D structures is electrodeposition. Unfortunately, due to the 3D porosity and the related problems in mass transport limitation during the deposition, it is not possible to produce homogeneously coated foams. In the present contribution, we present a semi-non-destructive technique applicable to determine the coating thickness distribution of magnetic coatings by measuring the remanent magnetic field of coated foams. In order to have a closer look at the mass transport mechanism, a numerical model was developed to predict the field scans for different coating thickness distributions in the foams. For long deposition times the deposition reaches a steady state whereas a Helmholtz equation is sufficient to predict the coating thickness distribution. The applied current density could be identified as the main influencing parameter. Based on the developed model, it is possible to improve the electrodeposition process and hence the homogeneity in the coating thickness of coated metal foams. This leads to enhanced mechanical properties of the hybrid foams and contributes to better and resource-efficient energy absorbers and lightweight materials. - Highlights: • Production of hybrid foams by electrodeposition of nickel on open-cell metal foams. • Magnetic field scans for visualization of spatial coating thickness distribution. • Modeling of magnetic fields of inhomogeneously coated hybrid foams. • Investigation of mass transport limitation during coating by a Helmholtz equation. • Increasing coating homogeneity by use of low current densities and deposition rates.

  20. Accuracy of two optical chlorophyll meters in predicting chemical composition and in vitro ruminal organic matter degradability of Brachiaria hybrid, Megathyrsus maximus, and Paspalum atratum

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin P. Hughes

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to determine the accuracy and reliability of 2 optical chlorophyll meters: FieldScout CM 1,000 NDVI and Yara N-Tester, in predicting neutral detergent fibre (NDF, acid detergent fibre (ADF, acid detergent lignin (ADL, acid detergent insoluble nitrogen (ADIN and in vitro ruminal organic matter degradability (IVOMD of 3 tropical grasses. Optical chlorophyll measurements were taken at 3 stages (4, 8 and 12 weeks of regrowth in Brachiaria hybrid, and Megathyrsus maximus and at 6 and 12 weeks of regrowth in Paspalum atratum (cv. Ubon. Optical chlorophyll measurements showed the highest correlation (r = 0.57 to 0.85 with NDF concentration. The FieldScout CM 1,000 NDVI was better than the Yara N-Tester in predicting NDF (R2 = 0.70 and ADF (R2 = 0.79 concentrations in Brachiaria hybrid and NDF (R2 = 0.79 in M. maximus. Similarly, FieldScout CM 1,000 NDVI produced better estimates of 24 h IVOMD (IVOMD24h in Brachiaria hybrid (R2 = 0.81 and IVOMD48h in Brachiaria hybrid (R2 = 0.65 and M. maximus (R2 = 0.75. However, these prediction models had relatively low concordance correlation coefficients, i.e., CCC >0.90, but random errors were the main source of bias. It was, therefore, concluded that both optical chlorophyll meters were poor and unreliable predictors of ADIN and ADL concentrations. Overall, the FieldScout CM 1,000 NDVI shows potential to produce useful estimates of IVOMD24h and ADF in Brachiaria hybrid and IVOMD48h and NDF concentrations in M. maximus.

  1. Hybrid neuromusculoskeletal modeling to best track joint moments using a balance between muscle excitations derived from electromyograms and optimization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sartori, Massimo; Farina, Dario; Lloyd, David G

    2014-11-28

    Current electromyography (EMG)-driven musculoskeletal models are used to estimate joint moments measured from an individual׳s extremities during dynamic movement with varying levels of accuracy. The main benefit is the underlying musculoskeletal dynamics is simulated as a function of realistic, subject-specific, neural-excitation patterns provided by the EMG data. The main disadvantage is surface EMG cannot provide information on deeply located muscles. Furthermore, EMG data may be affected by cross-talk, recording and post-processing artifacts that could adversely influence the EMG׳s information content. This limits the EMG-driven model׳s ability to calculate the multi-muscle dynamics and the resulting joint moments about multiple degrees of freedom. We present a hybrid neuromusculoskeletal model that combines calibration, subject-specificity, EMG-driven and static optimization methods together. In this, the joint moment tracking errors are minimized by balancing the information content extracted from the experimental EMG data and from that generated by a static optimization method. Using movement data from five healthy male subjects during walking and running we explored the hybrid model׳s best configuration to minimally adjust recorded EMGs and predict missing EMGs while attaining the best tracking of joint moments. Minimally adjusted and predicted excitations substantially improved the experimental joint moment tracking accuracy than current EMG-driven models. The ability of the hybrid model to predict missing muscle EMGs was also examined. The proposed hybrid model enables muscle-driven simulations of human movement while enforcing physiological constraints on muscle excitation patterns. This might have important implications for studying pathological movement for which EMG recordings are limited.

  2. Prediction of thermal behaviors of an air-cooled lithium-ion battery system for hybrid electric vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Yong Seok; Kang, Dal Mo

    2014-12-01

    Thermal management has been one of the major issues in developing a lithium-ion (Li-ion) hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) battery system since the Li-ion battery is vulnerable to excessive heat load under abnormal or severe operational conditions. In this work, in order to design a suitable thermal management system, a simple modeling methodology describing thermal behavior of an air-cooled Li-ion battery system was proposed from vehicle components designer's point of view. A proposed mathematical model was constructed based on the battery's electrical and mechanical properties. Also, validation test results for the Li-ion battery system were presented. A pulse current duty and an adjusted US06 current cycle for a two-mode HEV system were used to validate the accuracy of the model prediction. Results showed that the present model can give good estimations for simulating convective heat transfer cooling during battery operation. The developed thermal model is useful in structuring the flow system and determining the appropriate cooling capacity for a specified design prerequisite of the battery system.

  3. Predicting state of charge of lead-acid batteries for hybrid electric vehicles by extended Kalman filter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vasebi, A.; Bathaee, S.M.T.; Partovibakhsh, M.

    2008-01-01

    This paper describes and introduces a new nonlinear predictor and a novel battery model for estimating the state of charge (SoC) of lead-acid batteries for hybrid electric vehicles (HEV). Many problems occur for a traditional SoC indicator, such as offset, drift and long term state divergence, therefore this paper proposes a technique based on the extended Kalman filter (EKF) in order to overcome these problems. The underlying dynamic behavior of each cell is modeled using two capacitors (bulk and surface) and three resistors (terminal, surface and end). The SoC is determined from the voltage present on the bulk capacitor. In this new model, the value of the surface capacitor is constant, whereas the value of the bulk capacitor is not. Although the structure of the model, with two constant capacitors, has been previously reported for lithium-ion cells, this model can also be valid and reliable for lead-acid cells when used in conjunction with an EKF to estimate SoC (with a little variation). Measurements using real-time road data are used to compare the performance of conventional internal resistance (R int ) based methods for estimating SoC with those predicted from the proposed state estimation schemes. The results show that the proposed method is superior to the more traditional techniques, with accuracy in estimating the SoC within 3%

  4. Short-term wind power prediction based on LSSVM–GSA model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yuan, Xiaohui; Chen, Chen; Yuan, Yanbin; Huang, Yuehua; Tan, Qingxiong

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • A hybrid model is developed for short-term wind power prediction. • The model is based on LSSVM and gravitational search algorithm. • Gravitational search algorithm is used to optimize parameters of LSSVM. • Effect of different kernel function of LSSVM on wind power prediction is discussed. • Comparative studies show that prediction accuracy of wind power is improved. - Abstract: Wind power forecasting can improve the economical and technical integration of wind energy into the existing electricity grid. Due to its intermittency and randomness, it is hard to forecast wind power accurately. For the purpose of utilizing wind power to the utmost extent, it is very important to make an accurate prediction of the output power of a wind farm under the premise of guaranteeing the security and the stability of the operation of the power system. In this paper, a hybrid model (LSSVM–GSA) based on the least squares support vector machine (LSSVM) and gravitational search algorithm (GSA) is proposed to forecast the short-term wind power. As the kernel function and the related parameters of the LSSVM have a great influence on the performance of the prediction model, the paper establishes LSSVM model based on different kernel functions for short-term wind power prediction. And then an optimal kernel function is determined and the parameters of the LSSVM model are optimized by using GSA. Compared with the Back Propagation (BP) neural network and support vector machine (SVM) model, the simulation results show that the hybrid LSSVM–GSA model based on exponential radial basis kernel function and GSA has higher accuracy for short-term wind power prediction. Therefore, the proposed LSSVM–GSA is a better model for short-term wind power prediction

  5. Stroke maximizing and high efficient hysteresis hybrid modeling for a rhombic piezoelectric actuator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shao, Shubao; Xu, Minglong; Zhang, Shuwen; Xie, Shilin

    2016-06-01

    Rhombic piezoelectric actuator (RPA), which employs a rhombic mechanism to amplify the small stroke of PZT stack, has been widely used in many micro-positioning machineries due to its remarkable properties such as high displacement resolution and compact structure. In order to achieve large actuation range along with high accuracy, the stroke maximizing and compensation for the hysteresis are two concerns in the use of RPA. However, existing maximization methods based on theoretical model can hardly accurately predict the maximum stroke of RPA because of approximation errors that are caused by the simplifications that must be made in the analysis. Moreover, despite the high hysteresis modeling accuracy of Preisach model, its modeling procedure is trivial and time-consuming since a large set of experimental data is required to determine the model parameters. In our research, to improve the accuracy of theoretical model of RPA, the approximation theory is employed in which the approximation errors can be compensated by two dimensionless coefficients. To simplify the hysteresis modeling procedure, a hybrid modeling method is proposed in which the parameters of Preisach model can be identified from only a small set of experimental data by using the combination of discrete Preisach model (DPM) with particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm. The proposed novel hybrid modeling method can not only model the hysteresis with considerable accuracy but also significantly simplified the modeling procedure. Finally, the inversion of hysteresis is introduced to compensate for the hysteresis non-linearity of RPA, and consequently a pseudo-linear system can be obtained.

  6. Finding Furfural Hydrogenation Catalysts via Predictive Modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strassberger, Zea; Mooijman, Maurice; Ruijter, Eelco; Alberts, Albert H; Maldonado, Ana G; Orru, Romano V A; Rothenberg, Gadi

    2010-09-10

    We combine multicomponent reactions, catalytic performance studies and predictive modelling to find transfer hydrogenation catalysts. An initial set of 18 ruthenium-carbene complexes were synthesized and screened in the transfer hydrogenation of furfural to furfurol with isopropyl alcohol complexes gave varied yields, from 62% up to >99.9%, with no obvious structure/activity correlations. Control experiments proved that the carbene ligand remains coordinated to the ruthenium centre throughout the reaction. Deuterium-labelling studies showed a secondary isotope effect (k(H):k(D)=1.5). Further mechanistic studies showed that this transfer hydrogenation follows the so-called monohydride pathway. Using these data, we built a predictive model for 13 of the catalysts, based on 2D and 3D molecular descriptors. We tested and validated the model using the remaining five catalysts (cross-validation, R(2)=0.913). Then, with this model, the conversion and selectivity were predicted for four completely new ruthenium-carbene complexes. These four catalysts were then synthesized and tested. The results were within 3% of the model's predictions, demonstrating the validity and value of predictive modelling in catalyst optimization.

  7. Short-term electricity price forecast based on the improved hybrid model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dong Yao; Wang Jianzhou; Jiang He; Wu Jie

    2011-01-01

    Highlights: → The proposed models can detach high volatility and daily seasonality of electricity price. → The improved hybrid forecast models can make full use of the advantages of individual models. → The proposed models create commendable improvements that are relatively satisfactorily for current research. → The proposed models do not require making complicated decisions about the explicit form. - Abstract: Half-hourly electricity price in power system are volatile, electricity price forecast is significant information which can help market managers and participants involved in electricity market to prepare their corresponding bidding strategies to maximize their benefits and utilities. However, the fluctuation of electricity price depends on the common effect of many factors and there is a very complicated random in its evolution process. Therefore, it is difficult to forecast half-hourly prices with traditional only one model for different behaviors of half-hourly prices. This paper proposes the improved forecasting model that detaches high volatility and daily seasonality for electricity price of New South Wales in Australia based on Empirical Mode Decomposition, Seasonal Adjustment and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average. The prediction errors are analyzed and compared with the ones obtained from the traditional Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model. The comparisons demonstrate that the proposed model can improve the prediction accuracy noticeably.

  8. Short-term electricity price forecast based on the improved hybrid model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dong Yao, E-mail: dongyao20051987@yahoo.cn [School of Mathematics and Statistics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000 (China); Wang Jianzhou, E-mail: wjz@lzu.edu.cn [School of Mathematics and Statistics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000 (China); Jiang He; Wu Jie [School of Mathematics and Statistics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000 (China)

    2011-08-15

    Highlights: {yields} The proposed models can detach high volatility and daily seasonality of electricity price. {yields} The improved hybrid forecast models can make full use of the advantages of individual models. {yields} The proposed models create commendable improvements that are relatively satisfactorily for current research. {yields} The proposed models do not require making complicated decisions about the explicit form. - Abstract: Half-hourly electricity price in power system are volatile, electricity price forecast is significant information which can help market managers and participants involved in electricity market to prepare their corresponding bidding strategies to maximize their benefits and utilities. However, the fluctuation of electricity price depends on the common effect of many factors and there is a very complicated random in its evolution process. Therefore, it is difficult to forecast half-hourly prices with traditional only one model for different behaviors of half-hourly prices. This paper proposes the improved forecasting model that detaches high volatility and daily seasonality for electricity price of New South Wales in Australia based on Empirical Mode Decomposition, Seasonal Adjustment and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average. The prediction errors are analyzed and compared with the ones obtained from the traditional Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model. The comparisons demonstrate that the proposed model can improve the prediction accuracy noticeably.

  9. Electromagnetic moments of hadrons and quarks in a hybrid model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gerasimov, S.B.

    1989-01-01

    Magnetic moments of baryons are analyzed on the basis of general sum rules following from the theory of broken symmetries and quark models including the relativistic effects and hadronic corrections due to the meson exchange currents. A new sum rule is proposed for the hyperon magnetic moments, which is in accord with the most precise new data and also with a theory of the electromagnetic ΛΣ 0 mixing. The numerical values of the quark electromagnetic moments are obtained within a hybrid model treating the pion cloud effects through the local coupling of the pion field with the constituent massive quarks. Possible sensitivity of the weak neutral current magnetic moments to violation of the Okubo-Zweig-Izuki rule is emphasized nand discussed. 39 refs.; 1 fig

  10. A Hybrid Multiple Criteria Decision Making Model for Supplier Selection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chung-Min Wu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The sustainable supplier selection would be the vital part in the management of a sustainable supply chain. In this study, a hybrid multiple criteria decision making (MCDM model is applied to select optimal supplier. The fuzzy Delphi method, which can lead to better criteria selection, is used to modify criteria. Considering the interdependence among the selection criteria, analytic network process (ANP is then used to obtain their weights. To avoid calculation and additional pairwise comparisons of ANP, a technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS is used to rank the alternatives. The use of a combination of the fuzzy Delphi method, ANP, and TOPSIS, proposing an MCDM model for supplier selection, and applying these to a real case are the unique features of this study.

  11. Corporate prediction models, ratios or regression analysis?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bijnen, E.J.; Wijn, M.F.C.M.

    1994-01-01

    The models developed in the literature with respect to the prediction of a company s failure are based on ratios. It has been shown before that these models should be rejected on theoretical grounds. Our study of industrial companies in the Netherlands shows that the ratios which are used in

  12. Predicting Protein Secondary Structure with Markov Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fischer, Paul; Larsen, Simon; Thomsen, Claus

    2004-01-01

    we are considering here, is to predict the secondary structure from the primary one. To this end we train a Markov model on training data and then use it to classify parts of unknown protein sequences as sheets, helices or coils. We show how to exploit the directional information contained...... in the Markov model for this task. Classifications that are purely based on statistical models might not always be biologically meaningful. We present combinatorial methods to incorporate biological background knowledge to enhance the prediction performance....

  13. Model training across multiple breeding cycles significantly improves genomic prediction accuracy in rye (Secale cereale L.).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Auinger, Hans-Jürgen; Schönleben, Manfred; Lehermeier, Christina; Schmidt, Malthe; Korzun, Viktor; Geiger, Hartwig H; Piepho, Hans-Peter; Gordillo, Andres; Wilde, Peer; Bauer, Eva; Schön, Chris-Carolin

    2016-11-01

    Genomic prediction accuracy can be significantly increased by model calibration across multiple breeding cycles as long as selection cycles are connected by common ancestors. In hybrid rye breeding, application of genome-based prediction is expected to increase selection gain because of long selection cycles in population improvement and development of hybrid components. Essentially two prediction scenarios arise: (1) prediction of the genetic value of lines from the same breeding cycle in which model training is performed and (2) prediction of lines from subsequent cycles. It is the latter from which a reduction in cycle length and consequently the strongest impact on selection gain is expected. We empirically investigated genome-based prediction of grain yield, plant height and thousand kernel weight within and across four selection cycles of a hybrid rye breeding program. Prediction performance was assessed using genomic and pedigree-based best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP and PBLUP). A total of 1040 S 2 lines were genotyped with 16 k SNPs and each year testcrosses of 260 S 2 lines were phenotyped in seven or eight locations. The performance gap between GBLUP and PBLUP increased significantly for all traits when model calibration was performed on aggregated data from several cycles. Prediction accuracies obtained from cross-validation were in the order of 0.70 for all traits when data from all cycles (N CS  = 832) were used for model training and exceeded within-cycle accuracies in all cases. As long as selection cycles are connected by a sufficient number of common ancestors and prediction accuracy has not reached a plateau when increasing sample size, aggregating data from several preceding cycles is recommended for predicting genetic values in subsequent cycles despite decreasing relatedness over time.

  14. A Novel Hybrid Data-Driven Model for Daily Land Surface Temperature Forecasting Using Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network Based on Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xike Zhang

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Daily land surface temperature (LST forecasting is of great significance for application in climate-related, agricultural, eco-environmental, or industrial studies. Hybrid data-driven prediction models using Ensemble Empirical Mode Composition (EEMD coupled with Machine Learning (ML algorithms are useful for achieving these purposes because they can reduce the difficulty of modeling, require less history data, are easy to develop, and are less complex than physical models. In this article, a computationally simple, less data-intensive, fast and efficient novel hybrid data-driven model called the EEMD Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM neural network, namely EEMD-LSTM, is proposed to reduce the difficulty of modeling and to improve prediction accuracy. The daily LST data series from the Mapoling and Zhijaing stations in the Dongting Lake basin, central south China, from 1 January 2014 to 31 December 2016 is used as a case study. The EEMD is firstly employed to decompose the original daily LST data series into many Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs and a single residue item. Then, the Partial Autocorrelation Function (PACF is used to obtain the number of input data sample points for LSTM models. Next, the LSTM models are constructed to predict the decompositions. All the predicted results of the decompositions are aggregated as the final daily LST. Finally, the prediction